WorldWideScience

Sample records for conditional survival estimates

  1. Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2017-03-01

    Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  2. Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

    2010-10-01

    Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects.

  3. Working Conditions and Factory Survival: Evidence from Better Factories Cambodia

    OpenAIRE

    Robertson, Raymond; Brown, Drusilla; Dehejia, Rajeev

    2016-01-01

    A large and growing literature has identified several conditions, including exporting, that contribute to plant survival. A prevailing sentiment suggests that anti-sweatshop activity against plants in developing countries adds the risk of making survival more difficult by imposing external constraints that may interfere with optimizing behavior. Using a relatively new plant-level panel dataset from Cambodia, this paper applies survival analysis to estimate the relationship between changes in ...

  4. Conditional Melanoma Cancer Survival in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray M. Merrill

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Beyond relative survival, which indicates the likelihood that patients will not die from causes associated with their cancer, conditional relative survival probabilities provide further useful prognostic information to cancer patients, tailored to the time already survived from diagnosis. This study presents conditional relative survival for melanoma patients in the United States, diagnosed during 2000–2008 and followed through 2012. Analyses are based on 62,803 male and 50,261 female cases in population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute. Five-year relative survival estimates are presented for melanoma patients who have already survived one, two, three, four, or five years after the initial diagnosis. Five- and ten-year relative survival decreases with age, stage at diagnosis, and is lower among males, Blacks, and Hispanics. Five-year conditional relative survival improves with each year already survived. The potential for improvement in five-year conditional relative survival is greatest for older age, males, Blacks, Hispanics, and in later staged cases. For local disease, five-year conditional relative survival was significantly lower in ages greater than 65 years and in Blacks. It was significantly higher in females, non-Hispanics, and married individuals. Age had a greater inverse relationship with five-year survival in later staged disease. A similar result occurred for females and married individuals. In contrast, non-Hispanics had better five-year survival if diagnosed with local or regional disease, but not distant disease.

  5. Estimating haplotype effects for survival data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas; Martinussen, Torben; Silver, J

    2010-01-01

    Genetic association studies often investigate the effect of haplotypes on an outcome of interest. Haplotypes are not observed directly, and this complicates the inclusion of such effects in survival models. We describe a new estimating equations approach for Cox's regression model to assess haplo...

  6. Conditional survival of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Michael Boe; Pedersen, Niels Tinggaard; Christensen, Bjarne E

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prognosis of lymphoma patients is usually estimated at the time of diagnosis and the estimates are guided by the International Prognostic Index (IPI). However, conditional survival estimates are more informative clinically, as they consider those patients only who have already survive...... survival probability provides more accurate prognostic information than the conventional survival rate estimated from the time of diagnosis.......BACKGROUND: Prognosis of lymphoma patients is usually estimated at the time of diagnosis and the estimates are guided by the International Prognostic Index (IPI). However, conditional survival estimates are more informative clinically, as they consider those patients only who have already survived...... a period of time after treatment. Conditional survival data have not been reported for lymphoma patients. METHODS: Conditional survival was estimated for 1209 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) from the population-based LYFO registry of the Danish Lymphoma Group. The Kaplan-Meier method...

  7. Market conditions and hedge fund survival

    OpenAIRE

    Mark A. Carlson; Jason Steinman

    2008-01-01

    As the hedge fund industry has grown, there has been increased concern that, during sharp market moves, hedge fund failures could exacerbate the deterioration in financial conditions and deepen a crisis. However, there has not been much formal analysis regarding the impact of financial market conditions on hedge fund survival. To help fill this gap, this paper examines the relationship between financial market conditions and the likelihood of hedge fund failure after controlling for performan...

  8. Instrumental variable estimation in a survival context

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Walter, Stefan; Vansteelandt, Stijn

    2015-01-01

    for regression analysis in a survival context, primarily under an additive hazards model, for which we describe 2 simple methods for estimating causal effects. The first method is a straightforward 2-stage regression approach analogous to 2-stage least squares commonly used for IV analysis in linear regression....... The IV approach is very well developed in the context of linear regression and also for certain generalized linear models with a nonlinear link function. However, IV methods are not as well developed for regression analysis with a censored survival outcome. In this article, we develop the IV approach....... In this approach, the fitted value from a first-stage regression of the exposure on the IV is entered in place of the exposure in the second-stage hazard model to recover a valid estimate of the treatment effect of interest. The second method is a so-called control function approach, which entails adding...

  9. Conditional survival is greater than overall survival at diagnosis in patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Benjamin J; Lynch, Charles F; Buckwalter, Joseph A

    2013-11-01

    Conditional survival is a measure of the risk of mortality given that a patient has survived a defined period of time. These estimates are clinically helpful, but have not been reported previously for osteosarcoma or Ewing's sarcoma. We determined the conditional survival of patients with osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma given survival of 1 or more years. We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program database to investigate cases of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma in patients younger than 40 years from 1973 to 2009. The SEER Program is managed by the National Cancer Institute and provides survival data gathered from population-based cancer registries. We used an actuarial life table analysis to determine any cancer cause-specific 5-year survival estimates conditional on 1 to 5 years of survival after diagnosis. We performed a similar analysis to determine 20-year survival from the time of diagnosis. The estimated 5-year survival improved each year after diagnosis. For local/regional osteosarcoma, the 5-year survival improved from 74.8% at baseline to 91.4% at 5 years-meaning that if a patient with localized osteosarcoma lives for 5 years, the chance of living for another 5 years is 91.4%. Similarly, the 5-year survivals for local/regional Ewing's sarcoma improved from 72.9% at baseline to 92.5% at 5 years, for metastatic osteosarcoma 35.5% at baseline to 85.4% at 5 years, and for metastatic Ewing's sarcoma 31.7% at baseline to 83.6% at 5 years. The likelihood of 20-year cause-specific survival from the time of diagnosis in osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma was almost 90% or greater after 10 years of survival, suggesting that while most patients will remain disease-free indefinitely, some experience cancer-related complications years after presumed eradication. The 5-year survival estimates of osteosarcoma and Ewing's sarcoma improve with each additional year of patient survival. Knowledge of a changing risk profile is useful in counseling

  10. Estimating haplotype effects for survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scheike, Thomas H; Martinussen, Torben; Silver, Jeremy D

    2010-09-01

    Genetic association studies often investigate the effect of haplotypes on an outcome of interest. Haplotypes are not observed directly, and this complicates the inclusion of such effects in survival models. We describe a new estimating equations approach for Cox's regression model to assess haplotype effects for survival data. These estimating equations are simple to implement and avoid the use of the EM algorithm, which may be slow in the context of the semiparametric Cox model with incomplete covariate information. These estimating equations also lead to easily computable, direct estimators of standard errors, and thus overcome some of the difficulty in obtaining variance estimators based on the EM algorithm in this setting. We also develop an easily implemented goodness-of-fit procedure for Cox's regression model including haplotype effects. Finally, we apply the procedures presented in this article to investigate possible haplotype effects of the PAF-receptor on cardiovascular events in patients with coronary artery disease, and compare our results to those based on the EM algorithm. © 2009, The International Biometric Society.

  11. Conditional survival of cancer patients: an Australian perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xue

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimated conditional survival for cancer patients diagnosed at different ages and disease stage provides important information for cancer patients and clinicians in planning follow-up, surveillance and ongoing management. Methods Using population-based cancer registry data for New South Wales Australia, we estimated conditional 5-year relative survival for 11 major cancers diagnosed 1972–2006 by time since diagnosis and age and stage at diagnosis. Results 193,182 cases were included, with the most common cancers being prostate (39,851, female breast (36,585 and colorectal (35,455. Five-year relative survival tended to increase with increasing years already survived and improvement was greatest for cancers with poor prognosis at diagnosis (lung or pancreas and for those with advanced stage or older age at diagnosis. After surviving 10 years, conditional 5-year survival was over 95% for 6 localised, 6 regional, 3 distant and 3 unknown stage cancers. For the remaining patient groups, conditional 5-year survival ranged from 74% (for distant stage bladder cancer to 94% (for 4 cancers at different stages, indicating that they continue to have excess mortality 10–15 years after diagnosis. Conclusion These data provide important information for cancer patients, based on age and stage at diagnosis, as they continue on their cancer journey. This information may also be used by clinicians as a tool to make more evidence-based decisions regarding follow-up, surveillance, or ongoing management according to patients' changing survival expectations over time.

  12. CONDITIONS FOR EXACT CAVALIERI ESTIMATION

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    Mónica Tinajero-Bravo

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Exact Cavalieri estimation amounts to zero variance estimation of an integral with systematic observations along a sampling axis. A sufficient condition is given, both in the continuous and the discrete cases, for exact Cavalieri sampling. The conclusions suggest improvements on the current stereological application of fractionator-type sampling.

  13. Attributing death to cancer: cause-specific survival estimation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathew A

    2002-10-01

    Full Text Available Cancer survival estimation is an important part of assessing the overall strength of cancer care in a region. Generally, the death of a patient is taken as the end point in estimation of overall survival. When calculating the overall survival, the cause of death is not taken into account. With increasing demand for better survival of cancer patients it is important for clinicians and researchers to know about survival statistics due to disease of interest, i.e. net survival. It is also important to choose the best method for estimating net survival. Increase in the use of computer programmes has made it possible to carry out statistical analysis without guidance from a bio-statistician. This is of prime importance in third- world countries as there are a few trained bio-statisticians to guide clinicians and researchers. The present communication describes current methods used to estimate net survival such as cause-specific survival and relative survival. The limitation of estimation of cause-specific survival particularly in India and the usefulness of relative survival are discussed. The various sources for estimating cancer survival are also discussed. As survival-estimates are to be projected on to the population at large, it becomes important to measure the variation of the estimates, and thus confidence intervals are used. Rothman′s confidence interval gives the most satisfactory result for survival estimate.

  14. Condition Number Regularized Covariance Estimation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Joong-Ho; Lim, Johan; Kim, Seung-Jean; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2013-06-01

    Estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices is known to be a difficult problem, has many applications, and is of current interest to the larger statistics community. In many applications including so-called the "large p small n " setting, the estimate of the covariance matrix is required to be not only invertible, but also well-conditioned. Although many regularization schemes attempt to do this, none of them address the ill-conditioning problem directly. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood approach, with the direct goal of obtaining a well-conditioned estimator. No sparsity assumption on either the covariance matrix or its inverse are are imposed, thus making our procedure more widely applicable. We demonstrate that the proposed regularization scheme is computationally efficient, yields a type of Steinian shrinkage estimator, and has a natural Bayesian interpretation. We investigate the theoretical properties of the regularized covariance estimator comprehensively, including its regularization path, and proceed to develop an approach that adaptively determines the level of regularization that is required. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the regularized estimator in decision-theoretic comparisons and in the financial portfolio optimization setting. The proposed approach has desirable properties, and can serve as a competitive procedure, especially when the sample size is small and when a well-conditioned estimator is required.

  15. Condition Number Regularized Covariance Estimation*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Won, Joong-Ho; Lim, Johan; Kim, Seung-Jean; Rajaratnam, Bala

    2012-01-01

    Estimation of high-dimensional covariance matrices is known to be a difficult problem, has many applications, and is of current interest to the larger statistics community. In many applications including so-called the “large p small n” setting, the estimate of the covariance matrix is required to be not only invertible, but also well-conditioned. Although many regularization schemes attempt to do this, none of them address the ill-conditioning problem directly. In this paper, we propose a maximum likelihood approach, with the direct goal of obtaining a well-conditioned estimator. No sparsity assumption on either the covariance matrix or its inverse are are imposed, thus making our procedure more widely applicable. We demonstrate that the proposed regularization scheme is computationally efficient, yields a type of Steinian shrinkage estimator, and has a natural Bayesian interpretation. We investigate the theoretical properties of the regularized covariance estimator comprehensively, including its regularization path, and proceed to develop an approach that adaptively determines the level of regularization that is required. Finally, we demonstrate the performance of the regularized estimator in decision-theoretic comparisons and in the financial portfolio optimization setting. The proposed approach has desirable properties, and can serve as a competitive procedure, especially when the sample size is small and when a well-conditioned estimator is required. PMID:23730197

  16. Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

    2015-07-01

    Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Halophila stipulacea: survival under adverse conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morton, C. R., Jr.; Primack, A. G.; Wyllie-Echeverria, S.

    2016-02-01

    Halophila stipulacea is an invasive seagrass species originally native to the Indian Ocean. It invaded the Mediterranean Sea shortly after the opening of the Suez Canal, and has recently been found in the Caribbean. It has been suggested that it arrived in the Mediterranean attached to small pleasure craft, fishing craft, or small cargo vessels. This research examines the feasibility of these methods of transport and the possibility that arrived transported by ocean currents. To investigate potential transport vectors, we collected rooted samples of H. stipulacae from Brewers Bay on the island of Saint Thomas, USVI, and exposed them to conditions that would be experienced under each alternative method of transport. The health of the samples was monitored using a FLOURPEN FP 100 portable fluorometer. Rhizomes, and associated leaf pairs declined rapidly when exposed to air, submersed in freshwater, or kept damp in a towel soaked in seawater, but survived for more than 5 weeks when left floating in a bucket submersed in a seawater tank. Water temperature ranged between 27C and 30C during the experiment. This suggests that it might be possible for H. stipulacae to cross the Atlantic aided by currents.

  18. Efficient estimation of semiparametric copula models for bivariate survival data

    KAUST Repository

    Cheng, Guang

    2014-01-01

    A semiparametric copula model for bivariate survival data is characterized by a parametric copula model of dependence and nonparametric models of two marginal survival functions. Efficient estimation for the semiparametric copula model has been recently studied for the complete data case. When the survival data are censored, semiparametric efficient estimation has only been considered for some specific copula models such as the Gaussian copulas. In this paper, we obtain the semiparametric efficiency bound and efficient estimation for general semiparametric copula models for possibly censored data. We construct an approximate maximum likelihood estimator by approximating the log baseline hazard functions with spline functions. We show that our estimates of the copula dependence parameter and the survival functions are asymptotically normal and efficient. Simple consistent covariance estimators are also provided. Numerical results are used to illustrate the finite sample performance of the proposed estimators. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  19. Piecewise Geometric Estimation of a Survival Function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-04-01

    Langberg (1982). One of the by- products of the estimation process is an estimate of the failure rate function: here, another issue is raised. It is evident...envisaged as the infinite product probability space that may be constructed in the usual way from the sequence of probability spaces corresponding to the...received 6 MP (a mercaptopurine used in the treatment of leukemia). The ordered remis- sion times in weeks are: 6, 6, 6, 6+, 7, 9+, 10, 10+, 11+, 13, 16

  20. Survival estimates - Survival estimates for the passage of juvenile salmonids through Snake and Columbia River dams and reservoirs

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This BPA-funded study provides estimates of smolt survival and travel time through individual reaches and reaches combined in the Snake and Columbia Rivers...

  1. Reverse survival method of fertility estimation: An evaluation

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    Thomas Spoorenberg

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: For the most part, demographers have relied on the ever-growing body of sample surveys collecting full birth history to derive total fertility estimates in less statistically developed countries. Yet alternative methods of fertility estimation can return very consistent total fertility estimates by using only basic demographic information. Objective: This paper evaluates the consistency and sensitivity of the reverse survival method -- a fertility estimation method based on population data by age and sex collected in one census or a single-round survey. Methods: A simulated population was first projected over 15 years using a set of fertility and mortality age and sex patterns. The projected population was then reverse survived using the Excel template FE_reverse_4.xlsx, provided with Timæus and Moultrie (2012. Reverse survival fertility estimates were then compared for consistency to the total fertility rates used to project the population. The sensitivity was assessed by introducing a series of distortions in the projection of the population and comparing the difference implied in the resulting fertility estimates. Results: The reverse survival method produces total fertility estimates that are very consistent and hardly affected by erroneous assumptions on the age distribution of fertility or by the use of incorrect mortality levels, trends, and age patterns. The quality of the age and sex population data that is 'reverse survived' determines the consistency of the estimates. The contribution of the method for the estimation of past and present trends in total fertility is illustrated through its application to the population data of five countries characterized by distinct fertility levels and data quality issues. Conclusions: Notwithstanding its simplicity, the reverse survival method of fertility estimation has seldom been applied. The method can be applied to a large body of existing and easily available population data

  2. Challenges in the estimation of Net SURvival: The CENSUR working survival group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, R

    2016-10-01

    Net survival, the survival probability that would be observed, in a hypothetical world, where the cancer of interest would be the only possible cause of death, is a key indicator in population-based cancer studies. Accounting for mortality due to other causes, it allows cross-country comparisons or trends analysis and provides a useful indicator for public health decision-making. The objective of this study was to show how the creation and formalization of a network comprising established research teams, which already had substantial and complementary experience in both cancer survival analysis and methodological development, make it possible to meet challenges and thus provide more adequate tools, to improve the quality and the comparability of cancer survival data, and to promote methodological transfers in areas of emerging interest. The Challenges in the Estimation of Net SURvival (CENSUR) working survival group is composed of international researchers highly skilled in biostatistics, methodology, and epidemiology, from different research organizations in France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Slovenia, and Canada, and involved in French (FRANCIM) and European (EUROCARE) cancer registry networks. The expected advantages are an interdisciplinary, international, synergistic network capable of addressing problems in public health, for decision-makers at different levels; tools for those in charge of net survival analyses; a common methodology that makes unbiased cross-national comparisons of cancer survival feasible; transfer of methods for net survival estimations to other specific applications (clinical research, occupational epidemiology); and dissemination of results during an international training course. The formalization of the international CENSUR working survival group was motivated by a need felt by scientists conducting population-based cancer research to discuss, develop, and monitor implementation of a common methodology to analyze net survival in order

  3. Incorporating movement patterns to improve survival estimates for juvenile bull trout

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowerman, Tracy; Budy, Phaedra

    2012-01-01

    Populations of many fish species are sensitive to changes in vital rates during early life stages, but our understanding of the factors affecting growth, survival, and movement patterns is often extremely limited for juvenile fish. These critical information gaps are particularly evident for bull trout Salvelinus confluentus, a threatened Pacific Northwest char. We combined several active and passive mark–recapture and resight techniques to assess migration rates and estimate survival for juvenile bull trout (70–170 mm total length). We evaluated the relative performance of multiple survival estimation techniques by comparing results from a common Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model, the less widely used Barker model, and a simple return rate (an index of survival). Juvenile bull trout of all sizes emigrated from their natal habitat throughout the year, and thereafter migrated up to 50 km downstream. With the CJS model, high emigration rates led to an extreme underestimate of apparent survival, a combined estimate of site fidelity and survival. In contrast, the Barker model, which allows survival and emigration to be modeled as separate parameters, produced estimates of survival that were much less biased than the return rate. Estimates of age-class-specific annual survival from the Barker model based on all available data were 0.218±0.028 (estimate±SE) for age-1 bull trout and 0.231±0.065 for age-2 bull trout. This research demonstrates the importance of incorporating movement patterns into survival analyses, and we provide one of the first field-based estimates of juvenile bull trout annual survival in relatively pristine rearing conditions. These estimates can provide a baseline for comparison with future studies in more impacted systems and will help managers develop reliable stage-structured population models to evaluate future recovery strategies.

  4. Weighted conditional least-squares estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Booth, J.G.

    1987-01-01

    A two-stage estimation procedure is proposed that generalizes the concept of conditional least squares. The method is instead based upon the minimization of a weighted sum of squares, where the weights are inverses of estimated conditional variance terms. Some general conditions are given under which the estimators are consistent and jointly asymptotically normal. More specific details are given for ergodic Markov processes with stationary transition probabilities. A comparison is made with the ordinary conditional least-squares estimators for two simple branching processes with immigration. The relationship between weighted conditional least squares and other, more well-known, estimators is also investigated. In particular, it is shown that in many cases estimated generalized least-squares estimators can be obtained using the weighted conditional least-squares approach. Applications to stochastic compartmental models, and linear models with nested error structures are considered

  5. Estimating the joint survival probabilities of married individuals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sanders, Lisanne; Melenberg, Bertrand

    We estimate the joint survival probability of spouses using a large random sample drawn from a Dutch census. As benchmarks we use two bivariate Weibull models. We consider more flexible models, using a semi-nonparametric approach, by extending the independent Weibull distribution using squared

  6. Estimation of Conditional Quantile using Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

    1999-01-01

    The problem of estimating conditional quantiles using neural networks is investigated here. A basic structure is developed using the methodology of kernel estimation, and a theory guaranteeing con-sistency on a mild set of assumptions is provided. The constructed structure constitutes a basis...... for the design of a variety of different neural networks, some of which are considered in detail. The task of estimating conditional quantiles is related to Bayes point estimation whereby a broad range of applications within engineering, economics and management can be suggested. Numerical results illustrating...... the capabilities of the elaborated neural network are also given....

  7. [Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Llorca, Javier; Delgado-Rodríguez, Miguel

    2004-01-01

    To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection). Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  8. Survival chance in papillary thyroid cancer in Hungary: individual survival probability estimation using the Markov method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esik, Olga; Tusnady, Gabor; Daubner, Kornel; Nemeth, Gyoergy; Fuezy, Marton; Szentirmay, Zoltan

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The typically benign, but occasionally rapidly fatal clinical course of papillary thyroid cancer has raised the need for individual survival probability estimation, to tailor the treatment strategy exclusively to a given patient. Materials and methods: A retrospective study was performed on 400 papillary thyroid cancer patients with a median follow-up time of 7.1 years to establish a clinical database for uni- and multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors related to survival (Kaplan-Meier product limit method and Cox regression). For a more precise prognosis estimation, the effect of the most important clinical events were then investigated on the basis of a Markov renewal model. The basic concept of this approach is that each patient has an individual disease course which (besides the initial clinical categories) is affected by special events, e.g. internal covariates (local/regional/distant relapses). On the supposition that these events and the cause-specific death are influenced by the same biological processes, the parameters of transient survival probability characterizing the speed of the course of the disease for each clinical event and their sequence were determined. The individual survival curves for each patient were calculated by using these parameters and the independent significant clinical variables selected from multivariate studies, summation of which resulted in a mean cause-specific survival function valid for the entire group. On the basis of this Markov model, prediction of the cause-specific survival probability is possible for extrastudy cases, if it is supposed that the clinical events occur within new patients in the same manner and with the similar probability as within the study population. Results: The patient's age, a distant metastasis at presentation, the extent of the surgical intervention, the primary tumor size and extent (pT), the external irradiation dosage and the degree of TSH suppression proved to be

  9. Candida albicans survival and biofilm formation under starvation conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ning, Y; Hu, X; Ling, J; Du, Y; Liu, J; Liu, H; Peng, Z

    2013-01-01

    To investigate the survival and biofilm formation capacity of Candida albicans in starvation and under anaerobic conditions. Candida albicans growth and survival were monitored in vitro for up to 8 months. Fungal suspensions from late exponential, stationary and starvation phases were incubated on human dentine, polystyrene and glass slides. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to observe the process of biofilm formation. 2,3-bis(2-Methoxy-4-nitro-5-sulfophenyl)-2H-tetrazolium-5-carboxyanilide inner salt (XTT) reduction assay was performed to quantify the biofilm formation capability, and confocal laser scanning microscopy (CLSM) was used to study and make semi-quantitative comparisons of the ultrastructure of biofilms formed on human dentine. 'XTT bioactivity' and 'COMSTAT results' were analysed by two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and one-way ANOVA, respectively. Candida albicans survived for over six months. SEM demonstrated that starving C. albicans produced mature biofilms on different substrata. C. albicans of the same growth phase incubated on human dentine displayed significantly higher biofilm formation capability than on polystyrene or glass slides (P roughness coefficient and surface/volume ratio (P < 0.05). Candida albicans cells can survive and form biofilms in anaerobic and nutrient-limited conditions and may pose a treatment challenge. © 2012 International Endodontic Journal.

  10. SURVIVAL ESTIMATES OF BYCATCH INDIVIDUALS DISCARDED FROM BIVALVE DREDGES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Leitão

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The fate of released bycatch is an issue of great interest for fisheries research and management. Survival experiments were carried out to assess the survival capacity of animals damaged and discarded during clam dredging operations. Three common bycatch species, two fish (Trachinus vipera; Dicologlossa cuneata and one crab (Polybius henslowii, were collected during the sorting of catches from a commercial dredging boat. An arbitrary score scale was used to quantify the type and extent of damage to the organisms. Onboard, damaged individuals were placed in tanks containing seawater which were subsequently transferred to the laboratory. Survival experiments were conducted during the subsequent 48h. D. cuneata exhibited the lowest mortality after 48h (54%, followed by P. henslowii (65% and T. vipera (81%. Despite the magnitude of the percentage mortalities determined, the average number of individuals estimated to die during a 15 minutes tow (standard commercial fishing time was relatively small: 1.2, 3.24 and 11 for D. cuneata, T. vipera and P. henslowii, respectively. Nevertheless, when these figures are extrapolated to cover all the dredging fleet the impact of this practice on the populations of the species studied can be significant, particulary for D. cuneata.

  11. Conditional shape models for cardiac motion estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Metz, Coert; Baka, Nora; Kirisli, Hortense

    2010-01-01

    We propose a conditional statistical shape model to predict patient specific cardiac motion from the 3D end-diastolic CTA scan. The model is built from 4D CTA sequences by combining atlas based segmentation and 4D registration. Cardiac motion estimation is, for example, relevant in the dynamic...

  12. Estimating true instead of apparent survival using spatial Cormack-Jolly-Seber models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    Survival is often estimated from capture–recapture data using Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) models, where mortality and emigration cannot be distinguished, and the estimated apparent survival probability is the product of the probabilities of true survival and of study area fidelity. Consequently, apparent survival is lower than true survival unless study area fidelity equals one. Underestimation of true survival from capture–recapture data is a main limitation of the method.

  13. Survival benefits of remote ischemic conditioning in sepsis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, Bellal; Khalil, Mazhar; Hashmi, Ammar; Hecker, Louise; Kulvatunyou, Narong; Tang, Andrew; Friese, Randall S; Rhee, Peter

    2017-06-01

    Sepsis remains the leading cause of death in the surgical intensive care unit. Prior studies have demonstrated a survival benefit of remote ischemic conditioning (RIC) in many disease states. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of RIC on survival in sepsis in an animal model and to assess alterations in inflammatory biochemical profiles. We hypothesized that RIC alters inflammatory biochemical profiles resulting in decreased mortality in a septic mouse model. Eight to 12 week C57BL/6 mice received intra-peritoneal injection of 12.5-mg/kg lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Septic animals in the experimental group underwent RIC at 0, 2, and 6 h after LPS by surgical exploration and alternate clamping of the femoral artery. Six 4-min cycles of ischemia-reperfusion were performed. Primary outcome was survival at 5-d after LPS injection. Secondary outcome was to assess the following serum cytokine levels: interferon-γ (IFN-γ), interleukin (IL)-10, IL-1β, and tumor necrosis factoralpha (TNFα) at the baseline before LPS injection, 0 hour after LPS injection, and at 2, 4, 24 hours after induction of sepsis (RIC was performed at 2 h after LPS injection). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and log-rank test were used. ANOVA test was used to compare cytokine measurements. We performed experiments on 44 mice: 14 sham and 30 RIC mice (10 at each time point). Overall survival was higher in the experimental group compared to the sham group (57% versus 21%; P = 0.02), with the highest survival rate observed in the 2-hour post-RIC group (70%). On Kaplan-Meier analysis, 2-h post-RIC group had increased survival at 5 days after LPS (P = 0.04) with hazard ratio of 0.3 (95% confidence interval = 0.09-0.98). In the RIC group, serum concentrations of IFN-γ, IL-10, IL-1β, and TNFα peaked at 2 h after LPS and then decreased significantly over 24 hours (P sepsis and has the potential for implementation in the clinical practice. Early implementation of RIC may play an

  14. Survival of a microbial soil community under Martian conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, A. A.; Noernberg, P.; Merrison, J.; Lomstein, B. Aa.; Finster, K. W.

    2003-04-01

    Because of the similarities between Earth and Mars early history the hypothesis was forwarded that Mars is a site where extraterrestrial life might have and/or may still occur(red). Sample-return missions are planned by NASA and ESA to test this hypothesis. The enormous economic costs and the logistic challenges of these missions make earth-based model facilities inevitable. The Mars simulation system at University of Aarhus, Denmark allows microbiological experiments under Mars analogue conditions. Thus detailed studies on the effect of Mars environmental conditions on the survival and the activity of a natural microbial soil community were carried out. Changes in the soil community were determined with a suite of different approaches: 1) total microbial respiration activity was investigated with 14C-glucose, 2) the physiological profile was investigated by the EcoLog-system, 3) colony forming units were determined by plate counts and 4) the microbial diversity on the molecular level was accessed with Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoresis. The simulation experiments showed that a part of the bacterial community survived Martian conditions corresponding to 9 Sol. These and future simulation experiments will contribute to our understanding of the possibility for extraterrestrial and terrestrial life on Mars.

  15. Empirical methods for estimating future climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1990-01-01

    Applying the empirical approach permits the derivation of estimates of the future climate that are nearly independent of conclusions based on theoretical (model) estimates. This creates an opportunity to compare these results with those derived from the model simulations of the forthcoming changes in climate, thus increasing confidence in areas of agreement and focusing research attention on areas of disagreements. The premise underlying this approach for predicting anthropogenic climate change is based on associating the conditions of the climatic optimums of the Holocene, Eemian, and Pliocene with corresponding stages of the projected increase of mean global surface air temperature. Provided that certain assumptions are fulfilled in matching the value of the increased mean temperature for a certain epoch with the model-projected change in global mean temperature in the future, the empirical approach suggests that relationships leading to the regional variations in air temperature and other meteorological elements could be deduced and interpreted based on use of empirical data describing climatic conditions for past warm epochs. Considerable care must be taken, of course, in making use of these spatial relationships, especially in accounting for possible large-scale differences that might, in some cases, result from different factors contributing to past climate changes than future changes and, in other cases, might result from the possible influences of changes in orography and geography on regional climatic conditions over time

  16. Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiser, Emily L.; Lanctot, Richard B.; Brown, Stephen C.; Gates, H. River; Bentzen, Rebecca L.; Bêty, Joël; Boldenow, Megan L.; English, Willow B.; Franks, Samantha E.; Koloski, Laura; Kwon, Eunbi; Lamarre, Jean-Francois; Lank, David B.; Liebezeit, Joseph R.; McKinnon, Laura; Nol, Erica; Rausch, Jennie; Saalfeld, Sarah T.; Senner, Nathan R.; Ward, David H.; Woodard, Paul F.; Sandercock, Brett K.

    2018-01-01

    Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factors is a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicit Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6 species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects of environmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in the spatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus true survival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher than previously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S = 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species. However, survival was lower for the arcticolasubspecies of Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola; S = 0.54), our only study taxon that migrates through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. Like other species that use that flyway, arcticola Dunlin could be experiencing unsustainably low survival rates as a result of loss of migratory stopover habitat. Survival rates of our study species were not affected by timing of snowmelt or summer temperature, and only 2 species showed minor variation among study sites. Furthermore, although previous reproductive success, predator abundance, and the availability of alternative prey each affected survival of one species, no factors broadly affected survival across species. Overall, our findings of few effects of environmental or ecological variables suggest that annual survival rates of adult shorebirds are generally robust to conditions at Arctic breeding sites. Instead, conditions at migratory stopovers or overwintering sites might be driving adult survival rates and should be the

  17. Molecular Mechanisms of Survival Strategies in Extreme Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Federica Migliardo

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Today, one of the major challenges in biophysics is to disclose the molecular mechanisms underlying biological processes. In such a frame, the understanding of the survival strategies in extreme conditions received a lot of attention both from the scientific and applicative points of view. Since nature provides precious suggestions to be applied for improving the quality of life, extremophiles are considered as useful model-systems. The main goal of this review is to present an overview of some systems, with a particular emphasis on trehalose playing a key role in several extremophile organisms. The attention is focused on the relation among the structural and dynamic properties of biomolecules and bioprotective mechanisms, as investigated by complementary spectroscopic techniques at low- and high-temperature values.

  18. marine survival ecosystem indicators - Estimating the ecosystem indicators of anadromous salmonids in the Puget Sound region

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The objective of this project is to develop a simple approach for estimating the marine survival and causes of trends in survival. Data is a summary of ecosystem...

  19. METAL STRUCTURES SURVIVABILITY ASSESSMENT WHEN SIMULATING SERVICE CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. M. Gibalenko

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The research is aimed at improving the quality and reliability of measures of primary and secondary protection of metal structures at manufacturing companies, to prolong the service life of cyclically loaded structures of production facilities taking into account the corrosion level of danger. Methodology. Authors proposed to use the principles of process approach for statement and realization of management problems of operational service life in corrosion environments. The principles of ensuring reliability on the level of corrosion danger include justification of stages sequence for survivability assessment of a structural metalwork based on the strategy of DMAIC (define, measure, analyze, improve, control: definitions, measurements, analysis, improvement and monitoring of measures of primary and secondary corrosion protection. Findings. Providing control measures from corrosion according to the criterion of corrosion danger allows providing requirements of reliability of structural metalwork based on calculated provisions of the limiting conditions method and solving the problems of management in technological safety during the expected service life of structural objects. Originality. The developed strategy of maintenance of the industrial facilities on an actual state includes the process approach to resource management by creation of system for the account and the functional controlling, risk analysis and regulation of technological safety in production facilities of the enterprises. Realization of the principles of process approach to management of technological safety at the object level is directed to perfecting of tools and methods of anticorrosive protection, extension of a resource taking into account indexes of survivability (, and justification of program measures to ensure the reliability of enterprises(PER. Practical value. On the basis of process approach to quality and reliability management, generalizations of the

  20. Shell condition and survival of Puget Sound pteropods are impaired by ocean acidification conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D Shallin Busch

    Full Text Available We tested whether the thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina from Puget Sound, an urbanized estuary in the northwest continental US, experiences shell dissolution and altered mortality rates when exposed to the high CO2, low aragonite saturation state (Ωa conditions that occur in Puget Sound and the northeast Pacific Ocean. Five, week-long experiments were conducted in which we incubated pteropods collected from Puget Sound in four carbon chemistry conditions: current summer surface (∼460-500 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.59, current deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼760 and ∼1600-1700 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.17 and 0.56, and future deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼2800-3400 µatm CO2, Ωa≈0.28. We measured shell condition using a scoring regime of five shell characteristics that capture different aspects of shell dissolution. We characterized carbon chemistry conditions in statistical analyses with Ωa, and conducted analyses considering Ωa both as a continuous dataset and as discrete treatments. Shell dissolution increased linearly as aragonite saturation state decreased. Discrete treatment comparisons indicate that shell dissolution was greater in undersaturated treatments compared to oversaturated treatments. Survival increased linearly with aragonite saturation state, though discrete treatment comparisons indicated that survival was similar in all but the lowest saturation state treatment. These results indicate that, under starvation conditions, pteropod survival may not be greatly affected by current and expected near-future aragonite saturation state in the NE Pacific, but shell dissolution may. Given that subsurface waters in Puget Sound's main basin are undersaturated with respect to aragonite in the winter and can be undersaturated in the summer, the condition and persistence of the species in this estuary warrants further study.

  1. Shell condition and survival of Puget Sound pteropods are impaired by ocean acidification conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busch, D Shallin; Maher, Michael; Thibodeau, Patricia; McElhany, Paul

    2014-01-01

    We tested whether the thecosome pteropod Limacina helicina from Puget Sound, an urbanized estuary in the northwest continental US, experiences shell dissolution and altered mortality rates when exposed to the high CO2, low aragonite saturation state (Ωa) conditions that occur in Puget Sound and the northeast Pacific Ocean. Five, week-long experiments were conducted in which we incubated pteropods collected from Puget Sound in four carbon chemistry conditions: current summer surface (∼460-500 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.59), current deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼760 and ∼1600-1700 µatm CO2, Ωa≈1.17 and 0.56), and future deep water or surface conditions during upwelling (∼2800-3400 µatm CO2, Ωa≈0.28). We measured shell condition using a scoring regime of five shell characteristics that capture different aspects of shell dissolution. We characterized carbon chemistry conditions in statistical analyses with Ωa, and conducted analyses considering Ωa both as a continuous dataset and as discrete treatments. Shell dissolution increased linearly as aragonite saturation state decreased. Discrete treatment comparisons indicate that shell dissolution was greater in undersaturated treatments compared to oversaturated treatments. Survival increased linearly with aragonite saturation state, though discrete treatment comparisons indicated that survival was similar in all but the lowest saturation state treatment. These results indicate that, under starvation conditions, pteropod survival may not be greatly affected by current and expected near-future aragonite saturation state in the NE Pacific, but shell dissolution may. Given that subsurface waters in Puget Sound's main basin are undersaturated with respect to aragonite in the winter and can be undersaturated in the summer, the condition and persistence of the species in this estuary warrants further study.

  2. Estimation and model selection of semiparametric multivariate survival functions under general censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiaohong; Fan, Yanqin; Pouzo, Demian; Ying, Zhiliang

    2010-07-01

    We study estimation and model selection of semiparametric models of multivariate survival functions for censored data, which are characterized by possibly misspecified parametric copulas and nonparametric marginal survivals. We obtain the consistency and root- n asymptotic normality of a two-step copula estimator to the pseudo-true copula parameter value according to KLIC, and provide a simple consistent estimator of its asymptotic variance, allowing for a first-step nonparametric estimation of the marginal survivals. We establish the asymptotic distribution of the penalized pseudo-likelihood ratio statistic for comparing multiple semiparametric multivariate survival functions subject to copula misspecification and general censorship. An empirical application is provided.

  3. Heterosis and heritability estimates for the survival of the Pacific white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) under the commercial scale ponds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LU Xia; LUAN Sheng; CAO Baoxiang; SUI Juan; DAI Ping; MENG Xianhong; LUO Kun; KONG Jie

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to detect the potential of the base population from diallel crosses of eight introduced strains of the Pacific white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) for improving the yield. Heterosis and heritability were estimated for pond survival at commercial farm conditions for the base population that included 207 full-sib families from a nested mating design by artificial insemination. Among all the hybrids, the heterosis ranged from–11.37%(UA1×UA2) to 20.53%(UA3×SIN) with an average of 0.953%. The results showed that more than half of the hybrids (51.85%) have negative heterosis for survival rate, but most of the hybrids with positive heterosis have high estimates. The high proportion of negative heterosis for survival rate reminders us that the survival trait also should be considered in the crossbreeding program to avoid yield decrease. However, high positive heterosis manifested in most of the hybrids for survival indicates the usefulness of these hybrids for improving the survival to obtain higher yield by crossbreeding in this breeding program. The heritability estimate for pond survival was 0.092±0.043 when genetic groups were included in the pedigree, and it was significantly different from zero (P<0.05). The results from this study also indicated that significant improvement for survival is possible through selection in L. vannamei.

  4. Winter survival of Scots pine seedlings under different snow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Domisch, Timo; Martz, Françoise; Repo, Tapani; Rautio, Pasi

    2018-04-01

    Future climate scenarios predict increased air temperatures and precipitation, particularly at high latitudes, and especially so during winter. Soil temperatures, however, are more difficult to predict, since they depend strongly on the fate of the insulating snow cover. 'Rain-on-snow' events and warm spells during winter can lead to thaw-freeze cycles, compacted snow and ice encasement, as well as local flooding. These adverse conditions could counteract the otherwise positive effects of climatic changes on forest seedling growth. In order to study the effects of different winter and snow conditions on young Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) seedlings, we conducted a laboratory experiment in which 80 1-year-old Scots pine seedlings were distributed between four winter treatments in dasotrons: ambient snow cover (SNOW), compressed snow and ice encasement (ICE), flooded and frozen soil (FLOOD) and no snow (NO SNOW). During the winter treatment period and a 1.5-month simulated spring/early summer phase, we monitored the needle, stem and root biomass of the seedlings, and determined their starch and soluble sugar concentrations. In addition, we assessed the stress experienced by the seedlings by measuring chlorophyll fluorescence, electric impedance and photosynthesis of the previous-year needles. Compared with the SNOW treatment, carbohydrate concentrations were lower in the FLOOD and NO SNOW treatments where the seedlings had almost died before the end of the experiment, presumably due to frost desiccation of aboveground parts during the winter treatments. The seedlings of the ICE treatment showed dead needles and stems only above the snow and ice cover. The results emphasize the importance of an insulating and protecting snow cover for small forest tree seedlings, and that future winters with changed snow patterns might affect the survival of tree seedlings and thus forest productivity.

  5. Estimating Conditional Distributions by Neural Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kulczycki, P.; Schiøler, Henrik

    1998-01-01

    Neural Networks for estimating conditionaldistributions and their associated quantiles are investigated in this paper. A basic network structure is developed on the basis of kernel estimation theory, and consistency property is considered from a mild set of assumptions. A number of applications...

  6. Estimation of age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions using US and Catalan survival data

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-01-01

    Background During the last part of the 1990s the chance of surviving breast cancer increased. Changes in survival functions reflect a mixture of effects. Both, the introduction of adjuvant treatments and early screening with mammography played a role in the decline in mortality. Evaluating the contribution of these interventions using mathematical models requires survival functions before and after their introduction. Furthermore, required survival functions may be different by age groups and are related to disease stage at diagnosis. Sometimes detailed information is not available, as was the case for the region of Catalonia (Spain). Then one may derive the functions using information from other geographical areas. This work presents the methodology used to estimate age- and stage-specific Catalan breast cancer survival functions from scarce Catalan survival data by adapting the age- and stage-specific US functions. Methods Cubic splines were used to smooth data and obtain continuous hazard rate functions. After, we fitted a Poisson model to derive hazard ratios. The model included time as a covariate. Then the hazard ratios were applied to US survival functions detailed by age and stage to obtain Catalan estimations. Results We started estimating the hazard ratios for Catalonia versus the USA before and after the introduction of screening. The hazard ratios were then multiplied by the age- and stage-specific breast cancer hazard rates from the USA to obtain the Catalan hazard rates. We also compared breast cancer survival in Catalonia and the USA in two time periods, before cancer control interventions (USA 1975–79, Catalonia 1980–89) and after (USA and Catalonia 1990–2001). Survival in Catalonia in the 1980–89 period was worse than in the USA during 1975–79, but the differences disappeared in 1990–2001. Conclusion Our results suggest that access to better treatments and quality of care contributed to large improvements in survival in Catalonia. On

  7. Estimation of wave conditions at Liseleje location

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borgarino, Bruno; Brorsen, Michael

    This report present the near-shore waves conditions at Liseleje. This study has been carried out as a first step to evaluate the possibility of installing an overtopping wave energy converter at Liseleje. The offshore conditions have first been calculated, using 30 years recorded wind data. Then ...

  8. Survival estimates for Florida manatees from the photo-identification of individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.; Edwards, H.H.; Fick-Child, K. J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Barton, S.L.; Hartley, W.C.

    2004-01-01

    We estimated adult survival probabilities for the endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) in four regional populations using photo-identification data and open-population capture-recapture statistical models. The mean annual adult survival probability over the most recent 10-yr period of available estimates was as follows: Northwest - 0.956 (SE 0.007), Upper St. Johns River - 0.960 (0.011), Atlantic Coast - 0.937 (0.008), and Southwest - 0.908 (0.019). Estimates of temporal variance independent of sampling error, calculated from the survival estimates, indicated constant survival in the Upper St. Johns River, true temporal variability in the Northwest and Atlantic Coast, and large sampling variability obscuring estimates for the Southwest. Calf and subadult survival probabilities were estimated for the Upper St. Johns River from the only available data for known-aged individuals: 0.810 (95% CI 0.727-0.873) for 1st year calves, 0.915 (0.827-0.960) for 2nd year calves, and 0.969 (0.946-0.982) for manatee 3 yr or older. These estimates of survival probabilities and temporal variance, in conjunction with estimates of reproduction probabilities from photoidentification data can be used to model manatee population dynamics, estimate population growth rates, and provide an integrated measure of regional status.

  9. Data on empirically estimated corporate survival rate in Russia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuzmin, Evgeny A

    2018-02-01

    The article presents data on the corporate survival rate in Russia in 1991-2014. The empirical survey was based on a random sample with the average number of non-repeated observations (number of companies) for the survey each year equal to 75,958 (24,236 minimum and 126,953 maximum). The actual limiting mean error ∆ p was 2.24% with 99% integrity. The survey methodology was based on a cross joining of various formal periods in the corporate life cycles (legal and business), which makes it possible to talk about a conventionally active time life of companies' existence with a number of assumptions. The empirical survey values were grouped by Russian regions and industries according to the classifier and consolidated into a single database for analysing the corporate life cycle and their survival rate and searching for deviation dependencies in calculated parameters. Preliminary and incomplete figures were available in the paper entitled "Survival Rate and Lifecycle in Terms of Uncertainty: Review of Companies from Russia and Eastern Europe" (Kuzmin and Guseva, 2016) [3]. The further survey led to filtered processed data with clerical errors excluded. These particular values are available in the article. The survey intended to fill a fact-based gap in various fundamental surveys that involved matters of the corporate life cycle in Russia within the insufficient statistical framework. The data are of interest for an analysis of Russian entrepreneurship, assessment of the market development and incorporation risks in the current business environment. A further heuristic potential is achievable through an ability of forecasted changes in business demography and model building based on the representative data set.

  10. Survival estimates for the passage of juvenile salmonids through Snake River dams and reservoirs, 1996. Annual report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, S.G.; Muir, W.D.; Hockersmith, E.E.; Achord, S.; Eppard, M.B.; Ruehle, T.E.; Williams, J.G.

    1998-02-01

    In 1996, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the fourth year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected near the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and at Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Individual smolts were subsequently detected at PIT-tag detection facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release (SR) and Paired-Release (PR) Models. Timing of releases of tagged hatchery steelhead (O. mykiss) from the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and yearling chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from Lower Granite Dam in 1996 spanned the major portion of their juvenile migrations. Specific research objectives in 1996 were to (1) estimate reach and project survival in the Snake River using the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations, (2) evaluate the performance of the survival-estimation models under prevailing operational and environmental conditions in the Snake River, and (3) synthesize results from the 4 years of the study to investigate relationships between survival probabilities, travel times, and environmental factors such as flow levels and water temperature

  11. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1996 Annual Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, Steven G.

    1998-02-01

    In 1996, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the fourth year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected near the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and at Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Individual smolts were subsequently detected at PIT-tag detection facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day and Bonneville Dams. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release (SR) and Paired-Release (PR) Models. Timing of releases of tagged hatchery steelhead (O. mykiss) from the head of Lower Granite Reservoir and yearling chinook salmon (O. tshawytscha) from Lower Granite Dam in 1996 spanned the major portion of their juvenile migrations. Specific research objectives in 1996 were to (1) estimate reach and project survival in the Snake River using the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations, (2) evaluate the performance of the survival-estimation models under prevailing operational and environmental conditions in the Snake River, and (3) synthesize results from the 4 years of the study to investigate relationships between survival probabilities, travel times, and environmental factors such as flow levels and water temperature.

  12. Fusion probability and survivability in estimates of heaviest nuclei production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sagaidak, Roman

    2012-01-01

    A number of theoretical models have been recently developed to predict production cross sections for the heaviest nuclei in fusion-evaporation reactions. All the models reproduce cross sections obtained in experiments quite well. At the same time they give fusion probability values P fus ≡ P CN differed within several orders of the value. This difference implies a corresponding distinction in the calculated values of survivability. The production of the heaviest nuclei (from Cm to the region of superheavy elements (SHE) close to Z = 114 and N = 184) in fusion-evaporation reactions induced by heavy ions has been considered in a systematic way within the framework of the barrier-passing (fusion) model coupled with the standard statistical model (SSM) of the compound nucleus (CN) decay. Both models are incorporated into the HIVAP code. Available data on the excitation functions for fission and evaporation residues (ER) produced in very asymmetric combinations can be described rather well within the framework of HIVAP. Cross-section data obtained in these reactions allow one to choose model parameters quite definitely. Thus one can scale and fix macroscopic (liquid-drop) fission barriers for nuclei involved in the evaporation-fission cascade. In less asymmetric combinations (with 22 Ne and heavier projectiles) effects of fusion suppression caused by quasi-fission are starting to appear in the entrance channel of reactions. The P fus values derived from the capture-fission and fusion-fission cross-sections obtained at energies above the Bass barrier were plotted as a function of the Coulomb parameter. For more symmetric combinations one can deduce the P fus values semi-empirically, using the ER and fission excitation functions measured in experiments, and applying SSM model with parameters obtained in the analysis of a very asymmetric combination leading to the production of (nearly) the same CN, as was done for reactions leading to the pre-actinide nuclei formation

  13. A NEW METHOD FOR PREDICTING SURVIVAL AND ESTIMATING UNCERTAINTY IN TRAUMA PATIENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. G. Schetinin

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS is the current “gold” standard of screening patient’s condition for purposes of predicting survival probability. More than 40 years of TRISS practice revealed a number of problems, particularly, 1 unexplained fluctuation of predicted values caused by aggregation of screening tests, and 2 low accuracy of uncertainty intervals estimations. We developed a new method made it available for practitioners as a web calculator to reduce negative effect of factors given above. The method involves Bayesian methodology of statistical inference which, being computationally expensive, in theory provides most accurate predictions. We implemented and tested this approach on a data set including 571,148 patients registered in the US National Trauma Data Bank (NTDB with 1–20 injuries. These patients were distributed over the following categories: (1 174,647 with 1 injury, (2 381,137 with 2–10 injuries, and (3 15,364 with 11–20 injuries. Survival rates in each category were 0.977, 0.953, and 0.831, respectively. The proposed method has improved prediction accuracy by 0.04%, 0.36%, and 3.64% (p-value <0.05 in the categories 1, 2, and 3, respectively. Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics showed a significant improvement of the new model calibration. The uncertainty 2σ intervals were reduced from 0.628 to 0.569 for patients of the second category and from 1.227 to 0.930 for patients of the third category, both with p-value <0.005. The new method shows the statistically significant improvement (p-value <0.05 in accuracy of predicting survival and estimating the uncertainty intervals. The largest improvement has been achieved for patients with 11–20 injuries. The method is available for practitioners as a web calculator http://www.traumacalc.org.

  14. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: does model choice affect survival estimates?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy W Grovenburg

    Full Text Available New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001-2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i

  15. Studies on the survival of Ascaris suum eggs under laboratory and simulated field conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gaasenbeek, C.P.H.; Borgsteede, F.H.M.

    1998-01-01

    A series of four experiments was carried out to study the survival of Ascaris suum eggs: in a pig slurry unit on a farm, in the laboratory under anaerobic conditions and different relative humidities (rH), and under simulated field conditions. Survival of eggs in the pig slurry unit was 20% after

  16. Fusion probability and survivability in estimates of heaviest nuclei production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sagaidak Roman N.

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Production of the heavy and heaviest nuclei (from Po to the region of superheavy elements close to Z=114 and N=184 in fusion-evaporation reactions induced by heavy ions has been considered in a systematic way within the framework of the barrier-passing model coupled with the statistical model (SM of de-excitation of a compound nucleus (CN. Excitation functions for fission and evaporation residues (ER measured in very asymmetric combinations can be described rather well. One can scale and fix macroscopic (liquid-drop fission barriers for nuclei involved in the calculation of survivability with SM. In less asymmetric combinations, effects of fusion suppression caused by quasi-fission (QF are starting to appear in the entrance channel of reactions. QF effects could be semi-empirically taken into account using fusion probabilities deduced as the ratio of measured ER cross sections to the ones obtained in the assumption of absence of the fusion suppression in corresponding reactions. SM parameters (fission barriers obtained at the analysis of a very asymmetric combination leading to the production of (nearly the same CN should be used for this evaluation.

  17. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird

    OpenAIRE

    Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H.; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R.

    2015-01-01

    Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival ove...

  18. Survival of Escherichia coli on Lettuce under Field Conditions Encountered in the Northeastern United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weller, Daniel L; Kovac, Jasna; Roof, Sherry; Kent, David J; Tokman, Jeffrey I; Kowalcyk, Barbara; Oryang, David; Ivanek, Renata; Aceituno, Anna; Sroka, Christopher; Wiedmann, Martin

    2017-07-01

    Although wildlife intrusion and untreated manure have been associated with microbial contamination of produce, relatively few studies have examined the survival of Escherichia coli on produce under field conditions following contamination (e.g., via splash from wildlife feces). This experimental study was performed to estimate the die-off rate of E. coli on preharvest lettuce following contamination with a fecal slurry. During August 2015, field-grown lettuce was inoculated via pipette with a fecal slurry that was spiked with a three-strain cocktail of rifampin-resistant nonpathogenic E. coli. Ten lettuce heads were harvested at each of 13 time points following inoculation (0, 2.5, 5, and 24 h after inoculation and every 24 h thereafter until day 10). The most probable number (MPN) of E. coli on each lettuce head was determined, and die-off rates were estimated. The relationship between sample time and the log MPN of E. coli per head was modeled using a segmented linear model. This model had a breakpoint at 106 h (95% confidence interval = 69, 142 h) after inoculation, with a daily decrease of 0.70 and 0.19 log MPN for 0 to 106 h and 106 to 240 h following inoculation, respectively. These findings are consistent with die-off rates obtained in similar studies that assessed E. coli survival on produce following irrigation. Overall, these findings provide die-off rates for E. coli on lettuce that can be used in future quantitative risk assessments.

  19. Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

    2013-01-01

    Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

  20. Conditional long-term survival following minimally invasive robotic mitral valve repair: a health services perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Efird, Jimmy T; Griffin, William F; Gudimella, Preeti; O'Neal, Wesley T; Davies, Stephen W; Crane, Patricia B; Anderson, Ethan J; Kindell, Linda C; Landrine, Hope; O'Neal, Jason B; Alwair, Hazaim; Kypson, Alan P; Nifong, Wiley L; Chitwood, W Randolph

    2015-09-01

    Conditional survival is defined as the probability of surviving an additional number of years beyond that already survived. The aim of this study was to compute conditional survival in patients who received a robotically assisted, minimally invasive mitral valve repair procedure (RMVP). Patients who received RMVP with annuloplasty band from May 2000 through April 2011 were included. A 5- and 10-year conditional survival model was computed using a multivariable product-limit method. Non-smoking men (≤65 years) who presented in sinus rhythm had a 96% probability of surviving at least 10 years if they survived their first year following surgery. In contrast, recent female smokers (>65 years) with preoperative atrial fibrillation only had an 11% probability of surviving beyond 10 years if alive after one year post-surgery. In the context of an increasingly managed healthcare environment, conditional survival provides useful information for patients needing to make important treatment decisions, physicians seeking to select patients most likely to benefit long-term following RMVP, and hospital administrators needing to comparatively assess the life-course economic value of high-tech surgical procedures.

  1. Extremophiles survival to simulated space conditions: an astrobiology model study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastascusa, V; Romano, I; Di Donato, P; Poli, A; Della Corte, V; Rotundi, A; Bussoletti, E; Quarto, M; Pugliese, M; Nicolaus, B

    2014-09-01

    In this work we investigated the ability of four extremophilic bacteria from Archaea and Bacteria domains to resist to space environment by exposing them to extreme conditions of temperature, UV radiation, desiccation coupled to low pressure generated in a Mars' conditions simulator. All the investigated extremophilic strains (namely Sulfolobus solfataricus, Haloterrigena hispanica, Thermotoga neapolitana and Geobacillus thermantarcticus) showed a good resistance to the simulation of the temperature variation in the space; on the other hand irradiation with UV at 254 nm affected only slightly the growth of H. hispanica, G. thermantarcticus and S. solfataricus; finally exposition to Mars simulated condition showed that H. hispanica and G. thermantarcticus were resistant to desiccation and low pressure.

  2. Estimates of annual survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langtimm, C.A.; O'Shea, T.J.; Pradel, R.; Beck, C.A.

    1998-01-01

    The population dynamics of large, long-lived mammals are particularly sensitive to changes in adult survival. Understanding factors affecting survival patterns is therefore critical for developing and testing theories of population dynamics and for developing management strategies aimed at preventing declines or extinction in such taxa. Few studies have used modern analytical approaches for analyzing variation and testing hypotheses about survival probabilities in large mammals. This paper reports a detailed analysis of annual adult survival in the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), an endangered marine mammal, based on a mark-recapture approach. Natural and boat-inflicted scars distinctively 'marked' individual manatees that were cataloged in a computer-based photographic system. Photo-documented resightings provided 'recaptures.' Using open population models, annual adult-survival probabilities were estimated for manatees observed in winter in three areas of Florida: Blue Spring, Crystal River, and the Atlantic coast. After using goodness-of-fit tests in Program RELEASE to search for violations of the assumptions of mark-recapture analysis, survival and sighting probabilities were modeled under several different biological hypotheses with Program SURGE. Estimates of mean annual probability of sighting varied from 0.948 for Blue Spring to 0.737 for Crystal River and 0.507 for the Atlantic coast. At Crystal River and Blue Spring, annual survival probabilities were best estimated as constant over the study period at 0.96 (95% CI = 0.951-0.975 and 0.900-0.985, respectively). On the Atlantic coast, where manatees are impacted more by human activities, annual survival probabilities had a significantly lower mean estimate of 0.91 (95% CI = 0.887-0.926) and varied unpredictably over the study period. For each study area, survival did not differ between sexes and was independent of relative adult age. The high constant adult-survival probabilities estimated

  3. Development and validation of risk prediction equations to estimate survival in patients with colorectal cancer: cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Hippisley-Cox, Julia; Coupland, Carol

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To develop and externally validate risk prediction equations to estimate absolute and conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer. \\ud \\ud Design: Cohort study.\\ud \\ud Setting: General practices in England providing data for the QResearch database linked to the national cancer registry.\\ud \\ud Participants: 44 145 patients aged 15-99 with colorectal cancer from 947 practices to derive the equations. The equations were validated in 15 214 patients with colorectal cancer ...

  4. Survival of mayfly larvae under mine acid conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Napier, S. Jr.; Hummon, W.D.

    1976-01-01

    Mayfly larvae were abundant and diverse in riffle zones of three control streams in southeastern Ohio. But none were found in such zones of three streams having current or past histories of mine acid pollution, despite vegetative recovery of reclaimed land bordering two of the streams. Laboratory studies showed stepwise increases in non-predatory mortality of mayfly larvae with increased mine acidity. Dragonfly larvae predation on mayfly larvae was constant at pH 8.1 to 4.1, but decreased at pH 3.1 despite tolerance of dragonfly larvae to low pH conditions. Extensive acid mine pollution thus may threaten aquatic biota through removal of food sources or reduced feeding rates as well as through direct mortality.

  5. Ewe maternal behavior score to estimate lamb survival and performance during lactation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreia Barros de Moraes

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Mortality of perinatal lambs and low weight at weaning cause huge liabilities to farmers. Current study describes maternal-filial behavior and evaluates the use of maternal behavior score (MBS to estimate the behavior of ewes and lambs soon after birth, and correlate it with lamb mortality and performance during lactation. Thirty-seven Corriedale ewes were used in a completely randomized design. MBS was assessed up to 24 hours after birth, taking into consideration the distance of the ewe from the lamb at the approach of a person. Maternal behavior, placental weight, weight gain of the lambs until weaning and their survival rate were also evaluated until two hours after lambing. More than 90% of the ewes had adequate maternal behavior, with parental care, even though ewes were very sensitive to the presence of people. There was no significant correlation between MBS and maternal behavior, lamb mortality rate and live weight gain. Under these conditions, MBS was not a useful tool to estimate maternal behavior and performance of lambs.

  6. Survival Bayesian Estimation of Exponential-Gamma Under Linex Loss Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizki, S. W.; Mara, M. N.; Sulistianingsih, E.

    2017-06-01

    This paper elaborates a research of the cancer patients after receiving a treatment in cencored data using Bayesian estimation under Linex Loss function for Survival Model which is assumed as an exponential distribution. By giving Gamma distribution as prior and likelihood function produces a gamma distribution as posterior distribution. The posterior distribution is used to find estimatior {\\hat{λ }}BL by using Linex approximation. After getting {\\hat{λ }}BL, the estimators of hazard function {\\hat{h}}BL and survival function {\\hat{S}}BL can be found. Finally, we compare the result of Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and Linex approximation to find the best method for this observation by finding smaller MSE. The result shows that MSE of hazard and survival under MLE are 2.91728E-07 and 0.000309004 and by using Bayesian Linex worths 2.8727E-07 and 0.000304131, respectively. It concludes that the Bayesian Linex is better than MLE.

  7. Adult survival, apparent lamb survival, and body condition of desert bighorn sheep in relation to habitat and precipitation on the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge, Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overstreet, Matthew; Caldwell, Colleen A.; Cain, James W.

    2014-01-01

    The decline of desert bighorn sheep on the Kofa National Wildlife Refuge (KNWR) beginning in 2003 stimulated efforts to determine the factors limiting survival and recruitment. We 1) determined pregnancy rates, body fat, and estimated survival rates of adults and lambs; 2) investigated the relationship between precipitation, forage conditions, previous year’s reproductive success, and adult body condition; 3) assessed the relative influence of body condition of adult females, precipitation, and forage characteristics on apparent survival of lambs; and 4) determined the prevalence of disease. To assess the influence of potential limiting factors on female desert bighorn sheep on the KNWR, we modeled percent body fat of adult females as a function of previous year’s reproductive effort, age class, and forage conditions (i.e., seasonal NDVI and seasonal precipitation). In addition, we assessed the relative influence of the body condition of adult females, precipitation, and forage conditions (NDVI) on length of time a lamb was observed at heel.Adult female survival was high in both 2009 (0.90 [SE = 0.05]) and 2010 (0.96 [SE = 0.03]). Apparent lamb survival to 6 months of age was 0.23 (SE = 0.05) during 2009-2010 and 0.21 (SE = 0.05) during 2010-2011 lambing seasons. Mean body fat for adult females was 12.03% (SE = 0.479) in 2009-2010 and 11.11% (SE= 0.486) in 2010-2011 and was not significantly different between years. Pregnancy rate was 100% in 2009 and 97.5% in 2010.Models containing the previous year’s reproductive effort, spring NDVI and previous year’s reproductive effort and spring precipitation best approximated data on percent body fat in adult females in 2009-2010. In 2010-2011, the two highest-ranking models included the previous year’s reproductive effort and winter NDVI and previous year’s reproductive effort, and winter and spring NDVI. None of the models assessing the influence of maternal body fat, precipitation, or forage conditions were

  8. Simultaneous use of mark-recapture and radiotelemetry to estimate survival, movement, and capture rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, L.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Krementz, D.G.

    2000-01-01

    Biologists often estimate separate survival and movement rates from radio-telemetry and mark-recapture data from the same study population. We describe a method for combining these data types in a single model to obtain joint, potentially less biased estimates of survival and movement that use all available data. We furnish an example using wood thrushes (Hylocichla mustelina) captured at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia in 1996. The model structure allows estimation of survival and capture probabilities, as well as estimation of movements away from and into the study area. In addition, the model structure provides many possibilities for hypothesis testing. Using the combined model structure, we estimated that wood thrush weekly survival was 0.989 ? 0.007 ( ?SE). Survival rates of banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [S_radioed, ~ S_banded]=log [S hat _radioed/ S hat _banded]=0.0239 ? 0.0435). Fidelity rates (weekly probability of remaining in a stratum) did not differ between geographic strata (psi hat=0.911 ? 0.020; alpha hat [psi11, psi22]=0.0161 ? 0.047), and recapture rates ( = 0.097 ? 0.016) banded and radio-marked individuals were not different (alpha hat [p_radioed, p_banded]=0.145 ? 0.655). Combining these data types in a common model resulted in more precise estimates of movement and recapture rates than separate estimation, but ability to detect stratum or mark-specific differences in parameters was week. We conducted simulation trials to investigate the effects of varying study designs on parameter accuracy and statistical power to detect important differences. Parameter accuracy was high (relative bias [RBIAS] inference from this model, study designs should seek a minimum of 25 animals of each marking type observed (marked or observed via telemetry) in each time period and geographic stratum.

  9. Causal inference for long-term survival in randomised trials with treatment switching: Should re-censoring be applied when estimating counterfactual survival times?

    OpenAIRE

    Latimer, N.R.; White, I.R.; Abrams, K.R.; Sieburt, U.

    2017-01-01

    Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate ‘counterfactual’ (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when e...

  10. Henslow's sparrow winter-survival estimates and response to prescribed burning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thatcher, B.S.; Krementz, D.G.; Woodrey, M.S.

    2006-01-01

    Wintering Henslow's sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii) populations rely on lands managed with prescribed burning, but the effects of various burn regimes on their overwinter survival are unknown. We studied wintering Henslow's sparrows in coastal pine savannas at the Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge, Jackson County, Mississippi, USA, during January and February 2001 and 2002. We used the known-fate modeling procedure in program MARK to evaluate the effects of burn age (1 or 2 growing seasons elapsed), burn season (growing, dormant), and calendar year on the survival rates of 83 radiomarked Henslow's sparrows. We found strong evidence that Henslow's sparrow survival rates differed by burn age (with higher survival in recently burned sites) and by year (with lower survival rates in 2001 likely because of drought conditions). We found some evidence that survival rates also differed by bum season (with higher survival in growing-season sites), although the effects of burn season were only apparent in recently burned sites. Avian predation was the suspected major cause of mortality (causing 6 of 14 deaths) with 1 confirmed loggerhead shrike (Lanius ludovicianus) depredation. Our results indicated that recently burned savannas provide high-quality wintering habitats and suggested that managers can improve conditions for wintering Henslow's sparrows by burning a large percentage of savannas each year.

  11. Estimation of transfused red cell survival using an enzyme-linked antiglobulin test

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kickler, T.S.; Smith, B.; Bell, W.; Drew, H.; Baldwin, M.; Ness, P.M.

    1985-01-01

    An enzyme-linked antiglobulin test (ELAT) method was developed to estimate survival of transfused red cells. This procedure is based on a principle analogous to that of the Ashby technique were antigenically distinct red cells are transfused and their survival studied. The authors compared the ELAT survival to the 51 Chromium method ( 51 Cr) in four patients. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias showed T 1/2 by ELAT of 17.5, 18, and 17 days versus 18.5, 20, and 19 days by the 51 Cr method. A fourth patient with traumatic cardiac hemolysis had two studies performed. In this case, the ELAT showed a T 1/2 of 10 and 8.1 days while 51 Cr T 1/2 values were 11 and 10.5 days. The ELAT method for measuring red cell survival yielded data which agreed closely with the results of the 51 Cr method. Although 51 Cr is the accepted method for red cell survival, the ELAT method can be used to estimate transfused red cell survival

  12. [Nonparametric method of estimating survival functions containing right-censored and interval-censored data].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yonghong; Gao, Xiaohuan; Wang, Zhengxi

    2014-04-01

    Missing data represent a general problem in many scientific fields, especially in medical survival analysis. Dealing with censored data, interpolation method is one of important methods. However, most of the interpolation methods replace the censored data with the exact data, which will distort the real distribution of the censored data and reduce the probability of the real data falling into the interpolation data. In order to solve this problem, we in this paper propose a nonparametric method of estimating the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data and compare its performance to SC (self-consistent) algorithm. Comparing to the average interpolation and the nearest neighbor interpolation method, the proposed method in this paper replaces the right-censored data with the interval-censored data, and greatly improves the probability of the real data falling into imputation interval. Then it bases on the empirical distribution theory to estimate the survival function of right-censored and interval-censored data. The results of numerical examples and a real breast cancer data set demonstrated that the proposed method had higher accuracy and better robustness for the different proportion of the censored data. This paper provides a good method to compare the clinical treatments performance with estimation of the survival data of the patients. This pro vides some help to the medical survival data analysis.

  13. Estimating the concordance probability in a survival analysis with a discrete number of risk groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heller, Glenn; Mo, Qianxing

    2016-04-01

    A clinical risk classification system is an important component of a treatment decision algorithm. A measure used to assess the strength of a risk classification system is discrimination, and when the outcome is survival time, the most commonly applied global measure of discrimination is the concordance probability. The concordance probability represents the pairwise probability of lower patient risk given longer survival time. The c-index and the concordance probability estimate have been used to estimate the concordance probability when patient-specific risk scores are continuous. In the current paper, the concordance probability estimate and an inverse probability censoring weighted c-index are modified to account for discrete risk scores. Simulations are generated to assess the finite sample properties of the concordance probability estimate and the weighted c-index. An application of these measures of discriminatory power to a metastatic prostate cancer risk classification system is examined.

  14. Annual survival rate estimate of satellite transmitter–marked eastern population greater sandhill cranes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fronczak, David L.; Andersen, David E.; Hanna, Everett E.; Cooper, Thomas R.

    2015-01-01

    Several surveys have documented the increasing population size and geographic distribution of Eastern Population greater sandhill cranes Grus canadensis tabida since the 1960s. Sport hunting of this population of sandhill cranes started in 2012 following the provisions of the Eastern Population Sandhill Crane Management Plan. However, there are currently no published estimates of Eastern Population sandhill crane survival rate that can be used to inform harvest management. As part of two studies of Eastern Population sandhill crane migration, we deployed solar-powered global positioning system platform transmitting terminals on Eastern Population sandhill cranes (n  =  42) at key concentration areas from 2009 to 2012. We estimated an annual survival rate for Eastern Population sandhill cranes from data resulting from monitoring these cranes by using the known-fates model in the MARK program. Estimated annual survival rate for adult Eastern Population sandhill cranes was 0.950 (95% confidence interval  =  0.885–0.979) during December 2009–August 2014. All fatalities (n  =  5) occurred after spring migration in late spring and early summer. We were unable to determine cause of death for crane fatalities in our study. Our survival rate estimate will be useful when combined with other population parameters such as the population index derived from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service fall survey, harvest, and recruitment rates to assess the effects of harvest on population size and trend and evaluate the effectiveness of management strategies.

  15. The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziya Kordjazi

    Full Text Available Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days. The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery.

  16. The Influence of Mark-Recapture Sampling Effort on Estimates of Rock Lobster Survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kordjazi, Ziya; Frusher, Stewart; Buxton, Colin; Gardner, Caleb; Bird, Tomas

    2016-01-01

    Five annual capture-mark-recapture surveys on Jasus edwardsii were used to evaluate the effect of sample size and fishing effort on the precision of estimated survival probability. Datasets of different numbers of individual lobsters (ranging from 200 to 1,000 lobsters) were created by random subsampling from each annual survey. This process of random subsampling was also used to create 12 datasets of different levels of effort based on three levels of the number of traps (15, 30 and 50 traps per day) and four levels of the number of sampling-days (2, 4, 6 and 7 days). The most parsimonious Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model for estimating survival probability shifted from a constant model towards sex-dependent models with increasing sample size and effort. A sample of 500 lobsters or 50 traps used on four consecutive sampling-days was required for obtaining precise survival estimations for males and females, separately. Reduced sampling effort of 30 traps over four sampling days was sufficient if a survival estimate for both sexes combined was sufficient for management of the fishery. PMID:26990561

  17. estimated glomerular filtration rate and risk of survival in acute stroke

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-03-03

    Mar 3, 2014 ... ESTIMATED GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE AND RISK OF SURVIVAL IN ACUTE STROKE. E. I. Okaka, MBBS, FWACP, F. A. Imarhiagbe, MBChB, FMCP, F. E. Odiase, MBBS, FMCP, O. C. A. Okoye, MBBS, FWACP,. Department of Medicine, University of Benin Teaching Hospital, Benin City, Nigeria.

  18. Culture conditions affecting the survival response of Chinese hamster ovary cells treated by hyperthermia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highfield, D.P.; Holahan, E.V.; Dewey, W.C.

    1982-01-01

    Using lethally irradiated feeder cells to control cell population densities, researchers investigated the survival of Chinese hamster ovary cells heated between 42.2 and 45.5 degrees C. Test cells were plated into T25 flasks with or without feeder cells, incubated 2 hours at 37 degrees C, and then given various heat treatments. Under all heating conditions, survival increased in those flasks containing feeder cells. Increased survival (by as much as a factor of 100 for cells heated at 42.4 degrees C for 6-10 hr) was most apparent when cells were heated to thermotolerance. By adjustment of test and feeder cell numbers, survival increased as density increased; however, maximum survival followed a transition period that occurred between the plating of 1 X 10(4) and 6 X 10(4) cells. Experimental artifacts due to improper control of cell density was demonstrated

  19. Survival of pathogenic bacteria under nutrient starvation conditions. [aboard orbiting space stations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyle, Michael; Ford, Tim; Mitchell, Ralph; Maki, James

    1990-01-01

    The survival of opportunistic pathogenic microorganisms in water, under nutrient-limiting conditions, has been investigated in order to ascertain whether human pathogens can survive within a water-distribution system of the kind proposed for the NASA Space Station. Cultures of a strain of pseudomonas aeruginosa and two strains of staphylococcus aureus were incubated at 10, 25, or 37 C, and samples at 1 day, 1 week, 1 month, and six weeks. While neither of the staphylococcus strains tested were detected after 1 week of starvation, the pseudomonas strain can survive in deionized water at all three temperatures.

  20. Relationship of external fish condition to pathogen prevalence and out-migration survival in juvenile steelhead

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetter, N.J.; Evans, A.F.; Roby, D.D.; Collis, K.; Hawbecker, M.; Sandford, B.P.; Thompson, D.E.; Loge, F.J.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding how the external condition of juvenile salmonids is associated with internal measures of health and subsequent out-migration survival can be valuable for population monitoring programs. This study investigated the use of a rapid, nonlethal, external examination to assess the condition of run-of-the-river juvenile steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss migrating from the Snake River to the Pacific Ocean. We compared the external condition (e.g., body injuries, descaling, external signs of disease, fin damage, and ectoparasite infestations) with (1) the internal condition of a steelhead as measured by the presence of selected pathogens detected by histopathology and polymerase chain reaction analysis and (2) out-migration survival through the Snake and Columbia rivers as determined by passive integrated transponder (PIT) tag technology. The results from steelhead captured and euthanized (n = 222) at Lower Monumental Dam on the lower Snake River in 2008 indicated that external condition was significantly correlated with selected measures of internal condition. The odds of testing positive for a pathogen were 39.2, 24.3, and 5.6 times greater for steelhead with severe or moderate external signs of disease or more than 20% descaling, respectively. Capture-recapture models of 22,451 PIT-tagged steelhead released at Lower Monumental Dam in 2007-2009 indicated that external condition was significantly correlated with juvenile survival. The odds of outmigration survival for steelhead with moderate or severe external signs of disease, more than 20% descaling, or severe fin damage were 5.7, 4.9, 1.6, and 1.3 times lower, respectively, than those for steelhead without these external conditions. This study effectively demonstrated that specific measures of external condition were associated with both the internal condition and out-migration survival of juvenile steelhead. ?? American Fisheries Society 2011.

  1. Local linear density estimation for filtered survival data, with bias correction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Jens Perch; Tanggaard, Carsten; Jones, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    it comes to exposure robustness, and a simple alternative weighting is to be preferred. Indeed, this weighting has, effectively, to be well chosen in a 'pilot' estimator of the survival function as well as in the main estimator itself. We also investigate multiplicative and additive bias-correction methods...... within our framework. The multiplicative bias-correction method proves to be the best in a simulation study comparing the performance of the considered estimators. An example concerning old-age mortality demonstrates the importance of the improvements provided....

  2. Local Linear Density Estimation for Filtered Survival Data with Bias Correction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tanggaard, Carsten; Nielsen, Jens Perch; Jones, M.C.

    it comes to exposure robustness, and a simple alternative weighting is to be preferred. Indeed, this weighting has, effectively, to be well chosen in a ‘pilot' estimator of the survival function as well as in the main estimator itself. We also investigate multiplicative and additive bias correction methods...... within our framework. The multiplicative bias correction method proves to be best in a simulation study comparing the performance of the considered estimators. An example concerning old age mortality demonstrates the importance of the improvements provided....

  3. Gearbox Fatigue Load Estimation for Condition Monitoring of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perisic, Nevena; Pedersen, Bo Juul; Kirkegaard, Poul Henning

    2012-01-01

    control and data acquisition (SCADA) system. Estimated loads can be further used for prediction of remaining operating lifetime of turbine components, detection of high stress level or fault detection. An augmented Kalman filter is chosen as the fatigue load estimator because its characteristics well suit......The focus of the paper is on a design of a fatigue load estimator for predictive condition monitoring systems (CMS) of wind turbines. In order to avoid high-price measurement equipment required for direct load measuring, an indirect approach is suggested using only measurements from supervisory...... for the real time application. This paper presents results of the estimation of the gearbox fatigue load, often called shaft torque, using simulated data of wind turbine. Noise sensitivity of the algorithm is investigated by assuming different levels of measurement noise. Shaft torque estimations are compared...

  4. Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

    2016-07-22

    Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

  5. Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage-grouse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blomberg, Erik J.; Sedinger, James S.; Gibson, Daniel; Coates, Peter S.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2014-01-01

    Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre- and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio-marked greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site-level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage-grouse may have indirect benefits

  6. Designing a monitoring program to estimate estuarine survival of anadromous salmon smolts: simulating the effect of sample design on inference

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romer, Jeremy D.; Gitelman, Alix I.; Clements, Shaun; Schreck, Carl B.

    2015-01-01

    A number of researchers have attempted to estimate salmonid smolt survival during outmigration through an estuary. However, it is currently unclear how the design of such studies influences the accuracy and precision of survival estimates. In this simulation study we consider four patterns of smolt survival probability in the estuary, and test the performance of several different sampling strategies for estimating estuarine survival assuming perfect detection. The four survival probability patterns each incorporate a systematic component (constant, linearly increasing, increasing and then decreasing, and two pulses) and a random component to reflect daily fluctuations in survival probability. Generally, spreading sampling effort (tagging) across the season resulted in more accurate estimates of survival. All sampling designs in this simulation tended to under-estimate the variation in the survival estimates because seasonal and daily variation in survival probability are not incorporated in the estimation procedure. This under-estimation results in poorer performance of estimates from larger samples. Thus, tagging more fish may not result in better estimates of survival if important components of variation are not accounted for. The results of our simulation incorporate survival probabilities and run distribution data from previous studies to help illustrate the tradeoffs among sampling strategies in terms of the number of tags needed and distribution of tagging effort. This information will assist researchers in developing improved monitoring programs and encourage discussion regarding issues that should be addressed prior to implementation of any telemetry-based monitoring plan. We believe implementation of an effective estuary survival monitoring program will strengthen the robustness of life cycle models used in recovery plans by providing missing data on where and how much mortality occurs in the riverine and estuarine portions of smolt migration. These data

  7. Up-to-date and projected estimates of survival for people with cystic fibrosis using baseline characteristics: A longitudinal study using UK patient registry data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keogh, Ruth H; Szczesniak, Rhonda; Taylor-Robinson, David; Bilton, Diana

    2018-03-01

    Cystic fibrosis (CF) is the most common inherited disease in Caucasians, affecting around 10,000 individuals in the UK today. Prognosis has improved considerably over recent decades with ongoing improvements in treatment and care. Providing up-to-date survival predictions is important for patients, clinicians and health services planning. Flexible parametric survival modelling of UK CF Registry data from 2011 to 2015, capturing 602 deaths in 10,428 individuals. Survival curves were estimated from birth; conditional on reaching older ages; and projected under different assumptions concerning future mortality trends, using baseline characteristics of sex, CFTR genotype (zero, one, two copies of F508del) and age at diagnosis. Male sex was associated with better survival, as was older age at diagnosis, but only in F508del non-homozygotes. Survival did not differ by genotype among individuals diagnosed at birth. Median survival ages at birth in F508del homozygotes were 46years (males) and 41years (females), and similar in non-homozygotes diagnosed at birth. F508del heterozygotes diagnosed aged 5 had median survival ages of 57 (males) and 51 (females). Conditional on survival to 30, median survival age rises to 52 (males) and 49 (females) in homozygotes. Mortality rates decreased annually by 2% during 2006-2015. Future improvements at this rate suggest median survival ages for F508del homozygous babies of 65 (males) and 56 (females). Over half of babies born today, and of individuals aged 30 and above today, can expect to survive into at least their fifth decade. Evidence before this study We searched PubMed with terms "(cystic fibrosis survival) and (projection OR model OR registry OR United Kingdom OR UK)" to identify relevant studies on survival estimates for individuals with cystic fibrosis (CF). We also considered the most recent annual report from the UK Cystic Fibrosis Registry (Cystic Fibrosis Trust, 2016), a review by Buzzetti and colleagues (2009), the chapter

  8. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olga Milenkaya

    Full Text Available Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch, a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous

  9. Body Condition Indices Predict Reproductive Success but Not Survival in a Sedentary, Tropical Bird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milenkaya, Olga; Catlin, Daniel H; Legge, Sarah; Walters, Jeffrey R

    2015-01-01

    Body condition may predict individual fitness because those in better condition have more resources to allocate towards improving their fitness. However, the hypothesis that condition indices are meaningful proxies for fitness has been questioned. Here, we ask if intraspecific variation in condition indices predicts annual reproductive success and survival. We monitored a population of Neochmia phaeton (crimson finch), a sedentary, tropical passerine, for reproductive success and survival over four breeding seasons, and sampled them for commonly used condition indices: mass adjusted for body size, muscle and fat scores, packed cell volume, hemoglobin concentration, total plasma protein, and heterophil to lymphocyte ratio. Our study population is well suited for this research because individuals forage in common areas and do not hold territories such that variation in condition between individuals is not confounded by differences in habitat quality. Furthermore, we controlled for factors that are known to impact condition indices in our study population (e.g., breeding stage) such that we assessed individual condition relative to others in the same context. Condition indices that reflect energy reserves predicted both the probability of an individual fledging young and the number of young produced that survived to independence, but only during some years. Those that were relatively heavy for their body size produced about three times more independent young compared to light individuals. That energy reserves are a meaningful predictor of reproductive success in a sedentary passerine supports the idea that energy reserves are at least sometimes predictors of fitness. However, hematological indices failed to predict reproductive success and none of the indices predicted survival. Therefore, some but not all condition indices may be informative, but because we found that most indices did not predict any component of fitness, we question the ubiquitous interpretation of

  10. A method of moments to estimate bivariate survival functions: the copula approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Silvia Angela Osmetti

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss the problem on parametric and non parametric estimation of the distributions generated by the Marshall-Olkin copula. This copula comes from the Marshall-Olkin bivariate exponential distribution used in reliability analysis. We generalize this model by the copula and different marginal distributions to construct several bivariate survival functions. The cumulative distribution functions are not absolutely continuous and they unknown parameters are often not be obtained in explicit form. In order to estimate the parameters we propose an easy procedure based on the moments. This method consist in two steps: in the first step we estimate only the parameters of marginal distributions and in the second step we estimate only the copula parameter. This procedure can be used to estimate the parameters of complex survival functions in which it is difficult to find an explicit expression of the mixed moments. Moreover it is preferred to the maximum likelihood one for its simplex mathematic form; in particular for distributions whose maximum likelihood parameters estimators can not be obtained in explicit form.

  11. Benefits of marriage on relative and conditional relative cancer survival differ between males and females in the USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Ray M; Johnson, Erin

    2017-10-01

    The purpose of the paper is to assess the influence of marital status on conditional relative survival of cancer according to sex. Analyses involved 779,978 males and 1,032,868 females diagnosed with 1 of 13 cancer types between 2000 and 2008, and followed through 2013. Data are from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program. Regression models were adjusted for age, sex, race, and tumor stage. Five-year relative survival conditional on years already survived is higher among married patients with less lethal cancers (oral cavity and pharynx, colon and rectum, breast, urinary bladder, kidney and renal pelvis, melanoma of the skin, thyroid, lymphoma). For more lethal cancers, married patients have similar (liver, lung and bronchus, pancreas, leukemia) or poorer (brain and other nervous system) cancer survival. Separated/divorced or widowed patients have the lowest conditional relative survival rates. For most cancers, 5-year cancer relative survival rates conditional on time already survived through 5 years approach 70 to 90% of that for the general population. The beneficial effect of marriage on survival decreases with years already survived. Superior conditional relative survival rates in females decrease with time already survived and are less pronounced in married patients. Five-year relative survival rates improve with time already survived. The benefits of marriage on conditional relative survival are greater for less lethal cancers. Greater 5-year conditional relative survival rates in females narrow with time already survived and are less pronounced in married patients. Conditional relative survival rates of cancer can lead to more informed decisions and understanding regarding treatment and prognosis.

  12. The Application of Extended Cox Proportional Hazard Method for Estimating Survival Time of Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Hartina; Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Tahir, Sulaiha; Mukhlisin, Ahmad; Mirna Apriani, M.

    2018-03-01

    Breast cancer is one type of cancer that is the leading cause of death worldwide. This study aims to model the factors that affect the survival time and rate of cure of breast cancer patients. The extended cox model, which is a modification of the proportional hazard cox model in which the proportional hazard assumptions are not met, is used in this study. The maximum likelihood estimation approach is used to estimate the parameters of the model. This method is then applied to medical record data of breast cancer patient in 2011-2016, which is taken from Hasanuddin University Education Hospital. The results obtained indicate that the factors that affect the survival time of breast cancer patients are malignancy and leukocyte levels.

  13. Survival of spray-dried Lactobacillus kefir is affected by different protectants and storage conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Golowczyc, Marina A; Gerez, Carla L; Silva, Joana; Abraham, Analía G; De Antoni, Graciela L; Teixeira, Paula

    2011-04-01

    Survival of two Lactobacillus kefir strains after spray drying in reconstituted skim milk with or without the addition of 12.5 g monosodium glutamate/l, 20 g sucrose/l, or 20 g fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS)/l and during subsequent storage under different conditions of temperature (20 and 30°C) and relative humidity (RH) (0, 11 and 23%) was evaluated. After being dried, L. kefir 8321 and L. kefir 8348 had a decrease in viability of 0.29 and 0.70 log cfu/ml respectively, while the addition of different protectants improved the survival of both strains significantly. During storage, bacterial survival was significantly higher under lower conditions of RH (0-11%), and monosodium glutamate and FOS proved to be the best protectants.

  14. Prolonged bone marrow and skin allograft survival after pretransplant conditioning with cyclophosphamide and total lymphoid irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kersey, J.H.; Kruger, J.; Song, C.; Kloster, B.

    1980-01-01

    Current studies were designed to provide long-term survival of allogeneic skin and bone marrow in mice preconditioned with various combinations of cyclophosphamide (CY) and/or total lymphoid irradiation (TLI). Long-term skin graft and bone marrow survival was obtained across the major histocompatibility barrier (BALB/c into C57BL/6) using pregrafting conditioning with either fractionated TLI or the combination of CY with a single dose of TLI. CY alone and a single dose of TLI alone were relatively ineffective as regrafting immunosuppressive combinations. Allogeneic bone marrow was required for long-term skin graft survival with either conditioning regimen. Allogeneic marrow transplantation resulted in somewhat more deaths than syngeneic transplantation with both CY + TLI and fractionated TLI

  15. Intra-annual patterns in adult band-tailed pigeon survival estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.; Overton, Cory T.; Howe, Kristy H.

    2015-01-01

    Context: The band-tailed pigeon (Patagioenas fasciata) is a migratory species occurring in western North America with low recruitment potential and populations that have declined an average of 2.4% per year since the 1960s. Investigations into band-tailed pigeon demographic rates date back to the early 1900s, and existing annual survival rate estimates were derived in the 1970s using band return data.

  16. Multiple Imputation for Estimating the Risk of Developing Dementia and Its Impact on Survival

    OpenAIRE

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S.; Launer, Lenore J.

    2010-01-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer’s disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. I...

  17. Survival and Recovery of Methanotrophic Bacteria Starved Under Oxic and Anoxic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roslev, Peter; King, Gary M.

    1994-01-01

    The effects of carbon deprivation on survival of methanotrophic bacteria were compared in cultures incubated in the presence and absence of oxygen in the starvation medium. Survival and recovery of the examined methanotrophs were generally highest for cultures starved under anoxic conditions as indicated by poststarvation measurements of methane oxidation, tetrazolium salt reduction, plate counts, and protein synthesis. Methylosinus trichosporium OB3b survived up to 6 weeks of carbon deprivation under anoxic conditions while maintaining a physiological state that allowed relatively rapid (hours) methane oxidation after substrate addition. A small fraction of cells starved under oxic and anoxic conditions (4 and 10%, respectively) survived more than 10 weeks but required several days for recovery on plates and in liquid medium. A non-spore-forming methanotroph, strain WP 12, displayed 36 to 118% of its initial methane oxidation capacity after 5 days of carbon deprivation. Oxidation rates varied with growth history prior to the experiments as well as with starvation conditions. Strain WP 12 starved under anoxic conditions showed up to 90% higher methane oxidation activity and 46% higher protein production after starvation than did cultures starved under oxic conditions. Only minor changes in biomass and niorpholow were seen for methanotrophic bacteria starved tinder anoxic conditions. In contrast, starvation under oxic conditions resulted in morphology changes and an initial 28 to 35% loss of cell protein. These data suggest that methanotrophic bacteria can survin,e carbon deprivation under anoxic conditions by using maintenance energy derived Solelyr from an anaerobic endogenous metabolism. This capability could partly explain a significant potential for methane oxidation in environments not continuously, supporting aerobic methanotrophic growth.

  18. Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

    2016-02-01

    Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Multiple imputation for estimating the risk of developing dementia and its impact on survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Binbing; Saczynski, Jane S; Launer, Lenore

    2010-10-01

    Dementia, Alzheimer's disease in particular, is one of the major causes of disability and decreased quality of life among the elderly and a leading obstacle to successful aging. Given the profound impact on public health, much research has focused on the age-specific risk of developing dementia and the impact on survival. Early work has discussed various methods of estimating age-specific incidence of dementia, among which the illness-death model is popular for modeling disease progression. In this article we use multiple imputation to fit multi-state models for survival data with interval censoring and left truncation. This approach allows semi-Markov models in which survival after dementia depends on onset age. Such models can be used to estimate the cumulative risk of developing dementia in the presence of the competing risk of dementia-free death. Simulations are carried out to examine the performance of the proposed method. Data from the Honolulu Asia Aging Study are analyzed to estimate the age-specific and cumulative risks of dementia and to examine the effect of major risk factors on dementia onset and death.

  20. Computer Model to Estimate Reliability Engineering for Air Conditioning Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afrah Al-Bossly, A.; El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.

    2012-01-01

    Reliability engineering is used to predict the performance and optimize design and maintenance of air conditioning systems. Air conditioning systems are expose to a number of failures. The failures of an air conditioner such as turn on, loss of air conditioner cooling capacity, reduced air conditioning output temperatures, loss of cool air supply and loss of air flow entirely can be due to a variety of problems with one or more components of an air conditioner or air conditioning system. Forecasting for system failure rates are very important for maintenance. This paper focused on the reliability of the air conditioning systems. Statistical distributions that were commonly applied in reliability settings: the standard (2 parameter) Weibull and Gamma distributions. After distributions parameters had been estimated, reliability estimations and predictions were used for evaluations. To evaluate good operating condition in a building, the reliability of the air conditioning system that supplies conditioned air to the several The company's departments. This air conditioning system is divided into two, namely the main chilled water system and the ten air handling systems that serves the ten departments. In a chilled-water system the air conditioner cools water down to 40-45 degree F (4-7 degree C). The chilled water is distributed throughout the building in a piping system and connected to air condition cooling units wherever needed. Data analysis has been done with support a computer aided reliability software, this is due to the Weibull and Gamma distributions indicated that the reliability for the systems equal to 86.012% and 77.7% respectively. A comparison between the two important families of distribution functions, namely, the Weibull and Gamma families was studied. It was found that Weibull method performed for decision making.

  1. Meta-analysis of single-arm survival studies: a distribution-free approach for estimating summary survival curves with random effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combescure, Christophe; Foucher, Yohann; Jackson, Daniel

    2014-07-10

    In epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with time-dependent outcome (for instance death or disease progression), survival curves are used to describe the risk of the event over time. In meta-analyses of studies reporting a survival curve, the most informative finding is a summary survival curve. In this paper, we propose a method to obtain a distribution-free summary survival curve by expanding the product-limit estimator of survival for aggregated survival data. The extension of DerSimonian and Laird's methodology for multiple outcomes is applied to account for the between-study heterogeneity. Statistics I(2)  and H(2) are used to quantify the impact of the heterogeneity in the published survival curves. A statistical test for between-strata comparison is proposed, with the aim to explore study-level factors potentially associated with survival. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a simulation study. Our approach is also applied to synthesize the survival of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from aggregate data of 27 studies and synthesize the graft survival of kidney transplant recipients from individual data from six hospitals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Blowfly puparia in a hermetic container: survival under decreasing oxygen conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mądra-Bielewicz, Anna; Frątczak-Łagiewska, Katarzyna; Matuszewski, Szymon

    2017-09-01

    Despite widely accepted standards for sampling and preservation of insect evidence, unrepresentative samples or improperly preserved evidence are encountered frequently in forensic investigations. Here, we report the results of laboratory studies on the survival of Lucilia sericata and Calliphora vomitoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae) intra-puparial forms in hermetic containers, which were stimulated by a recent case. It is demonstrated that the survival of blowfly intra-puparial forms inside airtight containers is dependent on container volume, number of puparia inside, and their age. The survival in both species was found to increase with an increase in the volume of air per 1 mg of puparium per day of development in a hermetic container. Below 0.05 ml of air, no insect survived, and above 0.2 ml of air per 1 mg of puparium per day, survival reached its maximum. These results suggest that blowflies reveal a single, general pattern of survival under decreasing oxygen conditions and that this pattern is a product of number of developing insects, their age and the initial amount of available air. Implications for forensic entomology are discussed.

  3. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Spring-Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs, 2001-2002 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zabel, Richard; Williams, John G.; Smith, Steven G. (Northwest and Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Fish Ecology Division, Seattle, WA)

    2002-06-01

    In 2001, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the ninth year of a study to estimate survival and travel time of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through dams and reservoirs on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. All estimates were derived from passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. We PIT tagged and released at Lower Granite Dam a total of 17,028 hatchery and 3,550 wild steelhead. In addition, we utilized fish PIT tagged by other agencies at traps and hatcheries upstream of the hydropower system and sites within the hydropower system. PIT-tagged smolts were detected at interrogation facilities at Lower Granite, Little Goose, Lower Monumental, McNary, John Day, and Bonneville Dams and in the PIT-tag detector trawl operated in the Columbia River estuary. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release Model. Primary research objectives in 2001 were to: (1) estimate reach and project survival and travel time in the Snake and Columbia Rivers throughout the yearling chinook salmon and steelhead migrations; (2) evaluate relationships between survival estimates and migration conditions; and (3) evaluate the survival-estimation models under prevailing conditions. This report provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 2001 for PIT-tagged yearling chinook salmon and steelhead (hatchery and wild) in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. Results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More details on methodology and statistical models used are provided in previous reports cited in the text. Results for summer-migrating chinook salmon will be reported separately.

  4. Estimating Outdoor Illumination Conditions Based on Detection of Dynamic Shadows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Claus B.; Lal, Brajesh Behari

    2013-01-01

    into the image stream to achieve realistic Augmented Reality where the shading and the shadowing of virtual objects is consistent with the real scene. Other techniques require the presence of a known object, a light probe, in the scene for estimating illumination. The technique proposed here works in general......The paper proposes a technique for estimation outdoor illumination conditions in terms of sun and sky radiances directly from pixel values of dynamic shadows detected in video sequences produved by a commercial stereo camera. The technique is applied to the rendering of virtual object...

  5. Apparent survival rates of forest birds in eastern Ecuador revisited: improvement in precision but no change in estimates.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John G Blake

    Full Text Available Knowledge of survival rates of Neotropical landbirds remains limited, with estimates of apparent survival available from relatively few sites and species. Previously, capture-mark-recapture models were used to estimate apparent survival of 31 species (30 passerines, 1 Trochilidae from eastern Ecuador based on data collected from 2001 to 2006. Here, estimates are updated with data from 2001-2012 to determine how additional years of data affect estimates; estimates for six additional species are provided. Models assuming constant survival had highest support for 19 of 31 species when based on 12 years of data compared to 27 when based on six; models incorporating effects of transients had the highest support for 12 of 31 species compared to four when based on 12 and six years, respectively. Average apparent survival based on the most highly-supported model (based on model averaging, when appropriate was 0.59 (± 0.02 SE across 30 species of passerines when based on 12 years and 0.57 (± 0.02 when based on six. Standard errors of survival estimates based on 12 years were approximately half those based on six years. Of 31 species in both data sets, estimates of apparent survival were somewhat lower for 13, somewhat higher for 17, and remained unchanged for one; confidence intervals for estimates based on six and 12 years of data overlapped for all species. Results indicate that estimates of apparent survival are comparable but more precise when based on longer-term data sets; standard error of the estimates was negatively correlated with numbers of captures (rs  = -0.72 and recaptures (rs  = -0.93, P<0.001 in both cases. Thus, reasonable estimates of apparent survival may be obtained with relatively few years of data if sample sizes are sufficient.

  6. Survival and development of horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) embryos and larvae in hypersaline conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehlinger, Gretchen S; Tankersley, Richard A

    2004-04-01

    The horseshoe crab Limulus polyphemus spawns in the mid- to upper intertidal zone where females deposit eggs in nests below the sediment surface. Although adult crabs generally inhabit subtidal regions of estuaries with salinities from 5 to 34 ppt, developing embryos and larvae within nests are often exposed to more extreme conditions of salinity and temperature during summer spawning periods. To test whether these conditions have a negative impact on early development and survival, we determined development time, survival, and molt cycle duration for L. polyphemus embryos and larvae raised at 20 combinations of salinity (range: 30-60 ppt) and temperature (range: 25-40 degrees C). Additionally, the effect of hyperosmotic and hypoosmotic shock on the osmolarity of the perivitelline fluid of embryos was determined at salinities between 5 and 90 ppt. The embryos completed their development and molted at salinities below 60 ppt, yet failed to develop at temperatures of 35 degrees C or higher. Larval survival was high at salinities of 10-70 ppt but declined significantly at more extreme salinities (i.e., 5, 80, and 90 ppt). Perivitelline fluid remained nearly isoosmotic over the range of salinities tested. Results indicate that temperature and salinity influence the rate of crab development, but only the extremes of these conditions have an effect on survival.

  7. Evaluation of severe accident environmental conditions taking accident management strategy into account for equipment survivability assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Byung Chul; Jeong, Ji Hwan; Na, Man Gyun; Kim, Soong Pyung

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a methodology utilizing accident management strategy in order to determine accident environmental conditions in equipment survivability assessments. In case that there is well-established accident management strategy for specific nuclear power plant, an application of this tool can provide a technical rationale on equipment survivability assessment so that plant-specific and time-dependent accident environmental conditions could be practically and realistically defined in accordance with the equipment and instrumentation required for accident management strategy or action appropriately taken. For this work, three different tools are introduced; Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) outcomes, major accident management strategy actions, and Accident Environmental Stages (AESs). In order to quantitatively investigate an applicability of accident management strategy to equipment survivability, the accident simulation for a most likely scenario in Korean Standard Nuclear Power Plants (KSNPs) is performed with MAAP4 code. The Accident Management Guidance (AMG) actions such as the Reactor Control System (RCS) depressurization, water injection into the RCS, the containment pressure and temperature control, and hydrogen concentration control in containment are applied. The effects of these AMG actions on the accident environmental conditions are investigated by comparing with those from previous normal accident simulation, especially focused on equipment survivability assessment. As a result, the AMG-involved case shows the higher accident consequences along the accident environmental stages

  8. Estimation of survival of adult Florida manatees in the Crystal River, at Blue Spring, and on the Atlantic Coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Shea, Thomas J.; Langtimm, Catherine A.; O'Shea, Thomas J.; Ackerman, B.B.; Percival, H. Franklin

    1995-01-01

    We applied Cormack-Jolly-Seber open population models to manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) photo-identification databases to estimate adult survival probabilities. The computer programs JOLLY and RECAPCO were used to estimate survival of 677 individuals in three study areas: Crystal River (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), Blue Spring (winters 1977-78 to 1990-91), and the Atlantic Coast (winters 1984-85 to 1990-91). We also estimated annual survival from observations of 111 manatees tagged for studies with radiotelemetry. Survival estimated from observations with telemetry had broader confidence intervals than survival estimated with the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Annual probabilities of capture based on photo-identification records were generally high. The mean annual adult survival estimated from sighting-resighting records was 0.959-0.962 in the Crystal River and 0.936-0.948 at Blue Spring and may be high enough to permit population growth, given the values of other life-history parameters. On the Atlantic Coast, the estimated annual adult survival (range of means = 0.877-0.885) may signify a declining population. However, for several reasons, interpretation of data from the latter study group should be tempered with caution. Adult survivorship seems to be constant with age in all three study groups. No strong differences were apparent between adult survival ofmales and females in the Crystal River or at Blue Spring; the basis of significant differences between sexes on the Atlantic Coast is unclear. Future research into estimating survival with photo-identification and the Cormack-Jolly-Seber models should be vigorously pursued. Estimates of annual survival can provide an additional indication of Florida manatee population status with a stronger statistical basis than aerial counts and carcass totals.

  9. Estimation of failure criteria in multivariate sensory shelf life testing using survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giménez, Ana; Gagliardi, Andrés; Ares, Gastón

    2017-09-01

    For most food products, shelf life is determined by changes in their sensory characteristics. A predetermined increase or decrease in the intensity of a sensory characteristic has frequently been used to signal that a product has reached the end of its shelf life. Considering all attributes change simultaneously, the concept of multivariate shelf life allows a single measurement of deterioration that takes into account all these sensory changes at a certain storage time. The aim of the present work was to apply survival analysis to estimate failure criteria in multivariate sensory shelf life testing using two case studies, hamburger buns and orange juice, by modelling the relationship between consumers' rejection of the product and the deterioration index estimated using PCA. In both studies, a panel of 13 trained assessors evaluated the samples using descriptive analysis whereas a panel of 100 consumers answered a "yes" or "no" question regarding intention to buy or consume the product. PC1 explained the great majority of the variance, indicating all sensory characteristics evolved similarly with storage time. Thus, PC1 could be regarded as index of sensory deterioration and a single failure criterion could be estimated through survival analysis for 25 and 50% consumers' rejection. The proposed approach based on multivariate shelf life testing may increase the accuracy of shelf life estimations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF MECHANICAL SYSTEM CONDITION IN DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. N. Mironov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers an estimation of a complicated mechanical system condition in dynamics with due account of material degradation and accumulation of micro-damages. An element of continuous medium has been simulated and described with the help of a discrete element. The paper contains description of a model for determination of mechanical system longevity in accordance with number of cycles and operational period.

  11. The impact of environmental conditions on Campylobacter jejuni survival in broiler faeces and litter

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shaun Smith

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Campylobacter jejuni is the leading bacterial food-borne pathogen within the European Union, and poultry meat is an important vehicle for its transmission to humans. However, there is limited knowledge about how this organism persists in broiler litter and faeces. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of a number of environmental parameters, such as temperature, humidity, and oxygen, on Campylobacter survival in both broiler litter and faeces. Materials and methods: Used litter was collected from a Campylobacter-negative broiler house after final depopulation and fresh faeces were collected from transport crates. Samples were confirmed as Campylobacter negative according to modified ISO methods for veterinary samples. Both sample matrices were inoculated with 9 log10 CFU/ml C. jejuni and incubated under high (≥85% and low (≤70% relative humidity conditions at three different temperatures (20°C, 25°C, and 30°C under both aerobic and microaerophilic atmospheres. Inoculated litter samples were then tested for Campylobacter concentrations at time zero and every 2 hours for 12 hours, while faecal samples were examined at time zero and every 24 hours for 120 hours. A two-tailed t-test assuming unequal variance was used to compare mean Campylobacter concentrations in samples under the various temperature, humidity, and atmospheric conditions. Results and discussion: C. jejuni survived significantly longer (P≤0.01 in faeces, with a minimum survival time of 48 hours, compared with 4 hours in used broiler litter. C. jejuni survival was significantly enhanced at 20°C in all environmental conditions in both sample matrices tested compared with survival at 25°C and 30°C. In general, survival was greater in microaerophilic compared with aerobic conditions in both sample matrices. Humidity, at the levels examined, did not appear to significantly impact C. jejuni survival in any sample matrix. The persistence of Campylobacter

  12. The impact of environmental conditions on Campylobacter jejuni survival in broiler faeces and litter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Shaun; Meade, Joseph; Gibbons, James; McGill, Kevina; Bolton, Declan; Whyte, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Campylobacter jejuni is the leading bacterial food-borne pathogen within the European Union, and poultry meat is an important vehicle for its transmission to humans. However, there is limited knowledge about how this organism persists in broiler litter and faeces. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of a number of environmental parameters, such as temperature, humidity, and oxygen, on Campylobacter survival in both broiler litter and faeces. Used litter was collected from a Campylobacter-negative broiler house after final depopulation and fresh faeces were collected from transport crates. Samples were confirmed as Campylobacter negative according to modified ISO methods for veterinary samples. Both sample matrices were inoculated with 9 log10 CFU/ml C. jejuni and incubated under high (≥85%) and low (≤70%) relative humidity conditions at three different temperatures (20°C, 25°C, and 30°C) under both aerobic and microaerophilic atmospheres. Inoculated litter samples were then tested for Campylobacter concentrations at time zero and every 2 hours for 12 hours, while faecal samples were examined at time zero and every 24 hours for 120 hours. A two-tailed t-test assuming unequal variance was used to compare mean Campylobacter concentrations in samples under the various temperature, humidity, and atmospheric conditions. C. jejuni survived significantly longer (P≤0.01) in faeces, with a minimum survival time of 48 hours, compared with 4 hours in used broiler litter. C. jejuni survival was significantly enhanced at 20°C in all environmental conditions in both sample matrices tested compared with survival at 25°C and 30°C. In general, survival was greater in microaerophilic compared with aerobic conditions in both sample matrices. Humidity, at the levels examined, did not appear to significantly impact C. jejuni survival in any sample matrix. The persistence of Campylobacter in broiler litter and faeces under various environmental conditions has

  13. Growth and Survival of Some Probiotic Strains in Simulated Ice Cream Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homayouni, A.; Ehsani, M. R.; Azizi, A.; Razavi, S. H.; Yarmand, M. S.

    A Completely Randomized Design (CRD) experiment was applied in triplicates to evaluate the survival of four probiotic strains in simulated ice cream conditions. The growth and survival rate of these probiotic strains (Lactobacillus acidophilus, Lactobacillus casei, Bifidobacterium bifidum and Bifidobacterium longum) in varying amount of sucrose (10, 15, 20 and 25%), oxygen scavenging components (0.05% L-cysteine and 0.05% L-ascorbate) and temperatures (4 and -20°C) during different periods of time (1, 2 and 3 months) were evaluated in MRS-broth medium. Optical density at 580 nm was used to measure growth. Lactobacilli strains proved to be highly resistant in comparison with Biffidobacteria strains. The viable cell number of Lactobacillus casei in different sucrose concentrations, different oxidoreduction potentials and refrigeration temperature was 1x1010, 2x108 and 5x107 cfu mL-1, respectively. Growth and survival rate of Lactobacillus casei showed to be the highest.

  14. Improving multisensor estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation via conditional bias-penalized optimal estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Beomgeun; Seo, Dong-Jun; Noh, Seong Jin; Prat, Olivier P.; Nelson, Brian R.

    2018-01-01

    A new technique for merging radar precipitation estimates and rain gauge data is developed and evaluated to improve multisensor quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE), in particular, of heavy-to-extreme precipitation. Unlike the conventional cokriging methods which are susceptible to conditional bias (CB), the proposed technique, referred to herein as conditional bias-penalized cokriging (CBPCK), explicitly minimizes Type-II CB for improved quantitative estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation. CBPCK is a bivariate version of extended conditional bias-penalized kriging (ECBPK) developed for gauge-only analysis. To evaluate CBPCK, cross validation and visual examination are carried out using multi-year hourly radar and gauge data in the North Central Texas region in which CBPCK is compared with the variant of the ordinary cokriging (OCK) algorithm used operationally in the National Weather Service Multisensor Precipitation Estimator. The results show that CBPCK significantly reduces Type-II CB for estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation, and that the margin of improvement over OCK is larger in areas of higher fractional coverage (FC) of precipitation. When FC > 0.9 and hourly gauge precipitation is > 60 mm, the reduction in root mean squared error (RMSE) by CBPCK over radar-only (RO) is about 12 mm while the reduction in RMSE by OCK over RO is about 7 mm. CBPCK may be used in real-time analysis or in reanalysis of multisensor precipitation for which accurate estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation is of particular importance.

  15. Effects of in vitro conditions on the survival of Alaria alata mesocercariae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    González-Fuentes, Hiromi; Riehn, Katharina; Koethe, Martin; von Borell, Eberhard; Luecker, Ernst; Hamedy, Ahmad

    2014-08-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the effect of different concentrations of table salt (NaCl) and ethanol (v/v) solutions on the viability of Alaria alata mesocercariae. Furthermore, the survival of A. alata mesocercariae during simulated human gastric digestion was evaluated. For this purpose, A. alata mesocercariae migration technique (AMT) was used for the isolation of the parasite from high-positive A. alata mesocercariae meat from wild boar, raccoon, raccoon dog, and badger meat. In total, we have studied the behavior of 582 larvae under different conditions (NaCl, ethanol, and artificial gastric juice) in three independent in vitro experiments. The larvae survived at a NaCl concentration of up to 2.0% until day 21 with a median survival time of 11 days. At 3.0% NaCl concentration, the larvae lost their vitality after less than 24 h. In addition, it was found that ethanol concentrations from 8.0 to 70.0% were effective at reducing survival of A. alata mesocercariae within a short period of time (meat products recommended for human consumption because at lower NaCl concentration the parasite survived for a substantial period of time. Finally, the common concentrations of ethanol used for the disinfection of surfaces in household and/or laboratory, are sufficient for the inactivation of A. alata mesocercariae.

  16. Survival and Adaptation of the Thermophilic Species Geobacillus thermantarcticus in Simulated Spatial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Donato, Paola; Romano, Ida; Mastascusa, Vincenza; Poli, Annarita; Orlando, Pierangelo; Pugliese, Mariagabriella; Nicolaus, Barbara

    2018-03-01

    Astrobiology studies the origin and evolution of life on Earth and in the universe. According to the panspermia theory, life on Earth could have emerged from bacterial species transported by meteorites, that were able to adapt and proliferate on our planet. Therefore, the study of extremophiles, i.e. bacterial species able to live in extreme terrestrial environments, can be relevant to Astrobiology studies. In this work we described the ability of the thermophilic species Geobacillus thermantarcticus to survive after exposition to simulated spatial conditions including temperature's variation, desiccation, X-rays and UVC irradiation. The response to the exposition to the space conditions was assessed at a molecular level by studying the changes in the morphology, the lipid and protein patterns, the nucleic acids. G. thermantarcticus survived to the exposition to all the stressing conditions examined, since it was able to restart cellular growth in comparable levels to control experiments carried out in the optimal growth conditions. Survival was elicited by changing proteins and lipids distribution, and by protecting the DNA's integrity.

  17. [Estimations of maternal mortality using the sisterhood survival method: Latin American experience].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, L R; Simons, H; Graham, W; Schkolnik, S

    1990-08-01

    The method of surviving sisters for indirectly estimating maternal mortality is still under development but shows promise for countries lacking alternative sources of data and good statistics. This work uses census or survey data to apply the method to rural villages in Gambia; Mapuche settlements in Cautin, Chile; marginal populations on the outskirts of Lima, Peru; and rural villages of Avaroa, Bolivia. The method is explained in detail following presentation of the results. The necessary basic information is outlined, and the particularities of its application to each Latin American case are discussed. The surviving sisters method was developed by Graham and Brass to derive indicators of maternal mortality based on the proportion of sisters who arrive at fertile age and die during pregnancy, delivery, or the postpartum period. The method transforms the proportions of sisters who died of maternal causes obtained from a census or survey into conventional probabilities of death. The basic information required concerns the numbers of sisters entering the reproductive period (excluding the respondent is she is a woman), the number surviving and decreased at the survey data, and the number who died during pregnancy, delivery, or the postpartum period. The probabilities of dying from a maternal cause were estimated on the basis of the sister survival method at 1/98 in Lima, 1/53 in Cautin, 1/17 in Gambia, and 1/10 in Bolivia. These probabilities correspond to ratios of maternal mortality per 100,000 live births of 286 in Lima, 414 in Cautin, 1005 in Gambia, and 1379 in Bolivia. The results demonstrate great variability in maternal mortality rates. In the cases of Lima and Cautin there were significant differences between estimates derived from the sister survival method and those derived from vital statistics. The 4 cases demonstrated the familiar association between maternal and infant mortality, fertility, and overall female mortality expressed in life expectancy at

  18. Estimating rare events in biochemical systems using conditional sampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundar, V. S.

    2017-01-01

    The paper focuses on development of variance reduction strategies to estimate rare events in biochemical systems. Obtaining this probability using brute force Monte Carlo simulations in conjunction with the stochastic simulation algorithm (Gillespie's method) is computationally prohibitive. To circumvent this, important sampling tools such as the weighted stochastic simulation algorithm and the doubly weighted stochastic simulation algorithm have been proposed. However, these strategies require an additional step of determining the important region to sample from, which is not straightforward for most of the problems. In this paper, we apply the subset simulation method, developed as a variance reduction tool in the context of structural engineering, to the problem of rare event estimation in biochemical systems. The main idea is that the rare event probability is expressed as a product of more frequent conditional probabilities. These conditional probabilities are estimated with high accuracy using Monte Carlo simulations, specifically the Markov chain Monte Carlo method with the modified Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Generating sample realizations of the state vector using the stochastic simulation algorithm is viewed as mapping the discrete-state continuous-time random process to the standard normal random variable vector. This viewpoint opens up the possibility of applying more sophisticated and efficient sampling schemes developed elsewhere to problems in stochastic chemical kinetics. The results obtained using the subset simulation method are compared with existing variance reduction strategies for a few benchmark problems, and a satisfactory improvement in computational time is demonstrated.

  19. Systematic review of survival time in experimental mouse stroke with impact on reliability of infarct estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klarskov, Carina Kirstine; Klarskov, Mikkel Buster; Hasseldam, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    infarcts with more substantial edema. Purpose: This paper will give an overview of previous studies of experimental mouse stroke, and correlate survival time to peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, investigations of whether the included studies corrected the infarct measurements for edema...... of reasons for the translational problems from mouse experimental stroke to clinical trials probably exists, including infarct size estimations around the peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, edema is a more prominent feature of stroke in mice than in humans, because of the tendency to produce larger...... of the investigated process. Our findings indicate a need for more research in this area, and establishment of common correction methodology....

  20. Estimation of direct effects for survival data by using the Aalen additive hazards model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Gerster, Mette

    2011-01-01

    We extend the definition of the controlled direct effect of a point exposure on a survival outcome, other than through some given, time-fixed intermediate variable, to the additive hazard scale. We propose two-stage estimators for this effect when the exposure is dichotomous and randomly assigned...... Aalen's additive regression for the event time, given exposure, intermediate variable and confounders. The second stage involves applying Aalen's additive model, given the exposure alone, to a modified stochastic process (i.e. a modification of the observed counting process based on the first...

  1. Survival, recovery and microcystin release of Microcystis aeruginosa in cold or dark condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Yi; Gan, Nanqin; Liu, Jin; Zheng, Lingling; Li, Lin; Song, Lirong

    2017-03-01

    Microcystis often dominates phytoplankton in eutrophic lakes and must survive a long period of cold or dark conditions. However, the survival strategies of Microcystis to withstand cold or dark stress are less well known. In this study, we conducted experiments on the responses of two toxic Microcystis aeruginosa strains (FACHB-905 and FACHB-915) and their microcystin release in conditions of low temperature (15°C or 4°C, with illumination) or darkness, and subsequent recovery in standard conditions (25°C with illumination). On exposure to 15°C, a small decrease in cell viability was observed, but the cell number increased gradually, suggesting that M. aeruginosa FACHB-905 and FACHB-915 cells seem in general tolerant in 15°C. Interestingly, our results show that a higher carotenoid content and microcystin release potentially enhance the fitness of surviving cells at 15°C. M. aeruginosa cells exposed to lower temperature light stress (4°C) did not completely lose viability and retained the ability to reinitiate growth. In darkness, the maximum quantum yield ( F v/ F m) and the maximum electron transport rate (ETRmax) values and cell viability of M. aeruginosa cells gradually decreased with time. During the recovery period, the photosynthetic efficiency of M. aeruginosa reverted to the normal level. Additionally, M. aeruginosa FACHB-905 and FACHB-915 exposed to low temperature had increased caspase-3-like activity and DNA fragmentation, which suggests the occurrence of a type of cell death in M. aeruginosa cells under cold stress similar to programmed cell death. Overall, our findings could confer certain advantages on the Microcystis for surviving cold or dark conditions encountered in the annual cycle, and help explain its repeated occurrence in water blooms in large and shallow lakes.

  2. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

    2017-07-28

    Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  3. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justine B. Nasejje

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Random survival forest (RSF models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. Methods In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points. The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points. Results The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Conclusion Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  4. Estimated Muscle Loads During Squat Exercise in Microgravity Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fregly, Christopher D.; Kim, Brandon T.; Li, Zhao; DeWitt, John K.; Fregly, Benjamin J.

    2012-01-01

    Loss of muscle mass in microgravity is one of the primary factors limiting long-term space flight. NASA researchers have developed a number of exercise devices to address this problem. The most recent is the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device (ARED), which is currently used by astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) to emulate typical free-weight exercises in microgravity. ARED exercise on the ISS is intended to reproduce Earth-level muscle loads, but the actual muscle loads produced remain unknown as they cannot currently be measured directly. In this study we estimated muscle loads experienced during squat exercise on ARED in microgravity conditions representative of Mars, the moon, and the ISS. The estimates were generated using a subject-specific musculoskeletal computer model and ARED exercise data collected on Earth. The results provide insight into the capabilities and limitations of the ARED machine.

  5. Biochemical Control With Radiotherapy Improves Overall Survival in Intermediate and High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Who Have an Estimated 10-Year Overall Survival of >90%

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, Christopher; Liu, Mitchell; Tyldesley, Scott; Morris, W. James; Joffres, Michel; Khaira, Mandip; Kwan, Winkle; Moiseenko, Vitali; Pickles, Thomas

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To identify subgroups of patients with carcinoma of the prostate treated with radical radiotherapy that have improved overall survival when disease is biochemically controlled. Methods and Materials: A cohort of 1,060 prostate cancer patients treated with radical radiotherapy was divided into nine subgroups based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk category and estimated 10-year overall survival (eOS 10y) derived from the age adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index. Patients with and without biochemical control were compared with respect to overall survival. Actuarial estimates of overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for analysis of overall survival. Results: Median follow-up was 125 months (range, 51–176 months). Only the subgroups with high or intermediate risk disease and an eOS 10y of >90% had a statistically significantly improved overall survival when prostate cancer was biochemically controlled. In all other groups, biochemical control made no significant difference to overall survival. In the subgroup with high-risk disease and eOS 10y >90%, actuarial overall survival was 86.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78.5%–94.1%) and 62.1% (95% CI 52.9%–71.3%) for patients with biochemical control and biochemical relapse respectively (p = 0.002). In the intermediate risk group with eOS >90%, actuarial overall survival was 95.3% (95% CI 89.0%–100%) and 79.8% (95% CI 68.0%–91.6%) for biochemically controlled and biochemically relapsed patients (p = 0.033). On multivariate analysis, National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group (p = 0.005), biochemical control (p = 0.033) and eOS 10y (p 90%.

  6. Estimation of Inbreeding Coefficient and Its Effects on Lamb Survival in Sheep

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    mohammad almasi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Introduction The mating of related individuals produces an inbred offspring and leads to an increased homozygosity in the progeny, genetic variance decrease within families and increase between families. The ration of homozygosity for individuals was calculated by inbreeding coefficient. Inbred individuals may carry two alleles at a locus that are replicated from one gene in the previous generations, called identical by descent. The inbreeding coefficient should be monitored in a breeding program, since it plays an important role at decreasing of homeostasis, performance, reproduction and viability. The trend of inbreeding is an indicator for determining of inbreeding level in the herd. Inbreeding affects both phenotypic means of traits and genetic variances within population, thus it is an important factor for delimitations of genetic progress in a population. Reports showed an inbreeding increase led to decrease of phenotypic value in some of the productive and reproductive traits. Materials and Methods In the current study, the pedigree data of 14030 and 6215 records of Baluchi and Iranblack lambs that collected from 1984 to 2011 at the Abbasabad Sheep Breeding Station in Mashhad, Iran, 3588 records of Makoei lambs that collected from 1994 to 2011 at the Makoei sheep breeding station and 6140, records of Zandi lambs that collected from 1991 to 2011 at the Khejir Sheep Breeding Station in Tehran, Iran were used to estimating the inbreeding coefficient and its effects on lamb survival in these breeds. Lamb survival trait was scored as 1 and 0 for lamb surviving and not surviving at weaning weight, respectively. Inbreeding coefficient was estimated by relationship matrix algorithm (A=TDT' methodology using the CFC software program. Effects of inbreeding coefficient on lamb survival were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood (REML method under 12 different animal models using ASReml 3.0 computer programme. Coefficient of inbreeding for each

  7. Estimation of Unemployment Duration in Botoşani County Using Survival Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Darabă Gabriel

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we aim at estimating the unemployment duration in Botosani County in order tostudy the impact of individual characteristics (gender, age, place of residence, unemploymentbenefit, etc. on the length of unemployment spells. We use Cox regression model to measure theeffects of gender, age, residential environment, etc. on the hazard rate of leaving unemploymentandKaplan-Meier estimator to compare survival probabilities among different categories ofunemployed persons. The study is carried out on a sample of 200 unemployment spellsregisteredwith the Employment Agency of Botoşani County from January 2012 to December 2015. Theresults reveal that place of residence, unemployment benefit and unemployed category have asignificant impact on unemployment spells.

  8. Lyapunov Based Estimation of Flight Stability Boundary under Icing Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Binbin Pei

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Current fight boundary of the envelope protection in icing conditions is usually defined by the critical values of state parameters; however, such method does not take the interrelationship of each parameter and the effect of the external disturbance into consideration. This paper proposes constructing the stability boundary of the aircraft in icing conditions through analyzing the region of attraction (ROA around the equilibrium point. Nonlinear icing effect model is proposed according to existing wind tunnel test results. On this basis, the iced polynomial short period model can be deduced further to obtain the stability boundary under icing conditions using ROA analysis. Simulation results for a series of icing severity demonstrate that, regardless of the icing severity, the boundary of the calculated ROA can be treated as an estimation of the stability boundary around an equilibrium point. The proposed methodology is believed to be a promising way for ROA analysis and stability boundary construction of the aircraft in icing conditions, and it will provide theoretical support for multiple boundary protection of icing tolerant flight.

  9. Estimating freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns of Klamath River Coho Salmon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Perry, Russell W.; Faukner, Jimmy; Soto, Toz

    2018-01-01

    An area of great importance to resource management and conservation biology in the Klamath Basin is balancing water usage against the life history requirements of threatened Coho Salmon. One tool for addressing this topic is a freshwater dynamics model to forecast Coho Salmon productivity based on environmental inputs. Constructing such a forecasting tool requires local data to quantify the unique life history processes of Coho Salmon inhabiting this region. Here, we describe analytical methods for estimating a series of sub-models, each capturing a different life history process, which will eventually be synchronized as part of a freshwater dynamics model for Klamath River Coho Salmon. Specifically, we draw upon extensive population monitoring data collected in the basin to estimate models of freshwater productivity, overwinter survival, and migration patterns. Our models of freshwater productivity indicated that high summer temperatures and high winter flows can both adversely affect smolt production and that such relationships are more likely in tributaries with naturally regulated flows due to substantial intraannual environmental variation. Our models of overwinter survival demonstrated extensive variability in survival among years, but not among rearing locations, and demonstrated that a substantial proportion (~ 20%) of age-0+ fish emigrate from some rearing sites in the winter. Our models of migration patterns indicated that many age-0+ fish redistribute in the basin during the summer and winter. Further, we observed that these redistributions can entail long migrations in the mainstem where environmental stressors likely play a role in cueing refuge entry. Finally, our models of migration patterns indicated that changes in discharge are important in cueing the seaward migration of smolts, but that the nature of this behavioral response can differ dramatically between tributaries with naturally and artificially regulated flows. Collectively, these analyses

  10. Estimation of the competitive conditions in the Czech banking sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Stavárek

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper uses New Empirical Industrial Organization approach, especially Panzar-Rosse model to estimates the level of competition of the banking industry in the Czech Republic during the period 2001–2009. We apply Panzar-Rosse model to estimate H statistic for a panel of 15 banks, which represent almost 90 % of the market. This paper also measures and compares the degree of banking competition in two sub-periods, 2001–2005 and 2005–2009, in order to investigate development of the competitive structure of the Czech banking industry. We found that the market was in equilibrium during most of the estimation period, which is a necessary condition for sound evaluation of the competition level. While the market can be described as perfectly competitive in 2001–2005, the intensity of competition decreased after joining the EU in 2004 and the market can be characterized as one of monopolistic competition in 2005–2009. The monopolistic competition in the Czech banking market was also revealed if the full sample 2001–2009 is considered.

  11. Effects of environmental conditions on growth and survival of Salmonella in pasteurized whole egg

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakociune, Dziuginta; Bisgaard, Magne; Hervé, Gaëlle

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the influence of three parameters (time, temperature and NaCl concentration) on survival and four parameters (temperature, NaCl and lysozyme concentrations and pH) on growth of Salmonella enterica serovar Enteritidis (S. Enteritidis) in pasteurized whole egg (PWE). Doehlert......Cl at a fixed heating time of 120s, while maximum growth rate was estimated at 25°C and 0% of NaCl. pH and lysozyme concentration were shown not to influence growth performance significantly in the range of values studied. Results inform industry of the optimal pasteurization and storage parameters for liquid...

  12. Effects of simulated Mars conditions on the survival and growth of Escherichia coli and Serratia liquefaciens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berry, Bonnie J; Jenkins, David G; Schuerger, Andrew C

    2010-04-01

    Escherichia coli and Serratia liquefaciens, two bacterial spacecraft contaminants known to replicate under low atmospheric pressures of 2.5 kPa, were tested for growth and survival under simulated Mars conditions. Environmental stresses of high salinity, low temperature, and low pressure were screened alone and in combination for effects on bacterial survival and replication, and then cells were tested in Mars analog soils under simulated Mars conditions. Survival and replication of E. coli and S. liquefaciens cells in liquid medium were evaluated for 7 days under low temperatures (5, 10, 20, or 30 degrees C) with increasing concentrations (0, 5, 10, or 20%) of three salts (MgCl(2), MgSO(4), NaCl) reported to be present on the surface of Mars. Moderate to high growth rates were observed for E. coli and S. liquefaciens at 30 or 20 degrees C and in solutions with 0 or 5% salts. In contrast, cell densities of both species generally did not increase above initial inoculum levels under the highest salt concentrations (10 and 20%) and the four temperatures tested, with the exception that moderately higher cell densities were observed for both species at 10% MgSO(4) maintained at 20 or 30 degrees C. Growth rates of E. coli and S. liquefaciens in low salt concentrations were robust under all pressures (2.5, 10, or 101.3 kPa), exhibiting a general increase of up to 2.5 orders of magnitude above the initial inoculum levels of the assays. Vegetative E. coli cells were maintained in a Mars analog soil for 7 days under simulated Mars conditions that included temperatures between 20 and -50 degrees C for a day/night diurnal period, UVC irradiation (200 to 280 nm) at 3.6 W m(-2) for daytime operations (8 h), pressures held at a constant 0.71 kPa, and a gas composition that included the top five gases found in the martian atmosphere. Cell densities of E. coli failed to increase under simulated Mars conditions, and survival was reduced 1 to 2 orders of magnitude by the interactive

  13. Survival estimates for the passage of juvenile chinook salmon through Snake River dams and reservoirs. Annual report 1993

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Iwamoto, R.N.; Muir, W.D.; Sandford, B.P.; McIntyre, K.W.; Frost, D.A.; Williams, J.G.; Smith, S.G.; Skalski, J.R.

    1994-04-01

    A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at different areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers

  14. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Chinook Salmon through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1993 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iwamoto, Robert N.; Sandford, Benjamin P.; McIntyre, Kenneth W.

    1994-04-01

    A pilot study was conducted to estimate survival of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon through dams and reservoirs on the Snake River. The goals of the study were to: (1) field test and evaluate the Single-Release, Modified-Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models for the estimation of survival probabilities through sections of a river and hydroelectric projects; (2) identify operational and logistical constraints to the execution of these models; and (3) determine the usefulness of the models in providing estimates of survival probabilities. Field testing indicated that the numbers of hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon needed for accurate survival estimates could be collected at different areas with available gear and methods. For the primary evaluation, seven replicates of 830 to 1,442 hatchery-reared yearling chinook salmon were purse-seined from Lower Granite Reservoir, PIT tagged, and released near Nisqually John boat landing (River Kilometer 726). Secondary releases of PIT-tagged smolts were made at Lower Granite Dam to estimate survival of fish passing through turbines and after detection in the bypass system. Similar secondary releases were made at Little Goose Dam, but with additional releases through the spillway. Based on the success of the 1993 pilot study, the authors believe that the Single-Release and Paired-Release Models will provide accurate estimates of juvenile salmonid passage survival for individual river sections, reservoirs, and hydroelectric projects in the Columbia and Snake Rivers.

  15. Probiotics improve survival of septic rats by suppressing conditioned pathogens in ascites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Da-Quan; Gao, Qiao-Ying; Liu, Hong-Bin; Li, Dong-Hua; Wu, Shang-Wei

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the benefits of probiotics treatment in septic rats. METHODS: The septic rats were induced by cecal ligation and puncture. The animals of control, septic model and probiotics treated groups were treated with vehicle and mixed probiotics, respectively. The mixture of probiotics included Bifidobacterium longum, Lactobacillus bulgaricus and Streptococcus thermophilus. We observed the survival of septic rats using different amounts of mixed probiotics. We also detected the bacterial population in ascites and blood of experimental sepsis using cultivation and real-time polymerase chain reaction. The severity of mucosal inflammation in colonic tissues was determined. RESULTS: Probiotics treatment improved survival of the rats significantly and this effect was dose dependent. The survival rate was 30% for vehicle-treated septic model group. However, 1 and 1/4 doses of probiotics treatment increased survival rate significantly compared with septic model group (80% and 55% vs 30%, P probiotics treated group compared with septic model group (5.20 ± 0.57 vs 9.81 ± 0.67, P probiotics treated group compared with septic model group (33.3% vs 100.0%, P probiotics treated group were decreased significantly compared with that of septic model group (3.93 ± 0.73 vs 8.80 ± 0.83, P probiotics treatment, there was a decrease in the scores of inflammatory cell infiltration into the intestinal mucosa in septic animals (1.50 ± 0.25 vs 2.88 ± 0.14, P Probiotics improve survival of septic rats by suppressing these conditioned pathogens. PMID:23840152

  16. Estimating conditional quantiles with the help of the pinball loss

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steinwart, Ingo

    2008-01-01

    Using the so-called pinball loss for estimating conditional quantiles is a well-known tool in both statistics and machine learning. So far, however, only little work has been done to quantify the efficiency of this tool for non-parametric (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. The goal of this work is to fill this gap by establishing inequalities that describe how close approximate pinball risk minimizers are to the corresponding conditional quantile. These inequalities, which hold under mild assumptions on the data-generating distribution, are then used to establish so-called variance bounds which recently turned out to play an important role in the statistical analysis of (modified) empirical risk minimization approaches. To illustrate the use of the established inequalities, we then use them to establish an oracle inequality for support vector machines that use the pinball loss. Here, it turns out that we obtain learning rates which are optimal in a min-max sense under some standard assumptions on the regularity of the conditional quantile function

  17. Annual survival estimation of migratory songbirds confounded by incomplete breeding site-fidelity: study designs that may help

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marshall, M. R.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Many species of bird exhibit varying degrees of site–fidelity to the previous year’s territory or breeding area, a phenomenon we refer to as incomplete breeding site–fidelity. If the territory they occupy is located beyond the bounds of the study area or search area (i.e., they have emigrated from the study area, the bird will go undetected and is therefore indistinguishable from dead individuals in capture–mark–recapture studies. Differential emigration rates confound inferences regarding differences in survival between sexes and among species if apparent survival rates are used as estimates of true survival. Moreover, the bias introduced by using apparent survival rates for true survival rates can have profound effects on the predictions of population persistence through time, source/sink dynamics, and other aspects of life–history theory. We investigated four study design and analysis approaches that result in apparent survival estimates that are closer to true survival estimates. Our motivation for this research stemmed from a multi–year capture–recapture study of Prothonotary Warblers (Protonotaria citrea on multiple study plots within a larger landscape of suitable breeding habitat where substantial inter–annual movements of marked individuals among neighboring study plots was documented. We wished to quantify the effects of this type of movement on annual survival estimation. The first two study designs we investigated involved marking birds in a core area and resighting them in the core as well as an area surrounding the core. For the first of these two designs, we demonstrated that as the resighting area surrounding the core gets progressively larger, and more “emigrants” are resighted, apparent survival estimates begin to approximate true survival rates (bias < 0.01. However, given observed inter–annual movements of birds, it is likely to be logistically impractical to resight birds on sufficiently large

  18. Effect of encapsulation of selected probiotic cell on survival in simulated gastrointestinal tract condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hasiah Ayama

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The health benefits of probiotic bacteria have been led to their increasing use in foods. Encapsulation has been investigated to improve their survival. In this study, the selection, encapsulation and viability of lactic acid bacteria (LAB with probiotic properties in simulated gastrointestinal tract (GIT condition were investigated. One hundred and fifty isolates of LAB were obtained from 30 samples of raw cow and goat milk and some fermented foods. Nine isolates could survive under GIT condition and only 3 isolates exhibited an antimicrobial activity against all food-borne pathogenic bacteria. Among them, 2 isolates (CM21 and CM53 exhibited bile salt hydrolase activity on glycocholate and glycodeoxycholate agar plates and were identified as Lactobacillus plantarum. CM53 was selected for encapsulation using 1-3% alginate and 2% Hi-maize resistant starch by emulsion system. Viability and releasing ability of encapsulated CM53 in simulated GIT condition was increased in accordance to the alginate concentration and incubation time, respectively.

  19. Anaerobic digestion in mesophilic and room temperature conditions: Digestion performance and soil-borne pathogen survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Le; Jian, Shanshan; Bi, Jinhua; Li, Yunlong; Chang, Zhizhou; He, Jian; Ye, Xiaomei

    2016-05-01

    Tomato plant waste (TPW) was used as the feedstock of a batch anaerobic reactor to evaluate the effect of anaerobic digestion on Ralstonia solanacearum and Phytophthora capsici survival. Batch experiments were carried out for TS (total solid) concentrations of 2%, 4% and 6% respectively, at mesophilic (37±1°C) and room (20-25°C) temperatures. Results showed that higher digestion performance was achieved under mesophilic digestion temperature and lower TS concentration conditions. The biogas production ranged from 71 to 416L/kg VS (volatile solids). The inactivation of anaerobic digestion tended to increase as digestion performance improved. The maximum log copies reduction of R. solanacearum and P. capsici detected by quantitative PCR (polymerase chain reaction) were 3.80 and 4.08 respectively in reactors with 4% TS concentration at mesophilic temperatures. However, both in mesophilic and room temperature conditions, the lowest reduction of R. solanacearum was found in the reactors with 6% TS concentration, which possessed the highest VFA (volatile fatty acid) concentration. These findings indicated that simple accumulation of VFAs failed to restrain R. solanacearum effectively, although the VFAs were considered poisonous. P. capsici was nearly completely dead under all conditions. Based on the digestion performance and the pathogen survival rate, a model was established to evaluate the digestate biosafety. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  20. Approaches to estimate body condition from slaughter records in reindeer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Olofsson

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Long-term fluctuations in population densities of reindeer and caribou are common, where pasture is the limiting resource. Pasture quality affects the nutritional status and production of the animals. Therefore, continuous information about changes in the grazing resources is important when making management decisions. The objective of this study was to investigate different possibilities of using routine and additional slaughter records as body condition indicators, and thereby indicators of pasture resources in the summer ranges of reindeer husbandry. Records from 696 reindeer slaughtered in the winter 2002/2003 were included in the study. We developed a model with carcass weight as body condition indicator and two different models combining fatness, conformation, carcass weight, and body size as body condition indicators. The results showed age and sex dependent differences between the variables, and differentiation of animal age and sex improved the precision of models. Adjusting weight for body size also improved weight as a body condition indicator in adults. Conformation and fatness had good resemblance to weight and body size adjusted weight and should preferably be included, together with carcass weight and body size measures, when estimating body condition from carcasses. Our analysis showed that using non-invasive slaughter records is a good and non-expensive method of estimating body condition in reindeer. Abstract in Swedish / Sammandrag:Tillvägagångssätt för skattning avkroppskondition hos ren från slaktregistreringarFluktuationer i ren- och caribou-populationers täthet över tiden är vanliga då betet är en begränsad resurs och beteskvalitén påverkar djurens kondition och produktion. Kontinuerligt uppdaterad information om förändringar i betesresurserna är viktigt i samband med beslutsfattande om förvaltning avresurserna. Syftet med denna studie var att utvärdera olika möjliga sätt att anv

  1. Extended survival of several organisms and amino acids under simulated martian surface conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, A. P.; Pratt, L. M.; Vishnivetskaya, T.; Pfiffner, S.; Bryan, R. A.; Dadachova, E.; Whyte, L.; Radtke, K.; Chan, E.; Tronick, S.; Borgonie, G.; Mancinelli, R. L.; Rothschild, L. J.; Rogoff, D. A.; Horikawa, D. D.; Onstott, T. C.

    2011-02-01

    Recent orbital and landed missions have provided substantial evidence for ancient liquid water on the martian surface as well as evidence of more recent sedimentary deposits formed by water and/or ice. These observations raise serious questions regarding an independent origin and evolution of life on Mars. Future missions seek to identify signs of extinct martian biota in the form of biomarkers or morphological characteristics, but the inherent danger of spacecraft-borne terrestrial life makes the possibility of forward contamination a serious threat not only to the life detection experiments, but also to any extant martian ecosystem. A variety of cold and desiccation-tolerant organisms were exposed to 40 days of simulated martian surface conditions while embedded within several centimeters of regolith simulant in order to ascertain the plausibility of such organisms' survival as a function of environmental parameters and burial depth. Relevant amino acid biomarkers associated with terrestrial life were also analyzed in order to understand the feasibility of detecting chemical evidence for previous biological activity. Results indicate that stresses due to desiccation and oxidation were the primary deterrent to organism survival, and that the effects of UV-associated damage, diurnal temperature variations, and reactive atmospheric species were minimal. Organisms with resistance to desiccation and radiation environments showed increased levels of survival after the experiment compared to organisms characterized as psychrotolerant. Amino acid analysis indicated the presence of an oxidation mechanism that migrated downward through the samples during the course of the experiment and likely represents the formation of various oxidizing species at mineral surfaces as water vapor diffused through the regolith. Current sterilization protocols may specifically select for organisms best adapted to survival at the martian surface, namely species that show tolerance to radical

  2. Survival, physical and physiological changes of Taenia hydatigena eggs under different conditions of water stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Thevenet, Paula; Alvarez, Hector Manuel; Basualdo, Juan Angel

    2017-06-01

    Taenia hydatigena eggs were investigated for morphological and physiological changes under water stress conditions. Fresh eggs were exposed at 31%, 47% and 89% of relative humidity (RH), and survival, size and ultrastructural changes were accounted up to 365 days of exposition. The article shows how each RH environment affects the vitality of the eggs. Results of this study suggest that T. hydatigena eggs have mechanisms to withstand water stress, indicating that the eggs clustering improves protection against desiccation, and that endogenous metabolism using triacylglycerols play an important role in the maintenance of embryo vitality under low, medium and high relative humidity conditions. This contributes to understanding the water stress resistance mechanism in eggs belonging to Taeniidae family. The findings shown herein have provided a basis to better comprehend basic biology and epidemiology of the cysticercosis caused by T. hydatigena. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. The survival-reproduction association becomes stronger when conditions are good.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert, Alexandre; Bolton, Mark; Jiguet, Frédéric; Bried, Joël

    2015-11-07

    Positive covariations between survival and reproductive performance (S-R covariation) are generally interpreted in the context of fixed or dynamic demographic heterogeneity (i.e. persistent differences between individuals, or dynamic variation in resource acquisition), but the processes underlying covariations are still unknown. We used multi-event modelling to investigate how environmental and individual features influence S-R covariation patterns in a long-lived seabird, the Monteiro's storm petrel (Oceanodroma monteiroi). Our analysis reveals that a strong positive association between individual breeding success and subsequent survival occurs only when conditions are favourable to reproduction (in favourable years, in high-quality nests and in nest-faithful breeders). This finding reflects differences in the main causes of breeding failure and mortality under favourable and unfavourable conditions, which in turn lead to distinct patterns of S-R covariation. We suggest, in particular, that resource-related sources of demographic heterogeneity do not generate a strong S-R covariation, in contrast with hidden and unpredictable sources of variation. © 2015 The Author(s).

  4. Risky behavior and its effect on survival: snowshoe hare behavior under varying moonlight conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gigliotti, Laura C.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

    2018-01-01

    Predation and predation risk can exert strong influences on the behavior of prey species. However, risk avoidance behaviors may vary among populations of the same species. We studied a population of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus) near the southern edge of their range, in Pennsylvania. This population occupies different habitat types, experiences different environmental conditions, and are exposed to different predator species and densities than northern hare populations; therefore, they might exhibit differences in risk avoidance behaviors. We analyzed hare survival, movement rates, and habitat use under different levels of predation risk, as indexed by moonlight. Similar to previous work, we found snowshoe hare survival decreased with increased moon illumination during the winter, but we found differences in behavioral responses to increased predation risk. We found that snowshoe hares did not reduce movement rates during high‐risk nights, but instead found that hares selected areas with denser canopy cover, compared to low‐risk nights. We suggest that behavioral plasticity in response to predation risk allows populations of the same species to respond to localized conditions.

  5. Hypoxia-activated prodrug TH-302 decreased survival rate of canine lymphoma cells under hypoxic condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamazaki, Hiroki; Lai, Yu-Chang; Tateno, Morihiro; Setoguchi, Asuka; Goto-Koshino, Yuko; Endo, Yasuyuki; Nakaichi, Munekazu; Tsujimoto, Hajime; Miura, Naoki

    2017-01-01

    We tested the hypotheses that hypoxic stimulation enhances growth potentials of canine lymphoma cells by activating hypoxia-inducible factor 1α (HIF-1α), and that the hypoxia-activated prodrug (TH-302) inhibits growth potentials in the cells. We investigated how hypoxic culture affects the growth rate, chemoresistance, and invasiveness of canine lymphoma cells and doxorubicin (DOX)-resistant lymphoma cells, and influences of TH-302 on survival rate of the cells under hypoxic conditions. Our results demonstrated that hypoxic culture upregulated the expression of HIF-1α and its target genes, including ATP-binding cassette transporter B1 (ABCB1), ATP-binding cassette transporter G2 (ABCG2), platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), and survivin, and enhanced the growth rate, DOX resistance, and invasiveness of the cells. Additionally, TH-302 decreased the survival rate of the cells under hypoxic condition. Our studies suggest that hypoxic stimulation may advance the tumorigenicity of canine lymphoma cells, favoring malignant transformation. Therefore, the data presented may contribute to the development of TH-302-based hypoxia-targeting therapies for canine lymphoma.

  6. Impact of starvation on survival, meat condition and metabolism of Chlamys farreri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hong-Sheng; Wang, Jian; Zhou, Yi; Wang, Ping; He, Yi-Chao; Zhang, Fu-Sui

    2001-03-01

    The effects of 60-day starvation on survival rate, condition index (CI), changes of nutrient composition of different tissues, respiration and excretion of scallop Chlamys farreri were studied in laboratory from Oct. 17 to Dec. 15, 1997. Two groups (control and starvation with 200 individuals each) were cultured in two 2 m3 tanks, with 31 to 32 salinity water at 17°C. Starvation effects were measured after 10, 20, 40 and 60 days. There was no mass mortality of scallops of the two tanks and survival rates of the control and starvation groups were 93.5% and 92.0%, respectively. Starvation had strong effect on the meat condition of the scallops, especially after 10 days; when relative lipid percentage dropped sharply while relative protein percentage increased. The impact of starvation on the oxygen consumption rate (OCR) and the ammonia-N excretion rate (AER) was obvious. The OCR increased rapidly after 10 days but decreased after 20 days. The AER increased after 10 days and 20 days, but decreased obviously from 20 to 40 days. The O∶N ratios varied to different degrees, and minimized after 20 days. The low O∶N ratios implied that the protein was the main material for the metabolism of C. farreri.

  7. Experimental FSO network availability estimation using interactive fog condition monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turán, Ján.; Ovseník, Łuboš

    2016-12-01

    Free Space Optics (FSO) is a license free Line of Sight (LOS) telecommunication technology which offers full duplex connectivity. FSO uses infrared beams of light to provide optical broadband connection and it can be installed literally in a few hours. Data rates go through from several hundreds of Mb/s to several Gb/s and range is from several 100 m up to several km. FSO link advantages: Easy connection establishment, License free communication, No excavation are needed, Highly secure and safe, Allows through window connectivity and single customer service and Compliments fiber by accelerating the first and last mile. FSO link disadvantages: Transmission media is air, Weather and climate dependence, Attenuation due to rain, snow and fog, Scattering of laser beam, Absorption of laser beam, Building motion and Air pollution. In this paper FSO availability evaluation is based on long term measured data from Fog sensor developed and installed at TUKE experimental FSO network in TUKE campus, Košice, Slovakia. Our FSO experimental network has three links with different physical distances between each FSO heads. Weather conditions have a tremendous impact on FSO operation in terms of FSO availability. FSO link availability is the percentage of time over a year that the FSO link will be operational. It is necessary to evaluate the climate and weather at the actual geographical location where FSO link is going to be mounted. It is important to determine the impact of a light scattering, absorption, turbulence and receiving optical power at the particular FSO link. Visibility has one of the most critical influences on the quality of an FSO optical transmission channel. FSO link availability is usually estimated using visibility information collected from nearby airport weather stations. Raw data from fog sensor (Fog Density, Relative Humidity, Temperature measured at each ms) are collected and processed by FSO Simulator software package developed at our Department. Based

  8. Error estimation for CFD aeroheating prediction under rarefied flow condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Yazhong; Gao, Zhenxun; Jiang, Chongwen; Lee, Chunhian

    2014-12-01

    Both direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) and Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods have become widely used for aerodynamic prediction when reentry vehicles experience different flow regimes during flight. The implementation of slip boundary conditions in the traditional CFD method under Navier-Stokes-Fourier (NSF) framework can extend the validity of this approach further into transitional regime, with the benefit that much less computational cost is demanded compared to DSMC simulation. Correspondingly, an increasing error arises in aeroheating calculation as the flow becomes more rarefied. To estimate the relative error of heat flux when applying this method for a rarefied flow in transitional regime, theoretical derivation is conducted and a dimensionless parameter ɛ is proposed by approximately analyzing the ratio of the second order term to first order term in the heat flux expression in Burnett equation. DSMC simulation for hypersonic flow over a cylinder in transitional regime is performed to test the performance of parameter ɛ, compared with two other parameters, Knρ and MaṡKnρ.

  9. Does bioelectrical impedance analysis accurately estimate the condition of threatened and endangered desert fish species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dibble, Kimberly L.; Yard, Micheal D.; Ward, David L.; Yackulic, Charles B.

    2017-01-01

    Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is a nonlethal tool with which to estimate the physiological condition of animals that has potential value in research on endangered species. However, the effectiveness of BIA varies by species, the methodology continues to be refined, and incidental mortality rates are unknown. Under laboratory conditions we tested the value of using BIA in addition to morphological measurements such as total length and wet mass to estimate proximate composition (lipid, protein, ash, water, dry mass, energy density) in the endangered Humpback Chub Gila cypha and Bonytail G. elegans and the species of concern Roundtail Chub G. robusta and conducted separate trials to estimate the mortality rates of these sensitive species. Although Humpback and Roundtail Chub exhibited no or low mortality in response to taking BIA measurements versus handling for length and wet-mass measurements, Bonytails exhibited 14% and 47% mortality in the BIA and handling experiments, respectively, indicating that survival following stress is species specific. Derived BIA measurements were included in the best models for most proximate components; however, the added value of BIA as a predictor was marginal except in the absence of accurate wet-mass data. Bioelectrical impedance analysis improved the R2 of the best percentage-based models by no more than 4% relative to models based on morphology. Simulated field conditions indicated that BIA models became increasingly better than morphometric models at estimating proximate composition as the observation error around wet-mass measurements increased. However, since the overall proportion of variance explained by percentage-based models was low and BIA was mostly a redundant predictor, we caution against the use of BIA in field applications for these sensitive fish species.

  10. Fluoxetine pretreatment promotes neuronal survival and maturation after auditory fear conditioning in the rat amygdala.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lizhu Jiang

    Full Text Available The amygdala is a critical brain region for auditory fear conditioning, which is a stressful condition for experimental rats. Adult neurogenesis in the dentate gyrus (DG of the hippocampus, known to be sensitive to behavioral stress and treatment of the antidepressant fluoxetine (FLX, is involved in the formation of hippocampus-dependent memories. Here, we investigated whether neurogenesis also occurs in the amygdala and contributes to auditory fear memory. In rats showing persistent auditory fear memory following fear conditioning, we found that the survival of new-born cells and the number of new-born cells that differentiated into mature neurons labeled by BrdU and NeuN decreased in the amygdala, but the number of cells that developed into astrocytes labeled by BrdU and GFAP increased. Chronic pretreatment with FLX partially rescued the reduction in neurogenesis in the amygdala and slightly suppressed the maintenance of the long-lasting auditory fear memory 30 days after the fear conditioning. The present results suggest that adult neurogenesis in the amygdala is sensitive to antidepressant treatment and may weaken long-lasting auditory fear memory.

  11. Whole brain radiotherapy for brain metastases from breast cancer: estimation of survival using two stratification systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Viani, Gustavo A; Castilho, Marcus S; Salvajoli, João V; Pellizzon, Antonio Cassio A; Novaes, Paulo E; Guimarães, Flavio S; Conte, Maria A; Fogaroli, Ricardo C

    2007-01-01

    Brain metastases (BM) are the most common form of intracranial cancer. The incidence of BM seems to have increased over the past decade. Recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) of data from three Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) trials (1200 patients) has allowed three prognostic groups to be identified. More recently a simplified stratification system that uses the evaluation of three main prognostics factors for radiosurgery in BM was developed. To analyze the overall survival rate (OS), prognostic factors affecting outcomes and to estimate the potential improvement in OS for patients with BM from breast cancer, stratified by RPA class and brain metastases score (BS-BM). From January 1996 to December 2004, 174 medical records of patients with diagnosis of BM from breast cancer, who received WBRT were analyzed. The surgery followed by WBRT was used in 15.5% of patients and 84.5% of others patients were submitted at WBRT alone; 108 patients (62.1%) received the fractionation schedule of 30 Gy in 10 fractions. Solitary BM was present in 37.9 % of patients. The prognostic factors evaluated for OS were: age, Karnofsky Performance Status (KPS), number of lesions, localization of lesions, neurosurgery, chemotherapy, absence extracranial disease, RPA class, BS-BM and radiation doses and fractionation. The OS in 1, 2 and 3 years was 33.4 %, 16.7%, and 8.8 %, respectively. The RPA class analysis showed strong relation with OS (p < 0.0001). The median survival time by RPA class in months was: class I 11.7, class II 6.2 and class III 3.0. The significant prognostic factors associated with better OS were: higher KPS (p < 0.0001), neurosurgery (P < 0.0001), single metastases (p = 0.003), BS-BM (p < 0.0001), control primary tumor (p = 0.002) and absence of extracranial metastases (p = 0.001). In multivariate analysis, the factors associated positively with OS were: neurosurgery (p < 0.0001), absence of extracranial metastases (p <0.0001) and RPA class I (p < 0.0001). Our

  12. Conditionally replicating adenovirus expressing TIMP2 increases survival in a mouse model of disseminated ovarian cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherry W Yang

    Full Text Available Ovarian cancer remains difficult to treat mainly due to presentation of the disease at an advanced stage. Conditionally-replicating adenoviruses (CRAds are promising anti-cancer agents that selectively kill the tumor cells. The present study evaluated the efficacy of a novel CRAd (Ad5/3-CXCR4-TIMP2 containing the CXCR4 promoter for selective viral replication in cancer cells together with TIMP2 as a therapeutic transgene, targeting the matrix metalloproteases (MMPs in a murine orthotopic model of disseminated ovarian cancer. An orthotopic model of ovarian cancer was established in athymic nude mice by intraperitonal injection of the human ovarian cancer cell line, SKOV3-Luc, expressing luciferase. Upon confirmation of peritoneal dissemination of the cells by non-invasive imaging, mice were randomly divided into four treatment groups: PBS, Ad-ΔE1-TIMP2, Ad5/3-CXCR4, and Ad5/3-CXCR4-TIMP2. All mice were imaged weekly to monitor tumor growth and were sacrificed upon reaching any of the predefined endpoints, including high tumor burden and significant weight loss along with clinical evidence of pain and distress. Survival analysis was performed using the Log-rank test. The median survival for the PBS cohort was 33 days; for Ad-ΔE1-TIMP2, 39 days; for Ad5/3-CXCR4, 52.5 days; and for Ad5/3-CXCR4-TIMP2, 63 days. The TIMP2-armed CRAd delayed tumor growth and significantly increased survival when compared to the unarmed CRAd. This therapeutic effect was confirmed to be mediated through inhibition of MMP9. Results of the in vivo study support the translational potential of Ad5/3-CXCR4-TIMP2 for treatment of human patients with advanced ovarian cancer.

  13. Osteocalcin protects pancreatic beta cell function and survival under high glucose conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kover, Karen, E-mail: kkover@cmh.edu [Division of Endocrine/Diabetes, Children' s Mercy Hospital & Clinics, Kansas City, MO 64108 (United States); University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Medicine, Kansas City, MO 64108 (United States); Yan, Yun; Tong, Pei Ying; Watkins, Dara; Li, Xiaoyu [Division of Endocrine/Diabetes, Children' s Mercy Hospital & Clinics, Kansas City, MO 64108 (United States); University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Medicine, Kansas City, MO 64108 (United States); Tasch, James; Hager, Melissa [Kansas City University Medical Biosciences, Kansas City, MO (United States); Clements, Mark; Moore, Wayne V. [Division of Endocrine/Diabetes, Children' s Mercy Hospital & Clinics, Kansas City, MO 64108 (United States); University of Missouri-Kansas City School of Medicine, Kansas City, MO 64108 (United States)

    2015-06-19

    Diabetes is characterized by progressive beta cell dysfunction and loss due in part to oxidative stress that occurs from gluco/lipotoxicity. Treatments that directly protect beta cell function and survival in the diabetic milieu are of particular interest. A growing body of evidence suggests that osteocalcin, an abundant non-collagenous protein of bone, supports beta cell function and proliferation. Based on previous gene expression data by microarray, we hypothesized that osteocalcin protects beta cells from glucose-induced oxidative stress. To test our hypothesis we cultured isolated rat islets and INS-1E cells in the presence of normal, high, or high glucose ± osteocalcin for up to 72 h. Oxidative stress and viability/mitochondrial function were measured by H{sub 2}O{sub 2} assay and Alamar Blue assay, respectively. Caspase 3/7 activity was also measured as a marker of apoptosis. A functional test, glucose stimulated insulin release, was conducted and expression of genes/protein was measured by qRT-PCR/western blot/ELISA. Osteocalcin treatment significantly reduced high glucose-induced H{sub 2}O{sub 2} levels while maintaining viability/mitochondrial function. Osteocalcin also significantly improved glucose stimulated insulin secretion and insulin content in rat islets after 48 h of high glucose exposure compared to untreated islets. As expected sustained high glucose down-regulated gene/protein expression of INS1 and BCL2 while increasing TXNIP expression. Interestingly, osteocalcin treatment reversed the effects of high glucose on gene/protein expression. We conclude that osteocalcin can protect beta cells from the negative effects of glucose-induced oxidative stress, in part, by reducing TXNIP expression, thereby preserving beta cell function and survival. - Highlights: • Osteocalcin reduces glucose-induced oxidative stress in beta cells. • Osteocalcin preserves beta cell function and survival under stress conditions. • Osteocalcin reduces glucose

  14. Osteocalcin protects pancreatic beta cell function and survival under high glucose conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kover, Karen; Yan, Yun; Tong, Pei Ying; Watkins, Dara; Li, Xiaoyu; Tasch, James; Hager, Melissa; Clements, Mark; Moore, Wayne V.

    2015-01-01

    Diabetes is characterized by progressive beta cell dysfunction and loss due in part to oxidative stress that occurs from gluco/lipotoxicity. Treatments that directly protect beta cell function and survival in the diabetic milieu are of particular interest. A growing body of evidence suggests that osteocalcin, an abundant non-collagenous protein of bone, supports beta cell function and proliferation. Based on previous gene expression data by microarray, we hypothesized that osteocalcin protects beta cells from glucose-induced oxidative stress. To test our hypothesis we cultured isolated rat islets and INS-1E cells in the presence of normal, high, or high glucose ± osteocalcin for up to 72 h. Oxidative stress and viability/mitochondrial function were measured by H 2 O 2 assay and Alamar Blue assay, respectively. Caspase 3/7 activity was also measured as a marker of apoptosis. A functional test, glucose stimulated insulin release, was conducted and expression of genes/protein was measured by qRT-PCR/western blot/ELISA. Osteocalcin treatment significantly reduced high glucose-induced H 2 O 2 levels while maintaining viability/mitochondrial function. Osteocalcin also significantly improved glucose stimulated insulin secretion and insulin content in rat islets after 48 h of high glucose exposure compared to untreated islets. As expected sustained high glucose down-regulated gene/protein expression of INS1 and BCL2 while increasing TXNIP expression. Interestingly, osteocalcin treatment reversed the effects of high glucose on gene/protein expression. We conclude that osteocalcin can protect beta cells from the negative effects of glucose-induced oxidative stress, in part, by reducing TXNIP expression, thereby preserving beta cell function and survival. - Highlights: • Osteocalcin reduces glucose-induced oxidative stress in beta cells. • Osteocalcin preserves beta cell function and survival under stress conditions. • Osteocalcin reduces glucose-induced TXNIP

  15. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1994 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Muir, William D.

    1995-02-01

    In 1994, the National Marine Fisheries Service and the University of Washington completed the second year of a multi-year study to estimate survival of juvenile salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp.) passing through the dams and reservoirs of the Snake River. Actively migrating smolts were collected at selected locations above, at, and below Lower Granite Dam, tagged with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags, and released to continue their downstream migration. Survival estimates were calculated using the Single-Release, Modified Single-Release, and Paired-Release Models.

  16. Conditional survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sasaki, Koji; Kantarjian, Hagop M; Jain, Preetesh; Jabbour, Elias J; Ravandi, Farhad; Konopleva, Marina; Borthakur, Gautam; Takahashi, Koichi; Pemmaraju, Naveen; Daver, Naval; Pierce, Sherry A; O'Brien, Susan M; Cortes, Jorge E

    2016-01-15

    Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) significantly improve survival in patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase (CML-CP). Conditional probability provides survival information in patients who have already survived for a specific period of time after treatment. Cumulative response and survival data from 6 consecutive frontline TKI clinical trials were analyzed. Conditional probability was calculated for failure-free survival (FFS), transformation-free survival (TFS), event-free survival (EFS), and overall survival (OS) according to depth of response within 1 year of the initiation of TKIs, including complete cytogenetic response, major molecular response, and molecular response with a 4-log or 4.5-log reduction. A total of 483 patients with a median follow-up of 99.4 months from the initiation of treatment with TKIs were analyzed. Conditional probabilities of FFS, TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year for patients alive after 12 months of therapy ranged from 92.0% to 99.1%, 98.5% to 100%, 96.2% to 99.6%, and 96.8% to 99.7%, respectively. Conditional FFS for 1 additional year did not improve with a deeper response each year. Conditional probabilities of TFS, EFS, and OS for 1 additional year were maintained at >95% during the period. In the era of TKIs, patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in chronic phase who survived for a certain number of years maintained excellent clinical outcomes in each age group. Cancer 2016;122:238-248. © 2015 American Cancer Society. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

  17. Factors Affecting Pathogen Survival in Finished Dairy Compost with Different Particle Sizes Under Greenhouse Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diao, Junshu; Chen, Zhao; Gong, Chao; Jiang, Xiuping

    2015-09-01

    This study investigated the survival of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Salmonella Typhimurium in finished dairy compost with different particle sizes during storage as affected by moisture content and temperature under greenhouse conditions. The mixture of E. coli O157:H7 and S. Typhimurium strains was inoculated into the finished composts with moisture contents of 20, 30, and 40%, separately. The finished compost samples were then sieved into 3 different particle sizes (>1000, 500-1000, and 500 μm) and stored under greenhouse conditions. For compost samples with moisture contents of 20 and 30%, the average Salmonella reductions in compost samples with particle sizes of >1000, 500-1000, and 500 μm were 2.15, 2.27, and 2.47 log colony-forming units (CFU) g(-1) within 5 days of storage in summer, respectively, as compared with 1.60, 2.03, and 2.26 log CFU g(-1) in late fall, respectively, and 2.61, 3.33, and 3.67 log CFU g(-1) in winter, respectively. The average E. coli O157:H7 reductions in compost samples with particle sizes of >1000, 500-1000, and 500 μm were 1.98, 2.30, and 2.54 log CFU g(-1) within 5 days of storage in summer, respectively, as compared with 1.70, 2.56, and 2.90 log CFU g(-1) in winter, respectively. Our results revealed that both Salmonella and E. coli O157:H7 in compost samples with larger particle size survived better than those with smaller particle sizes, and the initial rapid moisture loss in compost may contribute to the fast inactivation of pathogens in the finished compost. For the same season, the pathogens in the compost samples with the same particle size survived much better at the initial moisture content of 20% compared to 40%.

  18. Protein kinase G confers survival advantage to Mycobacterium tuberculosis during latency-like conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Mehak Zahoor; Bhaskar, Ashima; Upadhyay, Sandeep; Kumari, Pooja; Rajmani, Raju S; Jain, Preeti; Singh, Amit; Kumar, Dhiraj; Bhavesh, Neel Sarovar; Nandicoori, Vinay Kumar

    2017-09-29

    Protein kinase G (PknG), a thioredoxin-fold-containing eukaryotic-like serine/threonine protein kinase, is a virulence factor in Mycobacterium tuberculosis , required for inhibition of phagolysosomal fusion. Here, we unraveled novel functional facets of PknG during latency-like conditions. We found that PknG mediates persistence under stressful conditions like hypoxia and abets drug tolerance. PknG mutant displayed minimal growth in nutrient-limited conditions, suggesting its role in modulating cellular metabolism. Intracellular metabolic profiling revealed that PknG is necessary for efficient metabolic adaptation during hypoxia. Notably, the PknG mutant exhibited a reductive shift in mycothiol redox potential and compromised stress response. Exposure to antibiotics and hypoxic environment resulted in higher oxidative shift in mycothiol redox potential of PknG mutant compared with the wild type. Persistence during latency-like conditions required kinase activity and thioredoxin motifs of PknG and is mediated through phosphorylation of a central metabolic regulator GarA. Finally, using a guinea pig model of infection, we assessed the in vivo role of PknG in manifestation of disease pathology and established a role for PknG in the formation of stable granuloma, hallmark structures of latent tuberculosis. Taken together, PknG-mediated GarA phosphorylation is important for maintenance of both mycobacterial physiology and redox poise, an axis that is dispensable for survival under normoxic conditions but is critical for non-replicating persistence of mycobacteria. In conclusion, we propose that PknG probably acts as a modulator of latency-associated signals. © 2017 by The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Inc.

  19. Factors predictive of survival and estimated years of life lost in the decade following nontraumatic and traumatic spinal cord injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hatch, B B; Wood-Wentz, C M; Therneau, T M; Walker, M G; Payne, J M; Reeves, R K

    2017-06-01

    Retrospective chart review. To identify factors predictive of survival after spinal cord injury (SCI). Tertiary care institution. Multiple-variable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis for 759 patients with SCI (535 nontraumatic and 221 traumatic) included age, sex, completeness of injury, level of injury, functional independence measure (FIM) scores, rehabilitation length of stay and SCI cause. Estimated years of life lost in the decade after injury was calculated for patients vs uninjured controls. Median follow-up was 11.4 years. Population characteristics included paraplegia, 58%; complete injury, 11%; male sex, 64%; and median rehabilitation length of stay, 16 days. Factors independently predictive of decreased survival were increased age (+10 years; hazard ratio (HR (95% CI)), 1.6 (1.4-1.7)), male sex (1.3 (1.0-1.6)), lower dismissal FIM score (-10 points; 1.3 (1.2-1.3)) and all nontraumatic causes. Metastatic cancer had the largest decrease in survival (HR (95% CI), 13.3 (8.7-20.2)). Primary tumors (HR (95% CI), 2.5 (1.7-3.8)), vascular (2.5 (1.6-3.8)), musculoskeletal/stenosis (1.7 (1.2-2.5)) and other nontraumatic SCI (2.3 (1.5-3.6)) were associated with decreased survival. Ten-year survival was decreased in nontraumatic SCI (mean (s.d.), 1.8 (0.3) years lost), with largest decreases in survival for metastatic cancer and spinal cord ischemia. Age, male sex and lower dismissal FIM score were associated with decreased survival, but neither injury severity nor level was associated with it. Survival after SCI varies depending on SCI cause, with survival better after traumatic SCI than after nontraumatic SCI. Metastatic cancer and vascular ischemia were associated with the greatest survival reduction.

  20. New graphic AUC-based method to estimate overall survival benefit: pomalidomide reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenix-Caballero, S; Diaz-Navarro, J; Prieto-Callejero, B; Rios-Sanchez, E; Alegre-del Rey, E J; Borrero-Rubio, J M

    2016-02-01

    Difference in median survival is an erratic measure and sometimes does not provide a good assessment of survival benefit. The aim of this study was to reanalyse the overall survival benefit of pomalidomide from pivotal clinical trial using a new area under curve (AUC)-based method. In the pivotal trial, pomalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone showed a significant survival benefit over high-dose dexamethasone, with a difference between medians of 4.6 months. The new AUC method applied to the survival curves, obtained an overall survival benefit of 2.6 months for the pomalidomide treatment. This average difference in OS was calculated for the 61.5% of patients for whom the time to event is reliable enough. This 2-month differential would have major clinical and pharmacoeconomic implications, on both cost-effectiveness studies and on the willingness of the healthcare systems to pay for this treatment. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  1. Effect of Shadowing on Survival of Bacteria under Conditions Simulating the Martian Atmosphere and UV Radiation▿ †

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman, Shariff; Peeters, Zan; La Duc, Myron T.; Mancinelli, Rocco; Ehrenfreund, Pascale; Venkateswaran, Kasthuri

    2008-01-01

    Spacecraft-associated spores and four non-spore-forming bacterial isolates were prepared in Atacama Desert soil suspensions and tested both in solution and in a desiccated state to elucidate the shadowing effect of soil particulates on bacterial survival under simulated Martian atmospheric and UV irradiation conditions. All non-spore-forming cells that were prepared in nutrient-depleted, 0.2-μm-filtered desert soil (DSE) microcosms and desiccated for 75 days on aluminum died, whereas cells prepared similarly in 60-μm-filtered desert soil (DS) microcosms survived such conditions. Among the bacterial cells tested, Microbacterium schleiferi and Arthrobacter sp. exhibited elevated resistance to 254-nm UV irradiation (low-pressure Hg lamp), and their survival indices were comparable to those of DS- and DSE-associated Bacillus pumilus spores. Desiccated DSE-associated spores survived exposure to full Martian UV irradiation (200 to 400 nm) for 5 min and were only slightly affected by Martian atmospheric conditions in the absence of UV irradiation. Although prolonged UV irradiation (5 min to 12 h) killed substantial portions of the spores in DSE microcosms (∼5- to 6-log reduction with Martian UV irradiation), dramatic survival of spores was apparent in DS-spore microcosms. The survival of soil-associated wild-type spores under Martian conditions could have repercussions for forward contamination of extraterrestrial environments, especially Mars. PMID:18083857

  2. Influence of environmental conditions on the regenerative capacity and the survivability of Elodea nuttallii fragments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Markus A. Hoffmann

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The presented study was conducted to determine which environmental factors and conditions can affect the regenerative capacity and survivability of Elodea nuttallii [o1] and therefore the efficiency of mechanical management methods like cutting and harvesting. The influence of water temperature, light intensity and nutrient concentration in the sediment on the survivability and regenerative capacity of the invasive species E. nuttallii was determined in three laboratory and one field experiments. E. nuttallii fragments with one to four nodes were stored in aquaria under constant temperature and/or light conditions. To examine the influence of water temperature, four aquaria were kept at a constant water temperature of either 15°C or 20°C. The influence of light intensity was studied by shading the aquaria with different types of mesh. The fragments were stored at constant light intensities of 215, 161, 86 and 31 µmol photons m–2 s–1. Fragments in aquaria filled with sediment with 20 µg P2O5-P g–1 soil, 150 µg P2O5-P g–1 soil or without sediment were studied to determine the influence of the sediment. The results of the laboratory experiments showed how the mechanical management methods are most efficient during periods with low water temperatures, high turbidity or low global irradiation and nutrient poor waters. The field experiment was designed to study the influence of the nutrient compositions in the sediment on the growth and regenerative capacity of rooted E. nuttallii. E. nuttallii fragments were planted in compartments treated with PO43-- and/or NH4+-fertiliser and were trimmed after six weeks. The experiment revealed that the growth before a harvest and the growth after a harvest (regenerative capacity differ significantly, depending on the nutrient composition in the substrate. An increase of the PO43- concentration in the sediment, for example, reduced the growth of E. nuttallii before the harvest, but increased the

  3. Shifting paradigms in the estimation of survival for castration-resistant prostate cancer: A tertiary academic center experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afshar, Mehran; Evison, Felicity; James, Nicholas D; Patel, Prashant

    2015-08-01

    Castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) has retained a guarded prognosis, with historical survival estimates of 18 to 24 months. However, the landscape of available therapy has changed, and the emphasis has altered from supportive to active treatment. Few large series from real-world populations exist in the contemporary era with fully mature survival data to confirm the indication based on clinical trials that patients with CRPC are surviving far longer than the historical estimates. We aim to review a large patient cohort with CRPC and provide mature survival data. Using the electronic histopathology database at Queen Elizabeth Hospital, Birmingham, UK, all prostate-specific antigentest results between April 2006 and September 2007 were extracted, and patients satisfying the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) definition of hormone failure were identified. Electronic records were reviewed and variables were collected, including survival, treatment, biochemistry, histopathology, and demographics. Probability of survival, and of developing metastasis or CRPC, was determined using the Kaplan-Meier method. Patients were stratified into 3 groups, namely, D0--no metastasis at diagnosis but later appearance, D1--no metastasis at diagnosis or at last follow-up, and D2--metastasis at diagnosis. From 8,062 patient-prostate-specific antigen episodes, we identified 447 patients meeting the criteria. A notes review revealed 147 patients with CRPC. Median overall survival (OS) from diagnosis was 84.7 months (95% CI: 73-89), and 129 deaths had occurred (88%). Median OS from diagnosis for D0, D1, and D2 patients was 100.4, 180.1, and 58.9 months, respectively (Pdata benefit clinicians and patients in understanding prognosis and treatment choices. Importantly, our patients were diagnosed before the current wave of novel therapeutics for CRPC, so survival for men diagnosed today may be more than our findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Survival probabilities of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta estimated from capture-mark-recapture data in the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paolo Casale

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Survival probabilities of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta are estimated for the first time in the Mediterranean by analysing 3254 tagging and 134 re-encounter data from this region. Most of these turtles were juveniles found at sea. Re-encounters were live resightings and dead recoveries and data were analysed with Barker’s model, a modified version of the Cormack-Jolly-Seber model which can combine recapture, live resighting and dead recovery data. An annual survival probability of 0.73 (CI 95% = 0.67-0.78; n=3254 was obtained, and should be considered as a conservative estimate due to an unknown, though not negligible, tag loss rate. This study makes a preliminary estimate of the survival probabilities of in-water developmental stages for the Mediterranean population of endangered loggerhead sea turtles and provides the first insights into the magnitude of the suspected human-induced mortality in the region. The model used here for the first time on sea turtles could be used to obtain survival estimates from other data sets with few or no true recaptures but with other types of re-encounter data, which are a common output of tagging programmes involving these wide-ranging animals.

  5. Survival advantage in black versus white men with CKD: effect of estimated GFR and case mix.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovesdy, Csaba P; Quarles, L Darryl; Lott, Evan H; Lu, Jun Ling; Ma, Jennie Z; Molnar, Miklos Z; Kalantar-Zadeh, Kamyar

    2013-08-01

    Black dialysis patients have significantly lower mortality compared with white patients, in contradistinction to the higher mortality seen in blacks in the general population. It is unclear whether a similar paradox exists in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (CKD), and if it does, what its underlying reasons are. Historical cohort. 518,406 white and 52,402 black male US veterans with non-dialysis-dependent CKD stages 3-5. Black race. We examined overall and CKD stage-specific all-cause mortality using parametric survival models. The effect of sociodemographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and laboratory characteristics on the observed differences was explored in multivariable models. During a median follow-up of 4.7 years, 172,093 patients died (mortality rate, 71.0 [95% CI, 70.6-71.3] per 1,000 patient-years). Black race was associated with significantly lower crude mortality (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.97; P case-mix and laboratory characteristics occurring during the course of kidney disease. Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

  6. Estimating the probability of survival of individual shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata mill.) trees

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sudip Shrestha; Thomas B. Lynch; Difei Zhang; James M. Guldin

    2012-01-01

    A survival model is needed in a forest growth system which predicts the survival of trees on individual basis or on a stand basis (Gertner, 1989). An individual-tree modeling approach is one of the better methods available for predicting growth and yield as it provides essential information about particular tree species; tree size, tree quality and tree present status...

  7. Embryo transcriptome response to environmental factors: implication for its survival under suboptimal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salilew-Wondim, Dessie; Tesfaye, Dawit; Hoelker, Michael; Schellander, Karl

    2014-09-01

    After its formation, the mammalian zygote undergoes a series of morphological, physiological and biochemical alterations prior to undergoing cell differentiation. The zygote is then transformed into a complex multicellular organism in a defined time window which may differ between species. These orderly embryonic developmental events are tightly regulated by temporal and spatial activation and/or deactivation of genes and gene products. This phenomenon may in turn be dependent on the intrinsic characteristics of the embryo itself, the physiological and biochemical composition of the maternal environment or by in vitro culture condition. In fact, when embryos are subjected to suboptimal culture condition, some of the embryos may escape the environmental stress by activating certain transcripts and some others which are unable to activate anti-stress agents may die or exhibit abnormal development. This phenomenon may partly depend on transcripts and proteins stored during oogenesis. Indeed after embryonic genome activation, the embryo destiny is governed by its own transcripts and protein synthesized over time. Therefore, this review begins by highlighting the type and quality of transcripts accumulated or degraded during oogenesis and its impact on the embryo survival. Thereafter, emphasis is given to the transcriptome response of preimplantation embryos to suboptimal culture conditions. In addition, the long term effect of preimplantation culture environment on the transcriptome response embryos/fetus during peri and post implantation has been addressed. Finally, a brief summary of the epigenetic control of culture induced genetic variation of the embryos has been highlighted. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. stochastic estimation of transmissivity fields conditioned to flow connectivity data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freixas, Genis; Fernàndez-Garcia, Daniel; Sanchez-vila, Xavier

    2017-04-01

    Most methods for hydraulic parameter interpretation rely on a number of simplifications regarding the homogeneity of the underlying porous media. This way, the actual heterogeneity of any natural parameter, such as transmissivity, is transferred to the estimated in a way heavily dependent on the interpretation method used. An example is a pumping test, in most cases interpreted by means of the Cooper-Jacob method, which implicitly assumes a homogeneous isotropic confined aquifer. It was shown that the estimates obtained from this method when applied to a real site are not local values, but still have a physical meaning; the estimated transmissivity is equal to the effective transmissivity characteristic of the regional scale, while the log-ratio of the estimated storage coefficient with respect to the actual real value (assumed constant), indicated by , is an indicator of flow connectivity, representative of the scale given by the distance between the pumping and the observation wells. In this work we propose a methodology to use together with actual measurements of the log transmissivity at selected points to obtain a map of the best local transmissivity estimates using cokriging. Since the interpolation involves two variables measured at different support scales, a critical point is the estimation of the covariance and crosscovariance matrices, involving some quadratures that are obtained using some simplified approach. The method was applied to a synthetic field displaying statistical anisotropy, showing that the use of connectivity indicators mixed with the local values provide a better representation of the local value map, in particular regarding the enhanced representation of the continuity of structures corresponding to either high or low values.

  9. SURVIVAL OF MICROORGANISMS FROM MODERN PROBIOTICS IN MODEL CONDITIONS OF THE INTESTINE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kabluchko TV

    2017-03-01

    .3, later after centrifugation and washing, they were incubated for 3 hours in intestinal model environment (bile salts 3% pancreatin 0.1%, pH 7.0. Inoculation was performed before incubation, after incubation in the gastric medium and after incubation in intestinal medium. We used the medium corresponding to the studied genus of bacteria - MRS-environment for lactobacilli, bifidum for Bifidobacterium, sabouraud medium for the isolation of yeasts and fungi and endo agar for the isolation of Enterobacteriaceae. We assessed the quantity of CFU before and after impact. Results and discussion. After incubation in a simulated gastric environment, bacteria of the type Lactobacillus and Bifidobacterium did not survive and were not defined. Only Bacillus coagulans and Saccharomyces boulardii were resistant. These microorganisms grew after incubation in the same amount as before incubation - 105-6 and 107-8 CFU respectively. Bacillus clausii also survived in these conditions, but to a lesser extent: initially - 107 CFU, after incubation - 105 CFU. After staying in model environment of the duodenum Bacillus coagulans and Saccharomyces boulardii were still fully viable, and the number of germinating Bacillus clausii bacteria decreased by an order - up to 104 CFU. Conclusion. The probiotics containing Bacillus coagulans and Saccharomyces boulardii showed complete resistance to the impact of the model environment of the stomach and duodenum, Bacillus clausii was partially resistant. It leads to conclusion that probiotic drugs containing lactobacilli and bifidobacteria, cannot withstand the aggressive environmental influence of the stomach and duodenum and become inactivated under their influence. Probiotic drugs Enterol containing yeast Saccharomyces boulardii, and Laktovit Forte containing the spore-forming bacterium Bacillus coagulans are completely resistant to the action of the model environment of the stomach and duodenum.

  10. Paternal care decreases foraging activity and body condition, but does not impose survival costs to caring males in a Neotropical arachnid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Requena, Gustavo S; Buzatto, Bruno A; Martins, Eduardo G; Machado, Glauco

    2012-01-01

    Exclusive paternal care is the rarest form of parental investment in nature and theory predicts that the maintenance of this behavior depends on the balance between costs and benefits to males. Our goal was to assess costs of paternal care in the harvestman Iporangaia pustulosa, for which the benefits of this behavior in terms of egg survival have already been demonstrated. We evaluated energetic costs and mortality risks associated to paternal egg-guarding in the field. We quantified foraging activity of males and estimated how their body condition is influenced by the duration of the caring period. Additionally, we conducted a one-year capture-mark-recapture study and estimated apparent survival probabilities of caring and non-caring males to assess potential survival costs of paternal care. Our results indicate that caring males forage less frequently than non-caring individuals (males and females) and that their body condition deteriorates over the course of the caring period. Thus, males willing to guard eggs may provide to females a fitness-enhancing gift of cost-free care of their offspring. Caring males, however, did not show lower survival probabilities when compared to both non-caring males and females. Reduction in mortality risks as a result of remaining stationary, combined with the benefits of improving egg survival, may have played an important and previously unsuspected role favoring the evolution of paternal care. Moreover, males exhibiting paternal care could also provide an honest signal of their quality as offspring defenders, and thus female preference for caring males could be responsible for maintaining the trait.

  11. Paternal care decreases foraging activity and body condition, but does not impose survival costs to caring males in a Neotropical arachnid.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustavo S Requena

    Full Text Available Exclusive paternal care is the rarest form of parental investment in nature and theory predicts that the maintenance of this behavior depends on the balance between costs and benefits to males. Our goal was to assess costs of paternal care in the harvestman Iporangaia pustulosa, for which the benefits of this behavior in terms of egg survival have already been demonstrated. We evaluated energetic costs and mortality risks associated to paternal egg-guarding in the field. We quantified foraging activity of males and estimated how their body condition is influenced by the duration of the caring period. Additionally, we conducted a one-year capture-mark-recapture study and estimated apparent survival probabilities of caring and non-caring males to assess potential survival costs of paternal care. Our results indicate that caring males forage less frequently than non-caring individuals (males and females and that their body condition deteriorates over the course of the caring period. Thus, males willing to guard eggs may provide to females a fitness-enhancing gift of cost-free care of their offspring. Caring males, however, did not show lower survival probabilities when compared to both non-caring males and females. Reduction in mortality risks as a result of remaining stationary, combined with the benefits of improving egg survival, may have played an important and previously unsuspected role favoring the evolution of paternal care. Moreover, males exhibiting paternal care could also provide an honest signal of their quality as offspring defenders, and thus female preference for caring males could be responsible for maintaining the trait.

  12. Use of a Phase Transition Concept for Traffic Flow Condition Estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larin Oleg N.

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The article covers the main models of traffic flow conditions, analyzes the condition estimation criteria, and provides the classification of models. The article provides the grounds for the use of the phase transition concept for traffic flow condition estimation. The models of the aggregate condition of free and congested traffic have been developed, the phase boundaries between free and congested traffic have been defined. Applicability conditions for the models of the aggregate condition of have been analyzed.

  13. Estimation of weights for the Monetary Conditions Index in Poland

    OpenAIRE

    Andrzej Toroj

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we follow the econometric approach to assess relative importance of real interest rate and real exchange rate for the monetary conditions in Poland, quantified as weights for Monetary Conditions Index (MCI). We consider both single- and multiple-equation specifications proposed in the literature with an application to Poland. Although MCI is nowadays broadly considered a rather obsolete indicator in monetary policy conduct, we argue that the econometric framework used for this ...

  14. Predicting long-term risk for relationship dissolution using nonparametric conditional survival trees.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kliem, Sören; Weusthoff, Sarah; Hahlweg, Kurt; Baucom, Katherine J W; Baucom, Brian R

    2015-12-01

    Identifying risk factors for divorce or separation is an important step in the prevention of negative individual outcomes and societal costs associated with relationship dissolution. Programs that aim to prevent relationship distress and dissolution typically focus on changing processes that occur during couple conflict, although the predictive ability of conflict-specific variables has not been examined in the context of other factors related to relationship dissolution. The authors examine whether emotional responding and communication during couple conflict predict relationship dissolution after controlling for overall relationship quality and individual well-being. Using nonparametric conditional survival trees, the study at hand simultaneously examined the predictive abilities of physiological (systolic and diastolic blood pressure, heart rate, cortisol) and behavioral (fundamental frequency; f0) indices of emotional responding, as well as observationally coded positive and negative communication behavior, on long-term relationship stability after controlling for relationship satisfaction and symptoms of depression. One hundred thirty-six spouses were assessed after participating in a randomized clinical trial of a relationship distress prevention program as well as 11 years thereafter; 32.5% of the couples' relationships had dissolved by follow up. For men, the only significant predictor of relationship dissolution was cortisol change score (p = .012). For women, only f0 range was a significant predictor of relationship dissolution (p = .034). These findings highlight the importance of emotional responding during couple conflict for long-term relationship stability. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  15. Impact of conditioning hyperglycemic on myocardial infarction rats: Cardiac cell survival factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malfitano, Christiane; de Souza Junior, Alcione Lescano; Irigoyen, Maria Cláudia

    2014-01-01

    While clinical data have suggested that the diabetic heart is more susceptible to ischemic heart disease (IHD), animal data have so far pointed to a lower probability of IHD. Thus, the aim of this present review is to look at these conflicting results and discuss the protective mechanisms that conditioned hyperglycemia may confer to the heart against ischemic injury. Several mechanisms have been proposed to explain the cardioprotective action of high glucose exposure, namely, up-regulation of anti-apoptotic factor Bcl-2, inactivation of pro-apoptotic factor bad, and activation of pro-survival factors such as protein kinase B (Akt), vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), hypoxia inducible factor-1α and protein kinase C-ε. Indeed, cytosolic increase in Ca2+ concentration, the mitochondrial permeability transition pore, plays a key role in the genesis of ischemic injury. Previous studies have shown that the diabetic heart decreased Na+/Ca2+ and Na+/H+ exchanger activity and as such it accumulates less Ca2+ in cardiomyocyte, thus preventing cardiac injury and the associated heart dysfunctions. In addition, the expression of VEGF in diabetic animals leads to increased capillary density before myocardial infarction. Despite poor prognostic in the long-term, all these results suggest that diabetes mellitus and consequently hyperglycemia may indeed play a cardioprotective role against myocardial infarction in the short term. PMID:24976917

  16. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin : Evaluating Wetland Restoration Projects in the Columbia River Estuary using Hydroacoustic Telemetry Arrays to Estimate Movement, Survival, and Residence Times of Juvenile Salmonids, Volume XXII (22).

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perry, Russell W.; Skalski, John R.

    2008-08-01

    Wetlands in the Columbia River estuary are actively being restored by reconnecting these habitats to the estuary, making more wetland habitats available to rearing and migrating juvenile salmon. Concurrently, thousands of acoustically tagged juvenile salmonids are released into the Columbia River to estimate their survival as they migrate through the estuary. Here, we develop a release-recapture model that makes use of these tagged fish to measure the success of wetland restoration projects in terms of their contribution to populations of juvenile salmon. Specifically, our model estimates the fraction of the population that enter the wetland, survival within the wetland, and the mean residence time of fish within the wetland. Furthermore, survival in mainstem Columbia River downstream of the wetland can be compared between fish that remained the mainstem and entered the wetland. These conditional survival estimates provide a means of testing whether the wetland improves the subsequent survival of juvenile salmon by fostering growth or improving their condition. Implementing such a study requires little additional cost because it takes advantage of fish already released to estimate survival through the estuary. Thus, such a study extracts the maximum information at minimum cost from research projects that typically cost millions of dollars annually.

  17. Environmental conditions and prey-switching by a seabird predator impact juvenile salmon survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Brian K.; Santora, Jarrod A.; Henderson, Mark J.; Warzybok, Pete; Jahncke, Jaime; Bradley, Russell W.; Huff, David D.; Schroeder, Isaac D.; Nelson, Peter; Field, John C.; Ainley, David G.

    2017-01-01

    Due to spatio-temporal variability of lower trophic-level productivity along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), predators must be capable of switching prey or foraging areas in response to changes in environmental conditions and available forage. The Gulf of the Farallones in central California represents a biodiversity hotspot and contains the largest common murre (Uria aalge) colonies along the CCE. During spring, one of the West Coast's most important Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations out-migrates into the Gulf of the Farallones. We quantify the effect of predation on juvenile Chinook salmon associated with ecosystem-level variability by integrating long-term time series of environmental conditions (upwelling, river discharge), forage species abundance within central CCE, and population size, at-sea distribution, and diet of the common murre. Our results demonstrate common murres typically forage in the vicinity of their offshore breeding sites, but in years in which their primary prey, pelagic young-of-year rockfish (Sebastesspp.), are less available they forage for adult northern anchovies (Engraulis mordax) nearshore. Incidentally, while foraging inshore, common murre consumption of out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon, which are collocated with northern anchovy, increases and population survival of the salmon is significantly reduced. Results support earlier findings that show timing and strength of upwelling, and the resultant forage fish assemblage, is related to Chinook salmon recruitment variability in the CCE, but we extend those results by demonstrating the significance of top-down impacts associated with these bottom-up dynamics. Our results demonstrate the complexity of ecosystem interactions and impacts between higher trophic-level predators and their prey, complexities necessary to quantify in order to parameterize ecosystem models and evaluate likely outcomes of ecosystem management options.

  18. Environmental conditions and prey-switching by a seabird predator impact juvenile salmon survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Brian K.; Santora, Jarrod A.; Henderson, Mark J.; Warzybok, Pete; Jahncke, Jaime; Bradley, Russell W.; Huff, David D.; Schroeder, Isaac D.; Nelson, Peter; Field, John C.; Ainley, David G.

    2017-10-01

    Due to spatio-temporal variability of lower trophic-level productivity along the California Current Ecosystem (CCE), predators must be capable of switching prey or foraging areas in response to changes in environmental conditions and available forage. The Gulf of the Farallones in central California represents a biodiversity hotspot and contains the largest common murre (Uria aalge) colonies along the CCE. During spring, one of the West Coast's most important Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) populations out-migrates into the Gulf of the Farallones. We quantify the effect of predation on juvenile Chinook salmon associated with ecosystem-level variability by integrating long-term time series of environmental conditions (upwelling, river discharge), forage species abundance within central CCE, and population size, at-sea distribution, and diet of the common murre. Our results demonstrate common murres typically forage in the vicinity of their offshore breeding sites, but in years in which their primary prey, pelagic young-of-year rockfish (Sebastes spp.), are less available they forage for adult northern anchovies (Engraulis mordax) nearshore. Incidentally, while foraging inshore, common murre consumption of out-migrating juvenile Chinook salmon, which are collocated with northern anchovy, increases and population survival of the salmon is significantly reduced. Results support earlier findings that show timing and strength of upwelling, and the resultant forage fish assemblage, is related to Chinook salmon recruitment variability in the CCE, but we extend those results by demonstrating the significance of top-down impacts associated with these bottom-up dynamics. Our results demonstrate the complexity of ecosystem interactions and impacts between higher trophic-level predators and their prey, complexities necessary to quantify in order to parameterize ecosystem models and evaluate likely outcomes of ecosystem management options.

  19. Adrenaline in pro-oxidant conditions elicits intracellular survival pathways in isolated rat cardiomyocytes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa, Vera Marisa; Silva, Renata; Ferreira, Rita; Amado, Francisco; Carvalho, Felix; Bastos, Maria Lourdes de; Albuquerque Carvalho, Rui; Carvalho, Marcia; Remiao, Fernando

    2009-01-01

    In several pathologic conditions, like cardiac ischemia/reperfusion, the sustained elevation of plasma and interstitial catecholamine levels, namely adrenaline (ADR), and the generation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) are hallmarks. The present work aimed to investigate in cardiomyocytes which intracellular signalling pathways are altered by ADR redox ability. To mimic pathologic conditions, freshly isolated calcium tolerant cardiomyocytes from adult rat were incubated with ADR alone or in the presence of a system capable of generating ROS [(xanthine with xanthine oxidase) (X/XO)]. ADR elicited a pro-oxidant signal with generation of reactive species, which was largely magnified by the ROS generating system. However, no change in cardiomyocytes viability was observed. The pro-oxidant signal promoted the translocation to the nucleus of the transcription factors, Heat shock factor-1 (HSF-1) and Nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB). In addition, proteasome activity was compromised in the experimental groups where the generation of reactive species occurred. The decrease in the proteasome activity of the ADR group resulted from its redox sensitivity, since the activity was recovered by adding the ROS scavenger, tiron. Proteasome inhibition seemed to elicit an increase in HSP70 levels. Furthermore, retention of mitochondrial cytochrome c and inhibition of caspase 3 activity were observed by X/XO incubation in presence or absence of ADR. In conclusion, in spite of all the insults inflicted to the cardiomyocytes, they were capable to activate intracellular responses that enabled their survival. These mechanisms, namely the pathways altered by catecholamine proteasome inhibition, should be further characterized, as they could be of relevance in the ischemia preconditioning and the reperfusion injury

  20. Are oysters being bored to death? Influence of Cliona celata on Crassostrea virginica condition, growth and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, John M; O'Shaughnessy, Kathryn A; Diedrich, Grant A; Finelli, Christopher M

    2015-11-17

    The boring sponge Cliona celata is a nuisance species that can have deleterious effects on eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica growth, condition, and survival. Surprisingly, however, these effects have not been well documented and when examined, results have been equi-vocal. In this study, we provide a direct comparison of growth, condition, and survival of sponge-colonized and uncolonized oysters in southeast North Carolina in 2 separate experiments. In the first experiment, sponge-colonized oysters exhibited significantly slower growth rates, reduced condition, and lower survival relative to uncolonized oysters, although results may have been confounded by oyster source. In the second experiment, using smaller oysters from the same source population, growth rate was again significantly reduced in colonized oysters relative to uncolonized oysters, however neither condition nor survival differed. In field surveys of the same population, colonized individuals across a range of sizes demonstrated significantly reduced condition. Further, condition index was negatively correlated with sponge biomass, which was positively correlated with oyster size, suggesting that the impact of the sponge changes with ontogeny. By investigating clearance rates, tissue isotopic and nutrient content, as well as caloric value, this study provides further evidence that sponge presence causes the oysters to divert energy into costly shell maintenance and repair at the expense of shell and somatic growth. Thus, although variable, our results demonstrate negative impacts of sponge infestation on oyster demographics, particularly as oysters grow larger.

  1. Estimation of survival rates and abundance of green turtles along the U.S. West Coast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — To determine abundance and survival rates of the east Pacific green turtles in the northern most foraging grounds, the turtle research groups at SWFSC have been...

  2. Estimates for the probability of survival of electrons in passing through a radiator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Loos, J.

    1977-01-01

    Some calculations on the survival of electrons passing through various radiator thicknesses are tabulated. The results of these calculations should serve as a guide for expected attenuation of electrons in the beam when various Pb radiators are inserted

  3. Fecundity, survival, and growth of the seahorse Hippocampus ingens (Pisces: Syngnathidae under semi-controlled conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.A Ortega-Salas

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Estudiamos la fecundidad, supervivencia, y crecimiento del caballito de mar, Hippocampus ingens en condiciones semi-controladas. Tres machos reproductores silvestres de 14.8, 24.5 y 32.0 g produjeron 1 598, 1 703 y 1 658 jóvenes. La densidad utilizada fue de 12 jóvenes por acuario de 60 l. Se agruparon en 1, 12 y 20 días de nacidos por acuario. La supervivencia fue de 78.5, 38.1 y 41.0 % en 35 días. Se les alimentó con una mezcla de rotíferos B. plicatilis y nauplios de Artemia para después transferirlos a estanques de 100 000 l a una densidad de 50/1 000 l, donde se les alimentó con Artemia adulta durante 60 días más. Crecieron de un promedio de 0.7, 1.5, y 2.7 a 4.5, 5.4 6.7 cm, respectivamente, en 95 días. La temperatura del agua marina utilizada varió de 17 a 23 ºC.We studied fecundity, survival, and growth of the seahorse Hippocampus ingens under semi-controlled conditions. Three wild brood stock mature males of 14.8, 24.5, and 32.0 g released 1 598, 1 703, and 1 658 juveniles. Juvenile stocking densities of 12 were settled in 60-l aquariums in groups of 1, 12, and 20 days old organisms. The rate of survival was 21.5, 61.9, and 59.0 %, respectively, in 35 days. Juveniles were fed a mix diet of rotifers B. plicatilis and Artemia nauplii, then they were transferred to a cement tank of 100 000 l at a density of 50/1 000 l and fed with live adult Artemia for 60 days more. They grew from an average of 0.7, 1.5, and 2.7 to 4.5, 5.4, and 6.7 cm, respectively, in 95 days. The seawater temperature varied from 17 to 23 ºC. Rev. Biol. Trop. 54 (4: 1099-1102. Epub 2006 Dec. 15.

  4. Evaluation of the Survivability of Microorganisms Deposited on Filtering Respiratory Protective Devices under Varying Conditions of Humidity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarzyna Majchrzycka

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Bioaerosols are common biological factors in work environments, which require routine use of filtering respiratory protective devices (FRPDs. Currently, no studies link humidity changes in the filter materials of such devices, during use, with microorganism survivability. Our aim was to determine the microclimate inside FRPDs, by simulating breathing, and to evaluate microorganism survivability under varying humidity conditions. Breathing was simulated using commercial filtering facepiece respirators in a model system. Polypropylene melt-blown nonwoven fabrics with moisture contents of 40%, 80%, and 200%, were used for assessment of microorganisms survivability. A modified AATCC 100-2004 method was used to measure the survivability of ATCC and NCAIM microorganisms: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus subtilis, Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger. During simulation relative humidity under the facepiece increased after 7 min of usage to 84%–92% and temperature increased to 29–30 °C. S. aureus survived the best on filter materials with 40%–200% moisture content. A decrease in survivability was observed for E. coli and C. albicans when mass humidity decreased. We found that B. subtilis and A. niger proliferated for 48–72 h of incubation and then died regardless of the moisture content. In conclusion, our tests showed that the survivability of microorganisms on filter materials depends on the amount of accumulated moisture and microorganism type.

  5. Evaluation of the Survivability of Microorganisms Deposited on Filtering Respiratory Protective Devices under Varying Conditions of Humidity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majchrzycka, Katarzyna; Okrasa, Małgorzata; Skóra, Justyna; Gutarowska, Beata

    2016-01-04

    Bioaerosols are common biological factors in work environments, which require routine use of filtering respiratory protective devices (FRPDs). Currently, no studies link humidity changes in the filter materials of such devices, during use, with microorganism survivability. Our aim was to determine the microclimate inside FRPDs, by simulating breathing, and to evaluate microorganism survivability under varying humidity conditions. Breathing was simulated using commercial filtering facepiece respirators in a model system. Polypropylene melt-blown nonwoven fabrics with moisture contents of 40%, 80%, and 200%, were used for assessment of microorganisms survivability. A modified AATCC 100-2004 method was used to measure the survivability of ATCC and NCAIM microorganisms: Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus subtilis, Candida albicans and Aspergillus niger. During simulation relative humidity under the facepiece increased after 7 min of usage to 84%-92% and temperature increased to 29-30 °C. S. aureus survived the best on filter materials with 40%-200% moisture content. A decrease in survivability was observed for E. coli and C. albicans when mass humidity decreased. We found that B. subtilis and A. niger proliferated for 48-72 h of incubation and then died regardless of the moisture content. In conclusion, our tests showed that the survivability of microorganisms on filter materials depends on the amount of accumulated moisture and microorganism type.

  6. Effect of dendrobium candidum wall. exlindl drop on survival condition and spleen of mice with raddiation injury

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Qiurong; Zhang Guoqing

    2010-01-01

    Objective: To study the effect of Dendrobium candidum Wall. exlindl drop(DCWD) on survival condition and pathological change of spleen of mice with radiation injury. Methods: One hundred and twenty-five BALB/c mice were divided into the control group, irradiation-injured group and DCWD groups which were divided into three groups according to the dose of DCWD. The survival condition of irradiated mice and its pathological change of spleen were observed. Results: The mean survival time of mice in each group irradiated with X-ray were shorter than that in the control group (P < 0.01), but in the DCWD groups survival is longer than that in the irradiation-injured group (P < 0.01). Acute radiation injury of spleen emerged. The pathological change degree was slight in the DCWD groups, and can recover quickly. But there was not conspicuous dose-effect relationship DCWD groups. Conclusion: DCWD can prolong the mean survival time,improve the survival rate of irradiated mice, and relieve the degree of pathological change in spleen of mice with radiation injury; DCWD has certain protective effect on radiation-injury. (authors)

  7. Estimation of Aerodynamic Parameters in Conditions of Measurement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Htang Om Moung

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper discusses the problem of aircraft parameter identification in conditions of measurement noises. It is assumed that all the signals involved into the process of identification are subjects to measurement noises, that is measurement random errors normally distributed. The results of simulation are presented which show the relation between the noises standard deviations and the accuracy of identification.

  8. Survival and weight change among adult individuals of Periplaneta americana (Linnaeus, 1758 (Blattaria, Blattidae subject to various stress conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jucelio Peter Duarte

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Periplaneta americana is a species of great importance to public health, since it can act as a vector of many pathogens and it reaches large populations in urban environments. This is probably due to its ability to resist starvation and desiccation. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of absence of water and food on survival and weight change among adult P. americana individuals and check whether the initial weight of individuals influences on their survival. Four groups having twenty P. americana couples were formed and subject to: I no water or food; II no food; III no water; and IV control group. Insects were isolated according to the groups, which were weighed at the beginning and end of the stress conditions. They remained under these conditions until all individuals in each test group were dead. Stress conditions caused reduction in survival time when compared to the control group. Adults with higher body mass survived longer when deprived only of food, while among those lacking water, weight had no influence on survival. Total weight loss was greater among individuals deprived of water than those deprived only of food.

  9. Survival and weight change among adult individuals of Periplaneta americana (Linnaeus, 1758 (Blattaria, Blattidae subject to various stress conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jucelio Peter Duarte

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/2175-7925.2015v28n2p103 Periplaneta americana is a species of great importance to public health, since it can act as a vector of many pathogens and it reaches large populations in urban environments. This is probably due to its ability to resist starvation and desiccation. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of absence of water and food on survival and weight change among adult P. americana individuals and check whether the initial weight of individuals influences on their survival. Four groups having twenty P. americana couples were formed and subject to: I no water or food; II no food; III no water; and IV control group. Insects were isolated according to the groups, which were weighed at the beginning and end of the stress conditions. They remained under these conditions until all individuals in each test group were dead. Stress conditions caused reduction in survival time when compared to the control group. Adults with higher body mass survived longer when deprived only of food, while among those lacking water, weight had no influence on survival. Total weight loss was greater among individuals deprived of water than those deprived only of food.

  10. The effect of clinical performance on the survival estimates of direct restorations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyou-Li Kim

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Objectives In most retrospective studies, the clinical performance of restorations had not been considered in survival analysis. This study investigated the effect of including the clinically unacceptable cases according to modified United States Public Health Service (USPHS criteria into the failed data on the survival analysis of direct restorations as to the longevity and prognostic variables. Materials and Methods Nine hundred and sixty-seven direct restorations were evaluated. The data of 204 retreated restorations were collected from the records, and clinical performance of 763 restorations in function was evaluated according to modified USPHS criteria by two observers. The longevity and prognostic variables of the restorations were compared with a factor of involving clinically unacceptable cases into the failures using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard model. Results The median survival times of amalgam, composite resin and glass ionomer were 11.8, 11.0 and 6.8 years, respectively. Glass ionomer showed significantly lower longevity than composite resin and amalgam. When clinically unacceptable restorations were included into the failure, the median survival times of them decreased to 8.9, 9.7 and 6.4 years, respectively. Conclusions After considering the clinical performance, composite resin was the only material that showed a difference in the longevity (p < 0.05 and the significantly higher relative risk of student group than professor group disappeared in operator groups. Even in the design of retrospective study, clinical evaluation needs to be included.

  11. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

  12. A note on the conditional density estimate in single functional index model

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we consider estimation of the conditional density of a scalar response variable Y given a Hilbertian random variable X when the observations are linked with a single-index structure. We establish the pointwise and the uniform almost complete convergence (with the rate) of the kernel estimate of this model. As an application, we show how our result can be applied in the prediction problem via the conditional mode estimate. Finally, the estimation of the funct...

  13. Parameter estimation via conditional expectation: a Bayesian inversion

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander

    2016-01-01

    When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp. functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by actual observations of the response of the real system. In a probabilistic setting, Bayes’s theory is the proper mathematical background for this identification process. The possibility of being able to compute a conditional expectation turns out to be crucial for this purpose. We show how this theoretical background can be used in an actual numerical procedure, and shortly discuss various numerical approximations.

  14. Parameter estimation via conditional expectation: a Bayesian inversion

    KAUST Repository

    Matthies, Hermann G.

    2016-08-11

    When a mathematical or computational model is used to analyse some system, it is usual that some parameters resp. functions or fields in the model are not known, and hence uncertain. These parametric quantities are then identified by actual observations of the response of the real system. In a probabilistic setting, Bayes’s theory is the proper mathematical background for this identification process. The possibility of being able to compute a conditional expectation turns out to be crucial for this purpose. We show how this theoretical background can be used in an actual numerical procedure, and shortly discuss various numerical approximations.

  15. Estimating survival probabilities by exposure levels: utilizing vital statistics and complex survey data with mortality follow-up.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landsman, V; Lou, W Y W; Graubard, B I

    2015-05-20

    We present a two-step approach for estimating hazard rates and, consequently, survival probabilities, by levels of general categorical exposure. The resulting estimator utilizes three sources of data: vital statistics data and census data are used at the first step to estimate the overall hazard rate for a given combination of gender and age group, and cohort data constructed from a nationally representative complex survey with linked mortality records, are used at the second step to divide the overall hazard rate by exposure levels. We present an explicit expression for the resulting estimator and consider two methods for variance estimation that account for complex multistage sample design: (1) the leaving-one-out jackknife method, and (2) the Taylor linearization method, which provides an analytic formula for the variance estimator. The methods are illustrated with smoking and all-cause mortality data from the US National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality Files, and the proposed estimator is compared with a previously studied crude hazard rate estimator that uses survey data only. The advantages of a two-step approach and possible extensions of the proposed estimator are discussed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Estimating movement and survival rates of a small saltwater fish using autonomous antenna receiver arrays and passive integrated transponder tags

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudershausen, Paul J.; Buckel, Jeffery A.; Dubreuil, Todd; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Hightower, Joseph E.; Poland, Steven J.; Letcher, Benjamin H.

    2014-01-01

    We evaluated the performance of small (12.5 mm long) passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and custom detection antennas for obtaining fine-scale movement and demographic data of mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus in a salt marsh creek. Apparent survival and detection probability were estimated using a Cormack Jolly Seber (CJS) model fitted to detection data collected by an array of 3 vertical antennas from November 2010 to March 2011 and by a single horizontal antenna from April to August 2011. Movement of mummichogs was monitored during the period when the array of vertical antennas was used. Antenna performance was examined in situ using tags placed in wooden dowels (drones) and in live mummichogs. Of the 44 tagged fish, 42 were resighted over the 9 mo monitoring period. The in situ detection probabilities of the drone and live mummichogs were high (~80-100%) when the ambient water depth was less than ~0.8 m. Upstream and downstream movement of mummichogs was related to hourly water depth and direction of tidal current in a way that maximized time periods over which mummichogs utilized the intertidal vegetated marsh. Apparent survival was lower during periods of colder water temperatures in December 2010 and early January 2011 (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.979) than during other periods of the study (median estimate of daily apparent survival = 0.992). During late fall and winter, temperature had a positive effect on the CJS detection probability of a tagged mummichog, likely due to greater fish activity over warmer periods. During the spring and summer, this pattern reversed possibly due to mummichogs having reduced activity during the hottest periods. This study demonstrates the utility of PIT tags and continuously operating autonomous detection systems for tracking fish at fine temporal scales, and improving estimates of demographic parameters in salt marsh creeks that are difficult or impractical to sample with active fishing gear.

  17. The effects of water type on growth, survival and condition of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2010-02-01

    Feb 1, 2010 ... Available online at http://www.academicjournals.org/AJB ... Feed conversion ratio did not differ significantly among groups. Survival ... industry holds an important place in the global fishery ... The largest market for aquarium.

  18. Smoothed Conditional Scale Function Estimation in AR(1-ARCH(1 Processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lema Logamou Seknewna

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the Smoothed Conditional Scale Function for time series was taken out under the conditional heteroscedastic innovations by imitating the kernel smoothing in nonparametric QAR-QARCH scheme. The estimation was taken out based on the quantile regression methodology proposed by Koenker and Bassett. And the proof of the asymptotic properties of the Conditional Scale Function estimator for this type of process was given and its consistency was shown.

  19. Estimating Health Condition of the Wind Turbine Drivetrain System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Peng Qian

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Condition Monitoring (CM has been considered as an effective method to enhance the reliability of wind turbines and implement cost-effective maintenance. Thus, adopting an efficient approach for condition monitoring of wind turbines is desirable. This paper presents a data-driven model-based CM approach for wind turbines based on the online sequential extreme learning machine (OS-ELM algorithm. A physical kinetic energy correction model is employed to normalize the temperature change to the value at the rated power output to eliminate the effect of variable speed operation of the turbines. The residual signal, obtained by comparing the predicted values and practical measurements, is processed by the physical correction model and then assessed with a Bonferroni interval method for fault diagnosis. Models have been validated using supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA data acquired from an operational wind farm, which contains various types of temperature data of the gearbox. The results show that the proposed method can detect more efficiently both the long-term aging characteristics and the short-term faults of the gearbox.

  20. Human immune cells' behavior and survival under bioenergetically restricted conditions in an in vitro fracture hematoma model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoff, Paula; Maschmeyer, Patrick; Gaber, Timo; Schütze, Tabea; Raue, Tobias; Schmidt-Bleek, Katharina; Dziurla, René; Schellmann, Saskia; Lohanatha, Ferenz Leonard; Röhner, Eric; Ode, Andrea; Burmester, Gerd-Rüdiger; Duda, Georg N; Perka, Carsten; Buttgereit, Frank

    2013-01-01

    The initial inflammatory phase of bone fracture healing represents a critical step for the outcome of the healing process. However, both the mechanisms initiating this inflammatory phase and the function of immune cells present at the fracture site are poorly understood. In order to study the early events within a fracture hematoma, we established an in vitro fracture hematoma model: we cultured hematomas forming during an osteotomy (artificial bone fracture) of the femur during total hip arthroplasty (THA) in vitro under bioenergetically controlled conditions. This model allowed us to monitor immune cell populations, cell survival and cytokine expression during the early phase following a fracture. Moreover, this model enabled us to change the bioenergetical conditions in order to mimic the in vivo situation, which is assumed to be characterized by hypoxia and restricted amounts of nutrients. Using this model, we found that immune cells adapt to hypoxia via the expression of angiogenic factors, chemoattractants and pro-inflammatory molecules. In addition, combined restriction of oxygen and nutrient supply enhanced the selective survival of lymphocytes in comparison with that of myeloid derived cells (i.e., neutrophils). Of note, non-restricted bioenergetical conditions did not show any similar effects regarding cytokine expression and/or different survival rates of immune cell subsets. In conclusion, we found that the bioenergetical conditions are among the crucial factors inducing the initial inflammatory phase of fracture healing and are thus a critical step for influencing survival and function of immune cells in the early fracture hematoma. PMID:23396474

  1. Estimation of thermal sensation during varied air temperature conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katsuura, T; Tabuchi, R; Iwanaga, K; Harada, H; Kikuchi, Y

    1998-03-01

    Seven male students were exposed to four varied air temperature environments: hot (37 degrees C) to neutral (27 degrees C) (HN), neutral to hot (NH), cool (17 degrees C) to neutral (CN), and neutral to cool (NC). The air temperature was maintained at the first condition for 20 min, then was changed to the second condition after 15 min and was held there for 20 min. Each subject wore a T-shirt, briefs, trunks, and socks. Each sat on a chair and was continuously evaluated for thermal sensation, thermal comfort, and air velocity sensation. Some physiological and thermal parameters were also measured every 5 s during the experiment. The correlation between thermal sensation and skin temperature at 15 sites was found to be poor. The subjects felt much warmer during the rising phase of the air temperature (CN, NH) than during the descending phase (HN, NC) at a given mean skin temperature. However, thermal sensation at the same heat flux or at the same value of the difference between skin and air temperature (delta(Tsk - Ta)) was not so different among the four experimental conditions, and the correlation between thermal sensation and heat flux or delta(Tsk - Ta) was fairly good. The multiple regression equation of the thermal sensation (TS) on 15 sites of skin temperature (Tsk; degrees C) was calculated and the coefficient of determination (R*2) was found to be 0.656. Higher coefficients of determination were found in the equations of thermal sensation for the heat flux (H; kcal.m-2.h-1) at the right and left thighs of the subjects and on delta(Tsk - Ta) (degrees C) at 4 sites. They were as follows: TS = 2.04 - 0.016 Hright - 0.036 Hleft; R*2 = 0.717, TS = 1.649 + 0.013 delta(Tsk - Ta)UpperArm - 0.036 delta(Tsk - Ta)Chest - 0.223 delta(Tsk - Ta)Thigh-0.083 delta(Tsk - Ta)LowerLeg; R*2 = 0.752, respectively.

  2. Estimating winter survival of winter wheat by simulations of plant frost tolerance

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bergjord Olsen, A.K.; Persson, T.; Wit, de A.; Nkurunziza, L.; Sindhøj, E.; Eckersten, H.

    2018-01-01

    Based on soil temperature, snow depth and the grown cultivar's maximum attainable level of frost tolerance (LT50c), the FROSTOL model simulates development of frost tolerance (LT50) and winter damage, thereby enabling risk calculations for winter wheat survival. To explore the accuracy of this

  3. Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarah M. Rockwell; Joseph M. Wunderle; T. Scott Sillett; Carol I. Bocetti; David N. Ewert; Dave Currie; Jennifer D. White; Peter P. Marra

    2017-01-01

    Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of...

  4. The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia River. Volume 7: Monte-Carlo comparison of confidence internal procedures for estimating survival in a release-recapture study, with applications to Snake River salmonids

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

    1996-06-01

    Confidence intervals for survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities of migrating juvenile salmonids can be computed from the output of the SURPH software developed at the Center for Quantitative Science at the University of Washington. These intervals have been constructed using the estimate of the survival probability, its associated standard error, and assuming the estimate is normally distributed. In order to test the validity and performance of this procedure, two additional confidence interval procedures for estimating survival probabilities were tested and compared using simulated mark-recapture data. Intervals were constructed using normal probability theory, using a percentile-based empirical bootstrap algorithm, and using the profile likelihood concept. Performance of each method was assessed for a variety of initial conditions (release sizes, survival probabilities, detection probabilities). These initial conditions were chosen to encompass the range of parameter values seen in the 1993 and 1994 Snake River juvenile salmonid survival studies. The comparisons among the three estimation methods included average interval width, interval symmetry, and interval coverage

  5. Storage condition of mulberry branches (Morus sp. in the survival, development and production of Bombyx mori L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio José Porto

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available The study was carried with the objective of evaluate the survival, development and cocoons production of silkworm fed with mulberry leaves (Cultivar IZ 56/4 from branches stored in warehouse(24 hours or stored in the system of covering with wet cloth and immersion of bases in water, for a period of 72 hours. It was used a completely randomized design, with two treatments and six replications. Caterpillars fed with mulberry leaves from branches stored in the system of covering and immersion for 72 hours had conditions suitable for survival, development and production of cocoon, not differing from those who received leaves from branches stored in the warehouse.

  6. Shellfish Fishery Severely Reduces Condition and Survival of Oystercatchers Despite Creation of Large Marine Protected Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simon Verhulst

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Fisheries and other human activities pose a global threat to the marine environment. Marine protected areas (MPAs are an emerging tool to cope with such threats. In the Dutch Wadden Sea, large MPAs (covering 31% of all intertidal flats have been created to protect shellfish-eating birds and allow recovery of important habitats. Even though shellfish fishing is prohibited in these areas, populations of shellfish-eating birds in the Wadden Sea have declined sharply. The role of shellfish fisheries in these declines is hotly debated, therefore, we investigated the effectiveness of MPAs for protecting oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus populations. Shellfish stocks (cockles, Cerastoderma edule were substantially higher in the MPAs, but surprisingly this has not resulted in a redistribution of wintering oystercatchers. Oystercatchers in unprotected areas had less shellfish in their diet and lower condition (a combined measure of mass and haematological parameters, and their estimated mortality was 43% higher. It is likely, therefore, that shellfish fishing explains at least part of the 40% decline in oystercatcher numbers in recent years. Condition and mortality effects were strongest in males, and the population sex ratio was female biased, in agreement with the fact that males rely more on shellfish. The unprotected areas apparently function as an "ecological trap," because oystercatchers did not respond as anticipated to the artificial spatial heterogeneity in food supply. Consequently, the MPAs are effective on a local scale, but not on a global scale. Similar problems are likely to exist in terrestrial ecosystems, and distribution strategies of target species need to be considered when designing terrestrial and marine protected areas if they are to be effective.

  7. Impact of oxidative stress defense on bacterial survival and morphological change in Campylobacter jejuni under aerobic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Euna eOh

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Campylobacter jejuni, a microaerophilic foodborne pathogen, inescapably faces high oxygen tension during its transmission to humans. Thus, the ability of C. jejuni to survive under oxygen-rich conditions may significantly impact C. jejuni viability in food and food safety as well. In this study, we investigated the impact of oxidative stress resistance on the survival of C. jejuni under aerobic conditions by examining three mutants defective in key antioxidant genes, including ahpC, katA, and sodB. All the three mutants exhibited growth reduction under aerobic conditions compared to the wild type (WT, and the ahpC mutant showed the most significant growth defect. The CFU reduction in the mutants was recovered to the WT level by complementation. Higher levels of reactive oxygen species (ROS were accumulated in C. jejuni under aerobic conditions than microaerobic conditions, and supplementation of culture media with an antioxidant recovered the growth of C. jejuni. The levels of lipid peroxidation and protein oxidation were significantly increased in the mutants compared to WT. Additionally, the mutants exhibited different morphological changes under aerobic conditions. The ahpC and katA mutants developed coccoid morphology by aeration, whereas the sodB mutant established elongated cellular morphology. Compared to microaerobic conditions, interestingly, aerobic culture conditions substantially induced the formation of coccoidal cells, and antioxidant treatment reduced the emergence of coccoid forms under aerobic conditions. The ATP concentrations and PMA-qPCR analysis supported that oxidative stress is a factor that induces the development of a viable-but-non-culturable (VBNC state in C. jejuni. The findings in this study clearly demonstrated that oxidative stress resistance plays an important role in the survival and morphological changes of C. jejuni under aerobic conditions.

  8. Staphylococcus aureus MnhF mediates cholate efflux and facilitates survival under human colonic conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Sannasiddappa, Thippeswamy; Hood, Graham; Hanson, Kevan; Costabile, Adele; Gibson, Glenn; Clarke, Simon

    2015-01-01

    Resistance to the innate defenses of the intestine is crucial for the survival and carriage of Staphylococcus aureus, a common colonizer of the human gut. Bile salts produced by the liver and secreted into the intestines are one such group of molecules with potent antimicrobial activity. The mechanisms by which S. aureus is able to resist such defenses in order to colonize and survive in the human gut are unknown. Here we show that mnhF confers resistance to bile salts, which can be abrogated...

  9. Estimating Probability of Default on Peer to Peer Market – Survival Analysis Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Đurović Andrija

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Arguably a cornerstone of credit risk modelling is the probability of default. This article aims is to search for the evidence of relationship between loan characteristics and probability of default on peer-to-peer (P2P market. In line with that, two loan characteristics are analysed: 1 loan term length and 2 loan purpose. The analysis is conducted using survival analysis approach within the vintage framework. Firstly, 12 months probability of default through the cycle is used to compare riskiness of analysed loan characteristics. Secondly, log-rank test is employed in order to compare complete survival period of cohorts. Findings of the paper suggest that there is clear evidence of relationship between analysed loan characteristics and probability of default. Longer term loans are more risky than the shorter term ones and the least risky loans are those used for credit card payoff.

  10. Comparison of chromium-51 and iron-59 for estimating erythrocyte survival in the cat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liddle, C.G.; Putnam, J.P.; Berman, E.; Fisher, H.; Ostby, J.

    1984-01-01

    Erythrocyte survival studies were conducted on eight normal, healthy, 1-year-old male specific-pathogen-free cats using both chromium-51 and iron-59 simultaneously. The chromium-51 procedure gave a half-life value of 11.1 +/- 0.9 days. This was considerably lower than would be expected on the basis of the experimentally determined iron-59 erythrocyte survival time of 51.2 +/- 14.9 days. The results of this study indicated that there was considerable loss of the chromium-51 label in the cat other than that from senescence alone. An analysis of the chromium-51 disappearance curve indicated that there were two exponential disappearance rates for the chromium-51 label and, in the absence of cell death, approximately 67% of the label was lost with a rate constant of 0.02 per day and 33% was lost with a rate constant of 0.1 per day. An equation is presented which models the loss of chromium-51 label which could be used to calculate erythrocyte survival from a chromium-51 disappearance curve. Blood volume measurements, hemograms, bone marrow differential results, and iron kinetic values also were determined and the results presented. While a reasonable approximation of the erythrocyte life span could be made by correcting the chromium-51 values for losses other than senescence, the iron-59 procedure would be the preferred method in cats

  11. Capture-recapture abundance and survival estimates of three cetacean species in Icelandic coastal waters using trained scientist-volunteers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertulli, Chiara G.; Guéry, Loreleï; McGinty, Niall; Suzuki, Ailie; Brannan, Naomi; Marques, Tania; Rasmussen, Marianne H.; Gimenez, Olivier

    2018-01-01

    Knowledge of abundance and survival of humpback whales, white-beaked dolphins and minke whales are essential to manage and conserve these species in Icelandic coastal shelf waters. Our main goal was to test the feasibility of employing inexpensive research methods (data collected by trained-scientist volunteers onboard opportunistic vessels) to assess abundance and apparent survival. No previous studies in Iceland have investigated these two demographic parameters in these three cetacean species using open capture-recapture models accounting for imperfect and possibly heterogeneous detection. A transient effect was accounted for whenever required to estimate the population of resident individuals. Identification photographs were collected by scientist-trained volunteers for 7 years (2006-2013) from onboard commercial whale-watching vessels in the coastal waters of Faxaflói (southwest coast, 4400 km2) and Skjálfandi (northeast coast, 1100 km2), Iceland. We estimated an average abundance of 83 humpback whales (Mn; 95% confidence interval: 54-130) in Skjálfandi; 238 white-beaked dolphins (La; [163-321]) in Faxaflói; and 67 minke whales (Ba; [53-82]) in Faxaflói and 24 (14-31) in Skjálfandi. We also found that apparent survival was constant for all three species (Mn: 0.52 [0.41-0.63], La: 0.79 [0.64-0.88], Ba-Faxaflói: 0.80 [0.67-0.88], Ba-Skjálfandi: 0.96 [0.60-0.99]). Our results showed inter-annual variation in abundance estimates which were small for all species, and the presence of transience for minke whales. A significant increase in abundance during the study period was solely found in minke whale data from Skjálfandi. Humpback whales and white-beaked dolphins showed lower apparent survival rates compared to similar baleen whale and dolphin populations. Our results show data collected by trained-scientist volunteers can produce viable estimates of abundance and survival although bias in the methods we employed exist and need to be addressed. With the

  12. Unbiased survival estimates and evidence for skipped breeding opportunities in females

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, Rick D.; Lambert, Brad A.

    2010-01-01

    1. Estimates of demographic parameters for females, in many organisms, are sparse. This is particularly worrisome as more and more species are faced with high extinction probabilities and conservation increasingly depends on actions dictated by complex predictive models that require accurate estimates of demographic parameters for each sex and species.

  13. Scientifically-methodological aspects of agroecological estimation of farmlands in the conditions of radioactive pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tsybul'ko, N.N.; Misyuchik, A.A.

    2009-01-01

    Methodical aspects of adaptive land tenure in the conditions of radioactive pollution on the basis of an agroecological estimation of the earths under the radiating factor and an estimation of influence of soil-landscape conditions on migration radionuclide are proved. (authors)

  14. An estimator of the survival function based on the semi-Markov model under dependent censorship.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Seung-Yeoun; Tsai, Wei-Yann

    2005-06-01

    Lee and Wolfe (Biometrics vol. 54 pp. 1176-1178, 1998) proposed the two-stage sampling design for testing the assumption of independent censoring, which involves further follow-up of a subset of lost-to-follow-up censored subjects. They also proposed an adjusted estimator for the survivor function for a proportional hazards model under the dependent censoring model. In this paper, a new estimator for the survivor function is proposed for the semi-Markov model under the dependent censorship on the basis of the two-stage sampling data. The consistency and the asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimator are derived. The estimation procedure is illustrated with an example of lung cancer clinical trial and simulation results are reported of the mean squared errors of estimators under a proportional hazards and two different nonproportional hazards models.

  15. Survival of weed seeds and animal parasites as affected by anaerobic digestion at meso- and thermophilic conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Johansen, Anders; Bangsø Nielsen, Henrik; Hansen, Christian M.

    2013-01-01

    did not affect egg survival during the first 48h and it took up to 10days before total elimination was reached. In general, anaerobic digestion in biogas plants seems an efficient way (thermophilic more efficient than mesophilic) to treat organic farm wastes in a way that suppresses animal parasites......, Ascaris suum, was assessed under conditions similar to biogas plants managed at meso- (37°C) and thermophilic (55°C) conditions. Cattle manure was used as digestion substrate and experimental units were sampled destructively over time. Regarding weed seeds, the effect of thermophilic conditions (55°C...

  16. Survival in dialysis patients is not different between patients with diabetes as primary renal disease and patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schroijen, Marielle A.; Dekkers, Olaf M.; Grootendorst, Diana C.; Noordzij, Marlies; Romijn, Johannes A.; Krediet, Raymond T.; Boeschoten, Elisabeth W.; Dekker, Friedo W.; Apperloo, A. J.; Bijlsma, J. A.; Boekhout, M.; Boer, W. H.; van der Boog, P. J. M.; Büller, H. R.; van Buren, M.; de Charro, F. Th; Doorenbos, C. J.; van den Dorpel, M. A.; van Es, A.; Fagel, W. J.; Feith, G. W.; de Fijter, C. W. H.; Frenken, L. A. M.; van Geelen, J. A. C. A.; Gerlag, P. G. G.; Gorgels, J. P. M. C.; Grave, W.; Huisman, R. M.; Jager, K. J.; Jie, K.; Koning-Mulder, W. A. H.; Koolen, M. I.; Kremer Hovinga, T. K.; Lavrijssen, A. T. J.; Luik, A. J.; van der Meulen, J.; Parlevliet, K. J.; Raasveld, M. H. M.; van der Sande, F. M.; Schonck, M. J. M.; Schuurmans, M. M. J.; Siegert, C. E. H.; Stegeman, C. A.; Stevens, P.; Thijssen, J. G. P.; Valentijn, R. M.; Vastenburg, G. H.; Verburgh, C. A.; Vincent, H. H.; Vos, P. F.

    2011-01-01

    On dialysis, survival among patients with diabetes mellitus is inferior to survival of non-diabetic patients. We hypothesized that patients with diabetes as primary renal disease have worse survival compared to patients with diabetes as a co-morbid condition and aimed to compare all-cause mortality

  17. Survival Estimates for the Passage of Juvenile Salmonids through Snake River Dams and Reservoirs, 1997 Annual Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hockersmith, Eric E.

    1999-03-01

    This report consists of two parts describing research activities completed during 1997 under Bonneville Power Administration Project Number 93-29. Part 1 provides reach survival and travel time estimates for 1997 for PIT-tagged hatchery steelhead and yearling chinook salmon in the Snake and Columbia Rivers. The results are reported primarily in the form of tables and figures with a minimum of text. More detailed information on methodology and the statistical models used in the analysis are provided in previous annual reports cited in the text. Analysis of the relationships among travel time, survival, and environmental factors for 1997 and previous years of the study will be reported elsewhere. Part 2 of this report describes research to determine areas of loss and delay for juvenile hatchery salmonids above Lower Granite Reservoir.

  18. Estimating survival of dental fillings on the basis of interval-censored data and multi-state models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Joly, Pierre; Gerds, Thomas A; Qvist, Vibeke

    2012-01-01

    We aim to compare the life expectancy of a filling in a primary tooth between two types of treatments. We define the probabilities that a dental filling survives without complication until the permanent tooth erupts from beneath (exfoliation). We relate the time to exfoliation of the tooth...... with all these particularities, we propose to use a parametric four-state model with three random effects to take into account the hierarchical cluster structure. For inference, right and interval censoring as well as left truncation have to be dealt with. With the proposed approach, we can conclude...... that the estimated probability that a filling survives without complication until exfoliation is larger for one treatment than for the other, for all ages of the child at the time of treatment....

  19. Experiencing El Niño conditions during early life reduces recruiting probabilities but not adult survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez, Cristina; Drummond, Hugh

    2018-01-01

    In wild long-lived animals, analysis of impacts of stressful natal conditions on adult performance has rarely embraced the entire age span, and the possibility that costs are expressed late in life has seldom been examined. Using 26 years of data from 8541 fledglings and 1310 adults of the blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii), a marine bird that can live up to 23 years, we tested whether experiencing the warm waters and food scarcity associated with El Niño in the natal year reduces recruitment or survival over the adult lifetime. Warm water in the natal year reduced the probability of recruiting; each additional degree (°C) of water temperature meant a reduction of roughly 50% in fledglings' probability of returning to the natal colony as breeders. Warm water in the current year impacted adult survival, with greater effect at the oldest ages than during early adulthood. However, warm water in the natal year did not affect survival at any age over the adult lifespan. A previous study showed that early recruitment and widely spaced breeding allow boobies that experience warm waters in the natal year to achieve normal fledgling production over the first 10 years; our results now show that this reproductive effort incurs no survival penalty, not even late in life. This pattern is additional evidence of buffering against stressful natal conditions via life-history adjustments. PMID:29410788

  20. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

    2017-12-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  1. Remaining useful life estimation for deteriorating systems with time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Qi

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic time-varying operational conditions pose great challenge to the estimation of system remaining useful life (RUL for the deteriorating systems. This paper presents a method based on probabilistic and stochastic approaches to estimate system RUL for periodically monitored degradation processes with dynamic time-varying operational conditions and condition-specific failure zones. The method assumes that the degradation rate is influenced by specific operational condition and moreover, the transition between different operational conditions plays the most important role in affecting the degradation process. These operational conditions are assumed to evolve as a discrete-time Markov chain (DTMC. The failure thresholds are also determined by specific operational conditions and described as different failure zones. The 2008 PHM Conference Challenge Data is utilized to illustrate our method, which contains mass sensory signals related to the degradation process of a commercial turbofan engine. The RUL estimation method using the sensor measurements of a single sensor was first developed, and then multiple vital sensors were selected through a particular optimization procedure in order to increase the prediction accuracy. The effectiveness and advantages of the proposed method are presented in a comparison with existing methods for the same dataset.

  2. Survival of weed seeds and animal parasites as affected by anaerobic digestion at meso- and thermophilic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansen, Anders; Nielsen, Henrik B; Hansen, Christian M; Andreasen, Christian; Carlsgart, Josefine; Hauggard-Nielsen, Henrik; Roepstorff, Allan

    2013-04-01

    Anaerobic digestion of residual materials from animals and crops offers an opportunity to simultaneously produce bioenergy and plant fertilizers at single farms and in farm communities where input substrate materials and resulting digested residues are shared among member farms. A surplus benefit from this practice may be the suppressing of propagules from harmful biological pests like weeds and animal pathogens (e.g. parasites). In the present work, batch experiments were performed, where survival of seeds of seven species of weeds and non-embryonated eggs of the large roundworm of pigs, Ascaris suum, was assessed under conditions similar to biogas plants managed at meso- (37°C) and thermophilic (55°C) conditions. Cattle manure was used as digestion substrate and experimental units were sampled destructively over time. Regarding weed seeds, the effect of thermophilic conditions (55°C) was very clear as complete mortality, irrespective of weed species, was reached after less than 2 days. At mesophilic conditions, seeds of Avena fatua, Sinapsis arvensis, Solidago canadensis had completely lost germination ability, while Brassica napus, Fallopia convolvulus and Amzinckia micrantha still maintained low levels (~1%) of germination ability after 1 week. Chenopodium album was the only weed species which survived 1 week at substantial levels (7%) although after 11 d germination ability was totally lost. Similarly, at 55°C, no Ascaris eggs survived more than 3h of incubation. Incubation at 37°C did not affect egg survival during the first 48 h and it took up to 10 days before total elimination was reached. In general, anaerobic digestion in biogas plants seems an efficient way (thermophilic more efficient than mesophilic) to treat organic farm wastes in a way that suppresses animal parasites and weeds so that the digestates can be applied without risking spread of these pests. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Condition monitoring of a motor-operated valve using estimated motor torque

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chai, Jangbom; Kang, Shinchul; Park, Sungkeun; Hong, Sungyull; Lim, Chanwoo

    2004-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the development of data analysis methods to be used in on-line monitoring and diagnosis of Motor-Operated Valves (MOVs) effectively and accurately. The technique to be utilized includes the electrical measurements and signal processing to estimate electric torque of induction motors, which are attached to most of MOV systems. The estimated torque of an induction motor is compared with the directly measured torque using a torque cell in various loading conditions including the degraded voltage conditions to validate the estimating scheme. The accuracy of the estimating scheme is presented. The advantages of the estimated torque signatures are reviewed over the currently used ones such as the current signature and the power signature in several respects: accuracy, sensitivity, resolution and so on. Additionally, the estimated torque methods are suggested as a good way to monitor the conditions of MOVs with higher accuracy. (author)

  4. Survival analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badwe, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary endpoint in the majority of the studies has been either disease recurrence or death. This kind of analysis requires a special method since all patients in the study experience the endpoint. The standard method for estimating such survival distribution is Kaplan Meier method. The survival function is defined as the proportion of individuals who survive beyond certain time. Multi-variate comparison for survival has been carried out with Cox's proportional hazard model

  5. Effect of Low Temperature and Wheat Winter-Hardiness on Survival of Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici under Controlled Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lijie Ma

    Full Text Available Wheat stripe rust, caused by Puccinia striiformis f. sp. tritici (Pst, is one of the most important diseases of wheat worldwide. Understanding the survival of Pst during the overwintering period is critical for predicting Pst epidemics in the spring. Real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR methods quantifying Pst DNA and RNA (cDNA were developed and compared for the ability to quantify viable Pst in leaf tissues. Both qPCR of DNA and RNA can provide reliable measurement of viable Pst in plant tissues prior to the late sporulation stage for which qPCR of DNA gave a much higher estimate of fungal biomass than qPCR of RNA. The percentage of Pst biomass that was viable in detached and attached leaves under low temperatures decreased over time. Pst survived longer on attached leaves than on detached leaves. The survival of Pst in cultivars with strong winter-hardiness at 0°C and -5°C was greater than those with weak winter-hardiness. However, such differences in Pst survival among cultivars were negligible at -10, -15 and -20°C. Results indicated that Pst mycelia inside green leaves can also be killed by low temperatures rather than through death of green leaves under low temperatures. The relationship of Pst survival in attached leaves with temperature and winter-hardiness was well described by logistic models. Further field evaluation is necessary to assess whether inclusion of other factors such as moisture and snow cover could improve the model performance in predicting Pst overwintering potential, and hence the epidemic in spring.

  6. Influence of culture conditions and preconditioning on survival of Lactobacillus delbrueckii subspecies bulgaricus ND02 during lyophilization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Yuyu; Gao, Shuran; Guo, Huiling; Zhang, Heping

    2014-03-01

    The cryotolerance of Lactobacillus delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus is weak during vacuum freeze-drying. Many factors affect cryoresistance of these bacteria, such as cryoprotectant composition, the lyophilization technology used, and the intrinsic characteristics of the bacteria. In this research, we explored the fermentation technology and other preconditioning treatments of cells in improving the cryoresistance of Lactobacillus delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus strains during lyophilization. The addition of yeast extract in the propagation medium exerted a negative effect on the cryotolerance of these bacteria and decreased survival during lyophilization. The count of the freeze-dried cells from medium containing a high level (4%) of yeast extract was only 4.1 × 10(9) cfu/g, indicating a death rate as high as 88%, compared with the culture medium without yeast extract, with a lower death rate of 44.7%. When Lactobacillus delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus ND02 was propagated in yeast extract-free de Man, Rogosa, and Sharpe broth at a set pH value of 5.1, the cells showed unexpectedly higher survival after freeze-drying. Viable counts of the lyophilized cell of strain ND02 cultivated at pH 5.1 could reach 1.05 × 10(11)cfu/g and survival of the freeze-drying process was 68.3%, whereas at pH 5.7, survival was only 51.2%. We also examined the effects of pretreatment of cells on survival of the bacteria after vacuum freeze-drying. By analyzing the effect of pretreatment conditions on the expression of cold- and heat-shock genes, we established 2 pretreatments that improved survival of cells after lyophilization. Optimal fermentation conditions and pretreatment of the cell-cryoprotectant mixture at 10°C for 2h or 37°C for 30 min improved the cryoresistance of 4 strains of Lactobacillus delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus to varying degrees. Cells of IMAU20269 and IMAU20291 that were pretreated showed enhanced survival of 16.06 and 16.82%, respectively, after lyophilization. Expression of

  7. Various Wolbachia genotypes differently influence host Drosophila dopamine metabolism and survival under heat stress conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gruntenko, Nataly Е; Ilinsky, Yury Yu; Adonyeva, Natalya V; Burdina, Elena V; Bykov, Roman A; Menshanov, Petr N; Rauschenbach, Inga Yu

    2017-12-28

    One of the most widespread prokaryotic symbionts of invertebrates is the intracellular bacteria of Wolbachia genus which can be found in about 50% of insect species. Wolbachia causes both parasitic and mutualistic effects on its host that include manipulating the host reproductive systems in order to increase their transmission through the female germline, and increasing the host fitness. One of the mechanisms, promoting adaptation in biological organisms, is a non-specific neuroendocrine stress reaction. In insects, this reaction includes catecholamines, dopamine, serotonin and octopamine, which act as neurotransmitters, neuromodulators and neurohormones. The level of dopamine metabolism correlates with heat stress resistance in Drosophila adults. To examine Wolbachia effect on Drosophila survival under heat stress and dopamine metabolism we used five strains carrying the nuclear background of interbred Bi90 strain and cytoplasmic backgrounds with different genotype variants of Wolbachia (produced by 20 backcrosses of Bi90 males with appropriate source of Wolbachia). Non-infected Bi90 strain (treated with tetracycline for 3 generations) was used as a control group. We demonstrated that two of five investigated Wolbachia variants promote changes in Drosophila heat stress resistance and activity of enzymes that produce and degrade dopamine, alkaline phosphatase and dopamine-dependent arylalkylamine N-acetyltransferase. What is especially interesting, wMelCS genotype of Wolbachia increases stress resistance and the intensity of dopamine metabolism, whereas wMelPop strain decreases them. wMel, wMel2 and wMel4 genotypes of Wolbachia do not show any effect on the survival under heat stress or dopamine metabolism. L-DOPA treatment, known to increase the dopamine content in Drosophila, levels the difference in survival under heat stress between all studied groups. The genotype of symbiont determines the effect that the symbiont has on the stress resistance of the host

  8. Autophagy sustains the survival of human pancreatic cancer PANC-1 cells under extreme nutrient deprivation conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang Eun; Park, Hye-Jin; Jeong, Hye Kyoung; Kim, Mi-Jung; Kim, Minyeong; Bae, Ok-Nam; Baek, Seung-Hoon

    2015-07-31

    Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas are an extremely aggressive and devastating type of cancer with high mortality. Given the dense stroma and poor vascularization, accessibility to nutrients is limited in the tumor microenvironment. Here, we aimed to elucidate the role of autophagy in promoting the survival of human pancreatic cancer PANC-1 cells exposed to nutrient-deprived media (NDM) lacking glucose, amino acids, and serum. NDM inhibited Akt activity and phosphorylation of p70 S6K, and induced AMPK activation and mitochondrial depolarization. NDM also time-dependently increased LC3-II accumulation, number of GFP-LC3 puncta, and colocalization between GFP-LC3 and lysosomes. These results suggested that autophagy was progressively activated through Akt- and AMPK-mTOR pathway in nutrient-deficient PANC-1 cells. Autophagy inhibitors (chloroquine and wortmannin) or silencing of Atg5 augmented PANC-1 cell death in NDM. In cells exposed to NDM, chloroquine and wortmannin induced apoptosis and Z-VAD-fmk inhibited cytotoxicity of these inhibitors. These data demonstrate that autophagy is anti-apoptotic and sustains the survival of PANC-1 cells following extreme nutrient deprivation. Autophagy modulation may be a viable therapeutic option for cancer cells located in the core of solid tumors with a nutrient-deficient microenvironment. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Halophilic archaea on Earth and in space: growth and survival under extreme conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oren, Aharon

    2014-12-13

    Salts are abundant on Mars, and any liquid water that is present or may have been present on the planet is expected to be hypersaline. Halophilic archaea (family Halobacteriaceae) are the microorganisms best adapted to life at extremes of salinity on Earth. This paper reviews the properties of the Halobacteriaceae that may make the group good candidates for life also on Mars. Many species resist high UV and gamma radiation levels; one species has survived exposure to vacuum and radiation during a space flight; and there is at least one psychrotolerant species. Halophilic archaea may survive for millions of years within brine inclusions in salt crystals. Many species have different modes of anaerobic metabolism, and some can use light as an energy source using the light-driven proton pump bacteriorhodopsin. They are also highly tolerant to perchlorate, recently shown to be present in Martian soils, and some species can even use perchlorate as an electron acceptor to support anaerobic growth. The presence of characteristic carotenoid pigments (α-bacterioruberin and derivatives) makes the Halobacteriaceae easy to identify by Raman spectroscopy. Thus, if present on Mars, such organisms may be detected by Raman instrumentation planned to explore Mars during the upcoming ExoMars mission. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

  10. Environmental conditions shape the temporal pattern of investment in reproduction and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marasco, Valeria; Boner, Winnie; Griffiths, Kate; Heidinger, Britt; Monaghan, Pat

    2018-01-10

    The relationship between environmental stress exposure and ageing is likely to vary with stressor severity, life-history stage and the time scale over which effects are measured. Such factors could influence whether stress exposure accelerates or slows the ageing process, but their interactions have not previously been experimentally investigated. We found that experimental exposure of zebra finches to mildly challenging environmental circumstances from young to old adulthood, which increased exposure to stress hormones, reduced breeding performance during early adulthood, but had positive effects when individuals were bred in old adulthood. This difference was not due to selective mortality, because the effects were evident within individuals, and no evidence of habituation in the response to the stressor was found. The more stressful environment had no effects on survival during young or old adulthood, but substantially improved survival during middle age. Changes in the effects at different ages could be due to the duration and nature of the challenging exposure, or to variation in coping capacity or strategy with age. These results show that living under challenging environmental circumstances can influence ageing trajectories in terms of both reproductive performance and longevity. Our results provide experimental support for the emerging idea that stress exposure needs to be optimized rather than minimized to obtain the best health outcomes. © 2018 The Author(s).

  11. Survival of the insulator under the electrical stress condition at cryogenic temperature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baek, Seung Myeong [Dept. of Fire Protection Engineering, Changwon Moonsung University, Changwon (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sang Hyun [Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju (Korea, Republic of)

    2013-12-15

    We have clearly investigated with respect to the survival of the insulator at cryogenic temperature under the electrical stress. The breakdown and voltage-time characteristics of turn-to-turn models for point contact geometry and surface contact geometry using copper multi wrapped with polyimide film for an HTS transformer were investigated under AC and impulse voltage at 77 K. Polyimide film (Kapton) 0.025 mm thick is used for multi wrapping of the electrode. As expected, the breakdown voltages for the surface contact geometry are lower than that of the point contact geometry, because the contact area of the surface contact geometry is lager than that of the point contact geometry. The time to breakdown t50 decreases as the applied voltage is increased, and the lifetime indices increase slightly as the number of layers is increased. The electric field amplitude at the position where breakdown occurs is about 80% of the maximum electric field value. The relationship between survival probability and the electrical stress at cryogenic temperature was evident.

  12. [Prognostic estimation in critical patients. Validation of a new and very simple system of prognostic estimation of survival in an intensive care unit].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abizanda, R; Padron, A; Vidal, B; Mas, S; Belenguer, A; Madero, J; Heras, A

    2006-04-01

    To make the validation of a new system of prognostic estimation of survival in critical patients (EPEC) seen in a multidisciplinar Intensive care unit (ICU). Prospective analysis of a patient cohort seen in the ICU of a multidisciplinar Intensive Medicine Service of a reference teaching hospital with 19 beds. Four hundred eighty four patients admitted consecutively over 6 months in 2003. Data collection of a basic minimum data set that includes patient identification data (gender, age), reason for admission and their origin, prognostic estimation of survival by EPEC, MPM II 0 and SAPS II (the latter two considered as gold standard). Mortality was evaluated on hospital discharge. EPEC validation was done with analysis of its discriminating capacity (ROC curve), calibration of its prognostic capacity (Hosmer Lemeshow C test), resolution of the 2 x 2 Contingency tables around different probability values (20, 50, 70 and mean value of prognostic estimation). The standardized mortality rate (SMR) for each one of the methods was calculated. Linear regression of the EPEC regarding the MPM II 0 and SAPS II was established and concordance analyses were done (Bland-Altman test) of the prediction of mortality by the three systems. In spite of an apparently good linear correlation, similar accuracy of prediction and discrimination capacity, EPEC is not well-calibrated (no likelihood of death greater than 50%) and the concordance analyses show that more than 10% of the pairs were outside the 95% confidence interval. In spite of its ease of application and calculation and of incorporating delay of admission in ICU as a variable, EPEC does not offer any predictive advantage on MPM II 0 or SAPS II, and its predictions adapt to reality worse.

  13. Estimation for bolt fastening conditions of thin aluminum structure using PZT sensors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Yong; Han, Byeong Hee; Kim, Byung Jin; Hong, Dong Pyo; Kim, Young Moon

    2007-01-01

    This work presents a study on PZT impedance-based method, it is one of the NDT(Non-Destructive Technique). We study about assessment of the square-structure health condition by impedance-based technique using PZT patches, associated with longitudinal wave propagation. Health conditions of the square-structure controlled by bolt fastening condition is adjusted by torque wrench. In order to estimate the damage condition numerically, we suggest the evaluation method of impedance peak frequency shift

  14. Viability of Lactobacillus acidophilus in synbiotic guava mousses and its survival under in vitro simulated gastrointestinal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buriti, Flávia C A; Castro, Inar A; Saad, Susana M I

    2010-02-28

    The effects of refrigeration, freezing and substitution of milk fat by inulin and whey protein concentrate (WPC) on Lactobacillus acidophilus La-5 viability and resistance to gastric and enteric simulated conditions in synbiotic guava mousses effects were investigated. Refrigerated mousses supplemented with WPC presented the best probiotic viability, ranging from 7.77 to 6.24 log cfu/g during 28 days of storage. The highest probiotic populations, above 7.45 log cfu/g, were observed for all frozen mousses during 112 days of storage. Decreased L. acidophilus survival during the in vitro gastrointestinal simulation was observed both for refrigerated and frozen mousses. Nonetheless, for the refrigerated mousses, the addition of inulin enhanced the probiotic survival during the in vitro assays in the first week of storage. L. acidophilus survival in simulated gastrointestinal fluids was also improved through freezing. The frozen storage may be used to provide increased shelf-life for synbiotic guava mousses. Even though the protective effect of inulin and WPC on the probiotic microorganism tested was shown to be more specific for the refrigerated products, the partial replacement of milk fat by these ingredients may also help, as it improves the nutritional value of mousses in both storage conditions. (c) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Estimation of Wave Conditions at Svåheia SSG Pilot Site

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kofoed, Jens Peter; Margheritini, Lucia; Stratigaki, V.

    The purpose of the project described in the present report is to estimate the local wave conditions at the proposed location for a SSG pilot at the Svåheia site in the south western part of Norway. Focus is put on estimating the everyday conditions to enable an evaluation of the power production...... potential for the SSG pilot at the proposed location. The work in the project has been performed in three parts: 1. Establishing the offshore wave conditions and bathymetry of the area. 2. Transformation of offshore waves to near shore, through numerical wave modeling. 3. Evaluation of the transformed...... (local) wave conditions and its implications....

  16. Are there differences between unconditional and conditional demand estimates? implications for future research and policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hidayat Budi

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimations of the demand for healthcare often rely on estimating the conditional probabilities of being ill. Such estimate poses several problems due to sample selectivity problems and an under-reporting of the incidence of illness. This study examines the effects of health insurance on healthcare demand in Indonesia, using samples that are both unconditional and conditional on being ill, and comparing the results. Methods The demand for outpatient care in three alternative providers was modeled using a multinomial logit regression for samples unconditional on being ill (N = 16485 and conditional on being ill (N = 5055. The ill sample was constructed from two measures of health status – activity of daily living impairments and severity of illness – derived from the second round of panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey. The recycling prediction method was used to predict the distribution of utilization rates based on having health insurance and income status, while holding all other variables constant. Results Both unconditional and conditional estimates yield similar results in terms of the direction of the most covariates. The magnitude effects of insurance on healthcare demand are about 7.5% (public providers and 20% (private providers higher for unconditional estimates than for conditional ones. Further, exogenous variables in the former estimates explain a higher variation of the model than that in the latter ones. Findings confirm that health insurance has a positive impact on the demand for healthcare, with the highest effect found among the lowest income group. Conclusion Conditional estimates do not suffer from statistical selection bias. Such estimates produce smaller demand effects for health insurance than unconditional ones do. Whether to rely on conditional or unconditional demand estimates depends on the purpose of study in question. Findings also demonstrate that health insurance programs

  17. Boundary conditions and subelliptic estimates for geometric Kramers-Fokker-Planck operators on manifolds with boundaries

    CERN Document Server

    Nier, Francis

    2018-01-01

    This article is concerned with the maximal accretive realizations of geometric Kramers-Fokker-Planck operators on manifolds with boundaries. A general class of boundary conditions is introduced which ensures the maximal accretivity and some global subelliptic estimates. Those estimates imply nice spectral properties as well as exponential decay properties for the associated semigroup. Admissible boundary conditions cover a wide range of applications for the usual scalar Kramer-Fokker-Planck equation or Bismut's hypoelliptic laplacian.

  18. An evaluation of regression methods to estimate nutritional condition of canvasbacks and other water birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparling, D.W.; Barzen, J.A.; Lovvorn, J.R.; Serie, J.R.

    1992-01-01

    Regression equations that use mensural data to estimate body condition have been developed for several water birds. These equations often have been based on data that represent different sexes, age classes, or seasons, without being adequately tested for intergroup differences. We used proximate carcass analysis of 538 adult and juvenile canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria ) collected during fall migration, winter, and spring migrations in 1975-76 and 1982-85 to test regression methods for estimating body condition.

  19. Survival of Lactobacillus delbrueckii UFV H2b20 in fermented milk under simulated gastric and intestinal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Conceição, L L; Leandro, E S; Freitas, F S; de Oliveira, M N V; Ferreira-Machado, A B; Borges, A C; de Moraes, C A

    2013-09-01

    The survival of Lactobacillus delbrueckii UFV H2b20 was assessed in fermented milk, both during the storage period and after exposure to simulated gastric and intestinal juices, as well the detection of the gene fbpA involved in adherence to human gastrointestinal tract. L. delbrueckii UFV H2b20 remained stable and viable for 28 days under refrigerated storage conditions. After one day of storage, that strain exhibited a one-log population reduction following exposure in tandem to simulated gastric and intestinal juices. After 14 days of storage, a two-log reduction was observed following 90 min of exposure to the simulated gastric conditions. However, the strain did not survive following exposure to the simulated intestinal juice. The observed tolerance to storage conditions and resistance to the simulated gastric and intestinal conditions confirm the potential use of L. delbrueckii UFV H2b20 as a probiotic, which is further reinforced by the detection of fbpA in this strain.

  20. Fecundity, growth, and survival of the angelfish Pterophyllum scalare (Perciformes: Cichlidae under laboratory conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Armando A Ortega-Salas

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The freshwater angelfishes (Pterophyllum are South American cichlids that have become very popular among aquarists, yet scarce information on their culture and aquarium husbandry exists. We studied Pterophyllum scalare to analyze dietary effects on fecundity, growth, and survival of eggs and larvae during 135 days. Three diets were used: A decapsulated cysts of Artemia, B commercial dry fish food, and C a mix diet of the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis and the cladoceran Daphnia magna. The initial larval density was 100 organisms in each 40L aquarium. With diet A, larvae reached a maximum weight of 3.80g, a total length of 6.3 cm, and a height of 5.8cm; with diet B: 2.80g, 4.81cm, and 4.79cm, and with diet C: 3.00g, 5.15cm, and 5.10cm, respectively. Significant differences were observed between diet A, and diet B and C, but no significantly differences were observed between diets B and C. Fecundity varied from 234 to 1 082 eggs in 20 and 50g females, respectively. Egg survival ranged from 87.4% up to 100%, and larvae survival (80 larvae/40L aquarium from 50% to 66.3% using diet B and A, respectively. Live food was better for growing fish than the commercial balanced food diet. Fecundity and survival are important factors in planning a good production of angelfish. Rev. Biol. Trop. 57 (3: 741-747. Epub 2009 September 30.Se realizaron estudios de cultivo en laboratorio del pez ángel, Pterophyllum scalare, para analizar los efectos de su dieta en la fecundidad, crecimiento y sobrevivencia en huevos y larvas por un período 135 días. Tres dietas diferentes se utilizaron A quistes decapsulados de Artemia, B comida comercial seca para pez, C una mezcla de rotíferos, Brachionus plicatilis y el cladocero, Daphnia magna. La densidad inicial de larvas en acuarios de 40L fue de 100 organismos. Utilizando la dieta A, las larvas alcanzaron un peso máximo de 3.80g, una longitud total de 6.3cm y una altura de 5.8cm; utilizando la dieta B, fue de 2.80g, 4

  1. Erythrokinetics, ferrokinetics and red cell survival in sickle cell anaemia under subtropical climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cardenas, R.

    1975-01-01

    Ferrokinetic parameters were evaluated with 59 Fe and red-cell survival with 51 Cr by classical techniques in a total of 17 patients with sickle-cell disease. The mean plasma 59 Fe half-disappearance time in these patients was 29.5 min as compared with a normal value of 92 min, and the t1/2 51 Cr 8.0 days as compared with a normal value of 26.0 days. The mean red-cell iron turnover rate was elevated to 9 times normal. The increased destruction of red cells appeared to take place predominantly, though not entirely, in the spleen. Eight of the 17 patients studied were identified as having intercurrent complications, but these did not significantly affect the results of the investigations. A group of 5 boys in whom the red-cell iron turnover rate was elevated to a lesser degree than in the other patients were subjected to more detailed studies of plasma 59 Fe clearance with particular reference to ineffective erythropoiesis. In these patients, the plasma 59 Fe clearance curves showed precocious humps characteristic of ineffective erythropoiesis. Detailed analysis of the results indicated ineffective erythropoiesis corresponding to 3.6, 16.0, 22.6, 32.0 and 50.0 % of the iron initially taken up by the bone marrow. It is concluded that while the anaemia in most patients with sickle-cell disease is mainly due to shortened survival of the circulating red cells, with increased destruction of red cells in the spleen, ineffective erythropoiesis may none the less be an important factor determining the actual degree of this anaemia

  2. Geriatric Conditions in Acutely Hospitalized Older Patients: Prevalence and One-Year Survival and Functional Decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buurman, Bianca M.; Hoogerduijn, Jita G.; de Haan, Rob J.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Lagaay, A. Margot; Verhaar, Harald J.; Schuurmans, Marieke J.; Levi, Marcel; de Rooij, Sophia E.

    2011-01-01

    Background To study the prevalence of eighteen geriatric conditions in older patients at admission, their reporting rate in discharge summaries and the impact of these conditions on mortality and functional decline one year after admission. Method A prospective multicenter cohort study conducted between 2006 and 2008 in two tertiary university teaching hospitals and one regional teaching hospital in the Netherlands. Patients of 65 years and older, acutely admitted and hospitalized for at least 48 hours, were invited to participate. Eighteen geriatric conditions were assessed at hospital admission, and outcomes (mortality, functional decline) were assessed one year after admission. Results 639 patients were included, with a mean age of 78 years. IADL impairment (83%), polypharmacy (61%), mobility difficulty (59%), high levels of primary caregiver burden (53%), and malnutrition (52%) were most prevalent. Except for polypharmacy and cognitive impairment, the reporting rate of the geriatric conditions in discharge summaries was less than 50%. One year after admission, 35% had died and 33% suffered from functional decline. A high Charlson comorbidity index score, presence of malnutrition, high fall risk, presence of delirium and premorbid IADL impairment were associated with mortality and overall poor outcome (mortality or functional decline). Obesity lowered the risk for mortality. Conclusion Geriatric conditions were highly prevalent and associated with poor health outcomes after admission. Early recognition of these conditions in acutely hospitalized older patients and improving the handover to the general practitioner could lead to better health outcomes and reduce the burden of hospital admission for older patients. PMID:22110598

  3. Estimation of Radiation Limit from a Huygens' Box under Non-Free-Space Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Franek, Ondrej; Sørensen, Morten; Bonev, Ivan Bonev

    2013-01-01

    The recently studied Huygens' box method has difficulties when radiation of an electronic module is to be determined under non-free-space conditions, i.e. with an enclosure. We propose an estimate on radiation limit under such conditions based only on the Huygens' box data from free...

  4. Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liping Jiang

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T and available dissolved oxygen (DO that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1 °C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past (1961–2008 and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.

  5. Artificial Neural Network Algorithm for Condition Monitoring of DC-link Capacitors Based on Capacitance Estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soliman, Hammam Abdelaal Hammam; Wang, Huai; Gadalla, Brwene Salah Abdelkarim

    2015-01-01

    challenges. A capacitance estimation method based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) algorithm is therefore proposed in this paper. The implemented ANN estimated the capacitance of the DC-link capacitor in a back-toback converter. Analysis of the error of the capacitance estimation is also given......In power electronic converters, reliability of DC-link capacitors is one of the critical issues. The estimation of their health status as an application of condition monitoring have been an attractive subject for industrial field and hence for the academic research filed as well. More reliable...... solutions are required to be adopted by the industry applications in which usage of extra hardware, increased cost, and low estimation accuracy are the main challenges. Therefore, development of new condition monitoring methods based on software solutions could be the new era that covers the aforementioned...

  6. Test of equal effect per fraction and estimation of initial clonogen number in microcolony assays of survival after fractionated irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thames, H.D.; Withers, H.R.

    1980-01-01

    In the use of multifraction microcolony assays to infer the low-dose response of in situ renewal systems such as intestinal crypts, the assumption of equal effect per dose fraction is required. Moreover, the construction of a cell-survival curve requires knowledge of the initial count of cells capable of repopulating each renewal structure. We describe a method of designing fractionation protocols which provides a regression estimate of the initial number of clonogens per renewal structure and a test of the hypothesis of equal effect per fraction. The essential factor in the experimental design is the use of common dose fractions (use of the same dose per fraction in series with different numbers of fractions). Applications of the method to data for which the assumption of equal effect per fraction holds (four-hour fractionation interval murine testis study) and does not hold (one-hour fractionation interval murine jejunal crypt study) are presented. (author)

  7. ESTIMATION OF SURVIVAL IN PATIENTS WITH ADVANCED OVARIAN CANCER – ABSTRACT OF THE RESEARCH PROJECT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Špela Smrkolj

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Background: Morbidity and mortality caused by cancer persist to be an important health problem world- wide and in the European Union member states as well. In Slovenia, most ovarian cancer cases are detected in advanced stages, hence a rather high mortality rate. Aims: The purpose of this research project is to analyze the primary cytoreduction in the patients with advanced ovarian cancer. The main objective of the project is to assess the use of lap- aroscopy in the prediction of optimal cytoreduction in these patients. Applicative research project ‘Estimation of survial in patients with advanced ovarian can- cer based on primary laparoscopical assessment of optimal cytoreduction’ (L3-2371 was approved and has been financed by the Slovene Research Agency and co-financed by the Ministry of Health of RS; Duration: May 1, 2009–April 30, 2012. Methods: The research project will consist of retrospective and prospective study. In all the patients with advanced ovarian cancer managed at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecol- ogy, University Medical Centre Ljubljana in the years 2003–2008, and in whom optimal primary cytoreduction was made using either laparoscopy or laparotomy, certain clinical and pathomorphological factors will be compared, and the effects of all analyzed factors on the outcome of treatment assessed. In the prospective study, we will aim at assessing the use of laparoscopy in the prediction of optimal cytoreduction in all newly detected cases using a laparoscopy-based score (Fagotti’s scoring system. Conclusions: The standard management of advanced ovarian cancer patients consists of primary surgical optimal and/or suboptimal cytoreduction followed by aggressive cytotoxic chemotherapy. In line with our experience and with that published most recently, laparoscopy seems to be a promising method with which we will attempt to most accurately assess the optimal cytoreduction in surgical treatment of ovarian cancer patients.

  8. Driving range estimation for electric vehicles based on driving condition identification and forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Chaofeng; Dai, Wei; Chen, Liao; Chen, Long; Wang, Limei

    2017-10-01

    With the impact of serious environmental pollution in our cities combined with the ongoing depletion of oil resources, electric vehicles are becoming highly favored as means of transport. Not only for the advantage of low noise, but for their high energy efficiency and zero pollution. The Power battery is used as the energy source of electric vehicles. However, it does currently still have a few shortcomings, noticeably the low energy density, with high costs and short cycle life results in limited mileage compared with conventional passenger vehicles. There is great difference in vehicle energy consumption rate under different environment and driving conditions. Estimation error of current driving range is relatively large due to without considering the effects of environmental temperature and driving conditions. The development of a driving range estimation method will have a great impact on the electric vehicles. A new driving range estimation model based on the combination of driving cycle identification and prediction is proposed and investigated. This model can effectively eliminate mileage errors and has good convergence with added robustness. Initially the identification of the driving cycle is based on Kernel Principal Component feature parameters and fuzzy C referring to clustering algorithm. Secondly, a fuzzy rule between the characteristic parameters and energy consumption is established under MATLAB/Simulink environment. Furthermore the Markov algorithm and BP(Back Propagation) neural network method is utilized to predict the future driving conditions to improve the accuracy of the remaining range estimation. Finally, driving range estimation method is carried out under the ECE 15 condition by using the rotary drum test bench, and the experimental results are compared with the estimation results. Results now show that the proposed driving range estimation method can not only estimate the remaining mileage, but also eliminate the fluctuation of the

  9. Asymmetries in body condition and order of arrival influence competitive ability and survival in a coral reef fish.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poulos, Davina E; McCormick, Mark I

    2015-11-01

    Trade-offs between traits that influence an individual's competitive ability are important in determining community assembly and coexistence of individuals sharing the same resources. Populations of coral reef fish are structurally complex, so it is important to understand how these populations are shaped as a result of an individual's suite of traits and those of its competitors. We conducted a 2 × 2 factorial field experiment that manipulated body condition (high or low, manipulated through a feeding regime) and residency (resident or intruder, where the resident arrived at the habitat 3 h before the intruder) to evaluate effects on competitive ability and survival. Prior residency alleviated the disadvantage of a low body condition with respect to aggression, which was similar between low-condition residents and high-condition intruders. However, high-condition residents displayed a significantly greater level of aggression than intruders, regardless of whether intruders were from high- or low-condition treatments. For intruders to have a high probability of becoming dominant, they needed to have a large body condition advantage. Mortality trajectories suggested that body condition modified the effect of prior residency, and intruders were more likely to suffer mortality if they had a low body condition because residents pushed them away from shelter. Our results highlight that the negative effects of some traits may be compensated for by the positive effects of other traits, and that the specific ecological context an individual faces (such as the characteristics of its competitors) can have a major influence on successful establishment and persistence.

  10. Conditional random slope: A new approach for estimating individual child growth velocity in epidemiological research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leung, Michael; Bassani, Diego G; Racine-Poon, Amy; Goldenberg, Anna; Ali, Syed Asad; Kang, Gagandeep; Premkumar, Prasanna S; Roth, Daniel E

    2017-09-10

    Conditioning child growth measures on baseline accounts for regression to the mean (RTM). Here, we present the "conditional random slope" (CRS) model, based on a linear-mixed effects model that incorporates a baseline-time interaction term that can accommodate multiple data points for a child while also directly accounting for RTM. In two birth cohorts, we applied five approaches to estimate child growth velocities from 0 to 12 months to assess the effect of increasing data density (number of measures per child) on the magnitude of RTM of unconditional estimates, and the correlation and concordance between the CRS and four alternative metrics. Further, we demonstrated the differential effect of the choice of velocity metric on the magnitude of the association between infant growth and stunting at 2 years. RTM was minimally attenuated by increasing data density for unconditional growth modeling approaches. CRS and classical conditional models gave nearly identical estimates with two measures per child. Compared to the CRS estimates, unconditional metrics had moderate correlation (r = 0.65-0.91), but poor agreement in the classification of infants with relatively slow growth (kappa = 0.38-0.78). Estimates of the velocity-stunting association were the same for CRS and classical conditional models but differed substantially between conditional versus unconditional metrics. The CRS can leverage the flexibility of linear mixed models while addressing RTM in longitudinal analyses. © 2017 The Authors American Journal of Human Biology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Estimating cost-effectiveness of mass cardiopulmonary resuscitation training strategies to improve survival from cardiac arrest in private locations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swor, Robert; Compton, Scott

    2004-01-01

    Most cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) trainees are young, and most cardiac arrests occur in private residences witnessed by older individuals. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a CPR training program targeted at citizens over the age of 50 years compared with that of current nontargeted public CPR training. A model was developed using cardiac arrest and known demographic data from a single suburban zip code (population 36,325) including: local data (1997-1999) regarding cardiac arrest locations (public vs. private); incremental survival with CPR (historical survival rate 7.8%, adjusted odds ratio for CPR 2.0); arrest bystander demographics obtained from bystander telephone interviews; zip code demographics regarding population age and distribution; and 12.50 dollars per student for the cost of CPR training. Published rates of CPR training programs by age were used to estimate the numbers typically trained. Several assumptions were made: 1) there would be one bystander per. arrest; 2) the bystander would always perform CPR if trained; 3) cardiac arrest would be evenly distributed in the population; and 4) CPR training for a proportion of the population would proportionally increase CPR provision. Rates of arrest, bystanders by age, number of CPR trainees needed to result in increased arrest survival, and training cost per life saved for a one-year study period were calculated. There were 24.3 cardiac arrests per year, with 21.9 (90%) occurring in homes. In 66.5% of the home arrests, the bystander was more than 50 years old. To yield one additional survivor using the current CPR training strategy, 12,306 people needed to be trained (3,510 bystanders aged 50 years), which resulted in CPR provision to 7.14 additional patients. The training cost per life saved for a bystander aged 50 years was 785,040 dollars. Using a strategy of training only those cost of 53,383 dollars per life saved. Using these assumptions, current CPR training strategy is not a cost

  12. Transient effects of tendon disconnection on the survivability of a TLP in moderate-strength hurricane conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Moo Hyun Kim

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the dynamic stability and survivability of a four-column classic TLP (tension-leg platform under less-than-extreme storm conditions where one or more tendons have been lost due to damage or disconnect. The transient responses of the platform and tendon tensions at the moment of disconnection are particularly underscored. The numerical simulation is based on the BE-FE hybrid hull-tendon-riser coupled dynamic analysis in time domain. Compared to the common industry practice of checking the system without a failed tendon in the beginning, the maximum tension on the neighboring tendon can be significantly increased at the moment of disconnection due to the snap-like transient effects, which can lead to unexpected failure of the total system. It is also found that the transient effects can be reduced with the presence of TTRs (top-tensioned risers with pneumatic tensioners. It is also seen that the TLP cannot survive in the 100-yr hurricane condition after losing one tendon.

  13. Biofilm generation by Piscirickettsia salmonis under growth stress conditions: a putative in vivo survival/persistence strategy in marine environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, Sergio H; Gómez, Fernando A; Ramírez, Ramón; Nilo, Luis; Henríquez, Vitalia

    2012-01-01

    Piscirickettsia salmonis is a bacterial fish pathogen seriously threatening the sustainability of the Chilean salmon industry. The biology and life cycle of this bacterium is not completely understood and there are no reports explaining how it survives or persists in marine environments. This work provides descriptive data of P. salmonis behavior when it is exposed to stress conditions, producing large cell aggregates closely resembling typical biofilm structures. In order to track this putative biofilm, we used indirect fluorescence and scanning electron microscopy. Complex masses were observed over time; the bacteria appear to be embedded within a matrix which disappears when it is exposed to cellulase, suggesting a polysaccharide nature typical of biofilm formation. Two lectins (ConA and WGA) were used to characterize the matrix. Both lectins showed a strong reaction with the structure, validating the exopolysaccharide nature of the matrix. Recently, several studies have demonstrated a correlation between toxin/anti-toxin system expression at initial stages of biofilm formation. In this report, QRT-PCR analysis was used with the P. salmonis toxin/anti-toxin mazEF operon, showing induction of these genes at early stages of biofilm formation, suggesting that said formation may be an adaptive strategy for survival and persistence under stress conditions in marine environments. Copyright © 2012 Institut Pasteur. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  14. Survival, food consumption and growth of Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) kept in laboratory conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mente, Elena

    2010-09-01

    Successful commercial aquaculture of crustacean species is dependent on satisfying their nutritional requirements and on producing rapidly growing and healthy animals. The results of the present study provide valuable information for feeding habits and growth of Nephrops norvegicus L., 1758) under laboratory conditions. The aim of the present study was to examine food consumption, growth and physiology of the Norway lobster N. norvegicus under laboratory conditions. N. norvegicus (15 g wet weight) were distributed into 1001 tanks consisting of five numbered compartments each. They were fed the experimental diets (frozen mussels and pellets) for a period of 6 months. A group of starved Nephrops was stocked and fasted for 8 months. Although Nephrops grew well when fed the frozen mussels diet, feeding on a dry pellet feed was unsatisfactory. The starvation group, despite the fact that showed the highest mortality (50%), exhibited a remarkable tolerance to the lack of food supply. The study offers further insight by correlating the amino acid profiles of Nephrops tail muscle with the two diets. The deviations from the mussel's diet for asparagine, alanine and glutamic acid suggest a deficiency of these amino acids in this diet. The results of the present study showed that the concentrations of free amino acids are lower in relative amount than those of protein-bound amino acids, except for arginine, proline and glycine. The present study contributes to the improvement of our knowledge on nutritional requirements of the above species. © 2010 ISZS, Blackwell Publishing and IOZ/CAS.

  15. Enthalpy estimation for thermal comfort and energy saving in air conditioning system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chu, C.-M.; Jong, T.-L.

    2008-01-01

    The thermal comfort control of a room must consider not only the thermal comfort level but also energy saving. This paper proposes an enthalpy estimation that is conducive for thermal comfort control and energy saving. The least enthalpy estimator (LEE) combines the concept of human thermal comfort with the theory of enthalpy to predict the load for a suitable setting pair in order to maintain more precisely the thermal comfort level and save energy in the air conditioning system

  16. Demographic aspects of Chrysomya megacephala (Diptera, Calliphoridae) adults maintained under experimental conditions: reproductive rate estimates

    OpenAIRE

    Carvalho, Marcelo Henrique de; Von Zuben, Claudio José

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this work was to evaluate some aspects of the populational ecology of Chrysomya megacephala, analyzing demographic aspects of adults kept under experimental conditions. Cages of C. megacephala adults were prepared with four different larval densities (100, 200, 400 and 800). For each cage, two tables were made: one with demographic parameters for the life expectancy estimate at the initial age (e0), and another with the reproductive rate and average reproduction age estimates...

  17. Long-term survival, prevalence, and cure of cancer: a population-based estimation for 818 902 Italian patients and 26 cancer types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dal Maso, L.; Guzzinati, S.; Buzzoni, C.; Capocaccia, R.; Serraino, D.; Caldarella, A.; Dei Tos, A. P.; Falcini, F.; Autelitano, M.; Masanotti, G.; Ferretti, S.; Tisano, F.; Tirelli, U.; Crocetti, E.; De Angelis, R.; Virdone, S.; Zucchetto, A.; Gigli, A.; Francisci, S.; Baili, P.; Gatta, G.; Castaing, M.; Zanetti, R.; Contiero, P.; Bidoli, E.; Vercelli, M.; Michiara, M.; Federico, M.; Senatore, G.; Pannozzo, F.; Vicentini, M.; Bulatko, A.; Pirino, D. R.; Gentilini, M.; Fusco, M.; Giacomin, A.; Fanetti, A. C.; Cusimano, R.

    2014-01-01

    Background Persons living after a cancer diagnosis represent 4% of the whole population in high-income countries. The aim of the study was to provide estimates of indicators of long-term survival and cure for 26 cancer types, presently lacking. Patients and methods Data on 818 902 Italian cancer patients diagnosed at age 15–74 years in 1985–2005 were included. Proportions of patients with the same death rates of the general population (cure fractions) and those of prevalent patients who were not at risk of dying as a result of cancer (cure prevalence) were calculated, using validated mixture cure models, by cancer type, sex, and age group. We also estimated complete prevalence, conditional relative survival (CRS), time to reach 5- and 10-year CRS >95%, and proportion of patients living longer than those thresholds. Results The cure fractions ranged from >90% for patients aged cancers to cancers of all ages. Five- or 10-year CRS >95% were both reached in cancers of the stomach, colon–rectum, pancreas, corpus and cervix uteri, brain, and Hodgkin lymphoma. For breast cancer patients, 5- and 10-year CRSs reached >95% after 19 and 25 years, respectively, and in 15 and 18 years for prostate cancer patients. Five-year CRS remained 25 years after cancer diagnosis in patients with liver and larynx cancers, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, myeloma, and leukaemia. Overall, the cure prevalence was 67% for men and 77% for women. Therefore, 21% of male and 31% of female patients had already reached 5-year CRS >95%, whereas 18% and 25% had reached 10-year CRS >95%. Conclusions A quarter of Italian cancer patients can be considered cured. This observation has a high potential impact on health planning, clinical practice, and patients' perspective. PMID:25149707

  18. Asymptotics for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator in multivariate fractional time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

    This paper proves consistency and asymptotic normality for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator, which is equivalent to the conditional maximum likelihood estimator, in multivariate fractional time series models. The model is parametric and quite general, and, in particular, encompasses...... the multivariate non-cointegrated fractional ARIMA model. The novelty of the consistency result, in particular, is that it applies to a multivariate model and to an arbitrarily large set of admissible parameter values, for which the objective function does not converge uniformly in probablity, thus making...

  19. System of estimations and prognostications of bodily condition of skilled sportsmen in track-and-field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.I. Bobrovnyk

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The system of estimation and prognostication of bodily condition of skilled athletes is presented. The system includes the complex of pedagogical tests, evaluation tables, estimation of the functional state vegetative, nervous, cardiovascular systems, system of the external breathing. 436 sportsmen took part in research (212 women and 224 men. The analysis of electrocardiography is conducted, variability of cardiac rhythm, determination of vegetative balance, state of myocardium, violations of rhythm of heart, spirometric researches. The estimation of efficiency of activity of sportsman in extreme terms on the basis of type and properties of temperament, level of personality anxiety and estimation of psychological reliability of sportsmen is presented. The criteria of estimation of physical preparedness are certain, functional state of the basic systems of organism, influencing in a greater degree on achievement of high sporting results, psychological state of sportsmen.

  20. Survival of Ucides cordatus (Decapoda: Ocypodidae megalopae during transport under different conditions of density and duration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robson Ventura

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Target areas for Ucides cordatus (Linnaeus, 1763 restocking programs are often located far from the laboratory where larval rearing is developed. During translocation, the larvae are submitted to highly stressful conditions due to handling, packing, and transport activities. The aim of the present study was to assess the mortality rates of U. cordatus megalopae caused by different transportation procedures. Megalopae at loading densities of 50, 150, and 300 ind.L-1 were packed in double polyethylene 12 x 25 cm plastic bags with 200 ml of marine water at salinity 30. The bags were filled with oxygen at a proportion of 1:2 parts of water and sealed tightly. The trepidations during transport were simulated by the use of a shaker device (800 vibrations/minute over periods of three and six hours inside a dark container. The survivorship rates of larvae after simulation were compared to those obtained in control groups, which consisted of plastic vials with megalopae at a loading density of 50 ind.L-1 maintained at rest. Immediately after the two transport simulations, there was no significant difference in survivorship between the treatments and the control. However, 24 hours after simulation some of the tested densities resulted in significantly lower survivorships. The results demonstrated that U. cordatus megalopae can tolerate six hours of shaking during transportation, at high densities with minimal mortality.

  1. Estimation of absorbed dose for poor shields under conditions of near-earth space flight

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Konyukov, V.V.; Krajnyukov, V.I.; Trufanov, A.I.

    1995-01-01

    Estimation of electron absorbed dose in materials of a space vehicle for poor shields under conditions of near-earth space flight is carried out. Impact of power and angular distribution of incidence electrons and radiation scattering processes under conditions of complex geometry and multitude of materials of flight vehicle elements and nodes is studied through simulator model by example of isolating layer of aluminium-polyethylene assembly. 3 refs.; 2 figs

  2. The Kernel Mixture Network: A Nonparametric Method for Conditional Density Estimation of Continuous Random Variables

    OpenAIRE

    Ambrogioni, Luca; Güçlü, Umut; van Gerven, Marcel A. J.; Maris, Eric

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces the kernel mixture network, a new method for nonparametric estimation of conditional probability densities using neural networks. We model arbitrarily complex conditional densities as linear combinations of a family of kernel functions centered at a subset of training points. The weights are determined by the outer layer of a deep neural network, trained by minimizing the negative log likelihood. This generalizes the popular quantized softmax approach, which can be seen ...

  3. Complex layered dental restorations: Are they recognizable and do they survive extreme conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soon, Alistair S; Bush, Mary A; Bush, Peter J

    2015-09-01

    Recent research has shown that restorative dental materials can be recognized by microscopy and elemental analysis (scanning electron microscopy/energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy and X-ray fluorescence; SEM/EDS and XRF) and that this is possible even in extreme conditions, such as cremation. These analytical methods and databases of dental materials properties have proven useful in DVI (disaster victim identification) of a commercial plane crash in 2009, and in a number of other victim identification cases. Dental materials appear on the market with ever expanding frequency. With their advent, newer methods of restoration have been proposed and adopted in the dental office. Methods might include placing multiple layers of dental materials, where they have different properties including adhesion, viscosity, or working time. These different dental materials include filled adhesives, flowable resins, glass ionomer cements, composite resins, liners and sealants. With possible combinations of different materials in these restorations, the forensic odontologist is now confronted with a new difficulty; how to recognize each individual material. The question might be posed if it is even possible to perform this task. Furthermore, an odontologist might be called upon to identify a victim under difficult circumstances, such as when presented with fragmented or incinerated remains. In these circumstances the ability to identify specific dental materials could assist in the identification of the deceased. Key to use of this information is whether these new materials and methods are detailed in the dental chart. Visual or radiographic inspection may not reveal the presence of a restoration, let alone the possible complex nature of that restoration. This study demonstrates another scientific method in forensic dental identification. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Cell survival under nutrient stress is dependent on metabolic conditions regulated by Akt and not by autophagic vacuoles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruno, P; Calastretti, A; Priulla, M; Asnaghi, L; Scarlatti, F; Nicolin, A; Canti, G

    2007-10-01

    Akt activation assists tumor cell survival and promotes resistance to chemotherapy. Here we show that constitutively active Akt (CA-Akt) cells are highly sensitized to cell death induced by nutrient and growth factor deprivation, whereas dominant-negative Akt (DN-Akt) cells have a high rate of survival. The content of autophagosomes in starved CA-Akt cells was high, while DN-Akt cells expressed autophagic vacuoles constitutively, independently of nutrition conditions. Thus Akt down-regulation and downstream events can induce autophagosomes which were not directly determinants of cell death. Biochemical analysis in Akt-mutated cells show that (i) Akt and mTOR proteins were degraded more rapidly than the housekeeping proteins, (ii) mTOR phosphorylation at position Thr(2446) was relatively high in DN-Akt and low in CA-Akt cells, induced by starvation in mock cells only, which suggests reduced autoregulation of these pathways in Akt-mutated cells, (iii) both protein synthesis and protein degradation were significantly higher in starved CA-Akt cells than in starved DN-Akt cells or mock cells. In conclusion, constitutively active Akt, unable to control synthesis and wasting of proteins, accelerates the death of starved cells.

  5. Albedo and estimates of net radiation for green beans under polyethylene cover and field conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Souza, J.L. de; Escobedo, J.F.; Tornero, M.T.T.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes the albedo (r) and estimates of net radiation and global solar irradiance for green beans crop (Phaseolus vulgaris L.), cultivated in greenhouse with cover of polyethylene and field conditions, in Botucatu, SP, Brazil (22° 54' S; 48° 27' W; 850 m). The solar global irradiance (R g ) and solar reflected radiation (R r ) were used to estimate the albedo through the ratio between R r and R g . The diurnal curves of albedo were obtained for days with clear sky and partially cloudy conditions, for different phenological stages of the crop. The albedo ranged with the solar elevation, the environment and the phenological stages. The cloudiness range have almost no influence on the albedo diurnal amount. The estimation of radiation were made by linear regression, using the global solar irradiance (R g ) and net short-waves radiation (R c ) as independent variables. All estimates of radiation showed better adjustment for specific phenological periods compared to the entire crop growing cycle. The net radiation in the greenhouse has been estimated by the global solar irradiance measured at field conditions. (author) [pt

  6. The finite sample performance of estimators for mediation analysis under sequential conditional independence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huber, Martin; Lechner, Michael; Mellace, Giovanni

    Using a comprehensive simulation study based on empirical data, this paper investigates the finite sample properties of different classes of parametric and semi-parametric estimators of (natural) direct and indirect causal effects used in mediation analysis under sequential conditional independence...

  7. Estimation of the mechanical loading of the shoulder joint in daily conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vries, W.H.K.

    2015-01-01

    The goal of this thesis is to assemble a method to estimate shoulder joint reaction forces, in daily conditions, based on long term collection of ambulatory measurable variables, to obtain the desired long term mechanical load profile of the shoulder. Chapter 2 examines, and discusses one of the

  8. Learning-based encoding with soft assignment for age estimation under unconstrained imaging conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alnajar, F.; Shan, C.; Gevers, T.; Geusebroek, J.M.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we propose to adopt a learning-based encoding method for age estimation under unconstrained imaging conditions. A similar approach [Cao et al., 2010] is applied to face recognition in real-life face images. However, the feature vectors are encoded in hard manner i.e. each feature

  9. The finite sample performance of estimators for mediation analysis under sequential conditional independence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Huber, Martin; Lechner, Michael; Mellace, Giovanni

    2016-01-01

    Using a comprehensive simulation study based on empirical data, this paper investigates the finite sample properties of different classes of parametric and semi-parametric estimators of (natural) direct and indirect causal effects used in mediation analysis under sequential conditional independen...... of the methods often (but not always) varies with the features of the data generating process....

  10. Estimating the Condition of the Heat Resistant Lining in an Electrical Reduction Furnace

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan G. Waalmann

    1988-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a system for estimating the condition of the heat resistant lining in an electrical reduction furnace for ferrosilicon. The system uses temperature measured with thermocouples placed on the outside of the furnace-pot. These measurements are used together with a mathematical model of the temperature distribution in the lining in a recursive least squares algorithm to estimate the position of 'the transformation front'. The system is part of a monitoring system which is being developed in the AIP-project: 'Condition monitoring of strongly exposed process equipment in thc ferroalloy industry'. The estimator runs on-line, and results arc presented in colour-graphics on a display unit. The goal is to locate the transformation front with an accuracy of +- 5cm.

  11. Occurrence of Shewanella algae in Danish coastal water and effects of water temperature and culture conditions on its survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gram, Lone; Bundvad, Anemone; Melchiorsen, Jette

    1999-01-01

    increased to 10(5) to 10(7) CFU/ml at room temperature. Most probable number analysis showed this result to be due to regrowth rather than resuscitation. It was hypothesized that S. algae would survive cold exposure better if in the biofilm state; however, culturable counts from S. algae biofilms decreased......The marine bacterium Shewanella algae, which was identified as the cause of human cases of bacteremia and ear infections in Denmark in the summers of 1994 and 1995, was detected in seawater only during the months (July, August, September, and October) when the water temperature was above 13 degrees...... C. The bacterium is a typical mesophilic organism, and model experiments were conducted to elucidate the fate of the organism under cold and nutrient-limited conditions. The culturable count of S. algae decreased rapidly from 10(7) CFU/ml to 10(1) CFU/ml in approximately 1 month when cells grown...

  12. Estimation of Body Weight from Body Size Measurements and Body Condition Scores in Dairy Cows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enevoldsen, Carsten; Kristensen, T.

    1997-01-01

    , and body condition score were consistently associated with BW. The coefficients of multiple determination varied from 80 to 89%. The number of significant terms and the parameter estimates of the models differed markedly among groups of cows. Apparently, these differences were due to breed and feeding...... regimen. Results from this study indicate that a reliable model for estimating BW of very different dairy cows maintained in a wide range of environments can be developed using body condition score, demographic information, and measurements of hip height and hip width. However, for management purposes......The objective of this study was to evaluate the use of hip height and width, body condition score, and relevant demographic information to predict body weight (BW) of dairy cows. Seven regression models were developed from data from 972 observations of 554 cows. Parity, hip height, hip width...

  13. Estimation of Road Friction Coefficient in Different Road Conditions Based on Vehicle Braking Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, You-Qun; Li, Hai-Qing; Lin, Fen; Wang, Jian; Ji, Xue-Wu

    2017-07-01

    The accurate estimation of road friction coefficient in the active safety control system has become increasingly prominent. Most previous studies on road friction estimation have only used vehicle longitudinal or lateral dynamics and often ignored the load transfer, which tends to cause inaccurate of the actual road friction coefficient. A novel method considering load transfer of front and rear axles is proposed to estimate road friction coefficient based on braking dynamic model of two-wheeled vehicle. Sliding mode control technique is used to build the ideal braking torque controller, which control target is to control the actual wheel slip ratio of front and rear wheels tracking the ideal wheel slip ratio. In order to eliminate the chattering problem of the sliding mode controller, integral switching surface is used to design the sliding mode surface. A second order linear extended state observer is designed to observe road friction coefficient based on wheel speed and braking torque of front and rear wheels. The proposed road friction coefficient estimation schemes are evaluated by simulation in ADAMS/Car. The results show that the estimated values can well agree with the actual values in different road conditions. The observer can estimate road friction coefficient exactly in real-time and resist external disturbance. The proposed research provides a novel method to estimate road friction coefficient with strong robustness and more accurate.

  14. Estimating health state utility values for comorbid health conditions using SF-6D data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ara, Roberta; Brazier, John

    2011-01-01

    When health state utility values for comorbid health conditions are not available, data from cohorts with single conditions are used to estimate scores. The methods used can produce very different results and there is currently no consensus on which is the most appropriate approach. The objective of the current study was to compare the accuracy of five different methods within the same dataset. Data collected during five Welsh Health Surveys were subgrouped by health status. Mean short-form 6 dimension (SF-6D) scores for cohorts with a specific health condition were used to estimate mean SF-6D scores for cohorts with comorbid conditions using the additive, multiplicative, and minimum methods, the adjusted decrement estimator (ADE), and a linear regression model. The mean SF-6D for subgroups with comorbid health conditions ranged from 0.4648 to 0.6068. The linear model produced the most accurate scores for the comorbid health conditions with 88% of values accurate to within the minimum important difference for the SF-6D. The additive and minimum methods underestimated or overestimated the actual SF-6D scores respectively. The multiplicative and ADE methods both underestimated the majority of scores. However, both methods performed better when estimating scores smaller than 0.50. Although the range in actual health state utility values (HSUVs) was relatively small, our data covered the lower end of the index and the majority of previous research has involved actual HSUVs at the upper end of possible ranges. Although the linear model gave the most accurate results in our data, additional research is required to validate our findings. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Setting the light conditions for measuring root transparency for age-at-death estimation methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adserias-Garriga, Joe; Nogué-Navarro, Laia; Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2018-03-01

    Age-at-death estimation is one of the main goals in forensic identification, being an essential parameter to determine the biological profile, narrowing the possibility of identification in cases involving missing persons and unidentified bodies. The study of dental tissues has been long considered as a proper tool for age estimation with several age estimation methods based on them. Dental age estimation methods can be divided into three categories: tooth formation and development, post-formation changes, and histological changes. While tooth formation and growth changes are important for fetal and infant consideration, when the end of dental and skeletal growth is achieved, post-formation or biochemical changes can be applied. Lamendin et al. in J Forensic Sci 37:1373-1379, (1992) developed an adult age estimation method based on root transparency and periodontal recession. The regression formula demonstrated its accuracy of use for 40 to 70-year-old individuals. Later on, Prince and Ubelaker in J Forensic Sci 47(1):107-116, (2002) evaluated the effects of ancestry and sex and incorporated root height into the equation, developing four new regression formulas for males and females of African and European ancestry. Even though root transparency is a key element in the method, the conditions for measuring this element have not been established. The aim of the present study is to set the light conditions measured in lumens that offer greater accuracy when applying the Lamendin et al. method modified by Prince and Ubelaker. The results must be also taken into account in the application of other age estimation methodologies using root transparency to estimate age-at-death.

  16. Updated estimates of survival and cost effectiveness for imatinib versus interferon-alpha plus low-dose cytarabine for newly diagnosed chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukaemia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, Shelby D; Anstrom, Kevin J; Li, Yanhong; Schulman, Kevin A

    2008-01-01

    For trials in which participants are followed beyond the main study period to assess long-term outcomes, economic evaluations conducted using short-term data should be systematically updated to reflect new information. We used 60-month survival data from the IRIS (International Randomized study of Interferon vs STI571) trial to update previously published cost-effectiveness estimates, based on 19 months of follow-up, of imatinib versus interferon (IFN)-alpha plus low-dose cytarabine in patients with chronic-phase chronic myeloid leukaemia. For patients treated with imatinib, we used the 60-month data to calibrate the survival curves generated from the original cost-effectiveness model. We used historical data to model survival for patients randomized to IFNalpha. We updated costs for medical resources using 2006 Medicare reimbursement rates and applied average wholesale prices (AWPs) and wholesale acquisition costs (WACs) to study medications. Five-year survival for patients randomized to imatinib was better than predicted in the original model (89.4% vs 83.2%). We estimated remaining life expectancy with first-line imatinib to be 19.1 life-years (3.8 life-years over the original model) and 15.2 QALYs (3.1 QALYs over the original estimate). Estimates for IFNalpha remained at 9.1 life-years and 6.3 QALYs. When we applied AWPs to study medications, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were $US 51,800-57,500 per QALY. When we applied WACs, ICERs were $US 42,000-46,200 per QALY. Although the analysis revealed that the original survival estimates were conservative, the updated cost-effectiveness ratios were consistent with, or slightly higher than, the original estimates, depending on the method for assigning costs to study medications.

  17. Effects of acidifying ocean conditions on growth and survival of two life stages of the blue crab, Callinectes sapidus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giltz, S.; Taylor, C.

    2016-02-01

    Blue crabs, Callinectes sapidus, begin their larval phase offshore and circulate for approximately 30 days before settling near shore. As crabs transition to the juvenile stage, they move into coastal or estuarine environments characterized by lower salinity. Presently the average pH of the ocean is 8.1, 30% down from the beginning of the industrial revolution and is forecasted to drop to 7.8 by 2100. Decreasing pH causes dissolution of calcium carbonate shells, but the overall effects on crustaceans, such as blue crabs, are unknown. This study investigated the effect of a lower pH environment on the growth, survival, carapace hardness and molt frequency of larval and juvenile blue crabs in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Larval crabs showed delayed growth under low pH (7.8) conditions compared to crabs in a control (present day) pH (8.1) environment. Population crashes (complete mortality) were experienced in 55% of the low pH aquaria but not in any of the control aquaria, suggesting that acidification poses a mortality risk. Under low pH conditions the intermolt duration decreased in juveniles, but the body length and weight did not differ from crabs raised in the control pH. Larvae (in tanks that did not crash) and juveniles did not experience increased mortality from a lower pH, but there do appear to be sublethal effects on growth and molting that differ between life history stages.

  18. The Course of Parturition Affects Piglet Condition at Birth and Survival and Growth through the Nursery Phase.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langendijk, Pieter; Fleuren, Marleen; van Hees, Hubèrt; van Kempen, Theo

    2018-04-24

    The aim of this study was to relate the course of parturition to the condition of piglets at birth, based on umbilical cord blood acid-base values, and relate the condition at birth to neonatal survival and performance up to 10 weeks of life. Data were collected from 37 spontaneous unassisted parturitions, and neonatal performance was based on observations of 516 piglets. Stillbirth rate increased from 2% in the first piglets, to 17% in piglets born 13th in the litter or later. This was aggravated in sows with longer than average stage II of parturition. Umbilical cord blood values also reflected the effect of birth order, with pH decreasing and lactate increasing in the course of parturition. Interestingly, sows that had a long expulsion stage of parturition also took longer to give birth to the first four piglets (r = 0.74), suggesting that sows with complicated parturition were already experiencing problems at the start of expulsion of piglets. Piglets with signs of asphyxia, based on umbilical blood lactate higher than 4.46 mmol/L, were slower to start suckling, had a higher risk of neonatal mortality, and had a slower growth rate over the first 10 weeks of life.

  19. Effects of cutting date, outdoor storage conditions, and splitting on survival of Agrilus planipennis (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) in firewood logs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petrice, Toby R; Haack, Robert A

    2006-06-01

    The emerald ash borer Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) is an exotic pest of ash (Fraxinus spp.) in North America. We conducted studies in Michigan to evaluate how different tree cutting dates, outdoor storage conditions, and splitting affected A. planipennis survival in firewood logs. In 2002-2003, we cut logs from A. planipennis-infested ash trees each month, from July to October, and stored half of the logs in shade and half in full sun. In 2003-2004, we tested logs cut July-December; stored in sun versus shade; tarped versus untarped; and whole logs versus split logs. For both years, A. planipennis successfully emerged the summer after cutting from logs that represented all treatments and all cutting dates tested. Adult emergence density was significantly lower in logs cut in July and August. In 2003-2004, A. planipennis adult length was significantly shorter, and percentage of mortality was significantly higher for logs cut in August compared with later months. Emergence density was significantly lower for split logs compared with whole logs for all cutting months except for December. There was no significant difference in adult emergence density between logs stored in full sun versus shade in 2002-2003. In 2003-2004, untarped logs in full sun or shade had significantly lower adult emergence densities than tarped logs in the sun or shade. In conclusion, emergence, survival, and size of A. planipennis was significantly reduced if logs were cut early during larval development (July or August); splitting logs and storing them untarped in full sun or shade further reduced adult emergence. No treatment was 100% effective in preventing adult emergence.

  20. The use of simple reparameterizations to improve the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation for multilevel models with applications to discrete time survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, William J; Steele, Fiona; Golalizadeh, Mousa; Green, Martin J

    2009-06-01

    We consider the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods to random-effects models and in particular the family of discrete time survival models. Survival models can be used in many situations in the medical and social sciences and we illustrate their use through two examples that differ in terms of both substantive area and data structure. A multilevel discrete time survival analysis involves expanding the data set so that the model can be cast as a standard multilevel binary response model. For such models it has been shown that MCMC methods have advantages in terms of reducing estimate bias. However, the data expansion results in very large data sets for which MCMC estimation is often slow and can produce chains that exhibit poor mixing. Any way of improving the mixing will result in both speeding up the methods and more confidence in the estimates that are produced. The MCMC methodological literature is full of alternative algorithms designed to improve mixing of chains and we describe three reparameterization techniques that are easy to implement in available software. We consider two examples of multilevel survival analysis: incidence of mastitis in dairy cattle and contraceptive use dynamics in Indonesia. For each application we show where the reparameterization techniques can be used and assess their performance.

  1. Burden of emergency conditions and emergency care utilization: New estimates from 40 countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Cindy Y.; Abujaber, Samer; Reynolds, Teri A.; Camargo, Carlos A.; Obermeyer, Ziad

    2016-01-01

    Objective To estimate the global and national burden of emergency conditions, and compare them to emergency care utilization rates. Methods We coded all 291 Global Burden of Disease 2010 conditions into three categories to estimate emergency burden: conditions that, if not addressed within hours to days of onset, commonly lead to serious disability or death; conditions with common acute decompensations that lead to serious disability or death; and non-emergencies. Emergency care utilization rates were obtained from a systematic literature review on emergency care facilities in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), supplemented by national health system reports. Findings All 15 leading causes of death and DALYs globally were conditions with potential emergent manifestations. We identified 41 facility-based reports in 23 countries, 12 of which were in LMICs; data for 17 additional countries were obtained from national or regional reports on emergency utilization. Burden of emergency conditions was the highest in low-income countries, with median DALYs of 47,728 per 100,000 population (IQR 45,253-50,085) in low-income, 25,186 (IQR 21,982-40,480) in middle-income, and 15,691 (IQR 14,649-16,382) in high-income countries. Patterns were similar using deaths to measure burden and excluding acute decompensations from the definition of emergency conditions. Conversely, emergency utilization rates were the lowest in low-income countries, with median 8 visits per 1,000 population (IQR 6-10), 78 (IQR 25-197) in middle-income, and 264 (IQR 177-341) in high-income countries. Conclusion Despite higher burden of emergency conditions, emergency utilization rates are substantially lower in LMICs, likely due to limited access to emergency care. PMID:27334758

  2. Efficacious of estimatives of thermal-hydraulic conditions of the PWR core by measured parameters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Camargo, C.T.M.; Pontedeiro, A.C.

    1985-01-01

    Using ALMOD 3W2 and COBRA IIIP computer codes an evaluation of usual methods of estimatives of heat transfer conditions in the PWR core was made, using variables of the monitored processes. It was done a parametric study in conditions of the permanent regim to verify the influence of variables such as, pressure, temperature and power in the value of critical heat flux. Parameters to prevent the DNB phenomenon in KWU power plants and Westinghouse were calculated and implemented in the ALMOD 3W2 program to estimate the DNBR evolution. It was identified a common origin to both methods and comparing with detailed calculations of the COBRA IIIP code, it was settled limitations in the application of parameters. (M.C.K.) [pt

  3. Estimation of In-Situ Groundwater Conditions Based on Geochemical Equilibrium Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toshiyuki Hokari

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a means of estimating in-situ groundwater pH and oxidation-redox potential (ORP, two very important parameters for species migration analysis in safety assessments for radioactive waste disposal or carbon dioxide sequestration. The method was applied to a pumping test in a deep borehole drilled in a tertiary formation in Japan for validation. The following application examples are presented: when applied to several other pumping tests at the same site, it could estimate distributions of the in-situ groundwater pH and ORP; applied to multiple points selected in the groundwater database of Japan, it could help estimate the in-situ redox reaction governing the groundwater conditions in some areas.

  4. Simulation of microcirculatory hemodynamics: estimation of boundary condition using particle swarm optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Qing; Wang, Ruofan; Reglin, Bettina; Fang, Luping; Pries, Axel R; Ning, Gangmin

    2014-01-01

    Estimation of the boundary condition is a critical problem in simulating hemodynamics in microvascular networks. This paper proposed a boundary estimation strategy based on a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, which aims to minimize the number of vessels with inverted flow direction in comparison to the experimental observation. The algorithm took boundary values as the particle swarm and updated the position of the particles iteratively to approach the optimization target. The method was tested in a real rat mesenteric network. With random initial boundary values, the method achieved a minimized 9 segments with an inverted flow direction in the network with 546 vessels. Compared with reported literature, the current work has the advantage of a better fit with experimental observations and is more suitable for the boundary estimation problem in pulsatile hemodynamic models due to the experiment-based optimization target selection.

  5. Estimating quality adjusted progression free survival of first-line treatments for EGFR mutation positive non small cell lung cancer patients in The Netherlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verduyn S

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gefitinib, a tyrosine kinase inhibitor, is an effective treatment in advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients with an activating mutation in the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR. Randomised clinical trials showed a benefit in progression free survival for gefitinib versus doublet chemotherapy regimens in patients with an activated EGFR mutation (EGFR M+. From a patient perspective, progression free survival is important, but so is health-related quality of life. Therefore, this analysis evaluates the Quality Adjusted progression free survival of gefitinib versus three relevant doublet chemotherapies (gemcitabine/cisplatin (Gem/Cis; pemetrexed/cisplatin (Pem/Cis; paclitaxel/carboplatin (Pac/Carb in a Dutch health care setting in patients with EGFR M+ stage IIIB/IV NSCLC. This study uses progression free survival rather than overall survival for its time frame in order to better compare the treatments and to account for the influence that subsequent treatment lines would have on overall survival analysis. Methods Mean progression free survival for Pac/Carb was obtained by extrapolating the median progression free survival as reported in the Iressa-Pan-Asia Study (IPASS. Data from a network meta-analysis was used to estimate the mean progression free survival for therapies of interest relative to Pac/Carb. Adjustment for health-related quality of life was done by incorporating utilities for the Dutch population, obtained by converting FACT-L data (from IPASS to utility values and multiplying these with the mean progression free survival for each treatment arm to determine the Quality Adjusted progression free survival. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine 95% credibility intervals. Results The Quality Adjusted progression free survival (PFS (mean, (95% credibility interval was 5.2 months (4.5; 5.8 for Gem/Cis, 5.3 months (4.6; 6.1 for Pem/Cis; 4.9 months (4.4; 5.5 for Pac/Carb and 8

  6. Estimation of the optimal operating conditions for a radiation chemical neutralization unit

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Putilov, A.V.; Kamenetskaya, S.A.; Pshezhetskii, S.Ya.; Kazakov, M.S.; Kudryavtsev, S.L.; Petrukhin, N.V.; Misharin, B.A.; Koneev, V.Z.

    1985-01-01

    An estimate is made of the effect of the hydrodynamic conditions on the efficiency of foam units for the radiation chemical neutralization of impurities, taking into account the penetrating power of accelerated electrons having various energies. Expressions are obtained for calculating the efficiency of such units with sectionized operation of the chamber and taking account of the effect of incomplete mixing of the products of radiolysis through the height of the foam layer

  7. Estimate of radionuclide release characteristics into containment under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nourbakhsh, H.P.

    1993-11-01

    A detailed review of the available light water reactor source term information is presented as a technical basis for development of updated source terms into the containment under severe accident conditions. Simplified estimates of radionuclide release and transport characteristics are specified for each unique combination of the reactor coolant and containment system combinations. A quantitative uncertainty analysis in the release to the containment using NUREG-1150 methodology is also presented

  8. Estimation of antecedent wetness conditions for flood modelling in northern Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In northern Morocco are located most of the dams and reservoirs of the country, while this region is affected by severe rainfall events causing floods. To improve the management of the water regulation structures, there is a need to develop rainfall–runoff models to both maximize the storage capacity and reduce the risks caused by floods. In this study, a model is developed to reproduce the flood events for a 655 km2 catchment located upstream of the 6th largest dam in Morocco. Constrained by data availability, a standard event-based model combining a SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number loss model and a Clark unit hydrograph was developed for hourly discharge simulation using 16 flood events that occurred between 1984 and 2008. The model was found satisfactory to reproduce the runoff and the temporal evolution of floods, even with limited rainfall data. Several antecedent wetness conditions estimators for the catchment were compared with the initial condition of the model. Theses estimators include an antecedent discharge index, an antecedent precipitation index and a continuous daily soil moisture accounting model (SMA, based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The SMA model performed the best to estimate the initial conditions of the event-based hydrological model (R2 = 0.9. Its daily output has been compared with ASCAT and AMSR-E remote sensing data products, which were both able to reproduce with accuracy the daily simulated soil moisture dynamics at the catchment scale. This same approach could be implemented in other catchments of this region for operational purposes. The results of this study suggest that remote sensing data are potentially useful to estimate the soil moisture conditions in the case of ungauged catchments in Northern Africa.

  9. Numerical estimate of fracture parameters under elastic and elastic-plastic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soba, Alejandro; Denis, Alicia C.

    2003-01-01

    The importance of the stress intensity factor K in the elastic fracture analysis is well known. In this work three methods are developed to estimate the parameter K I , corresponding to the normal loading mode, employing the finite elements method. The elastic-plastic condition is also analyzed, where the line integral J is the relevant parameter. Two cases of interest are studied: sample with a crack in its center and tubes with internal pressure. (author)

  10. A smartphone-driven methodology for estimating physical activities and energy expenditure in free living conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guidoux, Romain; Duclos, Martine; Fleury, Gérard; Lacomme, Philippe; Lamaudière, Nicolas; Manenq, Pierre-Henri; Paris, Ludivine; Ren, Libo; Rousset, Sylvie

    2014-12-01

    This paper introduces a function dedicated to the estimation of total energy expenditure (TEE) of daily activities based on data from accelerometers integrated into smartphones. The use of mass-market sensors such as accelerometers offers a promising solution for the general public due to the growing smartphone market over the last decade. The TEE estimation function quality was evaluated using data from intensive numerical experiments based, first, on 12 volunteers equipped with a smartphone and two research sensors (Armband and Actiheart) in controlled conditions (CC) and, then, on 30 other volunteers in free-living conditions (FLC). The TEE given by these two sensors in both conditions and estimated from the metabolic equivalent tasks (MET) in CC served as references during the creation and evaluation of the function. The TEE mean gap in absolute value between the function and the three references was 7.0%, 16.4% and 2.7% in CC, and 17.0% and 23.7% according to Armband and Actiheart, respectively, in FLC. This is the first step in the definition of a new feedback mechanism that promotes self-management and daily-efficiency evaluation of physical activity as part of an information system dedicated to the prevention of chronic diseases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Diversity of Survival Patterns among Escherichia coli O157:H7 Genotypes Subjected to Food-Related Stress Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elhadidy, Mohamed; Álvarez-Ordóñez, Avelino

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the resistance patterns to food-related stresses of Shiga toxin producing Escherichia coli O157:H7 strains belonging to specific genotypes. A total of 33 E. coli O157:H7 strains were exposed to seven different stress conditions acting as potential selective pressures affecting the transmission of E. coli O157:H7 to humans through the food chain. These stress conditions included cold, oxidative, osmotic, acid, heat, freeze-thaw, and starvation stresses. The genotypes used for comparison included lineage-specific polymorphism, Shiga-toxin-encoding bacteriophage insertion sites, clade type, tir (A255T) polymorphism, Shiga toxin 2 subtype, and antiterminator Q gene allele. Bacterial resistance to different stressors was calculated by determining D-values (times required for inactivation of 90% of the bacterial population), which were then subjected to univariate and multivariate analyses. In addition, a relative stress resistance value, integrating resistance values to all tested stressors, was calculated for each bacterial strain and allowed for a ranking-type classification of E. coli O157:H7 strains according to their environmental robustness. Lineage I/II strains were found to be significantly more resistant to acid, cold, and starvation stress than lineage II strains. Similarly, tir (255T) and clade 8 encoding strains were significantly more resistant to acid, heat, cold, and starvation stress than tir (255A) and non-clade 8 strains. Principal component analysis, which allows grouping of strains with similar stress survival characteristics, separated strains of lineage I and I/II from strains of lineage II, which in general showed reduced survival abilities. Results obtained suggest that lineage I/II, tir (255T), and clade 8 strains, which have been previously reported to be more frequently associated with human disease cases, have greater multiple stress resistance than strains of other genotypes. The results from this

  12. DC Link Current Estimation in Wind-Double Feed Induction Generator Power Conditioning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIAN GAICEANU

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper the implementation of the DC link current estimator in power conditioning system of the variable speed wind turbine is shown. The wind turbine is connected to double feed induction generator (DFIG. The variable electrical energy parameters delivered by DFIG are fitted with the electrical grid parameters through back-to-back power converter. The bidirectional AC-AC power converter covers a wide speed range from subsynchronous to supersynchronous speeds. The modern control of back-to-back power converter involves power balance concept, therefore its load power should be known in any instant. By using the power balance control, the DC link voltage variation at the load changes can be reduced. In this paper the load power is estimated from the dc link, indirectly, through a second order DC link current estimator. The load current estimator is based on the DC link voltage and on the dc link input current of the rotor side converter. This method presents certain advantages instead of using measured method, which requires a low pass filter: no time delay, the feedforward current component has no ripple, no additional hardware, and more fast control response. Through the numerical simulation the performances of the proposed DC link output current estimator scheme are demonstrated.

  13. Effects of sampling conditions on DNA-based estimates of American black bear abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Laufenberg, Jared S.; Van Manen, Frank T.; Clark, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    DNA-based capture-mark-recapture techniques are commonly used to estimate American black bear (Ursus americanus) population abundance (N). Although the technique is well established, many questions remain regarding study design. In particular, relationships among N, capture probability of heterogeneity mixtures A and B (pA and pB, respectively, or p, collectively), the proportion of each mixture (π), number of capture occasions (k), and probability of obtaining reliable estimates of N are not fully understood. We investigated these relationships using 1) an empirical dataset of DNA samples for which true N was unknown and 2) simulated datasets with known properties that represented a broader array of sampling conditions. For the empirical data analysis, we used the full closed population with heterogeneity data type in Program MARK to estimate N for a black bear population in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, Tennessee. We systematically reduced the number of those samples used in the analysis to evaluate the effect that changes in capture probabilities may have on parameter estimates. Model-averaged N for females and males were 161 (95% CI = 114–272) and 100 (95% CI = 74–167), respectively (pooled N = 261, 95% CI = 192–419), and the average weekly p was 0.09 for females and 0.12 for males. When we reduced the number of samples of the empirical data, support for heterogeneity models decreased. For the simulation analysis, we generated capture data with individual heterogeneity covering a range of sampling conditions commonly encountered in DNA-based capture-mark-recapture studies and examined the relationships between those conditions and accuracy (i.e., probability of obtaining an estimated N that is within 20% of true N), coverage (i.e., probability that 95% confidence interval includes true N), and precision (i.e., probability of obtaining a coefficient of variation ≤20%) of estimates using logistic regression. The capture probability

  14. An enzyme-linked immunoabsorbent assay for estimating red cell survival of transfused red cells-validation using CR-51 labeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drew, H.; Kickler, T.; Smith, B.; LaFrance, N.

    1984-01-01

    The survival time of transfused red cells antigenically distinct from the recipient's red cells was determined using an indirect enzyme linked antiglobulin test. These results were then compared to those determined by Cr-51 labeling. Three patients with hypoproliferative anemias and one patient (2 studies) with traumatic hemolytic anemia caused by a prosthetic heart valve were studied. Survival times were performed by transfusing a 5cc aliquot of Cr-51 labeled cells along with the remaining unit. One hour post transfusion, a blood sample was drawn and used as the 100% value. Subsequent samples drawn over a 2-3 week period were then compared to the initial sample to determine percent survival for both methods. The ELISA method for measuring red cell survival in antigenically distinct cells is in close agreement with the Cr-51 method. Although CR-51 labeling is the accepted method for red cell survival determination the ELISA method can be used when radioisotopes are unavailable or contraindicated or when the decision to estimate red cell survival is made after transfusion

  15. Remaining useful life estimation in heterogeneous fleets working under variable operating conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Dahidi, Sameer; Di Maio, Francesco; Baraldi, Piero; Zio, Enrico

    2016-01-01

    The availability of condition monitoring data for large fleets of similar equipment motivates the development of data-driven prognostic approaches that capitalize on the information contained in such data to estimate equipment Remaining Useful Life (RUL). A main difficulty is that the fleet of equipment typically experiences different operating conditions, which influence both the condition monitoring data and the degradation processes that physically determine the RUL. We propose an approach for RUL estimation from heterogeneous fleet data based on three phases: firstly, the degradation levels (states) of an homogeneous discrete-time finite-state semi-markov model are identified by resorting to an unsupervised ensemble clustering approach. Then, the parameters of the discrete Weibull distributions describing the transitions among the states and their uncertainties are inferred by resorting to the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and to the Fisher Information Matrix (FIM), respectively. Finally, the inferred degradation model is used to estimate the RUL of fleet equipment by direct Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The proposed approach is applied to two case studies regarding heterogeneous fleets of aluminium electrolytic capacitors and turbofan engines. Results show the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting the RUL and its superiority compared to a fuzzy similarity-based approach of literature. - Highlights: • The prediction of the remaining useful life for heterogeneous fleets is addressed. • A data-driven prognostics approach based on a Markov model is proposed. • The proposed approach is applied to two different heterogeneous fleets. • The results are compared with those obtained by a fuzzy similarity-based approach.

  16. Effect of Brood Pheromone on Survival and Nutrient Intake of African Honey Bees (Apis mellifera scutellata) under Controlled Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Démares, Fabien J; Yusuf, Abdullahi A; Nicolson, Susan W; Pirk, Christian W W

    2017-05-01

    The influence of pheromones on insect physiology and behavior has been thoroughly reported for numerous aspects, such as attraction, gland development, aggregation, mate and kin recognition. Brood pheromone (BP) is released by honey bee larvae to indicate their protein requirements to the colony. Although BP is known to modulate pollen and protein consumption, which in turn can affect physiological and morphological parameters, such as hypopharyngeal gland (HPG) development and ovarian activation, few studies have focused on the effect of BP on nutritional balance. In this study, we exposed newly emerged worker bees for 14 d and found that BP exposure increased protein intake during the first few days, with a peak in consumption at day four following exposure. BP exposure decreased survival of caged honey bees, but did not affect either the size of the HPG acini or ovarian activation stage. The uncoupling of the BP releaser effect, facilitated by working under controlled conditions, and the presence of larvae as stimulating cues are discussed.

  17. LIMNOLOGICAL CONDITION AND ESTIMATION OF POTENTIAL FISH PRODUCTION OF KERINCI LAKE JAMBI, SUMATRA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samuel Samuel

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Kerinci Lake is a type of tectonic lakes located in a protected forest area of National Park of Kerinci Sebelat and a source of various fish species important for local people for their dayly food comsumption and income. However, few information is available on limnological condition and fish resources. Field research observing the limnological condition and estimating the potential fish production was conducted four times in April, June, August and October 2013. The research is aimed to describe the condition of limnology and estimate the potential fish production of the lake. Limnological aspect included the physico-chemical and biological parameters, namely: temperature, water transparency, depth, substrate, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, alkalinity, ammonia, nitrate, phosphate, total phosphorus, chlorophyll-a and trophic state. Potential fish production was calculated by using the biological parameter levels of chlorophyll-a. The results show that the euphotic layer of the lake waters was still feasible for fish life. Water condition of the bottom layer was less supportable for fish life due to low dissolved oxygen content. Trophic state index (TSI values, either measured by temporal and spatial ways, had TSI with an average of 61.75. From these index, the lake is classified as a lake at the high productivity level (eutrophic. Annual fish production was an average of 307 kg/ha/year. By taking account the average of fish production and the total area of lake of around 4,200 ha, the potential fish production of Kerinci Lake is estimated about ± 1,287 tons/year.

  18. A new Method for the Estimation of Initial Condition Uncertainty Structures in Mesoscale Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keller, J. D.; Bach, L.; Hense, A.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of fast growing error modes of a system is a key interest of ensemble data assimilation when assessing uncertainty in initial conditions. Over the last two decades three methods (and variations of these methods) have evolved for global numerical weather prediction models: ensemble Kalman filter, singular vectors and breeding of growing modes (or now ensemble transform). While the former incorporates a priori model error information and observation error estimates to determine ensemble initial conditions, the latter two techniques directly address the error structures associated with Lyapunov vectors. However, in global models these structures are mainly associated with transient global wave patterns. When assessing initial condition uncertainty in mesoscale limited area models, several problems regarding the aforementioned techniques arise: (a) additional sources of uncertainty on the smaller scales contribute to the error and (b) error structures from the global scale may quickly move through the model domain (depending on the size of the domain). To address the latter problem, perturbation structures from global models are often included in the mesoscale predictions as perturbed boundary conditions. However, the initial perturbations (when used) are often generated with a variant of an ensemble Kalman filter which does not necessarily focus on the large scale error patterns. In the framework of the European regional reanalysis project of the Hans-Ertel-Center for Weather Research we use a mesoscale model with an implemented nudging data assimilation scheme which does not support ensemble data assimilation at all. In preparation of an ensemble-based regional reanalysis and for the estimation of three-dimensional atmospheric covariance structures, we implemented a new method for the assessment of fast growing error modes for mesoscale limited area models. The so-called self-breeding is development based on the breeding of growing modes technique

  19. Effects of dairy manure storage conditions on the survival of E. coli O157:H7 and listeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dairy manure is regularly applied to crop fields as a solid or liquid to improve the soil nutrient status. However, pathogens may survive during manure storage and enter the environment during application. In this study, three storage practices were evaluated to understand the survival patterns of E...

  20. A METHOD TO ESTIMATE TEMPORAL INTERACTION IN A CONDITIONAL RANDOM FIELD BASED APPROACH FOR CROP RECOGNITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. M. A. Diaz

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a method to estimate the temporal interaction in a Conditional Random Field (CRF based approach for crop recognition from multitemporal remote sensing image sequences. This approach models the phenology of different crop types as a CRF. Interaction potentials are assumed to depend only on the class labels of an image site at two consecutive epochs. In the proposed method, the estimation of temporal interaction parameters is considered as an optimization problem, whose goal is to find the transition matrix that maximizes the CRF performance, upon a set of labelled data. The objective functions underlying the optimization procedure can be formulated in terms of different accuracy metrics, such as overall and average class accuracy per crop or phenological stages. To validate the proposed approach, experiments were carried out upon a dataset consisting of 12 co-registered LANDSAT images of a region in southeast of Brazil. Pattern Search was used as the optimization algorithm. The experimental results demonstrated that the proposed method was able to substantially outperform estimates related to joint or conditional class transition probabilities, which rely on training samples.

  1. Sufficient Condition for Estimation in Designing H∞ Filter-Based SLAM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nur Aqilah Othman

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Extended Kalman filter (EKF is often employed in determining the position of mobile robot and landmarks in simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM. Nonetheless, there are some disadvantages of using EKF, namely, the requirement of Gaussian distribution for the state and noises, as well as the fact that it requires the smallest possible initial state covariance. This has led researchers to find alternative ways to mitigate the aforementioned shortcomings. Therefore, this study is conducted to propose an alternative technique by implementing H∞ filter in SLAM instead of EKF. In implementing H∞ filter in SLAM, the parameters of the filter especially γ need to be properly defined to prevent finite escape time problem. Hence, this study proposes a sufficient condition for the estimation purposes. Two distinct cases of initial state covariance are analysed considering an indoor environment to ensure the best solution for SLAM problem exists along with considerations of process and measurement noises statistical behaviour. If the prescribed conditions are not satisfied, then the estimation would exhibit unbounded uncertainties and consequently results in erroneous inference about the robot and landmarks estimation. The simulation results have shown the reliability and consistency as suggested by the theoretical analysis and our previous findings.

  2. Estimated conditional score function for missing mechanism model with nonignorable nonresponse

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    CUI Xia; ZHOU Yong

    2017-01-01

    Missing data mechanism often depends on the values of the responses,which leads to nonignorable nonresponses.In such a situation,inference based on approaches that ignore the missing data mechanism could not be valid.A crucial step is to model the nature of missingness.We specify a parametric model for missingness mechanism,and then propose a conditional score function approach for estimation.This approach imputes the score function by taking the conditional expectation of the score function for the missing data given the available information.Inference procedure is then followed by replacing unknown terms with the related nonparametric estimators based on the observed data.The proposed score function does not suffer from the non-identifiability problem,and the proposed estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal.We also construct a confidence region for the parameter of interest using empirical likelihood method.Simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed inference procedure performs well in many settings.We apply the proposed method to a data set from research in a growth hormone and exercise intervention study.

  3. Estimating resource acquisition and at-sea body condition of a marine predator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schick, Robert S; New, Leslie F; Thomas, Len; Costa, Daniel P; Hindell, Mark A; McMahon, Clive R; Robinson, Patrick W; Simmons, Samantha E; Thums, Michele; Harwood, John; Clark, James S

    2013-01-01

    Body condition plays a fundamental role in many ecological and evolutionary processes at a variety of scales and across a broad range of animal taxa. An understanding of how body condition changes at fine spatial and temporal scales as a result of interaction with the environment provides necessary information about how animals acquire resources. However, comparatively little is known about intra- and interindividual variation of condition in marine systems. Where condition has been studied, changes typically are recorded at relatively coarse time-scales. By quantifying how fine-scale interaction with the environment influences condition, we can broaden our understanding of how animals acquire resources and allocate them to body stores. Here we used a hierarchical Bayesian state-space model to estimate the body condition as measured by the size of an animal's lipid store in two closely related species of marine predator that occupy different hemispheres: northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) and southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina). The observation model linked drift dives to lipid stores. The process model quantified daily changes in lipid stores as a function of the physiological condition of the seal (lipid:lean tissue ratio, departure lipid and departure mass), its foraging location, two measures of behaviour and environmental covariates. We found that physiological condition significantly impacted lipid gain at two time-scales – daily and at departure from the colony – that foraging location was significantly associated with lipid gain in both species of elephant seals and that long-term behavioural phase was associated with positive lipid gain in northern and southern elephant seals. In northern elephant seals, the occurrence of short-term behavioural states assumed to represent foraging were correlated with lipid gain. Lipid gain was a function of covariates in both species. Southern elephant seals performed fewer drift dives than

  4. Condition monitoring of steam generator by estimating the overall heat transfer coefficient

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furusawa, Hiroaki; Gofuku, Akio

    2013-01-01

    This study develops a technique for monitoring in on-line the state of the steam generator of the fast-breeder reactor (FBR) “Monju”. Because the FBR uses liquid sodium as coolant, it is necessary to handle liquid sodium with caution due to its chemical characteristics. The steam generator generates steam by the heat of secondary sodium coolant. The sodium-water reaction may happen if a pinhole or crack occurs at the thin metal tube wall that separates the secondary sodium coolant and water/steam. Therefore, it is very important to detect an anomaly of the wall of heat transfer tubes at an early stage. This study aims at developing an on-line condition monitoring technique of the steam generator by estimating overall heat transfer coefficient from process signals. This paper describes simplified mathematical models of superheater and evaporator to estimate the overall heat transfer coefficient and a technique to diagnose the state of the steam generator. The applicability of the technique is confirmed by several estimations using simulated process signals with artificial noises. The results of the estimations show that the developed technique can detect the occurrence of an anomaly. (author)

  5. Sugarcane yield estimation for climatic conditions in the state of Goiás

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordana Moura Caetano

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Models that estimate potential and depleted crop yield according to climatic variable enable the crop planning and production quantification for a specific region. Therefore, the objective of this study was to compare methods to sugarcane yield estimates grown in the climatic condition in the central part of Goiás, Brazil. So, Agroecological Zone Method (ZAE and the model proposed by Scarpari (S were correlated with real data of sugarcane yield from an experimental area, located in Santo Antônio de Goiás, state of Goiás, Brazil. Data yield refer to the crops of 2008/2009 (sugarcane plant, 2009/2010, 2010/2011 and 2011/2012 (ratoon sugarcane. Yield rates were calculated as a function of atmospheric water demand and water deficit in the area under study. Real and estimated yields were adjusted in function of productivity loss due to cutting stage of sugarcane, using an average reduction in productivity observed in the experimental area and the average reduction in the state of Goiás. The results indicated that the ZAE method, considering the water deficit, displayed good yield estimates for cane-plant (d > 0.90. Water deficit decreased the yield rates (r = -0.8636; α = 0.05 while the thermal sum increased that rate for all evaluated harvests (r > 0.68; α = 0.05.

  6. Manuscripts as Evidence for the use of Classics in Education, c. 800–1200: Estimating the Randomness of Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaakko Tahkokallio

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Are the surviving copies of schooltexts representative of what was popularly used in schools in the medieval period? In other words, was the survival of these manuscripts a random or selective process? To approach this question, this article presents a series of comparisons between the numbers of manuscripts of different schooltexts. It demonstrates that the most popular schooltexts all survive in very similar numbers from each century, and that the typical number of copies varies from one century to another. The easiest explanation for such a survival pattern is to assume that the texts were produced in equal numbers and passed through a relatively random filter of losses. The article seeks to test this intuitive explanation by using a simple probability mathematical experiment. In addition, the article analyses how the numbers of surviving manuscripts relate to entries in medieval book lists and medieval library catalogues. This examination supports the interpretation that the survival of schooltexts was a relatively random process. In addition, comparison between medieval book lists and extant manuscripts advocates caution in using the book lists as evidence for the popularity of texts in the medieval centuries. Even though the catalogues provide snapshots of specific historical situations, this paper concludes that the mass of extant books is more likely to give us a realistic picture of the contemporary popularity of texts.

  7. Influence of Sky Conditions on Estimation of Photosynthetic Photon Flux Density for Agricultural Ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamashita, M.; Yoshimura, M.

    2018-04-01

    Photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD: µmol m-2 s-1) is indispensable for plant physiology processes in photosynthesis. However, PPFD is seldom measured, so that PPFD has been estimated by using solar radiation (SR: W m-2) measured in world wide. In method using SR, there are two steps: first to estimate photosynthetically active radiation (PAR: W m-2) by the fraction of PAR to SR (PF) and second: to convert PAR to PPFD using the ratio of quanta to energy (Q / E: µmol J-1). PF and Q/E usually have been used as the constant values, however, recent studies point out that PF and Q / E would not be constants under various sky conditions. In this study, we use the numeric data of sky-conditions factors such cloud cover, sun appearance/hiding and relative sky brightness derived from whole-sky image processing and examine the influences of sky-conditions factors on PF and Q / E of global and diffuse PAR. Furthermore, we discuss our results by comparing with the existing methods.

  8. Estimation of active rockburst prevention effectiveness during longwall mining under disadvantageous geological and mining conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Łukasz Wojtecki

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Underground longwall mining of coal seams in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin is currently being carried out under increasingly difficult geological and mining conditions. Mining depth, dislocations and mining remnants are the main factors responsible for the most significant rockburst hazard, which can be minimized via the use of active and passive rockburst prevention. Active rockburst prevention in longwalls is usually based on blasting, in order to either destress local stress concentrations in the rock mass or to fracture the thick layers of strong roof rocks to prevent or minimize the impact of high energy tremors on excavations. The accurate estimation of active rockburst prevention effectiveness is particularly important when mining under disadvantageous geological and mining conditions, which are associated with high levels of this hazard. The efficiency of blasting applied for this purpose is typically evaluated from the seismic effect, which is calculated based on seismic monitoring data and the weight of the charged explosive. This method, as used previously in the Czech Republic, was adopted in the present study to analyze conditions occurring in a Polish hard coal mine in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin. Parameters of long hole destress blastings in roof rocks (torpedo blastings from the face of the assigned longwall in coal seam no. 507 were correct a success according to the seismic effect method and corresponded to observations made in situ. The analytical method presented enables the rapid estimation of destress blasting effectiveness and could also be useful when determining appropriate active rockburst prevention.

  9. A Bayesian localized conditional autoregressive model for estimating the health effects of air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duncan; Rushworth, Alastair; Sahu, Sujit K

    2014-06-01

    Estimation of the long-term health effects of air pollution is a challenging task, especially when modeling spatial small-area disease incidence data in an ecological study design. The challenge comes from the unobserved underlying spatial autocorrelation structure in these data, which is accounted for using random effects modeled by a globally smooth conditional autoregressive model. These smooth random effects confound the effects of air pollution, which are also globally smooth. To avoid this collinearity a Bayesian localized conditional autoregressive model is developed for the random effects. This localized model is flexible spatially, in the sense that it is not only able to model areas of spatial smoothness, but also it is able to capture step changes in the random effects surface. This methodological development allows us to improve the estimation performance of the covariate effects, compared to using traditional conditional auto-regressive models. These results are established using a simulation study, and are then illustrated with our motivating study on air pollution and respiratory ill health in Greater Glasgow, Scotland in 2011. The model shows substantial health effects of particulate matter air pollution and nitrogen dioxide, whose effects have been consistently attenuated by the currently available globally smooth models. © 2014, The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

  10. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  11. The Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin; Volume XII; A Multinomial Model for Estimating Ocean Survival from Salmonid Coded Wire-Tag Data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryding, Kristen E.; Skalski, John R.

    1999-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to illustrate the development of a stochastic model using coded wire-tag (CWT) release and age-at-return data, in order to regress first year ocean survival probabilities against coastal ocean conditions and climate covariates.

  12. Estimating survival rates of quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis veliger larvae under summer and autumn temperature regimes in residual water of trailered watercraft at Lake Mead, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wook Jin Choi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available On 6 January 2007, invasive quagga mussels [Dreissena rostriformis bugensis (Andrusov, 1897] were discovered in the Boulder Basin ofLake Mead, Nevada, a popular site for recreational boating in the southwestern United States. Recreational watercraft are considered aprimary vector for overland dispersal of quagga mussel veliger larvae between water bodies. Thus, effective decontamination of veligers inresidual water carried by trailered recreation boats is critical to controlling this species’ spread. The survival rate of quagga mussel veligerswas measured during exposure to environmental temperature conditions mimicking those experienced in the residual water of traileredvessels during warm summer and cooler autumn months in the semi-arid southwestern United States. Under warm summer conditions,quagga mussel veligers survived approximately five days while under cooler autumn conditions they survived 27 days. When tested underautumn temperature conditions veliger survival times increased with increased level of larval development. The results suggested a greaterlikelihood of veliger transport in the residual water of trailered watercraft during autumn months. The results indicated that presentlyrecommended vessel quarantine times to kill all externally attached juvenile and adult dreissenid mussels prior to launching in an uninfested water body should be increased to generate 100% veliger mortality in residual water unable to be fully drained from the internal areas of watercraft.

  13. Active Stat3 is required for survival of human squamous cell carcinoma cells in serum-free conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    DiGiovanni John

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Squamous cell carcinoma (SCC of the skin is the most aggressive form of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC, and is the single most commonly diagnosed cancer in the U.S., with over one million new cases reported each year. Recent studies have revealed an oncogenic role of activated signal transducer and activator of transcription 3 (Stat3 in many human tumors, especially in those of epithelial origin, including skin SCC. Stat3 is a mediator of numerous growth factor and cytokine signaling pathways, all of which activate it through phosphorylation of tyrosine 705. Results To further address the role of Stat3 in skin SCC tumorigenesis, we have analyzed a panel of human skin-derived cell lines ranging from normal human epidermal keratinocytes (NHEK, to non-tumorigenic transformed skin cells (HaCaT, to highly tumorigenic cells (SRB1-m7 and SRB12-p9 and observed a positive correlation between Stat3 phosphorylation and SCC malignancy. We next determined the role of Stat3 activity in cell proliferation and viability under serum-free culture conditions. This was accomplished by suppressing Stat3 activity in the SRB12-p9 cells through stable expression of a dominant negative acting form of Stat3β, which contains a tyrosine 705 to phenylalanine mutation (S3DN. The S3DN cells behaved similar to parental SRB12-p9 cells when cultured in optimal growth conditions, in the presence of 10% fetal calf serum. However, unlike the SRB12-p9 cells, S3DN cells underwent apoptotic cell death when cultured in serum-free medium (SFM. This was evidenced by multiple criteria, including accumulation of sub-G1 particles, induced PARP cleavage, and acquisition of the characteristic morphological changes associated with apoptosis. Conclusion This study provides direct evidence for a role for Stat3 in maintaining cell survival in the conditions of exogenous growth factor deprivation produced by culture in SFM. We also propose that delivery of the S3DN gene or

  14. Measurement of total risk of spontaneous abortion: the virtue of conditional risk estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Modvig, J; Schmidt, L; Damsgaard, M T

    1990-01-01

    The concepts, methods, and problems of measuring spontaneous abortion risk are reviewed. The problems touched on include the process of pregnancy verification, the changes in risk by gestational age and maternal age, and the presence of induced abortions. Methods used in studies of spontaneous...... abortion risk include biochemical assays as well as life table technique, although the latter appears in two different forms. The consequences of using either of these are discussed. It is concluded that no study design so far is appropriate for measuring the total risk of spontaneous abortion from early...... conception to the end of the 27th week. It is proposed that pregnancy may be considered to consist of two or three specific periods and that different study designs should concentrate on measuring the conditional risk within each period. A careful estimate using this principle leads to an estimate of total...

  15. Predictive Uncertainty Estimation in Water Demand Forecasting Using the Model Conditional Processor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amos O. Anele

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In a previous paper, a number of potential models for short-term water demand (STWD prediction have been analysed to find the ones with the best fit. The results obtained in Anele et al. (2017 showed that hybrid models may be considered as the accurate and appropriate forecasting models for STWD prediction. However, such best single valued forecast does not guarantee reliable and robust decisions, which can be properly obtained via model uncertainty processors (MUPs. MUPs provide an estimate of the full predictive densities and not only the single valued expected prediction. Amongst other MUPs, the purpose of this paper is to use the multi-variate version of the model conditional processor (MCP, proposed by Todini (2008, to demonstrate how the estimation of the predictive probability conditional to a number of relatively good predictive models may improve our knowledge, thus reducing the predictive uncertainty (PU when forecasting into the unknown future. Through the MCP approach, the probability distribution of the future water demand can be assessed depending on the forecast provided by one or more deterministic forecasting models. Based on an average weekly data of 168 h, the probability density of the future demand is built conditional on three models’ predictions, namely the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA, feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN and hybrid model (i.e., combined forecast from ARMA and FFBP-NN. The results obtained show that MCP may be effectively used for real-time STWD prediction since it brings out the PU connected to its forecast, and such information could help water utilities estimate the risk connected to a decision.

  16. Improvement of Probiotic Survival in Fruit juice and under Gastrointestinal conditions using Pectin-Nanochitin-Nanolignocellulose as a Novel Prebiotic Gastrointestinal-Resistant Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alireza Chackoshian Khorasani

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Objective: Increasing survivability of probiotics in low pH juices and in gastrointestinal conditions is important for probiotic food industry. Nanofibers can reinforce the structure of entrapment matrices protecting probiotics in harsh conditions. This study investigated pectin-based bionanocomposites improved with nanochitin, nanolignocellulose and bacterial nanocellulose to introduce a prebiotic gastrointestinal-resistant matrix for enhancing the survival of Bacillus coagulans as a probiotic.Material and Methods: The bionanocomposites with various compositions were designed using mixture design method. These were fabricated based on cross-linking of calcium ions with pectin for entrapment of Bacillus coagulans. The survivability of probiotic was evaluated at 4°C or 25°C over a 5-week storage in peach juice and under simulated gastrointestinal conditions.Results and Conclusion: The prebiotic score of the pectin-nanochitin-nanolignocellulose (50:25:25% w w-1 was determined as 1.36. The survivability of Bacillus coagulans entrapped within the pectin-nanochitin-nanolignocellulose matrix was ~65% under gastrointestinal treatment. The surface structure of the matrix was relatively smooth coherent, compact and wrinkled due to the three-dimensional arrangement of the nanofibers of chitin and lignocellulose incorporated within pectin. The highest survivability of the entrapped bacteria was ~68% compared to the survivability of the free cell (~53% at the end of 5-week storage period. After 21 day storage in the juice, the survivability of the entrapped bacteria treated under sequential digestion was ~58% as compared to that of the free cell (~43%. The present findings proposed a promising prebiotic matrix to protect probiotics in low pH fruit juice and the gastrointestinal tract.Conflict of interest: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

  17. First Direct Evidence for Natal Wintering Ground Fidelity and Estimate of Juvenile Survival in the New Zealand Southern Right Whale Eubalaena australis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carroll, E L; Fewster, R M; Childerhouse, S J; Patenaude, N J; Boren, L; Baker, C S

    2016-01-01

    Juvenile survival and recruitment can be more sensitive to environmental, ecological and anthropogenic factors than adult survival, influencing population-level processes like recruitment and growth rate in long-lived, iteroparous species such as southern right whales. Conventionally, Southern right whales are individually identified using callosity patterns, which do not stabilise until 6-12 months, by which time the whale has left its natal wintering grounds. Here we use DNA profiling of skin biopsy samples to identify individual Southern right whales from year of birth and document their return to the species' primary wintering ground in New Zealand waters, the Subantarctic Auckland Islands. We find evidence of natal fidelity to the New Zealand wintering ground by the recapture of 15 of 57 whales, first sampled in year of birth and available for subsequent recapture, during winter surveys to the Auckland Islands in 1995-1998 and 2006-2009. Four individuals were recaptured at the ages of 9 to 11, including two females first sampled as calves in 1998 and subsequently resampled as cows with calves in 2007. Using these capture-recapture records of known-age individuals, we estimate changes in survival with age using Cormack-Jolly-Seber models. Survival is modelled using discrete age classes and as a continuous function of age. Using a bootstrap method to account for uncertainty in model selection and fitting, we provide the first direct estimate of juvenile survival for this population. Our analyses indicate a high annual apparent survival for juveniles at between 0.87 (standard error (SE) 0.17, to age 1) and 0.95 (SE 0.05: ages 2-8). Individual identification by DNA profiling is an effective method for long-term demographic and genetic monitoring, particularly in animals that change identifiable features as they develop or experience tag loss over time.

  18. Robust estimates of environmental effects on population vital rates: an integrated capture–recapture model of seasonal brook trout growth, survival and movement in a stream network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Letcher, Benjamin H.; Schueller, Paul; Bassar, Ronald D.; Nislow, Keith H.; Coombs, Jason A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Morrissey, Michael; Sigourney, Douglas B.; Whiteley, Andrew R.; O'Donnell, Matthew J.; Dubreuil, Todd L.

    2015-01-01

    Modelling the effects of environmental change on populations is a key challenge for ecologists, particularly as the pace of change increases. Currently, modelling efforts are limited by difficulties in establishing robust relationships between environmental drivers and population responses.We developed an integrated capture–recapture state-space model to estimate the effects of two key environmental drivers (stream flow and temperature) on demographic rates (body growth, movement and survival) using a long-term (11 years), high-resolution (individually tagged, sampled seasonally) data set of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) from four sites in a stream network. Our integrated model provides an effective context within which to estimate environmental driver effects because it takes full advantage of data by estimating (latent) state values for missing observations, because it propagates uncertainty among model components and because it accounts for the major demographic rates and interactions that contribute to annual survival.We found that stream flow and temperature had strong effects on brook trout demography. Some effects, such as reduction in survival associated with low stream flow and high temperature during the summer season, were consistent across sites and age classes, suggesting that they may serve as robust indicators of vulnerability to environmental change. Other survival effects varied across ages, sites and seasons, indicating that flow and temperature may not be the primary drivers of survival in those cases. Flow and temperature also affected body growth rates; these responses were consistent across sites but differed dramatically between age classes and seasons. Finally, we found that tributary and mainstem sites responded differently to variation in flow and temperature.Annual survival (combination of survival and body growth across seasons) was insensitive to body growth and was most sensitive to flow (positive) and temperature (negative

  19. The Influence of Tag Presence on the Mortality of Juvenile Chinook Salmon Exposed to Simulated Hydroturbine Passage: Implications for Survival Estimates and Management of Hydroelectric Facilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carlson, Thomas J.; Brown, Richard S.; Stephenson, John R.; Pflugrath, Brett D.; Colotelo, Alison HA; Gingerich, Andrew J.; Benjamin, Piper L.; Langeslay, Mike; Ahmann, Martin L.; Johnson, Robert L.; Skalski, John R.; Seaburg, Adam; Townsend, Richard L.

    2012-05-01

    Each year, millions of fish have telemetry tags (acoustic, radio, inductive) surgically implanted to assess their passage and survival through hydropower facilities. One route of passage of particular concern is through hydro turbines, in which fish may be exposed to a range of potential injuries, including barotraumas from rapid decompression. The change in pressure from acclimation to exposure (nadir) has been found to be an important factor in predicting the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon undergoing rapid decompression associated with simulated turbine passage. The presence of telemetry tags has also been shown to influence the likelihood of injury and mortality for juvenile Chinook salmon. This research investigated the likelihood of mortality and injury for juvenile Chinook salmon carrying telemetry tags and exposed to a range of simulated turbine passage. Several factors were examined as predictors of mortal injury for fish undergoing rapid decompression, and the ratio of pressure change and tag burden were determined to be the most predictive factors. As the ratio of pressure change and tag burden increase, the likelihood of mortal injury also increases. The results of this study suggest that previous survival estimates of juvenile Chinook salmon passing through hydro turbines may have been biased due to the presence of telemetry tags, and this has direct implications to the management of hydroelectric facilities. Realistic examples indicate how the bias in turbine passage survival estimates could be 20% or higher, depending on the mass of the implanted tags and the ratio of acclimation to exposure pressures. Bias would increase as the tag burden and pressure ratio increase, and have direct implications on survival estimates. It is recommended that future survival studies use the smallest telemetry tags possible to minimize the potential bias that may be associated with carrying the tag.

  20. Aircraft nonlinear stability analysis and multidimensional stability region estimation under icing conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liang QU

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Icing is one of the crucial factors that could pose great threat to flight safety, and thus research on stability and stability region of aircraft safety under icing conditions is significant for control and flight. Nonlinear dynamical equations and models of aerodynamic coefficients of an aircraft are set up in this paper to study the stability and stability region of the aircraft under an icing condition. Firstly, the equilibrium points of the iced aircraft system are calculated and analyzed based on the theory of differential equation stability. Secondly, according to the correlation theory about equilibrium points and the stability region, this paper estimates the multidimensional stability region of the aircraft, based on which the stability regions before and after icing are compared. Finally, the results are confirmed by the time history analysis. The results can give a reference for stability analysis and envelope protection of the nonlinear system of an iced aircraft.

  1. Robust estimation of the expected survival probabilities from high-dimensional Cox models with biomarker-by-treatment interactions in randomized clinical trials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nils Ternès

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Thanks to the advances in genomics and targeted treatments, more and more prediction models based on biomarkers are being developed to predict potential benefit from treatments in a randomized clinical trial. Despite the methodological framework for the development and validation of prediction models in a high-dimensional setting is getting more and more established, no clear guidance exists yet on how to estimate expected survival probabilities in a penalized model with biomarker-by-treatment interactions. Methods Based on a parsimonious biomarker selection in a penalized high-dimensional Cox model (lasso or adaptive lasso, we propose a unified framework to: estimate internally the predictive accuracy metrics of the developed model (using double cross-validation; estimate the individual survival probabilities at a given timepoint; construct confidence intervals thereof (analytical or bootstrap; and visualize them graphically (pointwise or smoothed with spline. We compared these strategies through a simulation study covering scenarios with or without biomarker effects. We applied the strategies to a large randomized phase III clinical trial that evaluated the effect of adding trastuzumab to chemotherapy in 1574 early breast cancer patients, for which the expression of 462 genes was measured. Results In our simulations, penalized regression models using the adaptive lasso estimated the survival probability of new patients with low bias and standard error; bootstrapped confidence intervals had empirical coverage probability close to the nominal level across very different scenarios. The double cross-validation performed on the training data set closely mimicked the predictive accuracy of the selected models in external validation data. We also propose a useful visual representation of the expected survival probabilities using splines. In the breast cancer trial, the adaptive lasso penalty selected a prediction model with 4

  2. A field evaluation of an external and neutrally buoyant acoustic transmitter for juvenile salmon: implications for estimating hydroturbine passage survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard S Brown

    Full Text Available Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to

  3. A field evaluation of an external and neutrally buoyant acoustic transmitter for juvenile salmon: implications for estimating hydroturbine passage survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Richard S; Deng, Z Daniel; Cook, Katrina V; Pflugrath, Brett D; Li, Xinya; Fu, Tao; Martinez, Jayson J; Li, Huidong; Trumbo, Bradly A; Ahmann, Martin L; Seaburg, Adam G

    2013-01-01

    Turbine-passed fish are exposed to rapid decreases in pressure which can cause barotrauma. The presence of an implanted telemetry tag increases the likelihood of injury or death from exposure to pressure changes, thus potentially biasing studies evaluating survival of turbine-passed fish. Therefore, a neutrally buoyant externally attached tag was developed to eliminate this bias in turbine passage studies. This new tag was designed not to add excess mass in water or take up space in the coelom, having an effective tag burden of zero with the goal of reducing pressure related biases to turbine survival studies. To determine if this new tag affects fish performance or susceptibility to predation, it was evaluated in the field relative to internally implanted acoustic transmitters (JSATS; Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System) used widely for survival studies of juvenile salmonids. Survival and travel time through the study reach was compared between fish with either tag type in an area of high predation in the Snake and Columbia rivers, Washington. An additional group of fish affixed with neutrally-buoyant dummy external tags were implanted with passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags and recovered further downstream to assess external tag retention and injury. There were no significant differences in survival to the first detection site, 12 river kilometers (rkm) downstream of release. Travel times were also similar between groups. Conversely, externally-tagged fish had reduced survival (or elevated tag loss) to the second detection site, 65 rkm downstream. In addition, the retention study revealed that tag loss was first observed in fish recaptured approximately 9 days after release. Results suggest that this new tag may be viable for short term (<8 days) single-dam turbine-passage studies and under these situations, may alleviate the turbine passage-related bias encountered when using internal tags, however further research is needed to confirm this.

  4. Background fluorescence estimation and vesicle segmentation in live cell imaging with conditional random fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pécot, Thierry; Bouthemy, Patrick; Boulanger, Jérôme; Chessel, Anatole; Bardin, Sabine; Salamero, Jean; Kervrann, Charles

    2015-02-01

    Image analysis applied to fluorescence live cell microscopy has become a key tool in molecular biology since it enables to characterize biological processes in space and time at the subcellular level. In fluorescence microscopy imaging, the moving tagged structures of interest, such as vesicles, appear as bright spots over a static or nonstatic background. In this paper, we consider the problem of vesicle segmentation and time-varying background estimation at the cellular scale. The main idea is to formulate the joint segmentation-estimation problem in the general conditional random field framework. Furthermore, segmentation of vesicles and background estimation are alternatively performed by energy minimization using a min cut-max flow algorithm. The proposed approach relies on a detection measure computed from intensity contrasts between neighboring blocks in fluorescence microscopy images. This approach permits analysis of either 2D + time or 3D + time data. We demonstrate the performance of the so-called C-CRAFT through an experimental comparison with the state-of-the-art methods in fluorescence video-microscopy. We also use this method to characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of Rab6 transport carriers at the cell periphery for two different specific adhesion geometries.

  5. Estimating total economic merit for the Portuguese Holstein cattle population under new economic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joana B.M. Almeida

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to develop a total economic merit index that identifies more profitable animals using Portugal as a case study to illustrate the recent economic changes in milk production. Economic values were estimated following future global prices and EU policy, and taking into consideration the priorities of the Portuguese dairy sector. Economic values were derived using an objective system analysis with a positive approach, that involved the comparison of several alternatives, using real technical and economic data from national dairy farms. The estimated relative economic values revealed a high importance of production traits, low for morphological traits and a value of zero for somatic cell score. According to several future market expectations, three scenarios for milk production were defined: a realistic, a pessimistic and an optimistic setting, each with projected future economic values. Responses to selection and efficiency of selection of the indices were compared to a fourth scenario that represents the current selection situation in Portugal, based on individual estimated breeding values for milk yield. Although profit resulting from sale of milk per average lactation in the optimistic scenario was higher than in the realistic scenario, the volatility of future economic conditions and uncertainty about the future milk pricing system should be considered. Due to this market instability, genetic improvement programs require new definitions of profit functions for the near future. Effective genetic progress direction must be verified so that total economic merit formulae can be adjusted and selection criteria redirected to the newly defined target goals.

  6. PKA spectral effects on subcascade structures and free defect survival ratio as estimated by cascade-annealing computer simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Muroga, Takeo

    1990-01-01

    The free defect survival ratio is calculated by ''cascade-annealing'' computer simulation using the MARLOWE and modified DAIQUIRI codes in various cases of Primary Knock-on Atom (PKA) spectra. The number of subcascades is calculated by ''cut-off'' calculation using MARLOWE. The adequacy of these methods is checked by comparing the results with experiments (surface segregation measurements and Transmission Electron Microscope cascade defect observations). The correlation using the weighted average recoil energy as a parameter shows that the saturation of the free defect survival ratio at high PKA energies has a close relation to the cascade splitting into subcascades. (author)

  7. Effects of feeding frequency on growth, survival rate and body composition in sea bass (Lates calcarifer) juveniles fed a commercial diet under laboratory condition

    OpenAIRE

    Erlinda S. Ganzon-Naret

    2013-01-01

    A 60 day feeding trial was conducted to investigate the effects of different feeding frequencies on the growth, survival rate and body composition of sea bass (Lates calcarifer) juveniles fed commercial diet, reared under laboratory condition. The average initial weight of fish was 4.59 g and its initial total length of 7.11 cm was determined for the conditions factors. Ten fish were stocked in each 12 - 100 L conical fiberglass tanks filled with 90 L seawater at three replicates ...

  8. Improving real-time estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation using rain gauge data via conditional bias-penalized optimal estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Dong-Jun; Siddique, Ridwan; Zhang, Yu; Kim, Dongsoo

    2014-11-01

    A new technique for gauge-only precipitation analysis for improved estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation is described and evaluated. The technique is based on a novel extension of classical optimal linear estimation theory in which, in addition to error variance, Type-II conditional bias (CB) is explicitly minimized. When cast in the form of well-known kriging, the methodology yields a new kriging estimator, referred to as CB-penalized kriging (CBPK). CBPK, however, tends to yield negative estimates in areas of no or light precipitation. To address this, an extension of CBPK, referred to herein as extended conditional bias penalized kriging (ECBPK), has been developed which combines the CBPK estimate with a trivial estimate of zero precipitation. To evaluate ECBPK, we carried out real-world and synthetic experiments in which ECBPK and the gauge-only precipitation analysis procedure used in the NWS's Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE) were compared for estimation of point precipitation and mean areal precipitation (MAP), respectively. The results indicate that ECBPK improves hourly gauge-only estimation of heavy-to-extreme precipitation significantly. The improvement is particularly large for estimation of MAP for a range of combinations of basin size and rain gauge network density. This paper describes the technique, summarizes the results and shares ideas for future research.

  9. Economic evaluation of nivolumab for the treatment of second-line advanced squamous NSCLC in Canada: a comparison of modeling approaches to estimate and extrapolate survival outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goeree, Ron; Villeneuve, Julie; Goeree, Jeff; Penrod, John R; Orsini, Lucinda; Tahami Monfared, Amir Abbas

    2016-06-01

    Background Lung cancer is the most common type of cancer in the world and is associated with significant mortality. Nivolumab demonstrated statistically significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) for patients with advanced squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who were previously treated. The cost-effectiveness of nivolumab has not been assessed in Canada. A contentious component of projecting long-term cost and outcomes in cancer relates to the modeling approach adopted, with the two most common approaches being partitioned survival (PS) and Markov models. The objectives of this analysis were to estimate the cost-utility of nivolumab and to compare the results using these alternative modeling approaches. Methods Both PS and Markov models were developed using docetaxel and erlotinib as comparators. A three-health state model was used consisting of progression-free, progressed disease, and death. Disease progression and time to progression were estimated by identifying best-fitting survival curves from the clinical trial data for PFS and OS. Expected costs and health outcomes were calculated by combining health-state occupancy with medical resource use and quality-of-life assigned to each of the three health states. The health outcomes included in the model were survival and quality-adjusted-life-years (QALYs). Results Nivolumab was found to have the highest expected per-patient cost, but also improved per-patient life years (LYs) and QALYs. Nivolumab cost an additional $151,560 and $140,601 per QALY gained compared to docetaxel and erlotinib, respectively, using a PS model approach. The cost-utility estimates using a Markov model were very similar ($152,229 and $141,838, respectively, per QALY gained). Conclusions Nivolumab was found to involve a trade-off between improved patient survival and QALYs, and increased cost. It was found that the use of a PS or Markov model produced very similar estimates of expected cost

  10. Relationships between mastitis and functional longevity in Danish Black and White dairy cattle estimated using survival analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neerhof, H.J.; Madsen, P.; Ducrucq, V.; Vollema, A.R.; Jensen, I.; Korsgaard, I.R.

    2000-01-01

    The relationship between mastitis and functional longevity was assessed with survival analysis on data of Danish Black and White dairy cows. Different methods of including the effect of mastitis treatment on the culling decision by a farmer in the model were compared. The model in which mastitis

  11. Estimation of total genetic effects for survival time in crossbred laying hens showing cannibalism, using pedigree or genomic information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinker, T.; Raymond, B.; Bijma, P.; Vereijken, A.; Ellen, E.D.

    2017-01-01

    Mortality of laying hens due to cannibalism is a major problem in the egg-laying industry. Survival depends on two genetic effects: the direct genetic effect of the individual itself (DGE) and the indirect genetic effects of its group mates (IGE). For hens housed in sire-family groups, DGE and

  12. Physical condition and stress levels during early development reflect feeding rates and predict pre- and post-fledging survival in a nearshore seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Juliet S; O'Reilly, Kathleen M; Jodice, Patrick G R

    2016-01-01

    The effects of acute environmental stressors on reproduction in wildlife are often difficult to measure because of the labour and disturbance involved in collecting accurate reproductive data. Stress hormones represent a promising option for assessing the effects of environmental perturbations on altricial young; however, it is necessary first to establish how stress levels are affected by environmental conditions during development and whether elevated stress results in reduced survival and recruitment rates. In birds, the stress hormone corticosterone is deposited in feathers during the entire period of feather growth, making it an integrated measure of background stress levels during development. We tested the utility of feather corticosterone levels in 3- to 4-week-old nestling brown pelicans ( Pelecanus occidentalis ) for predicting survival rates at both the individual and colony levels. We also assessed the relationship of feather corticosterone to nestling body condition and rates of energy delivery to nestlings. Chicks with higher body condition and lower corticosterone levels were more likely to fledge and to be resighted after fledging, whereas those with lower body condition and higher corticosterone levels were less likely to fledge or be resighted after fledging. Feather corticosterone was also associated with intracolony differences in survival between ground and elevated nest sites. Colony-wide, mean feather corticosterone predicted nest productivity, chick survival and post-fledging dispersal more effectively than did body condition, although these relationships were strongest before fledglings dispersed away from the colony. Both reproductive success and nestling corticosterone were strongly related to nutritional conditions, particularly meal delivery rates. We conclude that feather corticosterone is a powerful predictor of reproductive success and could provide a useful metric for rapidly assessing the effects of changes in environmental

  13. Estimating the Impact of Workplace Bullying: Humanistic and Economic Burden among Workers with Chronic Medical Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fattori

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Background. Although the prevalence of work-limiting diseases is increasing, the interplay between occupational exposures and chronic medical conditions remains largely uncharacterized. Research has shown the detrimental effects of workplace bullying but very little is known about the humanistic and productivity cost in victims with chronic illnesses. We sought to assess work productivity losses and health disutility associated with bullying among subjects with chronic medical conditions. Methods. Participants (N=1717 with chronic diseases answered a self-administered survey including sociodemographic and clinical data, workplace bullying experience, the SF-12 questionnaire, and the Work Productivity Activity Impairment questionnaire. Results. The prevalence of significant impairment was higher among victims of workplace bullying as compared to nonvictims (SF-12 PCS: 55.5% versus 67.9%, p<0.01; SF-12 MCS: 59.4% versus 74.3%, p<0.01. The adjusted marginal overall productivity cost of workplace bullying ranged from 13.9% to 17.4%, corresponding to Italian Purchase Power Parity (PPP 2010 US$ 4182–5236 yearly. Association estimates were independent and not moderated by concurrent medical conditions. Conclusions. Our findings demonstrate that the burden on workers’ quality of life and productivity associated with workplace bullying is substantial. This study provides key data to inform policy-making and prioritize occupational health interventions.

  14. 'TEWI' concept for estimation of the global warming from the refrigerating and air conditioning systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciconkov, Risto

    2002-01-01

    The most applied CFC refrigerants and their HFC alternatives. values of ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) and GWP (Global Warming Potential) of the most used refrigerants. natural working fluids and their properties. Montreal Protocol and Kyoto Protocol, illogical relations between them concerning to the HFC fluids. Confusion and polemics on the international level about the appliance of HFCs which, by the Kyoto Protocol, are liable to reduction. Introduction of the TEWI concept as a method for estimating the overall influence of refrigerating and air conditioning systems on the greenhouse effect: the direct emission (refrigerant leakage in the atmosphere) and indirect emission as a result of the electrical energy consumption. A demonstration of the TEWI concept on the concrete example in several variants. A discussion about the appliance of the TEWI concept. Meaning of the energy efficiency of the refrigerating systems (indirect CO 2 emission). One of the main measures: prevention of refrigerant leakage (direct CO 2 emission). A need of permanent education and training courses of the people who work on refrigerating and air conditioning systems. A necessity for constitution of an expert body in the country, preparation of a strategy to lay obligations on the new changes of the Kyoto Protocol and news on the world market. Introduction of country regulations, certification of the companies and people involved in refrigeration and air conditioning. (Author)

  15. Estimating the Impact of Workplace Bullying: Humanistic and Economic Burden among Workers with Chronic Medical Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattori, A; Neri, L; Aguglia, E; Bellomo, A; Bisogno, A; Camerino, D; Carpiniello, B; Cassin, A; Costa, G; De Fazio, P; Di Sciascio, G; Favaretto, G; Fraticelli, C; Giannelli, R; Leone, S; Maniscalco, T; Marchesi, C; Mauri, M; Mencacci, C; Polselli, G; Quartesan, R; Risso, F; Sciaretta, A; Vaggi, M; Vender, S; Viora, U

    2015-01-01

    Although the prevalence of work-limiting diseases is increasing, the interplay between occupational exposures and chronic medical conditions remains largely uncharacterized. Research has shown the detrimental effects of workplace bullying but very little is known about the humanistic and productivity cost in victims with chronic illnesses. We sought to assess work productivity losses and health disutility associated with bullying among subjects with chronic medical conditions. Participants (N = 1717) with chronic diseases answered a self-administered survey including sociodemographic and clinical data, workplace bullying experience, the SF-12 questionnaire, and the Work Productivity Activity Impairment questionnaire. The prevalence of significant impairment was higher among victims of workplace bullying as compared to nonvictims (SF-12 PCS: 55.5% versus 67.9%, p bullying ranged from 13.9% to 17.4%, corresponding to Italian Purchase Power Parity (PPP) 2010 US$ 4182-5236 yearly. Association estimates were independent and not moderated by concurrent medical conditions. Our findings demonstrate that the burden on workers' quality of life and productivity associated with workplace bullying is substantial. This study provides key data to inform policy-making and prioritize occupational health interventions.

  16. Estimating the Impact of Workplace Bullying: Humanistic and Economic Burden among Workers with Chronic Medical Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fattori, A.; Neri, L.; Aguglia, E.; Bellomo, A.; Bisogno, A.; Camerino, D.; Carpiniello, B.; Cassin, A.; Costa, G.; De Fazio, P.; Di Sciascio, G.; Favaretto, G.; Fraticelli, C.; Giannelli, R.; Leone, S.; Maniscalco, T.; Marchesi, C.; Mauri, M.; Mencacci, C.; Polselli, G.; Quartesan, R.; Risso, F.; Sciaretta, A.; Vaggi, M.; Vender, S.; Viora, U.

    2015-01-01

    Background. Although the prevalence of work-limiting diseases is increasing, the interplay between occupational exposures and chronic medical conditions remains largely uncharacterized. Research has shown the detrimental effects of workplace bullying but very little is known about the humanistic and productivity cost in victims with chronic illnesses. We sought to assess work productivity losses and health disutility associated with bullying among subjects with chronic medical conditions. Methods. Participants (N = 1717) with chronic diseases answered a self-administered survey including sociodemographic and clinical data, workplace bullying experience, the SF-12 questionnaire, and the Work Productivity Activity Impairment questionnaire. Results. The prevalence of significant impairment was higher among victims of workplace bullying as compared to nonvictims (SF-12 PCS: 55.5% versus 67.9%, p bullying ranged from 13.9% to 17.4%, corresponding to Italian Purchase Power Parity (PPP) 2010 US$ 4182–5236 yearly. Association estimates were independent and not moderated by concurrent medical conditions. Conclusions. Our findings demonstrate that the burden on workers' quality of life and productivity associated with workplace bullying is substantial. This study provides key data to inform policy-making and prioritize occupational health interventions. PMID:26557692

  17. Failure Mode Estimation of Wolsong Unit 1 Containment Building with respect to Severe Accident Condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hahm, Dae Gi; Choi, In Kil

    2009-01-01

    The containment buildings in a nuclear power plant (NPP) are final barriers against the exposure of harmful radiation materials at severe accident condition. Since the accident at Three Mile Island nuclear plant in 1979, it has become necessary to evaluate the internal pressure capacity of the containment buildings for the assessment of the safety of nuclear power plants. According to this necessity, many researchers including Yonezawa et al. and Hu and Lin analyzed the ultimate capacity of prestressed concrete containments subjected to internal pressure which can be occurred at sever accident condition. Especially in Wolsong nuclear power plant, the Unit 1 containment structures were constructed in the late 1970 to early 1980, so that the end of its service life will be reached in near future. Since that the complete decommission and reconstruction of the NPP may cause a huge expenses, an extension of the service time can be a cost-effective alternative. To extend the service time of NPP, an overall safety evaluation of the containment building under severe accident condition should be performed. In this study, we assessed the pressure capacity of Wolsong Unit 1 containment building under severe accident, and estimated the responses at all of the probable critical areas. Based on those results, we found the significant failure modes of Wolsong Unit 1 containment building with respect to the severe accident condition. On the other hand, for the aged NPP, the degradation of their structural performance must also be explained in the procedure of the internal pressure capacity evaluation. Therefore, in this study, we performed a parametric study on the degradation effects and evaluated the internal pressure capacity of Wolsong Unit 1 containment building with considering aging and degradation effects

  18. A statistical methodology for the estimation of extreme wave conditions for offshore renewable applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Kalogeri, Christina; Galanis, George

    2015-01-01

    and post-process outputs from a high resolution numerical wave modeling system for extreme wave estimation based on the significant wave height. This approach is demonstrated through the data analysis at a relatively deep water site, FINO 1, as well as a relatively shallow water area, coastal site Horns...... as a characteristic index of extreme wave conditions. The results from the proposed methodology seem to be in a good agreement with the measurements at both the relatively deep, open water and the shallow, coastal water sites, providing a potentially useful tool for offshore renewable energy applications. © 2015...... Rev, which is located in the North Sea, west of Denmark. The post-processing targets at correcting the modeled time series of the significant wave height, in order to match the statistics of the corresponding measurements, including not only the conventional parameters such as the mean and standard...

  19. Estimation of Operating Condition of Appliances Using Circuit Current Data on Electric Distribution Boards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iwafune, Yumiko; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Yagita, Yoshie

    The Energy management systems (EMS) on demand sides are expected as a method to enhance the capability of supply and demand balancing of a power system under the anticipated penetration of renewable energy generation such as Photovoltaics (PV). Elucidation of energy consumption structure in a building is one of important elements for realization of EMS and contributes to the extraction of potential energy saving. In this paper, we propose the estimation method of operating condition of household appliances using circuit current data on an electric distribution board. Circuit current data are broken down by their shape using a self-organization map method and aggregated by appliance based on customers' information of appliance possessed. Proposed method is verified using residential energy consumption measurement survey data.

  20. Estimating steady-state evaporation rates from bare soils under conditions of high water table

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ripple, C.D.; Rubin, J.; Van Hylckama, T. E. A.

    1970-01-01

    A procedure that combines meteorological and soil equations of water transfer makes it possible to estimate approximately the steady-state evaporation from bare soils under conditions of high water table. Field data required include soil-water retention curves, water table depth and a record of air temperature, air humidity and wind velocity at one elevation. The procedure takes into account the relevant atmospheric factors and the soil's capability to conduct 'water in liquid and vapor forms. It neglects the effects of thermal transfer (except in the vapor case) and of salt accumulation. Homogeneous as well as layered soils can be treated. Results obtained with the method demonstrate how the soil evaporation rates·depend on potential evaporation, water table depth, vapor transfer and certain soil parameters.

  1. A new method for estimating UV fluxes at ground level in cloud-free conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandji Nyamsi, William; Pitkänen, Mikko R. A.; Aoun, Youva; Blanc, Philippe; Heikkilä, Anu; Lakkala, Kaisa; Bernhard, Germar; Koskela, Tapani; Lindfors, Anders V.; Arola, Antti; Wald, Lucien

    2017-12-01

    A new method has been developed to estimate the global and direct solar irradiance in the UV-A and UV-B at ground level in cloud-free conditions. It is based on a resampling technique applied to the results of the k-distribution method and the correlated-k approximation of Kato et al. (1999) over the UV band. Its inputs are the aerosol properties and total column ozone that are produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The estimates from this new method have been compared to instantaneous measurements of global UV irradiances made in cloud-free conditions at five stations at high latitudes in various climates. For the UV-A irradiance, the bias ranges between -0.8 W m-2 (-3 % of the mean of all data) and -0.2 W m-2 (-1 %). The root mean square error (RMSE) ranges from 1.1 W m-2 (6 %) to 1.9 W m-2 (9 %). The coefficient of determination R2 is greater than 0.98. The bias for UV-B is between -0.04 W m-2 (-4 %) and 0.08 W m-2 (+13 %) and the RMSE is 0.1 W m-2 (between 12 and 18 %). R2 ranges between 0.97 and 0.99. This work demonstrates the quality of the proposed method combined with the CAMS products. Improvements, especially in the modeling of the reflectivity of the Earth's surface in the UV region, are necessary prior to its inclusion into an operational tool.

  2. Practical models to estimate horizontal irradiance in clear sky conditions: Preliminary results

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salazar, German A.; Hernandez, Alejandro L.; Saravia, Luis R. [Department of Physics, School of Exact Sciences, National University of Salta, Bolivia Avenue 5150, 4400 Salta Capital (Argentina); INENCO (Institute of Non Conventional Energy Research), Bolivia Avenue 5150, 4400 Salta Capital (Argentina)

    2010-11-15

    The Argentinean Northwest (ANW) is a high altitude region located alongside Los Andes Mountains. The ANW is also one of the most insolated regions in the world due to its altitude and particular climate. However, the characterization of the solar resource in the region is incomplete as there are no stations to measure solar radiation continuously and methodically. With irradiance data recently having been measured at three sites in the Salta Province, a study was carried out that resulted in a practical model to quickly and efficiently estimate the horizontal irradiance in high altitude sites in clear sky conditions. This model uses the altitude above sea level (A) as a variable and generates a representative clearness index as a result (k{sub t-R}) that is calculated for each site studied. This index k{sub t-R} is then used with the relative optical air mass and the extraterrestrial irradiance to estimate the instantaneous clearness index (k{sub t}). Subsequently, the index k{sub t-R} is corrected by introducing the atmospheric pressure in the definition of relative optical air mass proposed by Kasten. The results are satisfactory as errors in the irradiance estimations with respect to measured values do not exceed 5% for pressure corrected air masses AM{sub c} < 2. This model will be used in a feasibility study to locate sites for the installation of solar thermal power plants in the ANW. A prototype of a CLFR solar power plant is being built in the INENCO Campus, at the National University of Salta. (author)

  3. An Opto-Electronic Sensor for Detecting Soil Microarthropods and Estimating Their Size in Field Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Csongor I. Gedeon

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Methods to estimate density of soil-dwelling arthropods efficiently, accurately and continuously are critical for investigating soil biological activity and evaluating soil management practices. Soil-dwelling arthropods are currently monitored manually. This method is invasive, and time- and labor-consuming. Here we describe an infrared opto-electronic sensor for detection of soil microarthropods in the size range of 0.4–10 mm. The sensor is built in a novel microarthropod trap designed for field conditions. It allows automated, on-line, in situ detection and body length estimation of soil microarthropods. In the opto-electronic sensor the light source is an infrared LED. Two plano-convex optical lenses are placed along the virtual optical axis. One lens on the receiver side is placed between the observation space at 0.5–1 times its focal length from the sensor, and another emitter side lens is placed between the observation space and the light source in the same way. This paper describes the setup and operating mechanism of the sensor and the control unit, and through basic tests it demonstrates its potential in automated detection of soil microarthropods. The sensor may be used for monitoring activities, especially for remote observation activities in soil and insect ecology or pest control.

  4. The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia Basin. Volume 2: Estimating salmonid survival with combined PIT-CWT tagging. Technical report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, K.

    1997-06-01

    Passive Integrated Transponder (PIT) tags and Coded Wire Tags (CWTs) in combination can provide information about salmonid survival that single tag releases may not. The release and recapture protocol affects which survival and recapture rates can be estimated and the precision of the estimates. For the particular case of Columbia river salmonids tagged with both PIT tags and CWTs, three different release and recapture protocols were evaluated. This report addresses the need to study the fate of salmon smolt in-river and their subsequent return as adults. Double-tagging procedures are investigated where PIT-tags would be used to provide in-river survival data during smolt outmigrations and coded-wire tags (CWT) used to provide adult return information. This report provides statistical models for the analysis of the joint data as well as recommendations on optimal tagging studies. Study costs and stress on smolt can be reduced by only PIT-tagging a subset of all the fish coded-wire-tagged, while retaining the information content and sampling precision

  5. Soil moisture and temperature conditions affect survival and sporulation capacity of Rhododendron leaf disks infested with Phytophthora ramorum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebba K. Peterson; Niklaus J. Grünwald; Jennifer L. ParkeSoil

    2017-01-01

    Soilborne inoculum (infested leaf debris which has become incorporated into the soil) may be an important contributor to the persistence of the sudden oak death pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in recurrently positive nurseries. To initiate new epidemics, soilborne inoculum must not only be able to survive over time, but also be capable of...

  6. STEADY ESTIMATION ALGORITHMS OF THE DYNAMIC SYSTEMS CONDITION ON THE BASIS OF CONCEPTS OF THE ADAPTIVE FILTRATION AND CONTROL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H.Z. Igamberdiyev

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic systems condition estimation regularization algorithms in the conditions of signals and hindrances statistical characteristics aprioristic uncertainty are offered. Regular iterative algorithms of strengthening matrix factor elements of the Kalman filter, allowing to adapt the filter to changing hindrance-alarm conditions are developed. Steady adaptive estimation algorithms of a condition vector in the aprioristic uncertainty conditions of covariance matrixes of object noise and the measurements hindrances providing a certain roughness of filtration process in relation to changing statistical characteristics of signals information parameters are offered. Offered practical realization results of the dynamic systems condition estimation algorithms are given at the adaptive management systems synthesis problems solution by technological processes of granulation drying of an ammophos pulp and receiving ammonia.

  7. 3D conditional generative adversarial networks for high-quality PET image estimation at low dose.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Yu, Biting; Wang, Lei; Zu, Chen; Lalush, David S; Lin, Weili; Wu, Xi; Zhou, Jiliu; Shen, Dinggang; Zhou, Luping

    2018-07-01

    Positron emission tomography (PET) is a widely used imaging modality, providing insight into both the biochemical and physiological processes of human body. Usually, a full dose radioactive tracer is required to obtain high-quality PET images for clinical needs. This inevitably raises concerns about potential health hazards. On the other hand, dose reduction may cause the increased noise in the reconstructed PET images, which impacts the image quality to a certain extent. In this paper, in order to reduce the radiation exposure while maintaining the high quality of PET images, we propose a novel method based on 3D conditional generative adversarial networks (3D c-GANs) to estimate the high-quality full-dose PET images from low-dose ones. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) include a generator network and a discriminator network which are trained simultaneously with the goal of one beating the other. Similar to GANs, in the proposed 3D c-GANs, we condition the model on an input low-dose PET image and generate a corresponding output full-dose PET image. Specifically, to render the same underlying information between the low-dose and full-dose PET images, a 3D U-net-like deep architecture which can combine hierarchical features by using skip connection is designed as the generator network to synthesize the full-dose image. In order to guarantee the synthesized PET image to be close to the real one, we take into account of the estimation error loss in addition to the discriminator feedback to train the generator network. Furthermore, a concatenated 3D c-GANs based progressive refinement scheme is also proposed to further improve the quality of estimated images. Validation was done on a real human brain dataset including both the normal subjects and the subjects diagnosed as mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Experimental results show that our proposed 3D c-GANs method outperforms the benchmark methods and achieves much better performance than the state

  8. Microencapsulation of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG by Transglutaminase Cross-Linked Soy Protein Isolate to Improve Survival in Simulated Gastrointestinal Conditions and Yoghurt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chun; Wang, Chun-Ling; Sun, Yu; Li, Ai-Li; Liu, Fei; Meng, Xiang-Chen

    2016-07-01

    Microencapsulation is an effective way to improve the survival of probiotics in simulated gastrointestinal (GI) conditions and yoghurt. In this study, microencapsulation of Lactobacillus rhamnosus GG (LGG) was prepared by first cross-linking of soy protein isolate (SPI) using transglutaminase (TGase), followed by embedding the bacteria in cross-linked SPI, and then freeze-drying. The survival of microencapsulated LGG was evaluated in simulated GI conditions and yoghurt. The results showed that a high microencapsulation yield of 67.4% was obtained. The diameter of the microencapsulated LGG was in the range of 52.83 to 275.16 μm. Water activity did not differ between free and microencapsulated LGG after freeze-drying. The survival of microencapsulated LGG under simulated gastric juice (pH 2.5 and 3.6), intestinal juice (0.3% and 2% bile salt) and storage at 4 °C were significantly higher than that of free cells. The survival of LGG in TGase cross-linked SPI microcapsules was also improved to 14.5 ± 0.5% during storage in yoghurt. The microencapsulation of probiotics by TGase-treated SPI can be a suitable alternative to polysaccharide gelation technologies. © 2016 Institute of Food Technologists®

  9. Prevalence of Multiple Chronic Conditions Among US Adults: Estimates From the National Health Interview Survey, 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiller, Jeannine S.

    2013-01-01

    Preventing and ameliorating chronic conditions has long been a priority in the United States; however, the increasing recognition that people often have multiple chronic conditions (MCC) has added a layer of complexity with which to contend. The objective of this study was to present the prevalence of MCC and the most common MCC dyads/triads by selected demographic characteristics. We used respondent-reported data from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) to study the US adult civilian noninstitutionalized population aged 18 years or older (n = 27,157). We categorized adults as having 0 to 1, 2 to 3, or 4 or more of the following chronic conditions: hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, diabetes, cancer, arthritis, hepatitis, weak or failing kidneys, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or current asthma. We then generated descriptive estimates and tested for significant differences. Twenty-six percent of adults have MCC; the prevalence of MCC has increased from 21.8% in 2001 to 26.0% in 2010. The prevalence of MCC significantly increased with age, was significantly higher among women than men and among non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black adults than Hispanic adults. The most common dyad identified was arthritis and hypertension, and the combination of arthritis, hypertension, and diabetes was the most common triad. The findings of this study contribute information to the field of MCC research. The NHIS can be used to identify population subgroups most likely to have MCC and potentially lead to clinical guidelines for people with more common MCC combinations. PMID:23618545

  10. Effects of copper on development and survival rate of Paphia malabarica Chemnitz larvae under low saline condition

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Gireesh, R.; Gopinathan, C.P.

    -mail: girmsr@gmail.com Introduction Salinity is an important abiotic factor that lim- its growth and survival of marine organisms, es- pecially in coastal waters where light dependant sessile invertebrates inhabits. Copper is an anthro- pogenic pollutant known... to be harmful in aquatic environment and several sources such as coastal runoffs and anti-fouling paint affects non-target organisms (Peters et al. 1997). Short neck clam, Paphia malabarica (Family: Veneridae) is widely distributed in the Vembanad Lake...

  11. Demographic aspects of Chrysomya megacephala (Diptera, Calliphoridae adults maintained under experimental conditions: reproductive rate estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Henrique de Carvalho

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate some aspects of the populational ecology of Chrysomya megacephala, analyzing demographic aspects of adults kept under experimental conditions. Cages of C. megacephala adults were prepared with four different larval densities (100, 200, 400 and 800. For each cage, two tables were made: one with demographic parameters for the life expectancy estimate at the initial age (e0, and another with the reproductive rate and average reproduction age estimates. Populational parameters such as the intrinsic growth rate (r and the finite growth rate (lambda were calculated as well.Chrysomya megacephala (Fabricius (Diptera, Calliphoridae é uma espécie de mosca-varejeira de considerável importância médico-sanitária que foi introduzida acidentalmente no Brasil nos anos 70. O objetivo do presente trabalho foi avaliar alguns aspectos da ecologia populacional desta espécie, analisando aspectos demográficos de adultos mantidos sob condições experimentais. Gaiolas de C. megacephala foram montadas com quatro diferentes densidades larvais (100, 200, 400 e 800. Para cada gaiola, foram confeccionadas duas tabelas: uma com parâmetros demográficos para a estimativa da expectativa de vida na idade inicial (e0, e outra com as estimativas de taxa reprodutiva e idade média de reprodução. Parâmetros populacionais tais como a taxa intrínseca de crescimento (r e a taxa finita de crescimento (lambda foram também calculados.

  12. Larval food quantity affects development time, survival and adult biological traits that influence the vectorial capacity of Anopheles darlingi under laboratory conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Maisa da-Silva; Gil, Luiz Herman S; e-Silva, Alexandre de-Almeida

    2012-08-02

    The incidence of malaria in the Amazon is seasonal and mosquito vectorial capacity parameters, including abundance and longevity, depend on quantitative and qualitative aspects of the larval diet. Anopheles darlingi is a major malaria vector in the Amazon, representing >95% of total Anopheles population present in the Porto Velho region. Despite its importance in the transmission of the Plasmodium parasite, knowledge of the larval biology and ecology is limited. Studies regarding aspects of adult population ecology are more common than studies on larval ecology. However, in order develop effective control strategies and laboratory breeding conditions for this species, more data on the factors affecting vector biology is needed. The aim of the present study is to assess the effects of larval food quantity on the vectorial capacity of An. darling under laboratory conditions. Anopheles darlingi was maintained at 28°C, 80% humidity and exposed to a daily photoperiod of 12 h. Larvae were divided into three experimental groups that were fed either a low, medium, or high food supply (based on the food amounts consumed by other species of culicids). Each experiment was replicated for six times. A cohort of adults were also exposed to each type of diet and assessed for several biological characteristics (e.g. longevity, bite frequency and survivorship), which were used to estimate the vectorial capacity of each experimental group. The group supplied with higher food amounts observed a reduction in development time while larval survival increased. In addition to enhanced longevity, increasing larval food quantity was positively correlated with increasing frequency of bites, longer blood meal duration and wing length, resulting in greater vectorial capacity. However, females had greater longevity than males despite having smaller wings. Overall, several larval and adult biological traits were significantly affected by larval food availability. Greater larval food supply

  13. Distribution of near-surface permafrost in Alaska: estimates of present and future conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastick, Neal J.; Jorgenson, M. Torre; Wylie, Bruce K.; Nield, Shawn J.; Johnson, Kristofer D.; Finley, Andrew O.

    2015-01-01

    High-latitude regions are experiencing rapid and extensive changes in ecosystem composition and function as the result of increases in average air temperature. Increasing air temperatures have led to widespread thawing and degradation of permafrost, which in turn has affected ecosystems, socioeconomics, and the carbon cycle of high latitudes. Here we overcome complex interactions among surface and subsurface conditions to map nearsurface permafrost through decision and regression tree approaches that statistically and spatially extend field observations using remotely sensed imagery, climatic data, and thematic maps of a wide range of surface and subsurface biophysical characteristics. The data fusion approach generated medium-resolution (30-m pixels) maps of near-surface (within 1 m) permafrost, active-layer thickness, and associated uncertainty estimates throughout mainland Alaska. Our calibrated models (overall test accuracy of ~85%) were used to quantify changes in permafrost distribution under varying future climate scenarios assuming no other changes in biophysical factors. Models indicate that near-surface permafrost underlies 38% of mainland Alaska and that near-surface permafrost will disappear on 16 to 24% of the landscape by the end of the 21st Century. Simulations suggest that near-surface permafrost degradation is more probable in central regions of Alaska than more northerly regions. Taken together, these results have obvious implications for potential remobilization of frozen soil carbon pools under warmer temperatures. Additionally, warmer and drier conditions may increase fire activity and severity, which may exacerbate rates of permafrost thaw and carbon remobilization relative to climate alone. The mapping of permafrost distribution across Alaska is important for land-use planning, environmental assessments, and a wide-array of geophysical studies.

  14. Design and Analysis of Salmonid Tagging Studies in the Columbia Basin, Volume XXI; A Summary of Methods for Conducting Salmonid Fry Mark-Recapture Studies for Estimating Survival in Tributaries, Technical Report 2005-2006.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Skalski, John

    2007-02-01

    Productivity and early fry survival can have a major influence on the dynamics of fish stocks. To investigate the early life history of fish, numerous methods have been developed or adapted to these much smaller fish. Some of the marking techniques provide individual identification; many others, only class identification. Some of the tagging techniques require destructive sampling to identify a mark; other methods permit benign examination and rerelease of captured fish. Sixteen alternative release-recapture designs for conducting fry survival investigations were examined. Eleven approaches were found capable of estimating survival parameters; five were not. Of those methods capable of estimating fry survival, five required unique marks, four required batch-specific marks, and two approaches required remarking and rereleasing captured fry. No approach based on a simple batch mark was capable of statistically estimating survival.

  15. Relative survival of hybrid x-ray-resistant, and normally sensitive mammalian cells exposed to x rays and protons under aerobic and hypoxic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, J.R.; Gould, R.G.; Flynn, D.; Robertson, J.B.; Little, J.B.

    1978-01-01

    Survival of an x-ray-resistant hybrid cell line (HD 1 ) and a normally responsive cell line (H 4 ) have been compared when irradiated under induced hypoxia by both protons and X rays. The two cell lines are similarly protected when irradiated under hypoxic conditions with oxygen enhancement ratios of 2.8 and 2.7, respectively. The protection is consistent with a dose-modifying factor. No statistically significant difference is observed between cell inactivation by x rays and protons in either cell line, whether irradiated under aerobic or hypoxic conditions

  16. Evaluation of the Weibull and log normal distribution functions as survival models of Escherichia coli under isothermal and non isothermal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragao, Glaucia M F; Corradini, Maria G; Normand, Mark D; Peleg, Micha

    2007-11-01

    Published survival curves of Escherichia coli in two growth media, with and without the presence of salt, at various temperatures and in a Greek eggplant salad having various levels of essential oil, all had a characteristic downward concavity when plotted on semi logarithmic coordinates. Some also exhibited what appeared as a 'shoulder' of considerable length. Regardless of whether a shoulder was noticed, the survival pattern could be considered as a manifestation of an underlying unimodal distribution of the cells' death times. Mathematically, the data could be described equally well by the Weibull and log normal distribution functions, which had similar modes, means, standard deviations and coefficients of skewness. When plotted in their probability density function (PDF) form, the curves also appeared very similar visually. This enabled us to quantify and compare the effect of temperature or essential oil concentration on the organism's survival in terms of these temporal distributions' characteristics. Increased lethality was generally expressed in a shorter mean and mode, a smaller standard deviation and increased overall symmetry as judged by the distributions' degree of skewness. The 'shoulder', as expected, simply indicated that the distribution's standard deviation was much smaller than its mode. Rate models based on the two distribution functions could be used to predict non isothermal survival patterns. They were derived on the assumption that the momentary inactivation rate is the isothermal rate at the momentary temperature at a time that corresponds to the momentary survival ratio. In this application, however, the Weibullian model with a fixed power was not only simpler and more convenient mathematically than the one based on the log normal distribution, but it also provided more accurate estimates of the dynamic inactivation patterns.

  17. Survival, causes of death, and estimated tissue doses in a group of human beings injected with plutonium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rowland, R.E.; Durbin, P.W.

    1975-01-01

    To determine the relationship between urinary excretion and plutonium body content, 18 persons of short life expectancy were injected with plutonium between 1945 and 1947. Seventeen of these 18 individuals have been identified; eight were found to have survived for at least eight years and four are still alive today (1975). The causes of death of 13 of these individuals have been determined from death certificates; none appear to be related to the administered plutonium. Doses to the liver and to the cells on the surface of bone have been calculated for these plutonium cases. The liver doses do not appear to be high enough to be carcinogenic, but comparison of the bone-surface doses with radium doses that have induced bone tumors indicates that six of these cases have received doses high enough to be considered carcinogenic. However, no bone tumors have yet appeared. (auth)

  18. Dynamic estimator for determining operating conditions in an internal combustion engine

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellstrom, Erik; Stefanopoulou, Anna; Jiang, Li; Larimore, Jacob

    2016-01-05

    Methods and systems are provided for estimating engine performance information for a combustion cycle of an internal combustion engine. Estimated performance information for a previous combustion cycle is retrieved from memory. The estimated performance information includes an estimated value of at least one engine performance variable. Actuator settings applied to engine actuators are also received. The performance information for the current combustion cycle is then estimated based, at least in part, on the estimated performance information for the previous combustion cycle and the actuator settings applied during the previous combustion cycle. The estimated performance information for the current combustion cycle is then stored to the memory to be used in estimating performance information for a subsequent combustion cycle.

  19. First estimates of the probability of survival in a small-bodied, high-elevation frog (Boreal Chorus Frog, Pseudacris maculata), or how historical data can be useful

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muths, Erin L.; Scherer, R. D.; Amburgey, S. M.; Matthews, T.; Spencer, A. W.; Corn, P.S.

    2016-01-01

    In an era of shrinking budgets yet increasing demands for conservation, the value of existing (i.e., historical) data are elevated. Lengthy time series on common, or previously common, species are particularly valuable and may be available only through the use of historical information. We provide first estimates of the probability of survival and longevity (0.67–0.79 and 5–7 years, respectively) for a subalpine population of a small-bodied, ostensibly common amphibian, the Boreal Chorus Frog (Pseudacris maculata (Agassiz, 1850)), using historical data and contemporary, hypothesis-driven information–theoretic analyses. We also test a priori hypotheses about the effects of color morph (as suggested by early reports) and of drought (as suggested by recent climate predictions) on survival. Using robust mark–recapture models, we find some support for early hypotheses regarding the effect of color on survival, but we find no effect of drought. The congruence between early findings and our analyses highlights the usefulness of historical information in providing raw data for contemporary analyses and context for conservation and management decisions.

  20. The survival condition and immunoregulatory function of adipose stromal vascular fraction (SVF in the early stage of nonvascularized adipose transplantation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ziqing Dong

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Adipose tissue transplantation is one of the standard procedures for soft-tissue augmentation, reconstruction, and rejuvenation. However, it is unknown as to how the graft survives after transplantation. We thus seek out to investigate the roles of different cellular components in the survival of graft. MATERIALS & METHODS: The ratios of stromal vascular fraction (SVF cellular components from human adipose tissue were evaluated using flow cytometry. Human liposuction aspirates that were either mixed with marked SVF cells or PBS were transplanted into nude mice. The graft was harvested and stained on days 1,4,7 and 14. The inflammation level of both SVF group and Fat-only group were also evaluated. RESULTS: Flow cytometric analysis showed SVF cells mainly contained blood-derived cells, adipose-derived stromal cells (ASCs, and endothelial cells. Our study revealed that most cells are susceptible to death after transplantation, although CD34+ ASCs can remain viable for 14 days. Notably, we found that ASCs migrated to the peripheral edge of the graft. Moreover, the RT-PCR and the immuno-fluorescence examination revealed that although the SVF did not reduce the number of infiltrating immune cells (macrophages in the transplant, it does have an immunoregulatory function of up-regulating the expression of CD163 and CD206 and down-regulating that of IL-1β, IL-6. CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the survival of adipose tissue after nonvascularized adipose transplantation may be due to the ASCs in SVF cells. Additionally, the immunoregulatory function of SVF cells may be indirectly contributing to the remolding of adipose transplant, which may lead to SVF-enriched adipose transplantation.

  1. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J.

    2017-01-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elem...

  2. Impact of moisture on survival of Aedes aegypti eggs and ovicidal activity of Metarhizium anisopliae under laboratory conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Luz

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The effect of relative humidity (43%, 75%, 86% and > 98% on Aedes aegypti eggs treated with Metarhizium anisopliae or water only was tested for up to a six months exposure at 25ºC. Survival of larvae inside eggs was clearly affected by the lowest humidity (43% tested, and eclosion diminished at all humidities after increasing periods of exposure. M. anisopliae showed to have a strong ovicidal activity only at humidity close to saturation. No difference of activity was found between conidia and hyphal bodies tested. This fungus affected larvae inside eggs and has potential as a control agent of this important vector in breeding sites with high moisture.

  3. Evaluating the Impact of Zimbabwe's Prevention of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission Program: Population-Level Estimates of HIV-Free Infant Survival Pre-Option A.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buzdugan, Raluca; McCoy, Sandra I; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Kang Dufour, Mi-Suk; Petersen, Maya; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Mushavi, Angela; Mujuru, Hilda Angela; Mahomva, Agnes; Musarandega, Reuben; Hakobyan, Anna; Mugurungi, Owen; Cowan, Frances M; Padian, Nancy S

    2015-01-01

    We estimated HIV-free infant survival and mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) rates in Zimbabwe, some of the first community-based estimates from a UNAIDS priority country. In 2012 we surveyed mother-infant pairs residing in the catchment areas of 157 health facilities randomly selected from 5 of 10 provinces in Zimbabwe. Enrolled infants were born 9-18 months before the survey. We collected questionnaires, blood samples for HIV testing, and verbal autopsies for deceased mothers/infants. Estimates were assessed among i) all HIV-exposed infants, as part of an impact evaluation of Option A of the 2010 WHO guidelines (rolled out in Zimbabwe in 2011), and ii) the subgroup of infants unexposed to Option A. We compared province-level MTCT rates measured among women in the community with MTCT rates measured using program monitoring data from facilities serving those communities. Among 8568 women with known HIV serostatus, 1107 (12.9%) were HIV-infected. Among all HIV-exposed infants, HIV-free infant survival was 90.9% (95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7-92.7) and MTCT was 8.8% (95% CI: 6.9-11.1). Sixty-six percent of HIV-exposed infants were still breastfeeding. Among the 762 infants born before Option A was implemented, 90.5% (95% CI: 88.1-92.5) were alive and HIV-uninfected at 9-18 months of age, and 9.1% (95%CI: 7.1-11.7) were HIV-infected. In four provinces, the community-based MTCT rate was higher than the facility-based MTCT rate. In Harare, the community and facility-based rates were 6.0% and 9.1%, respectively. By 2012 Zimbabwe had made substantial progress towards the elimination of MTCT. Our HIV-free infant survival and MTCT estimates capture HIV transmissions during pregnancy, delivery and breastfeeding regardless of whether or not mothers accessed health services. These estimates also provide a baseline against which to measure the impact of Option A guidelines (and subsequently Option B+).

  4. A flexible and coherent test/estimation procedure based on restricted mean survival times for censored time-to-event data in randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horiguchi, Miki; Cronin, Angel M; Takeuchi, Masahiro; Uno, Hajime

    2018-04-22

    In randomized clinical trials where time-to-event is the primary outcome, almost routinely, the logrank test is prespecified as the primary test and the hazard ratio is used to quantify treatment effect. If the ratio of 2 hazard functions is not constant, the logrank test is not optimal and the interpretation of hazard ratio is not obvious. When such a nonproportional hazards case is expected at the design stage, the conventional practice is to prespecify another member of weighted logrank tests, eg, Peto-Prentice-Wilcoxon test. Alternatively, one may specify a robust test as the primary test, which can capture various patterns of difference between 2 event time distributions. However, most of those tests do not have companion procedures to quantify the treatment difference, and investigators have fallen back on reporting treatment effect estimates not associated with the primary test. Such incoherence in the "test/estimation" procedure may potentially mislead clinicians/patients who have to balance risk-benefit for treatment decision. To address this, we propose a flexible and coherent test/estimation procedure based on restricted mean survival time, where the truncation time τ is selected data dependently. The proposed procedure is composed of a prespecified test and an estimation of corresponding robust and interpretable quantitative treatment effect. The utility of the new procedure is demonstrated by numerical studies based on 2 randomized cancer clinical trials; the test is dramatically more powerful than the logrank, Wilcoxon tests, and the restricted mean survival time-based test with a fixed τ, for the patterns of difference seen in these cancer clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  5. High survival rates of Campylobacter coli under different stress conditions suggest that more rigorous food control measures might be needed in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gomes, Carolina N; Passaglia, Jaqueline; Vilela, Felipe P; Pereira da Silva, Fátima M H S; Duque, Sheila S; Falcão, Juliana P

    2018-08-01

    Campylobacter spp. have been the most commonly reported gastrointestinal bacterial pathogen in many countries. Consumption of improperly prepared poultry meat has been the main transmission route of Campylobacter spp. Although Brazil is the largest exporter of poultry meat in the world, campylobacteriosis has been a neglected disease in the country. The aim of this study was to characterize 50 Campylobacter coli strains isolated from different sources in Brazil regarding the frequency of 16 virulence genes and their survival capability under five different stress conditions. All strains studied presented the cadF, flaA, and sodB genes that are considered essential for colonization. All strains grew at 4 °C and 37 °C after 24 h. High survival rates were observed when the strains were incubated in BHI with 7.5% NaCl and exposed to acid and oxidative stress. In conclusion, the pathogenic potential of the strains studied was reinforced by the presence of several important virulence genes and by the high growth and survival rates of the majority of those strains under different stress conditions. The results enabled a better understanding of strains circulating in Brazil and suggest that more rigorous control measures may be needed, given the importance of contaminated food as vehicles for Campylobacter coli. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Effects of protectant and rehydration conditions on the survival rate and malolactic fermentation efficiency of freeze-dried Lactobacillus plantarum JH287.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sae-Byuk; Kim, Dong-Hwan; Park, Heui-Dong

    2016-09-01

    In this study, Lactobacillus plantarum JH287 was used as a malolactic fermentation starter in Campbell Early wine production. L. plantarum JH287 was first lyophilized, and the malolactic fermentation potential of freeze-dried L. plantarum JH287 was investigated. Different protective media and rehydration conditions were tested to improve the survival rate of freeze-dried L. plantarum JH287. Optimal protective medium contained 10 % sorbitol and 10 % skim milk. The optimal rehydration condition was a 1-h rehydration time conducted in the same protective media, and the combination of these two methods produced a survival rate of 86.37 %. In addition, a 77.71 % survival rate was achieved using freeze-dried samples that were stored at 4 °C for 2 months. Freeze-dried L. plantarum JH287 and Saccharomyces cerevisiae Fermivin were used to inoculate the Campbell Early grape must to decrease its malic acid content. Using this mixed-fermentation method, wine showed a decrease in malic acid content after 9 days of fermentation. GC-MS analysis detected 15 volatile ester compounds in the wine. A sensory evaluation showed that the taste and aroma of mix-fermented wine were better than those of the control that had not been inoculated with L. plantarum JH287.

  7. Estimation of radiating conditions in the reservoirs located close uranium mining of regions of Kazakhstan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bakhtin, M.; Kazymbet, P.; Akhmetova, Z.

    2010-01-01

    For the first time by the analysis of capacity of an equivalent doze of scales - radiations, the maintenance radionuclide and heavy metals in water, ground adjournment and hydrobionts the objective estimation of a radioecological condition of reservoirs in places of extraction, processing and warehousing of uranium ores Akmolinsk of area is given. It is shown, that the investigated reservoirs differ among themselves with a weak, average and high mineralization of water. These circumstances can influence essentially behaviour radionuclides at their hit in a reservoir, and consequently, and on radiating conditions arising at it. Capacity of an equivalent doze of scales - radiations in a coastal part of the majority of the investigated reservoirs corresponds to background values ( 2 ) and beta particles (4,75-4,93 part./mines x sm 2 ) also is marked. The analysis of a radioecological situation in river system Aksu has shown, that its basic components - river water, ground adjournment, water plants and fishes test radiating loading: concentration 238 U in water, ground deposits, a cane and fabrics of the perch makes accordingly 0,66±0,21 Bk/l, 210±2,8 Bk/kg, 0,64±0,19 Bk/kg and 2,50±0,11 Bk/kg. Specific activity 226 Ra in water, ground adjournment, plants and fishes made accordingly 0,02±0,005 Bk/l, 32,20±0,45 Bk/kg, 0,78±0,05 Bk/kg and 2,41±0,31 Bk/kg. Complex radioecological conditions in river system 'Kutunguz' is caused by dump in the river of miner waters with mine 1. In river water concentration 238 U, 226 Ra, 210 Po, 230 Th and 210 Pb makes accordingly on the average - 4,54 Bk/l, 0,11 Bk/l, 2,50 Bk/l, 0,1 Bk/l and 0,37 Bk/l. If the maintenance specified radionuclides in a ground before dump of miner waters varied in limits from 33,1 Bk/kg up to 56,5 Bk/kg in places of dump of miner waters it makes in limits from 62,0 Bk/kg up to 122 Bk/kg, and is lower on a watercourse, in area of settlement B eseloe , in 27 km from a place of dumps - from 92,0 Bk/kg up

  8. Rearing conditions determine offspring survival independent of egg quality : A cross-foster experiment with Oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Pol, Martijn; Bakker, T; Saaltink, DJ; Verhulst, S; Saaltink, Dirk-Jan

    Variation in rearing conditions, due either to parental or to environmental quality, can result in offspring of different quality (e.g. body condition, immune function). However, evidence is accumulating that egg size and composition can also affect offspring quality. In Oystercatchers Haematopus

  9. Attendance at cultural events, reading books or periodicals, and making music or singing in a choir as determinants for survival: Swedish interview survey of living conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bygren, L O; Konlaan, B B; Johansson, S E

    To investigate the possible influence of attendance at cultural events, reading books or periodicals, making music or singing in a choir as determinants for survival. A simple random sample was drawn of 15,198 individuals aged 16-74 years. Of these, 85% (12,982) were interviewed by trained non-medical interviewers between 1982 and 1983 about cultural activities. They were followed up with respect to survival until 31 December 1991. Swedish interview survey of living conditions comprising a random sample of the adult Swedish population. 12,675 people interviewed between 1982 and 1983. Survival of subjects after controlling for eight confounding variables: age, sex, education level, income, long term disease, social network, smoking, and physical exercise. 6,301 men and 6,374 women were followed up; 533 men and 314 women died during this period. The control variables influenced survival in the expected directions except for social network for men; a significant negative effective was found when the analysis was made separately for men and women. We found an influence on mortality when the eight control variables were controlled for in people who rarely attended events compared with those attending most often, the relative risk being 1.57 (95% confidence interval 1.18 to 2.09). Attendance at cultural events may have a positive influence on survival. Long term follow up of large samples with confounders that are well controlled for and with the cultural stimulation more highly specified should be used to try to falsify the hypothesis before experiments start.

  10. FORMATION OF ESTIMATED CONDITIONS FOR LIFE CYCLE OF DEFORMATION WORK OF THE RAILWAY TRACK

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. O. Bondarenko

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Purpose.The purpose of this research is to substantiate the technical limits of the railway track (under reliability status for the formation the regulatory framework for reliability and functional safety of the railway track in Ukraine. Methodology.In order to achieve the goal of research analysis methods of the technical states of elements and trackforms that are typical of operation conditions of the railways in Ukraine were used. Findings.Technical states accordance of elements and trackforms to reliability status under existing regulations was defined. These conditions are based on the track assessments in accordance with the dimensional tape results. The status of each element of the track design affects its deformation work, but the rules are still absent that would connect state of track elements with the state of the track by estimation of the dimensional tape. The reasons on which the limits are not set were established. It was found out which researches are necessary to conduct for their installation. Originality. The classification of the reliability state of a railway track for permitted deviation at the track laying and maintenance was developed. The regulation importance the technical states of ballast section and subgrade for the developed classification was established. Practical value. Ukrzaliznytsia (UZ is a founding member of the Council for Railway Transport of the Commonwealth. This body issued interstate standard State Standard 32192-2013 «Reliability of railway equipment. Basic concepts, terms and definitions». On this basis developed a new interstate standard «Security functional of railway equipment. Terms and definitions». At the same time UZ is a member of the cooperation of railways in International Union of Railway Transport where rules with reliable and safe operation of railways are established in all transport branches. This study will help implement these standards on the railways of Ukraine, improve the

  11. Relationships between mastitis and functional longevity in Danish Black and White dairy cattle estimated using survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neerhof, H J; Madsen, P; Ducrocq, V P; Vollema, A R; Jensen, J; Korsgaard, I R

    2000-05-01

    The relationship between mastitis and functional longevity was assessed with survival analysis on data of Danish Black and White dairy cows. Different methods of including the effect of mastitis treatment on the culling decision by a farmer in the model were compared. The model in which mastitis treatment was assumed to have an effect on functional longevity until the end of the lactation had the highest likelihood, and the model in which mastitis treatment had an effect for only a short period had the lowest likelihood. A cow with mastitis had 1.69 times greater risk of being culled than did a healthy herdmate with all other effects being the same. A model without mastitis treatment was used to predict transmitting abilities of bulls for risk of being culled, based on longevity records of their daughters, and was expressed in terms of risk of being culled. The correlation between the risk of being culled and the national evaluations of the bulls for mastitis resistance was approximately -0.4, indicating that resistance against mastitis was genetically correlated with a lower risk of being culled and, thus, a longer functional length of productive life.

  12. IV. Effect of 60Co gamma rays on survival rate of China aster plants (Callistephus chinensis Nees in M1 generations - under field conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Wosińska

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Studies were undertaken on the effect of different doses of gamma radiation on survival rate of plants (germinated from irradiated seeds for 5 China aster varieties specified at florescence time. During their growth under field conditions (from planting time to blooming lethal effect of the radiation occurred in plants of all varieties and its level depended on dose and variety. Effect of 3 kR and 6 kR doses differed depending on variety and was not always harmful, but following irradiation with doses exceeding 6 kR a considerable decrease in survival rate was observed. Radioresistance of studied varieties - measured both: by LD50 and LDl00 - differed; depending on variety, LD50 and LDl00 values fluctuated: from 6 to 9 kR and 12 to 15 kR respectively.

  13. Novel activity classification and occupancy estimation methods for intelligent HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rana, Rajib; Kusy, Brano; Wall, Josh; Hu, Wen

    2015-01-01

    Reductions in HVAC (heating, ventilation and air conditioning) energy consumption can be achieved by limiting heating in the winter or cooling in the summer. However, the resulting low thermal comfort of building occupants may lead to an override of the HVAC control, which revokes its original purpose. This has led to an increased interest in modeling and real-time tracking of location, activity, and thermal comfort of building occupants for HVAC energy management. While thermal comfort is well understood, it is difficult to measure in real-time environments where user context changes dynamically. Encouragingly, plethora of sensors available on smartphone unleashes the opportunity to measure user contexts in real-time. An important contextual information for measuring thermal comfort is Metabolism rate, which changes based on current physical activities. To measure physical activity, we develop an activity classifier, which achieves 10% higher accuracy compared to Support Vector Machine and k-Nearest Neighbor. Office occupancy is another contextual information for energy-efficient HVAC control. Most of the phone based occupancy estimation techniques will fail to determine occupancy when phones are left at desk while sitting or attending meetings. We propose a novel sensor fusion method to detect if a user is near the phone, which achieves more than 90% accuracy. Determining activity and occupancy our proposed algorithms can help maintaining thermal comfort while reducing HVAC energy consumptions. - Highlights: • We propose activity and occupancy detection for efficient HVAC control. • Activity classifier achieves 10% higher accuracy than SVM and kNN. • For occupancy detection we propose a novel sensor fusion method. • Using Weighted Majority Voting we fuse microphone and accelerometer data on phone. • We achieve more than 90% accuracy in detecting occupancy.

  14. A tool to estimate bar patterns and flow conditions in estuaries when limited data is available

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leuven, J.; Verhoeve, S.; Bruijns, A. J.; Selakovic, S.; van Dijk, W. M.; Kleinhans, M. G.

    2017-12-01

    The effects of human interventions, natural evolution of estuaries and rising sea-level on food security and flood safety are largely unknown. In addition, ecologists require quantified habitat area to study future evolution of estuaries, but they lack predictive capability of bathymetry and hydrodynamics. For example, crucial input required for ecological models are values of intertidal area, inundation time, peak flow velocities and salinity. While numerical models can reproduce these spatial patterns, their computational times are long and for each case a new model must be developed. Therefore, we developed a comprehensive set of relations that accurately predict the hydrodynamics and the patterns of channels and bars, using a combination of the empirical relations derived from approximately 50 estuaries and theory for bars and estuaries. The first step is to predict local tidal prisms, which is the tidal prism that flows through a given cross-section. Second, the channel geometry is predicted from tidal prism and hydraulic geometry relations. Subsequently, typical flow velocities can be estimated from the channel geometry and tidal prism. Then, an ideal estuary shape is fitted to the measured planform: the deviation from the ideal shape, which is defined as the excess width, gives a measure of the locations where tidal bars form and their summed width (Leuven et al., 2017). From excess width, typical hypsometries can be predicted per cross-section. In the last step, flow velocities are calculated for the full range of occurring depths and salinity is calculated based on the estuary shape. Here, we will present a prototype tool that predicts equilibrium bar patterns and typical flow conditions. The tool is easy to use because the only input required is the estuary outline and tidal amplitude. Therefore it can be used by policy makers and researchers from multiple disciplines, such as ecologists, geologists and hydrologists, for example for paleogeographic

  15. Effects of ocean acidification on juvenile red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus and Tanner crab (Chionoecetes bairdi growth, condition, calcification, and survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    William Christopher Long

    Full Text Available Ocean acidification, a decrease in the pH in marine waters associated with rising atmospheric CO2 levels, is a serious threat to marine ecosystems. In this paper, we determine the effects of long-term exposure to near-future levels of ocean acidification on the growth, condition, calcification, and survival of juvenile red king crabs, Paralithodes camtschaticus, and Tanner crabs, Chionoecetes bairdi. Juveniles were reared in individual containers for nearly 200 days in flowing control (pH 8.0, pH 7.8, and pH 7.5 seawater at ambient temperatures (range 4.4-11.9 °C. In both species, survival decreased with pH, with 100% mortality of red king crabs occurring after 95 days in pH 7.5 water. Though the morphology of neither species was affected by acidification, both species grew slower in acidified water. At the end of the experiment, calcium concentration was measured in each crab and the dry mass and condition index of each crab were determined. Ocean acidification did not affect the calcium content of red king crab but did decrease the condition index, while it had the opposite effect on Tanner crabs, decreasing calcium content but leaving the condition index unchanged. This suggests that red king crab may be able to maintain calcification rates, but at a high energetic cost. The decrease in survival and growth of each species is likely to have a serious negative effect on their populations in the absence of evolutionary adaptation or acclimatization over the coming decades.

  16. Optimization of Training Signal Transmission for Estimating MIMO Channel under Antenna Mutual Coupling Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Liu

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper reports investigations on the effect of antenna mutual coupling on performance of training-based Multiple-Input Multiple-Output (MIMO channel estimation. The influence of mutual coupling is assessed for two training-based channel estimation methods, Scaled Least Square (SLS and Minimum Mean Square Error (MMSE. It is shown that the accuracy of MIMO channel estimation is governed by the sum of eigenvalues of channel correlation matrix which in turn is influenced by the mutual coupling in transmitting and receiving array antennas. A water-filling-based procedure is proposed to optimize the training signal transmission to minimize the MIMO channel estimation errors.

  17. Maximum likelihood PSD estimation for speech enhancement in reverberant and noisy conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kuklasinski, Adam; Doclo, Simon; Jensen, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    of the estimator is in speech enhancement algorithms, such as the Multi-channel Wiener Filter (MWF) and the Minimum Variance Distortionless Response (MVDR) beamformer. We evaluate these two algorithms in a speech dereverberation task and compare the performance obtained using the proposed and a competing PSD...... estimator. Instrumental performance measures indicate an advantage of the proposed estimator over the competing one. In a speech intelligibility test all algorithms significantly improved the word intelligibility score. While the results suggest a minor advantage of using the proposed PSD estimator...

  18. No improvement of survival with reduced- versus high-intensity conditioning for allogeneic stem cell transplants in Ewing tumor patients

    OpenAIRE

    Thiel, U.; Wawer, A.; Wolf, P.; Badoglio, M.; Santucci, A.; Klingebiel, T.; Basu, O.; Borkhardt, A.; Laws, H.-J; Kodera, Y.; Yoshimi, A.; Peters, C.; Ladenstein, R.; Pession, A.; Prete, A.

    2017-01-01

    Background: Outcomes of Ewing tumor (ET) patients treated with allogeneic stem cell transplantation (allo-SCT) were compared regarding the use of reduced-intensity conditioning (RIC) and high-intensity conditioning (HIC) regimens as well as human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-matched and HLA-mismatched grafts. Patients and methods: We retrospectively analyzed data of 87 ET patients from the European Group for Blood and Marrow Transplantation, Pediatric Registry for Stem Cell Transplantations, Asia ...

  19. Similar Survival for Patients Undergoing Reduced-Intensity Total Body Irradiation (TBI) Versus Myeloablative TBI as Conditioning for Allogeneic Transplant in Acute Leukemia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mikell, John L., E-mail: jmikell@emory.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Waller, Edmund K. [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Switchenko, Jeffrey M. [Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Rangaraju, Sravanti; Ali, Zahir; Graiser, Michael [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Hall, William A. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Langston, Amelia A. [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Esiashvili, Natia [Department of Radiation Oncology, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Khoury, H. Jean [Department of Hematology and Oncology, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States); Khan, Mohammad K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Winship Cancer Institute, Emory University, Atlanta, Georgia (United States)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT) is the mainstay of treatment for adults with acute leukemia. Total body irradiation (TBI) remains an important part of the conditioning regimen for HCST. For those patients unable to tolerate myeloablative TBI (mTBI), reduced intensity TBI (riTBI) is commonly used. In this study we compared outcomes of patients undergoing mTBI with those of patients undergoing riTBI in our institution. Methods and Materials: We performed a retrospective review of all patients with acute leukemia who underwent TBI-based conditioning, using a prospectively acquired database of HSCT patients treated at our institution. Patient data including details of the transplantation procedure, disease status, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), response rates, toxicity, survival time, and time to progression were extracted. Patient outcomes for various radiation therapy regimens were examined. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed. Results: Between June 1985 and July 2012, 226 patients with acute leukemia underwent TBI as conditioning for HSCT. Of those patients, 180 had full radiation therapy data available; 83 had acute lymphoblastic leukemia and 94 had acute myelogenous leukemia; 45 patients received riTBI, and 135 received mTBI. Median overall survival (OS) was 13.7 months. Median relapse-free survival (RFS) for all patients was 10.2 months. Controlling for age, sex, KPS, disease status, and diagnosis, there were no significant differences in OS or RFS between patients who underwent riTBI and those who underwent mTBI (P=.402, P=.499, respectively). Median length of hospital stay was shorter for patients who received riTBI than for those who received mTBI (16 days vs 23 days, respectively; P<.001), and intensive care unit admissions were less frequent following riTBI than mTBI (2.22% vs 12.69%, respectively, P=.043). Nonrelapse survival rates were also similar (P=.186). Conclusions: No differences in OS or RFS were seen between

  20. Comparison of Two Mechanistic Microbial Growth Models to Estimate Shelf Life of Perishable Food Package under Dynamic Temperature Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dong Sun Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Two mechanistic microbial growth models (Huang’s model and model of Baranyi and Roberts given in differential and integrated equation forms were compared in predicting the microbial growth and shelf life under dynamic temperature storage and distribution conditions. Literatures consistently reporting the microbial growth data under constant and changing temperature conditions were selected to obtain the primary model parameters, set up the secondary models, and apply them to predict the microbial growth and shelf life under fluctuating temperatures. When evaluated by general estimation behavior, bias factor, accuracy factor, and root-mean-square error, Huang’s model was comparable to Baranyi and Roberts’ model in the capability to estimate microbial growth under dynamic temperature conditions. Its simple form of single differential equation incorporating directly the growth rate and lag time may work as an advantage to be used in online shelf life estimation by using the electronic device.

  1. A generalized L1-approach for a kernel estimator of conditional quantile with functional regressors: Consistency and asymptotic normality

    OpenAIRE

    2009-01-01

    Abstract A kernel estimator of the conditional quantile is defined for a scalar response variable given a covariate taking values in a semi-metric space. The approach generalizes the median?s L1-norm estimator. The almost complete consistency and asymptotic normality are stated. correspondance: Corresponding author. Tel: +33 320 964 933; fax: +33 320 964 704. (Lemdani, Mohamed) (Laksaci, Ali) mohamed.lemdani@univ-lill...

  2. Critical headway estimation under uncertainty and non-ideal communication conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kester, L.J.H.M.; Willigen, W. van; Jongh, J.F.C.M de

    2014-01-01

    This article proposes a safety check extension to Adaptive Cruise Control systems where the critical headway time is estimated in real-time. This critical headway time estimate enables automated reaction to crisis circumstances such as when a preceding vehicle performs an emergency brake. We discuss

  3. Computational Intelligence in Software Cost Estimation: Evolving Conditional Sets of Effort Value Ranges

    OpenAIRE

    Papatheocharous, Efi; Andreou, Andreas S.

    2008-01-01

    In this approach we aimed at addressing the problem of large variances found in available historical data that are used in software cost estimation. Project data is expensive to collect, manage and maintain. Therefore, if we wish to lower the dependence of the estimation to

  4. Human circadian phase estimation from signals collected in ambulatory conditions using an autoregressive model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gil, Enrique A; Aubert, Xavier L; Møst, Els I S; Beersma, Domien G M

    Phase estimation of the human circadian rhythm is a topic that has been explored using various modeling approaches. The current models range from physiological to mathematical, all attempting to estimate the circadian phase from different physiological or behavioral signals. Here, we have focused on

  5. Semi-parametric estimation of random effects in a logistic regression model using conditional inference

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Jørgen Holm

    2016-01-01

    This paper describes a new approach to the estimation in a logistic regression model with two crossed random effects where special interest is in estimating the variance of one of the effects while not making distributional assumptions about the other effect. A composite likelihood is studied...

  6. Statistical estimate of factors influence on sorption of Mo(Ⅵ) ions by tin hydroxide in dynamic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parshutkin, V.V.; Granovskiy, Yu.V.; Prozorovskaya, Z.N.

    1986-01-01

    Present work is devoted to statistical estimate of factors influence on sorption of Mo(Ⅵ) ions by tin hydroxide in dynamic conditions. The influence of different factors on the process of sorption of Co(Ⅵ) ions by cryo-granular tin hydroxide in dynamic conditions is studied and optimal conditions of their extraction from aqueous solutions are considered. It is defined that factors significant affect the sorption process in dynamic conditions are: concentration of Mo(Ⅵ) ions in solution; the mass of sorbent; the rate of transmission of solution through the layer of sorbent; concentration of SO 4 2- ions in solution.

  7. Prediction of the optimum hybridization conditions of dot-blot-SNP analysis using estimated melting temperature of oligonucleotide probes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiokai, Sachiko; Kitashiba, Hiroyasu; Nishio, Takeshi

    2010-08-01

    Although the dot-blot-SNP technique is a simple cost-saving technique suitable for genotyping of many plant individuals, optimization of hybridization and washing conditions for each SNP marker requires much time and labor. For prediction of the optimum hybridization conditions for each probe, we compared T (m) values estimated from nucleotide sequences using the DINAMelt web server, measured T (m) values, and hybridization conditions yielding allele-specific signals. The estimated T (m) values were comparable to the measured T (m) values with small differences of less than 3 degrees C for most of the probes. There were differences of approximately 14 degrees C between the specific signal detection conditions and estimated T (m) values. Change of one level of SSC concentrations of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, and 1.0x SSC corresponded to a difference of approximately 5 degrees C in optimum signal detection temperature. Increasing the sensitivity of signal detection by shortening the exposure time to X-ray film changed the optimum hybridization condition for specific signal detection. Addition of competitive oligonucleotides to the hybridization mixture increased the suitable hybridization conditions by 1.8. Based on these results, optimum hybridization conditions for newly produced dot-blot-SNP markers will become predictable.

  8. Mercury critical concentrations to Enchytraeus crypticus (Annelida: Oligochaeta) under normal and extreme conditions of moisture in tropical soils - Reproduction and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buch, Andressa Cristhy; Schmelz, Rüdiger M; Niva, Cintia Carla; Correia, Maria Elizabeth Fernandes; Silva-Filho, Emmanoel Vieira

    2017-05-01

    Soil provides many ecosystem services that are essential to maintain its quality and healthy development of the flora, fauna and human well-being. Environmental mercury levels may harm the survival and diversity of the soil fauna. In this respect, efforts have been made to establish limit values of mercury (Hg) in soils to terrestrial fauna. Soil organisms such as earthworms and enchytraeids have intimate contact with trace metals in soil by their oral and dermal routes, reflecting the potentially adverse effects of this contaminant. The main goal of this study was to obtain Hg critical concentrations under normal and extreme conditions of moisture in tropical soils to Enchytraeus crypticus to order to assess if climate change may potentiate their acute and chronic toxicity effects. Tropical soils were sampled from of two Forest Conservation Units of the Rio de Janeiro State - Brazil, which has been contaminated by Hg atmospheric depositions. Worms were exposed to three moisture conditions, at 20%, 50% and 80% of water holding capacity, respectively, and in combination with different Hg (HgCl 2 ) concentrations spiked in three types of tropical soil (two natural soils and one artificial soil). The tested concentrations ranged from 0 to 512mg Hg kg -1 dry weight. Results indicate that the Hg toxicity is higher under increased conditions of moisture, significantly affecting survival and reproduction rate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

    2014-02-01

    Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

  10. Relationships between changes in Holstein cow’s body condition, acetone and urea content in milk and cervical mucus and sperm survival

    OpenAIRE

    Jan Beran; Luděk Stádník; Jaromír Ducháček; Monika Okrouhlá

    2012-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationship between changes in Holstein cow’s body condition score (BCS), acetone and urea content in the milk and cervical mucus (CM) and sperm survival in CM. At insemination, samples of milk and CM were collected from 64 Holstein cows. Content of acetone and urea were determined. Sperm motility was assessed subjectively at the beginning and after 30, 60 and 90 minutes of the short-term heat test in CM. Data about evaluation of cow’s BCS we...

  11. [The survival and development conditions of community-based organizations for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among men who have sex with men in three Chinese cities].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Xiaojing; Shan, Duo; Qi, Jinlei; Ouyang, Lin; Wang, Hui; Fu, Jie; Sun, Jiangping

    2015-06-01

    To investigate the survival and development conditions of community-based organizations (CBOs) for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among men who have sex with men (MSM) in Chinese cities including Shanghai, Hangzhou, Chongqing. This study employed both qualitative (focus groups) and quantitative (questionnaire survey) methods to obtain information from 15 MSM CBOs in three Chinese cities. The mean work time of the 15 CBOs for HIV/AIDS prevention and control among MSM was 6.7 years (2.1-11.3 years), and the majority of their funds was from international cooperation projects (80 447 000 RMB, 73.0%) from 2006 to 2013. The survival cost of MSM CBOs apart from expenditure of activities was 2 240-435 360 RMB per year. As it was shown in the graph, the survival and development of MSM CBOs was closely related to the development of international cooperation projects. There was a few small size MSM CBOs taking part in the prevention and control of HIV/AIDS and their work content was limited before 2006. From 2006 to 2008, some international cooperation projects were launched in China, such as the China Global Fund AIDS project and the China-Gates Foundation HIV Prevention Cooperation program. As a result, the number of MSM CBOs was increased sharply, and both the scale and 2012, the performance of these programs further promote the establishment of new MSM CBOs and the development of all MSM CBOs with regard to the work places, full-time staffs, work contents, work patterns and the specific targeted population. After 2012, most international cooperation programs were completed and the local department of disease prevention and control continued to cooperate with MSM CBOs. However, the degree of support funds from the local department was different among different regions. Where the funds were below the half of program funds, the development of MSM CBOs ceased and work slowed down. Besides, there were still some constraints for the survival and development of MSM CBOs, such

  12. Encapsulation of the therapeutic microbe Akkermansia muciniphila in a double emulsion enhances survival in simulated gastric conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ark, van der Kees C.H.; Nugroho, Avis Dwi Wahyu; Berton-Carabin, Claire; Wang, Che; Belzer, Clara; Vos, de Willem M.; Schroen, Karin

    2017-01-01

    There is considerable attention for developing Akkermansia muciniphila as a new therapeutic microbe since it has shown to prevent diet-induced obesity and type 2 diabetes in mice. However, A. muciniphila is sensitive to gastric conditions such as low pH and oxygen. Therefore, we explored the

  13. Análisis de supervivencia en presencia de riesgos competitivos: estimadores de la probabilidad de suceso Survival analysis with competing risks: estimating failure probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Llorca

    2004-10-01

    Full Text Available Objetivo: Mostrar el efecto de los riesgos competitivos de muerte en el análisis de supervivencia. Métodos: Se presenta un ejemplo sobre la supervivencia libre de rechazo tras un trasplante cardíaco, en el que la muerte antes de desarrollar el rechazo actúa como riesgo competitivo. Mediante una simulación se comparan el estimador de Kaplan-Meier y el modelo de decrementos múltiples. Resultados: El método de Kaplan-Meier sobrestima el riesgo de rechazo. A continuación, se expone la aplicación del modelo de decrementos múltiples para el análisis de acontecimientos secundarios (en el ejemplo, la muerte tras el rechazo. Finalmente, se discuten las asunciones propias del método de Kaplan-Meier y las razones por las que no puede ser aplicado en presencia de riesgos competitivos. Conclusiones: El análisis de supervivencia debe ajustarse por los riesgos competitivos de muerte para evitar la sobrestimación del riesgo de fallo que se produce con el método de Kaplan-Meier.Objective: To show the impact of competing risks of death on survival analysis. Method: We provide an example of survival time without chronic rejection after heart transplantation, where death before rejection acts as a competing risk. Using a computer simulation, we compare the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement model. Results: The Kaplan-Meier method overestimated the probability of rejection. Next, we illustrate the use of the multiple decrement model to analyze secondary end points (in our example: death after rejection. Finally, we discuss Kaplan-Meier assumptions and why they fail in the presence of competing risks. Conclusions: Survival analysis should be adjusted for competing risks of death to avoid overestimation of the risk of rejection produced with the Kaplan-Meier method.

  14. Rice yield estimation based on weather conditions and on technological level of production systems in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Eduardo Boffino de Almeida Monteiro

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to evaluate an estimation system for rice yield in Brazil, based on simple agrometeorological models and on the technological level of production systems. This estimation system incorporates the conceptual basis proposed by Doorenbos & Kassam for potential and attainable yields with empirical adjusts for maximum yield and crop sensitivity to water deficit, considering five categories of rice yield. Rice yield was estimated from 2000/2001 to 2007/2008, and compared to IBGE yield data. Regression analyses between model estimates and data from IBGE surveys resulted in significant coefficients of determination, with less dispersion in the South than in the North and Northeast regions of the country. Index of model efficiency (E1' ranged from 0.01 in the lower yield classes to 0.45 in higher ones, and mean absolute error ranged from 58 to 250 kg ha‑1, respectively.

  15. Methodology to estimate parameters of an excitation system based on experimental conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saavedra-Montes, A.J. [Carrera 80 No 65-223, Bloque M8 oficina 113, Escuela de Mecatronica, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Medellin (Colombia); Calle 13 No 100-00, Escuela de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle (Colombia); Ramirez-Scarpetta, J.M. [Calle 13 No 100-00, Escuela de Ingenieria Electrica y Electronica, Universidad del Valle, Cali, Valle (Colombia); Malik, O.P. [2500 University Drive N.W., Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta (Canada)

    2011-01-15

    A methodology to estimate the parameters of a potential-source controlled rectifier excitation system model is presented in this paper. The proposed parameter estimation methodology is based on the characteristics of the excitation system. A comparison of two pseudo random binary signals, two sampling periods for each one, and three estimation algorithms is also presented. Simulation results from an excitation control system model and experimental results from an excitation system of a power laboratory setup are obtained. To apply the proposed methodology, the excitation system parameters are identified at two different levels of the generator saturation curve. The results show that it is possible to estimate the parameters of the standard model of an excitation system, recording two signals and the system operating in closed loop with the generator. The normalized sum of squared error obtained with experimental data is below 10%, and with simulation data is below 5%. (author)

  16. Reporting Errors in Siblings’ Survival Histories and Their Impact on Adult Mortality Estimates: Results From a Record Linkage Study in Senegal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Kanté, Almamy M.; Duthé, Géraldine; Andro, Armelle

    2014-01-01

    Estimates of adult mortality in countries with limited vital registration (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) are often derived from information about the survival of a respondent’s siblings. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of such data through a record linkage study conducted in Bandafassi, located in southeastern Senegal. We linked at the individual level retrospective siblings’ survival histories (SSH) reported by female respondents (n = 268) to prospective mortality data and genealogies collected through a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Respondents often reported inaccurate lists of siblings. Additions to these lists were uncommon, but omissions were frequent: respondents omitted 3.8 % of their live sisters, 9.1 % of their deceased sisters, and 16.6 % of their sisters who had migrated out of the DSS area. Respondents underestimated the age at death of the siblings they reported during the interview, particularly among siblings who had died at older ages (≥45 years). Restricting SSH data to person-years and events having occurred during a recent reference period reduced list errors but not age and date errors. Overall, SSH data led to a 20 % underestimate of 45q15 relative to HDSS data. Our study suggests new quality improvement strategies for SSH data and demonstrates the potential use of HDSS data for the validation of “unconventional” demographic techniques. PMID:24493063

  17. Reporting errors in siblings' survival histories and their impact on adult mortality estimates: results from a record linkage study in Senegal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helleringer, Stéphane; Pison, Gilles; Kanté, Almamy M; Duthé, Géraldine; Andro, Armelle

    2014-04-01

    Estimates of adult mortality in countries with limited vital registration (e.g., sub-Saharan Africa) are often derived from information about the survival of a respondent's siblings. We evaluated the completeness and accuracy of such data through a record linkage study conducted in Bandafassi, located in southeastern Senegal. We linked at the individual level retrospective siblings' survival histories (SSH) reported by female respondents (n = 268) to prospective mortality data and genealogies collected through a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS). Respondents often reported inaccurate lists of siblings. Additions to these lists were uncommon, but omissions were frequent: respondents omitted 3.8 % of their live sisters, 9.1 % of their deceased sisters, and 16.6 % of their sisters who had migrated out of the DSS area. Respondents underestimated the age at death of the siblings they reported during the interview, particularly among siblings who had died at older ages (≥45 years). Restricting SSH data to person-years and events having occurred during a recent reference period reduced list errors but not age and date errors. Overall, SSH data led to a 20 % underestimate of 45 q 15 relative to HDSS data. Our study suggests new quality improvement strategies for SSH data and demonstrates the potential use of HDSS data for the validation of "unconventional" demographic techniques.

  18. ENERGY AND PROTEIN REQUIREMENTS OF GROWING PELIBUEY SHEEP UNDER TROPICAL CONDITIONS ESTIMATED FROM A LITERATURE DATABASE ANALYSES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Duarte

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Data from previous studies were used to estimate the metabolizable energy and protein requirements for maintenance and growth and basal metabolism energy requirement of male Pelibuey sheep under tropical conditions were estimated. In addition, empty body weight and mature weight of males and female Pelibuey sheep were also estimated. Basal metabolism energy requirements were estimated with the Cornell Net Carbohydrate and Protein System – Sheep (CNCPS-S model using the a1 factor of the maintenance equation. Mature weight was estimated to be 69 kg for males and 45 kg for females. Empty body weight was estimated to be 81% of live weight. Metabolizable energy and protein requirements for growth were 0.106 Mcal MEm/kg LW0.75 and 2.4 g MP/kg LW0.75 for males. The collected information did not allowed appropriate estimation of female requirements. The basal metabolism energy requirement was estimated to be 0.039 Mcal MEm/kg LW0.75. Energy requirements for basal metabolism were lower in Pelibuey sheep than those reported for wool breeds even though their total requirements were similar.

  19. Estimation methods of deformational behaviours of RC beams under the unrestrained condition at elevated temperatures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanezu, Tsutomu; Nakano, Takehiro; Endo, Tatsumi

    1986-01-01

    The estimation methods of free deformations of reinforced concrete (RC) beams at elevated temperatures are investigated based on the concepts of ACI's and CEB/FIP's formulas, which are well used to estimate the flexural deformations of RC beams at normal temperature. Conclusions derived from the study are as follows. 1. Features of free deformations of RC beams. (i) The ratios of the average compressive strains on the top fiber of RC beams to the calculated ones at the cracked section show the inclinations that the ratios once drop after cracking and then remain constant according to temperature rises. (ii) Average compressive strains might be estimated by the average of the calculated strains at the perfect bond section and the cracked section of RC beam. (iii) The ratios of the average tensile strains on the level of reinforcements to the calculated ones at the cracked section are inclined to approach the value of 1.0 monotonically according to temperature rises. The changes of the average tensile strains are caused by the deterioration of bond strength and cracking due to the increase of the differences of expansive strains between reinforcement and concrete. 2. Estimation methods of free deformations of RC beams. (i) In order to estimate the free deformations of RC beams at elevated temperatures, the basic concepts of ACI's and CEB/FIP's formulas are adopted, which are well used to estimate the M-φ relations of RC beams at normal temperature. (ii) It was confirmed that the suggested formulas are able to estimate the free deformations of RC beams, that is, the longitudinal deformation and the curvature, at elevated temperatures. (author)

  20. Genetic Parameters for Body condition score, Body weigth, Milk yield and Fertility estimated using random regression models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berry, D.P.; Buckley, F.; Dillon, P.; Evans, R.D.; Rath, M.; Veerkamp, R.F.

    2003-01-01

    Genetic (co)variances between body condition score (BCS), body weight (BW), milk yield, and fertility were estimated using a random regression animal model extended to multivariate analysis. The data analyzed included 81,313 BCS observations, 91,937 BW observations, and 100,458 milk test-day yields

  1. Response of TLD badge for the estimation of exposure conditions in diagnostic x-ray departments - use of lead aprons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pradhan, A.S.; Chatterjee, S.; Bakshi, A.K.

    2002-01-01

    The present study was undertaken to ascertain the conditions of exposure of the TLD badge and to evaluate the inaccuracy involved in the estimation of dose received by the worker using an averaged lead apron transmission factor for the use of the badge above lead apron

  2. An estimate of conditioned waste arisings to the years 2000 and 2010 for the Department of Energy power generation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairclough, M.P.; Moore, D.C.; Tymons, B.J.

    1984-09-01

    An estimate of conditioned waste arisings to the years 2000 and 2010 has been made using evidence presented at the Sizewell 'B' public enquiry. The method of calculation has been based on the rate of arisings per GWe year and the power programmes of the Department of Energy. (author)

  3. Estimation of Filling and Afterload Conditions by Pump Intrinsic Parameters in a Pulsatile Total Artificial Heart.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuenca-Navalon, Elena; Laumen, Marco; Finocchiaro, Thomas; Steinseifer, Ulrich

    2016-07-01

    A physiological control algorithm is being developed to ensure an optimal physiological interaction between the ReinHeart total artificial heart (TAH) and the circulatory system. A key factor for that is the long-term, accurate determination of the hemodynamic state of the cardiovascular system. This study presents a method to determine estimation models for predicting hemodynamic parameters (pump chamber filling and afterload) from both left and right cardiovascular circulations. The estimation models are based on linear regression models that correlate filling and afterload values with pump intrinsic parameters derived from measured values of motor current and piston position. Predictions for filling lie in average within 5% from actual values, predictions for systemic afterload (AoPmean , AoPsys ) and mean pulmonary afterload (PAPmean ) lie in average within 9% from actual values. Predictions for systolic pulmonary afterload (PAPsys ) present an average deviation of 14%. The estimation models show satisfactory prediction and confidence intervals and are thus suitable to estimate hemodynamic parameters. This method and derived estimation models are a valuable alternative to implanted sensors and are an essential step for the development of a physiological control algorithm for a fully implantable TAH. Copyright © 2015 International Center for Artificial Organs and Transplantation and Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. The influence of different salinity conditions on egg buoyancy and development and yolk sac larval survival and morphometric traits of Baltic Sea sprat (Sprattus sprattus balticus Schneider

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christoph Petereit

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available The small pelagic sprat (Sprattus sprattus is a key ecologic player in the Baltic Sea. However, there is long-term variability in recruitment which is thought to be influenced by fluctuations in abiotic and biotic conditions experienced during the early life stages. This study concentrates on the influence of different ambient salinities on sprat egg development, egg buoyancy and survival as well as early yolk sac larval morphometric traits. Egg buoyancy significantly decreased with increasing salinity experienced during fertilization and/or incubation experiments. Field egg buoyancy measurements in 2007 and 2008 exhibited annual and seasonal differences in specific gravity, potentially associated with changes in adult sprat vertical distribution. Neither egg development time nor the duration of the yolk sac phase differed among salinity treatments. At eye pigmentation, larval standard length exhibited high variance among individuals but did not differ among treatments. The largest ecological impact of salinity experienced during spawning was the modification the buoyancy of eggs and yolk sac larvae, which determines their vertical habitat in the Baltic Sea. There are strong thermo- and oxyclines in the Baltic Sea, and thus salinity can indirectly impact the survival of these early life stages by modifying the ambient temperatures and oxygen conditions experienced.

  5. Boundary conditions estimation of scoop dosimeter for primary sorting during earthworks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batij, V.G.; Pravdivyj, A.A.; Stoyanov, A.I.

    2005-01-01

    Simple method of radioactive waste first separation using collimated dosimeter, which is placed on boom of power shovel, is proposed, and separation process mathematic modeling for boundary conditions definition of sorting under 'Ukryttya' object high gamma background condition are carry out

  6. Estimating the Probability of Traditional Copying, Conditional on Answer-Copying Statistics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, Jeff; Ghattas, Andrew

    2016-06-01

    Statistics for detecting copying on multiple-choice tests produce p values measuring the probability of a value at least as large as that observed, under the null hypothesis of no copying. The posterior probability of copying is arguably more relevant than the p value, but cannot be derived from Bayes' theorem unless the population probability of copying and probability distribution of the answer-copying statistic under copying are known. In this article, the authors develop an estimator for the posterior probability of copying that is based on estimable quantities and can be used with any answer-copying statistic. The performance of the estimator is evaluated via simulation, and the authors demonstrate how to apply the formula using actual data. Potential uses, generalizability to other types of cheating, and limitations of the approach are discussed.

  7. Estimation of stream conditions in tributaries of the Klamath River, northern California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manhard, Christopher V.; Som, Nicholas A.; Jones, Edward C.; Perry, Russell W.

    2018-01-01

    Because of their critical ecological role, stream temperature and discharge are requisite inputs for models of salmonid population dynamics. Coho Salmon inhabiting the Klamath Basin spend much of their freshwater life cycle inhabiting tributaries, but environmental data are often absent or only seasonally available at these locations. To address this information gap, we constructed daily averaged water temperature models that used simulated meteorological data to estimate daily tributary temperatures, and we used flow differentials recorded on the mainstem Klamath River to estimate daily tributary discharge. Observed temperature data were available for fourteen of the major salmon bearing tributaries, which enabled estimation of tributary-specific model parameters at those locations. Water temperature data from six mid-Klamath Basin tributaries were used to estimate a global set of parameters for predicting water temperatures in the remaining tributaries. The resulting parameter sets were used to simulate water temperatures for each of 75 tributaries from 1980-2015. Goodness-of-fit statistics computed from a cross-validation analysis demonstrated a high precision of the tributary-specific models in predicting temperature in unobserved years and of the global model in predicting temperatures in unobserved streams. Klamath River discharge has been monitored by four gages that broadly intersperse the 292 kilometers from the Iron Gate Dam to the Klamath River mouth. These gages defined the upstream and downstream margins of three reaches. Daily discharge of tributaries within a reach was estimated from 1980-2015 based on drainage-area proportionate allocations of the discharge differential between the upstream and downstream margin. Comparisons with measured discharge on Indian Creek, a moderate-sized tributary with naturally regulated flows, revealed that the estimates effectively approximated both the variability and magnitude of discharge.

  8. Estimation of the total absorbed dose by quartz in retrospective conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Correcher, V.; Delgado, A.

    2003-01-01

    The estimation of the total absorbed dose is of great interest in areas affected by a radiological accident when no conventional dosimetric systems are available. This paper reports about the usual methodology employed in dose reconstruction from the thermoluminescence (TL) properties of natural quartz, extracted from selected ceramic materials (12 bricks) picked up in the Chernobyl area. It has been possible to evaluate doses under 50mGy after more than 11 years later since the radiological accident happened. The main advance of this fact is the reduction of the commonly accepted limit dose estimation more than 20 times employing luminescence methods. (Author) 11 refs

  9. Experimental study on the plant state estimation for the condition-based maintenance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harada, J. I.; Takahashi, M.; Kitamura, M.; Wakabayashi, T.

    2006-01-01

    A framework of maintenance support system based on the plant state estimation using diverse methods has been proposed and the validity of the plant state estimation methods has been experimentally evaluated. The focus has been set on the construction of the BN for the objective system with the scale and complexity as same as real world systems. Another focus has been set on the other functions for maintenance support system such as signal processing tool and similarity matching. The validity of the proposed inference method has been confirmed through numerical experiments. (authors)

  10. MODERN APPROACHES TO INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY COST ESTIMATION UNDER CRISIS CONDITIONS FROM CONSUMER QUALITY PRESERVATION VIEWPOINT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. N. Alexandrov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Various intellectual property (IP estimation approaches and innovations in this field are discussed. Problem situations and «bottlenecks» in the economic mechanism of transformation of innovations into useful products and services are defined. Main international IP evaluation methods are described, particular attention being paid to «Quick Inside» program defined as latest generation global expert system. IP income and expense evaluation methods used in domestic practice are discussed. Possibility of using the Black-Scholes optional model to estimate costs of non-material assets is studied.

  11. Influence of temporally variable groundwater flow conditions on point measurements and contaminant mass flux estimations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rein, Arno; Bauer, S; Dietrich, P

    2009-01-01

    Monitoring of contaminant concentrations, e.g., for the estimation of mass discharge or contaminant degradation rates. often is based on point measurements at observation wells. In addition to the problem, that point measurements may not be spatially representative. a further complication may ari...

  12. Estimation of N2O emission factors for soils depending on environmental conditions and crop management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lesschen, J.P.; Velthof, G.L.

    2009-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) contributes 8% to anthropogenic global warming, of which about one third are direct emissions of agricultural soils. These N2O emissions are often estimated using the default IPCC 2006 emission factor of 1% of the amount of N applied for mineral fertilizer, manure and crop

  13. Conditional estimation of exponential random graph models from snowball sampling designs

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pattison, Philippa E.; Robins, Garry L.; Snijders, Tom A. B.; Wang, Peng

    2013-01-01

    A complete survey of a network in a large population may be prohibitively difficult and costly. So it is important to estimate models for networks using data from various network sampling designs, such as link-tracing designs. We focus here on snowball sampling designs, designs in which the members

  14. Human Estimation of Slope, Distance, and Height of Terrain in Simulated Lunar Conditions

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Oravetz, Christopher

    2009-01-01

    .... These unique lunar conditions are expected to affect human perception: the lack of an atmosphere, the non-Lambertian regolith reflectance properties, the lack of familiar objects, and the physiological effects of reduced gravity...

  15. Estimation of the conditioning and storage costs of low- and intermediate-level solid radioactive wastes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo Moro, A.; Panciatici, G.

    1977-01-01

    The conditioning and storage costs of low- and intermediate-level solid radioactive wastes are analyzed. The cost of direct labour is assumed as the reference cost for their computation and the storage cost is considered as resulting from the contract cost ''una tantum'' and from the leasing cost. As an example, the cost trends are reported, relevant to the solution adopted at CAMEN (conditioning in concrete containers and storage on concrete open-air bed)

  16. Bias and precision of methods for estimating the difference in restricted mean survival time from an individual patient data meta-analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Béranger Lueza

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The difference in restricted mean survival time ( rmstD t ∗ $$ rmstD\\left({t}^{\\ast}\\right $$ , the area between two survival curves up to time horizon t ∗ $$ {t}^{\\ast } $$ , is often used in cost-effectiveness analyses to estimate the treatment effect in randomized controlled trials. A challenge in individual patient data (IPD meta-analyses is to account for the trial effect. We aimed at comparing different methods to estimate the rmstD t ∗ $$ rmstD\\left({t}^{\\ast}\\right $$ from an IPD meta-analysis. Methods We compared four methods: the area between Kaplan-Meier curves (experimental vs. control arm ignoring the trial effect (Naïve Kaplan-Meier; the area between Peto curves computed at quintiles of event times (Peto-quintile; the weighted average of the areas between either trial-specific Kaplan-Meier curves (Pooled Kaplan-Meier or trial-specific exponential curves (Pooled Exponential. In a simulation study, we varied the between-trial heterogeneity for the baseline hazard and for the treatment effect (possibly correlated, the overall treatment effect, the time horizon t ∗ $$ {t}^{\\ast } $$ , the number of trials and of patients, the use of fixed or DerSimonian-Laird random effects model, and the proportionality of hazards. We compared the methods in terms of bias, empirical and average standard errors. We used IPD from the Meta-Analysis of Chemotherapy in Nasopharynx Carcinoma (MAC-NPC and its updated version MAC-NPC2 for illustration that included respectively 1,975 and 5,028 patients in 11 and 23 comparisons. Results The Naïve Kaplan-Meier method was unbiased, whereas the Pooled Exponential and, to a much lesser extent, the Pooled Kaplan-Meier methods showed a bias with non-proportional hazards. The Peto-quintile method underestimated the rmstD t ∗ $$ rmstD\\left({t}^{\\ast}\\right $$ , except with non-proportional hazards at t ∗ $$ {t}^{\\ast } $$ = 5 years. In the presence of treatment effect

  17. Effects of ocean acidification on shell condition and survival of Puget Sound pteropods from laboratory experiment studies from 2012-05-10 to 2012-07-12 (NODC Accession 0125008)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This archival package contains laboratory experiment data that were collected to examine the effects of ocean acidification on shell condition and survival of Puget...

  18. Effects of milk components and food additives on survival of three bifidobacteria strains in fermented milk under simulated gastrointestinal tract conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Małgorzata Ziarno

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: In the dairy industry, probiotic strains of Bifidobacterium are introduced into the composition of traditional starter cultures intended for the production of fermented foods, or sometimes are the sole microflora responsible for the fermentation process. In order to be able to reach the intestines alive and fulfil their beneficial role, probiotic strains must be able to withstand the acidity of the gastric juices and bile present in the duodenum. Objective: The paper reports effects of selected fermented milk components on the viability of three strains of bifidobacteria in fermented milk during subsequent incubation under conditions representing model digestive juices. Design: The viability of the bifidobacterial cells was examined after a 3-h incubation of fermented milk under simulated gastric juice conditions and then after 5-h incubation under simulated duodenum juice conditions. The Bifidobacterium strains tested differed in their sensitivity to the simulated conditions of the gastrointestinal juices. Results: Bifidobacterial cell viability in simulated intestinal juices was dependent on the strain used in our experiments, and product components acted protectively towards bifidobacterial cells and its dose. Conclusions: Bifidobacterial cells introduced into the human gastrointestinal tract as food ingredients have a good chance of survival during intestinal transit and to reach the large intestine thanks to the protective properties of the food components and depending on the strain and composition of the food.

  19. Signal Conditioning for the Kalman Filter: Application to Satellite Attitude Estimation with Magnetometer and Sun Sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Esteban, Segundo; Girón-Sierra, Jose M; Polo, Óscar R; Angulo, Manuel

    2016-10-31

    Most satellites use an on-board attitude estimation system, based on available sensors. In the case of low-cost satellites, which are of increasing interest, it is usual to use magnetometers and Sun sensors. A Kalman filter is commonly recommended for the estimation, to simultaneously exploit the information from sensors and from a mathematical model of the satellite motion. It would be also convenient to adhere to a quaternion representation. This article focuses on some problems linked to this context. The state of the system should be represented in observable form. Singularities due to alignment of measured vectors cause estimation problems. Accommodation of the Kalman filter originates convergence difficulties. The article includes a new proposal that solves these problems, not needing changes in the Kalman filter algorithm. In addition, the article includes assessment of different errors, initialization values for the Kalman filter; and considers the influence of the magnetic dipole moment perturbation, showing how to handle it as part of the Kalman filter framework.

  20. Signal Conditioning for the Kalman Filter: Application to Satellite Attitude Estimation with Magnetometer and Sun Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Segundo Esteban

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Most satellites use an on-board attitude estimation system, based on available sensors. In the case of low-cost satellites, which are of increasing interest, it is usual to use magnetometers and Sun sensors. A Kalman filter is commonly recommended for the estimation, to simultaneously exploit the information from sensors and from a mathematical model of the satellite motion. It would be also convenient to adhere to a quaternion representation. This article focuses on some problems linked to this context. The state of the system should be represented in observable form. Singularities due to alignment of measured vectors cause estimation problems. Accommodation of the Kalman filter originates convergence difficulties. The article includes a new proposal that solves these problems, not needing changes in the Kalman filter algorithm. In addition, the article includes assessment of different errors, initialization values for the Kalman filter; and considers the influence of the magnetic dipole moment perturbation, showing how to handle it as part of the Kalman filter framework.

  1. Bilirubin glucuronidation revisited: proper assay conditions to estimate enzyme kinetics with recombinant UGT1A1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jin; Tracy, Timothy S; Remmel, Rory P

    2010-11-01

    Bilirubin, an end product of heme catabolism, is primarily eliminated via glucuronic acid conjugation by UGT1A1. Impaired bilirubin conjugation, caused by inhibition of UGT1A1, can result in clinical consequences, including jaundice and kernicterus. Thus, evaluation of the ability of new drug candidates to inhibit UGT1A1-catalyzed bilirubin glucuronidation in vitro has become common practice. However, the instability of bilirubin and its glucuronides presents substantial technical challenges to conduct in vitro bilirubin glucuronidation assays. Furthermore, because bilirubin can be diglucuronidated through a sequential reaction, establishment of initial rate conditions can be problematic. To address these issues, a robust high-performance liquid chromatography assay to measure both bilirubin mono- and diglucuronide conjugates was developed, and the incubation conditions for bilirubin glucuronidation by human embryonic kidney 293-expressed UGT1A1 were carefully characterized. Our results indicated that bilirubin glucuronidation should be assessed at very low protein concentrations (0.05 mg/ml protein) and over a short incubation time (5 min) to assure initial rate conditions. Under these conditions, bilirubin total glucuronide formation exhibited a hyperbolic (Michaelis-Menten) kinetic profile with a K(m) of ∼0.2 μM. In addition, under these initial rate conditions, the relative proportions between the total monoglucuronide and the diglucuronide product were constant across the range of bilirubin concentration evaluated (0.05-2 μM), with the monoglucuronide being the predominant species (∼70%). In conclusion, establishment of appropriate incubation conditions (i.e., very low protein concentrations and short incubation times) is necessary to properly characterize the kinetics of bilirubin glucuronidation in a recombinant UGT1A1 system.

  2. The Diffusion of Flexibility: Estimating the Incidence of Low-Regulated Working Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Allvin

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to determine the actual occurrences of flexible working conditions and to demonstrate an instrument for their assessment. Flexibility is discussed as a concept and defined in terms of deregulation of work, and a corresponding increase in self-government and ambiguity. Using empirical data from a national survey of the Swedish labor force, the results show that almost half (47% of the jobs on the Swedish labor market can be characterized as low, or even unregulated. This means that almost half of the Swedish work force is subjected to working conditions involving a nonnegligible requirement for self-government.

  3. Relationships between changes in Holstein cow’s body condition, acetone and urea content in milk and cervical mucus and sperm survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Beran

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationship between changes in Holstein cow’s body condition score (BCS, acetone and urea content in the milk and cervical mucus (CM and sperm survival in CM. At insemination, samples of milk and CM were collected from 64 Holstein cows. Content of acetone and urea were determined. Sperm motility was assessed subjectively at the beginning and after 30, 60 and 90 minutes of the short-term heat test in CM. Data about evaluation of cow’s BCS were taken from farm evidence. The data set was analyzed using SAS/STAT software. Effect of change in cow’s BCS one month before insemination was significant only in relation to the acetone content in milk (P < 0.05. Higher values of acetone and urea content were found in the CM compared to milk. Higher levels of both metabolites were detected in primiparous cows and in cows on the third and subsequent lactation, resp. in cows inseminated 3 times and more. The highest values of both metabolites negatively affected sperm survival during the short-term heat test, especially after 90 minutes (P < 0.05–0.01. Significant decreases (P < 0.05–0.01 were detected in cows with the highest level of acetone and urea.

  4. The effects of intermittent exposure to low pH and oxygen conditions on survival and growth of juvenile red abalone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, T. W.; Barry, J. P.; Micheli, F.

    2013-02-01

    Exposure of nearshore animals to hypoxic, low pH waters upwelled from below the continental shelf and advected near the coast may be stressful to marine organisms and lead to impaired physiological performance. We mimicked upwelling conditions in the laboratory and tested the effect of fluctuating exposure to water with low pH and/or low oxygen levels on the mortality and growth of juvenile red abalone (Haliotis rufescens, shell length 5-10 mm). Mortality rates of juvenile abalone exposed to low pH (7.5, total scale) and low O2 (40% saturation, 5 mg L-1) conditions for periods of 3 to 6 h every 3-5 days over 2 weeks did not differ from those exposed to control conditions (O2: 100% saturation, 12 mg L-1; pH 8.0). However, when exposure was extended to 24 h repeated twice over a 15 day period, juveniles experienced higher mortality in the low oxygen treatments compared to control conditions, regardless of pH levels (pH 7.5 vs. 8.0). Growth rates were reduced significantly when juveniles were exposed to low pH or low oxygen treatments and the growth was lowest when low pH exposure was combined with low O2. Furthermore, individual variation of growth rate increased when they were exposed to low pH and low O2 conditions. These results indicate that prolonged exposure to low oxygen levels is detrimental for the survival of red abalone, whereas both pH and oxygen is a crucial factor for their growth. However, given the higher individual variation in growth rate, they may have an ability to adapt to extended exposure to upwelling conditions.

  5. The effects of intermittent exposure to low-pH and low-oxygen conditions on survival and growth of juvenile red abalone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, T. W.; Barry, J. P.; Micheli, F.

    2013-11-01

    Exposure of nearshore animals to hypoxic, low-pH waters upwelled from below the continental shelf and advected near the coast may be stressful to marine organisms and lead to impaired physiological performance. We mimicked upwelling conditions in the laboratory and tested the effect of fluctuating exposure to water with low-pH and/or low-oxygen levels on the mortality and growth of juvenile red abalone (Haliotis rufescens, shell length 5-10 mm). Mortality rates of juvenile abalone exposed to low-pH (7.5, total scale) and low-O2 (40% saturation, mg L-1) conditions for periods of 3 to 6 h every 3-5 days over 2 weeks did not differ from those exposed to control conditions (O2: 100% saturation, 12 mg L-1; pH 8.0). However, when exposure was extended to 24 h, twice over a 15-day period, juveniles experienced 5-20% higher mortality in the low-oxygen treatments compared to control conditions. Growth rates were reduced significantly when juveniles were exposed to low-oxygen and low-pH treatments. Furthermore, individual variation of growth rate increased when juveniles were exposed simultaneously to low-pH and low-O2 conditions. These results indicate that prolonged exposure to low-oxygen levels is detrimental for the survival of red abalone, whereas pH is a crucial factor for their growth. However, the high individual variation in growth rate under low levels of both pH and oxygen suggests that cryptic phenotypic plasticity may promote resistance to prolonged upwelling conditions by a portion of the population.

  6. An expert system for diagnostics and estimation of steam turbine components condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murmansky, B. E.; Aronson, K. E.; Brodov, Yu. M.

    2017-11-01

    The report describes an expert system of probability type for diagnostics and state estimation of steam turbine technological subsystems components. The expert system is based on Bayes’ theorem and permits to troubleshoot the equipment components, using expert experience, when there is a lack of baseline information on the indicators of turbine operation. Within a unified approach the expert system solves the problems of diagnosing the flow steam path of the turbine, bearings, thermal expansion system, regulatory system, condensing unit, the systems of regenerative feed-water and hot water heating. The knowledge base of the expert system for turbine unit rotors and bearings contains a description of 34 defects and of 104 related diagnostic features that cause a change in its vibration state. The knowledge base for the condensing unit contains 12 hypotheses and 15 evidence (indications); the procedures are also designated for 20 state parameters estimation. Similar knowledge base containing the diagnostic features and faults hypotheses are formulated for other technological subsystems of turbine unit. With the necessary initial information available a number of problems can be solved within the expert system for various technological subsystems of steam turbine unit: for steam flow path it is the correlation and regression analysis of multifactor relationship between the vibration parameters variations and the regime parameters; for system of thermal expansions it is the evaluation of force acting on the longitudinal keys depending on the temperature state of the turbine cylinder; for condensing unit it is the evaluation of separate effect of the heat exchange surface contamination and of the presence of air in condenser steam space on condenser thermal efficiency performance, as well as the evaluation of term for condenser cleaning and for tube system replacement and so forth. With a lack of initial information the expert system enables to formulate a diagnosis

  7. Model-Based Load Estimation for Predictive Condition Monitoring of Wind Turbines

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perisic, Nevena; Pederen, Bo Juul; Grunnet, Jacob Deleuran

    signal is performed online, and a Load Indicator Signal (LIS) is formulated as a ratio between current estimated accumulated fatigue loads and its expected value based only on a priori knowledge (WTG dynamics and wind climate). LOT initialisation is based on a priori knowledge and can be obtained using...... programme for pre-maintenance actions. The performance of LOT is demonstrated by applying it to one of the most critical WTG components, the gearbox. Model-based load CMS for gearbox requires only standard WTG SCADA data. Direct measuring of gearbox fatigue loads requires high cost and low reliability...... measurement equipment. Thus, LOT can significantly reduce the price of load monitoring....

  8. The design and analysis of salmonid tagging studies in the Columbia basin. Volume 8: A new model for estimating survival probabilities and residualization from a release-recapture study of fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) smolts in the Snake River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lowther, A.B.; Skalski, J.

    1997-09-01

    Standard release-recapture analysis using Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) models to estimate survival probabilities between hydroelectric facilities for Snake river fall chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tschawytscha) ignore the possibility of individual fish residualizing and completing their migration in the year following tagging. These models do not utilize available capture history data from this second year and, thus, produce negatively biased estimates of survival probabilities. A new multinomial likelihood model was developed that results in biologically relevant, unbiased estimates of survival probabilities using the full two years of capture history data. This model was applied to 1995 Snake River fall chinook hatchery releases to estimate the true survival probability from one of three upstream release points (Asotin, Billy Creek, and Pittsburgh Landing) to Lower Granite Dam. In the data analyzed here, residualization is not a common physiological response and thus the use of CJS models did not result in appreciably different results than the true survival probability obtained using the new multinomial likelihood model

  9. A Novel Strain-Based Method to Estimate Tire Conditions Using Fuzzy Logic for Intelligent Tires

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Garcia-Pozuelo

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The so-called intelligent tires are one of the most promising research fields for automotive engineers. These tires are equipped with sensors which provide information about vehicle dynamics. Up to now, the commercial intelligent tires only provide information about inflation pressure and their contribution to stability control systems is currently very limited. Nowadays one of the major problems for intelligent tire development is how to embed feasible and low cost sensors to obtain reliable information such as inflation pressure, vertical load or rolling speed. These parameters provide key information for vehicle dynamics characterization. In this paper, we propose a novel algorithm based on fuzzy logic to estimate the mentioned parameters by means of a single strain-based system. Experimental tests have been carried out in order to prove the suitability and durability of the proposed on-board strain sensor system, as well as its low cost advantages, and the accuracy of the obtained estimations by means of fuzzy logic.

  10. Estimation of the Hiroshima bomb yield and weather conditions at the time of the bomb

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tajima, Eizo

    1984-01-01

    The results of the survey made immediately after the bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki were compiled in Collection of Reports on the Investigation of the Atomic Bomb Casualties published in 1953. Much valuable information for the reassessment of dose are included in this document. One of the major problems to be solved for the dose reassessment is the yield of the Hiroshima bomb. Two articles with relatively detailed description were selected, and the estimation of the yield was attempted, based on them. The data on roof tile melting were used for the purpose. Assuming the yield of the Nagasaki bomb as 22 kt, the yield of the Hiroshima bomb was given as 12.4 kt. By the experiment using the charred state of cypress boards, the total radiant energy from the bomb was calculated as 4.6 x 10 12 cal, and the yield of the Hiroshima bomb was estimated as 14.2 kt and 13.2 kt. The true value is likely between 12 and 13 kt. The vapor pressure at the time of bombing significantly affected the neutron spectrum. On the day of bombing, Japan was covered by hot, humid maritime air mass, namely summer monsoon pattern. The air density and water vapor content in the atmosphere were determined by the Japan Weather Association, and compared with the data of Dr. Kerr et al. (Kako, I.)

  11. Estimation of the risks of stochastic effects attributable to the radiological conditions in Tbilisi

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vepkhvadze, N.R.; Gelashvili, K.D.; Kiladze, N.A.

    1997-01-01

    Radiation background in Tbilisi City has been studied; collective and annual average statistic dozes have been ascertained, parameters of stochastic effects' (cancerogenic, genetic) risks caused by low dozes of ionizing radiation have been calculated. From 21 cases of total risk 7 are stipulated by genetic defects, 14 - by lethal malignant tumor. The conclusion is that we should not expect important changes in health condition of population caused by existing in Tbilisi City radiation background. (author)

  12. Estimation of the Tool Condition by Applying the Wavelet Transform to Acoustic Emission Signals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, M. P.; Piotrkowski, R.; Ruzzante, J. E.; D'Attellis, C. E.

    2007-01-01

    This work follows the search of parameters to evaluate the tool condition in machining processes. The selected sensing technique is acoustic emission and it is applied to a turning process of steel samples. The obtained signals are studied using the wavelet transformation. The tool wear level is quantified as a percentage of the final wear specified by the Standard ISO 3685. The amplitude and relevant scale obtained of acoustic emission signals could be related with the wear level

  13. A Comparison of Conditional Volatility Estimators for the ISE National 100 Index Returns

    OpenAIRE

    Köksal, Bülent

    2009-01-01

    We compare more than 1000 different volatility models in terms of their fit to the historical ISE-100 Index data and their forecasting performance of the conditional variance in an out-of-sample setting. Exponential GARCH model of Nelson (1991) with “constant mean, t-distribution, one lag moving average term” specification achieves the best overall performance for modeling the ISE-100 return volatility. The t-distribution seems to characterize the distribution of the heavy tailed returns bett...

  14. Degradation and performance evaluation of PV module in desert climate conditions with estimate uncertainty in measuring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fezzani Amor

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of photovoltaic (PV module is affected by outdoor conditions. Outdoor testing consists installing a module, and collecting electrical performance data and climatic data over a certain period of time. It can also include the study of long-term performance under real work conditions. Tests are operated in URAER located in desert region of Ghardaïa (Algeria characterized by high irradiation and temperature levels. The degradation of PV module with temperature and time exposure to sunlight contributes significantly to the final output from the module, as the output reduces each year. This paper presents a comparative study of different methods to evaluate the degradation of PV module after a long term exposure of more than 12 years in desert region and calculates uncertainties in measuring. Firstly, this evaluation uses three methods: Visual inspection, data given by Solmetric PVA-600 Analyzer translated at Standard Test Condition (STC and based on the investigation results of the translation equations as ICE 60891. Secondly, the degradation rates calculated for all methods. Finally, a comparison between a degradation rates given by Solmetric PVA-600 analyzer, calculated by simulation model and calculated by two methods (ICE 60891 procedures 1, 2. We achieved a detailed uncertainty study in order to improve the procedure and measurement instrument.

  15. Short communication: Jersey × Holstein crossbreds compared with pure Holsteins for body weight, body condition score, fertility, and survival during the first three lactations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heins, B J; Hansen, L B; Hazel, A R; Seykora, A J; Johnson, D G; Linn, J G

    2012-07-01

    Crossbred cows (n=80) resulting from the use of Jersey (JE) semen on their pure Holstein (HO) dams were compared with pure HO cows (n=77) for body weight, body condition score, fertility, and survival during their first 3 lactations. Cows were in 2 research herds of the University of Minnesota and calved from September 2003 to June 2008. The JE × HO crossbred cows had significantly less body weight during the first (-56 kg), second (-67 kg), and third (-82 kg) lactations than pure HO cows. However, JE × HO cows had significantly greater body condition score during the first (2.94 vs. 2.84), second (2.97 vs. 2.84), and third (2.99 vs. 2.87) lactations than pure HO cows. For fertility, JE × HO cows had fewer days to first breeding during the first (-10.6d), second (-8.4d), and third (-12.3d) lactations than pure HO cows. Crossbred cows were not significantly different from pure HO cows for number of services during first lactation; however, JE × HO cows had significantly fewer services (2.2) than pure HO cows (2.7) during the second lactation. Also, JE × HO cows had significantly fewer days open than pure HO cows in the first (-24 d), second (-42 d), and third (-42 d) lactations. For survival, JE × HO cows were not significantly different from pure HO cows for percentage of cows calving a second time; however, a tendency existed for a higher percentage of JE × HO cows (63.8%) than pure HO cows (49.4%) to calve a third time, and a higher percentage of JE × HO cows calved a third time within 28, 34, and 40 mo of first calving than pure HO cows. Copyright © 2012 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Evaluating Wharton’s Jelly-Derived Mesenchymal Stem Cell’s Survival, Migration, and Expression of Wound Repair Markers under Conditions of Ischemia-Like Stress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iris Himal

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The efficacy of mesenchymal stem cell (MSC therapy is currently limited by low retention and poor survival of transplanted cells as demonstrated by clinical studies. This is mainly due to the harsh microenvironment created by oxygen and nutrient deprivation and inflammation at the injured sites. The choice of MSC source could be critical in determining fate and cellular function of MSCs under stress. Our objective here was to investigate the influence of ischemia-like stress on Wharton’s jelly MSCs (WJ-MSCs from human umbilical cord to assess their therapeutic relevance in ischemic diseases. We simulated conditions of ischemia in vitro by culturing WJ-MSCs in 2% oxygen in serum deprived and low glucose medium. Under these conditions, WJ-MSCs retained viable population of greater than 80%. They expressed the characteristic MSC surface antigens at levels comparable to the control WJ-MSCs and were negative for the expression of costimulatory molecules. An upregulation of many ECM and adhesion molecules and growth and angiogenic factors contributing to wound healing and regeneration was noted in the ischemic WJ-MSC population by a PCR array. Their migration ability, however, got impaired. Our findings provide evidence that WJ-MSCs might be therapeutically beneficial and potent in healing wounds under ischemic conditions.

  17. Estimating time-varying conditional correlations between stock and foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tastan, Hüseyin

    2006-02-01

    This study explores the dynamic interaction between stock market returns and changes in nominal exchange rates. Many financial variables are known to exhibit fat tails and autoregressive variance structure. It is well-known that unconditional covariance and correlation coefficients also vary significantly over time and multivariate generalized autoregressive model (MGARCH) is able to capture the time-varying variance-covariance matrix for stock market returns and changes in exchange rates. The model is applied to daily Euro-Dollar exchange rates and two stock market indexes from the US economy: Dow-Jones Industrial Average Index and S&P500 Index. The news impact surfaces are also drawn based on the model estimates to see the effects of idiosyncratic shocks in respective markets.

  18. Stochastic Estimation Methods for Induction Motor Transient Thermal Monitoring Under Non Linear Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mellah HACEN

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The induction machine, because of its robustness and low-cost, is commonly used in the industry. Nevertheless, as every type of electrical machine, this machine suffers of some limitations. The most important one is the working temperature which is the dimensioning parameter for the definition of the nominal working point and the machine lifetime. Due to a strong demand concerning thermal monitoring methods appeared in the industry sector. In this context, the adding of temperature sensors is not acceptable and the studied methods tend to use sensorless approaches such as observators or parameters estimators like the extended Kalman Filter (EKF. Then the important criteria are reliability, computational cost ad real time implementation.

  19. Mapping land water and energy balance relations through conditional sampling of remote sensing estimates of atmospheric forcing and surface states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farhadi, Leila; Entekhabi, Dara; Salvucci, Guido

    2016-04-01

    In this study, we develop and apply a mapping estimation capability for key unknown parameters that link the surface water and energy balance equations. The method is applied to the Gourma region in West Africa. The accuracy of the estimation method at point scale was previously examined using flux tower data. In this study, the capability is scaled to be applicable with remotely sensed data products and hence allow mapping. Parameters of the system are estimated through a process that links atmospheric forcing (precipitation and incident radiation), surface states, and unknown parameters. Based on conditional averaging of land surface temperature and moisture states, respectively, a single objective function is posed that measures moisture and temperature-dependent errors solely in terms of observed forcings and surface states. This objective function is minimized with respect to parameters to identify evapotranspiration and drainage models and estimate water and energy balance flux components. The uncertainty of the estimated parameters (and associated statistical confidence limits) is obtained through the inverse of Hessian of the objective function, which is an approximation of the covariance matrix. This calibration-free method is applied to the mesoscale region of Gourma in West Africa using multiplatform remote sensing data. The retrievals are verified against tower-flux field site data and physiographic characteristics of the region. The focus is to find the functional form of the evaporative fraction dependence on soil moisture, a key closure function for surface and subsurface heat and moisture dynamics, using remote sensing data.

  20. Near-infrared Raman spectroscopy for estimating biochemical changes associated with different pathological conditions of cervix

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Amuthachelvi; Prakasarao, Aruna; Ganesan, Singaravelu

    2018-02-01

    The molecular level changes associated with oncogenesis precede the morphological changes in cells and tissues. Hence molecular level diagnosis would promote early diagnosis of the disease. Raman spectroscopy is capable of providing specific spectral signature of various biomolecules present in the cells and tissues under various pathological conditions. The aim of this work is to develop a non-linear multi-class statistical methodology for discrimination of normal, neoplastic and malignant cells/tissues. The tissues were classified as normal, pre-malignant and malignant by employing Principal Component Analysis followed by Artificial Neural Network (PC-ANN). The overall accuracy achieved was 99%. Further, to get an insight into the quantitative biochemical composition of the normal, neoplastic and malignant tissues, a linear combination of the major biochemicals by non-negative least squares technique was fit to the measured Raman spectra of the tissues. This technique confirms the changes in the major biomolecules such as lipids, nucleic acids, actin, glycogen and collagen associated with the different pathological conditions. To study the efficacy of this technique in comparison with histopathology, we have utilized Principal Component followed by Linear Discriminant Analysis (PC-LDA) to discriminate the well differentiated, moderately differentiated and poorly differentiated squamous cell carcinoma with an accuracy of 94.0%. And the results demonstrated that Raman spectroscopy has the potential to complement the good old technique of histopathology.

  1. Performance analysis of the lineal model for estimating the maximum power of a HCPV module in different climate conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández, Eduardo F.; Almonacid, Florencia; Sarmah, Nabin; Mallick, Tapas; Sanchez, Iñigo; Cuadra, Juan M.; Soria-Moya, Alberto; Pérez-Higueras, Pedro

    2014-09-01

    A model based on easily obtained atmospheric parameters and on a simple lineal mathematical expression has been developed at the Centre of Advanced Studies in Energy and Environment in southern Spain. The model predicts the maximum power of a HCPV module as a function of direct normal irradiance, air temperature and air mass. Presently, the proposed model has only been validated in southern Spain and its performance in locations with different atmospheric conditions still remains unknown. In order to address this issue, several HCPV modules have been measured in two different locations with different climate conditions than the south of Spain: the Environment and Sustainability Institute in southern UK and the National Renewable Energy Center in northern Spain. Results show that the model has an adequate match between actual and estimated data with a RMSE lower than 3.9% at locations with different climate conditions.

  2. Artificial neural networks based estimation of optical parameters by diffuse reflectance imaging under in vitro conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahmut Ozan Gökkan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Optical parameters (properties of tissue-mimicking phantoms are determined through noninvasive optical imaging. Objective of this study is to decompose obtained diffuse reflectance into these optical properties such as absorption and scattering coefficients. To do so, transmission spectroscopy is firstly used to measure the coefficients via an experimental setup. Next, the optical properties of each characterized phantom are input for Monte Carlo (MC simulations to get diffuse reflectance. Also, a surface image for each single phantom with its known optical properties is obliquely captured due to reflectance-based geometrical setup using CMOS camera that is positioned at 5∘ angle to the phantoms. For the illumination of light, a laser light source at 633nm wavelength is preferred, because optical properties of different components in a biological tissue on that wavelength are nonoverlapped. During in vitro measurements, we prepared 30 different mixture samples adding clinoleic intravenous lipid emulsion (CILE and evans blue (EB dye into a distilled water. Finally, all obtained diffuse reflectance values are used to estimate the optical coefficients by artificial neural networks (ANNs in inverse modeling. For a biological tissue it is found that the simulated and measured values in our results are in good agreement.

  3. Estimating Regional Scale Hydroclimatic Risk Conditions from the Soil Moisture Active-Passive (SMAP Satellite

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Catherine Champagne

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Satellite soil moisture is a critical variable for identifying susceptibility to hydroclimatic risks such as drought, dryness, and excess moisture. Satellite soil moisture data from the Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP mission was used to evaluate the sensitivity to hydroclimatic risk events in Canada. The SMAP soil moisture data sets in general capture relative moisture trends with the best estimates from the passive-only derived soil moisture and little difference between the data at different spatial resolutions. In general, SMAP data sets overestimated the magnitude of moisture at the wet extremes of wetting events. A soil moisture difference from average (SMDA was calculated from SMAP and historical Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS data showed a relatively good delineation of hydroclimatic risk events, although caution must be taken due to the large variability in the data within risk categories. Satellite soil moisture data sets are more sensitive to short term water shortages than longer term water deficits. This was not improved by adding “memory” to satellite soil moisture indices to improve the sensitivity of the data to drought, and there is a large variability in satellite soil moisture values with the same drought severity rating.

  4. ASURV: Astronomical SURVival Statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feigelson, E. D.; Nelson, P. I.; Isobe, T.; LaValley, M.

    2014-06-01

    ASURV (Astronomical SURVival Statistics) provides astronomy survival analysis for right- and left-censored data including the maximum-likelihood Kaplan-Meier estimator and several univariate two-sample tests, bivariate correlation measures, and linear regressions. ASURV is written in FORTRAN 77, and is stand-alone and does not call any specialized libraries.

  5. Extreme Sea Conditions in Shallow Water: Estimation based on in-situ measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Crom, Izan; Saulnier, Jean-Baptiste

    2013-04-01

    The design of marine renewable energy devices and components is based, among others, on the assessment of the environmental extreme conditions (winds, currents, waves, and water level) that must be combined together in order to evaluate the maximal loads on a floating/fixed structure, and on the anchoring system over a determined return period. Measuring devices are generally deployed at sea over relatively short durations (a few months to a few years), typically when describing water free surface elevation, and extrapolation methods based on hindcast data (and therefore on wave simulation models) have to be used. How to combine, in a realistic way, the action of the different loads (winds and waves for instance) and which correlation of return periods should be used are highly topical issues. However, the assessment of the extreme condition itself remains a not-fully-solved, crucial, and sensitive task. Above all in shallow water, extreme wave height, Hmax, is the most significant contribution in the dimensioning process of EMR devices. As a case study, existing methodologies for deep water have been applied to SEMREV, the French marine energy test site. The interest of this study, especially at this location, goes beyond the simple application to SEMREV's WEC and floating wind turbines deployment as it could also be extended to the Banc de Guérande offshore wind farm that are planned close by. More generally to pipes and communication cables as it is a redundant problematic. The paper will first present the existing measurements (wave and wind on site), the prediction chain that has been developed via wave models, the extrapolation methods applied to hindcast data, and will try to formulate recommendations for improving this assessment in shallow water.

  6. Global estimation of areas with suitable environmental conditions for mariculture species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammed A Oyinlola

    Full Text Available Aquaculture has grown rapidly over the last three decades expanding at an average annual growth rate of 5.8% (2005-2014, down from 8.8% achieved between 1980 and 2010. The sector now produces 44% of total food fish production. Increasing demand and consumption from a growing global population are driving further expansion of both inland and marine aquaculture (i.e., mariculture, including marine species farmed on land. However, the growth of mariculture is dependent on the availability of suitable farming areas for new facilities, particularly for open farming practices that rely on the natural oceanic environmental parameters such as temperature, oxygen, chlorophyll etc. In this study, we estimated the marine areas within the exclusive economic zones of all countries that were suitable for potential open ocean mariculture activities. To this end, we quantify the environmental niche and inferred the global habitat suitability index (HSI of the 102 most farmed marine species using four species distribution models. The average weighted HSI across the four models suggests that 72,000,000 km2 of ocean are to be environmentally suitable to farm one or more species. About 92% of the predicted area (66,000,000 km2 is environmentally suitable for farming finfish, 43% (31,000,000 km2 for molluscs and 54% (39,000,000 km2 for crustaceans. These predictions do not consider technological feasibility that can limit crustaceans farming in open waters. Suitable mariculture areas along the Atlantic coast of South America and West Africa appear to be most under-utilized for farming. Our results suggest that factors other than environmental considerations such as the lack of socio-economic and technological capacity, as well as aqua feed supply are currently limiting the potential for mariculture expansion in many areas.

  7. Estimate of the economic impact of mastitis: A case study in a Holstein dairy herd under tropical conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guimarães, Juliana L B; Brito, Maria A V P; Lange, Carla C; Silva, Márcio R; Ribeiro, João B; Mendonça, Letícia C; Mendonça, Juliana F M; Souza, Guilherme N

    2017-07-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate the economic impact of mastitis at the herd level and the weight (percent) of the components of this impact in a Holstein dairy herd under tropical conditions. Three estimates of the economic impact of mastitis were performed. In estimates 1 and 2 the real production and economic indices from February 2011 to January 2012 were considered. In the estimate 1, indices for mastitis classified as ideal were considered, whereas in the estimate 2, the mastitis indices used were those recorded at the farm and at Holstein Cattle Association of Minas Gerais State database (real indices). Ideal mastitis indices were bulk milk somatic cell counts less than 250,000 cells/mL, incidence of clinical mastitis less than 25 cases/100 cows/year, number of culls due to udder health problems less than 5% and the percentage of cows with somatic cell counts greater than 200,000 cells/mL less than 20%. Considering the ideal indices of mastitis, the economic impact was US$19,132.35. The three main components of the economic impact were culling cows (39.4%) and the reduction in milk production due to subclinical and clinical mastitis (32.3% and 18.2%, respectively). Estimate 2 using real mastitis indices showed an economic impact of US$61,623.13 and the reduction in milk production due to mastitis (77.7%) and milk disposal (14.0%) were the most relevant components. The real impact of culling cows was approximately 16 times less than the weight that was considered ideal, indicating that this procedure could have been more frequently adopted. The reduction in milk production was 27.2% higher than the reduction in Estimate 1, indicating a need to control and prevent mastitis. The estimate 3 considered the same indices as estimate 2, but for the period from February 2012 to January 2013. Its economic impact was US$91,552.69. During this period, 161 treatments of cows with an intramammary antibiotic were performed to eliminate Streptococcus agalactiae, and

  8. m-AAA Complexes Are Not Crucial for the Survival of Arabidopsis Under Optimal Growth Conditions Despite Their Importance for Mitochondrial Translation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziejczak, Marta; Skibior-Blaszczyk, Renata; Janska, Hanna

    2018-05-01

    For optimal mitochondrial activity, the mitochondrial proteome must be properly maintained or altered in response to developmental and environmental stimuli. Based on studies of yeast and humans, one of the key players in this control are m-AAA proteases, mitochondrial inner membrane-bound ATP-dependent metalloenzymes. This study focuses on the importance of m-AAA proteases in plant mitochondria, providing their first experimentally proven physiological substrate. We found that the Arabidopsis m- AAA complexes composed of AtFTSH3 and/or AtFTSH10 are involved in the proteolytic maturation of ribosomal subunit L32. Consequently, in the double Arabidopsis ftsh3/10 mutant, mitoribosome biogenesis, mitochondrial translation and functionality of OXPHOS (oxidative phosphorylation) complexes are impaired. However, in contrast to their mammalian or yeast counterparts, plant m-AAA complexes are not critical for the survival of Arabidopsis under optimal conditions; ftsh3/10 plants are only slightly smaller in size at the early developmental stage compared with plants containing m-AAA complexes. Our data suggest that a lack of significant visible morphological alterations under optimal growth conditions involves mechanisms which rely on existing functional redundancy and induced functional compensation in Arabidopsis mitochondria.

  9. Estimating sea-level allowances for Atlantic Canada under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Greenan

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This paper documents the methodology of computing sea-level rise allowances for Atlantic Canada in the 21st century under conditions of uncertain sea-level rise. The sea-level rise allowances are defined as the amount by which an asset needs to be raised in order to maintain the same likelihood of future flooding events as that site has experienced in the recent past. The allowances are determined by combination of the statistics of present tides and storm surges (storm tides and the regional projections of sea-level rise and associated uncertainty. Tide-gauge data for nine sites from the Canadian Atlantic coast are used to derive the scale parameters of present sea-level extremes using the Gumbel distribution function. The allowances in the 21st century, with respect to the year 1990, were computed for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC A1FI emission scenario. For Atlantic Canada, the allowances are regionally variable and, for the period 1990–2050, range between –13 and 38 cm while, for the period 1990–2100, they range between 7 and 108 cm. The negative allowances in the northern Gulf of St. Lawrence region are caused by land uplift due to glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA.

  10. Detection of UV Pulse from Insulators and Application in Estimating the Conditions of Insulators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingang; Chong, Junlong; Yang, Jie

    2014-10-01

    Solar radiation in the band of 240-280 nm is absorbed by the ozone layer in the atmosphere, and corona discharges from high-voltage apparatus emit in air mainly in the 230-405 nm range of ultraviolet (UV), so the band of 240-280 nm is called UV Solar Blind Band. When the insulators in a string deteriorate or are contaminated, the voltage distribution along the string will change, which causes the electric fields in the vicinity of insulators change and corona discharge intensifies. An UV pulse detection method to check the conditions of insulators is presented based on detecting the UV pulse among the corona discharge, then it can be confirmed that whether there exist faulty insulators and whether the surface contamination of insulators is severe for the safe operation of power systems. An UV-I Insulator Detector has been developed, and both laboratory tests and field tests have been carried out which demonstrates the practical viability of UV-I Insulator Detector for online monitoring.

  11. Conditions of deep magma chamber beneath Fuji volcano estimated from high- P experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asano, K.; Takahashi, E.; Hamada, M.; Ushioda, M.; Suzuki, T.

    2012-12-01

    Fuji volcano, the largest in volume and eruption rate in Japan, is located at the center of Honshu, where North America, Eurasia and Philippine Sea plates meets. Because of the significance of Fuji volcano both in tectonic settings and potential volcanic hazard (particularly after the M9 earthquake in 2011), precise knowledge on its magma feeding system is essentially important. Composition of magma erupted from Fuji volcano in the last 100ky is predominantly basalt (SiO2=50-52wt%, FeO/MgO=1.5-3.0). Total lack of silica-rich magma (basaltic andesite and andesite) which are always present in other nearby volcanoes (e.g., Hakone, Izu-Oshima, see Fig.1) is an important petrologic feature of Fuji volcano. Purpose of this study is to constrain the depth of magma chamber of Fuji volcano and explain its silica-nonenrichment trend. High pressure melting experiments were carried out using two IHPVs at the Magma Factory, Tokyo Institute of Technology (SMC-5000 and SMC-8600, Tomiya et al., 2010). Basalt scoria Tr-1 which represents the final ejecta of Hoei eruption in AD1707, was adopted as a starting material. At 4kbar, temperature conditions were 1050, 1100 and 1150C, and H2O contents were 1.3, 2.7 and 4.7 wt.%, respectively. At 7kbar, temperature conditions were 1075, 1100 and 1125C, and H2O contents were 1.0, 1.1, 3.6 and 6.3wt.%, respectively. The fO2 was controlled at NNO buffer. At 4kbar, crystallization sequence at 3 wt% H2O is magnetite, plagioclase, clinopyroxene and finally orthopyroxene. At 7 kbar, and ~3 wt% H2O, the three minerals (opx, cpx, pl) appears simultaneously near the liquidus. Compositional trend of melt at 4 kbar and 7 kbar are shown with arrows in Fig.1. Because of the dominant crystallization of silica-rich opx at 7 kbar, composition of melt stays in the range SiO2=50-52wt% as predicted by Fujii (2007). Absence of silica-rich rocks in Fuji volcano may be explained by the tectonic setting of the volcano. Because Fuji volcano locates on the plate

  12. Diagnosis of Heat Exchanger Tube Failure in Fossil Fuel Boilers Through Estimation of Steady State Operating Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herszage, A.; Toren, M.

    1998-01-01

    Estimation of operating conditions for fossil fuel boiler heat exchangers is often required due to changes in working conditions, design modifications and especially for monitoring performance and failure diagnosis. Regular heat exchangers in fossil fuel boilers are composed of tube banks through which water or steam flow, while hot combustion (flue) gases flow outside the tubes. This work presents a top-down approach to operating conditions estimation based on field measurements. An example for a 350 MW unit superheater is thoroughly discussed. Integral calculations based on measurements for all unit heat exchangers (reheaters, superheaters) were performed first. Based on these calculations a scheme of integral conservation equations (lumped parameter) was then formulated at the single tube level. Steady state temperatures of superheater tube walls were obtained as a main output, and were compared to the maximum allowable operating temperatures of the tubes material. A combined lumped parameter - CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics, FLUENT code) approach constitutes an efficient tool in certain cases. A brief report of such a case is given for another unit superheater. We conclude that steady state evaluations based on both integral and detailed simulations are a valuable monitoring and diagnosis tool for the power generation industry

  13. The effect of claw horn disruption lesions and body condition score at dry-off on survivability, reproductive performance, and milk production in the subsequent lactation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Machado, V S; Caixeta, L S; McArt, J A A; Bicalho, R C

    2010-09-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL; sole ulcers and white line disease) and body condition score (BCS) at dry-off on survivability, milk production, and reproductive performance during the subsequent lactation. An observational prospective cohort study was conducted on a large commercial dairy in Cayuga County, New York, from September 2008 until January 2009. A total of 573 cows enrolled at dry-off were scored for body condition and hoof trimmed; digits were visually inspected for the presence of CHDL. The BCS data were recategorized into a 3-level variable BCS group (BCSG), with cows with BCS3 placed in BCSG 3 (n=206). Cows in BCSG 2 were 1.35 and 1.02 times more likely to conceive than cows in BCSG 1 and 3, respectively. The cull/death hazard for BCSG 1 cows was 1.55 and 1.47 times higher than for cows in BCSG 2 and BCSG 3, respectively. Milk yield for cows in BCSG 2 (44.6 kg/d, 95% CI 43.4-45.8) was significantly greater than that for cows in BCSG 1 (41.5 kg/d, 95% CI 39.8-43.3). Cows with previous lactation days open14,054 kg had a similar 1.6 times higher odds of being classified into BCSG 1. Claw horn disruption lesions were found in 24.4% of the cows (n=140) at dry-off. Cows without CHDL were 1.4 times more likely to conceive than cows with CHDL. Additionally, lesion cows were 1.7 times more likely to die or be culled than nonlesion cows. Absence of CHDL did not have a significant effect on milk yield. These findings highlight the importance of claw health and BCS at the end of lactation on future survival and performance. Copyright (c) 2010 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. A heteroskedastic error covariance matrix estimator using a first-order conditional autoregressive Markov simulation for deriving asympotical efficient estimates from ecological sampled Anopheles arabiensis aquatic habitat covariates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Githure John I

    2009-09-01

    values from the spatial configuration matrices were then used to define expectations for prior distributions using a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC algorithm. A set of posterior means were defined in WinBUGS 1.4.3®. After the model had converged, samples from the conditional distributions were used to summarize the posterior distribution of the parameters. Thereafter, a spatial residual trend analyses was used to evaluate variance uncertainty propagation in the model using an autocovariance error matrix. Results By specifying coefficient estimates in a Bayesian framework, the covariate number of tillers was found to be a significant predictor, positively associated with An. arabiensis aquatic habitats. The spatial filter models accounted for approximately 19% redundant locational information in the ecological sampled An. arabiensis aquatic habitat data. In the residual error estimation model there was significant positive autocorrelation (i.e., clustering of habitats in geographic space based on log-transformed larval/pupal data and the sampled covariate depth of habitat. Conclusion An autocorrelation error covariance matrix and a spatial filter analyses can prioritize mosquito control strategies by providing a computationally attractive and feasible description of variance uncertainty estimates for correctly identifying clusters of prolific An. arabiensis aquatic habitats based on larval/pupal productivity.

  15. Value Premium and Country Risk as Dimensions to Estimate Conditional Returns: a Study of the Brazilian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilian de Castro Medeiros

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Asset pricing is a widely explored theme in the financial literature. Nevertheless, the phenomenon of value premium is still controversial, since although easily detected in developed and emerging markets, little is know about the economic forces that explain its existence. In this context, this article examines value premium in the Brazilian market and investigates the influence of the country risk variable as an additional risk factor for estimating conditional returns in this market not captured by value premium. For that, we employ a five-factor model, formulated by adding the country risk factor to the model of Carhart (1997. We apply the statistical procedure adopted by Fama & French (1993 to the period between 1994 and 2012, with data on nonfinancial companies listed on the BM&FBovespa. The results confirm the existence of value premium in the Brazilian market, and country risk and value premium together are significant factors to explain conditional returns.

  16. Adjusting survival time estimates to account for treatment switching in randomized controlled trials--an economic evaluation context: methods, limitations, and recommendations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latimer, Nicholas R; Abrams, Keith R; Lambert, Paul C; Crowther, Michael J; Wailoo, Allan J; Morden, James P; Akehurst, Ron L; Campbell, Michael J

    2014-04-01

    Treatment switching commonly occurs in clinical trials of novel interventions in the advanced or metastatic cancer setting. However, methods to adjust for switching have been used inconsistently and potentially inappropriately in health technology assessments (HTAs). We present recommendations on the use of methods to adjust survival estimates in the presence of treatment switching in the context of economic evaluations. We provide background on the treatment switching issue and summarize methods used to adjust for it in HTAs. We discuss the assumptions and limitations associated with adjustment methods and draw on results of a simulation study to make recommendations on their use. We demonstrate that methods used to adjust for treatment switching have important limitations and often produce bias in realistic scenarios. We present an analysis framework that aims to increase the probability that suitable adjustment methods can be identified on a case-by-case basis. We recommend that the characteristics of clinical trials, and the treatment switching mechanism observed within them, should be considered alongside the key assumptions of the adjustment methods. Key assumptions include the "no unmeasured confounders" assumption associated with the inverse probability of censoring weights (IPCW) method and the "common treatment effect" assumption associated with the rank preserving structural failure time model (RPSFTM). The limitations associated with switching adjustment methods such as the RPSFTM and IPCW mean that they are appropriate in different scenarios. In some scenarios, both methods may be prone to bias; "2-stage" methods should be considered, and intention-to-treat analyses may sometimes produce the least bias. The data requirements of adjustment methods also have important implications for clinical trialists.

  17. Microbes in nature are limited by carbon and energy: the starving-survival lifestyle in soil and consequences for estimating microbial rates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John Eyres Hobbie

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available Understanding microbial transformations in soils is important for predicting future carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling. This review questions some methods of assessing one key microbial process, the uptake of labile organic compounds. First, soil microbes have a starving-survival life style of dormancy, arrested activity, and low activity. Yet they are very abundant and remain poised to completely take up all substrates that become available. As a result, dilution assays with the addition of labeled substrates cannot be used. When labeled substrates are transformed into 14CO2, the first part of the biphasic release follows metabolic rules and is not affected by the environment. As a consequence, when identical amounts of isotopically substrates are added to soils from different climate zones, the same percentage of the substrate is respired and the same half-life of the respired 14CO2 from the labeled substrate is estimated. Second, when soils are sampled by a variety of methods from taking 10 cm diameter cores to millimeter-scale dialysis chambers, amino acids (and other organic compounds appear to be released by the severing of fine roots and mycorrhizal networks as well as from pressing or centrifuging treatments. As a result of disturbance as well as of natural root release, concentrations of individual amino acids of ~10 µM are measured. This contrasts with concentrations of a few nM found in aquatic systems and raises questions about possible differences in the bacterial strategy between aquatic and soil ecosystems. The small size of the hyphae (2-10 μm diameter and of the fine roots (0.2 to 2 mm diameter, make it very difficult to sample any volume of soil without introducing artifacts. Third, when micromolar amounts of labeled amino acids are added to soil, some of the isotope enters plant roots. This may be an artifact of the high µM concentrations applied.

  18. Microbes in nature are limited by carbon and energy: the starving-survival lifestyle in soil and consequences for estimating microbial rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hobbie, John E; Hobbie, Erik A

    2013-01-01

    Understanding microbial transformations in soils is important for predicting future carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling. This review questions some methods of assessing one key microbial process, the uptake of labile organic compounds. First, soil microbes have a starving-survival life style of dormancy, arrested activity, and low activity. Yet they are very abundant and remain poised to completely take up all substrates that become available. As a result, dilution assays with the addition of labeled substrates cannot be used. When labeled substrates are transformed into (14)CO2, the first part of the biphasic release follows metabolic rules and is not affected by the environment. As a consequence, when identical amounts of isotopically substrates are added to soils from different climate zones, the same percentage of the substrate is respired and the same half-life of the respired (14)CO2 from the labeled substrate is estimated. Second, when soils are sampled by a variety of methods from taking 10 cm diameter cores to millimeter-scale dialysis chambers, amino acids (and other organic compounds) appear to be released by the severing of fine roots and mycorrhizal networks as well as from pressing or centrifuging treatments. As a result of disturbance as well as of natural root release, concentrations of individual amino acids of ~10 μM are measured. This contrasts with concentrations of a few nanomolar found in aquatic systems and raises questions about possible differences in the bacterial strategy between aquatic and soil ecosystems. The small size of the hyphae (2-10 μm diameter) and of the fine roots (0.2-2 mm diameter), make it very difficult to sample any volume of soil without introducing artifacts. Third, when micromolar amounts of labeled amino acids are added to soil, some of the isotope enters plant roots. This may be an artifact of the high micromolar concentrations applied.

  19. Radiation Dose Estimates in Indian Adults in Normal and Pathological Conditions due to 99Tcm-Labelled Radiopharmaceuticals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tyagi, K.; Jain, S.C.; Jain, P.C.

    2001-01-01

    ICRP Publications 53, 62 and 80 give organ dose coefficients and effective doses to ICRP Reference Man and Child from established nuclear medicine procedures. However, an average Indian adult differs significantly from the ICRP Reference Man as regards anatomical, physiological and metabolic characteristics, and is also considered to have different tissue weighting factors (called here risk factors). The masses of total body and most organs are significantly lower for the Indian adult than for his ICRP counterpart (e.g. body mass 52 and 70 kg respectively). Similarly, the risk factors are lower by 20-30% for 8 out of the 13 organs and 30-60% higher for 3 organs. In the present study, available anatomical data of Indians and their risk factors have been utilised to estimate the radiation doses from administration of commonly used 99 Tc m -labelled radiopharmaceuticals under normal and certain pathological conditions. The following pathological conditions have been considered for phosphates/phosphonates - high bone uptake and severely impaired kidney function; IDA - parenchymal liver disease, occlusion of cystic duct, and occlusion of bile duct; DTPA - abnormal renal function; large colloids - early to intermediate diffuse parenchymal liver disease, intermediate to advanced parenchymal liver disease; small colloids - early to intermediate parenchymal liver disease, intermediate to advanced parenchymal liver disease; and MAG3 - abnormal renal function, acute unilateral renal blockage. The estimated 'effective doses' to Indian adults are 14-21% greater than the ICRP value from administration of the same activity of radiopharmaceutical under normal physiological conditions based on anatomical considerations alone, because of the smaller organ masses for the Indian; for some pathological conditions the effective doses are 11-22% more. When tissue risk factors are considered in addition to anatomical considerations, the estimated effective doses are still found to be

  20. Comparison of estimated core body temperature measured with the BioHarness and rectal temperature under several heat stress conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Yongsuk; DiLeo, Travis; Powell, Jeffrey B; Kim, Jung-Hyun; Roberge, Raymond J; Coca, Aitor

    2016-08-01

    Monitoring and measuring core body temperature is important to prevent or minimize physiological strain and cognitive dysfunction for workers such as first responders (e.g., firefighters) and military personnel. The purpose of this study is to compare estimated core body temperature (Tco-est), determined by heart rate (HR) data from a wearable chest strap physiology monitor, to standard rectal thermometry (Tre) under different conditions.  Tco-est and Tre measurements were obtained in thermoneutral and heat stress conditions (high temperature and relative humidity) during four different experiments including treadmill exercise, cycling exercise, passive heat stress, and treadmill exercise while wearing personal protective equipment (PPE).  Overall, the mean Tco-est did not differ significantly from Tre across the four conditions. During exercise at low-moderate work rates under heat stress conditions, Tco-est was consistently higher than Tre at all-time points. Tco-est underestimated temperature compared to Tre at rest in heat stress conditions and at a low work rate under heat stress while wearing PPE. The mean differences between the two measurements ranged from -0.1 ± 0.4 to 0.3 ± 0.4°C and Tco-est correlated well with HR (r = 0.795 - 0.849) and mean body temperature (r = 0.637 - 0.861).  These results indicate that, the comparison of Tco-est to Tre may result in over- or underestimation which could possibly lead to heat-related illness during monitoring in certain conditions. Modifications to the current algorithm should be considered to address such issues.

  1. Conditional estimation of local pooled dispersion parameter in small-sample RNA-Seq data improves differential expression test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gim, Jungsoo; Won, Sungho; Park, Taesung

    2016-10-01

    High throughput sequencing technology in transcriptomics studies contribute to the understanding of gene regulation mechanism and its cellular function, but also increases a need for accurate statistical methods to assess quantitative differences between experiments. Many methods have been developed to account for the specifics of count data: non-normality, a dependence of the variance on the mean, and small sample size. Among them, the small number of samples in typical experiments is still a challenge. Here we present a method for differential analysis of count data, using conditional estimation of local pooled dispersion parameters. A comprehensive evaluation of our proposed method in the aspect of differential gene expression analysis using both simulated and real data sets shows that the proposed method is more powerful than other existing methods while controlling the false discovery rates. By introducing conditional estimation of local pooled dispersion parameters, we successfully overcome the limitation of small power and enable a powerful quantitative analysis focused on differential expression test with the small number of samples.

  2. Improving Estimation of Evapotranspiration under Water-Limited Conditions Based on SEBS and MODIS Data in Arid Regions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunlin Huang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This study proposes a method for improving the estimation of surface turbulent fluxes in surface energy balance system (SEBS model under water stress conditions using MODIS data. The normalized difference water index (NDWI as an indicator of water stress is integrated into SEBS. To investigate the feasibility of the new approach, the desert-oasis region in the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB is selected as the study area. The proposed model is calibrated with meteorological and flux data over 2008–2011 at the Yingke station and is verified with data from 16 stations of the Heihe Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (HiWATER project in 2012. The results show that soil moisture significantly affects evapotranspiration (ET under water stress conditions in the study area. Adding the NDWI in SEBS can significantly improve the estimations of surface turbulent fluxes in water-limited regions, especially for spare vegetation cover area. The daily ET maps generated by the new model also show improvements in drylands with low ET values. This study demonstrates that integrating the NDWI into SEBS as an indicator of water stress is an effective way to improve the assessment of the regional ET in semi-arid and arid regions.

  3. Efficacy of bi-component cocrystals and simple binary eutectics screening using heat of mixing estimated under super cooled conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cysewski, Piotr

    2016-07-01

    The values of excess heat characterizing sets of 493 simple binary eutectic mixtures and 965 cocrystals were estimated under super cooled liquid condition. The application of a confusion matrix as a predictive analytical tool was applied for distinguishing between the two subsets. Among seven considered levels of computations the BP-TZVPD-FINE approach was found to be the most precise in terms of the lowest percentage of misclassified positive cases. Also much less computationally demanding AM1 and PM7 semiempirical quantum chemistry methods are likewise worth considering for estimation of the heat of mixing values. Despite intrinsic limitations of the approach of modeling miscibility in the solid state, based on components affinities in liquids under super cooled conditions, it is possible to define adequate criterions for classification of coformers pairs as simple binary eutectics or cocrystals. The predicted precision has been found as 12.8% what is quite accepted, bearing in mind simplicity of the approach. However, tuning theoretical screening to such precision implies the exclusion of many positive cases and this wastage exceeds 31% of cocrystals classified as false negatives. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Estimating Housing Vacancy Rate in Qingdao City with Npp-Viirs Nighttime Light and Geographical National Conditions Monitoring Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, X.

    2018-04-01

    Accompanying China's rapid urbanization in recent decades, especially in the new millennium, the housing problem has become one of the most important issues. The estimation and analysis of housing vacancy rate (HVR) can assist decision-making in solving this puzzle. It is particularly significant to government departments. This paper proposed a practical model for estimating the HVR in Qingdao city using NPP-VIIRS nighttime light composed data, Geographic National Conditions Monitoring data (GNCMD) and resident population distribution data. The main steps are: Firstly, pre-process the data, and finally forming a series of data sets with 500*500 grid as the basic unit; Secondly, select 400 grids of different types within the city as sample grids for SVM training, and establish a reasonable HVR model; Thirdly, using the model to estimate HVR in Qingdao and employing spatial statistical analysis methods to reveal the spatial differentiation pattern of HVR in this city; Finally test the accuracy of the model with two different methods. The results conclude that HVR in the southeastern coastal area of Qingdao city is relatively low and the low-low clusters distributed in patches. Simultaneously, in other regions it shows the tendency of the low value accumulation in the downtown area and the increasing trend towards the outer suburbs. Meanwhile the suburban and scenery regions by the side of the sea and mountains are likely to be the most vacant part of the city.

  5. CONFLICT MANAGEMENT CRISIS THE SITUATION IN ORDER TO FORM THE PROPERTIES OF THE COMMERCIAL ORGANIZATION IN THE CONDITIONS OF MARKET: SURVIVAL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. V. Sаmоilоv

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The need for conflict management in crisis poses questions about the decision of the leaders of emerging new challenges and dialogue in the team. Ignoring conflicts that arise in the collective unacceptable, because it can lead to wrong actions in the administration. Therefore, conflicts must be analyzed from the standpoint of the theory of organization, considering it as a set of relationships between organizational units. The experience of conflict resolution points to a sequence of actions for constructive management. The article discusses the strategy of effective interventions by the manager on the conflicts (personnel manager or psychologist for the purpose of settlement, and provides a sequence of structuring the conflict in block diagram form. In a crisis, the organization to minimize the time for conflict resolution is one of the most important requirements for its effective overcoming. In a crisis, the organization to minimize the time for conflict resolution is one of the most important requirements for its effective overcoming. Direction of action discussed above consultant on crisis management issues, refer to the table. The proposed approach of conflict resolution in crisis mode, considering the direction of formation of such an important organization in the commercial property market conditions as the survival rate. However, the manager of the proposed expansion of differentiated arsenal of interventions in the inevitable conflicts between organizational units.

  6. Evaluating the condition of a mangrove forest of the Mexican Pacific based on an estimated leaf area index mapping approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, J M; King, J M L; Flores de Santiago, F; Flores-Verdugo, F

    2009-10-01

    Given the alarming global rates of mangrove forest loss it is important that resource managers have access to updated information regarding both the extent and condition of their mangrove forests. Mexican mangroves in particular have been identified as experiencing an exceptional high annual rate of loss. However, conflicting studies, using remote sensing techniques, of the current state of many of these forests may be hindering all efforts to conserve and manage what remains. Focusing on one such system, the Teacapán-Agua Brava-Las Haciendas estuarine-mangrove complex of the Mexican Pacific, an attempt was made to develop a rapid method of mapping the current condition of the mangroves based on estimated LAI. Specifically, using an AccuPAR LP-80 Ceptometer, 300 indirect in situ LAI measurements were taken at various sites within the black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) dominated forests of the northern section of this system. From this sample, 225 measurements were then used to develop linear regression models based on their relationship with corresponding values derived from QuickBird very high resolution optical satellite data. Specifically, regression analyses of the in situ LAI with both the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the simple ration (SR) vegetation index revealed significant positive relationships [LAI versus NDVI (R (2) = 0.63); LAI versus SR (R (2) = 0.68)]. Moreover, using the remaining sample, further examination of standard errors and of an F test of the residual variances indicated little difference between the two models. Based on the NDVI model, a map of estimated mangrove LAI was then created. Excluding the dead mangrove areas (i.e. LAI = 0), which represented 40% of the total 30.4 km(2) of mangrove area identified in the scene, a mean estimated LAI value of 2.71 was recorded. By grouping the healthy fringe mangrove with the healthy riverine mangrove and by grouping the dwarf mangrove together with the poor condition

  7. Methow River Studies, Washington: abundance estimates from Beaver Creek and the Chewuch River screw trap, methodology testing in the Whitefish Island side channel, and survival and detection estimates from hatchery fish releases, 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, Kyle D.; Fish, Teresa M.; Watson, Grace A.; Connolly, Patrick J.

    2014-01-01

    , leaving one large pool near the bottom of the side channel and several shallow isolated pools that may or may not go dry. In seasonally connected side channels, juvenile salmonid survival in pools less than 100 cm average depth was lower than in pools greater than 100 cm average depth (Martens and Connolly, 2014). In this report, we document our field work and analysis completed in 2013. During 2013, USGS sampling efforts were focused on resampling of three reaches in Beaver Creek, testing methodology in the Whitefish Island side channel, conducting hatchery survival estimates, and operating a screw trap on the Chewuch River (funded by Yakama Nation; fig. 1). The Beaver Creek sampling effort was a revisit of three index sites sampled continuously from 2004 to 2007 to look at the fish response to barrier removal. Methodology testing in Whitefish Island side channel was done to determine the best method for evaluating fish populations after restoration efforts in side channels (previous sampling methods were determined to be ineffective after pools were deepened). Hatchery survival estimates were completed to monitor fish survival in the Methow and Columbia Rivers, while the screw trap was operated to estimate migrating fish populations in the Chewuch River and track passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagged fish. In addition, we maintained a network of PIT-tag interrogation systems (PTIS), assisted Reclamation with fish removal events associated with stream restoration (two people for 9 days; 14 percent of summer field season), and conducted a stream metabolism study designed to help parameterize and calibrate the stream productivity model (Bellmore and others, 2014) with model validation.

  8. Soymilk residue (okara) as a natural immobilization carrier for Lactobacillus plantarum cells enhances soymilk fermentation, glucosidic isoflavone bioconversion, and cell survival under simulated gastric and intestinal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiudong, Xia; Ying, Wang; Xiaoli, Liu; Ying, Li; Jianzhong, Zhou

    2016-01-01

    stresses in vitro that included low pH, low pH plus pepsin, pancreatin, and bile salt. Our results indicate that okara is a new potential immobilization carrier to enhance the growth and glucosidic isoflavone bioconversion activities of L. plantarum in soymilk and improve cell survivability following simulated gastric and intestinal conditions.

  9. Soymilk residue (okara as a natural immobilization carrier for Lactobacillus plantarum cells enhances soymilk fermentation, glucosidic isoflavone bioconversion, and cell survival under simulated gastric and intestinal conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xia Xiudong

    2016-11-01

    intestinal stresses in vitro that included low pH, low pH plus pepsin, pancreatin, and bile salt. Our results indicate that okara is a new potential immobilization carrier to enhance the growth and glucosidic isoflavone bioconversion activities of L. plantarum in soymilk and improve cell survivability following simulated gastric and intestinal conditions.

  10. Model parameters conditioning on regional hydrologic signatures for process-based design flood estimation in ungauged basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biondi, Daniela; De Luca, Davide Luciano

    2015-04-01

    making and in hydraulic design. The obtained results highlight the relevant impact of uncertainty in regional estimates of hydrological signatures on posterior parameters distribution and on uncertainty bounds of simulated peak discharges. The results of the continuous simulation, generally, better matched those of the statistical flood frequency analysis, thus this approach is recommended for the flood frequency analysis in the study area. REFERENCES Biondi D, Claps P, Cruscomagno F, De Luca DL, Fiorentino M, Ganora D, Gioia A, Iacobellis V, Laio F, Manfreda S, Versace P (2012). Dopo il VAPI: la valutazione delle massime portate al colmo di piena nell'esperienza del POR Calabria (in Italian). Proceedings of XXXIII Italian National Conference on Hydraulics and Hydraulic Engineering, Brescia - Italy, 10-15 September 2012. Bulygina N, McIntyre N, Wheater HS (2009). Conditioning rainfall- runoff model parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 13:893-904. doi:10.5194/hess-13-893-2009. Bulygina N, McIntyre N, Wheater H (2011). Bayesian conditioning of a rainfall-runoff model for predicting flows in ungauged catchments and under land use changes. Water Resour Res 47: W02503. doi:10.1029/2010WR009240. Gupta HV, Wagener T, Liu Y (2008). Reconciling theory with observations: elements of a diagnostic approach to model evaluation. Hydrol Process 22: 3802-3813. doi:10.1002/hyp.6989. Laio F, Ganora D, Claps P, Galeati G (2011). Spatially smooth regional estimation of the flood frequency curve (with uncertainty). J Hydrol 408: 67-77.

  11. Survival of spores of the UV-resistant Bacillus subtilis strain MW01 after exposure to low-earth orbit and simulated martian conditions: data from the space experiment ADAPT on EXPOSE-E.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wassmann, Marko; Moeller, Ralf; Rabbow, Elke; Panitz, Corinna; Horneck, Gerda; Reitz, Günther; Douki, Thierry; Cadet, Jean; St