WorldWideScience

Sample records for comparative population growth

  1. Population growth and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayana, D L

    1984-01-01

    This discussion of the issues relating to the problem posed by population explosion in the developing countries and economic growth in the contemporary world covers the following: predictions of economic and social trends; the Malthusian theory of population; the classical or stationary theory of population; the medical triage model; ecological disaster; the Global 2000 study; the limits to growth; critiques of the Limits to Growth model; nonrenewable resources; food and agriculture; population explosion and stabilization; space and ocean colonization; and the limits perspective. The Limits to Growth model, a general equilibrium anti-growth model, is the gloomiest economic model ever constructed. None of the doomsday models, the Malthusian theory, the classical stationary state, the neo-Malthusian medical triage model, the Global 2000 study, are so far reaching in their consequences. The course of events that followed the publication of the "Limits to Growth" in 1972 in the form of 2 oil shocks, food shock, pollution shock, and price shock seemed to bear out formally the gloomy predictions of the thesis with a remarkable speed. The 12 years of economic experience and the knowledge of resource trends postulate that even if the economic pressures visualized by the model are at work they are neither far reaching nor so drastic. Appropriate action can solve them. There are several limitations to the Limits to Growth model. The central theme of the model, which is overshoot and collapse, is unlikely to be the course of events. The model is too aggregative to be realistic. It exaggerates the ecological disaster arising out of the exponential growth of population and industry. The gross underestimation of renewable resources is a basic flaw of the model. The most critical weakness of the model is its gross underestimation of the historical trend of technological progress and the technological possiblities within industry and agriculture. The model does correctly emphasize

  2. Modeling Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCormick, Bonnie

    2009-01-01

    The concept of population growth patterns is a key component of understanding evolution by natural selection and population dynamics in ecosystems. The National Science Education Standards (NSES) include standards related to population growth in sections on biological evolution, interdependence of organisms, and science in personal and social…

  3. Hispanic Population Growth and Rural Income Inequality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parrado, Emilio A.; Kandel, William A.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze the relationship between Hispanic population growth and changes in U.S. rural income inequality from 1990 through 2000. Applying comparative approaches used for urban areas we disentangle Hispanic population growth's contribution to inequality by comparing and statistically modeling changes in the family income Gini coefficient across…

  4. Population growth rates in perfect contraceptive populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Udry, J R; Bauman, K E; Chase, C L

    1973-07-01

    Abstract Eventually, world population must cease to grow. In many countries attempts are made to decrease population growth by providing family planning services to all who want to prevent pregnancies. In this paper we use the concept 'perfect contraceptive population',(1) - a population in which no unwanted births occur - to derive estimates of the maximum contribution that prevention of unwanted births might make toward attaining a zero rate of natural increase in population.

  5. Global Analysis of Population Growth and Decline

    OpenAIRE

    Sneddon, Mark; Pearse, William D.

    2017-01-01

    Species of plants and animals have populations that are declining at a rapid rate and possibly face extinction. To combat this decline, we must first understand where and why species are declining. We compared known species population growth rates in the COMPADRE (7024 different plant populations) and COMADRE (1927 different animal populations) databases to a variety of possible factors and other databases.

  6. City Population Growth and Economic Growth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Freire-Gibb, L. Carlos

    2008-01-01

    This article looks at the relationship between city population growth (intimately related to population proximity), and economic development. The hypothesis is that wherever dynamic and inclusive networks exist, there are more opportunities for economic development in this place. When these types...

  7. Determinants of human population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Qiang, Ren

    2002-09-29

    The 20th century has seen unprecedented growth of the human population on this planet. While at the beginning of the century the Earth had an estimated 1.6 billion inhabitants, this number grew to 6.1 billion by the end of the century, and further significant growth is a near certainty. This paper tries to summarize what factors lie behind this extraordinary expansion of the human population and what population growth we can expect for the future. It discusses the concept of demographic transition and the preconditions for a lasting secular fertility decline. Recent fertility declines in all parts of the world now make it likely that human population growth will come to an end over the course of this century, but in parts of the developing world significant population growth is still to be expected over the coming decades. The slowing of population growth through declining birth rates, together with still increasing life expectancy, will result in a strong ageing of population age structure. Finally, this paper presents a global level systematic analysis of the relationship between population density on the one hand, and growth and fertility rates on the other. This analysis indicates that in addition to the well-studied social and economic determinants, population density also presents a significant factor for the levels and trends of human birth rates.

  8. Population growth and infant mortality

    OpenAIRE

    Fabella, Christina

    2008-01-01

    The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

  9. Determinants of human population growth.

    OpenAIRE

    Lutz, Wolfgang; Qiang, Ren

    2002-01-01

    The 20th century has seen unprecedented growth of the human population on this planet. While at the beginning of the century the Earth had an estimated 1.6 billion inhabitants, this number grew to 6.1 billion by the end of the century, and further significant growth is a near certainty. This paper tries to summarize what factors lie behind this extraordinary expansion of the human population and what population growth we can expect for the future. It discusses the concept of demographic trans...

  10. Canada's population: growth and dualism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaujot, R P

    1978-04-01

    In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

  11. Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Sheldon P.

    2009-01-01

    The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

  12. Population growth and its implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Badii, M. H.

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available

  13. Lower virus infections in Varroa destructor-infested and uninfested brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera) of a low mite population growth colony compared to a high mite population growth colony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emsen, Berna; Hamiduzzaman, Mollah Md; Goodwin, Paul H; Guzman-Novoa, Ernesto

    2015-01-01

    A comparison was made of the prevalence and relative quantification of deformed wing virus (DWV), Israeli acute paralysis virus (IAPV), black queen cell virus (BQCV), Kashmir bee virus (KBV), acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV) and sac brood virus (SBV) in brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera) from colonies selected for high (HMP) and low (LMP) Varroa destructor mite population growth. Two viruses, ABPV and SBV, were never detected. For adults without mite infestation, DWV, IAPV, BQCV and KBV were detected in the HMP colony; however, only BQCV was detected in the LMP colony but at similar levels as in the HMP colony. With mite infestation, the four viruses were detected in adults of the HMP colony but all at higher amounts than in the LMP colony. For brood without mite infestation, DWV and IAPV were detected in the HMP colony, but no viruses were detected in the LMP colony. With mite infestation of brood, the four viruses were detected in the HMP colony, but only DWV and IAPV were detected and at lower amounts in the LMP colony. An epidemiological explanation for these results is that pre-experiment differences in virus presence and levels existed between the HMP and LMP colonies. It is also possible that low V. destructor population growth in the LMP colony resulted in the bees being less exposed to the mite and thus less likely to have virus infections. LMP and HMP bees may have also differed in susceptibility to virus infection.

  14. Lower Virus Infections in Varroa destructor-Infested and Uninfested Brood and Adult Honey Bees (Apis mellifera) of a Low Mite Population Growth Colony Compared to a High Mite Population Growth Colony

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emsen, Berna; Hamiduzzaman, Mollah Md.; Goodwin, Paul H.; Guzman-Novoa, Ernesto

    2015-01-01

    A comparison was made of the prevalence and relative quantification of deformed wing virus (DWV), Israeli acute paralysis virus (IAPV), black queen cell virus (BQCV), Kashmir bee virus (KBV), acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV) and sac brood virus (SBV) in brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera) from colonies selected for high (HMP) and low (LMP) Varroa destructor mite population growth. Two viruses, ABPV and SBV, were never detected. For adults without mite infestation, DWV, IAPV, BQCV and KBV were detected in the HMP colony; however, only BQCV was detected in the LMP colony but at similar levels as in the HMP colony. With mite infestation, the four viruses were detected in adults of the HMP colony but all at higher amounts than in the LMP colony. For brood without mite infestation, DWV and IAPV were detected in the HMP colony, but no viruses were detected in the LMP colony. With mite infestation of brood, the four viruses were detected in the HMP colony, but only DWV and IAPV were detected and at lower amounts in the LMP colony. An epidemiological explanation for these results is that pre-experiment differences in virus presence and levels existed between the HMP and LMP colonies. It is also possible that low V. destructor population growth in the LMP colony resulted in the bees being less exposed to the mite and thus less likely to have virus infections. LMP and HMP bees may have also differed in susceptibility to virus infection. PMID:25723540

  15. Lower virus infections in Varroa destructor-infested and uninfested brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera of a low mite population growth colony compared to a high mite population growth colony.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Berna Emsen

    Full Text Available A comparison was made of the prevalence and relative quantification of deformed wing virus (DWV, Israeli acute paralysis virus (IAPV, black queen cell virus (BQCV, Kashmir bee virus (KBV, acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV and sac brood virus (SBV in brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera from colonies selected for high (HMP and low (LMP Varroa destructor mite population growth. Two viruses, ABPV and SBV, were never detected. For adults without mite infestation, DWV, IAPV, BQCV and KBV were detected in the HMP colony; however, only BQCV was detected in the LMP colony but at similar levels as in the HMP colony. With mite infestation, the four viruses were detected in adults of the HMP colony but all at higher amounts than in the LMP colony. For brood without mite infestation, DWV and IAPV were detected in the HMP colony, but no viruses were detected in the LMP colony. With mite infestation of brood, the four viruses were detected in the HMP colony, but only DWV and IAPV were detected and at lower amounts in the LMP colony. An epidemiological explanation for these results is that pre-experiment differences in virus presence and levels existed between the HMP and LMP colonies. It is also possible that low V. destructor population growth in the LMP colony resulted in the bees being less exposed to the mite and thus less likely to have virus infections. LMP and HMP bees may have also differed in susceptibility to virus infection.

  16. Recent population growth in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosal, G S

    1982-01-01

    Apart from a generalized discussion on the trends of population growth in India during the post-Independence decades and its socio economic implications, this paper examinies in some detail the spatal patterns of population change in India during 1971-1981. The discussion is mainly based on what has emerged on 3 maps depicting percentage change in general and rural and urban population change in India during this decade. While areas of rapid growth of population continue to be associated with net in-migration resulting from: 1) the development of manufacturing industries, mining, trade, and miscellaneous services, all leading to acceleration in the process of urbanization, 2) the development of irrigation and reclamation of land bringing about increased intensity and extension in farming, and 3) infiltration from neighboring countries, particularly from Bangladesh. The areas of relatively low growth are mostly those which have suffered net out-migration induced by pressure of population and paucity of resources or a desire to seek better avenues of employment elsewhere. Superimposed on this is the new trend of declining rate of natural increase, such as in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which has played its own role in bringing down the overall growth rate. Likewise there are areas, such as in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan, where recent breakthroughs in the mortality rate, with the birth rate staying at a high level, has stepped up the process of demographic dynamism. A comparison of the spatial patterns of 1971-1981 with those witnessed in precious decades brings out important chnges in these patterns which are occurring as a result of the various areas of the country getting into different phases of the second stage of the "demographic transition." With a view to bringing the benefits of socioeconomic progress to the door steps of all sections of the society in all parts of the country, it is necessary to bring about a substantial decline in the birth rate without

  17. Population growth and global warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Short, R.V.

    2009-01-01

    When I was born in 1930, the human population of the world was a mere 2 billion. Today, it has already reached 6.8 billion, and is projected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050. That is unsustainable. It is slowly beginning to dawn on us that Global Warming is the result of increasing human CO2 emissions, and the more people there are in the world, the worse it will become. Ultimately, it is the sky that will prove to be the limit to our numbers. The developed countries of the world are the most affluent, and also the most effluent, so we must lead by example and contain our own population growth and per capita emissions. We also have a big debt to repay to former colonial territories in Africa, Asia and South America, who desperately need our help to contain their excessive rates of population growth. Belgian and Dutch obstetricians and gynaecologists can play a critical role in this endeavour. After all, we already have a pill that will stop global warming – the oral contraceptive pill. PMID:25478068

  18. The communalisation of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, M

    1993-02-01

    It is politically dangerous to attribute birth rates to religion. Some propaganda proposes the following myths: that Hindus have only 1 wife and Muslims many; that Islam forbids family planning and Hinduism does not; that Muslims have a higher birth rate; and that there will be more Muslims in India soon. Statistical evidence is supplied to refute these claims. In fact, the rate of polygynous marriage is 5.80% among Hindus and 5.73% among Muslims, which means Muslims have a lower incidence. Islam "fatwas" allow temporary methods of contraception, but forbids abortions and sterilizations. Contraceptive use in Muslim countries such as Turkey, Egypt, and Indonesia is generally high. Fertility when cross-classified by religion and urban and rural residence or by monthly expenditures per capita shows that religion is not the significant variable. Socioeconomic factors do affect fertility, but there is a mix of socioeconomic groups among both Hindus and Muslims. Indian population growth projections indicate that Hindus will outnumber Muslims. Fertility decline has been significant in both urban and rural Muslim communities. A comparison of the Malabar region of Kerala and Uttar Pradesh shows Malabar with a 40% Muslim population and a lower birth rate than Uttar Pradesh with a 15% Muslim population. The conclusion is that the evidence does not support the myths; religion is not a primary determining factor.

  19. Keynes on population and economic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toye, J

    1997-01-01

    This article discusses the evolution of Keynes's thinking on population based on an unpublished paper from 1914, "Is the Problem of Population a Pressing and Important One Now?" The paper is reported to have 39 pages, but in fact there are many missing page numbers. Keynes's "Essays in Biography" (1933) follows the basic structure and much of the verbal detail of the first 16 pages of "Population." Chapter 2 of the "Economic Consequences of the Peace" discusses the key ideas of "Population." The passages in "Population" and Chapter 2 were probably the sources of a fierce controversy in 1923-24 between Keynes and W.H. Beveridge over Keynes' neo-Malthusianism. "Population" was the basis for the three themes that were central to Keynes's writing on population. Keynes's framework shifted from a global perspective in "Population" to a progressively narrower focus in the 1930s on England and Wales. Keynes was stronger in his advocacy of birth control in "Population" compared to later writings. Keynes was concerned about the quality of population but disagreed on the methods of achieving this. Keynes argued that 75% of the world was not subject to Malthusian dynamics, and the other 25% had developed technology to relieve population pressure. "Population" sketches out the rudiments of the welfare implications of the great divide between North and South population growth rates. Keynes assumes that overpopulation in the South will be compensated for by the international market without consideration of income deficits. Keynes argues against pronatalism. The 1933 essay shows Keynes shift away from Malthus as population expert to Malthus as political economist. By 1937, Keynes had recanted and was very aware of the uncertainty of the economy. The author believes that it is unfortunate that this 1913-14 manuscript remains unknown and, if known, misunderstood.

  20. The population factor in economic growth theory

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meilink, H.A.

    1974-01-01

    Reviews briefly the role of population growth in economic growth theory and makes a few critical remarks on the applied methodology and the underlying assumptions. Emphasis is laid on the possible relationships between population and economic growth in the developing countries, but also Malthus'

  1. Volatility and Growth in Populations of Rural Associations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wollebaek, Dag

    2010-01-01

    This article uses unique community-level data aggregated from censuses of associations to analyze growth and volatility in rural populations of grassroots associations. A qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the two main paths to growth were (1) centralization in polycephalous (multicentered) municipalities and (2) population growth…

  2. Population growth: Implications for environmental sustainability ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The impact of population growth on environment and its implication for survival is an important issue. Although considerable attention has been paid to this problem but systematic studies have been inadequate. Rapid population growth and economic development and daily demand for natural resources for domestic and ...

  3. 14 THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN POPULATION GROWTH AND ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    century when Thomas Malthus' study alerted the world on the relationship between population growth and the limitations of natural resources to sustain such growth, fears have lingered about the plausibility and consequences of population exceeding the capability of the natural resources or what is popularly referred to as ...

  4. The End of World Population Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Lutz, W.; W.C. Sanderson; S. Scherbov

    2001-01-01

    There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent...

  5. Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth and economic growth: Does Environmental Kuznets curve matter for Nigeria? ... This means Nigeria has reached the required level of per capita real GDP to get an inverted U-shaped EKC. The main policy prescriptions among others is that Nigeria ...

  6. The end of world population growth

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lutz, W; Sanderson, W; Scherbov, S

    2001-01-01

    There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting(1), here we show that there

  7. Population growth and development: an unexplained boom.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chesnais, J C

    1987-01-01

    The usual paradign of classical theory are unable to expalin an historical change as striking as the economic expansion of the poor countries. This failure is the result of 2 flaws in the initial approach. 1st, the "population question" is normally described as a race between 2 rates. Not only do population growth and economic development have common structural origins, but they are also both subject to dynamic and cumulative interaction. Consequently, a policy of improving cultural techniques, of building canals, or providing irrigation remove obstacles not only income growth but also to improved health conditions (resulting in further population growth). In turn, an improvement in health conditions is a powerful enough force to eliminate some traditional restraints on technological change and innovation. 2nd, the excessive attention paid to high fertility has led to neglect of the key role of declining mortality in today's population dynamics. A change in perspective has, from the economic standpoint, a decisive influence, for contrary to what was long accepted, the decline in mortality is far from an exogenous factor in economic development. On the contrary, a reduction in mortality is a precondition for long-term savings and private investment (because it extends the time frame of economic units). In this sense, income growth and population growth are linked a priori; they are 2 facets of the same phenomenon: development. Demographic growth and economic development are capable of reinforcing each other.

  8. Growth Prospects in China and India Compared

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard Herd

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares the growth prospects of China and India through a growth accounting analysis. Consistent time series for capital stock and employment are constructed using available survey data, and recent revisions to the national accounts for both countries are incorporated. The results allow for a discussion of the sources of growth in both countries, and a consideration of each country’s rate of potential growth in light of the outlook for national savings, as demographic shifts occur in each country

  9. Population growth and environmental degradation in Malawi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalipeni, E

    1992-01-01

    Malawi has been ranked by the World Bank as one of the poorest countries in Africa. Malawi's only resources are its people and fertile soil, which comprises about 55% of land area. Environmental degradation and population growth conditions in Malawi were used to illustrate the model of environmental degradation linked to population pressure on land resources and government development strategies that favored large-scale agricultural farms. The result has been deforestation, overgrazing, overuse of land for subsistence, and increased population density. The argument was that population growth in some developing countries has been so rapid that environmental collapse is the result. The theoretical framework linking population growth, environment, and resources emphasized processes: 1) the precursor stage of underlying causes; 2) the problem phase with potential ecological and economic decline; and 3) consequences (environmental decline, reduction in food production systems, and reduction in standard of living). The precursors were identified as an agrarian society, lack of a population policy, and emphasis on large families. The problems were rapid population growth and immigration from Mozambique, which led to increased demand for trees for fuel and consequent deforestation, increased demand for arable land and consequent landlessness, increased investment in livestock and consequent overgrazing, and continued population momentum which was a financial burden to government and resulted in increased labor competition. The ecological consequences were soil erosion, degradation of vegetation, and water supply contamination and decline. Eventually, famines will occur and lead to disease, migration, deserted villages, urbanization, unemployment, ethnic conflicts, and political unrest. Population was estimated at 8.75 million in 1990, with exponential growth expected. Completed family size was 6.6 children per woman. Even replacement fertility would mean growth for 50 more

  10. Models of the World human population growth- critical analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Golosovsky, Michael

    2009-01-01

    We analyze mathematical models of the global human population growth and compare them to actual dynamics of the world population and of the world surplus product. We consider a possibility that the so-called world's demographic transition is not a dynamic crossover but a phase transition that affects all aspects of our life.

  11. Population priorities: the challenge of continued rapid population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Adair

    2009-10-27

    Rapid population growth continues in the least developed countries. The revisionist case that rapid population could be overcome by technology, that population density was advantageous, that capital shallowing is not a vital concern and that empirical investigations had not proved a correlation between high population growth and low per capita income was both empirically and theoretically flawed. In the modern world, population density does not play the role it did in nineteenth-century Europe and rates of growth in some of today's least developed nations are four times than those in nineteenth-century Europe, and without major accumulation of capital per capita, no major economy has or is likely to make the low- to middle-income transition. Though not sufficient, capital accumulation for growth is absolutely essential to economic growth. While there are good reasons for objecting to the enforced nature of the Chinese one-child policy, we should not underestimate the positive impact which that policy has almost certainly had and will have over the next several decades on Chinese economic performance. And a valid reticence about telling developing countries that they must contain fertility should not lead us to underestimate the severely adverse impact of high fertility rates on the economic performance and prospects of many countries in Africa and the Middle East.

  12. Capital dependent population growth induces cycles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yueksel, Mustafa Kerem, E-mail: mkerem@bilkent.edu.tr [Bilkent University, Department of Economics, Bilkent, 06800 Ankara (Turkey)

    2011-09-15

    Highlights: > We examine the existence of cycles in Solow-Kalecki type economic growth models. > Cobb-Douglas type production functions and time delay are not sufficient for the economy to behave cyclic. > When capital dependent population dynamics are incorporated, the model induces Hopf bifurcation. - Abstract: Cobb-Douglas type production functions and time-delay are not sufficient for the economy to behave cyclic. However, capital dependent population dynamics can enforce Hopf bifurcation.

  13. INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND INDUSTRIALIZATION WITH NEGATIVE POPULATION GROWTH

    OpenAIRE

    Sasaki, Hiroaki

    2015-01-01

    This paper builds a small-open-economy, non-scale-growth model with negative population growth and investigates the relationship between trade patterns and per capita consumption growth. Under free trade, if the population growth rate is negative and its absolute value is small, the home country becomes an agricultural country. Then, the long-run growth rate of per capita consumption is positive and depends on the world population growth rate. On other hand, if the population growth rate is n...

  14. New nonlinear model of population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    T Alkahtani, Badr Saad; Atangana, Abdon; Koca, Ilknur

    2017-01-01

    The model of population growth is revised in this paper. A new model is proposed based on the concept of fractional differentiation that uses the generalized Mittag-Leffler function as kernel of differentiation. The new model includes the choice of sexuality. The existence of unique solution is investigated and numerical solution is provided.

  15. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

  16. Brazilian population 1982: growth, migration, race, religion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, T G

    1982-01-01

    The rate of population increase dropped to less than 2.5% annually in Brazil between 1970-80, but 26 million more people were born. The 1980 census also provides details of continuing urbanization, settlement of the farthest frontiers, and changes in racial composition. The direct cause of the drop in population increase was a drop of about 15% in the fertility rate that had been projected for the decade. Brazil's rate of population increase declined impressively despite the fact that the country continued to make progress in reducing mortality. The greatest improvement occurred between 1930-60. The mortality rate averaged 20.9/1000 between 1940-50 but dropped to 14.2/1000 between 1950-60. Even though the crude death rate dropped 28% in the 1970-80 decade and each child born in 1980 can expect to live 6.5 years longer than a child born in 1970, the life expectancy of 62 years compares with Colombia and El Salvador, which are much poorer countries. In Brazil as a whole the crude birthrate in the 15-19 age group was 66/1000 in 1980. It was 46/1000 in 1970, an increase of nearly 50%. In urban areas the rate increased from 37/1000 to 57/1000 and in the countryside from 59/1000 to 89/1000. The crude birthrate went down slightly in Brazil from 1970-80 from 34 to 32/1000. The total fertility rate (TFR) dropped in the same period from 4.9ll to 3.983. The question that arises is whether fertility rates will increase, with women in the youngest age group continuing to have more children during their reproductive years. Internal migration plays a major role in the distribution of the population. Between 1970-80 there were changes in the migration pattern from the previous decade. All the rapidly growing areas, defined as the frontier, have high fertility rates, but much of their growth results from migration. Between 1960-70 and 1970-80 the most rapidly growing areas of the frontier changed. Few are aware of the extent to which Brazil is becoming a country of large cities

  17. POPULATION GROWTH AND HEALTH CARE DELIVERY IN ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Adamawa state population is projected to be approximately 2,819million by the year 2001. This gives an increase of 716,784 as compared to the 1991 census figure, which is 2,102,053 for the state. The last census (1991) formed the basis of this projection. Further,1996 projected population was projected to the year 2001.

  18. Design issues for population growth models

    Science.gov (United States)

    López Fidalgo, J.; Ortiz Rodríguez, I.M.

    2010-01-01

    We briefly review and discuss design issues for population growth and decline models. We then use a flexible growth and decline model as an illustrative example and apply optimal design theory to find optimal sampling times for estimating model parameters, specific parameters and interesting functions of the model parameters for the model with two real applications. Robustness properties of the optimal designs are investigated when nominal values or the model is mis-specified, and also under a different optimality criterion. To facilitate use of optimal design ideas in practice, we also introduce a website for generating a variety of optimal designs for popular models from different disciplines. PMID:21647244

  19. Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

  20. Effects of the Global Population Growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Voiculeţ Alina

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The demographic factor is not purely natural. It is a social body that has its own structure andis manifested through a series of processes that make up its movement: birth rate, death rate,longevity, migration etc. All these processes depend on the social and economic environment inwhich people live. The growth of the world's population will have multiple effects on theenvironment, the economy and society as a whole.

  1. Modeling bacterial population growth from stochastic single-cell dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Antonio A; Molina, Ignacio; Theodoropoulos, Constantinos

    2014-09-01

    A few bacterial cells may be sufficient to produce a food-borne illness outbreak, provided that they are capable of adapting and proliferating on a food matrix. This is why any quantitative health risk assessment policy must incorporate methods to accurately predict the growth of bacterial populations from a small number of pathogens. In this aim, mathematical models have become a powerful tool. Unfortunately, at low cell concentrations, standard deterministic models fail to predict the fate of the population, essentially because the heterogeneity between individuals becomes relevant. In this work, a stochastic differential equation (SDE) model is proposed to describe variability within single-cell growth and division and to simulate population growth from a given initial number of individuals. We provide evidence of the model ability to explain the observed distributions of times to division, including the lag time produced by the adaptation to the environment, by comparing model predictions with experiments from the literature for Escherichia coli, Listeria innocua, and Salmonella enterica. The model is shown to accurately predict experimental growth population dynamics for both small and large microbial populations. The use of stochastic models for the estimation of parameters to successfully fit experimental data is a particularly challenging problem. For instance, if Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the required distributions of times to division, the parameter estimation problem can become numerically intractable. We overcame this limitation by converting the stochastic description to a partial differential equation (backward Kolmogorov) instead, which relates to the distribution of division times. Contrary to previous stochastic formulations based on random parameters, the present model is capable of explaining the variability observed in populations that result from the growth of a small number of initial cells as well as the lack of it compared to

  2. Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

    2016-02-01

    In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

  3. Comparing Basal Area Growth Rates in Repeated Inventories: Simpson's Paradox in Forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charles E. Thomas; Bernard R. Parresol

    1989-01-01

    Recent analyses of radial growth rates in southern commercial forests have shown that current rates are lower than past rates when compared diameter class by diameter class. These results have been interpreted as an indication that the growth rate of the forest is declining. In this paper, growth rates of forest populations in Alabama are studied. Basal area growth (a...

  4. Population Growth in the 1990s: Patterns within the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Marc

    2002-01-01

    Examines population growth during the 1990s for a variety of geographic levels including regions, divisions, states, metropolitan areas, counties, and large cities. Compares growth rates for the 1990s with earlier decades to provide an historical context for present-day trends in population growth and decline. Discusses how differential population…

  5. World Population: Fundamentals of Growth. Student Chartbook. Third Edition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Mary Mederios

    This booklet is designed for K-12 students and educators to learn about world population growth factors. Data are shown through charts and graphs with brief explanations. The booklet contains: (1) "World Population Growth and Regional Distribution through History"; (2) "Population Growth through Natural Increase"; (3) "Effect of Migration on…

  6. Impact of population growth and population ethics on climate change mitigation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; Budolfson, Mark B.; Dennig, Francis; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.; Spears, Dean; Wagner, Fabian

    2017-01-01

    Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period’s discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing—rather than merely cost savings—again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. PMID:29087298

  7. Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madulu, N F

    1995-03-01

    -4 years of schooling compared to women with no formal education and women with 5 or more years of education. Population growth contributes to deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, famine, drought, flooding, and demand for firewood.

  8. Curbing population growth in Republic of Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woo-hyun, S

    1983-01-26

    significantly. The planned parenthood program, the major thrust of the government's population policy, has proven to be effective. The average fertility rate of Korean women has declined from 6 in 1960 to 2.7 in 1982. The net population increase had dropped from 2.84% in 1960 to 1.67% in 1980. Over the 1962-81 period, the government spent US$145.5 million on planned parenthood programs. The preference for sons continues despite the government slogan, "stop at two, regardless of sex." Only 41% of women with only 2 daughters practice birth control, compared with 71% of those with only 2 sons. There is also a fertility gap between urban women (2.4) and rural women (3.3).

  9. Space Analogue Environments: Are the Populations Comparable?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandal, G. M.

    Background: Much of our present understanding about psychology in space is based on studies of groups operating in so-called analogue environments where personnel are exposed to many of the same stressors as those experienced by astronauts in space. One possible problem with extrapolating results is that personnel operating in various hazardous and confined environments might differ in characteristics influencing coping, interaction, and performance. The object of this study was to compare the psychological similarity of these populations in order to get a better understanding of whether this extrapolation is justifiable. The samples investigated include polar crossings (N= 22), personnel on Antarctic research stations (N= 183), several military occupations (N= 187), and participants in space simulation studies (N=20). Methods: Personnel in each of these environments were assessed using the Personality Characteristic Inventory (PCI) and Utrecht Coping List (UCL). The PCI is a multidimensional trait assessment battery that measures various aspects of achievement orientation and social competence. The UCL is a questionnaire designed to assess habitual coping strategies when encountering stressful or demanding situations. Results: Only minor differences in use of habitual coping strategies were evident across the different samples. In relation to personality scores, the military subjects and participants in space simulation studies indicated higher competitiveness and negative instrumentality compared to both the personnel on Antarctic research stations and participants in polar expedition. Among the personnel on Antarctic research stations, significant gender differences were found with women scoring lower on competitiveness, negative instrumentality and impatience/irritability. Compared to the other samples, the participants in polar expeditions were found to be more homogeneous in personality and no significant gender differences were evident on the traits that

  10. The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries

    OpenAIRE

    Atanda, Akinwande A.; Aminu, Salaudeen B.; Alimi, Olorunfemi Y.

    2012-01-01

    The precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been inconclusive in the literature and the nexus has been found not clearly explain the determinants of rapid population growth in developing countries that lacks fertility control and management framework. This forms the rationale for this study to access the trend of factors that influence rapid population growth in developing countries between 1980 and 2010. This paper examined the comparative trend review of pop...

  11. Implications of population growth for Nigeria's development | Fan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nigeria's population that was 16 million in 1911 is about 140 million today. Attention invariably turns to the implications of this growth to the qualities of life for her inhabitants. The paper notes that high birth rate, low death rate and migration are the sources of the high population growth in Nigeria. The population then ...

  12. 525 Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    unemployment in Nigeria and that population growth does not play a role in the persistence of unemployment ... presupposes that the world population has to be controlled so as to avoid global food crisis due to an impending .... they predicted that high population growth causes poor socio-economic development due to ...

  13. Reproduction worship and population growth in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, J

    1992-01-01

    Surveys have found that the overwhelming majority of married women in China desire to have 2 or more children and that male children are generally preferred to female children. This interest in bearing multiple children, and especially sons, reflects traditional needs for male laborers in China's rural families, parents' quests to ensure their personal old-age security, and a broad, deeply-ingrained social sense of the need to perpetuate the family. As China gradually modernizes, however, these first 2 factors, which support multiple births and preference for sons, grow less important. This latter factor of perceived need for male offspring to perpetuate the family, however, remains most powerful in Chinese society. The Chinese worship their ancestors as the source of life. While ancestors are considered gods, fathers are thought to be their subordinates. Ancestor and reproduction worship has been a respected part of traditional Chinese culture for thousands of years since the Shang and Zhou dynasties. These notions may even be found in Confucian doctrine where family perpetuation is held up as the greatest act of filial piety. Accepting these beliefs and teachings, Chinese have tended to marry early, begin bearing children without delay, and strive to ultimately produce many offspring. Family planning and population policy have brought about a reduction in birth rate from 30/1000 in the early 1970s to 20/1000 by the early 1980s. Multibirths and unplanned births, however, have yet to be eliminated. Multibirths in fact accounted for 13.6% of all children born in China in 1988, with 92% born in rural areas where reproduction worship in strongest. 70% of families with multibirths were prompted by the desire to have more sons. An estimated 30 million unplanned births occurred in the 1980s due to parents' interests in perpetuating the family. Under the conditions, policy will have only limited effect in moderating fertility and population growth in China. Accordingly

  14. Genomic growth curves of an outbred pig population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In the current post-genomic era, the genetic basis of pig growth can be understood by assessing SNP marker effects and genomic breeding values (GEBV based on estimates of these growth curve parameters as phenotypes. Although various statistical methods, such as random regression (RR-BLUP and Bayesian LASSO (BL, have been applied to genomic selection (GS, none of these has yet been used in a growth curve approach. In this work, we compared the accuracies of RR-BLUP and BL using empirical weight-age data from an outbred F2 (Brazilian Piau X commercial population. The phenotypes were determined by parameter estimates using a nonlinear logistic regression model and the halothane gene was considered as a marker for evaluating the assumptions of the GS methods in relation to the genetic variation explained by each locus. BL yielded more accurate values for all of the phenotypes evaluated and was used to estimate SNP effects and GEBV vectors. The latter allowed the construction of genomic growth curves, which showed substantial genetic discrimination among animals in the final growth phase. The SNP effect estimates allowed identification of the most relevant markers for each phenotype, the positions of which were coincident with reported QTL regions for growth traits.

  15. Age and growth of two populations of West Coast steenbras ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    dependent competition for food, or biochemical genetic variations between the two populations, are possible reasons for the geographic differences found in the growth rates and length-at-age. Slow growth and longevity are characteristics of ...

  16. Comparative evaluation of growth performance, carcass ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The parameters measured were growth performance traits, linear body ... The organ characteristics indicated significantly (P < 0.05) higher relative weights of ... to raise Anak for sale at mature age while Marshal should go for brood and sale.

  17. Migration Policy, African Population Growth and Global Inequality

    OpenAIRE

    Mountford, Andrew; Rapoport, Hillel

    2014-01-01

    According to recent UN projections more than 50 percent of the growth in world population over the next half century will be due to population growth in Africa. Given this, any policy that influences African demography will have a significant impact on the world distribution of income. In this paper we discuss the potential for migration policies to affect fertility and education decisions, and hence, population growth in Africa. We present the results from different scenarios for more or les...

  18. Population growth of small towns in Libyan Arab Jamahiriya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kezeiri, S K

    1987-06-01

    The rapid population growth of small towns in Libya is examined, and future prospects are considered. "Their growth can be attributed to natural increase, internal migration and the influx of foreigners, all of which factors have been stimulated by the State. The paper provides detailed data on the growth and development of small towns and the changes occurring in the overall distribution and density of the Libyan population. The reasons behind the growth and sometimes the demise of individual towns are examined." excerpt

  19. The entwined growth of population and product, 1922-1982.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-porath, Y

    1997-01-01

    This article "discusses aggregate-level interactions between Jewish immigration and economic growth both in the Jewish sector of Mandatory Palestine and in Israel". The reciprocal effects of population and economic growth are discussed in two sections on population as an engine of growth and was the size of the population dependent on the economy. The author concludes that "causality between population and [gross national] product runs both ways.... For the whole period 1922-1982, it is very clear that immigration pushed the rate of increase of capital stock. For the period from 1954 on, immigration responded to the growth rate of per capita income or consumption." excerpt

  20. Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costa da Silva, Diego Firmino; Elhorst, J. Paul; Silveira Neto, Raul da Mota

    2017-01-01

    Urban and rural population growth in a spatial panel of municipalities. Regional Studies. Using Bayesian posterior model probabilities and data pertaining to 3659 Brazilian minimum comparable areas (MCAs) over the period 1970-2010, two theoretical settings of population growth dynamics resulting in

  1. Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations

    OpenAIRE

    Rosenzweig, Mark R.

    1987-01-01

    Empirical evidence on three assertions commonly-made by population policy advocates about the relationships among population growth, human capital formation and economic development is discussed and evaluated in the light of economic-biological models of household behavior and of its relevance to population policy. The three assertions are that (a) population growth and human capital investments jointly reflect and respond to changes in the economic environment, (b) larger families directly i...

  2. Population growth of three freshwater prawns ( Macrobrachium spp ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Growth parameters of the populations of three freshwater prawns: Macrobrachium vollenhovenii, M. macrobrachion and M. felicinum in the Lower Ogun River were determined. For each population, lengthfrequency data for twenty-four month period (January 2006-December 2007) were analysed to determine the growth ...

  3. Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreland, R S

    1982-01-01

    The role of population growth in the development process has received increasing attention during the last 15 years, as manifested in the literature in 3 broad categories. In the 1st category, the effects of rapid population growth on the growth of income have been studied with the use of simulation models, which sometimes include endogenous population growth. The 2nd category of the literature is concerned with theoretical and empirical studies of the economic determinants of various demographic rates--most usually fertility. Internal migration and dualism is the 3rd population development category to recieve attention. An attempt is made to synthesize developments in these 3 categories by estimating from a consistent set of data a 2 sector economic demographic model in which the major demographic rates are endogenous. Due to the fact that the interactions between economic and demographic variables are nonlinear and complex, the indirect effects of changes in a particular variable may depend upon the balance of numerical coefficients. For this reason it was felt that the model should be empirically grounded. A brief overview of the model is provided, and the model is compared to some similar existing models. Estimation of the model's 9 behavior equations is discussed, followed by a "base run" simulation of a developing country "stereotype" and a report of a number of policy experiments. The relatively new field of economic determinants of demographic variables was drawn upon in estimating equations to endogenize demographic phenomena that are frequently left exogenous in simulation models. The fertility and labor force participation rate functions are fairly standard, but a step beyong existing literature was taken in the life expectancy and intersectorial migration equations. On the economic side, sectoral savings functions were estimated, and it was found that the marginal propensity to save is lower in agriculture than in nonagriculture. Testing to see the

  4. Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

    OpenAIRE

    Stevanović Radoslav

    2005-01-01

    The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution) of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-econ...

  5. Winter temperatures limit population growth rate of a migratory songbird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woodworth, Bradley K; Wheelwright, Nathaniel T; Newman, Amy E; Schaub, Michael; Norris, D Ryan

    2017-03-20

    Understanding the factors that limit and regulate wildlife populations requires insight into demographic and environmental processes acting throughout the annual cycle. Here, we combine multi-year tracking data of individual birds with a 26-year demographic study of a migratory songbird to evaluate the relative effects of density and weather at the breeding and wintering grounds on population growth rate. Our results reveal clear support for opposing forces of winter temperature and breeding density driving population dynamics. Above-average temperatures at the wintering grounds lead to higher population growth, primarily through their strong positive effects on survival. However, population growth is regulated over the long term by strong negative effects of breeding density on both fecundity and adult male survival. Such knowledge of how year-round factors influence population growth, and the demographic mechanisms through which they act, will vastly improve our ability to predict species responses to environmental change and develop effective conservation strategies for migratory animals.

  6. Green sea turtle age, growth, population characteristics

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Morphology, sex ratio, body condition, disease status, age structure, and growth patterns were characterized for 448 green sea turtles cold stunned in St. Joseph...

  7. Human population growth and the demographic transition

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    John Bongaarts

    2009-01-01

    .... Projections for the next half century expect a highly divergent world, with stagnation or potential decline in parts of the developed world and continued rapid growth in the least developed regions...

  8. Population Growth and Economic Development: New Empirical Evidence from Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Fumitaka Furuoka

    2009-01-01

    Population growth has a substantial impact on economic development. There are two schools of thought regarding this issue. Some researchers maintain that population has a negative impact on economic development while others are convinced that the effect is positive. This paper aims to provide additional evidence by employing the bounds test (Pesaran et al., 2001) to analyse a long-run relationship between population growth and economic development in Thailand. The findings of this study indic...

  9. Population Growth and Economic Development: Empirical Evidence from the Philippines

    OpenAIRE

    FURUOKA, Fumitaka

    2012-01-01

    Various concerns have been expressed about the ability of the world economy to sustain the ever-expanding world population. This paper aims to provide additional empirical evidence to the ongoing debate about the impact of population growth on economic development with the Philippines as a case study. The findings of this study indicate the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic performance and population growth in the Philippines. That is, economic development in t...

  10. Soil science, population growth and food production: some historical developments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hartemink, A.E.

    2007-01-01

    The world¿s population has doubled since 1960. Currently, the developing world accounts for about 95% of the population growth with Africa as the world¿s fastest growing continent. The growing population has many implications but most of all it requires an increase in agricultural production to meet

  11. [Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ngendakumana, M

    1988-04-01

    A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive

  12. Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

    2008-05-01

    The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

  13. Comparative efficacy of a phytogenic feed additive and an antibiotic growth promoter on production performance, caecal microbial population and humoral immune response of broiler chickens inoculated with enteric pathogens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toshi Wati

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this work was to compare the efficacy of a commercially available phytogenic feed additive (PFA and an antibiotic growth promoter, which was bacitracin methylene disalicylate (BMD, on performance, nutrient retention, caecal colonization of bacteria and humoral immune responses against Newcastle disease in broiler chickens challenged orally with Salmonella enteritidis and Escherichia coli. One-day-old male Cobb 400 broiler chicks (n = 120 were fed with 1 a negative control (NC diet, which is the basal diet without any added growth promoter, 2 a positive control (PC diet, the basal diet supplemented with BMD, 500 mg/kg and 3 a diet supplemented with PFA (150 mg/kg for 39 days and the birds were inoculated with S. enteritidis and E. coli on d 28. Supplementation of PFA improved body weight, feed conversion ratio, retention of N and crude fiber, increased fecal moisture content and decreased digesta transit time as compared with the NC and PC groups (P < 0.01. Both the PC and the PFA was found to be equally effective in controlling the surge in numbers of Salmonella and E. coli following oral inoculation of these bacteria as compared with the NC group (P < 0.05 at 24 h past inoculation. Caecal content analysis on d 39 indicated lower numbers of Salmonella, E. coli and Clostridium in the PC and PFA groups as compared with the NC group (P < 0.05. The number of Lactobacillus in the PFA group was higher than those in the NC and PC groups (P < 0.05. Humoral immune response, measured as hemagglutination inhibition titer against Newcastle disease, was better in the PC and PFA groups compared with the NC group (P < 0.05 at d 21 but the difference did not last till d 39. The heterophil to lymphocyte ratio was narrower (P < 0.001 and alkaline phosphatase activity was higher (P < 0.01 in the PFA group as compared with the NC and PC groups on d 39. It was concluded that the PFA, which is animal, environment and consumer friendly, may be used as an

  14. Population Growth and Environmental Recovery: More People ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper surveys the impact of growing population pressure on the environmental resource base of Ethiopia at large, and that of West Gurageland in particular, as reflected in the land use/land cover changes in light of the two noted and widely held neo-Malthusian (pessimistic) and Boesrupian (optimistic) views.

  15. Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

    1996-01-01

    This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

  16. Innovation and the growth of human population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weinberger, V P; Quiñinao, C; Marquet, P A

    2017-12-05

    Biodiversity is sustained by and is essential to the services that ecosystems provide. Different species would use these services in different ways, or adaptive strategies, which are sustained in time by continuous innovations. Using this framework, we postulate a model for a biological species (Homo sapiens) in a finite world where innovations, aimed at increasing the flux of ecosystem services (a measure of habitat quality), increase with population size, and have positive effects on the generation of new innovations (positive feedback) as well as costs in terms of negatively affecting the provision of ecosystem services. We applied this model to human populations, where technological innovations are driven by cumulative cultural evolution. Our model shows that depending on the net impact of a technology on the provision of ecosystem services (θ), and the strength of technological feedback (ξ), different regimes can result. Among them, the human population can fill the entire planet while maximizing their well-being, but not exhaust ecosystem services. However, this outcome requires positive or green technologies that increase the provision of ecosystem services with few negative externalities or environmental costs, and that have a strong positive feedback in generating new technologies of the same kind. If the feedback is small, then the technological stock can collapse together with the human population. Scenarios where technological innovations generate net negative impacts may be associated with a limited technological stock as well as a limited human population at equilibrium and the potential for collapse. The only way to fill the planet with humans under this scenario of negative technologies is by reducing the technological stock to a minimum. Otherwise, the only feasible equilibrium is associated with population collapse. Our model points out that technological innovations per se may not help humans to grow and dominate the planet. Instead, different

  17. The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

    2017-09-01

    Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations.

  18. Troublesome trends: population growth, distribution, migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    The upcoming International Conference on Population and Development and its draft plan of action call for international cooperation in protecting and assisting refugees and displaced persons and in assuring positive consequences in host and origin countries. The draft plan also aims to protect the elderly through enhancing self-reliance and continued work and independent living in their own communities. Social support systems for the elderly must also be strengthened. The document is also concerned with the movement of population to cities and across borders. Recommendations on migration encourage governments to evaluate the impact of economic and environmental policies on population distribution and migration, to promote development of medium-sized urban centers, to encourage rural economic development and placement of industries in rural areas, and to support access to land ownership or use and access to water resources in rural areas. Rural infrastructure and social services need to be improved. Grassroots organizations and cooperatives for establishing credit and marketing products are emphasized. Weak local area management is an obstacle to socioeconomic development, environmental protection, and population distribution. Waste, water, and land management strategies should be adopted. Prevention of the root causes of displacement is particularly important when environmental damage is the consequence or the cause. Women, children, and the elderly who are displaced need protection. Refugee numbers have swelled from 8.5 million in 1985 to 19 million in 1993. Sudden and mass refugee arrivals should be afforded temporary protection until a solution can be found. Conditions must be created for safe and dignified, voluntary repatriation. The social and economic integration of documented, longterm migrants must be assured.

  19. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  20. The growth rates and population dynamics of bivalves in estuaries ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growth rates and population dynamics of bivalves in estuaries and shallow seas in the. Northern Hemisphere have been extensively studied. In these regions bivalves occur in densities up to 7 fm/ml (Stephen 1928) and densities of 1 fm/ml are common. Further, growth studies on these animals have been facilitated by ...

  1. Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul A. Lorah

    2000-01-01

    A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

  2. Assessing the anticipated growth response of northern conifer populations to a warming climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedlar, John H.; McKenney, Daniel W.

    2017-03-01

    The growth response of trees to ongoing climate change has important implications for future forest dynamics, accurate carbon accounting, and sustainable forest management. We used data from black spruce (Picea mariana) and jack pine (Pinus banksiana) provenance trials, along with published data for three other northern conifers, to identify a consistent growth response to climate warming in which cold-origin populations are expected to benefit and warm-origin populations are expected to decline. Specifically, populations from across the geographic range of a species appear to grow well at temperatures characteristic of the southern portion of the range, indicating significant potential for a positive growth response to climate warming in cold-origin populations. Few studies have quantified and compared this pattern across multiple species using provenance data. We present a forest regeneration strategy that incorporates these anticipated growth responses to promote populations that are both local to the planting site and expected to grow well under climate change.

  3. Effects of temperature and population density on von Bertalanffy growth parameters in Atlantic herring: a macro-ecological analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brunel, T.P.A.; Dickey-Collas, M.

    2010-01-01

    The effect of temperature and population density on the growth of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus was studied using a comparative approach applied to 15 North Atlantic populations. The von Bertalanffy (VB) equation was applied to describe mean growth of individuals in each population, both averaged

  4. Analysis of Population Growth and Land Use in Pelaneng Bokong ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The question of whether population growth can contribute to environmental degradation and undermine efforts to manage resources sustainably and ultimately impairing agricultural development is a long-standing concern. This paper uses a three-tier methodology consisting of analysis of population dynamics, mapping of ...

  5. A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

    2006-01-01

    Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

  6. Psychologists and the problem of population growth : Reply to Bridgeman

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Clayton, Susan; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet K.; Bonnes, Mirilia; Devine-Wright, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Bridgeman (2017) describes the important role of population growth in contributing to environmental problems. The present essay argues that population is an important component of human impact on the environment, but it must be considered in combination with consumption rates. A place-based

  7. Comparing models for growth and management of forest tracts

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.J. Colbert; Michael Schuckers; Desta Fekedulegn

    2003-01-01

    The Stand Damage Model (SDM) is a PC-based model that is easily installed, calibrated and initialized for use in exploring the future growth and management of forest stands or small wood lots. We compare the basic individual tree growth model incorporated in this model with alternative models that predict the basal area growth of trees. The SDM is a gap-type simulator...

  8. Population dynamics of metastable growth-rate phenotypes.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay S Moore

    Full Text Available Neo-Darwinian evolution has presented a paradigm for population dynamics built on random mutations and selection with a clear separation of time-scales between single-cell mutation rates and the rate of reproduction. Laboratory experiments on evolving populations until now have concentrated on the fixation of beneficial mutations. Following the Darwinian paradigm, these experiments probed populations at low temporal resolution dictated by the rate of rare mutations, ignoring the intermediate evolving phenotypes. Selection however, works on phenotypes rather than genotypes. Research in recent years has uncovered the complexity of genotype-to-phenotype transformation and a wealth of intracellular processes including epigenetic inheritance, which operate on a wide range of time-scales. Here, by studying the adaptation dynamics of genetically rewired yeast cells, we show a novel type of population dynamics in which the intracellular processes intervene in shaping the population structure. Under constant environmental conditions, we measure a wide distribution of growth rates that coexist in the population for very long durations (>100 generations. Remarkably, the fastest growing cells do not take over the population on the time-scale dictated by the width of the growth-rate distributions and simple selection. Additionally, we measure significant fluctuations in the population distribution of various phenotypes: the fraction of exponentially-growing cells, the distributions of single-cell growth-rates and protein content. The observed fluctuations relax on time-scales of many generations and thus do not reflect noisy processes. Rather, our data show that the phenotypic state of the cells, including the growth-rate, for large populations in a constant environment is metastable and varies on time-scales that reflect the importance of long-term intracellular processes in shaping the population structure. This lack of time-scale separation between the

  9. Population growth. Its magnitude and implications for development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birdsall, N

    1984-09-01

    A summary of the 1984 World Development Report is provided. The 3 major points stressed in the report were: 1) rapid population growth adversely affects development, 2) governments must adopt policies to reduce fertility, and 3) policies adopted by many countries have effectively reduced fertility. World population growth began accelerating at 0.5%/year in the 18th century, and by 1950 the annual acceleration rate was 2%. Most of the increase in population size is occurring in less developed countries, and this increase is due in part to the recent decline in mortality experienced by these countries. Of the 80 million individuals who will be added to the world's population in 1984, 70 million will be in the developing countries. Since 1965 the population growth rate for developing countries as a group declined from 2.4% to 2%. However, because of the high proportion of younger aged individuals in developing countries, the decline in fertility is expected to level off. According to World Bank population projections, the world population will stabilize at around 11 billion in 2150. During the interium, the population of developing countries will increase from its present level of 3.6 billion to 8.4 billion, and the population of developed countries will increase from 1.2 billion to 1.4 billion. These projections are probably overly optimistic. The adverse impact on development of rapid population growth is due to several factors. 1st, resources which could be used for investment must instead be used to fulfill the consumption needs of an increased number of people. 2nd, increases in the labor force must be absorbed by the agricultural sector, and this reduces agricultural productivity. 3rd, rapid population growth increases management problems. The adaption of policies by governments to reduce fertility is a necessary step in halting population growth. For poor families, children provide economic security. Therefore, governments must act to improve the economic

  10. Put an end to population growth and improve productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, U W

    1999-01-01

    The representative from Korea at the 15th Asian Parliamentarians' Meeting discussed issues concerning the environment, food security, and population growth. The implementation of population control programs is an issue that warrants continuous attention and efforts. The imbalance in the sexes, the decrease in the labor force, the rapid increase in number of senior citizens, insufficient food, unbalanced population distribution due to urbanization, and pollution are some of the new threats humanity faces. Like other developing countries, Korea put environmental protection on the back burner and its economic development took precedence over environmental concerns. As a result, Korea fostered industries that consume massive amounts of energy and resources, polluting the environment. Not only environmental hazards, but also social ills such as population concentration in urban areas, security problems, deteriorating living conditions, and crimes, developed due to industrialization and urbanization. The main priority should be the revival of the earth and the study of the effects of population growth on the environment. The root causes of environmental destruction consist of explosive population growth, industrial pollution, and development; the best way to restrain these destructive forces is to put an end to population growth. To improve food security, humanity needs to make specific action plans to implement the Hague Declaration urging the establishment of the World Food Bank.

  11. Population growth and economic growth: empirical estimation for a sample of Balkan countries

    OpenAIRE

    Josheski, Dushko; Fotov, Risto

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we use pooled cross-sectional (longitudinal data) in a sample of 10 Balkan countries. The period we cover is from 1950-2009 data are for population and economic growth. In the theoreti-cal part we present optimal intergenerational model of population growth .The optimal population growth depends on capital in the future period and future consumption. Consumption should be great-er than zero, and less than total capital of the current generation. In the econometric part OLS regre...

  12. How does cell size regulation affect population growth?

    CERN Document Server

    Lin, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The proliferation of a growing microbial colony is well characterized by the population growth rate. However, at the single-cell level, isogenic cells often exhibit different cell-cycle durations. For evolutionary dynamics, it is thus important to establish the connection between the population growth rate and the heterogeneous single-cell generation time. Existing theories often make the assumption that the generation times of mother and daughter cells are independent. However, it has been shown that to maintain a bounded cell size distribution, cells that grow exponentially at the single-cell level need to adopt cell size regulation, leading to a negative correlation of mother-daughter generation time. In this work, we construct a general framework to describe the population growth in the presence of size regulation. We derive a formula for the population growth rate, which only depends on the variability of single-cell growth rate, independent of other sources of noises. Our work shows that a population ca...

  13. Population growth and the development of a central place system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cromley, Robert G.; Hanink, Dean M.

    2008-12-01

    This paper describes the spatial and functional evolution of a central place system as market conditions change with population growth. Utilizing a partial equilibrium optimization model, we examine the spatial response of two economic sectors to increases in market populations resulting from natural increase and migration. Response in both sectors is conditioned by threshold demand, with factor prices also affecting one of the sectors. As the central place system evolves it exhibits spatial and functional characteristics that are initially consistent with a Löschian landscape, then a Christallerian landscape at higher populations, while at even larger populations Krugman’s landscape emerges.

  14. Forecasting the U.S. Population with the Gompertz Growth Curve

    OpenAIRE

    Pflaumer, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Population forecasts have received a great deal of attention during the past few years. They are widely used for planning and policy purposes. In this paper, the Gompertz growth curve is proposed to forecast the U.S. population. In order to evaluate its forecast error, population estimates from 1890 to 2010 are compared with the corresponding predictions for a variety of launch years, estimation periods, and forecast horizons. Various descriptive measures of these forecast errors are presente...

  15. Population growth and the benefits from optimally priced externalities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, H R; Ng Y-k

    1995-06-01

    "In this article we show that, considering only economic effects, even if population growth, by natural increase or immigration, increases congestion, pollution, and other forms of external costs, that provided pre-existing citizens own the resources giving rise to the externalities, and provided they efficiently price usage of such, that existing citizens must, in net average terms, be better off with population growth than without it. In simple terms the increased revenues they gain from efficient pricing at increased demand levels will be strictly greater than the monetary value of the increased external costs together with the higher tax costs they incur as consumers of the resources." excerpt

  16. Measuring populism: comparing two methods of content analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rooduijn, M.; Pauwels, T.

    2011-01-01

    The measurement of populism - particularly over time and space - has received only scarce attention. In this research note two different ways to measure populism are compared: a classical content analysis and a computer-based content analysis. An analysis of political parties in the United Kingdom,

  17. Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

    OpenAIRE

    Ivan Kitov

    2006-01-01

    Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...

  18. Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

    2012-01-01

    Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

  19. AGEING POPULATION: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AMONG EUROPEAN UNION STATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura DIACONU (MAXIM

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The aging population is a global phenomenon, which has affected almost all the EU states. The consequences are very important since it affects the socio-economic environment usually on the long run. Some of them could consist in increasing the public expenditure on pensions, social security and health services, which will raise the overall burden on the working population. Sometimes, a significant reduction of the labour force will even diminish the growth rate of an economy. Considering these aspects, the present paper intends to analyse the demographic situation from the EU states, the factors that have generated it and to identify the possible future trends. To determine the evolution of the ageing population phenomenon, we have analysed some demographic indicators included in various statistical reports and databases, such as the fertility rate, the median age, the percentage of population over a certain age and the age dependency ratio.

  20. Population growth confounds phylogeographic inference in Namaqua sandgrouse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delport, Wayne; Crowe, Timothy M; Lloyd, Penn; Bloomer, Paulette

    2007-01-01

    The Namaqua sandgrouse, Pterocles namaqua, is a highly nomadic granivore of semiarid to arid habitats. As a result of nomadic movements in response to rainfall, the size of the breeding population in any one area fluctuates dramatically between breeding seasons. This high mobility in response to spatial and temporal abundance of food resources is expected to result in little population genetic structuring. Namaqua sandgrouse also shows a seasonally predictable partial migration between the southeast and northwest regions of South Africa, and a further possible north-south migration between southwestern South Africa and central Namibia. It is unclear whether birds migrating between these regions breed in only one or both regions. If populations breed in only one region of their migratory range, then population genetic structuring is predicted to occur. This study addresses Namaqua sandgrouse movements with the analysis of mitochondrial DNA control region sequences. In general, little population genetic structure was evident, yet strong signals of population growth were detected. Several populations have private alleles, which is in direct contradiction to the spatial genetic pattern expected under high levels of gene flow. We suggest that the inference of high levels of female gene flow could be an artifact of population growth and that additional loci will allow a greater understanding of Namaqua sandgrouse movements.

  1. The population growth consequences of variation in individual heterozygosity.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina M I Di Fonzo

    Full Text Available Heterozygosity has been associated with components of fitness in numerous studies across a wide range of taxa. Because heterozygosity is associated with individual performance it is also expected to be associated with population dynamics. However, investigations into the association between heterozygosity and population dynamics have been rare because of difficulties in linking evolutionary and ecological processes. The choice of heterozygosity measure is a further issue confounding such studies as it can be biased by individual differences in the frequencies of the alleles studied, the number of alleles at each locus as well as the total number of loci typed. In this study, we first examine the differences between the principal metrics used to calculate heterozygosity using long-term data from a marked population of Soay sheep (Ovis aries. Next, by means of statistical transformation of the homozygosity weighted by loci index, we determine how heterozygosity contributes to population growth in Soay sheep by modelling individual contributions to population growth (p(t(i as a function of several covariates, including sex, weight and faecal egg count--a surrogate of parasitic nematode burden in the gut. We demonstrate that although heterozygosity is associated with some components of fitness, most notably adult male reproductive success, in general it is only weakly associated with population growth.

  2. Rapid Population Growth and its Implication for Malawi

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Worldwide concern has recently focused on the negative aspects of rapid population growth for the' future as regards natural and non-renewable re- sources, energy and the environment. A United. Nations sponsored international conference on. "Environment and Development" was held in Brazil. inJune 1992 to focus ...

  3. Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-28

    Apr 28, 2016 ... Results from IDRC-supported research at the Université de Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), show that unregulated population growth — averaging 10 births per woman — combined with a lack of education and economic opportunities for impoverished youth, contribute to the proliferation ...

  4. Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

    2011-01-01

    Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

  5. Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This study seeks to investigate if unemployment has been persistence and further examines the effect of population growth on the persistence level of unemployment in Nigeria. Consequent upon these, we trace the impacts that both portends for development outcomes in Nigeria for the period 1970-2012. The technique of ...

  6. Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    an electronic database was used to retrospectively generate customised centiles using a web-based tool (www.gestation.net). The first fetal growth scan of the third trimester, as determined by ultrasound, was plotted for each patient on both the population-based and .... closer monitoring to prevent neonatal morbidity.

  7. The Vatican & Population Growth Control: Why an American Confrontation?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mumford, Stephen D.

    1983-01-01

    The Vatican, because of its position on population growth, threatens the security of all nations. Catholic countries with right-wing dictatorships cannot confront the Vatican on family planning and survive. U.S. Catholics must confront the Vatican on this issue. American lay Catholics must break the American church away from the Vatican control.…

  8. Computer Simulation of the Population Growth (Schizosaccharomyces Pombe) Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daley, Michael; Hillier, Douglas

    1981-01-01

    Describes a computer program (available from authors) developed to simulate "Growth of a Population (Yeast) Experiment." Students actively revise the counting techniques with realistically simulated haemocytometer or eye-piece grid and are reminded of the necessary dilution technique. Program can be modified to introduce such variables…

  9. The relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa: a ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This view is as a result of ritualistic adherence to narrow ideological considerations and predetermined stereotypes about Africa. From a political economy perspective, this paper re-appraises the relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa. Quantitative and qualitative evidence are drawn from the ...

  10. Communication and The Challenges of Rapid Population Growth in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    These factors include religious beliefs, customs and traditions, among others. The discourse also examined the various communication types in Africa and their appropriateness in educating Africans and their governments on the need to control high rate of population growth. Ironically, medical facilities available in African ...

  11. Comparative advantage, economic structure and growth: The case of Senegal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jiri Sejkora

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Background: Using a concept of revealed and latent comparative advantage, this article identifies relatively productive industries and industries with great potential in the slow-growing economy of Senegal. The identification of such industries allows for economic structure adjustment resulting in a higher gross domestic product (GDP growth rate. Aim: The aim of the study is to identify Senegalese long-term revealed comparative advantages and to estimate Senegalese latent comparative advantages. The analysis is focused solely on manufacturing industries because industrialisation serves as an engine of growth in developing countries. Setting: The analysis is carried out on endowment structure and international trade data (1995–2015 of Senegal and appropriate comparator economies (Tanzania, Cambodia, Lao, Vietnam and Cape Verde. Methods: To identify revealed comparative advantages, we calculate the normalised revealed comparative advantage index. To estimate latent comparative advantages, we employ a growth identification and facilitation framework. The methodology is slightly modified because the estimation is based on long-term revealed comparative advantages comparisons (rather than export shares comparisons. Results: We argue that the relatively productive manufacturing industries (with revealed comparative advantage include chemicals and manufactured goods classified chiefly by various materials. Furthermore, Senegal may have unexploited potential (i.e. latent comparative advantage in footwear and particularly in apparel production. Conclusion: In order to accelerate GDP growth rate, Senegal should focus on developing the above mentioned industries to align its economic structure with the comparative advantages and also to promote industrialisation.

  12. World population growth and the role of annual energy use per capita.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, J

    1998-09-01

    In the context of ongoing world population growth, no permanent growth in materials consumption can be sustained into the future. A sustainable future requires that the world's population stabilize. The author considers the possible coupling of the annual energy use per capita and the population growth rate for each region, and the consequences of such a connection if the world's population is to stabilize. Energy is used as a factor because it is a proactive agent in facilitating increases in the standard of living and changes in the social conditions thought to influence the fertility rate. Historical trends and near-term projections for energy use and population growth rate are used to indicate a possible future path for developing regions. Improvements in the efficiency of energy use and modest cultural changes are used in an example projection of coupled energy use and population growth. For each decade, the incremental increase in annual commercial energy use per capita and a corresponding decrease in population growth rate are chosen to continue the historical trends for developing regions of the world. This approach results in population changes which closely follow the projections of the World Bank for the period up to 2150. World energy use is projected to increase from about 9000 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) today to 15,000-21,000 Mtoe/a by the time the world's population has risen from 6 billion to about 12 billion in the 22nd century. The energy demands of each developing region are compared with potential, indigenous energy sources to determine whether each developing region may be able to cope with its increased energy demand without massive energy imports. The availability of readily moveable, cheap fuels will help the developing world make the transition to a more stable population with a decent standard of living.

  13. Growth curves for ostriches (Struthio camelus) in a Brazilian population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramos, S B; Caetano, S L; Savegnago, R P; Nunes, B N; Ramos, A A; Munari, D P

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to fit growth curves using nonlinear and linear functions to describe the growth of ostriches in a Brazilian population. The data set consisted of 112 animals with BW measurements from hatching to 383 d of age. Two nonlinear growth functions (Gompertz and logistic) and a third-order polynomial function were applied. The parameters for the models were estimated using the least-squares method and Gauss-Newton algorithm. The goodness-of-fit of the models was assessed using R(2) and the Akaike information criterion. The R(2) calculated for the logistic growth model was 0.945 for hens and 0.928 for cockerels and for the Gompertz growth model, 0.938 for hens and 0.924 for cockerels. The third-order polynomial fit gave R(2) of 0.938 for hens and 0.924 for cockerels. Among the Akaike information criterion calculations, the logistic growth model presented the lowest values in this study, both for hens and for cockerels. Nonlinear models are more appropriate for describing the sigmoid nature of ostrich growth.

  14. comparative analysis of the growth performance and haemolymph

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Dr Osondu

    4 No.2 2011. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE GROWTH PERFORMANCE AND HAEMOLYMPH .... Statistical Analysis. Data collected from the experiments were analyzed by one way analysis of variance. (ANOVA) and student- Newman kuel's test was used for the ... bigger and grow faster than albino snails. The lack of.

  15. Growth hormone in the eye: A comparative update.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Steve; Martínez-Moreno, Carlos G; Ávila-Mendoza, José; Luna, Maricela; Arámburo, Carlos

    2016-08-01

    Comparative studies have previously established that the eye is an extrapituitary site of growth hormone (GH) production and action in fish, amphibia, birds and mammals. In this review more recent literature and original data in this field are considered. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Population growth is a variable open to change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Potts, M.

    2016-12-01

    The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

  17. Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

    1982-09-01

    It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts

  18. Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Wittemyer

    Full Text Available Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing. These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults, annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years and females (21.8 years. Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly

  19. Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Axel Kristinsson

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionary theory. According to these, evolutionary principles, as expounded by Charles Darwin and subsequent evolutionary scientists, apply not only to biological evolution but also to social or cultural evolution. Here, the role of genes is taken over by culture and, since culture is much more pliable than our DNA, evolution speeds up. As the only organisms on Earth whose evolution relies as heavily on culture as on genes, humans have become extremely adaptable. Their hyper-adaptability suggest that humans, through their cultural evolution, have managed increasingly to adapt to their own growing population, thus succeeding in accommodating ever-growing numbers. This hypothesis fits the Boserupian approach to population very well but less so the Malthusian one, perhaps indicating a gradual shift from a Malthusian regime to a Boserupian one in human history. The hypothesis is discussed and examined through four case studies: The beginning of farming around Göbekli Tepe in southeast Turkey, the productive farming systems of Tiwanaku in South America, the population crisis of late medieval and early modern Iceland, and the ‘collapse’ of Rapa Nui (Easter Island.

  20. Birth weight distribution of Hospital Geral do Grajaú population compared to São Paulo city population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Ricardo Dias Bertagnon

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To compare the growth curves from a population from a large city suburban hospital with those of the city of São Paulo, São Paulo State, Brazil. Methods: At Hospital Geral do Grajaú, that serves the high pregnancy risk population lacking health facilities, of low education level and smaller number of prenatal visits and great morbidity, a growth curve was built for the newborns, as the Hospital is provided with updated equipment and personnel. The curve was built from the database available containing information on live births during the 2003 to 2007 period and totaling 9,952 newborns, as their weight at birth and gestational age were taken as parameters. The distribution curves of 3%, 10%, 50% and 90% of the Grajaú were compared to those of the city of São Paulo curve. Results: The curves did not significantly differ from those of the São Paulo curve percentiles, as shown by the mean deviation (Z score calculation, notwithstanding the higher rates for prematurity, low weight, teenager mothers and lack of prenatal visits among the Grajaú population as compared to those of São Paulo. Conclusions: The São Paulo city curve showed to be appropriate for the suburban population despite the existing differences.

  1. Comparative population structure of cavity-nesting sea ducks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearce, John M.; Eadie, John M.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Christensen, Thomas K.; Berdeen, James; Taylor, Eric J.; Boyd, Sean; Einarsson, Árni

    2014-01-01

    A growing collection of mtDNA genetic information from waterfowl species across North America suggests that larger-bodied cavity-nesting species exhibit greater levels of population differentiation than smaller-bodied congeners. Although little is known about nest-cavity availability for these species, one hypothesis to explain differences in population structure is reduced dispersal tendency of larger-bodied cavity-nesting species due to limited abundance of large cavities. To investigate this hypothesis, we examined population structure of three cavity-nesting waterfowl species distributed across much of North America: Barrow's Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica), Common Goldeneye (B. clangula), and Bufflehead (B. albeola). We compared patterns of population structure using both variation in mtDNA control-region sequences and band-recovery data for the same species and geographic regions. Results were highly congruent between data types, showing structured population patterns for Barrow's and Common Goldeneye but not for Bufflehead. Consistent with our prediction, the smallest cavity-nesting species, the Bufflehead, exhibited the lowest level of population differentiation due to increased dispersal and gene flow. Results provide evidence for discrete Old and New World populations of Common Goldeneye and for differentiation of regional groups of both goldeneye species in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the eastern coast of North America. Results presented here will aid management objectives that require an understanding of population delineation and migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering areas. Comparative studies such as this one highlight factors that may drive patterns of genetic diversity and population trends.

  2. Linear age-dependent population growth with seasonal harvesting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez, D A

    1980-06-01

    A population growth is modelled by the Von Foerster PDE with accompanying Lotka-Volterra integral equation describing the birth rate; the age specific death and fertility rates are assumed to depend only on age and not time. A harvesting policy where a fraction of the population of age greater than a given age is harvested for a fraction of a given season. This introduces a time dependence, but this difficulty is circumvented by devising approximate time-independent models whose birthrates bracket the true birthrate--the standard renewal equation theory applies to the approximate models so quantitative results can be obtained.

  3. The slowdown in population growth: causes and consequences.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willmann, H; Hoyt, S

    1989-01-01

    U.S. population trends are projected using data from the Bureau of the Census. The focus is on the economic consequences of these trends. The authors conclude that the economic impact will be relatively slight up to the year 2000. "After 2000, the changes to the economic outlook will be more significant. The aging of the population will accelerate and the pace of economic growth is likely to slow even further. More resources will be devoted to caring for the elderly, while public and private pension systems will need to draw down savings to provide for the retirement of the baby-boom generation." excerpt

  4. Growth rates in a captive population of Tonkean macaques.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanna, Andrea; De Marco, Arianna; Thierry, Bernard; Cozzolino, Roberto

    2015-07-01

    Measuring variations in body mass is necessary to gain a deeper understanding of the evolution of life-history patterns, and it provides information on the timing of sexual maturity and the development of sexual dimorphism. In this study, we collected longitudinal data on body mass from infancy to adulthood in a captive population of Tonkean macaques (Macaca tonkeana). Tests to evaluate whether social group, maternal age, and dominance rank influenced growth rates showed that they had no significant effect. We investigated the timing and magnitude of breaking points in the growth paths of males and females, and checked whether these breaking points could correspond to specific reproductive and morphological developmental events. We found that male and female Tonkean macaques have roughly equivalent body masses until around the age of four, when males go through an adolescent growth spurt and females continue to grow at a constant rate. Males not only grow faster than females, but they also continue to grow for nearly one and a half years after females have attained their full body mass. Growth rate differences account for approximately two-thirds of the body mass sexual dimorphism; only the remaining third results from continued male growth beyond the age where full body mass is reached in females. We also discovered remarkable correspondences between the timing of testicular enlargement and the adolescent growth spurt in males, and between dental development and slowdown breaking points in both sexes.

  5. Population growth in colonial America: A study of Ipswich, Massachusetts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norton, S L

    1971-11-01

    Abstract During the colonial period, the settlements that subsequently became the United States of America experienced a tremendous growth of population. Although part of this increase was due to emigration from England and other European countries, most of the growth must be laid to the natural increase of the immigrants and their descendants. We are only beginning to probe the mechanisms ofthis increase. By numerous local studies, using the methods of historical demography that have largely been developed with work in French and English sources, we should eventually be able to describe the demographic nature of New World communities, and to understand how their populations were responding to a new physical, social and economic environment.

  6. Comparing graphene growth on Cu(111) versus oxidized Cu(111).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gottardi, Stefano; Müller, Kathrin; Bignardi, Luca; Moreno-López, Juan Carlos; Pham, Tuan Anh; Ivashenko, Oleksii; Yablonskikh, Mikhail; Barinov, Alexei; Björk, Jonas; Rudolf, Petra; Stöhr, Meike

    2015-02-11

    The epitaxial growth of graphene on catalytically active metallic surfaces via chemical vapor deposition (CVD) is known to be one of the most reliable routes toward high-quality large-area graphene. This CVD-grown graphene is generally coupled to its metallic support resulting in a modification of its intrinsic properties. Growth on oxides is a promising alternative that might lead to a decoupled graphene layer. Here, we compare graphene on a pure metallic to graphene on an oxidized copper surface in both cases grown by a single step CVD process under similar conditions. Remarkably, the growth on copper oxide, a high-k dielectric material, preserves the intrinsic properties of graphene; it is not doped and a linear dispersion is observed close to the Fermi energy. Density functional theory calculations give additional insight into the reaction processes and help explaining the catalytic activity of the copper oxide surface.

  7. Philippine laws, regulations back policy to contain population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-01-01

    A recent compilation of population related decrees promulgated since martial law was declared in the Philippines in 1972 indicates that the government may be designing a legal framework encouraging voluntary limitation of family size. The list which was published in an appendix to the 1974-1977 Population Program, reveals that population influencing policies dealing with taxation, maternity benefits, incentive schemes and provision of family planning services by employers are already in effect. Since 1972 tax relief has been restricted to 4 dependents. Paid maternity leave is limited to the first 4 deliveries. Firms with over 300 employees are required to set up family planning clinics, and smaller firms must have infirmary personnel who are trained and certified in the provision of family planning services. Also, the Department of Labor is encouraging employers to develop incentive programs that will encourage workers to use effective family planning methods. The latest population plan also gives top priority to research, calls for targeting information to labor leaders, engaged couples, and out of school youth, and proposes disseminating population and family planning information through residential cooperatives and grass roots organizations. The aim of the current plan is to reduce the birthrate to 35.9 per 100 and the population growth rate to 2.47% by the end of the 4 year period. It is projected that by 1977 58% of the eligible population will be practicing contraception.

  8. [The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banguero, H

    1983-05-01

    This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

  9. Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, R P

    1989-01-01

    This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

  10. Population growth and economic development: the case of Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coale, A J

    1978-01-01

    A review of events in Mexico since the publication in 1958 of Coale and Hoover's "Population Growth and Economic Development in Low Income Countries," in which they concluded that a low income country with high fertility would achieve better progress if it could reduce its fertility than if it did not do so. India and Mexico were the cases considered. Over the 20 years from 1955-75 the population of Mexico more than doubled, slightly exceeding Coale and Hoover's high projections. During that time Mexico saw substantial economic progress: a 72% increase in the proportion of primary school age children actually attending school; a 26% increase in literacy; an 89% increase in per capita income at constant prices; a 38% increase in the urban population; and a 27% rise in the average duration of life. These figures reveal the error of assuming that rapid population increase in a poor country leads inevitably to malnutrition, impoverishment, and social collapse, but also show that economic development does not automatically lead to a slowing of population growth. If Mexican fertility had fallen beginning in 1955, the population under 15 would have been most effected. The income per equivalent adult consumer might have been higher, the gains in school attendance and literacy might have covered a larger percentage of the population, and declining rather than increasing absolute numbers of persons might have been unaffected by the gains. Creation of employment opportunities for fewer persons entering the labor force would have been easier than for the large number of new entrants who will need work over the next 20 years.

  11. Mathematical modelling of human growth: A comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shumei; Siervogel, Roger M; Roche, Alex F; Chumlea, Wm Cameron

    1992-01-01

    Kernel regression is a nonparametric procedure that provides good approximations to individual serial data. The method is useful and flexible when a parametric method is inappropriate due to restricted assumptions on the shape of the curve. In the present study, we compared kernel regression in fitting human stature growth with two models, one of which incorporates the possible existence of the midgrowth spurt while the other does not. Two families of mathematical functions and a nonparametric kernel regression were fitted to serial measures of stature on 227 participants enrolled in the Fels Longitudinal Study. The growth parameters that describe the timing, magnitude, and duration of the growth spurt, such as midgrowth spurt and pubertal spurts, were derived from the fitted models and kernel regression for each participant. The two parametric models and kernel regression were compared in regard to their overall goodness of fit and their capabilities to quantify the timing, rate of increase, and duration of the growth events. The Preece-Baines model does not describe the midgrowth spurt. The dervied growth parameters from the Preece-Baines model show an earlier onset and a longer duration of the pubertal spurt, and a slower increase in velocity. The kernel regression with bandwidth 2 years and a second-order polynomial kernel function yields relatively good fits compared with the triple logistic model. The derived biological parameters for the pubertal spurt are similar between the kernel regression and the triple logistic model. Kernel regression estimates an earlier onset and a more rapid increase of velocity for the midgrowth spurt. Copyright © 1992 Wiley-Liss, Inc., A Wiley Company.

  12. Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

    2017-01-01

    We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.

  13. Comparing growth of ponderosa pine in two growing media

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. Kasten Dumroese

    2009-01-01

    I compared growth of container ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) seedlings grown in a 1:1 (v:v) Sphagnum peat moss:coarse vermiculite medium (P:V) and a 7:3 (v:v) Sphagnum peat moss:Douglas-fir sawdust medium (P:S) at three different irrigation regimes. By using exponential fertilization techniques, I was able to supply seedlings with similar amounts...

  14. Seed limitation restricts population growth in shaded populations of a perennial woodland orchid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacquemyn, Hans; Brys, Rein; Jongejans, Eelke

    2010-01-01

    Seed production and seedling recruitment are thought to be of minor importance in determining population dynamics and long-term viability in long-lived perennial plants. Seed addition experiments, on the other hand, have amply shown that supplemental addition of seeds almost always, irrespective of longevity, results in increased seedling recruitment. Any change in the environment that affects fruit and seed production can thus be expected to affect seedling recruitment, but the extent to which increased fruit and seed production affect overall population dynamics remains relatively unknown. In this paper, we present demographic data of six populations of the long-lived woodland orchid Orchis purpurea that were monitored for seven consecutive years (2002-2008) occurring in two contrasting light environments. We use a nested life table response experiment (LTRE) at the vital rate level to disentangle the relative contributions of each of six annual transitions, six sites, and two light environments on the population dynamics of this species and to determine vital rate variations that contributed most to variation in population growth rate. Population growth rates (lamda) were significantly higher in the light environment than in the shaded environment (average lamda = 0.9930 and 1.0492 in the shaded and light environment, respectively). The LTRE analysis showed that variation in fecundity and, to a lesser extent, variation in growth made the largest total contributions to variation in lamda, whereas the contributions of variation in survival were almost negligible. Fruit production was two times larger and the net reproductive rate (R0) was approximately six times higher in the light environment than in shaded areas, suggesting that variables related to reproduction are the key drivers of population dynamics of this long-lived orchid species in different light environments. Our results indicate that light is an important factor affecting population dynamics of

  15. Minimal models of growth and decline of microbial populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Juška, Alfonsas

    2011-01-21

    Dynamics of growth and decline of microbial populations were analysed and respective models were developed in this investigation. Analysis of the dynamics was based on general considerations concerning the main properties of microorganisms and their interactions with the environment which was supposed to be affected by the activity of the population. Those considerations were expressed mathematically by differential equations or systems of the equations containing minimal sets of parameters characterizing those properties. It has been found that: (1) the factors leading to the decline of the population have to be considered separately, namely, accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium and the exhaustion of resources; the latter have to be separated again into renewable ('building materials') and non-renewable (sources of energy); (2) decline of the population is caused by the exhaustion of sources of energy but no decline is predicted by the model because of the exhaustion of renewable resources; (3) the model determined by the accumulation of metabolites (toxins) in the medium does not suggest the existence of a separate 'stationary phase'; (4) in the model determined by the exhaustion of energy resources the 'stationary' and 'decline' phases are quite discernible; and (5) there is no symmetry in microbial population dynamics, the decline being slower than the rise. Mathematical models are expected to be useful in getting insight into the process of control of the dynamics of microbial populations. The models are in agreement with the experimental data. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Apocalypse when? Population growth and food supply in South Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenspan, A

    1994-12-01

    Food demands for staple grains are expected to almost double over the next 25 years in South Asia, due to population growth and increased standards of living. Trends in the mid-1990s suggest that neither pessimism nor optimism prevails in the region. There is wide diversity among and within countries. Trends suggest that population densities are already the highest in the world, and the amount of arable land is declining. Urban growth has moved onto farm land and farmers have been pushed onto more marginal lands or have become landless. Land intensification has produced mixed results. Cereal production per capita has increased since the 1950s in India, with about 75% of the region's population, but Pakistan's increases were not sustained into the 1980s. Average daily caloric intake per person in the region of 2214 is below the level in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Bangladesh, levels are particularly worrisome at 2037. The environmental impact has not been easily quantified, but experts have suggested that pressure on farm land has contributed to loss of soil fertility and water resource loss. Further intensification of farming is feasible, but difficult and more expensive than in the past. Regardless of production problems and solutions, there is also the very real problem of poor food distribution and lack of purchasing power. Farm management skills must be utilized, if environmental degradation is to be avoided. There is the added unknown of what climate changes will occur and how agricultural production will be affected. The policy implications are that increased food production must be made a political priority. Policies must support agricultural research into improved technologies and support distribution of technological advances to a wider number of farmers. Rural infrastructures such as roads, market outlets, and credit agencies must be established. Policies must be removed that disadvantage farmers, such as inappropriate subsidies for irrigation water

  17. A Comparative Analysis of Bacterial Growth with Earphone Use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiranjay Mukhopadhyay

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Recently the worldwide usage of earphones has increased especially among the school and college students who have a high rate of sharing among them. Alike airline headsets, headphones and stethoscope ear-pieces, ear phones can easily be a vector of potential pathogens, which can give rise to otitis externa. Purpose: To compare the bacterial growth of the external ear in association with earphone and assess the role of earphones as vector or microorganisms. Material and Methods: 50 voluntary male subjects (age 18-25 years were chosen and divided into two groups, A and B, according to the use of earphones. Swabs were taken from their left ear and the left earpiece of the earphone. Samples were processed as recommended. Results: In group A, bacteria were found in 20 (80% ear and 14 (56% earphone swabs. In group B, bacteria were found in 23 (92% ear and 17 (68% earphone swabs. Group B showed heavy growth and a significant increase in the number of bacterial growths after frequent and constant use. Conclusion: Frequent and constant use of earphones increases the bacterial growth in the ear and sharing of earphones might be a potential vector of commensals. It is therefore, always better not to share or else to clean the earphones before sharing.

  18. Selection for life-history traits to maximize population growth in an invasive marine species

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jaspers, Cornelia; Marty, Lise; Kiørboe, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Species establishing outside their natural range, negatively impacting local ecosystems, are of increasing global concern. They often display life-history features characteristic for r-selected populations with fast growth and high reproduction rates to achieve positive population growth rates (r......) in invaded habitats. Here, we demonstrate substantially earlier maturation at a 2 orders of magnitude lower body mass at first reproduction in invasive compared to native populations of the comb jelly Mnemiopsis leidyi. Empirical results are corroborated by a theoretical model for competing life......-history traits that predicts maturation at the smallest possible size to optimize r, while individual lifetime reproductive success (R0 ), optimized in native populations, is near constant over a large range of intermediate maturation sizes. We suggest that high variability in reproductive tactics in native...

  19. A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

    CERN Document Server

    Kapitza, Sergei P

    1996-01-01

    Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...

  20. Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

    1997-01-01

    Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

  1. Comparing population health in the United States and Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huguet Nathalie

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of the paper is to compare population health in the United States (US and Canada. Although the two countries are very similar in many ways, there are potentially important differences in the levels of social and economic inequality and the organization and financing of and access to health care in the two countries. Methods Data are from the Joint Canada/United States Survey of Health 2002/03. The Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3 was used to measure overall health-related quality of life (HRQL. Mean HUI3 scores were compared, adjusting for major determinants of health, including body mass index, smoking, education, gender, race, and income. In addition, estimates of life expectancy were compared. Finally, mean HUI3 scores by age and gender and Canadian and US life tables were used to estimate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE. Results Life expectancy in Canada is higher than in the US. For those Conclusions The population of Canada appears to be substantially healthier than the US population with respect to life expectancy, HRQL, and HALE. Factors that account for the difference may include access to health care over the full life span (universal health insurance and lower levels of social and economic inequality, especially among the elderly.

  2. Anthropometric growth study of the ear in a Chinese population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shichun; Li, Dianguo; Liu, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yibiao; Liu, Lei; Jiang, Duyin; Pan, Bo

    2017-10-20

    A large number of anthropometric studies of the auricle have been reported in different nations, but little data were available in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to analyze growth changes in the ear by measuring the width and length of ears in a Chinese population. A total of 480 participants were enrolled and classified into 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 12-, 14-, and 18-year groups (half were boys and half were girls in each group). Ear length, ear width, body weight, and body length were measured and recorded; ear index was calculated according to ear length and ear width. The growth of auricle and differences between genders were analyzed. Growth of ear in relation to body height and weight and the degree of emphasis on the length and width of the auricle were also analyzed. Ear length and width increased with age. Ear length achieved its mature size in both 14-year-old males and females. Ear width reached its mature size in males at 7 years and in females at 5 years. Different trends of ear index were shown between males and females. People in this population paid more attention to the length than the width of the auricle. The data indicated that ear development followed increase in age. There were gender and ethnic difference in the development of ear. These results may have potential implications for the diagnosis of congenital malformations, syndromes, and planning of ear reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Population growth and the demographic transition in Kenya.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wortham, R A

    1993-06-01

    Population growth is traced in Kenya for the periods 1895 to 1948 and 1948 to 1992. Analysis of Kenya's recent fertility patterns is based on the processes in demographic transition and on studies by Petersen, Caldwell, and Chenais. The transition stages are identified as follows: the predevelopment stage during 1895-1921, the underdeveloped stage during 1921-77, the stabilization of the high rate of natural population increase during 1977-90, and the entrance into the transition or developing stage from the 1980s to the present. The expectation is that the transition will continue to 2010. A complete transition by 2025 requires an annual population growth rate of 1%. Fertility patterns during 1977-89 revealed a reduction in the total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.2 children. The TFR in 1989 among currently married women aged 15-49 years with no formal education was 7.2 children. Women with secondary education had a TFR of 4.9 children. Urban women had a TFR of 4.8 children, while rural women had a TFR of 7.1 children. The ideal family size in 1989 was 4.4 children, which is a decline of 1.4 children from 1984. Ideal family size among currently married women aged 20-24 years was 3.9. Structural changes occurred since 1967, whereby annual economic growth rates exceeded population growth rates. High fertility levels are supported by the traditional role of women in satisfying subsistence needs, and the use of children for farm labor, social security, and access to the land. Family structural changes (an increased number of households headed by females) may lead to lower fertility because of the high costs of child rearing. The declines among urban polygamous marriages and women with no formal education may not reduce fertility. Decreased rotation of intercourse among polygynous women could mean increases in fertility. Monogamous unions tend to have higher fertility than polygamous unions. Marriage may have a lesser impact on fertility regulation, if marriage age and the

  4. An equivalence theorem concerning population growth in a variable environment

    OpenAIRE

    Ray Redheffer; Vance, Richard R.

    2003-01-01

    We give conditions under which two solutions x and y of the Kolmogorov equation x˙=xf(t,x) satisfy limy(t)/x(t)=1 as t→∞. This conclusion is important for two reasons: it shows that the long-time behavior of the population is independent of the initial condition and it applies to ecological systems in which the coefficients are time dependent. Our first application is to an equation of Weissing and Huisman for growth and competition in a light gradient. Our second application is to a nonauton...

  5. Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

    2011-08-01

    Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

  6. [Environmental pollution and population growth in Latin America].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viel, B

    1983-01-01

    3 factors are always involved in causation of infectious disease: the causal organism, an adverse environment, and nutritional status. As knowledge of degenerative and mental illnesses advances, their relationship to environmental problems becomes clearer. Health in the human being as in all living things is the product of ecological equilibrium. In countries with high mortality rates, the majority of deaths occur in the early years of life. Countries enjoying low mortality rates are those that have protected themselves against environmental deterioration. The Roman civilization, the 1st to have large cities, built aqueducts to protect the water supply from contamination. With the disappearance of the Roman Empire the concern for purity of the water supply also disappeared, and the cities of the Middle Ages became breeding grounds for epidemics. In the early 19th century John Snow demonstrated the role of water in the transmission of cholera and thereafter the concern with potable water and sewage disposal was reborn. The Industrial Revolution eventually allowed sufficient accumulation of wealth to permit improved nutrition. Environmental sanitation and improved food supply produced a new ecological equilibrium, and Western Europe began to have lower and lower mortality rates. Paralleling the decline in deaths a new spirit of responsible parenthood and delayed marriage was lowering birth rates. Population growth, which never exceeded 1%, had the additional escape valve of emigration to America and Australia. The true cause of environmental degradation is man. When human beings were few their contaminants were readily obsorbed by the environment, but as they proliferate the environment is increasingly unable to absorb their pollution by natural processes. Industrial fumes, deforestation, and polluted rivers are only the symptoms of contamination. In the developed countries, technological innovations minimizing industrial pollution and lower population growth are

  7. Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

    1974-01-01

    Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

  8. Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

    2007-01-01

    Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

  9. Growth retardation in artistic compared with rhythmic elite female gymnasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgopoulos, Neoklis A; Markou, Kostas B; Theodoropoulou, Anastasia; Benardot, Dan; Leglise, Michel; Vagenakis, Apostolos G

    2002-07-01

    We studied 129 female rhythmic gymnasts (RG) and 142 female artistic gymnasts (AG) who participated in the 1999 Gymnastics World Championship for RG in Osaka, Japan, and the 1999 and 2001 Gymnastics World Championships for AG in Tianjin, China (n = 48), and Ghent, Belgium (n = 94), respectively. RG were taller than average, with a mean height SD score above the 50th percentile, whereas AG were relatively short, with a mean height SD score below the 50th percentile. Both RG and AG followed their respective reported target height SD score, which was above the 50th percentile for the RG and below the 50th percentile for the AG. The RG followed a growth pattern that was higher than their reported target height, whereas AG exhibited a negative growth pattern. RG and AG weighed less than the population mean, with the mean weight for age below the 50th percentile for both groups. RG were taller than AG (t = 17.15; P < 0.001), with a higher reported target height SD score (t = 6.44; P < 0.001), a greater Delta height-reported target height (t = 2.74; P < 0.001), and a lower mean body fat (t = -11.83; P < 0.001) and body mass index (t = -10.73; P < 0.001) than AG. AG started their training at an earlier age than RG (t = 4.13; P < 0.001). Using multiple regression analysis, actual height SD score was independently influenced positively by weight SD score for both RG (b = 0.421; t = 4.317; P < 0.001) and AG (b = 1.404; t = 16.514; P = <0.001), and by reported target height only for RG (b = 0.299; t = 3.139; P = 0.002), and negatively by body mass index only for AG (b = -0.80; t = -9.88; P < 0.001). In conclusion, in elite female AG, a deterioration of growth potential was observed, whereas in RG the genetic predisposition to growth was preserved.

  10. Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

    2008-08-01

    We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

  11. Modelling breast cancer tumour growth for a stable disease population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isheden, Gabriel; Humphreys, Keith

    2017-01-01

    Statistical models of breast cancer tumour progression have been used to further our knowledge of the natural history of breast cancer, to evaluate mammography screening in terms of mortality, to estimate overdiagnosis, and to estimate the impact of lead-time bias when comparing survival times between screen detected cancers and cancers found outside of screening programs. Multi-state Markov models have been widely used, but several research groups have proposed other modelling frameworks based on specifying an underlying biological continuous tumour growth process. These continuous models offer some advantages over multi-state models and have been used, for example, to quantify screening sensitivity in terms of mammographic density, and to quantify the effect of body size covariates on tumour growth and time to symptomatic detection. As of yet, however, the continuous tumour growth models are not sufficiently developed and require extensive computing to obtain parameter estimates. In this article, we provide a detailed description of the underlying assumptions of the continuous tumour growth model, derive new theoretical results for the model, and show how these results may help the development of this modelling framework. In illustrating the approach, we develop a model for mammography screening sensitivity, using a sample of 1901 post-menopausal women diagnosed with invasive breast cancer.

  12. Quality of life in patients with gastroschisis is comparable with the general population: A questionnaire survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frybova, Barbora; Kokesova, Alena; Zemkova, Daniela; Mixa, Vladimir; Vlk, Radovan; Rygl, Michal

    2017-03-01

    To evaluate long-term quality of life and somatic growth of patients with gastroschisis and compare them with the general population. We performed a questionnaire survey of the quality of life of our patients treated between 2004-2012. A questionnaire was sent to our 56 patients with gastroschisis, 38 mothers of patients (68%) responded to the questionnaire. 33 of 38 mothers claim that the quality of life of their child is very good, 4 of them responded that it is good. 1 mother confessed that the quality of life was very poor. Anthropometric data show comparable results with the standard population except for patients of 1 year of age who still have lower weight (Plife without limitation in comparison with the general population. The presented anthropometric data confirm that the development of patients with gastroschisis is favourable.

  13. Growth of the human lens in the Indian adult population: Preliminary observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashik Mohamed

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: The eye lens grows throughout life by the addition of new cells inside the surrounding capsule. How this growth affects the properties of the lens is essential for understanding disorders such as cataract and presbyopia. Aims: To examine growth of the human lens in the Indian population and compare this with the growth in Western populations by measuring in vitro dimensions together with wet and dry weights. Settings and Design: The study was conducted at the research wing of a tertiary eye care center in South India and the study design was prospective. Materials and Methods: Lenses were removed from eye bank eyes and their dimensions measured with a digital caliper. They were then carefully blotted dry and weighed before being placed in 5% buffered formalin. After 1 week fixation, the lenses were dried at 80 °C until constant weight was achieved. The constant weight was noted as the dry weight of the lens. Statistical Analysis Used: Lens parameters were analyzed as a function of age using linear and logarithmic regression methods. Results: Data were obtained for 251 lenses, aged 16-93 years, within a median postmortem time of 22 h. Both wet and dry weights increased linearly at 1.24 and 0.44 mg/year, respectively, throughout adult life. The dimensions also increased continuously throughout this time. Conclusions: Over the age range examined, lens growth in the Indian population is very similar to that in Western populations.

  14. A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

    2015-07-14

    The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

  15. Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. I. Tajul

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.. Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000 plants ha−1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha−1 were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI, yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha−1 receiving 220 kg N ha−1, while relative growth rate (RGR showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha−1. Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha−1 with 80,000 plants ha−1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob−1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha−1 and the maximum harvest index (HI compared to the plants in other treatments.

  16. World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharpless, J

    1995-01-01

    The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

  17. Genomic prediction for growth and reproduction traits in pig using an admixed reference population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, H; Zhang, J; Jiang, Y; Gao, H; Tang, S; Mi, S; Yu, F; Meng, Q; Xiao, W; Zhang, Q; Ding, X

    2017-08-01

    This study investigated the efficiency of genomic prediction using an admixed reference population comprising 3 Yorkshire populations with different genetic backgrounds. In total, 2,084 and 1,388 individuals with growth and reproduction records, respectively, were genotyped with a PorcineSNP80 marker panel. The corrected phenotypic values derived from conventional EBV of each population were taken as response variables. Three approaches, that is, a linear genomic BLUP (GBLUP) model, a Bayesian mixture model (BayesR), and single-step GBLUP (ssGBLUP), were implemented to predict genomic breeding values. Our results indicated that the accuracy of genomic prediction was increased by enlarging the reference population by admixing different populations. However, the improvement was lower than expected, because the relationships among individuals of different populations were not strong enough. Among the 3 approaches, for reproduction and growth traits, ssGBLUP produced 30 to approximately 38% and 23 to 31%, respectively, higher accuracy than GBLUP. And the ssGBLUP produced 28 to approximately 38% and 18 to approximately 31% higher accuracy than BayesR. In addition, ssGBLUP also yielded lower bias. In most situations, BayesR performed comparably to GBLUP for most traits. Our results indicated ssGBLUP using an admixed reference population is also meaningful for national joint genetic evaluation of Chinese pig breeding.

  18. Comparative metatranscriptomics reveals decline of a neustonic planktonic population

    KAUST Repository

    Mojib, Nazia

    2016-10-20

    The neuston layer in tropical seas provides a good model to study the effects of increased levels of different stressors (e.g., temperature, ultraviolet radiation and Trichodesmium blooms). Here, we use a comparative in situ metatranscriptomics approach to reveal the functional genomic composition of metabolically active neustonic mesozooplankton community in response to the summer conditions in the Red Sea. The neustonic population exhibited changes in composition and abundance with a significant decline in copepods and appendicularia in July, when Trichodesmium cells were more abundant along with high temperatures and UV-B radiation. Nearly 23,000 genes were differentially expressed at the community level when the metatranscriptomes of the neustonic zooplankton were compared in April, July, and October. On a wider Phylum level, the genes related to oxidative phosphorylation, carbon, nucleotides, amino acids, and lipids were significantly overrepresented in both arthropods and chordates in April and October. On organism level for copepods, expression of genes responsive to oxidative stress, defense against bacteria, immune response, and virus reproduction were increased along with the observed increased appearance of copepod carcasses in the samples collected during July. The differences in expression correspond either to secondary effects of the Trichodesmium bloom or more likely to the increased UV-B radiation in July. Given the dearth of information on the zooplankton gene expression in response to environmental stimuli, our study provides the first transcriptome landscape of the mesozooplankton community during a period of increased mortality of the copepod and appendicularia population.

  19. Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

  20. Biogeochemical implications of comparative growth rates of Emiliania huxleyi and Coccolithus species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniels, C. J.; Sheward, R. M.; Poulton, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    Coccolithophores, a diverse group of phytoplankton, make important contributions to pelagic calcite production and export, yet the comparative biogeochemical role of species other than the ubiquitous Emiliania huxleyi is poorly understood. The contribution of different coccolithophore species to total calcite production is controlled by inter-species differences in cellular calcite, growth rate and relative abundance within a mixed community. In this study we examined the relative importance of E. huxleyi and two Coccolithus species in terms of daily calcite production. Culture experiments compared growth rates and cellular calcite content of E. huxleyi (Arctic and temperate strains), Coccolithus pelagicus (novel Arctic strain) and Coccolithus braarudii (temperate strain). Despite assumptions that E. huxleyi is a fast-growing species, growth rates between the three species were broadly comparable (0.16-0.85 d-1) under identical temperature and light conditions. Emiliania huxleyi grew only 12% faster on average than C. pelagicus, and 28% faster than C. braarudii. As the cellular calcite content of C. pelagicus and C. braarudii is typically 30-80 times greater than E. huxleyi, comparable growth rates suggest that Coccolithus species have the potential to be major calcite producers in mixed populations. To further explore these results we devised a simplistic model comparing daily calcite production from Coccolithus and E. huxleyi across a realistic range of relative abundances and a wide range of relative growth rates. Using the relative differences in growth rates from our culture studies, we found that C. pelagicus would be a larger source of calcite if abundances of E. huxleyi to C. pelagicus were below 34:1. Relative abundance data collected from North Atlantic field samples (spring and summer 2010) suggest that, with a relative growth rate of 88%, C. pelagicus dominated calcite production at 69% of the sites sampled. With a more extreme difference in growth

  1. An equivalence theorem concerning population growth in a variable environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray Redheffer

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We give conditions under which two solutions x and y of the Kolmogorov equation x˙=xf(t,x satisfy limy(t/x(t=1 as t→∞. This conclusion is important for two reasons: it shows that the long-time behavior of the population is independent of the initial condition and it applies to ecological systems in which the coefficients are time dependent. Our first application is to an equation of Weissing and Huisman for growth and competition in a light gradient. Our second application is to a nonautonomous generalization of the Turner-Bradley-Kirk-Pruitt equation, which even before generalization, includes several problems of ecological interest.

  2. Comparing shame in clinical and nonclinical populations: Preliminary findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dyer, Kevin F W; Dorahy, Martin J; Corry, Mary; Black, Rebecca; Matheson, Laura; Coles, Holly; Curran, David; Seager, Lenaire; Middleton, Warwick

    2017-03-01

    To conduct a preliminary study comparing different trauma and clinical populations on types of shame coping style and levels of state shame and guilt. A mixed independent groups/correlational design was employed. Participants were recruited by convenience sampling of 3 clinical populations-complex trauma (n = 65), dissociative identity disorder (DID; n = 20), and general mental health (n = 41)-and a control group of healthy volunteers (n = 125). All participants were given (a) the Compass of Shame Scale, which measures the four common shame coping behaviors/styles of "withdrawal," "attack self," "attack other," and "avoidance," and (b) the State Shame and Guilt Scale, which assesses state shame, guilt, and pride. The DID group exhibited significantly higher levels of "attack self," "withdrawal," and "avoidance" relative to the other groups. The complex trauma and general mental health groups did not differ on any shame variable. All three clinical groups had significantly greater levels of the "withdrawal" coping style and significantly impaired shame/guilt/pride relative to the healthy volunteers. "Attack self" emerged as a significant predictor of increased state shame in the complex trauma, general mental health, and healthy volunteer groups, whereas "withdrawal" was the sole predictor of state shame in the DID group. DID emerged as having a different profile of shame processes compared to the other clinical groups, whereas the complex trauma and general mental health groups had comparable shame levels and variable relationships. These differential profiles of shame coping and state shame are discussed with reference to assessment and treatment. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  3. The problem of population and growth: a review of the literature from Malthus to contemporary models of endogenous population and endogenous growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehrlich, I; Lui, F

    1997-01-01

    This review traces the evolution of literature on population and economic growth through the main paradigms suggested to explain the observed covariation of per capita income and population levels (or their rates of growth) over time and space, and determine which public policies will improve the human condition. As the main paradigms evolved, key variables were progressively treated as endogenous (instead of exogenous) to the growth process. After the introduction, section 2 looks at the "classical model" of Malthusian population theory and its refinements. Section 3 identifies empirical data that bears on the secular and cross-sectional association between levels of rates of growth of population and per capita income. The inconsistency of these data with the classical model helps explain declining interest in this model over time and increased interest in a more systematic type of population and growth theory. The beginning of this new interest is traced in section 4 with a look at the "neo-classical growth model" and the reformulated theory of population, which was based on Becker's work on fertility behavior. The first line of inquiry branching from these theoretical works (section 5) treats population as an endogenous variable in static and dynamic settings. The second line of inquiry (section 6) analyzes population and growth within a unified model of growth and development. In section 7, recent studies of key policy issues (population control policies, mandatory social security schemes) are surveyed. The concluding section notes that contemporary research must face the challenge of providing additional insights into longevity as an aspect of economic growth and development and of developing a model of endogenous population and economic growth based on heterogeneous agents.

  4. Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

    2000-06-01

    Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives.

  5. Energy policy: Comparative effects on minority population groups

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Poyer, D.A.; Henderson, L.

    1995-06-01

    For a number of years, analyses of minority household energy demand have been supported by the United States Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Economic Impact and Diversity (formerly the Office of Minority Economic Impact). The intention of these analyses has been to characterize patterns of energy demand by various demographic, regional and socioeconomic groups and to develop analytical tools to assess the distributive impact of energy prices and policy on these groups. The model supports strategic objectives outlined by the Department of Energy to explicitly recognize and promote equity in state public utility commission decisions and to assess the potential impact of federal and state energy policy on demographically diverse groups as reported in the Department`s Annual Energy Outlook and the upcoming National Energy Policy Plan. The legislation mandating the Office of Economic Impact and Diversity had been premised on the assumption that patterns of energy demand for minority households are different from the population as a whole. Determining the validity of this premise and its potential economic impact on different population groups has been a major objective of these analyses. Consequently, the recripriocal impacts of energy policy on demographic groups and energy consumption and expenditure dynamics on policy formulation and strategy is a central objective of these studies. Residential energy demand research has been substantial in the past twenty years. Insightful and useful research has been done in this area. However, none of this research has addressed the potential differences in the residential energy demand structure among various population groups. Recent work does compare energy and electricity demand elasticities for non-Latino Whites, with the demand elasticities for Latinos and Blacks. This research is particularly important for examination of questions related to the economic welfare implications of national energy policy.

  6. Effect of microstructure on population growth parameters of Escherichia coli in gelatin-dextran systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boons, Kathleen; Noriega, Estefanía; Van den Broeck, Rob; David, Charlotte C; Hofkens, Johan; Van Impe, Jan F

    2014-09-01

    Current literature acknowledges the effect of food structure on bacterial dynamics. Most studies introduce this "structure" factor using a single gelling agent, resulting in a homogeneous environment, whereas in practice most food products are heterogeneous. Therefore, this study focuses on heterogeneous protein-polysaccharide mixtures, based on gelatin and dextran. These mixtures show phase separation, leading to a range of heterogeneous microstructures by adjusting relative concentrations of both gelling agents. Based on confocal microscope observations, the growth of Escherichia coli in gelatin-dextran systems was observed to occur in the dextran phase. To find a relation between microscopic and population behavior, growth experiments were performed in binary and singular gelatin-dextran systems and culture broth at 23.5°C, with or without adding 2.9% (wt/vol) NaCl. The Baranyi and Roberts growth model was fitted to the experimental data and parameter estimates were statistically compared. For salted binary mixtures, a decrease in the population maximum cell density was observed with increasing gelatin concentration. In this series, for one type of microstructure, i.e., a gelatin matrix phase with a disperse dextran phase, the maximum cell density decreased with decreasing percentage of dextran phase. However, this relation no longer held when other types of microstructure were observed. Compared to singular systems, adding a second gelling agent in the presence of NaCl had an effect on population lag phases and maximum cell densities. For unsalted media, the growth parameters of singular and binary mixtures were comparable. Introducing this information into mathematical models leads to more reliable growth predictions and enhanced food safety. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  7. Econometric Based Modeling of Population Growth under Socio-cultual Constraints

    CERN Document Server

    Ausloos, Marcel; Herteliu, Claudiu; Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile

    2015-01-01

    There are many constraints on population growth or decay in a country: several are of socio-economic origins. Sometimes cultual constraints also exist: sexual intercourse is banned in various religions, during Nativity and Lent fasting periods. We analyzed data consisting of registered daily birth records for very long (35,429 points) time series and many (24,947,061) babies in Romania between 1905 and 2001 (97 years). The data was obtained from the 1992 and 2002 censuses. We grouped the population into two categories (Eastern Orthodox and Non-Orthodox) in order to distinguish cultual constraints. We performed extensive data analysis in a comparative manner for both groups. From such a long time series data analysis, it seems that the Lent fast has a more drastic effect than the Nativity fast over baby conception within the Eastern Orthodox population, thereby differently increasing the population ratio. Thereafter, we developed and tested econometric models where the dependent variable is the baby conception...

  8. Population ecology of the gulf ribbed mussel across a salinity gradient: recruitment, growth and density

    Science.gov (United States)

    Honig, Aaron; Supan, John; LaPeyre, Megan K.

    2015-01-01

    Benthic intertidal bivalves play an essential role in estuarine ecosystems by contributing to habitat provision, water filtration, and promoting productivity. As such, changes that impact population distributions and persistence of local bivalve populations may have large ecosystem level consequences. Recruitment, growth, mortality, population size structure and density of the gulf coast ribbed mussel, Geukensia granosissima, were examined across a salinity gradient in southeastern Louisiana. Data were collected along 100-m transects at interior and edge marsh plots located at duplicate sites in upper (salinity ~4 psu), central (salinity ~8 psu) and lower (salinity ~15 psu) Barataria Bay, Louisiana, U.S.A. Growth, mortality and recruitment were measured in established plots from April through November 2012. Mussel densities were greatest within the middle bay (salinity ~8) regardless of flooding regime, but strongly associated with highest stem densities of Juncus roemerianus vegetation. Mussel recruitment, growth, size and survival were significantly higher at mid and high salinity marsh edge sites as compared to all interior marsh and low salinity sites. The observed patterns of density, growth and mortality in Barataria Bay may reflect detrital food resource availability, host vegetation community distribution along the salinity gradient, salinity tolerance of the mussel, and reduced predation at higher salinity edge sites.

  9. Density regulation in Northeast Atlantic fish populations: Density dependence is stronger in recruitment than in somatic growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmermann, Fabian; Ricard, Daniel; Heino, Mikko

    2018-01-30

    Population regulation is a central concept in ecology, yet in many cases its presence and the underlying mechanisms are difficult to demonstrate. The current paradigm maintains that marine fish populations are predominantly regulated by density-dependent recruitment. While it is known that density-dependent somatic growth can be present too, its general importance remains unknown and most practical applications neglect it. This study aimed to close this gap by for the first time quantifying and comparing density dependence in growth and recruitment over a large set of fish populations. We fitted density-dependent models to time-series data on population size, recruitment and age-specific weight from commercially exploited fish populations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Data were standardized to enable a direct comparison within and among populations, and estimated parameters were used to quantify the impact of density regulation on population biomass. Statistically significant density dependence in recruitment was detected in a large proportion of populations (70%), whereas for density dependence in somatic growth the prevalence of density dependence depended heavily on the method (26% and 69%). Despite age-dependent variability, the density dependence in recruitment was consistently stronger among age groups and between alternative approaches that use weight-at-age or weight increments to assess growth. Estimates of density-dependent reduction in biomass underlined these results: 97% of populations with statistically significant parameters for growth and recruitment showed a larger impact of density-dependent recruitment on population biomass. The results reaffirm the importance of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes, yet they also show that density dependence in somatic growth is not uncommon. Furthermore, the results are important from an applied perspective because density dependence in somatic growth affects productivity and

  10. The growth of XXX females: population-based studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ratcliffe, S G; Pan, H; McKie, M

    1994-01-01

    Longitudinal measurements of height, sitting height and leg length are compared between 11 XXX girls identified by cytogenetic screening, and 16 chromosomally normal controls from the same population using a nonparametric method. While height velocity did not differ between the two groups either during the pubertal or the mid-childhood spurts, leg length velocity was significantly increased during the mid-childhood spurt, between 4 and 9 years of age. A further contribution to the increased leg length came from the slower decline in leg length velocity at the end of the pubertal spurt. The possible mechanisms involved in these changes are discussed.

  11. Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

    2012-01-01

    1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

  12. Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    risk of delivering macrosomic and growth- restricted babies, with their related risks. We therefore need to predict fetal growth accurately. Routine care of an uncomplicated DM pregnancy entails fetal growth assessment per trimester. However, it is recommended that growth-restricted and LGA fetuses are followed up every ...

  13. Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

    KAUST Repository

    Baumgarten, Sebastian

    2013-12-04

    Magellania venosa, the largest recent brachiopod, occurs in clusters and banks in population densities of up to 416 ind m-2 in Comau Fjord, Northern Chilean fjord region. Below 15 m, it co-occurs with the mytilid Aulacomya atra and it dominates the benthic community below 20 m. To determine the question of why M. venosa is a successful competitor, the in situ growth rate of the brachiopod was studied and its overall growth performance compared with that of other brachiopods and mussels. The growth in length was measured between February 2011 and March 2012 after mechanical tagging and calcein staining. Settlement and juvenile growth were determined from recruitment tiles installed in 2009 and from subsequent photocensus. Growth of M. venosa is best described by the general von Bertalanffy growth function, with a maximum shell length (L∞) of 71.53 mm and a Brody growth constant (K) of 0.336 year-1. The overall growth performance (OGP index = 5.1) is the highest recorded for a rynchonelliform brachiopod and in the range of that for Mytilus chilensis (4.8-5.27), but lower than that of A. atra (5.74). The maximal individual production (PInd) is 0.29 g AFDM ind-1 year-1 at 42 mm shell length and annual production ranges from 1.28 to 89.25 g AFDM year-1 m-2 (1-57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass of the population (P/B--ratio) is low (0.535) and M. venosa may play only a minor role in the food chain. Settling dynamics indicates that M. venosa is a pioneer species with low juvenile mortality. The coexistence of the brachiopod and bivalve suggests that brachiopod survival is affected by neither the presence of potential brachiopod predators nor that of space competitors (i.e. mytilids).

  14. Trans-theta logistics: a new family of population growth sigmoid functions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozusko, F; Bourdeau, M

    2011-12-01

    Sigmoid functions have been applied in many areas to model self limited population growth. The most popular functions; General Logistic (GL), General von Bertalanffy (GV), and Gompertz (G), comprise a family of functions called Theta Logistic ([Formula: see text] L). Previously, we introduced a simple model of tumor cell population dynamics which provided a unifying foundation for these functions. In the model the total population (N) is divided into reproducing (P) and non-reproducing/quiescent (Q) sub-populations. The modes of the rate of change of ratio P/N was shown to produce GL, GV or G growth. We now generalize the population dynamics model and extend the possible modes of the P/N rate of change. We produce a new family of sigmoid growth functions, Trans-General Logistic (TGL), Trans-General von Bertalanffy (TGV) and Trans-Gompertz (TG)), which as a group we have named Trans-Theta Logistic (T [Formula: see text] L) since they exist when the [Formula: see text] L are translated from a two parameter into a three parameter phase space. Additionally, the model produces a new trigonometric based sigmoid (TS). The [Formula: see text] L sigmoids have an inflection point size fixed by a single parameter and an inflection age fixed by both of the defining parameters. T [Formula: see text] L and TS sigmoids have an inflection point size defined by two parameters in bounding relationships and inflection point age defined by three parameters (two bounded). While the Theta Logistic sigmoids provided flexibility in defining the inflection point size, the Trans-Theta Logistic sigmoids provide flexibility in defining the inflection point size and age. By matching the slopes at the inflection points we compare the range of values of inflection point age for T [Formula: see text] L versus [Formula: see text] L for model growth curves.

  15. Dynamics of Population and Economic Growth: A Computer-Based Instruction Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roh, Chaisung; Handler, Paul

    A computer-assisted instructional (CAI) program at the University of Illinois is used to teach the dynamics of population growth. Socio-economic models are also developed to show the consequences of population growth upon variables such as income, productivity, and the demand for food. A one-sex population projection model allows students to…

  16. Comparative growth and grain yield responses of soybean ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    STORAGESEVER

    2009-03-20

    Mar 20, 2009 ... replications. The main plots were twelve soybean genotypes, while two P fertilizer levels constituted the sub-plots. Plant height, leaf area and number of branches per plant, crop growth rate, relative growth rate, net assimilation rate and leaf area ratio were measured at full flowering, while number of pods ...

  17. Growth Strategy of Rhizomatous and Non-Rhizomatous Tall Fescue Populations in Response to Defoliation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Racheal H. Bryant

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this study was to determine the morphology of rhizome production, in two contrasting rhizomatous (R and non-rhizomatous (NR tall fescue (Schedonorus arundinaceus (Schreb. Dumort populations, and to assess whether rhizome production is associated with changed biomass allocation or plant growth pattern. Growth of R and NR populations was compared, under hard defoliation (H, 50 mm stubble, lax defoliation (L, 100 mm stubble, or without defoliation (U, uncut. Populations were cloned and grown in a glasshouse and defoliated every three weeks, with destructive harvests performed at 6, 12 and 18 weeks. R plants allocated more biomass to root and less to pseudostem than NR plants. Plant tiller numbers were greatly reduced by defoliation, and R and NR populations differed in leaf formation strategy. R plants had narrower leaves than NR, but their leaves were longer, because of greater leaf elongation duration. R plants were more plastic than NR plants in response to defoliation. Ultimately, biomass allocation to rhizomes did not differ between populations but R plants exhibited a subtle shift in distribution of internode length with a few longer internode segments typically located on secondary and tertiary tillers.

  18. POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

  19. Extreme natural hazards: population growth, globalization and environmental change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huppert, Herbert E; Sparks, R Stephen J

    2006-08-15

    Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10,000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur.

  20. Population and economic growth theme: Longitudinal data for a sample of Balkan countries

    OpenAIRE

    Josheski, Dushko; Nikola, Dimitrov; Koteski, Cane

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use pooled cross-sectional (longitudinal data) in a sample of 10 Balkan countries. The period we cover is from 1950-2009 data are for population and economic growth. In the theoretical part we present optimal intergenerational model of population growth .The optimal population growth depends on capital in the future period and future consumption. Consumption should be greater than zero, and less than total capital of the cur-rent generation. In the econometric part OLS regres...

  1. Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

    2014-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

  2. Comparative Studies of Population Synthesis Models in the ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Evolutionary models form a vital part of stellar population research in understanding their evolution, but despite their long history of development, they are often misrepresented and the properties of stellar population observed through broadband and spectroscopic measurements are also misinterpreted. With growing ...

  3. Comparative analysis of inter population genetic diversity in Puntius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The genetic variation in different population of the freshwater cyprinid Puntius filamentosus was studied using restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis. Samples were collected from five different locations of southern Western Ghats, India. The morphometric characters of population from Alancholai showed ...

  4. The growth of urban population in the Philippines: 1975-1980.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-01-01

    The growth of the urban population of the Philippines between 1975 and 1980 is described using data from the 1980 census. The article also updates the number and population of urban areas classified on the basis of 1970 urban definitions.

  5. Comparable liraglutide pharmacokinetics in pediatric and adult populations with type 2 diabetes: a population pharmacokinetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petri, Kristin C Carlsson; Jacobsen, Lisbeth V; Klein, David J

    2015-06-01

    The safety, tolerability, and pharmacokinetics of the once-daily human glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analog liraglutide have been evaluated in pediatric patients aged greater than 10 years with type 2 diabetes (T2D). In this study, a population pharmacokinetic analysis was compared to the pediatric pharmacokinetic data with those from two clinical pharmacology trials in adults with T2D. A one-compartment pharmacokinetic model previously found to adequately describe the pharmacokinetics of liraglutide in adults with T2D was applied to the evaluation of 13 pediatric subjects (10-17 years of age) with T2D. Steady-state estimates for apparent clearance (CL/F) for individual subjects and corresponding dose were used to derive the area under the plasma-concentration time curve from 0-24 h (AUC24) and investigate dose proportionality in the pediatric trial. A covariate analysis evaluated the effects of body weight, gender, and age category (pediatric/adult) on liraglutide exposure. Dose proportionality in the dose range of 0.3-1.8 mg was indicated by the model-derived AUC24 slope: 1.05 (95% CI 0.96-1.15). Consistent with findings from adult trials, body weight and gender were relevant covariates for liraglutide exposure in the pediatric population. The CL/F estimates, and thus exposure, for the pediatric subjects with T2D were similar to those in the adult trials. Based on this population pharmacokinetic analysis, the liraglutide dose regimen that was found to be clinically effective in adults is predicted to achieve the same range of exposure in the pediatric population (10-17 years of age) with a pre-trial body weight range of 57-214 kg.

  6. Population growth of Varroa destructor (Acari: Varroidae) in honey bee colonies is affected by the number of foragers with mites.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeGrandi-Hoffman, Gloria; Ahumada, Fabiana; Zazueta, Victor; Chambers, Mona; Hidalgo, Geoffrey; deJong, Emily Watkins

    2016-05-01

    Varroa mites are a serious pest of honey bees and the leading cause of colony losses. Varroa have relatively low reproductive rates, so populations should not increase rapidly, but often they do. Other factors might contribute to the growth of varroa populations including mite migration into colonies on foragers from other hives. We measured the proportion of foragers carrying mites on their bodies while entering and leaving hives, and determined its relationship to the growth of varroa populations in those hives at two apiary sites. We also compared the estimates of mite population growth with predictions from a varroa population dynamics model that generates estimates of mite population growth based on mite reproduction. Samples of capped brood and adult bees indicated that the proportion of brood cells infested with mites and adult bees with phoretic mites was low through the summer but increased sharply in the fall especially at site 1. The frequency of capturing foragers with mites on their bodies while entering or leaving hives also increased in the fall. The growth of varroa populations at both sites was not significantly related to our colony estimates of successful mite reproduction, but instead to the total number of foragers with mites (entering and leaving the colony). There were more foragers with mites at site 1 than site 2, and mite populations at site 1 were larger especially in the fall. The model accurately estimated phoretic mite populations and infested brood cells until November when predictions were much lower than those measured in colonies. The rapid growth of mite populations particularly in the fall being a product of mite migration rather than mite reproduction only is discussed.

  7. Linkage disequilibrium compared between five populations of domestic sheep.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meadows, Jennifer R S; Chan, Eva K F; Kijas, James W

    2008-09-30

    The success of genome-wide scans depends on the strength and magnitude of linkage disequilibrium (LD) present within the populations under investigation. High density SNP arrays are currently in development for the sheep genome, however little is known about the behaviour of LD in this livestock species. This study examined the behaviour of LD within five sheep populations using two LD metrics, D' and x2'. Four economically important Australian sheep flocks, three pure breeds (White Faced Suffolk, Poll Dorset, Merino) and a crossbred population (Merino x Border Leicester), along with an inbred Australian Merino museum flock were analysed. Short range LD (0 - 5 cM) was observed in all five populations, however the persistence with increasing distance and magnitude of LD varied considerably between populations. Average LD (x2') for markers spaced up to 20 cM exceeded the non-syntenic average within the White Faced Suffolk, Poll Dorset and Macarthur Merino. LD decayed faster within the Merino and Merino x Border Leicester, with LD below or consistent with observed background levels. Using marker-marker LD as a guide to the behaviour of marker-QTL LD, estimates of minimum marker spacing were made. For a 95% probability of detecting QTL, a microsatellite marker would be required every 0.1 - 2.5 centimorgans, depending on the population used. Sheep populations were selected which were inbred (Macarthur Merino), highly heterogeneous (Merino) or intermediate between these two extremes. This facilitated analysis and comparison of LD (x2') between populations. The strength and magnitude of LD was found to differ markedly between breeds and aligned closely with both observed levels of genetic diversity and expectations based on breed history. This confirmed that breed specific information is likely to be important for genome wide selection and during the design of successful genome scans where tens of thousands of markers will be required.

  8. Comparative biodiversity and effect of different media on growth and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Haematococcus pluvialis is a unicellular green volvocale alga living in temporary shallow freshwater ponds. It has many applications for humans, poultry and fishes due to its ability to produce astaxanthin. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the biodiversity and growth of nine strains of H. pluvialis originating ...

  9. Comparative study ohn the somatic chromosome number, growth ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Two Lycopersicon species consisting of one local and two exotic varieties of L. esculentum Mill and one wild variety of L. pimpinellifolium Jusl, were evaluated for chromosome number, growth, flowering and fruiting pattern, yield and susceptibility to tomato disease complex in the rainy seasons (May - September) of 1998 ...

  10. Comparative study on the growth performance of the hybrid catfish ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Growth performance of the hybrid catfish Heteroclarias reared in concrete and earthen pond systems were investigated in a 92-day experiment. Experiment was conducted using four rectangular ponds (2 concrete and 2 earthen) each measuring 14 × 6 × 1.5 metres in duplicates. The ponds were uniformly limed, fertilized ...

  11. Comparing Graphene Growth on Cu(111) versus Oxidized Cu(111)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gottardi, Stefano; Müller, Kathrin; Bignardi, Luca; Moreno Lopez, Juan Carlos; Pham, Tuan Anh; Ivashenko, Oleksii; Yablonskikh, Mikhail; Barinov, Alexei; Björk, Jonas; Rudolf, Petra; Stöhr, Meike

    2015-01-01

    The epitaxial growth of graphene on catalytically active metallic surfaces via chemical vapor deposition (CVD) is known to be one of the most reliable routes toward high-quality large-area graphene. This CVD-grown graphene is generally coupled to its metallic support resulting in a modification of

  12. Comparative growth performance of different Casuarina species and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Variation in growth charactristics, coppicing ability and understory vegetation development was assessed in four Casuarina species (C. equisetifolia, C. junghuhniana, C. cunnighamiana and C. oligodon) grown in Lushoto in the West Usambara Mountains (WUM), Tanzania. The performance of the four species as well as of ...

  13. A comparative analysis of prenatal care and fetal growth in eight South American countries.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristina Woodhouse

    Full Text Available There has been little work that comprehensively compared the relationship between prenatal care and infant health across multiple countries using similar data sources and analytical models. Such comparative analyses are useful for understanding the background of differences in infant health between populations. We evaluated the association between prenatal care visits and fetal growth measured by birth weight (BW in grams or low birth weight (<2500 grams; LBW adjusted for gestational age in eight South American countries using similarly collected data across countries and the same analytical models. OLS and logistic regressions were estimated adjusting for a large set of relevant infant, maternal, and household characteristics and birth year and hospital fixed effects. Birth data were acquired from 140 hospitals that are part of the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations (ECLAMC network. The analytical sample included 56,014 live-born infants (∼69% of total sample with complete data born without congenital anomalies in the years 1996-2011 in Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Venezuela, Ecuador, Colombia, Bolivia, and Uruguay. Prenatal care visits were significantly (at p<.05 and positively associated with BW and negatively associated with LBW for all countries. The OLS coefficients ranged from 9 grams per visit in Bolivia to 36 grams in Uruguay. The association with LBW was strongest for Chile (OR = 0.87 per visit and lowest for Argentina and Venezuela (OR = 0.95. The association decreased in the recent decade compared to earlier years. Our findings suggest that estimates of association between prenatal care and fetal growth are population-specific and may not be generalizable to other populations. Furthermore, as one of the indicators for a country's healthcare system for maternal and child health, prenatal care is a highly variable indicator between countries in South America.

  14. The effect of population aging on health expenditure growth : A critical review

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Meijer, C.; Wouterse, B.; Polder, J.J.; Koopmanschap, M.

    2013-01-01

    Although the consequences of population aging for growth in health expenditures have been widely investigated, research on this topic is rather fragmented. Therefore, these consequences are not fully understood. This paper reviews the consequences of population aging for health expenditure growth in

  15. Constant Savings Rates and Quasi-arithmetic Population Growth under Exhaustible Resource Constraints

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Asheim, G.; Buchholz, W.; Hartwick, J.; Mitra, T.; Withagen, C.A.A.M.

    2007-01-01

    In the Dasgupta-Heal-Solow-Stiglitz (DHSS) model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence: if an efficient path has constant (gross and net of population growth) savings rates, then population growth must be quasi-arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a

  16. Urbanisation and Growth of Slum Population in Jharkhand: A Spatial Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rahul Harshwardhan

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to examine the relation between the pace of urbanisation and growth of slum population in Jharkhand. This paper also attempts to analyse the trends and patterns of growth of slum population at the district level in Jharkhand. In terms of urbanisation process of India, slums have become an integral part of urban scenario. In India, rapid growth of slums is the result of rural-urban migration of the rural poor to the cities/towns in search of employment in the last two decades. In the absence of any affordable housing, there has been growth of slums in the urban areas of the country. In India, out of a total population of 1.21 billion, 31.30% population resides in the urban areas, but 21.68% (61.8 million of the total urban population live in the slums. Slums are considered as a major problem within the urban areas, particularly in relation to the issues of transportation, population growth, health and safety. The developing states or regions of India are more prone to this problem due to the lack of infrastructural development and heavy urban population pressure. Like other states of India, Jharkhand too is facing the problem of slums. After its separation from Bihar in 2000, the rate of urbanisation and the rate of growth of slums had gone high. The study reveals that in 2001, there were only 11 urban centers consisting of slum population but in 2011, it reached to 31. The slum population registers 23.68% growth while the urban population growth stands at 32%. This paper is primarily based on secondary data collected from different governmental agencies, particularly the Census data of population to analyse the spatial distribution of slum population in the districts of Jharkhand. This study explores the changing urbanisation scenario in Jharkhand and the growth of slums with respect to it.

  17. Why Europe? On comparative long-term growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wagener, Hans-Jürgen

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Four historical macro phenomena of development ask for an explanation: the slow increase of welfare in Western Europe from the Middle Ages up to the publication of the Wealth of Nations, rapid modern economic growth in Europe and its transoceanic ofshoots following the industrial revolution, the lagging behind of the Asiatic areas India, China, and Japan, and the succession of economic leadership from Italy via the Low Countries and the United Kingdom to the US. The paper deals with these problems on three levels. On the first level of proper economic analysis the process of material growth is approached. On a second level, the level of institutional economics, the social framework is introduced. The third level is the field of the political economy of institutional change. Classical and neo-classical economic theory and institutional political economy offer a number of plausible explanatory causes. Next to the classical division of labour and accumulation, technical progress and human capital play a decisive role. It is shown that the emergence of an impartially operating system of law and a polity which supports it make possible the unfolding of such material conditions for growth. The institutional factors, in turn, are furthered by the development of autonomous and self-responsible individuals and competition between them and between independent political systems. Finally, a general attitude favouring the search for new ideas together with a positive attitude towards progress and risk contribute to the great divergence.

  18. Comparative kinetic behavior of nitrifiers with different growth environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jih, Charng-Gwo; Huang, Ju-Sheng; Lin, Huei-Jen; Chou, Hsin-Hsien

    2008-06-01

    A batch feed study using nitrifiers that had been continuously acclimated under a low-ammonia environment showed that a sudden change of ammonia concentration resulted in sluggish physiological adaptation and biochemical reaction of nitrifiers (i.e., indicated by the parameter specific oxygen utilization rate). When the one-stage continuous-stirred tank reactor (CSTR) system was maintained at a short microbial cell residence time and a high volumetric loading rate, an accumulation of nitrite occurred. Under such circumstances, ammonia and nitrite oxidation both limit overall nitrification at different stages of the process. Batch studies with biomass respectively removed from the front and rear reactors (i.e., high-ammonia and low-ammonia growth environments) of a two-stage CSTR system showed that the estimated kinetic parameters for nitrifiers with the low-ammonia growth environment were 0.3-0.8-fold lower than those for nitrifiers with the high-ammonia growth environment, possibly leading to inaccurate model simulation results. Accordingly, biomass removed from a CSTR system that had been operated continuously to grow bacteria under a high-substrate environment should be loaded into the batch reactor if the batch reactor method is to be used to estimate kinetic parameters.

  19. When Dread Risks Are More Dreadful than Continuous Risks: Comparing Cumulative Population Losses over Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodemer, Nicolai; Ruggeri, Azzurra; Galesic, Mirta

    2013-01-01

    People show higher sensitivity to dread risks, rare events that kill many people at once, compared with continuous risks, relatively frequent events that kill many people over a longer period of time. The different reaction to dread risks is often considered a bias: If the continuous risk causes the same number of fatalities, it should not be perceived as less dreadful. We test the hypothesis that a dread risk may have a stronger negative impact on the cumulative population size over time in comparison with a continuous risk causing the same number of fatalities. This difference should be particularly strong when the risky event affects children and young adults who would have produced future offspring if they had survived longer. We conducted a series of simulations, with varying assumptions about population size, population growth, age group affected by risky event, and the underlying demographic model. Results show that dread risks affect the population more severely over time than continuous risks that cause the same number of fatalities, suggesting that fearing a dread risk more than a continuous risk is an ecologically rational strategy. PMID:23840503

  20. Comparative genetics of alcoholism in the Kenyan populations ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hepatic alcohol dehydrogenase and aldehyde dehydrogenase are major enzymes in the metabolism of exogenous ethanol. These enzymes are polymorphic and are involved in alcohol drinking and risk of alcoholism in some world populations. Three hundred and seventy one samples of hair root lyzates from five Kenyan ...

  1. Hybrid Rational Haar Wavelet and Block Pulse Functions Method for Solving Population Growth Model and Abel Integral Equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Fathizadeh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We use a computational method based on rational Haar wavelet for solving nonlinear fractional integro-differential equations. To this end, we apply the operational matrix of fractional integration for rational Haar wavelet. Also, to show the efficiency of the proposed method, we solve particularly population growth model and Abel integral equations and compare the numerical results with the exact solutions.

  2. Fetal growth trajectory and risk for eczema in a Saudi population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    AlMakoshi, Amel; Ellahi, Awaiss; Sallout, Bala; Devereux, Graham; Turner, Steve

    2015-12-01

    Recent studies in Western cohorts have identified associations between increasing fetal abdominal circumference (AC) during mid-pregnancy and increased risk for eczema and atopy. We sought to replicate these findings in a Saudi population where antenatal environmental exposures are different compared with Western countries. A Saudi birth cohort was recruited to relate maternal dietary intake and fetal growth to wheeze, eczema, and rhinitis in the first 2 yrs. Fetal size was determined from routine ultrasound scan measurements in the second and third trimesters and birthweight was noted. Parent-reported outcomes during the first 2 yrs were acquired by telephone-administered questionnaire. There were 1076 mothers recruited. AC was determined in 562 for the second, in 632 for the third, and in 281 for both second and third trimesters. A history of eczema was determined in 814 children at 2 yrs of age. There was an inverse relationship between change in abdominal circumference between the second and third trimesters for eczema (OR 0.66 per z score increase in AC [95% CI 0.49, 0.89]), and the quartile with the greatest faltering growth were at increased risk compared with other groups (p ≤ 0.045). Change in fetal size between the third trimester and birth was not associated with altered eczema risk. There were no associations between fetal growth and wheeze at the age of 2 yrs. Our findings contrast observations made in Western populations but nonetheless suggest that factors associated with changing fetal growth trajectory in the second half of pregnancy are also relevant to atopy development on the global setting. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Effects of Sample Size on Estimates of Population Growth Rates Calculated with Matrix Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiske, Ian J.; Bruna, Emilio M.; Bolker, Benjamin M.

    2008-01-01

    Background Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ. Methodology/Principal Findings Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. Conclusions/Significance We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities. PMID:18769483

  4. Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ian J Fiske

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

  5. THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE EVOLUTION REGARDING THE POPULATION GROWTH IN THE LAND OF SEVERIN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ioana-Cristiana VÎLCEA

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available The causes which influenced the population growth in the Land of Severin are consistent with demographic processes, which happened at the national level, but also with the local influences driven by some geographical features, such as the geographical position of settlements compared to possible polarization centers which have a significant socio-economic attraction and which at a given moment had an impact over the potential demographic causing certain changes. To these causes we can also add other issues such as the insufficient material resources, poor hygiene, the lack of medical infrastructure or poor equipment of hospitals. Of particular importance for the evolution of population growth are also other social causes such as the presence of diseases (syphilis, plague and cholera which decimated the population in the region during the period 1830-1913 or Balkan Endemic Nephropathy, a disease characteristic to this region, abortions practiced in poor conditions of hygiene, especially during the communist period when these kind of actions were forbidden.

  6. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kevin Ford; Joshua H. Ness; Judith L. Bronstein; William F. Morris

    2015-01-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner’s demography depends on how they affect the partner’s multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and...

  7. The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

    2015-10-01

    The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

  8. Population Growth and Policies in Mega-Cities. Sao Paulo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Information and Policy Analysis.

    This document is one in a series of studies that focus on the population policies and plans of a number of mega-cities in developing countries. The object of the series is to examine the formulation, implementation, and evaluation of the population policies of mega-cities from a broad perspective, emphasizing the reciprocal links between…

  9. Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

    2016-01-01

    Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λS) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λS compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λS was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

  10. Comparative growth and development of spiders reared on live and dead prey.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Peng

    Full Text Available Scavenging (feeding on dead prey has been demonstrated across a number of spider families, yet the implications of feeding on dead prey for the growth and development of individuals and population is unknown. In this study we compare the growth, development, and predatory activity of two species of spiders that were fed on live and dead prey. Pardosa astrigera (Lycosidae and Hylyphantes graminicola (Lyniphiidae were fed live or dead fruit flies, Drosophila melanogaster. The survival of P. astrigera and H. graminicola was not affected by prey type. The duration of late instars of P. astrigera fed dead prey were longer and mature spiders had less protein content than those fed live prey, whereas there were no differences in the rate of H. graminicola development, but the mass of mature spiders fed dead prey was greater than those fed live prey. Predation rates by P. astrigera did not differ between the two prey types, but H. graminicola had a higher rate of predation on dead than alive prey, presumably because the dead flies were easier to catch and handle. Overall, the growth, development and reproduction of H. graminicola reared with dead flies was better than those reared on live flies, yet for the larger P. astrigera, dead prey may suit smaller instars but mature spiders may be best maintained with live prey. We have clearly demonstrated that dead prey may be suitable for rearing spiders, although the success of the spiders fed such prey appears size- and species specific.

  11. Regulatory design governing progression of population growth phases in bacteria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agustino Martínez-Antonio

    Full Text Available It has long been noted that batch cultures inoculated with resting bacteria exhibit a progression of growth phases traditionally labeled lag, exponential, pre-stationary and stationary. However, a detailed molecular description of the mechanisms controlling the transitions between these phases is lacking. A core circuit, formed by a subset of regulatory interactions involving five global transcription factors (FIS, HNS, IHF, RpoS and GadX, has been identified by correlating information from the well- established transcriptional regulatory network of Escherichia coli and genome-wide expression data from cultures in these different growth phases. We propose a functional role for this circuit in controlling progression through these phases. Two alternative hypotheses for controlling the transition between the growth phases are first, a continuous graded adjustment to changing environmental conditions, and second, a discontinuous hysteretic switch at critical thresholds between growth phases. We formulate a simple mathematical model of the core circuit, consisting of differential equations based on the power-law formalism, and show by mathematical and computer-assisted analysis that there are critical conditions among the parameters of the model that can lead to hysteretic switch behavior, which--if validated experimentally--would suggest that the transitions between different growth phases might be analogous to cellular differentiation. Based on these provocative results, we propose experiments to test the alternative hypotheses.

  12. Impacts of Hispanic Population Growth on Rural Wages. Agricultural Economic Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newman, Constance

    Although earnings generally increased in rural areas in the 1990s, Hispanic population growth led to lower wages for at least one segment of the rural population--workers with a high school degree (skilled workers), particularly men in this skill group. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Current Population Survey, this report…

  13. Effects of wind energy production on growth, demography, and survivorship of a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population in Southern California with comparisons to natural populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lovich, J.E.; Ennen, J.R.; Madrak, S.; Meyer, K.; Loughran, C.; Bjurlin, C.; Arundel, T.; Turner, W.; Jones, C.; Groenendaal, G.M.

    2011-01-01

    We studied a Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) population at a large wind energy generation facility near Palm Springs, California over six field seasons from 1997 to 2010. We compared growth and demographic parameters to populations living in less disturbed areas; as well as populations of the closely-related and newly-described G. morafkai elsewhere in the Sonoran Desert of Arizona. We marked 69 individuals of all size classes and estimated a population size of 96 tortoises, or about 15.4/km2. Growth rates for males were lower than reported elsewhere, although maximum body size was larger. The smallest female with shelled eggs was 221 mm and males mature at over 200 mm. Mean male size was greater than that of females. The adult sex ratio was not significantly different from unity. Size frequency histograms were similar over time and when compared to most, but not all, G. morafkai populations in the Sonoran Desert. For a cohort of adult females, we estimated mortality at 8.4% annually due, in part, to site operations. This value was low in comparison to many other populations during the same time period. Other than possible differences in growth rate of males and the high survivorship of females, there appear to be few differences between this population and those in more natural areas. The high productivity of food plants at the site and its limited public access may contribute to the overall stability of the population. However, the effects of utility-scale renewable energy development on tortoises in other, less productive, areas are unknown. Additional research (especially controlled and replicated before and after studies) is urgently needed to address this deficiency because of forecasted expansion of utility-scale renewable energy development in the future.

  14. Fetal growth in a population group in Lima

    OpenAIRE

    Pacora, Percy; Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Lima, Perú

    2014-01-01

    Fetal growth is both an index of fetal well-being and predictor of early development of chronic diseases during extrauterine life. Therefore, it is neccesary to establish fetal growth standard. Based on 18,615 single deliveries registered at San Bartolome's Hospital in Lima, Peru, between June 1990 and March 1995, only 5,399 (29%) healthy Peruvian pregnant women less than 35 years old with no obstetrical complications had a healthy baby. We did not consider healthy a baby born before 34 weeks...

  15. Population size, survival, growth, and movements of Rana sierrae

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A. W.; Halstead, Brian J.; Link, William

    2013-01-01

    Based on 2431 captures of 757 individual frogs over a 9-yr period, we found that the population of R. sierrae in one meadow–stream complex in Yosemite National Park ranged from an estimated 45 to 115 adult frogs. Rana sierrae at our relatively low elevation site (2200 m) grew at a fast rate (K = 0.73–0.78), had high overwintering survival rates (44.6–95%), lived a long time (up to 16 yr), and tended to be fairly sedentary during the summer (100% minimum convex polygon annual home ranges of 139 m2) but had low year-to-year site fidelity. Even though the amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) has been present in the population for at least 13 yr, there was no clear downward trend as might be expected from reports of R. sierrae population declines associated with Bd or from reports of widespread population decline of R. sierrae throughout its range.

  16. Modeling effects of cadmium on population growth of Palaemonetes pugio: results of a full life cycle exposure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manyin, Teresa; Rowe, Christopher L

    2008-06-23

    In an 8-month laboratory experiment, Palaemonetes pugio (grass shrimp) were exposed to aqueous cadmium (free cadmium ion concentrations of 1.51 or 2.51 microg Cd(2+)/L) for an entire life cycle, from larva to reproductive adult and through to production of second-generation larva. Individual-level effects on survival, life stage duration, and reproduction were measured, and population growth was projected using two models: a stage-based matrix model and a z-transformed life cycle graph analysis. Adult survival was significantly reduced at 2.51 microg Cd(2+)/L, but cadmium exposure had no effects on survival or stage duration of embryos, larvae, or juveniles. Survival of second-generation larvae was unaffected by maternal exposure. Brood size was reduced by 27% at 1.51 microg Cd(2+)/L and by 36% at 2.51 microg Cd(2+)/L. The percent of females in the population that was gravid was approximately 50% lower at 2.51 microg Cd(2+)/L, compared to controls. Both population models projected a dose-dependent decrease in population growth rate (lambda), up to a 12% reduction at 2.51 microg Cd(2+)/L, which can be attributed mainly to contributions from reproductive effects. Elasticity analysis revealed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in survival of juveniles and adults. However, lethal effects of cadmium made only a small contribution to the effect on population growth rate. Even though both models project positive growth (lambda>1) of grass shrimp populations exposed to low concentrations of cadmium, the ability of populations to withstand predation pressure would be compromised.

  17. Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shyu, Esther; Caswell, Hal

    2014-05-01

    1. Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way to calculate sensitivities of the stochastic growth rate. 2. Using matrix calculus, we derive the second derivatives of three population growth rate measures: the discrete-time growth rate λ, the continuous-time growth rate r = log λ and the net reproductive rate R 0 , which measures per-generation growth. 3. We present a suite of formulae for the second derivatives of each growth rate and show how to compute these derivatives with respect to projection matrix entries and to lower-level parameters affecting those matrix entries. 4. We also illustrate several ecological and evolutionary applications for these second derivative calculations with a case study for the tropical herb Calathea ovandensis .

  18. Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years and Its Link to the Economic Growth

    OpenAIRE

    Nielsen, Ron W

    2016-01-01

    Abstract. Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 yearsare analysed. It is shown that,if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined episodes of hyperbolic growth: 10,000-500 BC, AD 500-1200 and AD 1400-1950, representing a total of about 89% of the past 12,000 years. It also reveals three demographic transitions: 500 BC-AD 500, AD 1200-1400 and AD 1950-present, representing the re...

  19. [Comparative analysis of the migration increase dynamics of the elderly population living in the Samara region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gridasov, G N; Zakharova, N O; Balueva, E S

    2011-01-01

    On the large amount of factual material we studied the dynamics of net migration of elderly in urban and rural areas of Samara region for the period from 2002 to 2009. We made a comparative analysis of changes in the structure and settlement characteristics of different groups of migrants (the elderly, children and able-bodied). We came to the conclusion, that the net migration of elderly in Samara region has considerably grown, mainly due to the influx of female population. The vector of net migration of people over working age moved into the countryside and this growth is ensured by older women to a large extent. The research results of one of the main demographic processes, migration, should be considered in the formation of local and regional policies for the elderly.

  20. Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Major insights into the relationship between life-history features and fitness have come from Lotka's proof that population growth rate is determined by the level (expected amount) of reproduction and the average timing of reproduction of an individual. But this classical result is limited...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...... features of the life history determine population growth rate r and reveal a complex interplay of trait dynamics, timing, and level of reproduction. Our results contribute to a new framework of population and evolutionary dynamics in stage-and-age-structured populations....

  1. Inter-sectoral Interdependence and Growth in Vietnam: A Comparative Analysis with Indonesia and Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    秋田, 隆裕; Hau, Chu Thi Trung

    2006-01-01

    This study examines the sources of output growth in Vietnam during 1996-2000 using the national input-output (I-O) tables. It employs an extended growth-factor decomposition method, which is an extension of the standard growth-factor decomposition method, in which all industries are classified into the primary, secondary and tertiary sectors. It also conducts a comparative analysis of Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia. The major source of Vietnam's output growth was the expansion of exports. Th...

  2. Noise-driven growth rate gain in clonal cellular populations

    OpenAIRE

    Hashimoto, Mikihiro; Nozoe, Takashi; Nakaoka, Hidenori; Okura, Reiko; Akiyoshi, Sayo; Kaneko, Kunihiko; Kussell, Edo; Wakamoto, Yuichi

    2016-01-01

    Differences between individuals exist even in the absence of genetic differences, e.g., in identical twins. Over the last decade, experiments have shown that even genetically identical microbes exhibit large cell-to-cell differences. In particular, the timing of cell division events is highly variable between single bacterial cells. The effect of this variability on long-term growth and survival of bacteria, however, remains elusive. Here, we present a striking finding showing that a bacteria...

  3. Population structure and growth of polydorid polychaetes that infest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Polydorid polychaetes can infest cultured abalone thereby reducing productivity. In order to effectively control these pests, their reproductive biology must be understood. The population dynamics and reproduction of polydorids infesting abalone Haliotis midae from two farms in South Africa is described using a ...

  4. Population growth, urban expansion, and private forestry in western Oregon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeffrey D. Kline; David L. Azuma; Ralph J. Alig

    2004-01-01

    Private forestlands in the United States face increasing pressures from growing populations, resulting in greater numbers of people living in closer proximity to forests. What often is called the "wildland/urban interface" is characterized by expansion of residential and other developed land uses onto forested landscapes in a manner that threatens forestlands...

  5. Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

    2015-01-01

    Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

  6. Elephant population growth in Kruger National Park, South Africa, under a landscape management approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sam M. Ferreira

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available South African National Parks (SANParks manage landscapes rather than numbers of elephants (Loxodonta africana to mitigate the effects that elephants may have on biodiversity, tourism and stakeholder conservation values associated with protected areas. This management philosophy imposes spatial variability of critical resources on elephants. Restoration of such ecological processes through less intensive management predicts a reduction in population growth rates from the eras of intensive management. We collated aerial survey data since 1995 and conducted an aerial total count using a helicopter observation platform during 2015. A minimum of 17 086 elephants were resident in the Kruger National Park (KNP in 2015, growing at 4.2% per annum over the last generation of elephants (i.e. 12 years, compared to 6.5% annual population growth noted during the intensive management era ending in 1994. This may come from responses of elephants to density and environmental factors manifested through reduced birth rates and increased mortality rates. Authorities should continue to evaluate the demographic responses of elephants to landscape scale interventions directed at restoring the limitation of spatial variance in resource distribution on elephant spatiotemporal dynamics and the consequences that may have for other conservation values.Conservation implications: Conservation managers should continue with surveying elephants in a way that allows the extraction of key variables. Such variables should focus on measures that reflect on how theory predicts elephants should respond to management interventions.

  7. Effects of probiotic supplement ( and on feed efficiency, growth performance, and microbial population of weaning rabbits

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thanh Lam Phuoc

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Objective This study aimed to investigate the effects of single or/and double strains of probiotic supplement on feed efficiency, growth performance, and microbial population in distal gastrointestinal tract (GIT of weaning rabbits. Methods Sixty-four weaning (28 days old New Zealand White rabbits were randomly distributed into four groups with treatments including: basal diet without probiotic supplement (control or supplemented as follows: 1×106 cfu/g B. subtilis (BS group, 1×107 cfu/g L. acidophilus (LA group, or 0.5×106 cfu/g B. subtilis plus 0.5×107 cfu/g L. acidophilus (BL group. During the research, the male and female rabbits were fed separately. Body weight of the rabbits was recorded at 28, 42, and 70 d of age. Results There was an increase (p<0.05 in body weight gain for the LA group at 42 d. Rabbits fed BL responsed with a greater growth (p<0.05 and better feed conversion ratio (p<0.05 than those fed with no probiotic. Digestibility coefficients of dry matter, organic matter, crude protein, neutral detergent fiber, and gross energy were higher (p<0.05 in LA and BL groups than those in the control group. Male rabbits had higher (p<0.05 Bacilli spp. and Coliformis spp. in the ileum than female rabbits. Rabbits supplemented with BS had greater (p<0.05 numbers of bacilli in all intestinal segments than those receiving no probiotic, whereas intestinal Lactobacilli populations were greater (p<0.001 in the LA and BL diets compared to control. Average intestinal coliform populations were lowest (p<0.05 in the rabbits supplemented with LA as compared to those fed the control and BS. Conclusion Supplementation of L. acidophilus alone or in combination with B. subtilis at a half of dose could enhance number of gut beneficial bacteria populations, nutrient digestibility, cecal fermentation, feed efficiency, and growth performance, but rabbits receiving only B. subtilis alone were not different from the controls without probiotic.

  8. A tale of three regions : influence of highway investments on population and traffic growth in Virginia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    To what extent may highway investments shape population growth and land development? To answer this question, three decades of data were examined in the Virginia locations of Fairfax County, Spotsylvania County, and Newport News. In each location, a ...

  9. Noise-Induced Transitions in a Population Growth Model Based on Size-Dependent Carrying Capacity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Neeme Lumi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model with size-dependent carrying capacity is considered. The effect of a fluctuating environment on population growth is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. At intermediate values of population size the deterministic counterpart of the model behaves similarly to the Von Foerster model for human population, but at small and very large values of population size substantial differences occur. In the stochastic case, an exact analytical solution for the stationary probability distribution is found. It is established that variation of noise correlation time can cause noise-induced transitions between three different states of the system characterized by qualitatively different behaviors of the probability distributions of the population size. Also, it is shown that, in some regions of the system parameters, variation of the amplitude of environmental fluctuations can induce single unidirectional abrupt transitions of the mean population size.

  10. Shanghai: a study on the spatial growth of population and economy in a Chinese metropolitan area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, J

    1995-01-01

    In this study of the growth in population and industry in Shanghai, China, between the 1982 and 1990 censuses, data on administrative divisions was normalized through digitization and spatial analysis. Analysis focused on spatial units, intensity of growth, time period, distance, rate of growth, and direction of spatial growth. The trisection method divided the city into city proper, outskirts, and suburbs. The distance function method considered the distance from center city as a function: exponential, power, trigonometric, logarithmic, and polynomial. Population growth and employment in all sectors increased in the outskirts and suburbs and decreased in the city proper except tertiary sectors. Primary sector employment decreased in all three sections. Employment in the secondary increased faster in the outskirts and suburbs than the total rate of growth of population and employment. In the city secondary sector employment rates decreased faster than total population and employment rates. The tertiary sector had the highest rate of growth in all sections, and employment grew faster than secondary sector rates. Tertiary growth was highest in real estate, finance, and insurance. Industrial growth in the secondary sector was 160.2% in the suburbs, 156.6% in the outskirts, and 80.9% in the city. In the distance function analysis, industry expanded further out than the entire secondary sector. Commerce grew the fastest in areas 15.4 km from center city. Economic growth was faster after economic reforms in 1978. Growth was led by industry and followed by the secondary sector, the tertiary sector, and population. Industrial expansion resulted from inner pressure, political factors controlling size, the social and economic system, and the housing construction and distribution system. Initially sociopsychological factors affected urban concentration.

  11. Survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of an important mesopredator: the northern raccoon.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elizabeth M Troyer

    Full Text Available Populations of mesopredators (mid-sized mammalian carnivores are expanding in size and range amid declining apex predator populations and ever-growing human presence, leading to significant ecological impacts. Despite their obvious importance, population dynamics have scarcely been studied for most mesopredator species. Information on basic population parameters and processes under a range of conditions is necessary for managing these species. Here we investigate survival, recruitment, and population growth rate of a widely distributed and abundant mesopredator, the northern raccoon (Procyon lotor, using Pradel's temporal symmetry models and >6 years of monthly capture-mark-recapture data collected in a protected area. Monthly apparent survival probability was higher for females (0.949, 95% CI = 0.936-0.960 than for males (0.908, 95% CI = 0.893-0.920, while monthly recruitment rate was higher for males (0.091, 95% CI = 0.078-0.106 than for females (0.054, 95% CI = 0.042-0.067. Finally, monthly realized population growth rate was 1.000 (95% CI = 0.996-1.004, indicating that our study population has reached a stable equilibrium in this relatively undisturbed habitat. There was little evidence for substantial temporal variation in population growth rate or its components. Our study is one of the first to quantify survival, recruitment, and realized population growth rate of raccoons using long-term data and rigorous statistical models.

  12. Growth and population dynamics of Thalassodendron ciliatum in a Kenyan back-reef lagoon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duarte, C.M.; Hemminga, M.A.; Marbà, N.

    1996-01-01

    The size, rhizome growth, and demography of a Thalassodendron ciliatum (Forssk.) den Hartog population in a back-reef lagoon (Chale lagoon, Kenya), was examined using techniques based on age determinations. The results obtained reveal that vertical growth of the T. ciliatum shoots is very fast,

  13. Social security reform and population ageing in a two-sector growth model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groezen, Bas van; Meijdam, L.; Verbon, H.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the e¤ects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy. The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector. Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector

  14. Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Meijdam, A.C.; Verbon, H.A.A.

    2002-01-01

    This paper analyses the effects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy.The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector.Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector and

  15. Population growth rates of reef sharks with and without fishing on the great barrier reef: robust estimation with multiple models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mizue Hisano

    Full Text Available Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and

  16. Genetic Parameter Estimation in Seedstock Swine Population for Growth Performances

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jae Gwan Choi

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters that are to be used for across-herd genetic evaluations of seed stock pigs at GGP level. Performance data with pedigree information collected from swine breeder farms in Korea were provided by Korea Animal Improvement Association (AIAK. Performance data were composed of final body weights at test days and ultrasound measures of back fat thickness (BF, rib eye area (EMA and retail cut percentage (RCP. Breeds of swine tested were Landrace, Yorkshire and Duroc. Days to 90 kg body weight (DAYS90 were estimated with linear function of age and ADG calculated from body weights at test days. Ultrasound measures were taken with A-mode ultrasound scanners by trained technicians. Number of performance records after censoring outliers and keeping records pigs only born from year 2000 were of 78,068 Duroc pigs, 101,821 Landrace pigs and 281,421 Yorkshire pigs. Models included contemporary groups defined by the same herd and the same seasons of births of the same year, which was regarded as fixed along with the effect of sex for all traits and body weight at test day as a linear covariate for ultrasound measures. REML estimation was processed with REMLF90 program. Heritability estimates were 0.40, 0.32, 0.21 0.39 for DAYS90, ADG, BF, EMA, RCP, respectively for Duroc population. Respective heritability estimates for Landrace population were 0.43, 0.41, 0.22, and 0.43 and for Yorkshire population were 0.36, 0.38, 0.22, and 0.42. Genetic correlation coefficients of DAYS90 with BF, EMA, or RCP were estimated to be 0.00 to 0.09, −0.15 to −0.25, 0.22 to 0.28, respectively for three breeds populations. Genetic correlation coefficients estimated between BF and EMA was −0.33 to −0.39. Genetic correlation coefficient estimated between BF and RCP was high and negative (−0.78 to −0.85 but the environmental correlation coefficients between these two traits was medium and negative (near −0

  17. Growth performance, carcass yield and intestinal microflora populations of broilers fed diets containing thepax and yogurt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A Boostani

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available The present study aimed at evaluating the effect of the probiotic thepax and yogurt (as probiotic on the growth response and intestinal microflora results of broiler chickens. Two hundred forty day-old Ross 308 broilers were equally distributed into 12 floor pens and reared for 42 day. The treatments consisted of yogurt (10, 5 and 2.5% during starter, grower and finisher periods in the drinking water, respectively and thepax (1000, 500, 250 g/ton-1 in the starter, grower and finisher diets, respectively, resulting three experimental diets and a control group. Each dietary treatment was fed ad-libitum to four replicate group of 20 birds at the beginning of rearing period. Birds and feed were weighed on days 21 and 42. The results of experiment indicate that diets containing feed additives improved broiler performance. The body weight gain and feed conversion ratio improved significantly more (p < 0.05 with the thepax treatment compared with the control broilers during the total rearing period. The highest (p < 0.05 carcass and thigh values were recorded for broilers fed the diet supplemented with thepax and yogurt, respectively. The lowest abdominal fat pad value was obtained in broilers fed the diet supplemented with thepax. On d 21, thepax and yogurt significantly reduced (p < 0.05 cecal Escherichia coli and Clostridium perfringens populations compared with the control group. In conclusion, thepax and yogurt improved broilers growth response and conferred intestinal health benefits to chickens by improving their microbial ecology.

  18. Growth and Reproduction of Glyphosate-Resistant and Susceptible Populations of Kochia scoparia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Vipan; Jha, Prashant

    2015-01-01

    Evolution of glyphosate-resistant kochia is a threat to no-till wheat-fallow and glyphosate-resistant (GR) cropping systems of the US Great Plains. The EPSPS (5-enol-pyruvylshikimate-3-phosphate synthase) gene amplification confers glyphosate resistance in the tested Kochia scoparia (L.) Schrad populations from Montana. Experiments were conducted in spring to fall 2014 (run 1) and summer 2014 to spring 2015 (run 2) to investigate the growth and reproductive traits of the GR vs. glyphosate-susceptible (SUS) populations of K. scoparia and to determine the relationship of EPSPS gene amplification with the level of glyphosate resistance. GR K. scoparia inbred lines (CHES01 and JOP01) exhibited 2 to 14 relative copies of the EPSPS gene compared with the SUS inbred line with only one copy. In the absence of glyphosate, no differences in growth and reproductive parameters were evident between the tested GR and SUS inbred lines, across an intraspecific competition gradient (1 to 170 plants m-2). GR K. scoparia plants with 2 to 4 copies of the EPSPS gene survived the field-use rate (870 g ha-1) of glyphosate, but failed to survive the 4,350 g ha-1 rate of glyphosate (five-times the field-use rate). In contrast, GR plants with 5 to 14 EPSPS gene copies survived the 4,350 g ha-1 of glyphosate. The results from this research indicate that GR K. scoparia with 5 or more EPSPS gene copies will most likely persist in field populations, irrespective of glyphosate selection pressure. PMID:26580558

  19. Active population growth and immigration hypotheses in Western Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feld, S

    2000-03-01

    The paper examines, in respect of 12 Western European countries over a period of 20 years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labor. This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labor market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, the authors may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labor will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary. The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labor. The authors deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalization on the main determinants of international migration of labor.

  20. The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

    2014-04-01

    The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

  1. Comparing population recovery after insecticide exposure for four aquatic invertebrate species using models of different complexity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baveco, J M Hans; Norman, Steve; Roessink, Ivo; Galic, Nika; Van den Brink, Paul J

    2014-07-01

    Population models, in particular individual-based models (IBMs), are becoming increasingly important in chemical risk assessment. They can be used to assess recovery of spatially structured populations after chemical exposure that varies in time and space. The authors used an IBM coupled to a toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic model, the threshold damage model (TDM), to assess recovery times for 4 aquatic organisms, after insecticide application, in a nonseasonal environment and in 3 spatial settings (pond, stream, and ditch). The species had different life histories (e.g., voltinism, reproductive capacity, mobility). Exposure was derived from a pesticide fate model, following standard European Union scenarios. The results of the IBM-TDM were compared with results from simpler models: one in which exposure was linked to effects by means of concentration-effect relationships (IBM-CE) and one in which the IBM was replaced by a nonspatial, logistic growth model (logistic). For the first, exposure was based on peak concentrations only; for the second, exposure was spatially averaged as well. By using comparisons between models of different complexity and species with different life histories, the authors obtained an understanding of the role spatial processes play in recovery and the conditions under which the full time-varying exposure needs to be considered. The logistic model, which is amenable to an analytic approach, provided additional insights into the sensitivity of recovery times to density dependence and spatial dimensions. © 2014 SETAC.

  2. Molecular-level variation affects population growth in a butterfly metapopulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ilkka Hanski

    2006-05-01

    Full Text Available The dynamics of natural populations are thought to be dominated by demographic and environmental processes with little influence of intraspecific genetic variation and natural selection, apart from inbreeding depression possibly reducing population growth in small populations. Here we analyse hundreds of well-characterised local populations in a large metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia, which persists in a balance between stochastic local extinctions and recolonisations in a network of 4,000 discrete habitat patches. We show that the allelic composition of the glycolytic enzyme phosphoglucose isomerase (Pgi has a significant effect on the growth of local populations, consistent with previously reported effects of allelic variation on flight metabolic performance and fecundity in the Glanville fritillary and Colias butterflies. The strength and the sign of the molecular effect on population growth are sensitive to the ecological context (the area and spatial connectivity of the habitat patches, which affects genotype-specific gene flow and the influence of migration on the dynamics of local populations. The biological significance of the results for Pgi is underscored by lack of any association between population growth and allelic variation at six other loci typed in the same material. In demonstrating, to our knowledge for the first time, that molecular variation in a candidate gene affects population growth, this study challenges the perception that differential performance of individual genotypes, leading to differential fitness, is irrelevant to population dynamics. These results also demonstrate that the spatial configuration of habitat and spatial dynamics of populations contribute to maintenance of Pgi polymorphism in this species.

  3. Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana predates human agricultural activity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cox Murray P

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene.

  4. Population parameters to compare dog breeds : differences between five Dutch purebred populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nielen, A.L.J.; Beek, van der S.; Ubbink, G.J.; Knol, B.W.

    2001-01-01

    Differences in five purebred dog populations born in 1994 in the Netherlands were evaluated using different parameters. Numerically, the Golden Retriever was the largest breed (840 litters of 234 sires) and the Kooiker Dog (101 litters of 41 sires) the smallest. The litter per sire ratio was largest

  5. Operculina from the northwestern Pacific (Sesoko Island, Japan) Species Differentiation, Population Dynamics, Growth and Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Woeger, Julia; Eder, Wolfgang; Kinoshita, Shunichi; Briguglio, Antonino; Hohenegger, Johann

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades larger benthic foraminifera have gained importance as indicator species and are used in a variety of applications, from ecological monitoring, studying the effects of ocean acidification, or reconstructing paleoenvironments. They significantly contribute to the carbonate budget of costal areas and are invaluable tools in biostratigraphy. Even before their advancement as bioindicators, laboratory experiments have been conducted to investigate the effects of various ecological parameters on community composition, biology of single species, or investigating the effects of salinity and temperature on stable isotope composition of the foraminiferal test, to name only a few. The natural laboratory approach (continuous sampling over a period of more than one year) was conducted at the island of Sesoko (Okinawa, Japan). in combination with µ-CT scanning was used to reveal population dynamics of 3 different morphotypes of Operculina. The clarification of reproductive cycles as well as generation and size abundances were used to calculate natural growth models. Best fit was achieved using Bertalanffy and Michaelis-Menten functions. Exponential-, logistic-, generalized logistic-, Gompertz-function yielded weaker fits, when compared by coefficient of determination as well as Akaike Information criterion. The resulting growth curves and inferred growth rates were in turn used to evaluate the quality of a laboratory cultivation experiment carried out simultaneously over a period of 15 months. Culturing parameters such as temperature, light intensities, salinity and pH and light-dark duration were continuously adapted to measurements in the field. The average investigation time in culture was 77days. 13 Individuals lived more than 200 days, 3 reproduced asexually and one sexually. 14% of 186 Individuals were lost, while 22% could not be kept alive for more than one month. Growth curves also represent an instrumental source of information for the various

  6. Population Growth Parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) on Tomato Plant Using Organic Substrate and Biofertilizers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mohamadi, P; Razmjou, J; Naseri, B; Hassanpour, M

    2017-01-01

    The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) is a devastating pest associated with tomato. In this study, effects of tomato plants treated with vermicompost (20, 40, and 60%), humic fertilizer (2, 4 and 6 g/kg soil) and plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (Pseudomonas fluorescens and Bacillus subtilis) were investigated on the life table parameters of T. absoluta in a growth chamber at 25 ± 2 °C, 65 ± 5% RH, and 16:8 (L:D) h. Significant differences were found for the total developmental time, fecundity, and oviposition period of T. absoluta on the treatments tested. The net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm), finite rate of increase (λ), mean generation time (T), and doubling time (DT) of T. absoluta were significantly different among treatments tested. We found that in all vermicompost, humic fertilizer and plant growth promoting rhizobacteria treatments, values of R0, rm, and λ were lower than control treatment. However, the lowest values of these parameters were obtained on 2 g/kg humic fertilizer and 40% vermicompost. Furthermore, T. absoluta had longest T and DT values on 2 g/kg humic fertilizer treatment. Data obtained showed that the addition of 2 g/kg humic fertilizer and 40% vermicompost to the growing soil reduced T. absoluta populations in tomato cultures. In addition, these levels of fertilizers improved growth parameters of tomato seedlings (plant height, wet weight, and dry weight) compared with other treatments. These results could be useful in improving the sustainable management of the moth. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

  7. Population Growth Parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) on Tomato Plant Using Organic Substrate and Biofertilizers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razmjou, J.; Naseri, B.; Hassanpour, M.

    2017-01-01

    The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) is a devastating pest associated with tomato. In this study, effects of tomato plants treated with vermicompost (20, 40, and 60%), humic fertilizer (2, 4 and 6 g/kg soil) and plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (Pseudomonas fluorescens and Bacillus subtilis) were investigated on the life table parameters of T. absoluta in a growth chamber at 25 ± 2 °C, 65 ± 5% RH, and 16:8 (L:D) h. Significant differences were found for the total developmental time, fecundity, and oviposition period of T. absoluta on the treatments tested. The net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of natural increase (rm), finite rate of increase (λ), mean generation time (T), and doubling time (DT) of T. absoluta were significantly different among treatments tested. We found that in all vermicompost, humic fertilizer and plant growth promoting rhizobacteria treatments, values of R0, rm, and λ were lower than control treatment. However, the lowest values of these parameters were obtained on 2 g/kg humic fertilizer and 40% vermicompost. Furthermore, T. absoluta had longest T and DT values on 2 g/kg humic fertilizer treatment. Data obtained showed that the addition of 2 g/kg humic fertilizer and 40% vermicompost to the growing soil reduced T. absoluta populations in tomato cultures. In addition, these levels of fertilizers improved growth parameters of tomato seedlings (plant height, wet weight, and dry weight) compared with other treatments. These results could be useful in improving the sustainable management of the moth. PMID:28355477

  8. From demographic dividend to demographic burden: The impact of population ageing on economic growth in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Gaag, N.L.; de Beer, J.A.A.

    2015-01-01

    In the coming years, the share of the working-age population in the total population will start to decline in all countries of the European Union. All other things remaining equal, this so-called demographic burden will have a downward effect on economic growth. This paper examines whether the

  9. Growth and physiological responses to varied environments among populations of Pinus ponderosa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jianwei Zhang; Bert M. Cregg

    2005-01-01

    We investigated population responses in physiology, morphology, and growth of mature Pinus ponderosa trees to an environmental gradient across Nebraska, USA. Ten populations from western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming were grown in three 26-year-old provenance tests from the warmest and wettest site in the east (Plattsmouth) to the intermediate site in...

  10. The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas C. Marcin

    1974-01-01

    Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

  11. Studies of Health and Long-Term Care Expenditure Growth in Aging Populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A.M. de Meijer (Claudine)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractIn recent decades, elderly populations in most developed countries have increased considerably, both in absolute and relative terms. This growth of the elderly share of the population is mainly attributable to two demographic transitions: the (simultaneous) increase in longevity and

  12. Population differentiation for germination and early seedling root growth traits under saline conditions in the annual legume Medicago truncatula (Fabaceae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordeiro, Matilde A; Moriuchi, Ken S; Fotinos, Tonya D; Miller, Kelsey E; Nuzhdin, Sergey V; von Wettberg, Eric J; Cook, Douglas R

    2014-03-01

    Seedling establishment and survival are highly sensitive to soil salinity and plants that evolved in saline environments are likely to express traits that increase fitness in those environments. Such traits are of ecological interest and they may have practical value for improving salt tolerance in cultivated species. We examined responses to soil salinity and tested potential mechanisms of salt tolerance in Medicago truncatula, using genotypes that originated from natural populations occurring on saline and nonsaline soils. Germination and seedling responses were quantified and compared between saline and nonsaline origin genotypes. Germination treatments included a range of sodium chloride (NaCl) concentrations in both offspring and parental environments. Seedling treatments included NaCl, abscisic acid (ABA), and potassium chloride (KCl). Saline origin genotypes displayed greater salinity tolerance for germination and seedling traits relative to nonsaline origin genotypes. We observed population specific differences for the effects of salinity on time to germination and for the impact of parental environment on germination rates. ABA and NaCl treatments had similar negative effects on root growth, although relative sensitivities differed, with saline population less sensitive to NaCl and more sensitive to ABA compared to their nonsaline counterparts. We report population differentiation for germination and seedling growth traits under saline conditions among populations derived from saline and nonsaline environments. These observations are consistent with a syndrome of adaptations for salinity tolerance during early plant development, including traits that are common among saline environments and those that are idiosyncratic to local populations.

  13. Endogenous population growth and the exploitation of renewable resources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G; Wirl, F

    1994-01-01

    The authors consider a demo-economic model where the economy consists of two sectors ("hunting and farming" and "industry"), and both sectors depend directly or indirectly on the explanation of a renewable resource. The primary sector harvests a renewable resource (fish, corn, or wood) which is used as the input into industrial production, the secondary sector of our economy. Labor is divided up between these two sectors under the assumption of competitive labor markets. A system of two nonlinear differential equations for the resources and the population is studied by phase space analysis. Using the Hopf bifurcation theorem, the authors obtain two different routes to limit cycles and prove numerically the existence of a stable Malthusian limit cycle.

  14. Association of Transforming Growth Factor Alpha Polymorphisms with Nonsyndromic Cleft Lip and Palate in Iranian Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebadifar, Asghar; Hamedi, Roya; Khorram Khorshid, Hamid Reza; Saliminejad, Kioomars; Kamali, Koorosh; Aghakhani Moghadam, Fatemeh; Esmaeili Anvar, Nazanin; Ameli, Nazilla

    2015-01-01

    Cleft lip with or without cleft palate (CL/P) is one of the most common congenital anomalies and the etiology of orofacial clefts is multifactorial. Transforming growth factor alpha (TGFA) is expressed at the medial edge epithelium of fusing palatal shelves during craniofacial development. In this study, the association of two important TGFA gene polymorphisms, BamHI (rs11466297) and RsaI (rs3732248), with CL/P was evaluated in an Iranian population. The frequencies of BamHI and RsaI variations were determined in 105 unrelated Iranian subjects with nonsyndromic CL/P and 218 control subjects using PCR and RFLP methods, and the results were compared with healthy controls. A p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. The BamHI AC genotype was significantly higher (p=0.016) in the patients (12.4%) than the control group (5.0%). The BamHI C allele was significantly higher (p=0.001; OR=3.4, 95% CI: 1.6-7.4) in the cases (8.0%) compared with the control group (2.5%). Our study showed that there was an association between the TGFA BamHI variation and nonsyndromic CL/P in Iranian population.

  15. Growth comparison in children with and without food allergies in 2 different demographic populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Harshna; Ramesh, Manish; Feuille, Elizabeth; Groetch, Marion; Wang, Julie

    2014-10-01

    To examine the effects of food avoidance on the growth of children with food allergies. A retrospective chart review was performed for children with and without food allergies followed at 2 New York City general pediatric practices. Charts were selected based on codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, for well child visit, food allergy, anaphylaxis, and/or epinephrine autoinjector prescriptions. Heights and weights were obtained to calculate body mass index, height, and weight z-scores. Of the 9938 children seen, 439 (4.4%) were avoiding one or more foods. Of those with commercial insurance, children with food allergies were significantly shorter (mean height z-score = 0.06; P = .01) and weighed less (mean weight z-score -0.1; P = .006) than children without food allergies (mean height z-score = 0.42; mean weight z-score = 0.07). In contrast, children with food allergies and state insurance were not smaller in height or weight compared with children without food allergies. Among white subjects, there was a significant effect of food allergies on height and weight (ANOVA for height P = .012, for weight P = .0036) that was not observed for Hispanic/Latino, black, or Asian subjects. Children with allergies to milk weighed significantly less than children without milk allergies (P = .0006). Children with food allergies and commercial insurance have significant impairment in growth compared with those without food allergies. Additionally, children avoiding all forms of milk are shorter and weigh less than matched counterparts. Therefore, height and weight measurements should be assessed routinely in children with food allergies because there is risk for growth impairment in this population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Population growth rate determinants for Arbacia: Evaluating ecological relevance of toxicity test endpoints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nacci, D.; Gleason, T.; Munns, W.R. Jr. [Environmental Protection Agency, Narragansett, RI (United States). Environmental Research Lab.

    1995-12-31

    A population dynamics model for the sea urchin, Arbacia punctulata, was recently developed incorporating life stage endpoints frequently measured in acute and chronic toxicity studies. Model elasticity analysis was used to demonstrate that population growth rate was influenced most by adult survival and least by early life stage success, calling into question the ecological relevance of results from standardized Arbacia fertilization and larval development toxicity tests. Two approaches were used to continue this evaluation. Actual and hypothetical dose-response curves for toxicant exposures over multiple life stages were used to evaluate contributions to population growth rate of stage-specific toxicant effects. Additionally, relationships between critical life stages were developed from laboratory data for Arbacia. The results of this analysis underscore the importance of understanding both endpoint sensitivity to toxicants and sensitivity of population growth rate to test endpoints in determining the ecological relevance of toxicity tests results.

  17. Relation of caffeine intake and blood caffeine concentrations during pregnancy to fetal growth: prospective population based study.

    OpenAIRE

    Cook, D.G.; Peacock, J. L.; Feyerabend, C; Carey, I M; Jarvis, M J; Anderson, H. R.; Bland, J M

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: To examine the association of plasma caffeine concentrations during pregnancy with fetal growth and to compare this with relations with reported caffeine intake. DESIGN: Prospective population based study. SETTING: District general hospital, inner London. SUBJECTS: Women booking for delivery between 1982 and 1984. Stored plasma was available for 1,500 women who had provided a blood sample on at least one occasion and for 640 women who had provided a sample on all three occasions (...

  18. A spatial analysis of patterns of growth and concentration of population based on homogeneous population censuses: Spain (1877-2001

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xavier Franch Auladell

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This work constitutes a contribution to the analysis of long term patterns of population concentration applied to the case of Spain. The proposed methodology is based on the homogenisation of both data and administrative units which takes the municipal structure of the 2001 census as its base reference. This work seeks to show how applying spatial analysis techniques to this type of homogeneous data series allows us to make more detailed studies of population patterns within a given territory. The most important conclusions that we reached was that, in Spain, sustained population growth has followed a spatial pattern that has become increasingly consolidated over time. The tendencies observed have produced an uneven distribution of population within the national territory marked by the existence of a series of well-defined, and often very localised, areas that spread beyond the limits of the official administrative boundaries.

  19. Facial growth in patients with apert and crouzon syndromes compared to normal children

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reitsma, J.H.; Ongkosuwito, E.M.; Buschang, P.H.; Prahl-Andersen, B.

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate vertical and sagittal facial growth in children with Apert and Crouzon syndromes and compare it to the growth patterns of a nonsyndromic control group. Design: Case-control study. Setting: Department of Orthodontics, Children's Hospital Erasmus Medical Centre, Sophia,

  20. Growth and demographic patterns of marriages of foreign population in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Clara Cortina

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The dramatic growth of international immigration in Spain during the last decade has considerably increased the number of marriages with at least one foreign national. Between 1989 and 2004, the proportion of these marriages increased from 4% to12%, totalling 25.618 unions in 2004. However, marriage patterns of foreign nationals have attracted little attention among researcher spartly because of the small number of cases that were available until recently. Within this context, this paper examines the growth and demographic patterns of marriages of foreign populationin Spain, compared to those of only Spanish nationals, taking into account the age at marriage, type of union (religious or civil,first and later order of marriages, and degree of endogamy. We use microdata from the Spanish vital statistics on marriages (Movimiento Natural de la Población between 1989 and 2004. Results show that marriages of foreign population in Spain, particularly those that involve one Spanish partner, present some distinct characteristics, in particular associated with gender, in contrast to those marriages that only involve Spanish nationals.

  1. The Commission on Population Growth and the American Future: its origins, operations, and aftermath.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westoff, C F

    1973-10-01

    The origins, organization, and operation of the Commission on Population Growth and the American Future and the response to its report are described. The origins of the Commission are traced to a concern with the consequences of U.S. population growth on the part of such key individuals as John D. Rockefeller 3rd and Paul Ehrlich. Because the Commission was a statutory creation of Congress, its membership included 4 Congressmen in addition to 20 distinguished citizens representing a spectrum of groups and views. The evaluation of the consequences of growth, as opposed to the means of reducing fertility, became the major concern of the research effort. Several issues led to differences within the Commission: 1) A narrow versus a broad definition of the scope of the report; 2) differing perceptions of the population problem as manifested by the ecological view, the "unwanted fertility" school, and the social justice view. The social science work contracted by the Commission had a significant impact on the final report's substance: 1) the demographic work on population projections was crucial to the analysis of the consequences of growth; 2) evaluating the demographic capability of national "growth center strategy" had an influence; and 3) the need to eliminate unwanted fertility was confirmed as a necessary priority. The basic thrust of the Commission's report was to recomment slowing growth in order to maximize the quality of life.

  2. Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

    2017-01-01

    Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

  3. Nutrient foraging strategies are associated with productivity and population growth in forest shrubs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caplan, Joshua S; Stone, Bram W G; Faillace, Cara A; Lafond, Jonathan J; Baumgarten, Joni M; Mozdzer, Thomas J; Dighton, John; Meiners, Scott J; Grabosky, Jason C; Ehrenfeld, Joan G

    2017-04-01

    Temperate deciduous forest understoreys are experiencing widespread changes in community composition, concurrent with increases in rates of nitrogen supply. These shifts in plant abundance may be driven by interspecific differences in nutrient foraging (i.e. conservative vs. acquisitive strategies) and, thus, adaptation to contemporary nutrient loading conditions. This study sought to determine if interspecific differences in nutrient foraging could help explain patterns of shrub success and decline in eastern North American forests. Using plants grown in a common garden, fine root traits associated with nutrient foraging were measured for six shrub species. Traits included the mean and skewness of the root diameter distribution, specific root length (SRL), C:N ratio, root tissue density, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foraging precision. Above- and below-ground productivity were also determined for the same plants, and population growth rates were estimated using data from a long-term study of community dynamics. Root traits were compared among species and associations among root traits, measures of productivity and rates of population growth were evaluated. Species fell into groups having thick or thin root forms, which correspond to conservative vs. acquisitive nutrient foraging strategies. Interspecific variation in root morphology and tissue construction correlated with measures of productivity and rates of cover expansion. Of the four species with acquisitive traits, three were introduced species that have become invasive in recent decades, and the fourth was a weedy native. In contrast, the two species with conservative traits were historically dominant shrubs that have declined in abundance in eastern North American forests. In forest understoreys of eastern North America, elevated nutrient availability may impose a filter on species success in addition to above-ground processes such as herbivory and overstorey canopy conditions. Shrubs that have

  4. Plant defences limit herbivore population growth by changing predator-prey interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kersch-Becker, Mônica F; Kessler, André; Thaler, Jennifer S

    2017-09-13

    Plant quality and predators are important factors affecting herbivore population growth, but how they interact to regulate herbivore populations is not well understood. We manipulated jasmonate-induced plant resistance, exposure to the natural predator community and herbivore density to test how these factors jointly and independently affect herbivore population growth. On low-resistance plants, the predator community was diverse and abundant, promoting high predator consumption rates. On high-resistance plants, the predator community was less diverse and abundant, resulting in low predator consumption rate. Plant resistance only directly regulated aphid population growth on predator-excluded plants. When predators were present, plant resistance indirectly regulated herbivore population growth by changing the impact of predators on the herbivorous prey. A possible mechanism for the interaction between plant resistance and predation is that methyl salicylate, a herbivore-induced plant volatile attractive to predators, was more strongly induced in low-resistance plants. Increased plant resistance reduced predator attractant lures, preventing predators from locating their prey. Low-resistance plants may regulate herbivore populations via predators by providing reliable information on prey availability and increasing the effectiveness of predators. © 2017 The Author(s).

  5. Growth curves of preschool children in the northeast of iran: a population based study using quantile regression approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

    2013-01-14

    Growth charts are widely used to assess children's growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children's weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn't require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values.

  6. Herbivory by an introduced Asian weevil negatively affects population growth of an invasive Brazilian shrub in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stricker, Kerry Bohl; Stiling, Peter

    2012-08-01

    The enemy release hypothesis (ERH) is often cited to explain why some plants successfully invade natural communities while others do not. This hypothesis maintains that plant populations are regulated by coevolved enemies in their native range but are relieved of this pressure where their enemies have not been co-introduced. Some studies have shown that invasive plants sustain lower levels of herbivore damage when compared to native species, but how damage affects fitness and population dynamics remains unclear. We used a system of co-occurring native and invasive Eugenia congeners in south Florida (USA) to experimentally test the ERH, addressing deficiencies in our understanding of the role of natural enemies in plant invasion at the population level. Insecticide was used to experimentally exclude insect herbivores from invasive Eugenia uniflora and its native co-occurring congeners in the field for two years. Herbivore damage, plant growth, survival, and population growth rates for the three species were then compared for control and insecticide-treated plants. Our results contradict the ERH, indicating that E. uniflora sustains more herbivore damage than its native congeners and that this damage negatively impacts stem height, survival, and population growth. In addition, most damage to E. uniflora, a native of Brazil, is carried out by Myllocerus undatus, a recently introduced weevil from Sri Lanka, and M. undatus attacks a significantly greater proportion of E. uniflora leaves than those of its native congeners. This interaction is particularly interesting because M. undatus and E. uniflora share no coevolutionary history, having arisen on two separate continents and come into contact on a third. Our study is the first to document negative population-level effects for an invasive plant as a result of the introduction of a novel herbivore. Such inhibitory interactions are likely to become more prevalent as suites of previously noninteracting species continue to

  7. A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

    2017-07-07

    We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  8. Sustainability of population growth: a case study of urban settlements in Israel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Portnov, B A; Pearlmutter, D

    1997-01-01

    "One of the most sensitive criteria for gauging the degree of socio-economic prosperity of an urban settlement is the ability to sustain stable rates of population growth by attracting newcomers and retaining existing population. The present paper argues that after reaching a particular size (on the average, 20-30,000 residents), urban localities in Israel tend to experience substantial changes in components of their annual population growth. Starting with this inflection point, the growth of settlements gradually becomes less dependent on natural causes (birth and death rates) than on the ability to attract newcomers and retain current residents. On the basis of this conclusion, a strategy of ¿redirecting priorities' to developing the peripheral regions of the country is suggested." excerpt

  9. Clonal variation in growth plasticity within a Bosmina longirostris population: the potential for resistance to toxic cyanobacteria.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodong Jiang

    Full Text Available Many aquatic organisms respond phenotypically, through morphological, behavioral, and physiological plasticity, to environmental changes. The small-size cladoceran Bosminalongirostris, a dominant zooplankter in eutrophic waters, displayed reduced growth rates in response to the presence of a toxic cyanobacterium, Microcystisaeruginosa, in their diets. The magnitude of growth reduction differed among 15 clones recently isolated from a single population. A significant interaction between clone and food type indicated a genetic basis for the difference in growth plasticity. The variation in phenotypic plasticity was visualized by plotting reaction norms with two diets. The resistance of each clone to dietary cyanobacteria was measured as the relative change in growth rates on the "poor" diet compared with the "good" diet. The enhanced resistance to M. aeruginosa in B. longirostris was derived from both the reduced slope of reaction norms and the increased mean growth rates with two diets. The large clonal variation within a B. longirostris population may contribute to local adaptation to toxic cyanobacteria and influence ecosystem function via clonal succession.

  10. PR-Set7 deficiency limits uterine epithelial population growth hampering postnatal gland formation in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Tongtong; He, Bo; Kong, Shuangbo; Zhou, Chan; Zhang, Hangxiao; Ni, Zhangli; Bao, Haili; Qiu, Jingtao; Xin, Qiliang; Reinberg, Danny; Lydon, John P; Lu, Jinhua; Wang, Haibin

    2017-07-21

    Formation of secretary endometrial glands in the uterus known as adenogenesis is a typical process of branching morphogenesis involving dynamic epithelial growth and differentiation. Unsuccessful adenogenesis often leads to female infertility. However, it remains largely unexplored so far regarding the epigenetic machinery governing normal endometrial gland formation. Here, we demonstrated that PR-Set7, an epigenetic regulator for H4K20me1 modification, was extensively expressed in the postnatal uteri, and its conditional deletion resulted in a complete lack of endometrial glands and infertility in mice. Subsequent analysis revealed that uterine PR-Set7 deficiency abolishes the dynamic endometrial epithelial population growth during the short span of gland formation from postnatal days 3 to 9. This markedly reduced epithelial population growth in PR-Set7-null mutant uteri is well associated with DNA damage accumulation and massive apoptotic death in the epithelium, due to blockade of 53BP1 recruitment to DNA damage sites upon reduced levels of H4K20me1/2. Using Pgr(Cre/+)/Rosa26(DTA/+) mouse line and postnatal progesterone injection mouse model, we further confirmed that an impaired epithelial cell population growth either by inducing epithelial death in the diphtheria toxin-A (DTA)-mouse model or attenuating epithelial growth upon postnatal progesterone treatment similarly hampers uterine adenogenesis. Collectively, we establish here a novel 'epithelial population growth threshold' model for successful gland development. Besides further shedding light on the regulatory machinery governing uterine gland formation, our findings raise a safety concern on progesterone supplementation to prevent preterm birth in women bearing a female fetus, as exogenous progesterone may hamper uterine adenogenesis via attenuating epithelial population growth.Cell Death and Differentiation advance online publication, 21 July 2017; doi:10.1038/cdd.2017.120.

  11. Respective impact of climate and fisheries on the growth of an albatross population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolland, V; Nevoux, M; Barbraud, C; Weimerskirch, H

    2009-07-01

    Climate and human activities such as fisheries impact many animal species. However, the demographic processes through which the population vital rates are affected, and the sensitivity of their growth rates, are poorly understood. The Black-browed Albatross, Thalassarche melanophrys, is a long-lived threatened seabird species. Previous studies have shown that the adult survival and breeding success of the population breeding at Kerguelen are affected by sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) during both the breeding and the nonbreeding season, and by tuna long-lining in Tasmanian waters through bycatch mortality. Here, using long-term demographic data from a Black-browed Albatross colony monitored for 26 years at Kerguelen, we estimate all demographic parameters from early to adult stages of the life cycle in order to build a fully parameterized population model and predict population growth rates under several scenarios of climate and fishing effort. The observed population growth rate (1.003) indicates that the population was stable or slightly increasing, and our population model gives a close estimate of 1.008. Population growth rate is more sensitive to survival of experienced breeders and accordingly to a change in SSTA during incubation and to tuna long-lining effort (both affecting survival of experienced breeders) than to other demographic parameters/environmental covariates. The population stability results from multiple factors and complex relationships between demographic parameters and environmental conditions, and therefore population equilibrium is precarious. If fishing effort remains stable at its current level and positive SSTA increase, or inversely if fishing effort decreases and SSTA remain similar to present values, then the population would increase. However, if fishing effort increases by 20% (i.e., to 40 million hooks) on the wintering grounds, without any change in SSTA, then the population would decrease at 0.9% per year. If fishing

  12. The effects of population growth on timber management and inventories in Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    David N. Wear; Rei Liu; J. Michael Foreman; Raymond M. Sheffield

    1999-01-01

    Expanding human populations may have important effects on the availability of timber from private lands in the South. To examine the effects of development on timber supply, the authors compared the density of populations and various site variables with expert opinions on the future location of commercial timberland for a study site in Virginia. Population density is a...

  13. Comparative age and growth of common snook Centropomus undecimalis (Pisces: Centropomidae from coastal and riverine areas in Southern Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martha A. Perera-Garcia

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Common snook Centropomus unidecimalis is an important commercial and fishery species in Southern Mexico, however the high exploitation rates have resulted in a strong reduction of its abundances. Since, the information about its population structure is scarce, the objective of the present research was to determine and compare the age structure in four important fishery sites. For this, age and growth of common snook were determined from specimens collected monthly, from July 2006 to March 2008, from two coastal (Barra Bosque and Barra San Pedro and two riverine (San Pedro and Tres Brazos commercial fishery sites in Tabasco, Mexico. Age was determined using sectioned saggitae otoliths and data analyzed by von Bertalanffy and Levenberg-Marquardt among others. Estimated ages ranged from 2 to 17 years. Monthly patterns of marginal increment formation and the percentage of otoliths with opaque rings on the outer edge demonstrated that a single annulus was formed each year. The von Bertalanffy parameters were calculated for males and females using linear adjustment and the non-linear method of Levenberg-Marquardt. The von Bertalanffy growth equations were FLt=109.21(1-e-0.21(t+0.57 for Barra Bosque, FLt=94.56(1-e-0.27(t+0.48 for Barra San Pedro, FLt=97.15(1-e-0.17(t+1.32 for San Pedro and FLt=83.77(1-e-0.26(t+0.49 for Tres Brazos. According to (Hotelling’s T², p<0.05 test growth was significantly greater for females than for males. Based on the Chen test, von Bertalanffy growth curves were different among the study sites (RSS, p<0.05. Based on the observed differences in growth parameters among sampling sites (coastal and riverine environments future research need to be conducted on migration and population genetics, in order to delineate the stock structure of this population and support management programs.

  14. Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ram, R

    1984-04-01

    The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

  15. Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

    2003-01-01

    Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

  16. Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

    2016-01-01

    Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (Q(ST)) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F'(ST)), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by

  17. The Effect of Temperature and Host Plant Resistance on Population Growth of the Soybean Aphid Biotype 1 (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hough, Ashley R; Nechols, James R; McCornack, Brian P; Margolies, David C; Sandercock, Brett K; Yan, Donglin; Murray, Leigh

    2017-02-01

    A laboratory experiment was conducted to evaluate direct and indirect effects of temperature on demographic traits and population growth of biotype 1 of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura. Our objectives were to better understand how temperature influences the expression of host plant resistance, quantify the individual and interactive effects of plant resistance and temperature on soybean aphid population growth, and generate thermal constants for predicting temperature-dependent development on both susceptible and resistant soybeans. To assess indirect (plant-mediated) effects, soybean aphids were reared under a range of temperatures (15-30 °C) on soybean seedlings from a line expressing a Rag1 gene for resistance, and life history traits were quantified and compared to those obtained for soybean aphids on a susceptible soybean line. Direct effects of temperature were obtained by comparing relative differences in the magnitude of life-history traits among temperatures on susceptible soybeans. We predicted that temperature and host plant resistance would have a combined, but asymmetrical, effect on soybean aphid fitness and population growth. Results showed that temperature and plant resistance influenced preimaginal development and survival, progeny produced, and adult longevity. There also appeared to be a complex interaction between temperature and plant resistance for survival and developmental rate. Evidence suggested that the level of plant resistance increased at higher, but not lower, temperature. Soybean aphids required about the same number of degree-days to develop on resistant and susceptible plants. Our results will be useful for making predictions of soybean aphid population growth on resistant plants under different seasonal temperatures. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  18. Modeling the pre-industrial roots of modern super-exponential population growth.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aaron Jonas Stutz

    Full Text Available To Malthus, rapid human population growth-so evident in 18th Century Europe-was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography--especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family

  19. Nonylphenol stimulates fecundity but not population growth rate (λ) of Folsomia candida

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Widarto, T.H.; Krogh, P. H.; Forbes, Valery E.

    2007-01-01

    of NP on these traits did not result in a statistically significant increase in population growth rate (λ). Decomposition analysis indicated that fecundity was the main contributor to the (non-significant) changes observed in λ However, since the elasticity of fecundity was very low, large changes...... at the population level and that λ is an appropriate endpoint for ecotoxicological studies. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

  20. Population Growth and Land Use Dynamics along Urban–Rural Gradient

    OpenAIRE

    Polyakov, Maksym; Zhang, Daowei

    2008-01-01

    In this study we apply a spatial conditional logit model to determine factors influencing land cover change in three contiguous counties in West Georgia between 1992 and 2001 using point (pixel) based observations of land characteristics. We found that accessibility to population and population growth affect not only development of rural lands and transition between agricultural and forestry uses, but also influence changes between forest types. The model could be used to project land use–l...

  1. Growth, Development and Land-Use in a Simple Agrarian Economy with Endogeneous Population

    OpenAIRE

    Skonhoft, Anders; Solstad, Jan Tore

    2003-01-01

    The paper analyses the relation between demographic transformation, agricultural transformation and land-use pressure within a simple agrarian economy where population is treated both as a cause and consequence of economic changes. In this Malthusian-type of economy, population growth and food production are interrelated through two production activities. First, agricultural land and labour are tied up in production of agricultural products determining the current flow of consumption. Secondl...

  2. [The volume, age structure, and rate of growth of the population of Mexico].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partida Bush, V

    1990-01-01

    The author analyzes the effects of levels and trends in fertility, mortality, and migration in Mexico during the period 1950-1985 on the volume, growth rate, and age structure of the population. In addition, the future consequences of recent demographic trends are considered, with a focus on the demand for primary education, the size of the economically active population, household size and structure, and the need for medical services.

  3. Economic Transformation, Population Growth and the Long-Run World Income Distribution

    OpenAIRE

    Marcos d Chamon; Michael R. Kremer

    2006-01-01

    We construct and calibrate a model of the world economy in which countries' opportunities to develop depend on their trade with advanced economies. Trade opportunities in turn depend on the relative population of the advanced and developing world. As developing countries become advanced, they further improve the trade prospects for the remaining developing countries. As long as the population growth differential between developing and advanced countries is not too large, the rate at which cou...

  4. Using a population growth model to simulate response of Plodia interpunctella Hübner to temperature and diet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Response to temperature and diet are major factors in the potential population growth of Plodia interpunctella Hübner, a damaging pest of many stored products. A population growth model was used to simulate population development on an optimal wheat-based diet and a sub-optimal diet of raisins at 20...

  5. India in the Twenty-first Century: The Challenge of Population Growth. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad, 1997 (India).

    Science.gov (United States)

    La Fleur, Mary Ann

    This paper contains a course outline for a five-hour graduate class focusing on the issue of population in India. Students examine contributing factors to population growth, along with studying characteristics of, and efforts to, control population growth. The significance of ethnic diversity in India also is addressed. Group discussion and group…

  6. Crowding out the Future: World Population Growth, U.S. Immigration, and Pressures on Natural Resources [and] Teacher's Guide.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Robert W.; Mehlman, Ira H.

    Using text, graphics, satellite imagery, and data this publication with accompanying teacher's guide seeks to illustrate three main points concerning world population: (1) rapid world population growth is placing untenable immigration pressures on the United States; (2) immigration and U.S. population growth patterns generally are regionally…

  7. Height-growth response to climatic changes differs among populations of Douglas-fir: a novel analysis of historic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leites, Laura P; Robinson, Andrew P; Rehfeldt, Gerald E; Marshall, John D; Crookston, Nicholas L

    2012-01-01

    Projected climate change will affect existing forests, as substantial changes are predicted to occur during their life spans. Species that have ample intraspecific genetic differentiation, such as Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), are expected to display population-specific growth responses to climate change. Using a mixed-effects modeling approach, we describe three-year height (HT) growth response to changes in climate of interior Douglas-fir populations. We incorporate climate information at the population level, yielding a model that is specific to both species and population. We use data from provenance tests from previous studies that comprised 236 populations from Idaho, Montana, and eastern Washington, USA. The most sensitive indicator of climate was the mean temperature of the coldest month. Population maximum HT and HT growth response to changes in climate were dependent on seed source climate. All populations had optimum HT growth when transferred to climates with warmer winters; those originating in sites with the warmest winters were taller across sites and had highest HT growth at transfer distances closest to zero; those from colder climates were shortest and had optimum HT growth when transferred the farthest. Although this differential response damped the height growth differences among populations, cold-climate populations still achieved their maximum growth at lower temperatures than warm-climate populations. The results highlight the relevance of understanding climate change impacts at the population level, particularly in a species with ample genetic variation among populations.

  8. The presence of Bt-transgenic oilseed rape in wild mustard populations affects plant growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yongbo; Stewart, C Neal; Li, Junsheng; Huang, Hai; Zhang, Xitao

    2015-12-01

    The adventitious presence of transgenic plants in wild plant populations is of ecological and regulatory concern, but the consequences of adventitious presence are not well understood. Here, we introduced Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ac (Bt)-transgenic oilseed rape (Bt OSR, Brassica napus) with various frequencies into wild mustard (Brassica juncea) populations. We sought to better understand the adventitious presence of this transgenic insecticidal crop in a wild-relative plant population. We assessed the factors of competition, resource availability and diamondback moth (Plutella xylostella) infestation on plant population dynamics. As expected, Bt OSR performed better than wild mustard in mixed populations under herbivore attack in habitats with enough resources, whereas wild mustard had higher fitness when Bt OSR was rarer in habitats with limited resources. Results suggest that the presence of insect-resistant transgenic plants could decrease the growth of wild mustard and Bt OSR plants and their populations, especially under high herbivore pressure.

  9. An investigation of the statistical power of neutrality tests based on comparative and population genetic data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhai, Weiwei; Nielsen, Rasmus; Slatkin, Montgomery

    2009-01-01

    In this report, we investigate the statistical power of several tests of selective neutrality based on patterns of genetic diversity within and between species. The goal is to compare tests based solely on population genetic data with tests using comparative data or a combination of comparative...

  10. Comparative Analysis of the Korean Population of Magnaporthe oryzae by Multilocus Microsatellite Typing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaehyuk Choi

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Rice blast fungus, Magnaporthe oryzae, inflicts serious damage to global rice production. Due to high variability of this fungal pathogen, resistance of newly-released rice cultivars is easily broken down. To understand the population structure of M. oryzae, we analyzed the genetic diversity of the Korean population using multilocus microsatellite typing. Eleven microsatellite markers were applied to the population of 190 rice isolates which had been collected in Korea for two decades since the 1980’s. Average values of gene diversity and allele frequency were 0.412 and 6.5, respectively. Comparative analysis of the digitized allele information revealed that the Korean population exhibited a similar level of allele diversity to the integrated diversity of the world populations, suggesting a particularly high diversity of the Korean population. Therefore, these microsatellite markers and the comprehensive collection of field isolates will be useful genetic resources to identify the genetic diversity of M. oryzae population.

  11. Climate change and population growth impacts on surface water supply and demand of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bisrat Kifle Arsiso

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 scenario and RCP8.5, high emissions scenario was used for the study. The result shows that the projected population of Addis Ababa city using high population growth rate (3.3% will be about 7 million by the year 2039. The climate change projections result under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios on surface water supply shows that the level of reservoirs volume both at Legedadi/Dire and Gefersa reservoirs will be reduced in the projected years between the years 2023 and 2039. The result of the RCP 8.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 257.28 million m3 in 2037. The result of the RCP 4.5 scenario with low population growth shows that the unmet water demand will be 314.91 million m3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand with the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario is higher than RCP 8.5 scenario. Under the RCP 4.5 scenario with high population growth (3.3% the unmet water demand is 87.42 million m3 in 2030, 158.38 million m3 in 2035 and 380.72 million m3 in 2037. This indicates that the unmet water demand in both high population growth and the dry climate of RCP 4.5 climate change scenario will lead to severe shortage of water in the city. The most effective management options are water tariff increasing, domestic water use

  12. An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Costamagna, A.C.; Werf, van der W.; Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Landis, D.A.

    2007-01-01

    1 There is ample evidence that the life history and population dynamics of aphids are closely linked to plant phenology. Based on life table studies, it has been proposed that the growth of aphid populations could be modeled with an exponential growth model, with r decreasing linearly with time.

  13. Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

    Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

  14. Wild and hatchery populations of Korean starry flounder (Platichthys stellatus) compared using microsatellite DNA markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    An, Hye Suck; Byun, Soon Gyu; Kim, Yi Cheong; Lee, Jang Wook; Myeong, Jeong-In

    2011-01-01

    Starry flounder (Platichthys stellatus) is an important sport and food fish found around the margins of the North Pacific. Aquaculture production of this species in Korea has increased because of its commercial value. Microsatellite DNA markers are a useful DNA-based tool for monitoring the genetic variation of starry flounder populations. In this study, 12 polymorphic microsatellite DNA markers were identified from a partial genomic starry flounder DNA library enriched in CA repeats, and used to compare allelic variation between wild and hatchery starry flounder populations in Korea. All loci were readily amplified and demonstrated high allelic diversity, with the number of alleles ranging from 6 to 18 in the wild population and from 2 to 12 in the farmed population. A total of 136 alleles were detected at the 12 microsatellite loci in the two populations. The mean observed and expected heterozygosities were 0.62 and 0.68, respectively, in the hatchery samples and 0.67 and 0.75, respectively, in the wild samples. These results indicate lower genetic variability in the hatchery population as compared to the wild population. Significant shifts in allelic frequencies were detected at eight loci, which resulted in a small but significant genetic differences between the wild and hatchery populations (F(ST) = 0.043, P hatchery populations. These microsatellite loci may be valuable for future population genetic studies, monitoring the genetic variation for successful aquaculture management and the preservation of aquatic biodiversity.

  15. Comparing growth phenology of co-occurring deciduous and evergreen conifers exposed to drought.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swidrak, Irene; Schuster, Roman; Oberhuber, Walter

    2013-12-01

    Plant phenological events are influenced by climate factors such as temperature and rainfall. To evaluate phenological responses to water availability in a Spring Heath-Pine wood (Erico-Pinetum typicum), the focus of this study was to determine intra-annual dynamics of apical and lateral growth of co-occurring early successional Larix decidua and Pinus sylvestris and late successional Picea abies exposed to drought. The effect of reduced plant water availability on growth phenology was investigated by conducting a rainfall exclusion experiment. Timing of key phenological dates (onset, maximum rate, end, duration) of growth processes were compared among species at the rain-sheltered and control plot during 2011 and 2012. Shoot and needle elongation were monitored on lateral branches in the canopy at c. 16 m height and radial growth was recorded by automatic dendrometers at c. 1.3 m height of > 120 yr old trees. Different sequences in aboveground growth phenology were detected among the three species under the same growing conditions. While onset of radial growth in April through early May was considerably preceded by onset of needle growth in Larix decidua (5 - 6 weeks) and shoot growth in Pinus sylvestris (c. 3 weeks), it occurred quite simultaneously with onset of shoot growth in Picea abies. Low water availability had a minor impact on onset of aboveground growth, which is related to utilization of stored water, but caused premature cessation of aboveground growth. At the control plot mean growing season length was 130 days in Pinus sylvestris, 95 days in Larix decidua and 73 days in Picea abies supporting the hypothesis that early successional species are resource expenders, while late successional species are more efficient in utilizing resources and develop safer life strategies. High synchronicity found in culmination of radial growth in late spring (mid-May through early June) prior to occurrence of more favourable environmental conditions in summer might

  16. A comparative assessment of the health status of feral populations of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A comparative assessment of the health status of feral populations of Clarias gariepinus from three dams in the Limpopo and Olifants river systems, Limpopo province, South Africa, using the fish health assessment index protocol.

  17. Impacts of breeder loss on social structure, reproduction and population growth in a social canid.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borg, Bridget L; Brainerd, Scott M; Meier, Thomas J; Prugh, Laura R

    2015-01-01

    The importance of individuals to the dynamics of populations may depend on reproductive status, especially for species with complex social structure. Loss of reproductive individuals in socially complex species could disproportionately affect population dynamics by destabilizing social structure and reducing population growth. Alternatively, compensatory mechanisms such as rapid replacement of breeders may result in little disruption. The impact of breeder loss on the population dynamics of social species remains poorly understood. We evaluated the effect of breeder loss on social stability, recruitment and population growth of grey wolves (Canis lupus) in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska using a 26-year dataset of 387 radiocollared wolves. Harvest of breeding wolves is a highly contentious conservation and management issue worldwide, with unknown population-level consequences. Breeder loss preceded 77% of cases (n = 53) of pack dissolution from 1986 to 2012. Packs were more likely to dissolve if a female or both breeders were lost and pack size was small. Harvest of breeders increased the probability of pack dissolution, likely because the timing of harvest coincided with the breeding season of wolves. Rates of denning and successful recruitment were uniformly high for packs that did not experience breeder loss; however, packs that lost breeders exhibited lower denning and recruitment rates. Breeder mortality and pack dissolution had no significant effects on immediate or longer term population dynamics. Our results indicate the importance of breeding individuals is context dependent. The impact of breeder loss on social group persistence, reproduction and population growth may be greatest when average group sizes are small and mortality occurs during the breeding season. This study highlights the importance of reproductive individuals in maintaining group cohesion in social species, but at the population level socially complex species may be resilient

  18. Comparative growth of spotted fever group Rickettsia spp. strains in Vero cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Arannadia Barbosa; Duarte, Myrian Morato; Vizzoni, Vinicius Figueiredo; Duré, Ana Íris de Lima; Lopéz, Diego Montenegro; Nogueira, Rita de Maria Seabra; Soares, Carlos Augusto Gomes; Machado-Ferreira, Erik; Gazêta, Gilberto Salles

    2016-01-01

    In Brazil, the spotted fever group (SFG) Rickettsia rickettsii and Rickettsia parkeri related species are the etiological agents of spotted fever rickettsiosis. However, the SFG, Rickettsia rhipicephali, that infects humans, has never been reported. The study of growth dynamics can be useful for understanding the infective and invasive capacity of these pathogens. Here, the growth rates of the Brazilian isolates R. rickettsii str. Taiaçu, R. parkeri str. At#24, and R. rhipicephali HJ#5, were evaluated in Vero cells by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. R. rhipicephali showed different kinetic growth compared to R. rickettsii and R. parkeri. PMID:27508322

  19. Population Growth of Small Harmful Rats in Grassland Subjected to Noise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xue-Mei; Li, Zhi-Bing; Xie, Hui-Zhang; Ai, Bao-Quan; Cheng, Xiao-Bo; Liu, Liang-Gang

    2007-07-01

    The population growth of small harmful rats in grassland subjected to environment fluctuation has been modelled in a logistic equation. Two correlated random variables responsible to the fluctuation of the genetic factor and the suppression factor are used. A two-peak structure of the steady probability distribution of rate population is observed in the large fluctuation regime of the genetic factor. With the increase of correlation constant λ, the steady probability distribution can change from two peaks to a single peak. The suppression factor μ and its fluctuation also affect the steady probability distribution and can push it toward a small population.

  20. Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

    2015-01-01

    Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

  1. Demographic Stress and Governance: The Influence of Nigerian Population Growth on the Risk of Civil Conflict

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-06-01

    recruitment of this overpopulated segment by insurgent or terrorist groups. Also examined are the demographic factors of unemployment, urbanization, and...Population Growth, Demographics, and Conflict Overpopulation in various countries has become a serious threat to the health of people and a grave

  2. Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

    2006-01-01

    This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in…

  3. Connecting phenological predictions with population growth rates for mountain pine beetle, an outbreak insect

    Science.gov (United States)

    James A. Powell; Barbara J. Bentz

    2009-01-01

    It is expected that a significant impact of global warming will be disruption of phenology as environmental cues become disassociated from their selective impacts. However there are few, if any, models directly connecting phenology with population growth rates. In this paper we discuss connecting a distributional model describing mountain pine beetle phenology with a...

  4. Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, Robert L.

    2005-01-01

    A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

  5. Female strobili incidence in a Minnesota population of black spruce: heritability and correlation with height growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Dana Nelson; C. A. Mohn

    1989-01-01

    Significant family variation in female strobili incidence, ripeness-to-flower and production were found in a Minnesota black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) population tested at four locations. Heritability estimates indicated that gain in early flowering from selection would be possible. Height growth through age 12 years was positively correlated (genetic and...

  6. Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

    2004-01-01

    Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

  7. Nutritional status and growth of children on macrobiotic diets : a population-based study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dagnelie, P.C.

    1988-01-01

    This thesis reports on the relationship between diet, growth, blood chemistry, psychomotor development, and clinical findings in the Dutch population of children on macrobiotic diets.- The macrobiotic diet mainly consisted of cereals, pulses and vegetables with small additions of seaweeds,

  8. Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reed, T.; Grotan, V.; Jenouvrier, S.; Saether, B.E.; Visser, M.E.

    2013-01-01

    road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by

  9. Effects of population density on the growth and egg-laying capacity ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The effects of the population density of adult African giant land snail, Archachatina marginata on the egg-laying capacity and the growth of the brooders and hatchlings were investigated for 9 months. Ten culture pens were stocked with snails at 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% capacity with each group in 2 replicates.

  10. Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shyu, E.; Caswell, H.

    2014-01-01

    Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way

  11. Biomedical Social Science, Unit VI: Population Growth and Genetic Engineering. Student Text. Revised Version, 1977.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomedical Interdisciplinary Curriculum Project, Berkeley, CA.

    This collection of lessons and class activities covers two major concepts: (1) population growth and (2) genetic engineering. Lessons consist of readings, questions and answers, and problems of projects where appropriate. Issues are posed in as much as possible in a manner intended to cause the student to reach conclusions and values without being…

  12. An accessibility approach to railways and municipal population growth, 1840-1930

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huijg, A.; Koopmans, C.; Rietveld, P.

    2010-01-01

    In the nineteenth century, railway networks strongly improved accessibility. In this paper we examine the impact of accessibility improvements on municipal population growth in the Netherlands between 1840 and 1930, using census data. By mapping a multimodal transport network and calculating the

  13. An accessibility approach to railways and municipal population growth, 1840-1930

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Koopmans, C.C.; Rietveld, P.; Huijg, A.

    2012-01-01

    In the 19th century, railway networks strongly improved accessibility. In this paper we examine the impact of accessibility improvements on municipal population growth in the Netherlands between 1840 and 1930, using census data. By mapping a multimodal transport network and calculating the shortest

  14. Customized versus population-based growth curves: prediction of low body fat percent at term corrected gestational age following preterm birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Tameeka L; Katikaneni, Lakshmi D; Taylor, Sarah N; Korte, Jeffrey E; Ebeling, Myla D; Wagner, Carol L; Newman, Roger B

    2012-07-01

    Compare customized versus population-based growth curves for identification of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and body fat percent (BF%) among preterm infants. Prospective cohort study of 204 preterm infants classified as SGA or appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) by population-based and customized growth curves. BF% was determined by air-displacement plethysmography. Differences between groups were compared using bivariable and multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses. Customized curves reclassified 30% of the preterm infants as SGA. SGA infants identified by customized method only had significantly lower BF% (13.8 ± 6.0) than the AGA (16.2 ± 6.3, p = 0.02) infants and similar to the SGA infants classified by both methods (14.6 ± 6.7, p = 0.51). Customized growth curves were a significant predictor of BF% (p = 0.02), whereas population-based growth curves were not a significant independent predictor of BF% (p = 0.50) at term corrected gestational age. Customized growth potential improves the differentiation of SGA infants and low BF% compared with a standard population-based growth curve among a cohort of preterm infants.

  15. Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGFA gene variation in polycystic ovary syndrome in a Tunisian women population

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    Assila Ben Salem

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS is characterized by the growth of a number of small cysts on the ovaries which leads to sex hormonal imbalance. Women who are affected by this syndrome suffer from irregular menstrual cycles, decline in their fertility, excessive hair growth, obesity, acne and most importantly cardiac function problems. The vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF plays a pivotal role in tissue vascularization in general and in the pathogenesis of many diseases. The PCOS was found to be associated with high expression levels of VEGF. In women who undergo assisted reproductive procedures (ART, VEGF was found to be a key mediator of other factors to control ovary angiogenesis. Here, we set out to examine the association of VEGFA gene polymorphism with PCOS and its components in a population of Tunisia women to enhance our understanding of the genetic background leading angiogenesis and vascularization abnormalities in PCOS. Methods The association of VEGFA gene with PCOS and its components was examined in a cohort of 268 women from Tunisia involving 118 PCOS patients and 150 controls. VEGFA gene variations were assessed through the analysis of the following SNPs rs699947 (A/C, rs833061 (C/T, rs1570360 (G/A, rs833068 (G/A, rs3025020 (C/T, and rs3025039 (C/T. The linkage disequilibrium between SNPs was assessed using HAPLOVIEW software while combination of SNPs into haplotypes in the population and the reconstruction of the cladogram were carried-out by PHASE and ARLEQUIN programs, respectively. Genetic association and genotype-phenotype correlations were calculated by logistic regression and non-parametric tests (Kruskall-Wallis and Mann–Whitney tests, respectively, using StatView program. Results We observed 10 haplotypes in our studied cohort whereH1 (ACGG, H2 (ACAG, H7 (CTGG and H8 (CTGA were the most frequent. We observed the association of the genotype CT of the SNP rs30225039 with PCOS phenotype (P = 0

  16. Growth Indicators of a 48-Clone Sugar Cane Population (Saccharum spp. with Forage Potential

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    Yoslen Fernández Gálvez

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to determine growth indicators in a 48-clone sugar cane population, with promising phenotypical features for forage production. The following indicators were assessed: leaf area (A, leaf area index (LA1; leaf area ratio (LAR; specific leaf area (SLA; leaf weight ratio (LWR; crop growth rate (CGR; net assimilation rate (NAR; relative growth rate in weight (RGR; biomass production speed (G; leaf area duration (LAD; and biomass duration (Z, monthly (187 - 370 days. The minimum, the mean, the maximum values, and the population variance were determined for all cutting ages and the variables assessed. The results achieved have provided quantitative values that can be used as reference for selection and assessment of forage genotypes for ruminant nutrition.

  17. Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

    2016-12-13

    Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

  18. The effects of Grobiotic-P on growth performance, nutrient digestibilities, and cecal microbial populations in young chicks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biggs, P; Parsons, C M

    2008-09-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate the effects of Grobiotic-P (GB), a prebiotic-type product that contains dairy and yeast fractions and dried fermentation extracts, on growth performance and nutrient digestibility at 4 and 21 d of age and cecal populations of Bifidobacterium, Lactobacillus, Escherichia coli, and Clostridium perfringens at 21 d of age. Two experiments were conducted using male New Hampshire x Columbian chicks. The first experiment evaluated GB at 2, 4, and 6% in a corn-soybean meal diet and compared these dietary treatments to a diet containing no GB (negative control) and a diet containing an antibiotic growth promoter (positive control), bacitracin methylene disalicylate. The second experiment used semi-purified dextrose-casein and dextrose-isolated soy protein diets to examine the effects of a 5% GB addition. In the first experiment, supplementing GB at 2, 4, and 6% in a corn-soybean meal diet had no effect on weight gain (P > 0.05). Feed efficiency and ME(n) were decreased (P supplemented to chicks fed a dextrose-casein diet, and the cecal populations of E. coli and C. perfringens were reduced (P supplemented to chicks fed a dextrose-isolated soy protein diet. The results of this study indicate that feeding GB to chicks may promote the growth of beneficial bifidobacteria while reducing the growth of E. coli and C. perfringens in the ceca.

  19. JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

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    Wei-Bin ZHANG

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

  20. Long-term growth performance and productivity of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L. populations

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    Anna Maria Hebda

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The phenotypic differentiation of 16 provenances of Scots pine originating from a wide variety of habitats that range from lowland to southern highland locations in Poland was assessed during 47 years of their growth and development in the Carpathian Mountains. The traits, including height, diameter at breast height, stem straightness, and crown width, were used to evaluate the differentiation of the provenances in their juvenile period and at maturity and were examined for patterns of local adaptation. The populations from northern Poland were characterized by the best growth and productivity, whereas provenances from central Poland had the best stem quality. There were some changes in growth between provenances observed during the experiment, but the stand volume (m3/ha in juvenile trees was closely correlated with that in mature trees (r = 0.979. There was a positive relationship between the productivity and the environmental conditions of the geographical origin of provenances with increasing values for the trees’ productivity from south to north. Additionally, the elevation above sea level of the original populations was inversely correlated with the growth achieved by the progeny. In general, most populations from the species distribution range in Poland tested in the severe climate conditions of the Carpathian Mountains showed good growth performance under that environment, characterized by low temperatures and short growing periods. Provenances from climatic zones outside mountain regions demonstrated great growth and productivity, which proved to be the most important for competitively outperforming the local populations. Our study demonstrates good adaptive potential of the tested provenances, as selection will favor fast-growing genotypes under the predicted environmental change scenario.

  1. Macrophage Ablation Reduces M2-Like Populations and Jeopardizes Tumor Growth in a MAFIA-Based Glioma Model12

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrusiewicz, Konrad; Hossain, Mohammad B.; Cortes-Santiago, Nahir; Fan, Xuejun; Kaminska, Bozena; Marini, Frank C.; Fueyo, Juan; Gomez-Manzano, Candelaria

    2015-01-01

    Monocytes/macrophages are an influential component of the glioma microenvironment. However, understanding their diversity and plasticity constitute one of the most challenging areas of research due to the paucity of models to study these cells' inherent complexity. Herein, we analyzed the role of monocytes/macrophages in glioma growth by using a transgenic model that allows for conditional ablation of this cell population. We modeled glioma using intracranial GL261-bearing CSF-1R–GFP+ macrophage Fas-induced apoptosis (MAFIA) transgenic mice. Conditional macrophage ablation was achieved by exposure to the dimerizer AP20187. Double immunofluorescence was used to characterize M1- and M2-like monocytes/macrophages during tumor growth and after conditional ablation. During glioma growth, the monocyte/macrophage population consisted predominantly of M2 macrophages. Conditional temporal depletion of macrophages reduced the number of GFP+ cells, targeting mainly the repopulation of M2-polarized cells, and altered the appearance of M1-like monocytes/macrophages, which suggested a shift in the M1/M2 macrophage balance. Of interest, compared with control-treated mice, macrophage-depleted mice had a lower tumor mitotic index, microvascular density, and reduced tumor growth. These results demonstrated the possibility of studying in vivo the role and phenotype of macrophages in gliomas and suggested that transitory depletion of CSF-1R+ population influences the reconstitutive phenotypic pool of these cells, ultimately suppressing tumor growth. The MAFIA model provides a much needed advance in defining the role of macrophages in gliomas. PMID:25925380

  2. Macrophage Ablation Reduces M2-Like Populations and Jeopardizes Tumor Growth in a MAFIA-Based Glioma Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrusiewicz, Konrad; Hossain, Mohammad B; Cortes-Santiago, Nahir; Fan, Xuejun; Kaminska, Bozena; Marini, Frank C; Fueyo, Juan; Gomez-Manzano, Candelaria

    2015-04-01

    Monocytes/macrophages are an influential component of the glioma microenvironment. However, understanding their diversity and plasticity constitute one of the most challenging areas of research due to the paucity of models to study these cells' inherent complexity. Herein, we analyzed the role of monocytes/macrophages in glioma growth by using a transgenic model that allows for conditional ablation of this cell population. We modeled glioma using intracranial GL261-bearing CSF-1R-GFP(+) macrophage Fas-induced apoptosis (MAFIA) transgenic mice. Conditional macrophage ablation was achieved by exposure to the dimerizer AP20187. Double immunofluorescence was used to characterize M1- and M2-like monocytes/macrophages during tumor growth and after conditional ablation. During glioma growth, the monocyte/macrophage population consisted predominantly of M2 macrophages. Conditional temporal depletion of macrophages reduced the number of GFP(+) cells, targeting mainly the repopulation of M2-polarized cells, and altered the appearance of M1-like monocytes/macrophages, which suggested a shift in the M1/M2 macrophage balance. Of interest, compared with control-treated mice, macrophage-depleted mice had a lower tumor mitotic index, microvascular density, and reduced tumor growth. These results demonstrated the possibility of studying in vivo the role and phenotype of macrophages in gliomas and suggested that transitory depletion of CSF-1R(+) population influences the reconstitutive phenotypic pool of these cells, ultimately suppressing tumor growth. The MAFIA model provides a much needed advance in defining the role of macrophages in gliomas. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Macrophage Ablation Reduces M2-Like Populations and Jeopardizes Tumor Growth in a MAFIA-Based Glioma Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Konrad Gabrusiewicz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Monocytes/macrophages are an influential component of the glioma microenvironment. However, understanding their diversity and plasticity constitute one of the most challenging areas of research due to the paucity of models to study these cells' inherent complexity. Herein, we analyzed the role of monocytes/macrophages in glioma growth by using a transgenic model that allows for conditional ablation of this cell population. We modeled glioma using intracranial GL261-bearing CSF-1R–GFP+ macrophage Fas-induced apoptosis (MAFIA transgenic mice. Conditional macrophage ablation was achieved by exposure to the dimerizer AP20187. Double immunofluorescence was used to characterize M1- and M2-like monocytes/macrophages during tumor growth and after conditional ablation. During glioma growth, the monocyte/macrophage population consisted predominantly of M2 macrophages. Conditional temporal depletion of macrophages reduced the number of GFP+ cells, targeting mainly the repopulation of M2-polarized cells, and altered the appearance of M1-like monocytes/macrophages, which suggested a shift in the M1/M2 macrophage balance. Of interest, compared with control-treated mice, macrophage-depleted mice had a lower tumor mitotic index, microvascular density, and reduced tumor growth. These results demonstrated the possibility of studying in vivo the role and phenotype of macrophages in gliomas and suggested that transitory depletion of CSF-1R+ population influences the reconstitutive phenotypic pool of these cells, ultimately suppressing tumor growth. The MAFIA model provides a much needed advance in defining the role of macrophages in gliomas.

  4. Growth rate fitting using the von Bertalanffy model: analysis of natural populations of Drepanotrema spp. snails (Gastropoda: Planorbidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumi, Alejandra; Gregoric, Diego E Gutiérrez; Roche, M Andrea

    2007-06-01

    The genus Drepanotrema includes six species in Argentina. The life cycle in natural systems of Drepanotrema depressissimum, and D. lucidum has been little studied, except for some casual observations. The aim of this study is to analyze main population trends (age structures, recruitment periods, life span and curves of individual growth) in Paiva pond, Argentina. We explored growth model fitting and comparison methodologies between species and environments in Paiva pond and Isla Martin Garcia (IMG), to determine interspecific patterns. Theoretical curves of von Bertalanffy's model for each population were contrasted with samplings using the chi2 test. Expected sizes were transformed into a percentage of maximum size and cohorts started from zero time, which allowed them to be independent of the real or estimated starting date and a comparison was possible. A similar time scale was used, because the k values proved to be sensitive to time scale. Maximum size reached by D. lucidum was 6.9 mm and by D. depressissimum 9.38 mm. Growth rates (k) fluctuated from 1.302 to 1.368 in the first and 1.339 to 1.509 in the second species. No statistically significant differences were found in growth curves among species inhabiting the Paiva pond and in the different IMG water bodies independent of the beginning of each cohort and maximum size. In general, no winter cohorts were observed, except in one population of D. kermatoides (IMG). Comparing circannual and biannual growth rhythms most of the species reached 60 % of their development during their first year, and 85 % or more during their second year.

  5. Effects of growth curve plasticity on size-structured population dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Lai; Lin, Zhigui; Pedersen, Michael

    2011-01-01

    and reproduction. Moreover, the portion of surplus energy for reproduction is size-dependent and increases monotonically with size. Using the newly developed parameter continuation, we demonstrate their disparate effects on population dynamics. Results show that the size-dependent mechanism of energy allocation......The physiological-structured population models assume that a fixed fraction of energy intake is utilized for individual growth and maintenance while the remaining for adult fertility. The assumption results in two concerns: energy loss for juveniles and a reproduction dilemma for adults....... The dilemma results from the possibility that adults have to breed even if metabolic costs fail to be covered.We consider a size-structured population model, where standard metabolism is given top priority for utilizing energy intake and the surplus energy, if there is any, is distributed to individual growth...

  6. Effect of Cadmium on the population growth of the marine diatom Chaetoceros gracilis Schutt

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    Giovana Vera

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Phytoplankton constitutes the base of the trophic webs in the marine environment, so it is important to know the possible effects of pollutants on the algal populations. In the present paper the effect of cadmium on the population growth of the diatom Chaetoceros gracilis was assessed. The microalgae were cultured in the a modified “f/2” Guillard medium, and were exposed to different concentrations of cadmium between 50 and 100000 µg.–1, which produced an inhibitory effect from 20% to 99% on the population growth of Chaetoceros gracilis. Based on the dose (cadmium-response (inhibition relationship, a mean effective concentration (EC50% equal to 591 µg.L–1 of cadmium was obtained.

  7. Host preference, population growth and injuries assessment of Polyphagotarsonemus latus (banks) (ACARI: Tarsonemidae) on Capsicum annuum L. Genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breda, M O; de Oliveira, J V; Esteves Filho, A B; Barbosa, D R S; de Santana, M F

    2016-10-01

    Despite the continued efforts on the search for different genotypes, Capsicum annuum (L.) is quite susceptible to attack by pest arthropods, especially the broad mite Polyphagotarsonemus latus Banks. Thus, the host preference, population growth and the injuries assessment of P. latus was studied on six C. annuum genotypes used in Brazil (Atlantis, California Wonder, Impact, Palloma, Rubia and Tendence). Host preference was accessed in choice tests, pairing the several genotypes, and the population growth was observed through non-choice tests in laboratory. The injuries assessments were evaluated in the greenhouse, comparing the injury level among the six genotypes. The results indicate that California Wonder and Palloma genotypes were more preferred by P. latus, and Impact and Tendence were less preferred. P. latus presented positive population growth rates (ri) on all the genotypes, however, Palloma and California Wonder showed the highest values of population growth rate (ri = 0.344 and ri = 0.340, respectively), while Impact had the lowest value (ri = 0.281). All the evaluated C. annuum genotypes showed low tolerance to P. latus and exhibited several injuries, but there was no statistical difference between them. California Wonder had the highest average number of mites/leaf (57.15), while Impact and Tendence obtained the lowest values (36.67 and 35.12, respectively) at the end of the evaluation period. The total average of injuries notes at the end of the bioassay did not differ between the genotypes. The number of mites/leaf was growing for the injury scale to the note 3.0, but when the injury scale approached the note 4.0, there was observed a decrease in the number of mites/leaf for all the genotypes.

  8. Modeling the Pre-Industrial Roots of Modern Super-Exponential Population Growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stutz, Aaron Jonas

    2014-01-01

    To Malthus, rapid human population growth—so evident in 18th Century Europe—was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography—especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

  9. Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adepoju, A

    1976-02-01

    The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

  10. Somatic growth in 94 single ventricle children -- comparing systemic right and left ventricle patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hessel, Trine witzner; Greisen, Gorm; Idorn, Lars

    2013-01-01

    We sought to compare and assess growth in single ventricle children with a systemic right or left ventricle in five time periods: at birth, before neonatal surgery, before the Glenn anastomosis and finally before and after the Fontan operation to 11 years of age.......We sought to compare and assess growth in single ventricle children with a systemic right or left ventricle in five time periods: at birth, before neonatal surgery, before the Glenn anastomosis and finally before and after the Fontan operation to 11 years of age....

  11. EVALUATION COMPREHENSION OF THE CHILDREN AND ADOLESCENT PHYSICAL GROWTH IN THE COURSE OF THE POPULATION RESEARCH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V.R. Kuchma

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The urgency of the given research is intimately related to the necessity to choose the comprehension approaches to the evaluation of the children's physical growth, which may be applied in monitoring of the children collectives health status, planning and performance of the preventive and sanitary events at the group and population levels. The authors studied the socially different children collectives and examined 3,600 children and adolescents. They showed that the use of the regional modified regression scales, complex schemes and centile tables, i.e. regional standards based approaches to the evaluation of the physical growth would be comprehensive for the physical growth features of the children collectives subject to ethnic, climate and geographic as well as social and economic differences.Key words: physical growth, evaluation approaches, children, adolescents.

  12. Effects of climate change on long-term population growth of pronghorn in an arid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gedir, Jay V.; Cain, James W.; Harris, Grant; Turnbull, Trey T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate often drives ungulate population dynamics, and as climates change, some areas may become unsuitable for species persistence. Unraveling the relationships between climate and population dynamics, and projecting them across time, advances ecological understanding that informs and steers sustainable conservation for species. Using pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) as an ecological model, we used a Bayesian approach to analyze long-term population, precipitation, and temperature data from 18 populations in the southwestern United States. We determined which long-term (12 and 24 months) or short-term (gestation trimester and lactation period) climatic conditions best predicted annual rate of population growth (λ). We used these predictions to project population trends through 2090. Projections incorporated downscaled climatic data matched to pronghorn range for each population, given a high and a lower atmospheric CO2 concentration scenario. Since the 1990s, 15 of the pronghorn populations declined in abundance. Sixteen populations demonstrated a significant relationship between precipitation and λ, and in 13 of these, temperature was also significant. Precipitation predictors of λ were highly seasonal, with lactation being the most important period, followed by early and late gestation. The influence of temperature on λ was less seasonal than precipitation, and lacked a clear temporal pattern. The climatic projections indicated that all of these pronghorn populations would experience increased temperatures, while the direction and magnitude of precipitation had high population-specific variation. Models predicted that nine populations would be extirpated or approaching extirpation by 2090. Results were consistent across both atmospheric CO2 concentration scenarios, indicating robustness of trends irrespective of climatic severity. In the southwestern United States, the climate underpinning pronghorn populations is shifting, making conditions increasingly

  13. Postdischarge growth and development in a predominantly Hispanic, very low birth weight population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powers, George C; Ramamurthy, Rajam; Schoolfield, John; Matula, Kathleen

    2008-12-01

    The goals were to assess postdischarge growth and developmental progress of very low birth weight (birth weight: population and to identify predictors for neurodevelopmental impairment at 3 years of age. A cohort of 135 very low birth weight infants (gestational age: 23 to 35 weeks) were monitored to 3 years of age. Maternal and neonatal characteristics, anthropometric z scores, and developmental performance (using corrected age until 24 months) were analyzed collectively and according to gestational age groups. Specific criteria for failure to thrive and microcephaly were used. A characteristic pattern of poor weight gain in the first 12 months was followed by accelerated weight gain starting at 18 months, whereas head growth decreased at 18 months, with recovery beginning at 30 months of age. Infants born at gestational age of growth-impaired at 3 years of age, whereas infants born at gestational age of >or=27 weeks achieved catch-up growth by 30 months of age. Mean developmental scores also decreased in infancy, with improvements in motor development emerging at 18 months and cognitive skills at 30 months. Growth z scores, particularly for head growth, correlated with developmental scores. Infants born at gestational age of growth patterns that coincided with developmental progress in the first 3 years of life. Birth at gestational age of

  14. Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

    2017-04-01

    Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

  15. Individual growth and reproductive behavior in a newly established population of northern snakehead (Channa argus), Potomac River, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Andrew M. Gascho; Lapointe, Nicolas W. R.; Angermeier, Paul L.

    2010-01-01

    Northern snakehead (Channa argus) were first found in the Potomac River in 2004. In 2007, we documented feeding and reproductive behavior to better understand how this species is performing in this novel environment. From April to October, we used electrofishing surveys to collect data on growth, condition, and gonad weight of adult fish. Growth rates of young were measured on a daily basis for several weeks. Mean length-at-age for Potomac River northern snakehead was lower than for fish from China, Russia, and Uzbekistan. Fish condition was above average during spring and fall, but below average in summer. Below-average condition corresponded to periods of high spawning activity. Gonadosomatic index indicated that females began spawning at the end of April and continued through August. Peak spawning occurred at the beginning of June when average temperatures reached 26°C. Larval fish growth rate, after the transition to exogenous feeding, was 2.3 (SD ± 0.7) mm (total length, TL) per day. Although Potomac River northern snakehead exhibited lower overall growth rates when compared to other populations, these fish demonstrated plasticity in timing of reproduction and rapid larval growth rates. Such life history characteristics likely contribute to the success of northern snakehead in its new environment and limit managers’ options for significant control of its invasion.

  16. Association between pregnancy complications and small-for-gestational-age birth weight defined by customized fetal growth standard versus a population-based standard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odibo, Anthony O; Francis, Andre; Cahill, Alison G; Macones, George A; Crane, James P; Gardosi, Jason

    2011-03-01

    To derive coefficients for developing a customized growth chart for a Mid-Western US population, and to estimate the association between pregnancy outcomes and smallness for gestational age (SGA) defined by the customized growth chart compared with a population-based growth chart for the USA. A retrospective cohort study of an ultrasound database using 54,433 pregnancies meeting inclusion criteria was conducted. Coefficients for customized centiles were derived using 42,277 pregnancies and compared with those obtained from other populations. Two adverse outcome indicators were defined (greater than 7 day stay in the neonatal unit and stillbirth [SB]), and the risk for each outcome was calculated for the groups of pregnancies defined as SGA by the population standard and SGA by the customized standard using 12,456 pregnancies for the validation sample. The growth potential expressed as weight at 40 weeks in this population was 3524 g (standard error: 402 g). In the validation population, 4055 cases of SGA were identified using both population and customized standards. The cases additionally identified as SGA by the customized method had a significantly increased risk of each of the adverse outcome categories. The sensitivity and specificity of those identified as SGA by customized method only for detecting pregnancies at risk for SB was 32.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.0-38.8%) and 95.1% (95% CI: 94.7-95.0%) versus 0.8% (95% CI 0.1-2.7%) and 98.0% (95% CI 97.8-98.2%)for those identified by only the population-based method, respectively. SGA defined by customized growth potential is able to identify substantially more pregnancies at a risk for adverse outcome than the currently used national standard for fetal growth.

  17. Type 2 Diabetes Risk Alleles Demonstrate Extreme Directional Differentiation among Human Populations, Compared to Other Diseases

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rong; Corona, Erik; Sikora, Martin; Dudley, Joel T.; Morgan, Alex A.; Moreno-Estrada, Andres; Nilsen, Geoffrey B.; Ruau, David; Lincoln, Stephen E.; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Butte, Atul J.

    2012-01-01

    Many disease-susceptible SNPs exhibit significant disparity in ancestral and derived allele frequencies across worldwide populations. While previous studies have examined population differentiation of alleles at specific SNPs, global ethnic patterns of ensembles of disease risk alleles across human diseases are unexamined. To examine these patterns, we manually curated ethnic disease association data from 5,065 papers on human genetic studies representing 1,495 diseases, recording the precise risk alleles and their measured population frequencies and estimated effect sizes. We systematically compared the population frequencies of cross-ethnic risk alleles for each disease across 1,397 individuals from 11 HapMap populations, 1,064 individuals from 53 HGDP populations, and 49 individuals with whole-genome sequences from 10 populations. Type 2 diabetes (T2D) demonstrated extreme directional differentiation of risk allele frequencies across human populations, compared with null distributions of European-frequency matched control genomic alleles and risk alleles for other diseases. Most T2D risk alleles share a consistent pattern of decreasing frequencies along human migration into East Asia. Furthermore, we show that these patterns contribute to disparities in predicted genetic risk across 1,397 HapMap individuals, T2D genetic risk being consistently higher for individuals in the African populations and lower in the Asian populations, irrespective of the ethnicity considered in the initial discovery of risk alleles. We observed a similar pattern in the distribution of T2D Genetic Risk Scores, which are associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program cohort, for the same individuals. This disparity may be attributable to the promotion of energy storage and usage appropriate to environments and inconsistent energy intake. Our results indicate that the differential frequencies of T2D risk alleles may contribute to the observed

  18. Coupling SLEUTH model and population projection to simulate urban growth of the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Y.; Zhao, S.

    2015-12-01

    This study used two modelling approaches to predict future urban landscapes for the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. In the first approach, we implemented traditional SLEUTH urban simulation model by using publicly available and locally-developed land cover and transportation data. Historical land cover data from 1992, 2001, 2006, and 2011 were used to calibrate the SLEUTH model and predict urban growth from 2011 to 2070. The SLEUTH model achieved 94.8% overall accuracy for validation year 2014. For the second modelling approach, we used a future population projection for 2050, aided by a strong population-imperviousness statistical relationship (R2 ~ 0.95), to predict impervious surface density for each county. These population-predicted impervious surface density values were compared to SLEUTH model output, at the county spatial scale. R2 of 0.84 suggested general agreement of overall pattern, although SLEUTH generated higher impervious surface density values for 36 out of 40 counties. For population-predicted impervious surface density, we further developed a lookup table approach to integrate SLEUTH output and generated a spatially explicit urban map for 2050. This lookup table approach has high potential to integrate population-predicted and SLEUTH-predicted urban landscape, especially when future population can be predicted with reasonable accuracy.

  19. Development and population growth of Hydra viridissima Pallas, 1766 (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa in the laboratory

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    FC. Massaro

    Full Text Available Hydras, the most representative freshwater Cnidaria, are of common occurrence in bodies of water in every continent except Antarctica. This study was planned with the aim of maintaining a population of Hydra viridissima in laboratory culture to enable the determination of the individual and population growth-rates of this species, as well as its population doubling time and generation time, with a view to employing these common animals as test-organisms in ecotoxicological assays. The organisms were maintained in reconstituted water at 20 ± 2 °C, illuminated at 800 lux with a photoperiod of 12 hours light: 12 hours dark, and were fed on neonates of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii (3 or 4 neonates per hydra, 3 times a week. The individual growth-rate (k of the species was 0.43, the maximum length of the column 2.53 mm and the generation time 6.6 ± 1.5 days on average. The hydra population showed an intrinsic growth-rate (r of 0.0468, according to the fitted curve, and a doubling time of 14.8 ± 2.63 days. Hydra viridissima is easy to grow in the laboratory and performs well in the conditions used in this study. It is thus a promising candidate test-organism for ecotoxicological studies.

  20. Trans-generational influences of sulfamethoxazole on lifespan, reproduction and population growth of Caenorhabditis elegans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Zhenyang; Sun, Guohua; Liu, Yanjun; Yin, Daqiang; Zhang, Jing

    2017-01-01

    Trans-generational effects are increasingly used to indicate long-term influences of environmental pollutants. However, such studies can be complex and yield inconclusive results. In this study, the trans-generational effects of sulfamethoxazole (SMX) on Caenorhabditis elegans on lifespan, reproduction and population growth were tested for 7 consecutive generations, which included gestating generation (F0), embryo-exposed generation (F1), germline-exposed generation (F2), the first non-exposed generation (F3) and the three following generations (F4-F6). Results showed that lifespan was significantly affected by embryo exposure (F1) at 400µm SMX with a value as low as 47% of the control. The reproduction (a total brood size as 49% of the control) and population growth (81% of the control) were significantly affected in germline exposure (F2). Lifespan and reproduction were severely inhibited in non-exposed generations, confirming the real trans-generational effects. Notably, initial reproduction and reproduction duration showed opposite generation-related changes, indicating their interplay in the overall brood size. The population growth rate was well correlated with median lethal time, brood size and initial reproduction, which indicated that the population would increase when the nematodes lived longer and reproduced more offspring within shorter duration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Jose Struchiner

    Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  2. Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Struchiner, Claudio Jose; Rocklöv, Joacim; Wilder-Smith, Annelies; Massad, Eduardo

    2015-01-01

    In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR) of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature) together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83). Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

  3. Effects of Plant Population and Tiller Number on the Growth and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The plant populations were 166,000 250,000 and 500,000 plants/ha and tiller numbers of one, three and five were maintained and compared to a control where tiller production was not regulated. Grain yield was significantly (p<0.05) reduced at low and increased at high population densities. Dry matter was however, ...

  4. Population growth and the environment: Can we eat the cake and have it?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shmuel Amir

    1999-01-01

    Full Text Available Continuous population growth and the concomitant maintenance of a growth sustaining environment are not in conflict only if the rates of both economic and biological processes are slowed down steadily. For this to happen, individual and social impatience-lowering adaptations should be adopted, and the capital of the system, both economic and natural, has to be redistributed among the system interacting components to result in an ever more complex organizational web. In addition, these factors have to corroborate with a third element, the incorporation of an arsenal of varied technological innovations that improves the use of existing stocks.

  5. Mitochondrial DNA Analyses Indicate High Diversity, Expansive Population Growth and High Genetic Connectivity of Vent Copepods (Dirivultidae) across Different Oceans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gollner, Sabine; Stuckas, Heiko; Kihara, Terue C; Laurent, Stefan; Kodami, Sahar; Martinez Arbizu, Pedro

    2016-01-01

    Communities in spatially fragmented deep-sea hydrothermal vents rich in polymetallic sulfides could soon face major disturbance events due to deep-sea mineral mining, such that unraveling patterns of gene flow between hydrothermal vent populations will be an important step in the development of conservation policies. Indeed, the time required by deep-sea populations to recover following habitat perturbations depends both on the direction of gene flow and the number of migrants available for re-colonization after disturbance. In this study we compare nine dirivultid copepod species across various geological settings. We analyze partial nucleotide sequences of the mtCOI gene and use divergence estimates (FST) and haplotype networks to infer intraspecific population connectivity between vent sites. Furthermore, we evaluate contrasting scenarios of demographic population expansion/decline versus constant population size (using, for example, Tajima's D). Our results indicate high diversity, population expansion and high connectivity of all copepod populations in all oceans. For example, haplotype diversity values range from 0.89 to 1 and FST values range from 0.001 to 0.11 for Stygiopontius species from the Central Indian Ridge, Mid Atlantic Ridge, East Pacific Rise, and Eastern Lau Spreading Center. We suggest that great abundance and high site occupancy by these species favor high genetic diversity. Two scenarios both showed similarly high connectivity: fast spreading centers with little distance between vent fields and slow spreading centers with greater distance between fields. This unexpected result may be due to some distinct frequency of natural disturbance events, or to aspects of individual life histories that affect realized rates of dispersal. However, our statistical performance analyses showed that at least 100 genomic regions should be sequenced to ensure accurate estimates of migration rate. Our demography parameters demonstrate that dirivultid

  6. Professional Growth Determinants--Comparing Bayesian and Linear Approaches to Classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nokelainen, Petri; Ruohotie, Pekka; Tirri, Henry

    Bayesian and classical approaches to classification of vocational data were compared using an educational data set from a longitudinal study of professional growth and development in organizations (P. Ruohotie et al., 1994). Data were from 2,430 workers in companies in Finland who completed a questionnaire with behavior and background statements.…

  7. Comparing immune-tumor growth models with drug therapy using optimal control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martins, Marisa C.; Rocha, Ana Maria A. C.; Costa, M. Fernanda P.; Fernandes, Edite M. G. P.

    2016-06-01

    In this paper we compare the dynamics of three tumor growth models that include an immune system and a drug administration therapy using optimal control. The objective is to minimize a combined function of the total of tumor cells over time and a chemotherapeutic drug administration.

  8. Beaver-mediated methane emission: The effects of population growth in Eurasia and the Americas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whitfield, Colin J; Baulch, Helen M; Chun, Kwok P; Westbrook, Cherie J

    2015-02-01

    Globally, greenhouse gas budgets are dominated by natural sources, and aquatic ecosystems are a prominent source of methane (CH(4)) to the atmosphere. Beaver (Castor canadensis and Castor fiber) populations have experienced human-driven change, and CH(4) emissions associated with their habitat remain uncertain. This study reports the effect of near extinction and recovery of beavers globally on aquatic CH4 emissions and habitat. Resurgence of native beaver populations and their introduction in other regions accounts for emission of 0.18-0.80 Tg CH(4) year(-1) (year 2000). This flux is approximately 200 times larger than emissions from the same systems (ponds and flowing waters that became ponds) circa 1900. Beaver population recovery was estimated to have led to the creation of 9500-42 000 km(2) of ponded water, and increased riparian interface length of >200 000 km. Continued range expansion and population growth in South America and Europe could further increase CH(4) emissions.

  9. Population genetic structure of economically important Tortricidae (Lepidoptera) in South Africa: a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Timm, A E; Geertsema, H; Warnich, L

    2010-08-01

    Comparative studies of the population genetic structures of agricultural pests can elucidate the factors by which their population levels are affected, which is useful for designing pest management programs. This approach was used to provide insight into the six Tortricidae of major economic importance in South Africa. The population genetic structure of the carnation worm E. acerbella and the false codling moth T. leucotreta, analyzed using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) analysis, is presented here for the first time. These results were compared with those obtained previously for the codling moth Cydia pomonella, the oriental fruit moth Grapholita molesta, the litchi moth Cryptophlebia peltastica and the macadamia nut borer T. batrachopa. Locally adapted populations were detected over local geographic areas for all species. No significant differences were found among population genetic structures as result of population history (whether native or introduced) although host range (whether oligophagous or polyphagous) had a small but significant effect. It is concluded that factors such as dispersal ability and agricultural practices have the most important effects on genetically structuring populations of the economically important Tortricidae in South Africa.

  10. Rapid population growth. Effects on the social infrastructures of southern Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, J D

    1995-01-01

    Southern Africa's high rate of population growth and widespread poverty have serious implications for the region's social infrastructure. Large increases in the school-age population have undermined efforts to improve the quality of education since all resources are directed toward expansion of availability. To achieve a teacher-pupil ratio of 1:40 at the primary level and 1:35 at the secondary level, an estimated additional 50,000 classrooms would be required. Also jeopardized by high fertility is access to health services, safe water, and sanitation. In Mozambique, for example, where only 30% of the population has access to health services, the under-five years mortality rate is 297/1000 live births and the physician-population ratio is 1:37,970. Substandard housing, homelessness, congestion, deteriorating public services, pollution, and crime dominate urban areas. The single most effective intervention to reduce population growth in Southern Africa is female education. Women without a secondary education bear an average of seven children; if 40% of women attend secondary school, this drops to three children. Thus, governments must make gender equality a central focus of development planning and ensure that women are participants in this process. Property and inheritance laws that serve to increase the economic need for early marriage should be eliminated. Public health programs, including family planning, must be expanded. Finally, women's organizations should be strengthened and urged to foster female empowerment.

  11. Population Growth of Pratylenchus penetrans on Winter Cover Crops Grown in the Pacific Northwest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forge, T A; Ingham, R E; Kaufman, D; Pinkerton, J N

    2000-03-01

    Population growth of Pratylenchus penetrans on 13 fall and winter cover crops was studied in the greenhouse and field. All crops except oat cv. Saia supported population growth of P. penetrans in greenhouse experiments, although the response of P. penetrans to oat cv. Saia varied considerably between experiments. The mean ratio of the final population density/initial population density (Pf/Pi) after 16 weeks for P. penetrans added to a greenhouse soil mix was 0.09, whereas Pf/Pi values after 10 weeks for two experiments with naturally infested soil were 0.95 and 2.3. Although P. penetrans increased on sudangrass cv. Trudan 8 and sudangrass x sorghum hybrid cv. SS 222, subsequent incorporation of sudangrass vegetation into soil reduced P. penetrans populations to preplant levels. Field experiments were inconclusive but suggested that oat cv. Saia or rye cv. Wheeler may be better choices for winter cover than weed-contaminated fallow or other crops on P. penetrans-infested sites in the Pacific Northwest.

  12. [Comparative analysis of growth of edible mussel Mytilus edulis from different White Sea regions].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ozerniuk, N D; Zotin, A A

    2006-01-01

    Growth properties were studied in edible mussel Mytilus edulis from different biotopes of the Kandalaksha Bay in the White Sea. Growth curves of the mussel shell were approximated by the von Bertalanffy equation. The highest growth rate, primarily dependent on hydrological conditions, was observed in mussels from the Chupa Bay (Levin Navolok fishery), while the lowest rate was observed in mussels from the Umba region (Turn Cape, Murmansk Region). Allometric relationships of the mussel shell were determined. Analysis of the relationship between the maximum width/convexity and their length demonstrated that this relationship is described by a single allometric equation for mussels from the Umba region, which indicates the homogeneity of this population. For mussels from the Chupa Bay, this relationship cannot be described by a single equation, which points to the population heterogeneity. For 90% mussels from this region, the shell width/convexity ratio ranged from 0.5 to 0.9; while for the remaining 10%, it ranged from 0.9 to 1.15.

  13. The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

    2005-01-01

    Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

  14. Childhood Asthma Utilization Rates in a Nonsmoking Population of Utah Compared to State and National Rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gren, Lisa H.; Taylor, Brooke; Lyon, Joseph L.

    2011-01-01

    Risk factors, such as parental smoking, are commonly associated with increased asthma symptoms and hospitalizations of children. Deseret Mutual Benefits Administrators (DMBA) is the health insurer for employees of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints and their families. Due to religious proscription, employees abstain from alcohol and tobacco use, creating a cohort of children not exposed to parental smoking. Calculation of hospitalization rates for DMBA, Utah, and the US were made in children to compare rates between a nonsmoking population and general populations. Compared to DMBA, rate ratios for asthma hospitalization and emergency department asthma visits were higher for the US and Utah. The incidence of hospital outpatient department and physician office visits was significantly greater for the US population compared to the DMBA. This study demonstrates a decreased need for health services used by children not exposed to second-hand smoke. PMID:22389787

  15. [Mental health of Polish immigrants compared to that of the Polish and German populations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morawa, Eva; Senf, Wolfgang; Erim, Yesim

    2013-01-01

    This survey examines the mental health of immigrants of Polish origin compared to samples from the Polish and German populations. In a sample of 513 subjects (261 persons with Polish migration background and 252 autochthone Poles) depression (BDI), anxiety (BAI), and somatic complaints (GBB-24) were measured. Immigrants of Polish origin showed a significantly higher level of anxiety as well as somatic complaints but only a tendency toward higher depressiveness than the German normvalue, but not than that of the native Poles. Female immigrants showed an overall higher number of symptoms in the three domains in question compared to German women and - except for depressiveness - also compared to male immigrants. Persons with a Polish migration background present levels of mental distress higher than the general German population, but similar to the population of their country of origin. Further research is needed to clarify the special structure of the mental morbidity in Polish immigrants.

  16. Simultaneous inference of selection and population growth from patterns of variation in the human genome

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Williamson, Scott H.; Hernandez, Ryan; Fledel-Alon, Adi

    2005-01-01

    Natural selection and demographic forces can have similar effects on patterns of DNA polymorphism. Therefore, to infer selection from samples of DNA sequences, one must simultaneously account for demographic effects. Here we take a model-based approach to this problem by developing predictions fo......-specific methods, and (iii) strong evidence for very recent population growth....... for patterns of polymorphism in the presence of both population size change and natural selection. If data are available from different functional classes of variation, and a priori information suggests that mutations in one of those classes are selectively neutral, then the putatively neutral class can...

  17. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  18. Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandra Lutz

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa.

  19. Fetal Growth and Risk of Stillbirth: A Population-Based Case–Control Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I.; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M.; Parker, Corette B.; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M.; Dudley, Donald J.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Saade, George R.; Koch, Matthew A.; Rowland Hogue, Carol J.; Varner, Michael W.; Conway, Deborah L.; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L.

    2014-01-01

    Background Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. Methods and Findings We conducted a population-based case–control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced

  20. Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radek Bukowski

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth.We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA (90th percentile at death (stillbirth or delivery (live birth using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively. LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively, but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]. The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile. Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using

  1. Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M; Parker, Corette B; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M; Dudley, Donald J; Stoll, Barbara J; Saade, George R; Koch, Matthew A; Rowland Hogue, Carol J; Varner, Michael W; Conway, Deborah L; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L

    2014-04-01

    Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (percentile) or large for gestational age (LGA) (>90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a

  2. A white-box model of S-shaped and double S-shaped single-species population growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lev V. Kalmykov

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Complex systems may be mechanistically modelled by white-box modeling with using logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata. Mathematical models of complex systems are of three types: black-box (phenomenological, white-box (mechanistic, based on the first principles and grey-box (mixtures of phenomenological and mechanistic models. Most basic ecological models are of black-box type, including Malthusian, Verhulst, Lotka–Volterra models. In black-box models, the individual-based (mechanistic mechanisms of population dynamics remain hidden. Here we mechanistically model the S-shaped and double S-shaped population growth of vegetatively propagated rhizomatous lawn grasses. Using purely logical deterministic individual-based cellular automata we create a white-box model. From a general physical standpoint, the vegetative propagation of plants is an analogue of excitation propagation in excitable media. Using the Monte Carlo method, we investigate a role of different initial positioning of an individual in the habitat. We have investigated mechanisms of the single-species population growth limited by habitat size, intraspecific competition, regeneration time and fecundity of individuals in two types of boundary conditions and at two types of fecundity. Besides that, we have compared the S-shaped and J-shaped population growth. We consider this white-box modeling approach as a method of artificial intelligence which works as automatic hyper-logical inference from the first principles of the studied subject. This approach is perspective for direct mechanistic insights into nature of any complex systems.

  3. Growth Performance Of Mono-Sex And Mixed Sex Population Of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The growth performance of all-male, all-female and mixed sex population of Oreochromis niloticus fed similar diet was carried out. The fingerlings used in the study were of relatively similar weight ranges (24.8 g – 26.6 g) with initial mean weight of 25.7±1.3 g and initial mean total length of 3.8 ± 1.5 cm. The mean increase ...

  4. Early growth stages salinity stress tolerance in CM72 x Gairdner doubled haploid barley population

    OpenAIRE

    Angessa, Tefera Tolera; Zhang, Xiao-Qi; Zhou, Gaofeng; Broughton, Sue; Zhang, Wenying; Li, Chengdao

    2017-01-01

    A doubled haploid (DH) population of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) generated from salinity tolerant genotype CM72 and salinity sensitive variety Gairdner was studied for salinity stress tolerance at germination, seedling emergence and first leaf full expansion growth stages. Germination study was conducted with deionized water, 150 mM and 300 mM NaCl treatments. Seedling stage salinity tolerance was conducted with three treatments: control, 150 mM NaCl added at seedling emergence and first leaf...

  5. Transforming growth factor-β signaling is constantly shaping memory T-cell population

    OpenAIRE

    Ma, Chaoyu; Zhang, Nu

    2015-01-01

    A persistent memory T-cell population is the basis for successful T-cell–based vaccine against pathogens. Numerous extracellular and intracellular molecules have been demonstrated to play critical roles in the differentiation of memory T cells; however, the mechanisms that control the long-term maintenance of memory T cells remain incompletely understood. Here we show that continuous transforming growth factor-β signaling is required to maintain the identity of memory T cells.

  6. Non-occupational exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth in a general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Mette; Andersen, Anne-Marie N; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2010-01-01

    Occupational exposure to organic solvents during pregnancy has been associated with reduced fetal growth. Though organic solvents in the form of paint fumes are also found in the home environment, no studies have investigated the effect of such exposure in a general population. We studied...... associations between residential exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth within the Danish National Birth Cohort which consecutively recruited pregnant women from 1996 to 2002 from all over Denmark. Around the 30th pregnancy week, 19,000 mothers were interviewed about use of paint...... of preterm birth after adjustment for potential confounders. Our results suggest that there are no causal relationship between non-occupational exposure to paint fumes in the residence during pregnancy and fetal growth....

  7. Uropathogenic Escherichia coli Express Type 1 Fimbriae Only in Surface Adherent Populations Under Physiological Growth Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stærk, Kristian; Khandige, Surabhi; Kolmos, Hans Jørn; Møller-Jensen, Jakob; Andersen, Thomas Emil

    2016-02-01

    Most uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC) strains harbor genes encoding adhesive type 1 fimbria (T1F). T1F is a key factor for successful establishment of urinary tract infection. However, UPEC strains typically do not express T1F in the bladder urine, and little is understood about its induction in vivo. A flow chamber infection model was used to grow UPEC under conditions simulating distinct infection niches in the bladder. Type 1 fimbriation on isolated UPEC was subsequently determined by yeast cell agglutination and immunofluorescence microscopy, and the results were correlated with the ability to adhere to and invade cultured human bladder cells. Although inactive during planktonic growth in urine, T1F expression occurs when UPEC settles on and infects bladder epithelial cells or colonizes catheters. As a result, UPEC in these sessile populations enhances bladder cell adhesion and invasion potential. Only T1F-negative UPEC are subsequently released to the urine, thus limiting T1F expression to surface-associated UPEC alone. Our results demonstrate that T1F expression is strictly regulated under physiological growth conditions with increased expression during surface growth adaptation and infection of uroepithelial cells. This leads to separation of UPEC into low-expression planktonic populations and high-expression sessile populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

  8. Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2017-03-01

    This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw and Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.

  9. The relationship between population ageing and the economic growth in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brendan, Lo Rick; Sek, Siok Kun

    2017-08-01

    Asia has witnessed robust economic growth since the 1960s. Today, emerging markets in Asia have managed to maintain rapid growth even when the world's main economies suffer from debt and banking crises. However, declining total fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, continuous change of birth and death patterns, and increasing share of old age population in the age distribution in Asia exert significant pressure on its economies. This paper analyses the relationship between population ageing and economic growth using 2 different panels of countries; one Asian and another the from the oldest countries worldwide between 1970 and 2014. The analysis is based on the Auto Regression Distributed Lag models. The MG (Mean Group) and PMG (Pooled Mean Group) estimations are applied in this analysis. The Hausman Test is conducted to decide between the MG and PMG estimators. We find that ageing will negatively affect the economy in the long run. The growing number of youths will initially have a negative effect on the economy but would eventually lead to a positive growth in the future. The old age dependency ratio has yet to have affect the Asian economy but is expected eventually to impose a negative effect as seen in the oldest nations of the world.

  10. Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth: a multivariate and causality analysis for Ghana, 1971-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

    2016-07-01

    In this study, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth in Ghana was investigated from 1971 to 2013 by comparing the vector error correction model (VECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Prior to testing for Granger causality based on VECM, the study tested for unit roots, Johansen's multivariate co-integration and performed a variance decomposition analysis using Cholesky's technique. Evidence from the variance decomposition shows that 21 % of future shocks in carbon dioxide emissions are due to fluctuations in energy use, 8 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in GDP, and 6 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in population. There was evidence of bidirectional causality running from energy use to GDP and a unidirectional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy use, carbon dioxide emissions to GDP, carbon dioxide emissions to population, and population to energy use. Evidence from the long-run elasticities shows that a 1 % increase in population in Ghana will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.72 %. There was evidence of short-run equilibrium relationship running from energy use to carbon dioxide emissions and GDP to carbon dioxide emissions. As a policy implication, the addition of renewable energy and clean energy technologies into Ghana's energy mix can help mitigate climate change and its impact in the future.

  11. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Simone Vincenzi

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth and L∞ (asymptotic size. Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  12. Determining Individual Variation in Growth and Its Implication for Life-History and Population Processes Using the Empirical Bayes Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J.; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J.

    2014-01-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish. PMID:25211603

  13. Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

    2014-09-01

    The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

  14. Prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors in Chinese Jing compared with Mulao populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Rui-Bin; Liao, Pei-Juan; Yin, Rui-Xing; Hu, Xi-Jiang; Huang, Jian; Wei, Dai-Xun; Li, Hui; Huang, Feng; Yao, Li-Mei; Pan, Shang-Ling; Yang, De-Zhai; Lin, Wei-Xiong

    2015-12-01

    *These authors contributed equally to this work. At present, they work at the Hezhou People's Hospital, Hezhou, China.To retrospectively compare differences in the prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors between the Chinese Jing and Mulao populations. Subjects of Jing and Mulao ethnicities were surveyed using stratified randomized sampling. Demography, diet and lifestyle data were collected using standardized questionnaires. Several anthropometric parameters, blood pressure (BP) levels and serum lipid concentrations were obtained. Data from 915 Jing and 911 Mulao subjects aged ≥ 35 years were included. Diastolic BP levels and prevalence of hypertension were lower, but prevalence of isolated systolic hypertension was higher, in the Jing compared with the Mulao population. Prevalence of hypertension in the age 60-69 years, body mass index (BMI) > 24 kg/m(2), and smoker subgroups was lower in the Jing compared with the Mulao populations. Prevalence of hypertension correlated with age, cigarette smoking, triglyceride level, waist circumference, sodium intake and total dietary fibre in the Jing population; hypertension prevalence also correlated with age, triglyceride level, BMI, total fat, sodium intake and total dietary fibre in the Mulao population (unconditional logistic regression analyses). Prevalence of hypertension and associated risk factors were different between the two ethnic minorities, which might result from the combined effects of differences in their geographic, dietary, lifestyle, and genetic backgrounds. © The Author(s) 2015.

  15. [Comparative study on FTIR spectra of garlic from different geographical populations].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guan, Ming; Li, Xiao-Jing; Guo, Yong; Lu, Hai-Bo; Du, Wei-Jun; Chen, Jian

    2011-06-01

    In the present paper, 25 garlic samples from different geographical populations were studied. FTIR spectra for each sample were obtained by using Fourier transform infrared spectrometer, and the similarity of garlic samples from different geographical populations was compared through "quick comparison" function in software of the spectrometer. The results showed that there are differences among FTIR spectra of garlic samples from different geographical populations. The quick comparison showed that the similarity is from 76.3% to 99.8% and the diversity of differentiation is more obvious. To some extent, the results reflected the effects of populations environment on physical and chemical properties of garlic. The study provided a simple, rapid, non-destructive and new methods for identification and evaluation of garlic germplasm resources.

  16. Comparative study of the female gametogenic cycle in three populations of Buccinanops globulosus (Caenogastropoda: Nassariidae) from Patagonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avaca, María Soledad; Martín, Pablo; van der Molen, Silvina; Narvarte, Maite

    2015-03-01

    The populations of Buccinanops globulosus from three different sites of northern Patagonia were compared in the female reproductive cycle over a 2-year study period (September 2006-August 2008). These populations differed in demographic and life-history traits (sex ratios, size frequency distributions, growth rates and fecundity). Also, two of these populations show imposex-affected females (Bahía San Antonio, BSA and Bahía Nueva, BN), whereas the other (Playa Villarino, PV) is imposex-free and constitutes a commercial fishery ground for this species. The gametogenic activity of this species has not been studied earlier. Females showed the same gonadal stages in the three populations; however, there were differences in the female size at which each gonadal stage occurred. Monthly variation in gonadal stages and in oocyte size indicated that females of B. globulosus showed a seasonal gametogenic pattern without the occurrence of a resting period. Evacuation of mature oocytes (up to 252.5 µm) occurred mainly from September to December (austral spring) in BSA and PV and from December to March (austral summer) in BN. Gonad maturation and the presence of females carrying egg capsules in the field coincided with changes in water surface temperature and a longer day length. Our results indicate that the occurrence of imposex in the populations studied apparently does not affect the gametogenic activity in females. This study provides further insights into the reproductive biology of B. globulosus. The identification of population variation in reproductive traits should lead to more effective management of the species.

  17. REGIONAL COMPONENTS OF GROWTH THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF THE POPULATION (FOR EXAMPLE, VORONEZH REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. A. Serebryakova

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available At the present stage of development of economy there is a transformation of main objectives of the state from ensuring growth of welfare of citizens to ensuring continuous growth of quality of life. Ensuring growth of quality of life of the population is carried out not only on state, but also on regional levels. At the state level key tasks are formed, the state assumes a considerable share of functions on achievement of the designated purpose. In the real research the attention to consideration of the program documents directed on improvement of quality of life of the population on the example of the Voronezh region is paid. The program documents of a social orientation existing in the region are for this purpose studied. It is revealed that in the region a number of the programs and subprogrammes aimed at improvement of a demographic situation, improvement of a regional budgetary and tax policy, social support of citizens in general works. As tools which use regional authorities, are noted: social standards, address social help, social contracts. It is established that introduction of system of social contracts allows to save budget funds and, at the same time, to motivate the persons which are in a difficult life situation on change of the situation to the best, joint efforts with social security authorities. It is noted that as the leading principles of rendering the social help paramount value has detailed definition of degree of need of the help and a condition of granting. The last often generate dependant moods which are important for leveling, using levers of social interaction. The analysis of the contents of the realized programs for improvement of quality of life of the population allowed to reveal advantages and defects in these programs, and also to define reserves of growth of quality of life. So, it is specified that program documents of regional level in the prevailing majority have a narrow focus on ensuring the help and

  18. Rapid growth and genetic diversity retention in an isolated reintroduced black bear population in the central appalachians

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Sean M.; Cox, John J.; Clark, Joseph D.; Augustine, Benjamin J.; Hast, John T.; Gibbs, Dan; Strunk, Michael; Dobey, Steven

    2015-01-01

    Animal reintroductions are important tools of wildlife management to restore species to their historical range, and they can also create unique opportunities to study population dynamics and genetics from founder events. We used non-invasive hair sampling in a systematic, closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study design at the Big South Fork (BSF) area in Kentucky during 2010 and Tennessee during 2012 to estimate the demographic and genetic characteristics of the black bear (Ursus americanus) population that resulted from a reintroduced founding population of 18 bears in 1998. We estimated 38 (95% CI: 31–66) and 190 (95% CI: 170–219) bears on the Kentucky and Tennessee study areas, respectively. Based on the Tennessee abundance estimate alone, the mean annual growth rate was 18.3% (95% CI: 17.4–19.5%) from 1998 to 2012. We also compared the genetic characteristics of bears sampled during 2010–2012 to bears in the population during 2000–2002, 2–4 years following reintroduction, and to the source population. We found that the level of genetic diversity since reintroduction as indicated by expected heterozygosity (HE) remained relatively constant (HE(source, 2004) = 0.763, HE(BSF, 2000–2002) = 0.729, HE(BSF, 2010–2012) = 0.712) and the effective number of breeders (NB) remained low but had increased since reintroduction in the absence of sufficient immigration (NB(BSF, 2000–2002) = 12, NB(BSF, 2010–2012)  = 35). This bear population appears to be genetically isolated, but contrary to our expectations, we did not find evidence of genetic diversity loss or other deleterious genetic effects typically observed from small founder groups. We attribute that to high initial genetic diversity in the founder group combined with overlapping generations and rapid population growth. Although the population remains relatively small, the reintroduction using a small founder group appears to be demographically and genetically

  19. Growth and physiological responses to cadmium stress of two populations of Dittrichia viscosa (L.) Greuter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fernández, R.; Bertrand, A. [Departamento de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, Universidad de Oviedo, Catedrático Rodrigo Uría s/n, 33071 Oviedo (Spain); Instituto Universitario de Biotecnología de Asturias (Spain); Reis, R.; Mourato, M.P.; Martins, L.L. [Departamento de Química Agrícola e Ambiental, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa, Tapada da Ajuda 1349-017, Lisboa (Portugal); González, A., E-mail: aidag@uniovi.es [Departamento de Biología de Organismos y Sistemas, Universidad de Oviedo, Catedrático Rodrigo Uría s/n, 33071 Oviedo (Spain); Instituto Universitario de Biotecnología de Asturias (Spain)

    2013-01-15

    Highlights: ► Cd tolerance and accumulation are constitutive traits in D. viscosa. ► The physiological mechanisms involved in Cd stress differed between clones. ► The metallicolous clone was more Cd tolerant than the non-metallicolous one. ► Antioxidant enzymes had important roles in each clone, especially peroxidases. -- Abstract: Two clones of Dittrichia viscosa (L.) Greuter from contrasting populations, DV-A (metallicolous) and DV-W (non-metallicolous), were studied to compare Cd accumulation and tolerance. After 10 days of hydroponic culture with 0, 5, 10, and 15 mg Cd L{sup −1}, metal accumulation and plant growth were measured as well as other stress markers such as decrease in the content of photosynthetic pigments, lipid peroxidation, phenols, H{sub 2}O{sub 2}, and free proline. We also analyzed the activity of the antioxidant enzymes guaiacol and ascorbate peroxidases, catalase, superoxide dismutase, and glutathione reductase as well as their isoform patterns. Our results confirmed a high Cd tolerance and accumulation in both clones of D. viscosa, which suggests that these traits are constitutive in this species. However, when the Cd concentration in solution exceeded 10 mg Cd L{sup −1}, DV-A was more tolerant than DV-W. The physiological mechanisms involved in Cd tolerance also differed between them, although phenols and guaiacol peroxidase played an important role in both clones. The effective Cd detoxification of DV-A consisted mainly in a promoted ascorbate peroxidase activity and better efficiency of catalase and glutathione reductase enzymes.

  20. Climate threats on growth of rear-edge European beech peripheral populations in Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorado-Liñán, I.; Akhmetzyanov, L.; Menzel, A.

    2017-12-01

    European beech ( Fagus sylvatica L.) forests in the Iberian Peninsula are a clear example of a temperate forest tree species at the rear edge of its large distribution area in Europe. The expected drier and warmer climate may alter tree growth and species distribution. Consequently, the peripheral populations will most likely be the most threatened ones. Four peripheral beech forests in the Iberian Peninsula were studied in order to assess the climate factors influencing tree growth for the last six decades. The analyses included an individual tree approach in order to detect not only the changes in the sensitivity to climate but also the potential size-mediated sensitivity to climate. Our results revealed a dominant influence of previous and current year summer on tree growth during the last six decades, although the analysis in two equally long periods unveiled changes and shifts in tree sensitivity to climate. The individual tree approach showed that those changes in tree response to climate are not size dependent in most of the cases. We observed a reduced negative effect of warmer winter temperatures at some sites and a generalized increased influence of previous year climatic conditions on current year tree growth. These results highlight the crucial role played by carryover effects and stored carbohydrates for future tree growth and species persistence.

  1. Mortality among patients with cleared hepatitis C virus infection compared to the general population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Omland, Lars Haukali; Christensen, Peer Brehm; Krarup, Henrik Bygum

    2011-01-01

    The increased mortality in HCV-infected individuals partly stems from viral damage to the liver and partly from risk-taking behaviours. We examined mortality in patients who cleared their HCV-infection, comparing it to that of the general population. We also addressed the question whether prognosis...... differed according to age, substance abuse (alcohol abuse and injection drug use) and comorbidity....

  2. Anatomy of a bottleneck: diagnosing factors limiting population growth in the Puerto Rican parrot

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beissenger, S.R.; Wunderle, J.M.; Meyers, J.M.; Saether, B.-E.; Engen, S.

    2008-01-01

    The relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes that maintain population bottlenecks has received little consideration. We evaluate the role of these factors in maintaining the Puerto Rican Parrot (Amazona vittata) in a prolonged bottleneck from 1973 through 2000 despite intensive conservation efforts. We first conduct a risk analysis, then examine evidence for the importance of specific processes maintaining the bottleneck using the multiple competing hypotheses approach, and finally integrate these results through a sensitivity analysis of a demographic model using life-stage simulation analysis (LSA) to determine the relative importance of genetic, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic processes on population growth. Annual population growth has been slow and variable (1.0 6 5.2 parrots per year, or an average k?1.05 6 0.19) from 16 parrots (1973) to a high of 40-42 birds (1997-1998). A risk analysis based on population prediction intervals (PPI) indicates great risk and large uncertainty, with a range of 22?83 birds in the 90% PPI only five years into the future. Four primary factors (reduced hatching success due to inbreeding, failure of adults to nest, nest failure due to nongenetic causes, and reduced survival of adults and juveniles) were responsible for maintaining the bottleneck. Egghatchability rates were low (70.6% per egg and 76.8% per pair), and hatchability increased after mate changes, suggesting inbreeding effects. Only an average of 34% of the population nested annually, which was well below the percentage of adults that should have reached an age of first breeding (41-56%). This chronic failure to nest appears to have been caused primarily by environmental and/or behavioral factors, and not by nest-site scarcity or a skewed sex ratio. Nest failure rates from nongenetic causes (i.e., predation, parasitism, and wet cavities) were low (29%) due to active management (protecting nests and fostering

  3. Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

    2014-01-01

    The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

  4. Comparative Analysis of the Anatomy of Two Populations of Red-Root Amaranth (Amaranthus retroflexus L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sava Vrbničanin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The anatomy of stems and leaves of two populations of the weed species Amaranthus retroflexus L. (red-root amaranth (pop. AMARE1 having green stems covered in sparse hairs and pop. AMARE2 with green but notably dense stem hairs was analysed in order better to understand the uptake and translocation of herbicides that could be indicative of the species’ evolving resistance to herbicides. Samples of the two populations (AMARE1 and AMARE2 were collected from arable land of the Institute of Maize Research at Zemun Polje in 2006. Sampling was performed at the stage of full vegetative growth of plants.Permanent microscoping preparations were made to measure and analyze elements of the anatomy of stems (stem epidermis, cortex, collenchyma, central cylinder and diameter and leaves (leaf epidermis upper surface and underside, mesophyll, leaf thickness and bundle sheath thickness.Both analysed populations of A. retroflexus, morphologically characterized by different density of stem hairiness, were found to have a typical structure of herbaceous dicots. The stem had three distinctive zones: epidermis, cortex and central cylinder. Amaranth leaves have dorsoventral structure, i.e. their upper surface and underside can be differentiated. The results indicated high and very high significance of differences found in stem anatomy between the two analysed populations, while leaf anatomy was not found to display significant differences other than in mesophyll thickness.

  5. Growth Patterns in the Irish Pyridoxine Nonresponsive Homocystinuria Population and the Influence of Metabolic Control and Protein Intake.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Orla; Coughlan, Aoife; Grant, Tim; McNulty, Jenny; Clark, Anne; Deverell, Deirdre; Mayne, Philip; Hughes, Joanne; Monavari, Ahmad; Knerr, Ina; Crushell, Ellen

    2017-01-01

    A low methionine diet is the mainstay of treatment for pyridoxine nonresponsive homocystinuria (HCU). There are various guidelines for recommended protein intakes for HCU and clinical practice varies. Poor growth has been associated with low cystine levels. This retrospective review of 48 Irish pyridoxine nonresponsive HCU patients assessed weight, height, body mass index (BMI), protein intake, and metabolic control up to 18 years at nine set time points. Patients diagnosed through newborn screening (NBS) were compared to late diagnosed (LD) patients. At 18 years the LD group (n = 12, mean age at diagnosis 5.09 years) were heavier (estimated effect +4.97 Kg, P = 0.0058) and taller (estimated effect +7.97 cm P = 0.0204) than the NBS group (n = 36). There was no difference in growth rate between the groups after 10 years of age. The HCU population were heavier and taller than the general population by one standard deviation with no difference in BMI. There was no association between intermittently low cystine levels and height. Three protein intake guidelines were compared; there was no difference in adult height between those who met the lowest of the guidelines (Genetic Metabolic Dietitians International) and those with a higher protein intake.

  6. [Overweight and obesity prevalence estimates in a population from Zaragoza by using different growth references].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lasarte-Velillas, J J; Hernández-Aguilar, M T; Martínez-Boyero, T; Soria-Cabeza, G; Soria-Ruiz, D; Bastarós-García, J C; Gil-Hernández, I; Pastor-Arilla, C; Lasarte-Sanz, I

    2015-03-01

    To investigate the prevalence of overweight and obesity among our pediatric population and observe whether the use of different growth references for classification produce significant differences. A total of 35824 boys and girls aged between 2 and 14 years were included. Body mass index (BMI) was used to calculate the prevalence of overweight-obesity by age and sex. Prevalence was obtained by using a set of national references (Hernández's standards) and the references of World Health Organization (WHO standards). Prevalences were compared for each age and sex subset, as well as with the percentage of patients who had an overweight-obesity diagnosis in the clinical record. The overall prevalence of overweight-obesity among children aged 2 to 14 years was 17.0% (95% CI; 16.1%-18.0%) according to the Hernández standards vs 30.8% (95% CI; 29.9%-31.7%) according to WHO standards (10.1% vs 12.2% obese, and 6.9% vs 18.6% overweight). It was significantly higher in boys, by both standards, due to the higher prevalence of obesity. By using the Hernández standards the prevalence was significantly lower than by using WHO standards for all ages and for both sexes. A low percentage of patients were found to have an obesity-overweight diagnosis in the clinical record (from 3% to 22% at the ages of 2 and 14 years, respectively). The prevalence of overweight-obesity in our population is high, especially among boys. Using Hernández standards leads to an under-estimation of the problem, especially because it detects less overweight patients, thus we recommend using the WHO standards in our daily practice. The low number of overweight-obesity diagnoses in the clinical records might reflect that there is little awareness of the problem by the professionals. Copyright © 2013 Asociación Española de Pediatría. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

  7. Social stigma related to halitosis in Saudi and British population: A comparative study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Yunis Saleem Bhat

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Oral malodor or halitosis is a common problem in the general population throughout the world. Results of previous research findings suggest that there is a relationship between oral malodor and social anxiety disorder. Halitosis can be very damaging to someone psychologically due to the social stigma. In this study, we tried to assess the social stigma related to halitosis and compare that in Saudi and British population. Methodology: A pretested questionnaire was distributed among Saudi and British population. Responses were obtained from 308 (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and 304 (United Kingdom participants. The purpose of this study was explained to the participants before distributing questionnaire form and the information was collected accordingly. Results: A total of 612 participants, 308 (Jeddah and Abha and 304 (Cardiff, Edinburgh, and Glasgow were selected and all the participants were aware of their halitosis. Selected Saudi population assessed their halitosis as mild (50.6%, moderate (30.12% and severe (19.28%. Selected British population assessed their halitosis as mild (39.71%, moderate (36.76%, and severe (23.53%. 71.2% of the Saudi population selected and 56.6% of the United Kingdom population selected responded that they encountered individuals with halitosis. 76.9% of Saudi population selected and 55.8% of United Kingdom population selected encountered social embarrassment due to halitosis. Conclusion: Considerable amount of stigma associated with halitosis persists in both countries. Though there are no significant differences in the social stigma attached with halitosis between the United Kingdom and Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, it is still a matter of concern.

  8. Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

    2012-03-15

    Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

  9. Does Size Matter? A Study of Risk Perceptions of Global Population Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

    2017-01-01

    The global human population now exceeds 7 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion around 2060. While population growth has been associated with certain benefits (e.g., economies of scale, technological advancements), theoretical models, probabilistic projections, and empirical evidence also indicate that this growth could increase the likelihood of many adverse events (e.g., climate change, resource shortages) and the impact of these events, as more people are exposed to the outcomes. While concerns about these issues are well-documented in the academic literature, there is little evidence concerning the public's perceptions of the risks associated with global population growth (GPG) and how these perceptions are likely to influence related decisions. To address these issues, we conducted a U.K.-based study that examined respondents' risk perceptions of GPG, their willingness to embrace mitigation/precautionary behaviors, and reasons for variations in these two factors. We found that GPG is perceived as a moderate-to-high risk, with concerns about the increased likelihood of resource shortages, ecological damage, and violent conflict being foremost. Respondents believed that the worst effects of GPG would arrive around 2050 and would be experienced by the world's poorest people. Respondents who perceived greater levels of risk from GPG were generally those who indicated a greater willingness to embrace mitigation behaviors (e.g., reduce resource consumption) and preventative actions (e.g., support political action to limit growth). We discuss how our findings might be utilized to better manage the potential challenges associated with GPG and we suggest several directions for further research. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  10. Energy Transitions, Economic Growth and Structural Change: Portugal in a Long-run Comparative Perspective

    OpenAIRE

    Henriques, Sofia

    2011-01-01

    This book analyses, in an international comparative context, Portugal´s energy transition from organic sources to fossil fuels in the period 1856-2006. It investigates the role that energy played in the industrialization of the country and how the relationship between energy and economic growth changed with the transition from an industrial to a service society. A unique dataset of energy quantities and prices reveals that Portugal´s transition to fossil fuels and high-energy quantities wa...

  11. Development and Environment: An Assessment of Population Growth vis-a-vis Soil Erosion in Nepal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rishikesh Pandey

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper discusses the environmental myths and narratives prevailing in Nepal in reference to the population growth and soil erosion. Soil erosion is taken as primary element of environmental degradation by the theory of the Himalayan Environmental Degradation (HED. Many myths and narratives were generated by the vested interest groups to develop the HED. Population growth and over exploitation of natural resource were considered as the prominent causes of soil erosion related environmental degradation. The myths and narratives based on the theory of the HED are still influential in development and environmental policy process in Nepal. In this background this paper highlights some of the research findings that are contrary to conventional belief i.e. population growth lead to soil erosion. The paper is based on literature review. The research evidences from both social and natural sciences are entertained. This paper generates alternative thinking to end the hegemony and unquestionable acceptance of the findings of research undertaken by 'Western, White men' as truth; and their recommendations as the 'blue print' solutions. Critics over orthodox environmentalism and neo-Malthusian accounts are made to validate the ‘hybrid knowledge’ generated in this paper. There are evidences that population pressure have promoted soil erosion. However, Himalayan environmental dynamism which is purely a natural process is far more responsible for soil erosion in the Himalaya. Hence, it is suggested that a critical assessment of any ‘facts’ obtained from research should be made before making them the narratives and reflecting them in policy process. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/dsaj.v7i0.10442 Dhaulagiri Journal of Sociology and Anthropology Vol. 7, 2013; 173-196

  12. Identification of Novel Growth Regulators in Plant Populations Expressing Random Peptides.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Zhilong; Clancy, Maureen A; Carvalho, Raquel F; Elliott, Kiona; Folta, Kevin M

    2017-10-01

    The use of chemical genomics approaches allows the identification of small molecules that integrate into biological systems, thereby changing discrete processes that influence growth, development, or metabolism. Libraries of chemicals are applied to living systems, and changes in phenotype are observed, potentially leading to the identification of new growth regulators. This work describes an approach that is the nexus of chemical genomics and synthetic biology. Here, each plant in an extensive population synthesizes a unique small peptide arising from a transgene composed of a randomized nucleic acid sequence core flanked by translational start, stop, and cysteine-encoding (for disulfide cyclization) sequences. Ten and 16 amino acid sequences, bearing a core of six and 12 random amino acids, have been synthesized in Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) plants. Populations were screened for phenotypes from the seedling stage through senescence. Dozens of phenotypes were observed in over 2,000 plants analyzed. Ten conspicuous phenotypes were verified through separate transformation and analysis of multiple independent lines. The results indicate that these populations contain sequences that often influence discrete aspects of plant biology. Novel peptides that affect photosynthesis, flowering, and red light response are described. The challenge now is to identify the mechanistic integrations of these peptides into biochemical processes. These populations serve as a new tool to identify small molecules that modulate discrete plant functions that could be produced later in transgenic plants or potentially applied exogenously to impart their effects. These findings could usher in a new generation of agricultural growth regulators, herbicides, or defense compounds. © 2017 American Society of Plant Biologists. All Rights Reserved.

  13. Genotoxic effect of cadmium in okra seedlings: comparative investigation with population parameters and molecular markers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aydin, Semra Soydam; Basaran, Esin; Cansaran-Duman, Demet; Aras, Sümer

    2013-11-01

    Plants are considered as good bioindicators because of their significant role in food chain transfer. They are also easy to grow, adaptable to environmental stresses and can be used for assaying a range of environmental conditions in different habitats. Thus, many plant species have been used as bioindicators. In order to evaluate the genotoxic effect of cadmium, okra (Abelmoschus esculontus L.) seedlings were treated with different concentrations (30, 60, 120 mg I(-1)) of cadmium and investigated for their population parameters such as inhibition of root growth; total soluble protein content, dry weight and also the impact of metal on the genetic material by RAPD analysis. Root growth and total soluble protein content in okra seedlings were reduced with increased Cd concentrations. RAPD analysis indicated formation of new bands mostly at 60 and 120 mg I(-1) Cd treatments. Altered DNA band patterns and population parameters after Cd treatments suggest that okra could be used as an indicator to reveal the effects of genotoxic agents.

  14. A comparative evaluation of semen parameters in pre- and post-Hurricane Katrina human population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caner Baran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A natural disaster leading to accumulation of environmental contaminants may have substantial effects on the male reproductive system. Our aim was to compare and assess semen parameters in a normospermic population residing in the Southern Louisiana, USA area pre- and post-Hurricane Katrina. We retrospectively evaluated semen analyses data (n = 3452 of 1855 patients who attended the Tulane University Andrology/Fertility Clinic between 1999 and 2013. The study inclusion criteria were men whose semen analyses showed ≥ 1.5 ml volume; ≥15 million ml -1 sperm concentration; ≥39 million total sperm count; ≥40% motility; >30% morphology, with an abstinence interval of 2-7 days. After the inclusion criteria applied to the population, 367 normospermic patients were included in the study. Descriptive statistics and group-based analyses were performed to interpret the differences between the pre-Katrina (Group 1, 1999-2005 and the post-Katrina (Group 2, 2006-2013 populations. There were significant differences in motility, morphology, number of white blood cell, immature germ cell count, pH and presence of sperm agglutination, but surprisingly there were no significant differences in sperm count between the two populations. This long-term comparative analysis further documents that a major natural disaster with its accompanied environmental issues can influence certain semen parameters (e.g., motility and morphology and, by extension, fertility potential of the population of such areas.

  15. Linking Crystal Populations to Dynamic States: Crystal Dissolution and Growth During an Open-System Event

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergantz, G. W.; Schleicher, J.; Burgisser, A.

    2016-12-01

    The identification of shared characteristics in zoned crystals has motivated the definition of crystal populations. These populations reflect the simultaneous transport of crystals, heat and composition during open-system events. An obstacle to interpreting the emergence of a population is the absence of a way to correlate specific dynamic conditions with the characteristic attributes of a population. By combining a boundary-layer diffusion controlled model for crystal growth/dissolution with discrete-element magma dynamics simulations of crystal-bearing magmas, the creation of populations can be simulated. We have implemented a method that decomposes the chemical potential into the thermal and compositional contributions to crystal dissolution/growth. This allows for the explicit treatment of thermal inertia and thermal-compositional decoupling as fluid circulation stirs the system during an open-system event. We have identified three distinct dynamic states producing crystal populations. They are based on the volume fraction of crystals. In a mushy system, thermal and compositional states are tightly linked as the volume involved in the mixing is constrained by the so-called mixing bowl (Bergantz et al., 2015). The mixing bowl volume is a function of the visco-plastic response of the mush and the intrusion width, not by the progressive entrainment of the new intrusion as commonly assumed. Crystal dissolution is the dominate response to input of more primitive magma. At the other endmember, under very dilute conditions, thermal and compositional conditions can become decoupled, and the in-coming magma forms a double-diffusive low-Re jet. This can allow for both dissolution and growth as crystals circulate widely into an increasingly stratified system. A middle range of crystal concentration produces a very complex feedback, as sedimenting crystals form fingers and chains that interact with the incoming magma, break-up the entrainment with chaotic stirring and add

  16. Protected lands, population growth, and women's lives: a proposed agenda for action.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engelman, R

    1994-01-01

    Possible measures to slow the expansion of population pressures on protected lands and natural systems are wrought with the questions of sexuality, reproductive anatomy, abortion, and behavior. Even the idea of population policy remains a sensitive topic. The most effective population policies appear to be linked to human development generally, i.e., development is the best contraceptive. Widespread access to contraceptives also produces results, as in the case of Bangladesh, where government efforts to boost contraceptive prevalence from 3% to 40% in two decades also resulted in the reduction of total fertility rate from 7 in 1970 to 5.5 in 1991. A new consensus formed on the promotion of family planning and other measures to achieve fertility reduction at the International Conference on Population and Development, Cairo, September 1994, in spite of the remonstrations of the Vatican about abortion. Women's educational levels significantly impact fertility rates, for instance, in Peru a woman with 10 years of education has 2-3 children, whereas an uneducated woman has 7-8 children. In 23 developed countries women with secondary school education typically have their first child 3.5 years later than uneducated women. Such delays in addition to small families and credit extension schemes for women to start small businesses influence fertility and population growth greatly, provided women have access to family planning. The demographer John Bongaarts has calculated that, despite hopeful signs of declining fertility, the projected 2 billion people added to the world's population in the next two decades stem from the population momentum associated with the large numbers in reproductive age. If the average age of first childbirth could be raised 5 years in developing countries, world population in 2100 would be lower by 1.2 billion people than projected. Ultimately, an understanding must be reached about the connection between protected land and people's livelihood by

  17. Growth in Bupalus piniarius (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) in relation to larval population density : 1. The influence of some abiotic factors on growth : 2. The effect of larval density

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gruys, P.

    1970-01-01

    In a field population of Bupalus piniarius in the Netherlands, Klomp (1958a, 1966) found a negative correlation of population density with growth and adult fecundity. The experimental analysis of this relationship in B. piniarius is reported in this paper.

    Part

  18. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  19. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

  20. Optimal resting-growth strategies of microbial populations in fluctuating environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nico Geisel

    Full Text Available Bacteria spend most of their lifetime in non-growing states which allow them to survive extended periods of stress and starvation. When environments improve, they must quickly resume growth to maximize their share of limited nutrients. Cells with higher stress resistance often survive longer stress durations at the cost of needing more time to resume growth, a strong disadvantage in competitive environments. Here we analyze the basis of optimal strategies that microorganisms can use to cope with this tradeoff. We explicitly show that the prototypical inverse relation between stress resistance and growth rate can explain much of the different types of behavior observed in stressed microbial populations. Using analytical mathematical methods, we determine the environmental parameters that decide whether cells should remain vegetative upon stress exposure, downregulate their metabolism to an intermediate optimum level, or become dormant. We find that cell-cell variability, or intercellular noise, is consistently beneficial in the presence of extreme environmental fluctuations, and that it provides an efficient population-level mechanism for adaption in a deteriorating environment. Our results reveal key novel aspects of responsive phenotype switching and its role as an adaptive strategy in changing environments.

  1. Warming, soil moisture, and loss of snow increase Bromus tectorum’s population growth rate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aldo Compagnoni

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Climate change threatens to exacerbate the impacts of invasive species. In temperate ecosystems, direct effects of warming may be compounded by dramatic reductions in winter snow cover. Cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum is arguably the most destructive biological invader in basins of the North American Intermountain West, and warming could increase its performance through direct effects on demographic rates or through indirect effects mediated by loss of snow. We conducted a two-year experimental manipulation of temperature and snow pack to test whether 1 warming increases cheatgrass population growth rate and 2 reduced snow cover contributes to cheatgrass’ positive response to warming. We used infrared heaters operating continuously to create the warming treatment, but turned heaters on only during snowfalls for the snowmelt treatment. We monitored cheatgrass population growth rate and the vital rates that determine it: emergence, survival and fecundity. Growth rate increased in both warming and snowmelt treatments. The largest increases occurred in warming plots during the wettest year, indicating that the magnitude of response to warming depends on moisture availability. Warming increased both fecundity and survival, especially in the wet year, while snowmelt contributed to the positive effects of warming by increasing survival. Our results indicate that increasing temperature will exacerbate cheatgrass impacts, especially where warming causes large reductions in the depth and duration of snow cover.

  2. Implications of density-dependent population growth for frequency and density-dependent selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smouse, P.E.

    1976-01-01

    The relationship between density-dependent population growth and frequency- and density-dependent selection was investigated. For the haploid asexual case, Malthusian growth leads to constant birth and death rates and constant fitness values. A more general Lotka-Volterrra formulation leads to both density- and frequency-dependent selection. The more general formulation is necessary but not sufficient for polymorphic coexistence in asexual forms. For the diploid sexual case, Malthusian growth leads to frequency-dependent population trajectories, but the basic birth and death rates are constant. A density-dependent model, analogous to the Lotka-Volterra model of the asexual case, leads to both frequency- and density-dependent fitness values and selection differentials. If selective differentials are solely reproductive in origin, whether density dependent or independent, Hardy-Weinberg frequencies characterize the polymorphic equilibrium, when it exists. This is not the case when selection differentials involve survival components, whether density dependent or independent. It is shown that heterosis is not necessary to achieve stable polymorphism and that the polymorphic condition can be maintained by certain types of intergenotypic competition as well.

  3. Crowded growth leads to the spontaneous evolution of semistable coexistence in laboratory yeast populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frenkel, Evgeni M; McDonald, Michael J; Van Dyken, J David; Kosheleva, Katya; Lang, Gregory I; Desai, Michael M

    2015-09-08

    Identifying the mechanisms that create and maintain biodiversity is a central challenge in biology. Stable diversification of microbial populations often requires the evolution of differences in resource utilization. Alternatively, coexistence can be maintained by specialization to exploit spatial heterogeneity in the environment. Here, we report spontaneous diversification maintained by a related but distinct mechanism: crowding avoidance. During experimental evolution of laboratory Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations, we observed the repeated appearance of "adherent" (A) lineages able to grow as a dispersed film, in contrast to their crowded "bottom-dweller" (B) ancestors. These two types stably coexist because dispersal reduces interference competition for nutrients among kin, at the cost of a slower maximum growth rate. This tradeoff causes the frequencies of the two types to oscillate around equilibrium over the course of repeated cycles of growth, crowding, and dispersal. However, further coevolution of the A and B types can perturb and eventually destroy their coexistence over longer time scales. We introduce a simple mathematical model of this "semistable" coexistence, which explains the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Because crowded growth generally limits nutrient access in biofilms, the mechanism we report here may be broadly important in maintaining diversity in these natural environments.

  4. Comparative mortality patterns among the black population and the white-mestizo in Cali and Valle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Urrea-Giraldo

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available The article analyzes the patterns of comparative mortality of Cali and Valle, between the Afrodescendant and white-mestizo population, by sex and age groups, based on the metadata of deaths in the 2005 Census and the death certificate of the year 2010. The findings reveal strong differentials by age structures of deaths (pyramids and the cumulative mortality, which are conclusive of unequal mortality patterns between the two populations, both in Cali and Valle. This evinces demography of social inequality based on ethnic-racial component.

  5. Endless urban growth? On the mismatch of population, household and urban land area growth and its effects on the urban debate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, Dagmar; Kabisch, Nadja; Haase, Annegret

    2013-01-01

    In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990-2000 and 2000-2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these "double-declining" cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number "automatically" solve the global problem of land consumption.

  6. Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei-Bin Zhang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

  7. Comparative potential of Rhizobium species for the growth promotion of sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sana Ullah

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Rhizobium besides its nodule formation characteristic with members of Fabaceae family has been recognized for its great root colonizing ability and growth hormone production potential. In addition to nitrogen fixation in legume plants, rhizobia considered as beneficial tools and act as plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR with many non-legumes. Present study was elucidated to determine the comparative role of Rhizbium sp for growth promotion of sunflower. Rhizobia were isolated from five different legumes (mungbean, barseem, lentil, chickpea, and vegetable pea and checked for their auxin production efficiency. Rhizobial isolates Cp-4 showed maximum auxin potential (5.37 µg mL-1IAA equivalents.Results showed that inoculation of all rhizobial isolates caused significant increase in growth and physiological parameters of sunflower plants. While prominent results were found with inoculation of mungbean rhizobial isolate Mb-2 which increases the chlorophyll a, N, P, fresh and dry matter of sunflower significantly by 8.34, 4.9, 36, 31, and 34%, respectively in comparison to un-inoculated control plants. Hence, present study concluded that Rhizobium sp can be successfully used as PGPR in non-legumes after thorough investigations.

  8. Comparative analysis of body weight and serum biochemistry in broilers supplemented with some selected probiotics and antibiotic growth promoters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Md. Iqramul Haque

    2017-09-01

    Results: Body weight in all treatment groups (B, C, D and E was significantly (P<0.05 higher as compared to control (A group. Total cholesterol and triglyceride levels significantly (P<0.05 decreased in probiotics treated groups as compared to control and antibiotic growth promoters treated groups. AST and ALT values increased significantly (P<0.05 in antibiotic growth promoters treated groups as compared to control whereas, these values decreased in probiotics treated groups. Creatinine levels were significantly (P<0.05 higher in antibiotic growth promoters treated groups as compared to all others groups. Conclusion: Significantly increased body weight is observed in probiotics and antibiotic growth promoters supplemented broilers. Probiotics also improve the lipid profile and other biochemical parameters as compared to growth promoter. Probiotics (like Yogurt and Promax® seem to be better choice than antibiotic growth promoters as feed supplements. [J Adv Vet Anim Res 2017; 4(3.000: 288-294

  9. The world energy production, consumption and productivity in the energy sector, population and the per capita growth: Regression analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Josheski, Dushko; Lazarov, Darko; Koteski, Cane; Sovreski, Zlatko

    2011-01-01

    In this paper was investigated the relationship between GDP per capita growth and Log of energy production, energy consumption per capita, the log of productivity in energy sector and population. Data covered sample for 220 countries and world regions, years covered from 1980 to 2002.The results showed that if energy consumption increases by 1% GDP per capita growth will decline by 0,57%, if energy production will rise by 1% growth will rise by 1,51%, if population rise by 1% growth will decl...

  10. Introducing Viewpoints of Mechanics into Basic Growth Analysis (1) : Three Aspects of Growth Mechanics compared with Three Law of Motion

    OpenAIRE

    Shimojo, Masataka; Ikeda, Kentaro; Asano, Yoki; Ishiwaka, Reiko; Sato, Hiroyuki; Nakano, Yutaka; Tobisa, Manabu; Oba, Noriko; Eguchi, Minako; Masuda, Yasuhisa

    2006-01-01

    This study was conducted to analyze growth phenomena by introducing mechanical viewpoints into basic growth analysis. Relating weight (W), absolute growth rate (AGR) and growth acceleration (GA) suggested that (AGR)^2, which was described as the product of W and GA, looked like force involved in the growth of an animal or a plant. This might be due to the resemblance to the second law of Newton’s three laws of motion, where the product of mass and acceleration is related with force to an obje...

  11. The growth and population dynamics of seagrass Thalassia hemprichii in Suli Waters, Ambon Island

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tupan, C. I.; Uneputty, Pr A.

    2017-10-01

    The objectives of the research were to determined growth of rhizome, age structure, recruitment rate, and mortality rate of Thalassia hemprichii. Data were collected by using reconstruction technique which the measurements were based on past growth history. The age of seagrass was based on plastochrone interval. The recruitment rate was estimated by age structure of living shoots while mortality rate was estimated by age structure of dead shoots. The research was conducted on coastal waters of Suli where divided into two stations with different substrates, namely mixed substrates of sand and mud (S1) and mixed substrates of sand and coral fragment (S2). The growth rate of horizontal rhizome ranged from 4.15-8.68 cm.year-1 whereas the growth rate of vertical rhizome was 1.11-1.16 cm.year-1. The average age of T. hemprichii varied between 3.22-4.15 years. The youngest shoots were found at age 0.38 years and the oldest shoots were 7.82 years. Distribution of age was polymodal which reflecting cohort. The recruitment rate ranged from 0.23-0.54 year-1. Otherwise, the mortality rate ranged from 0.21-0.26 year-1.Seagrass population of T. hemprichii in Suli Waters indicated an increasing condition which shown by higher recruitment rate than mortality rate.

  12. Long-term growth of Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) in a southern Nevada population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medica, P.A.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Saethre, Mary B.

    2012-01-01

    Knowledge of growth rates, age at maturity, and longevity are important aspects of a species life history and are directly applicable to life table creation and population viability analyses. We measured the growth of a cohort of 17 semi-wild Desert Tortoises (Gopherus agassizii) located in Rock Valley, Nevada over a 47-yr period beginning in 1963. The tortoises were initially marked as hatchling and juvenile animals between the years 1963 and 1965 and ranged in size from 47 to 77 mm in plastron length. We assigned ages of 1-4 yr to the tortoises at initial capture based on their body size. These tortoises were recaptured, measured, and weighed approximately annually since their initial capture. Growth of male and female tortoises did not differ significantly until animals reached the age of 23-25 yr. Annual tortoise growth was correlated with the production of ephemeral vegetation, while accounting for size, sex, and repeated measurements of the animals as well as the interval between measurements. However, the production of ephemeral plants was likewise highly correlated (non-linearly) with winter rainfall. Stochastic predation events between 2003 and 2007 decimated this cohort of tortoises. The average age of the long-term surviving tortoises from this cohort was 43 yr with a range of 39-47 yr. Twelve of the tortoises survived to the age of 39 yr and 11 of the 12 reached 40 yr.

  13. A Comparative Pathophysiological Study of Normal and Growth Retarded Human Placental Tissue

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Moyosore Afodun

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This study compares the pathophysiology of normal and growth retarded human placental tissues. Female patients were recruited from the Antenatal Clinic of Dolu Specialist Hospital, Mafoluku, Oshodi, Lagos, between 2008 and 2012. A total of 48 normal term placentas and 15 placentas of known IUGR cases were used for this study. IUGR cases were confirmed on the basis of ultrasound follow-up and diagnosis. Normal term placentas were collected at the point of delivery by a consultant gynaecologist, the cords were clamped, and membranes were then carefully trimmed after which each placenta was weighed. About 1 cm thickness of both normal and growth retarded placenta tissues was cut, processed for hematoxylin and eosin stain, while tissues for enzyme (ALP assay were homogenized in cold 0.5 M sucrose solution. Comparative analysis of the data was done using ANOVA; P<0.05 was taken as significant. The photomicrographs were observed/studied under light microscope, using the X150 and X600 magnifications. It was revealed therein that placental tissues are homogenous (regionally, compromised of maternal spiral arterioles and deregulated villous vasculogenesis, and that there is a significant difference in the level of alkaline phosphatase enzyme. We therefore concluded that there is a distinct difference between the normal and growth retarded human placenta tissue.

  14. COMPARING LUNG FUNCTION OF TEXTILE WORKERS WITH THE HEALTHY PAKISTANI POPULATION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabbani, Unaib; Nafees, Asaad Ahmed

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare lung function of textile workers with healthy Pakistani population, compare predicted values based on the European Respiratory Society (ERS) equations with those based on the Pakistani equations, and to develop predictor equations for textile workers in Pakistan. This was a secondary analysis of data from two previous surveys where lung function of textile workers was compared with healthy Pakistani men. Spirometry was performed according to the American Thoracic Society guidelines. Independent sample t-test was used to compare the lung function parameters and multivariate linear regression was used to develop predictor equations. There were significant differences in lung function of textile workers (FVC: 4.1 L, FEV1: 3.3 L and FEV1/FVC: 0.8) compared to healthy Pakistani men (FVC: 3.9 L, FEV1: 4.1 L and FEV1/FVC: 1.04). ERS reference equations tended to under-diagnose abnormal lung function, 16.9% versus 25.3% (ptextile workers were also developed. Lung function of textile workers was significantly reduced compared to healthy population. Use of ERS reference equations for Pakistani textile workers may not provide appropriate interpretation.

  15. Prevalence of Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutations in Patients with Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer in Turkish Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Güler Tezel, Gaye; Şener, Ebru; Aydın, Çisel; Önder, Sevgen

    2017-12-01

    Epidermal growth factor receptor mutation analysis in non-small cell lung cancer is important for selecting patients who will receive treatment with tyrosine kinase inhibitors. In this study, we aimed to investigate the prevalence of epidermal growth factor receptor mutations and mutation patterns in the Turkish population. We retrospectively reviewed molecular pathology reports of 959 cases with lung cancer analysed for epidermal growth factor receptor mutations. We analysed all four epidermal growth factor receptor exon mutations using a real-time polymerase chain reaction platform. In this study, the epidermal growth factor receptor mutation rate in the Turkish population was 16.7% (160 of 959). The epidermal growth factor receptor mutation frequency was significantly higher in women (37.1%, n=96) than in men (9.1%, n=64) (pmutation rate was higher in the adenocarcinoma histologic type (pmutations were older than those without mutations (p=0.003). The most frequent mutations were exon 19 deletions (48.8%, 78/160) and exon 21 L858R point mutations (38.1.1%, 61/160). We also detected compound mutation patterns in three cases (1.9%). The prevalence of epidermal growth factor receptor mutations in the Turkish population was slightly higher than that in the Caucasian population and lower than that in the East Asian population. The results of this study may provide guidance in personalized therapy of non-small cell lung cancer in the Turkish population.

  16. Insulin-like growth factor I and anthropometric parameters in a Danish population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friedrich, N; Jørgensen, Torben; Juul, A

    2012-01-01

    During the last decade several studies indicated that low insulin-like growth factor (IGF) I levels are related to higher risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Obesity represents one further main cardiovascular risk factor which might also be related to IGF-I. The objective of the present...... study was to analyse the associations between anthropometric measures and IGF-I levels in a population-based sample. From the Danish cross-sectional Health2006 study 3,328 subjects (1,835 women; 1,493 men) aged 19-72 years were included in the analyses. Serum IGF-I levels were determined...

  17. Transforming growth factor-β signaling is constantly shaping memory T-cell population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Chaoyu; Zhang, Nu

    2015-09-01

    The long-term maintenance of memory T cells is essential for successful vaccines. Both the quantity and the quality of the memory T-cell population must be maintained. The signals that control the maintenance of memory T cells remain incompletely identified. Here we used two genetic models to show that continuous transforming growth factor-β signaling to antigen-specific T cells is required for the differentiation and maintenance of memory CD8(+) T cells. In addition, both infection-induced and microbiota-induced inflammation impact the phenotypic and functional identity of memory CD8(+) T cells.

  18. Not all built the same? A comparative study of electoral systems and population health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, Andrew C

    2017-09-01

    Much literature depicts a worldwide democratic advantage in population health. However, less research compares health outcomes in the different kinds of democracy or autocracy. In an examination of 179 countries as they existed between 1975 and 2012, advantages in life expectancy and infant health appear most reliably for democracies that include the principle of proportional representation in their electoral rules. Compared to closed autocracies, they had up to 12 or more years of life expectancy on average, 75% less infant mortality, and double the savings in overall mortality for most other age groups. Majoritarian democracies, in contrast, did not experience longitudinal improvements in health relative to closed autocracies. Instead their population health appeared to be on par with or even superseded by competitive autocracies in most models. Findings suggest that the principle of proportional representation may be good for health at the national level. Implications and limitations are discussed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Comparative population genomics: power and principles for the inference of functionality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrie, David S; Petrov, Dmitri A

    2014-04-01

    The availability of sequenced genomes from multiple related organisms allows the detection and localization of functional genomic elements based on the idea that such elements evolve more slowly than neutral sequences. Although such comparative genomics methods have proven useful in discovering functional elements and ascertaining levels of functional constraint in the genome as a whole, here we outline limitations intrinsic to this approach that cannot be overcome by sequencing more species. We argue that it is essential to supplement comparative genomics with ultra-deep sampling of populations from closely related species to enable substantially more powerful genomic scans for functional elements. The convergence of sequencing technology and population genetics theory has made such projects feasible and has exciting implications for functional genomics. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Local environment and density-dependent feedbacks determine population growth in a forest herb

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Östergård, Hannah; Ehrlén, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Linking spatial variation in environmental factors to variation in demographic rates is essential for a mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations. However, we still know relatively little about such links, partly because feedbacks via intraspecific density make them difficult...... to observe in natural populations. We conducted a detailed field study and investigated simultaneous effects of environmental factors and the intraspecific density of individuals on the demography of the herb Lathyrus vernus. In regression models of vital rates we identified effects associated with spring...... shade on survival and growth, while density was negatively correlated with these vital rates. Density was also negatively correlated with average individual size in the study plots, which is consistent with self-thinning. In addition, average plant sizes were larger than predicted by density in plots...

  1. Climate change and population growth in Timor Leste: implications for food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molyneux, Nicholas; da Cruz, Gil Rangel; Williams, Robert L; Andersen, Rebecca; Turner, Neil C

    2012-12-01

    The climate in Timor Leste (East Timor) is predicted to become about 1.5 °C warmer and about 10 % wetter on average by 2050. By the same year, the population is expected to triple from 1 to 2.5-3 million. This article maps the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall and reviews the implications of climate change and population growth on agricultural systems. Improved cultivars of maize, rice, cassava, sweet potato and peanuts with high yield performance have been introduced, but these will need to be augmented in the future with better adapted cultivars and new crops, such as food and fodder legumes and new management practices. The requirements for fertilizers to boost yields and terracing and/or contour hedgerows to prevent soil erosion of steeply sloping terrain are discussed. Contour hedges can also be used for fodder for improved animal production to provide protein to reduce malnutrition.

  2. Comparative effectiveness of different Rhizobium sp. for improving growth and yield of maize (Zea mays L.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ijaz Mehboob, Zahir Ahmad Zahir, Muhammad Arshad, Muhammad Khalid

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available During the last couple of decades, it has been demonstrated that rhizobia can associate with roots of non-legumes also without forming true nodules, and can promote their growth by using one or more of the direct or indirect mechanisms of actions. This work examines the growth and yield responses of maize to inoculation with different species of rhizobia, isolated from the root nodules of chickpea (Cicer arietinum L., lentil (Lens culinaris M. and mung bean (Vigna radiata L. in pots and fields. Twenty isolates of rhizobia were isolated from root nodules each of mung bean, lentil and chickpea and were screened under axenic conditions. On the basis of their promising performance under axenic conditions, nine most efficient isolates (three from each legume host were selected, characterized and further evaluated for their growth promoting activities by conducting pot and field experiments. Results of pot experiment revealed that maximum increase in grain yield, 1000 grain weight, N, P and K uptake (up to 47.89, 54.52, 73.46, 84.66 and 59.19% by CRI28, respectively, over un-inoculated control was produced by the isolate of Mesorhizobium ciceri. Whereas, maximum improvement in rest of the parameters was caused by the isolates of Rhizobium phaseoli (i.e. fresh biomass, straw yield and root length up to 36.30% by A18, 25.46% by S6 and 81.89% by A18, respectively over un-inoculated control. Rhizobium leguminosarum isolates came out to be the least effective among the species tested. Similarly, all the selected isolates improved the growth and yield attributing parameters in fields as well but with varying capacity compared with un-inoculated control. The selected isolates of Mesorhizobium ciceri and Rhizobium phaseoli again remained superior compared to the isolates of Rhizobium leguminosarum under field conditions. The results of this study imply that rhizobium species had potential to promote growth and yield of maize but this technology should be

  3. Comparative pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of a PEGylated recombinant human growth hormone and daily recombinant human growth hormone in growth hormone-deficient children

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hou L

    2015-12-01

    slower than that of sc rhGH. No progressive serum accumulation of Jintrolong® was found. The changes in insulin-like growth factor-1 expression produced by rhGH and Jintrolong® were comparable, indicating similar pharmacodynamics. Our results demonstrate that Jintrolong® is suitable for long-term growth hormone treatment in children with growth hormone deficiency. Keywords: long-acting growth hormone, phase I, multiple-dose

  4. Comparative studies of thin film growth on aluminium by AFM, TEM and GDOES characterization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qi, Jiantao, E-mail: alexanderinmanchester@gmail.com; Thompson, George E.

    2016-07-30

    Highlights: • Coating initiation was evidenced after conversion treatment for only 30 s and the uniform cross section revealed a chemical deposition process of electrolyte anions on aluminium. • A proceeding process of aluminium dissolution during conversion treatment was found for the first time, indicating non-inhibitive kinetics of anodic reactions. • Coating growth on aluminium was determined by the availability of electrolyte anions and the prolonged conversion treatment crated a significant concentration gradient to limit growth. • Coating shrinkage either in the microscope or after post-coating treatment in the air was clarified, especially for the coating after prolonged conversion treatments. - Abstract: In this present study, comparative studies of trivalent chromium conversion coating formation, associated with aluminium dissolution process, have been investigated using atomic force microscopy (AFM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM) and glow-discharge optical emission spectroscopy (GDOES). High-resolution electron micrographs revealed the evident and uniform coating initiation on the whole surface after conversion treatment for only 30 s, although a network of metal ridges was created by HF etching pre-treatment. In terms of conversion treatment process on electropolished aluminium, constant kinetics of coating growth, ∼0.30 ± 0.2 nm/s, were found after the prolonged conversion treatment for 600 s. The availability of electrolyte anions for coating deposition determined the growth process. Simultaneously, a proceeding process of aluminium dissolution during conversion treatment, of ∼0.11 ± 0.02 nm/s, was found for the first time, indicating constant kinetics of anodic reactions. The distinct process of aluminium consumption was assigned with loss of corrosion protection of the deposited coating material as evidenced in the electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Based on the present data, a new mechanism of coating growth on aluminium

  5. Population growth and development in the Third World: the neocolonial context.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patterson, J G; Shrestha, N R

    1988-01-01

    Less developed countries (LDCs) that were colonies of other nations continued operating under the same social and political structures set up by the former ruling nations. The small minority of elites in the LDCs held on to the power acquired during colonial times. In order to preserve their political and financial status after independence, they maintained their close linkages to the capitalist nations and their multinational corporations (MNCs). The elites did not generally have popular support, however. These capitalist nations and their commercial interests continue to dictate most LDCs development process which supports the financial interests of the MNCs and the local elites and not those of the majority, the poor. The poor realize that they are trapped and unable to break away from the economic and political structures, therefore, to assure some form of security, they have many children which exacerbates their poverty. Yet population control policies based on Malthusian theory and those that rely on such undimensional, technical approaches as family planning alone cannot cure the multidimensional social problems of high population growth and poverty. Neither the Malthusian nor Marxist theories totally explain the situation in the LDCs or even provide workable solutions. Research on population and development in LDCs needs to address both the Malthusian concern for the problems posed by high growth rates and the Marxist critique of class struggle in development trends. To eliminate the trap of poverty and dependent economies, each country must design its own remedies based on its history, culture, and geography and alter the prevailing social, economic, and political power structures in favor of the poor. 6 propositions that must be modified to each nation's particular problems and needs are presented to guide LDCs in formulating or reformulating policies to alleviate the problems of population and poverty.

  6. Slower CCN growth kinetics of anthropogenic aerosol compared to biogenic aerosol observed at a rural site

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. C. Shantz

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Growth rates of water droplets were measured with a static diffusion cloud condensation chamber in May–June 2007 at a rural field site in Southern Ontario, Canada, 70 km north of Toronto. The observations include periods when the winds were from the south and the site was impacted by anthropogenic air from the U.S. and Southern Ontario as well as during a 5-day period of northerly wind flow when the aerosol was dominated by biogenic sources. The growth of droplets on anthropogenic size-selected particles centred at 0.1 μm diameter and composed of approximately 40% organic and 60% ammonium sulphate (AS by mass, was delayed by on the order of 1 s compared to a pure AS aerosol. Simulations of the growth rate on monodisperse particles indicate that a lowering of the water mass accommodation coefficient from αc=1 to an average of αc=0.04 is needed (assuming an insoluble organic with hygroscopicity parameter, κorg, of zero. Simulations of the initial growth rate on polydisperse anthropogenic particles agree best with observations for αc=0.07. In contrast, the growth rate of droplets on size-selected aerosol of biogenic character, consisting of >80% organic, was similar to that of pure AS. Simulations of the predominantly biogenic polydisperse aerosol show agreement between the observations and simulations when κorg=0.2 (with upper and lower limits of 0.5 and 0.07, respectively and αc=1. Inhibition of water uptake by the anthropogenic organic applied to an adiabatic cloud parcel model in the form of a constant low αc increases the number of droplets in a cloud compared to pure AS. If the αc is assumed to increase with increasing liquid water on the droplets, then the number of droplets decreases which could diminish the indirect climate forcing effect. The slightly lower κorg in the biogenic case

  7. Analyzing dendritic growth in a population of immature neurons in the adult dentate gyrus using laminar quantification of disjointed dendrites

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shira eRosenzweig

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available In the dentate gyrus of the hippocampus, new granule neurons are continuously produced throughout adult life. A prerequisite for the successful synaptic integration of these neurons is the sprouting and extension of dendrites into the molecular layer of the dentate gyrus. Thus, studies aimed at investigating the developmental stages of adult neurogenesis often use dendritic growth as an important indicator of neuronal health and maturity. Based on the known topography of the dentate gyrus, characterized by distinct laminar arrangement of granule neurons and their extensions, we have developed a new method for analysis of dendritic growth in immature adult-born granule neurons. The method is comprised of laminar quantification of cell bodies, primary, secondary and tertiary dendrites separately and independently from each other. In contrast to most existing methods, laminar quantification of dendrites does not require the use of exogenous markers and does not involve arbitrary selection of individual neurons. The new method relies on immonuhistochemical detection of endogenous markers such as doublecortin to perform a comprehensive analysis of a sub-population of immature neurons. Disjointed, orphan dendrites that often appear in the thin histological sections are taken into account. Using several experimental groups of rats and mice, we demonstrate here the suitable techniques for quantifying neurons and dendrites, and explain how the ratios between the quantified values can be used in a comparative analysis to indicate variations in dendritic growth and complexity.

  8. Language growth in children with heterogeneous language disorders: a population study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Norbury, Courtenay Frazier; Vamvakas, George; Gooch, Debbie; Baird, Gillian; Charman, Tony; Simonoff, Emily; Pickles, Andrew

    2017-10-01

    Language development has been characterised by significant individual stability from school entry. However, the extent to which trajectories of language growth vary in children with language disorder as a function of co-occurring developmental challenges is a question of theoretical import, with implications for service provision. SCALES employed a population-based survey design with sample weighting procedures to estimate growth in core language skills over the first three years of school. A stratified sample (n = 529) received comprehensive assessment of language, nonverbal IQ, and social, emotional and behavioural difficulties at 5-6 years of age and 95% of the sample (n = 499) were assessed again at ages 7-8. Language growth was measured using both raw and standard scores in children with typical development, children with language disorder of unknown origin, and children with language disorders associated with a known clinical condition and/or intellectual disability. Overall, language was stable at the individual level (estimated ICC = 0.95) over the first three years of school. Linear mixed effects models highlighted steady growth in language raw scores across all three groups, including those with multiple developmental challenges. There was little evidence, however, that children with language disorders were narrowing the gap with peers (z-scores). Adjusted models indicated that while nonverbal ability, socioeconomic status and social, emotional and behavioural deficits predicted initial language score (intercept), none predicted language growth (slope). These findings corroborate previous studies suggesting stable language trajectories after ages 5-6 years, but add considerably to previous work by demonstrating similar developmental patterns in children with additional nonverbal cognitive deficits, social, emotional, and behavioural challenges, social disadvantage or clinical diagnoses. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Child Psychology and

  9. Ethnic differences in fetal size and growth in a multi-ethnic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sletner, Line; Rasmussen, Svein; Jenum, Anne Karen; Nakstad, Britt; Jensen, Odd Harald Rognerud; Vangen, Siri

    2015-09-01

    Impaired or excessive fetal growth is associated with adverse short- and long-term health outcomes that differ between ethnic groups. We explored ethnic differences in fetal size and growth from mid pregnancy until birth. Data are from the multi-ethnic STORK-Groruddalen study, a population-based, prospective cohort of 823 pregnant women and their offspring in Oslo, Norway. Measures were z-scores of estimated fetal weight (EFW), head circumference (HC), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL), in gestational week 24, 32 and 37, measured by ultrasound, and similar measures at birth. Differences in fetal size and growth were assessed using separate Linear Mixed Models including all four time points, with ethnic Europeans as reference. In week 24 South Asian fetuses had smaller AC, but larger FL than Europeans, and slightly lower EFW (-0.17 SD (-0.33, -0.01), p=0.04). Middle East/North African fetuses also had larger FL, but similar AC, and hence slightly higher EFW (0.18 (0.003, 0.36), p=0.05). Both groups had slower growth of AC, FL and EFW from this time until birth, and had -0.61 SD (-0.73, -0.49) and -0.28 SD (-0.41, -0.15) lower birth weight respectively. Ethnic East Asians, on the other hand, were smaller throughout pregnancy and had -0.58 SD (-0.82, -0.34) lower birth weight. Significant ethnic differences remained after adjusting for maternal factors. We observed ethnic differences in fetal size and body proportions already in gestational week 24, and in fetal growth from this time until birth, which were only partly explained by key maternal factors. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. A method for analyzing changing prison populations: explaining the growth of the elderly in prison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luallen, Jeremy; Kling, Ryan

    2014-12-01

    For the past several decades, the U.S. prison system has witnessed a steady and persistent increase in the ages of prison populations. Given the additional costs and burdens placed on prisons as they house older inmates, this aging trend has generated intense interest among policy makers and academics who seek to understand why prison populations are getting older. This article presents a method for evaluating drivers influencing the change in age distributions among prisoners. We define a methodological approach and demonstrate its application using prison data from four states reporting to the Bureau of Justice Statistics' National Corrections Reporting Program. We find that since 2000, the primary driver of overall growth in the elderly populations in prison (defined as inmates over 50) is the increasing admission age of offenders entering prison. Moreover, changes in offense mix and sentence length/time served over the last decade have had significantly less influence on the age composition of prison populations. We also find that the impact of explanatory factors varies across states and offense types. For example, prison admission and exit rates explain much of the change in elderly drug offenders in New York, but not elderly violent offenders, where admission age plays a much stronger explanatory role. Our analysis offers an effective demonstration that supports the use of this method as an important and informative first step toward understanding components of change that affect the problem of prison aging. © The Author(s) 2014.

  11. The uncertainty of future water supply adequacy in megacities: Effects of population growth and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alarcon, T.; Garcia, M. E.; Small, D. L.; Portney, K.; Islam, S.

    2013-12-01

    Providing water to the expanding population of megacities, which have over 10 million people, with a stressed and aging water infrastructure creates unprecedented challenges. These challenges are exacerbated by dwindling supply and competing demands, altered precipitation and runoff patterns in a changing climate, fragmented water utility business models, and changing consumer behavior. While there is an extensive literature on the effects of climate change on water resources, the uncertainty of climate change predictions continues to be high. This hinders the value of these predictions for municipal water supply planning. The ability of water utilities to meet future water needs will largely depend on their capacity to make decisions under uncertainty. Water stressors, like changes in demographics, climate, and socioeconomic patterns, have varying degrees of uncertainty. Identifying which stressors will have a greater impact on water resources, may reduce the level of future uncertainty for planning and managing water utilities. Within this context, we analyze historical and projected changes of population and climate to quantify the relative impacts of these two stressors on water resources. We focus on megacities that rely primarily on surface water resources to evaluate (a) population growth pattern from 1950-2010 and projected population for 2010-2060; (b) climate change impact on projected climate change scenarios for 2010-2060; and (c) water access for 1950-2010; projected needs for 2010-2060.

  12. In the national interest: the PCSD puts population growth back on the agenda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, B

    1995-01-01

    In 1972, President Nixon launched the Rockefeller Commission on Population Growth and the American Future. The US population has grown by more than 50 million people since 1972. In 1995, a report by the President's Council on Sustainable Development (PCSD) states that failure on the part of the US to stabilize its population will jeopardize any effort to achieve sustainable development. As a follow-up to the Earth Summit, President Clinton established the PCSD in 1993 to identify ways to encourage sustainable development in the US. The Council has 25 members representing government, business, and public interest organizations and has 8 critical issues task forces, including Energy, Transportation, Sustainable Community, Education and Outreach, Natural Resources, Eco Efficiency and Sustainable Agriculture. Timothy Wirth, Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs, spearheaded efforts to create a task force on the twin issues of population and consumption. The Population and Consumption Task Force, which began its official discussions in the spring of 1994, aimed to solicit public comment on critical population-related issues. These meetings sought both general public and expert participation on subjects such as teen pregnancy, resource use, and economic indicators. Among these recommendations are improving access to family planning services for all Americans; focusing on special efforts to reduce teen pregnancy and childbearing; improving external factors such as poverty and a lack of economic opportunities for girls and women; and reducing immigration to the US. A combination of actions are needed, including a tax shift from labor and earnings to natural resource use; development of environmentally sound technologies; and public understanding of the importance of sustainable life style and consumption choices. Individual and community action is crucial since the current Congress is unlikely to adopt policies to promote sustainable development without significant

  13. Stochastic stable population growth in integral projection models: theory and application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellner, Stephen P; Rees, Mark

    2007-02-01

    Stochastic matrix projection models are widely used to model age- or stage-structured populations with vital rates that fluctuate randomly over time. Practical applications of these models rest on qualitative properties such as the existence of a long term population growth rate, asymptotic log-normality of total population size, and weak ergodicity of population structure. We show here that these properties are shared by a general stochastic integral projection model, by using results in (Eveson in D. Phil. Thesis, University of Sussex, 1991, Eveson in Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. 70, 411-440, 1993) to extend the approach in (Lange and Holmes in J. Appl. Prob. 18, 325-344, 1981). Integral projection models allow individuals to be cross-classified by multiple attributes, either discrete or continuous, and allow the classification to change during the life cycle. These features are present in plant populations with size and age as important predictors of individual fate, populations with a persistent bank of dormant seeds or eggs, and animal species with complex life cycles. We also present a case-study based on a 6-year field study of the Illyrian thistle, Onopordum illyricum, to demonstrate how easily a stochastic integral model can be parameterized from field data and then applied using familiar matrix software and methods. Thistle demography is affected by multiple traits (size, age and a latent "quality" variable), which would be difficult to accommodate in a classical matrix model. We use the model to explore the evolution of size- and age-dependent flowering using an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) approach. We find close agreement between the observed flowering behavior and the predicted ESS from the stochastic model, whereas the ESS predicted from a deterministic version of the model is very different from observed flowering behavior. These results strongly suggest that the flowering strategy in O. illyricum is an adaptation to random between-year variation

  14. Fractures in indigenous compared to non-indigenous populations: A systematic review of rates and aetiology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brennan-Olsen, Sharon L; Vogrin, Sara; Leslie, William D; Kinsella, Rita; Toombs, Maree; Duque, Gustavo; Hosking, Sarah M; Holloway, Kara L; Doolan, Brianna J; Williams, Lana J; Page, Richard S; Pasco, Julie A; Quirk, Shae E

    2017-06-01

    Compared to non-indigenous populations, indigenous populations experience disproportionately greater morbidity, and a reduced life expectancy; however, conflicting data exist regarding whether a higher risk of fracture is experienced by either population. We systematically evaluate evidence for whether differences in fracture rates at any skeletal site exist between indigenous and non-indigenous populations of any age, and to identify potential risk factors that might explain these differences. On 31 August 2016 we conducted a comprehensive computer-aided search of peer-reviewed literature without date limits. We searched PubMed, OVID, MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, and reference lists of relevant publications. The protocol for this systematic review is registered in PROSPERO, the International Prospective Register of systematic reviews (CRD42016043215). Using the World Health Organization reference population as standard, hip fracture incidence rates were re-standardized for comparability between countries. Our search yielded 3227 articles; 283 potentially eligible articles were cross-referenced against predetermined criteria, leaving 27 articles for final inclusion. Differences in hip fracture rates appeared as continent-specific, with lower rates observed for indigenous persons in all countries except for Canada and Australia where the opposite was observed. Indigenous persons consistently had higher rates of trauma-related fractures; the highest were observed in Australia where craniofacial fracture rates were 22-times greater for indigenous compared to non-indigenous women. After adjustment for socio-demographic and clinical risk factors, approximately a three-fold greater risk of osteoporotic fracture and five-fold greater risk of craniofacial fractures was observed for indigenous compared to non-indigenous persons; diabetes, substance abuse, comorbidity, lower income, locality, and fracture history were independently associated with an increased risk of fracture

  15. Comparative transcriptomics of the saprobic and parasitic growth phases in Coccidioides spp.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emily Whiston

    Full Text Available Coccidioides immitis and C. posadasii, the causative agents of coccidioidomycosis, are dimorphic fungal pathogens, which grow as hyphae in the saprobic phase in the environment and as spherules in the parasitic phase in the mammalian host. In this study, we use comparative transcriptomics to identify gene expression differences between the saprobic and parasitic growth phases. We prepared Illumina mRNA sequencing libraries for saprobic-phase hyphae and parasitic-phase spherules in vitro for C. immitis isolate RS and C. posadasii isolate C735 in biological triplicate. Of 9,910 total predicted genes in Coccidioides, we observed 1,298 genes up-regulated in the saprobic phase of both C. immitis and C. posadasii and 1,880 genes up-regulated in the parasitic phase of both species. Comparing the saprobic and parasitic growth phases, we observed considerable differential expression of cell surface-associated genes, particularly chitin-related genes. We also observed differential expression of several virulence factors previously identified in Coccidioides and other dimorphic fungal pathogens. These included alpha (1,3 glucan synthase, SOWgp, and several genes in the urease pathway. Furthermore, we observed differential expression in many genes predicted to be under positive selection in two recent Coccidioides comparative genomics studies. These results highlight a number of genes that may be crucial to dimorphic phase-switching and virulence in Coccidioides. These observations will impact priorities for future genetics-based studies in Coccidioides and provide context for studies in other fungal pathogens.

  16. Comparative transcriptomics of the saprobic and parasitic growth phases in Coccidioides spp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Whiston, Emily; Zhang Wise, Hua; Sharpton, Thomas J; Jui, Ginger; Cole, Garry T; Taylor, John W

    2012-01-01

    Coccidioides immitis and C. posadasii, the causative agents of coccidioidomycosis, are dimorphic fungal pathogens, which grow as hyphae in the saprobic phase in the environment and as spherules in the parasitic phase in the mammalian host. In this study, we use comparative transcriptomics to identify gene expression differences between the saprobic and parasitic growth phases. We prepared Illumina mRNA sequencing libraries for saprobic-phase hyphae and parasitic-phase spherules in vitro for C. immitis isolate RS and C. posadasii isolate C735 in biological triplicate. Of 9,910 total predicted genes in Coccidioides, we observed 1,298 genes up-regulated in the saprobic phase of both C. immitis and C. posadasii and 1,880 genes up-regulated in the parasitic phase of both species. Comparing the saprobic and parasitic growth phases, we observed considerable differential expression of cell surface-associated genes, particularly chitin-related genes. We also observed differential expression of several virulence factors previously identified in Coccidioides and other dimorphic fungal pathogens. These included alpha (1,3) glucan synthase, SOWgp, and several genes in the urease pathway. Furthermore, we observed differential expression in many genes predicted to be under positive selection in two recent Coccidioides comparative genomics studies. These results highlight a number of genes that may be crucial to dimorphic phase-switching and virulence in Coccidioides. These observations will impact priorities for future genetics-based studies in Coccidioides and provide context for studies in other fungal pathogens.

  17. The effects of stochasticity at the single-cell level and cell size control on the population growth

    OpenAIRE

    Lin, Jie; Amir, Ariel

    2016-01-01

    Establishing a quantitative connection between the population growth rate and the generation times of single cells is a prerequisite for understanding evolutionary dynamics of microbes. However, existing theories fail to account for the experimentally observed correlations between mother-daughter generation times that are unavoidable when cell size is controlled for - which is essentially always the case. Here, we study population-level growth in the presence of cell size control and corrobor...

  18. Effects of salinity on growth and survival in five Artemia franciscana (Anostraca: Artemiidae populations from Mexico Pacific Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jorge Castro-Mejía

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Salinity is an important factor influencing growth and survival of aquatic organisms such as Artemia, a valuable aquaculture species. This study evaluated the effects of salinity on A. franciscana populations from different water bodies in Mexico’s Pacific Coast. With this purpose, five autochthonous bisexual Artemia populations were tested to assess their survival and growth values against salinities of 40, 60, 80, 100 and 120g/l, under laboratory conditions (25±2ºC; pH 8-10; constant light and aeration. The organisms were fed with 100mL of rice bran and 2L of Tetraselmis suecica (500 000cel/ml. The culture experiments were made in 200L plastic tanks, and survival and growth final values were obtained after 21 culture days. Survival and growth curves were determined by a regression analysis (R². The significant differences between salinities were determined by ANOVA test (p<0.05. The best survival and growth rates were found at salinities of 100-120g/l. When the Mexican Artemia populations were cultivated at 40g/l of salinity, 100% mortality was observed in the juvenile stage. This study determined that survival and growth values of A. franciscana populations increased with salinity. The five A. franciscana populations presented significant differences in their survival rate under various salinity regimes. The studied populations experienced high mortality at salinities under 60g/l and over 200g/l, and especially during the metanauplius stage. The present study confirms that growth rates in Mexican A. franciscana populations from Pacific Coast habitats are not inversely proportional to salinity. These A. franciscana populations should be cultured at 100-120g/l of salinity to obtain better survival and growth rates. This data is useful to improve culture systems in aquaculture biomass production systems. Rev. Biol. Trop. 59 (1: 199-206. Epub 2011 March 01.

  19. Metabolic syndrome in bipolar disorder and schizophrenia: dietary and lifestyle factors compared to the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bly, Michael J; Taylor, Stephan F; Dalack, Gregory; Pop-Busui, Rodica; Burghardt, Kyle J; Evans, Simon J; McInnis, Melvin I; Grove, Tyler B; Brook, Robert D; Zöllner, Sebastian K; Ellingrod, Vicki L

    2014-05-01

    Since a poor diet is often cited as a contributor to metabolic syndrome for subjects diagnosed with bipolar disorder and schizophrenia, we sought to examine dietary intake, cigarette smoking, and physical activity in these populations and compare them with those for the general population. Individuals diagnosed with bipolar disorder (n = 116) and schizophrenia (n = 143) were assessed for dietary intake, lifestyle habits, and metabolic syndrome and compared to age-, gender-, and race-matched subjects from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2000. Additionally, matched subgroups within the patient populations were compared to elicit any differences. As expected, the metabolic syndrome rate was higher in the samples with bipolar disorder (33%) and schizophrenia (47%) compared to matched NHANES controls (17% and 11%, respectively), and not different between the patient groups. Surprisingly, both subjects with bipolar disorder and those with schizophrenia consumed fewer total calories, carbohydrates and fats, as well as more fiber (p schizophrenia had significantly lower total and low-density cholesterol levels (p disorder smoked less (p = 0.001), exercised more (p = 0.004), and had lower body mass indexes (p = 0.009) compared to subjects with schizophrenia. Counter to predictions, few dietary differences could be discerned between schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and NHANES control groups. The subjects with bipolar disorder exhibited healthier behaviors than the patients with schizophrenia. Additional research regarding metabolic syndrome mechanisms, focusing on non-dietary contributions, is needed. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  20. Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Tanya L; Lwetoijera, Dickson W; Knols, Bart G J; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F; Ferguson, Heather M

    2011-10-22

    Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAIC(c) support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness.

  1. Characterization of Saccharomyces cerevisiae natural populations for pseudohyphal growth and colony morphology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casalone, Enrico; Barberio, Claudia; Cappellini, Lorenzo; Polsinelli, Mario

    2005-03-01

    In this work we have analyzed the colony and cellular morphologies of natural populations of Saccharomyces cerevisiae strains in response to different environmental stimuli. Among one thousand strains grown on YPD medium, 2.5% exhibited a rough (R) colony phenotype versus a smooth (S) phenotype. When grown on the ammonium-deficient medium SLAD, 56% of the strains showed a filamentous phenotype, often associated (43.8%) with an invasive phenotype, while 4.7% of the strains exhibited only an invasive phenotype. The rough phenotype on YPD was always associated with the filamentous phenotype on SLAD. A subset of 52 strains was further characterized for the growth phenotype under different stimuli (nitrogen deprivation, addition of alcohols, growth on proline as sole nitrogen source). On 27 strains, genetic analysis of the spore products was also performed. The entire set of data showed a wide distribution of dimorphism in the yeast population and great variability with respect to the dimorphic switch capability. Some strains grew with peculiar colony morphologies under different environmental stimuli and some showed colony morphology variations. Ecological implications of the wide spreading of dimorphic behavior and the occurrence of peculiar colony morphologies in natural yeasts are discussed.

  2. Spiking, Bursting, and Population Dynamics in a Network of Growth Transform Neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gangopadhyay, Ahana; Chakrabartty, Shantanu

    2017-04-27

    This paper investigates the dynamical properties of a network of neurons, each of which implements an asynchronous mapping based on polynomial growth transforms. In the first part of this paper, we present a geometric approach for visualizing the dynamics of the network where each of the neurons traverses a trajectory in a dual optimization space, whereas the network itself traverses a trajectory in an equivalent primal optimization space. We show that as the network learns to solve basic classification tasks, different choices of primal-dual mapping produce unique but interpretable neural dynamics like noise shaping, spiking, and bursting. While the proposed framework is general enough, in this paper, we demonstrate its use for designing support vector machines (SVMs) that exhibit noise-shaping properties similar to those of ΣΔ modulators, and for designing SVMs that learn to encode information using spikes and bursts. It is demonstrated that the emergent switching, spiking, and burst dynamics produced by each neuron encodes its respective margin of separation from a classification hyperplane whose parameters are encoded by the network population dynamics. We believe that the proposed growth transform neuron model and the underlying geometric framework could serve as an important tool to connect well-established machine learning algorithms like SVMs to neuromorphic principles like spiking, bursting, population encoding, and noise shaping.

  3. Comparative rice seed toxicity tests using filter paper, growth pouch-tm, and seed tray methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, W.

    1993-01-01

    Paper substrate, especially circular filter paper placed inside a Petri dish, has long been used for the plant seed toxicity test (PSTT). Although this method is simple and inexpensive, recent evidence indicates that it gives results that are significantly different from those obtained using a method that does not involve paper, especially when testing metal cations. The study compared PSTT using three methods: filter paper, Growth Pouch-TM, and seed tray. The Growth Pouch-TM is a commercially available device. The seed tray is a newly designed plastic receptacle placed inside a Petri dish. The results of the Growth Pouch-TM method showed no toxic effects on rice for Ag up to 40 mg L-1 and Cd up to 20 mg L-1. Using the seed tray method, IC50 (50% inhibitory effect concentration) values were 0.55 and 1.4 mg L-1 for Ag and Cd, respectively. Although results of filter paper and seed tray methods were nearly identical for NaF, Cr(VI), and phenol, the toxicities of cations Ag and Cd were reduced by using the filter paper method; IC50 values were 22 and 18 mg L-1, respectively. The results clearly indicate that paper substrate is not advisable for PSTT.

  4. Customised versus population-based growth charts as a screening tool for detecting small for gestational age infants in low-risk pregnant women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carberry, Angela E; Gordon, Adrienne; Bond, Diana M; Hyett, Jon; Raynes-Greenow, Camille H; Jeffery, Heather E

    2014-05-16

    Fetal growth restriction is defined as failure to reach growth potential and considered one of the major complications of pregnancy. These infants are often, although not universally, small for gestational age (SGA). SGA is defined as a weight less than a specified percentile (usually the 10th percentile). Identification of SGA infants is important because these infants are at increased risk of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Screening for SGA is a challenge for all maternity care providers and current methods of clinical assessment fail to detect many infants who are SGA. Large observational studies suggest that customised growth charts may be better able to differentiate between constitutional and pathologic smallness. Customised charts adjust for physiological variables such as maternal weight and height, ethnicity and parity. To assess the benefits and harms of using population-based growth charts compared with customised growth charts as a screening tool for detection of fetal growth in pregnant women. We searched the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group's Trials Register (12 March 2014), reviewed published guidelines and searched the reference lists of review articles. Randomised, quasi-randomised or cluster-randomised clinical trials comparing customised versus population-based growth charts used as a screening tool for detection of fetal growth in pregnant women. Two review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion. No randomised trials met the inclusion criteria. There is no randomised trial evidence currently available. Further randomised trials are required to accurately assess whether the improvement in detection shown is secondary to customised charts alone or an effect of the policy change. Future research in large trials is needed to investigate the benefits and harms (including perinatal mortality) of using customised growth charts in different settings and for both fundal height and ultrasound measurements.

  5. Identification of QTLs for shoot and root growth under ionic-osmotic stress in Lotus, using a RIL population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quero, Gastón; Gutíerrez, Lucía; Lascano, Ramiro

    2014-01-01

    The genus Lotus includes a group of forage legume species including genotypes of agronomic interest and model species. In this work, an experimental hydroponic growth system allowed the discrimination of growth responses to ionic-osmotic stress in a population of recombinant inbred lines (RILs) d...

  6. Polypharmacy in older adults with human immunodeficiency virus infection compared with the general population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gimeno-Gracia M

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Mercedes Gimeno-Gracia,1 María José Crusells-Canales,2 Francisco Javier Armesto-Gómez,3 Vicente Compaired-Turlán,4 María José Rabanaque-Hernández5 1Pharmacy Department, Lozano Blesa University Clinical Hospital, Aragon Institute for Health Research, 2Department of Infectious Diseases, Aragon Institute for Health Research, Lozano Blesa University Clinical Hospital, 3Pharmacy Department, Aragon Health Service, 4Pharmacy Department, Lozano Blesa University Clinical Hospital, 5Department of Public Health, University of Zaragoza, Zaragoza, Spain Background: The percentage of older HIV-positive patients is growing, with an increase in age-related comorbidities and concomitant medication. Objectives: To quantify polypharmacy and profile types of non-antiretroviral drugs collected at community pharmacies in 2014 by HIV-positive individuals on antiretroviral therapy and to compare these findings with those of the general population. Methods: HIV-positive patients (n=199 were compared with a group of patients from the general population (n=8,172, aged between 50 and 64 years. The factors compared were prevalence of polypharmacy (≥5 comedications with cumulative defined daily dose [DDD] per drug over 180, percentage of patients who collected each therapeutic class of drug, and median duration for each drug class (based on DDD. Results were stratified by sex. Results: Polypharmacy was more common in HIV-positive males than in the male general population (8.9% vs 4.4%, P=0.010. Polypharmacy was also higher in HIV-positive females than in the female general population (11.3% vs 3.4%, P=0.002. Percentage of HIV-positive patients receiving analgesics, anti-infectives, gastrointestinal drugs, central nervous system (CNS agents, and respiratory drugs was higher than in the general population, with significant differences between male populations. No differences were observed in proportion of patients receiving cardiovascular drugs. The estimated number

  7. Age and growth of the sand lizards (Lacerta agilis from a high Alpine population of north-western Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fabio M. Guarino

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available We studied growth and longevity of Lacerta agilis from a sample (34 adults and 2 small-sized juveniles of a population living at high altitude in north-western Italy using skeletochronological method. Snout vent length (SVL mean of males did not significantly differ from that of females although the latter were in average bigger (SVL ± SD, males: 69.3 ± 7.1 mm, n = 11; females: 73.9 ± 9.7 mm, n = 22; Mann-Whitney U-test, U = 1.76, P = 0.077. Age ranged from 2 to 4 years (mean age ± SD = 2.3 ± 0.2 in males and from 2 to 3 years in females (mean age ± SD = 2.59 ± 0.5 years. Age mean did not significantly differ between the sexes (Mann-Whitney U-test, U = 1.35, P = 0.174. The two juveniles were 30 and 32 mm in SVL and both were 1-2 months old. In both sexes, a significant positive correlation between SVL and age was recorded although weakly significant for males (Spearman’s correlation coefficient, males: rs = 0.70, P = 0.05; females: rs = 0.75, P < 0.001. Von Bertalanffy growth curves well fitted to the relationships between age and SVL and showed a different profile between males (asymptotics size, SVLmax = 81.9 mm; growth coefficient, k = 0.63 and females (SVLmax = 100 mm; k = 0.40. Results indicate that individuals of L. agilis studied by us are short-living when compared with other populations of the same species.

  8. Effect of crop development on biogenic emissions from plant populations grown in closed plant growth chambers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batten, J. H.; Stutte, G. W.; Wheeler, R. M.

    1995-01-01

    The Biomass Production Chamber at John F. Kennedy Space Center is a closed plant growth chamber facility that can be used to monitor the level of biogenic emissions from large populations of plants throughout their entire growth cycle. The head space atmosphere of a 26-day-old lettuce (Lactuca sativa cv. Waldmann's Green) stand was repeatedly sampled and emissions identified and quantified using GC-mass spectrometry. Concentrations of dimethyl sulphide, carbon disulphide, alpha-pinene, furan and 2-methylfuran were not significantly different throughout the day; whereas, isoprene showed significant differences in concentration between samples collected in light and dark periods. Volatile organic compounds from the atmosphere of wheat (Triticum aestivum cv. Yecora Rojo) were analysed and quantified from planting to maturity. Volatile plant-derived compounds included 1-butanol, 2-ethyl-1-hexanol, nonanal, benzaldehyde, tetramethylurea, tetramethylthiourea, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran. Concentrations of volatiles were determined during seedling establishment, vegetative growth, anthesis, grain fill and senescence and found to vary depending on the developmental stage. Atmospheric concentrations of benzaldehyde and nonanal were highest during anthesis, 2-methylfuran and 3-methylfuran concentrations were greatest during grain fill, and the concentration of the tetramethylurea peaked during senescence.

  9. Non-occupational exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth in a general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sørensen, Mette; Andersen, Anne-Marie N; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole

    2010-05-01

    Occupational exposure to organic solvents during pregnancy has been associated with reduced fetal growth. Though organic solvents in the form of paint fumes are also found in the home environment, no studies have investigated the effect of such exposure in a general population. We studied associations between residential exposure to paint fumes during pregnancy and fetal growth within the Danish National Birth Cohort which consecutively recruited pregnant women from 1996 to 2002 from all over Denmark. Around the 30th pregnancy week, 19,000 mothers were interviewed about use of paint in their residence during pregnancy. The mothers were also asked about smoking habits and alcohol consumption during pregnancy, pre-pregnancy weight, height, parity and occupation. Information on birth weight and gestational age was obtained from national registers. We found that 45% of the mothers had been exposed to paint fumes in their residence during pregnancy. We found a statistically significant inverse relationship between exposure to paint fumes and the risk of being small for gestational age. There were no statistically significant associations between exposure to paint fumes and birth weight and risk of preterm birth after adjustment for potential confounders. Our results suggest that there are no causal relationship between non-occupational exposure to paint fumes in the residence during pregnancy and fetal growth. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Early growth stages salinity stress tolerance in CM72 x Gairdner doubled haploid barley population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angessa, Tefera Tolera; Zhang, Xiao-Qi; Zhou, Gaofeng; Broughton, Sue; Zhang, Wenying; Li, Chengdao

    2017-01-01

    A doubled haploid (DH) population of barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) generated from salinity tolerant genotype CM72 and salinity sensitive variety Gairdner was studied for salinity stress tolerance at germination, seedling emergence and first leaf full expansion growth stages. Germination study was conducted with deionized water, 150 mM and 300 mM NaCl treatments. Seedling stage salinity tolerance was conducted with three treatments: control, 150 mM NaCl added at seedling emergence and first leaf full expansion growth stages. Results from this study revealed transgressive phenotypic segregations for germination percentage and biomass at seedling stage. Twelve QTL were identified on chromosomes 2H-6H each explaining 10-25% of the phenotypic variations. A QTL located at 176.5 cM on chromosome 3H was linked with fresh weight per plant and dry weight per plant in salinity stress induced at first leaf full expansion growth stage, and dry weight per plant in salinity stress induced at seedling emergence. A stable QTL for germination at both 150 and 300 mM salinity stress was mapped on chromosome 2H but distantly located from a QTL linked with seedling stage salinity stress tolerance. QTL, associated markers and genotypes identified in this study play important roles in developing salinity stress tolerant barley varieties.

  11. Morphometry, growth and reproduction of an Atlantic population of the razor clam Ensis macha (Molina, 1782

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro J. Barón

    2004-06-01

    Full Text Available Ensis macha is a razor clam distributed throughout the coasts of southern Argentina and Chile. Even though it represents a valuable fishery resource, the exploitation of its Atlantic populations has begun only in recent years. This study provides the first estimates of growth rate, an interpretation of the reproductive cycle on the coast of the northern Argentine Patagonia and an analysis of the species morphometry. Growth was estimated by direct observation of growth rings on the valves by two observers. The reproductive cycle was interpreted by the analysis of temporal change of oocyte size frequency distributions. Parameter estimations for the von Bertalanffy equations respectively obtained by observers 1 and 2 were 154 and 153.7 mm for L?, 0.25 and 0.20 yr-1 for k, and -0.08 and -0.72 yr for t0. Two spawning peaks were detected: September-November 1999 and May-June 2000. However, mature females were found all year round. An abrupt change in the relationship between shell length and height was detected at 11.2 mm length.

  12. Comparing climate change and species invasions as drivers of coldwater fish population extirpations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sapna Sharma

    Full Text Available Species are influenced by multiple environmental stressors acting simultaneously. Our objective was to compare the expected effects of climate change and invasion of non-indigenous rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax on cisco (Coregonus artedii population extirpations at a regional level. We assembled a database of over 13,000 lakes in Wisconsin, USA, summarising fish occurrence, lake morphology, water chemistry, and climate. We used A1, A2, and B1 scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC of future temperature conditions for 15 general circulation models in 2046-2065 and 2081-2100 totalling 78 projections. Logistic regression indicated that cisco tended to occur in cooler, larger, and deeper lakes. Depending upon the amount of warming, 25-70% of cisco populations are predicted to be extirpated by 2100. In addition, cisco are influenced by the invasion of rainbow smelt, which prey on young cisco. Projecting current estimates of rainbow smelt spread and impact into the future will result in the extirpation of about 1% of cisco populations by 2100 in Wisconsin. Overall, the effect of climate change is expected to overshadow that of species invasion as a driver of coldwater fish population extirpations. Our results highlight the potentially dominant role of climate change as a driver of biotic change.

  13. Racial disparities in health conditions among prisoners compared with the general population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kathryn M. Nowotny

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper compares black-white health disparities among prisoners to disparities in the noninstitutionalized community to provide a more complete portrait of the nation’s heath. We use data from the 2004 Survey of Inmates in State and Federal Correctional Facilities and the 2002 and 2004 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey for incarcerated and noninstitutionalized adult (aged 18–65 men and women, respectively. Health disparities between black and white male prisoners based on self-reported prevalence are similar to disparities in the general population for hypertension and diabetes but significantly reduced for kidney problems and stroke. Health disparities between black and white female prisoners are similar to disparities in the general population for obesity but significantly reduced for hypertension, diabetes, heart problems, kidney problems, and stroke. Our study reveals that prisoners report far worse health profiles than non-prisoners but there is differential health selection into prison for whites and blacks, and population health estimates for adult black men in particular underreport the true health burden for U.S. adults. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating prison populations in demographic and public health analyses.

  14. A Comparative Study on Poverty Alleviation Between Moslem and Non Moslem Populated Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Hudaifah

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The paper attempts to explore the problems and roots of poverty, the poverty alleviation progress, programs and policies between selected Moslem populated-countries in Asia and selected non-Moslem populated-countries in Latin America. By conducting comparative analysis on statistical data, literature surveys, several journals, official reports and reliable research findings, all sources have been examined to construct comprehensive findings in the present article. Three important aspects are concluded. Firstly, by definition, a person who earns below 2,00 USD per day is considered “poor” according to the World Bank, and they are mostly living in rural areas and suburban slums. Second, poverty alleviation efforts in both particular groups of countries have resulted in a better outcome, whereby the number of poor decreased gradually according to statistical data reported by the World Bank. Other economic indicators such as GNI per capita and income inequality graphic have shown better patterns. Third, there have been different strategic policies and programs implemented between the two groups of countries. Islamic economic notions such as zakah, infaq, and sadaqah play a very significant role in Moslem populated countries, on the other hand, non Moslem populated countries tend to create more radical and creative strategies such as agendas of land reform and tourism industry development. DOI: 10.15408/aiqv9i1.3222

  15. Sexual Dimorphism and Population Affinity in the Human Zygomatic Structure-Comparing Surface to Outline Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlager, Stefan; Rüdell, Alexandra

    2017-01-01

    The human zygomatic structure, consisting of the zygomatic bone and the zygomatic process of the temporal bone, is an essential part of the masticatory apparatus and has been shown to reflect population history and sexual dimorphism to varying degrees. In this study, we analyzed the predictive value of the outlines vs. the complete surface shape of the zygomatic bone in a sample of 98 Chinese (50 ♀, 48 ♂) and 96 Germans (49 ♀, 47 ♂). We first applied a surface registration process based on statistical shape modeling. A dense set of 1,480 pseudo-landmarks was then sampled automatically from the surface of the pooled mean shape and three curves were digitized manually along the outlines of the zygomatic bone. Both sets of pseudo-landmarks were automatically transferred to all specimens. Analysis of sex and population affinity showed both factors to be independently significant, but the interaction between them was not. Population affinity could be predicted quite accurately with correct classification of 97.9% using the surface data and 93.3% with the curve data. Sexual dimorphism was less distinct with 89.2% correct sex determination when using surface information compared with 77.8% when using the curve data. Population-related shape differences were captured primarily in the outlines, while sexual dimorphism is distributed more uniformly throughout the entire surface of the zygomatic structure. Anat Rec, 300:226-237, 2017. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  16. Population dynamics and growth of the bivalve Choromytilus meridionalis (Kr.) at different tidal levels

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, Roberta J.

    1981-01-01

    Settlement, growth and reproductive output of a population of Choromytilus meridionalis have been monitored at different shore levels at Bailey's Cottage, False Bay, South Africa. Settlement was irregular, occurring at 4- to 6-year intervals, and confined to the sublittoral and lower littoral of rocky areas. Spat settled on the existing mussel bed and adjacent clean rock surfaces. Continual migration of young mussels up the shore took place during the first 1 to 1·5 years of growth until an even distribution up to 0·5 m above L.W.S. was achieved. Juveniles displaced older individuals by moving between them and forcing them off the rocks so that the majority of the adult population were eliminated from the bed within the first year after spat settlement. Mortality in individual cohorts was largely caused by strong wave action and competition for space. The density of individuals within the mussel bed was closely related to mean shell length. Growth rates varied with habitat and declined markedly with increasing height above L.W.S. Sexual maturity was attained at approximately 20 mm and reproductive output rose from 5 kJ year -1 at this length to 80 kJ year -1 at 100 mm shell length. Since packing densities were much higher in smaller individuals the annual gamete output assessed on an area basis, remained fairly constant as the mussels grew, and averaged 1392 g m -2 year -1 dry weight (31 320 kJ m -2 year -1). Energy expended as gonad output exceeded that due to mortality by a factor of 10.

  17. Prevalence of Cancer in Adults With Congenital Heart Disease Compared With the General Population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurvitz, Michelle; Ionescu-Ittu, Raluca; Guo, Liming; Eisenberg, Mark J; Abrahamowicz, Michal; Pilote, Louise; Marelli, Ariane J

    2016-12-01

    The prevalence rate of cancer among adult patients with congenital heart disease (CHD) in North America has not been previously described. The Quebec adult CHD database was used to determine the prevalence rate of cancer among adult patients with CHD measured as the number of adults with CHD and cancer alive in 2005 per 1,000 adults with CHD. This prevalence rate was compared with the prevalence rate of cancer in the general population of adults in Canada. Types of cancer among the CHD group were described by gender and age. Adult patients with CHD had a 1.6 to 2 times higher prevalence of cancer at 2, 5, and 10 years for both men and women. Overall, men had a greater prevalence of total cancers in all-time durations than did women. Breast, colon, and prostate cancer were the most common cancers reported in adults with CHD. In conclusion, we observed an increased prevalence of cancer among the adult CHD population of Quebec compared with the general Canadian population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Comparative Analysis of Gut Microbiota of Native Tibetan and Han Populations Living at Different Altitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Kang; Dan, Zeng; Gesang, Luobu; Wang, Hong; Zhou, Yongjian; Du, Yanlei; Ren, Yi; Shi, Yixiang; Nie, Yuqiang

    2016-01-01

    The factors driving the composition of gut microbiota are still only partly understood but appear to include environmental, cultural, and genetic factors. In order to obtain more insight into the relative importance of these factors, we analyzed the microbiome composition in subjects of Tibetan or Han descent living at different altitudes. DNA was isolated from stool samples. Using polymerase chain reaction methodology, the 16S rRNA V1-V3 regions were amplified and the sequence information was analyzed by principal coordinates analysis and Lefse analyses. Contrasting the Tibetan and Han populations both living at the 3600 m altitude, we found that the Tibetan microbiome is characterized by a relative abundance of Prevotella whereas the Han stool was enriched in Bacteroides. Comparing the microbiome of Han stool obtained from populations living at different altitudes revealed a more energy efficient flora in samples from those living at higher altitude relative to their lower-altitude counterparts. Comparison of the stool microbiome of Tibetan herders living at 4800 m to rural Tibetans living at 3600 m altitude shows that the former have a flora enriched in butyrate-producing bacteria, possibly in response to the harsher environment that these herders face. Thus, the study shows that both altitude and genetic/cultural background have a significant influence on microbiome composition, and it represents the first attempt to compare stool microbiota of Tibetan and Han populations in relation to altitude.

  19. Regional variation in fertility, mortality and population growth in Ethiopia, 1970-1981.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kidane, A

    1990-01-01

    Statisticians cleaned and adjusted data from the 1970 and 1981 demographic surveys conducted by the Central Statistics Office of Ethiopia to do this demographic analysis. The mean age at marriage increased from 1970-1981 in all administrative regions of Ethiopia (data did not include Eritrea and Tigrai) with the most change occurring in the southern regions (20.5% vs. 5%). Even though the biggest increases occurred in the female population, the mean age at marriage remained low hence having little impact on fertility. Indeed total fertility grew in all administrative regions with the greatest increase in the southern regions (26% vs. 19%). This change could be attributable to the increased disposable income in the southern regions bringing about better nutrition and better health facilities. Since the population of 2 regions in the south consisted of nomads who normally maintain low fertility levels, the total fertility did not change. In the northern regions, the population of 2 regions experienced no change in total fertility because of the continuing drought and famine. Despite widespread underreporting, researchers estimated at 26% and 27% of the population in the northern and southern regions respectively died before age 5 in 1970. There was little reduction in mortality in 1981 (22% and 26% respectively). The population grew between 1970-1981 in both regions. In the northern region, the growth rate increased from 2.44- 2.76 (13% change) while in the southern region, it increased from 2.36- 2.69 (14% change). Little voluntary control of fertility occurred in this time span. Clearly the government must pass legislation to raise the age at marriage and implement a comprehensive family planning program countrywide.

  20. Sugarcane Aphid Population Growth, Plant Injury, and Natural Enemies on Selected Grain Sorghum Hybrids in Texas and Louisiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brewer, Michael J; Gordy, John W; Kerns, David L; Woolley, James B; Rooney, William L; Bowling, Robert D

    2017-10-01

    In response to the 2013 outbreak of sugarcane aphid, Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), on sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.), in North America, experiments were conducted at three southern U.S. grain sorghum production locations (Corpus Christi, TX; Winnsboro, LA; Rosenberg, TX). The objectives were to authenticate yield decline on susceptible hybrids (2014 and 2015) and to measure aphid population growth and natural enemy prevalence on susceptible and resistant hybrids with similar genetic background (2014). Yield decline on susceptible hybrids (Tx 2752/Tx430 and DKS53-67) was more substantial when aphid population growth accelerated quickly and peaked above 300 aphids per leaf (50 to nearly 100% yield decline). Location and year variation in maximum aphid density and cumulative aphid-days was high, with doubling time values on the susceptible hybrids ranging between 3.9 and 7.9 d. On resistant Tx2752/Tx2783, leaf injury and yield decline were not seen or less severe than on its paired susceptible Tx2752/Tx430. Aphids declined on Tx2752/Tx2783 after initial colony establishment (Corpus Christi) or took about 60% longer to double in population size when compared with Tx2572/Tx430 (Winnsboro). The predominant natural enemy taxa were aphelinid mummies (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae), ladybird beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), and sryphid flies (Diptera: Syrphidae), and they were more prevalent during flowering than prior to flowering. They were generally responsive to changes in aphid density of both susceptible and resistant hybrids, but variability points to need for further study. In future research, full season observations should continue as well as more detailed study of potential compatibility of sorghum resistance and biological control. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  1. Age and Growth of An Outbreaking Acanthaster cf. solaris Population within the Great Barrier Reef

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Aaron MacNeil

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Despite having been studied for more than 40 years, much about the basic life history of crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS; Acanthaster spp. remains poorly understood. Size at age—a key metric of productivity for any animal population—has yet to be clearly defined, primarily due to difficulties in obtaining validated ages and potentially indeterminate growth due to factors such as starvation; within-population variability is entirely unknown. Here we develop age and growth estimates for an outbreaking CoTS population in Australian waters by integrating prior information with data from CoTS collected from multiple outbreaking reefs. Age estimates were made from un-validated band counts of 2038 individual starfish. Results from our three-parameter von Bertalanffy Bayesian hierarchical model show that, under 2013–2014 outbreak conditions, CoTS on the GBR grew to a 349 (326, 380 mm (posterior median (95% uncertainty interval total diameter at a 0.54 (0.43, 0.66 intrinsic rate of increase. However, we also found substantial evidence (ΔDIC > 200 for inter-reef variability in both maximum size (SD 38 (19, 76 and intrinsic rate of increase (SD 0.32 (0.20, 0.49 within the CoTS outbreak initiation area. These results suggest that CoTS demography can vary widely with reef-scale environmental conditions, supporting location-based mechanisms for CoTS outbreaks generally. These findings should help improve population and metapopulation models of CoTS dynamics and better predict the potential damage they may cause in the future.

  2. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asharaf Abdul Salam

    Full Text Available The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii explore its components, and (iii understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012 in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC, West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

  3. Components and public health impact of population growth in the Arab world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdul Salam, Asharaf; Elsegaey, Ibrahim; Khraif, Rshood; AlMutairi, Abdullah; Aldosari, Ali

    2015-01-01

    The Arab world, which consists of the 22 member states of the Arab League, is undergoing a rapid transition in demographics, including fertility, mortality, and migration. Comprising a distinctive geographic region spread across West Asia and North East Africa and unified by the Arabic language, these states share common values and characteristics despite having diverse economic and political conditions. The demographic lag (high fertility and low mortality) that characterizes the Arab world is unique, but the present trend of declining fertility, combined with the relatively low mortality, brings about significant changes in its population size. This research aimed to: (i) assess the population growth in the Arab world over 3 time periods, (ii) explore its components, and (iii) understand its public health impact. Data from the International Data Base (IDB) of the U.S. Census Bureau for 3 time periods (1992, 2002, and 2012) in 21 countries of the Arab world were analyzed by dividing them into four geographic sectors, namely, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), West Asia, Maghreb, and the Nile Valley African Horn. The population of the Arab world has grown considerably due to both natural growth and migration. The immigration is pronounced, especially into resource-intensive GCC nations, not only from East Asian and Central African countries but also from resource-thrifty (limited-resource) Arab nations. The migrations within, as well as outside, the Arab world reveal an interesting demographic phenomenon that requires further research: migration flows and trends. However, the transformations in public health statistics related to mortality-the impact of demographic changes-depict a new era in the Arab world.

  4. Population dynamics and growth rates of endosymbionts during Diaphorina citri (Hemiptera, Liviidae) ontogeny.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dossi, Fabio Cleisto Alda; da Silva, Edney Pereira; Cônsoli, Fernando Luis

    2014-11-01

    The infection density of symbionts is among the major parameters to understand their biological effects in host-endosymbionts interactions. Diaphorina citri harbors two bacteriome-associated bacterial endosymbionts (Candidatus Carsonella ruddii and Candidatus Profftella armatura), besides the intracellular reproductive parasite Wolbachia. In this study, the density dynamics of the three endosymbionts associated with the psyllid D. citri was investigated by real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) at different developmental stages. Bacterial density was estimated by assessing the copy number of the 16S rRNA gene for Carsonella and Profftella, and of the ftsZ gene for Wolbachia. Analysis revealed a continuous growth of the symbionts during host development. Symbiont growth and rate curves were estimated by the Gompertz equation, which indicated a negative correlation between the degree of symbiont-host specialization and the time to achieve the maximum growth rate (t*). Carsonella densities were significantly lower than those of Profftella at all host developmental stages analyzed, even though they both displayed a similar trend. The growth rates of Wolbachia were similar to those of Carsonella, but Wolbachia was not as abundant. Adult males displayed higher symbiont densities than females. However, females showed a much more pronounced increase in symbiont density as they aged if compared to males, regardless of the incorporation of symbionts into female oocytes and egg laying. The increased density of endosymbionts in aged adults differs from the usual decrease observed during host aging in other insect-symbiont systems.

  5. Decreased growth rate of P. falciparum blood stage parasitemia with age in a holoendemic population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinkevych, Mykola; Petravic, Janka; Chelimo, Kiprotich; Vulule, John; Kazura, James W; Moormann, Ann M; Davenport, Miles P

    2014-04-01

    In malaria holoendemic settings, decreased parasitemia and clinical disease is associated with age and cumulative exposure. The relative contribution of acquired immunity against various stages of the parasite life cycle is not well understood. In particular, it is not known whether changes in infection dynamics can be best explained by decreasing rates of infection, or by decreased growth rates of parasites in blood. Here, we analyze the dynamics of Plasmodium falciparum infection after treatment in a cohort of 197 healthy study participants of different ages. We use both polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and microscopy detection of parasitemia in order to understand parasite growth rates and infection rates over time. The more sensitive PCR assay detects parasites earlier than microscopy, and demonstrates a higher overall prevalence of infection than microscopy alone. The delay between PCR and microscopy detection is significantly longer in adults compared with children, consistent with slower parasite growth with age. We estimated the parasite multiplication rate from delay to PCR and microscopy detections of parasitemia. We find that both the delay between PCR and microscopy infection as well as the differing reinfection dynamics in different age groups are best explained by a slowing of parasite growth with age.

  6. Effects of salinity on growth and survival in five Artemia franciscana (Anostraca: Artemiidae) populations from Mexico Pacific Coast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castro-Mejía, Jorge; Castro-Barrera, Talía; Hernández-Hernández, Luis Héctor; Arredondo-Figueroa, José Luis; Castro-Mejía, Germán; de Lara-Andrade, Ramón

    2011-03-01

    Salinity is an important factor influencing growth and survival of aquatic organisms such as Artemia, a valuable aquaculture species. This study evaluated the effects of salinity on A. franciscana populations from different water bodies in Mexico's Pacific Coast. With this purpose, five autochthonous bisexual Artemia populations were tested to assess their survival and growth values against salinities of 40, 60, 80, 100 and 120 g/l, under laboratory conditions (25 +/- 2 degrees C; pH 8-10; constant light and aeration). The organisms were fed with 100 mL of rice bran and 2L of Tetraselmis suecica (500 000 cel/ml). The culture experiments were made in 200L plastic tanks, and survival and growth final values were obtained after 21 culture days. Survival and growth curves were determined by a regression analysis (R2). The significant differences between salinities were determined by ANOVA test (p salinities of 100-120 g/l. When the Mexican Artemia populations were cultivated at 40 g/l of salinity, 100% mortality was observed in the juvenile stage. This study determined that survival and growth values of A. franciscana populations increased with salinity. The five A. franciscana populations presented significant differences in their survival rate under various salinity regimes. The studied populations experienced high mortality at salinities under 60 g/l and over 200 g/l, and especially during the metanauplius stage. The present study confirms that growth rates in Mexican A. franciscana populations from Pacific Coast habitats are not inversely proportional to salinity. These A. franciscana populations should be cultured at 100-120 g/l of salinity to obtain better survival and growth rates. This data is useful to improve culture systems in aquaculture biomass production systems.

  7. Cell Differentiation in a Bacillus thuringiensis Population during Planktonic Growth, Biofilm Formation, and Host Infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verplaetse, Emilie; Slamti, Leyla; Gohar, Michel; Lereclus, Didier

    2015-04-28

    Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) is armed to complete a full cycle in its insect host. During infection, virulence factors are expressed under the control of the quorum sensor PlcR to kill the host. After the host's death, the quorum sensor NprR controls a necrotrophic lifestyle, allowing the vegetative cells to use the insect cadaver as a bioincubator and to survive. Only a part of the Bt population sporulates in the insect cadaver, and the precise composition of the whole population and its evolution over time are unknown. Using fluorescent reporters to record gene expression at the single-cell level, we have determined the differentiation course of a Bt population and explored the lineage existing among virulent, necrotrophic, and sporulating cells. The dynamics of cell differentiation were monitored during growth in homogenized medium, biofilm formation, and colonization of insect larvae. We demonstrated that in the insect host and in planktonic culture in rich medium, the virulence, necrotrophism, and sporulation regulators are successively activated in the same cell. In contrast, in biofilms, activation of PlcR is dispensable for NprR activation and we observed a greater heterogeneity than under the other two growth conditions. We also showed that sporulating cells arise almost exclusively from necrotrophic cells. In biofilm and in the insect cadaver, we identified an as-yet-uncharacterized category of cells that do not express any of the reporters used. Overall, we showed that PlcR, NprR, and Spo0A act as interconnected integrators to allow finely tuned adaptation of the pathogen to its environment. Bt is an entomopathogen found ubiquitously in the environment and is a widely used biopesticide. Studies performed at the population level suggest that the infection process of Bt includes three successive steps (virulence, necrotrophism, and sporulation) controlled by different regulators. This study aimed to determine how these phenotypes are activated at the

  8. The influence of historical climate changes on Southern Ocean marine predator populations: a comparative analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Younger, Jane L; Emmerson, Louise M; Miller, Karen J

    2016-02-01

    The Southern Ocean ecosystem is undergoing rapid physical and biological changes that are likely to have profound implications for higher-order predators. Here, we compare the long-term, historical responses of Southern Ocean predators to climate change. We examine palaeoecological evidence for changes in the abundance and distribution of seabirds and marine mammals, and place these into context with palaeoclimate records in order to identify key environmental drivers associated with population changes. Our synthesis revealed two key factors underlying Southern Ocean predator population changes; (i) the availability of ice-free ground for breeding and (ii) access to productive foraging grounds. The processes of glaciation and sea ice fluctuation were key; the distributions and abundances of elephant seals, snow petrels, gentoo, chinstrap and Adélie penguins all responded strongly to the emergence of new breeding habitat coincident with deglaciation and reductions in sea ice. Access to productive foraging grounds was another limiting factor, with snow petrels, king and emperor penguins all affected by reduced prey availability in the past. Several species were isolated in glacial refugia and there is evidence that refuge populations were supported by polynyas. While the underlying drivers of population change were similar across most Southern Ocean predators, the individual responses of species to environmental change varied because of species specific factors such as dispersal ability and environmental sensitivity. Such interspecific differences are likely to affect the future climate change responses of Southern Ocean marine predators and should be considered in conservation plans. Comparative palaeoecological studies are a valuable source of long-term data on species' responses to environmental change that can provide important insights into future climate change responses. This synthesis highlights the importance of protecting productive foraging grounds

  9. Population growth of Varroa destructor (Acari: Varroidae) in honey bee colonies is affected by the number of foragers with mites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Varroa mites are a serious pest of honey bees and the leading cause of colony losses. Varroa have relatively low reproductive rates, so populations should not increase rapidly, but often they do. Other factors might contribute to the growth of Varroa populations including mite migration into colonie...

  10. The tragedy of the commons in microbial populations: insights from theoretical, comparative and experimental studies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLean, R C

    2008-03-01

    First principles of thermodynamics imply that metabolic pathways are faced with a trade-off between the rate and yield of ATP production. Simple evolutionary models argue that this trade-off generates a fundamental social conflict in microbial populations: average fitness in a population is highest if all individuals exploit common resources efficiently, but individual reproductive rate is maximized by consuming common resources at the highest possible rate, a scenario known as the tragedy of the commons. In this paper, I review studies that have addressed two key questions: What is the evidence that the rate-yield trade-off is an evolutionary constraint on metabolic pathways? And, if so, what determines evolutionary outcome of the conflicts generated by this trade-off? Comparative studies and microbial experiments provide evidence that the rate-yield trade-off is an evolutionary constraint that is driven by thermodynamic constraints that are common to all metabolic pathways and pathway-specific constraints that reflect the evolutionary history of populations. Microbial selection experiments show that the evolutionary consequences of this trade-off depend on both kin selection and biochemical constraints. In well-mixed populations with low relatedness, genotypes with rapid and efficient metabolism can coexist as a result of negative frequency-dependent selection generated by density-dependent biochemical costs of rapid metabolism. Kin selection can promote the maintenance of efficient metabolism in structured populations with high relatedness by ensuring that genotypes with efficient metabolic pathways gain an indirect fitness benefit from their competitive restraint. I conclude by suggesting avenues for future research and by discussing the broader implications of this work for microbial social evolution.

  11. Measuring transcutaneous bilirubin: a comparative analysis of three devices on a multiracial population

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Hyperbilirubinemia can lead to potentially irreversible bilirubin-induced neurotoxicity. Transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) determination has become a valuable aid in non invasive screening of neonatal jaundice. The aim of this study is to compare the performance of three most widespread transcutaneous bilirubinometers on a multiracial population of term and late pre-term neonates. Methods Bilirubin concentration was determined using traditional photometric determination and transcutaneously with Bilicheck, BiliMed and JM-103, in random order. Total serum bilirubin (TSB) was determined over a wide concentration range (15,8–0,7 mg/dl) with a mean of 9,5 mg/dl. Related TcB values using Bilicheck (TcB-BC), BiliMed (TcB-BM), and JM-103 (TcB-JM) are reported in Table 1. Results A multiracial population of 289 neonates was enrolled with a gestational age ranging from 35 to 41 weeks; birth weight ranging from 1800to 4350 grams; hours of life ranging from 4 to 424. In the total study population correlation analysis using Pearson coefficients showed good results for Bilicheck (r = 0.86) and JM-103 (r = 0.85) but poor for BiliMed (r = 0,70). Similar results were found for the non-Caucasian neonates subgroup. Bilicheck and JM-103 had a greater area under the curve than BiliMed when TSB =14 mg/dl was chosen as a threshold value both for the total study population and the non-Caucasian subgroup. Conclusions Bilicheck and JM-103, but not BiliMed, are equally reliable screening tools for hyperbilirubinemia in our multiracial neonatal population. PMID:22697173

  12. Inference of Super-exponential Human Population Growth via Efficient Computation of the Site Frequency Spectrum for Generalized Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Feng; Keinan, Alon

    2016-01-01

    The site frequency spectrum (SFS) and other genetic summary statistics are at the heart of many population genetic studies. Previous studies have shown that human populations have undergone a recent epoch of fast growth in effective population size. These studies assumed that growth is exponential, and the ensuing models leave an excess amount of extremely rare variants. This suggests that human populations might have experienced a recent growth with speed faster than exponential. Recent studies have introduced a generalized growth model where the growth speed can be faster or slower than exponential. However, only simulation approaches were available for obtaining summary statistics under such generalized models. In this study, we provide expressions to accurately and efficiently evaluate the SFS and other summary statistics under generalized models, which we further implement in a publicly available software. Investigating the power to infer deviation of growth from being exponential, we observed that adequate sample sizes facilitate accurate inference; e.g., a sample of 3000 individuals with the amount of data expected from exome sequencing allows observing and accurately estimating growth with speed deviating by ≥10% from that of exponential. Applying our inference framework to data from the NHLBI Exome Sequencing Project, we found that a model with a generalized growth epoch fits the observed SFS significantly better than the equivalent model with exponential growth (P-value [Formula: see text]). The estimated growth speed significantly deviates from exponential (P-value [Formula: see text]), with the best-fit estimate being of growth speed 12% faster than exponential. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

  13. New Sources for Comparative Social Science: Historical Population Panel Data From East Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Hao; Campbell, Cameron; Kurosu, Satomi; Yang, Wenshan; Lee, James Z.

    2016-01-01

    Comparison and comparability lie at the heart of any comparative social science. Still, precise comparison is virtually impossible without using similar methods and similar data. In recent decades, social demographers, historians, and economic historians have compiled and made available a large number of micro-level data sets of historical populations for North America and Europe. Studies using these data have already made important contributions to many academic disciplines. In a similar spirit, we introduce five new microlevel historical panel data sets from East Asia, including the China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset–Liaoning (CMGPD-LN) 1749–1909, the China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset– Shuangcheng (CMGPD-SC) 1866–1913, the Japanese Ninbetsu-Aratame-Cho Population Register Database–Shimomoriya and Niita (NAC-SN) 1716–1870, the Korea Multi-Generational Panel Dataset–Tansung (KMGPD-TS) 1678–1888, and the Colonial Taiwan Household Registration Database (CTHRD) 1906–1945. These data sets in total contain more than 3.7 million linked observations of 610,000 individuals and are the first such Asian data to be made available online or by application. We discuss the key features and historical institutions that originally collected these data; the subsequent processes by which the data were reconstructed into individual-level panels; their particular data limitations and strengths; and their potential for comparative social scientific research. PMID:26001625

  14. New Sources for Comparative Social Science: Historical Population Panel Data From East Asia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Hao; Campbell, Cameron; Kurosu, Satomi; Yang, Wenshan; Lee, James Z

    2015-06-01

    Comparison and comparability lie at the heart of any comparative social science. Still, precise comparison is virtually impossible without using similar methods and similar data. In recent decades, social demographers, historians, and economic historians have compiled and made available a large number of micro-level data sets of historical populations for North America and Europe. Studies using these data have already made important contributions to many academic disciplines. In a similar spirit, we introduce five new micro-level historical panel data sets from East Asia, including the China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset-Liaoning (CMGPD-LN) 1749-1909, the China Multi-Generational Panel Dataset-Shuangcheng (CMGPD-SC) 1866-1913, the Japanese Ninbetsu-Aratame-Cho Population Register Database-Shimomoriya and Niita (NAC-SN) 1716-1870, the Korea Multi-Generational Panel Dataset-Tansung (KMGPD-TS) 1678-1888, and the Colonial Taiwan Household Registration Database (CTHRD) 1906-1945. These data sets in total contain more than 3.7 million linked observations of 610,000 individuals and are the first such Asian data to be made available online or by application. We discuss the key features and historical institutions that originally collected these data; the subsequent processes by which the data were reconstructed into individual-level panels; their particular data limitations and strengths; and their potential for comparative social scientific research.

  15. Incidence of Herpes Simplex Virus Keratitis in HIV/AIDS patients compared with the general population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burcea, M; Gheorghe, A; Pop, M

    2015-01-01

    Acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) is associated with a wide spectrum of systemic and ocular infectious diseases. Little information is known about Herpes Simplex Virus type 1 (HSV-1) keratoconjunctivitis in association with AIDS. Because HSV-1 is becoming, day by day, a common eye disease (nearly 100% patients of over 60 years old harbor HSV in their trigeminal ganglia at autopsy), this article discussing a worldwide public health problem. The purpose of this paper is to compare the incidence and clinical aspects of HSV-1 Keratitis in HIV/ AIDS patients compared with the general population who develops HSV- 1 Keratitis. The study is retrospective and comparative. Each patient was examined thoroughly at the biomicroscope ocular slit after corneal staining with fluorescein or rose bengal. Visual acuity, intraocular pressure and corneal sensitivity were also examined. From 170 patients with HIV and ocular anterior segment disorders, 47 patients had viral etiology. 58 patients had keratitis; 14 of them were HSV-1 keratitis. Doctors should be aware of the existence of the ocular damage in HIV/ AIDS and emphasize the importance of regular ophthalmologic examination of patients with HIV/ AIDS as HSV infection is common nowadays among the general population.

  16. Comparative phylogeography of a coevolved community: concerted population expansions in Joshua trees and four yucca moths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Christopher Irwin; Tank, Shantel; Godsoe, William; Levenick, Jim; Strand, Eva; Esque, Todd C.; Pellmyr, Olle

    2011-01-01

    Comparative phylogeographic studies have had mixed success in identifying common phylogeographic patterns among co-distributed organisms. Whereas some have found broadly similar patterns across a diverse array of taxa, others have found that the histories of different species are more idiosyncratic than congruent. The variation in the results of comparative phylogeographic studies could indicate that the extent to which sympatrically-distributed organisms share common biogeographic histories varies depending on the strength and specificity of ecological interactions between them. To test this hypothesis, we examined demographic and phylogeographic patterns in a highly specialized, coevolved community – Joshua trees (Yucca brevifolia) and their associated yucca moths. This tightly-integrated, mutually interdependent community is known to have experienced significant range changes at the end of the last glacial period, so there is a strong a priori expectation that these organisms will show common signatures of demographic and distributional changes over time. Using a database of >5000 GPS records for Joshua trees, and multi-locus DNA sequence data from the Joshua tree and four species of yucca moth, we combined paleaodistribution modeling with coalescent-based analyses of demographic and phylgeographic history. We extensively evaluated the power of our methods to infer past population size and distributional changes by evaluating the effect of different inference procedures on our results, comparing our palaeodistribution models to Pleistocene-aged packrat midden records, and simulating DNA sequence data under a variety of alternative demographic histories. Together the results indicate that these organisms have shared a common history of population expansion, and that these expansions were broadly coincident in time. However, contrary to our expectations, none of our analyses indicated significant range or population size reductions at the end of the last glacial

  17. Rate and time trend of perinatal, infant, maternal mortality, natality and natural population growth in kosovo.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azemi, Mehmedali; Gashi, Sanije; Berisha, Majlinda; Kolgeci, Selim; Ismaili-Jaha, Vlora

    2012-01-01

    THE AIM OF WORK HAS BEEN THE PRESENTATION OF THE RATE AND TIME TRENDS OF SOME INDICATORS OF THE HEATH CONDITION OF MOTHERS AND CHILDREN IN KOSOVO: fetal mortality, early neonatal mortality, perinatal mortality, infant mortality, natality, natural growth of population etc. The treated patients were the newborn and infants in the post neonatal period, women during their pregnancy and those 42 days before and after the delivery. THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM: register of the patients treated in the Pediatric Clinic of Prishtina, World Health Organization, Mother and Child Health Care, Reproductive Health Care, Ministry of Health of the Republic of Kosovo, Statistical Department of Kosovo, the National Institute of Public Health and several academic texts in the field of pediatrics. Some indicators were analyzed in a period between year 1945-2010 and 1950-2010, whereas some others were analyzed in a time period between year 2000 and 2011. The perinatal mortality rate in 2000 was 29.1‰, whereas in 2011 it was 18.7‰. The fetal mortality rate was 14.5‰ during the year 2000, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰, in 2000 the early neonatal mortality was 14.8‰, in 2011 it was 7.5‰. The infant mortality in Kosovo was 164‰ in 1950, whereas in 2010 it was 20.5‰. The most frequent causes of infant mortality have been: lower respiratory tract infections, acute infective diarrhea, perinatal causes, congenital malformations and unclassified conditions. Maternal death rate varied during this time period. Maternal death in 2000 was 23 whereas in 2010 only two cases were reported. Regarding the natality, in 1950 it reached 46.1 ‰, whereas in 2010 it reached 14‰, natural growth of population rate in Kosovo was 29.1‰ in 1950, whereas in 2011 it was 11.0‰. Perinatal mortality rate in Kosovo is still high in comparison with other European countries (Turkey and Kyrgyzstan have the highest perinatal mortality rate), even though it is in a continuous decrease. Infant mortality

  18. Population growth is limited by nutritional impacts on pregnancy success in endangered Southern Resident killer whales (Orcinus orca)

    OpenAIRE

    Wasser, Samuel K.; Lundin, Jessica I.; Ayres, Katherine; Seely, Elizabeth; Giles, Deborah; Balcomb, Kenneth; Hempelmann, Jennifer; Parsons, Kim; Booth, Rebecca

    2017-01-01

    The Southern Resident killer whale population (Orcinus orca) was listed as endangered in 2005 and shows little sign of recovery. These fish eating whales feed primarily on endangered Chinook salmon. Population growth is constrained by low offspring production for the number of reproductive females in the population. Lack of prey, increased toxins and vessel disturbance have been listed as potential causes of the whale?s decline, but partitioning these pressures has been difficult. We validate...

  19. World population and energy growth: Impact on the Caribbean and the roles of energy efficiency improvements and renewable energies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheffield, J.

    1997-06-01

    This paper briefly describes population and energy use trends and their consequences, particularly to the Caribbean region. Historical trends for transitional countries show a decrease in population growth rate as annual per capita commercial energy use increases. If trends continue, an increase in per capita energy will be important to stabilizing populations of transitional countries. Energy efficiency improvements, the role of fossil energy, and the use of alternative energy sources in Caribbean nations are briefly discussed. 6 refs., 3 figs.

  20. Assessment of the growth of epidural injections in the medicare population from 2000 to 2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchikanti, Laxmaiah; Pampati, Vidyasagar; Falco, Frank J E; Hirsch, Joshua A

    2013-01-01

    Among the many diagnostic and therapeutic interventions available for the management of chronic pain, epidural steroid injections are one of the most commonly used modalities. The explosive growth of this technique is relevant in light of the high cost of health care in the United States and abroad, the previous literature assessing the effectiveness of epidural injections has been sparse with highly variable outcomes based on technique, outcome measures, patient selection, and methodology. However, the recent assessment of fluoroscopically directed epidural injections has shown improved evidence with proper inclusion criteria, methodology, and outcome measures. The exponential growth of epidural injections is illustrated in multiple reports. The present report is an update of the analysis of the growth of epidural injections in the Medicare population from 2000 to 2011 in the United States. Analysis of utilization patterns of epidural procedures in the Medicare population in the United States from 2000 to 2011. The primary purpose of this assessment was to evaluate the use of all types of epidural injections (i.e., caudal, interlaminar, and transforaminal in the lumbar, cervical, and thoracic regions) with an assessment of specialty and regional characteristics. This assessment was performed utilizing the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) Physician/Supplier Procedure Summary (PSPS) Master data from 2000 to 2011. Epidural injections in Medicare beneficiaries increased significantly from 2000 to 2011. Overall, epidural injections increased 130% per 100,000 Medicare beneficiaries with an annual increase of 7.5%. The increases per 100,000 Medicare recipients were 123% for cervical/thoracic interlaminar epidural injections; 25% for lumbar/sacral interlaminar, or caudal epidural injections; 142% for cervical/thoracic transforaminal epidural injections; and 665% for lumbar/sacral transforaminal epidural injections. The use of epidurals increased 224% in

  1. Lower Cancer Rates Among Druze Compared to Arab and Jewish Populations in Israel, 1999-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atzmon, Iris; Linn, Shai; Portnov, Boris A; Richter, Elihu; Keinan-Boker, Lital

    2017-06-01

    The Druze are a small ethnic minority in Israel amounting to about 130,000 residents (or 1.7 % of the total population of the country). Unlike other population groups, the Druze strive to keep their own traditions and marry mainly inside their own community. During the last decade, cancer morbidity among both Jews and Arabs in Israel has been increasing, while data on the Druze are little known and have not been analyzed and compared to other population groups to date. To compare cancer morbidity rates among Druze, Arabs and Jews in Israel during 1999-2009, gender-specific and age-standardized incidence rates of all site cancers and specific cancers of three population groups (Jews, Arabs and Druze) were received from the Israel National Cancer Registry for the period 1999-2009. Based on these rates, periodical incidence rates were calculated and mutually compared across the groups stratified by gender. As the analysis shows, the Druze had significantly lower cancer rates compared to both Arabs and Jews. Thus, for all site cancers, there were significantly higher cancer rates in Jewish males versus Druze males (RR = 1.39, 95 % CI = 1.16-1.65) and in Jewish females versus Druze females (RR = 1.53, 95 % CI = 1.27-1.85), but not statistically significant for Arab males versus Druze males (RR = 1.12 95 % CI = 0.93-1.35). Lung cancer rates in Arab males were also higher compared to Druze males (RR = 1.84, 95 % CI = 1.13-3.00). Jewish males had statistically significant higher rates of prostate cancer compared to Druze males (RR = 2.47, 95 % CI = 1.55-3.91). For thyroid and colon cancers, risks were not significantly different at the 95 % CI level; however, the risks were significantly different at the 90 % CI level (RR = 3.62, 90 % CI 1.20-11.02 and RR = 1.69, 90 % CI = 1.03-2.77, respectively). Jewish females had significantly higher rates of invasive breast cancer (RR = 2.25, 95 % CI = 1.55-3.25), in situ cervical cancer (RR

  2. Experimental exposure to cadmium affects metallothionein-like protein levels but not survival and growth in wolf spiders from polluted and reference populations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eraly, Debbie, E-mail: debbie.eraly@ugent.b [Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Hendrickx, Frederik, E-mail: frederik.hendrickx@naturalsciences.b [Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Department of Entomology, Vautierstraat 29, 1000 Brussels (Belgium); Bervoets, Lieven, E-mail: lieven.bervoets@ua.ac.b [Ecophysiology, Biochemistry and Toxicology Group, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Lens, Luc, E-mail: luc.lens@ugent.b [Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2010-06-15

    Both local adaptation and acclimation in tolerance mechanisms may allow populations to persist under metal pollution. However, both mechanisms are presumed to incur (energetic) costs and to trade-off with other life-history traits. To test this hypothesis, we exposed Pardosa saltans (Lycosidae) spiderlings originating from metal-polluted and unpolluted sites to a controlled cadmium (Cd) treatment, and compared contents of metal-binding metallothionein-like proteins (MTLPs), internal metal concentrations, and individual survival and growth rates with a reference treatment. While increased MTLP concentrations in offspring originating from both polluted and unpolluted populations upon exposure indicates a plastic tolerance mechanism, survival and growth rates remain largely unaffected, independent of the population of origin. However, MTLP and Cd concentrations were not significantly correlated. We suggest that MTLP production may be an important mechanism enabling P. saltans populations to persist in ecosystems polluted with heavy metals above a certain level. - Spiders from metal-polluted and unpolluted populations show a similar increase in MTLP production when exposed to Cd, with unaffected growth and survival.

  3. Why Does Population Aging Matter So Much for Asia? Population Aging, Economic Security and Economic Growth in Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Sang-Hyop; Mason, Andrew; Park, Donghyun

    2011-01-01

    Asia as a whole is experiencing a rapid demographic transition toward older population structures. Within this broader region-wide trend, there is considerable heterogeneity, with different countries at different stages of the demographic transition. In this paper, we document Asia’s population aging, describe the region’s old-age support systems, and draw out the regional socioeconomic implications of population aging and old-age support systems. Population aging gives rise to two fundamenta...

  4. Comparing population exposure to multiple Washington earthquake scenarios for prioritizing loss estimation studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Nathan J.; Ratliff, Jamie L.; Schelling, John; Weaver, Craig S.

    2014-01-01

    Scenario-based, loss-estimation studies are useful for gauging potential societal impacts from earthquakes but can be challenging to undertake in areas with multiple scenarios and jurisdictions. We present a geospatial approach using various population data for comparing earthquake scenarios and jurisdictions to help emergency managers prioritize where to focus limited resources on data development and loss-estimation studies. Using 20 earthquake scenarios developed for the State of Washington (USA), we demonstrate how a population-exposure analysis across multiple jurisdictions based on Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) classes helps emergency managers understand and communicate where potential loss of life may be concentrated and where impacts may be more related to quality of life. Results indicate that certain well-known scenarios may directly impact the greatest number of people, whereas other, potentially lesser-known, scenarios impact fewer people but consequences could be more severe. The use of economic data to profile each jurisdiction’s workforce in earthquake hazard zones also provides additional insight on at-risk populations. This approach can serve as a first step in understanding societal impacts of earthquakes and helping practitioners to efficiently use their limited risk-reduction resources.

  5. Modelagem do crescimento populacional do rebanho bovino brasileiro Modeling the growth of Brazilian cattle population

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alfredo Ribeiro de Freitas

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available Considerando-se o número efetivo de animais e a taxa de abate do rebanho bovino brasileiro no período de 1983 a 2000, estimou-se o crescimento dessa população utilizando-se o modelo de Richards, ajustado pela técnica de verossimilhança profile. O modelo se mostrou adequado para descrever o crescimento da população brasileira de bovinos, pois as superestimavas e ou subestimavas dos valores se situaram entre 1 e 2,5%. A partir da modelagem por cadeia de Markov, foram calculados a probabilidade de o rebanho atingir 200 milhões de animais até o ano de 2015, em função da taxa de abate, e o tempo esperado para se atingir este tamanho populacional, em função da taxa de abate. A probabilidade de o rebanho atingir 200 milhões de animais até o ano de 2015, a uma taxa de abate de aproximadamente 17%, é 0,7. Com taxa de abate anual de 16%, o rebanho atingirá esse tamanho no período de 11 anos e, com taxa de abate de 18%, em 20 anos.The growth of the Brazilian bovine cattle population was evaluated using the effective number of animals and the annual slaughter rate from 1983 to 2000. The Richards model was fitted with the profile likelihood technique. Two population parameters were calculated by Markov chain modeling: a the probability of the cattle population to reach 200 million of animals in 2015 as a function of the slaughter rate; b the time to reach this size, considering different annual slaughter rates. The Richards model was adequate to estimate the Brazilian cattle population growth since overestimated and/or underestimated values ranged between one and 2.5%. The probability of the Brazilian herd to reach 200 millions animals in 2015 for an annual slaughter rate of approximately 17% is 0.7 and the expected time to reach 200 million animals for annual slaughter rates of 16% and 18% was 11 and 20 years respectively.

  6. Reproduction, abundance, and population growth for a fisher (Pekania pennanti) population in the Sierra National Forest, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Reginald H. Barrett; Kathryn L. Purcell; Craig M. Thompson

    2015-01-01

    In the west coast region of the United States, fishers (Pekania pennanti) exist in 2 remnant populations—1 in northern California and 1 in the southern Sierra Nevada, California—and 3 reintroduced populations (western Washington, southern Oregon, and northeastern California). The West Coast Distinct Population Segment of fishers encompassing all of...

  7. The protective function of personal growth initiative among a genocide-affected population in Rwanda.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackie, Laura E R; Jayawickreme, Eranda; Forgeard, Marie J C; Jayawickreme, Nuwan

    2015-07-01

    The aim of the current study was to investigate the extent to which individual differences in personal growth initiative (PGI) were associated with lower reports of functional impairment of daily activities among a genocide-affected population in Rwanda. PGI measures an individual's motivation to develop as a person and the extent to which he or she is active in setting goals that work toward achieving self-improvement. We found that PGI was negatively associated with functional impairment when controlling for depression, posttraumatic stress disorder, and other demographic factors. Our results suggest that PGI may constitute an important mindset for facilitating adaptive functioning in the aftermath of adversity and in the midst of psychological distress, and as such they might have practical applications for the development of intervention programs. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  8. Comparative physiological plasticity to desiccation in distinct populations of the malarial mosquito Anopheles coluzzii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Hidalgo

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background In West Africa, populations of the malaria vector mosquito, Anopheles coluzzii, are seasonally exposed to strong desiccating conditions during the dry season. Their dynamics strictly follows the pace of the availability of suitable larval development sites (water collections. Accordingly, mosquitoes can reproduce all year long where permanent breeding is possible, or stop reproduction and virtually disappear at the onset of the dry season when surface water dries up, like observed in temporary habitats of dry savannah areas. This highlights the strong adaptive abilities of this mosquito species, which relies at least in part, upon physiological and molecular mechanisms of specific signatures. Methods Here, we analysed a range of physiological and molecular responses expressed by geographically different populations of An. coluzzii inhabiting permanent and temporary breeding sites from the north and the south-west of Burkina Faso. Four mosquito colonies, namely (i Oursi, built from females breeding in permanent habitats of the north; (ii Déou, from temporary northern habitats; (iii Soumousso from south-western temporary breeding sites; and (iv Bama, from permanent habitats of the same south-western zone, were reared in climatic chambers under contrasted environmental conditions, mimicking temperature, relative humidity and light regimen occurring in northern Burkina Faso. Female mosquitoes were analysed for the seasonal variation in their amounts of proteins, triglycerides and free-circulating metabolites. The expression level of genes coding for the adipokinetic (AKH-I and the AKH/corazonin-related peptides (ACP were also assessed and compared among populations and environmental conditions. Results Our analysis did not reveal an apparent pattern of physiological and molecular variations strictly correlated with either the larval ecotype or the geographical origin of the mosquitoes. However, specific distinct responses were

  9. Richards growth model and viability indicators for populations subject to interventions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Selene Loibel

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this work we study the problem of modeling identification of a population employing a discrete dynamic model based on the Richards growth model. The population is subjected to interventions due to consumption, such as hunting or farming animals. The model identification allows us to estimate the probability or the average time for a population number to reach a certain level. The parameter inference for these models are obtained with the use of the likelihood profile technique as developed in this paper. The identification method here developed can be applied to evaluate the productivity of animal husbandry or to evaluate the risk of extinction of autochthon populations. It is applied to data of the Brazilian beef cattle herd population, and the the population number to reach a certain goal level is investigated.Neste trabalho estudamos o problema de identificação do modelo de uma população utilizando um modelo dinâmico discreto baseado no modelo de crescimento de Richards. A população é submetida a intervenções devido ao consumo, como no caso de caça ou na criação de animais. A identificação do modelo permite-nos estimar a probabilidade ou o tempo médio de ocorrência para que se atinja um certo número populacional. A inferência paramétrica dos modelos é obtida através da técnica de perfil de máxima verossimilhança como desenvolvida neste trabalho. O método de identificação desenvolvido pode ser aplicado para avaliar a produtividade de criação animal ou o risco de extinção de uma população autóctone. Ele foi aplicado aos dados da população global de gado de corte bovino brasileiro, e é utilizado na investigação de a população atingir um certo número desejado de cabeças.

  10. Comparative karyotype analysis of populations in the Alstroemeria presliana Herbert (Alstroemeriaceae complex in Chile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Baeza

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Alstroemeria L., one of the most diverse genera of the Chilean flora and of high floricultural value, is represented by 35 species, most of them distributed between 28–38° S in the Mediterranean zone of Central Chile. There are 24 complex-forming taxa, of which 18 have conservation problems (8 are considered “endangered” and 10 as “vulnerable”. One of these complexes is Alstroemeria presliana Herb. with two subspecies: subsp. presliana and subsp. australis Bayer. Alstroemeria presliana grows in Chile and Argentina: subsp. presliana is distributed from Reserva Nacional Siete Tazas (35°27′ S, Region of Maule to Antuco, (37°25′ S, Region of Bío-Bío, and is also found in Neuquén, Argentina; subsp. australis is endemic to the Cordillera of Nahuelbuta. A comparative karyotype study was carried out among six populations of A. presliana subsp. presliana and five populations of A. presliana subsp. australis. The eleven populations presented an asymmetric karyotype, with 2n = 2× = 16 chromosomes but with different karyotype formulae. A. presliana subsp. presliana shows the haploid formula 2m + 2m-sat + 1sm-sat + 1st-sat + 1t + 1 t-sat, and A. presliana subsp. australis presents a formula 1m + 2m-sat + 1sm + 2t + 2t-sat chromosomes. The architecture of the karyotype between the subspecies is very different. The scatter plot among CVCL vs. MCA shows different groupings between populations of the two subspecies. According to the results obtained it is possible to consider raising Alstroemeria presliana subsp. australis at species level.

  11. Comparative karyotype analysis of populations in the Alstroemeria presliana Herbert (Alstroemeriaceae) complex in Chile.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, Carlos; Finot, Víctor L; Ruiz, Eduardo

    2015-05-01

    Alstroemeria L., one of the most diverse genera of the Chilean flora and of high floricultural value, is represented by 35 species, most of them distributed between 28-38° S in the Mediterranean zone of Central Chile. There are 24 complex-forming taxa, of which 18 have conservation problems (8 are considered "endangered" and 10 as "vulnerable"). One of these complexes is Alstroemeria presliana Herb. with two subspecies: subsp. presliana and subsp. australis Bayer. Alstroemeria presliana grows in Chile and Argentina: subsp. presliana is distributed from Reserva Nacional Siete Tazas (35°27' S, Region of Maule) to Antuco, (37°25' S, Region of Bío-Bío), and is also found in Neuquén, Argentina; subsp. australis is endemic to the Cordillera of Nahuelbuta. A comparative karyotype study was carried out among six populations of A. presliana subsp. presliana and five populations of A. presliana subsp. australis. The eleven populations presented an asymmetric karyotype, with 2n = 2× = 16 chromosomes but with different karyotype formulae. A. presliana subsp. presliana shows the haploid formula 2m + 2m-sat + 1sm-sat + 1st-sat + 1t + 1 t-sat, and A. preslianasubsp. australis presents a formula 1m + 2m-sat + 1sm + 2t + 2t-sat chromosomes. The architecture of the karyotype between the subspecies is very different. The scatter plot among CVCL vs. MCA shows different groupings between populations of the two subspecies. According to the results obtained it is possible to consider raising Alstroemeria presliana subsp. australis at species level.

  12. App Usage Factor: A Simple Metric to Compare the Population Impact of Mobile Medical Apps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Thomas Lorchan; Wyatt, Jeremy C

    2015-08-19

    One factor when assessing the quality of mobile apps is quantifying the impact of a given app on a population. There is currently no metric which can be used to compare the population impact of a mobile app across different health care disciplines. The objective of this study is to create a novel metric to characterize the impact of a mobile app on a population. We developed the simple novel metric, app usage factor (AUF), defined as the logarithm of the product of the number of active users of a mobile app with the median number of daily uses of the app. The behavior of this metric was modeled using simulated modeling in Python, a general-purpose programming language. Three simulations were conducted to explore the temporal and numerical stability of our metric and a simulated app ecosystem model using a simulated dataset of 20,000 apps. Simulations confirmed the metric was stable between predicted usage limits and remained stable at extremes of these limits. Analysis of a simulated dataset of 20,000 apps calculated an average value for the app usage factor of 4.90 (SD 0.78). A temporal simulation showed that the metric remained stable over time and suitable limits for its use were identified. A key component when assessing app risk and potential harm is understanding the potential population impact of each mobile app. Our metric has many potential uses for a wide range of stakeholders in the app ecosystem, including users, regulators, developers, and health care professionals. Furthermore, this metric forms part of the overall estimate of risk and potential for harm or benefit posed by a mobile medical app. We identify the merits and limitations of this metric, as well as potential avenues for future validation and research.

  13. Reversal of Growth of Utilization of Interventional Techniques in Managing Chronic Pain in Medicare Population Post Affordable Care Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchikanti, Laxmaiah; Soin, Amol; Mann, Dharam P; Bakshi, Sanjay; Pampati, Vidyasagar; Hirsch, Joshua A

    2017-11-01

    Over the past 2 decades, the increase in the utilization of interventional techniques has been a cause for concern. Despite multiple regulations to reduce utilization of interventional techniques, growth patterns continued through 2009. A declining trend was observed in a previous evaluation; however, a comparative analysis of utilization patterns of interventional techniques has not been performed showing utilization before and after the enactment of the Affordable Care Act (ACA). Our aim is to assess patterns of utilization and variables of interventional techniques in chronic pain management in the fee-for-service (FFS) Medicare population, with a comparative analysis of pre- and post-ACA. Utilization patterns and variables of interventional techniques were assessed from 2000 to 2009 and from 2009 to 2016 in the FFS Medicare population of the United States in managing chronic pain. The master data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) physician/supplier procedure summary from 2000 to 2016 was utilized to assess overall utilization and comparative utilization at various time periods. The analysis of Medicare data from 2000 to 2016 showed an overall decrease in utilization of interventional techniques 0.6% per year from 2009 to 2016, whereas from 2000 to 2009, there was an increase of 11.8% per year per 100,000 individuals of the Medicare population. In addition, the United States experienced an increase of 0.7% per year of population growth, 3.2% of those 65 years or older and a 3% annual increase in Medicare participation from 2009 to 2016. Further analysis also showed a 1.7% annual decrease in the rate of utilization of epidural and adhesiolysis procedures per 100,000 individuals of the Medicare population, with a 2.2% decrease for disc procedures and other types of nerve blocks, whereas there was an increase of 0.8% annually for facet joint interventions and sacroiliac joint blocks from 2009 to 2016. Epidural and adhesiolysis procedures

  14. Comparative transcriptome analysis provides new insights into erect and prostrate growth in bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bing; Xiao, Xiaolin; Zong, Junqin; Chen, Jingbo; Li, Jianjian; Guo, Hailin; Liu, Jianxiu

    2017-10-21

    Bermudagrass (Cynodon dactylon L.) is a prominent warm-season turf and forage grass species with multiple applications. In most C. dactylon cultivars and accessions, erect-growing stems (shoot) and prostrate-growing stems (stolon) often coexist. These two types of stems are both formed through tillering but grow in two directions with different tiller angles. Elucidating the mechanism of tiller angle regulation in bermudagrass could provide important clues to breed cultivars with different plant architectural features for diverse usage. In this study, we compared the stem internode transcriptome of two bermudagrass wild accessions with extremely different tiller angles and stem growth directions. A total of 2088 and 12,141 unigenes were preferentially expressed in prostrate-growing wild accession C792 and erect-growing wild accession C793, respectively. Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) Orthology-based Annotation System (KOBAS) analyses further indicated that light- and gravity-responsive genes were enriched in accession C792, whereas lignin synthesis-related genes were enriched in accession C793, which well explains the difference in lignification of vascular bundles and mechanical tissues in the two accessions. These results not only expand our understanding of the genetic control of tiller angle and stem growth direction in bermudagrass but also provide insight for future molecular breeding of C. dactylon and other turfgrass species with different plant architectures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  15. A comparative analysis of massed vs. distributed practice on basic math fact fluency growth rates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schutte, Greg M; Duhon, Gary J; Solomon, Benjamin G; Poncy, Brian C; Moore, Kathryn; Story, Bailey

    2015-04-01

    To best remediate academic deficiencies, educators need to not only identify empirically validated interventions but also be able to apply instructional modifications that result in more efficient student learning. The current study compared the effect of massed and distributed practice with an explicit timing intervention to evaluate the extent to which these modifications lead to increased math fact fluency on basic addition problems. Forty-eight third-grade students were placed into one of three groups with each of the groups completing four 1-min math explicit timing procedures each day across 19 days. Group one completed all four 1-min timings consecutively; group two completed two back-to-back 1-min timings in the morning and two back-to-back 1-min timings in the afternoon, and group three completed one, 1-min independent timing four times distributed across the day. Growth curve modeling was used to examine the progress throughout the course of the study. Results suggested that students in the distributed practice conditions, both four times per day and two times per day, showed significantly higher fluency growth rates than those practicing only once per day in a massed format. These results indicate that combining distributed practice with explicit timing procedures is a useful modification that enhances student learning without the addition of extra instructional time when targeting math fact fluency. Copyright © 2015 Society for the Study of School Psychology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Comparative host-parasite population genetic structures: obligate fly ectoparasites on Galapagos seabirds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Iris I; Parker, Patricia G

    2013-08-01

    Parasites often have shorter generation times and, in some cases, faster mutation rates than their hosts, which can lead to greater population differentiation in the parasite relative to the host. Here we present a population genetic study of two ectoparasitic flies, Olfersia spinifera and Olfersia aenescens compared with their respective bird hosts, great frigatebirds (Fregata minor) and Nazca boobies (Sula granti). Olfersia spinifera is the vector of a haemosporidian parasite, Haemoproteus iwa, which infects frigatebirds throughout their range. Interestingly, there is no genetic differentiation in the haemosporidian parasite across this range despite strong genetic differentiation between Galapagos frigatebirds and their non-Galapagos conspecifics. It is possible that the broad distribution of this one H. iwa lineage could be facilitated by movement of infected O. spinifera. Therefore, we predicted more gene flow in both fly species compared with the bird hosts. Mitochondrial DNA sequence data from three genes per species indicated that despite marked differences in the genetic structure of the bird hosts, gene flow was very high in both fly species. A likely explanation involves non-breeding movements of hosts, including movement of juveniles, and movement by adult birds whose breeding attempt has failed, although we cannot rule out the possibility that closely related host species may be involved.

  17. Risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to the background population

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Helleberg, Marie; Gerstoft, Jan; Afzal, Shoaib

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The relative impact of immune deficiency and lifestyle-related factors on risk of cancer in the HIV-infected population is controversial. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with smoking, being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency. METHODS.......8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6-4.9; and IRR 11.5, 95% CI 6.5-20.5], wh