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Sample records for conditional logit model

  1. Airport Choice in Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: An Application of the Conditional Logit Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, Marcelo Baena; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    Using the conditional LOGIT model, this paper addresses the airport choice in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area. In this region, Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) and Congonhas Airport (CGH) compete for passengers flying to several domestic destinations. The airport choice is believed to be a result of the tradeoff passengers perform considering airport access characteristics, airline level of service characteristics and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. It was found that access time to the airports better explain the airport choice than access distance, whereas direct flight frequencies gives better explanation to the airport choice than the indirect (connections and stops) and total (direct plus indirect) flight frequencies. Out of 15 tested variables, passenger experience with the analyzed airports was the variable that best explained the airport choice in the region. Model specifications considering 1, 2 or 3 variables were tested. The model specification most adjusted to the observed data considered access time, direct flight frequencies in the travel period (morning or afternoon peak) and passenger experience with the analyzed airports. The influence of these variables was therefore analyzed across market segments according to departure airport and flight duration criteria. The choice of GRU (located neighboring Sao Paulo city) is not well explained by the rationality of access time economy and the increase of the supply of direct flight frequencies, while the choice of CGH (located inside Sao Paulo city) is. Access time was found to be more important to passengers flying shorter distances while direct flight frequencies in the travel period were more significant to those flying longer distances. Keywords: Airport choice, Multiple airport region, Conditional LOGIT model, Access time, Flight frequencies, Passenger experience with the analyzed airports, Transportation planning

  2. Sequential and Simultaneous Logit: A Nested Model.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ophem, J.C.M.; Schram, A.J.H.C.

    1997-01-01

    A nested model is presented which has both the sequential and the multinomial logit model as special cases. This model provides a simple test to investigate the validity of these specifications. Some theoretical properties of the model are discussed. In the analysis a distribution function is

  3. Interpreting Results from the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there see...... suitable for both interpretation and communication of results. The pratical steps are illustrated through an application of the MLM to the choice of foreign market entry mode.......This article provides guidelines and illustrates practical steps necessary for an analysis of results from the multinomial logit model (MLM). The MLM is a popular model in the strategy literature because it allows researchers to examine strategic choices with multiple outcomes. However, there seem...... to be systematic issues with regard to how researchers interpret their results when using the MLM. In this study, I present a set of guidelines critical to analyzing and interpreting results from the MLM. The procedure involves intuitive graphical representations of predicted probabilities and marginal effects...

  4. Ordered LOGIT Model approach for the determination of financial distress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinay, B

    2010-01-01

    Nowadays, as a result of the global competition encountered, numerous companies come up against financial distresses. To predict and take proactive approaches for those problems is quite important. Thus, the prediction of crisis and financial distress is essential in terms of revealing the financial condition of companies. In this study, financial ratios relating to 156 industrial firms that are quoted in the Istanbul Stock Exchange are used and probabilities of financial distress are predicted by means of an ordered logit regression model. By means of Altman's Z Score, the dependent variable is composed by scaling the level of risk. Thus, a model that can compose an early warning system and predict financial distress is proposed.

  5. Spatial age-length key modelling using continuation ratio logits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Berg, Casper W.; Kristensen, Kasper

    2012-01-01

    -called age-length key (ALK) is then used to obtain the age distribution. Regional differences in ALKs are not uncommon, but stratification is often problematic due to a small number of samples. Here, we combine generalized additive modelling with continuation ratio logits to model the probability of age...

  6. STAS and Logit Modeling of Advertising and Promotion Effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Flemming; Yssing Hansen, Lotte; Grønholdt, Lars

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the preliminary studies of the effect of advertising and promotion on purchases using the British single-source database Adlab. STAS and logit modeling are the two measures studied. Results from the two measures have been compared to determine the extent to which, they give...

  7. A nested recursive logit model for route choice analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mai, Tien; Frejinger, Emma; Fosgerau, Mogens

    2015-01-01

    choices and the model does not require any sampling of choice sets. Furthermore, the model can be consistently estimated and efficiently used for prediction.A key challenge lies in the computation of the value functions, i.e. the expected maximum utility from any position in the network to a destination....... The value functions are the solution to a system of non-linear equations. We propose an iterative method with dynamic accuracy that allows to efficiently solve these systems.We report estimation results and a cross-validation study for a real network. The results show that the NRL model yields sensible......We propose a route choice model that relaxes the independence from irrelevant alternatives property of the logit model by allowing scale parameters to be link specific. Similar to the recursive logit (RL) model proposed by Fosgerau et al. (2013), the choice of path is modeled as a sequence of link...

  8. Total, Direct, and Indirect Effects in Logit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders; Breen, Richard

    It has long been believed that the decomposition of the total effect of one variable on another into direct and indirect effects, while feasible in linear models, is not possible in non-linear probability models such as the logit and probit. In this paper we present a new and simple method...... average partial effects, as defined by Wooldridge (2002). We present the method graphically and illustrate it using the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988...

  9. Interpreting Marginal Effects in the Multinomial Logit Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wulff, Jesper

    2014-01-01

    with a substantial increase in the probability of entering a foreign market using a joint venture, while increases in the unpredictability in the host country environment are associated with a lower probability of wholly owned subsidiaries and a higher probability of exporting entries....... that have entered foreign markets. Through the application of a multinomial logit model, careful analysis of the marginal effects is performed through graphical representations, marginal effects at the mean, average marginal effects and elasticities. I show that increasing cultural distance is associated......This paper presents the challenges when researchers interpret results about relationships between variables from discrete choice models with multiple outcomes. The recommended approach is demonstrated by testing predictions from transaction cost theory on a sample of 246 Scandinavian firms...

  10. Analysis of Internet Usage Intensity in Iraq: An Ordered Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Almas Heshmati; Firas H. Al-Hammadany; Ashraf Bany-Mohammed

    2013-01-01

    Intensity of Internet use is significantly influenced by government policies, people’s levels of income, education, employment and general development and economic conditions. Iraq has very low Internet usage levels compared to the region and the world. This study uses an ordered logit model to analyse the intensity of Internet use in Iraq. The results showed that economic reasons (internet cost and income level) were key cause for low level usage intensity rates. About 68% of the population ...

  11. Essays on pricing dynamics, price dispersion, and nested logit modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verlinda, Jeremy Alan

    The body of this dissertation comprises three standalone essays, presented in three respective chapters. Chapter One explores the possibility that local market power contributes to the asymmetric relationship observed between wholesale costs and retail prices in gasoline markets. I exploit an original data set of weekly gas station prices in Southern California from September 2002 to May 2003, and take advantage of highly detailed station and local market-level characteristics to determine the extent to which spatial differentiation influences price-response asymmetry. I find that brand identity, proximity to rival stations, bundling and advertising, operation type, and local market features and demographics each influence a station's predicted asymmetric relationship between prices and wholesale costs. Chapter Two extends the existing literature on the effect of market structure on price dispersion in airline fares by modeling the effect at the disaggregate ticket level. Whereas past studies rely on aggregate measures of price dispersion such as the Gini coefficient or the standard deviation of fares, this paper estimates the entire empirical distribution of airline fares and documents how the shape of the distribution is determined by market structure. Specifically, I find that monopoly markets favor a wider distribution of fares with more mass in the tails while duopoly and competitive markets exhibit a tighter fare distribution. These findings indicate that the dispersion of airline fares may result from the efforts of airlines to practice second-degree price discrimination. Chapter Three adopts a Bayesian approach to the problem of tree structure specification in nested logit modelling, which requires a heavy computational burden in calculating marginal likelihoods. I compare two different techniques for estimating marginal likelihoods: (1) the Laplace approximation, and (2) reversible jump MCMC. I apply the techniques to both a simulated and a travel mode

  12. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ko Kawada

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation. The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive and CARS (negative. Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive.

  13. Street Choice Logit Model for Visitors in Shopping Districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawada, Ko; Yamada, Takashi; Kishimoto, Tatsuya

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we propose two models for predicting people’s activity. The first model is the pedestrian distribution prediction (or postdiction) model by multiple regression analysis using space syntax indices of urban fabric and people distribution data obtained from a field survey. The second model is a street choice model for visitors using multinomial logit model. We performed a questionnaire survey on the field to investigate the strolling routes of 46 visitors and obtained a total of 1211 street choices in their routes. We proposed a utility function, sum of weighted space syntax indices, and other indices, and estimated the parameters for weights on the basis of maximum likelihood. These models consider both street networks, distance from destination, direction of the street choice and other spatial compositions (numbers of pedestrians, cars, shops, and elevation). The first model explains the characteristics of the street where many people tend to walk or stay. The second model explains the mechanism underlying the street choice of visitors and clarifies the differences in the weights of street choice parameters among the various attributes, such as gender, existence of destinations, number of people, etc. For all the attributes considered, the influences of DISTANCE and DIRECTION are strong. On the other hand, the influences of Int.V, SHOPS, CARS, ELEVATION, and WIDTH are different for each attribute. People with defined destinations tend to choose streets that “have more shops, and are wider and lower”. In contrast, people with undefined destinations tend to choose streets of high Int.V. The choice of males is affected by Int.V, SHOPS, WIDTH (positive) and CARS (negative). Females prefer streets that have many shops, and couples tend to choose downhill streets. The behavior of individual persons is affected by all variables. The behavior of people visiting in groups is affected by SHOP and WIDTH (positive). PMID:25379274

  14. Unobserved Heterogeneity in the Binary Logit Model with Cross-Sectional Data and Short Panels

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Anders; Jæger, Mads Meier; Pedersen, Morten

    This paper proposes a new approach to dealing with unobserved heterogeneity in applied research using the binary logit model with cross-sectional data and short panels. Unobserved heterogeneity is particularly important in non-linear regression models such as the binary logit model because, unlike...... in linear regression models, estimates of the effects of observed independent variables are biased even when omitted independent variables are uncorrelated with the observed independent variables. We propose an extension of the binary logit model based on a finite mixture approach in which we conceptualize...

  15. Interpreting and Understanding Logits, Probits, and other Non-Linear Probability Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breen, Richard; Karlson, Kristian Bernt; Holm, Anders

    2018-01-01

    Methods textbooks in sociology and other social sciences routinely recommend the use of the logit or probit model when an outcome variable is binary, an ordered logit or ordered probit when it is ordinal, and a multinomial logit when it has more than two categories. But these methodological...... guidelines take little or no account of a body of work that, over the past 30 years, has pointed to problematic aspects of these nonlinear probability models and, particularly, to difficulties in interpreting their parameters. In this chapterreview, we draw on that literature to explain the problems, show...

  16. Modelling Stochastic Route Choice Behaviours with a Closed-Form Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A closed-form mixed Logit approach is proposed to model the stochastic route choice behaviours. It combines both the advantages of Probit and Logit to provide a flexible form in alternatives correlation and a tractable form in expression; besides, the heterogeneity in alternative variance can also be addressed. Paths are compared by pairs where the superiority of the binary Probit can be fully used. The Probit-based aggregation is also used for a nested Logit structure. Case studies on both numerical and empirical examples demonstrate that the new method is valid and practical. This paper thus provides an operational solution to incorporate the normal distribution in route choice with an analytical expression.

  17. An integrated Markov decision process and nested logit consumer response model of air ticket pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lu, J.; Feng, T.; Timmermans, H.P.J.; Yang, Z.

    2017-01-01

    The paper attempts to propose an optimal air ticket pricing model during the booking horizon by taking into account passengers' purchasing behavior of air tickets. A Markov decision process incorporating a nested logit consumer response model is established to modeling the dynamic pricing process.

  18. DETEKSI DINI KRISIS PERBANKAN INDONESIA: IDENTIFIKASI VARIABEL MAKRO DENGAN MODEL LOGIT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shanty Oktavilia

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia suffered from banking crisis for several times. It was the effect of the worst crisis occurredin 1997. Actually, Bath Thailand which plunged into 27,8% at the third quarter of the year 1997 was thebeginning problem that caused Asia currency crisis. This study analyzes the influence of macro indicatoras an early warning system by using logit econometrics model for predicting the possibilities of bankingcrisis that may occur in Indonesia.Kewords: Banking Crisis, macro economic indicator, EWS-logit model

  19. Analysis of RIA standard curve by log-logistic and cubic log-logit models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yamada, Hideo; Kuroda, Akira; Yatabe, Tami; Inaba, Taeko; Chiba, Kazuo

    1981-01-01

    In order to improve goodness-of-fit in RIA standard analysis, programs for computing log-logistic and cubic log-logit were written in BASIC using personal computer P-6060 (Olivetti). Iterative least square method of Taylor series was applied for non-linear estimation of logistic and log-logistic. Hear ''log-logistic'' represents Y = (a - d)/(1 + (log(X)/c)sup(b)) + d As weights either 1, 1/var(Y) or 1/σ 2 were used in logistic or log-logistic and either Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 , Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /var(Y), or Y 2 (1 - Y) 2 /σ 2 were used in quadratic or cubic log-logit. The term var(Y) represents squares of pure error and σ 2 represents estimated variance calculated using a following equation log(σ 2 + 1) = log(A) + J log(y). As indicators for goodness-of-fit, MSL/S sub(e)sup(2), CMD% and WRV (see text) were used. Better regression was obtained in case of alpha-fetoprotein by log-logistic than by logistic. Cortisol standard curve was much better fitted with cubic log-logit than quadratic log-logit. Predicted precision of AFP standard curve was below 5% in log-logistic in stead of 8% in logistic analysis. Predicted precision obtained using cubic log-logit was about five times lower than that with quadratic log-logit. Importance of selecting good models in RIA data processing was stressed in conjunction with intrinsic precision of radioimmunoassay system indicated by predicted precision. (author)

  20. Another Look at the Method of Y-Standardization in Logit and Probit Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    2015-01-01

    This paper takes another look at the derivation of the method of Y-standardization used in sociological analysis involving comparisons of coefficients across logit or probit models. It shows that the method can be derived under less restrictive assumptions than hitherto suggested. Rather than...

  1. Logit Estimation of a Gravity Model of the College Enrollment Decision.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leppel, Karen

    1993-01-01

    A study investigated the factors influencing students' decisions about attending a college to which they had been admitted. Logit analysis confirmed gravity model predictions that geographic distance and student ability would most influence the enrollment decision and found other variables, although affecting earlier stages of decision making, did…

  2. Associating Crash Avoidance Maneuvers with Driver Attributes and Accident Characteristics: A Mixed Logit Model Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    as from the key role of the ability of drivers to perform effective corrective maneuvers for the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that accommodates correlations across alternatives and heteroscedasticity. Data...

  3. Mixed logit model of intended residential mobility in renovated historical blocks in China

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jiang, W.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Li, H.; Feng, T.

    2016-01-01

    Using data from 8 historical blocks in China, the influence of socialdemographic characteristics and residential satisfaction on intended residentialmobility is analysed. The results of a mixed logit model indicate that higher residential satisfaction will lead to a lower intention to move house,

  4. Valuing Non-market Benefits of Rehabilitation of Hydrologic Cycle Improvements in the Anyangcheon Watershed: Using Mixed Logit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoo, J.; Kong, K.

    2010-12-01

    This research the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with the Anyangcheon watershed improvements in Rep. of Korea. The Anyangcheon watershed has suffered from streamflow depletion and poor stream quality, which often negatively affect instream and near-stream ecologic integrity, as well as water supply. Such distortions in the hydrologic cycle mainly result from rapid increase of impermeable area due to urbanization, decreases of baseflow runoff due to groundwater pumping, and reduced precipitation inputs driven by climate forcing. As well, combined sewer overflows and increase of non-point source pollution from urban regions decrease water quality. The appeal of choice experiments (CE) in economic analysis is that it is based on random utility theory (McFadden, 1974; Ben-Akiva and Lerman, 1985). In contrast to contingent valuation method (CVM), which asks people to choose between a base case and a specific alternative, CE asks people to choice between cases that are described by attributes. The attributes of this study were selected from hydrologic vulnerability components that represent flood damage possibility, instreamflow depletion, water quality deterioration, form of the watershed and tax. Their levels were divided into three grades include status quo. Two grades represented the ideal conditions. These scenarios were constructed from a 35 orthogonal main effect design. This design resulted in twenty-seven choice sets. The design had nine different choice scenarios presented to each respondent. The most popular choice models in use are the conditional logit (CNL). This model provides closed-form choice probability calculation. The shortcoming of CNL comes from irrelevant alternatives (IIA). In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) is applied to allow the coefficient’s variation for random taste heterogeneity in the population. The mixed logit model(with normal distributions for the attributes) fit the

  5. Study on Emission Measurement of Vehicle on Road Based on Binomial Logit Model

    OpenAIRE

    Aly, Sumarni Hamid; Selintung, Mary; Ramli, Muhammad Isran; Sumi, Tomonori

    2011-01-01

    This research attempts to evaluate emission measurement of on road vehicle. In this regard, the research develops failure probability model of vehicle emission test for passenger car which utilize binomial logit model. The model focuses on failure of CO and HC emission test for gasoline cars category and Opacity emission test for diesel-fuel cars category as dependent variables, while vehicle age, engine size, brand and type of the cars as independent variables. In order to imp...

  6. An Empirical Analysis of Television Commercial Ratings in Alternative Competitive Environments Using Multinomial Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dilek ALTAŞ

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Watching the commercials depends on the choice of the viewer. Most of the television viewing takes place during “Prime-Time” unfortunately; many viewers opt to zap to other channels when commercials start. The television viewers’ demographic characteristics may indicate the likelihood of the zapping frequency. Analysis made by using Multinomial Logit Model indicates how effective the demographic variables are in the watching rate of the first minute of the television commercials.

  7. Investigating the Differences of Single-Vehicle and Multivehicle Accident Probability Using Mixed Logit Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bowen Dong

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Road traffic accidents are believed to be associated with not only road geometric feature and traffic characteristic, but also weather condition. To address these safety issues, it is of paramount importance to understand how these factors affect the occurrences of the crashes. Existing studies have suggested that the mechanisms of single-vehicle (SV accidents and multivehicle (MV accidents can be very different. Few studies were conducted to examine the difference of SV and MV accident probability by addressing unobserved heterogeneity at the same time. To investigate the different contributing factors on SV and MV, a mixed logit model is employed using disaggregated data with the response variable categorized as no accidents, SV accidents, and MV accidents. The results indicate that, in addition to speed gap, length of segment, and wet road surfaces which are significant for both SV and MV accidents, most of other variables are significant only for MV accidents. Traffic, road, and surface characteristics are main influence factors of SV and MV accident possibility. Hourly traffic volume, inside shoulder width, and wet road surface are found to produce statistically significant random parameters. Their effects on the possibility of SV and MV accident vary across different road segments.

  8. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed logit model that represents the selection among 5 emergency lateral and speed control maneuvers (i.e., "no avoidance maneuvers," "braking," "steering," "braking and steering," and "other maneuvers) while accommodating correlations across maneuvers and heteroscedasticity. Data for the analysis were retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the year 2009 by considering drivers for which crash avoidance maneuvers are known. The results show that (1) the nature of the critical event that made the crash imminent greatly influences the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers, (2) women and elderly have a relatively lower propensity to conduct crash avoidance maneuvers, (3) drowsiness and fatigue have a greater negative marginal effect on the tendency to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers than alcohol and drug consumption, (4) difficult road conditions increase the propensity to perform crash avoidance maneuvers, and (5) visual obstruction and artificial illumination decrease the probability to carry out crash avoidance maneuvers. The results emphasize the need for public awareness campaigns to promote safe driving style for senior drivers and warning about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing

  9. Logit and probit model in toll sensitivity analysis of Solo-Ngawi, Kartasura-Palang Joglo segment based on Willingness to Pay (WTP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Handayani, Dewi; Cahyaning Putri, Hera; Mahmudah, AMH

    2017-12-01

    Solo-Ngawi toll road project is part of the mega project of the Trans Java toll road development initiated by the government and is still under construction until now. PT Solo Ngawi Jaya (SNJ) as the Solo-Ngawi toll management company needs to determine the toll fare that is in accordance with the business plan. The determination of appropriate toll rates will affect progress in regional economic sustainability and decrease the traffic congestion. These policy instruments is crucial for achieving environmentally sustainable transport. Therefore, the objective of this research is to find out how the toll fare sensitivity of Solo-Ngawi toll road based on Willingness To Pay (WTP). Primary data was obtained by distributing stated preference questionnaires to four wheeled vehicle users in Kartasura-Palang Joglo artery road segment. Further data obtained will be analysed with logit and probit model. Based on the analysis, it is found that the effect of fare change on the amount of WTP on the binomial logit model is more sensitive than the probit model on the same travel conditions. The range of tariff change against values of WTP on the binomial logit model is 20% greater than the range of values in the probit model . On the other hand, the probability results of the binomial logit model and the binary probit have no significant difference (less than 1%).

  10. Analysis of hourly crash likelihood using unbalanced panel data mixed logit model and real-time driving environmental big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Feng; Chen, Suren; Ma, Xiaoxiang

    2018-06-01

    Driving environment, including road surface conditions and traffic states, often changes over time and influences crash probability considerably. It becomes stretched for traditional crash frequency models developed in large temporal scales to capture the time-varying characteristics of these factors, which may cause substantial loss of critical driving environmental information on crash prediction. Crash prediction models with refined temporal data (hourly records) are developed to characterize the time-varying nature of these contributing factors. Unbalanced panel data mixed logit models are developed to analyze hourly crash likelihood of highway segments. The refined temporal driving environmental data, including road surface and traffic condition, obtained from the Road Weather Information System (RWIS), are incorporated into the models. Model estimation results indicate that the traffic speed, traffic volume, curvature and chemically wet road surface indicator are better modeled as random parameters. The estimation results of the mixed logit models based on unbalanced panel data show that there are a number of factors related to crash likelihood on I-25. Specifically, weekend indicator, November indicator, low speed limit and long remaining service life of rutting indicator are found to increase crash likelihood, while 5-am indicator and number of merging ramps per lane per mile are found to decrease crash likelihood. The study underscores and confirms the unique and significant impacts on crash imposed by the real-time weather, road surface, and traffic conditions. With the unbalanced panel data structure, the rich information from real-time driving environmental big data can be well incorporated. Copyright © 2018 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. The importance of examining movements within the US health care system: sequential logit modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Chioun

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Utilization of specialty care may not be a discrete, isolated behavior but rather, a behavior of sequential movements within the health care system. Although patients may often visit their primary care physician and receive a referral before utilizing specialty care, prior studies have underestimated the importance of accounting for these sequential movements. Methods The sample included 6,772 adults aged 18 years and older who participated in the 2001 Survey on Disparities in Quality of Care, sponsored by the Commonwealth Fund. A sequential logit model was used to account for movement in all stages of utilization: use of any health services (i.e., first stage, having a perceived need for specialty care (i.e., second stage, and utilization of specialty care (i.e., third stage. In the sequential logit model, all stages are nested within the previous stage. Results Gender, race/ethnicity, education and poor health had significant explanatory effects with regard to use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, however racial/ethnic, gender, and educational disparities were not present in utilization of specialty care. After controlling for use of any health services and having a perceived need for specialty care, inability to pay for specialty care via income (AOR = 1.334, CI = 1.10 to 1.62 or health insurance (unstable insurance: AOR = 0.26, CI = 0.14 to 0.48; no insurance: AOR = 0.12, CI = 0.07 to 0.20 were significant barriers to utilization of specialty care. Conclusions Use of a sequential logit model to examine utilization of specialty care resulted in a detailed representation of utilization behaviors and patient characteristics that impact these behaviors at all stages within the health care system. After controlling for sequential movements within the health care system, the biggest barrier to utilizing specialty care is the inability to pay, while racial, gender, and educational disparities

  12. Determination of the Factors Influencing Store Preference in Erzurum by a Multinomial Logit Model

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    Hüseyin ÖZER

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this study is to determine factors influencing store preference of the store costumers in Erzurum in terms of some characteristics of the store and its product and costumers’ demographic characteristics (sex, age, marital status, level of education and their income level. In order to carry out this objective, Pearson chi-square test is applied to determine whether there is a relationship between the store preference and customer, stores, and some characteristics of products and a multinominal logit model is fitted by stepwise regression method to the cross-section data compiled from a questionnaire applied to 384 store costumers in the center of Erzurum province. According to the model estimation and test results, the variables of marital status (married, education (primary and cheapness (unimportant for Migros; education (middle for Özmar and marital status (married for the other stores are determined as statistically significant at the level of 5 percent

  13. Risk factors associated with bus accident severity in the United States: A generalized ordered logit model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    of 2011. Method: The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of bus accident severity in the United States by estimating a generalized ordered logit model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) database for the years 2005–2009. Results: Results show...... that accident severity increases: (i) for young bus drivers under the age of 25; (ii) for drivers beyond the age of 55, and most prominently for drivers over 65 years old; (iii) for female drivers; (iv) for very high (over 65 mph) and very low (under 20 mph) speed limits; (v) at intersections; (vi) because......Introduction: Recent years have witnessed a growing interest in improving bus safety operations worldwide. While in the United States buses are considered relatively safe, the number of bus accidents is far from being negligible, triggering the introduction of the Motor-coach Enhanced Safety Act...

  14. Model-based Clustering of Categorical Time Series with Multinomial Logit Classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Pamminger, Christoph; Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Weber, Andrea

    2010-09-01

    A common problem in many areas of applied statistics is to identify groups of similar time series in a panel of time series. However, distance-based clustering methods cannot easily be extended to time series data, where an appropriate distance-measure is rather difficult to define, particularly for discrete-valued time series. Markov chain clustering, proposed by Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6], is an approach for clustering discrete-valued time series obtained by observing a categorical variable with several states. This model-based clustering method is based on finite mixtures of first-order time-homogeneous Markov chain models. In order to further explain group membership we present an extension to the approach of Pamminger and Frühwirth-Schnatter [6] by formulating a probabilistic model for the latent group indicators within the Bayesian classification rule by using a multinomial logit model. The parameters are estimated for a fixed number of clusters within a Bayesian framework using an Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme representing a (full) Gibbs-type sampler which involves only draws from standard distributions. Finally, an application to a panel of Austrian wage mobility data is presented which leads to an interesting segmentation of the Austrian labour market.

  15. Time-varying mixed logit model for vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Jinxian; Du, Gang; Li, Dan; Yu, Yao

    2018-08-01

    This study aims to develop a time-varying mixed logit model for the vehicle merging behavior in work zone merging areas during the merging implementation period from the time of starting a merging maneuver to that of completing the maneuver. From the safety perspective, vehicle crash probability and severity between the merging vehicle and its surrounding vehicles are regarded as major factors influencing vehicle merging decisions. Model results show that the model with the use of vehicle crash risk probability and severity could provide higher prediction accuracy than previous models with the use of vehicle speeds and gap sizes. It is found that lead vehicle type, through lead vehicle type, through lag vehicle type, crash probability of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lag vehicle, crash severities of the merging vehicle with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles could exhibit time-varying effects on the merging behavior. One important finding is that the merging vehicle could become more and more aggressive in order to complete the merging maneuver as quickly as possible over the elapsed time, even if it has high vehicle crash risk with respect to the through lead and lag vehicles. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Assessment of Poisson, logit, and linear models for genetic analysis of clinical mastitis in Norwegian Red cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vazquez, A I; Gianola, D; Bates, D; Weigel, K A; Heringstad, B

    2009-02-01

    Clinical mastitis is typically coded as presence/absence during some period of exposure, and records are analyzed with linear or binary data models. Because presence includes cows with multiple episodes, there is loss of information when a count is treated as a binary response. The Poisson model is designed for counting random variables, and although it is used extensively in epidemiology of mastitis, it has rarely been used for studying the genetics of mastitis. Many models have been proposed for genetic analysis of mastitis, but they have not been formally compared. The main goal of this study was to compare linear (Gaussian), Bernoulli (with logit link), and Poisson models for the purpose of genetic evaluation of sires for mastitis in dairy cattle. The response variables were clinical mastitis (CM; 0, 1) and number of CM cases (NCM; 0, 1, 2, ..). Data consisted of records on 36,178 first-lactation daughters of 245 Norwegian Red sires distributed over 5,286 herds. Predictive ability of models was assessed via a 3-fold cross-validation using mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) as the end-point. Between-sire variance estimates for NCM were 0.065 in Poisson and 0.007 in the linear model. For CM the between-sire variance was 0.093 in logit and 0.003 in the linear model. The ratio between herd and sire variances for the models with NCM response was 4.6 and 3.5 for Poisson and linear, respectively, and for model for CM was 3.7 in both logit and linear models. The MSEP for all cows was similar. However, within healthy animals, MSEP was 0.085 (Poisson), 0.090 (linear for NCM), 0.053 (logit), and 0.056 (linear for CM). For mastitic animals the MSEP values were 1.206 (Poisson), 1.185 (linear for NCM response), 1.333 (logit), and 1.319 (linear for CM response). The models for count variables had a better performance when predicting diseased animals and also had a similar performance between them. Logit and linear models for CM had better predictive ability for healthy

  17. Analysis of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on Vannamei Shrimp using binary logit model approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oktaviana, P. P.; Fithriasari, K.

    2018-04-01

    Mostly Indonesian citizen consume vannamei shrimp as their food. Vannamei shrimp also is one of Indonesian exports comodities mainstay. Vannamei shrimp in the ponds and markets could be contaminated by Salmonella sp bacteria. This bacteria will endanger human health. Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp could be affected by many factors. This study is intended to identify what factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp. The researchers used the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp as response variable. This response variable has two categories: 0 = if testing result indicate that there is no Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp; 1 = if testing result indicate that there is Salmonella sp on vannamei shrimp. There are four factors that supposedly influence the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp, which are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab; the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds; the fish processing unit supplied by; and the pond are in hectare. This four factors used as predictor variables. The analysis used is Binary Logit Model Approach according to the response variable that has two categories. The analysis result indicates that the factors or predictor variables which is significantly affect the Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on vannamei shrimp are the testing result of Salmonella sp bacterial contamination on farmer hand swab and the subdistrict of vannamei shrimp ponds.

  18. A Subpath-based Logit Model to Capture the Correlation of Routes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinjun Lai

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A subpath-based methodology is proposed to capture the travellers’ route choice behaviours and their perceptual correlation of routes, because the original link-based style may not be suitable in application: (1 travellers do not process road network information and construct the chosen route by a link-by-link style; (2 observations from questionnaires and GPS data, however, are not always link-specific. Subpaths are defined as important portions of the route, such as major roads and landmarks. The cross-nested Logit (CNL structure is used for its tractable closed-form and its capability to explicitly capture the routes correlation. Nests represent subpaths other than links so that the number of nests is significantly reduced. Moreover, the proposed method simplifies the original link-based CNL model; therefore, it alleviates the estimation and computation difficulties. The estimation and forecast validation with real data are presented, and the results suggest that the new method is practical.

  19. Comparing Johnson’s SBB, Weibull and Logit-Logistic bivariate distributions for modeling tree diameters and heights using copulas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cardil Forradellas, A.; Molina Terrén, D.M.; Oliveres, J.; Castellnou, M.

    2016-07-01

    Aim of study: In this study we compare the accuracy of three bivariate distributions: Johnson’s SBB, Weibull-2P and LL-2P functions for characterizing the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. Area of study: North-West of Spain. Material and methods: Diameter and height measurements of 128 plots of pure and even-aged Tasmanian blue gum (Eucalyptus globulus Labill.) stands located in the North-west of Spain were considered in the present study. The SBB bivariate distribution was obtained from SB marginal distributions using a Normal Copula based on a four-parameter logistic transformation. The Plackett Copula was used to obtain the bivariate models from the Weibull and Logit-logistic univariate marginal distributions. The negative logarithm of the maximum likelihood function was used to compare the results and the Wilcoxon signed-rank test was used to compare the related samples of these logarithms calculated for each sample plot and each distribution. Main results: The best results were obtained by using the Plackett copula and the best marginal distribution was the Logit-logistic. Research highlights: The copulas used in this study have shown a good performance for modeling the joint distribution of tree diameters and heights. They could be easily extended for modelling multivariate distributions involving other tree variables, such as tree volume or biomass. (Author)

  20. Analyzing Korean consumers’ latent preferences for electricity generation sources with a hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Byun, Hyunsuk; Lee, Chul-Yong

    2017-01-01

    Generally, consumers use electricity without considering the source the electricity was generated from. Since different energy sources exert varying effects on society, it is necessary to analyze consumers’ latent preference for electricity generation sources. The present study estimates Korean consumers’ marginal utility and an appropriate generation mix is derived using the hierarchical Bayesian logit model in a discrete choice experiment. The results show that consumers consider the danger posed by the source of electricity as the most important factor among the effects of electricity generation sources. Additionally, Korean consumers wish to reduce the contribution of nuclear power from the existing 32–11%, and increase that of renewable energy from the existing 4–32%. - Highlights: • We derive an electricity mix reflecting Korean consumers’ latent preferences. • We use the discrete choice experiment and hierarchical Bayesian logit model. • The danger posed by the generation source is the most important attribute. • The consumers wish to increase the renewable energy proportion from 4.3% to 32.8%. • Korea's cost-oriented energy supply policy and consumers’ preference differ markedly.

  1. Recreation Value of Water to Wetlands in the San Joaquin Valley: Linked Multinomial Logit and Count Data Trip Frequency Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Creel, Michael; Loomis, John

    1992-10-01

    The recreational benefits from providing increased quantities of water to wildlife and fisheries habitats is estimated using linked multinomial logit site selection models and count data trip frequency models. The study encompasses waterfowl hunting, fishing and wildlife viewing at 14 recreational resources in the San Joaquin Valley, including the National Wildlife Refuges, the State Wildlife Management Areas, and six river destinations. The economic benefits of increasing water supplies to wildlife refuges were also examined by using the estimated models to predict changing patterns of site selection and overall participation due to increases in water allocations. Estimates of the dollar value per acre foot of water are calculated for increases in water to refuges. The resulting model is a flexible and useful tool for estimating the economic benefits of alternative water allocation policies for wildlife habitat and rivers.

  2. Modeling a Multinomial Logit Model of Intercity Travel Mode Choice Behavior for All Trips in Libya

    OpenAIRE

    Manssour A. Abdulsalam Bin Miskeen; Ahmed Mohamed Alhodairi; Riza Atiq Abdullah Bin O. K. Rahmat

    2013-01-01

    In the planning point of view, it is essential to have mode choice, due to the massive amount of incurred in transportation systems. The intercity travellers in Libya have distinct features, as against travellers from other countries, which includes cultural and socioeconomic factors. Consequently, the goal of this study is to recognize the behavior of intercity travel using disaggregate models, for projecting the demand of nation-level intercity travel in Libya. Multinom...

  3. A comparison of generalized multinomial logit, random parameters logit, wtp-space and latent class models to studying consumers' preferences for animal welfare

    OpenAIRE

    Kallas, Zein; Borrisser-Pairó,, Francesc; Martínez, Beatriz; Vieira, Ceferina; Panella-Riera, Nuria; Olivar, Maria Angels; Gil Roig, José María

    2016-01-01

    The European societies are requiring that animals to be raised as closely as possible to their natural conditions. The growing concerns about animal welfare is resulting in continuous modifications of regulations and policies that led to ban of a number of intensive farming methods. The European authorities consider the pig welfare as a priority issue. They are studying to ban surgical pig castration by 2018, which may seriously affect markets and consumers due to boar tainted-meat. This stud...

  4. Exploratory multinomial logit model-based driver injury severity analyses for teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Qiong; Zhang, Guohui; Ci, Yusheng; Wu, Lina; Tarefder, Rafiqul A; Alcántara, Adélamar Dely

    2016-05-18

    Teenage drivers are more likely to be involved in severely incapacitating and fatal crashes compared to adult drivers. Moreover, because two thirds of urban vehicle miles traveled are on signal-controlled roadways, significant research efforts are needed to investigate intersection-related teenage driver injury severities and their contributing factors in terms of driver behavior, vehicle-infrastructure interactions, environmental characteristics, roadway geometric features, and traffic compositions. Therefore, this study aims to explore the characteristic differences between teenage and adult drivers in intersection-related crashes, identify the significant contributing attributes, and analyze their impacts on driver injury severities. Using crash data collected in New Mexico from 2010 to 2011, 2 multinomial logit regression models were developed to analyze injury severities for teenage and adult drivers, respectively. Elasticity analyses and transferability tests were conducted to better understand the quantitative impacts of these factors and the teenage driver injury severity model's generality. The results showed that although many of the same contributing factors were found to be significant in the both teenage and adult driver models, certain different attributes must be distinguished to specifically develop effective safety solutions for the 2 driver groups. The research findings are helpful to better understand teenage crash uniqueness and develop cost-effective solutions to reduce intersection-related teenage injury severities and facilitate driver injury mitigation research.

  5. A Smooth Transition Logit Model of the Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A.S.; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting of specific......We consider a nonlinear vector model called the logistic vector smooth transition autoregressive model. The bivariate single-transition vector smooth transition regression model of Camacho (2004) is generalised to a multivariate and multitransition one. A modelling strategy consisting...... of specification, including testing linearity, estimation and evaluation of these models is constructed. Nonlinear least squares estimation of the parameters of the model is discussed. Evaluation by misspecification tests is carried out using tests derived in a companion paper. The use of the modelling strategy...

  6. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Revealing additional preference heterogeneity with an extended random parameter logit model: the case of extra virgin olive oil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed Yangui

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Methods that account for preference heterogeneity have received a significant amount of attention in recent literature. Most of them have focused on preference heterogeneity around the mean of the random parameters, which has been specified as a function of socio-demographic characteristics. This paper aims at analyzing consumers’ preferences towards extra-virgin olive oil in Catalonia using a methodological framework with two novelties over past studies: 1 it accounts for both preference heterogeneity around the mean and the variance; and 2 it considers both socio-demographic characteristics of consumers as well as their attitudinal factors. Estimated coefficients and moments of willingness to pay (WTP distributions are compared with those obtained from alternative Random Parameter Logit (RPL models. Results suggest that the proposed framework increases the goodness-of-fit and provides more useful insights for policy analysis. The most important attributes affecting consumers’ preferences towards extra virgin olive oil are the price and the product’s origin. The consumers perceive the organic olive oil attribute negatively, as they think that it is not worth paying a premium for a product that is healthy in nature.

  8. A smooth transition logit model of the effects of deregulation in the electricity market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hurn, A. Stan; Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2016-01-01

    of the model are derived along with their asymptotic properties, together with a Lagrange multiplier test of the null hypothesis of linearity in the underlying latent index. The development of the STL model is motivated by the desire to assess the impact of deregulation in the Queensland electricity market...... and ascertain whether increased competition has resulted in significant changes in the behaviour of the spot price of electricity, specifically with respect to the occurrence of periodic abnormally high prices. The model allows the timing of any change to be endogenously determined and also market participants...

  9. Radiation effects on cancer mortality among A-bomb survivors, 1950-72. Comparison of some statistical models and analysis based on the additive logit model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Otake, M [Hiroshima Univ. (Japan). Faculty of Science

    1976-12-01

    Various statistical models designed to determine the effects of radiation dose on mortality of atomic bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki from specific cancers were evaluated on the basis of a basic k(age) x c(dose) x 2 contingency table. From the aspects of application and fits of different models, analysis based on the additive logit model was applied to the mortality experience of this population during the 22year period from 1 Oct. 1950 to 31 Dec. 1972. The advantages and disadvantages of the additive logit model were demonstrated. Leukemia mortality showed a sharp rise with an increase in dose. The dose response relationship suggests a possible curvature or a log linear model, particularly if the dose estimated to be more than 600 rad were set arbitrarily at 600 rad, since the average dose in the 200+ rad group would then change from 434 to 350 rad. In the 22year period from 1950 to 1972, a high mortality risk due to radiation was observed in survivors with doses of 200 rad and over for all cancers except leukemia. On the other hand, during the latest period from 1965 to 1972 a significant risk was noted also for stomach and breast cancers. Survivors who were 9 year old or less at the time of the bomb and who were exposed to high doses of 200+ rad appeared to show a high mortality risk for all cancers except leukemia, although the number of observed deaths is yet small. A number of interesting areas are discussed from the statistical and epidemiological standpoints, i.e., the numerical comparison of risks in various models, the general evaluation of cancer mortality by the additive logit model, the dose response relationship, the relative risk in the high dose group, the time period of radiation induced cancer mortality, the difference of dose response between Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the relative biological effectiveness of neutrons.

  10. An integrated logit model for contamination event detection in water distribution systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Housh, Mashor; Ostfeld, Avi

    2015-05-15

    The problem of contamination event detection in water distribution systems has become one of the most challenging research topics in water distribution systems analysis. Current attempts for event detection utilize a variety of approaches including statistical, heuristics, machine learning, and optimization methods. Several existing event detection systems share a common feature in which alarms are obtained separately for each of the water quality indicators. Unifying those single alarms from different indicators is usually performed by means of simple heuristics. A salient feature of the current developed approach is using a statistically oriented model for discrete choice prediction which is estimated using the maximum likelihood method for integrating the single alarms. The discrete choice model is jointly calibrated with other components of the event detection system framework in a training data set using genetic algorithms. The fusing process of each indicator probabilities, which is left out of focus in many existing event detection system models, is confirmed to be a crucial part of the system which could be modelled by exploiting a discrete choice model for improving its performance. The developed methodology is tested on real water quality data, showing improved performances in decreasing the number of false positive alarms and in its ability to detect events with higher probabilities, compared to previous studies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A dynamic random effects multinomial logit model of household car ownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bue Bjørner, Thomas; Leth-Petersen, Søren

    2007-01-01

    Using a large household panel we estimate demand for car ownership by means of a dynamic multinomial model with correlated random effects. Results suggest that the persistence in car ownership observed in the data should be attributed to both true state dependence and to unobserved heterogeneity...... (random effects). It also appears that random effects related to single and multiple car ownership are correlated, suggesting that the IIA assumption employed in simple multinomial models of car ownership is invalid. Relatively small elasticities with respect to income and car costs are estimated...

  12. Associating crash avoidance maneuvers with driver attributes and accident characteristics: a mixed logit model approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2012-01-01

    from the key role of proactive and state-aware road users within the concept of sustainable safety systems, as well as from the key role of effective corrective maneuvers in the success of automated in-vehicle warning and driver assistance systems. Methods: The analysis is conducted by means of a mixed...... about the risks of driving under fatigue and distraction being comparable to the risks of driving under the influence of alcohol and drugs. Moreover, the results suggest the need to educate drivers about hazard perception, designing a forgiving infrastructure within a sustainable safety systems......Objective: The current study focuses on the propensity of drivers to engage in crash avoidance maneuvers in relation to driver attributes, critical events, crash characteristics, vehicles involved, road characteristics, and environmental conditions. The importance of avoidance maneuvers derives...

  13. Para Krizleri Öngörüsünde Logit Model ve Sinyal Yaklaşımının Değeri: Türkiye Tecrübesi

    OpenAIRE

    Kaya, Vedat; Yilmaz, Omer

    2007-01-01

    Logit model and the signal approach are two analysis methods being commonly used to forecast and explain currency crises. Logit model is successful to determine explaining variables of crisis and to calculate the probability of crisis in particular during the period experienced with a crisis. On the other hand, the signal approach aims at determining any possible currency crisis in advance, following some variables showing unusual change over the periods of economic fluctuation and thus it pr...

  14. Predicting longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities with random-effects multinomial logit regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xian; Engel, Charles C

    2012-12-20

    Researchers often encounter longitudinal health data characterized with three or more ordinal or nominal categories. Random-effects multinomial logit models are generally applied to account for potential lack of independence inherent in such clustered data. When parameter estimates are used to describe longitudinal processes, however, random effects, both between and within individuals, need to be retransformed for correctly predicting outcome probabilities. This study attempts to go beyond existing work by developing a retransformation method that derives longitudinal growth trajectories of unbiased health probabilities. We estimated variances of the predicted probabilities by using the delta method. Additionally, we transformed the covariates' regression coefficients on the multinomial logit function, not substantively meaningful, to the conditional effects on the predicted probabilities. The empirical illustration uses the longitudinal data from the Asset and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old. Our analysis compared three sets of the predicted probabilities of three health states at six time points, obtained from, respectively, the retransformation method, the best linear unbiased prediction, and the fixed-effects approach. The results demonstrate that neglect of retransforming random errors in the random-effects multinomial logit model results in severely biased longitudinal trajectories of health probabilities as well as overestimated effects of covariates on the probabilities. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. Random Coefficient Logit Model for Large Datasets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C. Hernández-Mireles (Carlos); D. Fok (Dennis)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractWe present an approach for analyzing market shares and products price elasticities based on large datasets containing aggregate sales data for many products, several markets and for relatively long time periods. We consider the recently proposed Bayesian approach of Jiang et al [Jiang,

  16. Modelling classroom conditions with different boundary conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Marbjerg, Gerd Høy; Jeong, Cheol-Ho; Brunskog, Jonas

    2014-01-01

    A model that combines image source modelling and acoustical radiosity with complex boundary condition, thus including phase shifts on reflection has been developed. The model is called PARISM (Phased Acoustical Radiosity and Image Source Model). It has been developed in order to be able to model...

  17. A mixed logit analysis of two-vehicle crash severities involving a motorcycle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaheed, Mohammad Saad B; Gkritza, Konstantina; Zhang, Wei; Hans, Zachary

    2013-12-01

    Using motorcycle crash data for Iowa from 2001 to 2008, this paper estimates a mixed logit model to investigate the factors that affect crash severity outcomes in a collision between a motorcycle and another vehicle. These include crash-specific factors (such as manner of collision, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle actions), roadway and environmental conditions, location and time, motorcycle rider and non-motorcycle driver and vehicle attributes. The methodological approach allows the parameters to vary across observations as opposed to a single parameter representing all observations. Our results showed non-uniform effects of rear-end collisions on minor injury crashes, as well as of the roadway speed limit greater or equal to 55mph, the type of area (urban), the riding season (summer) and motorcyclist's gender on low severity crashes. We also found significant effects of the roadway surface condition, clear vision (not obscured by moving vehicles, trees, buildings, or other), light conditions, speed limit, and helmet use on severe injury outcomes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Three essays on resource economics. Demand systems for energy forecasting: Practical considerations for estimating a generalized logit model, To borrow or not to borrow: A variation on the MacDougal-Kemp theme, and, Valuing reduced risk for households with children or the retired

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weng, Weifeng

    This thesis presents papers on three areas of study within resource and environmental economics. "Demand Systems For Energy Forecasting" provides some practical considerations for estimating a Generalized Logit model. The main reason for using this demand system for energy and other factors is that the derived price elasticities are robust when expenditure shares are small. The primary objective of the paper is to determine the best form of the cross-price weights, and a simple inverse function of the expenditure share is selected. A second objective is to demonstrate that the estimated elasticities are sensitive to the units specified for the prices, and to show how price scales can be estimated as part of the model. "To Borrow or Not to Borrow: A Variation on the MacDougal-Kemp Theme" studies the impact of international capital movements on the conditional convergence of economies differing from each other only in initial wealth. We found that in assets, income, consumption and utility, convergence obtains, with and only with, the absence of international capital movement. When a rich country invests in a poor country, the balance of debt increases forever. Asset ownership is increased in all periods for the lender, and asset ownership of the borrower is deceased. Also, capital investment decreases the lender's utility for early periods, but increases it forever after a cross-over point. In contrast, the borrower's utility increases for early periods, but then decreases forever. "Valuing Reduced Risk for Households with Children or the Retired" presents a theoretical model of how families value risk and then exams family automobile purchases to impute the average Value of a Statistical Life (VSL) for each type of family. Data for fatal accidents are used to estimate survival rates for individuals in different types of accidents, and the probabilities of having accidents for different types of vehicle. These models are used to determine standardized risks for

  19. Application of LogitBoost Classifier for Traceability Using SNP Chip Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Kwondo; Seo, Minseok; Kang, Hyunsung; Cho, Seoae; Kim, Heebal; Seo, Kang-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Consumer attention to food safety has increased rapidly due to animal-related diseases; therefore, it is important to identify their places of origin (POO) for safety purposes. However, only a few studies have addressed this issue and focused on machine learning-based approaches. In the present study, classification analyses were performed using a customized SNP chip for POO prediction. To accomplish this, 4,122 pigs originating from 104 farms were genotyped using the SNP chip. Several factors were considered to establish the best prediction model based on these data. We also assessed the applicability of the suggested model using a kinship coefficient-filtering approach. Our results showed that the LogitBoost-based prediction model outperformed other classifiers in terms of classification performance under most conditions. Specifically, a greater level of accuracy was observed when a higher kinship-based cutoff was employed. These results demonstrated the applicability of a machine learning-based approach using SNP chip data for practical traceability.

  20. Valoração de contingente pelas modelagens logit e análise multivariada: um estudo de caso da disposição a aceitar compensação dos cafeicultores vinculados ao PRO-CAFÉ de Viçosa - MG Contingent valuation with modeling logit and multivariate analyses: a case study of the willingness of coffee planters linked to the PRO-COFFEE of Viçosa - MG to accept compensation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Silveira Máximo

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available O objetivo deste estudo foi, justamente, identificar, entre os métodos LOGIT e a análise multivariada, qual a mais eficaz para estimar a Disposição a Aceitar Compensação (DAC dos cafeicultores quando o viés da utilidade marginal é passível de ocorrência. Para tal, foi elaborado um formulário com 33 perguntas envolvendo informações sobre características socioeconômicas dos cafeicultores, o uso da metodologia de valoração de contingente (MVC e do veículo de pagamento dos "Jogos de Lances", que revelou a Disposição a Aceitar uma Compensação (DAC na troca de um hectare de café por um hectare de mata. Como esperado, por causa do viés da utilidade marginal o método LOGIT foi incapaz de produzir resultados consistentes. Já a estimação da DAC pela análise multivariada mostrou que, caso o governo estivesse disposto a aumentar a provisão de mata em 70 ha, ele deveria despender 254.200 reais por ano, tratando apenas dos cafeicultores vinculados ao programa do PRO-CAFÉ.The object of this study was to identify which method, either LOGIT or multivariate analyses, was the most efficient to estimate the coffee planters' Willingness to Accept a Compensation, when there was a possibility of occurrence of marginal utility. For such, a questionnaire was formulated, with 33 questions involving information on coffee planters' socio - economic characteristics, the use of the methodology of contingent valuation (MCV, and the payment of the "offer game" that reveled the willingness to accept a compensation (WAC, by exchanging a hectare of coffee by a hectare of forest. As expected, because of the marginal utility's bias, the LOGIT method was unable to produce consistent results. However, when the WAC was estimated by multivariate analyses, the results showed that if the government is willing to increase the provision of forest to 70 hectares, it should pay out 254,200 reais (around 116,000 dollars, dealing only with the coffee planters

  1. Predicting Dropouts of University Freshmen: A Logit Regression Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lam, Y. L. Jack

    1984-01-01

    Stepwise discriminant analysis coupled with logit regression analysis of freshmen data from Brandon University (Manitoba) indicated that six tested variables drawn from research on university dropouts were useful in predicting attrition: student status, residence, financial sources, distance from home town, goal fulfillment, and satisfaction with…

  2. Logit Analysis for Profit Maximizing Loan Classification

    OpenAIRE

    Watt, David L.; Mortensen, Timothy L.; Leistritz, F. Larry

    1988-01-01

    Lending criteria and loan classification methods are developed. Rating system breaking points are analyzed to present a method to maximize loan revenues. Financial characteristics of farmers are used as determinants of delinquency in a multivariate logistic model. Results indicate that debt-to-asset and operating ration are most indicative of default.

  3. Un procedimiento para selección de los modelos Logit Mixtos

    OpenAIRE

    Ruíz Gallegos, José de Jesús

    2004-01-01

    En el presente trabajo se hace una revisión de dos modelos que han tenido una fuerte aplicabilidad en los problemas de elecciones discretas: El modelo Logit y el modelo Logit Mixto. Además, se propone el uso del estadístico de Cox para seleccionar modelos, en el modelo Logit Mixto.

  4. Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coe, R. G.; Neary, V. S.; Lawson, M. J.; Yu, Y.; Weber, J.

    2014-07-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, NM on May 13th-14th, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. hurricanes and other large storms) and to suggest how U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry.

  5. Numerical proceessing of radioimmunoassay results using logit-log transformation method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Textoris, R.

    1983-01-01

    The mathematical model and algorithm are described of the numerical processing of the results of a radioimmunoassay by the logit-log transformation method and by linear regression with weight factors. The limiting value of the curve for zero concentration is optimized with regard to the residual sum by the iterative method by multiple repeats of the linear regression. Typical examples are presented of the approximation of calibration curves. The method proved suitable for all hitherto used RIA sets and is well suited for small computers with internal memory of min. 8 Kbyte. (author)

  6. Extreme Conditions Modeling Workshop Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Coe, Ryan Geoffrey [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Neary, Vincent Sinclair [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lawon, Michael J. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Yu, Yi-Hsiang [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Weber, Jochem [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2014-07-01

    Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) hosted the Wave Energy Converter (WEC) Extreme Conditions Modeling (ECM) Workshop in Albuquerque, New Mexico on May 13–14, 2014. The objective of the workshop was to review the current state of knowledge on how to numerically and experimentally model WECs in extreme conditions (e.g. large ocean storms) and to suggest how national laboratory resources could be used to improve ECM methods for the benefit of the wave energy industry. More than 30 U.S. and European WEC experts from industry, academia, and national research institutes attended the workshop, which consisted of presentations from W EC developers, invited keynote presentations from subject matter experts, breakout sessions, and a final plenary session .

  7. OPAL Netlogo Land Condition Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-15

    ER D C/ CE RL T R- 14 -1 2 Optimal Allocation of Land for Training and Non-training Uses ( OPAL ) OPAL Netlogo Land Condition Model...Fulton, Natalie Myers, Scott Tweddale, Dick Gebhart, Ryan Busby, Anne Dain-Owens, and Heidi Howard August 2014 OPAL team measuring above and...online library at http://acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/default. Optimal Allocation of Land for Training and Non-training Uses ( OPAL ) ERDC/CERL TR-14-12

  8. Bayesian informative dropout model for longitudinal binary data with random effects using conditional and joint modeling approaches.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Jennifer S K

    2016-05-01

    Dropouts are common in longitudinal study. If the dropout probability depends on the missing observations at or after dropout, this type of dropout is called informative (or nonignorable) dropout (ID). Failure to accommodate such dropout mechanism into the model will bias the parameter estimates. We propose a conditional autoregressive model for longitudinal binary data with an ID model such that the probabilities of positive outcomes as well as the drop-out indicator in each occasion are logit linear in some covariates and outcomes. This model adopting a marginal model for outcomes and a conditional model for dropouts is called a selection model. To allow for the heterogeneity and clustering effects, the outcome model is extended to incorporate mixture and random effects. Lastly, the model is further extended to a novel model that models the outcome and dropout jointly such that their dependency is formulated through an odds ratio function. Parameters are estimated by a Bayesian approach implemented using the user-friendly Bayesian software WinBUGS. A methadone clinic dataset is analyzed to illustrate the proposed models. Result shows that the treatment time effect is still significant but weaker after allowing for an ID process in the data. Finally the effect of drop-out on parameter estimates is evaluated through simulation studies. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  9. Environmental regulations and plant exit: A logit analysis based on established panel data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bioern, E; Golombek, R; Raknerud, A

    1995-12-01

    This publication uses a model to study the relationship between environmental regulations and plant exit. It has the main characteristics of a multinomial qualitative response model of the logit type, but also has elements of a Markov chain model. The model uses Norwegian panel data for establishments in three manufacturing sectors with high shares of units which have been under strict environmental regulations. In two of the sectors, the exit probability of non-regulated establishments is about three times higher than for regulated ones. It is also found that the probability of changing regulation status from non-regulated to regulated depends significantly on economic factors. In particular, establishments with weak profitability are the most likely to become subject to environmental regulation. 12 refs., 2 figs., 6 tabs.

  10. Efficiency Loss of Mixed Equilibrium Associated with Altruistic Users and Logit-based Stochastic Users in Transportation Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiao-Jun Yu

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The efficiency loss of mixed equilibrium associated with two categories of users is investigated in this paper. The first category of users are altruistic users (AU who have the same altruism coefficient and try to minimize their own perceived cost that assumed to be a linear combination of selfish com­ponent and altruistic component. The second category of us­ers are Logit-based stochastic users (LSU who choose the route according to the Logit-based stochastic user equilib­rium (SUE principle. The variational inequality (VI model is used to formulate the mixed route choice behaviours associ­ated with AU and LSU. The efficiency loss caused by the two categories of users is analytically derived and the relations to some network parameters are discussed. The numerical tests validate our analytical results. Our result takes the re­sults in the existing literature as its special cases.

  11. Analisis Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Tingkat Kesehatan Bank dengan Regresi Logit

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Titik Aryati

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The article aims to find the probability effects of bank’s health level using CAMEL ratio analysis. The statistic method used to test on the research hypothesis was logit regression. The dependent variable used in this research was bank’s health level and independent variables were CAMEL financial ratios consisting of CAR, NPL, ROA, ROE, LDR, and NIM. The report data were extracted from bank’s financial from financial report, which had been published and accumulated by Infobank research bureau with valuation, based on bank Indonesia policy. The sample consisted of 60 healthy banks and 14 unhealthy banks in 2005 and 2006. The empirical result of this research indicates that the Non Performing Loan is the significant variable affecting bank health level.

  12. Maximum Simulated Likelihood and Expectation-Maximization Methods to Estimate Random Coefficients Logit with Panel Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cherchi, Elisabetta; Guevara, Cristian

    2012-01-01

    with cross-sectional or with panel data, and (d) EM systematically attained more efficient estimators than the MSL method. The results imply that if the purpose of the estimation is only to determine the ratios of the model parameters (e.g., the value of time), the EM method should be preferred. For all......The random coefficients logit model allows a more realistic representation of agents' behavior. However, the estimation of that model may involve simulation, which may become impractical with many random coefficients because of the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, the traditional maximum...... simulated likelihood (MSL) method is compared with the alternative expectation- maximization (EM) method, which does not require simulation. Previous literature had shown that for cross-sectional data, MSL outperforms the EM method in the ability to recover the true parameters and estimation time...

  13. Model Development for Risk Assessment of Driving on Freeway under Rainy Weather Conditions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaonan Cai

    Full Text Available Rainy weather conditions could result in significantly negative impacts on driving on freeways. However, due to lack of enough historical data and monitoring facilities, many regions are not able to establish reliable risk assessment models to identify such impacts. Given the situation, this paper provides an alternative solution where the procedure of risk assessment is developed based on drivers' subjective questionnaire and its performance is validated by using actual crash data. First, an ordered logit model was developed, based on questionnaire data collected from Freeway G15 in China, to estimate the relationship between drivers' perceived risk and factors, including vehicle type, rain intensity, traffic volume, and location. Then, weighted driving risk for different conditions was obtained by the model, and further divided into four levels of early warning (specified by colors using a rank order cluster analysis. After that, a risk matrix was established to determine which warning color should be disseminated to drivers, given a specific condition. Finally, to validate the proposed procedure, actual crash data from Freeway G15 were compared with the safety prediction based on the risk matrix. The results show that the risk matrix obtained in the study is able to predict driving risk consistent with actual safety implications, under rainy weather conditions.

  14. Analysis of the liquidity risk in credit unions: a logit multinomial approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosiane Maria Lima Gonçalves

    2008-10-01

    Full Text Available Liquidity risk in financial institutions is associated to balance between working capital and financial demands. Other factors that affect credit union liquidity are an unanticipated increase of withdrawals without an offsetting amount of new deposits, and the lack of ability in promoting the product geographical diversification. The objective of this study is to analyze Minas Gerais state credit union liquidity risk and its factor determinants. Financial ratios and the multinomial logit model are used. The cooperatives were classified in five categories of liquidity risk: very low, low, medium, high and very high. The empirical results indicate that high levels of liquidity are related to smaller values of the outsourcing capital use, immobilization of the turnover capital, and provision ratios. So, they are associated to larger values of the deposit total/credit operations, and asset growth ratios.

  15. Testing the Conditional Mean Function of Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hautsch, Nikolaus

    be subject to censoring structures. In an empirical study based on financial transaction data we present an application of the model to estimate conditional asset price change probabilities. Evaluating the forecasting properties of the model, it is shown that the proposed approach is a promising competitor......This paper proposes a dynamic proportional hazard (PH) model with non-specified baseline hazard for the modelling of autoregressive duration processes. A categorization of the durations allows us to reformulate the PH model as an ordered response model based on extreme value distributed errors...

  16. The Market for Ph.D. Holders in Greece: Probit and Multinomial Logit Analysis of their Employment Status

    OpenAIRE

    Joan Daouli; Eirini Konstantina Nikolatou

    2015-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors influencing the probability that a Ph.D. holder in Greece will work in the academic sector, as well as the probability of his or her choosing employment in various sectors of industry and occupational categories. Probit/multinomial logit models are employed using the 2001 Census data. The empirical results indicate that being young, married, having a Ph.D. in Natural Sciences and/or in Engineering, granted by a Greek university, increa...

  17. Nonlinear models for autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Teräsvirta, Timo

    This paper contains a brief survey of nonlinear models of autore- gressive conditional heteroskedasticity. The models in question are parametric nonlinear extensions of the original model by Engle (1982). After presenting the individual models, linearity testing and parameter estimation are discu...

  18. Modeling Left-Turn Driving Behavior at Signalized Intersections with Mixed Traffic Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Li

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In many developing countries, mixed traffic is the most common type of urban transportation; traffic of this type faces many major problems in traffic engineering, such as conflicts, inefficiency, and security issues. This paper focuses on the traffic engineering concerns on the driving behavior of left-turning vehicles caused by different degrees of pedestrian violations. The traffic characteristics of left-turning vehicles and pedestrians in the affected region at a signalized intersection were analyzed and a cellular-automata-based “following-conflict” driving behavior model that mainly addresses four basic behavior modes was proposed to study the conflict and behavior mechanisms of left-turning vehicles by mathematic methodologies. Four basic driving behavior modes were reproduced in computer simulations, and a logit model of the behavior mode choice was also developed to analyze the relative share of each behavior mode. Finally, the microscopic characteristics of driving behaviors and the macroscopic parameters of traffic flow in the affected region were all determined. These data are important reference for geometry and capacity design for signalized intersections. The simulation results show that the proposed models are valid and can be used to represent the behavior of left-turning vehicles in the case of conflicts with illegally crossing pedestrians. These results will have potential applications on improving traffic safety and traffic capacity at signalized intersections with mixed traffic conditions.

  19. Modelling Preference Heterogeneity for Theatre Tickets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baldin, Andrea; Bille, Trine

    2018-01-01

    This article analyses the behavioural choice for theatre tickets using a rich data set for 2010–2013 from the sale system of the Royal Danish National Theatre. A consumer who decides to attend a theatre production faces multiple sources of price variation that involves a choice by the consumer...... among different ticket alternatives. Three modelling approaches are proposed in order to model ticket purchases: conditional logit with socio-demographic characteristics, nested logit and latent class. These models allow us explicitly to take into account consumers’ preference heterogeneity with respect...... of behaviour in the choice of theatre ticket....

  20. Age and pedestrian injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes: a heteroskedastic logit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Joon-Ki; Ulfarsson, Gudmundur F; Shankar, Venkataraman N; Kim, Sungyop

    2008-09-01

    This research explores the injury severity of pedestrians in motor-vehicle crashes. It is hypothesized that the variance of unobserved pedestrian characteristics increases with age. In response, a heteroskedastic generalized extreme value model is used. The analysis links explanatory factors with four injury outcomes: fatal, incapacitating, non-incapacitating, and possible or no injury. Police-reported crash data between 1997 and 2000 from North Carolina, USA, are used. The results show that pedestrian age induces heteroskedasticity which affects the probability of fatal injury. The effect grows more pronounced with increasing age past 65. The heteroskedastic model provides a better fit than the multinomial logit model. Notable factors increasing the probability of fatal pedestrian injury: increasing pedestrian age, male driver, intoxicated driver (2.7 times greater probability of fatality), traffic sign, commercial area, darkness with or without streetlights (2-4 times greater probability of fatality), sport-utility vehicle, truck, freeway, two-way divided roadway, speeding-involved, off roadway, motorist turning or backing, both driver and pedestrian at fault, and pedestrian only at fault. Conversely, the probability of a fatal injury decreased: with increasing driver age, during the PM traffic peak, with traffic signal control, in inclement weather, on a curved roadway, at a crosswalk, and when walking along roadway.

  1. Modeling detour behavior of pedestrian dynamics under different conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Yunchao; Xiao, Yao; Wu, Jianjun; Tang, Tao; Gao, Ziyou

    2018-02-01

    Pedestrian simulation approach has been widely used to reveal the human behavior and evaluate the performance of crowd evacuation. In the existing pedestrian simulation models, the social force model is capable of predicting many collective phenomena. Detour behavior occurs in many cases, and the important behavior is a dominate factor of the crowd evacuation efficiency. However, limited attention has been attracted for analyzing and modeling the characteristics of detour behavior. In this paper, a modified social force model integrated by Voronoi diagram is proposed to calculate the detour direction and preferred velocity. Besides, with the consideration of locations and velocities of neighbor pedestrians, a Logit-based choice model is built to describe the detour direction choice. The proposed model is applied to analyze pedestrian dynamics in a corridor scenario with either unidirectional or bidirectional flow, and a building scenario in real-world. Simulation results show that the modified social force model including detour behavior could reduce the frequency of collision and deadlock, increase the average speed of the crowd, and predict more practical crowd dynamics with detour behavior. This model can also be potentially applied to understand the pedestrian dynamics and design emergent management strategies for crowd evacuations.

  2. RADIONUCLIDE TRANSPORT MODELS UNDER AMBIENT CONDITIONS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Magnuson

    2004-11-01

    The purpose of this model report is to document the unsaturated zone (UZ) radionuclide transport model, which evaluates, by means of three-dimensional numerical models, the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids in the UZ, under ambient conditions, from the repository horizon to the water table at Yucca Mountain, Nevada.

  3. Conditional shape models for cardiac motion estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Metz, Coert; Baka, Nora; Kirisli, Hortense

    2010-01-01

    We propose a conditional statistical shape model to predict patient specific cardiac motion from the 3D end-diastolic CTA scan. The model is built from 4D CTA sequences by combining atlas based segmentation and 4D registration. Cardiac motion estimation is, for example, relevant in the dynamic...

  4. Radionuclide Transport Models Under Ambient Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moridis, G.; Hu, Q.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of Revision 00 of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to evaluate (by means of 2-D semianalytical and 3-D numerical models) the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids in the unsaturated zone (UZ) under ambient conditions from the potential repository horizon to the water table at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada

  5. Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models

    CERN Document Server

    Willett, Roger; Brown, Kerry; Mathew, Joseph

    2012-01-01

    Asset Condition, Information Systems and Decision Models, is the second volume of the Engineering Asset Management Review Series. The manuscripts provide examples of implementations of asset information systems as well as some practical applications of condition data for diagnostics and prognostics. The increasing trend is towards prognostics rather than diagnostics, hence the need for assessment and decision models that promote the conversion of condition data into prognostic information to improve life-cycle planning for engineered assets. The research papers included here serve to support the on-going development of Condition Monitoring standards. This volume comprises selected papers from the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd World Congresses on Engineering Asset Management, which were convened under the auspices of ISEAM in collaboration with a number of organisations, including CIEAM Australia, Asset Management Council Australia, BINDT UK, and Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Chin...

  6. Modeling conditional correlations of asset returns

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of five...

  7. Modelling conditional heteroscedasticity in nonstationary series

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cizek, P.; Cizek, P.; Härdle, W.K.; Weron, R.

    2011-01-01

    A vast amount of econometrical and statistical research deals with modeling financial time series and their volatility, which measures the dispersion of a series at a point in time (i.e., conditional variance). Although financial markets have been experiencing many shorter and longer periods of

  8. Adapting AIC to conditional model selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. van Ommen (Thijs)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn statistical settings such as regression and time series, we can condition on observed information when predicting the data of interest. For example, a regression model explains the dependent variables $y_1, \\ldots, y_n$ in terms of the independent variables $x_1, \\ldots, x_n$.

  9. Multiple equilibria and limit cycles in evolutonary games with Logit Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

    2012-01-01

    This note shows, by means of two simple, three-strategy games, the existence of stable periodic orbits and of multiple, interior steady states in a smooth version of the Best-Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and

  10. Multiple steady states, limit cycles and chaotic attractors in evolutionary games with Logit Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hommes, C.H.; Ochea, M.I.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates, by means of simple, three and four strategy games, the occurrence of periodic and chaotic behaviour in a smooth version of the Best Response Dynamics, the Logit Dynamics. The main finding is that, unlike Replicator Dynamics, generic Hopf bifurcation and thus, stable limit

  11. Modelling speech intelligibility in adverse conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Søren; Dau, Torsten

    2013-01-01

    Jørgensen and Dau (J Acoust Soc Am 130:1475-1487, 2011) proposed the speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM) in an attempt to overcome the limitations of the classical speech transmission index (STI) and speech intelligibility index (SII) in conditions with nonlinearly processed speech...... subjected to phase jitter, a condition in which the spectral structure of the intelligibility of speech signal is strongly affected, while the broadband temporal envelope is kept largely intact. In contrast, the effects of this distortion can be predicted -successfully by the spectro-temporal modulation...... suggest that the SNRenv might reflect a powerful decision metric, while some explicit across-frequency analysis seems crucial in some conditions. How such across-frequency analysis is "realized" in the auditory system remains unresolved....

  12. Modeling pedestrian gap crossing index under mixed traffic condition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naser, Mohamed M; Zulkiple, Adnan; Al Bargi, Walid A; Khalifa, Nasradeen A; Daniel, Basil David

    2017-12-01

    There are a variety of challenges faced by pedestrians when they walk along and attempt to cross a road, as the most recorded accidents occur during this time. Pedestrians of all types, including both sexes with numerous aging groups, are always subjected to risk and are characterized as the most exposed road users. The increased demand for better traffic management strategies to reduce the risks at intersections, improve quality traffic management, traffic volume, and longer cycle time has further increased concerns over the past decade. This paper aims to develop a sustainable pedestrian gap crossing index model based on traffic flow density. It focusses on the gaps accepted by pedestrians and their decision for street crossing, where (Log-Gap) logarithm of accepted gaps was used to optimize the result of a model for gap crossing behavior. Through a review of extant literature, 15 influential variables were extracted for further empirical analysis. Subsequently, data from the observation at an uncontrolled mid-block in Jalan Ampang in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia was gathered and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Binary Logit Model (BLM) techniques were employed to analyze the results. From the results, different pedestrian behavioral characteristics were considered for a minimum gap size model, out of which only a few (four) variables could explain the pedestrian road crossing behavior while the remaining variables have an insignificant effect. Among the different variables, age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and crossing were the most influential variables. The study concludes that pedestrians' decision to cross the street depends on the pedestrian age, rolling gap, vehicle type, and size of traffic gap before crossing. The inferences from these models will be useful to increase pedestrian safety and performance evaluation of uncontrolled midblock road crossings in developing countries. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Modelling sulfamethoxazole degradation under different redox conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Vila, X.; Rodriguez-Escales, P.

    2015-12-01

    Sulfamethoxazole (SMX) is a low adsorptive, polar, sulfonamide antibiotic, widely present in aquatic environments. Degradation of SMX in subsurface porous media is spatially and temporally variable, depending on various environmental factors such as in situ redox potential, availability of nutrients, local soil characteristics, and temperature. It has been reported that SMX is better degraded under anoxic conditions and by co-metabolism processes. In this work, we first develop a conceptual model of degradation of SMX under different redox conditions (denitrification and iron reducing conditions), and second, we construct a mathematical model that allows reproducing different experiments of SMX degradation reported in the literature. The conceptual model focuses on the molecular behavior and contemplates the formation of different metabolites. The model was validated using the experimental data from Barbieri et al. (2012) and Mohatt et al. (2011). It adequately reproduces the reversible degradation of SMX under the presence of nitrite as an intermediate product of denitrification. In those experiments degradation was mediated by the transient formation of a diazonium cation, which was considered responsible of the substitution of the amine radical by a nitro radical, forming the 4-nitro-SMX. The formation of this metabolite is a reversible process, so that once the concentration of nitrite was back to zero due to further advancement of denitrification, the concentration of SMX was fully recovered. The forward reaction, formation of 4-nitro SMX, was modeled considering a kinetic of second order, whereas the backward reaction, dissociation of 4-nitro-SMX back to the original compound, could be modeled with a first order degradation reaction. Regarding the iron conditions, SMX was degraded due to the oxidation of iron (Fe2+), which was previously oxidized from goethite due to the degradation of a pool of labile organic carbon. As the oxidation of iron occurred on the

  14. Statistical models based on conditional probability distributions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayanan, R.S.

    1991-10-01

    We present a formulation of statistical mechanics models based on conditional probability distribution rather than a Hamiltonian. We show that it is possible to realize critical phenomena through this procedure. Closely linked with this formulation is a Monte Carlo algorithm, in which a configuration generated is guaranteed to be statistically independent from any other configuration for all values of the parameters, in particular near the critical point. (orig.)

  15. FACTORS THAT AFFECT TRANSPORT MODE PREFERENCE FOR GRADUATE STUDENTS IN THE NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF MALAYSIA BY LOGIT METHOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ALI AHMED MOHAMMED

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available A study was carried out to examine the perceptions and preferences of students on choosing the type of transportation for their travels in university campus. This study focused on providing personal transport users road transport alternatives as a countermeasure aimed at shifting car users to other modes of transportation. Overall 456 questionnaires were conducted to develop a choice of transportation mode preferences. Consequently, Logit model and SPSS were used to identify the factors that affect the determination of the choice of transportation mode. Results indicated that by reducing travel time by 70% the amount of private cars users will be reduced by 84%, while reduction the travel cost was found to be highly improving the public modes of utilization. This study revealed positive aspects is needed to shift travellers from private modes to public. The positive aspect contributes to travel time and travel cost reduction, hence improving the services, whereby contributing to sustainability.

  16. Modelling Multivariate Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with the Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we propose a multivariate GARCH model with a time-varying conditional correlation structure. The new Double Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model extends the Smooth Transition Conditional Correlation GARCH model of Silvennoinen and Ter¨asvirta (2005) by including...... another variable according to which the correlations change smoothly between states of constant correlations. A Lagrange multiplier test is derived to test the constancy of correlations against the DSTCC-GARCH model, and another one to test for another transition in the STCC-GARCH framework. In addition......, other specification tests, with the aim of aiding the model building procedure, are considered. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided. The model is applied to a selection of world stock indices, and it is found that time is an important factor affecting...

  17. Circular Conditional Autoregressive Modeling of Vector Fields.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modlin, Danny; Fuentes, Montse; Reich, Brian

    2012-02-01

    As hurricanes approach landfall, there are several hazards for which coastal populations must be prepared. Damaging winds, torrential rains, and tornadoes play havoc with both the coast and inland areas; but, the biggest seaside menace to life and property is the storm surge. Wind fields are used as the primary forcing for the numerical forecasts of the coastal ocean response to hurricane force winds, such as the height of the storm surge and the degree of coastal flooding. Unfortunately, developments in deterministic modeling of these forcings have been hindered by computational expenses. In this paper, we present a multivariate spatial model for vector fields, that we apply to hurricane winds. We parameterize the wind vector at each site in polar coordinates and specify a circular conditional autoregressive (CCAR) model for the vector direction, and a spatial CAR model for speed. We apply our framework for vector fields to hurricane surface wind fields for Hurricane Floyd of 1999 and compare our CCAR model to prior methods that decompose wind speed and direction into its N-S and W-E cardinal components.

  18. Modelling cladding response to changing conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tulkki, Ville; Ikonen, Timo [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland ltd (Finland)

    2016-11-15

    The cladding of the nuclear fuel is subjected to varying conditions during fuel reactor life. Load drops and reversals can be modelled by taking cladding viscoelastic behaviour into account. Viscoelastic contribution to the deformation of metals is usually considered small enough to be ignored, and in many applications it merely contributes to the primary part of the creep curve. With nuclear fuel cladding the high temperature and irradiation as well as the need to analyse the variable load all emphasise the need to also inspect the viscoelasticity of the cladding.

  19. Modelling Danish local CHP on market conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Hans V.; Riisom, Jannik; Schaumburg-Müller, Camilla

    2004-01-01

    with the liberalisation process of the energy sectors of the EU countries, it is however anticipated that Danish local CHP are to begin operating on market conditions within the year 2005. This means that the income that the local CHPs previously gained from selling electricity at the feed-in tariff is replaced in part...... the consequences of acting in a liberalised market for a given CHP plant, based on the abovementioned bottom-up model. The key assumption determining the bottom line is the electricity spot price. The formation of the spot price in the Nordic area depends heavily upon the state of the water reservoirs in Norway...

  20. Radionuclide Transport Models Under Ambient Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moridis, G.; Hu, Q.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to evaluate (by means of 2-D semianalytical and 3-D numerical models) the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids in the unsaturated zone (UZ) under ambient conditions from the potential repository horizon to the water table at Yucca Mountain (YM), Nevada. This is in accordance with the ''AMR Development Plan U0060, Radionuclide Transport Models Under Ambient Conditions'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a). This AMR supports the UZ Flow and Transport Process Model Report (PMR). This AMR documents the UZ Radionuclide Transport Model (RTM). This model considers: the transport of radionuclides through fractured tuffs; the effects of changes in the intensity and configuration of fracturing from hydrogeologic unit to unit; colloid transport; physical and retardation processes and the effects of perched water. In this AMR they document the capabilities of the UZ RTM, which can describe flow (saturated and/or unsaturated) and transport, and accounts for (a) advection, (b) molecular diffusion, (c) hydrodynamic dispersion (with full 3-D tensorial representation), (d) kinetic or equilibrium physical and/or chemical sorption (linear, Langmuir, Freundlich or combined), (e) first-order linear chemical reaction, (f) radioactive decay and tracking of daughters, (g) colloid filtration (equilibrium, kinetic or combined), and (h) colloid-assisted solute transport. Simulations of transport of radioactive solutes and colloids (incorporating the processes described above) from the repository horizon to the water table are performed to support model development and support studies for Performance Assessment (PA). The input files for these simulations include transport parameters obtained from other AMRs (i.e., CRWMS M and O 1999d, e, f, g, h; 2000a, b, c, d). When not available, the parameter values used are obtained from the literature. The results of the simulations are used to evaluate the transport of radioactive solutes and colloids, and

  1. Modeling speech intelligibility in adverse conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dau, Torsten

    2012-01-01

    ) in conditions with nonlinearly processed speech. Instead of considering the reduction of the temporal modulation energy as the intelligibility metric, as assumed in the STI, the sEPSM applies the signal-to-noise ratio in the envelope domain (SNRenv). This metric was shown to be the key for predicting...... understanding speech when more than one person is talking, even when reduced audibility has been fully compensated for by a hearing aid. The reasons for these difficulties are not well understood. This presentation highlights recent concepts of the monaural and binaural signal processing strategies employed...... by the normal as well as impaired auditory system. Jørgensen and Dau [(2011). J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 130, 1475-1487] proposed the speech-based envelope power spectrum model (sEPSM) in an attempt to overcome the limitations of the classical speech transmission index (STI) and speech intelligibility index (SII...

  2. Pricing and lot sizing optimization in a two-echelon supply chain with a constrained Logit demand function

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeison Díaz-Mateus

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Decision making in supply chains is influenced by demand variations, and hence sales, purchase orders and inventory levels are therefore concerned. This paper presents a non-linear optimization model for a two-echelon supply chain, for a unique product. In addition, the model includes the consumers’ maximum willingness to pay, taking socioeconomic differences into account. To do so, the constrained multinomial logit for discrete choices is used to estimate demand levels. Then, a metaheuristic approach based on particle swarm optimization is proposed to determine the optimal product sales price and inventory coordination variables. To validate the proposed model, a supply chain of a technological product was chosen and three scenarios are analyzed: discounts, demand segmentation and demand overestimation. Results are analyzed on the basis of profits, lotsizing and inventory turnover and market share. It can be concluded that the maximum willingness to pay must be taken into consideration, otherwise fictitious profits may mislead decision making, and although the market share would seem to improve, overall profits are not in fact necessarily better.

  3. UN MODELO LOGIT PARA LA FRAGILIDAD DEL SISTEMA FINANCIERO VENEZOLANO DENTRO DEL CONTEXTO DE LOS PROCESOS DE FUSIÓN E INTERVENCIÓN | A LOGIT APPROACH OF THE VENEZUELAN FINANCIAL SYSTEM WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF MERGER AND INTERVENTION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    César Rubicundo

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In Venezuela there have been more than 30 mergers, after the approval of the Banking Act in 1999, since from 103 institutions, the financial system closed the year 2013 with 35 brokerage firms, which represents a decrease of 66% due to 20 coalitions, 30 transformations and 18 settlements. Therefore, an analysis is proposed of the current economic situation of the financial system in the context of mergers and interventions, considering internal and external factors according to the constituted capital. The study was based on information from 37 private capital institutions and 04 public institutions, between January 2009 and December 2013. The previous analysis for privately held banks, showed that these institutions have a 78.40% chance of not incurring in situations of fragility; while the State capital banks have 83.30% of surviving in the market. As for the estimated logit models, it was found that the liquidity ratio, ROE, management index and inflation, are components that push towards a fragile situation for privately held banks, with a probability forecast of fragility. With regard to the state capital banks, this situation is explained by a 62.50% equity index, ROE, and inflation. A probability of stability for these banks is expected. The joint model forecasted a probability of a stable financial system for the coming months.

  4. Modeling individual and collective opinion in online social networks: drivers of choice behavior and effects of marketing interventions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koster, S.E.; Langley, D.J.

    2013-01-01

    We investigate factors influencing choice behavior in online social networks. We use twitter data from a Dutch television talent show. In study one, we implement a nested conditional logit model with latent classes. We find heterogeneous effects. For two latent classes, cognitive factors most

  5. Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-12-31

    Transportation Systems Management and Operations (TSMO) is at a critical point in its development due to an explosion in data availability and analytics. Intelligent transportation systems (ITS) gathering data about weather and traffic conditions cou...

  6. Integrated Modeling for Road Condition Prediction (IMRCP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-01-17

    Intelligent transportation system deployments have enabled great advances in operational awareness and response based on the data they gather on the current state of the roadways. The next step in decision support is to forecast road conditions and b...

  7. Loss given default models incorporating macroeconomic variables for credit cards

    OpenAIRE

    Crook, J.; Bellotti, T.

    2012-01-01

    Based on UK data for major retail credit cards, we build several models of Loss Given Default based on account level data, including Tobit, a decision tree model, a Beta and fractional logit transformation. We find that Ordinary Least Squares models with macroeconomic variables perform best for forecasting Loss Given Default at the account and portfolio levels on independent hold-out data sets. The inclusion of macroeconomic conditions in the model is important, since it provides a means to m...

  8. The Accuracy of RADIANCE Software in Modelling Overcast Sky Condition

    OpenAIRE

    Baharuddin

    2013-01-01

    A validation study of the sky models of RADIANCE simulation software against the overcast sky condition has been carried out in order to test the accuracy of sky model of RADIANCE for modeling the overcast sky condition in Hong Kong. Two sets of data have been analysed. Firstly, data collected from a set of experiments using a physical scale model. In this experiment, the illuminance of four points inside the model was measured under real sky conditions. Secondly, the RADIANCE simulation has ...

  9. Conditional density estimation using fuzzy GARCH models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Almeida, R.J.; Bastürk, N.; Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.; Kruse, R.; Berthold, M.R.; Moewes, C.; Gil, M.A.; Grzegorzewski, P.; Hryniewicz, O.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. Time series data exhibits complex behavior including non-linearity and path-dependency. This paper proposes a flexible fuzzy GARCH model that can capture different properties of data, such as skewness, fat tails and multimodality in one single model. Furthermore, additional information and

  10. A managerial modernization model in crisis conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Ion VERBONCU; Ion PURCARU

    2009-01-01

    The improvement of the economic performances of Romanian enterprises facing crisis conditions could be achieved by means of promoting and implementing a range of managerial modernization methods. Among them we mention several factors pertaining to strategic management: redesigning the managerial system, implementing methodological management – with an emphasis on profit center management and other managerial tools which ensure process and organizational flexibility – and professionalizing...

  11. Conditional Poisson models: a flexible alternative to conditional logistic case cross-over analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armstrong, Ben G; Gasparrini, Antonio; Tobias, Aurelio

    2014-11-24

    The time stratified case cross-over approach is a popular alternative to conventional time series regression for analysing associations between time series of environmental exposures (air pollution, weather) and counts of health outcomes. These are almost always analyzed using conditional logistic regression on data expanded to case-control (case crossover) format, but this has some limitations. In particular adjusting for overdispersion and auto-correlation in the counts is not possible. It has been established that a Poisson model for counts with stratum indicators gives identical estimates to those from conditional logistic regression and does not have these limitations, but it is little used, probably because of the overheads in estimating many stratum parameters. The conditional Poisson model avoids estimating stratum parameters by conditioning on the total event count in each stratum, thus simplifying the computing and increasing the number of strata for which fitting is feasible compared with the standard unconditional Poisson model. Unlike the conditional logistic model, the conditional Poisson model does not require expanding the data, and can adjust for overdispersion and auto-correlation. It is available in Stata, R, and other packages. By applying to some real data and using simulations, we demonstrate that conditional Poisson models were simpler to code and shorter to run than are conditional logistic analyses and can be fitted to larger data sets than possible with standard Poisson models. Allowing for overdispersion or autocorrelation was possible with the conditional Poisson model but when not required this model gave identical estimates to those from conditional logistic regression. Conditional Poisson regression models provide an alternative to case crossover analysis of stratified time series data with some advantages. The conditional Poisson model can also be used in other contexts in which primary control for confounding is by fine

  12. Numerical modeling of materials under extreme conditions

    CERN Document Server

    Brown, Eric

    2014-01-01

    The book presents twelve state of the art contributions in the field of numerical modeling of materials subjected to large strain, high strain rates, large pressure and high stress triaxialities, organized into two sections. The first part is focused on high strain rate-high pressures such as those occurring in impact dynamics and shock compression related phenomena, dealing with material response identification, advanced modeling incorporating microstructure and damage, stress waves propagation in solids and structures response under impact. The latter part is focused on large strain-low strain rates applications such as those occurring in technological material processing, dealing with microstructure and texture evolution, material response at elevated temperatures, structural behavior under large strain and multi axial state of stress.

  13. The consumer’s choice among television displays: A multinomial logit approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Giovanni González Espitia

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The consumer’s choice over a bundle of products depends on observable and unobservable characteristics of goods and consumers. This choice is made in order to maximize utility subject to a budget constraint. At the same time, firms make product differentiation decisions to maximize profit. Quality is a form of differentiation. An example of this occurs in the TV market, where several displays are developed. Our objective is to determine the probability for a consumer of choosing a type of display from among five kinds: standard tube, LCD, plasma, projection and LED. Using a multinomial logit approach, we find that electronic appliances like DVDs and audio systems, as well as socioeconomic status, increase the probability of choosing a high-tech television display. Our empirical approximation contributes to further understanding rational consumer behavior through the theory of utility maximization and highlights the importance of studying market structure and analyzing changes in welfare and efficiency.

  14. Stability of Mixed-Strategy-Based Iterative Logit Quantal Response Dynamics in Game Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhuang, Qian; Di, Zengru; Wu, Jinshan

    2014-01-01

    Using the Logit quantal response form as the response function in each step, the original definition of static quantal response equilibrium (QRE) is extended into an iterative evolution process. QREs remain as the fixed points of the dynamic process. However, depending on whether such fixed points are the long-term solutions of the dynamic process, they can be classified into stable (SQREs) and unstable (USQREs) equilibriums. This extension resembles the extension from static Nash equilibriums (NEs) to evolutionary stable solutions in the framework of evolutionary game theory. The relation between SQREs and other solution concepts of games, including NEs and QREs, is discussed. Using experimental data from other published papers, we perform a preliminary comparison between SQREs, NEs, QREs and the observed behavioral outcomes of those experiments. For certain games, we determine that SQREs have better predictive power than QREs and NEs. PMID:25157502

  15. Using continuation-ratio logits to analyze the variation of the age composition of fish catches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kvist, Trine; Gislason, Henrik; Thyregod, Poul

    2000-01-01

    Major sources of information for the estimation of the size of the fish stocks and the rate of their exploitation are samples from which the age composition of catches may be determined However, the age composition in the catches often varies as a result of several factors. Stratification...... of the sampling is desirable, because it leads to better estimates of the age composition, and the corresponding variances and covariances. The analysis is impeded by the fact that the response is ordered categorical. This paper introduces an easily applicable method to analyze such data. The method combines...... be applied separately to each level of the logits. The method is illustrated by the analysis of age-composition data collected from the Danish sandeel fishery in the North Sea in 1993. The significance of possible sources of variation is evaluated, and formulae for estimating the proportions of each age...

  16. Sample size determination for logistic regression on a logit-normal distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Seongho; Heath, Elisabeth; Heilbrun, Lance

    2017-06-01

    Although the sample size for simple logistic regression can be readily determined using currently available methods, the sample size calculation for multiple logistic regression requires some additional information, such as the coefficient of determination ([Formula: see text]) of a covariate of interest with other covariates, which is often unavailable in practice. The response variable of logistic regression follows a logit-normal distribution which can be generated from a logistic transformation of a normal distribution. Using this property of logistic regression, we propose new methods of determining the sample size for simple and multiple logistic regressions using a normal transformation of outcome measures. Simulation studies and a motivating example show several advantages of the proposed methods over the existing methods: (i) no need for [Formula: see text] for multiple logistic regression, (ii) available interim or group-sequential designs, and (iii) much smaller required sample size.

  17. The impact of macroeconomic conditions on obesity in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latif, Ehsan

    2014-06-01

    The paper used longitudinal Canadian data from the National Population Health Survey to estimate the impact of macroeconomic conditions measured by provincial unemployment rate on individual obesity and BMI. To control for individual-specific unobserved heterogeneity, the study utilized the conditional fixed effect logit and fixed effects models. The study found that unemployment rate had a significant positive impact on the probability of being severely obese. The study also found that unemployment rate significantly increased BMI. However, the study did not find any significant impact of unemployment rate on the probability of being overweight or obese. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Modelling of future hydrogeological conditions at SFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmen, L.G.; Stigsson, M.

    2001-03-01

    The purpose is to estimate the future groundwater movements at the SFR repository and to produce input to the quantitative safety assessment of the SFR. The future flow pattern of the groundwater is of interest, since components of the waste emplaced in a closed and abandoned repository will dissolve in the groundwater and be transported by the groundwater to the ground surface. The study is based on a system analysis approach. Three-dimensional models were devised of the studied domain. The models include the repository tunnels and the surrounding rock mass with fracture zones. The formal models used for simulation of the groundwater flow are three-dimensional mathematical descriptions of the studied hydraulic system. The studied domain is represented on four scales - regional, local, semi local and detailed - forming four models with different resolutions: regional, local, semi local and detailed models. The local and detailed models include a detailed description of the tunnel system at SFR and of surrounding rock mass and fracture zones. In addition, the detailed model includes description of the different structures that take place inside the deposition tunnels. At the area studied, the shoreline will retreat due to the shore level displacement; this process is included in the models. The studied period starts at 2000 AD and continues until a steady state like situation is reached for the surroundings of the SFR at ca 6000 AD. The models predict that as long as the sea covers the ground above the SFR, the regional groundwater flow as well as the flow in the deposition tunnels are small. However, due to the shore level displacement the shoreline (the sea) will retreat. Because of the retreating shoreline, the general direction of the groundwater flow at SFR will change, from vertical upward to a more horizontal flow; the size of the groundwater flow will be increased as well. The present layout of the SFR includes five deposition tunnels: SILO, BMA, BLA, BTF1

  19. Model development for air conditioning system in heavy duty trucks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessels, J.T.B.A.; van den Bosch, P.P.J.; Zhang, Quansheng; Li, Shengbo Eben; Deng, Kun

    2016-01-01

    This chapter presents a modelling approach for the air conditioning (AC) system in heavy duty trucks. The presented model entails two major elements: a mechanical compressor model and a thermal AC model. The compressor model describes the massflow of the refrigerant as well as the mechanical power

  20. How bicycle level of traffic stress correlate with reported cyclist accidents injury severities: A geospatial and mixed logit analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Anderson, Jason C; Wang, Haizhong; Wang, Yinhai; Vogt, Rachel; Hernandez, Salvador

    2017-11-01

    Transportation agencies need efficient methods to determine how to reduce bicycle accidents while promoting cycling activities and prioritizing safety improvement investments. Many studies have used standalone methods, such as level of traffic stress (LTS) and bicycle level of service (BLOS), to better understand bicycle mode share and network connectivity for a region. However, in most cases, other studies rely on crash severity models to explain what variables contribute to the severity of bicycle related crashes. This research uniquely correlates bicycle LTS with reported bicycle crash locations for four cities in New Hampshire through geospatial mapping. LTS measurements and crash locations are compared visually using a GIS framework. Next, a bicycle injury severity model, that incorporates LTS measurements, is created through a mixed logit modeling framework. Results of the visual analysis show some geospatial correlation between higher LTS roads and "Injury" type bicycle crashes. It was determined, statistically, that LTS has an effect on the severity level of bicycle crashes and high LTS can have varying effects on severity outcome. However, it is recommended that further analyses be conducted to better understand the statistical significance and effect of LTS on injury severity. As such, this research will validate the use of LTS as a proxy for safety risk regardless of the recorded bicycle crash history. This research will help identify the clustering patterns of bicycle crashes on high-risk corridors and, therefore, assist with bicycle route planning and policy making. This paper also suggests low-cost countermeasures or treatments that can be implemented to address high-risk areas. Specifically, with the goal of providing safer routes for cyclists, such countermeasures or treatments have the potential to substantially reduce the number of fatalities and severe injuries. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  1. Modeling heat stress under different environmental conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carabaño, M J; Logar, B; Bormann, J; Minet, J; Vanrobays, M-L; Díaz, C; Tychon, B; Gengler, N; Hammami, H

    2016-05-01

    Renewed interest in heat stress effects on livestock productivity derives from climate change, which is expected to increase temperatures and the frequency of extreme weather events. This study aimed at evaluating the effect of temperature and humidity on milk production in highly selected dairy cattle populations across 3 European regions differing in climate and production systems to detect differences and similarities that can be used to optimize heat stress (HS) effect modeling. Milk, fat, and protein test day data from official milk recording for 1999 to 2010 in 4 Holstein populations located in the Walloon Region of Belgium (BEL), Luxembourg (LUX), Slovenia (SLO), and southern Spain (SPA) were merged with temperature and humidity data provided by the state meteorological agencies. After merging, the number of test day records/cows per trait ranged from 686,726/49,655 in SLO to 1,982,047/136,746 in BEL. Values for the daily average and maximum temperature-humidity index (THIavg and THImax) ranges for THIavg/THImax were largest in SLO (22-74/28-84) and shortest in SPA (39-76/46-83). Change point techniques were used to determine comfort thresholds, which differed across traits and climatic regions. Milk yield showed an inverted U-shaped pattern of response across the THI scale with a HS threshold around 73 THImax units. For fat and protein, thresholds were lower than for milk yield and were shifted around 6 THI units toward larger values in SPA compared with the other countries. Fat showed lower HS thresholds than protein traits in all countries. The traditional broken line model was compared with quadratic and cubic fits of the pattern of response in production to increasing heat loads. A cubic polynomial model allowing for individual variation in patterns of response and THIavg as heat load measure showed the best statistical features. Higher/lower producing animals showed less/more persistent production (quantity and quality) across the THI scale. The

  2. Boundary Conditions, Data Assimilation, and Predictability in Coastal Ocean Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Samelson, Roger M; Allen, John S; Egbert, Gary D; Kindle, John C; Snyder, Chris

    2007-01-01

    ...: The specific objectives of this research are to determine the impact on coastal ocean circulation models of open ocean boundary conditions from Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment (GODAE...

  3. The Role of Sister Cities' Staff Exchanges in Developing "Learning Cities": Exploring Necessary and Sufficient Conditions in Social Capital Development Utilizing Proportional Odds Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Patrick Henry; Takahashi, Akio; Anderson, Amy

    2015-06-24

    In the last half century former international adversaries have become cooperators through networking and knowledge sharing for decision making aimed at improving quality of life and sustainability; nowhere has this been more striking then at the urban level where such activity is seen as a key component in building "learning cities" through the development of social capital. Although mega-cities have been leaders in such efforts, mid-sized cities with lesser resource endowments have striven to follow by focusing on more frugal sister city type exchanges. The underlying thesis of our research is that great value can be derived from city-to-city exchanges through social capital development. However, such a study must differentiate between necessary and sufficient conditions. Past studies assumed necessary conditions were met and immediately jumped to demonstrating the existence of structural relationships by measuring networking while further assuming that the existence of such demonstrated a parallel development of cognitive social capital. Our research addresses this lacuna by stepping back and critically examining these assumptions. To accomplish this goal we use a Proportional Odds Modeling with a Cumulative Logit Link approach to demonstrate the existence of a common latent structure, hence asserting that necessary conditions are met.

  4. The Role of Sister Cities’ Staff Exchanges in Developing “Learning Cities”: Exploring Necessary and Sufficient Conditions in Social Capital Development Utilizing Proportional Odds Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Henry Buckley

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the last half century former international adversaries have become cooperators through networking and knowledge sharing for decision making aimed at improving quality of life and sustainability; nowhere has this been more striking then at the urban level where such activity is seen as a key component in building “learning cities” through the development of social capital. Although mega-cities have been leaders in such efforts, mid-sized cities with lesser resource endowments have striven to follow by focusing on more frugal sister city type exchanges. The underlying thesis of our research is that great value can be derived from city-to-city exchanges through social capital development. However, such a study must differentiate between necessary and sufficient conditions. Past studies assumed necessary conditions were met and immediately jumped to demonstrating the existence of structural relationships by measuring networking while further assuming that the existence of such demonstrated a parallel development of cognitive social capital. Our research addresses this lacuna by stepping back and critically examining these assumptions. To accomplish this goal we use a Proportional Odds Modeling with a Cumulative Logit Link approach to demonstrate the existence of a common latent structure, hence asserting that necessary conditions are met.

  5. The Role of Sister Cities’ Staff Exchanges in Developing “Learning Cities”: Exploring Necessary and Sufficient Conditions in Social Capital Development Utilizing Proportional Odds Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buckley, Patrick Henry; Takahashi, Akio; Anderson, Amy

    2015-01-01

    In the last half century former international adversaries have become cooperators through networking and knowledge sharing for decision making aimed at improving quality of life and sustainability; nowhere has this been more striking then at the urban level where such activity is seen as a key component in building “learning cities” through the development of social capital. Although mega-cities have been leaders in such efforts, mid-sized cities with lesser resource endowments have striven to follow by focusing on more frugal sister city type exchanges. The underlying thesis of our research is that great value can be derived from city-to-city exchanges through social capital development. However, such a study must differentiate between necessary and sufficient conditions. Past studies assumed necessary conditions were met and immediately jumped to demonstrating the existence of structural relationships by measuring networking while further assuming that the existence of such demonstrated a parallel development of cognitive social capital. Our research addresses this lacuna by stepping back and critically examining these assumptions. To accomplish this goal we use a Proportional Odds Modeling with a Cumulative Logit Link approach to demonstrate the existence of a common latent structure, hence asserting that necessary conditions are met. PMID:26114245

  6. Model checking conditional CSL for continuous-time Markov chains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Yang; Xu, Ming; Zhan, Naijun

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the model-checking problem of continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) with respect to conditional logic. To the end, we extend Continuous Stochastic Logic introduced in Aziz et al. (2000) [1] to Conditional Continuous Stochastic Logic (CCSL) by introducing a conditional...

  7. A Monte Carlo simulation study comparing linear regression, beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression at recovering average difference measures in a two sample design.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meaney, Christopher; Moineddin, Rahim

    2014-01-24

    In biomedical research, response variables are often encountered which have bounded support on the open unit interval--(0,1). Traditionally, researchers have attempted to estimate covariate effects on these types of response data using linear regression. Alternative modelling strategies may include: beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. This study employs a Monte Carlo simulation design to compare the statistical properties of the linear regression model to that of the more novel beta regression, variable-dispersion beta regression, and fractional logit regression models. In the Monte Carlo experiment we assume a simple two sample design. We assume observations are realizations of independent draws from their respective probability models. The randomly simulated draws from the various probability models are chosen to emulate average proportion/percentage/rate differences of pre-specified magnitudes. Following simulation of the experimental data we estimate average proportion/percentage/rate differences. We compare the estimators in terms of bias, variance, type-1 error and power. Estimates of Monte Carlo error associated with these quantities are provided. If response data are beta distributed with constant dispersion parameters across the two samples, then all models are unbiased and have reasonable type-1 error rates and power profiles. If the response data in the two samples have different dispersion parameters, then the simple beta regression model is biased. When the sample size is small (N0 = N1 = 25) linear regression has superior type-1 error rates compared to the other models. Small sample type-1 error rates can be improved in beta regression models using bias correction/reduction methods. In the power experiments, variable-dispersion beta regression and fractional logit regression models have slightly elevated power compared to linear regression models. Similar results were observed if the

  8. VERIFICATION OF GEAR DYNAMIC MODEL IN DIFFERENT OPERATING CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grzegorz PERUŃ

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of verification of the drive system dynamic model with gear. Tests were carried out on the real object in different operating conditions. For the same assumed conditions were also carried out simulation studies. Comparison of the results obtained from those two series of tests helped determine the suitability of the model and verify the possibility of replacing experimental research by simulations with use of dynamic model.

  9. Assessment of slip factor models at off-design condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoon, Sung Ho; Baek, Je Hyun

    2000-01-01

    Slip factor is defined as an empirical factor being multiplied to theoretical energy transfer for the estimation of real work input of a centrifugal compressor. Researchers have tried to develop a simple empirical model, for a century, to predict a slip factor. However most these models were developed on the condition of design point assuming inviscid flow. So these models often fail to predict a correct slip factor at off-design condition. In this study, we summarized various slip factor models and compared these models with experimental and numerical data at off-design condition. As a result of this study, Wiesner's and Paeng and Chung's models are applicable for radial impeller, but all the models are not suitable for backswept impeller. Finally, the essential avenues for future study is discussed

  10. Sensitivity of a Simulated Derecho Event to Model Initial Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei

    2014-05-01

    Since 2003, the MMM division at NCAR has been experimenting cloud-permitting scale weather forecasting using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Over the years, we've tested different model physics, and tried different initial and boundary conditions. Not surprisingly, we found that the model's forecasts are more sensitive to the initial conditions than model physics. In 2012 real-time experiment, WRF-DART (Data Assimilation Research Testbed) at 15 km was employed to produce initial conditions for twice-a-day forecast at 3 km. On June 29, this forecast system captured one of the most destructive derecho event on record. In this presentation, we will examine forecast sensitivity to different model initial conditions, and try to understand the important features that may contribute to the success of the forecast.

  11. Conditional Correlation Models of Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Nonstationary GARCH Equations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Cristina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    -run and the short-run dynamic behaviour of the volatilities. The structure of the conditional correlation matrix is assumed to be either time independent or to vary over time. We apply our model to pairs of seven daily stock returns belonging to the S&P 500 composite index and traded at the New York Stock Exchange......In this paper we investigate the effects of careful modelling the long-run dynamics of the volatilities of stock market returns on the conditional correlation structure. To this end we allow the individual unconditional variances in Conditional Correlation GARCH models to change smoothly over time...... by incorporating a nonstationary component in the variance equations. The modelling technique to determine the parametric structure of this time-varying component is based on a sequence of specification Lagrange multiplier-type tests derived in Amado and Teräsvirta (2011). The variance equations combine the long...

  12. Fault condition stress analysis of NET 16 TF coil model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jong, C.T.J.

    1992-04-01

    As part of the design process of the NET/ITER toroidal field coils (TFCs), the mechanical behaviour of the magnetic system under fault conditions has to be analysed in some detail. Under fault conditions, either electrical or mechanical, the magnetic loading of the coils becomes extreme and further mechanical failure of parts of the overall structure might occur (e.g. failure of the coil, gravitational support, intercoil structure). The mechanical behaviour of the magnetic system under fault conditions has been analysed with a finite element model of the complete TFC system. The analysed fault conditions consist of: a thermal fault, electrical faults and mechanical faults. The mechanical faults have been applied simultaneously with an electrical fault. This report described the work carried out to create the finite element model of 16 TFCs and contains an extensive presentation of the results, obtained with this model, of a normal operating condition analysis and 9 fault condition analyses. Chapter 2-5 contains a detailed description of the finite element model, boundary conditions and loading conditions of the analyses made. Chapters 2-4 can be skipped if the reader is only interested in results. To understand the results presented chapter 6 is recommended, which contains a detailed description of all analysed fault conditions. The dimensions and geometry of the model correspond to the status of the NET/ITER TFC design of May 1990. Compared with previous models of the complete magnetic system, the finite element model of 16 TFCs is 'detailed', and can be used for linear elastic analysis with faulted loads. (author). 8 refs.; 204 figs.; 134 tabs

  13. Development of plant condition measurement - The Jimah Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, Roy F.; Syuhaimi, Mohd; Mazli, Mohammad; Kamarudin, Nurliyana; Maniza Othman, Faiz

    2012-05-01

    The Jimah Model is an information management model. The model has been designed to facilitate analysis of machine condition by integrating diagnostic data with quantitative and qualitative information. The model treats data as a single strand of information - metaphorically a 'genome' of data. The 'Genome' is structured to be representative of plant function and identifies the condition of selected components (or genes) in each machine. To date in industry, computer aided work processes used with traditional industrial practices, have been unable to consistently deliver a standard of information suitable for holistic evaluation of machine condition and change. Significantly the reengineered site strategies necessary for implementation of this "data genome concept" have resulted in enhanced knowledge and management of plant condition. In large plant with high initial equipment cost and subsequent high maintenance costs, accurate measurement of major component condition becomes central to whole of life management and replacement decisions. A case study following implementation of the model at a major power station site in Malaysia (Jimah) shows that modeling of plant condition and wear (in real time) can be made a practical reality.

  14. Development of plant condition measurement - The Jimah Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, Roy F; Syuhaimi, Mohd; Mazli, Mohammad; Kamarudin, Nurliyana; Othman, Faiz Maniza

    2012-01-01

    The Jimah Model is an information management model. The model has been designed to facilitate analysis of machine condition by integrating diagnostic data with quantitative and qualitative information. The model treats data as a single strand of information - metaphorically a 'genome' of data. The 'Genome' is structured to be representative of plant function and identifies the condition of selected components (or genes) in each machine. To date in industry, computer aided work processes used with traditional industrial practices, have been unable to consistently deliver a standard of information suitable for holistic evaluation of machine condition and change. Significantly the reengineered site strategies necessary for implementation of this 'data genome concept' have resulted in enhanced knowledge and management of plant condition. In large plant with high initial equipment cost and subsequent high maintenance costs, accurate measurement of major component condition becomes central to whole of life management and replacement decisions. A case study following implementation of the model at a major power station site in Malaysia (Jimah) shows that modeling of plant condition and wear (in real time) can be made a practical reality.

  15. Testing and modelling autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity of streamflow processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Wang

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Conventional streamflow models operate under the assumption of constant variance or season-dependent variances (e.g. ARMA (AutoRegressive Moving Average models for deseasonalized streamflow series and PARMA (Periodic AutoRegressive Moving Average models for seasonal streamflow series. However, with McLeod-Li test and Engle's Lagrange Multiplier test, clear evidences are found for the existence of autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (i.e. the ARCH (AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity effect, a nonlinear phenomenon of the variance behaviour, in the residual series from linear models fitted to daily and monthly streamflow processes of the upper Yellow River, China. It is shown that the major cause of the ARCH effect is the seasonal variation in variance of the residual series. However, while the seasonal variation in variance can fully explain the ARCH effect for monthly streamflow, it is only a partial explanation for daily flow. It is also shown that while the periodic autoregressive moving average model is adequate in modelling monthly flows, no model is adequate in modelling daily streamflow processes because none of the conventional time series models takes the seasonal variation in variance, as well as the ARCH effect in the residuals, into account. Therefore, an ARMA-GARCH (Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity error model is proposed to capture the ARCH effect present in daily streamflow series, as well as to preserve seasonal variation in variance in the residuals. The ARMA-GARCH error model combines an ARMA model for modelling the mean behaviour and a GARCH model for modelling the variance behaviour of the residuals from the ARMA model. Since the GARCH model is not followed widely in statistical hydrology, the work can be a useful addition in terms of statistical modelling of daily streamflow processes for the hydrological community.

  16. Weak diffusion limits of dynamic conditional correlation models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hafner, Christian M.; Laurent, Sebastien; Violante, Francesco

    The properties of dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models are still not entirely understood. This paper fills one of the gaps by deriving weak diffusion limits of a modified version of the classical DCC model. The limiting system of stochastic differential equations is characterized...... by a diffusion matrix of reduced rank. The degeneracy is due to perfect collinearity between the innovations of the volatility and correlation dynamics. For the special case of constant conditional correlations, a non-degenerate diffusion limit can be obtained. Alternative sets of conditions are considered...

  17. Modeling highway travel time distribution with conditional probability models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliveira Neto, Francisco Moraes [ORNL; Chin, Shih-Miao [ORNL; Hwang, Ho-Ling [ORNL; Han, Lee [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (UTK)

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration's Office of Freight Management and Operations, the American Transportation Research Institute (ATRI) has developed performance measures through the Freight Performance Measures (FPM) initiative. Under this program, travel speed information is derived from data collected using wireless based global positioning systems. These telemetric data systems are subscribed and used by trucking industry as an operations management tool. More than one telemetric operator submits their data dumps to ATRI on a regular basis. Each data transmission contains truck location, its travel time, and a clock time/date stamp. Data from the FPM program provides a unique opportunity for studying the upstream-downstream speed distributions at different locations, as well as different time of the day and day of the week. This research is focused on the stochastic nature of successive link travel speed data on the continental United States Interstates network. Specifically, a method to estimate route probability distributions of travel time is proposed. This method uses the concepts of convolution of probability distributions and bivariate, link-to-link, conditional probability to estimate the expected distributions for the route travel time. Major contribution of this study is the consideration of speed correlation between upstream and downstream contiguous Interstate segments through conditional probability. The established conditional probability distributions, between successive segments, can be used to provide travel time reliability measures. This study also suggests an adaptive method for calculating and updating route travel time distribution as new data or information is added. This methodology can be useful to estimate performance measures as required by the recent Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st Century Act (MAP 21).

  18. A generalized conditional heteroscedastic model for temperature downscaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2014-11-01

    This study describes a method for deriving the time varying second order moment, or heteroscedasticity, of local daily temperature and its association to large Coupled Canadian General Circulation Models predictors. This is carried out by applying a multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) approach to construct the conditional variance-covariance structure between General Circulation Models (GCMs) predictors and maximum and minimum temperature time series during 1980-2000. Two MGARCH specifications namely diagonal VECH and dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) are applied and 25 GCM predictors were selected for a bivariate temperature heteroscedastic modeling. It is observed that the conditional covariance between predictors and temperature is not very strong and mostly depends on the interaction between the random process governing temporal variation of predictors and predictants. The DCC model reveals a time varying conditional correlation between GCM predictors and temperature time series. No remarkable increasing or decreasing change is observed for correlation coefficients between GCM predictors and observed temperature during 1980-2000 while weak winter-summer seasonality is clear for both conditional covariance and correlation. Furthermore, the stationarity and nonlinearity Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) and Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) tests showed that GCM predictors, temperature and their conditional correlation time series are nonlinear but stationary during 1980-2000 according to BDS and KPSS test results. However, the degree of nonlinearity of temperature time series is higher than most of the GCM predictors.

  19. FIDIC Conditions of Subcontract as a Model for General Conditions of Subcontract in Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Umer Zubair

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Fair allocation of risks in conditions of contract is pivotal for coordination, unhindered execution, dispute resolution and maintenance of positive relationship among the parties executing the contract. Pakistani construction industry despite subcontracting a large percentage of construction projects lacks standard conditions of subcontract and they are primarily based on the will of the prime contractor that is onerous for the subcontractor. Therefore in order to develop a model for the general conditions of subcontract in Pakistan the conditions proposed by Associated General Contractors of California, FIDIC in 1994 and 2011, Construction Industry Development Board Malaysia, American Institute of Architects and by the Government of Hong Kong were compared to determine the similarities and differences among them. Afterwards a questionnaire based on the significant provisions of these subcontracts was conducted in the construction industry of Pakistan to determine the appropriate conditions for model subcontract. The results of the survey were further subjected to discussions with the legal experts. Out of 35 suggestions made for the general conditions of subcontract 23 originated from FIDIC in which 20 are recommended by its 2011’s version. It can therefore be implemented in Pakistan with certain amendments and additions as proposed in light of conditions of other subcontracts and the results of the survey and discussions with legal experts.

  20. A note on intrinsic conditional autoregressive models for disconnected graphs

    KAUST Repository

    Freni-Sterrantino, Anna; Ventrucci, Massimo; Rue, Haavard

    2018-01-01

    In this note we discuss (Gaussian) intrinsic conditional autoregressive (CAR) models for disconnected graphs, with the aim of providing practical guidelines for how these models should be defined, scaled and implemented. We show how these suggestions can be implemented in two examples, on disease mapping.

  1. A new model for friction under shock conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dambakizi F.

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available This article is aimed at the developpement of a new model for friction under shock conditions. Thanks to a subgrid model and a specific Coulomb friction law, it takes into account the interface temperature and deformation but also the influence of asperities when the contact pressure is relatively low (≤ 3 GPa.

  2. Modeling the Conditional Covariance between Stock and Bond Returns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    P. de Goeij (Peter); W.A. Marquering (Wessel)

    2002-01-01

    textabstractTo analyze the intertemporal interaction between the stock and bond market returns, we allow the conditional covariance matrix to vary over time according to a multivariate GARCH model similar to Bollerslev, Engle and Wooldridge (1988). We extend the model such that it allows for

  3. A note on intrinsic conditional autoregressive models for disconnected graphs

    KAUST Repository

    Freni-Sterrantino, Anna

    2018-05-23

    In this note we discuss (Gaussian) intrinsic conditional autoregressive (CAR) models for disconnected graphs, with the aim of providing practical guidelines for how these models should be defined, scaled and implemented. We show how these suggestions can be implemented in two examples, on disease mapping.

  4. Fitting and Testing Conditional Multinormal Partial Credit Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hessen, David J.

    2012-01-01

    A multinormal partial credit model for factor analysis of polytomously scored items with ordered response categories is derived using an extension of the Dutch Identity (Holland in "Psychometrika" 55:5-18, 1990). In the model, latent variables are assumed to have a multivariate normal distribution conditional on unweighted sums of item…

  5. A Mixed Logit Model of Homeowner Preferences for Wildfire Hazard Reduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Holmes; John Loomis; Armando Gonzalez-Caban

    2010-01-01

    People living in the wildland-urban interface (WUI) are at greater risk of suffering major losses of property and life from wildfires. Over the past several decades the prevailing view has been that wildfire risk in rural areas was exogenous to the activities of homeowners. In response to catastrophic fires in the WUI over the past few years, recent approaches to fire...

  6. Facet-based analysis of vacation planning process : a binary mixed logit panel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

  7. Facet-based analysis of vacation planning processes : a binary mixed logit panel model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, Anna; Kemperman, Astrid; Timmermans, Harry

    2012-01-01

    This article documents the design and results of a study on vacation planning processes with a particular focus on aggregate relationships between the probability that a certain facet of the vacation decision has been decided at a particular point in time, as a function of lead time to the actual

  8. Identifying response styles: A latent-class bilinear multinomial logit model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Rosmalen, J.; van Herk, H.; Groenen, P.J.F.

    2010-01-01

    Respondents can vary strongly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit a variety of response styles, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article Is to investigate how response style and content of the items affect rating scale responses.

  9. Generalized Partial Least Squares Approach for Nominal Multinomial Logit Regression Models with a Functional Covariate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albaqshi, Amani Mohammed H.

    2017-01-01

    Functional Data Analysis (FDA) has attracted substantial attention for the last two decades. Within FDA, classifying curves into two or more categories is consistently of interest to scientists, but multi-class prediction within FDA is challenged in that most classification tools have been limited to binary response applications. The functional…

  10. Mixed multinomial logit model for out-of-home leisure activity choice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Grigolon, A.B.; Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    This paper documents the design and results of a study on the factors influencing the choice of out-of-home leisure activities. Influencing factors seem related to socio-demographic characteristics, personal preferences, characteristics of the built environment and other aspects of the activities

  11. INCLUSION OF THE LATENT PERSONALITY VARIABLE IN MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELS USING THE 16PF PSYCHOMETRIC TEST

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JORGE E. CÓRDOBA MAQUILÓN

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Los modelos de demanda de viajes utilizan principalmente los atributos modales y las características socioeconómicas como variables explicativas. También se ha establecido que las actitudes y percepciones influyen en el comportamiento de los usuarios. Sin embargo, las variables psicológicas del individuo condicionan la conducta del usuario. En este estudio se incluyó la variable latente personalidad, en la estimación del modelo híbrido de elección discreta, el cual constituye una buena alternativa para incorporar los efectos de los factores subjetivos. La variable latente personalidad se evaluó con la prueba psicométrica 16PF de validez internacional. El artículo analiza los resultados de la aplicación de este modelo a una población de empleados y docentes universitarios, y también propone un camino para la utilización de pruebas psicométricas en los modelos híbridos de elección discreta. Nuestros resultados muestran que los modelos híbridos que incluyen variables latentes psicológicas son superiores a los modelos tradicionales que ignoran los efectos de la conducta de los usuarios.

  12. Financial gradualism and banking crises in North Africa region: an investigation by a panel logit model

    OpenAIRE

    KHATTAB, Ahmed; IHADIYAN, Abid

    2017-01-01

    Abstract. In order to overcome the troubles of the crisis in the seventies, North African countries have adopted financial liberalization policies to enhance their economic growth. Moreover, these policies have affected the stability of their banking systems. The purpose of this study is to test the impact of financial liberalization on the probability of appearance of banking crises which covers a sample of four countries of the North Africa region during the period 1970-2003 by using a pane...

  13. Reasons for not buying a car : a probit-selection multinomial logit choice model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, Y.; Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2014-01-01

    Generating and maintaining gradients of cell density and extracellular matrix (ECM) components is a prerequisite for the development of functionality of healthy tissue. Therefore, gaining insights into the drivers of spatial organization of cells and the role of ECM during tissue morphogenesis is

  14. Minimum Wages and Teenagers' Enrollment--Employment Outcomes: A Multinominal Logit Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; Marcus, Alan J.

    1982-01-01

    This paper tests the hypothesis that the effect of minimum wage legislation on teenagers' education decisions is asymmetrical across family income classes, with the legislation inducing children from low-income families to reduce their levels of schooling and children from higher-income families to increase their educational attainment. (Author)

  15. Identifying Unknown Response Styles: A Latent-Class Bilinear Multinomial Logit Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    J.M. van Rosmalen (Joost); H. van Herk (Hester); P.J.F. Groenen (Patrick)

    2007-01-01

    textabstractRespondents can vary significantly in the way they use rating scales. Specifically, respondents can exhibit varying degrees of response style, which threatens the validity of the responses. The purpose of this article is to investigate to what extent rating scale responses show response

  16. Standard Model Vacuum Stability and Weyl Consistency Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antipin, Oleg; Gillioz, Marc; Krog, Jens

    2013-01-01

    At high energy the standard model possesses conformal symmetry at the classical level. This is reflected at the quantum level by relations between the different beta functions of the model. These relations are known as the Weyl consistency conditions. We show that it is possible to satisfy them...... order by order in perturbation theory, provided that a suitable coupling constant counting scheme is used. As a direct phenomenological application, we study the stability of the standard model vacuum at high energies and compare with previous computations violating the Weyl consistency conditions....

  17. Classically integrable boundary conditions for symmetric-space sigma models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    MacKay, N.J.; Young, C.A.S.

    2004-01-01

    We investigate boundary conditions for the non-linear sigma model on the compact symmetric space G/H. The Poisson brackets and the classical local conserved charges necessary for integrability are preserved by boundary conditions which correspond to involutions which commute with the involution defining H. Applied to SO(3)/SO(2), the non-linear sigma model on S 2 , these yield the great circles as boundary submanifolds. Applied to GxG/G, they reproduce known results for the principal chiral model

  18. Conditioning a segmented stem profile model for two diameter measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raymond L. Czaplewski; Joe P. Mcclure

    1988-01-01

    The stem profile model of Max and Burkhart (1976) is conditioned for dbh and a second upper stem measurement. This model was applied to a loblolly pine data set using diameter outside bark at 5.3m (i.e., height of 17.3 foot Girard form class) as the second upper stem measurement, and then compared to the original, unconditioned model. Variance of residuals was reduced...

  19. URGAP: A gap conductance model for transient conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lassmann, K.; Pazdera, F.

    1983-01-01

    A gap conductance model, URGAP, has been developed with contributions from solid, fluid and radiation heat transfer components. Model parameters are easily available, independent of different combinations of material surfaces. The model parameters were fitted to 388 data points under reactor conditions. For model verification, another 274 data points of steel-steel and aluminium-aluminium interfaces, respectively, were used. For minor surface roughnesses normally prevailing in reactor fuel elements the model asymptotically yields Ross' and Stoute's model for the open gap, which is thus confirmed. Materials data were carefully checked over a wide range of temperatures. Special attention was paid to the contact term for high temperatures. Thus, the model can be applied to transients. The URGAP model is being used successfully in several codes (e.g. URANUS, SSYST). (author)

  20. Modelling conditional correlations of asset returns: A smooth transition approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Silvennoinen, Annastiina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM-test is d......In this paper we propose a new multivariate GARCH model with time-varying conditional correlation structure. The time-varying conditional correlations change smoothly between two extreme states of constant correlations according to a predetermined or exogenous transition variable. An LM......-test is derived to test the constancy of correlations and LM- and Wald tests to test the hypothesis of partially constant correlations. Analytical expressions for the test statistics and the required derivatives are provided to make computations feasible. An empirical example based on daily return series of ve...

  1. Verification of the karst flow model under laboratory controlled conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gotovac, Hrvoje; Andric, Ivo; Malenica, Luka; Srzic, Veljko

    2016-04-01

    Karst aquifers are very important groundwater resources around the world as well as in coastal part of Croatia. They consist of extremely complex structure defining by slow and laminar porous medium and small fissures and usually fast turbulent conduits/karst channels. Except simple lumped hydrological models that ignore high karst heterogeneity, full hydraulic (distributive) models have been developed exclusively by conventional finite element and finite volume elements considering complete karst heterogeneity structure that improves our understanding of complex processes in karst. Groundwater flow modeling in complex karst aquifers are faced by many difficulties such as a lack of heterogeneity knowledge (especially conduits), resolution of different spatial/temporal scales, connectivity between matrix and conduits, setting of appropriate boundary conditions and many others. Particular problem of karst flow modeling is verification of distributive models under real aquifer conditions due to lack of above-mentioned information. Therefore, we will show here possibility to verify karst flow models under the laboratory controlled conditions. Special 3-D karst flow model (5.6*2.6*2 m) consists of concrete construction, rainfall platform, 74 piezometers, 2 reservoirs and other supply equipment. Model is filled by fine sand (3-D porous matrix) and drainage plastic pipes (1-D conduits). This model enables knowledge of full heterogeneity structure including position of different sand layers as well as conduits location and geometry. Moreover, we know geometry of conduits perforation that enable analysis of interaction between matrix and conduits. In addition, pressure and precipitation distribution and discharge flow rates from both phases can be measured very accurately. These possibilities are not present in real sites what this model makes much more useful for karst flow modeling. Many experiments were performed under different controlled conditions such as different

  2. Modelling the meteorological forest fire niche in heterogeneous pyrologic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Angelis, Antonella; Ricotta, Carlo; Conedera, Marco; Pezzatti, Gianni Boris

    2015-01-01

    Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.

  3. Conformal Extensions of the Standard Model with Veltman Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Antipin, Oleg; Mojaza, Matin; Sannino, Francesco

    2014-01-01

    Using the renormalisation group framework we classify different extensions of the standard model according to their degree of naturality. A new relevant class of perturbative models involving elementary scalars is the one in which the theory simultaneously satisfies the Veltman conditions...... and is conformal at the classical level. We term these extensions perturbative natural conformal (PNC) theories. We show that PNC models are very constrained and thus highly predictive. Among the several PNC examples that we exhibit, we discover a remarkably simple PNC extension of the standard model in which...

  4. Selection Criteria in Regime Switching Conditional Volatility Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Chuffart

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A large number of nonlinear conditional heteroskedastic models have been proposed in the literature. Model selection is crucial to any statistical data analysis. In this article, we investigate whether the most commonly used selection criteria lead to choice of the right specification in a regime switching framework. We focus on two types of models: the Logistic Smooth Transition GARCH and the Markov-Switching GARCH models. Simulation experiments reveal that information criteria and loss functions can lead to misspecification ; BIC sometimes indicates the wrong regime switching framework. Depending on the Data Generating Process used in the experiments, great care is needed when choosing a criterion.

  5. Marine Vessel Models in Changing Operational Conditions - A Tutorial

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Perez, Tristan; Sørensen, Asgeir; Blanke, Mogens

    2006-01-01

    conditions (VOC). However, since marine systems operate in changing VOCs, there is a need to adapt the models. To date, there is no theory available to describe a general model valid across different VOCs due to the complexity of the hydrodynamic involved. It is believed that system identification could......This tutorial paper provides an introduction, from a systems perspective, to the topic of ship motion dynamics of surface ships. It presents a classification of parametric models currently used for monitoring and control of marine vessels. These models are valid for certain vessel operational...

  6. Partitioning uncertainty in streamflow projections under nonstationary model conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chawla, Ila; Mujumdar, P. P.

    2018-02-01

    Assessing the impacts of Land Use (LU) and climate change on future streamflow projections is necessary for efficient management of water resources. However, model projections are burdened with significant uncertainty arising from various sources. Most of the previous studies have considered climate models and scenarios as major sources of uncertainty, but uncertainties introduced by land use change and hydrologic model assumptions are rarely investigated. In this paper an attempt is made to segregate the contribution from (i) general circulation models (GCMs), (ii) emission scenarios, (iii) land use scenarios, (iv) stationarity assumption of the hydrologic model, and (v) internal variability of the processes, to overall uncertainty in streamflow projections using analysis of variance (ANOVA) approach. Generally, most of the impact assessment studies are carried out with unchanging hydrologic model parameters in future. It is, however, necessary to address the nonstationarity in model parameters with changing land use and climate. In this paper, a regression based methodology is presented to obtain the hydrologic model parameters with changing land use and climate scenarios in future. The Upper Ganga Basin (UGB) in India is used as a case study to demonstrate the methodology. The semi-distributed Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is set-up over the basin, under nonstationary conditions. Results indicate that model parameters vary with time, thereby invalidating the often-used assumption of model stationarity. The streamflow in UGB under the nonstationary model condition is found to reduce in future. The flows are also found to be sensitive to changes in land use. Segregation results suggest that model stationarity assumption and GCMs along with their interactions with emission scenarios, act as dominant sources of uncertainty. This paper provides a generalized framework for hydrologists to examine stationarity assumption of models before considering them

  7. Cosmological viability conditions for f(T) dark energy models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Setare, M.R.; Mohammadipour, N., E-mail: rezakord@ipm.ir, E-mail: N.Mohammadipour@uok.ac.ir [Department of Science, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2012-11-01

    Recently f(T) modified teleparallel gravity where T is the torsion scalar has been proposed as the natural gravitational alternative for dark energy. We perform a detailed dynamical analysis of these models and find conditions for the cosmological viability of f(T) dark energy models as geometrical constraints on the derivatives of these models. We show that in the phase space exists two cosmologically viable trajectory which (i) The universe would start from an unstable radiation point, then pass a saddle standard matter point which is followed by accelerated expansion de sitter point. (ii) The universe starts from a saddle radiation epoch, then falls onto the stable matter era and the system can not evolve to the dark energy dominated epoch. Finally, for a number of f(T) dark energy models were proposed in the more literature, the viability conditions are investigated.

  8. Relative efficiency of joint-model and full-conditional-specification multiple imputation when conditional models are compatible: The general location model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seaman, Shaun R; Hughes, Rachael A

    2018-06-01

    Estimating the parameters of a regression model of interest is complicated by missing data on the variables in that model. Multiple imputation is commonly used to handle these missing data. Joint model multiple imputation and full-conditional specification multiple imputation are known to yield imputed data with the same asymptotic distribution when the conditional models of full-conditional specification are compatible with that joint model. We show that this asymptotic equivalence of imputation distributions does not imply that joint model multiple imputation and full-conditional specification multiple imputation will also yield asymptotically equally efficient inference about the parameters of the model of interest, nor that they will be equally robust to misspecification of the joint model. When the conditional models used by full-conditional specification multiple imputation are linear, logistic and multinomial regressions, these are compatible with a restricted general location joint model. We show that multiple imputation using the restricted general location joint model can be substantially more asymptotically efficient than full-conditional specification multiple imputation, but this typically requires very strong associations between variables. When associations are weaker, the efficiency gain is small. Moreover, full-conditional specification multiple imputation is shown to be potentially much more robust than joint model multiple imputation using the restricted general location model to mispecification of that model when there is substantial missingness in the outcome variable.

  9. On the Conditioning of Machine-Learning-Assisted Turbulence Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Jinlong; Sun, Rui; Wang, Qiqi; Xiao, Heng

    2017-11-01

    Recently, several researchers have demonstrated that machine learning techniques can be used to improve the RANS modeled Reynolds stress by training on available database of high fidelity simulations. However, obtaining improved mean velocity field remains an unsolved challenge, restricting the predictive capability of current machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling approaches. In this work we define a condition number to evaluate the model conditioning of data-driven turbulence modeling approaches, and propose a stability-oriented machine learning framework to model Reynolds stress. Two canonical flows, the flow in a square duct and the flow over periodic hills, are investigated to demonstrate the predictive capability of the proposed framework. The satisfactory prediction performance of mean velocity field for both flows demonstrates the predictive capability of the proposed framework for machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling. With showing the capability of improving the prediction of mean flow field, the proposed stability-oriented machine learning framework bridges the gap between the existing machine-learning-assisted turbulence modeling approaches and the demand of predictive capability of turbulence models in real applications.

  10. On specification of initial conditions in turbulence models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rollin, Bertrand [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Andrews, Malcolm J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2010-12-01

    Recent research has shown that initial conditions have a significant influence on the evolution of a flow towards turbulence. This important finding offers a unique opportunity for turbulence control, but also raises the question of how to properly specify initial conditions in turbulence models. We study this problem in the context of the Rayleigh-Taylor instability. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability is an interfacial fluid instability that leads to turbulence and turbulent mixing. It occurs when a light fluid is accelerated in to a heavy fluid because of misalignment between density and pressure gradients. The Rayleigh-Taylor instability plays a key role in a wide variety of natural and man-made flows ranging from supernovae to the implosion phase of Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF). Our approach consists of providing the turbulence models with a predicted profile of its key variables at the appropriate time in accordance to the initial conditions of the problem.

  11. Modelling the Thermomechanical Conditions in Friction Stir Welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Henrik Nikolaj Blich

    Friction Stir Welding is a solid-state welding process invented by TWI in 1991. The FSW process is unique in the sense that joining of un-weldable alloys readily can be made. The thermomechanical conditions present in the workpiece during the welding process are of great interest since...... these control the properties of the weld. In the present work, a set of experimental, analytical and numerical analyses are carried out in order to evaluate the thermomechanical conditions descriptive for welding of aluminium, in this case AA2024-T3, under a specific set of welding parameters. Despite...... these specific data, the developed models can be applied for other alloys and welding parameters as well. A detailed experiment is carried out which constitutes the basis for the development and validation of the numerical and analytical models presented in this work. The contact condition at the tool...

  12. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  13. Compositional models and conditional independence in evidence theory

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Jiroušek, Radim; Vejnarová, Jiřina

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 52, č. 3 (2011), s. 316-334 ISSN 0888-613X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Evidence theory * Conditional independence * multidimensional models Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.948, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/MTR/jirousek-0370515.pdf

  14. Very short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind power with generalized logit-Normal distributions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2012-01-01

    and probability masses at the bounds. Both auto-regressive and conditional parametric auto-regressive models are considered for the dynamics of their location and scale parameters. Estimation is performed in a recursive least squares framework with exponential forgetting. The superiority of this proposal over......Very-short-term probabilistic forecasts, which are essential for an optimal management of wind generation, ought to account for the non-linear and double-bounded nature of that stochastic process. They take here the form of discrete–continuous mixtures of generalized logit–normal distributions...

  15. Modeling real conditions of 'Ukrytie' object in 3D measurement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Podbereznyj, S.S.

    2001-01-01

    The article covers a technology of creation on soft products basis for designing: AutoCad, and computer graphics and animation 3D Studio, 3DS MAX, of 3D model of geometrical parameters of current conditions of building structures, technological equipment, fuel-containing materials, concrete, water of ruined Unit 4, 'Ukryttia' object, of Chernobyl NPP. The model built using the above technology will be applied in the future as a basis when automating the design and computer modeling of processes at the 'Ukryttia' object

  16. Economic value added model upon conditions of banking company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlasta Kašparovská

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The content of this article is the application of the economic value added model (EVA upon the conditions of a banking company. Due to the character of banking business, which is in a different structure of financial sheet, it is not possible to use the standard model EVA for this banking company. The base of this article is the outlined of basic principles of the EVA mode in a non-banking company. Basic specified banking activity dissimilarities are analysed and a directed methodology adjustment of a model such as this, so that it is possible to use it for a banking company.

  17. A model to predict moisture conditions in concrete reactor containments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahs, M.; Nilsson, L.O.; Poyet, S.; L'Hostis, V.

    2015-01-01

    Moisture has an impact in many of the degradation mechanisms that appear in the structures of a nuclear power plant. Moisture conditions in a reactor containment wall have been simulated by using a hygro-thermal model of drying concrete. Methods to estimate the temperature dependency of the sorption isotherms and moisture transport properties is suggested and applied in the model. This temperature dependency is included as there is a temperature gradient present through the containment wall. The hygro-thermal model was applied on a full scale 3D model of a real reactor containment building and the concrete relative humidity has been computed at 4 different moments: 1, 10, 20 and 30 years. The results show that the major part of the concrete is not dried at all even after 30 years of operation. It is also clear that the temperature distribution inside the whole concrete volume is affected by the variable boundary conditions. It was concluded that the suggested hygro-thermal model was appropriate to use as a method to estimate the existing conditions in a PWR reactor containment wall

  18. Predicting birth weight with conditionally linear transformation models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Möst, Lisa; Schmid, Matthias; Faschingbauer, Florian; Hothorn, Torsten

    2016-12-01

    Low and high birth weight (BW) are important risk factors for neonatal morbidity and mortality. Gynecologists must therefore accurately predict BW before delivery. Most prediction formulas for BW are based on prenatal ultrasound measurements carried out within one week prior to birth. Although successfully used in clinical practice, these formulas focus on point predictions of BW but do not systematically quantify uncertainty of the predictions, i.e. they result in estimates of the conditional mean of BW but do not deliver prediction intervals. To overcome this problem, we introduce conditionally linear transformation models (CLTMs) to predict BW. Instead of focusing only on the conditional mean, CLTMs model the whole conditional distribution function of BW given prenatal ultrasound parameters. Consequently, the CLTM approach delivers both point predictions of BW and fetus-specific prediction intervals. Prediction intervals constitute an easy-to-interpret measure of prediction accuracy and allow identification of fetuses subject to high prediction uncertainty. Using a data set of 8712 deliveries at the Perinatal Centre at the University Clinic Erlangen (Germany), we analyzed variants of CLTMs and compared them to standard linear regression estimation techniques used in the past and to quantile regression approaches. The best-performing CLTM variant was competitive with quantile regression and linear regression approaches in terms of conditional coverage and average length of the prediction intervals. We propose that CLTMs be used because they are able to account for possible heteroscedasticity, kurtosis, and skewness of the distribution of BWs. © The Author(s) 2014.

  19. CFD Modeling of Non-Neutral Atmospheric Boundary Layer Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Koblitz, Tilman

    model results. A method is developed how to simulate the time-dependant non-neutral ABL flow over complex terrain: a precursor simulation is used to specify unsteady inlet boundary conditions on complex terrain domains. The advantage of the developed RANS model framework is its general applicability...... characteristics of neutral and non-neutral ABL flow. The developed ABL model significantly improves the predicted flow fields over both flat and complex terrain, when compared against neutral models and measurements....... cost than e.g. using large-eddy simulations. The developed ABL model is successfully validated using a range of different test cases with increasing complexity. Data from several large scale field campaigns, wind tunnel experiments, and previous numerical simulations is presented and compared against...

  20. Physical plausibility of cold star models satisfying Karmarkar conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fuloria, Pratibha [Kumaun University, Physics Dept., Almora (India); Pant, Neeraj [N.D.A., Maths Dept., Khadakwasla, Pune (India)

    2017-11-15

    In the present article, we have obtained a new well behaved solution to Einstein's field equations in the background of Karmarkar spacetime. The solution has been used for stellar modelling within the demand of current observational evidences. All the physical parameters are well behaved inside the stellar interior and our model satisfies all the required conditions to be physically realizable. The obtained compactness parameter is within the Buchdahl limit, i.e. 2M/R ≤ 8/9. The TOV equation is well maintained inside the fluid spheres. The stability of the models has been further confirmed by using Herrera's cracking method. The models proposed in the present work are compatible with observational data of compact objects 4U1608-52 and PSRJ1903+327. The necessary graphs have been shown to authenticate the physical viability of our models. (orig.)

  1. Physical plausibility of cold star models satisfying Karmarkar conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuloria, Pratibha; Pant, Neeraj

    2017-01-01

    In the present article, we have obtained a new well behaved solution to Einstein's field equations in the background of Karmarkar spacetime. The solution has been used for stellar modelling within the demand of current observational evidences. All the physical parameters are well behaved inside the stellar interior and our model satisfies all the required conditions to be physically realizable. The obtained compactness parameter is within the Buchdahl limit, i.e. 2M/R ≤ 8/9. The TOV equation is well maintained inside the fluid spheres. The stability of the models has been further confirmed by using Herrera's cracking method. The models proposed in the present work are compatible with observational data of compact objects 4U1608-52 and PSRJ1903+327. The necessary graphs have been shown to authenticate the physical viability of our models. (orig.)

  2. Physical plausibility of cold star models satisfying Karmarkar conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuloria, Pratibha; Pant, Neeraj

    2017-11-01

    In the present article, we have obtained a new well behaved solution to Einstein's field equations in the background of Karmarkar spacetime. The solution has been used for stellar modelling within the demand of current observational evidences. All the physical parameters are well behaved inside the stellar interior and our model satisfies all the required conditions to be physically realizable. The obtained compactness parameter is within the Buchdahl limit, i.e. 2M/R ≤ 8/9 . The TOV equation is well maintained inside the fluid spheres. The stability of the models has been further confirmed by using Herrera's cracking method. The models proposed in the present work are compatible with observational data of compact objects 4U1608-52 and PSRJ1903+327. The necessary graphs have been shown to authenticate the physical viability of our models.

  3. Electric machines modeling, condition monitoring, and fault diagnosis

    CERN Document Server

    Toliyat, Hamid A; Choi, Seungdeog; Meshgin-Kelk, Homayoun

    2012-01-01

    With countless electric motors being used in daily life, in everything from transportation and medical treatment to military operation and communication, unexpected failures can lead to the loss of valuable human life or a costly standstill in industry. To prevent this, it is important to precisely detect or continuously monitor the working condition of a motor. Electric Machines: Modeling, Condition Monitoring, and Fault Diagnosis reviews diagnosis technologies and provides an application guide for readers who want to research, develop, and implement a more effective fault diagnosis and condi

  4. Slarti: A boundary condition editor for a coupled climate model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mickelson, S. A.; Jacob, R. L.; Pierrehumbert, R.

    2006-12-01

    One of the largest barriers to making climate models more flexible is the difficulty in creating new boundary conditions, especially for "deep time" paleoclimate cases where continents are in different positions. Climate models consist of several mutually-interacting component models and the boundary conditions must be consistent between them. We have developed a program called Slarti which uses a Graphical User Interface and a set of consistency rules to aid researchers in creating new, consistent, boundary condition files for the Fast Ocean Atmosphere Model (FOAM). Users can start from existing mask, topography, or bathymetry data or can build a "world" entirely from scratch (e.g. a single island continent). Once a case has been started, users can modify mask, vegetation, bathymetry, topography, and river flow fields by drawing new data through a "paint" interface. Users activate a synchronization button which goes through the fields to eliminate inconsistencies. When the changes are complete and save is selected, Slarti creates all the necessary files for an initial run of FOAM. The data is edited at the highest resolution (the ocean-land surface in FOAM) and then interpolated to the atmosphere resolution. Slarti was implemented in Java to maintain portability across platforms. We also relied heavily on Java Swing components to create the interface. This allowed us to create an object-oriented interface that could be used on many different systems. Since Slarti allows users to visualize their changes, they are able to see areas that may cause problems when the model is ran. Some examples would be lakes from the river flow field and narrow trenches within the bathymetry. Through different checks and options available through its interface, Slarti makes the process of creating new boundary conditions for FOAM easier and faster while reducing the chance for user errors.

  5. Developed Hybrid Model for Propylene Polymerisation at Optimum Reaction Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Jakir Hossain Khan

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available A statistical model combined with CFD (computational fluid dynamic method was used to explain the detailed phenomena of the process parameters, and a series of experiments were carried out for propylene polymerisation by varying the feed gas composition, reaction initiation temperature, and system pressure, in a fluidised bed catalytic reactor. The propylene polymerisation rate per pass was considered the response to the analysis. Response surface methodology (RSM, with a full factorial central composite experimental design, was applied to develop the model. In this study, analysis of variance (ANOVA indicated an acceptable value for the coefficient of determination and a suitable estimation of a second-order regression model. For better justification, results were also described through a three-dimensional (3D response surface and a related two-dimensional (2D contour plot. These 3D and 2D response analyses provided significant and easy to understand findings on the effect of all the considered process variables on expected findings. To diagnose the model adequacy, the mathematical relationship between the process variables and the extent of polymer conversion was established through the combination of CFD with statistical tools. All the tests showed that the model is an excellent fit with the experimental validation. The maximum extent of polymer conversion per pass was 5.98% at the set time period and with consistent catalyst and co-catalyst feed rates. The optimum conditions for maximum polymerisation was found at reaction temperature (RT 75 °C, system pressure (SP 25 bar, and 75% monomer concentration (MC. The hydrogen percentage was kept fixed at all times. The coefficient of correlation for reaction temperature, system pressure, and monomer concentration ratio, was found to be 0.932. Thus, the experimental results and model predicted values were a reliable fit at optimum process conditions. Detailed and adaptable CFD results were capable

  6. Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions. Scoping calculations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaquet, O.; Namar, R. (In2Earth Modelling Ltd (Switzerland)); Jansson, P. (Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden))

    2010-10-15

    The potential impact of long-term climate changes has to be evaluated with respect to repository performance and safety. In particular, glacial periods of advancing and retreating ice sheet and prolonged permafrost conditions are likely to occur over the repository site. The growth and decay of ice sheets and the associated distribution of permafrost will affect the groundwater flow field and its composition. As large changes may take place, the understanding of groundwater flow patterns in connection to glaciations is an important issue for the geological disposal at long term. During a glacial period, the performance of the repository could be weakened by some of the following conditions and associated processes: - Maximum pressure at repository depth (canister failure). - Maximum permafrost depth (canister failure, buffer function). - Concentration of groundwater oxygen (canister corrosion). - Groundwater salinity (buffer stability). - Glacially induced earthquakes (canister failure). Therefore, the GAP project aims at understanding key hydrogeological issues as well as answering specific questions: - Regional groundwater flow system under ice sheet conditions. - Flow and infiltration conditions at the ice sheet bed. - Penetration depth of glacial meltwater into the bedrock. - Water chemical composition at repository depth in presence of glacial effects. - Role of the taliks, located in front of the ice sheet, likely to act as potential discharge zones of deep groundwater flow. - Influence of permafrost distribution on the groundwater flow system in relation to build-up and thawing periods. - Consequences of glacially induced earthquakes on the groundwater flow system. Some answers will be provided by the field data and investigations; the integration of the information and the dynamic characterisation of the key processes will be obtained using numerical modelling. Since most of the data are not yet available, some scoping calculations are performed using the

  7. Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions. Scoping calculations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquet, O.; Namar, R.; Jansson, P.

    2010-10-01

    The potential impact of long-term climate changes has to be evaluated with respect to repository performance and safety. In particular, glacial periods of advancing and retreating ice sheet and prolonged permafrost conditions are likely to occur over the repository site. The growth and decay of ice sheets and the associated distribution of permafrost will affect the groundwater flow field and its composition. As large changes may take place, the understanding of groundwater flow patterns in connection to glaciations is an important issue for the geological disposal at long term. During a glacial period, the performance of the repository could be weakened by some of the following conditions and associated processes: - Maximum pressure at repository depth (canister failure). - Maximum permafrost depth (canister failure, buffer function). - Concentration of groundwater oxygen (canister corrosion). - Groundwater salinity (buffer stability). - Glacially induced earthquakes (canister failure). Therefore, the GAP project aims at understanding key hydrogeological issues as well as answering specific questions: - Regional groundwater flow system under ice sheet conditions. - Flow and infiltration conditions at the ice sheet bed. - Penetration depth of glacial meltwater into the bedrock. - Water chemical composition at repository depth in presence of glacial effects. - Role of the taliks, located in front of the ice sheet, likely to act as potential discharge zones of deep groundwater flow. - Influence of permafrost distribution on the groundwater flow system in relation to build-up and thawing periods. - Consequences of glacially induced earthquakes on the groundwater flow system. Some answers will be provided by the field data and investigations; the integration of the information and the dynamic characterisation of the key processes will be obtained using numerical modelling. Since most of the data are not yet available, some scoping calculations are performed using the

  8. Condition Parameter Modeling for Anomaly Detection in Wind Turbines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yonglong Yan

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Data collected from the supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA system, used widely in wind farms to obtain operational and condition information about wind turbines (WTs, is of important significance for anomaly detection in wind turbines. The paper presents a novel model for wind turbine anomaly detection mainly based on SCADA data and a back-propagation neural network (BPNN for automatic selection of the condition parameters. The SCADA data sets are determined through analysis of the cumulative probability distribution of wind speed and the relationship between output power and wind speed. The automatic BPNN-based parameter selection is for reduction of redundant parameters for anomaly detection in wind turbines. Through investigation of cases of WT faults, the validity of the automatic parameter selection-based model for WT anomaly detection is verified.

  9. Mathematical modelling of unglazed solar collectors under extreme operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bunea, M.; Perers, Bengt; Eicher, S.

    2015-01-01

    average temperature levels at the evaporator. Simulation of these systems requires a collector model that can take into account operation at very low temperatures (below freezing) and under various weather conditions, particularly operation without solar irradiation.A solar collector mathematical model......Combined heat pumps and solar collectors got a renewed interest on the heating system market worldwide. Connected to the heat pump evaporator, unglazed solar collectors can considerably increase their efficiency, but they also raise the coefficient of performance of the heat pump with higher...... was found due to the condensation phenomenon and up to 40% due to frost under no solar irradiation. This work also points out the influence of the operating conditions on the collector's characteristics.Based on experiments carried out at a test facility, every heat flux on the absorber was separately...

  10. Modeling of composite synthesis in conditions of controlled thermal explosion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kukta, Yaroslav; Knyazeva, Anna

    2017-12-01

    The paper proposes the model for the titanium-based composite synthesis from powders of titanium and carbon of non-stoichiometric composition. The model takes into account the mixture heating from chamber walls, the dependence of liquidus and solidus temperatures on the composition of reacting mixture and the formation of possible irreversible phases. The reaction retardation by the reaction product is taken into consideration in kinetic laws. As an example, the results of temperature and conversion level calculation are presented for the system Ti-C with the summary reaction for different temperatures of chamber walls heating. It was revealed that the reaction retardation being the reaction product can be the cause of incomplete conversion in the thermal explosion conditions. Non-stoichiometric composition leads to the conditions of degenerated mode when some additional heating is necessary to complete the reaction.

  11. Stochastic modeling of consumer preferences for health care institutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malhotra, N K

    1983-01-01

    This paper proposes a stochastic procedure for modeling consumer preferences via LOGIT analysis. First, a simple, non-technical exposition of the use of a stochastic approach in health care marketing is presented. Second, a study illustrating the application of the LOGIT model in assessing consumer preferences for hospitals is given. The paper concludes with several implications of the proposed approach.

  12. Discounted cost model for condition-based maintenance optimization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weide, J.A.M. van der; Pandey, M.D.; Noortwijk, J.M. van

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents methods to evaluate the reliability and optimize the maintenance of engineering systems that are damaged by shocks or transients arriving randomly in time and overall degradation is modeled as a cumulative stochastic point process. The paper presents a conceptually clear and comprehensive derivation of formulas for computing the discounted cost associated with a maintenance policy combining both condition-based and age-based criteria for preventive maintenance. The proposed discounted cost model provides a more realistic basis for optimizing the maintenance policies than those based on the asymptotic, non-discounted cost rate criterion.

  13. Urban search mobile platform modeling in hindered access conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barankova, I. I.; Mikhailova, U. V.; Kalugina, O. B.; Barankov, V. V.

    2018-05-01

    The article explores the control system simulation and the design of the experimental model of the rescue robot mobile platform. The functional interface, a structural functional diagram of the mobile platform control unit, and a functional control scheme for the mobile platform of secure robot were modeled. The task of design a mobile platform for urban searching in hindered access conditions is realized through the use of a mechanical basis with a chassis and crawler drive, a warning device, human heat sensors and a microcontroller based on Arduino platforms.

  14. Simulating reservoir lithologies by an actively conditioned Markov chain model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Runhai; Luthi, Stefan M.; Gisolf, Dries

    2018-06-01

    The coupled Markov chain model can be used to simulate reservoir lithologies between wells, by conditioning them on the observed data in the cored wells. However, with this method, only the state at the same depth as the current cell is going to be used for conditioning, which may be a problem if the geological layers are dipping. This will cause the simulated lithological layers to be broken or to become discontinuous across the reservoir. In order to address this problem, an actively conditioned process is proposed here, in which a tolerance angle is predefined. The states contained in the region constrained by the tolerance angle will be employed for conditioning in the horizontal chain first, after which a coupling concept with the vertical chain is implemented. In order to use the same horizontal transition matrix for different future states, the tolerance angle has to be small. This allows the method to work in reservoirs without complex structures caused by depositional processes or tectonic deformations. Directional artefacts in the modeling process are avoided through a careful choice of the simulation path. The tolerance angle and dipping direction of the strata can be obtained from a correlation between wells, or from seismic data, which are available in most hydrocarbon reservoirs, either by interpretation or by inversion that can also assist the construction of a horizontal probability matrix.

  15. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David; Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko; Rhen, Ingvar

    2010-12-01

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  16. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Roberts, David; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Gylling, Bjoern; Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB, Stockholm (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during temperate climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Joyce et al. 2010/. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a Hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The Hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional' make use of a discrete fracture network (DFN) and equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 15,000 AD. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  17. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF MECHANICAL SYSTEM CONDITION IN DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. N. Mironov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers an estimation of a complicated mechanical system condition in dynamics with due account of material degradation and accumulation of micro-damages. An element of continuous medium has been simulated and described with the help of a discrete element. The paper contains description of a model for determination of mechanical system longevity in accordance with number of cycles and operational period.

  18. Modelling of air-conditioned and heated spaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moehl, U

    1987-01-01

    A space represents a complex system involving numerous components, manipulated variables and disturbances which need to be described if dynamic behaviour of space air is to be determined. A justifiable amount of simulation input is determined by the application of adjusted modelling of the individual components. The determination of natural air exchange in heated spaces and of space-air flow in air-conditioned space are a primary source of uncertainties. (orig.).

  19. The transferability of hydrological models under nonstationary climatic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Z. Li

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates issues involved in calibrating hydrological models against observed data when the aim of the modelling is to predict future runoff under different climatic conditions. To achieve this objective, we tested two hydrological models, DWBM and SIMHYD, using data from 30 unimpaired catchments in Australia which had at least 60 yr of daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, modified index of agreement (d1 and water balance error (WBE were used as performance criteria. We used a differential split-sample test to split up the data into 120 sub-periods and 4 different climatic sub-periods in order to assess how well the calibrated model could be transferred different periods. For each catchment, the models were calibrated for one sub-period and validated on the other three. Monte Carlo simulation was used to explore parameter stability compared to historic climatic variability. The chi-square test was used to measure the relationship between the distribution of the parameters and hydroclimatic variability. The results showed that the performance of the two hydrological models differed and depended on the model calibration. We found that if a hydrological model is set up to simulate runoff for a wet climate scenario then it should be calibrated on a wet segment of the historic record, and similarly a dry segment should be used for a dry climate scenario. The Monte Carlo simulation provides an effective and pragmatic approach to explore uncertainty and equifinality in hydrological model parameters. Some parameters of the hydrological models are shown to be significantly more sensitive to the choice of calibration periods. Our findings support the idea that when using conceptual hydrological models to assess future climate change impacts, a differential split-sample test and Monte Carlo simulation should be used to quantify uncertainties due to

  20. APPLICABILITY OF SIMILARITY CONDITIONS TO ANALOGUE MODELLING OF TECTONIC STRUCTURES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhail A. Goncharov

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The publication is aimed at comparing concepts of V.V. Belousov and M.V. Gzovsky, outstanding researchers who established fundamentals of tectonophysics in Russia, specifically similarity conditions in application to tectonophysical modeling. Quotations from their publications illustrate differences in their views. In this respect, we can reckon V.V. Belousov as a «realist» as he supported «the liberal point of view» [Methods of modelling…, 1988, p. 21–22], whereas M.V. Gzovsky can be regarded as an «idealist» as he believed that similarity conditions should be mandatorily applied to ensure correctness of physical modeling of tectonic deformations and structures [Gzovsky, 1975, pp. 88 and 94].Objectives of the present publication are (1 to be another reminder about desirability of compliance with similarity conditions in experimental tectonics; (2 to point out difficulties in ensuring such compliance; (3 to give examples which bring out the fact that similarity conditions are often met per se, i.e. automatically observed; (4 to show that modeling can be simplified in some cases without compromising quantitative estimations of parameters of structure formation.(1 Physical modelling of tectonic deformations and structures should be conducted, if possible, in compliance with conditions of geometric and physical similarity between experimental models and corresponding natural objects. In any case, a researcher should have a clear vision of conditions applicable to each particular experiment.(2 Application of similarity conditions is often challenging due to unavoidable difficulties caused by the following: a Imperfection of experimental equipment and technologies (Fig. 1 to 3; b uncertainties in estimating parameters of formation of natural structures, including main ones: structure size (Fig. 4, time of formation (Fig. 5, deformation properties of the medium wherein such structures are formed, including, first of all, viscosity (Fig. 6

  1. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with temperate climate conditions - Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joyce, Steven; Simpson, Trevor; Hartley, Lee; Applegate, David; Hoek, Jaap; Jackson, Peter; Swan, David (Serco Technical Consulting Services (United Kingdom)); Marsic, Niko (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Follin, Sven (SF GeoLogic AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different climate conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report concerns the modelling of a repository at the Forsmark site during temperate conditions; i.e. from post-closure and throughout the temperate period up until the receding shoreline leaves the modelling domain at around 12,000 AD. The collation and implementation of onsite hydrogeological and hydrogeochemical data from previous reports are used in the construction of a hydrogeological base case (reference case conceptualisation) and then in an examination of various areas of uncertainty within the current understanding by a series of model variants. The hydrogeological base case models at three different scales, 'repository', 'site' and 'regional', make use of continuous porous medium (CPM), equivalent continuous porous medium (ECPM) and discrete fracture network (DFN) models. The use of hydrogeological models allow for the investigation of the groundwater flow from a deep disposal facility to the biosphere and for the calculation of performance measures that will provide an input to the site performance assessment. The focus of the study described in this report has been to perform numerical simulations of the hydrogeological system from post-closure and throughout the temperate period. Besides providing quantitative results for the immediate temperate period following post-closure, these results are also intended to give a qualitative indication of the evolution of the groundwater system during future temperate periods within an ongoing cycle of glacial/inter-glacial events

  2. MENENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL MENGGUNAKAN MODEL CONDITIONAL MEAN VARIANCE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I GEDE ERY NISCAHYANA

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available When the returns of stock prices show the existence of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity, then conditional mean variance models are suitable method to model the behavior of the stocks. In this thesis, the implementation of the conditional mean variance model to the autocorrelated and heteroscedastic return was discussed. The aim of this thesis was to assess the effect of the autocorrelated and heteroscedastic returns to the optimal solution of a portfolio. The margin of four stocks, Fortune Mate Indonesia Tbk (FMII.JK, Bank Permata Tbk (BNLI.JK, Suryamas Dutamakmur Tbk (SMDM.JK dan Semen Gresik Indonesia Tbk (SMGR.JK were estimated by GARCH(1,1 model with standard innovations following the standard normal distribution and the t-distribution.  The estimations were used to construct a portfolio. The portfolio optimal was found when the standard innovation used was t-distribution with the standard deviation of 1.4532 and the mean of 0.8023 consisting of 0.9429 (94% of FMII stock, 0.0473 (5% of  BNLI stock, 0% of SMDM stock, 1% of  SMGR stock.

  3. Empirical models of wind conditions on Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buccola, Norman L.; Wood, Tamara M.

    2010-01-01

    Upper Klamath Lake is a large (230 square kilometers), shallow (mean depth 2.8 meters at full pool) lake in southern Oregon. Lake circulation patterns are driven largely by wind, and the resulting currents affect the water quality and ecology of the lake. To support hydrodynamic modeling of the lake and statistical investigations of the relation between wind and lake water-quality measurements, the U.S. Geological Survey has monitored wind conditions along the lakeshore and at floating raft sites in the middle of the lake since 2005. In order to make the existing wind archive more useful, this report summarizes the development of empirical wind models that serve two purposes: (1) to fill short (on the order of hours or days) wind data gaps at raft sites in the middle of the lake, and (2) to reconstruct, on a daily basis, over periods of months to years, historical wind conditions at U.S. Geological Survey sites prior to 2005. Empirical wind models based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Multivariate-Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) algorithms were compared. ANNs were better suited to simulating the 10-minute wind data that are the dependent variables of the gap-filling models, but the simpler MARS algorithm may be adequate to accurately simulate the daily wind data that are the dependent variables of the historical wind models. To further test the accuracy of the gap-filling models, the resulting simulated winds were used to force the hydrodynamic model of the lake, and the resulting simulated currents were compared to measurements from an acoustic Doppler current profiler. The error statistics indicated that the simulation of currents was degraded as compared to when the model was forced with observed winds, but probably is adequate for short gaps in the data of a few days or less. Transport seems to be less affected by the use of the simulated winds in place of observed winds. The simulated tracer concentration was similar between model results when

  4. Computational modeling for hexcan failure under core distruptive accidental conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sawada, T.; Ninokata, H.; Shimizu, A. [Tokyo Institute of Technology (Japan)

    1995-09-01

    This paper describes the development of computational modeling for hexcan wall failures under core disruptive accident conditions of fast breeder reactors. A series of out-of-pile experiments named SIMBATH has been analyzed by using the SIMMER-II code. The SIMBATH experiments were performed at KfK in Germany. The experiments used a thermite mixture to simulate fuel. The test geometry of SIMBATH ranged from single pin to 37-pin bundles. In this study, phenomena of hexcan wall failure found in a SIMBATH test were analyzed by SIMMER-II. Although the original model of SIMMER-II did not calculate any hexcan failure, several simple modifications made it possible to reproduce the hexcan wall melt-through observed in the experiment. In this paper the modifications and their significance are discussed for further modeling improvements.

  5. Modelling crop yield in Iberia under drought conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Andreia; Páscoa, Patrícia; Russo, Ana; Gouveia, Célia

    2017-04-01

    The improved assessment of the cereal yield and crop loss under drought conditions are essential to meet the increasing economy demands. The growing frequency and severity of the extreme drought conditions in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) has been likely responsible for negative impacts on agriculture, namely on crop yield losses. Therefore, a continuous monitoring of vegetation activity and a reliable estimation of drought impacts is crucial to contribute for the agricultural drought management and development of suitable information tools. This works aims to assess the influence of drought conditions in agricultural yields over the IP, considering cereal yields from mainly rainfed agriculture for the provinces with higher productivity. The main target is to develop a strategy to model drought risk on agriculture for wheat yield at a province level. In order to achieve this goal a combined assessment was made using a drought indicator (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI) to evaluate drought conditions together with a widely used vegetation index (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, NDVI) to monitor vegetation activity. A correlation analysis between detrended wheat yield and SPEI was performed in order to assess the vegetation response to each time scale of drought occurrence and also identify the moment of the vegetative cycle when the crop yields are more vulnerable to drought conditions. The time scales and months of SPEI, together with the months of NDVI, better related with wheat yield were chosen to perform a multivariate regression analysis to simulate crop yield. Model results are satisfactory and highlighted the usefulness of such analysis in the framework of developing a drought risk model for crop yields. In terms of an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to an improved understanding of crop yield management under dry conditions, particularly adding substantial information on the advantages of combining

  6. A thermal model for photovoltaic panels under varying atmospheric conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Armstrong, S.; Hurley, W.G.

    2010-01-01

    The response of the photovoltaic (PV) panel temperature is dynamic with respect to the changes in the incoming solar radiation. During periods of rapidly changing conditions, a steady state model of the operating temperature cannot be justified because the response time of the PV panel temperature becomes significant due to its large thermal mass. Therefore, it is of interest to determine the thermal response time of the PV panel. Previous attempts to determine the thermal response time have used indoor measurements, controlling the wind flow over the surface of the panel with fans or conducting the experiments in darkness to avoid radiative heat loss effects. In real operating conditions, the effective PV panel temperature is subjected to randomly varying ambient temperature and fluctuating wind speeds and directions; parameters that are not replicated in controlled, indoor experiments. A new thermal model is proposed that incorporates atmospheric conditions; effects of PV panel material composition and mounting structure. Experimental results are presented which verify the thermal behaviour of a photovoltaic panel for low to strong winds.

  7. Wall conditioning for ITER: Current experimental and modeling activities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Douai, D., E-mail: david.douai@cea.fr [CEA, IRFM, Association Euratom-CEA, 13108 St. Paul lez Durance (France); Kogut, D. [CEA, IRFM, Association Euratom-CEA, 13108 St. Paul lez Durance (France); Wauters, T. [LPP-ERM/KMS, Association Belgian State, 1000 Brussels (Belgium); Brezinsek, S. [FZJ, Institut für Energie- und Klimaforschung Plasmaphysik, 52441 Jülich (Germany); Hagelaar, G.J.M. [Laboratoire Plasma et Conversion d’Energie, UMR5213, Toulouse (France); Hong, S.H. [National Fusion Research Institute, Daejeon 305-806 (Korea, Republic of); Lomas, P.J. [CCFE, Culham Science Centre, OX14 3DB Abingdon (United Kingdom); Lyssoivan, A. [LPP-ERM/KMS, Association Belgian State, 1000 Brussels (Belgium); Nunes, I. [Associação EURATOM-IST, Instituto de Plasmas e Fusão Nuclear, 1049-001 Lisboa (Portugal); Pitts, R.A. [ITER International Organization, F-13067 St. Paul lez Durance (France); Rohde, V. [Max-Planck-Institut für Plasmaphysik, 85748 Garching (Germany); Vries, P.C. de [ITER International Organization, F-13067 St. Paul lez Durance (France)

    2015-08-15

    Wall conditioning will be required in ITER to control fuel and impurity recycling, as well as tritium (T) inventory. Analysis of conditioning cycle on the JET, with its ITER-Like Wall is presented, evidencing reduced need for wall cleaning in ITER compared to JET–CFC. Using a novel 2D multi-fluid model, current density during Glow Discharge Conditioning (GDC) on the in-vessel plasma-facing components (PFC) of ITER is predicted to approach the simple expectation of total anode current divided by wall surface area. Baking of the divertor to 350 °C should desorb the majority of the co-deposited T. ITER foresees the use of low temperature plasma based techniques compatible with the permanent toroidal magnetic field, such as Ion (ICWC) or Electron Cyclotron Wall Conditioning (ECWC), for tritium removal between ITER plasma pulses. Extrapolation of JET ICWC results to ITER indicates removal comparable to estimated T-retention in nominal ITER D:T shots, whereas GDC may be unattractive for that purpose.

  8. New boundary conditions for 3D RF modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ko, K.; Nelson, E.; Fitze, H.

    1990-01-01

    The new capabilities are being implemented into the 3D particle-in-cell code, ARGUS, which will reduce substantially both problem size and computing time when modeling realistic geometries with high accuracies. In the time domain, a cylindrical radiative boundary condition will enable traveling wave propagation to be simulated in accelerator structures. An application of interest is the input coupler in the SLAC x-band high-gradient structure where local field gradients and impedance matching are important issues. In the frequency domain, a quasi-periodic boundary condition will facilitate the cold-test analysis of 3D periodic structures where many calculations are required to generate an ω β diagram. Present applications include the crossed-field amplifier cavity and the cluster klystron cavity

  9. Model of personal consumption under conditions of modern economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakhmatullina, D. K.; Akhmetshina, E. R.; Ignatjeva, O. A.

    2017-12-01

    In the conditions of the modern economy, in connection with the development of production, the expansion of the market for goods and services, its differentiation, active use of marketing tools in the sphere of sales, changes occur in the system of values and consumer needs. Motives that drive the consumer are transformed, stimulating it to activity. The article presents a model of personal consumption that takes into account modern trends in consumer behavior. The consumer, making a choice, seeks to maximize the overall utility from consumption, physiological and socio-psychological satisfaction, in accordance with his expectations, preferences and conditions of consumption. The system of his preferences is formed under the influence of factors of a different nature. It is also shown that the structure of consumer spending allows us to characterize and predict its further behavior in the market. Based on the proposed model and analysis of current trends in consumer behavior, conclusions and recommendations have been made that can be used by legislative and executive government bodies, business organizations, research centres and other structures to form a methodological and analytical tool for preparing a forecast model of consumption.

  10. Modelling and simulation of concrete leaching under outdoor exposure conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schiopu, Nicoleta; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia; Jayr, Emmanuel; Mehu, Jacques; Moszkowicz, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    Recently, a demand regarding the assessment of release of dangerous substances from construction products was raised by European Commission which has issued the Mandate M/366 addressed to CEN. This action is in relation with the Essential Requirement No. 3 'Hygiene, Health and Environment' of the Construction Products Directive (89/106/EC). The potential hazard for environment and health may arise in different life cycle stages of a construction product. During the service life stage, the release of substances due to contact with the rain water is the main potential hazard source, as a consequence of the leaching phenomenon. The objective of this paper is to present the development of a coupled chemical-transport model for the case of a concrete based construction product, i.e. concrete paving slabs, exposed to rain water under outdoor exposure conditions. The development of the model is based on an iterative process of comparing the experimental results with the simulated results up to an acceptable fit. The experiments were conducted at laboratory scale (equilibrium and dynamic leaching tests) and field scale. The product was exposed for one year in two types of leaching scenarios under outdoor conditions, 'runoff' and 'stagnation', and the element release was monitored. The model was calibrated using the experimental data obtained at laboratory scale and validated against measured field data, by taking into account the specific rain water balance and the atmospheric CO 2 uptake as input parameters. The numerical tool used in order to model and simulate the leaching behaviour was PHREEQC, coupled with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) thermodynamic data base. The simulation results are satisfying and the paper demonstrates the feasibility of the modelling approach for the leaching behaviour assessment of concrete type construction materials

  11. Do downscaled general circulation models reliably simulate historical climatic conditions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bock, Andrew R.; Hay, Lauren E.; McCabe, Gregory J.; Markstrom, Steven L.; Atkinson, R. Dwight

    2018-01-01

    The accuracy of statistically downscaled (SD) general circulation model (GCM) simulations of monthly surface climate for historical conditions (1950–2005) was assessed for the conterminous United States (CONUS). The SD monthly precipitation (PPT) and temperature (TAVE) from 95 GCMs from phases 3 and 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 and CMIP5) were used as inputs to a monthly water balance model (MWBM). Distributions of MWBM input (PPT and TAVE) and output [runoff (RUN)] variables derived from gridded station data (GSD) and historical SD climate were compared using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test For all three variables considered, the KS test results showed that variables simulated using CMIP5 generally are more reliable than those derived from CMIP3, likely due to improvements in PPT simulations. At most locations across the CONUS, the largest differences between GSD and SD PPT and RUN occurred in the lowest part of the distributions (i.e., low-flow RUN and low-magnitude PPT). Results indicate that for the majority of the CONUS, there are downscaled GCMs that can reliably simulate historical climatic conditions. But, in some geographic locations, none of the SD GCMs replicated historical conditions for two of the three variables (PPT and RUN) based on the KS test, with a significance level of 0.05. In these locations, improved GCM simulations of PPT are needed to more reliably estimate components of the hydrologic cycle. Simple metrics and statistical tests, such as those described here, can provide an initial set of criteria to help simplify GCM selection.

  12. Conditional Monte Carlo randomization tests for regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parhat, Parwen; Rosenberger, William F; Diao, Guoqing

    2014-08-15

    We discuss the computation of randomization tests for clinical trials of two treatments when the primary outcome is based on a regression model. We begin by revisiting the seminal paper of Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi (1988), and then describe a method based on Monte Carlo generation of randomization sequences. The tests based on this Monte Carlo procedure are design based, in that they incorporate the particular randomization procedure used. We discuss permuted block designs, complete randomization, and biased coin designs. We also use a new technique by Plamadeala and Rosenberger (2012) for simple computation of conditional randomization tests. Like Gail, Tan, and Piantadosi, we focus on residuals from generalized linear models and martingale residuals from survival models. Such techniques do not apply to longitudinal data analysis, and we introduce a method for computation of randomization tests based on the predicted rate of change from a generalized linear mixed model when outcomes are longitudinal. We show, by simulation, that these randomization tests preserve the size and power well under model misspecification. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Modeling of a bioethanol combustion engine under different operating conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hedfi, Hachem; Jedli, Hedi; Jbara, Abdessalem; Slimi, Khalifa

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Bioethanol/gasoline blends’ fuel effects on engine’s efficiency, CO and NOx emissions. • Fuel consumption and EGR optimizations with respect to estimated engine’s work. • Ignition timing and blends’ effects on engine’s efficiency. • Rich mixture, gasoline/bioethanol blends and EGR effects on engine’s efficiency. - Abstract: A physical model based on a thermodynamic analysis was designed to characterize the combustion reaction parameters. The time-variations of pressure and temperature required for the calculation of specific heat ratio are obtained from the solution of energy conservation equation. The chemical combustion of biofuel is modeled by an overall reaction in two-steps. The rich mixture and EGR were varied to obtain the optimum operating conditions for the engine. The NOx formation is modeled by using an eight-species six-step mechanism. The effect of various formation steps of NOx in combustion is considered via a phenomenological model of combustion speed. This simplified model, which has been validated by the most available published results, is used to characterize and control, in real time, the impact of biofuel on engine performances and NOx emissions as well. It has been demonstrated that a delay of the ignition timing leads to an increase of the gas mixture temperature and cylinder pressure. Furthermore, it has been found that the CO is lower near the stoichiometry. Nevertheless, we notice that lower rich mixture values result in small NOx emission rates

  14. Nonlinear modeling of magnetorheological energy absorbers under impact conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, Min; Hu, Wei; Choi, Young-Tai; Wereley, Norman M.; Browne, Alan L.; Ulicny, John; Johnson, Nancy

    2013-11-01

    Magnetorheological energy absorbers (MREAs) provide adaptive vibration and shock mitigation capabilities to accommodate varying payloads, vibration spectra, and shock pulses, as well as other environmental factors. A key performance metric is the dynamic range, which is defined as the ratio of the force at maximum field to the force in the absence of field. The off-state force is typically assumed to increase linearly with speed, but at the higher shaft speeds occurring in impact events, the off-state damping exhibits nonlinear velocity squared damping effects. To improve understanding of MREA behavior under high-speed impact conditions, this study focuses on nonlinear MREA models that can more accurately predict MREA dynamic behavior for nominal impact speeds of up to 6 m s-1. Three models were examined in this study. First, a nonlinear Bingham-plastic (BP) model incorporating Darcy friction and fluid inertia (Unsteady-BP) was formulated where the force is proportional to the velocity. Second, a Bingham-plastic model incorporating minor loss factors and fluid inertia (Unsteady-BPM) to better account for high-speed behavior was formulated. Third, a hydromechanical (HM) analysis was developed to account for fluid compressibility and inertia as well as minor loss factors. These models were validated using drop test data obtained using the drop tower facility at GM R&D Center for nominal drop speeds of up to 6 m s-1.

  15. Nonlinear modeling of magnetorheological energy absorbers under impact conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mao, Min; Hu, Wei; Choi, Young-Tai; Wereley, Norman M; Browne, Alan L; Ulicny, John; Johnson, Nancy

    2013-01-01

    Magnetorheological energy absorbers (MREAs) provide adaptive vibration and shock mitigation capabilities to accommodate varying payloads, vibration spectra, and shock pulses, as well as other environmental factors. A key performance metric is the dynamic range, which is defined as the ratio of the force at maximum field to the force in the absence of field. The off-state force is typically assumed to increase linearly with speed, but at the higher shaft speeds occurring in impact events, the off-state damping exhibits nonlinear velocity squared damping effects. To improve understanding of MREA behavior under high-speed impact conditions, this study focuses on nonlinear MREA models that can more accurately predict MREA dynamic behavior for nominal impact speeds of up to 6 m s −1 . Three models were examined in this study. First, a nonlinear Bingham-plastic (BP) model incorporating Darcy friction and fluid inertia (Unsteady-BP) was formulated where the force is proportional to the velocity. Second, a Bingham-plastic model incorporating minor loss factors and fluid inertia (Unsteady-BPM) to better account for high-speed behavior was formulated. Third, a hydromechanical (HM) analysis was developed to account for fluid compressibility and inertia as well as minor loss factors. These models were validated using drop test data obtained using the drop tower facility at GM R and D Center for nominal drop speeds of up to 6 m s −1 . (paper)

  16. Homologous Basal Ganglia Network Models in Physiological and Parkinsonian Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jyotika Bahuguna

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The classical model of basal ganglia has been refined in recent years with discoveries of subpopulations within a nucleus and previously unknown projections. One such discovery is the presence of subpopulations of arkypallidal and prototypical neurons in external globus pallidus, which was previously considered to be a primarily homogeneous nucleus. Developing a computational model of these multiple interconnected nuclei is challenging, because the strengths of the connections are largely unknown. We therefore use a genetic algorithm to search for the unknown connectivity parameters in a firing rate model. We apply a binary cost function derived from empirical firing rate and phase relationship data for the physiological and Parkinsonian conditions. Our approach generates ensembles of over 1,000 configurations, or homologies, for each condition, with broad distributions for many of the parameter values and overlap between the two conditions. However, the resulting effective weights of connections from or to prototypical and arkypallidal neurons are consistent with the experimental data. We investigate the significance of the weight variability by manipulating the parameters individually and cumulatively, and conclude that the correlation observed between the parameters is necessary for generating the dynamics of the two conditions. We then investigate the response of the networks to a transient cortical stimulus, and demonstrate that networks classified as physiological effectively suppress activity in the internal globus pallidus, and are not susceptible to oscillations, whereas parkinsonian networks show the opposite tendency. Thus, we conclude that the rates and phase relationships observed in the globus pallidus are predictive of experimentally observed higher level dynamical features of the physiological and parkinsonian basal ganglia, and that the multiplicity of solutions generated by our method may well be indicative of a natural

  17. ADAPTATION OF WOFOST MODEL FROM CGMS TO ROMANIAN CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    LAZĂR CĂTĂLIN

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available This preliminary study is an inventory of the main resources and difficulties in adaptation of the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS used by Agri4cast unit of IPSC from Joint Research Centre (JRC - Ispra of European Commission to conditions of Romania.In contrast with the original model calibrated mainly with statistical average yields at national level, for local calibration of the model the statistical yields at lower administrative units (macroregion or county must be used. In addition, for winter crops, the start of simulation in the new system will be in the autumn of the previous year. The start of simulation (and emergence day in the genuine system is 1st of January of the current year and the existing calibration was meant to provide a compensation system for this technical physiological delay.Proposed approach provides a better initialisation of the water balance (emergence occurs after start of simulation, as well as a better account for impact of wintering conditions, but obviously a new calibration for all cultivar dependent parameters is necessary. For the preoperational run, the localized model will use the weather data available till the last day available and the missing data from the rest of the year will be replaced either by the daily values of the long term averages or by the values from a year considered similar with the current one.Proposed adaptations permit a better use of information available on local scale and the localized model may be the core of a regional system for crop monitoring and in the same degree as the original system it can be used as tool for specific researches, such as studying the impact of climate changes.

  18. Exact simulation of conditioned Wright-Fisher models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lascoux, Martin; Waxman, David

    2014-12-21

    Forward and backward simulations play an increasing role in population genetics, in particular when inferring the relative importance of evolutionary forces. It is therefore important to develop fast and accurate simulation methods for general population genetics models. Here we present an exact simulation method that generates trajectories of an allele׳s frequency in a finite population, as described by a general Wright-Fisher model. The method generates conditioned trajectories that start from a known frequency at a known time, and which achieve a specific final frequency at a known final time. The simulation method applies irrespective of the smallness of the probability of the transition between the initial and final states, because it is not based on rejection of trajectories. We illustrate the method on several different populations where a Wright-Fisher model (or related) applies, namely (i) a locus with 2 alleles, that is subject to selection and mutation; (ii) a locus with 3 alleles, that is subject to selection; (iii) a locus in a metapopulation consisting of two subpopulations of finite size, that are subject to selection and migration. The simulation method allows the generation of conditioned trajectories that can be used for the purposes of visualisation, the estimation of summary statistics, and the development/testing of new inferential methods. The simulated trajectories provide a very simple approach to estimating quantities that cannot easily be expressed in terms of the transition matrix, and can be applied to finite Markov chains other than the Wright-Fisher model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. A computational model of conditioning inspired by Drosophila olfactory system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faghihi, Faramarz; Moustafa, Ahmed A; Heinrich, Ralf; Wörgötter, Florentin

    2017-03-01

    Recent studies have demonstrated that Drosophila melanogaster (briefly Drosophila) can successfully perform higher cognitive processes including second order olfactory conditioning. Understanding the neural mechanism of this behavior can help neuroscientists to unravel the principles of information processing in complex neural systems (e.g. the human brain) and to create efficient and robust robotic systems. In this work, we have developed a biologically-inspired spiking neural network which is able to execute both first and second order conditioning. Experimental studies demonstrated that volume signaling (e.g. by the gaseous transmitter nitric oxide) contributes to memory formation in vertebrates and invertebrates including insects. Based on the existing knowledge of odor encoding in Drosophila, the role of retrograde signaling in memory function, and the integration of synaptic and non-synaptic neural signaling, a neural system is implemented as Simulated fly. Simulated fly navigates in a two-dimensional environment in which it receives odors and electric shocks as sensory stimuli. The model suggests some experimental research on retrograde signaling to investigate neural mechanisms of conditioning in insects and other animals. Moreover, it illustrates a simple strategy to implement higher cognitive capabilities in machines including robots. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Religiousness and hazardous alcohol use: a conditional indirect effects model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankowski, Peter J; Hardy, Sam A; Zamboanga, Byron L; Ham, Lindsay S

    2013-08-01

    The current study examined a conditional indirect effects model of the association between religiousness and adolescents' hazardous alcohol use. In doing so, we responded to the need to include both mediators and moderators, and the need for theoretically informed models when examining religiousness and adolescents' alcohol use. The sample consisted of 383 adolescents, aged 15-18, who completed an online questionnaire. Results of structural equation modeling supported the proposed model. Religiousness was indirectly associated with hazardous alcohol use through both positive alcohol expectancy outcomes and negative alcohol expectancy valuations. Significant moderating effects for alcohol expectancy valuations on the association between alcohol expectancies and alcohol use were also found. The effects for alcohol expectancy valuations confirm valuations as a distinct construct to that of alcohol expectancy outcomes, and offer support for the protective role of internalized religiousness on adolescents' hazardous alcohol use as a function of expectancy valuations. Copyright © 2013 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Ageing model considering effects of maintenance and working conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martorell, S.; Sanchez, A.; Serradell, V.

    1998-01-01

    Nowadays, there is some doubt about building new Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Instead, there is a growing interest in analyzing the possibility to extend current NPP operation where life management programs play an important role. The evolution of the NPP safety depends on the evolution of the reliability of its safety components as a function of their age along the NPP operational life. In this paper, a new age-dependent reliability model is presented, which includes parameters related to surveillance and maintenance effectiveness and working conditions, both environmental and operational, of the equipment. This model may be used to support NPP life management and life extension programs by improving or optimizing surveillance and maintenance tasks using risk and cost models based on such an age-dependent reliability model. The results of the sensitivity study in the application show that the selection of the most appropriate maintenance strategy would directly depend on the previous parameters and very important differences are expected to appear under certain circumstance. (Author) 7 refs

  2. Variable Width Riparian Model Enhances Landscape and Watershed Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abood, S. A.; Spencer, L.

    2017-12-01

    Riparian areas are ecotones that represent about 1% of USFS administered landscape and contribute to numerous valuable ecosystem functions such as wildlife habitat, stream water quality and flows, bank stability and protection against erosion, and values related to diversity, aesthetics and recreation. Riparian zones capture the transitional area between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems with specific vegetation and soil characteristics which provide critical values/functions and are very responsive to changes in land management activities and uses. Two staff areas at the US Forest Service have coordinated on a two phase project to support the National Forests in their planning revision efforts and to address rangeland riparian business needs at the Forest Plan and Allotment Management Plan levels. The first part of the project will include a national fine scale (USGS HUC-12 digits watersheds) inventory of riparian areas on National Forest Service lands in western United States with riparian land cover, utilizing GIS capabilities and open source geospatial data. The second part of the project will include the application of riparian land cover change and assessment based on selected indicators to assess and monitor riparian areas on annual/5-year cycle basis.This approach recognizes the dynamic and transitional nature of riparian areas by accounting for hydrologic, geomorphic and vegetation data as inputs into the delineation process. The results suggest that incorporating functional variable width riparian mapping within watershed management planning can improve riparian protection and restoration. The application of Riparian Buffer Delineation Model (RBDM) approach can provide the agency Watershed Condition Framework (WCF) with observed riparian area condition on an annual basis and on multiple scales. The use of this model to map moderate to low gradient systems of sufficient width in conjunction with an understanding of the influence of distinctive landscape

  3. Response of Simple, Model Systems to Extreme Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ewing, Rodney C. [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States); Lang, Maik [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

    2015-07-30

    The focus of the research was on the application of high-pressure/high-temperature techniques, together with intense energetic ion beams, to the study of the behavior of simple oxide systems (e.g., SiO2, GeO2, CeO2, TiO2, HfO2, SnO2, ZnO and ZrO2) under extreme conditions. These simple stoichiometries provide unique model systems for the analysis of structural responses to pressure up to and above 1 Mbar, temperatures of up to several thousands of kelvin, and the extreme energy density generated by energetic heavy ions (tens of keV/atom). The investigations included systematic studies of radiation- and pressure-induced amorphization of high P-T polymorphs. By studying the response of simple stoichiometries that have multiple structural “outcomes”, we have established the basic knowledge required for the prediction of the response of more complex structures to extreme conditions. We especially focused on the amorphous state and characterized the different non-crystalline structure-types that result from the interplay of radiation and pressure. For such experiments, we made use of recent technological developments, such as the perforated diamond-anvil cell and in situ investigation using synchrotron x-ray sources. We have been particularly interested in using extreme pressures to alter the electronic structure of a solid prior to irradiation. We expected that the effects of modified band structure would be evident in the track structure and morphology, information which is much needed to describe theoretically the fundamental physics of track-formation. Finally, we investigated the behavior of different simple-oxide, composite nanomaterials (e.g., uncoated nanoparticles vs. core/shell systems) under coupled, extreme conditions. This provided insight into surface and boundary effects on phase stability under extreme conditions.

  4. A Multivariate Asymmetric Long Memory Conditional Volatility Model with X, Regularity and Asymptotics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Asai (Manabu); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe paper derives a Multivariate Asymmetric Long Memory conditional volatility model with Exogenous Variables (X), or the MALMX model, with dynamic conditional correlations, appropriate regularity conditions, and associated asymptotic theory. This enables checking of internal consistency

  5. 76 FR 41041 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G250 Airplane, Interaction of Systems...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-13

    ... Conditions No. 25-439-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G250 Airplane, Interaction... special conditions are issued for the Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G250 airplane. This airplane...

  6. Modelling climate change impacts on stream habitat conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boegh, Eva; Conallin, John; Karthikeyan, Matheswaran

    Impact from groundwater abstraction on freshwater resources and ecosystems is an issue of sincere concern in Denmark and many other countries worldwide. In addition, climate change projections add complexity to the existing conflict between water demands to satisfy human needs and water demands...... required to conserve streams as biologically diverse and healthy ecosystems. Solutions to this intensifying conflict require a holistic approach whereby stream biota is related to their physical environment at catchment scale, as also demanded by the EU Water Framework Directive. In the present study......, climate impacts on stream ecological conditions were quantified by combining a heat and mass stream flow with a habitat suitability modelling approach. Habitat suitability indices were developed for stream velocity, water depth, water temperature and substrate. Generally, water depth was found...

  7. Study of α-16O scattering by orthogonality condition models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breitschaft, A.M.; Canto, L.F.; Schechter, H.

    1983-01-01

    The use of approximate microscopic theories in α- 16 O scattering is investigated. The Orthogonality Condition Model (OCM) with both the direct potential of the Resonating Group Method (RMG) and with an effective local potential, V sub(eff), derived from Kernels of Generator Coordinate Method (GCM) is employed to study collisions at CM energies up to 30 MeV, for all relevant partial waves. Although the predictions of the OCM are consistent with 'exact' RGM results in both cases, the nuclear phase-shifts obtained with the effective potential are better. The presence of ambiguities in the derivation of V sub(eff) is noticed. The nature of such ambiguities is discussed. (Author) [pt

  8. Study of α-16O scattering by orthogonality condition models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Breitschaft, A.M.; Canto, L.F.; Schechter, H.

    1982-01-01

    The use of approximate microscopic theories in α- 16 O scattering is investigated. The Orthogonality Condition Model (OCM) with the direct potential of the Resonating Group Method (RGM) and with an effective local potential V sub(eff') derived from Kernels of the Generator Coordinate Method (GCM) is employed to study collisions at CM energies up to 30 MeV, for all relevant partial waves. Although the predictions of the OCM are consistent with 'exact' RGM results in both cases, the nuclear phase-shifts obtained with the effective potential are better. It is noticed the presence of ambiguities in the derivation of V sub(eff'). The nature of such ambiguities is discussed. (Author) [pt

  9. Predictive hydrogeochemical modelling of bauxite residue sand in field conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wissmeier, Laurin; Barry, David A; Phillips, Ian R

    2011-07-15

    The suitability of residue sand (the coarse fraction remaining from Bayer's process of bauxite refining) for constructing the surface cover of closed bauxite residue storage areas was investigated. Specifically, its properties as a medium for plant growth are of interest to ensure residue sand can support a sustainable ecosystem following site closure. The geochemical evolution of the residue sand under field conditions, its plant nutrient status and soil moisture retention were studied by integrated modelling of geochemical and hydrological processes. For the parameterization of mineral reactions, amounts and reaction kinetics of the mineral phases natron, calcite, tricalcium aluminate, sodalite, muscovite and analcime were derived from measured acid neutralization curves. The effective exchange capacity for ion adsorption was measured using three independent exchange methods. The geochemical model, which accounts for mineral reactions, cation exchange and activity corrected solution speciation, was formulated in the geochemical modelling framework PHREEQC, and partially validated in a saturated-flow column experiment. For the integration of variably saturated flow with multi-component solute transport in heterogeneous 2D domains, a coupling of PHREEQC with the multi-purpose finite-element solver COMSOL was established. The integrated hydrogeochemical model was applied to predict water availability and quality in a vertical flow lysimeter and a cover design for a storage facility using measured time series of rainfall and evaporation from southwest Western Australia. In both scenarios the sand was fertigated and gypsum-amended. Results show poor long-term retention of fertilizer ions and buffering of the pH around 10 for more than 5 y of leaching. It was concluded that fertigation, gypsum amendment and rainfall leaching alone were insufficient to render the geochemical conditions of residue sand suitable for optimal plant growth within the given timeframe. The

  10. Flow and air conditioning simulations of computer turbinectomized nose models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Mota, J; Solorio-Ordaz, F; Cervantes-de Gortari, J

    2018-04-16

    Air conditioning for the human respiratory system is the most important function of the nose. When obstruction occurs in the nasal airway, turbinectomy is used to correct such pathology. However, mucosal atrophy may occur sometime after this surgery when it is overdone. There is not enough information about long-term recovery of nasal air conditioning performance after partial or total surgery. The purpose of this research was to assess if, based on the flow and temperature/humidity characteristics of the air intake to the choana, partial resection of turbinates is better than total resection. A normal nasal cavity geometry was digitized from tomographic scans and a model was printed in 3D. Dynamic (sinusoidal) laboratory tests and computer simulations of airflow were conducted with full agreement between numerical and experimental results. Computational adaptations were subsequently performed to represent six turbinectomy variations and a swollen nasal cavity case. Streamlines along the nasal cavity and temperature and humidity distributions at the choana indicated that the middle turbinate partial resection is the best alternative. These findings may facilitate the diagnosis of nasal obstruction and can be useful both to plan a turbinectomy and to reduce postoperative discomfort. Graphical Abstract ᅟ.

  11. Modeling intelligent adversaries for terrorism risk assessment: some necessary conditions for adversary models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guikema, Seth

    2012-07-01

    Intelligent adversary modeling has become increasingly important for risk analysis, and a number of different approaches have been proposed for incorporating intelligent adversaries in risk analysis models. However, these approaches are based on a range of often-implicit assumptions about the desirable properties of intelligent adversary models. This "Perspective" paper aims to further risk analysis for situations involving intelligent adversaries by fostering a discussion of the desirable properties for these models. A set of four basic necessary conditions for intelligent adversary models is proposed and discussed. These are: (1) behavioral accuracy to the degree possible, (2) computational tractability to support decision making, (3) explicit consideration of uncertainty, and (4) ability to gain confidence in the model. It is hoped that these suggested necessary conditions foster discussion about the goals and assumptions underlying intelligent adversary modeling in risk analysis. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Cellular automata model for traffic flow with safe driving conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lárraga María Elena; Alvarez-Icaza Luis

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a recently introduced cellular automata (CA) model is used for a statistical analysis of the inner microscopic structure of synchronized traffic flow. The analysis focuses on the formation and dissolution of clusters or platoons of vehicles, as the mechanism that causes the presence of this synchronized traffic state with a high flow. This platoon formation is one of the most interesting phenomena observed in traffic flows and plays an important role both in manual and automated highway systems (AHS). Simulation results, obtained from a single-lane system under periodic boundary conditions indicate that in the density region where the synchronized state is observed, most vehicles travel together in platoons with approximately the same speed and small spatial distances. The examination of velocity variations and individual vehicle gaps shows that the flow corresponding to the synchronized state is stable, safe and highly correlated. Moreover, results indicate that the observed platoon formation in real traffic is reproduced in simulations by the relation between vehicle headway and velocity that is embedded in the dynamics definition of the CA model. (general)

  13. Downscaling ocean conditions: Experiments with a quasi-geostrophic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katavouta, A.; Thompson, K. R.

    2013-12-01

    The predictability of small-scale ocean variability, given the time history of the associated large-scales, is investigated using a quasi-geostrophic model of two wind-driven gyres separated by an unstable, mid-ocean jet. Motivated by the recent theoretical study of Henshaw et al. (2003), we propose a straightforward method for assimilating information on the large-scale in order to recover the small-scale details of the quasi-geostrophic circulation. The similarity of this method to the spectral nudging of limited area atmospheric models is discussed. Results from the spectral nudging of the quasi-geostrophic model, and an independent multivariate regression-based approach, show that important features of the ocean circulation, including the position of the meandering mid-ocean jet and the associated pinch-off eddies, can be recovered from the time history of a small number of large-scale modes. We next propose a hybrid approach for assimilating both the large-scales and additional observed time series from a limited number of locations that alone are too sparse to recover the small scales using traditional assimilation techniques. The hybrid approach improved significantly the recovery of the small-scales. The results highlight the importance of the coupling between length scales in downscaling applications, and the value of assimilating limited point observations after the large-scales have been set correctly. The application of the hybrid and spectral nudging to practical ocean forecasting, and projecting changes in ocean conditions on climate time scales, is discussed briefly.

  14. Modelling spent fuel and HLW behaviour in repository conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Esparza, A M; Esteban, J A

    2003-07-01

    The aim of this report is to give the reader an overall insight of the different models, which are used to predict the long-term behaviour of the spent fuels and HLW disposed in a repository. The models must be established on basic data and robust kinetics describing the mechanisms controlling spent fuel alteration/dissolution in a repository. The UO2 matrix, or source term, contains embedded in it the , majority of radionuclides of the spent fuel (some are in the gap cladding). For this reason the SF radionuclides release models play a significant role in the performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The differences existing between models published in the literature are due to the conceptual understanding of the processes and the degree of the conservatism used with the parameter values, and the boundary conditions. They mainly differ in their level of simplification and their final objective. Sometimes are focused the show compliance with regulatory requirements, other to support decision making, to increase the level of confidence of public and scientific community, could be empirical, semi-empirical or analytical. The models take into account the experimental results from radionuclides releases and their extrapolation to the very long term. Its necessary a great statistics for have a representative dissolution rate, due at the number of experimental results is not very high and many of them show a great scatter, independently of theirs different compositions by axial and radial variations, due to linear power or local burnup. On the other hand, it is difficult to predict the spent fuel behaviour over the long term, based in short term experiments. In this report is given a little description of the radionuclides distribution in the spent fuel and also in the cladding/pellet gap, grain boundary, cracks and rim zones (the matrix rim zone can be considered with an especial characteristics very different to the rest of the spent fuel), and structural

  15. Modelling spent fuel and HLW behaviour in repository conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esparza, A. M.; Esteban, J. A.

    2003-01-01

    The aim of this report is to give the reader an overall insight of the different models, which are used to predict the long-term behaviour of the spent fuels and HLW disposed in a repository. The models must be established on basic data and robust kinetics describing the mechanisms controlling spent fuel alteration/dissolution in a repository. The UO2 matrix, or source term, contains embedded in it the , majority of radionuclides of the spent fuel (some are in the gap cladding). For this reason the SF radionuclides release models play a significant role in the performance assessment of radioactive waste disposal. The differences existing between models published in the literature are due to the conceptual understanding of the processes and the degree of the conservatism used with the parameter values, and the boundary conditions. They mainly differ in their level of simplification and their final objective. Sometimes are focused the show compliance with regulatory requirements, other to support decision making, to increase the level of confidence of public and scientific community, could be empirical, semi-empirical or analytical. The models take into account the experimental results from radionuclides releases and their extrapolation to the very long term. Its necessary a great statistics for have a representative dissolution rate, due at the number of experimental results is not very high and many of them show a great scatter, independently of theirs different compositions by axial and radial variations, due to linear power or local burnup. On the other hand, it is difficult to predict the spent fuel behaviour over the long term, based in short term experiments. In this report is given a little description of the radionuclides distribution in the spent fuel and also in the cladding/pellet gap, grain boundary, cracks and rim zones (the matrix rim zone can be considered with an especial characteristics very different to the rest of the spent fuel), and structural

  16. The MDI Method as a Generalization of Logit, Probit and Hendry Analyses in Marketing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-04-01

    model involves nothing more than fitting a normal distribution function ( Hanushek and Jackson (1977)). For a given value of x, the probit model...preference shifts within the soft drink category. --For applications of probit models relevant for marketing, see Hausman and Wise (1978) and Hanushek and...Marketing Research" JMR XIV, Feb. (1977). Hanushek , E.A., and J.E. Jackson, Statistical Methods for Social Scientists. Academic Press, New York (1977

  17. Wage mobility in Europe. A comparative analysis using restricted multinomial logit regression

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pavlopoulos, D.; Muffels, R.; Vermunt, J.K.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate cross-country differences in wage mobility in Europe using the European Community Household Panel. The paper is particularly focused on examining the impact of economic conditions, welfare state regimes and employment regulation on wage mobility. We apply a log-linear

  18. Impact of socioeconomic status and medical conditions on health and healthcare utilization among aging Ghanaians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeed, Bashiru Ii; Xicang, Zhao; Yawson, Alfred Edwin; Nguah, Samuel Blay; Nsowah-Nuamah, Nicholas N N

    2015-03-20

    This study attempts to examine the impact of socioeconomic and medical conditions in health and healthcare utilization among older adults in Ghana. Five separate models with varying input variables were estimated for each response variable. Data (Wave 1 data) were drawn from the World Health Organization Global Ageing and Adult Health (SAGE) conducted during 2007-2008 and included a total of 4770 respondents aged 50+ and 803 aged 18-49 in Ghana. Ordered logits was estimated for self-rated health, and binary logits for functional limitation and healthcare utilization. Our results show that the study provides enough grounds for further research on the interplay between socioeconomic and medical conditions on one hand and the health of the aged on the other. Controlling for socioeconomic status substantially contributes significantly to utilization. Also, aged women experience worse health than men, as shown by functioning assessment, self-rated health, chronic conditions and functional limitations. Women have higher rates of healthcare utilization, as shown by significantly higher rates of hospitalization and outpatient encounters. Expansion of the national health insurance scheme to cover the entire older population--for those in both formal and informal employments--is likely to garner increased access and improved health states for the older population.

  19. Wake of a blunt planetary probe model under hypervelocity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kastell, D.; Hannemann, D.; Eitelberg, G. [DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Goettingen (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik

    1998-12-31

    The flow in the wake of a planetary probe under hypervelocity re-entry conditions has two idiosyncrasies not present in the conventional (cold) hypersonic flows: the strong dissociation reaction occurring behind the bow shock wave, and the freezing of the chemical reactions of the flow by the rapid expansion at the shoulder of the probe. The aim of the present study was to both understand the relative importance of the two phenomena upon the total heat and pressure loads on a planetary probe and its possible payload as well as to provide experimental validation data for those developing numerical codes for planetary probe design and analysis. For the experimental study an instrumented blunted 140 cone was tested in the High Enthalpy Shock Tunnel in Goettingen (HEG). The numerical calculations were performed with a Thin-Layer Navier-Stokes code which is capable of simulating chemical and thermal nonequilibrium flows. For the forebody loads the prediction methods were very reliable and capable of accounting for the kinetic effects caused by the high specific enthalpy of the flow. On the other side considerable discrepancies between experimental and numerical results for the wake of the model have been observed. (orig.)

  20. Wake of a blunt planetary probe model under hypervelocity conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kastell, D.; Hannemann, D.; Eitelberg, G. (DLR Deutsches Zentrum fuer Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V., Goettingen (Germany). Inst. fuer Stroemungsmechanik)

    1998-01-01

    The flow in the wake of a planetary probe under hypervelocity re-entry conditions has two idiosyncrasies not present in the conventional (cold) hypersonic flows: the strong dissociation reaction occurring behind the bow shock wave, and the freezing of the chemical reactions of the flow by the rapid expansion at the shoulder of the probe. The aim of the present study was to both understand the relative importance of the two phenomena upon the total heat and pressure loads on a planetary probe and its possible payload as well as to provide experimental validation data for those developing numerical codes for planetary probe design and analysis. For the experimental study an instrumented blunted 140 cone was tested in the High Enthalpy Shock Tunnel in Goettingen (HEG). The numerical calculations were performed with a Thin-Layer Navier-Stokes code which is capable of simulating chemical and thermal nonequilibrium flows. For the forebody loads the prediction methods were very reliable and capable of accounting for the kinetic effects caused by the high specific enthalpy of the flow. On the other side considerable discrepancies between experimental and numerical results for the wake of the model have been observed. (orig.)

  1. A Multinomial Logit Approach to Estimating Regional Inventories by Product Class

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence Teeter; Xiaoping Zhou

    1998-01-01

    Current timber inventory projections generally lack information on inventory by product classes. Most models available for inventory projection and linked to supply analyses are limited to projecting aggregate softwood and hardwood. The objective of this research is to develop a methodology to distribute the volume on each FIA survey plot to product classes and...

  2. 78 FR 31835 - Special Conditions: Embraer S.A., Model EMB-550 Airplane; Landing Pitchover Condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-28

    ... automatic braking system. This feature is a pilot-selectable function that allows earlier braking at landing... with an automatic braking system, which is a pilot-selectable function that allows earlier maximum... automatic braking system. The special conditions define the airplane configuration, speeds, and other...

  3. A simple condition monitoring model for a direct monitoring process

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Christer, A.H.; Wang, Wenbin

    1995-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of condition monitoring of a component which has available a measure of condition called wear. Wear accumulates over time and monitoring inspections are performed at chosen times to monitor and measure the cumulative wear. If past measurements of wear are available

  4. A metric for cross-sample comparisons using logit and probit

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Karlson, Kristian Bernt

    relative to an arbitrary scale, which makes the coefficients difficult both to interpret and to compare across groups or samples. Do differences in coefficients reflect true differences or differences in scales? This cross-sample comparison problem raises concerns for comparative research. However, we......* across groups or samples, making it suitable for situations met in real applications in comparative research. Our derivations also extend to the probit and to ordered and multinomial models. The new metric is implemented in the Stata command nlcorr....

  5. Computer Model to Estimate Reliability Engineering for Air Conditioning Systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afrah Al-Bossly, A.; El-Berry, A.; El-Berry, A.

    2012-01-01

    Reliability engineering is used to predict the performance and optimize design and maintenance of air conditioning systems. Air conditioning systems are expose to a number of failures. The failures of an air conditioner such as turn on, loss of air conditioner cooling capacity, reduced air conditioning output temperatures, loss of cool air supply and loss of air flow entirely can be due to a variety of problems with one or more components of an air conditioner or air conditioning system. Forecasting for system failure rates are very important for maintenance. This paper focused on the reliability of the air conditioning systems. Statistical distributions that were commonly applied in reliability settings: the standard (2 parameter) Weibull and Gamma distributions. After distributions parameters had been estimated, reliability estimations and predictions were used for evaluations. To evaluate good operating condition in a building, the reliability of the air conditioning system that supplies conditioned air to the several The company's departments. This air conditioning system is divided into two, namely the main chilled water system and the ten air handling systems that serves the ten departments. In a chilled-water system the air conditioner cools water down to 40-45 degree F (4-7 degree C). The chilled water is distributed throughout the building in a piping system and connected to air condition cooling units wherever needed. Data analysis has been done with support a computer aided reliability software, this is due to the Weibull and Gamma distributions indicated that the reliability for the systems equal to 86.012% and 77.7% respectively. A comparison between the two important families of distribution functions, namely, the Weibull and Gamma families was studied. It was found that Weibull method performed for decision making.

  6. Conditional Density Models Integrating Fuzzy and Probabilistic Representations of Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R.J. Almeida e Santos Nogueira (Rui Jorge)

    2014-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ Conditional density estimation is an important problem in a variety of areas such as system identification, machine learning, artificial intelligence, empirical economics, macroeconomic analysis, quantitative finance and risk management. This work considers the

  7. Modelling of the Contact Condition at the Tool/Matrix Interface in Friction Stir Welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Henrik Nikolaj Blich; Hattel, Jesper; Wert, John

    2003-01-01

    a known contact condition at the contact interface, e.g. either as pure sliding or sticking. The present model uses Coulomb’s law of friction for the sliding condition and the material yield shear stress for the sticking condition to model the contact forces. The model includes heat generation...

  8. Mathematical Modeling of Wastewater Oxidation under Microgravity Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Boyun Guo; Donald W. Holder; David S. Schechter

    2005-01-01

    Volatile removal assembly (VRA) is a module installed in the International Space Station for removing contaminants (volatile organics) in the wastewater produced by the crew. The VRA contains a slim pack bed reactor to perform catalyst oxidation of the wastewater at elevated pressure and temperature under microgravity conditions. Optimal design of the reactor requires a thorough understanding about how the reactor performs under microgravity conditions. The objective of this study was to theo...

  9. Validation of spectral gas radiation models under oxyfuel conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Becher, Johann Valentin

    2013-05-15

    Combustion of hydrocarbon fuels with pure oxygen results in a different flue gas composition than combustion with air. Standard computational-fluid-dynamics (CFD) spectral gas radiation models for air combustion are therefore out of their validity range in oxyfuel combustion. This thesis provides a common spectral basis for the validation of new spectral models. A literature review about fundamental gas radiation theory, spectral modeling and experimental methods provides the reader with a basic understanding of the topic. In the first results section, this thesis validates detailed spectral models with high resolution spectral measurements in a gas cell with the aim of recommending one model as the best benchmark model. In the second results section, spectral measurements from a turbulent natural gas flame - as an example for a technical combustion process - are compared to simulated spectra based on measured gas atmospheres. The third results section compares simplified spectral models to the benchmark model recommended in the first results section and gives a ranking of the proposed models based on their accuracy. A concluding section gives recommendations for the selection and further development of simplified spectral radiation models. Gas cell transmissivity spectra in the spectral range of 2.4 - 5.4 {mu}m of water vapor and carbon dioxide in the temperature range from 727 C to 1500 C and at different concentrations were compared in the first results section at a nominal resolution of 32 cm{sup -1} to line-by-line models from different databases, two statistical-narrow-band models and the exponential-wide-band model. The two statistical-narrow-band models EM2C and RADCAL showed good agreement with a maximal band transmissivity deviation of 3 %. The exponential-wide-band model showed a deviation of 6 %. The new line-by-line database HITEMP2010 had the lowest band transmissivity deviation of 2.2% and was therefore recommended as a reference model for the

  10. Predictive Models for Photovoltaic Electricity Production in Hot Weather Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jabar H. Yousif

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The process of finding a correct forecast equation for photovoltaic electricity production from renewable sources is an important matter, since knowing the factors affecting the increase in the proportion of renewable energy production and reducing the cost of the product has economic and scientific benefits. This paper proposes a mathematical model for forecasting energy production in photovoltaic (PV panels based on a self-organizing feature map (SOFM model. The proposed model is compared with other models, including the multi-layer perceptron (MLP and support vector machine (SVM models. Moreover, a mathematical model based on a polynomial function for fitting the desired output is proposed. Different practical measurement methods are used to validate the findings of the proposed neural and mathematical models such as mean square error (MSE, mean absolute error (MAE, correlation (R, and coefficient of determination (R2. The proposed SOFM model achieved a final MSE of 0.0007 in the training phase and 0.0005 in the cross-validation phase. In contrast, the SVM model resulted in a small MSE value equal to 0.0058, while the MLP model achieved a final MSE of 0.026 with a correlation coefficient of 0.9989, which indicates a strong relationship between input and output variables. The proposed SOFM model closely fits the desired results based on the R2 value, which is equal to 0.9555. Finally, the comparison results of MAE for the three models show that the SOFM model achieved a best result of 0.36156, whereas the SVM and MLP models yielded 4.53761 and 3.63927, respectively. A small MAE value indicates that the output of the SOFM model closely fits the actual results and predicts the desired output.

  11. Work Intensity of Households: Multinomial Logit Analysis and Correspondence Analysis for Slovak Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erik Šoltés

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Exclusion from the labour market is a serious social problem that is also addressed by the Europe 2020 strategy. While in the past the attention of statisticians and sociologists in the fight against poverty and social exclusion has concentrated mainly on income poverty and material deprivation, in recent times many studies and analyses are much more focused on work intensity as well. Households that use their work potential to less than 20%, have a very low work intensity, and members of such households are included into the population of people who are at risk of poverty or social exclusion. Moreover, the low use of labour potential of households significantly increases the risk of income poverty and the threat of material deprivation. This article provides an analysis of work intensity levels of Slovak households depending on the factors that are monitored by the EU-SILC 2015. The impact of relevant factors is quantified by correspondence analysis and by multinomial logistic regression model.

  12. Extremophiles survival to simulated space conditions: an astrobiology model study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastascusa, V; Romano, I; Di Donato, P; Poli, A; Della Corte, V; Rotundi, A; Bussoletti, E; Quarto, M; Pugliese, M; Nicolaus, B

    2014-09-01

    In this work we investigated the ability of four extremophilic bacteria from Archaea and Bacteria domains to resist to space environment by exposing them to extreme conditions of temperature, UV radiation, desiccation coupled to low pressure generated in a Mars' conditions simulator. All the investigated extremophilic strains (namely Sulfolobus solfataricus, Haloterrigena hispanica, Thermotoga neapolitana and Geobacillus thermantarcticus) showed a good resistance to the simulation of the temperature variation in the space; on the other hand irradiation with UV at 254 nm affected only slightly the growth of H. hispanica, G. thermantarcticus and S. solfataricus; finally exposition to Mars simulated condition showed that H. hispanica and G. thermantarcticus were resistant to desiccation and low pressure.

  13. Response of a DSNP pressurizer model under accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saphier, D.; Kallfelz, J.; Belblidia, L.

    1986-01-01

    Recently a new pressurizer model was developed for the DSNP simulation language. The model was connected to a simulation of the Trojan pressurized water reactor (PWR) and tested by simulating a loss-of-off-site power (LOSP) anticipated transient without scram. The results compare well to a similar study performed using the RELAP code. The pressurizer model and its response to the LOSP accident are presented

  14. An application of the Autoregressive Conditional Poisson (ACP) model

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Holloway, Jennifer P

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available When modelling count data that comes in the form of a time series, the static Poisson regression and standard time series models are often not appropriate. A current study therefore involves the evaluation of several observation-driven and parameter...

  15. Algebraic Bethe ansatz for 19-vertex models with reflection conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Utiel, Wagner

    2003-01-01

    In this work we solve the 19-vertex models with the use of algebraic Bethe ansatz for diagonal reflection matrices (Sklyanin K-matrices). The eigenvectors, eigenvalues and Bethe equations are given in a general form. Quantum spin chains of spin one derived from the 19-vertex models were also discussed

  16. Abnormal Waves Modelled as Second-order Conditional Waves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Juncher

    2005-01-01

    The paper presents results for the expected second order short-crested wave conditional of a given wave crest at a specific point in time and space. The analysis is based on the second order Sharma and Dean shallow water wave theory. Numerical results showing the importance of the spectral densit...

  17. Personnel shift assignment: Existence conditions and network models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Jeroen P.; van den Berg, J.P.; Panton, David M.

    1994-01-01

    The personnel scheduling problem is known to be a five-stage process in which the final stage involves the assignment of shifts to the days worked in the schedule. This paper discusses the existence conditions for both continuous and forward rotating shift assignments and heuristic network

  18. 76 FR 72087 - Special Conditions: Diamond Aircraft Industries, Model DA-40NG; Electronic Engine Control (EEC...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-22

    ...; Special Conditions No. 23-253-SC] Special Conditions: Diamond Aircraft Industries, Model DA-40NG..., Model DA-40NG airplane. This airplane will have a novel or unusual design feature(s) associated with an... include the new model DA- 40NG with the Austro Engine GmbH model E4 Aircraft Diesel Engine (ADE). The...

  19. Marginal Utility of Conditional Sensitivity Analyses for Dynamic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background/Question/MethodsDynamic ecological processes may be influenced by many factors. Simulation models thatmimic these processes often have complex implementations with many parameters. Sensitivityanalyses are subsequently used to identify critical parameters whose uncertai...

  20. Calibration of CORSIM models under saturated traffic flow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This study proposes a methodology to calibrate microscopic traffic flow simulation models. : The proposed methodology has the capability to calibrate simultaneously all the calibration : parameters as well as demand patterns for any network topology....

  1. A transient single particle model under FCI conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xiao-Yan; SHANG Zhi; XU Ji-Jun

    2005-01-01

    The paper is focused on the coupling effect between film boiling heat transfer and evaporation drag around a hot-particle in cold liquid. Based on the continuity, momentum and energy equations of the vapor film, a transient two-dimensional single particle model has been established. This paper contains a detailed description of HPMC (High-temperature Particle Moving in Coolant) model for studying some aspects of the premixing stage of fuel-coolant interactions (FCIs). The transient process of high-temperature particles moving in coolant can be simulated. Comparisons between the experiment results and the calculations using HPMC model demonstrate that HPMC model achieves a good agreement in predicting the time-varying characteristic of high-temperature spheres moving in coolant.

  2. Reflood modeling under oscillatory flow conditions with Cathare

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kelly, J M; Bartak, J; Janicot, A

    1994-12-31

    The problems and the current status in oscillatory reflood modelling with the CATHARE code are presented. The physical models used in CATHARE for reflood modelling predicted globally very well the forced reflood experiments. Significant drawbacks existed in predicting experiments with oscillatory flow (both forced and gravity driven). First, the more simple case of forced flow oscillations was analyzed. Modelling improvements within the reflooding package resolved the problem of quench front blockages and unphysical oscillations. Good agreements with experiment for the ERSEC forced oscillations reflood tests is now obtained. For gravity driven reflood, CATHARE predicted sustained flow oscillations during 100-150 s after the start of the reflood, whereas in the experiment flow oscillations were observed only during 25-30 s. Possible areas of modeling improvements are identified and several new correlations are suggested. The first test calculations of the BETHSY test 6.7A4 have shown that the oscillations are mostly sensitive to heat flux modeling downstream of the quench front. A much better agreement between CATHARE results and the experiment was obtained. However, further effort is necessary to obtain globally satisfactory predictions of gravity driven system reflood tests. (authors) 6 figs., 35 refs.

  3. Reflood modeling under oscillatory flow conditions with Cathare

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kelly, J.M.; Bartak, J.; Janicot, A.

    1993-01-01

    The problems and the current status in oscillatory reflood modelling with the CATHARE code are presented. The physical models used in CATHARE for reflood modelling predicted globally very well the forced reflood experiments. Significant drawbacks existed in predicting experiments with oscillatory flow (both forced and gravity driven). First, the more simple case of forced flow oscillations was analyzed. Modelling improvements within the reflooding package resolved the problem of quench front blockages and unphysical oscillations. Good agreements with experiment for the ERSEC forced oscillations reflood tests is now obtained. For gravity driven reflood, CATHARE predicted sustained flow oscillations during 100-150 s after the start of the reflood, whereas in the experiment flow oscillations were observed only during 25-30 s. Possible areas of modeling improvements are identified and several new correlations are suggested. The first test calculations of the BETHSY test 6.7A4 have shown that the oscillations are mostly sensitive to heat flux modeling downstream of the quench front. A much better agreement between CATHARE results and the experiment was obtained. However, further effort is necessary to obtain globally satisfactory predictions of gravity driven system reflood tests. (authors) 6 figs., 35 refs

  4. Three-party quantum teleportation using thermal states in Heisenberg XX model with open boundary condition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bhan, Jaemi; Kwon, Younghun

    2007-01-01

    Recently Yeo showed that thermal states in Heisenberg XX model with periodic boundary condition could be used for three-party quantum teleportation. However it is hard to implement the periodic boundary condition in spin chain. So instead of imposing the periodic boundary condition, we consider open boundary condition in Heisenberg XX model and investigate the possibility of using thermal states in Heisenberg XX model with open boundary condition. Using this way, we find the best fidelity conditions to three known protocols in three-party quantum teleportation. It turns out that the best fidelity in every protocol would be 23

  5. Mixing-model Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in Hydrodynamic Predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigelow, Josiah; Silva, Humberto; Truman, C. Randall; Vorobieff, Peter

    2017-11-01

    Amagat and Dalton mixing-models were studied to compare their thermodynamic prediction of shock states. Numerical simulations with the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH modeled University of New Mexico (UNM) shock tube laboratory experiments shocking a 1:1 molar mixture of helium (He) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) . Five input parameters were varied for sensitivity analysis: driver section pressure, driver section density, test section pressure, test section density, and mixture ratio (mole fraction). We show via incremental Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) analysis that significant differences exist between Amagat and Dalton mixing-model predictions. The differences observed in predicted shock speeds, temperatures, and pressures grow more pronounced with higher shock speeds. Supported by NNSA Grant DE-0002913.

  6. A robot conditioned reflex system modeled after the cerebellum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albus, J. S.

    1972-01-01

    Reduction of a theory of cerebellar function to computer software for the control of a mechanical manipulator. This reduction is achieved by considering the cerebellum, along with the higher-level brain centers which control it, as a type of finite-state machine with input entering the cerebellum via mossy fibers from the periphery and output from the cerebellum occurring via Purkinje cells. It is hypothesized that the cerebellum learns by an error-correction system similar to Perceptron training algorithms. An electromechanical model of the cerebellum is then developed for the control of a mechanical arm. The problem of modeling the granular layer which selects the set of parallel fibers which are active at any instant of time is considered, and a relevance matrix is constructed to model the relative degree of influence which mossy fibers from the various joints have on the sets of granule cells unique to each joint.

  7. Modeling of hydrologic conditions and solute movement in processed oil shale waste embankments under simulated climatic conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reeves, T.L.; Turner, J.P.; Hasfurther, V.R.; Skinner, Q.D.

    1992-06-01

    The scope of this program is to study interacting hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical factors affecting the behavior and disposal of combusted processed oil shale. The research combines bench-scale testing with large scale research sufficient to describe commercial scale embankment behavior. The large scale approach was accomplished by establishing five lysimeters, each 7.3 x 3.0 x 3.0 m deep, filled with processed oil shale that has been retorted and combusted by the Lurgi-Ruhrgas (Lurgi) process. Approximately 400 tons of Lurgi processed oil shale waste was provided by RBOSC to carry out this study. Research objectives were designed to evaluate hydrologic, geotechnical, and chemical properties and conditions which would affect the design and performance of large-scale embankments. The objectives of this research are: assess the unsaturated movement and redistribution of water and the development of potential saturated zones and drainage in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the unsaturated movement of solubles and major chemical constituents in disposed processed oil shale under natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the physical and constitutive properties of the processed oil shale and determine potential changes in these properties caused by disposal and weathering by natural and simulated climatic conditions; assess the use of previously developed computer model(s) to describe the infiltration, unsaturated movement, redistribution, and drainage of water in disposed processed oil shale; evaluate the stability of field scale processed oil shale solid waste embankments using computer models

  8. Modeling of Zircaloy cladding degradation under repository conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Santanam, L.; Raghavan, S.; Chin, B.A.

    1989-07-01

    Two potential degradation mechanisms, creep and stress corrosion cracking, of Zircaloy cladding during repository storage of spent nuclear fuel have been investigated. The deformation and fracture map methodology has been used to predict maximum allowable initial storage temperatures to achieve a thousand year life without rupture as a function of spent-fuel history. A stress analysis of fuel rods has been performed. Stresses in the outer zirconium oxide layer and the inner Zircaloy tube have been predicted for typical internal pressurization, oxide layer thickness, volume expansion from formation of the oxide layer and thermal expansion coefficients of the cladding and oxide. Stress relaxation occurring in-reactor has also been taken into account. The calculations indicate that for the anticipated storage conditions investigated, the outer zirconium oxide layer is in a state of compression thus making it unlikely that stress corrosion cracking of the exterior surface will occur. 20 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs

  9. 76 FR 71865 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Model GVI Airplane; Windshield Coating in...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-11-21

    ...; Special Conditions No. 25-452-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Model GVI Airplane... Aerospace Corporation Model GVI airplane. This airplane will have a novel or unusual design feature(s..., Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation (GAC) applied for an FAA type certificate for its new Model GVI passenger...

  10. Physical conditions for Jupiter-like dynamo models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Lúcia D. V.; Wicht, Johannes; Gastine, Thomas

    2018-01-01

    The Juno mission will measure Jupiter's magnetic field with unprecedented precision and provide a wealth of additional data that will allow us to constrain the planet's interior structure and dynamics. Here we analyse 66 different numerical simulations in order to explore the sensitivity of the dynamo-generated magnetic field to the planets interior properties. Jupiter field models based on pre-Juno data and up-to-date interior models based on ab initio simulations serve as benchmarks. Our results suggest that Jupiter-like magnetic fields can be found for a number of different models. These complement the steep density gradients in the outer part of the simulated shell with an electrical conductivity profile that mimics the low conductivity in the molecular hydrogen layer and thus renders the dynamo action in this region largely unimportant. We find that whether we assume an ideal gas or use the more realistic interior model based on ab initio simulations makes no difference. However, two other factors are important. A low Rayleigh number leads to a too strong axial dipole contribution while the axial dipole dominance is lost altogether when the convective driving is too strong. The required intermediate range that yields Jupiter-like magnetic fields depends on the other system properties. The second important factor is the convective magnetic Reynolds number radial profile Rmc(r), basically a product of the non-axisymmetric flow velocity and electrical conductivity. We find that the depth where Rmc exceeds about 50 is a good proxy for the top of the dynamo region. When the dynamo region sits too deep, the axial dipole is once more too dominant due to geometric reasons. Extrapolating our results to Jupiter and the result suggests that the Jovian dynamo extends to 95% of the planetary radius. The zonal flow system in our simulations is dominated by an equatorial jet which remains largely confined to the molecular layer. Where the jet reaches down to higher

  11. Logit Model of Computer-Based Data-Driven Creative Idea Generation in the Industry and Service Sectors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. N. Hojjati

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Organizational creativity and employee idea generation have become important and essential elements of an organization’s success, as creativity results to increased performance. The need of increased creativity is evident in industrial and service companies. The main idea behind this paper is to analyze and demonstrate if accessing various types of data in certain ways and/or situations affects creative idea generation by the people involved in different industrial/service sectors, considering that now most of the employees use digital data. The current paper discusses how seven different factors are related to digital data affect creativity.

  12. What drives active transportation choices among the aging population? Comparing a Bayesian belief network and mixed logit modeling approach

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kemperman, A.D.A.M.; Timmermans, H.J.P.

    2013-01-01

    As people age, they typically face declining levels of physical ability and mobility. However, walking and bicycling can remain relatively easy ways to be physically active for older adults provided that the built environment facilitates these activities. The aim of this study is to investigate

  13. A multinomial-logit ordered-probit model for jointly analyzing crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaplan, Sigal; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    ' propensity to engage in various corrective maneuvers in the case of the critical event of vehicle travelling. Five lateral and speed control maneuvers are considered: “braking”, “steering”, “braking & steering”, and “other maneuvers”, in addition to a “no action” option. The analyzed data are retrieved from...... the United States National Automotive Sampling System General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the years 2005-2009. Results show (i) the correlation between crash avoidance maneuvers and crash severity, and (ii) the link between drivers' attributes, risky driving behavior, road characteristics...

  14. Transient thermal modeling of permafrost conditions in Southern Norway

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Westermann

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Thermal modeling is a powerful tool to infer the temperature regime of the ground in permafrost areas. We present a transient permafrost model, CryoGrid 2, that calculates ground temperatures according to conductive heat transfer in the soil and in the snowpack. CryoGrid 2 is forced by operational air temperature and snow-depth products for potential permafrost areas in Southern Norway for the period 1958 to 2009 at 1 km2 spatial resolution. In total, an area of about 80 000 km2 is covered. The model results are validated against borehole temperatures, permafrost probability maps from "bottom temperature of snow" measurements and inventories of landforms indicative of permafrost occurrence. The validation demonstrates that CryoGrid 2 can reproduce the observed lower permafrost limit to within 100 m at all validation sites, while the agreement between simulated and measured borehole temperatures is within 1 K for most sites. The number of grid cells with simulated permafrost does not change significantly between the 1960s and 1990s. In the 2000s, a significant reduction of about 40% of the area with average 2 m ground temperatures below 0 °C is found, which mostly corresponds to degrading permafrost with still negative temperatures in deeper ground layers. The thermal conductivity of the snow is the largest source of uncertainty in CryoGrid 2, strongly affecting the simulated permafrost area. Finally, the prospects of employing CryoGrid 2 as an operational soil-temperature product for Norway are discussed.

  15. Modeling concrete under severe conditions as a multiphase material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dal Pont, S., E-mail: dalpont@lcpc.f [Division Betons et Composites Cimentaires, BCC-LCPC, 58 Bd.Lefebvre 75738 Paris cedex 15 (France); Meftah, F. [Laboratoire Mecanique et Materiaux du Genie Civil, Universite Cergy-Pontoise, 5 mail Gay Lussac, Neuville-sur-Oise, 95031 Cergy-Pontoise Cedex (France); Schrefler, B.A. [Dipartimento di Costruzioni e Trasporti, Universita di Padova, via Marzolo 9, 35131 Padova (Italy)

    2011-03-15

    The description as well as the prediction of the behavior of concrete under severe high temperature-pressure loading such as those typical of a loss-of-coolant accidental scenario considered for PWR containment buildings, matter in the study of such engineering applications and are also of interest in other fields such as safety evaluations during fire. The purpose of this paper is to present a flexible staggered finite element thermo-hygral model and then to use it as a numerical tool to determine the temperature and gas pressure fields that develop in concrete when heated.

  16. Outcomes analysis of hospital management model in restricted budget conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Virsavia Vaseva

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Facing conditions of market economy and financial crisis, the head of any healthcare facility has to take adequate decisions about the cost-effective functioning of the hospital. Along with cost reduction, the main problem is how to maintain a high level of health services. The aim of our study was to analyse the quality of healthcare services after the implementation of control over expenses due to a reduction in the budgetary resources in Military Medical Academy (MMA, Sofia, Bulgaria. Data from the hospital information system and the Financial Department about the incomes and expenditures for patient treatment were used. We conducted a retrospective study on the main components of clinical indicators in 2013 to reveal the main problems in the hospital management. In 2014, control was imposed on the use of the most expensive medicines and consumables. Comparative analysis was made of the results of the medical services in MMA for 2013 and 2014. Our results showed that despite the limited budget in MMA over the last year, the policy of control over operational costs succeeded in maintaining the quality of healthcare services. While reducing the expenses for medicines, consumables and laboratory investigations by ∼26%, some quality criteria for healthcare services were observed to be improved by ∼9%. Financial crisis and budget reduction urge healthcare economists to create adequate economical instruments to assist the normal functioning of hospital facilities. Our analysis showed that when a right policy is chosen, better results may be achieved with fewer resources.

  17. Data to support "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations & Biological Condition"

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Spreadsheets are included here to support the manuscript "Boosted Regression Tree Models to Explain Watershed Nutrient Concentrations and Biological Condition". This...

  18. An integrated model to simulate sown area changes for major crops at a global scale

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    SHIBASAKI; Ryosuke

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of land use systems have attracted much attention from scientists around the world due to their ecological and socio-economic implications. An integrated model to dynamically simulate future changes in sown areas of four major crops (rice, maize, wheat and soybean) on a global scale is pre- sented. To do so, a crop choice model was developed on the basis of Multinomial Logit (Logit) model to model land users’ decisions on crop choices among a set of available alternatives with using a crop utility function. A GIS-based Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model was adopted to simulate the crop yields under a given geophysical environment and farming management conditions, while the International Food Policy and Agricultural Simulation (IFPSIM) model was utilized to estimate crop price in the international market. The crop choice model was linked with the GIS-based EPIC model and the IFPSIM model through data exchange. This integrated model was then validated against the FAO statistical data in 2001-2003 and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) global land cover product in 2001. Both validation approaches indicated reliability of the model for ad- dressing the dynamics in agricultural land use and its capability for long-term scenario analysis. Finally, the model application was designed to run over a time period of 30 a, taking the year 2000 as baseline. The model outcomes can help understand and explain the causes, locations and consequences of land use changes, and provide support for land use planning and policy making.

  19. Copper content in cereals grown in the model condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ľuboš Harangozo

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The consumption of cereals in Slovakia but also worldwide is increasing by every year. From 30000 to 50000 tons of mercury circulates thought the biosphere that gets into the atmosphere degassing of the earth's crust and world oceans. Trace element as copper is one of the most efficient antioxidants in the body, often referred to as an element of beauty. It acts as a powerful catalyst for many enzymes and vitamins, through which already small amounts affects many activities in the body (strengthens immunity, reduces levels of histamine. It accumulates in the barley, beans, cucumber, nuts or milk and so on. The aim of our work was the evaluation of transfer of mercury from sludge to edible part of chosen cereals. The objectives were achieved in simulated conditions of growing pot experiment. We used agricultural soil from the location of Výčapy - Opatovce for the realization of the experiment. The sludge, which was added at various doses, was taken from Central Spiš area from locality of Rudňany near the village where minedironore that contains mainly cooper and mercury during last few decades was. We used three types of cereals: barley (Hordeum sativum L. variety PRESTIGE, spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L. variety ISJARISSA and oat (Avena sativa L. variety TATRAN. The length of growing season was 90 days. From the obtained results of two years can be concluded that the accumulation of cooper by seed follows barley ˂ oat ˂ wheat. Even though that the barley is characterized by the highest accumulation of cooper in the seeds, the content did not exceed the maximum level specified by The Codex Alimentarius of the Slovak Republic (CA SR. The results shows that the suitable cultivation of the cereals in localities, which are contaminated with heavy metals, especially by cooper, that the high content of cooper in soil do not pose a risk of accumulation of the metal into the cereal grain.

  20. Modeling air concentration over macro roughness conditions by Artificial Intelligence techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roshni, T.; Pagliara, S.

    2018-05-01

    Aeration is improved in rivers by the turbulence created in the flow over macro and intermediate roughness conditions. Macro and intermediate roughness flow conditions are generated by flows over block ramps or rock chutes. The measurements are taken in uniform flow region. Efficacy of soft computing methods in modeling hydraulic parameters are not common so far. In this study, modeling efficiencies of MPMR model and FFNN model are found for estimating the air concentration over block ramps under macro roughness conditions. The experimental data are used for training and testing phases. Potential capability of MPMR and FFNN model in estimating air concentration are proved through this study.

  1. Physical robustness of canopy temperature models for crop heat stress simulation across environments and production conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Webber, Heidi; White, Jeffrey W; Kimball, Bruce

    2018-01-01

    to simulate Tc. Model performance in predicting Tc was evaluated for two experiments in continental North America with various water, nitrogen and CO2 treatments. An empirical model fit to one dataset had the best performance, followed by the EBSC models. Stability conditions explained much of the differences...... between modeling approaches. More accurate simulation of heat stress will likely require use of energy balance approaches that consider atmospheric stability conditions....

  2. Measurement and Modeling of Cucumber Evapotranspiration Under Greenhouse Condition

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Moazenzadeh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In two last decades, greenhouse cultivation of different plants has developed among Iranian farmers, approximately 45 percent of national greenhouse cultures consisting of cucumber, tomato and pepper. As huge amounts of agricultural water in Iran are extracted from groundwater resources and a large number of Iranian plains are in critical conditions, and because irrigation is the major consumer of water (95 percent, it must be performed in a scientific manner. One approach to this is to obtain the knowledge of the consumptive use of major crops which is named evapotranspiration (ETc. Materials and Methods: This research was carried out in a north-south greenhouse belonging to Plant Protection Research Institute, located on northern Tehran, Iran, for estimating greenhouse cucumber evapotranspiration. Trickle irrigation method was used, and meteorological data such as temperature, humidity and solar radiation were measured daily. Physical and chemical measurements were conducted and electric conductivity (EC and pH values of 3.42 dsm-1 and 7.19, respectively, were recorded. Soil texture and bulk density were measured as to be sandy loam and 1.4 gr cm-3, respectively. In order to measure the actual evapotranspiration, cucumber seeds were also cultured in six similar microlysimeters and irrigation of each microlysimeter was based on FC moisture. If any drained water was available, it was measured. Finally, with measured meteorological characteristics in greenhouse which are suggested to have an effect on ET and were measurable, the best multiple linear regression and artificial neural network were established. The average data from three microlysimeters were used for calibration and that from three other microlysimeters were used for validation set. Results and Discussion: In the former case, when we used one multiple linear regression with measurable meteorological variables inside the greenhouse to predict cucumber ET for the entire

  3. 77 FR 32006 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-05-31

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-423-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... pertaining to a high incidence protection system that replaces the stall warning system during normal... the condition existing in the test or performance standard in which V SR is being used. (3) The weight...

  4. 76 FR 65105 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Model GIV-X Airplane; Isolation or Aircraft...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-20

    ...-1140; Special Conditions No. 25-450-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation, Model GIV-X Airplane; Isolation or Aircraft Electronic System Security Protection From Unauthorized Internal Access AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT. ACTION: Final special conditions; request for...

  5. 76 FR 39763 - Special Conditions: Boeing Model 787-8 Airplane; Interaction of Systems and Structures...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-07

    ... Conditions No. 25-354A-SC] Special Conditions: Boeing Model 787-8 Airplane; Interaction of Systems and..., electronic flight control system control surface awareness, HIRF protection, limit engine torque loads for... standards. A special condition is needed to require consideration of the effects of systems on the...

  6. Conditional Random Fields versus Hidden Markov Models for activity recognition in temporal sensor data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Kasteren, T.L.M.; Noulas, A.K.; Kröse, B.J.A.; Smit, G.J.M.; Epema, D.H.J.; Lew, M.S.

    2008-01-01

    Conditional Random Fields are a discriminative probabilistic model which recently gained popularity in applications that require modeling nonindependent observation sequences. In this work, we present the basic advantages of this model over generative models and argue about its suitability in the

  7. Computer Modeling of the Effects of Atmospheric Conditions on Sound Signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-02-01

    simulation. 11 5. References 1. Attenborough K. Sound propagation in the atmosphere. In: Rossing TD, editor. Springer handbook of...ARL-TR-7602 ● FEB 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Computer Modeling of the Effects of Atmospheric Conditions on Sound ...Laboratory Computer Modeling of the Effects of Atmospheric Conditions on Sound Signatures by Sarah Wagner Science and Engineering Apprentice

  8. 76 FR 25229 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G250 Airplane, Dynamic Test Requirements...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-04

    ... Memorandum ``Side-Facing Seats on Transport Category Airplanes'' and draft Issue Paper ``Dynamic Test...; Special Conditions No. 25-425-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G250 Airplane... are issued for the Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) model G250 airplane. This airplane will have a novel...

  9. Asymmetries in conditional mean variance: modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Brännäs, K.

    2004-01-01

    We propose a nonlinear time series model where both the conditional mean and the conditional variance are asymmetric functions of past information. The model is particularly useful for analysing financial time series where it has been noted that there is an asymmetric impact of good news and bad

  10. 76 FR 81360 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G280 Airplane, Operation Without Normal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-12-28

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 25 [Docket No. FAA-2011-1172: Special Conditions No. 25-453-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G280... Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G280 airplane. This airplane will have a novel or unusual design feature...

  11. Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia): Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

    OpenAIRE

    Luis Gabriel Márquez Díaz

    2013-01-01

    Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia). Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a p...

  12. —: A Multicategory Brand Equity Model and Its Application at Allstate

    OpenAIRE

    Venkatesh Shankar; Pablo Azar; Matthew Fuller

    2008-01-01

    We develop a robust model for estimating, tracking, and managing brand equity for multicategory brands based on customer survey and financial measures. This model has two components: (1) offering value (computed from discounted cash flow analysis) and (2) relative brand importance (computed from brand choice models such as multinomial logit, heteroscedastic extreme value, and mixed logit). We apply this model to estimate the brand equity of Allstate—a leading insurance company—and its leading...

  13. Modelling and Control of Ionic Electroactive Polymer Actuators under Varying Humidity Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Sunjai Nakshatharan

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this work, we address the problem of position control of ionic electroactive polymer soft actuators under varying relative humidity conditions. The impact of humidity on the actuation performance of ionic actuators is studied through frequency response and impedance spectroscopy analysis. Considering the uncertain performance of the actuator under varying humidity conditions, an adaptable model using the neural network method is developed. The model uses relative humidity magnitude as one of the model parameters, making it robust to different environmental conditions. Utilizing the model, a closed-loop controller based on the model predictive controller is developed for position control of the actuator. The developed model and controller are experimentally verified and found to be capable of predicting and controlling the actuators with excellent tracking accuracy under relative humidity conditions varying in the range of 10–90%.

  14. Lumped-parameter modeling of PWR downcomer and pressurizer for LOCA conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohatgi, U.S.; Saha, P.; Dubow, A.A.

    1978-01-01

    Two lumped-parameter models, one for a PWR downcomer and the other for a pressurizer, are presented. The models are based on the transient, nonhomogeneous, drift-flux description of two-phase flow, and are suitable for simulating a hypothetical LOCA condition. Effects of thermal nonequilibrium are incorporated in the downcomer model, whereas the pressurizer model can track the interfaces among various flow regimes. Semiimplicit numerical schemes are used for solution. Encouraging results have been obtained for both the models. (author)

  15. "Logits and Tigers and Bears, Oh My! A Brief Look at the Simple Math of Logistic Regression and How It Can Improve Dissemination of Results"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jason W. Osborne

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Logistic regression is slowly gaining acceptance in the social sciences, and fills an important niche in the researcher's toolkit: being able to predict important outcomes that are not continuous in nature. While OLS regression is a valuable tool, it cannot routinely be used to predict outcomes that are binary or categorical in nature. These outcomes represent important social science lines of research: retention in, or dropout from school, using illicit drugs, underage alcohol consumption, antisocial behavior, purchasing decisions, voting patterns, risky behavior, and so on. The goal of this paper is to briefly lead the reader through the surprisingly simple mathematics that underpins logistic regression: probabilities, odds, odds ratios, and logits. Anyone with spreadsheet software or a scientific calculator can follow along, and in turn, this knowledge can be used to make much more interesting, clear, and accurate presentations of results (especially to non-technical audiences. In particular, I will share an example of an interaction in logistic regression, how it was originally graphed, and how the graph was made substantially more user-friendly by converting the original metric (logits to a more readily interpretable metric (probability through three simple steps.

  16. Illusory inferences from a disjunction of conditionals: a new mental models account.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrouillet, P; Lecas, J F

    2000-08-14

    (Johnson-Laird, P.N., & Savary, F. (1999, Illusory inferences: a novel class of erroneous deductions. Cognition, 71, 191-229.) have recently presented a mental models account, based on the so-called principle of truth, for the occurrence of inferences that are compelling but invalid. This article presents an alternative account of the illusory inferences resulting from a disjunction of conditionals. In accordance with our modified theory of mental models of the conditional, we show that the way individuals represent conditionals leads them to misinterpret the locus of the disjunction and prevents them from drawing conclusions from a false conditional, thus accounting for the compelling character of the illusory inference.

  17. On the identification of fractionally cointegrated VAR models with the F(d) condition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlini, Federico; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    for any choice of the lag length, also when the true cointegration rank is known. The properties of these multiple non-identified models are studied and a necessary and sufficient condition for the identification of the fractional parameters of the system is provided. The condition is named F(d......) and it is a generalization to the fractional case of the I(1) condition in the VECM model. The assessment of the F(d) condition in the empirical analysis is relevant for the determination of the fractional parameters as well as the number of lags. The paper also illustrates the indeterminacy between the cointegration rank...

  18. On the identification of fractionally cointegrated VAR models with the F(d) condition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santucci de Magistris, Paolo; Carlini, Federico

    for any choice of the lag-length when the true cointegration rank is known. The properties of these multiple non-identified models are studied and a necessary and sufficient condition for the identification of the fractional parameters of the system is provided. The condition is named F(d......). This is a generalization of the well-known I(1) condition to the fractional case. Imposing a proper restriction on the fractional integration parameter, d, is sufficient to guarantee identification of all model parameters and the validity of the F(d) condition. The paper also illustrates the indeterminacy between...

  19. Why trace and delay conditioning are sometimes (but not always) hippocampal dependent: A computational model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Wufong, Ella; Servatius, Richard J.; Pang, Kevin C. H.; Gluck, Mark A.; Myers, Catherine E.

    2013-01-01

    A recurrent-network model provides a unified account of the hippocampal region in mediating the representation of temporal information in classical eyeblink conditioning. Much empirical research is consistent with a general conclusion that delay conditioning (in which the conditioned stimulus CS and unconditioned stimulus US overlap and co-terminate) is independent of the hippocampal system, while trace conditioning (in which the CS terminates before US onset) depends on the hippocampus. However, recent studies show that, under some circumstances, delay conditioning can be hippocampal-dependent and trace conditioning can be spared following hippocampal lesion. Here, we present an extension of our prior trial-level models of hippocampal function and stimulus representation that can explain these findings within a unified framework. Specifically, the current model includes adaptive recurrent collateral connections that aid in the representation of intra-trial temporal information. With this model, as in our prior models, we argue that the hippocampus is not specialized for conditioned response timing, but rather is a general-purpose system that learns to predict the next state of all stimuli given the current state of variables encoded by activity in recurrent collaterals. As such, the model correctly predicts that hippocampal involvement in classical conditioning should be critical not only when there is an intervening trace interval, but also when there is a long delay between CS onset and US onset. Our model simulates empirical data from many variants of classical conditioning, including delay and trace paradigms in which the length of the CS, the inter-stimulus interval, or the trace interval is varied. Finally, we discuss model limitations, future directions, and several novel empirical predictions of this temporal processing model of hippocampal function and learning. PMID:23178699

  20. Modelling and measurement of wear particle flow in a dual oil filter system for condition monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henneberg, Morten; Eriksen, René Lynge; Fich, Jens

    2016-01-01

    . The quantity of wear particles in gear oil is analysed with respect to system running conditions. It is shown that the model fits the data in terms of startup “particle burst” phenomenon, quasi-stationary conditions during operation, and clean-up filtration when placed out of operation. In order to establish...... boundary condition for particle burst phenomenon, the release of wear particles from a pleated mesh filter is measured in a test rig and included in the model. The findings show that a dual filter model, with startup phenomenon included, can describe trends in the wear particle flow observed in the gear...... particle generation is made possible by model parameter estimation and identification of an unintended lack of filter change. The model may also be used to optimise system and filtration performance, and to enable continuous condition monitoring....

  1. Water loss in table grapes: model development and validation under dynamic storage conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ericsem PEREIRA

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Water loss is a critical problem affecting the quality of table grapes. Temperature and relative humidity (RH are essential in this process. Although mathematical modelling can be applied to measure constant temperature and RH impacts, it is proved that variations in storage conditions are normally encountered in the cold chain. This study proposed a methodology to develop a weight loss model for table grapes and validate its predictions in non-constant conditions of a domestic refrigerator. Grapes were maintained under controlled conditions and the weight loss was measured to calibrate the model. The model described the water loss process adequately and the validation tests confirmed its predictive ability. Delayed cooling tests showed that estimated transpiration rates in subsequent continuous temperature treatment was not significantly influenced by prior exposure conditions, suggesting that this model may be useful to estimate the weight loss consequences of interruptions in the cold chain.

  2. Response moderation models for conditional dependence between response time and response accuracy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolsinova, Maria; Tijmstra, Jesper; Molenaar, Dylan

    2017-05-01

    It is becoming more feasible and common to register response times in the application of psychometric tests. Researchers thus have the opportunity to jointly model response accuracy and response time, which provides users with more relevant information. The most common choice is to use the hierarchical model (van der Linden, 2007, Psychometrika, 72, 287), which assumes conditional independence between response time and accuracy, given a person's speed and ability. However, this assumption may be violated in practice if, for example, persons vary their speed or differ in their response strategies, leading to conditional dependence between response time and accuracy and confounding measurement. We propose six nested hierarchical models for response time and accuracy that allow for conditional dependence, and discuss their relationship to existing models. Unlike existing approaches, the proposed hierarchical models allow for various forms of conditional dependence in the model and allow the effect of continuous residual response time on response accuracy to be item-specific, person-specific, or both. Estimation procedures for the models are proposed, as well as two information criteria that can be used for model selection. Parameter recovery and usefulness of the information criteria are investigated using simulation, indicating that the procedure works well and is likely to select the appropriate model. Two empirical applications are discussed to illustrate the different types of conditional dependence that may occur in practice and how these can be captured using the proposed hierarchical models. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

  3. Estuarine Facies Model Revisited: Conceptual Model of Estuarine Sediment Dynamics During Non-Equilibrium Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elliott, E. A.; Rodriguez, A. B.; McKee, B. A.

    2017-12-01

    Traditional models of estuarine systems show deposition occurs primarily within the central basin. There, accommodation space is high within the deep central valley, which is below regional wave base and where current energy is presumed to reach a relative minimum, promoting direct deposition of cohesive sediment and minimizing erosion. However, these models often reflect long-term (decadal-millennial) timescales, where accumulation rates are in relative equilibrium with the rate of relative sea-level rise, and lack the resolution to capture shorter term changes in sediment deposition and erosion within the central estuary. This work presents a conceptual model for estuarine sedimentation during non-equilibrium conditions, where high-energy inputs to the system reach a relative maximum in the central basin, resulting in temporary deposition and/or remobilization over sub-annual to annual timescales. As an example, we present a case study of Core Sound, NC, a lagoonal estuarine system where the regional base-level has been reached, and sediment deposition, resuspension and bypassing is largely a result of non-equilibrium, high-energy events. Utilizing a 465 cm-long sediment core from a mini-basin located between Core Sound and the continental shelf, a 40-year sub-annual chronology was developed for the system, with sediment accumulation rates (SAR) interpolated to a monthly basis over the 40-year record. This study links erosional processes in the estuary directly with sediment flux to the continental shelf, taking advantage of the highly efficient sediment trapping capability of the mini-basin. The SAR record indicates high variation in the estuarine sediment supply, with peaks in the SAR record at a recurrence interval of 1 year (+/- 0.25). This record has been compared to historical storm influence for the area. Through this multi-decadal record, sediment flushing events occur at a much more frequent interval than previously thought (i.e. annual rather than

  4. Modeling and Forecasting the Onset and Duration of Severe Radiation Fog under Frost Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Velde, I. R.; Steeneveld, G. J.; Schreur, B. G. J. Wichers; Holtslag, A. A. M.

    2010-01-01

    A case of a severe radiation fog during frost conditions is analyzed as a benchmark for the development of a very high-resolution NWP model Results by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the High Resolution Limited Area Model (H I RLAM) are evaluated against detailed observations to

  5. Modeling and Forecasting the Onset and Duration of Severe Radiation Fog under Frost Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velde, van der I.R.; Steeneveld, G.J.; Wichers Schreur, B.G.J.; Holtslag, A.A.M.

    2010-01-01

    A case of a severe radiation fog during frost conditions is analyzed as a benchmark for the development of a very high resolution NWP model. Results by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) and the High resolution limited area model (HIRLAM) are evaluated against detailed observations to

  6. Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Engström, Kerstin; Olin, Stefan; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Brogaard, Sara; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Alexander, Peter; Murray-Rust, Dave; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    We present a modelling framework to simulate probabilistic futures of global cropland areas that are conditional on the SSP (shared socio-economic pathway) scenarios. Simulations are based on the Parsimonious Land Use Model (PLUM) linked with the global dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS

  7. Simple model for daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boesten, J.J.T.I.; Stroosnijder, L.

    1986-01-01

    A simple parametric model is presented to estimate daily evaporation from fallow tilled soil under spring conditions in a temperate climate. In this model, cumulative actual evaporation during a drying cycle is directly proportional to the square root of cumulative potential evaporation. The model

  8. Coordinated HArd Sphere Model (CHASM): A Simplified Model for Silicate and Oxide Liquids at Mantle Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolf, A. S.; Asimow, P. D.; Stevenson, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    Recent first-principles theoretical calculations (Stixrude 2009) and experimental shock-wave investigations (Mosenfelder 2009) indicate that melting perovskite requires significantly less energy than previously thought, supporting the idea of a deep-mantle magma ocean early in Earth's history. The modern-day solid Earth is thus likely the result of crystallization from an early predominantly molten state, a process that is primarily controlled by the poorly understood behavior of silicate melts at extreme pressures and temperatures. Probing liquid thermodynamics at mantle conditions is difficult for both theory and experiment, and further challenges are posed by the large relevant compositional space including at least MgO, SiO2, and FeO. First-principles molecular dynamics has been used with great success to determine the high P-T properties of a small set of fixed composition silicate-oxide liquids including MgO (Karki 2006), SiO2 (Karki 2007), Mg2SiO4 (de Koker 2008), MgSiO3 (Stixrude 2005), and Fe2SiO4 (Ramo 2012). While extremely powerful, this approach has limitations including high computational cost, lower bounds on temperature due to relaxation constraints, as well as restrictions to length scales and time scales that are many orders of magnitude smaller than those relevant to the Earth or experimental methods. As a compliment to accurate first-principles calculations, we have developed the Coordinated HArd Sphere Model (CHASM). We extend the standard hard sphere mixture model, recently applied to silicate liquids by Jing (2011), by accounting for the range of oxygen coordination states available to liquid cations. Utilizing approximate analytic expressions for the hard sphere model, the method can predict complex liquid structure and thermodynamics while remaining computationally efficient. Requiring only minutes on standard desktop computers rather than months on supercomputers, the CHASM approach is well-suited to providing an approximate thermodynamic

  9. Nested Bethe Ansatz for Spin Ladder Model with Open Boundary Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Junfang; Zhang Chunmin; Yue Ruihong; Li Runling

    2005-01-01

    The nested Bethe ansatz (BA) method is applied to find the eigenvalues and the eigenvectors of the transfer matrix for spin-ladder model with open boundary conditions. Based on the reflection equation, we find the general diagonal solution, which determines the general boundary interaction in the Hamiltonian. We introduce the spin-ladder model with open boundary conditions. By finding the solution K ± of the reflection equation which determines the nontrivial boundary terms in the Hamiltonian, we diagonalize the transfer matrix of the spin-ladder model with open boundary conditions in the framework of nested BA.

  10. Creation of integrated information model of 'Ukryttia' object premises condition to support the works

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Postil, S.D.; Ermolenko, A.I.; Ivanov, V.V.; Kotlyarov, V.T.

    2002-01-01

    A technology for creation of integrated information model of 'Ukryttia' Object premises conditions was developed on the basis of geoinformation system AutoCad. DB Access and instrumental utility 3D MAX. Information models and database for conditions of 'Ukryttia' object's premises located between 0.000 and 67.000 marks in axes 41-52, row G-T, were created. Using integrated information model of 'Ukryttia' object premises conditions, 3D surface distribution of radiation field in the object premises on level 0.000 has been received. It is revealed that maximum values of radiation field are concentrated over the clusters of fuel-containing materials

  11. A simulation Model of the Reactor Hall Ventilation and air Conditioning Systems of ETRR-2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abd El-Rahman, M.F.

    2004-01-01

    Although the conceptual design for any system differs from one designer to another. each of them aims to achieve the function of the system required. the ventilation and air conditioning system of reactors hall is one of those systems that really differs but always dose its function for which it is designed. thus, ventilation and air conditioning in some reactor hall constitute only one system whereas in some other ones, they are separate systems. the Egypt Research Reactor-2 (ETRR-2)represents the second type. most studies conducted on ventilation and air conditioning simulation models either in traditional building or for research rectors show that those models were not designed similarly to the model of the hall of ETRR-2 in which ventilation and air conditioning constitute two separate systems.besides, those studies experimented on ventilation and air conditioning simulation models of reactor building predict the temperature and humidity inside these buildings at certain outside condition and it is difficult to predict when the outside conditions are changed . also those studies do not discuss the influences of reactor power changes. therefore, the present work deals with a computational study backed by infield experimental measurements of the performance of the ventilation and air conditioning systems of reactor hall during normal operation at different outside conditions as well as at different levels of reactor power

  12. Kinetic modeling of growth and lipid body induction in Chlorella pyrenoidosa under heterotrophic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sachdeva, Neha; Kumar, G Dinesh; Gupta, Ravi Prakash; Mathur, Anshu Shankar; Manikandan, B; Basu, Biswajit; Tuli, Deepak Kumar

    2016-10-01

    The aim of the present work was to develop a mathematical model to describe the biomass and (total) lipid productivity of Chlorella pyrenoidosa NCIM 2738 under heterotrophic conditions. Biomass growth rate was predicted by Droop's cell quota model, while changes observed in cell quota (utilization) under carbon excess conditions were used for the modeling and predicting the lipid accumulation rate. The model was simulated under non-limiting (excess) carbon and limiting nitrate concentration and validated with experimental data for the culture grown in batch (flask) mode under different nitrate concentrations. The present model incorporated two modes (growth and stressed) for the prediction of endogenous lipid synthesis/induction and aimed to predict the effect and response of the microalgae under nutrient starvation (stressed) conditions. MATLAB and Genetic Algorithm were employed for the prediction and validation of the model parameters. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. A Modelling Framework to Assess the Effect of Pressures on River Abiotic Habitat Conditions and Biota.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jochem Kail

    Full Text Available River biota are affected by global reach-scale pressures, but most approaches for predicting biota of rivers focus on river reach or segment scale processes and habitats. Moreover, these approaches do not consider long-term morphological changes that affect habitat conditions. In this study, a modelling framework was further developed and tested to assess the effect of pressures at different spatial scales on reach-scale habitat conditions and biota. Ecohydrological and 1D hydrodynamic models were used to predict discharge and water quality at the catchment scale and the resulting water level at the downstream end of a study reach. Long-term reach morphology was modelled using empirical regime equations, meander migration and 2D morphodynamic models. The respective flow and substrate conditions in the study reach were predicted using a 2D hydrodynamic model, and the suitability of these habitats was assessed with novel habitat models. In addition, dispersal models for fish and macroinvertebrates were developed to assess the re-colonization potential and to finally compare habitat suitability and the availability/ability of species to colonize these habitats. Applicability was tested and model performance was assessed by comparing observed and predicted conditions in the lowland Treene River in northern Germany. Technically, it was possible to link the different models, but future applications would benefit from the development of open source software for all modelling steps to enable fully automated model runs. Future research needs concern the physical modelling of long-term morphodynamics, feedback of biota (e.g., macrophytes on abiotic habitat conditions, species interactions, and empirical data on the hydraulic habitat suitability and dispersal abilities of macroinvertebrates. The modelling framework is flexible and allows for including additional models and investigating different research and management questions, e.g., in climate impact

  14. Exponential model normalization for electrical capacitance tomography with external electrodes under gap permittivity conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baidillah, Marlin R; Takei, Masahiro

    2017-01-01

    A nonlinear normalization model which is called exponential model for electrical capacitance tomography (ECT) with external electrodes under gap permittivity conditions has been developed. The exponential model normalization is proposed based on the inherently nonlinear relationship characteristic between the mixture permittivity and the measured capacitance due to the gap permittivity of inner wall. The parameters of exponential equation are derived by using an exponential fitting curve based on the simulation and a scaling function is added to adjust the experiment system condition. The exponential model normalization was applied to two dimensional low and high contrast dielectric distribution phantoms by using simulation and experimental studies. The proposed normalization model has been compared with other normalization models i.e. Parallel, Series, Maxwell and Böttcher models. Based on the comparison of image reconstruction results, the exponential model is reliable to predict the nonlinear normalization of measured capacitance in term of low and high contrast dielectric distribution. (paper)

  15. 78 FR 41684 - Special Conditions: Embraer S.A. Model EMB-550 Airplanes, Sudden Engine Stoppage

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-07-11

    ...-tail empennage. The primary structure is metal with composite empennage and control surfaces. The Model..., Transport Airplane Directorate, Aircraft Certification Service, 1601 Lind Avenue SW., Renton, Washington... more-critical airframe supporting structure. Applicability As discussed above, these special conditions...

  16. Diffusion modeling of fission product release during depressurized core conduction cooldown conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, R.C.

    1991-01-01

    A simple model for diffusion through the silicon carbide layer of TRISO particles is applied to the data for accident condition testing of fuel spheres for the High-Temperature Reactor program of the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG). Categorization of sphere release of 137 Cs based on fast neutron fluence permits predictions of release with an accuracy comparable to that of the US/FRG accident condition fuel performance model. Calculations are also performed for 85 Kr, 90 Sr, and 110m Ag. Diffusion of cesium through SiC suggests that models of fuel failure should consider fuel performance during repeated accident condition thermal cycling. Microstructural considerations in models of fission product release are discussed. The neutron-induced segregation of silicon within the SiC structure is postulated as a mechanism for enhanced fission product release during accident conditions. As oxygen-enhanced SiC decomposition mechanism is also discussed. (author). 12 refs, 11 figs, 2 tabs

  17. Identifying the Goal, User model and Conditions of Recommender Systems for Formal and Informal Learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Drachsler, Hendrik; Hummel, Hans; Koper, Rob

    2008-01-01

    Drachsler, H., Hummel, H. G. K., & Koper, R. (2009). Identifying the Goal, User model and Conditions of Recommender Systems for Formal and Informal Learning. Journal of Digital Information, 10(2), 4-24.

  18. A new HYSYS model for underground gasification of hydrocarbons under hydrothermal conditions

    KAUST Repository

    Alshammari, Y.M.; Hellgardt, K.

    2014-01-01

    A new subsurface process model was developed using the ASPEN HYSYS simulation environment to analyse the process energy and gasification efficiency at steady-state equilibrium conditions. Injection and production wells were simulated using the HYSYS

  19. Legendre condition and the stabilization problem for classical soliton solutions in generalized Skyrme models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kiknadze, N.A.; Khelashvili, A.A.

    1990-01-01

    The problem on stability of classical soliton solutions is studied from the unique point of view: the Legendre condition - necessary condition of existence of weak local minimum for energy functional (term soliton is used here in the wide sense) is used. Limits to parameters of the model Lagrangians are obtained; it is shown that there is no soliton stabilization in some of them despite the phenomenological achievements. The Jacoby sufficient condition is discussed

  20. Local Stability Conditions for Two Types of Monetary Models with Recursive Utility

    OpenAIRE

    Miyazaki, Kenji; Utsunomiya, Hitoshi

    2009-01-01

    This paper explores local stability conditions for money-in-utility-function (MIUF) and transaction-costs (TC) models with recursive utility.A monetary variant of the Brock-Gale condition provides a theoretical justification of the comparative statics analysis. One of sufficient conditions for local stability is increasing marginal impatience (IMI) in consumption and money. However, this does not deny the possibility of decreasing marginal impatience (DMI). The local stability with DMI is mor...

  1. Cross-polarization microwave radar return at severe wind conditions: laboratory model and geophysical model function.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troitskaya, Yuliya; Abramov, Victor; Ermoshkin, Alexey; Zuikova, Emma; Kazakov, Vassily; Sergeev, Daniil; Kandaurov, Alexandr

    2014-05-01

    Satellite remote sensing is one of the main techniques of monitoring severe weather conditions over the ocean. The principal difficulty of the existing algorithms of retrieving wind based on dependence of microwave backscattering cross-section on wind speed (Geophysical Model Function, GMF) is due to its saturation at winds exceeding 25 - 30 m/s. Recently analysis of dual- and quad-polarization C-band radar return measured from satellite Radarsat-2 suggested that the cross-polarized radar return has much higher sensitivity to the wind speed than co-polarized back scattering [1] and conserved sensitivity to wind speed at hurricane conditions [2]. Since complete collocation of these data was not possible and time difference in flight legs and SAR images acquisition was up to 3 hours, these two sets of data were compared in [2] only statistically. The main purpose of this paper is investigation of the functional dependence of cross-polarized radar cross-section on the wind speed in laboratory experiment. Since cross-polarized radar return is formed due to scattering at small-scale structures of the air-sea interface (short-crested waves, foam, sprays, etc), which are well reproduced in laboratory conditions, then the approach based on laboratory experiment on radar scattering of microwaves at the water surface under hurricane wind looks feasible. The experiments were performed in the Wind-wave flume located on top of the Large Thermostratified Tank of the Institute of Applied Physics, where the airflow was produced in the flume with the straight working part of 10 m and operating cross section 0.40?0.40 sq. m, the axis velocity can be varied from 5 to 25 m/s. Microwave measurements were carried out by a coherent Doppler X-band (3.2 cm) scatterometer with the consequent receive of linear polarizations. Experiments confirmed higher sensitivity to the wind speed of the cross-polarized radar return. Simultaneously parameters of the air flow in the turbulent boundary layer

  2. Asymptotics for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator in multivariate fractional time series models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ørregård Nielsen, Morten

    This paper proves consistency and asymptotic normality for the conditional-sum-of-squares estimator, which is equivalent to the conditional maximum likelihood estimator, in multivariate fractional time series models. The model is parametric and quite general, and, in particular, encompasses...... the multivariate non-cointegrated fractional ARIMA model. The novelty of the consistency result, in particular, is that it applies to a multivariate model and to an arbitrarily large set of admissible parameter values, for which the objective function does not converge uniformly in probablity, thus making...

  3. 76 FR 44245 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; Limit Engine Torque Loads for Sudden Engine...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-25

    ... Conditions No. 25-441-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; Limit Engine Torque Loads for... for transport category airplanes. These design features include engine size and the potential torque... engine mounts and the supporting structures must be designed to withstand a ``limit engine torque load...

  4. On the identification of fractionally cointegrated VAR models with the F(d) condition

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Carlini, Federico; Santucci de Magistris, Paolo

    with different fractional integration and cointegration parameters. The properties of these multiple non-identified sub-models are studied and a necessary and sufficient condition for the identification of the fractional parameters of the system is provided. The condition is named F(d). The assessment of the F(d...

  5. 75 FR 80735 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-12-23

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-10-03-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... airworthiness standards for transport category airplanes associated with the use of high incidence protection... transport airplane with an executive cabin interior. The maximum takeoff weight will be 99,600 pounds, with...

  6. 76 FR 17022 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence Protection

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-03-28

    ... Special Conditions No. 25-423-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Model GVI Airplane; High Incidence... for transport category airplanes associated with the use of high incidence protection. The applicable... with an executive cabin interior. The maximum takeoff weight will be 99,600 pounds, with a maximum...

  7. A model for determining condition-based maintenance policies for deteriorating multi-component systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hontelez, J.A.M.; Wijnmalen, D.J.D.

    1993-01-01

    We discuss a method to determine strategies for preventive maintenance of systems consisting of gradually deteriorating components. A model has been developed to compute not only the range of conditions inducing a repair action, but also inspection moments based on the last known condition value so

  8. Feeding Behavior of Aplysia: A Model System for Comparing Cellular Mechanisms of Classical and Operant Conditioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Douglas A.; Byrne, John H.

    2006-01-01

    Feeding behavior of Aplysia provides an excellent model system for analyzing and comparing mechanisms underlying appetitive classical conditioning and reward operant conditioning. Behavioral protocols have been developed for both forms of associative learning, both of which increase the occurrence of biting following training. Because the neural…

  9. Conditional dissipation of scalars in homogeneous turbulence: Closure for MMC modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wandel, Andrew P.

    2013-08-01

    While the mean and unconditional variance are to be predicted well by any reasonable turbulent combustion model, these are generally not sufficient for the accurate modelling of complex phenomena such as extinction/reignition. An additional criterion has been recently introduced: accurate modelling of the dissipation timescales associated with fluctuations of scalars about their conditional mean (conditional dissipation timescales). Analysis of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) results for a passive scalar shows that the conditional dissipation timescale is of the order of the integral timescale and smaller than the unconditional dissipation timescale. A model is proposed: the conditional dissipation timescale is proportional to the integral timescale. This model is used in Multiple Mapping Conditioning (MMC) modelling for a passive scalar case and a reactive scalar case, comparing to DNS results for both. The results show that this model improves the accuracy of MMC predictions so as to match the DNS results more closely using a relatively-coarse spatial resolution compared to other turbulent combustion models.

  10. Numerical investigations of rib fracture failure models in different dynamic loading conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Fang; Yang, Jikuang; Miller, Karol; Li, Guibing; Joldes, Grand R; Doyle, Barry; Wittek, Adam

    2016-01-01

    Rib fracture is one of the most common thoracic injuries in vehicle traffic accidents that can result in fatalities associated with seriously injured internal organs. A failure model is critical when modelling rib fracture to predict such injuries. Different rib failure models have been proposed in prediction of thorax injuries. However, the biofidelity of the fracture failure models when varying the loading conditions and the effects of a rib fracture failure model on prediction of thoracic injuries have been studied only to a limited extent. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the effects of three rib failure models on prediction of thoracic injuries using a previously validated finite element model of the human thorax. The performance and biofidelity of each rib failure model were first evaluated by modelling rib responses to different loading conditions in two experimental configurations: (1) the three-point bending on the specimen taken from rib and (2) the anterior-posterior dynamic loading to an entire bony part of the rib. Furthermore, the simulation of the rib failure behaviour in the frontal impact to an entire thorax was conducted at varying velocities and the effects of the failure models were analysed with respect to the severity of rib cage damages. Simulation results demonstrated that the responses of the thorax model are similar to the general trends of the rib fracture responses reported in the experimental literature. However, they also indicated that the accuracy of the rib fracture prediction using a given failure model varies for different loading conditions.

  11. Discrete Choice Model of Food Store Trips Using National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS)

    OpenAIRE

    Hillier, Amy; Smith, Tony E.; Whiteman, Eliza D.; Chrisinger, Benjamin W.

    2017-01-01

    Where households across income levels shop for food is of central concern within a growing body of research focused on where people live relative to where they shop, what they purchase and eat, and how those choices influence the risk of obesity and chronic disease. We analyzed data from the National Household Food Acquisition and Purchase Survey (FoodAPS) using a conditional logit model to determine where participants shop for food to be prepared and eaten at home and how individual and hous...

  12. Willingness to pay for flexible working conditions for people with type 2 diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nexø, Mette Andersen; Cleal, Bryan; Willaing, Ingrid

    Background The increasing number of people with chronic diseases challenges work force capacity. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) can have work related consequences such as increased risk of sickness absence and early retirement. Laws and guidelines of most high income countries, including Denmark, require...... implementation. Aim To examine Danish workers' willingness to pay (WTP) for five workplace initiatives that help individuals with type 2 diabetes manage their diabetes at work and to examine how background characteristics influence the WTP. Method Employed participants between 25 and 67 years from an online......’ and ‘without pay’. The WTP in Euro=€ for the five workplace initiatives was estimated by conditional logits models. Bootstrapping was used to estimate p- values examining significant differences (p type...

  13. MODELS OF AIR TRAFFIC CONTROLLERS ERRORS PREVENTION IN TERMINAL CONTROL AREAS UNDER UNCERTAINTY CONDITIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Volodymyr Kharchenko

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: the aim of this study is to research applied models of air traffic controllers’ errors prevention in terminal control areas (TMA under uncertainty conditions. In this work the theoretical framework descripting safety events and errors of air traffic controllers connected with the operations in TMA is proposed. Methods: optimisation of terminal control area formal description based on the Threat and Error management model and the TMA network model of air traffic flows. Results: the human factors variables associated with safety events in work of air traffic controllers under uncertainty conditions were obtained. The Threat and Error management model application principles to air traffic controller operations and the TMA network model of air traffic flows were proposed. Discussion: Information processing context for preventing air traffic controller errors, examples of threats in work of air traffic controllers, which are relevant for TMA operations under uncertainty conditions.

  14. Model Forecast Skill and Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in the Seasonal Sea Ice Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E.; Cullather, R. I.; Wang, W.; Zhang, J.; Bitz, C. M.

    2015-01-01

    We explore the skill of predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent from dynamical models participating in the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO). Forecasts submitted in August, at roughly 2 month lead times, are skillful. However, skill is lower in forecasts submitted to SIO, which began in 2008, than in hindcasts (retrospective forecasts) of the last few decades. The multimodel mean SIO predictions offer slightly higher skill than the single-model SIO predictions, but neither beats a damped persistence forecast at longer than 2 month lead times. The models are largely unsuccessful at predicting each other, indicating a large difference in model physics and/or initial conditions. Motivated by this, we perform an initial condition sensitivity experiment with four SIO models, applying a fixed -1 m perturbation to the initial sea ice thickness. The significant range of the response among the models suggests that different model physics make a significant contribution to forecast uncertainty.

  15. Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions in Greenland (phase II)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaquet, Olivier; Namar, Rabah; Siegel, Pascal; Jansson, Peter

    2012-11-01

    Within the framework of the GAP project, this second phase of geosphere modelling has enabled the development of an improved regional model that has led to a better representation of groundwater flow conditions likely to occur under ice sheet conditions. New data in relation to talik geometry and elevation, as well as to deformation zones were integrated in the geosphere model. In addition, more realistic hydraulic properties were considered for geosphere modelling; they were taken from the Laxemar site in Sweden. The geological medium with conductive deformation zones was modelled as a 3D continuum with stochastically hydraulic properties. Surface and basal glacial meltwater rates provided by a dynamic ice sheet model were assimilated into the groundwater flow model using mixed boundary conditions. The groundwater flow system is considered to be governed by infiltration of glacial meltwater in heterogeneous faulted crystalline rocks in the presence of permafrost and taliks. The characterisation of the permafrost-depth distribution was achieved using a coupled description of flow and heat transfer under steady state conditions. Using glaciological concepts and satellite data, an improved stochastic model was developed for the description at regional scale for the subglacial permafrost distribution in correlation with ice velocity and bed elevation data. Finally, the production of glacial meltwater by the ice sheet was traced for the determination of its depth and lateral extent. The major improvements are related to the type and handling of the subglacial boundary conditions. The use of meltwater rates provided by an ice sheet model applied as input to a mixed boundary condition enables to produce a more plausible flow field in the Eastern part of the domain, in comparison to previous modelling results (Jaquet et al. 2010). In addition, the integration of all potential taliks within the modelled domain provides a better characterisation of the likely groundwater

  16. Groundwater flow modelling under ice sheet conditions in Greenland (phase II)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jaquet, Olivier; Namar, Rabah; Siegel, Pascal [In2Earth Modelling Ltd, Lausanne (Switzerland); Jansson, Peter [Dept. of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology, Stockholm Univ., Stockholm (Sweden)

    2012-11-15

    Within the framework of the GAP project, this second phase of geosphere modelling has enabled the development of an improved regional model that has led to a better representation of groundwater flow conditions likely to occur under ice sheet conditions. New data in relation to talik geometry and elevation, as well as to deformation zones were integrated in the geosphere model. In addition, more realistic hydraulic properties were considered for geosphere modelling; they were taken from the Laxemar site in Sweden. The geological medium with conductive deformation zones was modelled as a 3D continuum with stochastically hydraulic properties. Surface and basal glacial meltwater rates provided by a dynamic ice sheet model were assimilated into the groundwater flow model using mixed boundary conditions. The groundwater flow system is considered to be governed by infiltration of glacial meltwater in heterogeneous faulted crystalline rocks in the presence of permafrost and taliks. The characterisation of the permafrost-depth distribution was achieved using a coupled description of flow and heat transfer under steady state conditions. Using glaciological concepts and satellite data, an improved stochastic model was developed for the description at regional scale for the subglacial permafrost distribution in correlation with ice velocity and bed elevation data. Finally, the production of glacial meltwater by the ice sheet was traced for the determination of its depth and lateral extent. The major improvements are related to the type and handling of the subglacial boundary conditions. The use of meltwater rates provided by an ice sheet model applied as input to a mixed boundary condition enables to produce a more plausible flow field in the Eastern part of the domain, in comparison to previous modelling results (Jaquet et al. 2010). In addition, the integration of all potential taliks within the modelled domain provides a better characterisation of the likely groundwater

  17. An Outflow Boundary Condition Model for Noninvasive Prediction of Fractional Flow Reserve in Diseased Coronary Arteries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fayssal, Iyad A; Moukalled, Fadl; Alam, Samir; Isma'eel, Hussain

    2018-04-01

    This paper reports on a new boundary condition formulation to model the total coronary myocardial flow and resistance characteristics of the myocardial vascular bed for any specific patient when considered for noninvasive diagnosis of ischemia. The developed boundary condition model gives an implicit representation of the downstream truncated coronary bed. Further, it is based on incorporating patient-specific physiological parameters that can be noninvasively extracted to account for blood flow demand to the myocardium at rest and hyperemic conditions. The model is coupled to a steady three-dimensional (3D) collocated pressure-based finite volume flow solver and used to characterize the "functional significance" of a patient diseased coronary artery segment without the need for predicting the hemodynamics of the entire arterial system. Predictions generated with this boundary condition provide a deep understanding of the inherent challenges behind noninvasive image-based diagnostic techniques when applied to human diseased coronary arteries. The overall numerical method and formulated boundary condition model are validated via two computational-based procedures and benchmarked with available measured data. The newly developed boundary condition is used via a designed computational methodology to (a) confirm the need for incorporating patient-specific physiological parameters when modeling the downstream coronary resistance, (b) explain the discrepancies presented in the literature between measured and computed fractional flow reserve (FFRCT), and (c) discuss the current limitations and future challenges in shifting to noninvasive assessment of ischemia.

  18. Asymmetries in conditional mean and variance: Modelling stock returns by asMA-asQGARCH

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brännäs, K.; de Gooijer, J.G.

    2000-01-01

    The asymmetric moving average model (asMA) is extended to allow for asymmetric quadratic conditional heteroskedasticity (asQGARCH). The asymmetric parametrization of the condi- tional variance encompasses the quadratic GARCH model of Sentana (1995). We introduce a framework for testing asymmetries

  19. Modelling the carbon cycle of grassland in the Netherlands under various management strategies and environmental conditions.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol-van Dasselaar, van den A.; Lantinga, E.A.

    1995-01-01

    A simulation model of the grassland carbon cycle (CCGRASS) was developed to evaluate the long-term effects of different management strategies and various environmental conditions on carbon sequestration in a loam soil under permanent grassland in the Netherlands. The model predicted that the rate of

  20. Modelling thermomechanical conditions at the tool/matrix interface in Friction Stir Welding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Henrik Nikolaj Blich; Hattel, Jesper

    2004-01-01

    is obtained. A fully coupled thermo-mechanical 3D FE model has been developed in ABAQUS/Explicit using the ALE formulation and the Johnson-Cook material law. The contact forces are modelled by Coulomb’s law of friction making the contact condition highly solution dependent. The heat is generated by both...

  1. Soot Formation Modeling of n-dodecane and Diesel Sprays under Engine-Like Conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pang, Kar Mun; Poon, Hiew Mun; Ng, Hoon Kiat

    2015-01-01

    This work concerns the modelling of soot formation process in diesel spray combustion under engine-like conditions. The key aim is to investigate the soot formation characteristics at different ambient temperatures. Prior to simulating the diesel combustion, numerical models including a revised...

  2. Model predictions and control of conditions in a CA-reefer container

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sman, van der R.G.M.; Verdijck, G.J.C.

    2003-01-01

    In this paper a concept for energy saving for refrigerated container transport is presented. The concept is based on model-predictive control of the set points of the cooling unit. These models predict energy consumption of the cooling unit, climatic conditions inside the cargo space, and the change

  3. Inference and testing on the boundary in extended constant conditional correlation GARCH models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Rasmus Søndergaard

    2017-01-01

    We consider inference and testing in extended constant conditional correlation GARCH models in the case where the true parameter vector is a boundary point of the parameter space. This is of particular importance when testing for volatility spillovers in the model. The large-sample properties...

  4. Photovoltaic Array Condition Monitoring Based on Online Regression of Performance Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Spataru, Sergiu; Sera, Dezso; Kerekes, Tamas

    2013-01-01

    regression modeling, from PV array production, plane-of-array irradiance, and module temperature measurements, acquired during an initial learning phase of the system. After the model has been parameterized automatically, the condition monitoring system enters the normal operation phase, where...

  5. A Second-Order Conditionally Linear Mixed Effects Model with Observed and Latent Variable Covariates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harring, Jeffrey R.; Kohli, Nidhi; Silverman, Rebecca D.; Speece, Deborah L.

    2012-01-01

    A conditionally linear mixed effects model is an appropriate framework for investigating nonlinear change in a continuous latent variable that is repeatedly measured over time. The efficacy of the model is that it allows parameters that enter the specified nonlinear time-response function to be stochastic, whereas those parameters that enter in a…

  6. Equilibrium and kinetic models for colloid release under transient solution chemistry conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    We present continuum models to describe colloid release in the subsurface during transient physicochemical conditions. Our modeling approach relates the amount of colloid release to changes in the fraction of the solid surface area that contributes to retention. Equilibrium, kinetic, equilibrium and...

  7. 76 FR 66660 - Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G280 Airplane, Operation Without Normal...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-27

    ... DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Federal Aviation Administration 14 CFR Part 25 [Docket No. FAA-2011-1172: Notice No. 25-11-17-SC] Special Conditions: Gulfstream Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G280 Airplane... Aerospace LP (GALP) Model G280 airplane. This airplane will have a novel or unusual design feature...

  8. Exact sampling from conditional Boolean models with applications to maximum likelihood inference

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lieshout, van M.N.M.; Zwet, van E.W.

    2001-01-01

    We are interested in estimating the intensity parameter of a Boolean model of discs (the bombing model) from a single realization. To do so, we derive the conditional distribution of the points (germs) of the underlying Poisson process. We demonstrate how to apply coupling from the past to generate

  9. Significance of settling model structures and parameter subsets in modelling WWTPs under wet-weather flow and filamentous bulking conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Plósz, Benedek Gy

    2014-10-15

    Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D) SST model structures and parameters. We identify the critical sources of uncertainty in WWTP models through global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using the Benchmark simulation model No. 1 in combination with first- and second-order 1-D SST models. The results obtained illustrate that the contribution of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets for WWTP model calibration, and propose optimal choice of 1-D SST models under different flow and settling boundary conditions. Additionally, the hydraulic parameters in the second-order SST model are found significant under dynamic wet-weather flow conditions. These results highlight the importance of developing a more mechanistic based flow-dependent hydraulic sub-model in second-order 1-D SST models in the future. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Determination of particle-release conditions in microfiltration: A simple single-particle model tested on a model membrane

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuiper, S.; van Rijn, C.J.M.; Nijdam, W.; Krijnen, Gijsbertus J.M.; Elwenspoek, Michael Curt

    2000-01-01

    A simple single-particle model was developed for cross-flow microfiltration with microsieves. The model describes the cross-flow conditions required to release a trapped spherical particle from a circular pore. All equations are derived in a fully analytical way without any fitting parameters. For

  11. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  12. Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanauskienė Irena

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been unified conditions, describing the case of controlled interventions thus providing preconditions to ensure the adequacy of the proposed decision-making process model.

  13. Modeling Macrosegregation in Directionally Solidified Aluminum Alloys under Gravitational and Microgravitational Conditions.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lauer, Mark A.; Poirier, David R.; Erdmann, Robert G.; Tewari, Surendra N.; Madison, Jonathan D

    2014-09-01

    This report covers the modeling of seven directionally solidified samples, five under normal gravitational conditions and two in microgravity. A model is presented to predict macrosegregation during the melting phases of samples solidified under microgravitational conditions. The results of this model are compared against two samples processed in microgravity and good agreement is found. A second model is presented that captures thermosolutal convection during directional solidification. Results for this model are compared across several experiments and quantitative comparisons are made between the model and the experimentally obtained radial macrosegregation profiles with good agreement being found. Changes in cross section were present in some samples and micrographs of these are qualitatively compared with the results of the simulations. It is found that macrosegregation patterns can be affected by changing the mold material.

  14. Multiphase-field model of small strain elasto-plasticity according to the mechanical jump conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Christoph; Schoof, Ephraim; Schneider, Daniel; Schwab, Felix; Reiter, Andreas; Selzer, Michael; Nestler, Britta

    2018-04-01

    We introduce a small strain elasto-plastic multiphase-field model according to the mechanical jump conditions. A rate-independent J_2 -plasticity model with linear isotropic hardening and without kinematic hardening is applied exemplary. Generally, any physically nonlinear mechanical model is compatible with the subsequently presented procedure. In contrast to models with interpolated material parameters, the proposed model is able to apply different nonlinear mechanical constitutive equations for each phase separately. The Hadamard compatibility condition and the static force balance are employed as homogenization approaches to calculate the phase-inherent stresses and strains. Several verification cases are discussed. The applicability of the proposed model is demonstrated by simulations of the martensitic transformation and quantitative parameters.

  15. A participatory model for improving occupational health and safety: improving informal sector working conditions in Thailand.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manothum, Aniruth; Rukijkanpanich, Jittra; Thawesaengskulthai, Damrong; Thampitakkul, Boonwa; Chaikittiporn, Chalermchai; Arphorn, Sara

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the implementation of an Occupational Health and Safety Management Model for informal sector workers in Thailand. The studied model was characterized by participatory approaches to preliminary assessment, observation of informal business practices, group discussion and participation, and the use of environmental measurements and samples. This model consisted of four processes: capacity building, risk analysis, problem solving, and monitoring and control. The participants consisted of four local labor groups from different regions, including wood carving, hand-weaving, artificial flower making, and batik processing workers. The results demonstrated that, as a result of applying the model, the working conditions of the informal sector workers had improved to meet necessary standards. This model encouraged the use of local networks, which led to cooperation within the groups to create appropriate technologies to solve their problems. The authors suggest that this model could effectively be applied elsewhere to improve informal sector working conditions on a broader scale.

  16. Modeling long period swell in Southern California: Practical boundary conditions from buoy observations and global wave model predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crosby, S. C.; O'Reilly, W. C.; Guza, R. T.

    2016-02-01

    Accurate, unbiased, high-resolution (in space and time) nearshore wave predictions are needed to drive models of beach erosion, coastal flooding, and alongshore transport of sediment, biota and pollutants. On highly sheltered shorelines, wave predictions are sensitive to the directions of onshore propagating waves, and nearshore model prediction error is often dominated by uncertainty in offshore boundary conditions. Offshore islands and shoals, and coastline curvature, create complex sheltering patterns over the 250km span of southern California (SC) shoreline. Here, regional wave model skill in SC was compared for different offshore boundary conditions created using offshore buoy observations and global wave model hindcasts (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Wave Watch 3, WW3). Spectral ray-tracing methods were used to transform incident offshore swell (0.04-0.09Hz) energy at high directional resolution (1-deg). Model skill is assessed for predictions (wave height, direction, and alongshore radiation stress) at 16 nearshore buoy sites between 2000 and 2009. Model skill using buoy-derived boundary conditions is higher than with WW3-derived boundary conditions. Buoy-driven nearshore model results are similar with various assumptions about the true offshore directional distribution (maximum entropy, Bayesian direct, and 2nd derivative smoothness). Two methods combining offshore buoy observations with WW3 predictions in the offshore boundary condition did not improve nearshore skill above buoy-only methods. A case example at Oceanside harbor shows strong sensitivity of alongshore sediment transport predictions to different offshore boundary conditions. Despite this uncertainty in alongshore transport magnitude, alongshore gradients in transport (e.g. the location of model accretion and erosion zones) are determined by the local bathymetry, and are similar for all predictions.

  17. Fission Product Transport Models Adopted in REFPAC Code for LOCA Conditions in PWR and WWER NPPS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Strupczewski, A.

    2003-01-01

    The report presents assumptions and physical models used for calculations of fission product releases from nuclear reactors, their behavior inside the containment and leakages to the environment after large break loss of coolant accident LB LOCA. They are the basis of code REFPAC (RElease of Fission Products under Accident Conditions), designed primarily to represent significant physical processes occurring after LB LOCA. The code describes these processes using three different models. Model 1 corresponds to established US and Russian practice, Model 2 includes all conservative assumptions that are in agreement with the actual state-of-the-art, and Model 3 incorporates formulae and parameter values actually used in EU practice. (author)

  18. A Conditional Curie-Weiss Model for Stylized Multi-group Binary Choice with Social Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opoku, Alex Akwasi; Edusei, Kwame Owusu; Ansah, Richard Kwame

    2018-04-01

    This paper proposes a conditional Curie-Weiss model as a model for decision making in a stylized society made up of binary decision makers that face a particular dichotomous choice between two options. Following Brock and Durlauf (Discrete choice with social interaction I: theory, 1955), we set-up both socio-economic and statistical mechanical models for the choice problem. We point out when both the socio-economic and statistical mechanical models give rise to the same self-consistent equilibrium mean choice level(s). Phase diagram of the associated statistical mechanical model and its socio-economic implications are discussed.

  19. A comparative study of various inflow boundary conditions and turbulence models for wind turbine wake predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Lin-Lin; Zhao, Ning; Song, Yi-Lei; Zhu, Chun-Ling

    2018-05-01

    This work is devoted to perform systematic sensitivity analysis of different turbulence models and various inflow boundary conditions in predicting the wake flow behind a horizontal axis wind turbine represented by an actuator disc (AD). The tested turbulence models are the standard k-𝜀 model and the Reynolds Stress Model (RSM). A single wind turbine immersed in both uniform flows and in modeled atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) flows is studied. Simulation results are validated against the field experimental data in terms of wake velocity and turbulence intensity.

  20. Modeling the Process of Event Sequence Data Generated for Working Condition Diagnosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianwei Ding

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Condition monitoring systems are widely used to monitor the working condition of equipment, generating a vast amount and variety of telemetry data in the process. The main task of surveillance focuses on analyzing these routinely collected telemetry data to help analyze the working condition in the equipment. However, with the rapid increase in the volume of telemetry data, it is a nontrivial task to analyze all the telemetry data to understand the working condition of the equipment without any a priori knowledge. In this paper, we proposed a probabilistic generative model called working condition model (WCM, which is capable of simulating the process of event sequence data generated and depicting the working condition of equipment at runtime. With the help of WCM, we are able to analyze how the event sequence data behave in different working modes and meanwhile to detect the working mode of an event sequence (working condition diagnosis. Furthermore, we have applied WCM to illustrative applications like automated detection of an anomalous event sequence for the runtime of equipment. Our experimental results on the real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the model.

  1. A comparative modeling study of a dual tracer experiment in a large lysimeter under atmospheric conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stumpp, C.; Nützmann, G.; Maciejewski, S.; Maloszewski, P.

    2009-09-01

    SummaryIn this paper, five model approaches with different physical and mathematical concepts varying in their model complexity and requirements were applied to identify the transport processes in the unsaturated zone. The applicability of these model approaches were compared and evaluated investigating two tracer breakthrough curves (bromide, deuterium) in a cropped, free-draining lysimeter experiment under natural atmospheric boundary conditions. The data set consisted of time series of water balance, depth resolved water contents, pressure heads and resident concentrations measured during 800 days. The tracer transport parameters were determined using a simple stochastic (stream tube model), three lumped parameter (constant water content model, multi-flow dispersion model, variable flow dispersion model) and a transient model approach. All of them were able to fit the tracer breakthrough curves. The identified transport parameters of each model approach were compared. Despite the differing physical and mathematical concepts the resulting parameters (mean water contents, mean water flux, dispersivities) of the five model approaches were all in the same range. The results indicate that the flow processes are also describable assuming steady state conditions. Homogeneous matrix flow is dominant and a small pore volume with enhanced flow velocities near saturation was identified with variable saturation flow and transport approach. The multi-flow dispersion model also identified preferential flow and additionally suggested a third less mobile flow component. Due to high fitting accuracy and parameter similarity all model approaches indicated reliable results.

  2. Comparison of US/FRG accident condition models for HTGR fuel failure and radionuclide release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verfondern, K.

    1991-03-01

    The objective was to compare calculation models used in safety analyses in the US and FRG which describe fission product release behavior from TRISO coated fuel particles under core heatup accident conditions. The frist step performed is the qualitative comparison of both sides' fuel failure and release models in order to identify differences and similarities in modeling assumptions and inputs. Assumptions of possible particle failure mechanisms under accident conditions (SiC degradation, pressure vessel) are principally the same on both sides though they are used in different modeling approaches. The characterization of a standard (= intact) coated particle to be of non-releasing (GA) or possibly releasing (KFA/ISF) type is one of the major qualitative differences. Similar models are used regarding radionuclide release from exposed particle kernels. In a second step, a quantitative comparison of the calculation models was made by assessing a benchmark problem predicting particle failure and radionuclide release under MHTGR conduction cooldown accident conditions. Calculations with each side's reference method have come to almost the same failure fractions after 250 hours for the core region with maximum core heatup temperature despite the different modeling approaches of SORS and PANAMA-I. The comparison of the results of particle failure obtained with the Integrated Failure and Release Model for Standard Particles and its revision provides a 'verification' of these models in this sense that the codes (SORS and PANAMA-II, and -III, respectively) which were independently developed lead to very good agreement in the predictions. (orig./HP) [de

  3. A review on condition-based maintenance optimization models for stochastically deteriorating system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alaswad, Suzan; Xiang, Yisha

    2017-01-01

    Condition-based maintenance (CBM) is a maintenance strategy that collects and assesses real-time information, and recommends maintenance decisions based on the current condition of the system. In recent decades, research on CBM has been rapidly growing due to the rapid development of computer-based monitoring technologies. Research studies have proven that CBM, if planned properly, can be effective in improving equipment reliability at reduced costs. This paper presents a review of CBM literature with emphasis on mathematical modeling and optimization approaches. We focus this review on important aspects of the CBM, such as optimization criteria, inspection frequency, maintenance degree, solution methodology, etc. Since the modeling choice for the stochastic deterioration process greatly influences CBM strategy decisions, this review classifies the literature on CBM models based on the underlying deterioration processes, namely discrete- and continuous-state deterioration, and proportional hazard model. CBM models for multi-unit systems are also reviewed in this paper. This paper provides useful references for CBM management professionals and researchers working on CBM modeling and optimization. - Highlights: • A review on Condition-based maintenance (CBM) optimization models is presented. • The CBM models are classified based on the underlying deterioration processes. • Existing CBM models for both single- and multi-unit systems are reviewed. • Future essential research directions on CBM are identified.

  4. A Bayesian localized conditional autoregressive model for estimating the health effects of air pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Duncan; Rushworth, Alastair; Sahu, Sujit K

    2014-06-01

    Estimation of the long-term health effects of air pollution is a challenging task, especially when modeling spatial small-area disease incidence data in an ecological study design. The challenge comes from the unobserved underlying spatial autocorrelation structure in these data, which is accounted for using random effects modeled by a globally smooth conditional autoregressive model. These smooth random effects confound the effects of air pollution, which are also globally smooth. To avoid this collinearity a Bayesian localized conditional autoregressive model is developed for the random effects. This localized model is flexible spatially, in the sense that it is not only able to model areas of spatial smoothness, but also it is able to capture step changes in the random effects surface. This methodological development allows us to improve the estimation performance of the covariate effects, compared to using traditional conditional auto-regressive models. These results are established using a simulation study, and are then illustrated with our motivating study on air pollution and respiratory ill health in Greater Glasgow, Scotland in 2011. The model shows substantial health effects of particulate matter air pollution and nitrogen dioxide, whose effects have been consistently attenuated by the currently available globally smooth models. © 2014, The Authors Biometrics published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Biometric Society.

  5. Applicability of common stomatal conductance models in maize under varying soil moisture conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Qiuling; He, Qijin; Zhou, Guangsheng

    2018-07-01

    In the context of climate warming, the varying soil moisture caused by precipitation pattern change will affect the applicability of stomatal conductance models, thereby affecting the simulation accuracy of carbon-nitrogen-water cycles in ecosystems. We studied the applicability of four common stomatal conductance models including Jarvis, Ball-Woodrow-Berry (BWB), Ball-Berry-Leuning (BBL) and unified stomatal optimization (USO) models based on summer maize leaf gas exchange data from a soil moisture consecutive decrease manipulation experiment. The results showed that the USO model performed best, followed by the BBL model, BWB model, and the Jarvis model performed worst under varying soil moisture conditions. The effects of soil moisture made a difference in the relative performance among the models. By introducing a water response function, the performance of the Jarvis, BWB, and USO models improved, which decreased the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) by 15.7%, 16.6% and 3.9%, respectively; however, the performance of the BBL model was negative, which increased the NRMSE by 5.3%. It was observed that the models of Jarvis, BWB, BBL and USO were applicable within different ranges of soil relative water content (i.e., 55%-65%, 56%-67%, 37%-79% and 37%-95%, respectively) based on the 95% confidence limits. Moreover, introducing a water response function, the applicability of the Jarvis and BWB models improved. The USO model performed best with or without introducing the water response function and was applicable under varying soil moisture conditions. Our results provide a basis for selecting appropriate stomatal conductance models under drought conditions. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. A model of amygdala-hippocampal-prefrontal interaction in fear conditioning and extinction in animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Gilbertson, Mark W.; Orr, Scott P.; Herzallah, Mohammad M.; Servatius, Richard. J.; Myers, Catherine E.

    2012-01-01

    Empirical research has shown that the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are involved in fear conditioning. However, the functional contribution of each brain area and the nature of their interactions are not clearly understood. Here, we extend existing neural network models of the functional roles of the hippocampus in classical conditioning to include interactions with the amygdala and prefrontal cortex. We apply the model to fear conditioning, in which animals learn physiological (e.g. heart rate) and behavioral (e.g. freezing) responses to stimuli that have been paired with a highly aversive event (e.g. electrical shock). The key feature of our model is that learning of these conditioned responses in the central nucleus of the amygdala is modulated by two separate processes, one from basolateral amygdala and signaling a positive prediction error, and one from the vmPFC, via the intercalated cells of the amygdala, and signaling a negative prediction error. In addition, we propose that hippocampal input to both vmPFC and basolateral amygdala is essential for contextual modulation of fear acquisition and extinction. The model is sufficient to account for a body of data from various animal fear conditioning paradigms, including acquisition, extinction, reacquisition, and context specificity effects. Consistent with studies on lesioned animals, our model shows that damage to the vmPFC impairs extinction, while damage to the hippocampus impairs extinction in a different context (e.g., a different conditioning chamber from that used in initial training in animal experiments). We also discuss model limitations and predictions, including the effects of number of training trials on fear conditioning. PMID:23164732

  7. Do simple models give a correct description of the wind condition in a coastal area ?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaellstrand, B. [Uppsala Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology

    1996-12-01

    When the surface conditions changes at a coastline, an internal boundary layer evolves, with a wind speed and turbulence intensity influenced by these new conditions. Aircraft measurements across the coastline, performed during near neutral conditions, are compared with a model and thirteen more simple expressions for the growth of an internal boundary layer (IBL). The majority of the expressions overestimate the IBL height, while other underestimate it. Some of the expressions give reasonable result close to the coast. The model gives good agreement, even for larger distances. The vertical potential temperature gradient turned out to be an important parameter for the growth of the IBL, even with this near neutral conditions. 21 refs, 5 figs, 1 tab

  8. Effects of Test Conditions on APA Rutting and Prediction Modeling for Asphalt Mixtures

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available APA rutting tests were conducted for six kinds of asphalt mixtures under air-dry and immersing conditions. The influences of test conditions, including load, temperature, air voids, and moisture, on APA rutting depth were analyzed by using grey correlation method, and the APA rutting depth prediction model was established. Results show that the modified asphalt mixtures have bigger rutting depth ratios of air-dry to immersing conditions, indicating that the modified asphalt mixtures have better antirutting properties and water stability than the matrix asphalt mixtures. The grey correlation degrees of temperature, load, air void, and immersing conditions on APA rutting depth decrease successively, which means that temperature is the most significant influencing factor. The proposed indoor APA rutting prediction model has good prediction accuracy, and the correlation coefficient between the predicted and the measured rutting depths is 96.3%.

  9. Modelling Conditional and Unconditional Heteroskedasticity with Smoothly Time-Varying Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Amado, Christina; Teräsvirta, Timo

    multiplier type misspecification tests. Finite-sample properties of these procedures and tests are examined by simulation. An empirical application to daily stock returns and another one to daily exchange rate returns illustrate the functioning and properties of our modelling strategy in practice......In this paper, we propose two parametric alternatives to the standard GARCH model. They allow the conditional variance to have a smooth time-varying structure of either ad- ditive or multiplicative type. The suggested parameterizations describe both nonlinearity and structural change...... in the conditional and unconditional variances where the transition between regimes over time is smooth. A modelling strategy for these new time-varying parameter GARCH models is developed. It relies on a sequence of Lagrange multiplier tests, and the adequacy of the estimated models is investigated by Lagrange...

  10. An Improved Matlab-Simulink Model of PV Module considering Ambient Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ayaz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available A photovoltaic (PV model is proposed on Matlab/Simulink environment considering the real atmospheric conditions and this PV model is tested with different PV panels technologies (monocrystalline silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and thin film. The meteorological data of Istanbul—the location of the study—such as irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed are taken into account in the proposed model for each technology. Eventually, the power outputs of the PV module under real atmospheric conditions are measured for resistive loading and these powers are compared with the results of proposed PV model. As a result of the comparison, it is shown that the proposed model is more compatible for monocrystal silicon and thin-film modules; however, it does not show a good correlation with polycrystalline silicon PV module.

  11. On conditions and parameters important to model sensitivity for unsaturated flow through layered, fractured tuff

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prindle, R.W.; Hopkins, P.L.

    1990-10-01

    The Hydrologic Code Intercomparison Project (HYDROCOIN) was formed to evaluate hydrogeologic models and computer codes and their use in performance assessment for high-level radioactive-waste repositories. This report describes the results of a study for HYDROCOIN of model sensitivity for isothermal, unsaturated flow through layered, fractured tuffs. We investigated both the types of flow behavior that dominate the performance measures and the conditions and model parameters that control flow behavior. We also examined the effect of different conceptual models and modeling approaches on our understanding of system behavior. The analyses included single- and multiple-parameter variations about base cases in one-dimensional steady and transient flow and in two-dimensional steady flow. The flow behavior is complex even for the highly simplified and constrained system modeled here. The response of the performance measures is both nonlinear and nonmonotonic. System behavior is dominated by abrupt transitions from matrix to fracture flow and by lateral diversion of flow. The observed behaviors are strongly influenced by the imposed boundary conditions and model constraints. Applied flux plays a critical role in determining the flow type but interacts strongly with the composite-conductivity curves of individual hydrologic units and with the stratigraphy. One-dimensional modeling yields conservative estimates of distributions of groundwater travel time only under very limited conditions. This study demonstrates that it is wrong to equate the shortest possible water-travel path with the fastest path from the repository to the water table. 20 refs., 234 figs., 10 tabs

  12. Preliminary Two-Phase Terry Turbine Nozzle Models for RCIC Off-Design Operation Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhao, Haihua [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); O' Brien, James [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2017-06-12

    This report presents the effort to extend the single-phase analytical Terry turbine model to cover two-phase off-design conditions. The work includes: (1) adding well-established two-phase choking models – the Isentropic Homogenous Equilibrium Model (IHEM) and Moody’s model, and (2) theoretical development and implementation of a two-phase nozzle expansion model. The two choking models provide bounding cases for the two-phase choking mass flow rate. The new two-phase Terry turbine model uses the choking models to calculate the mass flow rate, the critical pressure at the nozzle throat, and steam quality. In the divergent stage, we only consider the vapor phase with a similar model for the single-phase case by assuming that the liquid phase would slip along the wall with a much slower speed and will not contribute the impulse on the rotor. We also modify the stagnation conditions according to two-phase choking conditions at the throat and the cross-section areas for steam flow at the nozzle throat and at the nozzle exit. The new two-phase Terry turbine model was benchmarked with the same steam nozzle test as for the single-phase model. Better agreement with the experimental data is observed than from the single-phase model. We also repeated the Terry turbine nozzle benchmark work against the Sandia CFD simulation results with the two-phase model for the pure steam inlet nozzle case. The RCIC start-up tests were simulated and compared with the single-phase model. Similar results are obtained. Finally, we designed a new RCIC system test case to simulate the self-regulated Terry turbine behavior observed in Fukushima accidents. In this test, a period inlet condition for the steam quality varying from 1 to 0 is applied. For the high quality inlet period, the RCIC system behaves just like the normal operation condition with a high pump injection flow rate and a nominal steam release rate through the turbine, with the net addition of water to the primary system; for

  13. An endogenous Taylor condition in an endogenous growth monetary policy model

    OpenAIRE

    Le, Mai Vo; Gillman, Max; Minford, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    The paper derives a Taylor condition as part of the agent's equilibrium behavior in an endogenous growth monetary economy. It shows the assumptions necessary to make it almost identical to the original Taylor rule, and that it can interchangably take a money supply growth rate form. From the money supply form, simple policy experiments are conducted. A full central bank policy model is derived that includes the Taylor condition along with equations comparable to the standard aggregate-demand/...

  14. Model test study of evaporation mechanism of sand under constant atmospheric condition

    OpenAIRE

    CUI, Yu Jun; DING, Wenqi; SONG, Weikang

    2014-01-01

    The evaporation mechanism of Fontainebleau sand using a large-scale model chamber is studied. First, the evaporation test on a layer of water above sand surface is performed under various atmospheric conditions, validating the performance of the chamber and the calculation method of actual evaporation rate by comparing the calculated and measured cumulative evaporations. Second,the evaporation test on sand without water layer is conducted under constant atmospheric condition. Both the evoluti...

  15. A note on the conditional density estimate in single functional index model

    OpenAIRE

    2010-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we consider estimation of the conditional density of a scalar response variable Y given a Hilbertian random variable X when the observations are linked with a single-index structure. We establish the pointwise and the uniform almost complete convergence (with the rate) of the kernel estimate of this model. As an application, we show how our result can be applied in the prediction problem via the conditional mode estimate. Finally, the estimation of the funct...

  16. Extension of the PMV model to non-air-conditioned building in warm climates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fanger, Povl Ole; Toftum, Jørn

    2002-01-01

    The PMV model agrees well with high-quality field studies in buildings with HVAC systems, situated in cold, temperate and warm climates, studied during both summer and winter. In non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates, occupants may sense the warmth as being less severe than the PMV...... predicts. The main reason is low expectations, but a metabolic rate that is estimated too high can also contribute to explaining the difference. An extension of the PMV model that includes an expectancy factor is introduced for use in non-air-conditioned buildings in warm climates. The extended PMV model...... agrees well with quality field studies in non-air-conditioned buildings of three continents....

  17. Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

    2017-01-01

    Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

  18. Modeling of flow conditions in down draft gasifiers using tin film models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Torben Kvist; Gøbel, Benny; Henriksen, Ulrik Birk

    2003-01-01

    In order to examine how an inhomogeneous char bed affects the gas flow through the bed, a dynamic model have been developed to describe the flow distribution in a down draft gasifier. The gas flow distribution through the bed was determined using a thin film model approach. The temperatures...

  19. On the role of model depth and hydraulic properties for groundwater flow modelling during glacial climate conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vidstrand, Patrik; Rhen, Ingvar

    2011-03-01

    A common assumption in regional groundwater flow simulations of periods with glacial climate conditions is that the salinity at the bottom boundary of the model domain is stable (constant over time). This assumption is partly based on the general fact that water density increases with increasing salinity, but also supported by measurements, e.g. the mobile (fracture water) and immobile (porewater) salinity typically increase with depth, whereas the conductive fracture frequency and fracture transmissivity often decrease with depth. Plausibly, the depth to stable hydrogeological conditions varies between sites, and the question studied here is whether hydrogeological disturbances could occur at 2-4 km depth during glacial climate conditions. With regard to the results of SDM-Site and SR-Site, the hydrogeological conditions at repository depth indicate less groundwater flow during glacial climate conditions at Forsmark than at Laxemar. For this reason, this study uses the Laxemar site as a hypothetical site of potentially more permeable conditions, hence more readily affected during glacial climate conditions. A series of flow simulations conducted with DarcyTools in an approximately 5 km deep, super-regional model domain centred on the Laxemar site are reported. The studied cases (model variants) represent a variety of different property specifications along with variations in initial conditions concerning salinity. The model domain is subjected to a transient top boundary representing an advancing ice sheet margin. The behaviour of the grid cell pressure, Darcy flux and mobile salinity is monitored at four different elevations along a vertical scan line through the centre of the suggested location for a KBS-3 repository at Laxemar. The studied monitoring points are located at -0.5 km, -2.5 km, -3.0 km, and -3.5 km. These elevations are chosen with the objective to study the range of hydrogeological disturbance that could occur at 2-4 km depth. The flow model is run

  20. On the role of model depth and hydraulic properties for groundwater flow modelling during glacial climate conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB (Sweden))

    2011-03-15

    A common assumption in regional groundwater flow simulations of periods with glacial climate conditions is that the salinity at the bottom boundary of the model domain is stable (constant over time). This assumption is partly based on the general fact that water density increases with increasing salinity, but also supported by measurements, e.g. the mobile (fracture water) and immobile (porewater) salinity typically increase with depth, whereas the conductive fracture frequency and fracture transmissivity often decrease with depth. Plausibly, the depth to stable hydrogeological conditions varies between sites, and the question studied here is whether hydrogeological disturbances could occur at 2-4 km depth during glacial climate conditions. With regard to the results of SDM-Site and SR-Site, the hydrogeological conditions at repository depth indicate less groundwater flow during glacial climate conditions at Forsmark than at Laxemar. For this reason, this study uses the Laxemar site as a hypothetical site of potentially more permeable conditions, hence more readily affected during glacial climate conditions. A series of flow simulations conducted with DarcyTools in an approximately 5 km deep, super-regional model domain centred on the Laxemar site are reported. The studied cases (model variants) represent a variety of different property specifications along with variations in initial conditions concerning salinity. The model domain is subjected to a transient top boundary representing an advancing ice sheet margin. The behaviour of the grid cell pressure, Darcy flux and mobile salinity is monitored at four different elevations along a vertical scan line through the centre of the suggested location for a KBS-3 repository at Laxemar. The studied monitoring points are located at -0.5 km, -2.5 km, -3.0 km, and -3.5 km. These elevations are chosen with the objective to study the range of hydrogeological disturbance that could occur at 2-4 km depth. The flow model is run

  1. Oblique radiation lateral open boundary conditions for a regional climate atmospheric model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabos Narvaez, William; De Frutos Redondo, Jose Antonio; Perez Sanz, Juan Ignacio; Sein, Dmitry

    2013-04-01

    The prescription of lateral boundary conditions in regional atmospheric models represent a very important issue for limited area models. The ill-posed nature of the open boundary conditions makes it necessary to devise schemes in order to filter spurious wave reflections at boundaries, being desirable to have one boundary condition per variable. On the other side, due to the essentially hyperbolic nature of the equations solved in state of the art atmospheric models, external data is required only for inward boundary fluxes. These circumstances make radiation lateral boundary conditions a good choice for the filtering of spurious wave reflections. Here we apply the adaptive oblique radiation modification proposed by Mikoyada and Roseti to each of the prognostic variables of the REMO regional atmospheric model and compare it to the more common normal radiation condition used in REMO. In the proposed scheme, special attention is paid to the estimation of the radiation phase speed, essential to detecting the direction of boundary fluxes. One of the differences with the classical scheme is that in case of outward propagation, the adaptive nudging imposed in the boundaries allows to minimize under and over specifications problems, adequately incorporating the external information.

  2. Terrestrial spreading centers under Venus conditions - Evaluation of a crustal spreading model for Western Aphrodite Terra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sotin, C.; Senske, D. A.; Head, J. W.; Parmentier, E. M.

    1989-01-01

    The model of Reid and Jackson (1981) for terrestrial spreading centers is applied to Venus conditions. On the basis of spreading rate, mantle temperature, and surface temperature, the model predicts both isostatic topography and crustal thickness. The model and Pioneer Venus altimetry and gravity data are used to test the hypothesis of Head and Crumpler (1987) that Western Aphrodite Terra is the location of crustal spreading on Venus. It is concluded that a spreading center model for Ovda Regio in Western Aphrodite Terra could account for the observed topography and line-of-sight gravity anomalies found in the Pioneer data.

  3. Wind turbine condition monitoring based on SCADA data using normal behavior models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlechtingen, Meik; Santos, Ilmar; Achiche, Sofiane

    2013-01-01

    This paper proposes a system for wind turbine condition monitoring using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Interference Systems (ANFIS). For this purpose: (1) ANFIS normal behavior models for common Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data are developed in order to detect abnormal behavior...... the applicability of ANFIS models for monitoring wind turbine SCADA signals. The computational time needed for model training is compared to Neural Network (NN) models showing the strength of ANFIS in training speed. (2) For automation of fault diagnosis Fuzzy Interference Systems (FIS) are used to analyze...

  4. COMPONENT SUPPLY MODEL FOR REPAIR ACTIVITIES NETWORK UNDER CONDITIONS OF PROBABILISTIC INDEFINITENESS.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Victor Yurievich Stroganov

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available This article contains the systematization of the major production functions of repair activities network and the list of planning and control functions, which are described in the form of business processes (BP. Simulation model for analysis of the delivery effectiveness of components under conditions of probabilistic uncertainty was proposed. It has been shown that a significant portion of the total number of business processes is represented by the management and planning of the parts and components movement. Questions of construction of experimental design techniques on the simulation model in the conditions of non-stationarity were considered.

  5. Bundling into the future - Structural conditions for business model design in new ICT services

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Henten, Anders; Godø, Helge

    of services in terms of structural conditions market-wise and in regulatory terms. As the two service categories are relatively new on the market, dominating business model designs have not yet settled and the strategic choices of companies are still open. Being on the market, the discussion on the business......Based on a case study of multi-play and mobile voice over IP (MVoIP) in primarily Denmark and Norway, the paper presents an analysis of the structural conditions for the design of business models regarding new information and communication services. Multi-play and MVoIP represent different kinds...

  6. Separating expansion from contraction: generalized TOV condition, LTB models with pressure and $\\Lambda$CDM

    CERN Document Server

    Delliou, Morgan Le; Mimoso, José Pedro

    2010-01-01

    We discuss the existence of a dividing shell separating expanding and collapsing regions in spherically symmetric solutions with pressure. We obtain gauge invariant conditions relating not only the intrinsic spatial curvature of the shells to the ADM mass, but also a function of the pressure which we introduce that generalises the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equilibrium condition, in the framework of a 3+1 spacetime splitting. We consider the particular case of a Lema\\^itre-Tolman-Bondi dust models with a cosmological constant (a $\\Lambda$-CDM model) as an example of our results.

  7. Interface model conditions for a non-equilibrium heat transfer model for conjugate fluid/porous/solid domains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Betchen, L.J.; Straatman, A.G.

    2005-01-01

    A mathematical and numerical model for the treatment of conjugate fluid flow and heat transfer problems in domains containing pure fluid, porous, and pure solid regions has been developed. The model is general and physically reasoned, and allows for local thermal non-equilibrium in the porous region. The model is developed for implementation on a simple collocated finite volume grid. Of particular novelty are the conditions implemented at the interfaces between porous regions, and those containing a pure solid or pure fluid. The model is validated by simulation of a three-dimensional porous plug problem for which experimental results are available. (author)

  8. Estimation of antecedent wetness conditions for flood modelling in northern Morocco

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available In northern Morocco are located most of the dams and reservoirs of the country, while this region is affected by severe rainfall events causing floods. To improve the management of the water regulation structures, there is a need to develop rainfall–runoff models to both maximize the storage capacity and reduce the risks caused by floods. In this study, a model is developed to reproduce the flood events for a 655 km2 catchment located upstream of the 6th largest dam in Morocco. Constrained by data availability, a standard event-based model combining a SCS-CN (Soil Conservation Service Curve Number loss model and a Clark unit hydrograph was developed for hourly discharge simulation using 16 flood events that occurred between 1984 and 2008. The model was found satisfactory to reproduce the runoff and the temporal evolution of floods, even with limited rainfall data. Several antecedent wetness conditions estimators for the catchment were compared with the initial condition of the model. Theses estimators include an antecedent discharge index, an antecedent precipitation index and a continuous daily soil moisture accounting model (SMA, based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. The SMA model performed the best to estimate the initial conditions of the event-based hydrological model (R2 = 0.9. Its daily output has been compared with ASCAT and AMSR-E remote sensing data products, which were both able to reproduce with accuracy the daily simulated soil moisture dynamics at the catchment scale. This same approach could be implemented in other catchments of this region for operational purposes. The results of this study suggest that remote sensing data are potentially useful to estimate the soil moisture conditions in the case of ungauged catchments in Northern Africa.

  9. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  10. The application of model with lumped parameters for transient condition analyses of NPP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stankovic, B.; Stevanovic, V.

    1985-01-01

    The transient behaviour of NPP Krsko during the accident of pressurizer spray valve stuck open has been simulated y lumped parameters model of the PWR coolant system components, developed at the faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Belgrade. The elementary volumes which are characterised by the process and state parameters, and by junctions which are characterised by the geometrical and flow parameters are basic structure of physical model. The process parameters obtained by the model RESI, show qualitative agreement with the measured valves, in a degree in which the actions of reactor safety engineered system and emergency core cooling system are adequately modelled; in spite of the elementary physical model structure and only the modelling of thermal process in reactor core and equilibrium conditions of pressurizer and steam generator. The pressurizer pressure and liquid level predicted by the non-equilibrium pressurizer model SOP show good agreement until the HIPS (high pressure pumps) is activated. (author)

  11. Groundwater flow modelling of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions - Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vidstrand, Patrik (TerraSolve AB, Floda (Sweden)); Rhen, Ingvar (SWECO Environment AB, Falun (Sweden)); Zugec, Nada (Bergab, Goeteborg (Sweden))

    2010-12-15

    As a part of the license application for a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at Forsmark, the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) has undertaken a series of groundwater flow modelling studies. These represent time periods with different hydraulic conditions and the simulations carried out contribute to the overall evaluation of the repository design and long-term radiological safety. This report is concerned with the modelling of a repository at the Laxemar-Simpevarp site during periglacial and glacial climate conditions as a comparison to corresponding modelling carried out for Forsmark /Vidstrand et al. 2010/. The groundwater flow modelling study reported here comprises a coupled thermal-hydraulic-chemical (T-H-C) analysis of periods with periglacial and glacial climate conditions. The objective of the report is to provide bounding hydrogeological estimates at different stages during glaciation and deglaciation of a glacial cycle at Laxemar. Three cases with different climate conditions are analysed here: (i) Temperate case, (ii) Glacial case without permafrost, and (iii) Glacial case with permafrost. The glacial periods are transient and encompass approximately 13,000 years. The simulation results comprise pressures, Darcy fluxes, and water salinities, as well as advective transport performance measures obtained by particle tracking such as flow path lengths, travel times and flow-related transport resistances. The modelling is accompanied by a sensitivity study that addresses the impact of the following matters: the direction of the ice sheet advance and the bedrock hydraulic and transport properties

  12. Modelling and analysis of radionuclide dispersion from PWR on abnormal condition in Bojanegara Serang site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sri Kuntjoro

    2010-01-01

    Additional of electrical power especially Nuclear Power Plant will give radiological consequence sto population and environment due to radioactive release in normal and abnormal condition. In consequence the management of nuclear power plant must supply data and strong argumentation to clarify the safety of nuclear power plant to environment. For that purpose it needs to be carried out an analysis of abnormal condition in nuclear power plant and its radiological consequences to the environment. That analysis is done using abnormal condition simulation model postulated on 1000 MWe nuclear power plant.That simulation model is used also to evaluate environmental potential as site capability in supporting the radiological consequences. Radionuclide transport modeling from reactor core to containment uses EMERALD computer code. Other computer codes are Wind rose, PC-COSYMA and Arc View are used to simulate meteorology condition, radionuclide release to population distribution of food production and consumption and distribution of radiation dose received to population around nuclear power plant. Application of that simulation is carried out to NPP candidate site in Bojanegara-Kramatwatu, Serang Banten peninsula. Using source term data, meteorology data, dispersion data and pathways modeling are resulting radionuclide dispersion model and radiation pathway acceptance at the surrounding nuclear power plant site (Bojanegara-Serang peninsula). The result shows that maximum radiation dose received is lower than dose permitted in accordance with regulatory body (BAPETEN). (author)

  13. Modeling variations in the cedi/dollar exchange rate in Ghana: an autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (ARCH) models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Techie Quaicoe, Michael; Twenefour, Frank B K; Baah, Emmanuel M; Nortey, Ezekiel N N

    2015-01-01

    This research article aimed at modeling the variations in the dollar/cedi exchange rate. It examines the applicability of a range of ARCH/GARCH specifications for modeling volatility of the series. The variants considered include the ARMA, GARCH, IGARCH, EGARCH and M-GARCH specifications. The results show that the series was non stationary which resulted from the presence of a unit root in it. The ARMA (1, 1) was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean. From the Box-Ljung test statistics x-squared of 1476.338 with p value 0.00217 for squared returns and 16.918 with 0.0153 p values for squared residuals, the null hypothesis of no ARCH effect was rejected at 5% significance level indicating the presence of an ARCH effect in the series. ARMA (1, 1) + GARCH (1, 1) which has all parameters significant was found to be the most suitable model for the conditional mean with conditional variance, thus showing adequacy in describing the conditional mean with variance of the return series at 5% significant level. A 24 months forecast for the mean actual exchange rates and mean returns from January, 2013 to December, 2014 made also showed that the fitted model is appropriate for the data and a depreciating trend of the cedi against the dollar for forecasted period respectively.

  14. Determination of modeling parameters for power IGBTs under pulsed power conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dale, Gregory E [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Gordon, Jim A [U. OF MISSOURI; Kovaleski, Scott D [U. OF MISSOURI

    2010-01-01

    While the power insulated gate bipolar transistor (IGRT) is used in many applications, it is not well characterized under pulsed power conditions. This makes the IGBT difficult to model for solid state pulsed power applications. The Oziemkiewicz implementation of the Hefner model is utilized to simulate IGBTs in some circuit simulation software packages. However, the seventeen parameters necessary for the Oziemkiewicz implementation must be known for the conditions under which the device will be operating. Using both experimental and simulated data with a least squares curve fitting technique, the parameters necessary to model a given IGBT can be determined. This paper presents two sets of these seventeen parameters that correspond to two different models of power IGBTs. Specifically, these parameters correspond to voltages up to 3.5 kV, currents up to 750 A, and pulse widths up to 10 {micro}s. Additionally, comparisons of the experimental and simulated data will be presented.

  15. Using fuzzy rule-based knowledge model for optimum plating conditions search

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solovjev, D. S.; Solovjeva, I. A.; Litovka, Yu V.; Arzamastsev, A. A.; Glazkov, V. P.; L’vov, A. A.

    2018-03-01

    The paper discusses existing approaches to plating process modeling in order to decrease the distribution thickness of plating surface cover. However, these approaches do not take into account the experience, knowledge, and intuition of the decision-makers when searching the optimal conditions of electroplating technological process. The original approach to optimal conditions search for applying the electroplating coatings, which uses the rule-based model of knowledge and allows one to reduce the uneven product thickness distribution, is proposed. The block diagrams of a conventional control system of a galvanic process as well as the system based on the production model of knowledge are considered. It is shown that the fuzzy production model of knowledge in the control system makes it possible to obtain galvanic coatings of a given thickness unevenness with a high degree of adequacy to the experimental data. The described experimental results confirm the theoretical conclusions.

  16. Climate change impact on shallow groundwater conditions in Hungary: Conclusions from a regional modelling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovács, Attila; Marton, Annamária; Tóth, György; Szöcs, Teodóra

    2016-04-01

    A quantitative methodology has been developed for the calculation of groundwater table based on measured and simulated climate parameters. The aim of the study was to develop a toolset which can be used for the calculation of shallow groundwater conditions for various climate scenarios. This was done with the goal of facilitating the assessment of climate impact and vulnerability of shallow groundwater resources. The simulated groundwater table distributions are representative of groundwater conditions at the regional scale. The introduced methodology is valid for modelling purposes at various scales and thus represents a versatile tool for the assessment of climate vulnerability of shallow groundwater bodies. The calculation modules include the following: 1. A toolset to calculate climate zonation from climate parameter grids, 2. Delineation of recharge zones (Hydrological Response Units, HRUs) based on geology, landuse and slope conditions, 3. Calculation of percolation (recharge) rates using 1D analytical hydrological models, 4. Simulation of the groundwater table using numerical groundwater flow models. The applied methodology provides a quantitative link between climate conditions and shallow groundwater conditions, and thus can be used for assessing climate impacts. The climate data source applied in our calculation comprised interpolated daily climate data of the Central European CARPATCLIM database. Climate zones were determined making use of the Thorntwaite climate zonation scheme. Recharge zones (HRUs) were determined based on surface geology, landuse and slope conditions. The HELP hydrological model was used for the calculation of 1D water balance for hydrological response units. The MODFLOW numerical groundwater modelling code was used for the calculation of the water table. The developed methodology was demonstrated through the simulation of regional groundwater table using spatially averaged climate data and hydrogeological properties for various time

  17. New normative standards of conditional reasoning and the dual-source model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singmann, Henrik; Klauer, Karl Christoph; Over, David

    2014-01-01

    There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning toward Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998) for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer and Kleiter, 2005, 2010) exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer et al., 2010) is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches) and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task.

  18. New Normative Standards of Conditional Reasoning and the Dual-Source Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Henrik eSingmann

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available There has been a major shift in research on human reasoning towards Bayesian and probabilistic approaches, which has been called a new paradigm. The new paradigm sees most everyday and scientific reasoning as taking place in a context of uncertainty, and inference is from uncertain beliefs and not from arbitrary assumptions. In this manuscript we present an empirical test of normative standards in the new paradigm using a novel probabilized conditional reasoning task. Our results indicated that for everyday conditional with at least a weak causal connection between antecedent and consequent only the conditional probability of the consequent given antecedent contributes unique variance to predicting the probability of conditional, but not the probability of the conjunction, nor the probability of the material conditional. Regarding normative accounts of reasoning, we found significant evidence that participants' responses were confidence preserving (i.e., p-valid in the sense of Adams, 1998 for MP inferences, but not for MT inferences. Additionally, only for MP inferences and to a lesser degree for DA inferences did the rate of responses inside the coherence intervals defined by mental probability logic (Pfeifer & Kleiter, 2005, 2010 exceed chance levels. In contrast to the normative accounts, the dual-source model (Klauer, Beller, & Hütter, 2010 is a descriptive model. It posits that participants integrate their background knowledge (i.e., the type of information primary to the normative approaches and their subjective probability that a conclusion is seen as warranted based on its logical form. Model fits showed that the dual-source model, which employed participants' responses to a deductive task with abstract contents to estimate the form-based component, provided as good an account of the data as a model that solely used data from the probabilized conditional reasoning task.

  19. Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall-runoff modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Tramblay, Yves; Bouvier, Christophe; Martin, C.; Didon-Lescot, J. F.; Todorovik, D.; Domergue, J. M.

    2010-01-01

    Flash floods are the most destructive natural hazards that occur in the Mediterranean region. Rainfall-runoff models can be very useful for flash flood forecasting and prediction. Event-based models are very popular for operational purposes, but there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the initial moisture conditions estimation prior to a flood event. This paper aims to compare several soil moisture indicators: local Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements of soil moisture,...

  20. Theoretical Background for the Decision-Making Process Modelling under Controlled Intervention Conditions

    OpenAIRE

    Bakanauskienė Irena; Baronienė Laura

    2017-01-01

    This article is intended to theoretically justify the decision-making process model for the cases, when active participation of investing entities in controlling the activities of an organisation and their results is noticeable. Based on scientific literature analysis, a concept of controlled conditions is formulated, and using a rational approach to the decision-making process, a model of the 11-steps decision-making process under controlled intervention is presented. Also, there have been u...

  1. Conditions for Model Matching of Switched Asynchronous Sequential Machines with Output Feedback

    OpenAIRE

    Jung–Min Yang

    2016-01-01

    Solvability of the model matching problem for input/output switched asynchronous sequential machines is discussed in this paper. The control objective is to determine the existence condition and design algorithm for a corrective controller that can match the stable-state behavior of the closed-loop system to that of a reference model. Switching operations and correction procedures are incorporated using output feedback so that the controlled switched machine can show the ...

  2. Modeling of Possible Conditions for Origin of First Organic Forms in hot Mineral Water

    OpenAIRE

    Ignat Ignatov; Oleg Mosin

    2014-01-01

    The composition of water, its temperature and pH value was analyzed in experiments with modelling of primary hydrosphere and possible conditions for origin of first organic forms in hot mineral water. For this aim the authors performed experiments with hot mineral and seawater from Bulgaria by IR-spectrometry (DNES-method). As model systems were used cactus juice of Echinopsis pachanoi and Mediterranean jellyfish Cotylorhiza tuberculata. It was considered the reactions of condensation and deh...

  3. A Conditionally Beta Distributed Time-Series Model With Application to Monthly US Corporate Default Rates

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Thor Pajhede

    2017-01-01

    We consider an observation driven, conditionally Beta distributed model for variables restricted to the unit interval. The model includes both explanatory variables and autoregressive dependence in the mean and precision parameters using the mean-precision parametrization of the beta distribution...... the monthly default rate. (3) There is evidence for volatility clustering beyond what is accounted for by the inherent mean-precision relationship of the Beta distribution in the default rate data....

  4. Conditional Tests of Factor Augmented Asset Pricing Models with Human Capital and Housing: Some New Results

    OpenAIRE

    Olga Klinkowska

    2009-01-01

    In this paper I develop the asset pricing model in which the wealth portfolio is enriched with human capital and housing capital. These two types of capital account for a significant portion of the total wealth. Additionally I introduce dynamics into the model and represent conditioning information by common factors estimated with dynamic factor methodology. In this way I can use more accurate representative of the unobservable information set of the investors. Obtained results prove that ind...

  5. A mathematical model for localized corrosion in steam generator crevices under heat transfer conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelhardt, G.; Urquidi-Macdonald, M.; Sikora, J.; Macdonald, D.D.

    1995-01-01

    A predictive and self-consistent mathematical model has been developed to describe the localized corrosion in steam generators. The model recognizes that the internal and external environment are coupled by the need to conserve charge in the system. Thus, solution of Laplace's equation for the external environment (outside the crevice) provides the boundary condition for the electric potential at the crevice mouth, which is needed for solving the system of mass transfer equations for the internal environment (inside the crevice). Mass transfer by diffusion, ion migration, and convection was considered. Heat and momentum transfer equations are solved simultaneously, with the mass balance equation for each species and the condition of electroneutrality inside the cavity being considered. The model takes into account the porosity and tortuosity in the corrosion product deposit in the crevice. The homogeneous chemical reactions (hydrolysis of the products of the anodic reaction and the autoprotolysis of water) are included in the model. The model, in this preliminary form predicts the solution chemistry, potential drop, and temperature distribution inside the crevice. An order of magnitude estimate of the crevice corrosion rate also obtained. At this point, the model predicts only the steady state solution, but it is recognized that a steady state may not exist under normal conditions

  6. A hybrid prognostic model for multistep ahead prediction of machine condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roulias, D.; Loutas, T. H.; Kostopoulos, V.

    2012-05-01

    Prognostics are the future trend in condition based maintenance. In the current framework a data driven prognostic model is developed. The typical procedure of developing such a model comprises a) the selection of features which correlate well with the gradual degradation of the machine and b) the training of a mathematical tool. In this work the data are taken from a laboratory scale single stage gearbox under multi-sensor monitoring. Tests monitoring the condition of the gear pair from healthy state until total brake down following several days of continuous operation were conducted. After basic pre-processing of the derived data, an indicator that correlated well with the gearbox condition was obtained. Consecutively the time series is split in few distinguishable time regions via an intelligent data clustering scheme. Each operating region is modelled with a feed-forward artificial neural network (FFANN) scheme. The performance of the proposed model is tested by applying the system to predict the machine degradation level on unseen data. The results show the plausibility and effectiveness of the model in following the trend of the timeseries even in the case that a sudden change occurs. Moreover the model shows ability to generalise for application in similar mechanical assets.

  7. Development of a butterfly check valve model under natural circulation conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rao, Yuxian; Yu, Lei; Fu, Shengwei; Zhang, Fan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Bases on Lim’s swing check valve model, a butterfly check valve model was developed. • The method to quantify the friction torque T F in Li’s model was corrected. • The developed model was implemented into the RELAP5 code and verified. - Abstract: A butterfly check valve is widely used to prevent a reverse flow in the pipe lines of a marine nuclear power plant. Under some conditions, the natural circulation conditions in particular, the fluid velocity through the butterfly check valve might become too low to hold the valve disk fully open, thereby the flow resistance of the butterfly check valve varies with the location of the valve disk and as a result the fluid flow is significantly affected by the dynamic motion of the valve disk. Simulation of a pipe line that includes some butterfly check valves, especially under natural circulation conditions, is thus complicated. This paper focuses on the development of a butterfly check valve model to enhance the capability of the thermal–hydraulic system code and the developed model is implemented into the RELAP5 code. Both steady-state calculations and transient calculations were carried out for the primary loop system of a marine nuclear power plant and the calculation results are compared with the experimental data for verification purpose. The simulation results show an agreement with the experimental data

  8. A robust model predictive control strategy for improving the control performance of air-conditioning systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang Gongsheng; Wang Shengwei; Xu Xinhua

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a robust model predictive control strategy for improving the supply air temperature control of air-handling units by dealing with the associated uncertainties and constraints directly. This strategy uses a first-order plus time-delay model with uncertain time-delay and system gain to describe air-conditioning process of an air-handling unit usually operating at various weather conditions. The uncertainties of the time-delay and system gain, which imply the nonlinearities and the variable dynamic characteristics, are formulated using an uncertainty polytope. Based on this uncertainty formulation, an offline LMI-based robust model predictive control algorithm is employed to design a robust controller for air-handling units which can guarantee a good robustness subject to uncertainties and constraints. The proposed robust strategy is evaluated in a dynamic simulation environment of a variable air volume air-conditioning system in various operation conditions by comparing with a conventional PI control strategy. The robustness analysis of both strategies under different weather conditions is also presented.

  9. Co-occurrence of medical conditions: Exposing patterns through probabilistic topic modeling of snomed codes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharya, Moumita; Jurkovitz, Claudine; Shatkay, Hagit

    2018-04-12

    Patients associated with multiple co-occurring health conditions often face aggravated complications and less favorable outcomes. Co-occurring conditions are especially prevalent among individuals suffering from kidney disease, an increasingly widespread condition affecting 13% of the general population in the US. This study aims to identify and characterize patterns of co-occurring medical conditions in patients employing a probabilistic framework. Specifically, we apply topic modeling in a non-traditional way to find associations across SNOMED-CT codes assigned and recorded in the EHRs of >13,000 patients diagnosed with kidney disease. Unlike most prior work on topic modeling, we apply the method to codes rather than to natural language. Moreover, we quantitatively evaluate the topics, assessing their tightness and distinctiveness, and also assess the medical validity of our results. Our experiments show that each topic is succinctly characterized by a few highly probable and unique disease codes, indicating that the topics are tight. Furthermore, inter-topic distance between each pair of topics is typically high, illustrating distinctiveness. Last, most coded conditions grouped together within a topic, are indeed reported to co-occur in the medical literature. Notably, our results uncover a few indirect associations among conditions that have hitherto not been reported as correlated in the medical literature. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  10. Modelling the spatio-temporal distribution of age-1 bay of biscay anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus) at spawning time [Distribución espacio-temporal de la edad 1 de anchoa del golfo de Bizkaia (Engraulis Encrasicolus) en el momento de puesta

    KAUST Repository

    Ibaibarriaga, Leire; Uriarte, André s; Laconcha, Urtzi; Bernal, Miguel C.; Begoñ a Santos, Maria; Chifflet, Marina; Irigoien, Xabier

    2013-01-01

    during the main spawning period based on adult samples from 15 daily egg production method surveys. The proportion of age-1 individuals was modelled using generalized additive models with a binomial distribution and a logit link in relation

  11. General 3D Lumped Thermal Model with Various Boundary Conditions for High Power IGBT Modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2016-01-01

    Accurate thermal dynamics modeling of high power Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT) modules is important information for the reliability analysis and thermal design of power electronic systems. However, the existing thermal models have their limits to correctly predict these complicated...... thermal behaviors in the IGBTs. In this paper, a new three-dimensional (3D) lumped thermal model is proposed, which can easily be characterized from Finite Element Methods (FEM) based simulation and acquire the thermal distribution in critical points. Meanwhile the boundary conditions including...... the cooling system and power losses are modeled in the 3D thermal model, which can be adapted to different real field applications of power electronic converters. The accuracy of the proposed thermal model is verified by experimental results....

  12. Evaluation of gap heat transfer model in ELESTRES for CANDU fuel element under normal operating conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Kang Moon; Ohn, Myung Ryong; Im, Hong Sik; Choi, Jong Hoh; Hwang, Soon Taek

    1995-01-01

    The gap conductance between the fuel and the sheath depends strongly on the gap width and has a significant influence on the amount of initial stored energy. The modified Ross and Stoute gap conductance model in ELESTRES is based on a simplified thermal deformation model for steady-state fuel temperature calculations. A review on a series of experiments reveals that fuel pellets crack, relocate, and are eccentrically positioned within the sheath rather than solid concentric cylinders. In this paper, the two recently-proposed gap conductance models (offset gap model and relocated gap model) are described and are applied to calculate the fuel-sheath gap conductances under experimental conditions and normal operating conditions in CANDU reactors. The good agreement between the experimentally-inferred and calculated gap conductance values demonstrates that the modified Ross and Stoute model was implemented correctly in ELESTRES. The predictions of the modified Ross and Stoute model provide conservative values for gap heat transfer and fuel surface temperature compared to the offset gap and relocated gap models for a limiting power envelope. 13 figs., 3 tabs., 16 refs. (Author)

  13. Modeling validation and control analysis for controlled temperature and humidity of air conditioning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jing-Nang; Lin, Tsung-Min; Chen, Chien-Chih

    2014-01-01

    This study constructs an energy based model of thermal system for controlled temperature and humidity air conditioning system, and introduces the influence of the mass flow rate, heater and humidifier for proposed control criteria to achieve the controlled temperature and humidity of air conditioning system. Then, the reliability of proposed thermal system model is established by both MATLAB dynamic simulation and the literature validation. Finally, the PID control strategy is applied for controlling the air mass flow rate, humidifying capacity, and heating, capacity. The simulation results show that the temperature and humidity are stable at 541 sec, the disturbance of temperature is only 0.14 °C, 0006 kg(w)/kg(da) in steady-state error of humidity ratio, and the error rate is only 7.5%. The results prove that the proposed system is an effective controlled temperature and humidity of an air conditioning system.

  14. A method for aggregating external operating conditions in multi-generation system optimization models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lythcke-Jørgensen, Christoffer Ernst; Münster, Marie; Ensinas, Adriano Viana

    2016-01-01

    This paper presents a novel, simple method for reducing external operating condition datasets to be used in multi-generation system optimization models. The method, called the Characteristic Operating Pattern (CHOP) method, is a visually-based aggregation method that clusters reference data based...... on parameter values rather than time of occurrence, thereby preserving important information on short-term relations between the relevant operating parameters. This is opposed to commonly used methods where data are averaged over chronological periods (months or years), and extreme conditions are hidden...... in the averaged values. The CHOP method is tested in a case study where the operation of a fictive Danish combined heat and power plant is optimized over a historical 5-year period. The optimization model is solved using the full external operating condition dataset, a reduced dataset obtained using the CHOP...

  15. 'Duality twisted'boundary conditions in n-state Potts Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schuetz, G.

    1992-11-01

    We discuss a new class of toroidal boundary conditions for one-dimensional quantum Hamiltonian with S n symmetry which are related to two-dimensional n-state Potts models in the extreme anisotropic Hamiltonian limit. At their self-dual point (a point were a second-order phase transition occurs for n=2,3,4) the duality transformation is shown to be an additional symmetry giving rise to a new class of 'duality twisted' toroidal boundary conditions. This corresponding Hamiltonians are given in terms of generators of the periodic Temprely-Lieb algebra with an odd number of generators. We discuss as an example the critical Ising model. Here the complete spectrum for the new boundary conditions can be obtained from a projection mechanism in the spin-1/2 XXZ Heisenberg chain. (author)

  16. Modeling Validation and Control Analysis for Controlled Temperature and Humidity of Air Conditioning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing-Nang Lee

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study constructs an energy based model of thermal system for controlled temperature and humidity air conditioning system, and introduces the influence of the mass flow rate, heater and humidifier for proposed control criteria to achieve the controlled temperature and humidity of air conditioning system. Then, the reliability of proposed thermal system model is established by both MATLAB dynamic simulation and the literature validation. Finally, the PID control strategy is applied for controlling the air mass flow rate, humidifying capacity, and heating, capacity. The simulation results show that the temperature and humidity are stable at 541 sec, the disturbance of temperature is only 0.14°C, 0006 kgw/kgda in steady-state error of humidity ratio, and the error rate is only 7.5%. The results prove that the proposed system is an effective controlled temperature and humidity of an air conditioning system.

  17. Comparing the reported burn conditions for different severity burns in porcine models: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Christine J; Cuttle, Leila

    2017-12-01

    There are many porcine burn models that create burns using different materials (e.g. metal, water) and different burn conditions (e.g. temperature and duration of exposure). This review aims to determine whether a pooled analysis of these studies can provide insight into the burn materials and conditions required to create burns of a specific severity. A systematic review of 42 porcine burn studies describing the depth of burn injury with histological evaluation is presented. Inclusion criteria included thermal burns, burns created with a novel method or material, histological evaluation within 7 days post-burn and method for depth of injury assessment specified. Conditions causing deep dermal scald burns compared to contact burns of equivalent severity were disparate, with lower temperatures and shorter durations reported for scald burns (83°C for 14 seconds) compared to contact burns (111°C for 23 seconds). A valuable archive of the different mechanisms and materials used for porcine burn models is presented to aid design and optimisation of future models. Significantly, this review demonstrates the effect of the mechanism of injury on burn severity and that caution is recommended when burn conditions established by porcine contact burn models are used by regulators to guide scald burn prevention strategies. © 2017 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  18. Orthogonality-condition model for bound states with a separable expansion of the potential

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pal, K.F.

    1984-01-01

    A very efficient solution of the equation of Saito's orthogonality-condition model (OCM) is reported for bound states by means of a separable expansion of the potential (PSE method). Some simplifications of the published formulae of the PSE method is derived, which facilitate its application to the OCM and may be useful in solving the Schroedinger equation as well. (author)

  19. Using time-dependent models to investigate body condition and growth rate of the giant gartersnake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coates, P.S.; Wylie, G.D.; Halstead, B.J.; Casazza, Michael L.

    2009-01-01

    Identifying links between phenotypic attributes and fitness is a primary goal of reproductive ecology. Differences in within-year patterns of body condition between sexes of gartersnakes in relation to reproduction and growth are not fully understood. We conducted an 11-year field study of body condition and growth rate of the giant gartersnake Thamnophis gigas across 13 study areas in the Central Valley of California, USA. We developed a priori mixed effects models of body condition index (BCI), which included covariates of time, sex and snout-vent length and reported the best-approximating models using an information theoretic approach. Also, we developed models of growth rate index (GRI) using covariates of sex and periods based on reproductive behavior. The largest difference in BCI between sexes, as predicted by a non-linear (cubic) time model, occurred during the mating period when female body condition (0.014??0.001 se) was substantially greater than males (-0.027??0.002 se). Males likely allocated energy to search for mates, while females likely stored energy for embryonic development. We also provided evidence that males use more body energy reserves than females during hibernation, perhaps because of different body temperatures between sexes. We found GRI of male snakes was substantially lower during the mating period than during a non-mating period, which indicated that a trade-off existed between searching for mates and growth. These findings contribute to our understanding of snake ecology in a Mediterranean climate. ?? 2009 The Zoological Society of London.

  20. 77 FR 58970 - Special Conditions: Embraer S.A. Model EMB-550 Airplanes, Sudden Engine Stoppage

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-25

    ... primary structure is metal with composite empennage and control surfaces. The Model EMB-550 airplane is...: Cindy Ashforth, FAA, International Branch, ANM-116, Transport Airplane Directorate, Aircraft... conditions numbers 3 and 4, below) could allow some deformation in the engine-supporting structure (ultimate...

  1. A Comparison of Joint Model and Fully Conditional Specification Imputation for Multilevel Missing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistler, Stephen A.; Enders, Craig K.

    2017-01-01

    Multiple imputation methods can generally be divided into two broad frameworks: joint model (JM) imputation and fully conditional specification (FCS) imputation. JM draws missing values simultaneously for all incomplete variables using a multivariate distribution, whereas FCS imputes variables one at a time from a series of univariate conditional…

  2. Effective Strategy Formation Models for Inventory Management under the Conditions of Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kosorukov, Oleg Anatolyevich; Sviridova, Olga Alexandrovna

    2015-01-01

    The article deals with the problem of modeling the commodity flows management of a trading company under the conditions of uncertain demand and long supply. The Author presents an analysis of modifications of diversified inventory management system with random demand, for which one can find the optimal inventory control strategies, including those…

  3. Modelling the Cost Performance of a Given Logistics Network Operating Under Regular and Irregular Conditions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Janic, M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper develops an analytical model for the assessment of the cost performance of a given logistics network operating under regular and irregular (disruptive) conditions. In addition, the paper aims to carry out a sensitivity analysis of this cost with respect to changes of the most influencing

  4. A simplified parsimonious higher order multivariate Markov chain model with new convergence condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao; Yang, Chuan-sheng

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, we present a simplified parsimonious higher-order multivariate Markov chain model with new convergence condition. (TPHOMMCM-NCC). Moreover, estimation method of the parameters in TPHOMMCM-NCC is give. Numerical experiments illustrate the effectiveness of TPHOMMCM-NCC.

  5. Field scale heterogeneity of redox conditions in till-upscaling to a catchment nitrate model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, J.R.; Erntsen, V.; Refsgaard, J.C.

    2008-01-01

    Point scale studies in different settings of glacial geology show a large local variation of redox conditions. There is a need to develop an upscaling methodology for catchment scale models. This paper describes a study of field-scale heterogeneity of redox-interfaces in a till aquitard within an...

  6. Physically-consistent wall boundary conditions for the k-ω turbulence model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fuhrman, David R.; Dixen, Martin; Jacobsen, Niels Gjøl

    2010-01-01

    A model solving Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, coupled with k-v turbulence closure, is used to simulate steady channel flow on both hydraulically smooth and rough beds. Novel experimental data are used as model validation, with k measured directly from all three components of the fluc......A model solving Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations, coupled with k-v turbulence closure, is used to simulate steady channel flow on both hydraulically smooth and rough beds. Novel experimental data are used as model validation, with k measured directly from all three components...... of the fluctuating velocity signal. Both conventional k = 0 and dk/dy = 0 wall boundary conditions are considered. Results indicate that either condition can provide accurate solutions, for the bulk of the flow, over both smooth and rough beds. It is argued that the zero-gradient condition is more consistent...... with the near wall physics, however, as it allows direct integration through a viscous sublayer near smooth walls, while avoiding a viscous sublayer near rough walls. This is in contrast to the conventional k = 0 wall boundary condition, which forces resolution of a viscous sublayer in all circumstances...

  7. Evaluating the performance of ENVI-met model in diurnal cycles for different meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acero, Juan A.; Arrizabalaga, Jon

    2018-01-01

    Urban areas are known to modify meteorological variables producing important differences in small spatial scales (i.e. microscale). These affect human thermal comfort conditions and the dispersion of pollutants, especially those emitted inside the urban area, which finally influence quality of life and the use of public open spaces. In this study, the diurnal evolution of meteorological variables measured in four urban spaces is compared with the results provided by ENVI-met (v 4.0). Measurements were carried out during 3 days with different meteorological conditions in Bilbao in the north of the Iberian Peninsula. The evaluation of the model accuracy (i.e. the degree to which modelled values approach measured values) was carried out with several quantitative difference metrics. The results for air temperature and humidity show a good agreement of measured and modelled values independently of the regional meteorological conditions. However, in the case of mean radiant temperature and wind speed, relevant differences are encountered highlighting the limitation of the model to estimate these meteorological variables precisely during diurnal cycles, in the considered evaluation conditions (sites and weather).

  8. A Model-Free Diagnostic for Single-Peakedness of Item Responses Using Ordered Conditional Means

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polak, Marike; De Rooij, Mark; Heiser, Willem J.

    2012-01-01

    In this article we propose a model-free diagnostic for single-peakedness (unimodality) of item responses. Presuming a unidimensional unfolding scale and a given item ordering, we approximate item response functions of all items based on ordered conditional means (OCM). The proposed OCM methodology is based on Thurstone & Chave's (1929) "criterion…

  9. Multiscale Modeling of Poly(lactic acid) Production: From Reaction Conditions to Rheology of Polymer Melt

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zubov, Alexandr; Sin, Gürkan

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Poly(L-lactic acid) (PLLA) is a fully biodegradable bioplastic with promising market potential. The paper deals with systematic development and analysis of the modeling framework allowing direct mapping between PLLA production process conditions and rheological properties of the polymer ...

  10. A Model of Amygdala-Hippocampal-Prefrontal Interaction in Fear Conditioning and Extinction in Animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moustafa, Ahmed A.; Gilbertson, Mark W.; Orr, Scott P.; Herzallah, Mohammad M.; Servatius, Richard J.; Myers, Catherine E.

    2013-01-01

    Empirical research has shown that the amygdala, hippocampus, and ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) are involved in fear conditioning. However, the functional contribution of each brain area and the nature of their interactions are not clearly understood. Here, we extend existing neural network models of the functional roles of the hippocampus…

  11. NEARSOL - a simple program to model actinide speciation and solubility under waste disposal conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leach, S.J.; Pryke, D.C.

    1986-05-01

    A simple program, NearSol, has been written in Fortran 77 on the Harwell Central Computer to model the aqueous speciation and solubility of actinides under near-field conditions for disposal using a simple thermodynamic approach. The methodology and running of the program are described together with a worked example. (author)

  12. Smart City Research : Contextual Conditions, Governance Models, and Public Value Assessment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meijer, Albert J.; Gil-Garcia, J. Ramon; Bolívar, Manuel Pedro Rodríguez

    2016-01-01

    There are three issues that are crucial to advancing our academic understanding of smart cities: (1) contextual conditions, (2) governance models, and (3) the assessment of public value. A brief review of recent literature and the analysis of the included papers provide support for the assumption

  13. Numerical model for mapping of complex hydrogeological conditions: the Chmielnik area (South Poland) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buszta, Kamila; Szklarczyk, Tadeusz; Malina, Grzegorz

    2017-04-01

    Detailed analysis of hydrogeological conditions at a study area is the basis for characterising adjacent groundwater circulation systems. It is also an essential element during executing hydrogeological documentations. The goal of this work was to reconstruct on a numerical model natural groundwater circulation systems of the studied area located within the municipality of Chmielnik in the region of Kielce (South Poland). The area is characterized by a complex geological structure, which along with the existing hydrographic network, makes the scheme of groundwater circulation complicated and difficult to map on a numerical model. The studied area is situated at the border of three geological units: on the North - the extended portion of the Palaeozoic Swietokrzyskie Mountains (mainly Devonian and Permian), in the center - the S-W part of the Mesozoic Margin of the Swietokrzyskie Mountains, and on the South - a marginal zone of the Carpathian Foredeep. The whole area belongs to the Vistula river basin, and it includes catchments of its left tributaries: the Nida and Czarna Staszowska rivers. Based on the collected field and archival hydrogeological, hydrological and sozological data a conceptual model was built, under which a numerical model of groundwater flow was developed using the specialized software - Visual MODFLOW. The numerical model maps the five-layer groundwater circulation system in conjunction with surface watercourses. Such division reflects appropriately the variability of hydrogeological parameters within the geological structures. Two principal and exploited aquifers comprise: a fractured-porous Neogene and fractured Upper Jurassic formations. The external model borders are based primarily on surface watercourses and locally on watersheds. The modelled area of 130 km2 was divided into square grids of 50 m. The model consists of 275 rows and 277 columns. Each of five layers was simulated with the same number of active blocks. In the construction of

  14. Significance of settling model structures and parameter subsets in modelling WWTPs under wet-weather flow and filamentous bulking conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramin, Elham; Sin, Gürkan; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    Current research focuses on predicting and mitigating the impacts of high hydraulic loadings on centralized wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) under wet-weather conditions. The maximum permissible inflow to WWTPs depends not only on the settleability of activated sludge in secondary settling tanks...... (SSTs) but also on the hydraulic behaviour of SSTs. The present study investigates the impacts of ideal and non-ideal flow (dry and wet weather) and settling (good settling and bulking) boundary conditions on the sensitivity of WWTP model outputs to uncertainties intrinsic to the one-dimensional (1-D...... of settling parameters to the total variance of the key WWTP process outputs significantly depends on the influent flow and settling conditions. The magnitude of the impact is found to vary, depending on which type of 1-D SST model is used. Therefore, we identify and recommend potential parameter subsets...

  15. Parameterised Model of 2D Combustor Exit Flow Conditions for High-Pressure Turbine Simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marius Schneider

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available An algorithm is presented generating a complete set of inlet boundary conditions for Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes computational fluid dynamics (RANS CFD of high-pressure turbines to investigate their interaction with lean and rich burn combustors. The method shall contribute to understanding the sensitivities of turbine aerothermal performance in a systematic approach. The boundary conditions are based on a set of input parameters controlling velocity, temperature, and turbulence fields. All other quantities are derived from operating conditions and additional modelling assumptions. The algorithm is coupled with a CFD solver by applying the generated profiles as inlet boundary conditions. The successive steps to derive consistent flow profiles are described and results are validated against flow fields extracted from combustor CFD.

  16. Frozen with fear: Conditioned suppression in a virtual reality model of human anxiety.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allcoat, Devon; Greville, W James; Newton, Philip M; Dymond, Simon

    2015-09-01

    Freezing-like topographies of behavior are elicited in conditioned suppression tasks whereby appetitive behavior is reduced by presentations of an aversively conditioned threat cue relative to a safety cue. Conditioned suppression of operant behavior by a Pavlovian threat cue is an established laboratory model of quantifying the response impairment seen in anxiety disorders. Little is known however about how different response topographies indicative of conditioned suppression are elicited in humans. Here, we refined a novel virtual reality (VR) paradigm in which presentations of a threat cue of unpredictable duration occurred while participants performed an operant response of shooting and destroying boxes searching for hidden gold. The VR paradigm detected significant suppression of response topographies (shots, hits and breaks) for a Pavlovian threat cue relative to a safety cue and novel cue presentations. Implications of the present findings for translational research on appetitive and aversive conflict in anxiety disorders are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. A simple heat transfer model for a heat flux plate under transient conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryan, L.; Dale, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Heat flux plates are used for measuring rates of heat transfer through surfaces under steady state and transient conditions. Their usual construction is to have a resistive layer bounded by thermopiles and an exterior layer for protection. If properly designed and constructed a linear relationship between the thermopile generated voltage and heat flux results and calibration under steady state conditions is straight forward. Under transient conditions however the voltage output from a heat flux plate cannot instantaneously follow the heat flux because of the thermal capacitance of the plate and the resulting time lag. In order to properly interpret the output of a heat flux plate used under transient conditions a simple heat transfer model was constructed and tested. (author)

  18. Model development and optimization of operating conditions to maximize PEMFC performance by response surface methodology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kanani, Homayoon; Shams, Mehrzad; Hasheminasab, Mohammadreza; Bozorgnezhad, Ali

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The optimization of the operating parameters in a serpentine PEMFC is done using RSM. • The RSM model can predict the cell power over the wide range of operating conditions. • St-An, St-Ca and RH-Ca have an optimum value to obtain the best performance. • The interactions of the operating conditions affect the output power significantly. • The cathode and anode stoichiometry are the most effective parameters on the power. - Abstract: Optimization of operating conditions to obtain maximum power in PEMFCs could have a significant role to reduce the costs of this emerging technology. In the present experimental study, a single serpentine PEMFC is used to investigate the effects of operating conditions on the electrical power production of the cell. Four significant parameters including cathode stoichiometry, anode stoichiometry, gases inlet temperature, and cathode relative humidity are studied using Design of Experiment (DOE) to obtain an optimal power. Central composite second order Response Surface Methodology (RSM) is used to model the relationship between goal function (power) and considered input parameters (operating conditions). Using this statistical–mathematical method leads to obtain a second-order equation for the cell power. This model considers interactions and quadratic effects of different operating conditions and predicts the maximum or minimum power production over the entire working range of the parameters. In this range, high stoichiometry of cathode and low stoichiometry of anode results in the minimum cell power and contrary the medium range of fuel and oxidant stoichiometry leads to the maximum power. Results show that there is an optimum value for the anode stoichiometry, cathode stoichiometry and relative humidity to reach the best performance. The predictions of the model are evaluated by experimental tests and they are in a good agreement for different ranges of the parameters

  19. Model development to evaluate evolution of redox conditions in the near field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiba, Tamotsu; Miki, Takahito; Inagaki, Manabu; Sasamoto, Hiroshi; Yui, Mikazu

    1999-02-01

    Deep underground is thought to be a potential place for high level radioactive waste repository. It is believed that the chemical condition of deep groundwater is generally anoxic and reducing. However, during construction and operation phase of repository, oxygen will diffuse some distance into the surrounding rock mass, and diffused oxygen may remain in the surrounding rock mass even after repository closure. In such a case, the transitional redox condition around the drift is not preferable in view point of safety assessment for HLW disposal. Hence, it is very important to evaluate evolution of redox conditions in the near field. This report describes the status of model development to evaluate evolution of redox conditions in the near field. We use the commercial solver to equate the mathematical equations which mean evolution of redox condition in the near field. The target area modeled in this report are near field rock mass and engineered barrier (buffer). In case of near field rock mass, we consider the following two geological media: (1) porous media for sedimentary rock, (2) fractured media for crystalline rock. In case of the engineered barrier, we regard the buffer as porous media. We simulate the behavior of dissolved oxygen and Fe 2+ in groundwater during evolution of redox condition in the near field rock mass and the buffer. In case of the porous media, we consider diffusion of chemical species as dominant transport mechanism. On the other hand, in case of the fractured media, we consider diffusion of chemical species in rock matrix and advection of that (only dissolved oxygen considered in this model) in fracture as transport mechanism. We also use the rate law of iron oxidation reaction and dissolution of Fe-bearing minerals in this model besides. (author)

  20. Coupled Lagrangian impingement spray model for doublet impinging injectors under liquid rocket engine operating conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang WEI

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available To predict the effect of the liquid rocket engine combustion chamber conditions on the impingement spray, the conventional uncoupled spray model for impinging injectors is extended by considering the coupling of the jet impingement process and the ambient gas field. The new coupled model consists of the plain-orifice sub-model, the jet-jet impingement sub-model and the droplet collision sub-model. The parameters of the child droplet are determined with the jet-jet impingement sub-model using correlations about the liquid jet parameters and the chamber conditions. The overall model is benchmarked under various impingement angles, jet momentum and off-center ratios. Agreement with the published experimental data validates the ability of the model to predict the key spray characteristics, such as the mass flux and mixture ratio distributions in quiescent air. Besides, impinging sprays under changing ambient pressure and non-uniform gas flow are investigated to explore the effect of liquid rocket engine chamber conditions. First, a transient impingement spray during engine start-up phase is simulated with prescribed pressure profile. The minimum average droplet diameter is achieved when the orifices work in cavitation state, and is about 30% smaller than the steady single phase state. Second, the effect of non-uniform gas flow produces off-center impingement and the rotated spray fan by 38°. The proposed model suggests more reasonable impingement spray characteristics than the uncoupled one and can be used as the first step in the complex simulation of coupling impingement spray and combustion in liquid rocket engines.

  1. Coupled Lagrangian impingement spray model for doublet impinging injectors under liquid rocket engine operating conditions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Qiang WEI; Guozhu LIANG

    2017-01-01

    To predict the effect of the liquid rocket engine combustion chamber conditions on the impingement spray,the conventional uncoupled spray model for impinging injectors is extended by considering the couplingof the jet impingement process and the ambient gas field.The new coupled model consists of the plain-orifice sub-model,the jet-jet impingement sub-model and the droplet collision sub-model.The parameters of the child droplet are determined with the jet-jet impingement sub-model using correlations about the liquid jet parameters and the chamber conditions.The overall model is benchmarked under various impingement angles,jet momentum and offcenter ratios.Agreement with the published experimental data validates the ability of the model to predict the key spray characteristics,such as the mass flux and mixture ratio distributions in quiescent air.Besides,impinging sprays under changing ambient pressure and non-uniform gas flow are investigated to explore the effect of liquid rocket engine chamber conditions.First,a transient impingement spray during engine start-up phase is simulated with prescribed pressure profile.The minimum average droplet diameter is achieved when the orifices work in cavitation state,and is about 30% smaller than the steady single phase state.Second,the effect of non-uniform gas flow produces off-center impingement and the rotated spray fan by 38°.The proposed model suggests more reasonable impingement spray characteristics than the uncoupled one and can be used as the first step in the complex simulation of coupling impingement spray and combustion in liquid rocket engines.

  2. Modelling of motorway tunnels scenario for utilization of conditionally released radioactive materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hrncir, Tomas; Panik, Michal; Necas, Vladimir

    2011-01-01

    Considerable amount of solid radioactive waste with radioactivity slightly above the limits for unconditional release is generated during the decommissioning of the nuclear installations. Conditional release deals with precisely this type of materials with activity slightly above limits in order to save considerable financial resources, which would be otherwise spend on treatment, conditioning and disposal of these materials at appropriate repository. The basic principles of conditional release as well as possibilities of reusing of the conditionally released materials are described. One of these possibilities of the reusing was chosen and application proposal of conditional release of metal waste - steel reinforcement in the concrete, which could be used for construction of motorway tunnels, was created. The computer code Visiplan 4.0 3D ALARA planning tool software was used for the calculation of effective individual dose for personnel constructing the tunnel and for critical group related to scenario. Particular models for individual scenarios of conditional release have been developed within the scope of this software code. The aim of the paper is to determine a level of the radioactivity of conditional released materials to avoid over exceeding the value of annual individual effective dose 10μSv/year established by international recommendations. (author)

  3. Should tsunami models use a nonzero initial condition for horizontal velocity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava, G.; Lotto, G. C.; Dunham, E. M.

    2017-12-01

    Tsunami propagation in the open ocean is most commonly modeled by solving the shallow water wave equations. These equations require two initial conditions: one on sea surface height and another on depth-averaged horizontal particle velocity or, equivalently, horizontal momentum. While most modelers assume that initial velocity is zero, Y.T. Song and collaborators have argued for nonzero initial velocity, claiming that horizontal displacement of a sloping seafloor imparts significant horizontal momentum to the ocean. They show examples in which this effect increases the resulting tsunami height by a factor of two or more relative to models in which initial velocity is zero. We test this claim with a "full-physics" integrated dynamic rupture and tsunami model that couples the elastic response of the Earth to the linearized acoustic-gravitational response of a compressible ocean with gravity; the model self-consistently accounts for seismic waves in the solid Earth, acoustic waves in the ocean, and tsunamis (with dispersion at short wavelengths). We run several full-physics simulations of subduction zone megathrust ruptures and tsunamis in geometries with a sloping seafloor, using both idealized structures and a more realistic Tohoku structure. Substantial horizontal momentum is imparted to the ocean, but almost all momentum is carried away in the form of ocean acoustic waves. We compare tsunami propagation in each full-physics simulation to that predicted by an equivalent shallow water wave simulation with varying assumptions regarding initial conditions. We find that the initial horizontal velocity conditions proposed by Song and collaborators consistently overestimate the tsunami amplitude and predict an inconsistent wave profile. Finally, we determine tsunami initial conditions that are rigorously consistent with our full-physics simulations by isolating the tsunami waves (from ocean acoustic and seismic waves) at some final time, and backpropagating the tsunami

  4. Conditioning 3D object-based models to dense well data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yimin C.; Pyrcz, Michael J.; Catuneanu, Octavian; Boisvert, Jeff B.

    2018-06-01

    Object-based stochastic simulation models are used to generate categorical variable models with a realistic representation of complicated reservoir heterogeneity. A limitation of object-based modeling is the difficulty of conditioning to dense data. One method to achieve data conditioning is to apply optimization techniques. Optimization algorithms can utilize an objective function measuring the conditioning level of each object while also considering the geological realism of the object. Here, an objective function is optimized with implicit filtering which considers constraints on object parameters. Thousands of objects conditioned to data are generated and stored in a database. A set of objects are selected with linear integer programming to generate the final realization and honor all well data, proportions and other desirable geological features. Although any parameterizable object can be considered, objects from fluvial reservoirs are used to illustrate the ability to simultaneously condition multiple types of geologic features. Channels, levees, crevasse splays and oxbow lakes are parameterized based on location, path, orientation and profile shapes. Functions mimicking natural river sinuosity are used for the centerline model. Channel stacking pattern constraints are also included to enhance the geological realism of object interactions. Spatial layout correlations between different types of objects are modeled. Three case studies demonstrate the flexibility of the proposed optimization-simulation method. These examples include multiple channels with high sinuosity, as well as fragmented channels affected by limited preservation. In all cases the proposed method reproduces input parameters for the object geometries and matches the dense well constraints. The proposed methodology expands the applicability of object-based simulation to complex and heterogeneous geological environments with dense sampling.

  5. Improvement of the RELAP5 subcooled boiling model for low pressure conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koncar, B.; Mavko, B.

    2000-01-01

    The RELAP5/MOD3.2.2 Gamma code was assessed against low pressure subcooled boiling experiments performed by Zeitoun and Shoukri [1] in a vertical annulus. The predictions of subcooled boiling bubbly flow showed that the present version of the RELAP5 code underestimates the void fraction growth along the tube. To improve the void fraction prediction at low pressure conditions a set of model changes is proposed, which includes modifications of bubbly-slug transition criterion, drift-flux model, interphase heat transfer coefficient and wall evaporation modeling. The improved experiment predictions with the modified RELAP5 code are presented and analysed. (author)

  6. Lithium-ion battery dynamic model for wide range of operating conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stroe, Ana-Irina; Stroe, Daniel-Ioan; Swierczynski, Maciej Jozef

    2017-01-01

    In order to analyze the dynamic behavior of a Lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery and to determine their suitability for various applications, battery models are needed. An equivalent electrical circuit model is the most common way of representing the behavior of a Li-ion battery. There are different...... characterization tests performed for a wide range of operating conditions (temperature, load current and state-of-charge) on a commercial available 13Ah high-power lithium titanate oxide battery cell. The obtained results were used to parametrize the proposed dynamic model of the battery cell. To assess...

  7. EARLY DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: PINNING DOWN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE NICE MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, Michael E.

    2010-01-01

    In the recent years, the 'Nice' model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the solar system by evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration. Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial configuration from which the solar system started out. Recent work has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. In this paper, we use analytical arguments, as well as self-consistent numerical N-body simulations to identify fully resonant initial conditions, whose dynamical evolution is characterized by an eccentric phase of the ice giants, as well as planetary scattering. We find a total of eight such initial conditions. Four of these primordial states are compatible with the canonical 'Nice' model, while the others imply slightly different evolutions. The results presented here should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.

  8. Communication: modeling charge-sign asymmetric solvation free energies with nonlinear boundary conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P; Knepley, Matthew G

    2014-10-07

    We show that charge-sign-dependent asymmetric hydration can be modeled accurately using linear Poisson theory after replacing the standard electric-displacement boundary condition with a simple nonlinear boundary condition. Using a single multiplicative scaling factor to determine atomic radii from molecular dynamics Lennard-Jones parameters, the new model accurately reproduces MD free-energy calculations of hydration asymmetries for: (i) monatomic ions, (ii) titratable amino acids in both their protonated and unprotonated states, and (iii) the Mobley "bracelet" and "rod" test problems [D. L. Mobley, A. E. Barber II, C. J. Fennell, and K. A. Dill, "Charge asymmetries in hydration of polar solutes," J. Phys. Chem. B 112, 2405-2414 (2008)]. Remarkably, the model also justifies the use of linear response expressions for charging free energies. Our boundary-element method implementation demonstrates the ease with which other continuum-electrostatic solvers can be extended to include asymmetry.

  9. Communication: Modeling charge-sign asymmetric solvation free energies with nonlinear boundary conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Knepley, Matthew G.

    2014-01-01

    We show that charge-sign-dependent asymmetric hydration can be modeled accurately using linear Poisson theory after replacing the standard electric-displacement boundary condition with a simple nonlinear boundary condition. Using a single multiplicative scaling factor to determine atomic radii from molecular dynamics Lennard-Jones parameters, the new model accurately reproduces MD free-energy calculations of hydration asymmetries for: (i) monatomic ions, (ii) titratable amino acids in both their protonated and unprotonated states, and (iii) the Mobley “bracelet” and “rod” test problems [D. L. Mobley, A. E. Barber II, C. J. Fennell, and K. A. Dill, “Charge asymmetries in hydration of polar solutes,” J. Phys. Chem. B 112, 2405–2414 (2008)]. Remarkably, the model also justifies the use of linear response expressions for charging free energies. Our boundary-element method implementation demonstrates the ease with which other continuum-electrostatic solvers can be extended to include asymmetry

  10. Markov-switching model for nonstationary runoff conditioned on El Nino information

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gelati, Emiliano; Madsen, H.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    We define a Markov-modulated autoregressive model with exogenous input (MARX) to generate runoff scenarios using climatic information. Runoff parameterization is assumed to be conditioned on a hidden climate state following a Markov chain, where state transition probabilities are functions...... of the climatic input. MARX allows stochastic modeling of nonstationary runoff, as runoff anomalies are described by a mixture of autoregressive models with exogenous input, each one corresponding to a climate state. We apply MARX to inflow time series of the Daule Peripa reservoir (Ecuador). El Nino Southern...... Oscillation (ENSO) information is used to condition runoff parameterization. Among the investigated ENSO indexes, the NINO 1+2 sea surface temperature anomalies and the trans-Nino index perform best as predictors. In the perspective of reservoir optimization at various time scales, MARX produces realistic...

  11. Information about the model's unconditioned stimulus and response in vicarious classical conditioning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hygge, S

    1976-06-01

    Four groups with 16 observers each participated in a differential, vicarious conditioning experiment with skin conductance responses as the dependent variable. The information available to the observer about the model's unconditioned stimulus and response was varied in a 2 X 2 factorial design. Results clearly showed that information about the model's unconditioned stimulus (a high or low dB level) was not necessary for vicarious instigation, but that information about the unconditioned response (a high or low emotional aversiveness) was necessary. Data for conditioning of responses showed almost identical patterns to those for vicarious instigation. To explain the results, a distinction between factors necessary for the development and elicitation of vicariously instigated responses was introduced, and the effectiveness of information about the model's response on the elicitation of vicariously instigated responses was considered in terms of an expansion of Bandura's social learning theory.

  12. Crack propagation rate modelling for 316SS exposed to PWR-relevant conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vankeerberghen, M.; Weyns, G.; Gavrilov, S.; Martens, B.; Deconinck, J.

    2009-01-01

    The crack propagation rate of Type 316 stainless steel in boric acid-lithium hydroxide solutions under PWR-relevant conditions was modelled. A film rupture/dissolution/repassivation mechanism is assumed and extended to cold worked materials by including a stress-dependent bare metal dissolution current density. The chemical and electrochemical conditions within the crack are calculated by finite element calculations, an analytical expression is used for the crack-tip strain rate and the crack-tip stress is assumed equal to 2.5 times the yield stress (plane-strain). First the model was calibrated against a literature published data set. Afterwards, the influence of various variables - dissolved hydrogen, boric acid and lithium hydroxide content, stress intensity, crack length, temperature, flow rate - was studied. Finally, other published crack growth rate tests were modelled and the calculated crack growth rates were found to be in reasonable agreement with the reported ones

  13. Condition monitoring with wind turbine SCADA data using Neuro-Fuzzy normal behavior models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schlechtingen, Meik; Santos, Ilmar

    2012-01-01

    System (ANFIS) models are employed to learn the normal behavior in a training phase, where the component condition can be considered healthy. In the application phase the trained models are applied to predict the target signals, e.g. temperatures, pressures, currents, power output, etc. The behavior......This paper presents the latest research results of a project that focuses on normal behavior models for condition monitoring of wind turbines and their components, via ordinary Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition (SCADA) data. In this machine learning approach Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Interference...... of the prediction error is used as an indicator for normal and abnormal behavior, with respect to the learned behavior. The advantage of this approach is that the prediction error is widely decoupled from the typical fluctuations of the SCADA data caused by the different turbine operational modes. To classify...

  14. Communication: Modeling charge-sign asymmetric solvation free energies with nonlinear boundary conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Knepley, Matthew G.

    2014-01-01

    We show that charge-sign-dependent asymmetric hydration can be modeled accurately using linear Poisson theory after replacing the standard electric-displacement boundary condition with a simple nonlinear boundary condition. Using a single multiplicative scaling factor to determine atomic radii from molecular dynamics Lennard-Jones parameters, the new model accurately reproduces MD free-energy calculations of hydration asymmetries for: (i) monatomic ions, (ii) titratable amino acids in both their protonated and unprotonated states, and (iii) the Mobley “bracelet” and “rod” test problems [D. L. Mobley, A. E. Barber II, C. J. Fennell, and K. A. Dill, “Charge asymmetries in hydration of polar solutes,” J. Phys. Chem. B 112, 2405–2414 (2008)]. Remarkably, the model also justifies the use of linear response expressions for charging free energies. Our boundary-element method implementation demonstrates the ease with which other continuum-electrostatic solvers can be extended to include asymmetry. PMID:25296776

  15. Communication: Modeling charge-sign asymmetric solvation free energies with nonlinear boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P. [Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, Massachusetts 02115 (United States); Knepley, Matthew G. [Computation Institute, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois 60637 (United States)

    2014-10-07

    We show that charge-sign-dependent asymmetric hydration can be modeled accurately using linear Poisson theory after replacing the standard electric-displacement boundary condition with a simple nonlinear boundary condition. Using a single multiplicative scaling factor to determine atomic radii from molecular dynamics Lennard-Jones parameters, the new model accurately reproduces MD free-energy calculations of hydration asymmetries for: (i) monatomic ions, (ii) titratable amino acids in both their protonated and unprotonated states, and (iii) the Mobley “bracelet” and “rod” test problems [D. L. Mobley, A. E. Barber II, C. J. Fennell, and K. A. Dill, “Charge asymmetries in hydration of polar solutes,” J. Phys. Chem. B 112, 2405–2414 (2008)]. Remarkably, the model also justifies the use of linear response expressions for charging free energies. Our boundary-element method implementation demonstrates the ease with which other continuum-electrostatic solvers can be extended to include asymmetry.

  16. Modeling Conditional Volatility of Indian Banking Sector’s Stock Market Returns

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh Amanjot

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The study attempts to capture conditional variance of Indian banking sector’s stock market returns across the years 2005 to 2015 by employing different GARCH based symmetric and asymmetric models. The results report existence of persistency as well as leverage effects in the banking sector return volatility. On an expected note, the global financial crisis increased conditional volatility in the Indian banking sector during the years 2007 to 2009; further evidenced from Markov regime switches. The exponential GARCH (EGARCH model is found to be the best fit model capturing time-varying variance in the banking sector. The results support strong implications for the market participants at the time of devising portfolio management strategies.

  17. Spherically symmetric models with pressure: separating expansion from contraction and generalizing TOV condition

    CERN Document Server

    Mimoso, José Pedro; Mena, Filipe C

    2010-01-01

    We investigate spherically symmetric perfect fluid spacetimes and discuss the existence and stability of a dividing shell separating expanding and collapsing regions. We perform a 3+1 splitting and obtain gauge invariant conditions relating the intrinsic spatial curvature of the shells to the ADM mass and to a function of the pressure which we introduce and that generalises the Tolman-Oppenheimer-Volkoff equilibrium condition. We analyse the particular cases of the Lema\\^itre-Tolman-Bondi dust models with a cosmological constant as an example of a $\\Lambda$-CDM model and its generalization to contain a central perfect fluid core. These models provide simple, but physically interesting illustrations of our results.

  18. Study of Piezoelectric Vibration Energy Harvester with non-linear conditioning circuit using an integrated model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manzoor, Ali; Rafique, Sajid; Usman Iftikhar, Muhammad; Mahmood Ul Hassan, Khalid; Nasir, Ali

    2017-08-01

    Piezoelectric vibration energy harvester (PVEH) consists of a cantilever bimorph with piezoelectric layers pasted on its top and bottom, which can harvest power from vibrations and feed to low power wireless sensor nodes through some power conditioning circuit. In this paper, a non-linear conditioning circuit, consisting of a full-bridge rectifier followed by a buck-boost converter, is employed to investigate the issues of electrical side of the energy harvesting system. An integrated mathematical model of complete electromechanical system has been developed. Previously, researchers have studied PVEH with sophisticated piezo-beam models but employed simplistic linear circuits, such as resistor, as electrical load. In contrast, other researchers have worked on more complex non-linear circuits but with over-simplified piezo-beam models. Such models neglect different aspects of the system which result from complex interactions of its electrical and mechanical subsystems. In this work, authors have integrated the distributed parameter-based model of piezo-beam presented in literature with a real world non-linear electrical load. Then, the developed integrated model is employed to analyse the stability of complete energy harvesting system. This work provides a more realistic and useful electromechanical model having realistic non-linear electrical load unlike the simplistic linear circuit elements employed by many researchers.

  19. Predictive Uncertainty Estimation in Water Demand Forecasting Using the Model Conditional Processor

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amos O. Anele

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In a previous paper, a number of potential models for short-term water demand (STWD prediction have been analysed to find the ones with the best fit. The results obtained in Anele et al. (2017 showed that hybrid models may be considered as the accurate and appropriate forecasting models for STWD prediction. However, such best single valued forecast does not guarantee reliable and robust decisions, which can be properly obtained via model uncertainty processors (MUPs. MUPs provide an estimate of the full predictive densities and not only the single valued expected prediction. Amongst other MUPs, the purpose of this paper is to use the multi-variate version of the model conditional processor (MCP, proposed by Todini (2008, to demonstrate how the estimation of the predictive probability conditional to a number of relatively good predictive models may improve our knowledge, thus reducing the predictive uncertainty (PU when forecasting into the unknown future. Through the MCP approach, the probability distribution of the future water demand can be assessed depending on the forecast provided by one or more deterministic forecasting models. Based on an average weekly data of 168 h, the probability density of the future demand is built conditional on three models’ predictions, namely the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA, feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN and hybrid model (i.e., combined forecast from ARMA and FFBP-NN. The results obtained show that MCP may be effectively used for real-time STWD prediction since it brings out the PU connected to its forecast, and such information could help water utilities estimate the risk connected to a decision.

  20. A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jie; Hu, Youmin; Wu, Bo; Wang, Yan; Xie, Fengyun

    2017-05-18

    The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD). Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features' information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.

  1. A Hybrid Generalized Hidden Markov Model-Based Condition Monitoring Approach for Rolling Bearings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Liu

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The operating condition of rolling bearings affects productivity and quality in the rotating machine process. Developing an effective rolling bearing condition monitoring approach is critical to accurately identify the operating condition. In this paper, a hybrid generalized hidden Markov model-based condition monitoring approach for rolling bearings is proposed, where interval valued features are used to efficiently recognize and classify machine states in the machine process. In the proposed method, vibration signals are decomposed into multiple modes with variational mode decomposition (VMD. Parameters of the VMD, in the form of generalized intervals, provide a concise representation for aleatory and epistemic uncertainty and improve the robustness of identification. The multi-scale permutation entropy method is applied to extract state features from the decomposed signals in different operating conditions. Traditional principal component analysis is adopted to reduce feature size and computational cost. With the extracted features’ information, the generalized hidden Markov model, based on generalized interval probability, is used to recognize and classify the fault types and fault severity levels. Finally, the experiment results show that the proposed method is effective at recognizing and classifying the fault types and fault severity levels of rolling bearings. This monitoring method is also efficient enough to quantify the two uncertainty components.

  2. Large-scale modeling of condition-specific gene regulatory networks by information integration and inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellwanger, Daniel Christian; Leonhardt, Jörn Florian; Mewes, Hans-Werner

    2014-12-01

    Understanding how regulatory networks globally coordinate the response of a cell to changing conditions, such as perturbations by shifting environments, is an elementary challenge in systems biology which has yet to be met. Genome-wide gene expression measurements are high dimensional as these are reflecting the condition-specific interplay of thousands of cellular components. The integration of prior biological knowledge into the modeling process of systems-wide gene regulation enables the large-scale interpretation of gene expression signals in the context of known regulatory relations. We developed COGERE (http://mips.helmholtz-muenchen.de/cogere), a method for the inference of condition-specific gene regulatory networks in human and mouse. We integrated existing knowledge of regulatory interactions from multiple sources to a comprehensive model of prior information. COGERE infers condition-specific regulation by evaluating the mutual dependency between regulator (transcription factor or miRNA) and target gene expression using prior information. This dependency is scored by the non-parametric, nonlinear correlation coefficient η(2) (eta squared) that is derived by a two-way analysis of variance. We show that COGERE significantly outperforms alternative methods in predicting condition-specific gene regulatory networks on simulated data sets. Furthermore, by inferring the cancer-specific gene regulatory network from the NCI-60 expression study, we demonstrate the utility of COGERE to promote hypothesis-driven clinical research. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

  3. A mathematical model for malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hyun M Yang

    2001-06-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: Sensitivity analysis was applied to a mathematical model describing malaria transmission relating global warming and local socioeconomic conditions. METHODS: A previous compartment model was proposed to describe the overall transmission of malaria. This model was built up on several parameters and the prevalence of malaria in a community was characterized by the values assigned to them. To assess the control efforts, the model parameters can vary on broad intervals. RESULTS: By performing the sensitivity analysis on equilibrium points, which represent the level of malaria infection in a community, the different possible scenarios are obtained when the parameters are changed. CONCLUSIONS: Depending on malaria risk, the efforts to control its transmission can be guided by a subset of parameters used in the mathematical model.

  4. Displacement Models for THUNDER Actuators having General Loads and Boundary Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieman, Robert; Smith, Ralph C.; Kackley, Tyson; Ounaies, Zoubeida; Bernd, Jeff; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    This paper summarizes techniques for quantifying the displacements generated in THUNDER actuators in response to applied voltages for a variety of boundary conditions and exogenous loads. The PDE (partial differential equations) models for the actuators are constructed in two steps. In the first, previously developed theory quantifying thermal and electrostatic strains is employed to model the actuator shapes which result from the manufacturing process and subsequent repoling. Newtonian principles are then employed to develop PDE models which quantify displacements in the actuator due to voltage inputs to the piezoceramic patch. For this analysis, drive levels are assumed to be moderate so that linear piezoelectric relations can be employed. Finite element methods for discretizing the models are developed and the performance of the discretized models are illustrated through comparison with experimental data.

  5. Modeling of a New Structure of Precision Air Conditioning System Using Secondary Condenser for Rh Regulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aries Subiantoro

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic mathematical model for a new structure of precision air conditioning (PAC has been developed. The proposed PAC uses an additional secondary condenser for relative humidity regulation compared to a basic refrigeration system. The work mechanism for this system and a vapour-compression cycle process of the system are illustrated using psychrometric chart and pressure-enthalpy diagram. A non-linear system model is derived based on the conservation of mass and energy balance principles and then linearized at steady state operating point for developing a 8th-order state space model suited for multivariable controller design. The quality of linearized model is analyzed in terms of transient response, controllability, observability, and interaction between input-output variables. The developed model is verified through simulation showing its ability for imitating the nonlinear behavior and the interaction of input-output variables.

  6. The Balance Model of Regional Development Management in Certain Territorial Conditions: Development and Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voloshenko K.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available In this article the authors detail the methodology of regional development forecasting with the balance method. They provide with an overview and assessment of the existing models and systems, and their use for the purposes of public administration at the regional level. The article underlines the need to develop a balance approach models for specific territorial conditions. In particular, the authors identify the possibilities of studying the connections between the proportions of material and cash flows within the regional system, and reconciling the needs of a regional economy with the production and resource potentials. The long-term sustainability balance model – a simulation of event-based forecasting – has been developed for the Russian exclave. The authors provide a general description of the balance model, its elements and simulation algorithm. The results of calculations using the balance model for forecasting regional development are provided for three alternative scenarios for the Kaliningrad region for the period until 2018.

  7. VALIDITY OF GARBER MODEL IN PREDICTING PAVEMENT CONDITION INDEX OF FLEXIBLE PAVEMENT IN KERBALA CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hussein A. Ewadh

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Pavement Condition Index (PCI is one of the important basics in pavement maintenance management system (PMMS, and it is used to evaluate the current and future pavement condition. This importantance in decision making to limit the maintenance needs, types of treatment, and maintenance priority. The aim of this research is to estimate the PCI value for flexible pavement urban roads in the study area (kerbala city by using Garber et al. developed model. Based on previous researches, data are collected for variables that have a significant impact on pavement condition. Data for pavement age (AGE, average daily traffic (ADT, and structural number (SN were collected for 44 sections in the network roads. A field survey (destructive test (core test and laboratory test (Marshall Test were used to determine the capacity of structure layer of pavement (SN. The condition index (CI output from a developed model was compared with the PCI output of PAVER 6.5.7 by using statistical analysis test. The developed model overestimates value of CI rather than PCI estimated from PAVER 6.5.7 due to statistical test to a 95% degree of confidence, (R = 0.771 for 44 sections (arterial and collector.

  8. Modelling the complete operation of a free-piston shock tunnel for a low enthalpy condition

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGilvray, M.; Dann, A. G.; Jacobs, P. A.

    2013-07-01

    Only a limited number of free-stream flow properties can be measured in hypersonic impulse facilities at the nozzle exit. This poses challenges for experimenters when subsequently analysing experimental data obtained from these facilities. Typically in a reflected shock tunnel, a simple analysis that requires small amounts of computational resources is used to calculate quasi-steady gas properties. This simple analysis requires initial fill conditions and experimental measurements in analytical calculations of each major flow process, using forward coupling with minor corrections to include processes that are not directly modeled. However, this simplistic approach leads to an unknown level of discrepancy to the true flow properties. To explore the simple modelling techniques accuracy, this paper details the use of transient one and two-dimensional numerical simulations of a complete facility to obtain more refined free-stream flow properties from a free-piston reflected shock tunnel operating at low-enthalpy conditions. These calculations were verified by comparison to experimental data obtained from the facility. For the condition and facility investigated, the test conditions at nozzle exit produced with the simple modelling technique agree with the time and space averaged results from the complete facility calculations to within the accuracy of the experimental measurements.

  9. In Vitro Disease Model of Microgravity Conditioning on Human Energy Metabolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Jessica; Culbertson, C.; Zhang, Ye; Emami, K.; Wu, H.; Sun, Wei

    2010-01-01

    NASA and its partners are committed to introducing appropriate new technology to enable learning and living safely beyond the Earth for extended periods of time in a sustainable and possibly indefinite manner. In the responsible acquisition of that goal, life sciences is tasked to tune and advance current medical technology to prepare for human health and wellness in the space environment. The space environment affects the condition and function of biological systems from organ level function to shape of individual organelles. The objective of this paper is to study the effect of microgravity on kinetics of drug metabolism. This fundamental characterization is meaningful to (1) scientific understanding of the response of biology to microgravity and (2) clinical dosing requirements and pharmacological thresholds during long term manned space exploration. Metabolism kinetics of the anti-nausea drug promethazine (PMZ) were determined by an in vitro ground model of 3-dimensional aggregates of human hepatocytes conditioned to weightlessness using a rotating wall bioreactor. The authors observed up-regulated PMZ conversion in model microgravity conditions and attribute this to effect to model microgravity conditioning acting on metabolic mechanisms of the cells. Further work is necessary to determine which particular cellular mechanisms are governing the experimental observations, but the authors conclude kinetics of drug metabolism are responsive to gravitational fields and further study of this sensitivity would improve dosing of pharmaceuticals to persons exposed to a microgravity environment.

  10. Complex dynamics and chaos control of duopoly Bertrand model in Chinese air-conditioning market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi, Qi Guo; Zeng, Xiang Jin

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: •A dynamic duopoly Bertrand model with bounded rationality and quadratic cost function. •In Chinese air-conditioning market the boundary equilibrium point is locally stable. •The Lyapunov dimension of the chaos attractor is 1.9585. •The adjustment speeds may cause a market structure to behave chaotically. •The chaotic behavior can be controlled by decreasing the degree of substitutability. -- Abstract: A dynamic duopoly Bertrand model with quadratic cost function which is closer to reality and different from previous researches is discussed. The model is applied into air-conditioning market where the boundary equilibrium point is locally stable. Numerical simulations illustrate that the stability of Nash equilibrium strongly depends on the speed of adjustment of bounded rational player. The adjustment speeds and the degree of substitutability may undermine the stability of the equilibrium and cause a market structure to behave chaotically. The Lyapunov dimension of the chaos attractor is 1.9585 under some conditions. The stabilization of the chaotic behavior can be obtained by reducing the degree of substitutability. The results have an important theoretical and practical significance to Chinese air-conditioning market

  11. Influence of the Outer Boundary Condition on models of AGB stars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagstaff, G.; Weiss, A.

    2018-04-01

    Current implementations of the stellar atmosphere typically derive boundary conditions for the interior model from either grey plane-parallel atmospheres or scaled solar atmospheres, neither of which can be considered to have appropriate underlying assumptions for the Thermally Pulsing Asymptotic Giant Branch (TP-AGB). This paper discusses the treatment and influence of the outer boundary condition within stellar evolution codes, and the resulting effects on the AGB evolution. The complex interaction of processes, such as the third dredge up and mass loss, governing the TP-AGB can be affected by varying the treatment of this boundary condition. Presented here are the results from altering the geometry, opacities and the implementation of a grid of MARCS/COMARCS model atmospheres in order to improve this treatment. Although there are changes in the TP-AGB evolution, observable quantities, such as the final core mass, are not significantly altered as a result of the change of atmospheric treatment. During the course of the investigation, a previously unseen phenomena in the AGB models was observed and further investigated. This is believed to be physical, although arising from specific conditions which make its presence unlikely. If it were present in stars, this phenomenon would increase the carbon-star lifetime above 10Myr and increase the final core mass by ˜0.1M⊙ in the narrow initial-mass range where it was observed (˜2 - 2.3M⊙).

  12. SEAFLOOR MORPHOLOGY INFLUENCES ON CURRENT CONDITION IN A SUNDA STRAIT BRIDGE PROJECT USING NUMERICAL MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franto Novico

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available It has been more than 50 years since the idea to construct the bridge of Sunda Strait was inspirited by Prof. Sedyatmo. This issued is very important due to accelerate the economic growth between Sumatera Island and Java Island which is known as the densest population in the Indonesia. However, until today the bridge is still not construct yet because the high budget and the lack of technical data are still being problems. One of the most important data is current condition along the Sunda Strait. Unfortunately, no one has been clearly studied about current condition along Sunda Strait. Therefore, the information about current condition would be completed to fulfil the lack of data and information. The RV Geomarine I, as a research vessel conducted the survey in October 2012 that one of the objectives is to get the impression about the current condition around the bridge plan. Attaching echo sounder of bathy 1500 to get the depth profile and applied the RD Instrument ADCP Mobile Workhorse Monitor 300 kHz to collect the real current data and analyze the current using numerical model by Mike 21 were carried out to describe the condition of the current around the bridge proposed. In addition, the detail flexible mesh of hydrodynamic model is applied along bridge plan to analyse the current condition that caused by seafloor morphology. Based on the ADCP data it would be seen that the highest velocity record of the current occurs at October 18th 2012 at line 19 with the value 2.63 m/sec. Nevertheless, the numerical model shown the highest current velocity occurs around the northwest of Sangiang Island where the speed attains more than 4.59 m/sec.

  13. Consistent initial conditions for the Saint-Venant equations in river network modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C.-W. Yu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Initial conditions for flows and depths (cross-sectional areas throughout a river network are required for any time-marching (unsteady solution of the one-dimensional (1-D hydrodynamic Saint-Venant equations. For a river network modeled with several Strahler orders of tributaries, comprehensive and consistent synoptic data are typically lacking and synthetic starting conditions are needed. Because of underlying nonlinearity, poorly defined or inconsistent initial conditions can lead to convergence problems and long spin-up times in an unsteady solver. Two new approaches are defined and demonstrated herein for computing flows and cross-sectional areas (or depths. These methods can produce an initial condition data set that is consistent with modeled landscape runoff and river geometry boundary conditions at the initial time. These new methods are (1 the pseudo time-marching method (PTM that iterates toward a steady-state initial condition using an unsteady Saint-Venant solver and (2 the steady-solution method (SSM that makes use of graph theory for initial flow rates and solution of a steady-state 1-D momentum equation for the channel cross-sectional areas. The PTM is shown to be adequate for short river reaches but is significantly slower and has occasional non-convergent behavior for large river networks. The SSM approach is shown to provide a rapid solution of consistent initial conditions for both small and large networks, albeit with the requirement that additional code must be written rather than applying an existing unsteady Saint-Venant solver.

  14. Pyrolysis of propane under vacuum carburizing conditions. An experimental and modeling study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Khan, R.U.; Bajohr, S.; Buchholz, D.; Reimert, R. [Engler-Bunte-Institut, Bereich Gas, Erdoel und Kohle, Engler Bunte Ring 1, Universitaet Karlsruhe, 76131 Karlsruhe (Germany); Minh, H.D.; Norinaga, K.; Janardhanan, V.M.; Tischer, S.; Deutschmann, O. [Institute of Chemical Technology, University of Karlsruhe, 76128 Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2008-03-15

    Propane has been pyrolyzed in a flow reactor system at different temperatures ranging from 640 C to 1010 C and at 8 mbar of partial pressure which are typical vacuum carburizing conditions for steel. Nitrogen was used as a carrier gas. The products of pyrolysis were collected and analyzed by gas chromatography. The reactor was numerically simulated by 1D and 2D flow models coupled to a detailed gas phase reaction mechanism. The gas atmosphere composition has been predicted under the conditions of vacuum carburizing of steel. (author)

  15. A Markov switching model of the conditional volatility of crude oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fong, Wai Mun; See, Kim Hock

    2002-01-01

    This paper examines the temporal behaviour of volatility of daily returns on crude oil futures using a generalised regime switching model that allows for abrupt changes in mean and variance, GARCH dynamics, basis-driven time-varying transition probabilities and conditional leptokurtosis. This flexible model enables us to capture many complex features of conditional volatility within a relatively parsimonious set-up. We show that regime shifts are clearly present in the data and dominate GARCH effects. Within the high volatility state, a negative basis is more likely to increase regime persistence than a positive basis, a finding which is consistent with previous empirical research on the theory of storage. The volatility regimes identified by our model correlate well with major events affecting supply and demand for oil. Out-of-sample tests indicate that the regime switching model performs noticeably better than non-switching models regardless of evaluation criteria. We conclude that regime switching models provide a useful framework for the financial historian interested in studying factors behind the evolution of volatility and to oil futures traders interested short-term volatility forecasts

  16. Development of systematic models for aerosol agglomeration and spray removal under severe accident conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kajimoto, Mitsuhiro

    2008-01-01

    Radionuclide behavior during various severe accident conditions has been addressed as one of the important issues to discuss environmental safety in nuclear power plants. The present paper deals with the development of analytical models and their validations for the agglomeration of multiple-component aerosol and spray removal that controls source terms to the environment of both aerosols and gaseous radionuclides during recirculation mode operation in a containment system for a light water reactor. As for aerosol agglomeration, the single collision kernel model that can cover all types of two-body collision of aerosol was developed. In addition, the dynamic model that can treat aerosol and vapor transfer leading to the equilibrium condition under the containment spray operation was developed. The validations of the present models for multiple-component aerosol growth by agglomeration were performed by comparisons with Nuclear Safety Pilot Plant (NSPP) experiments at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and AB experiments at Hanford Engineering National Laboratory (HEDL). In addition, the spray removal models were applied to the analysis of containment spray experiment (CSE) at HEDL. The results calculated by the models showed good agreements with experimental results. (author)

  17. The modeling of fuel rod behaviour under RIA conditions in the code DYN3D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohde, U.

    1998-01-01

    A description of the fuel rod behaviour and heat transfer model used in the code DYN3D for nuclear reactor core dynamic simulations is given. Besides the solution of heat conduction equations in fuel and cladding, the model comprises detailed description of heat transfer in the gas gap by conduction, radiation and fuel-cladding contact. The gas gap behaviour is modeled in a mechanistic way taking into account transient changes of the gas gap parameters based on given conditions for the initial state. Thermal, elastic and plastic deformations of fuel and cladding are taken into account within 1D approximation. Numerical studies concerning the fuel rod behaviour under RIA conditions in power reactors are reported. Fuel rod behaviour at high pressures and flow rates in power reactors is different from the behaviour under atmospheric pressure and stagnant flow conditions in the experiments. The mechanisms of fuel rod failure for fresh and burned fuel reported from the literature can be qualitatively reproduced by the DYN3D model. (author)

  18. Kinetics of Uranium(VI) Desorption from Contaminated Sediments: Effect of Geochemical Conditions and Model Evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Chongxuan; Shi, Zhenqing; Zachara, John M.

    2009-01-01

    Stirred-flow cell experiments were performed to investigate the kinetics of uranyl (U(VI)) desorption from a contaminated sediment collected from the Hanford 300 Area at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford Site, Washington. Three influent solutions of variable pH, Ca and carbonate concentrations that affected U(VI) aqueous and surface speciation were used under dynamic flow conditions to evaluate the effect of geochemical conditions on the rate of U(VI) desorption. The measured rate of U(VI) desorption varied with solution chemical composition that evolved as a result of thermodynamic and kinetic interactions between the influent solutions and sediment. The solution chemical composition that led to a lower equilibrium U(VI) sorption to the solid phase yielded a faster desorption rate. The experimental results were used to evaluate a multi-rate, surface complexation model (SCM) that has been proposed to describe U(VI) desorption kinetics in the Hanford sediment that contained complex sorbed U(VI) species in mass transfer limited domains. The model was modified and supplemented by including multi-rate, ion exchange reactions to describe the geochemical interactions between the solutions and sediment. With the same set of model parameters, the modified model reasonably well described the evolution of major ions and the rates of U(VI) desorption under variable geochemical and flow conditions, implying that the multi-rate SCM is an effective way to describe U(VI) desorption kinetics in subsurface sediments

  19. Histidine Decarboxylase Knockout Mice as a Model of the Pathophysiology of Tourette Syndrome and Related Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pittenger, Christopher

    2017-01-01

    While the normal functions of histamine (HA) in the central nervous system have gradually come into focus over the past 30 years, the relationship of abnormalities in neurotransmitter HA to human disease has been slower to emerge. New insight came with the 2010 description of a rare nonsense mutation in the biosynthetic enzyme histidine decarboxylase (Hdc) that was associated with Tourette syndrome (TS) and related conditions in a single family pedigree. Subsequent genetic work has provided further support for abnormalities of HA signaling in sporadic TS. As a result of this genetic work, Hdc knockout mice, which were generated more than 15 years ago, have been reexamined as a model of the pathophysiology of TS and related conditions. Parallel work in these KO mice and in human carriers of the Hdc mutation has revealed abnormalities in the basal ganglia system and its modulation by dopamine (DA) and has confirmed the etiologic, face, and predictive validity of the model. The Hdc-KO model thus serves as a unique platform to probe the pathophysiology of TS and related conditions, and to generate specific hypotheses for subsequent testing in humans. This chapter summarizes the development and validation of this model and recent and ongoing work using it to further investigate pathophysiological changes that may contribute to these disorders.

  20. Development of mapped stress-field boundary conditions based on a Hill-type muscle model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardiff, P; Karač, A; FitzPatrick, D; Flavin, R; Ivanković, A

    2014-09-01

    Forces generated in the muscles and tendons actuate the movement of the skeleton. Accurate estimation and application of these musculotendon forces in a continuum model is not a trivial matter. Frequently, musculotendon attachments are approximated as point forces; however, accurate estimation of local mechanics requires a more realistic application of musculotendon forces. This paper describes the development of mapped Hill-type muscle models as boundary conditions for a finite volume model of the hip joint, where the calculated muscle fibres map continuously between attachment sites. The applied muscle forces are calculated using active Hill-type models, where input electromyography signals are determined from gait analysis. Realistic muscle attachment sites are determined directly from tomography images. The mapped muscle boundary conditions, implemented in a finite volume structural OpenFOAM (ESI-OpenCFD, Bracknell, UK) solver, are employed to simulate the mid-stance phase of gait using a patient-specific natural hip joint, and a comparison is performed with the standard point load muscle approach. It is concluded that physiological joint loading is not accurately represented by simplistic muscle point loading conditions; however, when contact pressures are of sole interest, simplifying assumptions with regard to muscular forces may be valid. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  1. The modeling of fuel rod behaviour under RIA conditions in the code DYN3D

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rohde, U.

    2001-01-01

    A description of the fuel rod behaviour and heat transfer model used in the code DYN3D for nuclear reactor core dynamic simulations is given. Besides the solution of heat conduction equations in fuel and cladding, the model comprises a detailed description of heat transfer in the gas gap by conduction, radiation and fuel-cladding contact. The gas gap behaviour is modeled in a mechanistic way taking into account transient changes of the gas gap parameters based on given conditions for the initial state. Thermal, elastic and plastic deformations of fuel and cladding are taken into account within 1D approximation. A creeping law for time-dependent estimation of plastic deformations is implemented. Metal-water reaction of the cladding material in the high temperature region is considered. The cladding-coolant heat transfer regime map covers the region from one-phase liquid convection to dispersed flow with superheated steam. Special emphasis is put on taking into account the impact of thermodynamic non-equilibrium conditions on heat transfer. For the validation of the model, experiments on fuel rod behaviour during RIAs carried out in Russian and Japanese pulsed research reactors with shortened probes of fresh fuel rods are calculated. Comparisons between calculated and measured results are shown and discussed. It is shown, that the fuel rod behaviour is significantly influenced by plastic deformation of the cladding, post crisis heat transfer with sub-cooled liquid conditions and heat release from the metal-water reaction. Numerical studies concerning the fuel rod behaviour under RIA conditions in power reactors are reported on. It is demonstrated, that the fuel rod behaviour at high pressures and flow rates in power reactors is different from the behaviour under atmospheric pressure and stagnant flow conditions in the experiments. The mechanisms of fuel rod failure for fresh and burned fuel reported from the literature can be qualitatively reproduced by the DYN3D

  2. 78 FR 76254 - Special Conditions: Airbus, Model A350-900 Series Airplane; Control Surface Awareness and Mode...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-12-17

    ...-0899; Notice No. 25-13-15-SC] Special Conditions: Airbus, Model A350-900 Series Airplane; Control... of proposed special conditions. SUMMARY: This action proposes special conditions for the Airbus Model..., data, or views. The most helpful comments reference a specific portion of the proposed special...

  3. Development of a Diagnostic Prediction Model for Conductive Conditions in Neonates Using Wideband Acoustic Immittance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myers, Joshua; Kei, Joseph; Aithal, Sreedevi; Aithal, Venkatesh; Driscoll, Carlie; Khan, Asaduzzaman; Manuel, Alehandrea; Joseph, Anjali; Malicka, Alicja N

    2018-03-03

    Wideband acoustic immittance (WAI) is an emerging test of middle-ear function with potential applications for neonates in screening and diagnostic settings. Previous large-scale diagnostic accuracy studies have assessed the performance of WAI against evoked otoacoustic emissions, but further research is needed using a more stringent reference standard. Research into suitable quantitative techniques to analyze the large volume of data produced by WAI is still in its infancy. Prediction models are an attractive method for analysis of multivariate data because they provide individualized probabilities that a subject has the condition. A clinically useful prediction model must accurately discriminate between normal and abnormal cases and be well calibrated (i.e., give accurate predictions). The present study aimed to develop a diagnostic prediction model for detecting conductive conditions in neonates using WAI. A stringent reference standard was created by combining results of high-frequency tympanometry and distortion product otoacoustic emissions. High-frequency tympanometry and distortion product otoacoustic emissions were performed on both ears of 629 healthy neonates to assess outer- and middle-ear function. Wideband absorbance and complex admittance (magnitude and phase) were measured at frequencies ranging from 226 to 8000 Hz in each neonate at ambient pressure using a click stimulus. Results from one ear of each neonate were used to develop the prediction model. WAI results were used as logistic regression predictors to model the probability that an ear had outer/middle-ear dysfunction. WAI variables were modeled both linearly and nonlinearly, to test whether allowing nonlinearity improved model fit and thus calibration. The best-fitting model was validated using the opposite ears and with bootstrap resampling. The best-fitting model used absorbance at 1000 and 2000 Hz, admittance magnitude at 1000 and 2000 Hz, and admittance phase at 1000 and 4000 Hz modeled

  4. Drought Forecasting with Vegetation Temperature Condition Index Using ARIMA Models in the Guanzhong Plain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miao Tian

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper works on the agricultural drought forecasting in the Guanzhong Plain of China using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA models based on the time series of drought monitoring results of Vegetation Temperature Condition Index (VTCI. About 90 VTCI images derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR data were selected to develop the ARIMA models from the erecting stage to the maturity stage of winter wheat (early March to late May in each year at a ten-day interval of the years from 2000 to 2009. We take the study area overlying on the administration map around the study area, and divide the study area into 17 parts where at least one weather station is located in each part. The pixels where the 17 weather stations are located are firstly chosen and studied for their fitting models, and then the best models for all pixels of the whole area are determined. According to the procedures for the models’ development, the selected best models for the 17 pixels are identified and the forecast is done with three steps. The forecasting results of the ARIMA models were compared with the monitoring ones. The results show that with reference to the categorized VTCI drought monitoring results, the categorized forecasting results of the ARIMA models are in good agreement with the monitoring ones. The categorized drought forecasting results of the ARIMA models are more severity in the northeast of the Plain in April 2009, which are in good agreements with the monitoring ones. The absolute errors of the AR(1 models are lower than the SARIMA models, both in the frequency distributions and in the statistic results. However, the ability of SARIMA models to detect the changes of the drought situation is better than the AR(1 models. These results indicate that the ARIMA models can better forecast the category and extent of droughts and can be applied to forecast droughts in the Plain.

  5. Modeling hydrate formation conditions in the presence of electrolytes and polar inhibitor solutions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Osfouri, Shahriar; Azin, Reza; Gholami, Reza; Izadpanah, Amir Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A new predictive model is proposed for prediction of hydrate formation pressures. • A new local composition model was used to evaluate water activity in the presence of electrolyte. • MEG, DEG and TEG were used to test ability of the proposed model in the presence of polar inhibitors. • Cage occupancies by methane for the small cage were higher than carbon dioxide for gas mixtures. • The proposed model gives better match with experimental data in mixed electrolyte solutions. - Abstract: In this paper, a new predictive model is proposed for prediction of gas hydrate formation conditions in the presence of single and mixed electrolytes and solutions containing both electrolyte and a polar inhibitor such as monoethylene glycol (MEG), diethylene glycol (DEG) and triethylene glycol (TEG). The proposed model is based on the γ–φ approach, which uses modified Patel–Teja equation of state (VPT EOS) for characterizing the vapor phase, the solid solution theory by van der Waals and Platteeuw for modeling the hydrate phase, the non-electrolyte NRTL-NRF local composition model and Pitzer–Debye–Huckel equation as short-range and long-range contributions to calculate water activity in single electrolyte solutions. Also, the Margules equation was used to determine the activity of water in solutions containing polar inhibitor (glycols). The model predictions are in acceptable agreement with experimental data. For single electrolyte solutions, the model predictions are similar to available models, while for mixtures of electrolytes and mixtures of electrolytes and inhibitors, the proposed model gives significantly better predictions. In addition, the absolute average deviation of hydrate formation pressures (AADP) for 144 experimental data in solutions containing single electrolyte is 5.86% and for 190 experimental data in mixed electrolytes solutions is 5.23%. Furthermore, the proposed model has an AADP of 14.13%, 5.82% and 5.28% in solutions

  6. Mathematical model of renal elimination of fluid and small ions during hyper- and hypovolemic conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyenge, Christina C; Bowen, Bruce D; Reed, Rolf K; Bert, Joel L

    2003-02-01

    This study is concerned with the formulation of a 'kidney module' linked to the plasma compartment of a larger mathematical model previously developed. Combined, these models can be used to predict, amongst other things, fluid and small ion excretion rates by the kidney; information that should prove useful in evaluating values and trends related to whole-body fluid balance for different clinical conditions to establish fluid administration protocols and for educational purposes. The renal module assumes first-order, negative-feedback responses of the kidney to changes in plasma volume and/or plasma sodium content from their normal physiological set points. Direct hormonal influences are not explicitly formulated in this empiric model. The model also considers that the renal excretion rates of small ions other than sodium are proportional to the excretion rate of sodium. As part of the model development two aspects are emphasized (1): the estimation of parameters related to the renal elimination of fluid and small ions, and (2) model validation via comparisons between the model predictions and selected experimental data. For validation, model predictions of the renal dynamics are compared with new experimental data for two cases: plasma overload resulting from external fluid infusion (e.g. infusions of iso-osmolar solutions and/or hypertonic/hyperoncotic saline solutions), and untreated hypo volemic conditions that result from the external loss of blood. The present study demonstrates that the empiric kidney module presented above can provide good short-term predictions with respect to all renal outputs considered here. Physiological implications of the model are also presented. Copyright Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica 47 (2003)

  7. Initial conditions and ENSO prediction using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larow, T. E.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

    1998-01-01

    A coupled ocean-atmosphere initialization scheme using Newtonian relaxation has been developed for the Florida State University coupled ocean-atmosphere global general circulation model. The initialization scheme is used to initialize the coupled model for seasonal forecasting the boreal summers of 1987 and 1988. The atmosphere model is a modified version of the Florida State University global spectral model, resolution T-42. The ocean general circulation model consists of a slightly modified version of the Hamburg's climate group model described in Latif (1987) and Latif et al. (1993). The coupling is synchronous with information exchanged every two model hours. Using ECMWF atmospheric daily analysis and observed monthly mean SSTs, two, 1-year, time-dependent, Newtonian relaxation were performed using the coupled model prior to conducting the seasonal forecasts. The coupled initializations were conducted from 1 June 1986 to 1 June 1987 and from 1 June 1987 to 1 June 1988. Newtonian relaxation was applied to the prognostic atmospheric vorticity, divergence, temperature and dew point depression equations. In the ocean model the relaxation was applied to the surface temperature. Two, 10-member ensemble integrations were conducted to examine the impact of the coupled initialization on the seasonal forecasts. The initial conditions used for the ensembles are the ocean's final state after the initialization and the atmospheric initial conditions are ECMWF analysis. Examination of the SST root mean square error and anomaly correlations between observed and forecasted SSTs in the Niño-3 and Niño-4 regions for the 2 seasonal forecasts, show closer agreement between the initialized forecast than two, 10-member non-initialized ensemble forecasts. The main conclusion here is that a single forecast with the coupled initialization outperforms, in SST anomaly prediction, against each of the control forecasts (members of the ensemble) which do not include such an initialization

  8. A simple approach for the modeling of an ODS steel mechanical behavior in pilgering conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vanegas-Márquez, E.; Mocellin, K.; Toualbi, L.; Carlan, Y. de; Logé, R.E.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► The mechanical behavior of an ODS steel is investigated under pilgering conditions. ► Two mechanical tests show different trends, and are described with a simple model. ► Model parameters are identified using one sample, and considering strain range changes. ► The constitutive model involves few parameters but their values are strain path dependent. ► One identified set of parameters would be appropriate for FEM modeling of pilgering. - Abstract: The optimization of the forming of ODS tubes is linked to the choice of an appropriated constitutive model for modeling the metal forming process. In the framework of a unified plastic constitutive theory, the strain-controlled cyclic characteristics of a ferritic ODS steel were analyzed and modeled with two different tests. The first test is a classical tension–compression test, and leads to cyclic softening at low to intermediate strain amplitudes. The second test consists in alternated uniaxial compressions along two perpendicular axes, and is selected based on the similarities with the loading path induced by the Fe–14Cr–1W–Ti ODS cladding tube pilgering process. This second test exhibits cyclic hardening at all tested strain amplitudes. Since variable strain amplitudes prevail in pilgering conditions, the parameters of the considered constitutive law were identified based on a loading sequence including strain amplitude changes. A proposed semi automated inverse analysis methodology is shown to efficiently provide optimal sets of parameters for the considered loading sequences. When compared to classical approaches, the model involves a reduced number of parameters, while keeping a good ability to capture stress changes induced by strain amplitude changes. Furthermore, the methodology only requires one test, which is an advantage when the amount of available material is limited. As two distinct sets of parameters were identified for the two considered tests, it is recommended to

  9. Modeling Bacteria-Water Interactions in Soil: EPS Dynamics Under Evaporative Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furrer, J.; Hinestroza, H. F.; Guo, Y. S.; Gage, D. J.; Cho, Y. K.; Shor, L. M.

    2017-12-01

    The soil habitat represents a major linkage between the water and carbon cycles: the ability of soils to sequester or release carbon is determined primarily by soil moisture. Water retention and distribution in soils controls the abundance and activity of soil microbes. Microbes in turn impact water retention by creating biofilms, composed of extracellular polymeric substances (EPS). We model the effects of bacterial EPS on water retention at the pore scale. We use the lattice Boltzmann method (LBM), a well-established fluid dynamics modeling platform, and modify it to include the effects of water uptake and release by the swelling/shrinking EPS phase. The LB model is implemented in 2-D, with a non-ideal gas equation of state that allows condensation and evaporation of fluid in pore spaces. Soil particles are modeled according to experimentally determined particle size distributions and include realistic pore geometries, in contrast to many soil models which use spherical soil particles for simplicity. Model results are compared with evaporation experiments in soil micromodels and other simpler experimental systems, and model parameters are tuned to match experimental results. Drying behavior and solid-gel contact angle of EPS produced by the soil bacteria Sinorhizobium meliloti has been characterized and compared to the behavior of deionized water under the same conditions. The difference in behavior between the fluids is used to parameterize the model. The model shows excellent qualitative agreement for soil micromodels with both aggregated and non-aggregated particle arrangements under no-EPS conditions, and reproduces realistic drying behavior for EPS. This work represents a multi-disciplinary approach to understanding microbe-soil interactions at the pore scale.

  10. Stochastic user equilibrium with equilibrated choice sets: Part II - Solving the restricted SUE for the logit family

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Thomas Kjær; Watling, David Paul; Prato, Carlo Giacomo

    2015-01-01

    We propose a new class of path-based solution algorithms to solve the Restricted Stochastic User Equilibrium (RSUE), as introduced in Watling et al. (2015). The class allows a flexible specification of how the choice sets are systematically grown by considering congestion effects and how the flow...... real-life cases, in which we explore convergence patterns and choice set composition and size, for alternative specifications of the RSUE model and solution algorithm....

  11. Probability distribution of magnetization in the one-dimensional Ising model: effects of boundary conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antal, T [Physics Department, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC V5A 1S6 (Canada); Droz, M [Departement de Physique Theorique, Universite de Geneve, CH 1211 Geneva 4 (Switzerland); Racz, Z [Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eoetvoes University, 1117 Budapest, Pazmany setany 1/a (Hungary)

    2004-02-06

    Finite-size scaling functions are investigated both for the mean-square magnetization fluctuations and for the probability distribution of the magnetization in the one-dimensional Ising model. The scaling functions are evaluated in the limit of the temperature going to zero (T {yields} 0), the size of the system going to infinity (N {yields} {infinity}) while N[1 - tanh(J/k{sub B}T)] is kept finite (J being the nearest neighbour coupling). Exact calculations using various boundary conditions (periodic, antiperiodic, free, block) demonstrate explicitly how the scaling functions depend on the boundary conditions. We also show that the block (small part of a large system) magnetization distribution results are identical to those obtained for free boundary conditions.

  12. Modeling the effects of evolving redox conditions on the corrosion of copper containers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kng, F.; LeNeveu, D.M.; Jobe, D.J.

    1994-01-01

    The corrosive environment around the containers in a Canadian nuclear fuel waste disposal vault will change over time from open-quotes warm and oxidizingclose quotes to open-quotes cool and anoxic.close quotes As the conditions change, so too will the corrosion behaviour of the containers. For copper containers, uniform corrosion and, possibly, pitting will occur during the initial aggressive phase, to be replaced by slow uniform corrosion during the long-term anoxic period. The corrosion behaviour of copper has been studied over a range of conditions representing all phases in the evolution of the vault environment. The results of these studies are summarized and used to illustrate how a model can be developed to predict the corrosion behaviour and container lifetimes over long periods of time. Lifetimes in excess of 10 6 a are predicted for 25-mm-thick copper containers under Canadian disposal conditions

  13. Recent developments in the detailed modelling of power house environmental conditions using GOTHIC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wong, R.C.; Fluke, R.J.; Yim, K.; Rossitter, B.G.

    1997-01-01

    Environmental qualification of safety equipment in the powerhouse requires detailed information on the predicted harsh conditions that can arise following a steam line break. Although lumped parameter codes provide quick assessments of global conditions, the results are unsatisfactory because the spatial detail needed to evaluate specific equipment, or indeed to optimize and confirm the design adequacy of mitigating features, is not available. To overcome these problems, new models have been developed to provide detailed three-dimensional information using the GOTHIC code. Furthermore, new animated graphical displays help the designer visualize and fully comprehend the buoyancy driven steam flow within the powerhouse. This has lead to quick optimization of the placement, size and opening time of the emergency venting system, thereby mitigating the conditions for which safety equipment must be qualified. This has resulted in significant cost savings for the environmental qualification programme. (author)

  14. Monitoring growth condition of spring maize in Northeast China using a process-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Peijuan; Zhou, Yuyu; Huo, Zhiguo; Han, Lijuan; Qiu, Jianxiu; Tan, Yanjng; Liu, Dan

    2018-04-01

    Early and accurate assessment of the growth condition of spring maize, a major crop in China, is important for the national food security. This study used a process-based Remote-Sensing-Photosynthesis-Yield Estimation for Crops (RS-P-YEC) model, driven by satellite-derived leaf area index and ground-based meteorological observations, to simulate net primary productivity (NPP) of spring maize in Northeast China from the first ten-day (FTD) of May to the second ten-day (STD) of August during 2001-2014. The growth condition of spring maize in 2014 in Northeast China was monitored and evaluated spatially and temporally by comparison with 5- and 13-year averages, as well as 2009 and 2013. Results showed that NPP simulated by the RS-P-YEC model, with consideration of multi-scattered radiation inside the crop canopy, could reveal the growth condition of spring maize more reasonably than the Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator. Moreover, NPP outperformed other commonly used vegetation indices (e.g., Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI)) for monitoring and evaluating the growth condition of spring maize. Compared with the 5- and 13-year averages, the growth condition of spring maize in 2014 was worse before the STD of June and after the FTD of August, and it was better from the third ten-day (TTD) of June to the TTD of July across Northeast China. Spatially, regions with slightly worse and worse growth conditions in the STD of August 2014 were concentrated mainly in central Northeast China, and they accounted for about half of the production area of spring maize in Northeast China. This study confirms that NPP is a good indicator for monitoring and evaluating growth condition because of its capacity to reflect the physiological characteristics of crops. Meanwhile, the RS-P-YEC model, driven by remote sensing and ground-based meteorological data, is effective for monitoring crop growth condition over large areas in a near real

  15. Modeling of Cr(VI) Bioreduction Under Fermentative and Denitrifying Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molins, S.; Steefel, C.; Yang, L.; Beller, H. R.

    2011-12-01

    The mechanisms of bioreductive immobilization of Cr(VI) were investigated by reactive transport modeling of a set of flow-through column experiments performed using natural Hanford 100H aquifer sediment. The columns were continuously eluted with 5 μM Cr(VI), 5 mM lactate as the electron donor, and selected electron acceptors (tested individually). Here we focus on the two separate experimental conditions that showed the most removal of Cr(VI) from solution: fermentation and denitrification. In each case, a network of enzymatic and abiotic reaction pathways was considered to interpret the rate of chromate reduction. The model included biomass growth and decay, and thermodynamic limitations on reaction rates, and was constrained by effluent concentrations measured by IC and ICP-MS and additional information from bacterial isolates from column effluent. Under denitrifying conditions, Cr(VI) reduction was modeled as co-metabolic with nitrate reduction based on experimental observations and previous studies on a denitrifying bacterium derived from the Hanford 100H aquifer. The reactive transport model results supported this interpretation of the reaction mechanism and were used to quantify the efficiency of the process. The models results also suggest that biomass growth likely relied on a nitrogen source other than ammonium (e.g. nitrate). Under fermentative conditions and based on cell suspension studies performed on a bacterial isolate from the columns, the model assumes that Cr(VI) reduction is carried out directly by fermentative bacteria that convert lactate into acetate and propionate. The evolution to complete lactate fermentation and Cr(VI) reduction took place over a week's time and simulations were used to determine an estimate for a lower limit of the rate of chromate reduction by calibration with the flow-through column experimental results. In spite of sulfate being added to these columns, sulfate reduction proceeded at a slow rate and was not well

  16. Using remotely sensed vegetation indices to model ecological pasture conditions in Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Masselink, Loes; Baartman, Jantiene; Verbesselt, Jan; Borchardt, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Kyrgyzstan has a long history of nomadic lifestyle in which pastures play an important role. However, currently the pastures are subject to severe grazing-induced degradation. Deteriorating levels of biomass, palatability and biodiversity reduce the pastures' productivity. To counter this and introduce sustainable pasture management, up-to-date information regarding the ecological conditions of the pastures is essential. This research aimed to investigate the potential of a remote sensing-based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions in the Kara-Unkur watershed, Kyrgyzstan. The relations between Vegetation Indices (VIs) from Landsat ETM+ images and biomass, palatability and species richness field data were investigated. Both simple and multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, including terrain attributes, were applied. Subsequently, trends of these three pasture conditions were mapped using time series analysis. The results show that biomass is most accurately estimated by a model including the Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (MSAVI) and a slope factor (R2 = 0.65, F = 0.0006). Regarding palatability, a model including the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Northness Index, Near Infrared (NIR) and Red band was most accurate (R2 = 0.61, F = 0.0160). Species richness was most accurately estimated by a model including Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), Eastness Index and estimated biomass (R2 = 0.81, F = 0.0028). Subsequent trend analyses of all three estimated ecological pasture conditions presented very similar trend patterns. Despite the need for a more robust validation, this study confirms the high potential of a remote sensing based methodology to detect changing ecological pasture conditions.

  17. Modelling of domestic refrigerators' energy consumption under real life conditions in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Geppert, Jasmin

    2011-05-23

    In recent decades, energy and resource savings have become increasingly important, not only in the industrial, but also the residential sector. As one of the largest energy users in private homes, domestic refrigerators and freezers were among the first appliances to be targeted for energy efficiency improvements. With the aim of encouraging manufacturers to develop and produce more efficient appliances, the European Energy Label was introduced in the mid-nineties. However, the energy use of refrigerators does not only depend on technical components and features. Especially the using conditions in private homes are of a decisive influence. Thus, the present study has been conducted to test the sensitivity of refrigerators' energy consumption to various usage conditions within realistic ranges, which have been determined by means of two empirical studies. Key information gathered from the experiments were used as a base for the development and validation of a simplified model that allows predicting the energy consumption of refrigerators in use. The practical experiments were performed under controlled laboratory conditions with four different refrigerators with an A{sup +} or A{sup ++} energy efficiency rating (two statically cooled built-in fridge-freezers, one dynamically cooled refrigerator and one statically cooled refrigerator). The investigations revealed that the ambient temperature has the greatest impact on a refrigerator's energy consumption, followed by thermostat setting and heat load by insertion of warm items. The refrigerators' load under static conditions as well as the number of door openings have almost no impact on energy consumption. The modelling methodology follows a first-principle approach adjusted by experimental data. When compared to experimental results, model predictions show a reasonable agreement for the whole range of investigated conditions. (orig.)

  18. Disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje en Tunja (Colombia: Comparación entre estudiantes y trabajadores con un modelo Logit mixto

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Gabriel Marquez Diaz

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Resumen: El estudio analiza la diferencia en la disposición a pagar de estudiantes y trabajadores por reducir el tiempo de viaje, en un contexto de elección de modo de transporte para la ciudad de Tunja (Colombia. Se utilizó un modelo logit mixto, calibrado con datos provenientes de una encuesta de preferencias declaradas. La especificación del modelo supuso la variación aleatoria de los coeficientes del tiempo de acceso, tiempo de espera y tiempo de viaje. Se encontró que la disposición a pagar por reducir el tiempo de viaje es de 38.14 $/min para estudiantes, siendo 23% mayor para trabajadores de menor ingreso y 73% mayor para los trabajadores de mayor ingreso. Se determinó que el valor del tiempo de espera es 1.95 veces mayor que el tiempo viaje, en tanto que el tiempo de acceso mantiene una relación de 1 a 2.57 con respecto al tiempo de viaje, la cual se considera válida únicamente para el contexto estudiado.

  19. A Lumped Thermal Model Including Thermal Coupling and Thermal Boundary Conditions for High Power IGBT Modules

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bahman, Amir Sajjad; Ma, Ke; Blaabjerg, Frede

    2018-01-01

    Detailed thermal dynamics of high power IGBT modules are important information for the reliability analysis and thermal design of power electronic systems. However, the existing thermal models have their limits to correctly predict these complicated thermal behavior in the IGBTs: The typically used...... thermal model based on one-dimensional RC lumps have limits to provide temperature distributions inside the device, moreover some variable factors in the real-field applications like the cooling and heating conditions of the converter cannot be adapted. On the other hand, the more advanced three......-dimensional thermal models based on Finite Element Method (FEM) need massive computations, which make the long-term thermal dynamics difficult to calculate. In this paper, a new lumped three-dimensional thermal model is proposed, which can be easily characterized from FEM simulations and can acquire the critical...

  20. Adiabatic perturbations in pre-big bang models: Matching conditions and scale invariance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durrer, Ruth; Vernizzi, Filippo

    2002-01-01

    At low energy, the four-dimensional effective action of the ekpyrotic model of the universe is equivalent to a slightly modified version of the pre-big bang model. We discuss cosmological perturbations in these models. In particular we address the issue of matching the perturbations from a collapsing to an expanding phase. We show that, under certain physically motivated and quite generic assumptions on the high energy corrections, one obtains n=0 for the spectrum of scalar perturbations in the original pre-big bang model (with a vanishing potential). With the same assumptions, when an exponential potential for the dilaton is included, a scale invariant spectrum (n=1) of adiabatic scalar perturbations is produced under very generic matching conditions, both in a modified pre-big bang and ekpyrotic scenario. We also derive the resulting spectrum for arbitrary power law scale factors matched to a radiation-dominated era