Metropolitan migration and population growth in selected developing countries.

Science.gov (United States)

1983-01-01

The purpose of this article is to estimate the components of metropolitan population growth in selected developing countries during 1960-1970 period. The study examines population growth in 26 cities: 5 are in Africa, 8 in Asia, and 13 in Latin America, using data from national census publications. These cities in general are the political capitals of their countries, but some additional large cities were selected in Brazil, Mexico, and South Africa. All cities, at the beginning of the 1960-1970 decade had over 500,000 population; Accra, the only exception, reached this population level during the 1960s. Some cities had over 4 million residents in 1970. Net migration contributed about 37% to total metropolitan population growth; the remainder of the growth is attributable to natural increase. Migration has a much stronger impact on metropolitan growth than suggested by the above figure: 1) Several metropolitan areas, for various reasons, are unlikely to receive many migrants; without those cities, the share of metropolitan growth from net migration is 44%. 2) Estimates of the natural increase of migrants after their arrival in the metropolitan areas, when added to migration itself, changes the total contribution of migration to 49% in some metropolitan areas. 3) Even where net migration contributes a smaller proportion to metropolitan growth than natural increase, the rates of net migration are generally high and should be viewed in the context of rapid metropolitan population growth from natural increase alone. Finally, the paper also compares the components of metropolitan growth with the components of growth in the remaining urban areas. The results show that the metropolitan areas, in general, grow faster than the remaining urban areas, and that this more rapid growth is mostly due to a higher rate of net migration. Given the significance of migration for metropolitan growth, further investigations of the effects of these migration streams, particularly with

Environmental vs Demographic Stochasticity in Population Growth

OpenAIRE

Braumann, C. A.

2010-01-01

Compares the effect on population growth of envinonmental stochasticity (random environmental variations described by stochastic differential equations) with demographic stochasticity (random variations in births and deaths described by branching processes and birth-and-death processes), in the density-independent and the density-dependent cases.

Population Growth Types in India, 1961-71

Science.gov (United States)

Chakravarti, A. K.

1976-01-01

An effective means of cartographic representation of India's population growth and its spatial characteristics is the focus of this paper. A population growth index and population growth types are discussed. (Author/ND)

Population growth and infant mortality

OpenAIRE

Fabella, Christina

2008-01-01

The relationship between population growth and economic outcomes is an issue of great policy significance. In the era of the Millennium Development Goals, poverty and its correlates have become the compelling issues. Economic growth may not automatically translate into reductions in poverty and its correlates (may not trickle down) if income distribution is at the same time worsening. We therefore investigate the direct effect of population growth on infant mortality for various income catego...

Canada's population: growth and dualism.

Science.gov (United States)

Beaujot, R P

1978-04-01

In Canada the current 1.3% population growth rate is causing some concern. Those concerned argue that such a rate of growth in combination with high levels of consumption could jeopardize the country's resource base and its comfortable style of living. Many Canadians are questioning high levels of immigration, for now that the fertility level is below replacement level, net immigration contributes substantially to population growth (over 1/3 in 1976). The growing proportion of non-Europeans among recent immigrants is causing resentment, and, in a tight job market, immigrants are regarded as threats to the World War 2 baby boom cohort who are now at working ages. The baby boom generation also puts stress on housing and health services, and it will increase the need for pension checks as it ages. Although French fertility is no longer high and immigration is no longer dominated by the British, the French group's 200-year struggle to preserve its identity continues on in the current effort of the Quebec government to enforce the use of French language by law within that province. Geography and climate dictate another demographic fact that divides the country and pervades its history. In addition to intense regionalism, uneven population distribution is responsible for 2 other concerns: the rapid growth of several already large cities and depopulation of many small communities. Focus in this discussion is on Canada's population growth in the past and as projected for the future, historical and current fertility, mortality and immigration trends, the search for a new immigration policy, the impact of the baby boom generation on the population's age structure and the problems this creates, and recent shifts in population distribution and in the country's ethnic and linguistic makeup. The population policy proposals evolved thus far involve to a great extent the use of immigration as a lever for achieving given population objectives.

Population growth, human development, and deforestation in biodiversity hotspots.

Science.gov (United States)

Jha, S; Bawa, K S

2006-06-01

Human population and development activities affect the rate of deforestation in biodiversity hotspots. We quantified the effect of human population growth and development on rates of deforestation and analyzed the relationship between these causal factors in the 1980s and 1990s. We compared the averages of population growth, human development index (HDI, which measures income, health, and education), and deforestation rate and computed correlations among these variables for countries that contain biodiversity hotspots. When population growth was high and HDI was low there was a high rate of deforestation, but when HDI was high, rate of deforestation was low, despite high population growth. The correlation among variables was significant for the 1990s but not for the 1980s. The relationship between population growth and HDI had a regional pattern that reflected the historical process of development. Based on the changes in HDI and deforestation rate over time, we identified two drivers of deforestation: policy choice and human-development constraints. Policy choices that disregard conservation may cause the loss of forests even in countries that are relatively developed. Lack of development in other countries, on the other hand, may increase the pressure on forests to meet the basic needs of the human population. Deforestation resulting from policy choices may be easier to fix than deforestation arising from human development constraints. To prevent deforestation in the countries that have such constraints, transfer of material and intellectual resources from developed countries may be needed. Popular interest in sustainable development in developed countries can facilitate the transfer of these resources.

Population growth changes targets for immunization.

Science.gov (United States)

Tuljapurkar, S; John, A M

1995-01-01

The faster the rate of population growth in developing countries, the less likely it is that current protocols for immunization against measles, rubella, and mumps will eradicate these childhood diseases. Standard protocols (timing, percentage of children to be immunized) do not take into account the rapid rates of population growth in developing countries (3.0% per year on average in sub-Saharan Africa and 2.0% in the rest of Africa, in Latin America, and in Asia, excluding China). Most public health planning models in this area were created based on static infant populations. The World Health Organization advises vaccinating at least 85% of children aged 6 to 9 months, a 3-month immunization window during which maternal antibodies are low (so the vaccination takes) and herd immunity is high (the probability that a child will encounter the disease is low because most children have been immunized). In practice, the immunization window in developing countries is 1 year or more. More susceptible children are present than assumed by the models. A larger number of susceptible babies are added each year during rapid population growth. As the age range for immunization widens, a higher percentage of children must be vaccinated to eradicate disease (chart). The proportion of each birth cohort that must be immunized rises as the population growth rate increases. At zero population growth, 94% must be vaccinated; at population growth rates greater than 3%, 98% must be vaccinated.

The role of population on economic growth and development: evidence from developing countries

OpenAIRE

Atanda, Akinwande A.; Aminu, Salaudeen B.; Alimi, Olorunfemi Y.

2012-01-01

The precise relationship between population growth and per capita income has been inconclusive in the literature and the nexus has been found not clearly explain the determinants of rapid population growth in developing countries that lacks fertility control and management framework. This forms the rationale for this study to access the trend of factors that influence rapid population growth in developing countries between 1980 and 2010. This paper examined the comparative trend review of pop...

Kinetic Model of Growth of Arthropoda Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Ershov, Yu. A.; Kuznetsov, M. A.

2018-05-01

Kinetic equations were derived for calculating the growth of crustacean populations ( Crustacea) based on the biological growth model suggested earlier using shrimp ( Caridea) populations as an example. The development cycle of successive stages for populations can be represented in the form of quasi-chemical equations. The kinetic equations that describe the development cycle of crustaceans allow quantitative prediction of the development of populations depending on conditions. In contrast to extrapolation-simulation models, in the developed kinetic model of biological growth the kinetic parameters are the experimental characteristics of population growth. Verification and parametric identification of the developed model on the basis of the experimental data showed agreement with experiment within the error of the measurement technique.

Do Class III patients have a different growth spurt than the general population?

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Yun-Sik; Lee, Shin-Jae; An, Hongseok; Donatelli, Richard E; Kim, Soo-Hwan

2012-11-01

Understanding the timing and length of the growth spurt of Class III prognathic patients is fundamental to the strategy of interceptive orthopedic orthodontics as well as to the timing of orthognathic surgery. Consequently, this study was undertaken to determine whether there are any significant differences in the stature growth pattern of Class III subjects compared with non-Class III subjects and the general population. Twelve-year longitudinal stature growth data were collected for 402 randomly selected adolescents in the general population, 55 Class III mandibular prognathic patients, and 37 non-Class III patients. The growth data were analyzed by using the traditional linear interpolation method and nonlinear growth functions. The 6 stature growth parameters were measured: age at takeoff, stature at takeoff, velocity at takeoff, age at peak height velocity, stature at peak height velocity, and velocity at peak height velocity. Comparisons in the stature growth parameters and 15 cephalometric variables among the general population, Class III subjects, and non-Class III subjects were made with multivariate analysis. Patients with Class III prognathism did not have different growth parameters compared with Class II subjects or the general population. This study does not allow meaningful conclusions with regard to the relationship of mandibular size and stature growth pattern. The application of nonlinear growth curves vs the traditional linear interpolation method was also discussed. Copyright © 2012 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Population and prehistory I: Food-dependent population growth in constant environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Charlotte T; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2008-06-01

We present a demographic model that describes the feedbacks between food supply, human mortality and fertility rates, and labor availability in expanding populations, where arable land area is not limiting. This model provides a quantitative framework to describe how environment, technology, and culture interact to influence the fates of preindustrial agricultural populations. We present equilibrium conditions and derive approximations for the equilibrium population growth rate, food availability, and other food-dependent measures of population well-being. We examine how the approximations respond to environmental changes and to human choices, and find that the impact of environmental quality depends upon whether it manifests through agricultural yield or maximum (food-independent) survival rates. Human choices can complement or offset environmental effects: greater labor investments increase both population growth and well-being, and therefore can counteract lower agricultural yield, while fertility control decreases the growth rate but can increase or decrease well-being. Finally we establish equilibrium stability criteria, and argue that the potential for loss of local stability at low population growth rates could have important consequences for populations that suffer significant environmental or demographic shocks.

Comparing Basal Area Growth Rates in Repeated Inventories: Simpson's Paradox in Forestry

Science.gov (United States)

Charles E. Thomas; Bernard R. Parresol

1989-01-01

Recent analyses of radial growth rates in southern commercial forests have shown that current rates are lower than past rates when compared diameter class by diameter class. These results have been interpreted as an indication that the growth rate of the forest is declining. In this paper, growth rates of forest populations in Alabama are studied. Basal area growth (a...

Population growth and economic development: two new U.S. perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Wulf, D; Klitsch, M

1986-01-01

This report compares the research paths of economic development reports by the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and the American Assembly of Columbia University. The NAS group, made up principally of economists and demographers, refrained from recommending population reduction targets, in contrast to the stronger terms of its 1971 report. A 1965 report by the Assembly spoke of population as a serious negative influence for economic development, political stability, and world peace, while the new report speaks of negative socioeconomic effects, and of the limiting of a person's right to control family size. The NAS agenda was established before the US delegation to the UN population conference in Mexico City retreated from declaring population growth to be a necessarily negative influencer of socioeconomic progress. The Assembly took the position that possible benefits of population growth would be far outweighed by factors such as resource depletion and women's health. The NAS maintained that growth might provide incentives for institutional adjustments (market development, investment in education) and control of growth should not be considered a substitute for such interventions. Both reports agree that control of fertility is a human right, but the NAS report examined the question of the acceptable degree of compulsion to be used to encourage couples. The Assembly objected to limiting access to family planning by defunding abortion programs oversease. Differences exist between the 2 reports in questins such as the negative impact of 1950's population growth, the synergistic effect of growth on many areas of human activity, the extent to which welfare of future generations is considered relevant today, and the adequacy of pure economic analysis in assessing need. Much study of population/development linkages is still required.

Geographically distinct Ceratophyllum demersum populations differ in growth, photosynthetic responses and phenotypic plasticity to nitrogen availability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hyldgaard, Benita; Sorrell, Brian Keith; Olesen, Birgit

2012-01-01

from New Zealand (NZ) and a noninvasive population from Denmark (DK). The populations were compared with a focus on both morphological and physiological traits. The NZ population had higher relative growth rates (RGRs) and photosynthesis rates (Pmax) (range: RGR, 0.06–0.08 per day; Pmax, 200–395 µmol O......2 g–1 dry mass (DM) h–1) compared with the Danish population (range: RGR, 0.02–0.05 per day; Pmax, 88–169 µmol O2 g–1 DM h–1). The larger, faster-growing NZ population also showed higher plasticity than the DK population in response to nitrogen in traits important for growth. Hence, the observed...... differences in growth behaviour between the two populations are a result of genetic differences and differences in their level of plasticity. Here, we show that two populations of the same species from similar climates but different geographical areas can differ in several ecophysiological traits after growth...

Political economy of population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, S; Mehta, H S

1987-01-01

Tracing the origin of political economy as a class-science, this paper focuses on the political economy of population growth. Exposing the limitations of Malthusian ideas and their invalidity even for the capitalist economies, it discusses the subsequent revival of the Malthusian model during the period of de-colonization and the misinterpretation of the relationship between population growth and development in the developing and developed countries. Taking India, China, and Japan as some case studies, the paper examines the relationship between birth rate levels and some correlates. It elaborates on the Indian experience, emphasizing the association of population growth with poverty and unemployment and lays bare some of the hidden causes of these phenomena. The authors examine some interstate variations in India and identify constraints and prospects of the existing population policy. The paper proposes outlines of a democratic population policy as an integral part of India's development strategy which should recognize human beings not simply as consumers but also as producers of material values. It pleads for 1) restructuring of property relations; 2) bringing down the mortality rates and raising of the literacy levels, especially among females; and 3) improving nutritional levels, as prerequisites for bringing down birth rates.

Population growth and its implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Badii, M. H.

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Human populations have grown at an unprecedented rate over the past three centuries. By 2001, the world population stood at 6.2 billion people. If the current trend of 1.4 % per year persists, the population will double in 51years. Most of that growth will occur in the less developed countries of Asia, Africa, and Latin America. There is a serious concern that the number of humans in the world and our impact on the environment will overload the life support systems of the earth. The crude birth rate is the number of births in a year divided by the average population. A more accurate measure of growth is the general fertility rate, which takes into account the age structure and fecundity of the population. The crude birth rate minus the crude death rate gives the rate of natural increase. When this rate reaches a level at which people are just replacing themselves, zero population growth is achieved. In the more highly developed countries of the world, growth has slowed are even reversed in recent years so that without immigration from other areas, population would be declining. The change from high birth and death rates that accompanies in industrialization is called a demographic transition. Many developing nations have already begun this transition. Death rates have fallen, but birth rates remain high. Some demographers believe that as infant mortality drops and economic development progresses so that people in these countries can be sure of secure future, they will complete the transition to a stable population or a high standard living. While larger populations bring many problems, they also may be a valuable resource of energy, intelligence, and enterprise that will make it possible to overcome resource limitation problems. A social just view argues that a more equitable distribution of wealth might reduce both excess population growth and environmental degradation. We have many more options now for controlling fertility than were available

The Population Growth and Carrying Capacity in Semarang City

Science.gov (United States)

Hariyanto; Hadi, Sudharto P.; Buchori, Imam

2018-02-01

Population growth and development of city activities take some lands to carry them. As a result, land use competition happens among persons, society or sector. Land necessity for settlement, industry, or sector has taken over farm land, therefore farm land has been converted intensively and massively. Chronologically, population growth will cause land necessity increase. Unproductive land, especially farm land will be converted. Furthermore, farm land conversion will cause carrying capacity change. Carrying capacity has certain bio capacity. With the population growth, it will increase resource consumption; on the other side, farm land conversion will decrease carrying capacity. The objective of the study is to know about the influence of population growth towards carrying capacity (bio capacity) in Semarang city. Land consumption per capita is indeed influenced by city population, the higher the population is, the lower the land consumption per capita. With the population growth, it will influence carrying capacity. Carrying capacity here is the ratio of area to population. Analytical descriptive method is applied in the study with all sub-districts in Semarang city as the analysis unit. Population here is sub-district area and population per sub-district in Semarang city. Population growth data period is from 2000 until 2015. Main variables of the study are area per sub-district, population, population growth, carrying capacity. Result of the study shows significant influence of carrying capacity decrease, especially some outskirts in Semarang city. This condition happens because the outskirts in Semarang city tend to have dense population growth. Range of carrying capacity in Semarang city is from 0,007 to 0,117 of 0 to 1. Almost all sub-districts in Semarang city show miserable condition, except Mijen and Tugu. The conclusion of the study is that population will decrease carrying capacity. Therefore, the government should control population growth by paying

Making a stand: five centuries of population growth in colonizing populations of Pinus ponderosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

2012-05-01

The processes underlying the development of new populations are important for understanding how species colonize new territory and form viable long-term populations. Life-history-mediated processes such as Allee effects and dispersal capability may interact with climate variability and site-specific factors to govern population success and failure over extended time frames. We studied four disjunct populations of ponderosa pine in the Bighorn Basin of north-central Wyoming to examine population growth spanning more than five centuries. The study populations are separated from continuous ponderosa pine forest by distances ranging from 15 to >100 km. Strong evidence indicates that the initial colonizing individuals are still present, yielding a nearly complete record of population history. All trees in each population were aged using dendroecological techniques. The populations were all founded between 1530 and 1655 cal yr CE. All show logistic growth patterns, with initial exponential growth followed by a slowing during the mid to late 20th century. Initial population growth was slower than expectations from a logistic regression model at all four populations, but increased during the mid-18th century. Initial lags in population growth may have been due to strong Allee effects. A combination of overcoming Allee effects and a transition to favorable climate conditions may have facilitated a mid-18th century pulse in population growth rate.

Comparison of customised growth charts v. standard population

African Journals Online (AJOL)

pregnant diabetic population using population-based growth charts and customised growth charts. Methods. ... Of the patients, 44 had type 1, 66 type 2 and 173 gestational diabetes. The growth of .... with diabetic ketoacidosis, of whom one.

Birth weight distribution of Hospital Geral do Grajaú population compared to São Paulo city population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Ricardo Dias Bertagnon

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: To compare the growth curves from a population from a large city suburban hospital with those of the city of São Paulo, São Paulo State, Brazil. Methods: At Hospital Geral do Grajaú, that serves the high pregnancy risk population lacking health facilities, of low education level and smaller number of prenatal visits and great morbidity, a growth curve was built for the newborns, as the Hospital is provided with updated equipment and personnel. The curve was built from the database available containing information on live births during the 2003 to 2007 period and totaling 9,952 newborns, as their weight at birth and gestational age were taken as parameters. The distribution curves of 3%, 10%, 50% and 90% of the Grajaú were compared to those of the city of São Paulo curve. Results: The curves did not significantly differ from those of the São Paulo curve percentiles, as shown by the mean deviation (Z score calculation, notwithstanding the higher rates for prematurity, low weight, teenager mothers and lack of prenatal visits among the Grajaú population as compared to those of São Paulo. Conclusions: The São Paulo city curve showed to be appropriate for the suburban population despite the existing differences.

The Growth of Older Inmate Populations: How Population Aging Explains Rising Age at Admission.

Science.gov (United States)

Luallen, Jeremy; Cutler, Christopher

2017-09-01

Older inmates are the fastest growing segment of the prison population; however, the reasons for this are not well understood. One explanation is that the general population is aging, driving prison age distributions to change. For this article, we study the role of population aging in prison growth by investigating how the baby boom phenomenon of post-World War II has contributed to the growth of older inmate populations. We identify the impact of population aging using simulation methods that explain prison growth as the combination of criminal justice processes. Overall, we find evidence that population aging has played a significant role in explaining the growth of older inmate populations, in particular among inmates aged between 50 and 64 years, contributing to as much as half of the observed increase in these groups since 2000. This finding stands in contrast to the notion that population aging has little explanatory power in describing the growth of prison populations and implies that older inmate groups are more sensitive to compositional changes in the general population. We argue that prediction-based modeling of prison growth should more seriously consider the impacts and consequences of demographic shifts among older prisoner populations. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Poverty-led higher population growth in Bangladesh.

Science.gov (United States)

Nakibullah, A; Rahman, A

1996-01-01

This article discusses the issue whether population growth is exogenous or endogenous in the economic development of Bangladesh. Overpopulation adversely affects food supplies, foreign exchange, and human resources. Moreover, it depresses savings per capita and retards growth of physical capital per labor. Underdeveloped countries, like Bangladesh, are faced with the problem of allocating resources between infrastructure, education, and health service that are essential for human capital development and population control measures. With this, determination whether fertility is exogenous or endogenous is important for policy purposes in the context of Bangladesh. Results showed that there is a correlation between population growth and real gross domestic products per capita. Based on Granger causality test, population growth is endogenous in the development process of Bangladesh and its overpopulation is due to poverty. Thus, there is a need for appropriate policy to take measures to improve human capital and decrease fertility rates.

Environmental degradation, energy consumption, population growth ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Based on the result, there is no evidence of unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions and energy consumption to economic growth and strong unidirectional causality running from CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth to population growth was found. The long run and short run estimates ...

Population causes and consequences of leading chronic diseases: a comparative analysis of prevailing explanations.

Science.gov (United States)

Stuckler, David

2008-06-01

The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations, such as population aging, are

Spatial variability and macro‐scale drivers of growth for native and introduced Flathead Catfish populations

Science.gov (United States)

Massie, Danielle L.; Smith, Geoffrey; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; Bunch, Aaron J.; Lucchesi, David O.; Wagner, Tyler

2018-01-01

Quantifying spatial variability in fish growth and identifying large‐scale drivers of growth are fundamental to many conservation and management decisions. Although fish growth studies often focus on a single population, it is becoming increasingly clear that large‐scale studies are likely needed for addressing transboundary management needs. This is particularly true for species with high recreational value and for those with negative ecological consequences when introduced outside of their native range, such as the Flathead Catfish Pylodictis olivaris. This study quantified growth variability of the Flathead Catfish across a large portion of its contemporary range to determine whether growth differences existed between habitat types (i.e., reservoirs and rivers) and between native and introduced populations. Additionally, we investigated whether growth parameters varied as a function of latitude and time since introduction (for introduced populations). Length‐at‐age data from 26 populations across 11 states in the USA were modeled using a Bayesian hierarchical von Bertalanffy growth model. Population‐specific growth trajectories revealed large variation in Flathead Catfish growth and relatively high uncertainty in growth parameters for some populations. Relatively high uncertainty was also evident when comparing populations and when quantifying large‐scale patterns. Growth parameters (Brody growth coefficient [K] and theoretical maximum average length [L∞]) were not different (based on overlapping 90% credible intervals) between habitat types or between native and introduced populations. For populations within the introduced range of Flathead Catfish, latitude was negatively correlated with K. For native populations, we estimated an 85% probability that L∞ estimates were negatively correlated with latitude. Contrary to predictions, time since introduction was not correlated with growth parameters in introduced populations of Flathead Catfish

Growth rate, population entropy, and perturbation theory.

OpenAIRE

Demetrius, L.

1989-01-01

This paper is concerned with the connection between two classes of population variables: measures of population growth rate—the Malthusian parameter, the net reproduction rate, the gross reproduction rate, and the mean life expectancy; and measures of demographic heterogeneity—population entropy. It is shown that the entropy functions predict the response of the growth rate parameters to perturbations in the age-specific fecundity and mortality schedule. These results are invoked to introduce...

Population Growth and Poverty in the Developing World.

Science.gov (United States)

Birdsall, Nancy

1980-01-01

The link between rapid population growth and the absolute poverty which currently afflicts 780 million people in developing countries (excluding China and other centrally planned economies) is examined. As a result of rapid population growth, many countries suffer slow per capita income growth, a lack of progress in reducing income inequality, and…

A Comparative Analysis of Prenatal Care and Fetal Growth in Eight South American Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Woodhouse, Cristina; Lopez Camelo, Jorge; Wehby, George L.

2014-01-01

There has been little work that comprehensively compared the relationship between prenatal care and infant health across multiple countries using similar data sources and analytical models. Such comparative analyses are useful for understanding the background of differences in infant health between populations. We evaluated the association between prenatal care visits and fetal growth measured by birth weight (BW) in grams or low birth weight (Prenatal care visits were significantly (at pprenatal care and fetal growth are population-specific and may not be generalizable to other populations. Furthermore, as one of the indicators for a country’s healthcare system for maternal and child health, prenatal care is a highly variable indicator between countries in South America. PMID:24625630

Population growth rate and genetic variability of small and large populations of Red flour beetle (Tribolium castaneum) following multigenerational exposure to copper.

Science.gov (United States)

Laskowski, Ryszard; Radwan, Jacek; Kuduk, Katarzyna; Mendrok, Magdalena; Kramarz, Paulina

2015-07-01

We reared large (1000 individuals) and small (20 individuals) populations of Tribolium castaneum on diet contaminated with copper in order to determine if the size of a population affects its ability to adapt to adverse environmental conditions. After 10 generations, we used microsatellite markers to estimate and subsequently compare the genetic variability of the copper-treated populations with that of the control populations, which were reared on uncontaminated medium. Additionally, we conducted a full cross-factorial experiment which evaluated the effects of 10 generations of "pre-exposure" to copper on a population's fitness in control and copper-contaminated environments. In order to distinguish results potentially arising from genetic adaptation from those due to non-genetic effects associated to parental exposure to copper, we subjected also F11 generation, originating from parents not exposed to copper, to the same cross-factorial experiment. The effects of long-term exposure to copper depended on population size: the growth rates of small populations that were pre-exposed to copper were inhibited compared to those of small populations reared in uncontaminated environments. Large Cu-exposed populations had a higher growth rate in the F10 generation compared to the control groups, while the growth rate of the F11 generation was unaffected by copper exposure history. The only factor that had a significant effect on genetic variability was population size, but this was to be expected given the large difference in the number of individuals between large and small populations. Neither copper contamination nor its interaction with population size affected the number of microsatellite alleles retained in the F10 generation.

Urban population and economic growth: South Asia perspective

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandip Sarker

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Previously economic growth was generally discussed in terms of foreign direct investment (FDI, educational growth, savings, investments, inflation as well as trade openness of a nation. Very recently it has been identified that population is one of the major determinants of economic growth of a nation. In the recent years, the study of urbanization has gained a matter of concern in developing countries as it has been recognized as part of a larger process of economic development which is affecting developing countries. South Asian countries are one of the emerging economics and growing at a faster rate over the past few years. At the same time, population of South Asia is growing at a significant rate. Therefore the study has attempted to identify the causal relationship between urban population and economic growth in South Asia using a panel data analysis. The study makes use of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF and Phillips-Perron (PP, Pesaran as well as Fisher methods for panel unit root test. The panel Pedroni cointegration test suggests that there is long run relationship between the variables. The further panel Vector Error Correction Model (VECM suggests that there is long run causality running from urban population growth to economic growth in South Asia. The study concludes that the growth of urban population can have significant impact on economic growth in South Asia in the long run.

Implications of population growth for Nigeria's development | Fan ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Nigeria's population that was 16 million in 1911 is about 140 million today. Attention invariably turns to the implications of this growth to the qualities of life for her inhabitants. The paper notes that high birth rate, low death rate and migration are the sources of the high population growth in Nigeria. The population then ...

Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives I Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

2016-02-01

In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size Neq) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R0, λ or Neq) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R0 showed the lowest EDR10 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h(-1) in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h(-1) in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR10 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR10 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h(-1) in fish to 12,000 μGy h(-1) in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h(-1) in mammals to 1800 μGy h(-1) in

Differences in Townsend's chipmunk populations between second- and old-growth forests in western Oregon

Science.gov (United States)

D.K. Rosenberg; R.G. Anthony

1993-01-01

Because Townsend's chipmunks (Tomias townsendii) may be important in maintaining natural ecosystem processes in forests in the central Oregon Cascade Range, we compared their population characteristics in young second-growth and old-growth forests. We live-trapped Townsend's chipmunks in 5 young (30-60 yr old) second-growth and 5 old-...

Effects of temperature and population density on von Bertalanffy growth parameters in Atlantic herring: a macro-ecological analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brunel, T.P.A.; Dickey-Collas, M.

2010-01-01

The effect of temperature and population density on the growth of Atlantic herring Clupea harengus was studied using a comparative approach applied to 15 North Atlantic populations. The von Bertalanffy (VB) equation was applied to describe mean growth of individuals in each population, both averaged

Population growth, accessibility spillovers and persistent borders: Historical growth in West-European municipalities.

Science.gov (United States)

Jacobs-Crisioni, Chris; Koomen, Eric

2017-06-01

Lack of cross-border transport supply has repeatedly been blamed for the fact that national borders limit spatial interaction and, consequently, the growth of border regions. This study applies an accessibility approach to investigate for most municipalities in ten countries in mainland West Europe if foreign transport supply is lagging behind, and if population growth in these municipalities has been affected by the limits that national borders have imposed on market access. To do so, data describing historical population changes and road networks between 1961 and 2011 have been used. The results show that in the study area, cross-border transport accessibility was not at a disadvantage in 1961 and has since then grown even more than domestic accessibility. However, municipal population growth has depended almost exclusively on domestic market access. Processes of economic international integration in the study area are found to coincide with the growth of cross-border accessibility, but do not have a clear coincidence with the effects of cross-border accessibility on population growth.

The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Bental, B

1989-03-01

The application of the Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework to the old age security hypothesis indicates that government intervention schemes can influence the relationship between population growth and capital accumulation. The most direct means of optimizing population growth is through taxes or subsidies that relate to the intergenerational transfer of wealth. A pay-as-you-go social security scheme, in which payment is predicated on the number of children the receiver has and is financed by taxes levied on the working population, emerges as the most likely intervention to produce the optimal steady state equilibrium. This system is able to correct any distortions the private sector may build into it. In contrast, a child support system, in which the government subsidizes or taxes workers according to their family size, can guarantee the optimal capital:labor ratio but not the optimal population growth rate. Thus, if the government seeks to decrease the population growth rate, the appropriate intervention is to levy a lump-sum social-security tax on workers and transfer the revenues to the old; the direction should be reversed if the goal is to increase population growth. Another alternative, a lump sum social security system, can guarantee optimal population growth but not a desirable capital:labor ratio. Finally, the introduction of money as a valued commodity into an economy with a high capital:labor ratio will also serve to decrease the population growth rate and solve the intergenerational transfer problem through the private sector without any need for government intervention.

Population Causes and Consequences of Leading Chronic Diseases: A Comparative Analysis of Prevailing Explanations

Science.gov (United States)

Stuckler, David

2008-01-01

Context The mortality numbers and rates of chronic disease are rising faster in developing than in developed countries. This article compares prevailing explanations of population chronic disease trends with theoretical and empirical models of population chronic disease epidemiology and assesses some economic consequences of the growth of chronic diseases in developing countries based on the experiences of developed countries. Methods Four decades of male mortality rates of cardiovascular and chronic noncommunicable diseases were regressed on changes in and levels of country income per capita, market integration, foreign direct investment, urbanization rates, and population aging in fifty-six countries for which comparative data were available. Neoclassical economic growth models were used to estimate the effect of the mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable diseases on economic growth in high-income OECD countries. Findings Processes of economic growth, market integration, foreign direct investment, and urbanization were significant determinants of long-term changes in mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, and the observed relationships with these social and economic factors were roughly three times stronger than the relationships with the population's aging. In low-income countries, higher levels of country income per capita, population urbanization, foreign direct investment, and market integration were associated with greater mortality rates of heart disease and chronic noncommunicable disease, less increased or sometimes reduced rates in middle-income countries, and decreased rates in high-income countries. Each 10 percent increase in the working-age mortality rates of chronic noncommunicable disease decreased economic growth rates by close to a half percent. Conclusions Macrosocial and macroeconomic forces are major determinants of population rises in chronic disease mortality, and some prevailing demographic explanations

Contribution of population growth to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan, 1880-1970.

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Yamaguchi, M; Kennedy, G

1984-09-01

The authors measured the positive and negative contributions of population and labor force growth to the growth of per capita income and sectoral output in Japan in the 1880-1970 period. A 2-sector growth accounting model that treats population and labor growth as separate variables was used. 3 alternative methods were used: the Residual method, the Verdoorn method, and the factor augmenting rate method. The total contribution of population cum labor growth to per capita income growth tended to be negative in the 1880-1930 period and positive in the 1930-40 and 1950-70. Over the 1880-1970 period as a whole, population cum labor growth made a positive contribution to per capita income growth under the Residual method (0.35%/year), the factor augmenting rate method (0.29%/year), and the Verdoorn method (0.01%/year). In addition, population cum labor growth contributed positively to sectoral output growth. The average contribution to agricultural output growth ranged from 1.03% (Verdoorn) - 1.46%/year (factor augmenting rate), while the average contribution to nonagricultural output growth ranged from 1.22% (Verdoorn) - 1.60%/year (Residual). Although these results are dependent on the model used, the fact that all 3 methods yielded consistent results suggests that population cum labor growth did make a positive contribution to per capita income and sectoral output growth in Japan. These findings imply that in economies where the rate of technical change in agricultural and nonagricultural sectors exceeds population growth, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities may be preferable; on the other hand, policies that reduce agricultural elasticities are to be avoided in economies with low rates of technical change. Moreover, in the early stages of economic development, policies that increase agricultural income and price elasticities should be considered.

Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Trotter, Meredith V; Krishna-Kumar, Siddharth; Tuljapurkar, Shripad

2013-03-01

Populations in variable environments are described by both a mean growth rate and a variance of stochastic population growth. Increasing variance will increase the width of confidence bounds around estimates of population size, growth, probability of and time to quasi-extinction. However, traditional sensitivity analyses of stochastic matrix models only consider the sensitivity of the mean growth rate. We derive an exact method for calculating the sensitivity of the variance in population growth to changes in demographic parameters. Sensitivities of the variance also allow a new sensitivity calculation for the cumulative probability of quasi-extinction. We apply this new analysis tool to an empirical dataset on at-risk polar bears to demonstrate its utility in conservation biology We find that in many cases a change in life history parameters will increase both the mean and variance of population growth of polar bears. This counterintuitive behaviour of the variance complicates predictions about overall population impacts of management interventions. Sensitivity calculations for cumulative extinction risk factor in changes to both mean and variance, providing a highly useful quantitative tool for conservation management. The mean stochastic growth rate and its sensitivities do not fully describe the dynamics of population growth. The use of variance sensitivities gives a more complete understanding of population dynamics and facilitates the calculation of new sensitivities for extinction processes.

Economic consequences of population size, structure and growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, R

1983-01-01

There seems to be 4 major approaches to conceptualizing and modeling demographic influences on economic and social welfare. These approaches are combined in various ways to construct richer and more comprehensive models. The basic approaches are: demographic influences on household or family behavior; population growth and reproducible capital; population size and fixed factors; and population and advantages of scale. These 4 models emphasize the supply side effects of population. A few of the ways in which these theories have been combined are sketched. Neoclassical growth models often have been combined with age distributed populations of individuals (or households), assumed to pursue optimal life cycle consumption and saving. In some well known development models, neoclassical growth models for the modern sector are linked by labor markets and migration to fixed factor (land) models of the traditional (agricultural) sector. A whole series of macro simulation models for developed and developing countries was based on single sector neoclassical growth models with age distributed populations. Yet, typically the household level foundations of assumed age distribution effects were not worked out. Simon's (1977) simulation models are in a class by themselves, for they are the only models that attempt to incorporate all the kinds of effects discussed. The economic demography of the individual and family cycle, as it is affected by regimes of fertility, mortality, and nuptiality, taken as given, are considered. The examination touches on many of the purported consequences of aggregate population growth and age composition, since so many of these are based implicitly or explicitly on assertions about micro level behavior. Demographic influences on saving and consumption, on general labor supply and female labor supply, and on problems of youth and old age dependency frequently fall in this category. Finally, attention is focused specifically on macro economic issues in

Environmental impact of population growth

Science.gov (United States)

Naylor, Rosamond; Matson, Pamela

Earth's population currently numbers 5.4 billion; even given optimistic assumptions for reduction in growth rates, the number will double by the middle of the next century with most of the increase in the developing countries. Rapid population growth in the developing world raises the fundamental dilemma of how to alleviate chronic hunger and poverty in the short run while preserving the atmosphere and ecosystem services required for long-term human and biospheric sustenance. This dilemma, and the compromises required to solve it, were discussed by twenty-five researchers from five countries at the Aspen Global Change Institute 1992 Summer Science Session III, Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible?, held from August 16 to 28, in Aspen, Colo.

Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

OpenAIRE

Axel Kristinsson; Árni Daníel Júlíusson

2016-01-01

A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionar...

The end of world population growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lutz, W; Sanderson, W; Scherbov, S

2001-01-01

There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting(1), here we show that there

Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Hüsler, A. D.; Sornette, D.

2014-10-01

We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend.

Rapid Population Growth-Cause or Result of Global Problems?

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Richard H.

Explosive population growth is a symptom of the world's unjust and inequitable social, political, and economic conditions. The current rate of growth is staggering, particularly in the cities of the underdeveloped countries. While some progress has been made in slowing population growth, several factors still contribute to its momentum. One of…

Economic analyses of rapid population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Birdsall, N

1989-01-01

"Discussion of the macroeconomic consequences of rapid population growth is organized into three schools: pessimists, optimists, and the recent revisionists. For the revisionists, differing views are presented about the pervasiveness and relevance of market failures, such as the negative externalities of childbearing, and about the ability of families and institutions to adjust rapidly to changes brought on by rapid population growth. A welfare economics approach is used to review the merits of various public policies to reduce fertility, including public financing of family planning services and taxes and incentives associated with childbearing." The focus is on developing countries. excerpt

Customized versus population-based growth curves: prediction of low body fat percent at term corrected gestational age following preterm birth.

Science.gov (United States)

Law, Tameeka L; Katikaneni, Lakshmi D; Taylor, Sarah N; Korte, Jeffrey E; Ebeling, Myla D; Wagner, Carol L; Newman, Roger B

2012-07-01

Compare customized versus population-based growth curves for identification of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and body fat percent (BF%) among preterm infants. Prospective cohort study of 204 preterm infants classified as SGA or appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) by population-based and customized growth curves. BF% was determined by air-displacement plethysmography. Differences between groups were compared using bivariable and multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses. Customized curves reclassified 30% of the preterm infants as SGA. SGA infants identified by customized method only had significantly lower BF% (13.8 ± 6.0) than the AGA (16.2 ± 6.3, p = 0.02) infants and similar to the SGA infants classified by both methods (14.6 ± 6.7, p = 0.51). Customized growth curves were a significant predictor of BF% (p = 0.02), whereas population-based growth curves were not a significant independent predictor of BF% (p = 0.50) at term corrected gestational age. Customized growth potential improves the differentiation of SGA infants and low BF% compared with a standard population-based growth curve among a cohort of preterm infants.

Diet quality limits summer growth of field vole populations.

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Kristian M Forbes

Full Text Available Marked variation occurs in both seasonal and multiannual population density peaks of northern European small mammal species, including voles. The availability of dietary proteins is a key factor limiting the population growth of herbivore species. The objective of this study is to investigate the degree to which protein availability influences the growth of increasing vole populations. We hypothesise that the summer growth of folivorous vole populations is positively associated with dietary protein availability. A field experiment was conducted over a summer reproductive period in 18 vegetated enclosures. Populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis were randomised amongst three treatment groups: 1 food supplementation with ad libitum high protein (30% dry weight pellets, 2 food supplementation with ad libitum low protein (1% dry weight; both supplemented foods had equivalent energy content pellets, and 3 control (no food supplementation, n = 6 per treatment. Vole density, survival, demographic attributes and condition indicators were monitored with live-trapping and blood sampling. Highest final vole densities were attained in populations that received high protein supplementation and lowest in low protein populations. Control populations displayed intermediate densities. The survival rate of voles was similar in all treatment groups. The proportion of females, and of those that were pregnant or lactating, was highest in the high protein supplemented populations. This suggests that variation in reproductive, rather than survival rates of voles, accounted for density differences between the treatment groups. We found no clear association between population demography and individual physiological condition. Our results demonstrate that dietary protein availability limits vole population growth during the summer growing season. This suggests that the nutritional quality of forage may be an underestimated source of interannual variation in the

Human Capital, Population Growth and Economic Development: Beyond Correlations

OpenAIRE

Rosenzweig, Mark R.

1987-01-01

Empirical evidence on three assertions commonly-made by population policy advocates about the relationships among population growth, human capital formation and economic development is discussed and evaluated in the light of economic-biological models of household behavior and of its relevance to population policy. The three assertions are that (a) population growth and human capital investments jointly reflect and respond to changes in the economic environment, (b) larger families directly i...

Lebensraum: paradoxically, population growth may eventually end wars.

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, J L

1989-03-01

Population growth may progressively reduce 1 of the motives for making war. Namely, population growth threatens shortages of resources, and especially land. Impending shortages cause a search for ways to mitigate the shortages. The discoveries eventually produce greater availability of resources than if population growth and pressure on resources had never occurred. The argument runs as follows: 1) Rhetoric about resources scarcity induced by population density has often contributed to international conflict, even if economics has not been the main motive in making war. 2) In the pre-modern era, war to obtain land and other resources may sometimes have been an economically sound policy. 3) Politicians and others in industrially developed nations believe resources may still be a casus belli. 4) Land and other productive resources are no longer worth acquiring at the cost of war.

Genomic growth curves of an outbred pig population

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Fabyano Fonseca e Silva

2013-01-01

Full Text Available In the current post-genomic era, the genetic basis of pig growth can be understood by assessing SNP marker effects and genomic breeding values (GEBV based on estimates of these growth curve parameters as phenotypes. Although various statistical methods, such as random regression (RR-BLUP and Bayesian LASSO (BL, have been applied to genomic selection (GS, none of these has yet been used in a growth curve approach. In this work, we compared the accuracies of RR-BLUP and BL using empirical weight-age data from an outbred F2 (Brazilian Piau X commercial population. The phenotypes were determined by parameter estimates using a nonlinear logistic regression model and the halothane gene was considered as a marker for evaluating the assumptions of the GS methods in relation to the genetic variation explained by each locus. BL yielded more accurate values for all of the phenotypes evaluated and was used to estimate SNP effects and GEBV vectors. The latter allowed the construction of genomic growth curves, which showed substantial genetic discrimination among animals in the final growth phase. The SNP effect estimates allowed identification of the most relevant markers for each phenotype, the positions of which were coincident with reported QTL regions for growth traits.

The outlook for population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Ronald

2011-07-29

Projections of population size, growth rates, and age distribution, although extending to distant horizons, shape policies today for the economy, environment, and government programs such as public pensions and health care. The projections can lead to costly policy adjustments, which in turn can cause political and economic turmoil. The United Nations projects global population to grow from about 7 billion today to 9.3 billion in 2050 and 10.1 billion in 2100, while the Old Age Dependency Ratio doubles by 2050 and triples by 2100. How are such population projections made, and how certain can we be about the trends they foresee?

Influence of Plant Population and Nitrogen-Fertilizer at Various Levels on Growth and Growth Efficiency of Maize

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M. I. Tajul

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Field experiments were conducted to evaluate plant population and N-fertilizer effects on yield and yield components of maize (Zea mays L.. Three levels of plant populations (53000, 66000, and 800000 plants ha−1 corresponding to spacings of 75 × 25, 60 × 25, and 50 × 25 cm and 4 doses of N (100, 140, 180, and 220 kg ha−1 were the treatment variables. Results revealed that plant growth, light interception (LI, yield attributes, and grain yield varied significantly due to the variations in population density and N-rates. Crop growth rate (CGR was the highest with the population of 80,000 ha−1 receiving 220 kg N ha−1, while relative growth rate (RGR showed an opposite trend of CGR. Light absorption was maximum when most of densely populated plant received the highest amount of N (220 kg N ha−1. Response of soil-plant-analysis development (SPAD value as well as N-content to N-rates was found significant. Plant height was the maximum at the lowest plant density with the highest amount of N. Plants that received 180 kg N ha−1 with 80,000 plants ha−1 had larger foliage, greater SPAD value, and higher amount of grains cob−1 that contributed to the maximum yield (5.03 t ha−1 and the maximum harvest index (HI compared to the plants in other treatments.

Migration, urban population growth and regional disparity in China

OpenAIRE

Renard, Mary-Françoise; Xu, Zelai; Zhu, Nong

2011-01-01

The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of city population growth in China during the 1990s', as well as the determinants of migrations towards cities, which constitutes the main source of urban population growth in this period. A second objective is to identify regional differences in the urban growth and migrations, that is, whether urban growth and migration patterns are different between coastal and inland provinces. Additionally, we are interested in the differences...

Population modelling to compare chronic external radiotoxicity between individual and population endpoints in four taxonomic groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alonzo, Frédéric; Hertel-Aas, Turid; Real, Almudena; Lance, Emilie; Garcia-Sanchez, Laurent; Bradshaw, Clare; Vives i Batlle, Jordi; Oughton, Deborah H.; Garnier-Laplace, Jacqueline

2016-01-01

In this study, we modelled population responses to chronic external gamma radiation in 12 laboratory species (including aquatic and soil invertebrates, fish and terrestrial mammals). Our aim was to compare radiosensitivity between individual and population endpoints and to examine how internationally proposed benchmarks for environmental radioprotection protected species against various risks at the population level. To do so, we used population matrix models, combining life history and chronic radiotoxicity data (derived from laboratory experiments and described in the literature and the FREDERICA database) to simulate changes in population endpoints (net reproductive rate R_0, asymptotic population growth rate λ, equilibrium population size N_e_q) for a range of dose rates. Elasticity analyses of models showed that population responses differed depending on the affected individual endpoint (juvenile or adult survival, delay in maturity or reduction in fecundity), the considered population endpoint (R_0, λ or N_e_q) and the life history of the studied species. Among population endpoints, net reproductive rate R_0 showed the lowest EDR_1_0 (effective dose rate inducing 10% effect) in all species, with values ranging from 26 μGy h"−"1 in the mouse Mus musculus to 38,000 μGy h"−"1 in the fish Oryzias latipes. For several species, EDR_1_0 for population endpoints were lower than the lowest EDR_1_0 for individual endpoints. Various population level risks, differing in severity for the population, were investigated. Population extinction (predicted when radiation effects caused population growth rate λ to decrease below 1, indicating that no population growth in the long term) was predicted for dose rates ranging from 2700 μGy h"−"1 in fish to 12,000 μGy h"−"1 in soil invertebrates. A milder risk, that population growth rate λ will be reduced by 10% of the reduction causing extinction, was predicted for dose rates ranging from 24 μGy h"−"1

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

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Eleanor S Devenish Nelson

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

Habitat-specific population growth of a farmland bird.

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Debora Arlt

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: To assess population persistence of species living in heterogeneous landscapes, the effects of habitat on reproduction and survival have to be investigated. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a matrix population model to estimate habitat-specific population growth rates for a population of northern wheatears Oenanthe oenanthe breeding in farmland consisting of a mosaic of distinct habitat (land use types. Based on extensive long-term data on reproduction and survival, habitats characterised by tall field layers (spring- and autumn-sown crop fields, ungrazed grasslands displayed negative stochastic population growth rates (log lambda(s: -0.332, -0.429, -0.168, respectively, that were markedly lower than growth rates of habitats characterised by permanently short field layers (pastures grazed by cattle or horses, and farmyards, log lambda(s: -0.056, +0.081, -0.059. Although habitats differed with respect to reproductive performance, differences in habitat-specific population growth were largely due to differences in adult and first-year survival rates, as shown by a life table response experiment (LTRE. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results show that estimation of survival rates is important for realistic assessments of habitat quality. Results also indicate that grazed grasslands and farmyards may act as source habitats, whereas crop fields and ungrazed grasslands with tall field layers may act as sink habitats. We suggest that the strong decline of northern wheatears in Swedish farmland may be linked to the corresponding observed loss of high quality breeding habitat, i.e. grazed semi-natural grasslands.

Growth in an English population from the Industrial Revolution.

Science.gov (United States)

Mays, S; Brickley, M; Ives, R

2008-05-01

The rapid urbanization of the Industrial Revolution in 18th-19th century England presented new health challenges. Our aim is to investigate using English skeletal remains whether the living conditions for an urban working class group in the Industrial Revolution negatively impacted upon their skeletal growth compared with a population from a rural agrarian parish. The Industrial Revolution skeletal material is from St Martin's Churchyard, Birmingham (SMB), West Midlands. It dates primarily from the first half of the nineteenth century when Birmingham was a major manufacturing center. The rural group is from Wharram Percy (WP), North Yorkshire, and dates from 10th-19th century AD. The methodology involves plotting diaphyseal bone lengths versus dental age for subadults. No overall difference was found between the two populations in bone length-for-age among the 2- to 18-year cohort. However the younger parts of the SMB cohort were smaller than at WP; the opposite was true of the older parts of the cohort. Growth rate, as inferred from crosssectional data, appeared greater at SMB than at WP. The only result consistent with expectations is the larger bone dimensions in young children from WP, but this likely reflects prolonged breastfeeding at WP not differences in urban and rural environments. That the deleterious health effects that we know accompanied the major transition in human society from a rural agrarian to an urban industrialized living environment should be little manifest in skeletal endochondral growth data is discouraging for those who would use such methodology to monitor health in earlier populations. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Growth of the human lens in the Indian adult population: Preliminary observations

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Ashik Mohamed

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Context: The eye lens grows throughout life by the addition of new cells inside the surrounding capsule. How this growth affects the properties of the lens is essential for understanding disorders such as cataract and presbyopia. Aims: To examine growth of the human lens in the Indian population and compare this with the growth in Western populations by measuring in vitro dimensions together with wet and dry weights. Settings and Design: The study was conducted at the research wing of a tertiary eye care center in South India and the study design was prospective. Materials and Methods: Lenses were removed from eye bank eyes and their dimensions measured with a digital caliper. They were then carefully blotted dry and weighed before being placed in 5% buffered formalin. After 1 week fixation, the lenses were dried at 80 °C until constant weight was achieved. The constant weight was noted as the dry weight of the lens. Statistical Analysis Used: Lens parameters were analyzed as a function of age using linear and logarithmic regression methods. Results: Data were obtained for 251 lenses, aged 16-93 years, within a median postmortem time of 22 h. Both wet and dry weights increased linearly at 1.24 and 0.44 mg/year, respectively, throughout adult life. The dimensions also increased continuously throughout this time. Conclusions: Over the age range examined, lens growth in the Indian population is very similar to that in Western populations.

Population growth in Shanghai and its characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, K

1985-07-01

There has been an astonishing change in Shanghai's natural population growth over the past 34 years, with a significant difference between urban and suburban areas. In 1954, the birth rate reached as high as 52.6/1000 and the death rate dropped as low as 7.1/1000, the natural growth rate being 45.4/1000. The substantial decline in the rate of natural increase in Shanghai is due to the enormous achievements of family planning programs. In 1983, the 1-child rate of Shanghai areas was 96.56%, with that in urban areas reaching 99.36% and that in rural areas 92.4%. In the last decade, with the development of industrial production, several satellite cities have been built, attracting some of the urban residents from the city proper. The 5 characteristics relating to Shanghai's population growth are: 1) population density is high and population distribution is uneven; 2) fertility declined drastically in the 1970s; 3) the proportion of young is declining and the proportion of aged is increasing; 4) the mortality has been declining steadily, resulting in a longer life expectancy; and 5) the sex ratio has evened out since the liberation when males greatly outnumbered females. These factors point out the arduous task for family planning in the coming years. The enormous population and the increasing number of young people at child bearing ages point out the necessity of carrying on the family planning program.

Population size structure indices and growth standards for Salmo (trutta trutta Linnaeus, 1758 in Central Italy

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Pedicillo G.

2010-10-01

Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to provide reference data on the growth and population structure of brown trout Salmo (trutta trutta Linnaeus, in Central Italy. Standards for growth (percentiles and a standard growth model were developed from the von Bertalanffy growth model by using length-at-age data obtained from 122 sampling sites in the River Tiber basin. Length-frequency indices provide a numeric estimation for deviations of the population structure from a balanced population. We adapted the traditional North American Relative Stock Density (RSD and Proportional Stock Density (PSD indices to brown trout populations in Central Italy by means of two methods. In the first method, the benchmarks of length categories were established by using percentages applied to the largest individual in the dataset. In the second method, asymptotic length and size at maturity were used to define the length categories for index calculation. Both methods were tested on length-frequency data from 263 sampling sites in the River Tiber basin. The results showed that the PSD calculated by the first method provided a better insight into the population structures of brown trout. These results provide tools that will help ichthyologists and fish managers to compare the growth and population structure of brown trout throughout Central Italy.

Population, internal migration, and economic growth: an empirical analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Moreland, R S

1982-01-01

The role of population growth in the development process has received increasing attention during the last 15 years, as manifested in the literature in 3 broad categories. In the 1st category, the effects of rapid population growth on the growth of income have been studied with the use of simulation models, which sometimes include endogenous population growth. The 2nd category of the literature is concerned with theoretical and empirical studies of the economic determinants of various demographic rates--most usually fertility. Internal migration and dualism is the 3rd population development category to recieve attention. An attempt is made to synthesize developments in these 3 categories by estimating from a consistent set of data a 2 sector economic demographic model in which the major demographic rates are endogenous. Due to the fact that the interactions between economic and demographic variables are nonlinear and complex, the indirect effects of changes in a particular variable may depend upon the balance of numerical coefficients. For this reason it was felt that the model should be empirically grounded. A brief overview of the model is provided, and the model is compared to some similar existing models. Estimation of the model's 9 behavior equations is discussed, followed by a "base run" simulation of a developing country "stereotype" and a report of a number of policy experiments. The relatively new field of economic determinants of demographic variables was drawn upon in estimating equations to endogenize demographic phenomena that are frequently left exogenous in simulation models. The fertility and labor force participation rate functions are fairly standard, but a step beyong existing literature was taken in the life expectancy and intersectorial migration equations. On the economic side, sectoral savings functions were estimated, and it was found that the marginal propensity to save is lower in agriculture than in nonagriculture. Testing to see the

Modeling Population Growth and Extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Sheldon P.

2009-01-01

The exponential growth model and the logistic model typically introduced in the mathematics curriculum presume that a population grows exclusively. In reality, species can also die out and more sophisticated models that take the possibility of extinction into account are needed. In this article, two extensions of the logistic model are considered,…

TOPICAL PROBLEMS: The phenomenological theory of world population growth

Science.gov (United States)

Kapitza, Sergei P.

1996-01-01

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant. Demographic data describe this process in a concise and quantitative way in its past and present. Analysing this development it is possible by applying the concepts of systems analysis and synergetics, to work out a mathematical model for a phenomenological description of the global demographic process and to project its trends into the future. Assuming self-similarity as the dynamic principle of development, growth can be described practically over the whole of human history, assuming the growth rate to be proportional to the square of the number of people. The large parameter of the theory and the effective size of a coherent population group is of the order of 105 and the microscopic parameter of the phenomenology is the human lifespan. The demographic transition — a transition to a stabilised world population of some 14 billion in a foreseeable future — is a systemic singularity and is determined by the inherent pattern of growth of an open system, rather than by the lack of resources. The development of a quantitative nonlinear theory of the world population is of interest for interdisciplinary research in anthropology and demography, history and sociology, for population genetics and epidemiology, for studies in evolution of humankind and the origin of man. The model also provides insight into the stability of growth and the present predicament of humankind, and provides a setting for discussing the main global problems.

Comparisons of Growth and Survival Performance Among Selected Families and Wild Populations of Fenneropenaeus chinensis

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Kun; Kong, Jie; Meng, Xianhong; Luan, Sheng; Cao, Baoxiang; Chen, Baolong

2018-04-01

In this study, families of selected population for growth (SP_BWT), selected population for white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) resistance (SP_RW), Bohai wild population (WP_BH) and Huanghai wild population (WP_HH) of F. chinensis were constructed through artificial insemination and with the standardized procedure of larvae rearing. Growth and survival performance were studied among four populations after a 70 days common test. The results showed that the maximum least square mean of body weight was 17.50 g in SP_BWT while the minimum was 13.03 g in WP_HH. Compared with WP_BH, body weight of SP_BWT increased by 23.41% ( P 0.05). Body weights of SP_BWT and SP_RW were significantly higher than that of WP_HH, which increased by 34.31% ( P populations was 0.19, 0.18, 0.17 and 0.16 g d-1, respectively. Coefficient of variation of body weight among four populations was high, which ranged from 32.67% to 35.25%. Such a range showed that there was the potentiality for further improvement in selected populations. Coefficient of variation of survival rate among four populations was low, varying between 3.20% and 5.90%. The difference of survival was highly significant ( P populations ( P growth performances were also observed among different families in each population. The body weight of 798F family was the highest. The absolute growth rate (AGR) was 0.25 g d-1, 150% higher than that of the lowest one, 0.1 g d-1 in 807F family. Survival rate of families among four populations was different. The highest was 94.74%, and the lowest was 71.88%.

Nigerian population growth and its implications for economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Okpala, A O

1990-12-01

The population of Nigeria is growing at a rate of 3.75%/year indicating a doubling of the population every 22 years. Demographers estimated the population to be 91,178,000 in 1985. Even though population density is high (288 people/square mile), it is not equally distributed. It is highest in the south and southwest urban areas such as Lagos (1045 people/square mile) and lowest in the northeast (75 people/square mile). Moreover rural-urban migration is growing. A major reason for rural-urban migration is the dual nature of the economy in Nigeria. In urban areas, economic development brings about higher standards of living, but, in rural areas, a subsistence economy predominates. This coupled with rapid population growth results in small or no growth in per capita income. Only if the government were to integrate redistribution policies into complete economic development plans should it consider redistributing the population. It should stress rural development (e.g., incentives for firms to set up in rural areas). Further it should move some government offices to rural areas. The government also needs to adopt population policies encouraging the lowering of fertility levels. If it were to provide education through the secondary and prevocational education level free of charge, educated women will lower their fertility. Sex education should be included in the curriculum. Further the government must play an active role in family planning programs, especially educating rural women about family planning. It should also use the mass media to promote small family size, but it should not dictate family size. It also needs to recognize that population growth puts much pressure on the environment. For example, population growth causes soil erosion, nutrient exhaustion, rapid deforestation, and other problems which render the land unusable for agriculture.

Population growth and development of Liposcelis pearmani (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

Science.gov (United States)

Aminatou, B A; Gautam, S G; Opit, G P; Talley, J; Shakya, K

2011-08-01

Psocids of genus Liposcelis are now considered serious pests of stored products. We investigated the effects of eight temperatures (22.5, 25.0, 27.5, 30.0, 32.5, 35.0, 37.5, and 40.0°C) and four relative humidities (43, 55, 63, and 75%) on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis pearmani Lienhard. L. pearmani did not survive at 37.5 and 40.0°C, at all relative humidities tested; at 43% RH, at all temperatures tested; and at 55% RH, at 32.5 and 35°C. The greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5°C and 75% RH (32-fold growth). L. pearmani males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 17, 63, and 20%, respectively. Female L. pearmani have two to five instars, and the percentages of females with two, three, four, and five instars were 5, 39, 55, and 1%, respectively. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages. Based on 30-d population growth, L. pearmani cannot survive at temperatures >35.0°C; does not thrive at low relative humidities (55%), at temperatures above 25°C; and has a high optimum relative humidity for population growth (75%). Therefore, we expect it to have a more limited distribution compared with other Liposcelis species. These data provide a better understanding of how temperature and RH may influence L. pearmani population dynamics and can be used in population growth models to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid, and to predict its occurrence.

Impact of demographic policy on population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Podyashchikh, P

1968-01-01

Various bourgeois theories, including the reactionary Malthusianism and its variants, challenge the Marxist-Leninist revolutionary theory on the growth of population. Bourgeois science maintains that unchanging biological laws of proliferation form the foundation of social life. Malthus, in his "An Essay on the Principle of Population," contends that population increases in a geometric rate, while means of subsistence tend to increase only in an arithmetic rate: neither the way of production nor social conditions but this law of nature in control of proliferation had been the cause of overpopulation, which again leads to misery, hunger, and unemployment. From this follows the possible conclusion that the working classes should be concerned not about how to change the social order but how to reduce the number of childbirths. Progressive science views the laws of social life in a totally different way. Marxism-Leninism teaches that population size, despite the markedly important role played by it in historical progress, fails to represent that main force of social progress which determines the mode of production and of the distribution of material goods, but just the reverse: the mode of production determines the growth of population, the changes in its density and composition. Marxism-Leninism teaches that each historical stage of production (slavery, feudalism, capitalism) has its own special, historically valid demographic law. Bourgeois science maintains that humankind faces an absolute overpopulation caused by the means of production lagging behind the growth of population. Actually this is only a relative overpopulation due to the fact that capitalistic production is subjected to the interests of increasing capitalistic profit and not to those of meeting the demands of population. In socialist countries, production is incessantly developing and expanding, and employment of the entire productive population is ensured. Consequently, the problem of relative

On the theory of global population growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kapitza, Sergei P

2010-01-01

Ours is an epoch of global demographic revolution, a time of a rapid transition from explosive population growth to a low reproduction level. This, possibly the most momentous change ever witnessed by humankind has, first and foremost, important implications for the dynamics of population. But it also affects billions of people in all aspects of their lives, and it is for this reason that demographic processes have grown into a vast problem, both globally and in Russia. Their fundamental understanding will to a large extent impact the present, the short-term future following the current critical epoch, the stable and uniform global development and its priorities, and indeed global security. Quantitative treatment of historical processes is reached using the phenomenological theory of mankind's population growth. This theory relies on the concepts and methods of physics and its conclusions should take into account the ideas of economics and genetics. (interdisciplinary physics)

[The decline in the population growth rate--a priority issue in international politics].

Science.gov (United States)

Rhein, E

1994-08-25

The Third International UN Conference on Population and Development took place in Cairo in early September 1994 with the participation of 200 governments and 1000 nongovernmental organizations to discuss ways of stabilizing world population at the possible lowest level and how industrialized countries could contribute to this effort. As a consequence of the advances in reproductive medicine the use of contraceptives skyrocketed: in 1994 more than half of men and women were using contraception compared to only 5% in 1950. However, the demographic momentum would still increase world population for another 100 years, even if fertility would drop to 2.2 children per couple (compared to 4 children in 1990). Nevertheless, the present generation could be instrumental in deciding whether the world's population will remain around 8 billion or reach 12 billion between 2050 and 2150. Poor countries can no longer afford an annual growth rate of 2-4% while also trying to improve living standards; this would require an economic growth rate of 6-8%. For the control of population growth both a sustainable environmental policy in the North, with rapid transition to renewable energy and recycling, and a more effective population policy in the South are needed. Family planning (FP) is the precondition of stabilization. The global FP outlays are envisioned to double from the 1994 figure of $5 billion to over $10 billion in the year 2000, with donor contributions to increase from 20% to 40% of the total. The US contribution is to double from $500 million by 2000, while the European Commission decided to boost expenditures for FP from DM 30 million in 1994 to DM 600 million by 2000. Japan is also expending $3 billion during this period. Recent promising developments have emerged: national pronatalist policies have diminished sharply and the pronatalist influence of religions has also declined. Political commitment at the highest level is central to a successful population policy as

Optimal growth entails risky localization in population dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Gueudré, Thomas; Martin, David G.

2018-03-01

Essential to each other, growth and exploration are jointly observed in alive and inanimate entities, such as animals, cells or goods. But how the environment's structural and temporal properties weights in this balance remains elusive. We analyze a model of stochastic growth with time correlations and diffusive dynamics that sheds light on the way populations grow and spread over general networks. This model suggests natural explanations of empirical facts in econo-physics or ecology, such as the risk-return trade-off and the Zipf law. We conclude that optimal growth leads to a localized population distribution, but such risky position can be mitigated through the space geometry. These results have broad applicability and are subsequently illustrated over an empirical study of financial data.

[Population: evolution of Rwandan attitudes or the adaptation of the Rwanda population to population growth].

Science.gov (United States)

Ngendakumana, M

1988-04-01

A consequence of the increasing pressure on Rwanda's ecosystem resulting from population growth has been that demographic factors have played a significant role in modifying attitudes and beliefs of the population. The history of Rwanda demonstrates a constant struggle for survival in the face of increasing population pressure. Migration, colonization of new agricultural lands, adoption of new crops and new forms of animal husbandry have been responses to population pressures. Recent unprecedented population growth has exceeded the capacity of older systems of cultivation and combinations of agricultural and animal husbandry to support the population. Smaller animals have largely replaced the cattle that once roamed freely in extensive pastures, and new techniques of stabling animals, use of organic or chemical fertilizers, and new tools adapted to the shrinking size of farm plots have represented responses to the new demographic realities. The concept of the family is likewise undergoing modification in the face of population growth and modernization. Children, who once were valued as a source of labor and constrained to conform to the wishes of the parents in return for the eventual inheritance of the goods and livelihood, now increasingly look beyond the household for education and employment. Family land holdings have become too small to support all the members with a claim on them. The greater distances between family members inevitably mean that relations between them lose closeness. The choice of a marriage partner is increasingly assumed by the young people themselves and not by their families. Old traditions of food sharing and hospitality have been curtailed because of the increasing scarcity of food. Despite the changes engendered by increasing population pressure, pronatalist sentiments are still widespread. But the desire to assure the future of each child rather than to await his services, a new conception of women less dependent on their reproductive

Taking Exception. Reduced mortality leads to population growth: an inconvenient truth.

Science.gov (United States)

Shelton, James D

2014-05-01

Reduced mortality has been the predominant cause of the marked global population growth over the last 3/4 of a century. While improved child survival increases motivation to reduce fertility, it comes too little and too late to forestall substantial population growth. And, beyond motivation, couples need effective means to control their fertility. It is an inconvenient truth that reducing child mortality contributes considerably to the population growth destined to compromise the quality of life of many, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Vigorous child survival programming is of course imperative. Wide access to voluntary family planning can help mitigate that growth and provide many other benefits.

Population growth and economic development.

Science.gov (United States)

Corbridge, S

1989-01-01

The Malthusian and neo-Malthusian approaches to the role of population growth in economic development and resource depletion are briefly outlined. Three arguments are then presented that emphasize demographic determinism, empirical evidence, and cause and effect. The author concludes that non-coercive family planning programs may have a role to play in countries that are unable to reduce inequalities, particularly for the poor and for women.

Density regulation in Northeast Atlantic fish populations: Density dependence is stronger in recruitment than in somatic growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Zimmermann, Fabian; Ricard, Daniel; Heino, Mikko

2018-05-01

Population regulation is a central concept in ecology, yet in many cases its presence and the underlying mechanisms are difficult to demonstrate. The current paradigm maintains that marine fish populations are predominantly regulated by density-dependent recruitment. While it is known that density-dependent somatic growth can be present too, its general importance remains unknown and most practical applications neglect it. This study aimed to close this gap by for the first time quantifying and comparing density dependence in growth and recruitment over a large set of fish populations. We fitted density-dependent models to time-series data on population size, recruitment and age-specific weight from commercially exploited fish populations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Data were standardized to enable a direct comparison within and among populations, and estimated parameters were used to quantify the impact of density regulation on population biomass. Statistically significant density dependence in recruitment was detected in a large proportion of populations (70%), whereas for density dependence in somatic growth the prevalence of density dependence depended heavily on the method (26% and 69%). Despite age-dependent variability, the density dependence in recruitment was consistently stronger among age groups and between alternative approaches that use weight-at-age or weight increments to assess growth. Estimates of density-dependent reduction in biomass underlined these results: 97% of populations with statistically significant parameters for growth and recruitment showed a larger impact of density-dependent recruitment on population biomass. The results reaffirm the importance of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes, yet they also show that density dependence in somatic growth is not uncommon. Furthermore, the results are important from an applied perspective because density dependence in somatic growth affects productivity and

Population growth to put pressure on some food supplies.

Science.gov (United States)

1997-01-01

Continued high population growth in developing countries is likely to lead to intense pressure to produce more rice, according to estimates from the Manila-based International Rice Research Institute (IRRI). Ms. Mercedita Sombilla, a research scientist with IRRI, said that the projected increase in Asia's population will be the major force in accelerating demand for rice. According to various issues of the ESCAP Population Data Sheet, the population of the region will have increased from 3.3 billion in 1995 to almost 4.6 billion in 2020. The greatest growth in demand is expected to come from the lower-income countries of Asia, such as Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Philippines, and Viet Nam, she said. However, in terms of overall food supplies, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that food supplies will be sufficient. "Expecting reasonably strong productivity growth to be sustainable, no global food crisis seems likely to occur" between now and 2020, the organization stated in its report entitled "The World in 2020: Towards a New Global Age". full text

Experimental design and estimation of growth rate distributions in size-structured shrimp populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Banks, H T; Davis, Jimena L; Ernstberger, Stacey L; Hu, Shuhua; Artimovich, Elena; Dhar, Arun K

2009-01-01

We discuss inverse problem results for problems involving the estimation of probability distributions using aggregate data for growth in populations. We begin with a mathematical model describing variability in the early growth process of size-structured shrimp populations and discuss a computational methodology for the design of experiments to validate the model and estimate the growth-rate distributions in shrimp populations. Parameter-estimation findings using experimental data from experiments so designed for shrimp populations cultivated at Advanced BioNutrition Corporation are presented, illustrating the usefulness of mathematical and statistical modeling in understanding the uncertainty in the growth dynamics of such populations

Impact of Population Aging on Asia's Future Growth

OpenAIRE

Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho

2011-01-01

First, the expert contributors argue, Asia must find ways to sustain rapid economic growth in the face of less favorable demographics, which implies slower growth of the workforce. Second, they contend, Asia must find ways to deliver affordable, adequate, and sustainable old-age economic security for its growing elderly population. Underpinned by rigorous analysis, a wide range of concrete policy options for sustaining economic growth while delivering economic security for the elderly are the...

Population growth is a variable open to change

Science.gov (United States)

Potts, M.

2016-12-01

The absolute number of people and the rate of population growth have an impact on climate mitigation, adaptation and possible conflict. Half the pregnancies in the US are unintended. Robust quantitative evidence from California demonstrates that improving access to family planning is the single most cost-effective way of mitigating our carbon footprint. Globally, there are 80 million unintended pregnancies annually. Many non-evidence barriers deprive women of the information and means required to separate sex from childbearing. Between 1960 and 1990, meeting the need for family planning led to a rapid fall in family size in much of Asia. Since 1990, funding for family planning has collapsed and fertility decline has stalled. The UN projects that by 2100 global population will increase by 3.8 billion (equal to world population in 1975). 80% of this growth will be in Africa. Studies project that climate change will undermine crop yields in parts of Africa, especially the Sahel. A high ratio of young males to the rest of the population is a risk factor in conflict. Today, only 1% of overseas assistance is allocated to family planning. Based on analysis of the past, doubling that investment would accelerate fertility decline, facilitating climate mitigation and adaptation, and possibly reducing conflict. Population and family planning were pushed off the international agenda by unacceptably and tragic episodes of coercion in China and India. However, there is compelling data that when voluntary family planning is widely available then family size can fall rapidly, as occurred in the Islamic Republic of Iran, where fertility fell more rapidly than in any other country in history. Family planning is listening to what women want not telling people want to do. Population growth is a variable open to change in a human rights framework. Population and family planning are variables relevant to the scientific agenda of the AGU.

A note on the status of women as a factor in population growth in less developed countries.

Science.gov (United States)

Laidlaw, K A; Pugh, M D; Stockwell, E G

1980-01-01

The 1978 U.S. Bureau of the Census reported 4.3 billion as the world's population. 3.1 billion were living in the less developed areas where life is characterized by poverty and low levels of material well-being. In the develop countries the per capita income averaged $490, compared to $5,210 in developed areas. Little attention has been paid to the status of women in developing countries, where the impact of development often has a negative effect. As a measure of women's status, rates are given for male/female infant mortality. If the ratio is less than 1.14 the status of women is low. If the is 1.15-1.24 the status is medium. If the ratio is 1.25 and over, women enjoy high status. In countries where women have low status the population growth ra averages 3%. Where the status of women is medium, the growth rate is 2.5%. I countries of high status the population growth rate is 2.2. Further research is needed on correlations between population and economic growth, with particula emphasis on subtle factors behind population/economic development.

Fetal growth trajectory and risk for eczema in a Saudi population.

Science.gov (United States)

AlMakoshi, Amel; Ellahi, Awaiss; Sallout, Bala; Devereux, Graham; Turner, Steve

2015-12-01

Recent studies in Western cohorts have identified associations between increasing fetal abdominal circumference (AC) during mid-pregnancy and increased risk for eczema and atopy. We sought to replicate these findings in a Saudi population where antenatal environmental exposures are different compared with Western countries. A Saudi birth cohort was recruited to relate maternal dietary intake and fetal growth to wheeze, eczema, and rhinitis in the first 2 yrs. Fetal size was determined from routine ultrasound scan measurements in the second and third trimesters and birthweight was noted. Parent-reported outcomes during the first 2 yrs were acquired by telephone-administered questionnaire. There were 1076 mothers recruited. AC was determined in 562 for the second, in 632 for the third, and in 281 for both second and third trimesters. A history of eczema was determined in 814 children at 2 yrs of age. There was an inverse relationship between change in abdominal circumference between the second and third trimesters for eczema (OR 0.66 per z score increase in AC [95% CI 0.49, 0.89]), and the quartile with the greatest faltering growth were at increased risk compared with other groups (p ≤ 0.045). Change in fetal size between the third trimester and birth was not associated with altered eczema risk. There were no associations between fetal growth and wheeze at the age of 2 yrs. Our findings contrast observations made in Western populations but nonetheless suggest that factors associated with changing fetal growth trajectory in the second half of pregnancy are also relevant to atopy development on the global setting. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

Science.gov (United States)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

2015-06-01

The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

Endogenous population growth may imply chaos.

Science.gov (United States)

Prskawetz, A; Feichtinger, G

1995-01-01

The authors consider a discrete-time neoclassical growth model with an endogenous rate of population growth. The resulting one-dimensional map for the capital intensity has a tilted z-shape. Using the theory of nonlinear dynamical systems, they obtain numerical results on the qualitative behavior of time paths for changing parameter values. Besides stable and periodic solutions, erratic time paths may result. In particular, myopic and far-sighted economies--assumed to be characterized by low and high savings rate respectively--are characterized by stable per capita capital stocks, while solutions with chaotic windows exist between these two extremes.

[African population growth: status and prospects].

Science.gov (United States)

Tabutin, D

1991-01-01

Despite great improvements over the past several years, the quality of demographic data in Africa is still a problem, and Africa remains the least well known continent. Population growth is extremely rapid, with all countries growing at annual rates of over 3%. The natural increase rate even shows some signs of increasing slightly in the next decade or so. Africa's population was estimated at 220 million in 1950, 650 million at present, and is projected at 1.5 billion by 2025. Africans represented 9% of the world population in 1960, but will increase to 19% around 2025. The rapid population growth is the result of declining mortality since the 1950s unmatched by changes in fertility. There are significant socioeconomic and rural-urban mortality differentials in Africa, but as yet only highly educated urbanites have measurably reduced their family size. 2 consequences of this rapid growth are the youth of the population, with almost 50% under 20 years, and its high density in some areas. By 2025, 18 countries will have densities of over 100 persons per sq km. Almost everywhere in Africa, family sizes are at least 6 children/woman. 3 factors explaining this high level of fertility are the earliness and universality of marriage, rates of contraceptive usage of only 4-10% in most countries, and declining durations of breast feeding and sexual abstinence, which traditionally served as brakes on fertility. As a rule, women marry young and remain married until the end of their reproductive years. Divorce and widowhood are common, but remarriage is usually rapid if the woman is still of reproductive age. Life expectancy at birth in sub-Saharan Africa has increased from some 36 years around 1950 to 50 years at present. Progress in control of mortality, and especially infant mortality, has been slower than expected, and Africa still has by far the lowest life expectancy of any major region. Regional, rural-urban, and socioeconomic mortality differentials are considerable and

A new population growth map with variable coefficients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jannussis, A.

1986-01-01

In the present paper it is investigated a simple population growth map with variable coefficients. Moreover, it is studied the new population map of the form xsub(j+1) = axsub(j) (1/(1 + bxsub(j)) -1/(1 + cxsub(j))), c not= b, j = 0, 1,..., which is transformed in an equivalent logistic map

Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Laver, Rebecca J; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

Life-history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rebecca J Laver

Full Text Available Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis. The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species.

Life-History and Spatial Determinants of Somatic Growth Dynamics in Komodo Dragon Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Laver, Rebecca J.; Purwandana, Deni; Ariefiandy, Achmad; Imansyah, Jeri; Forsyth, David; Ciofi, Claudio; Jessop, Tim S.

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world’s largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture study at ten sites on four islands in eastern Indonesia, from 2002 to 2010. Generalized Additive Mixed Models (GAMMs) and information-theoretic methods were used to examine how growth rates varied with size, age and sex, and across and within islands in relation to site-specific prey availability, lizard population density and inbreeding coefficients. Growth trajectories differed significantly with size and between sexes, indicating different energy allocation tactics and overall costs associated with reproduction. This leads to disparities in maximum body sizes and longevity. Spatial variation in growth was strongly supported by a curvilinear density-dependent growth model with highest growth rates occurring at intermediate population densities. Sex-specific trade-offs in growth underpin key differences in Komodo dragon life-history including evidence for high costs of reproduction in females. Further, inverse density-dependent growth may have profound effects on individual and population level processes that influence the demography of this species. PMID:23028983

Modeling effects of cadmium on population growth of Palaemonetes pugio: Results of a full life cycle exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manyin, Teresa; Rowe, Christopher L.

2008-01-01

In an 8-month laboratory experiment, Palaemonetes pugio (grass shrimp) were exposed to aqueous cadmium (free cadmium ion concentrations of 1.51 or 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L) for an entire life cycle, from larva to reproductive adult and through to production of second-generation larva. Individual-level effects on survival, life stage duration, and reproduction were measured, and population growth was projected using two models: a stage-based matrix model and a z-transformed life cycle graph analysis. Adult survival was significantly reduced at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L, but cadmium exposure had no effects on survival or stage duration of embryos, larvae, or juveniles. Survival of second-generation larvae was unaffected by maternal exposure. Brood size was reduced by 27% at 1.51 μg Cd 2+ /L and by 36% at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L. The percent of females in the population that was gravid was approximately 50% lower at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L, compared to controls. Both population models projected a dose-dependent decrease in population growth rate (λ), up to a 12% reduction at 2.51 μg Cd 2+ /L, which can be attributed mainly to contributions from reproductive effects. Elasticity analysis revealed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in survival of juveniles and adults. However, lethal effects of cadmium made only a small contribution to the effect on population growth rate. Even though both models project positive growth (λ > 1) of grass shrimp populations exposed to low concentrations of cadmium, the ability of populations to withstand predation pressure would be compromised

Modeling effects of cadmium on population growth of Palaemonetes pugio: Results of a full life cycle exposure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Manyin, Teresa [University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, PO Box 38, 1 Williams Street, Solomons, MD 20688 (United States)], E-mail: manyin@cbl.umces.edu; Rowe, Christopher L. [University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, PO Box 38, 1 Williams Street, Solomons, MD 20688 (United States)

2008-06-23

In an 8-month laboratory experiment, Palaemonetes pugio (grass shrimp) were exposed to aqueous cadmium (free cadmium ion concentrations of 1.51 or 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L) for an entire life cycle, from larva to reproductive adult and through to production of second-generation larva. Individual-level effects on survival, life stage duration, and reproduction were measured, and population growth was projected using two models: a stage-based matrix model and a z-transformed life cycle graph analysis. Adult survival was significantly reduced at 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L, but cadmium exposure had no effects on survival or stage duration of embryos, larvae, or juveniles. Survival of second-generation larvae was unaffected by maternal exposure. Brood size was reduced by 27% at 1.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L and by 36% at 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L. The percent of females in the population that was gravid was approximately 50% lower at 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L, compared to controls. Both population models projected a dose-dependent decrease in population growth rate ({lambda}), up to a 12% reduction at 2.51 {mu}g Cd{sup 2+}/L, which can be attributed mainly to contributions from reproductive effects. Elasticity analysis revealed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in survival of juveniles and adults. However, lethal effects of cadmium made only a small contribution to the effect on population growth rate. Even though both models project positive growth ({lambda} > 1) of grass shrimp populations exposed to low concentrations of cadmium, the ability of populations to withstand predation pressure would be compromised.

Communication and The Challenges of Rapid Population Growth in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2005) which projected the African Population at 1,349 million by 2025 and 1,969 million by 2050. These figures are so frightening that the use of communication to contribute to checking the high population growth is challenged. We discuss ...

The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

Science.gov (United States)

Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-04-01

The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

OpenAIRE

A.M. Woodd

1999-01-01

An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant p...

[Is it necessary to control the population growth of national minorities].

Science.gov (United States)

Tian, X Y

1981-02-01

In the process of Socialist construction and modernization, the development of the population of national minorities deserves our attention because it is directly related to the economic and cultural development in the areas inhabited by such national minorities, and it has a great impact on the welfare and future of those people. Moreover, the population growth of the minorities is a key factor in the national population control strategy. A rapid population growth among the minorities has caused serious problems in distribution of farm land and food supply, low personal income, a rise in the unemployment rate, and a rise in the illiteracy rate. This has prevented a rise in the living standard among the minority population. In order to prevent and solve population problems among the minorities, we must take appropriate measures according to local conditions to control population increases. Through popularization of education, population growth may be put under control. For those people who volunteer to practice family planning, the government should provide all kinds of assistance. At the same time, an effort is needed to introduce the necessity of improving birth quality, to popularize new methods of child birth, and to develop health and medical care for the general public, so that the quality of the minority population may be gradually improved.

Adapting to Population Growth: The Evolutionary Alternative to Malthus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Axel Kristinsson

2016-06-01

Full Text Available A long-standing debate on the dynamics of population growth in human history has become polarized between a Malthusian stance and a Boserupian one. The former tends to view population growth as limited by carrying capacity, dependent on environment and technology, whereas the latter sees population growth itself as a major inducement to social, economic and technological developments. In this paper the authors experiment with approaching this debate by using recent developments in evolutionary theory. According to these, evolutionary principles, as expounded by Charles Darwin and subsequent evolutionary scientists, apply not only to biological evolution but also to social or cultural evolution. Here, the role of genes is taken over by culture and, since culture is much more pliable than our DNA, evolution speeds up. As the only organisms on Earth whose evolution relies as heavily on culture as on genes, humans have become extremely adaptable. Their hyper-adaptability suggest that humans, through their cultural evolution, have managed increasingly to adapt to their own growing population, thus succeeding in accommodating ever-growing numbers. This hypothesis fits the Boserupian approach to population very well but less so the Malthusian one, perhaps indicating a gradual shift from a Malthusian regime to a Boserupian one in human history. The hypothesis is discussed and examined through four case studies: The beginning of farming around Göbekli Tepe in southeast Turkey, the productive farming systems of Tiwanaku in South America, the population crisis of late medieval and early modern Iceland, and the ‘collapse’ of Rapa Nui (Easter Island.

Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

KAUST Repository

Baumgarten, Sebastian

2013-12-04

Magellania venosa, the largest recent brachiopod, occurs in clusters and banks in population densities of up to 416 ind m-2 in Comau Fjord, Northern Chilean fjord region. Below 15 m, it co-occurs with the mytilid Aulacomya atra and it dominates the benthic community below 20 m. To determine the question of why M. venosa is a successful competitor, the in situ growth rate of the brachiopod was studied and its overall growth performance compared with that of other brachiopods and mussels. The growth in length was measured between February 2011 and March 2012 after mechanical tagging and calcein staining. Settlement and juvenile growth were determined from recruitment tiles installed in 2009 and from subsequent photocensus. Growth of M. venosa is best described by the general von Bertalanffy growth function, with a maximum shell length (L∞) of 71.53 mm and a Brody growth constant (K) of 0.336 year-1. The overall growth performance (OGP index = 5.1) is the highest recorded for a rynchonelliform brachiopod and in the range of that for Mytilus chilensis (4.8-5.27), but lower than that of A. atra (5.74). The maximal individual production (PInd) is 0.29 g AFDM ind-1 year-1 at 42 mm shell length and annual production ranges from 1.28 to 89.25 g AFDM year-1 m-2 (1-57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass of the population (P/B--ratio) is low (0.535) and M. venosa may play only a minor role in the food chain. Settling dynamics indicates that M. venosa is a pioneer species with low juvenile mortality. The coexistence of the brachiopod and bivalve suggests that brachiopod survival is affected by neither the presence of potential brachiopod predators nor that of space competitors (i.e. mytilids).

Lower virus infections in Varroa destructor-infested and uninfested brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera) of a low mite population growth colony compared to a high mite population growth colony.

Science.gov (United States)

Emsen, Berna; Hamiduzzaman, Mollah Md; Goodwin, Paul H; Guzman-Novoa, Ernesto

2015-01-01

A comparison was made of the prevalence and relative quantification of deformed wing virus (DWV), Israeli acute paralysis virus (IAPV), black queen cell virus (BQCV), Kashmir bee virus (KBV), acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV) and sac brood virus (SBV) in brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera) from colonies selected for high (HMP) and low (LMP) Varroa destructor mite population growth. Two viruses, ABPV and SBV, were never detected. For adults without mite infestation, DWV, IAPV, BQCV and KBV were detected in the HMP colony; however, only BQCV was detected in the LMP colony but at similar levels as in the HMP colony. With mite infestation, the four viruses were detected in adults of the HMP colony but all at higher amounts than in the LMP colony. For brood without mite infestation, DWV and IAPV were detected in the HMP colony, but no viruses were detected in the LMP colony. With mite infestation of brood, the four viruses were detected in the HMP colony, but only DWV and IAPV were detected and at lower amounts in the LMP colony. An epidemiological explanation for these results is that pre-experiment differences in virus presence and levels existed between the HMP and LMP colonies. It is also possible that low V. destructor population growth in the LMP colony resulted in the bees being less exposed to the mite and thus less likely to have virus infections. LMP and HMP bees may have also differed in susceptibility to virus infection.

Analysis of single hyphal growth and fragmentation in submerged cultures using a population model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Krabben, Preben; Nielsen, Søren; Michelsen, Michael Locht

1997-01-01

Descriptions of population dynamics in submerged cultures are important when studying the mechanisms of growth and fragmentation of filamentous microorganisms. Population models are traditionally formulated as population balance equations. Population models of filamentous morphology are difficult...... to solve because of random fragmentation, which introduces an integral term into the population balance equations. Balances for the systemic properties, e.g. concentration of hyphal elements, substrate concentration, average total hyphal length, and average number of growing tips, are set up. Based...... on these balances one can solve the inverse problem, i.e. determination of kinetic parameters directly from measurements of the hyphal morphology. Both a Monte Carlo method and a discretization method have been used to calculate the steady-state population distribution. The two methods are compared and the Monte...

Exile and demographic population growth in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stevanović Radoslav

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower administrative-territorial entities (districts depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050 the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population.

Individualism in plant populations: using stochastic differential equations to model individual neighbourhood-dependent plant growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Lv, Qiming; Schneider, Manuel K; Pitchford, Jonathan W

2008-08-01

We study individual plant growth and size hierarchy formation in an experimental population of Arabidopsis thaliana, within an integrated analysis that explicitly accounts for size-dependent growth, size- and space-dependent competition, and environmental stochasticity. It is shown that a Gompertz-type stochastic differential equation (SDE) model, involving asymmetric competition kernels and a stochastic term which decreases with the logarithm of plant weight, efficiently describes individual plant growth, competition, and variability in the studied population. The model is evaluated within a Bayesian framework and compared to its deterministic counterpart, and to several simplified stochastic models, using distributional validation. We show that stochasticity is an important determinant of size hierarchy and that SDE models outperform the deterministic model if and only if structural components of competition (asymmetry; size- and space-dependence) are accounted for. Implications of these results are discussed in the context of plant ecology and in more general modelling situations.

A demographic model to predict future growth of the Addo elephant population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.M. Woodd

1999-07-01

Full Text Available An age-structured demographic model of the growth of the Addo elephant population was developed using parameters calculated from long-term data on the population. The model was used to provide estimates of future population growth. Expansion of the Addo Elephant National Park is currently underway, and the proposed target population size for elephant within the enlarged park is 2700. The model predicts that this population size will be reached during the year 2043, so that the Addo elephant population can continue to increase for a further 44 years before its target size within the enlarged park is attained.

Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

Science.gov (United States)

Winkel, Brian J.

2011-01-01

We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

Adult survival and population growth rate in Colorado big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus)

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shea, T.J.; Ellison, L.E.; Stanley, T.R.

2011-01-01

We studied adult survival and population growth at multiple maternity colonies of big brown bats (Eptesicus fuscus) in Fort Collins, Colorado. We investigated hypotheses about survival using information-theoretic methods and mark-recapture analyses based on passive detection of adult females tagged with passive integrated transponders. We constructed a 3-stage life-history matrix model to estimate population growth rate (??) and assessed the relative importance of adult survival and other life-history parameters to population growth through elasticity and sensitivity analysis. Annual adult survival at 5 maternity colonies monitored from 2001 to 2005 was estimated at 0.79 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] = 0.77-0.82). Adult survival varied by year and roost, with low survival during an extreme drought year, a finding with negative implications for bat populations because of the likelihood of increasing drought in western North America due to global climate change. Adult survival during winter was higher than in summer, and mean life expectancies calculated from survival estimates were lower than maximum longevity records. We modeled adult survival with recruitment parameter estimates from the same population. The study population was growing (?? = 1.096; 95% CI = 1.057-1.135). Adult survival was the most important demographic parameter for population growth. Growth clearly had the highest elasticity to adult survival, followed by juvenile survival and adult fecundity (approximately equivalent in rank). Elasticity was lowest for fecundity of yearlings. The relative importances of the various life-history parameters for population growth rate are similar to those of large mammals. ?? 2011 American Society of Mammalogists.

1 2 POPULATION GROWTH AND THE DILEMMA OF RURAL LIFE ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Dr Ike

The high as well as the unrestrained population growth rate of the country has, to a ... that it stimulates business and general economic growth cycles and therefore .... The privilege and opportunity of acquiring functional education, for instance ...

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

Science.gov (United States)

Russell, Tanya L.; Lwetoijera, Dickson W.; Knols, Bart G. J.; Takken, Willem; Killeen, Gerry F.; Ferguson, Heather M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in phenotypic traits predict the dynamics of Anopheles gambiae sensu lato mosquitoes, the most important vectors of human malaria. Anopheles gambiae dynamics were monitored over a six-month period of seasonal growth and decline. The population exhibited density-dependent feedback, with the carrying capacity being modified by rainfall (97% wAICc support). The individual phenotypic expression of the maternal (p = 0.0001) and current (p = 0.040) body size positively influenced population growth. Our field-based evidence uniquely demonstrates that individual fitness can have population-level impacts and, furthermore, can mitigate the impact of exogenous drivers (e.g. rainfall) in species whose reproduction depends upon it. Once frontline interventions have suppressed mosquito densities, attempts to eliminate malaria with supplementary vector control tools may be attenuated by increased population growth and individual fitness. PMID:21389034

Genetic variation in Pinus strobiformis growth and drought tolerance from southwestern US populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Goodrich, Betsy A; Waring, Kristen M; Kolb, Thomas E

2016-10-01

The persistence of some tree species is threatened by combinations of novel abiotic and biotic stressors. To examine the hypothesis that Pinus strobiformis Engelm., a tree threatened by an invasive forest pathogen and a changing climate, exhibits intraspecific genetic variation in adaptive traits, we conducted a common garden study of seedlings at one location with two watering regimes using 24 populations. Four key findings emerged: (i) growth and physiological traits were low to moderately differentiated among populations but differentiation was high for some traits in water-stressed populations; (ii) seedlings from warmer climates grew larger, had higher stomatal density and were more water-use efficient (as measured by the carbon isotope ratio) than populations from colder climates; (iii) seedlings from the northern edge of the species' distribution had lower water-use efficiency, higher stomatal conductance, slower growth and longer survival in a lethal drought experiment compared with seedlings from more southern populations; and (iv) based on non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses, populations clustered into southern and northern groups, which did not correspond to current seed transfer zones. Our discovery of a clinal geographic pattern of genetic variation in adaptive traits of P. strobiformis seedlings will be useful in developing strategies to maintain the species during ongoing climate change and in the face of an invasive pathogen. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Soil science, population growth and food production: some historical developments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartemink, A.E.

2007-01-01

The world¿s population has doubled since 1960. Currently, the developing world accounts for about 95% of the population growth with Africa as the world¿s fastest growing continent. The growing population has many implications but most of all it requires an increase in agricultural production to meet

Association between pregnancy complications and small-for-gestational-age birth weight defined by customized fetal growth standard versus a population-based standard.

Science.gov (United States)

Odibo, Anthony O; Francis, Andre; Cahill, Alison G; Macones, George A; Crane, James P; Gardosi, Jason

2011-03-01

To derive coefficients for developing a customized growth chart for a Mid-Western US population, and to estimate the association between pregnancy outcomes and smallness for gestational age (SGA) defined by the customized growth chart compared with a population-based growth chart for the USA. A retrospective cohort study of an ultrasound database using 54,433 pregnancies meeting inclusion criteria was conducted. Coefficients for customized centiles were derived using 42,277 pregnancies and compared with those obtained from other populations. Two adverse outcome indicators were defined (greater than 7 day stay in the neonatal unit and stillbirth [SB]), and the risk for each outcome was calculated for the groups of pregnancies defined as SGA by the population standard and SGA by the customized standard using 12,456 pregnancies for the validation sample. The growth potential expressed as weight at 40 weeks in this population was 3524 g (standard error: 402 g). In the validation population, 4055 cases of SGA were identified using both population and customized standards. The cases additionally identified as SGA by the customized method had a significantly increased risk of each of the adverse outcome categories. The sensitivity and specificity of those identified as SGA by customized method only for detecting pregnancies at risk for SB was 32.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.0-38.8%) and 95.1% (95% CI: 94.7-95.0%) versus 0.8% (95% CI 0.1-2.7%) and 98.0% (95% CI 97.8-98.2%)for those identified by only the population-based method, respectively. SGA defined by customized growth potential is able to identify substantially more pregnancies at a risk for adverse outcome than the currently used national standard for fetal growth.

Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81.

Science.gov (United States)

Gill, M S

1987-01-01

Except for the decade 1941-1951, in which Punjab's population declined because of a huge exchange of population between India and Pakistan and a large loss of life, the decade 1971-1981 was the 1st decade since 1911 to experience a deceleration in the growth rate of the rural population of Punjab, India. The deceleration was due to out-migration to urban areas. The scheduled caste population increased 28.37% between 1971 and 1981, while the nonscheduled caste population increased by only 13.32%, which was considerably below the rate of natural increase. Nonscheduled castes had experienced substantial out-migration because of 1) improved transport and communication facilities which enabled them to move to urban centers; 2) mechanization of main farming operations and easy availability of migrant laborers which lessened the need for family labor; 3) the rise of a relatively mobile younger generation with a high literacy rate; 4) rapidly decreasing land holdings which strengthened the push factor in the countryside; and 5) rising aspirations, especially among the younger generation. In 1981, Sikhs constituted 71.3% of the rural population in Punjab, followed by Hindus (26.51%), Christians (1.25%), and Muslims (.89%). From 1971-1981, Muslims experienced the greatest increase (49.29%). Sikhs grew by 20.74% and Hindus by 9.02%. The Sikhs high growth rate was due to 1) a new technique for counting religious affiliation in which all members of a household are considered the same religion as the head of household and 2) conversion of Hindus to Sikhism. Hindus had a low growth rate because 1) the new method of counting religious affiliation and 2) rural-urban migration. The area with the lowest population increase resulted from industrialists and other nonagriculturists buying farmland, causing the agriculturists to move away to less desirable land. Conclusions are 1) the sharp rural-urban division along religious lines should be lessened, 2) Sikhs' lag in urbanization and

Population growth and food supply in sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Meerman, J; Cochrane, S H

1982-09-01

It is argued in this article that sub-Saharan Africa, given its present institutions and endowments of capital and technology, is already dangerously close to overpopulation. The rapid growth of its population projected for the next decades will greatly increase human misery and depress economic development. Specifically, rapid population growth will have disastrous effects on the region's ability to increase exports and provide people with food. There must be a search for new ways in which these effects could be mitigated. In sub-Saharan Africa fertility either continues to be very high or is increasing, in part due to some decline in traditional practices that reduce fertility, such as prolonged breastfeeding. This situation and the expectation of declining mortality imply that African population growth may increase further. Currently, population in sub-Saharan Africa is about half that of India and a third of China. There are 2 main reasons why reduced fertility in the next few decades is unlikely in sub-Saharan Africa as a whole: Africa has low literacy, high infant and child mortality, and low urbanization; and average African fertility rates may even increase for the next 20 years or so. The question that arises is what are the implications of continuing and rapid population growth for the African food supply. The region's cereal production is largely restricted to 4 grains, i.e., millet, sorghum, maize, and rice. The volume of grain production is less, by weight, than 60% of the production of roots and tubers. There are 2 main differences between the output of these crops in sub-Saharan Africa and the rest of the world: yields/hectare are lower in Africa than in elsewhere; and yields have generally been decreasing or largely constant in Africa. The low productivity has several causes. Today, population pressure has brought diminishing returns to traditional agriculture in much of the Sahel and the savanna, in parts of East Africa, Southern Africa, and parts

Estimating the effects of 17α-ethinylestradiol on stochastic population growth rate of fathead minnows: a population synthesis of empirically derived vital rates

Science.gov (United States)

Schwindt, Adam R.; Winkelman, Dana L.

2016-01-01

Urban freshwater streams in arid climates are wastewater effluent dominated ecosystems particularly impacted by bioactive chemicals including steroid estrogens that disrupt vertebrate reproduction. However, more understanding of the population and ecological consequences of exposure to wastewater effluent is needed. We used empirically derived vital rate estimates from a mesocosm study to develop a stochastic stage-structured population model and evaluated the effect of 17α-ethinylestradiol (EE2), the estrogen in human contraceptive pills, on fathead minnow Pimephales promelas stochastic population growth rate. Tested EE2 concentrations ranged from 3.2 to 10.9 ng L−1 and produced stochastic population growth rates (λ S ) below 1 at the lowest concentration, indicating potential for population decline. Declines in λ S compared to controls were evident in treatments that were lethal to adult males despite statistically insignificant effects on egg production and juvenile recruitment. In fact, results indicated that λ S was most sensitive to the survival of juveniles and female egg production. More broadly, our results document that population model results may differ even when empirically derived estimates of vital rates are similar among experimental treatments, and demonstrate how population models integrate and project the effects of stressors throughout the life cycle. Thus, stochastic population models can more effectively evaluate the ecological consequences of experimentally derived vital rates.

Lower Virus Infections in Varroa destructor-Infested and Uninfested Brood and Adult Honey Bees (Apis mellifera) of a Low Mite Population Growth Colony Compared to a High Mite Population Growth Colony

Science.gov (United States)

Emsen, Berna; Hamiduzzaman, Mollah Md.; Goodwin, Paul H.; Guzman-Novoa, Ernesto

2015-01-01

A comparison was made of the prevalence and relative quantification of deformed wing virus (DWV), Israeli acute paralysis virus (IAPV), black queen cell virus (BQCV), Kashmir bee virus (KBV), acute bee paralysis virus (ABPV) and sac brood virus (SBV) in brood and adult honey bees (Apis mellifera) from colonies selected for high (HMP) and low (LMP) Varroa destructor mite population growth. Two viruses, ABPV and SBV, were never detected. For adults without mite infestation, DWV, IAPV, BQCV and KBV were detected in the HMP colony; however, only BQCV was detected in the LMP colony but at similar levels as in the HMP colony. With mite infestation, the four viruses were detected in adults of the HMP colony but all at higher amounts than in the LMP colony. For brood without mite infestation, DWV and IAPV were detected in the HMP colony, but no viruses were detected in the LMP colony. With mite infestation of brood, the four viruses were detected in the HMP colony, but only DWV and IAPV were detected and at lower amounts in the LMP colony. An epidemiological explanation for these results is that pre-experiment differences in virus presence and levels existed between the HMP and LMP colonies. It is also possible that low V. destructor population growth in the LMP colony resulted in the bees being less exposed to the mite and thus less likely to have virus infections. LMP and HMP bees may have also differed in susceptibility to virus infection. PMID:25723540

Constant savings rates and quasi-arithmetic population growth under exhaustible resource constraints

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Asheim, G.B.; Buchholz, W.; Hartwick, J.M.; Mitra, T.; Withagen, C.A.A.M.

2007-01-01

In the Dasgupta–Heal–Solow–Stiglitz (DHSS) model of capital accumulation and resource depletion we show the following equivalence: if an efficient path has constant (gross and net of population growth) savings rates, then population growth must be quasi-arithmetic and the path is a maximin or a

Trends in the growth of population and labour force in Pakistan.

Science.gov (United States)

Hashmi, S S

1990-01-01

Trends in the growth of the population and labor force in Pakistan are examined and future prospects for growth of population and labor, particularly agriculture, are estimated. The definition of labor force as employed or seeking work after a short period of employment has led to a great disparity in results for women in the labor force. Past trends in population growth reflected a growth rate of 1.6% for the 1950's, and 2.4% in 1960. The population rose to 84.3 million in 1981 from 42.6 million in 1961, which intercensally was an increase of 3.6% per annum for 1961-72 and 3.1% per annum for 1972-81. The estimated rate for 1981-86 was 2.9%/year. The rural population doubled and the urban tripled. There was a net migration of 2.123 million to urban areas reported in the 1981 census. There is also evidence of a high sex ratio. Balochistan (7.1%) and Sindh (3.6%) provinces have the highest growth rates. Although the largest population is in the Punjab, the growth is the lowest at 2.7%. The population is primarily young -- 44.5% 15 years in 1981, which is the highest in the world. Under high, medium, and low levels of fertility, prospective trends are estimated for 2006 and 2031, and by sex every 5 years from 1981. Population under high fertility is expected to reach 270 million by 2031, which is 3.39 persons/hectare. The population/hectare of land under cultivation was 4.25 in 1981 and is expected to rise to 13.49 persons/hectare in 2031. 11 million acres could be brought under cultivation to reduce the ratio. However, there are ecological considerations as well as an employment problem. The dependency ratio under the high variant will decline from 76.8 persons 0-14 and 65 years/100 persons 15-64 years in 1986 to 70.3 in 2006 which is still considerably higher than other developing countries. It is suggested that replacement level fertility be attained as soon as possible. Under low fertility, replacement level can be reached by 2011 with strong political commitment

Dynamics of individual growth in a recovering population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush)

Science.gov (United States)

Fabrizio, Mary C.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Schram, Stephen T.

2001-01-01

In 1976, the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources established a refuge for a nearly depleted population of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) at Gull Island Shoal, Lake Superior. The refuge was intended to reduce fishing mortality by protecting adult lake trout. We examined the growth dynamics of these lake trout during the period of recovery by comparing estimates of ndividual growth before and after the refuge was established. Our estimates are based on an annual mark-recapture survey conducted at the spawning area since 1969. We developed a model that allowed mean growth rates to differ among individuals of different sizes and that accommodated variation in growth rates of individuals of the same size. Likelihood ratio tests were used to determine if the mean growth increments of lake trout changed ater the refuge was established. Our results suggest that growth of mature lake trout (particularly wild fish) decreased significantly in the postrefuge period. This decreased growth may have been associated with a reduction in food availability. We also observed reductions in growth as wild fish grew older and larger, which suggests that the growth of these fish may be adequately approximated by a von Bertalanffy growth model if it becomes possible to obtain accurate ages.

Physical growth of the shuar: Height, Weight, and BMI references for an indigenous amazonian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Urlacher, Samuel S; Blackwell, Aaron D; Liebert, Melissa A; Madimenos, Felicia C; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Snodgrass, J Josh; Sugiyama, Lawrence S

2016-01-01

Information concerning physical growth among small-scale populations remains limited, yet such data are critical to local health efforts and to foster basic understandings of human life history and variation in childhood development. Using a large dataset and robust modeling methods, this study aims to describe growth from birth to adulthood among the indigenous Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Mixed-longitudinal measures of height, weight, and body mass index (BMI) were collected from Shuar participants (n = 2,463; age: 0-29 years). Centile growth curves and tables were created for each anthropometric variable of interest using Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale, and Shape (GAMLSS). Pseudo-velocity and Lambda-Mu-Sigma curves were generated to further investigate Shuar patterns of growth and to facilitate comparison with United States Center for Disease Control and Prevention and multinational World Health Organization growth references. The Shuar are small throughout life and exhibit complex patterns of growth that differ substantially from those of international references. Similar to other Amazonians, Shuar growth in weight compares more favorably to references than growth in height, resulting in BMI curves that approximate international medians. Several additional characteristics of Shuar development are noteworthy, including large observed variation in body size early in life, significant infant growth faltering, extended male growth into adulthood, and a markedly early female pubertal growth spurt in height. Phenotypic plasticity and genetic selection in response to local environmental factors may explain many of these patterns. Providing a detailed reference of growth for the Shuar and other Amazonian populations, this study possesses direct clinical application and affords valuable insight into childhood health and the ecology of human growth. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Role for M-Matrices in Modelling Population Growth

Science.gov (United States)

James, Glyn; Rumchev, Ventsi

2006-01-01

Adopting a discrete-time cohort-type model to represent the dynamics of a population, the problem of achieving a desired total size of the population under a balanced growth (contraction) and the problem of maintaining the desired size, once achieved, are studied. Properties of positive-time systems and M-matrices are used to develop the results,…

[The decline in population growth, income distribution, and economic recession].

Science.gov (United States)

Banguero, H

1983-05-01

This work uses Keynesian principles and an analysis of the Colombian population in the 1970s to argue that the Colombian policy of slowing population growth, which was adopted with the aim of improving the general welfare of the population, has had shortterm negative effects on effective demand and thus on the level of employment and welfare. These negative effects were caused by the inflexibility of income distribution, which prevented expansion of the internal market, complicated by the stagnant condition of the external sector and the budget deficit. The results of the Colombian case study demonstrate how the deceleration of population growth beginning in the 1960s had a significant impact on the levels of consumption and savings and on the patterns of consumption, leading to low levels of investment and little dynamism. Although the current Colombian economic recession is aggravated by contextual factors such as the world economic recession, the high cost of capital, the industrial recession, and declining food production among others, at the core of the crisis are longer term structural determinants such as the decline in the rate of population growth and the highly unequal distribution of income and wealth, which have contributed to a shrinking of the internal market for some types of goods. Given the unlikelihood of renewed rapid population growth, the Keynesian model suggests that the only alternative for increasing aggregate demand is state intervention through public spending and investment and reorientation of the financial system to achieve a dynamic redistribution of income. Based on these findings and on proposals of other analysts, a stragegy for revitalization is proposed which would imply a gradual income redistribution to allow increased consumption of mass produced goods by the low income groups. Direct consumption subsidies would be avoided because of their inflationary and import-expanding tendencies; rather, incentives and support would be

Comparative life-histories, population dynamics and productivity of Schistomysis populations (Crustacea, Mysida) in European shelf environments

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San Vicente, Carlos; Sorbe, Jean Claude

2013-08-01

A biological study of suprabenthic mysids of genus Schistomysis (Crustacea, Mysida, Mysidae) was carried out based on quantitative samples collected in coastal waters of the SE Bay of Biscay (NE Atlantic) and the Catalan Sea (W Mediterranean). Aspects of the ecology of species noted during this study are summarized and the results of previous researches are incorporated. Small and large-scale environmental factors (swash and surf climate, depth, temperature, day-night and seasonal cycles) contributed significantly to population distributions. All Schistomysis populations are characterized by faster individual growth and earlier maturity at higher temperature, resulting in intensive recruitment during spring or summer seasons in combination with higher fecundity of genitors. Regarding productivity, our production and P/B¯ estimates ranged between 2255-26,321 mg AFDW/100 m3/year and 6.09-9.73, respectively. These production values are similar to those found for comparable marine mysids with two or three generations per year. The observed demographic heterogeneity and production of populations has ecological implications in the Bay of Biscay and Mediterranean areas, where Schistomysis species are dominant components of littoral and shelf suprabenthic communities.

Inflation, GDP growth and population change in the USA

OpenAIRE

Ivan Kitov

2005-01-01

Inflation in the USA between 1960 and 2004 is studied in the framework of the revealed rigidity of the personal income distribution normalized to the total nominal GDP. Inflation is found to be a mechanism, which prevents changes in the relative incomes induced by economic growth and population changes - both in number and age structure. A model is developed linking CPI to GDP growth rate and relative change of the number of people of some specific age. The GDP growth rate is characterized by...

[Fifty years of population growth and absorbing manual labor in Brazil, 1950-2000].

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Paiva, P D

1986-01-01

The economically active population has grown rapidly in Brazil, resulting either from population growth or increased female participation in the work force. This rhythm of growth will continue at least until the end of this century. The authors suggest that the impact of the recent decline in fertility will be moderate and will only affect the younger age groups. Despite the rapid growth of employment in the processing industry, the relative size of the so-called informal sector has remained stable since 1950. It is further predicted that, given the economically active population's rate of growth and the decrease in employment in agriculture, there will be a great demand for urban employment in the next 20 years.

Population ageing alongside health care spending growth

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Jakovljević Mihajlo

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Silver Tsunami or population ageing has become a globally widespread phenomenon. The purpose of this review is to observe its dynamics and consequences from a local Balkan perspective. The main drivers of this unique demographic evolution are extended longevity, improved early childhood survival, absorption of women into the labor markets, and consequences of sexual revolution leading to falling female fertility. This process lasting well over a century is taking its toll on contemporary societies. Major side effects are shrinking young labor force and growing pool of elderly and retired citizens in many countries. This equation tends to worsen further in the future threatening long-term financial sustainability of public social and health insurance funds. Notable health expenditure growth, accelerating worldwide since the 1960s, is to a large degree attributable to ageing itself. Growing share of senior citizens increases demand for medical services and costs of health care provision. Home-based care provided by the family caregivers presents another important reality putting a huge burden on modern communities. Serbs are no exception in this landscape. Historical demographic evolution of this nation gives a clear evidence of advanced and accelerated ageing, which is well documented in post-World War II era. This synthesis of rich published evidence shows clear upward parallel trend between the pace of population aging and the growth of health expenditure. National authorities shall be forced to consider reform of the current health care financing pattern inherited from the demographic growth era. This might be the only way to smooth out the impact of population ageing on the financial sustainability of the health system and long-term medical care in Serbia. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. OI 175014

Psychologists and the problem of population growth : Reply to Bridgeman

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Clayton, Susan; Carrico, Amanda; Steg, Linda; Swim, Janet K.; Bonnes, Mirilia; Devine-Wright, Patrick

2017-01-01

Bridgeman (2017) describes the important role of population growth in contributing to environmental problems. The present essay argues that population is an important component of human impact on the environment, but it must be considered in combination with consumption rates. A place-based

Age and growth of two populations of West Coast steenbras ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... density-dependent competition for food, or biochemical genetic variations between the two populations, are possible reasons for the geographic differences found in the growth rates and length-at-age. Slow growth and longevity are characteristics of West Coast steenbras that make it extremely susceptible to overfishing; ...

Clonal variation in growth plasticity within a Bosmina longirostris population: the potential for resistance to toxic cyanobacteria.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaodong Jiang

Full Text Available Many aquatic organisms respond phenotypically, through morphological, behavioral, and physiological plasticity, to environmental changes. The small-size cladoceran Bosminalongirostris, a dominant zooplankter in eutrophic waters, displayed reduced growth rates in response to the presence of a toxic cyanobacterium, Microcystisaeruginosa, in their diets. The magnitude of growth reduction differed among 15 clones recently isolated from a single population. A significant interaction between clone and food type indicated a genetic basis for the difference in growth plasticity. The variation in phenotypic plasticity was visualized by plotting reaction norms with two diets. The resistance of each clone to dietary cyanobacteria was measured as the relative change in growth rates on the "poor" diet compared with the "good" diet. The enhanced resistance to M. aeruginosa in B. longirostris was derived from both the reduced slope of reaction norms and the increased mean growth rates with two diets. The large clonal variation within a B. longirostris population may contribute to local adaptation to toxic cyanobacteria and influence ecosystem function via clonal succession.

Population Growth Rate: Teaching Guide. Measures of Progress Poster Kit Number 2.

Science.gov (United States)

World Bank, Washington, DC.

This teaching guide accompanies the Population Growth Rate poster kit which is designed to teach students about population growth differences between rich and poor nations and about what people in developing countries are doing to help improve their quality of life. The guide is designed for use with: (1) a poster map of the world providing social…

Rapid population growth and fragile environments: the sub-Saharan African and south Asian experience.

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Caldwell, J C; Caldwell, P

1994-02-18

Case studies of the world's two poorest regions, sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia, were used to illustrate the compromised standard of living of the poor and environmental damage due to continued rapid population growth. The conclusion was that the livelihoods of the poor should not be endangered for preserving the living standards of richer people. Nations must not ignore the challenges of reducing population growth as fast as can be achieved. The transitional period over the next 50 years is the main concern, because population growth rates will be slowing. Rural population growth is expected to decline from 60% of total population growth in South Asia to 7% between 2000 and 2025; similarly the decline in sub-Saharan Africa would be from 50% to 15%. Over the past 30 years, food production in South Asia has kept pace with population growth. Sub-Saharan Africa has adopted food importation to meet demand. African problems are a low resource base, faster population growth, and the fact that governments and individuals are too poor to maintain soil fertility. Long-term studies of how much soil depletion will occur are not available for these regions, and local area studies are not as pessimistic. Transition policies are needed to put "people first in terms of engineered or directed population and ecological change." The six main issues are the following: 1) the Brundtland Commission appropriately identified poverty as the main cause and effect of environmental degradation because of the threat to survival; 2) the verdict is still out about whether food production will keep pace with population growth through economic growth and investment in agriculture; 3) empirical research is needed to examine local social and regulatory institutions and the possibility of reinforcing these mechanisms rather than instituting central controls; 4) central coercion or modernizing economic policies can destroy local level controls; 5) famine is a complex ecological phenomenon and the

Herbivory by an introduced Asian weevil negatively affects population growth of an invasive Brazilian shrub in Florida.

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Stricker, Kerry Bohl; Stiling, Peter

2012-08-01

The enemy release hypothesis (ERH) is often cited to explain why some plants successfully invade natural communities while others do not. This hypothesis maintains that plant populations are regulated by coevolved enemies in their native range but are relieved of this pressure where their enemies have not been co-introduced. Some studies have shown that invasive plants sustain lower levels of herbivore damage when compared to native species, but how damage affects fitness and population dynamics remains unclear. We used a system of co-occurring native and invasive Eugenia congeners in south Florida (USA) to experimentally test the ERH, addressing deficiencies in our understanding of the role of natural enemies in plant invasion at the population level. Insecticide was used to experimentally exclude insect herbivores from invasive Eugenia uniflora and its native co-occurring congeners in the field for two years. Herbivore damage, plant growth, survival, and population growth rates for the three species were then compared for control and insecticide-treated plants. Our results contradict the ERH, indicating that E. uniflora sustains more herbivore damage than its native congeners and that this damage negatively impacts stem height, survival, and population growth. In addition, most damage to E. uniflora, a native of Brazil, is carried out by Myllocerus undatus, a recently introduced weevil from Sri Lanka, and M. undatus attacks a significantly greater proportion of E. uniflora leaves than those of its native congeners. This interaction is particularly interesting because M. undatus and E. uniflora share no coevolutionary history, having arisen on two separate continents and come into contact on a third. Our study is the first to document negative population-level effects for an invasive plant as a result of the introduction of a novel herbivore. Such inhibitory interactions are likely to become more prevalent as suites of previously noninteracting species continue to

Population Growth, Available Resources, and Quality of Life： China＇s Post-Reform Economic Development

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Tim Futing Liao; Hua Qin

2012-01-01

Two opposing intellectual traditions and their contem- porary developments regarding the relations among population, available resources, and quality of life as reflected in economic growth are reviewed. What is at issue is whether population growth is detrimental to or beneficial for economic development. Neither of the extreme views gives a complete picture of the interplay among population, resources, and quality of life. Following previ- ous literature on the topic, this paper establishes a more balanced approach that considers the function linking population and quality of life not constant but variable and regards the limitedness of resources as not absolute but relative to regions and societies. The proposed approach is more flexible in better explaining the relation between population and economic growth. China is examined as a case in point to shed light on the interaction of population growth, economic development, and available resources, and its recent post-economic reform experiences showcase the appropriateness of the synthetic approach.

Morbidity, rickets and long-bone growth in post-medieval Britain--a cross-population analysis.

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Pinhasi, R; Shaw, P; White, B; Ogden, A R

2006-01-01

Vitamin D deficiency rickets is associated with skeletal deformities including swollen rib junctions, bowing of the legs, and the flaring and fraying of the wrist and long-bone metaphyses. There is, however, scarce information on the direct effect of rickets on skeletal growth in either present or past populations. The study investigated the effect of vitamin D deficiency rickets on long-bone growth in two post-medieval skeletal populations from East London (Broadgate and Christ Church Spitalfields). Subsequently, inter-population growth variations in relation to non-specific environmental stress (dental enamel defects), industrialization, urbanization and socio-economic status during infancy (birth to 3 years) and early childhood (3-7 years) were examined. Data on long-bone diaphyseal length dimensions and stress indicators of 234 subadults from Anglo-Saxon, late medieval and post-medieval archaeological skeletal samples were analysed using both linear and non-linear growth models. Rickets had no effect on the growth curves for any of the long bones studied. However, pronounced variations in growth between the four populations were noted, mainly during infancy. The diaphyseal length of long bones of Broadgate were significantly smaller-per-age than those of Spitalfields and the other samples up to the age of 4 years, and were associated with a high prevalence of enamel defects during early infancy. Socio-economic status, rather than urbanization, industrialization or rickets, was the central factor behind the observed differences in growth among the post-medieval populations. The observed inter-population growth variations were only significant during infancy.

Population education in the school curriculum: a comparative analysis of the American and Asian models.

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Okobiah, O S

1981-02-01

The content, strategies, and objectives of population education curriculum materials developed for use in school systems in a developed country (US) and in a developing country (Thailand) were compared. It was assumed that the objectives and strategies of population education developed in a specific country would reflect the way in which population matters were viewed by that country's policy makers and planners. In developed countries, population education is primarily an outgrowth of environmental concerns. In less developed countries population education is pursued mainly because of concerns about rapid population growth. The specific curriculum materials which were analyzed were the Population, Environmental-Ecological Education Project developed by the Missouri State Department of Education and the Population and Family Education Project developed in Bangkok. A conceptual framework for analyzing the content of the materials was developed. The framework included 5 major parameters. These parameters were 1) a description of the human population, 2) basic population concepts and processes, 3) population dynamics, 4) the causes and consequences of population change, and 5) population issues. Content analysis of the materials revealed that the content focus was similar for both of the curriculum materials. 74% of the Asian curricula and 73% of the US curricula focused on population issues and on the causes and consequences of population growth; however, the US materials emphasized environmental consequences and policies while the Asian materials emphasized family planning policies and the effects of population growth on family, community, sociocultural, and personal factors. Marked differences were revealed when the instructional strategies and course objectives of the materials were judged in reference to established educational standards of objectivity. All of the sampled instructional strategies in the US materials were judged as suitable for use in the formal

Non-target toxicity of synthetic insecticides on the biological performance and population growth of Bracon hebetor Say.

Science.gov (United States)

Muslim, Mohammad; Ansari, M Shafiq; Hasan, Fazil

2018-05-24

Bracon hebetor Say (Hymenoptera: Braconidae) is an important biological control agent of various species of order Lepidoptera and extensively used in biological control program worldwide. Present study evaluated the lethal and sublethal effects of insecticides on B. hebetor using demographic and population growth parameters. Doses of all the tested insecticides were within a maximum range of their recommended field dosages and adults were treated using residual glass vials method. For control experiments adults were treated with distilled water. Among the tested insecticides, the survivorship of various stages of B. hebetor was considerably prolonged on cyantraniliprole followed by chlorantraniliprole and shortest on chlorpyrifos and profenofos treated group. Total immature development time was prolonged in chlorpyrifos and profenofos treated group. Population growth parameters like intrinsic rate of natural increase (r m ), net reproductive rate (R 0 ), finite rate of increase (λ) and mean generation time (T c ) were considerably reduced in B. hebetor groups treated with chlorpyrifos and profenofos. However, B. hebetor groups treated with chlorantraniliprole and cyantraniliprole showed a little or no much difference in population growth parameters when compared with untreated group. It was also observed that chlorpyrifos and profenofos modified the sex ratio, thereby female emergence get reduced. On the basis of present findings it can be concluded that all tested insecticides caused considerable ecotoxic effects on B. hebetor compared to control. However, comparisons among the tested insecticides on the basis of IOBC criteria showed that chlorantraniliprol and cyntraniliprol was less toxic as compared to other insecticides tested on this biological control agent.

Population growth of Mexican free-tailed bats (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana predates human agricultural activity

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Cox Murray P

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Human activities, such as agriculture, hunting, and habitat modification, exert a significant effect on native species. Although many species have suffered population declines, increased population fragmentation, or even extinction in connection with these human impacts, others seem to have benefitted from human modification of their habitat. Here we examine whether population growth in an insectivorous bat (Tadarida brasiliensis mexicana can be attributed to the widespread expansion of agriculture in North America following European settlement. Colonies of T. b. mexicana are extremely large (~106 individuals and, in the modern era, major agricultural insect pests form an important component of their food resource. It is thus hypothesized that the growth of these insectivorous bat populations was coupled to the expansion of agricultural land use in North America over the last few centuries. Results We sequenced one haploid and one autosomal locus to determine the rate and time of onset of population growth in T. b. mexicana. Using an approximate Maximum Likelihood method, we have determined that T. b. mexicana populations began to grow ~220 kya from a relatively small ancestral effective population size before reaching the large effective population size observed today. Conclusions Our analyses reject the hypothesis that T. b. mexicana populations grew in connection with the expansion of human agriculture in North America, and instead suggest that this growth commenced long before the arrival of humans. As T. brasiliensis is a subtropical species, we hypothesize that the observed signals of population growth may instead reflect range expansions of ancestral bat populations from southern glacial refugia during the tail end of the Pleistocene.

Urban Ecology: Patterns of Population Growth and Ecological Effects

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Wayne C. Zipperer; Steward T.A. Pickett

2012-01-01

Currently, over 50% of the world’s population lives in urban areas. By 2050, this estimate is expected to be 70%. This urban growth, however, is not uniformly distributed around the world. The majority of it will occur in developing nations and create megacities whose populations exceed at least 10 million people. Not all urban areas, however, are growing. Some are...

Modeling the pre-industrial roots of modern super-exponential population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Stutz, Aaron Jonas

2014-01-01

To Malthus, rapid human population growth-so evident in 18th Century Europe-was obviously unsustainable. In his Essay on the Principle of Population, Malthus cogently argued that environmental and socioeconomic constraints on population rise were inevitable. Yet, he penned his essay on the eve of the global census size reaching one billion, as nearly two centuries of super-exponential increase were taking off. Introducing a novel extension of J. E. Cohen's hallmark coupled difference equation model of human population dynamics and carrying capacity, this article examines just how elastic population growth limits may be in response to demographic change. The revised model involves a simple formalization of how consumption costs influence carrying capacity elasticity over time. Recognizing that complex social resource-extraction networks support ongoing consumption-based investment in family formation and intergenerational resource transfers, it is important to consider how consumption has impacted the human environment and demography--especially as global population has become very large. Sensitivity analysis of the consumption-cost model's fit to historical population estimates, modern census data, and 21st Century demographic projections supports a critical conclusion. The recent population explosion was systemically determined by long-term, distinctly pre-industrial cultural evolution. It is suggested that modern globalizing transitions in technology, susceptibility to infectious disease, information flows and accumulation, and economic complexity were endogenous products of much earlier biocultural evolution of family formation's embeddedness in larger, hierarchically self-organizing cultural systems, which could potentially support high population elasticity of carrying capacity. Modern super-exponential population growth cannot be considered separately from long-term change in the multi-scalar political economy that connects family formation and

Comparative growth performance of different Australian ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Comparative growth performance of different Australian provenances and local land ... and Ubiri in the West Usambara Mountains (WUM), North East Tanzania. ... with local land races for subsequent management as seed production stands.

Life history and spatial determinants of somatic growth dynamics in Komodo dragon populations

OpenAIRE

Laver, Rj; Purwandana, D; Ariefiandy, A; Imansyah, J; Forsyth, D; Ciofi, C; Jessop, Ts

2012-01-01

Somatic growth patterns represent a major component of organismal fitness and may vary among sexes and populations due to genetic and environmental processes leading to profound differences in life-history and demography. This study considered the ontogenic, sex-specific and spatial dynamics of somatic growth patterns in ten populations of the world's largest lizard the Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis). The growth of 400 individual Komodo dragons was measured in a capture-mark-recapture st...

On the growth of primary industry and population of China’s counties

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Wen-Jie; Gu, Gao-Feng; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2010-09-01

The growth dynamics of complex organizations have attracted much interest of econophysicists and sociophysicists in recent years. However, most of the studies are done for developed countries. We investigate the growth dynamics of the primary industry and the population of 2079 counties in mainland China using the data from the China County Statistical Yearbooks from 2000 to 2006. We find that the annual growth rates are distributed according to Student’s t distribution with the tail exponent less than 2. We find power-law relationships between the sample standard deviation of the growth rates and the initial size. The scaling exponent is less than 0.5 for the primary industry and close to 0.5 for the population.

Population growth, interest rate, and housing tax in the transitional China

Science.gov (United States)

He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

2017-03-01

This paper combines and develops the models in Lastrapes (2002) and Mankiw and Weil (1989), which enables us to analyze the effects of interest rate and population growth shocks on housing price in one integrated framework. Based on this model, we carry out policy simulations to examine whether the housing (stock or flow) tax reduces the housing price fluctuations caused by interest rate or population growth shocks. Simulation results imply that the choice of housing tax tools depends on the kind of shock that housing market faces. In the situation where the housing price volatility is caused by the population growth shock, the flow tax can reduce the volatility of housing price while the stock tax makes no difference to it. If the shock is resulting from the interest rate, the policy maker should not impose any kind of the housing taxes. Furthermore, the effect of one kind of the housing tax can be strengthened by that of the other type of housing tax.

The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Kevin R; Ness, Joshua H; Bronstein, Judith L; Morris, William F

2015-10-01

The impact of mutualists on a partner's demography depends on how they affect the partner's multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and simulations of long-term population dynamics to quantify the demographic impact of a guild of ant species on the plant Ferocactus wislizeni. The ants feed at the plant's extrafloral nectaries and attack herbivores attempting to consume reproductive organs. Ant-guarded plants produced significantly more fruit, but ants had no significant effect on individual growth or survival. After integrating ant effects across these vital rates, we found that projected population growth was not significantly different between unguarded and ant-guarded plants because population growth was only weakly influenced by differences in fruit production (though strongly influenced by differences in individual growth and survival). However, simulations showed that ants could positively affect long-term plant population dynamics through services provided during rare but important events (herbivore outbreaks that reduce survival or years of high seedling recruitment associated with abundant precipitation). Thus, in this seemingly clear example of mutualism, the interaction may actually yield no clear benefit to plant population growth, or if it does, may only do so through the actions of the ants during rare events. These insights demonstrate the value of taking a demographic approach to studying the consequences of mutualism.

Using a laboratory-based growth model to estimate mass- and temperature-dependent growth parameters across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Russell W.; Plumb, John M.; Huntington, Charles

2015-01-01

To estimate the parameters that govern mass- and temperature-dependent growth, we conducted a meta-analysis of existing growth data from juvenile Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that were fed an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet. Although the growth of juvenile Chinook Salmon has been well studied, research has focused on a single population, a narrow range of fish sizes, or a narrow range of temperatures. Therefore, we incorporated the Ratkowsky model for temperature-dependent growth into an allometric growth model; this model was then fitted to growth data from 11 data sources representing nine populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon. The model fit the growth data well, explaining 98% of the variation in final mass. The estimated allometric mass exponent (b) was 0.338 (SE = 0.025), similar to estimates reported for other salmonids. This estimate of b will be particularly useful for estimating mass-standardized growth rates of juvenile Chinook Salmon. In addition, the lower thermal limit, optimal temperature, and upper thermal limit for growth were estimated to be 1.8°C (SE = 0.63°C), 19.0°C (SE = 0.27°C), and 24.9°C (SE = 0.02°C), respectively. By taking a meta-analytical approach, we were able to provide a growth model that is applicable across populations of juvenile Chinook Salmon receiving an ad libitum ration of a pelleted diet.

Modeling the growth of individuals in plant populations: local density variation in a strand population of Xanthium strumarium (Asteraceae).

Science.gov (United States)

Weiner, J; Kinsman, S; Williams, S

1998-11-01

We studied the growth of individual Xanthium strumarium plants growing at four naturally occurring local densities on a beach in Maine: (1) isolated plants, (2) pairs of plants ≤1 cm apart, (3) four plants within 4 cm of each other, and (4) discrete dense clumps of 10-39 plants. A combination of nondestructive measurements every 2 wk and parallel calibration harvests provided very good estimates of the growth in aboveground biomass of over 400 individual plants over 8 wk and afforded the opportunity to fit explicit growth models to 293 of them. There was large individual variation in growth and resultant size within the population and within all densities. Local crowding played a role in determining plant size within the population: there were significant differences in final size between all densities except pairs and quadruples, which were almost identical. Overall, plants growing at higher densities were more variable in growth and final size than plants growing at lower densities, but this was due to increased variation among groups (greater variation in local density and/or greater environmental heterogeneity), not to increased variation within groups. Thus, there was no evidence of size asymmetric competition in this population. The growth of most plants was close to exponential over the study period, but half the plants were slightly better fit by a sigmoidal (logistic) model. The proportion of plants better fit by the logistic model increased with density and with initial plant size. The use of explicit growth models over several growth intervals to describe stand development can provide more biological content and more statistical power than "growth-size" methods that analyze growth intervals separately.

Population Growth and Its Expression in Spatial Built-up Patterns: The Sana’a, Yemen Case Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gunter Zeug

2010-04-01

Full Text Available In light of rapid global urbanisation, monitoring and mapping of urban and population growth is of great importance. Population growth in Sana’a was investigated for this reason. The capital of the Republic of Yemen is a rapidly growing middle sized city where the population doubles almost every ten years. Satellite data from four different sensors were used to explore urban growth in Sana’a between 1989 and 2007, assisted by topographic maps and cadastral vector data. The analysis was conducted by delineating the built-up areas from the various optical satellite data, applying a fuzzy-rule-based composition of anisotropic textural measures and interactive thresholding. The resulting datasets were used to analyse urban growth and changes in built-up density per district, qualitatively as well as quantitatively, using a geographic information system. The built-up area increased by 87 % between 1989 and 2007. Built-up density has increased in all areas, but particularly in the northern and southern suburban districts, also reflecting the natural barrier of surrounding mountain ranges. Based on long-term population figures, geometric population growth was assumed. This hypothesis was used together with census data for 1994 and 2004 to estimate population figures for 1989 and 2007, resulting in overall growth of about 240%. By joining population figures to district boundaries, the spatial patterns of population distribution and growth were examined. Further, urban built-up growth and population changes over time were brought into relation in order to investigate changes in population density per built-up area. Population densities increased in all districts, with the greatest density change in the peripheral areas towards the North. The results reflect the pressure on the city’s infrastructure and natural resources and could contribute to sustainable urban planning in the city of Sana’a.

Customized versus Population Fetal Growth Norms and Adverse Outcomes Associated with Small for Gestational Age Infants in a High-Risk Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Moussa, Hind N; Wu, Zhao Helen; Han, Yimei; Pacheco, Luis D; Blackwell, Sean C; Sibai, Baha M; Saade, George; Costantine, Maged M

2015-06-01

To compare population versus customized fetal growth norms in identifying neonates at risk for adverse perinatal and neonatal outcomes (AOs) associated with small for gestational age (SGA) in high-risk women. Secondary analysis to a multicenter treatment trial of pregnant women at high risk for preeclampsia using low-dose aspirin versus placebo. The associations between SGA by population (SGApop) and customized (SGAcust) norms and AOs were evaluated. A total of 2,289 mother/infant pairs were included in the analysis. The rates of SGA in the aspirin and placebo groups were similar by the customized (22.8% vs 23.9%; p = 0.55) or population (8.7% vs 7.5%; p = 0.54) norms; however, they were lower using population norms compared with customized norms (p growth was associated with higher SGA rates and better identification of SGA neonates at risk for AOs. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Contributions of long-distance dispersal to population growth in colonising Pinus ponderosa populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lesser, Mark R; Jackson, Stephen T

2013-03-01

Long-distance dispersal is an integral part of plant species migration and population development. We aged and genotyped 1125 individuals in four disjunct populations of Pinus ponderosa that were initially established by long-distance dispersal in the 16th and 17th centuries. Parentage analysis was used to determine if individuals were the product of local reproductive events (two parents present), long-distance pollen dispersal (one parent present) or long-distance seed dispersal (no parents present). All individuals established in the first century at each site were the result of long-distance dispersal. Individuals reproduced at younger ages with increasing age of the overall population. These results suggest Allee effects, where populations were initially unable to expand on their own, and were dependent on long-distance dispersal to overcome a minimum-size threshold. Our results demonstrate that long-distance dispersal was not only necessary for initial colonisation but also to sustain subsequent population growth during early phases of expansion. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Population growth, economic security, and cultural change in wilderness counties

Science.gov (United States)

Paul A. Lorah

2000-01-01

A familiar version of the “jobs versus the environment” argument asserts that wilderness areas limit economic growth by locking up potentially productive natural resources. Analysis of the development paths of rural Western counties shows that this is unlikely: the presence of Wilderness is correlated with income, employment and population growth. Similarly, Wilderness...

AGEING POPULATION: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS AMONG EUROPEAN UNION STATES

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Laura DIACONU (MAXIM

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The aging population is a global phenomenon, which has affected almost all the EU states. The consequences are very important since it affects the socio-economic environment usually on the long run. Some of them could consist in increasing the public expenditure on pensions, social security and health services, which will raise the overall burden on the working population. Sometimes, a significant reduction of the labour force will even diminish the growth rate of an economy. Considering these aspects, the present paper intends to analyse the demographic situation from the EU states, the factors that have generated it and to identify the possible future trends. To determine the evolution of the ageing population phenomenon, we have analysed some demographic indicators included in various statistical reports and databases, such as the fertility rate, the median age, the percentage of population over a certain age and the age dependency ratio.

An exponential growth model with decreasing r captures bottom-up effects on the population growth of Aphis glycines Matsumura (Hemiptera: Aphididae)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Costamagna, A.C.; Werf, van der W.; Bianchi, F.J.J.A.; Landis, D.A.

2007-01-01

1 There is ample evidence that the life history and population dynamics of aphids are closely linked to plant phenology. Based on life table studies, it has been proposed that the growth of aphid populations could be modeled with an exponential growth model, with r decreasing linearly with time.

Selection for life-history traits to maximize population growth in an invasive marine species

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaspers, Cornelia; Marty, Lise; Kiørboe, Thomas

2018-01-01

Species establishing outside their natural range, negatively impacting local ecosystems, are of increasing global concern. They often display life-history features characteristic for r-selected populations with fast growth and high reproduction rates to achieve positive population growth rates (r...

Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John P DeLong

Full Text Available Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

Current demographics suggest future energy supplies will be inadequate to slow human population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar; Hamilton, Marcus J

2010-10-05

Influential demographic projections suggest that the global human population will stabilize at about 9-10 billion people by mid-century. These projections rest on two fundamental assumptions. The first is that the energy needed to fuel development and the associated decline in fertility will keep pace with energy demand far into the future. The second is that the demographic transition is irreversible such that once countries start down the path to lower fertility they cannot reverse to higher fertility. Both of these assumptions are problematic and may have an effect on population projections. Here we examine these assumptions explicitly. Specifically, given the theoretical and empirical relation between energy-use and population growth rates, we ask how the availability of energy is likely to affect population growth through 2050. Using a cross-country data set, we show that human population growth rates are negatively related to per-capita energy consumption, with zero growth occurring at ∼13 kW, suggesting that the global human population will stop growing only if individuals have access to this amount of power. Further, we find that current projected future energy supply rates are far below the supply needed to fuel a global demographic transition to zero growth, suggesting that the predicted leveling-off of the global population by mid-century is unlikely to occur, in the absence of a transition to an alternative energy source. Direct consideration of the energetic constraints underlying the demographic transition results in a qualitatively different population projection than produced when the energetic constraints are ignored. We suggest that energetic constraints be incorporated into future population projections.

JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

OpenAIRE

Wei-Bin ZHANG

2017-01-01

This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic me...

Is faster economic growth compatible with reductions in carbon emissions? The role of diminished population growth

Science.gov (United States)

Casey, Gregory; Galor, Oded

2017-01-01

We provide evidence that lower fertility can simultaneously increase income per capita and lower carbon emissions, eliminating a trade-off central to most policies aimed at slowing global climate change. We estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the fact that changes in fertility patterns affect carbon emissions through three channels: total population, the age structure of the population, and economic output. Our analysis proceeds in two steps. First, we estimate the elasticity of carbon emissions with respect to population and income per capita in an unbalanced yearly panel of cross-country data from 1950-2010. We demonstrate that the elasticity with respect to population is nearly seven times larger than the elasticity with respect to income per capita and that this difference is statistically significant. Thus, the regression results imply that 1% slower population growth could be accompanied by an increase in income per capita of nearly 7% while still lowering carbon emissions. In the second part of our analysis, we use a recently constructed economic-demographic model of Nigeria to estimate the effect of lower fertility on carbon emissions, accounting for the impacts of fertility on population growth, population age structure, and income per capita. We find that by 2100 C.E. moving from the medium to the low variant of the UN fertility projection leads to 35% lower yearly emissions and 15% higher income per capita. These results suggest that population policies could be part of the approach to combating global climate change.

Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2016-04-28

Apr 28, 2016 ... Poverty, population growth, and youth violence in DRC's cities ... Learn more about what drives DRC's urban violence and how it is linked to poverty ... ​Youth violence and the shift of land disputes from rural communities into ...

The Implications of Diagnosis of Small for Gestational Age Fetuses Using European and South Asian Growth Charts: An Outcome-Based Comparative Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gianpaolo Maso

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The antenatal condition of small for gestational age (SGA is significantly associated with perinatal morbidity and mortality and it is known that there are significant differences in birth weight and fetal size among different populations. The aim of our study was to assess the impact on outcomes of the diagnosis of SGA according to Bangladeshi and European antenatal growth charts in Sri Lankan population. The estimated fetal weight before delivery was retrospectively reviewed according to Bangladeshi and European growth references. Three groups were identified: Group 1-SGA according to Bangladeshi growth chart; Group 2-SGA according to European growth chart but not having SGA according to Bangladeshi growth chart; Group 3-No SGA according to both charts. There was a difference in prevalence of SGA between Bangladeshi and European growth charts: 12.7% and 51.7%, respectively. There were statistically significant higher rates in emergency cesarean section, fetal distress in labour, and intrauterine death (P<0.001 in Group 1 compared with Group, 2 and 3. No differences of outcomes occurred between Groups 2 and 3. Our study demonstrated that only cases diagnosed as SGA according to population-based growth charts are at risk of adverse outcome. The use of inappropriate prenatal growth charts might lead to misdiagnosis and potential unnecessary interventions.

Population dynamics of bowfin in a south Georgia reservoir: latitudinal comparisons of population structure, growth, and mortality

Science.gov (United States)

Porter, Nicholas J.; Bonvechio, Timothy F.; McCormick, Joshua L.; Quist, Michael

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study were to evaluate the population dynamics of bowfin (Amia calva) in Lake Lindsay Grace, Georgia, and to compare those dynamics to other bowfin populations. Relative abundance of bowfin sampled in 2010 in Lake Lindsay Grace was low and variable (mean±SD; 2.7±4.7 fish per hour of electrofishing). Total length (TL) of bowfin collected in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 233–683 mm. Age of bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace varied from 0–5 yr. Total annual mortality (A) was estimated at 68%. Both sexes appeared to be fully mature by age 2 with gonadosomatic index values above 8 for females and close to 1 for males. The majority of females were older, longer, and heavier than males. Bowfin in Lake Lindsay Grace had fast growth up to age 4 and higher total annual mortality than the other populations examined in this study. A chi-square test indicated that size structure of bowfin from Lake Lindsay Grace was different than those of a Louisiana population and two bowfin populations from the upper Mississippi River. To further assess bowfin size structure, we proposed standard length (i.e., TL) categories: stock (200 mm, 8 inches), quality (350 mm, 14 inches), preferred (460 mm, 18 inches), memorable (560 mm, 22, inches), and trophy (710 mm, 28 inches). Because our knowledge of bowfin ecology is limited, additional understanding of bowfin population dynamics provides important insight that can be used in management of bowfin across their distribution.

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-12-13

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

525 Population Growth, Hysteresis and Development Outcomes in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

technique of analysis is the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bound test for long-run ..... Where; y is the actual income; λ is the adjustment factor and gy is output per ... income per capita if population growth leaves the ratio of workers to total ..... 0.00 and 0.01 probability values are not normally distributed around the.

Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: some recent evidence.

Science.gov (United States)

Ram, R

1984-04-01

The relationship between population increase, economic growth, education and income inequality was examined in a cross-section study based on data from 26 developing and 2 developed countries. As other studies have noted, high population growth is associated with a less equal income distribution. A 1 percentage point reduction in the rate of population growth tends to raise the income share of the poorest 80% in the less developed world by almost 5 percentage points and is associated with a 1.7 percentage point increase in the income share of the poorest 40%. The relationship between short-run income growth and equality, on the other hand, is strong and positive. Estimates suggest that a 1 percentage point increase in the short-run rate of growth of the gross domestic product (GDP) increases the income share of the bottom 80% by about 2 percentage points and that of the poorest 40% by almost 1 percentage point. Although higher mean schooling appears to be a mild equalizer, educational inequality does not appear to have an adverse effect on income distribution. Overall, these results challenge the widely held belief that there must be a growth-equity trade-off. Moreover, they suggest that the impact of educational inequality on income distribution may be different from that observed in earlier studies, implying a need for caution in using these earlier results as a basis for educational policy development.

Strong persistent growth differences govern individual performance and population dynamics in a tropical forest understorey palm

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, M.; Zuidema, P.A.; Anten, N.P.R.; Martínez-Ramos, M.

2012-01-01

1. Persistent variation in growth rate between individual plants can have strong effects on population dynamics as fast growers reach the reproductive size at an earlier age and thus potentially contribute more to population growth than slow growers. In tropical forests, such persistent growth

Influence of Cell-Cell Interactions on the Population Growth Rate in a Tumor

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yong

2017-12-01

The understanding of the macroscopic phenomenological models of the population growth at a microscopic level is important to predict the population behaviors emerged from the interactions between the individuals. In this work, we consider the influence of the population growth rate R on the cell-cell interaction in a tumor system and show that, in most cases especially small proliferative probabilities, the regulative role of the interaction will be strengthened with the decline of the intrinsic proliferative probabilities. For the high replication rates of an individual and the cooperative interactions, the proliferative probability almost has no effect. We compute the dependences of R on the interactions between the cells under the approximation of the nearest neighbor in the rim of an avascular tumor. Our results are helpful to qualitatively understand the influence of the interactions between the individuals on the growth rate in population systems. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos. 11675008 and 21434001

The effects of declining population growth on the demand for housing.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas C. Marcin

1974-01-01

Declining population growth and unprecedented changes in the age structure of the population in the next several decades will profoundly affect housing demand in the next 50 years. A decline in housing demand and substantial change in the type of housing in demand are likely to occur by 1990.

Population studies of echinoderms and growth and mortality of sea cucumbers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebert, T.A.

1979-01-01

Progress is reported on the following studies: methods of collecting sea cucumbers; determination of growth rates of plates of the calcareous ring; use of growth parameters and a length-frequency distribution to estimate mortality and population turnover; movement of materials through the atoll ecosystem; and autoradiographic studies on spines of sea urchins

A necessary condition for dispersal driven growth of populations with discrete patch dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Guiver, Chris; Packman, David; Townley, Stuart

2017-07-07

We revisit the question of when can dispersal-induced coupling between discrete sink populations cause overall population growth? Such a phenomenon is called dispersal driven growth and provides a simple explanation of how dispersal can allow populations to persist across discrete, spatially heterogeneous, environments even when individual patches are adverse or unfavourable. For two classes of mathematical models, one linear and one non-linear, we provide necessary conditions for dispersal driven growth in terms of the non-existence of a common linear Lyapunov function, which we describe. Our approach draws heavily upon the underlying positive dynamical systems structure. Our results apply to both discrete- and continuous-time models. The theory is illustrated with examples and both biological and mathematical conclusions are drawn. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The Effect of Temperature and Host Plant Resistance on Population Growth of the Soybean Aphid Biotype 1 (Hemiptera: Aphididae).

Science.gov (United States)

Hough, Ashley R; Nechols, James R; McCornack, Brian P; Margolies, David C; Sandercock, Brett K; Yan, Donglin; Murray, Leigh

2017-02-01

A laboratory experiment was conducted to evaluate direct and indirect effects of temperature on demographic traits and population growth of biotype 1 of the soybean aphid, Aphis glycines Matsumura. Our objectives were to better understand how temperature influences the expression of host plant resistance, quantify the individual and interactive effects of plant resistance and temperature on soybean aphid population growth, and generate thermal constants for predicting temperature-dependent development on both susceptible and resistant soybeans. To assess indirect (plant-mediated) effects, soybean aphids were reared under a range of temperatures (15-30 °C) on soybean seedlings from a line expressing a Rag1 gene for resistance, and life history traits were quantified and compared to those obtained for soybean aphids on a susceptible soybean line. Direct effects of temperature were obtained by comparing relative differences in the magnitude of life-history traits among temperatures on susceptible soybeans. We predicted that temperature and host plant resistance would have a combined, but asymmetrical, effect on soybean aphid fitness and population growth. Results showed that temperature and plant resistance influenced preimaginal development and survival, progeny produced, and adult longevity. There also appeared to be a complex interaction between temperature and plant resistance for survival and developmental rate. Evidence suggested that the level of plant resistance increased at higher, but not lower, temperature. Soybean aphids required about the same number of degree-days to develop on resistant and susceptible plants. Our results will be useful for making predictions of soybean aphid population growth on resistant plants under different seasonal temperatures. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Health Expenditure Growth under Single-Payer Systems: Comparing South Korea and Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Shou-Hsia; Jin, Hyun-Hyo; Yang, Bong-Min; Blank, Robert H

2018-05-03

Achieving universal health coverage has been an important goal for many countries worldwide. However, the rapid growth of health expenditures has challenged all nations, both those with and without such universal coverage. Single-payer systems are considered more efficient for administrative affairs and may be more effective for containing costs than multipayer systems. However, South Korea, which has a typical single-payer scheme, has almost the highest growth rate in health expenditures among industrialized countries. The aim of the present study is to explicate this situation by comparing South Korea with Taiwan. This study analyzed statistical reports published by government departments in South Korea and Taiwan from 2001 to 2015, including population and economic statistics, health statistics, health expenditures, and social health insurance reports. Between 2001 and 2015, the per capita national health expenditure (NHE) in South Korea grew 292%, whereas the corresponding growth of per capita NHE in Taiwan was only 83%. We find that the national health insurance (NHI) global budget cap in Taiwan may have restricted the growth of health expenditures. Less comprehensive benefit coverage for essential diagnosis/treatment services under the South Korean NHI program may have contributed to the growth of out-of-pocket payments. The expansion of insurance coverage for vulnerable individuals may also contribute to higher growth in NHE in South Korea. Explicit regulation of health care resource distribution may also lead to more limited provisioning and utilization of health services in Taiwan. Under analogous single-payer systems, South Korea had a much higher growth in health spending than Taiwan. The annual budget cap for total reimbursement, more comprehensive coverage for essential diagnosis and treatment services, and the regulation of health care resource distribution are important factors associated with the growth of health expenditures. Copyright © 2018

Experimental exposure to cadmium affects metallothionein-like protein levels but not survival and growth in wolf spiders from polluted and reference populations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eraly, Debbie, E-mail: debbie.eraly@ugent.b [Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Hendrickx, Frederik, E-mail: frederik.hendrickx@naturalsciences.b [Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Royal Belgian Institute of Natural Sciences, Department of Entomology, Vautierstraat 29, 1000 Brussels (Belgium); Bervoets, Lieven, E-mail: lieven.bervoets@ua.ac.b [Ecophysiology, Biochemistry and Toxicology Group, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Groenenborgerlaan 171, 2020 Antwerp (Belgium); Lens, Luc, E-mail: luc.lens@ugent.b [Terrestrial Ecology Unit, Department of Biology, Ghent University, K.L. Ledeganckstraat 35, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

2010-06-15

Both local adaptation and acclimation in tolerance mechanisms may allow populations to persist under metal pollution. However, both mechanisms are presumed to incur (energetic) costs and to trade-off with other life-history traits. To test this hypothesis, we exposed Pardosa saltans (Lycosidae) spiderlings originating from metal-polluted and unpolluted sites to a controlled cadmium (Cd) treatment, and compared contents of metal-binding metallothionein-like proteins (MTLPs), internal metal concentrations, and individual survival and growth rates with a reference treatment. While increased MTLP concentrations in offspring originating from both polluted and unpolluted populations upon exposure indicates a plastic tolerance mechanism, survival and growth rates remain largely unaffected, independent of the population of origin. However, MTLP and Cd concentrations were not significantly correlated. We suggest that MTLP production may be an important mechanism enabling P. saltans populations to persist in ecosystems polluted with heavy metals above a certain level. - Spiders from metal-polluted and unpolluted populations show a similar increase in MTLP production when exposed to Cd, with unaffected growth and survival.

Experimental exposure to cadmium affects metallothionein-like protein levels but not survival and growth in wolf spiders from polluted and reference populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eraly, Debbie; Hendrickx, Frederik; Bervoets, Lieven; Lens, Luc

2010-01-01

Both local adaptation and acclimation in tolerance mechanisms may allow populations to persist under metal pollution. However, both mechanisms are presumed to incur (energetic) costs and to trade-off with other life-history traits. To test this hypothesis, we exposed Pardosa saltans (Lycosidae) spiderlings originating from metal-polluted and unpolluted sites to a controlled cadmium (Cd) treatment, and compared contents of metal-binding metallothionein-like proteins (MTLPs), internal metal concentrations, and individual survival and growth rates with a reference treatment. While increased MTLP concentrations in offspring originating from both polluted and unpolluted populations upon exposure indicates a plastic tolerance mechanism, survival and growth rates remain largely unaffected, independent of the population of origin. However, MTLP and Cd concentrations were not significantly correlated. We suggest that MTLP production may be an important mechanism enabling P. saltans populations to persist in ecosystems polluted with heavy metals above a certain level. - Spiders from metal-polluted and unpolluted populations show a similar increase in MTLP production when exposed to Cd, with unaffected growth and survival.

The impact of population growth on environment: the debate heats up.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, R P

1992-02-01

A proposed framework, which was introduced at the 1989 meetings of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, included political constraints as well as population growth as a proximate cause with potentially important impacts on the environment in Paul and Ann Ehrlich's well-known PAT equation. PAT limitations are identified as the 1.2 billion people caught in the debt-poverty trap, less developed countries' balance of payments deficits, and "distortionary factors" that undermined economic incentives and contributed to mismanagement of resources. Such factors could be keeping farm prices low and have an impact on deterring use of environmentally sound traditional agricultural practices. Mismanagement of public lands occurs when large commercial enterprises or large scale mechanization displace population onto marginal or less productive lands. Intergroup warfare is a new form impacting on the environment. In Burma loggers are authorized to clear cut large tracts of teak forests in order to ferret out Karen guerrillas. Over 15 million refugees were thus displaced and forced to live in encampments that require trees for shelter, firewood for survival, and overgrazing of livestock. Social and economic environments are also undermined by "dependency" factors such as trade protectionism, brain drain, and limited foreign aid. The Group of 77 Non-Aligned Developing Countries proposed that discussions of the links between population and the environment be omitted from the agenda of the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development. Basic clarifications are needed to distinguish ultimate versus proximate factors and current versus future concerns. The debate ignores distribution patterns, migration, or changing age structures. The debate blames unjustifiably rapid population growth as the ultimate cause of global environmental degradation and links population growth to a host of other social problems such as famine and refugees, while ignoring civil unrest

A phenomenological theory of world population growth and global problems

CERN Document Server

Kapitza, Sergei P

1996-01-01

Of all global problems world population growth is the most significant one. To describe this process in its past and project it into the future a mathematical model is worked out. It treats the world population as an entity, seen as an open and evolv The approach is phenomenological and growth over very many generations is assumed to be selfsimilar and described by scaling. In terms of kinetics, the growth rate is proportional to the square of the total number of people and the nonlinear hyperbol of all mechanisms that contribute to our development in a collective interactive process. The model gives an estimate of the beginning of human evolution c.a. 4.4 million years ago and of the total number of people who ever lived c.a. 100 billion. In the scope of the model large scale cycles defined by history and anthropology are shown to be uniformly spaced in time on a logarithmic scale, expressing and inherent periodicity. As we approach the present, this progression of cycles is now termo transition. This is a s...

Rapid population growth and environmental degradation: ultimate versus proximate factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Shaw, R P

1989-01-01

This philosophical review of 2 arguments about responsibility for and solutions to environmental degradation concludes that both sides are correct: the ultimate and the proximal causes. Ultimate causes of pollution are defined as the technology responsible for a given type of pollution, such as burning fossil fuel; proximate causes are defined as situation-specific factors confounding the problem, such as population density or rate of growth. Commoner and others argue that developed countries with low or negative population growth rates are responsible for 80% of world pollution, primarily in polluting technologies such as automobiles, power generation, plastics, pesticides, toxic wastes, garbage, warfaring, and nuclear weapons wastes. Distortionary policies also contribute; examples are agricultural trade protection, land mismanagement, urban bias in expenditures, and institutional rigidity., Poor nations are responsible for very little pollution because poverty allows little waste or expenditures for polluting, synthetic technologies. The proximal causes of pollution include numbers and rate of growth of populations responsible for the pollution. Since change in the ultimate cause of pollution remains out of reach, altering the numbers of polluters can make a difference. Predictions are made for proportions of the world's total waste production, assuming current 1.6 tons/capita for developed countries and 0.17 tons/capita for developing countries. If developing countries grow at current rates and become more wealthy, they will be emitting half the world's waste by 2025. ON the other hand, unsustainable population growth goes along with inadequate investment in human capital: education, health, employment, infrastructure. The solution is to improve farming technologies in the 117 non-self-sufficient countries, fund development in the most unsustainable enclaves of growing countries, break institutionalized socio-political rigidity in these enclaves, and focus on

Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

2016-01-01

Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (Q(ST)) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F'(ST)), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by

Analysis of Urban Growth in Edwardsville Illinois Using Remote Sensing and Population Change

Science.gov (United States)

Onuoha, Hilda U.

Rapid urbanization is one of the many critical, global issues. This very significant social and economic phenomenon has brought about much debate in the past twenty years and has become a very important policy issue. Understanding its dynamics and patterns is important to develop appropriate policies and make more informed planning decisions. Many dimensions to the urban land growth have been identified in related literature including drivers, relationship with other factors like population, impacts, and methods of measurement. In this study, urban growth in the Edwardsville area (composed of Edwardsville and Glen Carbon, Illinois) is analyzed spatio-temporally using remote sensing and population change from 1990 to 2015. The objectives of this study are (a) identifying the major land use changes in the Edwardsville area from 1990 to 2015, (b) analyzing the rate of urban growth and its relationship to population change in the area from 1990 to 2015, (c) identifying the general pattern and direction of urban growth in the study area. Using multi-temporal satellite images to classify and derive changes in land cover classes during the study period, results showed that the land cover classes with major changes are the urban/built-up land and agricultural/grassland, with a steady increase in the former and steady decrease in the later. Results also show the highest rate of increase in urban land was between 2000 and 2010. In comparison to population, the both show increase over the study years but urban land shows a higher rate of increase indicating dispersion. To analyze urban growth pattern in the area, the study area was divided into three zones: NE, SE, and W. The SE zone showed the highest amount of the growth and from the results, the infill type of growth was inferred.

Rapid Population Growth and Human Carrying Capacity: Two Perspectives. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 690 and Population and Development Series No. 15.

Science.gov (United States)

Mahar, Dennis J., Ed.; And Others

Two perspectives on carrying capacity and population growth are examined. The first perspective, "Carrying Capacity and Rapid Population Growth: Definition, Cases, and Consequences" (Robert Muscat), explores the possible meanings of the idea of carrying capacity under developing country conditions, looks at historical and present-day cases of…

Studies of Health and Long-Term Care Expenditure Growth in Aging Populations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

C.A.M. de Meijer (Claudine)

2012-01-01

textabstractIn recent decades, elderly populations in most developed countries have increased considerably, both in absolute and relative terms. This growth of the elderly share of the population is mainly attributable to two demographic transitions: the (simultaneous) increase in longevity and

"Peer Review: Nonroad (NR) Updates to Population Growth, Compression Ignition (CI) Criteria, Toxic Emission Factors and Speciation Profiles"

Science.gov (United States)

This report focuses on the methodology for estimating growth in NR engine populations as used in the MOVES201X-NONROAD emission inventory model. MOVES NR growth rates start with base year engine populations and estimate growth in the populations of NR engines, while applying cons...

Growth and demographic patterns of marriages of foreign population in Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clara Cortina

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The dramatic growth of international immigration in Spain during the last decade has considerably increased the number of marriages with at least one foreign national. Between 1989 and 2004, the proportion of these marriages increased from 4% to12%, totalling 25.618 unions in 2004. However, marriage patterns of foreign nationals have attracted little attention among researcher spartly because of the small number of cases that were available until recently. Within this context, this paper examines the growth and demographic patterns of marriages of foreign populationin Spain, compared to those of only Spanish nationals, taking into account the age at marriage, type of union (religious or civil,first and later order of marriages, and degree of endogamy. We use microdata from the Spanish vital statistics on marriages (Movimiento Natural de la Población between 1989 and 2004. Results show that marriages of foreign population in Spain, particularly those that involve one Spanish partner, present some distinct characteristics, in particular associated with gender, in contrast to those marriages that only involve Spanish nationals.

The demographic consequences of mutualism: ants increase host-plant fruit production but not population growth

Science.gov (United States)

Kevin Ford; Joshua H. Ness; Judith L. Bronstein; William F. Morris

2015-01-01

The impact of mutualists on a partner’s demography depends on how they affect the partner’s multiple vital rates and how those vital rates, in turn, affect population growth. However, mutualism studies rarely measure effects on multiple vital rates or integrate them to assess the ultimate impact on population growth. We used vital rate data, population models and...

Population growth and United States politics in the 1970s.

Science.gov (United States)

Nash, A E

1973-01-01

The 2 themes of this century, increasing environmental fragility and increasing human demands on government, are underlined by the failure of government to effectively govern, and the complex technology and modern communication systems which further divide the developing nations from the developed ones. Population stabilization may help relieve the tension between increasing expectation from government and the fiscal bind in 3 ways: 1)a higher per capita income would increase per capita government revenue which would have a better chance of meeting citizen expectations, 2)a moderately redistributive effect on personal income might occur by decreasing unwanted fertility through the dynamics of economics and increasing the role of government in elevating living standards, and 3)with reduction of government expenditure per capita, the cost of providing any given level of service would decrease. The nuclear age has altered the concept of what constitutes national security. Rapid population growth in the developing countries is also significant, and the United States economy depends on overseas investment. A constructive foreign policy, as opposed to neoimperialism or isolationism, is recommended to help influence world population growth.

Effects of Ambient Temperature on Growth Performance, Blood Metabolites, and Immune Cell Populations in Korean Cattle Steers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, H J; Lee, I K; Piao, M Y; Gu, M J; Yun, C H; Kim, H J; Kim, K H; Baik, M

2016-03-01

Exposure to cold may affect growth performance in accordance with the metabolic and immunological activities of animals. We evaluated whether ambient temperature affects growth performance, blood metabolites, and immune cell populations in Korean cattle. Eighteen Korean cattle steers with a mean age of 10 months and a mean weight of 277 kg were used. All steers were fed a growing stage-concentrate diet at a rate of 1.5% of body weight and Timothy hay ad libitum for 8 weeks. Experimental period 1 (P1) was for four weeks from March 7 to April 3 and period 2 (P2) was four weeks from April 4 to May 1. Mean (8.7°C) and minimum (1.0°C) indoor ambient temperatures during P1 were lower (pambient temperature affects blood T cell populations. In conclusion, colder ambient temperature decreased growth and feed efficiency in Korean cattle steers. The higher circulating NEFA concentrations observed in March compared to April suggest that lipolysis may occur at colder ambient temperatures to generate heat and maintain body temperature, resulting in lower feed efficiency in March.

A stochastic population model to evaluate Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) population growth under alternative management scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Perry, Russell W.; Jones, Edward; Scoppettone, G. Gary

2015-07-14

The primary goal of this research project was to evaluate the response of Moapa dace (Moapa coriacea) to the potential effects of changes in the amount of available habitat due to human influences such as ground water pumping, barriers to movement, and extirpation of Moapa dace from the mainstem Muddy River. To understand how these factors affect Moapa dace populations and to provide a tool to guide recovery actions, we developed a stochastic model to simulate Moapa dace population dynamics. Specifically, we developed an individual based model (IBM) to incorporate the critical components that drive Moapa dace population dynamics. Our model is composed of several interlinked submodels that describe changes in Moapa dace habitat as translated into carrying capacity, the influence of carrying capacity on demographic rates of dace, and the consequent effect on equilibrium population sizes. The model is spatially explicit and represents the stream network as eight discrete stream segments. The model operates at a monthly time step to incorporate seasonally varying reproduction. Growth rates of individuals vary among stream segments, with growth rates increasing along a headwater to mainstem gradient. Movement and survival of individuals are driven by density-dependent relationships that are influenced by the carrying capacity of each stream segment.

Effects of probiotic supplement ( and on feed efficiency, growth performance, and microbial population of weaning rabbits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thanh Lam Phuoc

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Objective This study aimed to investigate the effects of single or/and double strains of probiotic supplement on feed efficiency, growth performance, and microbial population in distal gastrointestinal tract (GIT of weaning rabbits. Methods Sixty-four weaning (28 days old New Zealand White rabbits were randomly distributed into four groups with treatments including: basal diet without probiotic supplement (control or supplemented as follows: 1×106 cfu/g B. subtilis (BS group, 1×107 cfu/g L. acidophilus (LA group, or 0.5×106 cfu/g B. subtilis plus 0.5×107 cfu/g L. acidophilus (BL group. During the research, the male and female rabbits were fed separately. Body weight of the rabbits was recorded at 28, 42, and 70 d of age. Results There was an increase (p<0.05 in body weight gain for the LA group at 42 d. Rabbits fed BL responsed with a greater growth (p<0.05 and better feed conversion ratio (p<0.05 than those fed with no probiotic. Digestibility coefficients of dry matter, organic matter, crude protein, neutral detergent fiber, and gross energy were higher (p<0.05 in LA and BL groups than those in the control group. Male rabbits had higher (p<0.05 Bacilli spp. and Coliformis spp. in the ileum than female rabbits. Rabbits supplemented with BS had greater (p<0.05 numbers of bacilli in all intestinal segments than those receiving no probiotic, whereas intestinal Lactobacilli populations were greater (p<0.001 in the LA and BL diets compared to control. Average intestinal coliform populations were lowest (p<0.05 in the rabbits supplemented with LA as compared to those fed the control and BS. Conclusion Supplementation of L. acidophilus alone or in combination with B. subtilis at a half of dose could enhance number of gut beneficial bacteria populations, nutrient digestibility, cecal fermentation, feed efficiency, and growth performance, but rabbits receiving only B. subtilis alone were not different from the controls without probiotic.

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin [Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia amin.oroji@siswa.um.edu.my, mohd@um.edu.my (Malaysia); Yarahmadian, Shantia [Mathematics Department Mississippi State University, USA Syarahmadian@math.msstate.edu (United States)

2015-10-22

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

2015-01-01

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan

Population Growth and Sprawl on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, South Dakota

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, R. L.

2006-05-01

The most important impact on global land cover is human use and development. With the recent population growth occurring on the reservations in South Dakota, especially Pine Ridge Indian Reservation, the towns and agricultural areas of the reservation are undergoing a change. Although urban sprawl certainly is not a consideration on the reservations, the population explosion currently underway has seen a subsequent increase in rural sprawl. In this case, rural sprawl is defined as exponential population growth and geographic expansion of remote reservation communities. Using satellite imagery and software to render these images is a cost effective way to investigate this growth. Also, using remotely sensed data and a GIS (geographic information system) package can address different issues that concern people and communities in and around the Pine Ridge area. The objective of my project is to observe land use change on the Pine Ridge Indian reservation using Geographic Information Systems such as; ARCGis 9, ENVI, and Multispec, along with Landsat 4, 5, and 7 imagery over the past 20 years.

Nonlinear dynamics in a business-cycle model with logistic population growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brianzoni, Serena; Mammana, Cristiana; Michetti, Elisabetta

2009-01-01

We consider a discrete-time growth model of the Solow type where workers and shareholders have different but constant saving rates and the population growth dynamics is described by the logistic equation able to exhibit complicated dynamics. We show conditions for the resulting system having a compact global attractor and we describe its structure. We also perform a mainly numerical analysis using the critical lines method able to describe the strange attractor and the absorbing area, in order to show how cyclical or complex fluctuations may be produced in a business-cycle model. We study the dynamic behaviour of the model under different ranges of the main parameters, i.e. the elasticity of substitution between the two production factors and the one in the logistic equation (namely μ). We prove the existence of complex dynamics when the elasticity of substitution between production factors drops below one (so that capital income declines) or μ increases (so that the amplitude of movements in the population growth rate increases).

Fetal growth and risk of stillbirth: a population-based case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Bukowski, Radek; Hansen, Nellie I; Willinger, Marian; Reddy, Uma M; Parker, Corette B; Pinar, Halit; Silver, Robert M; Dudley, Donald J; Stoll, Barbara J; Saade, George R; Koch, Matthew A; Rowland Hogue, Carol J; Varner, Michael W; Conway, Deborah L; Coustan, Donald; Goldenberg, Robert L

2014-04-01

Stillbirth is strongly related to impaired fetal growth. However, the relationship between fetal growth and stillbirth is difficult to determine because of uncertainty in the timing of death and confounding characteristics affecting normal fetal growth. We conducted a population-based case-control study of all stillbirths and a representative sample of live births in 59 hospitals in five geographic areas in the US. Fetal growth abnormalities were categorized as small for gestational age (SGA) (90th percentile) at death (stillbirth) or delivery (live birth) using population, ultrasound, and individualized norms. Gestational age at death was determined using an algorithm that considered the time-of-death interval, postmortem examination, and reliability of the gestational age estimate. Data were weighted to account for the sampling design and differential participation rates in various subgroups. Among 527 singleton stillbirths and 1,821 singleton live births studied, stillbirth was associated with SGA based on population, ultrasound, and individualized norms (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI]: 3.0 [2.2 to 4.0]; 4.7 [3.7 to 5.9]; 4.6 [3.6 to 5.9], respectively). LGA was also associated with increased risk of stillbirth using ultrasound and individualized norms (OR [95% CI]: 3.5 [2.4 to 5.0]; 2.3 [1.7 to 3.1], respectively), but not population norms (OR [95% CI]: 0.6 [0.4 to 1.0]). The associations were stronger with more severe SGA and LGA (95th percentile). Analyses adjusted for stillbirth risk factors, subset analyses excluding potential confounders, and analyses in preterm and term pregnancies showed similar patterns of association. In this study 70% of cases and 63% of controls agreed to participate. Analysis weights accounted for differences between consenting and non-consenting women. Some of the characteristics used for individualized fetal growth estimates were missing and were replaced with reference values. However, a sensitivity analysis using individualized norms

Social Security Reform and Population Ageing in a Two-Sector Growth Model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Groezen, B.J.A.M.; Meijdam, A.C.; Verbon, H.A.A.

2002-01-01

This paper analyses the effects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy.The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector.Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector and

JOB DISCRIMINATION AGAINST WOMEN AND ENDOGENOUS POPULATION CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei-Bin ZHANG

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This study examines economic growth and population change with discrimination against women in the labor market within the analytical framework of Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The study models dynamic interactions between wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, children caring, and leisure, population change with endogenous birth and mortality rates with gender discrimination. The production technology and markets are built on Solow’s neoclassical growth model. The basic mechanisms for population changes in the Barro-Becker fertility choice model and the Haavelmo population model are integrated to model the population change. This study also takes account of discrimination against woman in the labor market. We synthesize these dynamic forces in a compact framework by applying Zhang’s utility function. The model properties are studied by simulation. We find equilibrium points and illustrate motion of the dynamic system. We also examine the effects of changes in the discrimination against woman, the propensity to save, woman’s propensity to pursue leisure activities, the propensity to have children, woman’s human capital and man’s emotional involvement in children caring.

Dynamics of urban population growth in Nigeria: The role of repeated migration.

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Adepoju, A

1976-02-01

The paper examines the direct contribution of migration to the growth of the urban population both in terms of its mobility and stability components with special reference to Western Nigeria. The basis of the paper is a survey of urban migration conducted by the author in 1971-1972; the findings are supplemented where necessary by the 1952-1953 and 1963 census figures. Migration is a major factor in the growth of the urban population. The direct contribution by migrants to such growth can be traced to the following groups: the initial streams of migrants, the follow-up migrants and the potentially mobile migrants attracted from the migrants' communities of origin to the towns. Repeated migration by some migrants, particularly the young, the educated and the white collar-workers, are also major factors in the urban population growth. Such repeated migrations are predominantly urban to urban or turnover moves. The high mobility rate among a group of migrants tends to conceal the relative stability among the migrant population as a whole. Repeated migrants usually stay between 3 and 5 years at each destination, before moving on. A substantial proportion of migrants, mainly farmers, the less educated and the old, are relatively stable in the survey towns (Ife and Oshogho). The urban residence ration indices also indicate an increase in the rate of immigration, mainly of young persons, to the towns. The youthful age structure, the age selectivity in migration and the marital status of the young migrants tend to exacerbate the masculinity in the form of unbalanced sex ratio prevailing in most urban centers. The urban population is unlikely to be stable. The tendency for old migrants of rural origin to return to their villages at the end of their migration career and for contemporary migrants to consist predominantly of youths, will for the next generation or 2 lead to a young and unstable urban population.

Comparative study of cocoa black ants temporal population distribution utilizing geospatial analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Adnan, N. A.; Bakar, S.; Mazlan, A. H.; Yusoff, Z. Mohd; Rasam, A. R. Abdul

2018-02-01

Cocoa plantation also subjected to diseases and pests infestation. Some pests not only reduced the yield but also inhibit the growth of trees. Therefore, the Malaysia Cocoa Board (MCB) has explored Cocoa Black Ants (CBA) as one of their biological control mechanism to reduce the pest infestation of the Cocoa Pod Borer (CPB). CPB is capable to cause damage to cocoa beans, and later on will reduce the quality of dried cocoa beans. This study tries to integrate the use of geospatial analysis in understanding population distribution pattern of CBA to enhance its capability in controlling CPB infestation. Two objectives of the study are i) to generate temporal CBA distribution of cocoa plantation for two different blocks, and ii) to compare visually the CBA population distribution pattern with the aid of geospatial technique. This study managed to find the CBA population pattern which indicated spatially modest amount of low pattern distribution in February of 2007 until reaching the highest levels of ant populations in September 2007 and decreasing by the end of the year in 2009 for two different blocks (i.e 10B and 18A). Therefore, the usage of GIS is important to explain the CBA pattern population in the mature cocoa field. This finding might to be used as an indicator to examine the optimum distribution of CBA, which needed as a biological control agent against the CPB in the future.

[Effect of the population density on growth and regeneration in the snail Achatina fulica].

Science.gov (United States)

Sidel'nikov, A P; Stepanov, I I

2000-01-01

In the laboratory, the growth rate of the giant African snail Achatina fulica, as estimated by the weight and shell length was shown to decrease when the population density increased from 10 to 60 snails/m2 of the total terrarium area for five months. In the second experiment, when the population density increased from 48 to 193 snails/m2, the growth rate had already decreased by six weeks. In the groups with a high population density the feeding behavior was weakened, expressed by a greater amount of nonconsumed food, according to visual observations, than in the groups with lower population densities. At the population density of 10 to 60 snails/m2, the proliferative activity in the course of the optic tentacle regeneration, as expressed by the mitotic index, did not differ reliably within five months. In the second experiment, the mitotic indices at the population densities of 96 and 193 snails/m2 within 1.5 months exceeded that of 48 snails/m2. Recommendations are given concerning the population density from the viewpoint of commercial growth of the snails. It was proposed that, based on the analysis of the mechanism underlying the inhibition of feeding behavior in populations with extra high densities, one may develop a new approach to the production of chemical agents to control land snails as agricultural pests.

Growth rates and variances of unexploited wolf populations in dynamic equilibria

Science.gov (United States)

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John

2015-01-01

Several states have begun harvesting gray wolves (Canis lupus), and these states and various European countries are closely monitoring their wolf populations. To provide appropriate perspective for determining unusual or extreme fluctuations in their managed wolf populations, we analyzed natural, long-term, wolf-population-density trajectories totaling 130 years of data from 3 areas: Isle Royale National Park in Lake Superior, Michigan, USA; the east-central Superior National Forest in northeastern Minnesota, USA; and Denali National Park, Alaska, USA. Ratios between minimum and maximum annual sizes for 2 mainland populations (n = 28 and 46 yr) varied from 2.5–2.8, whereas for Isle Royale (n = 56 yr), the ratio was 6.3. The interquartile range (25th percentile, 75th percentile) for annual growth rates, Nt+1/Nt, was (0.88, 1.14), (0.92, 1.11), and (0.86, 1.12) for Denali, Superior National Forest, and Isle Royale respectively. We fit a density-independent model and a Ricker model to each time series, and in both cases we considered the potential for observation error. Mean growth rates from the density-independent model were close to 0 for all 3 populations, with 95% credible intervals including 0. We view the estimated model parameters, including those describing annual variability or process variance, as providing useful summaries of the trajectories of these populations. The estimates of these natural wolf population parameters can serve as benchmarks for comparison with those of recovering wolf populations. Because our study populations were all from circumscribed areas, fluctuations in them represent fluctuations in densities (i.e., changes in numbers are not confounded by changes in occupied area as would be the case with populations expanding their range, as are wolf populations in many states).

Social security reform and population ageing in a two-sector growth model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groezen, Bas van; Meijdam, L.; Verbon, H.

2002-01-01

This paper analyses the e¤ects of reducing unfunded social security and population ageing on economic growth and welfare, both for a small open economy and for a closed economy. The economy consists of a service sector and a commodity sector. Productivity growth only occurs in the latter sector

Growth references

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buuren, S. van

2007-01-01

A growth reference describes the variation of an anthropometric measurement within a group of individuals. A reference is a tool for grouping and analyzing data and provides a common basis for comparing populations.1 A well known type of reference is the age-conditional growth diagram. The

Populational Growth Models Proportional to Beta Densities with Allee Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Aleixo, Sandra M.; Rocha, J. Leonel; Pestana, Dinis D.

2009-05-01

We consider populations growth models with Allee effect, proportional to beta densities with shape parameters p and 2, where the dynamical complexity is related with the Malthusian parameter r. For p>2, these models exhibit a population dynamics with natural Allee effect. However, in the case of 1

The Association between Natural Amenities, Rural Population Growth, and Long-Term Residents' Economic Well-Being

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Lori M; Boardman, Jason D.; Saint Onge, Jarron M.

2005-01-01

Population growth in rural areas characterized by high levels of natural amenities has recently received substantial research attention. A noted concern with amenity-driven rural population growth is its potential to raise local costs-of-living while yielding only low-wage service sector employment for long-term residents. The work presented here…

The Vatican & Population Growth Control: Why an American Confrontation?

Science.gov (United States)

Mumford, Stephen D.

1983-01-01

The Vatican, because of its position on population growth, threatens the security of all nations. Catholic countries with right-wing dictatorships cannot confront the Vatican on family planning and survive. U.S. Catholics must confront the Vatican on this issue. American lay Catholics must break the American church away from the Vatican control.…

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low- or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

Linking individual phenotype to density-dependent population growth: the influence of body size on the population dynamics of malaria vectors

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Russell, T.L.; Lwetoijera, D.W.; Knols, B.G.J.; Takken, W.; Killeen, G.F.; Ferguson, H.M.

2011-01-01

Understanding the endogenous factors that drive the population dynamics of malaria mosquitoes will facilitate more accurate predictions about vector control effectiveness and our ability to destabilize the growth of either low-or high-density insect populations. We assessed whether variation in

Comparative population structure of cavity-nesting sea ducks

Science.gov (United States)

Pearce, John M.; Eadie, John M.; Savard, Jean-Pierre L.; Christensen, Thomas K.; Berdeen, James; Taylor, Eric J.; Boyd, Sean; Einarsson, Árni

2014-01-01

A growing collection of mtDNA genetic information from waterfowl species across North America suggests that larger-bodied cavity-nesting species exhibit greater levels of population differentiation than smaller-bodied congeners. Although little is known about nest-cavity availability for these species, one hypothesis to explain differences in population structure is reduced dispersal tendency of larger-bodied cavity-nesting species due to limited abundance of large cavities. To investigate this hypothesis, we examined population structure of three cavity-nesting waterfowl species distributed across much of North America: Barrow's Goldeneye (Bucephala islandica), Common Goldeneye (B. clangula), and Bufflehead (B. albeola). We compared patterns of population structure using both variation in mtDNA control-region sequences and band-recovery data for the same species and geographic regions. Results were highly congruent between data types, showing structured population patterns for Barrow's and Common Goldeneye but not for Bufflehead. Consistent with our prediction, the smallest cavity-nesting species, the Bufflehead, exhibited the lowest level of population differentiation due to increased dispersal and gene flow. Results provide evidence for discrete Old and New World populations of Common Goldeneye and for differentiation of regional groups of both goldeneye species in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and the eastern coast of North America. Results presented here will aid management objectives that require an understanding of population delineation and migratory connectivity between breeding and wintering areas. Comparative studies such as this one highlight factors that may drive patterns of genetic diversity and population trends.

Anthropometric growth study of the ear in a Chinese population.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhao, Shichun; Li, Dianguo; Liu, Zhenzhong; Wang, Yibiao; Liu, Lei; Jiang, Duyin; Pan, Bo

2018-04-01

A large number of anthropometric studies of the auricle have been reported in different nations, but little data were available in the Chinese population. The aim of this study was to analyze growth changes in the ear by measuring the width and length of ears in a Chinese population. A total of 480 participants were enrolled and classified into 1-, 3-, 5-, 7-, 9-, 12-, 14-, and 18-year groups (half were boys and half were girls in each group). Ear length, ear width, body weight, and body length were measured and recorded; ear index was calculated according to ear length and ear width. The growth of auricle and differences between genders were analyzed. Growth of ear in relation to body height and weight and the degree of emphasis on the length and width of the auricle were also analyzed. Ear length and width increased with age. Ear length achieved its mature size in both 14-year-old males and females. Ear width reached its mature size in males at 7 years and in females at 5 years. Different trends of ear index were shown between males and females. People in this population paid more attention to the length than the width of the auricle. The data indicated that ear development followed increase in age. There were gender and ethnic difference in the development of ear. These results may have potential implications for the diagnosis of congenital malformations, syndromes, and planning of ear reconstruction surgery. Copyright © 2017 British Association of Plastic, Reconstructive and Aesthetic Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Detecting crop population growth using chlorophyll fluorescence imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Heng; Qian, Xiangjie; Zhang, Lan; Xu, Sailong; Li, Haifeng; Xia, Xiaojian; Dai, Liankui; Xu, Liang; Yu, Jingquan; Liu, Xu

2017-12-10

For both field and greenhouse crops, it is challenging to evaluate their growth information on a large area over a long time. In this work, we developed a chlorophyll fluorescence imaging-based system for crop population growth information detection. Modular design was used to make the system provide high-intensity uniform illumination. This system can perform modulated chlorophyll fluorescence induction kinetics measurement and chlorophyll fluorescence parameter imaging over a large area of up to 45  cm×34  cm. The system can provide different lighting intensity by modulating the duty cycle of its control signal. Results of continuous monitoring of cucumbers in nitrogen deficiency show the system can reduce the judge error of crop physiological status and improve monitoring efficiency. Meanwhile, the system is promising in high throughput application scenarios.

Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

2017-01-01

Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

Effects of growth curve plasticity on size-structured population dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Lai; Lin, Zhigui; Pedersen, Michael

2011-01-01

The physiological-structured population models assume that a fixed fraction of energy intake is utilized for individual growth and maintenance while the remaining for adult fertility. The assumption results in two concerns: energy loss for juveniles and a reproduction dilemma for adults. The dile...

Measuring populism: comparing two methods of content analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rooduijn, M.; Pauwels, T.

2011-01-01

The measurement of populism - particularly over time and space - has received only scarce attention. In this research note two different ways to measure populism are compared: a classical content analysis and a computer-based content analysis. An analysis of political parties in the United Kingdom,

The relationship between population ageing and the economic growth in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Brendan, Lo Rick; Sek, Siok Kun

2017-08-01

Asia has witnessed robust economic growth since the 1960s. Today, emerging markets in Asia have managed to maintain rapid growth even when the world's main economies suffer from debt and banking crises. However, declining total fertility rate, increasing life expectancy, continuous change of birth and death patterns, and increasing share of old age population in the age distribution in Asia exert significant pressure on its economies. This paper analyses the relationship between population ageing and economic growth using 2 different panels of countries; one Asian and another the from the oldest countries worldwide between 1970 and 2014. The analysis is based on the Auto Regression Distributed Lag models. The MG (Mean Group) and PMG (Pooled Mean Group) estimations are applied in this analysis. The Hausman Test is conducted to decide between the MG and PMG estimators. We find that ageing will negatively affect the economy in the long run. The growing number of youths will initially have a negative effect on the economy but would eventually lead to a positive growth in the future. The old age dependency ratio has yet to have affect the Asian economy but is expected eventually to impose a negative effect as seen in the oldest nations of the world.

Growth and physiological responses to varied environments among populations of Pinus ponderosa

Science.gov (United States)

Jianwei Zhang; Bert M. Cregg

2005-01-01

We investigated population responses in physiology, morphology, and growth of mature Pinus ponderosa trees to an environmental gradient across Nebraska, USA. Ten populations from western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming were grown in three 26-year-old provenance tests from the warmest and wettest site in the east (Plattsmouth) to the intermediate site in...

Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

Science.gov (United States)

Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

2003-01-01

Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

2017-04-01

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

Population growth, demographic change, and cultural landscapes.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodgate, G; Sage, C

1994-01-01

The inclusion of both ecological and socioeconomic components within landscapes makes possible the perception of the hierarchical character of landscape organization. A research approach is needed to conceptualize cultural landscapes as the product of interaction between society and nature. Richard Norgaard's 1984 paper on coevolutionary agricultural development attempts to meet this challenge. Coevolution is the interactive synthesis of natural and social mechanisms of change that characterize the relationship between social systems and ecosystems. The relationship between population, consumption, and environmental changes is complex. Currently industrialized countries present the biggest threat to global environmental resources. The issue of carrying capacity is the corollary of population and the environment. It is primarily the technological factor rather than population that needs to be controlled. The relationship between rich and poor countries is determined by superior economic power. An analysis of landscape change is made, tracing the coevolution of society and environment from the end of the feudal era and making comparisons with continental Europe. Over the years since 1945 the need to realize potential economies of scale has resulted in a wholesale loss of woodlands, hedgerows, and small ponds in the UK. In a global context the likely impacts of population growth and demographic change on landscapes will be influenced by such socioeconomic factors as technology and affluence; policies that ignore cause and effect; and the traditional tendency to treat the environment as a waste repository and a supply depot.

The relationship between population growth and poverty in Africa: a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The mainstream view from these debates and discussions is that rapid population growth in Africa has put pressure on the environment, leading to environmental degradation which translates into shortfall in food production and atrophied development. This view is as a result of ritualistic adherence to narrow ideological ...

Comparative phytochemical and growth inhibitory studies on the leaf ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Comparative phytochemical and growth inhibitory studies on the leaf and root bark extracts of securinega Virosa (roxb ex. Willd) baill ... The growth inhibitory tests were carried out between 1-30 mg/ in a period of 24-96 h while the phytochemical screening was carried out on the plant parts using standard methods. At 24 h ...

Project Mahathir: ‘Extraordinary’ Population Growth in Sabah

OpenAIRE

Frank, Sina

2006-01-01

The Malaysian state of Sabah faced an “extraordinary” population growth during the last decades. Illegal immigrants are said to have been issued Malaysian Identity Cards based on false statutory declarations. The so-called “Project Mahathir” changed Sabah’s ethnic make-up as well as the participation in elections. Politicians are said to have made use of “Phantom voters” in order to decide Sabah elections. Finally, with the help of a petition Sabah-based NGO’s demand an investi...

A Comparative Growth and Pigments Study of Nine Different ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Mostafa

2012-10-18

Oct 18, 2012 ... Comparative biodiversity and effect of different media on growth and ... of the food chain will accumulate astaxanthin in their ... and are very fast when compared to most other ..... Bad and the Recovery in an Assisted Migration.

Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

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Simone Vincenzi

2014-09-01

Full Text Available The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth and L∞ (asymptotic size. Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC, the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

Determining individual variation in growth and its implication for life-history and population processes using the empirical Bayes method.

Science.gov (United States)

Vincenzi, Simone; Mangel, Marc; Crivelli, Alain J; Munch, Stephan; Skaug, Hans J

2014-09-01

The differences in demographic and life-history processes between organisms living in the same population have important consequences for ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Modern statistical and computational methods allow the investigation of individual and shared (among homogeneous groups) determinants of the observed variation in growth. We use an Empirical Bayes approach to estimate individual and shared variation in somatic growth using a von Bertalanffy growth model with random effects. To illustrate the power and generality of the method, we consider two populations of marble trout Salmo marmoratus living in Slovenian streams, where individually tagged fish have been sampled for more than 15 years. We use year-of-birth cohort, population density during the first year of life, and individual random effects as potential predictors of the von Bertalanffy growth function's parameters k (rate of growth) and L∞ (asymptotic size). Our results showed that size ranks were largely maintained throughout marble trout lifetime in both populations. According to the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the best models showed different growth patterns for year-of-birth cohorts as well as the existence of substantial individual variation in growth trajectories after accounting for the cohort effect. For both populations, models including density during the first year of life showed that growth tended to decrease with increasing population density early in life. Model validation showed that predictions of individual growth trajectories using the random-effects model were more accurate than predictions based on mean size-at-age of fish.

Optimal fetal growth for the Caucasian singleton and assessment of appropriateness of fetal growth: an analysis of a total population perinatal database

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Lawrence David M

2005-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The appropriateness of an individual's intra uterine growth is now considered an important determinant of both short and long term outcomes, yet currently used measures have several shortcomings. This study demonstrates a method of assessing appropriateness of intrauterine growth based on the estimation of each individual's optimal newborn dimensions from routinely available perinatal data. Appropriateness of growth can then be inferred from the ratio of the value of the observed dimension to that of the optimal dimension. Methods Fractional polynomial regression models including terms for non-pathological determinants of fetal size (gestational duration, fetal gender and maternal height, age and parity were used to predict birth weight, birth length and head circumference from a population without any major risk factors for sub-optimal intra-uterine growth. This population was selected from a total population of all singleton, Caucasian births in Western Australia 1998–2002. Births were excluded if the pregnancy was exposed to factors known to influence fetal growth pathologically. The values predicted by these models were treated as the optimal values, given infant gender, gestational age, maternal height, parity, and age. Results The selected sample (N = 62,746 comprised 60.5% of the total Caucasian singleton birth cohort. Equations are presented that predict optimal birth weight, birth length and head circumference given gestational duration, fetal gender, maternal height, age and parity. The best fitting models explained 40.5% of variance for birth weight, 32.2% for birth length, and 25.2% for head circumference at birth. Conclusion Proportion of optimal birth weight (length or head circumference provides a method of assessing appropriateness of intrauterine growth that is less dependent on the health of the reference population or the quality of their morphometric data than is percentile position on a birth weight

An Assessment of Factors Affecting Population Growth of the Mountain Plover

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Stephen J. Dinsmore

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Effective conservation measures should target the most sensitive life history attributes of a species, assuming they are responsive to potential management actions. The Mountain Plover (Charadrius montanus is a species of conservation concern with a patchy breeding distribution in western North America. Plovers prefer areas with short vegetation, bare ground, and disturbance for nesting. Current management tools, including grazing and burning, have been used to attract plovers and enhance nesting success. We used a stage-specific matrix model to study the influence of vital rates, e.g., juvenile and adult annual survival, on population growth rate in the Mountain Plover at two breeding sites in Colorado, South Park and Eastern Colorado, and one breeding site in Montana, USA. Our analysis was motivated by a need to 1 better understand the relationship between demographic rates and population growth rate, 2 assess current management tools for the plover by exploring their effect on population growth rate, and 3 identify areas of the plover's population biology where additional demographic work is needed. Stochastic population growth rate was most influenced by adult survival, especially in Montana and South Park, Colorado (elasticities > 0.60, and was least influenced by first-year reproduction (all elasticities < 0.20. The modeled relationships between lambda and each demographic rate were generally weak (r2 < 0.30 with the exception of number of eggs hatched per nest in Eastern Colorado (r2 = 0.63, chick survival in South Park (r2 = 0.40 and Montana (r2 = 0.38, and adult survival in Montana (r2 = 0.36. We examined the predicted increase in lambda that would result from increasing each demographic rate from its mean to the maximum value observed in our simulations. Chick and adult survival showed the greatest increase in lambda while eggs hatched per nest produced the smallest increase. Our results suggest that future conservation efforts should

Impact of Rainfall, Land-Cover and Population Growth on Groundwater - A Case Study From Karnataka State, India

Science.gov (United States)

Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.

2015-12-01

Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.

Teaching Population Growth Using Cultures of Vinegar Eels, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda)

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Robert L.

2005-01-01

A simple laboratory exercise is presented that follows the population growth of the common vinegar eel, "Turbatrix aceti" (Nematoda), in a microcosm using a simple culture medium. It lends itself to an exercise in a single semester course. (Contains 4 figures.)

Calculating second derivatives of population growth rates for ecology and evolution

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Shyu, E.; Caswell, H.

2014-01-01

Second derivatives of the population growth rate measure the curvature of its response to demographic, physiological or environmental parameters. The second derivatives quantify the response of sensitivity results to perturbations, provide a classification of types of selection and provide one way

Effect of Cadmium on the population growth of the marine diatom Chaetoceros gracilis Schutt

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Giovana Vera

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Phytoplankton constitutes the base of the trophic webs in the marine environment, so it is important to know the possible effects of pollutants on the algal populations. In the present paper the effect of cadmium on the population growth of the diatom Chaetoceros gracilis was assessed. The microalgae were cultured in the a modified “f/2” Guillard medium, and were exposed to different concentrations of cadmium between 50 and 100000 µg.–1, which produced an inhibitory effect from 20% to 99% on the population growth of Chaetoceros gracilis. Based on the dose (cadmium-response (inhibition relationship, a mean effective concentration (EC50% equal to 591 µg.L–1 of cadmium was obtained.

India in the Twenty-first Century: The Challenge of Population Growth. Fulbright-Hays Summer Seminars Abroad, 1997 (India).

Science.gov (United States)

La Fleur, Mary Ann

This paper contains a course outline for a five-hour graduate class focusing on the issue of population in India. Students examine contributing factors to population growth, along with studying characteristics of, and efforts to, control population growth. The significance of ethnic diversity in India also is addressed. Group discussion and group…

A diffusion-based approach to stochastic individual growth and energy budget, with consequences to life-history optimization and population dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Filin, I

2009-06-01

Using diffusion processes, I model stochastic individual growth, given exogenous hazards and starvation risk. By maximizing survival to final size, optimal life histories (e.g. switching size for habitat/dietary shift) are determined by two ratios: mean growth rate over growth variance (diffusion coefficient) and mortality rate over mean growth rate; all are size dependent. For example, switching size decreases with either ratio, if both are positive. I provide examples and compare with previous work on risk-sensitive foraging and the energy-predation trade-off. I then decompose individual size into reversibly and irreversibly growing components, e.g. reserves and structure. I provide a general expression for optimal structural growth, when reserves grow stochastically. I conclude that increased growth variance of reserves delays structural growth (raises threshold size for its commencement) but may eventually lead to larger structures. The effect depends on whether the structural trait is related to foraging or defence. Implications for population dynamics are discussed.

Population structure, growth and production of a recent brachiopod from the Chilean fjord region

KAUST Repository

Baumgarten, Sebastian; Laudien, Jü rgen; Jantzen, Carin; Hä ussermann, Verena; Fö rsterra, Gü nter

2013-01-01

-57% of that of A. atra in the respective fjords). The high shell growth rate of M. venosa, together with its high overall growth performance may explain the locally high population density of this brachiopod in Comau Fjord. However, the production per biomass

Mating system, population growth, and management scenario for Kalanchoe pinnata in an invaded seasonally dry tropical forest.

Science.gov (United States)

González de León, Salvador; Herrera, Ileana; Guevara, Roger

2016-07-01

Ecological invasions are a major issue worldwide, where successful invasion depends on traits that facilitate dispersion, establishment, and population growth. The nonnative succulent plant Kalanchoe pinnata, reported as invasive in some countries, is widespread in remnants of seasonally dry tropical forest on a volcanic outcrop with high conservation value in east-central Mexico where we assessed its mating system and demographic growth and identified management strategies. To understand its local mating system, we conducted hand-pollination treatments, germination, and survival experiments. Based on the experimental data, we constructed a life-stage population matrix, identified the key traits for population growth, weighted the contributions of vegetative and sexual reproduction, and evaluated management scenarios. Hand-pollination treatments had slight effects on fruit and seed setting, as well as on germination. With natural pollination treatment, the successful germination of seeds from only 2/39 fruit suggests occasional effective natural cross-pollination. The ratios of the metrics for self- and cross-pollinated flowers suggest that K. pinnata is partially self-compatible. Most of the pollinated flowers developed into fruit, but the seed germination and seedling survival rates were low. Thus, vegetative propagation and juvenile survival are the main drivers of population growth. Simulations of a virtual K. pinnata population suggest that an intense and sustained weeding campaign will reduce the population within at least 10 years. Synthesis and applications. The study population is partially self-compatible, but sexual reproduction by K. pinnata is limited at the study site, and population growth is supported by vegetative propagation and juvenile survival. Demographic modeling provides key insights and realistic forecasts on invasion process and therefore is useful to design management strategies.

Endogenous Population Dynamics and Economic Growth with Free Trade between Countries

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Wei-Bin Zhang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available This paper builds a model to deal with dynamic interdependence between different countries' birth rates, mortality rates, populations, wealth accumulation, and time distributions between working, leisure and children caring. The model shows the role of human capital, technological and preference changes on national differences in birth rates, mortality rates, time distributions, population change, and wealth accumulation. The economic mechanisms of wealth accumulation, production and trade are based the Solow growth model and the Oniki-Uzawa trade model. We use the utility function proposed by Zhang to describe the behavior of households. We model national and gender differences in human capital, propensity to have children, propensity to use leisure time, and children caring efficiency. We describe the dynamics of global economic growth, trade patterns, national differences in wealth, income, birth rates, mortality rates, and populations with differential equations. We simulate the model to show the motion of the system and identify the existence of equilibrium point. We also examine the effects of changes in the propensity to have children, the propensity to save, woman's propensity to use leisure, woman's human capital, and woman's emotional involvement in children caring on the dynamics of the global and national economies.

The effects of dietary protein levels on the population growth, performance, and physiology of honey bee workers during early spring.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Benle; Wu, Zaifu; Xu, Baohua

2014-01-01

This study was conducted to investigate the effects of dietary protein levels on honey bee colonies, specifically the population growth, physiology, and longevity of honey bee workers during early spring. Diets containing four different levels of crude protein (25.0, 29.5, 34.0, or 38.5%) and pure pollen (control) were evaluated. Twenty-five colonies of honey bees with sister queens were used in the study. We compared the effects of the different bee diets by measuring population growth, emergent worker weight, midgut proteolytic enzyme activity, hypopharyngeal gland development, and survival. After 48 d, the cumulative number of workers produced by the colonies ranged from 22,420 to 29,519, providing a significant fit to a quadratic equation that predicts the maximum population growth when the diet contains 31.7% crude protein. Significantly greater emergent worker weight, midgut proteolytic enzyme activity, hypopharyngeal gland acini, and survival were observed in the colonies that were fed diets containing 34.0% crude protein compared with the other crude protein levels. Although higher emergent worker weight and survival were observed in the colonies that were fed the control diet, there were no significant differences between the control colonies and the colonies that were fed 34.0% crude protein. Based on these results, we concluded that a dietary crude protein content of 29.5-34.0% is recommended to maximize the reproduction rate of honey bee colonies in early spring. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Fifty years of population growth and absorption of labor in Brazil: from 1950 to 2000.

Science.gov (United States)

Paiva, P D

1997-01-01

For a long time, the Brazilian population has grown at a relatively high rate, and only recently has the process of demographic transition intensified in the country. While the associated decline in fertility could result in a future decline in the size of the working-age population, it could also lead to an increase in female participation in the labor market. Brazil's economy is performing well, with gross domestic product (GDP) growing at an average annual rate of 7.1% during 1947-80. Marked growth in industrial employment opportunities has accompanied this growth in GDP. The size of the informal sector, however, has not decreased in similar proportion, while the 1981-83 economic crisis caused urban employment levels to drop, especially in industry and construction. Moreover, the level of rural-urban migration has increased and the agricultural employment index has fallen. The author evaluates past growth trends of the Economically Active Population (EAP) and of employment in Brazil, and assesses the potential growth of the labor force until the year 2000.

Growth curves of preschool children in the northeast of iran: a population based study using quantile regression approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Payande, Abolfazl; Tabesh, Hamed; Shakeri, Mohammad Taghi; Saki, Azadeh; Safarian, Mohammad

2013-01-14

Growth charts are widely used to assess children's growth status and can provide a trajectory of growth during early important months of life. The objectives of this study are going to construct growth charts and normal values of weight-for-age for children aged 0 to 5 years using a powerful and applicable methodology. The results compare with the World Health Organization (WHO) references and semi-parametric LMS method of Cole and Green. A total of 70737 apparently healthy boys and girls aged 0 to 5 years were recruited in July 2004 for 20 days from those attending community clinics for routine health checks as a part of a national survey. Anthropometric measurements were done by trained health staff using WHO methodology. The nonparametric quantile regression method obtained by local constant kernel estimation of conditional quantiles curves using for estimation of curves and normal values. The weight-for-age growth curves for boys and girls aged from 0 to 5 years were derived utilizing a population of children living in the northeast of Iran. The results were similar to the ones obtained by the semi-parametric LMS method in the same data. Among all age groups from 0 to 5 years, the median values of children's weight living in the northeast of Iran were lower than the corresponding values in WHO reference data. The weight curves of boys were higher than those of girls in all age groups. The differences between growth patterns of children living in the northeast of Iran versus international ones necessitate using local and regional growth charts. International normal values may not properly recognize the populations at risk for growth problems in Iranian children. Quantile regression (QR) as a flexible method which doesn't require restricted assumptions, proposed for estimation reference curves and normal values.

Growth Indicators of a 48-Clone Sugar Cane Population (Saccharum spp. with Forage Potential

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Yoslen Fernández Gálvez

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to determine growth indicators in a 48-clone sugar cane population, with promising phenotypical features for forage production. The following indicators were assessed: leaf area (A, leaf area index (LA1; leaf area ratio (LAR; specific leaf area (SLA; leaf weight ratio (LWR; crop growth rate (CGR; net assimilation rate (NAR; relative growth rate in weight (RGR; biomass production speed (G; leaf area duration (LAD; and biomass duration (Z, monthly (187 - 370 days. The minimum, the mean, the maximum values, and the population variance were determined for all cutting ages and the variables assessed. The results achieved have provided quantitative values that can be used as reference for selection and assessment of forage genotypes for ruminant nutrition.

Uropathogenic Escherichia coli Express Type 1 Fimbriae Only in Surface Adherent Populations Under Physiological Growth Conditions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stærk, Kristian; Kolmos, Hans Jørn; Khandige, Surabhi

2016-01-01

were correlated with the ability to adhere to and invade cultured human bladder cells. RESULTS:  Although inactive during planktonic growth in urine, T1F expression occurs when UPEC settles on and infects bladder epithelial cells or colonizes catheters. As a result, UPEC in these sessile populations...... with increased expression during surface growth adaptation and infection of uroepithelial cells. This leads to separation of UPEC into low-expression planktonic populations and high-expression sessile populations....... enhances bladder cell adhesion and invasion potential. Only T1F-negative UPEC are subsequently released to the urine, thus limiting T1F expression to surface-associated UPEC alone. CONCLUSION:  Our results demonstrate that T1F expression is strictly regulated under physiological growth conditions...

Is There Hidden Potential for Rural Population Growth in Sweden?

Science.gov (United States)

Niedomysl, Thomas; Amcoff, Jan

2011-01-01

Rural depopulation is a concern in many countries, and various policy initiatives have been taken to combat such trends. This article examines whether hidden potential for rural population growth can be found in Sweden. If such potential exists, it implies that the development prospects for many rural areas are not as unpromising as they may seem…

Population growth in a wild bird is buffered against phenological mismatch

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Reed, T.; Grotan, V.; Jenouvrier, S.; Saether, B.E.; Visser, M.E.

2013-01-01

road-scale environmental changes are altering patterns of natural selection in the wild, but few empirical studies have quantified the demographic cost of sustained directional selection in response to these changes. We tested whether population growth in a wild bird is negatively affected by

Generation time, net reproductive rate, and growth in stage-age-structured populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Steiner, Uli; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Coulson, Tim

2014-01-01

examples to show how reproductive timing Tc and level R0 are shaped by stage dynamics (individual trait changes), selection on the trait, and parent-offspring phenotypic correlation. We also show how population structure can affect dispersion in reproduction among ages and stages. These macroscopic...... to age-structured populations. Here we generalize this result to populations structured by stage and age by providing a new, unique measure of reproductive timing (Tc) that, along with net reproductive rate (R0), has a direct mathematical relationship to and approximates growth rate (r). We use simple...

Nonylphenol stimulates fecundity but not population growth rate (λ) of Folsomia candida

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Widarto, T. H.; Krogh, P. H.; Forbes, V. E.

2007-01-01

of NP on these traits did not result in a statistically significant increase in population growth rate (λ). Decomposition analysis indicated that fecundity was the main contributor to the (non-significant) changes observed in λ However, since the elasticity of fecundity was very low, large changes...... at the population level and that λ is an appropriate endpoint for ecotoxicological studies. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved...

Development and population growth of Hydra viridissima Pallas, 1766 (Cnidaria, Hydrozoa in the laboratory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

FC. Massaro

Full Text Available Hydras, the most representative freshwater Cnidaria, are of common occurrence in bodies of water in every continent except Antarctica. This study was planned with the aim of maintaining a population of Hydra viridissima in laboratory culture to enable the determination of the individual and population growth-rates of this species, as well as its population doubling time and generation time, with a view to employing these common animals as test-organisms in ecotoxicological assays. The organisms were maintained in reconstituted water at 20 ± 2 °C, illuminated at 800 lux with a photoperiod of 12 hours light: 12 hours dark, and were fed on neonates of the cladoceran Ceriodaphnia silvestrii (3 or 4 neonates per hydra, 3 times a week. The individual growth-rate (k of the species was 0.43, the maximum length of the column 2.53 mm and the generation time 6.6 ± 1.5 days on average. The hydra population showed an intrinsic growth-rate (r of 0.0468, according to the fitted curve, and a doubling time of 14.8 ± 2.63 days. Hydra viridissima is easy to grow in the laboratory and performs well in the conditions used in this study. It is thus a promising candidate test-organism for ecotoxicological studies.

Variations in growth, survival and carbon isotope composition (delta(13)C) among Pinus pinaster populations of different geographic origins.

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Correia, Isabel; Almeida, Maria Helena; Aguiar, Alexandre; Alía, Ricardo; David, Teresa Soares; Pereira, João Santos

2008-10-01

To evaluate differences in growth and adaptability of maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Ait.), we studied growth, polycyclism, needle tissue carbon isotope composition (delta(13)C) as an estimate of water-use efficiency (WUE) and survival of seven populations at 10 years of age growing in a performance trial at a provenance test site in Escaroupim, Portugal. Six populations were from relatively high rainfall sites in Portugal and southwestern France (Atlantic group), and one population was from a more arid Mediterranean site in Spain. There were significant differences between some populations in total height, diameter at breast height, delta(13)C of bulk needle tissue, polycyclism and survival. A population from central Portugal (Leiria, on the Atlantic coast) was the tallest and had the lowest delta(13)C. Overall, the variation in delta(13)C was better explained by the mean minimum temperatures of the coldest month than by annual precipitation at the place of origin. Analyses of the relationships between delta(13)C and growth or survival revealed a distinct pattern for the Mediterranean population, with low delta(13)C (and WUE) associated with the lowest growth potential and reduced survival. There were significant negative correlations between delta(13)C and height or survival in the Atlantic group. Variation in polycyclism was correlated with annual precipitation at the place of origin. Some Atlantic populations maintained a high growth potential while experiencing moderate water stress. A detailed knowledge of the relationships between growth, survival and delta(13)C in contrasting environments will enhance our ability to select populations for forestry or conservation.

Growth Patterns in the Irish Pyridoxine Nonresponsive Homocystinuria Population and the Influence of Metabolic Control and Protein Intake

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Orla Purcell

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A low methionine diet is the mainstay of treatment for pyridoxine nonresponsive homocystinuria (HCU. There are various guidelines for recommended protein intakes for HCU and clinical practice varies. Poor growth has been associated with low cystine levels. This retrospective review of 48 Irish pyridoxine nonresponsive HCU patients assessed weight, height, body mass index (BMI, protein intake, and metabolic control up to 18 years at nine set time points. Patients diagnosed through newborn screening (NBS were compared to late diagnosed (LD patients. At 18 years the LD group (n=12, mean age at diagnosis 5.09 years were heavier (estimated effect +4.97 Kg, P=0.0058 and taller (estimated effect +7.97 cm P=0.0204 than the NBS group (n=36. There was no difference in growth rate between the groups after 10 years of age. The HCU population were heavier and taller than the general population by one standard deviation with no difference in BMI. There was no association between intermittently low cystine levels and height. Three protein intake guidelines were compared; there was no difference in adult height between those who met the lowest of the guidelines (Genetic Metabolic Dietitians International and those with a higher protein intake.

Growth Patterns in the Irish Pyridoxine Nonresponsive Homocystinuria Population and the Influence of Metabolic Control and Protein Intake.

Science.gov (United States)

Purcell, Orla; Coughlan, Aoife; Grant, Tim; McNulty, Jenny; Clark, Anne; Deverell, Deirdre; Mayne, Philip; Hughes, Joanne; Monavari, Ahmad; Knerr, Ina; Crushell, Ellen

2017-01-01

A low methionine diet is the mainstay of treatment for pyridoxine nonresponsive homocystinuria (HCU). There are various guidelines for recommended protein intakes for HCU and clinical practice varies. Poor growth has been associated with low cystine levels. This retrospective review of 48 Irish pyridoxine nonresponsive HCU patients assessed weight, height, body mass index (BMI), protein intake, and metabolic control up to 18 years at nine set time points. Patients diagnosed through newborn screening (NBS) were compared to late diagnosed (LD) patients. At 18 years the LD group ( n = 12, mean age at diagnosis 5.09 years) were heavier (estimated effect +4.97 Kg, P = 0.0058) and taller (estimated effect +7.97 cm P = 0.0204) than the NBS group ( n = 36). There was no difference in growth rate between the groups after 10 years of age. The HCU population were heavier and taller than the general population by one standard deviation with no difference in BMI. There was no association between intermittently low cystine levels and height. Three protein intake guidelines were compared; there was no difference in adult height between those who met the lowest of the guidelines (Genetic Metabolic Dietitians International) and those with a higher protein intake.

Fetal growth and psychiatric and socioeconomic problems: population-based sibling comparison.

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Class, Quetzal A; Rickert, Martin E; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; D'Onofrio, Brian M

2014-11-01

It is unclear whether associations between fetal growth and psychiatric and socioeconomic problems are consistent with causal mechanisms. To estimate the extent to which associations are a result of unmeasured confounding factors using a sibling-comparison approach. We predicted outcomes from continuously measured birth weight in a Swedish population cohort (n = 3 291 773), while controlling for measured and unmeasured confounding. In the population, lower birth weight (⩽ 2500 g) increased the risk of all outcomes. Sibling-comparison models indicated that lower birth weight independently predicted increased risk for autism spectrum disorder (hazard ratio for low birth weight = 2.44, 95% CI 1.99-2.97) and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder. Although attenuated, associations remained for psychotic or bipolar disorder and educational problems. Associations with suicide attempt, substance use problems and social welfare receipt, however, were fully attenuated in sibling comparisons. Results suggest that fetal growth, and factors that influence it, contribute to psychiatric and socioeconomic problems. Royal College of Psychiatrists.

Trends in population growth in China's towns during the eighties, and town population in-migration and its decisive factors: a historic convergence of two types of demographic change.

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Wei, J

1990-01-01

Relying on socioeconomic and population statistics, as well as population censuses, the author examines the growth of China's towns in the 1980s due to in-migration, and considers the economic causes and impact of the growth of towns. Prior to 1984, China's urbanization had been slow and uneven. But in the 4 years from 1984-87, China's urban population grew 3.8 times faster than the period before 1984. and unlike the previous pattern of urbanization, slightly over half of the urban growth occurred in small cities and towns. The rapid growth of towns was due to an unprecedented level of in-migration into towns from agricultural villages. This population transformed itself into a nonagricultural population. The author attributes the increase in urbanization and its changing patterns to a historic convergence: the shift in industry for the agricultural population and a regional shift for the village population--realized through a form of village-to-town population migration. The author goes on to examine the development of small-town enterprises, facilitated after the rural reform of 1984. The author notes that since that year, small-town industries have flourished, a development that has had a number of beneficial effects on both the provincial areas and the nation as a whole. Finally, the author considers the factors that have fueled town population in-migration: 1) in most provinces, higher incomes in towns have attracted people from the villages; and 2) in provinces with little discrepancy in income between town and village, a combination of the regions' relative isolation and government policy preventing migration to cities have spurred the growth of towns.

Comparative growth models of big-scale sand smelt (Atherina boyeri Risso, 1810 sampled from Hirfanll Dam Lake, Klrsehir, Ankara, Turkey

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S. Benzer

2017-06-01

Full Text Available In this current publication the growth characteristics of big-scale sand smelt data were compared for population dynamics within artificial neural networks and length-weight relationships models. This study aims to describe the optimal decision of the growth model of big-scale sand smelt by artificial neural networks and length-weight relationships models at Hirfanll Dam Lake, Klrsehir, Turkey. There were a total of 1449 samples collected from Hirfanll Dam Lake between May 2015 and May 2016. Both model results were compared with each other and the results were also evaluated with MAPE (mean absolute percentage error, MSE (mean squared error and r2 (coefficient correlation data as a performance criterion. The results of the current study show that artificial neural networks is a superior estimation tool compared to length-weight relationships models of big-scale sand smelt in Hirfanll Dam Lake.

An application of the variable-r method to subpopulation growth rates in a 19th century agricultural population

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Corey Sparks

2009-07-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an analysis of the differential growth rates of the farming and non-farming segments of a rural Scottish community during the 19th and early 20th centuries using the variable-r method allowing for net migration. Using this method, I find that the farming population of Orkney, Scotland, showed less variability in their reproduction and growth rates than the non-farming population during a period of net population decline. I conclude by suggesting that the variable-r method can be used in general cases where the relative growth of subpopulations or subpopulation reproduction is of interest.

Rapid growth and genetic diversity retention in an isolated reintroduced black bear population in the central appalachians

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Murphy, Sean M.; Cox, John J.; Clark, Joseph D.; Augustine, Benjamin J.; Hast, John T.; Gibbs, Dan; Strunk, Michael; Dobey, Steven

2015-01-01

Animal reintroductions are important tools of wildlife management to restore species to their historical range, and they can also create unique opportunities to study population dynamics and genetics from founder events. We used non-invasive hair sampling in a systematic, closed-population capture-mark-recapture (CMR) study design at the Big South Fork (BSF) area in Kentucky during 2010 and Tennessee during 2012 to estimate the demographic and genetic characteristics of the black bear (Ursus americanus) population that resulted from a reintroduced founding population of 18 bears in 1998. We estimated 38 (95% CI: 31–66) and 190 (95% CI: 170–219) bears on the Kentucky and Tennessee study areas, respectively. Based on the Tennessee abundance estimate alone, the mean annual growth rate was 18.3% (95% CI: 17.4–19.5%) from 1998 to 2012. We also compared the genetic characteristics of bears sampled during 2010–2012 to bears in the population during 2000–2002, 2–4 years following reintroduction, and to the source population. We found that the level of genetic diversity since reintroduction as indicated by expected heterozygosity (HE) remained relatively constant (HE(source, 2004) = 0.763, HE(BSF, 2000–2002) = 0.729, HE(BSF, 2010–2012) = 0.712) and the effective number of breeders (NB) remained low but had increased since reintroduction in the absence of sufficient immigration (NB(BSF, 2000–2002) = 12, NB(BSF, 2010–2012)  = 35). This bear population appears to be genetically isolated, but contrary to our expectations, we did not find evidence of genetic diversity loss or other deleterious genetic effects typically observed from small founder groups. We attribute that to high initial genetic diversity in the founder group combined with overlapping generations and rapid population growth. Although the population remains relatively small, the reintroduction using a small founder group appears to be demographically and genetically

Do social grants contribute to the jobless population growth in the former South African homelands?

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Geyer, H

2018-05-01

Full Text Available migration. A possible reason could be the high level of dependency on social grants in the former homelands. The article analyses population growth rates, economic growth rates and the ratio of social grant recipients within former homeland settlements...

Consolidating Data of Global Urban Populations: a Comparative Approach

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Blankespoor, B.; Khan, A.; Selod, H.

2017-12-01

Global data on city populations are essential for the study of urbanization, city growth and the spatial distribution of human settlements. Such data are either gathered by combining official estimates of urban populations from across countries or extracted from gridded population models that combine these estimates with geospatial data. These data sources provide varying estimates of urban populations and each approach has its advantages and limitations. In particular, official figures suffer from a lack of consistency in defining urban units (across both space and time) and often provide data for jurisdictions rather than the functionally meaningful urban area. On the other hand, gridded population models require a user-imposed definition to identify urban areas and are constrained by the modelling techniques and input data employed. To address these drawbacks, we combine these approaches by consolidating information from three established sources: (i) the Citypopulation.de (Brinkhoff, 2016); (ii) the World Urban Prospects data (United Nations, 2014); and (iii) the Global Human Settlements population grid (GHS-POP) (EC - JRC, 2015). We create urban footprints with GHS-POP and spatially merge georeferenced city points from both UN WUP and Citypopulation.de with these urban footprints to identify city points that belong to a single agglomeration. We create a consolidated dataset by combining population data from the UN WUP and Citypopulation.de. The flexible framework outlined can incorporate information from alternative inputs to identify urban clusters e.g. by using night-time lights, built-up area or alternative gridded population models (e.g WorldPop or Landscan) and the parameters employed (e.g. density thresholds for urban footprints) may also be adjusted, e.g., as a function of city-specific characteristics. Our consolidated dataset provides a wider and more accurate coverage of city populations to support studies of urbanization. We apply the data to re

Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

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George Wittemyer

Full Text Available Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing. These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults, annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years and females (21.8 years. Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly

Comparative demography of an at-risk African elephant population.

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Wittemyer, George; Daballen, David; Douglas-Hamilton, Iain

2013-01-01

Knowledge of population processes across various ecological and management settings offers important insights for species conservation and life history. In regard to its ecological role, charisma and threats from human impacts, African elephants are of high conservation concern and, as a result, are the focus of numerous studies across various contexts. Here, demographic data from an individually based study of 934 African elephants in Samburu, Kenya were summarized, providing detailed inspection of the population processes experienced by the population over a fourteen year period (including the repercussions of recent increases in illegal killing). These data were compared with those from populations inhabiting a spectrum of xeric to mesic ecosystems with variable human impacts. In relation to variability in climate and human impacts (causing up to 50% of recorded deaths among adults), annual mortality in Samburu fluctuated between 1 and 14% and, unrelatedly, natality between 2 and 14% driving annual population increases and decreases. Survivorship in Samburu was significantly lower than other populations with age-specific data even during periods of low illegal killing by humans, resulting in relatively low life expectancy of males (18.9 years) and females (21.8 years). Fecundity (primiparous age and inter-calf interval) were similar to those reported in other human impacted or recovering populations, and significantly greater than that of comparable stable populations. This suggests reproductive effort of African savanna elephants increases in relation to increased mortality (and resulting ecological ramifications) as predicted by life history theory. Further comparison across populations indicated that elongated inter-calf intervals and older ages of reproductive onset were related to age structure and density, and likely influenced by ecological conditions. This study provides detailed empirical data on elephant population dynamics strongly influenced by human

Periodic matrix population models: growth rate, basic reproduction number, and entropy.

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Bacaër, Nicolas

2009-10-01

This article considers three different aspects of periodic matrix population models. First, a formula for the sensitivity analysis of the growth rate lambda is obtained that is simpler than the one obtained by Caswell and Trevisan. Secondly, the formula for the basic reproduction number R0 in a constant environment is generalized to the case of a periodic environment. Some inequalities between lambda and R0 proved by Cushing and Zhou are also generalized to the periodic case. Finally, we add some remarks on Demetrius' notion of evolutionary entropy H and its relationship to the growth rate lambda in the periodic case.

POPULATION GROWTH AND PREFERENCE CHANGE IN A GENERALIZED SOLOW GROWTH MODEL WITH GENDER TIME DISTRIBUTIONS

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Wei-Bin Zhang

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The study builds a model of dynamic interactions between the birth rate, the mortality rate, the population, wealth accumulation, time distribution between work, leisure and children caring, habit formation and preference change. The production technology and markets are built on the Solow growth model. We base our modeling the population dynamics on the Haavelmo population model and the Barro-Becker fertility choice model. This study takes account of habit formation and preference change. Although it is influenced by the Ramsey growth theory with time preference and habit formation, it uses Zhang’s approach to the household with habit formation and preference change. We synthesize different dynamic forces in a compact framework, using the utility function proposed by Zhang. Analytically, we focus on transitional processes as well as economic equilibrium. As the economic system is given by autonomous nonlinear differential equations, it is not easy to analyze its behavior. We simulate the model to demonstrate the existence of an equilibrium point and plot the motion of the dynamic system. We examine the effects of changes in weights given to the habit stock of children, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the propensity to have children, the wife weighing less the habit stock of leisure time, the wife’s habit stock of leisure time having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, the wife’s wage rate having negative impact on the husband’s propensity to use leisure time, woman’s human capital being improved, a rise in the total factor productivity, and the mother spending more time on each child fostering.

Growth Performance Of Mono-Sex And Mixed Sex Population Of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The growth performance of all-male, all-female and mixed sex population of Oreochromis niloticus fed similar diet was carried out. The fingerlings used in the study were of relatively similar weight ranges (24.8 g – 26.6 g) with initial mean weight of 25.7±1.3 g and initial mean total length of 3.8 ± 1.5 cm. The mean increase ...

Living bacteria rheology: Population growth, aggregation patterns, and collective behavior under different shear flows

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Patrício, P.; Almeida, P. L.; Portela, R.; Sobral, R. G.; Grilo, I. R.; Cidade, T.; Leal, C. R.

2014-08-01

The activity of growing living bacteria was investigated using real-time and in situ rheology—in stationary and oscillatory shear. Two different strains of the human pathogen Staphylococcus aureus—strain COL and its isogenic cell wall autolysis mutant, RUSAL9—were considered in this work. For low bacteria density, strain COL forms small clusters, while the mutant, presenting deficient cell separation, forms irregular larger aggregates. In the early stages of growth, when subjected to a stationary shear, the viscosity of the cultures of both strains increases with the population of cells. As the bacteria reach the exponential phase of growth, the viscosity of the cultures of the two strains follows different and rich behaviors, with no counterpart in the optical density or in the population's colony-forming units measurements. While the viscosity of strain COL culture keeps increasing during the exponential phase and returns close to its initial value for the late phase of growth, where the population stabilizes, the viscosity of the mutant strain culture decreases steeply, still in the exponential phase, remains constant for some time, and increases again, reaching a constant plateau at a maximum value for the late phase of growth. These complex viscoelastic behaviors, which were observed to be shear-stress-dependent, are a consequence of two coupled effects: the cell density continuous increase and its changing interacting properties. The viscous and elastic moduli of strain COL culture, obtained with oscillatory shear, exhibit power-law behaviors whose exponents are dependent on the bacteria growth stage. The viscous and elastic moduli of the mutant culture have complex behaviors, emerging from the different relaxation times that are associated with the large molecules of the medium and the self-organized structures of bacteria. Nevertheless, these behaviors reflect the bacteria growth stage.

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

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Barbara Neumann

Full Text Available Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

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Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we

Comparative growth and development of spiders reared on live and dead prey.

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Peng, Yu; Zhang, Fan; Gui, Shaolan; Qiao, Huping; Hose, Grant C

2013-01-01

Scavenging (feeding on dead prey) has been demonstrated across a number of spider families, yet the implications of feeding on dead prey for the growth and development of individuals and population is unknown. In this study we compare the growth, development, and predatory activity of two species of spiders that were fed on live and dead prey. Pardosa astrigera (Lycosidae) and Hylyphantes graminicola (Lyniphiidae) were fed live or dead fruit flies, Drosophila melanogaster. The survival of P. astrigera and H. graminicola was not affected by prey type. The duration of late instars of P. astrigera fed dead prey were longer and mature spiders had less protein content than those fed live prey, whereas there were no differences in the rate of H. graminicola development, but the mass of mature spiders fed dead prey was greater than those fed live prey. Predation rates by P. astrigera did not differ between the two prey types, but H. graminicola had a higher rate of predation on dead than alive prey, presumably because the dead flies were easier to catch and handle. Overall, the growth, development and reproduction of H. graminicola reared with dead flies was better than those reared on live flies, yet for the larger P. astrigera, dead prey may suit smaller instars but mature spiders may be best maintained with live prey. We have clearly demonstrated that dead prey may be suitable for rearing spiders, although the success of the spiders fed such prey appears size- and species specific.

Effects of population density on the growth and egg-laying capacity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The effects of the population density of adult African giant land snail, Archachatina marginata on the egg-laying capacity and the growth of the brooders and hatchlings were investigated for 9 months. Ten culture pens were stocked with snails at 20%, 40%, 60%, 80% and 100% capacity with each group in 2 replicates.

In situ reproduction, abundance, and growth of young-of-year and adult largemouth bass in a population exposed to polychlorinated biphenyls.

Science.gov (United States)

Reiser, Dudley W; Greenberg, Emily S; Helser, Thomas E; Branton, Margaret; Jenkins, Kenneth D

2004-07-01

We conducted a two-year field study (2000-2001) in the Housatonic River, Massachusetts (USA) to determine if we could detect in situ population-level effects on largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) exposed to elevated levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). Calculated whole-body PCB concentrations in adult bass in 2002 averaged 121 mg/kg (range = 34-556 mg/kg). Polychlorinated biphenyl concentrations in young-of-year (YOY) composites in 2000 and 2002 averaged 28 mg/kg (range = 21-41 mg/kg) and 19 mg/kg (range = 16-24 mg/kg), respectively. Laboratory studies of fish have reported PCB toxicity at exposure levels below and within the range of those found in the Housatonic River. We evaluated five field-derived metrics: reproductive activity, relative abundance of YOY, YOY growth rates, adult growth, and adult condition to determine whether we could detect effects of PCBs in the largemouth bass population. These computed metrics, when compared with data sets assembled for numerous largemouth bass populations in North America, provided no evidence of population-level impairment. Results of this study suggest that PCB tissue concentrations associated with effects in laboratory studies do not necessarily translate to detectable effects on largemouth bass populations in their natural environment.

Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

2017-01-01

The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model

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Eric G. Johnson

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader’s life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1 lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2 distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3 the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

Age, growth and population structure of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) in northeast Florida using a length-based, age-structured population model.

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Eric G; Swenarton, Mary Katherine

2016-01-01

The effective management of invasive species requires detailed understanding of the invader's life history. This information is essential for modeling population growth and predicting rates of expansion, quantifying ecological impacts and assessing the efficacy of removal and control strategies. Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans/miles ) have rapidly invaded the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea with documented negative impacts on native ecosystems. To better understand the life history of this species, we developed and validated a length-based, age-structured model to investigate age, growth and population structure in northeast Florida. The main findings of this study were: (1) lionfish exhibited rapid growth with seasonal variation in growth rates; (2) distinct cohorts were clearly identifiable in the length-frequency data, suggesting that lionfish are recruiting during a relatively short period in summer; and (3) the majority of lionfish were less than two years old with no lionfish older than three years of age, which may be the result of culling efforts as well as ontogenetic habitat shifts to deeper water.

Social policy and population growth in South-East Asia.

Science.gov (United States)

You Poh Seng Rao, B; Shantakumar, G

1974-01-01

Social and population policies are considered for the 10 countries comprising Southeast Asia--Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, North Vietnam, and South Vietnam. All but Singapore have high fertility rates and Burma, Indonesia, the Khmer Republic, Laos and the two Vietnams have high mortality rates also. Government expenditures for education and social security systems is expanding throughout the region and it is hoped that their continued growth will contribute substantially to the effective implementation of population policies. Population policies in the 5 countries which have them are discussed. These are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. It is noted, however, that declaration of policy is but the first step. Strategies and programs differ from one country to the next and depend very much on the stage of development, level of literacy, degree of urbanization, and other factors. Family planning activities generally are endogenous to urban social systems but exogenous to rural social systems. Thus, the rural elite has a large role to play in making population policies an integral part of rural life. The possibility is considered of developing workable incentive packages integrating health, education, and social security benefits with suitable emphasis on fertility reduction.

Stochastic resonance in a generalized Von Foerster population growth model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lumi, N.; Mankin, R. [Institute of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Tallinn University, 25 Narva Road, 10120 Tallinn (Estonia)

2014-11-12

The stochastic dynamics of a population growth model, similar to the Von Foerster model for human population, is studied. The influence of fluctuating environment on the carrying capacity is modeled as a multiplicative dichotomous noise. It is established that an interplay between nonlinearity and environmental fluctuations can cause single unidirectional discontinuous transitions of the mean population size versus the noise amplitude, i.e., an increase of noise amplitude can induce a jump from a state with a moderate number of individuals to that with a very large number, while by decreasing the noise amplitude an opposite transition cannot be effected. An analytical expression of the mean escape time for such transitions is found. Particularly, it is shown that the mean transition time exhibits a strong minimum at intermediate values of noise correlation time, i.e., the phenomenon of stochastic resonance occurs. Applications of the results in ecology are also discussed.

Customized vs population-based growth charts to identify neonates at risk of adverse outcome: systematic review and Bayesian meta-analysis of observational studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Chiossi, G; Pedroza, C; Costantine, M M; Truong, V T T; Gargano, G; Saade, G R

2017-08-01

To compare the effectiveness of customized vs population-based growth charts for the prediction of adverse pregnancy outcomes. MEDLINE, ClinicalTrials.gov and The Cochrane Library were searched up to 31 May 2016 to identify interventional and observational studies comparing adverse outcomes among large- (LGA) and small- (SGA) for-gestational-age neonates, when classified according to customized vs population-based growth charts. Perinatal mortality and admission to the neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) of both SGA and LGA neonates, intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) and neonatal mortality of SGA neonates, and neonatal shoulder dystocia and hypoglycemia as well as maternal third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations in LGA pregnancies were evaluated. The electronic search identified 237 records that were examined based on title and abstract, of which 27 full-text articles were examined for eligibility. After excluding seven articles, 20 observational studies were included in a Bayesian meta-analysis. Neonates classified as SGA according to customized growth charts had higher risks of IUFD (odds ratio (OR), 7.8 (95% CI, 4.2-12.3)), neonatal death (OR, 3.5 (95% CI, 1.1-8.0)), perinatal death (OR, 5.8 (95% CI, 3.8-7.8)) and NICU admission (OR, 3.6 (95% CI, 2.0-5.5)) than did non-SGA cases. Neonates classified as SGA according to population-based growth charts also had increased risk for adverse outcomes, albeit the point estimates of the pooled ORs were smaller: IUFD (OR, 3.3 (95% CI, 1.9-5.0)), neonatal death (OR, 2.9 (95% CI, 1.2-4.5)), perinatal death (OR, 4.0 (95% CI, 2.8-5.1)) and NICU admission (OR, 2.4 (95% CI, 1.7-3.2)). For LGA vs non-LGA, there were no differences in pooled ORs for perinatal death, NICU admission, hypoglycemia and maternal third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations when classified according to either the customized or the population-based approach. In contrast, both approaches indicated that LGA neonates are at increased risk for

Elephant population growth in Kruger National Park, South Africa, under a landscape management approach

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Sam M. Ferreira

2017-08-01

Full Text Available South African National Parks (SANParks manage landscapes rather than numbers of elephants (Loxodonta africana to mitigate the effects that elephants may have on biodiversity, tourism and stakeholder conservation values associated with protected areas. This management philosophy imposes spatial variability of critical resources on elephants. Restoration of such ecological processes through less intensive management predicts a reduction in population growth rates from the eras of intensive management. We collated aerial survey data since 1995 and conducted an aerial total count using a helicopter observation platform during 2015. A minimum of 17 086 elephants were resident in the Kruger National Park (KNP in 2015, growing at 4.2% per annum over the last generation of elephants (i.e. 12 years, compared to 6.5% annual population growth noted during the intensive management era ending in 1994. This may come from responses of elephants to density and environmental factors manifested through reduced birth rates and increased mortality rates. Authorities should continue to evaluate the demographic responses of elephants to landscape scale interventions directed at restoring the limitation of spatial variance in resource distribution on elephant spatiotemporal dynamics and the consequences that may have for other conservation values. Conservation implications: Conservation managers should continue with surveying elephants in a way that allows the extraction of key variables. Such variables should focus on measures that reflect on how theory predicts elephants should respond to management interventions.

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

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Ian J Fiske

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5, and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models.

Science.gov (United States)

Fiske, Ian J; Bruna, Emilio M; Bolker, Benjamin M

2008-08-28

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

The dramatic increase in total knee replacement utilization rates in the United States cannot be fully explained by growth in population size and the obesity epidemic.

Science.gov (United States)

Losina, Elena; Thornhill, Thomas S; Rome, Benjamin N; Wright, John; Katz, Jeffrey N

2012-02-01

Total knee replacement utilization in the United States more than doubled from 1999 to 2008. Although the reasons for this increase have not been examined rigorously, some have attributed the increase to population growth and the obesity epidemic. Our goal was to investigate whether the rapid increase in total knee replacement use over the past decade can be sufficiently attributed to changes in these two factors. We used data from the Nationwide Inpatient Sample to estimate changes in total knee replacement utilization rates from 1999 to 2008, stratified by age (eighteen to forty-four years, forty-five to sixty-four years, and sixty-five years or older). We obtained data on obesity prevalence and U.S. population growth from federal sources. We compared the rate of change in total knee replacement utilization with the rates of population growth and change in obesity prevalence from 1999 to 2008. In 2008, 615,050 total knee replacements were performed in the United States adult population, 134% more than in 1999. During the same time period, the overall population size increased by 11%. While the population of forty-five to sixty-four-year-olds grew by 29%, the number of total knee replacements in this age group more than tripled. The number of obese and non-obese individuals in the United States increased by 23% and 4%, respectively. Assuming unchanged indications for total knee replacement among obese and non-obese individuals with knee osteoarthritis over the last decade, these changes fail to account for the 134% growth in total knee replacement use. Population growth and obesity cannot fully explain the rapid expansion of total knee replacements in the last decade, suggesting that other factors must also be involved. The disproportionate increase in total knee replacements among younger patients may be a result of a growing number of knee injuries and expanding indications for the procedure.

Fertility, Mortality and Age Composition Effects of Population Transition in China and India: 1950-2015

OpenAIRE

Chaurasia, Aalok Ranjan

2017-01-01

"This paper compares the population transition in China and India during 1950-2015 by decomposing population growth into the growth attributed to the changes in fertility and mortality (intrinsic growth), and the growth attributed to the change in population age composition (momentum growth). The analysis reveals similarities and differences in the population transition path followed by the two countries and suggests that India lags behind China by about 30 years in terms of population transi...

Population growth and the decline of natural Southern yellow pine forests

Science.gov (United States)

David B. South; Edward R. Buckner

2004-01-01

Population growth has created social and economic pressures that affect the sustainability of naturally regenerated southern yellow pine forests. Major causes of this decline include (1) a shift in public attitudes regarding woods burning (from one favoring it to one that favors fire suppression) and (2) an increase in land values (especially near urban centers). The...

Bone growth, limb proportions and non-specific stress in archaeological populations from Croatia.

Science.gov (United States)

Pinhasi, R; Timpson, A; Thomas, M; Slaus, M

2014-01-01

The effect of environmental factors and, in particular, non-specific stress on the growth patterns of limbs and other body dimensions of children from past populations is not well understood. This study assesses whether growth of mediaeval and post-mediaeval children aged between 0-11.5 years from Adriatic (coastal) and continental Croatia varies by region and by the prevalence and type of non-specific stress. Dental ages were estimated using the Moorrees, Fanning and Hunt (MFH) scoring method. Growth of long bone diaphyses (femur, tibia, humerus, radius and ulna) was assessed by using a composite Z-score statistic (CZS). Clavicular length was measured as a proxy for upper trunk width, distal metaphyseal width of the femur was measured as a proxy for body mass and upper and lower intra-limb indices were calculated. Differences between sub-sets sampled by (a) region and (b) active vs healed non-specific stress indicators and (c) intra-limb indices were tested by Mann--Whitney U-tests and Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA). Adriatic children attained larger dimensions-per-age than continental children. Children with healed stress lesions had larger dimensions-per-age than those with active lesions. No inter-regional difference was found in intra-limb indices. These findings highlight the complexity of growth patterns in past populations and indicate that variation in environmental conditions such as diet and differences in the nature of non-specific stress lesions both exert a significant effect on long bone growth.

Increasing Dengue Incidence in Singapore over the Past 40 Years: Population Growth, Climate and Mobility.

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Claudio Jose Struchiner

Full Text Available In Singapore, the frequency and magnitude of dengue epidemics have increased significantly over the past 40 years. It is important to understand the main drivers for the rapid increase in dengue incidence. We studied the relative contributions of putative drivers for the rise of dengue in Singapore: population growth, climate parameters and international air passenger arrivals from dengue endemic countries, for the time period of 1974 until 2011. We used multivariable Poisson regression models with the following predictors: Annual Population Size; Aedes Premises Index; Mean Annual Temperature; Minimum and Maximum Temperature Recorded in each year; Annual Precipitation and Annual Number of Air Passengers arriving from dengue-endemic South-East Asia to Singapore. The relative risk (RR of the increase in dengue incidence due to population growth over the study period was 42.7, while the climate variables (mean and minimum temperature together explained an RR of 7.1 (RR defined as risk at the end of the time period relative to the beginning and goodness of fit associated with the model leading to these estimates assessed by pseudo-R2 equal to 0.83. Estimating the extent of the contribution of these individual factors on the increasing dengue incidence, we found that population growth contributed to 86% while the residual 14% was explained by increase in temperature. We found no correlation with incoming air passenger arrivals into Singapore from dengue endemic countries. Our findings have significant implications for predicting future trends of the dengue epidemics given the rapid urbanization with population growth in many dengue endemic countries. It is time for policy-makers and the scientific community alike to pay more attention to the negative impact of urbanization and urban climate on diseases such as dengue.

Impacts of invasive fish removal through angling on population characteristics and juvenile growth rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Evangelista, Charlotte; Britton, Robert J; Cucherousset, Julien

2015-06-01

Exploitation can modify the characteristics of fish populations through the selective harvesting of individuals, with this potentially leading to rapid ecological and evolutionary changes. Despite the well-known effects of invasive fishes on aquatic ecosystems generally, the potential effects of their selective removal through angling, a strategy commonly used to manage invasive fish, are poorly understood. The aim of this field-based study was to use the North American pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus as the model species to investigate the consequences of selective removal on their population characteristics and juvenile growth rates across 10 populations in artificial lakes in southern France. We found that the maximal individual mass in populations decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, whereas we did not observed any changes in the maximal individual length in populations as removal pressure increased. Total population abundance did not decrease as removal pressure increased; instead, here was a U-shaped relationship between removal pressure and the abundance of medium-bodied individuals. In addition, population biomass had a U-shaped curve response to removal pressure, implying that invasive fish populations can modulate their characteristics to compensate for the negative effects of selective removals. In addition, individual lengths at age 2 and juvenile growth rates decreased as removal pressure through angling increased, suggesting a shift toward an earlier size at maturity and an overall slower growing phenotype. Therefore, these outputs challenge the efficiency of selective management methods, suggesting the use of more proactive strategies to control invasive populations, and the need to investigate the potential ecological and evolutionary repercussions of nonrandom removal.

Seedling Growth Strategies in Bauhinia Species: Comparing Lianas and Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Cai, Zhi-Quan; Poorter, Lourens; Cao, Kun-Fang; Bongers, Frans

2007-01-01

Background and Aims Lianas are expected to differ from trees in their growth strategies. As a result these two groups of woody species will have different spatial distributions: lianas are more common in high light environments. This study determines the differences in growth patterns, biomass allocation and leaf traits in five closely related liana and tree species of the genus Bauhinia. Methods Seedlings of two light-demanding lianas (Bauhinia tenuiflora and B. claviflora), one shade-tolerant liana (B. aurea), and two light-demanding trees (B. purpurea and B. monandra) were grown in a shadehouse at 25 % of full sunlight. A range of physiological, morphological and biomass parameters at the leaf and whole plant level were compared among these five species. Key Results The two light-demanding liana species had higher relative growth rate (RGR), allocated more biomass to leaf production [higher leaf mass fraction (LMF) and higher leaf area ratio (LAR)] and stem mass fraction (SMF), and less biomass to the roots [root mass fraction (RMF)] than the two tree species. The shade-tolerant liana had the lowest RGR of all five species, and had a higher RMF, lower SMF and similar LMF than the two light-demanding liana species. The two light-demanding lianas had lower photosynthetic rates per unit area (Aarea) and similar photosynthetic rates per unit mass (Amass) than the trees. Across species, RGR was positively related to SLA, but not to LAR and Aarea. Conclusions It is concluded that the faster growth of light-demanding lianas compared with light-demanding trees is based on morphological parameters (SLA, LMF and LAR), and cannot be attributed to higher photosynthetic rates at the leaf level. The shade-tolerant liana exhibited a slow-growth strategy, compared with the light-demanding species. PMID:17720978

Comparative age and growth of common snook Centropomus undecimalis (Pisces: Centropomidae from coastal and riverine areas in Southern Mexico

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Martha A. Perera-Garcia

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Common snook Centropomus unidecimalis is an important commercial and fishery species in Southern Mexico, however the high exploitation rates have resulted in a strong reduction of its abundances. Since, the information about its population structure is scarce, the objective of the present research was to determine and compare the age structure in four important fishery sites. For this, age and growth of common snook were determined from specimens collected monthly, from July 2006 to March 2008, from two coastal (Barra Bosque and Barra San Pedro and two riverine (San Pedro and Tres Brazos commercial fishery sites in Tabasco, Mexico. Age was determined using sectioned saggitae otoliths and data analyzed by von Bertalanffy and Levenberg-Marquardt among others. Estimated ages ranged from 2 to 17 years. Monthly patterns of marginal increment formation and the percentage of otoliths with opaque rings on the outer edge demonstrated that a single annulus was formed each year. The von Bertalanffy parameters were calculated for males and females using linear adjustment and the non-linear method of Levenberg-Marquardt. The von Bertalanffy growth equations were FLt=109.21(1-e-0.21(t+0.57 for Barra Bosque, FLt=94.56(1-e-0.27(t+0.48 for Barra San Pedro, FLt=97.15(1-e-0.17(t+1.32 for San Pedro and FLt=83.77(1-e-0.26(t+0.49 for Tres Brazos. According to (Hotelling’s T², p<0.05 test growth was significantly greater for females than for males. Based on the Chen test, von Bertalanffy growth curves were different among the study sites (RSS, p<0.05. Based on the observed differences in growth parameters among sampling sites (coastal and riverine environments future research need to be conducted on migration and population genetics, in order to delineate the stock structure of this population and support management programs.

Impact of Population Growth and Climate Change on the Freshwater Resources of Lamu Island, Kenya

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Cornelius Okello

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Demand for freshwater is rising with factors, such as population growth, land use change and climate variations, rendering water availability in the future uncertain. Groundwater resources are being increasingly exploited to meet this growing demand. The aim of this study is to identify the influence of population growth induced by land use change and climate change on the future state of freshwater resources of Lamu Island in Kenya where a major port facility is under construction. The results of this study show that the “no industrial development” population scenario (assuming the port was not constructed would be expected to reach ~50,000 people by 2050, while the projected population upon completion is expected to reach 1.25 million in the same year when the Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport Corridor Program (LAPSSET port reaches its full cargo-handling capacity. The groundwater abstraction in 2009 was 0.06 m3 daily per capita, while the demand is expected to raise to 0.1 m3 by 2050 according to the “LAPSSET development” projection. The modelling results show that the Shela aquifer in Lamu, which is the main source of water on the island, will not experience stress by 2065 for the “no industrial development” population scenario, whereas for the “LAPSSET development projection” population scenario, it will occur sooner (between 2020 and 2028. The modelling results show that the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP climate change scenarios will have a smaller impact on the effective water volume reserves than Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES for the “no industrial development”, while the impact is expected to be similar for the “LAPSSET development”, suggesting that population growth exacerbated by land use change will be a more significant driving force than climate change in affecting freshwater availability.

Mortality and reduced growth hormone secretion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stochholm, Kirstine; Christiansen, Jens; Laursen, Torben

2007-01-01

BACKGROUND: Data regarding the mortality rates of patients with growth hormone deficiency (GHD), whether or not treated with growth hormone (GH), are limited, but an increased mortality rate among hypopituitary patients compared with the general population has been documented. Cardiovascular dise...

The little women of Loja--growth hormone-receptor deficiency in an inbred population of southern Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Rosenbloom, A L; Guevara Aguirre, J; Rosenfeld, R G; Fielder, P J

1990-11-15

Laron-type dwarfism, which is characterized by the clinical appearance of isolated growth hormone deficiency with elevated serum levels of growth hormone and decreased serum levels of insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I), has been described in approximately 50 patients. This condition is caused by a deficiency of the cellular receptor for growth hormone, and it is transmitted as an autosomal recessive trait, as indicated by an equal sex distribution and a high rate of consanguinity in affected families. We studied 20 patients (19 females and 1 male, 2 to 49 years of age), from an inbred Spanish population in southern Ecuador, who had the clinical features of Laron-type dwarfism. Seventeen patients were members of two large pedigrees. Among the 13 affected sibships, there were 19 affected and 24 unaffected female siblings and 1 affected and 21 unaffected male siblings. The patients' heights ranged from 10.0 to 6.7 SD below the normal mean height for age in the United States. In addition to the previously described features, 15 patients had limited elbow extensibility, all had blue scleras, affected adults had relatively short extremities, and all four affected women over 30 years of age had hip degeneration. Basal serum concentrations of growth hormone were elevated in all affected children (30 to 160 micrograms per liter) and normal to moderately elevated in the adults. The serum level of growth hormone-binding protein ranged from 1 to 30 percent of normal; IGF-I concentrations were low--less than or equal to 7 micrograms per liter in the children and less than or equal to 66 micrograms per liter in the adults (normal for Ecuadorean women, 98 to 238). Serum levels of IGF-II and growth hormone-dependent IGF-binding protein-3 were also low. We describe an inbred population with a high incidence of growth hormone-receptor deficiency resulting in a clinical picture resembling Laron-type dwarfism but differing principally in showing a marked predominance of affected

Integrating physiological and biomechanical drivers of population growth over environmental gradients on coral reefs.

Science.gov (United States)

Madin, Joshua S; Hoogenboom, Mia O; Connolly, Sean R

2012-03-15

Coral reefs exhibit marked spatial and temporal variability, and coral reef organisms exhibit trade-offs in functional traits that influence demographic performance under different combinations of abiotic environmental conditions. In many systems, trait trade-offs are modelled using an energy and/or nutrient allocation framework. However, on coral reefs, differences in biomechanical vulnerability have major demographic implications, and indeed are believed to play an essential role in mediating species coexistence because highly competitive growth forms are vulnerable to physical dislodgment events that occur with high frequency (e.g. annual summer storms). Therefore, an integrated energy allocation and biomechanics framework is required to understand the effect of physical environmental gradients on species' demographic performance. However, on coral reefs, as in most ecosystems, the effects of environmental conditions on organisms are measured in different currencies (e.g. lipid accumulation, survival and number of gametes), and thus the relative contributions of these effects to overall capacity for population growth are not readily apparent. A comprehensive assessment of links between the environment and the organism, including those mediated by biomechanical processes, must convert environmental effects on individual-level performance (e.g. survival, growth and reproduction) into a common currency that is relevant to the capacity to contribute to population growth. We outline such an approach by considering the population-level performance of scleractinian reef corals over a hydrodynamic gradient, with a focus on the integrating the biomechanical determinants of size-dependent coral colony dislodgment as a function of flow, with the effects of flow on photosynthetic energy acquisition and respiration.

REGIONAL COMPONENTS OF GROWTH THE QUALITY OF LIFE OF THE POPULATION (FOR EXAMPLE, VORONEZH REGION

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N. A. Serebryakova

2015-01-01

Full Text Available At the present stage of development of economy there is a transformation of main objectives of the state from ensuring growth of welfare of citizens to ensuring continuous growth of quality of life. Ensuring growth of quality of life of the population is carried out not only on state, but also on regional levels. At the state level key tasks are formed, the state assumes a considerable share of functions on achievement of the designated purpose. In the real research the attention to consideration of the program documents directed on improvement of quality of life of the population on the example of the Voronezh region is paid. The program documents of a social orientation existing in the region are for this purpose studied. It is revealed that in the region a number of the programs and subprogrammes aimed at improvement of a demographic situation, improvement of a regional budgetary and tax policy, social support of citizens in general works. As tools which use regional authorities, are noted: social standards, address social help, social contracts. It is established that introduction of system of social contracts allows to save budget funds and, at the same time, to motivate the persons which are in a difficult life situation on change of the situation to the best, joint efforts with social security authorities. It is noted that as the leading principles of rendering the social help paramount value has detailed definition of degree of need of the help and a condition of granting. The last often generate dependant moods which are important for leveling, using levers of social interaction. The analysis of the contents of the realized programs for improvement of quality of life of the population allowed to reveal advantages and defects in these programs, and also to define reserves of growth of quality of life. So, it is specified that program documents of regional level in the prevailing majority have a narrow focus on ensuring the help and

Does pollen limitation affect population growth of the endangered Dracocephalum austriacum L.?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Castro, Sílvia; Dostálek, Tomáš; van der Meer, S.; Oostermeijer, G.; Münzbergová, Zuzana

2015-01-01

Roč. 57, č. 1 (2015), s. 105-116 ISSN 1438-3896 R&D Projects: GA ČR GP13-10850P; GA ČR GAP505/10/0593 Institutional support: RVO:67985939 Keywords : Dracocephalum austriacum * pollination ecology * population growth rate Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 1.698, year: 2015

Population growth, economic development and carrying capacity of the environment - are they compatible or in conflict?

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A. E. F. Heydom

1996-07-01

Full Text Available In South Africa, as in many other countries, human population growth is currently reaching levels which render competition for basic human needs such as land and water, inevitable. Concurrent to population growth is the absolute necessity for economic development and job opportunities which, in turn, make tremendous demands upon the environment and natural resource base. As a consequence ever greater emphasis is placed by the news media on apparent conflicts between industrial development and social needs on the one hand, and conservation of the environment and natural resources on the other.

Comparing population health in the United States and Canada

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Huguet Nathalie

2010-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The objective of the paper is to compare population health in the United States (US and Canada. Although the two countries are very similar in many ways, there are potentially important differences in the levels of social and economic inequality and the organization and financing of and access to health care in the two countries. Methods Data are from the Joint Canada/United States Survey of Health 2002/03. The Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3 was used to measure overall health-related quality of life (HRQL. Mean HUI3 scores were compared, adjusting for major determinants of health, including body mass index, smoking, education, gender, race, and income. In addition, estimates of life expectancy were compared. Finally, mean HUI3 scores by age and gender and Canadian and US life tables were used to estimate health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE. Results Life expectancy in Canada is higher than in the US. For those Conclusions The population of Canada appears to be substantially healthier than the US population with respect to life expectancy, HRQL, and HALE. Factors that account for the difference may include access to health care over the full life span (universal health insurance and lower levels of social and economic inequality, especially among the elderly.

[The impact of population growth on Tamba Kosi, a Himalayan valley in Nepal].

Science.gov (United States)

Verliat, S

1994-01-01

Two several-month-long stays in the isolated Tamba Kosi valley in Nepal in 1983 and 1986 allowed an assessment of the importance of changes in rural societies. In about 50 years, the oldest inhabitants of some villages have seen the number of houses quadruple. In the absence of reliable statistical data, the inhabitants say that the Tamba Kosi valley population has doubled in the last 25 years. This population growth exacerbates the multiethnic fight for good land (i.e., ground of modest slope, hot, and humid). Many people have emigrated, which has somewhat eased problems relative to population growth. Soil degradation, which is becoming more and more acute, drives the inhabitants to cut down trees and clear the land for cultivation of new plots. These new plots are running up against steep slopes and high altitude. Most families have barely two hectares, which must suffice to feed 5-6 people on average. This fuels intensification of agricultural production, resulting in low efficacy. Livestock mutilate forests with their hooves and teeth. The marked increase in the variety of livestock accelerates this destruction. Three types of building materials are used in this high valley: thatch, shingles (fir tree), and bamboo matting. The disappearance of wild grasses used to make thatch roofs and people moving to higher and higher altitudes resulted in use of shingles to make roofs. Buildings made of shingles, which demanded changes in construction techniques, changed the conception of homes. They became the preferred building type, which increased the demand for fir trees and deforestation. This lead to a demand for roofing material made of bamboo matting and another change in construction techniques. The retreat of the forest and disappearance of the most wanted plant species are the most spectacular impacts of population growth. This environmental degradation exacerbates erosion at all bioclimatic altitudes.

Nutritional status and growth of children on macrobiotic diets : a population-based study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dagnelie, P.C.

1988-01-01

This thesis reports on the relationship between diet, growth, blood chemistry, psychomotor development, and clinical findings in the Dutch population of children on macrobiotic diets.- The macrobiotic diet mainly consisted of cereals, pulses and vegetables with small additions of seaweeds,

The aggregate site frequency spectrum for comparative population genomic inference.

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Xue, Alexander T; Hickerson, Michael J

2015-12-01

Understanding how assemblages of species responded to past climate change is a central goal of comparative phylogeography and comparative population genomics, an endeavour that has increasing potential to integrate with community ecology. New sequencing technology now provides the potential to perform complex demographic inference at unprecedented resolution across assemblages of nonmodel species. To this end, we introduce the aggregate site frequency spectrum (aSFS), an expansion of the site frequency spectrum to use single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data sets collected from multiple, co-distributed species for assemblage-level demographic inference. We describe how the aSFS is constructed over an arbitrary number of independent population samples and then demonstrate how the aSFS can differentiate various multispecies demographic histories under a wide range of sampling configurations while allowing effective population sizes and expansion magnitudes to vary independently. We subsequently couple the aSFS with a hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) framework to estimate degree of temporal synchronicity in expansion times across taxa, including an empirical demonstration with a data set consisting of five populations of the threespine stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus). Corroborating what is generally understood about the recent postglacial origins of these populations, the joint aSFS/hABC analysis strongly suggests that the stickleback data are most consistent with synchronous expansion after the Last Glacial Maximum (posterior probability = 0.99). The aSFS will have general application for multilevel statistical frameworks to test models involving assemblages and/or communities, and as large-scale SNP data from nonmodel species become routine, the aSFS expands the potential for powerful next-generation comparative population genomic inference. © 2015 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[The population and economic problems of South Asia].

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Gu, J

1983-07-29

South Asia, which includes Central South Asia, Southeast Asia, and Southwest Asia, had a comparatively higher population growth rate during the 30-year postwar period because of the overall backward economy and strong religious tradition. From the viewpoint of economics, the high population growth in South Asia has slowed down economic growth, increased the foreign trade imblance, and worsened poverty. Secondly, the rapid population growth has overburdened the area's educational system. The illiteracy rate has been going up continuously because of inadequate funds available for education. Thirdly, young labor is lacking in skills, training, and work experience, and related productivity has declined. Consequently, profits, the investment capability, and wages are also declining. The problems of the oversupply of labor, unemployment, and poverty have also become increasingly serious. In addition, the rapid population growth has intensified the pressure on the food supply and worsened the average nutrition of the general public. In recent years, countries in South Asia have been trying to deal with various problems caused by the rapid population growth. Measures have been taken to control the population growth, with a redistribution of the population to places outside cities, and export labor to oil-producing nations of the Middle East and Africa in order to solve the problem of the domestic labor surplus and earn more income for the foreign exchange. Countries in South Asia need more time and effort to achieve a balance between the population growth and economic development.

Compound haplotypes at Xp11.23 and human population growth in Eurasia.

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Alonso, S; Armour, J A L

2004-09-01

To investigate patterns of diversity and the evolutionary history of Eurasians, we have sequenced a 2.8 kb region at Xp11.23 in a sample of African and Eurasian chromosomes. This region is in a long intron of CLCN5 and is immediately flanked by a highly variable minisatellite, DXS255, and a human-specific Ta0 LINE. Compared to Africans, Eurasians showed a marked reduction in sequence diversity. The main Euro-Asiatic haplotype seems to be the ancestral haplotype for the whole sample. Coalescent simulations, including recombination and exponential growth, indicate a median length of strong linkage disequilibrium, up to approximately 9 kb for this area. The Ka/Ks ratio between the coding sequence of human CLCN5 and its mouse orthologue is much less than 1. This implies that the region sequenced is unlikely to be under the strong influence of positive selective processes on CLCN5, mutations in which have been associated with disorders such as Dent's disease. In contrast, a scenario based on a population bottleneck and exponential growth seems a more likely explanation for the reduced diversity observed in Eurasians. Coalescent analysis and linked minisatellite diversity (which reaches a gene diversity value greater than 98% in Eurasians) suggest an estimated age of origin of the Euro-Asiatic diversity compatible with a recent out-of-Africa model for colonization of Eurasia by modern Homo sapiens.

Growth references for Tsimane forager-horticulturalists of the Bolivian Amazon.

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Blackwell, Aaron D; Urlacher, Samuel S; Beheim, Bret; von Rueden, Christopher; Jaeggi, Adrian; Stieglitz, Jonathan; Trumble, Benjamin C; Gurven, Michael; Kaplan, Hillard

2017-03-01

Growth standards and references currently used to assess population and individual health are derived primarily from urban populations, including few individuals from indigenous or subsistence groups. Given environmental and genetic differences, growth may vary in these populations. Thus, there is a need to assess whether international standards are appropriate for all populations, and to produce population specific references if growth differs. Here we present and assess growth references for the Tsimane, an indigenous population of Bolivian forager-horticulturalists. Mixed cross-sectional/longitudinal anthropometrics (9,614 individuals; 30,118 observations; ages 0-29 years) were used to generate centile curves and Lambda-Mu-Sigma (LMS) tables for height-for-age, weight-for-age, body mass index (BMI)-for-age, and weight-for-height (WFH) using Generalized Additive Models for Location Shape and Scale (GAMLSS). Velocity curves were generated using SuperImposition by Translation and Rotation (SITAR). Tsimane ≤5 years were compared to World Health Organization (WHO) standards while those >5 years were compared to WHO school age references. All ages were compared to published references for Shuar forager-horticulturalists of the Ecuadorian Amazon. Tsimane growth differs from WHO values in height and weight, but is similar for BMI and WFH. Tsimane growth is characterized by slow height velocity in childhood and early adolescent peak height velocity at 11.3 and 13.2 years for girls and boys. Tsimane growth patterns are similar to Shuar, suggesting shared features of growth among indigenous South Americans. International references for BMI-for-age and WFH are likely appropriate for Tsimane, but differences in height-for-age and weight-for-age suggest Tsimane specific references may be useful for these measures. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea (Psocoptera: Liposcelididae) at constant temperatures and relative humidities.

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Opit, G P; Throne, J E

2009-06-01

We studied the effects of temperature and relative humidity on population growth and development of the psocid Liposcelis brunnea Motschulsky. L. brunnea did not survive at 43% RH, but populations increased from 22.5 to 32.5 degrees C and 55-75% RH. Interestingly, we found population growth was higher at 63% RH than at 75% RH, and the greatest population growth was recorded at 32.5 degrees C and 63% RH. At 35 degrees C, L. brunnea nymphal survivorship was 33%, and populations declined or barely grew. L. brunnea males have two to four nymphal instars, and the percentages of males with two, three, and four instars were 13, 82, and 5%, respectively. Female L. brunnea have three to five instars, and the percentages of females with three, four, and five instars were 18, 78, and 4%, respectively. The life cycle was shorter for males than females. We developed temperature-dependent development equations for male and female eggs, individual nymphal, combined nymphal, and combined immature stages and nymphal survivorship. The ability of L. brunnea to multiply rather rapidly at 55% RH may allow it to thrive under conditions of low relative humidity where other Liposcelis species may not. These data give us a better understanding of L. brunnea population dynamics and can be used to help develop effective management strategies for this psocid.

Biological and ecological evidences suggest Stipa krylovii (Pooideae), contributes to optimal growth performance and population distribution of the grasshopper Oedaleus asiaticus.

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Huang, X B; McNeill, M R; Ma, J C; Qin, X H; Tu, X B; Cao, G C; Wang, G J; Nong, X Q; Zhang, Z H

2017-06-01

Oedaleus asiaticus Bey. Bienko is a significant grasshopper pest species occurring in north Asian grasslands. Outbreaks often result in significant loss in grasses and economic losses. Interestingly, we found this grasshopper was mainly restricted to Stipa-dominated grassland. We suspected this may be related to the dominant grasses species, Stipa krylovii Roshev, and hypothesized that S. krylovii contributes to optimal growth performance and population distribution of O. asiaticus. A 4 year investigation showed that O. asiaticus density was positively correlated to the above-ground biomass of S. krylovii and O. asiaticus growth performance variables (survival rate, size, growth rate) were significantly higher in Stipa-dominated grassland. A feeding trial also showed that O. asiaticus had a higher growth performance when feeding exclusively on S. krylovii. In addition, the choice, consumption and the efficiency of conversion of ingested food (ECI) by O. asiaticus was highest for S. krylovii compared with other plant species found in the Asian grasslands. These ecological and biological traits revealed why O. asiaticus is strongly associated with Stipa-dominated grasslands. We concluded that the existence of S. krylovii benefited the growth performance and explained the distribution of O. asiaticus. These results are useful for improved pest management strategies and developing guidelines for the monitoring of grasshopper population dynamics against the background of vegetation succession and changing plant communities in response to activities such as grazing, fire and climate change.

Population growth and development in the Third World: the neocolonial context.

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Patterson, J G; Shrestha, N R

1988-01-01

Less developed countries (LDCs) that were colonies of other nations continued operating under the same social and political structures set up by the former ruling nations. The small minority of elites in the LDCs held on to the power acquired during colonial times. In order to preserve their political and financial status after independence, they maintained their close linkages to the capitalist nations and their multinational corporations (MNCs). The elites did not generally have popular support, however. These capitalist nations and their commercial interests continue to dictate most LDCs development process which supports the financial interests of the MNCs and the local elites and not those of the majority, the poor. The poor realize that they are trapped and unable to break away from the economic and political structures, therefore, to assure some form of security, they have many children which exacerbates their poverty. Yet population control policies based on Malthusian theory and those that rely on such undimensional, technical approaches as family planning alone cannot cure the multidimensional social problems of high population growth and poverty. Neither the Malthusian nor Marxist theories totally explain the situation in the LDCs or even provide workable solutions. Research on population and development in LDCs needs to address both the Malthusian concern for the problems posed by high growth rates and the Marxist critique of class struggle in development trends. To eliminate the trap of poverty and dependent economies, each country must design its own remedies based on its history, culture, and geography and alter the prevailing social, economic, and political power structures in favor of the poor. 6 propositions that must be modified to each nation's particular problems and needs are presented to guide LDCs in formulating or reformulating policies to alleviate the problems of population and poverty.

The interaction between the spatial distribution of resource patches and population density: consequences for intraspecific growth and morphology.

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Jacobson, Bailey; Grant, James W A; Peres-Neto, Pedro R

2015-07-01

How individuals within a population distribute themselves across resource patches of varying quality has been an important focus of ecological theory. The ideal free distribution predicts equal fitness amongst individuals in a 1 : 1 ratio with resources, whereas resource defence theory predicts different degrees of monopolization (fitness variance) as a function of temporal and spatial resource clumping and population density. One overlooked landscape characteristic is the spatial distribution of resource patches, altering the equitability of resource accessibility and thereby the effective number of competitors. While much work has investigated the influence of morphology on competitive ability for different resource types, less is known regarding the phenotypic characteristics conferring relative ability for a single resource type, particularly when exploitative competition predominates. Here we used young-of-the-year rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to test whether and how the spatial distribution of resource patches and population density interact to influence the level and variance of individual growth, as well as if functional morphology relates to competitive ability. Feeding trials were conducted within stream channels under three spatial distributions of nine resource patches (distributed, semi-clumped and clumped) at two density levels (9 and 27 individuals). Average trial growth was greater in high-density treatments with no effect of resource distribution. Within-trial growth variance had opposite patterns across resource distributions. Here, variance decreased at low-population, but increased at high-population densities as patches became increasingly clumped as the result of changes in the levels of interference vs. exploitative competition. Within-trial growth was related to both pre- and post-trial morphology where competitive individuals were those with traits associated with swimming capacity and efficiency: larger heads/bodies/caudal fins

Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria reduce aphid population and enhance the productivity of bread wheat.

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Naeem, Muhammad; Aslam, Zubair; Khaliq, Abdul; Ahmed, Jam Nazir; Nawaz, Ahmad; Hussain, Mubshar

2018-04-24

Plant growth promoting rhizobacteria increase plant growth and give protection against insect pests and pathogens. Due to the negative impact of chemical pesticides on environment, alternatives to these chemicals are needed. In this scenario, the biological methods of pest control offer an eco-friendly and an attractive option. In this study, the effect of two plant growth promoting rhizobacterial strains (Bacillus sp. strain 6 and Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K) on aphid population and wheat productivity was evaluated in an aphid susceptible (Pasban-90) and resistant (Inqlab-91) wheat cultivar. The seeds were inoculated with each PGPR strain, separately or the combination of both. The lowest aphid population (2.1tiller -1 ), and highest plant height (85.8cm), number of spikelets per spike (18), grains per spike (44), productive tillers (320m -2 ), straw yield (8.6Mgha -1 ), and grain yield (4.8Mgha -1 ) were achieved when seeds were inoculated with Bacillus sp. strain 6+Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K. The grain yield of both varieties was enhanced by 35.5-38.9% with seed inoculation with both bacterial strains. Thus, the combine use of both PGPR strains viz. Bacillus sp. strain 6+Pseudomonas sp. strain 6K offers an attractive option to reduce aphid population tied with better wheat productivity. Copyright © 2018 Sociedade Brasileira de Microbiologia. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Grassland ecology and population growth: striking a balance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hou, D; Duan, C; Zhang, D

2000-06-01

Degradation of forest and grasslands in western China attributes to the soil erosion and desertification in the country. Researchers have established that the primary reason for the degradation of grasslands is overgrazing, which in turn is caused by a number of factors, including over-population and over-reliance on animal husbandry. In addition, the existing administrative system has also proved ineffective in ensuring sustainable development. On contrary, many local governments even encourage exploitative development of grassland; thus, localities opened up grassland for growing crops in an effort to increase income. According to estimates, degraded grassland accounts for more than one-third of utilizable acreage and another one-third suffers from a profusion of rats and pests. To redress the situation, central government should implement strategies in achieving sustainable development, such as providing banking and tax incentives for the development of the secondary and tertiary industries, and supporting education and training of youths from herding areas. Moreover, government should increase spending on infrastructural construction and ecological preservation. Finally, the family planning program needs to be enforced to control population growth and improve the quality of peoples¿ lives.

Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models.

Science.gov (United States)

Peckham, Scott D; Waymire, Edward C; De Leenheer, Patrick

2018-02-16

This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population's growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

Digital Image Analysis of Yeast Single Cells Growing in Two Different Oxygen Concentrations to Analyze the Population Growth and to Assist Individual-Based Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ginovart, Marta; Carbó, Rosa; Blanco, Mónica; Portell, Xavier

2017-01-01

Nowadays control of the growth of Saccharomyces to obtain biomass or cellular wall components is crucial for specific industrial applications. The general aim of this contribution is to deal with experimental data obtained from yeast cells and from yeast cultures to attempt the integration of the two levels of information, individual and population, to progress in the control of yeast biotechnological processes by means of the overall analysis of this set of experimental data, and to assist in the improvement of an individual-based model, namely, INDISIM- Saccha . Populations of S. cerevisiae growing in liquid batch culture, in aerobic and microaerophilic conditions, were studied. A set of digital images was taken during the population growth, and a protocol for the treatment and analyses of the images obtained was established. The piecewise linear model of Buchanan was adjusted to the temporal evolutions of the yeast populations to determine the kinetic parameters and changes of growth phases. In parallel, for all the yeast cells analyzed, values of direct morphological parameters, such as area, perimeter, major diameter, minor diameter, and derived ones, such as circularity and elongation, were obtained. Graphical and numerical methods from descriptive statistics were applied to these data to characterize the growth phases and the budding state of the yeast cells in both experimental conditions, and inferential statistical methods were used to compare the diverse groups of data achieved. Oxidative metabolism of yeast in a medium with oxygen available and low initial sugar concentration can be taken into account in order to obtain a greater number of cells or larger cells. Morphological parameters were analyzed statistically to identify which were the most useful for the discrimination of the different states, according to budding and/or growth phase, in aerobic and microaerophilic conditions. The use of the experimental data for subsequent modeling work was then

Mutually catalyzed birth of population and assets in exchange-driven growth

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Lin, Zhenquan; Ke, Jianhong; Ye, Gaoxiang

2006-10-01

We propose an exchange-driven aggregation growth model of population and assets with mutually catalyzed birth to study the interaction between the population and assets in their exchange-driven processes. In this model, monomer (or equivalently, individual) exchange occurs between any pair of aggregates of the same species (population or assets). The rate kernels of the exchanges of population and assets are K(k,l)=Kkl and L(k,l)=Lkl , respectively, at which one monomer migrates from an aggregate of size k to another of size l . Meanwhile, an aggregate of one species can yield a new monomer by the catalysis of an arbitrary aggregate of the other species. The rate kernel of asset-catalyzed population birth is I(k,l)=Iklμ [and that of population-catalyzed asset birth is J(k,l)=Jklν ], at which an aggregate of size k gains a monomer birth when it meets a catalyst aggregate of size l . The kinetic behaviors of the population and asset aggregates are solved based on the rate equations. The evolution of the aggregate size distributions of population and assets is found to fall into one of three categories for different parameters μ and ν : (i) population (asset) aggregates evolve according to the conventional scaling form in the case of μ⩽0 (ν⩽0) , (ii) population (asset) aggregates evolve according to a modified scaling form in the case of ν=0 and μ>0 ( μ=0 and ν>0 ), and (iii) both population and asset aggregates undergo gelation transitions at a finite time in the case of μ=ν>0 .

Effect of three food types on the population growth of Brachionus calyciflorus and Brachionus patulus (Rotifera: Brachionidae

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S.S.S. Sarma

2001-03-01

Full Text Available We compared the population growth of B. calyciflorus and B. patulus using the green alga Chlorella vulgaris, baker’s yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae or their mixture in equal proportions as food. Food was offered once every 24 h in two concentrations (low: 1x10(6 and high: 3x10(6 ind. ml-1 separately for each species. The experiments were terminated after 15 days. In general, at any food type or concentration, B. patulus reached a higher population density. A diet of Chlorella alone supported a higher population growth of both rotifer species than yeast alone. B. calyciflorus and B. patulus achieved highest population densities (103+8 ind. ml-1 and 296+20 ind. ml-1, respectively on a diet of Chlorella at 3x10(6 ind. ml-1. When cultured using the mixture of Chlorella and yeast, the maximal population densities of B. calyciflorus were lower than those grown on Chlorella. Under similar conditions, the maximal abundance values of B. patulus were comparable in both food types. Regardless of food type and density the rate of population increase per day (r for B. calyciflorus varied from 0.13+0.03 to 0.63+0.04. These values for B. patulus ranged from 0.19+0.01 to 0.37+0.01. The results indicated that even though Chlorella was a superior foof for the tested rotifers, yeast can be effectively used at low concentrations to supplement algal requirements in rotifer culture systems.Se comparó el crecimiento poblacional de dos especies planctónicas (B. calyciflorus y B. patulus desarrolladas con el alga verde Chlorella vulgaris, la levadura de cerveza Saccharomyces cerevisiae y la mezcla de ambas dietas en proporciones iguales. B. patulus alcanzó las mayores densidades con cualquier tipo de alimento utilizado en comparación con B. calyciflorus. La dieta a base de Chlorella vulgaris sola promovió el mayor crecimiento poblacional en relación con la dieta de levadura sola. B. calyciflorus y B. patulus alcanzaron las mayores densidades de 103+8 ind. ml-1 y

Growth comparison in children with and without food allergies in 2 different demographic populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehta, Harshna; Ramesh, Manish; Feuille, Elizabeth; Groetch, Marion; Wang, Julie

2014-10-01

To examine the effects of food avoidance on the growth of children with food allergies. A retrospective chart review was performed for children with and without food allergies followed at 2 New York City general pediatric practices. Charts were selected based on codes from the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision, for well child visit, food allergy, anaphylaxis, and/or epinephrine autoinjector prescriptions. Heights and weights were obtained to calculate body mass index, height, and weight z-scores. Of the 9938 children seen, 439 (4.4%) were avoiding one or more foods. Of those with commercial insurance, children with food allergies were significantly shorter (mean height z-score = 0.06; P = .01) and weighed less (mean weight z-score -0.1; P = .006) than children without food allergies (mean height z-score = 0.42; mean weight z-score = 0.07). In contrast, children with food allergies and state insurance were not smaller in height or weight compared with children without food allergies. Among white subjects, there was a significant effect of food allergies on height and weight (ANOVA for height P = .012, for weight P = .0036) that was not observed for Hispanic/Latino, black, or Asian subjects. Children with allergies to milk weighed significantly less than children without milk allergies (P = .0006). Children with food allergies and commercial insurance have significant impairment in growth compared with those without food allergies. Additionally, children avoiding all forms of milk are shorter and weigh less than matched counterparts. Therefore, height and weight measurements should be assessed routinely in children with food allergies because there is risk for growth impairment in this population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A spatial analysis of patterns of growth and concentration of population based on homogeneous population censuses: Spain (1877-2001

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Xavier Franch Auladell

2013-01-01

Full Text Available This work constitutes a contribution to the analysis of long term patterns of population concentration applied to the case of Spain. The proposed methodology is based on the homogenisation of both data and administrative units which takes the municipal structure of the 2001 census as its base reference. This work seeks to show how applying spatial analysis techniques to this type of homogeneous data series allows us to make more detailed studies of population patterns within a given territory. The most important conclusions that we reached was that, in Spain, sustained population growth has followed a spatial pattern that has become increasingly consolidated over time. The tendencies observed have produced an uneven distribution of population within the national territory marked by the existence of a series of well-defined, and often very localised, areas that spread beyond the limits of the official administrative boundaries.

The Effect of Population Growth upon the Quantity of Education Children Receive.

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Simon, Julian L.; Pilarski, Adam M.

1979-01-01

There is indeed some negative effect of population growth on the amount of education in developing nations, but the effect is less severe than has been thought. This finding is in sharp contrast to previous conclusions drawn from similar cross-national data. Available from Review of Economics and Statistics, M-8 Littauer Center, Cambridge, MA…

APPLICATION OF ELASTICITY ANALYSES AND PERTURBATION SIMULATIONS IN DETERMINING STRESSOR IMPACTS ON POPULATION GROWTH RATE AND EXTINCTION RISK

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Population structure and life history strategies are determinants of how populations respond to stressor-induced impairments in individual-level responses, but a consistent and holistic analysis has not been reported. Effects on population growth rate were modeled using five theo...

Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

2014-08-01

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

An application of Pontrjagin's principle to the study of the optimal growth of population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spinadel, V. de

1976-01-01

This paper examines the consequences of an optimal control of population growth and allows to derive criteria referring to the economic basis of expenditure on population control and to obtain optimal paths for a model in which such a control is possible. By means of very simple assumptions one can reduce the problem to a two-state variable control problem and, in consequence, apply Pontrjagin's maximum principle to solve it. (author)

Degree of facial and body terminal hair growth in unselected black and white women: toward a populational definition of hirsutism.

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DeUgarte, Catherine Marin; Woods, K S; Bartolucci, Alfred A; Azziz, Ricardo

2006-04-01

Hirsutism (i.e. facial and body terminal hair growth in a male-like pattern in women) is the principal clinical sign of hyperandrogenism, although its definition remains unclear. The purposes of the present study were to define 1) the degree of facial and body terminal hair, as assessed by the modified Ferriman-Gallwey (mFG) score, in unselected women from the general population; 2) the effect of race (Black and White) on the same; and 3) the normative cutoff values. We conducted a prospective observational study at a tertiary academic medical center. Participants included 633 unselected White (n = 283) and Black (n = 350) women presenting for a preemployment physical exam. Interventions included history and physical examination. Terminal body hair growth was assessed using the mFG scoring system; nine body areas were scored from 0-4 for terminal hair growth distribution. The mFG scores were not normally distributed; although cluster analysis failed to identify a natural cutoff value or clustering of the population, principal component and univariate analyses denoted two nearly distinct clusters that occurred above and below an mFG value of 2, with the bulk of the scores below. Overall, an mFG score of at least 3 was observed in 22.1% of all subjects (i.e. the upper quartile); of these subjects, 69.3% complained of being hirsute, compared with 15.8% of women with an mFG score below this value, and similar to the proportion of women with an mFG score of at least 8 who considered themselves to be hirsute (70.0%). Overall, there were no significant differences between Black and White women. Our data indicate that the prevalence and degree of facial and body terminal hair growth, as assessed by the mFG score, is similar in Black and White women and that an mFG of at least 3 signals the population of women whose hair growth falls out of the norm.

A Comparative Study of Growth Patterns in Crested Langurs and Vervet Monkeys

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Debra R. Bolter

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The physical growth patterns of crested langurs and vervet monkeys are investigated for several unilinear dimensions. Long bone lengths, trunk height, foot length, epiphyseal fusion of the long bones and the pelvis, and cranial capacity are compared through six dental growth stages in male Trachypithecus cristatus (crested langurs and Cercopithecus aethiops (vervet monkeys. Results show that the body elements of crested langurs mature differently than those of vervets. In some dimensions, langurs and vervets grow comparably, in others vervets attain adult values in advance of crested langurs, and in one feature the langurs are accelerated. Several factors may explain this difference, including phylogeny, diet, ecology, and locomotion. This study proposes that locomotor requirements affect differences in somatic growth between the species.

Geographic distribution of habitat, development, and population growth rates of the Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri, in Mexico.

Science.gov (United States)

López-Collado, José; Isabel López-Arroyo, J; Robles-García, Pedro L; Márquez-Santos, Magdalena

2013-01-01

The Asian citrus psyllid, Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Psyllidae), is an introduced pest in Mexico and a vector of huanglongbing, a lethal citrus disease. Estimations of the habitat distribution and population growth rates of D. citri are required to establish regional and areawide management strategies and can be used as a pest risk analysis tools. In this study, the habitat distribution of D. citri in Mexico was computed with MaxEnt, an inductive, machine-learning program that uses bioclimatic layers and point location data. Geographic distributions of development and population growth rates were determined by fitting a temperature-dependent, nonlinear model and projecting the rates over the target area, using the annual mean temperature as the predictor variable. The results showed that the most suitable regions for habitat of D. citri comprise the Gulf of Mexico states, Yucatán Peninsula, and areas scattered throughout the Pacific coastal states. Less suitable areas occurred in northern and central states. The most important predictor variables were related to temperature. Development and growth rates had a distribution wider than habitat, reaching some of the northern states of México. Habitat, development, and population growth rates were correlated to each other and with the citrus producing area. These relationships indicated that citrus producing states are within the most suitable regions for the occurrence, development, and population growth of D. citri, therefore increasing the risk of huanglongbing dispersion.

Population Growth Rates: Connecting Mathematics to Studies of Society and the Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Ninbet, Steven; Hurley, Gabrielle; Weldon, Elizabeth

2006-01-01

This article reports on the teaching of a unit of lessons which integrates mathematics with studies of society and the environment. The unit entitled "Population Growth Rates" was taught to a double class of Year 6 students by a team of three teachers. The objectives of the unit were: (1) to provide students with a real-world context in…

Growth curves and the international standard: How children's growth reflects challenging conditions in rural Timor-Leste.

Science.gov (United States)

Spencer, Phoebe R; Sanders, Katherine A; Judge, Debra S

2018-02-01

Population-specific growth references are important in understanding local growth variation, especially in developing countries where child growth is poor and the need for effective health interventions is high. In this article, we use mixed longitudinal data to calculate the first growth curves for rural East Timorese children to identify where, during development, deviation from the international standards occurs. Over an eight-year period, 1,245 children from two ecologically distinct rural areas of Timor-Leste were measured a total of 4,904 times. We compared growth to the World Health Organization (WHO) standards using z-scores, and modeled height and weight velocity using the SuperImposition by Translation And Rotation (SITAR) method. Using the Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) method, we created the first growth curves for rural Timorese children for height, weight and body mass index (BMI). Relative to the WHO standards, children show early-life growth faltering, and stunting throughout childhood and adolescence. The median height and weight for this population tracks below the WHO fifth centile. Males have poorer growth than females in both z-BMI (p = .001) and z-height-for-age (p = .018) and, unlike females, continue to grow into adulthood. This is the most comprehensive investigation to date of rural Timorese children's growth, and the growth curves created may potentially be used to identify future secular trends in growth as the country develops. We show significant deviation from the international standard that becomes most pronounced at adolescence, similar to the growth of other Asian populations. Males and females show different growth responses to challenging conditions in this population. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Inductions of reproduction and population growth in the generalist predator Cyrtorhinus lividipennis (Hemiptera: Miridae) exposed to sub-lethal concentrations of insecticides.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Weiwei; Xu, Qiujing; Zhu, Jun; Liu, Chen; Ge, Linquan; Yang, Guoqing; Liu, Fang

2017-08-01

The miridbug, Cyrtorhinus lividipennis, is a significant predacious enemy of rice planthoppers. The effects of sub-lethal concentrations of triazophos, deltamethrin and imidacloprid on fecundity, egg hatchability, expression levels of genes associated with reproduction, and population growth in C. lividipennis were investigated. The fecundities for three pair combinations (♀ c × ♂ t , ♀ t × ♂ c and ♀ t × ♂ t ) treated with sub-lethal concentrations of the insecticides triazophos, deltamethrin and imidacloprid (LC 10 and LC 20 ) showed a significant increase compared to the untreated pairs (♀ c × ♂ c ). However, sub-lethal concentration treatments did not affect the egg hatchability. The ClVg expression levels of female adults exposed to triazophos, deltamethrin and imidacloprid (LC 20 ) increased by 52.6, 48.9 and 91.2%, respectively. The ClSPATA13 expression level of adult males exposed to triazophos, deltamethrim and imidacloprid (LC 20 ) increased by 80.7, 41.3 and 48.3%, respectively. Furthermore, sub-lethal concentrations of insecticides (LC 20 ) caused increased population numbers in C. lividipennis. Sub-lethal concentrations of triazophos, deltamethrin and imidacloprid stimulated reproduction and enhanced population growth of C. lividipennis. The reproductive stimulation might result from the up-regulation of ClVg or ClSPATA13. These findings may be useful in mediating populations of planthoppers. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts: linking N2O and CH4 emissions from agriculture to population growth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beek, Christy L. van; Meerburg, Bastiaan G.; Schils, Rene L.M.; Verhagen, Jan; Kuikman, Peter J.

2010-01-01

The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present. These are mainly developing countries and countries in transition, the so-called non-Annex I countries of the UNFCCC. However, intensification of agricultural production systems is currently closely linked to high emissions of greenhouse gases notably nitrous oxide (N 2 O) and methane (CH 4 ). In this paper the relations between population growth, agricultural development and emissions of N 2 O and CH 4 were assessed for 10 non-Annex I countries, viz. China, India, Vietnam, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Mongolia, Nigeria, Tanzania and South Africa. We combined FAO data on agricultural production levels, CENSUS data on population statistics and EDGAR data on N 2 O and CH 4 emissions. The projected trends in agricultural production indicate that emissions of N 2 O and CH 4 are expected to increase rapidly in the coming years and will level off from 2040 onwards. The results confirm the positive relation between population increase and increased emissions from agricultural activities for most countries. However, for some countries (South Africa, China and Mexico) this relation was weak or absent. Although numerous factors (e.g. changes in international trade) may have scattered the relation and we were unable to explain this decoupling, it suggests that population growth can be possible without additional emissions. The variation between the different countries and farming systems is however large and mitigation measures at farm-level should be tailored to the wide diversity in environmental conditions, regional customs and farming systems.

The temporal and spatial dynamics of income and population growth in Ohio, 1950-1990.

Science.gov (United States)

Fan, C C

1994-01-01

"This paper focuses on spatial variation of growth within a state. Using Ohio as a case study, two hypotheses are extracted from the literature. First, the theories of polarization and polarization reversal suggest that in the old industrial core the leading sector role of manufacturing has diminished in old manufacturing poles, and that income growth trends differ substantially between these old poles and new centres of development. Second, the theories of suburbanization and migration reversals suggest that population growth is contingent upon level of urbanization, and that the relationship has changed drastically between the pre-1970s, 1970s, and post-1970s periods." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER) excerpt

Population Growth and Damage Caused by Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) (Hemiptera, Aphididae) on Different Cultivars and Phenological Stages of Wheat.

Science.gov (United States)

Savaris, M; Lampert, S; Salvadori, J R; Lau, D; Pereira, P R V S; Smaniotto, M A

2013-10-01

Among the aphids associated with wheat and other winter cereals, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) is currently the predominant species in the wheat growing region of southern Brazil. The damage caused by this aphid occurs by direct feeding and/or by the transmission of pathogenic viruses, such as the Barley/Cereal yellow dwarf virus. In order to estimate the direct damage caused by R. padi on wheat, we evaluated the population growth of this aphid during the tillering and elongation stages and its effects on grain yield components. The experiment was conducted in a screenhouse with three wheat cultivars (BRS Guabiju, BRS Timbaúva, and Embrapa 16). The effect of a period of 16 days, starting from an infestation of 40 aviruliferous aphids/plant, was evaluated and compared to non-infested plants. In both stages, the population growth of R. padi was lower on the BRS Timbaúva. Although infestation caused a reduction in the grain yield of the three cultivars, this effect was lower for BRS Timbaúva. The cultivar Embrapa 16 supported higher infestations and was more tolerant to damage than the BRS Guabiju.

Population Growth Rate, Life Expectancy and Pension Program Improvement in China

OpenAIRE

Yang, Zaigui

2008-01-01

Applying an overlapping-generations model with lifetime uncertainty, we examine in this paper China’s partially funded public pension system. The findings show that the individual contribution rate does not affect the capital-labor ratio but the firm contribution rate does. The optimal firm contribution rate depends on the capital share of income, social discount factor, survival probability, and population growth rate. The simulation results indicate that the optimal firm contribution rate r...

Giant planet population synthesis: comparing theory with observations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Benz, W; Mordasini, C; Alibert, Y; Naef, D

2008-01-01

The characteristics of the now over 250 known extra-solar giant planets begin to provide a database with which current planet formation theories can be put to the test. To do this, we synthesize the expected planet population based on the core-accretion scenario by sampling initial conditions in a Monte Carlo fashion. We then apply appropriate observational detection biases and compare the resulting population with the one actually detected. Quantitative statistical tests allow us to determine how well the models are reproducing the observed samples. The model can be applied to compute the expected planet population detectable with different techniques (radial velocity measurements, transits, gravitational lensing, etc) or orbiting stars of different masses. In the latter case, we show that forming Jupiter-mass planets orbiting M dwarfs within the lifetime of proto-planetary disks is indeed possible. However, the models predict that with decreasing stellar mass, the ratio of Jupiter- to Neptune-mass planets will sharply decrease

Giant planet population synthesis: comparing theory with observations

Science.gov (United States)

Benz, W.; Mordasini, C.; Alibert, Y.; Naef, D.

2008-08-01

The characteristics of the now over 250 known extra-solar giant planets begin to provide a database with which current planet formation theories can be put to the test. To do this, we synthesize the expected planet population based on the core-accretion scenario by sampling initial conditions in a Monte Carlo fashion. We then apply appropriate observational detection biases and compare the resulting population with the one actually detected. Quantitative statistical tests allow us to determine how well the models are reproducing the observed samples. The model can be applied to compute the expected planet population detectable with different techniques (radial velocity measurements, transits, gravitational lensing, etc) or orbiting stars of different masses. In the latter case, we show that forming Jupiter-mass planets orbiting M dwarfs within the lifetime of proto-planetary disks is indeed possible. However, the models predict that with decreasing stellar mass, the ratio of Jupiter- to Neptune-mass planets will sharply decrease.

A comparative study of the mobile population in Wuhan and other major cities.

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Y

1997-01-01

This study examined population mobility among residents of 5 cities in China: Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen. Data were obtained from the 1995 Sample Survey of 1% of Wuhan Population and provincial Statistical Yearbooks. The total mobile population in China has increased from 20-80 million during 1982-95. Shanghai is the largest Chinese city. Beijing has a large proportion of international and internal migrants. Guangzhou is a capital city that was the first to adopt economic reforms. Migration fueled development in Shenzhen. A larger mobile population was related to larger population density. The mobile population was 20% in all cities, 30% of central city population, and 140.5% of the central city of Shenzhen. Beijing and Shanghai had the highest growth rates. Construction accounts for the largest percentage of business-related mobile population in Wuhan, Beijing, and Shanghai. Manufacturing accounts for the largest percentage in Guangzhou and Shenzhen. Most of the mobile population in capital cities such as Wuhan and Guangzhou, originates from within the provinces. The largest percentage of mobile population in Beijing and Shanghai come from adjacent provinces. Guangzhou receives many migrants from adjacent Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan. 47.8-78.8% of mobile population were farmers. More migrants are men. Educational levels are low. The mobile population contributes to industry and informational/cultural exchange. The migrants detract from urban areas in population pressure on housing and services, shortages of employment, illegal activities and crime, and unplanned births.

Variability in the contribution of different life stages to population growth as a key factor in the invasion success of Pinus strobus.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zuzana Münzbergová

Full Text Available Despite the increasing number of studies attempting to model population growth in various organisms, we still know relatively little about the population dynamics of long-lived species that reproduce only in the later stages of their life cycle, such as trees. Predictions of the dynamics of these species are, however, urgently needed for planning management actions when species are either endangered or invasive. In long-lived species, a single management intervention may have consequences for several decades, and detailed knowledge of long-term performance can therefore elucidate possible outcomes during the management planning phase.We studied the population dynamics of an invasive tree species, Pinus strobus, in three habitat types represented by their position along the elevation gradient occupied by the species. In agreement with previous studies on the population dynamics of long-lived perennials, our results show that the survival of the largest trees exhibits the highest elasticity in all of the studied habitats. In contrast, life table response experiments (LTRE analysis showed that different stages contribute the most to population growth rates in different habitats, with generative reproduction being more important in lower slopes and valley bottoms and survival being more important on rock tops and upper slopes.The results indicate that P. strobus exhibits different growth strategies in different habitats that result in similar population growth rates. We propose that this plasticity in growth strategies is a key factor in the invasion success of the white pine. In all of the investigated habitats, the population growth rates are above 1, indicating that the population of the species is still increasing and has the ability to spread and occupy a wide range of habitats.

How do mean division shares affect growth and development

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Shao Liang Frank

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The Gini coefficient is widely used in academia to discuss how income inequality affects development and growth. However, different Lorenz curves may provide different development and growth outcomes while still leading to the same Gini coefficient. This paper studies the development effects of “mean division shares”, i.e., the share of income (mean income share held by people whose household disposable income per capita is below the mean income and the share of the population (mean population share with this income, using panel data. Our analysis explores how this income share and population share impact development and growth. It shows that the income and population shares affect growth in significantly different ways and that an analysis of these metrics provides substantial value compared to that of the Gini coefficient.

The Importance of Human Ecology at the Threshold of the Next Millennium: How Can Population Growth Be Stopped?

Science.gov (United States)

Nentwig, W.

Ecology is defined as the set of complex interactions between the biotic and abiotic environments. Human ecology concerns principally the population ecology "only" of Homo sapiens, but it also includes all aspects of global ecology because humans are the most important species. Human demography is characterized by a recent decline in mortality and fertility rates. These demographic transitions have largely been completed in industrialized countries, but not in the 140 developing countries. Approximately 100 countries are following the same demographic pattern as industrialized countries, however with a time delay of several generations. China has effectively reduced its population increase by means that would be unacceptable in Western democracies. Some 44 developing countries still show increasing population growth and no detectable demographic transition in birth rate. Thus one part of the world shows limited (and, in the long run, shrinking) population growth, and another continues with a strong increase. All populations are limited in their development by their sustainability by their environment, for example, food and energy resources, and the extent of pollution which the use of these resources produces. It is argued that in the case of human population the limits of sustainability have already been reached with the 6 billion humans alive today, since at least 20% of these suffer from hunger, natural resources are overexploited, and biodiversity is threatened. In the coming 200years it is more likely that the total population will substantially oscillate rather than approach the predicted 12 billion. The most important goal of human ecology should therefore be to slow population growth as far as possible.

Individual growth and reproductive behavior in a newly established population of northern snakehead (Channa argus), Potomac River, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Landis, Andrew M. Gascho; Lapointe, Nicolas W. R.; Angermeier, Paul L.

2010-01-01

Northern snakehead (Channa argus) were first found in the Potomac River in 2004. In 2007, we documented feeding and reproductive behavior to better understand how this species is performing in this novel environment. From April to October, we used electrofishing surveys to collect data on growth, condition, and gonad weight of adult fish. Growth rates of young were measured on a daily basis for several weeks. Mean length-at-age for Potomac River northern snakehead was lower than for fish from China, Russia, and Uzbekistan. Fish condition was above average during spring and fall, but below average in summer. Below-average condition corresponded to periods of high spawning activity. Gonadosomatic index indicated that females began spawning at the end of April and continued through August. Peak spawning occurred at the beginning of June when average temperatures reached 26°C. Larval fish growth rate, after the transition to exogenous feeding, was 2.3 (SD ± 0.7) mm (total length, TL) per day. Although Potomac River northern snakehead exhibited lower overall growth rates when compared to other populations, these fish demonstrated plasticity in timing of reproduction and rapid larval growth rates. Such life history characteristics likely contribute to the success of northern snakehead in its new environment and limit managers’ options for significant control of its invasion.

Influence of pulsed magnetic field on soybean (Glycine max L.) seed germination, seedling growth and soil microbial population.

Science.gov (United States)

Radhakrishnan, Ramalingam; Kumari, Bollipo Dyana Ranjitha

2013-08-01

The effects of pulsed magnetic field (PMF) treatment of soybean (Glycine max L. cv CO3) seeds were investigated on rate of seed germination, seedling growth, physico-chemical properties of seed leachates and soil microbial population under laboratory conditions. Seeds were exposed to PMF of 1500 nT at 0.1, 1.0 10.0 and 100.0 Hz for 5 h per day for 20 days, induced by enclosure coil systems. Non-treated seeds were considered as controls. All PMF treatments significantly increased the rate of seed germination, while 10 and 100 Hz PMFs showed the most effective response. The 1.0 and 10 Hz PMFs remarkably improved the fresh weight of shoots and roots, leaf area and plant height from seedlings from magnetically-exposed seeds compared to the control, while 10 Hz PMF increased the total soluble sugar, total protein and phenol contents. The leaf chlorophyll a, b and total chlorophyll were higher in PMF (10 and 100 Hz) pretreated plants, as compared to other treatments. In addition, activities of alpha-amylase, acid phosphatase, alkaline phosphatase, nitrate reductase, peroxidase and polyphenoloxidase were increased, while beta-amylase and protease activities were declined in PMF (10 Hz)-exposed soybean plants. Similarly, the capacity of absorbance of water by seeds and electrical conductivity of seed leachates were significantly enhanced by 10 Hz PMF exposure, whereas PMF (10 Hz) pretreated plants did not affect the microbial population in rhizosphere soil. The results suggested the potential of 10 Hz PMF treatment to enhance the germination and seedling growth of soybean.

Mortality Reduction, Fertility Decline, and Population Growth: Toward a More Relevant Assessment of the Relationships among Them. World Bank Staff Working Papers No. 686 and Population and Development Series No. 11.

Science.gov (United States)

Gwatkin, Davidson

One of a special series on population change and development, this paper focuses primarily on the programs and policies responsible for mortality or fertility change, rather than on the growth impact of a mortality or fertility change per se. The first portion of the document examines three models for assessing the population growth implications…

Population growth and the environment: Can we eat the cake and have it?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shmuel Amir

1999-01-01

Full Text Available Continuous population growth and the concomitant maintenance of a growth sustaining environment are not in conflict only if the rates of both economic and biological processes are slowed down steadily. For this to happen, individual and social impatience-lowering adaptations should be adopted, and the capital of the system, both economic and natural, has to be redistributed among the system interacting components to result in an ever more complex organizational web. In addition, these factors have to corroborate with a third element, the incorporation of an arsenal of varied technological innovations that improves the use of existing stocks.

Comparing two Poisson populations sequentially: an application

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Halteman, E.J.

1986-01-01

Rocky Flats Plant in Golden, Colorado monitors each of its employees for radiation exposure. Excess exposure is detected by comparing the means of two Poisson populations. A sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) is proposed as a replacement for the fixed sample normal approximation test. A uniformly most efficient SPRT exists, however logistics suggest using a truncated SPRT. The truncated SPRT is evaluated in detail and shown to possess large potential savings in average time spent by employees in the monitoring process

A population growth trend analysis for Neotricula aperta, the snail intermediate host of Schistosoma mekongi, after construction of the Pak-Mun dam.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stephen W Attwood

2013-11-01

Full Text Available The Pak-Mun dam is a controversial hydro-power project on the Mun River in Northeast Thailand. The dam is sited in a habitat of the freshwater snail Neotricula aperta, which is the intermediate host for the parasitic blood-fluke Schistosoma mekongi causing Mekong schistosomiasis in humans in Cambodia and Laos. Few data are available which can be used to assess the effects of water resource development on N. aperta. The aim of this study was to obtain data and to analyze the possible impact of the dam on N. aperta population growth.Estimated population densities were recorded for an N. aperta population in the Mun River 27 km upstream of Pak-Mun, from 1990 to 2011. The Pak-Mul dam began to operate in 1994. Population growth was modeled using a linear mixed model expression of a modified Gompertz stochastic state-space exponential growth model. The N. aperta population was found to be quite stable, with the estimated growth parameter not significantly different from zero. Nevertheless, some marked changes in snail population density were observed which were coincident with changes in dam operation policy.The study found that there has been no marked increase in N. aperta population growth following operation of the Pak-Mun dam. The analysis did indicate a large and statistically significant increase in population density immediately after the dam came into operation; however, this increase was not persistent. The study has provided the first vital baseline data on N. aperta population behavior near to the Pak-Mun dam and suggests that the operation policy of the dam may have an impact on snail population density. Nevertheless, additional studies are required for other N. aperta populations in the Mun River and for an extended time series, to confirm or refine the findings of this work.

World population growth, family planning, and American foreign policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Sharpless, J

1995-01-01

The US decision since the 1960s to link foreign policy with family planning and population control is noteworthy for its intention to change the demographic structure of foreign countries and the magnitude of the initiative. The current population ideologies are part of the legacy of 19th century views on science, morality, and political economy. Strong constraints were placed on US foreign policy since World War II, particularly due to presumptions about the role of developing countries in Cold War ideology. Domestic debates revolved around issues of feminism, birth control, abortion, and family political issues. Since the 1960s, environmental degradation and resource depletion were an added global dimension of US population issues. Between 1935 and 1958 birth control movements evolved from the ideologies of utopian socialists, Malthusians, women's rights activists, civil libertarians, and advocates of sexual freedom. There was a shift from acceptance of birth control to questions about the role of national government in supporting distribution of birth control. Immediately postwar the debates over birth control were outside political circles. The concept of family planning as a middle class family issue shifted the focus from freeing women from the burdens of housework to making women more efficient housewives. Family planning could not be taken as a national policy concern without justification as a major issue, a link to national security, belief in the success of intervention, and a justifiable means of inclusion in public policy. US government involvement began with agricultural education, technological assistance, and economic development that would satisfy the world's growing population. Cold War politics forced population growth as an issue to be considered within the realm of foreign policy and diplomacy. US government sponsored family planning was enthusiastic during 1967-74 but restrained during the 1980s. The 1990s has been an era of redefinition of

Population differentiation in tree-ring growth response of white fir (Abies concolor) to climate: Implications for predicting forest responses to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jensen, Deborah Bowne [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

1993-01-01

Forest succession models and correlative models have predicted 200--650 kilometer shifts in the geographic range of temperate forests and forest species as one response to global climate change. Few studies have investigated whether population differences may effect the response of forest species to climate change. This study examines differences in tree-ring growth, and in the phenotypic plasticity of tree-ring growth in 16-year old white fir, Abies concolor, from ten populations grown in four common gardens in the Sierra Nevada of California. For each population, tree-ring growth was modelled as a function of precipitation and degree-day sums. Tree-ring growth under three scenarios of doubled CO₂ climates was estimated.

A system dynamics feedback control model study of population of "India 2001" and policies for stabilizing growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Patil, M K; Janahanlal, P S

1978-06-01

A mathematical population model is presented and diagrammed. The model is a nonlinear, higher order, self-regulating, goal-seeking system. In other words, the model treats the population system like a biological system which has positive and negative feedbacks. The model incorporates the effects of important economic factors that influence human birth and death rates. It calculates the total population size, which is a determinant of resource usage. It also indicates the demographic response, through a changing birth and death rate, to a changing resource supply. The model is illustrated with Indian population data, disaggregated by age into 15 levels each of which is, in turn, divided into 4 income levels. The effect on population growth of various alternative population policies is analyzed with the goal of stabilizing the population growth quickly without causing undue hardship. Different computer runs of the model are conducted, using different levels of family planning practice, different ages at marriage, and different distributions of income throughout the country. The policy which would result in the lowest population for the year 2001 is 1 in which family planning acceptance levels would increase from 15% in 1975 to 60% in 1980 and 100% from 1990 on. However, there is widespread opposition to this policy. It is felt that a much slower rise in family planning acceptance would be a more acceptable policy for stabilizing population in India.

A fuzzy mathematical model of West Java population with logistic growth model

Science.gov (United States)

Nurkholipah, N. S.; Amarti, Z.; Anggriani, N.; Supriatna, A. K.

2018-03-01

In this paper we develop a mathematics model of population growth in the West Java Province Indonesia. The model takes the form as a logistic differential equation. We parameterize the model using several triples of data, and choose the best triple which has the smallest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The resulting model is able to predict the historical data with a high accuracy and it also able to predict the future of population number. Predicting the future population is among the important factors that affect the consideration is preparing a good management for the population. Several experiment are done to look at the effect of impreciseness in the data. This is done by considering a fuzzy initial value to the crisp model assuming that the model propagates the fuzziness of the independent variable to the dependent variable. We assume here a triangle fuzzy number representing the impreciseness in the data. We found that the fuzziness may disappear in the long-term. Other scenarios also investigated, such as the effect of fuzzy parameters to the crisp initial value of the population. The solution of the model is obtained numerically using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta scheme.

Modeling Conformal Growth in Photonic Crystals and Comparing to Experiment

Science.gov (United States)

Brzezinski, Andrew; Chen, Ying-Chieh; Wiltzius, Pierre; Braun, Paul

2008-03-01

Conformal growth, e.g. atomic layer deposition (ALD), of materials such as silicon and TiO2 on three dimensional (3D) templates is important for making photonic crystals. However, reliable calculations of optical properties as a function of the conformal growth, such as the optical band structure, are hampered by difficultly in accurately assessing a deposited material's spatial distribution. A widely used approximation ignores ``pinch off'' of precursor gas and assumes complete template infilling. Another approximation results in non-uniform growth velocity by employing iso-intensity surfaces of the 3D interference pattern used to create the template. We have developed an accurate model of conformal growth in arbitrary 3D periodic structures, allowing for arbitrary surface orientation. Results are compared with the above approximations and with experimentally fabricated photonic crystals. We use an SU8 polymer template created by 4-beam interference lithography, onto which various amounts of TiO2 are grown by ALD. Characterization is performed by analysis of cross-sectional scanning electron micrographs and by solid angle resolved optical spectroscopy.

Strong adverse effect of epidermal growth factor receptor 2 overexpression on prognosis of patients with invasive lobular breast cancer: a comparative study with invasive ductal breast cancer in Chinese population.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tong; Ma, Yuanyuan; Wang, Liang; Liu, Hong; Chen, Meixuan; Niu, Ruifang

2015-08-01

The data on the outcome of breast invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) are conflicting. In addition, the prognostic effect of molecular subtypes on ILC remains unclear. In this study, the clinicopathological and prognostic data between 269 ILC and 816 invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC) cases in a Chinese population were extensively compared, with a median follow-up time of 7.8 years. Compared with the IDC group, ILC tumors had more lymph node invasion, hormonal receptor positivity, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) negativity. ILC patients showed overall survival (OS) and recurrence/metastasis-free survival (RFS) rates similar to those of IDC patients but exhibited worse disease-free survival (DFS) rate because of the higher rate of contralateral breast cancer (BC). Further analysis showed that OS, RFS, and DFS were similar between ILC and IDC patients in the subgroups of luminal A and triple-negative BC with HER2 negativity but were worse in ILC patients than those in IDC patients in the subgroups of luminal B and HER2 overexpression with positive HER2 expression. Multivariate analysis indicated HER2 positivity as an independent risk factor for OS, RFS, and DFS of ILC patients, which increased the risk in the ILC group than that in IDC group. The interaction of HER2 and ILC was also defined as an independent risk factor for OS, RFS, and DFS of the entire population. In conclusion, overexpression of HER2 exhibited stronger negative effect on the prognosis of ILC patients than that in IDC patients, suggesting that treatment targeting HER2 is crucial for this BC subgroup.

[Spatial pattern analysis and associations of Quercus aquifolioides population at different growth stages in Southeast Tibet, China].

Science.gov (United States)

Shen, Zhi-qiang; Hua, Min; Dan, Qu; Lu, Jie; Fang, Jiang-ping

2016-02-01

This article analyzed the spatial pattern and its correlation of Quercus aquifolioides, Southeast Tibet at different growing stages by using Ripley' s L function in the method of point pattern, analysis. The results showed the diameter structure of Q. aquifolioides population in Southeast Tibet followed a 'single peak' shape and the saplings and medium trees predominated in number in the whole population. The population had a high regeneration rate and was of increase type. In the growth process of Q. aquifolioides from saplings to large trees, saplings and medium trees showed aggregation distribution at.small scale, while large trees showed basically random distribution at whole scale. There was significant correlation between saplings with medium or large trees at small scale, however, there was no correlation between medium and large trees. In the growth process of Q. aquifolioides population from saplings, medium trees to large trees, its spatial pattern developed from aggregative distribution to random distribution. The natural regeneration of Q. aquifolioides population was affected not only by interspecific competition, but also by intraspecific competition. In the similar natural environment, the most important factors affecting the spatial pattern of Q. aquifoioides population were its own biological and ecological characteristics.

Heteroresistance at the single-cell level: adapting to antibiotic stress through a population-based strategy and growth-controlled interphenotypic coordination.

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Wang, Xiaorong; Kang, Yu; Luo, Chunxiong; Zhao, Tong; Liu, Lin; Jiang, Xiangdan; Fu, Rongrong; An, Shuchang; Chen, Jichao; Jiang, Ning; Ren, Lufeng; Wang, Qi; Baillie, J Kenneth; Gao, Zhancheng; Yu, Jun

2014-02-11

Heteroresistance refers to phenotypic heterogeneity of microbial clonal populations under antibiotic stress, and it has been thought to be an allocation of a subset of "resistant" cells for surviving in higher concentrations of antibiotic. The assumption fits the so-called bet-hedging strategy, where a bacterial population "hedges" its "bet" on different phenotypes to be selected by unpredicted environment stresses. To test this hypothesis, we constructed a heteroresistance model by introducing a blaCTX-M-14 gene (coding for a cephalosporin hydrolase) into a sensitive Escherichia coli strain. We confirmed heteroresistance in this clone and that a subset of the cells expressed more hydrolase and formed more colonies in the presence of ceftriaxone (exhibited stronger "resistance"). However, subsequent single-cell-level investigation by using a microfluidic device showed that a subset of cells with a distinguishable phenotype of slowed growth and intensified hydrolase expression emerged, and they were not positively selected but increased their proportion in the population with ascending antibiotic concentrations. Therefore, heteroresistance--the gradually decreased colony-forming capability in the presence of antibiotic--was a result of a decreased growth rate rather than of selection for resistant cells. Using a mock strain without the resistance gene, we further demonstrated the existence of two nested growth-centric feedback loops that control the expression of the hydrolase and maximize population growth in various antibiotic concentrations. In conclusion, phenotypic heterogeneity is a population-based strategy beneficial for bacterial survival and propagation through task allocation and interphenotypic collaboration, and the growth rate provides a critical control for the expression of stress-related genes and an essential mechanism in responding to environmental stresses. Heteroresistance is essentially phenotypic heterogeneity, where a population

Effects of Population Growth and Climate Variability on Sustainable Groundwater in Mali, West Africa

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Alexandra Lutz

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Groundwater is increasingly relied on as a source of potable water in developing countries, but factors such as population growth, development, and climate variability, pose potential challenges for ongoing sustainable supply. The effect of these factors on the groundwater system was considered in four scenarios using a numerical model to represent the Bani area of Mali, West Africa. By 2040, population growth, climate variability, and development as urbanization, agriculture, and industry creates scenarios in which groundwater extraction is an increasingly larger percentage of the groundwater system. Consumption from agriculture and industry increases extraction rates from less than 1 to 3.8% of mean annual precipitation, which will likely affect the groundwater system. For instance, concentrated pumping in local areas may result in water level declines. The results of this study contribute to an ongoing evaluation of sustainable groundwater resources in West Africa.

Controlling the Growth of Future LEO Debris Populations with Active Debris Removal

Science.gov (United States)

Liou, J.-C.; Johnson, N. L.; Hill, N. M.

2008-01-01

Active debris removal (ADR) was suggested as a potential means to remediate the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment as early as the 1980s. The reasons ADR has not become practical are due to its technical difficulties and the high cost associated with the approach. However, as the LEO debris populations continue to increase, ADR may be the only option to preserve the near-Earth environment for future generations. An initial study was completed in 2007 to demonstrate that a simple ADR target selection criterion could be developed to reduce the future debris population growth. The present paper summarizes a comprehensive study based on more realistic simulation scenarios, including fragments generated from the 2007 Fengyun-1C event, mitigation measures, and other target selection options. The simulations were based on the NASA long-term orbital debris projection model, LEGEND. A scenario, where at the end of mission lifetimes, spacecraft and upper stages were moved to 25-year decay orbits, was adopted as the baseline environment for comparison. Different annual removal rates and different ADR target selection criteria were tested, and the resulting 200-year future environment projections were compared with the baseline scenario. Results of this parametric study indicate that (1) an effective removal strategy can be developed based on the mass and collision probability of each object as the selection criterion, and (2) the LEO environment can be stabilized in the next 200 years with an ADR removal rate of five objects per year.

Population growth of Yellowstone grizzly bears: Uncertainty and future monitoring

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Harris, R.B.; White, Gary C.; Schwartz, C.C.; Haroldson, M.A.

2007-01-01

Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem of the US Rocky Mountains have recently increased in numbers, but remain vulnerable due to isolation from other populations and predicted reductions in favored food resources. Harris et al. (2006) projected how this population might fare in the future under alternative survival rates, and in doing so estimated the rate of population growth, 1983–2002. We address issues that remain from that earlier work: (1) the degree of uncertainty surrounding our estimates of the rate of population change (λ); (2) the effect of correlation among demographic parameters on these estimates; and (3) how a future monitoring system using counts of females accompanied by cubs might usefully differentiate between short-term, expected, and inconsequential fluctuations versus a true change in system state. We used Monte Carlo re-sampling of beta distributions derived from the demographic parameters used by Harris et al. (2006) to derive distributions of λ during 1983–2002 given our sampling uncertainty. Approximate 95% confidence intervals were 0.972–1.096 (assuming females with unresolved fates died) and 1.008–1.115 (with unresolved females censored at last contact). We used well-supported models of Haroldson et al. (2006) and Schwartz et al. (2006a,b,c) to assess the strength of correlations among demographic processes and the effect of omitting them in projection models. Incorporating correlations among demographic parameters yielded point estimates of λ that were nearly identical to those from the earlier model that omitted correlations, but yielded wider confidence intervals surrounding λ. Finally, we suggest that fitting linear and quadratic curves to the trend suggested by the estimated number of females with cubs in the ecosystem, and using AICc model weights to infer population sizes and λ provides an objective means to monitoring approximate population trajectories in addition to demographic

Nonlinear Stochastic Modelling of Antimicrobial resistance in Bacterial Populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Philipsen, Kirsten Riber

-mutator population. The growth rates of the two populations were initially compared by a maximum likelihood approach and the growth rates were found to be equal. Thereafter a model for the competing growth was developed. The models showthat mutatorswill obtain a higher fitness by adapting faster to an environment...... an important role for the evolution of resistance. When growing under stressed conditions, such as in the presence of antibiotics, mutators are considered to have an advantages in comparison to non-mutators. This has been supported by a mathematical model for competing growth between a mutator and a non...

Two types of population migration in China: a comparative study.

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Gu, S

1992-01-01

The patterns, extent of, and trends in permanent and temporary migration in China are presented. Permanency is determined by a household registration transfer. Floaters are considered temporary migrants. The regulatory history of migration is given: restrictions prior to 1978 on temporary migration and relaxation of restrictions after 1978. Permanent migration was greatest in the 1950s. Between 1949 and 1960, there were 73.37 million permanent migrants to urban areas from rural areas out of an urban population increase of 105.83 million. During the 1960 and 1970s, urban population was lowered. During the Cultural Revolution, emigration surpassed immigration and the nonagricultural population increased in cities and towns. Between 1976 and 1987, the natural growth of the urban population declined, and nonagricultural population increased from 57.65 million to 204.057 million in cities and towns (1949-88). The trends in the floating population show the lowest ratio of temporary migrants to permanent migrants between 1984 and 1987 to be in Shenyang (15:100); the highest was in Guangzhou (33:100) with an average of 23:100. When the ratio is considered as 20:100 in cities, the average floating population is calculated at 52.87 million in 1987 out of 264.354 million total urban population. 70% were from rural areas. In a comparison of six provinces, Hebei had the lowest percentage of floaters (19%) and Shandong the highest (40%). In country-governed towns, and estimated temporary in-migrants numbered 9.48 million; 8/86 million were floaters. During peak migration, temporary migration averages 50 million/day and permanent migration averages 50,000/day. The primary difference between floaters and permanent migrants is that floaters keep their ties to the land. Surplus labor drives temporary migration, and as such is a release valve. Permanent migration, which is government-controlled, does not allow as much flexibility in adapting to socioeconomic conditions. The sectors

Curbing population growth in Republic of Korea.

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Woo-hyun, S

1983-01-26

significantly. The planned parenthood program, the major thrust of the government's population policy, has proven to be effective. The average fertility rate of Korean women has declined from 6 in 1960 to 2.7 in 1982. The net population increase had dropped from 2.84% in 1960 to 1.67% in 1980. Over the 1962-81 period, the government spent US$145.5 million on planned parenthood programs. The preference for sons continues despite the government slogan, "stop at two, regardless of sex." Only 41% of women with only 2 daughters practice birth control, compared with 71% of those with only 2 sons. There is also a fertility gap between urban women (2.4) and rural women (3.3).

Bot fly parasitism of the red-backed vole: host survival, infection risk, and population growth.

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Lemaître, Jérôme; Fortin, Daniel; Montiglio, Pierre-Olivier; Darveau, Marcel

2009-03-01

Parasites can play an important role in the dynamics of host populations, but empirical evidence remains sparse. We investigated the role of bot fly (Cuterebra spp.) parasitism in red-backed voles (Myodes gapperi) by first assessing the impacts of the parasite on the probability of vole survival under stressful conditions as well as on the reproductive activity of females. We then identified the main factors driving both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies inside red-backed voles. Finally, we evaluated the impacts of bot fly prevalence on the growth rate of vole populations between mid-July and mid-August. Thirty-six populations of red-backed voles were sampled in the boreal forest of Québec, Canada. The presence and the abundance of parasites in voles, two host life history traits (sex and body condition), three indices of habitat complexity (tree basal area, sapling basal area, coarse woody debris volume), and vole abundance were considered in models evaluating the effects of bot flies on host populations. We found that the probability of survival of red-backed voles in live traps decreased with bot fly infection. Both the individual risk of infection and the abundance of bot flies in red-backed voles were driven mainly by vole abundance rather than by the two host life history traits or the three variables of habitat complexity. Parasitism had population consequences: bot fly prevalence was linked to a decrease in short-term growth rate of vole populations over the summer. We found that bot flies have the potential to reduce survival of red-backed voles, an effect that may apply to large portions of populations.

Identification of QTLs for shoot and root growth under ionic-osmotic stress in Lotus, using a RIL population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Quero, Gastón; Gutíerrez, Lucía; Lascano, Ramiro

2014-01-01

The genus Lotus includes a group of forage legume species including genotypes of agronomic interest and model species. In this work, an experimental hydroponic growth system allowed the discrimination of growth responses to ionic-osmotic stress in a population of recombinant inbred lines (RILs...

Crowded growth leads to the spontaneous evolution of semistable coexistence in laboratory yeast populations.

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Frenkel, Evgeni M; McDonald, Michael J; Van Dyken, J David; Kosheleva, Katya; Lang, Gregory I; Desai, Michael M

2015-09-08

Identifying the mechanisms that create and maintain biodiversity is a central challenge in biology. Stable diversification of microbial populations often requires the evolution of differences in resource utilization. Alternatively, coexistence can be maintained by specialization to exploit spatial heterogeneity in the environment. Here, we report spontaneous diversification maintained by a related but distinct mechanism: crowding avoidance. During experimental evolution of laboratory Saccharomyces cerevisiae populations, we observed the repeated appearance of "adherent" (A) lineages able to grow as a dispersed film, in contrast to their crowded "bottom-dweller" (B) ancestors. These two types stably coexist because dispersal reduces interference competition for nutrients among kin, at the cost of a slower maximum growth rate. This tradeoff causes the frequencies of the two types to oscillate around equilibrium over the course of repeated cycles of growth, crowding, and dispersal. However, further coevolution of the A and B types can perturb and eventually destroy their coexistence over longer time scales. We introduce a simple mathematical model of this "semistable" coexistence, which explains the interplay between ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Because crowded growth generally limits nutrient access in biofilms, the mechanism we report here may be broadly important in maintaining diversity in these natural environments.

A millifluidic study of cell-to-cell heterogeneity in growth-rate and cell-division capability in populations of isogenic cells of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii.

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Shima P Damodaran

Full Text Available To address possible cell-to-cell heterogeneity in growth dynamics of isogenic cell populations of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, we developed a millifluidic drop-based device that not only allows the analysis of populations grown from single cells over periods of a week, but is also able to sort and collect drops of interest, containing viable and healthy cells, which can be used for further experimentation. In this study, we used isogenic algal cells that were first synchronized in mixotrophic growth conditions. We show that these synchronized cells, when placed in droplets and kept in mixotrophic growth conditions, exhibit mostly homogeneous growth statistics, but with two distinct subpopulations: a major population with a short doubling-time (fast-growers and a significant subpopulation of slowly dividing cells (slow-growers. These observations suggest that algal cells from an isogenic population may be present in either of two states, a state of restricted division and a state of active division. When isogenic cells were allowed to propagate for about 1000 generations on solid agar plates, they displayed an increased heterogeneity in their growth dynamics. Although we could still identify the original populations of slow- and fast-growers, drops inoculated with a single progenitor cell now displayed a wider diversity of doubling-times. Moreover, populations dividing with the same growth-rate often reached different cell numbers in stationary phase, suggesting that the progenitor cells differed in the number of cell divisions they could undertake. We discuss possible explanations for these cell-to-cell heterogeneities in growth dynamics, such as mutations, differential aging or stochastic variations in metabolites and macromolecules yielding molecular switches, in the light of single-cell heterogeneities that have been reported among isogenic populations of other eu- and prokaryotes.

Understanding Population.

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Mothner, Ira

Activities and concerns of Ford Foundation supported population research and training centers are described in this report. The centers are concerned with population growth, consequences of growth for human welfare, forces that determine family planning, interrelations among population variables, economics of contraceptive distribution, and…

Risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to the background population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helleberg, Marie; Gerstoft, Jan; Afzal, Shoaib

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The relative impact of immune deficiency and lifestyle-related factors on risk of cancer in the HIV-infected population is controversial. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with smoking, being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency. METHODS...... of cancer associated with smoking and with being HIV-infected were 27 and 49%, respectively. For cancers not strongly related to smoking or viral infections, the PAFs associated with being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency were 0%. CONCLUSION: The risk of cancer is increased in HIV patients compared......: In a Danish, nationwide, population-based cohort study (1995-2011), incidences of cancer were compared between an HIV-infected cohort and a population-based matched cohort in analyses stratified on cancer category, smoking status and for HIV patients: low CD4 cell count. RESULTS: We included 3503 HIV patients...

Feeding the world's increasing population while limiting climate change impacts; decoupling agriculture' s N2O and CH4 emissions from population growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Beek, C.L.; Meerburg, B.G.; Schils, R.L.M.; Verhagen, J.; Kuikman, P.J.

2010-01-01

The global demand for agricultural products, including food, is rapidly increasing due to population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. The required increase in agricultural production is predominantly to be achieved in countries with relatively low agricultural production levels at present.

Spatial analysis of cattle and shoat population in Ethiopia: growth trend, distribution and market access.

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Leta, Samson; Mesele, Frehiwot

2014-01-01

The livestock subsector has an enormous contribution to Ethiopia's national economy and livelihoods of many Ethiopians. The subsector contributes about 16.5% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 35.6% of the agricultural GDP. It also contributes 15% of export earnings and 30% of agricultural employment. The livestock subsector currently support and sustain livelihoods for 80% of all rural population. The GDP of livestock related activities valued at 59 billion birr. Ethiopian livestock population trends, distribution and marketing vary considerably across space and time due to a variety of reasons. This study was aimed to assess cattle and shoat population growth trend, distribution and their access to market. Regression analysis was used to assess the cattle and shoat population growth trend and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques were used to determine the spatial distribution of cattle and shoats, and their relative access to market. The data sets used are agricultural census (2001/02) and annual CSA agricultural sample survey (1995/96 to 2012/13). In the past eighteen years, the livestock population namely cattle, sheep and goat grew from 54.5 million to over 103.5 million with average annual increment of 3.4 million. The current average national cattle, sheep and goat population per km(2) are estimated to be 71, 33 and 29 respectively (excluding Addis Ababa, Afar and Somali regions). From the total livestock population the country owns about 46% cattle, 43% sheep and 40% goats are reared within 10 km radius from major livestock market centres and all-weather roads. On the other hand, three fourth of the country's land mass which comprises 15% of the cattle, 20% of the sheep and 21% of goat population is not accessible to market (greater than 30 km from major livestock market centres). It is found that the central highland regions account for the largest share of livestock population and also more accessible to market. Defining the

Carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth: a multivariate and causality analysis for Ghana, 1971-2013.

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Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

2016-07-01

In this study, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, energy use, and population growth in Ghana was investigated from 1971 to 2013 by comparing the vector error correction model (VECM) and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL). Prior to testing for Granger causality based on VECM, the study tested for unit roots, Johansen's multivariate co-integration and performed a variance decomposition analysis using Cholesky's technique. Evidence from the variance decomposition shows that 21 % of future shocks in carbon dioxide emissions are due to fluctuations in energy use, 8 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in GDP, and 6 % of future shocks are due to fluctuations in population. There was evidence of bidirectional causality running from energy use to GDP and a unidirectional causality running from carbon dioxide emissions to energy use, carbon dioxide emissions to GDP, carbon dioxide emissions to population, and population to energy use. Evidence from the long-run elasticities shows that a 1 % increase in population in Ghana will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.72 %. There was evidence of short-run equilibrium relationship running from energy use to carbon dioxide emissions and GDP to carbon dioxide emissions. As a policy implication, the addition of renewable energy and clean energy technologies into Ghana's energy mix can help mitigate climate change and its impact in the future.

Nutrient foraging strategies are associated with productivity and population growth in forest shrubs

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, Bram W. G.; Faillace, Cara A.; Lafond, Jonathan J.; Baumgarten, Joni M.; Mozdzer, Thomas J.; Dighton, John; Meiners, Scott J.; Grabosky, Jason C.; Ehrenfeld, Joan G.

2017-01-01

Background and Aims Temperate deciduous forest understoreys are experiencing widespread changes in community composition, concurrent with increases in rates of nitrogen supply. These shifts in plant abundance may be driven by interspecific differences in nutrient foraging (i.e. conservative vs. acquisitive strategies) and, thus, adaptation to contemporary nutrient loading conditions. This study sought to determine if interspecific differences in nutrient foraging could help explain patterns of shrub success and decline in eastern North American forests. Methods Using plants grown in a common garden, fine root traits associated with nutrient foraging were measured for six shrub species. Traits included the mean and skewness of the root diameter distribution, specific root length (SRL), C:N ratio, root tissue density, arbuscular mycorrhizal colonization and foraging precision. Above- and below-ground productivity were also determined for the same plants, and population growth rates were estimated using data from a long-term study of community dynamics. Root traits were compared among species and associations among root traits, measures of productivity and rates of population growth were evaluated. Key Results Species fell into groups having thick or thin root forms, which correspond to conservative vs. acquisitive nutrient foraging strategies. Interspecific variation in root morphology and tissue construction correlated with measures of productivity and rates of cover expansion. Of the four species with acquisitive traits, three were introduced species that have become invasive in recent decades, and the fourth was a weedy native. In contrast, the two species with conservative traits were historically dominant shrubs that have declined in abundance in eastern North American forests. Conclusions In forest understoreys of eastern North America, elevated nutrient availability may impose a filter on species success in addition to above-ground processes such as herbivory

Invader population speeds up life history during colonization

OpenAIRE

Amundsen, Per-Arne; Salonen, Erno; Niva, Teuvo; Gjelland, Karl Øystein; Præbel, Kim; Sandlund, Odd Terje; Knudsen, Rune; Bøhn, Thomas

2012-01-01

We explore the long-term developments in population biology and life history during the invasion and establishment of the fish species vendace Coregonus albula in a subarctic watercourse by comparing life-history traits and molecular genetic estimates between the source and the colonist population. The two populations exhibited highly contrasting life-history strategies. Relative to the source population, the colonist population was characterized by slower somatic growth rates, earlier sexual...

Postdischarge growth and development in a predominantly Hispanic, very low birth weight population.

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Powers, George C; Ramamurthy, Rajam; Schoolfield, John; Matula, Kathleen

2008-12-01

The goals were to assess postdischarge growth and developmental progress of very low birth weight (birth weight: population and to identify predictors for neurodevelopmental impairment at 3 years of age. A cohort of 135 very low birth weight infants (gestational age: 23 to 35 weeks) were monitored to 3 years of age. Maternal and neonatal characteristics, anthropometric z scores, and developmental performance (using corrected age until 24 months) were analyzed collectively and according to gestational age groups. Specific criteria for failure to thrive and microcephaly were used. A characteristic pattern of poor weight gain in the first 12 months was followed by accelerated weight gain starting at 18 months, whereas head growth decreased at 18 months, with recovery beginning at 30 months of age. Infants born at gestational age of growth-impaired at 3 years of age, whereas infants born at gestational age of >or=27 weeks achieved catch-up growth by 30 months of age. Mean developmental scores also decreased in infancy, with improvements in motor development emerging at 18 months and cognitive skills at 30 months. Growth z scores, particularly for head growth, correlated with developmental scores. Infants born at gestational age of growth patterns that coincided with developmental progress in the first 3 years of life. Birth at gestational age of

Population movements to a growth-pole: the case of Hosur, Tamil Nadu.

Science.gov (United States)

Heins, J J; Meijer, E N

1990-08-01

This study examines the characteristics of population growth in Hosur, a small town in Tamil Nadu, India. "A special feature of the population in Hosur is the phenomenon of bachelors living together, mostly young men who have migrated from big cities. Commuting is not important in the mobility pattern of Hosur, less than ten per cent of employees in the industrial areas travelling daily from outside. Only one-third of the non-migrant labour force has access to the more attractive jobs in the modern factories, while short-term wage labour plays an important role in the labour structure of commuters. The demographic future of Hosur is not connected strongly with commuting patterns, but more with the spatial behaviour of the bachelors." excerpt

Imputation of missing genotypes within LD-blocks relying on the basic coalescent and beyond: consideration of population growth and structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Kabisch, Maria; Hamann, Ute; Lorenzo Bermejo, Justo

2017-10-17

Genotypes not directly measured in genetic studies are often imputed to improve statistical power and to increase mapping resolution. The accuracy of standard imputation techniques strongly depends on the similarity of linkage disequilibrium (LD) patterns in the study and reference populations. Here we develop a novel approach for genotype imputation in low-recombination regions that relies on the coalescent and permits to explicitly account for population demographic factors. To test the new method, study and reference haplotypes were simulated and gene trees were inferred under the basic coalescent and also considering population growth and structure. The reference haplotypes that first coalesced with study haplotypes were used as templates for genotype imputation. Computer simulations were complemented with the analysis of real data. Genotype concordance rates were used to compare the accuracies of coalescent-based and standard (IMPUTE2) imputation. Simulations revealed that, in LD-blocks, imputation accuracy relying on the basic coalescent was higher and less variable than with IMPUTE2. Explicit consideration of population growth and structure, even if present, did not practically improve accuracy. The advantage of coalescent-based over standard imputation increased with the minor allele frequency and it decreased with population stratification. Results based on real data indicated that, even in low-recombination regions, further research is needed to incorporate recombination in coalescence inference, in particular for studies with genetically diverse and admixed individuals. To exploit the full potential of coalescent-based methods for the imputation of missing genotypes in genetic studies, further methodological research is needed to reduce computer time, to take into account recombination, and to implement these methods in user-friendly computer programs. Here we provide reproducible code which takes advantage of publicly available software to facilitate