WorldWideScience

Sample records for complex population dynamics

  1. Population and coherence dynamics in light harvesting complex II (LH2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Shu-Hao; Zhu, Jing; Kais, Sabre

    2012-08-28

    The electronic excitation population and coherence dynamics in the chromophores of the photosynthetic light harvesting complex 2 (LH2) B850 ring from purple bacteria (Rhodopseudomonas acidophila) have been studied theoretically at both physiological and cryogenic temperatures. Similar to the well-studied Fenna-Matthews-Olson (FMO) protein, oscillations of the excitation population and coherence in the site basis are observed in LH2 by using a scaled hierarchical equation of motion approach. However, this oscillation time (300 fs) is much shorter compared to the FMO protein (650 fs) at cryogenic temperature. Both environment and high temperature are found to enhance the propagation speed of the exciton wave packet yet they shorten the coherence time and suppress the oscillation amplitude of coherence and the population. Our calculations show that a long-lived coherence between chromophore electronic excited states can exist in such a noisy biological environment.

  2. Parameterization and Sensitivity Analysis of a Complex Simulation Model for Mosquito Population Dynamics, Dengue Transmission, and Their Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellis, Alicia M.; Garcia, Andres J.; Focks, Dana A.; Morrison, Amy C.; Scott, Thomas W.

    2011-01-01

    Models can be useful tools for understanding the dynamics and control of mosquito-borne disease. More detailed models may be more realistic and better suited for understanding local disease dynamics; however, evaluating model suitability, accuracy, and performance becomes increasingly difficult with greater model complexity. Sensitivity analysis is a technique that permits exploration of complex models by evaluating the sensitivity of the model to changes in parameters. Here, we present results of sensitivity analyses of two interrelated complex simulation models of mosquito population dynamics and dengue transmission. We found that dengue transmission may be influenced most by survival in each life stage of the mosquito, mosquito biting behavior, and duration of the infectious period in humans. The importance of these biological processes for vector-borne disease models and the overwhelming lack of knowledge about them make acquisition of relevant field data on these biological processes a top research priority. PMID:21813844

  3. Environmental coupling and population dynamics in the PE545 light-harvesting complex

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aghtar, Mortaza; Kleinekathöfer, Ulrich, E-mail: u.kleinekathoefer@jacobs-university.de

    2016-01-15

    Long-lived quantum coherences have been shown experimentally in the Fenna–Matthews–Olson (FMO) complex of green sulfur bacteria as well as in the phycoerythrin 545 (PE545) photosynthetic antenna system of marine algae. A combination of classical molecular dynamics simulations, quantum chemistry and quantum dynamical calculations is employed to determine the excitation transfer dynamics in PE545. One key property of the light-harvesting system concerning the excitation transfer and dephasing phenomena is the spectral density. This quantity is determined from time series of the vertical excitation energies of the aggregate. In the present study we focus on the quantum dynamical simulations using the earlier QM/MM calculations as input. Employing an ensemble-averaged classical path-based wave packet dynamics, the excitation transfer dynamics between the different bilins in the PE545 complex is determined and analyzed. Furthermore, the nature of the environmental fluctuations determining the transfer dynamics is discussed. - Highlights: • Modeling of excitation energy transfer in the light-harvesting system PE545. • Combination of molecular dynamics simulations, quantum chemistry and quantum dynamics. • Spectral densities for bilins in the PE545 complex.

  4. Complexity and simplification in understanding recruitment in benthic populations

    KAUST Repository

    Pineda, Jesús

    2008-11-13

    Research of complex systems and problems, entities with many dependencies, is often reductionist. The reductionist approach splits systems or problems into different components, and then addresses these components one by one. This approach has been used in the study of recruitment and population dynamics of marine benthic (bottom-dwelling) species. Another approach examines benthic population dynamics by looking at a small set of processes. This approach is statistical or model-oriented. Simplified approaches identify "macroecological" patterns or attempt to identify and model the essential, "first-order" elements of the system. The complexity of the recruitment and population dynamics problems stems from the number of processes that can potentially influence benthic populations, including (1) larval pool dynamics, (2) larval transport, (3) settlement, and (4) post-settlement biotic and abiotic processes, and larval production. Moreover, these processes are non-linear, some interact, and they may operate on disparate scales. This contribution discusses reductionist and simplified approaches to study benthic recruitment and population dynamics of bottom-dwelling marine invertebrates. We first address complexity in two processes known to influence recruitment, larval transport, and post-settlement survival to reproduction, and discuss the difficulty in understanding recruitment by looking at relevant processes individually and in isolation. We then address the simplified approach, which reduces the number of processes and makes the problem manageable. We discuss how simplifications and "broad-brush first-order approaches" may muddle our understanding of recruitment. Lack of empirical determination of the fundamental processes often results in mistaken inferences, and processes and parameters used in some models can bias our view of processes influencing recruitment. We conclude with a discussion on how to reconcile complex and simplified approaches. Although it

  5. Coherence and population dynamics of chlorophyll excitations in FCP complex: Two-dimensional spectroscopy study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Butkus, Vytautas; Gelzinis, Andrius; Valkunas, Leonas [Department of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University, Sauletekio Ave. 9-III, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania); Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Savanoriu Ave. 231, 02300 Vilnius (Lithuania); Augulis, Ramūnas [Center for Physical Sciences and Technology, Savanoriu Ave. 231, 02300 Vilnius (Lithuania); Gall, Andrew; Robert, Bruno [Institut de Biologie et Technologies de Saclay, Bât 532, Commissariat à l’Energie Atomique Saclay, 91191 Gif sur Yvette (France); Büchel, Claudia [Institut für Molekulare Biowissenschaften, Universität Frankfurt, Max-von-Laue-Straße 9, Frankfurt (Germany); Zigmantas, Donatas [Department of Chemical Physics, Lund University, P.O. Box 124, 22100 Lund (Sweden); Abramavicius, Darius, E-mail: darius.abramavicius@ff.vu.lt [Department of Theoretical Physics, Faculty of Physics, Vilnius University, Sauletekio Ave. 9-III, 10222 Vilnius (Lithuania)

    2015-06-07

    Energy transfer processes and coherent phenomena in the fucoxanthin–chlorophyll protein complex, which is responsible for the light harvesting function in marine algae diatoms, were investigated at 77 K by using two-dimensional electronic spectroscopy. Experiments performed on femtosecond and picosecond timescales led to separation of spectral dynamics, witnessing evolutions of coherence and population states of the system in the spectral region of Q{sub y} transitions of chlorophylls a and c. Analysis of the coherence dynamics allowed us to identify chlorophyll (Chl) a and fucoxanthin intramolecular vibrations dominating over the first few picoseconds. Closer inspection of the spectral region of the Q{sub y} transition of Chl c revealed previously not identified, mutually non-interacting chlorophyll c states participating in femtosecond or picosecond energy transfer to the Chl a molecules. Consideration of separated coherent and incoherent dynamics allowed us to hypothesize the vibrations-assisted coherent energy transfer between Chl c and Chl a and the overall spatial arrangement of chlorophyll molecules.

  6. Population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cooch, E. G.

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Increases or decreases in the size of populations over space and time are, arguably, the motivation for much of pure and applied ecological research. The fundamental model for the dynamics of any population is straightforward: the net change over time in the abundance of some population is the simple difference between the number of additions (individuals entering the population minus the number of subtractions (individuals leaving the population. Of course, the precise nature of the pattern and process of these additions and subtractions is often complex, and population biology is often replete with fairly dense mathematical representations of both processes. While there is no doubt that analysis of such abstract descriptions of populations has been of considerable value in advancing our, there has often existed a palpable discomfort when the ‘beautiful math’ is faced with the often ‘ugly realities’ of empirical data. In some cases, this attempted merger is abandoned altogether, because of the paucity of ‘good empirical data’ with which the theoretician can modify and evaluate more conceptually–based models. In some cases, the lack of ‘data’ is more accurately represented as a lack of robust estimates of one or more parameters. It is in this arena that methods developed to analyze multiple encounter data from individually marked organisms has seen perhaps the greatest advances. These methods have rapidly evolved to facilitate not only estimation of one or more vital rates, critical to population modeling and analysis, but also to allow for direct estimation of both the dynamics of populations (e.g., Pradel, 1996, and factors influencing those dynamics (e.g., Nichols et al., 2000. The interconnections between the various vital rates, their estimation, and incorporation into models, was the general subject of our plenary presentation by Hal Caswell (Caswell & Fujiwara, 2004. Caswell notes that although interest has traditionally

  7. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu Hengguo; Zhao Min; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili

    2009-01-01

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model

  8. Dynamic complexities in a parasitoid-host-parasitoid ecological model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yu Hengguo [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China); Zhao Min [School of Life and Environmental Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325027 (China)], E-mail: zmcn@tom.com; Lv Songjuan; Zhu Lili [School of Mathematic and Information Science, Wenzhou University, Wenzhou, Zhejiang 325035 (China)

    2009-01-15

    Chaotic dynamics have been observed in a wide range of population models. In this study, the complex dynamics in a discrete-time ecological model of parasitoid-host-parasitoid are presented. The model shows that the superiority coefficient not only stabilizes the dynamics, but may strongly destabilize them as well. Many forms of complex dynamics were observed, including pitchfork bifurcation with quasi-periodicity, period-doubling cascade, chaotic crisis, chaotic bands with narrow or wide periodic window, intermittent chaos, and supertransient behavior. Furthermore, computation of the largest Lyapunov exponent demonstrated the chaotic dynamic behavior of the model.

  9. Causes and consequences of complex population dynamics in an annual plant, Cardamine pensylvanica

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crone, E.E.

    1995-11-08

    The relative importance of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining the population dynamics of plants has been widely debated with little resolution. In this thesis, the author explores the effects of density-dependent population regulation on population dynamics in Cardamine pensylvanica, an annual plant. In the first chapter, she shows that experimental populations of C. pensylvanica cycled from high to low density in controlled constant-environment conditions. These cycles could not be explained by external environmental changes or simple models of direct density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}]), but they could be explained by delayed density dependence (N{sub t+1} = f[N{sub t}, N{sub t+1}]). In the second chapter, she shows that the difference in the stability properties of population growth models with and without delayed density dependence is due to the presence of Hopf as well as slip bifurcations from stable to chaotic population dynamics. She also measures delayed density dependence due to effects of parental density on offspring quality in C. pensylvanica and shows that this is large enough to be the cause of the population dynamics observed in C. pensylvanica. In the third chapter, the author extends her analyses of density-dependent population growth models to include interactions between competing species. In the final chapter, she compares the effects of fixed spatial environmental variation and variation in population size on the evolutionary response of C. pensylvanica populations.

  10. Nonlinear Relaxation in Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cirone, Markus A.; de Pasquale, Ferdinando; Spagnolo, Bernardo

    We analyze the nonlinear relaxation of a complex ecosystem composed of many interacting species. The ecological system is described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations with a multiplicative noise. The transient dynamics is studied in the framework of the mean field theory and with random interaction between the species. We focus on the statistical properties of the asymptotic behaviour of the time integral of the ith population and on the distribution of the population and of the local field.

  11. Application of System Dynamics Methodology in Population Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    August Turina

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The goal of this work is to present the application of system dynamics and system thinking, as well as the advantages and possible defects of this analytic approach, in order to improve the analysis of complex systems such as population and, thereby, to monitor more effectively the underlying causes of migrations. This methodology has long been present in interdisciplinary scientific circles, but its scientific contribution has not been sufficiently applied in analysis practice in Croatia. Namely, the major part of system analysis is focused on detailed complexity rather than on dynamic complexity. Generally, the science of complexity deals with emergence, innovation, learning and adaptation. Complexity is viewed according to the number of system components, or through a number of combinations that must be continually analyzed in order to understand and consequently provide adequate decisions. Simulations containing thousands of variables and complex arrays of details distract overall attention from the basic cause patterns and key inter-relations emerging and prevailing within an analyzed population. Systems thinking offers a holistic and integral perspective for observation of the world.

  12. Complex and unexpected dynamics in simple genetic regulatory networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Yanika; Ullner, Ekkehard; Alagha, Afnan; Alsaedi, Ahmed; Nesbeth, Darren; Zaikin, Alexey

    2014-03-01

    One aim of synthetic biology is to construct increasingly complex genetic networks from interconnected simpler ones to address challenges in medicine and biotechnology. However, as systems increase in size and complexity, emergent properties lead to unexpected and complex dynamics due to nonlinear and nonequilibrium properties from component interactions. We focus on four different studies of biological systems which exhibit complex and unexpected dynamics. Using simple synthetic genetic networks, small and large populations of phase-coupled quorum sensing repressilators, Goodwin oscillators, and bistable switches, we review how coupled and stochastic components can result in clustering, chaos, noise-induced coherence and speed-dependent decision making. A system of repressilators exhibits oscillations, limit cycles, steady states or chaos depending on the nature and strength of the coupling mechanism. In large repressilator networks, rich dynamics can also be exhibited, such as clustering and chaos. In populations of Goodwin oscillators, noise can induce coherent oscillations. In bistable systems, the speed with which incoming external signals reach steady state can bias the network towards particular attractors. These studies showcase the range of dynamical behavior that simple synthetic genetic networks can exhibit. In addition, they demonstrate the ability of mathematical modeling to analyze nonlinearity and inhomogeneity within these systems.

  13. Evolutionary dynamics of cooperation in neutral populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

    2018-01-01

    Cooperation is a difficult proposition in the face of Darwinian selection. Those that defect have an evolutionary advantage over cooperators who should therefore die out. However, spatial structure enables cooperators to survive through the formation of homogeneous clusters, which is the hallmark of network reciprocity. Here we go beyond this traditional setup and study the spatiotemporal dynamics of cooperation in a population of populations. We use the prisoner's dilemma game as the mathematical model and show that considering several populations simultaneously gives rise to fascinating spatiotemporal dynamics and pattern formation. Even the simplest assumption that strategies between different populations are payoff-neutral with one another results in the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance, where defectors of one population become prey of cooperators in the other population, and vice versa. Moreover, if social interactions within different populations are characterized by significantly different temptations to defect, we observe that defectors in the population with the largest temptation counterintuitively vanish the fastest, while cooperators that hang on eventually take over the whole available space. Our results reveal that considering the simultaneous presence of different populations significantly expands the complexity of evolutionary dynamics in structured populations, and it allows us to understand the stability of cooperation under adverse conditions that could never be bridged by network reciprocity alone.

  14. Complexity and Dynamical Depth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terrence Deacon

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available We argue that a critical difference distinguishing machines from organisms and computers from brains is not complexity in a structural sense, but a difference in dynamical organization that is not well accounted for by current complexity measures. We propose a measure of the complexity of a system that is largely orthogonal to computational, information theoretic, or thermodynamic conceptions of structural complexity. What we call a system’s dynamical depth is a separate dimension of system complexity that measures the degree to which it exhibits discrete levels of nonlinear dynamical organization in which successive levels are distinguished by local entropy reduction and constraint generation. A system with greater dynamical depth than another consists of a greater number of such nested dynamical levels. Thus, a mechanical or linear thermodynamic system has less dynamical depth than an inorganic self-organized system, which has less dynamical depth than a living system. Including an assessment of dynamical depth can provide a more precise and systematic account of the fundamental difference between inorganic systems (low dynamical depth and living systems (high dynamical depth, irrespective of the number of their parts and the causal relations between them.

  15. Dynamical community structure of populations evolving on genotype networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Capitán, José A.; Aguirre, Jacobo; Manrubia, Susanna

    2015-01-01

    Neutral evolutionary dynamics of replicators occurs on large and heterogeneous networks of genotypes. These networks, formed by all genotypes that yield the same phenotype, have a complex architecture that conditions the molecular composition of populations and their movements on genome spaces. Here we consider as an example the case of populations evolving on RNA secondary structure neutral networks and study the community structure of the network revealed through dynamical properties of the population at equilibrium and during adaptive transients. We unveil a rich hierarchical community structure that, eventually, can be traced back to the non-trivial relationship between RNA secondary structure and sequence composition. We demonstrate that usual measures of modularity that only take into account the static, topological structure of networks, cannot identify the community structure disclosed by population dynamics

  16. Population and reproductive dynamics of the polychaete Pygospio elegans in a boreal estuary complex

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thonig, Anne; Knott, K Emily; Kesäniemi, Jenni E

    2016-01-01

    Pygospio elegans is an opportunistic, wide-spread spionid polychaete that reproduces asexually via fragmentation and can produce benthic and pelagic larvae, hence combining different developmental modes in one species. We documented the density, size distribution, and reproductive activity of P....... elegans at four sites in the Danish Isefjord-Roskilde Fjord estuary complex, where all modes of reproduction were reported. We compared population dynamics of this species to environmental parameters such as salinity, temperature, and sediment characteristics (grain size, sorting, porosity, water content......, organic content, C/N). We observed that new cohorts—resulting either from sexual or asexual reproduction—appeared in spring and fall, and old ones disappeared in late summer and winter. Sexual reproduction occurred from September until May, and although their timing was variable, there were two...

  17. Integrating stochastic age-structured population dynamics into complex fisheries economic models for management evaluations: the North Sea saithe fishery as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Simons, S.L.; Bartelings, H.; Hamon, K.G.; Kempf, A.J.; Doring, R.; Temming, A.

    2014-01-01

    There is growing interest in bioeconomic models as tools for understanding pathways of fishery behaviour in order to assess the impact of alternative policies on natural resources. A model system is presented that combines stochastic age-structured population dynamics with complex fisheries

  18. Central-marginal population dynamics in species invasions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qinfeng eGuo

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available The species’ range limits and associated central-marginal (C-M; i.e., from species range center to margin population dynamics continue to draw increasing attention because of their importance for current emerging issues such as biotic invasions and epidemic diseases under global change. Previous studies have mainly focused on species borders and C-M process in natural settings for native species. More recently, growing efforts are devoted to examine the C-M patterns and process for invasive species partly due to their relatively short history, highly dynamic populations, and management implications. Here I examine recent findings and information gaps related to (1 the C-M population dynamics linked to species invasions, and (2 the possible effects of climate change and land use on the C-M patterns and processes. Unlike most native species that are relatively stable (some even having contracting populations or ranges, many invasive species are still spreading fast and form new distribution or abundance centers. Because of the strong nonlinearity of population demographic or vital rates (i.e. birth, death, immigration and emigration across the C-M gradients and the increased complexity of species ranges due to habitat fragmentation, multiple introductions, range-wide C-M comparisons and simulation involving multiple vital rates are needed in the future.

  19. Analysis and control of complex dynamical systems robust bifurcation, dynamic attractors, and network complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Imura, Jun-ichi; Ueta, Tetsushi

    2015-01-01

    This book is the first to report on theoretical breakthroughs on control of complex dynamical systems developed by collaborative researchers in the two fields of dynamical systems theory and control theory. As well, its basic point of view is of three kinds of complexity: bifurcation phenomena subject to model uncertainty, complex behavior including periodic/quasi-periodic orbits as well as chaotic orbits, and network complexity emerging from dynamical interactions between subsystems. Analysis and Control of Complex Dynamical Systems offers a valuable resource for mathematicians, physicists, and biophysicists, as well as for researchers in nonlinear science and control engineering, allowing them to develop a better fundamental understanding of the analysis and control synthesis of such complex systems.

  20. Evolutionary Dynamics and Diversity in Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Joel; Fisher, Daniel

    2013-03-01

    Diseases such as flu and cancer adapt at an astonishing rate. In large part, viruses and cancers are so difficult to prevent because they are continually evolving. Controlling such ``evolutionary diseases'' requires a better understanding of the underlying evolutionary dynamics. It is conventionally assumed that adaptive mutations are rare and therefore will occur and sweep through the population in succession. Recent experiments using modern sequencing technologies have illuminated the many ways in which real population sequence data does not conform to the predictions of conventional theory. We consider a very simple model of asexual evolution and perform simulations in a range of parameters thought to be relevant for microbes and cancer. Simulation results reveal complex evolutionary dynamics typified by competition between lineages with different sets of adaptive mutations. This dynamical process leads to a distribution of mutant gene frequencies different than expected under the conventional assumption that adaptive mutations are rare. Simulated gene frequencies share several conspicuous features with data collected from laboratory-evolved yeast and the worldwide population of influenza.

  1. Population dynamics of minimally cognitive individuals. Part 2: Dynamics of time-dependent knowledge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmieder, R.W.

    1995-07-01

    The dynamical principle for a population of interacting individuals with mutual pairwise knowledge, presented by the author in a previous paper for the case of constant knowledge, is extended to include the possibility that the knowledge is time-dependent. Several mechanisms are presented by which the mutual knowledge, represented by a matrix K, can be altered, leading to dynamical equations for K(t). The author presents various examples of the transient and long time asymptotic behavior of K(t) for populations of relatively isolated individuals interacting infrequently in local binary collisions. Among the effects observed in the numerical experiments are knowledge diffusion, learning transients, and fluctuating equilibria. This approach will be most appropriate to small populations of complex individuals such as simple animals, robots, computer networks, agent-mediated traffic, simple ecosystems, and games. Evidence of metastable states and intermittent switching leads them to envision a spectroscopy associated with such transitions that is independent of the specific physical individuals and the population. Such spectra may serve as good lumped descriptors of the collective emergent behavior of large classes of populations in which mutual knowledge is an important part of the dynamics.

  2. Markovian dynamics on complex reaction networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goutsias, J., E-mail: goutsias@jhu.edu; Jenkinson, G., E-mail: jenkinson@jhu.edu

    2013-08-10

    Complex networks, comprised of individual elements that interact with each other through reaction channels, are ubiquitous across many scientific and engineering disciplines. Examples include biochemical, pharmacokinetic, epidemiological, ecological, social, neural, and multi-agent networks. A common approach to modeling such networks is by a master equation that governs the dynamic evolution of the joint probability mass function of the underlying population process and naturally leads to Markovian dynamics for such process. Due however to the nonlinear nature of most reactions and the large size of the underlying state-spaces, computation and analysis of the resulting stochastic population dynamics is a difficult task. This review article provides a coherent and comprehensive coverage of recently developed approaches and methods to tackle this problem. After reviewing a general framework for modeling Markovian reaction networks and giving specific examples, the authors present numerical and computational techniques capable of evaluating or approximating the solution of the master equation, discuss a recently developed approach for studying the stationary behavior of Markovian reaction networks using a potential energy landscape perspective, and provide an introduction to the emerging theory of thermodynamic analysis of such networks. Three representative problems of opinion formation, transcription regulation, and neural network dynamics are used as illustrative examples.

  3. Markovian dynamics on complex reaction networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goutsias, J.; Jenkinson, G.

    2013-01-01

    Complex networks, comprised of individual elements that interact with each other through reaction channels, are ubiquitous across many scientific and engineering disciplines. Examples include biochemical, pharmacokinetic, epidemiological, ecological, social, neural, and multi-agent networks. A common approach to modeling such networks is by a master equation that governs the dynamic evolution of the joint probability mass function of the underlying population process and naturally leads to Markovian dynamics for such process. Due however to the nonlinear nature of most reactions and the large size of the underlying state-spaces, computation and analysis of the resulting stochastic population dynamics is a difficult task. This review article provides a coherent and comprehensive coverage of recently developed approaches and methods to tackle this problem. After reviewing a general framework for modeling Markovian reaction networks and giving specific examples, the authors present numerical and computational techniques capable of evaluating or approximating the solution of the master equation, discuss a recently developed approach for studying the stationary behavior of Markovian reaction networks using a potential energy landscape perspective, and provide an introduction to the emerging theory of thermodynamic analysis of such networks. Three representative problems of opinion formation, transcription regulation, and neural network dynamics are used as illustrative examples

  4. [The dynamics of heath indicators of population of industrial town].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalinkin, D E; Karpov, A B; Takhauov, R M; Samoĭlova, Iu A

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the results of analysis of dynamics of health indicators of population of industrial town (medical demographic indicators, disability, morbidity of social hygienically important diseases) during 1970-2010. The classified administrative territorial municipality of Seversk constructed near the Siberian chemical industrial center, the internationally first-rate complex of nuclear industry enterprises was used as a research base. It is demonstrated that dynamics of health indicators of studied population had such negative tendencies as rapid population ageing, population loss due to decrease of natality and increase of mortality (population of able-bodied age included), prevalence of cardio-vascular diseases, malignant neoplasms and external causes, chronization of diseases. The established tendencies are to be considered in management decision making targeted to support and promote population health in industrial towns.

  5. Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

    2009-01-01

    We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

  6. Nonlinear dynamics and complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Luo, Albert; Fu, Xilin

    2014-01-01

    This important collection presents recent advances in nonlinear dynamics including analytical solutions, chaos in Hamiltonian systems, time-delay, uncertainty, and bio-network dynamics. Nonlinear Dynamics and Complexity equips readers to appreciate this increasingly main-stream approach to understanding complex phenomena in nonlinear systems as they are examined in a broad array of disciplines. The book facilitates a better understanding of the mechanisms and phenomena in nonlinear dynamics and develops the corresponding mathematical theory to apply nonlinear design to practical engineering.

  7. Nonlinear dynamics of interacting populations

    CERN Document Server

    Bazykin, Alexander D

    1998-01-01

    This book contains a systematic study of ecological communities of two or three interacting populations. Starting from the Lotka-Volterra system, various regulating factors are considered, such as rates of birth and death, predation and competition. The different factors can have a stabilizing or a destabilizing effect on the community, and their interplay leads to increasingly complicated behavior. Studying and understanding this path to greater dynamical complexity of ecological systems constitutes the backbone of this book. On the mathematical side, the tool of choice is the qualitative the

  8. Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

    In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three

  9. Conceptualising population health: from mechanistic thinking to complexity science

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jayasinghe Saroj

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract The mechanistic interpretation of reality can be traced to the influential work by René Descartes and Sir Isaac Newton. Their theories were able to accurately predict most physical phenomena relating to motion, optics and gravity. This paradigm had at least three principles and approaches: reductionism, linearity and hierarchy. These ideas appear to have influenced social scientists and the discourse on population health. In contrast, Complexity Science takes a more holistic view of systems. It views natural systems as being 'open', with fuzzy borders, constantly adapting to cope with pressures from the environment. These are called Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS. The sub-systems within it lack stable hierarchies, and the roles of agency keep changing. The interactions with the environment and among sub-systems are non-linear interactions and lead to self-organisation and emergent properties. Theoretical frameworks such as epi+demos+cracy and the ecosocial approach to health have implicitly used some of these concepts of interacting dynamic sub-systems. Using Complexity Science we can view population health outcomes as an emergent property of CAS, which has numerous dynamic non-linear interactions among its interconnected sub-systems or agents. In order to appreciate these sub-systems and determinants, one should acquire a basic knowledge of diverse disciplines and interact with experts from different disciplines. Strategies to improve health should be multi-pronged, and take into account the diversity of actors, determinants and contexts. The dynamic nature of the system requires that the interventions are constantly monitored to provide early feedback to a flexible system that takes quick corrections.

  10. Conceptualising population health: from mechanistic thinking to complexity science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayasinghe, Saroj

    2011-01-20

    The mechanistic interpretation of reality can be traced to the influential work by René Descartes and Sir Isaac Newton. Their theories were able to accurately predict most physical phenomena relating to motion, optics and gravity. This paradigm had at least three principles and approaches: reductionism, linearity and hierarchy. These ideas appear to have influenced social scientists and the discourse on population health. In contrast, Complexity Science takes a more holistic view of systems. It views natural systems as being 'open', with fuzzy borders, constantly adapting to cope with pressures from the environment. These are called Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). The sub-systems within it lack stable hierarchies, and the roles of agency keep changing. The interactions with the environment and among sub-systems are non-linear interactions and lead to self-organisation and emergent properties. Theoretical frameworks such as epi+demos+cracy and the ecosocial approach to health have implicitly used some of these concepts of interacting dynamic sub-systems. Using Complexity Science we can view population health outcomes as an emergent property of CAS, which has numerous dynamic non-linear interactions among its interconnected sub-systems or agents. In order to appreciate these sub-systems and determinants, one should acquire a basic knowledge of diverse disciplines and interact with experts from different disciplines. Strategies to improve health should be multi-pronged, and take into account the diversity of actors, determinants and contexts. The dynamic nature of the system requires that the interventions are constantly monitored to provide early feedback to a flexible system that takes quick corrections.

  11. An age-structured population balance model for microbial dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Duarte M.V.E.

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available This work presents an age-structured population balance model (ASPBM for a bioprocess in a continuous stirred-tank fermentor. It relates the macroscopic properties and dynamic behavior of biomass to the operational parameters and microscopic properties of cells. Population dynamics is governed by two time- and age-dependent density functions for living and dead cells, accounting for the influence of substrate and dissolved oxygen concentrations on cell division, aging and death processes. The ASPBM described biomass and substrate oscillations in aerobic continuous cultures as experimentally observed. It is noteworthy that a small data set consisting of nonsegregated measurements was sufficient to adjust a complex segregated mathematical model.

  12. Spreading dynamics on complex networks: a general stochastic approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noël, Pierre-André; Allard, Antoine; Hébert-Dufresne, Laurent; Marceau, Vincent; Dubé, Louis J

    2014-12-01

    Dynamics on networks is considered from the perspective of Markov stochastic processes. We partially describe the state of the system through network motifs and infer any missing data using the available information. This versatile approach is especially well adapted for modelling spreading processes and/or population dynamics. In particular, the generality of our framework and the fact that its assumptions are explicitly stated suggests that it could be used as a common ground for comparing existing epidemics models too complex for direct comparison, such as agent-based computer simulations. We provide many examples for the special cases of susceptible-infectious-susceptible and susceptible-infectious-removed dynamics (e.g., epidemics propagation) and we observe multiple situations where accurate results may be obtained at low computational cost. Our perspective reveals a subtle balance between the complex requirements of a realistic model and its basic assumptions.

  13. Dynamic complexities in a seasonal prevention epidemic model with birth pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gao Shujing; Chen Lansun; Sun Lihua

    2005-01-01

    In most of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-dependent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. In this paper, we propose an epidemic model with density-dependent birth pulses and seasonal prevention. Using the discrete dynamical system determined by stroboscopic map, we obtain the local or global stability, numerical simulation shows there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations, leading to chaotic dynamics, which implies that the dynamical behaviors of the epidemic model with birth pulses and seasonal prevention are very complex, including small amplitude oscillations, large-amplitude multi-annual cycles and chaos. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that may lead a period-doubling route to chaos

  14. Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhen; Andrews, Michael A.; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Wang, Lin; Bauch, Chris T.

    2015-12-01

    It is increasingly recognized that a key component of successful infection control efforts is understanding the complex, two-way interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. Human behavior such as contact precautions and social distancing clearly influence disease prevalence, but disease prevalence can in turn alter human behavior, forming a coupled, nonlinear system. Moreover, in many cases, the spatial structure of the population cannot be ignored, such that social and behavioral processes and/or transmission of infection must be represented with complex networks. Research on studying coupled disease-behavior dynamics in complex networks in particular is growing rapidly, and frequently makes use of analysis methods and concepts from statistical physics. Here, we review some of the growing literature in this area. We contrast network-based approaches to homogeneous-mixing approaches, point out how their predictions differ, and describe the rich and often surprising behavior of disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks, and compare them to processes in statistical physics. We discuss how these models can capture the dynamics that characterize many real-world scenarios, thereby suggesting ways that policy makers can better design effective prevention strategies. We also describe the growing sources of digital data that are facilitating research in this area. Finally, we suggest pitfalls which might be faced by researchers in the field, and we suggest several ways in which the field could move forward in the coming years.

  15. From complex spatial dynamics to simple Markov chain models: do predators and prey leave footprints?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nachman, Gøsta Støger; Borregaard, Michael Krabbe

    2010-01-01

    to another, are then depicted in a state transition diagram, constituting the "footprints" of the underlying population dynamics. We investigate to what extent changes in the population processes modeled in the complex simulation (i.e. the predator's functional response and the dispersal rates of both......In this paper we present a concept for using presence-absence data to recover information on the population dynamics of predator-prey systems. We use a highly complex and spatially explicit simulation model of a predator-prey mite system to generate simple presence-absence data: the number...... of transition probabilities on state variables, and combine this information in a Markov chain transition matrix model. Finally, we use this extended model to predict the long-term dynamics of the system and to reveal its asymptotic steady state properties....

  16. Critical dynamics in population vaccinating behavior.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pananos, A Demetri; Bury, Thomas M; Wang, Clara; Schonfeld, Justin; Mohanty, Sharada P; Nyhan, Brendan; Salathé, Marcel; Bauch, Chris T

    2017-12-26

    Vaccine refusal can lead to renewed outbreaks of previously eliminated diseases and even delay global eradication. Vaccinating decisions exemplify a complex, coupled system where vaccinating behavior and disease dynamics influence one another. Such systems often exhibit critical phenomena-special dynamics close to a tipping point leading to a new dynamical regime. For instance, critical slowing down (declining rate of recovery from small perturbations) may emerge as a tipping point is approached. Here, we collected and geocoded tweets about measles-mumps-rubella vaccine and classified their sentiment using machine-learning algorithms. We also extracted data on measles-related Google searches. We find critical slowing down in the data at the level of California and the United States in the years before and after the 2014-2015 Disneyland, California measles outbreak. Critical slowing down starts growing appreciably several years before the Disneyland outbreak as vaccine uptake declines and the population approaches the tipping point. However, due to the adaptive nature of coupled behavior-disease systems, the population responds to the outbreak by moving away from the tipping point, causing "critical speeding up" whereby resilience to perturbations increases. A mathematical model of measles transmission and vaccine sentiment predicts the same qualitative patterns in the neighborhood of a tipping point to greatly reduced vaccine uptake and large epidemics. These results support the hypothesis that population vaccinating behavior near the disease elimination threshold is a critical phenomenon. Developing new analytical tools to detect these patterns in digital social data might help us identify populations at heightened risk of widespread vaccine refusal. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  17. Stochastic population dynamics in spatially extended predator-prey systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dobramysl, Ulrich; Mobilia, Mauro; Pleimling, Michel; Täuber, Uwe C.

    2018-02-01

    Spatially extended population dynamics models that incorporate demographic noise serve as case studies for the crucial role of fluctuations and correlations in biological systems. Numerical and analytic tools from non-equilibrium statistical physics capture the stochastic kinetics of these complex interacting many-particle systems beyond rate equation approximations. Including spatial structure and stochastic noise in models for predator-prey competition invalidates the neutral Lotka-Volterra population cycles. Stochastic models yield long-lived erratic oscillations stemming from a resonant amplification mechanism. Spatially extended predator-prey systems display noise-stabilized activity fronts that generate persistent correlations. Fluctuation-induced renormalizations of the oscillation parameters can be analyzed perturbatively via a Doi-Peliti field theory mapping of the master equation; related tools allow detailed characterization of extinction pathways. The critical steady-state and non-equilibrium relaxation dynamics at the predator extinction threshold are governed by the directed percolation universality class. Spatial predation rate variability results in more localized clusters, enhancing both competing species’ population densities. Affixing variable interaction rates to individual particles and allowing for trait inheritance subject to mutations induces fast evolutionary dynamics for the rate distributions. Stochastic spatial variants of three-species competition with ‘rock-paper-scissors’ interactions metaphorically describe cyclic dominance. These models illustrate intimate connections between population dynamics and evolutionary game theory, underscore the role of fluctuations to drive populations toward extinction, and demonstrate how space can support species diversity. Two-dimensional cyclic three-species May-Leonard models are characterized by the emergence of spiraling patterns whose properties are elucidated by a mapping onto a complex

  18. Early days in complex dynamics a history of complex dynamics in one variable during 1906-1942

    CERN Document Server

    Alexander, Daniel S; Rosa, Alessandro

    2011-01-01

    The theory of complex dynamics, whose roots lie in 19th-century studies of the iteration of complex function conducted by Kœnigs, Schröder, and others, flourished remarkably during the first half of the 20th century, when many of the central ideas and techniques of the subject developed. This book by Alexander, Iavernaro, and Rosa paints a robust picture of the field of complex dynamics between 1906 and 1942 through detailed discussions of the work of Fatou, Julia, Siegel, and several others. A recurrent theme of the authors' treatment is the center problem in complex dynamics. They present its complete history during this period and, in so doing, bring out analogies between complex dynamics and the study of differential equations, in particular, the problem of stability in Hamiltonian systems. Among these analogies are the use of iteration and problems involving small divisors which the authors examine in the work of Poincaré and others, linking them to complex dynamics, principally via the work of Samuel...

  19. Management of complex dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacKay, R. S.

    2018-02-01

    Complex dynamical systems are systems with many interdependent components which evolve in time. One might wish to control their trajectories, but a more practical alternative is to control just their statistical behaviour. In many contexts this would be both sufficient and a more realistic goal, e.g. climate and socio-economic systems. I refer to it as ‘management’ of complex dynamical systems. In this paper, some mathematics for management of complex dynamical systems is developed in the weakly dependent regime, and questions are posed for the strongly dependent regime.

  20. The population dynamical implications of male-biased parasitism in different mating systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin R Miller

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Although there is growing evidence that males tend to suffer higher levels of parasitism than females, the implications of this for the population dynamics of the host population are not yet understood. Here we build on an established 'two-sex' model and investigate how increased susceptibility to infection in males affects the dynamics, under different mating systems. We investigate the effect of pathogenic disease at different case mortalities, under both monogamous and polygynous mating systems. If the case mortality is low, then male-biased parasitism appears similar to unbiased parasitism in terms of its effect on the population dynamics. At higher case mortalities, we identified significant differences between male-biased and unbiased parasitism. A host population may therefore be differentially affected by male-biased and unbiased parasitism. The dynamical outcome is likely to depend on a complex interaction between the host's mating system and demography, and the parasite virulence.

  1. Dynamics of Fos-Jun-NFAT1 complexes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez-Carrozzi, V R; Kerppola, T K

    2001-04-24

    Transcription initiation in eukaryotes is controlled by nucleoprotein complexes formed through cooperative interactions among multiple transcription regulatory proteins. These complexes may be assembled via stochastic collisions or defined pathways. We investigated the dynamics of Fos-Jun-NFAT1 complexes by using a multicolor fluorescence resonance energy transfer assay. Fos-Jun heterodimers can bind to AP-1 sites in two opposite orientations, only one of which is populated in mature Fos-Jun-NFAT1 complexes. We studied the reversal of Fos-Jun binding orientation in response to NFAT1 by measuring the efficiencies of energy transfer from donor fluorophores linked to opposite ends of an oligonucleotide to an acceptor fluorophore linked to one subunit of the heterodimer. The reorientation of Fos-Jun by NFAT1 was not inhibited by competitor oligonucleotides or heterodimers. The rate of Fos-Jun reorientation was faster than the rate of heterodimer dissociation at some binding sites. The facilitated reorientation of Fos-Jun heterodimers therefore can enhance the efficiency of Fos-Jun-NFAT1 complex formation. We also examined the influence of the preferred orientation of Fos-Jun binding on the stability and transcriptional activity of Fos-Jun-NFAT1 complexes. Complexes formed at sites where Fos-Jun favored the same binding orientation in the presence and absence of NFAT1 exhibited an 8-fold slower dissociation rate than complexes formed at sites where Fos-Jun favored the opposite binding orientation. Fos-Jun-NFAT1 complexes also exhibited greater transcription activation at promoter elements that favored the same orientation of Fos-Jun binding in the presence and absence of NFAT1. Thus, the orientation of heterodimer binding can influence both the dynamics and promoter selectivity of multiprotein transcription regulatory complexes.

  2. Effects of constant immigration on the dynamics and persistence of stable and unstable Drosophila populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Snigdhadip; Joshi, Amitabh

    2013-01-01

    Constant immigration can stabilize population size fluctuations but its effects on extinction remain unexplored. We show that constant immigration significantly reduced extinction in fruitfly populations with relatively stable or unstable dynamics. In unstable populations with oscillations of amplitude around 1.5 times the mean population size, persistence and constancy were unrelated. Low immigration enhanced persistence without affecting constancy whereas high immigration increased constancy without enhancing persistence. In relatively stable populations with erratic fluctuations of amplitude close to the mean population size, both low and high immigration enhanced persistence. In these populations, the amplitude of fluctuations relative to mean population size went down due to immigration, and their dynamics were altered to low-period cycles. The effects of immigration on the population size distribution and intrinsic dynamics of stable versus unstable populations differed considerably, suggesting that the mechanisms by which immigration reduced extinction risk depended on underlying dynamics in complex ways. PMID:23470546

  3. Effects of demographic structure on key properties of stochastic density-independent population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Sæther, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar

    2012-12-01

    The development of stochastic demography has largely been based on age structured populations, although other types of demographic structure, especially permanent and dynamic heterogeneity, are likely common in natural populations. The combination of stochasticity and demographic structure is a challenge for analyses of population dynamics and extinction risk, because the population structure will fluctuate around the stable structure and the population size shows transient fluctuations. However, by using a diffusion approximation for the total reproductive value, density-independent dynamics of structured populations can be described with only three population parameters: the expected population growth rate, the environmental variance and the demographic variance. These parameters depend on population structure via the state-specific vital rates and transition rates. Once they are found, the diffusion approximation represents a substantial reduction in model complexity. Here, we review and compare the key population parameters across a wide range of demographic structure, from the case of no structure to the most general case of dynamic heterogeneity, and for both discrete and continuous types. We focus on the demographic variance, but also show how environmental stochasticity can be included. This study brings together results from recent models, each considering a specific type of population structure, and places them in a general framework for structured populations. Comparison across different types of demographic structure reveals that the reproductive value is an essential concept for understanding how population structure affects stochastic dynamics and extinction risk. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  4. Sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine for reconstructing complex networks with binary dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yu-Zhong; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2018-03-01

    Revealing the structure and dynamics of complex networked systems from observed data is a problem of current interest. Is it possible to develop a completely data-driven framework to decipher the network structure and different types of dynamical processes on complex networks? We develop a model named sparse dynamical Boltzmann machine (SDBM) as a structural estimator for complex networks that host binary dynamical processes. The SDBM attains its topology according to that of the original system and is capable of simulating the original binary dynamical process. We develop a fully automated method based on compressive sensing and a clustering algorithm to construct the SDBM. We demonstrate, for a variety of representative dynamical processes on model and real world complex networks, that the equivalent SDBM can recover the network structure of the original system and simulates its dynamical behavior with high precision.

  5. High population variability and source-sink dynamics in a solitary bee species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franzén, Markus; Nilsson, Sven G

    2013-06-01

    Although solitary bees are considered to play key roles in ecosystem functions, surprisingly few studies have explored their population dynamics. We investigated the population dynamics of a rare, declining, solitary bee (Andrena humilis) in a landscape of 80 km2 in southern Sweden from 2003 to 2011. Only one population was persistent throughout all years studied; most likely this population supplied the surrounding landscape with 11 smaller, temporary local populations. Despite stable pollen availability, the size of the persistent population fluctuated dramatically in a two-year cycle over the nine years, with 490-1230 nests in odd-numbered years and 21-48 nests in even-numbered years. These fluctuations were not significantly related to climatic variables or pollen availability. Nineteen colonization and 14 extinction events were recorded. Occupancy decreased with distance from the persistent population and increased with increasing resource (pollen) availability. There were significant positive correlations between the size of the persistent population and patch occupancy and colonization. Colonizations were generally more common in patches closer to the persistent population, whereas extinctions were independent of distance from the persistent population. Our results highlight the complex population dynamics that exist for this solitary bee species, which could be due to source-sink dynamics, a prolonged diapause, or can represent a bet-hedging strategy to avoid natural enemies and survive in small habitat patches. If large fluctuations in solitary bee populations prove to be widespread, it will have important implications for interpreting ecological relationships, bee conservation, and pollination.

  6. Simple deterministic models and applications. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hyun Mo

    2015-12-01

    Currently, discrete modellings are largely accepted due to the access to computers with huge storage capacity and high performance processors and easy implementation of algorithms, allowing to develop and simulate increasingly sophisticated models. Wang et al. [7] present a review of dynamics in complex networks, focusing on the interaction between disease dynamics and human behavioral and social dynamics. By doing an extensive review regarding to the human behavior responding to disease dynamics, the authors briefly describe the complex dynamics found in the literature: well-mixed populations networks, where spatial structure can be neglected, and other networks considering heterogeneity on spatially distributed populations. As controlling mechanisms are implemented, such as social distancing due 'social contagion', quarantine, non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination, adaptive behavior can occur in human population, which can be easily taken into account in the dynamics formulated by networked populations.

  7. Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reid, Jane M; Travis, Justin M J; Daunt, Francis; Burthe, Sarah J; Wanless, Sarah; Dytham, Calvin

    2018-03-25

    be occupied by different sets of resident and migrant individuals in different seasons, and where locations that can support reproduction can also be linked by dispersal. We outline key forms of within-individual and among-individual variation and structure in migration that could arise within such systems and interact with variation in individual survival, reproduction and dispersal to create complex population dynamics and evolutionary responses across locations, seasons, years and generations. Third, we review approaches by which population dynamic and eco-evolutionary models could be developed to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics and persistence of partially migratory meta-populations given diverse forms of seasonal environmental variation and change, and to forecast system-specific dynamics. To demonstrate one such approach, we use an evolutionary individual-based model to illustrate that multiple forms of partial migration can readily co-exist in a simple spatially structured landscape. Finally, we summarise recent empirical studies that demonstrate key components of demographic structure in partial migration, and demonstrate diverse associations with reproduction and survival. We thereby identify key theoretical and empirical knowledge gaps that remain, and consider multiple complementary approaches by which these gaps can be filled in order to elucidate population dynamic and eco-evolutionary responses to spatio-temporal seasonal environmental variation and change. © 2018 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  8. Complexity in Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Cristopher David

    The study of chaos has shown us that deterministic systems can have a kind of unpredictability, based on a limited knowledge of their initial conditions; after a finite time, the motion appears essentially random. This observation has inspired a general interest in the subject of unpredictability, and more generally, complexity; how can we characterize how "complex" a dynamical system is?. In this thesis, we attempt to answer this question with a paradigm of complexity that comes from computer science, we extract sets of symbol sequences, or languages, from a dynamical system using standard methods of symbolic dynamics; we then ask what kinds of grammars or automata are needed a generate these languages. This places them in the Chomsky heirarchy, which in turn tells us something about how subtle and complex the dynamical system's behavior is. This gives us insight into the question of unpredictability, since these automata can also be thought of as computers attempting to predict the system. In the culmination of the thesis, we find a class of smooth, two-dimensional maps which are equivalent to the highest class in the Chomsky heirarchy, the turning machine; they are capable of universal computation. Therefore, these systems possess a kind of unpredictability qualitatively different from the usual "chaos": even if the initial conditions are known exactly, questions about the system's long-term dynamics are undecidable. No algorithm exists to answer them. Although this kind of unpredictability has been discussed in the context of distributed, many-degree-of -freedom systems (for instance, cellular automata) we believe this is the first example of such phenomena in a smooth, finite-degree-of-freedom system.

  9. Neural Population Dynamics during Reaching Are Better Explained by a Dynamical System than Representational Tuning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michaels, Jonathan A; Dann, Benjamin; Scherberger, Hansjörg

    2016-11-01

    Recent models of movement generation in motor cortex have sought to explain neural activity not as a function of movement parameters, known as representational models, but as a dynamical system acting at the level of the population. Despite evidence supporting this framework, the evaluation of representational models and their integration with dynamical systems is incomplete in the literature. Using a representational velocity-tuning based simulation of center-out reaching, we show that incorporating variable latency offsets between neural activity and kinematics is sufficient to generate rotational dynamics at the level of neural populations, a phenomenon observed in motor cortex. However, we developed a covariance-matched permutation test (CMPT) that reassigns neural data between task conditions independently for each neuron while maintaining overall neuron-to-neuron relationships, revealing that rotations based on the representational model did not uniquely depend on the underlying condition structure. In contrast, rotations based on either a dynamical model or motor cortex data depend on this relationship, providing evidence that the dynamical model more readily explains motor cortex activity. Importantly, implementing a recurrent neural network we demonstrate that both representational tuning properties and rotational dynamics emerge, providing evidence that a dynamical system can reproduce previous findings of representational tuning. Finally, using motor cortex data in combination with the CMPT, we show that results based on small numbers of neurons or conditions should be interpreted cautiously, potentially informing future experimental design. Together, our findings reinforce the view that representational models lack the explanatory power to describe complex aspects of single neuron and population level activity.

  10. Symbolic dynamics and description of complexity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao Bailin.

    1992-10-01

    Symbolic dynamics provides a general framework to describe complexity of dynamical behaviour. After a discussion of the state of the filed special emphasis will be made on the role of transfer matrix (the Stefan matrix) both in deriving the grammar from known symbolic dynamics and in extracting the rules from experimental data. The block structure of the Stefan matrix may serve as another indicator of complexity of the associated dynamics. (author). 33 refs, 6 figs

  11. Dynamics in Complex Coacervates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Sarah

    Understanding the dynamics of a material provides detailed information about the self-assembly, structure, and intermolecular interactions present in a material. While rheological methods have long been used for the characterization of complex coacervate-based materials, it remains a challenge to predict the dynamics for a new system of materials. Furthermore, most work reports only qualitative trends exist as to how parameters such as charge stoichiometry, ionic strength, and polymer chain length impact self-assembly and material dynamics, and there is little information on the effects of polymer architecture or the organization of charges within a polymer. We seek to link thermodynamic studies of coacervation phase behavior with material dynamics through a carefully-controlled, systematic study of coacervate linear viscoelasticity for different polymer chemistries. We couple various methods of characterizing the dynamics of polymer-based complex coacervates, including the time-salt superposition methods developed first by Spruijt and coworkers to establish a more mechanistic strategy for comparing the material dynamics and linear viscoelasticity of different systems. Acknowledgment is made to the Donors of the American Chemical Society Petroleum Research Fund for support of this research.

  12. Dynamic complexity: plant receptor complexes at the plasma membrane.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkart, Rebecca C; Stahl, Yvonne

    2017-12-01

    Plant receptor complexes at the cell surface perceive many different external and internal signalling molecules and relay these signals into the cell to regulate development, growth and immunity. Recent progress in the analyses of receptor complexes using different live cell imaging approaches have shown that receptor complex formation and composition are dynamic and take place at specific microdomains at the plasma membrane. In this review we focus on three prominent examples of Arabidopsis thaliana receptor complexes and how their dynamic spatio-temporal distribution at the PM has been studied recently. We will elaborate on the newly emerging concept of plasma membrane microdomains as potential hubs for specific receptor complex assembly and signalling outputs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Complex dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Carleson, Lennart

    1993-01-01

    Complex dynamics is today very much a focus of interest. Though several fine expository articles were available, by P. Blanchard and by M. Yu. Lyubich in particular, until recently there was no single source where students could find the material with proofs. For anyone in our position, gathering and organizing the material required a great deal of work going through preprints and papers and in some cases even finding a proof. We hope that the results of our efforts will be of help to others who plan to learn about complex dynamics and perhaps even lecture. Meanwhile books in the field a. re beginning to appear. The Stony Brook course notes of J. Milnor were particularly welcome and useful. Still we hope that our special emphasis on the analytic side will satisfy a need. This book is a revised and expanded version of notes based on lectures of the first author at UCLA over several \\Vinter Quarters, particularly 1986 and 1990. We owe Chris Bishop a great deal of gratitude for supervising the production of cour...

  14. Complex dynamical invariants for two-dimensional complex potentials

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Complex dynamical invariants are searched out for two-dimensional complex poten- tials using rationalization method within the framework of an extended complex phase space characterized by x = x1 + ip3, y = x2 + ip4, px = p1 + ix3, py = p2 + ix4. It is found that the cubic oscillator and shifted harmonic oscillator ...

  15. Population size does not explain past changes in cultural complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vaesen, Krist; Collard, Mark; Cosgrove, Richard; Roebroeks, Wil

    2016-04-19

    Demography is increasingly being invoked to account for features of the archaeological record, such as the technological conservatism of the Lower and Middle Pleistocene, the Middle to Upper Paleolithic transition, and cultural loss in Holocene Tasmania. Such explanations are commonly justified in relation to population dynamic models developed by Henrich [Henrich J (2004)Am Antiq69:197-214] and Powell et al. [Powell A, et al. (2009)Science324(5932):1298-1301], which appear to demonstrate that population size is the crucial determinant of cultural complexity. Here, we show that these models fail in two important respects. First, they only support a relationship between demography and culture in implausible conditions. Second, their predictions conflict with the available archaeological and ethnographic evidence. We conclude that new theoretical and empirical research is required to identify the factors that drove the changes in cultural complexity that are documented by the archaeological record.

  16. Rethinking the logistic approach for population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Algarra, Javier; Galeano, Javier; Pastor, Juan Manuel; Iriondo, José María; Ramasco, José J

    2014-12-21

    Mutualistic communities have an internal structure that makes them resilient to external perturbations. Late research has focused on their stability and the topology of the relations between the different organisms to explain the reasons of the system robustness. Much less attention has been invested in analyzing the systems dynamics. The main population models in use are modifications of the r-K formulation of logistic equation with additional terms to account for the benefits produced by the interspecific interactions. These models have shortcomings as the so-called r-K formulation diverges under some conditions. In this work, we introduce a model for population dynamics under mutualism that preserves the original logistic formulation. It is mathematically simpler than the widely used type II models, although it shows similar complexity in terms of fixed points and stability of the dynamics. We perform an analytical stability analysis and numerical simulations to study the model behavior in general interaction scenarios including tests of the resilience of its dynamics under external perturbations. Despite its simplicity, our results indicate that the model dynamics shows an important richness that can be used to gain further insights in the dynamics of mutualistic communities. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Fish population dynamics

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gulland, J. A

    1977-01-01

    This book describes how the dynamics of fish populations can be analysed in terms of the factors affecting their rates of growth, mortality and reproduction, with particular emphasis on the effects of fishing...

  18. Population dynamics at high Reynolds number

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perlekar, P.; Benzi, R.; Nelson, D.R.; Toschi, F.

    2010-01-01

    We study the statistical properties of population dynamics evolving in a realistic two-dimensional compressible turbulent velocity field. We show that the interplay between turbulent dynamics and population growth and saturation leads to quasi-localization and a remarkable reduction in the carrying

  19. Population Dynamics of Early Human Migration in Britain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mayank N Vahia

    Full Text Available Early human migration is largely determined by geography and human needs. These are both deterministic parameters when small populations move into unoccupied areas where conflicts and large group dynamics are not important. The early period of human migration into the British Isles provides such a laboratory which, because of its relative geographical isolation, may allow some insights into the complex dynamics of early human migration and interaction.We developed a simulation code based on human affinity to habitable land, as defined by availability of water sources, altitude, and flatness of land, in choosing the path of migration. Movement of people on the British island over the prehistoric period from their initial entry points was simulated on the basis of data from the megalithic period. Topographical and hydro-shed data from satellite databases was used to define habitability, based on distance from water bodies, flatness of the terrain, and altitude above sea level. We simulated population movement based on assumptions of affinity for more habitable places, with the rate of movement tempered by existing populations. We compared results of our computer simulations with genetic data and show that our simulation can predict fairly accurately the points of contacts between different migratory paths. Such comparison also provides more detailed information about the path of peoples' movement over ~2000 years before the present era.We demonstrate an accurate method to simulate prehistoric movements of people based upon current topographical satellite data. Our findings are validated by recently-available genetic data. Our method may prove useful in determining early human population dynamics even when no genetic information is available.

  20. Complex spatial dynamics of oncolytic viruses in vitro: mathematical and experimental approaches.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dominik Wodarz

    Full Text Available Oncolytic viruses replicate selectively in tumor cells and can serve as targeted treatment agents. While promising results have been observed in clinical trials, consistent success of therapy remains elusive. The dynamics of virus spread through tumor cell populations has been studied both experimentally and computationally. However, a basic understanding of the principles underlying virus spread in spatially structured target cell populations has yet to be obtained. This paper studies such dynamics, using a newly constructed recombinant adenovirus type-5 (Ad5 that expresses enhanced jellyfish green fluorescent protein (EGFP, AdEGFPuci, and grows on human 293 embryonic kidney epithelial cells, allowing us to track cell numbers and spatial patterns over time. The cells are arranged in a two-dimensional setting and allow virus spread to occur only to target cells within the local neighborhood. Despite the simplicity of the setup, complex dynamics are observed. Experiments gave rise to three spatial patterns that we call "hollow ring structure", "filled ring structure", and "disperse pattern". An agent-based, stochastic computational model is used to simulate and interpret the experiments. The model can reproduce the experimentally observed patterns, and identifies key parameters that determine which pattern of virus growth arises. The model is further used to study the long-term outcome of the dynamics for the different growth patterns, and to investigate conditions under which the virus population eliminates the target cells. We find that both the filled ring structure and disperse pattern of initial expansion are indicative of treatment failure, where target cells persist in the long run. The hollow ring structure is associated with either target cell extinction or low-level persistence, both of which can be viewed as treatment success. Interestingly, it is found that equilibrium properties of ordinary differential equations describing the

  1. Nonlinear and Complex Dynamics in Economics

    OpenAIRE

    William Barnett; Apostolos Serletis; Demitre Serletis

    2012-01-01

    This paper is an up-to-date survey of the state-of-the-art in dynamical systems theory relevant to high levels of dynamical complexity, characterizing chaos and near chaos, as commonly found in the physical sciences. The paper also surveys applications in economics and �finance. This survey does not include bifurcation analyses at lower levels of dynamical complexity, such as Hopf and transcritical bifurcations, which arise closer to the stable region of the parameter space. We discuss the...

  2. Dynamical systems in population biology

    CERN Document Server

    Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-01-01

    This research monograph provides an introduction to the theory of nonautonomous semiflows with applications to population dynamics. It develops dynamical system approaches to various evolutionary equations such as difference, ordinary, functional, and partial differential equations, and pays more attention to periodic and almost periodic phenomena. The presentation includes persistence theory, monotone dynamics, periodic and almost periodic semiflows, basic reproduction ratios, traveling waves, and global analysis of prototypical population models in ecology and epidemiology. Research mathematicians working with nonlinear dynamics, particularly those interested in applications to biology, will find this book useful. It may also be used as a textbook or as supplementary reading for a graduate special topics course on the theory and applications of dynamical systems. Dr. Xiao-Qiang Zhao is a University Research Professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, Canada. His main research interests involve applied...

  3. The interplay between human population dynamics and flooding in Bangladesh: a spatial analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    di Baldassarre, G.; Yan, K.; Ferdous, MD. R.; Brandimarte, L.

    2014-09-01

    In Bangladesh, socio-economic and hydrological processes are both extremely dynamic and inter-related. Human population patterns are often explained as a response, or adaptation strategy, to physical events, e.g. flooding, salt-water intrusion, and erosion. Meanwhile, these physical processes are exacerbated, or mitigated, by diverse human interventions, e.g. river diversion, levees and polders. In this context, this paper describes an attempt to explore the complex interplay between floods and societies in Bangladeshi floodplains. In particular, we performed a spatially-distributed analysis of the interactions between the dynamics of human settlements and flood inundation patterns. To this end, we used flooding simulation results from inundation modelling, LISFLOOD-FP, as well as global datasets of population distribution data, such as the Gridded Population of the World (20 years, from 1990 to 2010) and HYDE datasets (310 years, from 1700 to 2010). The outcomes of this work highlight the behaviour of Bangladeshi floodplains as complex human-water systems and indicate the need to go beyond the traditional narratives based on one-way cause-effects, e.g. climate change leading to migrations.

  4. Pinning Synchronization of Switched Complex Dynamical Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liming Du

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Network topology and node dynamics play a key role in forming synchronization of complex networks. Unfortunately there is no effective synchronization criterion for pinning synchronization of complex dynamical networks with switching topology. In this paper, pinning synchronization of complex dynamical networks with switching topology is studied. Two basic problems are considered: one is pinning synchronization of switched complex networks under arbitrary switching; the other is pinning synchronization of switched complex networks by design of switching when synchronization cannot achieved by using any individual connection topology alone. For the two problems, common Lyapunov function method and single Lyapunov function method are used respectively, some global synchronization criteria are proposed and the designed switching law is given. Finally, simulation results verify the validity of the results.

  5. Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Celik, C.; Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we study the stability analysis of equilibrium points of population dynamics with delay when the Allee effect occurs at low population density. Mainly, our mathematical results and numerical simulations point to the stabilizing effect of the Allee effects on population dynamics with delay

  6. Exploiting Fast-Variables to Understand Population Dynamics and Evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Constable, George W. A.; McKane, Alan J.

    2017-11-01

    We describe a continuous-time modelling framework for biological population dynamics that accounts for demographic noise. In the spirit of the methodology used by statistical physicists, transitions between the states of the system are caused by individual events while the dynamics are described in terms of the time-evolution of a probability density function. In general, the application of the diffusion approximation still leaves a description that is quite complex. However, in many biological applications one or more of the processes happen slowly relative to the system's other processes, and the dynamics can be approximated as occurring within a slow low-dimensional subspace. We review these time-scale separation arguments and analyse the more simple stochastic dynamics that result in a number of cases. We stress that it is important to retain the demographic noise derived in this way, and emphasise this point by showing that it can alter the direction of selection compared to the prediction made from an analysis of the corresponding deterministic model.

  7. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  8. Structural stability of nonlinear population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cenci, Simone; Saavedra, Serguei

    2018-01-01

    In population dynamics, the concept of structural stability has been used to quantify the tolerance of a system to environmental perturbations. Yet, measuring the structural stability of nonlinear dynamical systems remains a challenging task. Focusing on the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, because of the linearity of the functional response, it has been possible to measure the conditions compatible with a structurally stable system. However, the functional response of biological communities is not always well approximated by deterministic linear functions. Thus, it is unclear the extent to which this linear approach can be generalized to other population dynamics models. Here, we show that the same approach used to investigate the classic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, which is called the structural approach, can be applied to a much larger class of nonlinear models. This class covers a large number of nonlinear functional responses that have been intensively investigated both theoretically and experimentally. We also investigate the applicability of the structural approach to stochastic dynamical systems and we provide a measure of structural stability for finite populations. Overall, we show that the structural approach can provide reliable and tractable information about the qualitative behavior of many nonlinear dynamical systems.

  9. Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2017-01-01

    The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

  10. An individual-based probabilistic model for simulating fisheries population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Cao

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of stock assessment is to support managers to provide intelligent decisions regarding removal from fish populations. Errors in assessment models may have devastating impacts on the population fitness and negative impacts on the economy of the resource users. Thus, accuracte estimations of population size, growth rates are critical for success. Evaluating and testing the behavior and performance of stock assessment models and assessing the consequences of model mis-specification and the impact of management strategies requires an operating model that accurately describe the dynamics of the target species, and can resolve spatial and seasonal changes. In addition, the most thorough evaluations of assessment models use an operating model that takes a different form than the assessment model. This paper presents an individual-based probabilistic model used to simulate the complex dynamics of populations and their associated fisheries. Various components of population dynamics are expressed as random Bernoulli trials in the model and detailed life and fishery histories of each individual are tracked over their life span. The simulation model is designed to be flexible so it can be used for different species and fisheries. It can simulate mixing among multiple stocks and link stock-recruit relationships to environmental factors. Furthermore, the model allows for flexibility in sub-models (e.g., growth and recruitment and model assumptions (e.g., age- or size-dependent selectivity. This model enables the user to conduct various simulation studies, including testing the performance of assessment models under different assumptions, assessing the impacts of model mis-specification and evaluating management strategies.

  11. Population dynamics on heterogeneous bacterial substrates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mobius, Wolfram; Murray, Andrew W.; Nelson, David R.

    2012-02-01

    How species invade new territories and how these range expansions influence the population's genotypes are important questions in the field of population genetics. The majority of work addressing these questions focuses on homogeneous environments. Much less is known about the population dynamics and population genetics when the environmental conditions are heterogeneous in space. To better understand range expansions in two-dimensional heterogeneous environments, we employ a system of bacteria and bacteriophage, the viruses of bacteria. Thereby, the bacteria constitute the environment in which a population of bacteriophages expands. The spread of phage constitutes itself in lysis of bacteria and thus formation of clear regions on bacterial lawns, called plaques. We study the population dynamics and genetics of the expanding page for various patterns of environments.

  12. Population dynamics in variable environments

    CERN Document Server

    Tuljapurkar, Shripad

    1990-01-01

    Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to re...

  13. Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goel, A.; Gakkhar, S.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

  14. Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goel, A., E-mail: goelanju23@gmail.com; Gakkhar, S., E-mail: sungkfma@iitr.ernet.in [Department of Mathematics, Indian Institute of Technology, Roorkee, Uttarakhand 247667 (India)

    2016-04-06

    In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

  15. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe-Strogatz integrability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-08-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations.

  16. Dynamics of weakly inhomogeneous oscillator populations: perturbation theory on top of Watanabe–Strogatz integrability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vlasov, Vladimir; Rosenblum, Michael; Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-01-01

    As has been shown by Watanabe and Strogatz (WS) (1993 Phys. Rev. Lett. 70 2391), a population of identical phase oscillators, sine-coupled to a common field, is a partially integrable system: for any ensemble size its dynamics reduce to equations for three collective variables. Here we develop a perturbation approach for weakly nonidentical ensembles. We calculate corrections to the WS dynamics for two types of perturbations: those due to a distribution of natural frequencies and of forcing terms, and those due to small white noise. We demonstrate that in both cases, the complex mean field for which the dynamical equations are written is close to the Kuramoto order parameter, up to the leading order in the perturbation. This supports the validity of the dynamical reduction suggested by Ott and Antonsen (2008 Chaos 18 037113) for weakly inhomogeneous populations. (letter)

  17. Population dynamical responses to climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Forchhammer, Mads; Schmidt, Niels Martin; Høye, Toke Thomas

    2008-01-01

    approaches, we analyse concurrently the influence of climatic variability and trophic interactions on the temporal population dynamics of species in the terrestrial vertebrate community at Zackenberg. We describe and contrast the population dynamics of three predator species (arctic fox Alopex lagopus, stoat...... of arctic fox were not significantly related to changes in lemming abundance, both the stoat and the breeding of long-tailed skua were mainly related to lemming dynamics. The predator-prey system at Zackenberg differentiates from previously described systems in high-arctic Greenland, which, we suggest...

  18. Controlling Complex Systems and Developing Dynamic Technology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avizienis, Audrius Victor

    In complex systems, control and understanding become intertwined. Following Ilya Prigogine, we define complex systems as having control parameters which mediate transitions between distinct modes of dynamical behavior. From this perspective, determining the nature of control parameters and demonstrating the associated dynamical phase transitions are practically equivalent and fundamental to engaging with complexity. In the first part of this work, a control parameter is determined for a non-equilibrium electrochemical system by studying a transition in the morphology of structures produced by an electroless deposition reaction. Specifically, changing the size of copper posts used as the substrate for growing metallic silver structures by the reduction of Ag+ from solution under diffusion-limited reaction conditions causes a dynamical phase transition in the crystal growth process. For Cu posts with edge lengths on the order of one micron, local forces promoting anisotropic growth predominate, and the reaction produces interconnected networks of Ag nanowires. As the post size is increased above 10 microns, the local interfacial growth reaction dynamics couple with the macroscopic diffusion field, leading to spatially propagating instabilities in the electrochemical potential which induce periodic branching during crystal growth, producing dendritic deposits. This result is interesting both as an example of control and understanding in a complex system, and as a useful combination of top-down lithography with bottom-up electrochemical self-assembly. The second part of this work focuses on the technological development of devices fabricated using this non-equilibrium electrochemical process, towards a goal of integrating a complex network as a dynamic functional component in a neuromorphic computing device. Self-assembled networks of silver nanowires were reacted with sulfur to produce interfacial "atomic switches": silver-silver sulfide junctions, which exhibit

  19. Experts' Perspectives Toward a Population Health Approach for Children With Medical Complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnert, Elizabeth S; Coller, Ryan J; Nelson, Bergen B; Thompson, Lindsey R; Chan, Vincent; Padilla, Cesar; Klitzner, Thomas S; Szilagyi, Moira; Chung, Paul J

    2017-08-01

    Because children with medical complexity (CMC) display very different health trajectories, needs, and resource utilization than other children, it is unclear how well traditional conceptions of population health apply to CMC. We sought to identify key health outcome domains for CMC as a step toward determining core health metrics for this distinct population of children. We conducted and analyzed interviews with 23 diverse national experts on CMC to better understand population health for CMC. Interviewees included child and family advocates, health and social service providers, and research, health systems, and policy leaders. We performed thematic content analyses to identify emergent themes regarding population health for CMC. Overall, interviewees conveyed that defining and measuring population health for CMC is an achievable, worthwhile goal. Qualitative themes from interviews included: 1) CMC share unifying characteristics that could serve as the basis for population health outcomes; 2) optimal health for CMC is child specific and dynamic; 3) health of CMC is intertwined with health of families; 4) social determinants of health are especially important for CMC; and 5) measuring population health for CMC faces serious conceptual and logistical challenges. Experts have taken initial steps in defining the population health of CMC. Population health for CMC involves a dynamic concept of health that is attuned to individual, health-related goals for each child. We propose a framework that can guide the identification and development of population health metrics for CMC. Copyright © 2017 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Market Squid Population Dynamics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — This dataset contains population dynamics data on paralarvae, juvenile and adult market squid collected off California and the US Pacific Northwest. These data were...

  1. Lattice dynamics and molecular dynamics simulation of complex materials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chaplot, S.L.

    1997-01-01

    In this article we briefly review the lattice dynamics and molecular dynamics simulation techniques, as used for complex ionic and molecular solids, and demonstrate a number of applications through examples of our work. These computational studies, along with experiments, have provided microscopic insight into the structure and dynamics, phase transitions and thermodynamical properties of a variety of materials including fullerene, high temperature superconducting oxides and geological minerals as a function of pressure and temperature. The computational techniques also allow the study of the structures and dynamics associated with disorder, defects, surfaces, interfaces etc. (author)

  2. Population dynamics and population control of Galium aparine L.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weide, van der R.Y.

    1993-01-01

    The population biology of Galium aparine L. needs to be better understood, in order to be able to rationalize decisions about the short- and long-term control of this weed species for different cropping practices.

    A population dynamics model was developed to

  3. Improving the Complexity of the Lorenz Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    María Pilar Mareca

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A new four-dimensional, hyperchaotic dynamic system, based on Lorenz dynamics, is presented. Besides, the most representative dynamics which may be found in this new system are located in the phase space and are analyzed here. The new system is especially designed to improve the complexity of Lorenz dynamics, which, despite being a paradigm to understand the chaotic dissipative flows, is a very simple example and shows great vulnerability when used in secure communications. Here, we demonstrate the vulnerability of the Lorenz system in a general way. The proposed 4D system increases the complexity of the Lorenz dynamics. The trajectories of the novel system include structures going from chaos to hyperchaos and chaotic-transient solutions. The symmetry and the stability of the proposed system are also studied. First return maps, Poincaré sections, and bifurcation diagrams allow characterizing the global system behavior and locating some coexisting structures. Numerical results about the first return maps, Poincaré cross sections, Lyapunov spectrum, and Kaplan-Yorke dimension demonstrate the complexity of the proposed equations.

  4. Coarse-graining complex dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sibani, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    Continuous Time Random Walks (CTRW) are widely used to coarse-grain the evolution of systems jumping from a metastable sub-set of their configuration space, or trap, to another via rare intermittent events. The multi-scaled behavior typical of complex dynamics is provided by a fat...... macroscopic variables all produce identical long time relaxation behaviors. Hence, CTRW shed no light on the link between microscopic and macroscopic dynamics. We then highlight how a more recent approach, Record Dynamics (RD) provides a viable alternative, based on a very different set of physical ideas......: while CTRW make use of a renewal process involving identical traps of infinite size, RD embodies a dynamical entrenchment into a hierarchy of traps which are finite in size and possess different degrees of meta-stability. We show in particular how RD produces the stretched exponential, power...

  5. Feedback between Population and Evolutionary Dynamics Determines the Fate of Social Microbial Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez, Alvaro; Gore, Jeff

    2013-01-01

    The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50–100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators “spiral” to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the demographic fate

  6. feedback between population and evolutionary dynamics determines the fate of social microbial populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alvaro Sanchez

    Full Text Available The evolutionary spread of cheater strategies can destabilize populations engaging in social cooperative behaviors, thus demonstrating that evolutionary changes can have profound implications for population dynamics. At the same time, the relative fitness of cooperative traits often depends upon population density, thus leading to the potential for bi-directional coupling between population density and the evolution of a cooperative trait. Despite the potential importance of these eco-evolutionary feedback loops in social species, they have not yet been demonstrated experimentally and their ecological implications are poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate the presence of a strong feedback loop between population dynamics and the evolutionary dynamics of a social microbial gene, SUC2, in laboratory yeast populations whose cooperative growth is mediated by the SUC2 gene. We directly visualize eco-evolutionary trajectories of hundreds of populations over 50-100 generations, allowing us to characterize the phase space describing the interplay of evolution and ecology in this system. Small populations collapse despite continual evolution towards increased cooperative allele frequencies; large populations with a sufficient number of cooperators "spiral" to a stable state of coexistence between cooperator and cheater strategies. The presence of cheaters does not significantly affect the equilibrium population density, but it does reduce the resilience of the population as well as its ability to adapt to a rapidly deteriorating environment. Our results demonstrate the potential ecological importance of coupling between evolutionary dynamics and the population dynamics of cooperatively growing organisms, particularly in microbes. Our study suggests that this interaction may need to be considered in order to explain intraspecific variability in cooperative behaviors, and also that this feedback between evolution and ecology can critically affect the

  7. Dynamical complexity changes during two forms of meditation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jin; Hu, Jing; Zhang, Yinhong; Zhang, Xiaofeng

    2011-06-01

    Detection of dynamical complexity changes in natural and man-made systems has deep scientific and practical meaning. We use the base-scale entropy method to analyze dynamical complexity changes for heart rate variability (HRV) series during specific traditional forms of Chinese Chi and Kundalini Yoga meditation techniques in healthy young adults. The results show that dynamical complexity decreases in meditation states for two forms of meditation. Meanwhile, we detected changes in probability distribution of m-words during meditation and explained this changes using probability distribution of sine function. The base-scale entropy method may be used on a wider range of physiologic signals.

  8. Product development projects dynamics and emergent complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Schlick, Christopher

    2016-01-01

    This book primarily explores two topics: the representation of simultaneous, cooperative work processes in product development projects with the help of statistical models, and the assessment of their emergent complexity using a metric from theoretical physics (Effective Measure Complexity, EMC). It is intended to promote more effective management of development projects by shifting the focus from the structural complexity of the product being developed to the dynamic complexity of the development processes involved. The book is divided into four main parts, the first of which provides an introduction to vector autoregression models, periodic vector autoregression models and linear dynamical systems for modeling cooperative work in product development projects. The second part presents theoretical approaches for assessing complexity in the product development environment, while the third highlights and explains closed-form solutions for the complexity metric EMC for vector autoregression models and linear dyn...

  9. Plasmodium vivax Population Structure and Transmission Dynamics in Sabah Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Noor Rain; Barber, Bridget E.; William, Timothy; Norahmad, Nor Azrina; Satsu, Umi Rubiah; Muniandy, Prem Kumar; Ismail, Zakiah; Grigg, Matthew J.; Jelip, Jenarun; Piera, Kim; von Seidlein, Lorenz; Yeo, Tsin W.; Anstey, Nicholas M.; Price, Ric N.; Auburn, Sarah

    2013-01-01

    Despite significant progress in the control of malaria in Malaysia, the complex transmission dynamics of P. vivax continue to challenge national efforts to achieve elimination. To assess the impact of ongoing interventions on P. vivax transmission dynamics in Sabah, we genotyped 9 short tandem repeat markers in a total of 97 isolates (8 recurrences) from across Sabah, with a focus on two districts, Kota Marudu (KM, n = 24) and Kota Kinabalu (KK, n = 21), over a 2 year period. STRUCTURE analysis on the Sabah-wide dataset demonstrated multiple sub-populations. Significant differentiation (F ST  = 0.243) was observed between KM and KK, located just 130 Km apart. Consistent with low endemic transmission, infection complexity was modest in both KM (mean MOI  = 1.38) and KK (mean MOI  = 1.19). However, population diversity remained moderate (H E  = 0.583 in KM and H E  = 0.667 in KK). Temporal trends revealed clonal expansions reflecting epidemic transmission dynamics. The haplotypes of these isolates declined in frequency over time, but persisted at low frequency throughout the study duration. A diverse array of low frequency isolates were detected in both KM and KK, some likely reflecting remnants of previous expansions. In accordance with clonal expansions, high levels of Linkage Disequilibrium (I A S >0.5 [P<0.0001] in KK and KM) declined sharply when identical haplotypes were represented once (I A S  = 0.07 [P = 0.0076] in KM, and I A S = -0.003 [P = 0.606] in KK). All 8 recurrences, likely to be relapses, were homologous to the prior infection. These recurrences may promote the persistence of parasite lineages, sustaining local diversity. In summary, Sabah's shrinking P. vivax population appears to have rendered this low endemic setting vulnerable to epidemic expansions. Migration may play an important role in the introduction of new parasite strains leading to epidemic expansions, with important implications for malaria

  10. More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabel, Michael; Regoes, Roland R; Graw, Frederik

    2017-01-01

    The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

  11. More or less-On the influence of labelling strategies to infer cell population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Gabel

    Full Text Available The adoptive transfer of labelled cell populations has been an essential tool to determine and quantify cellular dynamics. The experimental methods to label and track cells over time range from fluorescent dyes over congenic markers towards single-cell labelling techniques, such as genetic barcodes. While these methods have been widely used to quantify cell differentiation and division dynamics, the extent to which the applied labelling strategy actually affects the quantification of the dynamics has not been determined so far. This is especially important in situations where measurements can only be obtained at a single time point, as e.g. due to organ harvest. To this end, we studied the appropriateness of various labelling strategies as characterised by the number of different labels and the initial number of cells per label to quantify cellular dynamics. We simulated adoptive transfer experiments in systems of various complexity that assumed either homoeostatic cellular turnover or cell expansion dynamics involving various steps of cell differentiation and proliferation. Re-sampling cells at a single time point, we determined the ability of different labelling strategies to recover the underlying kinetics. Our results indicate that cell transition and expansion rates are differently affected by experimental shortcomings, such as loss of cells during transfer or sampling, dependent on the labelling strategy used. Furthermore, uniformly distributed labels in the transferred population generally lead to more robust and less biased results than non-equal label sizes. In addition, our analysis indicates that certain labelling approaches incorporate a systematic bias for the identification of complex cell expansion dynamics.

  12. Rapid Mission Design for Dynamically Complex Environments

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Designing trajectories in dynamically complex environments is very challenging and easily becomes an intractable problem. More complex planning implies potentially...

  13. Complex dynamics and switching transients in periodically forced Filippov prey–predator system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, Guangyao; Qin, Wenjie; Tang, Sanyi

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: •We develop a Filippov prey–predator model with periodic forcing. •The sliding mode dynamics and its domain have been investigated. •The existence and stability of sliding periodic solution have been discussed. •The complex dynamics are addressed through bifurcation analyses. •Switching transients and their biological implications have been discussed. - Abstract: By employing threshold policy control (TPC) in combination with the definition of integrated pest management (IPM), a Filippov prey–predator model with periodic forcing has been proposed and studied, and the periodic forcing is affected by assuming a periodic variation in the intrinsic growth rate of the prey. This study aims to address how the periodic forcing and TPC affect the pest control. To do this, the sliding mode dynamics and sliding mode domain have been addressed firstly by using Utkin’s equivalent control method, and then the existence and stability of sliding periodic solution are investigated. Furthermore, the complex dynamics including multiple attractors coexistence, period adding sequences and chaotic solutions with respect to bifurcation parameters of forcing amplitude and economic threshold (ET) have been investigated numerically in more detail. Finally the switching transients associated with pest outbreaks and their biological implications have been discussed. Our results indicate that the sliding periodic solution could be globally stable, and consequently the prey or pest population can be controlled such that its density falls below the economic injury level (EIL). Moreover, the switching transients have both advantages and disadvantages concerning pest control, and the magnitude and frequency of switching transients depend on the initial values of both populations, forcing amplitude and ET

  14. Strongly Deterministic Population Dynamics in Closed Microbial Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zak Frentz

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Biological systems are influenced by random processes at all scales, including molecular, demographic, and behavioral fluctuations, as well as by their interactions with a fluctuating environment. We previously established microbial closed ecosystems (CES as model systems for studying the role of random events and the emergent statistical laws governing population dynamics. Here, we present long-term measurements of population dynamics using replicate digital holographic microscopes that maintain CES under precisely controlled external conditions while automatically measuring abundances of three microbial species via single-cell imaging. With this system, we measure spatiotemporal population dynamics in more than 60 replicate CES over periods of months. In contrast to previous studies, we observe strongly deterministic population dynamics in replicate systems. Furthermore, we show that previously discovered statistical structure in abundance fluctuations across replicate CES is driven by variation in external conditions, such as illumination. In particular, we confirm the existence of stable ecomodes governing the correlations in population abundances of three species. The observation of strongly deterministic dynamics, together with stable structure of correlations in response to external perturbations, points towards a possibility of simple macroscopic laws governing microbial systems despite numerous stochastic events present on microscopic levels.

  15. How Resource Phenology Affects Consumer Population Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bewick, Sharon; Cantrell, R Stephen; Cosner, Chris; Fagan, William F

    2016-02-01

    Climate change drives uneven phenology shifts across taxa, and this can result in changes to the phenological match between interacting species. Shifts in the relative phenology of partner species are well documented, but few studies have addressed the effects of such changes on population dynamics. To explore this, we develop a phenologically explicit model describing consumer-resource interactions. Focusing on scenarios for univoltine insects, we show how changes in resource phenology can be reinterpreted as transformations in the year-to-year recursion relationships defining consumer population dynamics. This perspective provides a straightforward path for interpreting the long-term population consequences of phenology change. Specifically, by relating the outcome of phenological shifts to species traits governing recursion relationships (e.g., consumer fecundity or competitive scenario), we demonstrate how changes in relative phenology can force systems into different dynamical regimes, with major implications for resource management, conservation, and other areas of applied dynamics.

  16. Complex systems and networks dynamics, controls and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Yu, Xinghuo; Chen, Guanrong; Yu, Wenwu

    2016-01-01

    This elementary book provides some state-of-the-art research results on broad disciplinary sciences on complex networks. It presents an in-depth study with detailed description of dynamics, controls and applications of complex networks. The contents of this book can be summarized as follows. First, the dynamics of complex networks, for example, the cluster dynamic analysis by using kernel spectral methods, community detection algorithms in bipartite networks, epidemiological modeling with demographics and epidemic spreading on multi-layer networks, are studied. Second, the controls of complex networks are investigated including topics like distributed finite-time cooperative control of multi-agent systems by applying homogenous-degree and Lyapunov methods, composite finite-time containment control for disturbed second-order multi-agent systems, fractional-order observer design of multi-agent systems, chaos control and anticontrol of complex systems via Parrondos game and many more. Third, the applications of ...

  17. Complex dynamic in ecological time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter Turchin; Andrew D. Taylor

    1992-01-01

    Although the possibility of complex dynamical behaviors-limit cycles, quasiperiodic oscillations, and aperiodic chaos-has been recognized theoretically, most ecologists are skeptical of their importance in nature. In this paper we develop a methodology for reconstructing endogenous (or deterministic) dynamics from ecological time series. Our method consists of fitting...

  18. Modelling the Dynamics of an Aedes albopictus Population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Anung Basuki

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available We present a methodology for modelling population dynamics with formal means of computer science. This allows unambiguous description of systems and application of analysis tools such as simulators and model checkers. In particular, the dynamics of a population of Aedes albopictus (a species of mosquito and its modelling with the Stochastic Calculus of Looping Sequences (Stochastic CLS are considered. The use of Stochastic CLS to model population dynamics requires an extension which allows environmental events (such as changes in the temperature and rainfalls to be taken into account. A simulator for the constructed model is developed via translation into the specification language Maude, and used to compare the dynamics obtained from the model with real data.

  19. Traffic Dynamics on Complex Networks: A Survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shengyong Chen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Traffic dynamics on complex networks are intriguing in recent years due to their practical implications in real communication networks. In this survey, we give a brief review of studies on traffic routing dynamics on complex networks. Strategies for improving transport efficiency, including designing efficient routing strategies and making appropriate adjustments to the underlying network structure, are introduced in this survey. Finally, a few open problems are discussed in this survey.

  20. Inferring network topology from complex dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shandilya, Srinivas Gorur; Timme, Marc

    2011-01-01

    Inferring the network topology from dynamical observations is a fundamental problem pervading research on complex systems. Here, we present a simple, direct method for inferring the structural connection topology of a network, given an observation of one collective dynamical trajectory. The general theoretical framework is applicable to arbitrary network dynamical systems described by ordinary differential equations. No interference (external driving) is required and the type of dynamics is hardly restricted in any way. In particular, the observed dynamics may be arbitrarily complex; stationary, invariant or transient; synchronous or asynchronous and chaotic or periodic. Presupposing a knowledge of the functional form of the dynamical units and of the coupling functions between them, we present an analytical solution to the inverse problem of finding the network topology from observing a time series of state variables only. Robust reconstruction is achieved in any sufficiently long generic observation of the system. We extend our method to simultaneously reconstructing both the entire network topology and all parameters appearing linear in the system's equations of motion. Reconstruction of network topology and system parameters is viable even in the presence of external noise that distorts the original dynamics substantially. The method provides a conceptually new step towards reconstructing a variety of real-world networks, including gene and protein interaction networks and neuronal circuits.

  1. Complexities, Catastrophes and Cities: Emergency Dynamics in Varying Scenarios and Urban Topologies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narzisi, Giuseppe; Mysore, Venkatesh; Byeon, Jeewoong; Mishra, Bud

    Complex Systems are often characterized by agents capable of interacting with each other dynamically, often in non-linear and non-intuitive ways. Trying to characterize their dynamics often results in partial differential equations that are difficult, if not impossible, to solve. A large city or a city-state is an example of such an evolving and self-organizing complex environment that efficiently adapts to different and numerous incremental changes to its social, cultural and technological infrastructure [1]. One powerful technique for analyzing such complex systems is Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) [9], which has seen an increasing number of applications in social science, economics and also biology. The agent-based paradigm facilitates easier transfer of domain specific knowledge into a model. ABM provides a natural way to describe systems in which the overall dynamics can be described as the result of the behavior of populations of autonomous components: agents, with a fixed set of rules based on local information and possible central control. As part of the NYU Center for Catastrophe Preparedness and Response (CCPR1), we have been exploring how ABM can serve as a powerful simulation technique for analyzing large-scale urban disasters. The central problem in Disaster Management is that it is not immediately apparent whether the current emergency plans are robust against such sudden, rare and punctuated catastrophic events.

  2. Stochastic population dynamics in populations of western terrestrial garter snakes with divergent life histories.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, David A; Clark, William R; Arnold, Stevan J; Bronikowski, Anne M

    2011-08-01

    Comparative evaluations of population dynamics in species with temporal and spatial variation in life-history traits are rare because they require long-term demographic time series from multiple populations. We present such an analysis using demographic data collected during the interval 1978-1996 for six populations of western terrestrial garter snakes (Thamnophis elegans) from two evolutionarily divergent ecotypes. Three replicate populations from a slow-living ecotype, found in mountain meadows of northeastern California, were characterized by individuals that develop slowly, mature late, reproduce infrequently with small reproductive effort, and live longer than individuals of three populations of a fast-living ecotype found at lakeshore locales. We constructed matrix population models for each of the populations based on 8-13 years of data per population and analyzed both deterministic dynamics based on mean annual vital rates and stochastic dynamics incorporating annual variation in vital rates. (1) Contributions of highly variable vital rates to fitness (lambda(s)) were buffered against the negative effects of stochastic variation, and this relationship was consistent with differences between the meadow (M-slow) and lakeshore (L-fast) ecotypes. (2) Annual variation in the proportion of gravid females had the greatest negative effect among all vital rates on lambda(s). The magnitude of variation in the proportion of gravid females and its effect on lambda(s) was greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. (3) Variation in the proportion of gravid females, in turn, depended on annual variation in prey availability, and its effect on lambda(s) was 4 23 times greater in M-slow than L-fast populations. In addition to differences in stochastic dynamics between ecotypes, we also found higher mean mortality rates across all age classes in the L-fast populations. Our results suggest that both deterministic and stochastic selective forces have affected the evolution of

  3. Pronounced fixation, strong population differentiation and complex population history in the Canary Islands blue tit subspecies complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansson, Bengt; Ljungqvist, Marcus; Illera, Juan-Carlos; Kvist, Laura

    2014-01-01

    Evolutionary molecular studies of island radiations may lead to insights in the role of vicariance, founder events, population size and drift in the processes of population differentiation. We evaluate the degree of population genetic differentiation and fixation of the Canary Islands blue tit subspecies complex using microsatellite markers and aim to get insights in the population history using coalescence based methods. The Canary Island populations were strongly genetically differentiated and had reduced diversity with pronounced fixation including many private alleles. In population structure models, the relationship between the central island populations (La Gomera, Tenerife and Gran Canaria) and El Hierro was difficult to disentangle whereas the two European populations showed consistent clustering, the two eastern islands (Fuerteventura and Lanzarote) and Morocco weak clustering, and La Palma a consistent unique lineage. Coalescence based models suggested that the European mainland forms an outgroup to the Afrocanarian population, a split between the western island group (La Palma and El Hierro) and the central island group, and recent splits between the three central islands, and between the two eastern islands and Morocco, respectively. It is clear that strong genetic drift and low level of concurrent gene flow among populations have shaped complex allelic patterns of fixation and skewed frequencies over the archipelago. However, understanding the population history remains challenging; in particular, the pattern of extreme divergence with low genetic diversity and yet unique genetic material in the Canary Island system requires an explanation. A potential scenario is population contractions of a historically large and genetically variable Afrocanarian population, with vicariance and drift following in the wake. The suggestion from sequence-based analyses of a Pleistocene extinction of a substantial part of North Africa and a Pleistocene/Holocene eastward

  4. Pronounced fixation, strong population differentiation and complex population history in the Canary Islands blue tit subspecies complex.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bengt Hansson

    Full Text Available Evolutionary molecular studies of island radiations may lead to insights in the role of vicariance, founder events, population size and drift in the processes of population differentiation. We evaluate the degree of population genetic differentiation and fixation of the Canary Islands blue tit subspecies complex using microsatellite markers and aim to get insights in the population history using coalescence based methods. The Canary Island populations were strongly genetically differentiated and had reduced diversity with pronounced fixation including many private alleles. In population structure models, the relationship between the central island populations (La Gomera, Tenerife and Gran Canaria and El Hierro was difficult to disentangle whereas the two European populations showed consistent clustering, the two eastern islands (Fuerteventura and Lanzarote and Morocco weak clustering, and La Palma a consistent unique lineage. Coalescence based models suggested that the European mainland forms an outgroup to the Afrocanarian population, a split between the western island group (La Palma and El Hierro and the central island group, and recent splits between the three central islands, and between the two eastern islands and Morocco, respectively. It is clear that strong genetic drift and low level of concurrent gene flow among populations have shaped complex allelic patterns of fixation and skewed frequencies over the archipelago. However, understanding the population history remains challenging; in particular, the pattern of extreme divergence with low genetic diversity and yet unique genetic material in the Canary Island system requires an explanation. A potential scenario is population contractions of a historically large and genetically variable Afrocanarian population, with vicariance and drift following in the wake. The suggestion from sequence-based analyses of a Pleistocene extinction of a substantial part of North Africa and a Pleistocene

  5. Complexity: Outline of the NWO strategic theme Dynamics of complex systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgers, G.; Doelman, A.; Frenken, K.; Hogeweg, P.; Hommes, C.; van der Maas, H.; Mulder, B.; Stam, K.; van Steen, M.; Zandee, L.

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of complex systems is one of the program 5 themes in the NWO (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research) strategy for the years 2007-2011. The ambition of the current proposal is to initiate integrated activities in the field of complex systems within the Netherlands, to provide

  6. Complexity : outline of the NWO strategic theme dynamics of complex systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Burgers, G.; Doelman, A.; Frenken, K.; Hogeweg, P.; Hommes, C.; Maas, van der H.; Mulder, B.; Stam, K.; Steen, van M.; Zandee, L.

    2008-01-01

    Dynamics of complex systems is one of the program 5 themes in the NWO (Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research) strategy for the years 2007-2011. The ambition of the current proposal is to initiate integrated activities in the field of complex systems within the Netherlands, to provide

  7. The Effect of Variation in Developmental Mode on the Population Dynamics of a Spionid Polychaete (Pygospio elegans) in a Heterogeneous Environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thonig, Anne

    by the short life span of P. elegans and sweepstakes reproductive success. Additionally, stochastic events, such as rain storms, can lead to abrupt drops in salinity which can be detrimental for P. elegans and hence introduce further changes in population structure. Seasonal dynamics, including sexual...... of poecilogonous species that show a polymorphism in developmental mode might be more useful than are comparisons between species, since no confounding effects due to speciation arise. In this study, I documented the population ecology and genetics of the poecilogonous polychaete P. elegans and investigated...... the impact of abiotic and biotic variables on population dynamics. Four focal populations from the Isefjord-RoskildeFjord estuary complex, Denmark were sampled over one year. I observed highly dynamic population structure in both size cohort data and population genetic data that is possibly explained...

  8. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R.

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  9. Evolutionary dynamics with fluctuating population sizes and strong mutualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chotibut, Thiparat; Nelson, David R

    2015-08-01

    Game theory ideas provide a useful framework for studying evolutionary dynamics in a well-mixed environment. This approach, however, typically enforces a strictly fixed overall population size, deemphasizing natural growth processes. We study a competitive Lotka-Volterra model, with number fluctuations, that accounts for natural population growth and encompasses interaction scenarios typical of evolutionary games. We show that, in an appropriate limit, the model describes standard evolutionary games with both genetic drift and overall population size fluctuations. However, there are also regimes where a varying population size can strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics. We focus on the strong mutualism scenario and demonstrate that standard evolutionary game theory fails to describe our simulation results. We then analytically and numerically determine fixation probabilities as well as mean fixation times using matched asymptotic expansions, taking into account the population size degree of freedom. These results elucidate the interplay between population dynamics and evolutionary dynamics in well-mixed systems.

  10. Dynamics in electron transfer protein complexes

    OpenAIRE

    Bashir, Qamar

    2010-01-01

    Recent studies have provided experimental evidence for the existence of an encounter complex, a transient intermediate in the formation of protein complexes. We have used paramagnetic relaxation enhancement NMR spectroscopy in combination with Monte Carlo simulations to characterize and visualize the ensemble of encounter orientations in the short-lived electron transfer complex of yeast Cc and CcP. The complete conformational space sampled by the protein molecules during the dynamic part of ...

  11. Chaotic, fractional, and complex dynamics new insights and perspectives

    CERN Document Server

    Macau, Elbert; Sanjuan, Miguel

    2018-01-01

    The book presents nonlinear, chaotic and fractional dynamics, complex systems and networks, together with cutting-edge research on related topics. The fifteen chapters – written by leading scientists working in the areas of nonlinear, chaotic and fractional dynamics, as well as complex systems and networks – offer an extensive overview of cutting-edge research on a range of topics, including fundamental and applied research. These include but are not limited to aspects of synchronization in complex dynamical systems, universality features in systems with specific fractional dynamics, and chaotic scattering. As such, the book provides an excellent and timely snapshot of the current state of research, blending the insights and experiences of many prominent researchers.

  12. The Complexity of Dynamics in Small Neural Circuits.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Fasoli

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Mean-field approximations are a powerful tool for studying large neural networks. However, they do not describe well the behavior of networks composed of a small number of neurons. In this case, major differences between the mean-field approximation and the real behavior of the network can arise. Yet, many interesting problems in neuroscience involve the study of mesoscopic networks composed of a few tens of neurons. Nonetheless, mathematical methods that correctly describe networks of small size are still rare, and this prevents us to make progress in understanding neural dynamics at these intermediate scales. Here we develop a novel systematic analysis of the dynamics of arbitrarily small networks composed of homogeneous populations of excitatory and inhibitory firing-rate neurons. We study the local bifurcations of their neural activity with an approach that is largely analytically tractable, and we numerically determine the global bifurcations. We find that for strong inhibition these networks give rise to very complex dynamics, caused by the formation of multiple branching solutions of the neural dynamics equations that emerge through spontaneous symmetry-breaking. This qualitative change of the neural dynamics is a finite-size effect of the network, that reveals qualitative and previously unexplored differences between mesoscopic cortical circuits and their mean-field approximation. The most important consequence of spontaneous symmetry-breaking is the ability of mesoscopic networks to regulate their degree of functional heterogeneity, which is thought to help reducing the detrimental effect of noise correlations on cortical information processing.

  13. Entropy for the Complexity of Physiological Signal Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaohua Douglas

    2017-01-01

    Recently, the rapid development of large data storage technologies, mobile network technology, and portable medical devices makes it possible to measure, record, store, and track analysis of biological dynamics. Portable noninvasive medical devices are crucial to capture individual characteristics of biological dynamics. The wearable noninvasive medical devices and the analysis/management of related digital medical data will revolutionize the management and treatment of diseases, subsequently resulting in the establishment of a new healthcare system. One of the key features that can be extracted from the data obtained by wearable noninvasive medical device is the complexity of physiological signals, which can be represented by entropy of biological dynamics contained in the physiological signals measured by these continuous monitoring medical devices. Thus, in this chapter I present the major concepts of entropy that are commonly used to measure the complexity of biological dynamics. The concepts include Shannon entropy, Kolmogorov entropy, Renyi entropy, approximate entropy, sample entropy, and multiscale entropy. I also demonstrate an example of using entropy for the complexity of glucose dynamics.

  14. Micro-Level Affect Dynamics in Psychopathology Viewed From Complex Dynamical System Theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wichers, M.; Wigman, J. T. W.; Myin-Germeys, I.

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses the role of moment-to-moment affect dynamics in mental disorder and aims to integrate recent literature on this topic in the context of complex dynamical system theory. First, we will review the relevance of temporal and contextual aspects of affect dynamics in relation to

  15. Advances in dynamics, patterns, cognition challenges in complexity

    CERN Document Server

    Pikovsky, Arkady; Rulkov, Nikolai; Tsimring, Lev

    2017-01-01

    This book focuses on recent progress in complexity research based on the fundamental nonlinear dynamical and statistical theory of oscillations, waves, chaos, and structures far from equilibrium. Celebrating seminal contributions to the field by Prof. M. I. Rabinovich of the University of California at San Diego, this volume brings together perspectives on both the fundamental aspects of complexity studies, as well as in applications in different fields ranging from granular patterns to understanding of the cognitive brain and mind dynamics. The slate of world-class authors review recent achievements that together present a broad and coherent coverage of modern research in complexity greater than the sum of its parts. Presents the most up-to-date developments in the studies of complexity Combines basic and applied aspects Links background nonlinear theory of oscillations and waves with modern approaches Allows readers to recognize general dynamical principles across the applications fields.

  16. Allee effects on population dynamics in continuous (overlapping) case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merdan, H.; Duman, O.; Akin, O.; Celik, C.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the stability analysis of equilibrium points of a continuous population dynamics with delay under the Allee effect which occurs at low population density. The mathematical results and numerical simulations show the stabilizing role of the Allee effects on the stability of the equilibrium point of this population dynamics.

  17. Analysis of Population Dynamics in World Economy

    OpenAIRE

    Martin, Gress

    2011-01-01

    Population dynamics is an important topic in current world economy. The size and growth of population have an impact on economic growth and development of individual countries and vice versa, economic development influences demographic variables in a country. The aim of the article is to analyze historical development of world population, population stock change and relations between population stock change and economic development.

  18. Design tools for complex dynamic security systems.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Byrne, Raymond Harry; Rigdon, James Brian; Rohrer, Brandon Robinson; Laguna, Glenn A.; Robinett, Rush D. III (.; ); Groom, Kenneth Neal; Wilson, David Gerald; Bickerstaff, Robert J.; Harrington, John J.

    2007-01-01

    The development of tools for complex dynamic security systems is not a straight forward engineering task but, rather, a scientific task where discovery of new scientific principles and math is necessary. For years, scientists have observed complex behavior but have had difficulty understanding it. Prominent examples include: insect colony organization, the stock market, molecular interactions, fractals, and emergent behavior. Engineering such systems will be an even greater challenge. This report explores four tools for engineered complex dynamic security systems: Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, Percolation Theory, Graph Theory, and Exergy/Entropy Theory. Additionally, enabling hardware technology for next generation security systems are described: a 100 node wireless sensor network, unmanned ground vehicle and unmanned aerial vehicle.

  19. Rapid evolution leads to differential population dynamics and top-down control in resurrected Daphnia populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goitom, Eyerusalem; Kilsdonk, Laurens J; Brans, Kristien; Jansen, Mieke; Lemmens, Pieter; De Meester, Luc

    2018-01-01

    There is growing evidence of rapid genetic adaptation of natural populations to environmental change, opening the perspective that evolutionary trait change may subsequently impact ecological processes such as population dynamics, community composition, and ecosystem functioning. To study such eco-evolutionary feedbacks in natural populations, however, requires samples across time. Here, we capitalize on a resurrection ecology study that documented rapid and adaptive evolution in a natural population of the water flea Daphnia magna in response to strong changes in predation pressure by fish, and carry out a follow-up mesocosm experiment to test whether the observed genetic changes influence population dynamics and top-down control of phytoplankton. We inoculated populations of the water flea D. magna derived from three time periods of the same natural population known to have genetically adapted to changes in predation pressure in replicate mesocosms and monitored both Daphnia population densities and phytoplankton biomass in the presence and absence of fish. Our results revealed differences in population dynamics and top-down control of algae between mesocosms harboring populations from the time period before, during, and after a peak in fish predation pressure caused by human fish stocking. The differences, however, deviated from our a priori expectations. An S-map approach on time series revealed that the interactions between adults and juveniles strongly impacted the dynamics of populations and their top-down control on algae in the mesocosms, and that the strength of these interactions was modulated by rapid evolution as it occurred in nature. Our study provides an example of an evolutionary response that fundamentally alters the processes structuring population dynamics and impacts ecosystem features.

  20. Complex economic dynamics: Chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chian, Abraham C.-L.; Rempel, Erico L.; Rogers, Colin

    2006-01-01

    Complex economic dynamics is studied by a forced oscillator model of business cycles. The technique of numerical modeling is applied to characterize the fundamental properties of complex economic systems which exhibit multiscale and multistability behaviors, as well as coexistence of order and chaos. In particular, we focus on the dynamics and structure of unstable periodic orbits and chaotic saddles within a periodic window of the bifurcation diagram, at the onset of a saddle-node bifurcation and of an attractor merging crisis, and in the chaotic regions associated with type-I intermittency and crisis-induced intermittency, in non-linear economic cycles. Inside a periodic window, chaotic saddles are responsible for the transient motion preceding convergence to a periodic or a chaotic attractor. The links between chaotic saddles, crisis and intermittency in complex economic dynamics are discussed. We show that a chaotic attractor is composed of chaotic saddles and unstable periodic orbits located in the gap regions of chaotic saddles. Non-linear modeling of economic chaotic saddle, crisis and intermittency can improve our understanding of the dynamics of financial intermittency observed in stock market and foreign exchange market. Characterization of the complex dynamics of economic systems is a powerful tool for pattern recognition and forecasting of business and financial cycles, as well as for optimization of management strategy and decision technology

  1. Exponential rise of dynamical complexity in quantum computing through projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgarth, Daniel Klaus; Facchi, Paolo; Giovannetti, Vittorio; Nakazato, Hiromichi; Pascazio, Saverio; Yuasa, Kazuya

    2014-10-10

    The ability of quantum systems to host exponentially complex dynamics has the potential to revolutionize science and technology. Therefore, much effort has been devoted to developing of protocols for computation, communication and metrology, which exploit this scaling, despite formidable technical difficulties. Here we show that the mere frequent observation of a small part of a quantum system can turn its dynamics from a very simple one into an exponentially complex one, capable of universal quantum computation. After discussing examples, we go on to show that this effect is generally to be expected: almost any quantum dynamics becomes universal once 'observed' as outlined above. Conversely, we show that any complex quantum dynamics can be 'purified' into a simpler one in larger dimensions. We conclude by demonstrating that even local noise can lead to an exponentially complex dynamics.

  2. The dynamics of diverse segmental amplifications in populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae adapting to strong selection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payen, Celia; Di Rienzi, Sara C; Ong, Giang T; Pogachar, Jamie L; Sanchez, Joseph C; Sunshine, Anna B; Raghuraman, M K; Brewer, Bonita J; Dunham, Maitreya J

    2014-03-20

    Population adaptation to strong selection can occur through the sequential or parallel accumulation of competing beneficial mutations. The dynamics, diversity, and rate of fixation of beneficial mutations within and between populations are still poorly understood. To study how the mutational landscape varies across populations during adaptation, we performed experimental evolution on seven parallel populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae continuously cultured in limiting sulfate medium. By combining quantitative polymerase chain reaction, array comparative genomic hybridization, restriction digestion and contour-clamped homogeneous electric field gel electrophoresis, and whole-genome sequencing, we followed the trajectory of evolution to determine the identity and fate of beneficial mutations. During a period of 200 generations, the yeast populations displayed parallel evolutionary dynamics that were driven by the coexistence of independent beneficial mutations. Selective amplifications rapidly evolved under this selection pressure, in particular common inverted amplifications containing the sulfate transporter gene SUL1. Compared with single clones, detailed analysis of the populations uncovers a greater complexity whereby multiple subpopulations arise and compete despite a strong selection. The most common evolutionary adaptation to strong selection in these populations grown in sulfate limitation is determined by clonal interference, with adaptive variants both persisting and replacing one another.

  3. Stage-Structured Population Dynamics of AEDES AEGYPTI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Budin, Harun; Ismail, Salemah

    Aedes aegypti is the main vector in the transmission of dengue fever, a vector-borne disease affecting world population living in tropical and sub-tropical countries. Better understanding of the dynamics of its population growth will help in the efforts of controlling the spread of this disease. In looking at the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti, this paper explored the stage-structured modeling of the population growth of the mosquito using the matrix population model. The life cycle of the mosquito was divided into five stages: eggs, larvae, pupae, adult1 and adult2. Developmental rates were obtained for the average Malaysian temperature and these were used in constructing the transition matrix for the matrix model. The model, which was based only on temperature, projected that the population of Aedes aegypti will blow up with time, which is not realistic. For further work, other factors need to be taken into account to obtain a more realistic result.

  4. Perturbation analysis of transient population dynamics using matrix projection models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain

    2016-01-01

    Non-stable populations exhibit short-term transient dynamics: size, growth and structure that are unlike predicted long-term asymptotic stable, stationary or equilibrium dynamics. Understanding transient dynamics of non-stable populations is important for designing effective population management...... these methods to know exactly what is being measured. Despite a wealth of existing methods, I identify some areas that would benefit from further development....

  5. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Kneip, Eva; Van Vuren, Dirk H; Oli, Madan K

    2012-01-01

    Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008) study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis) population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λbounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  6. Living in the branches: population dynamics and ecological processes in dendritic networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, E.H.C.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

    2007-01-01

    Spatial structure regulates and modifies processes at several levels of ecological organization (e.g. individual/genetic, population and community) and is thus a key component of complex systems, where knowledge at a small scale can be insufficient for understanding system behaviour at a larger scale. Recent syntheses outline potential applications of network theory to ecological systems, but do not address the implications of physical structure for network dynamics. There is a specific need to examine how dendritic habitat structure, such as that found in stream, hedgerow and cave networks, influences ecological processes. Although dendritic networks are one type of ecological network, they are distinguished by two fundamental characteristics: (1) both the branches and the nodes serve as habitat, and (2) the specific spatial arrangement and hierarchical organization of these elements interacts with a species' movement behaviour to alter patterns of population distribution and abundance, and community interactions. Here, we summarize existing theory relating to ecological dynamics in dendritic networks, review empirical studies examining the population- and community-level consequences of these networks, and suggest future research integrating spatial pattern and processes in dendritic systems.

  7. Combinations of complex dynamical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Pilgrim, Kevin M

    2003-01-01

    This work is a research-level monograph whose goal is to develop a general combination, decomposition, and structure theory for branched coverings of the two-sphere to itself, regarded as the combinatorial and topological objects which arise in the classification of certain holomorphic dynamical systems on the Riemann sphere. It is intended for researchers interested in the classification of those complex one-dimensional dynamical systems which are in some loose sense tame. The program is motivated by the dictionary between the theories of iterated rational maps and Kleinian groups.

  8. Complex networks: Dynamics and security

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    This paper presents a perspective in the study of complex networks by focusing on how dynamics may affect network security under attacks. ... Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Arizona State University, Tempe, Arizona 85287, USA; Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil ...

  9. Nonbreeding-Season Drivers of Population Dynamics in Seasonal Migrants: Conservation Parallels Across Taxa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna M. Calvert

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available For seasonal migrants, logistical constraints have often limited conservation efforts to improving survival and reproduction during the breeding season only. Yet, mounting empirical evidence suggests that events occurring throughout the migratory life cycle can critically alter the demography of many migrant species. Herein, we build upon recent syntheses of avian migration research to review the role of non-breeding seasons in determining the population dynamics and fitness of diverse migratory taxa, including salmonid fishes, marine mammals, ungulates, sea turtles, butterflies, and numerous bird groups. We discuss several similarities across these varied migrants: (i non-breeding survivorship tends to be a strong driver of population growth; (ii non-breeding events can affect fitness in subsequent seasons through seasonal interactions at individual- and population-levels; (iii broad-scale climatic influences often alter non-breeding resources and migration timing, and may amplify population impacts through covariation among seasonal vital rates; and (iv changes to both stationary and migratory non-breeding habitats can have important consequences for abundance and population trends. Finally, we draw on these patterns to recommend that future conservation research for seasonal migrants will benefit from: (1 more explicit recognition of the important parallels among taxonomically diverse migratory animals; (2 an expanded research perspective focused on quantification of all seasonal vital rates and their interactions; and (3 the development of detailed population projection models that account for complexity and uncertainty in migrant population dynamics.

  10. Complex networks under dynamic repair model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaoqi, Fu; Ying, Wang; Kun, Zhao; Yangjun, Gao

    2018-01-01

    Invulnerability is not the only factor of importance when considering complex networks' security. It is also critical to have an effective and reasonable repair strategy. Existing research on network repair is confined to the static model. The dynamic model makes better use of the redundant capacity of repaired nodes and repairs the damaged network more efficiently than the static model; however, the dynamic repair model is complex and polytropic. In this paper, we construct a dynamic repair model and systematically describe the energy-transfer relationships between nodes in the repair process of the failure network. Nodes are divided into three types, corresponding to three structures. We find that the strong coupling structure is responsible for secondary failure of the repaired nodes and propose an algorithm that can select the most suitable targets (nodes or links) to repair the failure network with minimal cost. Two types of repair strategies are identified, with different effects under the two energy-transfer rules. The research results enable a more flexible approach to network repair.

  11. Automated design of complex dynamic systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michiel Hermans

    Full Text Available Several fields of study are concerned with uniting the concept of computation with that of the design of physical systems. For example, a recent trend in robotics is to design robots in such a way that they require a minimal control effort. Another example is found in the domain of photonics, where recent efforts try to benefit directly from the complex nonlinear dynamics to achieve more efficient signal processing. The underlying goal of these and similar research efforts is to internalize a large part of the necessary computations within the physical system itself by exploiting its inherent non-linear dynamics. This, however, often requires the optimization of large numbers of system parameters, related to both the system's structure as well as its material properties. In addition, many of these parameters are subject to fabrication variability or to variations through time. In this paper we apply a machine learning algorithm to optimize physical dynamic systems. We show that such algorithms, which are normally applied on abstract computational entities, can be extended to the field of differential equations and used to optimize an associated set of parameters which determine their behavior. We show that machine learning training methodologies are highly useful in designing robust systems, and we provide a set of both simple and complex examples using models of physical dynamical systems. Interestingly, the derived optimization method is intimately related to direct collocation a method known in the field of optimal control. Our work suggests that the application domains of both machine learning and optimal control have a largely unexplored overlapping area which envelopes a novel design methodology of smart and highly complex physical systems.

  12. Dynamics of a complex quantum magnet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landry, James W.; Coppersmith, S. N.

    2003-01-01

    We have computed the low energy quantum states and low frequency dynamical susceptibility of complex quantum spin systems in the limit of strong interactions, obtaining exact results for system sizes enormously larger than accessible previously. The ground state is a complex superposition of a substantial fraction of all the classical ground states, and yet the dynamical susceptibility exhibits sharp resonances reminiscent of the behavior of single spins. These results show that strongly interacting quantum systems can organize to generate coherent excitations and shed light on recent experiments demonstrating that coherent excitations are present in a disordered spin liquid. The dependence of the energy spectra on system size differs qualitatively from that of the energy spectra of random undirected bipartite graphs with similar statistics, implying that strong interactions are giving rise to these unusual spectral properties

  13. A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Evan S Schaffer

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

  14. A complex-valued firing-rate model that approximates the dynamics of spiking networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaffer, Evan S; Ostojic, Srdjan; Abbott, L F

    2013-10-01

    Firing-rate models provide an attractive approach for studying large neural networks because they can be simulated rapidly and are amenable to mathematical analysis. Traditional firing-rate models assume a simple form in which the dynamics are governed by a single time constant. These models fail to replicate certain dynamic features of populations of spiking neurons, especially those involving synchronization. We present a complex-valued firing-rate model derived from an eigenfunction expansion of the Fokker-Planck equation and apply it to the linear, quadratic and exponential integrate-and-fire models. Despite being almost as simple as a traditional firing-rate description, this model can reproduce firing-rate dynamics due to partial synchronization of the action potentials in a spiking model, and it successfully predicts the transition to spike synchronization in networks of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neurons.

  15. Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

    2013-10-01

    When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  16. Extending and expanding the Darwinian synthesis: the role of complex systems dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, Bruce H

    2011-03-01

    Darwinism is defined here as an evolving research tradition based upon the concepts of natural selection acting upon heritable variation articulated via background assumptions about systems dynamics. Darwin's theory of evolution was developed within a context of the background assumptions of Newtonian systems dynamics. The Modern Evolutionary Synthesis, or neo-Darwinism, successfully joined Darwinian selection and Mendelian genetics by developing population genetics informed by background assumptions of Boltzmannian systems dynamics. Currently the Darwinian Research Tradition is changing as it incorporates new information and ideas from molecular biology, paleontology, developmental biology, and systems ecology. This putative expanded and extended synthesis is most perspicuously deployed using background assumptions from complex systems dynamics. Such attempts seek to not only broaden the range of phenomena encompassed by the Darwinian Research Tradition, such as neutral molecular evolution, punctuated equilibrium, as well as developmental biology, and systems ecology more generally, but to also address issues of the emergence of evolutionary novelties as well as of life itself. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Phenotypic plasticity despite source-sink population dynamics in a long-lived perennial plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Jill T; Sparks, Jed P; Geber, Monica A

    2010-11-01

    • Species that exhibit adaptive plasticity alter their phenotypes in response to environmental conditions, thereby maximizing fitness in heterogeneous landscapes. However, under demographic source-sink dynamics, selection should favor traits that enhance fitness in the source habitat at the expense of fitness in the marginal habitat. Consistent with source-sink dynamics, the perennial blueberry, Vaccinium elliottii (Ericaceae), shows substantially higher fitness and population sizes in dry upland forests than in flood-prone bottomland forests, and asymmetrical gene flow occurs from upland populations into bottomland populations. Here, we examined whether this species expresses plasticity to these distinct environments despite source-sink dynamics. • We assessed phenotypic responses to a complex environmental gradient in the field and to water stress in the glasshouse. • Contrary to expectations, V. elliottii exhibited a high degree of plasticity in foliar and root traits (specific leaf area, carbon isotope ratios, foliar nitrogen content, root : shoot ratio, root porosity and root architecture). • We propose that plasticity can be maintained in source-sink systems if it is favored within the source habitat and/or a phylogenetic artifact that is not costly. Additionally, plasticity could be advantageous if habitat-based differences in fitness result from incipient niche expansion. Our results illuminate the importance of evaluating phenotypic traits and fitness components across heterogeneous landscapes. © The Authors (2010). Journal compilation © New Phytologist Trust (2010).

  18. Charge-Transfer Complexes Studied by Dynamic Force Spectroscopy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jurriaan Huskens

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the strength and kinetics of two charge-transfer complexes, naphthol-methylviologen and pyrene-methylviologen, are studied using dynamic force spectroscopy. The dissociation rates indicate an enhanced stability of the pyrene-methylviologen complex, which agrees with its higher thermodynamic stability compared to naphthol-methylviologen complex.

  19. The Self as a Complex Dynamic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the potential offered by complexity theories for understanding language learners' sense of self and attempts to show how the self might usefully be conceived of as a complex dynamic system. Rather than presenting empirical findings, the article discusses existent research on the self and aims at outlining a conceptual…

  20. Sync in Complex Dynamical Networks: Stability, Evolution, Control, and Application

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xiang

    2005-01-01

    In the past few years, the discoveries of small-world and scale-free properties of many natural and artificial complex networks have stimulated significant advances in better understanding the relationship between the topology and the collective dynamics of complex networks. This paper reports recent progresses in the literature of synchronization of complex dynamical networks including stability criteria, network synchronizability and uniform synchronous criticality in different topologies, ...

  1. Dynamics of a physiologically structured population in a time-varying environment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heilmann, Irene Louise Torpe; Starke, Jens; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2016-01-01

    Physiologically structured population models have become a valuable tool to model the dynamics of populations. In a stationary environment such models can exhibit equilibrium solutions as well as periodic solutions. However, for many organisms the environment is not stationary, but varies more...... or less regularly. In order to understand the interaction between an external environmental forcing and the internal dynamics in a population, we examine the response of a physiologically structured population model to a periodic variation in the food resource. We explore the addition of forcing in two...... cases: (A) where the population dynamics is in equilibrium in a stationary environment, and (B) where the population dynamics exhibits a periodic solution in a stationary environment. When forcing is applied in case A, the solutions are mainly periodic. In case B the forcing signal interacts...

  2. Complex systems dynamics in aging: new evidence, continuing questions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cohen, Alan A

    2016-02-01

    There have long been suggestions that aging is tightly linked to the complex dynamics of the physiological systems that maintain homeostasis, and in particular to dysregulation of regulatory networks of molecules. This review synthesizes recent work that is starting to provide evidence for the importance of such complex systems dynamics in aging. There is now clear evidence that physiological dysregulation--the gradual breakdown in the capacity of complex regulatory networks to maintain homeostasis--is an emergent property of these regulatory networks, and that it plays an important role in aging. It can be measured simply using small numbers of biomarkers. Additionally, there are indications of the importance during aging of emergent physiological processes, functional processes that cannot be easily understood through clear metabolic pathways, but can nonetheless be precisely quantified and studied. The overall role of such complex systems dynamics in aging remains an important open question, and to understand it future studies will need to distinguish and integrate related aspects of aging research, including multi-factorial theories of aging, systems biology, bioinformatics, network approaches, robustness, and loss of complexity.

  3. Dynamic complexity of a two-prey one-predator system with impulsive effect

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yujuan; Xiu Zhilong; Chen Lansun

    2005-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate the dynamic complexity of a two-prey one-predator system with impulsive perturbation on predator at fixed moments. With the increase of the predation rate for the super competitor, the system displays complicated phenomena including a sequence of direct and inverse cascade of periodic-doubling, chaos, and symmetry breaking bifurcation. Moreover, we discuss the effect of the period of releasing predator on the dynamical behaviors of the unforced continuous system, and find that periodically releasing predator at fixed moments change the properties of the unforced continuous system. We suggest a highly effective method in pest control. The target pest population can be driven to extinction and the non-target pest (or harmless insect) can be permanent by choosing impulsive period, while classical method cannot emulate

  4. An individual-based model of Zebrafish population dynamics accounting for energy dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaudouin, Remy; Goussen, Benoit; Piccini, Benjamin

    2015-01-01

    Developing population dynamics models for zebrafish is crucial in order to extrapolate from toxicity data measured at the organism level to biological levels relevant to support and enhance ecological risk assessment. To achieve this, a dynamic energy budget for individual zebrafish (DEB model...

  5. Robustness of pinning a general complex dynamical network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Lei; Sun Youxian

    2010-01-01

    This Letter studies the robustness problem of pinning a general complex dynamical network toward an assigned synchronous evolution. Several synchronization criteria are presented to guarantee the convergence of the pinning process locally and globally by construction of Lyapunov functions. In particular, if a pinning strategy has been designed for synchronization of a given complex dynamical network, then no matter what uncertainties occur among the pinned nodes, synchronization can still be guaranteed through the pinning. The analytical results show that pinning control has a certain robustness against perturbations on network architecture: adding, deleting and changing the weights of edges. Numerical simulations illustrated by scale-free complex networks verify the theoretical results above-acquired.

  6. Population dynamics of active and total ciliate populations in arable soil amended with wheat

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ekelund, F.; Frederiksen, Helle B.; Ronn, R.

    2002-01-01

    of the population may be encysted. The factors governing the dynamics of active and encysted cells in the soil are not well understood. Our objective was to determine the dynamics of active and encysted populations of ciliates during the decomposition of freshly added organic material. We monitored, in soil...... microcosms, the active and total populations of ciliates, their potential prey (bacteria and small protozoa), their potential competitors (amoebae, flagellates, and nematodes), and their potential predators (nematodes). We sampled with short time intervals (2 to 6 days) and generated a data set, suitable...

  7. Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jochem, Warren C [ORNL; Sims, Kelly M [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Coleman, Phil R [ORNL; Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographically scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.

  8. DYNAMICS OF Cercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    DYNAMICS OFCercospora zeina POPULATIONS IN MAIZE-BASED AGRO- ..... Population differentiation of Cercospora zeina in three districts of Uganda based on analysis of molecular variance ..... interactions: The example of the Erysiphe.

  9. Behavior of Poisson Bracket Mapping Equation in Studying Excitation Energy Transfer Dynamics of Cryptophyte Phycocyanin 645 Complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Weon Gyu; Kelly, Aaron; Rhee, Young Min

    2012-01-01

    Recently, it has been shown that quantum coherence appears in energy transfers of various photosynthetic light harvesting complexes at from cryogenic to even room temperatures. Because the photosynthetic systems are inherently complex, these findings have subsequently interested many researchers in the field of both experiment and theory. From the theoretical part, simplified dynamics or semiclassical approaches have been widely used. In these approaches, the quantum-classical Liouville equation (QCLE) is the fundamental starting point. Toward the semiclassical scheme, approximations are needed to simplify the equations of motion of various degrees of freedom. Here, we have adopted the Poisson bracket mapping equation (PBME) as an approximate form of QCLE and applied it to find the time evolution of the excitation in a photosynthetic complex from marine algae. The benefit of using PBME is its similarity to conventional Hamiltonian dynamics. Through this, we confirmed the coherent population transfer behaviors in short time domain as previously reported with a more accurate but more time-consuming iterative linearized density matrix approach. However, we find that the site populations do not behave according to the Boltzmann law in the long time limit. We also test the effect of adding spurious high frequency vibrations to the spectral density of the bath, and find that their existence does not alter the dynamics to any significant extent as long as the associated reorganization energy is changed not too drastically. This suggests that adopting classical trajectory based ensembles in semiclassical simulations should not influence the coherence dynamics in any practical manner, even though the classical trajectories often yield spurious high frequency vibrational features in the spectral density

  10. Complexity in a population of Artemia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ali, A.A., E-mail: abduladem1@yahoo.co [Electrical Engineering Department, University of Basrah (Iraq); Fortuna, L., E-mail: lfortuna@diees.unict.i [DIEEI, Faculty of Engineering, University of Catania (Italy); Frasca, M., E-mail: mfrasca@diees.unict.i [DIEEI, Faculty of Engineering, University of Catania (Italy); Rashid, M.T., E-mail: mofid76@yahoo.co [Electrical Engineering Department, University of Basrah (Iraq); Xibilia, M.G., E-mail: mxibilia@ingegneria.unime.i [DiSIA, Faculty of Engineering, University of Messina (Italy)

    2011-04-15

    Highlights: Experiments on collective motion of populations of animals (Artemia salina). Design of low-cost experimental setup for complex systems. Control of collective motion of populations of Artemia. Models of collective motion of populations of Artemia. - Abstract: Artemia salina belongs to a genus of very primordial crustaceans, whose behavior is not widely investigated in literature. Their collective behavior is studied in this paper both experimentally and theoretically. Different experiments have been designed to control the direction of motion of an Artemia population by exploiting their sensitivity to light and to measure the response of the population to light at different wavelengths. Mathematical models have been also derived, explaining the mechanisms underlying Artemia flocking formation when a light spot is applied to the system. The results obtained allow to develop new strategies for distributed control of agents and to test them in a simple and low cost experimental setup.

  11. Memory and obesity affect the population dynamics of asexual freshwater planarians

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dunkel, Jörn; Talbot, Jared; Schötz, Eva-Maria

    2011-01-01

    Asexual reproduction in multicellular organisms is a complex biophysical process that is not yet well understood quantitatively. Here, we report a detailed population study for the asexual freshwater planarian Schmidtea mediterranea, which can reproduce via transverse fission due to a large stem cell contingent. Our long-term observations of isolated non-interacting planarian populations reveal that the characteristic fission waiting time distributions for head and tail fragments differ significantly from each other. The stochastic fission dynamics of tail fragments exhibits non-negligible memory effects, implying that an accurate mathematical description of future data should be based on non-Markovian tree models. By comparing the effective growth of non-interacting planarian populations with those of self-interacting populations, we are able to quantify the influence of interactions between flatworms and physical conditions on the population growth. A surprising result is the non-monotonic relationship between effective population growth rate and nutrient supply: planarians exhibit a tendency to become 'obese' if the feeding frequency exceeds a critical level, resulting in a decreased reproduction activity. This suggests that these flatworms, which possess many genes homologous to those of humans, could become a new model system for studying dietary effects on reproduction and regeneration in multicellular organisms

  12. POPULATION DYNAMICS OF PSEUDO-NITZSCHIA SPECIES ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    nb

    current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia ... and to the developing aquaculture industry ... B. Hotel. Pangani Island. Bongoyo Island. Mbudya Island. Msasani Bay ... Salinity values did not show clear trends.

  13. Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaotic and Complex Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infeld, E.; Zelazny, R.; Galkowski, A.

    2011-04-01

    Part I. Dynamic Systems Bifurcation Theory and Chaos: 1. Chaos in random dynamical systems V. M. Gunldach; 2. Controlling chaos using embedded unstable periodic orbits: the problem of optimal periodic orbits B. R. Hunt and E. Ott; 3. Chaotic tracer dynamics in open hydrodynamical flows G. Karolyi, A. Pentek, T. Tel and Z. Toroczkai; 4. Homoclinic chaos L. P. Shilnikov; Part II. Spatially Extended Systems: 5. Hydrodynamics of relativistic probability flows I. Bialynicki-Birula; 6. Waves in ionic reaction-diffusion-migration systems P. Hasal, V. Nevoral, I. Schreiber, H. Sevcikova, D. Snita, and M. Marek; 7. Anomalous scaling in turbulence: a field theoretical approach V. Lvov and I. Procaccia; 8. Abelian sandpile cellular automata M. Markosova; 9. Transport in an incompletely chaotic magnetic field F. Spineanu; Part III. Dynamical Chaos Quantum Physics and Foundations Of Statistical Mechanics: 10. Non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and ergodic theory L. A. Bunimovich; 11. Pseudochaos in statistical physics B. Chirikov; 12. Foundations of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics J. P. Dougherty; 13. Thermomechanical particle simulations W. G. Hoover, H. A. Posch, C. H. Dellago, O. Kum, C. G. Hoover, A. J. De Groot and B. L. Holian; 14. Quantum dynamics on a Markov background and irreversibility B. Pavlov; 15. Time chaos and the laws of nature I. Prigogine and D. J. Driebe; 16. Evolutionary Q and cognitive systems: dynamic entropies and predictability of evolutionary processes W. Ebeling; 17. Spatiotemporal chaos information processing in neural networks H. Szu; 18. Phase transitions and learning in neural networks C. Van den Broeck; 19. Synthesis of chaos A. Vanecek and S. Celikovsky; 20. Computational complexity of continuous problems H. Wozniakowski; Part IV. Complex Systems As An Interface Between Natural Sciences and Environmental Social and Economic Sciences: 21. Stochastic differential geometry in finance studies V. G. Makhankov; Part V. Conference Banquet

  14. Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.

  15. The finite state projection approach to analyze dynamics of heterogeneous populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Rob; Munsky, Brian

    2017-06-01

    Population modeling aims to capture and predict the dynamics of cell populations in constant or fluctuating environments. At the elementary level, population growth proceeds through sequential divisions of individual cells. Due to stochastic effects, populations of cells are inherently heterogeneous in phenotype, and some phenotypic variables have an effect on division or survival rates, as can be seen in partial drug resistance. Therefore, when modeling population dynamics where the control of growth and division is phenotype dependent, the corresponding model must take account of the underlying cellular heterogeneity. The finite state projection (FSP) approach has often been used to analyze the statistics of independent cells. Here, we extend the FSP analysis to explore the coupling of cell dynamics and biomolecule dynamics within a population. This extension allows a general framework with which to model the state occupations of a heterogeneous, isogenic population of dividing and expiring cells. The method is demonstrated with a simple model of cell-cycle progression, which we use to explore possible dynamics of drug resistance phenotypes in dividing cells. We use this method to show how stochastic single-cell behaviors affect population level efficacy of drug treatments, and we illustrate how slight modifications to treatment regimens may have dramatic effects on drug efficacy.

  16. Polyacrylic acids–bovine serum albumin complexation: Structure and dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Othman, Mohamed; Aschi, Adel; Gharbi, Abdelhafidh

    2016-01-01

    The study of the mixture of BSA with polyacrylic acids at different masses versus pH allowed highlighting the existence of two regimes of weak and strong complexation. These complexes were studied in diluted regime concentration, by turbidimetry, dynamic light scattering (DLS), zeta-potential measurements and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). We have followed the pH effect on the structure and properties of the complex. This allowed refining the interpretation of the phase diagram and understanding the observed phenomena. The NMR measurements allowed probing the dynamics of the constituents versus the pH. The computational method was used to precisely determine the electrostatic potential of BSA and how the polyelectrolyte binds to it at different pH. - Highlights: • Influence of physico-chemical parameters on the electrostatic interactions in the complex system (polyelectrolyte/protein). • Stabilization and encapsulation of biological macromolecules solution by mean of polyelectrolyte. • Properties and structure of mixture obtained by screening the charges of globular protein and at different masses of polyacrylic acids. • Dynamic of the constituents formed by complexes particles. • Evaluation of the electrostatic properties of bovine serum albumin versus pH through solution of the Poisson-Boltzmann equation.

  17. Complexity in a population of Artemia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ali, A.A.; Fortuna, L.; Frasca, M.; Rashid, M.T.; Xibilia, M.G.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → Experiments on collective motion of populations of animals (Artemia salina). → Design of low-cost experimental setup for complex systems. → Control of collective motion of populations of Artemia. → Models of collective motion of populations of Artemia. - Abstract: Artemia salina belongs to a genus of very primordial crustaceans, whose behavior is not widely investigated in literature. Their collective behavior is studied in this paper both experimentally and theoretically. Different experiments have been designed to control the direction of motion of an Artemia population by exploiting their sensitivity to light and to measure the response of the population to light at different wavelengths. Mathematical models have been also derived, explaining the mechanisms underlying Artemia flocking formation when a light spot is applied to the system. The results obtained allow to develop new strategies for distributed control of agents and to test them in a simple and low cost experimental setup.

  18. Complex and Adaptive Dynamical Systems A Primer

    CERN Document Server

    Gros, Claudius

    2011-01-01

    We are living in an ever more complex world, an epoch where human actions can accordingly acquire far-reaching potentialities. Complex and adaptive dynamical systems are ubiquitous in the world surrounding us and require us to adapt to new realities and the way of dealing with them. This primer has been developed with the aim of conveying a wide range of "commons-sense" knowledge in the field of quantitative complex system science at an introductory level, providing an entry point to this both fascinating and vitally important subject. The approach is modular and phenomenology driven. Examples of emerging phenomena of generic importance treated in this book are: -- The small world phenomenon in social and scale-free networks. -- Phase transitions and self-organized criticality in adaptive systems. -- Life at the edge of chaos and coevolutionary avalanches resulting from the unfolding of all living. -- The concept of living dynamical systems and emotional diffusive control within cognitive system theory. Techn...

  19. Complex and adaptive dynamical systems a primer

    CERN Document Server

    Gros, Claudius

    2007-01-01

    We are living in an ever more complex world, an epoch where human actions can accordingly acquire far-reaching potentialities. Complex and adaptive dynamical systems are ubiquitous in the world surrounding us and require us to adapt to new realities and the way of dealing with them. This primer has been developed with the aim of conveying a wide range of "commons-sense" knowledge in the field of quantitative complex system science at an introductory level, providing an entry point to this both fascinating and vitally important subject. The approach is modular and phenomenology driven. Examples of emerging phenomena of generic importance treated in this book are: -- The small world phenomenon in social and scale-free networks. -- Phase transitions and self-organized criticality in adaptive systems. -- Life at the edge of chaos and coevolutionary avalanches resulting from the unfolding of all living. -- The concept of living dynamical systems and emotional diffusive control within cognitive system theory. Techn...

  20. The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Hare, J Daniel

    2011-11-01

    Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

  1. Complex-Dynamic Cosmology and Emergent World Structure

    OpenAIRE

    Kirilyuk, Andrei P.

    2004-01-01

    Universe structure emerges in the unreduced, complex-dynamic interaction process with the simplest initial configuration (two attracting homogeneous fields, quant-ph/9902015). The unreduced interaction analysis gives intrinsically creative cosmology, describing the real, explicitly emerging world structure with dynamic randomness on each scale. Without imposing any postulates or entities, we obtain physically real space, time, elementary particles with their detailed structure and intrinsic p...

  2. Delay differential systems for tick population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Guihong; Thieme, Horst R; Zhu, Huaiping

    2015-11-01

    Ticks play a critical role as vectors in the transmission and spread of Lyme disease, an emerging infectious disease which can cause severe illness in humans or animals. To understand the transmission dynamics of Lyme disease and other tick-borne diseases, it is necessary to investigate the population dynamics of ticks. Here, we formulate a system of delay differential equations which models the stage structure of the tick population. Temperature can alter the length of time delays in each developmental stage, and so the time delays can vary geographically (and seasonally which we do not consider). We define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] of stage structured tick populations. The tick population is uniformly persistent if [Formula: see text] and dies out if [Formula: see text]. We present sufficient conditions under which the unique positive equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. In general, the positive equilibrium can be unstable and the system show oscillatory behavior. These oscillations are primarily due to negative feedback within the tick system, but can be enhanced by the time delays of the different developmental stages.

  3. Climate, invasive species and land use drive population dynamics of a cold-water specialist

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovach, Ryan P.; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Whited, Diane C.; Schmetterling, David A.; Dux, Andrew M; Muhlfeld, Clint C.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is an additional stressor in a complex suite of threats facing freshwater biodiversity, particularly for cold-water fishes. Research addressing the consequences of climate change on cold-water fish has generally focused on temperature limits defining spatial distributions, largely ignoring how climatic variation influences population dynamics in the context of other existing stressors.We used long-term data from 92 populations of bull trout Salvelinus confluentus – one of North America's most cold-adapted fishes – to quantify additive and interactive effects of climate, invasive species and land use on population dynamics (abundance, variability and growth rate).Populations were generally depressed, more variable and declining where spawning and rearing stream habitat was limited, invasive species and land use were prevalent and stream temperatures were highest. Increasing stream temperature acted additively and independently, whereas land use and invasive species had additive and interactive effects (i.e. the impact of one stressor depended on exposure to the other stressor).Most (58%–78%) of the explained variation in population dynamics was attributed to the presence of invasive species, differences in life history and management actions in foraging habitats in rivers, lakes and reservoirs. Although invasive fishes had strong negative effects on populations in foraging habitats, proactive control programmes appeared to effectively temper their negative impact.Synthesis and applications. Long-term demographic data emphasize that climate warming will exacerbate imperilment of cold-water specialists like bull trout, yet other stressors – especially invasive fishes – are immediate threats that can be addressed by proactive management actions. Therefore, climate-adaptation strategies for freshwater biodiversity should consider existing abiotic and biotic stressors, some of which provide potential and realized opportunity for conservation

  4. Cellular population dynamics control the robustness of the stem cell niche

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam L. MacLean

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Within populations of cells, fate decisions are controlled by an indeterminate combination of cell-intrinsic and cell-extrinsic factors. In the case of stem cells, the stem cell niche is believed to maintain ‘stemness’ through communication and interactions between the stem cells and one or more other cell-types that contribute to the niche conditions. To investigate the robustness of cell fate decisions in the stem cell hierarchy and the role that the niche plays, we introduce simple mathematical models of stem and progenitor cells, their progeny and their interplay in the niche. These models capture the fundamental processes of proliferation and differentiation and allow us to consider alternative possibilities regarding how niche-mediated signalling feedback regulates the niche dynamics. Generalised stability analysis of these stem cell niche systems enables us to describe the stability properties of each model. We find that although the number of feasible states depends on the model, their probabilities of stability in general do not: stem cell–niche models are stable across a wide range of parameters. We demonstrate that niche-mediated feedback increases the number of stable steady states, and show how distinct cell states have distinct branching characteristics. The ecological feedback and interactions mediated by the stem cell niche thus lend (surprisingly high levels of robustness to the stem and progenitor cell population dynamics. Furthermore, cell–cell interactions are sufficient for populations of stem cells and their progeny to achieve stability and maintain homeostasis. We show that the robustness of the niche – and hence of the stem cell pool in the niche – depends only weakly, if at all, on the complexity of the niche make-up: simple as well as complicated niche systems are capable of supporting robust and stable stem cell dynamics.

  5. Modeling the population dynamics of Pacific yew.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard T. Busing; Thomas A. Spies

    1995-01-01

    A study of Pacific yew (Taxus brevifolia Nutt.) population dynamics in the mountains of western Oregon and Washington was based on a combination of long-term population data and computer modeling. Rates of growth and mortality were low in mature and old-growth forest stands. Diameter growth at breast height ranged from 0 to 3 centimeters per decade...

  6. Stochastic population dynamic models as probability networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    M.E. and D.C. Lee. Borsuk

    2009-01-01

    The dynamics of a population and its response to environmental change depend on the balance of birth, death and age-at-maturity, and there have been many attempts to mathematically model populations based on these characteristics. Historically, most of these models were deterministic, meaning that the results were strictly determined by the equations of the model and...

  7. The self as a complex dynamic system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Mercer

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the potential offered by complexity theories for understanding language learners’ sense of self and attempts to show how the self might usefully be conceived of as a complex dynamic system. Rather than presenting empirical findings, the article discusses existent research on the self and aims at outlining a conceptual perspective that may inform future studies into the self and possibly other individual learner differences. The article concludes by critically considering the merits of a complexity perspective but also reflecting on the challenges it poses for research.

  8. Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2013-01-01

    This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

  9. Dynamics of major histocompatibility complex class I association with the human peptide-loading complex.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panter, Michaela S; Jain, Ankur; Leonhardt, Ralf M; Ha, Taekjip; Cresswell, Peter

    2012-09-07

    Although the human peptide-loading complex (PLC) is required for optimal major histocompatibility complex class I (MHC I) antigen presentation, its composition is still incompletely understood. The ratio of the transporter associated with antigen processing (TAP) and MHC I to tapasin, which is responsible for MHC I recruitment and peptide binding optimization, is particularly critical for modeling of the PLC. Here, we characterized the stoichiometry of the human PLC using both biophysical and biochemical approaches. By means of single-molecule pulldown (SiMPull), we determined a TAP/tapasin ratio of 1:2, consistent with previous studies of insect-cell microsomes, rat-human chimeric cells, and HeLa cells expressing truncated TAP subunits. We also report that the tapasin/MHC I ratio varies, with the PLC population comprising both 2:1 and 2:2 complexes, based on mutational and co-precipitation studies. The MHC I-saturated PLC may be particularly prevalent among peptide-selective alleles, such as HLA-C4. Additionally, MHC I association with the PLC increases when its peptide supply is reduced by inhibiting the proteasome or by blocking TAP-mediated peptide transport using viral inhibitors. Taken together, our results indicate that the composition of the human PLC varies under normal conditions and dynamically adapts to alterations in peptide supply that may arise during viral infection. These findings improve our understanding of the quality control of MHC I peptide loading and may aid the structural and functional modeling of the human PLC.

  10. Dynamic complexities for prey-dependent consumption integrated pest management models with impulsive effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hui Jing; Zhu Deming

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the prey-dependent consumption predator-prey (natural enemy-pest) models with age structure for the predator, immature and mature natural enemies are released and pesticide is applied impulsively. We prove that, when the impulsive period is no longer than some threshold, the pest-eradication solution is globally asymptotically stable, or say, the pest population can be eradicated totally. But from the point of ecological balance and saving resources, we only need to control the pest population under the economic threshold level instead of eradicating it totally, so we further prove that, when the impulsive period is longer than the threshold, pest population and natural enemy population can coexist, i.e., the system is uniformly permanent. Considering population communities always are imbedded in periodically varying environments, and the parameters in ecosystem models may oscillate simultaneously with the periodically varying environments, we add a forcing term into the prey population's intrinsic growth rate. From two aspects, i.e., when the period of forcing term is same as the impulsive period and when the two periods are different, we illustrate that, the dynamical behaviors of corresponding impulsive system are very complex

  11. Estimating spatio-temporal dynamics of size-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kristensen, Kasper; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Andersen, Ken Haste

    2014-01-01

    with simple stock dynamics, to estimate simultaneously how size distributions and spatial distributions develop in time. We demonstrate the method for a cod population sampled by trawl surveys. Particular attention is paid to correlation between size classes within each trawl haul due to clustering...... of individuals with similar size. The model estimates growth, mortality and reproduction, after which any aspect of size-structure, spatio-temporal population dynamics, as well as the sampling process can be probed. This is illustrated by two applications: 1) tracking the spatial movements of a single cohort...

  12. Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

  13. Computer simulation of population dynamics inside the urban environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreev, A. S.; Inovenkov, I. N.; Echkina, E. Yu.; Nefedov, V. V.; Ponomarenko, L. S.; Tikhomirov, V. V.

    2017-12-01

    In this paper using a mathematical model of the so-called “space-dynamic” approach we investigate the problem of development and temporal dynamics of different urban population groups. For simplicity we consider an interaction of only two population groups inside a single urban area with axial symmetry. This problem can be described qualitatively by a system of two non-stationary nonlinear differential equations of the diffusion type with boundary conditions of the third type. The results of numerical simulations show that with a suitable choice of the diffusion coefficients and interaction functions between different population groups we can receive different scenarios of population dynamics: from complete displacement of one population group by another (originally more “aggressive”) to the “peaceful” situation of co-existence of them together.

  14. Integral projection models for finite populations in a stochastic environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vindenes, Yngvild; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

    2011-05-01

    Continuous types of population structure occur when continuous variables such as body size or habitat quality affect the vital parameters of individuals. These structures can give rise to complex population dynamics and interact with environmental conditions. Here we present a model for continuously structured populations with finite size, including both demographic and environmental stochasticity in the dynamics. Using recent methods developed for discrete age-structured models we derive the demographic and environmental variance of the population growth as functions of a continuous state variable. These two parameters, together with the expected population growth rate, are used to define a one-dimensional diffusion approximation of the population dynamics. Thus, a substantial reduction in complexity is achieved as the dynamics of the complex structured model can be described by only three population parameters. We provide methods for numerical calculation of the model parameters and demonstrate the accuracy of the diffusion approximation by computer simulation of specific examples. The general modeling framework makes it possible to analyze and predict future dynamics and extinction risk of populations with various types of structure, and to explore consequences of changes in demography caused by, e.g., climate change or different management decisions. Our results are especially relevant for small populations that are often of conservation concern.

  15. Topics in Complexity: Dynamical Patterns in the Cyberworld

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Hong

    Quantitative understanding of mechanism in complex systems is a common "difficult" problem across many fields such as physical, biological, social and economic sciences. Investigation on underlying dynamics of complex systems and building individual-based models have recently been fueled by big data resulted from advancing information technology. This thesis investigates complex systems in social science, focusing on civil unrests on streets and relevant activities online. Investigation consists of collecting data of unrests from open digital source, featuring dynamical patterns underlying, making predictions and constructing models. A simple law governing the progress of two-sided confrontations is proposed with data of activities at micro-level. Unraveling the connections between activity of organizing online and outburst of unrests on streets gives rise to a further meso-level pattern of human behavior, through which adversarial groups evolve online and hyper-escalate ahead of real-world uprisings. Based on the patterns found, noticeable improvement of prediction of civil unrests is achieved. Meanwhile, novel model created from combination of mobility dynamics in the cyberworld and a traditional contagion model can better capture the characteristics of modern civil unrests and other contagion-like phenomena than the original one.

  16. Effective control of complex turbulent dynamical systems through statistical functionals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majda, Andrew J; Qi, Di

    2017-05-30

    Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among complex systems in science and engineering, including climate, material, and neural science. Control of these complex systems is a grand challenge, for example, in mitigating the effects of climate change or safe design of technology with fully developed shear turbulence. Control of flows in the transition to turbulence, where there is a small dimension of instabilities about a basic mean state, is an important and successful discipline. In complex turbulent dynamical systems, it is impossible to track and control the large dimension of instabilities, which strongly interact and exchange energy, and new control strategies are needed. The goal of this paper is to propose an effective statistical control strategy for complex turbulent dynamical systems based on a recent statistical energy principle and statistical linear response theory. We illustrate the potential practical efficiency and verify this effective statistical control strategy on the 40D Lorenz 1996 model in forcing regimes with various types of fully turbulent dynamics with nearly one-half of the phase space unstable.

  17. Searching for Appropriate Ways to Face the Challenges of Complexity and Dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Sommerfeld, Peter; Hollenstein, Lea

    2017-01-01

    People, as bio-psychological systems, are just as dynamic and complex as the social systems that they create. Social work intervenes in the interplay of these two complex, dynamic systems. How can we capture these complexities and dynamics in social work research and practice? The paper introduces the theoretical grounds on which a mixed-methods design has been developed combining a longitudinal quantitative method called Real Time Monitoring that produces dense time series data with qualitat...

  18. Data Driven Approach for High Resolution Population Distribution and Dynamics Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bhaduri, Budhendra L [ORNL; Bright, Eddie A [ORNL; Rose, Amy N [ORNL; Liu, Cheng [ORNL; Urban, Marie L [ORNL; Stewart, Robert N [ORNL

    2014-01-01

    High resolution population distribution data are vital for successfully addressing critical issues ranging from energy and socio-environmental research to public health to human security. Commonly available population data from Census is constrained both in space and time and does not capture population dynamics as functions of space and time. This imposes a significant limitation on the fidelity of event-based simulation models with sensitive space-time resolution. This paper describes ongoing development of high-resolution population distribution and dynamics models, at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, through spatial data integration and modeling with behavioral or activity-based mobility datasets for representing temporal dynamics of population. The model is resolved at 1 km resolution globally and describes the U.S. population for nighttime and daytime at 90m. Integration of such population data provides the opportunity to develop simulations and applications in critical infrastructure management from local to global scales.

  19. Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Valerio Bartolino

    Full Text Available Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes.

  20. Effect of plant-animal interactions on individual performance and population dynamics of Scorzonera hispanica

    OpenAIRE

    Červenková, Zita

    2016-01-01

    The population dynamics of plants with regard to plant-animal interactions is a remarkably complex topic. To look into how individual life stages are influenced in different directions by various animals is beyond the scope of a single paper. For each of the studies described below, I and my co-authors attempted to collect data that would cover as much of the plant life cycle as possible, focusing on interactions between plants and different animals during the flowering period and their conse...

  1. Note on transmitted complexity for quantum dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watanabe, Noboru; Muto, Masahiro

    2017-10-01

    Transmitted complexity (mutual entropy) is one of the important measures for quantum information theory developed recently in several ways. We will review the fundamental concepts of the Kossakowski, Ohya and Watanabe entropy and define a transmitted complexity for quantum dynamical systems. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

  2. Investigating dynamical complexity in the magnetosphere using various entropy measures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, Georgios; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Kalimeri, Maria; Anastasiadis, Anastasios; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

    2009-09-01

    The complex system of the Earth's magnetosphere corresponds to an open spatially extended nonequilibrium (input-output) dynamical system. The nonextensive Tsallis entropy has been recently introduced as an appropriate information measure to investigate dynamical complexity in the magnetosphere. The method has been employed for analyzing Dst time series and gave promising results, detecting the complexity dissimilarity among different physiological and pathological magnetospheric states (i.e., prestorm activity and intense magnetic storms, respectively). This paper explores the applicability and effectiveness of a variety of computable entropy measures (e.g., block entropy, Kolmogorov entropy, T complexity, and approximate entropy) to the investigation of dynamical complexity in the magnetosphere. We show that as the magnetic storm approaches there is clear evidence of significant lower complexity in the magnetosphere. The observed higher degree of organization of the system agrees with that inferred previously, from an independent linear fractal spectral analysis based on wavelet transforms. This convergence between nonlinear and linear analyses provides a more reliable detection of the transition from the quiet time to the storm time magnetosphere, thus showing evidence that the occurrence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. More precisely, we claim that our results suggest an important principle: significant complexity decrease and accession of persistency in Dst time series can be confirmed as the magnetic storm approaches, which can be used as diagnostic tools for the magnetospheric injury (global instability). Overall, approximate entropy and Tsallis entropy yield superior results for detecting dynamical complexity changes in the magnetosphere in comparison to the other entropy measures presented herein. Ultimately, the analysis tools developed in the course of this study for the treatment of Dst index can provide convenience for space weather

  3. Population Dynamics and Cost-Benefit Analysis. An Attempt to Relate Population Dynamics via Lifetime Reproductive Success to Short-Term Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tinbergen, J.M.; Balen, J.H. van; Drent, P.J.; Cavé, A.J.; Mertens, J.A.L.; Boer-Hazewinkel, J. den

    1987-01-01

    1. The aim of this article is to explore whether cost-benefit analysis of behaviour may help to understand the population dynamics of a species. The Great Tit is taken as an example. 2. The lifetime reproductive success in different populations of Great Tits amounts from 0.7 (Hoge Veluwe, Wytham) to

  4. Particle algorithms for population dynamics in flows

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perlekar, Prasad; Toschi, Federico; Benzi, Roberto; Pigolotti, Simone

    2011-01-01

    We present and discuss particle based algorithms to numerically study the dynamics of population subjected to an advecting flow condition. We discuss few possible variants of the algorithms and compare them in a model compressible flow. A comparison against appropriate versions of the continuum stochastic Fisher equation (sFKPP) is also presented and discussed. The algorithms can be used to study populations genetics in fluid environments.

  5. Lyapunov exponents a tool to explore complex dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Pikovsky, Arkady

    2016-01-01

    Lyapunov exponents lie at the heart of chaos theory, and are widely used in studies of complex dynamics. Utilising a pragmatic, physical approach, this self-contained book provides a comprehensive description of the concept. Beginning with the basic properties and numerical methods, it then guides readers through to the most recent advances in applications to complex systems. Practical algorithms are thoroughly reviewed and their performance is discussed, while a broad set of examples illustrate the wide range of potential applications. The description of various numerical and analytical techniques for the computation of Lyapunov exponents offers an extensive array of tools for the characterization of phenomena such as synchronization, weak and global chaos in low and high-dimensional set-ups, and localization. This text equips readers with all the investigative expertise needed to fully explore the dynamical properties of complex systems, making it ideal for both graduate students and experienced researchers...

  6. Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

  7. Population dynamics of rural Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bariabagar, H

    1978-01-01

    2 rounds of the national sample surveys, conducted by the central statistical office of Ethiopia during 1964-1967 and 1969-1971, provide the only comprehensive demographic data for the country and are the basis for this discussion of rural Ethiopia's population dynamics. The population of Ethiopia is predominantly rural. Agglomerations of 2000 and over inhabitants constitute about 14% of the population, and this indicates that Ethiopia has a low level of urbanization. In rural Ethiopia, international migration was negligent in the 1970's and the age structure can be assumed to be the results of past trends of fertility and mortality conditions. The reported crude birthrate (38.2), crude death rate (12.3) and infant mortality rate (90) of rural Ethiopia fall short of the averages for African countries. Prospects of population growth of rural Ethiopia would be immense. At the rate of natural increase of between 2.4 and 3.0% per annum, the population would double in 24-29 years. Regarding population issues, the programs of the National Democratic Revolution of Ethiopia faces the following main challenging problems: 1) carrying out national population censuses in order to obtain basic information for socialist planning; 2) minimizing or curtailing the existing high urban growth rates; 3) reducing rapidly growing population; and 5) mobilizing Ethiopian women to participate in the social, economic and political life of the country in order to create favorable conditions for future fertility reduction.

  8. OCCURRENCE OF MENTAL DISORDERS IN POPULATION AFFECTED BY RADIATION ACCIDENT: STRUCTURE, DYNAMICS, RISK FACTORS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Rumyantseva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of damage to mental health of individuals born after theChernobylaccident remains of high interest, especially in the regions which have been subjected to significant contamination as a result of the accident. The article analyzes the dynamics of psychiatric morbidity in population of contaminated and non-contaminated areas of theBryanskregion according to state statistics and to files of neuropsychiatric ambulatory institutions. The incidence rates in the contaminated areas are found to be significantly different from those in the non-contaminated areas. Dynamics of mentally handicapped contingents after the radiation accident depends, at different stages of postaccidental situation, on a complex of factors: social, economic, radiation, and general toxic ones, which once again underlines the general social character of such disasters.

  9. Random complex dynamics and devil's coliseums

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumi, Hiroki

    2015-04-01

    We investigate the random dynamics of polynomial maps on the Riemann sphere \\hat{\\Bbb{C}} and the dynamics of semigroups of polynomial maps on \\hat{\\Bbb{C}} . In particular, the dynamics of a semigroup G of polynomials whose planar postcritical set is bounded and the associated random dynamics are studied. In general, the Julia set of such a G may be disconnected. We show that if G is such a semigroup, then regarding the associated random dynamics, the chaos of the averaged system disappears in the C0 sense, and the function T∞ of probability of tending to ∞ \\in \\hat{\\Bbb{C}} is Hölder continuous on \\hat{\\Bbb{C}} and varies only on the Julia set of G. Moreover, the function T∞ has a kind of monotonicity. It turns out that T∞ is a complex analogue of the devil's staircase, and we call T∞ a ‘devil’s coliseum'. We investigate the details of T∞ when G is generated by two polynomials. In this case, T∞ varies precisely on the Julia set of G, which is a thin fractal set. Moreover, under this condition, we investigate the pointwise Hölder exponents of T∞.

  10. Modular interdependency in complex dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Richard A; Pollack, Jordan B

    2005-01-01

    Herbert A. Simon's characterization of modularity in dynamical systems describes subsystems as having dynamics that are approximately independent of those of other subsystems (in the short term). This fits with the general intuition that modules must, by definition, be approximately independent. In the evolution of complex systems, such modularity may enable subsystems to be modified and adapted independently of other subsystems, whereas in a nonmodular system, modifications to one part of the system may result in deleterious side effects elsewhere in the system. But this notion of modularity and its effect on evolvability is not well quantified and is rather simplistic. In particular, modularity need not imply that intermodule dependences are weak or unimportant. In dynamical systems this is acknowledged by Simon's suggestion that, in the long term, the dynamical behaviors of subsystems do interact with one another, albeit in an "aggregate" manner--but this kind of intermodule interaction is omitted in models of modularity for evolvability. In this brief discussion we seek to unify notions of modularity in dynamical systems with notions of how modularity affects evolvability. This leads to a quantifiable measure of modularity and a different understanding of its effect on evolvability.

  11. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  12. The Leadership Game : Experiencing Dynamic Complexity under Deep Uncertainty

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.; Segers, J.; Oruc, S.

    2011-01-01

    In this ever more complex, interconnected, and uncertain world, leadership is needed more than ever. But the literature and most leaders largely ignore dynamic complexity and deep uncertainty: only futures characterized by ever faster change, ever more (required) flexibility, and ever more scarcity

  13. Response of single bacterial cells to stress gives rise to complex history dependence at the population level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathis, Roland; Ackermann, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Most bacteria live in ever-changing environments where periods of stress are common. One fundamental question is whether individual bacterial cells have an increased tolerance to stress if they recently have been exposed to lower levels of the same stressor. To address this question, we worked with the bacterium Caulobacter crescentus and asked whether exposure to a moderate concentration of sodium chloride would affect survival during later exposure to a higher concentration. We found that the effects measured at the population level depended in a surprising and complex way on the time interval between the two exposure events: The effect of the first exposure on survival of the second exposure was positive for some time intervals but negative for others. We hypothesized that the complex pattern of history dependence at the population level was a consequence of the responses of individual cells to sodium chloride that we observed: (i) exposure to moderate concentrations of sodium chloride caused delays in cell division and led to cell-cycle synchronization, and (ii) whether a bacterium would survive subsequent exposure to higher concentrations was dependent on the cell-cycle state. Using computational modeling, we demonstrated that indeed the combination of these two effects could explain the complex patterns of history dependence observed at the population level. Our insight into how the behavior of single cells scales up to processes at the population level provides a perspective on how organisms operate in dynamic environments with fluctuating stress exposure. PMID:26960998

  14. Conceptualizing Teacher Identity as a Complex Dynamic System: The Inner Dynamics of Transformations during a Practicum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henry, Alastair

    2016-01-01

    Currently, the inner dynamics of teacher identity transformations remain a "black box." Conceptualizing preservice teacher identity as a complex dynamic system, and the notion of "being someone who teaches" in dialogical terms as involving shifts between different teacher voices, the study investigates the dynamical processes…

  15. Sinks without borders: Snowshoe hare dynamics in a complex landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, Paul C.; Mills, L. Scott

    2009-01-01

    A full understanding of population dynamics of wide-ranging animals should account for the effects that movement and habitat use have on individual contributions to population growth or decline. Quantifying the per-capita, habitat-specific contribution to population growth can clarify the value of different patch types, and help to differentiate population sources from population sinks. Snowshoe hares, Lepus americanus, routinely use various habitat types in the landscapes they inhabit in the contiguous US, where managing forests for high snowshoe hare density is a priority for conservation of Canada lynx, Lynx canadensis. We estimated density and demographic rates via mark–recapture live trapping and radio-telemetry within four forest stand structure (FSS) types at three study areas within heterogeneous managed forests in western Montana. We found support for known fate survival models with time-varying individual covariates representing the proportion of locations in each of the FSS types, with survival rates decreasing as use of open young and open mature FSS types increased. The per-capita contribution to overall population growth increased with use of the dense mature or dense young FSS types and decreased with use of the open young or open mature FSS types, and relatively high levels of immigration appear to be necessary to sustain hares in the open FSS types. Our results support a conceptual model for snowshoe hares in the southern range in which sink habitats (open areas) prevent the buildup of high hare densities. More broadly, we use this system to develop a novel approach to quantify demographic sources and sinks for animals making routine movements through complex fragmented landscapes.

  16. Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso

    2016-07-01

    The problem of reconstructing nonlinear and complex dynamical systems from measured data or time series is central to many scientific disciplines including physical, biological, computer, and social sciences, as well as engineering and economics. The classic approach to phase-space reconstruction through the methodology of delay-coordinate embedding has been practiced for more than three decades, but the paradigm is effective mostly for low-dimensional dynamical systems. Often, the methodology yields only a topological correspondence of the original system. There are situations in various fields of science and engineering where the systems of interest are complex and high dimensional with many interacting components. A complex system typically exhibits a rich variety of collective dynamics, and it is of great interest to be able to detect, classify, understand, predict, and control the dynamics using data that are becoming increasingly accessible due to the advances of modern information technology. To accomplish these goals, especially prediction and control, an accurate reconstruction of the original system is required. Nonlinear and complex systems identification aims at inferring, from data, the mathematical equations that govern the dynamical evolution and the complex interaction patterns, or topology, among the various components of the system. With successful reconstruction of the system equations and the connecting topology, it may be possible to address challenging and significant problems such as identification of causal relations among the interacting components and detection of hidden nodes. The "inverse" problem thus presents a grand challenge, requiring new paradigms beyond the traditional delay-coordinate embedding methodology. The past fifteen years have witnessed rapid development of contemporary complex graph theory with broad applications in interdisciplinary science and engineering. The combination of graph, information, and nonlinear dynamical

  17. Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Wen-Xu [School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, 100875 (China); Business School, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093 (China); Lai, Ying-Cheng, E-mail: Ying-Cheng.Lai@asu.edu [School of Electrical, Computer and Energy Engineering, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States); Department of Physics, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States); Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, King’s College, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UE (United Kingdom); Grebogi, Celso [Institute for Complex Systems and Mathematical Biology, King’s College, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen AB24 3UE (United Kingdom)

    2016-07-12

    The problem of reconstructing nonlinear and complex dynamical systems from measured data or time series is central to many scientific disciplines including physical, biological, computer, and social sciences, as well as engineering and economics. The classic approach to phase-space reconstruction through the methodology of delay-coordinate embedding has been practiced for more than three decades, but the paradigm is effective mostly for low-dimensional dynamical systems. Often, the methodology yields only a topological correspondence of the original system. There are situations in various fields of science and engineering where the systems of interest are complex and high dimensional with many interacting components. A complex system typically exhibits a rich variety of collective dynamics, and it is of great interest to be able to detect, classify, understand, predict, and control the dynamics using data that are becoming increasingly accessible due to the advances of modern information technology. To accomplish these goals, especially prediction and control, an accurate reconstruction of the original system is required. Nonlinear and complex systems identification aims at inferring, from data, the mathematical equations that govern the dynamical evolution and the complex interaction patterns, or topology, among the various components of the system. With successful reconstruction of the system equations and the connecting topology, it may be possible to address challenging and significant problems such as identification of causal relations among the interacting components and detection of hidden nodes. The “inverse” problem thus presents a grand challenge, requiring new paradigms beyond the traditional delay-coordinate embedding methodology. The past fifteen years have witnessed rapid development of contemporary complex graph theory with broad applications in interdisciplinary science and engineering. The combination of graph, information, and nonlinear

  18. Data based identification and prediction of nonlinear and complex dynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Wen-Xu; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Grebogi, Celso

    2016-01-01

    The problem of reconstructing nonlinear and complex dynamical systems from measured data or time series is central to many scientific disciplines including physical, biological, computer, and social sciences, as well as engineering and economics. The classic approach to phase-space reconstruction through the methodology of delay-coordinate embedding has been practiced for more than three decades, but the paradigm is effective mostly for low-dimensional dynamical systems. Often, the methodology yields only a topological correspondence of the original system. There are situations in various fields of science and engineering where the systems of interest are complex and high dimensional with many interacting components. A complex system typically exhibits a rich variety of collective dynamics, and it is of great interest to be able to detect, classify, understand, predict, and control the dynamics using data that are becoming increasingly accessible due to the advances of modern information technology. To accomplish these goals, especially prediction and control, an accurate reconstruction of the original system is required. Nonlinear and complex systems identification aims at inferring, from data, the mathematical equations that govern the dynamical evolution and the complex interaction patterns, or topology, among the various components of the system. With successful reconstruction of the system equations and the connecting topology, it may be possible to address challenging and significant problems such as identification of causal relations among the interacting components and detection of hidden nodes. The “inverse” problem thus presents a grand challenge, requiring new paradigms beyond the traditional delay-coordinate embedding methodology. The past fifteen years have witnessed rapid development of contemporary complex graph theory with broad applications in interdisciplinary science and engineering. The combination of graph, information, and nonlinear

  19. Dynamics of Population on the Verge of Extinction

    OpenAIRE

    Oborny, B.; Meszena, G.; Szabo, G.

    2005-01-01

    Theoretical considerations suggest that extinction in dispersal-limited populations is necessarily a threshold-like process that is analogous to a critical phase transition in physics. We use this analogy to find robust, common features in the dynamics of extinctions, and suggest early warning signals which may indicate that a population is endangered. As the critical threshold of extinction is approached, the population spontaneously fragments into discrete subpopulations and, consequently, ...

  20. Stochastic population dynamics of a montane ground-dwelling squirrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeffrey A Hostetler

    Full Text Available Understanding the causes and consequences of population fluctuations is a central goal of ecology. We used demographic data from a long-term (1990-2008 study and matrix population models to investigate factors and processes influencing the dynamics and persistence of a golden-mantled ground squirrel (Callospermophilus lateralis population, inhabiting a dynamic subalpine habitat in Colorado, USA. The overall deterministic population growth rate λ was 0.94±SE 0.05 but it varied widely over time, ranging from 0.45±0.09 in 2006 to 1.50±0.12 in 2003, and was below replacement (λ<1 for 9 out of 18 years. The stochastic population growth rate λ(s was 0.92, suggesting a declining population; however, the 95% CI on λ(s included 1.0 (0.52-1.60. Stochastic elasticity analysis showed that survival of adult females, followed by survival of juvenile females and litter size, were potentially the most influential vital rates; analysis of life table response experiments revealed that the same three life history variables made the largest contributions to year-to year changes in λ. Population viability analysis revealed that, when the influences of density dependence and immigration were not considered, the population had a high (close to 1.0 in 50 years probability of extinction. However, probability of extinction declined to as low as zero when density dependence and immigration were considered. Destabilizing effects of stochastic forces were counteracted by regulating effects of density dependence and rescue effects of immigration, which allowed our study population to bounce back from low densities and prevented extinction. These results suggest that dynamics and persistence of our study population are determined synergistically by density-dependence, stochastic forces, and immigration.

  1. A Theoretical Approach to Understanding Population Dynamics with Seasonal Developmental Durations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lou, Yijun; Zhao, Xiao-Qiang

    2017-04-01

    There is a growing body of biological investigations to understand impacts of seasonally changing environmental conditions on population dynamics in various research fields such as single population growth and disease transmission. On the other side, understanding the population dynamics subject to seasonally changing weather conditions plays a fundamental role in predicting the trends of population patterns and disease transmission risks under the scenarios of climate change. With the host-macroparasite interaction as a motivating example, we propose a synthesized approach for investigating the population dynamics subject to seasonal environmental variations from theoretical point of view, where the model development, basic reproduction ratio formulation and computation, and rigorous mathematical analysis are involved. The resultant model with periodic delay presents a novel term related to the rate of change of the developmental duration, bringing new challenges to dynamics analysis. By investigating a periodic semiflow on a suitably chosen phase space, the global dynamics of a threshold type is established: all solutions either go to zero when basic reproduction ratio is less than one, or stabilize at a positive periodic state when the reproduction ratio is greater than one. The synthesized approach developed here is applicable to broader contexts of investigating biological systems with seasonal developmental durations.

  2. Identifying protein complex by integrating characteristic of core-attachment into dynamic PPI network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xianjun Shen

    Full Text Available How to identify protein complex is an important and challenging task in proteomics. It would make great contribution to our knowledge of molecular mechanism in cell life activities. However, the inherent organization and dynamic characteristic of cell system have rarely been incorporated into the existing algorithms for detecting protein complexes because of the limitation of protein-protein interaction (PPI data produced by high throughput techniques. The availability of time course gene expression profile enables us to uncover the dynamics of molecular networks and improve the detection of protein complexes. In order to achieve this goal, this paper proposes a novel algorithm DCA (Dynamic Core-Attachment. It detects protein-complex core comprising of continually expressed and highly connected proteins in dynamic PPI network, and then the protein complex is formed by including the attachments with high adhesion into the core. The integration of core-attachment feature into the dynamic PPI network is responsible for the superiority of our algorithm. DCA has been applied on two different yeast dynamic PPI networks and the experimental results show that it performs significantly better than the state-of-the-art techniques in terms of prediction accuracy, hF-measure and statistical significance in biology. In addition, the identified complexes with strong biological significance provide potential candidate complexes for biologists to validate.

  3. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R. K. P.

    2010-10-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (Na and Nb) and preferred degree (κa and \\kappa_b\\ll \\kappa_a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees langkbbrang and langkabrang presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal Na = Nb, the ratio of the restricted degree θ0 = langkabrang/langkbbrang appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ0 = 3.

  4. A system dynamics optimization framework to achieve population desired of average weight target

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zulkepli, Jafri Haji; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura

    2017-11-01

    Obesity is becoming a serious problem in Malaysia as it has been rated as the highest among Asian countries. The aim of the paper is to propose a system dynamics (SD) optimization framework to achieve population desired weight target based on the changes in physical activity behavior and its association to weight and obesity. The system dynamics approach of stocks and flows diagram was used to quantitatively model the impact of both behavior on the population's weight and obesity trends. This work seems to bring this idea together and highlighting the interdependence of the various aspects of eating and physical activity behavior on the complex of human weight regulation system. The model was used as an experimentation vehicle to investigate the impacts of changes in physical activity on weight and prevalence of obesity implications. This framework paper provides evidence on the usefulness of SD optimization as a strategic decision making approach to assist in decision making related to obesity prevention. SD applied in this research is relatively new in Malaysia and has a high potential to apply to any feedback models that address the behavior cause to obesity.

  5. Bounds on the dynamics of sink populations with noisy immigration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eager, Eric Alan; Guiver, Chris; Hodgson, Dave; Rebarber, Richard; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2014-03-01

    Sink populations are doomed to decline to extinction in the absence of immigration. The dynamics of sink populations are not easily modelled using the standard framework of per capita rates of immigration, because numbers of immigrants are determined by extrinsic sources (for example, source populations, or population managers). Here we appeal to a systems and control framework to place upper and lower bounds on both the transient and future dynamics of sink populations that are subject to noisy immigration. Immigration has a number of interpretations and can fit a wide variety of models found in the literature. We apply the results to case studies derived from published models for Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and blowout penstemon (Penstemon haydenii). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Population dynamics model for plasmid bearing and plasmid lacking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Streptokinase production in bioreactor is well associated to cell population dynamics. It is an established fact that two types of cell populations are found to emerge from the initial pool of recombinant cell population. This phenomenon leads to an undesired loss in yield of the product. Primary metabolites, like acetic acid etc ...

  7. Emergence of dynamical order synchronization phenomena in complex systems

    CERN Document Server

    Manrubia, Susanna C; Zanette, Damián H

    2004-01-01

    Synchronization processes bring about dynamical order and lead tospontaneous development of structural organization in complex systemsof various origins, from chemical oscillators and biological cells tohuman societies and the brain. This book provides a review and adetailed theoretical analysis of synchronization phenomena in complexsystems with different architectures, composed of elements withperiodic or chaotic individual dynamics. Special attention is paid tostatistical concepts, such as nonequilibrium phase transitions, orderparameters and dynamical glasses.

  8. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed

    2017-01-05

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population games, namely so-called “stable games”. In particular, it was shown that a combination of stable games and (an analogue of) passive evolutionary dynamics results in stable convergence to Nash equilibrium. This paper considers the converse question of necessary conditions for evolutionary dynamics to exhibit stable behaviors for all generalized stable games. Using methods from robust control analysis, we show that if an evolutionary dynamic does not satisfy a passivity property, then it is possible to construct a generalized stable game that results in instability. The results are illustrated on selected evolutionary dynamics with particular attention to replicator dynamics, which are also shown to be lossless, a special class of passive systems.

  9. Population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia species ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genus Pseudo-nitzschia is a chain-forming diatom comprising about 30 species some of which are known to produce domoic acid (DA) that causes amnesic shellfish poisoning (ASP). The current study aimed at assessing the population dynamics of Pseudo-nitzschia in the near shore waters of Dar es Salaam. Samples ...

  10. Tracking excited-state charge and spin dynamics in iron coordination complexes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Wenkai; Alonso-Mori, Roberto; Bergmann, Uwe

    2014-01-01

    to spin state, can elucidate the spin crossover dynamics of [Fe(2,2'-bipyridine)(3)](2+) on photoinduced metal-to-ligand charge transfer excitation. We are able to track the charge and spin dynamics, and establish the critical role of intermediate spin states in the crossover mechanism. We anticipate......Crucial to many light-driven processes in transition metal complexes is the absorption and dissipation of energy by 3d electrons(1-4). But a detailed understanding of such non-equilibrium excited-state dynamics and their interplay with structural changes is challenging: a multitude of excited...... states and possible transitions result in phenomena too complex to unravel when faced with the indirect sensitivity of optical spectroscopy to spin dynamics(5) and the flux limitations of ultrafast X-ray sources(6,7). Such a situation exists for archetypal poly-pyridyl iron complexes, such as [Fe(2...

  11. Synchronization in Complex Networks of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Wu, Chai Wah

    2007-01-01

    This book brings together two emerging research areas: synchronization in coupled nonlinear systems and complex networks, and study conditions under which a complex network of dynamical systems synchronizes. While there are many texts that study synchronization in chaotic systems or properties of complex networks, there are few texts that consider the intersection of these two very active and interdisciplinary research areas. The main theme of this book is that synchronization conditions can be related to graph theoretical properties of the underlying coupling topology. The book introduces ide

  12. Transparency in complex dynamic food supply chains

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trienekens, J.H.; Wognum, P.M.; Beulens, A.J.M.; Vorst, van der J.G.A.J.

    2012-01-01

    Food supply chains are increasingly complex and dynamic due to (i) increasing product proliferation to serve ever diversifying and globalising markets as a form of mass customisation with resulting global flows of raw materials, ingredients and products, and (ii) the need to satisfy changing and

  13. Dynamical responses to external stimuli for both cases of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization in a complex neuronal network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Sang-Yoon; Lim, Woochang

    2017-10-01

    For studying how dynamical responses to external stimuli depend on the synaptic-coupling type, we consider two types of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization (i.e., synchronization via synaptic excitation and inhibition) in complex small-world networks of excitatory regular spiking (RS) pyramidal neurons and inhibitory fast spiking (FS) interneurons. For both cases of excitatory and inhibitory synchronization, effects of synaptic couplings on dynamical responses to external time-periodic stimuli S ( t ) (applied to a fraction of neurons) are investigated by varying the driving amplitude A of S ( t ). Stimulated neurons are phase-locked to external stimuli for both cases of excitatory and inhibitory couplings. On the other hand, the stimulation effect on non-stimulated neurons depends on the type of synaptic coupling. The external stimulus S ( t ) makes a constructive effect on excitatory non-stimulated RS neurons (i.e., it causes external phase lockings in the non-stimulated sub-population), while S ( t ) makes a destructive effect on inhibitory non-stimulated FS interneurons (i.e., it breaks up original inhibitory synchronization in the non-stimulated sub-population). As results of these different effects of S ( t ), the type and degree of dynamical response (e.g., synchronization enhancement or suppression), characterized by the dynamical response factor [Formula: see text] (given by the ratio of synchronization degree in the presence and absence of stimulus), are found to vary in a distinctly different way, depending on the synaptic-coupling type. Furthermore, we also measure the matching degree between the dynamics of the two sub-populations of stimulated and non-stimulated neurons in terms of a "cross-correlation" measure [Formula: see text]. With increasing A , based on [Formula: see text], we discuss the cross-correlations between the two sub-populations, affecting the dynamical responses to S ( t ).

  14. Aspiration dynamics of multi-player games in finite populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Jinming; Wu, Bin; Altrock, Philipp M; Wang, Long

    2014-05-06

    On studying strategy update rules in the framework of evolutionary game theory, one can differentiate between imitation processes and aspiration-driven dynamics. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer. In the latter case, individuals adjust their strategies based on a comparison of their pay-offs from the evolutionary game to a value they aspire, called the level of aspiration. Unlike imitation processes of pairwise comparison, aspiration-driven updates do not require additional information about the strategic environment and can thus be interpreted as being more spontaneous. Recent work has mainly focused on understanding how aspiration dynamics alter the evolutionary outcome in structured populations. However, the baseline case for understanding strategy selection is the well-mixed population case, which is still lacking sufficient understanding. We explore how aspiration-driven strategy-update dynamics under imperfect rationality influence the average abundance of a strategy in multi-player evolutionary games with two strategies. We analytically derive a condition under which a strategy is more abundant than the other in the weak selection limiting case. This approach has a long-standing history in evolutionary games and is mostly applied for its mathematical approachability. Hence, we also explore strong selection numerically, which shows that our weak selection condition is a robust predictor of the average abundance of a strategy. The condition turns out to differ from that of a wide class of imitation dynamics, as long as the game is not dyadic. Therefore, a strategy favoured under imitation dynamics can be disfavoured under aspiration dynamics. This does not require any population structure, and thus highlights the intrinsic difference between imitation and aspiration dynamics.

  15. Perceived price complexity of dynamic energy tariffs: An investigation of antecedents and consequences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Layer, Patrick; Feurer, Sven; Jochem, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic tariffs have the potential to contribute to a successful shift from conventional to renewable energies, but tapping this potential in Europe ultimately depends on residential consumers selecting them. This study proposes and finds that consumer reactions to dynamic tariffs depend on the level of perceived price complexity that represents the cognitive effort consumers must engage in to compute the overall bill amount. An online experiment conducted with a representative sample of 664 German residential energy consumers examines how salient characteristics of dynamic tariffs contribute to perceived price complexity. Subsequently, a structural equation model (SEM) reveals that the depth of information processing is central to understand how price complexity relates to consumers’ behavioral intentions. The results suggest that it will be challenging to convince European consumers to select complex dynamic tariffs under the current legal framework. Policymakers will need to find ways to make these tariffs more attractive. - Highlights: • Little is known about the processes by which consumers evaluate dynamic tariffs. • In this evaluation process perceived price complexity plays a central role. • Tariff type, price endings, and discount presentation format drive price complexity. • Perceived price complexity decreases the depth of information processing. • A decreased depth of information processing ultimately leads to lower behavioral intentions.

  16. On the population dynamics of the malaria vector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ngwa, G.A.

    2005-10-01

    A deterministic differential equation model for the population dynamics of the human malaria vector is derived and studied. Conditions for the existence and stability of a non-zero steady state vector population density are derived. These reveal that a threshold parameter, the vectorial basic reproduction number, exist and the vector can establish itself in the community if and only if this parameter exceeds unity. When a non-zero steady state population density exists, it can be stable but it can also be driven to instability via a Hopf Bifurcation to periodic solutions, as a parameter is varied in parameter space. By considering a special case, an asymptotic perturbation analysis is used to derive the amplitude of the oscillating solutions for the full non-linear system. The present modelling exercise and results show that it is possible to study the population dynamics of disease vectors, and hence oscillatory behaviour as it is often observed in most indirectly transmitted infectious diseases of humans, without recourse to external seasonal forcing. (author)

  17. Volterra representation enables modeling of complex synaptic nonlinear dynamics in large-scale simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Eric Y; Bouteiller, Jean-Marie C; Song, Dong; Baudry, Michel; Berger, Theodore W

    2015-01-01

    Chemical synapses are comprised of a wide collection of intricate signaling pathways involving complex dynamics. These mechanisms are often reduced to simple spikes or exponential representations in order to enable computer simulations at higher spatial levels of complexity. However, these representations cannot capture important nonlinear dynamics found in synaptic transmission. Here, we propose an input-output (IO) synapse model capable of generating complex nonlinear dynamics while maintaining low computational complexity. This IO synapse model is an extension of a detailed mechanistic glutamatergic synapse model capable of capturing the input-output relationships of the mechanistic model using the Volterra functional power series. We demonstrate that the IO synapse model is able to successfully track the nonlinear dynamics of the synapse up to the third order with high accuracy. We also evaluate the accuracy of the IO synapse model at different input frequencies and compared its performance with that of kinetic models in compartmental neuron models. Our results demonstrate that the IO synapse model is capable of efficiently replicating complex nonlinear dynamics that were represented in the original mechanistic model and provide a method to replicate complex and diverse synaptic transmission within neuron network simulations.

  18. The Hidden Complexity of Mendelian Traits across Natural Yeast Populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Hou

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Mendelian traits are considered to be at the lower end of the complexity spectrum of heritable phenotypes. However, more than a century after the rediscovery of Mendel’s law, the global landscape of monogenic variants, as well as their effects and inheritance patterns within natural populations, is still not well understood. Using the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we performed a species-wide survey of Mendelian traits across a large population of isolates. We generated offspring from 41 unique parental pairs and analyzed 1,105 cross/trait combinations. We found that 8.9% of the cases were Mendelian. Further tracing of causal variants revealed background-specific expressivity and modified inheritances, gradually transitioning from Mendelian to complex traits in 30% of the cases. In fact, when taking into account the natural population diversity, the hidden complexity of traits could be substantial, confounding phenotypic predictability even for simple Mendelian traits.

  19. Molecular dynamics study of thermodynamic stability and dynamics of [Li(glyme)]+ complex in lithium-glyme solvate ionic liquids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinoda, Wataru; Hatanaka, Yuta; Hirakawa, Masashi; Okazaki, Susumu; Tsuzuki, Seiji; Ueno, Kazuhide; Watanabe, Masayoshi

    2018-05-01

    Equimolar mixtures of glymes and organic lithium salts are known to produce solvate ionic liquids, in which the stability of the [Li(glyme)]+ complex plays an important role in determining the ionic dynamics. Since these mixtures have attractive physicochemical properties for application as electrolytes, it is important to understand the dependence of the stability of the [Li(glyme)]+ complex on the ion dynamics. A series of microsecond molecular dynamics simulations has been conducted to investigate the dynamic properties of these solvate ionic liquids. Successful solvate ionic liquids with high stability of the [Li(glyme)]+ complex have been shown to have enhanced ion dynamics. Li-glyme pair exchange rarely occurs: its characteristic time is longer than that of ion diffusion by one or two orders of magnitude. Li-glyme pair exchange most likely occurs through cluster formation involving multiple [Li(glyme)]+ pairs. In this process, multiple exchanges likely take place in a concerted manner without the production of energetically unfavorable free glyme or free Li+ ions.

  20. Thinking in complexity the complex dynamics of matter, mind, and mankind

    CERN Document Server

    Mainzer, Klaus

    1994-01-01

    The theory of nonlinear complex systems has become a successful and widely used problem-solving approach in the natural sciences - from laser physics, quantum chaos and meteorology to molecular modeling in chemistry and computer simulations of cell growth in biology In recent times it has been recognized that many of the social, ecological and political problems of mankind are also of a global, complex and nonlinear nature And one of the most exciting topics of present scientific and public interest is the idea that even the human mind is governed largely by the nonlinear dynamics of complex systems In this wide-ranging but concise treatment Prof Mainzer discusses, in nontechnical language, the common framework behind these endeavours Special emphasis is given to the evolution of new structures in natural and cultural systems and it is seen clearly how the new integrative approach of complexity theory can give new insights that were not available using traditional reductionistic methods

  1. Bridging the Timescales of Single-Cell and Population Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jafarpour, Farshid; Wright, Charles S.; Gudjonson, Herman; Riebling, Jedidiah; Dawson, Emma; Lo, Klevin; Fiebig, Aretha; Crosson, Sean; Dinner, Aaron R.; Iyer-Biswas, Srividya

    2018-04-01

    How are granular details of stochastic growth and division of individual cells reflected in smooth deterministic growth of population numbers? We provide an integrated, multiscale perspective of microbial growth dynamics by formulating a data-validated theoretical framework that accounts for observables at both single-cell and population scales. We derive exact analytical complete time-dependent solutions to cell-age distributions and population growth rates as functionals of the underlying interdivision time distributions, for symmetric and asymmetric cell division. These results provide insights into the surprising implications of stochastic single-cell dynamics for population growth. Using our results for asymmetric division, we deduce the time to transition from the reproductively quiescent (swarmer) to the replication-competent (stalked) stage of the Caulobacter crescentus life cycle. Remarkably, population numbers can spontaneously oscillate with time. We elucidate the physics leading to these population oscillations. For C. crescentus cells, we show that a simple measurement of the population growth rate, for a given growth condition, is sufficient to characterize the condition-specific cellular unit of time and, thus, yields the mean (single-cell) growth and division timescales, fluctuations in cell division times, the cell-age distribution, and the quiescence timescale.

  2. Dynamic properties of epidemic spreading on finite size complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ying; Liu, Yang; Shan, Xiu-Ming; Ren, Yong; Jiao, Jian; Qiu, Ben

    2005-11-01

    The Internet presents a complex topological structure, on which computer viruses can easily spread. By using theoretical analysis and computer simulation methods, the dynamic process of disease spreading on finite size networks with complex topological structure is investigated. On the finite size networks, the spreading process of SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) model is a finite Markov chain with an absorbing state. Two parameters, the survival probability and the conditional infecting probability, are introduced to describe the dynamic properties of disease spreading on finite size networks. Our results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks. Also, knowledge about the dynamic character of virus spreading is helpful for adopting immunity policy.

  3. Dynamic coherence in excitonic molecular complexes under various excitation conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chenu, Aurélia; Malý, Pavel; Mančal, Tomáš, E-mail: mancal@karlov.mff.cuni.cz

    2014-08-17

    Highlights: • Dynamic coherence does not improve energy transfer efficiency in natural conditions. • Photo-induced quantum jumps are discussed in classical context. • Natural time scale of a light excitation event is identified. • Coherence in FMO complex averages out under excitation by neighboring antenna. • This result is valid even in absence of dissipation. - Abstract: We investigate the relevance of dynamic quantum coherence in the energy transfer efficiency of molecular aggregates. We derive the time evolution of the density matrix for an open quantum system excited by light or by a neighboring antenna. Unlike in the classical case, the quantum description does not allow for a formal decomposition of the dynamics into sudden jumps in an observable quantity – an expectation value. Rather, there is a natural finite time-scale associated with the excitation process. We propose a simple experiment to test the influence of this time scale on the yield of photosynthesis. We demonstrate, using typical parameters of the Fenna–Matthews–Olson (FMO) complex and a typical energy transfer rate from the chlorosome baseplate, that dynamic coherences are averaged out in the complex even when the FMO model is completely free of all dissipation and dephasing.

  4. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

    2015-10-22

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

  5. A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

    2015-01-01

    In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

  6. Calculating evolutionary dynamics in structured populations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles G Nathanson

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Evolution is shaping the world around us. At the core of every evolutionary process is a population of reproducing individuals. The outcome of an evolutionary process depends on population structure. Here we provide a general formula for calculating evolutionary dynamics in a wide class of structured populations. This class includes the recently introduced "games in phenotype space" and "evolutionary set theory." There can be local interactions for determining the relative fitness of individuals, but we require global updating, which means all individuals compete uniformly for reproduction. We study the competition of two strategies in the context of an evolutionary game and determine which strategy is favored in the limit of weak selection. We derive an intuitive formula for the structure coefficient, sigma, and provide a method for efficient numerical calculation.

  7. Dynamic, Interactive and Visual Analysis of Population Distribution and Mobility Dynamics in an Urban Environment Using the Mobility Explorer Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Peters-Anders

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper investigates the extent to which a mobile data source can be utilised to generate new information intelligence for decision-making in smart city planning processes. In this regard, the Mobility Explorer framework is introduced and applied to the City of Vienna (Austria by using anonymised mobile phone data from a mobile phone service provider. This framework identifies five necessary elements that are needed to develop complex planning applications. As part of the investigation and experiments a new dynamic software tool, called Mobility Explorer, has been designed and developed based on the requirements of the planning department of the City of Vienna. As a result, the Mobility Explorer enables city stakeholders to interactively visualise the dynamic diurnal population distribution, mobility patterns and various other complex outputs for planning needs. Based on the experiences during the development phase, this paper discusses mobile data issues, presents the visual interface, performs various user-defined analyses, demonstrates the application’s usefulness and critically reflects on the evaluation results of the citizens’ motion exploration that reveal the great potential of mobile phone data in smart city planning but also depict its limitations. These experiences and lessons learned from the Mobility Explorer application development provide useful insights for other cities and planners who want to make informed decisions using mobile phone data in their city planning processes through dynamic visualisation of Call Data Record (CDR data.

  8. How complex a dynamical network can be?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baptista, M.S.; Kakmeni, F. Moukam; Del Magno, Gianluigi; Hussein, M.S.

    2011-01-01

    Positive Lyapunov exponents measure the asymptotic exponential divergence of nearby trajectories of a dynamical system. Not only they quantify how chaotic a dynamical system is, but since their sum is an upper bound for the rate of information production, they also provide a convenient way to quantify the complexity of a dynamical network. We conjecture based on numerical evidences that for a large class of dynamical networks composed by equal nodes, the sum of the positive Lyapunov exponents is bounded by the sum of all the positive Lyapunov exponents of both the synchronization manifold and its transversal directions, the last quantity being in principle easier to compute than the latter. As applications of our conjecture we: (i) show that a dynamical network composed of equal nodes and whose nodes are fully linearly connected produces more information than similar networks but whose nodes are connected with any other possible connecting topology; (ii) show how one can calculate upper bounds for the information production of realistic networks whose nodes have parameter mismatches, randomly chosen; (iii) discuss how to predict the behavior of a large dynamical network by knowing the information provided by a system composed of only two coupled nodes.

  9. Evolution of complex dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilds, Roy; Kauffman, Stuart A.; Glass, Leon

    2008-09-01

    We study the evolution of complex dynamics in a model of a genetic regulatory network. The fitness is associated with the topological entropy in a class of piecewise linear equations, and the mutations are associated with changes in the logical structure of the network. We compare hill climbing evolution, in which only mutations that increase the fitness are allowed, with neutral evolution, in which mutations that leave the fitness unchanged are allowed. The simple structure of the fitness landscape enables us to estimate analytically the rates of hill climbing and neutral evolution. In this model, allowing neutral mutations accelerates the rate of evolutionary advancement for low mutation frequencies. These results are applicable to evolution in natural and technological systems.

  10. Complex Hamiltonian Dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Bountis, Tassos

    2012-01-01

    This book introduces and explores modern developments in the well established field of Hamiltonian dynamical systems. It focuses on high degree-of-freedom systems and the transitional regimes between regular and chaotic motion. The role of nonlinear normal modes is highlighted and the importance of low-dimensional tori in the resolution of the famous FPU paradox is emphasized. Novel powerful numerical methods are used to study localization phenomena and distinguish order from strongly and weakly chaotic regimes. The emerging hierarchy of complex structures in such regimes gives rise to particularly long-lived patterns and phenomena called quasi-stationary states, which are explored in particular in the concrete setting of one-dimensional Hamiltonian lattices and physical applications in condensed matter systems.  The self-contained and pedagogical approach is blended with a unique balance between mathematical rigor, physics insights and concrete applications. End of chapter exercises and (more demanding) res...

  11. Modeling structured population dynamics using data from unmarked individuals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Zipkin, Elise; Thorson, James T.; See, Kevin; Lynch, Heather J.; Kanno, Yoichiro; Chandler, Richard; Letcher, Benjamin H.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The study of population dynamics requires unbiased, precise estimates of abundance and vital rates that account for the demographic structure inherent in all wildlife and plant populations. Traditionally, these estimates have only been available through approaches that rely on intensive mark–recapture data. We extended recently developed N-mixture models to demonstrate how demographic parameters and abundance can be estimated for structured populations using only stage-structured count data. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inferences on abundance as well as recruitment, immigration, stage-specific survival, and detection rates during sampling. We present a range of simulations to illustrate the data requirements, including the number of years and locations necessary for accurate and precise parameter estimates. We apply our modeling framework to a population of northern dusky salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus) in the mid-Atlantic region (USA) and find that the population is unexpectedly declining. Our approach represents a valuable advance in the estimation of population dynamics using multistate data from unmarked individuals and should additionally be useful in the development of integrated models that combine data from intensive (e.g., mark–recapture) and extensive (e.g., counts) data sources.

  12. Macroscopic law of conservation revealed in the population dynamics of Toll-like receptor signaling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selvarajoo Kumar

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Stimulating the receptors of a single cell generates stochastic intracellular signaling. The fluctuating response has been attributed to the low abundance of signaling molecules and the spatio-temporal effects of diffusion and crowding. At population level, however, cells are able to execute well-defined deterministic biological processes such as growth, division, differentiation and immune response. These data reflect biology as a system possessing microscopic and macroscopic dynamics. This commentary discusses the average population response of the Toll-like receptor (TLR 3 and 4 signaling. Without requiring detailed experimental data, linear response equations together with the fundamental law of information conservation have been used to decipher novel network features such as unknown intermediates, processes and cross-talk mechanisms. For single cell response, however, such simplicity seems far from reality. Thus, as observed in any other complex systems, biology can be considered to possess order and disorder, inheriting a mixture of predictable population level and unpredictable single cell outcomes.

  13. Population dynamics and distribution of the coffee berry borer ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Population dynamics and distribution of coffee berry borer, Hypothenemus hampei (Ferrari) (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were studied on Coffea arabica L. in southwestern region of Ethiopia. Thirty coffee trees were sampled at weekly intervals from 2000 to 2001. Findings of this study showed that coffee berry borer population ...

  14. [Population dynamics and armed violence in Colombia, 1985-2010].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salaya, Hernán Eduardo; Rodríguez, Jesús

    2014-09-01

    Describe changes in the population structure of Colombia's municipalities in relation to internal displacement in response to armed violence. A descriptive ecological study was carried out. Secondary sources were consulted, taken from the Consolidated Registry of Displaced Population and from the National Administrative Department of Statistics, to calculate expulsion and reception rates for population displaced by violence from 2002 to 2010. Based on these rates, four groups were created of municipalities in the extreme quartile for each rate during the entire period, which were classified as high expulsion, low expulsion, high reception, and low reception. Subsequently, population pyramids and structure indicators were constructed for each group of municipalities for two comparative reference years (1985 and 2010). Municipalities with high expulsion or reception rates experienced a slower epidemiological transition, with lower mean ages and aging indices. The high expulsion group had the least regression, based on the Sundbärg index. In the high reception group, the masculinity ratio decreased the most, especially among the economically active population, and it had the highest population growth. Population dynamics in Colombia have been affected by armed violence and changes in these dynamics are not uniform across the country, leading to important social, economic, and cultural consequences. This study is useful for decision-making and public policy making.

  15. Metrical and dynamical aspects in complex analysis

    CERN Document Server

    2017-01-01

    The central theme of this reference book is the metric geometry of complex analysis in several variables. Bridging a gap in the current literature, the text focuses on the fine behavior of the Kobayashi metric of complex manifolds and its relationships to dynamical systems, hyperbolicity in the sense of Gromov and operator theory, all very active areas of research. The modern points of view expressed in these notes, collected here for the first time, will be of interest to academics working in the fields of several complex variables and metric geometry. The different topics are treated coherently and include expository presentations of the relevant tools, techniques and objects, which will be particularly useful for graduate and PhD students specializing in the area.

  16. Homogenization techniques for population dynamics in strongly heterogeneous landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yurk, Brian P; Cobbold, Christina A

    2018-12-01

    An important problem in spatial ecology is to understand how population-scale patterns emerge from individual-level birth, death, and movement processes. These processes, which depend on local landscape characteristics, vary spatially and may exhibit sharp transitions through behavioural responses to habitat edges, leading to discontinuous population densities. Such systems can be modelled using reaction-diffusion equations with interface conditions that capture local behaviour at patch boundaries. In this work we develop a novel homogenization technique to approximate the large-scale dynamics of the system. We illustrate our approach, which also generalizes to multiple species, with an example of logistic growth within a periodic environment. We find that population persistence and the large-scale population carrying capacity is influenced by patch residence times that depend on patch preference, as well as movement rates in adjacent patches. The forms of the homogenized coefficients yield key theoretical insights into how large-scale dynamics arise from the small-scale features.

  17. Modeling and complexity of stochastic interacting Lévy type financial price dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yiduan; Zheng, Shenzhou; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun; Wang, Guochao

    2018-06-01

    In attempt to reproduce and investigate nonlinear dynamics of security markets, a novel nonlinear random interacting price dynamics, which is considered as a Lévy type process, is developed and investigated by the combination of lattice oriented percolation and Potts dynamics, which concerns with the instinctive random fluctuation and the fluctuation caused by the spread of the investors' trading attitudes, respectively. To better understand the fluctuation complexity properties of the proposed model, the complexity analyses of random logarithmic price return and corresponding volatility series are preformed, including power-law distribution, Lempel-Ziv complexity and fractional sample entropy. In order to verify the rationality of the proposed model, the corresponding studies of actual security market datasets are also implemented for comparison. The empirical results reveal that this financial price model can reproduce some important complexity features of actual security markets to some extent. The complexity of returns decreases with the increase of parameters γ1 and β respectively, furthermore, the volatility series exhibit lower complexity than the return series

  18. Understanding long-term fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) population dynamics: implications for areawide management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aluja, Martín; Ordano, Mariano; Guillén, Larissa; Rull, Juan

    2012-06-01

    Fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) are devastating agricultural pests worldwide but studies on their long-term population dynamics are sparse. Our aim was to determine the mechanisms driving long-term population dynamics as a prerequisite for ecologically based areawide pest management. The population density of three pestiferous Anastrepha species [Anastrepha ludens (Loew), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha serpentina (Wiedemann)] was determined in grapefruit (Citrus x paradisi Macfad.), mango (Mangifera indica L.), and sapodilla [Manilkara zapota (L.) P. Royen] orchards in central Veracruz, México, on a weekly basis over an 11-yr period. Fly populations exhibited relatively stable dynamics over time. Population dynamics were mainly driven by a direct density-dependent effect and a seasonal feedback process. We discovered direct and delayed influences that were correlated with both local (rainfall and air temperature) and global climatic variation (El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO] and North Atlantic Oscillation [NAO]), and detected differences among species and location of orchards with respect to the magnitude and nature (linear or nonlinear) of the observed effects, suggesting that highly mobile pest outbreaks become uncertain in response to significant climatic events at both global and local levels. That both NAO and ENSO affected Anastrepha population dynamics, coupled with the high mobility of Anastrepha adults and the discovery that when measured as rate of population change, local population fluctuations exhibited stable dynamics over time, suggests potential management scenarios for the species studied lie beyond the local scale and should be approached from an areawide perspective. Localized efforts, from individual growers will probably prove ineffective, and nonsustainable.

  19. The Influence of Information Acquisition on the Complex Dynamics of Market Competition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Zhanbing; Ma, Junhai

    In this paper, we build a dynamical game model with three bounded rational players (firms) to study the influence of information on the complex dynamics of market competition, where useful information is about rival’s real decision. In this dynamical game model, one information-sharing team is composed of two firms, they acquire and share the information about their common competitor, however, they make their own decisions separately, where the amount of information acquired by this information-sharing team will determine the estimation accuracy about the rival’s real decision. Based on this dynamical game model and some creative 3D diagrams, the influence of the amount of information on the complex dynamics of market competition such as local dynamics, global dynamics and profits is studied. These results have significant theoretical and practical values to realize the influence of information.

  20. Dispersal, density dependence, and population dynamics of a fungal microbe on leaf surfaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woody, Scott T; Ives, Anthony R; Nordheim, Erik V; Andrews, John H

    2007-06-01

    Despite the ubiquity and importance of microbes in nature, little is known about their natural population dynamics, especially for those that occupy terrestrial habitats. Here we investigate the dynamics of the yeast-like fungus Aureobasidium pullulans (Ap) on apple leaves in an orchard. We asked three questions. (1) Is variation in fungal population density among leaves caused by variation in leaf carrying capacities and strong density-dependent population growth that maintains densities near carrying capacity? (2) Do resident populations have competitive advantages over immigrant cells? (3) Do Ap dynamics differ at different times during the growing season? To address these questions, we performed two experiments at different times in the growing season. Both experiments used a 2 x 2 factorial design: treatment 1 removed fungal cells from leaves to reveal density-dependent population growth, and treatment 2 inoculated leaves with an Ap strain engineered to express green fluorescent protein (GFP), which made it possible to track the fate of immigrant cells. The experiments showed that natural populations of Ap vary greatly in density due to sustained differences in carrying capacities among leaves. The maintenance of populations close to carrying capacities indicates strong density-dependent processes. Furthermore, resident populations are strongly competitive against immigrants, while immigrants have little impact on residents. Finally, statistical models showed high population growth rates of resident cells in one experiment but not in the other, suggesting that Ap experiences relatively "good" and "bad" periods for population growth. This picture of Ap dynamics conforms to commonly held, but rarely demonstrated, expectations of microbe dynamics in nature. It also highlights the importance of local processes, as opposed to immigration, in determining the abundance and dynamics of microbes on surfaces in terrestrial systems.

  1. Passivity analysis of higher order evolutionary dynamics and population games

    KAUST Repository

    Mabrok, Mohamed; Shamma, Jeff S.

    2017-01-01

    Evolutionary dynamics describe how the population composition changes in response to the fitness levels, resulting in a closed-loop feedback system. Recent work established a connection between passivity theory and certain classes of population

  2. Social Information Links Individual Behavior to Population and Community Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gil, Michael A; Hein, Andrew M; Spiegel, Orr; Baskett, Marissa L; Sih, Andrew

    2018-05-07

    When individual animals make decisions, they routinely use information produced intentionally or unintentionally by other individuals. Despite its prevalence and established fitness consequences, the effects of such social information on ecological dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we synthesize results from ecology, evolutionary biology, and animal behavior to show how the use of social information can profoundly influence the dynamics of populations and communities. We combine recent theoretical and empirical results and introduce simple population models to illustrate how social information use can drive positive density-dependent growth of populations and communities (Allee effects). Furthermore, social information can shift the nature and strength of species interactions, change the outcome of competition, and potentially increase extinction risk in harvested populations and communities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Network evolution induced by the dynamical rules of two populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Platini, Thierry; Zia, R K P

    2010-01-01

    We study the dynamical properties of a finite dynamical network composed of two interacting populations, namely extrovert (a) and introvert (b). In our model, each group is characterized by its size (N a and N b ) and preferred degree (κ a and κ b a ). The network dynamics is governed by the competing microscopic rules of each population that consist of the creation and destruction of links. Starting from an unconnected network, we give a detailed analysis of the mean field approach which is compared to Monte Carlo simulation data. The time evolution of the restricted degrees (k bb ) and (k ab ) presents three time regimes and a non-monotonic behavior well captured by our theory. Surprisingly, when the population sizes are equal N a = N b , the ratio of the restricted degree θ 0 = (k ab )/(k bb ) appears to be an integer in the asymptotic limits of the three time regimes. For early times (defined by t 1 = κ b ) the total number of links presents a linear evolution, where the two populations are indistinguishable and where θ 0 = 1. Interestingly, in the intermediate time regime (defined for t 1 2 ∝κ a and for which θ 0 = 5), the system reaches a transient stationary state, where the number of contacts among introverts remains constant while the number of connections increases linearly in the extrovert population. Finally, due to the competing dynamics, the network presents a frustrated stationary state characterized by a ratio θ 0 = 3

  4. A general modeling framework for describing spatially structured population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sample, Christine; Fryxell, John; Bieri, Joanna; Federico, Paula; Earl, Julia; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady; Flockhart, Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Diffendorfer, James E.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Norris, D. Ryan

    2017-01-01

    Variation in movement across time and space fundamentally shapes the abundance and distribution of populations. Although a variety of approaches model structured population dynamics, they are limited to specific types of spatially structured populations and lack a unifying framework. Here, we propose a unified network-based framework sufficiently novel in its flexibility to capture a wide variety of spatiotemporal processes including metapopulations and a range of migratory patterns. It can accommodate different kinds of age structures, forms of population growth, dispersal, nomadism and migration, and alternative life-history strategies. Our objective was to link three general elements common to all spatially structured populations (space, time and movement) under a single mathematical framework. To do this, we adopt a network modeling approach. The spatial structure of a population is represented by a weighted and directed network. Each node and each edge has a set of attributes which vary through time. The dynamics of our network-based population is modeled with discrete time steps. Using both theoretical and real-world examples, we show how common elements recur across species with disparate movement strategies and how they can be combined under a unified mathematical framework. We illustrate how metapopulations, various migratory patterns, and nomadism can be represented with this modeling approach. We also apply our network-based framework to four organisms spanning a wide range of life histories, movement patterns, and carrying capacities. General computer code to implement our framework is provided, which can be applied to almost any spatially structured population. This framework contributes to our theoretical understanding of population dynamics and has practical management applications, including understanding the impact of perturbations on population size, distribution, and movement patterns. By working within a common framework, there is less chance

  5. Complex Human Dynamics From Mind to Societies

    CERN Document Server

    Winkowska-Nowak, Katarzyna; Brée, David

    2013-01-01

    This book, edited and authored by a closely collaborating network of social scientists and psychologists, recasts typical research topics in these fields into the language of nonlinear, dynamic and complex systems. The aim is to provide scientists with different backgrounds - physics, applied mathematics and computer sciences - with the opportunity to apply the tools of their trade to an altogether new range of possible applications. At the same time, this book will serve as a first reference for a new generation of social scientists and psychologists wishing to familiarize themselves with the new methodology and the "thinking in complexity".

  6. Effects of wind farms on harbour porpoise behaviour and population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Tougaard, Jakob; Teilmann, Jonas

    We developed an individual-based simulation model in order to study the cumulative impacts of wind farms and ship traffic on the long-term survival and population dynamics of the harbour porpoise (Phocoena phocoena) in Kattegat and the Belt Seas. The model is based on knowl- edge of the porpoises...... at distances >1 km. Our simulations suggest that operating wind farms and wind farms under construction do not affect the size or dynamics of the harbour porpoise population in Kattegat. Ship traffic may, in contrast, cause the population size to decrease....

  7. Learning to Estimate Dynamical State with Probabilistic Population Codes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph G Makin

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Tracking moving objects, including one's own body, is a fundamental ability of higher organisms, playing a central role in many perceptual and motor tasks. While it is unknown how the brain learns to follow and predict the dynamics of objects, it is known that this process of state estimation can be learned purely from the statistics of noisy observations. When the dynamics are simply linear with additive Gaussian noise, the optimal solution is the well known Kalman filter (KF, the parameters of which can be learned via latent-variable density estimation (the EM algorithm. The brain does not, however, directly manipulate matrices and vectors, but instead appears to represent probability distributions with the firing rates of population of neurons, "probabilistic population codes." We show that a recurrent neural network-a modified form of an exponential family harmonium (EFH-that takes a linear probabilistic population code as input can learn, without supervision, to estimate the state of a linear dynamical system. After observing a series of population responses (spike counts to the position of a moving object, the network learns to represent the velocity of the object and forms nearly optimal predictions about the position at the next time-step. This result builds on our previous work showing that a similar network can learn to perform multisensory integration and coordinate transformations for static stimuli. The receptive fields of the trained network also make qualitative predictions about the developing and learning brain: tuning gradually emerges for higher-order dynamical states not explicitly present in the inputs, appearing as delayed tuning for the lower-order states.

  8. Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

    2010-07-27

    While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

  9. The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

    2013-01-01

    Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

  10. SIR dynamics in structured populations with heterogeneous connectivity

    OpenAIRE

    Volz, Erik

    2005-01-01

    Most epidemic models assume equal mixing among members of a population. An alternative approach is to model a population as random network in which individuals may have heterogeneous connectivity. This paper builds on previous research by describing the exact dynamical behavior of epidemics as they occur in random networks. A system of nonlinear differential equations is presented which describes the behavior of epidemics spreading through random networks with arbitrary degree distributions. ...

  11. Nonlinear stochastic interacting dynamics and complexity of financial gasket fractal-like lattice percolation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wei; Wang, Jun

    2018-05-01

    A novel nonlinear stochastic interacting price dynamics is proposed and investigated by the bond percolation on Sierpinski gasket fractal-like lattice, aim to make a new approach to reproduce and study the complexity dynamics of real security markets. Fractal-like lattices correspond to finite graphs with vertices and edges, which are similar to fractals, and Sierpinski gasket is a well-known example of fractals. Fractional ordinal array entropy and fractional ordinal array complexity are introduced to analyze the complexity behaviors of financial signals. To deeper comprehend the fluctuation characteristics of the stochastic price evolution, the complexity analysis of random logarithmic returns and volatility are preformed, including power-law distribution, fractional sample entropy and fractional ordinal array complexity. For further verifying the rationality and validity of the developed stochastic price evolution, the actual security market dataset are also studied with the same statistical methods for comparison. The empirical results show that this stochastic price dynamics can reconstruct complexity behaviors of the actual security markets to some extent.

  12. Complex, Dynamic Systems: A New Transdisciplinary Theme for Applied Linguistics?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane

    2012-01-01

    In this plenary address, I suggest that Complexity Theory has the potential to contribute a transdisciplinary theme to applied linguistics. Transdisciplinary themes supersede disciplines and spur new kinds of creative activity (Halliday 2001 [1990]). Investigating complex systems requires researchers to pay attention to system dynamics. Since…

  13. Geography, European colonization, and past population dynamics in Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Vaz Silva, Luis

    2005-01-01

    Past population dynamics in Africa have remained largely elusive due to the lack of demographic data. Researchers are understandably deterred from trying to explain what is not known and African historical population estimates suffer from this lack of interest. In this paper I explain present day African population densities using mostly ecological factors as explanatory variables. I find evidence supporting the view that ecological factors deeply affected precolonial patterns of human settle...

  14. Understanding the Complexity of Temperature Dynamics in Xinjiang, China, from Multitemporal Scale and Spatial Perspectives

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianhua Xu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the observed data from 51 meteorological stations during the period from 1958 to 2012 in Xinjiang, China, we investigated the complexity of temperature dynamics from the temporal and spatial perspectives by using a comprehensive approach including the correlation dimension (CD, classical statistics, and geostatistics. The main conclusions are as follows (1 The integer CD values indicate that the temperature dynamics are a complex and chaotic system, which is sensitive to the initial conditions. (2 The complexity of temperature dynamics decreases along with the increase of temporal scale. To describe the temperature dynamics, at least 3 independent variables are needed at daily scale, whereas at least 2 independent variables are needed at monthly, seasonal, and annual scales. (3 The spatial patterns of CD values at different temporal scales indicate that the complex temperature dynamics are derived from the complex landform.

  15. Complex dynamics and bifurcation analysis of host–parasitoid models with impulsive control strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Jin; Tang, Sanyi; Tan, Yuanshun

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We develop novel host-parasitoid models with impulsive control strategy. • The effects of key parameters on the successful control have been addressed. • The complex dynamics and related biological significance are investigated. • The results between two types of host-parasitoid models have been discussed. - Abstract: In this paper, we propose and analyse two type host–parasitoid models with integrated pest management (IPM) interventions as impulsive control strategies. For fixed pulsed model, the threshold condition for the global stability of the host-eradication periodic solution is provided, and the effects of key parameters including the impulsive period, proportionate killing rate, instantaneous search rate, releasing constant, survival rate and the proportionate release rate on the threshold condition are discussed. Then latin hypercube sampling /partial rank correlation coefficients are used to carry out sensitivity analyses to determine the significance of each parameters. Further, bifurcation analyses are presented and the results show that coexistence of attractors existed for a wide range of parameters, and the switch-like transitions among these attractors indicate that varying dosages and frequencies of insecticide applications and numbers of parasitoid released are crucial for IPM strategy. For unfixed pulsed model, the results show that this model exists very complex dynamics and the host population can be controlled below ET, and it implies that the modelling methods are helpful for improving optimal strategies to design appropriate IPM.

  16. Beech Fructification and Bank Vole Population Dynamics--Combined Analyses of Promoters of Human Puumala Virus Infections in Germany.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Reil

    Full Text Available The transmission of wildlife zoonoses to humans depends, amongst others, on complex interactions of host population ecology and pathogen dynamics within host populations. In Europe, the Puumala virus (PUUV causes nephropathia epidemica in humans. In this study we investigated complex interrelations within the epidemic system of PUUV and its rodent host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus. We suggest that beech fructification and bank vole abundance are both decisive factors affecting human PUUV infections. While rodent host dynamics are expected to be directly linked to human PUUV infections, beech fructification is a rather indirect predictor by serving as food source for PUUV rodent hosts. Furthermore, we examined the dependence of bank vole abundance on beech fructification. We analysed a 12-year (2001-2012 time series of the parameters: beech fructification (as food resource for the PUUV host, bank vole abundance and human incidences from 7 Federal States of Germany. For the first time, we could show the direct interrelation between these three parameters involved in human PUUV epidemics and we were able to demonstrate on a large scale that human PUUV infections are highly correlated with bank vole abundance in the present year, as well as beech fructification in the previous year. By using beech fructification and bank vole abundance as predictors in one model we significantly improved the degree of explanation of human PUUV incidence. Federal State was included as random factor because human PUUV incidence varies considerably among states. Surprisingly, the effect of rodent abundance on human PUUV infections is less strong compared to the indirect effect of beech fructification. Our findings are useful to facilitate the development of predictive models for host population dynamics and the related PUUV infection risk for humans and can be used for plant protection and human health protection purposes.

  17. An Empirical Study of AI Population Dynamics with Million-agent Reinforcement Learning

    OpenAIRE

    Yang, Yaodong; Yu, Lantao; Bai, Yiwei; Wang, Jun; Zhang, Weinan; Wen, Ying; Yu, Yong

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we conduct an empirical study on discovering the ordered collective dynamics obtained by a population of artificial intelligence (AI) agents. Our intention is to put AI agents into a simulated natural context, and then to understand their induced dynamics at the population level. In particular, we aim to verify if the principles developed in the real world could also be used in understanding an artificially-created intelligent population. To achieve this, we simulate a large-sc...

  18. Analysis of Instantaneous Linear, Nonlinear and Complex Cardiovascular Dynamics from Videophotoplethysmography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valenza, Gaetano; Iozzia, Luca; Cerina, Luca; Mainardi, Luca; Barbieri, Riccardo

    2018-05-01

    There is a fast growing interest in the use of non-contact devices for health and performance assessment in humans. In particular, the use of non-contact videophotoplethysmography (vPPG) has been recently demonstrated as a feasible way to extract cardiovascular information. Nevertheless, proper validation of vPPG-derived heartbeat dynamics is still missing. We aim to an in-depth validation of time-varying, linear and nonlinear/complex dynamics of the pulse rate variability extracted from vPPG. We apply inhomogeneous pointprocess nonlinear models to assess instantaneous measures defined in the time, frequency, and bispectral domains as estimated through vPPG and standard ECG. Instantaneous complexity measures, such as the instantaneous Lyapunov exponents and the recently defined inhomogeneous point-process approximate and sample entropy, were estimated as well. Video recordings were processed using our recently proposed method based on zerophase principal component analysis. Experimental data were gathered from 60 young healthy subjects (age: 24±3 years) undergoing postural changes (rest-to-stand maneuver). Group averaged results show that there is an overall agreement between linear and nonlinear/complexity indices computed from ECG and vPPG during resting state conditions. However, important differences are found, particularly in the bispectral and complexity domains, in recordings where the subjects has been instructed to stand up. Although significant differences exist between cardiovascular estimates from vPPG and ECG, it is very promising that instantaneous sympathovagal changes, as well as time-varying complex dynamics, were correctly identified, especially during resting state. In addition to a further improvement of the video signal quality, more research is advocated towards a more precise estimation of cardiovascular dynamics by a comprehensive nonlinear/complex paradigm specifically tailored to the non-contact quantification. Schattauer GmbH.

  19. Adaptive Synchronization of Fractional Order Complex-Variable Dynamical Networks via Pinning Control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Da-Wei; Yan, Jie; Wang, Nian; Liang, Dong

    2017-09-01

    In this paper, the synchronization of fractional order complex-variable dynamical networks is studied using an adaptive pinning control strategy based on close center degree. Some effective criteria for global synchronization of fractional order complex-variable dynamical networks are derived based on the Lyapunov stability theory. From the theoretical analysis, one concludes that under appropriate conditions, the complex-variable dynamical networks can realize the global synchronization by using the proper adaptive pinning control method. Meanwhile, we succeed in solving the problem about how much coupling strength should be applied to ensure the synchronization of the fractional order complex networks. Therefore, compared with the existing results, the synchronization method in this paper is more general and convenient. This result extends the synchronization condition of the real-variable dynamical networks to the complex-valued field, which makes our research more practical. Finally, two simulation examples show that the derived theoretical results are valid and the proposed adaptive pinning method is effective. Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 61201227, National Natural Science Foundation of China Guangdong Joint Fund under Grant No. U1201255, the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province under Grant No. 1208085MF93, 211 Innovation Team of Anhui University under Grant Nos. KJTD007A and KJTD001B, and also supported by Chinese Scholarship Council

  20. The demographic drivers of local population dynamics in two rare migratory birds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaub, Michael; Reichlin, Thomas S; Abadi, Fitsum; Kéry, Marc; Jenni, Lukas; Arlettaz, Raphaël

    2012-01-01

    The exchange of individuals among populations can have strong effects on the dynamics and persistence of a given population. Yet, estimation of immigration rates remains one of the greatest challenges for animal demographers. Little empirical knowledge exists about the effects of immigration on population dynamics. New integrated population models fitted using Bayesian methods enable simultaneous estimation of fecundity, survival and immigration, as well as the growth rate of a population of interest. We applied this novel analytical framework to the demography of two populations of long-distance migratory birds, hoopoe Upupa epops and wryneck Jynx torquilla, in a study area in south-western Switzerland. During 2002-2010, the hoopoe population increased annually by 11%, while the wryneck population remained fairly stable. Apparent juvenile and adult survival probability was nearly identical in both species, but fecundity and immigration were slightly higher in the hoopoe. Hoopoe population growth rate was strongly correlated with juvenile survival, fecundity and immigration, while that of wrynecks strongly correlated only with immigration. This indicates that demographic components impacting the arrival of new individuals into the populations were more important for their dynamics than demographic components affecting the loss of individuals. The finding that immigration plays a crucial role in the population growth rates of these two rare species emphasizes the need for a broad rather than local perspective for population studies, and the development of wide-scale conservation actions.

  1. The Impact of Evolutionary Driving Forces on Human Complex Diseases: A Population Genetics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amr T. M. Saeb

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Investigating the molecular evolution of human genome has paved the way to understand genetic adaptation of humans to the environmental changes and corresponding complex diseases. In this review, we discussed the historical origin of genetic diversity among human populations, the evolutionary driving forces that can affect genetic diversity among populations, and the effects of human movement into new environments and gene flow on population genetic diversity. Furthermore, we presented the role of natural selection on genetic diversity and complex diseases. Then we reviewed the disadvantageous consequences of historical selection events in modern time and their relation to the development of complex diseases. In addition, we discussed the effect of consanguinity on the incidence of complex diseases in human populations. Finally, we presented the latest information about the role of ancient genes acquired from interbreeding with ancient hominids in the development of complex diseases.

  2. Complexity, fractal dynamics and determinism in treadmill ambulation: Implications for clinical biomechanists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollman, John H; Watkins, Molly K; Imhoff, Angela C; Braun, Carly E; Akervik, Kristen A; Ness, Debra K

    2016-08-01

    Reduced inter-stride complexity during ambulation may represent a pathologic state. Evidence is emerging that treadmill training for rehabilitative purposes may constrain the locomotor system and alter gait dynamics in a way that mimics pathological states. The purpose of this study was to examine the dynamical system components of gait complexity, fractal dynamics and determinism during treadmill ambulation. Twenty healthy participants aged 23.8 (1.2) years walked at preferred walking speeds for 6min on a motorized treadmill and overground while wearing APDM 6 Opal inertial monitors. Stride times, stride lengths and peak sagittal plane trunk velocities were measured. Mean values and estimates of complexity, fractal dynamics and determinism were calculated for each parameter. Data were compared between overground and treadmill walking conditions. Mean values for each gait parameter were statistically equivalent between overground and treadmill ambulation (P>0.05). Through nonlinear analyses, however, we found that complexity in stride time signals (P<0.001), and long-range correlations in stride time and stride length signals (P=0.005 and P=0.024, respectively), were reduced on the treadmill. Treadmill ambulation induces more predictable inter-stride time dynamics and constrains fluctuations in stride times and stride lengths, which may alter feedback from destabilizing perturbations normally experienced by the locomotor control system during overground ambulation. Treadmill ambulation, therefore, may provide less opportunity for experiencing the adaptability necessary to successfully ambulate overground. Investigators and clinicians should be aware that treadmill ambulation will alter dynamic gait characteristics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Capturing complexity in work disability research: application of system dynamics modeling methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Hettinger, Lawrence J

    2016-01-01

    Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models. System dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention. SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered. Contemporary work disability (WD) models provide limited insight into complexity associated with WD processes. System dynamics modeling (SDM) has the potential to capture complexity through a stakeholder-based approach that generates a simulation model consisting of multiple feedback loops. SDM may enable WD researchers and practitioners to understand the structure and behavior of the WD system as a whole, and inform development of improved strategies to manage straightforward and complex WD cases.

  4. Structural and dynamical insights on HLA-DR2 complexes that confer susceptibility to multiple sclerosis in Sardinia: a molecular dynamics simulation study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amit Kumar

    Full Text Available Sardinia is a major Island in the Mediterranean with a high incidence of multiple sclerosis, a chronic autoimmune inflammatory disease of the central nervous system. Disease susceptibility in Sardinian population has been associated with five alleles of major histocompatibility complex (MHC class II DRB1 gene. We performed 120 ns of molecular dynamics simulation on one predisposing and one protective alleles, unbound and in complex with the two relevant peptides: Myelin Basic Protein and Epstein Barr Virus derived peptide. In particular we focused on the MHC peptide binding groove dynamics. The predisposing allele was found to form a stable complex with both the peptides, while the protective allele displayed stability only when bound with myelin peptide. The local flexibility of the MHC was probed dividing the binding groove into four compartments covering the well known peptide anchoring pockets. The predisposing allele in the first half cleft exhibits a narrower and more rigid groove conformation in the presence of myelin peptide. The protective allele shows a similar behavior, while in the second half cleft it displays a narrower and more flexible groove conformation in the presence of viral peptide. We further characterized these dynamical differences by evaluating H-bonds, hydrophobic and stacking interaction networks, finding striking similarities with super-type patterns emerging in other autoimmune diseases. The protective allele shows a defined preferential binding to myelin peptide, as confirmed by binding free energy calculations. All together, we believe the presented molecular analysis could help to design experimental assays, supports the molecular mimicry hypothesis and suggests that propensity to multiple sclerosis in Sardinia could be partly linked to distinct peptide-MHC interaction and binding characteristics of the antigen presentation mechanism.

  5. Nonequilibrium population dynamics of phenotype conversion of cancer cells.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Xu Zhou

    Full Text Available Tumorigenesis is a dynamic biological process that involves distinct cancer cell subpopulations proliferating at different rates and interconverting between them. In this paper we proposed a mathematical framework of population dynamics that considers both distinctive growth rates and intercellular transitions between cancer cell populations. Our mathematical framework showed that both growth and transition influence the ratio of cancer cell subpopulations but the latter is more significant. We derived the condition that different cancer cell types can maintain distinctive subpopulations and we also explain why there always exists a stable fixed ratio after cell sorting based on putative surface markers. The cell fraction ratio can be shifted by changing either the growth rates of the subpopulations (Darwinism selection or by environment-instructed transitions (Lamarckism induction. This insight can help us to understand the dynamics of the heterogeneity of cancer cells and lead us to new strategies to overcome cancer drug resistance.

  6. The basic approach to age-structured population dynamics models, methods and numerics

    CERN Document Server

    Iannelli, Mimmo

    2017-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to age-structured population modeling which emphasises the connection between mathematical theory and underlying biological assumptions. Through the rigorous development of the linear theory and the nonlinear theory alongside numerics, the authors explore classical equations that describe the dynamics of certain ecological systems. Modeling aspects are discussed to show how relevant problems in the fields of demography, ecology, and epidemiology can be formulated and treated within the theory. In particular, the book presents extensions of age-structured modelling to the spread of diseases and epidemics while also addressing the issue of regularity of solutions, the asymptotic behaviour of solutions, and numerical approximation. With sections on transmission models, non-autonomous models and global dynamics, this book fills a gap in the literature on theoretical population dynamics. The Basic Approach to Age-Structured Population Dynamics will appeal to graduate students an...

  7. Outlier-resilient complexity analysis of heartbeat dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Men-Tzung; Chang, Yi-Chung; Lin, Chen; Young, Hsu-Wen Vincent; Lin, Yen-Hung; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Peng, Chung-Kang; Hu, Kun

    2015-03-01

    Complexity in physiological outputs is believed to be a hallmark of healthy physiological control. How to accurately quantify the degree of complexity in physiological signals with outliers remains a major barrier for translating this novel concept of nonlinear dynamic theory to clinical practice. Here we propose a new approach to estimate the complexity in a signal by analyzing the irregularity of the sign time series of its coarse-grained time series at different time scales. Using surrogate data, we show that the method can reliably assess the complexity in noisy data while being highly resilient to outliers. We further apply this method to the analysis of human heartbeat recordings. Without removing any outliers due to ectopic beats, the method is able to detect a degradation of cardiac control in patients with congestive heart failure and a more degradation in critically ill patients whose life continuation relies on extracorporeal membrane oxygenator (ECMO). Moreover, the derived complexity measures can predict the mortality of ECMO patients. These results indicate that the proposed method may serve as a promising tool for monitoring cardiac function of patients in clinical settings.

  8. Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

    2014-08-01

    Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

  9. Adaptive control of structural balance for complex dynamical networks based on dynamic coupling of nodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zilin; Wang, Yinhe; Zhang, Lili

    2018-02-01

    In the existing research results of the complex dynamical networks controlled, the controllers are mainly used to guarantee the synchronization or stabilization of the nodes’ state, and the terms coupled with connection relationships may affect the behaviors of nodes, this obviously ignores the dynamic common behavior of the connection relationships between the nodes. In fact, from the point of view of large-scale system, a complex dynamical network can be regarded to be composed of two time-varying dynamic subsystems, which can be called the nodes subsystem and the connection relationships subsystem, respectively. Similar to the synchronization or stabilization of the nodes subsystem, some characteristic phenomena can be also emerged in the connection relationships subsystem. For example, the structural balance in the social networks and the synaptic facilitation in the biological neural networks. This paper focuses on the structural balance in dynamic complex networks. Generally speaking, the state of the connection relationships subsystem is difficult to be measured accurately in practical applications, and thus it is not easy to implant the controller directly into the connection relationships subsystem. It is noted that the nodes subsystem and the relationships subsystem are mutually coupled, which implies that the state of the connection relationships subsystem can be affected by the controllable state of nodes subsystem. Inspired by this observation, by using the structural balance theory of triad, the controller with the parameter adaptive law is proposed for the nodes subsystem in this paper, which may ensure the connection relationship matrix to approximate a given structural balance matrix in the sense of the uniformly ultimately bounded (UUB). That is, the structural balance may be obtained by employing the controlling state of the nodes subsystem. Finally, the simulations are used to show the validity of the method in this paper.

  10. Influence of a large late summer precipitation event on food limitation and grasshopper population dynamics in a northern Great Plains grassland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Branson, David H

    2008-06-01

    The complex interplay between grasshoppers, weather conditions, and plants that cause fluctuations in grasshopper populations remains poorly understood, and little is known about the ecological processes that generate grasshopper outbreaks. Grasshopper populations respond to interacting extrinsic and intrinsic factors, with yearly and decadal weather patterns and the timing of precipitation all potentially important. The effects of initial and increasing grasshopper densities on grasshopper survival and reproductive correlates were examined at a northern mixed-grass prairie site through manipulations of grasshopper densities inside 10-m2 cages. High-quality grass growth occurred after a 9.1-cm mid-August rain. Reduced proportional survival was apparent in the two higher density treatments before the rain, indicative of food-limited density-dependent mortality. However, the large late summer rainfall event mediated the effects of exploitative competition on demographic characteristics because of the high-quality vegetation growth. This led to weaker effects of food limitation on survival and reproduction at the end of the experiment. The results indicate a direct link between weather variation, resource quality and grasshopper population dynamics led to a severe grasshopper outbreak and show that infrequent large precipitation events can have significant effects on population dynamics. Additional research is needed to examine the importance of infrequent large precipitation events on grasshopper population dynamics in grassland ecosystems.

  11. Autonomous Collision-Free Navigation of Microvehicles in Complex and Dynamically Changing Environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Tianlong; Chang, Xiaocong; Wu, Zhiguang; Li, Jinxing; Shao, Guangbin; Deng, Xinghong; Qiu, Jianbin; Guo, Bin; Zhang, Guangyu; He, Qiang; Li, Longqiu; Wang, Joseph

    2017-09-26

    Self-propelled micro- and nanoscale robots represent a rapidly emerging and fascinating robotics research area. However, designing autonomous and adaptive control systems for operating micro/nanorobotics in complex and dynamically changing environments, which is a highly demanding feature, is still an unmet challenge. Here we describe a smart microvehicle for precise autonomous navigation in complicated environments and traffic scenarios. The fully autonomous navigation system of the smart microvehicle is composed of a microscope-coupled CCD camera, an artificial intelligence planner, and a magnetic field generator. The microscope-coupled CCD camera provides real-time localization of the chemically powered Janus microsphere vehicle and environmental detection for path planning to generate optimal collision-free routes, while the moving direction of the microrobot toward a reference position is determined by the external electromagnetic torque. Real-time object detection offers adaptive path planning in response to dynamically changing environments. We demonstrate that the autonomous navigation system can guide the vehicle movement in complex patterns, in the presence of dynamically changing obstacles, and in complex biological environments. Such a navigation system for micro/nanoscale vehicles, relying on vision-based close-loop control and path planning, is highly promising for their autonomous operation in complex dynamic settings and unpredictable scenarios expected in a variety of realistic nanoscale scenarios.

  12. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

  13. Population dynamics of light-limited phytoplankton : Microcosm experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huisman, Jef

    This paper investigates the extent to which the predictions of an elementary model for light-limited growth are matched by laboratory experiments with light-limited phytoplankton. The model and experiments link the population dynamics of phytoplankton species with changes in the light gradient

  14. Complex and adaptive dynamical systems a primer

    CERN Document Server

    Gros, Claudius

    2013-01-01

    Complex system theory is rapidly developing and gaining importance, providing tools and concepts central to our modern understanding of emergent phenomena. This primer offers an introduction to this area together with detailed coverage of the mathematics involved. All calculations are presented step by step and are straightforward to follow. This new third edition comes with new material, figures and exercises. Network theory, dynamical systems and information theory, the core of modern complex system sciences, are developed in the first three chapters, covering basic concepts and phenomena like small-world networks, bifurcation theory and information entropy. Further chapters use a modular approach to address the most important concepts in complex system sciences, with the emergence and self-organization playing a central role. Prominent examples are self-organized criticality in adaptive systems, life at the edge of chaos, hypercycles and coevolutionary avalanches, synchronization phenomena, absorbing phase...

  15. Modelling the dynamics of the health-production complex in livestock herds

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, J.T.; Enevoldsen, Carsten

    1992-01-01

    This paper reviews how the dynamics of the health-production complex in livestock herds is mimicked by livestock herd simulation models. Twelve models simulating the dynamics of dairy, beef, sheep and sow herds were examined. All models basically included options to alter input and output...

  16. Direct characterization of chaotic and stochastic dynamics in a population model with strong periodicity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tung Wenwen; Qi Yan; Gao, J.B.; Cao Yinhe; Billings, Lora

    2005-01-01

    In recent years it has been increasingly recognized that noise and determinism may have comparable but different influences on population dynamics. However, no simple analysis methods have been introduced into ecology which can readily characterize those impacts. In this paper, we study a population model with strong periodicity and both with and without noise. The noise-free model generates both quasi-periodic and chaotic dynamics for certain parameter values. Due to the strong periodicity, however, the generated chaotic dynamics have not been satisfactorily described. The dynamics becomes even more complicated when there is noise. Characterizing the chaotic and stochastic dynamics in this model thus represents a challenging problem. Here we show how the chaotic dynamics can be readily characterized by the direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos developed by [Gao JB, Zheng ZM. Europhys. Lett. 1994;25:485] and how the influence of noise on quasi-periodic motions can be characterized as asymmetric diffusions wandering along the quasi-periodic orbit. It is hoped that the introduced methods will be useful in studying other population models as well as population time series obtained both in field and laboratory experiments

  17. Efficient characterisation of large deviations using population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Tobias; Clark, Stephen R.; Bradford, Russell; Jack, Robert L.

    2018-05-01

    We consider population dynamics as implemented by the cloning algorithm for analysis of large deviations of time-averaged quantities. We use the simple symmetric exclusion process with periodic boundary conditions as a prototypical example and investigate the convergence of the results with respect to the algorithmic parameters, focussing on the dynamical phase transition between homogeneous and inhomogeneous states, where convergence is relatively difficult to achieve. We discuss how the performance of the algorithm can be optimised, and how it can be efficiently exploited on parallel computing platforms.

  18. Evolutionary dynamics of complex communications networks

    CERN Document Server

    Karyotis, Vasileios; Papavassiliou, Symeon

    2013-01-01

    Until recently, most network design techniques employed a bottom-up approach with lower protocol layer mechanisms affecting the development of higher ones. This approach, however, has not yielded fascinating results in the case of wireless distributed networks. Addressing the emerging aspects of modern network analysis and design, Evolutionary Dynamics of Complex Communications Networks introduces and develops a top-bottom approach where elements of the higher layer can be exploited in modifying the lowest physical topology-closing the network design loop in an evolutionary fashion similar to

  19. A Single-Cell Biochemistry Approach Reveals PAR Complex Dynamics during Cell Polarization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Daniel J; Schwager, Francoise; Pintard, Lionel; Gotta, Monica; Goldstein, Bob

    2017-08-21

    Regulated protein-protein interactions are critical for cell signaling, differentiation, and development. For the study of dynamic regulation of protein interactions in vivo, there is a need for techniques that can yield time-resolved information and probe multiple protein binding partners simultaneously, using small amounts of starting material. Here we describe a single-cell protein interaction assay. Single-cell lysates are generated at defined time points and analyzed using single-molecule pull-down, yielding information about dynamic protein complex regulation in vivo. We established the utility of this approach by studying PAR polarity proteins, which mediate polarization of many animal cell types. We uncovered striking regulation of PAR complex composition and stoichiometry during Caenorhabditis elegans zygote polarization, which takes place in less than 20 min. PAR complex dynamics are linked to the cell cycle by Polo-like kinase 1 and govern the movement of PAR proteins to establish polarity. Our results demonstrate an approach to study dynamic biochemical events in vivo. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Genetic population structure of sympatric and allopatric populations of Baltic ciscoes (Coregonus albula complex, Teleostei, Coregonidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehner, Thomas; Pohlmann, Kirsten; Elkin, Che; Monaghan, Michael T; Nitz, Barbara; Freyhof, Jörg

    2010-03-29

    Teleost fishes of the Coregonidae are good model systems for studying postglacial evolution, adaptive radiation and ecological speciation. Of particular interest is whether the repeated occurrence of sympatric species pairs results from in-situ divergence from a single lineage or from multiple invasions of one or more different lineages. Here, we analysed the genetic structure of Baltic ciscoes (Coregonus albula complex), examining 271 individuals from 8 lakes in northern Germany using 1244 polymorphic AFLP loci. Six lakes had only one population of C. albula while the remaining two lakes had C. albula as well as a sympatric species (C. lucinensis or C. fontanae). AFLP demonstrated a significant population structure (Bayesian thetaB = 0.22). Lower differentiation between allopatric (thetaB = 0.028) than sympatric (0.063-0.083) populations contradicts the hypothesis of a sympatric origin of taxa, and there was little evidence for stocking or ongoing hybridization. Genome scans found only three loci that appeared to be under selection in both sympatric population pairs, suggesting a low probability of similar mechanisms of ecological segregation. However, removal of all non-neutral loci decreased the genetic distance between sympatric pairs, suggesting recent adaptive divergence at a few loci. Sympatric pairs in the two lakes were genetically distinct from the six other C. albula populations, suggesting introgression from another lineage may have influenced these two lakes. This was supported by an analysis of isolation-by-distance, where the drift-gene flow equilibrium observed among allopatric populations was disrupted when the sympatric pairs were included. While the population genetic data alone can not unambiguously uncover the mode of speciation, our data indicate that multiple lineages may be responsible for the complex patterns typically observed in Coregonus. Relative differences within and among lakes raises the possibility that multiple lineages may be

  1. Complex dynamics in the development of the first tarsal segment of Drosophila melanogaster

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan Nicolas Malagon

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Gene, protein and cell interactions are vital for the development of a multicellular organism. As a result, complexity theory can be a fundamental tool to understand how diverse developmental and evolutionary processes occur. However, in most scientific programs these two fields are separated. In an effort to create a connection between the Evo-devo and complexity science, this article shows how the cell dynamics of epithelia can display behaviours with similar features to complex systems. Here, I propose that these cell dynamics, in addition to control cell density in epithelia, can provide high evolvability to this type of tissue. To achieve this goal, I used a as a systems the development of Drosophila melanogaster front legs. First, I provide an example in which order at the tissue level emerge from apparently random cell dynamics. Then, I show that small modifications in epithelial cellular components can produce highly organized or the opposite random cell dynamics. Therefore, this work shows that a developing epithelium displays signs of complex behaviours and I propose that the feedback between tension and cellular processes are key for understanding how multicellular organisms development and evolve. Such studies may reveal the mechanistic basis of complex processes that bridge several levels of organization.

  2. Ruffed grouse population dynamics in the central and southern Appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Giuliano Tirpak; C. Allan Miller; Thomas J. Allen; Steve Bittner; David A. Buehler; John W. Edwards; Craig A. Harper; William K. Igo; Gary W. Norman; M. Seamster; Dean F. Stauffer

    2006-01-01

    Ruffed grouse (Bonasa urnbellus; hereafter grouse) populations in the central and southern Appalachians are in decline. However, limited information on the dynamics of these populations prevents the development of effective management strategies to reverse these trends. We used radiotelemetry data collected on grouse to parameterize 6 models of...

  3. How Random Is Social Behaviour? Disentangling Social Complexity through the Study of a Wild House Mouse Population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perony, Nicolas; Tessone, Claudio J.; König, Barbara; Schweitzer, Frank

    2012-01-01

    Out of all the complex phenomena displayed in the behaviour of animal groups, many are thought to be emergent properties of rather simple decisions at the individual level. Some of these phenomena may also be explained by random processes only. Here we investigate to what extent the interaction dynamics of a population of wild house mice (Mus domesticus) in their natural environment can be explained by a simple stochastic model. We first introduce the notion of perceptual landscape, a novel tool used here to describe the utilisation of space by the mouse colony based on the sampling of individuals in discrete locations. We then implement the behavioural assumptions of the perceptual landscape in a multi-agent simulation to verify their accuracy in the reproduction of observed social patterns. We find that many high-level features – with the exception of territoriality – of our behavioural dataset can be accounted for at the population level through the use of this simplified representation. Our findings underline the potential importance of random factors in the apparent complexity of the mice's social structure. These results resonate in the general context of adaptive behaviour versus elementary environmental interactions. PMID:23209394

  4. Exploring dynamical complexity in diffusion driven predator-prey systems: Effect of toxin producing phytoplankton and spatial heterogeneities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Upadhyay, Ranjit Kumar; Kumari, Nitu; Rai, Vikas

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, dynamical complexities in two reaction-diffusion (RD) model systems are explored. A spatial heterogeneity in the form of linear spatial gradient in the reproductive growth rate of the phytoplankton is incorporated in both the model systems. Extra mortality of the zooplankton due to toxin production by the phytoplankton is included in the second reaction diffusion model system. Effect of toxin production and spatial heterogeneity in the model systems are studied. Toxin production does not seem to have an appreciable effect on the asymptotic dynamics of the model systems. On the other hand, spatial heterogeneity does influence the dynamics. In particular, it increases the frequency of occurrence of chaos as evident from two dimensional parameter scans. Both these model systems display short term recurrent chaos [Rai V. Chaos in natural populations: edge or wedge? Ecol Complex 2004;1: 127-38] as they reside on 'edges of chaos' (EOC) [Rai V, Upadhyay RK. Evolving to the edge of chaos: chance or necessity? Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2006;30:1074-87]. This suggests that the ecological systems have a tendency to evolve to EOC. The study corroborates the inferences drawn from an earlier study by Rai and Upadhyay [Rai V, Upadhyay RK. Evolving to the edge of chaos: chance or necessity? Chaos, Solitons and Fractals 2006;30:1074-87]. The system's dynamics is largely unpredictable and admits bursts of short-term predictability.

  5. Modelling population dynamics model formulation, fitting and assessment using state-space methods

    CERN Document Server

    Newman, K B; Morgan, B J T; King, R; Borchers, D L; Cole, D J; Besbeas, P; Gimenez, O; Thomas, L

    2014-01-01

    This book gives a unifying framework for estimating the abundance of open populations: populations subject to births, deaths and movement, given imperfect measurements or samples of the populations.  The focus is primarily on populations of vertebrates for which dynamics are typically modelled within the framework of an annual cycle, and for which stochastic variability in the demographic processes is usually modest. Discrete-time models are developed in which animals can be assigned to discrete states such as age class, gender, maturity,  population (within a metapopulation), or species (for multi-species models). The book goes well beyond estimation of abundance, allowing inference on underlying population processes such as birth or recruitment, survival and movement. This requires the formulation and fitting of population dynamics models.  The resulting fitted models yield both estimates of abundance and estimates of parameters characterizing the underlying processes.  

  6. Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes and associated damage to potato

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schans, J.

    1993-01-01

    Population dynamics of potato cyst nematodes (PCN; Globoderarostochiensis (Woll.) Skarbilovich and G. pallida Stone) and their interactions with potato plants are insufficiently understood to explain variations of population

  7. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  8. Identifying Complex Dynamics in Social Systems: A New Methodological Approach Applied to Study School Segregation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spaiser, Viktoria; Hedström, Peter; Ranganathan, Shyam; Jansson, Kim; Nordvik, Monica K.; Sumpter, David J. T.

    2018-01-01

    It is widely recognized that segregation processes are often the result of complex nonlinear dynamics. Empirical analyses of complex dynamics are however rare, because there is a lack of appropriate empirical modeling techniques that are capable of capturing complex patterns and nonlinearities. At the same time, we know that many social phenomena…

  9. Nonlinear dynamics, chaos and complex cardiac arrhythmias

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glass, L.; Courtemanche, M.; Shrier, A.; Goldberger, A. L.

    1987-01-01

    Periodic stimulation of a nonlinear cardiac oscillator in vitro gives rise to complex dynamics that is well described by one-dimensional finite difference equations. As stimulation parameters are varied, a large number of different phase-locked and chaotic rhythms is observed. Similar rhythms can be observed in the intact human heart when there is interaction between two pacemaker sites. Simplified models are analyzed, which show some correspondence to clinical observations.

  10. Boom or bust? A comparative analysis of transient population dynamics in plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stott, Iain; Franco, Miguel; Carslake, David

    2010-01-01

    researchers as further possible effectors of complicated dynamics. Previously published methods of transient analysis have tended to require knowledge of initial population structure. However, this has been overcome by the recent development of the parametric Kreiss bound (which describes how large...... a population must become before reaching its maximum possible transient amplification following a disturbance) and the extension of this and other transient indices to simultaneously describe both amplified and attenuated transient dynamics. We apply the Kreiss bound and other transient indices to a data base...... worrying artefact of basic model parameterization. Synthesis. Transient indices describe how big or how small plant populations can get, en route to long-term stable rates of increase or decline. The patterns we found in the potential for transient dynamics, across many species of plants, suggest...

  11. Dynamic and interacting complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickison, Mark E.

    This thesis employs methods of statistical mechanics and numerical simulations to study some aspects of dynamic and interacting complex networks. The mapping of various social and physical phenomena to complex networks has been a rich field in the past few decades. Subjects as broad as petroleum engineering, scientific collaborations, and the structure of the internet have all been analyzed in a network physics context, with useful and universal results. In the first chapter we introduce basic concepts in networks, including the two types of network configurations that are studied and the statistical physics and epidemiological models that form the framework of the network research, as well as covering various previously-derived results in network theory that are used in the work in the following chapters. In the second chapter we introduce a model for dynamic networks, where the links or the strengths of the links change over time. We solve the model by mapping dynamic networks to the problem of directed percolation, where the direction corresponds to the time evolution of the network. We show that the dynamic network undergoes a percolation phase transition at a critical concentration pc, that decreases with the rate r at which the network links are changed. The behavior near criticality is universal and independent of r. We find that for dynamic random networks fundamental laws are changed: i) The size of the giant component at criticality scales with the network size N for all values of r, rather than as N2/3 in static network, ii) In the presence of a broad distribution of disorder, the optimal path length between two nodes in a dynamic network scales as N1/2, compared to N1/3 in a static network. The third chapter consists of a study of the effect of quarantine on the propagation of epidemics on an adaptive network of social contacts. For this purpose, we analyze the susceptible-infected-recovered model in the presence of quarantine, where susceptible

  12. Automated X-ray television complex for testing large dynamic objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gusev, E.A.; Luk'yanenko, Eh.A.; Chelnokov, V.B.; Kuleshov, V.K.; Alkhimov, Yu.V.

    1992-01-01

    An automated X-ray television complex on the base of matrix gas-dischage large-area (2.1x1.0 m) converter for testing large cargoes and containers, as well as for inductrial article diagnostics is described. The complex pulsed operation with the 512 kbytes television digital memory unit provides for testing dynamic objects under minimal doses (20-100 μR)

  13. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand

  14. Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

    2013-02-01

    Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  15. An age structured model for obesity prevalence dynamics in populations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilberto González Parra

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Objective. Modeling the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time and predict the dynamics of the correlation of the development of obesity in a population with age and time under different scenarios in Valencia (Spain. Materials and methods. An age structured mathematical model is used to describe the future dynamics of obesity prevalence for different ages in human population with excess weight. Simulation of the model with parameters estimated using the Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2000 (4.319 interviews and Health Survey of the Region of Valencia 2005 (4.012 interviews. The model considers only overweight and obese populations since these subpopulations are the most relevant on obesity health concern. Results. The model allows predicting and studying the prevalence of obesity for each age. Results showed an increasing trend of obesity in the following years in well accordance with the trend observed in several countries. Conclusions. Based on the numerical simulations it is possible to conclude that the age structured mathematical model is suitable to forecast the obesity epidemic in each age group in different countries. Additionally, this type of models may be applied to study other characteristics of other populations such animal populations.

  16. Software complex for developing dynamically packed program system for experiment automation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baluka, G.; Salamatin, I.M.

    1985-01-01

    Software complex for developing dynamically packed program system for experiment automation is considered. The complex includes general-purpose programming systems represented as the RT-11 standard operating system and specially developed problem-oriented moduli providing execution of certain jobs. The described complex is realized in the PASKAL' and MAKRO-2 languages and it is rather flexible to variations of the technique of the experiment

  17. Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

    2017-10-03

    Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

  18. Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cushing, J M; Henson, Shandelle M

    2018-02-03

    For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population dynamics. Motivated by recent field studies of the effect of rising sea surface temperature (SST) on within-breeding-season behaviors in colonial seabirds, we formulate and analyze a general class of discrete-time matrix models designed to account for changes in behavioral tactics within the breeding season and their dynamic consequences at the population level across breeding seasons. As a specific example, we focus on egg cannibalism and the daily reproductive synchrony observed in seabirds. Using the model, we investigate circumstances under which these life history tactics can be beneficial or non-beneficial at the population level in light of the expected continued rise in SST. Using bifurcation theoretic techniques, we study the nature of non-extinction, seasonal cycles as a function of environmental resource availability as they are created upon destabilization of the extinction state. Of particular interest are backward bifurcations in that they typically create strong Allee effects in population models which, in turn, lead to the benefit of possible (initial condition dependent) survival in adverse environments. We find that positive density effects (component Allee effects) due to increased adult survival from cannibalism and the propensity of females to synchronize daily egg laying can produce a strong Allee effect due to a backward bifurcation.

  19. Complexity, Chaos, and Nonlinear Dynamics: A New Perspective on Career Development Theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloch, Deborah P.

    2005-01-01

    The author presents a theory of career development drawing on nonlinear dynamics and chaos and complexity theories. Career is presented as a complex adaptive entity, a fractal of the human entity. Characteristics of complex adaptive entities, including (a) autopiesis, or self-regeneration; (b) open exchange; (c) participation in networks; (d)…

  20. Interacting trophic forcing and the population dynamics of herring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindegren, Martin; Ostman, Orjan; Gardmark, Anna

    2011-01-01

    -up nor top-down, but rather through multiple external and internal drivers. While in many studies single drivers have been identified, potential synergies of multiple factors, as well as their relative importance in regulating population dynamics of small pelagic fish, is a largely unresolved issue....... Using a statistical, age-structured modeling approach, we demonstrate the relative importance and influence of bottom-up (e.g., climate, zooplankton availability) and top-down (i.e., fishing and predation) factors on the population dynamics of Bothnian Sea herring (Clupea harengus) throughout its life...... cycle. Our results indicate significant bottom-up effects of zooplankton and interspecific competition from sprat (Sprattus sprattus), particularly on younger age classes of herring. Although top-down forcing through fishing and predation by grey seals (Halichoerus grypus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua...

  1. Controlling collective dynamics in complex minority-game resource-allocation systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ji-Qiang; Huang, Zi-Gang; Dong, Jia-Qi; Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

    2013-05-01

    Resource allocation takes place in various kinds of real-world complex systems, such as traffic systems, social services institutions or organizations, or even ecosystems. The fundamental principle underlying complex resource-allocation dynamics is Boolean interactions associated with minority games, as resources are generally limited and agents tend to choose the least used resource based on available information. A common but harmful dynamical behavior in resource-allocation systems is herding, where there are time intervals during which a large majority of the agents compete for a few resources, leaving many other resources unused. Accompanying the herd behavior is thus strong fluctuations with time in the number of resources being used. In this paper, we articulate and establish that an intuitive control strategy, namely pinning control, is effective at harnessing the herding dynamics. In particular, by fixing the choices of resources for a few agents while leaving the majority of the agents free, herding can be eliminated completely. Our investigation is systematic in that we consider random and targeted pinning and a variety of network topologies, and we carry out a comprehensive analysis in the framework of mean-field theory to understand the working of control. The basic philosophy is then that, when a few agents waive their freedom to choose resources by receiving sufficient incentives, the majority of the agents benefit in that they will make fair, efficient, and effective use of the available resources. Our work represents a basic and general framework to address the fundamental issue of fluctuations in complex dynamical systems with significant applications to social, economical, and political systems.

  2. Population Dynamics Among six Major Groups of the Oryza rufipogon Species Complex, Wild Relative of Cultivated Asian Rice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, HyunJung; Jung, Janelle; Singh, Namrata; Greenberg, Anthony; Doyle, Jeff J; Tyagi, Wricha; Chung, Jong-Wook; Kimball, Jennifer; Hamilton, Ruaraidh Sackville; McCouch, Susan R

    2016-12-01

    Understanding population structure of the wild progenitor of Asian cultivated rice (O. sativa), the Oryza rufipogon species complex (ORSC), is of interest to plant breeders and contributes to our understanding of rice domestication. A collection of 286 diverse ORSC accessions was evaluated for nuclear variation using genotyping-by-sequencing (113,739 SNPs) and for chloroplast variation using Sanger sequencing (25 polymorphic sites). Six wild subpopulations were identified, with 25 % of accessions classified as admixed. Three of the wild groups were genetically and geographically closely related to the O. sativa subpopulations, indica, aus and japonica, and carried O. sativa introgressions; the other three wild groups were genetically divergent, had unique chloroplast haplotypes, and were located at the geographical extremes of the species range. The genetic subpopulations were significantly correlated (r 2  = 0.562) with traditional species designations, O. rufipogon (perennial) and O. nivara (annual), differentiated based on morphology and life history. A wild diversity panel of 95 purified (inbred) accessions was developed for future genetic studies. Our results suggest that the cultivated aus subpopulation is most closely related to an annual wild relative, japonica to a perennial wild relative, and indica to an admixed population of diverse annual and perennial wild ancestors. Gene flow between ORSC and O. sativa is common in regions where rice is cultivated, threatening the identity and diversity of wild ORSC populations. The three geographically isolated ORSC populations harbor variation rarely seen in cultivated rice and provide a unique window into the genetic composition of ancient rice subpopulations.

  3. Practical synchronization on complex dynamical networks via optimal pinning control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kezan; Sun, Weigang; Small, Michael; Fu, Xinchu

    2015-07-01

    We consider practical synchronization on complex dynamical networks under linear feedback control designed by optimal control theory. The control goal is to minimize global synchronization error and control strength over a given finite time interval, and synchronization error at terminal time. By utilizing the Pontryagin's minimum principle, and based on a general complex dynamical network, we obtain an optimal system to achieve the control goal. The result is verified by performing some numerical simulations on Star networks, Watts-Strogatz networks, and Barabási-Albert networks. Moreover, by combining optimal control and traditional pinning control, we propose an optimal pinning control strategy which depends on the network's topological structure. Obtained results show that optimal pinning control is very effective for synchronization control in real applications.

  4. Nutrition, fertility and steady-state population dynamics in a pre-industrial community in Penrith, northern England.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scott, S; Duncan, C J

    1999-10-01

    The effect of nutrition on fertility and its contribution thereby to population dynamics are assessed in three social groups (elite, tradesmen and subsistence) in a marginal, pre-industrial population in northern England. This community was particularly susceptible to fluctuations in the price of grains, which formed their basic foodstuff. The subsistence class, who formed the largest part of the population, had low levels of fertility and small family sizes, but women from all social groups had a characteristic and marked subfecundity in the early part of their reproductive lives. The health and nutrition of the mother during pregnancy was the most important factor in determining fertility and neonatal mortality. Inadequate nutrition had many subtle effects on reproduction which interacted to produce a complex web of events. A population boom occurred during the second half of the 18th century; fertility did not change but there was a marked improvement in infant mortality and it is suggested that the steadily improving nutritional standards of the population, particularly during crucial periods in pregnancy (i.e. the last trimester), probably made the biggest contribution to the improvement in infant mortality and so was probably the major factor in triggering the boom.

  5. Drivers of waterfowl population dynamics: from teal to swans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koons, David N.; Gunnarsson, Gunnar; Schmutz, Joel A.; Rotella, Jay J.

    2014-01-01

    Waterfowl are among the best studied and most extensively monitored species in the world. Given their global importance for sport and subsistence hunting, viewing and ecosystem functioning, great effort has been devoted since the middle part of the 20th century to understanding both the environmental and demographic mechanisms that influence waterfowl population and community dynamics. Here we use comparative approaches to summarise and contrast our understanding ofwaterfowl population dynamics across species as short-lived as the teal Anas discors and A.crecca to those such as the swans Cygnus sp. which have long life-spans. Specifically, we focus on population responses to vital rate perturbations across life history strategies, discuss bottom-up and top-down responses of waterfowlpopulations to global change, and summarise our current understanding of density dependence across waterfowl species. We close by identifying research needs and highlight ways to overcome the challenges of sustainably managing waterfowl populations in the 21st century.

  6. Cooperation guided by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in structured populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Kuangyi; Li, Kun; Cong, Rui; Wang, Long

    2017-02-01

    In the framework of the evolutionary game theory, two fundamentally different mechanisms, the imitation process and the aspiration-driven dynamics, can be adopted by players to update their strategies. In the former case, individuals imitate the strategy of a more successful peer, while in the latter case individuals change their strategies based on a comparison of payoffs they collect in the game to their own aspiration levels. Here we explore how cooperation evolves for the coexistence of these two dynamics. Intriguingly, cooperation reaches its lowest level when a certain moderate fraction of individuals pick aspiration-level-driven rule while the others choose pairwise comparison rule. Furthermore, when individuals can adjust their update rules besides their strategies, either imitation dynamics or aspiration-driven dynamics will finally take over the entire population, and the stationary cooperation level is determined by the outcome of competition between these two dynamics. We find that appropriate synergetic effects and moderate aspiration level boost the fixation probability of aspiration-driven dynamics most effectively. Our work may be helpful in understanding the cooperative behavior induced by the coexistence of imitation dynamics and aspiration dynamics in the society.

  7. Dynamic behavior and chaos control in a complex Riccati-type map ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper is devoted to analyze the dynamic behavior of a Riccati- type map with complex variables and complex parameters. Fixed points and their asymptotic stability are studied. Lyapunov exponent is computed to indicate chaos. Bifurcation and chaos are discussed. Chaotic behavior of the map has been controlled by ...

  8. Missing cycles: Effect of climate change on population dynamics

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    population dynamics of the larch budmoth – an insect pest which causes massive defoliation of entire larch forests ... hypothesized that global warming has led to the collapse of the cycles ... When temperatures increase after winter, and the.

  9. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luuk J G W van Wilderen

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio- physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox that describes the finite bleach (orientation effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective excitation (photoselection and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical

  10. Modelling multi-pulse population dynamics from ultrafast spectroscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilderen, Luuk J G W; Lincoln, Craig N; van Thor, Jasper J

    2011-03-21

    Current advanced laser, optics and electronics technology allows sensitive recording of molecular dynamics, from single resonance to multi-colour and multi-pulse experiments. Extracting the occurring (bio-) physical relevant pathways via global analysis of experimental data requires a systematic investigation of connectivity schemes. Here we present a Matlab-based toolbox for this purpose. The toolbox has a graphical user interface which facilitates the application of different reaction models to the data to generate the coupled differential equations. Any time-dependent dataset can be analysed to extract time-independent correlations of the observables by using gradient or direct search methods. Specific capabilities (i.e. chirp and instrument response function) for the analysis of ultrafast pump-probe spectroscopic data are included. The inclusion of an extra pulse that interacts with a transient phase can help to disentangle complex interdependent pathways. The modelling of pathways is therefore extended by new theory (which is included in the toolbox) that describes the finite bleach (orientation) effect of single and multiple intense polarised femtosecond pulses on an ensemble of randomly oriented particles in the presence of population decay. For instance, the generally assumed flat-top multimode beam profile is adapted to a more realistic Gaussian shape, exposing the need for several corrections for accurate anisotropy measurements. In addition, the (selective) excitation (photoselection) and anisotropy of populations that interact with single or multiple intense polarised laser pulses is demonstrated as function of power density and beam profile. Using example values of real world experiments it is calculated to what extent this effectively orients the ensemble of particles. Finally, the implementation includes the interaction with multiple pulses in addition to depth averaging in optically dense samples. In summary, we show that mathematical modelling is

  11. Impact of environmental colored noise in single-species population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spanio, Tommaso; Hidalgo, Jorge; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2017-10-01

    Variability on external conditions has important consequences for the dynamics and the organization of biological systems. In many cases, the characteristic timescale of environmental changes as well as their correlations play a fundamental role in the way living systems adapt and respond to it. A proper mathematical approach to understand population dynamics, thus, requires approaches more refined than, e.g., simple white-noise approximations. To shed further light onto this problem, in this paper we propose a unifying framework based on different analytical and numerical tools available to deal with "colored" environmental noise. In particular, we employ a "unified colored noise approximation" to map the original problem into an effective one with white noise, and then we apply a standard path integral approach to gain analytical understanding. For the sake of specificity, we present our approach using as a guideline a variation of the contact process—which can also be seen as a birth-death process of the Malthus-Verhulst class—where the propagation or birth rate varies stochastically in time. Our approach allows us to tackle in a systematic manner some of the relevant questions concerning population dynamics under environmental variability, such as determining the stationary population density, establishing the conditions under which a population may become extinct, and estimating extinction times. We focus on the emerging phase diagram and its possible phase transitions, underlying how these are affected by the presence of environmental noise time-correlations.

  12. Population dynamics of Aphis gossypii Glover and in sole and intercropping systems of cotton and cowpea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandes, Francisco S; Godoy, Wesley A C; Ramalho, Francisco S; Garcia, Adriano G; Santos, Bárbara D B; Malaquias, José B

    2018-01-01

    Population dynamics of aphids have been studied in sole and intercropping systems. These studies have required the use of more precise analytical tools in order to better understand patterns in quantitative data. Mathematical models are among the most important tools to explain the dynamics of insect populations. This study investigated the population dynamics of aphids Aphis gossypii and Aphis craccivora over time, using mathematical models composed of a set of differential equations as a helpful analytical tool to understand the population dynamics of aphids in arrangements of cotton and cowpea. The treatments were sole cotton, sole cowpea, and three arrangements of cotton intercropped with cowpea (t1, t2 and t3). The plants were infested with two aphid species and were evaluated at 7, 14, 28, 35, 42, and 49 days after the infestations. Mathematical models were used to fit the population dynamics of two aphid species. There were good fits for aphid dynamics by mathematical model over time. The highest population peak of both species A. gossypii and A. craccivora was found in the sole crops, and the lowest population peak was found in crop system t2. These results are important for integrated management programs of aphids in cotton and cowpea.

  13. Macroscopic description of complex adaptive networks coevolving with dynamic node states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiedermann, Marc; Donges, Jonathan F.; Heitzig, Jobst; Lucht, Wolfgang; Kurths, Jürgen

    2015-05-01

    In many real-world complex systems, the time evolution of the network's structure and the dynamic state of its nodes are closely entangled. Here we study opinion formation and imitation on an adaptive complex network which is dependent on the individual dynamic state of each node and vice versa to model the coevolution of renewable resources with the dynamics of harvesting agents on a social network. The adaptive voter model is coupled to a set of identical logistic growth models and we mainly find that, in such systems, the rate of interactions between nodes as well as the adaptive rewiring probability are crucial parameters for controlling the sustainability of the system's equilibrium state. We derive a macroscopic description of the system in terms of ordinary differential equations which provides a general framework to model and quantify the influence of single node dynamics on the macroscopic state of the network. The thus obtained framework is applicable to many fields of study, such as epidemic spreading, opinion formation, or socioecological modeling.

  14. Estimating age composition in Alpine native populations of Austropotamobius pallipes complex

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniela Ghia

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Assessing the population structure and understanding growth patterns is crucial to manage freshwater resources and to solve fundamental questions concerning endangered species conservation. Austropotamobius pallipes (Lereboullet, 1858 species complex has been declining on a widespread basis in Europe, including Italy, but detailed data on population structure and growth are lacking. In four mountain streams populated by the species, water temperature data were collected by data-loggers. In July 2012, a total of 746 crayfish were collected at night and their length was measured. Females and males size distributions were analysed separately for each stream using Bhattacharya’s Method. Age was assigned to each length class. The mean values of the age classes were used to evaluate the growth rate of Von Bertalanffy, by the seasonalized equation. Up to six age classes were identified in two populations. Results show that three out of four populations are well-structured, and they confirm that A. pallipes complex is a K-selected species. We stress the need for long-term monitoring and the importance of obtained results in development of conservation plans of endangered crayfish.

  15. Synchronization criterion for Lur'e type complex dynamical networks with time-varying delay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ji, D.H.; Park, Ju H.; Yoo, W.J.; Won, S.C.; Lee, S.M.

    2010-01-01

    In this Letter, the synchronization problem for a class of complex dynamical networks in which every identical node is a Lur'e system with time-varying delay is considered. A delay-dependent synchronization criterion is derived for the synchronization of complex dynamical network that represented by Lur'e system with sector restricted nonlinearities. The derived criterion is a sufficient condition for absolute stability of error dynamics between the each nodes and the isolated node. Using a convex representation of the nonlinearity for error dynamics, the stability condition based on the discretized Lyapunov-Krasovskii functional is obtained via LMI formulation. The proposed delay-dependent synchronization criterion is less conservative than the existing ones. The effectiveness of our work is verified through numerical examples.

  16. Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-06-01

    1973. Ecology of Vibrio parahemolyticus in mixed-template amplifications: formation, consequences and elimination by Chesapeake Bay. J. Bacteriol. 113...Science 1930 and Engineering DOCTORAL DISSERTATION Emergent Patterns of Diversity and Dynamics in Natural Populations of Planktonic Vibrio Bacteria by...DYNAMICS IN NATURAL POPULATIONS OF PLANKTONIC VIBRIO BACTERIA by Janelle Ren6e Thompson B.S. Biological Sciences, Stanford University 1998 M.S

  17. PREFACE: Complex dynamics of fluids in disordered and crowded environments Complex dynamics of fluids in disordered and crowded environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coslovich, Daniele; Kahl, Gerhard; Krakoviack, Vincent

    2011-06-01

    Over the past two decades, the dynamics of fluids under nanoscale confinement has attracted much attention. Motivation for this rapidly increasing interest is based on both practical and fundamental reasons. On the practical and rather applied side, problems in a wide range of scientific topics, such as polymer and colloidal sciences, rheology, geology, or biophysics, benefit from a profound understanding of the dynamical behaviour of confined fluids. Further, effects similar to those observed in confinement are expected in fluids whose constituents have strong size or mass asymmetry, and in biological systems where crowding and obstruction phenomena in the cytosol are responsible for clear separations of time scales for macromolecular transport in the cell. In fundamental research, on the other hand, the interest focuses on the complex interplay between confinement and structural relaxation, which is responsible for the emergence of new phenomena in the dynamics of the system: in confinement, geometric constraints associated with the pore shape are imposed to the adsorbed fluids and an additional characteristic length scale, i.e. the pore size, comes into play. For many years, the topic has been mostly experimentally driven. Indeed, a broad spectrum of systems has been investigated by sophisticated experimental techniques, while theoretical and simulation studies were rather scarce due to conceptual and computational issues. In the past few years, however, theory and simulations could largely catch up with experiments. On one side, new theories have been put forward that duly take into account the porosity, the connectivity, and the randomness of the confinement. On the other side, the ever increasing available computational power now allows investigations that were far out of reach a few years ago. Nowadays, instead of isolated state points, systematic investigations on the dynamics of confined fluids, covering a wide range of system parameters, can be realized

  18. Network dynamics and its relationships to topology and coupling structure in excitable complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Li-Sheng; Mi Yuan-Yuan; Gu Wei-Feng; Hu Gang

    2014-01-01

    All dynamic complex networks have two important aspects, pattern dynamics and network topology. Discovering different types of pattern dynamics and exploring how these dynamics depend on network topologies are tasks of both great theoretical importance and broad practical significance. In this paper we study the oscillatory behaviors of excitable complex networks (ECNs) and find some interesting dynamic behaviors of ECNs in oscillatory probability, the multiplicity of oscillatory attractors, period distribution, and different types of oscillatory patterns (e.g., periodic, quasiperiodic, and chaotic). In these aspects, we further explore strikingly sharp differences among network dynamics induced by different topologies (random or scale-free topologies) and different interaction structures (symmetric or asymmetric couplings). The mechanisms behind these differences are explained physically. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  19. Early signatures of regime shifts in complex dynamical systems

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2015-02-05

    Feb 5, 2015 ... journal of. February 2015 ... populations, financial markets, complex diseases and gene circuits. ... A recent exhaustive analysis of recorded ecosystem shifts points to an approach- .... The quantitative estimation of these.

  20. Exponential Synchronization of Uncertain Complex Dynamical Networks with Delay Coupling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Lifu; Kong Zhi; Jing Yuanwei

    2010-01-01

    This paper studies the global exponential synchronization of uncertain complex delayed dynamical networks. The network model considered is general dynamical delay networks with unknown network structure and unknown coupling functions but bounded. Novel delay-dependent linear controllers are designed via the Lyapunov stability theory. Especially, it is shown that the controlled networks are globally exponentially synchronized with a given convergence rate. An example of typical dynamical network of this class, having the Lorenz system at each node, has been used to demonstrate and verify the novel design proposed. And, the numerical simulation results show the effectiveness of proposed synchronization approaches. (general)

  1. Dynamics of complexation of a charged dendrimer by linear polyelectrolyte: Computer modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lyulin, S.V.; Darinskii, A.A.; Lyulin, A.V.

    2007-01-01

    Brownian-dynamics simulations have been performed for complexes formed by a charged dendrimer and a long oppositely charged linear polyelectrolyte when overcharging phenomenon is always observed. After a complex formation the orientational mobility of the individual dendrimer bonds, the fluctuations

  2. Demography of the Early Neolithic Population in Central Balkans: Population Dynamics Reconstruction Using Summed Radiocarbon Probability Distributions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marko Porčić

    Full Text Available The Central Balkans region is of great importance for understanding the spread of the Neolithic in Europe but the Early Neolithic population dynamics of the region is unknown. In this study we apply the method of summed calibrated probability distributions to a set of published radiocarbon dates from the Republic of Serbia in order to reconstruct population dynamics in the Early Neolithic in this part of the Central Balkans. The results indicate that there was a significant population growth after ~6200 calBC, when the Neolithic was introduced into the region, followed by a bust at the end of the Early Neolithic phase (~5400 calBC. These results are broadly consistent with the predictions of the Neolithic Demographic Transition theory and the patterns of population booms and busts detected in other regions of Europe. These results suggest that the cultural process that underlies the patterns observed in Central and Western Europe was also in operation in the Central Balkan Neolithic and that the population increase component of this process can be considered as an important factor for the spread of the Neolithic as envisioned in the demic diffusion hypothesis.

  3. Structure identification and adaptive synchronization of uncertain general complex dynamical networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Yuhua; Zhou Wuneng; Fang Jian'an; Lu Hongqian

    2009-01-01

    This Letter proposes an approach to identify the topological structure and unknown parameters for uncertain general complex networks simultaneously. By designing effective adaptive controllers, we achieve synchronization between two complex networks. The unknown network topological structure and system parameters of uncertain general complex dynamical networks are identified simultaneously in the process of synchronization. Several useful criteria for synchronization are given. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the application of the theoretical results.

  4. Structure identification and adaptive synchronization of uncertain general complex dynamical networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Yuhua, E-mail: yuhuaxu2004@163.co [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China) and Department of Maths, Yunyang Teacher' s College, Hubei 442000 (China); Zhou Wuneng, E-mail: wnzhou@163.co [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China); Fang Jian' an [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China); Lu Hongqian [Shandong Institute of Light Industry, Shandong Jinan 250353 (China)

    2009-12-28

    This Letter proposes an approach to identify the topological structure and unknown parameters for uncertain general complex networks simultaneously. By designing effective adaptive controllers, we achieve synchronization between two complex networks. The unknown network topological structure and system parameters of uncertain general complex dynamical networks are identified simultaneously in the process of synchronization. Several useful criteria for synchronization are given. Finally, an illustrative example is presented to demonstrate the application of the theoretical results.

  5. Optimal dimensionality reduction of complex dynamics: the chess game as diffusion on a free-energy landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krivov, Sergei V

    2011-07-01

    Dimensionality reduction is ubiquitous in the analysis of complex dynamics. The conventional dimensionality reduction techniques, however, focus on reproducing the underlying configuration space, rather than the dynamics itself. The constructed low-dimensional space does not provide a complete and accurate description of the dynamics. Here I describe how to perform dimensionality reduction while preserving the essential properties of the dynamics. The approach is illustrated by analyzing the chess game--the archetype of complex dynamics. A variable that provides complete and accurate description of chess dynamics is constructed. The winning probability is predicted by describing the game as a random walk on the free-energy landscape associated with the variable. The approach suggests a possible way of obtaining a simple yet accurate description of many important complex phenomena. The analysis of the chess game shows that the approach can quantitatively describe the dynamics of processes where human decision-making plays a central role, e.g., financial and social dynamics.

  6. Complex Dynamical Network Control for Trajectory Tracking Using Delayed Recurrent Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose P. Perez

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the problem of trajectory tracking is studied. Based on the V-stability and Lyapunov theory, a control law that achieves the global asymptotic stability of the tracking error between a delayed recurrent neural network and a complex dynamical network is obtained. To illustrate the analytic results, we present a tracking simulation of a dynamical network with each node being just one Lorenz’s dynamical system and three identical Chen’s dynamical systems.

  7. Population ecology, nonlinear dynamics, and social evolution. I. Associations among nonrelatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avilés, Leticia; Abbot, Patrick; Cutter, Asher D

    2002-02-01

    Using an individual-based and genetically explicit simulation model, we explore the evolution of sociality within a population-ecology and nonlinear-dynamics framework. Assuming that individual fitness is a unimodal function of group size and that cooperation may carry a relative fitness cost, we consider the evolution of one-generation breeding associations among nonrelatives. We explore how parameters such as the intrinsic rate of growth and group and global carrying capacities may influence social evolution and how social evolution may, in turn, influence and be influenced by emerging group-level and population-wide dynamics. We find that group living and cooperation evolve under a wide range of parameter values, even when cooperation is costly and the interactions can be defined as altruistic. Greater levels of cooperation, however, did evolve when cooperation carried a low or no relative fitness cost. Larger group carrying capacities allowed the evolution of larger groups but also resulted in lower cooperative tendencies. When the intrinsic rate of growth was not too small and control of the global population size was density dependent, the evolution of large cooperative tendencies resulted in dynamically unstable groups and populations. These results are consistent with the existence and typical group sizes of organisms ranging from the pleometrotic ants to the colonial birds and the global population outbreaks and crashes characteristic of organisms such as the migratory locusts and the tree-killing bark beetles.

  8. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  9. Climate Effects and Feedback Structure Determining Weed Population Dynamics in a Long-Term Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Mauricio; Navarrete, Luis; González-Andujar, José Luis

    2012-01-01

    Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years) on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors). Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements. PMID:22272362

  10. Climate effects and feedback structure determining weed population dynamics in a long-term experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mauricio Lima

    Full Text Available Pest control is one of the areas in which population dynamic theory has been successfully applied to solve practical problems. However, the links between population dynamic theory and model construction have been less emphasized in the management and control of weed populations. Most management models of weed population dynamics have emphasized the role of the endogenous process, but the role of exogenous variables such as climate have been ignored in the study of weed populations and their management. Here, we use long-term data (22 years on two annual weed species from a locality in Central Spain to determine the importance of endogenous and exogenous processes (local and large-scale climate factors. Our modeling study determined two different feedback structures and climate effects in the two weed species analyzed. While Descurainia sophia exhibited a second-order feedback and low climate influence, Veronica hederifolia was characterized by a first-order feedback structure and important effects from temperature and rainfall. Our results strongly suggest the importance of theoretical population dynamics in understanding plant population systems. Moreover, the use of this approach, discerning between the effect of exogenous and endogenous factors, can be fundamental to applying weed management practices in agricultural systems and to controlling invasive weedy species. This is a radical change from most approaches currently used to guide weed and invasive weedy species managements.

  11. Modelling of population dynamics of red king crab using Bayesian approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bakanev Sergey ...

    2012-10-01

    Modeling population dynamics based on the Bayesian approach enables to successfully resolve the above issues. The integration of the data from various studies into a unified model based on Bayesian parameter estimation method provides a much more detailed description of the processes occurring in the population.

  12. Elevated nonlinearity as an indicator of shifts in the dynamics of populations under stress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakos, Vasilis; Glaser, Sarah M; Hsieh, Chih-Hao; Sugihara, George

    2017-03-01

    Populations occasionally experience abrupt changes, such as local extinctions, strong declines in abundance or transitions from stable dynamics to strongly irregular fluctuations. Although most of these changes have important ecological and at times economic implications, they remain notoriously difficult to detect in advance. Here, we study changes in the stability of populations under stress across a variety of transitions. Using a Ricker-type model, we simulate shifts from stable point equilibrium dynamics to cyclic and irregular boom-bust oscillations as well as abrupt shifts between alternative attractors. Our aim is to infer the loss of population stability before such shifts based on changes in nonlinearity of population dynamics. We measure nonlinearity by comparing forecast performance between linear and nonlinear models fitted on reconstructed attractors directly from observed time series. We compare nonlinearity to other suggested leading indicators of instability (variance and autocorrelation). We find that nonlinearity and variance increase in a similar way prior to the shifts. By contrast, autocorrelation is strongly affected by oscillations. Finally, we test these theoretical patterns in datasets of fisheries populations. Our results suggest that elevated nonlinearity could be used as an additional indicator to infer changes in the dynamics of populations under stress. © 2017 The Author(s).

  13. System crash as dynamics of complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yi; Xiao, Gaoxi; Zhou, Jie; Wang, Yubo; Wang, Zhen; Kurths, Jürgen; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2016-10-18

    Complex systems, from animal herds to human nations, sometimes crash drastically. Although the growth and evolution of systems have been extensively studied, our understanding of how systems crash is still limited. It remains rather puzzling why some systems, appearing to be doomed to fail, manage to survive for a long time whereas some other systems, which seem to be too big or too strong to fail, crash rapidly. In this contribution, we propose a network-based system dynamics model, where individual actions based on the local information accessible in their respective system structures may lead to the "peculiar" dynamics of system crash mentioned above. Extensive simulations are carried out on synthetic and real-life networks, which further reveal the interesting system evolution leading to the final crash. Applications and possible extensions of the proposed model are discussed.

  14. Topology Detection for Output-Coupling Weighted Complex Dynamical Networks with Coupling and Transmission Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinwei Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Topology detection for output-coupling weighted complex dynamical networks with two types of time delays is investigated in this paper. Different from existing literatures, coupling delay and transmission delay are simultaneously taken into account in the output-coupling network. Based on the idea of the state observer, we build the drive-response system and apply LaSalle’s invariance principle to the error dynamical system of the drive-response system. Several convergent criteria are deduced in the form of algebraic inequalities. Some numerical simulations for the complex dynamical network, with node dynamics being chaotic, are given to verify the effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

  15. Collective dynamics of populations of weakly correlated filaments of incoherent white light

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Jinxin; Sheridan, John T; Saravanamuttu, Kalaichelvi

    2013-01-01

    We examined the dynamics of two populations of self-trapped filaments of spatially and temporally incoherent white light. The populations consisted of (i) independent filaments generated through self-trapping of incandescent speckles, and (ii) co-dependent filaments created through modulation instability of a broad incandescent beam. Both filament populations were positionally stable in conditions where individual pairs of self-trapped beams interact strongly. Both also acquired significantly broad intensity distributions, which were independent of their parent optical fields; a small but persistent number of high-intensity filaments was identified in both cases. These studies provide accessible routes to weakly correlated ensembles, insight into their collective behaviour such as self-stabilization and self-selected intensity distributions, and reveal intriguing similarities between the dynamics of two populations of different origins. (paper)

  16. Protein complexes and cholesterol in the control of late endosomal dynamicsCholesterol and multi-protein complexes in the control of late endosomal dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kant, Rik Henricus Nicolaas van der

    2013-01-01

    Late endosomal transport is disrupted in several diseases such as Niemann-Pick type C, ARC syndrome and Alzheimer’s disease. This thesis describes the regulation of late endosomal dynamics by cholesterol and multi-protein complexes. We find that cholesterol acts as a cellular tomtom that steers the

  17. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B.; Rusakov, Alexey V.

    2011-01-01

    Highlights: → We model community dynamics in stateless societies. → Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. → Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. → Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  18. Chaos and order in stateless societies: Intercommunity exchange as a factor impacting the population dynamical patterns

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Medvinsky, Alexander B., E-mail: medvinsky@iteb.ru [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation); Rusakov, Alexey V. [Institute of Theoretical and Experimental Biophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Pushchino 142290, Moscow Region (Russian Federation)

    2011-06-15

    Highlights: > We model community dynamics in stateless societies. > Intercommunity barter is shown to be a factor impacting the societies dynamics. > Increase in the human population growth rate can lead to appearance of chaos. > Secular and millennial cycles are found to arise as a result of the barter. - Abstract: The once abstract notions of dynamical chaos now appear naturally in various systems [Kaplan D, Glass L. Understanding nonlinear dynamics. New York: Springer; 1995]. As a result, future trajectories of the systems may be difficult to predict. In this paper, we demonstrate the appearance of chaotic dynamics in model human communities, which consist of producers of agricultural product and producers of agricultural equipment. In the case of a solitary community, the horizon of predictability of the human population dynamics is shown to be dependent on both intrinsic instability of the dynamics and the chaotic attractor sizes. Since a separate community is usually a part of a larger commonality, we study the dynamics of social systems consisting of two interacting communities. We show that intercommunity barter can lead to stabilization of the dynamics in one of the communities, which implies persistence of stable equilibrium under changes of the maximum value of the human population growth rate. However, in the neighboring community, the equilibrium turns into a stable limit cycle as the maximum value of the human population growth rate increases. Following an increase in the maximum value of the human population growth rate leads to period-doubling bifurcations resulting in chaotic dynamics. The horizon of predictability of the chaotic oscillations is found to be limited by 5 years. We demonstrate that the intercommunity interaction can lead to the appearance of long-period harmonics in the chaotic time series. The period of the harmonics is of order 100 and 1000 years. Hence the long-period changes in the population size may be considered as an

  19. Metastable states and quasicycles in a stochastic Wilson-Cowan model of neuronal population dynamics

    KAUST Repository

    Bressloff, Paul C.

    2010-11-03

    We analyze a stochastic model of neuronal population dynamics with intrinsic noise. In the thermodynamic limit N→∞, where N determines the size of each population, the dynamics is described by deterministic Wilson-Cowan equations. On the other hand, for finite N the dynamics is described by a master equation that determines the probability of spiking activity within each population. We first consider a single excitatory population that exhibits bistability in the deterministic limit. The steady-state probability distribution of the stochastic network has maxima at points corresponding to the stable fixed points of the deterministic network; the relative weighting of the two maxima depends on the system size. For large but finite N, we calculate the exponentially small rate of noise-induced transitions between the resulting metastable states using a Wentzel-Kramers- Brillouin (WKB) approximation and matched asymptotic expansions. We then consider a two-population excitatory or inhibitory network that supports limit cycle oscillations. Using a diffusion approximation, we reduce the dynamics to a neural Langevin equation, and show how the intrinsic noise amplifies subthreshold oscillations (quasicycles). © 2010 The American Physical Society.

  20. Population dynamics in the high Arctic: Climate variations in time and space

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hendrichsen, Ditte Katrine

    Climatic factors profoundly influence the population dynamics, species interactions and demography of Arctic species. Analyses of the spatio-temporal dynamics within and across species are therefore necessary to understand and predict the responses of Arctic ecosystems to climatic variability...

  1. Seasonal population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii (Diplopoda, Julidae in the Dnieper river arena

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. G. Gudym

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available We have researched the population dynamics of Brachyiulus jawlowskii Lohmander, 1928 in the arena of the Dnepr river (within the "Dnieper-Orilsky” Nature Reserve and also present a full picture of the habitat distribution of Julidae within the researched area. The tested models were basic types of arena biogeocenosis: sand steppe, black maple forests, artificial pine plantations, deciduous forest, meadow and swamp. Variation in population density of B. jawlowskii is determined by biotopical features. The swamp and meadow habitats can be characterized by the highest level of population dynamics. B. jawlowskii plays the greatest role in the herpetobiont grouping in swamp and oak forest habitats (6.7% and 4.6% respectively. In other types of habitat this species composes 0.1–3.5% of the total abundance of this group. The highest abundance dynamic was reached by the Julidae cenopopulations which inhabit the swamp, oak forest and meadow habitats. B. jawlowskii occupies a relatively significant share in the herpetobiont communities of these habitats. Thus, the indicators of absolute number of this species and its relative participation in the herpertobiont grouping indicate the preference of this species for marsh, oak forest and meadow habitats. These habitats can be characterized by an excessive or moderate level of edaphotopic humidification. The ecosystem of the steppe zone of Ukraine is subject to significant human impact. In nature reserves, this effect is minimized, which permits research to be conducted on regimes of natural population dynamics. We established that B. jawlowskii inhabits all habitats investigated within the arena zone of the Dnepr river. This indicates that this is an environmentally flexible Julidae species. The population dynamics of B. jawlowskii can be characterized by three distinct periods: spring-summer, summer and autumn. Each of these periods is characterized by a distinct population dynamic, but throughout the

  2. Dynamic analysis of a parasite population model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibona, G. J.; Condat, C. A.

    2002-03-01

    We study the dynamics of a model that describes the competitive interaction between an invading species (a parasite) and its antibodies in an living being. This model was recently used to examine the dynamical competition between Tripanosoma cruzi and its antibodies during the acute phase of Chagas' disease. Depending on the antibody properties, the model yields three types of outcomes, corresponding, respectively, to healing, chronic disease, and host death. Here, we study the dynamics of the parasite-antibody interaction with the help of simulations, obtaining phase trajectories and phase diagrams for the system. We show that, under certain conditions, the size of the parasite inoculation can be crucial for the infection outcome and that a retardation in the stimulated production of an antibody species may result in the parasite gaining a definitive advantage. We also find a criterion for the relative sizes of the parameters that are required if parasite-generated decoys are indeed to help the invasion. Decoys may also induce a qualitatively different outcome: a limit cycle for the antibody-parasite population phase trajectories.

  3. COMPLEX EVALUATION OF THE NUMBER DYNAMICS OF COLONIAL WATERBIRD COMMUNITIES (THE CASE OF SOME ISLANDS OF SIVASH REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matsyura A.V.

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The problem of the mathematical analysis of the number dynamics of the nesting waterbirds for the islands of the south of Ukraine is examined. The algorithm of the evaluation of changes in the number of island birds is proposed. Data of the long-term monitoring of the number of birds were analyzed according to this algorithm. The necessity of the implementation of the statistical indices together with the graphic representation of island birds’ turnover is proved. The trends of population dynamics are determined for the key species. The discussed procedure of the complex evaluation is proposed for the management planning of the island bird species and their habitats. The performed analysis of the number dynamics of the key-stone breeding island birds showed that, with the exception of little tern, the population status and the prognosis of number are sufficiently favorable. From the data of long-term monitoring we came up with the conclusion about the existence of island habitats with carrying capacity to maintain the additional number of breeding birds. In the case of unfavorable conditions like strengthening of anthropogenic press, concurrent interrelations, deficiency of feed resources or drastic reduction of breeding biotopes, the birds due to turnover are capable to successfully react even without reducing their number and breeding success. The extinction rate of the breeding bird species from the island sites directly correlates with the number of breeding species. For the species with equal abundance, the extinction probability is higher for birds, whose numbers are unstable and characterized by significant fluctuations. This testifies the urgency of the constant monitoring and analysis of the number dynamics of breeding bird species in region. The suggested procedure of analysis is recommended for drawing up of management plans and performing of prognoses of number of breeding island bird species. More detail analysis with use of

  4. Game theory and extremal optimization for community detection in complex dynamic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lung, Rodica Ioana; Chira, Camelia; Andreica, Anca

    2014-01-01

    The detection of evolving communities in dynamic complex networks is a challenging problem that recently received attention from the research community. Dynamics clearly add another complexity dimension to the difficult task of community detection. Methods should be able to detect changes in the network structure and produce a set of community structures corresponding to different timestamps and reflecting the evolution in time of network data. We propose a novel approach based on game theory elements and extremal optimization to address dynamic communities detection. Thus, the problem is formulated as a mathematical game in which nodes take the role of players that seek to choose a community that maximizes their profit viewed as a fitness function. Numerical results obtained for both synthetic and real-world networks illustrate the competitive performance of this game theoretical approach.

  5. Complex and adaptive dynamical systems a primer

    CERN Document Server

    Gros, Claudius

    2015-01-01

    This primer offers readers an introduction to the central concepts that form our modern understanding of complex and emergent behavior, together with detailed coverage of accompanying mathematical methods. All calculations are presented step by step and are easy to follow. This new fourth edition has been fully reorganized and includes new chapters, figures and exercises. The core aspects of modern complex system sciences are presented in the first chapters, covering network theory, dynamical systems, bifurcation and catastrophe theory, chaos and adaptive processes, together with the principle of self-organization in reaction-diffusion systems and social animals. Modern information theoretical principles are treated in further chapters, together with the concept of self-organized criticality, gene regulation networks, hypercycles and coevolutionary avalanches, synchronization phenomena, absorbing phase transitions and the cognitive system approach to the brain. Technical course prerequisites are the standard ...

  6. Transition Manifolds of Complex Metastable Systems: Theory and Data-Driven Computation of Effective Dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bittracher, Andreas; Koltai, Péter; Klus, Stefan; Banisch, Ralf; Dellnitz, Michael; Schütte, Christof

    2018-01-01

    We consider complex dynamical systems showing metastable behavior, but no local separation of fast and slow time scales. The article raises the question of whether such systems exhibit a low-dimensional manifold supporting its effective dynamics. For answering this question, we aim at finding nonlinear coordinates, called reaction coordinates, such that the projection of the dynamics onto these coordinates preserves the dominant time scales of the dynamics. We show that, based on a specific reducibility property, the existence of good low-dimensional reaction coordinates preserving the dominant time scales is guaranteed. Based on this theoretical framework, we develop and test a novel numerical approach for computing good reaction coordinates. The proposed algorithmic approach is fully local and thus not prone to the curse of dimension with respect to the state space of the dynamics. Hence, it is a promising method for data-based model reduction of complex dynamical systems such as molecular dynamics.

  7. Noise-induced effects in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spagnolo, Bernardo; Cirone, Markus; La Barbera, Antonino; de Pasquale, Ferdinando

    2002-03-01

    We investigate the role of noise in the nonlinear relaxation of two ecosystems described by generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise. Specifically we study two cases: (i) an ecosystem with two interacting species in the presence of periodic driving; (ii) an ecosystem with a great number of interacting species with random interaction matrix. We analyse the interplay between noise and periodic modulation for case (i) and the role of the noise in the transient dynamics of the ecosystem in the presence of an absorbing barrier in case (ii). We find that the presence of noise is responsible for the generation of temporal oscillations and for the appearance of spatial patterns in the first case. In the other case we obtain the asymptotic behaviour of the time average of the ith population and discuss the effect of the noise on the probability distributions of the population and of the local field.

  8. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations

    OpenAIRE

    Hirunsalee, Anan; Barker, K. R.; Beute, M. K.

    1995-01-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduc...

  9. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  10. Chaperone-client complexes: A dynamic liaison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hiller, Sebastian; Burmann, Björn M.

    2018-04-01

    Living cells contain molecular chaperones that are organized in intricate networks to surveil protein homeostasis by avoiding polypeptide misfolding, aggregation, and the generation of toxic species. In addition, cellular chaperones also fulfill a multitude of alternative functionalities: transport of clients towards a target location, help them fold, unfold misfolded species, resolve aggregates, or deliver clients towards proteolysis machineries. Until recently, the only available source of atomic resolution information for virtually all chaperones were crystal structures of their client-free, apo-forms. These structures were unable to explain details of the functional mechanisms underlying chaperone-client interactions. The difficulties to crystallize chaperones in complexes with clients arise from their highly dynamic nature, making solution NMR spectroscopy the method of choice for their study. With the advent of advanced solution NMR techniques, in the past few years a substantial number of structural and functional studies on chaperone-client complexes have been resolved, allowing unique insight into the chaperone-client interaction. This review summarizes the recent insights provided by advanced high-resolution NMR-spectroscopy to understand chaperone-client interaction mechanisms at the atomic scale.

  11. Logic-based hierarchies for modeling behavior of complex dynamic systems with applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Y.S.; Modarres, M.

    2000-01-01

    Most complex systems are best represented in the form of a hierarchy. The Goal Tree Success Tree and Master Logic Diagram (GTST-MLD) are proven powerful hierarchic methods to represent complex snap-shot of plant knowledge. To represent dynamic behaviors of complex systems, fuzzy logic is applied to replace binary logic to extend the power of GTST-MLD. Such a fuzzy-logic-based hierarchy is called Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD). This chapter discusses comparison of the use of GTST-DMLD when applied as a modeling tool for systems whose relationships are modeled by either physical, binary logical or fuzzy logical relationships. This is shown by applying GTST-DMLD to the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) phenomenon at pressurized water reactors which is an important safety issue being addressed by the nuclear industry. (orig.)

  12. Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

    2009-05-01

    We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1dynamics, presenting some important results.

  13. Border Collision Bifurcations in a Generalized Model of Population Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lilia M. Ladino

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the dynamics of a generalized discrete time population model of a two-stage species with recruitment and capture. This generalization, which is inspired by other approaches and real data that one can find in literature, consists in considering no restriction for the value of the two key parameters appearing in the model, that is, the natural death rate and the mortality rate due to fishing activity. In the more general case the feasibility of the system has been preserved by posing opportune formulas for the piecewise map defining the model. The resulting two-dimensional nonlinear map is not smooth, though continuous, as its definition changes as any border is crossed in the phase plane. Hence, techniques from the mathematical theory of piecewise smooth dynamical systems must be applied to show that, due to the existence of borders, abrupt changes in the dynamic behavior of population sizes and multistability emerge. The main novelty of the present contribution with respect to the previous ones is that, while using real data, richer dynamics are produced, such as fluctuations and multistability. Such new evidences are of great interest in biology since new strategies to preserve the survival of the species can be suggested.

  14. The Driving Forces of Cultural Complexity : Neanderthals, Modern Humans, and the Question of Population Size.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Laurel; Wakano, Joe Yuichiro; Feldman, Marcus W; Aoki, Kenichi

    2017-03-01

    The forces driving cultural accumulation in human populations, both modern and ancient, are hotly debated. Did genetic, demographic, or cognitive features of behaviorally modern humans (as opposed to, say, early modern humans or Neanderthals) allow culture to accumulate to its current, unprecedented levels of complexity? Theoretical explanations for patterns of accumulation often invoke demographic factors such as population size or density, whereas statistical analyses of variation in cultural complexity often point to the importance of environmental factors such as food stability, in determining cultural complexity. Here we use both an analytical model and an agent-based simulation model to show that a full understanding of the emergence of behavioral modernity, and the cultural evolution that has followed, depends on understanding and untangling the complex relationships among culture, genetically determined cognitive ability, and demographic history. For example, we show that a small but growing population could have a different number of cultural traits from a shrinking population with the same absolute number of individuals in some circumstances.

  15. Dynamic assessments of population exposure to urban greenspace using multi-source big data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yimeng; Huang, Bo; Cai, Jixuan; Chen, Bin

    2018-09-01

    A growing body of evidence has proven that urban greenspace is beneficial to improve people's physical and mental health. However, knowledge of population exposure to urban greenspace across different spatiotemporal scales remains unclear. Moreover, the majority of existing environmental assessments are unable to quantify how residents enjoy their ambient greenspace during their daily life. To deal with this challenge, we proposed a dynamic method to assess urban greenspace exposure with the integration of mobile-phone locating-request (MPL) data and high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. This method was further applied to 30 major cities in China by assessing cities' dynamic greenspace exposure levels based on residents' surrounding areas with different buffer scales (0.5km, 1km, and 1.5km). Results showed that regarding residents' 0.5-km surrounding environment, Wenzhou and Hangzhou were found to be with the greenest exposure experience, whereas Zhengzhou and Tangshan were the least ones. The obvious diurnal and daily variations of population exposure to their surrounding greenspace were also identified to be highly correlated with the distribution pattern of urban greenspace and the dynamics of human mobility. Compared with two common measurements of urban greenspace (green coverage rate and green area per capita), the developed method integrated the dynamics of population distribution and geographic locations of urban greenspace into the exposure assessment, thereby presenting a more reasonable way to assess population exposure to urban greenspace. Additionally, this dynamic framework could hold potential utilities in supporting urban planning studies and environmental health studies and advancing our understanding of the magnitude of population exposure to greenspace at different spatiotemporal scales. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  16. Changes in Population Dynamics in Mutualistic versus Pathogenic Viruses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marilyn J. Roossinck

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Although generally regarded as pathogens, viruses can also be mutualists. A number of examples of extreme mutualism (i.e., symbiogenesis have been well studied. Other examples of mutualism are less common, but this is likely because viruses have rarely been thought of as having any beneficial effects on their hosts. The effect of mutualism on the population dynamics of viruses is a topic that has not been addressed experimentally. However, the potential for understanding mutualism and how a virus might become a mutualist may be elucidated by understanding these dynamics.

  17. Factors affecting population dynamics of maternally transmitted endosymbionts in Bemisia tabaci.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huipeng Pan

    Full Text Available While every individual of Bemisia tabaci (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae harbors the primary symbiont (P-symbiont Portiera, the infection frequencies of the six secondary symbionts (S-symbionts including Hamiltonella, Arsenophonus, Cardinium, Wolbachia, Rickettsia and Fritschea vary greatly among different populations. To characterize the factors influencing the infection dynamics of the six S-symbionts in B. tabaci, gene-specific PCR were conducted to screen for the presence of the P-symbiont Portiera and the six S-symbionts in 61 (17 B and 44 Q biotypes field populations collected from different plant species and locations in China. All individuals of the 61 populations hosted the P-symbiont Portiera, but none of them harbored Arsenophonus and Fritschea. The presence and infection rates of Hamiltonella, Cardinium, Rickettsia, Wolbachia and their co-infections Rickettsia + Hamiltonella (RH, Rickettsia + Cardinium (RC, Hamiltonella + Cardinium (HC and Rickettsia + Hamiltonella + Cardinium (RHC varied significantly among the 61 field populations; and the observed variations can be explained by biotypes, sexes, host plants and geographical locations of these field populations. Taken together, at least three factors including biotype, host plant and geographical location affect the infection dynamics of S-symbionts in B. tabaci.

  18. Structured population dynamics: continuous size and discontinuous stage structures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buffoni, Giuseppe; Pasquali, Sara

    2007-04-01

    A nonlinear stochastic model for the dynamics of a population with either a continuous size structure or a discontinuous stage structure is formulated in the Eulerian formalism. It takes into account dispersion effects due to stochastic variability of the development process of the individuals. The discrete equations of the numerical approximation are derived, and an analysis of the existence and stability of the equilibrium states is performed. An application to a copepod population is illustrated; numerical results of Eulerian and Lagrangian models are compared.

  19. Life history and population dynamics of an estuarine amphipod, Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae)

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Aravind, N.P.; Sheeba, P.; Nair, K.K.C.; Achuthankutty, C.T.

    Life history and Population Dynamics of an Estuarine Amphipod –Eriopisa chilkensis Chilton (Gammaridae) Nisha. P. Aravind, P. Sheeba, K.K.C. Nair and C.T.Achuthankutty* National Institute of Oceanography, Regional Centre, Cochin 682018, India... of laboratory data to the field suggests that E. chilkensis in Cochin estuary has a multivoltine life cycle. Key words: - Eriopisa chilkensis, Amphipoda, life cycle, population dynamics, Cochin estuary, India 2 1. Introduction Life-history traits of 214 amphipod...

  20. Methodology for Simulation and Analysis of Complex Adaptive Supply Network Structure and Dynamics Using Information Theory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Rodewald

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Supply networks existing today in many industries can behave as complex adaptive systems making them more difficult to analyze and assess. Being able to fully understand both the complex static and dynamic structures of a complex adaptive supply network (CASN are key to being able to make more informed management decisions and prioritize resources and production throughout the network. Previous efforts to model and analyze CASN have been impeded by the complex, dynamic nature of the systems. However, drawing from other complex adaptive systems sciences, information theory provides a model-free methodology removing many of those barriers, especially concerning complex network structure and dynamics. With minimal information about the network nodes, transfer entropy can be used to reverse engineer the network structure while local transfer entropy can be used to analyze the network structure’s dynamics. Both simulated and real-world networks were analyzed using this methodology. Applying the methodology to CASNs allows the practitioner to capitalize on observations from the highly multidisciplinary field of information theory which provides insights into CASN’s self-organization, emergence, stability/instability, and distributed computation. This not only provides managers with a more thorough understanding of a system’s structure and dynamics for management purposes, but also opens up research opportunities into eventual strategies to monitor and manage emergence and adaption within the environment.

  1. Effects of Peanut-Tobacco Rotations on Population Dynamics of Meloidogyne arenaria in Mixed Race Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirunsalee, A; Barker, K R; Beute, M K

    1995-06-01

    A 3-year microplot study was initiated to characterize the population dynamics, reproduction potential, and survivorship of single or mixed populations of Meloidogyne arenaria race 1 (Ma1) and race 2 (Ma2), as affected by crop rotations of peanut 'Florigiant' and M. incognita races 1 and 3-resistant 'McNair 373' and susceptible 'Coker 371-Gold' tobacco. Infection, reproduction, and root damage by Ma2 on peanut and by Ma1 on resistant tobacco were limited in the first year. Infection, reproduction, and root-damage potentials on susceptible tobacco were similar for Ma1 and Ma2. In the mixed (1:1) population, Ma1 was dominant on peanut and Ma2 was dominant on both tobacco cultivars. Crop rotation affected the population dynamics of different nematode races. For years 2 and 3, the low numbers of Ma1 and Ma2 from a previous-year poor host increased rapidly on suitable hosts. Ma1 had greater reproduction factors ([RF] = population density at harvest/population density at preplandng) than did Ma2 and Ma1 + Ma2 in second-year peanut plots following first-year resistant tobacco, and in third-year peanut plots following second-year tobacco. In mixed infestations, Ma1 predominated over Ma2 in previous-year peanut plots, whereas Ma2 predominated over Ma1 in previous-year tobacco plots. Moderate damage on resistant tobacco was induced by Ma1 in the second year. In the third year, moderate damage on peanut was associated with 'Ma2' from previous-year peanut plots. The resistant tobacco supported sufficient reproduction of Ma1 over 2 years to effect moderate damage and yield suppression to peanut in year 3.

  2. Complex dynamics analysis of impulsively coupled Duffing oscillators with ring structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang Hai-Bo; Zhang Li-Ping; Yu Jian-Jiang

    2015-01-01

    Impulsively coupled systems are high-dimensional non-smooth systems that can exhibit rich and complex dynamics. This paper studies the complex dynamics of a non-smooth system which is unidirectionally impulsively coupled by three Duffing oscillators in a ring structure. By constructing a proper Poincaré map of the non-smooth system, an analytical expression of the Jacobian matrix of Poincaré map is given. Two-parameter Hopf bifurcation sets are obtained by combining the shooting method and the Runge–Kutta method. When the period is fixed and the coupling strength changes, the system undergoes stable, periodic, quasi-periodic, and hyper-chaotic solutions, etc. Floquet theory is used to study the stability of the periodic solutions of the system and their bifurcations. (paper)

  3. Outer synchronization between two different fractional-order general complex dynamical networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiang-Jun, Wu; Hong-Tao, Lu

    2010-01-01

    Outer synchronization between two different fractional-order general complex dynamical networks is investigated in this paper. Based on the stability theory of the fractional-order system, the sufficient criteria for outer synchronization are derived analytically by applying the nonlinear control and the bidirectional coupling methods. The proposed synchronization method is applicable to almost all kinds of coupled fractional-order general complex dynamical networks. Neither a symmetric nor irreducible coupling configuration matrix is required. In addition, no constraint is imposed on the inner-coupling matrix. Numerical examples are also provided to demonstrate the validity of the presented synchronization scheme. Numeric evidence shows that both the feedback strength k and the fractional order α can be chosen appropriately to adjust the synchronization effect effectively. (general)

  4. The heterogeneous dynamics of economic complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristelli, Matthieu; Tacchella, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

    2015-01-01

    What will be the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or the competitiveness of China, United States, and Vietnam in the next 3, 5 or 10 years? Despite this kind of questions has a large societal impact and an extreme value for economic policy making, providing a scientific basis for economic predictability is still a very challenging problem. Recent results of a new branch--Economic Complexity--have set the basis for a framework to approach such a challenge and to provide new perspectives to cast economic prediction into the conceptual scheme of forecasting the evolution of a dynamical system as in the case of weather dynamics. We argue that a recently introduced non-monetary metrics for country competitiveness (fitness) allows for quantifying the hidden growth potential of countries by the means of the comparison of this measure for intangible assets with monetary figures, such as GDP per capita. This comparison defines the fitness-income plane where we observe that country dynamics presents strongly heterogeneous patterns of evolution. The flow in some zones is found to be laminar while in others a chaotic behavior is instead observed. These two regimes correspond to very different predictability features for the evolution of countries: in the former regime, we find strong predictable pattern while the latter scenario exhibits a very low predictability. In such a framework, regressions, the usual tool used in economics, are no more the appropriate strategy to deal with such a heterogeneous scenario and new concepts, borrowed from dynamical systems theory, are mandatory. We therefore propose a data-driven method--the selective predictability scheme--in which we adopt a strategy similar to the methods of analogues, firstly introduced by Lorenz, to assess future evolution of countries.

  5. Adaptive synchronization of the complex dynamical network with non-derivative and derivative coupling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Yuhua, E-mail: yuhuaxu2004@163.co [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China) and Department of Maths, Yunyang Teachers' College, Hubei 442000 (China); Zhou Wuneng, E-mail: wnzhou@163.co [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China); Fang Jian' an [College of Information Science and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 201620 (China); Sun Wen [School of Mathematics and Information, Yangtze University, Hubei Jingzhou 434023 (China)

    2010-04-05

    This Letter investigates the synchronization of a general complex dynamical network with non-derivative and derivative coupling. Based on LaSalle's invariance principle, adaptive synchronization criteria are obtained. Analytical result shows that under the designed adaptive controllers, a general complex dynamical network with non-derivative and derivative coupling can asymptotically synchronize to a given trajectory, and several useful criteria for synchronization are given. What is more, the coupling matrix is not assumed to be symmetric or irreducible. Finally, simulations results show the method is effective.

  6. seasonal population dynamics of rodents of mount chilalo, arsi ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

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    ABSTRACT: A study on seasonal population dynamics of rodents was carried out on Mount. Chilalo from .... vegetation growth, availability of food and water, and ... vegetation (3,300–4,200 masl) (Alemayehu. Mengistu, 1975; APEDO and ABRDP, 2004). The mountain is one of the Afrotropical biodiversity hotspots areas.

  7. Population Dynamics of Biota on the Roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    NITA ETIKAWATI

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Azolla was a special fern that their associations with Anabaena azollae able to fix free nitrogen from air, to produce protein. Although by the ages, biota diversity those habits on the roots of Azolla increased and effected to protein concentration. The research was to find out population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss and the growth peak. This study used Completely Randomized Design with 10 kinds of biota, i.e. bacteria, Fungi, Actinomycetes, Protozoa, Alga, Crustacean, Rotifers, Coelenterate, Insect and Molluscs, and it was used 3 replications. Research was conducted within 4 weeks and the populations of biota were observed every week. Data were statistically analyzed using Analysis Variant and Duncan’s Multiple Range Test. The population dynamics of biota on the roots of Azolla microphylla Kaulfuss were influenced on its quantity and composition, and the growth peak is done in 2nd week.

  8. Projecting pest population dynamics under global warming: the combined effect of inter- and intra-annual variations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zidon, Royi; Tsueda, Hirotsugu; Morin, Efrat; Morin, Shai

    2016-06-01

    The typical short generation length of insects makes their population dynamics highly sensitive not only to mean annual temperatures but also to their intra-annual variations. To consider the combined effect of both thermal factors under global warming, we propose a modeling framework that links general circulation models (GCMs) with a stochastic weather generator and population dynamics models to predict species population responses to inter- and intra-annual temperature changes. This framework was utilized to explore future changes in populations of Bemisia tabaci, an invasive insect pest-species that affects multiple agricultural systems in the Mediterranean region. We considered three locations representing different pest status and climatic conditions: Montpellier (France), Seville (Spain), and Beit-Jamal (Israel). We produced ensembles of local daily temperature realizations representing current and future (mid-21st century) climatic conditions under two emission scenarios for the three locations. Our simulations predicted a significant increase in the average number of annual generations and in population size, and a significant lengthening of the growing season in all three locations. A negative effect was found only in Seville for the summer season, where future temperatures lead to a reduction in population size. High variability in population size was observed between years with similar annual mean temperatures, suggesting a strong effect of intra-annual temperature variation. Critical periods were from late spring to late summer in Montpellier and from late winter to early summer in Seville and Beit-Jamal. Although our analysis suggested that earlier seasonal activity does not necessarily lead to increased populations load unless an additional generation is produced, it is highly likely that the insect will become a significant pest of open-fields at Mediterranean latitudes above 40° during the next 50 years. Our simulations also implied that current

  9. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡

  10. Population dynamics of Ascaris suum in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, Peter; Thamsborg, Stig M; Petersen, Heidi H; Kringel, Helene; Fredholm, Merete; Roepstorff, Allan

    2009-10-01

    The population dynamics of Ascaris suum was studied by long-term exposure of pigs to infective eggs. The pigs were experimentally inoculated with 25 A. suum eggs/kg/day, and 7, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 postinoculation (PI), respectively. Despite the fact that the pigs were continuously reinfected, dramatic reductions in numbers of liver lesions (white spots) and migrating lung larvae were observed as a function of time. However, even at the end of the study, a few larvae were able to complete migration, but these larvae seemed unable to mature in the small intestine. Thus, the adult worm population seemed to consist of worms from the first part of the exposure period. The noticeable decrease in number of white spots suggests that the level of exposure is not reflected in the number of white spots in the late phase of a continuous infection. The serum levels of A. suum L3-specific IgG1 and IgA were significantly elevated by week 4 PI, after which the antibody levels declined. The population dynamics and parasite regulating mechanisms are discussed for A. suum in pigs as well as for the closely related species A. lumbricoides in humans.

  11. Using chemistry and microfluidics to understand the spatial dynamics of complex biological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastrup, Christian J; Runyon, Matthew K; Lucchetta, Elena M; Price, Jessica M; Ismagilov, Rustem F

    2008-04-01

    Understanding the spatial dynamics of biochemical networks is both fundamentally important for understanding life at the systems level and also has practical implications for medicine, engineering, biology, and chemistry. Studies at the level of individual reactions provide essential information about the function, interactions, and localization of individual molecular species and reactions in a network. However, analyzing the spatial dynamics of complex biochemical networks at this level is difficult. Biochemical networks are nonequilibrium systems containing dozens to hundreds of reactions with nonlinear and time-dependent interactions, and these interactions are influenced by diffusion, flow, and the relative values of state-dependent kinetic parameters. To achieve an overall understanding of the spatial dynamics of a network and the global mechanisms that drive its function, networks must be analyzed as a whole, where all of the components and influential parameters of a network are simultaneously considered. Here, we describe chemical concepts and microfluidic tools developed for network-level investigations of the spatial dynamics of these networks. Modular approaches can be used to simplify these networks by separating them into modules, and simple experimental or computational models can be created by replacing each module with a single reaction. Microfluidics can be used to implement these models as well as to analyze and perturb the complex network itself with spatial control on the micrometer scale. We also describe the application of these network-level approaches to elucidate the mechanisms governing the spatial dynamics of two networkshemostasis (blood clotting) and early patterning of the Drosophila embryo. To investigate the dynamics of the complex network of hemostasis, we simplified the network by using a modular mechanism and created a chemical model based on this mechanism by using microfluidics. Then, we used the mechanism and the model to

  12. Small System dynamics models for big issues : Triple jump towards real-world complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.

    2013-01-01

    System Dynamics (SD) is a method to describe, model, simulate and analyze dynamically complex issues and/or systems in terms of the processes, information, organizational boundaries and strategies. Quantitative SD modeling, simulation and analysis facilitates the (re)design of systems and design of

  13. The dynamic behavior of the exohedral transition metal complexes ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Home; Journals; Journal of Chemical Sciences; Volume 129; Issue 7. The dynamic behavior of the exohedral transition metal complexes of B₄₀ : η⁶- and η⁷-B₄₀Cr(CO) ₃ and Cr(CO) ₃η⁷-B₄η₀-Cr(CO) ₃. NAIWRIT KARMODAK ELUVATHINGAL D JEMMIS. REGULAR ARTICLE Volume 129 Issue 7 July 2017 pp ...

  14. Phase control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan Shi; Wu Jinhui; Gao Jinyue; Pan Chunliu

    2002-01-01

    We use the relative phase of two coherent fields for the control of light amplification with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer in a Λ system. The population inversion and gain with dynamically irreversible pathways of population transfer are shown as the relative phase is varied. We support our results by numerical calculation and analytical explanation

  15. Spatial and temporal dynamics of the genetic organization of small mammal populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, M.H.; Manlove, M.N.; Joule, J.

    1978-01-01

    A functional population is a group of organisms and their offspring that contributes to a common gene pool within a certain area and time period. It is also the unit of evolution and should be viewed both in quantitative and qualitative terms. Selection, drift, dispersal, and mutation can alter the composition of populations. Spatial heterogeneity in allele frequencies argues for a conceptual model that has a series of relatively small populations semi-isolated from one another. Because of the relatively high levels of genetic variability characteristic of most mammalian species, significant amounts of gene flow between these spatially subdivided populations must occur when longer time periods are considered. Fluctuations in the genetic structure of populations seem to be important in altering the fitness of the individuals within the populations. The interaction of populations through gene flow is important in changing the levels of intrapopulational genetic variability. Populations can be characterized as existing on a continuum from relatively stable to unstable numbers and by other associated changes in their characteristics. Temporal changes in allele frequency occur in a variety of mammals. Conceptually, a species can be viewed as a series of dynamic populations that vary in numbers and quality in both a spatial and temporal context even over short distances and time periods. Short term changes in the quality of individuals in a population can be important in altering the short term dynamics of a population

  16. Public health impact of disease-behavior dynamics. Comment on "Coupled disease-behavior dynamics on complex networks: A review" by Z. Wang et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Chad R.; Galvani, Alison P.

    2015-12-01

    In a loop of dynamic feedback, behavior such as the decision to vaccinate, hand washing, or avoidance influences the progression of the epidemic, yet behavior is driven by the individual's and population's perceived risk of infection during an outbreak. In what we believe will become a seminal paper that stimulates future research as well as an informative teaching aid, Wang et. al. comprehensively review methodological advances that have been used to incorporate human behavior into epidemiological models on the effects of coupling disease transmission and behavior on complex social networks [1]. As illustrated by the recent outbreaks of measles and Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), here we highlight the importance of coupling behavior and disease transmission that Wang et al. address.

  17. The dynamic complexity of a three species food chain model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lv Songjuan; Zhao Min

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, a three-species food chain model is analytically investigated on theories of ecology and using numerical simulation. Bifurcation diagrams are obtained for biologically feasible parameters. The results show that the system exhibits rich complexity features such as stable, periodic and chaotic dynamics

  18. Multi-person tracking with overlapping cameras in complex, dynamic environments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liem, M.; Gavrila, D.M.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a multi-camera system to track multiple persons in complex, dynamic environments. Position measurements are obtained by carving out the space defined by foreground regions in the overlapping camera views and projecting these onto blobs on the ground plane. Person appearance is

  19. Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of Bacillus ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ONOS

    2010-01-25

    Jan 25, 2010 ... Population dynamics of soil microbes and diversity of ... 25.78, 25.78, 86.26, 24.73, 68.0, 26.8 and 26.8 kDa proteins and equivalent to Cyt, Cry5 and Cry2 toxins ..... Molecular weight (kDa) of protein fractions of the BT isolates.

  20. Population dynamics of the invasive fish, Gambusia affinis , in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Repeated-measures ANOVA analyses on the catch per unit effort (CPUE) of G. affinis between sampling events and dams revealed significant differences in population dynamics among dams, although an overall trend of rapid increase followed by plateau in summer, with a rapid decline in winter was seen in most dams.

  1. Individual based model of slug population and spatial dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Choi, Y.H.; Bohan, D.A.; Potting, R.P.J.; Semenov, M.A.; Glen, D.M.

    2006-01-01

    The slug, Deroceras reticulatum, is one of the most important pests of agricultural and horticultural crops in UK and Europe. In this paper, a spatially explicit individual based model (IbM) is developed to study the dynamics of a population of D. reticulatum. The IbM establishes a virtual field

  2. Considering transient population dynamics in the conservation of slow life-history species: An application to the sandhill crane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gerber, Brian D.; Kendall, William L.

    2016-01-01

    The importance of transient dynamics of structured populations is increasingly recognized in ecology, yet these implications are not largely considered in conservation practices. We investigate transient and long-term population dynamics to demonstrate the process and utility of incorporating transient dynamics into conservation research and to better understand the population management of slow life-history species; these species can be theoretically highly sensitive to short- and long-term transient effects. We are specifically interested in the effects of anthropogenic removal of individuals from populations, such as caused by harvest, poaching, translocation, or incidental take. We use the sandhill crane (Grus canadensis) as an exemplar species; it is long-lived, has low reproduction, late maturity, and multiple populations are subject to sport harvest. We found sandhill cranes to have extremely high potential, but low likelihood for transient dynamics, even when the population is being harvested. The typically low population growth rate of slow life-history species appears to buffer against many perturbations causing large transient effects. Transient dynamics will dominate population trajectories of these species when stage structures are highly biased towards the younger and non-reproducing individuals, a situation that may be rare in established populations of long-lived animals. However, short-term transient population growth can be highly sensitive to vital rates that are relatively insensitive under equilibrium, suggesting that stage structure should be known if perturbation analysis is used to identify effective conservation strategies. For populations of slow life-history species that are not prone to large perturbations to their most productive individuals, population growth may be approximated by equilibrium dynamics.

  3. Absorption dynamics and delay time in complex potentials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villavicencio, Jorge; Romo, Roberto; Hernández-Maldonado, Alberto

    2018-05-01

    The dynamics of absorption is analyzed by using an exactly solvable model that deals with an analytical solution to Schrödinger’s equation for cutoff initial plane waves incident on a complex absorbing potential. A dynamical absorption coefficient which allows us to explore the dynamical loss of particles from the transient to the stationary regime is derived. We find that the absorption process is characterized by the emission of a series of damped periodic pulses in time domain, associated with damped Rabi-type oscillations with a characteristic frequency, ω = (E + ε)/ℏ, where E is the energy of the incident waves and ‑ε is energy of the quasidiscrete state of the system induced by the absorptive part of the Hamiltonian; the width γ of this resonance governs the amplitude of the pulses. The resemblance of the time-dependent absorption coefficient with a real decay process is discussed, in particular the transition from exponential to nonexponential regimes, a well-known feature of quantum decay. We have also analyzed the effect of the absorptive part of the potential on the dynamical delay time, which behaves differently from the one observed in attractive real delta potentials, exhibiting two regimes: time advance and time delay.

  4. The impact of industrial emissions of copper-nickel smelter complex on the status of populations and communities of small mammals in the Kola Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gennadiy D. Kataev

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available The population status of the small mammals, Micromammalia, was studied in the central mountain and taiga part of the Kola Peninsula in the Lapland Biosphere Reserve and its buffer zone. For this purpose, control groups of animals were selected at a different distance from the Severonikel' industrial complex which is considered as the largest metallurgical company in Europe. It produces nickel, copper and other non-ferrous metals. The study sites were located at 4–30 km from the local source of industrial pollution. The analysis of population dynamics, faunistic structure and biological parameters of mass species of Soricidae, Myomorpha has revealed the differences in habitats depending on the distance to the industrial complex. The results of the chemical analysis of organs and tissue samples of small rodents, their morpho-physiological and genetic characteristics within emission plume were analysed. The abundance of the studied Mammalia species was the lowest at 5 km north and 7 km south of the metallurgical industrial complex. According to our results, animals in a zone of increased industrial emission (sulfur dioxide, compounds of heavy metals concentrations had more deviations from the biological norms in comparison with the same species from less polluted areas. Long-term (1936–2014 abundance dynamics of Clethrionomys glareolus was presented due to the new ecological situation in the region and reduction of the volume of sulfur dioxide emission by the Severonikel' industrial complex. This biotesting method using mammals as study objects may be applied for the definition of ecologically safe level criteria of heavy metal production and it may be used in studies of similar ecological situations.

  5. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  6. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  7. Dynamics on and of complex networks applications to biology, computer science, and the social sciences

    CERN Document Server

    Ganguly, Niloy; Mukherjee, Animesh

    2009-01-01

    This self-contained book systematically explores the statistical dynamics on and of complex networks having relevance across a large number of scientific disciplines. The theories related to complex networks are increasingly being used by researchers for their usefulness in harnessing the most difficult problems of a particular discipline. The book is a collection of surveys and cutting-edge research contributions exploring the interdisciplinary relationship of dynamics on and of complex networks. Towards this goal, the work is thematically organized into three main sections: Part I studies th

  8. An obligatory bacterial mutualism in a multi-drug environment exhibits strong oscillatory population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conwill, Arolyn; Yurtsev, Eugene; Gore, Jeff

    2014-03-01

    A common mechanism of antibiotic resistance in bacteria involves the production of an enzyme that inactivates the antibiotic. By inactivating the antibiotic, resistant cells can protect other cells in the population that would otherwise be sensitive to the drug. In a multidrug environment, an obligatory mutualism arises because populations of different strains rely on each other to breakdown antibiotics in the environment. Here, we experimentally track the population dynamics of two E. coli strains in the presence of two different antibiotics: ampicillin and chloramphenicol. Together the strains are able to grow in antibiotic concentrations that inhibit growth of either one of the strains alone. Although mutualisms are often thought to stabilize population dynamics, we observe strong oscillatory dynamics even when there is long-term coexistence between the two strains. We expect that our results will provide insight into the evolution of antibiotic resistance and, more generally, the evolutionary origin of phenotypic diversity, cooperation, and ecological stability.

  9. Weed populations and crop rotations: exploring dynamics of a structured periodic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mertens, S.K.; Bosch, F. van den; Heesterbeek, J.A.P.

    2002-01-01

    The periodic growing of a certain set of crops in a prescribed order, called a crop rotation, is considered to be an important tool for managing weed populations. Nevertheless, the effects of crop rotations on weed population dynamics are not well understood. Explanations for rotation effects on

  10. Automated x-ray television complex for inspecting standard-size dynamic objects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gusev, E.A.; Luk'yanenko, E.A.; Chelnokov, V.B.; Kuleshov, V.K.; Alkhimov, Yu.V.

    1993-01-01

    An automated x-ray television complex based on a matrix gas-discharge converter having a large area (2.1 x 1.0 m) for inspecting standard-size freight and containers and for diagnosing industrial articles is presented. The pulsed operating mode of the complex with a 512K digital television storage makes it possible to inspect dynamic objects with a minimum dose load (20--100 μR). 6 refs., 5 figs

  11. Neutral Theory: From Complex Population History to Natural Selection and Sociocultural Phenomena in Human Populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Austerlitz, Frédéric; Heyer, Evelyne

    2018-06-01

    Here, we present a synthetic view on how Kimura's Neutral theory has helped us gaining insight on the different evolutionary forces that shape human evolution. We put this perspective in the frame of recent emerging challenges: the use of whole genome data for reconstructing population histories, natural selection on complex polygenic traits, and integrating cultural processes in human evolution.

  12. Experimental and theoretical evidence for the chaotic dynamics of complex structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agop, M; Dimitriu, D G; Poll, E; Niculescu, O; Radu, V

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the experimental results on the formation, dynamics and evolution towards chaos of complex space charge structures that emerge in front of a positively biased electrode immersed in a quiescent plasma. In certain experimental conditions, we managed to obtain the so-called multiple double layers (MDLs) with non-concentric configuration. Our experiments show that the interactions between each MDL's constituent entities are held responsible for the complex dynamics and eventually for its transition to chaos through cascades of spatio-temporal sub-harmonic bifurcations. Further, we build a theoretical model based on the fractal approximation (scale relativity theory) in order to reproduce the experimental results (plasma self-structuring and scenario of evolution to chaos). Comparing the experimental results with the theoretical ones, we observe a good correlation between them. (paper)

  13. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yang; Jia, Xin; Lee, Harry F; Zhao, Hongqiang; Cai, Shuliang; Huang, Xianjin

    2017-01-01

    It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911). Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span) of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  14. Relationship between ancient bridges and population dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Zhao

    Full Text Available It has been suggested that population growth dynamics may be revealed by the geographic distribution and the physical structure of ancient bridges. Yet, this relationship has not been empirically verified. In this study, we applied the archaeological records for ancient bridges to reveal the population growth dynamics in the lower Yangtze River Basin in late imperial China. We investigated 89 ancient bridges in Yixing that were built during the Ming and Qing dynasties (AD1368-1911. Global Position System information and structure (length, width, and span of those bridges was measured during our field investigations. Their distribution density was calculated by ArcGIS. The historical socio-economic dynamics of Yixing was inferred from the distribution and structure of ancient bridges. Based on the above information, the population growth dynamics in Yixing was projected. Our results show that 77 bridges were built in Yixing during the Qing dynasty, which is 6.41 times more than the number built during the Ming dynasty. In the Ming dynasty, bridges were built on pivotal routes; in the Qing dynasty, bridges were scattered across various places. Over the period, the density distribution of bridges shifted northwestward, while the average length and width of bridges decreased. The increasing number of bridges corresponded to population growth, largely attributable to massive clan migration from northern China during the Little Ice Age. The shift in the density distribution of bridges corresponded to the formation of settlements of large clans and the blossoming of Yixing Teapot handicrafts. The scattering and the reduction in average length and width of bridges was due to the dispersal of population and the associated formation of small settlements in the latter period. Our approach is innovative and robust, and could be employed to recover long-term historical population growth dynamics in other parts of China.

  15. Framework based on communicability and flow to analyze complex network dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilson, M.; Kouvaris, N. E.; Deco, G.; Zamora-López, G.

    2018-05-01

    Graph theory constitutes a widely used and established field providing powerful tools for the characterization of complex networks. The intricate topology of networks can also be investigated by means of the collective dynamics observed in the interactions of self-sustained oscillations (synchronization patterns) or propagationlike processes such as random walks. However, networks are often inferred from real-data-forming dynamic systems, which are different from those employed to reveal their topological characteristics. This stresses the necessity for a theoretical framework dedicated to the mutual relationship between the structure and dynamics in complex networks, as the two sides of the same coin. Here we propose a rigorous framework based on the network response over time (i.e., Green function) to study interactions between nodes across time. For this purpose we define the flow that describes the interplay between the network connectivity and external inputs. This multivariate measure relates to the concepts of graph communicability and the map equation. We illustrate our theory using the multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, which describes stable and non-conservative dynamics, but the formalism can be adapted to other local dynamics for which the Green function is known. We provide applications to classical network examples, such as small-world ring and hierarchical networks. Our theory defines a comprehensive framework that is canonically related to directed and weighted networks, thus paving a way to revise the standards for network analysis, from the pairwise interactions between nodes to the global properties of networks including community detection.

  16. Generalized Models from Beta(p, 2) Densities with Strong Allee Effect: Dynamical Approach

    OpenAIRE

    Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel

    2012-01-01

    A dynamical approach to study the behaviour of generalized populational growth models from Beta(p, 2) densities, with strong Allee effect, is presented. The dynamical analysis of the respective unimodal maps is performed using symbolic dynamics techniques. The complexity of the correspondent discrete dynamical systems is measured in terms of topological entropy. Different populational dynamics regimes are obtained when the intrinsic growth rates are modified: extinction, bistability, chaotic ...

  17. Exploring the dynamic and complex integration of sustainability performance measurement into product development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rodrigues, Vinicius Picanco; Morioka, S.; Pigosso, Daniela Cristina Antelmi

    2016-01-01

    In order to deal with the complex and dynamic nature of sustainability integration into the product development process, this research explore the use of a qualitative System Dynamics approach by using the causal loop diagram (CLD) tool. A literature analysis was followed by a case study, aiming ...

  18. Alternating event processes during lifetimes: population dynamics and statistical inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinohara, Russell T; Sun, Yifei; Wang, Mei-Cheng

    2018-01-01

    In the literature studying recurrent event data, a large amount of work has been focused on univariate recurrent event processes where the occurrence of each event is treated as a single point in time. There are many applications, however, in which univariate recurrent events are insufficient to characterize the feature of the process because patients experience nontrivial durations associated with each event. This results in an alternating event process where the disease status of a patient alternates between exacerbations and remissions. In this paper, we consider the dynamics of a chronic disease and its associated exacerbation-remission process over two time scales: calendar time and time-since-onset. In particular, over calendar time, we explore population dynamics and the relationship between incidence, prevalence and duration for such alternating event processes. We provide nonparametric estimation techniques for characteristic quantities of the process. In some settings, exacerbation processes are observed from an onset time until death; to account for the relationship between the survival and alternating event processes, nonparametric approaches are developed for estimating exacerbation process over lifetime. By understanding the population dynamics and within-process structure, the paper provide a new and general way to study alternating event processes.

  19. Distribution and population dynamics of Rhizobium sp. introduced into soil

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Postma, J.

    1989-01-01

    In this thesis the population dynamics of bacteria introduced into soil was studied. In the introduction, the existence of microhabitats favourable for the survival of indigenous bacteria is discussed. Knowledge about the distribution of introduced bacteria over

  20. Structure and dynamics of weakly bound complexes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Skouteris, D.

    1998-01-01

    The present thesis deals with the spectroscopic and theoretical investigation of weakly bound complexes involving a methane molecule. Studies of these Van der Waals complexes can give valuable information on the relevant intermolecular dynamics and promote the understanding of the interactions between molecules (which can ultimately lead to chemical reactions). Especially interesting are complexes involving molecules of high symmetry (e.g. tetrahedral, such as methane) because of the unusual effects arising from it (selection rules, nuclear Spin statistical weights etc.). The infrared spectrum of the Van der Waals complex between a CH 4 and a N 2 O molecule has been recorded and most of it has been assigned in the region of the N - O stretch (approximately 2225.0 cm -1 ). Despite the fact that this is really a weakly bound complex, it is nevertheless rigid enough so that the standard model for asymmetric top spectra can be applied to it with the usual quantum numbers. From the value of the inertial defect, it turns out that the methane unit is locked in a rigid configuration within the complex rather than freely rotating. The intermolecular distance as well as the tilting angle of the N 2 O linear unit are determined from the rotational constants. The complex itself turns out to have a T - shaped configuration. The infrared spectrum of the Ar - CH 4 complex at the ν 4 (bending) band of methane is also assigned. This is different from the previous one in that the methane unit rotates almost freely Within the complex. As a result, the quantum numbers used to classify rovibrational energy levels include these of the free unit. The concept of 'overall symmetry' is made use of to rationalise selection rules in various sub-bands of the spectrum. Moreover, new terms in the potential anisotropy Hamiltonian are calculated through the use of the overall symmetry concept. These are termed 'mixed anisotropy' terms since they involve both rotational and vibrational degrees of

  1. Cellular-automata model of the dwarf shrubs populations and communities dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Komarov

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The probabilistic cellular-automata model of development and long-time dynamics of dwarf shrub populations and communities is developed. It is based on the concept of discrete description of the plant ontogenesis and joint model approaches in terms of probabilistic cellular automata and L-systems by Lindenmayer. Short representation of the basic model allows evaluation of the approach and software implementation. The main variables of the model are a number of partial bushes in clones or area projective cover. The model allows us to investigate the conditions of self-maintenance and sustainability population under different environmental conditions (inaccessibility of the territory for settlement, mosaic moisture conditions of soil and wealth. The model provides a forecast of the total biomass dynamics shrubs and their fractions (stems, leaves, roots, fine roots, fruits on the basis of the data obtained in the discrete description of ontogenesis and further information on the productivity of the plant fractions. The inclusion of the joint dynamics of biomass of shrubs and soil in EFIMOD models cycle of carbon and nitrogen to evaluate the role of shrubs in these circulations, especially at high impact, such as forest fires and clear cutting, allow forecasting of the dynamics of populations and ecosystem functions of shrubs (regulation of biogeochemical cycles maintaining biodiversity, participation in the creation of non-wood products with changing climatic conditions and strong damaging effects (logging, fires; and application of the models developed to investigate the stability and productivity of shrubs and their participation in the cycle of carbon and nitrogen in different climatic and edaphic conditions.

  2. On the Computational Complexity of the Languages of General Symbolic Dynamical Systems and Beta-Shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Simonsen, Jakob Grue

    2009-01-01

    We consider the computational complexity of languages of symbolic dynamical systems. In particular, we study complexity hierarchies and membership of the non-uniform class P/poly. We prove: 1.For every time-constructible, non-decreasing function t(n)=@w(n), there is a symbolic dynamical system...... with language decidable in deterministic time O(n^2t(n)), but not in deterministic time o(t(n)). 2.For every space-constructible, non-decreasing function s(n)=@w(n), there is a symbolic dynamical system with language decidable in deterministic space O(s(n)), but not in deterministic space o(s(n)). 3.There...... are symbolic dynamical systems having hard and complete languages under @?"m^l^o^g^s- and @?"m^p-reduction for every complexity class above LOGSPACE in the backbone hierarchy (hence, P-complete, NP-complete, coNP-complete, PSPACE-complete, and EXPTIME-complete sets). 4.There are decidable languages of symbolic...

  3. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    OpenAIRE

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below which the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are pron...

  4. Geographic coupling of juvenile and adult habitat shapes spatial population dynamics of a coral reef fish

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijbers, C.M.; Nagelekerken, I.; Debrot, A.O.; Jongejans, E.

    2013-01-01

    Marine spatial population dynamics are often addressed with a focus on larval dispersal, without taking into account movement behavior of individuals in later life stages. Processes occurring during demersal life stages may also drive spatial population dynamics if habitat quality is perceived

  5. Stabilization and complex dynamics in a predator-prey model with predator suffering from an infectious disease

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooi, B.W.; Voorn, van G.A.K.; Das, pada Krishna

    2011-01-01

    We study the effects of a non-specified infectious disease of the predator on the dynamics a predator–prey system, by evaluating the dynamics of a three-dimensional model. The predator population in this (PSI) model is split into a susceptible and an unrecoverable infected population, while all

  6. Stabilization and complex dynamics in a predator-prey model with predator suffering from an infectious disease.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooi, B.W.; van Voorn, G.A.K.; Pada Das, K.

    2011-01-01

    We study the effects of a non-specified infectious disease of the predator on the dynamics a predator-prey system, by evaluating the dynamics of a three-dimensional model. The predator population in this (PSI) model is split into a susceptible and an unrecoverable infected population, while all

  7. Complex Dynamic Development of Poliovirus Membranous Replication Complexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nair, Vinod; Hansen, Bryan T.; Hoyt, Forrest H.; Fischer, Elizabeth R.; Ehrenfeld, Ellie

    2012-01-01

    Replication of all positive-strand RNA viruses is intimately associated with membranes. Here we utilize electron tomography and other methods to investigate the remodeling of membranes in poliovirus-infected cells. We found that the viral replication structures previously described as “vesicles” are in fact convoluted, branching chambers with complex and dynamic morphology. They are likely to originate from cis-Golgi membranes and are represented during the early stages of infection by single-walled connecting and branching tubular compartments. These early viral organelles gradually transform into double-membrane structures by extension of membranous walls and/or collapsing of the luminal cavity of the single-membrane structures. As the double-membrane regions develop, they enclose cytoplasmic material. At this stage, a continuous membranous structure may have double- and single-walled membrane morphology at adjacent cross-sections. In the late stages of the replication cycle, the structures are represented mostly by double-membrane vesicles. Viral replication proteins, double-stranded RNA species, and actively replicating RNA are associated with both double- and single-membrane structures. However, the exponential phase of viral RNA synthesis occurs when single-membrane formations are predominant in the cell. It has been shown previously that replication complexes of some other positive-strand RNA viruses form on membrane invaginations, which result from negative membrane curvature. Our data show that the remodeling of cellular membranes in poliovirus-infected cells produces structures with positive curvature of membranes. Thus, it is likely that there is a fundamental divergence in the requirements for the supporting cellular membrane-shaping machinery among different groups of positive-strand RNA viruses. PMID:22072780

  8. Complex Nonlinear Dynamic System of Oligopolies Price Game with Heterogeneous Players Under Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Feng; Li, Yaguang

    A nonlinear four oligopolies price game with heterogeneous players, that are boundedly rational and adaptive, is built using two different special demand costs. Based on the theory of complex discrete dynamical system, the stability and the existing equilibrium point are investigated. The complex dynamic behavior is presented via bifurcation diagrams, the Lyapunov exponents to show equilibrium state, bifurcation and chaos with the variation in parameters. As disturbance is ubiquitous in economic systems, this paper focuses on the analysis of delay feedback control method under noise circumstances. Stable dynamics is confirmed to depend mainly on the low price adjustment speed, and if all four players have limited opportunities to stabilize the market, the new adaptive player facing profits of scale are found to be higher than the incumbents of bounded rational.

  9. Chemical Control for Host-Parasitoid Model within the Parasitism Season and Its Complex Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tao Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper, we develop a host-parasitoid model with Holling type II functional response function and chemical control, which can be applied at any time of each parasitism season or pest generation, and focus on addressing the importance of the timing of application pesticide during the parasitism season or pest generation in successful pest control. Firstly, the existence and stability of both the host and parasitoid populations extinction equilibrium and parasitoid-free equilibrium have been investigated. Secondly, the effects of key parameters on the threshold conditions have been discussed in more detail, which shows the importance of pesticide application times on the pest control. Thirdly, the complex dynamics including multiple attractors coexistence, chaotic behavior, and initial sensitivity have been studied by using numerical bifurcation analyses. Finally, the uncertainty and sensitivity of all the parameters on the solutions of both the host and parasitoid populations are investigated, which can help us to determine the key parameters in designing the pest control strategy. The present research can help us to further understand the importance of timings of pesticide application in the pest control and to improve the classical chemical control and to make management decisions.

  10. Young Children's Knowledge About the Moon: A Complex Dynamic System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venville, Grady J.; Louisell, Robert D.; Wilhelm, Jennifer A.

    2012-08-01

    The purpose of this research was to use a multidimensional theoretical framework to examine young children's knowledge about the Moon. The research was conducted in the interpretive paradigm and the design was a multiple case study of ten children between the ages of three and eight from the USA and Australia. A detailed, semi-structured interview was conducted with each child. In addition, each child's parents were interviewed to determine possible social and cultural influences on the child's knowledge. We sought evidence about how the social and cultural experiences of the children might have influenced the development of their ideas. From a cognitive perspective we were interested in whether the children's ideas were constructed in a theory like form or whether the knowledge was the result of gradual accumulation of fragments of isolated cultural information. Findings reflected the strong and complex relationship between individual children, their social and cultural milieu, and the way they construct ideas about the Moon and astronomy. Findings are presented around four themes including ontology, creatures and artefacts, animism, and permanence. The findings support a complex dynamic system view of students' knowledge that integrates the framework theory perspective and the knowledge in fragments perspective. An initial model of a complex dynamic system of young children's knowledge about the Moon is presented.

  11. Unpacking complexities of managerial subjectivity: An analytic fixation on constitutive dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Plotnikof, Mie

    2012-01-01

    , and the analytic challenges of discourse/Discourse-distinctions and avoiding agency-structure-dualism. This paper proposes an integral conceptualization of subjectification that directs analytic attention to the complex constitutive dynamics of organizational discourses and agency normative to organizational...... is discussed with a case-study of public managers in collaborative governance processes in the Danish day-care sector. With complex-sensitive analytics the paper contributes to the ‘plurivocal’ debate on advancing organizational discourse approaches....

  12. Protein dynamics during presynaptic complex assembly on individual ssDNA molecules

    OpenAIRE

    Gibb, Bryan; Ye, Ling F.; Kwon, YoungHo; Niu, Hengyao; Sung, Patrick; Greene, Eric C.

    2014-01-01

    Homologous recombination is a conserved pathway for repairing double?stranded breaks, which are processed to yield single?stranded DNA overhangs that serve as platforms for presynaptic complex assembly. Here we use single?molecule imaging to reveal the interplay between Saccharomyce cerevisiae RPA, Rad52, and Rad51 during presynaptic complex assembly. We show that Rad52 binds RPA?ssDNA and suppresses RPA turnover, highlighting an unanticipated regulatory influence on protein dynamics. Rad51 b...

  13. Impacts of large dams on the complexity of suspended sediment dynamics in the Yangtze River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuankun; Rhoads, Bruce L.; Wang, Dong; Wu, Jichun; Zhang, Xiao

    2018-03-01

    The Yangtze River is one of the largest and most important rivers in the world. Over the past several decades, the natural sediment regime of the Yangtze River has been altered by the construction of dams. This paper uses multi-scale entropy analysis to ascertain the impacts of large dams on the complexity of high-frequency suspended sediment dynamics in the Yangtze River system, especially after impoundment of the Three Gorges Dam (TGD). In this study, the complexity of sediment dynamics is quantified by framing it within the context of entropy analysis of time series. Data on daily sediment loads for four stations located in the mainstem are analyzed for the past 60 years. The results indicate that dam construction has reduced the complexity of short-term (1-30 days) variation in sediment dynamics near the structures, but that complexity has actually increased farther downstream. This spatial pattern seems to reflect a filtering effect of the dams on the on the temporal pattern of sediment loads as well as decreased longitudinal connectivity of sediment transfer through the river system, resulting in downstream enhancement of the influence of local sediment inputs by tributaries on sediment dynamics. The TGD has had a substantial impact on the complexity of sediment series in the mainstem of the Yangtze River, especially after it became fully operational. This enhanced impact is attributed to the high trapping efficiency of this dam and its associated large reservoir. The sediment dynamics "signal" becomes more spatially variable after dam construction. This study demonstrates the spatial influence of dams on the high-frequency temporal complexity of sediment regimes and provides valuable information that can be used to guide environmental conservation of the Yangtze River.

  14. NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Dynamics of Polyatomic Van der Waals Complexes

    CERN Document Server

    Janda, Kenneth

    1991-01-01

    This publication is the Proceedings of the NATO Advanced Research Workshop (ARW) on the Dynamics of Polyatomic Van der Waals Molecules held at the Chateau de Bonas, Castera-Verduzan, France, from August 21 through August 26, 1989. Van der Waals complexes provide important model problems for understanding energy transfer and dissipation. These processes can be described in great detail for Van der Waals complexes, and the insight gained from such studies can be applied to more complicated chemical problems that are not amenable to detailed study. The workshop concentrated on the current questions and future prospects for extend­ ing our highly detailed knowledge of triatomic Van der Waals molecule dynamics to polyatomic molecules and clusters (one molecule surrounded by several, or up to sev­ eral tens of, atoms). Both experimental and theoretical studies were discussed, with particular emphasis on the dynamical behavior of dissociation as observed in the dis­ tributions of quantum states of the dissociatio...

  15. Hash function construction using weighted complex dynamical networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song Yu-Rong; Jiang Guo-Ping

    2013-01-01

    A novel scheme to construct a hash function based on a weighted complex dynamical network (WCDN) generated from an original message is proposed in this paper. First, the original message is divided into blocks. Then, each block is divided into components, and the nodes and weighted edges are well defined from these components and their relations. Namely, the WCDN closely related to the original message is established. Furthermore, the node dynamics of the WCDN are chosen as a chaotic map. After chaotic iterations, quantization and exclusive-or operations, the fixed-length hash value is obtained. This scheme has the property that any tiny change in message can be diffused rapidly through the WCDN, leading to very different hash values. Analysis and simulation show that the scheme possesses good statistical properties, excellent confusion and diffusion, strong collision resistance and high efficiency. (general)

  16. Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

    2014-10-01

    We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

  17. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-01-01

    This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade ar...

  18. Fast stochastic algorithm for simulating evolutionary population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsimring, Lev; Hasty, Jeff; Mather, William

    2012-02-01

    Evolution and co-evolution of ecological communities are stochastic processes often characterized by vastly different rates of reproduction and mutation and a coexistence of very large and very small sub-populations of co-evolving species. This creates serious difficulties for accurate statistical modeling of evolutionary dynamics. In this talk, we introduce a new exact algorithm for fast fully stochastic simulations of birth/death/mutation processes. It produces a significant speedup compared to the direct stochastic simulation algorithm in a typical case when the total population size is large and the mutation rates are much smaller than birth/death rates. We illustrate the performance of the algorithm on several representative examples: evolution on a smooth fitness landscape, NK model, and stochastic predator-prey system.

  19. Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

    2018-03-01

    Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

  20. Analysis of Population Diversity of Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingjian Ni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In evolutionary algorithm, population diversity is an important factor for solving performance. In this paper, combined with some population diversity analysis methods in other evolutionary algorithms, three indicators are introduced to be measures of population diversity in PSO algorithms, which are standard deviation of population fitness values, population entropy, and Manhattan norm of standard deviation in population positions. The three measures are used to analyze the population diversity in a relatively new PSO variant—Dynamic Probabilistic Particle Swarm Optimization (DPPSO. The results show that the three measure methods can fully reflect the evolution of population diversity in DPPSO algorithms from different angles, and we also discuss the impact of population diversity on the DPPSO variants. The relevant conclusions of the population diversity on DPPSO can be used to analyze, design, and improve the DPPSO algorithms, thus improving optimization performance, which could also be beneficial to understand the working mechanism of DPPSO theoretically.

  1. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stepanov, Serguei [Optics Department, CICESE, km.107 carr. Tijuana-Ensenada, Ensenada, 22860, BC (Mexico)], E-mail: steps@cicese.mx

    2008-11-21

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  2. Dynamic population gratings in rare-earth-doped optical fibres

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stepanov, Serguei

    2008-01-01

    Dynamic Bragg gratings can be recorded in rare-earth (e.g. Er, Yb) doped optical fibres by two counter-propagating mutually coherent laser waves via local saturation of the fibre optical absorption or gain (in optically pumped fibres). Typical recording cw light power needed for efficient grating formation is of sub-mW-mW scale which results in characteristic recording/erasure times of 10-0.1 ms. This review paper discusses fundamental aspects of the population grating formation, their basic properties, relating wave-mixing processes and also considers different applications of these dynamic gratings in single-frequency fibre lasers, tunable filters, optical fibre sensors and adaptive interferometry.

  3. Population Dynamics of the Mediterranean Fruit Fly in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sanja Radonjić

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Population dynamics of the Mediterranean fruit fly was studied along Montenegro seacoast. Tephri traps baited with 3 component female-biased attractants were used in 11 different localities to monitor the fruit fly population in commercial citrus orchards, mixed-fruit orchards, and in backyards. From 2008–2010, the earliest captures were recorded no earlier than July. In 2011, the first adult fly was detected in mid-June. Low captures rates were recorded in July and August (below 0.5 flies per trap per day; FTD and peaked from mid-September to the end of October of each year. Our results indicate fluctuation of fly per trap per day depending on dates of inspection and locality, with significant differences in the adult population density. A maximum population was always reached in the area of Budva-Herceg Novi with an FTD of 66.5, 89.5, 71.63, and 24.64 (from 2008–2011 respectively. Fly activity lasts from mid-June/early-July to end December, with distinct seasonal variation in the population.

  4. Exponentially asymptotical synchronization in uncertain complex dynamical networks with time delay

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Qun; Yang Han; Li Lixiang; Yang Yixian [Information Security Center, State Key Laboratory of Networking and Switching Technology, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China); Han Jiangxue, E-mail: luoqun@bupt.edu.c [National Engineering Laboratory for Disaster Backup and Recovery, Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications, Beijing 100876 (China)

    2010-12-10

    Over the past decade, complex dynamical network synchronization has attracted more and more attention and important developments have been made. In this paper, we explore the scheme of globally exponentially asymptotical synchronization in complex dynamical networks with time delay. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and through defining the error function between adjacent nodes, four novel adaptive controllers are designed under four situations where the Lipschitz constants of the state function in nodes are known or unknown and the network structure is certain or uncertain, respectively. These controllers could not only globally asymptotically synchronize all nodes in networks, but also ensure that the error functions do not exceed the pre-scheduled exponential function. Finally, simulations of the synchronization among the chaotic system in the small-world and scale-free network structures are presented, which prove the effectiveness and feasibility of our controllers.

  5. On the representation of contextual probabilistic dynamics in the complex Hilbert space: Linear and nonlinear evolutions, Schrodinger dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khrennikov, A.

    2005-01-01

    We constructed the representation of contextual probabilistic dynamics in the complex Hilbert space. Thus dynamics of the wave function can be considered as Hilbert space projection of realistic dynamics in a pre space. The basic condition for representing the pre space-dynamics is the law of statistical conservation of energy-conservation of probabilities. The construction of the dynamical representation is an important step in the development of contextual statistical viewpoint of quantum processes. But the contextual statistical model is essentially more general than the quantum one. Therefore in general the Hilbert space projection of the pre space dynamics can be nonlinear and even irreversible (but it is always unitary). There were found conditions of linearity and reversibility of the Hilbert space dynamical projection. We also found conditions for the conventional Schrodinger dynamics (including time-dependent Hamiltonians). We remark that in general even the Schrodinger dynamics is based just on the statistical conservation of energy; for individual systems the law of conservation of energy can be violated (at least in our theoretical model)

  6. Sensitivity Analysis for Assessing Effects of Tree Population Dynamics on Soil Bioturbation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Y. E.; Johnson, E. A.

    2012-12-01

    Bioturbation due to tree root throw is thought to be an important process in soil production and soil mixing. Despite progress in our understanding of root throw processes, the tree population dynamics affecting the occurrence and timing of root throw events remain much less well explained. Unfortunately, research about forest dynamics is not always undertaken from the perspective of those interested in tree death, tree topple and associated root throw. As a result, the necessary field data about tree population dynamics is often unavailable for many locations. The acquisition of such data would allow for improved interpretation of root throw observations and for incorporation within numerical models of tree root throw occurrence. The present study uses our earlier tree population dynamics model calibrated for subalpine forests in the Canadian Rockies to test the sensitivity of forest parameters within the model that determine tree death, tree topple, root throw and soil bioturbation. Crown wildfire disturbance is the primary driver of tree population dynamics, with wind throw being mainly of local importance. The recruitment and mortality of trees during multiple generations of forest determine the number of live trees on the landscape at any given time. Tree death may occur due to competition/thinning of trees between wildfire events or as a result of the wildfire itself. Unless trees die due to sudden wind throw events (as mentioned above, this is only of local significance in our study area), they remain standing for some time period after tree death and before tree topple; these trees are referred to as standing dead trees. The duration of this time window and several other factors influence if a tree breaks at its base or upheaves a relatively intact root plate with attached sediment. Our field research has also suggested that a minimum dbh is required before a root plate is large enough to upheave notable amounts of sediment. Modelling results in this study

  7. Scaling of the mean and variance of population dynamics under fluctuating regimes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pertoldi, Cino; Faurby, S; Reed, D H; Knape, J; Björklund, M; Lundberg, P; Kaitala, V; Loeschcke, V; Bach, L A

    2014-12-01

    Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on the interactions between exogenous (biotic and abiotic) and endogenous (e.g., demographic and genetic) drivers of population dynamics. Recent work focuses on the autocorrelation structure of environmental perturbations and its effects on the persistence of populations. Accurate estimation of extinction times and especially determination of the mechanisms affecting extinction times is important for biodiversity conservation. Here we examine the interaction between environmental fluctuations and the scaling effect of the mean population size with its variance. We investigate how interactions between environmental and demographic stochasticity can affect the mean time to extinction, change optimal patch size dynamics, and how it can alter the often-assumed linear relationship between the census size and the effective population size. The importance of the correlation between environmental and demographic variation depends on the relative importance of the two types of variation. We found the correlation to be important when the two types of variation were approximately equal; however, the importance of the correlation diminishes as one source of variation dominates. The implications of these findings are discussed from a conservation and eco-evolutionary point of view.

  8. Complex dynamics in Duffing system with two external forcings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jing Zhujun; Wang Ruiqi

    2005-01-01

    Duffing's equation with two external forcing terms have been discussed. The threshold values of chaotic motion under the periodic and quasi-periodic perturbations are obtained by using second-order averaging method and Melnikov's method. Numerical simulations not only show the consistence with the theoretical analysis but also exhibit the interesting bifurcation diagrams and the more new complex dynamical behaviors, including period-n (n=2,3,6,8) orbits, cascades of period-doubling and reverse period doubling bifurcations, quasi-periodic orbit, period windows, bubble from period-one to period-two, onset of chaos, hopping behavior of chaos, transient chaos, chaotic attractors and strange non-chaotic attractor, crisis which depends on the frequencies, amplitudes and damping. In particular, the second frequency plays a very important role for dynamics of the system, and the system can leave chaotic region to periodic motions by adjusting some parameter which can be considered as an control strategy of chaos. The computation of Lyapunov exponents confirm the dynamical behaviors

  9. [Population dynamics of oligosporous actinomycetes in Chernozem soil].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zenova, G M; Mikhaĭlova, N V; Zviagintsev, D G

    2000-01-01

    Investigation of the dynamics of an oligosporous actinomycete population in chernozem soil in the course of succession induced by soil wetting allowed us to reveal the time intervals and conditions optimal for the isolation of particular oligosporous actinomycetes. Saccharopolysporas and microbisporas proved to be best isolated in the early and late stages of succession, whereas actinomycetes of the subgroup Actinomadura and saccharomonosporas could be best isolated in the early and intermediate stages of succession.

  10. Identification of Complex Dynamical Systems with Neural Networks (2/2)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The identification and analysis of high dimensional nonlinear systems is obviously a challenging task. Neural networks have been proven to be universal approximators but this still leaves the identification task a hard one. To do it efficiently, we have to violate some of the rules of classical regression theory. Furthermore we should focus on the interpretation of the resulting model to overcome its black box character. First, we will discuss function approximation with 3 layer feedforward neural networks up to new developments in deep neural networks and deep learning. These nets are not only of interest in connection with image analysis but are a center point of the current artificial intelligence developments. Second, we will focus on the analysis of complex dynamical system in the form of state space models realized as recurrent neural networks. After the introduction of small open dynamical systems we will study dynamical systems on manifolds. Here manifold and dynamics have to be identified in parall...

  11. Identification of Complex Dynamical Systems with Neural Networks (1/2)

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2016-01-01

    The identification and analysis of high dimensional nonlinear systems is obviously a challenging task. Neural networks have been proven to be universal approximators but this still leaves the identification task a hard one. To do it efficiently, we have to violate some of the rules of classical regression theory. Furthermore we should focus on the interpretation of the resulting model to overcome its black box character. First, we will discuss function approximation with 3 layer feedforward neural networks up to new developments in deep neural networks and deep learning. These nets are not only of interest in connection with image analysis but are a center point of the current artificial intelligence developments. Second, we will focus on the analysis of complex dynamical system in the form of state space models realized as recurrent neural networks. After the introduction of small open dynamical systems we will study dynamical systems on manifolds. Here manifold and dynamics have to be identified in parall...

  12. Preictal dynamics of EEG complexity in intracranially recorded epileptic seizure: a case report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bob, Petr; Roman, Robert; Svetlak, Miroslav; Kukleta, Miloslav; Chladek, Jan; Brazdil, Milan

    2014-11-01

    Recent findings suggest that neural complexity reflecting a number of independent processes in the brain may characterize typical changes during epileptic seizures and may enable to describe preictal dynamics. With respect to previously reported findings suggesting specific changes in neural complexity during preictal period, we have used measure of pointwise correlation dimension (PD2) as a sensitive indicator of nonstationary changes in complexity of the electroencephalogram (EEG) signal. Although this measure of complexity in epileptic patients was previously reported by Feucht et al (Applications of correlation dimension and pointwise dimension for non-linear topographical analysis of focal onset seizures. Med Biol Comput. 1999;37:208-217), it was not used to study changes in preictal dynamics. With this aim to study preictal changes of EEG complexity, we have examined signals from 11 multicontact depth (intracerebral) EEG electrodes located in 108 cortical and subcortical brain sites, and from 3 scalp EEG electrodes in a patient with intractable epilepsy, who underwent preoperative evaluation before epilepsy surgery. From those 108 EEG contacts, records related to 44 electrode contacts implanted into lesional structures and white matter were not included into the experimental analysis.The results show that in comparison to interictal period (at about 8-6 minutes before seizure onset), there was a statistically significant decrease in PD2 complexity in the preictal period at about 2 minutes before seizure onset in all 64 intracranial channels localized in various brain sites that were included into the analysis and in 3 scalp EEG channels as well. Presented results suggest that using PD2 in EEG analysis may have significant implications for research of preictal dynamics and prediction of epileptic seizures.

  13. Dynamics in photosynthetic transient complexes studied by paramagnetic NMR spectroscopy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Scanu, Sandra

    2013-01-01

    This PhD thesis focuses on fundamental aspects of protein-protein interactions. A multidisciplinary methodology for the detection and visualization of transient, lowly-populated encounter protein complexes is described. The new methodology combined paramagnetic NMR spectroscopy with computational

  14. Experimental test of an eco-evolutionary dynamic feedback loop between evolution and population density in the green peach aphid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turcotte, Martin M; Reznick, David N; Daniel Hare, J

    2013-05-01

    An eco-evolutionary feedback loop is defined as the reciprocal impacts of ecology on evolutionary dynamics and evolution on ecological dynamics on contemporary timescales. We experimentally tested for an eco-evolutionary feedback loop in the green peach aphid, Myzus persicae, by manipulating initial densities and evolution. We found strong evidence that initial aphid density alters the rate and direction of evolution, as measured by changes in genotype frequencies through time. We also found that evolution of aphids within only 16 days, or approximately three generations, alters the rate of population growth and predicts density compared to nonevolving controls. The impact of evolution on population dynamics also depended on density. In one evolution treatment, evolution accelerated population growth by up to 10.3% at high initial density or reduced it by up to 6.4% at low initial density. The impact of evolution on population growth was as strong as or stronger than that caused by a threefold change in intraspecific density. We found that, taken together, ecological condition, here intraspecific density, alters evolutionary dynamics, which in turn alter concurrent population growth rate (ecological dynamics) in an eco-evolutionary feedback loop. Our results suggest that ignoring evolution in studies predicting population dynamics might lead us to over- or underestimate population density and that we cannot predict the evolutionary outcome within aphid populations without considering population size.

  15. About a dynamic model of interaction of insect population with food plant

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.V. Nedorezov

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available In present paper there is the consideration of mathematical model of food plant (resource - consumer (insect population - pathogen system dynamics which is constructed as a system of ordinary differential equations. The dynamic regimes of model are analyzed and, in particular, with the help of numerical methods it is shown that trigger regimes (regimes with two stable attractors can be realized in model under very simple assumptions about ecological and intra-population processes functioning. Within the framework of model it was assumed that the rate of food flow into the system is constant and functioning of intra-population selfregulative mechanisms can be described by Verhulst model. As it was found, trigger regimes are different with respect to their properties: in particular, in model the trigger regimes with one of stable stationary points on the coordinate plane can be realized (it corresponds to the situation when sick individuals in population are absent and their appearance in small volume leads to their asymptotic elimination; also the regimes with several nonzero stationary states and stable periodic fluctuations were found.

  16. CONNECTION BETWEEN DYNAMICALLY DERIVED INITIAL MASS FUNCTION NORMALIZATION AND STELLAR POPULATION PARAMETERS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L.; Alatalo, Katherine; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Crocker, Alison F.; Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom; Naab, Thorsten

    2014-01-01

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS 3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α dyn ≡ (M/L) stars /(M/L) Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α dyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α dyn -[α/Fe] and α dyn –Age correlations and no significant α dyn –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis

  17. Connection between Dynamically Derived Initial Mass Function Normalization and Stellar Population Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    McDermid, Richard M.; Cappellari, Michele; Alatalo, Katherine; Bayet, Estelle; Blitz, Leo; Bois, Maxime; Bournaud, Frédéric; Bureau, Martin; Crocker, Alison F.; Davies, Roger L.; Davis, Timothy A.; de Zeeuw, P. T.; Duc, Pierre-Alain; Emsellem, Eric; Khochfar, Sadegh; Krajnović, Davor; Kuntschner, Harald; Morganti, Raffaella; Naab, Thorsten; Oosterloo, Tom; Sarzi, Marc; Scott, Nicholas; Serra, Paolo; Weijmans, Anne-Marie; Young, Lisa M.

    2014-09-01

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS3D project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization αdyn ≡ (M/L)stars/(M/L)Salp and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of αdyn at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak αdyn-[α/Fe] and αdyn -Age correlations and no significant αdyn -[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

  18. Phenotypic equilibrium as probabilistic convergence in multi-phenotype cell population dynamics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da-Quan Jiang

    Full Text Available We consider the cell population dynamics with n different phenotypes. Both the Markovian branching process model (stochastic model and the ordinary differential equation (ODE system model (deterministic model are presented, and exploited to investigate the dynamics of the phenotypic proportions. We will prove that in both models, these proportions will tend to constants regardless of initial population states ("phenotypic equilibrium" under weak conditions, which explains the experimental phenomenon in Gupta et al.'s paper. We also prove that Gupta et al.'s explanation is the ODE model under a special assumption. As an application, we will give sufficient and necessary conditions under which the proportion of one phenotype tends to 0 (die out or 1 (dominate. We also extend our results to non-Markovian cases.

  19. Population dynamics of Greater Scaup breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flint, Paul L.; Grand, J. Barry; Fondell, Thomas F.; Morse, Julie A.

    2006-01-01

    Populations of greater scaup (Aythya marila) remained relatively stable during a period when populations of lesser scaup (A. affinis) have declined from historic levels. To assist in describing these differences in population trends, from 1991 through 2000, we studied the survival, nesting ecology, and productivity of greater scaup on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (Y-K Delta), Alaska, to develop a model of population dynamics. We located nests, radio-marked females for renesting studies, estimated duckling survival, and leg-banded females to examine nest site fidelity and annual survival.

  20. Precise regulation of gene expression dynamics favors complex promoter architectures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dirk Müller

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Promoters process signals through recruitment of transcription factors and RNA polymerase, and dynamic changes in promoter activity constitute a major noise source in gene expression. However, it is barely understood how complex promoter architectures determine key features of promoter dynamics. Here, we employ prototypical promoters of yeast ribosomal protein genes as well as simplified versions thereof to analyze the relations among promoter design, complexity, and function. These promoters combine the action of a general regulatory factor with that of specific transcription factors, a common motif of many eukaryotic promoters. By comprehensively analyzing stationary and dynamic promoter properties, this model-based approach enables us to pinpoint the structural characteristics underlying the observed behavior. Functional tradeoffs impose constraints on the promoter architecture of ribosomal protein genes. We find that a stable scaffold in the natural design results in low transcriptional noise and strong co-regulation of target genes in the presence of gene silencing. This configuration also exhibits superior shut-off properties, and it can serve as a tunable switch in living cells. Model validation with independent experimental data suggests that the models are sufficiently realistic. When combined, our results offer a mechanistic explanation for why specific factors are associated with low protein noise in vivo. Many of these findings hold for a broad range of model parameters and likely apply to other eukaryotic promoters of similar structure.

  1. Integrating count and detection–nondetection data to model population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zipkin, Elise F.; Rossman, Sam; Yackulic, Charles B.; Wiens, David; Thorson, James T.; Davis, Raymond J.; Grant, Evan H. Campbell

    2017-01-01

    There is increasing need for methods that integrate multiple data types into a single analytical framework as the spatial and temporal scale of ecological research expands. Current work on this topic primarily focuses on combining capture–recapture data from marked individuals with other data types into integrated population models. Yet, studies of species distributions and trends often rely on data from unmarked individuals across broad scales where local abundance and environmental variables may vary. We present a modeling framework for integrating detection–nondetection and count data into a single analysis to estimate population dynamics, abundance, and individual detection probabilities during sampling. Our dynamic population model assumes that site-specific abundance can change over time according to survival of individuals and gains through reproduction and immigration. The observation process for each data type is modeled by assuming that every individual present at a site has an equal probability of being detected during sampling processes. We examine our modeling approach through a series of simulations illustrating the relative value of count vs. detection–nondetection data under a variety of parameter values and survey configurations. We also provide an empirical example of the model by combining long-term detection–nondetection data (1995–2014) with newly collected count data (2015–2016) from a growing population of Barred Owl (Strix varia) in the Pacific Northwest to examine the factors influencing population abundance over time. Our model provides a foundation for incorporating unmarked data within a single framework, even in cases where sampling processes yield different detection probabilities. This approach will be useful for survey design and to researchers interested in incorporating historical or citizen science data into analyses focused on understanding how demographic rates drive population abundance.

  2. Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, John H.; Korfanta, Nicole M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.

    2011-01-01

    We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990-2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark-recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised =1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (lambda) estimated from average vital rates was lambdaa=1.072 with lambdai=1.288 during colony increase and lambdad=0.921 (DELTA lambda=0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival.

  3. Effect of temperature on the population dynamics of Aedes aegypti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusoff, Nuraini; Tokachil, Mohd Najir

    2015-10-01

    Aedes aegypti is one of the main vectors in the transmission of dengue fever. Its abundance may cause the spread of the disease to be more intense. In the study of its biological life cycle, temperature was found to increase the development rate of each stage of this species and thus, accelerate the process of the development from egg to adult. In this paper, a Lefkovitch matrix model will be used to study the stage-structured population dynamics of Aedes aegypti. In constructing the transition matrix, temperature will be taken into account. As a case study, temperature recorded at the Subang Meteorological Station for year 2006 until 2010 will be used. Population dynamics of Aedes aegypti at maximum, average and minimum temperature for each year will be simulated and compared. It is expected that the higher the temperature, the faster the mosquito will breed. The result will be compared to the number of dengue fever incidences to see their relationship.

  4. Emergence of cooperation in phenotypically heterogeneous populations: a replicator dynamics analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barreira da Silva Rocha, A; Escobedo, R; Laruelle, A

    2015-01-01

    The emergence of cooperation is analyzed in heterogeneous populations where two kinds of individuals exist according to their phenotypic appearance. Phenotype recognition is assumed for all individuals: individuals are able to identify the type of every other individual, but fail to recognize their own type. Individuals thus behave under partial information conditions. The interactions between individuals are described by the snowdrift game, where individuals can either cooperate or defect. The evolution of such populations is studied in the framework of evolutionary game theory by means of the replicator dynamics. Overlapping generations are considered, so the replicator equations are formulated in discrete-time form. The stability analysis of the dynamical system is carried out and a detailed description of the behavior of trajectories starting from the interior of the state-space is given. We find that the four monomorphic states are unstable and that a polymorphic state exists which is a global attractor for non-degenerate initial states of the population. The result for the discrete-time replicator coincides with the one of the continuous case. (paper)

  5. The 'Natural Laboratory', a tool for deciphering growth, lifetime and population dynamics in larger benthic foraminifera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hohenegger, Johann

    2015-04-01

    The shells of symbiont-bearing larger benthic Foraminifera (LBF) represent the response to physiological requirements in dependence of environmental conditions. All compartments of the shell such as chambers and chamberlets accommodate the growth of the cell protoplasm and are adaptations for housing photosymbiotic algae. Investigations on the biology of LBF were predominantly based on laboratory studies. The lifetime of LBF under natural conditions is still unclear. LBF, which can build >100 chambers during their lifetime, are thought to live at least one year under natural conditions. This is supported by studies on population dynamics of eulittoral foraminifera. In species characterized by a time-restricted single reproduction period the mean size of specimens increases from small to large during lifetime simultaneously reducing individual number. This becomes more complex when two or more reproduction times are present within a one-year cycle leading to a mixture of abundant small individuals with few large specimens during the year, while keeping mean size more or less constant. This mixture is typical for most sublittoral megalospheric (gamonts or schizonts) LBF. Nothing is known on the lifetime of agamonts, the diploid asexually reproducing generation. In all hyaline LBF it is thought to be significantly longer than 1 year based on the large size and considering the mean chamber building rate of the gamont/schizonts. Observations on LBF under natural conditions have not been performed yet in the deeper sublittoral. This reflects the difficulties due to intense hydrodynamics that hinder deploying technical equipment for studies in the natural environment. Therefore, studying growth, lifetime and reproduction of sublittoral LBF under natural conditions can be performed using the so-called 'natural laboratory' in comparison with laboratory investigations. The best sampling method in the upper sublittoral from 5 to 70 m depth is by SCUBA diving. Irregular

  6. Return-to-Work Within a Complex and Dynamic Organizational Work Disability System

    OpenAIRE

    Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Fish, Jon; Hettinger, Lawrence J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Return-to-work (RTW) within a complex organizational system can be associated with suboptimal outcomes. Purpose To apply a sociotechnical systems perspective to investigate complexity in RTW; to utilize system dynamics modeling (SDM) to examine how feedback relationships between individual, psychosocial, and organizational factors make up the work disability system and influence RTW. Methods SDMs were developed within two companies. Thirty stakeholders including senior managers, an...

  7. Dynamics of a population of oscillatory and excitable elements.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Keeffe, Kevin P; Strogatz, Steven H

    2016-06-01

    We analyze a variant of a model proposed by Kuramoto, Shinomoto, and Sakaguchi for a large population of coupled oscillatory and excitable elements. Using the Ott-Antonsen ansatz, we reduce the behavior of the population to a two-dimensional dynamical system with three parameters. We present the stability diagram and calculate several of its bifurcation curves analytically, for both excitatory and inhibitory coupling. Our main result is that when the coupling function is broad, the system can display bistability between steady states of constant high and low activity, whereas when the coupling function is narrow and inhibitory, one of the states in the bistable regime can show persistent pulsations in activity.

  8. Radiation belt seed population and its association with the relativistic electron dynamics: A statistical study: Radiation Belt Seed Population

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tang, C. L.; Wang, Y. X.; Ni, B.; Zhang, J.-C.

    2017-01-01

    Using the Van Allen Probes data, we study the radiation belt seed population and it associated with the relativistic electron dynamics during 74 geomagnetic storm events. Based on the flux changes of 1 MeV electrons before and after the storm peak, these storm events are divided into two groups of “non-preconditioned” and “preconditioned”. The statistical study shows that the storm intensity is of significant importance for the distribution of the seed population (336 keV electrons) in the outer radiation belt. However, substorm intensity can also be important to the evolution of the seed population for some geomagnetic storm events. For non-preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the peak fluxes and their L-shell locations of the seed population and relativistic electrons (592 keV, 1.0 MeV, 1.8 MeV, and 2.1 MeV) is consistent with the energy-dependent dynamic processes in the outer radiation belt. For preconditioned storm events, the correlation between the features of the seed population and relativistic electrons is not fully consistent with the energy-dependent processes. It is suggested that the good correlation between the radiation belt seed population and ≤1.0 MeV electrons contributes to the prediction of the evolution of ≤1.0 MeV electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt during periods of geomagnetic storms.

  9. Scaling up population dynamic processes in a ladybird–aphid

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Houdková, Kateřina; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 48, - (2006), s. 323-332 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GEDIV/06/E013; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06073; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA6087301; GA ČR(CZ) GD206/03/H034 Keywords : Aphids * Egg window * Ladybirds * Metapopulation * Model * Population dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 1.534, year: 2006

  10. Population dynamics of three songbird species in a nestbox population in Central Europe show effects of density, climate and competitive interactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Smallegange, I.M.; van der Meer, J.; Fiedler, W.

    2011-01-01

    Unravelling the contributions of density-dependent and density-independent factors in determining species population dynamics is a challenge, especially if the two factors interact. One approach is to apply stochastic population models to long-term data, yet few studies have included interactions

  11. Studies on population dynamic of diamondback moth in the field

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malakrong, A.; Limohpasmanee, W.; Keawchoung, P.; Kodcharint, P.

    1994-01-01

    The population dynamic of diamondback moth larva in the field was studied at Khao Khor High-land Agricultural Research Station during August-October 1993 and February-April 1994. The distribution patterns of diamondback moth larva was clumped when population was low and would change to be random when population was high. The maximun and minimum number of diamondback moth in the field were 71,203 and 2,732 larva/rai during March and September. Temperature, rainfall and age of cabbage were slightly relative with number of larva (r=-0.2891, p=0.30; r=-0.2816, p=0.31 and r=0.2931, p=0.29 respectively) but relative humidity has no effect on number of larva

  12. Application of stochastic Liouville–von Neumann equation to electronic energy transfer in FMO complex

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Imai, Hajime; Ohtsuki, Yukiyoshi; Kono, Hirohiko

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Stochastic Liouville–von Neumann equation is applied to energy transfer dynamics. • Noise generation methods for dealing with exciton in FMO complexes are proposed. • Structured spectral densities could better support coherent population dynamics. - Abstract: A stochastic Liouville–von Neumann approach to solving a spin-boson model is applied to electronic energy transfer in Fenna–Matthews–Olson (FMO) complexes as a case study of the dynamics in biological systems. We modify a noise generation method to treat an experimentally obtained highly structured spectral density. By considering the population dynamics in a two-site system with a model structured spectral density, we numerically observe two kinds of coherent motions associated with inter-site coupling and system–bath coupling, the latter of which is mainly attributed to the peak structure of the spectral density

  13. Quantum coherence spectroscopy reveals complex dynamics in bacterial light-harvesting complex 2 (LH2).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harel, Elad; Engel, Gregory S

    2012-01-17

    Light-harvesting antenna complexes transfer energy from sunlight to photosynthetic reaction centers where charge separation drives cellular metabolism. The process through which pigments transfer excitation energy involves a complex choreography of coherent and incoherent processes mediated by the surrounding protein and solvent environment. The recent discovery of coherent dynamics in photosynthetic light-harvesting antennae has motivated many theoretical models exploring effects of interference in energy transfer phenomena. In this work, we provide experimental evidence of long-lived quantum coherence between the spectrally separated B800 and B850 rings of the light-harvesting complex 2 (LH2) of purple bacteria. Spectrally resolved maps of the detuning, dephasing, and the amplitude of electronic coupling between excitons reveal that different relaxation pathways act in concert for optimal transfer efficiency. Furthermore, maps of the phase of the signal suggest that quantum mechanical interference between different energy transfer pathways may be important even at ambient temperature. Such interference at a product state has already been shown to enhance the quantum efficiency of transfer in theoretical models of closed loop systems such as LH2.

  14. Linking animal population dynamics to alterations in foraging behaviour

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Sibly, Richard; Tougaard, Jakob

    Background/Question/Methods The survival of animal populations is strongly influenced by the individuals’ ability to forage efficiently, yet there are few studies of how populations respond when disturbances cause animals to deviate from their natural foraging behavior. Animals that respond...... that are increasingly exposed to noise from ships, wind turbines, etc. In the present study we investigate how the dynamics of the harbor porpoise population (Phocoena phocoena) in the inner Danish waters is influenced by disturbances using an agent- based simulation model. In the model animal movement, and hence...... the animals’ ability to forage efficiently and to sustain their energy intake, is influenced by noise emitted from wind turbines and ships. The energy levels in turn affect their survival. The fine-scale movements of the simulated animals was governed by a spatial memory, which allowed the model to produce...

  15. Complex Dynamics in Nonequilibrium Economics and Chemistry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Kehong

    Complex dynamics provides a new approach in dealing with economic complexity. We study interactively the empirical and theoretical aspects of business cycles. The way of exploring complexity is similar to that in the study of an oscillatory chemical system (BZ system)--a model for modeling complex behavior. We contribute in simulating qualitatively the complex periodic patterns observed from the controlled BZ experiments to narrow the gap between modeling and experiment. The gap between theory and reality is much wider in economics, which involves studies of human expectations and decisions, the essential difference from natural sciences. Our empirical and theoretical studies make substantial progress in closing this gap. With the help from the new development in nonequilibrium physics, i.e., the complex spectral theory, we advance our technique in detecting characteristic time scales from empirical economic data. We obtain correlation resonances, which give oscillating modes with decays for correlation decomposition, from different time series including S&P 500, M2, crude oil spot prices, and GNP. The time scales found are strikingly compatible with business experiences and other studies in business cycles. They reveal the non-Markovian nature of coherent markets. The resonances enhance the evidence of economic chaos obtained by using other tests. The evolving multi-humped distributions produced by the moving-time -window technique reveal the nonequilibrium nature of economic behavior. They reproduce the American economic history of booms and busts. The studies seem to provide a way out of the debate on chaos versus noise and unify the cyclical and stochastic approaches in explaining business fluctuations. Based on these findings and new expectation formulation, we construct a business cycle model which gives qualitatively compatible patterns to those found empirically. The soft-bouncing oscillator model provides a better alternative than the harmonic oscillator

  16. Turkey’s Population Dynamics As A Candidate Country For EU Membership

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harun Uçak

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Literally, it has been accepted that one of the major obstacles to Turkey’s EU membership is in population term. There has not been any enlargement process as large as Turkey’s population as a single state in EU history before. The enlargement in 2004 which includes 10 states involved 74 million people as whole member states while Turkey’s population is 72 million inhabitants in 2007 data which is only lower than Germany’s population in all EU member states. Thus, Turkey's accession would be different from previous enlargements because of the combined impact of high population. This study compares the population dynamics, working conditions, minimum wage rates and main macroeconomic indicators between Turkey and EU member states. Turkey has young generations compared to EU countries. In the comparison of age groups proportion in total population, 0-19 age group %21,9 in EU 27 and %36,5 in Turkey, 20-39 age group is %28 in EU 27 and %34,3 in Turkey, 40-59 age group is %27,9 in EU and %20,9 in Turkey, 60 and above age group is %22,1 in EU and %9,5 in Turkey. Thus, population dynamics of Turkey could make a contribution to offsetting the ageing of EU 27 societies if the membership would occur in the future. However, minimum wage rates in Turkey are lower than many EU member states but generally higher than EU member states located in Central and Eastern Europe. Thus, immigration possibilities from Turkey can be expected to Western European Countries, but not the same direction to Central and Eastern Europe Countries. Furthermore, the process in macroeconomic indicators will be a determinant in immigration expectations while Turkey’s GDP has been grown faster than EU level recently.

  17. Heat exposure in cities: combining the dynamics of temperature and population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, L.; Wilhelmi, O.; Uejio, C. K.

    2017-12-01

    Assessment of human exposure to extreme heat requires the distributions of temperature and population. However, both variables are dynamic, thus presenting many challenges in capturing temperature and population patterns spatially and over time in an urban context. This study aims to improve the understanding of spatiotemporal patterns of urban population exposure to heat, taking Chicago, USA as an example. We estimate the hourly, geographically variable, population distribution considering commute of workers and students in a regular weekday and analyze the diurnal air temperature patterns during different meteorological conditions from satellite observations. The results show a relatively larger temperature increase in less urbanized areas during extreme heat events (EHEs), resulting in a spatially homogeneous temperature distribution over Chicago Metropolitan area. A lake cooling effect is weaker during EHEs. Population dynamics due to daily commute determine higher population density in more urbanized areas during daytime. The city-wide analysis reveals that the exposure is more sensitive to the nighttime temperature increases, and EHEs enhance this sensitivity. The high exposure hotspots are identified at the northwest Chicago, Cicero and Oak Park areas, where the influence from Lake Michigan is weakened, while the spatial extent of high outdoor exposure areas varies diurnally. This study's findings have potential to better inform general heat mitigation strategies during hot summer months and facilitate emergency response during EHEs. Availability of remotely-sensed temperature observations as well as the workers and students commute-adjusted population data allows for the adoption of this study's methodology in other major metropolitan areas. A better understanding of space-time patterns of urban population's exposure to heat will further enable local decision makers to mitigate extreme heat health risks and develop more targeted heat preparedness and

  18. State-dependent neutral delay equations from population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbarossa, M V; Hadeler, K P; Kuttler, C

    2014-10-01

    A novel class of state-dependent delay equations is derived from the balance laws of age-structured population dynamics, assuming that birth rates and death rates, as functions of age, are piece-wise constant and that the length of the juvenile phase depends on the total adult population size. The resulting class of equations includes also neutral delay equations. All these equations are very different from the standard delay equations with state-dependent delay since the balance laws require non-linear correction factors. These equations can be written as systems for two variables consisting of an ordinary differential equation (ODE) and a generalized shift, a form suitable for numerical calculations. It is shown that the neutral equation (and the corresponding ODE--shift system) is a limiting case of a system of two standard delay equations.

  19. Seasonal dynamics of snail populations in coastal Kenya: Model calibration and snail control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurarie, D.; King, C. H.; Yoon, N.; Wang, X.; Alsallaq, R.

    2017-10-01

    A proper snail population model is important for accurately predicting Schistosoma transmission. Field data shows that the overall snail population and that of shedding snails have a strong pattern of seasonal variation. Because human hosts are infected by the cercariae released from shedding snails, the abundance of the snail population sets ultimate limits on human infection. For developing a predictive dynamic model of schistosome infection and control strategies we need realistic snail population dynamics. Here we propose two such models based on underlying environmental factors and snail population biology. The models consist of two-stage (young-adult) populations with resource-dependent reproduction, survival, maturation. The key input in the system is seasonal rainfall which creates snail habitats and resources (small vegetation). The models were tested, calibrated and validated using dataset collected in Msambweni (coastal Kenya). Seasonal rainfall in Msambweni is highly variable with intermittent wet - dry seasons. Typical snail patterns follow precipitation peaks with 2-4-month time-lag. Our models are able to reproduce such seasonal variability over extended period of time (3-year study). We applied them to explore the optimal seasonal timing for implementing snail control.

  20. Environmental controls, oceanography and population dynamics of pathogens and harmful algal blooms: connecting sources to human exposure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minnett Peter

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Coupled physical-biological models are capable of linking the complex interactions between environmental factors and physical hydrodynamics to simulate the growth, toxicity and transport of infectious pathogens and harmful algal blooms (HABs. Such simulations can be used to assess and predict the impact of pathogens and HABs on human health. Given the widespread and increasing reliance of coastal communities on aquatic systems for drinking water, seafood and recreation, such predictions are critical for making informed resource management decisions. Here we identify three challenges to making this connection between pathogens/HABs and human health: predicting concentrations and toxicity; identifying the spatial and temporal scales of population and ecosystem interactions; and applying the understanding of population dynamics of pathogens/HABs to management strategies. We elaborate on the need to meet each of these challenges, describe how modeling approaches can be used and discuss strategies for moving forward in addressing these challenges.

  1. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

  2. Population Model with a Dynamic Food Supply

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickman, Ronald; da Silva Nascimento, Jonas

    2009-09-01

    We propose a simple population model including the food supply as a dynamic variable. In the model, survival of an organism depends on a certain minimum rate of food consumption; a higher rate of consumption is required for reproduction. We investigate the stationary behavior under steady food input, and the transient behavior of growth and decay when food is present initially but is not replenished. Under a periodic food supply, the system exhibits period-doubling bifurcations and chaos in certain ranges of the reproduction rate. Bifurcations and chaos are favored by a slow reproduction rate and a long period of food-supply oscillation.

  3. Modularity and the spread of perturbations in complex dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolchinsky, Artemy; Gates, Alexander J; Rocha, Luis M

    2015-12-01

    We propose a method to decompose dynamical systems based on the idea that modules constrain the spread of perturbations. We find partitions of system variables that maximize "perturbation modularity," defined as the autocovariance of coarse-grained perturbed trajectories. The measure effectively separates the fast intramodular from the slow intermodular dynamics of perturbation spreading (in this respect, it is a generalization of the "Markov stability" method of network community detection). Our approach captures variation of modular organization across different system states, time scales, and in response to different kinds of perturbations: aspects of modularity which are all relevant to real-world dynamical systems. It offers a principled alternative to detecting communities in networks of statistical dependencies between system variables (e.g., "relevance networks" or "functional networks"). Using coupled logistic maps, we demonstrate that the method uncovers hierarchical modular organization planted in a system's coupling matrix. Additionally, in homogeneously coupled map lattices, it identifies the presence of self-organized modularity that depends on the initial state, dynamical parameters, and type of perturbations. Our approach offers a powerful tool for exploring the modular organization of complex dynamical systems.

  4. Flow-pattern identification and nonlinear dynamics of gas-liquid two-phase flow in complex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zhongke; Jin, Ningde

    2009-06-01

    The identification of flow pattern is a basic and important issue in multiphase systems. Because of the complexity of phase interaction in gas-liquid two-phase flow, it is difficult to discern its flow pattern objectively. In this paper, we make a systematic study on the vertical upward gas-liquid two-phase flow using complex network. Three unique network construction methods are proposed to build three types of networks, i.e., flow pattern complex network (FPCN), fluid dynamic complex network (FDCN), and fluid structure complex network (FSCN). Through detecting the community structure of FPCN by the community-detection algorithm based on K -mean clustering, useful and interesting results are found which can be used for identifying five vertical upward gas-liquid two-phase flow patterns. To investigate the dynamic characteristics of gas-liquid two-phase flow, we construct 50 FDCNs under different flow conditions, and find that the power-law exponent and the network information entropy, which are sensitive to the flow pattern transition, can both characterize the nonlinear dynamics of gas-liquid two-phase flow. Furthermore, we construct FSCN and demonstrate how network statistic can be used to reveal the fluid structure of gas-liquid two-phase flow. In this paper, from a different perspective, we not only introduce complex network theory to the study of gas-liquid two-phase flow but also indicate that complex network may be a powerful tool for exploring nonlinear time series in practice.

  5. Population dynamics of Trichuris suis in trickle-infected pigs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nejsum, P; Thamsborg, S M; Petersen, H H; Kringel, H; Fredholm, M; Roepstorff, A

    2009-05-01

    The population dynamics of Trichuris suis in pigs was studied during long-term experimental infections. Twenty-three 10-week-old pigs were inoculated with 5 T. suis eggs/kg/day. Seven, 8, and 8 pigs were necropsied at weeks 4, 8, and 14 post-start of infection (p.i.), respectively. The median numbers of worms in the colon were 538 (min-max: 277-618), 332 (14-1140) and 0 (0-4) at 4, 8, and 14 weeks p.i. respectively, suggesting an increased aggregation of the worms with time and acquisition of nearly sterile immunity. The serum levels of T. suis specific antibodies (IgG1, IgG2 and IgA) peaked at week 8 p.i. By week 14 p.i. the IgG2 and IgA antibody levels remained significantly elevated above the level of week 0. The population dynamics of T. suis trickle infections in pigs is discussed with focus on interpretation of diagnostic and epidemiological data of pigs, the use of pigs as a model for human Trichuris trichiura infections and the novel approach of using T. suis eggs in the treatment of patients with inflammatory bowel disease.

  6. Bifurcation and complex dynamics of a discrete-time predator-prey system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Sohel Rana

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigate the dynamics of a discrete-time predator-prey system of Holling-I type in the closed first quadrant R+2. The existence and local stability of positive fixed point of the discrete dynamical system is analyzed algebraically. It is shown that the system undergoes a flip bifurcation and a Neimark-Sacker bifurcation in the interior of R+2 by using bifurcation theory. It has been found that the dynamical behavior of the model is very sensitive to the parameter values and the initial conditions. Numerical simulation results not only show the consistence with the theoretical analysis but also display the new and interesting dynamic behaviors, including phase portraits, period-9, 10, 20-orbits, attracting invariant circle, cascade of period-doubling bifurcation from period-20 leading to chaos, quasi-periodic orbits, and sudden disappearance of the chaotic dynamics and attracting chaotic set. In particular, we observe that when the prey is in chaotic dynamic, the predator can tend to extinction or to a stable equilibrium. The Lyapunov exponents are numerically computed to characterize the complexity of the dynamical behaviors. The analysis and results in this paper are interesting in mathematics and biology.

  7. Population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii in cloud forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana

    2016-02-01

    Epiphytes are a major component of tropical montane cloud forests. Over-exploitation and forest loss and degradation affect remnant populations. In this study, we analysed the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliad Tillandsia butzii over a 2-y period in a tropical montane cloud forest fragment in southern Mexico. Matrix analysis revealed that the T. butzii population is likely to be stable at the study site. On average the λ value did not differ significantly from unity: λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.978 (0.936-1.001). λ was highly influenced by stasis, to a lesser extent by growth and only slightly by fecundity. Overall, adult plant stasis and phalanx growth habit played a fundamental role in population maintenance. T. butzii tolerance to xeric conditions may contribute to population stability in the studied region.

  8. Complex scattering dynamics and the quantum Hall effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trugman, S.A.

    1994-01-01

    We review both classical and quantum potential scattering in two dimensions in a magnetic field, with applications to the quantum Hall effect. Classical scattering is complex, due to the approach of scattering states to an infinite number of dynamically bound states. Quantum scattering follows the classical behavior rather closely, exhibiting sharp resonances in place of the classical bound states. Extended scatterers provide a quantitative explanation for the breakdown of the QHE at a comparatively small Hall voltage as seen by Kawaji et al., and possibly for noise effects

  9. Dynamic torsional motion of a diruthenium complex with four homo-catecholates and first synthesis of a diruthenium complex with mixed-catecholates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ho-Chol; Mochizuki, Katsunori; Kitagawa, Susumu

    2008-11-01

    Dynamic properties of a diruthenium complex with ligand-unsupported Ru-Ru triple bonds, Na 2[Ru 2(3,6-DTBCat) 4] ( 1), were studied using variable-temperature 1H NMR. Structural freedom derived from the ligand-unsupported structure leads to torsional motion about the Ru-Ru bonds in THF and in DMF. The observed solvent dependency corresponds to the electrostatic interactions between the diruthenium complex and Na + counter cations, which are sensitive to the polarity of solvents. In addition, a new diruthenium complex, [{Na(THF) 2(H 2O)}{Na(THF) 0.5(H 2O)}{Ru 2(3,6-DTBCat) 2(H 4Cat) 2}] ( 2·2.5THF·2H 2O), with a ligand-unsupported Ru-Ru bond surrounded by two different kinds of catecholate derivatives, has been synthesized and crystallographically characterized. The complex, which was characterized by single-crystal structural analysis, will provide an opportunity to investigate not only static molecular structures but also dynamic physicochemical properties in comparison with analogues containing four identical catecholate derivatives.

  10. Nonlinearities Lead to Qualitative Differences in Population Dynamics of Predator-Prey Systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Ameixa, Olga; Messelink, G. J.; Kindlmann, Pavel

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 4 (2013), e62530-e62530 E-ISSN 1932-6203 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA ČR(CZ) GEVOL/11/E036 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : nonlinear system * population density * population dynamics * predator * predator prey interaction * qualitative analysis Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 3.534, year: 2013

  11. Do farming practices influence population dynamics of rodents?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Massawe, A W; Rwamugira, W; Leirs, Herwig

    2007-01-01

    A capture-mark-recapture study was conducted in crop fields in Morogoro, Tanzania, to investigate how the population dynamics of multimammate field rats, Mastomys natalensis, was influenced by the commonly practised land preparation methods and cropping systems. Two land preparation methods (trac...... practices. In maize fields in Tanzania, the crop is most susceptible to damage by M. natalensis in the first 2 weeks after planting, and therefore, lower densities of rodents will result into lower crop damage in tractor ploughed fields....

  12. Complex dynamics of the generic and brand advertising strategies in duopoly

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qi Jie; Ding Yongsheng; Chen Liang

    2008-01-01

    By using the optimal profit adjusting strategies, a dynamic advertising competition model in duopoly is extended from Krishnamurthy's static model. Both generic and brand effects for advertising are considered. This model can create complex bifurcating and chaotic behavior for the generic advertising efforts, which lead to chaotic dynamics for the brand advertising and even for the whole system. The asymptotic properties of the symmetric system and the asymmetric system are also investigated, which reflect interactions between the two firms' advertising strategies and relationships between the brand and the generic advertising expenditures

  13. Complex dynamics of the generic and brand advertising strategies in duopoly

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qi Jie [College of Information Sciences and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051 (China)], E-mail: jieqi@dhu.edu.cn; Ding Yongsheng [College of Information Sciences and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051 (China)], E-mail: ysding@dhu.edu.cn; Chen Liang [College of Information Sciences and Technology, Donghua University, Shanghai 200051 (China)

    2008-04-15

    By using the optimal profit adjusting strategies, a dynamic advertising competition model in duopoly is extended from Krishnamurthy's static model. Both generic and brand effects for advertising are considered. This model can create complex bifurcating and chaotic behavior for the generic advertising efforts, which lead to chaotic dynamics for the brand advertising and even for the whole system. The asymptotic properties of the symmetric system and the asymmetric system are also investigated, which reflect interactions between the two firms' advertising strategies and relationships between the brand and the generic advertising expenditures.

  14. On the stochastic approach to marine population dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Ferrandis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this article is to deepen and structure the statistical basis of marine population dynamics. The starting point is the correspondence between the concepts of mortality, survival and lifetime distribution. This is the kernel of the possibilities that survival analysis techniques offer to marine population dynamics. A rigorous definition of survival and mortality based on their properties and their probabilistic versions is briefly presented. Some well established models for lifetime distribution, which generalise the usual simple exponential distribution, might be used with their corresponding survivals and mortalities. A critical review of some published models is also made, including original models proposed in the way opened by Caddy (1991 and Sparholt (1990, which allow for a continuously decreasing natural mortality. Considering these elements, the pure death process dealt with in the literature is used as a theoretical basis for the evolution of a marine cohort. The elaboration of this process is based on Chiang´s study of the probability distribution of the life table (Chiang, 1960 and provides specific structured models for stock evolution as a Markovian process. These models may introduce new ideas in the line of thinking developed by Gudmundsson (1987 and Sampson (1990 in order to model the evolution of a marine cohort by stochastic processes. The suitable approximation of these processes by means of Gaussian processes may allow theoretical and computational multivariate Gaussian analysis to be applied to the probabilistic treatment of fisheries issues. As a consequence, the necessary catch equation appears as a stochastic integral with respect to the mentioned Markovian process of the stock. The solution of this equation is available when the mortalities are proportional, hence the use of the proportional hazards model (Cox, 1959. The assumption of these proportional mortalities leads naturally to the construction of a

  15. Exploration of the dynamic properties of protein complexes predicted from spatially constrained protein-protein interaction networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eric A Yen

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Protein complexes are not static, but rather highly dynamic with subunits that undergo 1-dimensional diffusion with respect to each other. Interactions within protein complexes are modulated through regulatory inputs that alter interactions and introduce new components and deplete existing components through exchange. While it is clear that the structure and function of any given protein complex is coupled to its dynamical properties, it remains a challenge to predict the possible conformations that complexes can adopt. Protein-fragment Complementation Assays detect physical interactions between protein pairs constrained to ≤8 nm from each other in living cells. This method has been used to build networks composed of 1000s of pair-wise interactions. Significantly, these networks contain a wealth of dynamic information, as the assay is fully reversible and the proteins are expressed in their natural context. In this study, we describe a method that extracts this valuable information in the form of predicted conformations, allowing the user to explore the conformational landscape, to search for structures that correlate with an activity state, and estimate the abundance of conformations in the living cell. The generator is based on a Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation that uses the interaction dataset as input and is constrained by the physical resolution of the assay. We applied this method to an 18-member protein complex composed of the seven core proteins of the budding yeast Arp2/3 complex and 11 associated regulators and effector proteins. We generated 20,480 output structures and identified conformational states using principle component analysis. We interrogated the conformation landscape and found evidence of symmetry breaking, a mixture of likely active and inactive conformational states and dynamic exchange of the core protein Arc15 between core and regulatory components. Our method provides a novel tool for prediction and

  16. Successional changes in trophic interactions support a mechanistic model of post-fire population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Annabel L

    2018-01-01

    Models based on functional traits have limited power in predicting how animal populations respond to disturbance because they do not capture the range of demographic and biological factors that drive population dynamics, including variation in trophic interactions. I tested the hypothesis that successional changes in vegetation structure, which affected invertebrate abundance, would influence growth rates and body condition in the early-successional, insectivorous gecko Nephrurus stellatus. I captured geckos at 17 woodland sites spanning a succession gradient from 2 to 48 years post-fire. Body condition and growth rates were analysed as a function of the best-fitting fire-related predictor (invertebrate abundance or time since fire) with different combinations of the co-variates age, sex and location. Body condition in the whole population was positively affected by increasing invertebrate abundance and, in the adult population, this effect was most pronounced for females. There was strong support for a decline in growth rates in weight with time since fire. The results suggest that increased early-successional invertebrate abundance has filtered through to a higher trophic level with physiological benefits for insectivorous geckos. I integrated the new findings about trophic interactions into a general conceptual model of mechanisms underlying post-fire population dynamics based on a long-term research programme. The model highlights how greater food availability during early succession could drive rapid population growth by contributing to previously reported enhanced reproduction and dispersal. This study provides a framework to understand links between ecological and physiological traits underlying post-fire population dynamics.

  17. The dynamical complexity of optically injected semiconductor lasers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wieczorek, S.; Krauskopf, B.; Simpson, T.B.; Lenstra, D.

    2005-01-01

    This report presents a modern approach to the theoretical and experimental study of complex nonlinear behavior of a semiconductor laser with optical injection-an example of a widely applied and technologically relevant forced nonlinear oscillator. We show that the careful bifurcation analysis of a rate equation model yields (i) a deeper understanding of already studied physical phenomena, and (ii) the discovery of new dynamical effects, such as multipulse excitability. Different instabilities, cascades of bifurcations, multistability, and sudden chaotic transitions, which are often viewed as independent, are in fact logically connected into a consistent web of bifurcations via special points called organizing centers. This theoretical bifurcation analysis has predictive power, which manifests itself in good agreement with experimental measurements over a wide range of parameters and diversity of dynamics. While it is dealing with the specific system of an optically injected laser, our work constitutes the state-of-the-art in the understanding and modeling of a nonlinear physical system in general

  18. Dynamic of age structure and the number of population in Ozersk and affecting factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Panchenko, O.; Rtischeva, M.

    2000-01-01

    The aim of this work was an evaluation of the dynamics of age structure and population for the city of Ozyorsk, based in connection with creation of the nuclear plant Mayak, the 'first-born' of the Russian atomic industry. The obtained results indicate that since 1950 demographic processes in Ozyorsk were more favorable, in spite of fact that it was in this period workers of Mayak nuclear plant and population as a whole, got comparatively greater radiation doses than in the following years. However, dynamics the number of population has an unfavorable trend to reduce, connected with sharp worsening of social-economic situation in the town as a whole, as a result of the economic reforms in the country. Reduction of the number of population in the town is expressed by the negative natural growth and by reducing migration processes, which resulted in sharp decrease of the general growth of population, and in its stopping in 1998. (authors)

  19. Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu

    2017-04-27

    This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

  20. Dynamics of anion exchange of lanthanides in aqueous-organic complexing media

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sheveleva, I.V.; Bogatyrev, I.O.

    1987-01-01

    Effect of organic solvents (ethanol, acetone, acetonitrile) on change in kinetic parameters of the anion exchange process (anion-exchange column chromatography) of r.e.e. (europium and gadolinium) in complexing nitric acid media has been studied. It is established that complex LnA 4 anion is the only sorbing form of europium and gadolinium on anionite. When the organic component content of the solution being the same, the dynamic parameters of lanthanide exchange have higher values in aqueous-acetonitrile and aqueous-acetone media in comparison with aqueous-enthanol solutions of nitric acid. Lesser mobility of complex lanthanide anions in aqueous-alcoholic solutions can be explained by stronger solvation in the presence of solvents with higher acceptor properties

  1. EPR & Klein Paradoxes in Complex Hamiltonian Dynamics and Krein Space Quantization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payandeh, Farrin

    2015-07-01

    Negative energy states are applied in Krein space quantization approach to achieve a naturally renormalized theory. For example, this theory by taking the full set of Dirac solutions, could be able to remove the propagator Green function's divergences and automatically without any normal ordering, to vanish the expected value for vacuum state energy. However, since it is a purely mathematical theory, the results are under debate and some efforts are devoted to include more physics in the concept. Whereas Krein quantization is a pure mathematical approach, complex quantum Hamiltonian dynamics is based on strong foundations of Hamilton-Jacobi (H-J) equations and therefore on classical dynamics. Based on complex quantum Hamilton-Jacobi theory, complex spacetime is a natural consequence of including quantum effects in the relativistic mechanics, and is a bridge connecting the causality in special relativity and the non-locality in quantum mechanics, i.e. extending special relativity to the complex domain leads to relativistic quantum mechanics. So that, considering both relativistic and quantum effects, the Klein-Gordon equation could be derived as a special form of the Hamilton-Jacobi equation. Characterizing the complex time involved in an entangled energy state and writing the general form of energy considering quantum potential, two sets of positive and negative energies will be realized. The new states enable us to study the spacetime in a relativistic entangled “space-time” state leading to 12 extra wave functions than the four solutions of Dirac equation for a free particle. Arguing the entanglement of particle and antiparticle leads to a contradiction with experiments. So, in order to correct the results, along with a previous investigation [1], we realize particles and antiparticles as physical entities with positive energy instead of considering antiparticles with negative energy. As an application of modified descriptions for entangled (space

  2. Application of homotopy-perturbation method to nonlinear population dynamics models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chowdhury, M.S.H.; Hashim, I.; Abdulaziz, O.

    2007-01-01

    In this Letter, the homotopy-perturbation method (HPM) is employed to derive approximate series solutions of nonlinear population dynamics models. The nonlinear models considered are the multispecies Lotka-Volterra equations. The accuracy of this method is examined by comparison with the available exact and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method (RK4)

  3. CONNECTION BETWEEN DYNAMICALLY DERIVED INITIAL MASS FUNCTION NORMALIZATION AND STELLAR POPULATION PARAMETERS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDermid, Richard M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109 (Australia); Cappellari, Michele; Bayet, Estelle; Bureau, Martin; Davies, Roger L. [Sub-Department of Astrophysics, Department of Physics, University of Oxford, Denys Wilkinson Building, Keble Road, Oxford, OX1 3RH (United Kingdom); Alatalo, Katherine [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Blitz, Leo [Department of Astronomy, Campbell Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Bois, Maxime [Observatoire de Paris, LERMA and CNRS, 61 Av. de l' Observatoire, F-75014 Paris (France); Bournaud, Frédéric; Duc, Pierre-Alain [Laboratoire AIM Paris-Saclay, CEA/IRFU/SAp- CNRS-Université Paris Diderot, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex (France); Crocker, Alison F. [Ritter Astrophysical Observatory, University of Toledo, Toledo, OH 43606 (United States); Davis, Timothy A.; De Zeeuw, P. T.; Emsellem, Eric; Kuntschner, Harald [European Southern Observatory, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 2, D-85748 Garching (Germany); Khochfar, Sadegh [Institute for Astronomy, University of Edinburgh, Royal Observatory, Edinburgh, EH9 3HJ (United Kingdom); Krajnović, Davor [Leibniz-Institut für Astrophysik Potsdam (AIP), An der Sternwarte 16, D-14482 Potsdam (Germany); Morganti, Raffaella; Oosterloo, Tom [Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), Postbus 2, 7990 AA Dwingeloo (Netherlands); Naab, Thorsten, E-mail: richard.mcdermid@mq.edu.au [Max-Planck-Institut für Astrophysik, Karl-Schwarzschild-Str. 1, D-85741 Garching (Germany); and others

    2014-09-10

    We report on empirical trends between the dynamically determined stellar initial mass function (IMF) and stellar population properties for a complete, volume-limited sample of 260 early-type galaxies from the ATLAS{sup 3D} project. We study trends between our dynamically derived IMF normalization α{sub dyn} ≡ (M/L){sub stars}/(M/L){sub Salp} and absorption line strengths, and interpret these via single stellar population-equivalent ages, abundance ratios (measured as [α/Fe]), and total metallicity, [Z/H]. We find that old and alpha-enhanced galaxies tend to have on average heavier (Salpeter-like) mass normalization of the IMF, but stellar population does not appear to be a good predictor of the IMF, with a large range of α{sub dyn} at a given population parameter. As a result, we find weak α{sub dyn}-[α/Fe] and α{sub dyn} –Age correlations and no significant α{sub dyn} –[Z/H] correlation. The observed trends appear significantly weaker than those reported in studies that measure the IMF normalization via the low-mass star demographics inferred through stellar spectral analysis.

  4. Discrete two-sex models of population dynamics: On modelling the mating function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessa-Gomes, Carmen; Legendre, Stéphane; Clobert, Jean

    2010-09-01

    Although sexual reproduction has long been a central subject of theoretical ecology, until recently its consequences for population dynamics were largely overlooked. This is now changing, and many studies have addressed this issue, showing that when the mating system is taken into account, the population dynamics depends on the relative abundance of males and females, and is non-linear. Moreover, sexual reproduction increases the extinction risk, namely due to the Allee effect. Nevertheless, different studies have identified diverse potential consequences, depending on the choice of mating function. In this study, we investigate the consequences of three alternative mating functions that are frequently used in discrete population models: the minimum; the harmonic mean; and the modified harmonic mean. We consider their consequences at three levels: on the probability that females will breed; on the presence and intensity of the Allee effect; and on the extinction risk. When we consider the harmonic mean, the number of times the individuals of the least abundant sex mate exceeds their mating potential, which implies that with variable sex-ratios the potential reproductive rate is no longer under the modeller's control. Consequently, the female breeding probability exceeds 1 whenever the sex-ratio is male-biased, which constitutes an obvious problem. The use of the harmonic mean is thus only justified if we think that this parameter should be re-defined in order to represent the females' breeding rate and the fact that females may reproduce more than once per breeding season. This phenomenon buffers the Allee effect, and reduces the extinction risk. However, when we consider birth-pulse populations, such a phenomenon is implausible because the number of times females can reproduce per birth season is limited. In general, the minimum or modified harmonic mean mating functions seem to be more suitable for assessing the impact of mating systems on population dynamics.

  5. The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

  6. The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

    2018-05-01

    In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

  7. Controlling Uncertainty: A Review of Human Behavior in Complex Dynamic Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osman, Magda

    2010-01-01

    Complex dynamic control (CDC) tasks are a type of problem-solving environment used for examining many cognitive activities (e.g., attention, control, decision making, hypothesis testing, implicit learning, memory, monitoring, planning, and problem solving). Because of their popularity, there have been many findings from diverse domains of research…

  8. Analysis of Dynamic Complexity of the Cyber Security Ecosystem of Colombia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Angélica Flórez

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents two proposals for the analysis of the complexity of the Cyber security Ecosystem of Colombia (CEC. This analysis shows the available knowledge about entities engaged in cyber security in Colombia and the relationships between them, which allow an understanding of the synergy between the different existing components. The complexity of the CEC is detailed from the view of the Influence Diagram of System Dynamics and the Domain Diagram of Software Engineering. The resulting model makes cyber security evident as a strategic component of national security.

  9. Structural elucidation of dendritic host-guest complexes by X-ray crystallography and molecular dynamics simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chang, T.; Pieterse, K.; Broeren, M.A.C.; Kooijman, H.; Spek, A.L.; Hilbers, P.A.J.; Meijer, E.W.

    2007-01-01

    The multiple monovalent binding of adamantyl-urea poly(propyleneimine) dendrimers with carboxylic acid-urea guests was investigated using molecular dynamics simulations and X-ray crystallography to better understand the structure and behavior of the dynamic multivalent complex in solution. The

  10. Transients drive the demographic dynamics of plant populations in variable environments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    McDonald, Jenni L; Stott, Iain; Townley, Stuart

    2016-01-01

    clear patterns related to growth form. We find a surprising tendency for plant populations to boom rather than bust in response to temporal changes in vital rates and that stochastic growth rates increase with increasing tendency to boom. Synthesis. Transient dynamics contribute significantly...

  11. Recovery time after localized perturbations in complex dynamical networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mitra, Chiranjit; Kittel, Tim; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V; Choudhary, Anshul

    2017-01-01

    Maintaining the synchronous motion of dynamical systems interacting on complex networks is often critical to their functionality. However, real-world networked dynamical systems operating synchronously are prone to random perturbations driving the system to arbitrary states within the corresponding basin of attraction, thereby leading to epochs of desynchronized dynamics with a priori unknown durations. Thus, it is highly relevant to have an estimate of the duration of such transient phases before the system returns to synchrony, following a random perturbation to the dynamical state of any particular node of the network. We address this issue here by proposing the framework of single-node recovery time (SNRT) which provides an estimate of the relative time scales underlying the transient dynamics of the nodes of a network during its restoration to synchrony. We utilize this in differentiating the particularly slow nodes of the network from the relatively fast nodes, thus identifying the critical nodes which when perturbed lead to significantly enlarged recovery time of the system before resuming synchronized operation. Further, we reveal explicit relationships between the SNRT values of a network, and its global relaxation time when starting all the nodes from random initial conditions. Earlier work on relaxation time generally focused on investigating its dependence on macroscopic topological properties of the respective network. However, we employ the proposed concept for deducing microscopic relationships between topological features of nodes and their respective SNRT values. The framework of SNRT is further extended to a measure of resilience of the different nodes of a networked dynamical system. We demonstrate the potential of SNRT in networks of Rössler oscillators on paradigmatic topologies and a model of the power grid of the United Kingdom with second-order Kuramoto-type nodal dynamics illustrating the conceivable practical applicability of the proposed

  12. Recovery time after localized perturbations in complex dynamical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, Chiranjit; Kittel, Tim; Choudhary, Anshul; Kurths, Jürgen; Donner, Reik V.

    2017-10-01

    Maintaining the synchronous motion of dynamical systems interacting on complex networks is often critical to their functionality. However, real-world networked dynamical systems operating synchronously are prone to random perturbations driving the system to arbitrary states within the corresponding basin of attraction, thereby leading to epochs of desynchronized dynamics with a priori unknown durations. Thus, it is highly relevant to have an estimate of the duration of such transient phases before the system returns to synchrony, following a random perturbation to the dynamical state of any particular node of the network. We address this issue here by proposing the framework of single-node recovery time (SNRT) which provides an estimate of the relative time scales underlying the transient dynamics of the nodes of a network during its restoration to synchrony. We utilize this in differentiating the particularly slow nodes of the network from the relatively fast nodes, thus identifying the critical nodes which when perturbed lead to significantly enlarged recovery time of the system before resuming synchronized operation. Further, we reveal explicit relationships between the SNRT values of a network, and its global relaxation time when starting all the nodes from random initial conditions. Earlier work on relaxation time generally focused on investigating its dependence on macroscopic topological properties of the respective network. However, we employ the proposed concept for deducing microscopic relationships between topological features of nodes and their respective SNRT values. The framework of SNRT is further extended to a measure of resilience of the different nodes of a networked dynamical system. We demonstrate the potential of SNRT in networks of Rössler oscillators on paradigmatic topologies and a model of the power grid of the United Kingdom with second-order Kuramoto-type nodal dynamics illustrating the conceivable practical applicability of the proposed

  13. Fortune favours the brave: Movement responses shape demographic dynamics in strongly competing populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, Jonathan R; Petrovskii, Sergei V

    2017-05-07

    Animal movement is a key mechanism for shaping population dynamics. The effect of interactions between competing animals on a population's survival has been studied for many decades. However, interactions also affect an animal's subsequent movement decisions. Despite this, the indirect effect of these decisions on animal survival is much less well-understood. Here, we incorporate movement responses to foreign animals into a model of two competing populations, where inter-specific competition is greater than intra-specific competition. When movement is diffusive, the travelling wave moves from the stronger population to the weaker. However, by incorporating behaviourally induced directed movement towards the stronger population, the weaker one can slow the travelling wave down, even reversing its direction. Hence movement responses can switch the predictions of traditional mechanistic models. Furthermore, when environmental heterogeneity is combined with aggressive movement strategies, it is possible for spatially segregated co-existence to emerge. In this situation, the spatial patterns of the competing populations have the unusual feature that they are slightly out-of-phase with the environmental patterns. Finally, incorporating dynamic movement responses can also enable stable co-existence in a homogeneous environment, giving a new mechanism for spatially segregated co-existence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Reliability of complex systems under dynamic conditions: A Bayesian multivariate degradation perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Weiwen; Li, Yan-Feng; Mi, Jinhua; Yu, Le; Huang, Hong-Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Degradation analysis is critical to reliability assessment and operational management of complex systems. Two types of assumptions are often adopted for degradation analysis: (1) single degradation indicator and (2) constant external factors. However, modern complex systems are generally characterized as multiple functional and suffered from multiple failure modes due to dynamic operating conditions. In this paper, Bayesian degradation analysis of complex systems with multiple degradation indicators under dynamic conditions is investigated. Three practical engineering-driven issues are addressed: (1) to model various combinations of degradation indicators, a generalized multivariate hybrid degradation process model is proposed, which subsumes both monotonic and non-monotonic degradation processes models as special cases, (2) to study effects of external factors, two types of dynamic covariates are incorporated jointly, which include both environmental conditions and operating profiles, and (3) to facilitate degradation based reliability analysis, a serial of Bayesian strategy is constructed, which covers parameter estimation, factor-related degradation prediction, and unit-specific remaining useful life assessment. Finally, degradation analysis of a type of heavy machine tools is presented to demonstrate the application and performance of the proposed method. A comparison of the proposed model with a traditional model is studied as well in the example. - Highlights: • A generalized multivariate hybrid degradation process model is introduced. • Various types of dependent degradation processes can be modeled coherently. • The effects of environmental conditions and operating profiles are investigated. • Unit-specific RUL assessment is implemented through a two-step Bayesian method.

  15. Universal dynamics of complex adaptive systems: Gauge theory of things alive

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mack, G.

    1994-04-01

    A universal dynamics of objects and their relations - a kind of ''universal chemistry'' - is discussed which satisfies general principles of locality and relativity. Einsteins theory of gravitation and the gauge theory of elementary particles are prototypes, but complex adaptive systems - anything that is alive in the widest sense - fall under the same paradigma. Frustration and gauge symmetry arise naturally in this context. Besides a nondissipative deterministic dynamics, which is thought to operate at a fundamental levle, a Thermo-Dynamics in sense of Prigogine is introduced by adding a diffusion process. It introduces irreversibility and entropy production. It equilibrates the chaotic local model of the time development (only) and is designed to be undetectable under continued observation with given finite measuring accuracy. Compositeness and the development of structure can be described in this framework. The existence of a critical equilibrium state may be postulated which is invariant under the dynamics. But it is usually not reached in a finite time from a given starting configuration, because local dynamics suffers from critical slowing down, especially in the presence of frustration. (orig.)

  16. Stochastic dynamics of complex systems: from glasses to evolution (series on complexity science)

    CERN Document Server

    Sibani, Paolo

    2013-01-01

    Dynamical evolution over long time scales is a prominent feature of all the systems we intuitively think of as complex - for example, ecosystems, the brain or the economy. In physics, the term ageing is used for this type of slow change, occurring over time scales much longer than the patience, or indeed the lifetime, of the observer. The main focus of this book is on the stochastic processes which cause ageing, and the surprising fact that the ageing dynamics of systems which are very different at the microscopic level can be treated in similar ways. The first part of this book provides the necessary mathematical and computational tools and the second part describes the intuition needed to deal with these systems. Some of the first few chapters have been covered in several other books, but the emphasis and selection of the topics reflect both the authors' interests and the overall theme of the book. The second part contains an introduction to the scientific literature and deals in some detail with the desc...

  17. Complexity, Sustainability, Justice, and Meaning: Chronological Versus Dynamical Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Horacio Velasco

    2009-11-01

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    When nonlinear dynamics came to be complemented with semiotic modulation through the implement of symbol-mediated language (a complementation subsequently termed semantic closure as first instantiated through the communicating (as opposed  to merely dynamically interacting molecular complexes of the cell, what can be termed semiotic hysteresis was born. The paper attempts to show that indefinitely evolving complexity, sustainability, justice, and meaning are indissolubly bound with chronological time in the sense of semiotic hysteresis (as afforded initially by non-cognitive semantic closure and subsequently, at least one hopes, by cognitive semantic closure: This semiotic hysteresis yields the indefinite evolutionary time of the living condition—including culture.

     

  18. Without bounds a scientific canvas of nonlinearity and complex dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Ryazantsev, Yuri; Starov, Victor; Huang, Guo-Xiang; Chetverikov, Alexander; Arena, Paolo; Nepomnyashchy, Alex; Ferrus, Alberto; Morozov, Eugene

    2013-01-01

    Bringing together over fifty contributions on all aspects of nonlinear and complex dynamics, this impressive topical collection is both a scientific and personal tribute, on the occasion of his 70th birthday, by many outstanding colleagues in the broad fields of research pursued by Prof. Manuel G Velarde. The topics selected reflect the research areas covered by the famous Instituto Pluridisciplinar at the Universidad Complutense of Madrid, which he co-founded over two decades ago, and include: fluid physics and related nonlinear phenomena at interfaces and in other geometries, wetting and spreading dynamics, geophysical and astrophysical flows, and novel aspects of electronic transport in anharmonic lattices, as well as topics in neurodynamics and robotics.

  19. Dynamic polarizability of a complex atom in strong laser fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rapoport, L.P.; Klinskikh, A.F.; Mordvinov, V.V.

    1997-01-01

    An asymptotic expansion of the dynamic polarizability of a complex atom in a strong circularly polarized light field is found for the case of high frequencies. The self-consistent approximation of the Hartree-Fock type for the ''atom+field'' system is developed, within the framework of which a numerical calculation of the dynamic polarizability of Ne, Kr, and Ar atoms in a strong radiation field is performed. The strong field effect is shown to manifest itself not only in a change of the energy spectrum and the character of behavior of the wave functions of atomic electrons, but also in a modification of the one-electron self-consistent potential for the atom in the field

  20. Probing the dynamics of complexed local anesthetics via neutron scattering spectroscopy and DFT calculations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Longo Martins, Murillo; Eckert, Juergen; Jacobsen, Henrik

    2017-01-01

    Since potential changes in the dynamics and mobility of drugs upon complexation for delivery may affect their ultimate efficacy, we have investigated the dynamics of two local anesthetic molecules, bupivacaine (BVC, C18H28N2O) and ropivacaine (RVC, C17H26N2O), in both their crystalline forms...