Demand-specific work ability, poor health and working conditions in middle-aged full-time employees.

Science.gov (United States)

Nabe-Nielsen, Kirsten; Thielen, Karsten; Nygaard, Else; Thorsen, Sannie Vester; Diderichsen, Finn

2014-07-01

We investigated the prevalence of reduced demand-specific work ability, its association with age, gender, education, poor health, and working conditions, and the interaction between poor health and working conditions regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. We used cross-sectional questionnaire data from 3381 full-time employees responding to questions about vocational education, job demands and social support (working conditions), musculoskeletal pain (MSP) and major depression (MD) (poor health) and seven questions about difficulty managing different job demands (reduced demand-specific work ability). Reduced demand-specific work ability varied from 9% to 19% among the 46-year old and from 11% to 21% among the 56-year old. Age was associated with two, gender with four, and education with all measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. MSP was associated with four and MD was associated with six measures of reduced demand-specific work ability. We found no interaction between working conditions and poor health regarding reduced demand-specific work ability. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Lighting Systems Control for Demand Response

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Husen, S.A.; Pandharipande, A.; Tolhuizen, L.M.G.; Wang, Y.; Zhao, M.

2012-01-01

Lighting is a major part of energy consumption in buildings. Lighting systems will thus be one of the important component systems of a smart grid for dynamic load management services like demand response.In the scenario considered in this paper, under a demand response request, lighting systems in a

Reducing Energy Demand Using Wheel-Individual Electric Drives to Substitute EPS-Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jürgen Römer

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The energy demand of vehicles is influenced, not only by the drive systems, but also by a number of add-on systems. Electric vehicles must satisfy this energy demand completely from the battery. Hence, the use of power steering systems directly result in a range reduction. The “e2-Lenk” joint project funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF involves a novel steering concept for electric vehicles to integrate the function of steering assistance into the drive-train. Specific distribution of driving torque at the steered axle allows the steering wheel torque to be influenced to support the steering force. This provides a potential for complete substitution of conventional power steering systems and reduces the vehicle’s energy demand. This paper shows the potential of wheel-individual drives influencing the driver’s steering torque using a control technique based on classical EPS control plans. Compared to conventional power-assisted steering systems, a reduced energy demand becomes evident over a wide range of operating conditions.

Price elasticity matrix of demand in power system considering demand response programs

Science.gov (United States)

Qu, Xinyao; Hui, Hongxun; Yang, Shengchun; Li, Yaping; Ding, Yi

2018-02-01

The increasing renewable energy power generations have brought more intermittency and volatility to the electric power system. Demand-side resources can improve the consumption of renewable energy by demand response (DR), which becomes one of the important means to improve the reliability of power system. In price-based DR, the sensitivity analysis of customer’s power demand to the changing electricity prices is pivotal for setting reasonable prices and forecasting loads of power system. This paper studies the price elasticity matrix of demand (PEMD). An improved PEMD model is proposed based on elasticity effect weight, which can unify the rigid loads and flexible loads. Moreover, the structure of PEMD, which is decided by price policies and load types, and the calculation method of PEMD are also proposed. Several cases are studied to prove the effectiveness of this method.

Small photovoltaic setup for the air conditioning system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Masiukiewicz Maciej

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The increasing interest in air conditioning systems for residential applications in Poland will certainly increase the demand for electricity during the summer period. Due to this fact a growing interest in solutions that help to lower the electricity consumption in this sector is observed. The problem of increased energy demand for air conditioning purposes can be solved by transfer the consumption of electricity from the grid system to renewable energy sources (RES. The greatest demand for cooling occurs during the biggest sunlight. This is the basis for the analysis of technical power system based on photovoltaic cells (PV to power the split type air conditioner. The object of the study was the commercial residential airconditioning inverter units with a capacity of 2.5kW. A network electricity production system for their own use with the possibility of buffering energy in batteries (OFF-GRID system. Currently, on the Polish market, there are no developed complete solutions dedicated to air conditioning systems based on PV. In Poland, solar energy is mainly used for heat production in solar collectors. The proposed solution will help to increase the popularity of PV systems in the Polish market as an alternative to other RES. The basic conclusion is that the amount of PV energy generated was sufficient to cover the daily energy requirement of the air conditioner.

Small photovoltaic setup for the air conditioning system

Science.gov (United States)

Masiukiewicz, Maciej

2017-10-01

The increasing interest in air conditioning systems for residential applications in Poland will certainly increase the demand for electricity during the summer period. Due to this fact a growing interest in solutions that help to lower the electricity consumption in this sector is observed. The problem of increased energy demand for air conditioning purposes can be solved by transfer the consumption of electricity from the grid system to renewable energy sources (RES). The greatest demand for cooling occurs during the biggest sunlight. This is the basis for the analysis of technical power system based on photovoltaic cells (PV) to power the split type air conditioner. The object of the study was the commercial residential airconditioning inverter units with a capacity of 2.5kW. A network electricity production system for their own use with the possibility of buffering energy in batteries (OFF-GRID system). Currently, on the Polish market, there are no developed complete solutions dedicated to air conditioning systems based on PV. In Poland, solar energy is mainly used for heat production in solar collectors. The proposed solution will help to increase the popularity of PV systems in the Polish market as an alternative to other RES. The basic conclusion is that the amount of PV energy generated was sufficient to cover the daily energy requirement of the air conditioner.

From conditions of equality to demands of justice

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartz, Emily; Nielsen, Carsten Fogh

2015-01-01

Equal freedom is the common starting point for most contractual theories of justice from Hobbes and Rousseau to Rawls. But while equal freedom defines a common starting point for these theories, this does not result in a general consensus on the conception of justice. On the contrary, different...... ways of conceptualizing the contractual starting point leads to different conceptions of the demands of justice. To fully understand the relationship between equal freedom and justice we therefore first need to explicate how and why the initial condition of equality is transformed into demands...... of justice. In this paper we discuss how this transformation takes place in the theories of Hobbes, Rousseau and Rawls, with particular emphasis on the vexed relationship between motivation and justification....

Fuzzy Stochastic Unit Commitment Model with Wind Power and Demand Response under Conditional Value-At-Risk Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiafu Yin

2018-02-01

Full Text Available With the increasing penetration of wind power and demand response integrated into the grid, the combined uncertainties from wind power and demand response have been a challenging concern for system operators. It is necessary to develop an approach to accommodate the combined uncertainties in the source side and load side. In this paper, the fuzzy stochastic conditional value-at-risk criterions are proposed as the risk measure of the combination of both wind power uncertainty and demand response uncertainty. To improve the computational tractability without sacrificing the accuracy, the fuzzy stochastic chance-constrained goal programming is proposed to transfer the fuzzy stochastic conditional value-at-risk to a deterministic equivalent. The operational risk of forecast error under fuzzy stochastic conditional value-at-risk assessment is represented by the shortage of reserve resource, which can be further divided into the load-shedding risk and the wind curtailment risk. To identify different priority levels for the different objective functions, the three-stage day-ahead unit commitment model is proposed through preemptive goal programming, in which the reliability requirement has the priority over the economic operation. Finally, a case simulation is performed on the IEEE 39-bus system to verify the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed model.

Evaluating Outdoor Water Use Demand under Changing Climatic and Demographic Conditions: An Agent-based Modeling Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Kanta, L.; Berglund, E. Z.; Soh, M. H.

2017-12-01

Outdoor water-use for landscape and irrigation constitutes a significant end-use in total residential water demand. In periods of water shortages, utilities may reduce garden demands by implementing irrigation system audits, rebate programs, local ordinances, and voluntary or mandatory water-use restrictions. Because utilities do not typically record outdoor and indoor water-uses separately, the effects of policies for reducing garden demands cannot be readily calculated. The volume of water required to meet garden demands depends on the housing density, lawn size, type of vegetation, climatic conditions, efficiency of garden irrigation systems, and consumer water-use behaviors. Many existing outdoor demand estimation methods are deterministic and do not include consumer responses to conservation campaigns. In addition, mandatory restrictions may have a substantial impact on reducing outdoor demands, but the effectiveness of mandatory restrictions depends on the timing and the frequency of restrictions, in addition to the distribution of housing density and consumer types within a community. This research investigates a garden end-use model by coupling an agent-based modeling approach and a mechanistic-stochastic water demand model to create a methodology for estimating garden demand and evaluating demand reduction policies. The garden demand model is developed for two water utilities, using a diverse data sets, including residential customer billing records, outdoor conservation programs, frequency and type of mandatory water-use restrictions, lot size distribution, population growth, and climatic data. A set of garden irrigation parameter values, which are based on the efficiency of irrigation systems and irrigation habits of consumers, are determined for a set of conservation ordinances and restrictions. The model parameters are then validated using customer water usage data from the participating water utilities. A sensitivity analysis is conducted for garden

Predicting the Effects of Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxes on Food and Beverage Demand in a Large Demand System

Science.gov (United States)

Zhen, Chen; Finkelstein, Eric A.; Nonnemaker, James; Karns, Shawn; Todd, Jessica E.

2013-01-01

A censored Exact Affine Stone Index incomplete demand system is estimated for 23 packaged foods and beverages and a numéraire good. Instrumental variables are used to control for endogenous prices. A half-cent per ounce increase in sugar-sweetened beverage prices is predicted to reduce total calories from the 23 foods and beverages but increase sodium and fat intakes as a result of product substitution. The predicted decline in calories is larger for low-income households than for high-income households, although welfare loss is also higher for low-income households. Neglecting price endogeneity or estimating a conditional demand model significantly overestimates the calorie reduction. PMID:24839299

Resolution of issues with renewable energy penetration in a long-range power system demand-supply planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogimoto, Kazuhiko; Ikeda, Yuichi; Kataoka, Kazuto; Ikegami, Takashi; Nonaka, Shunsuke; Azuma, Hitoshi

2012-01-01

Under the anticipated high penetration of variable renewable energy generation such as photovoltaic, the issue of supply demand balance should be evaluated and fixed. Technologies such as demand activation, and energy storage are expected to solve the issue. Under the situation, a long-range power system supply demand analysis should have the capability for the evaluation in its analysis steps of demand preparation, maintenance scheduling, and economic dispatch analysis. This paper presents results of a parametric analysis of the reduction of PV and Wind generation curtailment reduction by deployment of batteries. Based on a set of scenarios of the prospects of Japan's 10 power system demand-supply condition in 2030, the demand-supply balance capability are analyzed assuming PV and wind generation variation, demand activation and dispatchable batteries. (author)

Demand management through centralized control system using power line communication for existing buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Mulla, A.; ElSherbini, A.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • A pilot system was developed for demand management of equipment in buildings. • The networking was based on LonWorks platform and power line communication. • Demand strategies led to load reductions up to 74% and energy savings up to 25%. • The peak load reduction is expected to reach 3.44 GW by the year 2030. - Abstract: Managing peak demand efficiently is vital for maintaining uninterrupted supply of electrical power by utility providers. In this work, a pilot system was developed for managing and controlling the demand of major power consuming equipment in buildings from a central server, while relying mostly on existing infrastructure and maintaining consumer comfort. The system was successfully demonstrated on a selected group of buildings using the LonWorks networking platform. At the building level, the system utilized power line and twisted pair communication to control the thermostats of air-conditioning (A/C) units. The higher level communication was executed through extensible markup language (XML) and simple object access protocol (SOAP). The system provided control capabilities based on A/C unit priority, thermostat temperature, building type and geographic location. The development and execution of demand management strategies for selected buildings led to peak load reductions up to 74%, in addition to energy savings up to 25%. Implementing such a system at a national level in Kuwait is estimated to reduce peak demand by 3.44 GW, amounting to capital savings of $4.13 billion. The use of existing infrastructure reduced the cost and installation time of the system. Based on the successful testing of this pilot system, a larger-scale system is being developed

Are there differences between unconditional and conditional demand estimates? implications for future research and policy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hidayat Budi

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estimations of the demand for healthcare often rely on estimating the conditional probabilities of being ill. Such estimate poses several problems due to sample selectivity problems and an under-reporting of the incidence of illness. This study examines the effects of health insurance on healthcare demand in Indonesia, using samples that are both unconditional and conditional on being ill, and comparing the results. Methods The demand for outpatient care in three alternative providers was modeled using a multinomial logit regression for samples unconditional on being ill (N = 16485 and conditional on being ill (N = 5055. The ill sample was constructed from two measures of health status – activity of daily living impairments and severity of illness – derived from the second round of panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey. The recycling prediction method was used to predict the distribution of utilization rates based on having health insurance and income status, while holding all other variables constant. Results Both unconditional and conditional estimates yield similar results in terms of the direction of the most covariates. The magnitude effects of insurance on healthcare demand are about 7.5% (public providers and 20% (private providers higher for unconditional estimates than for conditional ones. Further, exogenous variables in the former estimates explain a higher variation of the model than that in the latter ones. Findings confirm that health insurance has a positive impact on the demand for healthcare, with the highest effect found among the lowest income group. Conclusion Conditional estimates do not suffer from statistical selection bias. Such estimates produce smaller demand effects for health insurance than unconditional ones do. Whether to rely on conditional or unconditional demand estimates depends on the purpose of study in question. Findings also demonstrate that health insurance programs

Sensitivity analysis of energy demands on performance of CCHP system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, C.Z.; Shi, Y.M.; Huang, X.H.

2008-01-01

Sensitivity analysis of energy demands is carried out in this paper to study their influence on performance of CCHP system. Energy demand is a very important and complex factor in the optimization model of CCHP system. Average, uncertainty and historical peaks are adopted to describe energy demands. The mix-integer nonlinear programming model (MINLP) which can reflect the three aspects of energy demands is established. Numerical studies are carried out based on energy demands of a hotel and a hospital. The influence of average, uncertainty and peaks of energy demands on optimal facility scheme and economic advantages of CCHP system are investigated. The optimization results show that the optimal GT's capacity and economy of CCHP system mainly lie on the average energy demands. Sum of capacities of GB and HE is equal to historical heating demand peaks, and sum of capacities of AR and ER are equal to historical cooling demand peaks. Maximum of PG is sensitive with historical peaks of energy demands and not influenced by uncertainty of energy demands, while the corresponding influence on DH is adverse

Dynamic inventory rationing strategies for inventory systems with two demand classes, Poisson demand and backordering

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Teunter, Ruud H.; Haneveld, Willem K. Klein

2008-01-01

We study inventory systems with two demand classes (critical and non-critical), Poisson demand and backordering. We analyze dynamic rationing strategies where the number of items reserved for critical demand depends on the remaining time until the next order arrives. Different from results in the

Demand-Side Flexibility for Energy Transitions: Ensuring the Competitive Development of Demand Response Options

OpenAIRE

Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François

2015-01-01

This report provides an overview of the current debates about demand response development, focusing primarily on Europe, with some comparisons to the United States. ‘Demand response’ includes strategies that involve end-use customers adapting or altering their electricity demand in response to grid conditions or market prices. It is viewed as a multi-purpose power-system resource that enhances the energy system’s capacity to cope with increasing demand, rising costs of conventional transmissi...

Modelling Per Capita Water Demand Change to Support System Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, M. E.; Islam, S.

2016-12-01

Water utilities have a number of levers to influence customer water usage. These include levers to proactively slow demand growth over time such as building and landscape codes as well as levers to decrease demands quickly in response to water stress including price increases, education campaigns, water restrictions, and incentive programs. Even actions aimed at short term reductions can result in long term water usage declines when substantial changes are made in water efficiency, as in incentives for fixture replacement or turf removal, or usage patterns such as permanent lawn watering restrictions. Demand change is therefore linked to hydrological conditions and to the effects of past management decisions - both typically included in water supply planning models. Yet, demand is typically incorporated exogenously using scenarios or endogenously using only price, though utilities also use rules and incentives issued in response to water stress and codes specifying standards for new construction to influence water usage. Explicitly including these policy levers in planning models enables concurrent testing of infrastructure and policy strategies and illuminates interactions between the two. The City of Las Vegas is used as a case study to develop and demonstrate this modeling approach. First, a statistical analysis of system data was employed to rule out alternate hypotheses of per capita demand decrease such as changes in population density and economic structure. Next, four demand sub-models were developed including one baseline model in which demand is a function of only price. The sub-models were then calibrated and tested using monthly data from 1997 to 2012. Finally, the best performing sub-model was integrated with a full supply and demand model. The results highlight the importance of both modeling water demand dynamics endogenously and taking a broader view of the variables influencing demand change.

Demonstrating demand response from water distribution system through pump scheduling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menke, Ruben; Abraham, Edo; Parpas, Panos; Stoianov, Ivan

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Water distribution systems can profitably provide demand response energy. • STOR and FFR are financially viable under a wide range of operating conditions. • Viability depends on the pump utilisation and peak price of the electricity tariff. • Total GHG emissions caused by the provision of reserve energy are <300 gCO_2/kW h. • These are lower than those from the major reserve energy provision technologies. - Abstract: Significant changes in the power generation mix are posing new challenges for the balancing systems of the grid. Many of these challenges are in the secondary electricity grid regulation services and could be met through demand response (DR) services. We explore the opportunities for a water distribution system (WDS) to provide balancing services with demand response through pump scheduling and evaluate the associated benefits. Using a benchmark network and demand response mechanisms available in the UK, these benefits are assessed in terms of reduced green house gas (GHG) emissions from the grid due to the displacement of more polluting power sources and additional revenues for water utilities. The optimal pump scheduling problem is formulated as a mixed-integer optimisation problem and solved using a branch and bound algorithm. This new formulation finds the optimal level of power capacity to commit to the provision of demand response for a range of reserve energy provision and frequency response schemes offered in the UK. For the first time we show that DR from WDS can offer financial benefits to WDS operators while providing response energy to the grid with less greenhouse gas emissions than competing reserve energy technologies. Using a Monte Carlo simulation based on data from 2014, we demonstrate that the cost of providing the storage energy is less than the financial compensation available for the equivalent energy supply. The GHG emissions from the demand response provision from a WDS are also shown to be smaller than

Supply risk under the condition of discontinuous demand in the field of nuclear power industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei Qiyan; Tian Zhilong

2006-01-01

Demands can be divided into two kinds: continuous and discontinuous demands. Based on the analysis of the results on common supply risk studies, discontinuous demand is studied concerning its definition, characteristics, and the more obvious and severe risks and consequences induced by its characteristics. Furthermore, the discontinuous characteristics and relevant precautions of demand of nuclear power industry are analyzed. Analysis and research on supply risks under the condition of discontinuous demand would be helpful to enterprises to take this issue serious and prevent the risks. (authors)

A theoretical model for oxygen transport in skeletal muscle under conditions of high oxygen demand.

Science.gov (United States)

McGuire, B J; Secomb, T W

2001-11-01

Oxygen transport from capillaries to exercising skeletal muscle is studied by use of a Krogh-type cylinder model. The goal is to predict oxygen consumption under conditions of high demand, on the basis of a consideration of transport processes occurring at the microvascular level. Effects of the decline in oxygen content of blood flowing along capillaries, intravascular resistance to oxygen diffusion, and myoglobin-facilitated diffusion are included. Parameter values are based on human skeletal muscle. The dependence of oxygen consumption on oxygen demand, perfusion, and capillary density are examined. When demand is moderate, the tissue is well oxygenated and consumption is slightly less than demand. When demand is high, capillary oxygen content declines rapidly with axial distance and radial oxygen transport is limited by diffusion resistance within the capillary and the tissue. Under these conditions, much of the tissue is hypoxic, consumption is substantially less than demand, and consumption is strongly dependent on capillary density. Predicted consumption rates are comparable with experimentally observed maximal rates of oxygen consumption.

Water and Climate Impacts on Power System Operations: The Importance of Cooling Systems and Demand Response Measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macknick, Jordan [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Zhou, Ella [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); O' Connell, Matthew [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Brinkman, Gregory [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Miara, Ariel [City College of New York, NY (United States); Ibanez, Eduardo [GE Energy Connections, Atlanta, GA (United States); Hummon, Marissa [Tendril, Denver, CO (United States)

2016-12-01

The U.S. electricity sector is highly dependent upon water resources; changes in water temperatures and water availability can affect operational costs and the reliability of power systems. Despite the importance of water for power system operations, the effects of changes in water characteristics on multiple generators in a system are generally not modeled. Moreover, demand response measures, which can change the magnitude and timing of loads and can have beneficial impacts on power system operations, have not yet been evaluated in the context of water-related power vulnerabilities. This effort provides a first comprehensive vulnerability and cost analysis of water-related impacts on a modeled power system and the potential for demand response measures to address vulnerability and cost concerns. This study uniquely combines outputs and inputs of a water and power plant system model, production cost, model, and relative capacity value model to look at variations in cooling systems, policy-related thermal curtailments, and demand response measures to characterize costs and vulnerability for a test system. Twenty-five scenarios over the course of one year are considered: a baseline scenario as well as a suite of scenarios to evaluate six cooling system combinations, the inclusion or exclusion of policy-related thermal curtailments, and the inclusion or exclusion of demand response measures. A water and power plant system model is utilized to identify changes in power plant efficiencies resulting from ambient conditions, a production cost model operating at an hourly scale is used to calculate generation technology dispatch and costs, and a relative capacity value model is used to evaluate expected loss of carrying capacity for the test system.

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CEREAL DEMAND IN MOROCCO USING THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sara Essaten

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Following up the agricultural policy in Morocco and enforcing it, the new strategy Green Morocco Plan (GMP launched in 2008 also stressed on the cereals’ supply. Meantime, despite their significant nutritional role, little attention has been paid to the demand side. This paper intends to perform an econometric analysis of the demand of five main cereals - Common wheat, Durum wheat, Barley, Corn and Rice- using a linear version of the flexible Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS model. A Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR approach has been applied to the demand system equations with annual data covering the period from 1980 to 2015. At the overall, regular econometric restrictions (stability, structural separability, validity, etc. have been respected our results suggest that the relations of complementarity or substitution are not determining in the cereal bundle in Morocco. Also, the Moroccan consumer behavior is characterized by a strong sensibility towards common wheat price’s changes and by a difficult access for the durum wheat as it is considered as luxury good.

Criteria for demand response systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lampropoulos, I.; Kling, W.L.; Bosch, van den P.P.J.; Ribeiro, P.F.; Berg, van den J.

2013-01-01

The topic of demand side management is currently becoming more important than ever, in parallel with the further deregulation of the electricity sector, and the increasing integration of renewable energy sources. A historical review of automation integration in power system control assists in

Joint Planning Of Energy Storage and Transmission Considering Wind-Storage Combined System and Demand Side Response

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Y.; Liu, B. Z.; Wang, K. Y.; Ai, X.

2017-12-01

In response to the new requirements of the operation mode of wind-storage combined system and demand side response for transmission network planning, this paper presents a joint planning of energy storage and transmission considering wind-storage combined system and demand side response. Firstly, the charge-discharge strategy of energy storage system equipped at the outlet of wind farm and demand side response strategy are analysed to achieve the best comprehensive benefits through the coordination of the two. Secondly, in the general transmission network planning model with wind power, both energy storage cost and demand side response cost are added to the objective function. Not only energy storage operation constraints and but also demand side response constraints are introduced into the constraint condition. Based on the classical formulation of TEP, a new formulation is developed considering the simultaneous addition of the charge-discharge strategy of energy storage system equipped at the outlet of the wind farm and demand side response strategy, which belongs to a typical mixed integer linear programming model that can be solved by mature optimization software. The case study based on the Garver-6 bus system shows that the validity of the proposed model is verified by comparison with general transmission network planning model. Furthermore, the results demonstrate that the joint planning model can gain more economic benefits through setting up different cases.

Projected Demand and Potential Impacts to the National Airspace System of Autonomous, Electric, On-Demand Small Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jeremy C.; Viken, Jeffrey K.; Guerreiro, Nelson M.; Dollyhigh, Samuel M.; Fenbert, James W.; Hartman, Christopher L.; Kwa, Teck-Seng; Moore, Mark D.

2012-01-01

Electric propulsion and autonomy are technology frontiers that offer tremendous potential to achieve low operating costs for small-aircraft. Such technologies enable simple and safe to operate vehicles that could dramatically improve regional transportation accessibility and speed through point-to-point operations. This analysis develops an understanding of the potential traffic volume and National Airspace System (NAS) capacity for small on-demand aircraft operations. Future demand projections use the Transportation Systems Analysis Model (TSAM), a tool suite developed by NASA and the Transportation Laboratory of Virginia Polytechnic Institute. Demand projections from TSAM contain the mode of travel, number of trips and geographic distribution of trips. For this study, the mode of travel can be commercial aircraft, automobile and on-demand aircraft. NASA's Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES) is used to assess NAS impact. This simulation takes a schedule that includes all flights: commercial passenger and cargo; conventional General Aviation and on-demand small aircraft, and operates them in the simulated NAS. The results of this analysis projects very large trip numbers for an on-demand air transportation system competitive with automobiles in cost per passenger mile. The significance is this type of air transportation can enhance mobility for communities that currently lack access to commercial air transportation. Another significant finding is that the large numbers of operations can have an impact on the current NAS infrastructure used by commercial airlines and cargo operators, even if on-demand traffic does not use the 28 airports in the Continental U.S. designated as large hubs by the FAA. Some smaller airports will experience greater demand than their current capacity allows and will require upgrading. In addition, in future years as demand grows and vehicle performance improves other non-conventional facilities such as short runways incorporated into

Urban fuel demand in Ethiopia: an almost‐ideal demand system ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper investigates the opportunities for reducing the pressure of urban centers on rural forest areas, using a dataset of 350 urban households in Tigrai in northern Ethiopia. We applied an almost‐ideal demand system to fuels. The results suggest that reducing the pressure of urban centers on local forests cannot be ...

Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach

OpenAIRE

Muminova, Adiba

2015-01-01

This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...

A stochastic method for battery sizing with uninterruptible-power and demand shift capabilities in PV (photovoltaic) systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan, Chee Wei; Green, Tim C.; Hernandez-Aramburo, Carlos A.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic simulation using Monte Carlo technique to size a battery to meet dual objectives of demand shift at peak electricity cost times and outage protection in BIPV (building integrated photovoltaic) systems. Both functions require battery storage and the sizing of battery using numerical optimization is popularly used. However, the weather conditions, outage events and demand peaks are not deterministic in nature. Therefore, the sizing of battery storage capacity should also be based on a probabilistic approach. The Monte Carlo simulation is a rigorous method to sizing BIPV system as it takes into account a real building load profiles, the weather information and the local historical outage distribution. The simulation is split into seasonal basis for the analysis of demand shifting and outage events in order to match the seasonal weather conditions and load profiles. Five configurations of PV (photovoltaic) are assessed that cover different areas and orientations. The simulation output includes the predicted PV energy yield, the amount of energy required for demand management and outage event. Therefore, consumers can base sizing decisions on the historical data and local risk of outage statistics and the success rate of meeting the demand shift required. Finally, the economic evaluations together with the sensitivity analysis and the assessment of customers' outage cost are discussed.

Modeling global residential sector energy demand for heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isaac, Morna; Vuuren, Detlef P. van

2009-01-01

In this article, we assess the potential development of energy use for future residential heating and air conditioning in the context of climate change. In a reference scenario, global energy demand for heating is projected to increase until 2030 and then stabilize. In contrast, energy demand for air conditioning is projected to increase rapidly over the whole 2000-2100 period, mostly driven by income growth. The associated CO 2 emissions for both heating and cooling increase from 0.8 Gt C in 2000 to 2.2 Gt C in 2100, i.e. about 12% of total CO 2 emissions from energy use (the strongest increase occurs in Asia). The net effect of climate change on global energy use and emissions is relatively small as decreases in heating are compensated for by increases in cooling. However, impacts on heating and cooling individually are considerable in this scenario, with heating energy demand decreased by 34% worldwide by 2100 as a result of climate change, and air-conditioning energy demand increased by 72%. At the regional scale considerable impacts can be seen, particularly in South Asia, where energy demand for residential air conditioning could increase by around 50% due to climate change, compared with the situation without climate change

Optimal supply and demand investments in municipal energy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rolfsman, Bjoern

2004-01-01

In many municipalities, there are district heating networks, which are quite commonly supplied by combined heat and power plants (CHP). A district heating network contains buildings of different types. In this paper, one such municipal energy system is analysed. In order to provide space heating and domestic hot water, investments could be made on the supply side in power plants, or on the demand side in the buildings, for example in the form of extra wall insulation. The electricity from the CHP plants is supplied to the municipality but can also be sold to the electricity market, and electricity can, of course, also be bought from the market. The variation in price on the spot market over any given day is significant. The need for district heat in the building stock also varies, for example due to climatic conditions. The energy system in the case study is analysed with a mixed integer linear programming model. The model has 3 h time steps in order to reflect diurnal variations, and an entire year is analysed. A case study is presented for the city of Linkoeping in Sweden. On the demand side, the options are: extra wall insulation, extra attic insulation and better types of windows. The building stock is divided into nine categories

Demand for Money: View in Terms of Macroeconomics and Ukrainian Bank System

OpenAIRE

Kateryna Anufriyeva

2014-01-01

The article analyses the components and factors of money demand in Ukrainian financial, and, particularly, bank market conditions; such type of money demand as demand for hard currencies has been distinguished in a highly "dollarized" economy. The emphasis lays on the necessity of exploiting of the complex toolkit for money demand dynamics regulation considering macroeconomic and financial market indicators.

Time-of-use based electricity demand response for sustainable manufacturing systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, Yong; Li, Lin

2013-01-01

As required by the Energy Policy Act of 2005, utility companies across the U.S. are offering TOU (time-of-use) based electricity demand response programs. The TOU rate gives consumers opportunities to manage their electricity bill by shifting use from on-peak periods to mid-peak and off-peak periods. Reducing the amount of electricity needed during the peak load times makes it possible for the power grid to meet consumers' needs without building more costly backup infrastructures and help reduce GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. Previous research on the applications of TOU and other electricity demand response programs has been mainly focused on residential and commercial buildings while largely neglected industrial manufacturing systems. This paper proposes a systems approach for TOU based electricity demand response for sustainable manufacturing systems under the production target constraint. Key features of this approach include: (i) the electricity related costs including both consumption and demand are integrated into production system modeling; (ii) energy-efficient and demand-responsive production scheduling problems are formulated and the solution technique is provided; and (iii) the effects of various factors on the near-optimal scheduling solutions are examined. The research outcome is expected to enhance the energy efficiency, electricity demand responsiveness, and cost effectiveness of modern manufacturing systems. - Highlights: • We propose a TOU based demand response approach for manufacturing systems. • Both electricity consumption and demand are integrated into the system modeling. • Energy-efficient and demand-responsive production scheduling problems are formulated. • The meta-heuristic solution technique is provided. • The effects of various factors on the scheduling solutions are examined

Demand Response With Micro-CHP Systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Houwing, M.; Negenborn, R.R.; De Schutter, B.

2011-01-01

With the increasing application of distributed energy resources and novel information technologies in the electricity infrastructure, innovative possibilities to incorporate the demand side more actively in power system operation are enabled. A promising, controllable, residential distributed

Demand-Based Optimal Design of Storage Tank with Inerter System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shiming Zhang

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A parameter optimal design method for a tank with an inerter system is proposed in this study based on the requirements of tank vibration control to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of vibration control. Moreover, a response indicator and a cost control indicator are selected based on the control targets for liquid storage tanks for simultaneously minimizing the dynamic response and controlling costs. These indicators are reformulated through a random vibration analysis under virtual excitation. The problem is then transformed from a multiobjective optimization problem to a single-objective nonlinear problem using the ε-constraint method, which is consistent with the demand-based method. White noise excitation can be used to design the tank with the inerter system under seismic excitation to simplify the calculation. Subsequently, a MATLAB-based calculation program is compiled, and several optimization cases are examined under different excitation conditions. The effectiveness of the demand-based method is proven through a time history analysis. The results show that specific vibration control requirements can be met at the lowest cost with a simultaneous reduction in base shears and overturning base moments.

Predictive Uncertainty Estimation in Water Demand Forecasting Using the Model Conditional Processor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amos O. Anele

2018-04-01

Full Text Available In a previous paper, a number of potential models for short-term water demand (STWD prediction have been analysed to find the ones with the best fit. The results obtained in Anele et al. (2017 showed that hybrid models may be considered as the accurate and appropriate forecasting models for STWD prediction. However, such best single valued forecast does not guarantee reliable and robust decisions, which can be properly obtained via model uncertainty processors (MUPs. MUPs provide an estimate of the full predictive densities and not only the single valued expected prediction. Amongst other MUPs, the purpose of this paper is to use the multi-variate version of the model conditional processor (MCP, proposed by Todini (2008, to demonstrate how the estimation of the predictive probability conditional to a number of relatively good predictive models may improve our knowledge, thus reducing the predictive uncertainty (PU when forecasting into the unknown future. Through the MCP approach, the probability distribution of the future water demand can be assessed depending on the forecast provided by one or more deterministic forecasting models. Based on an average weekly data of 168 h, the probability density of the future demand is built conditional on three models’ predictions, namely the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA, feed-forward back propagation neural network (FFBP-NN and hybrid model (i.e., combined forecast from ARMA and FFBP-NN. The results obtained show that MCP may be effectively used for real-time STWD prediction since it brings out the PU connected to its forecast, and such information could help water utilities estimate the risk connected to a decision.

Managing Sustainable Demand-side Infrastructure for Power System Ancillary Services

Science.gov (United States)

Parkinson, Simon Christopher

Widespread access to renewable electricity is seen as a viable method to mitigate carbon emissions, although problematic are the issues associated with the integration of the generation systems within current power system configurations. Wind power plants are the primary large-scale renewable generation technology applied globally, but display considerable short-term supply variability that is difficult to predict. Power systems are currently not designed to operate under these conditions, and results in the need to increase operating reserve in order to guarantee stability. Often, operating conventional generation as reserve is both technically and economically inefficient, which can overshadow positive benefits associated with renewable energy exploitation. The purpose of this thesis is to introduce and assess an alternative method of enhancing power system operations through the control of electric loads. In particular, this thesis focuses on managing highly-distributed sustainable demand-side infrastructure, in the form of heat pumps, electric vehicles, and electrolyzers, as dispatchable short-term energy balancing resources. The main contribution of the thesis is an optimal control strategy capable of simultaneously balancing grid- and demand-side objectives. The viability of the load control strategy is assessed through model-based simulations that explicitly track end-use functionality of responsive devices within a power systems analysis typically implemented to observe the effects of integrated wind energy systems. Results indicate that there is great potential for the proposed method to displace the need for increased reserve capacity in systems considering a high penetration of wind energy, thereby allowing conventional generation to operate more efficiently and avoid the need for possible capacity expansions.

Community Colleges and Labor Market Conditions: How Does Enrollment Demand Change Relative to Local Unemployment Rates?

Science.gov (United States)

Hillman, Nicholas W.; Orians, Erica Lee

2013-01-01

This study uses fixed-effects panel data techniques to estimate the elasticity of community college enrollment demand relative to local unemployment rates. The findings suggest that community college enrollment demand is counter-cyclical to changes in the labor market, as enrollments rise during periods of weak economic conditions. Using national…

The Demand for Divisia Money in the United States: A Dynamic Flexible Demand System.

OpenAIRE

Serletis, Apostolos

1991-01-01

This paper applies the Anderson and Blundell (1982) approach to the analysis of the demand for money and attempts to establish the nature of the relationship between Divisia money, defined from narrow to broad, and the "nested like assets" at different levels of aggregation. This is achieved by conducting the analysis within a microtheoretical framework--utilizing the demand system approach--and by estimating a sequence of nested dynamic specifications and performing tests of the nested struc...

DESIGN OF WATER-COOLED PACKAGED AIR-CONDITIONING SYSTEMS BASED ON RELIABILITY ASSESSMENT

OpenAIRE

関口, 圭輔; 中尾, 正喜; 藁谷, 至誠; 植草, 常雄; 羽山, 広文

2007-01-01

Water-cooled packaged air-conditioning systems are reevaluated in terms of alleviating the heat island phenomenon in cities and effectively utilizing building rooftops. Up to now, such reliability assessment has been insufficient, and this has limited the use of this kind of air-conditioning system in the information and communications sectors that demand a high reliability. This work has led to the development of a model for evaluating the reliability of water-cooled package air-conditioning...

Delivering Training for Highly Demanding Information Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Norton, Andrew Lawrence; Coulson-Thomas, Yvette May; Coulson-Thomas, Colin Joseph; Ashurst, Colin

2012-01-01

Purpose: There is a lack of research covering the training requirements of organisations implementing highly demanding information systems (HDISs). The aim of this paper is to help in the understanding of appropriate training requirements for such systems. Design/methodology/approach: This research investigates the training delivery within a…

A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

Science.gov (United States)

Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

2017-12-01

The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

An analytical approach to activating demand elasticity with a demand response mechanism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clastres, Cedric; Khalfallah, Haikel

2015-01-01

The aim of this work is to demonstrate analytically the conditions under which activating the elasticity of consumer demand could benefit social welfare. We have developed an analytical equilibrium model to quantify the effect of deploying demand response on social welfare and energy trade. The novelty of this research is that it demonstrates the existence of an optimal area for the price signal in which demand response enhances social welfare. This optimal area is negatively correlated to the degree of competitiveness of generation technologies and the market size of the system. In particular, it should be noted that the value of un-served energy or energy reduction which the producers could lose from such a demand response scheme would limit its effectiveness. This constraint is even greater if energy trade between countries is limited. Finally, we have demonstrated scope for more aggressive demand response, when only considering the impact in terms of consumer surplus. (authors)

The relationship among customer demand, competitive strategy and manufacturing system functional objectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Xu

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To ascertain the relationship between the operation system function goal decision making and customer demand and competition strategy, can better discover and integrate all available resources (including important capital resources to achieve business opportunities, the establishment of sustainable competitive ability. Because, to achieve business development lead policymakers take great uncertainty, which led to the investment behavior required for the operational activities of resources also bear the enormous risks. Design/methodology/approach: Through principal component analysis on the data collected by questionnaires, the manuscript obtains dominant factors for customer demand, competitive strategy and manufacturing system functional objectives respectively. By these factors, it tests its three hypotheses with the data from northeast of China and draws some conclusions. Findings: The results show that customer demand have a significant positive effect on competitive strategy; competitive strategy have positive influence on manufacturing system functional objectives; customer demand affect the functional objectives, by competitive strategy. Research limitations/implications: In this research, competitive strategy and manufacturing system functional objectives are influenced by customer demand. The conclusion of the research can provide theoretical guidance for Chinese enterprises which carry out manufacturing system functional objectives. Originality/value: In this research, a new measure questionnaire of competition strategy, customer satisfaction and operating system function goal was used, analyzed the influence factors of time, quality, cost, efficiency, service and environment, on the operation of the system. The study shows that the effect of competition strategy and customer demand has a direct impact on the operating system functions, customer demand through competitive strategy of indirect effects operating system functions.

Willingness to pay and price elasticities of demand for energy-efficient appliances: Combining the hedonic approach and demand systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Galarraga, Ibon, E-mail: ibon.galarraga@bc3research.org; Gonzalez-Eguino, Mikel, E-mail: mikel.gonzalez@bc3research.org; Markandya, Anil, E-mail: anil.markandya@bc3research.org

2011-12-15

This article proposes a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for the attributes represented by energy efficiency labels and providing reliable price elasticities of demand (own and cross) for close substitutes (e.g. those with low energy efficiency and those with higher energy efficiency). This is done by using the results of the hedonic approach together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. The elasticity results obtained with the latter are then compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain: it is found that 15.6% of the final price is actually paid for the energy efficiency attribute. This accounts for about Euro 80 of the average market price. The elasticity results confirm that energy efficient appliances are more price elastic than regular ones. - Highlights: > The article shows a combined approach for estimating willingness to pay for energy efficiency labels and price elasticities. > The results of the hedonic approach is used together with the Quantity Based Demand System (QBDS) model. > The elasticity results are compared with those simulated using the Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LA/AIDS). > The methodology is applied to the dishwasher market in Spain.

Demand response power system optimization in presence of renewable energy sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dumbrava Virgil

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper optimizes the price-based demand response of a large customer in a power system with stochastic production and classical fuel-supplied power plants. The implemented method of optimization, under uncertainty, is helpful to model both the utility functions for the consumers and their technical limitations. The consumers exposed to price-based demand can reduce their cost for electricity procurement by modifying their behavior, possibly shifting their consumption during the day to periods with low electricity prices. The demand is considered elastic to electricity price if the consumer is willing and capable to buy various amounts of energy at different price levels, the demand function being represented as purchasing bidding blocks. The demand response is seen also by the scientific literature as a possible source of the needed flexibility of modern power systems, while the flexibility of conventional generation technologies is restricted by technical constraints, such as ramp rates. This paper shows how wind power generation affects short term operation of the electricity system. Fluctuations in the amount of wind power fed into the grid require, without storage capacities, compensating changes in the output of flexible generators or in the consumers’ behavior. In the presented case study, we show the minimization of the overall costs in presence of stochastic wind power production. For highlighting the variability degree of production from renewable sources, four scenarios of production were formulated, with different probabilities of occurrence. The contribution brought by the paper is represented by the optimization model for demand-response of a large customer in a power system with fossil fueled generators and intermittent renewable energy sources. The consumer can reduce the power system costs by modifying his demand. The demand function is represented as purchasing bidding blocks for the possible price forecasted realizations

Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Inglesi, Roula

2010-01-01

In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

Aggregate electricity demand in South Africa: Conditional forecasts to 2030

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Inglesi, Roula [Department of Economics, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of Pretoria, Main Campus, Pretoria 0002 (South Africa)

2010-01-15

In 2008, South Africa experienced a severe electricity crisis. Domestic and industrial electricity users had to suffer from black outs all over the country. It is argued that partially the reason was the lack of research on energy, locally. However, Eskom argues that the lack of capacity can only be solved by building new power plants. The objective of this study is to specify the variables that explain the electricity demand in South Africa and to forecast electricity demand by creating a model using the Engle-Granger methodology for co-integration and Error Correction models. By producing reliable results, this study will make a significant contribution that will improve the status quo of energy research in South Africa. The findings indicate that there is a long run relationship between electricity consumption and price as well as economic growth/income. The last few years in South Africa, price elasticity was rarely taken into account because of the low and decreasing prices in the past. The short-run dynamics of the system are affected by population growth, too After the energy crisis, Eskom, the national electricity supplier, is in search for substantial funding in order to build new power plants that will help with the envisaged lack of capacity that the company experienced. By using two scenarios for the future of growth, this study shows that the electricity demand will drop substantially due to the price policies agreed - until now - by Eskom and the National Energy Regulator South Africa (NERSA) that will affect the demand for some years. (author)

The best-mix of power demand and supply. Energy system integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

2012-01-01

In September 2012 after nationwide discussions, Energy and Environmental Council decided 'Innovative Strategy for Energy and the Environment': (1) Realization of a society not dependent on nuclear power, (2) Realization of green energy revolution, (3) For ensuring stable supply of energy, (4) Bold implementation of reform of electricity power systems and (5) Steady implementation of global warming countermeasures. Energy problem should be considered as supply and demand of whole energy. However, long-term energy problem such as in 2050 should assume global limits of fossil fuel supply and carbon dioxide emission and then in order to realize sustainable demand and supply of energy, maximum deployment of renewable energy power in primary energy and most practicable electrification of final demand for energy conservation should be implemented. Best mix of power and energy demand and supply would be significant to some extent. This article outlined analysis of power demand and supply in a long term, future power technologies and demand side management, and problems of power system operation and their solution, and then described energy system integration to realize power and energy/society best mix. (T. Tanaka)

Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong, S.

2000-01-01

Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

Information system design for demand-driven supply networks

OpenAIRE

Selk, Bernhard

2004-01-01

Information system design for demand-driven supply networks : integrating CRM & SCM / B. Selk, K. Turowski, C. Winnewisser. - In: EIS : Fourth International ICSC Symposium on Engineering of Intelligent Systems, EIS 2004. [Elektronische Ressource]. - Millet, Alberta : ICSC Interdisciplinary Research Canada, 2004. - 8 S. auf CD-ROM

PERFECT DEMAND ILLUSION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander Yu. Sulimov

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to technique «Perfect demand illusion», which allows to strengthen the competitive advantageof retailers. Also in the paper spells out the golden rules of visual merchandising.The definition of the method «Demand illusion», formulated the conditions of its functioning, and is determined by the mainhypothesis of the existence of this method.Furthermore, given the definition of the «Perfect demand illusion», and describes its additional conditions. Also spells out the advantages of the «Perfect demandillusion», before the «Demand illusion».

Design of stationary PEFC system configurations to meet heat and power demands

Science.gov (United States)

Wallmark, Cecilia; Alvfors, Per

This paper presents heat and power efficiencies of a modeled PEFC system and the methods used to create the system configuration. The paper also includes an example of a simulated fuel cell system supplying a building in Sweden with heat and power. The main method used to create an applicable fuel cell system configuration is pinch technology. This technology is used to evaluate and design a heat exchanger network for a PEFC system working under stationary conditions, in order to find a solution with high heat utilization. The heat exchanger network in the system connecting the reformer, the burner, gas cleaning, hot-water storage and the PEFC stack will affect the heat transferred to the hot-water storage and thereby the heating of the building. The fuel, natural gas, is reformed to a hydrogen-rich gas within a slightly pressurized system. The fuel processor investigated is steam reforming, followed by high- and low-temperature shift reactors and preferential oxidation. The system is connected to the electrical grid for backup and peak demands and to a hot-water storage to meet the varying heat demand for the building. The procedure for designing the fuel cell system installation as co-generation system is described, and the system is simulated for a specific building in Sweden during 1 year. The results show that the fuel cell system in combination with a burner and hot-water storage could supply the building with the required heat without exceeding any of the given limitations. The designed co-generation system will provide the building with most of its power requirements and would further generate income by sale of electricity to the power grid.

A multifunctional multimaterial system for on-demand protein release.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuncaboylu, Deniz Ceylan; Friess, Fabian; Wischke, Christian; Lendlein, Andreas

2018-06-15

In order to provide best control of the regeneration process for each individual patient, the release of protein drugs administered during surgery may need to be timely adapted and/or delayed according to the progress of healing/regeneration. This study aims to establish a multifunctional implant system for a local on-demand release, which is applicable for various types of proteins. It was hypothesized that a tubular multimaterial container kit, which hosts the protein of interest as a solution or gel formulation, would enable on-demand release if equipped with the capacity of diameter reduction upon external stimulation. Using devices from poly(ɛ-caprolactone) networks, it could be demonstrated that a shape-memory effect activated by heat or NIR light enabled on-demand tube shrinkage. The decrease of diameter of these shape-memory tubes (SMT) allowed expelling the payload as demonstrated for several proteins including SDF-1α, a therapeutically relevant chemotactic protein, to achieve e.g. continuous release with a triggered add-on dosing (open tube) or an on-demand onset of bolus or sustained release (sealed tube). Considering the clinical relevance of protein factors in (stem) cell attraction to lesions and the progress in monitoring biomarkers in body fluids, such on-demand release systems may be further explored e.g. in heart, nerve, or bone regeneration in the future. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Energy Systems Scenario Modelling and Long Term Forecasting of Hourly Electricity Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Alberg Østergaard, Poul; Møller Andersen, Frits; Kwon, Pil Seok

2015-01-01

. The results show that even with a limited short term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrate wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant...... or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model...... effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps...

Association between perceived present working conditions and demands versus attitude to early retirement among construction workers.

Science.gov (United States)

Jebens, Einar; Medbø, Jon I; Knutsen, Oddvar; Mamen, Asgeir; Veiersted, Kaj Bo

2014-01-01

Early retirement is an increasing problem in the construction industry. There is limited information about causes leading employees to leave working life early. We have compared construction workers present situation with their perception of future demands at work to avoid early retirement. All 87 employees in a medium-sized Norwegian construction company participated in the study. All were men and answered questionnaires on health and pain, work ability, mechanical exposure, psychosocial conditions, and demands regarding future working conditions. Most workers showed good work ability, irrespective of age. Many reported high levels of mechanical exposure at work. The level of musculoskeletal pain was higher in the middle-aged (30-50 year old) age groups and seniors aged over 50 years than among the youngest workers less than 30 years of age. All workers reported that good health was important for continued working. Most workers stated that future work must not be too physically demanding. Many workers reported relatively low job satisfaction; consequently an interesting job was rated as important for continuing work. Good social conditions were a high priority. According to the examined construction workers, good health and reduced levels of mechanical exposure at work are essential to avoid early retirement.

Demands for Space Transportation Systems for the next 30 years

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Demands for Space Transportation Systems for the next 30 years. Meeting the in-house and commercial launch demand for Communication and Remote Sensing spacecraft. Payload capability enhancement for expendable launch vehicles to meet the national needs.

Application of battery-based storage systems in household-demand smoothening in electricity-distribution grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purvins, Arturs; Papaioannou, Ioulia T.; Debarberis, Luigi

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Battery system application in demand smoothening in distribution grids is analysed. ► Five European countries are studied with and without high photovoltaic deployment. ► A sensitivity analysis for different battery system parameters is performed. ► A simple battery system management is sufficient for low demand smoothening. ► More elaborate management is required for high demand smoothening. - Abstract: This article analyses in technical terms the application of battery-based storage systems for household-demand smoothening in electricity-distribution grids. The analysis includes case studies of Denmark, Portugal, Greece, France and Italy. A high penetration of photovoltaic systems in distribution grids is considered as an additional scenario. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to examine the smoothening effect of daily demand profiles for different configurations of the battery system. In general, battery-storage systems with low rated power and low battery capacity can smooth the demand sufficiently with the aid of a simple management process. For example, with 1 kW of peak demand, a 30–45% decrease in the variability of the daily demand profile can be achieved with a battery system of 0.1 kW rated power and up to 0.6 kW h battery capacity. However, further smoothening requires higher battery-system capacity and power. In this case, more elaborate management is also needed to use the battery system efficiently.

Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ma, Tao; Ji, Jie; Chen, Ming-qi

2010-01-01

Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R and D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply. (author)

Domestic and outbound tourism demand in Australia: a System-of-Equations Approach

OpenAIRE

George Athanasopoulos; Minfeng Deng; Gang Li; Haiyan Song

2013-01-01

This study uses a system-of-equations approach to model the substitution relationship between Australian domestic and outbound tourism demand. A new price variable based on relative ratios of purchasing power parity index is developed for the substitution analysis. Short-run demand elasticities are calculated based on the estimated dynamic almost ideal demand system. The empirical results reveal significant substitution relationships between Australian domestic tourism and outbound travel to ...

Demand Response Load Following of Source and Load Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Jianqiang; Cao, Jinde; Yong, Taiyou

2017-01-01

This paper presents a demand response load following strategy for an interconnected source and load system, in which we utilize traditional units and population of cooling thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs) to follow the mismatched power caused by the load activities and the renewable power...... injection in real time. In the demand side of power systems, these TCLs are often affiliated to a bus load agent and can be aggregated to multiple TCL aggregators. Firstly, aggregate evaluation of the TCL aggregator is carried out based on a bilinear aggregate model so as to derive the available regulation...

OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development) oil demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huntington, H.G.

1993-01-01

Econometric response surfaces for nine different world oil models are estimated for aggregate oil demand with in the developed countries of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The estimates are based upon scenario results reported for the 1989-2010 period in a recent model comparison study. The response surface approach provides a parsimonious summary of model responses. It enables one to estimate long-run price elasticities directly rather than to infer such responses from 20-year cross-scenario results. It also shows more directly the significant effect of initial demand conditions (in 1988) on future oil demand growth. Due to the dynamic nature of the oil demand response, past prices exert a strongly positive effect on future oil demands in some models, but little or even negative effect in other models. On the basis of this finding, we urge demand modellers to be much more explicit about what their systems reveal about the extent of disequilibrium embedded in their model's starting oil demand conditions. (author)

Using imperfect advance demand information in lost-sales inventory systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Topan, E.; Tan, T.; van Houtum, G.J.J.A.N.; Dekker, Rommert

Motivated by real-life applications, we consider an inventory system where it is possible to collect information about the quantity and timing of future demand in advance. However, this advance demand information (ADI) is imperfect because (i) it may turn out to be false, (ii) a time interval is

Nodal price volatility reduction and reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goel, L.; Wu, Qiuwei; Wang, Peng

2008-01-01

With the development of restructured power systems, the conventional 'same for all customers' electricity price is getting replaced by nodal prices. Electricity prices will fluctuate with time and nodes. In restructured power systems, electricity demands will interact mutually with prices. Customers may shift some of their electricity consumption from time slots of high electricity prices to those of low electricity prices if there is a commensurate price incentive. The demand side load shift will influence nodal prices in return. This interaction between demand and price can be depicted using demand-price elasticity. This paper proposes an evaluation technique incorporating the impact of the demand-price elasticity on nodal prices, system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. In this technique, demand and price correlations are represented using the demand-price elasticity matrix which consists of self/cross-elasticity coefficients. Nodal prices are determined using optimal power flow (OPF). The OPF and customer damage functions (CDFs) are combined in the proposed reliability evaluation technique to assess the reliability enhancement of restructured power systems considering demand-price elasticity. The IEEE reliability test system (RTS) is simulated to illustrate the developed techniques. The simulation results show that demand-price elasticity reduces the nodal price volatility and improves both the system reliability and nodal reliabilities of restructured power systems. Demand-price elasticity can therefore be utilized as a possible efficient tool to reduce price volatility and to enhance the reliability of restructured power systems. (author)

USING ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM TO ANALYZE DEMAND FOR SHRIMP IN US FOOD MARKET

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xia “Vivian” Zhou

2015-07-01

Full Text Available This paper analyzes the demand for shrimp along with beef, pork, and chicken in the US food market, which contributes much to predicting supply strategies, consumer preferences and policy making. It focuses on the own and cross elasticity relationship between the expenditure share, price, and expenditure changes. An Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDs model and two alternative specifications (both nonlinear AIDs and LA-AIDs are used to estimate a system of expenditure share equations for ocean shrimp, penaeid shrimp, beef, pork, and chicken. Empirical results from nonlinear AIDs model is compared with those from LA-AIDs model. There are quite a few inconsistency between nonlinear and LA results. Results from nonlinear are more expected and more complied with microeconomic theory than those from LA. Also, results indicated that some insignificant slope coefficients and inappropriate signs of them did not comply with microeconomic theory. This could be caused by heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation, a limitation in the data used, or shrimp is a quite different commodity.

Examining the relationship between psychosocial working conditions, physical work demands, and leisure time physical activity in Canada.

Science.gov (United States)

Morassaei, Sara; Smith, Peter M

2011-10-01

To examine the effects of psychosocial working conditions and physical work demands on leisure time physical activity (LTPA). Using path analysis, direct and indirect effects of self-reported working conditions on LTPA levels were assessed in a representative sample of 4167 workers from the 2000 to 2001 Canadian National Population Health Survey. Higher levels of skill discretion and decision latitude were associated with higher LTPA. Physical work demands had opposite effects among men versus women, and skill discretion had a stronger effect among women than among men. Job security had a stronger effect on older workers and those without children younger than 13 years. The results support the influence of the work environment on LTPA and suggest that certain work conditions should be targeted in future interventions seeking to impact participation in physical activity.

Fuel switching in Harare : An almost ideal demand system approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chambwera, Muyeye; Folmer, Henk

In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey

Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chambwera, M.; Folmer, H.

2007-01-01

In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey

Demand and choice probability generating functions for perturbed consumers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel

2011-01-01

This paper considers demand systems for utility-maximizing consumers equipped with additive linearly perturbed utility of the form U(x)+m⋅x and faced with general budget constraints x 2 B. Given compact budget sets, the paper provides necessary as well as sufficient conditions for a demand genera...

Demands Set Upon Modern Cartographic Visualization

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stanislav Frangeš

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Scientific cartography has the task to develop and research new methods of cartographic visualization. General demands are set upon modern cartographic visualization, which encompasses digital cartography and computer graphics: legibility, clearness, accuracy, plainness and aesthetics. In this paper, it is explained in detail what demands should be met in order to satisfy the general demands set. In order to satisfy the demand of legibility, one should respect conditions of minimal sizes, appropriate graphical density and better differentiation of known features. Demand of clearness needs to be met by fulfilling conditions of simplicity, contrasting quality and layer arrangement of cartographic representation. Accuracy, as the demand on cartographic visualization, can be divided into positioning accuracy and accuracy signs. For fulfilling the demand of plainness, the conditions of symbolism, traditionalism and hierarchic organization should be met. Demand of aesthetics will be met if the conditions of beauty and harmony are fulfilled.

Implementation of a demand elasticity model in the building energy management system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ożadowicz, A.; Grela, J.; Babar, M.

2016-01-01

Nowadays, crucial part of modern Building Automation and Control Systems (BACS) is electric energy management. An active demand side management is very important feature of a Building Energy Management Systems (BEMS) integrated within the BACS. Since demand value changes in time and depends on

Open Automated Demand Response for Small Commerical Buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dudley, June Han; Piette, Mary Ann; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan

2009-05-01

This report characterizes small commercial buildings by market segments, systems and end-uses; develops a framework for identifying demand response (DR) enabling technologies and communication means; and reports on the design and development of a low-cost OpenADR enabling technology that delivers demand reductions as a percentage of the total predicted building peak electric demand. The results show that small offices, restaurants and retail buildings are the major contributors making up over one third of the small commercial peak demand. The majority of the small commercial buildings in California are located in southern inland areas and the central valley. Single-zone packaged units with manual and programmable thermostat controls make up the majority of heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems for small commercial buildings with less than 200 kW peak electric demand. Fluorescent tubes with magnetic ballast and manual controls dominate this customer group's lighting systems. There are various ways, each with its pros and cons for a particular application, to communicate with these systems and three methods to enable automated DR in small commercial buildings using the Open Automated Demand Response (or OpenADR) communications infrastructure. Development of DR strategies must consider building characteristics, such as weather sensitivity and load variability, as well as system design (i.e. under-sizing, under-lighting, over-sizing, etc). Finally, field tests show that requesting demand reductions as a percentage of the total building predicted peak electric demand is feasible using the OpenADR infrastructure.

Indonesia’s Electricity Demand Dynamic Modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Sulistio, J.; Wirabhuana, A.; Wiratama, M. G.

2017-06-01

Electricity Systems modelling is one of the emerging area in the Global Energy policy studies recently. System Dynamics approach and Computer Simulation has become one the common methods used in energy systems planning and evaluation in many conditions. On the other hand, Indonesia experiencing several major issues in Electricity system such as fossil fuel domination, demand - supply imbalances, distribution inefficiency, and bio-devastation. This paper aims to explain the development of System Dynamics modelling approaches and computer simulation techniques in representing and predicting electricity demand in Indonesia. In addition, this paper also described the typical characteristics and relationship of commercial business sector, industrial sector, and family / domestic sector as electricity subsystems in Indonesia. Moreover, it will be also present direct structure, behavioural, and statistical test as model validation approach and ended by conclusions.

Day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch of wind integrated power system considering demand response of residential hybrid energy system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, Yibo; Xu, Jian; Sun, Yuanzhang; Wei, Congying; Wang, Jing; Ke, Deping; Li, Xiong; Yang, Jun; Peng, Xiaotao; Tang, Bowen

2017-01-01

Highlights: • Improving the utilization of wind power by the demand response of residential hybrid energy system. • An optimal scheduling of home energy management system integrating micro-CHP. • The scattered response capability of consumers is aggregated by demand bidding curve. • A stochastic day-ahead economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power. - Abstract: As the installed capacity of wind power is growing, the stochastic variability of wind power leads to the mismatch of demand and generated power. Employing the regulating capability of demand to improve the utilization of wind power has become a new research direction. Meanwhile, the micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP) allows residential consumers to choose whether generating electricity by themselves or purchasing from the utility company, which forms a residential hybrid energy system. However, the impact of the demand response with hybrid energy system contained micro-CHP on the large-scale wind power utilization has not been analyzed quantitatively. This paper proposes an operation optimization model of the residential hybrid energy system based on price response, integrating micro-CHP and smart appliances intelligently. Moreover, a novel load aggregation method is adopted to centralize scattered response capability of residential load. At the power grid level, a day-ahead stochastic economic dispatch model considering demand response and wind power is constructed. Furthermore, simulation is conducted respectively on the modified 6-bus system and IEEE 118-bus system. The results show that with the method proposed, the wind power curtailment of the system decreases by 78% in 6-bus system. In the meantime, the energy costs of residential consumers and the operating costs of the power system reduced by 10.7% and 11.7% in 118-bus system, respectively.

Marketing research on potential demands of photovoltaic systems. Taiyoko hatsuden system no senzai shijo chosa seika hokokusho

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1988-03-01

Applicable uses and the market size for photovoltaic (PV) systems were investigated taking into consideration the features and economics of such systems. As a result of computing representative usage examples together with the extent of potential demand for PV, 238 GW for the power source in private homes, 76 GW for green houses, 126 GW for sewage water treatment plants, 4 GW for schools and universities and others were estimated. For the greater number of PV systems already in actual use, non-cost factors acted as major determining factors when deciding on implementation. Promising uses (applicable ideas) seen from the standpoint of non-cost factors were studied in order to develop the PV system market and gain breakthrough for lowering future costs and increasing proliferation for such systems. When it comes to simultaneously decreasing costs and increasing demand for solar batteries in the coming days, it will be impossible to make an immediate transition from the present state of demand for public use and for special use to the final goal of demand as a power source in the home. There is a need for an intermediate demand that can bridge this gap. (13 figs, 9 tabs)

Hydro Solar 21- A building energetic demand providing system based on renewable energies and hydrogen; Hydro Solar 21- Energias renovables e hidrogeno para el abastecimiento energetico de un edificio

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Renilla Collado, R.; Ortega Izquierdo, M.

2008-07-01

Hydro Solar 21 is an energy innovation Project carried out in Burgos City to develop an energy production system based on renewable energies to satisfy light and air condition requirements of a restored building. Nocturnal light demand is satisfied with hydrogen consumption in fuel cells. This hydrogen is produced with an energy renewable system made up of two wind turbine generators and a photovoltaic system. The air conditioning demand is satisfied with an adsorption solar system which produces cold water using thermal solar energy. (Author) 8 refs.

Policy implications of considering pre-commitments in U.S. aggregate energy demand system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowland, Christopher S.; Mjelde, James W.; Dharmasena, Senarath

2017-01-01

Linear approximations of the Generalized Almost Ideal Demand System and Almost Ideal Demand System for U.S. energy are compared to contrast the explicit inclusion and exclusion of pre-committed consumption levels. Results indicate that pre-commitment levels, the quantity of a good that is consumed in the short run with little regard for price, helps to better explain energy demand in the U.S. compared to the system that does not explicitly consider pre-commitments. Policy implications are if pre-commitments are a legitimate assumption, larger price changes are necessary to achieve a given policy objective than if there are no pre-commitments. - Highlights: • Pre-commitments are the quantity that is consumed with little regard for price. • Demand systems with pre-commitment levels better explain energy demand. • Elasticities from assuming pre-commitments are more elastic. • Estimated elasticities apply to discretionary and not pre-commitment consumption. • Pre-commitments require larger price changes to achieve a given policy objective.

An Investigation about using Nanorefrigerants in Air Conditioning Systems According to the Theoretical, CFD and Experimental Review of the Recent Literature

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farshad Panahizadeh

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Greenhouse gases (GHG causing global warming and climate change. In the year 2014, 32.3 billion tones CO2 emitted to the atmosphere as the most important greenhouse gas. According to the statistics, a significant portion of this amount is related to electricity demand of air conditioning systems, for producing a one ton of refrigeration in HVAC air cooled or water cooled systems respectively 1026 and 764 grams GHG emitted in the atmosphere. Therefore, air conditioning systems have an important role in the global warming and climate change. By increasing the COP of air conditioning systems the electricity demand of them reduced. One strategy for increasing the COP of air conditioning systems is using nanorefrigerants. In the present study, a comprehensive information is given regarding to use nanorefrigerants in air conditioning systems according to the theoretical, CFD and experimental review of the recent literature. This paper gives assistance to designers of air conditioning systems in their future efforts for selecting refrigerant for their systems

Energy systems scenario modelling and long term forecasting of hourly electricity demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poul Alberg Østergaard

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The Danish energy system is undergoing a transition from a system based on storable fossil fuels to a system based on fluctuating renewable energy sources. At the same time, more of and more of the energy system is becoming electrified; transportation, heating and fuel usage in industry and elsewhere. This article investigates the development of the Danish energy system in a medium year 2030 situation as well as in a long-term year 2050 situation. The analyses are based on scenario development by the Danish Climate Commission. In the short term, it is investigated what the effects will be of having flexible or inflexible electric vehicles and individual heat pumps, and in the long term it is investigated what the effects of changes in the load profiles due to changing weights of demand sectors are. The analyses are based on energy systems simulations using EnergyPLAN and demand forecasting using the Helena model. The results show that even with a limited short-term electric car fleet, these will have a significant effect on the energy system; the energy system’s ability to integrated wind power and the demand for condensing power generation capacity in the system. Charging patterns and flexibility have significant effects on this. Likewise, individual heat pumps may affect the system operation if they are equipped with heat storages. The analyses also show that the long-term changes in electricity demand curve profiles have little impact on the energy system performance. The flexibility given by heat pumps and electric vehicles in the long-term future overshadows any effects of changes in hourly demand curve profiles.

In demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Coleman, B. [Bridgestone Ltd. (United Kingdom)

2005-11-01

The paper explains how good relationships can help alleviate potential tyre shortages. Demand for large dump truck tyres (largely for China) has increased by 50% within 12 months. Bridgestone's manufacturing plants are operating at maximum capacity. The company supplies tyres to all vehicles at Scottish Coal's opencast coal mines. Its Tyre Management System (TMS) supplied free of charge to customers helps maximise tyre life and minimise downtime from data on pressure, tread and general conditions fed into the hand-held TMS computer. 3 photos.

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zulkepli, Jafri; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Fong, Chan Hwa

2015-01-01

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars

Demand forecasting for automotive sector in Malaysia by system dynamics approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zulkepli, Jafri, E-mail: zhjafri@uum.edu.my; Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal, E-mail: nhaslinda@uum.edu.my [School of Quantitative Sciences, Universiti Utara Malaysia, Sintok, Kedah (Malaysia); Fong, Chan Hwa, E-mail: hfchan7623@yahoo.com [SWM Environment Sdn. Bhd.Level 17, Menara LGB, Taman Tun Dr. Ismail Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia)

2015-12-11

In general, Proton as an automotive company needs to forecast future demand of the car to assist in decision making related to capacity expansion planning. One of the forecasting approaches that based on judgemental or subjective factors is normally used to forecast the demand. As a result, demand could be overstock that eventually will increase the operation cost; or the company will face understock, which resulted losing their customers. Due to automotive industry is very challenging process because of high level of complexity and uncertainty involved in the system, an accurate tool to forecast the future of automotive demand from the modelling perspective is required. Hence, the main objective of this paper is to forecast the demand of automotive Proton car industry in Malaysia using system dynamics approach. Two types of intervention namely optimistic and pessimistic experiments scenarios have been tested to determine the capacity expansion that can prevent the company from overstocking. Finding from this study highlighted that the management needs to expand their production for optimistic scenario, whilst pessimistic give results that would otherwise. Finally, this study could help Proton Edar Sdn. Bhd (PESB) to manage the long-term capacity planning in order to meet the future demand of the Proton cars.

Hydropeaking in Nordic rivers - combined analysis from effects of changing climate conditions and energy demands to river regimes

Science.gov (United States)

Ashraf, Faisal Bin; Marttila, Hannu; Torabi Haghighi, Ali; Alfredsen, Knut; Riml, Joakim; Kløve, Bjørn

2017-04-01

Increasing national and international demands for more flexible management of the energy resources with more non-storable renewables being used in adapting to the ongoing climate change will influence hydropower operations. Damming and regulation practices of river systems causes homogenization of long term river dynamics but also higher temporal sub-daily flow variations i.e. hydropeaking. In Nordic countries, many major rivers and lakes are regulated for hydropower purposes, which have caused considerable changes in river biotic, hydrologic and morphologic structures. Due to rapidly changing energy markets in the Nordic countries (deregulation of the power market and adding of renewable but intermittent sources of energy like, wind, solar, etc.) sub-daily flow conditions are under change within regulated river systems due to the increased demand on hydropower for providing balancing power. However, holistic analysis from changes in energy markets and its effect on sub-daily river regimes is lacking. This study analyzes the effects of hydropeaking on river regime in Finland, Sweden and Norway using long term high resolution data (15 minutes to hourly time interval) from 72 pristine and 136 regulated rivers with large spatial coverage across Fennoscandia. Since the sub-daily discharge variation is masked through the monthly or daily analyzes, in order to quantify these changes high resolution data is needed. In our study we will document, characterize and classify the impacts of sub-daily flow variation due to regulation and climatic variation on various river systems in Fennoscandia. Further, with increasing social demands for ecosystem services in regulated rivers, it is important to evaluate the new demand and update hydropower operation plan accordingly. We will analyse ecological response relationships along gradients of hydrological alteration for the biological communities, processes of river ecosystems and climate boundaries together with considering the

Product Aggregation Bias as a Specification Error in Demand Systems

OpenAIRE

George C. Davis

1997-01-01

Inherent in all demand studies is some form of product aggregation which can lead to product aggregation bias. This article develops a simple procedure for incorporating product aggregation bias in demand systems that permits testing of product aggregation bias with a standard likelihood ratio test. An empirical illustration of the procedure demonstrates the importance of proper product aggregation. Copyright 1997, Oxford University Press.

A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multistage energy conversion systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowe, R.

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases. (author)

Research in the Netherlands on system integration. Analysis of supply and demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Van Werhoven, M.; Bruel, R.

2000-07-01

Results of studies on integrated systems can contribute to the realization of sustainability targets of the Dutch government. In this report an overview is given of the supply-side and the demand-side of energy-related research on system integration. Also, recommendations to improve the coordination between supply and demand are given. 14 refs

PCBA demand forecasting using an evolving Takagi-Sugeno system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Rooijen, M.; Almeida, R.J.; Kaymak, U.

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the use of using an evolving fuzzy system for printed circuit board (PCBA) demand forecasting. The algorithm is based on the evolving Takagi-Sugeno (eTS) fuzzy system, which has the ability to incorporate new patterns by changing its internal structure in an on-line fashion.

Exploring Demand Charge Savings from Commercial Solar

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Darghouth, Naim [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Barbose, Galen [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, Andrew [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wiser, Ryan [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Gagnon, Pieter [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, Lori [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-07-31

Commercial retail electricity rates commonly include a demand charge component, based on some measure of the customer’s peak demand. Customer-sited solar PV can potentially reduce demand charges, but the magnitude of these savings can be difficult to predict, given variations in demand charge designs, customer loads, and PV generation profiles. Moreover, depending on the circumstances, demand charges from solar may or may not align well with associated utility cost savings. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are collaborating in a series of studies to understand how solar PV can reduce demand charge levels for a variety of customer types and demand charges designs. Previous work focused on residential customs with solar. This study, instead, focuses on commercial customers and seeks to understand the extent and conditions under which rooftop can solar reduce commercial demand charges. To answer these questions, we simulate demand charge savings for a broad range of commercial customer types, demand charge designs, locations, and PV system characteristics. This particular analysis does not include storage, but a subsequent analysis in this series will evaluate demand charge savings for commercial customers with solar and storage.

A novel microgrid demand-side management system for manufacturing facilities

Science.gov (United States)

Harper, Terance J.

Thirty-one percent of annual energy consumption in the United States occurs within the industrial sector, where manufacturing processes account for the largest amount of energy consumption and carbon emissions. For this reason, energy efficiency in manufacturing facilities is increasingly important for reducing operating costs and improving profits. Using microgrids to generate local sustainable power should reduce energy consumption from the main utility grid along with energy costs and carbon emissions. Also, microgrids have the potential to serve as reliable energy generators in international locations where the utility grid is often unstable. For this research, a manufacturing process that had approximately 20 kW of peak demand was matched with a solar photovoltaic array that had a peak output of approximately 3 KW. An innovative Demand-Side Management (DSM) strategy was developed to manage the process loads as part of this smart microgrid system. The DSM algorithm managed the intermittent nature of the microgrid and the instantaneous demand of the manufacturing process. The control algorithm required three input signals; one from the microgrid indicating the availability of renewable energy, another from the manufacturing process indicating energy use as a percent of peak production, and historical data for renewable sources and facility demand. Based on these inputs the algorithm had three modes of operation: normal (business as usual), curtailment (shutting off non-critical loads), and energy storage. The results show that a real-time management of a manufacturing process with a microgrid will reduce electrical consumption and peak demand. The renewable energy system for this research was rated to provide up to 13% of the total manufacturing capacity. With actively managing the process loads with the DSM program alone, electrical consumption from the utility grid was reduced by 17% on average. An additional 24% reduction was accomplished when the microgrid

Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Keane, A.; Tuohy, A.; Meibom, P.; Denny, E.; Flynn, D.; Mullane, A.; O'Malley, M.

2011-01-01

The utilisation of demand side resources is set to increase over the coming years with the advent of advanced metering infrastructure, home area networks and the promotion of increased energy efficiency. Demand side resources are proposed as an energy resource that, through aggregation, can form part of the power system plant mix and contribute to the flexible operation of a power system. A model for demand side resources is proposed here that captures its key characteristics for commitment and dispatch calculations. The model is tested on the all island Irish power system, and the operation of the model is simulated over one year in both a stochastic and deterministic mode, to illustrate the impact of wind and load uncertainty. The results illustrate that demand side resources can contribute to the efficient, flexible operation of systems with high penetrations of wind by replacing some of the functions of conventional peaking plant. Demand side resources are also shown to be capable of improving the reliability of the system, with reserve capability identified as a key requirement in this respect. - Highlights: → Demand side resource model presented for use in unit commitment and dispatch calculations. → Benefits of demand side aggregation demonstrated specifically as a peaking unit and provider of reserve. → Potential to displace or defer construction of conventional peaking units.

Managing Disasters Using Pressure Dependent Demand Analysis – Case Study of Shirpur Town

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Madhuri Mulay

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Water is the most essential component for sustaining lives of humans and other living creatures. Supplying potable water with adequate residual pressure is a fundamental responsibility of city administration, which they do during normal conditions. But sometimes, abnormal conditions are formed resulting pressure deficient conditions during the daily operations of water distribution networks. These are caused due to common occurrences such as pump failure, pipe bursts, and isolation of major pipes from the system for planned maintenance work and excessive firefighting demands. Total water stop conditions may arise, when the major source supplying water to the city fails in natural disaster such as floods, Tsunami, earthquake or manmade disaster such as terrorist attack. Unlike the pipe failure, longer time is required for restoring water in case of source failure condition. In such situations, the quantity of water is generally decreased and the water distribution systems (WDS may not be able to satisfy all consumers’ demands. In this context, the assumption that all demands are fully satisfied regardless of the pressure in the system becomes unreasonable. A realistic behavior of the network performance can only be attained by considering demands to be pressure dependent. This paper aims to describe how pressure dependent demand analysis is useful for the simulation of disaster scenario due to source failure of the Shirpur town. The simulation of failure scenario is carried out using WaterGEMs software. The paper also aims to prepare the action plans for the recovery of water supply in such crisis conditions.

Attentional and visual demands for sprint performance in non-fatigued and fatigued conditions: reliability of a repeated sprint test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diercks Ron L

2010-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical performance measures are widely used to assess physical function, providing information about physiological and biomechanical aspects of motor performance. However they do not provide insight into the attentional and visual demands for motor performance. A figure-of-eight sprint test was therefore developed to measure the attentional and visual demands for repeated-sprint performance. The aims of the study were: 1 to assess test-retest reliability of the figure-of-eight sprint test, and 2 to study the attentional and visual demands for sprint performance in a non-fatigued and fatigued condition. Methods Twenty-seven healthy athletes were included in the study. To determine test-retest reliability, a subgroup of 19 athletes performed the figure-of-eight sprint test twice. The figure-of-eight sprint test consisted of nine 30-second sprints. The sprint test consisted of three test parts: sprinting without any restriction, with an attention-demanding task, and with restricted vision. Increases in sprint times with the attention-demanding task or restricted vision are reflective of the attentional and visual demands for sprinting. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs and mean difference between test and retest with 95% confidence limits (CL were used to assess test-retest reliability. Repeated-measures ANOVA were used for comparisons between the sprint times and fatigue measurements of the test parts in both a non-fatigued and fatigued condition. Results The figure-of-eight sprint test showed good test-retest reliability, with ICCs ranging from 0.75 to 0.94 (95% CL: 0.40-0.98. Zero lay within the 95% CL of the mean differences, indicating that no bias existed between sprint performance at test and retest. Sprint times during the test parts with attention-demanding task (P = 0.01 and restricted vision (P Conclusions High ICCs and the absence of systematic variation indicate good test-retest reliability of the figure

Demand Forecasting at Low Aggregation Levels using Factored Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mocanu, Elena; Nguyen, Phuong H.; Gibescu, Madeleine

2016-01-01

electric power consumption, local price and meteorological data collected from 1900 customers. The households are equipped with local generation and smart appliances capable of responding to realtime pricing signals. The results show that for the short-term (5 minute to 1 day ahead) prediction problems......The electrical demand forecasting problem can be regarded as a nonlinear time series prediction problem depending on many complex factors since it is required at various aggregation levels and at high temporal resolution. To solve this challenging problem, various time series and machine learning...... developed deep learning model for time series prediction, namely Factored Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (FCRBM), and extend it for electrical demand forecasting. The assessment is made on the EcoGrid dataset, originating from the Bornholm island experiment in Denmark, consisting of aggregated...

Nitrogen economics of root foraging: transitive closure of the nitrate-cytokinin relay and distinct systemic signaling for N supply vs. demand.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruffel, Sandrine; Krouk, Gabriel; Ristova, Daniela; Shasha, Dennis; Birnbaum, Kenneth D; Coruzzi, Gloria M

2011-11-08

As sessile organisms, root plasticity enables plants to forage for and acquire nutrients in a fluctuating underground environment. Here, we use genetic and genomic approaches in a "split-root" framework--in which physically isolated root systems of the same plant are challenged with different nitrogen (N) environments--to investigate how systemic signaling affects genome-wide reprogramming and root development. The integration of transcriptome and root phenotypes enables us to identify distinct mechanisms underlying "N economy" (i.e., N supply and demand) of plants as a system. Under nitrate-limited conditions, plant roots adopt an "active-foraging strategy", characterized by lateral root outgrowth and a shared pattern of transcriptome reprogramming, in response to either local or distal nitrate deprivation. By contrast, in nitrate-replete conditions, plant roots adopt a "dormant strategy", characterized by a repression of lateral root outgrowth and a shared pattern of transcriptome reprogramming, in response to either local or distal nitrate supply. Sentinel genes responding to systemic N signaling identified by genome-wide comparisons of heterogeneous vs. homogeneous split-root N treatments were used to probe systemic N responses in Arabidopsis mutants impaired in nitrate reduction and hormone synthesis and also in decapitated plants. This combined analysis identified genetically distinct systemic signaling underlying plant N economy: (i) N supply, corresponding to a long-distance systemic signaling triggered by nitrate sensing; and (ii) N demand, experimental support for the transitive closure of a previously inferred nitrate-cytokinin shoot-root relay system that reports the nitrate demand of the whole plant, promoting a compensatory root growth in nitrate-rich patches of heterogeneous soil.

The impact of implementing a demand forecasting system into a low-income country's supply chain.

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Leslie E; Haidari, Leila A; Wateska, Angela R; Phillips, Roslyn J; Schmitz, Michelle M; Connor, Diana L; Norman, Bryan A; Brown, Shawn T; Welling, Joel S; Lee, Bruce Y

2016-07-12

To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g. adjusting ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country's vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger's entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfilment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential health and economic benefits of supply chain improvements. Copyright �

Cyber Physical System Modelling of Distribution Power Systems for Dynamic Demand Response

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Rongxiang; Tang, Maosen; Huang, Haoyi; Zhang, Lei

2018-01-01

Dynamic demand response (DDR) is a package of control methods to enhance power system security. A CPS modelling and simulation platform for DDR in distribution power systems is presented in this paper. CPS modelling requirements of distribution power systems are analyzed. A coupled CPS modelling platform is built for assessing DDR in the distribution power system, which combines seamlessly modelling tools of physical power networks and cyber communication networks. Simulations results of IEEE 13-node test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the modelling and simulation platform.

Improved estimation of electricity demand function by integration of fuzzy system and data mining approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Azadeh, A.; Saberi, M.; Ghaderi, S.F.; Gitiforouz, A.; Ebrahimipour, V.

2008-01-01

This study presents an integrated fuzzy system, data mining and time series framework to estimate and predict electricity demand for seasonal and monthly changes in electricity consumption especially in developing countries such as China and Iran with non-stationary data. Furthermore, it is difficult to model uncertain behavior of energy consumption with only conventional fuzzy system or time series and the integrated algorithm could be an ideal substitute for such cases. To construct fuzzy systems, a rule base is needed. Because a rule base is not available, for the case of demand function, look up table which is one of the extracting rule methods is used to extract the rule base. This system is defined as FLT. Also, decision tree method which is a data mining approach is similarly utilized to extract the rule base. This system is defined as FDM. Preferred time series model is selected from linear (ARMA) and nonlinear model. For this, after selecting preferred ARMA model, McLeod-Li test is applied to determine nonlinearity condition. When, nonlinearity condition is satisfied, preferred nonlinear model is selected and compare with preferred ARMA model and finally one of this is selected as time series model. At last, ANOVA is used for selecting preferred model from fuzzy models and time series model. Also, the impact of data preprocessing and postprocessing on the fuzzy system performance is considered by the algorithm. In addition, another unique feature of the proposed algorithm is utilization of autocorrelation function (ACF) to define input variables, whereas conventional methods which use trial and error method. Monthly electricity consumption of Iran from 1995 to 2005 is considered as the case of this study. The MAPE estimation of genetic algorithm (GA), artificial neural network (ANN) versus the proposed algorithm shows the appropriateness of the proposed algorithm

Analysis and design of a Taguchi-Grey based electricity demand predictor for energy management systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yao, Albert W.L.; Chi, S.C.

2004-01-01

In order to use electricity efficiently, a demand control management system is one of the effective ways to reduce energy consumption and electric bills. An electricity demand control system is used as a means to monitor and manage the usage of electricity effectively. Moreover, it is a useful tool for avoiding penalties beyond the contracted demand value of electricity with the electric power company. In this project, we developed a Taguchi-Grey based predictor to forecast the demand value of electricity on line. In a Grey prediction, the parameter settings are highly relevant to the accuracy of forecasting. A Taguchi method was employed to optimize the parameter settings for the Grey based electricity demand value predictor. Our experimental results show that the optimal parameter settings of the Grey prediction are α=0.4, five point modeling and three minute sampling time of the data acquisition system. The improved Taguchi-Grey based electricity demand predictor in conjunction with the PC based electricity demand control system is a cost effective and efficient means to manage the usage of electricity

Web-based energy information systems for energy management and demand response in commercial buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motegi, Naoya; Piette, Mary Ann; Kinney, Satkartar; Herter, Karen

2003-04-18

Energy Information Systems (EIS) for buildings are becoming widespread in the U.S., with more companies offering EIS products every year. As a result, customers are often overwhelmed by the quickly expanding portfolio of EIS feature and application options, which have not been clearly identified for consumers. The object of this report is to provide a technical overview of currently available EIS products. In particular, this report focuses on web-based EIS products for large commercial buildings, which allow data access and control capabilities over the Internet. EIS products combine software, data acquisition hardware, and communication systems to collect, analyze and display building information to aid commercial building energy managers, facility managers, financial managers and electric utilities in reducing energy use and costs in buildings. Data types commonly processed by EIS include energy consumption data; building characteristics; building system data, such as heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) and lighting data; weather data; energy price signals; and energy demand-response event information. This project involved an extensive review of research and trade literature to understand the motivation for EIS technology development. This study also gathered information on currently commercialized EIS. This review is not an exhaustive analysis of all EIS products; rather, it is a technical framework and review of current products on the market. This report summarizes key features available in today's EIS, along with a categorization framework to understand the relationship between EIS, Energy Management and Control Systems (EMCSs), and similar technologies. Four EIS types are described: Basic Energy Information Systems (Basic-EIS); Demand Response Systems (DRS); Enterprise Energy Management (EEM); and Web-based Energy Management and Control Systems (Web-EMCS). Within the context of these four categories, the following characteristics of EIS

Impacts of Demand-Side Management on Electrical Power Systems: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hussein Jumma Jabir

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Electricity demand has grown over the past few years and will continue to grow in the future. The increase in electricity demand is mainly due to industrialization and the shift from a conventional to a smart-grid paradigm. The number of microgrids, renewable energy sources, plug-in electric vehicles and energy storage systems have also risen in recent years. As a result, future electricity grids have to be revamped and adapt to increasing load levels. Thus, new complications associated with future electrical power systems and technologies must be considered. Demand-side management (DSM programs offer promising solutions to these issues and can considerably improve the reliability and financial performances of electrical power systems. This paper presents a review of various initiatives, techniques, impacts and recent developments of the DSM of electrical power systems. The potential benefits derived by implementing DSM in electrical power networks are presented. An extensive literature survey on the impacts of DSM on the reliability of electrical power systems is also provided for the first time. The research gaps within the broad field of DSM are also identified to provide directions for future work.

Power systems balancing with high penetration renewables: The potential of demand response in Hawaii

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Critz, D. Karl; Busche, Sarah; Connors, Stephen

2013-01-01

Highlights: • Demand response for Oahu results in system cost savings. • Demand response improves thermal power plant operations. • Increased use of wind generation possible with demand response. • WILMAR model used to simulate various levels and prices of demand response. - Abstract: The State of Hawaii’s Clean Energy policies call for 40% of the state’s electricity to be supplied by renewable sources by 2030. A recent study focusing on the island of Oahu showed that meeting large amounts of the island’s electricity needs with wind and solar introduced significant operational challenges, especially when renewable generation varies from forecasts. This paper focuses on the potential of demand response in balancing supply and demand on an hourly basis. Using the WILMAR model, various levels and prices of demand response were simulated. Results indicate that demand response has the potential to smooth overall power system operation, with production cost savings arising from both improved thermal power plant operations and increased wind production. Demand response program design and cost structure is then discussed drawing from industry experience in direct load control programs

Distributed control system for demand response by servers

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Joseph Edward

Within the broad topical designation of smart grid, research in demand response, or demand-side management, focuses on investigating possibilities for electrically powered devices to adapt their power consumption patterns to better match generation and more efficiently integrate intermittent renewable energy sources, especially wind. Devices such as battery chargers, heating and cooling systems, and computers can be controlled to change the time, duration, and magnitude of their power consumption while still meeting workload constraints such as deadlines and rate of throughput. This thesis presents a system by which a computer server, or multiple servers in a data center, can estimate the power imbalance on the electrical grid and use that information to dynamically change the power consumption as a service to the grid. Implementation on a testbed demonstrates the system with a hypothetical but realistic usage case scenario of an online video streaming service in which there are workloads with deadlines (high-priority) and workloads without deadlines (low-priority). The testbed is implemented with real servers, estimates the power imbalance from the grid frequency with real-time measurements of the live outlet, and uses a distributed, real-time algorithm to dynamically adjust the power consumption of the servers based on the frequency estimate and the throughput of video transcoder workloads. Analysis of the system explains and justifies multiple design choices, compares the significance of the system in relation to similar publications in the literature, and explores the potential impact of the system.

Base stock system for patient vs impatient customers with varying demand distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Fathima, Dowlath; Uduman, P. Sheik

2013-09-01

An optimal Base-Stock inventory policy for Patient and Impatient Customers using finite-horizon models is examined. The Base stock system for Patient and Impatient customers is a different type of inventory policy. In case of the model I, Base stock for Patient customer case is evaluated using the Truncated Exponential Distribution. The model II involves the study of Base-stock inventory policies for Impatient customer. A study on these systems reveals that the Customers wait until the arrival of the next order or the customers leaves the system which leads to lost sale. In both the models demand during the period [0, t] is taken to be a random variable. In this paper, Truncated Exponential Distribution satisfies the Base stock policy for the patient customer as a continuous model. So far the Base stock for Impatient Customers leaded to a discrete case but, in this paper we have modeled this condition into a continuous case. We justify this approach mathematically and also numerically.

Natural gas demand forecast system based on the application of artificial neural networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanfeliu, J.M.; Doumanian, J.E.

1997-01-01

Gas Natural BAN, as a distribution gas company since 1993 in the north and west area of Buenos Aires Argentina, with 1,000,000 customers, had to develop a gas demand forecast system which should comply with the following basic requirements: Be able to do reliable forecasts with short historical information (2 years); Distinguish demands in areas of different characteristics, i.e. mainly residential, mainly industrial; Self-learning capability. To accomplish above goals, Gas Natural BAN chose in view of its own necessities, an artificial intelligence application (neural networks). 'SANDRA', the gas demand forecast system for gas distribution used by Gas Natural BAN, has the following features: Daily gas demand forecast, Hourly gas demand forecast and Breakdown of both forecast for each of the 3 basic zones in which the distribution area of Gas Natural BAN is divided. (au)

An efficient water conditioning system for land-based abalone aquaculture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Davis, C.P. [University of Edinburgh (United Kingdom). School of GeoSciences; Carrington, C.G. [University of Otago, Dunedin (New Zealand). Dept. of Physics

2005-07-01

Data collected from a single grow-out tank in an abalone farm in southern New Zealand has highlighted hygiene maintenance problems in the use of semi-closed water conditioning systems for the aquaculture of New Zealand black foot abalone Haliotis iris. The data shows that semi-closed systems can have high concentrations of un-ionized ammonia, which is harmful to the animals. In this paper an alternative open flow-through system is suggested where energy demand is limited by heat recovery at the grow-out tank outlet. Using temperature data collected over 1 year, and a previously obtained expression for standing losses, a simple energy model is presented for an open system with heat recovery. To compliment the energy model, a function has been established for abalone production with respect to the concentration of un-ionized ammonia and water temperature. The energy model and production function are combined to determine the impact of plant design and tank conditions on the economics of the operation for the southern New Zealand climate. It is demonstrated that temperature control is financially preferable to an open system with no temperature control, and estimates of optimum operating conditions are given. (author)

A theoretical analysis of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lowe, Robert

2003-01-01

The objective of this paper is an analytical exploration of the problem of price elasticity of energy demand in multi-stage energy conversion systems. The paper describes in some detail an analytical model of energy demand in such systems. Under a clearly stated set of assumptions, the model makes it possible to explore both the impacts of the number of sub-systems, and of varying sub-system elasticities on overall system elasticity. The analysis suggests that overall price elasticity of energy demand for such systems will tend asymptotically to unity as the number of sub-systems increases

A Distributed Intelligent Automated Demand Response Building Management System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Auslander, David [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Culler, David [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Wright, Paul [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Lu, Yan [Siemens Corporate Research Inc., Princeton, NJ (United States); Piette, Mary [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2013-03-31

The goal of the 2.5 year Distributed Intelligent Automated Demand Response (DIADR) project was to reduce peak electricity load of Sutardja Dai Hall at UC Berkeley by 30% while maintaining a healthy, comfortable, and productive environment for the occupants. We sought to bring together both central and distributed control to provide “deep” demand response1 at the appliance level of the building as well as typical lighting and HVAC applications. This project brought together Siemens Corporate Research and Siemens Building Technology (the building has a Siemens Apogee Building Automation System (BAS)), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (leveraging their Open Automated Demand Response (openADR), Auto-­Demand Response, and building modeling expertise), and UC Berkeley (related demand response research including distributed wireless control, and grid-­to-­building gateway development). Sutardja Dai Hall houses the Center for Information Technology Research in the Interest of Society (CITRIS), which fosters collaboration among industry and faculty and students of four UC campuses (Berkeley, Davis, Merced, and Santa Cruz). The 141,000 square foot building, occupied in 2009, includes typical office spaces and a nanofabrication laboratory. Heating is provided by a district heating system (steam from campus as a byproduct of the campus cogeneration plant); cooling is provided by one of two chillers: a more typical electric centrifugal compressor chiller designed for the cool months (Nov-­ March) and a steam absorption chiller for use in the warm months (April-­October). Lighting in the open office areas is provided by direct-­indirect luminaries with Building Management System-­based scheduling for open areas, and occupancy sensors for private office areas. For the purposes of this project, we focused on the office portion of the building. Annual energy consumption is approximately 8053 MWh; the office portion is estimated as 1924 MWh. The maximum peak load

Smart electric storage heating and potential for residential demand response

OpenAIRE

Darby, S

2017-01-01

Low-carbon transition plans for temperate and sub-polar regions typically involve some electrification of space heating. This poses challenges to electricity system operation and market design, as it increases overall demand and alters the temporal patterns of that demand. One response to the challenge is to ‘smarten’ electrical heating, enabling it to respond to network conditions by storing energy at times of plentiful supply, releasing it in response to customer demands and offering rapid-...

Improving demand response potential of a supermarket refrigeration system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Rasmus; Schwensen, John; Biegel, Benjamin

2017-01-01

In a smart grid the load shifting capabilities of demand-side devices such as supermarkets are of high interest. In supermarkets this potential is represented by the ability to store energy in the thermal mass of refrigerated foodstuff. To harness the full load shifting potential we propose...... a method for estimating food temperature based on measurements of evaporator expansion valve opening degree. This method requires no additional hardware or system modeling. We demonstrate the estimation method on a real supermarket display case and the applicability of knowing food temperature is shown...... through tests on a full scale supermarket refrigeration system made available by Danfoss A/S. The conducted application test shows that feedback based on food temperature can increase the demand flexibility during a step by approx. 60 % the first 70 minutes and up to 100%over the first 150 minutes...

Indirect control of flexible demand for power system applications

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sossan, Fabrizio

This thesis addresses the topic of control of flexible demand to provide support to the operation of the electric power system. We focus on the indirect control approach, a framework that enables demand response by means of a consumption incentive signal. Initially, the concept of flexibility...... a shift in the consumption according to an indirect control signal. We present from simple control algorithms with a few requirements up to model predictive control strategies. The performance of the indirect control algorithms are compared by means of hardware-in-the-loop simulations using Power...... and storage in the operation of the future power system, we develop a model predictive control strategy for a smart building with the objective of supplying iii space heating and providing regulating power to the grid according to a dynamic electricity price. We named this application energy replacement...

Heat demand profiles of energy conservation measures in buildings and their impact on a district heating system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lundström, Lukas; Wallin, Fredrik

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Energy savings impact on an low CO 2 emitting district heating system. • Heat profiles of eight building energy conservation measures. • Exhaust air heat pump, heat recovery ventilation, electricity savings etc. • Heat load weather normalisation with segmented multivariable linear regression. - Abstract: This study highlights the forthcoming problem with diminishing environmental benefits from heat demand reducing energy conservation measures (ECM) of buildings within district heating systems (DHS), as the supply side is becoming “greener” and more primary energy efficient. In this study heat demand profiles and annual electricity-to-heat factors of ECMs in buildings are computed and their impact on system efficiency and greenhouse gas emissions of a Swedish biomass fuelled and combined heat and power utilising DHS are assessed. A weather normalising method for the DHS heat load is developed, combining segmented multivariable linear regressions with typical meteorological year weather data to enable the DHS model and the buildings model to work under the same weather conditions. Improving the buildings’ envelope insulation level and thereby levelling out the DHS heat load curve reduces greenhouse gas emissions and improves primary energy efficiency. Reducing household electricity use proves to be highly beneficial, partly because it increases heat demand, allowing for more cogeneration of electricity. However the other ECMs considered may cause increased greenhouse gas emissions, mainly because of their adverse impact on the cogeneration of electricity. If biomass fuels are considered as residuals, and thus assigned low primary energy factors, primary energy efficiency decreases when implementing ECMs that lower heat demand.

How do household characteristics affect appliance usage? Application of conditional demand analysis to Japanese household data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsumoto, Shigeru

2016-01-01

Although both appliance ownership and usage patterns determine residential electricity consumption, it is less known how households actually use their appliances. In this study, we conduct conditional demand analyses to break down total household electricity consumption into a set of demand functions for electricity usage, across 12 appliance categories. We then examine how the socioeconomic characteristics of the households explain their appliance usage. Analysis of micro-level data from the Nation Survey of Family and Expenditure in Japan reveals that the family and income structure of households affect appliance usage. Specifically, we find that the presence of teenagers increases both air conditioner and dishwasher use, labor income and nonlabor income affect microwave usage in different ways, air conditioner usage decreases as the wife's income increases, and microwave usage decreases as the husband's income increases. Furthermore, we find that households use more electricity with new personal computers than old ones; this implies that the replacement of old personal computers increases electricity consumption. - Highlights: •We conduct conditional demand analyses to study household appliance usage. •Micro-level data from the National Survey of Family and Expenditure in Japan are analyzed. •We show how household characteristics determine appliance usage. •High-income households use specific appliances less intensively than low-income households. •The replacement of old TVs and PCs lead to greater electricity consumption.

Divergent systemic and local inflammatory response to hind limb demand ischemia in wild-type and ApoE-/- mice.

Science.gov (United States)

Crawford, Robert S; Albadawi, Hassan; Robaldo, Alessandro; Peck, Michael A; Abularrage, Christopher J; Yoo, Hyung-Jin; Lamuraglia, Glenn M; Watkins, Michael T

2013-08-01

We designed studies to determine whether the ApoE-/- phenotype modulates the local skeletal muscle and systemic inflammatory (plasma) responses to lower extremity demand ischemia. The ApoE-/- phenotype is an experimental model for atherosclerosis in humans. Aged female ApoE-/- and C57BL6 mice underwent femoral artery ligation, then were divided into sedentary and demand ischemia (exercise) groups on day 14. We assessed baseline and postexercise limb perfusion and hind limb function. On day 14, animals in the demand ischemia group underwent daily treadmill exercise through day 28. Sedentary mice were not exercised. On day 28, we harvested plasma and skeletal muscle from ischemic limbs from sedentary and exercised mice. We assayed muscle for angiogenic and proinflammatory proteins, markers of skeletal muscle regeneration, and evidence of skeletal muscle fiber maturation. Hind limb ischemia was similar in ApoE-/- and C57 mice before the onset of exercise. Under sedentary conditions, plasma vascular endothelial cell growth factor and interleukin-6, but not keratinocyte chemoattractant factor (KC) or macrophage inflammatory protein-2 (MIP-2), were higher in ApoE (P factor, KC, and MIP-2, but not IL-6, were lower in ApoE (P demand ischemia in the C57BL6 mice, compared with the ApoE-/- mice (P = 0.01). Demand limb ischemia in the ApoE-/- phenotype exacerbated the expression of select systemic cytokines in plasma and blunted indices of muscle regeneration. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Views of Health System Experts on Macro Factors of Induced Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Elahe Khorasani

2014-01-01

Conclusions: Results of this research present a framework for analyzing the major causes of induced demand. The causes identified here include complexity of medicine, information mismatch between service providers and consumers, clinical uncertainty, false beliefs, advertisements, insufficient supervision, scarcity of clinical guidelines, weakness of education system, and ignorance of medical ethics. These findings help policymakers to investigate the induced demand phenomenon clear-sighted.

U.S. Demand for Tobacco Products in a System Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Yuqing; Zhen, Chen; Dench, Daniel; Nonnemaker, James M

2017-08-01

This study estimated a system of demand for cigarettes, little cigars/cigarillos, large cigars, e-cigarettes, smokeless tobacco, and loose smoking tobacco using market-level scanner data for convenience stores. We found that the unconditional own-price elasticities for the six categories are -1.188, -1.428, -1.501, -2.054, -0.532, and -1.678, respectively. Several price substitute (e.g., cigarettes and e-cigarettes) and complement (e.g., cigarettes and smokeless tobacco) relationships were identified. Magazine and television advertising increased demand for e-cigarettes, and magazine advertising increased demand for smokeless tobacco and had spillover effects on demand for other tobacco products. We also reported the elasticities by U.S. census regions and market size. These results may have important policy implications, especially viewed in the context of the rise of electronic cigarettes and the potential for harm reduction if combustible tobacco users switch to non-combustible tobacco products. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Demand control on room level of the supply air temperature in an air heating and ventilation system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Polak, Joanna; Afshari, Alireza; Bergsøe, Niels Christian

2017-01-01

air heating and ventilation system in a high performance single family house using BSim simulation software. The provision of the desired thermal conditions in different rooms was examined. Results show that the new control strategy can facilitate maintaining of desired temperatures in various rooms......The aim of this study was to investigate a new strategy for control of supply air temperature in an integrated air heating and ventilation system. The new strategy enables demand control of supply air temperature in individual rooms. The study is based on detailed dynamic simulations of a combined....... Moreover, this control strategy enables controlled temperature differentiation between rooms within the house and therefore provides flexibility and better balance in heat delivery. Consequently, the thermal conditions in the building can be improved....

Dynamic modelling of a PV pumping system with special consideration on water demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campana, Pietro Elia; Li, Hailong; Yan, Jinyue

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Evaluation of water demand and solar energy is essential for PV pumping system. ► The design for a PV water pumping system has been optimized based on dynamic simulations. ► It is important to conduct dynamic simulations to check the matching between water demand and water supply. ► AC pump driven by the fixed PV array is the most cost-effective solution. - Abstract: The exploitation of solar energy in remote areas through photovoltaic (PV) systems is an attractive solution for water pumping for irrigation systems. The design of a photovoltaic water pumping system (PVWPS) strictly depends on the estimation of the crop water requirements and land use since the water demand varies during the watering season and the solar irradiation changes time by time. It is of significance to conduct dynamic simulations in order to achieve the successful and optimal design. The aim of this paper is to develop a dynamic modelling tool for the design of a of photovoltaic water pumping system by combining the models of the water demand, the solar PV power and the pumping system, which can be used to validate the design procedure in terms of matching between water demand and water supply. Both alternate current (AC) and direct current (DC) pumps and both fixed and two-axis tracking PV array were analyzed. The tool has been applied in a case study. Results show that it has the ability to do rapid design and optimization of PV water pumping system by reducing the power peak and selecting the proper devices from both technical and economic viewpoints. Among the different alternatives considered in this study, the AC fixed system represented the best cost effective solution

Demand modelling for central heating systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Heller, A.

2000-07-01

Most researchers in the field of heat demand estimation have focussed on explaning the load for a given plant based on rather few measurements. This approach is simply the only one adaptable with the very limited data material and limited computer power. This way of dealing with the subject is here called the top-down approach, due to the fact that one tries to explain the load from the overall data. The results of such efforts are discussed in the report, leading to inspiration for own work. Also the significance of the findings to the causes for given heat loads are discussed and summarised. Contrary to the top-down approach applied in literature, a here-called bottom-up approach is applied in this work, describing the causes of a given partial load in detail and combining them to explain the total load for the system. Three partial load 'components' are discussed: 1) Space heating. 2) Hot-Water Consumption. 3) Heat losses in pipe networks. The report is aimed at giving an introduction to these subjects, but at the same time at collecting the previous work done by the author. Space heating is shortly discussed and loads are generated by an advanced simulation model. A hot water consumption model is presented and heat loads, generated by this model, utilised in the overall work. Heat loads due to heat losses in district heating a given a high priority in the current work. Hence a detailed presentation and overview of the subject is given to solar heating experts normally not dealing with district heating. Based on the 'partial' loads generated by the above-mentioned method, an overall load model is built in the computer simulation environment TRNSYS. The final tool is then employed for the generation of time series for heat demand, representing a district heating area. The results are compared to alternative methods for the generation of heat demand profiles. Results form this comparison will be presented. Computerised modelling of systems

The impact of residential demand response on the costs of a fossil-free system reserve

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Katz, Jonas; Balyk, Olexandr; Hevia Koch, Pablo Alejandro

2016-01-01

In order to achieve a better understanding of the system value of residential demand response, we study the potential impact of flexible demand on the costs of system reserves in a fossil-free electricity supply. Comparing these costs with traditional means of regulation our analysis aims...... to contribute to determining the least-cost options for regulation in a fossil-free power system. We extend an existing energy system model with demand response and reserve modelling and analyse the impact for the case of Denmark in 2035 to reflect a system based on renewable resources for electricity...

Aggregated Demand Modelling Including Distributed Generation, Storage and Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Marzooghi, Hesamoddin; Hill, David J.; Verbic, Gregor

2014-01-01

It is anticipated that penetration of renewable energy sources (RESs) in power systems will increase further in the next decades mainly due to environmental issues. In the long term of several decades, which we refer to in terms of the future grid (FG), balancing between supply and demand will become dependent on demand actions including demand response (DR) and energy storage. So far, FG feasibility studies have not considered these new demand-side developments for modelling future demand. I...

Ice thermal storage air conditioning system for electric load leveling; Denryoku heijunka to hyochikunetsu system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shigenaga, Y. [Daikin Industries Ltd., Osaka (Japan)

1998-08-15

Thermal storage air conditioning system is the one to use energy stored into thermal storing materials by using night electric power and to operate effective air conditioning. Therefore, as load can be treated by the stored energy, volume of the apparatus can be reduced. And, by reduction of the consumed power at day time, it can contribute to leveling of electric power demand. In general, there are two types in the thermal storage method: one is a method to store as thermal energy, and the other is that to store as chemical energy. For conditions required for the storing materials, important elements on their actual uses are not only physical properties such as large thermal storage per unit and easy thermal in- and out-puts, but also safety, long-term reliability, and easy receiving and economics containing future. The ice thermal storage air conditioning system is classified at the viewpoint of type of ice, kind of thermal storing medium, melting method on using cooling and heating, kinds of thermal medium on cooling and heating. 3 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

Impact of onsite solar generation on system load demand forecast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaur, Amanpreet; Pedro, Hugo T.C.; Coimbra, Carlos F.M.

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We showed the impact onsite solar generation on system demand load forecast. • Forecast performance degrades by 9% and 3% for 1 h and 15 min forecast horizons. • Error distribution for onsite case is best characterized as t-distribution. • Relation between error, solar penetration and solar variability is characterized. - Abstract: Net energy metering tariffs have encouraged the growth of solar PV in the distribution grid. The additional variability associated with weather-dependent renewable energy creates new challenges for power system operators that must maintain and operate ancillary services to balance the grid. To deal with these issues power operators mostly rely on demand load forecasts. Electric load forecast has been used in power industry for a long time and there are several well established load forecasting models. But the performance of these models for future scenario of high renewable energy penetration is unclear. In this work, the impact of onsite solar power generation on the demand load forecast is analyzed for a community that meets between 10% and 15% of its annual power demand and 3–54% of its daily power demand from a solar power plant. Short-Term Load Forecasts (STLF) using persistence, machine learning and regression-based forecasting models are presented for two cases: (1) high solar penetration and (2) no penetration. Results show that for 1-h and 15-min forecasts the accuracy of the models drops by 9% and 3% with high solar penetration. Statistical analysis of the forecast errors demonstrate that the error distribution is best characterized as a t-distribution for the high penetration scenario. Analysis of the error distribution as a function of daily solar penetration for different levels of variability revealed that the solar power variability drives the forecast error magnitude whereas increasing penetration level has a much smaller contribution. This work concludes that the demand forecast error distribution

The Impact of Implementing a Demand Forecasting System into a Low-Income Country’s Supply Chain

Science.gov (United States)

Mueller, Leslie E.; Haidari, Leila A.; Wateska, Angela R.; Phillips, Roslyn J.; Schmitz, Michelle M.; Connor, Diana L.; Norman, Bryan A.; Brown, Shawn T.; Welling, Joel S.; Lee, Bruce Y.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the potential impact and value of applications (e.g., ordering levels, storage capacity, transportation capacity, distribution frequency) of data from demand forecasting systems implemented in a lower-income country’s vaccine supply chain with different levels of population change to urban areas. MATERIALS AND METHODS Using our software, HERMES, we generated a detailed discrete event simulation model of Niger’s entire vaccine supply chain, including every refrigerator, freezer, transport, personnel, vaccine, cost, and location. We represented the introduction of a demand forecasting system to adjust vaccine ordering that could be implemented with increasing delivery frequencies and/or additions of cold chain equipment (storage and/or transportation) across the supply chain during varying degrees of population movement. RESULTS Implementing demand forecasting system with increased storage and transport frequency increased the number of successfully administered vaccine doses and lowered the logistics cost per dose up to 34%. Implementing demand forecasting system without storage/transport increases actually decreased vaccine availability in certain circumstances. DISCUSSION The potential maximum gains of a demand forecasting system may only be realized if the system is implemented to both augment the supply chain cold storage and transportation. Implementation may have some impact but, in certain circumstances, may hurt delivery. Therefore, implementation of demand forecasting systems with additional storage and transport may be the better approach. Significant decreases in the logistics cost per dose with more administered vaccines support investment in these forecasting systems. CONCLUSION Demand forecasting systems have the potential to greatly improve vaccine demand fulfillment, and decrease logistics cost/dose when implemented with storage and transportation increases direct vaccines. Simulation modeling can demonstrate the potential

Stochastic risk-constrained short-term scheduling of industrial cogeneration systems in the presence of demand response programs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alipour, Manijeh; Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam; Zare, Kazem

2014-01-01

Highlights: • Short-term self-scheduling problem of customers with CHP units is conducted. • Power demand and pool prices are forecasted using ARIMA models. • Risk management problem is conducted by implementing CVaR methodology. • The demand response program is implemented in self-scheduling problem of CHP units. • Non-convex feasible operation region in different types of CHP units is modeled. - Abstract: This paper presents a stochastic programming framework for solving the scheduling problem faced by an industrial customer with cogeneration facilities, conventional power production system, and heat only units. The power and heat demands of the customer are supplied considering demand response (DR) programs. In the proposed DR program, the responsive load can vary in different time intervals. In the paper, the heat-power dual dependency characteristic in different types of CHP units is taken into account. In addition, a heat buffer tank, with the ability of heat storage, has been incorporated in the proposed framework. The impact of the market and load uncertainties on the scheduling problem is characterized through a stochastic programming formulation. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) technique is used to generate the electricity price and the customer demand scenarios. The daily and weekly seasonalities of demand and market prices are taken into account in the scenario generation procedure. The conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) methodology is implemented in order to limit the risk of expected profit due to market price and load forecast volatilities

Demand and generation cost uncertainty modelling in power system optimization studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomes, Bruno Andre; Saraiva, Joao Tome [INESC Porto and Departamento de Engenharia Electrotecnica e Computadores, Faculdade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, FEUP, Campus da FEUP Rua Roberto Frias 378, 4200 465 Porto (Portugal)

2009-06-15

This paper describes the formulations and the solution algorithms developed to include uncertainties in the generation cost function and in the demand on DC OPF studies. The uncertainties are modelled by trapezoidal fuzzy numbers and the solution algorithms are based on multiparametric linear programming techniques. These models are a development of an initial formulation detailed in several publications co-authored by the second author of this paper. Now, we developed a more complete model and a more accurate solution algorithm in the sense that it is now possible to capture the widest possible range of values of the output variables reflecting both demand and generation cost uncertainties. On the other hand, when modelling simultaneously demand and generation cost uncertainties, we are representing in a more realistic way the volatility that is currently inherent to power systems. Finally, the paper includes a case study to illustrate the application of these models based on the IEEE 24 bus test system. (author)

Demand side resource operation on the Irish power system with high wind power penetration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Keane, A.; Tuohy, A.; Meibom, Peter

2011-01-01

part of the power system plant mix and contribute to the flexible operation of a power system. A model for demand side resources is proposed here that captures its key characteristics for commitment and dispatch calculations. The model is tested on the all island Irish power system, and the operation...... of the functions of conventional peaking plant. Demand side resources are also shown to be capable of improving the reliability of the system, with reserve capability identified as a key requirement in this respect....... of the model is simulated over one year in both a stochastic and deterministic mode, to illustrate the impact of wind and load uncertainty. The results illustrate that demand side resources can contribute to the efficient, flexible operation of systems with high penetrations of wind by replacing some...

HVAC-DYNAMICS - a tool for quality assurance in relation to delivery of air-conditioning systems. [Heating, ventilating and air conditioning]. HVAC-DYNAMICS - et redskap for kvalitetsikring av sluttleveransen i klima-anlegg

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Novakovic, V [SINTEF Varmeteknikk, Seksjon VVS (NO)

1990-07-01

HVAC-DYNAMICS is a computerized tool for quality assurance of the functioning of an air-conditioning system at the time of delivery. The system's efficiency in the case of fluctuating and critical operation is evaluated. The HVAC-DYNAMICS gives an optimal choice for air-conditioning systems regarding indoor climate, efficiency demands and energy consumption. The program can also be use for calibration of regulators, fault-finding, and training purposes. (CLS).

Hazard rate for a two-channel protective system subject to a high demand rate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oliveira, L.F.; Youngblood, R.; Melo, P.F.F.

1989-01-01

A basic figure of merit associated with a protective system for an industrial plant is the number of accidents expected to occur in the plant within a given period of time, with the system installed. By definition, in a plant equipped with a protective system, an accident can only happen if an initiating event (a demand) occurs while the protective system is unavailable, that is, while it is in one of its possible failed states. This means that the hazard rate or accident frequency depends on the demand rate and on the unavailability of the protective systems. It has long been recognized that the demand rate influences the unavailability of the protective system, and practical expressions incorporating that effect have been developed for single-channel (Lees, 1982) and multi-channel (Kumamoto and Henley 1978) protective systems. The effect has also been incorporated into a Markovian treatment of a plant protection system (Papazoglou and Cho, 1985). In a previous paper (Oliveira and Netto, 1987) a Markovian approach was used to derive analytical expressions for the evaluation of the plant hazard rate for a single-channel protective system, properly accounting for the effects of the demand and the repair rates. In this paper the authors present an extension of that model to the case of a plant equipped with a two-channel protective system

Strategies for Demand Response in Commercial Buildings

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, David S.; Kiliccote, Sila; Motegi, Naoya; Piette, Mary Ann

2006-06-20

This paper describes strategies that can be used in commercial buildings to temporarily reduce electric load in response to electric grid emergencies in which supplies are limited or in response to high prices that would be incurred if these strategies were not employed. The demand response strategies discussed herein are based on the results of three years of automated demand response field tests in which 28 commercial facilities with an occupied area totaling over 11 million ft{sup 2} were tested. Although the demand response events in the field tests were initiated remotely and performed automatically, the strategies used could also be initiated by on-site building operators and performed manually, if desired. While energy efficiency measures can be used during normal building operations, demand response measures are transient; they are employed to produce a temporary reduction in demand. Demand response strategies achieve reductions in electric demand by temporarily reducing the level of service in facilities. Heating ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) and lighting are the systems most commonly adjusted for demand response in commercial buildings. The goal of demand response strategies is to meet the electric shed savings targets while minimizing any negative impacts on the occupants of the buildings or the processes that they perform. Occupant complaints were minimal in the field tests. In some cases, ''reductions'' in service level actually improved occupant comfort or productivity. In other cases, permanent improvements in efficiency were discovered through the planning and implementation of ''temporary'' demand response strategies. The DR strategies that are available to a given facility are based on factors such as the type of HVAC, lighting and energy management and control systems (EMCS) installed at the site.

Alternative Transportation System Demand Estimation for Federal Land Management Agencies.

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-30

Estimating travel demand for alternative transportation systems (ATS) is challenging in any context, but is even more daunting for Federal Land Management Agencies (FLMAs). Federal public land sites vary widely in their characteristics. Moreover, tra...

Improvement of the regulatory system by implementation new safety demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iglesias, R.; Alfonso, C.

1996-01-01

The work describes in broad terms, the analysis that is being performed aiming at the adoption of a regulatory system that could meet the current safety demands, but which, at the same time, could be a general system that might allow different safety assessments to be done by making use of more specific technical standards of the technology supplier

Excessive physical demands in modern worklife and characteristics of work and living conditions of persons at risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Karlqvist, Lena K; Härenstam, Annika; Leijon, Ola; Schéele, Patrik

2003-10-01

This study attempted to identify work and leisure-time conditions and life-style factors associated with excess metabolic levels (metabolic demands exceeding one-third of a person's aerobic capacity) at work among men and women. The study focused upon psychological, ergonomic, and physically loading factors and chemical and physical environmental conditions. Data were obtained through self-reports, interviews, workplace analyses, technical measurements, and observations. Gender-specific calculations were used in univariate analyses and in stepwise logistic regression models for excess metabolic level. Twenty-seven percent of the men and twenty-two percent of the women worked at an excess metabolic level during their workday. Awkward work postures, heavy manual materials handling, high circulatory strain, chemical exposures, noise levels, much routine work, and many obstacles to job performance characterized their work conditions. The women had low skill discretion and more often atypical workhours, while the men showed high circulatory strain during leisure-time activities. Important negative life-style factors were a high consumption of alcohol for the men and a high body mass index and no or little regular physical exercise for the women. Metabolic demands in worklife today remain high. The women who exceeded the recommended metabolic level at work in this study were characterized by low pay, poor health, and children at home, in addition to high physical load and psychosocial strain at work. These characteristics indicate a group with few possibilities to leave a hazardous job for a less physically demanding one. The men who worked at an excess metabolic level seemed to be characterized more by a life-style common in some male-dominated work cultures with monotonous work.

Demand and supply in Russian gas market

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milovidov, K.N.

1997-01-01

The big volume of gas supplies for current and future energy and natural gas balances in Russia is important to understand the likely future dynamics of demand for gas. The path of future demand in Russia is uncertain and the range of possible scenarios is wide. For creating the new gas consumption structure, more deep diversification and development of the gas distribution systems, large investments and considerable periods of time are necessary. The factors usually studied in detail in the conditions of market economy can not be used here as a basis for strategic planning due to several reasons. (R.P.)

Influence of demand patterns on the optimal orientation of photovoltaic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Litjens, G. B.M.A.; Worrell, E.; van Sark, W. G.J.H.M.

2017-01-01

Photovoltaic (PV) systems are usually orientated to maximize annual energy yield. This may not optimize other system indicators, specifically: direct consumption of self-generated PV power, reduced feed-in power and annual revenue. Also, these indicators are influenced by the energy demand of a

Basic demands for radiological information systems (RIS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Traupe, H.; Purgold, S.

1993-01-01

One of the most important problems in medicine today is quality control and the achievement of a cost-benefit analysis in the areas of both treatment and diagnosis. With modern software techniques, complex relations between medical and aministrative data can be shown up and analysed. Preconditions are a vocabulary that can be processed by computer for medical facts and decisions and a database system capable of collecting a large amount of heterogeneous data and costing everything precisely. We have developed an object description language and, on the basis of the relational database approach, a complex system covering most aspects of medical and administrative data handling in radiology. The basic demands and elements of modern information handling in radiology are described and discussed. (orig.) [de

Estimating demand and unmet need for allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation in the United States using geographic information systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Besse, Kelsey L; Preussler, Jaime M; Murphy, Elizabeth A; Denzen, Ellen M; Lill, Michael C; Chell, Jeffrey W; Senneka, Mary K; Majhail, Navneet S; Williams, Eric P

2015-03-01

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is an increasingly used therapy for many patients with hematologic malignancies and other marrow failure or immune system disorders. The purpose of this study was to quantify and visualize both the demand and unmet need for HCT. HCT use for 2012 was described using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research registry. Potential demand for HCT was calculated using 2012 SEER data and published literature for HCT-treatable conditions. Point locations of transplant centers were geocoded using geographic information system (GIS) software; Thiessen polygons were created to establish adult (age 20 to 74 years) and pediatric (age 0 to 19 years) market areas. Market-area population estimates were calculated using 2012 population estimates by age aggregated by census block. US market areas for HCTs were identified separately for transplant centers treating adult (n = 62) and pediatric patients (n = 52). Overall HCT demand among adults was 16,096, with an unmet need for HCTs of 10,276 patients. For pediatric patients, the total demand was 4,561, with an unmet need of 3,213 potential recipients. Evaluation of adult and pediatric market areas indicated that the largest unmet needs tended to be in areas with large populations. Market-area maps and statistics developed using GIS will help communicate the unmet need for HCT, inform policy, and assist transplant centers in planning for the anticipated growth in HCT use. Copyright © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Energy managemant through PCM based thermal storage system for building air-conditioning: Tidel Park, Chennai

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nallusamy, N.; Sampath, S.; Velraj, R.

2006-01-01

Many modern building are designed for air-conditioning and the amount of electrical energy required for providing air-conditioning can be very significant especially in the tropics. Conservation of energy is major concern to improve the overall efficiency of the system. Integration is energy storage with the conventional system gives a lot of potential for energy saving and long-term economics. Thermal energy storage systems can improve energy management and help in matching supply and demand patterns. In the present work, a detailed study has been done on the existing thermal energy storage system used in the air-conditioning system in Tidel Park, Chennai. The present study focuses on the cool energy storage system. The modes of operation and advantages of such a system for energy management are highlighted. The reason for the adoption of combined storage system and the size of the storage medium in the air-conditioning plant are analyzed. The possibility of using this concept in other cooling and heating applications, such as storage type solar water heating system, has been explored

Power System Integration of Flexible Demand in the Low Voltage Network

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thavlov, Anders

, it is natural to consider electricity consumption from households as an integrated part of a potential flexible demand side in the future power system. However, as an individual unit a single household is not able to generate a large impact in the power system. Therefore, a mechanism is needed which can...... is even greater as almost 50% of the electricity consumption in households is utilised for space heating and cooling and for heating of domestic hot water. Consequently, there exists a significant potential in the integration of power consumption for heating purposes in households for demand response...... of electricity on the Nordic energy exchange, Nord Pool, or alternatively the flexibility can be sold as an ancillary service to the transmission system operator. In this way, the electricity consumption in households are indirectly integrated into the power market, through the virtual power plant...

Didactical And Ethics Demands For Automated Pedagogical Diagnostics.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Kolgatin

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Didactical demands for pedagogical diagnostics and its realisation specific characters under conditions of active using of ICT in instruction process of universities are analysed. The ethics questions of pedagogical diagnostics are considered. Ethic aspects, connected with using of the automated pedagogical diagnostic systems, are underlined.

Optimal balance between energy demand and onsite energy generation for robust net zero energy buildings considering future scenarios

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kotireddy, R.R.; Hoes, P.; Hensen, J.L.M.

2015-01-01

Net-zero energy buildings have usually very low energy demand, and consequently heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) systems are designed and controlled to meet this low energy demand. However, a number of uncertainties in the building use, operation and external conditions such as

Consumer Demand for Major Foods in Egypt

OpenAIRE

Basem Fayaad; Stanley R. Johnson; Mohamed El-Khishin

1995-01-01

This study provides information on the structure of the consumer demand for major foods in Egypt. The information is in the form of key parameters for consumer demand systems. The modern theory of consumer behavior is the basis for estimating systems of demand equations. These systems yield estimates of own- and cross-price elasticities. The Linear Almost Ideal Demand System (LAIDS) model is applied in estimating a system of demand equations for food commodities. A full demand matrix results ...

Chronic Conditions, Workplace Safety, And Job Demands Contribute To Absenteeism And Job Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Jinnett, Kimberly; Schwatka, Natalie; Tenney, Liliana; Brockbank, Claire V S; Newman, Lee S

2017-02-01

An aging workforce, increased prevalence of chronic health conditions, and the potential for longer working lives have both societal and economic implications. We analyzed the combined impact of workplace safety, employee health, and job demands (work task difficulty) on worker absence and job performance. The study sample consisted of 16,926 employees who participated in a worksite wellness program offered by a workers' compensation insurer to their employers-314 large, midsize, and small businesses in Colorado across multiple industries. We found that both workplace safety and employees' chronic health conditions contributed to absenteeism and job performance, but their impact was influenced by the physical and cognitive difficulty of the job. If employers want to reduce health-related productivity losses, they should take an integrated approach to mitigate job-related injuries, promote employee health, and improve the fit between a worker's duties and abilities. Project HOPE—The People-to-People Health Foundation, Inc.

Study for Determining the Testing Condition of Compressor and Turbine System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sri Sudadiyo

2009-01-01

Study for Determining the Testing Condition of Compressor and Turbine System. From the viewpoint of energy system and environment, the concept for nuclear reactors of the generation IV have good potential for electricity and heat generation devices in producing hydrogen. These gas cooled nuclear reactors employ turbine cycle in transferring the heat. To analyses that coolant system, it is proposed a model of compressor and turbine system with power 3 kW. The used working fluid was hydrogen that be burnt with air within combustion chamber, then be expanded through a turbine for getting shaft work that will be used in driving compressor and generator. This study is aimed to determine the optimum testing conditions of gas turbine system. The used method is by applying the balance equations of energy, mass, and momentum. Gas turbine and compressor were placed at the single shaft, in which it was about 55 percent of power output for running the compressor. Under the testing condition for the speed of 20305 rpm, it was obtained thermal efficiency of the turbine cycle approximate 18 % (equal to the Carnot efficiency ratio 65 %), so that it is properly developed for the development of nuclear power installation in supporting the electricity energy demand and it will be very promising for the future facility. (author)

US EPA's photovoltaic demand-side management project. Report for September 1992-July 1993

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kern, E.C.; Spiegel, R.J.

1993-01-01

The paper discusses an investigation of how photovoltaics (PV) may be used as both a pollution-mitigating energy replacement for fossil fuels and a demand-side management (DSM) option to reduce peak electrical demands of commercial and residential buildings. Eleven electric utilities are partners in this first nationwide demonstration of PV DSM. The approach is to install and monitor standardized PV systems in diverse geographic areas with varying solar energy resource and electric power demand, production, and cost conditions. The systems are being monitored for a year to record direct and diffuse irradiance, ambient air temperature, PV power generation, and building loads. Utilities are providing the electric system operations data needed to determine the pollution mitigation and peak demand reduction that can result from the PV electrical power generation

The global anthropogenic gallium system: determinants of demand, supply and efficiency improvements.

Science.gov (United States)

Løvik, Amund N; Restrepo, Eliette; Müller, Daniel B

2015-05-05

Gallium has been labeled as a critical metal due to rapidly growing consumption, importance for low-carbon technologies such as solid state lighting and photovoltaics, and being produced only as a byproduct of other metals (mainly aluminum). The global system of primary production, manufacturing, use and recycling has not yet been described or quantified in the literature. This prevents predictions of future demand, supply and possibilities for efficiency improvements on a system level. We present a description of the global anthropogenic gallium system and quantify the system using a combination of statistical data and technical parameters. We estimated that gallium was produced from 8 to 21% of alumina plants in 2011. The most important applications of gallium are NdFeB permanent magnets, integrated circuits and GaAs/GaP-based light-emitting diodes, demanding 22-37%, 16-27%, and 11-21% of primary metal production, respectively. GaN-based light-emitting diodes and photovoltaics are less important, both with 2-6%. We estimated that 120-170 tons, corresponding to 40-60% of primary production, ended up in production wastes that were either disposed of or stored. While demand for gallium is expected to rise in the future, our results indicated that it is possible to increase primary production substantially with conventional technology, as well as improve the system-wide material efficiency.

Fuel switching in Harare: An almost ideal demand system approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chambwera, Muyeye; Folmer, Henk

2007-01-01

In urban areas several energy choices are available and the amount of (a given type of) fuel consumed is based on complex household decision processes. This paper analyzes urban fuel (particularly firewood) demand in an energy mix context by means of an Almost Ideal Demand System based on a survey carried out among 500 households in Harare in 2003. Using a multi-stage budgeting approach, the model estimates the share of energy in total household expenditure and the shares of firewood, electricity and kerosene in total energy expenditure. Using the model results simulations show that the main policy handles to reduce the demand for firewood and to mitigate environmental degradation such as deforestation include decreasing prices of alternative fuels, notably kerosene. Moreover, in the long run sound economic policy will positively impact on the energy budget whereas education and the degree of electrification will contribute to a reduction of the use of firewood

Energy demand in solar home systems; Demanda energetica em solar home systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Trigoso, Federico Morante

2000-07-01

The central objective of this work is to understand the relationships between the energy demand and technical, economic, social and cultural factors that could influence it. For this a field research was established with the inclusion of 18 families distributed in four communities located in the South Coast of the Vale da Ribeira, Vale da Ribeira. The energy consumption of these families was measured along more than one year and, to facilitate its execution, it was necessary to develop an equipment capable to supply the daily consumption in units of Ampere-hour. This instrument was coupled to the photovoltaic systems in those communities and, besides, it was materialized a methodology of data obtaining that includes the users participation. The obtaining of data manually sought to provide an inter-relationship among the system, the user and the researcher with the purpose of, besides the data purely technicians, to obtain social and cultural information related with the energy uses. Through this methodology it was possible to verify that the energy demand is related with a series of factors that escape from the previous context. It was verified that the social and cultural behavior of the peoples will be reflected overall in the photovoltaic systems operation. The master thesis shows ways to deep in those studies that will be helpful to design methodology that includes all the parameters involved, still ignored. (author)

Considerations for reducing food system energy demand while scaling up urban agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Mohareb, Eugene; Heller, Martin; Novak, Paige; Goldstein, Benjamin; Fonoll, Xavier; Raskin, Lutgarde

2017-12-01

There is an increasing global interest in scaling up urban agriculture (UA) in its various forms, from private gardens to sophisticated commercial operations. Much of this interest is in the spirit of environmental protection, with reduced waste and transportation energy highlighted as some of the proposed benefits of UA; however, explicit consideration of energy and resource requirements needs to be made in order to realize these anticipated environmental benefits. A literature review is undertaken here to provide new insight into the energy implications of scaling up UA in cities in high-income countries, considering UA classification, direct/indirect energy pressures, and interactions with other components of the food-energy-water nexus. This is followed by an exploration of ways in which these cities can plan for the exploitation of waste flows for resource-efficient UA. Given that it is estimated that the food system contributes nearly 15% of total US energy demand, optimization of resource use in food production, distribution, consumption, and waste systems may have a significant energy impact. There are limited data available that quantify resource demand implications directly associated with UA systems, highlighting that the literature is not yet sufficiently robust to make universal claims on benefits. This letter explores energy demand from conventional resource inputs, various production systems, water/energy trade-offs, alternative irrigation, packaging materials, and transportation/supply chains to shed light on UA-focused research needs. By analyzing data and cases from the existing literature, we propose that gains in energy efficiency could be realized through the co-location of UA operations with waste streams (e.g. heat, CO2, greywater, wastewater, compost), potentially increasing yields and offsetting life cycle energy demands relative to conventional approaches. This begs a number of energy-focused UA research questions that explore the

Interaction between daily load demand curve and management of hydro-thermal generation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Granelli, G.; Montagna, M.; Pasini, G.; Innorta, M.; Marannino, P.

1993-01-01

The influence that the behaviour of the daily load demand curve has on the management of a hydro-thermal generation system is considered. The aim of this paper is to show the improvements that can be achieved by suitable load management techniques capable of flattening the load demand curve. The analysis is carried out by using a hydro-thermal scheduling program and a thermal unit dynamic dispatch procedure. The possibility of properly re-committing the available thermal units is also taken into account. The economical and technical convenience of shutting down less economical thermal units operating near the lower generations limits is verified. Finally, some considerations are made about the possible use of the thermal generation incremental costs as a tool for planning the end users' kWh prices, even in the short term. The results refer to a system with characteristics similar to those of the Italian one. In determining the daily load demand curves, the characteristics of load demand in Italy as well as in other European countries are taken into account

[Method for optimal sensor placement in water distribution systems with nodal demand uncertainties].

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Shu-Ming; Wu, Xue; Ouyang, Le-Yan

2013-08-01

The notion of identification fitness was proposed for optimizing sensor placement in water distribution systems. Nondominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II was used to find the Pareto front between minimum overlap of possible detection times of two events and the best probability of detection, taking nodal demand uncertainties into account. This methodology was applied to an example network. The solutions show that the probability of detection and the number of possible locations are not remarkably affected by nodal demand uncertainties, but the sources identification accuracy declines with nodal demand uncertainties.

[Energy and memory efficient calculation of the accommodation demand in the artificial accommodation system].

Science.gov (United States)

Nagel, J A; Beck, C; Harms, H; Stiller, P; Guth, H; Stachs, O; Bretthauer, G

2010-12-01

Presbyopia and cataract are gaining more and more importance in the ageing society. Both age-related complaints are accompanied with a loss of the eye's ability to accommodate. A new approach to restore accommodation is the Artificial Accommodation System, an autonomous micro system, which will be implanted into the capsular bag instead of a rigid intraocular lens. The Artificial Accommodation System will, depending on the actual demand for accommodation, autonomously adapt the refractive power of its integrated optical element. One possibility to measure the demand for accommodation non-intrusively is to analyse eye movements. We present an efficient algorithm, based on the CORDIC technique, to calculate the demand for accommodation from magnetic field sensor data. It can be shown that specialised algorithms significantly shorten calculation time without violating precision requirements. Additionally, a communication strategy for the wireless exchange of sensor data between the implants of the left and right eye is introduced. The strategy allows for a one-sided calculation of the demand for accommodation, resulting in an overall reduction of calculation time by 50 %. The presented methods enable autonomous microsystems, such as the Artificial Accommodation System, to save significant amounts of energy, leading to extended autonomous run-times. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Condition Indicators for Gearbox Condition Monitoring Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Večeř

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Condition monitoring systems for manual transmissions based on vibration diagnostics are widely applied in industry. The systems deal with various condition indicators, most of which are focused on a specific type of gearbox fault. Frequently used condition indicators (CIs are described in this paper. The ability of a selected condition indicator to describe the degree of gearing wear was tested using vibration signals acquired during durability testing of manual transmission with helical gears. 

Optimization of a polygeneration system for energy demands of a livestock farm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mančić Marko V.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available A polygeneration system is an energy system capable of providing multiple utility outputs to meet local demands by application of process integration. This paper addresses the problem of pinpointing the optimal polygeneration energy supply system for the local energy demands of a livestock farm in terms of optimal system configuration and optimal system capacity. The optimization problem is presented and solved for a case study of a pig farm in the paper. Energy demands of the farm, as well as the super-structure of the polygeneration system were modelled using TRNSYS software. Based on the locally available resources, the following polygeneration modules were chosen for the case study analysis: a biogas fired internal combustion engine co-generation module, a gas boiler, a chiller, a ground water source heat pump, solar thermal collectors, photovoltaic collectors, and heat and cold storage. Capacities of the polygeneration modules were used as optimization variables for the TRNSYS-GenOpt optimization, whereas net present value, system primary energy consumption, and CO2 emissions were used as goal functions for optimization. A hybrid system composed of biogas fired internal combustion engine based co-generation system, adsorption chiller solar thermal and photovoltaic collectors, and heat storage is found to be the best option. Optimal heating capacity of the biogas co-generation and adsorption units was found equal to the design loads, whereas the optimal surface of the solar thermal array is equal to the south office roof area, and the optimal surface of the PV array corresponds to the south facing animal housing building rooftop area. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III 42006: Research and development of energy and environmentally highly effective polygeneration systems based on using renewable energy sources

Multi-Agent System-Based Microgrid Operation Strategy for Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Cha, Hee-Jun; Won, Dong-Jun; Kim, Sang-Hyuk; Chung, Il-Yop; Han, Byung-Moon

2015-01-01

The microgrid and demand response (DR) are important technologies for future power grids. Among the variety of microgrid operations, the multi-agent system (MAS) has attracted considerable attention. In a microgrid with MAS, the agents installed on the microgrid components operate optimally by communicating with each other. This paper proposes an operation algorithm for the individual agents of a test microgrid that consists of a battery energy storage system (BESS) and an intelligent load. A...

Multi-Agent System-Based Microgrid Operation Strategy for Demand Response

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hee-Jun Cha

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The microgrid and demand response (DR are important technologies for future power grids. Among the variety of microgrid operations, the multi-agent system (MAS has attracted considerable attention. In a microgrid with MAS, the agents installed on the microgrid components operate optimally by communicating with each other. This paper proposes an operation algorithm for the individual agents of a test microgrid that consists of a battery energy storage system (BESS and an intelligent load. A microgrid central controller to manage the microgrid can exchange information with each agent. The BESS agent performs scheduling for maximum benefit in response to the electricity price and BESS state of charge (SOC through a fuzzy system. The intelligent load agent assumes that the industrial load performs scheduling for maximum benefit by calculating the hourly production cost. The agent operation algorithm includes a scheduling algorithm using day-ahead pricing in the DR program and a real-time operation algorithm for emergency situations using emergency demand response (EDR. The proposed algorithm and operation strategy were implemented both by a hardware-in-the-loop simulation test using OPAL-RT and an actual hardware test by connecting a new distribution simulator.

[Actual conditions of occupational health activities in small-scale enterprises in Japan: system for occupational health, health management and demands by small-scale enterprises].

Science.gov (United States)

Hirata, M; Kumagai, S; Tabuchi, T; Tainaka, H; Andoh, K; Oda, H

1999-11-01

In order to clarify the real conditions of occupational health services (OHS) in small-scale enterprises (SSEs) in Japan, we analyzed questionnaires recovered from 765 SSEs in the area of a city neighboring Osaka City (recovery rate, 69.3%). The SSEs included 358 SSEs with 1 to 4 workers (46.8% of total SSEs), 203 with 5 to 9 (26.5%), 163 with 10 to 29 (21.3%) and 41 with 30 to 49 (5.4%). The main types of businesses were manufacturing (374, 48.9% of total SSEs), wholesale/retail trade/restaurants (153, 20.0%), community, social and personal services (132, 17.3%) and construction (72, 9.4%). Health examinations were performed in 47.7% of SSEs. The reason for the lack of examinations were "shortage of time" (33.3% of SSEs lacking health examination) and "employees do not want to be examined" (28.1%). Some health promotion measures were conducted in 29.2% of SSEs. Health examination (59.0% of SSEs), health promotion (36.5%), measure of mental health (25.9%) and information service for employers and employees (25.5%) were demanded by SSEs as OHS. Financial subsidies and economical incentives were demanded by 46.4% and 28.8% of SSEs, respectively. Regional occupational health center in this area was poorly known among SSEs (8.2%), but health examination (48.4%), information service (37.5%), assessment of work method and advice to improve (19.8%) and environment measurement (12.4%) are demanded of the center by SSEs.

The development of demand elasticity model for demand response in the retail market environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Babar, M.; Nguyen, P.H.; Kamphuis, I.G.

2015-01-01

In the context of liberalized energy market, increase in distributed generation, storage and demand response has expanded the price elasticity of demand, thus causing the addition of uncertainty to the supply-demand chain of power system. In order to cope with the challenges of demand uncertainty

Estimation of demand function on natural gas and study of demand analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Y.D. [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1998-04-01

Demand Function is estimated with several methods about the demand on natural gas, and analyzed per usage. Since the demand on natural gas, which has big share of heating use, has a close relationship with temperature, the inter-season trend of price and income elasticity is estimated considering temperature and economic formation. Per usage response of natural gas demand on the changes of price and income is also estimated. It was estimated that the response of gas demand on the changes of price and income occurs by the change of number of users in long term. In case of the response of unit consumption, only industrial use shows long-term response to price. Since gas price barely responds to the change of exchange rate, it seems to express the price-making mechanism that does not reflect timely the import condition such as exchange rate, etc. 16 refs., 12 figs., 13 tabs.

Demand controlled ventilation in a bathroom

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Dorthe Kragsig; Nielsen, Toke Rammer; Topp, Claus

2008-01-01

consumption during periods where the demand for ventilation is low and poor indoor climate during periods where the demand for ventilation is high. Controlling the ventilation rate by demand can improve the energy performance of the ventilation system and the indoor climate. This paper compares the indoor...... climate and energy consumption of a Constant Air Volume (CAV) system and a Demand Controlled Ventilation (DCV) system for two different bathroom designs. The air change rate of the CAV system corresponded to 0.5h-1. The ventilation rate of the DCV system was controlled by occupancy and by the relative...

Modeling Supermarket Refrigeration Systems for Demand-Side Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jakob Stoustrup

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Modeling of supermarket refrigeration systems for supervisory control in the smart grid is presented in this paper. A modular modeling approach is proposed in which each module is modeled and identified separately. The focus of the work is on estimating the power consumption of the system while estimating the cold reservoir temperatures as well. The models developed for each module as well as for the overall integrated system are validated by real data collected from a supermarket in Denmark. The results show that the model is able to estimate the actual electrical power consumption with a high fidelity. Moreover a simulation benchmark is introduced based on the produced model for demand-side management in smart grid. Finally, a potential application of the proposed benchmark in direct control of the power/energy consumption is presented by a simple simulation example.

Study on the complexity pricing game and coordination of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance demand

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Junhai; Xie, Lei

2016-03-01

The paper focuses on the dynamic pricing game of the duopoly air conditioner market with disturbance in demand and analyzes the influence of disturbance on the dynamic game system. Considering the demand for products, such as air conditioner, varies with different seasons, we assume three cases based on the condition of disturbance, including growth market (Case 1), declining market (Case 2) and completely random market (Case 3). By analyzing these three cases and making comparison among them, the paper shows that the growth market is more sensitive to the changing parameters such as the adjustment variable and the competitive factor than the declining market. It is more difficult to keep the system stable in a growth market. Although the demand is completely random, the dynamic system can reach a stable state, on condition that the adjustment variable is small enough. The results also indicate that the bullwhip effect between the order quantity and the actual demand is weakened gradually along with the price adjustment.

Machine Learning for Identifying Demand Patterns of Home Energy Management Systems with Dynamic Electricity Pricing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Derck Koolen

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Energy management plays a crucial role in providing necessary system flexibility to deal with the ongoing integration of volatile and intermittent energy sources. Demand Response (DR programs enhance demand flexibility by communicating energy market price volatility to the end-consumer. In such environments, home energy management systems assist the use of flexible end-appliances, based upon the individual consumer’s personal preferences and beliefs. However, with the latter heterogeneously distributed, not all dynamic pricing schemes are equally adequate for the individual needs of households. We conduct one of the first large scale natural experiments, with multiple dynamic pricing schemes for end consumers, allowing us to analyze different demand behavior in relation with household attributes. We apply a spectral relaxation clustering approach to show distinct groups of households within the two most used dynamic pricing schemes: Time-Of-Use and Real-Time Pricing. The results indicate that a more effective design of smart home energy management systems can lead to a better fit between customer and electricity tariff in order to reduce costs, enhance predictability and stability of load and allow for more optimal use of demand flexibility by such systems.

Innovation and Demand

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Esben Sloth

2007-01-01

the demand-side of markets in the simplest possible way. This strategy has allowed a gradual increase in the sophistication of supply-side aspects of economic evolution, but the one-sided focus on supply is facing diminishing returns. Therefore, demand-side aspects of economic evolution have in recent years...... received increased attention. The present paper argues that the new emphasis on demand-side factors is quite crucial for a deepened understanding of economic evolution. The major reasons are the following: First, demand represents the core force of selection that gives direction to the evolutionary process....... Second, firms' innovative activities relate, directly or indirectly, to the structure of expected and actual demand. Third, the demand side represents the most obvious way of turning to the much-needed analysis of macro-evolutionary change of the economic system....

Stochastic–multiobjective market equilibrium analysis of a demand response program in energy market under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Ming-Che; Lu, Su-Ying; Chen, Yen-Haw

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Analyze the impact of a demand response program under uncertainty. • Stochastic Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated. • Case study of the Taiwanese electric power market is conducted. • Demand response decreases power price, generation, and emissions. • Demand uncertainty increases energy price and supply risk in the results. - Abstract: In the electricity market, demand response programs are designed to shift peak demand and enhance system reliability. A demand response program can reduce peak energy demand, power transmission congestion, or high energy-price conditions by changing consumption patterns. The purpose of this research is to analyze the impact of a demand response program in the energy market, under demand uncertainty. A stochastic–multiobjective Nash–Cournot competition model is formulated to simulate demand response in an uncertain energy market. Then, Karush–Kuhn–Tucker optimality conditions and a linear complementarity problem are derived for the stochastic Nash–Cournot model. Accordingly, the linear complementarity problem is solved and its stochastic market equilibrium solution is determined by using a general algebraic modeling system. Additionally, the case of the Taiwanese electric power market is taken up here, and the results show that a demand response program is capable of reducing peak energy consumption, energy price, and carbon dioxide emissions. The results show that demand response program decreases electricity price by 2–10%, total electricity generation by 0.5–2%, and carbon dioxide emissions by 0.5–2.5% in the Taiwanese power market. In the simulation, demand uncertainty leads to an 2–7% increase in energy price and supply risk in the market. Additionally, tradeoffs between cost and carbon dioxide emissions are presented.

Absorber and regenerator models for liquid desiccant air conditioning systems. Validation and comparison using experimental data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Krause, M.; Heinzen, R.; Jordan, U.; Vajen, K. [Kassel Univ., Inst. of Thermal Engineering, Kassel (Germany); Saman, W.; Halawa, E. [Sustainable Energy Centre, Univ. of South Australia, Mawson Lakes, Adelaide (Australia)

2008-07-01

Solar assisted air conditioning systems using liquid desiccants represent a promising option to decrease high summer energy demand caused by electrically driven vapor compression machines. The main components of liquid desiccant systems are absorbers for dehumidifying and cooling of supply air and regenerators for concentrating the desiccant. However, high efficient and validated reliable components are required and the design and operation have to be adjusted to each respective building design, location, and user demand. Simulation tools can help to optimize component and system design. The present paper presents new developed numerical models for absorbers and regenerators, as well as experimental data of a regenerator prototype. The models have been compared with a finite-difference method model as well as experimental data. The data are gained from the regenerator prototype presented and an absorber presented in the literature. (orig.)

Two-warehouse partial backlogging inventory model for deteriorating items with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Jaggi, Chandra K.; Khanna, Aditi; Verma, Priyanka

2011-07-01

In today's business transactions, there are various reasons, namely, bulk purchase discounts, re-ordering costs, seasonality of products, inflation induced demand, etc., which force the buyer to order more than the warehouse capacity. Such situations call for additional storage space to store the excess units purchased. This additional storage space is typically a rented warehouse. Inflation plays a very interesting and significant role here: It increases the cost of goods. To safeguard from the rising prices, during the inflation regime, the organisation prefers to keep a higher inventory, thereby increasing the aggregate demand. This additional inventory needs additional storage space, which is facilitated by a rented warehouse. Ignoring the effects of the time value of money and inflation might yield misleading results. In this study, a two-warehouse inventory model with linear trend in demand under inflationary conditions having different rates of deterioration has been developed. Shortages at the owned warehouse are also allowed subject to partial backlogging. The solution methodology provided in the model helps to decide on the feasibility of renting a warehouse. Finally, findings have been illustrated with the help of numerical examples. Comprehensive sensitivity analysis has also been provided.

Model documentation report: Industrial sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Model. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Model for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects. The NEMS Industrial Demand Model is a dynamic accounting model, bringing together the disparate industries and uses of energy in those industries, and putting them together in an understandable and cohesive framework. The Industrial Model generates mid-term (up to the year 2015) forecasts of industrial sector energy demand as a component of the NEMS integrated forecasting system. From the NEMS system, the Industrial Model receives fuel prices, employment data, and the value of industrial output. Based on the values of these variables, the Industrial Model passes back to the NEMS system estimates of consumption by fuel types

Machine learning for identifying demand patterns of home energy management systems with dynamic electricity pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koolen, D. (Derck); Sadat-Razavi, N. (Navid); W. Ketter (Wolfgang)

2017-01-01

textabstractEnergy management plays a crucial role in providing necessary system flexibility to deal with the ongoing integration of volatile and intermittent energy sources. Demand Response (DR) programs enhance demand flexibility by communicating energy market price volatility to the end-consumer.

Simulation Framework for Rebalancing of Autonomous Mobility on Demand Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marczuk Katarzyna A.

2016-01-01

This study is built upon our previous work on Autonomous Mobility on Demand (AMOD systems. Our methodology is simulation-based and we make use of SimMobility, an agent-based microscopic simulation platform. In the current work we focus on the framework for testing different rebalancing policies for the AMOD systems. We compare three different rebalancing methods: (i no rebalancing, (ii offline rebalancing, and (iii online rebalancing. Simulation results indicate that rebalancing reduces the required fleet size and shortens the customers’ wait time.

Optimal real time cost-benefit based demand response with intermittent resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zareen, N.; Mustafa, M.W.; Sultana, U.; Nadia, R.; Khattak, M.A.

2015-01-01

Ever-increasing price of conventional energy resources and related environmental concern enforced to explore alternative energy sources. Inherent uncertainty of power generation and demand being strongly influenced by the electricity market has posed severe challenges for DRPs (Demand Response Programs). Definitely, the success of such uncertain energy systems under new market structures is critically decided by the advancement of innovative technical and financial tools. Recent exponential growth of DG (distributed generations) demanded both the grid reliability and financial cost–benefits analysis for deregulated electricity market stakeholders. Based on the SGT (signaling game theory), the paper presents a novel user-aware demand-management approach where the price are colligated with grid condition uncertainties to manage the peak residential loads. The degree of information disturbances are considered as a key factor for evaluating electricity bidding mechanisms in the presence of independent multi-generation resources and price-elastic demand. A correlation between the cost–benefit price and variable reliability of grid is established under uncertain generation and demand conditions. Impacts of the strategies on load shape, benefit of customers and the reduction of energy consumption are inspected and compared with Time-of-Used based DRPs. Simulation results show that the proposed DRP can significantly reduce or even eliminate peak-hour energy consumption, leading to a substantial raise of revenues with 18% increase in the load reduction and a considerable improvement in system reliability is evidenced. - Highlights: • Proposed an optimal real time cost-benefit based demand response model. • Used signaling game theory for the information disturbances in deregulated market. • Introduced a correlation between the cost–benefit price and variable grid reliability. • Derive robust bidding strategies for utility/customers successful participation. �

Demand for power in Calcutta Electricity Supply Corporation area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Banerjee, N

1980-07-01

Since the early 1970's there has been a continuous crisis of power supply to the Calcutta industrial region. Historical records show that only the peak demand has grown and has a potential for growth, which, with an unchanging base demand, results in a low load factor and consequently inefficient power system operation. Attempts to shift industrial loads by operating industrial plants during non-peak hours are described. Adverse economic conditions eliminated the need for extra working shifts. It is concluded that the power system supplying the Calcutta region has an insufficient peak load generating capacity and an uneconomic load curve and that stricter hourly schedules for power use by industries should be adhered to in order to minimize these problems. (LCL)

A System Architecture for Autonomous Demand Side Load Management in Smart Buildings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Costanzo, Giuseppe Tommaso; Zhu, Guchuan; Anjos, Miguel F.

2012-01-01

This paper presents a system architecture for load management in smart buildings which enables autonomous demand side load management in the smart grid. Being of a layered structure composed of three main modules for admission control, load balancing, and demand response management...... in multiple time-scales and allows seamless integration of diverse techniques for online operation control, optimal scheduling, and dynamic pricing. The design of a home energy manager based on this architecture is illustrated and the simulation results with Matlab/Simulink confirm the viability...

Ontario demand forecast from January 2004 to December 2013

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document examined the demand forecast for electricity on the Independent Market Operator (IMO)-controlled grid in Ontario for the period 2004-2013. It serves as an assessment tool to determine whether existing and proposed generation and transmission facilities in the province will be sufficient to meet future electricity needs. Changes in methodology have been made to allow for an hourly peak versus the previously reported 20-minute peak value. Actual data through to the end of October 2002 was used to re-estimate energy demand. Compared to other developed countries, the outlook for the Canadian economy is optimistic. In addition, the economic forecast is better than that which formed the basis of the last ten-year forecast. Energy demand in the median growth scenario is increasing at an annual rate of 1.1 per cent rather than 0.9 per cent for the forecasted period of 2003-2012. The combination of a higher growth rate and a higher starting point results in a 2010 forecast of 168 TWh. It is expected that peak demand will grow faster than in the previous forecast. Summer peak demand averaging an annual growth of 1.3 per cent is forecasted for the period 2003-2012, with winter peak demand averaging a growth of 0.8 per cent. Under normal weather conditions, the electricity system is expected to peak in the summer of 2005 due to the continued demand for cooling load. However, under an extreme weather scenario, the system is already summer peaking. The improved economic outlook and higher starting point resulted in a higher forecast for energy. The electricity system is expected to winter peak during the first years of the forecasted period. The heating load is not expected to experience rapid growth in the next few years. 15 tabs., 14 figs

THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMPREHENSIVE INSURANCE DEMAND FOR TURKEY USING UTILITY THEORY AND SYSTEM SIMULATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murat KIRKAĞAÇ

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this study, the demand for comprehensive insurance is analysed using utility theory and system simulation. A simulation study is performed to assess the behaviour of individuals with different income levels for the demand of comprehensive insurance. Simulation assumptions and input-output variables are determined using the real data set from a Turkish insurance company and the report about the insurance activities in Turkey for year 2014. The effects of income level, expected claim severity and premium level on the demand for insurance are investigated. It is concluded that while an increase in income level and expected claim severity causes an increase in the demand, an increase in premium level causes a decrease in the demand.

Micro-generation dispatch in a smart residential multi-carrier energy system considering demand forecast error

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanjari, M.J.; Karami, H.; Gooi, H.B.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Combination of day-ahead and hour-ahead optimizations to design online controller. • Investigating the effect of load forecast error on the system operating cost. • Proposing effective method for hour-ahead resource re-dispatch. • Using the HSS algorithm as a powerful and effective optimization method. • Combining long-term and short-term strategies for optimal dispatch of resources. - Abstract: This paper deals with a residential hybrid thermal/electrical grid-connected home energy system incorporating real data for the load demand. A day-ahead scheduling (DAS) algorithm for dispatching different resources has been developed in previous studies to determine the optimal operation scheduling for the distributed energy resources at each time interval so that the operational cost of a smart house is minimized. However, demand of houses may be changed in each hour and cannot be exactly predicted one day ahead. System complexity caused by nonlinear dynamics of the fuel cell, as a combined heat and power device, and battery charging and discharging time make it difficult to find the optimal operating point of the system by using the optimization algorithms quickly in online applications. In this paper, the demand forecast error is studied and a near-optimal dispatch strategy by using artificial neural network (ANN) is proposed for the residential energy system when the demand changes are known one hour ahead with respect to the predicted day-ahead values. The day-ahead and hour-ahead optimizations are combined and ANN training inputs are adjusted according to the problem such that the economic dispatch of different energy resources can be achieved by the proposed method compared with previous studies. Using the model of the fuel cell extracted from experimental measurement and real data for the load demand makes the results more applicable in real residential energy systems.

Electricity demand forecasting techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gnanalingam, K.

1994-01-01

Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

How to introduce demand side resources in the design of low-carbon power systems in China

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Pengcheng; Liu, Yiqun; Zeng, Ming; Sun, Chenjun

2018-04-01

Nowadays, China's energy demand sustained rapid growth, and the coal-based energy structure has adverse effects on the environment. The flexibility of demand side resource (DSR) will be greatly improved, and DSR can reduce electricity consumption actively and temporarily, and realize energy saving and emission reduction. But there are still some problems to introduce DSR in China. This paper proposes three practices for introducing demand side resources to improve the flexibility of power systems through demand resources.

Reducing Inventory System Costs by Using Robust Demand Estimators

OpenAIRE

Raymond A. Jacobs; Harvey M. Wagner

1989-01-01

Applications of inventory theory typically use historical data to estimate demand distribution parameters. Imprecise knowledge of the demand distribution adds to the usual replenishment costs associated with stochastic demands. Only limited research has been directed at the problem of choosing cost effective statistical procedures for estimating these parameters. Available theoretical findings on estimating the demand parameters for (s, S) inventory replenishment policies are limited by their...

Study of Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve in Nordic Power System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhao, Haoran; Wu, Qiuwei; Huang, Shaojun

2016-01-01

This paper investigates the efficacy of Demand Frequency Reserve (DFR) in Nordic power system. Heat pump, due to its switching flexibility, less disturbing impacts to customers and promising future in application, is used to represent DFR in the study. Thermodynamics of the heat pump unit...

Characterising Wildlife Trade Market Supply-Demand Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Rowcliffe, M.; Cowlishaw, G.; Alexander, J. S.; Ntiamoa-Baidu, Y.; Brenya, A.; Milner-Gulland, E. J.

2016-01-01

The trade in wildlife products can represent an important source of income for poor people, but also threaten wildlife locally, regionally and internationally. Bushmeat provides livelihoods for hunters, traders and sellers, protein to rural and urban consumers, and has depleted the populations of many tropical forest species. Management interventions can be targeted towards the consumers or suppliers of wildlife products. There has been a general assumption in the bushmeat literature that the urban trade is driven by consumer demand with hunters simply fulfilling this demand. Using the urban bushmeat trade in the city of Kumasi, Ghana, as a case study, we use a range of datasets to explore the processes driving the urban bushmeat trade. We characterise the nature of supply and demand by explicitly considering three market attributes: resource condition, hunter behaviour, and consumer behaviour. Our results suggest that bushmeat resources around Kumasi are becoming increasingly depleted and are unable to meet demand, that hunters move in and out of the trade independently of price signals generated by the market, and that, for the Kumasi bushmeat system, consumption levels are driven not by consumer choice but by shortfalls in supply and consequent price responses. Together, these results indicate that supply-side processes dominate the urban bushmeat trade in Kumasi. This suggests that future management interventions should focus on changing hunter behaviour, although complementary interventions targeting consumer demand are also likely to be necessary in the long term. Our approach represents a structured and repeatable method to assessing market dynamics in information-poor systems. The findings serve as a caution against assuming that wildlife markets are demand driven, and highlight the value of characterising market dynamics to inform appropriate management. PMID:27632169

Effects of Demand Response on Retail and Wholesale Power Markets

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chassin, David P.; Kalsi, Karanjit

2012-07-26

Demand response has grown to be a part of the repertoire of resources used by utilities to manage the balance between generation and load. In recent years, advances in communications and control technology have enabled utilities to consider continuously controlling demand response to meet generation, rather than the other way around. This paper discusses the economic applications of a general method for load resource analysis that parallels the approach used to analyze generation resources and uses the method to examine the results of the US Department of Energy’s Olympic Peninsula Demonstration Testbed. A market-based closed-loop system of controllable assets is discussed with necessary and sufficient conditions on system controllability, observability and stability derived.

A Demand-Driven Approach for a Multi-Agent System in Supply Chain Management

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchuk, Yevgeniya; Fasli, Maria

This paper presents the architecture of a multi-agent decision support system for Supply Chain Management (SCM) which has been designed to compete in the TAC SCM game. The behaviour of the system is demand-driven and the agents plan, predict, and react dynamically to changes in the market. The main strength of the system lies in the ability of the Demand agent to predict customer winning bid prices - the highest prices the agent can offer customers and still obtain their orders. This paper investigates the effect of the ability to predict customer order prices on the overall performance of the system. Four strategies are proposed and compared for predicting such prices. The experimental results reveal which strategies are better and show that there is a correlation between the accuracy of the models' predictions and the overall system performance: the more accurate the prediction of customer order prices, the higher the profit.

Acceleratory match-play demands of a Super Rugby team over a competitive season.

Science.gov (United States)

Owen, Shaun M; Venter, Rachel E; du Toit, Stephan; Kraak, Wilbur J

2015-01-01

The match-play demands of rugby union have increased over time, and these demands should be quantified so as to provide a basis for optimal player loading during training. The primary aim of this article was to quantify accelerations, decelerations, impacts and aggregated body demands during the first half of match-play in a Super Rugby team. The secondary aim was to determine whether these characteristics are position-specific. Thirty-three players were monitored for 14 matches using global positioning system units with inbuilt microtechnology. Players were grouped according to positional roles and data were analysed for those who completed the entire duration of the first half of a given match. Forwards sustained more (d = 0.44) high-intensity impacts and greater (d = 0.26) aggregated body demands, while backs had more moderate (d = 0.55) and heavy accelerations (d = 0.76), and moderate (d = 0.23) and heavy decelerations (d = 0.54). These differences suggest that conditioning and recovery strategies should reflect the physical demands placed on players in different playing positions. Forwards should be conditioned with a focus on impacts and require longer recovery for the same duration of playing time, whereas conditioning for backs should emphasise rapid accelerations and decelerations.

Predictive routing for autonomous mobility-on-demand systems with ride-sharing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Alonso Mora, J.; Wallar, Alex; Rus, Daniela; Bicchi, A.; Maciejewski, T.

2017-01-01

Ride-sharing, or carpooling, systems with autonomous vehicles will provide efficient and reliable urban mobility on demand. In this work we present a method for dynamic vehicle routing that leverages historical data to improve the performance of a network of self-driving taxis. In particular, we

A Closed-Loop Control Strategy for Air Conditioning Loads to Participate in Demand Response

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoqing Hu

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Thermostatically controlled loads (TCLs, such as air conditioners (ACs, are important demand response resources—they have a certain heat storage capacity. A change in the operating status of an air conditioner in a small range will not noticeably affect the users’ comfort level. Load control of TCLs is considered to be equivalent to a power plant of the same capacity in effect, and it can significantly reduce the system pressure to peak load shift. The thermodynamic model of air conditioning can be used to study the aggregate power of a number of ACs that respond to the step signal of a temperature set point. This paper analyzes the influence of the parameters of each AC in the group to the indoor temperature and the total load, and derives a simplified control model based on the two order linear time invariant transfer function. Then, the stability of the model and designs its Proportional-Integral-Differential (PID controller based on the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm is also studied. The case study presented in this paper simulates both scenarios of constant ambient temperature and changing ambient temperature to verify the proposed transfer function model and control strategy can closely track the reference peak load shifting curves. The study also demonstrates minimal changes in the indoor temperature and the users’ comfort level.

Market architecture and power demand management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rious, Vincent; Roques, Fabien

2014-12-01

Demand response is a cornerstone problem in electricity markets considering climate change constraint. Most liberalized electricity markets have a poor track record at developing demand response. In Europe, different models are considered for demand response, from a development under a regulated regime to a development under competitive perspectives. In this paper, focusing on demand response for mid-size and small consumers, we investigate which types of market signals should be sent to demand response aggregators to see demand response emerge as a competitive activity. Using data from the French power system over eight years, we compare the possible market design options to allow demand response to develop. Our simulations demonstrate that with the current market rules, demand response is not a profitable activity in the French electricity industry. Introducing a capacity remuneration could bring additional revenues to demand response aggregators if the power system has no over-capacity

Modeling Framework and Validation of a Smart Grid and Demand Response System for Wind Power Integration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broeer, Torsten; Fuller, Jason C.; Tuffner, Francis K.; Chassin, David P.; Djilali, Ned

2014-01-31

Electricity generation from wind power and other renewable energy sources is increasing, and their variability introduces new challenges to the power system. The emergence of smart grid technologies in recent years has seen a paradigm shift in redefining the electrical system of the future, in which controlled response of the demand side is used to balance fluctuations and intermittencies from the generation side. This paper presents a modeling framework for an integrated electricity system where loads become an additional resource. The agent-based model represents a smart grid power system integrating generators, transmission, distribution, loads and market. The model incorporates generator and load controllers, allowing suppliers and demanders to bid into a Real-Time Pricing (RTP) electricity market. The modeling framework is applied to represent a physical demonstration project conducted on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, USA, and validation simulations are performed using actual dynamic data. Wind power is then introduced into the power generation mix illustrating the potential of demand response to mitigate the impact of wind power variability, primarily through thermostatically controlled loads. The results also indicate that effective implementation of Demand Response (DR) to assist integration of variable renewable energy resources requires a diversity of loads to ensure functionality of the overall system.

A model of residential energy end-use in Canada: Using conditional demand analysis to suggest policy options for community energy planners

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Newsham, Guy R.; Donnelly, Cara L.

2013-01-01

We applied conditional demand analysis (CDA) to estimate the average annual energy use of various electrical and natural gas appliances, and derived energy reductions associated with certain appliance upgrades and behaviours. The raw data came from 9773 Canadian households, and comprised annual electricity and natural gas use, and responses to >600 questions on dwelling and occupant characteristics, appliances, heating and cooling equipment, and associated behaviours. Replacing an old (>10 years) refrigerator with a new one was estimated to save 100 kW h/year; replacing an incandescent lamp with a CFL/LED lamp was estimated to save 20 kW h/year; and upgrading an old central heating system with a new one was estimated to save 2000 kW h/year. This latter effect was similar to that of reducing the number of walls exposed to the outside. Reducing the winter thermostat setpoint during occupied, waking hours was estimated to lower annual energy use by 200 kW h/°C-reduction, and lowering the thermostat setting overnight in winter relative to the setting during waking hours (night-time setback) was estimated to have a similar effect. This information may be used by policy-makers to optimize incentive programs, information campaigns, or other energy use change instruments. - Highlights: ► Conditional demand analysis (CDA) applied to data from 9773 Canadian households. ► Energy savings associated with certain appliance upgrades estimated. ► Energy savings associated with thermostat behaviours estimated. ► Policy-makers can use findings to optimize incentives and information campaigns

Research on Demand Analysis of the Users of the Senior English Diagnostic System

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Chen; Zhang, Hui; Yao, Qian; Wu, Min

2013-01-01

As the significance of learning English is becoming increasingly apparent, more and more English online practice systems are used by English learners. However, a thorough process of research and detailed analysis of user demand have not fully implemented before the design of these systems. As a result, these systems may suffer the defects of low…

System behaviour modelling for demand response provision in a smart grid

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dave, Saraansh; Sooriyabandara, Mahesh; Yearworth, Mike

2013-01-01

While pilot projects in the smart grid domain have abounded through public and private efforts, there is still uncertainty in identifying effective business models for the smart grid. In this paper we take the view of a new entrant in this market acting as a third party provider of demand response. New entrants are a key player in emerging technological domains but simulation and policy analysis from this perspective have not been forthcoming. We present a novel approach for evaluating business models within a regulatory context and avoid committing to specific technical solutions but instead embark on a parameter exploration through simple yet insightful agent-based models. Our simulations analyse the impact of system performance by three key variables; participant population size, household flexibility in terms of the maximum number of DR events allowed and size of load shifting/shedding available. The simulations indicate that benefits of avoided capital investment leads to valuing a participating household at approximately £1800 over a 20 year period. These results show how mandated infrastructure influenced by policy can affect the value proposition of a demand response service and provide a useful reference for system level parameter requirements. With weak business models, policy decisions can be crucial in providing the impetus needed to spur growth in this market. - Author-Highlights: • We model a demand response (DR) system to analyse interdependence of parameters. • Parameters analysed are number and flexibility of households and size of load shedding. • Challenges in providing a reliable DR service are explored. • A novel approach to evaluate business models for a DR service provider is presented. • The approach simultaneously evaluates business models in a regulatory context

Evaluating Water Demand Using Agent-Based Modeling

Science.gov (United States)

Lowry, T. S.

2004-12-01

The supply and demand of water resources are functions of complex, inter-related systems including hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy. To assess the safety and sustainability of water resources, planners often rely on complex numerical models that relate some or all of these systems using mathematical abstractions. The accuracy of these models relies on how well the abstractions capture the true nature of the systems interactions. Typically, these abstractions are based on analyses of observations and/or experiments that account only for the statistical mean behavior of each system. This limits the approach in two important ways: 1) It cannot capture cross-system disruptive events, such as major drought, significant policy change, or terrorist attack, and 2) it cannot resolve sub-system level responses. To overcome these limitations, we are developing an agent-based water resources model that includes the systems of hydrology, climate, demographics, economics, and policy, to examine water demand during normal and extraordinary conditions. Agent-based modeling (ABM) develops functional relationships between systems by modeling the interaction between individuals (agents), who behave according to a probabilistic set of rules. ABM is a "bottom-up" modeling approach in that it defines macro-system behavior by modeling the micro-behavior of individual agents. While each agent's behavior is often simple and predictable, the aggregate behavior of all agents in each system can be complex, unpredictable, and different than behaviors observed in mean-behavior models. Furthermore, the ABM approach creates a virtual laboratory where the effects of policy changes and/or extraordinary events can be simulated. Our model, which is based on the demographics and hydrology of the Middle Rio Grande Basin in the state of New Mexico, includes agent groups of residential, agricultural, and industrial users. Each agent within each group determines its water usage

A semi-distributed electric demand-side management system with PV generation for self-consumption enhancement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castillo-Cagigal, M.; Gutierrez, A.; Monasterio-Huelin, F.; Caamano-Martin, E.; Masa, D.; Jimenez-Leube, J.

2011-01-01

Highlights: → We have developed a DSM system with PV electricity and battery storage. → To implement the DSM system, we have developed a modular architecture. → Simulations and real experiments have been executed for different weather conditions. → The use of theses technologies increase the self-consumed energy. -- Abstract: This paper presents the operation of an Electrical Demand-Side Management (EDSM) system in a real solar house. The use of EDSM is one of the most important action lines to improve the grid electrical efficiency. The combination between the EDSM and the PV generation performs a new control level in the local electric behavior and allows new energy possibilities. The solar house used as test-bed for the EDSM system owns a PV generator, a lead-acid battery storage system and a grid connection. The electrical appliances are controllable from an embedded computer. The EDSM is implemented by a control system which schedules the tasks commanded by the user. By using the control system, we define the house energy policy and improve the energy behavior with regard to a selected energy criterion, self-consumption. The EDSM system favors self-consumption with regard to a standard user behavior and reduces the energy load from the grid.

Macroeconomic and social change and popular demand for redistribution

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jæger, Mads Meier

This paper tests the self-interest hypothesis arguing that changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect popular demand for redistribution. I analyze data from four waves of the European Social Survey and use a synthetic cohort design to generate pseudo panel data for socio......-demographic groups that are matched over time. I estimate fixed effect models and find that (1) changes in macroeconomic and social conditions affect the demand for redistribution; (2) results are mostly consistent with the self-interest hypothesis claiming that agents demand more redistribution in economically hard...... times (and vice versa in good times); and (3) the effect of macroeconomic and social conditions on the demand for redistribution are highly non-linear....

Health risk air-conditioning system; Insufficient maintenance increases the risk of illness. Gesundheitsrisiko Klimaanlagen; Unzureichende Wartung erhoeht das Erkrankungsrisiko

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon.

1994-01-01

In Germany every fifth employee who works in air-conditioned rooms complains about headache, an increased proneness to colds and influenza infections as well as allergic reactions. These troubles are often caused by the insufficient maintenance of air-conditioning systems. At present only 15% of the estimated annual demand for maintenance of space hvac-systems is actually carried out. Problematic in case of air-conditioning systems are the so-called air washers used for air humidification which can become an ideal cultur medium for microorganisms. A second problematic area are the often very dirty filters. But health risks can be avoided with regular expert maintenance alone. As first step an analysis of the causes of faults is proposed. (BWI)

The World Demand for Catfish Pangasius

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nguyen, Thong Tien; Roth, Eva; Nielsen, Max

2014-01-01

flexibilities are less than 1. While there are many demand studies for other whitefish species and salmon, which are strongly competed by catfish in many markets, there is a lack of demand study for Pangasius catfish. Therefore, this study will supplement seafood demand literature and be meaningful for seafood......In this paper we present a world demand system for Pangasius catfish products. We use solely exporting data from Vietnam for estimating a non-linear Almost Ideal Demand System because Vietnam accounts for more than 90% catfish export value of the world and the products exported are mostly...... in filleted form. The demand system includes seven equations representing for most important markets that are ASEAN & EAST ASIA, NORTH AMERICA, OCEANIA, RUSIAN & EASTERN EU, SOUTH & CENTRAL AMERICA, WESTERN EU, and ROW (rest of the world) markets. The monthly data are updating from January 2007 to March 2014...

Product demand forecasts using wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization in manufacture system

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Qi

2010-03-01

Demand forecasts play a crucial role in supply chain management. The future demand for a certain product is the basis for the respective replenishment systems. Aiming at demand series with small samples, seasonal character, nonlinearity, randomicity and fuzziness, the existing support vector kernel does not approach the random curve of the sales time series in the space (quadratic continuous integral space). In this paper, we present a hybrid intelligent system combining the wavelet kernel support vector machine and particle swarm optimization for demand forecasting. The results of application in car sale series forecasting show that the forecasting approach based on the hybrid PSOWv-SVM model is effective and feasible, the comparison between the method proposed in this paper and other ones is also given, which proves that this method is, for the discussed example, better than hybrid PSOv-SVM and other traditional methods.

Two-step upflow anaerobic sludge bed system for sewage treatment under subtropical conditions with posttreatment in waste stabilization ponds

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seghezzo, L.; Trupiano, A.P.; Liberal, V.; Todd, P.G.; Figueroa, M.E.; Gutierrez, M.A.; Silva Wilches, Da A.C.; Iribarnegaray, M.; Guerra, R.G.; Arena, A.; Cuevas, C.M.; Zeeman, G.; Lettinga, G.

2003-01-01

A pilot-scale sewage treatment system consisting of two upflow anaerobic sludge bed (UASB) reactors followed by five waste stabilization ponds (WSPs) in series was studied under subtropical conditions. The first UASB reactor started up in only 1 mo (stable operation, high chemical oxygen demand

Transshipment policies for systems with multiple retailers and two demand classes

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Atan, Z.; Snyder, L.V.; Wilson, G.R.

2018-01-01

Many retailers discriminate among their customers based on their value to the firm. Instead of losing a customer due to this discrimination or lack of inventory, a retailer might prefer to place a transshipment request with other retailers to satisfy the customer’s demand. The system as a whole can

Metering systems and demand-side management models applied to hybrid renewable energy systems in micro-grid configuration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blasques, L.C.M.; Pinho, J.T.

2012-01-01

This paper proposes a demand-side management model integrated to a metering system for hybrid renewable energy systems in micro-grid configuration. The proposal is based on the management problems verified in most of this kind of renewable hybrid systems installed in Brazil. The main idea is the implementation of a pre-paid metering system with some control functions that directly act on the consumer demand, restricting the consumption proportionally to the monthly availability of renewable energy. The result is a better distribution of the electricity consumption by month and by consumer, preventing that only one user, with larger purchasing power, consumes all the renewable energy available at some time period. The proportionality between the consumption and the renewable energy's availability has the objective to prevent a lack of energy stored and a high use of the diesel generator-set on months of low renewable potential. This paper also aims to contribute to the Brazilian regulation of renewable energy systems supplying micro-grids. - Highlights: ► Review of the Brazilian electricity regulation for small-scale isolated systems. ► Renewable systems are the most feasible option in several isolated communities. ► One proposal is to guarantee government subsidies for renewable energy systems. ► Smart electronic meters to create electricity restrictions for the consumers.

Field demonstration of automated demand response for both winter and summer events in large buildings in the Pacific Northwest

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piette, M.A.; Kiliccote, S.; Dudley, J.H. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA (United States)

2013-11-15

There are growing strains on the electric grid as cooling peaks grow and equipment ages. Increased penetration of renewables on the grid is also straining electricity supply systems and the need for flexible demand is growing. This paper summarizes results of a series of field test of automated demand response systems in large buildings in the Pacific Northwest. The objective of the research was twofold. One objective was to evaluate the use demand response automation technologies. A second objective was to evaluate control strategies that could change the electric load shape in both winter and summer conditions. Winter conditions focused on cold winter mornings, a time when the electric grid is often stressed. The summer test evaluated DR strategies in the afternoon. We found that we could automate both winter and summer control strategies with the open automated demand response communication standard. The buildings were able to provide significant demand response in both winter and summer events.

Dynamic Pricing in Cloud Manufacturing Systems under Combined Effects of Consumer Structure, Negotiation, and Demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Peng

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this study, we proposed a game-theory based framework to model the dynamic pricing process in the cloud manufacturing (CMfg system. We considered a service provider (SP, a broker agent (BA, and a dynamic service demander (SD population that is composed of price takers and bargainers in this study. The pricing processes under linear demand and constant elasticity demand were modeled, respectively. The combined effects of SD population structure, negotiation, and demand forms on the SP’s and the BA’s equilibrium prices and expected revenues were examined. We found that the SP’s optimal wholesale price, the BA’s optimal reservation price, and posted price all increase with the proportion of price takers under linear demand but decrease with it under constant elasticity demand. We also found that the BA’s optimal reservation price increases with bargainers’ power no matter under what kind of demand. Through analyzing the participants’ revenues, we showed that a dynamic SD population with a high ratio of price takers would benefit the SP and the BA.

The integration of Price Responsive Demand into Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) wholesale power markets and system operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Centolella, Paul

2010-01-01

A number of states and utilities are pursuing demand response based on dynamic and time-differentiated retail prices and utility investments in Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI), often as part of Smart Grid initiatives. These developments could produce large amounts of Price Responsive Demand, demand that predictably responds to changes in wholesale prices. Price Responsive Demand could provide significant reliability and economic benefits. However, existing RTO tariffs present potential barriers to the development of Price Responsive Demand. Effectively integrating Price Responsive Demand into RTO markets and operations will require changes in demand forecasting, scarcity pricing reform, synchronization of scarcity pricing with capacity markets, tracking voluntary hedging by price responsive loads, and a non-discriminatory approach in curtailments in capacity emergencies. The article describes changes in RTO policies and systems needed incorporate Price Responsive Demand. (author)

Flexible Demand Management under Time-Varying Prices

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, Yong

In this dissertation, the problem of flexible demand management under time-varying prices is studied. This generic problem has many applications, which usually have multiple periods in which decisions on satisfying demand need to be made, and prices in these periods are time-varying. Examples of such applications include multi-period procurement problem, operating room scheduling, and user-end demand scheduling in the Smart Grid, where the last application is used as the main motivating story throughout the dissertation. The current grid is experiencing an upgrade with lots of new designs. What is of particular interest is the idea of passing time-varying prices that reflect electricity market conditions to end users as incentives for load shifting. One key component, consequently, is the demand management system at the user-end. The objective of the system is to find the optimal trade-off between cost saving and discomfort increment resulted from load shifting. In this dissertation, we approach this problem from the following aspects: (1) construct a generic model, solve for Pareto optimal solutions, and analyze the robust solution that optimizes the worst-case payoffs, (2) extend to a distribution-free model for multiple types of demand (appliances), for which an approximate dynamic programming (ADP) approach is developed, and (3) design other efficient algorithms for practical purposes of the flexible demand management system. We first construct a novel multi-objective flexible demand management model, in which there are a finite number of periods with time-varying prices, and demand arrives in each period. In each period, the decision maker chooses to either satisfy or defer outstanding demand to minimize costs and discomfort over a certain number of periods. We consider both the deterministic model, models with stochastic demand or prices, and when only partial information about the stochastic demand or prices is known. We first analyze the stochastic

Co-Adapting Water Demand and Supply to Changing Climate in Agricultural Water Systems, A Case Study in Northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Mainardi, M.; Arias Munoz, C.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

2013-12-01

Exponentially growing water demands and increasing uncertainties in the hydrologic cycle due to changes in climate and land use will challenge water resources planning and management in the next decade. Improving agricultural productivity is particularly critical, being this sector the one characterized by the highest water demand. Moreover, to meet projected growth in human population and per-capita food demand, agricultural production will have to significantly increase in the next decades, even though water availability is expected to decrease due to climate change impacts. Agricultural systems are called to adapt their strategies (e.g., changing crop patterns and the corresponding water demand, or maximizing the efficiency in the water supply modifying irrigation scheduling and adopting high efficiency irrigation techniques) in order to re-optimize the use of limited water resources. Although many studies have assessed climate change impacts on agricultural practices and water management, most of them assume few scenarios of water demand or water supply separately, while an analysis of their reciprocal feedbacks is still missing. Moreover, current practices are generally established according to historical agreements and normative constraints and, in the absence of dramatic failures, the shift toward more efficient water management is not easily achievable. In this work, we propose to activate an information loop between farmers and water managers to improve the effectiveness of agricultural water management practices by matching the needs of the farmers with the design of water supply strategies. The proposed approach is tested on a real-world case study, namely the Lake Como serving the Muzza-Bassa Lodigiana irrigation district (Italy). A distributed-parameter, dynamic model of the system allows to simulate crop growth and the final yield over a range of hydro-climatic conditions, irrigation strategies and water-related stresses. The spatial component of the

75 FR 15362 - Demand Response Compensation in Organized Wholesale Energy Markets

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-29

.... We propose that Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) \\3... resource means a resource capable of providing demand response. 18 CFR 35.28(b)(5). \\3\\ The following RTOs... and RTOs administer for reliability or emergency conditions, such as, for instance, Midwest ISO's...

Hybrid systems to address seasonal mismatches between electricity production and demand in nuclear renewable electrical grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forsberg, Charles

2013-01-01

A strategy to enable zero-carbon variable electricity production with full utilization of renewable and nuclear energy sources has been developed. Wind and solar systems send electricity to the grid. Nuclear plants operate at full capacity with variable steam to turbines to match electricity demand with production (renewables and nuclear). Excess steam at times of low electricity prices and electricity demand go to hybrid fuel production and storage systems. The characteristic of these hybrid technologies is that the economic penalties for variable nuclear steam inputs are small. Three hybrid systems were identified that could be deployed at the required scale. The first option is the gigawatt-year hourly-to-seasonal heat storage system where excess steam from the nuclear plant is used to heat rock a kilometer underground to create an artificial geothermal heat source. The heat source produces electricity on demand using geothermal technology. The second option uses steam from the nuclear plant and electricity from the grid with high-temperature electrolysis (HTR) cells to produce hydrogen and oxygen. Hydrogen is primarily for industrial applications; however, the HTE can be operated in reverse using hydrogen for peak electricity production. The third option uses variable steam and electricity for shale oil production. -- Highlights: •A system is proposed to meet variable hourly to seasonal electricity demand. •Variable solar and wind electricity sent to the grid. •Base-load nuclear plants send variable steam for electricity and hybrid systems. •Hybrid energy systems can economically absorb gigawatts of variable steam. •Hybrid systems include geothermal heat storage, hydrogen, and shale-oil production

An Optimization Model for Large–Scale Wind Power Grid Connection Considering Demand Response and Energy Storage Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhongfu Tan

2014-11-01

Full Text Available To reduce the influence of wind power output uncertainty on power system stability, demand response (DRPs and energy storage systems (ESSs are introduced while solving scheduling optimization problems. To simulate wind power scenarios, this paper uses Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS to generate the initial scenario set and constructs a scenario reduction strategy based on Kantorovich distance. Since DRPs and ESSs can influence the distribution of demand load, this paper constructs a joint scheduling optimization model for wind power, ESSs and DRPs under the objective of minimizing total coal cost, and constraints of power demand and supply balance, users’ demand elasticity, thermal units’ startup-shutdown, thermal units’ output power climbing and wind power backup service. To analyze the influences of ESSs and DRPs on system wind power consumption capacity, example simulation is made in a 10 thermal units system with a 1000 MW wind farm and 400 MW energy storage systems under four simulation scenarios. The simulation results show that the introduction of DRPs and ESSs could promote system wind power consumption capacity with significantly economic and environment benefits, which include less coal consumption and less pollutant emission; and the optimization effect reaches the optimum when DRPs and ESSs are both introduced.

Input subsidies and demand for improved maize : relative prices and household heterogeneity matter!

OpenAIRE

Holden, Stein Terje

2013-01-01

This study uses simple non-separable farm household models calibrated to household, market, farming and policy context conditions in Central and Southern Malawi. The models are used to simulate how household characteristics, design and access to input subsidies affect the demand for improved maize seeds; how increasing land scarcity affects the cropping system and demand for improved maize; and how access to improved maize seeds affects household welfare with varying access to input subsidies...

Impact of Demand Side Response on a Commercial Retail Refrigeration System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ibrahim M. Saleh

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The UK National Grid has placed increased emphasis on the development of Demand Side Response (DSR tariff mechanisms to manage load at peak times. Refrigeration systems, along with HVAC, are estimated to consume 14% of the UK’s electricity and could have a significant role for DSR application. However, characterized by relatively low individual electrical loads and massive asset numbers, multiple low power refrigerators need aggregation for inclusion in these tariffs. In this paper, the impact of the Demand Side Response (DSR control mechanisms on food retailing refrigeration systems is investigated. The experiments are conducted in a test-rig built to resemble a typical small supermarket store. The paper demonstrates how the temperature and pressure profiles of the system, the active power and the drawn current of the compressors are affected following a rapid shut down and subsequent return to normal operation as a response to a DSR event. Moreover, risks and challenges associated with primary and secondary Firm Frequency Response (FFR mechanisms, where the load is rapidly shed at high speed in response to changes in grid frequency, is considered. For instance, measurements are included that show a significant increase in peak inrush currents of approx. 30% when the system returns to normal operation at the end of a DSR event. Consideration of how high inrush currents after a DSR event can produce voltage fluctuations of the supply and we assess risks to the local power supply system.

An Automation System for Optimizing a Supply Chain Network Design under the Influence of Demand Uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Polany, Rany

2012-01-01

This research develops and applies an integrated hierarchical framework for modeling a multi-echelon supply chain network design, under the influence of demand uncertainty. The framework is a layered integration of two levels: macro, high-level scenario planning combined with micro, low-level Monte Carlo simulation of uncertainties in demand. To facilitate rapid simulation of the effects of demand uncertainty, the integrated framework was implemented as a dashboard automation system using Mic...

Effect of operation conditions of the drop-on-demand aerosol generator on aerosol characteristics: Pseudo-cinematographic and plasma mass spectrometric studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orlandini von Niessen, Jan O.; Krone, Karin M.; Bings, Nicolas H.

2014-01-01

The recently presented drop-on-demand (DOD) aerosol generator overcomes some of the drawbacks of pneumatic nebulization, as its aerosol is no longer generated by gas–liquid interaction. In the current study, an advanced imaging technique is presented, based on a CCD camera equipped with magnifying telecentric optics to allow for fast, automated and precise aerosol characterization as well as fundamental studies on the droplet generation processes by means of pseudo-cinematography. The DOD aerosol generator is thoroughly characterized regarding its droplet size distribution, which shows few distinct populations rather than a continuous distribution. Other important figures, such as the Sauter diameter (D 3,2 ) of 22 μm and the span of 0.4 were also determined. Additionally, the influence of the electrical operation conditions of the dosing device on the aerosol generation process is described. The number and volume of the generated droplets were found to be very reproducible and user-variable, e.g. from 17 to 27 μm (D 3,2 ), within a span of 0.07–0.89. The performances of different setups of the DOD as liquid sample introduction system in ICP-MS are correlated to the respective achievable aerosol characteristics and are also compared to the performance of a state-of-the-art μ-flow nebulizer (EnyaMist). The DOD system allowed for improved sensitivity, but slightly elevated signal noise and overall comparable limits of detection. The results are critically discussed and future directions are outlined. - Graphical abstract: Further characterization of the drop-on-demand aerosol generator for sample introduction in atomic spectrometry. - Highlights: • Significantly improved ICP-MS sensitivity using the DOD vs. EnyaMist. • Comparable detection limits but slightly worse short-term precision. • Superior flexibility compared with conventional/miniaturized pneumatic nebulizers. • Electrical operation conditions of the DOD influence aerosol characteristics. �

Effect of operation conditions of the drop-on-demand aerosol generator on aerosol characteristics: Pseudo-cinematographic and plasma mass spectrometric studies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Orlandini von Niessen, Jan O.; Krone, Karin M.; Bings, Nicolas H., E-mail: bings@uni-mainz.de

2014-02-01

The recently presented drop-on-demand (DOD) aerosol generator overcomes some of the drawbacks of pneumatic nebulization, as its aerosol is no longer generated by gas–liquid interaction. In the current study, an advanced imaging technique is presented, based on a CCD camera equipped with magnifying telecentric optics to allow for fast, automated and precise aerosol characterization as well as fundamental studies on the droplet generation processes by means of pseudo-cinematography. The DOD aerosol generator is thoroughly characterized regarding its droplet size distribution, which shows few distinct populations rather than a continuous distribution. Other important figures, such as the Sauter diameter (D{sub 3,2}) of 22 μm and the span of 0.4 were also determined. Additionally, the influence of the electrical operation conditions of the dosing device on the aerosol generation process is described. The number and volume of the generated droplets were found to be very reproducible and user-variable, e.g. from 17 to 27 μm (D{sub 3,2}), within a span of 0.07–0.89. The performances of different setups of the DOD as liquid sample introduction system in ICP-MS are correlated to the respective achievable aerosol characteristics and are also compared to the performance of a state-of-the-art μ-flow nebulizer (EnyaMist). The DOD system allowed for improved sensitivity, but slightly elevated signal noise and overall comparable limits of detection. The results are critically discussed and future directions are outlined. - Graphical abstract: Further characterization of the drop-on-demand aerosol generator for sample introduction in atomic spectrometry. - Highlights: • Significantly improved ICP-MS sensitivity using the DOD vs. EnyaMist. • Comparable detection limits but slightly worse short-term precision. • Superior flexibility compared with conventional/miniaturized pneumatic nebulizers. • Electrical operation conditions of the DOD influence aerosol

Bulk electric system reliability evaluation incorporating wind power and demand side management

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Dange

correlations and the interactive effects of wind power and load forecast uncertainty on system reliability are examined. The concept of the security cost associated with operating in the marginal state in the well-being framework is incorporated in the economic analyses associated with system expansion planning including wind power and load forecast uncertainty. Overall reliability cost/worth analyses including security cost concepts are applied to select an optimal wind power injection strategy in a bulk electric system. The effects of the various demand side management measures on system reliability are illustrated using the system, load point, and well-being indices, and the reliability index probability distributions. The reliability effects of demand side management procedures in a bulk electric system including wind power and load forecast uncertainty considerations are also investigated. The system reliability effects due to specific demand side management programs are quantified and examined in terms of their reliability benefits.

A comparison of economic demand and conditioned-cued reinstatement of methamphetamine- or food-seeking in rats

Science.gov (United States)

Galuska, Chad M.; Banna, Kelly M.; Willse, Lena Vaughn; Yahyavi-Firouz-Abadi, Noushin; See, Ronald E.

2011-01-01

The present study examined whether continued access to methamphetamine or food reinforcement changed economic demand for both. The relationship between demand elasticity and cue-induced reinstatement was also determined. Male Long-Evans rats lever-pressed under increasing fixed-ratio requirements for either food pellets or methamphetamine (20 μg/50 μl infusion). For two groups, demand curves were obtained before and after continued access (12 days, 2-hr sessions) to the reinforcer under a fixed-ratio 3 schedule. A third group was given continued access to methamphetamine between determinations of food demand and a fourth group abstained from methamphetamine between determinations. All groups underwent extinction sessions, followed by a cue-induced reinstatement test. Although food demand was less elastic than methamphetamine demand, continued access to methamphetamine shifted the methamphetamine demand curve upward and the food demand curve downward. In some rats, methamphetamine demand also became less elastic. Continued access to food had no effect on food demand. Reinstatement was higher after continued access to methamphetamine relative to food. For methamphetamine, elasticity and reinstatement measures were correlated. We conclude that continued access to methamphetamine – but not food – alters demand in ways suggestive of methamphetamine accruing reinforcing strength. Demand elasticity and reinstatement measures appear to be related indices of drug-seeking. PMID:21597363

Demand-driven biogas production from sugar beet silage in a novel fixed bed disc reactor under mesophilic and thermophilic conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Terboven, Christiane; Ramm, Patrice; Herrmann, Christiane

2017-10-01

A newly developed fixed bed disc reactor (FBDR) which combines biofilm formation on biofilm carriers and reactor agitation in one single system was assessed for its applicability to demand-driven biogas production by variable feeding of sugar beet silage. Five different feeding patterns were studied at an organic loading of 4g VS L -1 d -1 under mesophilic and thermophilic conditions. High methane yields of 449-462L N kg VS were reached. Feeding variable punctual loadings caused immediate response with 1.2- to 3.5-fold increase in biogas production rates within 15min. Although variable feeding did not induce process instability, a temporary decrease in pH-value and methane concentration below 40% occurred. Thermophilic temperature was advantageous as it resulted in a more rapid, higher methane production and less pronounced decrease in methane content after feeding. The FBDR was demonstrated to be well-suited for flexible biogas production, but further research and comparison with traditional reactor systems are required. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transshipment policies for systems with multiple retailers and two demand classes

OpenAIRE

Atan, Z.; Snyder, L.V.; Wilson, G.R.

2018-01-01

Many retailers discriminate among their customers based on their value to the firm. Instead of losing a customer due to this discrimination or lack of inventory, a retailer might prefer to place a transshipment request with other retailers to satisfy the customer’s demand. The system as a whole can benefit from this type of transshipments. In this paper, we study a problem of a centrally controlled system with multiple retailers. Each retailer serves two types of customers: high priority and ...

Demand Response Spinning Reserve Demonstration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eto, Joseph H.; Nelson-Hoffman, Janine; Torres, Carlos; Hirth,Scott; Yinger, Bob; Kueck, John; Kirby, Brendan; Bernier, Clark; Wright,Roger; Barat, A.; Watson, David S.

2007-05-01

The Demand Response Spinning Reserve project is a pioneeringdemonstration of how existing utility load-management assets can providean important electricity system reliability resource known as spinningreserve. Using aggregated demand-side resources to provide spinningreserve will give grid operators at the California Independent SystemOperator (CAISO) and Southern California Edison (SCE) a powerful, newtool to improve system reliability, prevent rolling blackouts, and lowersystem operating costs.

Research on electricity market operation mechanism and its benefit of demand side participation

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shuai; Yan, Xu; Qin, Li-juan; Lin, Xi-qiao; Zeng, Bo

2017-08-01

Demand response plays an important role in maintaining the economic stability of the system, and has the characteristics of high efficiency, low cost, fast response, good environmental benefits and so on. Demand side resource is an important part of electricity market. The research of demand side resources in our country is still in the initial stage, but the opening of the electricity sales side provides a broad prospect for the development of electricity market. This paper summarizes the main types of demand side resources in our country, analyzes the economic principle of demand response from the micro perspective, puts forward some suggestions on the operation mechanism of China’s demand side resources participating in the electricity market under the condition of electricity sales side opening, analyzes the current situation of pricing in the electricity wholesale market and sets up the pricing strategy of the centralized wholesale market with the demand side power supply participating in quotation, which makes the social and economic benefits reach the maximum.

Effective production planning for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand: MRP Vs demand-driven MRP

Science.gov (United States)

Shofa, M. J.; Moeis, A. O.; Restiana, N.

2018-04-01

MRP as a production planning system is appropriate for the deterministic environment. Unfortunately, most production systems such as customer demands are stochastic, so that MRP is inappropriate at the time. Demand-Driven MRP (DDMRP) is new approach for production planning system dealing with demand uncertainty. The objective of this paper is to compare the MRP and DDMRP for purchased part under long lead time and uncertain demand in terms of average inventory levels. The evaluation is conducted through a discrete event simulation with the long lead time and uncertain demand scenarios. The next step is evaluating the performance of DDMRP by comparing the inventory level of DDMRP with MRP. As result, DDMRP is more effective production planning than MRP in terms of average inventory levels.

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Valin, Hugo; Sands, Ronald; van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Nelson, Gerald; Ahammad, Helal; Blanc, Elodie; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Heyhoe, Edwina; Kyle, G. Page; Mason d' Croz, Daniel; Paltsev, S.; Rolinski, Susanne; Tabeau, Andrzej; van Meijl, Hans; von Lampe, Martin; Willenbockel, Dirk

2014-01-01

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires a good prospective vision on the future development of food demand. This paper reviews modeling approaches from ten global economic models participating to the AgMIP project, in particular the demand function chosen and the set of parameters used. We compare food demand projections at the horizon 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios. Depending on models, we find for a business as usual scenario (SSP2) an increase in food demand of 59-98% by 2050, slightly higher than FAO projection (54%). The prospective for animal calories is particularly uncertain with a range of 61-144%, whereas FAO anticipates an increase by 76%. The projections reveal more sensitive to socio-economic assumptions than to climate change conditions or bioenergy development. When considering a higher population lower economic growth world (SSP3), consumption per capita drops by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. Various assumptions on climate change in this exercise do not lead to world calorie losses greater than 6%. Divergences across models are however notable, due to differences in demand system, income elasticities specification, and response to price change in the baseline.

ANALYZING THE POSTPONEMENT OF TIME PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MAKE-TO-STOCK AND SEASONAL DEMAND

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paulo Cesar Chagas Rodrigues

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The supply chain management, postponement and demand management functions are of strategic importance to the economic success of organizations because they influence the production process, when viewed in isolation and empirically may hinder understanding of their behavior. The aim of this paper is to analyze the influence of the postponement in an enterprise production system with make-to-stock and with seasonal demand. The research method used was a case study, the instruments of data collection were semi-structured interviews, documentary analysis and site visits. This research is restricted to analysis of the influence that different levels of delay and the company's position in the supply chain have on the practice of demand management in the productive segment graphic, product spiral notebook and also in relation to geographical focus (region of the state São Paulo, in which it will seek to interview the managers and directors. As a way to support the research on the analysis of case study and the final considerations will be discussed the following issues: supply chain management, postponement, demand management and production system make-to-stock. The demand management can be understood as a practice that allows you to manage and coordinate the supply chain in reverse, i.e. the consumer to the supplier, in which consumers trigger actions for the supply of products can make the process more efficient. The purpose of managing the supply chain is able to allow the addition of value, exceeding the expectations of consumers, it is necessary to develop a relationship with suppliers and customers win-win. The postponement strategy must fit the characteristics of the turbulent environment within the markets along with demands that require variety of customized products and services and reasonable costs, aiming to support decision making. The postponement of time can be a way to soften the increase in inventory of finished product in the company

Development of a demand assignment/TDMA system for international business satellite communications

Science.gov (United States)

Nohara, Mitsuo; Takeuchi, Yoshio; Takahata, Fumio; Hirata, Yasuo; Yamazaki, Yoshiharu

An experimental IBS (international business satellite) communications system based on a demand assignment and TDMA (time-division multiple-access) operation has been developed. The system utilizes a limited satellite resource efficiently and provides various kinds of ISDN services totally. A discussion is presented of the IBS network configurations suitable to international communications and describes the developed communications system from the viewpoint of the hardware and software implementation. The performance in terms of the transmission quality and call processing is also demonstrated.

Deterministic and heuristic models of forecasting spare parts demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan S. Milojević

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Knowing the demand of spare parts is the basis for successful spare parts inventory management. Inventory management has two aspects. The first one is operational management: acting according to certain models and making decisions in specific situations which could not have been foreseen or have not been encompassed by models. The second aspect is optimization of the model parameters by means of inventory management. Supply items demand (asset demand is the expression of customers' needs in units in the desired time and it is one of the most important parameters in the inventory management. The basic task of the supply system is demand fulfillment. In practice, demand is expressed through requisition or request. Given the conditions in which inventory management is considered, demand can be: - deterministic or stochastic, - stationary or nonstationary, - continuous or discrete, - satisfied or unsatisfied. The application of the maintenance concept is determined by the technological level of development of the assets being maintained. For example, it is hard to imagine that the concept of self-maintenance can be applied to assets developed and put into use 50 or 60 years ago. Even less complex concepts cannot be applied to those vehicles that only have indicators of engine temperature - those that react only when the engine is overheated. This means that the maintenance concepts that can be applied are the traditional preventive maintenance and the corrective maintenance. In order to be applied in a real system, modeling and simulation methods require a completely regulated system and that is not the case with this spare parts supply system. Therefore, this method, which also enables the model development, cannot be applied. Deterministic models of forecasting are almost exclusively related to the concept of preventive maintenance. Maintenance procedures are planned in advance, in accordance with exploitation and time resources. Since the timing

Modeling real-time balancing power demands in wind power systems using stochastic differential equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Olsson, Magnus; Perninge, Magnus; Soeder, Lennart

2010-01-01

The inclusion of wind power into power systems has a significant impact on the demand for real-time balancing power due to the stochastic nature of wind power production. The overall aim of this paper is to present probabilistic models of the impact of large-scale integration of wind power on the continuous demand in MW for real-time balancing power. This is important not only for system operators, but also for producers and consumers since they in most systems through various market solutions provide balancing power. Since there can occur situations where the wind power variations cancel out other types of deviations in the system, models on an hourly basis are not sufficient. Therefore the developed model is in continuous time and is based on stochastic differential equations (SDE). The model can be used within an analytical framework or in Monte Carlo simulations. (author)

Analysis of Japanese energy demand structure based on the interindustry-relations table

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kanai, Akira; Kashihara, Toshinori

1990-01-01

Matching of energy-supply system and demand system is very important in dealing with the energy problem. Especially the energy-demand system is important for determing the quantity and quality of the energy demand. The energy demand is created by activities of industry and human life. The best materials which describe these activity conditions is the interindustry-relations table. Authors rely on this table as the basic data for assuming the energy demand analysis of energy system. The defect of this table is that an industrial classification differs in publishing years. So the table is lacking in the time sequential consistency. Therefore we discuss the method to improve the defect in consistency. In addition, this report analyses the energy demand structure in Japan according to the improved method. The research is done by the following procedure, 1. The unified common sector data is made so that an industrial classification in the interindustry-relations tables become common. 2. The quantity of input energy in each section is extracted from the tables. 3. The input energy is converted into the characteristic indicator and the calorific indicator. 4. The section is united using the common sector data. 5. The result is shown in table or graph. 6. The energy demand structure is analyzed based on the tables and the graphs. This interindustry-relations table is offered by request in the form of the magnetic tape. All the data is processed by computer due to the abundant amount of data. This report shows the idea how to process the fable instead of displaying the details. In addition, the problem in the analysis of the table is pointed out as results of the analysis. This report describes the feature of 23-sections classification in analysis of the energy demand structure. This report offers a basic data to make energy scenario to the energy system analysists. (J.P.N.)

Using Imperfect Advance Demand Information in Lost-Sales Inventory Systems with the Option of Returning Inventory

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Topan, Engin; Tan, Tarkan; van Houtum, Geert-Jan; Dekker, Rommert

2018-01-01

Motivated by real-life applications, we consider an inventory system where it is possible to collect information about the quantity and timing of future demand in advance. However, this advance demand information (ADI) is imperfect because (i) it may turn out to be false, (ii) a time interval is

DeMand: A tool for evaluating and comparing device-level demand and supply forecast models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neupane, Bijay; Siksnys, Laurynas; Pedersen, Torben Bach

2016-01-01

Fine-grained device-level predictions of both shiftable and non-shiftable energy demand and supply is vital in order to take advantage of Demand Response (DR) for efficient utilization of Renewable Energy Sources. The selection of an effective device-level load forecast model is a challenging task......, mainly due to the diversity of the models and the lack of proper tools and datasets that can be used to validate them. In this paper, we introduce the DeMand system for fine-tuning, analyzing, and validating the device-level forecast models. The system offers several built-in device-level measurement...... datasets, forecast models, features, and errors measures, thus semi-automating most of the steps of the forecast model selection and validation process. This paper presents the architecture and data model of the DeMand system; and provides a use-case example on how one particular forecast model...

Managing the demands of the preregistration mental health nursing programme: The views of students with mental health conditions.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramluggun, Pras; Lacy, Mary; Cadle, Martha; Anjoyeb, Mahmood

2018-05-30

An increasing number of students with a pre-existing mental health condition are enrolling on preregistration mental health nursing programmes. The challenges faced by these students in managing the demands of the programme have not been fully explored. Mental health and well-being is an integral part of providing a healthy university in which students can flourish. The purpose of the study was to explore how students with an underlying mental health issue manage the demands of the mental health nursing programme. The outcomes of the study are aimed at informing inclusive teaching and learning and current student support provision. Ethics approval was given. Students from two universities in South East England who met the criterion of having a pre-existing mental health condition when enrolling on the mental health preregistration nursing programme were invited to take part. Nine students took part in the study. Using an interpretative descriptive design, 1:1 face-to-face, audio-taped, semistructured interviews were undertaken. The data were analysed using a framework approach, and this revealed four main themes: timing of disclosure; managing lived experience in learning environments; students' coping mechanisms, and experience of support. Recommendations for practice was that approved education institutes (AEIs) should ensure they have a robust, inclusive practice by implementing strategies to develop these students' resilience, and enhance their learning and the current support provisions. This will ensure the barriers to disclosing their mental health conditions are recognized and minimized to enable these students to fully contribute to their own learning and teaching experience. © 2018 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Optimal Sizing of Hybrid Renewable Energy Systems: An Application for Real Demand in Qatar Remote Area

Science.gov (United States)

Alyafei, Nora

Renewable energy (RE) sources are becoming popular for power generations due to advances in renewable energy technologies and their ability to reduce the problem of global warming. However, their supply varies in availability (as sun and wind) and the required load demand fluctuates. Thus, to overcome the uncertainty issues of RE power sources, they can be combined with storage devices and conventional energy sources in a Hybrid Power Systems (HPS) to satisfy the demand load at any time. Recently, RE systems received high interest to take advantage of their positive benefits such as renewable availability and CO2 emissions reductions. The optimal design of a hybrid renewable energy system is mostly defined by economic criteria, but there are also technical and environmental criteria to be considered to improve decision making. In this study three main renewable sources of the system: photovoltaic arrays (PV), wind turbine generators (WG) and waste boilers (WB) are integrated with diesel generators and batteries to design a hybrid system that supplies the required demand of a remote area in Qatar using heuristic approach. The method utilizes typical year data to calculate hourly output power of PV, WG and WB throughout the year. Then, different combinations of renewable energy sources with battery storage are proposed to match hourly demand during the year. The design which satisfies the desired level of loss of power supply, CO 2 emissions and minimum costs is considered as best design.

Joint energy demand and thermal comfort optimization in photovoltaic-equipped interconnected microgrids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baldi, Simone; Karagevrekis, Athanasios; Michailidis, Iakovos T.; Kosmatopoulos, Elias B.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Energy efficient operation of photovoltaic-equipped interconnected microgrids. • Optimized energy demand for a block of heterogeneous buildings with different sizes. • Multiobjective optimization: matching demand and supply taking into account thermal comfort. • Intelligent control mechanism for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning units. • Optimization of energy consumption and thermal comfort at the aggregate microgrid level. - Abstract: Electrical smart microgrids equipped with small-scale renewable-energy generation systems are emerging progressively as an alternative or an enhancement to the central electrical grid: due to the intermittent nature of the renewable energy sources, appropriate algorithms are required to integrate these two typologies of grids and, in particular, to perform efficiently dynamic energy demand and distributed generation management, while guaranteeing satisfactory thermal comfort for the occupants. This paper presents a novel control algorithm for joint energy demand and thermal comfort optimization in photovoltaic-equipped interconnected microgrids. Energy demand shaping is achieved via an intelligent control mechanism for heating, ventilating, and air conditioning units. The intelligent control mechanism takes into account the available solar energy, the building dynamics and the thermal comfort of the buildings’ occupants. The control design is accomplished in a simulation-based fashion using an energy simulation model, developed in EnergyPlus, of an interconnected microgrid. Rather than focusing only on how each building behaves individually, the optimization algorithm employs a central controller that allows interaction among the buildings of the microgrid. The control objective is to optimize the aggregate microgrid performance. Simulation results demonstrate that the optimization algorithm efficiently integrates the microgrid with the photovoltaic system that provides free electric energy: in

­­Drought, water conservation, and water demand rebound in California

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzales, P.; Ajami, N.

2017-12-01

There is growing recognition that dynamic community values, preferences, and water use behaviors are important drivers of water demand in addition to external factors such as temperature and precipitation. Water demand drivers have been extensively studied, yet they have traditionally been applied to models that assume static conditions and usually do not account for potential societal changes in response to increased scarcity awareness. For example, following a period of sustained low demand such as during a drought, communities often increase water use during a hydrologically wet period, a phenomenon known as "rebounding" water use. Yet previous experiences show the extent of this rebound is not a straightforward function of policy and efficiency improvements, but may also reflect short-term or long-lasting change in community behavior, which are not easily captured by models that assume stationarity. In this study we explore cycles of decreased water demand during drought and subsequent water use rebound observed in California in recent decades. We have developed a novel dynamic system model for water demand in three diverse but interconnected service areas in the San Francisco Bay Area, exposing local trends of changing water use behaviors and long-term impacts on water demand since 1980 to the present. In this model, we apply the concept of social memory, defined as a community's inherited knowledge about hazardous events or degraded environmental conditions from past experiences. While this concept has been applied to further conceptual understanding of socio-hydrologic systems in response to hydrological extremes, to the best of our knowledge this the first study to incorporate social memory to model the water demand rebound phenomenon and to use such a model in the examination of changing dynamics validated by historical data. In addition, we take a closer look at water demand during the recent historic drought in California from 2012-16, and relate our

Intelligent demand side management of residential building energy systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sinha, Maruti N.

Advent of modern sensing technologies, data processing capabilities and rising cost of energy are driving the implementation of intelligent systems in buildings and houses which constitute 41% of total energy consumption. The primary motivation has been to provide a framework for demand-side management and to improve overall reliability. The entire formulation is to be implemented on NILM (Non-Intrusive Load Monitoring System), a smart meter. This is going to play a vital role in the future of demand side management. Utilities have started deploying smart meters throughout the world which will essentially help to establish communication between utility and consumers. This research is focused on investigation of a suitable thermal model of residential house, building up control system and developing diagnostic and energy usage forecast tool. The present work has considered measurement based approach to pursue. Identification of building thermal parameters is the very first step towards developing performance measurement and controls. The proposed identification technique is PEM (Prediction Error Method) based, discrete state-space model. The two different models have been devised. First model is focused toward energy usage forecast and diagnostics. Here one of the novel idea has been investigated which takes integral of thermal capacity to identify thermal model of house. The purpose of second identification is to build up a model for control strategy. The controller should be able to take into account the weather forecast information, deal with the operating point constraints and at the same time minimize the energy consumption. To design an optimal controller, MPC (Model Predictive Control) scheme has been implemented instead of present thermostatic/hysteretic control. This is a receding horizon approach. Capability of the proposed schemes has also been investigated.

Household energy demand in Kenya: An application of the linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA-AIDS)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ngui, Dianah; Mutua, John; Osiolo, Hellen; Aligula, Eric

2011-01-01

This paper estimates price and fuel expenditure elasticities of demand by applying the linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand system (LA-AIDS) to 3665 households sampled across Kenya in 2009. The results indicate that motor spirit premium (MSP), automotive gas oil (AGO) and lubricants are price elastic while fuel wood, kerosene, charcoal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity are price inelastic. Kerosene is income elastic while fuel wood, charcoal, LPG, electricity, MSP and AGO are income inelastic. The results also reveal fuel stack behaviour, that is, multiple fuel use among the households. Main policy implications of the results include increasing the penetration of alternative fuels as well as provision of more fiscal incentives to increase usage of cleaner fuels. This not withstanding however, the household income should be increased beyond a certain point for the household to completely shift and use a new fuel. - Highlights: → Fuel wood, kerosene, charcoal, LPG and electricity are price inelastic. → Kerosene is income elastic. → Fuel wood, charcoal, electricity, LPG, MSP and AGO are income inelastic. → Results reveal fuel stack behaviour among the households. → Income should be increased beyond a certain point to facilitate fuel switch.

Household energy demand in Kenya: An application of the linear approximate almost ideal demand system (LA-AIDS)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ngui, Dianah, E-mail: ngui.diana@ku.ac.ke [Kenyatta University, P.O. Box 43844-00100, Nairobi (Kenya); Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, P.O. Box, 56445-00200, Nairobi (Kenya); Mutua, John [Energy Regulatory Commission, P.O. Box 42681-00100, Nairobi (Kenya); Osiolo, Hellen; Aligula, Eric [Kenya Institute for Public Policy Research and Analysis, P.O. Box, 56445-00200, Nairobi (Kenya)

2011-11-15

This paper estimates price and fuel expenditure elasticities of demand by applying the linear Approximate Almost Ideal Demand system (LA-AIDS) to 3665 households sampled across Kenya in 2009. The results indicate that motor spirit premium (MSP), automotive gas oil (AGO) and lubricants are price elastic while fuel wood, kerosene, charcoal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and electricity are price inelastic. Kerosene is income elastic while fuel wood, charcoal, LPG, electricity, MSP and AGO are income inelastic. The results also reveal fuel stack behaviour, that is, multiple fuel use among the households. Main policy implications of the results include increasing the penetration of alternative fuels as well as provision of more fiscal incentives to increase usage of cleaner fuels. This not withstanding however, the household income should be increased beyond a certain point for the household to completely shift and use a new fuel. - Highlights: > Fuel wood, kerosene, charcoal, LPG and electricity are price inelastic. > Kerosene is income elastic. > Fuel wood, charcoal, electricity, LPG, MSP and AGO are income inelastic. > Results reveal fuel stack behaviour among the households. > Income should be increased beyond a certain point to facilitate fuel switch.

A Vision for Co-optimized T&D System Interaction with Renewables and Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, Lindsay [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Zéphyr, Luckny [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Cardell, Judith B. [Smith College, Northampton, MA (United States)

2017-01-06

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, efficient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. The use of demand response to counterbalance the intermittency of renewable generation brings the consumer into the spotlight. Though individual consumers are interconnected at the low-voltage distribution system, these resources are typically modeled as variables at the transmission network level. In this paper, a vision for cooptimized interaction of distribution systems, or microgrids, with the high-voltage transmission system is described. In this framework, microgrids encompass consumers, distributed renewables and storage. The energy management system of the microgrid can also sell (buy) excess (necessary) energy from the transmission system. Preliminary work explores price mechanisms to manage the microgrid and its interactions with the transmission system. Wholesale market operations are addressed through the development of scalable stochastic optimization methods that provide the ability to co-optimize interactions between the transmission and distribution systems. Modeling challenges of the co-optimization are addressed via solution methods for large-scale stochastic optimization, including decomposition and stochastic dual dynamic programming.

A Vision for Co-optimized T&D System Interaction with Renewables and Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderson, C. Lindsay [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Zéphyr, Luckny [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Liu, Jialin [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States); Cardell, Judith B. [Smith College, Northampton MA (United States)

2017-01-07

The evolution of the power system to the reliable, effi- cient and sustainable system of the future will involve development of both demand- and supply-side technology and operations. The use of demand response to counterbalance the intermittency of re- newable generation brings the consumer into the spotlight. Though individual consumers are interconnected at the low-voltage distri- bution system, these resources are typically modeled as variables at the transmission network level. In this paper, a vision for co- optimized interaction of distribution systems, or microgrids, with the high-voltage transmission system is described. In this frame- work, microgrids encompass consumers, distributed renewables and storage. The energy management system of the microgrid can also sell (buy) excess (necessary) energy from the transmission system. Preliminary work explores price mechanisms to manage the microgrid and its interactions with the transmission system. Wholesale market operations are addressed through the devel- opment of scalable stochastic optimization methods that provide the ability to co-optimize interactions between the transmission and distribution systems. Modeling challenges of the co-optimization are addressed via solution methods for large-scale stochastic op- timization, including decomposition and stochastic dual dynamic programming.

Non-utility generation and demand management reliability of customer delivery systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamoud, G.A.; Wang, L.

1995-01-01

A probabilistic methodology for evaluating the impact of non-utility generation (NUG) and demand management programs (DMP) on supply reliability of customer delivery systems was presented. The proposed method was based on the criteria that the supply reliability to the customers on the delivery system should not be affected by the integration of either NUG or DMPs. The method considered station load profile, load forecast, and uncertainty in size and availability of the nuio. Impacts on system reliability were expressed in terms of possible delays of the in-service date for new facilities or in terms of an increase in the system load carrying capability. Examples to illustrate the proposed methodology were provided. 10 refs., 8 tabs., 2 figs

On Inventory Control For Perishable Inventory Systems Subject To Uncertainties On Customer Demands

OpenAIRE

Abbou , Rosa; Loiseau , Jean-Jacques; Khaldi , Hajer; Farraa , Berna ,

2017-01-01

International audience; This paper deals with the inventory controller design for constrained production systems subject to uncertainties on the customer demands. The case study focuses on the inventory regulation problem in production systems where contain perishable finite products. Such systems are characterized by the presence of delays due to production processes, and constraints from the instantaneous inventory level, production level and the finite capacities of stocks. To do that, we ...

Energy Supply and Demand Planning Aspects in Slovenia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomsic, M.; Urbancic, A.; Al Mansour, F.; Merse, S.

1997-01-01

Slovenia can be considered a sufficiently homogenous region, even though specific climatic conditions exist in some parts of the country. Urban regions with high energy consumptions density differ in logistic aspects and in the potential of renewable energy sources. The difference in household energy demand is not significant. The planning study is based on the ''Integrated Resource Planning'' approach. A novel energy planning tool, the MESAP-PlaNet energy system model, supplemented by auxiliary models of technology penetration, electricity demand analysis and optimal expansion planning (the WASP package) has been used. The following segments has been treated in detail: industry, households and both central and local supply systems. Three intensities of energy efficiency strategies are compared: Reference, Moderate and Intensive. The intensity of demand side management programs influence the level and dynamics of activation of conservation potentials. Energy tax is considered in the Moderate and Intensive strategies. On the supply side the issue of domestic coal use is discussed. Reduction in the use of coal is linked to energy efficiency strategies. It has been found that energy efficiency strategies consistently improve economic efficiency, security of supply and protection of health and environment. The only conflicting area is social acceptability, due to both the energy tax reform and the loss of mining jobs. (author)

Analysis of the electricity demand of Greece for optimal planning of a large-scale hybrid renewable energy system

Science.gov (United States)

Tyralis, Hristos; Karakatsanis, Georgios; Tzouka, Katerina; Mamassis, Nikos

2015-04-01

The Greek electricity system is examined for the period 2002-2014. The demand load data are analysed at various time scales (hourly, daily, seasonal and annual) and they are related to the mean daily temperature and the gross domestic product (GDP) of Greece for the same time period. The prediction of energy demand, a product of the Greek Independent Power Transmission Operator, is also compared with the demand load. Interesting results about the change of the electricity demand scheme after the year 2010 are derived. This change is related to the decrease of the GDP, during the period 2010-2014. The results of the analysis will be used in the development of an energy forecasting system which will be a part of a framework for optimal planning of a large-scale hybrid renewable energy system in which hydropower plays the dominant role. Acknowledgement: This research was funded by the Greek General Secretariat for Research and Technology through the research project Combined REnewable Systems for Sustainable ENergy DevelOpment (CRESSENDO; grant number 5145)

Optimum community energy storage system for demand load shifting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parra, David; Norman, Stuart A.; Walker, Gavin S.; Gillott, Mark

2016-01-01

Highlights: • PbA-acid and lithium-ion batteries are optimised up to a 100-home community. • A 4-period real-time pricing and Economy 7 (2-period time-of-use) are compared. • Li-ion batteries perform worse with Economy 7 for small communities and vice versa. • The community approach reduced the levelised cost by 56% compared to a single home. • Heat pumps reduced the levelised cost and increased the profitability of batteries. - Abstract: Community energy storage (CES) is becoming an attractive technological option to facilitate the use of distributed renewable energy generation, manage demand loads and decarbonise the residential sector. There is strong interest in understanding the techno-economic benefits of using CES systems, which energy storage technology is more suitable and the optimum CES size. In this study, the performance including equivalent full cycles and round trip efficiency of lead-acid (PbA) and lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries performing demand load shifting are quantified as a function of the size of the community using simulation-based optimisation. Two different retail tariffs are compared: a time-of-use tariff (Economy 7) and a real-time-pricing tariff including four periods based on the electricity prices on the wholesale market. Additionally, the economic benefits are quantified when projected to two different years: 2020 and a hypothetical zero carbon year. The findings indicate that the optimum PbA capacity was approximately twice the optimum Li-ion capacity in the case of the real-time-pricing tariff and around 1.6 times for Economy 7 for any community size except a single home. The levelised cost followed a negative logarithmic trend while the internal rate of return followed a positive logarithmic trend as a function of the size of the community. PbA technology reduced the levelised cost down to 0.14 £/kW h when projected to the year 2020 for the retail tariff Economy 7. CES systems were sized according to the demand load and

Pigeons' demand and preference for specific and generalized conditioned reinforcers in a token economy.

Science.gov (United States)

Tan, Lavinia; Hackenberg, Timothy D

2015-11-01

Pigeons' demand and preference for specific and generalized tokens was examined in a token economy. Pigeons could produce and exchange different colored tokens for food, for water, or for food or water. Token production was measured across three phases, which examined: (1) across-session price increases (typical demand curve method); (2) within-session price increases (progressive-ratio, PR, schedule); and (3) concurrent pairwise choices between the token types. Exponential demand curves were fitted to the response data and accounted for over 90% total variance. Demand curve parameter values, Pmax , Omax and α showed that demand was ordered in the following way: food tokens, generalized tokens, water tokens, both in Phase 1 and in Phase 3. This suggests that the preferences were predictable on the basis of elasticity and response output from the demand analysis. Pmax and Omax values failed to consistently predict breakpoints and peak response rates in the PR schedules in Phase 2, however, suggesting limits on a unitary conception of reinforcer efficacy. The patterns of generalized token production and exchange in Phase 3 suggest that the generalized tokens served as substitutes for the specific food and water tokens. Taken together, the present findings demonstrate the utility of behavioral economic concepts in the analysis of generalized reinforcement. © Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Field Testing and Modeling of Supermarket Refrigeration Systems as a Demand Response Resource

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Deru, Michael; Hirsch, Adam; Clark, Jordan; Anthony, Jamie

2016-08-26

Supermarkets offer a substantial demand response (DR) resource because of their high energy intensity and use patterns; however, refrigeration as the largest load has been challenging to access. Previous work has analyzed supermarket DR using heating, ventilating, and air conditioning; lighting; and anti-sweat heaters. This project evaluated and quantified the DR potential inherent in supermarket refrigeration systems in the Bonneville Power Administration service territory. DR events were carried out and results measured in an operational 45,590-ft2 supermarket located in Hillsboro, Oregon. Key results from the project include the rate of temperature increase in freezer reach-in cases and walk-ins when refrigeration is suspended, the load shed amount for DR tests, and the development of calibrated models to quantify available DR resources. Simulations showed that demand savings of 15 to 20 kilowatts (kW) are available for 1.5 hours for a typical store without precooling and for about 2.5 hours with precooling using only the low-temperature, non-ice cream cases. This represents an aggregated potential of 20 megawatts within BPA's service territory. Inability to shed loads for medium-temperature (MT) products because of the tighter temperature requirements is a significant barrier to realizing larger DR for supermarkets. Store owners are reluctant to allow MT case set point changes, and laboratory tests of MT case DR strategies are needed so that owners become comfortable testing, and implementing, MT case DR. The next-largest barrier is the lack of proper controls in most supermarket displays over ancillary equipment, such as anti-sweat heaters, lights, and fans.

Match-play demands of elite youth Gaelic football using global positioning system tracking.

Science.gov (United States)

Reilly, Brian; Akubat, Ibrahim; Lyons, Mark; Collins, D Kieran

2015-04-01

Global positioning systems (GPS) technology has made athlete-tracking a convenient and accepted technique to specify movement patterns and physical demands in sport. The purpose of this study was to examine positional demands of elite youth Gaelic football match-play using portable GPS technology to examine movement patterns and heart rates across match periods. Fifty-six elite youth male Gaelic footballers (age, 15 ± 0.66 years) fitted with portable 4-Hz GPS units were observed during 6 competitive matches (60 minutes). Data provided from the GPS unit included total distance, high-intensity (≥17·km·h(-1)) distance, sprint (≥22 km·h(-1)) distance, and total number of sprints. Heart rate was monitored continuously throughout the games. Players covered a mean distance of 5732 ± 1047 m, and the mean intensity of match-play was 85% of the peak heart rate. There was a significant (p = 0.028) drop in the total distance covered in the second half (2783 ± 599 m) compared with the first half (2948 ± 580 m). In particular, there is a noticeable drop in the distance covered in the third quarter of the game (after half-time), which has implications for re-warming up at the end of the half-time interval. There was a highly significant (p < .001) difference in the distance traveled across the 5 positional groups with midfielders covering the greatest total distance (6740 ± 384 m). The significant differences found with respect to positional groups support the implementation of individual, position-specific strength and conditioning programs.

The Multiple-Demand System in the Novelty of Musical Improvisation: Evidence from an MRI Study on Composers.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Jing; Yang, Hua; He, Hui; Jeon, Seun; Hou, Changyue; Evans, Alan C; Yao, Dezhong

2017-01-01

The multiple-demand (MD) system has proven to be associated with creating structured mental programs in comprehensive behaviors, but the functional mechanisms of this system have not been clarified in the musical domain. In this study, we explored the hypothesis that the MD system is involved in a comprehensive music-related behavior known as musical improvisation. Under a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) paradigm, 29 composers were recruited to improvise melodies through visual imagery tasks according to familiar and unfamiliar cues. We found that the main regions of the MD system were significantly activated during both musical improvisation conditions. However, only a greater involvement of the intraparietal sulcus (IPS) within the MD system was shown when improvising with unfamiliar cues. Our results revealed that the MD system strongly participated in musical improvisation through processing the novelty of melodies, working memory, and attention. In particular, improvising with unfamiliar cues required more musical transposition manipulations. Moreover, both functional and structural analyses indicated evidence of neuroplasticity in MD regions that could be associated with musical improvisation training. These findings can help unveil the functional mechanisms of the MD system in musical cognition, as well as improve our understanding of musical improvisation.

Knowledge acquisition and interface design for learning on demand systems

Science.gov (United States)

Nelson, Wayne A.

1993-01-01

The rapid changes in our world precipitated by technology have created new problems and new challenges for education and training. A knowledge 'explosion' is occurring as our society moves toward a service oriented economy that relies on information as the major resource. Complex computer systems are beginning to dominate the workplace, causing alarming growth and change in many fields. The rapidly changing nature of the workplace, especially in fields related to information technology, requires that our knowledge be updated constantly. This characteristic of modern society poses seemingly unsolvable instructional problems involving coverage and obsolescence. The sheer amount of information to be learned is rapidly increasing, while at the same time some information becomes obsolete in light of new information. Education, therefore, must become a lifelong process that features learning of new material and skills as needed in relation to the job to be done. Because of the problems cited above, the current model of learning in advance may no longer be feasible in our high-technology world. In many cases, learning in advance is impossible because there are simply too many things to learn. In addition, learning in advance can be time consuming, and often results in decontextualized knowledge that does not readily transfer to the work environment. The large and growing discrepancy between the amount of potentially relevant knowledge available and the amount a person can know and remember makes learning on demand an important alternative to current instructional practices. Learning on demand takes place whenever an individual must learn something new in order to perform a task or make a decision. Learning on demand is a promising approach for addressing the problems of coverage and obsolescence because learning is contextualized and integrated into the task environment rather than being relegated to a separate phase that precedes work. Learning on demand allows learners

Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.

Performance Analysis of Production Systems with Correlated Demand via Diffusion Approximations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingdong Lu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We investigate the performance of a production system with correlated demand through diffusion approximation. The key performance metric under consideration is the extreme points that this system can reach. This problem is mapped to a problem of characterizing the joint probability density of a two-dimensional Brownian motion and its coordinate running maximum. To achieve this goal, we obtain the stationary distribution of a reflected Brownian motion within the positive quarter-plane, which is of independent interest, through investigating a solution of an extended Helmhotz equation.

Integrated design and evaluation of biomass energy system taking into consideration demand side characteristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ren, Hongbo; Zhou, Weisheng; Nakagami, Ken'ichi; Gao, Weijun

2010-01-01

In this paper, a linear programming model has been developed for the design and evaluation of biomass energy system, while taking into consideration demand side characteristics. The objective function to be minimized is the total annual cost of the energy system for a given customer equipped with a biomass combined cooling, heating and power (CCHP) plant, as well as a backup boiler fueled by city gas. The results obtained from the implementation of the model demonstrate the optimal system capacities that customers could employ given their electrical and thermal demands. As an illustrative example, an investigation addresses the optimal biomass CCHP system for a residential area located in Kitakyushu Science and Research Park, Japan. In addition, sensitivity analyses have been elaborated in order to show how the optimal solutions would vary due to changes of some key parameters including electricity and city gas tariffs, biogas price, electricity buy-back price, as well as carbon tax rate. (author)

Voltage Controlled Dynamic Demand Response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bhattarai, Bishnu Prasad; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Mahat, Pukar

2013-01-01

Future power system is expected to be characterized by increased penetration of intermittent sources. Random and rapid fluctuations in demands together with intermittency in generation impose new challenges for power balancing in the existing system. Conventional techniques of balancing by large...... central or dispersed generations might not be sufficient for future scenario. One of the effective methods to cope with this scenario is to enable demand response. This paper proposes a dynamic voltage regulation based demand response technique to be applied in low voltage (LV) distribution feeders....... An adaptive dynamic model has been developed to determine composite voltage dependency of an aggregated load on feeder level. Following the demand dispatch or control signal, optimum voltage setting at the LV substation is determined based on the voltage dependency of the load. Furthermore, a new technique...

Energy performance and optimal control of air-conditioned buildings with envelopes enhanced by phase change materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu Na; Wang Shengwei; Ma Zhenjun; Sun Yongjun

2011-01-01

Highlights: → Impact of PCM on the energy consumption and peak load demand as well as electricity cost of air-conditioned buildings. → Impact of load shifting control on energy consumption, peak load and electricity cost of air-conditioned PCM buildings. → Impact of demand limiting control on energy consumption, peak load and electricity cost of air-conditioned PCM buildings. → Energy/cost effects of different control strategies and use of PCM in energy-plus-demand-based pricing policy. → Energy/cost effects of different control strategies and use of PCM in time-based pricing policy. - Abstract: Studies are conducted to investigate the impacts of shape-stabilized phase change material (SSPCM) and different control strategies on the energy consumption and peak load demand as well as electricity cost of building air-conditioning systems at typical summer conditions in two climates (subtropical and dry continental climates). An office building using a typical variable air volume (VAV) air-conditioning system was selected and simulated as the reference building in this study. Its envelopes were enhanced by integrating the SSPCM layers into its walls while the air-conditioning system and other configurations of the building remained unchanged. The building system was tested under two typical weather conditions and two typical electricity pricing policies (i.e. time-based pricing and energy-plus-demand-based pricing). Test results show that the use of SSPCM in the building could reduce the building electricity cost significantly (over 11% in electricity cost reduction and over 20% in peak load reduction), under two pricing policies by using load shifting control and demand limiting control respectively. This paper presents the test results and the evaluation on the energy performance and the optimal control strategies of air-conditioned commercial buildings with envelopes enhanced by SSPCM.

Aggregate modeling of fast-acting demand response and control under real-time pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chassin, David P.; Rondeau, Daniel

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Demand elasticity for fast-acting demand response load under real-time pricing. • Validated first-principles logistic demand curve matches random utility model. • Logistic demand curve suitable for diversified aggregate loads market-based transactive control systems. - Abstract: This paper develops and assesses the performance of a short-term demand response (DR) model for utility load control with applications to resource planning and control design. Long term response models tend to underestimate short-term demand response when induced by prices. This has two important consequences. First, planning studies tend to undervalue DR and often overlook its benefits in utility demand management program development. Second, when DR is not overlooked, the open-loop DR control gain estimate may be too low. This can result in overuse of load resources, control instability and excessive price volatility. Our objective is therefore to develop a more accurate and better performing short-term demand response model. We construct the model from first principles about the nature of thermostatic load control and show that the resulting formulation corresponds exactly to the Random Utility Model employed in economics to study consumer choice. The model is tested against empirical data collected from field demonstration projects and is shown to perform better than alternative models commonly used to forecast demand in normal operating conditions. The results suggest that (1) existing utility tariffs appear to be inadequate to incentivize demand response, particularly in the presence of high renewables, and (2) existing load control systems run the risk of becoming unstable if utilities close the loop on real-time prices.

Sensitivity of district heating system operation to heat demand reductions and electricity price variations: A Swedish example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Åberg, M.; Widén, J.; Henning, D.

2012-01-01

In the future, district heating companies in Sweden must adapt to energy efficiency measures in buildings and variable fuel and electricity prices. Swedish district heating demands are expected to decrease by 1–2% per year and electricity price variations seem to be more unpredictable in the future. A cost-optimisation model of a Swedish local district heating system is constructed using the optimisation modelling tool MODEST. A scenario for heat demand changes due to increased energy efficiency in buildings, combined with the addition of new buildings, is studied along with a sensitivity analysis for electricity price variations. Despite fears that heat demand reductions will decrease co-generation of clean electricity and cause increased global emissions, the results show that anticipated heat demand changes do not increase the studied system's primary energy use or global CO 2 emissions. The results further indicate that the heat production plants and the fuels used within the system have crucial importance for the environmental impact of district heat use. Results also show that low seasonal variations in electricity price levels with relatively low winter prices promote the use of electric heat pumps. High winter prices on the other hand promote co-generation of heat and electricity in CHP plants. -- Highlights: ► A MODEST optimisation model of the Uppsala district heating system is built. ► The impact of heat demand change on heat and electricity production is examined. ► An electricity price level sensitivity analysis for district heating is performed. ► Heat demand changes do not increase the primary energy use or global CO 2 emissions. ► Low winter prices promote use of electric heat pumps for district heating production.

The job demands-resources model of burnout

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Demerouti, E.; Nachreiner, F.; Bakker, A.B.; Schaufeli, W.B.

2001-01-01

The job demands - resources (JD-R) model proposes that working conditions can be categorized into 2 broad categories, job demands and job resources, that are differentially related to specific outcomes. A series of LISREL analyses using self-reports as well as observer ratings of the working

The job demands-resources model of burnout.

Science.gov (United States)

Demerouti, E; Bakker, A B; Nachreiner, F; Schaufeli, W B

2001-06-01

The job demands-resources (JD-R) model proposes that working conditions can be categorized into 2 broad categories, job demands and job resources. that are differentially related to specific outcomes. A series of LISREL analyses using self-reports as well as observer ratings of the working conditions provided strong evidence for the JD-R model: Job demands are primarily related to the exhaustion component of burnout, whereas (lack of) job resources are primarily related to disengagement. Highly similar patterns were observed in each of 3 occupational groups: human services, industry, and transport (total N = 374). In addition, results confirmed the 2-factor structure (exhaustion and disengagement) of a new burnout instrument--the Oldenburg Burnout Inventory--and suggested that this structure is essentially invariant across occupational groups.

Evaluation of automated residential demand response with flat and dynamic pricing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swisher, Joel; Wang, Kitty; Stewart, Stewart

2005-01-01

This paper reviews the performance of two recent automated load management programs for residential customers of electric utilities in two American states. Both pilot programs have been run with about 200 participant houses each, and both programs have control populations of similar customers without the technology or program treatment. In both cases, the technology used in the pilot is GoodWatts, an advanced, two-way, real-time, comprehensive home energy management system. The purpose of each pilot is to determine the household kW reduction in coincident peak electric load from the energy management technology. Nevada Power has conducted a pilot program for Air-Conditioning Load Management (ACLM), in which customers are sent an electronic curtailment signal for three-hour intervals during times of maximum peak demand. The participating customers receive an annual incentive payment, but otherwise they are on a conventional utility tariff. In California, three major utilities are jointly conducting a pilot demonstration of an Automated Demand Response System (ADRS). Customers are on a time-of-use (ToU) tariff, which includes a critical peak pricing (CPP) element. During times of maximum peak demand, customers are sent an electronic price signal that is three times higher than the normal on-peak price. Houses with the automated GoodWatts technology reduced their demand in both the ACLM and the ADRS programs by about 50% consistently across the summer curtailment or super peak events, relative to homes without the technology or any load management program or tariff in place. The absolute savings were greater in the ACLM program, due to the higher baseline air conditioning loads in the hotter Las Vegas climate. The results suggest that either automated technology or dynamic pricing can deliver significant demand response in low-consumption houses. However, for high-consumption houses, automated technology can reduce load by a greater absolute kWh difference. Targeting

Electricity demand in Kazakhstan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atakhanova, Zauresh; Howie, Peter

2007-01-01

Properties of electricity demand in transition economies have not been sufficiently well researched mostly due to data limitations. However, information on the properties of electricity demand is necessary for policy makers to evaluate effects of price changes on different consumers and obtain demand forecasts for capacity planning. This study estimates Kazakhstan's aggregate demand for electricity as well as electricity demand in the industrial, service, and residential sectors using regional data. Firstly, our results show that price elasticity of demand in all sectors is low. This fact suggests that there is considerable room for price increases necessary to finance generation and distribution system upgrading. Secondly, we find that income elasticity of demand in the aggregate and all sectoral models is less than unity. Of the three sectors, electricity demand in the residential sector has the lowest income elasticity. This result indicates that policy initiatives to secure affordability of electricity consumption to lower income residential consumers may be required. Finally, our forecast shows that electricity demand may grow at either 3% or 5% per year depending on rates of economic growth and government policy regarding price increases and promotion of efficiency. We find that planned supply increases would be sufficient to cover growing demand only if real electricity prices start to increase toward long-run cost-recovery levels and policy measures are implemented to maintain the current high growth of electricity efficiency

Demand Response in U.S. Electricity Markets: Empirical Evidence

OpenAIRE

Cappers, Peter

2009-01-01

Empirical evidence concerning demand response (DR) resources is needed in order to establish baseline conditions, develop standardized methods to assess DR availability and performance, and to build confidence among policymakers, utilities, system operators, and stakeholders that DR resources do offer a viable, cost-effective alternative to supply-side investments. This paper summarizes the existing contribution of DR resources in U.S. electric power markets. In 2008, customers enrolled in ...

Renewable generation and demand response integration in micro-grids. Development of a new energy management and control system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alvarez-Bel, C.; Escriva-Escriva, G.; Alcazar-Ortega, M. [Institute for Energy Engineering, Universitat Politecnica de Valencia, Valencia (Spain)

2013-11-15

The aim of this research resides in the development of an energy management and control system to control a micro-grid based on the use of renewable generation and demand resources to introduce the application of demand response concepts to the management of micro-grids in order to effectively integrate the demand side as an operation resource for the grid and improve energy efficiency of the elements. As an additional result, the evaluation of reductions in the total amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere due to the improvement of the energy efficiency of the system is assessed.

Sizing Hydrogen Energy Storage in Consideration of Demand Response in Highly Renewable Generation Power Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mubbashir Ali

2018-05-01

Full Text Available From an environment perspective, the increased penetration of wind and solar generation in power systems is remarkable. However, as the intermittent renewable generation briskly grows, electrical grids are experiencing significant discrepancies between supply and demand as a result of limited system flexibility. This paper investigates the optimal sizing and control of the hydrogen energy storage system for increased utilization of renewable generation. Using a Finnish case study, a mathematical model is presented to investigate the optimal storage capacity in a renewable power system. In addition, the impact of demand response for domestic storage space heating in terms of the optimal sizing of energy storage is discussed. Finally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to observe the impact of a small share of controllable baseload production as well as the oversizing of renewable generation in terms of required hydrogen storage size.

Economic information from Smart Meter: Nexus Between Demand Profile and Electricity Retail Price Between Demand Profile and Electricity Retail Price

OpenAIRE

Yu, Yang; Liu, Guangyi; Zhu, Wendong; Wang, Fei; Shu, Bin; Zhang, Kai; Rajagopal, Ram; Astier, Nicolas

2016-01-01

In this paper, we demonstrate that a consumer's marginal system impact is only determined by their demand profile rather than their demand level. Demand profile clustering is identical to cluster consumers according to their marginal impacts on system costs. A profile-based uniform-rate price is economically efficient as real-time pricing. We develop a criteria system to evaluate the economic efficiency of an implemented retail price scheme in a distribution system by comparing profile cluste...

Competition with supply and demand functions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bolle, F.

2001-01-01

If economic agents have to determine in advance their supply or demand in reaction to different market prices we may assume that their strategic instruments are supply or demand functions. The best examples for such markets are the spot markets for electricity in England and Wales, in Chile, in New Zealand, in Scandinavia and perhaps elsewhere. A further example is computerized trading in stock markets, financial markets, or commodity exchanges. The functional form of equilibria is explicitly determined in this paper. Under a certain condition, equilibria exist for every finite spread of (stochastic) autonomous demand, i.e. demand from small, non-strategically acting consumers. Contrary to competition with supply functions alone, however, there is no tendency for market prices to converge to 0 if the spread of autonomous demand increases infinitely. Lower bounds of market prices can be computed instead

Smart Buildings and Demand Response

Science.gov (United States)

Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Ghatikar, Girish

2011-11-01

Advances in communications and control technology, the strengthening of the Internet, and the growing appreciation of the urgency to reduce demand side energy use are motivating the development of improvements in both energy efficiency and demand response (DR) systems in buildings. This paper provides a framework linking continuous energy management and continuous communications for automated demand response (Auto-DR) in various times scales. We provide a set of concepts for monitoring and controls linked to standards and procedures such as Open Automation Demand Response Communication Standards (OpenADR). Basic building energy science and control issues in this approach begin with key building components, systems, end-uses and whole building energy performance metrics. The paper presents a framework about when energy is used, levels of services by energy using systems, granularity of control, and speed of telemetry. DR, when defined as a discrete event, requires a different set of building service levels than daily operations. We provide examples of lessons from DR case studies and links to energy efficiency.

Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

OpenAIRE

Ivan S. Milojević; Rade V. Guberinić

2012-01-01

If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information), then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicte...

Opportunistic Wireless Charging System Design for an On-Demand Shuttle Service

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Meintz, Andrew; Doubleday, Kate; Markel, Tony

2016-06-29

System right-sizing is critical to the implementation of in-motion wireless power transfer (WPT) for electric vehicles. This study evaluates potential system designs for an on-demand employee shuttle by determining the required battery size based on the rated power at a variable number of charging locations. Vehicle power and state of charge are simulated over the drive cycle, based on position and velocity data at every second from the existing shuttle. Adding just one WPT location can halve the battery size. Many configurations are capable of self-sustaining with WPT, while others benefit from supplemental stationary charging.

Demand Controlled Ventilation in a Combined Ventilation and Radiator System

OpenAIRE

Hesaraki, Arefeh; Holmberg, Sture

2013-01-01

With growing concerns for efficient and sustainable energy treatment in buildings there is a need for balanced and intelligent ventilation solutions. This paper presents a strategy for demand controlled ventilation with ventilation radiators, a combined heating and ventilation system. The ventilation rate was decreased from normal requirements (per floor area) of 0.375 l·s-1·m-2 to 0.100 l·s-1·m-2 when the residence building was un-occupied. The energy saving potential due to decreased ventil...

A comparison of economic demand and conditioned-cued reinstatement of methamphetamine-seeking or food-seeking in rats.

Science.gov (United States)

Galuska, Chad M; Banna, Kelly M; Willse, Lena Vaughn; Yahyavi-Firouz-Abadi, Noushin; See, Ronald E

2011-08-01

This study examined whether continued access to methamphetamine or food reinforcement changed economic demand for both. The relationship between demand elasticity and cue-induced reinstatement was also determined. Male Long-Evans rats were lever pressed under increasing fixed-ratio requirements for either food pellets or methamphetamine (20 μg/50 μl infusion). For two groups, demand curves were obtained before and after continued access (12 days, 2-h sessions) to the reinforcer under a fixed-ratio 3 schedule. A third group was given continued access to methamphetamine between determinations of food demand and a fourth group abstained from methamphetamine between determinations. All groups underwent extinction sessions, followed by a cue-induced reinstatement test. Although food demand was less elastic than methamphetamine demand, continued access to methamphetamine shifted the methamphetamine demand curve upward and the food demand curve downward. In some rats, methamphetamine demand also became less elastic. Continued access to food had no effect on food demand. Reinstatement was higher after continued access to methamphetamine relative to food. For methamphetamine, elasticity and reinstatement measures were correlated. Continued access to methamphetamine, but not food, alters demand in ways suggestive of methamphetamine accruing reinforcing strength. Demand elasticity thus provides a useful measure of abuse liability that may predict future relapse to renewed drug-seeking and drug use.

Exact Fill Rates for (R, s, S) Inventory Control With Gamma Distributed Demand

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Moors, J.J.A.; Strijbosch, L.W.G.

2001-01-01

For the familiar (R; s; S) inventory control system only approximate expressions exist for the fill rate, i.e. the fraction of demand that can be satisfied from stock.Best-known are the approximations derived from renewal theory by Tijms & Groenevelt (1984), holding under specific conditions; in

The CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand

OpenAIRE

Gotts, Nicholas Mark

2014-01-01

This paper describes the design, implementation and testing of the CEDSS model of direct domestic energy demand, and the first results of its use to produce estimates of future demand under a range of scenarios. CEDSS simulates direct domestic energy demand at within communities of approximately 200 households. The scenarios explored differ in the economic conditions assumed, and policy measures adopted at national level.

Evaluating price-based demand response in practice – with application to the EcoGrid EU Experiment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Le Ray, Guillaume; Larsen, Emil Mahler; Pinson, Pierre

2016-01-01

users is exploited in the power system, e.g. for system balancing. However, very few real-world experiments have been carried out and price-based demand response has consistently been found difficult to assess and quantify. It is our aim here to describe an approach to do so, as motivated by the large......Increased emphasis is placed today on various types of demand response, motivated by the integration of renewable energy generation and efficiency improvements in electricity markets. Some advocated for the development of price-based approaches, where the conditional dynamic elasticity of final...

Geographical National Condition and Complex System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

WANG Jiayao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The significance of studying the complex system of geographical national conditions lies in rationally expressing the complex relationships of the “resources-environment-ecology-economy-society” system. Aiming to the problems faced by the statistical analysis of geographical national conditions, including the disunity of research contents, the inconsistency of range, the uncertainty of goals, etc.the present paper conducted a range of discussions from the perspectives of concept, theory and method, and designed some solutions based on the complex system theory and coordination degree analysis methods.By analyzing the concepts of geographical national conditions, geographical national conditions survey and geographical national conditions statistical analysis, as well as investigating the relationships between theirs, the statistical contents and the analytical range of geographical national conditions are clarified and defined. This investigation also clarifies the goals of the statistical analysis by analyzing the basic characteristics of the geographical national conditions and the complex system, and the consistency between the analysis of the degree of coordination and statistical analyses. It outlines their goals, proposes a concept for the complex system of geographical national conditions, and it describes the concept. The complex system theory provides new theoretical guidance for the statistical analysis of geographical national conditions. The degree of coordination offers new approaches on how to undertake the analysis based on the measurement method and decision-making analysis scheme upon which the complex system of geographical national conditions is based. It analyzes the overall trend via the degree of coordination of the complex system on a macro level, and it determines the direction of remediation on a micro level based on the degree of coordination among various subsystems and of single systems. These results establish

Influence of Shading on Cooling Energy Demand

Science.gov (United States)

Rabczak, Sławomir; Bukowska, Maria; Proszak-Miąsik, Danuta; Nowak, Krzysztof

2017-10-01

The article presents an analysis of the building cooling load taking into account the variability of the factors affecting the size of the heat gains. In order to minimize the demand for cooling, the effect of shading elements installed on the outside on the windows and its effect on size of the cooling capacity of air conditioning system for the building has been estimated. Multivariate building cooling load calculations to determine the size of the reduction in cooling demand has derived. Determination of heat gain from the sun is laborious, but gives a result which reflects the influence of the surface transparent partitions, devices used as sunscreen and its location on the building envelope in relation to the world, as well as to the internal heat gains has great attention in obtained calculation. In this study, included in the balance sheet of solar heat gains are defined in three different shading of windows. Calculating the total demand cooling is made for variants assuming 0% shading baffles transparent, 50% shading baffles transparent external shutters at an angle of 45 °, 100% shading baffles transparent hours 12 from the N and E and from 12 from the S and W of the outer slat blinds. The calculation of the average hourly cooling load was taken into account the option assuming the hypothetical possibility of default by up to 10% of the time assumed the cooling season temperatures in the rooms. To reduce the consumption of electricity energy in the cooling system of the smallest variant identified the need for the power supply for the operation of the cooling system. Also assessed the financial benefits of the temporary default of comfort.

Demand driven decision support for efficient water resources allocation in irrigated agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Schuetze, Niels; Grießbach, Ulrike Ulrike; Röhm, Patric; Stange, Peter; Wagner, Michael; Seidel, Sabine; Werisch, Stefan; Barfus, Klemens

2014-05-01

Due to climate change, extreme weather conditions, such as longer dry spells in the summer months, may have an increasing impact on the agriculture in Saxony (Eastern Germany). For this reason, and, additionally, declining amounts of rainfall during the growing season the use of irrigation will be more important in future in Eastern Germany. To cope with this higher demand of water, a new decision support framework is developed which focuses on an integrated management of both irrigation water supply and demand. For modeling the regional water demand, local (and site-specific) water demand functions are used which are derived from the optimized agronomic response at farms scale. To account for climate variability the agronomic response is represented by stochastic crop water production functions (SCWPF) which provide the estimated yield subject to the minimum amount of irrigation water. These functions take into account the different soil types, crops and stochastically generated climate scenarios. By applying mathematical interpolation and optimization techniques, the SCWPF's are used to compute the water demand considering different constraints, for instance variable and fix costs or the producer price. This generic approach enables the computation for both multiple crops at farm scale as well as of the aggregated response to water pricing at a regional scale for full and deficit irrigation systems. Within the SAPHIR (SAxonian Platform for High Performance Irrigation) project a prototype of a decision support system is developed which helps to evaluate combined water supply and demand management policies for an effective and efficient utilization of water in order to meet future demands. The prototype is implemented as a web-based decision support system and it is based on a service-oriented geo-database architecture.

Exact Fill Rates for the (R, S Inventory Control with Discrete Distributed Demands for the Backordering Case

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eugenia BABILONI

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The fill rate is usually computed by using the traditional approach, which calculates it as the complement of the quotient between the expected unfulfilled demand and the expected demand per replenishment cycle, instead of directly the expected fraction of fulfilled demand. Furthermore the available methods to estimate the fill rate apply only under specific demand conditions. This paper shows the research gap regarding the estimation procedures to compute the fill rate and suggests: (i a new exact procedure to compute the traditional approximation for any discrete demand distribution; and (ii a new method to compute the fill rate directly as the fraction of fulfilled demand for any discrete demand distribution. Simulation results show that the latter methods outperform the traditional approach, which underestimates the simulated fill rate, over different demand patterns. This paper focuses on the traditional periodic review, base stock system when backlogged demands are allowed.

Managing travel demand: Location recommendation for system efficiency based on mobile phone data

OpenAIRE

Leng, Yan; Rudolph, Larry; Pentland, Alex 'Sandy'; Zhao, Jinhua; Koutsopolous, Haris N.

2016-01-01

Growth in leisure travel has become increasingly significant economically, socially, and environmentally. However, flexible but uncoordinated travel behaviors exacerbate traffic congestion. Mobile phone records not only reveal human mobility patterns, but also enable us to manage travel demand for system efficiency. In this paper, we propose a location recommendation system that infers personal preferences while accounting for constraints imposed by road capacity in order to manage travel dem...

Economic potential of demand response at household level—Are Central-European market conditions sufficient?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prüggler, Natalie

2013-01-01

The aim of this paper is to show the economic potential of demand response (DR) on household level at Central European market conditions. Thereby, required economic benefits for consumers' participation, the realistic load shifting potential at household level and the estimation of essential intelligent infrastructure costs are discussed. The core of this paper builds a case-study applying spot market-oriented load shifting from the supplier's point of view by using Austrian electricity market data, household load profiles as well as a heat pump and e-car charging load profile. It is demonstrated which cost savings for suppliers can be derived from such load shifting procedure at household level. Furthermore, upper cost limits for intelligent infrastructure in order to break-even are derived. Results suggest to take a critical look at European discussions on DR implementation on household level, showing that at Central European market conditions the potential for DR at household level is restricted to significant loads and hence, the applied load shifting strategy is only beneficial with application to heat pumps. In contrast, the frequently discussed shifting of conventional household devices' loads (such as washing machines) economically does not add up. - Highlights: • Calculation of economic potential of domestic DR at Central European market conditions. • Model and case-study of spot market-oriented load shifting from supplier's perspective. • Derivation of supplier's cost savings and upper cost limits for ICT infrastructure. • Results show economic potential of domestic DR to be restricted to significant loads. • Shifting of washing machines economically does not pay off in contrast to heat pumps

Demand as Frequency Controlled Reserve

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Xu, Zhao; Østergaard, Jacob; Togeby, Mikael

2011-01-01

Relying on generation side alone is deemed insufficient to fulfill the system balancing needs for future Danish power system, where a 50% wind penetration is outlined by the government for year 2025. This paper investigates using the electricity demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) as a new...... balancing measure, which has a high potential and can provide many advantages. Firstly, the background of the research is reviewed, including conventional power system reserves and the electricity demand side potentials. Subsequently, the control logics and corresponding design considerations for the DFR...

Geospatial Analysis of the Building Heat Demand and Distribution Losses in a District Heating Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tobias Törnros

2016-11-01

Full Text Available The district heating (DH demand of various systems has been simulated in several studies. Most studies focus on the temporal aspects rather than the spatial component. In this study, the DH demand for a medium-sized DH network in a city in southern Germany is simulated and analyzed in a spatially explicit approach. Initially, buildings are geo-located and attributes obtained from various sources including building type, ground area, and number of stories are merged. Thereafter, the annual primary energy demand for heating and domestic hot water is calculated for individual buildings. Subsequently, the energy demand is aggregated on the segment level of an existing DH network and the water flow is routed through the system. The simulation results show that the distribution losses are overall the highest at the end segments (given in percentage terms. However, centrally located pipes with a low throughflow are also simulated to have high losses. The spatial analyses are not only useful when addressing the current demand. Based on a scenario taking into account the refurbishment of buildings and a decentralization of energy production, the future demand was also addressed. Due to lower demand, the distribution losses given in percentage increase under such conditions.

Data model for Demand Side Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simona-Vasilica OPREA

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Demand Side Management (DSM is a portfolio of measures to improve the energy system mainly at the consumption level. In this paper we propose a data model for DSM stating from the optimization methods approach in SMARTRADE project from different perspectives of several entities that include: Transmission System Operator (TSO/Distribution System Operators (DSOs perspectives in case of security/reliability concerns: minimum amount of load (or generation shedding; aggregators perspective in case of demand or generation shedding request: Which demand (or generators should be shed?; consumers perspective: load shifting (time-of-use (ToU tariffs and optimum contract strategies with the aggregators (also known as balancing responsible parties- BRP for load shedding.

Effect of demand management on regulated and deregulated electricity sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fahrioglu, Murat

2016-01-01

Our society derives a quantifiable benefit from electric power. In particular, forced outages or blackouts have enormous consequences on society, one of which is loss of economic surplus. The society relies on having a continuous supply of electrical energy. Some customers may willingly risk this continuous supply and participate in demand management programs for electrical power. If the power system grid is in trouble, electric utilities need to have demand relief. Customers willing to reduce their demand to help the system can receive an incentive fee for helping the utilities. Demand relief can be system wide or location specific. Sometimes it can be more effective to fix the electrical demand vs. supply imbalance from the demand side. The value of demand management contracts is greatly affected by customer location. Inclusion of locational attributes into the contract design procedure increases the effectiveness of the contracts by helping a utility get more value from its demand management programs. Independent System Operators and regulators, among others, can also benefit from effective demand management. This paper will investigate how this type of demand management contracts can help the electricity sector both in regulated and deregulated environments. - Highlights: • Demand management can help prevent forced electricity outages. • Both electric utilities and ISOs can use demand management. • Regulated and deregulated electricity sectors can benefit from demand management. • Demand management contracts can be effectively used in power system grids.

Do job demands and job control affect problem-solving?

Science.gov (United States)

Bergman, Peter N; Ahlberg, Gunnel; Johansson, Gun; Stoetzer, Ulrich; Aborg, Carl; Hallsten, Lennart; Lundberg, Ingvar

2012-01-01

The Job Demand Control model presents combinations of working conditions that may facilitate learning, the active learning hypothesis, or have detrimental effects on health, the strain hypothesis. To test the active learning hypothesis, this study analysed the effects of job demands and job control on general problem-solving strategies. A population-based sample of 4,636 individuals (55% women, 45% men) with the same job characteristics measured at two times with a three year time lag was used. Main effects of demands, skill discretion, task authority and control, and the combined effects of demands and control were analysed in logistic regressions, on four outcomes representing general problem-solving strategies. Those reporting high on skill discretion, task authority and control, as well as those reporting high demand/high control and low demand/high control job characteristics were more likely to state using problem solving strategies. Results suggest that working conditions including high levels of control may affect how individuals cope with problems and that workplace characteristics may affect behaviour in the non-work domain.

Stochastic frequency-security constrained scheduling of a microgrid considering price-driven demand response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vahedipour-Dahraie, Mostafa; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Rashidizadeh-Kermani, Homa

2018-01-01

not only to maximize the expected profit of MG operator (MGO), but also to minimize the energy payments of customers. To study the effect of uncertain parameters and demand-side participation on system operating conditions, an AC-optimal power flow (AC-OPF) approach is also applied. The proposed stochastic...

Second life battery energy storage system for residential demand response service

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saez-de-Ibarra, Andoni; Martinez-Laserna, Egoitz; Koch-Ciobotaru, Cosmin

2015-01-01

vehicles, during their main first life application, for providing residential demand response service. The paper considers the decayed characteristics of these batteries and optimizes the rating of such a second life battery energy storage system (SLBESS) for maximizing the economic benefits of the user......The integration of renewable energies and the usage of battery energy storage systems (BESS) into the residential buildings opens the possibility for minimizing the electricity bill for the end-user. This paper proposes the use of batteries that have already been aged while powering electric......'s energy consumption during a period of one year. Furthermore, simulations were performed considering real data of PV generation, consumption, prices taken from the Spanish market and costs of battery and photovoltaic systems....

Modeling Relief Demands in an Emergency Supply Chain System under Large-Scale Disasters Based on a Queuing Network

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xinhua

2014-01-01

This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model. PMID:24688367

Modeling Relief Demands in an Emergency Supply Chain System under Large-Scale Disasters Based on a Queuing Network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xinhua He

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model.

Modeling relief demands in an emergency supply chain system under large-scale disasters based on a queuing network.

Science.gov (United States)

He, Xinhua; Hu, Wenfa

2014-01-01

This paper presents a multiple-rescue model for an emergency supply chain system under uncertainties in large-scale affected area of disasters. The proposed methodology takes into consideration that the rescue demands caused by a large-scale disaster are scattered in several locations; the servers are arranged in multiple echelons (resource depots, distribution centers, and rescue center sites) located in different places but are coordinated within one emergency supply chain system; depending on the types of rescue demands, one or more distinct servers dispatch emergency resources in different vehicle routes, and emergency rescue services queue in multiple rescue-demand locations. This emergency system is modeled as a minimal queuing response time model of location and allocation. A solution to this complex mathematical problem is developed based on genetic algorithm. Finally, a case study of an emergency supply chain system operating in Shanghai is discussed. The results demonstrate the robustness and applicability of the proposed model.

Uncertainty analysis of daily potable water demand on the performance evaluation of rainwater harvesting systems in residential buildings.

Science.gov (United States)

Silva, Arthur Santos; Ghisi, Enedir

2016-09-15

The objective of this paper is to perform a sensitivity analysis of design variables and an uncertainty analysis of daily potable water demand to evaluate the performance of rainwater harvesting systems in residential buildings. Eight cities in Brazil with different rainfall patterns were analysed. A numeric experiment was performed by means of computer simulation of rainwater harvesting. A sensitivity analysis was performed using variance-based indices for identifying the most important design parameters for rainwater harvesting systems when assessing the potential for potable water savings and underground tank capacity sizing. The uncertainty analysis was performed for different scenarios of potable water demand with stochastic variations in a normal distribution with different coefficients of variation throughout the simulated period. The results have shown that different design variables, such as potable water demand, number of occupants, rainwater demand, and roof area are important for obtaining the ideal underground tank capacity and estimating the potential for potable water savings. The stochastic variations on the potable water demand caused amplitudes of up to 4.8% on the potential for potable water savings and 9.4% on the ideal underground tank capacity. Average amplitudes were quite low for all cities. However, some combinations of parameters resulted in large amplitude of uncertainty and difference from uniform distribution for tank capacities and potential for potable water savings. Stochastic potable water demand generated low uncertainties in the performance evaluation of rainwater harvesting systems; therefore, uniform distribution could be used in computer simulation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Intercity Travel Demand Analysis Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ming Lu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available It is well known that intercity travel is an important component of travel demand which belongs to short distance corridor travel. The conventional four-step method is no longer suitable for short distance corridor travel demand analysis for the time spent on urban traffic has a great impact on traveler's main mode choice. To solve this problem, the author studied the existing intercity travel demand analysis model, then improved it based on the study, and finally established a combined model of main mode choice and access mode choice. At last, an integrated multilevel nested logit model structure system was built. The model system includes trip generation, destination choice, and mode-route choice based on multinomial logit model, and it achieved linkage and feedback of each part through logsum variable. This model was applied in Shenzhen intercity railway passenger demand forecast in 2010 as a case study. As a result, the forecast results were consistent with the actuality. The model's correctness and feasibility were verified.

Quantifying demand flexibility of power-to-heat and thermal energy storage in the control of building heating systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Finck, Christian; Li, Rongling; Kramer, Rick

2018-01-01

restricted by power-to-heat conversion such as heat pumps and thermal energy storage possibilities of a building. To quantify building demand flexibility, it is essential to capture the dynamic response of the building energy system with thermal energy storage. To identify the maximum flexibility a building......’s energy system can provide, optimal control is required. In this paper, optimal control serves to determine in detail demand flexibility of an office building equipped with heat pump, electric heater, and thermal energy storage tanks. The demand flexibility is quantified using different performance...... of TES and power-to-heat in any case of charging, discharging or idle mode. A simulation case study is performed showing that a water tank, a phase change material tank, and a thermochemical material tank integrated with building heating system can be designed to provide flexibility with optimal control....

Norwegian Residential Energy Demand: Coordinated use of a System Engineering and a Macroeconomic Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tor A Johnsen

1996-07-01

Full Text Available In Norway, the system engineering model MARKAL and the macroeconomic model MSG-EE are both used in studies of national CO2 controlling strategies. MARKAL is a linear programming model that calculates a composite set of technologies necessary to meet demand and environmental constraints at minimised total energy expenditure. MSG-EE is an applied general equilibrium model including the link between economic activity, energy demand and emissions to air. MSG-EE has a theory consistent description of the link between income, prices and energy demand, but the representation of technological improvements is simple. MARKAL has a sophisticated description of future energy technology options, but includes no feedback to the general economy. A project for studying the potential for a coordinated use of these two models was initiated and funded by the Norwegian Research Council (NFR. This paper gives a brief presentation of the two models. Results from independent model calculations show that MARKAL gives a signficant lower residential energy demand than MSG-EE does. This is explained by major differences in modelling approach. A first attempt of coordinating the residential energy demand in the models is reported. This attempt shows that implementing results from MARKAL, in MSG-EE for the residential sector alone gives little impact on the general economy. A further development of an iteration procedure between the models should include all energy using sectors.

Selection Demands and Working Memory Mediate Interference during Naming

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julie W Hughes

2015-05-01

Analyzing RTs, we replicated previous SI effects in BCN in healthy subjects and patients (reported effects’ p’s < .05. Subjects responded more slowly to items in semantically related vs. unrelated groups, and this interference increased across cycles (evidence of increasing selection demands; Figures 1a/c. Indicative of WM, healthy subjects were faster to name items as the number of unrelated items to be named (i.e., remembered decreased. However, this was attenuated by selection demand, as there was no decrease in RTs across repeated related items (Figure 1b. Converging evidence from patients demonstrated more impaired selection capacity produced increasingly slower RTs across item positions within the related condition (high selection demand (Figure 1d. Larger WM capacity (rhyme probe but not category probe, p = .54 produced increasingly faster RTs across items positions in the unrelated condition (low selection demand (Figure 1e. Together, these findings suggest that both selection demand and phonological WM processes mediate interference during naming.

Demand-Side Flexibility for Energy Transitions: Policy Recommendations for Developing Demand Response

OpenAIRE

Nursimulu, Anjali; Florin, Marie-Valentine; Vuille, François

2016-01-01

As a follow-up to IRGC's report on demand-side flexibility for energy transitions, this Policy Brief highlights that increasing flexibility in power systems is needed to accommodate higher shares of non-controllable and intermittent renewable generation, and that this requires changes to the market design and regulatory framework, to facilitate the development and deployment of appropriate technologies and market-based instruments (e.g. taxes and subsidies). The Policy Brief focuses on demand...

Sizing a solar dish Stirling micro-CHP system for residential application in diverse climatic conditions based on 3E analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moghadam, Ramin Shabanpour; Sayyaadi, Hoseyn; Hosseinzade, Hadi

2013-01-01

Highlights: • 3E analysis was performed on solar CHP systems. • Significant primary energy saving and greenhouse gas reduction were obtained. • The engine was sized so that it had the best economic sound. • Various criteria at different weathers were used for sizing the engine. - Abstract: A solar dish Stirling cogeneration system is considered to provide energy demands of a residential building. As energy demands of the building and output power of the engine are functions of weather condition and solar irradiation flux, the benchmark building was considered to be located in five different cities in Iran with diverse climatic and solar irradiation conditions. The proposed solar dish Stirling micro-CHP system was analyzed based on 3E analysis. The 3E analysis evaluated primary energy saving analysis (energy analysis), carbon dioxide emission reduction (environmental analysis) and payback period for return of investment (economic analysis) and was compared to a reference building that utilized primary energy carriers for its demands. Three scenarios were considered for assessment and sizing the solar dish Stirling engine. In the first scenario, size of the solar dish Stirling engine was selected based on the lowest annual electric power demand while, in second, the highest annual electric power consumption was considered to specify size of the engine. In the third scenario, a solar dish Stirling engine with constant output capacity was considered for the five locations. It was shown that implementing the solar dish Stirling micro-CHP system had good potential in primary energy saving and carbon dioxide emission reduction in all scenarios and acceptable payback period for return of the investment in some scenarios. Finally, the best scenario for selecting size of the engine in each city was introduced using the TOPSIS decision making method. It was demonstrated that, for dry weather, the first scenario was the best while, for hot and humid cities and

Uranium 2009 resources, production and demand

CERN Document Server

Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. Paris

2010-01-01

With several countries currently building nuclear power plants and planning the construction of more to meet long-term increases in electricity demand, uranium resources, production and demand remain topics of notable interest. In response to the projected growth in demand for uranium and declining inventories, the uranium industry – the first critical link in the fuel supply chain for nuclear reactors – is boosting production and developing plans for further increases in the near future. Strong market conditions will, however, be necessary to trigger the investments required to meet projected demand. The "Red Book", jointly prepared by the OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency, is a recognised world reference on uranium. It is based on information compiled in 40 countries, including those that are major producers and consumers of uranium. This 23rd edition provides a comprehensive review of world uranium supply and demand as of 1 January 2009, as well as data on global ur...

Attentional Demand of a Virtual Reality-Based Reaching Task in Nondisabled Older Adults

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-An; Chung, Yu-Chen; Proffitt, Rachel; Wade, Eric; Winstein, Carolee

2015-01-01

Attention during exercise is known to affect performance; however, the attentional demand inherent to virtual reality (VR)-based exercise is not well understood. We used a dual-task paradigm to compare the attentional demands of VR-based and non-VR-based (conventional, real-world) exercise: 22 non-disabled older adults performed a primary reaching task to virtual and real targets in a counterbalanced block order while verbally responding to an unanticipated auditory tone in one third of the trials. The attentional demand of the primary reaching task was inferred from the voice response time (VRT) to the auditory tone. Participants' engagement level and task experience were also obtained using questionnaires. The virtual target condition was more attention demanding (significantly longer VRT) than the real target condition. Secondary analyses revealed a significant interaction between engagement level and target condition on attentional demand. For participants who were highly engaged, attentional demand was high and independent of target condition. However, for those who were less engaged, attentional demand was low and depended on target condition (i.e., virtual > real). These findings add important knowledge to the growing body of research pertaining to the development and application of technology-enhanced exercise for elders and for rehabilitation purposes. PMID:27004233

Attentional Demand of a Virtual Reality-Based Reaching Task in Nondisabled Older Adults.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yi-An; Chung, Yu-Chen; Proffitt, Rachel; Wade, Eric; Winstein, Carolee

2015-12-01

Attention during exercise is known to affect performance; however, the attentional demand inherent to virtual reality (VR)-based exercise is not well understood. We used a dual-task paradigm to compare the attentional demands of VR-based and non-VR-based (conventional, real-world) exercise: 22 non-disabled older adults performed a primary reaching task to virtual and real targets in a counterbalanced block order while verbally responding to an unanticipated auditory tone in one third of the trials. The attentional demand of the primary reaching task was inferred from the voice response time (VRT) to the auditory tone. Participants' engagement level and task experience were also obtained using questionnaires. The virtual target condition was more attention demanding (significantly longer VRT) than the real target condition. Secondary analyses revealed a significant interaction between engagement level and target condition on attentional demand. For participants who were highly engaged, attentional demand was high and independent of target condition. However, for those who were less engaged, attentional demand was low and depended on target condition (i.e., virtual > real). These findings add important knowledge to the growing body of research pertaining to the development and application of technology-enhanced exercise for elders and for rehabilitation purposes.

Designing cellular manufacturing system under risk conditions ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper develops a mathematical modeling to design a cellular manufacturing system. In addition some of the total or portion of the demand of the part types can be subcontracted.. In order to designing the optimal CMS, we needs to detrmined a plan to produce and subcontract parts at a minimum cost and to mitigate the ...

Consumer demand and quality assurance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Grunert, Klaus G; Wognum, Nel; Trienekens, Jacques

2011-01-01

Consumers differ in their demands, and this mau have implications for the type of supply chain governance that is most suitable for serving them. We present a segmentation of pork consumers in the EU based on their food-related lifestyles and demand for different pork products. We then present...... an inventory of pork chain governance and quality management systems, also resulting from a pan-European study, and attempt to match types of chains to consumer segments, arguing that the type of quality demanded by the consumers has implications especially for the quality management system governing the chain......, and that these implications are different for fresh meat and processed meat. The paper closes with a call for more collaboration between chain researchers and consumer researchers....

Water use demand in the Crans-Montana-Sierre region (Switzerland)

Science.gov (United States)

Bonriposi, M.; Reynard, E.

2012-04-01

Crans-Montana-Sierre is an Alpine touristic region located in the driest area of Switzerland (Rhone River Valley, Canton of Valais), with both winter (ski) and summer (e.g. golf) tourist activities. Climate change as well as societal and economic development will in future significantly modify the supply and consumption of water and, consequently, may fuel conflicts of interest. Within the framework of the MontanAqua project (www.montanaqua.ch), we are researching more sustainable water management options based on the co-ordination and adaptation of water demand to water availability under changing biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. This work intends to quantify current water uses in the area and consider future scenarios (around 2050). We have focused upon the temporal and spatial characteristics of resource demand, in order to estimate the spatial footprint of water use (drinking water, hydropower production, irrigation and artificial snowmaking), in terms of system, infrastructure, and organisation of supply. We have then quantified these as precisely as possible (at the monthly temporal scale and at the municipality spatial scale). When the quantity of water was not measurable for practical reasons or for lack of data, as for the case for irrigation or snowmaking, an alternative approach was applied. Instead of quantifying how much water was used, the stress was put on the water needs for irrigating agricultural land or on the optimal meteorological conditions necessary to produce artificial snow. A huge summer peak and a smaller winter peak characterize the current regional water consumption estimation. The summer peak is mainly caused by irrigation and secondly by drinking water demand. The winter peak is essentially due to drinking water and snowmaking. Other consumption peaks exist at the municipality scale but they cannot be observed at the regional scale. The results show a major variation in water demand between the 11 concerned municipalities and

Demand controlled ventilation for multi-family dwellings

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mortensen, Dorthe Kragsig

for centrally balanced DCV systems with heat recovery. A design expected to fulfill this requirement was investigated in detail with regard to its electricity consumption by evaluating a control strategy that resets the static pressure set point at part load. The results showed that this control strategy can......The present thesis “Demand controlled ventilation for multi-family dwellings” constitutes the summary of a three year project period during which demand specification and system design of demand controlled ventilation for residential buildings were studied. Most standards and buildings codes...... can be reduced compared to a system with constant air flow. A literature study on indoor pollutants in homes, their sources and their impact on humans formed the basis for the demand specification. Emission of pollutants in residential buildings roughly fall into constantly emitted background sources...

Data-Driven Optimization of Incentive-based Demand Response System with Uncertain Responses of Customers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jimyung Kang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Demand response is nowadays considered as another type of generator, beyond just a simple peak reduction mechanism. A demand response service provider (DRSP can, through its subcontracts with many energy customers, virtually generate electricity with actual load reduction. However, in this type of virtual generator, the amount of load reduction includes inevitable uncertainty, because it consists of a very large number of independent energy customers. While they may reduce energy today, they might not tomorrow. In this circumstance, a DSRP must choose a proper set of these uncertain customers to achieve the exact preferred amount of load curtailment. In this paper, the customer selection problem for a service provider that consists of uncertain responses of customers is defined and solved. The uncertainty of energy reduction is fully considered in the formulation with data-driven probability distribution modeling and stochastic programming technique. The proposed optimization method that utilizes only the observed load data provides a realistic and applicable solution to a demand response system. The performance of the proposed optimization is verified with real demand response event data in Korea, and the results show increased and stabilized performance from the service provider’s perspective.

Does responsive pricing smooth demand shocks?

OpenAIRE

Pascal, Courty; Mario, Pagliero

2011-01-01

Using data from a unique pricing experiment, we investigate Vickrey’s conjecture that responsive pricing can be used to smooth both predictable and unpredictable demand shocks. Our evidence shows that increasing the responsiveness of price to demand conditions reduces the magnitude of deviations in capacity utilization rates from a pre-determined target level. A 10 percent increase in price variability leads to a decrease in the variability of capacity utilization rates between...

A Growing Demand for Monitoring and Evaluation in Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen Porter

2013-09-01

Full Text Available When decision-makers want to use evidence from monitoring and evaluation (M&E systems to assist them in making choices, there is a demand for M&E. When there is great capacity to supply M&E information, but low capacity to demand quality evidence, there is a mismatch between supply and demand. In this context, as Picciotto (2009 observed, ‘monitoring masquerades as evaluation’. This article applies this observation, using six case studies of African M&E systems, by asking: What evidence is there that African governments are developing stronger endogenous demand for evidence generated from M&E systems? The argument presented here is that demand for evidence is increasing, leading to further development of M&E systems, with monitoring being dominant. As part of this dominance there are attempts to align monitoring systems to emerging local demand, whilst donor demands are still important in several countries. There is also evidence of increasing demand through government-led evaluation systems in South Africa, Uganda and Benin. One of the main issues that this article notes is that the M&E systems are not yet conceptualised within a reform effort to introduce a comprehensive results-based orientation to the public services of these countries. Results concepts are not yet consistently applied throughout the M&E systems in the case countries. In addition, the results-based notions that are applied appear to be generating perverse incentives that reinforce upward compliance and contrôle to the detriment of more developmental uses of M&E evidence.

Electricity demand load forecasting of the Hellenic power system using an ARMA model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pappas, S.Sp. [ASPETE - School of Pedagogical and Technological Education Department of Electrical Engineering Educators N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Ekonomou, L.; Chatzarakis, G.E.; Skafidas, P.D. [ASPETE-School of Pedagogical and Technological Education, Department of Electrical Engineering Educators, N. Heraklion, 141 21 Athens (Greece); Karampelas, P. [Hellenic American University, IT Department, 12 Kaplanon Str., 106 80 Athens (Greece); Karamousantas, D.C. [Technological Educational Institute of Kalamata, Antikalamos, 24 100 Kalamata (Greece); Katsikas, S.K. [University of Piraeus, Department of Technology Education and Digital Systems, 150 Androutsou St., 18 532 Piraeus (Greece)

2010-03-15

Effective modeling and forecasting requires the efficient use of the information contained in the available data so that essential data properties can be extracted and projected into the future. As far as electricity demand load forecasting is concerned time series analysis has the advantage of being statistically adaptive to data characteristics compared to econometric methods which quite often are subject to errors and uncertainties in model specification and knowledge of causal variables. This paper presents a new method for electricity demand load forecasting using the multi-model partitioning theory and compares its performance with three other well established time series analysis techniques namely Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICC), Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) and Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC). The suitability of the proposed method is illustrated through an application to actual electricity demand load of the Hellenic power system, proving the reliability and the effectiveness of the method and making clear its usefulness in the studies that concern electricity consumption and electricity prices forecasts. (author)

Resiliently evolving supply-demand networks

Science.gov (United States)

Rubido, Nicolás; Grebogi, Celso; Baptista, Murilo S.

2014-01-01

The ability to design a transport network such that commodities are brought from suppliers to consumers in a steady, optimal, and stable way is of great importance for distribution systems nowadays. In this work, by using the circuit laws of Kirchhoff and Ohm, we provide the exact capacities of the edges that an optimal supply-demand network should have to operate stably under perturbations, i.e., without overloading. The perturbations we consider are the evolution of the connecting topology, the decentralization of hub sources or sinks, and the intermittence of supplier and consumer characteristics. We analyze these conditions and the impact of our results, both on the current United Kingdom power-grid structure and on numerically generated evolving archetypal network topologies.

Systems analysis on the condition of market penetration for hydrogen technologies using linear programming model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kato, K.; Ihara, S.

1993-01-01

Hydrogen is expected to be an important energy carrier, especially in the frame of global warming problem solution. The purpose of this study is to examine the condition of market penetration of hydrogen technologies in reducing CO 2 emissions. A multi-time-period linear programming model (MARKAL, Market Allocation)) is used to explore technology options and cost for meeting the energy demands while reducing CO 2 emissions from energy systems. The results show that hydrogen technologies become economical when CO 2 emissions are stringently constrained. 9 figs., 2 refs

Demand as frequency controlled reserve

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Xu, Z.; Togeby, M.; OEstergaard, J.

2008-09-15

Using demand as frequency controlled reserve (DFR) is an emerging technology which allow demand to participate actively in maintaining the system operation without reducing the energy service delivered to the customer and without need of user interaction. The basic premise is that traditional frequency controlled reserves from power plants and interconnections with neighbouring systems can be costly, slow and not fulfil the need for future power grids with a high share of wind power and fewer central power plants, and an intention to perform flexible operation such as is landing. Electricity demands, on the other hand, have advantages as frequency reserve including fast activation speed, smooth linear activation, low expected costs, and well-dispersed in the distribution grid. The main challenge of DFR is new methods for monitoring the available capacity. This project has investigated the technology of using electricity demands for providing frequency reserve to power systems. Within the project the potential and economy of DFR compatible loads in Denmark has been investigated, control logic has been designed, power system impact has been investigated, potential business models has been evaluated and an implementation strategy has been suggested. The tasks and goals of the project have been successfully accomplished based on which the conclusion and future recommendation are made. This project has developed the DFR technology that enables electricity demands to autonomously disconnect or reconnect to the grid in response to system frequency variations. The developed DFR technology is proved to be a promising technology from several perspectives. Technically, using DFR is feasible to provide reserves and enhance power system frequency control, while fulfilling technical requirements such as linear activation (or reconnection) according to frequency (or time). Environmentally, the DFR technology is pollution free in contrast to traditional reserves from generation

Too easy? The influence of task demands conveyed tacitly on prospective memory

Science.gov (United States)

Lourenço, Joana S.; Hill, Johnathan H.; Maylor, Elizabeth A.

2015-01-01

Previous research suggests that when intentions are encoded, participants establish an attention allocation policy based on their metacognitive beliefs about how demanding it will be to fulfill the prospective memory (PM) task. We investigated whether tacit PM demands can influence judgments about the cognitive effort required for success, and, as a result, affect ongoing task interference and PM performance. Participants performed a lexical decision task in which a PM task of responding to animal words was embedded. PM demands were tacitly manipulated by presenting participants with either typical or atypical animal exemplars at both instructions and practice (low vs. high tacit demands, respectively). Crucially, objective PM task demands were the same for all participants as PM targets were always atypical animals. Tacit demands affected participants’ attention allocation policies such that task interference was greater for the high than low demands condition. Also, PM performance was reduced in the low relative to the high demands condition. Participants in the low demands condition who succeeded to the first target showed a subsequent increase in task interference, suggesting adjustment to the higher than expected demands. This study demonstrates that tacit information regarding the PM task can affect ongoing task processing as well as harm PM performance when actual demands are higher than expected. Furthermore, in line with the proposal that attention allocation is a dynamic and flexible process, we found evidence that PM task experience can trigger changes in ongoing task interference. PMID:25983687

Condition monitoring of rotor blades of modern wind power systems; Ueberwachung mit Hertz. Condition Monitoring von Rotorblaettern moderner Windenergieanlagen

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fecht, Nikolaus

2010-06-15

With seven wind turbines, the Austrian wind farm ''Sternwald'' is the biggest wind farm in Upper Austria. It is the only wind farm in a forest, and all turbines are therefore equipped with automatic fire fighting equipment. The mountain range on which the wind farm is located is about 1000 m high, with strong wind and much ice and snow in the winter season. For this reason, the owner decided to instal a condition monitoring system with ice detectors. The piezoelectric sensors are mounted directly on the rotor blades as measurements on the nacelle will always be incorrect. Installation on the rotor blades, on the other hand, makes high demands on the fastenings and sensors as the velocity of the blade tips may be up to 250 km per hour. (orig.)

Optimal and Learning-Based Demand Response Mechanism for Electric Water Heater System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bo Lin

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates how to develop a learning-based demand response approach for electric water heater in a smart home that can minimize the energy cost of the water heater while meeting the comfort requirements of energy consumers. First, a learning-based, data-driven model of an electric water heater is developed by using a nonlinear autoregressive network with external input (NARX using neural network. The model is updated daily so that it can more accurately capture the actual thermal dynamic characteristics of the water heater especially in real-life conditions. Then, an optimization problem, based on the NARX water heater model, is formulated to optimize energy management of the water heater in a day-ahead, dynamic electricity price framework. A genetic algorithm is proposed in order to solve the optimization problem more efficiently. MATLAB (R2016a is used to evaluate the proposed learning-based demand response approach through a computational experiment strategy. The proposed approach is compared with conventional method for operation of an electric water heater. Cost saving and benefits of the proposed water heater energy management strategy are explored.

Assessing the Utility of a Demand Assessment for Functional Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Roscoe, Eileen M.; Rooker, Griffin W.; Pence, Sacha T.; Longworth, Lynlea J.

2009-01-01

We evaluated the utility of an assessment for identifying tasks for the functional analysis demand condition with 4 individuals who had been diagnosed with autism. During the demand assessment, a therapist presented a variety of tasks, and observers measured problem behavior and compliance to identify demands associated with low levels of…

Multi-modal demands of a smartphone used to place calls and enter addresses during highway driving relative to two embedded systems

Science.gov (United States)

Reimer, Bryan; Mehler, Bruce; Reagan, Ian; Kidd, David; Dobres, Jonathan

2016-01-01

Abstract There is limited research on trade-offs in demand between manual and voice interfaces of embedded and portable technologies. Mehler et al. identified differences in driving performance, visual engagement and workload between two contrasting embedded vehicle system designs (Chevrolet MyLink and Volvo Sensus). The current study extends this work by comparing these embedded systems with a smartphone (Samsung Galaxy S4). None of the voice interfaces eliminated visual demand. Relative to placing calls manually, both embedded voice interfaces resulted in less eyes-off-road time than the smartphone. Errors were most frequent when calling contacts using the smartphone. The smartphone and MyLink allowed addresses to be entered using compound voice commands resulting in shorter eyes-off-road time compared with the menu-based Sensus but with many more errors. Driving performance and physiological measures indicated increased demand when performing secondary tasks relative to ‘just driving’, but were not significantly different between the smartphone and embedded systems. Practitioner Summary: The findings show that embedded system and portable device voice interfaces place fewer visual demands on the driver than manual interfaces, but they also underscore how differences in system designs can significantly affect not only the demands placed on drivers, but also the successful completion of tasks. PMID:27110964

Multi-modal demands of a smartphone used to place calls and enter addresses during highway driving relative to two embedded systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Reimer, Bryan; Mehler, Bruce; Reagan, Ian; Kidd, David; Dobres, Jonathan

2016-12-01

There is limited research on trade-offs in demand between manual and voice interfaces of embedded and portable technologies. Mehler et al. identified differences in driving performance, visual engagement and workload between two contrasting embedded vehicle system designs (Chevrolet MyLink and Volvo Sensus). The current study extends this work by comparing these embedded systems with a smartphone (Samsung Galaxy S4). None of the voice interfaces eliminated visual demand. Relative to placing calls manually, both embedded voice interfaces resulted in less eyes-off-road time than the smartphone. Errors were most frequent when calling contacts using the smartphone. The smartphone and MyLink allowed addresses to be entered using compound voice commands resulting in shorter eyes-off-road time compared with the menu-based Sensus but with many more errors. Driving performance and physiological measures indicated increased demand when performing secondary tasks relative to 'just driving', but were not significantly different between the smartphone and embedded systems. Practitioner Summary: The findings show that embedded system and portable device voice interfaces place fewer visual demands on the driver than manual interfaces, but they also underscore how differences in system designs can significantly affect not only the demands placed on drivers, but also the successful completion of tasks.

Simulation-based Strategies for Smart Demand Response

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ines Leobner

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Demand Response can be seen as one effective way to harmonize demand and supply in order to achieve high self-coverage of energy consumption by means of renewable energy sources. This paper presents two different simulation-based concepts to integrate demand-response strategies into energy management systems in the customer domain of the Smart Grid. The first approach is a Model Predictive Control of the heating and cooling system of a low-energy office building. The second concept aims at industrial Demand Side Management by integrating energy use optimization into industrial automation systems. Both approaches are targeted at day-ahead planning. Furthermore, insights gained into the implications of the concepts onto the design of the model, simulation and optimization will be discussed. While both approaches share a similar architecture, different modelling and simulation approaches were required by the use cases.

Impact of Demand Response Programs on Optimal Operation of Multi-Microgrid System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anh-Duc Nguyen

2018-06-01

Full Text Available The increased penetration of renewables is beneficial for power systems but it poses several challenges, i.e., uncertainty in power supply, power quality issues, and other technical problems. Backup generators or storage system have been proposed to solve this problem but there are limitations remaining due to high installation and maintenance cost. Furthermore, peak load is also an issue in the power distribution system. Due to the adjustable characteristics of loads, strategies on demand side such as demand response (DR are more appropriate in order to deal with these challenges. Therefore, this paper studies how DR programs influence the operation of the multi-microgrid (MMG. The implementation is executed based on a hierarchical energy management system (HiEMS including microgrid EMSs (MG-EMSs responsible for local optimization in each MG and community EMS (C-EMS responsible for community optimization in the MMG. Mixed integer linear programming (MILP-based mathematical models are built for MMG optimal operation. Five scenarios consisting of single DR programs and DR groups are tested in an MMG test system to evaluate their impact on MMG operation. Among the five scenarios, some DR programs apply curtailing strategies, resulting in a study about the influence of base load value and curtailable load percentage on the amount of curtailed load and shifted load as well as the operation cost of the MMG. Furthermore, the impact of DR programs on the amount of external and internal trading power in the MMG is also examined. In summary, each individual DR program or group could be handy in certain situations depending on the interest of the MMG such as external trading, self-sufficiency or operation cost minimization.

Analysis on the Chinese Urban Sustainable Development Demands for the Management Plan of Intelligent Transportation Systems

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

赵历男

2002-01-01

This article analyzes the demands of the sustainable development and Chinese urban environmental protection for the management plan of intelligent transportation systems. The article also comments on how to work out the management plan of intelligent transportation systems with China's own characteristics.

Market design for rapid demand response

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Kurt; Tamirat, Tseganesh Wubale

We suggest a market design for rapid demand response in electricity markets. The solution consists of remotely controlled switches, meters, forecasting models as well as a flexible auction market to set prices and select endusers job by job. The auction market motivates truth-telling and makes...... it simple to involve the endusers in advance and to activate demand response immediately. The collective solution is analyzed and economic simulations are conducted for the case of Kenya. Kenya has been su ering from unreliable electricity supply for many years and companies and households have learned...... to adjust by investments in backup generators. We focus on turning the many private backup generators into a demand response system. The economic simulation focuses on possible distortion introduced by various ways of splitting the generated surplus from the demand response system. An auction run instantly...

Consumer demand system estimation and value added tax reforms in the Czech Republic

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Janský, Petr

2014-01-01

Roč. 64, č. 3 (2014), s. 246-273 ISSN 0015-1920 R&D Projects: GA TA ČR(CZ) TD010033 Institutional support: RVO:67985998 Keywords : consumer behavior * Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System * tax reforms Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 0.420, year: 2014 http://journal.fsv.cuni.cz/storage/1301_jansky.pdf

DEVELOPING GIS-BASED DEMAND-RESPONSIVE TRANSIT SYSTEM IN TEHRAN CITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H. Faroqi

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Create, maintain and development of public transport network in metropolitan are important problems in the field of urban transport management. In public transport, maximize the efficient use of public fleet capacity has been considered. Concepts and technologies of GIS have provided suitable way for management and optimization of the public transports systems. In demand-responsive public transportation system, firstly fellow traveller groups have been established for applicants based on spatial concepts and tools of GIS, second for each group according to its’ members and their paths, a public vehicle has been allocated to them then based on dynamic routing, the fellow passenger group has been gathered from their origins and has been moved to their destinations through optimal route. The suggested system has been implemented based on network data and commuting trips statistics of 1 to 6 districts in Tehran city. Evaluation performed on the results show the 34% increase using of Taxi capacity, 13% increase using of Van capacity and 10% increase using of Bus capacity in comparison between current public transport system and suggested public transportation system has been improved.

On inclusion of water resource management in Earth system models - Part 1: Problem definition and representation of water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Nazemi, A.; Wheater, H. S.

2015-01-01

Human activities have caused various changes to the Earth system, and hence the interconnections between human activities and the Earth system should be recognized and reflected in models that simulate Earth system processes. One key anthropogenic activity is water resource management, which determines the dynamics of human-water interactions in time and space and controls human livelihoods and economy, including energy and food production. There are immediate needs to include water resource management in Earth system models. First, the extent of human water requirements is increasing rapidly at the global scale and it is crucial to analyze the possible imbalance between water demands and supply under various scenarios of climate change and across various temporal and spatial scales. Second, recent observations show that human-water interactions, manifested through water resource management, can substantially alter the terrestrial water cycle, affect land-atmospheric feedbacks and may further interact with climate and contribute to sea-level change. Due to the importance of water resource management in determining the future of the global water and climate cycles, the World Climate Research Program's Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (WRCP-GEWEX) has recently identified gaps in describing human-water interactions as one of the grand challenges in Earth system modeling (GEWEX, 2012). Here, we divide water resource management into two interdependent elements, related firstly to water demand and secondly to water supply and allocation. In this paper, we survey the current literature on how various components of water demand have been included in large-scale models, in particular land surface and global hydrological models. Issues of water supply and allocation are addressed in a companion paper. The available algorithms to represent the dominant demands are classified based on the demand type, mode of simulation and underlying modeling assumptions. We discuss

Control strategies and cycling demands for Li-ion storage batteries in residential micro-cogeneration systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darcovich, K.; Kenney, B.; MacNeil, D.D.; Armstrong, M.M.

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Canadian home energy system modeled with PV, ICE CHP, battery and power grid. • Battery function is modeled on fundamental electrochemical principles. • Techno-economics of control strategies assessed. • Impact of control strategies battery cycles is developed for wear analysis. • Non-monotonic nature of battery cycles with transient renewables is discussed. - Abstract: Energy storage units have become important components in residential micro-cogeneration (MCG) systems. As MCG systems are often connected to single residences or buildings in a wide variety of settings, they are frequently unique and highly customized. Lithium-ion batteries have recently gained some profile as energy storage units of choice, because of their good capacity, high efficiency, robustness and ability to meet the demands of typical residential electrical loads. In the present work, modeled scenarios are explored which examine the performance of a MCG system with an internal combustion engine, photovoltaic input and a Li-ion storage battery. An electricity demand profile from new data collected in Ottawa, Canada is used to provide a full year energy use context for the analyses. The demands placed on the battery are examined to assess the suitability of the battery size and performance, as well as control related functionalities which reveal significantly varying battery use, and led to a quantitative expression for equivalent cycles. The energy use simulations are derived from electrochemical fundamentals adapted for a larger battery pack. Simulation output provides the basis for techno-economic commentary on how to assess large-scale Li-ion batteries for effective electrical storage purposes in MCG systems, and the impact of the nature of the control strategy on the battery service life

Social implications of residential demand response in cool temperate climates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Darby, Sarah J.; McKenna, Eoghan

2012-01-01

Residential electrical demand response (DR) offers the prospect of reducing the environmental impact of electricity use, and also the supply costs. However, the relatively small loads and numerous actors imply a large effort: response ratio. Residential DR may be an essential part of future smart grids, but how viable is it in the short to medium term? This paper reviews some DR concepts, then evaluates the propositions that households in cool temperate climates will be in a position to contribute to grid flexibility within the next decade, and that that they will allow some automated load control. Examples of demand response from around the world are discussed in order to assess the main considerations for cool climates. Different tariff types and forms of control are assessed in terms of what is being asked of electricity users, with a focus on real-time pricing and direct load control in energy systems with increasingly distributed resources. The literature points to the significance of thermal loads, supply mix, demand-side infrastructure, market regulation, and the framing of risks and opportunities associated with DR. In concentrating on social aspects of residential demand response, the paper complements the body of work on technical and economic potential. - Highlights: ► Demand response implies major change in governance of electricity systems. ► Households in cool temperate climates can be flexible, mainly with thermal loads. ► DR requires simple tariffs, appropriate enabling technology, education, and feedback. ► Need to test consumer acceptance of DR in specific conditions. ► Introduce tariffs with technologies e.g., TOU tariff plus DLC with electric vehicles.

Demand Response and Energy Storage Integration Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ma, Ookie; Cheung, Kerry; Olsen, Daniel J.; Matson, Nance; Sohn, Michael D.; Rose, Cody M.; Dudley, Junqiao Han; Goli, Sasank; Kiliccote, Sila; Cappers, Peter; MacDonald, Jason; Denholm, Paul; Hummon, Marissa; Jorgenson, Jennie; Palchak, David; Starke, Michael; Alkadi, Nasr; Bhatnagar, Dhruv; Currier, Aileen; Hernandez, Jaci; Kirby, Brendan; O' Malley, Mark

2016-03-01

Demand response and energy storage resources present potentially important sources of bulk power system services that can aid in integrating variable renewable generation. While renewable integration studies have evaluated many of the challenges associated with deploying large amounts of variable wind and solar generation technologies, integration analyses have not yet fully incorporated demand response and energy storage resources. This report represents an initial effort in analyzing the potential integration value of demand response and energy storage, focusing on the western United States. It evaluates two major aspects of increased deployment of demand response and energy storage: (1) Their operational value in providing bulk power system services and (2) Market and regulatory issues, including potential barriers to deployment.

Solar-assisted absorption air-conditioning systems in buildings: Control strategies and operational modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shirazi, Ali; Pintaldi, Sergio; White, Stephen D.; Morrison, Graham L.; Rosengarten, Gary; Taylor, Robert A.

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A simulation model of a solar driven absorption chiller is developed in detail. • Three control strategies were proposed in the solar loop of the plant. • Series and parallel auxiliary heater arrangements were investigated. • The results showed the auxiliary-heater in parallel outperformed the series one. • Solar fraction can be increased by 20% by implementing the proposed configuration. - Abstract: Solar-assisted cooling technology has enormous potential for air-conditioning applications since both solar energy supply and cooling energy demand are well correlated. Unfortunately, market uptake of solar cooling technologies has been slow due to the high capital cost and limited design/operational experience. In the present work, different designs and operational modes for solar heating and cooling (SHC) absorption chiller systems are investigated and compared in order to identify the preferred design strategies for these systems. Three control scenarios are proposed for the solar collector loop. The first uses a constant flow pump, while the second and third control schemes employ a variable speed pump, where the solar collector (SC) set-point temperature could be either fixed or adjusted to the required demand. Series and parallel arrangements, between the auxiliary heater and the storage tank, have been examined in detail from an energy efficiency perspective. A simulation model for different system layouts is developed in the transient system simulation environment (TRNSYS, Version 17). Simulation results revealed that the total solar fraction of the plant is increased by up to 11% when a variable speed solar loop pump is used to achieve a collector set-point temperature adjusted according to the building load demand. Another significant finding of this study is that a parallel configuration for the auxiliary heater out-performs a conventional series configuration. The yearly performance of an auxiliary heater in parallel with the storage

Climate protection by reducing cooling demands in buildings; Klimaschutz durch Reduzierung des Energiebedarfs fuer Gebaeudekuehlung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bettgenhaeuser, Kjell; Boermans, Thomas; Offermann, Markus; Krechting, Anja; Becker, Daniel [Ecofys Germany GmbH, Koeln (Germany)

2011-06-15

The aim of this study is to conduct estimation on the potential reduction in electricity demand from cooling appliances in buildings in Germany. Current electricity demand and greenhouse-gas emissions will be investigated through desk research for residential and non-residential buildings. Based on building simulations, conventional, alternative and renewable technologies will be compared for different reference buildings. An economic and environmental assessment will evaluate the technologies per reference building in further detail. The main result will be an estimation of the potential energy demand reduction for the alternative/ regenerative technologies in the building stock. This will be based on the conditioned floor area and retrofit rates per system. Furthermore, the influence of cooling in buildings on energy demand will be annotated. Barriers in the reduction of energy demand will be described possible actions will be discussed along with types of policy instruments and consumer information. (orig.)

Correlations between Energy and Displacement Demands for Performance-Based Seismic Engineering

Science.gov (United States)

Mollaioli, Fabrizio; Bruno, Silvia; Decanini, Luis; Saragoni, Rodolfo

2011-01-01

(that can be considered as parameters representative of the amplitude, frequency content and duration of earthquake ground motions) and displacement-based response measures that are well correlated to structural and non-structural damage. For the purpose of quantifying the EDPs to be related to the energy measures, for comprehensive range of ground motion and structural characteristics, both simplified and more accurate numerical models will be used in this study for the estimation of local and global displacement and energy demands. Parametric linear and nonlinear time-history analyses will be performed on elastic and inelastic SDOF and MDOF systems, in order to assume information on the seismic response of a wide range of current structures. Hysteretic models typical of frame force/displacement behavior will be assumed for the local inelastic cyclic response of the systems. A wide range of vibration periods will be taken into account so as to define displacement, interstory drift and energy spectra for MDOF systems. Various scalar measures related to the deformation demand will be used in this research. These include the spectral displacements, the peak roof drift ratio, and the peak interstory drift ratio. A total of about 900 recorded ground motions covering a broad variety of condition in terms of frequency content, duration and amplitude will be used as input in the dynamic analyses. The records are obtained from 40 earthquakes and grouped as a function of magnitude of the event, source-to-site condition and site soil condition. In addition, in the data-set of records a considerable number of near-fault signals is included, in recognition of the particular significance of pulse-like time histories in causing large seismic demands to the structures.

Development of the Optimum Operation Scheduling Model of Domestic Electric Appliances for the Supply-Demand Adjustment in a Power System

Science.gov (United States)

Ikegami, Takashi; Iwafune, Yumiko; Ogimoto, Kazuhiko

The high penetration of variable renewable generation such as Photovoltaic (PV) systems will cause the issue of supply-demand imbalance in a whole power system. The activation of the residential power usage, storage and generation by sophisticated scheduling and control using the Home Energy Management System (HEMS) will be needed to balance power supply and demand in the near future. In order to evaluate the applicability of the HEMS as a distributed controller for local and system-wide supply-demand balances, we developed an optimum operation scheduling model of domestic electric appliances using the mixed integer linear programming. Applying this model to several houses with dynamic electricity prices reflecting the power balance of the total power system, it was found that the adequate changes in electricity prices bring about the shift of residential power usages to control the amount of the reverse power flow due to excess PV generation.

Hot Gas Conditioning: Recent Progress with Larger-Scale Biomass Gasification Systems; Update and Summary of Recent Progress

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stevens, D. J.

2001-09-01

As a result of environmental and policy considerations, there is increasing interest in using renewable biomass resources as feedstock for power, fuels, and chemicals and hydrogen. Biomass gasification is seen as an important technology component for expanding the use of biomass. Advanced biomass gasification systems provide clean products that can be used as fuel or synthesis gases in a variety of environmentally friendly processes. Advanced end-use technologies such as gas turbines or synthesis gas systems require high quality gases with narrowly defined specifications. Other systems such as boilers may also have fuel quality requirements, but they will be substantially less demanding. The gas product from biomass gasifiers contains quantities of particulates, tars, and other constituents that may exceed these specified limits. As a result, gas cleaning and conditioning will be required in most systems. Over the past decade, significant research and development activities have been conducted on the topic of gas cleanup and conditioning. This report provides an update of efforts related to large-scale biomass gasification systems and summarizes recent progress. Remaining research and development issues are also summarized.

Subsea innovative boosting technologies on deep water scenarios -- Impacts and demands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caetano, E.F.; Mendonca, J.E.; Pagot, P.R.; Cotrim, M.L.; Camargo, R.M.T.; Assayag, M.I.

1995-01-01

This paper presents the importance of deep water scenario for Brazil, the PETROBRAS Deep and Ultra-Deep Water R and D Program (PROCAP-2000) and the candidate fields for the deployment of subsea innovative boosting technologies (ESPS -- electrical submersible pump in subsea wells, SSS -- subsea separation systems and SBMS -- subsea multiphase flow pumping system) as well as the problems associated with the flow assurance in such conditions. The impact of those innovative systems, their technological stage and remaining demands to make them available for deployment in offshore subsea areas, mainly in giant deepwater fields, are discussed and predicted

Open Automated Demand Response Communications Specification (Version 1.0)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piette, Mary Ann; Ghatikar, Girish; Kiliccote, Sila; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan; Palensky, Peter; McParland, Charles

2009-02-28

The development of the Open Automated Demand Response Communications Specification, also known as OpenADR or Open Auto-DR, began in 2002 following the California electricity crisis. The work has been carried out by the Demand Response Research Center (DRRC), which is managed by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. This specification describes an open standards-based communications data model designed to facilitate sending and receiving demand response price and reliability signals from a utility or Independent System Operator to electric customers. OpenADR is one element of the Smart Grid information and communications technologies that are being developed to improve optimization between electric supply and demand. The intention of the open automated demand response communications data model is to provide interoperable signals to building and industrial control systems that are preprogrammed to take action based on a demand response signal, enabling a demand response event to be fully automated, with no manual intervention. The OpenADR specification is a flexible infrastructure to facilitate common information exchange between the utility or Independent System Operator and end-use participants. The concept of an open specification is intended to allow anyone to implement the signaling systems, the automation server or the automation clients.

Stochastic weather inputs for improved urban water demand forecasting: application of nonlinear input variable selection and machine learning methods

Science.gov (United States)

Quilty, J.; Adamowski, J. F.

2015-12-01

Urban water supply systems are often stressed during seasonal outdoor water use as water demands related to the climate are variable in nature making it difficult to optimize the operation of the water supply system. Urban water demand forecasts (UWD) failing to include meteorological conditions as inputs to the forecast model may produce poor forecasts as they cannot account for the increase/decrease in demand related to meteorological conditions. Meteorological records stochastically simulated into the future can be used as inputs to data-driven UWD forecasts generally resulting in improved forecast accuracy. This study aims to produce data-driven UWD forecasts for two different Canadian water utilities (Montreal and Victoria) using machine learning methods by first selecting historical UWD and meteorological records derived from a stochastic weather generator using nonlinear input variable selection. The nonlinear input variable selection methods considered in this work are derived from the concept of conditional mutual information, a nonlinear dependency measure based on (multivariate) probability density functions and accounts for relevancy, conditional relevancy, and redundancy from a potential set of input variables. The results of our study indicate that stochastic weather inputs can improve UWD forecast accuracy for the two sites considered in this work. Nonlinear input variable selection is suggested as a means to identify which meteorological conditions should be utilized in the forecast.

Labour Demand and Exchange Rate Volatility

OpenAIRE

Udo Broll; Sabine Hansen

2004-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to assess under what conditions exchange rate volatility exerts a positive effect on a firm's labour demand. As the exchange rate volatility increases, so does the value of the export option provided the firm under study is flexible. Flexibility is important because it gives the firm option value. Higher volatility increases the potential gains from trade and may increase the demand for labour. This may explain part of the mixed empirical findings regarding the ef...

Introducing a demand-based electricity distribution tariff in the residential sector: Demand response and customer perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartusch, Cajsa; Wallin, Fredrik; Odlare, Monica; Vassileva, Iana; Wester, Lars

2011-01-01

Increased demand response is essential to fully exploit the Swedish power system, which in turn is an absolute prerequisite for meeting political goals related to energy efficiency and climate change. Demand response programs are, nonetheless, still exceptional in the residential sector of the Swedish electricity market, one contributory factor being lack of knowledge about the extent of the potential gains. In light of these circumstances, this empirical study set out with the intention of estimating the scope of households' response to, and assessing customers' perception of, a demand-based time-of-use electricity distribution tariff. The results show that households as a whole have a fairly high opinion of the demand-based tariff and act on its intrinsic price signals by decreasing peak demand in peak periods and shifting electricity use from peak to off-peak periods. - Highlights: → Households are sympathetic to demand-based tariffs, seeing as they relate to environmental issues. → Households adjust their electricity use to the price signals of demand-based tariffs. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a shift in electricity use from peak to off-peak hours. → Demand-based tariffs lead to a decrease in maximum demand in peak periods. → Magnitude of these effects increases over time.

An electricity generation planning model incorporating demand response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Dong Gu; Thomas, Valerie M.

2012-01-01

Energy policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions and change the mix of electricity generation sources, such as carbon cap-and-trade systems and renewable electricity standards, can affect not only the source of electricity generation, but also the price of electricity and, consequently, demand. We develop an optimization model to determine the lowest cost investment and operation plan for the generating capacity of an electric power system. The model incorporates demand response to price change. In a case study for a U.S. state, we show the price, demand, and generation mix implications of a renewable electricity standard, and of a carbon cap-and-trade policy with and without initial free allocation of carbon allowances. This study shows that both the demand moderating effects and the generation mix changing effects of the policies can be the sources of carbon emissions reductions, and also shows that the share of the sources could differ with different policy designs. The case study provides different results when demand elasticity is excluded, underscoring the importance of incorporating demand response in the evaluation of electricity generation policies. - Highlights: ► We develop an electric power system optimization model including demand elasticity. ► Both renewable electricity and carbon cap-and-trade policies can moderate demand. ► Both policies affect the generation mix, price, and demand for electricity. ► Moderated demand can be a significant source of carbon emission reduction. ► For cap-and-trade policies, initial free allowances change outcomes significantly.

Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand forecast by fuzzy logic approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kucukali, Serhat; Baris, Kemal

2010-01-01

This paper aims to forecast Turkey's short-term gross annual electricity demand by applying fuzzy logic methodology while general information on economical, political and electricity market conditions of the country is also given. Unlike most of the other forecast models about Turkey's electricity demand, which usually uses more than one parameter, gross domestic product (GDP) based on purchasing power parity was the only parameter used in the model. Proposed model made good predictions and captured the system dynamic behavior covering the years of 1970-2014. The model yielded average absolute relative errors of 3.9%. Furthermore, the model estimates a 4.5% decrease in electricity demand of Turkey in 2009 and the electricity demand growth rates are projected to be about 4% between 2010 and 2014. It is concluded that forecasting the Turkey's short-term gross electricity demand with the country's economic performance will provide more reliable projections. Forecasting the annual electricity consumption of a country could be made by any designer with the help of the fuzzy logic procedure described in this paper. The advantage of this model lies on the ability to mimic the human thinking and reasoning.

A method of determining the thermal power demand of buildings connected to the district heating system with usage of heat accumulation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Turski Michał

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper presents a new method of determining the thermal power demand of buildings connected to the district heating system, which included the actual heat demand and the possibility of balancing the thermal power using the thermal storage capacity of district heating network and internal heat capacity of buildings. Moreover, the analysis of the effect of incidence of external air temperature and duration of episodes with the lowest outdoor temperatures on the thermal power demand of district heating system was conducted.

Using Hydrated Salt Phase Change Materials for Residential Air Conditioning Peak Demand Reduction and Energy Conservation in Coastal and Transitional Climates in the State of California

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Kyoung Ok

The recent rapid economic and population growth in the State of California have led to a significant increase in air conditioning use, especially in areas of the State with coastal and transitional climates. This fact makes that the electric peak demand be dominated by air conditioning use of residential buildings in the summer time. This extra peak demand caused by the use of air conditioning equipment lasts only a few days out of the year. As a result, unavoidable power outages have occurred when electric supply could not keep up with such electric demand. This thesis proposed a possible solution to this problem by using building thermal mass via phase change materials to reduce peak air conditioning demand loads. This proposed solution was tested via a new wall called Phase Change Frame Wall (PCFW). The PCFW is a typical residential frame wall in which Phase Change Materials (PCMs) were integrated to add thermal mass. The thermal performance of the PCFWs was first evaluated, experimentally, in two test houses, built for this purpose, located in Lawrence, KS and then via computer simulations of residential buildings located in coastal and transitional climates in California. In this thesis, a hydrated salt PCM was used, which was added in concentrations of 10% and 20% by weight of the interior sheathing of the walls. Based on the experimental results, under Lawrence, KS weather, the PCFWs at 10% and 20% of PCM concentrations reduced the peak heat transfer rates by 27.0% and 27.3%, on average, of all four walls, respectively. Simulated results using California climate data indicated that PCFWs would reduce peak heat transfer rates by 8% and 19% at 10% PCM concentration and 12.2% and 27% at 20% PCM concentration for the coastal and transitional climates, respectively. Furthermore, the PCFWs, at 10% PCM concentration, would reduce the space cooling load and the annual energy consumption by 10.4% and 7.2%, on average in both climates, respectively.

Transactive Control of Commercial Buildings for Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hao, He; Corbin, Charles D.; Kalsi, Karanjit; Pratt, Robert G.

2017-01-01

Transactive control is a type of distributed control strategy that uses market mechanism to engage self-interested responsive loads to achieve power balance in the electrical power grid. In this paper, we propose a transactive control approach of commercial building Heating, Ventilation, and Air- Conditioning (HVAC) systems for demand response. We first describe the system models, and identify their model parameters using data collected from Systems Engineering Building (SEB) located on our Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) campus. We next present a transactive control market structure for commercial building HVAC system, and describe its agent bidding and market clearing strategies. Several case studies are performed in a simulation environment using Building Control Virtual Test Bed (BCVTB) and calibrated SEB EnergyPlus model. We show that the proposed transactive control approach is very effective at peak clipping, load shifting, and strategic conservation for commercial building HVAC systems.

Demand response in a market environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Emil Mahler

This thesis addresses the design, deployment and benefits of demand response in a market environment. Demand response is consumption that can be controlled by an external stimulus in the power system. Flexible consumption is a useful tool for absorbing volatile power from renewable sources like...... this simulation, real power system data from the Danish island of Bornholm is introduced and methods to quantify an aggregated load is developed. These methods can be used for real-time operation and to support investment decisions. More specifically, they can be used to forecast the response to electricity...... pricing and to classify different types of customers. The proposed models are then embedded into new fiveminute electricity markets for system balancing and local congestion management. New market tools for exploiting and maintaining a degree of control over demand are developed, and the value of DR using...

Refrigerated Warehouse Demand Response Strategy Guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scott, Doug [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Castillo, Rafael [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Larson, Kyle [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Dobbs, Brian [VaCom Technologies, San Luis Obispo, CA (United States); Olsen, Daniel [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2015-11-01

This guide summarizes demand response measures that can be implemented in refrigerated warehouses. In an appendix, it also addresses related energy efficiency opportunities. Reducing overall grid demand during peak periods and energy consumption has benefits for facility operators, grid operators, utility companies, and society. State wide demand response potential for the refrigerated warehouse sector in California is estimated to be over 22.1 Megawatts. Two categories of demand response strategies are described in this guide: load shifting and load shedding. Load shifting can be accomplished via pre-cooling, capacity limiting, and battery charger load management. Load shedding can be achieved by lighting reduction, demand defrost and defrost termination, infiltration reduction, and shutting down miscellaneous equipment. Estimation of the costs and benefits of demand response participation yields simple payback periods of 2-4 years. To improve demand response performance, it’s suggested to install air curtains and another form of infiltration barrier, such as a rollup door, for the passageways. Further modifications to increase efficiency of the refrigeration unit are also analyzed. A larger condenser can maintain the minimum saturated condensing temperature (SCT) for more hours of the day. Lowering the SCT reduces the compressor lift, which results in an overall increase in refrigeration system capacity and energy efficiency. Another way of saving energy in refrigerated warehouses is eliminating the use of under-floor resistance heaters. A more energy efficient alternative to resistance heaters is to utilize the heat that is being rejected from the condenser through a heat exchanger. These energy efficiency measures improve efficiency either by reducing the required electric energy input for the refrigeration system, by helping to curtail the refrigeration load on the system, or by reducing both the load and required energy input.

Stochastic model of forecasting spare parts demand

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivan S. Milojević

2012-01-01

Full Text Available If demand is known for the whole planning period (complete information, then this type of demand or a supply system is deterministic. In the simplest cases, the demand per time unit is constant. If demand levels change over time following a precisely determined and pre-known principle, this type of demand is also classified as deterministic. This quality of demand is very rare. In most cases demand is the product of a process, for example TMS maintenance, whose progression cannot be predicted due to a number of factors influencing the process and causing random demand changes. In this case, a supply system must function according to the complete information and with a certain degree of uncertainty. In cases when demand may be defined by some of the laws of the probability theory, we are talking about stochastic demand and a stochastic supply system. Demand can be described by mathematical expectation, mathematical expectation and standard deviation, probability distribution or as a random process. However, there is usually a need for the most complex description, i.e. the complex random process because both intensity of demand and the probability distribution change during the observed intervals. The level of temporal (dynamic series is traditionally considered as a complex phenomenon consisting of four components: - basic tendency of phenomenon development - cyclical impact (long-term, 'ancient' - seasonal effects - random fluctuations. The basic tendency of phenomenon development means a long-term evolution of phenomena. A function that expresses the trajectory of changes of the basic tendency of a phenomenon development in the form of the equation is called a trend. Often, the trend involves time regression; i.e. the coefficients of the proposed functions are often determined by the least squares method. To roughly determine the coefficients of the proposed function, the sum of three and three-point methods are also used. After checking the

Solar-Driven Air-Conditioning Cycles: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. M. Abu-Zour

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Most conventional cooling/refrigeration systems are driven by fossil fuel combustion, and therefore give rise to emission of environmentally damaging pollutants. In addition, many cooling systems employ refrigerants, which are also harmful to the environment in terms of their Global Warming Potential (GWP and Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP. Development of a passive or hybrid solar-driven air-conditioning system is therefore of interest as exploitation of such systems would reduce the demand for grid electricity particularly at times of peak load. This paper presents a review of various cooling cycles and summarises work carried out on solar-driven air-conditioning systems.

Aviation Frontiers: On-Demand Aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, Mark D.

2010-01-01

Throughout the 20th Century, NASA has defined the forefront of aeronautical technology, and the aviation industry owes much of its prosperity to this knowledge and technology. In recent decades, centralized aeronautics has become a mature discipline, which raises questions concerning the future aviation innovation frontiers. Three transformational aviation capabilities, bounded together by the development of a Free Flight airspace management system, have the potential to transform 21st Century society as profoundly as civil aviation transformed the 20th Century. These mobility breakthroughs will re-establish environmental sustainable centralized aviation, while opening up latent markets for civil distributed sensing and on-demand rural and regional transportation. Of these three transformations, on-demand aviation has the potential to have the largest market and productivity improvement to society. The information system revolution over the past 20 years shows that vehicles lead, and the interconnecting infrastructure to make them more effective follows; that is, unless on-demand aircraft are pioneered, a distributed Air Traffic Control system will likely never be established. There is no single technology long-pole that will enable on-demand vehicle solutions. However, fully digital aircraft that include electric propulsion has the potential to be a multi-disciplinary initiator of solid state technologies that can provide order of magnitude improvements in the ease of use, safety/reliability, community and environmental friendliness, and affordability.

Impact of Scheduling Flexibility on Demand Profile Flatness and User Inconvenience in Residential Smart Grid System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naveed Ul Hassan

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to study the impact of scheduling flexibility on both demand profile flatness and user inconvenience in residential smart grid systems. Temporal variations in energy consumption by end users result in peaks and troughs in the aggregated demand profile. In a residential smart grid, some of these peaks and troughs can be eliminated through appropriate load balancing algorithms. However, load balancing requires user participation by allowing the grid to re-schedule some of their loads. In general, more scheduling flexibility can result in more demand profile flatness, however the resulting inconvenience to users would also increase. In this paper, our objective is to help the grid determine an appropriate amount of scheduling flexibility that it should demand from users, based on which, proper incentives can be designed. We consider three different types of scheduling flexibility (delay, advance scheduling and flexible re-scheduling in flexible loads and develop both optimal and sub-optimal scheduling algorithms. We discuss their implementation in centralized and distributed manners. We also identify the existence of a saturation point. Beyond this saturation point, any increase in scheduling flexibility does not significantly affect the flatness of the demand profile while user inconvenience continues to increase. Moreover, full participation of all the households is not required since increasing user participation only marginally increases demand profile flatness.

Streamlining On-Demand Access to Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) Data Products for Weather Forecasting

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, J. D.; Tislin, D.

2017-12-01

Observations from the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) support National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters, whose Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS) Data Delivery (DD) will access JPSS data products on demand from the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) Product Distribution and Access (PDA) service. Based on the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Coverage Service, this on-demand service promises broad interoperability and frugal use of data networks by serving only the data that a user needs. But the volume, velocity, and variety of JPSS data products impose several challenges to such a service. It must be efficient to handle large volumes of complex, frequently updated data, and to fulfill many concurrent requests. It must offer flexible data handling and delivery, to work with a diverse and changing collection of data, and to tailor its outputs into products that users need, with minimal coordination between provider and user communities. It must support 24x7 operation, with no pauses in incoming data or user demand; and it must scale to rapid changes in data volume, variety, and demand as new satellites launch, more products come online, and users rely increasingly on the service. We are addressing these challenges in order to build an efficient and effective on-demand JPSS data service. For example, on-demand subsetting by many users at once may overload a server's processing capacity or its disk bandwidth - unless alleviated by spatial indexing, geolocation transforms, or pre-tiling and caching. Filtering by variable (/ band / layer) may also alleviate network loads, and provide fine-grained variable selection; to that end we are investigating how best to provide random access into the variety of spatiotemporal JPSS data products. Finally, producing tailored products (derivatives, aggregations) can boost flexibility for end users; but some tailoring operations may impose significant server loads

The year that was : getting a bead on oil demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Knapp, D.

2002-01-01

The qualitative factors that generally impact oil demand were reviewed with particular reference to how each factor played out in year 2001 when oil patterns never seemed to establish themselves. In the first part of 2001, growth was slightly too fast while in the second half it was a bit too slow. The normal impacts of the economy, oil prices, weather, and gas market developments did not play out with typical timing or degree, particularly with the advent of September 11 and the special conditions that dominated some products in specialized markets such as jet fuel or U.S. utilities gas substitutable oil generation. This presentation addresses the changing geographic mix of oil demand as it relates to differences in economic conditions and how oil price changes affect different consuming countries. Year 2001 also saw widely varied weather conditions worldwide. General oil market balances affect oil demand, but most focus in 2001 was directed toward oil supply, on OPEC compliance and on OPEC/non-OPEC cooperation. However, oil demand will continue to be a critical factor within petroleum markets. It is predicted that growth in demand for oil and not oil production will save the day for producers in the second half of 2002. 10 figs

Electric Water Heater Modeling and Control Strategies for Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Elizondo, Marcelo A.; Mayhorn, Ebony T.; Zhang, Yu; Samaan, Nader A.

2012-07-22

Abstract— Demand response (DR) has a great potential to provide balancing services at normal operating conditions and emergency support when a power system is subject to disturbances. Effective control strategies can significantly relieve the balancing burden of conventional generators and reduce investment on generation and transmission expansion. This paper is aimed at modeling electric water heaters (EWH) in households and tests their response to control strategies to implement DR. The open-loop response of EWH to a centralized signal is studied by adjusting temperature settings to provide regulation services; and two types of decentralized controllers are tested to provide frequency support following generator trips. EWH models are included in a simulation platform in DIgSILENT to perform electromechanical simulation, which contains 147 households in a distribution feeder. Simulation results show the dependence of EWH response on water heater usage . These results provide insight suggestions on the need of control strategies to achieve better performance for demand response implementation. Index Terms— Centralized control, decentralized control, demand response, electrical water heater, smart grid

Projecting supply and demand of hydrologic ecosystem services under future climate conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Huang, Tao; Lee, Tsung-Yu

2014-05-01

Ecosystems provide essential goods and services, such as food, clean water, water purification, soil conservation and cultural services for human being. In a watershed, these water-related ecosystem goods and services can directly or indirectly benefit both local people and downstream beneficiaries through a reservoir. Water quality and quantity in a reservoir are of importance for agricultural, industrial and domestic uses. Under the impacts of climate and land use changes, both ecosystem service supply and demand will be affected by changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, urbanization and agricultural activities. However, the linkage between ecosystem service provisioning (ESP) and ecosystem service beneficiary (ESB), and scales of supply and demand of ecosystem services are not clear yet. Therefore, to investigate water-related ecosystem service supply under climate and land use change, we took the Xindian river watershed (303 km2) as a case study, where the Feitsui Reservoir provides hydro-power and daily domestic water use of 3,450,000 m3 for 3.46 million people in Taipei, Taiwan. We integrated a hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT) and a land use change model (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects, CLUE-s) with future climate change scenarios derived from General Circulation Models (GCMs), to assess the changes in ecosystem service supply and demand at different hydrologic scales. The results will provide useful information for decision-making on future land use management and climate change adaptation strategies in the watersheds. Keywords: climate change, land use change, ecosystem service, watershed, scale

Air conditioning and power generation for residential applications using liquid nitrogen

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad, Abdalqader; Al-Dadah, Raya; Mahmoud, Saad

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Using liquid nitrogen to provide power and air conditioning for domestic applications. • The proposed system leads to save energy and reduce the peak electricity demands. • Compared with conventional AC saving up to 36% was achieved at the current LN2 price. • The widespread of this technology leads to lower LN2 price and saving up to 81%. • The last configuration was the efficient system with overall thermal efficiency 74%. - Abstract: Current air conditioning (AC) systems consume a significant amount of energy, particularly during peak times where most electricity suppliers face difficulties to meet the users’ demands, and the global demands for AC systems have increased rapidly over the last few decades leading to significant power consumption and carbon dioxide emissions. This paper presents a new technique that uses liquid nitrogen (LN2) produced from renewable energy sources, or surplus electricity at off peak times, to provide cooling and power for domestic houses. Thermodynamic analyses of various cryogenic cycles have been carried out to achieve the most effective configuration that produces the maximum power output with minimum LN2 flow rate, to meet the required cooling of a 170 m"2 dwelling in Libya. A comparison with a conventional AC system was also made. Results showed that at the current LN2 prices, using LN2 to provide cooling and power demands of residential buildings is feasible and saves up to 36% compared to conventional air conditioning systems with an overall thermal efficiency of 74%. However, as the LN2 price decreases to around 1.3 pence per kg, the proposed technology will have significant advantages compared to conventional AC systems with savings of up to 81%.

The optimization of demand response programs in smart grids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Derakhshan, Ghasem; Shayanfar, Heidar Ali; Kazemi, Ahad

2016-01-01

The potential to schedule portion of the electricity demand in smart energy systems is clear as a significant opportunity to enhance the efficiency of the grids. Demand response is one of the new developments in the field of electricity which is meant to engage consumers in improving the energy consumption pattern. We used Teaching & Learning based Optimization (TLBO) and Shuffled Frog Leaping (SFL) algorithms to propose an optimization model for consumption scheduling in smart grid when payment costs of different periods are reduced. This study conducted on four types residential consumers obtained in the summer for some residential houses located in the centre of Tehran city in Iran: first with time of use pricing, second with real-time pricing, third one with critical peak pricing, and the last consumer had no tariff for pricing. The results demonstrate that the adoption of demand response programs can reduce total payment costs and determine a more efficient use of optimization techniques. - Highlights: •An optimization model for the demand response program is made. •TLBO and SFL algorithms are applied to reduce payment costs in smart grid. •The optimal condition is provided for the maximization of the social welfare problem. •An application to some residential houses located in the centre of Tehran city in Iran is demonstrated.

Ontario demand response scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rowlands, I.H.

2005-09-01

Strategies for demand management in Ontario were examined via 2 scenarios for a commercial/institutional building with a normal summertime peak load of 300 kW between 14:00 and 18:00 during a period of high electricity demand and high electricity prices. The first scenario involved the deployment of a 150 kW on-site generator fuelled by either diesel or natural gas. The second scenario involved curtailing load by 60 kW during the same periods. Costs and benefits of both scenarios were evaluated for 3 groups: consumers, system operators and society. Benefits included electricity cost savings, deferred transmission capacity development, lower system prices for electricity, as well as environmental changes, economic development, and a greater sense of corporate social responsibility. It was noted that while significant benefits were observed for all 3 groups, they were not substantial enough to encourage action, as the savings arising from deferred generation capacity development do not accrue to individual players. The largest potential benefit was identified as lower prices, spread across all users of electricity in Ontario. It was recommended that representative bodies cooperate so that the system-wide benefits can be reaped. It was noted that if 10 municipal utilities were able to have 250 commercial or institutional customers engaged in distributed response, then a total peak demand reduction of 375 MW could be achieved, representing more than 25 per cent of Ontario's target for energy conservation. It was concluded that demand response often involves the investment of capital and new on-site procedures, which may affect reactions to various incentives. 78 refs., 10 tabs., 5 figs

Large Field Visualization with Demand-Driven Calculation

Science.gov (United States)

Moran, Patrick J.; Henze, Chris

1999-01-01

We present a system designed for the interactive definition and visualization of fields derived from large data sets: the Demand-Driven Visualizer (DDV). The system allows the user to write arbitrary expressions to define new fields, and then apply a variety of visualization techniques to the result. Expressions can include differential operators and numerous other built-in functions, ail of which are evaluated at specific field locations completely on demand. The payoff of following a demand-driven design philosophy throughout becomes particularly evident when working with large time-series data, where the costs of eager evaluation alternatives can be prohibitive.

Systemic conditions affecting the breast

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abbitt, P.L.; DeParedes, E.S.

1987-01-01

While the mammogram is most often used in the evaluation of diseases specific to the breast, manifestations of systemic conditions may also be recognized. Congenital systemic conditions such as neurofibromatosis and ectodermal dysplasia have graphic mammographic findings. The effects of diet, hormonal, and medication therapy can also have a dramatic impact on the appearance of the mammogram, as can common clinical states such as congestive heart failure or renal failure. Metastases to the breast from extramammary primaries may be seen mammographically as discrete masses, as causing diffusely increased density of the breast or as abnormal axillary adenopathy. The authors review a variety of conditions and their mammographic appearance

Robust Production Planning in Fashion Apparel Industry under Demand Uncertainty via Conditional Value at Risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abderrahim Ait-Alla

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a mathematical model for robust production planning. The model helps fashion apparel suppliers in making decisions concerning allocation of production orders to different production plants characterized by different lead times and production costs, and in proper time scheduling and sequencing of these production orders. The model aims at optimizing these decisions concerning objectives of minimal production costs and minimal tardiness. It considers several factors such as the stochastic nature of customer demand, differences in production and transport costs and transport times between production plants in different regions. Finally, the model is applied to a case study. The results of numerical computations are presented. The implications of the model results on different fashion related product types and delivery strategies, as well as the model’s limitations and potentials for expansion, are discussed. Results indicate that the production planning model using conditional value at risk (CVaR as the risk measure performs robustly and provides flexibility in decision analysis between different scenarios.

Estimation of water demand in water distribution systems using particle swarm optimization

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Letting, LK

2017-08-01

Full Text Available and an evolutionary algorithm is a potential solution to the demand estimation problem. This paper presents a detailed process simulation model for water demand estimation using the particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Nodal water demands and pipe flows...

An EPQ Model with Increasing Demand and Demand Dependent Production Rate under Trade Credit Financing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juanjuan QIN

2015-05-01

Full Text Available This paper investigates an EPQ model with the increasing demand and demand dependent production rate involving the trade credit financing policy, which is seldom reported in the literatures. The model considers the manufacturer was offered by the supplier a delayed payment time. It is assumed that the demand is a linear increasing function of the time and the production rate is proportional to the demand. That is, the production rate is also a linear function of time. This study attempts to offer a best policy for the replenishment cycle and the order quantity for the manufacturer to maximum its profit per cycle. First, the inventory model is developed under the above situation. Second, some useful theoretical results have been derived to characterize the optimal solutions for the inventory system. The Algorithm is proposed to obtain the optimal solutions of the manufacturer. Finally, the numerical examples are carried out to illustrate the theorems, and the sensitivity analysis of the optimal solutions with respect to the parameters of the inventory system is performed. Some important management insights are obtained based on the analysis.

Providing Reliability Services through Demand Response: A Prelimnary Evaluation of the Demand Response Capabilities of Alcoa Inc.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Starke, Michael R [ORNL; Kirby, Brendan J [ORNL; Kueck, John D [ORNL; Todd, Duane [Alcoa; Caulfield, Michael [Alcoa; Helms, Brian [Alcoa

2009-02-01

Demand response is the largest underutilized reliability resource in North America. Historic demand response programs have focused on reducing overall electricity consumption (increasing efficiency) and shaving peaks but have not typically been used for immediate reliability response. Many of these programs have been successful but demand response remains a limited resource. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) report, 'Assessment of Demand Response and Advanced Metering' (FERC 2006) found that only five percent of customers are on some form of demand response program. Collectively they represent an estimated 37,000 MW of response potential. These programs reduce overall energy consumption, lower green house gas emissions by allowing fossil fuel generators to operate at increased efficiency and reduce stress on the power system during periods of peak loading. As the country continues to restructure energy markets with sophisticated marginal cost models that attempt to minimize total energy costs, the ability of demand response to create meaningful shifts in the supply and demand equations is critical to creating a sustainable and balanced economic response to energy issues. Restructured energy market prices are set by the cost of the next incremental unit of energy, so that as additional generation is brought into the market, the cost for the entire market increases. The benefit of demand response is that it reduces overall demand and shifts the entire market to a lower pricing level. This can be very effective in mitigating price volatility or scarcity pricing as the power system responds to changing demand schedules, loss of large generators, or loss of transmission. As a global producer of alumina, primary aluminum, and fabricated aluminum products, Alcoa Inc., has the capability to provide demand response services through its manufacturing facilities and uniquely through its aluminum smelting facilities. For a typical aluminum smelter

Addressing Energy Demand through Demand Response. International Experiences and Practices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Shen, Bo [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ghatikar, Girish [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Ni, Chun Chun [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dudley, Junqiao [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Martin, Phil [Enernoc, Inc., Boston, MA (United States); Wikler, Greg

2012-06-01

Demand response (DR) is a load management tool which provides a cost-effective alternative to traditional supply-side solutions to address the growing demand during times of peak electrical load. According to the US Department of Energy (DOE), demand response reflects “changes in electric usage by end-use customers from their normal consumption patterns in response to changes in the price of electricity over time, or to incentive payments designed to induce lower electricity use at times of high wholesale market prices or when system reliability is jeopardized.” 1 The California Energy Commission (CEC) defines DR as “a reduction in customers’ electricity consumption over a given time interval relative to what would otherwise occur in response to a price signal, other financial incentives, or a reliability signal.” 2 This latter definition is perhaps most reflective of how DR is understood and implemented today in countries such as the US, Canada, and Australia where DR is primarily a dispatchable resource responding to signals from utilities, grid operators, and/or load aggregators (or DR providers).

Simulation modelling of central order processing system under resource sharing strategy in demand-driven garment supply chains

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, K.; Thomassey, S.; Zeng, X.

2017-10-01

In this paper we proposed a central order processing system under resource sharing strategy for demand-driven garment supply chains to increase supply chain performances. We examined this system by using simulation technology. Simulation results showed that significant improvement in various performance indicators was obtained in new collaborative model with proposed system.

Relationship between the Uncompensated Price Elasticity and the Income Elasticity of Demand under Conditions of Additive Preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Sabatelli, Lorenzo

2016-01-01

Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences), mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand.

Effective Strategy Formation Models for Inventory Management under the Conditions of Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Kosorukov, Oleg Anatolyevich; Sviridova, Olga Alexandrovna

2015-01-01

The article deals with the problem of modeling the commodity flows management of a trading company under the conditions of uncertain demand and long supply. The Author presents an analysis of modifications of diversified inventory management system with random demand, for which one can find the optimal inventory control strategies, including those…

Future Opportunities and Challenges with Using Demand Response as a Resource in Distribution System Operation and Planning Activities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cappers, Peter [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); MacDonald, Jason [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Page, Janie [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Potter, Jennifer [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Stewart, Emma [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2016-01-01

This scoping study focuses on identifying the ability for current and future demand response opportunities to contribute to distribution system management. To do so, this scoping study will identify the needs of a distribution system to operate efficiently, safely and reliably; summarize both benefits and challenges for the operation of the distribution system with high penetration levels of distributed energy resources; define a suite of services based on those changing operational needs that could be provided by resources; identify existing demand response opportunities sponsored by distribution utilities and/or aggregators of retail customers; assess the extent to which distribution system services can be provided via DR opportunities both in their current form and with alterations to their design; and provide a qualitative assessment of coordination issues that bulk power and distribution system providers of DR opportunities will need to address.

Microcogeneration in buildings with low energy demand in load sharing application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Angrisani, Giovanni; Canelli, Michele; Roselli, Carlo; Sasso, Maurizio

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The use of microcogenerator (MCHP) in buildings with low energy demand is evaluated. • The load sharing approach leads to suitable thermal and electric loads for MCHP. • Dynamic simulations are carried out considering two different climates. • A sensitivity analysis with respect to the self-consumed electricity is performed. • MCHPs with internal combustion engine perfectly match with well-insulated buildings. - Abstract: The paper investigates the introduction of a MCHP (Micro Combined Heat and Power) system in buildings with low energy demand with respect to the current building stock. A load sharing approach between a multifamily residential building and an office one is taken into account. Dynamic simulations are carried out in order to evaluate the thermo-economic performance of the analyzed system. Particular attention is given to the estimation of the electric load of the different users, as the economic profitability of a MCHP system is strongly influenced by the amount of self-consumed electricity. In order to analyze the influence of climatic conditions, two different geographical locations in Italy (Naples and Turin, having 1034 and 2617 heating degree days, respectively) are considered. The results of this study indicate that the installation of MCHP systems in buildings with low energy demand allows to increase the percentage of self-consumed electricity reducing the bidirectional electricity flow between the users and the external grid, as well as the impact on the grid itself due to the large diffusion of distributed generation systems. Moreover this study shows that the load sharing approach between users with different load profile leads to better energy, environmental and economic results with respect to a conventional system. The climatic conditions play an important role on the MCHP operational hours and hence on the thermo-economic performance of the system. The primary energy saving of the system located in Turin is

Comparison of Demand Response Performance with an EnergyPlus Model in a Low Energy Campus Building

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dudley, Junqiao Han; Black, Doug; Apte, Mike; Piette, Mary Ann; Berkeley, Pam

2010-05-14

We have studied a low energy building on a campus of the University of California. It has efficient heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, consisting of a dual-fan/dual-duct variable air volume (VAV) system. As a major building on the campus, it was included in two demand response (DR) events in the summers of 2008 and 2009. With chilled water supplied by thermal energy storage in the central plant, cooling fans played a critical role during DR events. In this paper, an EnergyPlus model of the building was developed and calibrated. We compared both whole-building and HVAC fan energy consumption with model predictions to understand why demand savings in 2009 were much lower than in 2008. We also used model simulations of the study building to assess pre-cooling, a strategy that has been shown to improve demand saving and thermal comfort in many types of building. This study indicates a properly calibrated EnergyPlus model can reasonably predict demand savings from DR events and can be useful for designing or optimizing DR strategies.

The demand function for residential heat through district heating system and its consumption benefits in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lim, Seul-Ye; Kim, Hyo-Jin; Yoo, Seung-Hoon

2016-01-01

The demand for residential heat (RH) through a district heating system (DHS) has been and will be expanded in Korea due to its better performance in energy efficiency and the abatement of greenhouse gas emissions than decentralized boilers. The purposes of this paper are two-fold. The first is to obtain the demand function for DHS-based RH in Korea and investigate the price and income elasticities of the demand employing the quarterly data covering the period 1988–2013. The short-run price and income elasticities are estimated as −0.700 and 0.918, respectively. Moreover, the long-run elasticities are −1.253 and 1.642, respectively. The second purpose is to measure the consumption benefits of DHS-based-RH employing the economic theory that they are the sum of the actual payment and consumer surplus for the consumption. Considering that the average price and estimated consumer surplus of the DHS-based RH use in 2013 are computed to be KRW 87,870 (USD 84.1) and KRW 62,764 (USD 60.1) per Gcal, the consumption benefits of the DHS-based RH are calculated to be KRW 150,634 (USD 144.2) per Gcal. This information can be beneficially utilized to conduct an economic feasibility study for a new DHS project related to RH supply. - Highlights: • Demand for residential heat (RH) from district heating system (DHS) is expanding. • We estimate the demand function for and consumption benefits of DHS-based RH. • Short-run price and income elasticities are −0.700 and 0.918, respectively. • Long-run price and income elasticities are −1.253 and 1.642, respectively. • Consumption benefits of DHS-based RH are KRW 150,634 (USD 144.2) per Gcal.

On conditional residual lifetime and conditional inactivity time of k-out-of-n systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tavangar, Mahdi; Bairamov, Ismihan

2015-01-01

In designing structures of technical systems, the reliability engineers often deal with the reliability analysis of coherent systems. Coherent system has monotone structure function and all components of the system are relevant. This paper considers some particular models of coherent systems having identical components with independent lifetimes. The main purpose of the paper is to study conditional residual lifetime of coherent system, given that at a fixed time certain number of components have failed but still there are some functioning components. Different aging and stochastic properties of variables connected with the conditional residual lifetimes of the coherent systems are obtained. An expression for the parent distribution in terms of conditional mean residual lifetime is provided. The similar result is obtained for the conditional mean inactivity time of the failed components of coherent system. The conditional mean inactivity time of failed components presents an interest in many engineering applications where the reliability of system structure is important for designing and constructing of systems. Some illustrative examples with given particular distributions are also presented. - Highlights: • Comparisons of conditional residual lifetime of k-out-of-n systems are derived. • The behavior of the coherent system is explored for IHR distributions. • The parent distribution is expressed in terms of conditional MRL and MIT. • Some illustrative examples are given to clarify the results of the paper.

An Analysis on change of household electricity demand pattern

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Na, In Gang [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea)

1999-01-01

The object of this study is to analyze the behavioral pattern change of household electricity demand. Through the cross section analysis using materials from the energy total research report, the change in income elasticity of household electricity demand was studied. In this study, two methodologies were used. Firstly, it was shown that the effect of an income variable was very significant with a positive value in simultaneous equations model using exponential equations of electrical appliances holding. Cross section income effect showed a various distribution according to the season or income level. Overall, it was calculated at 0.111 when the appliances are fixed and 0.432 when even appliances are changed. Secondly, using a choice convenient correction model, it is resulted that lambda, the choice convenient correction factor, has a positive value and is statistically significant. In 1996, income elasticity of electricity demand for households with air-conditioning was 0.305 and for households without air-conditioning was 0.172. Income elasticity of households with air-conditioning is increasing as time goes by while income elasticity of households without air-conditioning is decreasing. (author). 32 refs., 35 tabs.

Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chaturvedi, Vaibhav [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Hejazi, Mohamad I. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Clarke, Leon E. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Kyle, G. Page [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Davies, Evan [Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada); Wise, Marshall A. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Joint Global Change Research Inst., College Park, MD (United States)

2013-03-01

Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

Performance of desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy under different climatic conditions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

El-Agouz, S.A.; Kabeel, A.E.

2014-01-01

Highlights: • The performance of the hybrid air conditioning system is studied. • The influence of important operating parameters are estimated. • The ventilation, makeup and mix cycles are investigated at different climate. • The highest COP of the hybrid air conditioning system is 1.03. • The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates. - Abstract: Energy saving still and continue a major seek in our life, due to the continuous increase in energy consumptions. So, a desiccant air conditioning system with geothermal energy is conducted in the current study. The thermal analysis of air conditioning system with its different components desiccant wheel, solar collector, heat exchanger, ground heat exchanger and water spray evaporative cooler is presented. Three different air conditioning cycles are simulated in the current study for different zones like: hot-dry zone, warm-dry zone, hot-humid zone and the warm-humid zone. The results show that the desiccant air conditioning system successfully provides a better thermal comfort condition in different climates. This hybrid system significantly decreases the supplied air temperature from 12.7 to 21.7 °C at different climate zones. When ω in , air and T Reg increasing, COP decreases and the ventilation cycle provides the better COP. The highest COP value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 1.03 while the lowest value is about 0.15. The SHR of makeup cycle is higher than that ventilation cycle at warm and hot-humid zone and vice versa at warm and hot-dry zone. The highest SHR value of the desiccant air conditioning system is about 0.99 while the lowest value is about 0.2. The T sup,air , ω sup,air , COP and SHR isolines may easily be used for pre-evaluating of various cooling cycles in different climates. The hybrid system provides a human thermal comfort at different climates

Solar + Storage Synergies for Managing Commercial-Customer Demand Charges

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gagnon, P. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Govindarajan, A. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Bird, L. [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Barbose, G. L. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Darghouth, N. R. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mills, A. D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

2017-10-18

Demand charges, which are based on a customer’s maximum demand in kilowatts (kW), are a common element of electricity rate structures for commercial customers. Customer-sited solar photovoltaic (PV) systems can potentially reduce demand charges, but the level of savings is difficult to predict, given variations in demand charge designs, customer loads, and PV generation profiles. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are collaborating on a series of studies to understand how solar PV can impact demand charges. Prior studies in the series examined demand charge reductions from solar on a stand-alone basis for residential and commercial customers. Those earlier analyses found that solar, alone, has limited ability to reduce demand charges depending on the specific design of the demand charge and on the shape of the customer’s load profile. This latest analysis estimates demand charge savings from solar in commercial buildings when co-deployed with behind-the-meter storage, highlighting the complementary roles of the two technologies. The analysis is based on simulated loads, solar generation, and storage dispatch across a wide variety of building types, locations, system configurations, and demand charge designs.

Open Automated Demand Response Communications in Demand Response for Wholesale Ancillary Services

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kiliccote, Sila; Piette, Mary Ann; Ghatikar, Girish; Koch, Ed; Hennage, Dan; Hernandez, John; Chiu, Albert; Sezgen, Osman; Goodin, John

2009-11-06

The Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E) is conducting a pilot program to investigate the technical feasibility of bidding certain demand response (DR) resources into the California Independent System Operator's (CAISO) day-ahead market for ancillary services nonspinning reserve. Three facilities, a retail store, a local government office building, and a bakery, are recruited into the pilot program. For each facility, hourly demand, and load curtailment potential are forecasted two days ahead and submitted to the CAISO the day before the operation as an available resource. These DR resources are optimized against all other generation resources in the CAISO ancillary service. Each facility is equipped with four-second real time telemetry equipment to ensure resource accountability and visibility to CAISO operators. When CAISO requests DR resources, PG&E's OpenADR (Open Automated DR) communications infrastructure is utilized to deliver DR signals to the facilities energy management and control systems (EMCS). The pre-programmed DR strategies are triggered without a human in the loop. This paper describes the automated system architecture and the flow of information to trigger and monitor the performance of the DR events. We outline the DR strategies at each of the participating facilities. At one site a real time electric measurement feedback loop is implemented to assure the delivery of CAISO dispatched demand reductions. Finally, we present results from each of the facilities and discuss findings.

DEMONSTRATION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL AND DEMAND-SIDE MANAGEMENT BENEFITS OF GRID-CONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEMS

Science.gov (United States)

This study investigated the pollutant emission reduction and demand-side management potential of 16 photovoltaic (PV) systems installed across the U.S. in 1993 and 1994. The project was sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and 11 electric utilities. This ar...

Relationship between the Uncompensated Price Elasticity and the Income Elasticity of Demand under Conditions of Additive Preferences.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lorenzo Sabatelli

Full Text Available Income and price elasticity of demand quantify the responsiveness of markets to changes in income and in prices, respectively. Under the assumptions of utility maximization and preference independence (additive preferences, mathematical relationships between income elasticity values and the uncompensated own and cross price elasticity of demand are here derived using the differential approach to demand analysis. Key parameters are: the elasticity of the marginal utility of income, and the average budget share. The proposed method can be used to forecast the direct and indirect impact of price changes and of financial instruments of policy using available estimates of the income elasticity of demand.

Optimisation of a Swedish district heating system with reduced heat demand due to energy efficiency measures in residential buildings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Åberg, M.; Henning, D.

2011-01-01

The development towards more energy efficient buildings, as well as the expansion of district heating (DH) networks, is generally considered to reduce environmental impact. But the combined effect of these two progressions is more controversial. A reduced heat demand (HD) due to higher energy efficiency in buildings might hamper co-production of electricity and DH. In Sweden, co-produced electricity is normally considered to displace electricity from less efficient European condensing power plants. In this study, a potential HD reduction due to energy efficiency measures in the existing building stock in the Swedish city Linköping is calculated. The impact of HD reduction on heat and electricity production in the Linköping DH system is investigated by using the energy system optimisation model MODEST. Energy efficiency measures in buildings reduce seasonal HD variations. Model results show that HD reductions primarily decrease heat-only production. The electricity-to-heat output ratio for the system is increased for HD reductions up to 30%. Local and global CO 2 emissions are reduced. If co-produced electricity replaces electricity from coal-fired condensing power plants, a 20% HD reduction is optimal for decreasing global CO 2 emissions in the analysed DH system. - Highlights: ► A MODEST optimisation model of the Linköping district heating system is used. ► The impact of heat demand reduction on heat and electricity production is examined. ► Model results show that heat demand reductions decrease heat-only production. ► Local and global CO 2 emissions are reduced. ► The system electricity-to-heat output increases for reduced heat demand up to 30%.

Multi-modal assessment of on-road demand of voice and manual phone calling and voice navigation entry across two embedded vehicle systems

Science.gov (United States)

Mehler, Bruce; Kidd, David; Reimer, Bryan; Reagan, Ian; Dobres, Jonathan; McCartt, Anne

2016-01-01

Abstract One purpose of integrating voice interfaces into embedded vehicle systems is to reduce drivers’ visual and manual distractions with ‘infotainment’ technologies. However, there is scant research on actual benefits in production vehicles or how different interface designs affect attentional demands. Driving performance, visual engagement, and indices of workload (heart rate, skin conductance, subjective ratings) were assessed in 80 drivers randomly assigned to drive a 2013 Chevrolet Equinox or Volvo XC60. The Chevrolet MyLink system allowed completing tasks with one voice command, while the Volvo Sensus required multiple commands to navigate the menu structure. When calling a phone contact, both voice systems reduced visual demand relative to the visual–manual interfaces, with reductions for drivers in the Equinox being greater. The Equinox ‘one-shot’ voice command showed advantages during contact calling but had significantly higher error rates than Sensus during destination address entry. For both secondary tasks, neither voice interface entirely eliminated visual demand. Practitioner Summary: The findings reinforce the observation that most, if not all, automotive auditory–vocal interfaces are multi-modal interfaces in which the full range of potential demands (auditory, vocal, visual, manipulative, cognitive, tactile, etc.) need to be considered in developing optimal implementations and evaluating drivers’ interaction with the systems. Social Media: In-vehicle voice-interfaces can reduce visual demand but do not eliminate it and all types of demand need to be taken into account in a comprehensive evaluation. PMID:26269281

Multi-modal assessment of on-road demand of voice and manual phone calling and voice navigation entry across two embedded vehicle systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehler, Bruce; Kidd, David; Reimer, Bryan; Reagan, Ian; Dobres, Jonathan; McCartt, Anne

2016-03-01

One purpose of integrating voice interfaces into embedded vehicle systems is to reduce drivers' visual and manual distractions with 'infotainment' technologies. However, there is scant research on actual benefits in production vehicles or how different interface designs affect attentional demands. Driving performance, visual engagement, and indices of workload (heart rate, skin conductance, subjective ratings) were assessed in 80 drivers randomly assigned to drive a 2013 Chevrolet Equinox or Volvo XC60. The Chevrolet MyLink system allowed completing tasks with one voice command, while the Volvo Sensus required multiple commands to navigate the menu structure. When calling a phone contact, both voice systems reduced visual demand relative to the visual-manual interfaces, with reductions for drivers in the Equinox being greater. The Equinox 'one-shot' voice command showed advantages during contact calling but had significantly higher error rates than Sensus during destination address entry. For both secondary tasks, neither voice interface entirely eliminated visual demand. Practitioner Summary: The findings reinforce the observation that most, if not all, automotive auditory-vocal interfaces are multi-modal interfaces in which the full range of potential demands (auditory, vocal, visual, manipulative, cognitive, tactile, etc.) need to be considered in developing optimal implementations and evaluating drivers' interaction with the systems. Social Media: In-vehicle voice-interfaces can reduce visual demand but do not eliminate it and all types of demand need to be taken into account in a comprehensive evaluation.