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Sample records for concentrations predict disease-free

  1. Preirradiation PSA predicts biochemical disease-free survival in patients treated with postprostatectomy external beam irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crane, Christopher H.; Rich, Tyvin A.; Read, Paul W.; Sanfilippo, Nicholas J.; Gillenwater, Jay Y.; Kelly, Maria D.

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the clinical outcome and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response and to determine prognostic factors for biochemical disease-free survival in patients treated with external beam radiotherapy following radical prostatectomy without hormonal therapy. Methods and Materials: Forty-eight patients were treated after prostatectomy with radiotherapy between March, 1988 and December, 1993. Seven patients had undetectable PSA ( 2.7. Five-year actuarial biochemical disease-free survival values were 71, 48, and 0%, respectively, for the three groups. Biochemical disease-free survival was not affected by preoperative PSA level, clinical stage, Gleason's score, pathologic stage, surgical margins, presence of undetectable PSA after surgery, surgery to radiation interval, total dose, or presence of clinically suspicious local disease. Based on digital rectal exam, there were no local failures. Conclusion: Biochemical disease-free survival after postprostatectomy radiation is predicted by the PSA at the time of irradiation. Clinical local control is excellent, but distant failure remains a significant problem in this population. The addition of concomitant systemic therapy should be investigated in patients with PSA >2.7

  2. Exploring gene expression signatures for predicting disease free survival after resection of colorectal cancer liver metastases.

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    Nikol Snoeren

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: This study was designed to identify and validate gene signatures that can predict disease free survival (DFS in patients undergoing a radical resection for their colorectal liver metastases (CRLM. METHODS: Tumor gene expression profiles were collected from 119 patients undergoing surgery for their CRLM in the Paul Brousse Hospital (France and the University Medical Center Utrecht (The Netherlands. Patients were divided into high and low risk groups. A randomly selected training set was used to find predictive gene signatures. The ability of these gene signatures to predict DFS was tested in an independent validation set comprising the remaining patients. Furthermore, 5 known clinical risk scores were tested in our complete patient cohort. RESULT: No gene signature was found that significantly predicted DFS in the validation set. In contrast, three out of five clinical risk scores were able to predict DFS in our patient cohort. CONCLUSIONS: No gene signature was found that could predict DFS in patients undergoing CRLM resection. Three out of five clinical risk scores were able to predict DFS in our patient cohort. These results emphasize the need for validating risk scores in independent patient groups and suggest improved designs for future studies.

  3. Disease-free survival after hepatic resection in hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a prediction approach using artificial neural network.

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    Wen-Hsien Ho

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A database for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients who had received hepatic resection was used to develop prediction models for 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival based on a set of clinical parameters for this patient group. METHODS: The three prediction models included an artificial neural network (ANN model, a logistic regression (LR model, and a decision tree (DT model. Data for 427, 354 and 297 HCC patients with histories of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival after hepatic resection, respectively, were extracted from the HCC patient database. From each of the three groups, 80% of the cases (342, 283 and 238 cases of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival, respectively were selected to provide training data for the prediction models. The remaining 20% of cases in each group (85, 71 and 59 cases in the three respective groups were assigned to validation groups for performance comparisons of the three models. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC was used as the performance index for evaluating the three models. CONCLUSIONS: The ANN model outperformed the LR and DT models in terms of prediction accuracy. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using ANNs in medical decision support systems for predicting disease-free survival based on clinical databases in HCC patients who have received hepatic resection.

  4. Disease-Free Survival after Hepatic Resection in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: A Prediction Approach Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Wen-Hsien; Lee, King-Teh; Chen, Hong-Yaw; Ho, Te-Wei; Chiu, Herng-Chia

    2012-01-01

    Background A database for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who had received hepatic resection was used to develop prediction models for 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival based on a set of clinical parameters for this patient group. Methods The three prediction models included an artificial neural network (ANN) model, a logistic regression (LR) model, and a decision tree (DT) model. Data for 427, 354 and 297 HCC patients with histories of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival after hepatic resection, respectively, were extracted from the HCC patient database. From each of the three groups, 80% of the cases (342, 283 and 238 cases of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival, respectively) were selected to provide training data for the prediction models. The remaining 20% of cases in each group (85, 71 and 59 cases in the three respective groups) were assigned to validation groups for performance comparisons of the three models. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was used as the performance index for evaluating the three models. Conclusions The ANN model outperformed the LR and DT models in terms of prediction accuracy. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using ANNs in medical decision support systems for predicting disease-free survival based on clinical databases in HCC patients who have received hepatic resection. PMID:22235270

  5. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — model predicted concentrations. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Muñiz-Unamunzaga, M., R. Borge, G. Sarwar, B. Gantt, D. de la Paz, C....

  6. Pretreatment PSA predicts for biochemical disease free survival in patients treated with post-prostatectomy external beam irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crane, C.H.; Kelly, M.; Rich, T.A.

    1996-01-01

    Objective: To assess the outcome and determine prognostic factors for patients treated with external beam radiotherapy following radical prostatectomy. Methods and Materials: Forty-four patients were treated after prostatectomy with radiotherapy between March 1988 and October 1993. All patients were free from clinically or radiographically suspicious local or distant disease. One patient underwent neoadjuvant hormonal therapy, but no other patients received hormonal therapy prior to radiation. Pre-radiotherapy PSA and follow-up PSA data were available in all patients. Four patients had undetectable PSA ( 7, and 11% had nodal involvement. Survival was analyzed using the life table method. Actuarial freedom from biochemical (BCM) failure, defined as a rise of greater than 10% or an undetectable PSA becoming detectable, was the primary endpoint studied. Results: Fifty-nine percent of patients had a detectable PSA return to undetectable levels after XRT. The actuarial five year freedom from biochemical failure for all patients was 24%. A significant difference in BCM disease free survival was seen for patients irradiated with a pre-XRT PSA ≤2.7 versus a pre-XRT PSA >2.7 (p=0.0001). Sixty percent of the former group were BCM disease free versus 0% in the latter. Biochemical disease free survival was not affected by preoperative PSA level, presence of undetectable PSA after surgery, surgery to radiation interval, seminal vesicle invasion, clinical stage, pathologic stage, Gleasons grade, or total dose. There were no symptomatic or clinically suspicious local failures, and there were no grade 3, 4, or 5 acute or late complications. There were 69% grade 1 and 2 acute reactions and one grade 2 late complication. Conclusions: Pelvic radiotherapy for patients with a PSA of ≤2.7 after prostatectomy was effective in biochemically controlling 60% of the patients with four years median follow up. To our knowledge these data represent the longest follow-up for this patient

  7. CMAQ predicted concentration files

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — CMAQ predicted ozone. This dataset is associated with the following publication: Gantt, B., G. Sarwar, J. Xing, H. Simon, D. Schwede, B. Hutzell, R. Mathur, and A....

  8. Prediction of disease-free survival by the PET/CT radiomic signature in non-small cell lung cancer patients undergoing surgery

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    Kirienko, Margarita; Fogliata, Antonella; Sollini, Martina [Humanitas University, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Pieve Emanuele, Milan (Italy); Cozzi, Luca [Humanitas Clinical and Research Center, Radiotherapy and Radiosurgery, Rozzano, Milan (Italy); Antunovic, Lidija [Humanitas Clinical and Research Center, Nuclear Medicine, Rozzano, Milan (Italy); Lozza, Lisa [Orobix Srl, Bergamo (Italy); Voulaz, Emanuele [Humanitas Clinical and Research Center, Thoracic Surgery, Rozzano, Milan (Italy); Rossi, Alexia [Humanitas University, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Pieve Emanuele, Milan (Italy); Humanitas Clinical and Research Center, Radiology, Rozzano, Milan (Italy); Chiti, Arturo [Humanitas University, Department of Biomedical Sciences, Pieve Emanuele, Milan (Italy); Humanitas Clinical and Research Center, Nuclear Medicine, Rozzano, Milan (Italy)

    2018-02-15

    Radiomic features derived from the texture analysis of different imaging modalities e show promise in lesion characterisation, response prediction, and prognostication in lung cancer patients. The present study aimed to identify an images-based radiomic signature capable of predicting disease-free survival (DFS) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients undergoing surgery. A cohort of 295 patients was selected. Clinical parameters (age, sex, histological type, tumour grade, and stage) were recorded for all patients. The endpoint of this study was DFS. Both computed tomography (CT) and fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography (PET) images generated from the PET/CT scanner were analysed. Textural features were calculated using the LifeX package. Statistical analysis was performed using the R platform. The datasets were separated into two cohorts by random selection to perform training and validation of the statistical models. Predictors were fed into a multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression model and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve as well as the corresponding area under the curve (AUC) were computed for each model built. The Cox models that included radiomic features for the CT, the PET, and the PET+CT images resulted in an AUC of 0.75 (95%CI: 0.65-0.85), 0.68 (95%CI: 0.57-0.80), and 0.68 (95%CI: 0.58-0.74), respectively. The addition of clinical predictors to the Cox models resulted in an AUC of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.51-0.69), 0.64 (95%CI: 0.53-0.75), and 0.65 (95%CI: 0.50-0.72) for the CT, the PET, and the PET+CT images, respectively. A radiomic signature, for either CT, PET, or PET/CT images, has been identified and validated for the prediction of disease-free survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated by surgery. (orig.)

  9. Prognostic value of pre-treatment DCE-MRI parameters in predicting disease free and overall survival for breast cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pickles, Martin D.; Manton, David J.; Lowry, Martin; Turnbull, Lindsay W.

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) data, both pharmacokinetic and empirical, can predict, prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, which patients are likely to have a shorter disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) interval following surgery. Traditional prognostic parameters were also included in the survival analysis. Consequently, a comparison of the prognostic value could be made between all the parameters studied. MR examinations were conducted on a 1.5 T system in 68 patients prior to the initiation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. DCE-MRI consisted of a fast spoiled gradient echo sequence acquired over 35 phases with a mean temporal resolution of 11.3 s. Both pharmacokinetic and empirical parameters were derived from the DCE-MRI data. Kaplan-Meier survival plots were generated for each parameter and group comparisons were made utilising logrank tests. The results from the 54 patients entered into the univariate survival analysis demonstrated that traditional prognostic parameters (tumour grade, hormonal status and size), empirical parameters (maximum enhancement index, enhancement index at 30 s, area under the curve and initial slope) and adjuvant therapies demonstrated significant differences in survival intervals. Further multivariate Cox regression survival analysis revealed that empirical enhancement parameters contributed the greatest prediction of both DFS and OS in the resulting models. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that in patients who exhibit high levels of perfusion and vessel permeability pre-treatment, evidenced by elevated empirical DCE-MRI parameters, a significantly lower disease free survival and overall survival can be expected.

  10. Prognostic value of pre-treatment DCE-MRI parameters in predicting disease free and overall survival for breast cancer patients undergoing neoadjuvant chemotherapy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pickles, Martin D. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: m.pickles@hull.ac.uk; Manton, David J. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: d.j.manton@hull.ac.uk; Lowry, Martin [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: m.lowry@hull.ac.uk; Turnbull, Lindsay W. [Centre for Magnetic Resonance Investigations, Division of Cancer, Postgraduate Medical School, University of Hull, Hull Royal Infirmary, Anlaby Road, Hull, HU3 2JZ (United Kingdom)], E-mail: l.w.turnbull@hull.ac.uk

    2009-09-15

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether dynamic contrast enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) data, both pharmacokinetic and empirical, can predict, prior to neoadjuvant chemotherapy, which patients are likely to have a shorter disease free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) interval following surgery. Traditional prognostic parameters were also included in the survival analysis. Consequently, a comparison of the prognostic value could be made between all the parameters studied. MR examinations were conducted on a 1.5 T system in 68 patients prior to the initiation of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. DCE-MRI consisted of a fast spoiled gradient echo sequence acquired over 35 phases with a mean temporal resolution of 11.3 s. Both pharmacokinetic and empirical parameters were derived from the DCE-MRI data. Kaplan-Meier survival plots were generated for each parameter and group comparisons were made utilising logrank tests. The results from the 54 patients entered into the univariate survival analysis demonstrated that traditional prognostic parameters (tumour grade, hormonal status and size), empirical parameters (maximum enhancement index, enhancement index at 30 s, area under the curve and initial slope) and adjuvant therapies demonstrated significant differences in survival intervals. Further multivariate Cox regression survival analysis revealed that empirical enhancement parameters contributed the greatest prediction of both DFS and OS in the resulting models. In conclusion, this study has demonstrated that in patients who exhibit high levels of perfusion and vessel permeability pre-treatment, evidenced by elevated empirical DCE-MRI parameters, a significantly lower disease free survival and overall survival can be expected.

  11. Expression of Transketolase like gene 1 (TKTL1 predicts disease-free survival in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy

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    Hofmann Wolf-Karsten

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background For patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy is recommended as standard therapy. So far, no predictive or prognostic molecular factors for patients undergoing multimodal treatment are established. Increased angiogenesis and altered tumour metabolism as adaption to hypoxic conditions in cancers play an important role in tumour progression and metastasis. Enhanced expression of Vascular-endothelial-growth-factor-receptor (VEGF-R and Transketolase-like-1 (TKTL1 are related to hypoxic conditions in tumours. In search for potential prognostic molecular markers we investigated the expression of VEGFR-1, VEGFR-2 and TKTL1 in patients with LARC treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and cetuximab. Methods Tumour and corresponding normal tissue from pre-therapeutic biopsies of 33 patients (m: 23, f: 10; median age: 61 years with LARC treated in phase-I and II trials with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (cetuximab, irinotecan, capecitabine in combination with radiotherapy were analysed by quantitative PCR. Results Significantly higher expression of VEGFR-1/2 was found in tumour tissue in pre-treatment biopsies as well as in resected specimen after neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy compared to corresponding normal tissue. High TKTL1 expression significantly correlated with disease free survival. None of the markers had influence on early response parameters such as tumour regression grading. There was no correlation of gene expression between the investigated markers. Conclusion High TKTL-1 expression correlates with poor prognosis in terms of 3 year disease-free survival in patients with LARC treated with intensified neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy and may therefore serve as a molecular prognostic marker which should be further evaluated in randomised clinical trials.

  12. Can histopathologic assessment of circumferential margin after preoperative pelvic chemoradiotherapy for T3-T4 rectal cancer predict for 3-year disease-free survival?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mawdsley, Suzannah; Glynne-Jones, Rob; Grainger, Juliet; Richman, Paul; Makris, Andreas; Harrison, Mark; Ashford, Richard; Harrison, Richard A.; Osborne, Melanie; Livingstone, Jeremy I.; MacDonald, Peter; Mitchell, Ian C.; Meyrick-Thomas, John; Northover, John; Windsor, Alastair; Novell, Richard; Wallace, Marina

    2005-01-01

    Purpose: This study set out to determine the impact of a positive circumferential resection margin (CRM) (R1-R2) and pathologic downstaging on local recurrence and survival in patients with borderline resectable or unresectable rectal adenocarcinoma treated with neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods and Materials: A total of 150 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer were treated with long-course neoadjuvant CRT using low-dose folinic acid and 5-fluorouracil. CRT was followed 6-12 weeks later by surgical excision. The CRM rate and incidence, site, and pattern of local and systemic recurrences were recorded. The median follow-up was 25 months. Results: The overall median survival was 37 months, with a 5-year overall survival rate of 34%. Of the 150 patients, 122 underwent curative resection; 12% had a complete pathologic response, and downstaging to pT1-T2 occurred in an additional 16%. A negative CRM (R0) was achieved in 65% overall (98 of 150). Local recurrence occurred in 10% of those with R0 resection and 62% of those with R1-R2 resections. Distant metastases occurred in 29% of those with R0 resections and 75% of those with R1-R2 resections. The 3-year disease-free and 3-year overall survival rate was 9% and 25% and 52% and 64%, respectively, for patients with and without a histologically positive CRM. Conclusion: After 5-fluorouracil-based CRT, a positive CRM predicted for a high risk of subsequent local recurrence and a 3-year disease-free survival rate of only 9%. For this reason, the CRM should be considered a major prognostic factor and should be validated in future trials as an early alternative clinical endpoint

  13. Combined heavy smoking and drinking predicts overall but not disease-free survival after curative resection of locoregional esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

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    Sun P

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Peng Sun,1,2,* Cui Chen,3,* Fei Zhang,1,2,* Hang Yang,1,2 Xi-Wen Bi,1,2 Xin An,1,2 Feng-Hua Wang,1,2 Wen-Qi Jiang1,2 1State Key Laboratory of Oncology in South China, Collaborative Innovation Center for Cancer Medicine, 2Department of Medical Oncology, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, 3Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong Province, People’s Republic of China *These authors contributed equally to this work Introduction: The prognostic impact of smoking and drinking on esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC was scarcely discussed. We investigated the prognostic value of smoking and drinking and their relationships with clinicopathological characteristics in a large cohort of patients with locoregional ESCC.Patients and methods: We retrospectively analyzed 488 patients who underwent curative treatment at a single institution between January 2007 and December 2008. A chi-square test was used to evaluate the relationships between smoking and drinking and clinicopathological variables, the Kaplan–Meier method was used for 5-year overall survival (OS and disease-free survival, and Cox proportional hazards models were applied for univariate and multivariate analyses of variables with respect to OS and disease-free survival.Results: Heavy smokers were more likely to have advanced Tumor-Node-Metastases (TNM stage and higher neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio at diagnosis (P<0.05. Drinkers were more likely to have advanced TNM stage, to present with a larger tumor, and to undergo multidisciplinary treatment (P<0.05. For patients who used neither heavy tobacco nor alcohol, used either tobacco or alcohol, and used both, the 5-year OS rates and OS times were 57.4%, 46.4%, and 39.1% (P<0.05 and not reached, 55.2 months, and 41.2 months (P<0.05, respectively. On multivariate analysis, patients who both heavily smoked and drank had 1.392 times the risk of dying during follow-up compared with

  14. Immune Biomarkers Predictive for Disease-Free Survival with Adjuvant Sunitinib in High-Risk Locoregional Renal Cell Carcinoma: From Randomized Phase III S-TRAC Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    George, Daniel J; Martini, Jean-François; Staehler, Michael; Motzer, Robert J; Magheli, Ahmed; Escudier, Bernard; Gerletti, Paola; Li, Sherry; Casey, Michelle; Laguerre, Brigitte; Pandha, Hardev S; Pantuck, Allan J; Patel, Anup; Lechuga, Maria J; Ravaud, Alain

    2018-04-01

    Purpose: Adjuvant sunitinib therapy compared with placebo prolonged disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with locoregional high-risk renal cell carcinoma (RCC) in the S-TRAC trial (ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT00375674). A prospectively designed exploratory analysis of tissue biomarkers was conducted to identify predictors of treatment benefit. Experimental Design: Tissue blocks were used for immunohistochemistry (IHC) staining of programmed cell death ligand 1 (PD-L1), CD4, CD8, and CD68. DFS was compared between < versus ≥ median IHC parameter using the Kaplan-Meier method. For biomarkers with predictive potential, receiver operating characteristics curves were generated. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar in patients with ( n = 191) and without ( n = 419) IHC analysis. Among patients with IHC, longer DFS was observed in patients with tumor CD8 + T-cell density ≥ versus < median [median (95% CI), not reached (6.83-not reached) versus 3.47 years (1.73-not reached); hazard ratio (HR) 0.40 (95% CI, 0.20-0.81); P = 0.009] treated with sunitinib ( n = 101), but not with placebo ( n = 90). The sensitivity and specificity for CD8 + T-cell density in predicting DFS were 0.604 and 0.658, respectively. Shorter DFS was observed in placebo-treated patients with PD-L1 + versus PD-L1 - tumors (HR 1.75; P = 0.103). Among all patients with PD-L1 + tumors, DFS was numerically longer with sunitinib versus placebo (HR 0.58; P = 0.175). Conclusions: Greater CD8 + T-cell density in tumor tissue was associated with longer DFS with sunitinib but not placebo, suggesting predictive treatment effect utility. Further independent cohort validation studies are warranted. The prognostic value of PD-L1 expression in primary tumors from patients with high-risk nonmetastatic RCC should also be further explored. Clin Cancer Res; 24(7); 1554-61. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

  15. High levels of microRNA-21 in the stroma of colorectal cancers predict short disease-free survival in stage II colon cancer patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Boye Schnack; Jørgensen, Stine; Fog, Jacob Ulrik

    2011-01-01

    Approximately 25% of all patients with stage II colorectal cancer will experience recurrent disease and subsequently die within 5 years. MicroRNA-21 (miR-21) is upregulated in several cancer types and has been associated with survival in colon cancer. In the present study we developed a robust...... in situ hybridization assay using high-affinity Locked Nucleic Acid (LNA) probes that specifically detect miR-21 in formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue samples. The expression of miR-21 was analyzed by in situ hybridization on 130 stage II colon and 67 stage II rectal cancer specimens. The mi...... relative to the nuclear density (TBR) obtained using a red nuclear stain. High TBR (and TB) estimates of miR-21 expression correlated significantly with shorter disease-free survival (p = 0.004, HR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.06-1.55) in the stage II colon cancer patient group, whereas no significant correlation...

  16. Preoperative magnetic resonance imaging assessment of circumferential resection margin predicts disease-free survival and local recurrence: 5-year follow-up results of the MERCURY study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taylor, Fiona G M; Quirke, Philip; Heald, Richard J; Moran, Brendan J; Blomqvist, Lennart; Swift, Ian R; Sebag-Montefiore, David; Tekkis, Paris; Brown, Gina

    2014-01-01

    The prognostic relevance of preoperative high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) assessment of circumferential resection margin (CRM) involvement is unknown. This follow-up study of 374 patients with rectal cancer reports the relationship between preoperative MRI assessment of CRM staging, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM stage, and clinical variables with overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), and time to local recurrence (LR). Patients underwent protocol high-resolution pelvic MRI. Tumor distance to the mesorectal fascia of ≤ 1 mm was recorded as an MRI-involved CRM. A Cox proportional hazards model was used in multivariate analysis to determine the relationship of MRI assessment of CRM to survivorship after adjusting for preoperative covariates. Surviving patients were followed for a median of 62 months. The 5-year OS was 62.2% in patients with MRI-clear CRM compared with 42.2% in patients with MRI-involved CRM with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.97 (95% CI, 1.27 to 3.04; P < .01). The 5-year DFS was 67.2% (95% CI, 61.4% to 73%) for MRI-clear CRM compared with 47.3% (95% CI, 33.7% to 60.9%) for MRI-involved CRM with an HR of 1.65 (95% CI, 1.01 to 2.69; P < .05). Local recurrence HR for MRI-involved CRM was 3.50 (95% CI, 1.53 to 8.00; P < .05). MRI-involved CRM was the only preoperative staging parameter that remained significant for OS, DFS, and LR on multivariate analysis. High-resolution MRI preoperative assessment of CRM status is superior to AJCC TNM-based criteria for assessing risk of LR, DFS, and OS. Furthermore, MRI CRM involvement is significantly associated with distant metastatic disease; therefore, colorectal cancer teams could intensify treatment and follow-up accordingly to improve survival outcomes.

  17. Prediction Methods for Blood Glucose Concentration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    “Recent Results on Glucose–Insulin Predictions by Means of a State Observer for Time-Delay Systems” by Pasquale Palumbo et al. introduces a prediction model which in real time predicts the insulin concentration in blood which in turn is used in a control system. The method is tested in simulation...... EEG signals to predict upcoming hypoglycemic situations in real-time by employing artificial neural networks. The results of a 30-day long clinical study with the implanted device and the developed algorithm are presented. The chapter “Meta-Learning Based Blood Glucose Predictor for Diabetic......, but the insulin amount is chosen using factors that account for this expectation. The increasing availability of more accurate continuous blood glucose measurement (CGM) systems is attracting much interest to the possibilities of explicit prediction of future BG values. Against this background, in 2014 a two...

  18. Prediction Methods for Blood Glucose Concentration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    -day workshop on the design, use and evaluation of prediction methods for blood glucose concentration was held at the Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria. One intention of the workshop was to bring together experts working in various fields on the same topic, in order to shed light from different angles...... discussions which allowed to receive direct feedback from the point of view of different disciplines. This book is based on the contributions of that workshop and is intended to convey an overview of the different aspects involved in the prediction. The individual chapters are based on the presentations given...... in the process of writing this book: All authors for their individual contributions, all reviewers of the book chapters, Daniela Hummer for the entire organization of the workshop, Boris Tasevski for helping with the typesetting, Florian Reiterer for his help editing the book, as well as Oliver Jackson and Karin...

  19. Early prediction of therapy response and disease free survival after induction chemotherapy in stage III non-small cell lung cancer by FDG-PET: Correlation between tumor FDG-metabolism and morphometric tumor response

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baum, R.P.; Schmuecking, M.; Niesen, A.; Przetak, C.; Griesinger, F.

    2002-01-01

    follow up of 11 months for the whole population, DFS is statistically significantly different in the PET-mCR vs. the PET-non-mCR group (p=0.025, log-rank-test, Kaplan-Meier-plot). Conclusions: In NSCLC, morphometric tumor response after induction chemotherapy correlates strongly with metabolic remission as measured by FDG-PET. FDG-PET appears to be a highly promising, non-invasive diagnostic tool to predict pathologic response and disease free survival

  20. Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging of thymoma: ability of the Apparent Diffusion Coefficient in predicting the World Health Organization (WHO) classification and the Masaoka-Koga staging system and its prognostic significance on disease-free survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Priola, Adriano Massimiliano; Priola, Sandro Massimo; Gned, Dario; Ducco, Lorena; Veltri, Andrea; Giraudo, Maria Teresa; Fornari, Alessandro; Ferrero, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    To evaluate the usefulness of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance for distinguishing thymomas according to WHO and Masaoka-Koga classifications and in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) by using the apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC). Forty-one patients were grouped based on WHO (low-risk vs. high-risk) and Masaoka-Koga (early vs. advanced) classifications. For prognosis, seven patients with recurrence at follow-up were grouped separately from healthy subjects. Differences on ADC levels between groups were tested using Student-t testing. Logistic regression models and areas under the ROC curve (AUROC) were estimated. Mean ADC values were different between groups of WHO (low-risk = 1.58 ± 0.20 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; high-risk = 1.21 ± 0.23 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; p < 0.0001) and Masaoka-Koga (early = 1.43 ± 0.26 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; advanced = 1.31 ± 0.31 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; p = 0.016) classifications. Mean ADC of type-B3 (1.05 ± 0.17 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec) was lower than type-B2 (1.32 ± 0.20 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; p = 0.023). AUROC in discriminating groups was 0.864 for WHO classification (cut-point = 1.309 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; accuracy = 78.1 %) and 0.730 for Masaoka-Koga classification (cut-point = 1.243 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec; accuracy = 73.2 %). Logistic regression models and two-way ANOVA were significant for WHO classification (odds ratio[OR] = 0.93, p = 0.007; p < 0.001), but not for Masaoka-Koga classification (OR = 0.98, p = 0.31; p = 0.38). ADC levels were significantly associated with DFS recurrence rate being higher for patients with ADC ≤ 1.299 x 10 -3 mm 2 /sec (p = 0.001; AUROC, 0.834; accuracy = 78.0 %). ADC helps to differentiate high-risk from low-risk thymomas and discriminates the more aggressive type-B3. Primary tumour ADC is a prognostic indicator of recurrence. (orig.)

  1. PREDICTION OF STRESS CONCENTRATION FACTORS IN

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ES OBE

    consider the effect of brace spacing on strengths of tubular K joints without consideration of same effect on square section K Joints. This lack of studies design strengths of gapped square section K joints makes availability of information on stress concentration factors in same joints scarce. However, information on 'Hot Spot' ...

  2. Biochemical disease-free survival following I-125 prostate implantation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beyer, David C; Priestley, Joseph B

    1995-07-01

    Purpose/Objective: To assess the five-year clinical and biochemical results of ultrasound-guided permanent I-125 brachytherapy in early prostate cancer. Biochemical disease-free survival (BDFS) is reported, using PSA follow-up and is compared to the surgical and radiation therapy literature. Materials and Methods: From 12/88 through 12/93, ultrasound-guided brachytherapy was preplanned with I-125 and delivered 16,000 cGy as the sole treatment in 499 patients. All were clinically staged as T1 or T2 - N0M0 adenocarcinoma of the prostate. Within the first year, 19 patients were lost to follow-up and have been excluded from further study. The remaining 480 patients form the basis of this report. Clinical status and PSA values were systematically recorded before and after treatment. Results: With a median follow-up of 35 months (3-70) the actuarial clinical local control is 83%. Both stage and grade are shown to predict for this endpoint. Actuarial BDFS is also correlated with stage, grade, and PSA at presentation. Biochemical disease-free survival at five years is 94% for T1, 70% for unilateral T2, and 34% for T2c tumors. Grade is also predictive, ranging from 85% in low-grade tumors to 30% in high-grade tumors. In a multivariate analysis, the pretreatment PSA is most highly correlated (p < 0.0001). Patients with a normal pretreatment PSA enjoyed 93% BDFS, while those presenting with PSA > 10 had a BDFS of 40%. Complications have been few, with severe urinary urgency or dysuria in 4% and both incontinence and proctitis seen in 1%. Conclusion: While biochemical disease-free survival reports in the literature are immature and have short follow-up, our data compares favorably with studies following radical prostatectomy or radiation therapy. Further follow-up of this cohort is required. The complication rate is low and patient acceptance excellent. Permanent implantation of I-125 as the sole treatment for early prostate cancer is a viable alternative for patients with

  3. Biochemical disease-free survival following I-125 prostate implantation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beyer, David C.; Priestley, Joseph B.

    1995-01-01

    Purpose/Objective: To assess the five-year clinical and biochemical results of ultrasound-guided permanent I-125 brachytherapy in early prostate cancer. Biochemical disease-free survival (BDFS) is reported, using PSA follow-up and is compared to the surgical and radiation therapy literature. Materials and Methods: From 12/88 through 12/93, ultrasound-guided brachytherapy was preplanned with I-125 and delivered 16,000 cGy as the sole treatment in 499 patients. All were clinically staged as T1 or T2 - N0M0 adenocarcinoma of the prostate. Within the first year, 19 patients were lost to follow-up and have been excluded from further study. The remaining 480 patients form the basis of this report. Clinical status and PSA values were systematically recorded before and after treatment. Results: With a median follow-up of 35 months (3-70) the actuarial clinical local control is 83%. Both stage and grade are shown to predict for this endpoint. Actuarial BDFS is also correlated with stage, grade, and PSA at presentation. Biochemical disease-free survival at five years is 94% for T1, 70% for unilateral T2, and 34% for T2c tumors. Grade is also predictive, ranging from 85% in low-grade tumors to 30% in high-grade tumors. In a multivariate analysis, the pretreatment PSA is most highly correlated (p 10 had a BDFS of 40%. Complications have been few, with severe urinary urgency or dysuria in 4% and both incontinence and proctitis seen in 1%. Conclusion: While biochemical disease-free survival reports in the literature are immature and have short follow-up, our data compares favorably with studies following radical prostatectomy or radiation therapy. Further follow-up of this cohort is required. The complication rate is low and patient acceptance excellent. Permanent implantation of I-125 as the sole treatment for early prostate cancer is a viable alternative for patients with early stage and low- to moderate-grade cancers. The PSA provides significant prognostic information and

  4. Comparison of observed and predicted Kr-85 air concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yildiran, M.; Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    A computer code, ANEMOS has been written to estimate concentrations in air and ground deposition rates for Atmospheric Nuclides Emitted from Multiple Operation Sources. This code uses a modified Gaussian plume equation. Output from ANEMOS includes annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates of dispersed radionuclides and daughters. To use the environmental transport model properly, some estimate of the models predictive accuracy must be obtained. To validate the ANEMOS model, one year of weekly average Kr-85 concentrations observed at 13 stations located 28 to 144 km distant from continuous point source at the Savannah River Plant have been used. There was a general tendency for the model to underpredict the observed air concentrations slightly. Pearson's correlation between pairs of logarithms of observed and predicted annual-average values was r=0.84. The monthly results tend to show more scatter than do either the seasonal or the annual comparisons. (orig.)

  5. Comparison of observed and predicted Kr-85 air concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yildiran, M.; Miller, C.W.

    1984-01-01

    A computer code, ANEMOS has been written to estimate concentrations in air and ground deposition rates for Atmospheric Nuclides Emitted from Multiple Operation Sources. This code uses a modified Gaussian plum equation. Output from ANEMOS includes annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates of dispersed radionuclides and daughters. To use the environmental transport model properly, some estimate of the models predictive accuracy must be obtained. To validate the ANEMOS model, one year of weekly average Kr-85 concentrations observed at 13 stations located 28 to 144 km distant from continuous point source at the Savannah River Plant (SRP), Aiken, South Carolina, have been used. There was a general tendency for the model to underpredict the observed air concentrations slightly. Pearsons's correlation between pairs of logarithms of observed and predicted annual-average values was r = 0.84. The monthly results tend to show more scatter than do either the seasonal or the annual comparisons. 18 references, 3 figures, 3 tables

  6. Predicting radon/radon daughter concentrations in underground mines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leach, V.A.

    1984-01-01

    A detailed description of a computer programme is outlined for the calculation of radon/radon daughter concentrations in air. This computer model is used to predict the radon/radon daughter concentrations in Working Level (WL) at the workplace and at the various junctions at either end of the branches in a typical ventilation network proposed for the Jabiluka mine in the Northern Territory

  7. Development of system on predicting uranium concentration from pregnant solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi Weiping

    2004-01-01

    Uranium concentration from pregnant solution is primary index of process for in-situ leaching of uranium, and the suitable method with which to predicate this index and effective means to solve it with were continuously studied hard. SPUC-system on predicting uranium concentration based on GM model of gray system theory is developed, and the mathematical model, constitution, function and theory foundation of this system are introduced. (authors)

  8. Validation of predicted exponential concentration profiles of chemicals in soils

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hollander, Anne; Baijens, Iris; Ragas, Ad; Huijbregts, Mark; Meent, Dik van de

    2007-01-01

    Multimedia mass balance models assume well-mixed homogeneous compartments. Particularly for soils, this does not correspond to reality, which results in potentially large uncertainties in estimates of transport fluxes from soils. A theoretically expected exponential decrease model of chemical concentrations with depth has been proposed, but hardly tested against empirical data. In this paper, we explored the correspondence between theoretically predicted soil concentration profiles and 84 field measured profiles. In most cases, chemical concentrations in soils appear to decline exponentially with depth, and values for the chemical specific soil penetration depth (d p ) are predicted within one order of magnitude. Over all, the reliability of multimedia models will improve when they account for depth-dependent soil concentrations, so we recommend to take into account the described theoretical exponential decrease model of chemical concentrations with depth in chemical fate studies. In this model the d p -values should estimated be either based on local conditions or on a fixed d p -value, which we recommend to be 10 cm for chemicals with a log K ow > 3. - Multimedia mass model predictions will improve when taking into account depth dependent soil concentrations

  9. Comparison of predicted and measured variations of indoor radon concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arvela, H.; Voutilainen, A.; Maekelaeinen, I.; Castren, O.; Winqvist, K.

    1988-01-01

    Prediction of the variations of indoor radon concentration were calculated using a model relating indoor radon concentration to radon entry rate, air infiltration and meteorological factors. These calculated variations have been compared with seasonal variations of 33 houses during 1-4 years, with winter-summer concentration ratios of 300 houses and the measured diurnal variation. In houses with a slab in ground contact the measured seasonal variations are quite often in agreement with variations predicted for nearly pure pressure difference driven flow. The contribution of a diffusion source is significant in houses with large porous concrete walls against the ground. Air flow due to seasonally variable thermal convection within eskers strongly affects the seasonal variations within houses located thereon. Measured and predicted winter-summer concentration ratios demonstrate that, on average, the ratio is a function of radon concentration. The ratio increases with increasing winter concentration. According to the model the diurnal maximum caused by a pressure difference driven flow occurs in the morning, a finding which is in agreement with the measurements. The model presented can be used for differentiating between factors affecting radon entry into houses. (author)

  10. Prediction of toxic metals concentration using artificial intelligence techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gholami, R.; Kamkar-Rouhani, A.; Doulati Ardejani, F.; Maleki, Sh.

    2011-12-01

    Groundwater and soil pollution are noted to be the worst environmental problem related to the mining industry because of the pyrite oxidation, and hence acid mine drainage generation, release and transport of the toxic metals. The aim of this paper is to predict the concentration of Ni and Fe using a robust algorithm named support vector machine (SVM). Comparison of the obtained results of SVM with those of the back-propagation neural network (BPNN) indicates that the SVM can be regarded as a proper algorithm for the prediction of toxic metals concentration due to its relative high correlation coefficient and the associated running time. As a matter of fact, the SVM method has provided a better prediction of the toxic metals Fe and Ni and resulted the running time faster compared with that of the BPNN.

  11. Flow-covariate prediction of stream pesticide concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosquin, Paul L; Aldworth, Jeremy; Chen, Wenlin

    2018-01-01

    Potential peak functions (e.g., maximum rolling averages over a given duration) of annual pesticide concentrations in the aquatic environment are important exposure parameters (or target quantities) for ecological risk assessments. These target quantities require accurate concentration estimates on nonsampled days in a monitoring program. We examined stream flow as a covariate via universal kriging to improve predictions of maximum m-day (m = 1, 7, 14, 30, 60) rolling averages and the 95th percentiles of atrazine concentration in streams where data were collected every 7 or 14 d. The universal kriging predictions were evaluated against the target quantities calculated directly from the daily (or near daily) measured atrazine concentration at 32 sites (89 site-yr) as part of the Atrazine Ecological Monitoring Program in the US corn belt region (2008-2013) and 4 sites (62 site-yr) in Ohio by the National Center for Water Quality Research (1993-2008). Because stream flow data are strongly skewed to the right, 3 transformations of the flow covariate were considered: log transformation, short-term flow anomaly, and normalized Box-Cox transformation. The normalized Box-Cox transformation resulted in predictions of the target quantities that were comparable to those obtained from log-linear interpolation (i.e., linear interpolation on the log scale) for 7-d sampling. However, the predictions appeared to be negatively affected by variability in regression coefficient estimates across different sample realizations of the concentration time series. Therefore, revised models incorporating seasonal covariates and partially or fully constrained regression parameters were investigated, and they were found to provide much improved predictions in comparison with those from log-linear interpolation for all rolling average measures. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:260-273. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  12. Predictability Analysis of PM10 Concentrations in Budapest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ferenczi, Zita

    2013-04-01

    Climate, weather and air quality may have harmful effects on human health and environment. Over the past few hundred years we had to face the changes in climate in parallel with the changes in air quality. These observed changes in climate, weather and air quality continuously interact with each other: pollutants are changing the climate, thus changing the weather, but climate also has impacts on air quality. The increasing number of extreme weather situations may be a result of climate change, which could create favourable conditions for rising of pollutant concentrations. Air quality in Budapest is determined by domestic and traffic emissions combined with the meteorological conditions. In some cases, the effect of long-range transport could also be essential. While the time variability of the industrial and traffic emissions is not significant, the domestic emissions increase in winter season. In recent years, PM10 episodes have caused the most critical air quality problems in Budapest, especially in winter. In Budapest, an air quality network of 11 stations detects the concentration values of different pollutants hourly. The Hungarian Meteorological Service has developed an air quality prediction model system for the area of Budapest. The system forecasts the concentration of air pollutants (PM10, NO2, SO2 and O3) for two days in advance. In this work we used meteorological parameters and PM10 data detected by the stations of the air quality network, as well as the forecasted PM10 values of the air quality prediction model system. In this work we present the evaluation of PM10 predictions in the last two years and the most important meteorological parameters affecting PM10 concentration. The results of this analysis determine the effect of the meteorological parameters and the emission of aerosol particles on the PM10 concentration values as well as the limits of this prediction system.

  13. Development of Indoor Air Pollution Concentration Prediction by Geospatial Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adyati Pradini Yudison

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available People living near busy roads are potentially exposed to traffic-induced air pollutants. The pollutants may intrude into the indoor environment, causing health risks to the occupants. Prediction of pollutant exposure therefore is of great importance for impact assessment and policy making related to environmentally sustainable transport. This study involved the selection of spatial interpolation methods that can be used for prediction of indoor air quality based on outdoor pollutant mapping without indoor measurement data. The research was undertaken in the densely populated area of Karees, Bandung, Indonesia. The air pollutant NO2 was monitored in this area as a preliminary study. Nitrogen dioxide concentrations were measured by passive diffusion tube. Outdoor NO2 concentrations were measured at 94 locations, consisting of 30 roadside and 64 outdoor locations. Residential indoor NO2 concentrations were measured at 64 locations. To obtain a spatially continuous air quality map, the spatial interpolation methods of inverse distance weighting (IDW and Kriging were applied. Selection of interpolation method was done based on the smallest root mean square error (RMSE and standard deviation (SD. The most appropriate interpolation method for outdoor NO2 concentration mapping was Kriging with an SD value of 5.45 µg/m3 and an RMSE value of 5.45 µg/m3, while for indoor NO2 concentration mapping the IDW was best fitted with an RMSE value of 5.92 µg/m3 and an SD value of 5.92 µg/m3.

  14. Comparing predicted estrogen concentrations with measurements in US waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostich, Mitch; Flick, Robert; Martinson, John

    2013-01-01

    The range of exposure rates to the steroidal estrogens estrone (E1), beta-estradiol (E2), estriol (E3), and ethinyl estradiol (EE2) in the aquatic environment was investigated by modeling estrogen introduction via municipal wastewater from sewage plants across the US. Model predictions were compared to published measured concentrations. Predictions were congruent with most of the measurements, but a few measurements of E2 and EE2 exceed those that would be expected from the model, despite very conservative model assumptions of no degradation or in-stream dilution. Although some extreme measurements for EE2 may reflect analytical artifacts, remaining data suggest concentrations of E2 and EE2 may reach twice the 99th percentile predicted from the model. The model and bulk of the measurement data both suggest that cumulative exposure rates to humans are consistently low relative to effect levels, but also suggest that fish exposures to E1, E2, and EE2 sometimes substantially exceed chronic no-effect levels. -- Highlights: •Conservatively modeled steroidal estrogen concentrations in ambient water. •Found reasonable agreement between model and published measurements. •Model and measurements agree that risks to humans are remote. •Model and measurements agree significant questions remain about risk to fish. •Need better understanding of temporal variations and their impact on fish. -- Our model and published measurements for estrogens suggest aquatic exposure rates for humans are below potential effect levels, but fish exposure sometimes exceeds published no-effect levels

  15. A prediction model for assessing residential radon concentration in Switzerland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hauri, Dimitri D.; Huss, Anke; Zimmermann, Frank; Kuehni, Claudia E.; Röösli, Martin

    2012-01-01

    Indoor radon is regularly measured in Switzerland. However, a nationwide model to predict residential radon levels has not been developed. The aim of this study was to develop a prediction model to assess indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland. The model was based on 44,631 measurements from the nationwide Swiss radon database collected between 1994 and 2004. Of these, 80% randomly selected measurements were used for model development and the remaining 20% for an independent model validation. A multivariable log-linear regression model was fitted and relevant predictors selected according to evidence from the literature, the adjusted R², the Akaike's information criterion (AIC), and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). The prediction model was evaluated by calculating Spearman rank correlation between measured and predicted values. Additionally, the predicted values were categorised into three categories (50th, 50th–90th and 90th percentile) and compared with measured categories using a weighted Kappa statistic. The most relevant predictors for indoor radon levels were tectonic units and year of construction of the building, followed by soil texture, degree of urbanisation, floor of the building where the measurement was taken and housing type (P-values <0.001 for all). Mean predicted radon values (geometric mean) were 66 Bq/m³ (interquartile range 40–111 Bq/m³) in the lowest exposure category, 126 Bq/m³ (69–215 Bq/m³) in the medium category, and 219 Bq/m³ (108–427 Bq/m³) in the highest category. Spearman correlation between predictions and measurements was 0.45 (95%-CI: 0.44; 0.46) for the development dataset and 0.44 (95%-CI: 0.42; 0.46) for the validation dataset. Kappa coefficients were 0.31 for the development and 0.30 for the validation dataset, respectively. The model explained 20% overall variability (adjusted R²). In conclusion, this residential radon prediction model, based on a large number of measurements, was demonstrated to be

  16. Data Based Prediction of Blood Glucose Concentrations Using Evolutionary Methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidalgo, J Ignacio; Colmenar, J Manuel; Kronberger, Gabriel; Winkler, Stephan M; Garnica, Oscar; Lanchares, Juan

    2017-08-08

    Predicting glucose values on the basis of insulin and food intakes is a difficult task that people with diabetes need to do daily. This is necessary as it is important to maintain glucose levels at appropriate values to avoid not only short-term, but also long-term complications of the illness. Artificial intelligence in general and machine learning techniques in particular have already lead to promising results in modeling and predicting glucose concentrations. In this work, several machine learning techniques are used for the modeling and prediction of glucose concentrations using as inputs the values measured by a continuous monitoring glucose system as well as also previous and estimated future carbohydrate intakes and insulin injections. In particular, we use the following four techniques: genetic programming, random forests, k-nearest neighbors, and grammatical evolution. We propose two new enhanced modeling algorithms for glucose prediction, namely (i) a variant of grammatical evolution which uses an optimized grammar, and (ii) a variant of tree-based genetic programming which uses a three-compartment model for carbohydrate and insulin dynamics. The predictors were trained and tested using data of ten patients from a public hospital in Spain. We analyze our experimental results using the Clarke error grid metric and see that 90% of the forecasts are correct (i.e., Clarke error categories A and B), but still even the best methods produce 5 to 10% of serious errors (category D) and approximately 0.5% of very serious errors (category E). We also propose an enhanced genetic programming algorithm that incorporates a three-compartment model into symbolic regression models to create smoothed time series of the original carbohydrate and insulin time series.

  17. Airborne Precursors Predict Maternal Serum Perfluoroalkyl Acid Concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makey, Colleen M; Webster, Thomas F; Martin, Jonathan W; Shoeib, Mahiba; Harner, Tom; Dix-Cooper, Linda; Webster, Glenys M

    2017-07-05

    Human exposure to persistent perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), including perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorononanoic acid (PFNA), and perfluorooctanesulfonate (PFOS), can occur directly from contaminated food, water, air, and dust. However, precursors to PFAAs (PreFAAs), such as dipolyfluoroalkyl phosphates (diPAPs), fluorotelomer alcohols (FTOHs), perfluorooctyl sulfonamides (FOSAs), and sulfonamidoethanols (FOSEs), which can be biotransformed to PFAAs, may also be a source of exposure. PFAAs were analyzed in 50 maternal sera samples collected in 2007-2008 from participants in Vancouver, Canada, while PFAAs and PreFAAs were measured in matching samples of residential bedroom air collected by passive sampler and in sieved vacuum dust (<150 μm). Concentrations of PreFAAs were higher than for PFAAs in air and dust. Positive associations were discovered between airborne 10:2 FTOH and serum PFOA and PFNA and between airborne MeFOSE and serum PFOS. On average, serum PFOS concentrations were 2.3 ng/mL (95%CI: 0.40, 4.3) higher in participants with airborne MeFOSE concentrations in the highest tertile relative to the lowest tertile. Among all PFAAs, only PFNA in air and vacuum dust predicted serum PFNA. Results suggest that airborne PFAA precursors were a source of PFOA, PFNA, and PFOS exposure in this population.

  18. Predictive modelling of fatigue failure in concentrated lubricated contacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evans, H P; Snidle, R W; Sharif, K J; Bryant, M J

    2012-01-01

    Reducing frictional losses in response to the energy agenda will require use of less viscous lubricants causing hydrodynamically-lubricated bearings to operate with thinner films leading to "mixed lubrication" conditions in which a degree of direct interaction occurs between surfaces protected only by boundary tribofilms. The paper considers the consequences of thinner films and mixed lubrication for concentrated contacts such as those occurring between the teeth of power transmission gears and in rolling element bearings. Surface fatigue in gears remains a serious problem in demanding applications, and its solution will become more pressing with the tendency towards thinner oils. The particular form of failure examined here is micropitting, which is identified as a fatigue phenomenon occurring at the scale of the surface roughness asperities. It has emerged recently as a systemic difficulty in the operation of large scale wind turbines where it occurs in both power transmission gears and their support bearings. Predictive physical modelling of these contacts requires a transient mixed lubrication analysis for conditions in which the predicted lubricant film thickness is of the same order or significantly less than the height of surface roughness features. Numerical solvers have therefore been developed which are able to deal with situations in which transient solid contacts occur between surface asperity features under realistic engineering conditions. Results of the analysis, which reveal the detailed time-varying behaviour of pressure and film clearance, have been used to predict fatigue and damage accumulation at the scale of surface asperity features with the aim of improving understanding of the micropitting phenomenon. The possible consequences on fatigue of residual stress fields resulting from plastic deformation of surface asperities is also considered.

  19. Dimethylglycine accumulates in uremia and predicts elevated plasma homocysteine concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGregor, D O; Dellow, W J; Lever, M; George, P M; Robson, R A; Chambers, S T

    2001-06-01

    Hyperhomocysteinemia is a risk factor for atherosclerosis that is common in chronic renal failure (CRF), but its cause is unknown. Homocysteine metabolism is linked to betaine-homocysteine methyl transferase (BHMT), a zinc metalloenzyme that converts glycine betaine (GB) to N,N dimethylglycine (DMG). DMG is a known feedback inhibitor of BHMT. We postulated that DMG might accumulate in CRF and contribute to hyperhomocysteinemia by inhibiting BHMT activity. Plasma and urine concentrations of GB and DMG were measured in 33 dialysis patients (15 continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis and 18 hemodialysis), 33 patients with CRF, and 33 age-matched controls. Concentrations of fasting plasma total homocysteine (tHcy), red cell and serum folate, vitamins B(6) and B(12), serum zinc, and routine biochemistry were also measured. Groups were compared, and determinants of plasma tHcy were identified by correlations and stepwise linear regression. Plasma DMG increased as renal function declined and was twofold to threefold elevated in dialysis patients. Plasma GB did not differ between groups. The fractional excretion of GB (FE(GB)) was increased tenfold, and FED(MG) was doubled in CRF patients compared with controls. Plasma tHcy correlated positively with plasma DMG, the plasma DMG:GB ratio, plasma creatinine, and FE(GB) and negatively with serum folate, zinc, and plasma GB. In the multiple regression model, only plasma creatinine, plasma DMG, or the DMG:GB ratio was independent predictors of tHcy. DMG accumulates in CRF and independently predicts plasma tHcy concentrations. These findings suggest that reduced BHMT activity is important in the pathogenesis of hyperhomocysteinemia in CRF.

  20. Comparison of marine dispersion model predictions with environmental radionuclide concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johnson, C.E.; McKay, W.A.

    1988-01-01

    The comparison of marine dispersion model results with measurements is an essential part of model development and testing. The results from two residual flow models are compared with seawater concentrations, and in one case with concentrations measured in marine molluscs. For areas with short turnover times, seawater concentrations respond rapidly to variations in discharge rate and marine currents. These variations are difficult to model, and comparison with concentrations in marine animals provides an alternative and complementary technique for model validation with the advantages that the measurements reflect the mean conditions and frequently form a useful time series. (author)

  1. Predicting the Concentration Characteristics of Itakpe Iron Ore for cut ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    MICHAEL HORSFALL

    ABSTRACT: Concentration characteristics of an ore are very critical to the estimation of cut-off grade of a ... enormous financial cost of laboratory analysis and time required for such .... Arua A.I. (1997) Fundamentals of statistics, Publisher,.

  2. Correlation for predicting aerosol concentration in sodium spray fires

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marimuthu, K.

    2001-01-01

    Aerosol behaviour computer codes are reported for the study of time-dependent airborne aerosol concentration in a containment. The use of available computer codes requires a thorough knowledge of the various rate processes employed to describe the aerosol behaviour. The present work describes a simple empirical equation to calculate sodium fire aerosol concentration with respect to time in a containment and is applicable to sodium spray fire conditions. Sodium spray fire aerosol concentration values obtained using this simplified approach agree reasonably well with experimental results. The empirical equation described in the present work is incorporated in the spray fire code NACOM and the code calculated values of aerosol concentration agreement with the sodium spray fire experimental results is reasonably good. (author)

  3. Predicting human epidermal melanin concentrations for different skin tones

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Smit, Jacoba E

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available epidermal melanin concentrations for different skin tones JE Smit 1 , AE Karsten 2 , RW Sparrow 1 1 CSIR Biosciences, Pretoria, South Africa 2 CSIR National Laser Centre, Pretoria, South Africa Author e-mail address: KSmit...

  4. USING TURBIDITY DATA TO PREDICT SUSPENDED SEDIMENT CONCENTRATIONS: POSSIBILITIES, LIMITATIONS, AND PITFALLS

    Science.gov (United States)

    This talk will look at the relationships between turbidity and suspended sediment concentrations in a variety of geographic areas, geomorphic river types, and river sizes; and attempt to give guidance on using existing turbidity data to predict suspended sediment concentrations.

  5. Reliability, reference values and predictor variables of the ulnar sensory nerve in disease free adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruediger, T M; Allison, S C; Moore, J M; Wainner, R S

    2014-09-01

    The purposes of this descriptive and exploratory study were to examine electrophysiological measures of ulnar sensory nerve function in disease free adults to determine reliability, determine reference values computed with appropriate statistical methods, and examine predictive ability of anthropometric variables. Antidromic sensory nerve conduction studies of the ulnar nerve using surface electrodes were performed on 100 volunteers. Reference values were computed from optimally transformed data. Reliability was computed from 30 subjects. Multiple linear regression models were constructed from four predictor variables. Reliability was greater than 0.85 for all paired measures. Responses were elicited in all subjects; reference values for sensory nerve action potential (SNAP) amplitude from above elbow stimulation are 3.3 μV and decrement across-elbow less than 46%. No single predictor variable accounted for more than 15% of the variance in the response. Electrophysiologic measures of the ulnar sensory nerve are reliable. Absent SNAP responses are inconsistent with disease free individuals. Reference values recommended in this report are based on appropriate transformations of non-normally distributed data. No strong statistical model of prediction could be derived from the limited set of predictor variables. Reliability analyses combined with relatively low level of measurement error suggest that ulnar sensory reference values may be used with confidence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  6. Prenatal maternal cortisol concentrations predict neurodevelopment in middle childhood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Elysia Poggi; Head, Kevin; Buss, Claudia; Sandman, Curt A

    2017-01-01

    Glucocorticoids (cortisol in humans) are the end product of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenocortical (HPA) axis and are proposed as a key mechanism for programming fetal brain development. The present prospective longitudinal study evaluates the association between prenatal maternal cortisol concentrations and child neurodevelopment. Participants included a low risk sample of 91 mother-child pairs. Prenatal maternal plasma cortisol concentrations were measured at 19 and 31 gestational weeks. Brain development and cognitive functioning were assessed when children were 6-9 years of age. Structural magnetic resonance imaging scans were acquired and cortical thickness was determined. Child cognitive functioning was evaluated using standardized measures (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children IV and Expressive Vocabulary Test, Second Edition). Higher maternal cortisol concentrations during the third trimester were associated with greater child cortical thickness primarily in frontal regions. No significant associations were observed between prenatal maternal cortisol concentrations and child cortical thinning. Elevated third trimester maternal cortisol additionally was associated with enhanced child cognitive performance. Findings in this normative sample of typically developing children suggest that elevated maternal cortisol during late gestation exert lasting benefits for brain development and cognitive functioning 6-9 years later. The benefits of fetal exposure to higher maternal cortisol during the third trimester for child neurodevelopment are consistent with the role cortisol plays in maturation of the human fetus. It is plausible that more extreme elevations in maternal cortisol concentrations late in gestation, as well as exposure to pharmacological levels of synthetic glucocorticoids, may have neurotoxic effects on the developing fetal brain. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  7. Calculating flux to predict future cave radon concentrations

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Rowberry, Matthew David; Martí, Xavier; Frontera, C.; Van De Wiel, M.J.; Briestenský, Miloš

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 157, JUN (2016), 16-26 ISSN 0265-931X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LM2010008 Institutional support: RVO:67985891 ; RVO:68378271 Keywords : cave radon concentration * cave radon flux * cave ventilation * radioactive decay * fault slip * numerical modelling Subject RIV: DC - Siesmology, Volcanology, Earth Structure; BG - Nuclear, Atomic and Molecular Physics, Colliders (FZU-D) Impact factor: 2.310, year: 2016

  8. Transthyretin Concentrations in Acute Stroke Patients Predict Convalescent Rehabilitation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isono, Naofumi; Imamura, Yuki; Ohmura, Keiko; Ueda, Norihide; Kawabata, Shinji; Furuse, Motomasa; Kuroiwa, Toshihiko

    2017-06-01

    For stroke patients, intensive nutritional management is an important and effective component of inpatient rehabilitation. Accordingly, acute care hospitals must detect and prevent malnutrition at an early stage. Blood transthyretin levels are widely used as a nutritional monitoring index in critically ill patients. Here, we had analyzed the relationship between the transthyretin levels during the acute phase and Functional Independence Measure in stroke patients undergoing convalescent rehabilitation. We investigated 117 patients who were admitted to our hospital with acute ischemic or hemorrhagic stroke from February 2013 to October 2015 and subsequently transferred to convalescent hospitals after receiving acute treatment. Transthyretin concentrations were evaluated at 3 time points as follows: at admission, and 5 and 10 days after admission. After categorizing patients into 3 groups according to the minimum transthyretin level, we analyzed the association between transthyretin and Functional Independence Measure. In our patients, transthyretin levels decreased during the first 5 days after admission and recovered slightly during the subsequent 5 days. Notably, Functional Independence Measure efficiency was significantly associated with the decrease in transthyretin levels during the 5 days after admission. Patients with lower transthyretin levels had poorer Functional Independence Measure outcomes and tended not to be discharged to their own homes. A minimal transthyretin concentration (stroke patients undergoing convalescent rehabilitation. In particular, an early decrease in transthyretin levels suggests restricted rehabilitation efficiency. Accordingly, transthyretin levels should be monitored in acute stroke patients to indicate mid-term rehabilitation prospects. Copyright © 2017 National Stroke Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  9. Predicting arsenic concentrations in porewaters of buried uranium mill tailings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Langmuir, D.; Mahoney, J.; MacDonald, A.; Rowson, J.

    1999-10-01

    The proposed JEB Tailings Management Facility (TMF) to be emplaced below the groundwater table in northern Saskatchewan, Canada, will contain uranium mill tailings from McClean Lake, Midwest and Cigar Lake ore bodies, which are high in arsenic (up to 10%) and nickel (up to 5%). A serious concern is the possibility that high arsenic and nickel concentrations may be released from the buried tailings, contaminating adjacent groundwaters and a nearby lake. Laboratory tests and geochemical modeling were performed to examine ways to reduce the arsenic and nickel concentrations in TMF porewaters so as to minimize such contamination from tailings buried for 50 years and longer. The tests were designed to mimic conditions in the mill neutralization circuit (3 hr tests at 25 C), and in the TMF after burial (5--49 day aging tests). The aging tests were run at 50, 25 and 4 C (the temperature in the TMF). In order to optimize the removal of arsenic by adsorption and precipitation, ferric sulfate was added to tailings raffinates having Fe/As ratios of less than 3--5. The acid raffinates were then neutralized by addition of slaked lime to nominal pH values of 7, 8, or 9. Analysis and modeling of the test results showed that with slaked lime addition to acid tailings raffinates, relatively amorphous scorodite (ferric arsenate) precipitates near pH 1, and is the dominant form of arsenate in slake limed tailings solids except those high in Ni and As and low in Fe, in which cabrerite-annabergite (Ni, Mg, Fe(II) arsenate) may also precipitate near pH 5--6. In addition to the arsenate precipitates, smaller amounts of arsenate are also adsorbed onto tailings solids. The aging tests showed that after burial of the tailings, arsenic concentrations may increase with time from the breakdown of the arsenate phases (chiefly scorodite). However, the tests indicate that the rate of change decreases and approaches zero after 72 hrs at 25 C, and may equal zero at all times in the TMF at 4 C

  10. Prediction on long-term mean and mean square pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kumar, S; Lamb, R G; Seinfeld, J H

    1976-01-01

    The general problem of predicting long-term average (say yearly) pollutant concentrations in an urban atmosphere is formulated. The pollutant concentration can be viewed as a random process, the complete description of which requires knowledge of its probability density function, which is unknown. The mean concentration is the first moment of the concentration distribution, and at present there exist a number of models for predicting the long-term mean concentration of an inert pollutant. The second moment, or mean square concentration, indicates additional features of the distribution, such as the level of fluctuations about the mean. In the paper a model proposed by Lamb for the long-term mean concentration is reviewed, and a new model for prediction of the long-term mean square concentration of an inert air pollutant is derived. The properties and uses of the model are discussed, and the equations defining the model are presented in a form for direct application to an urban area.

  11. Gas Concentration Prediction Based on the Measured Data of a Coal Mine Rescue Robot

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiliang Ma

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The coal mine environment is complex and dangerous after gas accident; then a timely and effective rescue and relief work is necessary. Hence prediction of gas concentration in front of coal mine rescue robot is an important significance to ensure that the coal mine rescue robot carries out the exploration and search and rescue mission. In this paper, a gray neural network is proposed to predict the gas concentration 10 meters in front of the coal mine rescue robot based on the gas concentration, temperature, and wind speed of the current position and 1 meter in front. Subsequently the quantum genetic algorithm optimization gray neural network parameters of the gas concentration prediction method are proposed to get more accurate prediction of the gas concentration in the roadway. Experimental results show that a gray neural network optimized by the quantum genetic algorithm is more accurate for predicting the gas concentration. The overall prediction error is 9.12%, and the largest forecasting error is 11.36%; compared with gray neural network, the gas concentration prediction error increases by 55.23%. This means that the proposed method can better allow the coal mine rescue robot to accurately predict the gas concentration in the coal mine roadway.

  12. Population PK modelling and simulation based on fluoxetine and norfluoxetine concentrations in milk: a milk concentration-based prediction model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanoshima, Reo; Bournissen, Facundo Garcia; Tanigawara, Yusuke; Kristensen, Judith H; Taddio, Anna; Ilett, Kenneth F; Begg, Evan J; Wallach, Izhar; Ito, Shinya

    2014-10-01

    Population pharmacokinetic (pop PK) modelling can be used for PK assessment of drugs in breast milk. However, complex mechanistic modelling of a parent and an active metabolite using both blood and milk samples is challenging. We aimed to develop a simple predictive pop PK model for milk concentration-time profiles of a parent and a metabolite, using data on fluoxetine (FX) and its active metabolite, norfluoxetine (NFX), in milk. Using a previously published data set of drug concentrations in milk from 25 women treated with FX, a pop PK model predictive of milk concentration-time profiles of FX and NFX was developed. Simulation was performed with the model to generate FX and NFX concentration-time profiles in milk of 1000 mothers. This milk concentration-based pop PK model was compared with the previously validated plasma/milk concentration-based pop PK model of FX. Milk FX and NFX concentration-time profiles were described reasonably well by a one compartment model with a FX-to-NFX conversion coefficient. Median values of the simulated relative infant dose on a weight basis (sRID: weight-adjusted daily doses of FX and NFX through breastmilk to the infant, expressed as a fraction of therapeutic FX daily dose per body weight) were 0.028 for FX and 0.029 for NFX. The FX sRID estimates were consistent with those of the plasma/milk-based pop PK model. A predictive pop PK model based on only milk concentrations can be developed for simultaneous estimation of milk concentration-time profiles of a parent (FX) and an active metabolite (NFX). © 2014 The British Pharmacological Society.

  13. Application of XGBoost algorithm in hourly PM2.5 concentration prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Bingyue

    2018-02-01

    In view of prediction techniques of hourly PM2.5 concentration in China, this paper applied the XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting) algorithm to predict hourly PM2.5 concentration. The monitoring data of air quality in Tianjin city was analyzed by using XGBoost algorithm. The prediction performance of the XGBoost method is evaluated by comparing observed and predicted PM2.5 concentration using three measures of forecast accuracy. The XGBoost method is also compared with the random forest algorithm, multiple linear regression, decision tree regression and support vector machines for regression models using computational results. The results demonstrate that the XGBoost algorithm outperforms other data mining methods.

  14. Food chain model to predict westslope cutthroat trout ovary selenium concentrations from water concentrations in the Elk Valley, BC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Orr, P.; Wiramanaden, C.; Franklin, W.; Fraser, C.

    2010-01-01

    The 5 coal mines operated by Teck Coal Ltd. in British Columbia's Elk River watershed release selenium during weathering of mine waste rock. Since 1966, several field studies have been conducted in which selenium concentrations in biota were measured. They revealed that tissue concentrations are higher in aquatic biota sampled in lentic compared to lotic habitats of the watershed with similar water selenium concentrations. Two food chain models were developed based on the available data. The models described dietary selenium accumulation in the ovaries of lotic versus lentic westslope cutthroat trout (WCT), a valued aquatic resource in the Elk River system. The following 3 trophic transfer relationships were characterized for each model: (1) water to base of the food web, (2) base of the food web to benthic invertebrates, and (3) benthic invertebrates to WCT ovaries. The lotic and lentic models combined the resulting equations for each trophic transfer relationships to predict WCT ovary concentrations from water concentrations. The models were in very good agreement with the available data, despite fish movement and the fact that composite benthic invertebrate sample data were only an approximation of the feeding preferences of individual fish. Based on the observed rates of increase in water selenium concentrations throughout the watershed, the models predicted very small/slow increases in WCT ovary concentrations with time.

  15. Prediction of Air Pollutants Concentration Based on an Extreme Learning Machine: The Case of Hong Kong

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Jiangshe; Ding, Weifu

    2017-01-01

    With the development of the economy and society all over the world, most metropolitan cities are experiencing elevated concentrations of ground-level air pollutants. It is urgent to predict and evaluate the concentration of air pollutants for some local environmental or health agencies. Feed-forward artificial neural networks have been widely used in the prediction of air pollutants concentration. However, there are some drawbacks, such as the low convergence rate and the local minimum. The e...

  16. A rapid method of predicting radiocaesium concentrations in sheep from activity levels in faeces

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McGee, E.J.; Synnott, H.J.; Colgan, P.A.; Keatinge, M.J.

    1994-01-01

    The use of faecal samples taken from sheep flocks as a means of predicting radiocaesium concentrations in live animals was studied. Radiocaesium levels in 1726 sheep from 29 flocks were measured using in vivo techniques and a single faecal sample taken from each flock was also analysed. A highly significant relationship was found to exist between mean flock activity and activity in the corresponding faecal samples. Least-square regression yielded a simple model for predicting mean flock radiocaesium concentrations based on activity levels in faecal samples. A similar analysis of flock maxima and activity levels in faeces provides an alternative model for predicting the expected within-flock maximum radiocaesium concentration. (Author)

  17. Concentration addition, independent action and generalized concentration addition models for mixture effect prediction of sex hormone synthesis in vitro.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niels Hadrup

    Full Text Available Humans are concomitantly exposed to numerous chemicals. An infinite number of combinations and doses thereof can be imagined. For toxicological risk assessment the mathematical prediction of mixture effects, using knowledge on single chemicals, is therefore desirable. We investigated pros and cons of the concentration addition (CA, independent action (IA and generalized concentration addition (GCA models. First we measured effects of single chemicals and mixtures thereof on steroid synthesis in H295R cells. Then single chemical data were applied to the models; predictions of mixture effects were calculated and compared to the experimental mixture data. Mixture 1 contained environmental chemicals adjusted in ratio according to human exposure levels. Mixture 2 was a potency adjusted mixture containing five pesticides. Prediction of testosterone effects coincided with the experimental Mixture 1 data. In contrast, antagonism was observed for effects of Mixture 2 on this hormone. The mixtures contained chemicals exerting only limited maximal effects. This hampered prediction by the CA and IA models, whereas the GCA model could be used to predict a full dose response curve. Regarding effects on progesterone and estradiol, some chemicals were having stimulatory effects whereas others had inhibitory effects. The three models were not applicable in this situation and no predictions could be performed. Finally, the expected contributions of single chemicals to the mixture effects were calculated. Prochloraz was the predominant but not sole driver of the mixtures, suggesting that one chemical alone was not responsible for the mixture effects. In conclusion, the GCA model seemed to be superior to the CA and IA models for the prediction of testosterone effects. A situation with chemicals exerting opposing effects, for which the models could not be applied, was identified. In addition, the data indicate that in non-potency adjusted mixtures the effects cannot

  18. Hybrid ATDL-gamma distribution model for predicting area source acid gas concentrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jakeman, A J; Taylor, J A

    1985-01-01

    An air quality model is developed to predict the distribution of concentrations of acid gas in an urban airshed. The model is hybrid in character, combining reliable features of a deterministic ATDL-based model with statistical distributional approaches. The gamma distribution was identified from a range of distributional models as the best model. The paper shows that the assumptions of a previous hybrid model may be relaxed and presents a methodology for characterizing the uncertainty associated with model predictions. Results are demonstrated for the 98-percentile predictions of 24-h average data over annual periods at six monitoring sites. This percentile relates to the World Health Organization goal for acid gas concentrations.

  19. Biodynamic modelling and the prediction of accumulated trace metal concentrations in the polychaete Arenicola marina

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Casado-Martinez, M. Carmen; Smith, Brian D.; DelValls, T. Angel; Luoma, Samuel N.; Rainbow, Philip S.

    2009-01-01

    The use of biodynamic models to understand metal uptake directly from sediments by deposit-feeding organisms still represents a special challenge. In this study, accumulated concentrations of Cd, Zn and Ag predicted by biodynamic modelling in the lugworm Arenicola marina have been compared to measured concentrations in field populations in several UK estuaries. The biodynamic model predicted accumulated field Cd concentrations remarkably accurately, and predicted bioaccumulated Ag concentrations were in the range of those measured in lugworms collected from the field. For Zn the model showed less but still good comparability, accurately predicting Zn bioaccumulation in A. marina at high sediment concentrations but underestimating accumulated Zn in the worms from sites with low and intermediate levels of Zn sediment contamination. Therefore, it appears that the physiological parameters experimentally derived for A. marina are applicable to the conditions encountered in these environments and that the assumptions made in the model are plausible. - Biodynamic modelling predicts accumulated field concentrations of Ag, Cd and Zn in the deposit-feeding polychaete Arenicola marina.

  20. Prediction of Chl-a concentrations in an eutrophic lake using ANN models with hybrid inputs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksoy, A.; Yuzugullu, O.

    2017-12-01

    Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentrations in water bodies exhibit both spatial and temporal variations. As a result, frequent sampling is required with higher number of samples. This motivates the use of remote sensing as a monitoring tool. Yet, prediction performances of models that convert radiance values into Chl-a concentrations can be poor in shallow lakes. In this study, Chl-a concentrations in Lake Eymir, a shallow eutrophic lake in Ankara (Turkey), are determined using artificial neural network (ANN) models that use hybrid inputs composed of water quality and meteorological data as well as remotely sensed radiance values to improve prediction performance. Following a screening based on multi-collinearity and principal component analysis (PCA), dissolved-oxygen concentration (DO), pH, turbidity, and humidity were selected among several parameters as the constituents of the hybrid input dataset. Radiance values were obtained from QuickBird-2 satellite. Conversion of the hybrid input into Chl-a concentrations were studied for two different periods in the lake. ANN models were successful in predicting Chl-a concentrations. Yet, prediction performance declined for low Chl-a concentrations in the lake. In general, models with hybrid inputs were superior over the ones that solely used remotely sensed data.

  1. Short Term Prediction of PM10 Concentrations Using Seasonal Time Series Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Hazrul Abdul

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution modelling is one of an important tool that usually used to make short term and long term prediction. Since air pollution gives a big impact especially to human health, prediction of air pollutants concentration is needed to help the local authorities to give an early warning to people who are in risk of acute and chronic health effects from air pollution. Finding the best time series model would allow prediction to be made accurately. This research was carried out to find the best time series model to predict the PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan, Malaysia. By considering two seasons which is wet season (north east monsoon and dry season (south west monsoon, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model were used to find the most suitable model to predict the PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan by using three error measures. Based on AIC statistics, results show that ARIMA (1, 1, 1 × (1, 0, 012 is the most suitable model to predict PM10 concentrations in Nilai, Negeri Sembilan.

  2. [Disease-free survival related factors in breast cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dávila-Arias, Cristina; Ocón, Olga; Fernández, Mariana F; Arrebola, Juan Pedro; Sánchez, María José; Aneiros, José; Torné, Pablo; Olea, Nicolás

    2014-10-07

    To evaluate the relationship between the clinical and pathological parameters of the primary tumor and disease-free survival (DFS) in a sample of hospital cases of invasive breast cancer. We performed a retrospective cohort study in 635 patients recruited at San Cecilio University Hospital in Granada (Spain) between 1994 and 2006. Information on the primary tumor and the outcomes of patients was collected by reviewing the medical records. Predictors of recurrence and/or metastasis and DFS (follow up of 3, 5 and 10 years) were analyzed by using Cox regression analysis. Multivariate models adjusted for age, tumor size, lymph nodal status, histological grade and estrogen and progesterone receptor expression showed a higher risk of recurrence and/or metastasis and lower DFS (adjusted relative risk, 95% confidence intervals) with tumor size (3 yrs: 3.00, 1.79-5.03; 5 yrs: 2.56, 1.65-3.98; 10 yrs: 2.16, 1.44-3.24), lymph nodal status (3 yrs: 4.58, 2.42-8.65; 5 yrs: 3.84, 2.35-6.30; 10 yrs: 3.08, 2.05-4.61), lymphovascular invasion (5 yrs: 1.88, 1.16-3.04; 10 yrs: 2.19, 1.43-3.35), multifocal and/or multicenter tumors (3 yrs: 2.69, 1.46-4.96; 5 yrs: 1.90, 1.08-3.35) and p53 protein expression (3 yrs: 2.03, 1.00-4.09). DFS was positively associated with an increased expression of progesterone receptor (3 yr: 0.48, 0.26-0.89; 5 yrs: 0.58, 0.35-0.97; 10 yrs: 0.59, 0.38-0.90). The biological characteristics of the primary tumor can be used to identify patients with distinctive prognoses and DFS, and could be helpful in making individual follow up strategies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  3. High serum uric acid concentration predicts poor survival in patients with breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, Cai-Feng; Feng, Pin-Ning; Yao, Zhen-Rong; Yu, Xue-Gao; Lin, Wen-Bin; Qian, Yuan-Min; Guo, Yun-Miao; Li, Lai-Sheng; Liu, Min

    2017-10-01

    Uric acid is a product of purine metabolism. Recently, uric acid has gained much attraction in cancer. In this study, we aim to investigate the clinicopathological and prognostic significance of serum uric acid concentration in breast cancer patients. A total of 443 female patients with histopathologically diagnosed breast cancer were included. After a mean follow-up time of 56months, survival was analysed using the Kaplan-Meier method. To further evaluate the prognostic significance of uric acid concentrations, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were applied. Of the clinicopathological parameters, uric acid concentration was associated with age, body mass index, ER status and PR status. Univariate analysis identified that patients with increased uric acid concentration had a significantly inferior overall survival (HR 2.13, 95% CI 1.15-3.94, p=0.016). In multivariate analysis, we found that high uric acid concentration is an independent prognostic factor predicting death, but insufficient to predict local relapse or distant metastasis. Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that high uric acid concentration is related to the poor overall survival (p=0.013). High uric acid concentration predicts poor survival in patients with breast cancer, and might serve as a potential marker for appropriate management of breast cancer patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Analysis of predicted and measured performance of an integrated compound parabolic concentrator (ICPC)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winston, R.; O' Gallagher, J.J.; Muschaweck, J.; Mahoney, A.R.; Dudley, V.

    1999-07-01

    A variety of configurations of evacuated Integrated Compound Parabolic Concentrator (ICPC) tubes have been under development for many years. A particularly favorable optical design corresponds to the unit concentration limit for a fin CPC solution which is then coupled to a practical, thin, wedge-shaped absorber. Prototype collector modules using tubes with two different fin orientations (horizontal and vertical) have been fabricated and tested. Comprehensive measurements of the optical characteristics of the reflector and absorber have been used together with a detailed ray trace analysis to predict the optical performance characteristics of these designs. The observed performance agrees well with the predicted performance.

  5. Intercomparison of model predictions of tritium concentrations in soil and foods following acute airborne HTO exposure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barry, P.J.; Watkins, B.M.; Belot, Y.; Davis, P.A.; Edlund, O.; Galeriu, D.; Raskob, W.; Russell, S.; Togawa, O.

    1998-01-01

    This paper describes the results of a model intercomparision exercise for predicting tritium transport through foodchains. Modellers were asked to assume that farmland was exposed for one hour to an average concentration in air of 10 4 MBq tritium m -3 . They were given the initial soil moisture content and 30 days of hourly averaged historical weather and asked to predict HTO and OBT concentrations in foods at selected times up to 30 days later when crops were assumed to be harvested. Two fumigations were postulated, one at 10.00 h (i.e., in day-light), and the other at 24.00 h (i.e., in darkness).Predicted environmental media concentrations after the daytime exposure agreed within an order of magnitude in most cases. Important sources of differences were variations in choices of numerical values for transport parameters. The different depths of soil layers used in the models appeared to make important contributions to differences in predictions for the given scenario. Following the night-time exposure, however, greater differences in predicted concentrations appeared. These arose largely because of different ways key processes were assumed to be affected by darkness. Uptake of HTO by vegetation and the rate it is converted to OBT were prominent amongst these processes. Further research, experimental data and modelling intercomparisons are required to resolve some of these issues. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  6. Low plasma adiponectin concentrations do not predict weight gain in humans

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vozarova, Barbora; Stefan, Norbert; Lindsay, Robert S

    2002-01-01

    Low concentrations of plasma adiponectin, the most abundant adipose-specific protein, are observed in obese individuals and predict the development of type 2 diabetes. Administration of adiponectin to rodents prevented diet-induced weight gain, suggesting a potential etiologic role of hypoadipone......Low concentrations of plasma adiponectin, the most abundant adipose-specific protein, are observed in obese individuals and predict the development of type 2 diabetes. Administration of adiponectin to rodents prevented diet-induced weight gain, suggesting a potential etiologic role...... of hypoadiponectinemia in the development of obesity. Our aim was to prospectively examine whether low plasma adiponectin concentrations predict future weight gain in Pima Indians, explaining the predictive effect of adiponectin on the development of type 2 diabetes. We measured plasma adiponectin concentrations in 219...... nondiabetic Pima Indians (112 M/107 F, age 31 +/- 9 years, body weight 96 +/- 20 kg [mean +/- SD]) in whom body weight and height were measured and BMI calculated at baseline and follow-up. Cross-sectionally, plasma adiponectin concentrations were negatively associated with body weight (r = -0.28, P = 0...

  7. Global concentration additivity and prediction of mixture toxicities, taking nitrobenzene derivatives as an example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tong; Liu, Shu-Shen; Qu, Rui; Liu, Hai-Ling

    2017-10-01

    The toxicity of a mixture depends not only on the mixture concentration level but also on the mixture ratio. For a multiple-component mixture (MCM) system with a definite chemical composition, the mixture toxicity can be predicted only if the global concentration additivity (GCA) is validated. The so-called GCA means that the toxicity of any mixture in the MCM system is the concentration additive, regardless of what its mixture ratio and concentration level. However, many mixture toxicity reports have usually employed one mixture ratio (such as the EC 50 ratio), the equivalent effect concentration ratio (EECR) design, to specify several mixtures. EECR mixtures cannot simulate the concentration diversity and mixture ratio diversity of mixtures in the real environment, and it is impossible to validate the GCA. Therefore, in this paper, the uniform design ray (UD-Ray) was used to select nine mixture ratios (rays) in the mixture system of five nitrobenzene derivatives (NBDs). The representative UD-Ray mixtures can effectively and rationally describe the diversity in the NBD mixture system. The toxicities of the mixtures to Vibrio qinghaiensis sp.-Q67 were determined by the microplate toxicity analysis (MTA). For each UD-Ray mixture, the concentration addition (CA) model was used to validate whether the mixture toxicity is additive. All of the UD-Ray mixtures of five NBDs are global concentration additive. Afterwards, the CA is employed to predict the toxicities of the external mixtures from three EECR mixture rays with the NOEC, EC 30 , and EC 70 ratios. The predictive toxicities are in good agreement with the experimental toxicities, which testifies to the predictability of the mixture toxicity of the NBDs. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  8. Prediction and Observation of Electron Instabilities and Phase Space Holes Concentrated in the Lunar Plasma Wake

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutchinson, Ian H.; Malaspina, David M.

    2018-05-01

    Recent theory and numerical simulation predicts that the wake of the solar wind flow past the Moon should be the site of electrostatic instabilities that give rise to electron holes. These play an important role in the eventual merging of the wake with the background solar wind. Analysis of measurements from the ARTEMIS satellites, orbiting the Moon at distances from 1.2 to 11 RM, detects holes highly concentrated in the wake, in agreement with prediction. The theory also predicts that the hole flux density observed should be hollow, peaking away from the wake axis. Observation statistics qualitatively confirm this hollowness, lending extra supporting evidence for the identification of their generation mechanism.

  9. Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeganeh, B.; Motlagh, M. Shafie Pour; Rashidi, Y.; Kamalan, H.

    2012-08-01

    Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS-SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS-SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65-85% for hybrid PLS-SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS-SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS-SVM model.

  10. A novel calibration approach of MODIS AOD data to predict PM2.5 concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Koutrakis

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological studies investigating the human health effects of PM2.5 are susceptible to exposure measurement errors, a form of bias in exposure estimates, since they rely on data from a limited number of PM2.5 monitors within their study area. Satellite data can be used to expand spatial coverage, potentially enhancing our ability to estimate location- or subject-specific exposures to PM2.5, but some have reported poor predictive power. A new methodology was developed to calibrate aerosol optical depth (AOD data obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS. Subsequently, this method was used to predict ground daily PM2.5 concentrations in the New England region. 2003 MODIS AOD data corresponding to the New England region were retrieved, and PM2.5 concentrations measured at 26 US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA PM2.5 monitoring sites were used to calibrate the AOD data. A mixed effects model which allows day-to-day variability in daily PM2.5-AOD relationships was used to predict location-specific PM2.5 levels. PM2.5 concentrations measured at the monitoring sites were compared to those predicted for the corresponding grid cells. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal comparisons between the observed and predicted concentrations suggested that the proposed new calibration approach renders MODIS AOD data a potentially useful predictor of PM2.5 concentrations. Furthermore, the estimated PM2.5 levels within the study domain were examined in relation to air pollution sources. Our approach made it possible to investigate the spatial patterns of PM2.5 concentrations within the study domain.

  11. Prediction of indoor radon concentration based on residence location and construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maekelaeinen, I.; Voutilainen, A.; Castren, O.

    1992-01-01

    We have constructed a model for assessing indoor radon concentrations in houses where measurements cannot be performed. It has been used in an epidemiological study and to determine the radon potential of new building sites. The model is based on data from about 10,000 buildings. Integrated radon measurements were made during the cold season in all the houses; their geographic coordinates were also known. The 2-mo measurement results were corrected to annual average concentrations. Construction data were collected from questionnaires completed by residents; geological data were determined from geological maps. Data were classified according to geographical, geological, and construction factors. In order to describe different radon production levels, the country was divided into four zones. We assumed that the factors were multiplicative, and a linear concentration-prediction model was used. The most significant factor in determining radon concentration was the geographical region, followed by soil type, year of construction, and type of foundation. The predicted indoor radon concentrations given by the model varied from 50 to 440 Bq m -3 . The lower figure represents a house with a basement, built in the 1950s on clay soil, in the region with the lowest radon concentration levels. The higher value represents a house with a concrete slab in contact with the ground, built in the 1980s, on gravel, in the region with the highest average radon concentration

  12. Arsenic concentrations, related environmental factors, and the predicted probability of elevated arsenic in groundwater in Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Eliza L.; Low, Dennis J.

    2013-01-01

    Analytical results for arsenic in water samples from 5,023 wells obtained during 1969–2007 across Pennsylvania were compiled and related to other associated groundwater-quality and environmental factors and used to predict the probability of elevated arsenic concentrations, defined as greater than or equal to 4.0 micrograms per liter (µg/L), in groundwater. Arsenic concentrations of 4.0 µg/L or greater (elevated concentrations) were detected in 18 percent of samples across Pennsylvania; 8 percent of samples had concentrations that equaled or exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s drinking-water maximum contaminant level of 10.0 µg/L. The highest arsenic concentration was 490.0 µg/L.

  13. Prediction of Air Pollutants Concentration Based on an Extreme Learning Machine: The Case of Hong Kong

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiangshe Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of the economy and society all over the world, most metropolitan cities are experiencing elevated concentrations of ground-level air pollutants. It is urgent to predict and evaluate the concentration of air pollutants for some local environmental or health agencies. Feed-forward artificial neural networks have been widely used in the prediction of air pollutants concentration. However, there are some drawbacks, such as the low convergence rate and the local minimum. The extreme learning machine for single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks tends to provide good generalization performance at an extremely fast learning speed. The major sources of air pollutants in Hong Kong are mobile, stationary, and from trans-boundary sources. We propose predicting the concentration of air pollutants by the use of trained extreme learning machines based on the data obtained from eight air quality parameters in two monitoring stations, including Sham Shui Po and Tap Mun in Hong Kong for six years. The experimental results show that our proposed algorithm performs better on the Hong Kong data both quantitatively and qualitatively. Particularly, our algorithm shows better predictive ability, with R 2 increased and root mean square error values decreased respectively.

  14. Prediction of hydroxyl concentrations in cement pore water using a numerical cement hydration model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Eijk, van R.J.; Brouwers, H.J.H.

    2000-01-01

    In this paper, a 3D numerical cement hydration model is used for predicting alkali and hydroxyl concentrations in cement pore water. First, this numerical model is calibrated for Dutch cement employing both chemical shrinkage and calorimetric experiments. Secondly, the strength development of some

  15. A study on prediction of uranium concentration in pregnant solution from in-situ leaching

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yi Weiping; Zhou Quan; Yu Yunzhen; Wang Shude; Yang Yihan; Lei Qifeng

    2005-01-01

    The modeling course on prediction of uranium concentration in pregnant solution from in-situ leaching of uranium is described, a mathematical model based on grey system theory is put forward, and a set of computer application software is correspondingly developed. (authors)

  16. Aquatic Exposure Predictions of Insecticide Field Concentrations Using a Multimedia Mass-Balance Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knäbel, Anja; Scheringer, Martin; Stehle, Sebastian; Schulz, Ralf

    2016-04-05

    Highly complex process-driven mechanistic fate and transport models and multimedia mass balance models can be used for the exposure prediction of pesticides in different environmental compartments. Generally, both types of models differ in spatial and temporal resolution. Process-driven mechanistic fate models are very complex, and calculations are time-intensive. This type of model is currently used within the European regulatory pesticide registration (FOCUS). Multimedia mass-balance models require fewer input parameters to calculate concentration ranges and the partitioning between different environmental media. In this study, we used the fugacity-based small-region model (SRM) to calculate predicted environmental concentrations (PEC) for 466 cases of insecticide field concentrations measured in European surface waters. We were able to show that the PECs of the multimedia model are more protective in comparison to FOCUS. In addition, our results show that the multimedia model results have a higher predictive power to simulate varying field concentrations at a higher level of field relevance. The adaptation of the model scenario to actual field conditions suggests that the performance of the SRM increases when worst-case conditions are replaced by real field data. Therefore, this study shows that a less complex modeling approach than that used in the regulatory risk assessment exhibits a higher level of protectiveness and predictiveness and that there is a need to develop and evaluate new ecologically relevant scenarios in the context of pesticide exposure modeling.

  17. Intra-Operative Amylase Concentration in Peri-Pancreatic Fluid Predicts Pancreatic Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nahm, C.B.; Reuver, P.R.; Hugh, T.J.; Pearson, A.; Gill, A.J.; Samra, J.S.; Mittal, A.

    2017-01-01

    Post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a potentially severe complication following distal pancreatectomy. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of intra-operative amylase concentration (IOAC) in peri-pancreatic fluid after distal pancreatectomy for the diagnosis of POPF.

  18. Prediction of Air Pollutants Concentration Based on an Extreme Learning Machine: The Case of Hong Kong.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jiangshe; Ding, Weifu

    2017-01-24

    With the development of the economy and society all over the world, most metropolitan cities are experiencing elevated concentrations of ground-level air pollutants. It is urgent to predict and evaluate the concentration of air pollutants for some local environmental or health agencies. Feed-forward artificial neural networks have been widely used in the prediction of air pollutants concentration. However, there are some drawbacks, such as the low convergence rate and the local minimum. The extreme learning machine for single hidden layer feed-forward neural networks tends to provide good generalization performance at an extremely fast learning speed. The major sources of air pollutants in Hong Kong are mobile, stationary, and from trans-boundary sources. We propose predicting the concentration of air pollutants by the use of trained extreme learning machines based on the data obtained from eight air quality parameters in two monitoring stations, including Sham Shui Po and Tap Mun in Hong Kong for six years. The experimental results show that our proposed algorithm performs better on the Hong Kong data both quantitatively and qualitatively. Particularly, our algorithm shows better predictive ability, with R 2 increased and root mean square error values decreased respectively.

  19. Importance of Foliar Nitrogen Concentration to Predict Forest Productivity in the Mid-Atlantic Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yude Pan; John Hom; Jennifer Jenkins; Richard Birdsey

    2004-01-01

    To assess what difference it might make to include spatially defined estimates of foliar nitrogen in the regional application of a forest ecosystem model (PnET-II), we composed model predictions of wood production from extensive ground-based forest inventory analysis data across the Mid-Atlantic region. Spatial variation in foliar N concentration was assigned based on...

  20. Mathematical Model to Predict Skin Concentration after Topical Application of Drugs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroaki Todo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Skin permeation experiments have been broadly done since 1970s to 1980s as an evaluation method for transdermal drug delivery systems. In topically applied drug and cosmetic formulations, skin concentration of chemical compounds is more important than their skin permeations, because primary target site of the chemical compounds is skin surface or skin tissues. Furthermore, the direct pharmacological reaction of a metabolically stable drug that binds with specific receptors of known expression levels in an organ can be determined by Hill’s equation. Nevertheless, little investigation was carried out on the test method of skin concentration after topically application of chemical compounds. Recently we investigated an estimating method of skin concentration of the chemical compounds from their skin permeation profiles. In the study, we took care of “3Rs” issues for animal experiments. We have proposed an equation which was capable to estimate animal skin concentration from permeation profile through the artificial membrane (silicone membrane and animal skin. This new approach may allow the skin concentration of a drug to be predicted using Fick’s second law of diffusion. The silicone membrane was found to be useful as an alternative membrane to animal skin for predicting skin concentration of chemical compounds, because an extremely excellent extrapolation to animal skin concentration was attained by calculation using the silicone membrane permeation data. In this chapter, we aimed to establish an accurate and convenient method for predicting the concentration profiles of drugs in the skin based on the skin permeation parameters of topically active drugs derived from steady-state skin permeation experiments.

  1. Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

    2017-01-01

    Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13–24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). - Highlights: • Regional air pollutant concentration shows an obvious spatiotemporal correlation. • Our prediction model presents superior performance. • Climate data and metadata can significantly

  2. A new method to measure effective soil solution concentration predicts copper availability to plants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H; Zhao, F J; Sun, B; Davison, W; McGrath, S P

    2001-06-15

    Risk assessments of metal contaminated soils need to address metal bioavailability. To predict the bioavailability of metals to plants, it is necessary to understand both solution and solid phase supply processes in soils. In striving to find surrogate chemical measurements, scientists have focused either on soil solution chemistry, including free ion activities, or operationally defined fractions of metals. Here we introduce the new concept of effective concentration, CE, which includes both the soil solution concentration and an additional term, expressed as a concentration, that represents metal supplied from the solid phase. CE was measured using the technique of diffusive gradients in thin films (DGT) which, like a plant, locally lowers soil solution concentrations, inducing metal supply from the solid phase, as shown by a dynamic model of the DGT-soil system. Measurements of Cu as CE, soil solution concentration, by EDTA extraction and as free Cu2+ activity in soil solution were made on 29 different soils covering a large range of copper concentrations. Theywere compared to Cu concentrations in the plant material of Lepidium heterophyllum grown on the same soils. Plant concentrations were linearly related and highly correlated with CE but were more scattered and nonlinear with respect to free Cu2+ activity, EDTA extraction, or soil solution concentrations. These results demonstrate that the dominant supply processes in these soils are diffusion and labile metal release, which the DGT-soil system mimics. The quantity CE is shown to have promise as a quantitative measure of the bioavailable metal in soils.

  3. Maximum solid concentrations of coal water slurries predicted by neural network models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cheng, Jun; Li, Yanchang; Zhou, Junhu; Liu, Jianzhong; Cen, Kefa

    2010-12-15

    The nonlinear back-propagation (BP) neural network models were developed to predict the maximum solid concentration of coal water slurry (CWS) which is a substitute for oil fuel, based on physicochemical properties of 37 typical Chinese coals. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm was used to train five BP neural network models with different input factors. The data pretreatment method, learning rate and hidden neuron number were optimized by training models. It is found that the Hardgrove grindability index (HGI), moisture and coalification degree of parent coal are 3 indispensable factors for the prediction of CWS maximum solid concentration. Each BP neural network model gives a more accurate prediction result than the traditional polynomial regression equation. The BP neural network model with 3 input factors of HGI, moisture and oxygen/carbon ratio gives the smallest mean absolute error of 0.40%, which is much lower than that of 1.15% given by the traditional polynomial regression equation. (author)

  4. Watershed regressions for pesticides (WARP) for predicting atrazine concentration in Corn Belt streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.

    2011-01-01

    Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models, previously developed for atrazine at the national scale, can be improved for application to the U.S. Corn Belt region by developing region-specific models that include important watershed characteristics that are influential in predicting atrazine concentration statistics within the Corn Belt. WARP models for the Corn Belt (WARP-CB) were developed for predicting annual maximum moving-average (14-, 21-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day durations) and annual 95th-percentile atrazine concentrations in streams of the Corn Belt region. All streams used in development of WARP-CB models drain watersheds with atrazine use intensity greater than 17 kilograms per square kilometer (kg/km2). The WARP-CB models accounted for 53 to 62 percent of the variability in the various concentration statistics among the model-development sites.

  5. Prediction of Coal Face Gas Concentration by Multi-Scale Selective Ensemble Hybrid Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    WU Xiang

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available A selective ensemble hybrid modeling prediction method based on wavelet transformation is proposed to improve the fitting and generalization capability of the existing prediction models of the coal face gas concentration, which has a strong stochastic volatility. Mallat algorithm was employed for the multi-scale decomposition and single-scale reconstruction of the gas concentration time series. Then, it predicted every subsequence by sparsely weighted multi unstable ELM(extreme learning machine predictor within method SERELM(sparse ensemble regressors of ELM. At last, it superimposed the predicted values of these models to obtain the predicted values of the original sequence. The proposed method takes advantage of characteristics of multi scale analysis of wavelet transformation, accuracy and fast characteristics of ELM prediction and the generalization ability of L1 regularized selective ensemble learning method. The results show that the forecast accuracy has large increase by using the proposed method. The average relative error is 0.65%, the maximum relative error is 4.16% and the probability of relative error less than 1% reaches 0.785.

  6. Predicting and measurement of pH of seawater reverse osmosis concentrates

    KAUST Repository

    Waly, Tarek

    2011-10-01

    The pH of seawater reverse osmosis plants (SWRO) is the most influential parameter in determining the degree of supersaturation of CaCO3 in the concentrate stream. For this, the results of pH measurements of the concentrate of a seawater reverse osmosis pilot plant were compared with pH calculations based on the CO2-HCO3 --CO3 2- system equilibrium equations. Results were compared with two commercial software programs from membrane suppliers and also the software package Phreeqc. Results suggest that the real concentrate pH is lower than that of the feed and that none of the used programs was able to predict correctly real pH values. In addition, the effect of incorporating the acidity constant calculated for NaCl medium or seawater medium showed a great influence on the concentrate pH determination. The HCO3 - and CO3 2- equilibrium equation using acidity constants developed for seawater medium was the only method able to predict correctly the concentrate pH. The outcome of this study indicated that the saturation level of the concentrate was lower than previously anticipated. This was confirmed by shutting down the acid and the antiscalants dosing without any signs of scaling over a period of 12 months. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  7. An Improved Method of Predicting Extinction Coefficients for the Determination of Protein Concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hilario, Eric C; Stern, Alan; Wang, Charlie H; Vargas, Yenny W; Morgan, Charles J; Swartz, Trevor E; Patapoff, Thomas W

    2017-01-01

    Concentration determination is an important method of protein characterization required in the development of protein therapeutics. There are many known methods for determining the concentration of a protein solution, but the easiest to implement in a manufacturing setting is absorption spectroscopy in the ultraviolet region. For typical proteins composed of the standard amino acids, absorption at wavelengths near 280 nm is due to the three amino acid chromophores tryptophan, tyrosine, and phenylalanine in addition to a contribution from disulfide bonds. According to the Beer-Lambert law, absorbance is proportional to concentration and path length, with the proportionality constant being the extinction coefficient. Typically the extinction coefficient of proteins is experimentally determined by measuring a solution absorbance then experimentally determining the concentration, a measurement with some inherent variability depending on the method used. In this study, extinction coefficients were calculated based on the measured absorbance of model compounds of the four amino acid chromophores. These calculated values for an unfolded protein were then compared with an experimental concentration determination based on enzymatic digestion of proteins. The experimentally determined extinction coefficient for the native proteins was consistently found to be 1.05 times the calculated value for the unfolded proteins for a wide range of proteins with good accuracy and precision under well-controlled experimental conditions. The value of 1.05 times the calculated value was termed the predicted extinction coefficient. Statistical analysis shows that the differences between predicted and experimentally determined coefficients are scattered randomly, indicating no systematic bias between the values among the proteins measured. The predicted extinction coefficient was found to be accurate and not subject to the inherent variability of experimental methods. We propose the use of a

  8. Prediction of Dissolved Gas Concentrations in Transformer Oil Based on the KPCA-FFOA-GRNN Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Lin

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of analyzing the dissolved gas in transformer oil is to determine the transformer’s operating status and is an important basis for fault diagnosis. Accurate prediction of the concentration of dissolved gas in oil can provide an important reference for the evaluation of the state of the transformer. A combined predicting model is proposed based on kernel principal component analysis (KPCA and a generalized regression neural network (GRNN using an improved fruit fly optimization algorithm (FFOA to select the smooth factor. Firstly, based on the idea of using the dissolved gas ratio of oil to diagnose the transformer fault, gas concentration ratios are also used as characteristic parameters. Secondly, the main parameters are selected from the feature parameters using the KPCA method, and the GRNN is then used to predict the gas concentration in the transformer oil. In the training process of the network, the FFOA is used to select the smooth factor of the neural network. Through a concrete example, it is shown that the method proposed in this paper has better data fitting ability and more accurate prediction ability compared with the support vector machine (SVM and gray model (GM methods.

  9. Predicting glycogen concentration in the foot muscle of abalone using near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fluckiger, Miriam; Brown, Malcolm R; Ward, Louise R; Moltschaniwskyj, Natalie A

    2011-06-15

    Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) was used to predict glycogen concentrations in the foot muscle of cultured abalone. NIR spectra of live, shucked and freeze-dried abalones were modelled against chemically measured glycogen data (range: 0.77-40.9% of dry weight (DW)) using partial least squares (PLS) regression. The calibration models were then used to predict glycogen concentrations of test abalone samples and model robustness was assessed from coefficient of determination of the validation (R2(val)) and standard error of prediction (SEP) values. The model for freeze-dried abalone gave the best prediction (R2(val) 0.97, SEP=1.71), making it suitable for quantifying glycogen. Models for live and shucked abalones had R2(val) of 0.86 and 0.90, and SEP of 3.46 and 3.07 respectively, making them suitable for producing estimations of glycogen concentration. As glycogen is a taste-active component associated with palatability in abalone, this study demonstrated the potential of NIRS as a rapid method to monitor the factors associated with abalone quality. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Watershed regressions for pesticides (warp) models for predicting atrazine concentrations in Corn Belt streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Wesley W.; Gilliom, Robert J.

    2012-01-01

    Watershed Regressions for Pesticides (WARP) models, previously developed for atrazine at the national scale, are improved for application to the United States (U.S.) Corn Belt region by developing region-specific models that include watershed characteristics that are influential in predicting atrazine concentration statistics within the Corn Belt. WARP models for the Corn Belt (WARP-CB) were developed for annual maximum moving-average (14-, 21-, 30-, 60-, and 90-day durations) and annual 95th-percentile atrazine concentrations in streams of the Corn Belt region. The WARP-CB models accounted for 53 to 62% of the variability in the various concentration statistics among the model-development sites. Model predictions were within a factor of 5 of the observed concentration statistic for over 90% of the model-development sites. The WARP-CB residuals and uncertainty are lower than those of the National WARP model for the same sites. Although atrazine-use intensity is the most important explanatory variable in the National WARP models, it is not a significant variable in the WARP-CB models. The WARP-CB models provide improved predictions for Corn Belt streams draining watersheds with atrazine-use intensities of 17 kg/km2 of watershed area or greater.

  11. Long short-term memory neural network for air pollutant concentration predictions: Method development and evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; Peng, Ling; Yao, Xiaojing; Cui, Shaolong; Hu, Yuan; You, Chengzeng; Chi, Tianhe

    2017-12-01

    Air pollutant concentration forecasting is an effective method of protecting public health by providing an early warning against harmful air pollutants. However, existing methods of air pollutant concentration prediction fail to effectively model long-term dependencies, and most neglect spatial correlations. In this paper, a novel long short-term memory neural network extended (LSTME) model that inherently considers spatiotemporal correlations is proposed for air pollutant concentration prediction. Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers were used to automatically extract inherent useful features from historical air pollutant data, and auxiliary data, including meteorological data and time stamp data, were merged into the proposed model to enhance the performance. Hourly PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) concentration data collected at 12 air quality monitoring stations in Beijing City from Jan/01/2014 to May/28/2016 were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed LSTME model. Experiments were performed using the spatiotemporal deep learning (STDL) model, the time delay neural network (TDNN) model, the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) model, the support vector regression (SVR) model, and the traditional LSTM NN model, and a comparison of the results demonstrated that the LSTME model is superior to the other statistics-based models. Additionally, the use of auxiliary data improved model performance. For the one-hour prediction tasks, the proposed model performed well and exhibited a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 11.93%. In addition, we conducted multiscale predictions over different time spans and achieved satisfactory performance, even for 13-24 h prediction tasks (MAPE = 31.47%). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Ordinary kriging approach to predicting long-term particulate matter concentrations in seven major Korean cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sun-Young Kim

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Objectives Cohort studies of associations between air pollution and health have used exposure prediction approaches to estimate individual-level concentrations. A common prediction method used in Korean cohort studies is ordinary kriging. In this study, performance of ordinary kriging models for long-term particulate matter less than or equal to 10 μm in diameter (PM10 concentrations in seven major Korean cities was investigated with a focus on spatial prediction ability. Methods We obtained hourly PM10 data for 2010 at 226 urban-ambient monitoring sites in South Korea and computed annual average PM10 concentrations at each site. Given the annual averages, we developed ordinary kriging prediction models for each of the seven major cities and for the entire country by using an exponential covariance reference model and a maximum likelihood estimation method. For model evaluation, cross-validation was performed and mean square error and R-squared (R2 statistics were computed. Results Mean annual average PM10 concentrations in the seven major cities ranged between 45.5 and 66.0 μg/m3 (standard deviation=2.40 and 9.51 μg/m3, respectively. Cross-validated R2 values in Seoul and Busan were 0.31 and 0.23, respectively, whereas the other five cities had R2 values of zero. The national model produced a higher crossvalidated R2 (0.36 than those for the city-specific models. Conclusions In general, the ordinary kriging models performed poorly for the seven major cities and the entire country of South Korea, but the model performance was better in the national model. To improve model performance, future studies should examine different prediction approaches that incorporate PM10 source characteristics.

  13. Concentrations of antibiotics predicted to select for resistant bacteria: Proposed limits for environmental regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bengtsson-Palme, Johan; Larsson, D G Joakim

    2016-01-01

    There are concerns that selection pressure from antibiotics in the environment may accelerate the evolution and dissemination of antibiotic-resistant pathogens. Nevertheless, there is currently no regulatory system that takes such risks into account. In part, this is due to limited knowledge of environmental concentrations that might exert selection for resistant bacteria. To experimentally determine minimal selective concentrations in complex microbial ecosystems for all antibiotics would involve considerable effort. In this work, our aim was to estimate upper boundaries for selective concentrations for all common antibiotics, based on the assumption that selective concentrations a priori need to be lower than those completely inhibiting growth. Data on Minimal Inhibitory Concentrations (MICs) were obtained for 111 antibiotics from the public EUCAST database. The 1% lowest observed MICs were identified, and to compensate for limited species coverage, predicted lowest MICs adjusted for the number of tested species were extrapolated through modeling. Predicted No Effect Concentrations (PNECs) for resistance selection were then assessed using an assessment factor of 10 to account for differences between MICs and minimal selective concentrations. The resulting PNECs ranged from 8 ng/L to 64 μg/L. Furthermore, the link between taxonomic similarity between species and lowest MIC was weak. This work provides estimated upper boundaries for selective concentrations (lowest MICs) and PNECs for resistance selection for all common antibiotics. In most cases, PNECs for selection of resistance were below available PNECs for ecotoxicological effects. The generated PNECs can guide implementation of compound-specific emission limits that take into account risks for resistance promotion. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. The importance of different frequency bands in predicting subcutaneous glucose concentration in type 1 diabetic patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yinghui; Gribok, Andrei V; Ward, W Kenneth; Reifman, Jaques

    2010-08-01

    We investigated the relative importance and predictive power of different frequency bands of subcutaneous glucose signals for the short-term (0-50 min) forecasting of glucose concentrations in type 1 diabetic patients with data-driven autoregressive (AR) models. The study data consisted of minute-by-minute glucose signals collected from nine deidentified patients over a five-day period using continuous glucose monitoring devices. AR models were developed using single and pairwise combinations of frequency bands of the glucose signal and compared with a reference model including all bands. The results suggest that: for open-loop applications, there is no need to explicitly represent exogenous inputs, such as meals and insulin intake, in AR models; models based on a single-frequency band, with periods between 60-120 min and 150-500 min, yield good predictive power (error bands produce predictions that are indistinguishable from those of the reference model as long as the 60-120 min period band is included; and AR models can be developed on signals of short length (approximately 300 min), i.e., ignoring long circadian rhythms, without any detriment in prediction accuracy. Together, these findings provide insights into efficient development of more effective and parsimonious data-driven models for short-term prediction of glucose concentrations in diabetic patients.

  15. Prediction of the HBS width and Xe concentration in grain matrix by the INFRA code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Yong Sik; Lee, Chan Bok; Kim, Dae Ho; Kim, Young Min

    2004-01-01

    Formation of a HBS(High Burnup Structure) is an important phenomenon for the high burnup fuel performance and safety. For the prediction of the HBS(so called 'rim microstructure') proposed rim microstructure formation model, which is a function of the fuel temperature, grain size and fission rate, was inserted into the high burnup fuel performance code INFRA. During the past decades, various examinations have been performed to find the HBS formation mechanism and define HBS characteristics. In the HBEP(High Burnup Effects Program), several rods were examined by EPMA analysis to measure HBS width and these results were re-measured by improved technology including XRF and detail microstructure examination. Recently, very high burnup(∼100MWd/kgU) fuel examination results were reported by Manzel et al., and EPMA analysis results have been released. Using the measured EPMA analysis data, HBS formation prediction model of INFRA code are verified. HBS width prediction results are compared with measured ones and Xe concentration profile is compared with measured EPMA data. Calculated HBS width shows good agreement with measured data in a reasonable error range. Though, there are some difference in transition region and central region due to model limitation and fission gas release prediction error respectively, however, predicted Xe concentration in the fully developed HBS region shows a good agreement with the measured data. (Author)

  16. Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin

    2018-05-01

    Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km 2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization

  17. Lake nutrient stoichiometry is less predictable than nutrient concentrations at regional and sub-continental scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collins, Sarah M; Oliver, Samantha K; Lapierre, Jean-Francois; Stanley, Emily H; Jones, John R; Wagner, Tyler; Soranno, Patricia A

    2017-07-01

    Production in many ecosystems is co-limited by multiple elements. While a known suite of drivers associated with nutrient sources, nutrient transport, and internal processing controls concentrations of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) in lakes, much less is known about whether the drivers of single nutrient concentrations can also explain spatial or temporal variation in lake N:P stoichiometry. Predicting stoichiometry might be more complex than predicting concentrations of individual elements because some drivers have similar relationships with N and P, leading to a weak relationship with their ratio. Further, the dominant controls on elemental concentrations likely vary across regions, resulting in context dependent relationships between drivers, lake nutrients and their ratios. Here, we examine whether known drivers of N and P concentrations can explain variation in N:P stoichiometry, and whether explaining variation in stoichiometry differs across regions. We examined drivers of N:P in ~2,700 lakes at a sub-continental scale and two large regions nested within the sub-continental study area that have contrasting ecological context, including differences in the dominant type of land cover (agriculture vs. forest). At the sub-continental scale, lake nutrient concentrations were correlated with nutrient loading and lake internal processing, but stoichiometry was only weakly correlated to drivers of lake nutrients. At the regional scale, drivers that explained variation in nutrients and stoichiometry differed between regions. In the Midwestern U.S. region, dominated by agricultural land use, lake depth and the percentage of row crop agriculture were strong predictors of stoichiometry because only phosphorus was related to lake depth and only nitrogen was related to the percentage of row crop agriculture. In contrast, all drivers were related to N and P in similar ways in the Northeastern U.S. region, leading to weak relationships between drivers and stoichiometry

  18. The prediction of concentration profiles for a NIMCIX column absorbing uranium from aqueous solution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wright, R.S.

    1979-01-01

    A procedure is proposed for the prediction of concentration profiles for a countercurrent ion-exchange absorption column, use being made of equilibrium and kinetic data derived from small-scale batch tests. A comparison is presented between the predictions and the measured performance of a column (2,5 m in diameter) absorbing uranium from solution. The method is shown to be adequate for design purposes provided that the data used are from tests in which the solution and resin conditions approximate those for which the plant is being designed [af

  19. Do plasma concentrations of apelin predict prognosis in patients with advanced heart failure?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalzell, Jonathan R; Jackson, Colette E; Chong, Kwok S; McDonagh, Theresa A; Gardner, Roy S

    2014-01-01

    Apelin is an endogenous vasodilator and inotrope, plasma concentrations of which are reduced in advanced heart failure (HF). We determined the prognostic significance of plasma concentrations of apelin in advanced HF. Plasma concentrations of apelin were measured in 182 patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction. The predictive value of apelin for the primary end point of all-cause mortality was assessed over a median follow-up period of 544 (IQR: 196-923) days. In total, 30 patients (17%) reached the primary end point. Of those patients with a plasma apelin concentration above the median, 14 (16%) reached the primary end point compared with 16 (17%) of those with plasma apelin levels below the median (p = NS). NT-proBNP was the most powerful prognostic marker in this population (log rank statistic: 10.37; p = 0.001). Plasma apelin concentrations do not predict medium to long-term prognosis in patients with advanced HF secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction.

  20. MLP based models to predict PM10, O3 concentrations, in Sines industrial area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durao, R.; Pereira, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    Sines is an important Portuguese industrial area located southwest cost of Portugal with important nearby protected natural areas. The main economical activities are related with this industrial area, the deep-water port, petrochemical and thermo-electric industry. Nevertheless, tourism is also an important economic activity especially in summer time with potential to grow. The aim of this study is to develop prediction models of pollutant concentration categories (e.g. low concentration and high concentration) in order to provide early warnings to the competent authorities who are responsible for the air quality management. The knowledge in advanced of pollutant high concentrations occurrence will allow the implementation of mitigation actions and the release of precautionary alerts to population. The regional air quality monitoring network consists in three monitoring stations where a set of pollutants' concentrations are registered on a continuous basis. From this set stands out the tropospheric ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) due to the high concentrations occurring in the region and their adverse effects on human health. Moreover, the major industrial plants of the region monitor SO2, NO2 and particles emitted flows at the principal chimneys (point sources), also on a continuous basis,. Therefore Artificial neuronal networks (ANN) were the applied methodology to predict next day pollutant concentrations; due to the ANNs structure they have the ability to capture the non-linear relationships between predictor variables. Hence the first step of this study was to apply multivariate exploratory techniques to select the best predictor variables. The classification trees methodology (CART) was revealed to be the most appropriate in this case.. Results shown that pollutants atmospheric concentrations are mainly dependent on industrial emissions and a complex combination of meteorological factors and the time of the year. In the second step, the Multi

  1. Predicting the concentration of residual methanol in industrial formalin using machine learning

    OpenAIRE

    Heidkamp, William

    2016-01-01

    In this thesis, a machine learning approach was used to develop a predictive model for residual methanol concentration in industrial formalin produced at the Akzo Nobel factory in Kristinehamn, Sweden. The MATLABTM computational environment supplemented with the Statistics and Machine LearningTM toolbox from the MathWorks were used to test various machine learning algorithms on the formalin production data from Akzo Nobel. As a result, the Gaussian Process Regression algorithm was found to pr...

  2. Basic model for the prediction of 137Cs concentration in the organisms of detritus food chain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tateda, Yuzuru

    1997-01-01

    In order to predict 137 Cs concentrations in marine organisms for monitoring, a basic model for the prediction of nuclide levels in marine organisms of detritus food chain was studied. The equilibrated values of ( 137 Cs level in organism)/( 137 Cs level in seawater) derived from calculation agreed with the observed data, indicating validity of modeling conditions. The result of simulation by this basic model showed the following conclusions. 1) ''Ecological half-life'' of 137 Cs in organisms of food chain were 35 and 130 days for detritus feeder and benthic teleosts, respectively, indicating that there was no difference of the ecological half lives in organisms between in detritus food chain and in other food chains. 2) The 137 Cs concentration in organisms showed a peak at 18 and 100 days in detritus and detritus feeder, respectively, after the introduction of 137 Cs into environmental seawater. Their concentration ratios to 137 Cs peak level in seawater were within a range of 2.7-3.8, indicating insignificant difference in the response to 137 Cs change in seawater between in the organisms of detritus food chain and of other food chain. 3) The basic model studies makes it available that the prediction of 137 Cs level in organisms of food chain can be simulated in coastal ecosystem. (author)

  3. Amikacin Concentrations Predictive of Ototoxicity in Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modongo, Chawangwa; Pasipanodya, Jotam G; Zetola, Nicola M; Williams, Scott M; Sirugo, Giorgio; Gumbo, Tawanda

    2015-10-01

    Aminoglycosides, such as amikacin, are used to treat multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. However, ototoxicity is a common problem and is monitored using peak and trough amikacin concentrations based on World Health Organization recommendations. Our objective was to identify clinical factors predictive of ototoxicity using an agnostic machine learning method. We used classification and regression tree (CART) analyses to identify clinical factors, including amikacin concentration thresholds that predicted audiometry-confirmed ototoxicity among 28 multidrug-resistant pulmonary tuberculosis patients in Botswana. Amikacin concentrations were measured for all patients. The quantitative relationship between predictive factors and the probability of ototoxicity were then identified using probit analyses. The primary predictors of ototoxicity on CART analyses were cumulative days of therapy, followed by cumulative area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), which improved on the primary predictor by 87%. The area under the receiver operating curve was 0.97 on the test set. Peak and trough were not predictors in any tree. When algorithms were forced to pick peak and trough as primary predictors, the area under the receiver operating curve fell to 0.46. Probit analysis revealed that the probability of ototoxicity increased sharply starting after 6 months of therapy to near maximum at 9 months. A 10% probability of ototoxicity occurred with a threshold cumulative AUC of 87,232 days · mg · h/liter, while that of 20% occurred at 120,000 days · mg · h/liter. Thus, cumulative amikacin AUC and duration of therapy, and not peak and trough concentrations, should be used as the primary decision-making parameters to minimize the likelihood of ototoxicity in multidrug-resistant tuberculosis. Copyright © 2015, Modongo et al.

  4. Predicting redox-sensitive contaminant concentrations in groundwater using random forest classification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Gronberg, Jo Ann; Juckem, Paul F.; Miller, Matthew P.; Austin, Brian P.

    2017-08-01

    Machine learning techniques were applied to a large (n > 10,000) compliance monitoring database to predict the occurrence of several redox-active constituents in groundwater across a large watershed. Specifically, random forest classification was used to determine the probabilities of detecting elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic in the Fox, Wolf, Peshtigo, and surrounding watersheds in northeastern Wisconsin. Random forest classification is well suited to describe the nonlinear relationships observed among several explanatory variables and the predicted probabilities of elevated concentrations of nitrate, iron, and arsenic. Maps of the probability of elevated nitrate, iron, and arsenic can be used to assess groundwater vulnerability and the vulnerability of streams to contaminants derived from groundwater. Processes responsible for elevated concentrations are elucidated using partial dependence plots. For example, an increase in the probability of elevated iron and arsenic occurred when well depths coincided with the glacial/bedrock interface, suggesting a bedrock source for these constituents. Furthermore, groundwater in contact with Ordovician bedrock has a higher likelihood of elevated iron concentrations, which supports the hypothesis that groundwater liberates iron from a sulfide-bearing secondary cement horizon of Ordovician age. Application of machine learning techniques to existing compliance monitoring data offers an opportunity to broadly assess aquifer and stream vulnerability at regional and national scales and to better understand geochemical processes responsible for observed conditions.

  5. Outcome prediction value of determination of cord blood ADM concentrations in neonates with perinatal asphyxia events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Shifa; Zhou Mingxiong; Zhang Xinlu

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the clinical value of determination of cord blood adrenomedullin (ADM) concentration for predicting development of hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) in neonates suffered from perinatal asphyxia. Methods: Cord blood plasma ADM concentrations were measured with RIA in 77 full-ferm neonates with perinatal asphyxia and 30 controls. Results: In the 77 neonates with perinatal asphyxia, 32 developed clinical evidence of HIE within 7 days after birth (HIE group) and 45 didn't (non-HIE group). Cord blood plasma ADM concentrations in the HIE group (160.30 ± 41.3pg/ml) were significantly higher than those in the non-HIE group (112.26 ± 22.90 pg/ml) and controls (102.90 ± 19.43pg/ml). The cord blood plasma ADH concentrations in HIE group were also significantly positively correlated with the severity of the disease (r s = 0. 752, P < 0. 01 ). From our data, taking 117.93pg/ml as cut-off value for diagnosis of HIE would result in a sensitivity of 90.63%, specificity of 80%, and accuracy of 84.42%. Conclusion: High level of ADM in cord blood of neonates with perinatal asphyxia (≥117.93pg/ml) would predict development of HIE with a reasonable accuracy. (authors)

  6. Numerical predictions of the separation of heavy components inside the trace gas concentrator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mo, J.D.

    1995-01-01

    The component with a heavier molecular weight can be separated from the one with a lighter molecular weight in a binary mixture by applying an appropriate pressure gradient. A centrifugal force field effectively generates the required pressure gradient and a favorable flow field along the radial direction in a trace gas concentrator for such an application. This paper presents the numerical predictions of the mass separation inside a trace gas concentrator, which enriches Xenon in air. A Navier-Stokes solver in primitive variables using a pressure based algorithm has been applied to solve for the flow fields. Subsequently, the transport equations with a strong centrifugal field are solved for the mass concentration. This study is the continued effort for the proof-of-concept of centrifugal separation of components with a considerable difference in their molecular weight in a binary mixture. The significant effects of rotational speed, flow field, and the geometrical configuration on the mass separation are presented in this paper

  7. Analysis and Prediction of Energy Production in Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV Installations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Allen Barnett

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available A method for the prediction of Energy Production (EP in Concentrating Photovoltaic (CPV installations is examined in this study. It presents a new method that predicts EP by using Global Horizontal Irradiation (GHI and the Photovoltaic Geographical Information System (PVGIS database, instead of Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI data, which are rarely recorded at most locations. EP at four Spanish CPV installations is analyzed: two are based on silicon solar cells and the other two on multi-junction III-V solar cells. The real EP is compared with the predicted EP. Two methods for EP prediction are presented. In the first preliminary method, a monthly Performance Ratio (PR is used as an arbitrary constant value (75% and an estimation of the DNI. The DNI estimation is obtained from GHI measurements and the PVGIS database. In the second method, a lineal model is proposed for the first time in this paper to obtain the predicted EP from the estimated DNI. This lineal model is the regression line that correlates the real monthly EP and the estimated DNI in 2009. This new method implies that the monthly PR is variable. Using the new method, the difference between the predicted and the real EP values is less than 2% for the annual EP and is in the range of 5.6%–16.1% for the monthly EP. The method that uses the variable monthly PR allows the prediction of the EP with reasonable accuracy. It is therefore possible to predict the CPV EP for any location, using only widely available GHI data and the PVGIS database.

  8. [Application of predictive model to estimate concentrations of chemical substances in the work environment].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupczewska-Dobecka, Małgorzata; Czerczak, Sławomir; Jakubowski, Marek; Maciaszek, Piotr; Janasik, Beata

    2010-01-01

    Based on the Estimation and Assessment of Substance Exposure (EASE) predictive model implemented into the European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES 2.1.), the exposure to three chosen organic solvents: toluene, ethyl acetate and acetone was estimated and compared with the results of measurements in workplaces. Prior to validation, the EASE model was pretested using three exposure scenarios. The scenarios differed in the decision tree of pattern of use. Five substances were chosen for the test: 1,4-dioxane tert-methyl-butyl ether, diethylamine, 1,1,1-trichloroethane and bisphenol A. After testing the EASE model, the next step was the validation by estimating the exposure level and comparing it with the results of measurements in the workplace. We used the results of measurements of toluene, ethyl acetate and acetone concentrations in the work environment of a paint and lacquer factory, a shoe factory and a refinery. Three types of exposure scenarios, adaptable to the description of working conditions were chosen to estimate inhalation exposure. Comparison of calculated exposure to toluene, ethyl acetate and acetone with measurements in workplaces showed that model predictions are comparable with the measurement results. Only for low concentration ranges, the measured concentrations were higher than those predicted. EASE is a clear, consistent system, which can be successfully used as an additional component of inhalation exposure estimation. If the measurement data are available, they should be preferred to values estimated from models. In addition to inhalation exposure estimation, the EASE model makes it possible not only to assess exposure-related risk but also to predict workers' dermal exposure.

  9. Use of Artificial Neural Network Models to Predict Indicator Organism Concentrations in an Urban Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mas, D. M.; Ahlfeld, D. P.

    2004-05-01

    Forecasting stream water quality is important for numerous aspects of resource protection and management. Fecal coliform and enteroccocus are primary indicator organisms used to assess potential pathogen contamination. Consequently, modeling the occurrence and concentration of fecal coliform and enterococcus is an important tool in watershed management. In addition, analyzing the relationship between model input and predicted indicator organisms is useful for elucidating possible sources of contamination and mechanisms of transport. While many process-based, statistical, and empirical models exist for water quality prediction, artificial neural network (ANN) models are increasingly being used for forecasting of water resources variables because ANNs are often capable of modeling complex systems for which behavioral rules are either unknown or difficult to simulate. The performance of ANNs compared to more established modeling approaches such as multiple linear regression (MLR) remains an importance research question. Data collected the U.S. Geological Survey in the lower Charles River in Massachusetts, USA in 1999-2000 was examined to determine correlation between various water quality constituents and indicator organisms and to explore the relationship between rainfall characteristics and indicator organism concentrations. Using the results of the statistical analysis to guide the selection of explanatory variables, MLR was performed to develop predictive equations for wet weather and dry weather conditions. The results show that the best-performing predictor variables are generally consistent for both indicator organisms considered. In addition, the regression equations show increasing indicator organism concentrations as a function of suspended sediment concentrations and length of time since last precipitation event, suggesting accumulation and wash off as a key mechanism of pathogen transport under wet weather conditions. This research also presents the

  10. Examination of the uncertainty in air concentration predictions using Hanford field data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miller, C.W.; Fields, D.E.; Cotter, S.J.

    1986-10-01

    The accuracy of an environmental transport model is best determined by comparing model predictions with environmental measurements made under conditions similar to those assumed by the model, a process commonly referred to as model validation. Over the past several years, we have done a variety of validation studies with the popular Gaussian plume atmospheric dispersion model using data from tests conducted on the Hanford reservation. Data for short-term releases of small particles for release heights of 2 m, 56 m, and 111 m have been used. Up to six different sets of atmospheric dispersion parameters and three different atmospheric stability class specification schemes have been examined. Overall, dispersion parameters based on measurements made near Juelich, West Germany, give the best comparisons between observed and predicted air concentrations. The commonly-used vertical temperature gradient method for determining atmospheric stability class consistently gives poor results. The accuracy of air concentration predictions improves when dry deposition processes are included in the model. Further validation studies using various Hanford data sets are planned

  11. An empirical model for predicting urban roadside nitrogen dioxide concentrations in the UK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stedman, J.R.; Goodwin, J.W.L.; King, K.; Murrells, T.P.; Bush, T.J.

    2001-01-01

    significantly higher than in background locations. 21% of urban major road links are expected to have roadside NO 2 greater than or equal to 40μgm -3 in 2005 for our illustrative emissions scenario. The continuing downward trend in traffic emissions is likely to further reduce the number of links exceeding this value by 2009, with about 6% of urban major road links predicted to have concentrations higher than 40μgm -3 . The majority of these links are in the London area. The remaining links are generally confined to the most heavily trafficked roads in other big cities. (Author)

  12. Predicted nitrate and arsenic concentrations in basin-fill aquifers of the Southwestern United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anning, David W.; Paul, Angela P.; McKinney, Tim S.; Huntington, Jena M.; Bexfield, Laura M.; Thiros, Susan A.

    2012-01-01

    The National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is conducting a regional analysis of water quality in the principal aquifer systems across the United States. The Southwest Principal Aquifers (SWPA) study is building a better understanding of the susceptibility and vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers in the region to groundwater contamination by synthesizing baseline knowledge of groundwater-quality conditions in 16 basins previously studied by the NAWQA Program. The improved understanding of aquifer susceptibility and vulnerability to contamination is assisting in the development of tools that water managers can use to assess and protect the quality of groundwater resources.Human-health concerns and economic considerations associated with meeting drinking-water standards motivated a study of the vulnerability of basin-fill aquifers to nitrate con­tamination and arsenic enrichment in the southwestern United States. Statistical models were developed by using the random forest classifier algorithm to predict concentrations of nitrate and arsenic across a model grid that represents about 190,600 square miles of basin-fill aquifers in parts of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The statistical models, referred to as classifiers, reflect natural and human-related factors that affect aquifer vulnerability to contamina­tion and relate nitrate and arsenic concentrations to explana­tory variables representing local- and basin-scale measures of source, aquifer susceptibility, and geochemical conditions. The classifiers were unbiased and fit the observed data well, and misclassifications were primarily due to statistical sampling error in the training datasets.The classifiers were designed to predict concentrations to be in one of six classes for nitrate, and one of seven classes for arsenic. Each classification scheme allowed for identification of areas with concentrations that were equal to or exceeding

  13. Prediction of Individual Serum Infliximab Concentrations in Inflammatory Bowel Disease by a Bayesian Dashboard System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eser, Alexander; Primas, Christian; Reinisch, Sieglinde; Vogelsang, Harald; Novacek, Gottfried; Mould, Diane R; Reinisch, Walter

    2018-01-30

    Despite a robust exposure-response relationship of infliximab in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), attempts to adjust dosing to individually predicted serum concentrations of infliximab (SICs) are lacking. Compared with labor-intensive conventional software for pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling (eg, NONMEM) dashboards are easy-to-use programs incorporating complex Bayesian statistics to determine individual pharmacokinetics. We evaluated various infliximab detection assays and the number of samples needed to precisely forecast individual SICs using a Bayesian dashboard. We assessed long-term infliximab retention in patients being dosed concordantly versus discordantly with Bayesian dashboard recommendations. Three hundred eighty-two serum samples from 117 adult IBD patients on infliximab maintenance therapy were analyzed by 3 commercially available assays. Data from each assay was modeled using NONMEM and a Bayesian dashboard. PK parameter precision and residual variability were assessed. Forecast concentrations from both systems were compared with observed concentrations. Infliximab retention was assessed by prediction for dose intensification via Bayesian dashboard versus real-life practice. Forecast precision of SICs varied between detection assays. At least 3 SICs from a reliable assay are needed for an accurate forecast. The Bayesian dashboard performed similarly to NONMEM to predict SICs. Patients dosed concordantly with Bayesian dashboard recommendations had a significantly longer median drug survival than those dosed discordantly (51.5 versus 4.6 months, P dashboard helps to assess the diagnostic performance of infliximab detection assays. Three, not single, SICs provide sufficient information for individualized dose adjustment when incorporated into the Bayesian dashboard. Treatment adjusted to forecasted SICs is associated with longer drug retention of infliximab. © 2018, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

  14. Iodine concentration: a new, important characteristic of the spot sign that predicts haematoma expansion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fu, Fan; Sun, Shengjun; Liu, Liping; Li, Jianying; Su, Yaping; Li, Yingying

    2018-04-19

    The computed tomography angiography (CTA) spot sign is a validated predictor of haematoma expansion (HE) in spontaneous intracerebral haemorrhage (SICH). We investigated whether defining the iodine concentration (IC) inside the spot sign and the haematoma on Gemstone spectral imaging (GSI) would improve its sensitivity and specificity for predicting HE. From 2014 to 2016, we prospectively enrolled 65 SICH patients who underwent single-phase spectral CTA within 6 h. Logistic regression was performed to assess the risk factors for HE. The predictive performance of individual spot sign characteristics was examined via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The spot sign was detected in 46.1% (30/65) of patients. ROC analysis indicated that IC inside the spot sign had the greatest area under the ROC curve for HE (0.858; 95% confidence interval, 0.727-0.989; p = 0.003). Multivariate analysis found that spot sign with higher IC (i.e. IC > 7.82 100 μg/ml) was an independent predictor of HE (odds ratio = 34.27; 95% confidence interval, 5.608-209.41; p spot sign showed sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV of 0.81, 0.79, 0.73 and 0.86. Logistic regression analysis indicated that the IC in haematomas was independently associated with HE (odds ratio = 1.525; 95% confidence interval, 1.041-2.235; p = 0.030). ICs in haematoma and in spot sign were all independently associated with HE. IC analysis in spectral imaging may help to identify SICH patients for targeted haemostatic therapy. • Iodine concentration in spot sign and haematoma can predict haematoma expansion • Spectral imaging could measure the IC inside the spot sign and haematoma • IC in spot sign improved the positive predictive value (PPV) cf. CTA.

  15. Predicting heavy metal concentrations in soils and plants using field spectrophotometry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muradyan, V.; Tepanosyan, G.; Asmaryan, Sh.; Sahakyan, L.; Saghatelyan, A.; Warner, T. A.

    2017-09-01

    Aim of this study is to predict heavy metal (HM) concentrations in soils and plants using field remote sensing methods. The studied sites were an industrial town of Kajaran and city of Yerevan. The research also included sampling of soils and leaves of two tree species exposed to different pollution levels and determination of contents of HM in lab conditions. The obtained spectral values were then collated with contents of HM in Kajaran soils and the tree leaves sampled in Yerevan, and statistical analysis was done. Consequently, Zn and Pb have a negative correlation coefficient (p regression models and artificial neural network (ANN) for HM prediction were developed. Good results were obtained for the best stress sensitive spectral band ANN (R2 0.9, RPD 2.0), Simple Linear Regression (SLR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) (R2 0.7, RPD 1.4) models. Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was not applicable to predict Pb and Zn concentrations in soils in this research. Almost all full spectrum PLS models provide good calibration and validation results (RPD>1.4). Full spectrum ANN models are characterized by excellent calibration R2, rRMSE and RPD (0.9; 0.1 and >2.5 respectively). For prediction of Pb and Ni contents in plants SLR and PLS models were used. The latter provide almost the same results. Our findings indicate that it is possible to make coarse direct estimation of HM content in soils and plants using rapid and economic reflectance spectroscopy.

  16. The music of clash: predictions on the concentration-mass relation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meneghetti, M. [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Bologna, via Ranzani 1, I-40127 Bologna (Italy); Rasia, E. [Physics Department, University of Michigan, 450 Church Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109 (United States); Vega, J.; Yepes, G.; Sembolini, F. [Departamento de Fsica Terica, Universidad Autnoma de Madrid, Cantoblanco, E-28049 Madrid (Spain); Merten, J.; Ettori, S. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Postman, M.; Coe, D. [Space Telescope Science Institute, 3700 San Martin Drive, Baltimore, MD 21208 (United States); Donahue, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States); Umetsu, K.; Czakon, N. [Institute of Astronomy and Astrophysics, Academia Sinica, PO Box 23-141, Taipei 10617, Taiwan (China); Balestra, I. [INAF-Osservatorio Astronomico di Capodimonte, Via Moiariello 16, I-80131 Napoli (Italy); Bartelmann, M. [Institut fur Theoretische Astrophysik, Universität Heidelberg, Zentrum für Astronomie, Philosophenweg 12, D-69120 Heidelberg (Germany); Benítez, N. [Instituto de Astrofísica de Andalucía (CSIC), E-18080 Granada (Spain); Biviano, A. [INAF/Osservatorio Astronomico di Trieste, via G. B. Tiepolo 11, I-34143 Trieste (Italy); Bouwens, R. [Leiden Observatory, Leiden University, PO Box 9513, NL-2333 Leiden (Netherlands); Bradley, L. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, The Johns Hopkins University, 3400 North Charles Street, Baltimore, MD 21218 (United States); Broadhurst, T. [Department of Theoretical Physics and History of Science, University of the Basque Country UPV/EHU, PO Box 644, E-48080 Bilbao (Spain); De Petris, M. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Sapienza Universit di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, I-00185 Roma (Italy); and others

    2014-12-10

    We present an analysis of the MUSIC-2 N-body/hydrodynamical simulations aimed at estimating the expected concentration-mass relation for the CLASH (Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble) cluster sample. We study nearly 1,400 halos simulated at high spatial and mass resolution. We study the shape of both their density and surface-density profiles and fit them with a variety of radial functions, including the Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW), the generalized NFW, and the Einasto density profiles. We derive concentrations and masses from these fits. We produce simulated Chandra observations of the halos, and we use them to identify objects resembling the X-ray morphologies and masses of the clusters in the CLASH X-ray-selected sample. We also derive a concentration-mass relation for strong-lensing clusters. We find that the sample of simulated halos that resembles the X-ray morphology of the CLASH clusters is composed mainly of relaxed halos, but it also contains a significant fraction of unrelaxed systems. For such a heterogeneous sample we measure an average two-dimensional concentration that is ∼11% higher than is found for the full sample of simulated halos. After accounting for projection and selection effects, the average NFW concentrations of CLASH clusters are expected to be intermediate between those predicted in three dimensions for relaxed and super-relaxed halos. Matching the simulations to the individual CLASH clusters on the basis of the X-ray morphology, we expect that the NFW concentrations recovered from the lensing analysis of the CLASH clusters are in the range [3-6], with an average value of 3.87 and a standard deviation of 0.61.

  17. The music of clash: predictions on the concentration-mass relation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meneghetti, M.; Rasia, E.; Vega, J.; Yepes, G.; Sembolini, F.; Merten, J.; Ettori, S.; Postman, M.; Coe, D.; Donahue, M.; Umetsu, K.; Czakon, N.; Balestra, I.; Bartelmann, M.; Benítez, N.; Biviano, A.; Bouwens, R.; Bradley, L.; Broadhurst, T.; De Petris, M.

    2014-01-01

    We present an analysis of the MUSIC-2 N-body/hydrodynamical simulations aimed at estimating the expected concentration-mass relation for the CLASH (Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble) cluster sample. We study nearly 1,400 halos simulated at high spatial and mass resolution. We study the shape of both their density and surface-density profiles and fit them with a variety of radial functions, including the Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW), the generalized NFW, and the Einasto density profiles. We derive concentrations and masses from these fits. We produce simulated Chandra observations of the halos, and we use them to identify objects resembling the X-ray morphologies and masses of the clusters in the CLASH X-ray-selected sample. We also derive a concentration-mass relation for strong-lensing clusters. We find that the sample of simulated halos that resembles the X-ray morphology of the CLASH clusters is composed mainly of relaxed halos, but it also contains a significant fraction of unrelaxed systems. For such a heterogeneous sample we measure an average two-dimensional concentration that is ∼11% higher than is found for the full sample of simulated halos. After accounting for projection and selection effects, the average NFW concentrations of CLASH clusters are expected to be intermediate between those predicted in three dimensions for relaxed and super-relaxed halos. Matching the simulations to the individual CLASH clusters on the basis of the X-ray morphology, we expect that the NFW concentrations recovered from the lensing analysis of the CLASH clusters are in the range [3-6], with an average value of 3.87 and a standard deviation of 0.61.

  18. The MUSIC of CLASH: Predictions on the Concentration-Mass Relation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meneghetti, M.; Rasia, E.; Vega, J.; Merten, J.; Postman, M.; Yepes, G.; Sembolini, F.; Donahue, M.; Ettori, S.; Umetsu, K.; Balestra, I.; Bartelmann, M.; Benítez, N.; Biviano, A.; Bouwens, R.; Bradley, L.; Broadhurst, T.; Coe, D.; Czakon, N.; De Petris, M.; Ford, H.; Giocoli, C.; Gottlöber, S.; Grillo, C.; Infante, L.; Jouvel, S.; Kelson, D.; Koekemoer, A.; Lahav, O.; Lemze, D.; Medezinski, E.; Melchior, P.; Mercurio, A.; Molino, A.; Moscardini, L.; Monna, A.; Moustakas, J.; Moustakas, L. A.; Nonino, M.; Rhodes, J.; Rosati, P.; Sayers, J.; Seitz, S.; Zheng, W.; Zitrin, A.

    2014-12-01

    We present an analysis of the MUSIC-2 N-body/hydrodynamical simulations aimed at estimating the expected concentration-mass relation for the CLASH (Cluster Lensing and Supernova Survey with Hubble) cluster sample. We study nearly 1,400 halos simulated at high spatial and mass resolution. We study the shape of both their density and surface-density profiles and fit them with a variety of radial functions, including the Navarro-Frenk-White (NFW), the generalized NFW, and the Einasto density profiles. We derive concentrations and masses from these fits. We produce simulated Chandra observations of the halos, and we use them to identify objects resembling the X-ray morphologies and masses of the clusters in the CLASH X-ray-selected sample. We also derive a concentration-mass relation for strong-lensing clusters. We find that the sample of simulated halos that resembles the X-ray morphology of the CLASH clusters is composed mainly of relaxed halos, but it also contains a significant fraction of unrelaxed systems. For such a heterogeneous sample we measure an average two-dimensional concentration that is ~11% higher than is found for the full sample of simulated halos. After accounting for projection and selection effects, the average NFW concentrations of CLASH clusters are expected to be intermediate between those predicted in three dimensions for relaxed and super-relaxed halos. Matching the simulations to the individual CLASH clusters on the basis of the X-ray morphology, we expect that the NFW concentrations recovered from the lensing analysis of the CLASH clusters are in the range [3-6], with an average value of 3.87 and a standard deviation of 0.61.

  19. Indoor Radon Concentration Related to Different Radon Areas and Indoor Radon Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juhásová Šenitková, Ingrid; Šál, Jiří

    2017-12-01

    Indoor radon has been observed in the buildings at areas with different radon risk potential. Preventive measures are based on control of main potential radon sources (soil gas, building material and supplied water) to avoid building of new houses above recommended indoor radon level 200 Bq/m3. Radon risk (index) estimation of individual building site bedrock in case of new house siting and building protection according technical building code are obligatory. Remedial actions in buildings built at high radon risk areas were carried out principally by unforced ventilation and anti-radon insulation. Significant differences were found in the level of radon concentration between rooms where radon reduction techniques were designed and those where it was not designed. The mathematical model based on radon exhalation from soil has been developed to describe the physical processes determining indoor radon concentration. The model is focused on combined radon diffusion through the slab and advection through the gap from sub-slab soil. In this model, radon emanated from building materials is considered not having a significant contribution to indoor radon concentration. Dimensional analysis and Gauss-Newton nonlinear least squares parametric regression were used to simplify the problem, identify essential input variables and find parameter values. The presented verification case study is introduced for real buildings with respect to various underground construction types. Presented paper gives picture of possible mathematical approach to indoor radon concentration prediction.

  20. Predicting age at menopause from serum antimüllerian hormone concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tehrani, Fahimeh Ramezani; Shakeri, Nezhat; Solaymani-Dodaran, Masoud; Azizi, Fereidoun

    2011-07-01

    We aimed to estimate age at menopause using serum antimüllerian hormone (AMH) concentration. We randomly selected 266 study participants from a pool of 1,265 eligible women in the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study cohort. We measured AMH levels three times at about 3-year intervals. There were 63 occurrences of menopause in our participants over an average of 6-year follow-up. We built an accelerated failure time model using serum AMH level at the start of follow-up to estimate age at menopause. The goodness of fit for the model was tested using Cox-Snell residuals and the Bland-Altman plot. We estimated ages at menopause for different levels of serum AMH concentration among women aged 20 to 49 years. For those who reached menopause, serum AMH concentrations about 6 years before the event provided fairly accurate estimates of the age at menopause. The Bland-Altman plot showed an acceptable agreement between predicted and observed values. Serum AMH concentrations can reasonably forecast the age at menopause for individual women.

  1. Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium-137 concentration ratios for saltwater fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinder, John E.; Rowan, David J.; Smith, Jim T.

    2016-01-01

    Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to develop a regression model to predict "1"3"7Cs concentration ratios for saltwater fish. Predictions were developed from 1) numeric trophic levels computed primarily from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the saltwater for 65 samplings from 41 different species from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. A number of different models were initially developed and evaluated for accuracy which was assessed as the ratios of independently measured concentration ratios to those predicted by the model. In contrast to freshwater systems, were K concentrations are highly variable and are an important factor in affecting fish concentration ratios, the less variable K concentrations in saltwater were relatively unimportant in affecting concentration ratios. As a result, the simplest model, which used only trophic level as a predictor, had comparable accuracies to more complex models that also included K concentrations. A test of model accuracy involving comparisons of 56 published concentration ratios from 51 species of marine fish to those predicted by the model indicated that 52 of the predicted concentration ratios were within a factor of 2 of the observed concentration ratios. - Highlights: • We developed a model to predict concentration ratios (C_r) for saltwater fish. • The model requires only a single input variable to predict C_r. • That variable is a mean numeric trophic level available at (fishbase.org). • The K concentrations in seawater were not an important predictor variable. • The median-to observed ratio for 56 independently measured C_r was 0.83.

  2. Predicting pollutant concentrations in the water column during dredging operations: Implications for sediment quality criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wasserman, Julio Cesar; Wasserman, Maria Angélica V.; Barrocas, Paulo Rubens G.; Almeida, Aline Mansur

    2016-01-01

    The development of new dredging techniques that can reduce, or at least predict, the environmental impacts, is in high demand by governments in developing countries. In the present work, a new methodology was developed, to evaluate the level of metals contamination (i.e. cadmium, lead and zinc) of the water column, during a dredging operation. This methodology was used to evaluate the impacts of the construction of a new maritime terminal in Sepetiba Bay, Brazil. The methodology quantifies the amount of resuspended sediments and calculates the expected contaminants concentrations in the water column. The results indicated that sediment quality criteria were not compatible with water quality criteria, because the dredging of contaminated sediments does not necessarily yield contaminated water. It is suggested that the use of sediment quality criteria for dredging operations might be abandoned, and the methodology presented in this study applied to assess dredging's environmental impacts, predicting water contamination levels. - Graphical abstract: A graphic model showing transference of contaminants from the sediments to the water column. The dark sediment area represents the dredged sediments and the arrows emerging from them represent the resuspended sediments affecting the water column. - Highlights: •Developing countries demand for new dredging projects. •A new model evaluates concentrations of metals in the water, caused by dredging. •The model shows that water and sediment quality criteria are not compatible. •Local hydrodynamics have a strong influence on the contamination of the water. •Management of dredging operations reduces environmental contamination.

  3. Predictive Modelling of Concentration of Dispersed Natural Gas in a Single Room

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulfatai JIMOH

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper aimed at developing a mathematical model equation to predict the concentration of natural gas in a single room. The model equation was developed by using theoretical method of predictive modelling. The model equation developed is as given in equation 28. The validity of the developed expression was tested through the simulation of experimental results using computer software called MathCAD Professional. Both experimental and simulated results were found to be in close agreement. The statistical analysis carried out through the correlation coefficients for the results of experiment 1, 2, 3 and 4 were found to be 0.9986, 1.0000, 0.9981 and 0.9999 respectively, which imply reasonable close fittings between the experimental and simulated concentrations of dispersed natural gas within the room. Thus, the model equation developed can be considered a good representation of the phenomena that occurred when there is a leakage or accidental release of such gas within the room.

  4. Prediction of traffic-related nitrogen oxides concentrations using Structural Time-Series models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawson, Anneka Ruth; Ghosh, Bidisha; Broderick, Brian

    2011-09-01

    Ambient air quality monitoring, modeling and compliance to the standards set by European Union (EU) directives and World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines are required to ensure the protection of human and environmental health. Congested urban areas are most susceptible to traffic-related air pollution which is the most problematic source of air pollution in Ireland. Long-term continuous real-time monitoring of ambient air quality at such urban centers is essential but often not realistic due to financial and operational constraints. Hence, the development of a resource-conservative ambient air quality monitoring technique is essential to ensure compliance with the threshold values set by the standards. As an intelligent and advanced statistical methodology, a Structural Time Series (STS) based approach has been introduced in this paper to develop a parsimonious and computationally simple air quality model. In STS methodology, the different components of a time-series dataset such as the trend, seasonal, cyclical and calendar variations can be modeled separately. To test the effectiveness of the proposed modeling strategy, average hourly concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen oxides from a congested urban arterial in Dublin city center were modeled using STS methodology. The prediction error estimates from the developed air quality model indicate that the STS model can be a useful tool in predicting nitrogen dioxide and nitrogen oxides concentrations in urban areas and will be particularly useful in situations where the information on external variables such as meteorology or traffic volume is not available.

  5. Prediction of hydrogen concentration in nuclear power plant containment under severe accidents using cascaded fuzzy neural networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Choi, Geon Pil; Kim, Dong Yeong; Yoo, Kwae Hwan; Na, Man Gyun, E-mail: magyna@chosun.ac.kr

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • We present a hydrogen-concentration prediction method in an NPP containment. • The cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN) is used in this prediction model. • The CFNN model is much better than the existing FNN model. • This prediction can help prevent severe accidents in NPP due to hydrogen explosion. - Abstract: Recently, severe accidents in nuclear power plants (NPPs) have attracted worldwide interest since the Fukushima accident. If the hydrogen concentration in an NPP containment is increased above 4% in atmospheric pressure, hydrogen combustion will likely occur. Therefore, the hydrogen concentration must be kept below 4%. This study presents the prediction of hydrogen concentration using cascaded fuzzy neural network (CFNN). The CFNN model repeatedly applies FNN modules that are serially connected. The CFNN model was developed using data on severe accidents in NPPs. The data were obtained by numerically simulating the accident scenarios using the MAAP4 code for optimized power reactor 1000 (OPR1000) because real severe accident data cannot be obtained from actual NPP accidents. The root-mean-square error level predicted by the CFNN model is below approximately 5%. It was confirmed that the CFNN model could accurately predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment. If NPP operators can predict the hydrogen concentration in the containment using the CFNN model, this prediction can assist them in preventing a hydrogen explosion.

  6. Predicting PM10 concentration in Seoul metropolitan subway stations using artificial neural network (ANN).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Sechan; Kim, Minjeong; Kim, Minhae; Namgung, Hyeong-Gyu; Kim, Ki-Tae; Cho, Kyung Hwa; Kwon, Soon-Bark

    2018-01-05

    The indoor air quality of subway systems can significantly affect the health of passengers since these systems are widely used for short-distance transit in metropolitan urban areas in many countries. The particles generated by abrasion during subway operations and the vehicle-emitted pollutants flowing in from the street in particular affect the air quality in underground subway stations. Thus the continuous monitoring of particulate matter (PM) in underground station is important to evaluate the exposure level of PM to passengers. However, it is difficult to obtain indoor PM data because the measurement systems are expensive and difficult to install and operate for significant periods of time in spaces crowded with people. In this study, we predicted the indoor PM concentration using the information of outdoor PM, the number of subway trains running, and information on ventilation operation by the artificial neural network (ANN) model. As well, we investigated the relationship between ANN's performance and the depth of underground subway station. ANN model showed a high correlation between the predicted and actual measured values and it was able to predict 67∼80% of PM at 6 subway station. In addition, we found that platform shape and depth influenced the model performance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  7. Point Spectroscopy System for Noncontact and Noninvasive Prediction of Transcutaneous Bilirubin Concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, P. E.; K. C Huong, Audrey

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents the use of a point spectroscopy system to determine one’s transcutaneous bilirubin level using Modified Lambert Beer model and the developed fitting routine. This technique required a priori knowledge of extinction coefficient of bilirubin and hemoglobin components in the wavelength range of 440-500 nm for the prediction of the required parameter value. This work was conducted on different skin sites of six healthy Asians namely on the thenar region of the palm of their hand, back of the hand, posterior and anterior forearm. The obtained results revealed the lowest mean transcutaneous bilirubin concentration of 0.44±0.3 g/l predicted for palm site while the highest bilirubin level of 0.98±0.2 g/l was estimated for posterior forearm. These values were also compared with that presented in the literature. This study found considerably good consistency in the value predicted for different subjects especially at the thenar region of the palm. This work concluded that the proposed system and technique may be suitably served as an alternative means to noncontact and noninvasive measurement of one’s transcutaneous bilirubin level at palm site.

  8. Using ANN and EPR models to predict carbon monoxide concentrations in urban area of Tabriz

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Shakerkhatibi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Forecasting of air pollutants has become a popular topic of environmental research today. For this purpose, the artificial neural network (AAN technique is widely used as a reliable method for forecasting air pollutants in urban areas. On the other hand, the evolutionary polynomial regression (EPR model has recently been used as a forecasting tool in some environmental issues. In this research, we compared the ability of these models to forecast carbon monoxide (CO concentrations in the urban area of Tabriz city. Methods: The dataset of CO concentrations measured at the fixed stations operated by the East Azerbaijan Environmental Office along with meteorological data obtained from the East Azerbaijan Meteorological Bureau from March 2007 to March 2013, were used as input for the ANN and EPR models. Results: Based on the results, the performance of ANN is more reliable in comparison with EPR. Using the ANN model, the correlation coefficient values at all monitoring stations were calculated above 0.85. Conversely, the R2 values for these stations were obtained <0.41 using the EPR model. Conclusion: The EPR model could not overcome the nonlinearities of input data. However, the ANN model displayed more accurate results compared to the EPR. Hence, the ANN models are robust tools for predicting air pollutant concentrations.

  9. Surgical removal versus retention for the management of asymptomatic disease-free impacted wisdom teeth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghaeminia, H.; Perry, J.; Nienhuijs, M.E.L.; Toedtling, V.; Tummers, M.J.; Hoppenreijs, T.J.; Sanden, W.J.M. van der; Mettes, T.G.P.H.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prophylactic removal of asymptomatic disease-free impacted wisdom teeth is surgical removal of wisdom teeth in the absence of symptoms and with no evidence of local disease. Impacted wisdom teeth may be associated with pathological changes, such as pericoronitis, root resorption, gum and

  10. An introduction to predictive modelling of drug concentration in anaesthesia monitors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeCou, J; Johnson, K

    2017-01-01

    A significant amount of anaesthetists' work involves the prediction of drug effects and interactions to produce a smooth general anaesthetic that minimises drug side effects and promotes rapid emergence. Successfully managing this process requires a basic understanding of drug effects, experience and inevitably some guesswork, since it is difficult (and in some cases impossible) to anticipate all relevant patient and surgical factors. Although data are generally available to allow calculation of plasma drug and effect site concentrations, this is often difficult to apply in complex clinical contexts, particularly when multiple drug types are used. In recent years, manufacturers have developed and incorporated into anaesthetic workstations technologies that use drug pharmacodynamic and pharmacokinetic data to predict drug effects and interactions. Such systems can predict the duration and effects of drugs during anaesthesia and assist the anaesthetist to understand complex drug interactions. With this information available, different drug types, doses and combinations may be tailored in a scientific way to maximise useful effects whilst minimising overdose and side-effects, particularly in high-risk patients. Examples are used to illustrate how such systems can be used in practice, and how drug effects and interactions can be simulated to "rehearse" an anaesthetic before any drugs are actually administered. At present only a small number of anaesthetic workstations use this technology, and as yet they are not able to manage all drugs used in anaesthetic practice. However, such systems have the potential to help anaesthetists manage the complexity of their work, and to provide information on predicted drug effects in a way that is useful and relevant to both experienced anaesthetists and trainees. © 2017 The Association of Anaesthetists of Great Britain and Ireland.

  11. Predicting arsenic concentrations in groundwater of San Luis Valley, Colorado: implications for individual-level lifetime exposure assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Katherine A; Meliker, Jaymie R; Buttenfield, Barbara E; Byers, Tim; Zerbe, Gary O; Hokanson, John E; Marshall, Julie A

    2014-08-01

    Consumption of inorganic arsenic in drinking water at high levels has been associated with chronic diseases. Risk is less clear at lower levels of arsenic, in part due to difficulties in estimating exposure. Herein we characterize spatial and temporal variability of arsenic concentrations and develop models for predicting aquifer arsenic concentrations in the San Luis Valley, Colorado, an area of moderately elevated arsenic in groundwater. This study included historical water samples with total arsenic concentrations from 595 unique well locations. A longitudinal analysis established temporal stability in arsenic levels in individual wells. The mean arsenic levels for a random sample of 535 wells were incorporated into five kriging models to predict groundwater arsenic concentrations at any point in time. A separate validation dataset (n = 60 wells) was used to identify the model with strongest predictability. Findings indicate that arsenic concentrations are temporally stable (r = 0.88; 95 % CI 0.83-0.92 for samples collected from the same well 15-25 years apart) and the spatial model created using ordinary kriging best predicted arsenic concentrations (ρ = 0.72 between predicted and observed validation data). These findings illustrate the value of geostatistical modeling of arsenic and suggest the San Luis Valley is a good region for conducting epidemiologic studies of groundwater metals because of the ability to accurately predict variation in groundwater arsenic concentrations.

  12. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogen species in chlorinated saline cooling waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lietzke, M.H.; Haag, W.R.

    1979-01-01

    A kinetic model for predicting the composition of chlorinated water discharged from power plants using fresh water for cooling was previously reported. The model has now been extended to be applicable to power plants located on estuaries or on the seacoast where saline water is used for cooling purposes. When chloride is added to seawater to prevent biofouling in cooling systems, bromine is liberated. Since this reaction proceeds at a finite rate there is a competition between the bromine (i.e., hypobromous acid) and the added chlorine (i.e., hypochlorous acid) for halogenation of any amine species present in the water. Hence not only chloramines but also bromamines and bromochloramines will be formed, with the relative concentrations a function of the pH, temperature, and salinity of the water. The kinetic model takes into account the chemical reactions leading to the formation and disappearance of the more important halamines and hypohalous acids likely to be encountered in chlorinated saline water

  13. Intra-Operative Amylase Concentration in Peri-Pancreatic Fluid Predicts Pancreatic Fistula After Distal Pancreatectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nahm, Christopher B; de Reuver, Philip R; Hugh, Thomas J; Pearson, Andrew; Gill, Anthony J; Samra, Jaswinder S; Mittal, Anubhav

    2017-06-01

    Post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) is a potentially severe complication following distal pancreatectomy. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of intra-operative amylase concentration (IOAC) in peri-pancreatic fluid after distal pancreatectomy for the diagnosis of POPF. Consecutive patients who underwent a distal pancreatectomy between November 2014 and September 2016 were included in the analysis. IOAC was measured, followed by drain fluid analysis for amylase on post-operative days (PODs) 1, 3, and 5. Receiver operator characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to evaluate the discriminative capacity of IOAC as a predictor of POPF. IOAC was measured after distal pancreatectomy in 26 patients. The IOAC correlated significantly with (i) PODs 1, 3, and 5 drain amylase (p  1000 experienced a post-operative complication (OR 18.3, 95% CI 2.51-103, p pancreatectomy.

  14. Importance of critical micellar concentration for the prediction of solubility enhancement in biorelevant media.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ottaviani, G; Wendelspiess, S; Alvarez-Sánchez, R

    2015-04-06

    This study evaluated if the intrinsic surface properties of compounds are related to the solubility enhancement (SE) typically observed in biorelevant media like fasted state simulated intestinal fluids (FaSSIF). The solubility of 51 chemically diverse compounds was measured in FaSSIF and in phosphate buffer and the surface activity parameters were determined. This study showed that the compound critical micellar concentration parameter (CMC) correlates strongly with the solubility enhancement (SE) observed in FaSSIF compared to phosphate buffer. Thus, the intrinsic capacity of molecules to form micelles is also a determinant for each compound's affinity to the micelles of biorelevant surfactants. CMC correlated better with SE than lipophilicity (logD), especially over the logD range typically covered by drugs (2 < logD < 4). CMC can become useful to guide drug discovery scientists to better diagnose, improve, and predict solubility in biorelevant media, thereby enhancing oral bioavailability of drug candidates.

  15. Flexing the PECs: Predicting environmental concentrations of veterinary drugs in Canadian agricultural soils.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kullik, Sigrun A; Belknap, Andrew M

    2017-03-01

    Veterinary drugs administered to food animals primarily enter ecosystems through the application of livestock waste to agricultural land. Although veterinary drugs are essential for protecting animal health, their entry into the environment may pose a risk for nontarget organisms. A means to predict environmental concentrations of new veterinary drug ingredients in soil is required to assess their environmental fate, distribution, and potential effects. The Canadian predicted environmental concentrations in soil (PECsoil) for new veterinary drug ingredients for use in intensively reared animals is based on the approach currently used by the European Medicines Agency for VICH Phase I environmental assessments. The calculation for the European Medicines Agency PECsoil can be adapted to account for regional animal husbandry and land use practices. Canadian agricultural practices for intensively reared cattle, pigs, and poultry differ substantially from those in the European Union. The development of PECsoil default values and livestock categories representative of typical Canadian animal production methods and nutrient management practices culminates several years of research and an extensive survey and analysis of the scientific literature, Canadian agricultural statistics, national and provincial management recommendations, veterinary product databases, and producers. A PECsoil can be used to rapidly identify new veterinary drugs intended for intensive livestock production that should undergo targeted ecotoxicity and fate testing. The Canadian PECsoil model is readily available, transparent, and requires minimal inputs to generate a screening level environmental assessment for veterinary drugs that can be refined if additional data are available. PECsoil values for a hypothetical veterinary drug dosage regimen are presented and discussed in an international context. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:331-341. © 2016 Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada

  16. Variation in predicted internal concentrations in relation to PBPK model complexity for rainbow trout

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salmina, E.S.; Wondrousch, D. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Institute for Organic Chemistry, Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg, Leipziger Str. 29, 09596 Freiberg (Germany); Kühne, R. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Potemkin, V.A. [Department of Chemistry, South Ural State Medical University, Vorovskogo 64, 454048, Chelyabinsk (Russian Federation); Schüürmann, G. [UFZ Department of Ecological Chemistry, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Permoserstr. 15, 04318 Leipzig (Germany); Institute for Organic Chemistry, Technical University Bergakademie Freiberg, Leipziger Str. 29, 09596 Freiberg (Germany)

    2016-04-15

    The present study is motivated by the increasing demand to consider internal partitioning into tissues instead of exposure concentrations for the environmental toxicity assessment. To this end, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can be applied. We evaluated the variation in accuracy of PBPK model outcomes depending on tissue constituents modeled as sorptive phases and chemical distribution tendencies addressed by molecular descriptors. The model performance was examined using data from 150 experiments for 28 chemicals collected from US EPA databases. The simplest PBPK model is based on the “K{sub ow}-lipid content” approach as being traditional for environmental toxicology. The most elaborated one considers five biological sorptive phases (polar and non-polar lipids, water, albumin and the remaining proteins) and makes use of LSER (linear solvation energy relationship) parameters to describe the compound partitioning behavior. The “K{sub ow}-lipid content”-based PBPK model shows more than one order of magnitude difference in predicted and measured values for 37% of the studied exposure experiments while for the most elaborated model this happens only for 7%. It is shown that further improvements could be achieved by introducing corrections for metabolic biotransformation and compound transmission hindrance through a cellular membrane. The analysis of the interface distribution tendencies shows that polar tissue constituents, namely water, polar lipids and proteins, play an important role in the accumulation behavior of polar compounds with H-bond donating functional groups. For compounds without H-bond donating fragments preferable accumulation phases are storage lipids and water depending on compound polarity. - Highlights: • For reliable predictions, models of a certain complexity should be compared. • For reliable predictions non-lipid fish tissue constituents should be considered. • H-donor compounds preferably accumulate in water

  17. Variation in predicted internal concentrations in relation to PBPK model complexity for rainbow trout

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salmina, E.S.; Wondrousch, D.; Kühne, R.; Potemkin, V.A.; Schüürmann, G.

    2016-01-01

    The present study is motivated by the increasing demand to consider internal partitioning into tissues instead of exposure concentrations for the environmental toxicity assessment. To this end, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models can be applied. We evaluated the variation in accuracy of PBPK model outcomes depending on tissue constituents modeled as sorptive phases and chemical distribution tendencies addressed by molecular descriptors. The model performance was examined using data from 150 experiments for 28 chemicals collected from US EPA databases. The simplest PBPK model is based on the “K_o_w-lipid content” approach as being traditional for environmental toxicology. The most elaborated one considers five biological sorptive phases (polar and non-polar lipids, water, albumin and the remaining proteins) and makes use of LSER (linear solvation energy relationship) parameters to describe the compound partitioning behavior. The “K_o_w-lipid content”-based PBPK model shows more than one order of magnitude difference in predicted and measured values for 37% of the studied exposure experiments while for the most elaborated model this happens only for 7%. It is shown that further improvements could be achieved by introducing corrections for metabolic biotransformation and compound transmission hindrance through a cellular membrane. The analysis of the interface distribution tendencies shows that polar tissue constituents, namely water, polar lipids and proteins, play an important role in the accumulation behavior of polar compounds with H-bond donating functional groups. For compounds without H-bond donating fragments preferable accumulation phases are storage lipids and water depending on compound polarity. - Highlights: • For reliable predictions, models of a certain complexity should be compared. • For reliable predictions non-lipid fish tissue constituents should be considered. • H-donor compounds preferably accumulate in water, polar

  18. Predicting decadal trends in cloud droplet number concentration using reanalysis and satellite data

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Daniel T.; Bender, Frida A.-M.; Grosvenor, Daniel P.; Mohrmann, Johannes K.; Hartmann, Dennis L.; Wood, Robert; Field, Paul R.

    2018-02-01

    Cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is the key state variable that moderates the relationship between aerosol and the radiative forcing arising from aerosol-cloud interactions. Uncertainty related to the effect of anthropogenic aerosol on cloud properties represents the largest uncertainty in total anthropogenic radiative forcing. Here we show that regionally averaged time series of the Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observed CDNC of low, liquid-topped clouds is well predicted by the MERRA2 reanalysis near-surface sulfate mass concentration over decadal timescales. A multiple linear regression between MERRA2 reanalyses masses of sulfate (SO4), black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), sea salt (SS), and dust (DU) shows that CDNC across many different regimes can be reproduced by a simple power-law fit to near-surface SO4, with smaller contributions from BC, OC, SS, and DU. This confirms previous work using a less sophisticated retrieval of CDNC on monthly timescales. The analysis is supported by an examination of remotely sensed sulfur dioxide (SO2) over maritime volcanoes and the east coasts of North America and Asia, revealing that maritime CDNC responds to changes in SO2 as observed by the ozone monitoring instrument (OMI). This investigation of aerosol reanalysis and top-down remote-sensing observations reveals that emission controls in Asia and North America have decreased CDNC in their maritime outflow on a decadal timescale.

  19. A Calibration to Predict Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide by Prompt Gamma Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narlesky, J.E.; Kelly, E.J.; Foster, L.A.

    2005-01-01

    Prompt gamma (PG) analysis has been used to identify the presence of certain impurities in plutonium oxide, which has been stored in 3013 containers. A regression analysis was used to evaluate the trends between the count rates obtained from PG analysis and the concentration of the impurities in plutonium oxide samples measured by analytical chemistry techniques. The results of the analysis were used to obtain calibration curves, which may be used to predict the concentration of Al, Be, Cl, F, Mg, and Na in the 3013 containers. The scatter observed in the data resulted from several factors including sample geometry, error in sampling for chemical assay, statistical counting error, and intimacy of mixing of impurities and plutonium. Standards prepared by mixing plutonium oxide with CaF 2 , NaCl, and KCl show that intimacy mixing and sampling error have the largest influence on the results. Although these factors are difficult to control, the calibrations are expected to yield semiquantitative results that are sufficient for the purpose of ordering or ranking

  20. Predicting the activity coefficients of free-solvent for concentrated globular protein solutions using independently determined physical parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devin W McBride

    Full Text Available The activity coefficient is largely considered an empirical parameter that was traditionally introduced to correct the non-ideality observed in thermodynamic systems such as osmotic pressure. Here, the activity coefficient of free-solvent is related to physically realistic parameters and a mathematical expression is developed to directly predict the activity coefficients of free-solvent, for aqueous protein solutions up to near-saturation concentrations. The model is based on the free-solvent model, which has previously been shown to provide excellent prediction of the osmotic pressure of concentrated and crowded globular proteins in aqueous solutions up to near-saturation concentrations. Thus, this model uses only the independently determined, physically realizable quantities: mole fraction, solvent accessible surface area, and ion binding, in its prediction. Predictions are presented for the activity coefficients of free-solvent for near-saturated protein solutions containing either bovine serum albumin or hemoglobin. As a verification step, the predictability of the model for the activity coefficient of sucrose solutions was evaluated. The predicted activity coefficients of free-solvent are compared to the calculated activity coefficients of free-solvent based on osmotic pressure data. It is observed that the predicted activity coefficients are increasingly dependent on the solute-solvent parameters as the protein concentration increases to near-saturation concentrations.

  1. Basal concentrations of oestradiol may predict the outcome of in-vitro maturation in regularly menstruating women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mikkelsen, A L; Andersson, A M; Skakkebaek, N E

    2001-01-01

    Retrospectively it was examined whether the number of retrieved oocytes, the maturation rate and cleavage rate can be predicted in regularly menstruating women by the use of the following predictive variables on cycle day 3-4: the concentration of FSH, oestradiol, inhibin B and inhibin A in serum...

  2. A Generic Multi-Compartmental CNS Distribution Model Structure for 9 Drugs Allows Prediction of Human Brain Target Site Concentrations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yamamoto, Yumi; Valitalo, Pyry A.; van den Berg, Dirk-Jan; Hartman, Robin; van den Brink, Willem; Wong, Yin Cheong; Huntjens, Dymphy R.; Proost, Johannes H.; Vermeulen, An; Krauwinkel, Walter; Bakshi, Suruchi; Aranzana-Climent, Vincent; Marchand, Sandrine; Dahyot-Fizelier, Claire; Couet, William; Danhof, Meindert; van Hasselt, Johan G. C.; de lange, Elizabeth C. M.

    Purpose Predicting target site drug concentration in the brain is of key importance for the successful development of drugs acting on the central nervous system. We propose a generic mathematical model to describe the pharmacokinetics in brain compartments, and apply this model to predict human

  3. Development and evaluation of a regression-based model to predict cesium concentration ratios for freshwater fish

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pinder, John E.; Rowan, David J.; Rasmussen, Joseph B.; Smith, Jim T.; Hinton, Thomas G.; Whicker, F.W.

    2014-01-01

    Data from published studies and World Wide Web sources were combined to produce and test a regression model to predict Cs concentration ratios for freshwater fish species. The accuracies of predicted concentration ratios, which were computed using 1) species trophic levels obtained from random resampling of known food items and 2) K concentrations in the water for 207 fish from 44 species and 43 locations, were tested against independent observations of ratios for 57 fish from 17 species from 25 locations. Accuracy was assessed as the percent of observed to predicted ratios within factors of 2 or 3. Conservatism, expressed as the lack of under prediction, was assessed as the percent of observed to predicted ratios that were less than 2 or less than 3. The model's median observed to predicted ratio was 1.26, which was not significantly different from 1, and 50% of the ratios were between 0.73 and 1.85. The percentages of ratios within factors of 2 or 3 were 67 and 82%, respectively. The percentages of ratios that were <2 or <3 were 79 and 88%, respectively. An example for Perca fluviatilis demonstrated that increased prediction accuracy could be obtained when more detailed knowledge of diet was available to estimate trophic level. - Highlights: • We developed a model to predict Cs concentration ratios for freshwater fish species. • The model uses only two variables to predict a species CR for any location. • One variable is the K concentration in the freshwater. • The other is a species mean trophic level measure easily obtained from (fishbase.org). • The median observed to predicted ratio for 57 independent test cases was 1.26

  4. Prediction of clearance, volume of distribution and half-life by allometric scaling and by use of plasma concentrations predicted from pharmacokinetic constants: a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahmood, I

    1999-08-01

    Pharmacokinetic parameters (clearance, CL, volume of distribution in the central compartment, VdC, and elimination half-life, t1/2beta) predicted by an empirical allometric approach have been compared with parameters predicted from plasma concentrations calculated by use of the pharmacokinetic constants A, B, alpha and beta, where A and B are the intercepts on the Y axis of the plot of plasma concentration against time and alpha and beta are the rate constants, both pairs of constants being for the distribution and elimination phases, respectively. The pharmacokinetic parameters of cefpiramide, actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol, moxalactam and ciprofloxacin were scaled from animal data obtained from the literature. Three methods were used to generate plots for the prediction of clearance in man: dependence of clearance on body weight (simple allometric equation); dependence of the product of clearance and maximum life-span potential (MLP) on body weight; and dependence of the product of clearance and brain weight on body weight. Plasma concentrations of the drugs were predicted in man by use of A, B, alpha and beta obtained from animal data. The predicted plasma concentrations were then used to calculate CL, VdC and t1/2beta. The pharmacokinetic parameters predicted by use of both approaches were compared with measured values. The results indicate that simple allometry did not predict clearance satisfactorily for actisomide, troglitazone, procaterol and ciprofloxacin. Use of MLP or the product of clearance and brain weight improved the prediction of clearance for these four drugs. Except for troglitazone, VdC and t1/2beta predicted for man by use of the allometric approach were comparable with measured values for the drugs studied. CL, VdC and t1/2beta predicted by use of pharmacokinetic constants were comparable with values predicted by simple allometry. Thus, if simple allometry failed to predict clearance of a drug, so did the pharmacokinetic constant

  5. Disease-free survival after complete mesocolic excision compared with conventional colon cancer surgery

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bertelsen, Claus Anders; Neuenschwander, Anders Ulrich; Jansen, Jens Erik

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Application of the principles of total mesorectal excision to colon cancer by undertaking complete mesocolic excision (CME) has been proposed to improve oncological outcomes. We aimed to investigate whether implementation of CME improved disease-free survival compared with conventional...... consisted of patients who underwent CME surgery in a centre validated to perform such surgery; the control group consisted of patients undergoing conventional colon resection in three other hospitals. Data were collected from the Danish Colorectal Cancer Group (DCCG) database and medical charts. Patients...... updated by the National Central Office of Civil Registration. FINDINGS: The CME group consisted of 364 patients and the non-CME group consisted of 1031 patients. For all patients, 4-year disease-free survival was 85.8% (95% CI 81.4-90.1) after CME and 75.9% (72.2-79.7) after non-CME surgery (log-rank p=0...

  6. Prediabetes and prehypertension in disease free obese adults correlate with an exacerbated systemic proinflammatory milieu

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johnson William D

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Obesity is a pro-inflammatory state frequently associated with widespread metabolic alterations that include insulin resistance and deregulation of blood pressure (BP. This cascade of events in some measure explains the susceptibility of obese adults for co-morbid conditions like diabetes mellitus and hypertension. Hypothesis We hypothesized that an elevated systemic proinflammatory burden correlates with dysglycemia and deregulated blood pressure. Methods We analyzed the screening anthropometric and laboratory measures from healthy disease free obese adults (n = 35; women (W 27, men (M 8 in a weight loss study. Results Healthy obese normoglycemic (fasting serum glucose: FSG Conclusions In otherwise healthy disease free obese adults, a higher degree of systemic inflammation is associated with prediabetes and prehypertension.

  7. Vegetative biomass predicts inflorescence production along a CO2 concentration gradient in mesic grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fay, P. A.; Collins, H.; Polley, W.

    2016-12-01

    Atmospheric CO2 concentration will likely exceed 500 µL L-1 by 2050, often increasing plant community productivity in part by increasing abundance of species favored by increased CA . Whether increased abundance translates to increased inflorescence production is poorly understood, and is important because it indicates the potential effects of CO2 enrichment on genetic variability and the potential for evolutionary change in future generations. We examined whether the responses of inflorescence production to CO2 enrichment in four C4 grasses and a C3 forb were predicted their vegetative biomass, and by soil moisture, soil nitrogen, or light availability. Inflorescence production was studied in a long-term CO2 concentration gradient spanning pre-industrial to anticipated mid-21st century values (250 - 500 µL L-1) maintained on clay, silty clay and sandy loam soils common in the U.S. Southern Plains. We expected that CO2 enrichment would increase inflorescence production, and more so with higher water, nitrogen, or light availability. However, structural equation modeling revealed that vegetative biomass was the single consistent direct predictor of flowering for all species (p grass) and Solidago canadensis (C3 forb), direct CO2 effects on flowering were only weakly mediated by indirect effects of soil water content and soil NO3-N availability. For the decreasing species (Bouteloua curtipendula, C4 grass), the negative CO2-flowering relationship was cancelled (p = 0.39) by indirect effects of increased SWC and NO3-N on clay and silty clay soils. For the species with no CO2 response, inflorescence production was predicted only by direct water content (p grass) or vegetative biomass (p = 0.0009, Tridens albescens, C4 grass) effects. Light availability was unrelated to inflorescence production. Changes in inflorescence production are thus closely tied to direct and indirect effects of CO2 enrichment on vegetative biomass, and may either increase, decrease, or leave

  8. Paclitaxel Plasma Concentration after the First Infusion Predicts Treatment-Limiting Peripheral Neuropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hertz, Daniel L; Kidwell, Kelley M; Vangipuram, Kiran; Li, Feng; Pai, Manjunath P; Burness, Monika; Griggs, Jennifer J; Schott, Anne F; Van Poznak, Catherine; Hayes, Daniel F; Lavoie Smith, Ellen M; Henry, N Lynn

    2018-04-27

    Purpose: Paclitaxel exposure, specifically the maximum concentration ( C max ) and amount of time the concentration remains above 0.05 μmol/L ( T c >0.05 ), has been associated with the occurrence of paclitaxel-induced peripheral neuropathy. The objective of this study was to validate the relationship between paclitaxel exposure and peripheral neuropathy. Experimental Design: Patients with breast cancer receiving paclitaxel 80 mg/m 2 × 12 weekly doses were enrolled in an observational clinical study (NCT02338115). Paclitaxel plasma concentration was measured at the end of and 16-26 hours after the first infusion to estimate C max and T c >0.05 Patient-reported peripheral neuropathy was collected via CIPN20 at each dose, and an 8-item sensory subscale (CIPN8) was used in the primary analysis to test for an association with T c >0.05 Secondary analyses were conducted using C max as an alternative exposure parameter and testing each parameter with a secondary endpoint of the occurrence of peripheral neuropathy-induced treatment disruption. Results: In 60 subjects included in the analysis, the increase in CIPN8 during treatment was associated with baseline CIPN8, cumulative dose, and relative dose intensity ( P 0.05 ( P = 0.27) nor C max ( P = 0.99). In analyses of the secondary endpoint, cumulative dose (OR = 1.46; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18-1.80; P = 0.0008) and T c >0.05 (OR = 1.79; 95% CI, 1.06-3.01; P = 0.029) or C max (OR = 2.74; 95% CI, 1.45-5.20; P = 0.002) were associated with peripheral neuropathy-induced treatment disruption. Conclusions: Paclitaxel exposure is predictive of the occurrence of treatment-limiting peripheral neuropathy in patients receiving weekly paclitaxel for breast cancer. Studies are warranted to determine whether exposure-guided dosing enhances treatment effectiveness and/or prevents peripheral neuropathy in these patients. Clin Cancer Res; 1-9. ©2018 AACR. ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

  9. Concentrations, input prediction and probabilistic biological risk assessment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) along Gujarat coastline.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosai, Haren B; Sachaniya, Bhumi K; Dudhagara, Dushyant R; Rajpara, Rahul K; Dave, Bharti P

    2018-04-01

    A comprehensive investigation was conducted in order to assess the levels of PAHs, their input prediction and potential risks to bacterial abundance and human health along Gujarat coastline. A total of 40 sediment samples were collected at quarterly intervals within a year from two contaminated sites-Alang-Sosiya Shipbreaking Yard (ASSBRY) and Navlakhi Port (NAV), situated at Gulf of Khambhat and Gulf of Kutch, respectively. The concentration of ΣPAHs ranged from 408.00 to 54240.45 ng g -1  dw, indicating heavy pollution of PAHs at both the contaminated sites. Furthermore, isomeric ratios and principal component analysis have revealed that inputs of PAHs at both contaminated sites were mixed-pyrogenic and petrogenic. Pearson co-relation test and regression analysis have disclosed Nap, Acel and Phe as major predictors for bacterial abundance at both contaminated sites. Significantly, cancer risk assessment of the PAHs has been exercised based on incremental lifetime cancer risks. Overall, index of cancer risk of PAHs for ASSBRY and NAV ranged from 4.11 × 10 -6 -2.11 × 10 -5 and 9.08 × 10 -6 -4.50 × 10 -3 indicating higher cancer risk at NAV compared to ASSBRY. The present findings provide baseline information that may help in developing advanced bioremediation and bioleaching strategies to minimize biological risk.

  10. Prediction and analysis of near-road concentrations using a reduced-form emission/dispersion model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kononowech Robert

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Near-road exposures of traffic-related air pollutants have been receiving increased attention due to evidence linking emissions from high-traffic roadways to adverse health outcomes. To date, most epidemiological and risk analyses have utilized simple but crude exposure indicators, most typically proximity measures, such as the distance between freeways and residences, to represent air quality impacts from traffic. This paper derives and analyzes a simplified microscale simulation model designed to predict short- (hourly to long-term (annual average pollutant concentrations near roads. Sensitivity analyses and case studies are used to highlight issues in predicting near-road exposures. Methods Process-based simulation models using a computationally efficient reduced-form response surface structure and a minimum number of inputs integrate the major determinants of air pollution exposures: traffic volume and vehicle emissions, meteorology, and receptor location. We identify the most influential variables and then derive a set of multiplicative submodels that match predictions from "parent" models MOBILE6.2 and CALINE4. The assembled model is applied to two case studies in the Detroit, Michigan area. The first predicts carbon monoxide (CO concentrations at a monitoring site near a freeway. The second predicts CO and PM2.5 concentrations in a dense receptor grid over a 1 km2 area around the intersection of two major roads. We analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of pollutant concentration predictions. Results Predicted CO concentrations showed reasonable agreement with annual average and 24-hour measurements, e.g., 59% of the 24-hr predictions were within a factor of two of observations in the warmer months when CO emissions are more consistent. The highest concentrations of both CO and PM2.5 were predicted to occur near intersections and downwind of major roads during periods of unfavorable meteorology (e.g., low wind

  11. Modeling of steroid estrogen contamination in UK and South Australian rivers predicts modest increases in concentrations in the future.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Christopher; Williams, Richard; Kanda, Rakesh; Churchley, John; He, Ying; Thomas, Shaun; Goonan, Peter; Kumar, Anu; Jobling, Susan

    2013-07-02

    The prediction of risks posed by pharmaceuticals and personal care products in the aquatic environment now and in the future is one of the top 20 research questions regarding these contaminants following growing concern for their biological effects on fish and other animals. To this end it is important that areas experiencing the greatest risk are identified, particularly in countries experiencing water stress, where dilution of pollutants entering river networks is more limited. This study is the first to use hydrological models to estimate concentrations of pharmaceutical and natural steroid estrogens in a water stressed catchment in South Australia alongside a UK catchment and to forecast their concentrations in 2050 based on demographic and climate change predictions. The results show that despite their differing climates and demographics, modeled concentrations of steroid estrogens in effluents from Australian sewage treatment works and a receiving river were predicted (simulated) to be similar to those observed in the UK and Europe, exceeding the combined estradiol equivalent's predicted no effect concentration for feminization in wild fish. Furthermore, by 2050 a moderate increase in estrogenic contamination and the potential risk to wildlife was predicted with up to a 2-fold rise in concentrations.

  12. Prostate-Specific Antigen at 4 to 5 Years After Low-Dose-Rate Prostate Brachytherapy Is a Strong Predictor of Disease-Free Survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lo, Andrea C.; Morris, W. James; Lapointe, Vincent; Hamm, Jeremy; Keyes, Mira; Pickles, Tom; McKenzie, Michael; Spadinger, Ingrid

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To determine (1) the prognostic utility of prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration at 45 to 60 months (48mPSA) after low-dose-rate prostate brachytherapy (LDR-PB); (2) the predictors of 48mPSA; and (3) the prognostic utility of directional trends between PSA levels at 24, 36, and 48 months after LDR-PB. Methods and Materials: Between 1998 and 2008, 2223 patients with low- and intermediate-risk prostate cancer received LDR-PB monotherapy. A cohort of 1434 of these patients was identified with a documented 48mPSA and no evidence of disease relapse prior to the 48mPSA. In addition, a subset of this cohort (n=585) was identified with ≥72 months of follow-up and documented PSA values at both 24 and 36 months after implantation. Results: Median follow-up time was 76 months. Eight-year Kaplan-Meier disease-free survival (DFS) rates were 100% vs 73.4% for patients with 48mPSA ≤0.2 vs those with >0.2 ng/mL; 99.1% versus 53.8% for a 48mPSA threshold of ≤0.4 versus >0.4 ng/mL, respectively; and 97.3% versus 0% for a threshold of ≤1.0 versus >1.0 ng/mL, respectively. On multivariate analysis, the only factor predictive of DFS was 48mPSA (P 0.2 ng/mL) between 24 and 36 months, 24 patients had a rise between 36 and 48 months, and 11 patients had rises over both intervals. Failure rates in these patients were 52%, 79%, and 100%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, initial PSA, androgen deprivation therapy, and dose to 90% of the prostate significantly correlated with 48mPSA but together accounted for only ∼5% of its total variance. Conclusions: The 48mPSA after LDR-PB is highly predictive of long-term DFS. Patients with 48mPSA ≤0.4 ng/mL had a 1.0 ng/mL relapsed. Consecutive PSA rises of >0.2 ng/mL from 24 to 36 months and from 36 to 48 months were also highly predictive of subsequent failure

  13. Evaluation of the use of serum C-reactive protein concentration to predict outcome in puppies infected with canine parvovirus

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McClure, Vanessa; van Schoor, Mirinda; Thompson, Peter N.

    2013-01-01

    Objective-To evaluate associations of serum C-reactive protein (CRP) concentration with duration of hospitalization and with outcome in puppies with canine parvoviral enteritis. Design-Prospective observational study. Animals-79 client-owned puppies with naturally acquired canine parvovirus...... infection. Procedures-All puppies received supportive care. Serum CRP concentration was measured at the time of admission, approximately every 10 to 12 hours for the first 48 hours, and then every 24 hours until discharge from the hospital or death. Associations between outcome and CRP concentration...... at various time points or changes in CRP concentration over time were assessed via multiple logistic regression. Associations of CRP concentration with survival time and duration of hospitalization among survivors were estimated with Cox proportional hazards regression. Use of CRP concentration to predict...

  14. Spatiotemporal prediction of continuous daily PM2.5 concentrations across China using a spatially explicit machine learning algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhan, Yu; Luo, Yuzhou; Deng, Xunfei; Chen, Huajin; Grieneisen, Michael L.; Shen, Xueyou; Zhu, Lizhong; Zhang, Minghua

    2017-04-01

    A high degree of uncertainty associated with the emission inventory for China tends to degrade the performance of chemical transport models in predicting PM2.5 concentrations especially on a daily basis. In this study a novel machine learning algorithm, Geographically-Weighted Gradient Boosting Machine (GW-GBM), was developed by improving GBM through building spatial smoothing kernels to weigh the loss function. This modification addressed the spatial nonstationarity of the relationships between PM2.5 concentrations and predictor variables such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and meteorological conditions. GW-GBM also overcame the estimation bias of PM2.5 concentrations due to missing AOD retrievals, and thus potentially improved subsequent exposure analyses. GW-GBM showed good performance in predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations (R2 = 0.76, RMSE = 23.0 μg/m3) even with partially missing AOD data, which was better than the original GBM model (R2 = 0.71, RMSE = 25.3 μg/m3). On the basis of the continuous spatiotemporal prediction of PM2.5 concentrations, it was predicted that 95% of the population lived in areas where the estimated annual mean PM2.5 concentration was higher than 35 μg/m3, and 45% of the population was exposed to PM2.5 >75 μg/m3 for over 100 days in 2014. GW-GBM accurately predicted continuous daily PM2.5 concentrations in China for assessing acute human health effects.

  15. Flexible chain molecules in the marginal and concentrated regimes: universal static scaling laws and cross-over predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Laso Carbajo, Manuel; Karayiannis, Nikos Ch.

    2008-01-01

    We present predictions for the static scaling exponents and for the cross-over polymer volumetric fractions in the marginal and concentrated solution regimes. Corrections for finite chain length are made. Predictions are based on an analysis of correlated fluctuations in density and chain length, in a semigrand ensemble in which mers and solvent sites exchange identities. Cross-over volumetric fractions are found to be chain length independent to first order, although reciprocal-N corrections...

  16. Prediction and forecast of Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) on the Upper Yangtze basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matos, José Pedro; Hassan, Marwan; Lu, Xixi; Franca, Mário J.

    2017-04-01

    Sediment transport in suspension may represent 90% or more of the global annual flux of sediment. For instance, more than 99% of the sediment supplied to the sea by the Yangtze River is suspended load. Suspended load is an important component for understanding channel dynamics and landscape evolution. Sediments transported in suspension are a major source of nutrients for aquatic organisms in riparian and floodplain habitats, and play a beneficial role acting as a sink in the carbon cycle. Excess of fine sediments may also have adverse effects. It can impair fish spawning by riverbed clogging, disturb foraging efficiency of hunting of river fauna, cause algae and benthos scouring, reduce or inhibit exchanges through the hyporheic region. Accumulation of fine sediments in reservoirs reduces storage capacity. Although fine sediment dynamics has been the focus of many studies, the current knowledge of sediment sources, transfer, and storage is inadequate to address fine sediment dynamics in the landscape. The theoretical derivation of a complete model for suspended sediment transport at the basin scale, incorporating small scale processes of production and transport, is hindered because the underlying mechanisms are produced at different non-similar scales. Availability of long-term reliable data on suspended sediment dynamics is essential to improve our knowledge on transport processes and to develop reliable sediment prediction models. Over the last 60 years, the Yangtze River Commission has been measuring the daily Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) at the Pingshan station. This dataset provides a unique opportunity to examine temporal variability and controls of fine sediment dynamics in the Upper Yangtze basin. The objective of this study is to describe temporal variation of fine sediment dynamics at the Pingshan station making use of the extensive sediment monitoring program undertaken at that location. We test several strategies of prediction and forecast

  17. Comparison of the multicomponent mass transfer models for the prediction of the concentration overpotential for solid oxide fuel cell anodes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vural, Yasemin; Ma, Lin; Ingham, Derek B.; Pourkashanian, Mohamed [Centre for Computational Fluid Dynamics, University of Leeds, Leeds (United Kingdom)

    2010-08-01

    In this study, multicomponent mass diffusion models, namely the Stefan-Maxwell model (SMM), the Dusty Gas model (DGM) and the Binary Friction model (BFM) have been compared in terms of their predictive capabilities of the concentration polarization of an anode supported solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) anode. The results show that other than the pore diameter, current density and concentration of reactants, which have a high importance in concentration polarization predictions, the tortuosity (or porosity/tortuosity) term, has a substantial effect on the model predictions. Contrary to the previous discussions in the literature, for the fitted value of tortuosities, SMM and DGM predictions are similar, even for an average pore radius as small as 2.6e-07 and current density as high as 1.5 A cm{sup -2}. Also it is shown that the BFM predictions are similar to DGM for the case investigated in this study. Moreover, in this study, the effect of the pressure gradient term in the DGM and the BFM has been investigated by including and excluding this term from the model equations. It is shown that for the case investigated and model assumptions used in this study, the terms including the pressure coefficient have an insignificant effect on the predictions of both DGM and BFM and therefore they can be neglected. (author)

  18. A hybrid machine learning model to predict and visualize nitrate concentration throughout the Central Valley aquifer, California, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ransom, Katherine M.; Nolan, Bernard T.; Traum, Jonathan A.; Faunt, Claudia; Bell, Andrew M.; Gronberg, Jo Ann M.; Wheeler, David C.; Zamora, Celia; Jurgens, Bryant; Schwarz, Gregory E.; Belitz, Kenneth; Eberts, Sandra; Kourakos, George; Harter, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Intense demand for water in the Central Valley of California and related increases in groundwater nitrate concentration threaten the sustainability of the groundwater resource. To assess contamination risk in the region, we developed a hybrid, non-linear, machine learning model within a statistical learning framework to predict nitrate contamination of groundwater to depths of approximately 500 m below ground surface. A database of 145 predictor variables representing well characteristics, historical and current field and landscape-scale nitrogen mass balances, historical and current land use, oxidation/reduction conditions, groundwater flow, climate, soil characteristics, depth to groundwater, and groundwater age were assigned to over 6000 private supply and public supply wells measured previously for nitrate and located throughout the study area. The boosted regression tree (BRT) method was used to screen and rank variables to predict nitrate concentration at the depths of domestic and public well supplies. The novel approach included as predictor variables outputs from existing physically based models of the Central Valley. The top five most important predictor variables included two oxidation/reduction variables (probability of manganese concentration to exceed 50 ppb and probability of dissolved oxygen concentration to be below 0.5 ppm), field-scale adjusted unsaturated zone nitrogen input for the 1975 time period, average difference between precipitation and evapotranspiration during the years 1971–2000, and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input. Twenty-five variables were selected for the final model for log-transformed nitrate. In general, increasing probability of anoxic conditions and increasing precipitation relative to potential evapotranspiration had a corresponding decrease in nitrate concentration predictions. Conversely, increasing 1975 unsaturated zone nitrogen leaching flux and 1992 total landscape nitrogen input had an increasing relative

  19. Case of Six-Year Disease-Free Survival with Undifferentiated Carcinoma of the Pancreas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroyuki Saito

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Undifferentiated carcinoma of the pancreas (UDC is rare and has a dismal prognosis. Here, we report a case of 6-year disease-free survival with a mixed type of UDC and UDC with osteoclast-like giant cells, with a high mitotic index as well as perineural, lymphatic, vessel, and diaphragmatic invasion. The patient underwent radical distal pancreatectomy and was subsequently treated with adjuvant chemotherapy using gemcitabine plus S-1 followed by maintenance chemotherapy with oral tegafur-uracil. The patient has been doing well with no evidence of recurrence for more than 6 years after surgery.

  20. Characteristic and Prediction of Carbon Monoxide Concentration using Time Series Analysis in Selected Urban Area in Malaysia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Hamid Hazrul

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Carbon monoxide (CO is a poisonous, colorless, odourless and tasteless gas. The main source of carbon monoxide is from motor vehicles and carbon monoxide levels in residential areas closely reflect the traffic density. Prediction of carbon monoxide is important to give an early warning to sufferer of respiratory problems and also can help the related authorities to be more prepared to prevent and take suitable action to overcome the problem. This research was carried out using secondary data from Department of Environment Malaysia from 2013 to 2014. The main objectives of this research is to understand the characteristic of CO concentration and also to find the most suitable time series model to predict the CO concentration in Bachang, Melaka and Kuala Terengganu. Based on the lowest AIC value and several error measure, the results show that ARMA (1,1 is the most appropriate model to predict CO concentration level in Bachang, Melaka while ARMA (1,2 is the most suitable model with smallest error to predict the CO concentration level for residential area in Kuala Terengganu.

  1. Predictive geochemical modeling of contaminant concentrations in laboratory columns and in plumes migrating from uranium mill tailings waste impoundments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peterson, S.R.; Martin, W.J.; Serne, R.J.

    1986-04-01

    A computer-based conceptual chemical model was applied to predict contaminant concentrations in plumes migrating from a uranium mill tailings waste impoundment. The solids chosen for inclusion in the conceptual model were selected based on reviews of the literature, on ion speciation/solubility calculations performed on the column effluent solutions and on mineralogical characterization of the contacted and uncontacted sediments. The mechanism of adsorption included in the conceptual chemical model was chosen based on results from semiselective extraction experiments and from mineralogical characterization procedures performed on the sediments. This conceptual chemical model was further developed and partially validated in laboratory experiments where assorted acidic uranium mill tailings solutions percolated through various sediments. This document contains the results of a partial field and laboratory validation (i.e., test of coherence) of this chemical model. Macro constituents (e.g., Ca, SO 4 , Al, Fe, and Mn) of the tailings solution were predicted closely by considering their concentrations to be controlled by the precipitation/dissolution of solid phases. Trace elements, however, were generally predicted to be undersaturated with respect to plausible solid phase controls. The concentration of several of the trace elements were closely predicted by considering their concentrations to be controlled by adsorption onto the amorphous iron oxyhydroxides that precipitated

  2. Long-term predictive value of postsurgical cortisol concentrations for cure and risk of recurrence in Cushing's disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pereira, Alberto M.; van Aken, Maarten O.; van Dulken, Hans; Schutte, Pieter J.; Biermasz, Nienke R.; Smit, Jan W. A.; Roelfsema, Ferdinand; Romijn, Johannes A.

    2003-01-01

    We assessed the value of postoperative plasma cortisol concentrations to predict cure and recurrence of Cushing's disease after transsphenoidal surgery (TS). Seventy-eight of 80 consecutive patients treated by TS for Cushing's disease were evaluated. TS cured 72% (n = 56) of the patients. Two weeks

  3. Radical Nephrectomy for Primary Retroperitoneal Liposarcoma Near the Kidney has a Beneficial Effect on Disease-Free Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rhu, Jinsoo; Cho, Chan Woo; Lee, Kyo Won; Park, Hyojun; Park, Jae Berm; Choi, Yoon-La; Kim, Sung Joo

    2018-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to analyze the clinical impact of radical nephrectomy on retroperitoneal liposarcoma near the kidney. Data of patients who underwent surgery for unilateral primary retroperitoneal liposarcoma near the kidney were retrospectively collected. Patients were divided into four groups according to whether they underwent nephrectomy and combined resection of other organs. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate disease-free survival and overall survival. Multivariable Cox analysis was used to analyze factors related to disease-free survival and overall survival. Nephrectomy (HR = 0.260, CI = 0.078-0.873, p = 0.029) had a beneficial effect on disease-free survival, while interaction model of nephrectomy*other organ resection (HR = 4.655, CI = 1.767-12.263, p = 0.002) showed poor disease-free survival. Other organ resection was not related to disease-free survival (HR = 1.543, CI = 0.146-16.251, p = 0.718). Operation method (p = 0.007) and FNCLCC grade (p free survival. While combined organ resection without nephrectomy group (HR = 1.604, CI = 0.167-15.370, p = 0.682) and radical nephrectomy with combined organ resection group (HR = 1.309, CI = 0.448-3.825, p = 0.622) did not show significant difference in disease-free survival from the mass excision only group, radical nephrectomy without combined organ resection group (HR = 0.279, CI = 0.078-0.991, p = 0.048) showed superior disease-free survival. Radical nephrectomy of unilateral primary retroperitoneal liposarcoma near the kidney has a beneficial effect on disease-free survival.

  4. A Review on Predicting Ground PM2.5 Concentration Using Satellite Aerosol Optical Depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Chu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This study reviewed the prediction of fine particulate matter (PM2.5 from satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD and summarized the advantages and limitations of these predicting models. A total of 116 articles were included from 1436 records retrieved. The number of such studies has been increasing since 2003. Among these studies, four predicting models were widely used: Multiple Linear Regression (MLR (25 articles, Mixed-Effect Model (MEM (23 articles, Chemical Transport Model (CTM (16 articles and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR (10 articles. We found that there is no so-called best model among them and each has both advantages and limitations. Regarding the prediction accuracy, MEM performs the best, while MLR performs worst. CTM predicts PM2.5 better on a global scale, while GWR tends to perform well on a regional level. Moreover, prediction performance can be significantly improved by combining meteorological variables with land use factors of each region, instead of only considering meteorological variables. In addition, MEM has advantages in dealing with the AOD data with missing values. We recommend that with the help of higher resolution AOD data, future works could be focused on developing satellite-based predicting models for the prediction of historical PM2.5 and other air pollutants.

  5. Early Postoperative Low Expression of RAD50 in Rectal Cancer Patients Associates with Disease-Free Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vincent Ho

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Background: Molecular biomarkers have the potential to predict response to the treatment of rectal cancer. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the prognostic and clinicopathological implication of RAD50 (DNA repair protein RAD50 homolog expression in rectal cancer. Methods: A total of 266 rectal cancer patients who underwent surgery and received chemo- and radiotherapy between 2000 and 2011 were involved in the study. Postoperative RAD50 expression was determined by immunohistochemistry in surgical samples (n = 266. Results: Using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis, we found that low RAD50 expression in postoperative samples was associated with worse disease free survival (p = 0.001 and overall survival (p < 0.001 in early stage/low-grade tumors. In a comparison of patients with low vs. high RAD50 expression, we found that low levels of postoperative RAD50 expression in rectal cancer tissues were significantly associated with perineural invasion (p = 0.002. Conclusion: Expression of RAD50 in rectal cancer may serve as a prognostic biomarker for long-term survival of patients with perineural invasion-positive tumors and for potential use in early stage and low-grade rectal cancer assessment.

  6. Predicting and measurement of pH of seawater reverse osmosis concentrates

    KAUST Repository

    Waly, Tarek; Kennedy, Maria Dolores; Witkamp, Geert-Jan; Amy, Gary L.; Schippers, Jan Cornelis

    2011-01-01

    The pH of seawater reverse osmosis plants (SWRO) is the most influential parameter in determining the degree of supersaturation of CaCO3 in the concentrate stream. For this, the results of pH measurements of the concentrate of a seawater reverse

  7. A Common Variant in the SETD7 Gene Predicts Serum Lycopene Concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Adamo, Christopher R; D'Urso, Antonietta; Ryan, Kathleen A; Yerges-Armstrong, Laura M; Semba, Richard D; Steinle, Nanette I; Mitchell, Braxton D; Shuldiner, Alan R; McArdle, Patrick F

    2016-02-06

    Dietary intake and higher serum concentrations of lycopene have been associated with lower incidence of prostate cancer and other chronic diseases. Identifying determinants of serum lycopene concentrations may thus have important public health implications. Prior studies have suggested that serum lycopene concentrations are under partial genetic control. The goal of this research was to identify genetic predictors of serum lycopene concentrations using the genome-wide association study (GWAS) approach among a sample of 441 Old Order Amish adults that consumed a controlled diet. Linear regression models were utilized to evaluate associations between genetic variants and serum concentrations of lycopene. Variant rs7680948 on chromosome 4, located in the intron region of the SETD7 gene, was significantly associated with serum lycopene concentrations (p = 3.41 × 10(-9)). Our findings also provided nominal support for the association previously noted between SCARB1 and serum lycopene concentrations, although with a different SNP (rs11057841) in the region. This study identified a novel locus associated with serum lycopene concentrations and our results raise a number of intriguing possibilities regarding the nature of the relationship between SETD7 and lycopene, both of which have been independently associated with prostate cancer. Further investigation into this relationship might help provide greater mechanistic understanding of these associations.

  8. A Common Variant in the SETD7 Gene Predicts Serum Lycopene Concentrations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher R. D’Adamo

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Dietary intake and higher serum concentrations of lycopene have been associated with lower incidence of prostate cancer and other chronic diseases. Identifying determinants of serum lycopene concentrations may thus have important public health implications. Prior studies have suggested that serum lycopene concentrations are under partial genetic control. The goal of this research was to identify genetic predictors of serum lycopene concentrations using the genome-wide association study (GWAS approach among a sample of 441 Old Order Amish adults that consumed a controlled diet. Linear regression models were utilized to evaluate associations between genetic variants and serum concentrations of lycopene. Variant rs7680948 on chromosome 4, located in the intron region of the SETD7 gene, was significantly associated with serum lycopene concentrations (p = 3.41 × 10−9. Our findings also provided nominal support for the association previously noted between SCARB1 and serum lycopene concentrations, although with a different SNP (rs11057841 in the region. This study identified a novel locus associated with serum lycopene concentrations and our results raise a number of intriguing possibilities regarding the nature of the relationship between SETD7 and lycopene, both of which have been independently associated with prostate cancer. Further investigation into this relationship might help provide greater mechanistic understanding of these associations.

  9. Estimated exposures to perfluorinated compounds in infancy predict attenuated vaccine antibody concentrations at age 5-years

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grandjean, Philippe; Heilmann, Carsten; Weihe, Pal

    2017-01-01

    Perfluorinated alkylate substances (PFASs) are highly persistent and may cause immunotoxic effects. PFAS-associated attenuated antibody responses to childhood vaccines may be affected by PFAS exposures during infancy, where breastfeeding adds to PFAS exposures. Of 490 members of a Faroese birth...... cohort, 275 and 349 participated in clinical examinations and provided blood samples at ages 18 months and 5 years. PFAS concentrations were measured at birth and at the clinical examinations. Using information on duration of breastfeeding, serum-PFAS concentration profiles during infancy were estimated......, with decreases by up to about 20% for each two-fold higher exposure, while associations for serum concentrations at ages 18 months and 5 years were weaker. Modeling of serum-PFAS concentration showed levels for age 18 months that were similar to those measured. Concentrations estimated for ages 3 and 6 months...

  10. Conifer density within lake catchments predicts fish mercury concentrations in remote subalpine lakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eagles-Smith, Collin A.; Herring, Garth; Johnson, Branden L.; Graw, Rick

    2016-01-01

    Remote high-elevation lakes represent unique environments for evaluating the bioaccumulation of atmospherically deposited mercury through freshwater food webs, as well as for evaluating the relative importance of mercury loading versus landscape influences on mercury bioaccumulation. The increase in mercury deposition to these systems over the past century, coupled with their limited exposure to direct anthropogenic disturbance make them useful indicators for estimating how changes in mercury emissions may propagate to changes in Hg bioaccumulation and ecological risk. We evaluated mercury concentrations in resident fish from 28 high-elevation, sub-alpine lakes in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States. Fish total mercury (THg) concentrations ranged from 4 to 438 ng/g wet weight, with a geometric mean concentration (±standard error) of 43 ± 2 ng/g ww. Fish THg concentrations were negatively correlated with relative condition factor, indicating that faster growing fish that are in better condition have lower THg concentrations. Across the 28 study lakes, mean THg concentrations of resident salmonid fishes varied as much as 18-fold among lakes. We used a hierarchal statistical approach to evaluate the relative importance of physiological, limnological, and catchment drivers of fish Hg concentrations. Our top statistical model explained 87% of the variability in fish THg concentrations among lakes with four key landscape and limnological variables: catchment conifer density (basal area of conifers within a lake's catchment), lake surface area, aqueous dissolved sulfate, and dissolved organic carbon. Conifer density within a lake's catchment was the most important variable explaining fish THg concentrations across lakes, with THg concentrations differing by more than 400 percent across the forest density spectrum. These results illustrate the importance of landscape characteristics in controlling mercury bioaccumulation in fish.

  11. Predicting daily PM2.5 concentrations in Texas using high-resolution satellite aerosol optical depth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xueying; Chu, Yiyi; Wang, Yuxuan; Zhang, Kai

    2018-08-01

    The regulatory monitoring data of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter images retrieved from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellites. We then developed mixed-effects models based on AODs, land use features, geographic characteristics, and weather conditions, and the day-specific as well as site-specific random effects to estimate the PM 2.5 concentrations (μg/m 3 ) in the state of Texas during the period 2008-2013. The mixed-effects models' performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) and square root of the mean squared prediction error (RMSPE) from ten-fold cross-validation, which randomly selected 90% of the observations for training purpose and 10% of the observations for assessing the models' true prediction ability. Mixed-effects regression models showed good prediction performance (R 2 values from 10-fold cross validation: 0.63-0.69). The model performance varied by regions and study years, and the East region of Texas, and year of 2009 presented relatively higher prediction precision (R 2 : 0.62 for the East region; R 2 : 0.69 for the year of 2009). The PM 2.5 concentrations generated through our developed models at 1-km grid cells in the state of Texas showed a decreasing trend from 2008 to 2013 and a higher reduction of predicted PM 2.5 in more polluted areas. Our findings suggest that mixed-effects regression models developed based on MAIAC AOD are a feasible approach to predict ground-level PM 2.5 in Texas. Predicted PM 2.5 concentrations at the 1-km resolution on a daily basis can be used for epidemiological studies to investigate short- and long-term health impact of PM 2.5 in Texas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Psychosocial Health of Disease-Free Breast Cancer Survivors Compared with Matched Non-cancer Controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Boyoung; Lee, Moo Hyun; Kong, Sun-Young; Lee, Eun Sook

    2018-04-05

    The present study investigated the psychosocial health of disease-free breast cancer survivors who receive health examinations compared to matched non-cancer controls in a community setting. We used baseline data from the Health Examinee cohort, which is composed of subjects participating in health. The disease-free breast cancer survivors were defined as those who were ≥2 years from initial diagnosis of breast cancer who had completed treatment. Females without a history of cancer were randomly selected at 1:4 ratio by 5-year age groups, education, and household income as a comparison group. We analyzed results from the Psychosocial Well-being Index-Short Form (PWI-SF) as a psychosocial health measurement. A total of 347 survivors of breast cancer and 1,388 matched controls were included. Total scores on the PWI-SF were lower in breast cancer survivors than matched non-cancer controls (p=0.006), suggesting a lower level of psychosocial stress in breast cancer survivors. In comparison to the control group, prevalence of drinking, smoking and obesity were lower, while exercising for ≥150 min/wk was higher in breast cancer survivors (p psychosocial health status compared to matched non-cancer controls.

  13. Comparison of predicted pesticide concentrations in groundwater from SCI-GROW and PRZM-GW models with historical monitoring data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Tammara L; Pai, Naresh; Winchell, Michael F

    2016-06-01

    A key factor in the human health risk assessment process for the registration of pesticides by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is an estimate of pesticide concentrations in groundwater used for drinking water. From 1997 to 2011, these estimates were obtained from the EPA empirical model SCI-GROW. Since 2012, these estimates have been obtained from the EPA deterministic model PRZM-GW, which has resulted in a significant increase in estimated groundwater concentrations for many pesticides. Historical groundwater monitoring data from the National Ambient Water Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program (1991-2014) were compared with predicted groundwater concentrations from both SCI-GROW (v.2.3) and PRZM-GW (v.1.07) for 66 different pesticides of varying environmental fate properties. The pesticide environmental fate parameters associated with over- and underprediction of groundwater concentrations by the two models were evaluated. In general, SCI-GROW2.3 predicted groundwater concentrations were close to maximum historically observed groundwater concentrations. However, for pesticides with soil organic carbon content values below 1000 L kg(-1) and no simulated hydrolysis, PRZM-GW overpredicted, often by greater than 100 ppb. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

  14. Smoking, physical inactivity and obesity as predictors of healthy and disease-free life expectancy between ages 50 and 75: a multicohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stenholm, Sari; Head, Jenny; Kivimäki, Mika; Kawachi, Ichiro; Aalto, Ville; Zins, Marie; Goldberg, Marcel; Zaninotto, Paola; Magnuson Hanson, Linda; Westerlund, Hugo; Vahtera, Jussi

    2016-08-01

    Smoking, physical inactivity and obesity are modifiable risk factors for morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study was to examine the extent to which the co-occurrence of these behaviour-related risk factors predict healthy life expectancy and chronic disease-free life expectancy in four European cohort studies. Data were drawn from repeated waves of four cohort studies in England, Finland, France and Sweden. Smoking status, physical inactivity and obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m 2 ) were examined separately and in combination. Health expectancy was estimated by using two health indicators: suboptimal self-rated health and having a chronic disease (cardiovascular disease, cancer, respiratory disease and diabetes). Multistate life table models were used to estimate sex-specific healthy life expectancy and chronic disease-free life expectancy from ages 50 to 75 years. Compared with men and women with at least two behaviour-related risk factors, those with no behaviour-related risk factors could expect to live on average8 years longer in good health and 6 years longer free of chronic diseases between ages 50 and 75. Having any single risk factor was also associated with reduction in healthy years. No consistent differences between cohorts were observed. Data from four European countries show that persons with individual and co-occurring behaviour-related risk factors have shorter healthy life expectancy and shorter chronic disease-free life expectancy. Population level reductions in smoking, physical inactivity and obesity could increase life-years lived in good health. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

  15. Regression models for explaining and predicting concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in fish from streams in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowell, Lisa H.; Crawford, Charles G.; Gilliom, Robert J.; Nakagaki, Naomi; Stone, Wesley W.; Thelin, Gail; Wolock, David M.

    2009-01-01

    Empirical regression models were developed for estimating concentrations of dieldrin, total chlordane, and total DDT in whole fish from U.S. streams. Models were based on pesticide concentrations measured in whole fish at 648 stream sites nationwide (1992-2001) as part of the U.S. Geological Survey's National Water Quality Assessment Program. Explanatory variables included fish lipid content, estimates (or surrogates) representing historical agricultural and urban sources, watershed characteristics, and geographic location. Models were developed using Tobit regression methods appropriate for data with censoring. Typically, the models explain approximately 50 to 70% of the variability in pesticide concentrations measured in whole fish. The models were used to predict pesticide concentrations in whole fish for streams nationwide using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's River Reach File 1 and to estimate the probability that whole-fish concentrations exceed benchmarks for protection of fish-eating wildlife. Predicted concentrations were highest for dieldrin in the Corn Belt, Texas, and scattered urban areas; for total chlordane in the Corn Belt, Texas, the Southeast, and urbanized Northeast; and for total DDT in the Southeast, Texas, California, and urban areas nationwide. The probability of exceeding wildlife benchmarks for dieldrin and chlordane was predicted to be low for most U.S. streams. The probability of exceeding wildlife benchmarks for total DDT is higher but varies depending on the fish taxon and on the benchmark used. Because the models in the present study are based on fish data collected during the 1990s and organochlorine pesticide residues in the environment continue to decline decades after their uses were discontinued, these models may overestimate present-day pesticide concentrations in fish. ?? 2009 SETAC.

  16. Overall survival and disease-free survival in endometrial cancer: prognostic factors in 276 patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tejerizo-García A

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Álvaro Tejerizo-García,1 Jesús S Jiménez-López,1 José L Muñoz-González,1 Sara Bartolomé-Sotillos,1 Laura Marqueta-Marqués,1 Gregorio López-González,1 José F Pérez-Regadera Gómez21Service of Obstetrics and Gynecology, 2Radiation Oncology Service, Hospital Universitario 12 de Octubre, Madrid, SpainObjective: The aim of the study reported here was to assess the disease-free survival and overall survival of patients with endometrial cancer and to determine independent factors affecting the prognosis.Materials and methods: This was a retrospective study of a single-center clinical series of 276 patients (mean age 64 years with histologically confirmed cancer of the corpus uteri. The standard treatments were extrafascial total hysterectomy and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy with selective pelvic/para-aortic node dissection, according to risk for recurrence. Actuarial overall survival and disease-free survival were estimated according to the Kaplan–Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to assess the prognostic significance of the different variables.Results: The estimated median follow-up, determined using the inverse Kaplan–Meier method, was 45 months (95% confidence interval [CI] 41.2–48.8 for disease-free survival and 46 months (95% CI 43.0–49.0 for overall survival. The statistically significant variables affecting disease-free survival and overall survival were age, serous-papillary and clear-cell histological types, outer-half myometrial invasion, advanced International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO stage, tumor grades G2 and G3, incomplete surgical resection, positive lymph nodes, lymphovascular space invasion, tumor remnants of >1 cm after surgery, and high-risk group. In the multivariate Cox regression model, predictors of tumor recurrence included advanced FIGO stage (hazard ratio [HR] 4.90, 95% CI 2.57–9.36, P < 0.001 and tumor grades G2 (HR 4.79, 95

  17. Increased serum concentrations of soluble ST2 predict mortality after burn injury.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Stefan; Dieplinger, Benjamin; Werba, Gregor; Nickl, Stefanie; Roth, Georg A; Krenn, Claus G; Mueller, Thomas; Ankersmit, Hendrik J; Haider, Thomas

    2018-06-27

    Large burn injuries induce a systemic response in affected patients. Soluble ST2 (sST2) acts as a decoy receptor for interleukin-33 (IL-33) and has immunosuppressive effects. sST2 has been described previously as a prognostic serum marker. Our aim was to evaluate serum concentrations of sST2 and IL-33 after thermal injury and elucidate whether sST2 is associated with mortality in these patients. We included 32 burn patients (total body surface area [TBSA] >10%) admitted to our burn intensive care unit and compared them to eight healthy probands. Serum concentrations of sST2 and IL-33 were measured serially using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) technique. The mean TBSA was 32.5%±19.6%. Six patients (18.8%) died during the hospital stay. Serum analyses showed significantly increased concentrations of sST2 and reduced concentrations of IL-33 in burn patients compared to healthy controls. In our study cohort, higher serum concentrations of sST2 were a strong independent predictor of mortality. Burn injuries cause an increment of sST2 serum concentrations with a concomitant reduction of IL-33. Higher concentrations of sST2 are associated with increased in-hospital mortality in burn patients.

  18. Estimated exposures to perfluorinated compounds in infancy predict attenuated vaccine antibody concentrations at age 5-years.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandjean, Philippe; Heilmann, Carsten; Weihe, Pal; Nielsen, Flemming; Mogensen, Ulla B; Timmermann, Amalie; Budtz-Jørgensen, Esben

    2017-12-01

    Perfluorinated alkylate substances (PFASs) are highly persistent and may cause immunotoxic effects. PFAS-associated attenuated antibody responses to childhood vaccines may be affected by PFAS exposures during infancy, where breastfeeding adds to PFAS exposures. Of 490 members of a Faroese birth cohort, 275 and 349 participated in clinical examinations and provided blood samples at ages 18 months and 5 years. PFAS concentrations were measured at birth and at the clinical examinations. Using information on duration of breastfeeding, serum-PFAS concentration profiles during infancy were estimated. As outcomes, serum concentrations of antibodies against tetanus and diphtheria vaccines were determined at age 5. Data from a previous cohort born eight years earlier were available for pooled analyses. Pre-natal exposure showed inverse associations with the antibody concentrations five years later, with decreases by up to about 20% for each two-fold higher exposure, while associations for serum concentrations at ages 18 months and 5 years were weaker. Modeling of serum-PFAS concentration showed levels for age 18 months that were similar to those measured. Concentrations estimated for ages 3 and 6 months showed the strongest inverse associations with antibody concentrations at age 5 years, particularly for tetanus. Joint analyses showed statistically significant decreases in tetanus antibody concentrations by 19-29% at age 5 for each doubling of the PFAS exposure in early infancy. These findings support the notion that the developing adaptive immune system is particularly vulnerable to immunotoxicity during infancy. This vulnerability appears to be the greatest during the first 6 months after birth, where PFAS exposures are affected by breast-feeding.

  19. Predicting Fecal Indicator Bacteria Concentrations in the South Fork Broad River Watershed Using Virtual Beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virtual Beach (VB) is a decision support tool that constructs site-specific statistical models to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at recreational beaches. Although primarily designed for making decisions regarding beach closures or issuance of swimming advisories based on...

  20. Development and evaluation of SBLINE, a suite of models for the prediction of pollution concentrations from vehicles in urban areas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Namdeo, A.K.; Colls, J.J. [Environmental Science, University of Nottingham, Loughborough (United Kingdom)

    1996-09-06

    The assessment of air quality impacts from roadways is a major concern to urban planners, developers, health officials and engineers. This paper describes the development of a suite of models, called SBLINE, for prediction of pollution concentrations from vehicles in urban road networks. The first component of the suite is ROADFAC, an emission model for calculating emission rates for a road link with known vehicle fleet structure and operational details. ROADFAC can also calculate modal emission rates, caused by deceleration, idle, acceleration and cruise operational modes, by determining queue length and vehicle delay from traffic volume and signal phasing information. The other components of SBLINE are two dispersion models, called NOTLINE and CPB, for prediction of pollution concentrations contributed by different roadlinks in the network. These models use site geometry, meteorology, and traffic emissions calculated by ROADFAC to predict pollutant concentrations. The contribution from a given link is calculated by using NOTLINE if that link is situated in simple topography, or CPB is run if the link is inside a canyon or a cut-section. Finally, cumulative concentrations at any receptor location are calculated by adding the contributions from all roadlinks. SBLINE can be applied to any urban network of roads, with roadlinks located in either simple topography or street canyons. The program has been evaluated in one region of Leicester in the UK. The region represents a typical urban network of roads with some roads located in plain topography and some inside medium size canyons. Observed values of pollutant concentrations are compared with predictions made from detailed measurements of the vehicle population parameters, meteorology, and local street and building topography. Well-established statistical techniques have been used to show the potential of SBLINE for application to other road networks

  1. Evaluation of missing value methods for predicting ambient BTEX concentrations in two neighbouring cities in Southwestern Ontario Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Lindsay; Xu, Xiaohong; Wheeler, Amanda; Zhang, Tianchu; Hamadani, Mariam; Ejaz, Unam

    2018-05-01

    High density air monitoring campaigns provide spatial patterns of pollutant concentrations which are integral in exposure assessment. Such analysis can assist with the determination of links between air quality and health outcomes, however, problems due to missing data can threaten to compromise these studies. This research evaluates four methods; mean value imputation, inverse distance weighting (IDW), inter-species ratios, and regression, to address missing spatial concentration data ranging from one missing data point up to 50% missing data. BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes) concentrations were measured in Windsor and Sarnia, Ontario in the fall of 2005. Concentrations and inter-species ratios were generally similar between the two cities. Benzene (B) was observed to be higher in Sarnia, whereas toluene (T) and the T/B ratios were higher in Windsor. Using these urban, industrialized cities as case studies, this research demonstrates that using inter-species ratios or regression of the data for which there is complete information, along with one measured concentration (i.e. benzene) to predict for missing concentrations (i.e. TEX) results in good agreement between predicted and measured values. In both cities, the general trend remains that best agreement is observed for the leave-one-out scenario, followed by 10% and 25% missing, and the least agreement for the 50% missing cases. In the absence of any known concentrations IDW can provide reasonable agreement between observed and estimated concentrations for the BTEX species, and was superior over mean value imputation which was not able to preserve the spatial trend. The proposed methods can be used to fill in missing data, while preserving the general characteristics and rank order of the data which are sufficient for epidemiologic studies.

  2. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

    1981-08-01

    A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking

  3. Pesticide exposure assessment in flowing waters – results for predicted environmental concentrations in some brooks in Germany

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Trapp, M.T.; Guerniche, D.G.; Bach, M.B.

    2010-01-01

    was to predict initial environmental concentrations in flowing water bodies after spray drift exposure. Based on this the downstream development of these concentrations over space and time with regard to dispersion processes was simulated (PECtwa, Time over Threshold). An adequate GIS-based software......The “Georisk”- project of the German Federal Environmental Agency forms the scientific basis for an integration of more realistic landscape based scenarios into the process of pesticide registration. Here, first results of geodata-based simulations are presented. The objective of the simulations...

  4. Prediction of indoor concentration of 0.5-4 µm particles of outdoor origin in an uninhabited apartment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schneider, T.; Jensen, K.A.; Clausen, P.A.

    2004-01-01

    Indoor and outdoor particle size distributions, indoor-outdoor pressure difference, indoor air-exchange rate, and meteorological conditions were measured at an uninhabited apartment located in a busy street in Copenhagen during 1-month long fall, winter and spring campaigns. Particle penetration...... was estimated from concentration rebound measurements following HEPA filtering of the indoor air by fitting a simple deterministic model. The model included measured air exchange rates and published surface deposition loss rates. This model was then used to predict indoor particle concentration. The model...

  5. Kinetic model for predicting the concentrations of active halogens species in chlorinated saline cooling waters. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haag, W.R.; Lietzke, M.H.

    1981-08-01

    A kinetic model has been developed for describing the speciation of chlorine-produced oxidants in seawater as a function of time. The model is applicable under a broad variety of conditions, including all pH range, salinities, temperatures, ammonia concentrations, organic amine concentrations, and chlorine doses likely to be encountered during power plant cooling water chlorination. However, the effects of sunlight are not considered. The model can also be applied to freshwater and recirculating water systems with cooling towers. The results of the model agree with expectation, however, complete verification is not feasible at the present because analytical methods for some of the predicted species are lacking.

  6. Real-time prediction of extreme ambient carbon monoxide concentrations due to vehicular exhaust emissions using univariate linear stochastic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, P.; Khare, M.

    2000-01-01

    Historical data of the time-series of carbon monoxide (CO) concentration was analysed using Box-Jenkins modelling approach. Univariate Linear Stochastic Models (ULSMs) were developed to examine the degree of prediction possible for situations where only a limited data set, restricted only to the past record of pollutant data are available. The developed models can be used to provide short-term, real-time forecast of extreme CO concentrations for an Air Quality Control Region (AQCR), comprising a major traffic intersection in a Central Business District of Delhi City, India. (author)

  7. Perioperative plasma concentrations of stable nitric oxide products are predictive of cognitive dysfunction after laparoscopic cholecystectomy.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Iohom, G

    2012-02-03

    In this study our objectives were to determine the incidence of postoperative cognitive dysfunction (POCD) after laparoscopic cholecystectomy under sevoflurane anesthesia in patients aged >40 and <85 yr and to examine the associations between plasma concentrations of i) S-100beta protein and ii) stable nitric oxide (NO) products and POCD in this clinical setting. Neuropsychological tests were performed on 42 ASA physical status I-II patients the day before, and 4 days and 6 wk after surgery. Patient spouses (n = 13) were studied as controls. Cognitive dysfunction was defined as deficit in one or more cognitive domain(s). Serial measurements of serum concentrations of S-100beta protein and plasma concentrations of stable NO products (nitrate\\/nitrite, NOx) were performed perioperatively. Four days after surgery, new cognitive deficit was present in 16 (40%) patients and in 1 (7%) control subject (P = 0.01). Six weeks postoperatively, new cognitive deficit was present in 21 (53%) patients and 3 (23%) control subjects (P = 0.03). Compared with the "no deficit" group, patients who demonstrated a new cognitive deficit 4 days postoperatively had larger plasma NOx at each perioperative time point (P < 0.05 for each time point). Serum S-100beta protein concentrations were similar in the 2 groups. In conclusion, preoperative (and postoperative) plasma concentrations of stable NO products (but not S-100beta) are associated with early POCD. The former represents a potential biochemical predictor of POCD.

  8. Cerebrospinal fluid neurofilament light concentration in motor neuron disease and frontotemporal dementia predicts survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skillbäck, Tobias; Mattsson, Niklas; Blennow, Kaj; Zetterberg, Henrik

    2017-08-01

    To aid diagnostics, patient stratification and studies seeking to find treatments for the related diseases motor neuron disease (MND) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD), there is a need to establish a way to assess disease severity and the amount of ongoing neurodegeneration. Previous studies have suggested that cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) neurofilament light (NFL) may serve this purpose. We cross-referenced the Swedish mortality registry with the laboratory database at Sahlgrenska University Hospital to produce a dataset of CSF NFL concentrations and mortality information for 715 MND patients, 87 FTD patients, and 107 healthy controls. Biomarker concentrations were analysed in relation to recorded cause of death and time of death. MND patients had significantly higher CSF NFL concentrations than FTD patients. Both groups had significantly higher concentrations than the healthy controls (mean 709% increase in MND and 307% increase in FTD). Higher concentrations of CSF NFL were associated with shorter survival in both MND and FTD. The results of this study strengthen the notion of CSF NFL as a useful tool for determining disease intensity in MND and FTD patients. Further studies in patient cohorts with clinically subtyped and genetically classified diagnoses are needed.

  9. Temporal Trends and Future Predictions of Mercury Concentrations in Northwest Greenland Polar Bear (Ursus maritimus) Hair

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dietz, Rune; Born, E.W.; Riget, Frank Farsø

    2011-01-01

    -2008 concentrations ofHg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call......Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafterHg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly...

  10. Applicability of a Single Time Point Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Concentration Curve of Linezolid in Patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-01-01

    Background and Objectives: Linezolid, a oxazolidinone, was the first in class to be approved for the treatment of bacterial infections arising from both susceptible and resistant strains of Gram-positive bacteria. Since overt exposure of linezolid may precipitate serious toxicity issues......, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may be required in certain situations, especially in patients who are prescribed other co-medications. Methods: Using appropriate oral pharmacokinetic data (single dose and steady state) for linezolid, both maximum plasma drug concentration (Cmax) versus area under the plasma...... concentration–time curve (AUC) and minimum plasma drug concentration (Cmin) versus AUC relationship was established by linear regression models. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax or Cmin data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted...

  11. Prediction model for high glycated hemoglobin concentration among ethnic Chinese in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Bai-Chin

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study aimed to construct a prediction model to identify subjects with high glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c levels by incorporating anthropometric, lifestyle, clinical, and biochemical information in a large cross-sectional ethnic Chinese population in Taiwan from a health checkup center. Methods The prediction model was derived from multivariate logistic regression, and we evaluated the performance of the model in identifying the cases with high HbA1c levels (> = 7.0%. In total 17,773 participants (age > = 30 years were recruited and 323 participants (1.8% had high HbA1c levels. The study population was divided randomly into two parts, with 80% as the derivation data and 20% as the validation data. Results The point-based clinical model, including age (maximal 8 points, sex (1 point, family history (3 points, body mass index (2 points, waist circumference (4 points, and systolic blood pressure (3 points reached an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC of 0.723 (95% confidence interval, 0.677- 0.769 in the validation data. Adding biochemical measures such as triglycerides and HDL cholesterol improved the prediction power (AUC, 0.770 [0.723 - 0.817], P = Conclusions A prediction model was constructed for the prevalent risk of high HbA1c, which could be useful in identifying high risk subjects for diabetes among ethnic Chinese in Taiwan.

  12. Predicting E. Coli and Enterococci Concentrations in the South Fork Broad River Watershed Using Virtual Beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Virtual Beach (VB) is a decision support tool that constructs site-specific statistical models to predict fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) at locations of exposure. Although primarily designed for making decisions regarding beach closures or issuance of swimming advisories based on...

  13. Hyperspectral imaging based on diffused laser light for prediction of astaxanthin coating concentration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ljungqvist, Martin Georg; Nielsen, Otto Højager Attermann; Frosch, Stina

    2014-01-01

    -continuum laser as the light source was introduced. Furthermore, a parallel study with the commercially available multispectral VideometerLab imaging system was performed. The SuperK setup used 113 spectral bands (455–1,015 nm), and the VideometerLab used 20 spectral bands (385–1,050 nm). To predict...

  14. A new air quality monitoring and early warning system: Air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhongshan; Wang, Jian

    2017-10-01

    Air pollution in many countries is worsening with industrialization and urbanization, resulting in climate change and affecting people's health, thus, making the work of policymakers more difficult. It is therefore both urgent and necessary to establish amore scientific air quality monitoring and early warning system to evaluate the degree of air pollution objectively, and predict pollutant concentrations accurately. However, the integration of air quality assessment and air pollutant concentration prediction to establish an air quality system is not common. In this paper, we propose a new air quality monitoring and early warning system, including an assessment module and forecasting module. In the air quality assessment module, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is used to determine the main pollutants and evaluate the degree of air pollution more scientifically. In the air pollutant concentration prediction module, a novel hybridization model combining complementary ensemble empirical mode decomposition, a modified cuckoo search and differential evolution algorithm, and an Elman neural network, is proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy of six main air pollutant concentrations. To verify the effectiveness of this system, pollutant data for two cities in China are used. The result of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation shows that the major air pollutants in Xi'an and Jinan are PM 10 and PM 2.5 respectively, and that the air quality of Xi'an is better than that of Jinan. The forecasting results indicate that the proposed hybrid model is remarkably superior to all benchmark models on account of its higher prediction accuracy and stability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Microbiological diagnosis and antimicrobial sensitivity profiles in diseased free-living raptors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal, Anna; Baldomà, Laia; Molina-López, Rafael A; Martin, Marga; Darwich, Laila

    2017-08-01

    Free-living raptors (birds of prey) can act as reservoirs of potentially zoonotic agents, but they also can be affected by microorganisms as target hosts. In this retrospective study, microbiological results (n = 663) and antibiotic sensitivity profiles (n = 108) of bacterial isolates were analysed from diseased free-living raptors. Sixty-nine percent of cases (n = 457) yielded bacteria: 58% were in pure culture and 42% were of different species. Remarkably, samples from necropsies (47%) had higher percentage of pure isolations than those obtained from clinical (31%) samples (P raptors (P 3 antimicrobials. Detection in wildlife of antimicrobial-resistant pathogens that might be significant at the animal-human-ecosystem interface is of great relevance under the 'One Health' approach.

  16. Concentration of folate in colorectal tissue biopsies predicts prevalence of adenomatous polyps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background and aims: Folate has been implicated as a potential aetiological factor for colorectal cancer. Previous research has not adequately exploited concentrations of folate in normal colonic mucosal biopsies to examine the issue. Methods: Logistic regression models were used to estimate ORs ...

  17. Temporal trends and future predictions of mercury concentrations in Northwest Greenland polar bear (Ursus maritimus) hair.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dietz, R; Born, E W; Rigét, F; Aubail, A; Sonne, C; Drimmie, R; Basu, N

    2011-02-15

    Hair samples from 117 Northwest Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) were taken during 1892-2008 and analyzed for total mercury (hereafter Hg). The sample represented 28 independent years and the aim of the study was to analyze for temporal Hg trends. Mercury concentrations showed yearly significant increases of 1.6-1.7% (p polar bear Hg exposure is 95.6-96.2% anthropogenic in its origin. Assuming a continued anthropogenic increase, this model estimated concentrations in 2050 and 2100 will be 40- and 92-fold the baseline concentration, respectively, which is equivalent to a 97.5 and 98.9% man-made contribution. None of the 2001-2008 concentrations of Hg in Northwest Greenland polar bear hair exceeded the general guideline values of 20-30 μg/g dry weight for terrestrial wildlife, whereas the neurochemical effect level of 5.4 μg Hg/g dry weight proposed for East Greenland polar bears was exceeded in 93.5% of the cases. These results call for detailed effect studies in main target organs such as brain, liver, kidney, and sexual organs in the Northwest Greenland polar bears.

  18. Vegetative biomass predicts inflorescence production along a CO2 concentration gradient in mesic grassland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atmospheric CO2 concentration will likely exceed 500 uL L-1 by 2050, often increasing plant community productivity in part by increasing abundance of species favored by increased CA. Whether increased abundance translates to increased inflorescence production is poorly understood, and is important ...

  19. A simple model for predicting solute concentration in agricultural tile lines shortly after application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. S. Steenhuis

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural tile drainage lines have been implicated as a source of pesticide contamination of surface waters. Field experiments were conducted and a simple model was developed to examine preferential transport of applied chemicals to agricultural tile lines. The conceptual model consists of two linear reservoirs, one near the soil surface and one near the tile drain. The connection between the two reservoirs is via preferential flow paths with very little interaction with the soil matrix. The model assumes that only part of the field contributes solutes to the tile drain. The model was evaluated with data from the field experiments in which chloride, 2,4-D, and atrazine concentrations were measured on eight tile-drained plots that were irrigated twice. Atrazine was applied two months prior to the experiment, 2,4-D was sprayed just before the first irrigation, and chloride before the second irrigation. All three chemicals were found in the tile effluent shortly after the rainfall began. Generally, the concentration increased with increased flow rates and decreased exponentially after the rainfall ceased. Although the simple model could simulate the observed chloride concentration patterns in the tile outflow for six of the eight plots, strict validation was not possible because of the difficulty with independent measurement of the data needed for a preferential flow model applied to field conditions. The results show that, to simulate pesticide concentration in tile lines, methods that can measure field averaged preferential flow characteristics need to be developed.

  20. The use of crude protein content to predict concentrations of lysine ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Correlations were determined between the crude protein (CP) and lysine or methionine concentrations of grain from wheat (cultivar: palmiet), barley (cultivar: clipper) and triticale (cultivar: usgen 19) grown in the Western Cape region of South Africa. Twenty samples of varying CP content were collected for each grain type ...

  1. Prediction of daily fine particulate matter concentrations using aerosol optical depth retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chudnovsky, Alexandra A; Lee, Hyung Joo; Kostinski, Alex; Kotlov, Tanya; Koutrakis, Petros

    2012-09-01

    Although ground-level PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter < 2.5 microm) monitoring sites provide accurate measurements, their spatial coverage within a given region is limited and thus often insufficient for exposure and epidemiological studies. Satellite data expand spatial coverage, enhancing our ability to estimate location- and/or subject-specific exposures to PM2.5. In this study, the authors apply a mixed-effects model approach to aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) to predict PM2.5 concentrations within the New England area of the United States. With this approach, it is possible to control for the inherent day-to-day variability in the AOD-PM2.5 relationship, which depends on time-varying parameters such as particle optical properties, vertical and diurnal concentration profiles, and ground surface reflectance. The model-predicted PM2.5 mass concentration are highly correlated with the actual observations, R2 = 0.92. Therefore, adjustment for the daily variability in AOD-PM2.5 relationship allows obtaining spatially resolved PM2.5 concentration data that can be of great value to future exposure assessment and epidemiological studies. The authors demonstrated how AOD can be used reliably to predict daily PM2.5 mass concentrations, providing determination of their spatial and temporal variability. Promising results are found by adjusting for daily variability in the AOD-PM2.5 relationship, without the need to account for a wide variety of individual additional parameters. This approach is of a great potential to investigate the associations between subject-specific exposures to PM2.5 and their health effects. Higher 4 x 4-km resolution GOES AOD retrievals comparing with the conventional MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 10-km product has the potential to capture PM2.5 variability within the urban domain.

  2. Neural network model for the prediction of PM10 daily concentrations in two sites in the Western Mediterranean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Gennaro, Gianluigi; Trizio, Livia; Di Gilio, Alessia; Pey, Jorge; Pérez, Noemi; Cusack, Michael; Alastuey, Andrés; Querol, Xavier

    2013-10-01

    An artificial neural network (ANN) was developed and tested to forecast PM10 daily concentration in two contrasted environments in NE Spain, a regional background site (Montseny), and an urban background site (Barcelona-CSIC), which was highly influenced by vehicular emissions. In order to predict 24-h average PM10 concentrations, the artificial neural network previously developed by Caselli et al. (2009) was improved by using hourly PM concentrations and deterministic factors such as a Saharan dust alert. In particular, the model input data for prediction were the hourly PM10 concentrations 1-day in advance, local meteorological data and information about air masses origin. The forecasted performance indexes for both sites were calculated and they showed better results for the regional background site in Montseny (R(2)=0.86, SI=0.75) than for urban site in Barcelona (R(2)=0.73, SI=0.58), influenced by local and sometimes unexpected sources. Moreover, a sensitivity analysis conducted to understand the importance of the different variables included among the input data, showed that local meteorology and air masses origin are key factors in the model forecasts. This result explains the reason for the improvement of ANN's forecasting performance at the Montseny site with respect to the Barcelona site. Moreover, the artificial neural network developed in this work could prove useful to predict PM10 concentrations, especially, at regional background sites such as those on the Mediterranean Basin which are primarily affected by long-range transports. Hence, the artificial neural network presented here could be a powerful tool for obtaining real time information on air quality status and could aid stakeholders in their development of cost-effective control strategies. © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Radon exhalation of hardening concrete: monitoring cement hydration and prediction of radon concentration in construction site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovler, Konstantin

    2006-01-01

    The unique properties of radon as a noble gas are used for monitoring cement hydration and microstructural transformations in cementitious system. It is found that the radon concentration curve for hydrating cement paste enclosed in the chamber increases from zero (more accurately - background) concentrations, similar to unhydrated cement. However, radon concentrations developed within 3 days in the test chamber containing cement paste were approximately 20 times higher than those of unhydrated cement. This fact proves the importance of microstructural transformations taking place in the process of cement hydration, in comparison with cement grain, which is a time-stable material. It is concluded that monitoring cement hydration by means of radon exhalation method makes it possible to distinguish between three main stages, which are readily seen in the time dependence of radon concentration: stage I (dormant period), stage II (setting and intensive microstructural transformations) and stage III (densification of the structure and drying). The information presented improves our understanding of the main physical mechanisms resulting in the characteristic behavior of radon exhalation in the course of cement hydration. The maximum value of radon exhalation rate observed, when cement sets, can reach 0.6 mBq kg(-1) s(-1) and sometimes exceeds 1.0 mBq kg(-1) s(-1). These values exceed significantly to those known before for cementitious materials. At the same time, the minimum ventilation rate accepted in the design practice (0.5 h(-1)), guarantees that the concentrations in most of the cases will not exceed the action level and that they are not of any radiological concern for construction workers employed in concreting in closed spaces.

  4. Pediatric differentiated thyroid carcinoma in stage I: risk factor analysis for disease free survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wada, Nobuyuki; Rino, Yasushi; Masuda, Munetaka; Ito, Koichi; Sugino, Kiminori; Mimura, Takashi; Nagahama, Mitsuji; Kitagawa, Wataru; Shibuya, Hiroshi; Ohkuwa, Keiko; Nakayama, Hirotaka; Hirakawa, Shohei

    2009-01-01

    To examine the outcomes and risk factors in pediatric differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC) patients who were defined as TNM stage I because some patients develop disease recurrence but treatment strategy for such stage I pediatric patients is still controversial. We reviewed 57 consecutive TNM stage I patients (15 years or less) with DTC (46 papillary and 11 follicular) who underwent initial treatment at Ito Hospital between 1962 and 2004 (7 males and 50 females; mean age: 13.1 years; mean follow-up: 17.4 years). Clinicopathological results were evaluated in all patients. Multivariate analysis was performed to reveal the risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS) in these 57 patients. Extrathyroid extension and clinical lymphadenopathy at diagnosis were found in 7 and 12 patients, respectively. Subtotal/total thyroidectomy was performed in 23 patients, modified neck dissection in 38, and radioactive iodine therapy in 10. Pathological node metastasis was confirmed in 37 patients (64.9%). Fifteen patients (26.3%) exhibited local recurrence and 3 of them also developed metachronous lung metastasis. Ten of these 15 achieved disease-free after further treatments and no patients died of disease. In multivariate analysis, male gender (p = 0.017), advanced tumor (T3, 4a) stage (p = 0.029), and clinical lymphadenopathy (p = 0.006) were risk factors for DFS in stage I pediatric patients. Male gender, tumor stage, and lymphadenopathy are risk factors for DFS in stage I pediatric DTC patients. Aggressive treatment (total thyroidectomy, node dissection, and RI therapy) is considered appropriate for patients with risk factors, whereas conservative or stepwise approach may be acceptable for other patients

  5. Prediction of suspended-sediment concentrations at selected sites in the Fountain Creek watershed, Colorado, 2008-09

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stogner, Sr., Robert W.; Nelson, Jonathan M.; McDonald, Richard R.; Kinzel, Paul J.; Mau, David P.

    2013-01-01

    In 2008, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Pikes Peak Area Council of Governments, Colorado Water Conservation Board, Colorado Springs City Engineering, and the Lower Arkansas Valley Water Conservancy District, began a small-scale pilot study to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of a computational model of streamflow and suspended-sediment transport for predicting suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the Fountain Creek watershed in Colorado. Increased erosion and sedimentation damage have been identified by the Fountain Creek Watershed Plan as key problems within the watershed. A recommendation in the Fountain Creek Watershed plan for management of the basin is to establish measurable criteria to determine if progress in reducing erosion and sedimentation damage is being made. The major objective of this study was to test a computational method to predict local suspended-sediment loads at two sites with different geomorphic characteristics in order to evaluate the feasibility of using such an approach to predict local suspended-sediment loads throughout the entire watershed. Detailed topographic surveys, particle-size data, and suspended-sediment samples were collected at two gaged sites: Monument Creek above Woodmen Road at Colorado Springs, Colorado (USGS gage 07103970), and Sand Creek above mouth at Colorado Springs, Colorado (USGS gage 07105600). These data were used to construct three-dimensional computational models of relatively short channel reaches at each site. The streamflow component of these models predicted a spatially distributed field of water-surface elevation, water velocity, and bed shear stress for a range of stream discharges. Using the model predictions, along with measured particle sizes, the sediment-transport component of the model predicted the suspended-sediment concentration throughout the reach of interest. These computed concentrations were used with predicted flow patterns and channel morphology to

  6. Predicting the concentration of verotoxin-producing Escherichia coli bacteria during processing and storage of fermented raw-meat sausages.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinto, E J; Arinder, P; Axelsson, L; Heir, E; Holck, A; Lindqvist, R; Lindblad, M; Andreou, P; Lauzon, H L; Marteinsson, V Þ; Pin, C

    2014-05-01

    A model to predict the population density of verotoxigenic Escherichia coli (VTEC) throughout the elaboration and storage of fermented raw-meat sausages (FRMS) was developed. Probabilistic and kinetic measurement data sets collected from publicly available resources were completed with new measurements when required and used to quantify the dependence of VTEC growth and inactivation on the temperature, pH, water activity (aw), and concentration of lactic acid. Predictions were compared with observations in VTEC-contaminated FRMS manufactured in a pilot plant. Slight differences in the reduction of VTEC were predicted according to the fermentation temperature, 24 or 34°C, with greater inactivation at the highest temperature. The greatest reduction was observed during storage at high temperatures. A population decrease greater than 6 decimal logarithmic units was observed after 66 days of storage at 25°C, while a reduction of only ca. 1 logarithmic unit was detected at 12°C. The performance of our model and other modeling approaches was evaluated throughout the processing of dry and semidry FRMS. The greatest inactivation of VTEC was predicted in dry FRMS with long drying periods, while the smallest reduction was predicted in semidry FMRS with short drying periods. The model is implemented in a computing tool, E. coli SafeFerment (EcSF), freely available from http://www.ifr.ac.uk/safety/EcoliSafeFerment. EcSF integrates growth, probability of growth, and thermal and nonthermal inactivation models to predict the VTEC concentration throughout FRMS manufacturing and storage under constant or fluctuating environmental conditions.

  7. Prediction of Hexaconazole Concentration in the Top Most Layer of Oil Palm Plantation Soil Using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maznah, Zainol; Halimah, Muhamad; Shitan, Mahendran; Kumar Karmokar, Provash; Najwa, Sulaiman

    2017-01-01

    Ganoderma boninense is a fungus that can affect oil palm trees and cause a serious disease called the basal stem root (BSR). This disease causes the death of more than 80% of oil palm trees midway through their economic life and hexaconazole is one of the particular fungicides that can control this fungus. Hexaconazole can be applied by the soil drenching method and it will be of interest to know the concentration of the residue in the soil after treatment with respect to time. Hence, a field study was conducted in order to determine the actual concentration of hexaconazole in soil. In the present paper, a new approach that can be used to predict the concentration of pesticides in the soil is proposed. The statistical analysis revealed that the Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) techniques would be appropriate in this study. The EDA techniques were used to fit a robust resistant model and predict the concentration of the residue in the topmost layer of the soil.

  8. Prediction of Hexaconazole Concentration in the Top Most Layer of Oil Palm Plantation Soil Using Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zainol Maznah

    Full Text Available Ganoderma boninense is a fungus that can affect oil palm trees and cause a serious disease called the basal stem root (BSR. This disease causes the death of more than 80% of oil palm trees midway through their economic life and hexaconazole is one of the particular fungicides that can control this fungus. Hexaconazole can be applied by the soil drenching method and it will be of interest to know the concentration of the residue in the soil after treatment with respect to time. Hence, a field study was conducted in order to determine the actual concentration of hexaconazole in soil. In the present paper, a new approach that can be used to predict the concentration of pesticides in the soil is proposed. The statistical analysis revealed that the Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA techniques would be appropriate in this study. The EDA techniques were used to fit a robust resistant model and predict the concentration of the residue in the topmost layer of the soil.

  9. Can we predict uranium bioavailability based on soil parameters? Part 1: Effect of soil parameters on soil solution uranium concentration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vandenhove, H.; Hees, M. van; Wouters, K.; Wannijn, J.

    2007-01-01

    Present study aims to quantify the influence of soil parameters on soil solution uranium concentration for 238 U spiked soils. Eighteen soils collected under pasture were selected such that they covered a wide range for those parameters hypothesised as being potentially important in determining U sorption. Maximum soil solution uranium concentrations were observed at alkaline pH, high inorganic carbon content and low cation exchange capacity, organic matter content, clay content, amorphous Fe and phosphate levels. Except for the significant correlation between the solid-liquid distribution coefficients (K d , L kg -1 ) and the organic matter content (R 2 = 0.70) and amorphous Fe content (R 2 = 0.63), there was no single soil parameter significantly explaining the soil solution uranium concentration (which varied 100-fold). Above pH = 6, log(K d ) was linearly related with pH [log(K d ) = - 1.18 pH + 10.8, R 2 = 0.65]. Multiple linear regression analysis did result in improved predictions of the soil solution uranium concentration but the model was complex. - Uranium solubility in soil can be predicted from organic matter or amorphous iron content and pH or with complex multilinear models considering several soil parameters

  10. Plasma triacylglycerol and coagulation factor concentrations predict the anticoagulant effect of dietary fish oil in overweight subjects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vanschoonbeek, Kristof; Feijge, Marion A H; Saris, Wim H M

    2007-01-01

    fish-oil effects. In study 1, 54 overweight subjects consumed 3.1 g (n-3) PUFA daily. In study 2, which involved 42 overweight patients with type 2 diabetes, 20 subjects consumed (n-3) PUFA, whereas 22 others ingested a preparation rich in (n-6) PUFA. Tissue factor-induced thrombin generation (thrombin...... potential) was determined as an integrated measure of plasma coagulant activity. In both studies, multivariate analysis indicated a strong clustering of fasting concentrations of triacylglycerols, prothrombin, factor V, factor VII, and factor X with one another at baseline. This cluster of factors......-induced lowering of triacylglycerol and coagulation factor V, VII, and X concentrations, and thrombin generation. We conclude that high fasting triacylglycerol concentrations predict high procoagulant activity and a lowering of thrombin potential with dietary fish oil....

  11. Ground-truthing predicted indoor radon concentrations by using soil-gas radon measurements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reimer, G.M.

    2001-01-01

    Predicting indoor radon potential has gained in importance even as the national radon programs began to wane. A cooperative study to produce radon potential maps was conducted by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Department of Energy (DOE), and Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL) with the latter taking the lead role. A county-wide predictive model based dominantly on the National Uranium Resource Evaluation (NURE) aerorad data and secondly on geology, both small-scale data bases was developed. However, that model breaks down in counties of complex geology and does not provide a means to evaluate the potential of an individual home or building site. Soil-gas radon measurements on a large scale are currently shown to provide information for estimating radon potential at individual sites sort out the complex geology so that the small-scale prediction index can be validated. An example from Frederick County, Maryland indicates a positive correlation between indoor measurements and soil-gas data. The method does not rely on a single measurement, but a series that incorporate seasonal and meteorological considerations. (author)

  12. Models and data to predict radionuclide concentrations in river basin systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, G.; Rufai, G.G.

    1990-01-01

    Radioactive contamination of land may result from the detonation of nuclear weapons or nuclear accidents, such as Chernobyl. The deposition of fallout on soil and/or plants, and subsequent erosion by rainsplash and overland flow, could introduce radioactive isotopes into the water and soil resources of the environment. A model to simulate the transport and deposition of concentrated pollutants and radionuclides within the river basin is proposed. The proposed model is built on an existing Strathclyde River Basin Model, (SRBM), which has the potential to simulate runoff and erosion and the distribution of eroded soil particle sizes. An algorithm of the processes of concentration of pollutants and radionuclides can be developed based on the current understanding of the process of radionuclide attachment to soil particles. (author)

  13. Monitoring and predicting the fecal indicator bacteria concentrations from agricultural, mixed land use and urban stormwater runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paule-Mercado, M A; Ventura, J S; Memon, S A; Jahng, D; Kang, J-H; Lee, C-H

    2016-04-15

    While the urban runoff are increasingly being studied as a source of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB), less is known about the occurrence of FIB in watershed with mixed land use and ongoing land use and land cover (LULC) change. In this study, Escherichia coli (EC) and fecal streptococcus (FS) were monitored from 2012 to 2013 in agricultural, mixed and urban LULC and analyzed according to the most probable number (MPN). Pearson correlation was used to determine the relationship between FIB and environmental parameters (physicochemical and hydrometeorological). Multiple linear regressions (MLR) were used to identify the significant parameters that affect the FIB concentrations and to predict the response of FIB in LULC change. Overall, the FIB concentrations were higher in urban LULC (EC=3.33-7.39; FS=3.30-7.36log10MPN/100mL) possibly because of runoff from commercial market and 100% impervious cover (IC). Also, during early-summer season; this reflects a greater persistence and growth rate of FIB in a warmer environment. During intra-event, however, the FIB concentrations varied according to site condition. Anthropogenic activities and IC influenced the correlation between the FIB concentrations and environmental parameters. Stormwater temperature (TEMP), turbidity, and TSS positively correlated with the FIB concentrations (p>0.01), since IC increased, implying an accumulation of bacterial sources in urban activities. TEMP, BOD5, turbidity, TSS, and antecedent dry days (ADD) were the most significant explanatory variables for FIB as determined in MLR, possibly because they promoted the FIB growth and survival. The model confirmed the FIB concentrations: EC (R(2)=0.71-0.85; NSE=0.72-0.86) and FS (R(2)=0.65-0.83; NSE=0.66-0.84) are predicted to increase due to urbanization. Therefore, these findings will help in stormwater monitoring strategies, designing the best management practice for FIB removal and as input data for stormwater models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B

  14. Plasma concentrations of free triiodothyronine predict weight change in euthyroid persons2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortega, Emilio; Pannacciulli, Nicola; Bogardus, Clifton; Krakoff, Jonathan

    2007-01-01

    Background Factors that influence energy metabolism and substrate oxidation, such as thyroid hormones (THs), may be important regulators of body weight. Objective We investigated associations of THs cross-sectionally with obesity, energy expenditure, and substrate oxidation and prospectively with weight change. Design Euthyroid, nondiabetic, healthy, adult Pima Indians (n = 89; 47 M, 42 F) were studied. Percentage body fat (%BF) was measured by using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry; sleeping metabolic rate (SMR), respiratory quotient, and substrate oxidation rates were measured in a respiratory chamber. Thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), free thyroxine (T4), free triiodothyronine (T3), and leptin concentrations were measured in fasting plasma samples. Results TSH, but neither free T3 nor free T4, was associated with %BF and leptin concentrations (r = 0.27 and 0.29, respectively; both: P ≤ 0.01). In multiple regression analyses adjusted for age, sex, fat mass, and fat-free mass, free T3 was a positive predictor of SMR (P = 0.02). After adjustment for age, sex, %BF, and energy balance, free T3 was a negative predictor of 24-h respiratory quotient (P < 0.05) and a positive predictor of 24-h lipid oxidation rate (P = 0.006). Prospectively, after an average follow-up of 4 ± 2 y, the mean increase in weight was 3 ± 9 kg. Baseline T3 concentrations were associated with absolute and annual percentage of changes in weight (r = −0.27, P = 0.02, and r = −0.28, P = 0.009, for the age-and sex-adjusted associations, respectively). Conclusions In euthyroid Pima Indians, lower free T3 but not free T4 concentrations were an independent predictor of SMR and lipid oxidation and a predictor of weight gain. This finding indicates that control of T4-to-T3 conversion may play a role in body weight regulation. PMID:17284741

  15. Dorsolateral Prefrontal Cortex GABA Concentration in Humans Predicts Working Memory Load Processing Capacity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, Jong H; Grandelis, Anthony; Maddock, Richard J

    2016-11-16

    The discovery of neural mechanisms of working memory (WM) would significantly enhance our understanding of complex human behaviors and guide treatment development for WM-related impairments found in neuropsychiatric conditions and aging. Although the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) has long been considered critical for WM, we still know little about the neural elements and pathways within the DLPFC that support WM in humans. In this study, we tested whether an individual's DLPFC gamma-aminobutryic acid (GABA) content predicts individual differences in WM task performance using a novel behavioral approach. Twenty-three healthy adults completed a task that measured the unique contribution of major WM components (memory load, maintenance, and distraction resistance) to performance. This was done to address the possibility that components have differing GABA dependencies and the failure to parse WM into components would lead to missing true associations with GABA. The subjects then had their DLPFC GABA content measured by single-voxel proton magnetic spectroscopy. We found that individuals with lower DLPFC GABA showed greater performance degradation with higher load, accounting for 31% of variance, p (corrected) = 0.015. This relationship was component, neurochemical, and brain region specific. DLPFC GABA content did not predict performance sensitivity to other components tested; DLPFC glutamate + glutamine and visual cortical GABA content did not predict load sensitivity. These results confirm the involvement of DLPFC GABA in WM load processing in humans and implicate factors controlling DLPFC GABA content in the neural mechanisms of WM and its impairments. This study demonstrated for the first time that the amount of gamma-aminobutryic acid (GABA), the major inhibitory neurotransmitter of the brain, in an individual's prefrontal cortex predicts working memory (WM) task performance. Given that WM is required for many of the most characteristic cognitive and

  16. Bradsim-prediction of solute concentration. Temperature and physical property profiles along pulsed plate columns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Logsdail, D.H.; Evans, S.F.; Jenkins, J.A.; Smith, I.J.

    1988-01-01

    Dynamic model of the operation of the BRADSIM pulsed plate column is developed. Examples of simulation of the pures process extraction system are given. Profiles of dissolved substances concentrations and profiles of physical properties of liquid along the column are provided. Calculated values are compared with the experimental data, obtained in case of the column 50 mm in diameter, Harwell extractional facility and Sellafield pulsed column 300 mm in diameter for extraction systems uranyl nitrate-nitric acid-20% and 30% TBP in kerosene. 2 refs.; 6 figs

  17. The impact of bone marrow micrometastases on metastatic disease-free survival in patients with colorectal carcinoma.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    O'Connor, O J

    2012-02-03

    AIMS: The biological relevance of bone marrow micrometastases (BMM) in colorectal cancer remains unknown. Here, we investigate their nature by examining the impact of the presence of BMM on metastatic disease-free survival in a cohort of patients with this disease. METHODS: Sixty-three consecutive patients undergoing surgery for colorectal cancer of any stage were studied after approval of the study protocol by the local ethics committee and with full individual informed consent. All had bilateral iliac crest bone marrow aspirates prior to operation. Aspirates were then examined for the presence of aberrant cytokeratin-18-positive cells by a blinded observer using both flow cytometric and APAAP immunohistochemical techniques. RESULTS: Mean follow-up after surgery was 4.6 years (range 1.9-6.9) for those without hepatic metastases at diagnosis. Seven of 34 patients with Dukes\\' stage A or B developed metastatic disease after a mean interval of 4.7 years (range 3.8-6.8). However, only 2 of these patients demonstrated BMM at the time of surgery. Nine of 15 patients with Dukes\\' C carcinoma at the time of surgery subsequently developed metastases after a mean interval of 4.4 years (range 1.9-6.9). Again, only two of these patients had BMM detectable initially. In only three of the 14 patients known to have metastases at the time of operation (i.e. Dukes\\'\\'D\\' disease) were BMM found. CONCLUSION: The presence of BMM as detected by this methodology was not predictive of tumour recurrence or metastasis. This study does not support the consideration of adjuvant therapy based on the presence of BMM at a single pre-operative time point in patients with colorectal cancer.

  18. Predicting Groundwater Chlorine Concentration in Dezful Aquifer Using the Panel Data Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ghazaleh Hadighanavat

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater resources are of great importance in arid and semi-arid regions due to their ease of access and low extraction costs. Compared to studies conducted on the quantity of groundwater resources, less research has been devoted to groundwater qulity. The present study was thus designed and implemented to forecast groundwater chlorine variations in Dazful Plain in Khuzistan Province, Iran. " Panel data" is a regression model that considers variables of different units over time. In this study, it was exploitedfor the simultaneous prediction of groundwater quality in different wells. For this purpose, meteorological parameters such as rain and ET0 as well as the quality parameters including EC, sodium, calcium, and magnesium were collected in ten wells in the study area on a seasonal basis over a period of 8 years. In the next step, the data thus collected were subjected to different "panel data" regression models including Common Effects, Fixed Effects, and Random Effects. The results showed that the Random Effects Regression Model was best suited for predicting groundwater quality. Moreover, performance indicators (R2= 0.96, RMSE= 2.445 revealed the effectiveness of this method.

  19. Glutamine/glutamate (Glx) concentration in prefrontal cortex predicts reversal learning performance in the marmoset.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacreuse, Agnès; Moore, Constance M; LaClair, Matthew; Payne, Laurellee; King, Jean A

    2018-07-02

    This study used Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy (MRS) to identify potential neurometabolitic markers of cognitive performance in male (n = 7) and female (n = 8) middle-aged (∼5 years old) common marmosets (Callithrix jacchus). Anesthetized marmosets were scanned with a 4.7 T/40 cm horizontal magnet equipped with 450 mT/m magnetic field gradients and a 20 G/cm magnetic field gradient insert, within 3 months of completing the CANTAB serial Reversal Learning task. Neurometabolite concentrations of N-Acetyl Asparate, Myo-Inositol, Choline, Phosphocreatine + creatine, Glutamate and Glutamine were acquired from a 3 mm 3 voxel positioned in the Prefrontal Cortex (PFC). Males acquired the reversals (but not simple discriminations) faster than the females. Higher PFC Glx (glutamate + glutamine) concentration was associated with faster acquisition of the reversals. Interestingly, the correlation between cognitive performance and Glx was significant in males, but not in females. These results suggest that MRS is a useful tool to identify biochemical markers of cognitive performance in the healthy nonhuman primate brain and that biological sex modulates the relationship between neurochemical composition and cognition. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO PREDICT NICKEL CONCENTRATION IN KARAJ RIVER SEDIMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Ramezankhani, A. A. M. Sharif, M. T. Sadatipour, R.Abdolahzadeh

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The contamination of surface waters through human activities has been intensified over the past years as population density has increased. Nickel is a metallic element and fuel combustion, nickel mining, refining waste, sewage sludge, and incineration are the major sources of nickel propagation. Nickel from various industrial wastewaters and other sources finally are disposed into water bodies. In this work, Karaj river was considered from 50º to 50º 14´longitudes and 35º 45´ to 35º 58´ latitudes and the presence of nickel was also assessed in this area. Sixteen stations were randomly selected and sediment samples were collected in polyethylene containers. Some water quality parameters such as pH, temperature, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, were determind by direct on-site measurements. To measure COD, 16 water samples were collected in dark bottles and transferred to laboratory spatial parameters such as slope and distance from start point were also calculated by ARCGIS 9.2. The relation between Ni concentration with spatial parameters and water quality parameters were obtained by multivariate analysis. Results showed that there was a significant relation between Ni concentration in sediments and distance from start point and electrical conductivity.

  1. Developing a computer-controlled simulated digestion system to predict the concentration of metabolizable energy of feedstuffs for rooster.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, F; Ren, L Q; Mi, B M; Tan, H Z; Zhao, J T; Li, H; Zhang, H F; Zhang, Z Y

    2014-04-01

    Four experiments were conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of a computer-controlled simulated digestion system (CCSDS) for predicting apparent metabolizable energy (AME) and true metabolizable energy (TME) using in vitro digestible energy (IVDE) content of feeds for roosters. In Exp. 1, the repeatability of the IVDE assay was tested in corn, wheat, rapeseed meal, and cottonseed meal with 3 assays of each sample and each with 5 replicates of the same sample. In Exp. 2, the additivity of IVDE concentration in corn, soybean meal, and cottonseed meal was tested by comparing determined IVDE values of the complete diet with values predicted from measurements on individual ingredients. In Exp. 3, linear models to predict AME and TME based on IVDE were developed with 16 calibration samples. In Exp. 4, the accuracy of prediction models was tested by the differences between predicted and determined values for AME or TME of 6 ingredients and 4 diets. In Exp. 1, the mean CV of IVDE was 0.88% (range = 0.20 to 2.14%) for corn, wheat, rapeseed meal, and cottonseed meal. No difference in IVDE was observed between 3 assays of an ingredient, indicating that the IVDE assay is repeatable under these conditions. In Exp. 2, minimal differences (<21 kcal/kg) were observed between determined and calculated IVDE of 3 complete diets formulated with corn, soybean meal, and cottonseed meal, demonstrating that the IVDE values are additive in a complete diet. In Exp. 3, linear relationships between AME and IVDE and between TME and IVDE were observed in 16 calibration samples: AME = 1.062 × IVDE - 530 (R(2) = 0.97, residual standard deviation [RSD] = 146 kcal/kg, P < 0.001) and TME = 1.050 × IVDE - 16 (R(2) = 0.97, RSD = 148 kcal/kg, P < 0.001). Differences of less than 100 kcal/kg were observed between determined and predicted values in 10 and 9 of the 16 calibration samples for AME and TME, respectively. In Exp. 4, differences of less than 100 kcal/kg between determined and predicted

  2. Predicting phosphorus concentrations in British rivers resulting from the introduction of improved phosphorus removal from sewage effluent

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bowes, Michael J.; Neal, Colin; Jarvie, Helen P.; Smith, Jim T.; Davies, Helen N.

    2010-01-01

    Phosphorus (P) concentration and flow data gathered during the 1990s for a range of British rivers were used to determine the relative contributions of point and diffuse inputs to the total P load, using the Load Apportionment Model (LAM). Heavily urbanised catchments were dominated by sewage inputs, but the majority of the study catchments received most of their annual phosphorus load from diffuse sources. Despite this, almost 80% of the study sites were dominated by point source inputs for the majority of the year, particularly during summer periods when eutrophication risk is greatest. This highlights the need to reduce sewage P inputs to improve the ecological status of British rivers. These modelled source apportionment estimates were validated against land-use data and boron load (a chemical marker for sewage). The LAM was applied to river flow data in subsequent years, to give predicted P concentrations (assuming no change in P source inputs), and these estimates were compared with observed concentration data. This showed that there had been significant reductions in P concentration in the River Thames, Aire and Ouse in the period 1999 to 2002, which were attributable to the introduction of P stripping at sewage treatment works (STW). The model was then used to forecast P concentrations resulting from the introduction of P removal at STW to a 2 or 1 mg l -1 consent limit. For the urbanised rivers in this study, the introduction of phosphorus stripping to a 1 mg l -1 consent level at all STW in the catchment would not reduce P concentrations in the rivers to potentially limiting concentrations. Therefore, further sewage P stripping will be required to comply with the Water Framework Directive. Diffuse P inputs may also need to be reduced before some of the highly nutrient-enriched rivers achieve good ecological status.

  3. The use of Chernobyl data to test model predictions for interindividual variability of 137Cs concentrations in humans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, F. Owen; Thiessen, Kathleen M.

    1996-01-01

    Data sets assembled in the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident as a part of the International Atomic Energy Agency's model testing program (VAMP) have provided a rare opportunity for 'blind-testing' predictions made with exposure assessment models. Measurements of Chernobyl-derived 137 Cs in Central Bohemia (Czech Republic) and southern Finland were used to test model predictions for a number of endpoints, including the distribution of whole-body concentrations of 137 Cs in adults in these regions at specified time points. This test endpoint required separation of uncertainty due to stochastic variability (aleatoric uncertainty) and uncertainty due to lack of knowledge about fixed but unknown values (epistemic uncertainty). Predictions of the distribution of whole-body 137 Cs concentrations were made by a minority of the participants in these model-testing exercises. Major reasons for misprediction included bias in the bioavailability of 137 Cs in soil and misestimation of the total intake of 137 Cs in the diet. Overestimation of the amount of interindividual variability often resulted from confusion of uncertainty with variability. The spreads of the distributions for parameters describing interindividual variability were frequently increased to compensate for lack of knowledge about the uptake and metabolism of 137 Cs in the population. Accurate results produced by participants are attributable both to a participant's access to additional site-specific data or choice of appropriate site-specific assumptions and to the effects of compensatory errors

  4. A Calibration to Predict the Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide by Prompt Gamma Analysis Revision 2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narlesky, Joshua Edward [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Kelly, Elizabeth J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-09-10

    This report documents the new PG calibration regression equation. These calibration equations incorporate new data that have become available since revision 1 of “A Calibration to Predict the Concentrations of Impurities in Plutonium Oxide by Prompt Gamma Analysis” was issued [3] The calibration equations are based on a weighted least squares (WLS) approach for the regression. The WLS method gives each data point its proper amount of influence over the parameter estimates. This gives two big advantages, more precise parameter estimates and better and more defensible estimates of uncertainties. The WLS approach makes sense both statistically and experimentally because the variances increase with concentration, and there are physical reasons that the higher measurements are less reliable and should be less influential. The new magnesium calibration includes a correction for sodium and separate calibration equation for items with and without chlorine. These additional calibration equations allow for better predictions and smaller uncertainties for sodium in materials with and without chlorine. Chlorine and sodium have separate equations for RICH materials. Again, these equations give better predictions and smaller uncertainties chlorine and sodium for RICH materials.

  5. [Carboxyhemoglobin concentration in carbon monoxide poisoning. Critical appraisal of the predictive value].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Köthe, L; Radke, J

    2010-06-01

    In cases of unclear depression of conciousness, arrhythmia and symptoms of cardiac insufficiency inadvertent carbon monoxide intoxication should always be taken into consideration. Rapid diagnosis of acute carbon monoxide intoxication with mostly unspecific symptoms requires an immediate supply of high dose oxygen which enables a distinct reduction of mortality and long-term morbidity. Levels of carboxyhemoglobin, however, should not be used as a parameter to decide whether to supply normobaric or the more efficient hyperbaric oxygen. There is no sufficient coherence between carboxyhemoglobin blood levels and clinical symptoms. Increased carboxyhemoglobin concentrations help to diagnose acute carbon monoxide intoxication but do not allow conclusions to be drawn about possible long-term neuropsychiatric or cardiac consequences.

  6. The predicted impact of VOCs from Marijuana cultivation operations on ozone concentrations in great Denver, CO.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, C. T.; Vizuete, W.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Ashworth, K.

    2016-12-01

    Colorado is the first the marijuana legal states in the United States since 2014. As a result, thousands of legal Marijuana cultivation operations are at great Denver area now. Those Marijuana cultivation operations could be the potential to release a lot of biogenic VOCs, such as monoterpene(C10H16), alpha-pinene, and D-limonene. Those alkene species could rapidly increase the peroxy radicals and chemical reactions in the atmosphere, especially in the urban area which belong to VOC-limited ozone regime. These emissions will increase the ozone in Denver city, where is ozone non-attainment area. Some previous research explained the marijuana smoke and indoor air quality (Martyny, Serrano, Schaeffer, & Van Dyke, 2013) and the smell of marijuana chemical compounds(Rice & Koziel, 2015). However, there have been no studies discuss on identifying and assessing emission rate from marijuana and how those species impact on atmospheric chemistry and ozone concentration, and the marijuana emissions have been not considered in the national emission inventory, either. This research will use air quality model to identify the possibility of ozone impact by marijuana cultivation emission. The Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions, CAMx, are applied for this research to identify the impact of ozone concentration. This model is government regulatory model based on the Three-State Air Quality Modeling Study (3SAQS), which developed by UNC-Chapel Hill and ENVIRON in 2012. This model is used for evaluation and regulate the ozone impact in ozone non-attainment area, Denver city. The details of the 3SAQS model setup and protocol can be found in the 3SAQS report(UNC-IE, 2013). For the marijuana emission study scenarios, we assumed the monoterpene (C10H16) is the only emission species in air quality model and identify the ozone change in the model by the different quantity of emission rate from marijuana cultivation operations.

  7. Adapting SWAT hillslope erosion model to predict sediment concentrations and yields in large Basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigiak, Olga; Malagó, Anna; Bouraoui, Fayçal; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Poesen, Jean

    2015-12-15

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used worldwide for water quality assessment and planning. This paper aimed to assess and adapt SWAT hillslope sediment yield model (Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation, MUSLE) for applications in large basins, i.e. when spatial data is coarse and model units are large; and to develop a robust sediment calibration method for large regions. The Upper Danube Basin (132,000km(2)) was used as case study representative of large European Basins. The MUSLE was modified to reduce sensitivity of sediment yields to the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) size, and to identify appropriate algorithms for estimating hillslope length (L) and slope-length factor (LS). HRUs gross erosion was broadly calibrated against plot data and soil erosion map estimates. Next, mean annual SWAT suspended sediment concentrations (SSC, mg/L) were calibrated and validated against SSC data at 55 gauging stations (622 station-years). SWAT annual specific sediment yields in subbasin reaches (RSSY, t/km(2)/year) were compared to yields measured at 33 gauging stations (87station-years). The best SWAT configuration combined a MUSLE equation modified by the introduction of a threshold area of 0.01km(2) where L and LS were estimated with flow accumulation algorithms. For this configuration, the SSC residual interquartile was less than +/-15mg/L both for the calibration (1995-2004) and the validation (2005-2009) periods. The mean SSC percent bias for 1995-2009 was 24%. RSSY residual interquartile was within +/-10t/km(2)/year, with a mean RSSY percent bias of 12%. Residuals showed no bias with respect to drainage area, slope, or spatial distribution. The use of multiple data types at multiple sites enabled robust simulation of sediment concentrations and yields of the region. The MUSLE modifications are recommended for use in large basins. Based on SWAT simulations, we present a sediment budget for the Upper Danube Basin. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Leptin concentrations in response to acute stress predict subsequent intake of comfort foods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomiyama, A. Janet; Schamarek, Imke; Lustig, Robert H.; Kirschbaum, Clemens; Puterman, Eli; Havel, Peter J.; Epel, Elissa S.

    2012-01-01

    Both animals and humans show a tendency toward eating more “comfort food” (high fat, sweet food) after acute stress. Such stress eating may be contributing to the obesity epidemic, and it is important to understand the underlying psychobiological mechanisms. Prior investigations have studied what makes individuals eat more after stress; this study investigates what might make individuals eat less. Leptin has been shown to increase following a laboratory stressor, and is known to affect eating behavior. This study examined whether leptin reactivity accounts for individual differences in stress eating. To test this, we exposed forty women to standardized acute psychological laboratory stress (Trier Social Stress Test) while blood was sampled repeatedly for measurements of plasma leptin. We then measured food intake after the stressor in 29 of these women. Increasing leptin during the stressor predicted lower intake of comfort food. These initial findings suggest that acute changes in leptin may be one of the factors modulating down the consumption of comfort food following stress. PMID:22579988

  9. National-scale exposure prediction for long-term concentrations of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide in South Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun-Young; Song, Insang

    2017-07-01

    The limited spatial coverage of the air pollution data available from regulatory air quality monitoring networks hampers national-scale epidemiological studies of air pollution. The present study aimed to develop a national-scale exposure prediction model for estimating annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at residences in South Korea using regulatory monitoring data for 2010. Using hourly measurements of PM 10 and NO 2 at 277 regulatory monitoring sites, we calculated the annual average concentrations at each site. We also computed 322 geographic variables in order to represent plausible local and regional pollution sources. Using these data, we developed universal kriging models, including three summary predictors estimated by partial least squares (PLS). The model performance was evaluated with fivefold cross-validation. In sensitivity analyses, we compared our approach with two alternative approaches, which added regional interactions and replaced the PLS predictors with up to ten selected variables. Finally, we predicted the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 at 83,463 centroids of residential census output areas in South Korea to investigate the population exposure to these pollutants and to compare the exposure levels between monitored and unmonitored areas. The means of the annual average concentrations of PM 10 and NO 2 for 2010, across regulatory monitoring sites in South Korea, were 51.63 μg/m3 (SD = 8.58) and 25.64 ppb (11.05), respectively. The universal kriging exposure prediction models yielded cross-validated R 2 s of 0.45 and 0.82 for PM 10 and NO 2 , respectively. Compared to our model, the two alternative approaches gave consistent or worse performances. Population exposure levels in unmonitored areas were lower than in monitored areas. This is the first study that focused on developing a national-scale point wise exposure prediction approach in South Korea, which will allow national exposure assessments and

  10. A study on the prediction capability of GOTHIC and HYCA3D code for local hydrogen concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Y. S.; Lee, W. J.; Lee, J. J.; Park, K. C.

    2002-01-01

    In this study the prediction capability of GOTHIC and HYCA3D code for local hydrogen concentrations was verified with experimental results. Among the experiments, executed by SNU and other organization inside and outside of the country, the fast transient and the obstacle cases are selected. In case of large subcompartment both the code show good agreement with the experimental data. But in case of small and complex geometry or fast transient the results of GOTHIC code have the large difference from experimental ones. This represents that GOTHIC code is unsuitable for these cases. On the contrary HTCA3D code agrees well with all the experimental data

  11. Prediction of meat spectral patterns based on optical properties and concentrations of the major constituents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    ElMasry, Gamal; Nakauchi, Shigeki

    2016-03-01

    A simulation method for approximating spectral signatures of minced meat samples was developed depending on concentrations and optical properties of the major chemical constituents. Minced beef samples of different compositions scanned on a near-infrared spectroscopy and on a hyperspectral imaging system were examined. Chemical composition determined heuristically and optical properties collected from authenticated references were simulated to approximate samples' spectral signatures. In short-wave infrared range, the resulting spectrum equals the sum of the absorption of three individual absorbers, that is, water, protein, and fat. By assuming homogeneous distributions of the main chromophores in the mince samples, the obtained absorption spectra are found to be a linear combination of the absorption spectra of the major chromophores present in the sample. Results revealed that developed models were good enough to derive spectral signatures of minced meat samples with a reasonable level of robustness of a high agreement index value more than 0.90 and ratio of performance to deviation more than 1.4.

  12. Predicted indoor radon concentrations from a Monte Carlo simulation of 1 000 000 granite countertop purchases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Allen, J G; Zwack, L M; MacIntosh, D L; Minegishi, T; Stewart, J H; McCarthy, J F

    2013-01-01

    Previous research examining radon exposure from granite countertops relied on using a limited number of exposure scenarios. We expanded upon this analysis and determined the probability that installing a granite countertop in a residential home would lead to a meaningful radon exposure by performing a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a distribution of potential indoor radon concentrations attributable to granite. The Monte Carlo analysis included estimates of the probability that a particular type of granite would be purchased, the radon flux associated with that type, the size of the countertop purchased, the volume of the home where it would be installed and the air exchange rate of that home. One million countertop purchases were simulated and 99.99% of the resulting radon concentrations were lower than the average outdoor radon concentrations in the US (14.8 Bq m −3 ; 0.4 pCi l −1 ). The median predicted indoor concentration from granite countertops was 0.06 Bq m −3 (1.59 × 10 −3 pCi l −1 ), which is over 2000 times lower than the US Environmental Protection Agency’s action level for indoor radon (148 Bq m −3 ; 4 pCi l −1 ). The results show that there is a low probability of a granite countertop causing elevated levels of radon in a home. (paper)

  13. Can we predict uranium bioavailability based on soil parameters? Part 1: effect of soil parameters on soil solution uranium concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenhove, H; Van Hees, M; Wouters, K; Wannijn, J

    2007-01-01

    Present study aims to quantify the influence of soil parameters on soil solution uranium concentration for (238)U spiked soils. Eighteen soils collected under pasture were selected such that they covered a wide range for those parameters hypothesised as being potentially important in determining U sorption. Maximum soil solution uranium concentrations were observed at alkaline pH, high inorganic carbon content and low cation exchange capacity, organic matter content, clay content, amorphous Fe and phosphate levels. Except for the significant correlation between the solid-liquid distribution coefficients (K(d), L kg(-1)) and the organic matter content (R(2)=0.70) and amorphous Fe content (R(2)=0.63), there was no single soil parameter significantly explaining the soil solution uranium concentration (which varied 100-fold). Above pH=6, log(K(d)) was linearly related with pH [log(K(d))=-1.18 pH+10.8, R(2)=0.65]. Multiple linear regression analysis did result in improved predictions of the soil solution uranium concentration but the model was complex.

  14. Decreased health-related quality of life in disease-free survivors of differentiated thyroid cancer in Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kim Kwang-Won

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Concern regarding the health-related quality of life (HRQOL of long-term survivors of thyroid cancer has risen due to the rapid increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer, which generally has an excellent prognosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the status of HRQOL in disease-free survivors of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC and to evaluate the important determinants of HRQOL. Methods This was a cross-sectional study in which we interviewed consecutive disease-free survivors of DTC. Three different validated questionnaires ("EORTC QLQ-C30" for various functional domains, the "brief fatigue inventory (BFI" and the "hospital anxiety and depression scale" (HADS were used. Data from a large, population based survey of 1,000 people were used as a control. Results The response rate for the questionnaires was 78.9% (316/401. Disease-free survivors of DTC showed a decreased HRQOL in all five functional domains (physical, role, cognitive, emotional, and social on the EORTC QLQ-C30 compared with controls (P P Conclusions Although disease-free survivors of DTC are expected to have disease-specific survival comparable to the general population, they experience a significantly decreased HRQOL. Anxiety, depression, and fatigue were the major determinants of the decreased HRQOL. Supportive psychological care should be integrated into the management of long-term survivors of DTC.

  15. Early involvement in friendships predicts later plasma concentrations of oxytocin and vasopressin in juvenile rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamara Aliza Rachel Weinstein

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available The neuropeptides oxytocin (OT and vasopressin (AVP are involved in social bonding in attachment relationships, but their role in friendship is poorly understood. We investigated whether rhesus macaques’ (Macaca mulatta friendships at age one predicted plasma OT and AVP at two later time points. Subjects were 54 rhesus macaques at the California National Primate Research Center. Blood was drawn during a brief capture-and-release in the home cage, and plasma assayed for OT and AVP using an enzyme immunoassay. Separate linear mixed models for each sex tested the effects of dominance rank, age, sampling time point, housing condition, parturition status, two blood draw timing measures, and five friendship types: proximity friendships, play friendships, reciprocal friendships (a preference for a peer that also preferred the subject, multiplex friendships (friendships displayed in more than one behavioral domain, and total number of friendships. Females’ number of reciprocal and play friendships at age one significantly predicted later OT; additionally, these two friendship types interacted with rank, such that high-ranking females with the fewest friendships had the highest OT concentrations. Friendship did not predict later OT levels in males, however proximity, play, reciprocal, and total number of friendships predicted males’ plasma AVP. Play and total number of friendships also tended to predict AVP in females. Our results show that peripheral measures of neuroendocrine functioning in juvenile rhesus monkeys are influenced by early involvement in friendships. Friendships have an especially strong impact on an individual’s psychosocial development, and our data suggest OT and AVP as potential underlying mechanisms. Moreover, sex differences in the functioning of the OT and AVP systems, and their relation to friendship, may have important clinical implications for the use of OT as a therapeutic, as well as informing the social context in

  16. Concentration addition and independent action model: Which is better in predicting the toxicity for metal mixtures on zebrafish larvae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Yongfei; Feng, Jianfeng; Kang, Lili; Xu, Xin; Zhu, Lin

    2018-01-01

    The joint toxicity of chemical mixtures has emerged as a popular topic, particularly on the additive and potential synergistic actions of environmental mixtures. We investigated the 24h toxicity of Cu-Zn, Cu-Cd, and Cu-Pb and 96h toxicity of Cd-Pb binary mixtures on the survival of zebrafish larvae. Joint toxicity was predicted and compared using the concentration addition (CA) and independent action (IA) models with different assumptions in the toxic action mode in toxicodynamic processes through single and binary metal mixture tests. Results showed that the CA and IA models presented varying predictive abilities for different metal combinations. For the Cu-Cd and Cd-Pb mixtures, the CA model simulated the observed survival rates better than the IA model. By contrast, the IA model simulated the observed survival rates better than the CA model for the Cu-Zn and Cu-Pb mixtures. These findings revealed that the toxic action mode may depend on the combinations and concentrations of tested metal mixtures. Statistical analysis of the antagonistic or synergistic interactions indicated that synergistic interactions were observed for the Cu-Cd and Cu-Pb mixtures, non-interactions were observed for the Cd-Pb mixtures, and slight antagonistic interactions for the Cu-Zn mixtures. These results illustrated that the CA and IA models are consistent in specifying the interaction patterns of binary metal mixtures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Prediction of COD and NH4+-N Concentrations in Leachate from Lab-scale Landfill Bioreactors Using Artificial Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Javad Zoqi

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present an Artificial Neural Network (ANN model for predicting COD and NH4+-N concentrations in landfill leachate from lab-scale landfill bioreactors. For this purpose, two different lab-scale systems were modeled. for neural network’s data obtained. In the first system, the leachate from a fresh-waste reactor was drained to a recirculation tank and recycled every two days. In the second, the leachate from a fresh waste landfill reactor was fed through a well-decomposed refuse landfill reactor, while the leachate from a well-decomposed refuse landfill reactor was simultaneously recycled to a fresh waste landfill reactor. The results indicate that leachate NH4+-N and COD concentrations accumulated to a high level in the first system, while. NH4+-N and COD removals were successfully carried out in the second. Also, average removal efficiencies in the second system reached 85% and 34% for COD and NH4+-N, respectively. Finally, the ANN’s results exhibited the success of the model as witnessed by the excellent agreement obtained between measured and predicted values.

  18. Prediction of CP and starch concentrations in ruminal in situ studies and ruminal degradation of cereal grains using NIRS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krieg, J; Koenzen, E; Seifried, N; Steingass, H; Schenkel, H; Rodehutscord, M

    2018-03-01

    Ruminal in situ incubations are widely used to assess the nutritional value of feedstuffs for ruminants. In in situ methods, feed samples are ruminally incubated in indigestible bags over a predefined timespan and the disappearance of nutrients from the bags is recorded. To describe the degradation of specific nutrients, information on the concentration of feed samples and undegraded feed after in situ incubation ('bag residues') is needed. For cereal and pea grains, CP and starch (ST) analyses are of interest. The numerous analyses of residues following ruminal incubation contribute greatly to the substantial investments in labour and money, and faster methods would be beneficial. Therefore, calibrations were developed to estimate CP and ST concentrations in grains and bag residues following in situ incubations by using their near-infrared spectra recorded from 680 to 2500 nm. The samples comprised rye, triticale, barley, wheat, and maize grains (20 genotypes each), and 15 durum wheat and 13 pea grains. In addition, residues after ruminal incubation were included (at least from four samples per species for various incubation times). To establish CP and ST calibrations, 620 and 610 samples (grains and bag residues after incubation, respectively) were chemically analysed for their CP and ST concentration. Calibrations using wavelengths from 1250 to 2450 nm and the first derivative of the spectra produced the best results (R 2 Validation=0.99 for CP and ST; standard error of prediction=0.47 and 2.10% DM for CP and ST, respectively). Hence, CP and ST concentration in cereal grains and peas and their bag residues could be predicted with high precision by NIRS for use in in situ studies. No differences were found between the effective ruminal degradation calculated from NIRS estimations and those calculated from chemical analyses (P>0.70). Calibrations were also calculated to predict ruminal degradation kinetics of cereal grains from the spectra of ground grains

  19. Predicting long-term average concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants using GIS-based information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochadel, Matthias; Heinrich, Joachim; Gehring, Ulrike; Morgenstern, Verena; Kuhlbusch, Thomas; Link, Elke; Wichmann, H.-Erich; Krämer, Ursula

    Global regression models were developed to estimate individual levels of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollutants. The models are based on data of a one-year measurement programme including geographic data on traffic and population densities. This investigation is part of a cohort study on the impact of traffic-related air pollution on respiratory health, conducted at the westerly end of the Ruhr-area in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany. Concentrations of NO 2, fine particle mass (PM 2.5) and filter absorbance of PM 2.5 as a marker for soot were measured at 40 sites spread throughout the study region. Fourteen-day samples were taken between March 2002 and March 2003 for each season and site. Annual average concentrations for the sites were determined after adjustment for temporal variation. Information on traffic counts in major roads, building densities and community population figures were collected in a geographical information system (GIS). This information was used to calculate different potential traffic-based predictors: (a) daily traffic flow and maximum traffic intensity of buffers with radii from 50 to 10 000 m and (b) distances to main roads and highways. NO 2 concentration and PM 2.5 absorbance were strongly correlated with the traffic-based variables. Linear regression prediction models, which involved predictors with radii of 50 to 1000 m, were developed for the Wesel region where most of the cohort members lived. They reached a model fit ( R2) of 0.81 and 0.65 for NO 2 and PM 2.5 absorbance, respectively. Regression models for the whole area required larger spatial scales and reached R2=0.90 and 0.82. Comparison of predicted values with NO 2 measurements at independent public monitoring stations showed a satisfactory association ( r=0.66). PM 2.5 concentration, however, was only slightly correlated and thus poorly predictable by traffic-based variables ( rGIS-based regression models offer a promising approach to assess individual levels of

  20. Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kropat, Georg; Bochud, Francois; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Laedermann, Jean-Pascal; Murith, Christophe; Palacios, Martha; Baechler, Sébastien

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. Method: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). Results: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. Conclusion: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables

  1. Size distribution and concentrations of heavy metals in atmospheric aerosols originating from industrial emissions as predicted by the HYSPLIT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Bing; Stein, Ariel F.; Maldonado, Pabla Guerrero; Sanchez de la Campa, Ana M.; Gonzalez-Castanedo, Yolanda; Castell, Nuria; de la Rosa, Jesus D.

    2013-06-01

    This study presents a description of the emission, transport, dispersion, and deposition of heavy metals contained in atmospheric aerosols emitted from a large industrial complex in southern Spain using the HYSPLIT model coupled with high- (MM5) and low-resolution (GDAS) meteorological simulations. The dispersion model was configured to simulate eight size fractions (17 μm) of metals based on direct measurements taken at the industrial emission stacks. Twelve stacks in four plants were studied and the stacks showed considerable differences for both emission fluxes and size ranges of metals. We model the dispersion of six major metals; Cr, Co, Ni, La, Zn, and Mo, which represent 77% of the total mass of the 43 measured elements. The prediction shows that the modeled industrial emissions produce an enrichment of heavy metals by a factor of 2-5 for local receptor sites when compared to urban and rural background areas in Spain. The HYSPLIT predictions based on the meteorological fields from MM5 show reasonable consistence with the temporal evolution of concentrations of Cr, Co, and Ni observed at three sites downwind of the industrial area. The magnitude of concentrations of metals at two receptors was underestimated for both MM5 (by a factor of 2-3) and GDAS (by a factor of 4-5) meteorological runs. The model prediction shows that heavy metal pollution from industrial emissions in this area is dominated by the ultra-fine (<0.66 μm) and fine (<2.5 μm) size fractions.

  2. High-dose-rate stereotactic body radiation therapy for postradiation therapy locally recurrent prostatic carcinoma: Preliminary prostate-specific antigen response, disease-free survival, and toxicity assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuller, Donald B; Wurzer, James; Shirazi, Reza; Bridge, Stephen S; Law, Jonathan; Mardirossian, George

    2015-01-01

    Patients with locally recurrent adenocarcinoma of the prostate following radiation therapy (RT) present a challenging problem. We prospectively evaluated the use of "high-dose-rate-like" prostate stereotactic body RT (SBRT) salvage for this circumstance, evaluating prostate-specific antigen response, disease-free survival, and toxicity. Between February 2009 and March 2014, 29 patients with biopsy-proven recurrent locally prostate cancer >2 years post-RT were treated. Median prior RT dose was 73.8 Gy and median interval to SBRT salvage was 88 months. Median recurrence Gleason score was 7 (79% was ≥7). Pre-existing RT toxicity >grade 1 was a reason for exclusion. Magnetic resonance imaging-defined prostate volume including any suspected extraprostatic extension, comprising the planning target volume. A total of 34 Gy/5 fractions was given, delivering a heterogeneous, high-dose-rate-like dose-escalation pattern. Toxicities were assessed using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0, criteria. Twenty-nine treated patients had a median 24-month follow-up (range, 3-60 months). A median pre-SBRT salvage baseline prostate-specific antigen level of 3.1 ng/mL decreased to 0.65 ng/mL and 0.16 ng/mL at 1 and 2 years, respectively. Actuarial 2-year biochemical disease-free survival measured 82%, with no local failures. Toxicity >grade 1 was limited to the genitourinary domain, with 18% grade 2 or higher and 7% grade 3 or higher. No gastrointestinal toxicity >grade 1 occurred. Two-year disease-free survival is encouraging, and the prostate-specific antigen response kinetic appears comparable with that seen in de novo patients treated with SBRT, albeit still a preliminary finding. Grade ≥2 genitourinary toxicity was occasionally seen with no obvious predictive factor. Noting that our only brachytherapy case was 1 of the 2 cases with ≥grade 3 genitourinary toxicity, caution is recommended treating these patients. SBRT salvage of post-RT local recurrence

  3. The prosurvival activity of ascites against TRAIL is associated with a shorter disease-free interval in patients with ovarian cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lane Denis

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The production of ascites is a common complication of ovarian cancer. Ascites constitute a unique tumor microenvironment that may affect disease progression. In this context, we recently showed that ovarian cancer ascites may protect tumor cells from TRAIL-induced apoptosis. In this study, we sought to determine whether the prosurvival effect of ascites affects disease-free intervals. Methods Peritoneal fluids were obtained from 54 women undergoing intra-abdominal surgery for suspected ovarian cancer (44 cancers and 10 benign diseases. The ability of peritoneal fluids to protect from TRAIL was assessed in the ovarian cancer cell line CaOV3, and IC50 were determined. The anti-apoptotic activity of 6 ascites against cisplatin, paclitaxel, doxorubicin, etoposide and vinorelbine was also assessed in CaOV3 cells, and the prosurvival activity of two ascites was assessed in 9 primary ovarian cancer cultures. Results Among the 54 peritoneal fluids tested, inhibition of TRAIL cytotoxicity was variable. Fluids originating from ovarian cancer were generally more protective than fluids from non-malignant diseases. Most of the 44 ovarian cancer ascites increased TRAIL IC50 and this inhibitory effect did not correlate strongly with the protein concentration in these ascites or the levels of serum CA125, a tumor antigen which is used in the clinic as a marker of tumor burden. The effect of ascites on cisplatin- and paclitaxel-induced cell death was assessed with 4 ascites having inhibitory effect on TRAIL-induced cell death and 2 that do not. The four ascites with prosurvival activity against TRAIL had some inhibitory on cisplatin and/or paclitaxel. Two ovarian cancer ascites, OVC346 and OVC509, also inhibited TRAIL cytotoxicity in 9 primary cultures of ovarian tumor and induced Akt activation in three of these primary cultures. Among a cohort of 35 patients with ascites, a threshold of TRAIL IC50 with ascites/IC50 without ascites > 2 was

  4. Hair cortisol concentrations and cortisol stress reactivity predict PTSD symptom increase after trauma exposure during military deployment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steudte-Schmiedgen, Susann; Stalder, Tobias; Schönfeld, Sabine; Wittchen, Hans-Ulrich; Trautmann, Sebastian; Alexander, Nina; Miller, Robert; Kirschbaum, Clemens

    2015-09-01

    Previous evidence on endocrine risk markers for posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) has been inconclusive. Here, we report results of the first prospective study to investigate whether long-term hair cortisol levels and experimentally-induced cortisol stress reactivity are predictive of the development of PTSD symptomatology in response to trauma during military deployment. Male soldiers were examined before deployment to Afghanistan and at a 12-month post-deployment follow-up using dimensional measures for psychopathological symptoms. The predictive value of baseline (i) hair cortisol concentrations (HCC, N=90) and (ii) salivary cortisol stress reactivity (measured by the Trier Social Stress Test, N=80) for the development of PTSD symptomatology after being exposed to new-onset traumatic events was analyzed. Baseline cortisol activity significantly predicted PTSD symptom change from baseline to follow-up upon trauma exposure. Specifically, our results consistently revealed that lower HCC and lower cortisol stress reactivity were predictive of a greater increase in PTSD symptomatology in soldiers who had experienced new-onset traumatic events (explaining 5% and 10.3% of variance, respectively). Longitudinal analyses revealed an increase in HCC from baseline to follow-up and a trend for a negative relationship between HCC changes and the number of new-onset traumatic events. Additional pre-deployment analyses revealed that trauma history was reflected in lower HCC (at trend level) and that HCC were negatively related to stressful load. Our data indicate that attenuated cortisol secretion is a risk marker for subsequent development of PTSD symptomatology upon trauma exposure. Future studies are needed to confirm our findings in other samples. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Preoperative Tracheostomy Is Associated with Poor Disease-Free Survival in Recurrent Laryngeal Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkeland, Andrew C; Rosko, Andrew J; Beesley, Lauren; Bellile, Emily; Chinn, Steven B; Shuman, Andrew G; Prince, Mark E; Wolf, Gregory T; Bradford, Carol R; Brenner, J Chad; Spector, Matthew E

    2017-09-01

    Objectives It is unknown if preoperative tracheostomy for persistent/recurrent laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) plays a role in unrecognized local disease spread and disease recurrence after salvage laryngectomy. The goals of this study were to determine the effect of preoperative tracheostomy on disease-free survival (DFS) in patients with recurrent/persistent LSCC undergoing salvage laryngectomy. Study Design Retrospective case series derived from prospectively maintained database. Setting Tertiary care academic center. Subjects Patients with recurrent/persistent LSCC after radiation/chemoradiation (RT/CRT) who underwent salvage laryngectomy at the University of Michigan from 1997 to 2015. Methods Demographic, clinical, pathologic, and survival data were collected. Kaplan-Meier survival estimates were performed. Results DFS was worse for patients with tracheostomy prior to laryngectomy than patients without a tracheostomy (5 year: 39% vs 67%; P tracheostomy prior to RT/CRT compared to patients with tracheostomy after RT/CRT or patients without a tracheostomy had worse DFS (5-year: 25%, 49%, and 67%, respectively; P tracheostomy was associated with worse DFS. In multivariable analysis, presence of a preoperative tracheostomy had a worse DFS (hazard ratio, 1.63; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-2.67; P = .048). Conclusion Preoperative tracheostomy is associated with disease recurrence in patients with persistent/recurrent LSCC undergoing salvage laryngectomy, particularly in patients who had tracheostomy prior to completion of initial RT/CRT. Notably, preoperative tracheostomy as a causal factor vs marker for disease recurrence is difficult to ascertain. Nevertheless, clinicians should be aware of the increased risk of locoregional recurrence in patients with preoperative tracheostomy when counseling on surgical salvage and when considering the role of additional therapy.

  6. Plasma oxytocin concentrations and OXTR polymorphisms predict social impairments in children with and without autism spectrum disorder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, Karen J; Garner, Joseph P; Libove, Robin A; Hyde, Shellie A; Hornbeak, Kirsten B; Carson, Dean S; Liao, Chun-Ping; Phillips, Jennifer M; Hallmayer, Joachim F; Hardan, Antonio Y

    2014-08-19

    The neuropeptide oxytocin (OXT) and its receptor (OXTR) regulate social functioning in animals and humans. Initial clinical research suggests that dysregulated plasma OXT concentrations and/or OXTR SNPs may be biomarkers of social impairments in autism spectrum disorder (ASD). We do not know, however, whether OXT dysregulation is unique to ASD or whether OXT biology influences social functioning more generally, thus contributing to, but not causing, ASD phenotypes. To distinguish between these possibilities, we tested in a child ASD cohort, which included unaffected siblings and unrelated neurotypical controls (ages 3-12 y; n = 193), whether plasma OXT concentrations and OXTR SNPs (i) interact to produce ASD phenotypes, (ii) exert differential phenotypic effects in ASD vs. non-ASD children, or (iii) have similar phenotypic effects independent of disease status. In the largest cohort tested to date, we found no evidence to support the OXT deficit hypothesis of ASD. Rather, OXT concentrations strongly and positively predicted theory of mind and social communication performance in all groups. Furthermore, OXT concentrations showed significant heritability between ASD-discordant siblings (h(2) = 85.5%); a heritability estimate on par with that of height in humans. Finally, carriers of the "G" allele of rs53576 showed impaired affect recognition performance and carriers of the "A" allele of rs2254298 exhibited greater global social impairments in all groups. These findings indicate that OXT biology is not uniquely associated with ASD, but instead exerts independent, additive, and highly heritable influences on individual differences in human social functioning, including the severe social impairments which characterize ASD.

  7. Thermodynamic data for predicting concentrations of Pu(III), Am(III), and Cm(III) in geologic environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rai, Dhanpat; Rao, Linfeng; Weger, H.T.; Felmy, A.R. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, WA (United States); Choppin, G.R. [Florida State University, Florida (United States); Yui, Mikazu [Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Inst., Tokai Works, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1999-01-01

    This report provides thermodynamic data for predicting concentrations of Pu(III), Am(III), and Cm(III) in geologic environments, and contributes to an integration of the JNC chemical thermodynamic database, JNC-TDB (previously PNC-TDB), for the performance analysis of geological isolation system for high-level radioactive wastes. Thermodynamic data for the formation of complexes or compounds with hydroxide, chloride, fluoride, carbonate, nitrate, sulfate and phosphate are discussed in this report. Where data for specific actinide(III) species are lacking, the data were selected based on chemical analogy to other trivalent actinides. In this study, the Pitzer ion-interaction model is mainly used to extrapolate thermodynamic constants to zero ionic strength at 25degC. (author)

  8. 137Cs Inter-Plant Concentration Ratios Provide a Predictive Tool for Coral Atolls with Distinct Benefits Over Transfer Factors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robison, W L; Hamilton, T F; Bogen, K; Corado, C L; Kehl, S R

    2007-07-17

    Inter-plant concentration ratios (IPCR), [Bq g{sup -1} {sup 137}Cs in coral atoll tree food-crops/Bq g{sup -1} {sup 137}Cs in leaves of native plant species whose roots share a common soil volume], can replace transfer factors (TF) to predict {sup 137}Cs concentration in tree food-crops in a contaminated area with an aged source term. The IPCR strategy has significant benefits relative to TF strategy for such purposes in the atoll ecosystem. IPCR strategy applied to specific assessments takes advantage of the fact tree roots naturally integrate 137Cs over large volumes of soil. Root absorption of {sup 137}Cs replaces large-scale, expensive soil sampling schemes to reduce variability in {sup 137}Cs concentration due to inhomogeneous radionuclide distribution. IPCR [drinking-coconut meat (DCM)/Scaevola (SCA) and Tournefortia (TOU) leaves (native trees growing on all atoll islands)] are log normally distributed (LND) with geometric standard deviation (GSD) = 1.85. TF for DCM from Enewetak, Eneu, Rongelap and Bikini Atolls are LND with GSD's of 3.5, 3.0, 2.7, and 2.1, respectively. TF GSD for Rongelap copra coconut meat is 2.5. IPCR of Pandanus fruit to SCA and TOU leaves are LND with GSD = 1.7 while TF GSD is 2.1. Because IPCR variability is much lower than TF variability, relative sampling error of an IPCR field sample mean is up 6- to 10-fold lower than that of a TF sample mean if sample sizes are small (10 to 20). Other IPCR advantages are that plant leaf samples are collected and processed in far less time with much less effort and cost than soil samples.

  9. 137Cs inter-plant concentration ratios provide a predictive tool for coral atolls with distinct benefits over transfer factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Robison, William L.; Hamilton, Terry F.; Bogen, Kenneth T.; Conrado, Cynthia L.; Kehl, Steven R.

    2008-01-01

    Inter-plant concentration ratios (IPCR) [Bq g -1137 Cs in coral atoll tree food crops/Bq g -1137 Cs in leaves of native plant species whose roots share a common soil volume] can replace transfer factors (TF) to predict 137 Cs concentration in tree food crops in a contaminated area with an aged source term. The IPCR strategy has significant benefits relative to TF strategy for such purposes in the atoll ecosystem. IPCR strategy applied to specific assessments takes advantage of the fact that tree roots naturally integrate 137 Cs over large volumes of soil. Root absorption of 137 Cs replaces large-scale, expensive soil sampling schemes to reduce variability in 137 Cs concentration due to inhomogeneous radionuclide distribution. IPCR [drinking-coconut meat (DCM)/Scaevola (SCA) and Tournefortia (TOU) leaves (native trees growing on all atoll islands)] are log-normally distributed (LND) with geometric standard deviation (GSD) = 1.85. TF for DCM from Enewetak, Eneu, Rongelap and Bikini Atolls are LND with GSDs of 3.5, 3.0, 2.7, and 2.1, respectively. TF GSD for Rongelap copra coconut meat is 2.5. IPCR of Pandanus fruit to SCA and TOU leaves are LND with GSD = 1.7 while TF GSD is 2.1. Because IPCR variability is much lower than TF variability, relative sampling error of an IPCR field sample mean is up 6- to 10-fold lower than that of a TF sample mean if sample sizes are small (10-20). Other IPCR advantages are that plant leaf samples are collected and processed in far less time with much less effort and cost than soil samples

  10. Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in a complex environment using kernel estimation: An application to Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kropat, Georg, E-mail: georg.kropat@chuv.ch [Institute of Radiation Physics, Lausanne University Hospital, Rue du Grand-Pré 1, 1007 Lausanne (Switzerland); Bochud, Francois [Institute of Radiation Physics, Lausanne University Hospital, Rue du Grand-Pré 1, 1007 Lausanne (Switzerland); Jaboyedoff, Michel [Faculty of Geosciences and Environment, University of Lausanne, GEOPOLIS — 3793, 1015 Lausanne (Switzerland); Laedermann, Jean-Pascal [Institute of Radiation Physics, Lausanne University Hospital, Rue du Grand-Pré 1, 1007 Lausanne (Switzerland); Murith, Christophe; Palacios, Martha [Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Schwarzenburgstrasse 165, 3003 Berne (Switzerland); Baechler, Sébastien [Institute of Radiation Physics, Lausanne University Hospital, Rue du Grand-Pré 1, 1007 Lausanne (Switzerland); Swiss Federal Office of Public Health, Schwarzenburgstrasse 165, 3003 Berne (Switzerland)

    2015-02-01

    Purpose: The aim of this study was to develop models based on kernel regression and probability estimation in order to predict and map IRC in Switzerland by taking into account all of the following: architectural factors, spatial relationships between the measurements, as well as geological information. Methods: We looked at about 240 000 IRC measurements carried out in about 150 000 houses. As predictor variables we included: building type, foundation type, year of construction, detector type, geographical coordinates, altitude, temperature and lithology into the kernel estimation models. We developed predictive maps as well as a map of the local probability to exceed 300 Bq/m{sup 3}. Additionally, we developed a map of a confidence index in order to estimate the reliability of the probability map. Results: Our models were able to explain 28% of the variations of IRC data. All variables added information to the model. The model estimation revealed a bandwidth for each variable, making it possible to characterize the influence of each variable on the IRC estimation. Furthermore, we assessed the mapping characteristics of kernel estimation overall as well as by municipality. Overall, our model reproduces spatial IRC patterns which were already obtained earlier. On the municipal level, we could show that our model accounts well for IRC trends within municipal boundaries. Finally, we found that different building characteristics result in different IRC maps. Maps corresponding to detached houses with concrete foundations indicate systematically smaller IRC than maps corresponding to farms with earth foundation. Conclusions: IRC mapping based on kernel estimation is a powerful tool to predict and analyze IRC on a large-scale as well as on a local level. This approach enables to develop tailor-made maps for different architectural elements and measurement conditions and to account at the same time for geological information and spatial relations between IRC measurements

  11. African horse sickness: The potential for an outbreak in disease-free regions and current disease control and elimination techniques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin, M; Page, P; Archer, D; Baylis, M

    2016-09-01

    African horse sickness (AHS) is an arboviral disease of equids transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. The virus is endemic in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and official AHS disease-free status can be obtained from the World Organization for Animal Health on fulfilment of a number of criteria. AHS is associated with case fatality rates of up to 95%, making an outbreak among naïve horses both a welfare and economic disaster. The worldwide distributions of similar vector-borne diseases (particularly bluetongue disease of ruminants) are changing rapidly, probably due to a combination of globalisation and climate change. There is extensive evidence that the requisite conditions for an AHS epizootic currently exist in disease-free countries. In particular, although the stringent regulations enforced upon competition horses make them extremely unlikely to redistribute the virus, there are great concerns over the effects of illegal equid movement. An outbreak of AHS in a disease free region would have catastrophic effects on equine welfare and industry, particularly for international events such as the Olympic Games. While many regions have contingency plans in place to manage an outbreak of AHS, further research is urgently required if the equine industry is to avoid or effectively contain an AHS epizootic in disease-free regions. This review describes the key aspects of AHS as a global issue and discusses the evidence supporting concerns that an epizootic may occur in AHS free countries, the planned government responses, and the roles and responsibilities of equine veterinarians. © 2016 EVJ Ltd.

  12. Prediction of brain target site concentrations on the basis of CSF PK : impact of mechanisms of blood-to-brain transport and within brain distribution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Westerhout, J.

    2014-01-01

    In the development of drugs for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) disorders, the prediction of human CNS drug action is a big challenge. Direct measurement of brain extracellular fluid (brainECF) concentrations is highly restricted in human. Therefore, unbound drug concentrations in

  13. Radioactivity distribution in each part of the fruit trees from radioactive fall out (8). Prediction of peach fruit radiocaesium concentration by thinning fruits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takata, Daisuke; Yasunaga, Eriko; Sato, Mamoru; Abe, Kazuhiro; Kobayashi, Natsuko I.; Tanoi, Keitaro

    2014-01-01

    To explore the predictability of radiocaesium concentration in the mature peach fruits based on the radiocaesium concentration in the young superfluous fruits picked at the fruit thinning period, the change in the radiocaesium concentration as well as potassium ("4"0K) in peach fruits associated with fruit growth was monitored during the second year after the accident of the nuclear power plant in Fukushima. Radiocaesium concentration was found to be highest in the fruit 15 days after the full bloom stage, followed by the gradual decrease before harvest. In addition, variation of radiocaesium and "4"0K concentration with time was shown to be different in leaves and fruits. Finally, the young fruits 60 days after the full bloom date and the ripe fruits were taken from 24 orchards in Fukushima to compare their radiocaesium levels. The predictability of radiocaesium concentration and some considerations for practical use are discussed. (author)

  14. Prediction of brain target site concentrations on the basis of CSF PK : impact of mechanisms of blood-to-brain transport and within brain distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Westerhout, J.

    2014-01-01

    In the development of drugs for the treatment of central nervous system (CNS) disorders, the prediction of human CNS drug action is a big challenge. Direct measurement of brain extracellular fluid (brainECF) concentrations is highly restricted in human. Therefore, unbound drug concentrations in human cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) are used as a surrogate for human brainECF concentrations. Due to qualitative and quantitative differences in processes that govern the pharmacokinetics (PK) of drugs in...

  15. A new general dynamic model predicting radionuclide concentrations and fluxes in coastal areas from readily accessible driving variables

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haakanson, Lars

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents a general, process-based dynamic model for coastal areas for radionuclides (metals, organics and nutrients) from both single pulse fallout and continuous deposition. The model gives radionuclide concentrations in water (total, dissolved and particulate phases and concentrations in sediments and fish) for entire defined coastal areas. The model gives monthly variations. It accounts for inflow from tributaries, direct fallout to the coastal area, internal fluxes (sedimentation, resuspension, diffusion, burial, mixing and biouptake and retention in fish) and fluxes to and from the sea outside the defined coastal area and/or adjacent coastal areas. The fluxes of water and substances between the sea and the coastal area are differentiated into three categories of coast types: (i) areas where the water exchange is regulated by tidal effects; (ii) open coastal areas where the water exchange is regulated by coastal currents; and (iii) semi-enclosed archipelago coasts. The coastal model gives the fluxes to and from the following four abiotic compartments: surface water, deep water, ET areas (i.e., areas where fine sediment erosion and transport processes dominate the bottom dynamic conditions and resuspension appears) and A-areas (i.e., areas of continuous fine sediment accumulation). Criteria to define the boundaries for the given coastal area towards the sea, and to define whether a coastal area is open or closed are given in operational terms. The model is simple to apply since all driving variables may be readily accessed from maps and standard monitoring programs. The driving variables are: latitude, catchment area, mean annual precipitation, fallout and month of fallout and parameters expressing coastal size and form as determined from, e.g., digitized bathymetric maps using a GIS program. Selected results: the predictions of radionuclide concentrations in water and fish largely depend on two factors, the concentration in the sea outside the given

  16. Edible oil structures at low and intermediate concentrations. I. Modeling, computer simulation, and predictions for X ray scattering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pink, David A.; Quinn, Bonnie; Peyronel, Fernanda; Marangoni, Alejandro G.

    2013-12-01

    found that TAGwoods aggregated via DLCA into clusters with fractal dimension D =1.7-1.8. As the simulations were run further, TAGwoods relaxed their positions in order to maximize the attractive interaction making the process look like reaction limited cluster-cluster aggregation with the fractal dimension increasing to D =2.0-2.1. For higher concentrations of CNPs, many TAGwood clusters were formed and, because of their weak interactions, were distributed randomly with D =3.0. We summarize the hierarchy of structures and make predictions for X-ray scattering.

  17. The research of the quantitative prediction of the deposits concentrated regions of the large and super-large sized mineral deposits in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Zhenyu; Wang Shicheng

    2003-01-01

    By the general theory and method of mineral resources prognosis of synthetic information, the locative and quantitative prediction of the large and super-large sized mineral deposits of solid resources of 1 : 5,000,000 are developed in china. The deposit concentrated regions is model unit, the anomaly concentrated regions is prediction unit. The mineral prognosis of synthetic information is developed on GIS platform. The technical route and work method of looking for the large and super-large sized mineral resources and basic principle of compiling attribute table of the variables and the response variables are mentioned. In research of prediction of resources quantity, the locative and quantitative prediction are processed by separately the quantification theory Ⅲ and the corresponding characteristic analysis, two methods are compared. It is very important for resources prediction of western ten provinces in china, it is helpful. (authors)

  18. Estimating and Predicting Metal Concentration Using Online Turbidity Values and Water Quality Models in Two Rivers of the Taihu Basin, Eastern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Hong; Zhuang, Wei; Qian, Yu; Xia, Bisheng; Yang, Yang; Qian, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Turbidity (T) has been widely used to detect the occurrence of pollutants in surface water. Using data collected from January 2013 to June 2014 at eleven sites along two rivers feeding the Taihu Basin, China, the relationship between the concentration of five metals (aluminum (Al), titanium (Ti), nickel (Ni), vanadium (V), lead (Pb)) and turbidity was investigated. Metal concentration was determined using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The linear regression of metal concentration and turbidity provided a good fit, with R(2) = 0.86-0.93 for 72 data sets collected in the industrial river and R(2) = 0.60-0.85 for 60 data sets collected in the cleaner river. All the regression presented good linear relationship, leading to the conclusion that the occurrence of the five metals are directly related to suspended solids, and these metal concentration could be approximated using these regression equations. Thus, the linear regression equations were applied to estimate the metal concentration using online turbidity data from January 1 to June 30 in 2014. In the prediction, the WASP 7.5.2 (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program) model was introduced to interpret the transport and fates of total suspended solids; in addition, metal concentration downstream of the two rivers was predicted. All the relative errors between the estimated and measured metal concentration were within 30%, and those between the predicted and measured values were within 40%. The estimation and prediction process of metals' concentration indicated that exploring the relationship between metals and turbidity values might be one effective technique for efficient estimation and prediction of metal concentration to facilitate better long-term monitoring with high temporal and spatial density.

  19. Lead concentration in meat from lead-killed moose and predicted human exposure using Monte Carlo simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindboe, M; Henrichsen, E N; Høgåsen, H R; Bernhoft, A

    2012-01-01

    Lead-based hunting ammunitions are still common in most countries. On impact such ammunition releases fragments which are widely distributed within the carcass. In Norway, wild game is an important meat source for segments of the population and 95% of hunters use lead-based bullets. In this paper, we have investigated the lead content of ground meat from moose (Alces alces) intended for human consumption in Norway, and have predicted human exposure through this source. Fifty-two samples from different batches of ground meat from moose killed with lead-based bullets were randomly collected. The lead content was measured by atomic absorption spectroscopy. The lead intake from exposure to moose meat over time, depending on the frequency of intake and portion size, was predicted using Monte Carlo simulation. In 81% of the batches, lead levels were above the limit of quantification of 0.03 mg kg(-1), ranging up to 110 mg kg(-1). The mean lead concentration was 5.6 mg kg(-1), i.e. 56 times the European Commission limit for lead in meat. For consumers eating a moderate meat serving (2 g kg(-1) bw), a single serving would give a lead intake of 11 µg kg(-1) bw on average, with maximum of 220 µg kg(-1) bw. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the median (and 97.5th percentile) predicted weekly intake of lead from moose meat was 12 µg kg(-1) bw (27 µg kg(-1) bw) for one serving per week and 25 µg kg(-1) bw (45 µg kg(-1) bw) for two servings per week. The results indicate that the intake of meat from big game shot with lead-based bullets imposes a significant contribution to the total human lead exposure. The provisional tolerable weekly intake set by the World Health Organization (WHO) of 25 µg kg(-1) bw is likely to be exceeded in people eating moose meat on a regular basis. The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has recently concluded that adverse effects may be present at even lower exposure doses. Hence, even occasional consumption of big game meat with lead levels as

  20. Calculation model for predicting concentrations of radioactive corrostion products in the primary coolant of boiling water reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchida, S.; Kikuchi, M.; Asakura, Y.; Yusa, H.; Ohsumi, K.

    1978-01-01

    A calculation model was developed to predict the shutdown dose rate around the recirculation pipes and their components in boiling water reactors (BWRs) by simulating the corrosion product transport in primary cooling water. The model is characterized by separating cobalt species in the water into soluble and insoluble materials and then calculating each concentration using the following considerations: (1) Insoluble cobalt (designated as crud cobalt is deposited directly on the fuel surface, while soluble cobalt (designated as ionic cobalt) is adsorbed on iron oxide deposits on the fuel surface. (2) Cobalt-60 activated on the fuel surface is dissolved in the water in an ionic form, and some is released with iron oxide as crud. The model can follow the reduction of 60 Co in the primary cooling water caused by the control of the iron feed rate into the reactor, which decreases the iron oxide deposits on the fuel surface and then reduces the cobalt adsorption rate. The calculated results agree satisfactorily with the measurements in several BWR plants

  1. Changes in vitamin D supplement use and baseline plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentration predict 5-y change in concentration in postmenopausal women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kluczynski, Melissa A; Wactawski-Wende, Jean; Platek, Mary E; DeNysschen, Carol A; Hovey, Kathleen M; Millen, Amy E

    2012-09-01

    Few studies have prospectively examined predictors of change in plasma concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]. We sought to determine the predictors of 5-y change in 25(OH)D. Plasma 25(OH)D concentrations were assessed at baseline (1997-2000) and 5 y later (2002-2005) in 668 postmenopausal women enrolled in the Osteoporosis and Periodontal Disease Study. Baseline and changes in demographic, dietary, lifestyle, and health-related factors were tested as predictors of change in 25(OH)D concentrations by using multivariable linear regression. The mean 5-y change in 25(OH)D (mean ± SD) was 7.7 ± 0.7 nmol/L (P D concentrations and included baseline 25(OH)D, baseline and change in vitamin D supplementation and physical activity, change in season of blood draw, BMI, whole-body T score, and baseline hormone therapy use. Baseline 25(OH)D and change in vitamin D supplementation explained the most variation (25%) in 25(OH)D. Exploratory analyses showed a borderline significant interaction between tertiles of baseline 25(OH)D and change in vitamin D supplementation over time (P = 0.06). The greatest mean increase in 25(OH)D (22.9 ± 16.8 nmol/L), with adjustment for other statistically significant predictors, occurred in women whose baseline 25(OH)D concentration was ≤51.0 nmol/L (tertile 1) and who increased supplementation use over time. These results confirm the importance of supplementation in increasing 25(OH)D concentrations in aging women, even after other statistically significant predictors are controlled for. These data also suggest that this is especially true among aging women with inadequate 25(OH)D (e.g., <50 nmol/L).

  2. Temperature dependence of the particle/gas partition coefficient: An application to predict indoor gas-phase concentrations of semi-volatile organic compounds

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wei, Wenjuan, E-mail: Wenjuan.Wei@cstb.fr [University of Paris-Est, Scientific and Technical Center for Building (CSTB), Health and Comfort Department, French Indoor Air Quality Observatory (OQAI), 84 Avenue Jean Jaurès, Champs sur Marne, 77447 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 (France); Mandin, Corinne [University of Paris-Est, Scientific and Technical Center for Building (CSTB), Health and Comfort Department, French Indoor Air Quality Observatory (OQAI), 84 Avenue Jean Jaurès, Champs sur Marne, 77447 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2 (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); LERES-Environment and Health Research Laboratory (Irset and EHESP Technologic Platform), Rennes (France); Blanchard, Olivier [EHESP-School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); Mercier, Fabien [EHESP-School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes (France); LERES-Environment and Health Research Laboratory (Irset and EHESP Technologic Platform), Rennes (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); Pelletier, Maud [EHESP-School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); Le Bot, Barbara [EHESP-School of Public Health, Sorbonne Paris Cité, Rennes (France); LERES-Environment and Health Research Laboratory (Irset and EHESP Technologic Platform), Rennes (France); INSERM-U1085, Irset-Research Institute for Environmental and Occupational Health, Rennes (France); and others

    2016-09-01

    The indoor gas-phase concentrations of semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs) can be predicted from their respective concentrations in airborne particles by applying the particle/gas partitioning equilibrium. The temperature used for partitioning is often set to 25 °C. However, indoor temperatures frequently differ from this reference value. This assumption may result in errors in the predicted equilibrium gas-phase SVOC concentrations. To improve the prediction model, the temperature dependence of the particle/gas partition coefficient must be addressed. In this paper, a theoretical relationship between the particle/gas partition coefficient and temperature was developed based on the SVOC absorptive mechanism. The SVOC particle/gas partition coefficients predicted by employing the derived theoretical relationship agree well with the experimental data retrieved from the literature (R > 0.93). The influence of temperature on the equilibrium gas-phase SVOC concentration was quantified by a dimensionless analysis of the derived relationship between the SVOC particle/gas partition coefficient and temperature. The predicted equilibrium gas-phase SVOC concentration decreased by between 31% and 53% when the temperature was lowered by 6 °C, while it increased by up to 750% when the indoor temperature increased from 15 °C to 30 °C. - Highlights: • A theoretical relationship between K{sub p} and temperature was developed. • The relationship was based on the SVOC absorptive mechanism. • The temperature impact was quantified by a dimensionless analysis.

  3. Prediction of ore fluid metal concentrations from solid solution concentrations in ore-stage calcite: Application to the Illinois-Kentucky and Central Tennessee Mississippi Valley-type districts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith-Schmitz, Sarah E.; Appold, Martin S.

    2018-03-01

    Knowledge of the concentrations of Zn and Pb in Mississippi Valley-type (MVT) ore fluids is fundamental to understanding MVT deposit origin. Most previous attempts to quantify the concentrations of Zn and Pb in MVT ore fluids have focused on the analysis of fluid inclusions. However, these attempts have yielded ambiguous results due to possible contamination from secondary fluid inclusions, interferences from Zn and Pb in the host mineral matrix, and uncertainties about whether the measured Zn and Pb signals represent aqueous solute or accidental solid inclusions entrained within the fluid inclusions. The purpose of the present study, therefore, was to try to determine Zn and Pb concentrations in MVT ore fluids using an alternate method that avoids these ambiguities by calculating Zn and Pb concentrations in MVT ore fluids theoretically based on their solid solution concentrations in calcite. This method was applied to the Illinois-Kentucky and Central Tennessee districts, which both contain ore-stage calcite. Experimental partition coefficient (D) values from Rimstidt et al. (1998) and Tsusue and Holland (1966), and theoretical thermodynamic distribution coefficient (KD) values were employed in the present study. Ore fluid concentrations of Zn were likely most accurately predicted by Rimstidt et al. (1998) D values, based on their success in predicting known fluid inclusion concentrations of Mg and Mn, and likely also most accurately predicted ore fluid concentrations of Fe. All four of these elements have a divalent ionic radius smaller than that of Ca2+ and form carbonate minerals with the calcite structure. For both the Illinois-Kentucky and the Central Tennessee district, predicted ore fluid Zn and Fe concentrations were on the order of up to 10's of ppm. Ore fluid concentrations of Pb could only be predicted using Rimstidt et al. (1998) D values. However, these concentrations are unlikely to be reliable, as predicted ore fluid concentrations of Sr and Ba

  4. Relations that affect the probability and prediction of nitrate concentration in private wells in the glacial aquifer system in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warner, Kelly L.; Arnold, Terri L.

    2010-01-01

    Nitrate in private wells in the glacial aquifer system is a concern for an estimated 17 million people using private wells because of the proximity of many private wells to nitrogen sources. Yet, less than 5 percent of private wells sampled in this study contained nitrate in concentrations that exceeded the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) of 10 mg/L (milligrams per liter) as N (nitrogen). However, this small group with nitrate concentrations above the USEPA MCL includes some of the highest nitrate concentrations detected in groundwater from private wells (77 mg/L). Median nitrate concentration measured in groundwater from private wells in the glacial aquifer system (0.11 mg/L as N) is lower than that in water from other unconsolidated aquifers and is not strongly related to surface sources of nitrate. Background concentration of nitrate is less than 1 mg/L as N. Although overall nitrate concentration in private wells was low relative to the MCL, concentrations were highly variable over short distances and at various depths below land surface. Groundwater from wells in the glacial aquifer system at all depths was a mixture of old and young water. Oxidation and reduction potential changes with depth and groundwater age were important influences on nitrate concentrations in private wells. A series of 10 logistic regression models was developed to estimate the probability of nitrate concentration above various thresholds. The threshold concentration (1 to 10 mg/L) affected the number of variables in the model. Fewer explanatory variables are needed to predict nitrate at higher threshold concentrations. The variables that were identified as significant predictors for nitrate concentration above 4 mg/L as N included well characteristics such as open-interval diameter, open-interval length, and depth to top of open interval. Environmental variables in the models were mean percent silt in soil, soil type, and mean depth to

  5. Prediction of Hourly Particulate Matter Concentrations in Chiangmai, Thailand Using MODIS Aerosol Optical Depth and Ground-Based Meteorological Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thongchai Kanabkaew

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Various extreme events recorded over the world have been recognized as scientific-based evidence from possible climate change and variability. The incidence of increasing forest fires and intensive agricultural field burning in Chiangmai and Northern Thailand due to favor conditions may also due to a likely increase of droughts caused by the changing climate. Smog from biomass burning, particularly particulate matter (PM seriously affects health and the environment. Lack and sparse of ground monitors may cause unreliability for warning information. Satellite remote sensing is now a promising technology for air quality prediction at ground level. This study was to investigate the statistical model for predicting PM concentration using satellite data. Aerosol optical depth (AOD data were gathered from MODIS-Terra platform while hourly PM2.5 and PM10 data were collected from the Pollution Control Department. The relationship between AOD and hourly PM over Chiangmai was addressed by Model I-Simple linear regression and Model II-Multiple linear regression with ground-based meteorological data correction. The data used for the statistical analyses were from smog period in 2012 (January-April. Results revealed that AOD and hourly PM in Model I were positively correlated with the coefficient of determination (R2 of 0.22 and 0.21, respectively for PM2.5 and PM10. The relationship between AOD and hourly PM was improved significantly when correcting with relative humidity and temperature data. The model II gave R2 of 0.77 and 0.71, respectively for PM2.5 and PM10. To investigate the validity of model, the regression equation obtained from Model II was then applied with smog data over Chiangmai in March 2007. The model performed reasonably with R2 of 0.74. The model applications would provide supplementary data to other areas with similar conditions and without air quality monitoring stations, and reduce false warning the level of air pollution associated

  6. Applicability of a numerical model to predict vertical distribution of suspended sediment concentration along the depth in Dithmarschen Bight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahbani, M.

    2012-04-01

    A three dimensional numerical model of Delft3d-flow was developed to simulate the current velocity and sediment transport of Piep tidal channel system. This channel system is part of Dithmarschen Bight located in the German North Sea coast. It consists of two main channel namely Norderpiep, and Süderpiep. These two channels conjunct together to form Piep channel near the land on tidal flat. The source of the required field data for this study was those collected under "Prediction of Medium Term Coastal Morphodynamics", known as the PROMORPH project. It was executed during the period May 1999 to June 2002. Those measured data used for calibration and validation of the model were current velocity and suspended sediment concentration (SSC). Current velocities were collected using ADCP devise. Suspended sediment concentration data was prepared by converting the measured values of light transmission. These data was collected using transmissometer. On the basis of some in situ mechanical sampler data an equation was developed to convert light transmission to the SSC. Field data were carried out at several stations along the width of three cross sections from the surface to the bottom, taking into account the limitations. To verify the performance of the calibrated model, its results were compared with the field data. The comparison between the modeled and measured current velocity shows an accuracy of about 0.2 m/s. Factor of two of measured SSC were used to evaluate the performance of the model regarding these values. Some dissimilarity was found between the modeled SSC and those of the field data.To verify the cause of this dissimilarity, two comparing procedures were carried out. First the evolution of the vertical profile of the SSC from the model and those from the field were prepared and compared. In another procedure the snapshot of distribution of SSC at each cross section during different phases of a tidal cycle were prepared using the model results and

  7. A comparative study between the use of artificial neural networks and multiple linear regression for caustic concentration prediction in a stage of alumina production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Leopoldo Rozza

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available With world becoming each day a global village, enterprises continuously seek to optimize their internal processes to hold or improve their competitiveness and make better use of natural resources. In this context, decision support tools are an underlying requirement. Such tools are helpful on predicting operational issues, avoiding cost risings, loss of productivity, work-related accident leaves or environmental disasters. This paper has its focus on the prediction of spent liquor caustic concentration of Bayer process for alumina production. Caustic concentration measuring is essential to keep it at expected levels, otherwise quality issues might arise. The organization requests caustic concentration by chemical analysis laboratory once a day, such information is not enough to issue preventive actions to handle process inefficiencies that will be known only after new measurement on the next day. Thereby, this paper proposes using Multiple Linear Regression and Artificial Neural Networks techniques a mathematical model to predict the spent liquor´s caustic concentration. Hence preventive actions will occur in real time. Such models were built using software tool for numerical computation (MATLAB and a statistical analysis software package (SPSS. The models output (predicted caustic concentration were compared with the real lab data. We found evidence suggesting superior results with use of Artificial Neural Networks over Multiple Linear Regression model. The results demonstrate that replacing laboratorial analysis by the forecasting model to support technical staff on decision making could be feasible.

  8. Where to next with animal health in Latin America? The transition from endemic to disease-free status.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, H; Romero, J R

    2017-04-01

    The Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) is a leading global producer and exporter of animal products. Its livestock production systems are diverse, ranging from large-scale commercial enterprises to family farms. Countries in this region have sought to improve their animal health status through both public and private efforts. Despite significant advances in eradicating such diseases as foot and mouth disease and classical swine fever, other animal health challenges remain; constraining exports, causing negative economic impacts and threatening food security. Obtaining certification of disease-free status is only the first step towards gaining benefits from improvements in animal health. Increasing international trade means that countries must manage the sustainability of their disease-free status in conjunction with trade partners and must comply with additional food safety and animal welfare standards. This paper comments on the challenges created by this new scenario in relation to the epidemiology and economics of animal health, when seeking to improve decisionmaking for animal health management. The authors characterise the current LAC livestock landscape and animal health situation, describing transitions in disease control and the use of economics in improving animal health. They conclude with remarks on the challenges presented by decision-making, economic rationality, sources of benefits, distribution and incentives.

  9. Drug Concentration Thresholds Predictive of Therapy Failure and Death in Children With Tuberculosis: Bread Crumb Trails in Random Forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaminathan, Soumya; Pasipanodya, Jotam G; Ramachandran, Geetha; Hemanth Kumar, A K; Srivastava, Shashikant; Deshpande, Devyani; Nuermberger, Eric; Gumbo, Tawanda

    2016-11-01

     The role of drug concentrations in clinical outcomes in children with tuberculosis is unclear. Target concentrations for dose optimization are unknown.  Plasma drug concentrations measured in Indian children with tuberculosis were modeled using compartmental pharmacokinetic analyses. The children were followed until end of therapy to ascertain therapy failure or death. An ensemble of artificial intelligence algorithms, including random forests, was used to identify predictors of clinical outcome from among 30 clinical, laboratory, and pharmacokinetic variables.  Among the 143 children with known outcomes, there was high between-child variability of isoniazid, rifampin, and pyrazinamide concentrations: 110 (77%) completed therapy, 24 (17%) failed therapy, and 9 (6%) died. The main predictors of therapy failure or death were a pyrazinamide peak concentration <38.10 mg/L and rifampin peak concentration <3.01 mg/L. The relative risk of these poor outcomes below these peak concentration thresholds was 3.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.28-5.83). Isoniazid had concentration-dependent antagonism with rifampin and pyrazinamide, with an adjusted odds ratio for therapy failure of 3.00 (95% CI, 2.08-4.33) in antagonism concentration range. In regard to death alone as an outcome, the same drug concentrations, plus z scores (indicators of malnutrition), and age <3 years, were highly ranked predictors. In children <3 years old, isoniazid 0- to 24-hour area under the concentration-time curve <11.95 mg/L × hour and/or rifampin peak <3.10 mg/L were the best predictors of therapy failure, with relative risk of 3.43 (95% CI, .99-11.82).  We have identified new antibiotic target concentrations, which are potential biomarkers associated with treatment failure and death in children with tuberculosis. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.

  10. Prediction of Adsorption Equilibrium of VOCs onto Hyper-Cross-Linked Polymeric Resin at Environmentally Relevant Temperatures and Concentrations Using Inverse Gas Chromatography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Lijuan; Ma, Jiakai; Shi, Qiuyi; Long, Chao

    2017-01-03

    Hyper-cross-linked polymeric resin (HPR) represents a class of predominantly microporous adsorbents and has good adsorption performance toward VOCs. However, adsorption equilibrium of VOCs onto HPR are limited. In this research, a novel method for predicting adsorption capacities of VOCs on HPR at environmentally relevant temperatures and concentrations using inverse gas chromatography data was proposed. Adsorption equilibrium of six VOCs (n-pentane, n-hexane, dichloromethane, acetone, benzene, 1, 2-dichloroethane) onto HPR in the temperature range of 403-443 K were measured by inverse gas chromatography (IGC). Adsorption capacities at environmentally relevant temperatures (293-328 K) and concentrations (P/P s = 0.1-0.7) were predicted using Dubinin-Radushkevich (DR) equation based on Polany's theory. Taking consideration of the swelling properties of HPR, the volume swelling ratio (r) was introduced and r·V micro was used instead of V micro determined by N 2 adsorption data at 77 K as the parameter q 0 (limiting micropore volume) of the DR equation. The results showed that the adsorption capacities of VOCs at environmentally relevant temperatures and concentrations can be predicted effectively using IGC data, the root-mean-square errors between the predicted and experimental data was below 9.63%. The results are meaningful because they allow accurate prediction of adsorption capacities of adsorbents more quickly and conveniently using IGC data.

  11. Predicting Gran alkalinity and calcium concentrations in river waters over a national scale using a novel modification to the G-BASH model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cresser, Malcolm S.; Ahmed, Nayan; Smart, Richard P.; Arowolo, Toyin; Calver, Louise J.; Chapman, Pippa J.

    2006-01-01

    Monthly stream water calcium and Gran alkalinity concentration data from 11 sub-catchments of the Nether Beck in the English Lake District have been used to appraise the transferability of the Scottish, River Dee-based G-BASH model. Readily available riparian zone geochemistry and flow paths were used initially to predict minimum and mean stream water concentrations at the Nether Beck, based on calibration equations from the River Dee catchment data. Predicted values significantly exceeded observed values. Differences in runoff between the two areas, leading to a dilution effect in the Nether Beck, explained most of the difference between observed and predicted values. Greater acid deposition in the Lake District also reduced stream water Gran alkalinity concentrations in that area. If regional differences in precipitation, evapotranspiration and pollutant deposition are incorporated into the model, it may then be used reliably to predict catchment susceptibility to acidification over a wide regional (national) scale. - A modified G-BASH model predicts calcium and Gran alkalinity in streams at a national scale, taking account of regional deposition and climatic variations

  12. Application of Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Iron Concentration in the Location of Al-Wahda Water Treatment Plant in Baghdad City

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nawar Omran Ali Al-Musawi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Iron is one of the abundant elements on earth that is an essential element for humans and may be a troublesome element in water supplies. In this research an AAN model was developed to predict iron concentrations in the location of Al- Wahda water treatment plant in Baghdad city by water quality assessment of iron concentrations at seven WTPs up stream Tigris River. SPSS software was used to build the ANN model. The input data were iron concentrations in the raw water for the period 2004-2011. The results indicated the best model predicted Iron concentrations at Al-Wahda WTP with a coefficient of determination 0.9142. The model used one hidden layer with two nodes and the testing error was 0.834. The ANN model could be used to predict future iron concentrations as the results from the verification of the ANN model for years 2012 and 2013 indicated good accuracy with a coefficient of determination R2 = 0.8965.

  13. Construction of a predictive model for concentration of nickel and vanadium in vacuum residues of crude oils using artificial neural networks and LIBS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarazona, José L; Guerrero, Jáder; Cabanzo, Rafael; Mejía-Ospino, E

    2012-03-01

    A predictive model to determine the concentration of nickel and vanadium in vacuum residues of Colombian crude oils using laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) and artificial neural networks (ANNs) with nodes distributed in multiple layers (multilayer perceptron) is presented. ANN inputs are intensity values in the vicinity of the emission lines 300.248, 301.200 and 305.081 nm of the Ni(I), and 309.310, 310.229, and 311.070 nm of the V(II). The effects of varying number of nodes and the initial weights and biases in the ANNs were systematically explored. Average relative error of calibration/prediction (REC/REP) and average relative standard deviation (RSD) metrics were used to evaluate the performance of the ANN in the prediction of concentrations of two elements studied here. © 2012 Optical Society of America

  14. Fetal gender prediction based on maternal plasma testosterone and insulin-like peptide 3 concentrations at midgestation and late gestation in cattle.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kibushi, M; Kawate, N; Kaminogo, Y; Hannan, M A; Weerakoon, W W P N; Sakase, M; Fukushima, M; Seyama, T; Inaba, T; Tamada, H

    2016-10-15

    We compared maternal plasma testosterone and insulin-like peptide 3 (INSL3) concentrations between dams carrying a male versus female fetus from early to late gestation and examined the application of maternal hormonal concentrations to fetal gender prediction in dairy and beef cattle. Blood samples were collected from Holstein cows or heifers (N = 31) and Japanese Black beef cows (N = 33) at 1-month intervals at 2 to 8 months of gestation. Fetal gender was confirmed by visual observation of external genitalia of calves just after birth. Plasma testosterone and INSL3 concentrations were determined by enzyme-immunoassay. Fetal genders were judged based on cutoff values of maternal testosterone and INSL3 concentrations (male, if it was ≥ cutoff value; female, if dairy cattle (P cows (P dairy cattle (P cows (P dairy cattle at 5 and 7 months and for beef cows at 5 and 6 months, whereas those values by maternal INSL3 concentrations were 71.0% to 72.4% for the dairy cattle at 6 months and beef cows at 4 and 8 months. When multiple time points of testosterone and INSL3 concentrations at several midgestation and late gestation months were considered for fetal gender prediction, predictive values were 89.3% (5-7 months) and 85.7% to 88.0% (4-6, 8 months) for the dairy and beef breeds, respectively. Maternal testosterone and INSL3 concentrations in dams carrying a male fetus were higher than those carrying a female at midgestation and/or late gestation in Holstein and Japanese Black beef cattle. Nearly, 80% accuracy was obtained for fetal gender prediction by a single time point of maternal plasma testosterone concentrations at midgestation. Nearly 90% accuracy for the prediction was obtained when multiple time points of testosterone and INSL3 concentrations from midgestation to late gestation were considered. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Common Variants in CYP2R1 and GC Genes Predict Vitamin D Concentrations in Healthy Danish Children and Adults

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nissen, Ioanna; Rasmussen, Lone Banke; Ravn-Haren, Gitte

    2014-01-01

    Environmental factors such as diet, intake of vitamin D supplements and exposure to sunlight are known to influence serum vitamin D concentrations. Genetic epidemiology of vitamin D is in its infancy and a better understanding on how genetic variation influences vitamin D concentration is needed....

  16. Air Pollution Modelling to Predict Maximum Ground Level Concentration for Dust from a Palm Oil Mill Stack

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Regina A. A.

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available The study is to model emission from a stack to estimate ground level concentration from a palm oil mill. The case study is a mill located in Kuala Langat, Selangor. Emission source is from boilers stacks. The exercise determines the estimate the ground level concentrations for dust to the surrounding areas through the utilization of modelling software. The surround area is relatively flat, an industrial area surrounded by factories and with palm oil plantations in the outskirts. The model utilized in the study was to gauge the worst-case scenario. Ambient air concentrations were garnered calculate the increase to localized conditions. Keywords: emission, modelling, palm oil mill, particulate, POME

  17. Evaluation of FOCUS surface water pesticide concentration predictions and risk assessment of field-measured pesticide mixtures-a crop-based approach under Mediterranean conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Ana Santos; Daam, Michiel A; Cerejeira, Maria José

    2017-07-01

    FOCUS models are used in the European regulatory risk assessment (RA) to predict individual pesticide concentrations in edge-of-field surface waters. The scenarios used in higher tier FOCUS simulations were mainly based on Central/North European, and work is needed to underpin the validity of simulated exposure profiles for Mediterranean agroecosystems. In addition, the RA of chemicals are traditionally evaluated on the basis of single substances although freshwater life is generally exposed to a multitude of pesticides. In the present study, we monitored 19 pesticides in surface waters of five locations in the Portuguese 'Lezíria do Tejo' agricultural area. FOCUS step 3 simulations were performed for the South European scenarios to estimate predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). We verified that 44% of the PECs underestimated the measured environmental concentrations (MEC) of the pesticides, showing a non-compliance with the field data. Risk was assessed by comparing the environmental quality standards (EQS) and regulatory acceptable concentrations with their respective MECs. Risk of mixtures was demonstrated in 100% of the samples with insecticides accounting for 60% of the total risk identified. The overall link between the RA and the actual situation in the field must be considerably strengthened, and field studies on pesticide exposure and effects should be carried out to assist the improvement of predictive approaches used for regulatory purposes.

  18. Long-term disease-free survival in advanced melanomas treated with nitrosoureas: mechanisms and new perspectives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durando, Xavier; Thivat, Emilie; D'Incan, Michel; Sinsard, Anne; Madelmont, Jean-Claude; Chollet, Philippe

    2005-11-15

    Median survival of metastatic malignant melanoma is 6.0 to 7.5 months, with a 5-year survival of approximately 6.0%. Although long-term complete remissions are rare, few reports describe cases after chemotherapy. Fifty-three patients with metastatic melanoma were treated with Cystemustine, a chloroethyl nitrosourea (CENU) (60 or 90 mg/m2). We describe 5 cases, presenting with complete response with long-term disease-free survival of long-term remission of 14, 12, 9, 7 and 6 years after Cystemustine therapy alone. Long-term survival has already been described in literature, but in all cases they have been obtained after chemotherapy associated with or followed by surgery. But despite these noteworthy and encouraging but also rare results, it appears essential to increase Cystemustine efficiency.

  19. Long-term disease-free survival in advanced melanomas treated with nitrosoureas: mechanisms and new perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sinsard Anne

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Median survival of metastatic malignant melanoma is 6.0 to 7.5 months, with a 5-year survival of ~6.0%. Although long-term complete remissions are rare, few reports describe cases after chemotherapy. Fifty-three patients with metastatic melanoma were treated with Cystemustine, a chloroethyl nitrosourea (CENU (60 or 90 mg/m2. Case presentation We describe 5 cases, presenting with complete response with long-term disease-free survival of long-term remission of 14, 12, 9, 7 and 6 years after Cystemustine therapy alone. Conclusion Long-term survival has already been described in literature, but in all cases they have been obtained after chemotherapy associated with or followed by surgery. But despite these noteworthy and encouraging but also rare results, it appears essential to increase cystemustine efficiency.

  20. Climate and Physiography Predict Mercury Concentrations in Game Fish Species in Quebec Lakes Better than Anthropogenic Disturbances.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucotte, Marc; Paquet, Serge; Moingt, Matthieu

    2016-05-01

    The fluctuations of mercury levels (Hg) in fish consumed by sport fishers in North-Eastern America depend upon a plethora of interrelated biological and abiological factors. To identify the dominant factors ultimately controlling fish Hg concentrations, we compiled mercury levels (Hg) during the 1976-2010 period in 90 large natural lakes in Quebec (Canada) for two major game species: northern pike (Esox lucius) and walleye (Sander vitreus). Our statistical analysis included 28 geographic information system variables and 15 climatic variables, including sulfate deposition. Higher winter temperatures explained 36% of the variability in higher walleye growth rates, in turn accounting for 54% of the variability in lower Hg concentrations. For northern pike, the dominance of a flat topography in the watershed explained 31% of the variability in lower Hg concentrations. Higher mean annual temperatures explained 27% of the variability in higher pike Hg concentrations. Pelagic versus littoral preferred habitats for walleye and pike respectively could explain the contrasted effect of temperature between the two species. Heavy logging could only explain 2% of the increase in walleye Hg concentrations. The influence of mining on fish Hg concentrations appeared to be masked by climatic effects.

  1. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling of human exposure to perfluorooctanoic acid suggests historical non drinking-water exposures are important for predicting current serum concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worley, Rachel Rogers; Yang, Xiaoxia; Fisher, Jeffrey

    2017-09-01

    Manufacturing of perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), a synthetic chemical with a long half-life in humans, peaked between 1970 and 2002, and has since diminished. In the United States, PFOA is detected in the blood of >99% of people tested, but serum concentrations have decreased since 1999. Much is known about exposure to PFOA in drinking water; however, the impact of non-drinking water PFOA exposure on serum PFOA concentrations is not well characterized. The objective of this research is to apply physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling and Monte Carlo analysis to evaluate the impact of historic non-drinking water PFOA exposure on serum PFOA concentrations. In vitro to in vivo extrapolation was utilized to inform descriptions of PFOA transport in the kidney. Monte Carlo simulations were incorporated to evaluate factors that account for the large inter-individual variability of serum PFOA concentrations measured in individuals from North Alabama in 2010 and 2016, and the Mid-Ohio River Valley between 2005 and 2008. Predicted serum PFOA concentrations were within two-fold of experimental data. With incorporation of Monte Carlo simulations, the model successfully tracked the large variability of serum PFOA concentrations measured in populations from the Mid-Ohio River Valley. Simulation of exposure in a population of 45 adults from North Alabama successfully predicted 98% of individual serum PFOA concentrations measured in 2010 and 2016, respectively, when non-drinking water ingestion of PFOA exposure was included. Variation in serum PFOA concentrations may be due to inter-individual variability in the disposition of PFOA and potentially elevated historical non-drinking water exposures. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  2. Application of transmission infrared spectroscopy and partial least squares regression to predict immunoglobulin G concentration in dairy and beef cow colostrum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elsohaby, Ibrahim; Windeyer, M Claire; Haines, Deborah M; Homerosky, Elizabeth R; Pearson, Jennifer M; McClure, J Trenton; Keefe, Greg P

    2018-03-06

    The objective of this study was to explore the potential of transmission infrared (TIR) spectroscopy in combination with partial least squares regression (PLSR) for quantification of dairy and beef cow colostral immunoglobulin G (IgG) concentration and assessment of colostrum quality. A total of 430 colostrum samples were collected from dairy (n = 235) and beef (n = 195) cows and tested by a radial immunodiffusion (RID) assay and TIR spectroscopy. Colostral IgG concentrations obtained by the RID assay were linked to the preprocessed spectra and divided into combined and prediction data sets. Three PLSR calibration models were built: one for the dairy cow colostrum only, the second for beef cow colostrum only, and the third for the merged dairy and beef cow colostrum. The predictive performance of each model was evaluated separately using the independent prediction data set. The Pearson correlation coefficients between IgG concentrations as determined by the TIR-based assay and the RID assay were 0.84 for dairy cow colostrum, 0.88 for beef cow colostrum, and 0.92 for the merged set of dairy and beef cow colostrum. The average of the differences between colostral IgG concentrations obtained by the RID- and TIR-based assays were -3.5, 2.7, and 1.4 g/L for dairy, beef, and merged colostrum samples, respectively. Further, the average relative error of the colostral IgG predicted by the TIR spectroscopy from the RID assay was 5% for dairy cow, 1.2% for beef cow, and 0.8% for the merged data set. The average intra-assay CV% of the IgG concentration predicted by the TIR-based method were 3.2%, 2.5%, and 6.9% for dairy cow, beef cow, and merged data set, respectively.The utility of TIR method for assessment of colostrum quality was evaluated using the entire data set and showed that TIR spectroscopy accurately identified the quality status of 91% of dairy cow colostrum, 95% of beef cow colostrum, and 89% and 93% of the merged dairy and beef cow colostrum samples

  3. Predictive values of urine paraquat concentration, dose of poison, arterial blood lactate and APACHE II score in the prognosis of patients with acute paraquat poisoning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xiao-Wei; Ma, Tao; Li, Lu-Lu; Qu, Bo; Liu, Zhi

    2017-07-01

    The present study investigated the predictive values of urine paraquat (PQ) concentration, dose of poison, arterial blood lactate and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score in the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. A total of 194 patients with acute PQ poisoning, hospitalized between April 2012 and January 2014 at the First Affiliated Hospital of P.R. China Medical University (Shenyang, China), were selected and divided into survival and mortality groups. Logistic regression analysis, receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and Kaplan-Meier curve were applied to evaluate the values of urine paraquat (PQ) concentration, dose of poison, arterial blood lactate and (APACHE) II score for predicting the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. Initial urine PQ concentration (C0), dose of poison, arterial blood lactate and APACHE II score of patients in the mortality group were significantly higher compared with the survival group (all Ppoison and arterial blood lactate correlated with mortality risk of acute PQ poisoning (all Ppoison, arterial blood lactate and APACHE II score in predicting the mortality of patients within 28 days were 0.921, 0.887, 0.808 and 0.648, respectively. The AUC of C0 for predicting early and delayed mortality were 0.890 and 0.764, respectively. The AUC values of urine paraquat concentration the day after poisoning (Csec) and the rebound rate of urine paraquat concentration in predicting the mortality of patients within 28 days were 0.919 and 0.805, respectively. The 28-day survival rate of patients with C0 ≤32.2 µg/ml (42/71; 59.2%) was significantly higher when compared with patients with C0 >32.2 µg/ml (38/123; 30.9%). These results suggest that the initial urine PQ concentration may be the optimal index for predicting the prognosis of patients with acute PQ poisoning. Additionally, dose of poison, arterial blood lactate, Csec and rebound rate also have referential significance.

  4. TK Modeler version 1.0, a Microsoft® Excel®-based modeling software for the prediction of diurnal blood/plasma concentration for toxicokinetic use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCoy, Alene T; Bartels, Michael J; Rick, David L; Saghir, Shakil A

    2012-07-01

    TK Modeler 1.0 is a Microsoft® Excel®-based pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling program created to aid in the design of toxicokinetic (TK) studies. TK Modeler 1.0 predicts the diurnal blood/plasma concentrations of a test material after single, multiple bolus or dietary dosing using known PK information. Fluctuations in blood/plasma concentrations based on test material kinetics are calculated using one- or two-compartment PK model equations and the principle of superposition. This information can be utilized for the determination of appropriate dosing regimens based on reaching a specific desired C(max), maintaining steady-state blood/plasma concentrations, or other exposure target. This program can also aid in the selection of sampling times for accurate calculation of AUC(24h) (diurnal area under the blood concentration time curve) using sparse-sampling methodologies (one, two or three samples). This paper describes the construction, use and validation of TK Modeler. TK Modeler accurately predicted blood/plasma concentrations of test materials and provided optimal sampling times for the calculation of AUC(24h) with improved accuracy using sparse-sampling methods. TK Modeler is therefore a validated, unique and simple modeling program that can aid in the design of toxicokinetic studies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Dynamics and Predictive Potential of Antibodies against Insect-Derived Recombinant Leishmania infantum Proteins during Chemotherapy of Naturally Infected Dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todolí, Felicitat; Galindo, Inmaculada; Gómez-Sebastián, Silvia; Pérez-Filgueira, Mariano; Escribano, José M.; Alberola, Jordi; Rodríguez-Cortés, Alhelí

    2010-01-01

    A predictive marker for the success treatment of canine leishmaniasis is required for the application of a more rational therapy protocol, which must improve the probability of cure and reduce Leishmania resistance to drugs. We investigated the dynamics and predictive value of antibodies against insect-derived recombinant L. infantum proteins rKMPII and rTRYP by using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay with retrospective serum samples from 36 dogs during treatment of canine leishmaniasis. In the entire group of dogs, concentrations of antibodies against rKMPII and rTRYP significantly decreased earlier than concentrations of antibodies against crude total Leishmania antigen (one versus six months), which suggested that the dynamics of antibodies against recombinant proteins may be useful for assessing clinical improvement after treatment. Interestingly, decreases in antibody concentrations against rKMPII occurred earlier in disease-free dogs than in dogs that remain clinically ill one year after beginning of treatment, which suggested that these antibodies may be useful for predicting disease-free survival one year after the beginning of therapy against canine leishmaniasis. PMID:20439957

  6. Plasma lopinavir concentrations predict virological failure in a cohort of South African children initiating a protease-inhibitor-based regimen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moholisa, Retsilisitsoe R; Schomaker, Michael; Kuhn, Louise; Meredith, Sandra; Wiesner, Lubbe; Coovadia, Ashraf; Strehlau, Renate; Martens, Leigh; Abrams, Elaine J; Maartens, Gary; Mcllleron, Helen

    2014-01-01

    Background Poor adherence to antiretroviral therapy contributes to pharmacokinetic variability and is the major determinant of virological failure. However, measuring treatment adherence is difficult, especially in children. We investigated the relationship between plasma lopinavir concentrations, pretreatment characteristics and viral load >400 copies/ml. Methods A total of 237 HIV-infected children aged 4–42 months on lopinavir/ritonavir oral solution were studied prospectively and followed for up to 52 weeks. Viral load and lopinavir concentration were measured at clinic visits 12, 24, 36 and 52 weeks after starting treatment. Cox multiple failure events models were used to estimate the crude and adjusted effect of lopinavir concentrations on the hazard of viral load >400 copies/ml. Results The median (IQR) pretreatment CD4+ T-lymphocyte percentage was 18.80% (12.70–25.35) and 53% of children had a pretreatment viral load >750,000 copies/ml. The median (IQR) weight-for-age and height-for-age z-scores were −2.17 (−3.35–−2.84) and −3.34 (−4.57–−3.41), respectively. Median (IQR) lopinavir concentrations were 8.00 mg/l (4.11–12.42) at median (IQR) 3.50 h (2.67–4.25) after the dose. The hazard of viral load >400 copies/ml was increased with lopinavir concentrations <1 mg/l versus ≥1 mg/l (adjusted hazard ratio 2.3 [95% CI 1.63, 3.26]) and lower height-for-age z-scores. Conclusions Low lopinavir concentrations (<1 mg/l) are associated with viraemia in children. This measure could be used as a proxy for adherence and to determine which children are more likely to fail. PMID:24518130

  7. Predictive models for Escherichia coli concentrations at inland lake beaches and relationship of model variables to pathogen detection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Methods are needed improve the timeliness and accuracy of recreational water‐quality assessments. Traditional culture methods require 18–24 h to obtain results and may not reflect current conditions. Predictive models, based on environmental and water quality variables, have been...

  8. Relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing based on multi-source data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ni, X. Y.; Huang, H.; Du, W. P.

    2017-02-01

    The PM2.5 problem is proving to be a major public crisis and is of great public-concern requiring an urgent response. Information about, and prediction of PM2.5 from the perspective of atmospheric dynamic theory is still limited due to the complexity of the formation and development of PM2.5. In this paper, we attempted to realize the relevance analysis and short-term prediction of PM2.5 concentrations in Beijing, China, using multi-source data mining. A correlation analysis model of PM2.5 to physical data (meteorological data, including regional average rainfall, daily mean temperature, average relative humidity, average wind speed, maximum wind speed, and other pollutant concentration data, including CO, NO2, SO2, PM10) and social media data (microblog data) was proposed, based on the Multivariate Statistical Analysis method. The study found that during these factors, the value of average wind speed, the concentrations of CO, NO2, PM10, and the daily number of microblog entries with key words 'Beijing; Air pollution' show high mathematical correlation with PM2.5 concentrations. The correlation analysis was further studied based on a big data's machine learning model- Back Propagation Neural Network (hereinafter referred to as BPNN) model. It was found that the BPNN method performs better in correlation mining. Finally, an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (hereinafter referred to as ARIMA) Time Series model was applied in this paper to explore the prediction of PM2.5 in the short-term time series. The predicted results were in good agreement with the observed data. This study is useful for helping realize real-time monitoring, analysis and pre-warning of PM2.5 and it also helps to broaden the application of big data and the multi-source data mining methods.

  9. Towards a better prediction of peak concentration, volume of distribution and half-life after oral drug administration in man, using allometry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinha, Vikash K; Vaarties, Karin; De Buck, Stefan S; Fenu, Luca A; Nijsen, Marjoleen; Gilissen, Ron A H J; Sanderson, Wendy; Van Uytsel, Kelly; Hoeben, Eva; Van Peer, Achiel; Mackie, Claire E; Smit, Johan W

    2011-05-01

    It is imperative that new drugs demonstrate adequate pharmacokinetic properties, allowing an optimal safety margin and convenient dosing regimens in clinical practice, which then lead to better patient compliance. Such pharmacokinetic properties include suitable peak (maximum) plasma drug concentration (C(max)), area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and a suitable half-life (t(½)). The C(max) and t(½) following oral drug administration are functions of the oral clearance (CL/F) and apparent volume of distribution during the terminal phase by the oral route (V(z)/F), each of which may be predicted and combined to estimate C(max) and t(½). Allometric scaling is a widely used methodology in the pharmaceutical industry to predict human pharmacokinetic parameters such as clearance and volume of distribution. In our previous published work, we have evaluated the use of allometry for prediction of CL/F and AUC. In this paper we describe the evaluation of different allometric scaling approaches for the prediction of C(max), V(z)/F and t(½) after oral drug administration in man. Twenty-nine compounds developed at Janssen Research and Development (a division of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV), covering a wide range of physicochemical and pharmacokinetic properties, were selected. The C(max) following oral dosing of a compound was predicted using (i) simple allometry alone; (ii) simple allometry along with correction factors such as plasma protein binding (PPB), maximum life-span potential or brain weight (reverse rule of exponents, unbound C(max) approach); and (iii) an indirect approach using allometrically predicted CL/F and V(z)/F and absorption rate constant (k(a)). The k(a) was estimated from (i) in vivo pharmacokinetic experiments in preclinical species; and (ii) predicted effective permeability in man (P(eff)), using a Caco-2 permeability assay. The V(z)/F was predicted using allometric scaling with or without PPB correction. The t(½) was estimated from

  10. Sleep Duration and Sleep Disturbances as Predictors of Healthy and Chronic Disease-Free Life Expectancy between Ages 50 and 75

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenholm, Sari; Head, Jenny; Kivimäki, Mika

    2018-01-01

    Background: The aim of this study was to examine the associations of sleep duration and sleep disturbances with healthy and chronic disease-free life expectancy (LE) between ages 50 and 75. Methods: Data were drawn from repeated waves of three occupational cohort studies in England, Finland...... and Sweden (n=55,494) and the follow-up ranged from 6 to 18 years. Self-reported sleep duration was categorized into healthy LE based on years in good self-rated health...... and chronic disease-free LE based on years without chronic diseases. Multistate life table models were used to estimate healthy and chronic disease-free LE from age 50 to 75 years for each category of sleep measures in each cohort. Fixed-effects meta-analysis was used to pool the cohort-specific results...

  11. Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of 34 metals or metalloids by use of quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P.

    2014-01-01

    Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships–species sensitivity distributions (QICAR–SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR–SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. - Highlights: • We investigate relationships between σp and log-NOEC in eight species. • The QICAR–SSD model, FACR, and CMC/CCC were used to predict CCCs. • They are as a supplement to screening for toxicities, criteria and standards. - CCCs for 34 metals/metalloids were predicted by use of QICAR–SSD model and FACR method

  12. Improving Infant Exposure and Health Risk Estimates: Using Serum Data to Predict Polybrominated Diphenyl Ether Concentrations in Breast Milk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Women in the United States have breast milk concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) that are among the highest in the world, leading to concerns over the potential health implications to breastfeeding infants during critical stages of growth and development. Deve...

  13. Does low protein concentration of tissue-type plasminogen activator predict a low risk of spontaneous deep vein thrombosis?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gram, J; Sidelmann, Johannes Jakobsen; Jespersen, J

    1995-01-01

    activity (p Reasonable separation could be obtained for t-PA with a cut-off point of 5...... interval 70%-94%). We observed a significantly negative association between concentration of t-PA and fibrinolytic activity (rs = -0.47; p WORDS)...

  14. Mecury in Fin Clips and Scales as Assessment Methods for Predicting Muscle Tissue Mercury Concentrations in Red Drum and Snook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Non-lethal techniques for assessing total mercury concentrations in fish are desired because they minimize impacts on fish populations and allow trends in Hg accumulation to be assessed through repeated sampling of individual fish. This study developed relationships of Hg concent...

  15. Predicting dissolved lignin phenol concentrations in the coastal ocean from chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM absorption coefficients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cédric G. Fichot

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Dissolved lignin is a well-established biomarker of terrigenous dissolved organic matter (DOM in the ocean, and a chromophoric component of DOM. Although evidence suggests there is a strong linkage between lignin concentrations and chromophoric DOM (CDOM absorption coefficients in coastal waters, the characteristics of this linkage and the existence of a relationship that is applicable across coastal oceans remain unclear. Here, 421 paired measurements of dissolved lignin concentrations (sum of 9 lignin phenols and CDOM absorption coefficients (ag(λ were used to examine their relationship along the river-ocean continuum (0-37 salinity and across contrasting coastal oceans (sub-tropical, temperate, high-latitude. Overall, lignin concentrations spanned four orders of magnitude and revealed a strong, non-linear relationship with ag(λ. The characteristics of the relationship (shape, wavelength dependency, lignin-composition dependency and evidence from degradation indicators were all consistent with lignin being an important driver of CDOM variability in coastal oceans, and suggested physical mixing and long-term photodegradation were important in shaping the relationship. These observations were used to develop two simple empirical models for estimating lignin concentrations from ag(λ with a +/- 20% error relative to measured values. The models are expected to be applicable in most coastal oceans influenced by terrigenous inputs.

  16. An Assessment of the Model of Concentration Addition for Predicting the Estrogenic Activity of Chemical Mixtures in Wastewater Treatment Works Effluents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thorpe, Karen L.; Gross-Sorokin, Melanie; Johnson, Ian; Brighty, Geoff; Tyler, Charles R.

    2006-01-01

    The effects of simple mixtures of chemicals, with similar mechanisms of action, can be predicted using the concentration addition model (CA). The ability of this model to predict the estrogenic effects of more complex mixtures such as effluent discharges, however, has yet to be established. Effluents from 43 U.K. wastewater treatment works were analyzed for the presence of the principal estrogenic chemical contaminants, estradiol, estrone, ethinylestradiol, and nonylphenol. The measured concentrations were used to predict the estrogenic activity of each effluent, employing the model of CA, based on the relative potencies of the individual chemicals in an in vitro recombinant yeast estrogen screen (rYES) and a short-term (14-day) in vivo rainbow trout vitellogenin induction assay. Based on the measured concentrations of the four chemicals in the effluents and their relative potencies in each assay, the calculated in vitro and in vivo responses compared well and ranged between 3.5 and 87 ng/L of estradiol equivalents (E2 EQ) for the different effluents. In the rYES, however, the measured E2 EQ concentrations in the effluents ranged between 0.65 and 43 ng E2 EQ/L, and they varied against those predicted by the CA model. Deviations in the estimation of the estrogenic potency of the effluents by the CA model, compared with the measured responses in the rYES, are likely to have resulted from inaccuracies associated with the measurement of the chemicals in the extracts derived from the complex effluents. Such deviations could also result as a consequence of interactions between chemicals present in the extracts that disrupted the activation of the estrogen response elements in the rYES. E2 EQ concentrations derived from the vitellogenic response in fathead minnows exposed to a series of effluent dilutions were highly comparable with the E2 EQ concentrations derived from assessments of the estrogenic potency of these dilutions in the rYES. Together these data support the

  17. Pathologic Nodal Classification Is the Most Discriminating Prognostic Factor for Disease-Free Survival in Rectal Cancer Patients Treated With Preoperative Chemoradiotherapy and Curative Resection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Tae Hyun; Chang, Hee Jin; Kim, Dae Yong

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: We retrospectively evaluated the effects of clinical and pathologic factors on disease-free survival (DFS) with the aim of identifying the most discriminating factor predicting DFS in rectal cancer patients treated with preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and curative resection. Methods and Materials: The study involved 420 patients who underwent preoperative CRT and curative resection between August 2001 and October 2006. Gender, age, distance from the anal verge, histologic type, histologic grade, pretreatment carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, cT, cN, cStage, circumferential resection margin, type of surgery, preoperative chemotherapy, adjuvant chemotherapy, ypT, ypN, ypStage, and tumor regression grade (TRG) were analyzed to identify prognostic factors associated with DFS. To compare the discriminatory prognostic ability of four tumor response-related pathologic factors (ypT, ypN, ypStage, and TRG), the Akaike information criteria were calculated. Results: The 5-year DFS rate was 75.4%. On univariate analysis, distance from the anal verge, histologic type, histologic grade, pretreatment CEA level, cT, circumferential resection margin, type of surgery, preoperative chemotherapeutic regimen, ypT, ypN, ypStage, and TRG were significantly associated with DFS. Multivariate analysis showed that the four parameters ypT, ypN, ypStage, and TRG were, consistently, significant prognostic factors for DFS. The ypN showed the lowest Akaike information criteria value for DFS, followed by ypStage, ypT, and TRG, in that order. Conclusion: In our study, ypT, ypN, ypStage, and TRG were important prognostic factors for DFS, and ypN was the most discriminating factor.

  18. Use of urinary 13,14, dihydro-15-keto-prostaglandin F2α (PGFM) concentrations to diagnose pregnancy and predict parturition in the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanolecua).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roberts, Beth M; Brown, Janine L; Kersey, David C; Snyder, Rebecca J; Durrant, Barbara S; Kouba, Andrew J

    2018-01-01

    Pregnancy determination is difficult in the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanolecua), representing a challenge for ex situ conservation efforts. Research in other species experiencing pseudopregnancy indicates that urinary/fecal concentrations of 13,14, dihydro-15-keto-prostaglandin F2α (PGFM) can accurately determine pregnancy status. Our objective was to determine if urinary PGFM concentrations are associated with pregnancy status in the giant panda. Urinary PGFM concentrations were measured in female giant pandas (n = 4) throughout gestation (n = 6) and pseudopregnancy (n = 4) using a commercial enzyme immunoassay. Regardless of pregnancy status, PGFM excretion followed a predictable pattern: 1) baseline concentrations for 11-19 weeks following ovulation; 2) a modest, initial peak 14-36 days after the start of the secondary urinary progestagen rise; 3) a subsequent period of relatively low concentrations; and 4) a large, terminal peak at the end of the luteal phase. Pregnant profiles were distinguished by an earlier initial peak (P = 0.024), higher inter-peak concentrations (P panda. Furthermore, this is the only species known to exhibit a significant PGFM increase during pseudopregnancy, suggesting a unique physiological mechanism for regulating the end of the luteal phase in the giant panda.

  19. A Model to Predict the Steady-State Concentration of Hydroxyl Radicals in the Surface Layer of Natural Waters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minero, C.; Lauri, V.; Maurino, V.; Pelizzetti, E.; Vione, D.

    2007-01-01

    A model was developed to predict the steady-state [·OH] in the surface layer of natural waters as a function of nitrate, inorganic carbon (IC) and dissolved organic matter (DOM). The parameter values were studied in the range detected in shallow high-mountain lakes, to which the model results are most relevant. Calculations indicate that [·OH] increases with increasing nitrate and decreasing IC, and conditions are also identified where [·OH] is directly proportional, inversely proportional or independent of DOM. Based on the model results it is possible to predict the half-life time, due to reaction with ·OH, of given dissolved compounds, including organic pollutants, from the water composition data

  20. How well do blood folate concentrations predict dietary folate intakes in a sample of Canadian lactating women exposed to high levels of folate? An observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Houghton, Lisa A; Sherwood, Kelly L; O'Connor, Deborah L

    2007-10-25

    In 1998, mandatory folic acid fortification of white flour and select cereal grain products was implemented in Canada with the intention to increase dietary folate intakes of reproducing women. Folic acid fortification has produced a dramatic increase in blood folate concentrations among reproductive age women, and a reduction in neural tube defect (NTD)-affected pregnancies. In response to improved blood folate concentrations, many health care professionals are asking whether a folic acid supplement is necessary for NTD prevention among women with high blood folate values, and how reliably high RBC folate concentrations predict folate intakes shown in randomized controlled trials to be protective against NTDs. The objective of this study was to determine how predictive blood folate concentrations and folate intakes are of each other in a sample of well-educated lactating Canadian women exposed to high levels of synthetic folate. The relationship between blood folate concentrations and dietary folate intakes, determined by weighed food records, were assessed in a sample of predominantly university-educated lactating women (32 +/- 4 yr) at 4-(n = 53) and 16-wk postpartum (n = 55). Median blood folate concentrations of all participants were well above plasma and RBC folate cut-off levels indicative of deficiency (6.7 and 317 nmol/L, respectively) and all, except for 2 subjects, were above the cut-off for NTD-risk reduction (>906 nmol/L). Only modest associations existed between total folate intakes and plasma (r = 0.46, P consuming 151-410 microg/d of synthetic folate (2nd quartile of intake) did not differ from that of women consuming >410 microg/d (3rd and 4th quartile). Folate intakes, estimated by food composition tables, and blood folate concentrations are not predictive of each other in Canadian lactating women exposed to high levels of folate. Synthetic intakes > 151-410 microg/d in these women produced little additional benefit in terms of maximizing RBC

  1. How well do blood folate concentrations predict dietary folate intakes in a sample of Canadian lactating women exposed to high levels of folate? An observational study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sherwood Kelly L

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In 1998, mandatory folic acid fortification of white flour and select cereal grain products was implemented in Canada with the intention to increase dietary folate intakes of reproducing women. Folic acid fortification has produced a dramatic increase in blood folate concentrations among reproductive age women, and a reduction in neural tube defect (NTD-affected pregnancies. In response to improved blood folate concentrations, many health care professionals are asking whether a folic acid supplement is necessary for NTD prevention among women with high blood folate values, and how reliably high RBC folate concentrations predict folate intakes shown in randomized controlled trials to be protective against NTDs. The objective of this study was to determine how predictive blood folate concentrations and folate intakes are of each other in a sample of well-educated lactating Canadian women exposed to high levels of synthetic folate. Methods The relationship between blood folate concentrations and dietary folate intakes, determined by weighed food records, were assessed in a sample of predominantly university-educated lactating women (32 ± 4 yr at 4-(n = 53 and 16-wk postpartum (n = 55. Results Median blood folate concentrations of all participants were well above plasma and RBC folate cut-off levels indicative of deficiency (6.7 and 317 nmol/L, respectively and all, except for 2 subjects, were above the cut-off for NTD-risk reduction (>906 nmol/L. Only modest associations existed between total folate intakes and plasma (r = 0.46, P P nd quartile of intake did not differ from that of women consuming >410 μg/d (3rd and 4th quartile. Conclusion Folate intakes, estimated by food composition tables, and blood folate concentrations are not predictive of each other in Canadian lactating women exposed to high levels of folate. Synthetic intakes > 151–410 μg/d in these women produced little additional benefit in terms of maximizing

  2. Short-term effects of medetomidine on photosynthesis and protein synthesis in periphyton, epipsammon and plankton communities in relation to predicted environmental concentrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ohlauson, Cecilia; Eriksson, Karl Martin; Blanck, Hans

    2012-01-01

    Medetomidine is a new antifouling substance, highly effective against barnacles. As part of a thorough ecotoxicological evaluation of medetomidine, its short-term effects on algal and bacterial communities were investigated and environmental concentrations were predicted with the MAMPEC model. Photosynthesis and bacterial protein synthesis for three marine communities, viz. periphyton, epipsammon and plankton were used as effect indicators, and compared with the predicted environmental concentrations (PECs). The plankton community showed a significant decrease in photosynthetic activity of 16% at 2 mg l⁻¹ of medetomidine, which was the only significant effect observed. PECs were estimated for a harbor, shipping lane and marina environment using three different model scenarios (MAMPEC default, Baltic and OECD scenarios). The highest PEC of 57 ng l⁻¹, generated for a marina with the Baltic scenario, was at least 10,000-fold lower than the concentration that significantly decreased photosynthetic activity. It is concluded that medetomidine does not cause any acute toxic effects on bacterial protein synthesis and only small acute effects on photosynthesis at high concentrations in marine microbial communities. It is also concluded that the hazard from medetomidine on these processes is low since the effect levels are much lower than the highest PEC.

  3. A prediction model of ammonia emission from a fattening pig room based on the indoor concentration using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xie, Qiuju, E-mail: xqj197610@163.com [Institute of Information Technology, Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University, Daqing 163319 (China); Ni, Ji-qin [Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Su, Zhongbin [Institute of Electric and Information, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin 150030 (China)

    2017-03-05

    Highlights: • A prediction model of ammonia emission was built based on the indoor ammonia concentration prediction model using ANFIS. • Five kinds of membership functions were compared to get a well fitted prediction model. • Compared with the BP and MLRM model, the ANFIS prediction model with “gbell” membership function has the best performances. - Abstract: Ammonia (NH{sub 3}) is considered one of the significant pollutions contributor to indoor air quality and odor gas emission from swine house because of the negative impact on the health of pigs, the workers and local environment. Prediction models could provide a reasonable way for pig industries and environment regulatory to determine environment control strategies and give an effective method to evaluate the air quality. The adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) simulates human’s vague thinking manner to solve the ambiguity and nonlinear problems which are difficult to be processed by conventional mathematics. Five kinds of membership functions were used to build a well fitted ANFIS prediction model. It was shown that the prediction model with “Gbell” membership function had the best capabilities among those five kinds of membership functions, and it had the best performances compared with backpropagation (BP) neuro network model and multiple linear regression model (MLRM) both in wintertime and summertime, the smallest value of mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and standard deviation (SD) are 0.002 and 0.0047, 31.1599 and 23.6816, 0.0564 and 0.0802, respectively, and the largest coefficients of determination (R{sup 2}) are 0.6351 and 0.6483, repectively. The ANFIS prediction model could be served as a beneficial strategy for the environment control system that has input parameters with highly fluctuating, complexity, and non-linear relationship.

  4. A prediction model of ammonia emission from a fattening pig room based on the indoor concentration using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xie, Qiuju; Ni, Ji-qin; Su, Zhongbin

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • A prediction model of ammonia emission was built based on the indoor ammonia concentration prediction model using ANFIS. • Five kinds of membership functions were compared to get a well fitted prediction model. • Compared with the BP and MLRM model, the ANFIS prediction model with “gbell” membership function has the best performances. - Abstract: Ammonia (NH_3) is considered one of the significant pollutions contributor to indoor air quality and odor gas emission from swine house because of the negative impact on the health of pigs, the workers and local environment. Prediction models could provide a reasonable way for pig industries and environment regulatory to determine environment control strategies and give an effective method to evaluate the air quality. The adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) simulates human’s vague thinking manner to solve the ambiguity and nonlinear problems which are difficult to be processed by conventional mathematics. Five kinds of membership functions were used to build a well fitted ANFIS prediction model. It was shown that the prediction model with “Gbell” membership function had the best capabilities among those five kinds of membership functions, and it had the best performances compared with backpropagation (BP) neuro network model and multiple linear regression model (MLRM) both in wintertime and summertime, the smallest value of mean square error (MSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and standard deviation (SD) are 0.002 and 0.0047, 31.1599 and 23.6816, 0.0564 and 0.0802, respectively, and the largest coefficients of determination (R"2) are 0.6351 and 0.6483, repectively. The ANFIS prediction model could be served as a beneficial strategy for the environment control system that has input parameters with highly fluctuating, complexity, and non-linear relationship.

  5. Predictive Modeling and Concentration of the Risk of Suicide: Implications for Preventive Interventions in the US Department of Veterans Affairs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarthy, John F; Bossarte, Robert M; Katz, Ira R; Thompson, Caitlin; Kemp, Janet; Hannemann, Claire M; Nielson, Christopher; Schoenbaum, Michael

    2015-09-01

    The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) evaluated the use of predictive modeling to identify patients at risk for suicide and to supplement ongoing care with risk-stratified interventions. Suicide data came from the National Death Index. Predictors were measures from VHA clinical records incorporating patient-months from October 1, 2008, to September 30, 2011, for all suicide decedents and 1% of living patients, divided randomly into development and validation samples. We used data on all patients alive on September 30, 2010, to evaluate predictions of suicide risk over 1 year. Modeling demonstrated that suicide rates were 82 and 60 times greater than the rate in the overall sample in the highest 0.01% stratum for calculated risk for the development and validation samples, respectively; 39 and 30 times greater in the highest 0.10%; 14 and 12 times greater in the highest 1.00%; and 6.3 and 5.7 times greater in the highest 5.00%. Predictive modeling can identify high-risk patients who were not identified on clinical grounds. VHA is developing modeling to enhance clinical care and to guide the delivery of preventive interventions.

  6. Use of urinary 13,14, dihydro-15-keto-prostaglandin F2α (PGFM concentrations to diagnose pregnancy and predict parturition in the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanolecua.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Beth M Roberts

    Full Text Available Pregnancy determination is difficult in the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanolecua, representing a challenge for ex situ conservation efforts. Research in other species experiencing pseudopregnancy indicates that urinary/fecal concentrations of 13,14, dihydro-15-keto-prostaglandin F2α (PGFM can accurately determine pregnancy status. Our objective was to determine if urinary PGFM concentrations are associated with pregnancy status in the giant panda. Urinary PGFM concentrations were measured in female giant pandas (n = 4 throughout gestation (n = 6 and pseudopregnancy (n = 4 using a commercial enzyme immunoassay. Regardless of pregnancy status, PGFM excretion followed a predictable pattern: 1 baseline concentrations for 11-19 weeks following ovulation; 2 a modest, initial peak 14-36 days after the start of the secondary urinary progestagen rise; 3 a subsequent period of relatively low concentrations; and 4 a large, terminal peak at the end of the luteal phase. Pregnant profiles were distinguished by an earlier initial peak (P = 0.024, higher inter-peak concentrations (P < 0.001, and a larger terminal peak (P = 0.003 compared to pseudopregnancy profiles. Parturition occurred 23 to 25 days from the initial PGFM surge and within 24 hours of the start of the terminal increase. These pattern differences indicate that urinary PGFM monitoring can be used to predict pregnancy status and time parturition in the giant panda. Furthermore, this is the only species known to exhibit a significant PGFM increase during pseudopregnancy, suggesting a unique physiological mechanism for regulating the end of the luteal phase in the giant panda.

  7. A data mining approach to improve multiple regression models of soil nitrate concentration predictions in Quercus rotundifolia montados (Portugal)

    OpenAIRE

    Nunes, Jorge; Madeira, Manuel; Gazarini, Luiz; Neves, José; Vicente, Henrique

    2012-01-01

    The changes in the soil nitrate concentration were studied during 2 years in a ‘‘montado’’ ecosystem, in the South of Portugal. Total rainfall, air and soil temperature and soil water content under and outside Quercus rotundifolia canopy were also evaluated. A cluster analysis was carried out using climatic and microclimatic parameters in order to maximize the intraclass similarity and minimize the interclass similarity. It was used the k-Means Clustering Method. Se...

  8. Latex paint as a delivery vehicle for diethylphthalate and di-n-butylphthalate: predictable boundary layer concentrations and emission rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schripp, Tobias; Salthammer, Tunga; Fauck, Christian; Bekö, Gabriel; Weschler, Charles J

    2014-10-01

    The description of emission processes of volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds (VOCs and SVOCs) from building products requires a detailed understanding of the material and the air flow conditions at the surface boundary. The mass flux between the surface of the material and air depends on the mass transfer coefficient (hm) through the boundary layer, the gas phase concentration of the target compound immediately adjacent to the material (y0), and the gas-phase concentration in bulk air (y(t)). In the present study emission experiments were performed in two chambers of quite different sizes (0.25 m(3) and 55 m(3)), and, in the larger chamber, at two different temperatures (23°C and 30°C). The emitting material was latex wall paint that had been doped with two plasticizers, diethylphthalate (DEP) and di-n-butylphthalate (DnBP). The phthalate content in the paint was varied in the small chamber experiment to evaluate the impact of the initial concentration in the bulk material (C0) on the emission rate. Boundary layer theory was applied to calculate hm for the specific phthalates from the Sherwood number (Sh) and the diffusion coefficient (Dair). Then y0 was determined based on the bulk gas-phase concentration at steady state (y¯). For both, DEP and DnBP, the y0 obtained was lower than the respective saturation vapor pressure (Ps). Furthermore, for both phthalates in latex paint, the material/air partition coefficient (C0/y0) was close in value to the octanol/air partition coefficient (KOA). This study provides a basis for designing phthalate emitting reference materials that mimic the emission behavior of common building materials. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. GABA concentration in superior temporal sulcus predicts gamma power and perception in the sound-induced flash illusion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balz, Johanna; Keil, Julian; Roa Romero, Yadira; Mekle, Ralf; Schubert, Florian; Aydin, Semiha; Ittermann, Bernd; Gallinat, Jürgen; Senkowski, Daniel

    2016-01-15

    In everyday life we are confronted with inputs of multisensory stimuli that need to be integrated across our senses. Individuals vary considerably in how they integrate multisensory information, yet the neurochemical foundations underlying this variability are not well understood. Neural oscillations, especially in the gamma band (>30Hz) play an important role in multisensory processing. Furthermore, gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) neurotransmission contributes to the generation of gamma band oscillations (GBO), which can be sustained by activation of metabotropic glutamate receptors. Hence, differences in the GABA and glutamate systems might contribute to individual differences in multisensory processing. In this combined magnetic resonance spectroscopy and electroencephalography study, we examined the relationships between GABA and glutamate concentrations in the superior temporal sulcus (STS), source localized GBO, and illusion rate in the sound-induced flash illusion (SIFI). In 39 human volunteers we found robust relationships between GABA concentration, GBO power, and the SIFI perception rate (r-values=0.44 to 0.53). The correlation between GBO power and SIFI perception rate was about twofold higher when the modulating influence of the GABA level was included in the analysis as compared to when it was excluded. No significant effects were obtained for glutamate concentration. Our study suggests that the GABA level shapes individual differences in audiovisual perception through its modulating influence on GBO. GABA neurotransmission could be a promising target for treatment interventions of multisensory processing deficits in clinical populations, such as schizophrenia or autism. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Radiotherapy alone for non-small cell lung carcinoma. Five-year disease-free survival and patterns of failure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koukourakis, M.; Skarlatos, J.; Kosma, L.; Yannakakis, D.; Giatromanolaki, A.

    1995-01-01

    One hundred and fifty-three patients with inoperable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with radiotherapy alone have been retrospectively analysed. Normalized Total Dose (NTD) as defined by Macejewski, TN-stage (AJC-system) and histology have been examined with respect to 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and the patterns of failure so as to identify subgroups of patients that routinely should be treated with radical intent. The 5-year DFS for T1, 2-N0, 1 and T3-N0, 1 staged patients was 30% (7/23) and 25% (4/16) respectively when the tumor NTD (a/b=10 Gy) was 56-64 Gy vs. 12% (5/41) and 0% (0/10) when the NTD was 48-55 Gy. This difference was statistically significant for the squamous cell histology group. The higher doses significantly altered the patterns of death in N0, 1 staged squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma patients. Forty-five percent (22/55) and 41% (12/29) of squamous cell adenocarcinoma patients respectively, died from local relapse without evidence of distant metastases when NTD less than 55 Gy were given vs. 21% (9/42) and 13% (2/15) when the NTD delivered was 56-64 Gy (p<0.05). Although for N2, 3 staged patients or patients with direct extension of the tumor into the mediastinum death from local relapse occurred in 38% (10/26) of the high NTD treated patients vs. 51% (19/37) of the low-dose treated ones, the difference was not statistically significant. It is concluded that NSCLC patients should not a priori be considered as non-radiocurable. At least 30% of the patients with early local stages can be long-term disease-free survivors with readiation NTD up to 60 Gy and better results are to be expected with higher doses. Advanced T-stage without mediastinal involvement should be treated with radical intent since a high NTD could give cure rates of over 25%. The disappointing results for patients with mediastinal disease could perhaps be attributed to the low NTD delivered. For patients with good performance status

  11. Predictive model accuracy in estimating last Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) intake from plasma and whole blood cannabinoid concentrations in chronic, daily cannabis smokers administered subchronic oral THC.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karschner, Erin L; Schwope, David M; Schwilke, Eugene W; Goodwin, Robert S; Kelly, Deanna L; Gorelick, David A; Huestis, Marilyn A

    2012-10-01

    Determining time since last cannabis/Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) exposure is important in clinical, workplace, and forensic settings. Mathematical models calculating time of last exposure from whole blood concentrations typically employ a theoretical 0.5 whole blood-to-plasma (WB/P) ratio. No studies previously evaluated predictive models utilizing empirically-derived WB/P ratios, or whole blood cannabinoid pharmacokinetics after subchronic THC dosing. Ten male chronic, daily cannabis smokers received escalating around-the-clock oral THC (40-120 mg daily) for 8 days. Cannabinoids were quantified in whole blood and plasma by two-dimensional gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Maximum whole blood THC occurred 3.0 h after the first oral THC dose and 103.5h (4.3 days) during multiple THC dosing. Median WB/P ratios were THC 0.63 (n=196), 11-hydroxy-THC 0.60 (n=189), and 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC (THCCOOH) 0.55 (n=200). Predictive models utilizing these WB/P ratios accurately estimated last cannabis exposure in 96% and 100% of specimens collected within 1-5h after a single oral THC dose and throughout multiple dosing, respectively. Models were only 60% and 12.5% accurate 12.5 and 22.5h after the last THC dose, respectively. Predictive models estimating time since last cannabis intake from whole blood and plasma cannabinoid concentrations were inaccurate during abstinence, but highly accurate during active THC dosing. THC redistribution from large cannabinoid body stores and high circulating THCCOOH concentrations create different pharmacokinetic profiles than those in less than daily cannabis smokers that were used to derive the models. Thus, the models do not accurately predict time of last THC intake in individuals consuming THC daily. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

  12. Prothrombin time is predictive of low plasma prothrombin concentration and clinical outcome in patients with trauma hemorrhage: analyses of prospective observational cohort studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balendran, Clare A; Lövgren, Ann; Hansson, Kenny M; Nelander, Karin; Olsson, Marita; Johansson, Karin J; Brohi, Karim; Fries, Dietmar; Berggren, Anders

    2017-03-14

    Fibrinogen and prothrombin have been suggested to become rate limiting in trauma associated coagulopathy. Administration of fibrinogen is now recommended, however, the importance of prothrombin to patient outcome is unknown. We have utilized two trauma patient databases (database 1 n = 358 and database 2 n = 331) to investigate the relationship of plasma prothrombin concentration on clinical outcome and coagulation status. Database 1 has been used to assess the relationship of plasma prothrombin to administered packed red blood cells (PRBC), clinical outcome and coagulation biomarkers (Prothrombin Time (PT), ROTEM EXTEM Coagulation Time (CT) and Maximum Clot Firmness (MCF)). ROC analyses have been performed to investigate the ability of admission coagulation biomarkers to predict low prothrombin concentration (database 1), massive transfusion and 24 h mortality (database 1 and 2). The importance of prothrombin was further investigated in vitro by PT and ROTEM assays in the presence of a prothrombin neutralizing monoclonal antibody and following step-wise dilution. Patients who survived the first 24 h had higher admission prothrombin levels compared to those who died (94 vs.67 IU/dL). Patients with lower transfusion requirements within the first 24 h (≤10 units of PRBCs) also had higher admission prothrombin levels compared to patients with massive transfusion demands (>10 units of PRBCs) (95 vs.62 IU/dL). Admission PT, in comparison to admission ROTEM EXTEM CT and MCF, was found to be a better predictor of prothrombin concentration <60 IU/dL (AUC 0.94 in database 1), of massive transfusion (AUC 0.92 and 0.81 in database 1 and 2 respectively) and 24 h mortality (AUC 0.90 and 0.78 in database 1 and 2, respectively). In vitro experiments supported a critical role for prothrombin in coagulation and demonstrated that PT and ROTEM EXTEM CT are sensitive methods to measure low prothrombin concentration. Our analyses suggest that prothrombin concentration

  13. Effect of Hydrograph Separation on Suspended Sediment Concentration Predictions in a Forested Headwater with Thick Soil and Weathered Gneiss Layers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naoki Kabeya

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Two-component hydrograph separation using oxygen-18 concentrations was conducted at a sediment runoff observation weir installed in a small subcatchment of a forested gneiss catchment in Japan. The mean soil thickness of this catchment is 7.27 m, which comprises 3.29 m of brown forest soil (A and B layers and a 3.98-m layer of heavily weathered gneiss. Data were collected for a storm on 20–21 May 2003, and the percentage of event water separated by the stable isotope ratio in comparison with the total rainfall amount was about 1%. This value is within the ratio of a riparian zone in a drainage area. Temporal variation of suspended sediment concentration exhibited higher correlation with the event water component than with the total runoff or pre-event water component. This shows that the riparian zone causes rainwater to flow out quickly during a rain event, and that this is an important area of sediment production and transportation in a forested headwater with thick soil and weathered gneiss layers.

  14. Glutamate concentration in the medial prefrontal cortex predicts resting-state cortical-subcortical functional connectivity in humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Niall W Duncan

    Full Text Available Communication between cortical and subcortical regions is integral to a wide range of psychological processes and has been implicated in a number of psychiatric conditions. Studies in animals have provided insight into the biochemical and connectivity processes underlying such communication. However, to date no experiments that link these factors in humans in vivo have been carried out. To investigate the role of glutamate in individual differences in communication between the cortex--specifically the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC--and subcortical regions in humans, a combination of resting-state fMRI, DTI and MRS was performed. The subcortical target regions were the nucleus accumbens (NAc, dorsomedial thalamus (DMT, and periaqueductal grey (PAG. It was found that functional connectivity between the mPFC and each of the NAc and DMT was positively correlated with mPFC glutamate concentrations, whilst functional connectivity between the mPFC and PAG was negatively correlated with glutamate concentration. The correlations involving mPFC glutamate and FC between the mPFC and each of the DMT and PAG were mirrored by correlations with structural connectivity, providing evidence that the glutamatergic relationship may, in part, be due to direct connectivity. These results are in agreement with existing results from animal studies and may have relevance for MDD and schizophrenia.

  15. diseases free body

    OpenAIRE

    thararose

    2018-01-01

    Diseases are very common now a days . It is our food habits itself that causes this diseases. Diseases can cause many health problems. goiter causes and symptoms It is very important to follow healthy food habits and to maintain good health. A healthy body is always a treasure to every person.

  16. Predicting residential indoor concentrations of nitrogen dioxide, fine particulate matter, and elemental carbon using questionnaire and geographic information system based data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baxter, Lisa K.; Clougherty, Jane E.; Paciorek, Christopher J.; Wright, Rosalind J.; Levy, Jonathan I.

    Previous studies have identified associations between traffic-related air pollution and adverse health effects. Most have used measurements from a few central ambient monitors and/or some measure of traffic as indicators of exposure, disregarding spatial variability and factors influencing personal exposure-ambient concentration relationships. This study seeks to utilize publicly available data (i.e., central site monitors, geographic information system, and property assessment data) and questionnaire responses to predict residential indoor concentrations of traffic-related air pollutants for lower socioeconomic status (SES) urban households. As part of a prospective birth cohort study in urban Boston, we collected indoor and outdoor 3-4 day samples of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) in 43 low SES residences across multiple seasons from 2003 to 2005. Elemental carbon (EC) concentrations were determined via reflectance analysis. Multiple traffic indicators were derived using Massachusetts Highway Department data and traffic counts collected outside sampling homes. Home characteristics and occupant behaviors were collected via a standardized questionnaire. Additional housing information was collected through property tax records, and ambient concentrations were collected from a centrally located ambient monitor. The contributions of ambient concentrations, local traffic and indoor sources to indoor concentrations were quantified with regression analyses. PM 2.5 was influenced less by local traffic but had significant indoor sources, while EC was associated with traffic and NO 2 with both traffic and indoor sources. Comparing models based on covariate selection using p-values or a Bayesian approach yielded similar results, with traffic density within a 50 m buffer of a home and distance from a truck route as important contributors to indoor levels of NO 2 and EC, respectively. The Bayesian approach also highlighted the uncertanity in the

  17. Health-related quality of life of patients with endometrial cancer who are disease-free following external irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klee, Marianne; Machin, David

    2001-01-01

    Health-related quality of life (HQoL) is assessed through the patients' own evaluation of the impact that a disease and its treatment may have on some of the physical, psychological and social aspects of their lives. The purpose of this study is to describe the HQoL of patients with endometrial cancer who are free of disease after undergoing external irradiation. An HQoL questionnaire was designed and validated, and consisted of the EORTC QLQ-C30 and 80 additional questions. The patients provided self-reported assessments at the end of radiotherapy, and 1, 3, 6, 12, 18 and 24 months later. Forty-nine out of 66 potential subjects participated in the study, which was confined to the period during which the women were disease free. Most patients experience physical side effects at the end of treatment and up to 6 months thereafter; 10% of the patients have chronic local symptoms and a large number of the patients think about their treatment even two years later. The patients' overall evaluation of their quality of life is lower than that of a matched population of healthy women

  18. Young age: an independent risk factor for disease-free survival in women with operable breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, Wonshik; Kim, Seok Won; Ae Park, In; Kang, Daehee; Kim, Sung-Won; Youn, Yeo-Kyu; Oh, Seung Keun; Choe, Kuk Jin; Noh, Dong-Young

    2004-01-01

    The incidence of breast cancer in young women (age < 35) is low. The biology of the disease in this age group is poorly understood, and there are conflicting data regarding the prognosis for these women compared to older patients. We retrospectively analyzed 2040 consecutive primary invasive breast cancer patients who underwent surgical procedures at our institution between 1990 and 1999. The younger age group was defined as patients aged <35 years at the time of diagnosis. The clinicopathological characteristics and treatment outcomes were compared between younger and older age groups. A total of 256 (12.5%) patients were aged <35. There was a significantly higher incidence of nuclear grade 3 and medullary histological-type tumors in younger patients compared to older patients. Axillary lymph node status, T stage, histological grade, c-erbB2 expression and estrogen receptor status did not differ significantly between the two age groups. Younger patients had a greater probability of recurrence and death at all time periods. Although there was no significant difference in disease-free survival between the two age groups in lymph node-negative patients, the younger group showed worse prognosis among lymph node-positive patients (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, young age remained a significant predictor of recurrence (p = 0.010). Young age (<35) is an independent risk factor for relapse in operable breast cancer patients

  19. Selection of representative calibration sample sets for near-infrared reflectance spectroscopy to predict nitrogen concentration in grasses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shetty, Nisha; Rinnan, Åsmund; Gislum, René

    2012-01-01

    ) algorithm were used and compared. Both Puchwein and CADEX methods provide a calibration set equally distributed in space, and both methods require a minimum prior of knowledge. The samples were also selected randomly using complete random, cultivar random (year fixed), year random (cultivar fixed......) and interaction (cultivar × year fixed) random procedures to see the influence of different factors on sample selection. Puchwein's method performed best with lowest RMSEP followed by CADEX, interaction random, year random, cultivar random and complete random. Out of 118 samples of the complete calibration set...... effectively enhance the cost-effectiveness of NIR spectral analysis by reducing the number of analyzed samples in the calibration set by more than 80%, which substantially reduces the effort of laboratory analyses with no significant loss in prediction accuracy....

  20. Plasma concentration of asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) predicts cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in type 1 diabetic patients with diabetic nephropathy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lajer, Maria Stenkil; Tarnow, Lise; Jorsal, Anders

    2008-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether circulating asymmetric dimethylarginine (ADMA) levels are predictive of cardiovascular events, decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR), end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and all-cause mortality in type 1 diabetic patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We...... performed a prospective observational follow-up study including 397 type 1 diabetic patients with overt diabetic nephropathy (243 men aged 42.1 +/- 10.5 years, GFR 76 +/- 34 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)) and a control group of 175 patients with longstanding type 1 diabetes and persistent normoalbuminuria (104 men...... aged 42.7 +/- 9.7 years, duration of diabetes 27.7 +/- 8.3 years). Patients were followed for a median 11.3 years (range 0.0-12.9) with yearly measurements of GFR ((51)Cr-EDTA plasma clearance) in patients with diabetic nephropathy. Endpoints were fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD...

  1. Low concentration of circulating antimüllerian hormone is not predictive of reduced fecundability in young healthy women

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hagen, Casper; Vestergaard, Sonja; Juul, Anders

    2012-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether circulating levels of antimüllerian hormone (AMH) predict fecundability in young healthy women. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: General community. PATIENT(S): A total of 186 couples who intended to discontinue contraception to become pregnant were followed...... compared with women with low or medium AMH levels, and they had higher levels of LH (geometric mean: 8.4 vs. 5.3 IU/L) and LH:FSH ratio (2.4 vs. 1.8). After exclusion of women with irregular cycles, women with high AMH still had reduced fecundability (FR 0.48; 95% CI 0.27-0.85) and elevated LH:FSH ratio (2...

  2. A calibration to predict the concentrations of impurities in plutonium oxide by prompt gamma analysis: Revision 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narlesky, Joshua E.; Foster, Lynn A.; Kelly, Elizabeth J.; Murray, Roy E. IV

    2009-01-01

    Over 5,500 containers of excess plutonium-bearing materials have been packaged for long-term storage following the requirements of DOE-STD- 3013. Knowledge of the chemical impurities in the packaged materials is important because certain impurities, such as chloride salts, affect the behavior of the material in storage leading to gas generation and corrosion when sufficient moisture also is present. In most cases, the packaged materials are not well characterized, and information about the chemical impurities is limited to knowledge of the material's processing history. The alpha-particle activity from the plutonium and americium isotopes provides a method of nondestructive self-interrogation to identify certain light elements through the characteristic, prompt gamma rays that are emitted from alpha-particle-induced reactions with these elements. Gamma-ray spectra are obtained for each 3013 container using a highresolution, coaxial high-purity germanium detector. These gamma-ray spectra are scanned from 800 to 5,000 keV for characteristic, prompt gamma rays from the detectable elements, which include lithium, beryllium, boron, nitrogen, oxygen, fluorine, sodium, magnesium, aluminum, silicon, phosphorus, chlorine, and potassium. The lower limits of detection for these elements in a plutonium-oxide matrix increase with atomic number and range from 100 or 200 ppm for the lightest elements such as lithium and beryllium, to 19,000 ppm for potassium. The peak areas from the characteristic, prompt gamma rays can be used to estimate the concentration of the light-element impurities detected in the material on a semiquantitative basis. The use of prompt gamma analysis to assess impurity concentrations avoids the expense and the risks generally associated with performing chemical analysis on radioactive materials. The analyzed containers are grouped by impurity content, which helps to identify high-risk containers for surveillance and in sorting materials before packaging.

  3. Using different assumptions of aerosol mixing state and chemical composition to predict CCN concentrations based on field measurements in urban Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Jingye; Zhang, Fang; Wang, Yuying; Collins, Don; Fan, Xinxin; Jin, Xiaoai; Xu, Weiqi; Sun, Yele; Cribb, Maureen; Li, Zhanqing

    2018-05-01

    Understanding the impacts of aerosol chemical composition and mixing state on cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) activity in polluted areas is crucial for accurately predicting CCN number concentrations (NCCN). In this study, we predict NCCN under five assumed schemes of aerosol chemical composition and mixing state based on field measurements in Beijing during the winter of 2016. Our results show that the best closure is achieved with the assumption of size dependent chemical composition for which sulfate, nitrate, secondary organic aerosols, and aged black carbon are internally mixed with each other but externally mixed with primary organic aerosol and fresh black carbon (external-internal size-resolved, abbreviated as EI-SR scheme). The resulting ratios of predicted-to-measured NCCN (RCCN_p/m) were 0.90 - 0.98 under both clean and polluted conditions. Assumption of an internal mixture and bulk chemical composition (INT-BK scheme) shows good closure with RCCN_p/m of 1.0 -1.16 under clean conditions, implying that it is adequate for CCN prediction in continental clean regions. On polluted days, assuming the aerosol is internally mixed and has a chemical composition that is size dependent (INT-SR scheme) achieves better closure than the INT-BK scheme due to the heterogeneity and variation in particle composition at different sizes. The improved closure achieved using the EI-SR and INT-SR assumptions highlight the importance of measuring size-resolved chemical composition for CCN predictions in polluted regions. NCCN is significantly underestimated (with RCCN_p/m of 0.66 - 0.75) when using the schemes of external mixtures with bulk (EXT-BK scheme) or size-resolved composition (EXT-SR scheme), implying that primary particles experience rapid aging and physical mixing processes in urban Beijing. However, our results show that the aerosol mixing state plays a minor role in CCN prediction when the κorg exceeds 0.1.

  4. Predicting criteria continuous concentrations of 34 metals or metalloids by use of quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mu, Yunsong; Wu, Fengchang; Chen, Cheng; Liu, Yuedan; Zhao, Xiaoli; Haiqing Liao; Giesy, John P

    2014-05-01

    Criteria continuous concentrations (CCCs) are useful for describing chronic exposure to pollutants and setting water quality standards to protect aquatic life. However, because of financial, practical, or ethical restrictions on toxicity testing, few data are available to derive CCCs. In this study, CCCs for 34 metals or metalloids were derived using quantitative ion character-activity relationships-species sensitivity distributions (QICAR-SSD) and the final acute-chronic ratio (FACR) method. The results showed that chronic toxic potencies were correlated with several physico-chemical properties among eight species chosen, where the softness index was the most predictive characteristic. Predicted CCCs for most of the metals, except for Lead and Iron, were within a range of 10-fold of values recommended by the U.S. EPA. The QICAR-SSD model was superior to the FACR method for prediction of data-poor metals. This would have significance for predicting toxic potencies and criteria thresholds of more metals or metalloids. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Rational molecular dynamics scheme for predicting optimum concentration loading of nano-additive in phase change materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Monisha Rastogi

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The present study deals with the diffusion and phase transition behaviour of paraffin reinforced with carbon nano-additives namely graphene oxide (GO and surface functionalized single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT. Bulk disordered systems of paraffin hydrocarbons impregnated with carbon nano-additives have been generated in realistic equilibrium conformations for potential application as latent heat storage systems. Ab initio molecular dynamics(MD in conjugation with COMPASS forcefield has been implemented using periodic boundary conditions. The proposed scheme allows determination of optimum nano-additive loading for improving thermo-physical properties through analysis of mass, thermal and transport properties; and assists in determination of composite behaviour and related performance from microscopic point of view. It was observed that nanocomposites containing 7.8 % surface functionalised SWCNT and 55% GO loading corresponds to best latent heat storage system. The propounded methodology could serve as a by-pass route for economically taxing and iterative experimental procedures required to attain the optimum composition for best performance. The results also hint at the large unexplored potential of ab-initio classical MD techniques for predicting performance of new nanocomposites for potential phase change material applications.

  6. Rational molecular dynamics scheme for predicting optimum concentration loading of nano-additive in phase change materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rastogi, Monisha; Vaish, Rahul; Madhar, Niyaz Ahamad; Shaikh, Hamid; Al-Zahrani, S. M.

    2015-10-01

    The present study deals with the diffusion and phase transition behaviour of paraffin reinforced with carbon nano-additives namely graphene oxide (GO) and surface functionalized single walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNT). Bulk disordered systems of paraffin hydrocarbons impregnated with carbon nano-additives have been generated in realistic equilibrium conformations for potential application as latent heat storage systems. Ab initio molecular dynamics(MD) in conjugation with COMPASS forcefield has been implemented using periodic boundary conditions. The proposed scheme allows determination of optimum nano-additive loading for improving thermo-physical properties through analysis of mass, thermal and transport properties; and assists in determination of composite behaviour and related performance from microscopic point of view. It was observed that nanocomposites containing 7.8 % surface functionalised SWCNT and 55% GO loading corresponds to best latent heat storage system. The propounded methodology could serve as a by-pass route for economically taxing and iterative experimental procedures required to attain the optimum composition for best performance. The results also hint at the large unexplored potential of ab-initio classical MD techniques for predicting performance of new nanocomposites for potential phase change material applications.

  7. Design and testing of a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system for predicting concentrations of agrichemicals in groundwater across the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbash, Jack E; Voss, Frank D.

    2016-03-29

    Efforts to assess the likelihood of groundwater contamination from surface-derived compounds have spanned more than three decades. Relatively few of these assessments, however, have involved the use of process-based simulations of contaminant transport and fate in the subsurface, or compared the predictions from such models with measured data—especially over regional to national scales. To address this need, a process-based groundwater vulnerability assessment (P-GWAVA) system was constructed to use transport-and-fate simulations to predict the concentration of any surface-derived compound at a specified depth in the vadose zone anywhere in the conterminous United States. The system was then used to simulate the concentrations of selected agrichemicals in the vadose zone beneath agricultural areas in multiple locations across the conterminous United States. The simulated concentrations were compared with measured concentrations of the compounds detected in shallow groundwater (that is, groundwater drawn from within a depth of 6.3 ± 0.5 meters [mean ± 95 percent confidence interval] below the water table) in more than 1,400 locations across the United States. The results from these comparisons were used to select the simulation approaches that led to the closest agreement between the simulated and the measured concentrations.The P-GWAVA system uses computer simulations that account for a broader range of the hydrologic, physical, biological and chemical phenomena known to control the transport and fate of solutes in the subsurface than has been accounted for by any other vulnerability assessment over regional to national scales. Such phenomena include preferential transport and the influences of temperature, soil properties, and depth on the partitioning, transport, and transformation of pesticides in the subsurface. Published methods and detailed soil property data are used to estimate a wide range of model input parameters for each site, including surface

  8. Microparticle content of platelet concentrates is predicted by donor microparticles and is altered by production methods and stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maurer-Spurej, Elisabeth; Larsen, Rune; Labrie, Audrey; Heaton, Andrew; Chipperfield, Kate

    2016-08-01

    In circulation, shedding of microparticles from a variety of viable cells can be triggered by pathological activation of inflammatory processes, by activation of coagulation or complement systems, or by physical stress. Elevated microparticle content (MPC) in donor blood might therefore indicate a clinical condition of the donor which, upon transfusion, might affect the recipient. In blood products, elevated MPC might also represent product stress. Surprisingly, the MPC in blood collected from normal blood donors is highly variable, which raises the question whether donor microparticles are present in-vivo and transfer into the final blood component, and how production methods and post-production processing might affect the MPC. We measured MPC using ThromboLUX in (a) platelet-rich plasma (PRP) of 54 apheresis donors and the corresponding apheresis products, (b) 651 apheresis and 646 pooled platelet concentrates (PCs) with plasma and 414 apheresis PCs in platelet additive solution (PAS), and (c) apheresis PCs before and after transportation, gamma irradiation, and pathogen inactivation (N = 8, 7, and 12 respectively). ThromboLUX-measured MPC in donor PRP and their corresponding apheresis PC samples were highly correlated (r = 0.82, P = .001). The average MPC in pooled PC was slightly lower than that in apheresis PC and substantially lower in apheresis PC stored with PAS rather than plasma. Mirasol Pathogen Reduction treatment significantly increased MPC with age. Thus, MPC measured in donor samples might be a useful predictor of product stability, especially if post-production processes are necessary. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  9. Can mud (silt and clay) concentration be used to predict soil organic carbon content within seagrass ecosystems?

    KAUST Repository

    Serrano, Oscar

    2016-09-07

    The emerging field of blue carbon science is seeking cost-effective ways to estimate the organic carbon content of soils that are bound by coastal vegetated ecosystems. Organic carbon (C-org) content in terrestrial soils and marine sediments has been correlated with mud content (i.e., silt and clay, particle sizes <63 mu m), however, empirical tests of this theory are lacking for coastal vegetated ecosystems. Here, we compiled data (n = 1345) on the relationship between C-org and mud contents in seagrass ecosystems (79 cores) and adjacent bare sediments (21 cores) to address whether mud can be used to predict soil C-org content. We also combined these data with the delta C-13 signatures of the soil C-org to understand the sources of Corg stores. The results showed that mud is positively correlated with soil C-org content only when the contribution of seagrass-derived C-org to the sedimentary C-org pool is relatively low, such as in small and fast-growing meadows of the genera Zostera, Halodule and Halophila, and in bare sediments adjacent to seagrass ecosystems. In large and long-living seagrass meadows of the genera Posidonia and Amphibolis there was a lack of, or poor relationship between mud and soil C-org content, related to a higher contribution of seagrass-derived C-org to the sedimentary C-org pool in these meadows. The relatively high soil C-org contents with relatively low mud contents (e.g., mud-C-org saturation) in bare sediments and Zostera, Halodule and Halophila meadows was related to significant allochthonous inputs of terrestrial organic matter, while higher contribution of seagrass detritus in Amphibolis and Posidonia meadows disrupted the correlation expected between soil C-org and mud contents. This study shows that mud is not a universal proxy for blue carbon content in seagrass ecosystems, and therefore should not be applied generally across all seagrass habitats. Mud content can only be used as a proxy to estimate soil C-org content for

  10. In-Stream Sediment Dynamics for predicted environmental concentration calculations of plant protection products in the FOCUSSW Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strehmel, Alexander; Erzgräber, Beate; Gottesbüren, Bernhard

    2016-04-01

    The exposure assessment for the EU registration procedure of plant protection products (PPP), which is based on the 'Forum for the co-ordination of pesticide fate models and their use' (FOCUS), currently considers only periods of 12-16 months for the exposure assessment in surface water bodies. However, in a recent scientific opinion of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) it is argued that in a multi-year exposure assessment, the accumulation of PPP substances in river sediment may be a relevant process. Therefore, the EFSA proposed to introduce a sediment accumulation factor in order to account for enrichment of PPP substances over several years in the sediment. The calculation of this accumulation factor, however, would consider degradation in sediment as the only dissipation path, and does not take into account riverine sediment dynamics. In order to assess the influence of deposition and the possible extent of substance accumulation in the sediment phase, the hydraulic model HEC-RAS was employed for an assessment of in-stream sediment dynamics of the FOCUS stream scenarios. The model was parameterized according to the stream characteristics of the FOCUS scenarios and was run over a period of 20 years. The results show that with the distribution of grain sizes and the ranges of flow velocity in the FOCUS streams the main sediment process in the streams is transport. First modeling results suggest that about 80% of the eroded sediment mass from the adjacent field are transported to the downstream end of the stream and out of the system, while only about 20% are deposited in the river bed. At the same time, only about 30% of in-stream sediment mass stems from the adjacent field and is associated with PPP substance, while the remaining sediment consists of the substance-free base sediment concentration regarded in the scenarios. With this, the hydraulic modelling approach is able to support the development of a meaningful sediment accumulation factor by

  11. Evaluation of postradiotherapy PSA patterns and correlation with 10-year disease free survival outcomes for prostate cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zelefsky, Michael J.; Ben-Porat, Leah; Chan, Heather M.; Fearn, Paul A.; Venkatraman, Ennapadam S.

    2006-01-01

    Purpose: To describe the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) pattern profiles observed after external beam radiotherapy with and without short-term neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (ST-ADT) and to report the association of established posttreatment PSA patterns with long-term disease-free survival outcomes. Methods and Materials: A total of 1,665 patients were treated with conformal external beam radiotherapy for clinically localized prostate cancer. Of 570 patients who had the requisite >10 consecutive PSA measurements for statistical analysis, 194 patients received a median of 3 months of ADT before radiotherapy and 376 were treated with radiotherapy alone. The median follow up was 103 months. Results: In the group treated with ST-ADT, three distinct postradiotherapy PSA patterns were identified: a stable trend (44%), an increasing trend followed by stabilization of the PSA (25%), and an increasing trend (31%). Among the subgroup that demonstrated a rising and subsequent stabilizing patterns, PSA levels had gradually risen to a median value of 0.9 ng/mL after therapy, stabilized, and remained durably suppressed. The only identified trends among patients treated with external beam radiotherapy without ST-ADT were declining PSA levels followed by stable PSA trends or declining patterns followed by rising levels. Patients whose PSA levels stabilized after an initial rise or those with slowly rising PSA profiles had a lower incidence of distant metastasis compared to those with accelerated rises after therapy. Conclusions: For those treated with external beam radiotherapy in conjunction with ST-ADT, a significant percentage who develop a rising PSA after treatment are expected to manifest subsequent stabilization at plateaued levels of approximately 1.0 ng/mL, which can remain durably suppressed. The likelihood of distant metastasis in these patients is low despite the PSA stabilization at levels 1.0 ng/mL or higher and comparable to outcomes observed for those

  12. Prediction of concentration and model validation - key issues in assessment of long term safety for radioactive waste disposal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, S.; Dverstorp, B.; Woerman, A.

    2008-01-01

    Post-closure safety assessments for nuclear waste repositories involve radioecological modelling for en,underground source term. In this paper we discuss critical aspects concerning process understanding and justification of simplified radioecological models used for such safety assessments. This study is part of the Swedish Radiation Protection Authority's (SSI) work on reviewing the Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co's (SKB) most recent safety assessment, SR-Can. One of the most challenging tasks in assessments of environmental doses and risk from an underground repository is to estimate radionuclide activity concentrations in various geologic strata in the future. For example, little is known about transport pathways through the quaternary deposits to the discharge points in surface waters and other recipients in the biosphere. Traditionally simplified compartmental models are used in safety assessment to describe the fate of radio-nuclides in surface environment. The possibility to test such models against more detailed process models and site specific data is of key importance for confidence in the safety assessment. As part of SSI's review of SR-Can, alternative modelling approaches were developed to explore the importance of transport process descriptions in the assessment models. The modelling results were compared with the Landscape Dose Factors (LDFs) derived by SKB in SR-Can. LDFs is a new methodology adapted by SKB in SR-Can. The LDFs are defined in the units of Sv/y per Bq/y and express all the radiological information about individual epository sites and ecosystems as a single, radionuclide-specific, number that relates geosphere releases to radiological dose. Further, we suggest a method for validating model parameters using data from field tracer tests. In two companion papers we present the underlying model framework for pathway analyses and a newly developed numerical module within the numerical software Ecolego Toolbox. Transport models

  13. Prediction of milk, fat and protein yields in first lactation from serum ß-lactoglobulin concentrations during gestation in Italian Brown heifers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paola Superchi

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available The Authors report the results of a study carried out on 23 pregnant Italian Brown heifers, with the aim to determine the relationships between blood serum ß-lactoglobulin (ß-LG concentrations during first gestation and subsequent milk production and quality in first lactation, in order to obtain an improved selection method for replacement heifers. At weeks 20, 26 and 32 of gestation, ß-LG concentrations (±SE were 706±78, 753±66 and 772±63 ng/ml, respectively (P>0.05. High and significant (P≤0.05 correlation coefficients were observed only between ß-LG content at week 32 and total milk and protein yields in first lactation. Prediction equations of milk, fat and protein production in first lactation from log10 ß-LG content at week 32 of gestation, from parent average genetic indexes and from both were calculated by means of multiple regression analysis. When the contribution of both ß-LG content and predicted genetic indexes were considered, the regression equations gave generally a better estimate of the production parameters in first lactation (higher R2, lower SE of estimate than the above mentioned parameters alone. These results suggest that it is valuable to pre-estimate milk, fat and protein production in Italian Brown first lactating cows by means of the analysis of serum ß-LG content during gestation.

  14. The use of algorithms to predict surface seawater dimethyl sulphide concentrations in the SE Pacific, a region of steep gradients in primary productivity, biomass and mixed layer depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. J. Hind

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Dimethyl sulphide (DMS is an important precursor of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN, particularly in the remote marine atmosphere. The SE Pacific is consistently covered with a persistent stratocumulus layer that increases the albedo over this large area. It is not certain whether the source of CCN to these clouds is natural and oceanic or anthropogenic and terrestrial. This unknown currently limits our ability to reliably model either the cloud behaviour or the oceanic heat budget of the region. In order to better constrain the marine source of CCN, it is necessary to have an improved understanding of the sea-air flux of DMS. Of the factors that govern the magnitude of this flux, the greatest unknown is the surface seawater DMS concentration. In the study area, there is a paucity of such data, although previous measurements suggest that the concentration can be substantially variable. In order to overcome such data scarcity, a number of climatologies and algorithms have been devised in the last decade to predict seawater DMS. Here we test some of these in the SE Pacific by comparing predictions with measurements of surface seawater made during the Vamos Ocean-Cloud-Atmosphere-Land Study Regional Experiment (VOCALS-REx in October and November of 2008. We conclude that none of the existing algorithms reproduce local variability in seawater DMS in this region very well. From these findings, we recommend the best algorithm choice for the SE Pacific and suggest lines of investigation for future work.

  15. Time series models for prediction the total and dissolved heavy metals concentration in road runoff and soil solution of roadside embankments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aljoumani, Basem; Kluge, Björn; sanchez, Josep; Wessolek, Gerd

    2017-04-01

    Highways and main roads are potential sources of contamination for the surrounding environment. High traffic rates result in elevated heavy metal concentrations in road runoff, soil and water seepage, which has attracted much attention in the recent past. Prediction of heavy metals transfer near the roadside into deeper soil layers are very important to prevent the groundwater pollution. This study was carried out on data of a number of lysimeters which were installed along the A115 highway (Germany) with a mean daily traffic of 90.000 vehicles per day. Three polyethylene (PE) lysimeters were installed at the A115 highway. They have the following dimensions: length 150 cm, width 100 cm, height 60 cm. The lysimeters were filled with different soil materials, which were recently used for embankment construction in Germany. With the obtained data, we will develop a time series analysis model to predict total and dissolved metal concentration in road runoff and in soil solution of the roadside embankments. The time series consisted of monthly measurements of heavy metals and was transformed to a stationary situation. Subsequently, the transformed data will be used to conduct analyses in the time domain in order to obtain the parameters of a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Four phase approaches for identifying and fitting ARIMA models will be used: identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. An automatic selection criterion, such as the Akaike information criterion, will use to enhance this flexible approach to model building

  16. Maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation of mycophenolic Acid area under the concentration-time curve: is this clinically useful for dosage prediction yet?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Staatz, Christine E; Tett, Susan E

    2011-12-01

    This review seeks to summarize the available data about Bayesian estimation of area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and dosage prediction for mycophenolic acid (MPA) and evaluate whether sufficient evidence is available for routine use of Bayesian dosage prediction in clinical practice. A literature search identified 14 studies that assessed the predictive performance of maximum a posteriori Bayesian estimation of MPA AUC and one report that retrospectively evaluated how closely dosage recommendations based on Bayesian forecasting achieved targeted MPA exposure. Studies to date have mostly been undertaken in renal transplant recipients, with limited investigation in patients treated with MPA for autoimmune disease or haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. All of these studies have involved use of the mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) formulation of MPA, rather than the enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) formulation. Bias associated with estimation of MPA AUC using Bayesian forecasting was generally less than 10%. However some difficulties with imprecision was evident, with values ranging from 4% to 34% (based on estimation involving two or more concentration measurements). Evaluation of whether MPA dosing decisions based on Bayesian forecasting (by the free website service https://pharmaco.chu-limoges.fr) achieved target drug exposure has only been undertaken once. When MMF dosage recommendations were applied by clinicians, a higher proportion (72-80%) of subsequent estimated MPA AUC values were within the 30-60 mg · h/L target range, compared with when dosage recommendations were not followed (only 39-57% within target range). Such findings provide evidence that Bayesian dosage prediction is clinically useful for achieving target MPA AUC. This study, however, was retrospective and focussed only on adult renal transplant recipients. Furthermore, in this study, Bayesian-generated AUC estimations and dosage predictions were not compared

  17. Serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate concentration is not a predictive factor in IVF outcomes before the first cycle of GnRH agonist administration in women with normal ovarian reserve.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Kunicki

    Full Text Available The aim of our study was to determine whether serum dehydroepiandrosterone sulphate (DHEAS concentration and the models incorporating it could help clinicians to predict IVF outcomes in women with normal ovarian reserve undergoing their first long protocol.We performed a retrospective analysis of 459 women undergoing cycles of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI for the first time in a long GnRH agonist protocol.Embryo transfer was performed in 407 women (88.7%. The fertilisation rate was 78.6%. The clinical pregnancy rate was 44.8% per started cycle and 50.6% per embryo transfer. Our univariate model revealed that the best predictors of clinical pregnancy were the number of mature oocytes, the number of embryos transferred and the number of good quality embryos, account for the clinical parameters that reflect ovarian reserve the best being AMH level and AFC. DHEAS did not predict clinical pregnancy (OR 1.001, 95% CI, 0.999-1.004. After adjusting for the number of embryos transferred and class of embryos in a multivariate model, the best predictors were age (OR 0.918, 95% CI, 0.867-0.972 and AFC (OR 1.022, 95% CI, 0.992-1.053. Serum DHEAS levels were positively correlated with AFC (r = 0.098, P<0.039 and testosterone levels (r = 0.371, P<0.001, as well as the number of mature oocytes (r = 0.109, P<0.019; serum DHEAS levels were negatively correlated with age (r = -0.220, P<0.001, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH, (r = -0.116, P<0.015 and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG, (r = -0.193, P<0.001.DHEAS concentration (in addition to the known factors of ovarian reserve does not predict clinical pregnancy in women with normal ovarian reserve who are undergoing ICSI.

  18. Development of multiple linear regression models as predictive tools for fecal indicator concentrations in a stretch of the lower Lahn River, Germany.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrig, Ilona M; Böer, Simone I; Brennholt, Nicole; Manz, Werner

    2015-11-15

    Since rivers are typically subject to rapid changes in microbiological water quality, tools are needed to allow timely water quality assessment. A promising approach is the application of predictive models. In our study, we developed multiple linear regression (MLR) models in order to predict the abundance of the fecal indicator organisms Escherichia coli (EC), intestinal enterococci (IE) and somatic coliphages (SC) in the Lahn River, Germany. The models were developed on the basis of an extensive set of environmental parameters collected during a 12-months monitoring period. Two models were developed for each type of indicator: 1) an extended model including the maximum number of variables significantly explaining variations in indicator abundance and 2) a simplified model reduced to the three most influential explanatory variables, thus obtaining a model which is less resource-intensive with regard to required data. Both approaches have the ability to model multiple sites within one river stretch. The three most important predictive variables in the optimized models for the bacterial indicators were NH4-N, turbidity and global solar irradiance, whereas chlorophyll a content, discharge and NH4-N were reliable model variables for somatic coliphages. Depending on indicator type, the extended mode models also included the additional variables rainfall, O2 content, pH and chlorophyll a. The extended mode models could explain 69% (EC), 74% (IE) and 72% (SC) of the observed variance in fecal indicator concentrations. The optimized models explained the observed variance in fecal indicator concentrations to 65% (EC), 70% (IE) and 68% (SC). Site-specific efficiencies ranged up to 82% (EC) and 81% (IE, SC). Our results suggest that MLR models are a promising tool for a timely water quality assessment in the Lahn area. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Blood gas sample spiking with total parenteral nutrition, lipid emulsion, and concentrated dextrose solutions as a model for predicting sample contamination based on glucose result.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jara-Aguirre, Jose C; Smeets, Steven W; Wockenfus, Amy M; Karon, Brad S

    2018-05-01

    Evaluate the effects of blood gas sample contamination with total parenteral nutrition (TPN)/lipid emulsion and dextrose 50% (D50) solutions on blood gas and electrolyte measurement; and determine whether glucose concentration can predict blood gas sample contamination with TPN/lipid emulsion or D50. Residual lithium heparin arterial blood gas samples were spiked with TPN/lipid emulsion (0 to 15%) and D50 solutions (0 to 2.5%). Blood gas (pH, pCO2, pO2), electrolytes (Na+, K+ ionized calcium) and hemoglobin were measured with a Radiometer ABL90. Glucose concentration was measured in separated plasma by Roche Cobas c501. Chart review of neonatal blood gas results with glucose >300 mg/dL (>16.65 mmol/L) over a seven month period was performed to determine whether repeat (within 4 h) blood gas results suggested pre-analytical errors in blood gas results. Results were used to determine whether a glucose threshold could predict contamination resulting in blood gas and electrolyte results with greater than laboratory-defined allowable error. Samples spiked with 5% or more TPN/lipid emulsion solution or 1% D50 showed glucose concentration >500 mg/dL (>27.75 mmol/L) and produced blood gas (pH, pO 2 , pCO 2 ) results with greater than laboratory-defined allowable error. TPN/lipid emulsion, but not D50, produced greater than allowable error in electrolyte (Na + ,K + ,Ca ++ ,Hb) results at these concentrations. Based on chart review of 144 neonatal blood gas results with glucose >250 mg/dL received over seven months, four of ten neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) patients with glucose results >500 mg/dL and repeat blood gas results within 4 h had results highly suggestive of pre-analytical error. Only 3 of 36 NICU patients with glucose results 300-500 mg/dL and repeat blood gas results within 4 h had clear pre-analytical errors in blood gas results. Glucose concentration can be used as an indicator of significant blood sample contamination with either TPN

  20. Aquatic predicted no-effect concentration for three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and probabilistic ecological risk assessment in Liaodong Bay of the Bohai Sea, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying; Wang, Juying; Mu, Jingli; Wang, Zhen; Yao, Ziwei; Lin, Zhongsheng

    2014-01-01

    Predicted no-effect concentration (PNEC) is often used in ecological risk assessment to determine low-risk concentrations for chemicals. In the present study, native marine species were selected for toxicity testing. The PNECs for three polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), specifically phenanthrene (Phe), pyrene (Pyr), and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP), were derived from chronic and acute toxicity data with log-normal statistical methods. The achieved PNECs for Phe, Pyr, and BaP were 2.33, 1.09, and 0.011 μg/L, respectively. In Jinzhou Bay and the Shuangtaizi River Estuary of Liaodong Bay in the Bohai Sea, China, the surface water concentrations of the three PAHs were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Based on two probabilistic ecological risk assessment (PERA) methods, namely probabilistic risk quotient and joint probability curve, the potential risk of Phe, Pyr, and BaP in Jinzhou Bay and Shuangtaizi River Estuary was assessed. The same order of ecological risk (BaP > Phe > Pyr) was found by both models. Our study considered regional characteristics of marine biota during the calculation of PNECs, and the PERA methods provided probabilities of potential ecological risks of chemicals. Within the study area, further research on BaP is required due to its high potential ecological risk.

  1. A Unified Spatiotemporal Modeling Approach for Predicting Concentrations of Multiple Air Pollutants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olives, Casey; Kim, Sun-Young; Sheppard, Lianne; Sampson, Paul D.; Szpiro, Adam A.; Oron, Assaf P.; Lindström, Johan; Vedal, Sverre; Kaufman, Joel D.

    2014-01-01

    Background: Cohort studies of the relationship between air pollution exposure and chronic health effects require predictions of exposure over long periods of time. Objectives: We developed a unified modeling approach for predicting fine particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, oxides of nitrogen, and black carbon (as measured by light absorption coefficient) in six U.S. metropolitan regions from 1999 through early 2012 as part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). Methods: We obtained monitoring data from regulatory networks and supplemented those data with study-specific measurements collected from MESA Air community locations and participants’ homes. In each region, we applied a spatiotemporal model that included a long-term spatial mean, time trends with spatially varying coefficients, and a spatiotemporal residual. The mean structure was derived from a large set of geographic covariates that was reduced using partial least-squares regression. We estimated time trends from observed time series and used spatial smoothing methods to borrow strength between observations. Results: Prediction accuracy was high for most models, with cross-validation R2 (R2CV) > 0.80 at regulatory and fixed sites for most regions and pollutants. At home sites, overall R2CV ranged from 0.45 to 0.92, and temporally adjusted R2CV ranged from 0.23 to 0.92. Conclusions: This novel spatiotemporal modeling approach provides accurate fine-scale predictions in multiple regions for four pollutants. We have generated participant-specific predictions for MESA Air to investigate health effects of long-term air pollution exposures. These successes highlight modeling advances that can be adopted more widely in modern cohort studies. Citation: Keller JP, Olives C, Kim SY, Sheppard L, Sampson PD, Szpiro AA, Oron AP, Lindström J, Vedal S, Kaufman JD. 2015. A unified spatiotemporal modeling approach for predicting concentrations of multiple air pollutants in the Multi

  2. Virtual HDR CyberKnife SBRT for Localized Prostatic Carcinoma: 5-year Disease-free Survival and Toxicity Observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald Blake Fuller

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available PURPOSEProstate stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT may substantially recapitulate the dose distribution of high-dose-rate (HDR brachytherapy, representing an externally delivered Virtual HDR treatment method. Herein we present 5-year outcomes from a cohort of consecutively treated Virtual HDR SBRT prostate cancer patients.METHODSSeventy-nine patients were treated from 2006 - 2009, 40 low-risk and 39 intermediate-risk, under IRB-approved clinical trial, to 38 Gy in 4 fractions. The planning target volume (PTV included prostate plus a 2-mm volume expansion in all directions, with selective use of a 5-mm prostate-to-PTV expansion and proximal seminal vesicle coverage in intermediate-risk patients, to better cover potential extraprostatic disease; rectal PTV margin reduced to zero in all cases. The prescription dose covered > 95% of the PTV (V100 >= 95%, with a minimum 150% PTV dose escalation to create HDR-like PTV dose distribution.RESULTSMedian pre-SBRT PSA level of 5.6 ng/mL decreased to 0.05 ng/mL 5 years out and 0.02 ng/mL 6 years out. At least one PSA bounce was seen in 55 patients (70% but only 3 of them subsequently relapsed, Biochemical-relapse-free survival was 100% and 92% for low-risk and intermediate-risk patients, respectively, by ASTRO definition (98% and 92% by Phoenix definition. Local relapse did not occur, distant metastasis-free survival was 100% and 95% by risk-group, and disease-specific survival was 100%. Acute and late grade 2 GU toxicity incidence was 10% and 9%, respectively; with 6% late grade 3 GU toxicity. Acute urinary retention did not occur. Acute and late grade 2 GI toxicity was 0% and 1%, respectively, with no grade 3 or higher toxicity. Of patients potent pre-SBRT, 65% remained so at 5 years.CONCLUSIONSVirtual HDR prostate SBRT creates a very low PSA nadir, a high rate of 5-year disease-free survival and an acceptable toxicity incidence, with results closely resembling those reported post-HDR brachytherapy.

  3. Adjuvant IMRT/XELOX radiochemotherapy improves long-term overall- and disease-free survival in advanced gastric cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boda-Heggemann, J.; Schneider, V.; Weiss, C.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: In a retrospective analysis, adjuvant intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) combined with modern chemotherapy improved advanced gastric cancer survival rates compared to a combination of three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) and conventional chemotherapy. We report on the long-term outcomes of two consecutive patient cohorts that were treated with either IMRT and intensive chemotherapy, or 3D-CRT and conventional chemotherapy. Patients and methods: Between 2001 and 2008, 65 consecutive gastric cancer patients received either 3D-CRT (n = 27) or IMRT (n = 38) following tumor resection. Chemotherapy comprised predominantly 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid (5-FU/FA) in the earlier cohort and capecitabine plus oxaliplatin (XELOX) in the latter. The primary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Results: Median OS times were 18 and 43 months in the 3D-CRT and IMRT groups, respectively (p = 0.0602). Actuarial 5-year OS rates were 26 and 47 %, respectively. Within the IMRT group, XELOX gave better results than 5-FU/FA in terms of OS, but this difference was not statistically significant. The primary cause of death in both groups was distant metastasis. Median DFS times were 14 and 35 months in the 3D-CRT and IMRT groups, respectively (p = 0.0693). Actuarial 5-year DFS rates were 22 and 44 %, respectively. Among patients receiving 5-FU/FA, DFS tended to be better in the IMRT group, but this was not statistically significant. A similar analysis for the XELOX group was not possible as 3D-CRT was almost never used to treat these patients. No late toxicity exceeding grade 3 or secondary tumors were observed. Conclusion: After a median follow-up period of over 5 years, OS and DFS were improved in the IMRT/XELOX treated patients compared to the 3D-CRT/5-FU/FA group. Long-term observation revealed no clinical indications of therapy-induced secondary tumors or renal toxicity. (orig.)

  4. High expression of Wee1 is associated with poor disease-free survival in malignant melanoma: potential for targeted therapy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gry Irene Magnussen

    Full Text Available Notoriously resistant malignant melanoma is one of the most increasing forms of cancer worldwide; there is thus a precarious need for new treatment options. The Wee1 kinase is a major regulator of the G(2/M checkpoint, and halts the cell cycle by adding a negative phosphorylation on CDK1 (Tyr15. Additionally, Wee1 has a function in safeguarding the genome integrity during DNA synthesis. To assess the role of Wee1 in development and progression of malignant melanoma we examined its expression in a panel of paraffin-embedded patient derived tissue of benign nevi and primary- and metastatic melanomas, as well as in agarose-embedded cultured melanocytes. We found that Wee1 expression increased in the direction of malignancy, and showed a strong, positive correlation with known biomarkers involved in cell cycle regulation: Cyclin A (p<0.0001, Ki67 (p<0.0001, Cyclin D3 (p = 0.001, p21(Cip1/WAF1 (p = 0.003, p53 (p = 0.025. Furthermore, high Wee1 expression was associated with thicker primary tumors (p = 0.001, ulceration (p = 0.005 and poor disease-free survival (p = 0.008. Transfections using siWee1 in metastatic melanoma cell lines; WM239(WTp53, WM45.1(MUTp53 and LOX(WTp53, further support our hypothesis of a tumor promoting role of Wee1 in melanomas. Whereas no effect was observed in LOX cells, transfection with siWee1 led to accumulation of cells in G(1/S and S phase of the cell cycle in WM239 and WM45.1 cells, respectively. Both latter cell lines displayed DNA damage and induction of apoptosis, in the absence of Wee1, indicating that the effect of silencing Wee1 may not be solely dependent of the p53 status of the cells. Together these results reveal the importance of Wee1 as a prognostic biomarker in melanomas, and indicate a potential role for targeted therapy, alone or in combination with other agents.

  5. Adjuvant IMRT/XELOX radiochemotherapy improves long-term overall- and disease-free survival in advanced gastric cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boda-Heggemann, J.; Schneider, V. [Heidelberg Univ., Universitaetsmedizin Mannheim (Germany). Dept. of Radiation Oncology; Weiss, C. [Heidelberg Univ., Universitaetsmedizin Mannheim (Germany). Dept. of Biomathematics and Medical Statistics] [and others

    2013-05-15

    Purpose: In a retrospective analysis, adjuvant intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) combined with modern chemotherapy improved advanced gastric cancer survival rates compared to a combination of three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) and conventional chemotherapy. We report on the long-term outcomes of two consecutive patient cohorts that were treated with either IMRT and intensive chemotherapy, or 3D-CRT and conventional chemotherapy. Patients and methods: Between 2001 and 2008, 65 consecutive gastric cancer patients received either 3D-CRT (n = 27) or IMRT (n = 38) following tumor resection. Chemotherapy comprised predominantly 5-fluorouracil/folinic acid (5-FU/FA) in the earlier cohort and capecitabine plus oxaliplatin (XELOX) in the latter. The primary endpoints were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Results: Median OS times were 18 and 43 months in the 3D-CRT and IMRT groups, respectively (p = 0.0602). Actuarial 5-year OS rates were 26 and 47 %, respectively. Within the IMRT group, XELOX gave better results than 5-FU/FA in terms of OS, but this difference was not statistically significant. The primary cause of death in both groups was distant metastasis. Median DFS times were 14 and 35 months in the 3D-CRT and IMRT groups, respectively (p = 0.0693). Actuarial 5-year DFS rates were 22 and 44 %, respectively. Among patients receiving 5-FU/FA, DFS tended to be better in the IMRT group, but this was not statistically significant. A similar analysis for the XELOX group was not possible as 3D-CRT was almost never used to treat these patients. No late toxicity exceeding grade 3 or secondary tumors were observed. Conclusion: After a median follow-up period of over 5 years, OS and DFS were improved in the IMRT/XELOX treated patients compared to the 3D-CRT/5-FU/FA group. Long-term observation revealed no clinical indications of therapy-induced secondary tumors or renal toxicity. (orig.)

  6. Differences in clinical characteristics and disease-free survival for Latino, African American, and non-Latino White men with localized prostate cancer: Data from CaPSURE™

    OpenAIRE

    Latini, DM; Elkin, EP; Cooperberg, MR; Sadetsky, N; DuChane, J; Carroll, PR

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND. Few studies of ethnicity and prostate cancer have included Latino men in analyses of baseline clinical characteristics, treatment selection, and disease-free survival (DFS). The present study examines the impact of Latino ethnicity on these parameters in a large, multiinstitutional database of men with prostate cancer. METHODS. We compared baseline disease characteristics and clinical outcomes for Latino (N = 138), non-Latino White (NLW, N = 5619), and African-American (AA, N = 60...

  7. Thermodynamic data for predicting concentrations of Th(IV), U(IV), Np(IV), and Pu(IV) in geologic environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rai, Dhanpat; Roa, Linfeng; Weger, H.T.; Felmy, A.R. [Battelle, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) (United States); Choppin, G.R. [Florida State University (United States); Yui, Mikazu [Waste Isolation Research Division, Tokai Works, Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1999-01-01

    This report provides thermodynamic data for predicting concentrations of Th(IV), U(IV), Np(IV), and Pu(IV) in geologic environments, and contributes to an integration of the JNC chemical thermodynamic database, JNC-TDB (previously PNC-TDB), for the performance analysis of geological isolation system for high-level radioactive wastes. Thermodynamic data for the formation of complexes or compounds with hydroxide, chloride, fluoride, carbonate, nitrate, sulfate and phosphate are discussed in this report. Where data for specific actinide(IV) species was lacking, the data were selected based on chemical analogy to other tetravalent actinides. In this study, the Pitzer ion-interaction model is used to extrapolate thermodynamic constants to zero ionic strength at 25degC. (author)

  8. Dietary patterns predict changes in two-hour post-oral glucose tolerance test plasma glucose concentrations in middle-aged adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lau, Cathrine; Toft, Ulla; Tetens, Inge; Carstensen, Bendix; Jørgensen, Torben; Pedersen, Oluf; Borch-Johnsen, Knut

    2009-03-01

    We examined whether the adherence to major dietary patterns at baseline of 5824 nondiabetic Danes (30-60 y) enrolled in the nonpharmacological Inter99 intervention predicted changes in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and postchallenge 2-h plasma glucose (2h-PG) concentrations during a 5 y period and whether a potential association was dependent on baseline glucose tolerance status. Through principal component analysis, a score for a traditional dietary pattern (characterized by higher intakes of high-fat sandwich spreads, red meat, potatoes, butter and lard, low-fat fish, sandwich meat, and sauces) and a score for a modern dietary pattern (characterized by higher intakes of vegetables, fruit, vegetable oil/vinegar dressing, poultry, pasta, rice, and cereals) were estimated for each person at baseline. Random effect models adjusting for relevant confounders were used to estimate changes in repetitive measures of FPG and 2h-PG. A higher modern score (of 1 SD) predicted an annual decrease in 2h-PG of 0.015 mmol/L (P dressing, poultry, pasta, rice, and cereals.

  9. Comparison of Thermodynamic Predictions and Experimental Observations on B Additions in Powder-Processed Ni-Based Superalloys Containing Elevated Concentrations of Nb

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antonov, Stoichko; Huo, Jiajie; Feng, Qiang; Isheim, Dieter; Seidman, David N.; Sun, Eugene; Tin, Sammy

    2018-03-01

    Boron additions to Ni-based superalloys are considered to be beneficial to the creep properties of the alloy, as boron has often been reported to increase grain boundary cohesion, increase ductility, and promote the formation of stable boride phases. Despite the importance, it is not well understood whether these improvements are associated with the presence of elemental boron or stable borides along the grain boundaries. In this investigation, two experimental powder-processed Ni-based superalloys containing elevated levels of Nb were found to exhibit increased solubility for B in the γ matrix when compared to similar commercial Ni-based superalloys. This resulted in an overall lower B concentration at grain boundaries that suppressed boride formation. As the predictive capability of CALPHAD database models for Ni-based superalloys have improved over the years, some discrepancies may still persist around compositionally heterogeneous features such as grain boundaries. Improved quantification of the characteristic partitioning of B as a function of the bulk alloy composition is required for understanding and predicting the stability of borides.

  10. Can insoluble polysaccharide concentration in dental plaque, sugar exposure and cariogenic microorganisms predict early childhood caries? A follow-up study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parisotto, T M; Stipp, R; Rodrigues, L K A; Mattos-Graner, R O; Costa, L S; Nobre-Dos-Santos, M

    2015-08-01

    Insoluble polysaccharide (IP) has been associated with caries prevalence in young children. However, the power of IP to predict ECC needs to be demonstrated. To assess the relationships between early childhood caries (ECC) and extracellular insoluble polysaccharides (IP) in dental plaque, sugar exposure and cariogenic microorganisms. Visible plaque on maxillary incisors was recorded, followed by caries diagnosis in 65 preschoolers (3-4 years) at baseline and after 1 year. Plaque was collected for mutans streptococci (MS), total microorganism (TM) and lactobacilli (LB) enumerations in selective media, as well as for IP analysis, which was later assessed by colorimetry. Sugar/sucrose exposure was assessed by a diet chart. Positive correlations were found among the prevalence of caries and MS, TM, LB, solid sucrose and visible dental plaque. Additionally, children with IP concentrations in dental plaque higher than 2.36 μg/mg (odds ratio-OR=6.8), with visible plaque on maxillary incisors (OR=4.3), harbouring LB (OR=13) and exposed to solid sugar more than twice/day (OR=5) showed higher risk of developing caries (pdental plaque and cariogenic microorganisms could predict caries development, partially explaining the ECC pattern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Operational strategy for soil concentration predictions of strontium/yttrium-90 and cesium-137 in surface soil at the West Valley Demonstration Project site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Myers, J.A.

    1995-01-01

    There are difficulties associated with the assessment of the interpretation of field measurements, determination of guideline protocols and control and disposal of low level radioactive contaminated soil in the environmental health physics field. Questions are raised among scientists and in public forums concerning the necessity and high costs of large area soil remediation versus the risks of low-dose radiation health effects. As a result, accurate soil activity assessments become imperative in decontamination situations. The West Valley Demonstration Project (WVDP), a US Department of Energy facility located in West Valley, New York is managed and operated by West Valley Nuclear Services Co., Inc. (WVNS). WVNS has identified contaminated on-site soil areas with a mixed variety of radionuclides (primarily fission product). Through the use of data obtained from a previous project performed during the summer of 1994 entitled ''Field Survey Correlation and Instrumentation Response for an In Situ Soil Measurement Program'' (Myers), the WVDP offers a unique research opportunity to investigate the possibility of soil concentration predictions based on exposure or count rate responses returned from a survey detector probe. In this study, correlations are developed between laboratory measured soil beta activity and survey probe response for the purposes of determining the optimal detector for field use and using these correlations to establish predictability of soil activity levels

  12. Prediction of purine derivatives, creatinine and total nitrogen concentrations in urine by FT-Near-lnfrared Reflectance spectroscopy (FT-NIR)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Susmel, P.; Piani, B.; Toso, B.; Stefanon, B.

    2004-01-01

    The objective of this study was to provide an alternative method for the determination of purine derivatives (PD, which include allantoin, uric acid, hypoxanthine and xanthine), creatinine and total nitrogen (N) concentrations in urine. About 180 urine samples from cattle, buffaloes and rabbit were collected and analyzed for PD by HPLC, creatinine by spectrophotometry and N by Kjeldahl method. The urine samples were then analyzed by Fourier Transformed Near Infrared Reflectance Spectroscopy (FT-NIR) to find conformity between this technique and the HPLC and colorimetric methods. FT-NIR can predict allantoin, uric acid, hypoxanthine, xanthine, creatinine, total N and sum of N in both allantoin and uric acid with a satisfactory level of accuracy: the determination coefficient (r 2 ) of validation ranged from 0.888% for uric acid to 0.982% for total N. The coefficients of determination for allantoin, creatinine and sum of N in both allantoin and uric acid were 0.92, 0.894 and 0.90%, respectively. Hypoxanthine and xanthine in urine samples were not detectable by NIRS, probably because of their low concentrations, and therefore they were not considered for instrumental calibration. (author)

  13. The influence of land-use and land-management on Soil Organic Carbon concentrations: Limitations of making predictions using only soil order data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, M. J.; Worrall, F.

    2009-04-01

    In light of recent concern over the extent of global warming and the role of soil carbon as a potential store of atmospheric carbon, there is increasing demand for regions to estimate their current soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks with the greatest possible accuracy. Several previous attempts at calculating SOC baselines at global, national or regional scale have used mean values for soil orders and multiplied these values by the mapped areas of the soils they represent. Other methods have approached the task from a land cover point of view, making estimates using only land-use, or soil order/land-use combinations and others have included variables such as altitude, climate and soil texture. This study aimed to assess the major controls on SOC concentrations (%SOC) at the National Trust Wallington estate in Northumberland, NE England (area = 55km2) where an extensive soil sampling campaign was used to test what level of accuracy could be achieved in modelling the %SOC values on the Estate. Mapped %SOC values were compared to the values predicted from The National Soils Resources Institute (NSRI) representative soil profile data for major soil group, soil series and land-use corrected soil series values, as well as land-use/major soil group combinations from the Countryside Survey database. The results of this study can be summarised as follows: When only soil series or land-use were used as predictors only 48% and 44% of the variation in the dataset were explained. When soil series/land-use combinations were used explanatory power increased to 57% both altitude and soil pH are major controls on %SOC and including these variables gave an improvement to 59% A further improvement from 59% to 66% in the ability to predict %SOC levels at point locations when farm tenancy was included indicates that differences in land-management practices between farm tenancies explained more of the variation than either soil series or land-use in %SOC. Further work will involve a

  14. Application of dimensionless sediment rating curves to predict suspended-sediment concentrations, bedload, and annual sediment loads for rivers in Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellison, Christopher A.; Groten, Joel T.; Lorenz, David L.; Koller, Karl S.

    2016-10-27

    Consistent and reliable sediment data are needed by Federal, State, and local government agencies responsible for monitoring water quality, planning river restoration, quantifying sediment budgets, and evaluating the effectiveness of sediment reduction strategies. Heightened concerns about excessive sediment in rivers and the challenge to reduce costs and eliminate data gaps has guided Federal and State interests in pursuing alternative methods for measuring suspended and bedload sediment. Simple and dependable data collection and estimation techniques are needed to generate hydraulic and water-quality information for areas where data are unavailable or difficult to collect.The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, completed a study to evaluate the use of dimensionless sediment rating curves (DSRCs) to accurately predict suspended-sediment concentrations (SSCs), bedload, and annual sediment loads for selected rivers and streams in Minnesota based on data collected during 2007 through 2013. This study included the application of DSRC models developed for a small group of streams located in the San Juan River Basin near Pagosa Springs in southwestern Colorado to rivers in Minnesota. Regionally based DSRC models for Minnesota also were developed and compared to DSRC models from Pagosa Springs, Colorado, to evaluate which model provided more accurate predictions of SSCs and bedload in Minnesota.Multiple measures of goodness-of-fit were developed to assess the effectiveness of DSRC models in predicting SSC and bedload for rivers in Minnesota. More than 600 dimensionless ratio values of SSC, bedload, and streamflow were evaluated and delineated according to Pfankuch stream stability categories of “good/fair” and “poor” to develop four Minnesota-based DSRC models. The basis for Pagosa Springs and Minnesota DSRC model effectiveness was founded on measures of goodness

  15. Magnetic resonance imaging in breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy: radiologic-pathologic correlation of the response and disease-free survival depending on molecular subtype.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cruz Ciria, S; Jiménez Aragón, F; García Mur, C; Esteban Cuesta, H; Gros Bañeres, B

    2014-01-01

    To evaluate the radiologic and pathologic responses to neoadjuvant chemotherapy and their correlation in the molecular subtypes of breast cancer and to analyze their impact in disease-free survival. We included 205 patients with breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy. We evaluated the radiologic response by comparing MRI images acquired before and after chemotherapy. The pathologic response was classified on the Miller and Payne scale. For each subtype (HER2+, TN, luminal A, luminal B HER2-, and luminal B HER2+), we used the χ(2) test, Student's t-test, ANOVA, and Kendall's Tau-b to evaluate the radiologic response and the pathologic response, the radiologic-pathologic correlation, and the disease-free survival. The subtypes HER2+ (62.1%) and TN (45.2%) had higher rates of complete radiologic response. The pathologic response was 65.5% in the HER2+ subtype, 38.1% in the TN subtype, 2.6% in the luminal A subtype, 8.2% in the luminal B HER2- subtype, and 31% in the luminal B HER2+ subtype. The rate of radiologic-pathologic correlation was significant in all subtypes, higher in TN and HER2 (Tau-b coefficients 0.805 and 0.717, respectively). Disease-free survival was higher in HER2+ (91.9±3.3 months) and lower in TN (69.5±6.3 months), with significant differences between the cases with poor and good radiologic responses (P=.040). Survival was greater in cases with good radiologic response, except in cases with luminal A subtype. MRI can be a useful tool that provides information about the evolution of breast cancer treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy, which varies with the immunohistochemical subtype. Copyright © 2012 SERAM. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  16. Increased tumour ascorbate is associated with extended disease-free survival and decreased hypoxia-inducible factor-1 activation in human colorectal cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caroline eKuiper

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Ascorbate is a co-factor for the hydroxylases that regulate the transcription factor hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF-1, which provides cancer cells with a metabolic and survival advantage in the hypoxic environment of solid tumors. However, whether ascorbate affects tumor development is a highly debated issue. We aimed to determine whether tumor ascorbate was associated with HIF-1 activation and patient disease-free survival. In this study we undertook a retrospective observational analysis of tissue-banked tumor and paired normal tissue from 49 colorectal cancer patients, measuring ascorbate levels, HIF-1α and its downstream gene products BNIP3 and VEGF. Patient survival was monitored for the first six years after surgery. We found that ascorbate levels were lower in tumor tissue compared to normal tissue (p< 0.001 but overall levels varied considerably. HIF-1α, VEGF and BNIP3 were elevated in tumor samples (p< 0.01. There was an inverse relationship between tumor ascorbate content and HIF-1 pathway activation (p=0.002 and tumor size (p=0.018. Higher tumor ascorbate content was associated with significantly improved disease-free survival in the first 6 years after surgery (p=0.006, with 141 - 1,094 additional disease free days. This was independent of tumor grade and stage. Survival advantage was associated with the amount of ascorbate in the tumor, but not with the amount in adjacent normal tissue. Our results demonstrate that higher tumor ascorbate content is associated decreased HIF-1 activation, most likely due to the co-factor activity of ascorbate for the regulatory HIF hydroxylases. Our findings support the need for future studies to determine whether raising tumor ascorbate is possible with clinical intervention and whether this results in modification of hydroxylase-dependent pathways in the tumor.

  17. Ultrasound-guided diffuse optical tomography (DOT) of invasive breast carcinoma: Does tumour total haemoglobin concentration contribute to the prediction of axillary lymph node status?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Qingli, E-mail: qinglizhu@gmail.com [Department of Diagnostic Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shuaifuyuan 1, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100730 (China); Xiao, Mengsu, E-mail: xiaomengsu_2000@sina.com [Department of Diagnostic Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shuaifuyuan 1, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100730 (China); You, Shanshan, E-mail: shanshan_0531@sina.com [Department of Diagnostic Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shuaifuyuan 1, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100730 (China); Zhang, Jing, E-mail: zhang.jing1029@163.com [Department of Diagnostic Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shuaifuyuan 1, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100730 (China); Jiang, Yuxin, E-mail: yuxinjiangxh@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Diagnostic Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shuaifuyuan 1, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100730 (China); Lai, Xingjian, E-mail: lxjpumch@yahoo.com.cn [Department of Diagnostic Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shuaifuyuan 1, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100730 (China); Dai, Qing, E-mail: qingdai_2000@yahoo.com [Department of Diagnostic Ultrasound, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Shuaifuyuan 1, Dongcheng District, Beijing 100730 (China)

    2012-11-15

    Objectives: To prospectively study the ultrasound-guided near-infrared diffuse optical tomography (DOT) findings of the total haemoglobin concentration (THC) detected in invasive breast carcinomas and its contribution to the prediction of axillary lymph node (LN) status. Methods: A total of 195 invasive breast carcinomas were prospectively studied with DOT before surgery. Lumpectomy or mastectomy with full axillary nodal dissection was performed. Tumour size and THC level were correlated with LN status by a logistic regression analysis. Results: One hundred twenty-four patients (63.59%) was LN(-) and 71 (36.41%) was LN(+). The average THC was significantly higher in the LN(+) group than in the LN(-) group (252.94 {+-} 69.19 {mu}mol/L versus 203.86 {+-} 83.13 {mu}mol/L, P = 0.01). A multivariate analysis showed an independent relationship between the probability of axillary metastasis, elevated THC level (P = 0.01), and tumour size (P = 0.001). The odds ratio with THC {>=} 140 {mu}mol/L was 13.651 (1.781-104.560), whereas that of tumour size with a 1 cm increment was only 1.777 (1.283-2.246). Conclusions: The THC level and the tumour size are independent and preoperative predictors of axillary nodal status; these variables may improve the diagnosis of patients with lymph node metastasis.

  18. Nitrate and Moisture Content of Broad Permafrost Landscape Features in the Barrow Peninsula: Predicting Evolving NO3 Concentrations in a Changing Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arendt, C. A.; Heikoop, J. M.; Newman, B. D.; Wales, N. A.; McCaully, R. E.; Wilson, C. J.; Wullschleger, S.

    2017-12-01

    The geochemical evolution of Arctic regions as permafrost degrades, significantly impacts nutrient availability. The release of nitrogen compounds from permafrost degradation fertilizes both microbial decomposition and plant productivity. Arctic warming promotes permafrost degradation, causing geomorphic and hydrologic transitions that have the potential to convert saturated zones to unsaturated zones and subsequently alter the nitrate production capacity of permafrost regions. Changes in Nitrate (NO3-) content associated with shifting moisture regimes are a primary factor determining Arctic fertilization and subsequent primary productivity, and have direct feedbacks to carbon cycling. We have documented a broad survey of co-located soil moisture and nitrate concentration measurements in shallow active layer regions across a variety of topographic features in the expansive continuous permafrost region encompassing the Barrow Peninsula of Alaska. Topographic features of interest are slightly higher relative to surrounding landscapes with drier soils and elevated nitrate, including the rims of low centered polygons, the centers of flat and high centered polygons, the rims of young, old and ancient drain thaw lake basins and drainage slopes that exist across the landscape. With this information, we model the nitrate inventory of the Barrow Peninsula using multiple geospatial approaches to estimate total area cover by unsaturated features of interest and further predict how various drying scenarios increase the magnitude of nitrate produced in degrading permafrost regions across the Arctic. This work is supported by the US Department of Energy Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment, NGEE-Arctic.

  19. Predicting acute and chronic effects of wood preservative products in Daphnia magna and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata based on the concept of concentration addition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coors, Anja; Weisbrod, Barbara; Schoknecht, Ute; Sacher, Frank; Kehrer, Anja

    2014-02-01

    The current European legislation requires that combined effects of the active substances and any substance of concern contained in biocidal products are taken into account in environmental risk assessment. The hypothesis whether the consideration of active substances together with all formulation additives that are labeled as presenting an environmental hazard is sufficient for a reliable environmental risk assessment was tested in the present study by investigating 3 wood preservative products. Relevant single substances in the products, some of their generic mixtures, the biocidal products themselves, and aqueous eluates prepared from the products (representing potential environmental mixtures) were tested for effects on algal growth and Daphnia acute immobilization as well as reproduction. Predictions for the products and the eluates were based on the concept of concentration addition and were mostly found to provide reliable or at least protective estimates for the observed acute and chronic toxicity of the mixtures. The mixture toxicity considerations also indicated that the toxicity of each product was dominated by just 1 of the components, and that assessments based only on the dominating substance would be similarly protective as a full-mixture risk assessment. Yet, there remained uncertainty in some cases that could be related to the toxicity of transformation products, the impact of unidentified formulation additives, or synergistic interaction between active substances and formulation additives. © 2013 SETAC.

  20. Comparative assessment of passive surveillance in disease-free and endemic situation: Example of Brucella melitensis surveillance in Switzerland and in Bosnia and Herzegovina

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haracic Sabina

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Globalization and subsequent growth in international trade in animals and animal products has increased the importance of international disease reporting. Efficient and reliable surveillance systems are needed in order to document the disease status of a population at a given time. In this context, passive surveillance plays an important role in early warning systems. However, it is not yet routinely integrated in the assessment of disease surveillance systems because different factors like the disease awareness (DA of people reporting suspect cases influence the detection performance of passive surveillance. In this paper, we used scenario tree methodology in order to evaluate and compare the quality and benefit of abortion testing (ABT for Brucella melitensis (Bm between the disease free situation in Switzerland (CH and a hypothetical disease free situation in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BH, taking into account DA levels assumed for the current endemic situation in BH. Results The structure and input parameters of the scenario tree were identical for CH and BH with the exception of population data in small ruminants and the DA in farmers and veterinarians. The sensitivity analysis of the stochastic scenario tree model showed that the small ruminant population structure and the DA of farmers were important influential parameters with regard to the unit sensitivity of ABT in both CH and BH. The DA of both farmers and veterinarians was assumed to be higher in BH than in CH due to the current endemic situation in BH. Although the same DA cannot necessarily be assumed for the modelled hypothetical disease free situation as for the actual endemic situation, it shows the importance of the higher vigilance of people reporting suspect cases on the probability that an average unit processed in the ABT-component would test positive. Conclusion The actual sensitivity of passive surveillance approaches heavily depends on the context in

  1. Disease-free survival assessment by artificial neural networks for hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiueng-Fang Wu

    2017-10-01

    Conclusion: This study revealed that the proposed artificial neural network models constructed with 15 clinical HCC relevant features could achieve an acceptable prediction performance for DFS. Such models can support clinical physicians to deal with clinical decision-making processes on the prognosis of HCC patients receiving RFA treatments.

  2. Impact of "Killer Immunoglobulin-Like Receptor /Ligand" Genotypes on Outcome following Surgery among Patients with Colorectal Cancer: Activating KIRs Are Associated with Long-Term Disease Free Survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kemal Beksac

    Full Text Available Approximately 30% of patients with stage II/III colorectal cancer develop recurrence following surgery. How individual regulation of host mediated anti-tumor cytotoxicity is modified by the killer-cell immunoglobulin-like receptor (KIRs genotype is essential for prediction of outcome. We analyzed the frequency of KIR and KIR ligand Human Leukocyte Antigen Class I genotypes, and their effects on recurrence and disease-free survival (DFS. Out of randomly selected 87 colorectal cancer patients who underwent R0 resection operations between 2005 and 2008, 29 patients whose cancers progressed within a median five-year follow-up period were compared with 58 patients with no recurrence within the same time period. Recurrent cases shared similar tumor stages with non-recurrent cases, but had different localizations. We used DNA isolated from pathological archival lymphoid and tumor tissues for KIR and KIR ligand (HLA-C, group C1, group C2, and HLA-A-Bw4 genotyping. Among cases with recurrence, KIR2DL1 (inhibitory KIR and A-Bw4 (ligand for inhibitory KIR3DL1 were observed more frequently (p=0.017 and p=0.024; and KIR2DS2 and KIR2DS3 (both activating KIRs were observed less frequently (p=0.005 and p=0.043. Similarly, in the non-recurrent group, inhibitory KIR-ligand combinations 2DL1-C2 and 2DL3-C1 were less frequent, while the activating combination 2DS2-C1 was more frequent. The lack of KIR2DL1, 2DL1-C2, and 2DL3-C1 improved disease-free survival (DFS (100% vs. 62.3%, p=0.05; 93.8% vs. 60.0%, p=0.035; 73.6% vs. 55.9%, p=0.07. The presence of KIR2DS2, 2DS3, and 2DS2-C1 improved DFS (77.8% vs. 48.5%, p=0.01; 79.4% vs. 58.5%, p=0.003; 76.9% vs. 51.4%, p=0.023. KIR2DS3 reduced the risk of recurrence (HR=0.263, 95% CI = 0.080-0.863, p=0.028. The number of activating KIRs are correlated strongly with DFS, none/ one/ two KIR : 54/77/98 months (p=0.004. In conclusion the inheritance of increasing numbers of activating KIRs and lack of inhibitory KIRs

  3. Lymphocyte counts and responses to PHA and PPD following radiation therapy for breast cancer in patients who develop recurrent disease and those who remain clinically disease-free

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blomgren, H.; Wasserman, J.; Wallgren, A.; Baral, E.; Petrini, B.; Idestroem, K.

    1980-01-01

    Peripheral blood lymphocyte counts and stimulations by PHA and PPD in vitro were examined before and up to four years after local pre- or post-operative radiation therapy of 99 patients with breast cancer. The patient material was divided into those who remained clinically disease-free during a follow up period of 4.5-7 years and those who relapsed. Radiation therapy reduced the lymphocyte counts and PPD response to the same levels in both groups of patients; there were no essential differences in their recoveries, with the exception of a somewhat delayed recovery of the PPD-response in the patients who relapsed. PHA responses of the lymphocytes were not decreased following radiation therapy. The data indicate that these radiation induced changes of the peripheral lymphocyte population were similar both in patients who relapsed and those who remained symptom free. A group of 47 women with breast cancer that was treated by surgery only was examined similarly as a comparison. Patients from this group who developed local recurrences had higher lymphocyte counts than those who remained disease-free; patients who developed distant metastases had somewhat decreased PHA responses

  4. Water Quality, Cyanobacteria, and Environmental Factors and Their Relations to Microcystin Concentrations for Use in Predictive Models at Ohio Lake Erie and Inland Lake Recreational Sites, 2013-14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Francy, Donna S.; Graham, Jennifer L.; Stelzer, Erin A.; Ecker, Christopher D.; Brady, Amie M. G.; Pam Struffolino,; Loftin, Keith A.

    2015-11-06

    Harmful cyanobacterial “algal” blooms (cyanoHABs) and associated toxins, such as microcystin, are a major water-quality issue for Lake Erie and inland lakes in Ohio. Predicting when and where a bloom may occur is important to protect the public that uses and consumes a water resource; however, predictions are complicated and likely site specific because of the many factors affecting toxin production. Monitoring for a variety of environmental and water-quality factors, for concentrations of cyanobacteria by molecular methods, and for algal pigments such as chlorophyll and phycocyanin by using optical sensors may provide data that can be used to predict the occurrence of cyanoHABs.

  5. Study of the time course of the clinical effect of propofol compared with the time course of the predicted effect-site concentration : performance of three pharmacokinetic-dynamic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Coppens, M.; Van Limmen, J. G. M.; Schnider, T.; Wyler, B.; Bonte, S.; Dewaele, F.; Struys, M. M. R. F.; Vereecke, H. E. M.

    In the ideal pharmacokinetic-dynamic (PK-PD) model for calculating the predicted effect-site concentration of propofol (Ce(PROP)), for any Ce(PROP), the corresponding hypnotic effect should be constant. We compared three PK-PD models (Marsh PK with Shuttler PD, Schnider PK with fixed ke0, and

  6. Treatment Adherence and Its Impact on Disease-Free Survival in the Breast International Group 1-98 Trial of Tamoxifen and Letrozole, Alone and in Sequence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chirgwin, Jacquie H; Giobbie-Hurder, Anita; Coates, Alan S

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE: To investigate adherence to endocrine treatment and its relationship with disease-free survival (DFS) in the Breast International Group (BIG) 1-98 clinical trial. METHODS: The BIG 1-98 trial is a double-blind trial that randomly assigned 6,193 postmenopausal women with hormone receptor......-positive early breast cancer in the four-arm option to 5 years of tamoxifen (Tam), letrozole (Let), or the agents in sequence (Let-Tam, Tam-Let). This analysis included 6,144 women who received at least one dose of study treatment. Conditional landmark analyses and marginal structural Cox proportional hazards......). Sequential treatments were associated with higher rates of nonpersistence (Tam-Let, 20.8%; Let-Tam, 20.3%; Tam 16.9%; Let 17.6%). Adverse events were the reason for most trial treatment early discontinuations (82.7%). Apart from sequential treatment assignment, reduced adherence was associated with older age...

  7. Association between obesity with disease-free survival and overall survival in triple-negative breast cancer: A meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mei, Lin; He, Lin; Song, Yuhua; Lv, Yang; Zhang, Lijiu; Hao, Fengxi; Xu, Mengmeng

    2018-05-01

    To investigate the relationship between obesity and disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) of triple-negative breast cancer. Citations were searched in PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science. Random effect model meta-analysis was conducted by using Revman software version 5.0, and publication bias was evaluated by creating Egger regression with STATA software version 12. Nine studies (4412 patients) were included for DFS meta-analysis, 8 studies (4392 patients) include for OS meta-analysis. There were no statistical significances between obesity with DFS (P = .60) and OS (P = .71) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) patients. Obesity has no impact on DFS and OS in patients with TNBC.

  8. Association of CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 polymorphisms and disease-free survival of Thai post-menopausal breast cancer patients who received adjuvant tamoxifen

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chamnanphon M

    2013-05-01

    .90%, and *36 (1 of 114, 0.90%; the CYP2C19 variant alleles were *2 (27 of 114, 23.70% and *3 (6 of 114, 5.30%. Kaplan–Meier estimates showed significantly shorter disease-free survival in patients with homozygous TT when compared to those with heterozygous CT or homozygous CC at nucleotides 100C>T and 1039C>T (CYP2D6*10 post-menopausal (log-rank test; P = 0.046. They also had increased risk of recurrence, but no statistically significant association was observed (hazard ratio 3.48; 95% confidence interval 0.86–14.07; P = 0.080.Conclusion: The CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 polymorphisms were not involved in tamoxifen efficacy. However, in the subgroup of post-menopausal women, the polymorphisms in CYP2D6 and CYP2C19 might be useful in predicting tamoxifen efficacy and clinical outcomes in breast cancer patients receiving adjuvant tamoxifen treatment. As the number of breast cancer patients was relatively small in this study, results should be confirmed in a larger group of prospective patients.Keywords: CYP2D6, CYP2C19, disease-free survival, tamoxifen, pharmacogenetics, breast cancer

  9. Serum creatinine and creatinine clearance for predicting plasma methotrexate concentrations after high-dose methotrexate chemotherapy for the treatment for childhood lymphoblastic malignancies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Wei-qun; Zhang, Ling-yan; Chen, Xue-ying; Pan, Bin-hua; Mao, Jun-qing; Song, Hua; Li, Jing-yuang; Tang, Yong-min

    2014-01-01

    Monitoring of plasma methotrexate (MTX) concentrations allows for therapeutic adjustments in treating childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) or non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) with high-dose MTX (HDMTX). We tested the hypothesis that assessment of creatinine clearance (CrCl) and/or serum Cr may be a suitable means of monitoring plasma MTX concentrations. All children in the study had ALL or NHL, were in complete remission, and received HDMTX (3 or 5 g/m(2))+leucovorin. Plasma MTX concentrations were measured at 24, 48, and 96 h. CrCl was determined at 24 and 48 h. Correlations between 24- and 48-h plasma MTX concentrations and CrCl and serum Cr concentrations were determined. CrCl and serum Cr concentrations were compared over time between children who had delayed and non-delayed MTX elimination. A total of 105 children were included. There were significant negative correlations between CrCl at 24 and 48 h and plasma MTX concentrations at 24 (both p < 0.001) and 48 h (both p < 0.001). There were significant positive correlations between serum Cr concentrations at both 24 and 48 h and plasma MTX concentrations at 24 (both p < 0.001) and 48 h (both p < 0.001). There were 88 (30.2 %) instances of elimination delay. Children with elimination delay had significantly lower CrCl and higher Cr concentrations at 24 and 48 h compared with children without elimination delay (all p < 0.05). Our findings suggest that, with further refinement, assessment of renal function may be a useful means of monitoring plasma MTX concentrations during HDMTX for ALL and NHL.

  10. ["That flesh, pink and perishable": analysis of disease-free survival analysis in breast cancer in Gipuzkoa (Spain) in the presence of competing risks].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Camblor, Pablo; Larrañaga, Nerea; Sarasqueta, Cristina; Mitxelena, María José; Basterretxea, Mikel

    2009-01-01

    To analyze time of disease-free survival and relative survival in women diagnosed with breast cancer in the province of Gipuzkoa within the context of competing risks by assessing differences between the direct use of the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the multiple decrement method on the one hand, and relative survival on the other. All registered breast cancer cases in Gipuzkoa in 1995 and 1996 with stages other than stage IV were included. An 8-year follow-up for recurrence and a 10-year follow-up for survival were performed. Time of disease-free survival was studied by the multiple decrement model. Observed survival and survival corrected by the expected mortality in the population (relative survival) were also studied. Estimation of the probability of recurrence at 8 years with the multiple decrement method was 8.8% lower than that obtained with the Kaplan-Meier method. The difference between the observed and relative survival rates at 10 years was 10.8%. Both results show how, in this case, the Kaplan-Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality from the disease. Two issues are often overlooked when performing survival analyses: firstly, because of the lack of independence between survival time and censoring time, the results obtained by the Kaplan-Meier estimator are uninterpretable; secondly, it is an incontrovertible fact that one way or another, everyone causes failures. In this approach, survival analyses must take into account the probability of failure in the general population of reference. The results obtained in this study show that superficial use of the Kaplan Meier estimator overestimates both the probability of recurrence and that of mortality caused by the disease.

  11. Nutritional and food protection against epidemic emerging neuropathy. Epidemiological findings in the unique disease-free urban area of Cuba.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnouin, J; Verdura Barrios, T; Chassagne, M; Pérez Cristiá, R; Arnaud, J; Fleites Mestre, P; Montoya, M E; Favier, A

    2001-09-01

    A survey was conducted through the SECUBA (SEguridad alimentaria en CUba y Buena Alimentación) research program in Cuban healthy smokers living in Guantánamo and in Havana. The aim of the survey was to investigate biological and nutritional factors connected with the occurrence of zero epidemic neuropathy (EN) observed in Guantánamo urban area since the disease emerged in Cuba. Blood riboflavin status and carotenoid and selenium concentrations were higher in Guantánamo than in Havana smokers. Food dietary quantities of plantain banana, pepper (Capsicum spp.), bovine meat and milk products were higher in Guantánamo. Inversely, foods rich in cholesterol, especially eggs, were more consumed in Havana. Through riboflavin, carotenoid and selenium contents and specific antioxidants substances (indoleamines, capsaicin), the foods more consumed in Guantánamo could be considered as EN protective factors. Disease protective effects could be exerted via enhancement of defence mechanisms against free radical damage and related mechanisms focused on redox recycling of glutathione and local protection from carotenoids. Finally, the results of the present study should help Cuba, through a better EN control, to improve long-term food safety and define healthier dietary habits.

  12. The influence of API concentration on the roller compaction process: modeling and prediction of the post compacted ribbon, granule and tablet properties using multivariate data analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boersen, Nathan; Carvajal, M Teresa; Morris, Kenneth R; Peck, Garnet E; Pinal, Rodolfo

    2015-01-01

    While previous research has demonstrated roller compaction operating parameters strongly influence the properties of the final product, a greater emphasis might be placed on the raw material attributes of the formulation. There were two main objectives to this study. First, to assess the effects of different process variables on the properties of the obtained ribbons and downstream granules produced from the rolled compacted ribbons. Second, was to establish if models obtained with formulations of one active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) could predict the properties of similar formulations in terms of the excipients used, but with a different API. Tolmetin and acetaminophen, chosen for their different compaction properties, were roller compacted on Fitzpatrick roller compactor using the same formulation. Models created using tolmetin and tested using acetaminophen. The physical properties of the blends, ribbon, granule and tablet were characterized. Multivariate analysis using partial least squares was used to analyze all data. Multivariate models showed that the operating parameters and raw material attributes were essential in the prediction of ribbon porosity and post-milled particle size. The post compacted ribbon and granule attributes also significantly contributed to the prediction of the tablet tensile strength. Models derived using tolmetin could reasonably predict the ribbon porosity of a second API. After further processing, the post-milled ribbon and granules properties, rather than the physical attributes of the formulation were needed to predict downstream tablet properties. An understanding of the percolation threshold of the formulation significantly improved the predictive ability of the models.

  13. Applicability of a Single Time Point Strategy for the Prediction of Area Under the Concentration Curve of Linezolid in Patients: Superiority of Ctrough- over Cmax-Derived Linear Regression Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivas, Nuggehally R; Syed, Muzeeb

    2016-03-01

    Linezolid, a oxazolidinone, was the first in class to be approved for the treatment of bacterial infections arising from both susceptible and resistant strains of Gram-positive bacteria. Since overt exposure of linezolid may precipitate serious toxicity issues, therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) may be required in certain situations, especially in patients who are prescribed other co-medications. Using appropriate oral pharmacokinetic data (single dose and steady state) for linezolid, both maximum plasma drug concentration (Cmax) versus area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) and minimum plasma drug concentration (Cmin) versus AUC relationship was established by linear regression models. The predictions of the AUC values were performed using published mean/median Cmax or Cmin data and appropriate regression lines. The quotient of observed and predicted values rendered fold difference calculation. The mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), correlation coefficient (r), and the goodness of the AUC fold prediction were used to evaluate the two models. The Cmax versus AUC and trough plasma concentration (Ctrough) versus AUC models displayed excellent correlation, with r values of >0.9760. However, linezolid AUC values were predicted to be within the narrower boundary of 0.76 to 1.5-fold by a higher percentage by the Ctrough (78.3%) versus Cmax model (48.2%). The Ctrough model showed superior correlation of predicted versus observed values and RMSE (r = 0.9031; 28.54%, respectively) compared with the Cmax model (r = 0.5824; 61.34%, respectively). A single time point strategy of using Ctrough level is possible as a prospective tool to measure the AUC of linezolid in the patient population.

  14. Analyzing the capacity of the Daphnia magna and Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata bioavailability models to predict chronic zinc toxicity at high pH and low calcium concentrations and formulation of a generalized bioavailability model for D. magna.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Regenmortel, Tina; Berteloot, Olivier; Janssen, Colin R; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C

    2017-10-01

    Risk assessment in the European Union implements Zn bioavailability models to derive predicted-no-effect concentrations for Zn. These models are validated within certain boundaries (i.e., pH ≤ 8 and Ca concentrations ≥ 5mg/L), but a substantial fraction of the European surface waters falls outside these boundaries. Therefore, we evaluated whether the chronic Zn biotic ligand model (BLM) for Daphnia magna and the chronic bioavailability model for Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata could be extrapolated to pH > 8 and Ca concentrations model can accurately predict Zn toxicity for Ca concentrations down to 0.8 mg/L and pH values up to 8.5. Because the chronic Zn BLM for D. magna could not be extrapolated beyond its validity boundaries for pH, a generalized bioavailability model (gBAM) was developed. Of 4 gBAMs developed, we recommend the use of gBAM-D, which combines a log-linear relation between the 21-d median effective concentrations (expressed as free Zn 2+ ion activity) and pH, with more conventional BLM-type competition constants for Na, Ca, and Mg. This model is a first step in further improving the accuracy of chronic toxicity predictions of Zn as a function of water chemistry, which can decrease the uncertainty in implementing the bioavailability-based predicted-no-effect concentration in the risk assessment of high-pH and low-Ca concentration regions in Europe. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2781-2798. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  15. Prediction of ambient concentration of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the Sea Empress oil spill using vapour and oil property models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carruthers, D.J.; Ellis, K.L.

    1997-09-01

    Modelling has been used to estimate concentrations of benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene and xylene (BTEX), 1,3 butadiene and total hydrocarbons due to evaporation of volatiles from the Sea Empress oil spill. This involved estimating the release rates of oil during each tidal cycle, calculating the spread and evaporation rate of the oil and then using the dispersion model ADMS to determine concentrations in air of the species. The calculations generally show that the highest concentrations occur directly above recently released oil (released within the last 12 hours). Concentrations on land were generally small as the predominant wind directions were seaward throughout the period when the oil spill would have been evaporating. However, total hydrocarbon concentrations measured at various land sites were significant during the spill period even when the wind was blowing away from the monitoring sites. The measured concentrations were also high for a further period after the spill when evaporation of the spilled oil would have decreased to small levels. This suggests that much of the measured hydrocarbons were emitted from other sources (e.g. the oil refineries). (author)

  16. Early gray-matter and white-matter concentration in infancy predict later language skills: a whole brain voxel-based morphometry study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deniz Can, Dilara; Richards, Todd; Kuhl, Patricia K

    2013-01-01

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) brain scans were obtained from 19 infants at 7 months. Expressive and receptive language performance was assessed at 12 months. Voxel-based morphometry (VBM) identified brain regions where gray-matter and white-matter concentrations at 7 months correlated significantly with children's language scores at 12 months. Early gray-matter concentration in the right cerebellum, early white-matter concentration in the right cerebellum, and early white-matter concentration in the left posterior limb of the internal capsule (PLIC)/cerebral peduncle were positively and strongly associated with infants' receptive language ability at 12 months. Early gray-matter concentration in the right hippocampus was positively and strongly correlated with infants' expressive language ability at 12 months. Our results suggest that the cerebellum, PLIC/cerebral peduncle, and the hippocampus may be associated with early language development. Potential links between these structural predictors and infants' linguistic functions are discussed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Long term disease-free survival and T cell and antibody responses in women with high-risk Her2+ breast cancer following vaccination against Her2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anders Carey

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The HER2-inhibiting antibody trastuzumab, in combination with chemotherapy, significantly improves survival of women with resected, HER2-overexpressing breast cancers, but is associated with toxicities including a risk of cardiomyopathy. Additionally, the beneficial effect of trastuzumab is expected to decrease once the drug is discontinued. We proposed to address these concerns by using cancer vaccines to stimulate HER2 intracellular domain (ICD-specific T cell and antibody responses. Methods Subjects with stage II (≥ 6 +LN, III, or stage IV breast cancerwith > 50% HER2 overexpressing tumor cells who were disease-free after surgery and adjuvant therapy were eligible. Vaccines consisted of immature, cultured DC (n = 3, mature cultured DC (n = 3, or mature Flt3-ligand mobilized peripheral blood DC (n = 1 loaded with ICD, or tetanus toxoid, keyhole limpet hemocyanin or CMV peptide as controls, and were administered intradermally/subcutaneously four times at 3 week intervals. ICD-specific T cell and antibody responses were measured. Cardiac function was determined by MUGA or ECHO; long term disease status was obtained from patient contact. Results All seven patients successfully underwent DC generation and five received all 4 immunizations. There were no toxicities greater than grade 1 or ejection fraction decrements below normal. Delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH reactions at the injection site occurred in 6/7 patients and HER2 specificity was detected by cytokine flow cytometry or ELISPOT in 5 patients. At more than 5 years of follow-up, 6/7 had detectable anti-ICD antibodies. One patient experienced a pulmonary recurrence at 4 years from their study immunizations. This recurrence was resected and they are without evidence of disease. All patients are alive and disease-free at 4.6–6.7 years of follow-up. Conclusion Although this was a small pilot study, the well-tolerated nature of the vaccines, the lack of cardiac

  18. Quality of life and sexuality in disease-free survivors of cervical cancer after radical hysterectomy alone: A comparison between total laparoscopy and laparotomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Meizhu; Gao, Huiqiao; Bai, Huimin; Zhang, Zhenyu

    2016-09-01

    The aim of the present study was to evaluate the possible differences between total laparoscopy and laparotomy regarding their impact on postoperative quality of life and sexuality in disease-free cervical cancer survivors who received radical hysterectomy (RH) and/or lymphadenectomy alone and were followed for >1 year.We reviewed all patients with cervical cancer who had received surgical treatment in our hospital between January 2001 and March 2014. Consecutive sexually active survivors who received RH and/or lymphadenectomy for early stage cervical cancer were enrolled and divided into 2 groups based on surgical approach. Survivors were interviewed and completed validated questionnaires, including the European Organization for Research Treatment of Cancer Quality-of-Life Core Questionnaire including 30 items, the Cervical Cancer-Specific Module of European Organization for Research Treatment of Cancer Quality-of-Life Questionnaire including 24 items (EORTC QLQ-CX24), and the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI).In total, 273 patients with histologically confirmed cervical cancer were retrospectively reviewed. However, only 64 patients had received RH and/or lymphadenectomy alone; 58 survivors meeting the inclusion criteria were enrolled, including 42 total laparoscopy cases and 16 laparotomy cases, with an average follow-up of 46.1 and 51.2 months, respectively. The survivors in the 2 groups obtained good and similar scores on all items of the European Organization for Research Treatment of Cancer Quality-of-Life Core Questionnaire including 30 items and Cervical Cancer-Specific Module of European Organization for Research Treatment of Cancer Quality-of-Life Questionnaire including 24 items, without significant differences after controlling for covariate background characteristics. To the date of submission, 21.4% (9/42) of cases in the total laparoscopy group and 31.2% (5/16) of cases in the laparotomy group had not resumed sexual behavior after RH. Additionally

  19. Differentiated thyroid cancer (papillary). Brain tumor metastasis as clinical onset. surgical treatment and "1"3"1I. 8 years disease-free

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mena, D.; Pena, M.; Alvarez, L.; García del Rio, H.; Bruno, O.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The differentiated thyroid cancer is the most common endocrine neoplasia. The major manifestation belongs to the papillary variant (65-90%). The prognosis tends to be very favorable, with a mortality rate of 1.8 % and a disease-free rate up to 10 years of around 90-95 %. The distant metastasis in brain accounts for 0.1-5 %. There are no established protocols for the management of brain metastasis. Therapeutic options are: surgery, stereotactic radiotherapy / radiosurgery, and "1"3"1I. The successful management of this case is an option for brain metastasis from thyroid papillary carcinoma. Case report: A 77 year-old female begins with double vision (diplopia). She underwent twice a surgery for brain tumor with a histopathological report on thyroid papillary tissue. The endocrine evaluation determines euthyroid state except thyroglobulin (TG) 2300 ng/ml. Total thyroidectomy with classic thyroid papillary carcinoma. A diagnostic "1"3"1I scan after surgery shows for first time brain metastasis uptake. The patient receives 25 mCi of "1"3"1I as initial therapeutic dose, and subsequent therapeutic doses (50, 50, 75, 75, 50 mCi) in 2 years, in accordance with the evolution of magnetic resonance, clinic, endocrine lab, hematological analysis, and "1"3"1I scintigraphy, that shows the possible remission of the disease. The follow-up was carried out by means of a clinical control, thyroglobulin values, U.S., "1"3"1I scans, and magnetic resonance. The patient is at the present time over 11 years survival and 8 years disease-free. Discussion: Even though the distant metastasis is not very common in brain and is generally associated with aggressive variants of tumor, our case started with a metastatic brain tumor in an euthyroid patient with no thyroid pathology background and with low-risk post-thyroidectomy criterion. The "1"3"1I scan turned positive in brain metastasis when the patient was thyroidectomized. This detail must be considered important, since it

  20. Quality of life in women undergoing urinary diversion for bladder cancer: results of a multicenter study among long-term disease-free survivors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gacci, Mauro; Saleh, Omar; Cai, Tommaso; Gore, John L; D'Elia, Carolina; Minervini, Andrea; Masieri, Lorenzo; Giannessi, Claudia; Lanciotti, Michele; Varca, Virginia; Simonato, Alchiede; Serni, Sergio; Carmignani, Giorgio; Carini, Marco

    2013-03-12

    Women undergoing radical cystectomy (RC) and urinary diversion for bladder cancer experience substantial limitations in health-related quality of life (HRQOL). However, the level of discomfort caused by different urinary diversion has been never evaluated in long term survivors. The aim of this multicenter study is to evaluate differences in HRQOL among recurrence-free women undergoing cutaneous ureterostomy (CUS), Bricker's ileal conduit (BK-IC) and Orthotopic neobladder VIP (ONB-VIP) in disease-free females treated with radical cystectomy (RC), with long-term follow up (mean 60.1 months; range 36-122 months). All consecutively treated female patients from two urological institutions who underwent RC and urinary diversion from January 2000 to December 2008, with no evidence of tumor recurrence at a minimum follow up of 36 months, were included. Patients received the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) generic (QLQ-C30) and bladder cancer-specific instruments (QLQ-BLM30) and the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy for Bladder Cancer (FACT-BL). Clinical data and questionnaire results were analyzed in order to evaluate the HRQOL differences among diversion groups. We identified 37 females (median age: 68, range 45-82 years), including 12 status-post CUS, 16 who underwent BK-IC, and 9 who underwent ONB-VIP. Most were healthy (24/37 with no comorbidities, 4/37 Charlson 1-2, 9/37 Charlson 3 or greater - we didn't considered bladder cancer in Charlson evaluation because bladder cancer was the main inclusion criteria). Women undergoing CUS endorsed worse FACT-BL scores compared with BK-IC and ONB-VIP patients, worse HRQOL regarding physical and emotional well-being (p=0.008 and p=0.02, respectively), and a trend toward worse EORTC QLQ-C30 scores for appetite loss and fatigue (p=0.05 for both). In our study long-term disease-free females treated with CUS endorsed worse HRQOL compared with women who underwent BK-IC or ONB-VIP, mostly due

  1. Predictions by the multimedia environmental fate model SimpleBox compared to field data: Intermedia concentration ratios of two phthalate esters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Struijs J; Peijnenburg WJGM; ECO

    2003-01-01

    The multimedia environmental fate model SimpleBox is applied to compute steady-state concentration ratios with the aim to harmonize environmetal quality objectives of air, water, sediment and soil. In 1995 the Dutch Health Council recommended validation of the model. Several activities were

  2. Health monitoring of plants by their emitted volatiles: A model to predict the effect of Botrytis cinerea on the concentration of volatiles in a large-scale greenhouse

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, R.M.C.; Hofstee, J.W.; Wildt, J.; Vanthoor, B.H.E.; Verstappen, F.W.A.; Takayama, K.; Bouwmeester, H.J.; Henten, van E.J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper describes a model to calculate the concentrations of (Z)-3-hexenol, a-pinene, a-terpinene, ß-caryophyllene, and methyl salicylate in a greenhouse on the basis of their source and sink behaviour. The model was used to determine whether these volatile organic compounds (VOCs) can be used to

  3. Area under the curve predictions of dalbavancin, a new lipoglycopeptide agent, using the end of intravenous infusion concentration data point by regression analyses such as linear, log-linear and power models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhamidipati, Ravi Kanth; Syed, Muzeeb; Mullangi, Ramesh; Srinivas, Nuggehally

    2018-02-01

    1. Dalbavancin, a lipoglycopeptide, is approved for treating gram-positive bacterial infections. Area under plasma concentration versus time curve (AUC inf ) of dalbavancin is a key parameter and AUC inf /MIC ratio is a critical pharmacodynamic marker. 2. Using end of intravenous infusion concentration (i.e. C max ) C max versus AUC inf relationship for dalbavancin was established by regression analyses (i.e. linear, log-log, log-linear and power models) using 21 pairs of subject data. 3. The predictions of the AUC inf were performed using published C max data by application of regression equations. The quotient of observed/predicted values rendered fold difference. The mean absolute error (MAE)/root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (r) were used in the assessment. 4. MAE and RMSE values for the various models were comparable. The C max versus AUC inf exhibited excellent correlation (r > 0.9488). The internal data evaluation showed narrow confinement (0.84-1.14-fold difference) with a RMSE models predicted AUC inf with a RMSE of 3.02-27.46% with fold difference largely contained within 0.64-1.48. 5. Regardless of the regression models, a single time point strategy of using C max (i.e. end of 30-min infusion) is amenable as a prospective tool for predicting AUC inf of dalbavancin in patients.

  4. Towards automating measurements and predictions of Escherichia coli concentrations in the Cuyahoga River, Cuyahoga Valley National Park, Ohio, 2012–14

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, Amie M. G.; Meg B. Plona,

    2015-07-30

    Nowcasts are systems that can provide estimates of the current bacterial water-quality conditions based on predictive models using easily-measured, explanatory variables; nowcasts can provide the public with the information to make informed decisions on the risk associated with recreational activities in natural water bodies. Previous studies on the Cuyahoga River within Cuyahoga Valley National Park (CVNP) have found that predictive models can be used to provide accurate assessments of the recreational water quality. However, in order to run the previously developed nowcasts for CVNP, manual collection and processing of samples is required on a daily basis to acquire the required explanatory variable data (laboratory-measured turbidity). The U.S. Geological Survey and the National Park Service collaborated to develop a more automated approach to provide more timely results to park visitors regarding the recreational water quality of the river.

  5. Can Insoluble Polysaccharide Concentration In Dental Plaque, Sugar Exposure And Cariogenic Microorganisms Predict Early Childhood Caries? A Follow-up Study

    OpenAIRE

    Parisotto; T. M.; Stipp; R.; Rodrigues; L. K. A.; Mattos-Graner; R. O.; Costa; L. S.; Nobre-dos-Santos; M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Insoluble polysaccharide (IP) has been associated with caries prevalence in young children. However, the power of IP to predict ECC needs to be demonstrated. Aims: To assess the relationships between early childhood caries (ECC) and extracellular insoluble polysaccharides (IP) in dental plaque, sugar exposure and cariogenic microorganisms. Design: Visible plaque on maxillary incisors was recorded, followed by caries diagnosis in 65 preschoolers (3-4 years) at baseline and after 1 ...

  6. Surface complexation modeling for predicting solid phase arsenic concentrations in the sediments of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer, Arkansas, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharif, M.S.U.; Davis, R.K.; Steele, K.F.; Kim, B.; Hays, P.D.; Kresse, T.M.; Fazio, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    The potential health impact of As in drinking water supply systems in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in the state of Arkansas, USA is significant. In this context it is important to understand the occurrence, distribution and mobilization of As in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer. Application of surface complexation models (SCMs) to predict the sorption behavior of As and hydrous Fe oxides (HFO) in the laboratory has increased in the last decade. However, the application of SCMs to predict the sorption of As in natural sediments has not often been reported, and such applications are greatly constrained by the lack of site-specific model parameters. Attempts have been made to use SCMs considering a component additivity (CA) approach which accounts for relative abundances of pure phases in natural sediments, followed by the addition of SCM parameters individually for each phase. Although few reliable and internally consistent sorption databases related to HFO exist, the use of SCMs using laboratory-derived sorption databases to predict the mobility of As in natural sediments has increased. This study is an attempt to evaluate the ability of the SCMs using the geochemical code PHREEQC to predict solid phase As in the sediments of the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in Arkansas. The SCM option of the double-layer model (DLM) was simulated using ferrihydrite and goethite as sorbents quantified from chemical extractions, calculated surface-site densities, published surface properties, and published laboratory-derived sorption constants for the sorbents. The model results are satisfactory for shallow wells (10.6. m below ground surface), where the redox condition is relatively oxic or mildly suboxic. However, for the deep alluvial aquifer (21-36.6. m below ground surface) where the redox condition is suboxic to anoxic, the model results are unsatisfactory. ?? 2011 Elsevier Ltd.

  7. End points for adjuvant therapy trials: has the time come to accept disease-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sharlene; Sargent, Daniel

    2006-06-01

    The intent of adjuvant therapy is to eradicate micro-metastatic residual disease following curative resection with the goal of preventing or delaying recurrence. The time-honored standard for demonstrating efficacy of new adjuvant therapies is an improvement in overall survival (OS). This typically requires phase III trials of large sample size with lengthy follow-up. With the intent of reducing the cost and time of completing such trials, there is considerable interest in developing alternative or surrogate end points. A surrogate end point may be employed as a substitute to directly assess the effects of an intervention on an already accepted clinical end point such as mortality. When used judiciously, surrogate end points can accelerate the evaluation of new therapies, resulting in the more timely dissemination of effective therapies to patients. The current review provides a perspective on the suitability and validity of disease-free survival (DFS) as an alternative end point for OS. Criteria for establishing surrogacy and the advantages and limitations associated with the use of DFS as a primary end point in adjuvant clinical trials and as the basis for approval of new adjuvant therapies are discussed.

  8. Postoperative radiotherapy appeared to improve the disease free survival rate of patients with extrahepatic bile duct cancer at high risk of loco-regional recurrence

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Mi Young; Kim, Jin Hee; Kim, Yong Hoon [Keimyung University Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Byun, Sang Jun [Dept. of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-12-15

    To investigate the outcomes of postoperative radiotherapy (RT), in patients with extrahepatic bile duct (EHBD) cancer by comparing the survival rate between patients undergoing surgery alone or surgery plus postoperative RT, and to identify the prognostic factors affecting survival. Between 2000 and 2013, 52 patients with EHBD cancer underwent surgical resection. Of these, 33 patients did not receive postoperative RT (group I), and 19 patients did (group II). R1 resection was significantly more frequent in group II. The median radiation dose was 5,040 cGy. The 3-year overall survival (OS) rate for group I and group II was 38% and 56%, respectively (p = 0.274). The 3-year disease free survival (DFS) rate for group I and group II was 20% and 31%, respectively (p = 0.049), and the 3-year loco-regional recurrence free survival (LRFS) rates were 19% and 58%, respectively (p = 0.002). Multivariate analyses showed that postoperative RT and lymphovascular invasion were independent prognostic factors for DFS and LRFS. Overall, 42 patients (80%) experienced treatment failure. Distant metastasis was the predominant pattern of failure in group II. Postoperative RT after surgical resection appeared to improve the loco-regional control and DFS rate. More effort is needed to reduce distant metastasis, the major pattern of failure, in patients who receive postoperative RT.

  9. Prediction of digestibility and energy concentration of winter pasture forage and herbage of low-input grassland--a comparison of methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Opitz v Boberfeld, W; Theobald, P C; Laser, H

    2003-06-01

    Regarding the estimation of the energy concentration or digestibility of herb-dominated forage and plant samples from winter pastures, it could be expected that the estimation is only reliable when in vitro methods with rumen fluid as inoculum (= gas production techniques) are used. For the verification of this thesis based on logical reflections, an in vitro-method with rumen fluid added as inoculum, as well as chemical, and enzymatic methods were applied under consideration of existing estimating functions. As a possible reason for the observed divergence of the methods, effects of fungal infections or, respectively, secondary compounds in herbs are discussed. At the present state of knowledge, it is adequate to estimate the energy concentration in vitro by gas tests, as far as fattening types like suckler cows and beef cattle are concerned, maybe in contrast to the forage evaluation for dairy cows.

  10. Combined evaluation of the Glasgow prognostic score and carcinoembryonic antigen concentration prior to hepatectomy predicts postoperative outcomes in patients with liver metastasis from colorectal cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Takashi; Kawakamil, Masayo; Hara, Yoshiaki; Shioiri, Sadaaki; Yasuno, Masamichi; Teruya, Masanori; Kaminishi, Michio

    2014-01-01

    Little is known about the ability of the inflammation-based Glasgow prognostic score (GPS). 106 patients who underwent curative resection for colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM) were analyzed. Patients with an elevated Creactive protein concentration (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) at admission were assigned a GPS 2, those with only 1 of these biochemical abnormalities were assigned a GPS 1, and those without either abnormality were assigned a GPS 0. Multivariate analysis showed that 2 variables, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) concentration > 30 ng/mL and a GPS 1 or 2, were independently prognostic of survival. Patients were classified into 3 groups on the basis of these 2 variables. Patients with GPS 1 or 2 and CEA concentration > 30 ng/mL were assigned a new score of 2, those with either 1 factor were assigned a new score of 1, and those with neither factors were assigned a new score of 0. The 5-year overall survival rates of new scores of 0, 1, 2 were 71.5%, 31.6%, and 0%, respectively (P < 0.0001). This simple staging system may be able to identify a subgroup of patients who are eligible for curative resection but show poor prognosis.

  11. Ribavirin Concentrations Do Not Predict Sustained Virological Response in HIV/HCV-Coinfected Patients Treated with Ribavirin and Pegylated Interferon in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helen Kovari

    Full Text Available Ribavirin (RBV is an essential component of most current hepatitis C (HCV treatment regimens and still standard of care in the combination with pegylated interferon (pegIFN to treat chronic HCV in resource limited settings. Study results in HIV/HCV-coinfected patients are contradicting as to whether RBV concentration correlates with sustained virological response (SVR.We included 262 HCV treatment naïve HIV/HCV-coinfected Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS participants treated with RBV and pegIFN between 01.01.2001-01.01.2010, 134 with HCV genotype (GT 1/4, and 128 with GT 2/3 infections. RBV levels were measured retrospectively in stored plasma samples obtained between HCV treatment week 4 and end of therapy. Uni- and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the association between RBV concentration and SVR in GT 1/4 and GT 2/3 infections. The analyses were repeated stratified by treatment phase (week 4-12, 13-24, >24 and IL28B genotype (CC versus CT/TT.SVR rates were 35.1% in GT 1/4 and 70.3% in GT 2/3 infections. Overall, median RBV concentration was 2.0 mg/L in GT 1/4, and 1.9 mg/L in GT 2/3, and did not change significantly across treatment phases. Patients with SVR had similar RBV concentrations compared to patients without SVR in both HCV genotype groups. SVR was not associated with RBV levels ≥2.0 mg/L (GT 1/4, OR 1.19 [0.5-2.86]; GT 2/3, 1.94 [0.78-4.80] and ≥2.5 mg/L (GT 1/4, 1.56 [0.64-3.84]; GT 2/3 2.72 [0.85-8.73], regardless of treatment phase, and IL28B genotype.In HIV/HCV-coinfected patients treated with pegIFN/RBV, therapeutic drug monitoring of RBV concentrations does not enhance the chance of HCV cure, regardless of HCV genotype, treatment phase and IL28B genotype.

  12. MRE11-Deficiency Associated with Improved Long-Term Disease Free Survival and Overall Survival in a Subset of Stage III Colon Cancer Patients in Randomized CALGB 89803 Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pavelitz, Thomas; Renfro, Lindsay; Foster, Nathan R.; Caracol, Amber; Welsch, Piri; Lao, Victoria Valinluck; Grady, William B.; Niedzwiecki, Donna; Saltz, Leonard B.; Bertagnolli, Monica M.; Goldberg, Richard M.; Rabinovitch, Peter S.; Emond, Mary; Monnat, Raymond J.; Maizels, Nancy

    2014-01-01

    Purpose Colon cancers deficient in mismatch repair (MMR) may exhibit diminished expression of the DNA repair gene, MRE11, as a consequence of contraction of a T11 mononucleotide tract. This study investigated MRE11 status and its association with prognosis, survival and drug response in patients with stage III colon cancer. Patients and Methods Cancer and Leukemia Group B 89803 (Alliance) randomly assigned 1,264 patients with stage III colon cancer to postoperative weekly adjuvant bolus 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin (FU/LV) or irinotecan+FU/LV (IFL), with 8 year follow-up. Tumors from these patients were analyzed to determine stability of a T11 tract in the MRE11 gene. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), and a secondary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS). Non-proportional hazards were addressed using time-dependent covariates in Cox analyses. Results Of 625 tumor cases examined, 70 (11.2%) exhibited contraction at the T11 tract in one or both MRE11 alleles and were thus predicted to be deficient in MRE11 (dMRE11). In pooled treatment analyses, dMRE11 patients showed initially reduced DFS and OS but improved long-term DFS and OS compared with patients with an intact MRE11 T11 tract. In the subgroup of dMRE11 patients treated with IFL, an unexplained early increase in mortality but better long-term DFS than IFL-treated pMRE11 patients was observed. Conclusions Analysis of this relatively small number of patients and events showed that the dMRE11 marker predicts better prognosis independent of treatment in the long-term. In subgroup analyses, dMRE11 patients treated with irinotecan exhibited unexplained short-term mortality. MRE11 status is readily assayed and may therefore prove to be a useful prognostic marker, provided that the results reported here for a relatively small number of patients can be generalized in independent analyses of larger numbers of samples. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00003835 PMID:25310185

  13. MRE11-deficiency associated with improved long-term disease free survival and overall survival in a subset of stage III colon cancer patients in randomized CALGB 89803 trial.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Pavelitz

    Full Text Available Colon cancers deficient in mismatch repair (MMR may exhibit diminished expression of the DNA repair gene, MRE11, as a consequence of contraction of a T11 mononucleotide tract. This study investigated MRE11 status and its association with prognosis, survival and drug response in patients with stage III colon cancer.Cancer and Leukemia Group B 89803 (Alliance randomly assigned 1,264 patients with stage III colon cancer to postoperative weekly adjuvant bolus 5-fluorouracil/leucovorin (FU/LV or irinotecan+FU/LV (IFL, with 8 year follow-up. Tumors from these patients were analyzed to determine stability of a T11 tract in the MRE11 gene. The primary endpoint was overall survival (OS, and a secondary endpoint was disease-free survival (DFS. Non-proportional hazards were addressed using time-dependent covariates in Cox analyses.Of 625 tumor cases examined, 70 (11.2% exhibited contraction at the T11 tract in one or both MRE11 alleles and were thus predicted to be deficient in MRE11 (dMRE11. In pooled treatment analyses, dMRE11 patients showed initially reduced DFS and OS but improved long-term DFS and OS compared with patients with an intact MRE11 T11 tract. In the subgroup of dMRE11 patients treated with IFL, an unexplained early increase in mortality but better long-term DFS than IFL-treated pMRE11 patients was observed.Analysis of this relatively small number of patients and events showed that the dMRE11 marker predicts better prognosis independent of treatment in the long-term. In subgroup analyses, dMRE11 patients treated with irinotecan exhibited unexplained short-term mortality. MRE11 status is readily assayed and may therefore prove to be a useful prognostic marker, provided that the results reported here for a relatively small number of patients can be generalized in independent analyses of larger numbers of samples.ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00003835.

  14. Concentrated Ownership

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rose, Caspar

    2014-01-01

    This entry summarizes the main theoretical contributions and empirical findings in relation to concentrated ownership from a law and economics perspective. The various forms of concentrated ownership are described as well as analyzed from the perspective of the legal protection of investors......, especially minority shareholders. Concentrated ownership is associated with benefits and costs. Concentrated ownership may reduce agency costs by increased monitoring of top management. However, concentrated ownership may also provide dominating owners with private benefits of control....

  15. Individual-Level Concentrations of Fine Particulate Matter Chemical Components and Subclinical Atherosclerosis: A Cross-Sectional Analysis Based on 2 Advanced Exposure Prediction Models in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sun-Young; Sheppard, Lianne; Kaufman, Joel D.; Bergen, Silas; Szpiro, Adam A.; Larson, Timothy V.; Adar, Sara D.; Diez Roux, Ana V.; Polak, Joseph F.; Vedal, Sverre

    2014-01-01

    Long-term exposure to outdoor particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 µm (PM2.5) has been associated with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. The chemical composition of PM2.5 that may be most responsible for producing these associations has not been identified. We assessed cross-sectional associations between long-term concentrations of PM2.5 and 4 of its chemical components (sulfur, silicon, elemental carbon, and organic carbon (OC)) and subclinical atherosclerosis, measured as carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and coronary artery calcium, between 2000 and 2002 among 5,488 Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants residing in 6 US metropolitan areas. Long-term concentrations of PM2.5 components at participants' homes were predicted using both city-specific spatiotemporal models and a national spatial model. The estimated differences in CIMT associated with interquartile-range increases in sulfur, silicon, and OC predictions from the spatiotemporal model were 0.022 mm (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.014, 0.031), 0.006 mm (95% CI: 0.000, 0.012), and 0.026 mm (95% CI: 0.019, 0.034), respectively. Findings were generally similar using the national spatial model predictions but were often sensitive to adjustment for city. We did not find strong evidence of associations with coronary artery calcium. Long-term concentrations of sulfur and OC, and possibly silicon, were associated with CIMT using 2 distinct exposure prediction modeling approaches. PMID:25164422

  16. Influence of physical and chemical properties of HTSXT-FTIR samples on the quality of prediction models developed to determine absolute concentrations of total proteins, carbohydrates and triglycerides: a preliminary study on the determination of their absolute concentrations in fresh microalgal biomass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serrano León, Esteban; Coat, Rémy; Moutel, Benjamin; Pruvost, Jérémy; Legrand, Jack; Gonçalves, Olivier

    2014-11-01

    Absolute concentrations of total macromolecules (triglycerides, proteins and carbohydrates) in microorganisms can be rapidly measured by FTIR spectroscopy, but caution is needed to avoid non-specific experimental bias. Here, we assess the limits within which this approach can be used on model solutions of macromolecules of interest. We used the Bruker HTSXT-FTIR system. Our results show that the solid deposits obtained after the sampling procedure present physical and chemical properties that influence the quality of the absolute concentration prediction models (univariate and multivariate). The accuracy of the models was degraded by a factor of 2 or 3 outside the recommended concentration interval of 0.5-35 µg spot(-1). Change occurred notably in the sample hydrogen bond network, which could, however, be controlled using an internal probe (pseudohalide anion). We also demonstrate that for aqueous solutions, accurate prediction of total carbohydrate quantities (in glucose equivalent) could not be made unless a constant amount of protein was added to the model solution (BSA). The results of the prediction model for more complex solutions, here with two components: glucose and BSA, were very encouraging, suggesting that this FTIR approach could be used as a rapid quantification method for mixtures of molecules of interest, provided the limits of use of the HTSXT-FTIR method are precisely known and respected. This last finding opens the way to direct quantification of total molecules of interest in more complex matrices.

  17. Serial Sampling of High-Sensitivity Cardiac Troponin T May Not Be Required for Prediction of Acute Myocardial Infarction Diagnosis in Chest Pain Patients with Highly Abnormal Concentrations at Presentation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller-Hennessen, Matthias; Mueller, Christian; Giannitsis, Evangelos; Biener, Moritz; Vafaie, Mehrshad; deFilippi, Christopher R; Christ, Michael; Ordóñez-Llanos, Jorge; Panteghini, Mauro; Plebani, Mario; Verschuren, Franck; Melki, Dina; French, John K; Christenson, Robert H; Body, Richard; McCord, James; Dinkel, Carina; Katus, Hugo A; Lindahl, Bertil

    2017-02-01

    Guidelines for diagnosing acute myocardial infarction (AMI) recommend adding kinetic changes to the initial cardiac troponin (cTn) blood concentration to improve AMI diagnosis. We hypothesized that kinetic changes may not be required in patients presenting with highly abnormal cTn. Patients presenting with suspected AMI to the emergency department were enrolled in a prospective diagnostic study. We assessed the positive predictive value (PPV) of initial high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) blood concentrations alone and in combination with kinetic changes for AMI. Predefined relative changes (δ change of ≥20%) and absolute changes (Δ change ≥9.2 ng/L) within different time intervals (1 h, 2 h, and 4-14 h after presentation) were assessed. The final diagnosis was adjudicated by 2 independent cardiologists. Among 1282 patients, 213 (16.6%) patients had a final diagnosis of AMI. For AMI prediction, PPVs increased from 48.8% for an initial hs-cTnT >14 ng/L to 87.2% for >60 ng/L, whereas PPVs remained unchanged for higher hs-cTnT concentrations at baseline (87.1% for both >80 ng/L and >100 ng/L). With addition of 20% relative Δ change, PPVs were not further improved in patients with baseline hs-cTnT >80 ng/L using the 1-h (84.0%) and 2-h (88.9%) intervals, and only minimally when extending the interval to 4-14 h (91.2% for >80 ng/L and 90.4% for >100 ng/L, respectively). Similar findings were observed when applying absolute changes. In chest pain patients with highly abnormal hs-cTnT concentrations at presentation, subsequent blood draws may not be required, as they do not provide incremental diagnostic value for prediction of AMI diagnosis. © 2016 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.

  18. Estimating calibration equations for predicting Ra-226 soil concentrations using RTRAK in-situ detectors at the Ambrosia Lake, New Mexico, Umtra site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, R. O.; Meyer, H. R.; Miller, M. L.; Begley, C.

    1988-06-01

    This report describes a field study conducted at the Ambrosia Lake, New Mexico, UMTRA site to obtain data for calibrating the RTRAK Sodium Iodide (NaI) detectors for estimating concentrations of Ra-226 in surface soil. The statistical analyses indicate that the data are useful for estimating the calibration equations. Several statistical models are used to evaluate which model is best as a basis for the calibration equations. A procedure is provided for using the estimated calibration equations and extensive RTRAK measurements to estimate the average Ra-226 concentration on 100-m 2 land areas to determine whether additional remedial action is needed. The UMTRA Project office proposes to use the RTRAK for cleanup verification of surface Ra-226 contamination. The system enables 100% coverage of areas having undergone remedial action. The sensitivity of the system enables verification at less than 5 pCi/g averaged over 100 m 2 , as specified by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards (40 CFR Part 192). This analysis demonstrates RTRAK's ability to meet reasonable standards of statistical accuracy, using commonly accepted procedures. 5 refs., 8 figs., 1 tab

  19. Air concentration of radiocaesium in Tsukuba, Japan following the release from the Tokai waste treatment plant: comparisons of observations with predictions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Igarashi, Yasuhito; Aoyama, Michio; Miyao, Takashi; Hirose, Katsumi; Komura, Kazuhisa; Yamamoto, Masayoshi

    1999-01-01

    On March 11, 1997 a fire and explosion accident occurred at the bituminization facility of the Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development, Tokai, Japan. As a result of this accident, 134,137 Cs was detected in an air filter sample collected at the Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba during March 10 to 12. The 134,137 Cs air concentration was about 100 and 10 μBq m -3 , respectively. This result suggests that there was little radiation exposure of the residents in the area. The average 137 Cs air concentration during this period was about two orders of magnitude higher than 'baseline' air (sub-μBq m -3 ) during February to April, 1997, measured by ultra-low background γ-spectrometry. By a simple calculation using a Gaussian plume model with the measured data, we estimated the minimum emission of the radioactivity by the PNC accident to be in the range 60 MBq to around 600 MBq. The meteorological condition during the week of the accident are also described

  20. Can we predict uranium bioavailability based on soil parameters? Part 2: soil solution uranium concentration is not a good bioavailability index.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandenhove, H; Van Hees, M; Wannijn, J; Wouters, K; Wang, L

    2007-01-01

    The present study aimed to quantify the influence of soil parameters on uranium uptake by ryegrass. Ryegrass was established on eighteen distinct soils, spiked with (238)U. Uranium soil-to-plant transfer factors (TF) ranged from 0.0003 to 0.0340kgkg(-1). There was no significant relation between the U soil-to-plant transfer (or total U uptake or flux) and the uranium concentration in the soil solution or any other soil factor measured, nor with the U recovered following selective soil extractions. Multiple linear regression analysis resulted in a significant though complex model explaining up to 99% of variation in TF. The influence of uranium speciation on uranium uptake observed was featured: UO(2)(+2), uranyl carbonate complexes and UO(2)PO(4)(-) seem the U species being preferentially taken up by the roots and transferred to the shoots. Improved correlations were obtained when relating the uranium TF with the summed soil solution concentrations of mentioned uranium species.

  1. Elliptical concentrators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Botella, Angel; Fernandez-Balbuena, Antonio Alvarez; Bernabeu, Eusebio

    2006-10-10

    Nonimaging optics is a field devoted to the design of optical components for applications such as solar concentration or illumination. In this field, many different techniques have been used to produce optical devices, including the use of reflective and refractive components or inverse engineering techniques. However, many of these optical components are based on translational symmetries, rotational symmetries, or free-form surfaces. We study a new family of nonimaging concentrators called elliptical concentrators. This new family of concentrators provides new capabilities and can have different configurations, either homofocal or nonhomofocal. Translational and rotational concentrators can be considered as particular cases of elliptical concentrators.

  2. Radiotherapy for patients with isolated local recurrence of primary resected pancreatic cancer. Prolonged disease-free interval associated with favorable prognosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nakamura, Akira; Itasaka, Satoshi; Yoshimura, Michio; Matsuo, Yukinori; Mizowaki, Takashi; Hiraoka, Masahiro [Kyoto University, Department of Radiation Oncology and Image-Applied Therapy, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto (Japan); Takaori, Kyoichi; Kawaguchi, Yoshiya; Uemoto, Shinji [Kyoto University, Department of Surgery, Graduate School of Medicine, Kyoto (Japan); Shibuya, Keiko [Yamaguchi University Graduate School of Medicine, Department of Therapeutic Radiology, Yamaguchi (Japan)

    2014-05-15

    To evaluate the treatment outcomes of radiotherapy and prognostic factors for recurrent pancreatic cancer. The study comprised 30 patients who developed a locoregional recurrence of primarily resected pancreatic cancer and received radiotherapy between 2000 and 2013 with a median dose of 54 Gy (range, 39-60 Gy). Concurrent chemotherapy included gemcitabine for 18 patients and S-1 for seven patients. The treatment outcomes and prognostic factors were retrospectively analyzed. The median follow-up after radiotherapy was 14.6 months. The 1-year overall survival, local control, and progression-free survival rates were 69 %, 67 %, and 32 %, respectively. The median overall survival and progression-free survival rates were 15.9 and 6.9 months, respectively. Tumor marker reduction and ≥ 50 % reduction were observed in 18 and two patients, respectively. Of the seven patients who exhibited pain symptoms, four and two patients were partly and completely relieved, respectively. Late grade 3 ileus and gastroduodenal bleeding were observed in one patient each. Among the clinicopathological factors evaluated, only a disease-free interval of greater than 18.9 months exhibited a significant association with improved overall survival (p = 0.017). Radiotherapy for isolated locally recurrent pancreatic cancer resulted in encouraging local control, overall survival, and palliative effects with mild toxicity, particularly in patients with a prolonged disease-free interval. This treatment strategy should be prospectively evaluated. (orig.) [German] Beurteilung strahlentherapeutischer Behandlungsergebnisse und prognostischer Faktoren bei rezidivierendem Pankreaskrebs. In dieser Studie wurden 30 Patienten aufgenommen, bei denen es nach primaer reseziertem Pankreaskrebs zu lokoregionaeren Rezidiven kam und die zwischen 2000 und 2013 strahlentherapeutisch mit einer mittleren Dosis von 54 Gy (Bereich 39-60 Gy) behandelt wurden. Im Rahmen der gleichzeitig durchgefuehrten Chemotherapie wurde

  3. Concentration of the genera Aspergillus, Eurotium and Penicillium in 63-μm house dust fraction as a method to predict hidden moisture damage in homes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Assadian Ojan

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Quantitative measurements of mould enrichment of indoor air or house dust might be suitable surrogates to evaluate present but hidden moisture damage. Our intent was to develop a house-dust monitoring method to detect hidden moisture damage excluding the influence of outdoor air, accumulated old dust, and dust swirled up from room surfaces. Methods Based on standardized measurement of mould spores in the 63-μm fraction of house dust yielded by carpets, the background concentrations were determined and compared to simultaneously obtained colony numbers and total spore numbers of the indoor air in 80 non-mouldy living areas during summer and winter periods. Additionally, sampling with a vacuum-cleaner or manual sieve was compared to sampling with a filter holder or sieving machine, and the evaluative power of an established two-step assessment model (lower and upper limits was compared to that of a one-step model (one limit in order to derive concentration limits for mould load in house dust. Results Comparison with existing evaluation procedures proved the developed method to be the most reliable means of evaluating hidden moisture damage, yielding the lowest false-positive results (specificity 98.7%. Background measurements and measurements in 14 mouldy rooms show that even by evaluating just the indicator genera in summer and winter, a relatively certain assessment of mould infestation is possible. Conclusion A one-step evaluation is finally possible for house dust. The house-dust evaluation method is based on analysis of the indicator genera Aspergillus, Eurotium and Penicillium spp., which depend on the total fungal count. Inclusion of further moisture indicators currently appears questionable, because of outdoor air influence and the paucity of measurements.

  4. Reduced intensity haplo plus single cord transplant compared to double cord transplant: improved engraftment and graft-versus-host disease-free, relapse-free survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Besien, Koen; Hari, Parameswaran; Zhang, Mei-Jie; Liu, Hong-Tao; Stock, Wendy; Godley, Lucy; Odenike, Olatoyosi; Larson, Richard; Bishop, Michael; Wickrema, Amittha; Gergis, Usama; Mayer, Sebastian; Shore, Tsiporah; Tsai, Stephanie; Rhodes, Joanna; Cushing, Melissa M.; Korman, Sandra; Artz, Andrew

    2016-01-01

    Umbilical cord blood stem cell transplants are commonly used in adults lacking HLA-identical donors. Delays in hematopoietic recovery contribute to mortality and morbidity. To hasten recovery, we used co-infusion of progenitor cells from a partially matched related donor and from an umbilical cord blood graft (haplo-cord transplant). Here we compared the outcomes of haplo-cord and double-cord transplants. A total of 97 adults underwent reduced intensity conditioning followed by haplo-cord transplant and 193 patients received reduced intensity conditioning followed by double umbilical cord blood transplantation. Patients in the haplo-cord group were more often from minority groups and had more advanced malignancy. Haplo-cord recipients received fludarabine-melphalan-anti-thymocyte globulin. Double umbilical cord blood recipients received fludarabine-cyclophosphamide and low-dose total body irradiation. In a multivariate analysis, haplo-cord had faster neutrophil (HR=1.42, P=0.007) and platelet (HR=2.54, Pdisease (HR=0.26, Pdisease (HR=0.06, Pdisease-free, relapse-free survival was superior with haplo-cord (HR 0.63, P=0.002) but not overall survival (HR=0.97, P=0.85). Haplo-cord transplantation using fludarabine-melphalan-thymoglobulin conditioning hastens hematopoietic recovery with a lower risk of relapse relative to double umbilical cord blood transplantation using the commonly used fludarabine-cyclophosphamide-low-dose total body irradiation conditioning. Graft-versus-host disease-free and relapse-free survival is significantly improved. Haplo-cord is a readily available graft source that improves outcomes and access to transplant for those lacking HLA-matched donors. Trials registered at clinicaltrials.gov identifiers 00943800 and 01810588. PMID:26869630

  5. Postmastectomy radiotherapy improves disease-free survival of high risk of locoregional recurrence breast cancer patients with T1-2 and 1 to 3 positive nodes.

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    Zhen-Yu He

    Full Text Available The indications for post-mastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT with T1-2 breast cancer and 1-3 positive axillary lymph nodes is still controversial. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of PMRT in T1-2 breast cancer with 1-3 positive axillary lymph node.We retrospectively reviewed the file records of 79 patients receiving PMRT and not receiving PMRT (618 patients.The median follow-up was 65 months. Multivariate analysis showed that PMRT was an independent prognostic factor of locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS (P = 0.010. Subgroup analysis of patients who did not undergo PMRT showed that pT stage, number of positive axillary lymph nodes, and molecular subtype were independent prognostic factors of LRFS. PMRT improved LRFS in the entire group (P = 0.005, but did not affect distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS (P = 0.494, disease-free survival (DFS (P = 0.215, and overall survival (OS (P = 0.645. For patients without PMRT, the 5-year LRFS of low-risk patients (0-1 risk factor for locoregional recurrence of 94.5% was significantly higher than that of high-risk patients (2-3 risk factors for locoregional recurrence (80.9%, P < 0.001. PMRT improved LRFS (P = 0.001 and DFS (P = 0.027 in high-risk patients, but did not improve LRFS, DMFS, DFS, and OS in low-risk patients.PMRT is beneficial in patients with high risk of locoregional recurrence breast cancer patients with T1-2 and 1 to 3 positive nodes.

  6. Impact of cavitron ultrasonic surgical aspirator (CUSA) and bipolar radiofrequency device (Habib-4X) based hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma on tumour recurrence and disease-free survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Kai-Wen; Lee, Po-Huang; Kusano, Tomokazu; Reccia, Isabella; Jayant, Kumar; Habib, Nagy

    2017-11-07

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the oncological outcomes of hepatocellular carcinoma patients undergoing liver resection using cavitron ultrasonic surgical aspirator (CUSA) or radiofrequency (RF) based device Habib-4X.
. We prospectively analyzed the data of 280 patients who underwent liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma at our institution from 2010-2012 with follow up till August 2016. The CUSA was used in the 163 patients whilst Habib-4X in 117 patients. The end points of analysis were oncological outcomes as disease recurrence, disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method, which has been compared with all other existing literature on the survival study. Compared with CUSA the reported incidence of recurrence was significantly lower, in Habib-4X group; p Habib-4X group than CUSA group (50.80 vs 45.87 months, p = 0.03). The median OS was better in Habib-4X group than CUSA group (60.57 vs 57.17 months, p = 0.12) though the lesser difference in OS between the groups might be explained by the use of palliative therapies as TACE, percutaneous RFA, etc. in case of recurrence. RF based device Habib-4X, is safe and effective device for resection of hepatocellular carcinoma, in comparison to CUSA with better oncological outcomes, i.e., significantly lesser tumour recurrence and better DFS. This could be explained on the basis of systemic and local immunomodulatory effect involving induction of kupffer cells and effector CD-8 T cells that help in minimizing postoperative complications and bring more advantageous oncological outcomes.

  7. Differences in clinical characteristics and disease-free survival for Latino, African American, and non-Latino white men with localized prostate cancer: data from CaPSURE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Latini, David M; Elkin, Eric P; Cooperberg, Matthew R; Sadetsky, Natalia; Duchane, Janeen; Carroll, Peter R

    2006-02-15

    Few studies of ethnicity and prostate cancer have included Latino men in analyses of baseline clinical characteristics, treatment selection, and disease-free survival (DFS). The present study examines the impact of Latino ethnicity on these parameters in a large, multiinstitutional database of men with prostate cancer. We compared baseline disease characteristics and clinical outcomes for Latino (N = 138), non-Latino White (NLW, N = 5619), and African-American (AA, N = 608) men with localized prostate cancer by using chi-square and ANOVA for baseline variables and survival analysis to examine differences in time to recurrence. Latino men resembled AA men more than NLW on sociodemographic characteristics. AA men had higher Gleason scores and prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at diagnosis than Latino or NLW men (both P Latino and AA men presented with advanced disease (T3b/T4/N+/M+) versus 4% of NLW (P Latino men did not receive different treatments than NLW or AA men after controlling for clinical and demographic factors; however, AA men were more likely to receive external beam radiation (OR = 1.51, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.99-2.31) and hormone treatment (OR = 1.56, 95% CI = 1.05-2.32) then NLW men. For prostatectomy patients, 3-year actuarial DFS rates were 83% for NLW men and 86% for Latino men versus 69% for AA men (P Latinos are more similar to African Americans on sociodemographic characteristics but more similar to NLW on clinical presentation, treatments received, and DFS. Copyright 2006 American Cancer Society.

  8. Concentration risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matić Vesna

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Concentration risk has been gaining a special dimension in the contemporary financial and economic environment. Financial institutions are exposed to this risk mainly in the field of lending, mostly through their credit activities and concentration of credit portfolios. This refers to the concentration of different exposures within a single risk category (credit risk, market risk, operational risk, liquidity risk.

  9. Accuracy of a point-of-care ELISA test kit for predicting the presence of protective canine parvovirus and canine distemper virus antibody concentrations in dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litster, A L; Pressler, B; Volpe, A; Dubovi, E

    2012-08-01

    Canine parvovirus (CPV) and canine distemper virus (CDV) are highly infectious and often fatal diseases with worldwide distributions, and are important population management considerations in animal shelters. A point-of-care ELISA test kit is available to detect serum antibodies to CPV and CDV, and presumptively to predict protective status. The aim of this study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the test compared to CPV hemagglutination inhibition titers and CDV serum neutralization titers determined by a reference laboratory, using sera collected from dogs housed at animal shelters. The ELISA test was used under both field and laboratory conditions and duplicate specimens were processed using an extra wash step. The test kit yielded accurate results (CPV: sensitivity 92.3%, specificity 93.5%; CDV: sensitivity 75.7%, specificity 91.8%) under field conditions. CDV sensitivity was improved by performing the test under laboratory conditions and using an optical density (OD) meter (laboratory performed 94.0%; OD 88.1%). Point-of-care ELISA testing for serum CPV and CDV antibody titers was demonstrated to be a useful tool for determining antibody status when making decisions regarding the need for CPV and/or CDV vaccination and also in animal shelters for population management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Concentrator Photovoltaics

    CERN Document Server

    Luque, Antonio L

    2007-01-01

    Photovoltaic solar-energy conversion is one of the most promising technologies for generating renewable energy, and conversion of concentrated sunlight can lead to reduced cost for solar electricity. In fact, photovoltaic conversion of concentrated sunlight insures an efficient and cost-effective sustainable power resource. This book gives an overview of all components, e.g. cells, concentrators, modules and systems, for systems of concentrator photovoltaics. The authors report on significant results related to design, technology, and applications, and also cover the fundamental physics and market considerations. Specific contributions include: theory and practice of sunlight concentrators; an overview of concentrator PV activities; a description of concentrator solar cells; design and technology of modules and systems; manufacturing aspects; and a market study.

  11. Applications of linking PBPK and PD models to predict the impact of genotypic variability, formulation differences, differences in target binding capacity and target site drug concentrations on drug responses and variability.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manoranjenni eChetty

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to demonstrate the added value of integrating prior in vitro data and knowledge-rich physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK models with pharmacodynamics (PD models. Four distinct applications that were developed and tested are presented here. PBPK models were developed for metoprolol using different CYP2D6 genotypes based on in vitro data. Application of the models for prediction of phenotypic differences in the pharmacokinetics (PK and PD compared favourably with clinical data, demonstrating that these differences can be predicted prior to the availability of such data from clinical trials. In the second case, PK and PD data for an immediate release formulation of nifedipine together with in vitro dissolution data for a controlled release formulation (CR were used to predict the PK and PD of the CR. This approach can be useful to pharmaceutical scientists during formulation development. The operational model of agonism was used in the third application to describe the hypnotic effects of triazolam, and this was successfully extrapolated to zolpidem by changing only the drug related parameters from in vitro experiments. This PBPK modelling approach can be useful to developmental scientists who which to compare several drug candidates in the same therapeutic class. Finally, differences in QTc prolongation due to quinidine in Caucasian and Korean females were successfully predicted by the model using free heart concentrations as an input to the PD models. This PBPK linked PD model was used to demonstrate a higher sensitivity to free heart concentrations of quinidine in Caucasian females, thereby providing a mechanistic understanding of a clinical observation. In general, permutations of certain conditions which potentially change PK and hence PD may not be amenable to the conduct of clinical studies but linking PBPK with PD provides an alternative method of investigating the potential impact of PK changes on PD.

  12. Applications of linking PBPK and PD models to predict the impact of genotypic variability, formulation differences, differences in target binding capacity and target site drug concentrations on drug responses and variability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chetty, Manoranjenni; Rose, Rachel H; Abduljalil, Khaled; Patel, Nikunjkumar; Lu, Gaohua; Cain, Theresa; Jamei, Masoud; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

    2014-01-01

    This study aimed to demonstrate the added value of integrating prior in vitro data and knowledge-rich physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models with pharmacodynamics (PDs) models. Four distinct applications that were developed and tested are presented here. PBPK models were developed for metoprolol using different CYP2D6 genotypes based on in vitro data. Application of the models for prediction of phenotypic differences in the pharmacokinetics (PKs) and PD compared favorably with clinical data, demonstrating that these differences can be predicted prior to the availability of such data from clinical trials. In the second case, PK and PD data for an immediate release formulation of nifedipine together with in vitro dissolution data for a controlled release (CR) formulation were used to predict the PK and PD of the CR. This approach can be useful to pharmaceutical scientists during formulation development. The operational model of agonism was used in the third application to describe the hypnotic effects of triazolam, and this was successfully extrapolated to zolpidem by changing only the drug related parameters from in vitro experiments. This PBPK modeling approach can be useful to developmental scientists who which to compare several drug candidates in the same therapeutic class. Finally, differences in QTc prolongation due to quinidine in Caucasian and Korean females were successfully predicted by the model using free heart concentrations as an input to the PD models. This PBPK linked PD model was used to demonstrate a higher sensitivity to free heart concentrations of quinidine in Caucasian females, thereby providing a mechanistic understanding of a clinical observation. In general, permutations of certain conditions which potentially change PK and hence PD may not be amenable to the conduct of clinical studies but linking PBPK with PD provides an alternative method of investigating the potential impact of PK changes on PD.

  13. Serum cortisol concentration with exploratory cut-off values do not predict the effects of hydrocortisone administration in children with low cardiac output after cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verweij, E J; Hogenbirk, Karin; Roest, Arno A W; van Brempt, Ronald; Hazekamp, Mark G; de Jonge, Evert

    2012-10-01

    Low cardiac output syndrome is common after paediatric cardiac surgery. Previous studies suggested that hydrocortisone administration may improve haemodynamic stability in case of resistant low cardiac output syndrome in critically ill children. This study was set up to test the hypothesis that the effects of hydrocortisone on haemodynamics in children with low cardiac output syndrome depend on the presence of (relative) adrenal insufficiency. A retrospective study was done on paediatric patients who received hydrocortisone when diagnosed with resistant low cardiac output syndrome after paediatric cardiac surgery in the period from 1 November 2005 to 31 December 2008. We studied the difference in effects of treatment with hydrocortisone administration between patients with adrenal insufficiency defined as an exploratory cut-off value of total cortisol of cortisol of ≥ 100 nmol/l. A total of 62 of patients were enrolled, meeting the inclusion criteria for low cardiac output syndrome. Thirty-two patients were assigned to Group 1 (cortisol concentration and those with normal baseline cortisol levels. A cortisol value using an exploratory cut-off value of 100 nmol/l for adrenal insufficiency should not be used as a criterion to treat these patients with hydrocortisone.

  14. Microsatellite Instability Predicts Clinical Outcome in Radiation-Treated Endometrioid Endometrial Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bilbao, Cristina; Lara, Pedro Carlos; Ramirez, Raquel; Henriquez-Hernandez, Luis Alberto; Rodriguez, German; Falcon, Orlando; Leon, Laureano; Perucho, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: To elucidate whether microsatellite instability (MSI) predicts clinical outcome in radiation-treated endometrioid endometrial cancer (EEC). Methods and Materials: A consecutive series of 93 patients with EEC treated with extrafascial hysterectomy and postoperative radiotherapy was studied. The median clinical follow-up of patients was 138 months, with a maximum of 232 months. Five quasimonomorphic mononucleotide markers (BAT-25, BAT-26, NR21, NR24, and NR27) were used for MSI classification. Results: Twenty-five patients (22%) were classified as MSI. Both in the whole series and in early stages (I and II), univariate analysis showed a significant association between MSI and poorer 10-year local disease-free survival, disease-free survival, and cancer-specific survival. In multivariate analysis, MSI was excluded from the final regression model in the whole series, but in early stages MSI provided additional significant predictive information independent of traditional prognostic and predictive factors (age, stage, grade, and vascular invasion) for disease-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 3.25, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-10.49; p = 0.048) and cancer-specific survival (HR 4.20, 95% CI 1.23-14.35; p = 0.022) and was marginally significant for local disease-free survival (HR 3.54, 95% CI 0.93-13.46; p = 0.064). Conclusions: These results suggest that MSI may predict radiotherapy response in early-stage EEC.

  15. Simple equations to predict concentric lower-body muscle power in older adults using the 30-second chair-rise test: a pilot study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wesley N Smith

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Wesley N Smith1, Gianluca Del Rossi1, Jessica B Adams1, KZ Abderlarahman2, Shihab A Asfour2, Bernard A Roos1,3,4,5, Joseph F Signorile1,31Department of Exercise and Sport Sciences,2Department of Industrial Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA; 3Geriatric Research, Education, and Clinical Center, Bruce W Carter Department of Veterans Affairs Medical Center, Miami, FL, USA; 4Departments of Medicine and Neurology, University of Miami Miller School of Medicine, Miami, FL, USA; 5Stein Gerontological Institute, Miami Jewish Health Systems, Miami, FL, USAAbstract: Although muscle power is an important factor affecting independence in older adults, there is no inexpensive or convenient test to quantify power in this population. Therefore, this pilot study examined whether regression equations for evaluating muscle power in older adults could be derived from a simple chair-rise test. We collected data from a 30-second chair-rise test performed by fourteen older adults (76 ± 7.19 years. Average (AP and peak (PP power values were computed using data from force-platform and high-speed motion analyses. Using each participant’s body mass and the number of chair rises performed during the first 20 seconds of the 30-second trial, we developed multivariate linear regression equations to predict AP and PP. The values computed using these equations showed a significant linear correlation with the values derived from our force-platform and high-speed motion analyses (AP: R = 0.89; PP: R = 0.90; P < 0.01. Our results indicate that lower-body muscle power in fit older adults can be accurately evaluated using the data from the initial 20 seconds of a simple 30-second chair-rise test, which requires no special equipment, preparation, or setting.Keywords: instrumental activity of daily living, clinical test, elderly, chair-stand test, leg power

  16. Pre-Antiretroviral Therapy Serum Selenium Concentrations Predict WHO Stages 3, 4 or Death but not Virologic Failure Post-Antiretroviral Therapy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rupak Shivakoti

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available A case-cohort study, within a multi-country trial of antiretroviral therapy (ART efficacy (Prospective Evaluation of Antiretrovirals in Resource Limited Settings (PEARLS, was conducted to determine if pre-ART serum selenium deficiency is independently associated with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV disease progression after ART initiation. Cases were HIV-1 infected adults with either clinical failure (incident World Health Organization (WHO stage 3, 4 or death by 96 weeks or virologic failure by 24 months. Risk factors for serum selenium deficiency (<85 μg/L pre-ART and its association with outcomes were examined. Median serum selenium concentration was 82.04 μg/L (Interquartile range (IQR: 57.28–99.89 and serum selenium deficiency was 53%, varying widely by country from 0% to 100%. In multivariable models, risk factors for serum selenium deficiency were country, previous tuberculosis, anemia, and elevated C-reactive protein. Serum selenium deficiency was not associated with either clinical failure or virologic failure in multivariable models. However, relative to people in the third quartile (74.86–95.10 μg/L of serum selenium, we observed increased hazards (adjusted hazards ratio (HR: 3.50; 95% confidence intervals (CI: 1.30–9.42 of clinical failure but not virologic failure for people in the highest quartile. If future studies confirm this relationship of high serum selenium with increased clinical failure, a cautious approach to selenium supplementation might be needed, especially in HIV-infected populations with sufficient or unknown levels of selenium.

  17. Long-term prospective longitudinal evaluation of emotional distress and quality of life in cervical cancer patients who remained disease-free 2-years from diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mantegna, Giovanna; Petrillo, Marco; Fuoco, Gilda; Venditti, Laura; Terzano, Serena; Anchora, Luigi Pedone; Scambia, Giovanni; Ferrandina, Gabriella

    2013-03-18

    A long-term prospective assessment of QoL in cervical cancer patients is still lacking. Here, we provide the first 2-years prospective, longitudinal study evaluating emotional distress and QoL in early stage (ECC) and locally advanced (LACC) cervical cancer patients who remained disease-free 2-years from diagnosis. The questionnaires: Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), Global Health Status items of EORTC QLQ-C30 (GHS), and EORTC QLQ-CX24 (CX24) have been administered by a dedicated team of psycho-oncologists, administered at baseline, and after 3, 6, 12 and 24 months from surgery The Generalized Linear Model for repeated measure was used to analyze modifications of QoL measures over time. In both groups, an early reduction of the percentage of patients with anxiety levels ≥11 was observed at the 3-month evaluation (ECC: 25.7% at baseline Vs 14.7% after 3 months, p value=0.001; LACC: 22.2% at baseline Vs 15.4% after 3 months, p value=0.001). Despite this favorable trend, after 2 years from diagnosis, 11.9% of ECC and 15.6% of LACC patients still showed an anxiety score ≥11. No significant changes over time were observed in term of Depression levels. Focusing on QoL issues, mean GHS and Sexual Activity scores showed an improvement over time in both groups compared to baseline (GHS: 5.7% difference for ECC, p value=0.001, and 11.0% in LACC, p value=0.001; SXA: 13.9% difference for ECC, p value=0.001; and 6.1% in LACC, p value=0.008). On the other hand, Body Image mean scores were significantly impaired by chemoradiation administration in LACC patients, without long-term recovery (7.5% difference, p value=0.001). Finally, in both groups, lymphedema (LY) and menopausal symptoms (MS) showed an early worsening which persisted 2-year after surgery (LY: 19.5% difference for ECC, p value=0.014, and 27.3% in LACC, p value=0.001; MS: 14.4% difference for ECC, p value=0.004, and 16.0% in LACC, p value=0.002). Despite a significant improvement over time, elevated

  18. Concentrating Radioactivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrmann, Richard A.

    1974-01-01

    By concentrating radioactivity contained on luminous dials, a teacher can make a high reading source for classroom experiments on radiation. The preparation of the source and its uses are described. (DT)

  19. Ovarian Suppression With Triptorelin During Adjuvant Breast Cancer Chemotherapy and Long-term Ovarian Function, Pregnancies, and Disease-Free Survival: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambertini, Matteo; Boni, Luca; Michelotti, Andrea; Gamucci, Teresa; Scotto, Tiziana; Gori, Stefania; Giordano, Monica; Garrone, Ornella; Levaggi, Alessia; Poggio, Francesca; Giraudi, Sara; Bighin, Claudia; Vecchio, Carlo; Sertoli, Mario Roberto; Pronzato, Paolo; Del Mastro, Lucia

    Whether the administration of luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone analogues (LHRHa) during chemotherapy is a reliable strategy to preserve ovarian function is controversial owing to both the lack of data on long-term ovarian function and pregnancies and the safety concerns about the potential negative interactions between endocrine therapy and chemotherapy. To evaluate long-term results of LHRHa-induced ovarian suppression during breast cancer chemotherapy. Parallel, randomized, open-label, phase 3 superiority trial conducted at 16 Italian sites. Between October 2003 and January 2008, 281 premenopausal women with stage I to III hormone receptor-positive or hormone receptor-negative breast cancer were enrolled. Last annual follow-up was June 3, 2014. Patients were randomized to receive adjuvant or neoadjuvant chemotherapy alone (control group) or chemotherapy plus triptorelin (LHRHa group). The primary planned end point was incidence of chemotherapy-induced early menopause. Post hoc end points were long-term ovarian function (evaluated by yearly assessment of menstrual activity and defined as resumed by the occurrence of at least 1 menstrual cycle), pregnancies, and disease-free survival (DFS). A total of 281 women (median age, 39 [range, 24-45] years) were randomized. Median follow-up was 7.3 years (interquartile range, 6.3-8.2 years). The 5-year cumulative incidence estimate of menstrual resumption was 72.6% (95% CI, 65.7%-80.3%) among the 148 patients in the LHRHa group and 64.0% (95% CI, 56.2%-72.8%) among the 133 patients in the control group (hazard ratio [HR], 1.28 [95% CI, 0.98-1.68]; P = .07; age-adjusted HR, 1.48 [95% CI, 1.12-1.95]; P = .006). Eight pregnancies (5-year cumulative incidence estimate of pregnancy, 2.1% [95% CI, 0.7%-6.3%]) occurred in the LHRHa group and 3 (5-year cumulative incidence estimate of pregnancy, 1.6% [95% CI, 0.4%-6.2%]) in the control group (HR, 2.56 [95% CI, 0.68-9.60]; P = .14; age-adjusted HR, 2.40 [95% CI, 0

  20. Impact of the Ki-67 labeling index and p53 expression status on disease-free survival in pT1 urothelial carcinoma of the bladder.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vetterlein, Malte W; Roschinski, Julia; Gild, Philipp; Marks, Phillip; Soave, Armin; Doh, Ousman; Isbarn, Hendrik; Höppner, Wolfgang; Wagner, Walter; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Brausi, Maurizio; Büscheck, Franziska; Sauter, Guido; Fisch, Margit; Rink, Michael

    2017-12-01

    The identification of protein biomarkers to guide treatment decisions regarding adjuvant therapies for high-risk non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) has been of increasing interest. Evidence of the impact of tumor suppressor gene product p53 and cell proliferation marker Ki-67 on oncologic outcomes in bladder cancer patients at highest risk of recurrence and progression is partially contradictory. We sought to mirror contemporary expression patterns of p53 and Ki-67 in a select cohort of patients with pT1 bladder cancer. Patients from four Northern German institutions with a primary diagnosis of pT1 bladder cancer between 2009 and 2016 and complete data regarding p53 or Ki-67 expression status were included for final analyses. Baseline patient characteristics (age, gender, age-adjusted Charlson comorbidity index) and tumor characteristics [diagnostic sequence, tumor focality, concomitant carcinoma in situ, 1973 World Health Organization (WHO) grading, lymphovascular invasion, adjuvant instillation therapy] were abstracted by retrospective chart review. Immunohistochemistry for detection of p53 and Ki-67 expression was performed according to standardized protocols. Microscopic analyses were performed by central pathologic review. First, we compared patients with positive vs. negative p53 expression and Ki-67 labeling index [>40% vs. ≤40%; cutoffs based on best discriminative ability in univariable Cox regression analysis with disease-free survival (DFS) as endpoint] with regard to baseline and tumor characteristics. Second, we evaluated the effect of biomarker positivity on DFS by plotting univariable Kaplan-Meier curves and performing uni- and multivariable Cox regression analyses. Of 102 patients with complete information on p53 status, 44 (43.1%) were p53 positive, and they more often harbored concomitant carcinoma in situ (50.0% vs. 27.6%; P=0.032) and 1973 WHO grade 3 (97.7% vs. 69.0%; P=0.001) compared to their p53 negative counterparts. Of 79

  1. Qigong exercise with concentration predicts increased health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jouper, John; Hassmén, Peter; Johansson, Mattias

    2006-01-01

    Regular physical activity has many positive health effects. Despite this, approximately 50% of all adults are not exercising enough to enjoy better health and may, therefore, need an alternative to vigorous physical exercise. Qigong offers a gentle way to exercise the body. A questionnaire sample of 253 participants was collected and correlations with the variable health-now were analyzed. Results showed that health-now was positively correlated with number of completed qigong courses (p exercise thereby seems to offer a viable alternative to other more vigorous physical activities when wellness is the primary goal. When interpreted using self-determination theory, qigong seems to satisfy needs related to autonomy, competence and relatedness, thereby, primarily attracting individuals who are intrinsically motivated.

  2. Model predictions of ambient pollution concentration | Olaniyan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The results show that the emission loads of the pollutants associated with the use of industrial boiler and power generating plant are in decreasing order of magnitude as NOx > CO > TSP > SO2 > VOC > SO,sub>3 and NOx > TSP > CO > HC > SO2 respectively. The emission load of SO2 is 74.6% in power generating plant, ...

  3. Development of a high-throughput in vitro assay using a novel Caco-2/rat hepatocyte system for the prediction of oral plasma area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) in rats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, K-C; Li, Cheng; Hsieh, Yunsheng; Montgomery, Diana; Liu, Tongtong; White, Ronald E

    2006-01-01

    Previously, we have shown that a novel Caco-2/human hepatocyte system is a useful model for the prediction of oral bioavailability in humans. In this study, we attempted to use a similar system in a high-throughput screening mode for the selection of new compound entities (NCE) in drug discovery. A total of 72 compounds randomly selected from three different chemotypes were dosed orally in rats. In vivo plasma area under the concentration versus time curve (AUC) from 0-6 h of the parent compound was determined. The same compounds were also tested in the Caco-2/rat hepatocyte system. In vitro AUC from 0-3 h in the Caco-2 rat hepatocyte system was determined. The predictive usefulness of the Caco-2/rat hepatocyte system was evaluated by comparing the in vivo plasma AUC and the in vitro AUC. Linear regression analysis showed a reasonable correlation (R2 = 0.5) between the in vivo AUC and the in vitro AUC. Using 0.4 microM h in vivo AUC as a cut-off, compounds were categorized as either low or high AUC. The in vitro AUC successfully matched the corresponding in vivo category for sixty-three out of seventy-two compounds. The results presented in this study suggest that the Caco-2/rat hepatocyte system may be used as a high-throughput screen in drug discovery for pharmacokinetic behaviors of compounds in rats.

  4. Possibility of Predicting Serotonin Transporter Occupancy From the In Vitro Inhibition Constant for Serotonin Transporter, the Clinically Relevant Plasma Concentration of Unbound Drugs, and Their Profiles for Substrates of Transporters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yahata, Masahiro; Chiba, Koji; Watanabe, Takao; Sugiyama, Yuichi

    2017-09-01

    Accurate prediction of target occupancy facilitates central nervous system drug development. In this review, we discuss the predictability of serotonin transporter (SERT) occupancy in human brain estimated from in vitro K i values for human SERT and plasma concentrations of unbound drug (C u,plasma ), as well as the impact of drug transporters in the blood-brain barrier. First, the geometric means of in vitro K i values were compared with the means of in vivo K i values (K i,u,plasma ) which were calculated as C u,plasma values at 50% occupancy of SERT obtained from previous clinical positron emission tomography/single photon emission computed tomography imaging studies for 6 selective serotonin transporter reuptake inhibitors and 3 serotonin norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors. The in vitro K i values for 7 drugs were comparable to their in vivo K i,u,plasma values within 3-fold difference. SERT occupancy was overestimated for 5 drugs (P-glycoprotein substrates) and underestimated for 2 drugs (presumably uptake transporter substrates, although no evidence exists as yet). In conclusion, prediction of human SERT occupancy from in vitro K i values and C u,plasma was successful for drugs that are not transporter substrates and will become possible in future even for transporter substrates, once the transporter activities will be accurately estimated from in vitro experiments. Copyright © 2017 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Chemical disease-free survival in localized carcinoma of prostate treated with external beam irradiation: comparison of American Society of Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology Consensus or 1 ng/mL as endpoint

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez, Carlos A.; Michalski, Jeff M.; Lockett, Mary Ann

    2001-01-01

    Purpose: To compare postirradiation biochemical disease-free survival using the American Society of Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology (ASTRO) Consensus or elevation of postirradiation prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level beyond 1 ng/mL as an endpoint and correlate chemical failure with subsequent appearance of clinically detected local recurrence or distant metastasis. Methods and Materials: Records of 466 patients with histologically confirmed adenocarcinoma of the prostate treated with irradiation alone between January 1987 and December 1995 were analyzed; 339 patients were treated with bilateral 120 deg. arc rotation and, starting in 1992, 117 with three-dimensional conformal irradiation. Doses were 68-77 Gy in 1.8 to 2 Gy daily fractions. Minimum follow-up is 4 years (mean, 5.5 years; maximum, 9.6 years). A chemical failure was recorded using the ASTRO Consensus or when postirradiation PSA level exceeded 1 ng/mL at any time. Clinical failures were determined by rectal examination, radiographic studies, and, when clinically indicated, biopsy. Results: Six-year chemical disease-free survival rates using the ASTRO Consensus according to pretreatment PSA level for T1 tumors were: ≤4 ng/mL, 100%; 4.1-20 ng/mL, 80%; and >20 ng/mL, 50%. For T2 tumors the rates were: ≤4 ng/mL, 91%; 4.1-10 ng/mL, 81%; 10.1-20 ng/mL, 55%; 20.1-40 ng/mL, 63%; and >40 ng/mL, 46%. When postirradiation PSA levels higher than 1 ng/mL were used, the corresponding 6-year chemical disease-free survival rates for T1 tumors were 92% for pretreatment PSA levels of ≤4 ng/mL, 58-60% for levels of 4.1-20 ng/mL, and 30% for levels >20 ng/mL. For T2 tumors, the 6-year chemical disease-free survival rates were 78% in patients with pretreatment PSA levels of 4-10 ng/mL, 45% for 10.1-40 ng/mL, and 25% for >40 ng/mL. Of 167 patients with T1 tumors, 30 (18%) developed a chemical failure, 97% within 5 years from completion of radiation therapy; no patient has developed a local recurrence or distant

  6. Predicting adhesion and biofilm formation boundaries on stainless steel surfaces by five Salmonella enterica strains belonging to different serovars as a function of pH, temperature and NaCl concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moraes, Juliana O; Cruz, Ellen A; Souza, Enio G F; Oliveira, Tereza C M; Alvarenga, Verônica O; Peña, Wilmer E L; Sant'Ana, Anderson S; Magnani, Marciane

    2018-05-26

    This study aimed to assess the capability of 97 epidemic S. enterica strains belonging to 18 serovars to form biofilm. Five strains characterized as strong biofilm-producers, belonging to distinct serovars (S. Enteritidis 132, S. Infantis 176, S. Typhimurium 177, S. Heidelberg 281 and S. Corvallis 297) were assayed for adhesion/biofilm formation on stainless steel surfaces. The experiments were conducted in different combinations of NaCl (0, 2, 4, 5, 6, 8 and 10% w/v), pH (4, 5, 6 and 7) and temperatures (8 °C, 12 °C, 20 °C and 35 °C). Only adhesion was assumed to occur when S. enterica counts were ≥3 and biofilm formation was defined as when the counts were ≥5 log CFU/cm 2 . The binary responses were used to develop models to predict the probability of adhesion/biofilm formation on stainless steel surfaces by five strains belonging to different S. enterica serovars. A total of 99% (96/97) of the tested S. enterica strains were characterized as biofilm-producers in the microtiter plate assays. The ability to form biofilm varied (P biofilm-producers, 21% (20/96), 45% (43/96), and 35% (34/96) were weak, moderate and strong biofilm-producers, respectively. The capability for adhesion/biofilm formation on stainless steel surfaces under the experimental conditions studied varied among the strains studied, and distinct secondary models were obtained to describe the behavior of the five S. enterica tested. All strains showed adhesion at pH 4 up to 4% of NaCl and at 20 °C and 35 °C. The probability of adhesion decreased when NaCl concentrations were >8% and at 8 °C, as well as in pH values ≤ 5 and NaCl concentrations > 6%, for all tested strains. At pH 7 and 6, biofilm formation for S. Enteritidis, S. Infantis, S. Typhimurium, S. Heidelberg was observed up to 6% of NaCl at 35 °C and 20 °C. The predicted boundaries for adhesion were pH values biofilm formation, the predicted boundaries were pH values biofilm formation

  7. Influence of complete administration of adjuvant chemotherapy cycles on overall and disease-free survival in locally advanced rectal cancer: post hoc analysis of a randomized, multicenter, non-inferiority, phase 3 trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandra-Petrescu, Flavius; Herrle, Florian; Burkholder, Iris; Kienle, Peter; Hofheinz, Ralf-Dieter

    2018-04-03

    A randomized trial demonstrated that capecitabine is at least as effective as fluorouracil in the adjuvant treatment of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. However, not all patients receive all planned cycles of chemotherapy. Therefore it is of interest how complete or partial administration of chemotherapy influences oncological outcome. A post hoc analysis of a trial with 401 randomized patients, nine being excluded because of missing data, was performed. 392 patients (197 - capecitabine, 195 - fluorouracil) could be analyzed regarding the number of administered adjuvant chemotherapy cycles. In the subgroup of 361 patients with an overall survival of at least six months, five-year overall and disease-free survival were analyzed in respect to completion (complete vs. incomplete) of chemotherapy cycles. Survival rates and curves were calculated and compared using the log-rank test. The effect of completion of chemotherapy was adjusted for relevant confounding factors. Two hundred fifty-one (64.0%) of analyzed patients received all postoperative scheduled cycles. Five-year overall survival was significantly better in these patients compared to the incomplete group (76.0 vs. 60.6%, p cycles. Five-year overall survival was also significantly better than in the incomplete group (76.0 vs. 66.4%, p = 0.0073). Five-year disease free survival was numerically better (64.9 vs. 58.7%, p = 0.0646; HR [not all cycles vs. all cycles] = 1.42 95% CI: [0.98, 2.07]). Cox regression models show a non-significant better OS (p = 0.061) and DFS (p = 0.083), if chemotherapy cycles were administered completely. Complete administration of chemotherapy cycles was associated with improved five-year overall and disease-free survival in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer.

  8. NADH-Cytochrome b5 Reductase 3 Promotes Colonization and Metastasis Formation and Is a Prognostic Marker of Disease-Free and Overall Survival in Estrogen Receptor-Negative Breast Cancer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Rikke R; Leth-Larsen, Rikke; Caterino, Tina Di

    2015-01-01

    (NRH2). The altered expression levels were validated at the protein and transcriptional levels, and analysis of breast cancer biopsies from two cohorts of patients demonstrated a significant correlation between high CYB5R3 expression and poor disease-free and overall survival in patients with estrogen...... receptor-negative tumors (DFS: p = .02, OS: p = .04). CYB5R3 gene knock-down using siRNA in metastasizing cells led to significantly decreased tumor burden in lungs when injected intravenously in immunodeficient mice. The cellular effects of CYB5R3 knock-down showed signaling alterations associated...

  9. Ultra Low Concentration Adsorption Equilibria

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mahle, John J; Buettner, Leonard C; LeVan, M. D; Schindler, Bryan J

    2006-01-01

    .... Specifically this work focuses on novel experimental and modeling methods to characterize and predict at ultra-low chemical vapor concentrations the protection afforded by adsorption-based vapor filtration systems...

  10. Adjuvant treatment for resected rectal cancer: impact of standard and intensified postoperative chemotherapy on disease-free survival in patients undergoing preoperative chemoradiation-a propensity score-matched analysis of an observational database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garlipp, Benjamin; Ptok, Henry; Benedix, Frank; Otto, Ronny; Popp, Felix; Ridwelski, Karsten; Gastinger, Ingo; Benckert, Christoph; Lippert, Hans; Bruns, Christiane

    2016-12-01

    Adjuvant chemotherapy for resected rectal cancer is widely used. However, studies on adjuvant treatment following neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and total mesorectal excision (TME) have yielded conflicting results. Recent studies have focused on adding oxaliplatin to both preoperative and postoperative therapy, making it difficult to assess the impact of adjuvant oxaliplatin alone. This study was aimed at determining the impact of (i) any adjuvant treatment and (ii) oxaliplatin-containing adjuvant treatment on disease-free survival in CRT-pretreated, R0-resected rectal cancer patients. Patients undergoing R0 TME following 5-fluorouracil (5FU)-only-based CRT between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2010, were selected from a nationwide registry. After propensity score matching (PSM), comparison of disease-free survival (DFS) using Kaplan-Meier analysis and log-rank test was performed in (i) patients receiving no vs. any adjuvant treatment and (ii) patients treated with adjuvant 5FU/capecitabine without vs. with oxaliplatin. Out of 1497 patients, 520 matched pairs were generated for analysis of no vs. any adjuvant treatment. Mean DFS was significantly prolonged with adjuvant treatment (81.8 ± 2.06 vs. 70.1 ± 3.02 months, p rectal cancer patients treated with neoadjuvant CRT and TME surgery under routine conditions, adjuvant chemotherapy significantly improved DFS. No benefit was observed for the addition of oxaliplatin to adjuvant chemotherapy in this setting.

  11. Applying adverse outcome pathways and species sensitivity-weighted distribution to predicted-no-effect concentration derivation and quantitative ecological risk assessment for bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol in aquatic environments: A case study on Tianjin City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ying; Na, Guangshui; Zong, Humin; Ma, Xindong; Yang, Xianhai; Mu, Jingli; Wang, Lijun; Lin, Zhongsheng; Zhang, Zhifeng; Wang, Juying; Zhao, Jinsong

    2018-02-01

    Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) are a novel concept that effectively considers the toxic modes of action and guides the ecological risk assessment of chemicals. To better use toxicity data including biochemical or molecular responses and mechanistic data, we further developed a species sensitivity-weighted distribution (SSWD) method for bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol. Their aquatic predicted-no-effect concentrations (PNECs) were derived using the log-normal statistical extrapolation method. We calculated aquatic PNECs of bisphenol A and 4-nonylphenol with values of 4.01 and 0.721 µg/L, respectively. The ecological risk of each chemical in different aquatic environments near Tianjin, China, a coastal municipality along the Bohai Sea, was characterized by hazard quotient and probabilistic risk quotient assessment techniques. Hazard quotients of 7.02 and 5.99 at 2 municipal sewage sites using all of the endpoints were observed for 4-nonylphenol, which indicated high ecological risks posed by 4-nonylphenol to aquatic organisms, especially endocrine-disrupting effects. Moreover, a high ecological risk of 4-nonylphenol was indicated based on the probabilistic risk quotient method. The present results show that combining the SSWD method and the AOP concept could better protect aquatic organisms from adverse effects such as endocrine disruption and could decrease uncertainty in ecological risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2018;37:551-562. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  12. Maximum phytoplankton concentrations in the sea

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jackson, G.A.; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    A simplification of plankton dynamics using coagulation theory provides predictions of the maximum algal concentration sustainable in aquatic systems. These predictions have previously been tested successfully against results from iron fertilization experiments. We extend the test to data collect...

  13. Meta-analysis of CDKN2A methylation to find its role in prostate cancer development and progression, and also to find the effect of CDKN2A expression on disease-free survival (PRISMA).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cao, Zipei; Wei, Lijuan; Zhu, Weizhi; Yao, Xuping

    2018-03-01

    Reduction of cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2A (CDKN2A) (p16 and p14) expression through DNA methylation has been reported in prostate cancer (PCa). This meta-analysis was conducted to assess the difference of p16 and p14 methylation between PCa and different histological types of nonmalignant controls and the correlation of p16 or p14 methylation with clinicopathological features of PCa. According to the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) statement criteria, articles were searched in PubMed, Embase, EBSCO, Wanfang, and CNKI databases. The strength of correlation was calculated by the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Trial sequential analysis (TSA) was used to estimate the required population information for significant results. A total of 20 studies published from 1997 to 2017 were identified in this meta-analysis, including 1140 PCa patients and 530 cases without cancer. Only p16 methylation in PCa was significantly higher than in benign prostatic lesions (OR = 4.72, P = .011), but had a similar level in PCa and adjacent tissues or high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasias (HGPIN). TSA revealed that this analysis on p16 methylation is a false positive result in cancer versus benign prostatic lesions (the estimated required information size of 5116 participants). p16 methylation was not correlated with PCa in the urine and blood. Besides, p16 methylation was not linked to clinical stage, prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, and Gleason score (GS) of patients with PCa. p14 methylation was not correlated with PCa in tissue and urine samples. No correlation was observed between p14 methylation and clinical stage or GS. CDKN2A mutation and copy number alteration were not associated with prognosis of PCa in overall survival and disease-free survival. CDKN2A expression was not correlated with the prognosis of PCa in overall survival (492 cases) (P > .1

  14. Improved Metastasis- and Disease-Free Survival With Preoperative Sequential Short-Course Radiation Therapy and FOLFOX Chemotherapy for Rectal Cancer Compared With Neoadjuvant Long-Course Chemoradiotherapy: Results of a Matched Pair Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markovina, Stephanie; Youssef, Fady; Roy, Amit; Aggarwal, Sonya; Khwaja, Shariq; DeWees, Todd; Tan, Benjamin; Hunt, Steven; Myerson, Robert J; Chang, Daniel T; Parikh, Parag J; Olsen, Jeffrey R

    2017-10-01

    To compare treatment and toxicity outcomes between a phase 2 institutional trial of near total neoadjuvant therapy (nTNT) for locally advanced rectal cancer and a similar historical control cohort treated at Washington University in St. Louis with the current US standard of care, defined as neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT), total mesorectal excision (TME), and adjuvant FOLFOX chemotherapy; to expand the comparison to an additional institution, patients treated with similar NCRT at Stanford University were included. Sixty-nine patients with cT3-4N0-2M0 rectal adenocarcinoma enrolled on the Washington University in St. Louis phase 2 study of nTNT were included for analysis. Patients treated at the same institution with conventional NCRT and adjuvant FOLFOX were matched for exact cTNM stage. Forty-one patients treated with NCRT at Stanford University were included in a second analysis. Kaplan-Meier analysis with log-rank test was used to compare local control, distant metastasis-free survival, disease-free survival, and overall survival. Median follow-up was 49 and 54 months for nTNT and NCRT, respectively. Pathologic complete response and T-downstaging rates were 28% versus 16% (P=.21) and 75% versus 41% (P<.001) in the nTNT and NCRT cohorts, respectively. Three-year disease-free survival (85% vs 68%, P=.032) was significantly better in the nTNT group. Actuarial 3-year local control (92% vs 96%, P=.36) and overall survival (96% vs 88%, P=.67) were similar. The Stanford cohort had significantly lower clinical stage. After controlling for clinical stage, age, tumor location, institution, and number of chemotherapy cycles, nTNT treatment remained significantly associated with lower risk of recurrence (P=.006). Patients treated with nTNT had higher T-downstaging and superior distant metastasis-free survival and disease-free survival compared with conventional NCRT when matched for tumor location and exact cTNM stage. Near total neoadjuvant therapy remained a

  15. Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of bovine brucellosis surveillance in a disease-free country using stochastic scenario tree modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hénaux, Viviane; Calavas, Didier

    2017-01-01

    Surveillance systems of exotic infectious diseases aim to ensure transparency about the country-specific animal disease situation (i.e. demonstrate disease freedom) and to identify any introductions. In a context of decreasing resources, evaluation of surveillance efficiency is essential to help stakeholders make relevant decisions about prioritization of measures and funding allocation. This study evaluated the efficiency (sensitivity related to cost) of the French bovine brucellosis surveillance system using stochastic scenario tree models. Cattle herds were categorized into three risk groups based on the annual number of purchases, given that trading is considered as the main route of brucellosis introduction in cattle herds. The sensitivity in detecting the disease and the costs of the current surveillance system, which includes clinical (abortion) surveillance, programmed serological testing and introduction controls, were compared to those of 19 alternative surveillance scenarios. Surveillance costs included veterinary fees and laboratory analyses. The sensitivity over a year of the current surveillance system was predicted to be 91±7% at a design prevalence of 0.01% for a total cost of 14.9±1.8 million €. Several alternative surveillance scenarios, based on clinical surveillance and random or risk-based serological screening in a sample (20%) of the population, were predicted to be at least as sensitive but for a lower cost. Such changes would reduce whole surveillance costs by 20 to 61% annually, and the costs for farmers only would be decreased from about 12.0 million € presently to 5.3-9.0 million € (i.e. 25-56% decrease). Besides, fostering the evolution of the surveillance system in one of these directions would be in agreement with the European regulations and farmers perceptions on brucellosis risk and surveillance.

  16. Evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of bovine brucellosis surveillance in a disease-free country using stochastic scenario tree modelling.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane Hénaux

    Full Text Available Surveillance systems of exotic infectious diseases aim to ensure transparency about the country-specific animal disease situation (i.e. demonstrate disease freedom and to identify any introductions. In a context of decreasing resources, evaluation of surveillance efficiency is essential to help stakeholders make relevant decisions about prioritization of measures and funding allocation. This study evaluated the efficiency (sensitivity related to cost of the French bovine brucellosis surveillance system using stochastic scenario tree models. Cattle herds were categorized into three risk groups based on the annual number of purchases, given that trading is considered as the main route of brucellosis introduction in cattle herds. The sensitivity in detecting the disease and the costs of the current surveillance system, which includes clinical (abortion surveillance, programmed serological testing and introduction controls, were compared to those of 19 alternative surveillance scenarios. Surveillance costs included veterinary fees and laboratory analyses. The sensitivity over a year of the current surveillance system was predicted to be 91±7% at a design prevalence of 0.01% for a total cost of 14.9±1.8 million €. Several alternative surveillance scenarios, based on clinical surveillance and random or risk-based serological screening in a sample (20% of the population, were predicted to be at least as sensitive but for a lower cost. Such changes would reduce whole surveillance costs by 20 to 61% annually, and the costs for farmers only would be decreased from about 12.0 million € presently to 5.3-9.0 million € (i.e. 25-56% decrease. Besides, fostering the evolution of the surveillance system in one of these directions would be in agreement with the European regulations and farmers perceptions on brucellosis risk and surveillance.

  17. The Prognostic Nutritional Index Predicts Survival and Identifies Aggressiveness of Gastric Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eo, Wan Kyu; Chang, Hye Jung; Suh, Jungho; Ahn, Jin; Shin, Jeong; Hur, Joon-Young; Kim, Gou Young; Lee, Sookyung; Park, Sora; Lee, Sanghun

    2015-01-01

    Nutritional status has been associated with long-term outcomes in cancer patients. The prognostic nutritional index (PNI) is calculated by serum albumin concentration and absolute lymphocyte count, and it may be a surrogate biomarker for nutritional status and possibly predicts overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer. We evaluated the value of the PNI as a predictor for disease-free survival (DFS) in addition to OS in a cohort of 314 gastric cancer patients who underwent curative surgical resection. There were 77 patients in PNI-low group (PNI ≤ 47.3) and 237 patients in PNI-high group (PNI > 47.3). With a median follow-up of 36.5 mo, 5-yr DFS rates in PNI-low group and PNI-high group were 63.5% and 83.6% and 5-yr OS rates in PNI-low group and PNI-high group were 63.5% and 88.4%, respectively (DFS, P < 0.0001; OS, P < 0.0001). In the multivariate analysis, the only predictors for DFS were PNI, tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, and perineural invasion, whereas the only predictors for OS were PNI, age, TNM stage, and perineural invasion. In addition, the PNI was independent of various inflammatory markers. In conclusion, the PNI is an independent prognostic factor for both DFS and OS, and provides additional prognostic information beyond pathologic parameters.

  18. Changes in biochemical disease-free survival rates as a result of adoption of the consensus conference definition in patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated with external-beam radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ennis, Ronald D.; Malyszko, Bozena K.; Heitjan, Daniel F.; Rubin, Mark A.; O'Toole, Kathleen M.; Schiff, Peter B.

    1998-01-01

    .03) with patients with lower-grade tumors being more likely to change status (Gleason 2-6: 15% vs. Gleason 7-10: 1%). On the other hand, 'false failures', compared to true failures, had a lower mean PSA nadir (1.7 ng/ml vs. 7.0 ng/ml, p < 0.001) and significantly smaller mean increases in PSA (1st increase: 0.6 ng/ml vs. 3.4 ng/ml, p = 0.006; 2nd increase: 0.4 ng/ml vs. 4.8 ng/ml, p = 0.002). In 85% (17 of 20) of these patients, at least one of the increases was ≤0.3 ng/ml compared with 44% (42 of 96) of the true failures (p = 0.0008). CC-II resulted in a small decrease in BDFS rates compared with CC, but did not affect the overall difference between CC and CPMC. A modified definition that defines failure as two consecutive increases in PSA over 3 months, with a final value greater than 1.0 ng/ml and each increase being at least 0.3 ng/ml, or three consecutive increases would result in a 'false' failure rate of only 3% (3 of 99) and identify 56% (54 of 96) of the true failures after only two PSA increases. Conclusion: The CPMC definition of two PSA increases can falsely identify patients as failures, particularly if the increases in PSA are small (i.e., ≤ 0.3 ng/ml). The CC definition requiring three increases in PSA can falsely identify patients as disease-free when the time to failure is long relative to the follow-up time. We propose a that a definition that combines aspects of both definitions (two consecutive increases in PSA over 3 months, with a final value greater than 1.0 ng/ml and each increase being at least 0.3 ng/ml, or three consecutive increases) may be a better definition of biochemical failure

  19. Scattering Solar Thermal Concentrators

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Giebink, Noel C. [Pennsylvania State Univ., State College, PA (United States)

    2015-01-31

    This program set out to explore a scattering-based approach to concentrate sunlight with the aim of improving collector field reliability and of eliminating wind loading and gross mechanical movement through the use of a stationary collection optic. The approach is based on scattering sunlight from the focal point of a fixed collection optic into the confined modes of a sliding planar waveguide, where it is transported to stationary tubular heat transfer elements located at the edges. Optical design for the first stage of solar concentration, which entails focusing sunlight within a plane over a wide range of incidence angles (>120 degree full field of view) at fixed tilt, led to the development of a new, folded-path collection optic that dramatically out-performs the current state-of-the-art in scattering concentration. Rigorous optical simulation and experimental testing of this collection optic have validated its performance. In the course of this work, we also identified an opportunity for concentrating photovoltaics involving the use of high efficiency microcells made in collaboration with partners at the University of Illinois. This opportunity exploited the same collection optic design as used for the scattering solar thermal concentrator and was therefore pursued in parallel. This system was experimentally demonstrated to achieve >200x optical concentration with >70% optical efficiency over a full day by tracking with <1 cm of lateral movement at fixed latitude tilt. The entire scattering concentrator waveguide optical system has been simulated, tested, and assembled at small scale to verify ray tracing models. These models were subsequently used to predict the full system optical performance at larger, deployment scale ranging up to >1 meter aperture width. Simulations at an aperture widths less than approximately 0.5 m with geometric gains ~100x predict an overall optical efficiency in the range 60-70% for angles up to 50 degrees from normal. However, the

  20. SPARC, FOXP3, CD8 and CD45 correlation with disease recurrence and long-term disease-free survival in colorectal cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angela Chew

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: SPARC is a matricellular protein involved in tissue remodelling, cell migration and angiogenesis, while forkhead box P3 (FOXP3 protein functions as a transcription factor involved in immune cell regulation. Both SPARC and FOXP3 can play an anti-tumorigenic role in cancer progression. The aim was to determine if SPARC, FOXP3, CD8 and CD45RO expression levels are associated with colorectal cancer (CRC stage, disease outcome and long-term cancer-specific survival (CSS in stage II and III CRC. METHODS AND FINDINGS: SPARC expression was initially assessed in 120 paired normal and stage I-IV CRCs. Subsequently, approximately 1000 paired patient samples of stage II or III CRCs in tissue microarrays were stained for SPARC, FOXP3, CD8 or CD45RO. Proportional hazards modelling assessed correlations between these markers and clinicopathological data, including disease outcome and cancer specific survival (CSS. Both SPARC and FOXP3 expression were significantly greater in CRC than normal colon (p<0.0001. High SPARC expression correlated with good disease outcome (≥60 mths without disease recurrence, p = 0.0039 and better long-term CSS in stage II CRC (<0.0001. In stage III CRC, high SPARC expression correlated with better long-term CSS (p<0.0001 and less adjuvant chemotherapy use (p = 0.01. High FOXP3 correlated with a good disease outcome, better long-term CSS and less adjuvant chemotherapy use in stage II (p<0.0037, <0.0001 and p = 0.04 respectively, but not in stage III CRC. High CD8 and CD45RO expression correlated with better disease outcome in stage II CRC, and better CSS, but the differences were not as marked as for SPARC and FOXP3. CONCLUSIONS: These data suggest that high SPARC and FOXP3 are associated with better disease outcome in stage II CRC and may be prognostic indicators of CSS. Further assessment of whether these markers predict patients at high risk of recurrence with stage II CRC and functional studies of these