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Sample records for community land model

  1. SMOS brightness temperature assimilation into the Community Land Model

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    D. Rains

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available SMOS (Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity mission brightness temperatures at a single incident angle are assimilated into the Community Land Model (CLM across Australia to improve soil moisture simulations. Therefore, the data assimilation system DasPy is coupled to the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF as well as to the Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM. Brightness temperature climatologies are precomputed to enable the assimilation of brightness temperature anomalies, making use of 6 years of SMOS data (2010–2015. Mean correlation R with in situ measurements increases moderately from 0.61 to 0.68 (11 % for upper soil layers if the root zone is included in the updates. A reduced improvement of 5 % is achieved if the assimilation is restricted to the upper soil layers. Root-zone simulations improve by 7 % when updating both the top layers and root zone, and by 4 % when only updating the top layers. Mean increments and increment standard deviations are compared for the experiments. The long-term assimilation impact is analysed by looking at a set of quantiles computed for soil moisture at each grid cell. Within hydrological monitoring systems, extreme dry or wet conditions are often defined via their relative occurrence, adding great importance to assimilation-induced quantile changes. Although still being limited now, longer L-band radiometer time series will become available and make model output improved by assimilating such data that are more usable for extreme event statistics.

  2. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

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    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2014-02-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  3. Parameterization Improvements and Functional and Structural Advances in Version 4 of the Community Land Model

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    Andrew G. Slater

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available The Community Land Model is the land component of the Community Climate System Model. Here, we describe a broad set of model improvements and additions that have been provided through the CLM development community to create CLM4. The model is extended with a carbon-nitrogen (CN biogeochemical model that is prognostic with respect to vegetation, litter, and soil carbon and nitrogen states and vegetation phenology. An urban canyon model is added and a transient land cover and land use change (LCLUC capability, including wood harvest, is introduced, enabling study of historic and future LCLUC on energy, water, momentum, carbon, and nitrogen fluxes. The hydrology scheme is modified with a revised numerical solution of the Richards equation and a revised ground evaporation parameterization that accounts for litter and within-canopy stability. The new snow model incorporates the SNow and Ice Aerosol Radiation model (SNICAR - which includes aerosol deposition, grain-size dependent snow aging, and vertically-resolved snowpack heating –– as well as new snow cover and snow burial fraction parameterizations. The thermal and hydrologic properties of organic soil are accounted for and the ground column is extended to ~50-m depth. Several other minor modifications to the land surface types dataset, grass and crop optical properties, atmospheric forcing height, roughness length and displacement height, and the disposition of snow-capped runoff are also incorporated.Taken together, these augmentations to CLM result in improved soil moisture dynamics, drier soils, and stronger soil moisture variability. The new model also exhibits higher snow cover, cooler soil temperatures in organic-rich soils, greater global river discharge, and lower albedos over forests and grasslands, all of which are improvements compared to CLM3.5. When CLM4 is run with CN, the mean biogeophysical simulation is slightly degraded because the vegetation structure is prognostic rather

  4. Incorporating remote sensing-based ET estimates into the Community Land Model version 4.5

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    D. Wang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Land surface models bear substantial biases in simulating surface water and energy budgets despite the continuous development and improvement of model parameterizations. To reduce model biases, Parr et al. (2015 proposed a method incorporating satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET products into land surface models. Here we apply this bias correction method to the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5 and test its performance over the conterminous US (CONUS. We first calibrate a relationship between the observational ET from the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM product and the model ET from CLM4.5, and assume that this relationship holds beyond the calibration period. During the validation or application period, a simulation using the default CLM4.5 (CLM is conducted first, and its output is combined with the calibrated observational-vs.-model ET relationship to derive a corrected ET; an experiment (CLMET is then conducted in which the model-generated ET is overwritten with the corrected ET. Using the observations of ET, runoff, and soil moisture content as benchmarks, we demonstrate that CLMET greatly improves the hydrological simulations over most of the CONUS, and the improvement is stronger in the eastern CONUS than the western CONUS and is strongest over the Southeast CONUS. For any specific region, the degree of the improvement depends on whether the relationship between observational and model ET remains time-invariant (a fundamental hypothesis of the Parr et al. (2015 method and whether water is the limiting factor in places where ET is underestimated. While the bias correction method improves hydrological estimates without improving the physical parameterization of land surface models, results from this study do provide guidance for physically based model development effort.

  5. Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) Developer's Guide

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    Hoffman, FM

    2004-12-21

    This document describes the guidelines adopted for software development of the Community Land Model (CLM) and serves as a reference to the entire code base of the released version of the model. The version of the code described here is Version 3.0 which was released in the summer of 2004. This document, the Community Land Model Version 3.0 (CLM3.0) User's Guide (Vertenstein et al., 2004), the Technical Description of the Community Land Model (CLM) (Oleson et al., 2004), and the Community Land Model's Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (CLM-DGVM): Technical Description and User's Guide (Levis et al., 2004) provide the developer, user, or researcher with details of implementation, instructions for using the model, a scientific description of the model, and a scientific description of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model integrated with CLM respectively. The CLM is a single column (snow-soil-vegetation) biogeophysical model of the land surface which can be run serially (on a laptop or personal computer) or in parallel (using distributed or shared memory processors or both) on both vector and scalar computer architectures. Written in Fortran 90, CLM can be run offline (i.e., run in isolation using stored atmospheric forcing data), coupled to an atmospheric model (e.g., the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM)), or coupled to a climate system model (e.g., the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3)) through a flux coupler (e.g., Coupler 6 (CPL6)). When coupled, CLM exchanges fluxes of energy, water, and momentum with the atmosphere. The horizontal land surface heterogeneity is represented by a nested subgrid hierarchy composed of gridcells, landunits, columns, and plant functional types (PFTs). This hierarchical representation is reflected in the data structures used by the model code. Biophysical processes are simulated for each subgrid unit (landunit, column, and PFT) independently, and prognostic variables are maintained for each subgrid unit

  6. Inverse modeling of hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in the Community Land Model

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    Sun, Y.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Tian, F.; Leung, L. Ruby

    2013-12-01

    This study demonstrates the possibility of inverting hydrologic parameters using surface flux and runoff observations in version 4 of the Community Land Model (CLM4). Previous studies showed that surface flux and runoff calculations are sensitive to major hydrologic parameters in CLM4 over different watersheds, and illustrated the necessity and possibility of parameter calibration. Both deterministic least-square fitting and stochastic Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)-Bayesian inversion approaches are evaluated by applying them to CLM4 at selected sites with different climate and soil conditions. The unknowns to be estimated include surface and subsurface runoff generation parameters and vadose zone soil water parameters. We find that using model parameters calibrated by the sampling-based stochastic inversion approaches provides significant improvements in the model simulations compared to using default CLM4 parameter values, and that as more information comes in, the predictive intervals (ranges of posterior distributions) of the calibrated parameters become narrower. In general, parameters that are identified to be significant through sensitivity analyses and statistical tests are better calibrated than those with weak or nonlinear impacts on flux or runoff observations. Temporal resolution of observations has larger impacts on the results of inverse modeling using heat flux data than runoff data. Soil and vegetation cover have important impacts on parameter sensitivities, leading to different patterns of posterior distributions of parameters at different sites. Overall, the MCMC-Bayesian inversion approach effectively and reliably improves the simulation of CLM under different climates and environmental conditions. Bayesian model averaging of the posterior estimates with different reference acceptance probabilities can smooth the posterior distribution and provide more reliable parameter estimates, but at the expense of wider uncertainty bounds.

  7. Investigating the climate and carbon cycle impacts of CMIP6 Land Use and Land Cover Change in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2)

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    Lawrence, P.; Lawrence, D. M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    For the next round of CMIP6 climate simulations there are new historical and SSP - RCP land use and land cover change (LULCC) data sets that have been compiled through the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). The new time series data include new functionality following lessons learned through CMIP5 project and include new developments in the Community Land Model (CLM5) that will be used in all the CESM2 simulations of CMIP6. These changes include representing explicit crop modeling and better forest representation through the extended to 12 land units of the Global Land Model (GLM). To include this new information in CESM2 and CLM5 simulations new transient land surface data sets have been generated for the historical period 1850 - 2015 and for preliminary SSP - RCP paired future scenarios. The new data sets use updated MODIS Land Cover, Vegetation Continuous Fields, Leaf Area Index and Albedo to describe Primary and Secondary, Forested and Non Forested land units, as well as Rangelands and Pasture. Current day crop distributions are taken from the MIRCA2000 crop data set as done with the CLM 4.5 crop model and used to guide historical and future crop distributions. Preliminary "land only" simulations with CLM5 have been performed for the historical period and for the SSP1-RCP2.6 and SSP3-RCP7 land use and land cover change time series data. Equivalent no land use and land cover change simulations have been run for these periods under the same meteorological forcing data. The "land only" simulations use GSWP3 historical atmospheric forcing data from 1850 to 2010 and then time increasing RCP 8.5 atmospheric CO2 and climate anomalies on top of the current day GSWP3 atmospheric forcing data from 2011 to 2100. The offline simulations provide a basis to evaluate the surface climate, carbon cycle and crop production impacts of changing land use and land cover for each of these periods. To further evaluate the impacts of the new CLM5 model and the CMIP6 land

  8. On Approaches to Analyze the Sensitivity of Simulated Hydrologic Fluxes to Model Parameters in the Community Land Model

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    Jie Bao

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Effective sensitivity analysis approaches are needed to identify important parameters or factors and their uncertainties in complex Earth system models composed of multi-phase multi-component phenomena and multiple biogeophysical-biogeochemical processes. In this study, the impacts of 10 hydrologic parameters in the Community Land Model on simulations of runoff and latent heat flux are evaluated using data from a watershed. Different metrics, including residual statistics, the Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient, and log mean square error, are used as alternative measures of the deviations between the simulated and field observed values. Four sensitivity analysis (SA approaches, including analysis of variance based on the generalized linear model, generalized cross validation based on the multivariate adaptive regression splines model, standardized regression coefficients based on a linear regression model, and analysis of variance based on support vector machine, are investigated. Results suggest that these approaches show consistent measurement of the impacts of major hydrologic parameters on response variables, but with differences in the relative contributions, particularly for the secondary parameters. The convergence behaviors of the SA with respect to the number of sampling points are also examined with different combinations of input parameter sets and output response variables and their alternative metrics. This study helps identify the optimal SA approach, provides guidance for the calibration of the Community Land Model parameters to improve the model simulations of land surface fluxes, and approximates the magnitudes to be adjusted in the parameter values during parametric model optimization.

  9. Improving the representation of river-groundwater interactions in land surface modeling at the regional scale: Observational evidence and parameterization applied in the Community Land Model

    KAUST Repository

    Zampieri, Matteo

    2012-02-01

    Groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, included in many land surface models to provide a lower boundary condition for soil moisture, which in turn plays a key role in the land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions and the ecosystem dynamics. In regional-scale climate applications land surface models (LSMs) are commonly coupled to atmospheric models to close the surface energy, mass and carbon balance. LSMs in these applications are used to resolve the momentum, heat, water and carbon vertical fluxes, accounting for the effect of vegetation, soil type and other surface parameters, while lack of adequate resolution prevents using them to resolve horizontal sub-grid processes. Specifically, LSMs resolve the large-scale runoff production associated with infiltration excess and sub-grid groundwater convergence, but they neglect the effect from loosing streams to groundwater. Through the analysis of observed data of soil moisture obtained from the Oklahoma Mesoscale Network stations and land surface temperature derived from MODIS we provide evidence that the regional scale soil moisture and surface temperature patterns are affected by the rivers. This is demonstrated on the basis of simulations from a land surface model (i.e., Community Land Model - CLM, version 3.5). We show that the model cannot reproduce the features of the observed soil moisture and temperature spatial patterns that are related to the underlying mechanism of reinfiltration of river water to groundwater. Therefore, we implement a simple parameterization of this process in CLM showing the ability to reproduce the soil moisture and surface temperature spatial variabilities that relate to the river distribution at regional scale. The CLM with this new parameterization is used to evaluate impacts of the improved representation of river-groundwater interactions on the simulated water cycle parameters and the surface energy budget at the regional scale. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  10. Simulation of Soil Frost and Thaw Fronts Dynamics with Community Land Model 4.5

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    Gao, J.; Xie, Z.

    2016-12-01

    Freeze-thaw processes in soils, including changes in frost and thaw fronts (FTFs) , are important physical processes. The movement of FTFs affects soil water and thermal characteristics, as well as energy and water exchanges between land surface and the atmosphere, and then the land surface hydrothermal process. In this study, a two-directional freeze and thaw algorithm for simulating FTFs is incorporated into the community land surface model CLM4.5, which is called CLM4.5-FTF. The simulated FTFs depth and soil temperature of CLM4.5-FTF compared well with the observed data both in D66 station (permafrost) and Hulugou station (seasonally frozen soil). Because the soil temperature profile within a soil layer can be estimated according to the position of FTFs, CLM4.5 performed better in soil temperature simulation. Permafrost and seasonally frozen ground conditions in China from 1980 to 2010 were simulated using the CLM4.5-FTF. Numerical experiments show that the spatial distribution of simulated maximum frost depth by CLM4.5-FTF has seasonal variation obviously. Significant positive active-layer depth trends for permafrost regions and negative maximum freezing depth trends for seasonal frozen soil regions are simulated in response to positive air temperature trends except west of Black Sea.

  11. Initializing carbon cycle predictions from the Community Land Model by assimilating global biomass observations

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    Fox, A. M.; Hoar, T. J.; Smith, W. K.; Moore, D. J.

    2017-12-01

    The locations and longevity of terrestrial carbon sinks remain uncertain, however it is clear that in order to predict long-term climate changes the role of the biosphere in surface energy and carbon balance must be understood and incorporated into earth system models (ESMs). Aboveground biomass, the amount of carbon stored in vegetation, is a key component of the terrestrial carbon cycle, representing the balance of uptake through gross primary productivity (GPP), losses from respiration, senescence and mortality over hundreds of years. The best predictions of current and future land-atmosphere fluxes are likely from the integration of process-based knowledge contained in models and information from observations of changes in carbon stocks using data assimilation (DA). By exploiting long times series, it is possible to accurately detect variability and change in carbon cycle dynamics through monitoring ecosystem states, for example biomass derived from vegetation optical depth (VOD), and use this information to initialize models before making predictions. To make maximum use of information about the current state of global ecosystems when using models we have developed a system that combines the Community Land Model (CLM) with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), a community tool for ensemble DA. This DA system is highly innovative in its complexity, completeness and capabilities. Here we described a series of activities, using both Observation System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs) and real observations, that have allowed us to quantify the potential impact of assimilating VOD data into CLM-DART on future land-atmosphere fluxes. VOD data are particularly suitable to use in this activity due to their long temporal coverage and appropriate scale when combined with CLM, but their absolute values rely on many assumptions. Therefore, we have had to assess the implications of the VOD retrieval algorithms, with an emphasis on detecting uncertainty due to

  12. Validation on wheat response to irrigation, CO2 and nitrogen fertilization in the Community Land Model

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    Lu, Y.

    2016-12-01

    Wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in soil carbon balance, and land-atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Understanding whether the Community Land Model (CLM) appropriate response to elevated CO2 and different levels of nitrogen fertilization and irrigation is a crucial question. We participated the AgMIP-wheat project and run 72 simulations at Maricopa spring wheat FACE sites and five winter wheat sites in North America forcing with site observed meteorology data. After calibration on the phenology, carbon allocation, and soil hydrology parameters, wheat in CLM45 has reasonable response to irrigation and elevated CO2. However, wheat in CLM45 has no response to low or high N fertilization because the low amount of N fertilization is sufficient for wheat growth in CLM45. We plan to further extend the same simulations for CLM5 (will release in Fall 2016), which has substantial improvements on soil hydrology (improved soil evaporation and plant hydraulic parameterization) and nitrogen dynamics (flexible leaf CN ratio and Vcmax25, plant pays for carbon to get nitrogen). We will evaluate the uncertainties of wheat response to nitrogen fertilization, irrigation, CO2 due to model improvements.

  13. Winter wheat response to irrigation, nitrogen fertilization, and cold hazards in the Community Land Model 5

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    Lu, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Winter wheat is a staple crop for global food security, and is the dominant vegetation cover for a significant fraction of earth's croplands. As such, it plays an important role in soil carbon balance, and land-atmosphere interactions in these key regions. Accurate simulation of winter wheat growth is not only crucial for future yield prediction under changing climate, but also for understanding the energy and water cycles for winter wheat dominated regions. A winter wheat growth model has been developed in the Community Land Model 4.5 (CLM4.5), but its responses to irrigation and nitrogen fertilization have not been validated. In this study, I will validate winter wheat growth response to irrigation and nitrogen fertilization at five winter wheat field sites (TXLU, KSMA, NESA, NDMA, and ABLE) in North America, which were originally designed to understand winter wheat response to nitrogen fertilization and water treatments (4 nitrogen levels and 3 irrigation regimes). I also plan to further update the linkages between winter wheat yield and cold hazards. The previous cold damage function only indirectly affects yield through reduction on leaf area index (LAI) and hence photosynthesis, such approach could sometimes produce an unwanted higher yield when the reduced LAI saved more nutrient in the grain fill stage.

  14. Evaluation and improvement of the Community Land Model (CLM4 in Oregon forests

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    T. W. Hudiburg

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecosystem process models are important tools for determining the interactive effects of global change and disturbance on forest carbon dynamics. Here we evaluated and improved terrestrial carbon cycling simulated by the Community Land Model (CLM4, the land model portion of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.0.4. Our analysis was conducted primarily in Oregon forests using FLUXNET and forest inventory data for the period 2001–2006. We go beyond prior modeling studies in the region by incorporating regional variation in physiological parameters from >100 independent field sites in the region. We also compare spatial patterns of simulated forest carbon stocks and net primary production (NPP at 15 km resolution using data collected from federal forest inventory plots (FIA from >3000 plots in the study region. Finally, we evaluate simulated gross primary production (GPP with FLUXNET eddy covariance tower data at wet and dry sites in the region. We improved model estimates by making modifications to CLM4 to allow physiological parameters (e.g., foliage carbon to nitrogen ratios and specific leaf area, mortality rate, biological nitrogen fixation, and wood allocation to vary spatially by plant functional type (PFT within an ecoregion based on field plot data in the region. Prior to modifications, default parameters resulted in underestimation of stem biomass in all forested ecoregions except the Blue Mountains and annual NPP was both over- and underestimated. After modifications, model estimates of mean NPP fell within the observed range of uncertainty in all ecoregions (two-sided P value = 0.8, and the underestimation of stem biomass was reduced. This was an improvement from the default configuration by 50% for stem biomass and 30% for NPP. At the tower sites, modeled monthly GPP fell within the observed range of uncertainty at both sites for the majority of the year, however summer GPP was underestimated at the Metolius semi

  15. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin

    2014-01-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  16. Flexible global ocean-atmosphere-land system model. A modeling tool for the climate change research community

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    Zhou, Tianjun; Yu, Yongqiang; Liu, Yimin; Wang, Bin (eds.) [Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, (China). Inst. of Atmospheric Physics

    2014-04-01

    First book available on systematic evaluations of the performance of the global climate model FGOALS. Covers the whole field, ranging from the development to the applications of this climate system model. Provide an outlook for the future development of the FGOALS model system. Offers brief introduction about how to run FGOALS. Coupled climate system models are of central importance for climate studies. A new model known as FGOALS (the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System model), has been developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG/IAP, CAS), a first-tier national geophysical laboratory. It serves as a powerful tool, both for deepening our understanding of fundamental mechanisms of the climate system and for making decadal prediction and scenario projections of future climate change. ''Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model: A Modeling Tool for the Climate Change Research Community'' is the first book to offer systematic evaluations of this model's performance. It is comprehensive in scope, covering both developmental and application-oriented aspects of this climate system model. It also provides an outlook of future development of FGOALS and offers an overview of how to employ the model. It represents a valuable reference work for researchers and professionals working within the related areas of climate variability and change.

  17. Improving representation of nitrogen uptake, allocation, and carbon assimilation in the Community Land Model

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    Ghimire, B.; Riley, W. J.; Koven, C.

    2013-12-01

    Nitrogen is the most important nutrient limiting plant carbon assimilation and growth, and is required for production of photosynthetic enzymes, growth and maintenance respiration, and maintaining cell structure. The forecasted rise in plant available nitrogen through atmospheric nitrogen deposition and the release of locked soil nitrogen by permafrost thaw in high latitude ecosystems is likely to result in an increase in plant productivity. However a mechanistic representation of plant nitrogen dynamics is lacking in earth system models. Most earth system models ignore the dynamic nature of plant nutrient uptake and allocation, and further lack tight coupling of below- and above-ground processes. In these models, the increase in nitrogen uptake does not translate to a corresponding increase in photosynthesis parameters, such as maximum Rubisco capacity and electron transfer rate. We present an improved modeling framework implemented in the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) for dynamic plant nutrient uptake, and allocation to different plant parts, including leaf enzymes. This modeling framework relies on imposing a more realistic flexible carbon to nitrogen stoichiometric ratio for different plant parts. The model mechanistically responds to plant nitrogen uptake and leaf allocation though changes in photosynthesis parameters. We produce global simulations, and examine the impacts of the improved nitrogen cycling. The improved model is evaluated against multiple observations including TRY database of global plant traits, nitrogen fertilization observations and 15N tracer studies. Global simulations with this new version of CLM4.5 showed better agreement with the observations than the default CLM4.5-CN model, and captured the underlying mechanisms associated with plant nitrogen cycle.

  18. Coupling of Community Land Model with RegCM4 for Indian Summer Monsoon Simulation

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    Maurya, R. K. S.; Sinha, P.; Mohanty, M. R.; Mohanty, U. C.

    2017-11-01

    Three land surface schemes available in the regional climate model RegCM4 have been examined to understand the coupling between land and atmosphere for simulation of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The RegCM4 is coupled with biosphere-atmosphere transfer scheme (BATS) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Land Model versions 3.5, and 4.5 (CLM3.5 and CLM4.5, respectively) and model performance is evaluated for recent drought (2009) and normal (2011) monsoon years. The CLM4.5 has a more distinct category of surface and it is capable of representing better the land surface characteristics. National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis version 2 (NNRP2) datasets are considered as driving force to conduct the experiments for the Indian monsoon region (30°E-120°E; 30°S-50°N). The NNRP2 and India Meteorological Department (IMD) gridded precipitation data are used for verification analysis. The results indicate that RegCM4 simulations with CLM4.5 (RegCM4-CLM4.5) and CLM3.5 (RegCM4-CLM3.5) surface temperature (at 2 ms) have very low warm biases ( 1 °C), while with BATS (RegCM4-BATS) has a cold bias of about 1-3 °C in peninsular India and some parts of central India. Warm bias in the RegCM4-BATS is observed over the Indo-Gangetic plain and northwest India and the bias is more for the deficit year as compared to the normal year. However, the warm (cold) bias is less in RegCM4-CLM4.5 than other schemes for both the deficit and normal years. The model-simulated maximum (minimum) surface temperature and sensible heat flux at the surface are positively (negatively) biased in all the schemes; however, the bias is higher in RegCM4-BATS and lower in RegCM4-CLM4.5 over India. All the land surface schemes overestimated the precipitation in peninsular India and underestimated in central parts of India for both the years; however, the biases are less in RegCM4-CLM4.5 and more in RegCM4-CLM3.5 and Reg

  19. Keeping "Community" in a Community Land Trust

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, Karen A.; Galande, Mugdha

    2011-01-01

    This instrumental case study examined the role of grassroots community organizing in a community land trust (CLT) in a southern U.S. city. Twenty-nine homeowners, renters, board members, community members, and current and former CLT employees were interviewed. In addition, two focus groups of 11 and six participants composed of CLT residents and…

  20. Improving the representation of river-groundwater interactions in land surface modeling at the regional scale: Observational evidence and parameterization applied in the Community Land Model

    KAUST Repository

    Zampieri, Matteo; Serpetzoglou, Efthymios; Anagnostou, Emmanouil N.; Nikolopoulos, Efthymios I.; Papadopoulos, Anastasios

    2012-01-01

    Groundwater is an important component of the hydrological cycle, included in many land surface models to provide a lower boundary condition for soil moisture, which in turn plays a key role in the land-vegetation-atmosphere interactions

  1. The South Florida Ecosystem Portfolio Model - A Map-Based Multicriteria Ecological, Economic, and Community Land-Use Planning Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labiosa, William B.; Bernknopf, Richard; Hearn, Paul; Hogan, Dianna; Strong, David; Pearlstine, Leonard; Mathie, Amy M.; Wein, Anne M.; Gillen, Kevin; Wachter, Susan

    2009-01-01

    issues of regional ecological sustainability can be explored with the EPM (for example, changes in biodiversity potential and regional habitat fragmentation), it does not attempt to define or evaluate long-term ecological sustainability as such. Instead, the EPM is intended to provide transparent first-order indications of the direction of ecological, economic, and community change, not to make detailed predictions of ecological, economic, and social outcomes. In short, the EPM is an attempt to widen the perspectives of its users by integrating natural and social scientific information in a framework that recognizes the diversity of values at stake in South Florida land-use planning. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-cover change is one of the most important direct drivers of changes in ecosystem services (Hassan and others, 2005). More specifically, the fragmentation of habitat from expanding low-density development across landscapes appears to be a major driver of terrestrial species decline and the impairment of terrestrial ecosystem integrity, in some cases causing irreversible impairment from a land-use planning perspective (Brody, 2008; Peck, 1998). Many resource managers and land-use planners have come to realize that evaluating land-use conversions on a parcel-by-parcel basis leads to a fragmented and narrow view of the regional effects of natural land-cover loss to development (Marsh and Lallas, 1995). The EPM is an attempt to integrate important aspects of the coupled natural-system/human-system view from a regional planning perspective. The EPM evaluates proposed land-use changes, both conversion and intensification, in terms of relevant ecological, economic, and social criteria that combine information about probable land-use outcomes, based on ecological and environmental models, as well as value judgments, as expressed in user-modifiable preference models. Based on on-going meetings and interviews with stakeholders and potential tool users we foc

  2. A specific PFT and sub-canopy structure for simulating oil palm in the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Y.; Knohl, A.; Roupsard, O.; Bernoux, M.; LE Maire, G.; Panferov, O.; Kotowska, M.; Meijide, A.

    2015-12-01

    Towards an effort to quantify the effects of rainforests to oil palm conversion on land-atmosphere carbon, water and energy fluxes, a specific plant functional type (PFT) and sub-canopy structure are developed for simulating oil palm within the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). Current global land surface models only simulate annual crops beside natural vegetation. In this study, a multilayer oil palm subroutine is developed in CLM4.5 for simulating oil palm's phenology and carbon and nitrogen allocation. The oil palm has monopodial morphology and sequential phenology of around 40 stacked phytomers, each carrying a large leaf and a fruit bunch, forming a natural multilayer canopy. A sub-canopy phenological and physiological parameterization is thus introduced, so that multiple phytomer components develop simultaneously but according to their different phenological steps (growth, yield and senescence) at different canopy layers. This specific multilayer structure was proved useful for simulating canopy development in terms of leaf area index (LAI) and fruit yield in terms of carbon and nitrogen outputs in Jambi, Sumatra (Fan et al. 2015). The study supports that species-specific traits, such as palm's monopodial morphology and sequential phenology, are necessary representations in terrestrial biosphere models in order to accurately simulate vegetation dynamics and feedbacks to climate. Further, oil palm's multilayer structure allows adding all canopy-level calculations of radiation, photosynthesis, stomatal conductance and respiration, beside phenology, also to the sub-canopy level, so as to eliminate scale mismatch problem among different processes. A series of adaptations are made to the CLM model. Initial results show that the adapted multilayer radiative transfer scheme and the explicit represention of oil palm's canopy structure improve on simulating photosynthesis-light response curve. The explicit photosynthesis and dynamic leaf nitrogen calculations per canopy

  3. Estimation of Community Land Model parameters for an improved assessment of net carbon fluxes at European sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Hanna; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Fox, Andrew; Vereecken, Harry; Hendricks Franssen, Harrie-Jan

    2017-03-01

    The Community Land Model (CLM) contains many parameters whose values are uncertain and thus require careful estimation for model application at individual sites. Here we used Bayesian inference with the DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM(zs)) algorithm to estimate eight CLM v.4.5 ecosystem parameters using 1 year records of half-hourly net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) observations of four central European sites with different plant functional types (PFTs). The posterior CLM parameter distributions of each site were estimated per individual season and on a yearly basis. These estimates were then evaluated using NEE data from an independent evaluation period and data from "nearby" FLUXNET sites at 600 km distance to the original sites. Latent variables (multipliers) were used to treat explicitly uncertainty in the initial carbon-nitrogen pools. The posterior parameter estimates were superior to their default values in their ability to track and explain the measured NEE data of each site. The seasonal parameter values reduced with more than 50% (averaged over all sites) the bias in the simulated NEE values. The most consistent performance of CLM during the evaluation period was found for the posterior parameter values of the forest PFTs, and contrary to the C3-grass and C3-crop sites, the latent variables of the initial pools further enhanced the quality-of-fit. The carbon sink function of the forest PFTs significantly increased with the posterior parameter estimates. We thus conclude that land surface model predictions of carbon stocks and fluxes require careful consideration of uncertain ecological parameters and initial states.

  4. Predicting Land-Ice Retreat and Sea-Level Rise with the Community Earth System Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lipscomb, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-06-19

    Coastal stakeholders need defensible predictions of 21st century sea-level rise (SLR). IPCC assessments suggest 21st century SLR of {approx}0.5 m under aggressive emission scenarios. Semi-empirical models project SLR of {approx}1 m or more by 2100. Although some sea-level contributions are fairly well constrained by models, others are highly uncertain. Recent studies suggest a potential large contribution ({approx}0.5 m/century) from the marine-based West Antarctic Ice Sheet, linked to changes in Southern Ocean wind stress. To assess the likelihood of fast retreat of marine ice sheets, we need coupled ice-sheet/ocean models that do not yet exist (but are well under way). CESM is uniquely positioned to provide integrated, physics based sea-level predictions.

  5. Representing northern peatland microtopography and hydrology within the Community Land Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    X. Shi; P.E. Thornton; D.M. Ricciuto; P J. Hanson; J. Mao; Stephen Sebestyen; N.A. Griffiths; G. Bisht

    2015-01-01

    Predictive understanding of northern peatland hydrology is a necessary precursor to understanding the fate of massive carbon stores in these systems under the influence of present and future climate change. Current models have begun to address microtopographic controls on peatland hydrology, but none have included a prognostic calculation of peatland water table depth...

  6. Natural and drought scenarios in an east central Amazon forest: Fidelity of the Community Land Model 3.5 with three biogeochemical models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakaguchi, Koichi; Zeng, Xubin; Christoffersen, Bradley J.; Restrepo-Coupe, Natalia; Saleska, Scott R.; Brando, Paulo M.

    2011-03-01

    Recent development of general circulation models involves biogeochemical cycles: flows of carbon and other chemical species that circulate through the Earth system. Such models are valuable tools for future projections of climate, but still bear large uncertainties in the model simulations. One of the regions with especially high uncertainty is the Amazon forest where large-scale dieback associated with the changing climate is predicted by several models. In order to better understand the capability and weakness of global-scale land-biogeochemical models in simulating a tropical ecosystem under the present day as well as significantly drier climates, we analyzed the off-line simulations for an east central Amazon forest by the Community Land Model version 3.5 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and its three independent biogeochemical submodels (CASA', CN, and DGVM). Intense field measurements carried out under Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia, including forest response to drought from a throughfall exclusion experiment, are utilized to evaluate the whole spectrum of biogeophysical and biogeochemical aspects of the models. Our analysis shows reasonable correspondence in momentum and energy turbulent fluxes, but it highlights three processes that are not in agreement with observations: (1) inconsistent seasonality in carbon fluxes, (2) biased biomass size and allocation, and (3) overestimation of vegetation stress to short-term drought but underestimation of biomass loss from long-term drought. Without resolving these issues the modeled feedbacks from the biosphere in future climate projections would be questionable. We suggest possible directions for model improvements and also emphasize the necessity of more studies using a variety of in situ data for both driving and evaluating land-biogeochemical models.

  7. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Zong-Liang; Niu, Guo-Yue; Mitchell, Kenneth E.; Chen, Fei; Ek, Michael B.; Barlage, Michael; Longuevergne, Laurent; Manning, Kevin; Niyogi, Dev; Tewari, Mukul; Xia, Youlong

    2011-01-01

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model's weaknesses and strengths that a local

  8. A New Scheme for Considering Soil Water-Heat Transport Coupling Based on Community Land Model: Model Description and Preliminary Validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chenghai; Yang, Kai

    2018-04-01

    Land surface models (LSMs) have developed significantly over the past few decades, with the result that most LSMs can generally reproduce the characteristics of the land surface. However, LSMs fail to reproduce some details of soil water and heat transport during seasonal transition periods because they neglect the effects of interactions between water movement and heat transfer in the soil. Such effects are critical for a complete understanding of water-heat transport within a soil thermohydraulic regime. In this study, a fully coupled water-heat transport scheme (FCS) is incorporated into the Community Land Model (version 4.5) to replaces its original isothermal scheme, which is more complete in theory. Observational data from five sites are used to validate the performance of the FCS. The simulation results at both single-point and global scale show that the FCS improved the simulation of soil moisture and temperature. FCS better reproduced the characteristics of drier and colder surface layers in arid regions by considering the diffusion of soil water vapor, which is a nonnegligible process in soil, especially for soil surface layers, while its effects in cold regions are generally inverse. It also accounted for the sensible heat fluxes caused by liquid water flow, which can contribute to heat transfer in both surface and deep layers. The FCS affects the estimation of surface sensible heat (SH) and latent heat (LH) and provides the details of soil heat and water transportation, which benefits to understand the inner physical process of soil water-heat migration.

  9. Strengthening Community Land Rights and Responses to ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Strengthening Community Land Rights and Responses to Involuntary Displacement Caused by Development Projects in Zimbabwe ... The construction of hydro-electric dams and other large mining and agricultural projects, for example, have led to negative consequences due to weak land tenure rights and a more general ...

  10. Hydrological land surface modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ridler, Marc-Etienne Francois

    Recent advances in integrated hydrological and soil-vegetation-atmosphere transfer (SVAT) modelling have led to improved water resource management practices, greater crop production, and better flood forecasting systems. However, uncertainty is inherent in all numerical models ultimately leading...... temperature are explored in a multi-objective calibration experiment to optimize the parameters in a SVAT model in the Sahel. The two satellite derived variables were effective at constraining most land-surface and soil parameters. A data assimilation framework is developed and implemented with an integrated...... and disaster management. The objective of this study is to develop and investigate methods to reduce hydrological model uncertainty by using supplementary data sources. The data is used either for model calibration or for model updating using data assimilation. Satellite estimates of soil moisture and surface...

  11. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 1. Model description and evaluation with local-scale measurements

    KAUST Repository

    Niu, Guo-Yue

    2011-06-24

    This first paper of the two-part series describes the objectives of the community efforts in improving the Noah land surface model (LSM), documents, through mathematical formulations, the augmented conceptual realism in biophysical and hydrological processes, and introduces a framework for multiple options to parameterize selected processes (Noah-MP). The Noah-MP\\'s performance is evaluated at various local sites using high temporal frequency data sets, and results show the advantages of using multiple optional schemes to interpret the differences in modeling simulations. The second paper focuses on ensemble evaluations with long-term regional (basin) and global scale data sets. The enhanced conceptual realism includes (1) the vegetation canopy energy balance, (2) the layered snowpack, (3) frozen soil and infiltration, (4) soil moisture-groundwater interaction and related runoff production, and (5) vegetation phenology. Sample local-scale validations are conducted over the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Field Experiment (FIFE) site, the W3 catchment of Sleepers River, Vermont, and a French snow observation site. Noah-MP shows apparent improvements in reproducing surface fluxes, skin temperature over dry periods, snow water equivalent (SWE), snow depth, and runoff over Noah LSM version 3.0. Noah-MP improves the SWE simulations due to more accurate simulations of the diurnal variations of the snow skin temperature, which is critical for computing available energy for melting. Noah-MP also improves the simulation of runoff peaks and timing by introducing a more permeable frozen soil and more accurate simulation of snowmelt. We also demonstrate that Noah-MP is an effective research tool by which modeling results for a given process can be interpreted through multiple optional parameterization schemes in the same model framework. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  12. Land-total and Ocean-total Precipitation and Evaporation from a Community Atmosphere Model version 5 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Covey, Curt [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Lucas, Donald D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

    2016-03-02

    This document presents the large scale water budget statistics of a perturbed input-parameter ensemble of atmospheric model runs. The model is Version 5.1.02 of the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). These runs are the “C-Ensemble” described by Qian et al., “Parametric Sensitivity Analysis of Precipitation at Global and Local Scales in the Community Atmosphere Model CAM5” (Journal of Advances in Modeling the Earth System, 2015). As noted by Qian et al., the simulations are “AMIP type” with temperature and sea ice boundary conditions chosen to match surface observations for the five year period 2000-2004. There are 1100 ensemble members in addition to one run with default inputparameter values.

  13. The community Noah land surface model with multiparameterization options (Noah-MP): 2. Evaluation over global river basins

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Zong-Liang

    2011-06-24

    The augmented Noah land surface model described in the first part of the two-part series was evaluated here over global river basins. Across various climate zones, global-scale tests can reveal a model\\'s weaknesses and strengths that a local-scale testing cannot. In addition, global-scale tests are more challenging than local- and catchment-scale tests. Given constant model parameters (e. g., runoff parameters) across global river basins, global-scale tests are more stringent. We assessed model performance against various satellite and ground-based observations over global river basins through six experiments that mimic a transition from the original Noah LSM to the fully augmented version. The model shows transitional improvements in modeling runoff, soil moisture, snow, and skin temperature, despite considerable increase in computational time by the fully augmented Noah-MP version compared to the original Noah LSM. The dynamic vegetation model favorably captures seasonal and spatial variability of leaf area index and green vegetation fraction. We also conducted 36 ensemble experiments with 36 combinations of optional schemes for runoff, leaf dynamics, stomatal resistance, and the β factor. Runoff schemes play a dominant and different role in controlling soil moisture and its relationship with evapotranspiration compared to ecological processes such as β the factor, vegetation dynamics, and stomatal resistance. The 36-member ensemble mean of runoff performs better than any single member over the world\\'s 50 largest river basins, suggesting a great potential of land-based ensemble simulations for climate prediction. Copyright © 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

  14. Community Context, Land Use, and First Birth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Dirgha J.; Axinn, William G.

    2010-01-01

    This article examines the influence of community context and land use on the monthly odds of first birth in a society in the midst of dramatic fertility transition. The theoretical framework guiding our work predicts that proximity to nonfamily services should delay first births by creating opportunities for competing nonfamily activities and…

  15. Land-Use History and Contemporary Management Inform an Ecological Reference Model for Longleaf Pine Woodland Understory Plant Communities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brudvig, Lars A. [Department of Plant Biology, Michigan State University; Orrock, John L. [Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin; Damschen, Ellen I. [Department of Zoology, University of Wisconsin; et al, et al

    2014-01-23

    Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions, as well as conditions at degraded states that deviate from reference conditions. Many reference models remain qualitative, however, limiting their utility. We quantified and evaluated a reference model for southeastern U.S. longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities. We used regression trees to classify 232 longleaf pine woodland sites at three locations along the Atlantic coastal plain based on relationships between understory plant community composition, soils lol(which broadly structure these communities), and factors associated with understory degradation, including fire frequency, agricultural history, and tree basal area. To understand the spatial generality of this model, we classified all sites together. and for each of three study locations separately. Both the regional and location-specific models produced quantifiable degradation gradients–i.e., progressive deviation from conditions at 38 reference sites, based on understory species composition, diversity and total cover, litter depth, and other attributes. Regionally, fire suppression was the most important degrading factor, followed by agricultural history, but at individual locations, agricultural history or tree basal area was most important. At one location, the influence of a degrading factor depended on soil attributes. We suggest that our regional model can help prioritize longleaf pine woodland restoration across our study region; however, due to substantial landscape-to-landscape variation, local management decisions should take into account additional factors (e.g., soil attributes). Our study demonstrates the utility

  16. Land-Use History and Contemporary Management Inform an Ecological Reference Model for Longleaf Pine Woodland Understory Plant Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brudvig, Lars A.; Orrock, John L.; Damschen, Ellen I.; Collins, Cathy D.; Hahn, Philip G.; Mattingly, W. Brett; Veldman, Joseph W.; Walker, Joan L.

    2014-01-01

    Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions, as well as conditions at degraded states that deviate from reference conditions. Many reference models remain qualitative, however, limiting their utility. We quantified and evaluated a reference model for southeastern U.S. longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities. We used regression trees to classify 232 longleaf pine woodland sites at three locations along the Atlantic coastal plain based on relationships between understory plant community composition, soils (which broadly structure these communities), and factors associated with understory degradation, including fire frequency, agricultural history, and tree basal area. To understand the spatial generality of this model, we classified all sites together and for each of three study locations separately. Both the regional and location-specific models produced quantifiable degradation gradients–i.e., progressive deviation from conditions at 38 reference sites, based on understory species composition, diversity and total cover, litter depth, and other attributes. Regionally, fire suppression was the most important degrading factor, followed by agricultural history, but at individual locations, agricultural history or tree basal area was most important. At one location, the influence of a degrading factor depended on soil attributes. We suggest that our regional model can help prioritize longleaf pine woodland restoration across our study region; however, due to substantial landscape-to-landscape variation, local management decisions should take into account additional factors (e.g., soil attributes). Our study demonstrates the utility of

  17. Land-use history and contemporary management inform an ecological reference model for longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars A Brudvig

    Full Text Available Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions, as well as conditions at degraded states that deviate from reference conditions. Many reference models remain qualitative, however, limiting their utility. We quantified and evaluated a reference model for southeastern U.S. longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities. We used regression trees to classify 232 longleaf pine woodland sites at three locations along the Atlantic coastal plain based on relationships between understory plant community composition, soils (which broadly structure these communities, and factors associated with understory degradation, including fire frequency, agricultural history, and tree basal area. To understand the spatial generality of this model, we classified all sites together and for each of three study locations separately. Both the regional and location-specific models produced quantifiable degradation gradients-i.e., progressive deviation from conditions at 38 reference sites, based on understory species composition, diversity and total cover, litter depth, and other attributes. Regionally, fire suppression was the most important degrading factor, followed by agricultural history, but at individual locations, agricultural history or tree basal area was most important. At one location, the influence of a degrading factor depended on soil attributes. We suggest that our regional model can help prioritize longleaf pine woodland restoration across our study region; however, due to substantial landscape-to-landscape variation, local management decisions should take into account additional factors (e.g., soil attributes. Our study demonstrates

  18. Carbon cost of plant nitrogen acquisition: global carbon cycle impact from an improved plant nitrogen cycle in the Community Land Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Mingjie; Fisher, Joshua B; Brzostek, Edward R; Phillips, Richard P

    2016-03-01

    Plants typically expend a significant portion of their available carbon (C) on nutrient acquisition - C that could otherwise support growth. However, given that most global terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) do not include the C cost of nutrient acquisition, these models fail to represent current and future constraints to the land C sink. Here, we integrated a plant productivity-optimized nutrient acquisition model - the Fixation and Uptake of Nitrogen Model - into one of the most widely used TBMs, the Community Land Model. Global plant nitrogen (N) uptake is dynamically simulated in the coupled model based on the C costs of N acquisition from mycorrhizal roots, nonmycorrhizal roots, N-fixing microbes, and retranslocation (from senescing leaves). We find that at the global scale, plants spend 2.4 Pg C yr(-1) to acquire 1.0 Pg N yr(-1) , and that the C cost of N acquisition leads to a downregulation of global net primary production (NPP) by 13%. Mycorrhizal uptake represented the dominant pathway by which N is acquired, accounting for ~66% of the N uptake by plants. Notably, roots associating with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi - generally considered for their role in phosphorus (P) acquisition - are estimated to be the primary source of global plant N uptake owing to the dominance of AM-associated plants in mid- and low-latitude biomes. Overall, our coupled model improves the representations of NPP downregulation globally and generates spatially explicit patterns of belowground C allocation, soil N uptake, and N retranslocation at the global scale. Such model improvements are critical for predicting how plant responses to altered N availability (owing to N deposition, rising atmospheric CO2 , and warming temperatures) may impact the land C sink. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Collaborating on Climate: The Signs of the Land Camp as a Model for Meaningful Learning Between Indigenous Communities and Western Climate Scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chase, M.; Brunacini, J.; Sparrow, E. B.

    2016-12-01

    As interest in Indigenous Knowledge (IK) grows, how can researchers ensure that collaboration is meaningful, relevant, and valuable for those involved? The Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change Camp is a collaborative project developed by the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE), the International Arctic Research Center (IARC), and the PoLAR Partnership. Modeled on AINE's Elder Academy and supported by a grant from the National Science Foundation, the camp facilitates in-depth dialogue about climate change and explores causes, impacts, and solutions through the cultural lens of Alaska Native communities. The project integrates local observations, IK, and western climate science. Participants engage with Alaska Native Elders, local climate researchers, and learn about climate communication tools and resources for responding. Following camps in 2014 and 2016, project partners identified a variety of questions about the challenges and opportunities of the collaboration that will be discussed in this presentation. For instance, what does it mean to equitably integrate IK, and in what ways are Native communities able to participate in research project design, delivery, and evaluation? How are decisions made and consensus built within cultural practices, project goals, and funding expectations? How do opportunities available to Indigenous communities to engage with western climate science broaden understanding and response? And, how does the ability to connect with and learn from Alaska Native Elders affect motivation, engagement, and community action? Finally, what is the effect of learning about climate change in a cultural camp setting?

  20. Improving Predictions of Tree Drought Mortality in the Community Land Model Using Hydraulic Physiology Theory and its Effects on Carbon Metabolism

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNellis, B.; Hudiburg, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Tree mortality due to drought is predicted to have increasing impacts on ecosystem structure and function during the 21st century. Models can attempt to predict which forests are most at risk from drought, but novel environments may preclude analysis that relies on past observations. The inclusion of more mechanistic detail may reduce uncertainty in predictions, but can also compound model complexity, especially in global models. The Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5), itself a component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM), has recently integrated cohort-based demography into its dynamic vegetation component and is in the process of coupling this demography to a model of plant hydraulic physiology (FATES-Hydro). Previous treatment of drought stress and plant mortality within CLM has been relatively broad, but a detailed hydraulics module represents a key step towards accurate mortality prognosis. Here, we examine the structure of FATES-Hydro with respect to two key physiological attributes: tissue osmotic potentials and embolism refilling. Specifically, we ask how FATES-Hydro captures mechanistic realism within each attribute and how much support there is within the physiological literature for its further elaboration within the model structure. Additionally, connections to broader aspects of carbon metabolism within FATES are explored to better resolve emergent consequences of drought stress on ecosystem function and tree demographics. An on-going field experiment in managed stands of Pinus ponderosa and mixed conifers is assessed for model parameterization and performance across PNW forests, with important implications for future forest management strategy.

  1. OPAL Netlogo Land Condition Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-08-15

    ER D C/ CE RL T R- 14 -1 2 Optimal Allocation of Land for Training and Non-training Uses ( OPAL ) OPAL Netlogo Land Condition Model...Fulton, Natalie Myers, Scott Tweddale, Dick Gebhart, Ryan Busby, Anne Dain-Owens, and Heidi Howard August 2014 OPAL team measuring above and...online library at http://acwc.sdp.sirsi.net/client/default. Optimal Allocation of Land for Training and Non-training Uses ( OPAL ) ERDC/CERL TR-14-12

  2. Signs of the Land: Reaching Arctic Communities Facing Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, E. B.; Chase, M. J.; Demientieff, S.; Pfirman, S. L.; Brunacini, J.

    2014-12-01

    In July 2014, a diverse and intergenerational group of Alaskan Natives came together on Howard Luke's Galee'ya Camp by the Tanana River in Fairbanks, Alaska to talk about climate change and it's impacts on local communities. Over a period of four days, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp wove together traditional knowledge, local observations, Native language, and climate science through a mix of storytelling, presentations, dialogue, and hands-on, community-building activities. This camp adapted the model developed several years ago under the Association for Interior Native Educators (AINE)'s Elder Academy. Part of the Polar Learning and Responding Climate Change Education Partnership, the Signs of the Land Climate Change Camp was developed and conducted collaboratively with multiple partners to test a model for engaging indigenous communities in the co-production of climate change knowledge, communication tools, and solutions-building. Native Alaskans have strong subsistence and cultural connections to the land and its resources, and, in addition to being keen observers of their environment, have a long history of adapting to changing conditions. Participants in the camp included Elders, classroom teachers, local resource managers and planners, community members, and climate scientists. Based on their experiences during the camp, participants designed individualized outreach plans for bringing culturally-responsive climate learning to their communities and classrooms throughout the upcoming year. Plans included small group discussions, student projects, teacher training, and conference presentations.

  3. A framework for benchmarking land models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Q. Luo

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Land models, which have been developed by the modeling community in the past few decades to predict future states of ecosystems and climate, have to be critically evaluated for their performance skills of simulating ecosystem responses and feedback to climate change. Benchmarking is an emerging procedure to measure performance of models against a set of defined standards. This paper proposes a benchmarking framework for evaluation of land model performances and, meanwhile, highlights major challenges at this infant stage of benchmark analysis. The framework includes (1 targeted aspects of model performance to be evaluated, (2 a set of benchmarks as defined references to test model performance, (3 metrics to measure and compare performance skills among models so as to identify model strengths and deficiencies, and (4 model improvement. Land models are required to simulate exchange of water, energy, carbon and sometimes other trace gases between the atmosphere and land surface, and should be evaluated for their simulations of biophysical processes, biogeochemical cycles, and vegetation dynamics in response to climate change across broad temporal and spatial scales. Thus, one major challenge is to select and define a limited number of benchmarks to effectively evaluate land model performance. The second challenge is to develop metrics of measuring mismatches between models and benchmarks. The metrics may include (1 a priori thresholds of acceptable model performance and (2 a scoring system to combine data–model mismatches for various processes at different temporal and spatial scales. The benchmark analyses should identify clues of weak model performance to guide future development, thus enabling improved predictions of future states of ecosystems and climate. The near-future research effort should be on development of a set of widely acceptable benchmarks that can be used to objectively, effectively, and reliably evaluate fundamental properties

  4. Water-quality models to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota, 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Erik A.; Kiesling, Richard L.; Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.

    2017-07-20

    Fish habitat can degrade in many lakes due to summer blue-green algal blooms. Predictive models are needed to better manage and mitigate loss of fish habitat due to these changes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, developed predictive water-quality models for two agricultural land-use dominated lakes in Minnesota—Madison Lake and Pearl Lake, which are part of Minnesota’s sentinel lakes monitoring program—to assess algal community dynamics, water quality, and fish habitat suitability of these two lakes under recent (2014) meteorological conditions. The interaction of basin processes to these two lakes, through the delivery of nutrient loads, were simulated using CE-QUAL-W2, a carbon-based, laterally averaged, two-dimensional water-quality model that predicts distribution of temperature and oxygen from interactions between nutrient cycling, primary production, and trophic dynamics.The CE-QUAL-W2 models successfully predicted water temperature and dissolved oxygen on the basis of the two metrics of mean absolute error and root mean square error. For Madison Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.53 and 0.68 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons; for Pearl Lake, the mean absolute error and root mean square error were 0.71 and 0.95 degree Celsius, respectively, for the vertical temperature profile comparisons. Temperature and dissolved oxygen were key metrics for calibration targets. These calibrated lake models also simulated algal community dynamics and water quality. The model simulations presented potential explanations for persistently large total phosphorus concentrations in Madison Lake, key differences in nutrient concentrations between these lakes, and summer blue-green algal bloom persistence.Fish habitat suitability simulations for cool-water and warm-water fish indicated that, in general, both lakes contained a large

  5. Simulating feedbacks in land use and land cover change models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, P.H.

    2006-01-01

    In spite of the many advances in land use and land cover change modelling over the past decade many challenges remain. One of these challenges relates to the explicit treatment of feedback mechanisms in descriptive models of the land use system. This paper argues for model-based analysis to explore

  6. Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index into the Community Land Model with Explicit Carbon and Nitrogen Components using Data Assimilation Research Testbed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, X.; Fu, C.; Yang, Z. L.; Guo, W.

    2017-12-01

    Information of the spatial and temporal patterns of leaf area index (LAI) is crucial to understand the exchanges of momentum, carbon, energy, and water between the terrestrial ecosystem and the atmosphere, while both in-situ observation and model simulation usually show distinct deficiency in terms of LAI coverage and value. Land data assimilation, combined with observation and simulation together, is a promising way to provide variable estimation. The Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) developed and maintained by the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) provides a powerful tool to facilitate the combination of assimilation algorithms, models, and real (as well as synthetic) observations to better understanding of all three. Here we systematically investigated the effects of data assimilation on improving LAI simulation based on NCAR Community Land Model with the prognostic carbon-nitrogen option (CLM4CN) linked with DART using the deterministic Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF). Random 40-member atmospheric forcing was used to drive the CLM4CN with or without LAI assimilation. The Global Land Surface Satellite LAI data (GLASS LAI) LAI is assimilated into the CLM4CN at a frequency of 8 days, and LAI (and leaf carbon / nitrogen) are adjusted at each time step. The results show that assimilating remotely sensed LAI into the CLM4CN is an effective method for improving model performance. In detail, the CLM4-CN simulated LAI systematically overestimates global LAI, especially in low latitude with the largest bias of 5 m2/m2. While if updating both LAI and leaf carbon and leaf nitrogen simultaneously during assimilation, the analyzed LAI can be corrected, especially in low latitude regions with the bias controlled around ±1 m2/m2. Analyzed LAI could also represent the seasonal variation except for the Southern Temperate (23°S-90°S). The obviously improved regions located in the center of Africa, Amazon, the South of Eurasia, the northeast of

  7. Community Context, Land Use and First Birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, Dirgha J; Axinn, William G

    2010-09-01

    This paper examines the influence of community context and land use on the monthly odds of first birth in a society in the midst of dramatic fertility transition. The theoretical framework guiding our work predicts that proximity to non-family services should delay first births by creating opportunities for competing non-family activities and spreading new ideas that change expectations about family life. On the other hand, living in agricultural settings that provide opportunities for higher returns to the child labor should speed first births. We use a longitudinal, multilevel, mixed-method data from the Nepalese Himalayas to test these predictions. The empirical results reveal that non-family services during childhood and during early adulthood both have important independent influences on the odds of first birth. Also, as predicted, a high density of agricultural land use affects the odds of first births in the opposite direction, speeding first births. This clear pattern of contrasting effects provides important new evidence of the contextual dynamics that produce watershed changes in post-marital birth timing.

  8. Reconciling leaf physiological traits and canopy flux data: Use of the TRY and FLUXNET databases in the Community Land Model version 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonan, Gordon B.; Oleson, Keith W.; Fisher, Rosie A.; Lasslop, Gitta; Reichstein, Markus

    2012-06-01

    The Community Land Model version 4 overestimates gross primary production (GPP) compared with estimates from FLUXNET eddy covariance towers. The revised model of Bonan et al. (2011) is consistent with FLUXNET, but values for the leaf-level photosynthetic parameterVcmaxthat yield realistic GPP at the canopy-scale are lower than observed in the global synthesis of Kattge et al. (2009), except for tropical broadleaf evergreen trees. We investigate this discrepancy betweenVcmaxand canopy fluxes. A multilayer model with explicit calculation of light absorption and photosynthesis for sunlit and shaded leaves at depths in the canopy gives insight to the scale mismatch between leaf and canopy. We evaluate the model with light-response curves at individual FLUXNET towers and with empirically upscaled annual GPP. Biases in the multilayer canopy with observedVcmaxare similar, or improved, compared with the standard two-leaf canopy and its lowVcmax, though the Amazon is an exception. The difference relates to light absorption by shaded leaves in the two-leaf canopy, and resulting higher photosynthesis when the canopy scaling parameterKn is low, but observationally constrained. Larger Kndecreases shaded leaf photosynthesis and reduces the difference between the two-leaf and multilayer canopies. The low modelVcmaxis diagnosed from nitrogen reduction of GPP in simulations with carbon-nitrogen biogeochemistry. Our results show that the imposed nitrogen reduction compensates for deficiency in the two-leaf canopy that produces high GPP. Leaf trait databases (Vcmax), within-canopy profiles of photosynthetic capacity (Kn), tower fluxes, and empirically upscaled fields provide important complementary information for model evaluation.

  9. Land Use Change Modelling in R

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.

    2014-12-01

    Land use activities, through the provision of natural resources, are essential to human existence. In many regions land use change is degrading biodiversity and threatening the sustainability of ecosystem services upon which communities and livelihoods depend. Spatially explicit land use change models are widely used to understand and quantify key processes that affect land use change and make predictions about past and future change. These models typically include a module to estimate the suitability of different locations to particular land use types based on biophysical and socioeconomic predictor variables and a module to allocate change spatially. They are commonly implemented in languages such as C/C++ and Fortran and made available as standalone applications or through proprietary GIS. In many cases the models are released under closed source licences, limiting the reproducibility of scientific results and making model comparison difficult. This work presents a new R package providing methods and classes to support land use change modelling and model development and comparison within the open source R statistical computing environment. The package makes use of existing R implementations of methods such as random forests and recursive partitioning and regression trees to estimate location suitability, as well as providing methods for statistical model building and evaluation. Currently two spatial allocation methods are provided: the first based on the widely used and tested CLUE-S algorithm and the second a novel stochastic procedure developed for large scale applications. Some common tools for evaluating allocation results are implemented. It is hoped that the package will provide a framework for the development of new routines that can be incorporated into future releases of the code.

  10. Evaluating the Community Land Model (CLM4.5) at a coniferous forest site in northwestern United States using flux and carbon-isotope measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Henrique F.; Raczka, Brett M.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.; Lin, John C.; Koven, Charles D.; Thornton, Peter E.; Bowling, David R.; Lai, Chun-Ta; Bible, Kenneth J.; Ehleringer, James R.

    2017-09-01

    Droughts in the western United States are expected to intensify with climate change. Thus, an adequate representation of ecosystem response to water stress in land models is critical for predicting carbon dynamics. The goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 against observations at an old-growth coniferous forest site in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (Wind River AmeriFlux site), characterized by a Mediterranean climate that subjects trees to water stress each summer. CLM was driven by site-observed meteorology and calibrated primarily using parameter values observed at the site or at similar stands in the region. Key model adjustments included parameters controlling specific leaf area and stomatal conductance. Default values of these parameters led to significant underestimation of gross primary production, overestimation of evapotranspiration, and consequently overestimation of photosynthetic 13C discrimination, reflected in reduced 13C : 12C ratios of carbon fluxes and pools. Adjustments in soil hydraulic parameters within CLM were also critical, preventing significant underestimation of soil water content and unrealistic soil moisture stress during summer. After calibration, CLM was able to simulate energy and carbon fluxes, leaf area index, biomass stocks, and carbon isotope ratios of carbon fluxes and pools in reasonable agreement with site observations. Overall, the calibrated CLM was able to simulate the observed response of canopy conductance to atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and soil water content, reasonably capturing the impact of water stress on ecosystem functioning. Both simulations and observations indicate that stomatal response from water stress at Wind River was primarily driven by VPD and not soil moisture. The calibration of the Ball-Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbb) at Wind River aligned with findings from recent CLM experiments at sites characterized by

  11. Evaluating the Community Land Model (CLM4.5 at a coniferous forest site in northwestern United States using flux and carbon-isotope measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. F. Duarte

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Droughts in the western United States are expected to intensify with climate change. Thus, an adequate representation of ecosystem response to water stress in land models is critical for predicting carbon dynamics. The goal of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Community Land Model (CLM version 4.5 against observations at an old-growth coniferous forest site in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (Wind River AmeriFlux site, characterized by a Mediterranean climate that subjects trees to water stress each summer. CLM was driven by site-observed meteorology and calibrated primarily using parameter values observed at the site or at similar stands in the region. Key model adjustments included parameters controlling specific leaf area and stomatal conductance. Default values of these parameters led to significant underestimation of gross primary production, overestimation of evapotranspiration, and consequently overestimation of photosynthetic 13C discrimination, reflected in reduced 13C : 12C ratios of carbon fluxes and pools. Adjustments in soil hydraulic parameters within CLM were also critical, preventing significant underestimation of soil water content and unrealistic soil moisture stress during summer. After calibration, CLM was able to simulate energy and carbon fluxes, leaf area index, biomass stocks, and carbon isotope ratios of carbon fluxes and pools in reasonable agreement with site observations. Overall, the calibrated CLM was able to simulate the observed response of canopy conductance to atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD and soil water content, reasonably capturing the impact of water stress on ecosystem functioning. Both simulations and observations indicate that stomatal response from water stress at Wind River was primarily driven by VPD and not soil moisture. The calibration of the Ball–Berry stomatal conductance slope (mbb at Wind River aligned with findings from recent CLM experiments at

  12. Indicators of the Legal Security of Indigenous and Community Lands. Data file from LandMark: The Global Platform of Indigenous and Community Lands.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tagliarino, Nicholas Korte

    2016-01-01

    L. Alden Wily, N. Tagliarino, Harvard Law and International Development Society (LIDS), A. Vidal, C. Salcedo-La Vina, S. Ibrahim, and B. Almeida. 2016. Indicators of the Legal Security of Indigenous and Community Lands. Data file from LandMark: The Global Platform of Indigenous and Community Lands.

  13. “Fair” community benefits and equitable land governance | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    “Fair” community benefits and equitable land governance ... In several regions, women are resisting displacement and making claims to land through ... Cambridge, UK, in collaboration with the Community Legal Education Center, Cambodia; ... Birth registration is the basis for advancing gender equality and children's rights.

  14. Land-use history and contemporary management inform an ecological reference model for longleaf pine woodland understory plant communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lars A. Brudvig; John L. Orrock; Ellen I. Damschen; Cathy D. Collins; Philip G. Hahn; W. Brett Mattingly; Joseph W. Veldman; Joan L. Walker

    2014-01-01

    Ecological restoration is frequently guided by reference conditions describing a successfully restored ecosystem; however, the causes and magnitude of ecosystem degradation vary, making simple knowledge of reference conditions insufficient for prioritizing and guiding restoration. Ecological reference models provide further guidance by quantifying reference conditions...

  15. Multiple timescale analysis of the urban heat island effect based on the Community Land Model: a case study of the city of Xi'an, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Meiling; Shen, Huanfeng; Han, Xujun; Li, Huifang; Zhang, Liangpei

    2017-12-06

    Urban heat islands (UHIs) are the phenomenon of urban regions usually being warmer than rural regions, which significantly impacts both the regional ecosystem and societal activities. Numerical simulation can provide spatially and temporally continuous datasets for UHI analysis. In this study, a spatially and temporally continuous ground temperature dataset of Xi'an, China was obtained through numerical simulation based on the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5), at a temporal resolution of 30 min and a spatial resolution of 0.05 ∘ × 0.05 ∘ . Based on the ground temperature, the seasonal average UHI intensity (UHII) was calculated and the seasonal variation of the UHI effect was analyzed. The monthly variation tendency of the urban heat stress was also investigated. Based on the diurnal cycle of ground temperature and the UHI effect in each season, the variation tendencies of the maximum, minimum, and average UHII were analyzed. The results show that the urban heat stress in summer is the strongest among all four seasons. The heat stress in urban areas is very significant in July, and the UHII is the weakest in January. Regarding the diurnal cycle of UHII, the maximum always appears at 06:30 UTC to 07:30 UTC, while the minimum intensity of the UHI effect occurs at different times in the different seasons. The results of this study could provide a reference for policymakers about how to reduce the damage caused by heat stress.

  16. Community participatory sustainable land management byelaw ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Widespread adoption of sustainable land management (SLM) innovations by land users is considered key in addressing the rampant land degradation in the high rainfall and densely populated highlands of eastern and southern Africa. However, absence of enabling policy environments hamperes massive adoption of SLM ...

  17. Carbon Impacts of Fire- and Bark Beetle-Caused Tree Mortality across the Western US using the Community Land Model (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meddens, A. J.; Hicke, J. A.; Edburg, S. L.; Lawrence, D. M.

    2013-12-01

    Wildfires and bark beetle outbreaks cause major forest disturbances in the western US, affecting ecosystem productivity and thereby impacting forest carbon cycling and future climate. Despite the large spatial extent of tree mortality, quantifying carbon flux dynamics following fires and bark beetles over larger areas is challenging because of forest heterogeneity, varying disturbance severities, and field observation limitations. The objective of our study is to estimate these dynamics across the western US using the Community Land Model (version CLM4.5-BGC). CLM4.5-BGC is a land ecosystem model that mechanistically represents the exchanges of energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen with the atmosphere. The most recent iteration of the model has been expanded to include vertically resolved soil biogeochemistry and includes improved nitrogen cycle representations including nitrification and denitrification and biological fixation as well as improved canopy processes including photosynthesis. Prior to conducting simulations, we modified CLM4.5-BGC to include the effects of bark beetle-caused tree mortality on carbon and nitrogen stocks and fluxes. Once modified, we conducted paired simulations (with and without) fire- and bark beetle-caused tree mortality by using regional data sets of observed mortality as inputs. Bark beetle-caused tree mortality was prescribed from a data set derived from US Forest Service aerial surveys from 1997 to 2010. Annual tree mortality area was produced from observed tree mortality caused by bark beetles and was adjusted for underestimation. Fires were prescribed using the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) database from 1984 to 2010. Annual tree mortality area was produced from forest cover maps and inclusion of moderate- and high-severity burned areas. Simulations show that maximum yearly reduction of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) caused by bark beetles is approximately 20 Tg C for the western US. Fires cause similar reductions

  18. Modelling land surface - atmosphere interactions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Søren Højmark

    representation of groundwater in the hydrological model is found to important and this imply resolving the small river valleys. Because, the important shallow groundwater is found in the river valleys. If the model does not represent the shallow groundwater then the area mean surface flux calculation......The study is investigates modelling of land surface – atmosphere interactions in context of fully coupled climatehydrological model. With a special focus of under what condition a fully coupled model system is needed. Regional climate model inter-comparison projects as ENSEMBLES have shown bias...... by the hydrological model is found to be insensitive to model resolution. Furthermore, this study highlights the effect of bias precipitation by regional climate model and it implications for hydrological modelling....

  19. Water Rights on Community Lands: LandMark’s Findings from 100 Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liz Alden Wily

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper analyzes whether national laws acknowledge indigenous peoples and other rural communities in 100 countries as owners of waters that arise within their lands. Results derive from information collected by LandMark to score the legal status of community land tenure. Findings are positive; half of all countries recognize communities as lawful possessors of water on their lands. Three quarters permit communities to manage the distribution and use of water on their lands. While 71 percent of countries declare water to be a public resource, this belies the substantial existence of privately owned water. In 29 percent of countries, private water is an identified legal category, and in many other countries obtainable rights to water are sufficiently substantial to imply lawful possession. Communities are beneficiaries mainly where customary rights are accorded status as property rights, or where ownership of public lands and water are devolved to rural collectives. However, opposite trends of nationalization and regulation of water suggest that while legal recognition of community land ownership may rise in the future, this will not necessarily include waters on the land. Irrespective of tenure, rural communities in 72 of 77 countries (93.5 percent are legally assured access to water for domestic purposes. This is consistent with the rising definition of safe drinking water as a human right, although access does not necessarily come free of cost.

  20. Spatial modeling of agricultural land use change at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meiyappan, P.; Dalton, M.; O'Neill, B. C.; Jain, A. K.

    2014-11-01

    Long-term modeling of agricultural land use is central in global scale assessments of climate change, food security, biodiversity, and climate adaptation and mitigation policies. We present a global-scale dynamic land use allocation model and show that it can reproduce the broad spatial features of the past 100 years of evolution of cropland and pastureland patterns. The modeling approach integrates economic theory, observed land use history, and data on both socioeconomic and biophysical determinants of land use change, and estimates relationships using long-term historical data, thereby making it suitable for long-term projections. The underlying economic motivation is maximization of expected profits by hypothesized landowners within each grid cell. The model predicts fractional land use for cropland and pastureland within each grid cell based on socioeconomic and biophysical driving factors that change with time. The model explicitly incorporates the following key features: (1) land use competition, (2) spatial heterogeneity in the nature of driving factors across geographic regions, (3) spatial heterogeneity in the relative importance of driving factors and previous land use patterns in determining land use allocation, and (4) spatial and temporal autocorrelation in land use patterns. We show that land use allocation approaches based solely on previous land use history (but disregarding the impact of driving factors), or those accounting for both land use history and driving factors by mechanistically fitting models for the spatial processes of land use change do not reproduce well long-term historical land use patterns. With an example application to the terrestrial carbon cycle, we show that such inaccuracies in land use allocation can translate into significant implications for global environmental assessments. The modeling approach and its evaluation provide an example that can be useful to the land use, Integrated Assessment, and the Earth system modeling

  1. Impacts of historic and projected land-cover, land-use, and land-management change on carbon and water fluxes: The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, D. M.; Lombardozzi, D. L.; Lawrence, P.; Hurtt, G. C.

    2017-12-01

    Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to intensify to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the broad question of impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) as well as more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, and data requirements in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. LUMIP is multi-faceted and aims to advance our understanding of land-use change from several perspectives. In particular, LUMIP includes a factorial set of land-only simulations that differ from each other with respect to the specific treatment of land use or land management (e.g., irrigation active or not, crop fertilization active or not, wood harvest on or not), or in terms of prescribed climate. This factorial series of experiments serves several purposes and is designed to provide a detailed assessment of how the specification of land-cover change and land management affects the carbon, water, and energy cycle response to land-use change. The potential analyses that are possible through this set of experiments are vast. For example, comparing a control experiment with all land management active to an experiment with no irrigation allows a multi-model assessment of whether or not the increasing use of irrigation during the 20th century is likely to have significantly altered trends of regional water and energy fluxes (and therefore climate) and/or crop yield and carbon fluxes in agricultural regions. Here, we will present preliminary results from the factorial set of experiments utilizing the Community Land Model (CLM5). The analyses presented here will help guide multi-model analyses once the full set of LUMIP simulations are available.

  2. The Healing Land : Research Methods in Kalahari Communities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Healing Land (Isaacson, 2001a) is a vivid, experiential account of Rupert Isaacson's journey towards personal and community healing among the Khomani Bushmen of the Kalahari Desert in South Africa. This paper provides a detailed analysis of The Healing Land in relation to Isaacson's research methodology and ...

  3. How Are Feedbacks Represented in Land Models?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Chen

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Land systems are characterised by many feedbacks that can result in complex system behaviour. We defined feedbacks as the two-way influences between the land use system and a related system (e.g., climate, soils and markets, both of which are encompassed by the land system. Land models that include feedbacks thus probably more accurately mimic how land systems respond to, e.g., policy or climate change. However, representing feedbacks in land models is a challenge. We reviewed articles incorporating feedbacks into land models and analysed each with predefined indicators. We found that (1 most modelled feedbacks couple land use systems with transport, soil and market systems, while only a few include feedbacks between land use and social systems or climate systems; (2 equation-based land use models that follow a top-down approach prevail; and (3 feedbacks’ effects on system behaviour remain relatively unexplored. We recommend that land system modellers (1 consider feedbacks between land use systems and social systems; (2 adopt (bottom-up approaches suited to incorporating spatial heterogeneity and better representing land use decision-making; and (3 pay more attention to nonlinear system behaviour and its implications for land system management and policy.

  4. Land cover change or land use intensification: simulating land system change with a global-scale land change model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Asselen, S.; Verburg, P.H.

    2013-01-01

    Land-use change is both a cause and consequence of many biophysical and socioeconomic changes. The CLUMondo model provides an innovative approach for global land-use change modeling to support integrated assessments. Demands for goods and services are, in the model, supplied by a variety of land

  5. Scaling community land protection in the face of large-land ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    A mix of research methods will examine the institutional and policy barriers to securing tenure, how land registration processes and community-level rules can protect ... It will also develop and test approaches to enhancing their participation in decision-making over communal land and during negotiations with investors.

  6. SOME ASPECTS OF SUSTAINABLE LAND MANAGEMENT AGRICULTURAL LAND USE AREAS WITHIN THE TERRITORIAL COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kapinos N.

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Land Fund in Ukraine is experiencing excessive human impact, which is reflected in its performance exceeding the allowable agricultural development and land structure imbalance. The environmental condition of land resources close to critical. Among the largest land area occupied by agricultural land (71% of which - 76% is arable land. Violation environmentally acceptable ratio of arable land, natural grasslands and forests negatively affected the sustainability of agricultural landscapes. Throughout the widespread land degradation processes, among which the most ambitious is the erosion (about 57.5% of the territory, pollution (20% of the territory, flooding (about 12% of the territory. Sustainable (balanced land is one of the key factors of sustainable nature of territorial entities and may be formed of a priority, taking into account environmental factors. In ecological optimization based on value criteria ekolohostabilizuyuchyh and anthropogenic pressures lands should necessarily provide for withdrawal of intensive land use, which in its modal properties can not ensure sustainability of land use. However, today in Ukraine within the territories of communities no project development to optimize land use on the basis of sustainable development. Accordingly, the purpose of the article was the study of certain aspects of Land Management sustainable development of agricultural land within the territories of local communities. The current structure of the land fund of Ukraine was actually formed in the Soviet period, under the influence of policies of extensive agricultural development. Violation environmentally acceptable ratio of arable land, natural grasslands and forests negatively affected the stability and condition of land, which is confirmed by relevant research. In such circumstances, balancing the land proposed to carry out in two stages - the ecological and economic. In ecological optimization criteria based on land value necessarily

  7. A five-Stage Socio-Economic Change Model of the Impact of Resettlement Policy on Human Welfare in Semi-Arid Lands of Kenya: A Case Study of Muuni Community in Makueni District

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gitunu, A.M.M.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses relocation stress experienced by an agro-pastoral community of Makueni district during eviction from their former settlement areas thus causing the untold socio-cultural and economic suffering during eviction, transitional, shifting and resettlement stages. The relocation involved three communities formerly settled in Chyulu hills in Makueni district, Kalembwani in Kajiado district and Kibwezi township in Makueni district whose occupation was agro-pastoral production. The relocation was involuntary and unplanned and had adversely disrupted their food-security, socio-cultural and economic welfare. The study of the Muuni community spanned a period of over three years (1996 - 1999). The '5-stage socio-economic change model' studied in this study shows the ensuring adjustment process most likely to be experienced when top-down policy decisions are taken and how this affects farming communities within semi-arid lands of Kenya where involuntary and unplanned resettlement of people takes place

  8. Haudenosaunee Genealogies: Conflict and Community in the Oneida Land Claim

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ackley, Kristina

    2009-01-01

    The Oneidas have a history marked by land dispossession and removal from a once vast homeland. In 2009, there are three Oneida communities that share in litigation for the return of the homeland; in New York (2,000 members), at the Thames community near Southwold, Ontario (5,000 members), and in Wisconsin (15,000 members). Those hostile to the…

  9. community participatory sustainable land management byelaw

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    2014-02-11

    Feb 11, 2014 ... Public SWC investments were largely based Focus on low cost SLM practices on food for work or cash ... land and environmental protection, livestock production and marketing agency, .... Government policy prohibit free grazing, but SWC structures destroyed, trees trampled and .... Nutrient flows and.

  10. Land Surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) - A Generalized Framework for Land Surface Model Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Santanello, Joseph; Harrison, Ken; Liu, Yuqiong; Shaw, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Model evaluation and verification are key in improving the usage and applicability of simulation models for real-world applications. In this article, the development and capabilities of a formal system for land surface model evaluation called the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) is described. LVT is designed to provide an integrated environment for systematic land model evaluation and facilitates a range of verification approaches and analysis capabilities. LVT operates across multiple temporal and spatial scales and employs a large suite of in-situ, remotely sensed and other model and reanalysis datasets in their native formats. In addition to the traditional accuracy-based measures, LVT also includes uncertainty and ensemble diagnostics, information theory measures, spatial similarity metrics and scale decomposition techniques that provide novel ways for performing diagnostic model evaluations. Though LVT was originally designed to support the land surface modeling and data assimilation framework known as the Land Information System (LIS), it also supports hydrological data products from other, non-LIS environments. In addition, the analysis of diagnostics from various computational subsystems of LIS including data assimilation, optimization and uncertainty estimation are supported within LVT. Together, LIS and LVT provide a robust end-to-end environment for enabling the concepts of model data fusion for hydrological applications. The evolving capabilities of LVT framework are expected to facilitate rapid model evaluation efforts and aid the definition and refinement of formal evaluation procedures for the land surface modeling community.

  11. Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) - a generalized framework for land surface model evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, S. V.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Santanello, J.; Harrison, K.; Liu, Y.; Shaw, M.

    2012-06-01

    Model evaluation and verification are key in improving the usage and applicability of simulation models for real-world applications. In this article, the development and capabilities of a formal system for land surface model evaluation called the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) is described. LVT is designed to provide an integrated environment for systematic land model evaluation and facilitates a range of verification approaches and analysis capabilities. LVT operates across multiple temporal and spatial scales and employs a large suite of in-situ, remotely sensed and other model and reanalysis datasets in their native formats. In addition to the traditional accuracy-based measures, LVT also includes uncertainty and ensemble diagnostics, information theory measures, spatial similarity metrics and scale decomposition techniques that provide novel ways for performing diagnostic model evaluations. Though LVT was originally designed to support the land surface modeling and data assimilation framework known as the Land Information System (LIS), it supports hydrological data products from non-LIS environments as well. In addition, the analysis of diagnostics from various computational subsystems of LIS including data assimilation, optimization and uncertainty estimation are supported within LVT. Together, LIS and LVT provide a robust end-to-end environment for enabling the concepts of model data fusion for hydrological applications. The evolving capabilities of LVT framework are expected to facilitate rapid model evaluation efforts and aid the definition and refinement of formal evaluation procedures for the land surface modeling community.

  12. Modelling land degradation in IMAGE 2

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hootsmans RM; Bouwman AF; Leemans R; Kreileman GJJ; MNV

    2001-01-01

    Food security may be threatened by loss of soil productivity as a result of human-induced land degradation. Water erosion is the most important cause of land degradation, and its effects are irreversible. This report describes the IMAGE land degradation model developed for describing current and

  13. Land use intensity controls actinobacterial community structure

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Hill, P.; Krištůfek, Václav; Dijkhuizen, L.; Boddy, Ch.; Kroetsch, D.; van Elsas, J.D.

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 61, č. 2 (2011), s. 286-302 ISSN 0095-3628 R&D Projects: GA MŠk LC06066; GA MŠk 2B06154 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60660521 Keywords : actinobacterial community structure * DNA * soils Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.912, year: 2011

  14. Land use influences arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiang, Dan; Verbruggen, Erik; Hu, Yajun; Veresoglou, Stavros D; Rillig, Matthias C; Zhou, Wenping; Xu, Tianle; Li, Huan; Hao, Zhipeng; Chen, Yongliang; Chen, Baodong

    2014-12-01

    We performed a landscape-scale investigation to compare the arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) communities between grasslands and farmlands in the farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China. AMF richness and community composition were examined with 454 pyrosequencing. Structural equation modelling (SEM) and multivariate analyses were applied to disentangle the direct and indirect effects (mediated by multiple environmental factors) of land use on AMF. Land use conversion from grassland to farmland significantly reduced AMF richness and extraradical hyphal length density, and these land use types also differed significantly in AMF community composition. SEM showed that the effects of land use on AMF richness and hyphal length density in soil were primarily mediated by available phosphorus and soil structural quality. Soil texture was the strongest predictor of AMF community composition. Soil carbon, nitrogen and soil pH were also significantly correlated with AMF community composition, indicating that these abiotic variables could be responsible for some of the community composition differences among sites. Our study shows that land use has a partly predictable effect on AMF communities across this ecologically relevant area of China, and indicates that high soil phosphorus concentrations and poor soil structure are particularly detrimental to AMF in this fragile ecosystem. © 2014 The Author. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  15. Pairing FLUXNET sites to validate model representations of land-use/land-cover change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Guo, Zhichang; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2018-01-01

    Land surface energy and water fluxes play an important role in land-atmosphere interactions, especially for the climatic feedback effects driven by land-use/land-cover change (LULCC). These have long been documented in model-based studies, but the performance of land surface models in representing LULCC-induced responses has not been investigated well. In this study, measurements from proximate paired (open versus forest) flux tower sites are used to represent observed deforestation-induced changes in surface fluxes, which are compared with simulations from the Community Land Model (CLM) and the Noah Multi-Parameterization (Noah-MP) land model. Point-scale simulations suggest the CLM can represent the observed diurnal and seasonal changes in net radiation (Rnet) and ground heat flux (G), but difficulties remain in the energy partitioning between latent (LE) and sensible (H) heat flux. The CLM does not capture the observed decreased daytime LE, and overestimates the increased H during summer. These deficiencies are mainly associated with models' greater biases over forest land-cover types and the parameterization of soil evaporation. Global gridded simulations with the CLM show uncertainties in the estimation of LE and H at the grid level for regional and global simulations. Noah-MP exhibits a similar ability to simulate the surface flux changes, but with larger biases in H, G, and Rnet change during late winter and early spring, which are related to a deficiency in estimating albedo. Differences in meteorological conditions between paired sites is not a factor in these results. Attention needs to be devoted to improving the representation of surface heat flux processes in land models to increase confidence in LULCC simulations.

  16. Land-use change arising from rural land exchange : an agent-based simulation model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, Martha M.; Alam, Shah Jamal; van Dijk, Jerry|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/29612642X; Rounsevell, Mark D. A.

    Land exchange can be a major factor driving land-use change in regions with high pressure on land, but is generally not incorporated in land-use change models. Here we present an agent-based model to simulate land-use change arising from land exchange between multiple agent types representing

  17. Soil microbial community response to land use and various soil ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Soil microbial community response to land use and various soil elements in a city landscape of north China. ... African Journal of Biotechnology ... Legumes played an important role in stimulating the growth and reproduction of various soil microbial populations, accordingly promoting the microbial catabolic activity.

  18. Participatory land use planning for community based forest ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Participatory land use planning for community based forest management in South-Eastern Nigeria. FE Bisong, A Animashaun. Abstract. No Abstract. Lwati: A Journal of Contemporary Research Vol. 4 () 2007: pp.329-347. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  19. Global scale analysis and evaluation of an improved mechanistic representation of plant nitrogen and carbon dynamics in the Community Land Model (CLM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghimire, B.; Riley, W. J.; Koven, C. D.; Randerson, J. T.; Mu, M.; Kattge, J.; Rogers, A.; Reich, P. B.

    2014-12-01

    In many ecosystems, nitrogen is the most limiting nutrient for plant growth and productivity. However mechanistic representation of nitrogen uptake linked to root traits, and functional nitrogen allocation among different leaf enzymes involved in respiration and photosynthesis is currently lacking in Earth System models. The linkage between nitrogen availability and plant productivity is simplistically represented by potential photosynthesis rates, and is subsequently downregulated depending on nitrogen supply and other nitrogen consumers in the model (e.g., nitrification). This type of potential photosynthesis rate calculation is problematic for several reasons. Firstly, plants do not photosynthesize at potential rates and then downregulate. Secondly, there is considerable subjectivity on the meaning of potential photosynthesis rates. Thirdly, there exists lack of understanding on modeling these potential photosynthesis rates in a changing climate. In addition to model structural issues in representing photosynthesis rates, the role of plant roots in nutrient acquisition have been largely ignored in Earth System models. For example, in CLM4.5, nitrogen uptake is linked to leaf level processes (e.g., primarily productivity) rather than root scale process involved in nitrogen uptake. We present a new plant model for CLM with an improved mechanistic presentation of plant nitrogen uptake based on root scale Michaelis Menten kinetics, and stronger linkages between leaf nitrogen and plant productivity by inferring relationships observed in global databases of plant traits (including the TRY database and several individual studies). We also incorporate improved representation of plant nitrogen leaf allocation, especially in tropical regions where significant over-prediction of plant growth and productivity in CLM4.5 simulations exist. We evaluate our improved global model simulations using the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) framework. We conclude that

  20. The Land Administration Domain Model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lemmen, C.; Van Oosterom, P.J.M.; Bennett, R.

    2015-01-01

    Societal drivers including poverty eradication, gender equality, indigenous recognition, adequate housing, sustainable agriculture, food security, climate change response, and good governance, influence contemporary land administration design. Equally, the opportunities provided by technological

  1. Downstream cumulative effects of land use on freshwater communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuglerová, L.; Kielstra, B. W.; Moore, D.; Richardson, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    Many streams and rivers are subject to disturbance from intense land use such as urbanization and agriculture, and this is especially obvious for small headwaters. Streams are spatially organized into networks where headwaters represent the tributaries and provide water, nutrients, and organic material to the main stems. Therefore perturbations within the headwaters might be cumulatively carried on downstream. Although we know that the disturbance of headwaters in urban and agricultural landscapes poses threats to downstream river reaches, the magnitude and severity of these changes for ecological communities is less known. We studied stream networks along a gradient of disturbance connected to land use intensity, from urbanized watersheds to watersheds placed in agricultural settings in the Greater Toronto Area. Further, we compared the patterns and processes found in the modified watershed to a control watershed, situated in a forested, less impacted landscape. Preliminary results suggest that hydrological modifications (flash floods), habitat loss (drainage and sewer systems), and water quality issues of small streams in urbanized and agricultural watersheds represent major disturbances and threats for aquatic and riparian biota on local as well as larger spatial scales. For example, communities of riparian plants are dominated by species typical of the land use on adjacent uplands as well as the dominant land use on the upstream contributing area, instead of riparian obligates commonly found in forested watersheds. Further, riparian communities in disturbed environments are dominated by invasive species. The changes in riparian communities are vital for various functions of riparian vegetation. Bank erosion control is suppressed, leading to severe channel transformations and sediment loadings in urbanized watersheds. Food sources for instream biota and thermal regimes are also changed, which further triggers alterations of in-stream biological communities

  2. Fuzzy optimization model for land use change

    OpenAIRE

    L. Jahanshahloo; E. Haghi

    2014-01-01

    There are some important questions in Land use change literature, for instance How much land to allocate to each of a number of land use type in order to maximization of (household or individual) rent -paying ability, minimization of environmental impacts or maximization of population income. In this paper, we want to investigate them and propose mathematical models to find an answer for these questions. Since Most of the parameters in this process are linguistics and fuzzy logic is a powerfu...

  3. Management of plant communities on set-aside land and its effects on earthworm communities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Gormsen, D.; Hedlund, K.; Korthals, G. W.; Mortimer, S. R.; Pižl, Václav; Šmilauerová, M.; Sugg, E.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 40, 3-4 (2004), s. 123-128 ISSN 1164-5563 Grant - others:Evropská unie(XE) ENV4-CT95-0002 Keywords : earthworm community * plant community * land use Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 0.776, year: 2004

  4. The Community Land Act in Kenya Opportunities and Challenges for Communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liz Alden Wily

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Kenya is the most recent African state to acknowledge customary tenure as producing lawful property rights, not merely rights of occupation and use on government or public lands. This paper researches this new legal environment. This promises land security for 6 to 10 million Kenyans, most of who are members of pastoral or other poorer rural communities. Analysis is prefaced with substantial background on legal trends continentally, but the focus is on Kenya’s Community Land Act, 2016, as the framework through which customary holdings are to be identified and registered. A main conclusion is that while Kenya’s law is positive and even cutting-edge in respects, legal loopholes place communities at risk of their lands not being as secure as promised ahead of formalization, and at risk of losing some of their most valuable lands during the formalization process. This is mainly due to overlapping claims by the national and local government authorities. Political will to apply the law is also weak. The truism that the law is never enough on its own to secure social change is illustrated. With or without legal protection, the assistance of non-state actors will be needed to help communities secure their lands under formal collective entitlements. The need for judicial interpretation of disputed legal provisions may also be required to ensure new constitutional principles are delivered.

  5. THE VALUE AND ROLE OF LAND MANAGEMENT AT THE LOCAL LEVEL IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL COMMUNITIES LAND

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Kapinos

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Planning of land use by land - is an integral part of the management of land use, which provides a mechanism by which decisions are coordinated among various local, regional and national authorities, and helps implement social responsibilities of public authorities in the use and protection of land and other natural resources. Today, during the implementation of the decentralization of power, much attention is given to the transition from the existing centralized approach to conventional land-use planning (conventional land use planning, which the world is seen more as a institutional approach (institutional approach to the agreed land use planning (rarticipatory land use planning, which puts the interests of the foundation rights of economic, environmental, technological and socio-cultural conditions. Accordingly, it is important to define the relationship between the components of local governance in land development and local communities to identify the main stages of its planning, which will allow to solve social and economic problems of land use while preserving the natural ecological sustainability of land and other natural resources like land development and land use planning. It is also associated with a change in the land system ofUkraineand the transition to market land relations, which requires the transition to a new system of land use and proper planning it with the realities of today. During the 2000-2016 biennium. Ukraine has experienced an unprecedented reform of collective agricultural enterprises in market-oriented agricultural farm land for the project made it possible to dramatically increase the share of agricultural land owned by agricultural cooperatives (14.5%, limited liability companies (26.4% and private (private rental companies (10.4%. Nearly 405,000 farmers based on their land shares (shares created over an area of more than 1.6 mln. Ha of farmland farms. However, after the enactment of the Land Code of Ukraine

  6. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Reichle, Rolf H.

    2009-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov; Kumar et al., 2006; Peters- Lidard et al.,2007) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite- and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected ase co-winner of NASA's 2005 Software of the Year award. LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has evolved from two earlier efforts North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS; Mitchell et al. 2004) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS; Rodell al. 2004) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations. In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by

  7. Multi-Scale Hydrometeorological Modeling, Land Data Assimilation and Parameter Estimation with the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2011-01-01

    The Land Information System (LIS; http://lis.gsfc.nasa.gov) is a flexible land surface modeling framework that has been developed with the goal of integrating satellite-and ground-based observational data products and advanced land surface modeling techniques to produce optimal fields of land surface states and fluxes. As such, LIS represents a step towards the next generation land component of an integrated Earth system model. In recognition of LIS object-oriented software design, use and impact in the land surface and hydrometeorological modeling community, the LIS software was selected as a co-winner of NASA?s 2005 Software of the Year award.LIS facilitates the integration of observations from Earth-observing systems and predictions and forecasts from Earth System and Earth science models into the decision-making processes of partnering agency and national organizations. Due to its flexible software design, LIS can serve both as a Problem Solving Environment (PSE) for hydrologic research to enable accurate global water and energy cycle predictions, and as a Decision Support System (DSS) to generate useful information for application areas including disaster management, water resources management, agricultural management, numerical weather prediction, air quality and military mobility assessment. LIS has e volved from two earlier efforts -- North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) that focused primarily on improving numerical weather prediction skills by improving the characterization of the land surface conditions. Both of GLDAS and NLDAS now use specific configurations of the LIS software in their current implementations.In addition, LIS was recently transitioned into operations at the US Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA) to ultimately replace their Agricultural Meteorology (AGRMET) system, and is also used routinely by NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/Environmental Modeling

  8. Comparison of Land Skin Temperature from a Land Model, Remote Sensing, and In-situ Measurement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Aihui; Barlage, Michael; Zeng, Xubin; Draper, Clara Sophie

    2014-01-01

    Land skin temperature (Ts) is an important parameter in the energy exchange between the land surface and atmosphere. Here hourly Ts from the Community Land Model Version 4.0, MODIS satellite observations, and in-situ observations in 2003 were compared. Compared with the in-situ observations over four semi-arid stations, both MODIS and modeled Ts show negative biases, but MODIS shows an overall better performance. Global distribution of differences between MODIS and modeled Ts shows diurnal, seasonal, and spatial variations. Over sparsely vegetated areas, the model Ts is generally lower than the MODIS observed Ts during the daytime, while the situation is opposite at nighttime. The revision of roughness length for heat and the constraint of minimum friction velocity from Zeng et al. [2012] bring the modeled Ts closer to MODIS during the day, and have little effect on Ts at night. Five factors contributing to the Ts differences between the model and MODIS are identified, including the difficulty in properly accounting for cloud cover information at the appropriate temporal and spatial resolutions, and uncertainties in surface energy balance computation, atmospheric forcing data, surface emissivity, and MODIS Ts data. These findings have implications for the cross-evaluation of modeled and remotely sensed Ts, as well as the data assimilation of Ts observations into Earth system models.

  9. Land-use intensification causes multitrophic homogenization of grassland communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gossner, Martin M; Lewinsohn, Thomas M; Kahl, Tiemo; Grassein, Fabrice; Boch, Steffen; Prati, Daniel; Birkhofer, Klaus; Renner, Swen C; Sikorski, Johannes; Wubet, Tesfaye; Arndt, Hartmut; Baumgartner, Vanessa; Blaser, Stefan; Blüthgen, Nico; Börschig, Carmen; Buscot, Francois; Diekötter, Tim; Jorge, Leonardo Ré; Jung, Kirsten; Keyel, Alexander C; Klein, Alexandra-Maria; Klemmer, Sandra; Krauss, Jochen; Lange, Markus; Müller, Jörg; Overmann, Jörg; Pašalić, Esther; Penone, Caterina; Perović, David J; Purschke, Oliver; Schall, Peter; Socher, Stephanie A; Sonnemann, Ilja; Tschapka, Marco; Tscharntke, Teja; Türke, Manfred; Venter, Paul Christiaan; Weiner, Christiane N; Werner, Michael; Wolters, Volkmar; Wurst, Susanne; Westphal, Catrin; Fischer, Markus; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Allan, Eric

    2016-12-08

    Land-use intensification is a major driver of biodiversity loss. Alongside reductions in local species diversity, biotic homogenization at larger spatial scales is of great concern for conservation. Biotic homogenization means a decrease in β-diversity (the compositional dissimilarity between sites). Most studies have investigated losses in local (α)-diversity and neglected biodiversity loss at larger spatial scales. Studies addressing β-diversity have focused on single or a few organism groups (for example, ref. 4), and it is thus unknown whether land-use intensification homogenizes communities at different trophic levels, above- and belowground. Here we show that even moderate increases in local land-use intensity (LUI) cause biotic homogenization across microbial, plant and animal groups, both above- and belowground, and that this is largely independent of changes in α-diversity. We analysed a unique grassland biodiversity dataset, with abundances of more than 4,000 species belonging to 12 trophic groups. LUI, and, in particular, high mowing intensity, had consistent effects on β-diversity across groups, causing a homogenization of soil microbial, fungal pathogen, plant and arthropod communities. These effects were nonlinear and the strongest declines in β-diversity occurred in the transition from extensively managed to intermediate intensity grassland. LUI tended to reduce local α-diversity in aboveground groups, whereas the α-diversity increased in belowground groups. Correlations between the β-diversity of different groups, particularly between plants and their consumers, became weaker at high LUI. This suggests a loss of specialist species and is further evidence for biotic homogenization. The consistently negative effects of LUI on landscape-scale biodiversity underscore the high value of extensively managed grasslands for conserving multitrophic biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. Indeed, biotic homogenization rather than local diversity

  10. Advances in land modeling of KIAPS based on the Noah Land Surface Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koo, Myung-Seo; Baek, Sunghye; Seol, Kyung-Hee; Cho, Kyoungmi

    2017-08-01

    As of 2013, the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM) version 2.7.1 was implemented in a new global model being developed at the Korea Institute of Atmospheric Prediction Systems (KIAPS). This land surface scheme is further refined in two aspects, by adding new physical processes and by updating surface input parameters. Thus, the treatment of glacier land, sea ice, and snow cover are addressed more realistically. Inconsistencies in the amount of absorbed solar flux at ground level by the land surface and radiative processes are rectified. In addition, new parameters are available by using 1-km land cover data, which had usually not been possible at a global scale. Land surface albedo/emissivity climatology is newly created using Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellitebased data and adjusted parameterization. These updates have been applied to the KIAPS-developed model and generally provide a positive impact on near-surface weather forecasting.

  11. Application of Land Administration Domain Model to Recognition of Indigenous Community Rights in Indian Forests : Indian Forest Rights Act, 2006, examined with its Spatial Dimension

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ghawana, Tarun; Hespanha, João Paulo; Zevenbergen, Jaap

    2012-01-01

    Recognizing the importance of protecting indigenous property rights, as acknowledged by worldwide organizations such as the United Nations, and specifically the poor and badly governed forested communities, this paper elected as its Use Case the implementation of the Indian Forest Rights Act from

  12. LAND COVER ASSESSMENT OF INDIGENOUS COMMUNITIES IN THE BOSAWAS REGION OF NICARAGUA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Data derived from remotely sensed images were utilized to conduct land cover assessments of three indigenous communities in northern Nicaragua. Historical land use, present land cover and land cover change processes were all identified through the use of a geographic informat...

  13. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Rosbjerg, Dan; Butts, M.B.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches......, and the difficulties inherent in various evaluation procedures are presented. Finally, the dynamic coupling of hydrological and atmospheric models is explored, and the perspectives of such efforts are discussed......., because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opportunities for evaluation of distributed land-surface models through application of remote sensing are discussed in detail...

  14. Models meet data: Challenges and opportunities in implementing land management in Earth system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pongratz, Julia; Dolman, Han; Don, Axel; Erb, Karl-Heinz; Fuchs, Richard; Herold, Martin; Jones, Chris; Kuemmerle, Tobias; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Meyfroidt, Patrick; Naudts, Kim

    2018-04-01

    As the applications of Earth system models (ESMs) move from general climate projections toward questions of mitigation and adaptation, the inclusion of land management practices in these models becomes crucial. We carried out a survey among modeling groups to show an evolution from models able only to deal with land-cover change to more sophisticated approaches that allow also for the partial integration of land management changes. For the longer term a comprehensive land management representation can be anticipated for all major models. To guide the prioritization of implementation, we evaluate ten land management practices-forestry harvest, tree species selection, grazing and mowing harvest, crop harvest, crop species selection, irrigation, wetland drainage, fertilization, tillage, and fire-for (1) their importance on the Earth system, (2) the possibility of implementing them in state-of-the-art ESMs, and (3) availability of required input data. Matching these criteria, we identify "low-hanging fruits" for the inclusion in ESMs, such as basic implementations of crop and forestry harvest and fertilization. We also identify research requirements for specific communities to address the remaining land management practices. Data availability severely hampers modeling the most extensive land management practice, grazing and mowing harvest, and is a limiting factor for a comprehensive implementation of most other practices. Inadequate process understanding hampers even a basic assessment of crop species selection and tillage effects. The need for multiple advanced model structures will be the challenge for a comprehensive implementation of most practices but considerable synergy can be gained using the same structures for different practices. A continuous and closer collaboration of the modeling, Earth observation, and land system science communities is thus required to achieve the inclusion of land management in ESMs. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modelling the effect of land use change on hydrological model parameters via linearized calibration method in the upstream of Huaihe River Basin, China. ... is presented, based on the analysis of the problems of the objective function of the ...

  16. Modeling Historical Land Cover and Land Use: A Review fromContemporary Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laura Alfonsina Chang-Martínez

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Spatially-explicit land cover land use change (LCLUC models are becoming increasingly useful tools for historians and archaeologists. Such kinds of models have been developed and used by geographers, ecologists and land managers over the last few decades to carry out prospective scenarios. In this paper, we review historical models to compare them with prospective models, with the assumption that the ample experience gained in the development of models of prospective simulation can benefit the development of models having as their objective the simulation of changes that happened in the past. The review is divided into three sections: in the first section, we explain the functioning of contemporary LCLUC models; in the second section, we analyze historical LCLUC models; in the third section, we compare the former two types of models, and finally, we discuss the contributions to historical LCLUC models of contemporary LCLUC models.

  17. Enhancing the representation of subgrid land surface characteristics in land surface models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Ke

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Land surface heterogeneity has long been recognized as important to represent in the land surface models. In most existing land surface models, the spatial variability of surface cover is represented as subgrid composition of multiple surface cover types, although subgrid topography also has major controls on surface processes. In this study, we developed a new subgrid classification method (SGC that accounts for variability of both topography and vegetation cover. Each model grid cell was represented with a variable number of elevation classes and each elevation class was further described by a variable number of vegetation types optimized for each model grid given a predetermined total number of land response units (LRUs. The subgrid structure of the Community Land Model (CLM was used to illustrate the newly developed method in this study. Although the new method increases the computational burden in the model simulation compared to the CLM subgrid vegetation representation, it greatly reduced the variations of elevation within each subgrid class and is able to explain at least 80% of the total subgrid plant functional types (PFTs. The new method was also evaluated against two other subgrid methods (SGC1 and SGC2 that assigned fixed numbers of elevation and vegetation classes for each model grid (SGC1: M elevation bands–N PFTs method; SGC2: N PFTs–M elevation bands method. Implemented at five model resolutions (0.1°, 0.25°, 0.5°, 1.0°and 2.0° with three maximum-allowed total number of LRUs (i.e., NLRU of 24, 18 and 12 over North America (NA, the new method yielded more computationally efficient subgrid representation compared to SGC1 and SGC2, particularly at coarser model resolutions and moderate computational intensity (NLRU = 18. It also explained the most PFTs and elevation variability that is more homogeneously distributed spatially. The SGC method will be implemented in CLM over the NA continent to assess its impacts on

  18. Constraining the JULES land-surface model for different land-use types using citizen-science generated hydrological data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chou, H. K.; Ochoa-Tocachi, B. F.; Buytaert, W.

    2017-12-01

    Community land surface models such as JULES are increasingly used for hydrological assessment because of their state-of-the-art representation of land-surface processes. However, a major weakness of JULES and other land surface models is the limited number of land surface parameterizations that is available. Therefore, this study explores the use of data from a network of catchments under homogeneous land-use to generate parameter "libraries" to extent the land surface parameterizations of JULES. The network (called iMHEA) is part of a grassroots initiative to characterise the hydrological response of different Andean ecosystems, and collects data on streamflow, precipitation, and several weather variables at a high temporal resolution. The tropical Andes are a useful case study because of the complexity of meteorological and geographical conditions combined with extremely heterogeneous land-use that result in a wide range of hydrological responses. We then calibrated JULES for each land-use represented in the iMHEA dataset. For the individual land-use types, the results show improved simulations of streamflow when using the calibrated parameters with respect to default values. In particular, the partitioning between surface and subsurface flows can be improved. But also, on a regional scale, hydrological modelling was greatly benefitted from constraining parameters using such distributed citizen-science generated streamflow data. This study demonstrates the modelling and prediction on regional hydrology by integrating citizen science and land surface model. In the context of hydrological study, the limitation of data scarcity could be solved indeed by using this framework. Improved predictions of such impacts could be leveraged by catchment managers to guide watershed interventions, to evaluate their effectiveness, and to minimize risks.

  19. Land administration domain model is an ISO standard now

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lemmen, Christiaan; van Oosterom, Peter; Uitermark, Harry; de Zeeuw, Kees

    2013-01-01

    A group of land administration professionals initiated the development of a data model that facilitates the quick and efficient set-up of land registrations. Just like social issues benefit from proper land administration, land administration systems themselves benefit from proper data standards. In

  20. No land in sight : impact of caste on slum communities' access to land in Bangalore, India

    OpenAIRE

    Narayana, Rakesh

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the impact of caste on slum communities’ access to urban land in Bangalore, India. Historically, pattern of land ownership in India was inextricably melded together with caste wherein the dominant castes owned land and excluded Dalits from land access. Slums can be seen as primarily an urban land access issue. A majority of slum residents in Bangalore are Dalits though they form a minority in the overall population. The study adopts a Social Exclusion paradigm to understan...

  1. Committed carbon emissions, deforestation, and community land conversion from oil palm plantation expansion in West Kalimantan, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Kimberly M; Curran, Lisa M; Ratnasari, Dessy; Pittman, Alice M; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S; Asner, Gregory P; Trigg, Simon N; Gaveau, David A; Lawrence, Deborah; Rodrigues, Hermann O

    2012-05-08

    Industrial agricultural plantations are a rapidly increasing yet largely unmeasured source of tropical land cover change. Here, we evaluate impacts of oil palm plantation development on land cover, carbon flux, and agrarian community lands in West Kalimantan, Indonesian Borneo. With a spatially explicit land change/carbon bookkeeping model, parameterized using high-resolution satellite time series and informed by socioeconomic surveys, we assess previous and project future plantation expansion under five scenarios. Although fire was the primary proximate cause of 1989-2008 deforestation (93%) and net carbon emissions (69%), by 2007-2008, oil palm directly caused 27% of total and 40% of peatland deforestation. Plantation land sources exhibited distinctive temporal dynamics, comprising 81% forests on mineral soils (1994-2001), shifting to 69% peatlands (2008-2011). Plantation leases reveal vast development potential. In 2008, leases spanned ∼65% of the region, including 62% on peatlands and 59% of community-managed lands, yet carbon emissions. Intact forest cover declines to 4%, and the proportion of emissions sourced from peatlands increases 38%. Prohibiting intact and logged forest and peatland conversion to oil palm reduces emissions only 4% below BAU, because of continued uncontrolled fire. Protecting logged forests achieves greater carbon emissions reductions (21%) than protecting intact forests alone (9%) and is critical for mitigating carbon emissions. Extensive allocated leases constrain land management options, requiring trade-offs among oil palm production, carbon emissions mitigation, and maintaining community landholdings.

  2. Understanding land acquisitions in West Africa: A community-based ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-26

    Apr 26, 2016 ... AMINE BOULHIAN Large-scale land acquisitions of traditional rice paddies such as ... Women are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of large-scale land ... There is ample evidence that addressing gender inequalities and ...

  3. Effects of land markets and land management on ecosystem function: A framework for modelling exurban land-change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Robinson, D.T.; Sun, S.; Hutchins, M.; Riolo, R.; Brown, D.G.; Parker, D.C.; Filatova, Tatiana; Currie, W.S.; Kiger, S.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the conceptual design and application of a new land-change modelling framework that represents geographical, sociological, economic, and ecological aspects of a land system. The framework provides an overarching design that can be extended into specific model implementations to

  4. Evaluation of historical land cover, land use, and land-use change emissions in the GCAM integrated assessment model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Janetos, A. C.; Zhou, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are often used as science-based decision-support tools for evaluating the consequences of climate and energy policies, and their use in this framework is likely to increase in the future. However, quantitative evaluation of these models has been somewhat limited for a variety of reasons, including data availability, data quality, and the inherent challenges in projections of societal values and decision-making. In this analysis, we identify and confront methodological challenges involved in evaluating the agriculture and land use component of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. GCAM then calculates both emissions from land-use practices, and long-term changes in carbon stocks in different land uses, thus providing simulation information that can be compared to observed historical data. In this work, we compare GCAM results, both in recent historic and future time periods, to historical data sets. We focus on land use, land cover, land-use change emissions, and albedo.

  5. Towards a community Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blackmon, M.

    2003-04-01

    The Community Climate System Model, version 2 (CCSM2), was released in June 2002. CCSM2 has several new components and features, which I will discuss briefly. I will also show a few results from a multi-century equilibrium run with this model, emphasizing the improvements over the earlier simulation using the original CSM. A few flaws and inadequacies in CCSM2 have been identified. I will also discuss briefly work underway to improve the model and present results, if available. CCSM2, with improvements, will be the basis for the development of a Community Earth System Model (CESM). The highest priority for expansion of the model involves incorporation of biogeosciences into the coupled model system, with emphasis given to the carbon, nitrogen and iron cycles. The overall goal of the biogeosciences project within CESM is to understand the regulation of planetary energetics, planetary ecology, and planetary metabolism through exchanges of energy, momentum, and materials among atmosphere, land, and ocean, and the response of the climate system through these processes to changes in land cover and land use. In particular, this research addresses how biogeochemical coupling of carbon, nitrogen, and iron cycles affects climate and how human perturbations of these cycles alter climate. To accomplish these goals, the Community Land Model, the land component of CCSM2, is being developed to include river routing, carbon and nitrogen cycles, emissions of mineral aerosols and biogenic volatile organic compounds, dry deposition of various gases, and vegetation dynamics. The carbon and nitrogen cycles are being implemented using parameterizations developed as part of a state-of-the-art ecosystem biogeochemistry model. The primary goal of this research is to provide an accurate net flux of CO2 between the land and the atmosphere so that CESM can be used to study the dynamics of the coupled climate-carbon system. Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds are also based on a

  6. Land-use and land-management change: relationships with earthworm and fungi communities and soil structural properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spurgeon, David J; Keith, Aidan M; Schmidt, Olaf; Lammertsma, Dennis R; Faber, Jack H

    2013-12-01

    Change in land use and management can impact massively on soil ecosystems. Ecosystem engineers and other functional biodiversity in soils can be influenced directly by such change and this in turn can affect key soil functions. Here, we employ meta-analysis to provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of changes in land use and land management across a range of successional/extensification transitions (conventional arable → no or reduced tillage → grassland → wooded land) on community metrics for two functionally important soil taxa, earthworms and fungi. An analysis of the relationships between community change and soil structural properties was also included. Meta-analysis highlighted a consistent trend of increased earthworm and fungal community abundances and complexity following transitions to lower intensity and later successional land uses. The greatest changes were seen for early stage transitions, such as introduction of reduced tillage regimes and conversion to grassland from arable land. Not all changes, however, result in positive effects on the assessed community metrics. For example, whether woodland conversion positively or negatively affects community size and complexity depends on woodland type and, potentially, the changes in soil properties, such as pH, that may occur during conversion. Alterations in soil communities tended to facilitate subsequent changes in soil structure and hydrology. For example, increasing earthworm abundances and functional group composition were shown to be positively correlated with water infiltration rate (dependent on tillage regime and habitat characteristics); while positive changes in fungal biomass measures were positively associated with soil microaggregate stability. These findings raise the potential to manage landscapes to increase ecosystem service provision from soil biota in relation to regulation of soil structure and water flow.

  7. Modelling past land use using archaeological and pollen data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, johan; Poska, Anneli; Gaillard-Lemdahl, Marie-José

    2016-04-01

    Accurate maps of past land use are necessary for studying the impact of anthropogenic land-cover changes on climate and biodiversity. We develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to reconstruct the land use using Gaussian Markov random fields. The model uses two observations sets: 1) archaeological data, representing human settlements, urbanization and agricultural findings; and 2) pollen-based land estimates of the three land-cover types Coniferous forest, Broadleaved forest and Unforested/Open land. The pollen based estimates are obtained from the REVEALS model, based on pollen counts from lakes and bogs. Our developed model uses the sparse pollen-based estimations to reconstruct the spatial continuous cover of three land cover types. Using the open-land component and the archaeological data, the extent of land-use is reconstructed. The model is applied on three time periods - centred around 1900 CE, 1000 and, 4000 BCE over Sweden for which both pollen-based estimates and archaeological data are available. To estimate the model parameters and land use, a block updated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is applied. Using the MCMC posterior samples uncertainties in land-use predictions are computed. Due to lack of good historic land use data, model results are evaluated by cross-validation. Keywords. Spatial reconstruction, Gaussian Markov random field, Fossil pollen records, Archaeological data, Human land-use, Prediction uncertainty

  8. A new MRI land surface model HAL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosaka, M.

    2011-12-01

    A land surface model HAL is newly developed for MRI-ESM1. It is used for the CMIP simulations. HAL consists of three submodels: SiByl (vegetation), SNOWA (snow) and SOILA (soil) in the current version. It also contains a land coupler LCUP which connects some submodels and an atmospheric model. The vegetation submodel SiByl has surface vegetation processes similar to JMA/SiB (Sato et al. 1987, Hirai et al. 2007). SiByl has 2 vegetation layers (canopy and grass) and calculates heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. The snow submodel SNOWA can have any number of snow layers and the maximum value is set to 8 for the CMIP5 experiments. Temperature, SWE, density, grain size and the aerosol deposition contents of each layer are predicted. The snow properties including the grain size are predicted due to snow metamorphism processes (Niwano et al., 2011), and the snow albedo is diagnosed from the aerosol mixing ratio, the snow properties and the temperature (Aoki et al., 2011). The soil submodel SOILA can also have any number of soil layers, and is composed of 14 soil layers in the CMIP5 experiments. The temperature of each layer is predicted by solving heat conduction equations. The soil moisture is predicted by solving the Darcy equation, in which hydraulic conductivity depends on the soil moisture. The land coupler LCUP is designed to enable the complicated constructions of the submidels. HAL can include some competing submodels (precise and detailed ones, and simpler ones), and they can run at the same simulations. LCUP enables a 2-step model validation, in which we compare the results of the detailed submodels with the in-situ observation directly at the 1st step, and follows the comparison between them and those of the simpler ones at the 2nd step. When the performances of the detailed ones are good, we can improve the simpler ones by using the detailed ones as reference models.

  9. Modeling Land-Use Decision Behavior with Bayesian Belief Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Inge Aalders

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to incorporate and manage the different drivers of land-use change in a modeling process is one of the key challenges because they are complex and are both quantitative and qualitative in nature. This paper uses Bayesian belief networks (BBN to incorporate characteristics of land managers in the modeling process and to enhance our understanding of land-use change based on the limited and disparate sources of information. One of the two models based on spatial data represented land managers in the form of a quantitative variable, the area of individual holdings, whereas the other model included qualitative data from a survey of land managers. Random samples from the spatial data provided evidence of the relationship between the different variables, which I used to develop the BBN structure. The model was tested for four different posterior probability distributions, and results showed that the trained and learned models are better at predicting land use than the uniform and random models. The inference from the model demonstrated the constraints that biophysical characteristics impose on land managers; for older land managers without heirs, there is a higher probability of the land use being arable agriculture. The results show the benefits of incorporating a more complex notion of land managers in land-use models, and of using different empirical data sources in the modeling process. Future research should focus on incorporating more complex social processes into the modeling structure, as well as incorporating spatio-temporal dynamics in a BBN.

  10. Reliable low precision simulations in land surface models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Andrew; Düben, Peter D.; MacLeod, David A.; Palmer, Tim N.

    2017-12-01

    Weather and climate models must continue to increase in both resolution and complexity in order that forecasts become more accurate and reliable. Moving to lower numerical precision may be an essential tool for coping with the demand for ever increasing model complexity in addition to increasing computing resources. However, there have been some concerns in the weather and climate modelling community over the suitability of lower precision for climate models, particularly for representing processes that change very slowly over long time-scales. These processes are difficult to represent using low precision due to time increments being systematically rounded to zero. Idealised simulations are used to demonstrate that a model of deep soil heat diffusion that fails when run in single precision can be modified to work correctly using low precision, by splitting up the model into a small higher precision part and a low precision part. This strategy retains the computational benefits of reduced precision whilst preserving accuracy. This same technique is also applied to a full complexity land surface model, resulting in rounding errors that are significantly smaller than initial condition and parameter uncertainties. Although lower precision will present some problems for the weather and climate modelling community, many of the problems can likely be overcome using a straightforward and physically motivated application of reduced precision.

  11. Radiological assessments of land disposal options: recent model developments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fearn, H.S.; Pinner, A.V.; Hemming, C.R.

    1984-10-01

    This report describes progress in the development of methodologies and models for assessing the radiological impact of the disposal of low and intermediate level wastes by (i) shallow land burial in simple trenches (land 1), (ii) shallow land burial in engineered facilities (land 2), and (iii) emplacement in mined repositories or existing cavities (land 3/4). In particular the report describes wasteform leaching models, for unconditioned and cemented waste, the role of engineered barriers of a shallow land burial facility in reducing the magnitude of doses arising from groundwater contact and a detailed consideration of the interactions between radioactive carbon and various media. (author)

  12. Modelling Participatory Geographic Information System for Customary Land Conflict Resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gyamera, E. A.; Arko-Adjei, A.; Duncan, E. E.; Kuma, J. S. Y.

    2017-11-01

    Since land contributes to about 73 % of most countries Gross Domestic Product (GDP), attention on land rights have tremendously increased globally. Conflicts over land have therefore become part of the major problems associated with land administration. However, the conventional mechanisms for land conflict resolution do not provide satisfactory result to disputants due to various factors. This study sought to develop a Framework of using Participatory Geographic Information System (PGIS) for customary land conflict resolution. The framework was modelled using Unified Modelling Language (UML). The PGIS framework, called butterfly model, consists of three units namely, Social Unit (SU), Technical Unit (TU) and Decision Making Unit (DMU). The name butterfly model for land conflict resolution was adopted for the framework based on its features and properties. The framework has therefore been recommended to be adopted for land conflict resolution in customary areas.

  13. Large extents of intensive land use limit community reorganization during climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, Tom H; Gillings, Simon; Pearce-Higgins, James W; Brereton, Tom; Crick, Humphrey Q P; Duffield, Simon J; Morecroft, Michael D; Roy, David B

    2017-06-01

    Climate change is increasingly altering the composition of ecological communities, in combination with other environmental pressures such as high-intensity land use. Pressures are expected to interact in their effects, but the extent to which intensive human land use constrains community responses to climate change is currently unclear. A generic indicator of climate change impact, the community temperature index (CTI), has previously been used to suggest that both bird and butterflies are successfully 'tracking' climate change. Here, we assessed community changes at over 600 English bird or butterfly monitoring sites over three decades and tested how the surrounding land has influenced these changes. We partitioned community changes into warm- and cold-associated assemblages and found that English bird communities have not reorganized successfully in response to climate change. CTI increases for birds are primarily attributable to the loss of cold-associated species, whilst for butterflies, warm-associated species have tended to increase. Importantly, the area of intensively managed land use around monitoring sites appears to influence these community changes, with large extents of intensively managed land limiting 'adaptive' community reorganization in response to climate change. Specifically, high-intensity land use appears to exacerbate declines in cold-adapted bird and butterfly species, and prevent increases in warm-associated birds. This has broad implications for managing landscapes to promote climate change adaptation. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Cloud-enabled large-scale land surface model simulations with the NASA Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duffy, D.; Vaughan, G.; Clark, M. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Nijssen, B.; Nearing, G. S.; Rheingrover, S.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J. V.

    2017-12-01

    Developed by the Hydrological Sciences Laboratory at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), the Land Information System (LIS) is a high-performance software framework for terrestrial hydrology modeling and data assimilation. LIS provides the ability to integrate satellite and ground-based observational products and advanced modeling algorithms to extract land surface states and fluxes. Through a partnership with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Washington, the LIS model is currently being extended to include the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA). With the addition of SUMMA in LIS, meaningful simulations containing a large multi-model ensemble will be enabled and can provide advanced probabilistic continental-domain modeling capabilities at spatial scales relevant for water managers. The resulting LIS/SUMMA application framework is difficult for non-experts to install due to the large amount of dependencies on specific versions of operating systems, libraries, and compilers. This has created a significant barrier to entry for domain scientists that are interested in using the software on their own systems or in the cloud. In addition, the requirement to support multiple run time environments across the LIS community has created a significant burden on the NASA team. To overcome these challenges, LIS/SUMMA has been deployed using Linux containers, which allows for an entire software package along with all dependences to be installed within a working runtime environment, and Kubernetes, which orchestrates the deployment of a cluster of containers. Within a cloud environment, users can now easily create a cluster of virtual machines and run large-scale LIS/SUMMA simulations. Installations that have taken weeks and months can now be performed in minutes of time. This presentation will discuss the steps required to create a cloud-enabled large-scale simulation, present examples of its use, and

  15. Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

    2010-01-01

    Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return

  16. A GIS-based hedonic price model for agricultural land

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demetriou, Demetris

    2015-06-01

    Land consolidation is a very effective land management planning approach that aims towards rural/agricultural sustainable development. Land reallocation which involves land tenure restructuring is the most important, complex and time consuming component of land consolidation. Land reallocation relies on land valuation since its fundamental principle provides that after consolidation, each landowner shall be granted a property of an aggregate value that is approximately the same as the value of the property owned prior to consolidation. Therefore, land value is the crucial factor for the land reallocation process and hence for the success and acceptance of the final land consolidation plan. Land valuation is a process of assigning values to all parcels (and its contents) and it is usually carried out by an ad-hoc committee. However, the process faces some problems such as it is time consuming hence costly, outcomes may present inconsistency since it is carried out manually and empirically without employing systematic analytical tools and in particular spatial analysis tools and techniques such as statistical/mathematical. A solution to these problems can be the employment of mass appraisal land valuation methods using automated valuation models (AVM) based on international standards. In this context, this paper presents a spatial based linear hedonic price model which has been developed and tested in a case study land consolidation area in Cyprus. Results showed that the AVM is capable to produce acceptable in terms of accuracy and reliability land values and to reduce time hence cost required by around 80%.

  17. A predictive pilot model for STOL aircraft landing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinman, D. L.; Killingsworth, W. R.

    1974-01-01

    An optimal control approach has been used to model pilot performance during STOL flare and landing. The model is used to predict pilot landing performance for three STOL configurations, each having a different level of automatic control augmentation. Model predictions are compared with flight simulator data. It is concluded that the model can be effective design tool for studying analytically the effects of display modifications, different stability augmentation systems, and proposed changes in the landing area geometry.

  18. Representing Reservoir Stratification in Land Surface and Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yigzaw, W.; Li, H. Y.; Leung, L. R.; Hejazi, M. I.; Voisin, N.; Payn, R. A.; Demissie, Y.

    2017-12-01

    A one-dimensional reservoir stratification modeling has been developed as part of Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport (MOSART), which is the river transport model used in the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and Community Earth System Model (CESM). Reservoirs play an important role in modulating the dynamic water, energy and biogeochemical cycles in the riverine system through nutrient sequestration and stratification. However, most earth system models include lake models that assume a simplified geometry featuring a constant depth and a constant surface area. As reservoir geometry has important effects on thermal stratification, we developed a new algorithm for deriving generic, stratified area-elevation-storage relationships that are applicable at regional and global scales using data from Global Reservoir and Dam database (GRanD). This new reservoir geometry dataset is then used to support the development of a reservoir stratification module within MOSART. The mixing of layers (energy and mass) in the reservoir is driven by eddy diffusion, vertical advection, and reservoir inflow and outflow. Upstream inflow into a reservoir is treated as an additional source/sink of energy, while downstream outflow represented a sink. Hourly atmospheric forcing from North American Land Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase II and simulated daily runoff by ACME land component are used as inputs for the model over the contiguous United States for simulations between 2001-2010. The model is validated using selected observed temperature profile data in a number of reservoirs that are subject to various levels of regulation. The reservoir stratification module completes the representation of riverine mass and heat transfer in earth system models, which is a major step towards quantitative understanding of human influences on the terrestrial hydrological, ecological and biogeochemical cycles.

  19. Spatiotemporal Modeling of Community Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Ertugay, and Sebnem Duzgun, “Exploratory and Inferential Methods for Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Residential Fire Clustering in Urban Areas,” Fire ...response in communities.”26 In “Exploratory and Inferential Methods for Spatio-temporal Analysis of Residential Fire Clustering in Urban Areas,” Ceyhan...of fire resources spread across the community. Spatiotemporal modeling shows that actualized risk is dynamic and relatively patterned. Though

  20. Empirically derived neighbourhood rules for urban land-use modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henning Sten

    2012-01-01

    Land-use modelling and spatial scenarios have gained attention as a means to meet the challenge of reducing uncertainty in spatial planning and decision making. Many of the recent modelling efforts incorporate cellular automata to accomplish spatially explicit land-use-change modelling. Spatial...

  1. Developing land market data for use in a state wide land use and transportation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-10-01

    This working paper describes the process used to develop land market variables : for use by TRANUS in the Transportation and Land Use Model Integration : Program (TLUMIP). One of the key variables developed during this phase of the : project is the m...

  2. Integrated modelling of anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change on the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaldach, R.; Koch, J.; Alcamo, J.

    2009-04-01

    In many cases land-use activities go hand in hand with substantial modifications of the physical and biological cover of the Earth's surface, resulting in direct effects on energy and matter fluxes between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere. For instance, the conversion of forest to cropland is changing climate relevant surface parameters (e.g. albedo) as well as evapotranspiration processes and carbon flows. In turn, human land-use decisions are also influenced by environmental processes. Changing temperature and precipitation patterns for example are important determinants for location and intensity of agriculture. Due to these close linkages, processes of land-use and related land-cover change should be considered as important components in the construction of Earth System models. A major challenge in modelling land-use change on the global scale is the integration of socio-economic aspects and human decision making with environmental processes. One of the few global approaches that integrates functional components to represent both anthropogenic and environmental aspects of land-use change, is the LandSHIFT model. It simulates the spatial and temporal dynamics of the human land-use activities settlement, cultivation of food crops and grazing management, which compete for the available land resources. The rational of the model is to regionalize the demands for area intensive commodities (e.g. crop production) and services (e.g. space for housing) from the country-level to a global grid with the spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. The modelled land-use decisions within the agricultural sector are influenced by changing climate and the resulting effects on biomass productivity. Currently, this causal chain is modelled by integrating results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL model for changing crop yields and net primary productivity of grazing land. Model output of LandSHIFT is a time series of grid maps with land-use/land-cover information

  3. The transparency, reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land-use and land-cover change models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosa, Isabel M D; Ahmed, Sadia E; Ewers, Robert M

    2014-06-01

    Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South-East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio-temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land-use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the

  4. Physically plausible prescription of land surface model soil moisture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hauser, Mathias; Orth, René; Thiery, Wim; Seneviratne, Sonia

    2016-04-01

    Land surface hydrology is an important control of surface weather and climate, especially under extreme dry or wet conditions where it can amplify heat waves or floods, respectively. Prescribing soil moisture in land surface models is a valuable technique to investigate this link between hydrology and climate. It has been used for example to assess the influence of soil moisture on temperature variability, mean and extremes (Seneviratne et al. 2006, 2013, Lorenz et al., 2015). However, perturbing the soil moisture content artificially can lead to a violation of the energy and water balances. Here we present a new method for prescribing soil moisture which ensures water and energy balance closure by using only water from runoff and a reservoir term. If water is available, the method prevents soil moisture decrease below climatological values. Results from simulations with the Community Land Model (CLM) indicate that our new method allows to avoid soil moisture deficits in many regions of the world. We show the influence of the irrigation-supported soil moisture content on mean and extreme temperatures and contrast our findings with that of earlier studies. Additionally, we will assess how long into the 21st century the new method will be able to maintain present-day climatological soil moisture levels for different regions. Lorenz, R., Argüeso, D., Donat, M.G., Pitman, A.J., den Hurk, B.V., Berg, A., Lawrence, D.M., Chéruy, F., Ducharne, A., Hagemann, S. and Meier, A., 2015. Influence of land-atmosphere feedbacks on temperature and precipitation extremes in the GLACE-CMIP5 ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. Seneviratne, S.I., Lüthi, D., Litschi, M. and Schär, C., 2006. Land-atmosphere coupling and climate change in Europe. Nature, 443(7108), pp.205-209. Seneviratne, S.I., Wilhelm, M., Stanelle, T., Hurk, B., Hagemann, S., Berg, A., Cheruy, F., Higgins, M.E., Meier, A., Brovkin, V. and Claussen, M., 2013. Impact of soil moisture

  5. Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, Joseph A.; Kumar, Sujay; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Zhou, Shuija

    2012-01-01

    Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

  6. Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, J. A.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Harrison, K. W.; Zhou, S.

    2012-12-01

    Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

  7. Using Community Land Rights to Build Local Govern- ance and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Corey Piccioni

    ments in women's land rights and their participation in local decision-making processes. In parallel, the teams are conducting country-specific studies in ... methods is being used, such as baseline & post- service surveys and focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and direct observation. • In Uganda, LEMU has ...

  8. MODELING OF FUTURE LAND COVER LAND USE CHANGE IN NORTH CAROLINA USING MARKOV CHAIN AND CELLULAR AUTOMATA MODEL

    OpenAIRE

    Mohammad Sayemuzzaman; Manoj K. Jha

    2014-01-01

    State wide variant topographic features in North Carolina attract the hydro-climatologist. There is none modeling study found that predict future Land Cover Land Use (LCLU) change for whole North Carolina. In this study, satellite-derived land cover maps of year 1992, 2001 and 2006 of North Carolina were integrated within the framework of the Markov-Cellular Automata (Markov-CA) model which combines the Markov chain and Cellular Automata (CA) techniques. A Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) was ...

  9. Agricultural Land Use Determines the Trait Composition of Ground Beetle Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanson, Helena I; Palmu, Erkki; Birkhofer, Klaus; Smith, Henrik G; Hedlund, Katarina

    2016-01-01

    In order to improve biological control of agricultural pests, it is fundamental to understand which factors influence the composition of natural enemies in agricultural landscapes. In this study, we aimed to understand how agricultural land use affects a number of different traits in ground beetle communities to better predict potential consequences of land-use change for ecosystem functioning. We studied ground beetles in fields with different agricultural land use ranging from frequently managed sugar beet fields, winter wheat fields to less intensively managed grasslands. The ground beetles were collected in emergence tents that catch individuals overwintering locally in different life stages and with pitfall traps that catch individuals that could have a local origin or may have dispersed into the field. Community weighted mean values for ground beetle traits such as body size, flight ability and feeding preference were estimated for each land-use type and sampling method. In fields with high land-use intensity the average body length of emerging ground beetle communities was lower than in the grasslands while the average body length of actively moving communities did not differ between the land-use types. The proportion of ground beetles with good flight ability or a carnivorous diet was higher in the crop fields as compared to the grasslands. Our study highlights that increasing management intensity reduces the average body size of emerging ground beetles and the proportion of mixed feeders. Our results also suggest that the dispersal ability of ground beetles enables them to compensate for local management intensities.

  10. Coupling integrated assessment and earth system models: concepts and an application to land use change

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; Lawrence, P.; Ren, X.

    2016-12-01

    Collaboration between the integrated assessment modeling (IAM) and earth system modeling (ESM) communities is increasing, driven by a growing interest in research questions that require analysis integrating both social and natural science components. This collaboration often takes the form of integrating their respective models. There are a number of approaches available to implement this integration, ranging from one-way linkages to full two-way coupling, as well as approaches that retain a single modeling framework but improve the representation of processes from the other framework. We discuss the pros and cons of these different approaches and the conditions under which a two-way coupling of IAMs and ESMs would be favored over a one-way linkage. We propose a criterion that is necessary and sufficient to motivate two-way coupling: A human process must have an effect on an earth system process that is large enough to cause a change in the original human process that is substantial compared to other uncertainties in the problem being investigated. We then illustrate a test of this criterion for land use-climate interactions based on work using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and land use scenarios from the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), in which we find that the land use effect on regional climate is unlikely to meet the criterion. We then show an example of implementing a one-way linkage of land use and agriculture between an IAM, the integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) model, and CESM that produces fully consistent outcomes between iPETS and the CESM land surface model. We use the linked system to model the influence of climate change on crop yields, agricultural land use, crop prices and food consumption under two alternative future climate scenarios. This application demonstrates the ability to link an IAM to a global land surface and climate model in a computationally efficient manner.

  11. The Community-First Land-Centred Theoretical Framework: Bringing a "Good Mind" to Indigenous Education Research?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Styres, Sandra D.; Zinga, Dawn M.

    2013-01-01

    This article introduces an emergent research theoretical framework, the community-first Land-centred research framework. Carefully examining the literature within Indigenous educational research, we noted the limited approaches for engaging in culturally aligned and relevant research within Indigenous communities. The community-first Land-centred…

  12. [Interrelations between plant communities and environmental factors of wetlands and surrounding lands in mid- and lower reaches of Tarim River].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Ruifeng; Zhou, Huarong; Qian, Yibing; Zhang, Jianjun

    2006-06-01

    A total of 16 quadrants of wetlands and surrounding lands in the mid- and lower reaches of Tarim River were surveyed, and the data about the characteristics of plant communities and environmental factors were collected and counted. By using PCA (principal component analysis) ordination and regression procedure, the distribution patterns of plant communities and the relationships between the characteristics of plant community structure and environmental factors were analyzed. The results showed that the distribution of the plant communities was closely related to soil moisture, salt, and nutrient contents. The accumulative contribution rate of soil moisture and salt contents in the first principal component accounted for 35.70%, and that of soil nutrient content in the second principal component reached 25.97%. There were 4 types of habitats for the plant community distribution, i. e., fenny--light salt--medium nutrient, moist--medium salt--medium nutrient, mesophytic--medium salt--low nutrient, and medium xerophytic-heavy salt--low nutrient. Along these habitats, swamp vegetation, meadow vegetation, riparian sparse forest, halophytic desert, and salinized shrub were distributed. In the wetlands and surrounding lands of mid- and lower reaches of Tarim River, the ecological dominance of the plant communities was markedly and unitary-linearly correlated with the compound gradient of soil moisture and salt contents. The relationships between species diversity, ecological dominance, and compound gradient of soil moisture and salt contents were significantly accorded to binary-linear regression model.

  13. Climate change and land use. Towards the Nexus Land Use model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazas, C.

    2007-01-01

    The objective of this study is to examine the impacts of arbitrations on land use (choice between urban development, agriculture, infrastructures, forests, free spaces, and so on, which are concurrent and exclusive) on greenhouse gas emissions. The first part highlights the complexity of this issue as land use can both generate important greenhouse gas emissions (through deforestation, methane emission by cattle, nitrogenous fertilizers) and absorb large quantities of CO 2 . The second part analyses and discusses the extent and the reasons of deforestation, commenting the situation in developed countries and in the case of the tropical forest. The third part describes the competition between land uses, reviews existing economical models, and presents the Nexus Land Use model which could be able to integrate agricultural and forestry challenges at the planet scale

  14. Modelling land change: the issue of use and cover in wide-scale applications

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.M.; Veldkamp, A.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the underlying causes for the apparent mismatch between land cover and land use in the context of wide-scale land change modelling are explored. A land use-land cover (LU/LC) ratio is proposed as a relevant landscape characteristic. The one-to-one ratio between land use and land

  15. Implementing land use change models in the developing world

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Le Roux, Alize

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available recently adapted land use change models (Dyna-Clue and UrbanSIM) that have been successfully adapted to simulate future land use change policies in the various metro's across South-Africa. The presentation will focus on how these technologies together...

  16. Modeling land development along highway 4 in Southern Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Potjamas Chuangchang

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to investigate the change of developed land in three different locations along Highway 4 Road from Phattalung to HatYai. The method involves creating a digitized grid of geographical coordinates covering the study area. The land-use codes and plot identifiers were recorded in database tables indexed by grid coordinates. Logistic regression of land development adjusted for spatial correlation was used to model its change over a 9-year period using land-use at the previous survey combined with location as a determinant. The results show increasing average percentages of developed land (3% in 2000 and 5% in 2009. Land development occurred mostly in the northern location along the Pattalung to HatYai road.

  17. Terrestrial Species in Protected Areas and Community-Managed Lands in Arunachal Pradesh, Northeast India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nandini Velho

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Protected areas (including areas that are nominally fully protected and those managed for multiple uses encompass about a quarter of the total tropical forest estate. Despite growing interest in the relative value of community-managed lands and protected areas, knowledge about the biodiversity value that each sustains remains scarce in the biodiversity-rich tropics. We investigated the species occurrence of a suite of mammal and pheasant species across four protected areas and nearby community-managed lands in a biodiversity hotspot in northeast India. Over 2.5 years we walked 98 transects (half of which were resampled on a second occasion across the four paired sites. In addition, we interviewed 84 key informants to understand their perceptions of species trends in these two management regimes. We found that protected areas had higher overall species richness and were important for species that were apparently declining in occurrence. On a site-specific basis, community-managed lands had species richness and occurrences comparable to those of a protected area, and in one case their relative abundances of mammals were higher. Interviewees indicated declines in the abundances of larger-bodied species in community-managed lands. Their observations agreed with our field surveys for certain key, large-bodied species, such as gaur and sambar, which generally occurred less in community-managed lands. Hence, the degree to which protected areas and community-managed lands protect wildlife species depends upon the species in question, with larger-bodied species usually faring better within protected areas.

  18. Geographical information modelling for land resource survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruin, de S.

    2000-01-01

    The increasing popularity of geographical information systems (GIS) has at least three major implications for land resources survey. Firstly, GIS allows alternative and richer representation of spatial phenomena than is possible with the traditional paper map. Secondly, digital technology has

  19. An Uncertain Programming Model for Land Use Structure Optimization to Promote Effectiveness of Land Use Planning

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LI Xin; MA Xiaodong

    2017-01-01

    Land use structure optimization (LUSO) is an important issue for land use planning.In order for land use planning to have reasonable flexibility,uncertain optimization should be applied for LUSO.In this paper,the researcher first expounded the uncertainties of LUSO.Based on this,an interval programming model was developed,of which interval variables were to hold land use uncertainties.To solve the model,a heuristics based on Genetic Algorithm was designed according to Pareto Optimum principle with a confidence interval under given significance level to represent LUSO result.Proposed method was applied to a real case of Yangzhou,an eastern city in China.The following conclusions were reached.1) Different forms of uncertainties ranged from certainty to indeterminacy lay in the five steps of LUSO,indicating necessary need of comprehensive approach to quantify them.2) With regards to trade-offs of conflicted objectives and preferences to uncertainties,our proposed model displayed good ability of making planning decision process transparent,therefore providing an effective tool for flexible land use planning compiling.3) Under uncertain conditions,land use planning effectiveness can be primarily enhanced by flexible management with reserved space to percept and hold uncertainties in advance.

  20. Simulating Land-Use Change using an Agent-Based Land Transaction Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakker, M. M.; van Dijk, J.; Alam, S. J.

    2013-12-01

    In the densely populated cultural landscapes of Europe, the vast majority of all land is owned by private parties, be it farmers (the majority), nature organizations, property developers, or citizens. Therewith, the vast majority of all land-use change arises from land transactions between different owner types: successful farms expand at the expense of less successful farms, and meanwhile property developers, individual citizens, and nature organizations also actively purchase land. These land transactions are driven by specific properties of the land, by governmental policies, and by the (economic) motives of both buyers and sellers. Climate/global change can affect these drivers at various scales: at the local scale changes in hydrology can make certain land less or more desirable; at the global scale the agricultural markets will affect motives of farmers to buy or sell land; while at intermediate (e.g. provincial) scales property developers and nature conservationists may be encouraged or discouraged to purchase land. The cumulative result of all these transactions becomes manifest in changing land-use patterns, and consequent environmental responses. Within the project Climate Adaptation for Rural Areas an agent-based land-use model was developed that explores the future response of individual land users to climate change, within the context of wider global change (i.e. policy and market change). It simulates the exchange of land among farmers and between farmers and nature organizations and property developers, for a specific case study area in the east of the Netherlands. Results show that local impacts of climate change can result in a relative stagnation in the land market in waterlogged areas. Furthermore, the increase in dairying at the expense of arable cultivation - as has been observed in the area in the past - is slowing down as arable produce shows a favourable trend in the agricultural world market. Furthermore, budgets for nature managers are

  1. Comparison of Predictive Modeling Methods of Aircraft Landing Speed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diallo, Ousmane H.

    2012-01-01

    Expected increases in air traffic demand have stimulated the development of air traffic control tools intended to assist the air traffic controller in accurately and precisely spacing aircraft landing at congested airports. Such tools will require an accurate landing-speed prediction to increase throughput while decreasing necessary controller interventions for avoiding separation violations. There are many practical challenges to developing an accurate landing-speed model that has acceptable prediction errors. This paper discusses the development of a near-term implementation, using readily available information, to estimate/model final approach speed from the top of the descent phase of flight to the landing runway. As a first approach, all variables found to contribute directly to the landing-speed prediction model are used to build a multi-regression technique of the response surface equation (RSE). Data obtained from operations of a major airlines for a passenger transport aircraft type to the Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport are used to predict the landing speed. The approach was promising because it decreased the standard deviation of the landing-speed error prediction by at least 18% from the standard deviation of the baseline error, depending on the gust condition at the airport. However, when the number of variables is reduced to the most likely obtainable at other major airports, the RSE model shows little improvement over the existing methods. Consequently, a neural network that relies on a nonlinear regression technique is utilized as an alternative modeling approach. For the reduced number of variables cases, the standard deviation of the neural network models errors represent over 5% reduction compared to the RSE model errors, and at least 10% reduction over the baseline predicted landing-speed error standard deviation. Overall, the constructed models predict the landing-speed more accurately and precisely than the current state-of-the-art.

  2. Land

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C.A. Hunsberger (Carol); Tom P. Evans

    2012-01-01

    textabstractPressure on land resources has increased during recent years despite international goals to improve their management. The fourth Global Environment Outlook (UNEP 2007) highlighted the unprecedented land-use changes created by a burgeoning population, economic development and

  3. Modeling Forest Succession among Ecological Land Units in Northern Minnesota

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George Host

    1998-12-01

    Full Text Available Field and modeling studies were used to quantify potential successional pathways among fine-scale ecological classification units within two geomorphic regions of north-central Minnesota. Soil and overstory data were collected on plots stratified across low-relief ground moraines and undulating sand dunes. Each geomorphic feature was sampled across gradients of topography or soil texture. Overstory conditions were sampled using five variable-radius point samples per plot; soil samples were analyzed for carbon and nitrogen content. Climatic, forest composition, and soil data were used to parameterize the sample plots for use with LINKAGES, a forest growth model that simulates changes in composition and soil characteristics over time. Forest composition and soil properties varied within and among geomorphic features. LINKAGES simulations were using "bare ground" and the current overstory as starting conditions. Northern hardwoods or pines dominated the late-successional communities of morainal and dune landforms, respectively. The morainal landforms were dominated by yellow birch and sugar maple; yellow birch reached its maximum abundance in intermediate landscape positions. On the dune sites, pine was most abundant in drier landscape positions, with white spruce increasing in abundance with increasing soil moisture and N content. The differences in measured soil properties and predicted late-successional composition indicate that ecological land units incorporate some of the key variables that govern forest composition and structure. They further show the value of ecological classification and modeling for developing forest management strategies that incorporate the spatial and temporal dynamics of forest ecosystems.

  4. Effects of land use on arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities in Estonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sepp, Siim-Kaarel; Jairus, Teele; Vasar, Martti; Zobel, Martin; Öpik, Maarja

    2018-04-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungal communities vary across habitat types, as well as across different land use types. Most relevant research, however, has focused on agricultural or other severely human-impacted ecosystems. Here, we compared AM fungal communities across six habitat types: calcareous grassland, overgrown ungrazed calcareous grassland, wooded meadow, farmyard lawn, boreonemoral forest, and boreonemoral forest clear-cut, exhibiting contrasting modes of land use. AM fungi in the roots of a single host plant species, Prunella vulgaris, and in its rhizosphere soil were identified using 454-sequencing from a total of 103 samples from 12 sites in Estonia. Mean AM fungal taxon richness per sample did not differ among habitats. AM fungal community composition, however, was significantly different among habitat types. Both abandonment and land use intensification (clearcutting; trampling combined with frequent mowing) changed AM fungal community composition. The AM fungal communities in different habitat types were most similar in the roots of the single host plant species and most distinct in soil samples, suggesting a non-random pattern in host-fungal taxon interactions. The results show that AM fungal taxon composition is driven by habitat type and land use intensity, while the plant host may act as an additional filter between the available and realized AM fungal species pool.

  5. Modeling pollinator community response to contrasting bioenergy scenarios.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ashley B Bennett

    Full Text Available In the United States, policy initiatives aimed at increasing sources of renewable energy are advancing bioenergy production, especially in the Midwest region, where agricultural landscapes dominate. While policy directives are focused on renewable fuel production, biodiversity and ecosystem services will be impacted by the land-use changes required to meet production targets. Using data from field observations, we developed empirical models for predicting abundance, diversity, and community composition of flower-visiting bees based on land cover. We used these models to explore how bees might respond under two contrasting bioenergy scenarios: annual bioenergy crop production and perennial grassland bioenergy production. In the two scenarios, 600,000 ha of marginal annual crop land or marginal grassland were converted to perennial grassland or annual row crop bioenergy production, respectively. Model projections indicate that expansion of annual bioenergy crop production at this scale will reduce bee abundance by 0 to 71%, and bee diversity by 0 to 28%, depending on location. In contrast, converting annual crops on marginal soil to perennial grasslands could increase bee abundance from 0 to 600% and increase bee diversity between 0 and 53%. Our analysis of bee community composition suggested a similar pattern, with bee communities becoming less diverse under annual bioenergy crop production, whereas bee composition transitioned towards a more diverse community dominated by wild bees under perennial bioenergy crop production. Models, like those employed here, suggest that bioenergy policies have important consequences for pollinator conservation.

  6. High-resolution Continental Scale Land Surface Model incorporating Land-water Management in United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, S.; Pokhrel, Y. N.

    2016-12-01

    Land surface models have been used to assess water resources sustainability under changing Earth environment and increasing human water needs. Overwhelming observational records indicate that human activities have ubiquitous and pertinent effects on the hydrologic cycle; however, they have been crudely represented in large scale land surface models. In this study, we enhance an integrated continental-scale land hydrology model named Leaf-Hydro-Flood to better represent land-water management. The model is implemented at high resolution (5km grids) over the continental US. Surface water and groundwater are withdrawn based on actual practices. Newly added irrigation, water diversion, and dam operation schemes allow better simulations of stream flows, evapotranspiration, and infiltration. Results of various hydrologic fluxes and stores from two sets of simulation (one with and the other without human activities) are compared over a range of river basin and aquifer scales. The improved simulations of land hydrology have potential to build consistent modeling framework for human-water-climate interactions.

  7. Modeled impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Findell, K.L.; Shevliakova, E.; Milly, P.C.D.; Stouffer, R.J.

    2007-01-01

    Equilibrium experiments with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's climate model are used to investigate the impact of anthropogenic land cover change on climate. Regions of altered land cover include large portions of Europe, India, eastern China, and the eastern United States. Smaller areas of change are present in various tropical regions. This study focuses on the impacts of biophysical changes associated with the land cover change (albedo, root and stomatal properties, roughness length), which is almost exclusively a conversion from forest to grassland in the model; the effects of irrigation or other water management practices and the effects of atmospheric carbon dioxide changes associated with land cover conversion are not included in these experiments. The model suggests that observed land cover changes have little or no impact on globally averaged climatic variables (e.g., 2-m air temperature is 0.008 K warmer in a simulation with 1990 land cover compared to a simulation with potential natural vegetation cover). Differences in the annual mean climatic fields analyzed did not exhibit global field significance. Within some of the regions of land cover change, however, there are relatively large changes of many surface climatic variables. These changes are highly significant locally in the annual mean and in most months of the year in eastern Europe and northern India. They can be explained mainly as direct and indirect consequences of model-prescribed increases in surface albedo, decreases in rooting depth, and changes of stomatal control that accompany deforestation. ?? 2007 American Meteorological Society.

  8. Common–interest community agreements on private lands provide opportunity and scale for wildlife management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Powell, L. A.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Private lands are critical to conservation planning for wildlife, worldwide. Agriculture subsidies, tax incentives, and conservation easements have been successfully used as tools to convert cropland to native vegetation. However, uncertain economies threaten the sustainability of these incentives. The wildlife management profession is in need of innovative models that support effective management of populations. I argue that biologists should consider the option of facilitating the development of private reserves to reduce the dependence of conservation on public investment. Private reserves can be enhanced by creating common–interest communities, which reduce the problem posed by limited size of individual properties. Cross–property agreements between landowners can provide economic incentives through forms of ecotourism, energy production, and/or enhanced agricultural production. I share two case studies that demonstrate how cross–property agreements may be beneficial to landowner’s finances and conservation of diverse wildlife communities, as well as providing an efficient structure for NGOs and management agencies to engage and support landowners.

  9. Possibilities of Land Administration Domain Model (ladm) Implementation in Nigeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babalola, S. O.; Rahman, A. Abdul; Choon, L. T.; Van Oosterom, P. J. M.

    2015-10-01

    LADM covers essential information associated components of land administration and management including those over water and elements above and below the surface of the earth. LADM standard provides an abstract conceptual model with three packages and one sub-package. LADM defined terminology for a land administration system that allows a shared explanation of different formal customary or informal tenures. The standard provides the basis for national and regional profiles and enables the combination of land management information from different sources in a coherent manner. Given this, this paper started with the description of land and land administration in Nigeria. The pre-colonial, colonial and post-colonial era with organization structure was discussed. This discussion is important to present an understanding of the background of any improvement needed for the LADM implementation in Nigeria. The LADM, ISO 19152 and the packages of LADM was discussed, and the comparison of the different aspects of each package and classes were made with Nigerian land administration and the cadastral system. In the comparison made, it was discovered that the concept is similar to LADM packages in Nigerian land administration. Although, the terminology may not be the same in all cases. Having studied conceptualization and the application of LADM, as a model that has essential information associated with components of the land administration. Including those on the land, over water as well as elements above and below the surface of the earth and discovered that the standard is suitable for the country. The model can, therefore, be adopted into Nigerian land administration system by mapping in some of the concepts of LADM.

  10. An evolving network model with community structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Chunguang; Maini, Philip K

    2005-01-01

    Many social and biological networks consist of communities-groups of nodes within which connections are dense, but between which connections are sparser. Recently, there has been considerable interest in designing algorithms for detecting community structures in real-world complex networks. In this paper, we propose an evolving network model which exhibits community structure. The network model is based on the inner-community preferential attachment and inter-community preferential attachment mechanisms. The degree distributions of this network model are analysed based on a mean-field method. Theoretical results and numerical simulations indicate that this network model has community structure and scale-free properties

  11. The influence of land use on water quality and diatom community ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Epilithic diatom communities offer a holistic and integrated approach for assessing water quality as they remain in one place for a number of months and reflect an ecological memory of water quality over a period of time. The objective of this study is to use diatom assemblages to distinguish between particular land types ...

  12. Heat waves measured with MODIS land surface temperature data predict changes in avian community structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas P. Albright; Anna M. Pidgeon; Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; Murray K. Clayton; Curtis H. Flather; Patrick D. Culbert; Volker C. Radeloff

    2011-01-01

    Heat waves are expected to become more frequent and severe as climate changes, with unknown consequences for biodiversity. We sought to identify ecologically-relevant broad-scale indicators of heat waves based on MODIS land surface temperature (LST) and interpolated air temperature data and assess their associations with avian community structure. Specifically, we...

  13. Influence of land-use patterns on benthic diatom communities and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The objective of this study was to determine the effects of land-use patterns on both diatom community composition and water quality in tropical streams during the dry season. Benthic diatom collections and water quality sampling were done 4 times at 10 sites. A suite of environmental variables that varied with human ...

  14. Extending connections between land and people digitally: designing with rural Herero communities in Namibia

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bidwell, NJ

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available -1 Heritage and Social Media: Understanding Heritage in Participatory Culture June 2012/Chapter 11 Extending connections between land and people digitally: designing with rural Herero communities in Namibia Bidwell NJ1 and Winschiers-Theophilus H2 1...

  15. Data model for the collaboration between land administration systems and agricultural land parcel identification systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inan, Halil Ibrahim; Sagris, Valentina; Devos, Wim; Milenov, Pavel; van Oosterom, Peter; Zevenbergen, Jaap

    2010-12-01

    The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union (EU) has dramatically changed after 1992, and from then on the CAP focused on the management of direct income subsidies instead of production-based subsidies. For this focus, Member States (MS) are expected to establish Integrated Administration and Control System (IACS), including a Land Parcel Identification System (LPIS) as the spatial part of IACS. Different MS have chosen different solutions for their LPIS. Currently, some MS based their IACS/LPIS on data from their Land Administration Systems (LAS), and many others use purpose built special systems for their IACS/LPIS. The issue with these different IACS/LPIS is that they do not have standardized structures; rather, each represents a unique design in each MS, both in the case of LAS based or special systems. In this study, we aim at designing a core data model for those IACS/LPIS based on LAS. For this purpose, we make use of the ongoing standardization initiatives for LAS (Land Administration Domain Model: LADM) and IACS/LPIS (LPIS Core Model: LCM). The data model we propose in this study implies the collaboration between LADM and LCM and includes some extensions. Some basic issues with the collaboration model are discussed within this study: registration of farmers, land use rights and farming limitations, geometry/topology, temporal data management etc. For further explanation of the model structure, sample instance level diagrams illustrating some typical situations are also included. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Intensive land use drives small-scale homogenization of plant- and leafhopper communities and promotes generalists.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chisté, Melanie N; Mody, Karsten; Kunz, Gernot; Gunczy, Johanna; Blüthgen, Nico

    2018-02-01

    The current biodiversity decline through anthropogenic land-use not only involves local species losses, but also homogenization of communities, with a few generalist species benefitting most from human activities. Most studies assessed community heterogeneity (β-diversity) on larger scales by comparing different sites, but little is known about impacts on β-diversity within each site, which is relevant for understanding variation in the level of α-diversity, the small-scale distribution of species and associated habitat heterogeneity. To obtain our dataset with 36,899 individuals out of 117 different plant- and leafhopper (Auchenorrhyncha) species, we sampled communities of 140 managed grassland sites across Germany by quantitative vacuum suction of five 1 m 2 plots on each site. Sites differed in land-use intensity as characterized by intensity of fertilization, mowing and grazing. Our results demonstrate a significant within-site homogenization of plant- and leafhopper communities with increasing land-use intensity. Correspondingly, density (- 78%) and γ-diversity (- 35%) declined, particularly with fertilization and mowing intensity. More than 34% of plant- and leafhopper species were significant losers and only 6% were winners of high land-use intensity, with abundant and widespread species being less affected. Increasing land-use intensity adversely affected dietary specialists and promoted generalist species. Our study emphasizes considerable, multifaceted effects of land-use intensification on species loss, with a few dominant generalists winning, and an emerging trend towards more homogenized assemblages. By demonstrating homogenization for the first time within sites, our study highlights that anthropogenic influences on biodiversity even occur on small scales.

  17. Agricultural Land Use Determines the Trait Composition of Ground Beetle Communities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helena I Hanson

    Full Text Available In order to improve biological control of agricultural pests, it is fundamental to understand which factors influence the composition of natural enemies in agricultural landscapes. In this study, we aimed to understand how agricultural land use affects a number of different traits in ground beetle communities to better predict potential consequences of land-use change for ecosystem functioning. We studied ground beetles in fields with different agricultural land use ranging from frequently managed sugar beet fields, winter wheat fields to less intensively managed grasslands. The ground beetles were collected in emergence tents that catch individuals overwintering locally in different life stages and with pitfall traps that catch individuals that could have a local origin or may have dispersed into the field. Community weighted mean values for ground beetle traits such as body size, flight ability and feeding preference were estimated for each land-use type and sampling method. In fields with high land-use intensity the average body length of emerging ground beetle communities was lower than in the grasslands while the average body length of actively moving communities did not differ between the land-use types. The proportion of ground beetles with good flight ability or a carnivorous diet was higher in the crop fields as compared to the grasslands. Our study highlights that increasing management intensity reduces the average body size of emerging ground beetles and the proportion of mixed feeders. Our results also suggest that the dispersal ability of ground beetles enables them to compensate for local management intensities.

  18. Co-evolution of transportation and land use : modeling historical dependencies in land use and transportation decision making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-11-01

    The interaction between land use and transportation has long been the central issue in urban and regional planning. Models of such : interactions provide vital information to support many public policy decisions, such as land supply, infrastructure p...

  19. Polarimetric SAR interferometry applied to land ice: modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dall, Jørgen; Papathanassiou, Konstantinos; Skriver, Henning

    2004-01-01

    This paper introduces a few simple scattering models intended for the application of polarimetric SAR interfer-ometry to land ice. The principal aim is to eliminate the penetration bias hampering ice sheet elevation maps generated with single-channel SAR interferometry. The polarimetric coherent...... scattering models are similar to the oriented-volume model and the random-volume-over-ground model used in vegetation studies, but the ice models are adapted to the different geometry of land ice. Also, due to compaction, land ice is not uniform; a fact that must be taken into account for large penetration...... depths. The validity of the scattering models is examined using L-band polarimetric interferometric SAR data acquired with the EMISAR system over an ice cap located in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Radar reflectors were deployed on the ice surface prior to the data acquisition in order...

  20. Land use allocation model considering climate change impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Yoon, E. J.; Song, Y. I.

    2017-12-01

    In Korea, climate change adaptation plans are being developed for each administrative district based on impact assessments constructed in various fields. This climate change impact assessments are superimposed on the actual space, which causes problems in land use allocation because the spatial distribution of individual impacts may be different each other. This implies that trade-offs between climate change impacts can occur depending on the composition of land use. Moreover, the actual space is complexly intertwined with various factors such as required area, legal regulations, and socioeconomic values, so land use allocation in consideration of climate change can be very difficult problem to solve (Liu et al. 2012; Porta et al. 2013).Optimization techniques can generate a sufficiently good alternatives for land use allocation at the strategic level if only the fitness function of relationship between impact and land use composition are derived. It has also been noted that land use optimization model is more effective than the scenario-based prediction model in achieving the objectives for problem solving (Zhang et al. 2014). Therefore in this study, we developed a quantitative tool, MOGA (Multi Objective Genetic Algorithm), which can generate a comprehensive land use allocations considering various climate change impacts, and apply it to the Gangwon-do in Korea. Genetic Algorithms (GAs) are the most popular optimization technique to address multi-objective in land use allocation. Also, it allows for immediate feedback to stake holders because it can run a number of experiments with different parameter values. And it is expected that land use decision makers and planners can formulate a detailed spatial plan or perform additional analysis based on the result of optimization model. Acknowledgments: This work was supported by the Korea Ministry of Environment (MOE) as "Climate Change Correspondence Program (Project number: 2014001310006)"

  1. Effects of land use on zoonotic host communities: a global correlative analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rory Gibb, MRes

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: Environmental trade-offs associated with land use—for example, between food security and biodiversity conservation—are crucial dimensions of planetary health. Land use-driven biodiversity change might predictably affect disease risk if reservoir host species are consistently more likely to persist under human disturbance (ie, if ecological communities in modified habitats generally have a higher zoonotic potential than those in unmodified habitats. Such a phenomenon has been observed in specific disease systems, but with substantial change in global land use projected for this century, assessing its global and taxonomic generality would shed light on an important hypothesised driver of environmental synergies or trade-offs between conservation and public health. Methods: We collated data on hosts of human parasites and pathogens from the published literature, and combined these with the Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity in Changing Terrestrial Systems (PREDICTS global database of local ecological communities and associated land use data. We analysed the effects of land use on host richness and abundance across 7330 sites globally, controlling for disease-related research effort and differences in survey methods. Findings: Ecological communities in anthropogenic land uses (managed and urban ecosystems contained a consistently higher richness and abundance of host species than did communities in nearby primary (undisturbed sites. However, among mammal hosts of zoonotic pathogens, we found considerable taxonomic variation in host responses to land use, with abundances of rodents and bats generally increasing and those of primates and carnivores generally declining in modified landscapes. Interpretation: Our results suggest that future change in global land use has the potential to drive overall increasing contact between people and ecological communities with increased shared pathogen potential (ie, more potential hosts

  2. Protist community in soil: Effects of different land-use types

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Santos, Susana; Schöler, Anne; Winding, Anne

    Soil protist microorganisms represent an important part of the soil microbial community being major players in providing ecosystem services. Changes in their community structure and dynamics may influence the rate and kind of soil formation and fertility. Corroborative studies indicate that protist...... microorganisms exhibit high levels of molecular and functional diversity in soils. However, studies questioning the protist diversity in soil and their variability across different soil land-use types, have received far less attention. The purpose of our study was to obtain relative abundances of flagellate......, cilliates and amoeboid soil protists, and to relate the expected changes in community composition to space and land-use. Within the EU FP7 project EcoFINDERS, soils were collected from six long-term observatories (LTO’s) scattered around Europe, covering different climatic zones and different vegetation...

  3. A dynamic simulation model of land-use, population, and rural livelihoods in the central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

    OpenAIRE

    Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Mats; Söderberg, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years a...

  4. TERRITORIAL LAND-USE PLANNING IN THE CONTEXT OF FORMATION THE FINANCIAL STABILITY OF THE UNITED LOCAL COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tretiak A.

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Territorial planning now is one of the essential attributes of management activities developed countries. The modern system of planning land- use in Ukraine now is not formed and balanced and does not provide positive results in achieving its high economic efficiency and environmental safety. Territorial planning of land use wasn’t needed by system of state and municipal administration because there are problems in the territorial land management which are related with insufficient compliance current needs of sustainable development. If planning of development in the cities (towns is developed and makes of base planning documentation (general plans then the area of land ownership and land use outside towns isn’t covered completely creation of land documents. In Ukraine in most scientific research view separate aspects of influence territorial use of planning the spatial organization of economic activities of local communities. For the new community situation in use land and natural resources became difficult, first of all through: -underestimation of the complexity and specificity of land reform during land and economic reforms in Ukraine; - local community hasn’t full information about rights to land and other natural resources, their potential use and protection of the state; - incompetence of system solving problems of land reform in the local councils, for example : remove communities from order of land in their territories, lands of state and municipal property aren’t separated, land reform and land tenure systems, especially in agriculture are incomplete; - unsatisfactory legal and information support and protection of property rights of villagers to land and other natural resources; - ignoring the problems of putting into economic turnover of land as a capital resource and integrated approach to village territories in development the transformation of land relations, absence of a balanced state land politics of planning of land

  5. Land cover change impact on urban flood modeling (case study: Upper Citarum watershed)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siregar, R. I.

    2018-03-01

    The upper Citarum River watershed utilizes remote sensing technology in Geographic Information System to provide information on land coverage by interpretation of objects in the image. Rivers that pass through urban areas will cause flooding problems causing disadvantages, and it disrupts community activities in the urban area. Increased development in a city is related to an increase in the number of population growth that added by increasing quality and quantity of life necessities. Improved urban lifestyle changes have an impact on land cover. The impact in over time will be difficult to control. This study aims to analyze the condition of flooding in urban areas caused by upper Citarum watershed land-use change in 2001 with the land cover change in 2010. This modeling analyzes with the help of HEC-RAS to describe flooded inundation urban areas. Land cover change in upper Citarum watershed is not very significant; it based on the results of data processing of land cover has the difference of area that changed is not enormous. Land cover changes for the floods increased dramatically to a flow coefficient for 2001 is 0.65 and in 2010 at 0.69. In 2001, the inundation area about 105,468 hectares and it were about 92,289 hectares in 2010.

  6. EVALUATION OF LAND USE/LAND COVER DATASETS FOR URBAN WATERSHED MODELING

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    S.J. BURIAN; M.J. BROWN; T.N. MCPHERSON

    2001-01-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) data are a vital component for nonpoint source pollution modeling. Most watershed hydrology and pollutant loading models use, in some capacity, LULC information to generate runoff and pollutant loading estimates. Simple equation methods predict runoff and pollutant loads using runoff coefficients or pollutant export coefficients that are often correlated to LULC type. Complex models use input variables and parameters to represent watershed characteristics and pollutant buildup and washoff rates as a function of LULC type. Whether using simple or complex models an accurate LULC dataset with an appropriate spatial resolution and level of detail is paramount for reliable predictions. The study presented in this paper compared and evaluated several LULC dataset sources for application in urban environmental modeling. The commonly used USGS LULC datasets have coarser spatial resolution and lower levels of classification than other LULC datasets. In addition, the USGS datasets do not accurately represent the land use in areas that have undergone significant land use change during the past two decades. We performed a watershed modeling analysis of three urban catchments in Los Angeles, California, USA to investigate the relative difference in average annual runoff volumes and total suspended solids (TSS) loads when using the USGS LULC dataset versus using a more detailed and current LULC dataset. When the two LULC datasets were aggregated to the same land use categories, the relative differences in predicted average annual runoff volumes and TSS loads from the three catchments were 8 to 14% and 13 to 40%, respectively. The relative differences did not have a predictable relationship with catchment size

  7. Land Surface Model Biases and their Impacts on the Assimilation of Snow-related Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsenault, K. R.; Kumar, S.; Hunter, S. M.; Aman, R.; Houser, P. R.; Toll, D.; Engman, T.; Nigro, J.

    2007-12-01

    Some recent snow modeling studies have employed a wide range of assimilation methods to incorporate snow cover or other snow-related observations into different hydrological or land surface models. These methods often include taking both model and observation biases into account throughout the model integration. This study focuses more on diagnosing the model biases and presenting their subsequent impacts on assimilating snow observations and modeled snowmelt processes. In this study, the land surface model, the Community Land Model (CLM), is used within the Land Information System (LIS) modeling framework to show how such biases impact the assimilation of MODIS snow cover observations. Alternative in-situ and satellite-based observations are used to help guide the CLM LSM in better predicting snowpack conditions and more realistic timing of snowmelt for a western US mountainous region. Also, MODIS snow cover observation biases will be discussed, and validation results will be provided. The issues faced with inserting or assimilating MODIS snow cover at moderate spatial resolutions (like 1km or less) will be addressed, and the impacts on CLM will be presented.

  8. Corporate Social Responsibility Agreements Model for Community ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Corporate Social Responsibility Agreements Model for Community ... their host communities with concomitant adverse effect on mining operations. ... sustainable community development an integral part of the mining business. This paper presents the evolutionary strategic models, with differing principles and action plans, ...

  9. lands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.T. O'Geen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater pumping chronically exceeds natural recharge in many agricultural regions in California. A common method of recharging groundwater — when surface water is available — is to deliberately flood an open area, allowing water to percolate into an aquifer. However, open land suitable for this type of recharge is scarce. Flooding agricultural land during fallow or dormant periods has the potential to increase groundwater recharge substantially, but this approach has not been well studied. Using data on soils, topography and crop type, we developed a spatially explicit index of the suitability for groundwater recharge of land in all agricultural regions in California. We identified 3.6 million acres of agricultural land statewide as having Excellent or Good potential for groundwater recharge. The index provides preliminary guidance about the locations where groundwater recharge on agricultural land is likely to be feasible. A variety of institutional, infrastructure and other issues must also be addressed before this practice can be implemented widely.

  10. Succeeding criteria of community based on land transportation infrastructure for Johor innovation valley development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Redzuan, Amir A.; Aminudin, Eeydzah; Zakaria, Rozana; Ghazali, Farid Ezanee Mohamed; Baharudin, Nur Azwa Amyra; Siang, Lee Yong

    2017-10-01

    Developing countries around the world have developed innovative centre, or known as innovation hub, to meet the demand of today's changing global competitive environment. The shift of economic sector from manufacturing to services has allowed numerous regions and cities around the world to undergo major structural changes. In Malaysia, Skudai area is on its way of becoming a community-based innovation hub under the Johor State Economic Growth Strategic Plan called Johor Innovation Valley (JIV). Towards this new-city concept, land transportation infrastructure is among the most important network in being a linkage to the source of contribution in enhancing the local innovative environment. This paper highlights the requirement of land transportation infrastructure criteria that would be effective in making Skudai a community-based innovation hub. Data were collected through survey questionnaires involving stakeholders with the knowledge of land transportation infrastructure who also lives within the area. Descriptive analysis was employed with further rank breakdown using Average Index analysis. The findings distinguish the differences between each criteria of land transportation infrastructure. Change in traffic system, easier accessibility to one place to another and attraction to outside investor are among the impacts of growth of JIV. This paper concluded that selected requirement of land transportation infrastructure criteria is necessary for future contribution towards the growth of the JIV.

  11. Urban land use and land cover change analysis and modeling a case study area Malatya, Turkey

    OpenAIRE

    Baysal, Gülendam

    2013-01-01

    Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies. This research was conducted to analyze the land use and land cover changes and to model the changes for the case study area Malatya, Turkey. The first step of the study was acquisition of multi temporal data in order to detect the changes over the time. For this purpose satellite images (Landsat 1990-2000-2010) have been used. In order to acquire data from satel...

  12. Land Use Intensification Effects in Soil Arthropod Community of an Entisol in Pernambuco State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Siqueira

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The interactions between soil invertebrates and land use and management are fundamental for soil quality assessment but remain largely unaddressed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in soil arthropod community of an entisol brought about by different land use systems under semiarid climate in Pernambuco State, Brazil. The soil invertebrate community was sampled using pitfall traps from areas with eight vegetation types by the end of the austral winter. The land uses studied were native thorn forest plus seven agricultural fields planted with elephant grass, apple guava, passion fruit, carrot, maize, tomato, and green pepper. Native vegetation was considered as a reference, whereas the agricultural fields showed a range of soil use intensities. The abundance of organisms, the total and average richness, Shannon’s diversity index, and the Pielou uniformity index were determined, and all of these were affected by several crop and soil management practices such as residue cover, weed control, and pesticide application. Our study found differences in community assemblages and composition under different land use systems, but no single taxa could be used as indicator of soil use intensity.

  13. Land use intensification effects in soil arthropod community of an entisol in Pernambuco State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siqueira, G M; Silva, E F F; Paz-Ferreiro, J

    2014-01-01

    The interactions between soil invertebrates and land use and management are fundamental for soil quality assessment but remain largely unaddressed. The aim of this study was to evaluate the changes in soil arthropod community of an entisol brought about by different land use systems under semiarid climate in Pernambuco State, Brazil. The soil invertebrate community was sampled using pitfall traps from areas with eight vegetation types by the end of the austral winter. The land uses studied were native thorn forest plus seven agricultural fields planted with elephant grass, apple guava, passion fruit, carrot, maize, tomato, and green pepper. Native vegetation was considered as a reference, whereas the agricultural fields showed a range of soil use intensities. The abundance of organisms, the total and average richness, Shannon's diversity index, and the Pielou uniformity index were determined, and all of these were affected by several crop and soil management practices such as residue cover, weed control, and pesticide application. Our study found differences in community assemblages and composition under different land use systems, but no single taxa could be used as indicator of soil use intensity.

  14. Limited impacts of extensive human land use on dominance, specialization, and biotic homogenization in boreal plant communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mayor, Stephen J; Boutin, Stan; He, Fangliang; Cahill, James F

    2015-02-13

    Niche theory predicts that human disturbance should influence the assembly of communities, favouring functionally homogeneous communities dominated by few but widespread generalists. The decline and loss of specialists leaves communities with species that are functionally more similar. Evenness of species occupancy declines, such that species become either widespread of rare. These patterns have often been observed, but it is unclear if they are a general result of human disturbance or specific to communities that are rich in species, in complex, spatially heterogeneous environments where the problem has often been investigated. We therefore tested whether human disturbance impacts dominance/evenness of species occupancy in communities, specialism/generalism of species, and functional biotic homogenization in the spatially relatively homogeneous, species poor boreal forest region of Alberta, Canada. We investigated 371 boreal vascular plant communities varying 0 - 100% in proportion of human land use. Rank species occupancy curves revealed high species dominance regardless of disturbance: within any disturbance class a few species occupied nearly every site and most species were found in a low proportion of sites. However, species were more widespread and displayed more even occupancy in intermediately disturbed communities than among communities of either low or high disturbance. We defined specialists and generalists based on turnover in co-occupants and thereby assessed impacts of human disturbance on specialization of species and community homogenization. Generalists were not disproportionately found at higher disturbance sites, and did not occupy more sites. Communities with greater human disturbance were not more functionally homogeneous; they did not harbor communities with more generalists. We unexpectedly did not observe strong linkages between species specialism/generalism and disturbance, nor between community homogenization and disturbance. These

  15. Modelling animal waste pathogen transport from agricultural land to streams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pandey, Pramod K; Soupir, Michelle L; Ikenberry, Charles

    2014-01-01

    The transport of animal waste pathogens from crop land to streams can potentially elevate pathogen levels in stream water. Applying animal manure into crop land as fertilizers is a common practice in developing as well as in developed countries. Manure application into the crop land, however, can cause potential human health. To control pathogen levels in ambient water bodies such as streams, improving our understanding of pathogen transport at farm scale as well as at watershed scale is required. To understand the impacts of crop land receiving animal waste as fertilizers on stream's pathogen levels, here we investigate pathogen indicator transport at watershed scale. We exploited watershed scale hydrological model to estimate the transport of pathogens from the crop land to streams. Pathogen indicator levels (i.e., E. coli levels) in the stream water were predicted. With certain assumptions, model results are reasonable. This study can be used as guidelines for developing the models for calculating the impacts of crop land's animal manure on stream water

  16. The quest for the perfect model: Pre World War 1. Military land use modeling of the Greater Copenhagen area

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Svenningsen, Stig Roar; Brandt, Jesper; Christensen, Andreas Aagaard

    the rotational system. At first the survey campaign seems to be going very well, but relative quickly did the military run into problems. The rapid urbanization of the landscape north of Copenhagen meant, that farming did not take place and at the island of Amager southwest of Copenhagen the farmers didn’t use......Anthropogenic land use practices are the single most important factor in the changing European landscapes. Respectively much attention has been devoted within Landscape Ecology to analyze changing patterns of land use and develop research strategies to understand the processes behind these changes...... and to inform policy makers. Models are used as an important tool in this research partly due to the revolution in information technologies during the last 30 years, which has made modeling more widespread in the research community. However modeling human decision making in form of land use practices...

  17. Hydrological, ecological, land use, economic, and sociocultural evidence for resilience of traditional irrigation communities in New Mexico, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernald, A.; Guldan, S.; Boykin, K.; Cibils, A.; Gonzales, M.; Hurd, B. H.; Lopez, S.; Ochoa, C. G.; Ortiz, M.; Rivera, J.; Rodriguez, S.; Steele, C. M.

    2014-02-01

    Southwestern US irrigated landscapes are facing upheaval due to climate change-induced water scarcity and economic change-induced land use conversion. Clues to community longevity are found in the traditionally irrigated valleys of northern New Mexico. Human systems have interacted with hydrologic processes over the last 400 yr in river fed irrigated valleys to create linked systems. In this study, we asked if concurrent data from multiple disciplines show that human adapted hydrologic and socioeconomic systems have created conditions for resilience. We identify and describe several areas of resilience: hydrological, ecological, land use, economic, and sociocultural. We found that there are multiple hydrologic benefits of the water seepage from the traditional irrigation systems; it recharges groundwater that recharges rivers, supports threatened biodiversity by maintaining riparian vegetation, and ameliorates impacts of climate change by prolonging streamflow hydrographs. In terms of land use and economics, place-based adaptability manifests itself in transformations of irrigation infrastructure and specific animal and crop systems; as grazing has diminished over time on public land watersheds, it has increased on irrigated valley pastures while outside income allows irrigators to retain their land. Sociocultural evidence shows that traditional local knowledge about the hydrosocial cycle of acequia operations is a key factor in acequia resilience. When irrigators are confronted with unexpected disturbances or changing climate that affect water supply, they adapt specific practices while maintaining community cohesion. Our ongoing work will quantify the multiple disciplinary components of these systems, translate them into a common language of causal loop diagrams, and model future scenarios to identify thresholds and tipping points of sustainability. Early indications are that these systems are not immune to upheaval, but have astonishing resilience.

  18. Anthropogenic land use shapes the composition and phylogenetic structure of soil arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moora, Mari; Davison, John; Öpik, Maarja; Metsis, Madis; Saks, Ülle; Jairus, Teele; Vasar, Martti; Zobel, Martin

    2014-12-01

    Arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi play an important role in ecosystems, but little is known about how soil AM fungal community composition varies in relation to habitat type and land-use intensity. We molecularly characterized AM fungal communities in soil samples (n = 88) from structurally open (permanent grassland, intensive and sustainable agriculture) and forested habitats (primeval forest and spruce plantation). The habitats harboured significantly different AM fungal communities, and there was a broad difference in fungal community composition between forested and open habitats, the latter being characterized by higher average AM fungal richness. Within both open and forest habitats, intensive land use significantly influenced community composition. There was a broad difference in the phylogenetic structure of AM fungal communities between mechanically disturbed and nondisturbed habitats. Taxa from Glomeraceae served as indicator species for the nondisturbed habitats, while taxa from Archaeosporaceae, Claroideoglomeraceae and Diversisporaceae were indicators for the disturbed habitats. The distribution of these indicator taxa among habitat types in the MaarjAM global database of AM fungal diversity was in accordance with their local indicator status. © 2014 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Highly Heterogeneous Soil Bacterial Communities around Terra Nova Bay of Northern Victoria Land, Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lim, Hyoun Soo; Hong, Soon Gyu; Kim, Ji Hee; Lee, Joohan; Choi, Taejin; Ahn, Tae Seok; Kim, Ok-Sun

    2015-01-01

    Given the diminished role of biotic interactions in soils of continental Antarctica, abiotic factors are believed to play a dominant role in structuring of microbial communities. However, many ice-free regions remain unexplored, and it is unclear which environmental gradients are primarily responsible for the variations among bacterial communities. In this study, we investigated the soil bacterial community around Terra Nova Bay of Victoria Land by pyrosequencing and determined which environmental variables govern the bacterial community structure at the local scale. Six bacterial phyla, Actinobacteria, Proteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Chloroflexi, Cyanobacteria, and Bacteroidetes, were dominant, but their relative abundance varied greatly across locations. Bacterial community structures were affected little by spatial distance, but structured more strongly by site, which was in accordance with the soil physicochemical compositions. At both the phylum and species levels, bacterial community structure was explained primarily by pH and water content, while certain earth elements and trace metals also played important roles in shaping community variation. The higher heterogeneity of the bacterial community structure found at this site indicates how soil bacterial communities have adapted to different compositions of edaphic variables under extreme environmental conditions. Taken together, these findings greatly advance our understanding of the adaption of soil bacterial populations to this harsh environment. PMID:25799273

  20. Multi-scale, multi-model assessment of projected land allocation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vernon, C. R.; Huang, M.; Chen, M.; Calvin, K. V.; Le Page, Y.; Kraucunas, I.

    2017-12-01

    Effects of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on climate are generally classified into two scale-dependent processes: biophysical and biogeochemical. An extensive amount of research has been conducted related to the impact of each process under alternative climate change futures. However, these studies are generally focused on the impacts of a single process and fail to bridge the gap between sector-driven scale dependencies and any associated dynamics. Studies have been conducted to better understand the relationship of these processes but their respective scale has not adequately captured overall interdependencies between land surface changes and changes in other human-earth systems (e.g., energy, water, economic, etc.). There has also been considerable uncertainty surrounding land use land cover downscaling approaches due to scale dependencies. Demeter, a land use land cover downscaling and change detection model, was created to address this science gap. Demeter is an open-source model written in Python that downscales zonal land allocation projections to the gridded resolution of a user-selected spatial base layer (e.g., MODIS, NLCD, EIA CCI, etc.). Demeter was designed to be fully extensible to allow for module inheritance and replacement for custom research needs, such as flexible IO design to facilitate the coupling of Earth system models (e.g., the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME) and the Community Earth System Model (CESM)) to integrated assessment models (e.g., the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)). In this study, we first assessed the sensitivity of downscaled LULCC scenarios at multiple resolutions from Demeter to its parameters by comparing them to historical LULC change data. "Optimal" values of key parameters for each region were identified and used to downscale GCAM-based future scenarios consistent with those in the Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP). Demeter-downscaled land use scenarios were then compared to the

  1. Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Forrest [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Fung, Inez [University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California (United States); Randerson, Jim [University of California at Irvine, Irvine, California (United States); Thornton, Peter [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Foley, Jon [University of Wisconsin at Madison, Madison, Wisconsin (United States); Covey, Curtis [Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California (United States); John, Jasmin [University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, California (United States); Levis, Samuel [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Post, W Mac [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Vertenstein, Mariana [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado (United States); Stoeckli, Reto [Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado (United States); Running, Steve [University of Montana, Missoula, Montana (United States); Heinsch, Faith Ann [University of Montana, Missoula, Montana (United States); Erickson, David [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States); Drake, John [Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee 37831-6016 (United States)

    2006-09-15

    Described here is the formulation of the CASA{sup '} biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C{sup 4}MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA{sup '} is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

  2. Terrestrial biogeochemistry in the community climate system model (CCSM)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffman, Forrest; Fung, Inez; Randerson, Jim; Thornton, Peter; Foley, Jon; Covey, Curtis; John, Jasmin; Levis, Samuel; Post, W Mac; Vertenstein, Mariana; Stoeckli, Reto; Running, Steve; Heinsch, Faith Ann; Erickson, David; Drake, John

    2006-01-01

    Described here is the formulation of the CASA ' biogeochemistry model of Fung, et al., which has recently been coupled to the Community Land Model Version 3 (CLM3) and the Community Climate System Model Version 3 (CCSM3). This model is presently being used for Coupled Climate/Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C 4 MIP) Phase 1 experiments. In addition, CASA ' is one of three models - in addition to CN (Thornton, et al.) and IBIS (Thompson, et al.) - that are being run within CCSM to investigate their suitability for use in climate change predictions in a future version of CCSM. All of these biogeochemistry experiments are being performed on the Computational Climate Science End Station (Dr. Warren Washington, Principle Investigator) at the National Center for Computational Sciences at Oak Ridge National Laboratory

  3. Multiscale Modeling of Microbial Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanchard, Andrew

    Although bacteria are single-celled organisms, they exist in nature primarily in the form of complex communities, participating in a vast array of social interactions through regulatory gene networks. The social interactions between individual cells drive the emergence of community structures, resulting in an intricate relationship across multiple spatiotemporal scales. Here, I present my work towards developing and applying the tools necessary to model the complex dynamics of bacterial communities. In Chapter 2, I utilize a reaction-diffusion model to determine the population dynamics for a population with two species. One species (CDI+) utilizes contact dependent inhibition to kill the other sensitive species (CDI-). The competition can produce diverse patterns, including extinction, coexistence, and localized aggregation. The emergence, relative abundance, and characteristic features of these patterns are collectively determined by the competitive benefit of CDI and its growth disadvantage for a given rate of population diffusion. The results provide a systematic and statistical view of CDI-based bacterial population competition, expanding the spectrum of our knowledge about CDI systems and possibly facilitating new experimental tests for a deeper understanding of bacterial interactions. In the following chapter, I present a systematic computational survey on the relationship between social interaction types and population structures for two-species communities by developing and utilizing a hybrid computational framework that combines discrete element techniques with reaction-diffusion equations. The impact of deleterious and beneficial interactions on the community are quantified. Deleterious interactions generate an increased variance in relative abundance, a drastic decrease in surviving lineages, and a rough expanding front. In contrast, beneficial interactions contribute to a reduced variance in relative abundance, an enhancement in lineage number, and a

  4. Performance comparison of land change modeling techniques for land use projection of arid watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Tajbakhsh

    2018-07-01

    Full Text Available The change of land use/land cover has been known as an imperative force in environmental alteration, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. This research was mainly aimed to assess the validity of two major types of land change modeling techniques via a three dimensional approach in Birjand urban watershed located in an arid climatic region of Iran. Thus, a Markovian approach based on two suitability and transition potential mappers, i.e. fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and artificial neural network-multi layer perceptron was used to simulate land use map. Validation metrics, quantity disagreement, allocation disagreement and figure of merit in a three-dimensional space were used to perform model validation. Utilizing the fuzzy-analytic hierarchy processsimulation of total landscape in the target point 2015, quantity error, the figure of merit and allocation error were 2%, 18.5% and 8%, respectively. However, Artificial neural network-multi layer perceptron simulation led to a marginal improvement in figure of merit, i.e. 3.25%.

  5. Integrated modeling of land-use change: the role of coupling, interactions and feedbacks between the human and Earth systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monier, E.; Kicklighter, D. W.; Ejaz, Q.; Winchester, N.; Paltsev, S.; Reilly, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Land-use change integrates a large number of components of the human and Earth systems, including climate, energy, water, and land. These complex coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks take place on a variety of space and time scales, thus increasing the complexity of land-use change modeling frameworks. In this study, we aim to identify which coupling elements, interactions and feedbacks are important for modeling land-use change, both at the global and regional level. First, we review the existing land-use change modeling framework used to develop land-use change projections for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. In such framework, land-use change is simulated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and mainly influenced by economic, energy, demographic and policy drivers. IAMs focus on representing the demand for agriculture and forestry goods (crops for food and bioenergy, forest products for construction and bioenergy), the interactions with other sectors of the economy and trade between various regions of the world. Then, we investigate how important various coupling elements and feedbacks with the Earth system are for projections of land-use change at the global and regional level. We focus on the following: i) the climate impacts on land productivity and greenhouse gas emissions, which requires climate change information and coupling to a terrestrial ecosystem model/crop model; ii) the climate and economic impacts on irrigation availability, which requires coupling the LUC modeling framework to a water resources management model and disaggregating rainfed and irrigated croplands; iii) the feedback of land-use change on the global and regional climate system through land-use change emissions and changes in the surface albedo and hydrology, which requires coupling to an Earth system model. Finally, we conclude our study by highlighting the current lack of clarity in how various components of the human and Earth systems are

  6. Land-surface modelling in hydrological perspective ? a review

    OpenAIRE

    Overgaard , J.; Rosbjerg , D.; Butts , M. B.

    2006-01-01

    International audience; The purpose of this paper is to provide a review of the different types of energy-based land-surface models (LSMs) and discuss some of the new possibilities that will arise when energy-based LSMs are combined with distributed hydrological modelling. We choose to focus on energy-based approaches, because in comparison to the traditional potential evapotranspiration models, these approaches allow for a stronger link to remote sensing and atmospheric modelling. New opport...

  7. Large-scale Validation of AMIP II Land-surface Simulations: Preliminary Results for Ten Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, T J; Henderson-Sellers, A; Irannejad, P; McGuffie, K; Zhang, H

    2005-12-01

    This report summarizes initial findings of a large-scale validation of the land-surface simulations of ten atmospheric general circulation models that are entries in phase II of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP II). This validation is conducted by AMIP Diagnostic Subproject 12 on Land-surface Processes and Parameterizations, which is focusing on putative relationships between the continental climate simulations and the associated models' land-surface schemes. The selected models typify the diversity of representations of land-surface climate that are currently implemented by the global modeling community. The current dearth of global-scale terrestrial observations makes exacting validation of AMIP II continental simulations impractical. Thus, selected land-surface processes of the models are compared with several alternative validation data sets, which include merged in-situ/satellite products, climate reanalyses, and off-line simulations of land-surface schemes that are driven by observed forcings. The aggregated spatio-temporal differences between each simulated process and a chosen reference data set then are quantified by means of root-mean-square error statistics; the differences among alternative validation data sets are similarly quantified as an estimate of the current observational uncertainty in the selected land-surface process. Examples of these metrics are displayed for land-surface air temperature, precipitation, and the latent and sensible heat fluxes. It is found that the simulations of surface air temperature, when aggregated over all land and seasons, agree most closely with the chosen reference data, while the simulations of precipitation agree least. In the latter case, there also is considerable inter-model scatter in the error statistics, with the reanalyses estimates of precipitation resembling the AMIP II simulations more than to the chosen reference data. In aggregate, the simulations of land-surface latent and

  8. Assessing the effect of agricultural land abandonment on bird communities in southern-eastern Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zakkak, Sylvia; Radovic, Andreja; Nikolov, Stoyan C; Shumka, Spase; Kakalis, Lefteris; Kati, Vassiliki

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural land abandonment is recognized as a major environmental threat in Europe, being particularly pronounced in south-eastern Europe, where knowledge on its effects is limited. Taking the Balkan Peninsula as a case study, we investigated agricultural abandonment impact on passerine communities at regional level. We set up a standard methodology for site selection (70 sites) and data collection, along a well-defined forest-encroachment gradient that reflects land abandonment in four countries: Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia and Greece. Regardless the different socio-economic and political histories in the Balkans that led to diverse land abandonment patterns in space and time, rural abandonment had a consistent negative effect on bird communities, while regional-level analysis revealed patterns that were hidden at local level. The general trends were an increase of forest-dwelling bird species at the expense of farmland birds, the decline of overall bird species richness, as well as the decline of Species of European Conservation Concern (SPECs) richness and abundance. Many farmland bird species declined with land abandonment, whereas few forest species benefited from the process. In conclusion, our results support CAP towards hampering rural land abandonment and preserving semi-open rural mosaics in remote upland areas, using a suite of management measures carefully tailored to local needs. The maintenance of traditional rural landscapes should be prioritized in the Balkans, through the timely identification of HNV farmland that is most prone to abandonment. We also suggest that coordinated transnational research is needed, for a better assessment of conservation options in remote rural landscapes at European scale, including the enhancement of wild grazers' populations as an alternative in areas where traditional land management is rather unlikely to be re-established. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Multimedia Modeling System Response to Regional Land Management Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cooter, E. J.

    2015-12-01

    A multi-media system of nitrogen and co-pollutant models describing critical physical and chemical processes that cascade synergistically and competitively through the environment, the economy and society has been developed at the USEPA Office of Research and Development. It is populated with linked or fully coupled models that address nutrient research questions such as, "How might future policy, climate or land cover change in the Mississippi River Basin affect Nitrogen and Phosphorous loadings to the Gulf of Mexico" or, "What are the management implications of regional-scale land management changes for the sustainability of air, land and water quality?" This second question requires explicit consideration of economic (e.g. sector prices) and societal (e.g. land management) factors. Metrics that illustrate biosphere-atmosphere interactions such as atmospheric PM2.5 concentrations, atmospheric N loading to surface water, soil organic N and N percolation to groundwater are calculated. An example application has been completed that is driven by a coupled agricultural and energy sector model scenario. The economic scenario assumes that by 2022 there is: 1) no detectable change in weather patterns relative to 2002; 2) a concentration of stover processing facilities in the Upper Midwest; 3) increasing offshore Pacific and Atlantic marine transportation; and 4) increasing corn, soybean and wheat production that meets future demand for food, feed and energy feedstocks. This production goal is reached without adding or removing agricultural land area whose extent is defined by the National Land Cover Dataset (NLCD) 2002v2011 classes 81 and 82. This goal does require, however, crop shifts and agricultural management changes. The multi-media system response over our U.S. 12km rectangular grid resolution analysis suggests that there are regions of potential environmental and health costs, as well as large areas that could experience unanticipated environmental and health

  10. Scenario-Led Habitat Modelling of Land Use Change Impacts on Key Species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Geary

    Full Text Available Accurate predictions of the impacts of future land use change on species of conservation concern can help to inform policy-makers and improve conservation measures. If predictions are spatially explicit, predicted consequences of likely land use changes could be accessible to land managers at a scale relevant to their working landscape. We introduce a method, based on open source software, which integrates habitat suitability modelling with scenario-building, and illustrate its use by investigating the effects of alternative land use change scenarios on landscape suitability for black grouse Tetrao tetrix. Expert opinion was used to construct five near-future (twenty years scenarios for the 800 km2 study site in upland Scotland. For each scenario, the cover of different land use types was altered by 5-30% from 20 random starting locations and changes in habitat suitability assessed by projecting a MaxEnt suitability model onto each simulated landscape. A scenario converting grazed land to moorland and open forestry was the most beneficial for black grouse, and 'increased grazing' (the opposite conversion the most detrimental. Positioning of new landscape blocks was shown to be important in some situations. Increasing the area of open-canopy forestry caused a proportional decrease in suitability, but suitability gains for the 'reduced grazing' scenario were nonlinear. 'Scenario-led' landscape simulation models can be applied in assessments of the impacts of land use change both on individual species and also on diversity and community measures, or ecosystem services. A next step would be to include landscape configuration more explicitly in the simulation models, both to make them more realistic, and to examine the effects of habitat placement more thoroughly. In this example, the recommended policy would be incentives on grazing reduction to benefit black grouse.

  11. Analyzing historical land use changes using a Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model: a case study in Zhenlai County, northeastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yuanyuan; Zhang, Shuwen; Liu, Yansui; Xing, Xiaoshi; de Sherbinin, Alex

    2017-01-01

    Historical land use information is essential to understanding the impact of anthropogenic modification of land use/cover on the temporal dynamics of environmental and ecological issues. However, due to a lack of spatial explicitness, complete thematic details and the conversion types for historical land use changes, the majority of historical land use reconstructions do not sufficiently meet the requirements for an adequate model. Considering these shortcomings, we explored the possibility of constructing a spatially-explicit modeling framework (HLURM: Historical Land Use Reconstruction Model). Then a three-map comparison method was adopted to validate the projected reconstruction map. The reconstruction suggested that the HLURM model performed well in the spatial reconstruction of various land-use categories, and had a higher figure of merit (48.19%) than models used in other case studies. The largest land use/cover type in the study area was determined to be grassland, followed by arable land and wetland. Using the three-map comparison, we noticed that the major discrepancies in land use changes among the three maps were as a result of inconsistencies in the classification of land-use categories during the study period, rather than as a result of the simulation model. PMID:28134342

  12. Nutrient cycle benchmarks for earth system land model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Q.; Riley, W. J.; Tang, J.; Zhao, L.

    2017-12-01

    Projecting future biosphere-climate feedbacks using Earth system models (ESMs) relies heavily on robust modeling of land surface carbon dynamics. More importantly, soil nutrient (particularly, nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)) dynamics strongly modulate carbon dynamics, such as plant sequestration of atmospheric CO2. Prevailing ESM land models all consider nitrogen as a potentially limiting nutrient, and several consider phosphorus. However, including nutrient cycle processes in ESM land models potentially introduces large uncertainties that could be identified and addressed by improved observational constraints. We describe the development of two nutrient cycle benchmarks for ESM land models: (1) nutrient partitioning between plants and soil microbes inferred from 15N and 33P tracers studies and (2) nutrient limitation effects on carbon cycle informed by long-term fertilization experiments. We used these benchmarks to evaluate critical hypotheses regarding nutrient cycling and their representation in ESMs. We found that a mechanistic representation of plant-microbe nutrient competition based on relevant functional traits best reproduced observed plant-microbe nutrient partitioning. We also found that for multiple-nutrient models (i.e., N and P), application of Liebig's law of the minimum is often inaccurate. Rather, the Multiple Nutrient Limitation (MNL) concept better reproduces observed carbon-nutrient interactions.

  13. LPJmL4 - a dynamic global vegetation model with managed land - Part 1: Model description

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schaphoff, Sibyll; von Bloh, Werner; Rammig, Anja; Thonicke, Kirsten; Biemans, Hester; Forkel, Matthias; Gerten, Dieter; Heinke, Jens; Jägermeyr, Jonas; Knauer, Jürgen; Langerwisch, Fanny; Lucht, Wolfgang; Müller, Christoph; Rolinski, Susanne; Waha, Katharina

    2018-04-01

    This paper provides a comprehensive description of the newest version of the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model with managed Land, LPJmL4. This model simulates - internally consistently - the growth and productivity of both natural and agricultural vegetation as coherently linked through their water, carbon, and energy fluxes. These features render LPJmL4 suitable for assessing a broad range of feedbacks within and impacts upon the terrestrial biosphere as increasingly shaped by human activities such as climate change and land use change. Here we describe the core model structure, including recently developed modules now unified in LPJmL4. Thereby, we also review LPJmL model developments and evaluations in the field of permafrost, human and ecological water demand, and improved representation of crop types. We summarize and discuss LPJmL model applications dealing with the impacts of historical and future environmental change on the terrestrial biosphere at regional and global scale and provide a comprehensive overview of LPJmL publications since the first model description in 2007. To demonstrate the main features of the LPJmL4 model, we display reference simulation results for key processes such as the current global distribution of natural and managed ecosystems, their productivities, and associated water fluxes. A thorough evaluation of the model is provided in a companion paper. By making the model source code freely available at https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL" target="_blank">https://gitlab.pik-potsdam.de/lpjml/LPJmL, we hope to stimulate the application and further development of LPJmL4 across scientific communities in support of major activities such as the IPCC and SDG process.

  14. GLEAM version 3: Global Land Evaporation Datasets and Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martens, B.; Miralles, D. G.; Lievens, H.; van der Schalie, R.; de Jeu, R.; Fernandez-Prieto, D.; Verhoest, N.

    2015-12-01

    Terrestrial evaporation links energy, water and carbon cycles over land and is therefore a key variable of the climate system. However, the global-scale magnitude and variability of the flux, and the sensitivity of the underlying physical process to changes in environmental factors, are still poorly understood due to limitations in in situ measurements. As a result, several methods have risen to estimate global patterns of land evaporation from satellite observations. However, these algorithms generally differ in their approach to model evaporation, resulting in large differences in their estimates. One of these methods is GLEAM, the Global Land Evaporation: the Amsterdam Methodology. GLEAM estimates terrestrial evaporation based on daily satellite observations of meteorological variables, vegetation characteristics and soil moisture. Since the publication of the first version of the algorithm (2011), the model has been widely applied to analyse trends in the water cycle and land-atmospheric feedbacks during extreme hydrometeorological events. A third version of the GLEAM global datasets is foreseen by the end of 2015. Given the relevance of having a continuous and reliable record of global-scale evaporation estimates for climate and hydrological research, the establishment of an online data portal to host these data to the public is also foreseen. In this new release of the GLEAM datasets, different components of the model have been updated, with the most significant change being the revision of the data assimilation algorithm. In this presentation, we will highlight the most important changes of the methodology and present three new GLEAM datasets and their validation against in situ observations and an alternative dataset of terrestrial evaporation (ERA-Land). Results of the validation exercise indicate that the magnitude and the spatiotemporal variability of the modelled evaporation agree reasonably well with the estimates of ERA-Land and the in situ

  15. Land-use change and soil type are drivers of fungal and archaeal communities in the Pampa biome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lupatini, Manoeli; Jacques, Rodrigo Josemar Seminoti; Antoniolli, Zaida Inês; Suleiman, Afnan Khalil Ahmad; Fulthorpe, Roberta R; Roesch, Luiz Fernando Würdig

    2013-02-01

    The current study aimed to test the hypothesis that both land-use change and soil type are responsible for the major changes in the fungal and archaeal community structure and functioning of the soil microbial community in Brazilian Pampa biome. Soil samples were collected at sites with different land-uses (native grassland, native forest, Eucalyptus and Acacia plantation, soybean and watermelon field) and in a typical toposequence in Pampa biome formed by Paleudult, Albaqualf and alluvial soils. The structure of soil microbial community (archaeal and fungal) was evaluated by ribosomal intergenic spacer analysis and soil functional capabilities were measured by microbial biomass carbon and metabolic quotient. We detected different patterns in microbial community driven by land-use change and soil type, showing that both factors are significant drivers of fungal and archaeal community structure and biomass and microbial activity. Fungal community structure was more affected by land-use and archaeal community was more affected by soil type. Irrespective of the land-use or soil type, a large percentage of operational taxonomic unit were shared among the soils. We accepted the hypothesis that both land-use change and soil type are drivers of archaeal and fungal community structure and soil functional capabilities. Moreover, we also suggest the existence of a soil microbial core.

  16. Historical Changes of Land Tenure and Land Use Rights in a Local Community: A Case Study in Lao PDR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saykham Boutthavong

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Land-titling programs, land and forest allocation programs, and projects on state-allocated land for development and investment in Laos have been key drivers of change in land tenure. These have triggered major shifts in land use rights, from customary, to temporary, and then to permanent land use rights. This article explores how government programs to grant land use rights to individual households have affected the way people have been able to acquire and secure land tenure. For our case study, we selected the village of Napo, the target of many land tenure changes in the past four decades. We collected data from district offices, group discussions with village organizations, and interviews with selected households. The study shows how land use rights shifted over time and reveals that households obtained most of their agricultural land and forestland through a claim process. Original households were mainly land claimers, while migrants were land buyers. The process of formalization and allocation of tenure triggered inequality among households. Attention is needed in future land governance and tenure reforms in order to safeguard the land use rights of local people in an equitable manner.

  17. Land use change and landslide characteristics analysis for community-based disaster mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chien-Yuan; Huang, Wen-Lin

    2013-05-01

    On August 8, 2009, Typhoon Morakot brought heavy rain to Taiwan, causing numerous landslides and debris flows in the Taihe village area of Meishan Township, Chiayi County, in south-central Taiwan. In the Taihe land is primary used for agriculture and land use management may be a factor in the area's landslides. This study explores Typhoon Morakot-induced landslides and land use changes between 1999 and 2009 using GIS with the aid of field investigation. Spot 5 satellite images with a resolution of 2.5 m are used for landslide interpretation and manually digitalized in GIS. A statistical analysis for landslide frequency-area distribution was used to identify the landslide characteristics associated with different types of land use. There were 243 landslides with a total area of 2.75 km(2) in the study area. The area is located in intrinsically fragile combinations of sandstone and shale. Typhoon Morakot-induced landslides show a power-law distribution in the study area. Landslides were mainly located in steep slope areas containing natural forest and in areas planted with bamboo, tea, and betel nut. Land covered with natural forest shows the highest landslide ratio, followed by bamboo, betel nut, and tea. Landslides thus show a higher ratio in areas planted with shallow root vegetation such as bamboo, betel nut, and tea. Furthermore, the degree of basin development is proportional to the landslide ratio. The results show that a change in vegetation cover results in a modified landslide area and frequency and changed land use areas have higher landslide ratios than non-changed. Land use management and community-based disaster prevention are needed in mountainous areas of Taiwan for hazard mitigation.

  18. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce

  19. Land Surface Model (LSM 1.0) for Ecological, Hydrological, Atmospheric Studies

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The NCAR LSM 1.0 is a land surface model developed to examine biogeophysical and biogeochemical land-atmosphere interactions, especially the effects of land surfaces...

  20. A Stochastic Model for the Landing Dispersion of Hazard Detection and Avoidance Capable Flight Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, L.

    2014-06-01

    To support landing site assessments for HDA-capable flight systems and to facilitate trade studies between the potential HDA architectures versus the yielded probability of safe landing a stochastic landing dispersion model has been developed.

  1. Marketing Model for Community College.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chahin, Jaime

    In order to survive projected enrollment decreases and to better serve nontraditional students, community colleges must develop marketing plans that make effective use of five community resources: local school system personnel, business and industry, civic and social service agencies, college personnel, and the local media. In approaching these…

  2. Urban slum structure: integrating socioeconomic and land cover data to model slum evolution in Salvador, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Kathryn P; Seto, Karen C; Costa, Federico; Corburn, Jason; Reis, Mitermayer G; Ko, Albert I; Diuk-Wasser, Maria A

    2013-10-20

    The expansion of urban slums is a key challenge for public and social policy in the 21st century. The heterogeneous and dynamic nature of slum communities limits the use of rigid slum definitions. A systematic and flexible approach to characterize, delineate and model urban slum structure at an operational resolution is essential to plan, deploy, and monitor interventions at the local and national level. We modeled the multi-dimensional structure of urban slums in the city of Salvador, a city of 3 million inhabitants in Brazil, by integrating census-derived socioeconomic variables and remotely-sensed land cover variables. We assessed the correlation between the two sets of variables using canonical correlation analysis, identified land cover proxies for the socioeconomic variables, and produced an integrated map of deprivation in Salvador at 30 m × 30 m resolution. The canonical analysis identified three significant ordination axes that described the structure of Salvador census tracts according to land cover and socioeconomic features. The first canonical axis captured a gradient from crowded, low-income communities with corrugated roof housing to higher-income communities. The second canonical axis discriminated among socioeconomic variables characterizing the most marginalized census tracts, those without access to sanitation or piped water. The third canonical axis accounted for the least amount of variation, but discriminated between high-income areas with white-painted or tiled roofs from lower-income areas. Our approach captures the socioeconomic and land cover heterogeneity within and between slum settlements and identifies the most marginalized communities in a large, complex urban setting. These findings indicate that changes in the canonical scores for slum areas can be used to track their evolution and to monitor the impact of development programs such as slum upgrading.

  3. Land

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Audouin, M

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available the factors contributing to desertification and practical measures necessary to combat desertification and mitigate the effect of drought. The priority issues reported on in this chapter are soil and veld degradation, and the loss of land for agricultural use....

  4. Role of land state in a high resolution mesoscale model

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    ... Proceedings – Mathematical Sciences · Resonance – Journal of Science ... Land surface characteristics; high resolution mesoscale model; Uttarakhand ... to predict realistic location, timing, amount,intensity and distribution of rainfall ... region embedded within two low pressure centers over Arabian Seaand Bay of Bengal.

  5. Possibilities of Land Administration Domain Model (LADM) implementation in Nigeria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Babalola, S.O.; Rahman, A.A.; Choon, L.T.; Van Oosterom, P.J.M.

    2015-01-01

    LADM covers essential information associated components of land administration and management including those over water and elements above and below the surface of the earth. LADM standard provides an abstract conceptual model with three packages and one sub-package. LADM defined terminology for a

  6. Modelling the Landing of a Plane in a Calculus Lab

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morante, Antonio; Vallejo, Jose A.

    2012-01-01

    We exhibit a simple model of a plane landing that involves only basic concepts of differential calculus, so it is suitable for a first-year calculus lab. We use the computer algebra system Maxima and the interactive geometry software GeoGebra to do the computations and graphics. (Contains 5 figures and 1 note.)

  7. Study on Community Participation in The Land Clearing without Burning in Gambut Sub-District, South Kalimantan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fonny Rianawati

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In connection with the Environment Minister regulation number 10 year 2010 about the Mechanism of Pollution Prevention and Environment and Life Damage chapter II, Article 3 (1 said that all of business and activities that use the forest or land should implement  land clearing without burning (LCWB and is expected that all participating land preparation activities to implement these policies. This study was conducted to determine the level of community perception on LCWB and the land waste utilization by the community in Gambut Sub-district, South Kalimantan, Indonesia. The results showed that 15 respondent (49.83% already knew about land clearing without burning. Low level of community participation is caused by community understanding about CLBW still low. About 64 % of respondents was included in the good category because the community has an interest to cultivate a waste from land clearing to decrease environment contamination.  About 60 % of the community thought that LCWB waste can be used for various purposes. Waste types which usually utilize by community was grass and rice husks.  The wastes were used as organic fertilizer and animal feed without further processing.

  8. Performance engineering in the community atmosphere model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Worley, P; Mirin, A; Drake, J; Sawyer, W

    2006-01-01

    The Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) is the atmospheric component of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and is the primary consumer of computer resources in typical CCSM simulations. Performance engineering has been an important aspect of CAM development throughout its existence. This paper briefly summarizes these efforts and their impacts over the past five years

  9. Modeling land-surface/atmosphere dynamics for CHAMMP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gutowski, W.J. Jr.

    1993-01-01

    Project progress is described on a DOE CHAMP project to model the land-surface/atmosphere coupling in a heterogeneous environment. This work is a collaboration between scientists at Iowa State University and the University of New Hampshire. Work has proceeded in two areas: baseline model coupling and data base development for model validation. The core model elements (land model, atmosphere model) have been ported to the Principal Investigator's computing system and baseline coupling has commenced. The initial target data base is the set of observations from the FIFE field campaign, which is in the process of being acquired. For the remainder of the project period, additional data from the region surrounding the FIFE site and from other field campaigns will be acquired to determine how to best extrapolate results from the initial target region to the rest of the globe. In addition, variants of the coupled model will be used to perform experiments examining resolution requirements and coupling strategies for land-atmosphere coupling in a heterogeneous environment

  10. Modelling regional land change scenarios to assess land abandonment and reforestation dynamics in the Pyrenees (France)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vacquie, Laure; Houet, Thomas; Sohl, Terry L.; Reker, Ryan R.; Sayler, Kristi L.

    2015-01-01

    Over the last decades and centuries, European mountain landscapes have experienced substantial transformations. Natural and anthropogenic LULC changes (land use and land cover changes), especially agro-pastoral activities, have directly influenced the spatial organization and composition of European mountain landscapes. For the past sixty years, natural reforestation has been occurring due to a decline in both agricultural production activities and rural population. Stakeholders, to better anticipate future changes, need spatially and temporally explicit models to identify areas at risk of land change and possible abandonment. This paper presents an integrated approach combining forecasting scenarios and a LULC changes simulation model to assess where LULC changes may occur in the Pyrenees Mountains, based on historical LULC trends and a range of future socio-economic drivers. The proposed methodology considers local specificities of the Pyrenean valleys, sub-regional climate and topographical properties, and regional economic policies. Results indicate that some regions are projected to face strong abandonment, regardless of the scenario conditions. Overall, high rates of change are associated with administrative regions where land productivity is highly dependent on socio-economic drivers and climatic and environmental conditions limit intensive (agricultural and/or pastoral) production and profitability. The combination of the results for the four scenarios allows assessments of where encroachment (e.g. colonization by shrublands) and reforestation are the most probable. This assessment intends to provide insight into the potential future development of the Pyrenees to help identify areas that are the most sensitive to change and to guide decision makers to help their management decisions.

  11. Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM). I: Model intercomparison with current land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuer, L.; Huisman, J.A.; Willems, P.; Bormann, H.; Bronstert, A.; Croke, B.F.W.; Frede, H.-G.; Graff, T.; Hubrechts, L.; Jakeman, A.J.; Kite, G.; Lanini, J.; Leavesley, G.; Lettenmaier, D.P.; Lindstrom, G.; Seibert, J.; Sivapalan, M.; Viney, N.R.

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces the project on 'Assessing the impact of land use change on hydrology by ensemble modeling (LUCHEM)' that aims at investigating the envelope of predictions on changes in hydrological fluxes due to land use change. As part of a series of four papers, this paper outlines the motivation and setup of LUCHEM, and presents a model intercomparison for the present-day simulation results. Such an intercomparison provides a valuable basis to investigate the effects of different model structures on model predictions and paves the ground for the analysis of the performance of multi-model ensembles and the reliability of the scenario predictions in companion papers. In this study, we applied a set of 10 lumped, semi-lumped and fully distributed hydrological models that have been previously used in land use change studies to the low mountainous Dill catchment, Germany. Substantial differences in model performance were observed with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies ranging from 0.53 to 0.92. Differences in model performance were attributed to (1) model input data, (2) model calibration and (3) the physical basis of the models. The models were applied with two sets of input data: an original and a homogenized data set. This homogenization of precipitation, temperature and leaf area index was performed to reduce the variation between the models. Homogenization improved the comparability of model simulations and resulted in a reduced average bias, although some variation in model data input remained. The effect of the physical differences between models on the long-term water balance was mainly attributed to differences in how models represent evapotranspiration. Semi-lumped and lumped conceptual models slightly outperformed the fully distributed and physically based models. This was attributed to the automatic model calibration typically used for this type of models. Overall, however, we conclude that there was no superior model if several measures of model

  12. Modeling green infrastructure land use changes on future air ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green infrastructure can be a cost-effective approach for reducing stormwater runoff and improving water quality as a result, but it could also bring co-benefits for air quality: less impervious surfaces and more vegetation can decrease the urban heat island effect, and also result in more removal of air pollutants via dry deposition with increased vegetative surfaces. Cooler surface temperatures can also decrease ozone formation through the increases of NOx titration; however, cooler surface temperatures also lower the height of the boundary layer resulting in more concentrated pollutants within the same volume of air, especially for primary emitted pollutants (e.g. NOx, CO, primary particulate matter). To better understand how green infrastructure impacts air quality, the interactions between all of these processes must be considered collectively. In this study, we use a comprehensive coupled meteorology-air quality model (WRF-CMAQ) to simulate the influence of planned land use changes that include green infrastructure in Kansas City (KC) on regional meteorology and air quality. Current and future land use data was provided by the Mid-America Regional Council for 2012 and 2040 (projected land use due to population growth, city planning and green infrastructure implementation). These land use datasets were incorporated into the WRF-CMAQ modeling system allowing the modeling system to propagate the changes in vegetation and impervious surface coverage on meteoro

  13. Modeling biofuel expansion effects on land use change dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warner, Ethan; Inman, Daniel; Kunstman, Benjamin; Bush, Brian; Vimmerstedt, Laura; Macknick, Jordan; Zhang Yimin; Peterson, Steve

    2013-01-01

    Increasing demand for crop-based biofuels, in addition to other human drivers of land use, induces direct and indirect land use changes (LUC). Our system dynamics tool is intended to complement existing LUC modeling approaches and to improve the understanding of global LUC drivers and dynamics by allowing examination of global LUC under diverse scenarios and varying model assumptions. We report on a small subset of such analyses. This model provides insights into the drivers and dynamic interactions of LUC (e.g., dietary choices and biofuel policy) and is not intended to assert improvement in numerical results relative to other works. Demand for food commodities are mostly met in high food and high crop-based biofuel demand scenarios, but cropland must expand substantially. Meeting roughly 25% of global transportation fuel demand by 2050 with biofuels requires >2 times the land used to meet food demands under a presumed 40% increase in per capita food demand. In comparison, the high food demand scenario requires greater pastureland for meat production, leading to larger overall expansion into forest and grassland. Our results indicate that, in all scenarios, there is a potential for supply shortfalls, and associated upward pressure on prices, of food commodities requiring higher land use intensity (e.g., beef) which biofuels could exacerbate. (letter)

  14. Land-use systems affect Archaeal community structure and functional diversity in western Amazon soils

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Acácio Aparecido Navarrete

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available The study of the ecology of soil microbial communities at relevant spatial scales is primordial in the wide Amazon region due to the current land use changes. In this study, the diversity of the Archaea domain (community structure and ammonia-oxidizing Archaea (richness and community composition were investigated using molecular biology-based techniques in different land-use systems in western Amazonia, Brazil. Soil samples were collected in two periods with high precipitation (March 2008 and January 2009 from Inceptisols under primary tropical rainforest, secondary forest (5-20 year old, agricultural systems of indigenous people and cattle pasture. Denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis of polymerase chain reaction-amplified DNA (PCR-DGGE using the 16S rRNA gene as a biomarker showed that archaeal community structures in crops and pasture soils are different from those in primary forest soil, which is more similar to the community structure in secondary forest soil. Sequence analysis of excised DGGE bands indicated the presence of crenarchaeal and euryarchaeal organisms. Based on clone library analysis of the gene coding the subunit of the enzyme ammonia monooxygenase (amoA of Archaea (306 sequences, the Shannon-Wiener function and Simpson's index showed a greater ammonia-oxidizing archaeal diversity in primary forest soils (H' = 2.1486; D = 0.1366, followed by a lower diversity in soils under pasture (H' = 1.9629; D = 0.1715, crops (H' = 1.4613; D = 0.3309 and secondary forest (H' = 0.8633; D = 0.5405. All cloned inserts were similar to the Crenarchaeota amoA gene clones (identity > 95 % previously found in soils and sediments and distributed primarily in three major phylogenetic clusters. The findings indicate that agricultural systems of indigenous people and cattle pasture affect the archaeal community structure and diversity of ammonia-oxidizing Archaea in western Amazon soils.

  15. Measuring the impact of urban policies on transportation energy saving using a land use-transport model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Masanobu Kii

    2014-03-01

    This study demonstrates the applicability of a land-use transport model to the assessment of urban policies for building smart communities. First, we outline a model that explicitly formulates the actors' location-related decisions and travel behavior. Second, we apply this model to two urban policies – road pricing and land-use regulation – to assess their long-term impact on energy saving and sustainability using the case of a simplified synthetic city. Our study verifies that, under assumed conditions, the model has the capacity to assess urban policies on energy use and sustainability in a consistent fashion.

  16. Effects of different land use on soil chemical properties, decomposition rate and earthworm communities in tropical Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Geissen, V.; Peña-Peña, K.; Huerta, E.

    2009-01-01

    The effects of land use on soil chemical properties were evaluated, and earthworm communities and the decomposition rate of three typical land use systems in tropical Mexico, namely banana plantations (B), agroforestry systems (AF) and a successional forest (S) were compared. The study was carried

  17. Alterations in soil microbial community composition and biomass following agricultural land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Qian; Wu, Junjun; Yang, Fan; Lei, Yao; Zhang, Quanfa; Cheng, Xiaoli

    2016-11-04

    The effect of agricultural land use change on soil microbial community composition and biomass remains a widely debated topic. Here, we investigated soil microbial community composition and biomass [e.g., bacteria (B), fungi (F), Arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) and Actinomycete (ACT)] using phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) analysis, and basal microbial respiration in afforested, cropland and adjacent uncultivated soils in central China. We also investigated soil organic carbon and nitrogen (SOC and SON), labile carbon and nitrogen (LC and LN), recalcitrant carbon and nitrogen (RC and RN), pH, moisture, and temperature. Afforestation averaged higher microbial PLFA biomass compared with cropland and uncultivated soils with higher values in top soils than deep soils. The microbial PLFA biomass was strongly correlated with SON and LC. Higher SOC, SON, LC, LN, moisture and lower pH in afforested soils could be explained approximately 87.3% of total variation of higher total PLFAs. Afforestation also enhanced the F: B ratios compared with cropland. The basal microbial respiration was higher while the basal microbial respiration on a per-unit-PLFA basis was lower in afforested land than adjacent cropland and uncultivated land, suggesting afforestation may increase soil C utilization efficiency and decrease respiration loss in afforested soils.

  18. The Community Water Model (CWATM) / Development of a community driven global water model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burek, Peter; Satoh, Yusuke; Greve, Peter; Kahil, Taher; Wada, Yoshihide

    2017-04-01

    With a growing population and economic development, it is expected that water demands will increase significantly in the future, especially in developing regions. At the same time, climate change is expected to alter spatial patterns of hydrological cycle and will have global, regional and local impacts on water availability. Thus, it is important to assess water supply, water demand and environmental needs over time to identify the populations and locations that will be most affected by these changes linked to water scarcity, droughts and floods. The Community Water Model (CWATM) will be designed for this purpose in that it includes an accounting of how future water demands will evolve in response to socioeconomic change and how water availability will change in response to climate. CWATM represents one of the new key elements of IIASA's Water program. It has been developed to work flexibly at both global and regional level at different spatial resolutions. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water community worldwide and is flexible enough linking to further planned developments such as water quality and hydro-economic modules. CWATM will be a basis to develop a next-generation global hydro-economic modeling framework that represents the economic trade-offs among different water management options over a basin looking at water supply infrastructure and demand managements. The integrated modeling framework will consider water demand from agriculture, domestic, energy, industry and environment, investment needs to alleviate future water scarcity, and will provide a portfolio of economically optimal solutions for achieving future water management options under the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) for example. In addition, it will be able to track the energy requirements associated with the water supply system e.g., pumping, desalination and interbasin transfer to realize the linkage with the water-energy economy. In

  19. From land use to land cover: Restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment - earth system model and the implications for CMIP5 RCP simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Vittorio, Alan V. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chini, Louise M. [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Mao, Jiafu [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Shi, Xiaoying [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Truesdale, John E. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Craig, Anthony P. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Calvin, Katherine V. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Jones, Andrew D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Collins, William D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Edmonds, James A. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Hurtt, George [Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Thornton, Peter E. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Thomson, Allison M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2014-11-27

    Climate projections depend on scenarios of fossil fuel emissions and land use change, and the IPCC AR5 parallel process assumes consistent climate scenarios across Integrated Assessment and Earth System Models (IAMs and ESMs). To facilitate consistency, CMIP5 used a novel land use harmonization to provide ESMs with seamless, 1500-2100 land use trajectories generated by historical data and four IAMs. However, we have identified and partially addressed a major gap in the CMIP5 land coupling design. The CMIP5 Community ESM (CESM) global afforestation is only 22% of RCP4.5 afforestation from 2005 to 2100. Likewise, only 17% of the Global Change Assessment Model’s (GCAM’s) 2040 RCP4.5 afforestation signal, and none of the pasture loss, were transmitted to CESM within a newly integrated model. This is a critical problem because afforestation is necessary for achieving the RCP4.5 climate stabilization. We attempted to rectify this problem by modifying only the ESM component of the integrated model, enabling CESM to simulate 66% of GCAM’s afforestation in 2040, and 94% of GCAM’s pasture loss as grassland and shrubland losses. This additional afforestation increases vegetation carbon gain by 19 PgC and decreases atmospheric CO2 gain by 8 ppmv from 2005 to 2040, implying different climate scenarios between CMIP5 GCAM and CESM. Similar inconsistencies likely exist in other CMIP5 model results, primarily because land cover information is not shared between models, with possible contributions from afforestation exceeding model-specific, potentially viable forest area. Further work to harmonize land cover among models will be required to adequately rectify this problem.

  20. Verification of land-atmosphere coupling in forecast models, reanalyses and land surface models using flux site observations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirmeyer, Paul A; Chen, Liang; Wu, Jiexia; Shin, Chul-Su; Huang, Bohua; Cash, Benjamin A; Bosilovich, Michael G; Mahanama, Sarith; Koster, Randal D; Santanello, Joseph A; Ek, Michael B; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Dutra, Emanuel; Lawrence, D M

    2018-02-01

    We confront four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM+GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly under-represent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land-atmosphere coupling), and may over-represent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally under-represent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Our analysis illuminates targets for coupled land-atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally-distributed observational monitoring.

  1. The Development in modeling Tibetan Plateau Land/Climate Interaction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Yongkang; Liu, Ye; li, qian; Maheswor Shrestha, Maheswor; Ma, Hsi-Yen; Cox, Peter; Sun, shufen; Koike, Toshio

    2015-04-01

    Tibetan Plateau (TP) plays an important role in influencing the continental and planetary scale climate, including East Asian and South Asian monsoon, circulation and precipitation over West Pacific and Indian Oceans. The numerical study has identified TP as the area with strongest land/atmosphere interactions over the midlatitude land. The land degradation there has also affected the monsoon precipitation in TP along the monsoon pathway. The water cycle there affects water sources for major Asian river systems, which include the Tarim, Amu Darya, Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Irrawaddy, Salween, Mekong, Yellow, and Yangtze Rivers. Despite the importance of TP land process in the climate system, the TP land surface processes are poorly modeled due to lack of data available for model validation. To better understand, simulate, and project the role of Tibetan Plateau land surface processes, better parameterization of the Tibetan Land surface processes have been developed and evaluated. The recently available field measurement there and satellite observation have greatly helped this development. This paper presents these new developments and preliminary results using the newly developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, frozen soil model, and glacier model. In recent CMIP5 simulation, the CMIP5 models with dynamic vegetation model show poor performance in simulating the TP vegetation and climate. To better simulate the TP vegetation condition and its interaction with climate, we have developed biophysical/dynamic vegetation model, the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version 4/Top-down Representation of Interactive Foliage and Flora Including Dynamics Model (SSiB4/TRIFFID), based on water, carbon, and energy balance. The simulated vegetation variables are updates, driven by carbon assimilation, allocation, and accumulation, as well as competition between plant functional types. The model has been validated with the station data, including those measured over the TP

  2. A complex systems approach to dynamic spatial simulation modeling: LandUse and LandCover change in the Ecuadorian Amazon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Messina, Joseph Paul

    The Ecuadorian Amazon, lying in the headwaters of the Napo and Aguarico River valleys, is experiencing rapid change in LandUse and LandCover (LULC) conditions and regional landscape diversity uniquely tied to spontaneous agricultural colonization and oil exploration. Beginning in the early 1970s, spontaneous colonization occurred on squattered lands located adjacent to oil company roads and in government development sectors composed of multiple 50 ha land parcels organized into "piano key" shaped family farms or fincas. Since fincas are managed at the household level as spatially discrete, temporally independent units, land conversion at the finca-level is recognized as the chief proximate cause of deforestation within the region. Focusing on the spatial and temporal dynamics of deforestation, agricultural extensification, and plant succession at the finca-level, and urbanization at the community-level, cell-based morphogenetic models of LandUse and LandCover Change (LULCC) were developed as the foundation for predictive models of regional LULCC dynamics and landscape diversity. Two cellular automata models were developed and used to integrate biophysical, geographical, and social variables to characterize temporally dynamic landscapes. The human, geographical, and biophysical dimensions of land use and land cover change were examined, specifically deforestation, anthropogenic extensification, and reforestation. Remotely-sensed data ranging temporally from the 1970s through 1999, combined with thematic map coverages of biophysical gradients and geographical accessibility, were linked to household and community survey data collected in 1990 and 1999. Image processing techniques for LULC characterization and spatial analyses of landscape structure were used to assess the rate and nature of LULCC throughout the time-series. In addition, LULC and LULCC associated with secondary plant succession and agricultural extensification were assessed and simulated for specific

  3. Changes in diversity, abundance, and structure of soil bacterial communities in Brazilian Savanna under different land use systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rampelotto, Pabulo Henrique; de Siqueira Ferreira, Adão; Barboza, Anthony Diego Muller; Roesch, Luiz Fernando Wurdig

    2013-10-01

    The Brazilian Savanna, also known as "Cerrado", is the richest and most diverse savanna in the world and has been ranked as one of the main hotspots of biodiversity. The Cerrado is a representative biome in Central Brazil and the second largest biome in species diversity of South America. Nevertheless, large areas of native vegetation have been converted to agricultural land including grain production, livestock, and forestry. In this view, understanding how land use affects microbial communities is fundamental for the sustainable management of agricultural ecosystems. The aim of this work was to analyze and compare the soil bacterial communities from the Brazilian Cerrado associated with different land use systems using high throughput pyrosequencing of 16S rRNA genes. Relevant differences were observed in the abundance and structure of bacterial communities in soils under different land use systems. On the other hand, the diversity of bacterial communities was not relevantly changed among the sites studied. Land use systems had also an important impact on specific bacterial groups in soil, which might change the soil function and the ecological processes. Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, and Actinobacteria were the most abundant groups in the Brazilian Cerrado. These findings suggest that more important than analyzing the general diversity is to analyze the composition of the communities. Since soil type was the same among the sites, we might assume that land use was the main factor defining the abundance and structure of bacterial communities.

  4. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling: the lulcc R package

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-10-01

    We present the lulcc software package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of alternative models; and (3) additional software is required because existing applications frequently perform only the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a data set included with the package. It is envisaged that lulcc will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  5. Modelling the regional application of stakeholder identified land management strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Irvine, B. J.; Fleskens, L.; Kirkby, M. J.

    2012-04-01

    The DESIRE project has trialled a series of sustainable land management (SLM) technologies. These technologies have been identified as being beneficial in mitigating land degradation by local stakeholders from a range of semi-arid study sites. The field results and the qualitative WOCAT technology assessment ftom across the study sites have been used to develop the adapted PESERA SLM model. This paper considers the development of the adapted PESERA SLM model and the potential for applying locally successful SLM technologies across a wider range of climatic and environmental conditions with respect to degradation risk, biomass production and the investment cost interface (PESERA/DESMICE). The integrate PESERA/DESMICE model contributes to the policy debate by providing a biophysical and socio-economic assessment of technology and policy scenarios.

  6. developing a one stop shop model for integrated land information

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    DEPT OF AGRICULTURAL ENGINEERING

    which will integrate the data on land ownership, land use and land value for all the land agen- ... services to the investor and other potential clients of land sector agencies involved in the land ..... account types such as a general user, re-.

  7. Community Mediation. A Model for Romania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Radu CHEREJI

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Community mediation takes all forms and shapes all over the world. In order to better understand its limitations in adapting to different contexts, we have compared the evolution of community mediation services in two totally different systems, USA and Sri Lanka. Based on this analysis and the results of a research conducted in Cluj-Napoca in the fall of 2013, we have recommended a community mediation model suitable for the current Romanian social, economic and cultural framework.

  8. Investigation of bacterial communities in peat land of the Gahai Lake natural conservation area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Yani; Wang, Jinchang; Zhan, Zhigao; Guan, Limei; Jin, Liang; Zheng, Guohua

    2017-10-01

    Peat is involved in the global carbon cycle and water conservation; therefore, it is implicated in global environmental change. Microorganisms play an important role in the function of peat. To investigate the bacterial communities in peat of Gahai Lake, different locations and depths were sampled and Illumina Miseq sequencing was used to analyze the microbial community. Chemical properties of peat samples were analyzed by China state standard methods (GB methods). The results showed that bacterial communities were affected by depth, with bacterial diversity and community structure at 90 and 120 cm significantly different from that at 10, 30 and 50 cm depth from the peat surface. Chemical properties of peat land including organic matter, total nitrogen and humus content did not significantly influence bacterial community structure in peat, with only one group from genus Rhizomicrobium that was significantly correlated with total nitrogen. A substantial proportion of the bacterial sequences were unclassified (1.4%), which indicates the great application potential of peat in the Gahai Lake natural conservation area in the future.

  9. Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Sujay V.; Wang, Shugong; Mocko, David M.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Xia, Youlong

    2017-11-01

    Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

  10. Model Bera dalam Sistem Agroforestri (Fallow Land Model in Agroforestry Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Priyono Suryanto

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of tree-based agroforestry model gives consequences to the space utilization dominated by trees. Farmers take action on this condition by conniving the fallow land. This research was aimed to know the fallow land model, find the key parameters of fallow land model, and formulating the management of fallow land. The spatial model of agroforestry used in this research were trees along border, alley cropping, alternate rows and mixer. The actual data obtained were tree height, tree diameter, crown diameter, land width, and light intensity; the calculated data were land extent, the percentage of crown cover and crown density. The analysis used to determining the percentage of crown cover to calculate the affective arable land area was zone system. Zonation system maked for four zone : 1 zone 1 interval 0-1 m ; 2 zone 2 interval 1-2 m; zone 3 interval 2-3 m; zone 4 interval 3-4m.Key words: agroforestry, fallow land, silviculture, land cover, resource sharing, crown dynamic

  11. Small Business Training Models for Community Growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jellison, Holly M., Ed.

    Nine successful community college programs for small business management training are described in this report in terms of their college and economic context, purpose, offerings, delivery modes, operating and marketing strategies, community outreach, support services, faculty and staff, evaluation, and future directions. The model programs are…

  12. Soil denitrifier community size changes with land use change to perennial bioenergy cropping systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Karen A.; Deen, Bill; Dunfield, Kari E.

    2016-10-01

    Dedicated biomass crops are required for future bioenergy production. However, the effects of large-scale land use change (LUC) from traditional annual crops, such as corn-soybean rotations to the perennial grasses (PGs) switchgrass and miscanthus, on soil microbial community functioning is largely unknown. Specifically, ecologically significant denitrifying communities, which regulate N2O production and consumption in soils, may respond differently to LUC due to differences in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) inputs between crop types and management systems. Our objective was to quantify bacterial denitrifying gene abundances as influenced by corn-soybean crop production compared to PG biomass production. A field trial was established in 2008 at the Elora Research Station in Ontario, Canada (n  =  30), with miscanthus and switchgrass grown alongside corn-soybean rotations at different N rates (0 and 160 kg N ha-1) and biomass harvest dates within PG plots. Soil was collected on four dates from 2011 to 2012 and quantitative PCR was used to enumerate the total bacterial community (16S rRNA) and communities of bacterial denitrifiers by targeting nitrite reductase (nirS) and N2O reductase (nosZ) genes. Miscanthus produced significantly larger yields and supported larger nosZ denitrifying communities than corn-soybean rotations regardless of management, indicating large-scale LUC from corn-soybean to miscanthus may be suitable in variable Ontario climatic conditions and under varied management, while potentially mitigating soil N2O emissions. Harvesting switchgrass in the spring decreased yields in N-fertilized plots, but did not affect gene abundances. Standing miscanthus overwinter resulted in higher 16S rRNA and nirS gene copies than in fall-harvested crops. However, the size of the total (16S rRNA) and denitrifying bacterial communities changed differently over time and in response to LUC, indicating varying controls on these communities.

  13. Real estate appraisal of land lots using GAMLSS models

    OpenAIRE

    Florencio, Lutemberg; Cribari-Neto, Francisco; Ospina, Raydonal

    2011-01-01

    The valuation of real estates (e.g., house, land, among others) is of extreme importance for decision making. Their singular characteristics make valuation through hedonic pricing methods dificult since the theory does not specify the correct regression functional form nor which explanatory variables should be included in the hedonic equation. In this article we perform real estate appraisal using a class of regression models proposed by Rigby & Stasinopoulos (2005): generalized additive mode...

  14. Optimal land use/land cover classification using remote sensing imagery for hydrological modeling in a Himalayan watersched

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Saran, S.; Sterk, G.; Kumar, S.

    2009-01-01

    Land use/land cover is an important watershed surface characteristic that affects surface runoff and erosion. Many of the available hydrological models divide the watershed into Hydrological Response Units (HRU), which are spatial units with expected similar hydrological behaviours. The division

  15. Models for estimating runway landing capacity with Microwave Landing System (MLS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tosic, V.; Horonjeff, R.

    1975-01-01

    A model is developed which is capable of computing the ultimate landing runway capacity, under ILS and MLS conditions, when aircraft population characteristics and air traffic control separation rules are given. This model can be applied in situations when only a horizontal separation between aircraft approaching a runway is allowed, as well as when both vertical and horizontal separations are possible. It is assumed that the system is free of errors, that is that aircraft arrive at specified points along the prescribed flight path precisely when the controllers intend for them to arrive at these points. Although in the real world there is no such thing as an error-free system, the assumption is adequate for a qualitative comparison of MLS with ILS. Results suggest that an increase in runway landing capacity, caused by introducing the MLS multiple approach paths, is to be expected only when an aircraft population consists of aircraft with significantly differing approach speeds and particularly in situations when vertical separation can be applied. Vertical separation can only be applied if one of the types of aircraft in the mix has a very steep descent angle.

  16. Sensitivity of tsunami evacuation modeling to direction and land cover assumptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtlein, Mathew C.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2015-01-01

    Although anisotropic least-cost-distance (LCD) modeling is becoming a common tool for estimating pedestrian-evacuation travel times out of tsunami hazard zones, there has been insufficient attention paid to understanding model sensitivity behind the estimates. To support tsunami risk-reduction planning, we explore two aspects of LCD modeling as it applies to pedestrian evacuations and use the coastal community of Seward, Alaska, as our case study. First, we explore the sensitivity of modeling to the direction of movement by comparing standard safety-to-hazard evacuation times to hazard-to-safety evacuation times for a sample of 3985 points in Seward's tsunami-hazard zone. Safety-to-hazard evacuation times slightly overestimated hazard-to-safety evacuation times but the strong relationship to the hazard-to-safety evacuation times, slightly conservative bias, and shorter processing times of the safety-to-hazard approach make it the preferred approach. Second, we explore how variations in land cover speed conservation values (SCVs) influence model performance using a Monte Carlo approach with one thousand sets of land cover SCVs. The LCD model was relatively robust to changes in land cover SCVs with the magnitude of local model sensitivity greatest in areas with higher evacuation times or with wetland or shore land cover types, where model results may slightly underestimate travel times. This study demonstrates that emergency managers should be concerned not only with populations in locations with evacuation times greater than wave arrival times, but also with populations with evacuation times lower than but close to expected wave arrival times, particularly if they are required to cross wetlands or beaches.

  17. Sustainable Dry Land Management Model on Corn Agribusiness System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulia Pujiharti

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The study aimed at building model of dry land management. Dynamic System Analysis was used to build model and Powersim 2.51 version for simulating. The parameter used in model were fertilizer (urea, SP-36, ACL, productivity (corn, cassava, mungbean, soil nutrient (N, P, K, crop nutrient requirements (corn, cassava, mungbean, mucuna, price (corn, cassava, mungbeans corn flour, feed, urea, SP-36, KCl, food security credit, area planted of (maize, cassava, mungbean, area harvested of (maize, cassava, mungbean, (corn, cassava, mungbean production, wages and farmer income. Sustainable indicator for ecology aspect was soil fertility level, economic aspects were productivity and farmer income, and social aspects were job possibility and traditions. The simulation result indicated that sustainable dry land management can improve soil fertility and increase farmer revenue, became sustainable farming system and farmer society. On the other hand, conventional dry land management decreased soil fertility and yield, caused farmer earnings to decrease and a farm activity could not be continued. Fertilizer distribution did not fulfill farmer requirement, which caused fertilizer scarcity. Food security credit increased fertilizer application. Corn was processed to corn flour or feed to give value added.

  18. Modeling and simulating industrial land-use evolution in Shanghai, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Rongxu; Xu, Wei; Zhang, John; Staenz, Karl

    2018-01-01

    This study proposes a cellular automata-based Industrial and Residential Land Use Competition Model to simulate the dynamic spatial transformation of industrial land use in Shanghai, China. In the proposed model, land development activities in a city are delineated as competitions among different land-use types. The Hedonic Land Pricing Model is adopted to implement the competition framework. To improve simulation results, the Land Price Agglomeration Model was devised to simulate and adjust classic land price theory. A new evolutionary algorithm-based parameter estimation method was devised in place of traditional methods. Simulation results show that the proposed model closely resembles actual land transformation patterns and the model can not only simulate land development, but also redevelopment processes in metropolitan areas.

  19. Shifts in soil bacterial community after eight years of land-use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suleiman, Afnan Khalil Ahmad; Manoeli, Lupatini; Boldo, Juliano Tomazzoni; Pereira, Marcos G; Roesch, Luiz Fernando Wurdig

    2013-03-01

    The interaction between plants, soil and microorganisms is considered to be the major driver of ecosystem functions and any modification of plant cover and/or soil properties might affect the microbial structure, which, in turn, will influence ecological processes. Assuming that soil properties are the major drivers of soil bacterial diversity and structure within the same soil type, it can be postulated whether plant cover causes significant shifts in soil bacterial community composition. To address this question, this study used 16S rRNA pyrosequencing to detect differences in diversity, composition and/or relative abundance of bacterial taxa from an area covered by pristine forest, as well as eight-year-old grassland surrounded by the same forest. It was shown that a total of 69% of the operational taxonomic units (OTUs) were shared between environments. Overall, forest and grassland samples presented the same diversity and the clustering analysis did not show the occurrence of very distinctive bacterial communities between environments. However, 11 OTUs were detected in statistically significant higher abundance in the forest samples but in lower abundance in the grassland samples, whereas 12 OTUs occurred in statistically significant higher abundance in the grassland samples but in lower abundance in the forest samples. The results suggested the prevalence of a resilient core microbial community that did not suffer any change related to land use, soil type or edaphic conditions. The results illustrated that the history of land use might influence present-day community structure. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

  20. A land-use and land-cover modeling strategy to support a national assessment of carbon stocks and fluxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohl, Terry L.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Zhu, Zhi-Liang; Sayler, Kristi L.; Bennett, Stacie; Bouchard, Michelle; Reker, Ryan R.; Hawbaker, Todd; Wein, Anne; Liu, Shu-Guang; Kanengieter, Ronald; Acevedo, William

    2012-01-01

    Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.

  1. Generation of multi annual land use and crop rotation data for regional agro-ecosystem modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waldhoff, G.; Lussem, U.; Sulis, M.; Bareth, G.

    2017-12-01

    For agro-ecosystem modeling on a regional scale with systems like the Community Land Model (CLM), detailed crop type and crop rotation information on the parcel-level is of key importance. Only with this, accurate assessments of the fluxes associated with the succession of crops and their management are possible. However, sophisticated agro-ecosystem modeling for large regions is only feasible at grid resolutions, which are much coarser than the spatial resolution of modern land use maps (usually ca. 30 m). As a result, much of the original information content of the maps has to be dismissed during resampling. Here we present our mapping approach for the Rur catchment (located in the west of Germany), which was developed to address these demands and issues. We integrated remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) methods to classify multi temporal images of (e.g.) Landsat, RapidEye and Sentinel-2 to generate annual crop maps for the years 2008-2017 at 15 m spatial resolution (accuracy always ca. 90 %). A key aspect of our method is the consideration of crop phenology for the data selection and the analysis. In a GIS, the annul crop maps were integrated to a crop sequence dataset from which the major crop rotations were derived (based on the 10-years). To retain the multi annual crop succession and crop area information at coarser grid resolutions, cell-based land use fractions, including other land use classes were calculated for each year and for various target cell sizes (1-32 arc seconds). The resulting datasets contain the contribution (in percent) of every land use class to each cell. Our results show that parcels with the major crop types can be differentiated with a high accuracy and on an annual basis. The analysis of the crop sequence data revealed a very large number of different crop rotations, but only relatively few crop rotations cover larger areas. This strong diversity emphasizes the importance of information on crop rotations to reduce

  2. Land Use Change on Household Farms in the Ecuadorian Amazon: Design and Implementation of an Agent-Based Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mena, Carlos F; Walsh, Stephen J; Frizzelle, Brian G; Xiaozheng, Yao; Malanson, George P

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the design and implementation of an Agent-Based Model (ABM) used to simulate land use change on household farms in the Northern Ecuadorian Amazon (NEA). The ABM simulates decision-making processes at the household level that is examined through a longitudinal, socio-economic and demographic survey that was conducted in 1990 and 1999. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to establish spatial relationships between farms and their environment, while classified Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery is used to set initial land use/land cover conditions for the spatial simulation, assess from-to land use/land cover change patterns, and describe trajectories of land use change at the farm and landscape levels. Results from prior studies in the NEA provide insights into the key social and ecological variables, describe human behavioral functions, and examine population-environment interactions that are linked to deforestation and agricultural extensification, population migration, and demographic change. Within the architecture of the model, agents are classified as active or passive. The model comprises four modules, i.e., initialization, demography, agriculture, and migration that operate individually, but are linked through key household processes. The main outputs of the model include a spatially-explicit representation of the land use/land cover on survey and non-survey farms and at the landscape level for each annual time-step, as well as simulated socio-economic and demographic characteristics of households and communities. The work describes the design and implementation of the model and how population-environment interactions can be addressed in a frontier setting. The paper contributes to land change science by examining important pattern-process relations, advocating a spatial modeling approach that is capable of synthesizing fundamental relationships at the farm level, and links people and environment in complex ways.

  3. Land-atmosphere interaction patterns in southeastern South America using satellite products and climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spennemann, P. C.; Salvia, M.; Ruscica, R. C.; Sörensson, A. A.; Grings, F.; Karszenbaum, H.

    2018-02-01

    In regions of strong Land-Atmosphere (L-A) interaction, soil moisture (SM) conditions can impact the atmosphere through modulating the land surface fluxes. The importance of the identification of L-A interaction regions lies in the potential improvement of the weather/seasonal forecast and the better understanding of the physical mechanisms involved. This study aims to compare the terrestrial segment of the L-A interaction from satellite products and climate models, motivated by previous modeling studies pointing out southeastern South America (SESA) as a L-A hotspot during austral summer. In addition, the L-A interaction under dry or wet anomalous conditions over SESA is analyzed. To identify L-A hotspots the AMSRE-LPRM SM and MODIS land surface temperature products; coupled climate models and uncoupled land surface models were used. SESA highlights as a strong L-A interaction hotspot when employing different metrics, temporal scales and independent datasets, showing consistency between models and satellite estimations. Both AMSRE-LPRM bands (X and C) are consistent showing a strong L-A interaction hotspot over the Pampas ecoregion. Intensification and a larger spatial extent of the L-A interaction for dry summers was observed in both satellite products and models compared to wet summers. These results, which were derived from measured physical variables, are encouraging and promising for future studies analyzing L-A interactions. L-A interaction analysis is proposed here as a meeting point between remote sensing and climate modelling communities of Argentina, within a region with the highest agricultural and livestock production of the continent, but with an important lack of in-situ SM observations.

  4. Coupling a three-dimensional subsurface flow and transport model with a land surface model to simulate stream–aquifer–land interactions (CP v1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Bisht

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model is developed and applied to a site along the Columbia River to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The model features the coupling of the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5 and a massively parallel multiphysics reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN. The coupled model, named CP v1.0, is applied to a 400 m × 400 m study domain instrumented with groundwater monitoring wells along the Columbia River shoreline. CP v1.0 simulations are performed at three spatial resolutions (i.e., 2, 10, and 20 m over a 5-year period to evaluate the impact of hydroclimatic conditions and spatial resolution on simulated variables. Results show that the coupled model is capable of simulating groundwater–river-water interactions driven by river stage variability along managed river reaches, which are of global significance as a result of over 30 000 dams constructed worldwide during the past half-century. Our numerical experiments suggest that the land-surface energy partitioning is strongly modulated by groundwater–river-water interactions through expanding the periodically inundated fraction of the riparian zone, and enhancing moisture availability in the vadose zone via capillary rise in response to the river stage change. Meanwhile, CLM4.5 fails to capture the key hydrologic process (i.e., groundwater–river-water exchange at the site, and consequently simulates drastically different water and energy budgets. Furthermore, spatial resolution is found to significantly impact the accuracy of estimated the mass exchange rates at the boundaries of the aquifer, and it becomes critical when surface and subsurface become more tightly coupled with groundwater table within 6 to 7 meters below the surface. Inclusion of lateral subsurface flow influenced both the surface energy budget and subsurface transport processes as a result

  5. Coupling a three-dimensional subsurface flow and transport model with a land surface model to simulate stream-aquifer-land interactions (CP v1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bisht, Gautam; Huang, Maoyi; Zhou, Tian; Chen, Xingyuan; Dai, Heng; Hammond, Glenn E.; Riley, William J.; Downs, Janelle L.; Liu, Ying; Zachara, John M.

    2017-12-01

    A fully coupled three-dimensional surface and subsurface land model is developed and applied to a site along the Columbia River to simulate three-way interactions among river water, groundwater, and land surface processes. The model features the coupling of the Community Land Model version 4.5 (CLM4.5) and a massively parallel multiphysics reactive transport model (PFLOTRAN). The coupled model, named CP v1.0, is applied to a 400 m × 400 m study domain instrumented with groundwater monitoring wells along the Columbia River shoreline. CP v1.0 simulations are performed at three spatial resolutions (i.e., 2, 10, and 20 m) over a 5-year period to evaluate the impact of hydroclimatic conditions and spatial resolution on simulated variables. Results show that the coupled model is capable of simulating groundwater-river-water interactions driven by river stage variability along managed river reaches, which are of global significance as a result of over 30 000 dams constructed worldwide during the past half-century. Our numerical experiments suggest that the land-surface energy partitioning is strongly modulated by groundwater-river-water interactions through expanding the periodically inundated fraction of the riparian zone, and enhancing moisture availability in the vadose zone via capillary rise in response to the river stage change. Meanwhile, CLM4.5 fails to capture the key hydrologic process (i.e., groundwater-river-water exchange) at the site, and consequently simulates drastically different water and energy budgets. Furthermore, spatial resolution is found to significantly impact the accuracy of estimated the mass exchange rates at the boundaries of the aquifer, and it becomes critical when surface and subsurface become more tightly coupled with groundwater table within 6 to 7 meters below the surface. Inclusion of lateral subsurface flow influenced both the surface energy budget and subsurface transport processes as a result of river-water intrusion into the

  6. A new spatial multiple discrete-continuous modeling approach to land use change analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This report formulates a multiple discrete-continuous probit (MDCP) land-use model within a : spatially explicit economic structural framework for land-use change decisions. The spatial : MDCP model is capable of predicting both the type and intensit...

  7. Bio-economic farm modelling to analyse agricultural land productivity in Rwanda

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bidogeza, J.C.

    2011-01-01

    Keywords: Rwanda; farm household typology; sustainable technology adoption; multivariate analysis;
    land degradation; food security; bioeconomic model; crop simulation models; organic fertiliser; inorganic fertiliser; policy incentives

    In Rwanda, land degradation contributes to the

  8. Modelling asymmetric growth in crowded plant communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Damgaard, Christian

    2010-01-01

    A class of models that may be used to quantify the effect of size-asymmetric competition in crowded plant communities by estimating a community specific degree of size-asymmetric growth for each species in the community is suggested. The model consists of two parts: an individual size......-asymmetric growth part, where growth is assumed to be proportional to a power function of the size of the individual, and a term that reduces the relative growth rate as a decreasing function of the individual plant size and the competitive interactions from other plants in the neighbourhood....

  9. A New Conceptual Model for the Continuum of Land Rights | Whittal ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An aspect of this is land value and the degree of simplicity/complexity in land value is found to be well-aligned with the land rights types in the former continuum model. This is adopted as a suitable substitute for the former measure of informality/formality when locating land rights types on the horizontal axis. Legitimacy ...

  10. Urban Ecological Stewardship: Understanding the Structure, Function and Network of Community-based Urban Land Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lindsay K. Campbell

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Urban environmental stewardship activities are on the rise in cities throughout the Northeast. Groups participating in stewardship activities range in age, size, and geography and represent an increasingly complex and dynamic arrangement of civil society, government and business sectors. To better understand the structure, function and network of these community-based urban land managers, an assessment was conducted in 2004 by the research subcommittee of the Urban Ecology Collaborative. The goal of the assessment was to better understand the role of stewardship organizations engaged in urban ecology initiatives in selected major cities in the Northeastern U.S.: Boston, New Haven, New York City, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C. A total of 135 active organizations participated in this assessment. Findings include the discovery of a dynamic social network operating within cities, and a reserve of social capital and expertise that could be better utilized. Although often not the primary land owner, stewardship groups take an increasingly significant responsibility for a wide range of land use types including street and riparian corridors, vacant lots, public parks and gardens, green roofs, etc. Responsibilities include the delivery of public programs as well as daily maintenance and fundraising support. While most of the environmental stewardship organizations operate on staffs of zero or fewer than ten, with small cohorts of community volunteers, there is a significant difference in the total amount of program funding. Nearly all respondents agree that committed resources are scarce and insufficient with stewards relying upon and potentially competing for individual donations, local foundations, and municipal support. This makes it a challenge for the groups to grow beyond their current capacity and to develop long-term programs critical to resource management and education. It also fragments groups, making it difficult for planners and

  11. Modeling Urban Expansion and Agricultural Land Conversion in Henan Province, China: An Integration of Land Use and Socioeconomic Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Jiang

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available China has experienced rapid urban expansion and agricultural land loss, and the land conversion has accelerated in central provinces since the mid-1990s. The goal of this paper is to examine the relative importance of socioeconomic and policy factors on the urban conversion of agricultural land in Henan Province, China. Using panel econometric models, we examine how socioeconomic and policy factors affect agricultural land conversion at the county level across three time periods, 1995–2000, 2000–2005, and 2005–2010. The results show that both urban land rent and urban wages are essential factors that positively contribute to the conversion of agricultural land. It is also found that per capita GDP is correlated with more urban development and agricultural land loss. Consistent with expectations, agricultural financial support is negatively correlated with agricultural land conversion, suggesting a policy success. Finally, the decomposition analysis illustrates that urban wages are the most influential positive factor and agricultural financial support is the most influential negative factor affecting the urban conversion of agricultural land.

  12. Towards integrated solutions for water, energy, and land using an integrated nexus modeling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wada, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Humanity has already reached or even exceeded the Earth's carrying capacity. Growing needs for food, energy and water will only exacerbate existing challenges over the next decades. Consequently, the acceptance of "business as usual" is eroding and we are being challenged to adopt new, more integrated, and more inclusive development pathways that avoid dangerous interference with the local environment and global planetary boundaries. This challenge is embodied in the United Nation's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which endeavor to set a global agenda for moving towards more sustainable development strategies. To improve and sustain human welfare, it is critical that access to modern, reliable, and affordable water, energy, and food is expanded and maintained. The Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land (IS-WEL) project has been launched by IIASA, together with the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). This project focuses on the water-energy-land nexus in the context of other major global challenges such as urbanization, environmental degradation, and equitable and sustainable futures. It develops a consistent framework for looking at the water-energy-land nexus and identify strategies for achieving the needed transformational outcomes through an advanced assessment framework. A multi-scalar approach are being developed that aims to combine global and regional integrated assessment tools with local stakeholder knowledge in order to identify robust solutions to energy, water, food, and ecosystem security in selected regions of the world. These are regions facing multiple energy, water and land use challenges and rapid demographic and economic changes, and are hardest hit by increasing climate variability and change. This project combines the global integrated assessment model (MESSAGE) with the global land (GLOBIOM) and water (Community Water Model) model respectively, and the integrated

  13. Effect of mesohabitats on responses of invertebrate community structure in streams under different land uses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Marcos Vinícius Dias; Rosa, Beatriz F J V; Alves, Roberto G

    2015-11-01

    Riparian vegetation is one of the most important abiotic components determining the water flow pattern in lotic ecosystems, influencing the composition, richness, and diversity of invertebrates. We have identified whether differences in the structure of the assemblages of invertebrates between riffles and pools may influence the responses of fauna to the effects of land use. In addition, we investigated which fauna metrics are responsible for the differentiation between riffles and pools in streams subject to different land uses. During the dry season of 2012, the main substrates of riffles and pools were sampled (Surber collector) from nine streams within forest, pasture, and urban areas. Principal component analysis (PCA) and Permanova showed differences in the set of environmental variables between streams and mesohabitats. The first PCA axis distinguished the forest and pasture streams from the urban area streams and was related to variables indicative of nutrient enrichment and land use, while the second axis was formed by velocity flow and by the quantities of ultrafine and coarse sand, which distinguished the riffles and pools of the streams. The faunal composition distinguished the streams in pasture and forest areas from the urban streams. Riffles and pools were not concordant in the representation of the invertebrate fauna, indicating the importance of sampling both mesohabitats in the types of streams investigated. The richness, taxonomic composition, and relative abundance of families of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera showed robust responses in riffles to the effects of environmental changes, while in pools, only the richness showed a significant response. It was possibly concluded that riffles were more sensitive in detecting the effects of land use. The information from this study help to understand how the community of invertebrates and the types of habitats in streams may be affected by anthropogenic impacts.

  14. Effect of land model ensemble versus coupled model ensemble on the simulation of precipitation climatology and variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Jiangfeng; Dirmeyer, Paul A.; Yang, Zong-Liang; Chen, Haishan

    2017-10-01

    Through a series of model simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to three different land surface models, this study investigates the impacts of land model ensembles and coupled model ensemble on precipitation simulation. It is found that coupling an ensemble of land models to an atmospheric model has a very minor impact on the improvement of precipitation climatology and variability, but a simple ensemble average of the precipitation from three individually coupled land-atmosphere models produces better results, especially for precipitation variability. The generally weak impact of land processes on precipitation should be the main reason that the land model ensembles do not improve precipitation simulation. However, if there are big biases in the land surface model or land surface data set, correcting them could improve the simulated climate, especially for well-constrained regional climate simulations.

  15. Soil Structure - A Neglected Component of Land-Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fatichi, S.; Or, D.; Walko, R. L.; Vereecken, H.; Kollet, S. J.; Young, M.; Ghezzehei, T. A.; Hengl, T.; Agam, N.; Avissar, R.

    2017-12-01

    Soil structure is largely absent in most standard sampling and measurements and in the subsequent parameterization of soil hydraulic properties deduced from soil maps and used in Earth System Models. The apparent omission propagates into the pedotransfer functions that deduce parameters of soil hydraulic properties primarily from soil textural information. Such simple parameterization is an essential ingredient in the practical application of any land surface model. Despite the critical role of soil structure (biopores formed by decaying roots, aggregates, etc.) in defining soil hydraulic functions, only a few studies have attempted to incorporate soil structure into models. They mostly looked at the effects on preferential flow and solute transport pathways at the soil profile scale; yet, the role of soil structure in mediating large-scale fluxes remains understudied. Here, we focus on rectifying this gap and demonstrating potential impacts on surface and subsurface fluxes and system wide eco-hydrologic responses. The study proposes a systematic way for correcting the soil water retention and hydraulic conductivity functions—accounting for soil-structure—with major implications for near saturated hydraulic conductivity. Modification to the basic soil hydraulic parameterization is assumed as a function of biological activity summarized by Gross Primary Production. A land-surface model with dynamic vegetation is used to carry out numerical simulations with and without the role of soil-structure for 20 locations characterized by different climates and biomes across the globe. Including soil structure affects considerably the partition between infiltration and runoff and consequently leakage at the base of the soil profile (recharge). In several locations characterized by wet climates, a few hundreds of mm per year of surface runoff become deep-recharge accounting for soil-structure. Changes in energy fluxes, total evapotranspiration and vegetation productivity

  16. Improving Frozen Precipitation Density Estimation in Land Surface Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sparrow, K.; Fall, G. M.

    2017-12-01

    The Office of Water Prediction (OWP) produces high-value water supply and flood risk planning information through the use of operational land surface modeling. Improvements in diagnosing frozen precipitation density will benefit the NWS's meteorological and hydrological services by refining estimates of a significant and vital input into land surface models. A current common practice for handling the density of snow accumulation in a land surface model is to use a standard 10:1 snow-to-liquid-equivalent ratio (SLR). Our research findings suggest the possibility of a more skillful approach for assessing the spatial variability of precipitation density. We developed a 30-year SLR climatology for the coterminous US from version 3.22 of the Daily Global Historical Climatology Network - Daily (GHCN-D) dataset. Our methods followed the approach described by Baxter (2005) to estimate mean climatological SLR values at GHCN-D sites in the US, Canada, and Mexico for the years 1986-2015. In addition to the Baxter criteria, the following refinements were made: tests were performed to eliminate SLR outliers and frequent reports of SLR = 10, a linear SLR vs. elevation trend was fitted to station SLR mean values to remove the elevation trend from the data, and detrended SLR residuals were interpolated using ordinary kriging with a spherical semivariogram model. The elevation values of each station were based on the GMTED 2010 digital elevation model and the elevation trend in the data was established via linear least squares approximation. The ordinary kriging procedure was used to interpolate the data into gridded climatological SLR estimates for each calendar month at a 0.125 degree resolution. To assess the skill of this climatology, we compared estimates from our SLR climatology with observations from the GHCN-D dataset to consider the potential use of this climatology as a first guess of frozen precipitation density in an operational land surface model. The difference in

  17. Research on the decision-making model of land-use spatial optimization

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jianhua; Yu, Yan; Liu, Yanfang; Liang, Fei; Cai, Yuqiu

    2009-10-01

    Using the optimization result of landscape pattern and land use structure optimization as constraints of CA simulation results, a decision-making model of land use spatial optimization is established coupled the landscape pattern model with cellular automata to realize the land use quantitative and spatial optimization simultaneously. And Huangpi district is taken as a case study to verify the rationality of the model.

  18. Population Density Modeling for Diverse Land Use Classes: Creating a National Dasymetric Worker Population Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trombley, N.; Weber, E.; Moehl, J.

    2017-12-01

    Many studies invoke dasymetric mapping to make more accurate depictions of population distribution by spatially restricting populations to inhabited/inhabitable portions of observational units (e.g., census blocks) and/or by varying population density among different land classes. LandScan USA uses this approach by restricting particular population components (such as residents or workers) to building area detected from remotely sensed imagery, but also goes a step further by classifying each cell of building area in accordance with ancillary land use information from national parcel data (CoreLogic, Inc.'s ParcelPoint database). Modeling population density according to land use is critical. For instance, office buildings would have a higher density of workers than warehouses even though the latter would likely have more cells of detection. This paper presents a modeling approach by which different land uses are assigned different densities to more accurately distribute populations within them. For parts of the country where the parcel data is insufficient, an alternate methodology is developed that uses National Land Cover Database (NLCD) data to define the land use type of building detection. Furthermore, LiDAR data is incorporated for many of the largest cities across the US, allowing the independent variables to be updated from two-dimensional building detection area to total building floor space. In the end, four different regression models are created to explain the effect of different land uses on worker distribution: A two-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A three-dimensional model using land use types from the parcel data A two-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data, and A three-dimensional model using land use types from the NLCD data. By and large, the resultant coefficients followed intuition, but importantly allow the relationships between different land uses to be quantified. For instance, in the model

  19. MODELLING THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND LANDSCAPE PATTERNS OF LAND USE LAND COVER CLASSIFICATION USING MULTI LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Bernales

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The threat of the ailments related to urbanization like heat stress is very prevalent. There are a lot of things that can be done to lessen the effect of urbanization to the surface temperature of the area like using green roofs or planting trees in the area. So land use really matters in both increasing and decreasing surface temperature. It is known that there is a relationship between land use land cover (LULC and land surface temperature (LST. Quantifying this relationship in terms of a mathematical model is very important so as to provide a way to predict LST based on the LULC alone. This study aims to examine the relationship between LST and LULC as well as to create a model that can predict LST using class-level spatial metrics from LULC. LST was derived from a Landsat 8 image and LULC classification was derived from LiDAR and Orthophoto datasets. Class-level spatial metrics were created in FRAGSTATS with the LULC and LST as inputs and these metrics were analysed using a statistical framework. Multi linear regression was done to create models that would predict LST for each class and it was found that the spatial metric “Effective mesh size” was a top predictor for LST in 6 out of 7 classes. The model created can still be refined by adding a temporal aspect by analysing the LST of another farming period (for rural areas and looking for common predictors between LSTs of these two different farming periods.

  20. An integrated multi-criteria scenario evaluation web tool for participatory land-use planning in urbanized areas: The Ecosystem Portfolio Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labiosa, Bill; Forney, William M.; Hearn,, Paul P.; Hogan, Dianna M.; Strong, David R.; Swain, Eric D.; Esnard, Ann-Margaret; Mitsova-Boneva, D.; Bernknopf, R.; Pearlstine, Leonard; Gladwin, Hugh

    2013-01-01

    Land-use land-cover change is one of the most important and direct drivers of changes in ecosystem functions and services. Given the complexity of the decision-making, there is a need for Internet-based decision support systems with scenario evaluation capabilities to help planners, resource managers and communities visualize, compare and consider trade-offs among the many values at stake in land use planning. This article presents details on an Ecosystem Portfolio Model (EPM) prototype that integrates ecological, socio-economic information and associated values of relevance to decision-makers and stakeholders. The EPM uses a multi-criteria scenario evaluation framework, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analysis and spatially-explicit land-use/land-cover change-sensitive models to characterize changes in important land-cover related ecosystem values related to ecosystem services and functions, land parcel prices, and community quality-of-life (QoL) metrics. Parameters in the underlying models can be modified through the interface, allowing users in a facilitated group setting to explore simultaneously issues of scientific uncertainty and divergence in the preferences of stakeholders. One application of the South Florida EPM prototype reported in this article shows the modeled changes (which are significant) in aggregate ecological value, landscape patterns and fragmentation, biodiversity potential and ecological restoration potential for current land uses compared to the 2050 land-use scenario. Ongoing refinements to EPM, and future work especially in regard to modifiable sea level rise scenarios are also discussed.

  1. Water in the Native World: Hydrological Impacts of Future Land Use and Climate Change in the Lumbee River Watershed and Implications for Ecosystems and Indigenous Communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emanuel, R. E.; Singh, N.; Painter, J.; Sikes, J. A.; Vose, J. M.; Wear, D. N.; Martin, K. L.

    2016-12-01

    In the coming decades, the southeastern US will likely experience substantial shifts in land use due to population growth, food and energy production, and other factors. In the same period, climate change is expected to alter ecohydrological processes in terrestrial landscapes while contributing to further land use change. Increasingly, these changes will challenge the ability of the region's freshwater resources to support natural ecosystems and human communities. The impacts of land use and climate change on water are of particular concern to rural indigenous communities of the southeastern US. For these communities, the cultural significance of land and water, together with historical legacies of discrimination, marginalization and other factors, combine to create unique vulnerabilities to environmental change. Assessments of land use and climate impacts on water resources of the southeastern US tend to focus on quantity and quality concerns of large cities or on waters of special economic concern (e.g. estuaries and coastal fisheries). The potential impacts of land use and climate change on American Indian communities are largely overlooked or unknown. With this in mind, we used a semi-distributed hydrological model (SWAT) to assess impacts of climate and land use change on streamflow regimes in the Lumbee (aka Lumber) River, North Carolina (USA). This coastal plain blackwater river is a significant natural and cultural resource for indigenous people of the Lumbee Tribe, and its watershed, containing extensive riparian wetlands and agriculture-dominated uplands, is home to more than 30,000 tribal citizens. We ran SWAT with statistically downscaled output from four general circulation models (GCMs) for the mid-21st century (RCP8.5 scenario), together with a mid-century land use scenario from the US Forest Service's Southern Forest Futures Project. We used these inputs to simulate daily streamflows on the Lumbee River for the 2040-2060 period with uncertainty

  2. [Intervention of Schizophrenia From the Community Model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taborda Zapata, Eliana María; Montoya González, Laura Elisa; Gómez Sierra, Natalia María; Arteaga Morales, Laura María; Correa Rico, Oscar Andrés

    2016-01-01

    Schizophrenia is a complex disease for which pharmacological management is an insufficient therapeutic measure to ensure adaptation to the community and restoring the quality of life of the patient, with a multidimensional management and community interventions being necessary. Case report. This case report illustrates a multidisciplinary treatment response, based on a community care model for mental health from Envigado, Colombia. The management of schizophrenia requires multimodal interventions that include community screening, psychoeducation of individuals, their families and society, addressing different areas of operation that allow adaptation of the subject to his social environment. A integrated intervention that can be provided on a Community scale, with the implementation of policies that allow it to be applied. Copyright © 2015 Asociación Colombiana de Psiquiatría. Publicado por Elsevier España. All rights reserved.

  3. Using Backcast Land-Use Change and Groundwater Travel-Time Models to Generate Land-Use Legacy Maps for Watershed Management

    OpenAIRE

    Bryan Pijanowski; Deepak K. Ray; Anthony D. Kendall; Jonah M. Duckles; David W. Hyndman

    2007-01-01

    We couple two spatial-temporal models, a backcast land-use change model and a groundwater flow model, to develop what we call "land-use legacy maps." We quantify how a land-use legacy map, created from maps of past land use and groundwater travel times, differs from a current land-use map. We show how these map differences can affect land-use planning and watershed management decisions at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Our approach demonstrates that land-use legacy maps provide a m...

  4. Launch and Landing Effects Ground Operations (LLEGO) Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    LLEGO is a model for understanding recurring launch and landing operations costs at Kennedy Space Center for human space flight. Launch and landing operations are often referred to as ground processing, or ground operations. Currently, this function is specific to the ground operations for the Space Shuttle Space Transportation System within the Space Shuttle Program. The Constellation system to follow the Space Shuttle consists of the crewed Orion spacecraft atop an Ares I launch vehicle and the uncrewed Ares V cargo launch vehicle. The Constellation flight and ground systems build upon many elements of the existing Shuttle flight and ground hardware, as well as upon existing organizations and processes. In turn, the LLEGO model builds upon past ground operations research, modeling, data, and experience in estimating for future programs. Rather than to simply provide estimates, the LLEGO model s main purpose is to improve expenses by relating complex relationships among functions (ground operations contractor, subcontractors, civil service technical, center management, operations, etc.) to tangible drivers. Drivers include flight system complexity and reliability, as well as operations and supply chain management processes and technology. Together these factors define the operability and potential improvements for any future system, from the most direct to the least direct expenses.

  5. Understanding the Shape of the Land and Watersheds Using Simple Models in the Classroom

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardiner, L.; Johnson, R.; Russell, R.; Bergman, J.; Genyuk, J.; Lagrave, M.

    2006-12-01

    Middle school students can gain essential understandings of the Earth and its processes in the classroom by making and manipulating simple models. While no substitute for field experiences, simple models made of easily-obtained materials can foster student understanding of natural environments. Through this collection of hands-on activities, students build and manipulate simple models that demonstrate (1) tectonic processes that shape the land, (2) the shape of the land surface, (3) how the shape of the land influences the distribution of waterways and watersheds, and (4) how the human communities within a watershed are interconnected through use of surface water. The classroom activities described in this presentation are available on Windows to the Universe (www.windows.ucar.edu), a project of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research Office of Education and Outreach. Windows to the Universe, a long-standing Web resource supporting Earth and space science education, provides users with content about the Earth and space sciences at three levels (beginner, intermediate, and advanced) in English and Spanish. Approximately 80 hands-on classroom activities appropriate for K-12 classrooms are available within the teacher resources section of the Windows to the Universe.

  6. Land Cover Change Monitoring of Typical Functional Communities of Sichuan Province Based on ZY-3 Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, G. M.; Li, S.; Ying, G. W.; Wu, X. P.

    2018-04-01

    According to the function, land space types are divided into key development areas, restricted development areas and forbidden development areas in Sichuan Province. This paper monitors and analyses the changes of land cover in different typical functional areas from 2010 to 2017, which based on ZY-3 high-score images data and combined with statistical yearbook and thematic data of Sichuan Province. The results show that: The land cover types of typical key development zones are mainly composed of cultivated land, forest land, garden land, and housing construction land, which accounts for the total area of land cover 87 %. The land cover types of typical restricted development zone mainly consists of forest land and grassland, which occupy 97.71 % of the total area of the surface coverage. The land cover types of the typical prohibition development zone mainly consist of forest land, grassland, desert and bared earth, which accounts for the total area of land cover 99.31 %.

  7. E-Model for Online Learning Communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogo, Ellen J; Portillo, Karen M

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the students' perspectives on the phenomenon of online learning communities while enrolled in a graduate dental hygiene program. A qualitative case study method was designed to investigate the learners' experiences with communities in an online environment. A cross-sectional purposive sampling method was used. Interviews were the data collection method. As the original data were being analyzed, the researchers noted a pattern evolved indicating the phenomenon developed in stages. The data were re-analyzed and validated by 2 member checks. The participants' experiences revealed an e-model consisting of 3 stages of formal learning community development as core courses in the curriculum were completed and 1 stage related to transmuting the community to an informal entity as students experienced the independent coursework in the program. The development of the formal learning communities followed 3 stages: Building a Foundation for the Learning Community, Building a Supportive Network within the Learning Community and Investing in the Community to Enhance Learning. The last stage, Transforming the Learning Community, signaled a transition to an informal network of learners. The e-model was represented by 3 key elements: metamorphosis of relationships, metamorphosis through the affective domain and metamorphosis through the cognitive domain, with the most influential element being the affective development. The e-model describes a 4 stage process through which learners experience a metamorphosis in their affective, relationship and cognitive development. Synergistic learning was possible based on the interaction between synergistic relationships and affective actions. Copyright © 2015 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

  8. Bioenergy Ecosystem Land-Use Modelling and Field Flux Trial

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Niall; Bottoms, Emily; Donnison, Iain; Dondini, Marta; Farrar, Kerrie; Finch, Jon; Harris, Zoe; Ineson, Phil; Keane, Ben; Massey, Alice; McCalmont, Jon; Morison, James; Perks, Mike; Pogson, Mark; Rowe, Rebecca; Smith, Pete; Sohi, Saran; Tallis, Mat; Taylor, Gail; Yamulki, Sirwan

    2013-04-01

    Climate change impacts resulting from fossil fuel combustion and concerns about the diversity of energy supply are driving interest to find low-carbon energy alternatives. As a result bioenergy is receiving widespread scientific, political and media attention for its potential role in both supplying energy and mitigating greenhouse (GHG) emissions. It is estimated that the bioenergy contribution to EU 2020 renewable energy targets could require up to 17-21 million hectares of additional land in Europe (Don et al., 2012). There are increasing concerns that some transitions into bioenergy may not be as sustainable as first thought when GHG emissions from the crop growth and management cycle are factored into any GHG life cycle assessment (LCA). Bioenergy is complex and encapsulates a wide range of crops, varying from food crop based biofuels to dedicated second generation perennial energy crops and forestry products. The decision on the choice of crop for energy production significantly influences the GHG mitigation potential. It is recognised that GHG savings or losses are in part a function of the original land-use that has undergone change and the management intensity for the energy crop. There is therefore an urgent need to better quantify both crop and site-specific effects associated with the production of conventional and dedicated energy crops on the GHG balance. Currently, there is scarcity of GHG balance data with respect to second generation crops meaning that process based models and LCAs of GHG balances are weakly underpinned. Therefore, robust, models based on real data are urgently required. In the UK we have recently embarked on a detailed program of work to address this challenge by combining a large number of field studies with state-of-the-art process models. Through six detailed experiments, we are calculating the annual GHG balances of land use transitions into energy crops across the UK. Further, we are quantifying the total soil carbon gain or

  9. Different Land Use Intensities in Grassland Ecosystems Drive Ecology of Microbial Communities Involved in Nitrogen Turnover in Soil

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, Annabel; Focks, Andreas; Radl, Viviane; Keil, Daniel; Welzl, Gerhard; Sch?ning, Ingo; Boch, Steffen; Marhan, Sven; Kandeler, Ellen; Schloter, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Understanding factors driving the ecology of N cycling microbial communities is of central importance for sustainable land use. In this study we report changes of abundance of denitrifiers, nitrifiers and nitrogen-fixing microorganisms (based on qPCR data for selected functional genes) in response to different land use intensity levels and the consequences for potential turnover rates. We investigated selected grassland sites being comparable with respect to soil type and climatic conditions,...

  10. Characterization of Emissions and Air Quality Modeling for Predicting the Impacts of Prescribed Burns at DoD Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    unlimited 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Objectives: Prescribed burning (PB) is an effective and economical land management tool for maintaining...situ emissions measurements. ?Daysmoke,? an empirical plume model designed specifically for PB, and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model...adaptive minus standard) in nitrate (left) and biogenic organic aerosol (right) when only transport and aerosol modules are turned on (i.e., no gas

  11. Predictive Modeling for NASA Entry, Descent and Landing Missions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Entry, Descent and Landing (EDL) Modeling and Simulation (MS) is an enabling capability for complex NASA entry missions such as MSL and Orion. MS is used in every mission phase to define mission concepts, select appropriate architectures, design EDL systems, quantify margin and risk, ensure correct system operation, and analyze data returned from the entry. In an environment where it is impossible to fully test EDL concepts on the ground prior to use, accurate MS capability is required to extrapolate ground test results to expected flight performance.

  12. Integrating global socio-economic influences into a regional land use change model for China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Xia; Gao, Qiong; Peng, Changhui; Cui, Xuefeng; Liu, Yinghui; Jiang, Li

    2014-03-01

    With rapid economic development and urbanization, land use in China has experienced huge changes in recent years; and this will probably continue in the future. Land use problems in China are urgent and need further study. Rapid land-use change and economic development make China an ideal region for integrated land use change studies, particularly the examination of multiple factors and global-regional interactions in the context of global economic integration. This paper presents an integrated modeling approach to examine the impact of global socio-economic processes on land use changes at a regional scale. We develop an integrated model system by coupling a simple global socio-economic model (GLOBFOOD) and regional spatial allocation model (CLUE). The model system is illustrated with an application to land use in China. For a given climate change, population growth, and various socio-economic situations, a global socio-economic model simulates the impact of global market and economy on land use, and quantifies changes of different land use types. The land use spatial distribution model decides the type of land use most appropriate in each spatial grid by employing a weighted suitability index, derived from expert knowledge about the ecosystem state and site conditions. A series of model simulations will be conducted and analyzed to demonstrate the ability of the integrated model to link global socioeconomic factors with regional land use changes in China. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of land use and landscapes in China.

  13. Flower resource and land management drives hoverfly communities and bee abundance in seminatural and agricultural grasslands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucas, Andrew; Bull, James C; de Vere, Natasha; Neyland, Penelope J; Forman, Dan W

    2017-10-01

    Pollination is a key ecosystem service, and appropriate management, particularly in agricultural systems, is essential to maintain a diversity of pollinator guilds. However, management recommendations frequently focus on maintaining plant communities, with the assumption that associated invertebrate populations will be sustained. We tested whether plant community, flower resources, and soil moisture would influence hoverfly (Syrphidae) abundance and species richness in floristically-rich seminatural and floristically impoverished agricultural grassland communities in Wales (U.K.) and compared these to two Hymenoptera genera, Bombus, and Lasioglossum . Interactions between environmental variables were tested using generalized linear modeling, and hoverfly community composition examined using canonical correspondence analysis. There was no difference in hoverfly abundance, species richness, or bee abundance, between grassland types. There was a positive association between hoverfly abundance, species richness, and flower abundance in unimproved grasslands. However, this was not evident in agriculturally improved grassland, possibly reflecting intrinsically low flower resource in these habitats, or the presence of plant species with low or relatively inaccessible nectar resources. There was no association between soil moisture content and hoverfly abundance or species richness. Hoverfly community composition was influenced by agricultural improvement and the amount of flower resource. Hoverfly species with semiaquatic larvae were associated with both seminatural and agricultural wet grasslands, possibly because of localized larval habitat. Despite the absence of differences in hoverfly abundance and species richness, distinct hoverfly communities are associated with marshy grasslands, agriculturally improved marshy grasslands, and unimproved dry grasslands, but not with improved dry grasslands. Grassland plant community cannot be used as a proxy for pollinator

  14. Mapping the global depth to bedrock for land surface modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shangguan, W.; Hengl, T.; Yuan, H.; Dai, Y. J.; Zhang, S.

    2017-12-01

    Depth to bedrock serves as the lower boundary of land surface models, which controls hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. This paper presents a framework for global estimation of Depth to bedrock (DTB). Observations were extracted from a global compilation of soil profile data (ca. 130,000 locations) and borehole data (ca. 1.6 million locations). Additional pseudo-observations generated by expert knowledge were added to fill in large sampling gaps. The model training points were then overlaid on a stack of 155 covariates including DEM-based hydrological and morphological derivatives, lithologic units, MODIS surfacee reflectance bands and vegetation indices derived from the MODIS land products. Global spatial prediction models were developed using random forests and Gradient Boosting Tree algorithms. The final predictions were generated at the spatial resolution of 250m as an ensemble prediction of the two independently fitted models. The 10-fold cross-validation shows that the models explain 59% for absolute DTB and 34% for censored DTB (depths deep than 200 cm are predicted as 200 cm). The model for occurrence of R horizon (bedrock) within 200 cm does a good job. Visual comparisons of predictions in the study areas where more detailed maps of depth to bedrock exist show that there is a general match with spatial patterns from similar local studies. Limitation of the data set and extrapolation in data spare areas should not be ignored in applications. To improve accuracy of spatial prediction, more borehole drilling logs will need to be added to supplement the existing training points in under-represented areas.

  15. Function Model for Community Health Service Information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Peng; Pan, Feng; Liu, Danhong; Xu, Yongyong

    In order to construct a function model of community health service (CHS) information for development of CHS information management system, Integration Definition for Function Modeling (IDEF0), an IEEE standard which is extended from Structured Analysis and Design(SADT) and now is a widely used function modeling method, was used to classifying its information from top to bottom. The contents of every level of the model were described and coded. Then function model for CHS information, which includes 4 super-classes, 15 classes and 28 sub-classed of business function, 43 business processes and 168 business activities, was established. This model can facilitate information management system development and workflow refinement.

  16. Developing Land Use Land Cover Maps for the Lower Mekong Basin to Aid SWAT Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, J.; Bolten, J. D.; Srinivasan, R.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation discusses research to develop Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Funded by a NASA ROSES Disasters grant, the main objective was to produce updated LULC maps to aid the Mekong River Commission's (MRC's) Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. In producing needed LULC maps, temporally processed MODIS monthly NDVI data for 2010 were used as the primary data source for classifying regionally prominent forest and agricultural types. The MODIS NDVI data was derived from processing MOD09 and MYD09 8-day reflectance data with the Time Series Product Tool, a custom software package. Circa 2010 Landsat multispectral data from the dry season were processed into top of atmosphere reflectance mosaics and then classified to derive certain locally common LULC types, such as urban areas and industrial forest plantations. Unsupervised ISODATA clustering was used to derive most LULC classifications. GIS techniques were used to merge MODIS and Landsat classifications into final LULC maps for Sub-Basins (SBs) 1-8 of the LMB. The final LULC maps were produced at 250-meter resolution and delivered to the MRC for use in SWAT modeling for the LMB. A map accuracy assessment was performed for the SB 7 LULC map with 14 classes. This assessment was performed by comparing random locations for sampled LULC types to geospatial reference data such as Landsat RGBs, MODIS NDVI phenologic profiles, high resolution satellite data from Google Map/Earth, and other reference data from the MRC (e.g., crop calendars). LULC accuracy assessment results for SB 7 indicated an overall agreement to reference data of 81% at full scheme specificity. However, by grouping 3 deciduous forest classes into 1 class, the overall agreement improved to 87%. The project enabled updated LULC maps, plus more specific rice types were classified compared to the previous LULC maps. The LULC maps from this project should improve the use of SWAT for modeling

  17. EXPERT MODEL OF LAND SUITABILITY ASSESSMENT FOR CROPS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boris Đurđević

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A total of 17404 soil samples (2003rd-2009th year were analysed in the eastern Croatia. The largest number of soil samples belongs to the Osijek-Baranya county, which together with both Eastern sugar beet Factories (Osijek and Županja, conduct the soil fertility control (~4200 samples/yr.. Computer model suitability assessment for crops, supported by GIS, proved to be fast, efficient enough reliable in terms of the number of analyzed soil samples. It allows the visualization of the agricultural area and prediction of its production properties for the purposes of analysis, planning and rationalization of agricultural production. With more precise data about the soil (soil, climate and reliable Digital Soil Map of Croatia, the model could be an acceptable, not only to evaluate the suitability for growing different crops but also their need for fertilizer, necessary machinery, repairs (liming, and other measures of organic matter input. The abovementioned aims to eliminate or reduce effects of limiting factors in primary agricultural production. Assessment of the relative benefits of soil presented by computer model for the crops production and geostatistical method kriging in the Osijek-Baranya county showed: 1 Average soil suitability being 60.06 percent. 2 Kriging predicted that 51751 ha (17.16% are of limited resources (N1 for growing crops whereas a 86142 ha (28.57% of land is limited suitably (S3, b 132789 ha (44.04% are moderately suitable (S2 and c 30772 ha (10.28% are of excellent fertility (S1. A large number of eastern Croatian land data showed that the computer-geostatistical model for determination of soil benefits for growing crops was automated, fast and simple to use and suitable for the implementation of GIS and automatically downloading the necessary benefit indicators from the input base (land, analytical and climate as well as data from the digital soil maps able to: a visualize the suitability for soil tillage, b predict the

  18. Improved Hydrology over Peatlands in a Global Land Modeling System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechtold, M.; Delannoy, G.; Reichle, R.; Koster, R.; Mahanama, S.; Roose, Dirk

    2018-01-01

    Peatlands of the Northern Hemisphere represent an important carbon pool that mainly accumulated since the last ice age under permanently wet conditions in specific geological and climatic settings. The carbon balance of peatlands is closely coupled to water table dynamics. Consequently, the future carbon balance over peatlands is strongly dependent on how hydrology in peatlands will react to changing boundary conditions, e.g. due to climate change or regional water level drawdown of connected aquifers or streams. Global land surface modeling over organic-rich regions can provide valuable global-scale insights on where and how peatlands are in transition due to changing boundary conditions. However, the current global land surface models are not able to reproduce typical hydrological dynamics in peatlands well. We implemented specific structural and parametric changes to account for key hydrological characteristics of peatlands into NASA's GEOS-5 Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM, Koster et al. 2000). The main modifications pertain to the modeling of partial inundation, and the definition of peatland-specific runoff and evapotranspiration schemes. We ran a set of simulations on a high performance cluster using different CLSM configurations and validated the results with a newly compiled global in-situ dataset of water table depths in peatlands. The results demonstrate that an update of soil hydraulic properties for peat soils alone does not improve the performance of CLSM over peatlands. However, structural model changes for peatlands are able to improve the skill metrics for water table depth. The validation results for the water table depth indicate a reduction of the bias from 2.5 to 0.2 m, and an improvement of the temporal correlation coefficient from 0.5 to 0.65, and from 0.4 to 0.55 for the anomalies. Our validation data set includes both bogs (rain-fed) and fens (ground and/or surface water influence) and reveals that the metrics improved less for fens. In

  19. ENHANCED MODELING OF REMOTELY SENSED ANNUAL LAND SURFACE TEMPERATURE CYCLE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Zou

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Satellite thermal remote sensing provides access to acquire large-scale Land surface temperature (LST data, but also generates missing and abnormal values resulting from non-clear-sky conditions. Given this limitation, Annual Temperature Cycle (ATC model was employed to reconstruct the continuous daily LST data over a year. The original model ATCO used harmonic functions, but the dramatic changes of the real LST caused by the weather changes remained unclear due to the smooth sine curve. Using Aqua/MODIS LST products, NDVI and meteorological data, we proposed enhanced model ATCE based on ATCO to describe the fluctuation and compared their performances for the Yangtze River Delta region of China. The results demonstrated that, the overall root mean square errors (RMSEs of the ATCE was lower than ATCO, and the improved accuracy of daytime was better than that of night, with the errors decreased by 0.64 K and 0.36 K, respectively. The improvements of accuracies varied with different land cover types: the forest, grassland and built-up areas improved larger than water. And the spatial heterogeneity was observed for performance of ATC model: the RMSEs of built-up area, forest and grassland were around 3.0 K in the daytime, while the water attained 2.27 K; at night, the accuracies of all types significantly increased to similar RMSEs level about 2 K. By comparing the differences between LSTs simulated by two models in different seasons, it was found that the differences were smaller in the spring and autumn, while larger in the summer and winter.

  20. Shallow to Deep Convection Transition over a Heterogeneous Land Surface Using the Land Model Coupled Large-Eddy Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J.; Zhang, Y.; Klein, S. A.

    2017-12-01

    The triggering of the land breeze, and hence the development of deep convection over heterogeneous land should be understood as a consequence of the complex processes involving various factors from land surface and atmosphere simultaneously. That is a sub-grid scale process that many large-scale models have difficulty incorporating it into the parameterization scheme partly due to lack of our understanding. Thus, it is imperative that we approach the problem using a high-resolution modeling framework. In this study, we use SAM-SLM (Lee and Khairoutdinov, 2015), a large-eddy simulation model coupled to a land model, to explore the cloud effect such as cold pool, the cloud shading and the soil moisture memory on the land breeze structure and the further development of cloud and precipitation over a heterogeneous land surface. The atmospheric large scale forcing and the initial sounding are taken from the new composite case study of the fair-weather, non-precipitating shallow cumuli at ARM SGP (Zhang et al., 2017). We model the land surface as a chess board pattern with alternating leaf area index (LAI). The patch contrast of the LAI is adjusted to encompass the weak to strong heterogeneity amplitude. The surface sensible- and latent heat fluxes are computed according to the given LAI representing the differential surface heating over a heterogeneous land surface. Separate from the surface forcing imposed from the originally modeled surface, the cases that transition into the moist convection can induce another layer of the surface heterogeneity from the 1) radiation shading by clouds, 2) adjusted soil moisture pattern by the rain, 3) spreading cold pool. First, we assess and quantifies the individual cloud effect on the land breeze and the moist convection under the weak wind to simplify the feedback processes. And then, the same set of experiments is repeated under sheared background wind with low level jet, a typical summer time wind pattern at ARM SGP site, to

  1. Land use and land cover change based on historical space-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Qiong; Zhang, Chi; Liu, Min; Zhang, Yongjing

    2016-09-01

    Land use and cover change is a leading edge topic in the current research field of global environmental changes and case study of typical areas is an important approach understanding global environmental changes. Taking the Qiantang River (Zhejiang, China) as an example, this study explores automatic classification of land use using remote sensing technology and analyzes historical space-time change by remote sensing monitoring. This study combines spectral angle mapping (SAM) with multi-source information and creates a convenient and efficient high-precision land use computer automatic classification method which meets the application requirements and is suitable for complex landform of the studied area. This work analyzes the histological space-time characteristics of land use and cover change in the Qiantang River basin in 2001, 2007 and 2014, in order to (i) verify the feasibility of studying land use change with remote sensing technology, (ii) accurately understand the change of land use and cover as well as historical space-time evolution trend, (iii) provide a realistic basis for the sustainable development of the Qiantang River basin and (iv) provide a strong information support and new research method for optimizing the Qiantang River land use structure and achieving optimal allocation of land resources and scientific management.

  2. Evaluating Land-Atmosphere Moisture Feedbacks in Earth System Models With Spaceborne Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levine, P. A.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, D. M.; Swenson, S. C.

    2016-12-01

    We have developed a set of metrics for measuring the feedback loop between the land surface moisture state and the atmosphere globally on an interannual time scale. These metrics consider both the forcing of terrestrial water storage (TWS) on subsequent atmospheric conditions as well as the response of TWS to antecedent atmospheric conditions. We designed our metrics to take advantage of more than one decade's worth of satellite observations of TWS from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with atmospheric variables from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and Clouds and the Earths Radiant Energy System (CERES). Metrics derived from spaceborne observations were used to evaluate the strength of the feedback loop in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS) and in several models that contributed simulations to Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). We found that both forcing and response limbs of the feedback loop were generally stronger in tropical and temperate regions in CMIP5 models and even more so in LENS compared to satellite observations. Our analysis suggests that models may overestimate the strength of the feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere, which is consistent with previous studies conducted across different spatial and temporal scales.

  3. Land-Use and Land-Management Change: Relationships with Earthworm and Fungi Communities and Soil Structural Properties

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spurgeon, D.J.; Keith, A.M.; Schmidt, O.; Lammertsma, D.R.; Faber, J.H.

    2013-01-01

    Background Change in land use and management can impact massively on soil ecosystems. Ecosystem engineers and other functional biodiversity in soils can be influenced directly by such change and this in turn can affect key soil functions. Here, we employ meta-analysis to provide a quantitative

  4. A Local Land Use Competition Cellular Automata Model and Its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Yang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Cellular automaton (CA is an important method in land use and cover change studies, however, the majority of research focuses on the discovery of macroscopic factors affecting LUCC, which results in ignoring the local effects within the neighborhoods. This paper introduces a Local Land Use Competition Cellular Automata (LLUC-CA model, based on local land use competition, land suitability evaluation, demand analysis of the different land use types, and multi-target land use competition allocation algorithm to simulate land use change at a micro level. The model is applied to simulate land use changes at Jinshitan National Tourist Holiday Resort from 1988 to 2012. The results show that the simulation accuracies were 64.46%, 77.21%, 85.30% and 99.14% for the agricultural land, construction land, forestland and water, respectively. In addition, comparing the simulation results of the LLUC-CA and CA-Markov model with the real land use data, their overall spatial accuracies were found to be 88.74% and 86.82%, respectively. In conclusion, the results from this study indicated that the model was an acceptable method for the simulation of large-scale land use changes, and the approach used here is applicable to analyzing the land use change driven forces and assist in decision-making.

  5. Enhancing Noah Land Surface Model Prediction Skill over Indian Subcontinent by Assimilating SMOPS Blended Soil Moisture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Akhilesh S. Nair

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available In the present study, soil moisture assimilation is conducted over the Indian subcontinent, using the Noah Land Surface Model (LSM and the Soil Moisture Operational Products System (SMOPS observations by utilizing the Ensemble Kalman Filter. The study is conducted in two stages involving assimilation of soil moisture and simulation of brightness temperature (Tb using radiative transfer scheme. The results of data assimilation in the form of simulated Surface Soil Moisture (SSM maps are evaluated for the Indian summer monsoonal months of June, July, August, September (JJAS using the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM AMSR-E soil moisture as reference. Results of comparative analysis using the Global land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS SSM is also discussed over India. Data assimilation using SMOPS soil moisture shows improved prediction over the Indian subcontinent, with an average correlation of 0.96 and average root mean square difference (RMSD of 0.0303 m3/m3. The results are promising in comparison with the GLDAS SSM, which has an average correlation of 0.93 and average RMSD of 0.0481 m3/m3. In the second stage of the study, the assimilated soil moisture is used to simulate X-band brightness temperature (Tb at an incidence angle of 55° using the Community Microwave Emission Model (CMEM Radiative transfer Model (RTM. This is aimed to study the sensitivity of the parameterization scheme on Tb simulation over the Indian subcontinent. The result of Tb simulation shows that the CMEM parameterization scheme strongly influences the simulated top of atmosphere (TOA brightness temperature. Furthermore, the Tb simulations from Wang dielectric model and Kirdyashev vegetation model shows better similarity with the actual AMSR-E Tb over the study region.

  6. Physics-based Entry, Descent and Landing Risk Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, Ken; Huynh, Loc C.; Manning, Ted

    2014-01-01

    A physics-based risk model was developed to assess the risk associated with thermal protection system failures during the entry, descent and landing phase of a manned spacecraft mission. In the model, entry trajectories were computed using a three-degree-of-freedom trajectory tool, the aerothermodynamic heating environment was computed using an engineering-level computational tool and the thermal response of the TPS material was modeled using a one-dimensional thermal response tool. The model was capable of modeling the effect of micrometeoroid and orbital debris impact damage on the TPS thermal response. A Monte Carlo analysis was used to determine the effects of uncertainties in the vehicle state at Entry Interface, aerothermodynamic heating and material properties on the performance of the TPS design. The failure criterion was set as a temperature limit at the bondline between the TPS and the underlying structure. Both direct computation and response surface approaches were used to compute the risk. The model was applied to a generic manned space capsule design. The effect of material property uncertainty and MMOD damage on risk of failure were analyzed. A comparison of the direct computation and response surface approach was undertaken.

  7. Quantifying and Analysing Neighbourhood Characteristics Supporting Urban Land-Use Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Henning Sten

    2009-01-01

    Land-use modelling and spatial scenarios have gained increased attention as a means to meet the challenge of reducing uncertainty in the spatial planning and decision-making. Several organisations have developed software for land-use modelling. Many of the recent modelling efforts incorporate...... cellular automata (CA) to accomplish spatially explicit land-use change modelling. Spatial interaction between neighbour land-uses is an important component in urban cellular automata. Nevertheless, this component is calibrated through trial-and-error estimation. The aim of the current research project has...... been to quantify and analyse land-use neighbourhood characteristics and impart useful information for cell based land-use modelling. The results of our research is a major step forward, because we have estimated rules for neighbourhood interaction from really observed land-use changes at a yearly basis...

  8. Introduction of a simple-model-based land surface dataset for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2015-04-01

    Land surface hydrology can play a crucial role during extreme events such as droughts, floods and even heat waves. We introduce in this study a new hydrological dataset for Europe that consists of soil moisture, runoff and evapotranspiration (ET). It is derived with a simple water balance model (SWBM) forced with precipitation, temperature and net radiation. The SWBM dataset extends over the period 1984-2013 with a daily time step and 0.5° × 0.5° resolution. We employ a novel calibration approach, in which we consider 300 random parameter sets chosen from an observation-based range. Using several independent validation datasets representing soil moisture (or terrestrial water content), ET and streamflow, we identify the best performing parameter set and hence the new dataset. To illustrate its usefulness, the SWBM dataset is compared against several state-of-the-art datasets (ERA-Interim/Land, MERRA-Land, GLDAS-2-Noah, simulations of the Community Land Model Version 4), using all validation datasets as reference. For soil moisture dynamics it outperforms the benchmarks. Therefore the SWBM soil moisture dataset constitutes a reasonable alternative to sparse measurements, little validated model results, or proxy data such as precipitation indices. Also in terms of runoff the SWBM dataset performs well, whereas the evaluation of the SWBM ET dataset is overall satisfactory, but the dynamics are less well captured for this variable. This highlights the limitations of the dataset, as it is based on a simple model that uses uniform parameter values. Hence some processes impacting ET dynamics may not be captured, and quality issues may occur in regions with complex terrain. Even though the SWBM is well calibrated, it cannot replace more sophisticated models; but as their calibration is a complex task the present dataset may serve as a benchmark in future. In addition we investigate the sources of skill of the SWBM dataset and find that the parameter set has a similar

  9. A New Conceptual Model for the Continuum of Land Rights

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Akrofi

    “A theory which proposes that long-term social change happens in stages, that it is linear, ..... Shaw (2013, 169) who proposes a “new socially determined formality” to bridge the divide between .... between land rights and land tenure security with a focus on improving land tenure security, ..... cohesion, memory, trust, status ...

  10. The Goddard Snow Radiance Assimilation Project: An Integrated Snow Radiance and Snow Physics Modeling Framework for Snow/cold Land Surface Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, E.; Tedesco, M.; Reichle, R.; Choudhury, B.; Peters-Lidard C.; Foster, J.; Hall, D.; Riggs, G.

    2006-01-01

    Microwave-based retrievals of snow parameters from satellite observations have a long heritage and have so far been generated primarily by regression-based empirical "inversion" methods based on snapshots in time. Direct assimilation of microwave radiance into physical land surface models can be used to avoid errors associated with such retrieval/inversion methods, instead utilizing more straightforward forward models and temporal information. This approach has been used for years for atmospheric parameters by the operational weather forecasting community with great success. Recent developments in forward radiative transfer modeling, physical land surface modeling, and land data assimilation are converging to allow the assembly of an integrated framework for snow/cold lands modeling and radiance assimilation. The objective of the Goddard snow radiance assimilation project is to develop such a framework and explore its capabilities. The key elements of this framework include: a forward radiative transfer model (FRTM) for snow, a snowpack physical model, a land surface water/energy cycle model, and a data assimilation scheme. In fact, multiple models are available for each element enabling optimization to match the needs of a particular study. Together these form a modular and flexible framework for self-consistent, physically-based remote sensing and water/energy cycle studies. In this paper we will describe the elements and the integration plan. All modules will operate within the framework of the Land Information System (LIS), a land surface modeling framework with data assimilation capabilities running on a parallel-node computing cluster. Capabilities for assimilation of snow retrieval products are already under development for LIS. We will describe plans to add radiance-based assimilation capabilities. Plans for validation activities using field measurements will also be discussed.

  11. Global Land Use Regression Model for Nitrogen Dioxide Air Pollution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larkin, Andrew; Geddes, Jeffrey A; Martin, Randall V; Xiao, Qingyang; Liu, Yang; Marshall, Julian D; Brauer, Michael; Hystad, Perry

    2017-06-20

    Nitrogen dioxide is a common air pollutant with growing evidence of health impacts independent of other common pollutants such as ozone and particulate matter. However, the worldwide distribution of NO 2 exposure and associated impacts on health is still largely uncertain. To advance global exposure estimates we created a global nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) land use regression model for 2011 using annual measurements from 5,220 air monitors in 58 countries. The model captured 54% of global NO 2 variation, with a mean absolute error of 3.7 ppb. Regional performance varied from R 2 = 0.42 (Africa) to 0.67 (South America). Repeated 10% cross-validation using bootstrap sampling (n = 10,000) demonstrated a robust performance with respect to air monitor sampling in North America, Europe, and Asia (adjusted R 2 within 2%) but not for Africa and Oceania (adjusted R 2 within 11%) where NO 2 monitoring data are sparse. The final model included 10 variables that captured both between and within-city spatial gradients in NO 2 concentrations. Variable contributions differed between continental regions, but major roads within 100 m and satellite-derived NO 2 were consistently the strongest predictors. The resulting model can be used for global risk assessments and health studies, particularly in countries without existing NO 2 monitoring data or models.

  12. The missing biology in land carbon models (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prentice, I. C.; Cornwell, W.; Dong, N.; Maire, V.; Wang, H.; Wright, I.

    2013-12-01

    Models of terrestrial carbon cycling give divergent results, and recent developments - notably the inclusion of nitrogen-carbon cycle coupling - have apparently made matters worse. More extensive benchmarking of models would be highly desirable, but is not a panacea. Problems with current models include overparameterization (assigning separate sets of parameter values for each plant functional type can easily obscure more fundamental model limitations), and the widespread persistence of incorrect paradigms to describe plant responses to environment. Next-generation models require a more sound basis in observations and theory. A possible way forward will be outlined. It will be shown how the principle of optimization by natural selection can yield testable, general hypotheses about plant function. A specific optimality hypothesis about the control of CO2 drawdown versus water loss by leaves will be shown to yield global and quantitatively verifable predictions of plant behaviour as demonstrated in field gas-exchange measurements across species from different environments, and in the global pattern of stable carbon isotope discrimination by plants. Combined with the co-limitation hypothesis for the control of photosynthetic capacity and an economic approach to the costs of nutrient acquisition, this hypothesis provides a potential foundation for a comprehensive predictive understanding of the controls of primary production on land.

  13. Soil macrofauna community structure along a gradient of land use intensification in the humid forest zone of southern Cameroon.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Madong à Birang,

    2004-01-01

    The impact of land use systems on soil macrofauna community structures is described as well as their relationships with the vegetation and soil parameters in the humid forest zone of southernCameroon

  14. Connecting communities and business: Public-private partnerships as the panacea for land reform in Limpopo Province, South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spierenburg, M.J.; Cousins, B.; Bos, A.; Ntsholo, M.; Bruijn, M. de; Dijk, R. van

    2012-01-01

    Scattered among large-scale citrus orchards and game farms in Limpopo Province lie the densely populated former homelands of Venda, Gazankulu, and Lebowa. With few possibilities for development in these barren areas, many communities have lodged claims for the restitution of land from which they

  15. Anticoagulant rodenticides on our public and community lands: spatial distribution of exposure and poisoning of a rare forest carnivore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mourad W Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods; Robert Poppenga; Rick A. Sweitzer; Craig Thompson; Sean M. Matthews; J. Mark Higley; Stefan M. Keller; Kathryn Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Benjamin N. Sacks; Deanna L. Clifford

    2012-01-01

    Anticoagulant rodenticide (AR) poisoning has emerged as a significant concern for conservation and management of nontarget wildlife. The purpose for these toxicants is to suppress pest populations in agricultural or urban settings. The potential of direct and indirect exposures and illicit use of ARs on public and community forest lands have recently raised concern for...

  16. Assessing Independent Variables Used in Econometric Modeling Forest Land Use or Land Cover Change: A Meta-Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow

    2014-01-01

    : We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...

  17. Engagement of scientific community and transparency in C accounting: the Brazilian case for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from land use, land-use change and forestry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bustamante, M. M. C.; Silva, J. S. O.; Cantinho, R. Z.; Shimbo, J. Z.; Oliveira, P. V. C.; Santos, M. M. O.; Ometto, J. P. H. B.; Cruz, M. R.; Mello, T. R. B.; Godiva, D.; Nobre, C. A.

    2018-05-01

    To effectively implement the Paris Agreement, capacity in carbon accounting must be strengthened in the developing world, and partnerships with local academic institutions can do the accounting for governments and fill the capacity gap. This paper highlights the Brazilian case, focusing on ways in which climate change science information and transparency are being incorporated in national C accounting initiatives, particularly the national inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals. We report how the third inventory for the sector of land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) was implemented to address scientific challenges involved in the monitoring of carbon stocks and land-use changes of diverse and complex biomes while addressing international and national policy demands (report and decision support) and transparency to various stakeholders. GHG emissions and removals associated with 2002–2010 carbon changes in aboveground, belowground biomass, necromass and soil carbon by land use and land cover changes were estimated for all Brazilian biomes, and for the Amazon estimates were also presented for the periods of 2002–2005 and 2005–2010. The inventory improved regional estimates for carbon stock and national emission factors with the support and engagement of the scientific community. Incorporation of local context is essential to reduce uncertainties and properly monitor efforts to contribute to GHG emission/reduction targets. To promote transparency and make information more accessible, the national inventory results were made available by the National Emissions Registry System (SIRENE). This system was built to support climate change policies as an important legal apparatus and by increasing access to emissions and land-use change data.

  18. Assimilation of remotely sensed chlorophyll fluorescence data into the land surface model CLM4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wieneke, S.; Ahrends, H. E.; Rascher, U.; Schween, J.; Schickling, A.; Crewell, S.

    2013-12-01

    Photosynthesis is the most important exchange process of CO2 between the atmosphere and the land-surface. Therefore, the prediction of vegetation response to environmental conditions like increasing CO2 concentrations or plant stress is crucial for a reliable prediction of climate change. Photosynthesis is a complex physiological process that consists of numerous bio-physical sub-processes and chemical reactions. Spatial and temporal patterns of photosynthesis depend on dynamic plant-specific adaptation strategies to highly variable environmental conditions. Photosynthesis can be estimated using land-surface models, but, while state-of-the-art models often rely on Plant Functional Type (PFT) specific constants, they poorly simulate the dynamic adaptation of the physiological status of plant canopies in space and time. Remotely sensed sun-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SICF) gives us now the possibility to estimate the diurnal dynamic vitality of the photosynthetic apparatus at both, the leaf and canopy levels. We installed within the framework of the Transregio32 project (www.tr32.de) automated hyperspectral fluorescence sensors at an agricultural site (winter wheat) in the Rur catchment area in West Germany at the end of July 2012. End of August, additional measurements of SIFC on nearby temperate grassland site (riparian meadow) and on a sugar beet field were performed. Spatial covering SICF data of the region were obtained during a measurement campaign using the newly developed air-borne hyperspectral sensor HyPlant on the 23 and 27 August 2012. SIFC data and data provided by eddy covariance measurements will be used to update certain model parameters that are normally set as constants. First model results demonstrate that the assimilation of SIFC into the Community Land Model 4 (CLM4) will result in a more realistic simulation of plant-specific adaptation strategies and therefore in a more realistic simulation of photosynthesis in space and time.

  19. Spatial Modelling of Land Price in The Semarang City

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widjonarko, W.

    2018-02-01

    Land has a very important role in supporting the population activity in both urban and rural areas. Demand for land tends to increase due to the increase in population, on the other hand the availability of land is limited. The increasing demand of land also occurred in the city of Semarang due to population growth and economic activity growth. The increasing demand for land in Semarang City has caused a shift in spatial demand patterns. The shift in land demand is due to limited supply of land in the area near to the city center, and the price become unaffordable for some residents of Semarang City. Due to the limitation of land supply in the city center has affected to the increasing demand of land in the suburbs. This phenomenon causes an increase in the price of land in the periphery of Semarang, and forms a land price pattern that resembles a circus tent, especially at a new center of activity on the periphery.

  20. Revisiting Kappa to account for change in the accuracy assessment of land-use models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van J.; Bregt, A.K.; Hagen-Zanker, A.

    2011-01-01

    Land-use change models are typically calibrated to reproduce known historic changes. Calibration results can then be assessed by comparing two datasets: the simulated land-use map and the actual land-use map at the same time. A common method for this is the Kappa statistic, which expresses the

  1. Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, Nicholas R; Brown, Daniel G; Ellis, Erle C

    2014-01-01

    Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM) as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model) landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model enhancement.

  2. Cross-site comparison of land-use decision-making and its consequences across land systems with a generalized agent-based model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas R Magliocca

    Full Text Available Local changes in land use result from the decisions and actions of land-users within land systems, which are structured by local and global environmental, economic, political, and cultural contexts. Such cross-scale causation presents a major challenge for developing a general understanding of how local decision-making shapes land-use changes at the global scale. This paper implements a generalized agent-based model (ABM as a virtual laboratory to explore how global and local processes influence the land-use and livelihood decisions of local land-users, operationalized as settlement-level agents, across the landscapes of six real-world test sites. Test sites were chosen in USA, Laos, and China to capture globally-significant variation in population density, market influence, and environmental conditions, with land systems ranging from swidden to commercial agriculture. Publicly available global data were integrated into the ABM to model cross-scale effects of economic globalization on local land-use decisions. A suite of statistics was developed to assess the accuracy of model-predicted land-use outcomes relative to observed and random (i.e. null model landscapes. At four of six sites, where environmental and demographic forces were important constraints on land-use choices, modeled land-use outcomes were more similar to those observed across sites than the null model. At the two sites in which market forces significantly influenced land-use and livelihood decisions, the model was a poorer predictor of land-use outcomes than the null model. Model successes and failures in simulating real-world land-use patterns enabled the testing of hypotheses on land-use decision-making and yielded insights on the importance of missing mechanisms. The virtual laboratory approach provides a practical framework for systematic improvement of both theory and predictive skill in land change science based on a continual process of experimentation and model

  3. Evaluating 90Sr and 137Cs accumulation by structural elements of exclusion zone's vegetative communities of meadow and lea land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paskevich, S.A.; Petrov, M.F.

    2003-01-01

    Biogenic carry-over of 90 Sr and 137 Cs by structural elements of exclusion zone's meadows and lea land phytocenosis is considered. Quantitative parameters of radionuclide accumulation are evaluated in substrate and live biomass of communities growing under various ecological conditions. It was stated that accumulation levels for ground biomass of communities depends, at a significant rate, on landscape growing conditions. These values fluctuate within the range of around 100 times. For 90 Sr, significantly lower difference in carry-over values was observed totaling up to 5 times, although for single community, this radionuclide carry-over exceeds essentially 137 Cs carry-over

  4. Combining emperical and theory-based land use modelling approaches to assess future availability of land and economic potential for sustainable biofuel production: Argentina as a case study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; van der Hilst, Floortje; van Eijck, Janske; Faaij, André; Verstegen, Judith; Hilbert, J.; Carballo, S.; Volante, J.

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, a land-use modelling framework is presented combining empirical and theory-based modelling approaches to determine economic potential of biofuel production avoiding indirect land-use changes (iLUC) resulting from land competition with other functions. The empirical approach explores

  5. Results from Assimilating AMSR-E Soil Moisture Estimates into a Land Surface Model Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter in the Land Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blankenship, Clay B.; Crosson, William L.; Case, Jonathan L.; Hale, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Improve simulations of soil moisture/temperature, and consequently boundary layer states and processes, by assimilating AMSR-E soil moisture estimates into a coupled land surface-mesoscale model Provide a new land surface model as an option in the Land Information System (LIS)

  6. Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Runhua; Cohn, Stephen E.; daSilva, Arlindo; Joiner, Joanna; Houser, Paul R.

    1997-01-01

    The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface

  7. Downscaling global land cover projections from an integrated assessment model for use in regional analyses: results and evaluation for the US from 2005 to 2095

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    West, Tristram O; Le Page, Yannick; Wolf, Julie; Thomson, Allison M; Huang, Maoyi

    2014-01-01

    Projections of land cover change generated from integrated assessment models (IAM) and other economic-based models can be applied for analyses of environmental impacts at sub-regional and landscape scales. For those IAM and economic models that project land cover change at the continental or regional scale, these projections must be downscaled and spatially distributed prior to use in climate or ecosystem models. Downscaling efforts to date have been conducted at the national extent with relatively high spatial resolution (30 m) and at the global extent with relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5°). We revised existing methods to downscale global land cover change projections for the US to 0.05° resolution using MODIS land cover data as the initial proxy for land class distribution. Land cover change realizations generated here represent a reference scenario and two emissions mitigation pathways (MPs) generated by the global change assessment model (GCAM). Future gridded land cover realizations are constructed for each MODIS plant functional type (PFT) from 2005 to 2095, commensurate with the community land model PFT land classes, and archived for public use. The GCAM land cover realizations provide spatially explicit estimates of potential shifts in croplands, grasslands, shrublands, and forest lands. Downscaling of the MPs indicate a net replacement of grassland by cropland in the western US and by forest in the eastern US. An evaluation of the downscaling method indicates that it is able to reproduce recent changes in cropland and grassland distributions in respective areas in the US, suggesting it could provide relevant insights into the potential impacts of socio-economic and environmental drivers on future changes in land cover. (letters)

  8. Land surface evapotranspiration modelling at the regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raffelli, Giulia; Ferraris, Stefano; Canone, Davide; Previati, Maurizio; Gisolo, Davide; Provenzale, Antonello

    2017-04-01

    Climate change has relevant implications for the environment, water resources and human life in general. The observed increment of mean air temperature, in addition to a more frequent occurrence of extreme events such as droughts, may have a severe effect on the hydrological cycle. Besides climate change, land use changes are assumed to be another relevant component of global change in terms of impacts on terrestrial ecosystems: socio-economic changes have led to conversions between meadows and pastures and in most cases to a complete abandonment of grasslands. Water is subject to different physical processes among which evapotranspiration (ET) is one of the most significant. In fact, ET plays a key role in estimating crop growth, water demand and irrigation water management, so estimating values of ET can be crucial for water resource planning, irrigation requirement and agricultural production. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) is the amount of evaporation that occurs when a sufficient water source is available. It can be estimated just knowing temperatures (mean, maximum and minimum) and solar radiation. Actual evapotranspiration (AET) is instead the real quantity of water which is consumed by soil and vegetation; it is obtained as a fraction of PET. The aim of this work was to apply a simplified hydrological model to calculate AET for the province of Turin (Italy) in order to assess the water content and estimate the groundwater recharge at a regional scale. The soil is seen as a bucket (FAO56 model, Allen et al., 1998) made of different layers, which interact with water and vegetation. The water balance is given by precipitations (both rain and snow) and dew as positive inputs, while AET, runoff and drainage represent the rate of water escaping from soil. The difference between inputs and outputs is the water stock. Model data inputs are: soil characteristics (percentage of clay, silt, sand, rocks and organic matter); soil depth; the wilting point (i.e. the

  9. Microbial Community-Level Physiological Profiles (CLPP) and herbicide mineralization potential in groundwater affected by agricultural land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Janniche, Gry Sander; Spliid, Henrik; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2012-01-01

    Diffuse groundwater pollution from agricultural land use may impact the microbial groundwater community, which was investigated as Community-Level Physiological Profiles (CLPP) using EcoPlate™. Water was sampled from seven piezometers and a spring in a small agricultural catchment with diffuse......-galacturonic acid, tween 40, and 4-hydroxy benzoic acid as substrates, whereas none preferred 2-hydroxy benzoic acid, α-d-lactose, d,l-α-glycerol phosphate, α-ketobutyric acid, l-threonine and glycyl-l-glutamic acid. Principal Component Analysis of the CLPP's clustered the most agriculturally affected groundwater...... samples, indicating that the agricultural land use affects the groundwater microbial communities. Furthermore, the ability to mineralize atrazine and isoproturon, which have been used in the catchment, was also associated with this cluster....

  10. Combination of process-oriented and pattern-oriented models of land-use change in a mountain area of Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Castella, J.C.; Verburg, P.H.

    2007-01-01

    The tools and methods developed by different scientific communities to simulate the dynamics of land use have emphasised either processes or patterns of changes. Agent-based models (ABM) belong to the former category while many spatially explicit simulation models belong to the latter. These two

  11. Land tenure regimes in Brazil and the social and environmental purpose of rural land possession: land tenure regularization of riverside communities in the Amazon floodplain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karla Rosane Aguiar Oliveira

    2015-06-01

    on the Concessão de Direito Real de Uso (“Concession of Real Right of Use” as one of the instruments that allows the State to ensure the social function of public properties and guarantee legal certainty for rural land possession by Amazon floodplain populations.

  12. LAND COVER CHANGE MONITORING OF TYPICAL FUNCTIONAL COMMUNITIES OF SICHUAN PROVINCE BASED ON ZY-3 DATA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. M. Li

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available According to the function, land space types are divided into key development areas, restricted development areas and forbidden development areas in Sichuan Province. This paper monitors and analyses the changes of land cover in different typical functional areas from 2010 to 2017, which based on ZY-3 high-score images data and combined with statistical yearbook and thematic data of Sichuan Province. The results show that: The land cover types of typical key development zones are mainly composed of cultivated land, forest land, garden land, and housing construction land, which accounts for the total area of land cover 87 %. The land cover types of typical restricted development zone mainly consists of forest land and grassland, which occupy 97.71 % of the total area of the surface coverage. The land cover types of the typical prohibition development zone mainly consist of forest land, grassland, desert and bared earth, which accounts for the total area of land cover 99.31 %.

  13. Community Satisfaction in Czech Rural Communities: A Multilevel Model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Bernard, Josef

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 55, č. 2 (2015), s. 205-226 ISSN 0038-0199 Institutional support: RVO:68378025 Keywords : community satisfaction * rural communities * contextual effects Subject RIV: AO - Sociology , Demography Impact factor: 1.380, year: 2015

  14. Coupling a groundwater model with a land surface model to improve water and energy cycle simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Tian

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Water and energy cycles interact, making these two processes closely related. Land surface models (LSMs can describe the water and energy cycles on the land surface, but their description of the subsurface water processes is oversimplified, and lateral groundwater flow is ignored. Groundwater models (GWMs describe the dynamic movement of the subsurface water well, but they cannot depict the physical mechanisms of the evapotranspiration (ET process in detail. In this study, a coupled model of groundwater flow with a simple biosphere (GWSiB is developed based on the full coupling of a typical land surface model (SiB2 and a 3-D variably saturated groundwater model (AquiferFlow. In this coupled model, the infiltration, ET and energy transfer are simulated by SiB2 using the soil moisture results from the groundwater flow model. The infiltration and ET results are applied iteratively to drive the groundwater flow model. After the coupled model is built, a sensitivity test is first performed, and the effect of the groundwater depth and the hydraulic conductivity parameters on the ET are analyzed. The coupled model is then validated using measurements from two stations located in shallow and deep groundwater depth zones. Finally, the coupled model is applied to data from the middle reach of the Heihe River basin in the northwest of China to test the regional simulation capabilities of the model.

  15. High compatibility between arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal communities and seedlings of different land use types in a tropical dry ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gavito, Mayra E; Pérez-Castillo, Daniel; González-Monterrubio, César F; Vieyra-Hernández, Teresa; Martínez-Trujillo, Miguel

    2008-12-01

    We conducted this study to explore limitations for the establishment of mycorrhizal associations in disturbed areas of the tropical dry ecosystem in the Chamela region of Jalisco, Mexico. Specifically, we: (1) assessed the diversity and composition of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) communities through spore morphospecies identification in three common land uses (primary forest, secondary forest, and pasture), (2) tested the inoculum potential of the AMF communities and the effect of water stress on the establishment of mycorrhizal associations in seedlings of various plant species, and (3) explored the importance of AMF community composition on early seedling development. Soil and root samples were taken from 15 random points in each of three plots established in two primary forests, two 26-year-old secondary forests, and two 26-year-old pastures. We expected that because of soil degradation and management, pastures would have the lowest and primary forests the highest AMF species richness. We found evidence for changes in AMF species composition due to land use and for higher morphospecies richness in primary forests than in secondary forests and pastures. We expected also that water stress limited plant and mycorrhizal development and that plants and AMF communities from secondary forests and pastures would be less affected by (better adapted to) water stress than those from the primary forest. We found that although all plant species showed biomass reductions under water stress, only some of the plant species had lower mycorrhizal development under water stress, and this was regardless of the AMF community inoculated. The third hypothesis was that plant species common to all land use types would respond similarly to all AMF communities, whereas plant species found mainly in one land use type would grow better when inoculated with the AMF community of that specific land use type. All plant species were however equally responsive to the three AMF communities

  16. A Dynamic Simulation Model of Land-Use, Population, and Rural Livelihoods in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garedew, Efrem; Sandewall, Mats; Soderberg, Ulf

    2012-01-01

    The dynamic interactions between society and land resources have to be taken into account when planning and managing natural resources. A computer model, using STELLA software, was developed through active participation of purposively selected farm households from different wealth groups, age groups and gender within a rural community and some members of Kebelle council. The aim of the modeling was to study the perceived changes in land-use, population and livelihoods over the next 30 years and to improve our understanding of the interactions among them. The modeling output is characterized by rapid population growth, declining farm size and household incomes, deteriorating woody vegetation cover and worsening land degradation if current conditions remain. However, through integrated intervention strategies (including forest increase, micro-finance, family planning, health and education) the woody vegetation cover is likely to increase in the landscape, population growth is likely to slow down and households' income is likely to improve. A validation assessment of the simulation model based on historical data on land-use and population from 1973 to 2006 showed that the model is relatively robust. We conclude that as a supporting tool, the simulation model can contribute to the decision making process.

  17. Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations - the EALCO model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, S.; Zhang, Y.; Trishchenko, A.

    2004-05-01

    Ecosystems are intrinsically dynamic and interact with climate at a highly integrated level. Climate variables are the main driving factors in controlling the ecosystem physical, physiological, and biogeochemical processes including energy balance, water balance, photosynthesis, respiration, and nutrient cycling. On the other hand, ecosystems function as an integrity and feedback on the climate system through their control on surface radiation balance, energy partitioning, and greenhouse gases exchange. To improve our capability in climate change impact assessment, a comprehensive ecosystem model is required to address the many interactions between climate change and ecosystems. In addition, different ecosystems can have very different responses to the climate change and its variation. To provide more scientific support for ecosystem impact assessment at national scale, it is imperative that ecosystem models have the capability of assimilating the large scale geospatial information including satellite observations, GIS datasets, and climate model outputs or reanalysis. The EALCO model (Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations) is developed for such purposes. EALCO includes the comprehensive interactions among ecosystem processes and climate, and assimilates a variety of remote sensing products and GIS database. It provides both national and local scale model outputs for ecosystem responses to climate change including radiation and energy balances, water conditions and hydrological cycles, carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas exchange, and nutrient (N) cycling. These results form the foundation for the assessment of climate change impact on ecosystems, their services, and adaptation options. In this poster, the main algorithms for the radiation, energy, water, carbon, and nitrogen simulations were diagrammed. Sample input data layers at Canada national scale were illustrated. Model outputs including the Canada wide spatial distributions of net

  18. Adapting observationally based metrics of biogeophysical feedbacks from land cover/land use change to climate modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Liang; Dirmeyer, Paul A

    2016-01-01

    To assess the biogeophysical impacts of land cover/land use change (LCLUC) on surface temperature, two observation-based metrics and their applicability in climate modeling were explored in this study. Both metrics were developed based on the surface energy balance, and provided insight into the contribution of different aspects of land surface change (such as albedo, surface roughness, net radiation and surface heat fluxes) to changing climate. A revision of the first metric, the intrinsic biophysical mechanism, can be used to distinguish the direct and indirect effects of LCLUC on surface temperature. The other, a decomposed temperature metric, gives a straightforward depiction of separate contributions of all components of the surface energy balance. These two metrics well capture observed and model simulated surface temperature changes in response to LCLUC. Results from paired FLUXNET sites and land surface model sensitivity experiments indicate that surface roughness effects usually dominate the direct biogeophysical feedback of LCLUC, while other effects play a secondary role. However, coupled climate model experiments show that these direct effects can be attenuated by large scale atmospheric changes (indirect feedbacks). When applied to real-time transient LCLUC experiments, the metrics also demonstrate usefulness for assessing the performance of climate models and quantifying land–atmosphere interactions in response to LCLUC. (letter)

  19. Dissimilarity of Ant Communities Increases with Precipitation, but not Reduced Land-Use Intensity, in Indonesian Cacao Agroforestry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Damayanti Buchori

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Land-use degradation and climate change are well-known drivers of biodiversity loss, but little information is available about their potential interaction. Here, we focus on the effects of land-use and precipitation on ant diversity in cacao agroforestry. In Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, we selected 16 cacao agroforestry plots with a shaded vs. unshaded plot in each of eight villages differing in precipitation (1032–2051 mm annual rainfall. On each plot, 10 cacao trees with similar size and age (7–10 years were selected for hand collection of ants on each cacao tree and the soil surface. In total, we found 80 ant species belonging to five subfamilies. Land-use intensification (removal of shade trees and precipitation had no effect on species richness of ants per cacao tree (alpha diversity and, in an additive partitioning approach, within-plot beta diversity. However, higher precipitation (but not shade significantly increased ant species dissimilarity across cacao trees within a plot, with ant species showing contrasting responses to precipitation. Reduced precipitation causing drought stress appeared to contribute to convergence of ant community structure, presumably via reduced heterogeneity in cacao tree growth. In conclusion, reduced precipitation greatly influenced ant community dissimilarity and appeared to be more important for ant community structure than land-use intensification.

  20. Estimating of the impact of land use changes using the conceptual hydrological model THESEUS??a case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wegehenkel, Martin

    As a result of a new agricultural funding policy established in 1992 by the European Community, it was assumed that up to 15-20% of arable land would have been set aside in the next years in the new federal states of north-eastern Germany, for example, Brandenburg. As one potential land use option, afforestation of these set aside areas was discussed to obtain deciduous forests. Since the mean annual precipitation in north-eastern Germany, Brandenburg is relatively low (480-530 mm y -1), an increase in interception and evapotranspiration loss by forests compared to arable land would lead to a reduction in ground water recharge. Experimental evidence to determine effects of such land use changes are rarely available. Therefore, there is a need for indirect methods to estimate the impact of afforestation on the water balance of catchments. In this paper, a conceptual hydrological model was verified and calibrated in two steps using data from the Stobber-catchment located in Brandenburg. In the first step, model outputs like daily evapotranspiration rates and soil water contents were verified on the basis of experimental data sets from two test locations. One test site with the land use arable land was located within the Stobber-catchment. The other test site with pine forest was located near by the catchment. In the second step, the model was used to estimate the impact of afforestation on catchment water balance and discharge. For that purpose, the model was calibrated against daily discharge measurements for the period 1995-1997. For a simple afforestation scenario, it was assumed that the area of forest increases from 34% up to 80% of the catchment area. The impact of this change in forest cover proportion was analyzed using the calibrated model. In case of increasing the proportion of forest cover in the catchment due to the scenario afforestation, the model predicts a reduction in discharge and an increase in evapotranspiration.

  1. How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, B.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Leeuwis, C.

    2011-01-01

    This paper reports and reflects on the contributions of land use models to societal problem solving. Its purpose is to inform model development and application and thus to increase chances for societal benefit of the modelling work. The key question is: How, when, and for what reasons does land use

  2. Research priorities in land use and land-cover change for the Earth System and Integrated Assessment Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hibbard, K.; Janetos, A.; Vuuren, van D.; Pongratz, J.; Rose, S.; Betts, R.; Herold, M.; Feddema, J.

    2010-01-01

    This special issue has highlighted recent and innovative methods and results that integrate observations and modelling analyses of regional to global aspect of biophysical and biogeochemical interactions of land-cover change with the climate system. Both the Earth System and the Integrated

  3. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2018-05-01

    Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  4. Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pathiraja

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2 in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

  5. Land-use type and intensity differentially filter traits in above- and below-ground arthropod communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birkhofer, Klaus; Gossner, Martin M; Diekötter, Tim; Drees, Claudia; Ferlian, Olga; Maraun, Mark; Scheu, Stefan; Weisser, Wolfgang W; Wolters, Volkmar; Wurst, Susanne; Zaitsev, Andrey S; Smith, Henrik G

    2017-05-01

    Along with the global decline of species richness goes a loss of ecological traits. Associated biotic homogenization of animal communities and narrowing of trait diversity threaten ecosystem functioning and human well-being. High management intensity is regarded as an important ecological filter, eliminating species that lack suitable adaptations. Below-ground arthropods are assumed to be less sensitive to such effects than above-ground arthropods. Here, we compared the impact of management intensity between (grassland vs. forest) and within land-use types (local management intensity) on the trait diversity and composition in below- and above-ground arthropod communities. We used data on 722 arthropod species living above-ground (Auchenorrhyncha and Heteroptera), primarily in soil (Chilopoda and Oribatida) or at the interface (Araneae and Carabidae). Our results show that trait diversity of arthropod communities is not primarily reduced by intense local land use, but is rather affected by differences between land-use types. Communities of Auchenorrhyncha and Chilopoda had significantly lower trait diversity in grassland habitats as compared to forests. Carabidae showed the opposite pattern with higher trait diversity in grasslands. Grasslands had a lower proportion of large Auchenorrhyncha and Carabidae individuals, whereas Chilopoda and Heteroptera individuals were larger in grasslands. Body size decreased with land-use intensity across taxa, but only in grasslands. The proportion of individuals with low mobility declined with land-use intensity in Araneae and Auchenorrhyncha, but increased in Chilopoda and grassland Heteroptera. The proportion of carnivorous individuals increased with land-use intensity in Heteroptera in forests and in Oribatida and Carabidae in grasslands. Our results suggest that gradients in management intensity across land-use types will not generally reduce trait diversity in multiple taxa, but will exert strong trait filtering within

  6. Hyperresolution global land surface modeling: Meeting a grand challenge for monitoring Earth's terrestrial water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Troy, Tara J.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; Blyth, Eleanor; de Roo, Ad; DöLl, Petra; Ek, Mike; Famiglietti, James; Gochis, David; van de Giesen, Nick; Houser, Paul; Jaffé, Peter R.; Kollet, Stefan; Lehner, Bernhard; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Sheffield, Justin; Wade, Andrew; Whitehead, Paul

    2011-05-01

    Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (˜10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 109 unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a "grand challenge" to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

  7. Hyperresolution Global Land Surface Modeling: Meeting a Grand Challenge for Monitoring Earth's Terrestrial Water

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wood, Eric F.; Roundy, Joshua K.; Troy, Tara J.; van Beek, L. P. H.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.; 4 Blyth, Eleanor; de Roo, Ad; Doell. Petra; Ek, Mike; Famiglietti, James; hide

    2011-01-01

    Monitoring Earth's terrestrial water conditions is critically important to many hydrological applications such as global food production; assessing water resources sustainability; and flood, drought, and climate change prediction. These needs have motivated the development of pilot monitoring and prediction systems for terrestrial hydrologic and vegetative states, but to date only at the rather coarse spatial resolutions (approx.10-100 km) over continental to global domains. Adequately addressing critical water cycle science questions and applications requires systems that are implemented globally at much higher resolutions, on the order of 1 km, resolutions referred to as hyperresolution in the context of global land surface models. This opinion paper sets forth the needs and benefits for a system that would monitor and predict the Earth's terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles. We discuss six major challenges in developing a system: improved representation of surface-subsurface interactions due to fine-scale topography and vegetation; improved representation of land-atmospheric interactions and resulting spatial information on soil moisture and evapotranspiration; inclusion of water quality as part of the biogeochemical cycle; representation of human impacts from water management; utilizing massively parallel computer systems and recent computational advances in solving hyperresolution models that will have up to 10(exp 9) unknowns; and developing the required in situ and remote sensing global data sets. We deem the development of a global hyperresolution model for monitoring the terrestrial water, energy, and biogeochemical cycles a grand challenge to the community, and we call upon the international hydrologic community and the hydrological science support infrastructure to endorse the effort.

  8. Land-Surface-Atmosphere Coupling in Observations and Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alan K Betts

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available The diurnal cycle and the daily mean at the land-surface result from the coupling of many physical processes. The framework of this review is largely conceptual; looking for relationships and information in the coupling of processes in models and observations. Starting from the surface energy balance, the role of the surface and cloud albedos in the shortwave and longwave fluxes is discussed. A long-wave radiative scaling of the diurnal temperature range and the night-time boundary layer is summarized. Several aspects of the local surface energy partition are presented: the role of soilwater availability and clouds; vector methods for understanding mixed layer evolution, and the coupling between surface and boundary layer that determines the lifting condensation level. Moving to larger scales, evaporation-precipitation feedback in models is discussed; and the coupling of column water vapor, clouds and precipitation to vertical motion and moisture convergence over the Amazon. The final topic is a comparison of the ratio of surface shortwave cloud forcing to the diabatic precipitation forcing of the atmosphere in ERA-40 with observations.

  9. NLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Hourly 0.125 x 0.125 degree V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah land-surface model (LSM) for Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation...

  10. NLDAS Noah Land Surface Model L4 Monthly 0.125 x 0.125 degree V002

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — This data set contains a series of land surface parameters simulated from the Noah land-surface model (LSM) for Phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation...

  11. [Responses of functional diversity of aquatic insect community to land use change in middle reach of Qiantang River, East China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Lian-Bo; Liu, Dong-Xiao; Liu, Shuo-Ru; Zhang, Yong; Tong, Xiao-Li; Wang, Bei-Xin

    2013-10-01

    Based on the biological traits such as life history, resistance ability against environmental disturbance, and physiological characteristics of aquatic insects, and by using the fourth-corner statistical method, this paper studied the responses of the functional diversity of aquatic insect community to land use change in the middle reach of Qiantang River, Zhejiang Province of East China. For the test aquatic insect community, some of its biological traits were sensitive to land use change, and altered along human disturbance gradients as expected. With the increasing intensity of human disturbance, the maximal insect body length decreased gradually, the dominant respiration pattern evolved from gill respiration to tegument respiration, and the abundance of burrowers increased significantly. At the same time, the functional diversity measured as Rao's quadratic entropy was significantly higher in reference sites than in disturbed sites (P aquatic community were mainly induced by the land use change caused by human activities, which resulted in the decline of stream water quality and habitat quality and the variations of aquatic insect community composition and biological traits. The aquatic insect biological traits and functional diversity could be the potentially effective indicators in the stream health assessment in the future.

  12. IHY Modeling Support at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chulaki, A.; Hesse, Michael; Kuznetsova, Masha; MacNeice, P.; Rastaetter, L.

    2005-01-01

    The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a US inter-agency activity aiming at research in support of the generation of advanced space weather models. As one of its main functions, the CCMC provides to researchers the use of space science models, even if they are not model owners themselves. In particular, the CCMC provides to the research community the execution of "runs-onrequest" for specific events of interest to space science researchers. Through this activity and the concurrent development of advanced visualization tools, CCMC provides, to the general science community, unprecedented access to a large number of state-of-the-art research models. CCMC houses models that cover the entire domain from the Sun to the Earth. In this presentation, we will provide an overview of CCMC modeling services that are available to support activities during the International Heliospheric Year. In order to tailor CCMC activities to IHY needs, we will also invite community input into our IHY planning activities.

  13. A Framework for Modelling Indirect Land Use Changes in Life Cycle Assessment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schmidt, Jannick Højrup; Weidema, Bo Pedersen; Brandão, Miguel

    2015-01-01

    Around 9% of global CO2 emissions originate from land use changes. Often, these emissions are not appropriately addressed in Life Cycle Assessment. The link between demand for crops in one region and impacts in other regions is referred to here as indirect land use change (iLUC) and includes...... demand for land and land use changes is established through markets for land's production capacity. The iLUC model presented is generally applicable to all land use types, crops and regions of the world in typical LCA decision-making contexts focusing on the long-term effects of small-scale changes...... deforestation, intensification and reduced consumption. Existing models for iLUC tend to ignore intensification and reduced consumption, they most often operate with arbitrary amortisation periods to allocate deforestation emissions over time, and the causal link between land occupation and deforestation...

  14. Accounting for heterogeneity of public lands in hedonic property models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charlotte Ham; Patricia A. Champ; John B. Loomis; Robin M. Reich

    2012-01-01

    Open space lands, national forests in particular, are usually treated as homogeneous entities in hedonic price studies. Failure to account for the heterogeneous nature of public open spaces may result in inappropriate inferences about the benefits of proximate location to such lands. In this study the hedonic price method is used to estimate the marginal values for...

  15. Inter-comparison of energy balance and hydrological models for land surface energy flux estimation over a whole river catchment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guzinski, R.; Nieto, H.; Stisen, S.

    2015-01-01

    Evapotranspiration (ET) is the main link between the natural water cycle and the land surface energy budget. Therefore water-balance and energy-balance approaches are two of the main methodologies for modelling this process. The water-balance approach is usually implemented as a complex....... The temporal patterns produced by the remote sensing and hydrological models are quite highly correlated (r ≈ 0.8). This indicates potential benefits to the hydrological modelling community of integrating spatial information derived through remote sensing methodology (contained in the ET maps...

  16. Global water balances reconstructed by multi-model offline simulations of land surface models under GSWP3 (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oki, T.; KIM, H.; Ferguson, C. R.; Dirmeyer, P.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2013-12-01

    As the climate warms, the frequency and severity of flood and drought events is projected to increase. Understanding the role that the land surface will play in reinforcing or diminishing these extremes at regional scales will become critical. In fact, the current development path from atmospheric (GCM) to coupled atmosphere-ocean (AOGCM) to fully-coupled dynamic earth system models (ESMs) has brought new awareness to the climate modeling community of the abundance of uncertainty in land surface parameterizations. One way to test the representativeness of a land surface scheme is to do so in off-line (uncoupled) mode with controlled, high quality meteorological forcing. When multiple land schemes are run in-parallel (with the same forcing data), an inter-comparison of their outputs can provide the basis for model confidence estimates and future model refinements. In 2003, the Global Soil Wetness Project Phase 2 (GSWP2) provided the first global multi-model analysis of land surface state variables and fluxes. It spanned the decade of 1986-1995. While it was state-of-the art at the time, physical schemes have since been enhanced, a number of additional processes and components in the water-energy-eco-systems nexus can now be simulated, , and the availability of global, long-term observationally-based datasets that can be used for forcing and validating models has grown. Today, the data exists to support century-scale off-line experiments. The ongoing follow-on to GSWP2, named GSWP3, capitalizes on these new feasibilities and model functionalities. The project's cornerstone is its century-scale (1901-2010), 3-hourly, 0.5° meteorological forcing dataset that has been dynamically downscaled from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis and bias-corrected using monthly Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation data. However, GSWP3 also has an important long-term future climate component that spans the 21st century

  17. Community-Based Rehabilitation of Critical Land at Jenar, Sragen, Central Java

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suharjo Suharjo

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The aims of the study of critical land rehabitation basing on the society in Jenar Sragen are to know: 1 the factory which cause the critical land; 2 the way to solve critical land; and 3 the role society in solving critical land. The collected date are 1 topography, 2 litologhy, 3 geomorphology, 4 soil, 5 hydrology, 6 land use, 7 the apportion of critical land, and 8 the way to solve critical land. The choice of sample uses purposive method, while the data analysis to get result uses descriptive method. The result of the study show that: 1 the distribution of critical land is in land unit of anticline hills of tuff rocks, marl, clay, and sand tuff which are denudated process by rensina soil and litosol from light to heavy which lie in dry land cultivation and forest. The factors which influence critical land are high rainfall (2178 mm, inclination slope (8 – 20%, solun soil whih is less than 20 cm and denudation process high is active; 2 the way that has been done is solving critical land rehabilitation is cooperation among the society, the forestry and commercial agricultural department and cone sugar factory of Mojo Sragen. The critical land which has been rehabilitated is state forest (266.95 ha and the dry lang cultivation of the society (772.50 ha; 3 the society has responsibility for the growth, the development and preservation of the long term plants (jati, sonokeling, mahoni. The participation of the society in that programme is about 3.117 people.

  18. Modelling of cadmium fluxes on energy crop land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palm, V.

    1992-04-01

    The flux of cadmium on energy crop land is investigated. Three mechanisms are accounted for; Uptake by plant, transport with water, and sorption to soil. Sorption is described with Freundlich isotherms. The system is simulated mathematically in order to estimate the sensitivity and importance of different parameters on the cadmium flow and sorption. The water flux through the soil and the uptake by plants are simulated with a hydrological model, SOIL. The simulated time period is two years. The parameters describing root distribution and evaporation due to crop are taken from measurements on energy crop (Salix). The resulting water flux, water content in the soil profile and the water uptake into roots, for each day and soil compartment, are used in the cadmium sorption simulation. In the cadmium sorption simulation the flux and equilibrium chemistry of cadmium is calculated. It is shown that the amount of cadmium that accumulates in the plant, and the depth to which the applied cadmium reaches depends strongly on the constants in the sorption isotherm. With an application of 10 mg Cd/m 2 in the given range of Freundlich equations, the simulations gave a plant uptake of between 0 and 30 % of the applied cadmium in two years. At higher concentrations, where cadmium sorption can be described by nonlinear isotherms, more cadmium is present in soil water and is generally more bioavailable. 25 refs

  19. High Resolution Land Surface Modeling over the NEF Basin in the Chilean Patagonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Stakeholders and policy makers perceive that water and climate change adaptation are among the most vulnerable issues that need to be addressed. Therefore, there is a need not only from the scientific community but also from the society to use integrated methodologies that link advances in climatology with hydrology to provide data that helps us to provide adaptation strategies. The Andes and the Chilean-Argentinean Patagonia have been steadily warming up to 0.5 Celsius degrees per decades at the same time that precipitation is decreasing by 10 to 12 % per decade. In the future is expected that these trends will continue which will have impacts in the annual water budget. The Chilean Patagonia has brought a lot of attention during last decade because two hydroelectric project seek to build dams in one of the most pristine environments in the world. Also, in the Baker River basin a series of Glacier Lakes Outburst Flood have occurred which is perceived as an undeniable consequence of the effects of climate change in the glacier system. Major attention is mainly situated in the impact of climate change in glaciers contribution to sea level rise, GLOF studies given the numerous supra glacier lakes that are forming, and the study of stream flow point observation. The objectives of this research are: 1) Study the historical trends of precipitation, temperature, land cover changes and streamflow available in the Baker Basin; 2) Use a couple glacier model with a land surface model to predict the evolution of glaciers and their effects in the water availability. To address these objectives, I will analyze trends in hydro meteorology observations and correlation with trends in Land Cover Changes. Use the WRF-hydro framework to generate data in a small watershed that will allow to calibrate a high resolution hydro glaciology model to understand the partition between glaciered and non-glaciered runoff. The parameters estimated in the small domain could have the potential to

  20. A Conceptual Model for Delineating Land Management Units (LMUs Using Geographical Object-Based Image Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deniz Gerçek

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Land management and planning is crucial for present and future use of land and the sustainability of land resources. Physical, biological and cultural characteristics of land can be used to define Land Management Units (LMUs that aid in decision making for managing land and communicating information between different research and application domains. This study aims to describe the classification of ecologically relevant land units that are suitable for land management, planning and conservation purposes. Relying on the idea of strong correlation between landform and potential landcover, a conceptual model for creating Land Management Units (LMUs from topographic data and biophysical information is presented. The proposed method employs a multi-level object-based classification of Digital Terrain Models (DTMs to derive landform units. The sensitivity of landform units to changes in segmentation scale is examined, and the outcome of the landform classification is evaluated. Landform classes are then aggregated with landcover information to produce ecologically relevant landform/landcover assemblages. These conceptual units that constitute a framework of connected entities are finally enriched given available socio-economic information e.g., land use, ownership, protection status, etc. to generate LMUs. LMUs attached to a geographic database enable the retrieval of information at various levels to support decision making for land management at various scales. LMUs that are created present a basis for conservation and management in a biodiverse area in the Black Sea region of Turkey.

  1. Prediction of Land Use Change Based on Markov and GM(1,1 Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SUN Yi-yang

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In order to explore the law of land use change in Laiwu City, Markov and GM(1,1 were respectively employed in the prediction of land use change in Laiwu from 2015 to 2050, after which the results were analyzed and discussed. The results showed that:(1The variational trends of all kinds of land use change predicted by the two models were consistent and the goodness of fit of the predictive value in corresponding years in the near future was high, illustrating that the predicted results in the near future were credible and the trend predicted in mid long term could be used as reference. (2The cultivated land would remanin almost no change from 2015 to 2020, and then gradually decreaseed in a small range from 2020 to 2050. The garden, the woodland, the grassland always reducing and the decreare range of the grassland was the largest. The urban village and industrial and mining land, the transportation land would be continuously increased and the range of urban village and industrial and mining land was the largest. The water and water conservancy facilities land and the other land would be always reduced in a very small range. It could be concluded that the results predicted by the two models in the near future were credible and could provide scientific basis for land use planning of Laiwu, while the method could provide reference for the prediction of land use change.

  2. Different land use intensities in grassland ecosystems drive ecology of microbial communities involved in nitrogen turnover in soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Annabel; Focks, Andreas; Radl, Viviane; Keil, Daniel; Welzl, Gerhard; Schöning, Ingo; Boch, Steffen; Marhan, Sven; Kandeler, Ellen; Schloter, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Understanding factors driving the ecology of N cycling microbial communities is of central importance for sustainable land use. In this study we report changes of abundance of denitrifiers, nitrifiers and nitrogen-fixing microorganisms (based on qPCR data for selected functional genes) in response to different land use intensity levels and the consequences for potential turnover rates. We investigated selected grassland sites being comparable with respect to soil type and climatic conditions, which have been continuously treated for many years as intensely used meadows (IM), intensely used mown pastures (IP) and extensively used pastures (EP), respectively. The obtained data were linked to above ground biodiversity pattern as well as water extractable fractions of nitrogen and carbon in soil. Shifts in land use intensity changed plant community composition from systems dominated by s-strategists in extensive managed grasslands to c-strategist dominated communities in intensive managed grasslands. Along the different types of land use intensity, the availability of inorganic nitrogen regulated the abundance of bacterial and archaeal ammonia oxidizers. In contrast, the amount of dissolved organic nitrogen determined the abundance of denitrifiers (nirS and nirK). The high abundance of nifH carrying bacteria at intensive managed sites gave evidence that the amounts of substrates as energy source outcompete the high availability of inorganic nitrogen in these sites. Overall, we revealed that abundance and function of microorganisms involved in key processes of inorganic N cycling (nitrification, denitrification and N fixation) might be independently regulated by different abiotic and biotic factors in response to land use intensity.

  3. Different land use intensities in grassland ecosystems drive ecology of microbial communities involved in nitrogen turnover in soil.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annabel Meyer

    Full Text Available Understanding factors driving the ecology of N cycling microbial communities is of central importance for sustainable land use. In this study we report changes of abundance of denitrifiers, nitrifiers and nitrogen-fixing microorganisms (based on qPCR data for selected functional genes in response to different land use intensity levels and the consequences for potential turnover rates. We investigated selected grassland sites being comparable with respect to soil type and climatic conditions, which have been continuously treated for many years as intensely used meadows (IM, intensely used mown pastures (IP and extensively used pastures (EP, respectively. The obtained data were linked to above ground biodiversity pattern as well as water extractable fractions of nitrogen and carbon in soil. Shifts in land use intensity changed plant community composition from systems dominated by s-strategists in extensive managed grasslands to c-strategist dominated communities in intensive managed grasslands. Along the different types of land use intensity, the availability of inorganic nitrogen regulated the abundance of bacterial and archaeal ammonia oxidizers. In contrast, the amount of dissolved organic nitrogen determined the abundance of denitrifiers (nirS and nirK. The high abundance of nifH carrying bacteria at intensive managed sites gave evidence that the amounts of substrates as energy source outcompete the high availability of inorganic nitrogen in these sites. Overall, we revealed that abundance and function of microorganisms involved in key processes of inorganic N cycling (nitrification, denitrification and N fixation might be independently regulated by different abiotic and biotic factors in response to land use intensity.

  4. Different Land Use Intensities in Grassland Ecosystems Drive Ecology of Microbial Communities Involved in Nitrogen Turnover in Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Annabel; Focks, Andreas; Radl, Viviane; Keil, Daniel; Welzl, Gerhard; Schöning, Ingo; Boch, Steffen; Marhan, Sven; Kandeler, Ellen; Schloter, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Understanding factors driving the ecology of N cycling microbial communities is of central importance for sustainable land use. In this study we report changes of abundance of denitrifiers, nitrifiers and nitrogen-fixing microorganisms (based on qPCR data for selected functional genes) in response to different land use intensity levels and the consequences for potential turnover rates. We investigated selected grassland sites being comparable with respect to soil type and climatic conditions, which have been continuously treated for many years as intensely used meadows (IM), intensely used mown pastures (IP) and extensively used pastures (EP), respectively. The obtained data were linked to above ground biodiversity pattern as well as water extractable fractions of nitrogen and carbon in soil. Shifts in land use intensity changed plant community composition from systems dominated by s-strategists in extensive managed grasslands to c-strategist dominated communities in intensive managed grasslands. Along the different types of land use intensity, the availability of inorganic nitrogen regulated the abundance of bacterial and archaeal ammonia oxidizers. In contrast, the amount of dissolved organic nitrogen determined the abundance of denitrifiers (nirS and nirK). The high abundance of nifH carrying bacteria at intensive managed sites gave evidence that the amounts of substrates as energy source outcompete the high availability of inorganic nitrogen in these sites. Overall, we revealed that abundance and function of microorganisms involved in key processes of inorganic N cycling (nitrification, denitrification and N fixation) might be independently regulated by different abiotic and biotic factors in response to land use intensity. PMID:24039974

  5. Modeling the Dynamic Interrelations between Mobility, Utility, and Land Asking Price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidayat, E.; Rudiarto, I.; Siegert, F.; Vries, W. D.

    2018-02-01

    Limited and insufficient information about the dynamic interrelation among mobility, utility, and land price is the main reason to conduct this research. Several studies, with several approaches, and several variables have been conducted so far in order to model the land price. However, most of these models appear to generate primarily static land prices. Thus, a research is required to compare, design, and validate different models which calculate and/or compare the inter-relational changes of mobility, utility, and land price. The applied method is a combination of analysis of literature review, expert interview, and statistical analysis. The result is newly improved mathematical model which have been validated and is suitable for the case study location. This improved model consists of 12 appropriate variables. This model can be implemented in the Salatiga city as the case study location in order to arrange better land use planning to mitigate the uncontrolled urban growth.

  6. Towards a public, standardized, diagnostic benchmarking system for land surface models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Abramowitz

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available This work examines different conceptions of land surface model benchmarking and the importance of internationally standardized evaluation experiments that specify data sets, variables, metrics and model resolutions. It additionally demonstrates how essential the definition of a priori expectations of model performance can be, based on the complexity of a model and the amount of information being provided to it, and gives an example of how these expectations might be quantified. Finally, the Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface models (PALS is introduced – a free, online land surface model benchmarking application that is structured to meet both of these goals.

  7. A novel assessment of the role of land-use and land-cover change in the global carbon cycle, using a new Dynamic Global Vegetation Model version of the CABLE land surface model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haverd, Vanessa; Smith, Benjamin; Nieradzik, Lars; Briggs, Peter; Canadell, Josep

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, terrestrial ecosystems have sequestered around 1.2 PgC y-1, an amount equivalent to 20% of fossil-fuel emissions. This land carbon flux is the net result of the impact of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity (CO2-climate driven land sink ) and deforestation, harvest and secondary forest regrowth (the land-use change (LUC) flux). The future trajectory of the land carbon flux is highly dependent upon the contributions of these processes to the net flux. However their contributions are highly uncertain, in part because the CO2-climate driven land sink and LUC components are often estimated independently, when in fact they are coupled. We provide a novel assessment of global land carbon fluxes (1800-2015) that integrates land-use effects with the effects of changing climate and CO2 on ecosystem productivity. For this, we use a new land-use enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) version of the CABLE land surface model, suitable for use in attributing changes in terrestrial carbon balance, and in predicting changes in vegetation cover and associated effects on land-atmosphere exchange. In this model, land-use-change is driven by prescribed gross land-use transitions and harvest areas, which are converted to changes in land-use area and transfer of carbon between pools (soil, litter, biomass, harvested wood products and cleared wood pools). A novel aspect is the treatment of secondary woody vegetation via the coupling between the land-use module and the POP (Populations Order Physiology) module for woody demography and disturbance-mediated landscape heterogeneity. Land-use transitions to and from secondary forest tiles modify the patch age distribution within secondary-vegetated tiles, in turn affecting biomass accumulation and turnover rates and hence the magnitude of the secondary forest sink. The resulting secondary forest patch age distribution also influences the magnitude of the secondary forest harvest and clearance fluxes

  8. Pyrosequencing of microbial community of typical chernozem in contrast land use conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ivanova, Ekaterina; Olga, Kutovaya; Azida, Tkhakakhova

    2015-04-01

    Chernozems are the principal soil resourse of Russia, so the sustainable use of these fertile soils in the intensive agriculturural production is of great importance, especially in terms of agro-ecological security of the country. The increase in agricultural inputs - intensive cropping, soil fallowing application accompanied with high frequency of mechanical treatment, result in decrease in soil organic matter content as well as soil structure degradation and, finally, lead to the loss of soil fertility. Soil microorganisms can serve as bioindicators of anthropogenic stress experienced by the soil during its agricultural use, so they may be universal indicators of soil quality (soil health) used for optimization and biologization of agricultural systems. The way to study the relationship between the structural status of the soil, its microbial communities and the organic matter content is the comparative analysis of soil aggregates in conditions of different land use practices. The objects of our research were soil samples of soil with permanent wheat cropping (50 years), continuous dead fallow (50 years) soil, and recovering soil (for 18 years under native steppe vegetation, fallowed in previous). The analysis of 16 S rRNA gene amplicon libraries of typical chernozem in conditions of different land use systems revealed that the way of agricultural use is a strong determinant of soil microbiome taxonomic composition. It was shown that the continuous «dead fallowing» application (for 50 years) lead to the establishment of olygothrophic components of microbial community, including spore-forming members of phylum Firmicutes. The increase of Acidobacteria lineages in this variant may be an indicator of some acidification of soil during long-time fallowing application. The variant of continuous wheat cropping lead to increasing in Proteobacteria lineages. The variant of soil under native steppe vegetation was characterized by the highest values of biodiversity

  9. Land Use and Land Cover Changes under Climate Uncertainty: Modelling the Impacts on Hydropower Production in Western Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salomon Obahoundje

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The Bui hydropower plant plays a vital role in the socio-economic development of Ghana. This paper attempt to explore the combined effects of climate-land use land cover change on power production using the (WEAP model: Water Evaluation and Planning system. The historical analysis of rainfall and stream flow variability showed that the annual coefficient of variation of rainfall and stream flow are, respectively, 8.6% and 60.85%. The stream flow varied greatly than the rainfall, due to land use land cover changes (LULC. In fact, the LULC analysis revealed important changes in vegetative areas and water bodies. The WEAP model evaluation showed that combined effects of LULC and climate change reduce water availability for all of demand sectors, including hydropower generation at the Bui hydropower plant. However, it was projected that Bui power production will increase by 40.7% and 24.93%, respectively, under wet and adaptation conditions, and decrease by 46% and 2.5%, respectively, under dry and current conditions. The wet condition is defined as an increase in rainfall by 14%, the dry condition as the decrease in rainfall by 15%; current account is business as usual, and the adaptation is as the efficient use of water for the period 2012–2040.

  10. Reconstruction of droughts in India using multiple land-surface models (1951-2015)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Vimal; Shah, Reepal; Azhar, Syed; Shah, Harsh; Modi, Parth; Kumar, Rohini

    2018-04-01

    India has witnessed some of the most severe historical droughts in the current decade, and severity, frequency, and areal extent of droughts have been increasing. As a large part of the population of India is dependent on agriculture, soil moisture drought affecting agricultural activities (crop yields) has significant impacts on socio-economic conditions. Due to limited observations, soil moisture is generally simulated using land-surface hydrological models (LSMs); however, these LSM outputs have uncertainty due to many factors, including errors in forcing data and model parameterization. Here we reconstruct agricultural drought events over India during the period of 1951-2015 based on simulated soil moisture from three LSMs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), the Noah, and the Community Land Model (CLM). Based on simulations from the three LSMs, we find that major drought events occurred in 1987, 2002, and 2015 during the monsoon season (June through September). During the Rabi season (November through February), major soil moisture droughts occurred in 1966, 1973, 2001, and 2003. Soil moisture droughts estimated from the three LSMs are comparable in terms of their spatial coverage; however, differences are found in drought severity. Moreover, we find a higher uncertainty in simulated drought characteristics over a large part of India during the major crop-growing season (Rabi season, November to February: NDJF) compared to those of the monsoon season (June to September: JJAS). Furthermore, uncertainty in drought estimates is higher for severe and localized droughts. Higher uncertainty in the soil moisture droughts is largely due to the difference in model parameterizations (especially soil depth), resulting in different persistence of soil moisture simulated by the three LSMs. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for the LSMs' uncertainty and consideration of the multi-model ensemble system for the real-time monitoring and prediction of

  11. An Integrated Software Framework to Support Semantic Modeling and Reasoning of Spatiotemporal Change of Geographical Objects: A Use Case of Land Use and Land Cover Change Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenwen Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Evolving Earth observation and change detection techniques enable the automatic identification of Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC over a large extent from massive amounts of remote sensing data. It at the same time poses a major challenge in effective organization, representation and modeling of such information. This study proposes and implements an integrated computational framework to support the modeling, semantic and spatial reasoning of change information with regard to space, time and topology. We first proposed a conceptual model to formally represent the spatiotemporal variation of change data, which is essential knowledge to support various environmental and social studies, such as deforestation and urbanization studies. Then, a spatial ontology was created to encode these semantic spatiotemporal data in a machine-understandable format. Based on the knowledge defined in the ontology and related reasoning rules, a semantic platform was developed to support the semantic query and change trajectory reasoning of areas with LULCC. This semantic platform is innovative, as it integrates semantic and spatial reasoning into a coherent computational and operational software framework to support automated semantic analysis of time series data that can go beyond LULC datasets. In addition, this system scales well as the amount of data increases, validated by a number of experimental results. This work contributes significantly to both the geospatial Semantic Web and GIScience communities in terms of the establishment of the (web-based semantic platform for collaborative question answering and decision-making.

  12. Evaluation of Intensive Construction Land Use in the Emerging City Based on PSR-Entropy model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yuanyuan; Lei, Guangyu

    2018-01-01

    A comprehensive understanding of emerging city land utilization and the evaluation of intensive land use in the Emerging City will provide the comprehensive and reliable technical basis for the planning and management. It is an important node. According to the Han cheng from 2008 to 2016 years of land use, based on PSR-Entropy model of land use evaluation system, using entropy method to determine the index weight, the introduction of comprehensive index method to evaluate the degree of land use. The results show that the intensive land use comprehensive evaluation index of Han cheng increased from 2008 to 2015, but the land intensive use can not achieve the standards. The potential of further enhancing space is relatively large.

  13. The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boville, B. A.; Garcia, R. R.; Sassi, F.; Kinnison, D.; Roble, R. G.

    The Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) is an upward exten- sion of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model. WACCM simulates the atmosphere from the surface to the lower thermosphere (140 km) and includes both dynamical and chemical components. The salient points of the model formulation will be summarized and several aspects of its performance will be discussed. Comparison with observations indicates that WACCM produces re- alistic temperature and zonal wind distributions. Both the mean state and interannual variability will be summarized. Temperature inversions in the midlatitude mesosphere have been reported by several authors and are also found in WACCM. These inver- sions are formed primarily by planetary wave forcing, but the background state on which they form also requires gravity wave forcing. The response to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies will be examined by com- paring simulations with observed SSTs for 1950-1998 to a simulation with clima- tological annual cycle of SSTs. The response to ENSO events is found to extend though the winter stratosphere and mesosphere and a signal is also found at the sum- mer mesopause. The experimental framework allows the ENSO signal to be isolated, because no other forcings are included (e.g. solar variability and volcanic eruptions) which complicate the observational record. The temperature and wind variations asso- ciated with ENSO are large enough to generate significant perturbations in the chem- ical composition of the middle atmosphere, which will also be discussed.

  14. "Modeling" Youth Work: Logic Models, Neoliberalism, and Community Praxis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carpenter, Sara

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines the use of logic models in the development of community initiatives within the AmeriCorps program. AmeriCorps is the civilian national service programme in the U.S., operating as a grants programme to local governments and not-for-profit organisations and providing low-cost labour to address pressing issues of social…

  15. Elevated temperature alters carbon cycling in a model microbial community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosier, A.; Li, Z.; Thomas, B. C.; Hettich, R. L.; Pan, C.; Banfield, J. F.

    2013-12-01

    Earth's climate is regulated by biogeochemical carbon exchanges between the land, oceans and atmosphere that are chiefly driven by microorganisms. Microbial communities are therefore indispensible to the study of carbon cycling and its impacts on the global climate system. In spite of the critical role of microbial communities in carbon cycling processes, microbial activity is currently minimally represented or altogether absent from most Earth System Models. Method development and hypothesis-driven experimentation on tractable model ecosystems of reduced complexity, as presented here, are essential for building molecularly resolved, benchmarked carbon-climate models. Here, we use chemoautotropic acid mine drainage biofilms as a model community to determine how elevated temperature, a key parameter of global climate change, regulates the flow of carbon through microbial-based ecosystems. This study represents the first community proteomics analysis using tandem mass tags (TMT), which enable accurate, precise, and reproducible quantification of proteins. We compare protein expression levels of biofilms growing over a narrow temperature range expected to occur with predicted climate changes. We show that elevated temperature leads to up-regulation of proteins involved in amino acid metabolism and protein modification, and down-regulation of proteins involved in growth and reproduction. Closely related bacterial genotypes differ in their response to temperature: Elevated temperature represses carbon fixation by two Leptospirillum genotypes, whereas carbon fixation is significantly up-regulated at higher temperature by a third closely related genotypic group. Leptospirillum group III bacteria are more susceptible to viral stress at elevated temperature, which may lead to greater carbon turnover in the microbial food web through the release of viral lysate. Overall, this proteogenomics approach revealed the effects of climate change on carbon cycling pathways and other

  16. Inclusion Community Model: Learning from Bali

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Samiyono

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available AbstrakKonflik sering muncul ketika manusia bertindak secara ekslusif dengan hanya melihat diri sendiri dan kelompoknya. Beberapa tokoh pluralisme membuat konsep mengenai masyarakat inklusif dengan tujuan mengurangi terjadinya konflik. Nagara Indonesia memiliki potensi besar terjadinya konflik, hal ini disebabkan karena negara Indonesia terdiri dari berbagai suku, budaya dan agama. Apabila konflik tidak dikelola, maka potensi terjadinya dis-integrasi bangsa sangat besar. Meskipun hal ini dapat juga dilihat sebagai kekayaan bangsa, model masyarakat inklusif diperlukan bagi bangsa Indonesiasebagai alat pemersatu yang harus dipahami dan diajarkan dari generasi satu kepada generasi berikutnya.Dalam penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan diskriptif-kualitatif yang sesuai dengan kondisi lokasi penelitian yaitu Bali dan Lampung. Analisis dilakukan melalui narasi dengan menggunakan informasi yang diperoleh dari informan atau partisipan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya nilai-nilai inklusif dalam budaya masyarakat Bali yang tinggal di Pulau Bali. Masyarakat Bali yang sudah bergaul dengan berbagaibudaya, agama, politik dan ekonomi. Oleh karena itu model masyarakat inklusif dari kasus masyarakat Bali perlu dilakukan dalam usaha untuk bisa diuji-cobakan pada masyarakat yang berbeda, terutama pada wailayah negara Indonesia yang majemuk.Kata kunci: Bali, Inclussion community, menyama braya. AbstractConflict often occurs when people behave closed and exclusive by looking at himself and his group. Some authors propose the concept of inclusion community to reduce the conflict and towards a harmonious society. Indonesia has a huge potential for conflict to happendue to the number of tribe, religion, race and class, but on the other hand it has had a noble wealth in society, which needs to be exposed and arranged to become a teaching material  for future generations. That is why this research is done. This research uses descriptive qualitative

  17. Losing the plot. The threats to community land and the rural poor through the spread of the biofuel jatropha in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burley, H.; Bebb, A.

    2009-12-01

    This report looks at the impact of India's jatropha targets on rural communities, focusing on the state of Chhattisgarh - a traditional rice-growing area where the crop is being grown. The report finds that thousands of tribal and lower caste Indians have been forced from community lands which they have relied on for generations. Without consultation or consent, common lands traditionally used for livestock grazing and subsistence farming by some of India's poorest communities has been forcibly grabbed and planted with jatropha. Objectors have often faced brutal repercussions and legal battles. The report also questions the Indian government's designation of land as suitable for jatropha. Some 13.4 million hectares of land were earmarked for jatropha across the country, including 3 million hectares of forest land and 4 million hectares of 'waste land'. But the report finds that much of this so-called 'waste land' is not suitable for any form of cultivation, even though it often provides key shared community resources, such as village forests and commons, providing food, fuel and timber for many of the poorest rural communities. The forest lands are often inhabited by forest dwellers who depend on forest access to survive.

  18. Modeling Sustainability of Water, Environment, Livelihood, and Culture in Traditional Irrigation Communities and Their Linked Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kenneth Boykin

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Water scarcity, land use conversion and cultural and ecosystem changes threaten the way of life for traditional irrigation communities of the semi-arid southwestern United States. Traditions are strong, yet potential upheaval is great in these communities that rely on acequia irrigation systems. Acequias are ancient ditch systems brought from the Iberian Peninsula to the New World over 400 years ago; they are simultaneously gravity flow water delivery systems and shared water governance institutions. Acequias have survived periods of drought and external shocks from changing economics, demographics, and resource uses. Now, climate change and urbanization threaten water availability, ecosystem functions, and the acequia communities themselves. Do past adaptive practices hold the key to future sustainability, or are new strategies required? To explore this issue we translated disciplinary understanding into a uniform format of causal loop diagrams to conceptualize the subsystems of the entire acequia-based human-natural system. Four subsystems are identified in this study: hydrology, ecosystem, land use/economics, and sociocultural. Important linkages between subsystems were revealed as well as variables indicating community cohesion (e.g., total irrigated land, intensity of upland grazing, mutualism. Ongoing work will test the conceptualizations with field data and modeling exercises to capture tipping points for non-sustainability and thresholds for sustainable water use and community longevity.

  19. Modeling the effects of environmental disturbance on wildlife communities: Avian responses to prescribed fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, R.E.; Royle, J. Andrew; Saab, V.A.; Lehmkuhl, J.F.; Block, W.M.; Sauer, J.R.

    2009-01-01

    Prescribed fire is a management tool used to reduce fuel loads on public lands in forested areas in the western United States. Identifying the impacts of prescribed fire on bird communities in ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forests is necessary for providing land management agencies with information regarding the effects of fuel reduction on sensitive, threatened, and migratory bird species. Recent developments in occupancy modeling have established a framework for quantifying the impacts of management practices on wildlife community dynamics. We describe a Bayesian hierarchical model of multi-species occupancy accounting for detection probability, and we demonstrate the model's usefulness for identifying effects of habitat disturbances on wildlife communities. Advantages to using the model include the ability to estimate the effects of environmental impacts on rare or elusive species, the intuitive nature of the modeling, the incorporation of detection probability, the estimation of parameter uncertainty, the flexibility of the model to suit a variety of experimental designs, and the composite estimate of the response that applies to the collection of observed species as opposed to merely a small subset of common species. Our modeling of the impacts of prescribed fire on avian communities in a ponderosa pine forest in Washington indicate that prescribed fire treatments result in increased occupancy rates for several bark-insectivore, cavity-nesting species including a management species of interest, Black-backed Woodpeckers (Picoides arcticus). Three aerial insectivore species, and the ground insectivore, American Robin (Turdus migratorius), also responded positively to prescribed fire, whereas three foliage insectivores and two seed specialists, Clark's Nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) and the Pine Siskin (Carduelis pinus), declined following treatments. Land management agencies interested in determining the effects of habitat manipulations on wildlife

  20. Challenges and opportunities in land surface modelling of savanna ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Whitley

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The savanna complex is a highly diverse global biome that occurs within the seasonally dry tropical to sub-tropical equatorial latitudes and are structurally and functionally distinct from grasslands and forests. Savannas are open-canopy environments that encompass a broad demographic continuum, often characterised by a changing dominance between C3-tree and C4-grass vegetation, where frequent environmental disturbances such as fire modulates the balance between ephemeral and perennial life forms. Climate change is projected to result in significant changes to the savanna floristic structure, with increases to woody biomass expected through CO2 fertilisation in mesic savannas and increased tree mortality expected through increased rainfall interannual variability in xeric savannas. The complex interaction between vegetation and climate that occurs in savannas has traditionally challenged terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs, which aim to simulate the interaction between the atmosphere and the land surface to predict responses of vegetation to changing in environmental forcing. In this review, we examine whether TBMs are able to adequately represent savanna fluxes and what implications potential deficiencies may have for climate change projection scenarios that rely on these models. We start by highlighting the defining characteristic traits and behaviours of savannas, how these differ across continents and how this information is (or is not represented in the structural framework of many TBMs. We highlight three dynamic processes that we believe directly affect the water use and productivity of the savanna system: phenology, root-water access and fire dynamics. Following this, we discuss how these processes are represented in many current-generation TBMs and whether they are suitable for simulating savanna fluxes.Finally, we give an overview of how eddy-covariance observations in combination with other data sources can be used in model

  1. Immediate effects of modified landing pattern on a probabilistic tibial stress fracture model in runners.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, T L; An, W W; Chan, Z Y S; Au, I P H; Zhang, Z H; Cheung, R T H

    2016-03-01

    Tibial stress fracture is a common injury in runners. This condition has been associated with increased impact loading. Since vertical loading rates are related to the landing pattern, many heelstrike runners attempt to modify their footfalls for a lower risk of tibial stress fracture. Such effect of modified landing pattern remains unknown. This study examined the immediate effects of landing pattern modification on the probability of tibial stress fracture. Fourteen experienced heelstrike runners ran on an instrumented treadmill and they were given augmented feedback for landing pattern switch. We measured their running kinematics and kinetics during different landing patterns. Ankle joint contact force and peak tibial strains were estimated using computational models. We used an established mathematical model to determine the effect of landing pattern on stress fracture probability. Heelstrike runners experienced greater impact loading immediately after landing pattern switch (Ptibial strains and the risk of tibial stress fracture in runners with different landing patterns (P>0.986). Immediate transitioning of the landing pattern in heelstrike runners may not offer timely protection against tibial stress fracture, despite a reduction of impact loading. Long-term effects of landing pattern switch remains unknown. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Comparison of two perturbation methods to estimate the land surface modeling uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, H.; Houser, P.; Tian, Y.; Kumar, S.; Geiger, J.; Belvedere, D.

    2007-12-01

    In land surface modeling, it is almost impossible to simulate the land surface processes without any error because the earth system is highly complex and the physics of the land processes has not yet been understood sufficiently. In most cases, people want to know not only the model output but also the uncertainty in the modeling, to estimate how reliable the modeling is. Ensemble perturbation is an effective way to estimate the uncertainty in land surface modeling, since land surface models are highly nonlinear which makes the analytical approach not applicable in this estimation. The ideal perturbation noise is zero mean Gaussian distribution, however, this requirement can't be satisfied if the perturbed variables in land surface model have physical boundaries because part of the perturbation noises has to be removed to feed the land surface models properly. Two different perturbation methods are employed in our study to investigate their impact on quantifying land surface modeling uncertainty base on the Land Information System (LIS) framework developed by NASA/GSFC land team. One perturbation method is the built-in algorithm named "STATIC" in LIS version 5; the other is a new perturbation algorithm which was recently developed to minimize the overall bias in the perturbation by incorporating additional information from the whole time series for the perturbed variable. The statistical properties of the perturbation noise generated by the two different algorithms are investigated thoroughly by using a large ensemble size on a NASA supercomputer and then the corresponding uncertainty estimates based on the two perturbation methods are compared. Their further impacts on data assimilation are also discussed. Finally, an optimal perturbation method is suggested.

  3. MODERN LAND MANAGEMENT UKRAINE: CONCEPT, ESSENCE, TRENDS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tretiak Anton

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Modern transformations prevailing inUkrainein the sphere of land relations and the use and protection of land are critical and require changes without final rozrushennya existing system of land management, the reform and a new understanding of the nature and forms of modern land management. Given that land management is a fundamental mechanism for land management and land use, in our opinion its reform and development should be seen in close relationship with the development of management system. Problems in the theory of management of land resources, especially its main land managers in different socio-economic communities is extremely important because the efficiency of its operation is not the most important in the economic relations of land ownership. However, for more than 25 years the implementation of land reform inUkrainegovernment has not decided as of model management and land management systems. Functioning system of land management and land use inUkraineon a "top - down" is derived from the authoritarian system of the state, theSoviet Unionand there is not a market. Similarly unchanged system of land management, which is why the task was made research its current state for further scientific studies integrated management system. It is studied modern land management in Ukraine and proved the concept and essence of contemporary land in Ukraine as a multifunctional system, which requires besides the concepts of "social land management", "economy of land", "legal land management", "technical land management", such as "environmental land management", " innovation in land management", "cadastral land management", "ecological and economic land management". A new concept of land as the overall socio-economic, environmental measures and organizational, legal and technical actions aimed at regulating land relations and rational organization of the territory of the administrative-territorial entities, entities committed under the influence of

  4. Community Options Model): Using Artificial Intelligence for Transportation Planning and Community Decision Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-01-01

    This paper describes the Community Options Model for Transportation-Related Issues (COMTRI) designed to estimate the social and economic impacts of highway realignments on rural Michigan communities for the Michigan Department of Transportation (MDOT...

  5. The Effects of Agricultural Land-use on Stream Fish and Invertebrate Communities and Food-web Structure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    North, C. A.; Fischer, R. U.

    2005-05-01

    Incorporating knowledge of the surrounding landscape can further the understanding of stream processes. This is particularly true in areas like the Midwest where human alteration of the landscape, such as conversion of natural cover types into cultivated row crops, is widespread. When assessing stream health, the composition and structure of biological communities themselves often are the best indicators of water quality. Previous work in Hurricane Creek (Coles and Cumberland Counties, IL) demonstrated significant differences in water chemistry and community metabolism between sites subject to differing intensities of farming in the upstream watershed. Our objective was to examine differences in fish and invertebrate communities at four sites along the stream representing varying degrees of agricultural land-use. Fish were sampled using electroseining techniques and invertebrates were collected using the 20-jab method in each of four seasons. Sites were compared using fish and invertebrate community metrics, including indices of biotic integrity (IBI, MBI). Stable isotope analyses were also performed to quantify differences in food-web structure in streams draining watersheds characterized by different degrees of agricultural land-use. This study improves understanding of how landscape alteration impacts stream biota and will facilitate more informed decisions concerning stream rehabilitation.

  6. Microbial Community-Level Physiological Profiles (CLPP) and herbicide mineralization potential in groundwater affected by agricultural land use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janniche, Gry Sander; Spliid, Henrik; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2012-10-01

    Diffuse groundwater pollution from agricultural land use may impact the microbial groundwater community, which was investigated as Community-Level Physiological Profiles (CLPP) using EcoPlate™. Water was sampled from seven piezometers and a spring in a small agricultural catchment with diffuse herbicide and nitrate pollution. Based on the Shannon-Wiener and Simpson's diversity indices the diversity in the microbial communities was high. The response from the EcoPlates™ showed which substrates support groundwater bacteria, and all 31 carbon sources were utilized by organisms from at least one water sample. However, only nine carbon sources were utilized by all water samples: D-Mannitol, N-acetyl-D-glucosamine, putrescine, D-galacturonic acid, itaconic acid, 4-hydroxy benzoic acid, tween 40, tween 80, and L-asparagine. In all water samples the microorganisms preferred D-mannitol, D-galacturonic acid, tween 40, and 4-hydroxy benzoic acid as substrates, whereas none preferred 2-hydroxy benzoic acid, α-D-lactose, D,L-α-glycerol phosphate, α-ketobutyric acid, L-threonine and glycyl-L-glutamic acid. Principal Component Analysis of the CLPP's clustered the most agriculturally affected groundwater samples, indicating that the agricultural land use affects the groundwater microbial communities. Furthermore, the ability to mineralize atrazine and isoproturon, which have been used in the catchment, was also associated with this cluster.

  7. 2-way coupling the hydrological land surface model PROMET with the regional climate model MM5

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Zabel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Most land surface hydrological models (LSHMs consider land surface processes (e.g. soil–plant–atmosphere interactions, lateral water flows, snow and ice in a spatially detailed manner. The atmosphere is considered as exogenous driver, neglecting feedbacks between the land surface and the atmosphere. On the other hand, regional climate models (RCMs generally simulate land surface processes through coarse descriptions and spatial scales but include land–atmosphere interactions. What is the impact of the differently applied model physics and spatial resolution of LSHMs on the performance of RCMs? What feedback effects are induced by different land surface models? This study analyses the impact of replacing the land surface module (LSM within an RCM with a high resolution LSHM. A 2-way coupling approach was applied using the LSHM PROMET (1 × 1 km2 and the atmospheric part of the RCM MM5 (45 × 45 km2. The scaling interface SCALMET is used for down- and upscaling the linear and non-linear fluxes between the model scales. The change in the atmospheric response by MM5 using the LSHM is analysed, and its quality is compared to observations of temperature and precipitation for a 4 yr period from 1996 to 1999 for the Upper Danube catchment. By substituting the Noah-LSM with PROMET, simulated non-bias-corrected near-surface air temperature improves for annual, monthly and daily courses when compared to measurements from 277 meteorological weather stations within the Upper Danube catchment. The mean annual bias was improved from −0.85 to −0.13 K. In particular, the improved afternoon heating from May to September is caused by increased sensible heat flux and decreased latent heat flux as well as more incoming solar radiation in the fully coupled PROMET/MM5 in comparison to the NOAH/MM5 simulation. Triggered by the LSM replacement, precipitation overall is reduced; however simulated precipitation amounts are still of high uncertainty, both

  8. Looking Forward: Using Scenario Modeling to Support Regional Land Use Planning in Northern Yukon, Canada

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shawn R. Francis

    2011-12-01

    We describe how the ALCES® landscape cumulative effects simulation model was used to explore possible outcomes of an oil and gas scenario in the Eagle Plain basin of the North Yukon Planning Region of Yukon Territory, Canada. Scenario modeling was conducted to facilitate informed discussion about key land use issues and practices, potential levels of landscape change, and possible socioeconomic benefits and environmental impacts. Modeling results supported the sustainable development and cumulative effects management recommendations of the North Yukon Regional Land Use Plan. Land use scenario modeling, as applied in this project, was found to be an effective approach for establishing sustainable development guidelines through a regional planning process.

  9. The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souty, F.; Brunelle, T.; Dumas, P.; Dorin, B.; Ciais, P.; Crassous, R.; Müller, C.; Bondeau, A.

    2012-10-01

    Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.

  10. The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Souty

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL. The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated.

  11. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) contribution to CMIP6: rationale and experimental design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lawrence, David M.; Hurtt, George C.; Arneth, Almut; Brovkin, Victor; Calvin, Kate V.; Jones, Andrew D.; Jones, Chris D.; Lawrence, Peter J.; de Noblet-Ducoudré, Nathalie; Pongratz, Julia; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Shevliakova, Elena

    2016-09-01

    Human land-use activities have resulted in large changes to the Earth's surface, with resulting implications for climate. In the future, land-use activities are likely to expand and intensify further to meet growing demands for food, fiber, and energy. The Land Use Model Intercomparison Project (LUMIP) aims to further advance understanding of the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) on climate, specifically addressing the following questions. (1) What are the effects of LULCC on climate and biogeochemical cycling (past-future)? (2) What are the impacts of land management on surface fluxes of carbon, water, and energy, and are there regional land-management strategies with the promise to help mitigate climate change? In addressing these questions, LUMIP will also address a range of more detailed science questions to get at process-level attribution, uncertainty, data requirements, and other related issues in more depth and sophistication than possible in a multi-model context to date. There will be particular focus on the separation and quantification of the effects on climate from LULCC relative to all forcings, separation of biogeochemical from biogeophysical effects of land use, the unique impacts of land-cover change vs. land-management change, modulation of land-use impact on climate by land-atmosphere coupling strength, and the extent to which impacts of enhanced CO2 concentrations on plant photosynthesis are modulated by past and future land use.LUMIP involves three major sets of science activities: (1) development of an updated and expanded historical and future land-use data set, (2) an experimental protocol for specific LUMIP experiments for CMIP6, and (3) definition of metrics and diagnostic protocols that quantify model performance, and related sensitivities, with respect to LULCC. In this paper, we describe LUMIP activity (2), i.e., the LUMIP simulations that will formally be part of CMIP6. These experiments are explicitly designed to be

  12. Multiregional input-output model for China's farm land and water use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Shan; Shen, Geoffrey Qiping

    2015-01-06

    Land and water are the two main drivers of agricultural production. Pressure on farm land and water resources is increasing in China due to rising food demand. Domestic trade affects China's regional farm land and water use by distributing resources associated with the production of goods and services. This study constructs a multiregional input-output model to simultaneously analyze China's farm land and water uses embodied in consumption and interregional trade. Results show a great similarity for both China's farm land and water endowments. Shandong, Henan, Guangdong, and Yunnan are the most important drivers of farm land and water consumption in China, even though they have relatively few land and water resource endowments. Significant net transfers of embodied farm land and water flows are identified from the central and western areas to the eastern area via interregional trade. Heilongjiang is the largest farm land and water supplier, in contrast to Shanghai as the largest receiver. The results help policy makers to comprehensively understand embodied farm land and water flows in a complex economy network. Improving resource utilization efficiency and reshaping the embodied resource trade nexus should be addressed by considering the transfer of regional responsibilities.

  13. Modelling land use/cover changes with markov-cellular automata in Komering Watershed, South Sumatera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kusratmoko, E.; Albertus, S. D. Y.; Supriatna

    2017-01-01

    This research has a purpose to study and develop a model that can representing and simulating spatial distribution pattern of land use change in Komering watershed. The Komering watershed is one of nine sub Musi river basin and is located in the southern part of Sumatra island that has an area of 8060,62 km2. Land use change simulations, achieved through Markov-cellular automata (CA) methodologies. Slope, elevation, distance from road, distance from river, distance from capital sub-district, distance from settlement area area were driving factors that used in this research. Land use prediction result in 2030 also shows decrease of forest acreage up to -3.37%, agricultural land decreased up to -2.13%, and open land decreased up to -0.13%. On the other hand settlement area increased up to 0.07%, and plantation land increased up to 5.56%. Based on the predictive result, land use unconformity percentage to RTRW in Komering watershed is 18.62 % and land use conformity is 58.27%. Based on the results of the scenario, where forest in protected areas and agriculture land are maintained, shows increase the land use conformity amounted to 60.41 % and reduce unconformity that occur in Komering watershed to 17.23 %.

  14. TREATY OF GUADALUPE HIDALGO: Definition and List of Community Land Grants in New Mexico. Exposure Draft

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    2001-01-01

    .... In New Mexico, these land grants fulfilled several purposes: to encourage settlement, reward patrons of the Spanish government, and create a buffer zone to separate hostile Native American tribes from the more populated regions of New Spain...

  15. The role of communities in sustainable land and forest management: The case of Nyanga, Zvimba and Guruve districts of Zimbabwe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Matsvange

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Forest benefit analysis is vital in ensuring sustainable community-based natural resources management. Forest depletion and degradation are key issues in rural Zimbabwe and strategies to enhance sustainable forest management are continually sought. This study was carried out to assess the impact of forests on communities from Nyanga, Guruve and Zvimba districts of Zimbabwe. It is based on a Big Lottery Fund project implemented by Progressio-UK and Environment Africa. Itfocuses on identifying replicable community forest and landmanagement strategies and the level of benefits accruing to the community. Analysis of change was based on the Income and Food Security and Forest benefits, which also constitutes the tools used during the research. The study confirms the high rate of deforestation and the increased realisation by communities to initiate practical measures aimed at protecting and sustaining forest and land resources from which they derive economic and social benefits. The results highlight the value of community structures (Farmer Field Schools and Environmental Action Groups as conduits for natural resource management. The interconnectivity among forests, agricultural systems and the integral role of people are recognised as key to climate change adaptation. Keywords: Forest benefits; sustainability,;livelihoods; farmer field schools

  16. TREATY OF GUADALUPE HIDALGO: Definition and List of Community Land Grants in New Mexico. Exposure Draft

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-01-01

    grant would receive individual parcels of land designated for dwelling (solar de casa ) and growing food (suerte). Unlike the common lands, these...Sandoval Casa Colorado (Town of) 1823 Socorro Cebolla (Juan Carlos Santistevan) 1846 Taos Domingo Fernández (Ethan W. Eaton; Pueblo de San Cristóbal...Sevilleta (La Joya) 1819 Socorro Socorro (Town of) 1817 Socorro Tierra Amarilla 1832 Río Arriba Town of Abiquiú 1754 Río Arriba Town of Albuquerque 1706

  17. Toward an ultra-high resolution community climate system model for the BlueGene platform

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dennis, John M; Jacob, Robert; Vertenstein, Mariana; Craig, Tony; Loy, Raymond

    2007-01-01

    Global climate models need to simulate several small, regional-scale processes which affect the global circulation in order to accurately simulate the climate. This is particularly important in the ocean where small scale features such as oceanic eddies are currently represented with adhoc parameterizations. There is also a need for higher resolution to provide climate predictions at small, regional scales. New high-performance computing platforms such as the IBM BlueGene can provide the necessary computational power to perform ultra-high resolution climate model integrations. We have begun to investigate the scaling of the individual components of the Community Climate System Model to prepare it for integrations on BlueGene and similar platforms. Our investigations show that it is possible to successfully utilize O(32K) processors. We describe the scalability of five models: the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), the Community Ice CodE (CICE), the Community Land Model (CLM), and the new CCSM sequential coupler (CPL7) which are components of the next generation Community Climate System Model (CCSM); as well as the High-Order Method Modeling Environment (HOMME) which is a dynamical core currently being evaluated within the Community Atmospheric Model. For our studies we concentrate on 1/10 0 resolution for CICE, POP, and CLM models and 1/4 0 resolution for HOMME. The ability to simulate high resolutions on the massively parallel petascale systems that will dominate high-performance computing for the foreseeable future is essential to the advancement of climate science

  18. A window of opportunities : the contributions of land use modelling to societal learning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sterk, B.

    2007-01-01

    It has been argued that the management of land, whether at the field, farm or regional scale, can benefit from computer-based land use system analysis. As a result, a large number of computer-based models and tools have been produced over the past decades with the aim of providing support to policy

  19. An economic theory-based explanatory model of agricultural land-use patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diogo, V.; Koomen, E.; Kuhlman, T.

    2015-01-01

    An economic theory-based land-use modelling framework is presented aiming to explain the causal link between economic decisions and resulting spatial patterns of agricultural land use. The framework assumes that farmers pursue utility maximisation in agricultural production systems, while

  20. Decision analysis and risk models for land development affecting infrastructure systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thekdi, Shital A; Lambert, James H

    2012-07-01

    Coordination and layering of models to identify risks in complex systems such as large-scale infrastructure of energy, water, and transportation is of current interest across application domains. Such infrastructures are increasingly vulnerable to adjacent commercial and residential land development. Land development can compromise the performance of essential infrastructure systems and increase the costs of maintaining or increasing performance. A risk-informed approach to this topic would be useful to avoid surprise, regret, and the need for costly remedies. This article develops a layering and coordination of models for risk management of land development affecting infrastructure systems. The layers are: system identification, expert elicitation, predictive modeling, comparison of investment alternatives, and implications of current decisions for future options. The modeling layers share a focus on observable factors that most contribute to volatility of land development and land use. The relevant data and expert evidence include current and forecasted growth in population and employment, conservation and preservation rules, land topography and geometries, real estate assessments, market and economic conditions, and other factors. The approach integrates to a decision framework of strategic considerations based on assessing risk, cost, and opportunity in order to prioritize needs and potential remedies that mitigate impacts of land development to the infrastructure systems. The approach is demonstrated for a 5,700-mile multimodal transportation system adjacent to 60,000 tracts of potential land development. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

  1. Calibration and validation of land-use models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van J.

    2013-01-01

    Land use is constantly changing. For example, urban areas expand as a result of population growth, cropping patterns change to fulfil the demand for bioenergy and natural vegetation recovers in locations where farmers cease to farm. Understanding these changes is pivotal to explore future

  2. Using exploratory regression to identify optimal driving factors for cellular automaton modeling of land use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Yongjiu; Tong, Xiaohua

    2017-09-22

    Defining transition rules is an important issue in cellular automaton (CA)-based land use modeling because these models incorporate highly correlated driving factors. Multicollinearity among correlated driving factors may produce negative effects that must be eliminated from the modeling. Using exploratory regression under pre-defined criteria, we identified all possible combinations of factors from the candidate factors affecting land use change. Three combinations that incorporate five driving factors meeting pre-defined criteria were assessed. With the selected combinations of factors, three logistic regression-based CA models were built to simulate dynamic land use change in Shanghai, China, from 2000 to 2015. For comparative purposes, a CA model with all candidate factors was also applied to simulate the land use change. Simulations using three CA models with multicollinearity eliminated performed better (with accuracy improvements about 3.6%) than the model incorporating all candidate factors. Our results showed that not all candidate factors are necessary for accurate CA modeling and the simulations were not sensitive to changes in statistically non-significant driving factors. We conclude that exploratory regression is an effective method to search for the optimal combinations of driving factors, leading to better land use change models that are devoid of multicollinearity. We suggest identification of dominant factors and elimination of multicollinearity before building land change models, making it possible to simulate more realistic outcomes.

  3. Keep Talking & Monitoring: the importance of longitudinal research & community-based monitoring to support sustainable land management in southern Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dougill, Andrew; Stringer, Lindsay

    2015-04-01

    Projects come and go with researchers, development practioners and government staff initiating new forms of community engagement in environmental monitoring and land management practices. We analyse interventions from Botswana and Swaziland and highlight that for benefits to be long-lived and lead to sustainable land management, requires community engagement in project design, implementation and for project outputs to be used in developing community-led environmental monitoring tools that can then help to guide local decision-making systems. We stress the vital importance of continued participatory engagement of researchers with community leaders and key government staff beyond the timeframe of their initial research such that longitudinal research approaches can realise significant benefits to all concerned. In dynamic (non-equilibrium) dryland environments, it is vitally important that research approaches address temporal and spatial variability by mapping patterns of change, using a range of participatory tools to enhance understandings of the causes of land degradation and the opportunities for shifts towards more sustainable land management. Decision-support tools, such as rangeland assessment guides produced for various Kalahari rangeland settings in Botswana (via a UNEP project and affiliated research), provide opportunities to support more sustainable land management. However, at present benefits are not being fully realised as project and research staff move on after projects end. Similarly, findings from mixed farming systems in Swaziland (assessing a JICA-funded project) show problems in maintaining new institutional structures to manage rangeland degradation, whilst issues on arable areas associated with parasitic weeds (Striga asiatica) remain problematic. Findings from longitudinal research in Swaziland also show that community understandings of environmental problems have evolved over 10 years and identify new problems associated with intensified

  4. Impact of Soil Moisture Assimilation on Land Surface Model Spin-Up and Coupled LandAtmosphere Prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.; Kumar, Sujay V.; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Lawston, P.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in satellite monitoring of the terrestrial water cycle have led to a concerted effort to assimilate soil moisture observations from various platforms into offline land surface models (LSMs). One principal but still open question is that of the ability of land data assimilation (LDA) to improve LSM initial conditions for coupled short-term weather prediction. In this study, the impact of assimilating Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) soil moisture retrievals on coupled WRF Model forecasts is examined during the summers of dry (2006) and wet (2007) surface conditions in the southern Great Plains. LDA is carried out using NASAs Land Information System (LIS) and the Noah LSM through an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) approach. The impacts of LDA on the 1) soil moisture and soil temperature initial conditions for WRF, 2) land-atmosphere coupling characteristics, and 3) ambient weather of the coupled LIS-WRF simulations are then assessed. Results show that impacts of soil moisture LDA during the spin-up can significantly modify LSM states and fluxes, depending on regime and season. Results also indicate that the use of seasonal cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) is more advantageous compared to the traditional annual CDF bias correction strategies. LDA performs consistently regardless of atmospheric forcing applied, with greater improvements seen when using coarser, global forcing products. Downstream impacts on coupled simulations vary according to the strength of the LDA impact at the initialization, where significant modifications to the soil moisture flux- PBL-ambient weather process chain are observed. Overall, this study demonstrates potential for future, higher-resolution soil moisture assimilation applications in weather and climate research.

  5. Scenario modelling of land use/land cover changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kindu, Mengistie; Schneider, Thomas; Döllerer, Martin; Teketay, Demel; Knoke, Thomas

    2018-05-01

    Models under a set of scenarios are used to simulate and improve our understanding of land use/land cover (LULC) changes, which is central for sustainable management of a given natural resource. In this study, we simulated and examined the possible future LULC patterns and changes in Munessa-Shashemene landscape of the Ethiopian highlands covering four decades (2012-2050) using a spatially explicit GIS-based model. Both primary and secondary sources were utilized to identify relevant explanatory variables (drivers) and LULC datasets for the model. Three alternative scenarios, namely Business As Usual (BAU), Forest Conservation and Water Protection (FCWP) and Sustainable Intensification (SI) were used. The simulated LULC map of 2012 was compared with the actual for model validation and showed a good consistency. The results revealed that areas of croplands will increase widely under the BAU scenario and would expand to the remaining woodlands, natural forests and grasslands, reflecting vulnerability of these LULC types and potential loss of associated ecosystem service values (ESVs). FCWP scenario would bring competition among other LULC types, particularly more pressure to the grassland ecosystem. Hence, the two scenarios will result in severe LULC dynamics that lead to serious environmental crisis. The SI scenario, with holistic approach, demonstrated that expansion of croplands could vigorously be reduced, remaining forests better conserved and degraded land recovered, resulting in gains of the associated total ESVs. We conclude that a holistic landscape management, i.e. SI, is the best approach to ensure expected production while safeguarding the environment of the studied landscape and elsewhere with similar geographic settings. Further study is suggested to practically test our framework through a research for development approach in a test site so that it can be used as a model area for effective use and conservation of our natural resources. Copyright

  6. Biofuels and Land Use Change: Applying Recent Evidence to Model Estimates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wallace E. Tyner

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Biofuels impact on global land use has been a controversial yet important topic. Up until recently, there has not been enough biofuels to have caused major land use change, so the evidence from actual global land use data has been scant. However, in the past decade, there have been 72 million hectares added to global crop cover. In this research we take advantage of this new data to calibrate the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP model and parameters. We make two major changes. First, we calibrate the land transformation parameters (called constant elasticity of transformation, CET to global regions so that the parameters better reflect the actual land cover change that has occurred. Second, we alter the land cover nesting structure. In the old GTAP model, cropland, pasture, and forest were all in the same nest suggesting, everything else being equal, that pasture or forest convert to cropland with equal ease and cost. However, we now take advantage of the fact that pasture converts to cropland at lower cost than forest. The paper provides the theoretical and empirical justification for these two model improvements. Then it re-evaluates the global land use impacts due to the USA ethanol program using the improved model tuned with actual observations. Finally, it shows that compared to the old model, the new model projects: (1 less expansion in global cropland due to ethanol expansion; (2 lower U.S. share in global cropland expansion; (3 and lower forest share in global cropland expansion.

  7. A Framework for the Land Use Change Dynamics Model Compatible with RCMs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiangzheng Deng

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available A framework of land use change dynamics (LUCD model compatible with regional climate models (RCMs is introduced in this paper. The LUCD model can be subdivided into three modules, namely, economic module, vegetation change module, and agent-based module. The economic module is capable of estimating the demand of land use changes in economic activities maximizing economic utility. A computable general equilibrium (CGE modeling framework is introduced and an approach to introduce land as a production factor into the economic module is proposed. The vegetation change module provides the probability of vegetation change driven by climate change. The agroecological zone (AEZ model is supposed to be the optimal option for constructing the vegetation change module. The agent-based module identifies whether the land use change demand and vegetation change can be realized and provides the land use change simulation results which are the underlying surfaces needed by RCM. By importing the RCMs' simulation results of climate change and providing the simulation results of land use change for RCMs, the LUCD model would be compatible with RCMs. The coupled simulation system composed of LUCD and RCMs can be very effective in simulating the land surface processes and their changing patterns.

  8. Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections: a global-scale model comparison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prestele, Reinhard; Alexander, Peter; Rounsevell, Mark D A; Arneth, Almut; Calvin, Katherine; Doelman, Jonathan; Eitelberg, David A; Engström, Kerstin; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Havlik, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Jain, Atul K; Krisztin, Tamás; Kyle, Page; Meiyappan, Prasanth; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald D; Schaldach, Rüdiger; Schüngel, Jan; Stehfest, Elke; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van Vliet, Jasper; Verburg, Peter H

    2016-12-01

    Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC

  9. An open and extensible framework for spatially explicit land use change modelling in R: the lulccR package (0.1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moulds, S.; Buytaert, W.; Mijic, A.

    2015-04-01

    Land use change has important consequences for biodiversity and the sustainability of ecosystem services, as well as for global environmental change. Spatially explicit land use change models improve our understanding of the processes driving change and make predictions about the quantity and location of future and past change. Here we present the lulccR package, an object-oriented framework for land use change modelling written in the R programming language. The contribution of the work is to resolve the following limitations associated with the current land use change modelling paradigm: (1) the source code for model implementations is frequently unavailable, severely compromising the reproducibility of scientific results and making it impossible for members of the community to improve or adapt models for their own purposes; (2) ensemble experiments to capture model structural uncertainty are difficult because of fundamental differences between implementations of different models; (3) different aspects of the modelling procedure must be performed in different environments because existing applications usually only perform the spatial allocation of change. The package includes a stochastic ordered allocation procedure as well as an implementation of the widely used CLUE-S algorithm. We demonstrate its functionality by simulating land use change at the Plum Island Ecosystems site, using a dataset included with the package. It is envisaged that lulccR will enable future model development and comparison within an open environment.

  10. Modelling Interactions between Land Use, Climate, and Hydrology along with Stakeholders’ Negotiation for Water Resources Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Babak Farjad

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper describes the main functionalities of an integrated framework to model the interactions between land use, climate, and hydrology along with stakeholders’ negotiation. Its novelty lies in the combination of individual-based and spatially distributed models within the Socio-Hydrology paradigm to capture the complexity and uncertainty inherent to these systems. It encompasses a land-use/land-cover cellular automata model, an agent-based model used for automated stakeholders’ negotiation, and the hydrological MIKE SHE/MIKE 11 model, which are linked and can be accessed through a web-based interface. It enables users to run simulations to explore a wide range of scenarios related to land development and water resource management while considering the reciprocal influence of human and natural systems. This framework was developed with the involvement of key stakeholders from the initial design stage to the final demonstration and validation.

  11. Potential Economic and Development Prospects of Non Timber Forest Products in Community Agroforestry Land around Sibolangit Tourism Park

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oding Affandi

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The communities who live around Sibolangit Tourism Park have developed nontimber forest products (NTFP in their own agroforestry lands. This research evaluates the potential economic and development prospects from NTFP development in the Park by examining: (1 type of NTFP and economic value from community agrofrestry land, (2 contribution of NTFPs on household income, (3 development prospects of NTFP-based agroforestry around Sibolangit Tourism Park. The research was conducted in two selected villages around Sibolangit Tourism Park: Sembahe Village and Batu Mbelin Village. The research took place over a period between June and August 2016. Research data was obtained from in-depth interviews and observations. A descriptive method was used to analyze and describe facts related to the research aims. The type of NTFPs cultivated by communities at the research sites include mangosteen, durian, garcinia, candlenut, lanzones, lansium, bitter bean, and areca nut (as their forestry component and ginger, turmeric, chili, papaya, etlingera, and banana (as the agriculture component. Most NTFPs are cultivated as a comercial product. The economic value of NTFPs in Batu Mbelin Village has reached Rp. 547,275,000/year or contribute 80.07% of total family income. Meanwhile, the economic value of NTFPs in Sembahe Village has reached Rp 682,100,000/year, contributing to 78.75% of total household income. Therefore, the prospects for supporting and expanding NTFP in agroforestry plots in and around Sibolangit Tourism Park has high potential for supporting household income

  12. Gut bacterial communities in the giant land snail Achatina fulica and their modification by sugarcane-based diet.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardoso, Alexander M; Cavalcante, Janaína J V; Vieira, Ricardo P; Lima, Joyce L; Grieco, Maria Angela B; Clementino, Maysa M; Vasconcelos, Ana Tereza R; Garcia, Eloi S; de Souza, Wanderley; Albano, Rodolpho M; Martins, Orlando B

    2012-01-01

    The invasive land snail Achatina fulica is one of the most damaging agricultural pests worldwide representing a potentially serious threat to natural ecosystems and human health. This species is known to carry parasites and harbors a dense and metabolically active microbial community; however, little is known about its diversity and composition. Here, we assessed for the first time the complexity of bacterial communities occurring in the digestive tracts of field-collected snails (FC) by using culture-independent molecular analysis. Crop and intestinal bacteria in FC were then compared to those from groups of snails that were reared in the laboratory (RL) on a sugarcane-based diet. Most of the sequences recovered were novel and related to those reported for herbivorous gut. Changes in the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes were observed when the snails were fed a high-sugar diet, suggesting that the snail gut microbiota can influence the energy balance equation. Furthermore, this study represents a first step in gaining a better understanding of land snail gut microbiota and shows that this is a complex holobiont system containing diverse, abundant and active microbial communities.

  13. Gut bacterial communities in the giant land snail Achatina fulica and their modification by sugarcane-based diet.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexander M Cardoso

    Full Text Available The invasive land snail Achatina fulica is one of the most damaging agricultural pests worldwide representing a potentially serious threat to natural ecosystems and human health. This species is known to carry parasites and harbors a dense and metabolically active microbial community; however, little is known about its diversity and composition. Here, we assessed for the first time the complexity of bacterial communities occurring in the digestive tracts of field-collected snails (FC by using culture-independent molecular analysis. Crop and intestinal bacteria in FC were then compared to those from groups of snails that were reared in the laboratory (RL on a sugarcane-based diet. Most of the sequences recovered were novel and related to those reported for herbivorous gut. Changes in the relative abundance of Bacteroidetes and Firmicutes were observed when the snails were fed a high-sugar diet, suggesting that the snail gut microbiota can influence the energy balance equation. Furthermore, this study represents a first step in gaining a better understanding of land snail gut microbiota and shows that this is a complex holobiont system containing diverse, abundant and active microbial communities.

  14. Tropical Land Use Conversion Effects on Soil Microbial Community Structure and Function: Emerging Patterns and Knowledge Gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seeley, M.; Marin-Spiotta, E.

    2016-12-01

    Modifications in vegetation due to land use conversions (LUC) between primary forests, pasture, cropping systems, tree plantations, and secondary forests drive shifts in soil microbial communities. These microbial community alterations affect carbon sequestration, nutrient cycling, aboveground biomass, and numerous other soil processes. Despite their importance, little is known about soil microbial organisms' response to LUC, especially in tropical regions where LUC rates are greatest. This project identifies current trends and uncertainties in tropical soil microbiology by comparing 56 published studies on LUC in tropical regions. This review indicates that microbial biomass and functional groups shifted in response to LUC, supporting demonstrated trends in changing soil carbon stocks due to LUC. Microbial biomass was greatest in primary forests when compared to secondary forests and in all forests when compared to both cropping systems and tree plantations. No trend existed when comparing pasture systems and forests, likely due to variations in pasture fertilizer use. Cropping system soils had greater gram positive and less gram negative bacteria than forest soils, potentially resulting in greater respiration of older carbon stocks in agricultural soils. Bacteria dominated primary forests while fungal populations were greatest in secondary forests. To characterize changes in microbial communities resulting from land use change, research must reflect the biophysical variation across the tropics. A chi-squared test revealed that the literature sites represented mean annual temperature variation across the tropics (p-value=0.66).

  15. Soil microbial community structure in diverse land use systems:A comparative study using Biolog,DGGE,and PLFA analyses

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XUE Dong; YAO Huai-Ying; GE De-Yong; HUANG Chang-Yong

    2008-01-01

    Biolog,16S rRNA gene denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE),and phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analyses were used to assess soil microbial community characteristics in a chronosequence of tea garden systems (8-,50-,and 90year-old tea gardens),an adjacent wasteland,and a 90-year-old forest.Biolog analysis showed that the average well color development (AWCD) of all carbon sources and the functional diversity based on the Shannon index decreased (P<0.05)in the following order:wasteland>forest>tea garden.For the DGGE analysis,the genetic diversity based on the Shannon index was significantly lower in the tea garden soils than in the wasteland.However,compared to the 90-year-old forest,the tea garden soils showed significantly higher genetic diversity.PLFA analysis showed that the ratio of Gram positive bacteria to Gram negative bacteria was significantly higher in the tea garden soils than in the wasteland,and the highest value was found in the 90-year-old forest.Both the fungal PLFA and the ratio of fungi to bacteria were significantly higher in the three tea garden soils than in the wasteland and forest,indicating that fungal PLFA was significantly affected by land-use change.Based on cluster analysis of the soil microbial community structure,all three analytical methods showed that land-use change had a greater effect on soil microbial community structure than tea garden age.

  16. Mapping earthworm communities in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rutgers, M.; Orgiazzi, A.; Gardi, C.; Römbke, J.; Jansch, S.; Keith, A.; Neilson, R.; Boag, B.; Schmidt, O.; Murchie, A.K.; Blackshaw, R.P.; Pérès, G.; Cluzeau, D.; Guernion, M.; Briones, M.J.I.; Rodeiro, J.; Pineiro, R.; Diaz Cosin, D.J.; Sousa, J.P.; Suhadolc, M.; Kos, I.; Krogh, P.H.; Faber, J.H.; Mulder, C.; Bogte, J.J.; Wijnen, van H.J.; Schouten, A.J.; Zwart, de D.

    2016-01-01

    Existing data sets on earthworm communities in Europe were collected, harmonized, collated, modelled and depicted on a soil biodiversity map. Digital Soil Mapping was applied using multiple regressions relating relatively low density earthworm community data to soil characteristics, land use,

  17. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory: Building partnerships and developing tools to support local Tribal community response to climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, K. D.; Wee, B.; Kuslikis, A.

    2015-12-01

    Response of Tribal nations and Tribal communities to current and emerging climate change challenges requires active participation of stakeholders who have effective access to relevant data, information and analytical tools. The Tribal Lands Collaboratory (TLC), currently under development, is a joint effort between the American Indian Higher Education Consortium (AIHEC), the Environmental Systems Research Institute (Esri), and the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON). The vision of the TLC is to create an integrative platform that enables coordination between multiple stakeholders (e.g. Tribal resource managers, Tribal College faculty and students, farmers, ranchers, and other local community members) to collaborate on locally relevant climate change issues. The TLC is intended to facilitate the transformation of data into actionable information that can inform local climate response planning. The TLC will provide the technical mechanisms to access, collect and analyze data from both internal and external sources (e.g. NASA's Giovanni climate data portal, Ameriflux or USA National Phenology Network) while also providing the social scaffolds to enable collaboration across Tribal communities and with members of the national climate change research community. The prototype project focuses on phenology, a branch of science focused on relationships between climate and the seasonal timing of biological phenomena. Monitoring changes in the timing and duration of phenological stages in plant and animal co­­­­mmunities on Tribal lands can provide insight to the direct impacts of climate change on culturally and economically significant Tribal resources . The project will leverage existing phenological observation protocols created by the USA-National Phenology Network and NEON to direct data collection efforts and will be tailored to the specific needs and concerns of the community. Phenology observations will be captured and managed within the Collaboratory

  18. ANALYSIS OF LAND RESOURCES SUITABILITY BY FUNCTIONAL MODEL IN EASTERN CROATIA REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir Vukadinović

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available A total of 17405 soil samples (2003rd-2009th years were analyzed in the eastern part of Croatia. The aim of this paper is to assess land suitability for crops i.e. to describe quantitatively land quality and indicate disadvantages of land using system in investigated area. The described mathematical model uses score functions for estimating indicators of soil suitability. Soil suitability assessment computer model for crops, supported by GIS, proved to be fast, efficient and enough reliable. Using GIS tool it is possible to visualize land suitability and present it in different cartographic bases such as maps whereas using geostatistical method – kriging enables to possible to provide regionalization of production area based on quantitative assessment of land suitability for crops.

  19. On land-use modeling: A treatise of satellite imagery data and misclassification error

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandler, Austin M.

    Recent availability of satellite-based land-use data sets, including data sets with contiguous spatial coverage over large areas, relatively long temporal coverage, and fine-scale land cover classifications, is providing new opportunities for land-use research. However, care must be used when working with these datasets due to misclassification error, which causes inconsistent parameter estimates in the discrete choice models typically used to model land-use. I therefore adapt the empirical correction methods developed for other contexts (e.g., epidemiology) so that they can be applied to land-use modeling. I then use a Monte Carlo simulation, and an empirical application using actual satellite imagery data from the Northern Great Plains, to compare the results of a traditional model ignoring misclassification to those from models accounting for misclassification. Results from both the simulation and application indicate that ignoring misclassification will lead to biased results. Even seemingly insignificant levels of misclassification error (e.g., 1%) result in biased parameter estimates, which alter marginal effects enough to affect policy inference. At the levels of misclassification typical in current satellite imagery datasets (e.g., as high as 35%), ignoring misclassification can lead to systematically erroneous land-use probabilities and substantially biased marginal effects. The correction methods I propose, however, generate consistent parameter estimates and therefore consistent estimates of marginal effects and predicted land-use probabilities.

  20. Drought, Fire and Insects in Western US Forests: Observations to Improve Regional Land System Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, B. E.; Yang, Z.; Berner, L. T.; Hicke, J. A.; Buotte, P.; Hudiburg, T. W.

    2015-12-01

    Drought, fire and insects are major disturbances in the western US, and conditions are expected to get warmer and drier in the future. We combine multi-scale observations and modeling with CLM4.5 to examine the effects of these disturbances on forests in the western US. We modified the Community Land Model, CLM4.5, to improve simulated drought-related mortality in forests, and prediction of insect outbreaks under future climate conditions. We examined differences in plant traits that represent species variation in sensitivity to drought, and redefined plant groupings in PFTs. Plant traits, including sapwood area: leaf area ratio and stemwood density were strongly correlated with water availability during the ecohydrologic year. Our database of co-located observations of traits for 30 tree species was used to produce parameterization of the model by species groupings according to similar traits. Burn area predicted by the new fire model in CLM4.5 compares well with recent years of GFED data, but has a positive bias compared with Landsat-based MTBS. Biomass mortality over recent decades increased, and was captured well by the model in general, but missed mortality trends of some species. Comparisons with AmeriFlux data showed that the model with dynamic tree mortality only (no species trait improvements) overestimated GPP in dry years compared with flux data at semi-arid sites, and underestimated GPP at more mesic sites that experience dry summers. Simulations with both dynamic tree mortality and species trait parameters improved estimates of GPP by 17-22%; differences between predicted and observed NEE were larger. Future projections show higher productivity from increased atmospheric CO2 and warming that somewhat offsets drought and fire effects over the next few decades. Challenges include representation of hydraulic failure in models, and availability of species trait and carbon/water process data in disturbance- and drought-impacted regions.

  1. Recent Progresses in Incorporating Human Land-Water Management into Global Land Surface Models Toward Their Integration into Earth System Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokhrel, Yadu N.; Hanasaki, Naota; Wada, Yoshihide; Kim, Hyungjun

    2016-01-01

    The global water cycle has been profoundly affected by human land-water management. As the changes in the water cycle on land can affect the functioning of a wide range of biophysical and biogeochemical processes of the Earth system, it is essential to represent human land-water management in Earth system models (ESMs). During the recent past, noteworthy progress has been made in large-scale modeling of human impacts on the water cycle but sufficient advancements have not yet been made in integrating the newly developed schemes into ESMs. This study reviews the progresses made in incorporating human factors in large-scale hydrological models and their integration into ESMs. The study focuses primarily on the recent advancements and existing challenges in incorporating human impacts in global land surface models (LSMs) as a way forward to the development of ESMs with humans as integral components, but a brief review of global hydrological models (GHMs) is also provided. The study begins with the general overview of human impacts on the water cycle. Then, the algorithms currently employed to represent irrigation, reservoir operation, and groundwater pumping are discussed. Next, methodological deficiencies in current modeling approaches and existing challenges are identified. Furthermore, light is shed on the sources of uncertainties associated with model parameterizations, grid resolution, and datasets used for forcing and validation. Finally, representing human land-water management in LSMs is highlighted as an important research direction toward developing integrated models using ESM frameworks for the holistic study of human-water interactions within the Earths system.

  2. Predicting land use change on a broad area: Dyna-CLUE model application to the Litorale Domizio-Agro Aversano (Campania, South Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefania Pindozzi

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The long-standing awareness of the environmental impact of land-use change (LUC has led scientific community to develop tools able to predict their amount and to evaluate their effect on environment, with the aim supporting policy makers in their planning activities. This paper proposes an implementation of the Dyna-CLUE (Dynamic Conversion of Land Use and its Effects model applied to the Litorale Domizio-Agro Aversano, an area of Campania region, which needs interventions for environmental remediation. Future land use changes were simulated in two different scenarios developed under alternative strategies of land management: scenario 1 is a simple projection of the recent LUC trend, while scenario 2 hypothesises the introduction of no-food crops, such as poplar (Populus nigra L. and giant reed (Arundo donax L., in addition to a less impactful urban sprawl, which is one of the main issues in the study area. The overall duration of simulations was 13 years, subdivided into yearly time steps. CORINE land cover map of 2006 was used as baseline for land use change detection in the study area. Competition between different land use types is taken into account by setting the conversion elasticity, a parameter ranging from 0 to 1, according to their capital investment level. Location suitability for each land use type is based on logit model. Since no actual land use already exists for the alternative crops investigated in scenario 2, a suitability map realised through a spatial multicriteria decision analysis was used as a proxy for its land use pattern. The comparison of the land use in 2012 and scenario 1, evaluated through the application of Kappa statistics, showed a general tendency to expansion of built-up areas, with an increase of about 2400 ha (1.5% of the total surface, at the expense of agricultural land and those covered by natural vegetation. The comparison of the land use in 2012 and scenario 2 showed a less significant spread of built

  3. [Edge effect of the plant community structure on land-bridge islands in the Thousand Island Lake].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Xiao-Fei; Yuan, Jin-Feng; Hu, Guang; Xu, Gao-Fu; Yu, Ming-Jian

    2014-01-01

    The research was conducted on 29 land-bridge islands in the Thousand Island Lake (TIL), where long-term monitoring plots were set up during 2009-2010. The community attributes including species richness, Shannon index, plant mean height, plant mean diameter at breast height (DBH) and plant density along the edge-interior gradient from edge to interior forest were calculated to investigate the edge effect. The results showed that the species richness and Shannon index were affected through the whole gradient (larger than 50 m), while the range of edge effect was 20-30 m on mean plant height, and 10 m on plant density and mean DBH. Community attributes differed significantly among the edge gradients. The species richness and Shannon index peaked at the intermediate edge gradient. Plant density decreased and plant mean height increased along the edge to interior gradient. All five community attributes were significantly associated with the edge gradient, also different functional groups, evergreen or deciduous species, trees or shrubs, shade tolerant or shade intolerant species, were differentially influenced by the edge effect. It was demonstrated the influence of edge effect on the fragmented forest community varied with community attributes and functional groups.

  4. Effect of the recent land use on the plant diversity and community structure of Omayed Biosphere Reserve, Egypt

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dalia A. Ahmed

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The present study aims at describing and analysing the floristic composition and vegetation types, as well as determining the effect of recent land uses on the vegetation structure. It aims also at identifying the alien plants species and elucidating the impact of these species on the plant diversity and community structure of the study area. One hundred and ninety stands were selected monthly for this study, 145 species were recorded (69 perennials and 76 annuals related to 83 genera, 40 families in 9 identified habitats in El-Omayed Biosphere Reserve (coastal sand dunes, salt marshes, saline depression, non-saline depression, inland ridges, inland plateau, irrigation canals, road sides and cultivated lands. Therophytes were the most represented life form. Three habitat groups resulted after the application of TWINSPAN and DCA as classification and ordination techniques: 2 represented the natural habitats and one represented the urban and cultivated habitats. Group I represented coastal dunes and salt marshes GII: saline depressions, non-saline depressions, inland plateau and inland ridges and GIII: irrigation canals, road sides and cultivated lands. Coastal dunes had the highest species richness (α-diversity, followed by cultivated lands, while inland plateau had the lowest; but saline depressions had the highest species turnover (β-diversity. Non-saline depressions had the highest relative evenness, while saline depressions had the highest relative concentration of dominance. Coastal dunes had highest values of calcium carbonates and calcium ions, and salt marshes had the highest salinity, pH, potassium and sodium contents, but cultivated lands had the highest values of silt, clay and organic matter. The diagram resulting from CCA showed an influence of most soil variables, except nitrogen, calcium and potassium. Twenty two species were recorded for the first time in the study area. The recent land use (overgrazing, wood cutting and

  5. Land use change and prediction in the Baimahe Basin using GIS and CA-Markov model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Shixu; Zhang, Zulu; Wang, Xue

    2014-01-01

    Using ArcGIS and IDRISI, land use dynamics and Shannon entropy information were applied in this paper to analyze the quantity and structure change in the Baimahe Basin from 1996 to 2008. A CA-Markov model was applied to predict the land use patterns in 2020. Results showed that farmland, forest and construction land are the dominant land use types in the Baimahe Basin. From 1996 to 2008, areas of farmland and forest decreased and other land use types increased, with construction land increasing the most. The prediction results showed that the changes in land use patterns from 2008 to 2020 would be the same with those from 1996 to 2008. Main changes are the transiting out of farmland and forest and the transiting in of construction land. The order degree of the whole basin goes on decreasing. Measures of farmland protection and grain for green projects should be adopted to enhance the stability of land use system in the Baimahe Basin in order to promote regional sustainable development

  6. Watershed-Scale Modeling of Land-Use and Altered Environment Impacts on Aquatic Weed Growth in the Delta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bubenheim, David; Potter, Christopher; Zhang, Minghua

    2016-01-01

    The California Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta is the hub for California's water supply, conveying water from Northern to Southern California agriculture and communities while supporting important ecosystem services, agriculture, and communities in the Delta. Changes in climate, long-term drought, and water quality have all been suspected as playing role in the dramatic expansion of invasive aquatic plants and their impact on ecosystems of the San Francisco Bay / California Delta complex. NASA Ames Research Center, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, the State of California, UC Davis, and local governments have partnered under a USDA sponsored project (DRAAWP) to develop science-based, adaptive-management strategies for invasive aquatic plants in Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Critical to developing management strategies is to understand how the Delta is affected by both the magnitude of fluctuations in land-use and climate / drought induced altered environments and how the plants respond to these altered environments. We utilize the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a watershed-scale model developed to quantify the impact of land management practices in large and complex watersheds on water quality, as the backbone for a customized Delta model - Delta-SWAT. The model uses land-use, soils, elevation, and hydrologic routing to characterize pesticide and nutrient transport from the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers watersheds and loading into the Delta. Land-use within the Delta, as well as water extraction to supply those functions, and the resulting return of water to Delta waterways are included in Delta-SWAT. Hydrologic transport within the Delta has required significant attention to address the lack of elevation driven transport processes. Delta-SWAT water quality trend estimates are compared with water quality monitoring conducted throughout the Delta. Aquatic plant response to water quality and other environmental factors is carried out using a customized

  7. Land-Use Change Modelling in the Upper Blue Nile Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seleshi G. Yalew

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Land-use and land-cover changes are driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at different scales. This study was aimed at identifying the potential land-use drivers in the Jedeb catchment of the Abbay basin by combining statistical analysis, field investigation and remote sensing. To do so, a land-use change model was calibrated and evaluated using the SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environment modelling framework. SITE is cellular automata based multi-criteria decision analysis framework for simulating land-use conversion based on socio-economic and environmental factors. Past land-use trajectories (1986–2009 were evaluated using a reference Landsat-derived map (agreement of 84%. Results show that major land-use change drivers in the study area were population, slope, livestock and distances from various infrastructures (roads, markets and water. It was also found that farmers seem to increasingly prefer plantations of trees such as Eucalyptus by replacing croplands perhaps mainly due to declining crop yield, soil fertility and climate variability. Potential future trajectory of land-use change was also predicted under a business-as-usual scenario (2009–2025. Results show that agricultural land will continue to expand from 69.5% in 2009 to 77.5% in 2025 in the catchment albeit at a declining rate when compared with the period from 1986 to 2009. Plantation forest will also increase at a much higher rate, mainly at the expense of natural vegetation, agricultural land and grasslands. This study provides critical information to land-use planners and policy makers for a more effective and proactive management in this highland catchment.

  8. Bayesian spatial modelling and the significance of agricultural land use to scrub typhus infection in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wardrop, Nicola A; Kuo, Chi-Chien; Wang, Hsi-Chieh; Clements, Archie C A; Lee, Pei-Fen; Atkinson, Peter M

    2013-11-01

    Scrub typhus is transmitted by the larval stage of trombiculid mites. Environmental factors, including land cover and land use, are known to influence breeding and survival of trombiculid mites and, thus, also the spatial heterogeneity of scrub typhus risk. Here, a spatially autoregressive modelling framework was applied to scrub typhus incidence data from Taiwan, covering the period 2003 to 2011, to provide increased understanding of the spatial pattern of scrub typhus risk and the environmental and socioeconomic factors contributing to this pattern. A clear spatial pattern in scrub typhus incidence was observed within Taiwan, and incidence was found to be significantly correlated with several land cover classes, temperature, elevation, normalized difference vegetation index, rainfall, population density, average income and the proportion of the population that work in agriculture. The final multivariate regression model included statistically significant correlations between scrub typhus incidence and average income (negatively correlated), the proportion of land that contained mosaics of cropland and vegetation (positively correlated) and elevation (positively correlated). These results highlight the importance of land cover on scrub typhus incidence: mosaics of cropland and vegetation represent a transitional land cover type which can provide favourable habitats for rodents and, therefore, trombiculid mites. In Taiwan, these transitional land cover areas tend to occur in less populated and mountainous areas, following the frontier establishment and subsequent partial abandonment of agricultural cultivation, due to demographic and socioeconomic changes. Future land use policy decision-making should ensure that potential public health outcomes, such as modified risk of scrub typhus, are considered.

  9. A Generalized Deforestation and Land-Use Change Scenario Generator for Use in Climate Modelling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tompkins, Adrian Mark; Caporaso, Luca; Biondi, Riccardo; Bell, Jean Pierre

    2015-01-01

    A new deforestation and land-use change scenario generator model (FOREST-SAGE) is presented that is designed to interface directly with dynamic vegetation models used in latest generation earth system models. The model requires a regional-scale scenario for aggregate land-use change that may be time-dependent, provided by observational studies or by regional land-use change/economic models for future projections. These land-use categories of the observations/economic model are first translated into equivalent plant function types used by the particular vegetation model, and then FOREST-SAGE disaggregates the regional-scale scenario to the local grid-scale of the earth system model using a set of risk-rules based on factors such as proximity to transport networks, distance weighted population density, forest fragmentation and presence of protected areas and logging concessions. These rules presently focus on the conversion of forest to agriculture and pasture use, but could be generalized to other land use change conversions. After introducing the model, an evaluation of its performance is shown for the land-cover changes that have occurred in the Central African Basin from 2001–2010 using retrievals from MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Vegetation Continuous Field data. The model is able to broadly reproduce the spatial patterns of forest cover change observed by MODIS, and the use of the local-scale risk factors enables FOREST-SAGE to improve land use change patterns considerably relative to benchmark scenarios used in the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project integrations. The uncertainty to the various risk factors is investigated using an ensemble of investigations, and it is shown that the model is sensitive to the population density, forest fragmentation and reforestation factors specified. PMID:26394392

  10. Nitrogen dioxide concentrations in neighborhoods adjacent to a commercial airport: a land use regression modeling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adamkiewicz, Gary; Hsu, Hsiao-Hsien; Vallarino, Jose; Melly, Steven J; Spengler, John D; Levy, Jonathan I

    2010-11-17

    There is growing concern in communities surrounding airports regarding the contribution of various emission sources (such as aircraft and ground support equipment) to nearby ambient concentrations. We used extensive monitoring of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) in neighborhoods surrounding T.F. Green Airport in Warwick, RI, and land-use regression (LUR) modeling techniques to determine the impact of proximity to the airport and local traffic on these concentrations. Palmes diffusion tube samplers were deployed along the airport's fence line and within surrounding neighborhoods for one to two weeks. In total, 644 measurements were collected over three sampling campaigns (October 2007, March 2008 and June 2008) and each sampling location was geocoded. GIS-based variables were created as proxies for local traffic and airport activity. A forward stepwise regression methodology was employed to create general linear models (GLMs) of NO2 variability near the airport. The effect of local meteorology on associations with GIS-based variables was also explored. Higher concentrations of NO2 were seen near the airport terminal, entrance roads to the terminal, and near major roads, with qualitatively consistent spatial patterns between seasons. In our final multivariate model (R2 = 0.32), the local influences of highways and arterial/collector roads were statistically significant, as were local traffic density and distance to the airport terminal (all p GIS variables, and the regression model structure was robust to various model-building approaches. Our study has shown that there are clear local variations in NO2 in the neighborhoods that surround an urban airport, which are spatially consistent across seasons. LUR modeling demonstrated a strong influence of local traffic, except the smallest roads that predominate in residential areas, as well as proximity to the airport terminal.

  11. Procedural modeling of urban layout: population, land use, and road network

    OpenAIRE

    Lyu, X.; Han, Q.; de Vries, B.

    2017-01-01

    This paper introduces an urban simulation system generating urban layouts with population, road network and land use layers. The desired urban spatial structure is obtained by generating a population map based on population density models. The road network is generated at two spatial levels corresponding to the road hierarchy. The land use allocation is based on the What If? allocation model. The expected results are urban layouts suitable for academic scenario analysis.

  12. Modifying a dynamic global vegetation model for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, G.; Bartlein, P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Water balance models of simple structure are easier to grasp and more clearly connect cause and effect than models of complex structure. Such models are essential for studying large spatial scale land surface water balance in the context of climate and land cover change, both natural and anthropogenic. This study aims to (i) develop a large spatial scale water balance model by modifying a dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM), and (ii) test the model's performance in simulating actual evapotranspiration (ET), soil moisture and surface runoff for the coterminous United States (US). Toward these ends, we first introduced development of the "LPJ-Hydrology" (LH) model by incorporating satellite-based land covers into the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) DGVM instead of dynamically simulating them. We then ran LH using historical (1982-2006) climate data and satellite-based land covers at 2.5 arc-min grid cells. The simulated ET, soil moisture and surface runoff were compared to existing sets of observed or simulated data for the US. The results indicated that LH captures well the variation of monthly actual ET (R2 = 0.61, p 0.46, p 0.52) with observed values over the years 1982-2006, respectively. The modeled spatial patterns of annual ET and surface runoff are in accordance with previously published data. Compared to its predecessor, LH simulates better monthly stream flow in winter and early spring by incorporating effects of solar radiation on snowmelt. Overall, this study proves the feasibility of incorporating satellite-based land-covers into a DGVM for simulating large spatial scale land surface water balance. LH developed in this study should be a useful tool for studying effects of climate and land cover change on land surface hydrology at large spatial scales.

  13. Self-consistent approach for neutral community models with speciation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haegeman, Bart; Etienne, Rampal S.

    Hubbell's neutral model provides a rich theoretical framework to study ecological communities. By incorporating both ecological and evolutionary time scales, it allows us to investigate how communities are shaped by speciation processes. The speciation model in the basic neutral model is

  14. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, M.; Binner, A.; Coombes, E.; Day, B.; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, C.; Hutchins, M.; Lovett, A.; Posen, P.

    2016-01-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...

  15. The role of scientists in multiscale land use analysis: lessons learned from Dutch communities of practice

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bouma, J.; Vos, de J.A.; Sonneveld, M.P.W.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.; Stoorvogel, J.J.

    2008-01-01

    Many research and scientific organizations emphasize the importance of science for society in their strategic plans. This is certainly true for land use studies being discussed in this chapter as new environmental policies are introduced at European and national level. Such policies reflect concerns

  16. Gaining ground : land reform and the constitution of community in the Tojolabal Highlands of Chiapas, Mexico

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Haar, van der G.

    2001-01-01

    This study reconstructs the process of land redistribution in an indigenous region of Chiapas, the Tojolabal Highlands, situated between the better known Central Highlands and the Lacandona Rainforest. Until 1930 this region was dominated by large private estates or fincas ,

  17. Integrated modelling and the impacts of water management on land use

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dorner, W; Spachinger, K; Metzka, R

    2008-01-01

    River systems and the quantity and quality of water depend on the catchment, its structure and land use. In central Europe especially land is a scarce resource. This causes conflicts between different types of land use, but also with the interests of flood protection, nature conservation and the protection of water resources and water bodies in the flood plain and on a catchment scale. ILUP - Integrated Land Use Planning and River Basin Management was a project, funded by the European Union, to address the problems of conflicting interests within a catchment. It addressed the problems of conflicting land use from a hydrological perspective and with regard to the resulting problems of water management. Two test river basins, Vils and Rott, both with a catchment size of about 1000 square kilometres, were considered for the German part of the project. Objective of the project was to identify means of managing land use with regard to water management objectives and adapt planning strategies and methodologies of water management authorities to the new needs of catchment management and planning. Catchment models were derived to simulate hydrological processes, assess the safety of dams and improve the control strategy of detention reservoirs with regard to land use in the lower system. Hydrodynamic models provided the basis to assess flood prone areas, evaluate flood protection measures and analyze the impacts of river training and discharge on morphology. Erosion and transport models were used to assess the impacts of land use on water quality. Maps were compiled from model results to provide a basis for decision making. In test areas new ways of planning and implementation of measures were tested. As a result of model scenarios in combination with the socio economic situation in the catchment new methods of land management and land use management were derived and implemented in model areas. The results of the project show that new ways of managing land use in river

  18. The development and application of a decision support system for land management in the Lake Tahoe Basin—The Land Use Simulation Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forney, William M.; Oldham, I. Benson; Crescenti, Neil

    2013-01-01

    This report describes and applies the Land Use Simulation Model (LUSM), the final modeling product for the long-term decision support project funded by the Southern Nevada Public Land Management Act and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey’s Western Geographic Science Center for the Lake Tahoe Basin. Within the context of the natural-resource management and anthropogenic issues of the basin and in an effort to advance land-use and land-cover change science, this report addresses the problem of developing the LUSM as a decision support system. It includes consideration of land-use modeling theory, fire modeling and disturbance in the wildland-urban interface, historical land-use change and its relation to active land management, hydrologic modeling and the impact of urbanization as related to the Lahontan Regional Water Quality Control Board’s recently developed Total Maximum Daily Load report for the basin, and biodiversity in urbanizing areas. The LUSM strives to inform land-management decisions in a complex regulatory environment by simulating parcel-based, land-use transitions with a stochastic, spatially constrained, agent-based model. The tool is intended to be useful for multiple purposes, including the multiagency Pathway 2007 regional planning effort, the Tahoe Regional Planning Agency (TRPA) Regional Plan Update, and complementary research endeavors and natural-resource-management efforts. The LUSM is an Internet-based, scenario-generation decision support tool for allocating retired and developed parcels over the next 20 years. Because USGS staff worked closely with TRPA staff and their “Code of Ordinances” and analyzed datasets of historical management and land-use practices, this report accomplishes the task of providing reasonable default values for a baseline scenario that can be used in the LUSM. One result from the baseline scenario for the model suggests that all vacant parcels could be allocated within 12 years. Results also include

  19. Validation of the community radiative transfer model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ding Shouguo; Yang Ping; Weng Fuzhong; Liu Quanhua; Han Yong; Delst, Paul van; Li Jun; Baum, Bryan

    2011-01-01

    To validate the Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) developed by the U.S. Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA), the discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) model and the line-by-line radiative transfer model (LBLRTM) are combined in order to provide a reference benchmark. Compared with the benchmark, the CRTM appears quite accurate for both clear sky and ice cloud radiance simulations with RMS errors below 0.2 K, except for clouds with small ice particles. In a computer CPU run time comparison, the CRTM is faster than DISORT by approximately two orders of magnitude. Using the operational MODIS cloud products and the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) atmospheric profiles as an input, the CRTM is employed to simulate the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) radiances. The CRTM simulations are shown to be in reasonably close agreement with the AIRS measurements (the discrepancies are within 2 K in terms of brightness temperature difference). Furthermore, the impact of uncertainties in the input cloud properties and atmospheric profiles on the CRTM simulations has been assessed. The CRTM-based brightness temperatures (BTs) at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), for both thin (τ 30) clouds, are highly sensitive to uncertainties in atmospheric temperature and cloud top pressure. However, for an optically thick cloud, the CRTM-based BTs are not sensitive to the uncertainties of cloud optical thickness, effective particle size, and atmospheric humidity profiles. On the contrary, the uncertainties of the CRTM-based TOA BTs resulting from effective particle size and optical thickness are not negligible in an optically thin cloud.

  20. Modelling the Impacts of Changing Land Cover/Land Use and Climate on Flooding in the Elk River Watershed, British Columbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnes, C. C.; Byrne, J. M.; Hopkinson, C.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    The Elk River is a mountain watershed located along the eastern border of British Columbia, Canada. The Elk River is confined by railway bridges, roads, and urban areas. Flooding has been a concern in the valley for more than a century. The most recent major flood event occurred in 2013 affecting several communities. River modifications such as riprapped dykes, channelization, and dredging have occurred in an attempt to reduce inundation, with limited success. Significant changes in land cover/land use (LCLU) such as natural state to urban, forestry practices, and mining from underground to mountaintop/valley fill have changed terrain and ground surfaces thereby altering water infiltration and runoff processes in the watershed. Future climate change in this region is expected to alter air temperature and precipitation as well as produce an earlier seasonal spring freshet potentially impacting future flood events. The objective of this research is to model historical and future hydrological conditions to identify flood frequency and risk under a range of climate and LCLU change scenarios in the Elk River watershed. Historic remote sensing data, forest management plans, and mining industry production/post-mining reclamation plans will be used to create a predictive past and future LCLU time series. A range of future air temperature and precipitation scenarios will be developed based on accepted Global Climate Modelling (GCM) research to examine how the hydrometeorological conditions may be altered under a range of future climate scenarios. The GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model will be used to simulate climate and LCLU to assess historic and potential future flood frequency and magnitude. Results will be used to create innovative flood mitigation, adaptation, and management strategies for the Elk River with the intent of being wildlife friendly and non-destructive to ecosystems and habitats for native species.

  1. MANAGING LAND RE/DIS-POSSESSION FROM BELOW: HISTORY OF BIOPOLITICS COUNTERMOVEMENT IN TWO JAVANESE RURAL COMMUNITIES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamad Shohibuddin

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available The long debate on whether rural community in Java is more characterised as egalitarian or differentiated one has underrated the agency of the local people. This paper tries to propose the agency of local people through a comparative account upon history of two communities, namely Ngandagan in Central Java and Wangunwati in West Java. Mobilizing the collective action toward land struggle, both communities involved in a broad spectrum of property relations reform which ranged from struggles over material things, revenue, to political power. As those struggles reflect interventions for “making live” and “not letting die” of the local population, this paper argues that both communities engaged in biopolitics countermovement directed to market and political forces threatening their means of livelihoods and even their life. However, while two communities succeeded in transforming inter-groups property relations within community, their political future would eventually necessitate the broader transformation of property relations between the state and the society.Keywords: history of rural community, agrarian crises, the agency of local people, land struggle, property relations reform, biopolitics, Java, Indonesia.Perdebatan panjang mengenai apakah komunitas pedesaan di Jawa lebih bercorak egalitarian atau terdiferensiasi telah menyebabkan agensi penduduk lokal kurang diperhatikan. Paper ini mencoba mengedepankan agensi komunitas lokal melalui uraian komparatif atas sejarah dua komunitas, yakni Ngandagan di Jawa Tengah dan Wangunwati di Jawa Barat. Memobilisasikan aksi kolektif seputar perjuangan atas tanah, kedua komunitas ini terlibat dalam pembaruan relasi-relasi kepemilikan dalam spektrum yang luas, yang terentang dari perjuangan atas kepemilikan menyangkut benda material, pendapatan, hingga kekuasaan politik. Mengingat perjuangan demikian mencerminkan intervensi untuk “membuat hidup” dan “tidak membiarkan mati” atas penduduk lokal

  2. Simulation of boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall using CFSV2_SSiB model: sensitivity to Land Use Land Cover (LULC)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chilukoti, N.; Xue, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The land surface play a vital role in determining the surface energy budget, accurate representation of land use and land cover (LULC) is necessary to improve forecast. In this study, we have investigated the influence of surface vegetation maps with different LULC on simulating the boreal summer monsoon rainfall. Using a National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System version 2(CFSv2) model coupled with Simplified Simple Biosphere (SSiB) model, two experiments were conducted: one with old vegetation map and one with new vegetation map. The significant differences between new and old vegetation map were in semi-arid and arid areas. For example, in old map Tibetan plateau classified as desert, which is not appropriate, while in new map it was classified as grasslands or shrubs with bare soil. Old map classified the Sahara desert as a bare soil and shrubs with bare soil, whereas in new map it was classified as bare ground. In addition to central Asia and the Sahara desert, in new vegetation map, Europe had more cropped area and India's vegetation cover was changed from crops and forests to wooded grassland and small areas of grassland and shrubs. The simulated surface air temperature with new map shows a significant improvement over Asia, South Africa, and northern America by some 1 to 2ºC and 2 to 3ºC over north east China and these are consistent with the reduced rainfall biases over Africa, near Somali coast, north east India, Bangladesh, east China sea, eastern Pacific and northern USA. Over Indian continent and bay of Bengal dry rainfall anomalies that is the only area showing large dry rainfall bias, however, they were unchanged with new map simulation. Overall the CFSv2(coupled with SSiB) model with new vegetation map show a promising result in improving the monsoon forecast by improving the Land -Atmosphere interactions. To compare with the LULC forcing, experiment was conducted using the Global Forecast System (GFS) simulations

  3. The trends of modeling the ways of formation, distribution and exploitation of megapolis lands using geo-information systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostyantyn Mamonov

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available The areas of need for ways of modeling the formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS are identified. The article is to define the areas of modeling ways of formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS. In the study, the following objectives are set: to develop an algorithm process data base (Data System creation for pecuniary valuation of land settlements with the use of GIS; to offer process model taking into account the influence of one factor modules using geographic information systems; to identify components of geo providing expert money evaluation of land metropolis; to describe the general procedure for expert money assessment of land and property by using geographic information system software; to develop an algorithm methods for expert evaluation of land. Identified tools built algorithms used for modeling the ways of formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS. Directions ways of modeling the formation, distribution and use of land metropolis using GIS.

  4. Advancing land surface model development with satellite-based Earth observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orth, Rene; Dutra, Emanuel; Trigo, Isabel F.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo

    2017-05-01

    The land surface forms an essential part of the climate system. It interacts with the atmosphere through the exchange of water and energy and hence influences weather and climate, as well as their predictability. Correspondingly, the land surface model (LSM) is an essential part of any weather forecasting system. LSMs rely on partly poorly constrained parameters, due to sparse land surface observations. With the use of newly available land surface temperature observations, we show in this study that novel satellite-derived datasets help improve LSM configuration, and hence can contribute to improved weather predictability. We use the Hydrology Tiled ECMWF Scheme of Surface Exchanges over Land (HTESSEL) and validate it comprehensively against an array of Earth observation reference datasets, including the new land surface temperature product. This reveals satisfactory model performance in terms of hydrology but poor performance in terms of land surface temperature. This is due to inconsistencies of process representations in the model as identified from an analysis of perturbed parameter simulations. We show that HTESSEL can be more robustly calibrated with multiple instead of single reference datasets as this mitigates the impact of the structural inconsistencies. Finally, performing coupled global weather forecasts, we find that a more robust calibration of HTESSEL also contributes to improved weather forecast skills. In summary, new satellite-based Earth observations are shown to enhance the multi-dataset calibration of LSMs, thereby improving the representation of insufficiently captured processes, advancing weather predictability, and understanding of climate system feedbacks.

  5. Modeling the Behaviour of an Advanced Material Based Smart Landing Gear System for Aerospace Vehicles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Varughese, Byji; Dayananda, G. N.; Rao, M. Subba

    2008-01-01

    The last two decades have seen a substantial rise in the use of advanced materials such as polymer composites for aerospace structural applications. In more recent years there has been a concerted effort to integrate materials, which mimic biological functions (referred to as smart materials) with polymeric composites. Prominent among smart materials are shape memory alloys, which possess both actuating and sensory functions that can be realized simultaneously. The proper characterization and modeling of advanced and smart materials holds the key to the design and development of efficient smart devices/systems. This paper focuses on the material characterization; modeling and validation of the model in relation to the development of a Shape Memory Alloy (SMA) based smart landing gear (with high energy dissipation features) for a semi rigid radio controlled airship (RC-blimp). The Super Elastic (SE) SMA element is configured in such a way that it is forced into a tensile mode of high elastic deformation. The smart landing gear comprises of a landing beam, an arch and a super elastic Nickel-Titanium (Ni-Ti) SMA element. The landing gear is primarily made of polymer carbon composites, which possess high specific stiffness and high specific strength compared to conventional materials, and are therefore ideally suited for the design and development of an efficient skid landing gear system with good energy dissipation characteristics. The development of the smart landing gear in relation to a conventional metal landing gear design is also dealt with

  6. Model studies of crosswind landing-gear configurations for STOL aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stubbs, S. M.; Byrdsong, T. A.

    1973-01-01

    A dynamic model was used to directly compare four different crosswind landing gear mechanisms. The model was landed as a free body onto a laterally sloping runway used to simulate a crosswind side force. A radio control system was used for steering to oppose the side force as the model rolled to a stop. The configuration in which the landing gears are alined by the pilot and locked in the direction of motion prior to touchdown gave the smoothest runout behavior with the vehicle maintaining its crab angle throughout the landing roll. Nose wheel steering was confirmed to be better than steering with nose and main gears differentially or together. Testing is continuing to obtain quantitative data to establish an experimental data base for validation of an analytical program that will be capable of predicting full scale results.

  7. Challenges in land model representation of heat transfer in snow and frozen soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musselman, K. N.; Clark, M. P.; Nijssen, B.; Arnold, J.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate model simulations of soil thermal and moisture states are critical for realistic estimates of exchanges of energy, water, and biogeochemical fluxes at the land-atmosphere interface. In cold regions, seasonal snow-cover and organic soils form insulating barriers, modifying the heat and moisture exchange that would otherwise occur between mineral soils and the atmosphere. The thermal properties of these media are highly dynamic functions of mass, water and ice content. Land surface models vary in their representation of snow and soil processes, and thus in the treatment of insulation and heat exchange. For some models, recent development efforts have improved representation of heat transfer in cold regions, such as with multi-layer snow treatment, inclusion of soil freezing and organic soil properties, yet model deficiencies remain prevalent. We evaluate models that participated in the Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) experiment for proficiency in simulating heat transfer between the soil through the snowpack to the atmosphere. Using soil observations from cold region sites and a controlled experiment with Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), we explore the impact of snow and soil model decisions and parameter values on heat transfer model skill. Specifically, we use SUMMA to mimic the spread of behaviors exhibited by the models that participated in PLUMBER. The experiment allows us to isolate relationships between model skill and process representation. The results are aimed to better understand existing model challenges and identify potential advances for cold region models.

  8. Analysis and Modeling of Urban Land Cover Change in Setúbal and Sesimbra, Portugal

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yikalo H. Araya

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The expansion of cities entails the abandonment of forest and agricultural lands, and these lands’ conversion into urban areas, which results in substantial impacts on ecosystems. Monitoring these changes and planning urban development can be successfully achieved using multitemporal remotely sensed data, spatial metrics, and modeling. In this paper, urban land use change analysis and modeling was carried out for the Concelhos of Setúbal and Sesimbra in Portugal. An existing land cover map for the year 1990, together with two derived land cover maps from multispectral satellite images for the years 2000 and 2006, were utilized using an object-oriented classification approach. Classification accuracy assessment revealed satisfactory results that fulfilled minimum standard accuracy levels. Urban land use dynamics, in terms of both patterns and quantities, were studied using selected landscape metrics and the Shannon Entropy index. Results show that urban areas increased by 91.11% between 1990 and 2006. In contrast, the change was only 6.34% between 2000 and 2006. The entropy value was 0.73 for both municipalities in 1990, indicating a high rate of urban sprawl in the area. In 2006, this value, for both Sesimbra and Setúbal, reached almost 0.90. This is demonstrative of a tendency toward intensive urban sprawl. Urban land use change for the year 2020 was modeled using a Cellular Automata based approach. The predictive power of the model was successfully validated using Kappa variations. Projected land cover changes show a growing tendency in urban land use, which might threaten areas that are currently reserved for natural parks and agricultural lands.

  9. Shifts in the microbial community structure explain the response of soil respiration to land-use change but not to climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nazaries, Loïc; Tottey, William; Robinson, Lucinda

    2015-01-01

    Soil stores more carbon (C) than plants and atmosphere combined and it is vulnerable to increased microbial respiration under projected global changes including land-use change and future climate scenarios (mainly elevated temperature). Land-use change is known to have a direct impact on soil...... of this feedback response of Rs to global change. To identify the mechanisms of Rs response to land-use change and climate warming, we first investigated Rs from different land use types. Soil respiration was estimated seasonally from four different Scottish land uses: moorland, birch woodland, grassland and pine......, estimated by Multiplex Terminal-Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism (MT-RFLP) and 454 pyrosequencing, was significantly different under each land use type. A strong correlation of Rs with soil properties (pH, inorganic N, C:N ratio and moisture) and with microbial community structure was identified...

  10. Using an academic-community partnership model and blended learning to advance community health nursing pedagogy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ezeonwu, Mabel; Berkowitz, Bobbie; Vlasses, Frances R

    2014-01-01

    This article describes a model of teaching community health nursing that evolved from a long-term partnership with a community with limited existing health programs. The partnership supported RN-BSN students' integration in the community and resulted in reciprocal gains for faculty, students and community members. Community clients accessed public health services as a result of the partnership. A blended learning approach that combines face-to-face interactions, service learning and online activities was utilized to enhance students' learning. Following classroom sessions, students actively participated in community-based educational process through comprehensive health needs assessments, planning and implementation of disease prevention and health promotion activities for community clients. Such active involvement in an underserved community deepened students' awareness of the fundamentals of community health practice. Students were challenged to view public health from a broader perspective while analyzing the impacts of social determinants of health on underserved populations. Through asynchronous online interactions, students synthesized classroom and community activities through critical thinking. This paper describes a model for teaching community health nursing that informs students' learning through blended learning, and meets the demands for community health nursing services delivery. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  11. Effects of land-use change on community composition of tropical amphibians and reptiles in Sulawesi, Indonesia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanger, Thomas C; Iskandar, Djoko T; Motzke, Iris; Brook, Barry W; Sodhi, Navjot S; Clough, Yann; Tscharntke, Teja

    2010-06-01

    Little is known about the effects of anthropogenic land-use change on the amphibians and reptiles of the biodiverse tropical forests of Southeast Asia. We studied a land-use modification gradient stretching from primary forest, secondary forest, natural-shade cacao agroforest, planted-shade cacao agroforest to open areas in central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We determined species richness, abundance, turnover, and community composition in all habitat types and related these to environmental correlates, such as canopy heterogeneity and thickness of leaf litter. Amphibian species richness decreased systematically along the land-use modification gradient, but reptile richness and abundance peaked in natural-shade cacao agroforests. Species richness and abundance patterns across the disturbance gradient were best explained by canopy cover and leaf-litter thickness in amphibians and by canopy heterogeneity and cover in reptiles. Amphibians were more severely affected by forest disturbance in Sulawesi than reptiles. Heterogeneous canopy cover and thick leaf litter should be maintained in cacao plantations to facilitate the conservation value for both groups. For long-term and sustainable use of plantations, pruned shade trees should be permanently kept to allow rejuvenation of cacao and, thus, to prevent repeated forest encroachment.

  12. Evaluation of Landing Characteristics Achieved by Simulations and Flight Tests on a Small-scaled Model Related to Magnetically Levitated Advanced Take-off and Landing Operations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rohacs, D.; Voskuijl, M.; Siepenkotter, N.

    2014-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to simulate and measure on a small-scaled model the landing characteristics related to take-off and landing (TOL) operations supported by a magnetic levitation (MAGLEV) system as ground-based power supply. The technical feasibility and the potential benefits of using

  13. Influence of land use on bacterial and archaeal diversity and community structures in three natural ecosystems and one agricultural soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lynn, Tin Mar; Liu, Qiong; Hu, Yajun; Yuan, Hongzhao; Wu, Xiaohong; Khai, Aye Aye; Wu, Jinshui; Ge, Tida

    2017-07-01

    Studying shifts in microbial communities under different land use can help in determining the impact of land use on microbial diversity. In this study, we analyzed four different land-use types to determine their bacterial and archaeal diversity and abundance. Three natural ecosystems, that is, wetland (WL), grassland (GL), and forest (FR) soils, and one agricultural soil, that is, tea plantation (TP) soil, were investigated to determine how land use shapes bacterial and archaeal diversity. For this purpose, molecular analyses, such as quantitative polymerase chain reaction (Q-PCR), 16S rRNA gene sequencing, and terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP), were used. Soil physicochemical properties were determined, and statistical analyses were performed to identify the key factors affecting microbial diversity in these soils. Phylogenetic affiliations determined using the Ribosomal Database Project (RDP) database and T-RFLP revealed that the soils had differing bacterial diversity. WL soil was rich in only Proteobacteria, whereas GR soil was rich in Proteobacteria, followed by Actinobacteria. FR soil had higher abundance of Chloroflexi species than these soils. TP soil was rich in Actinobacteria, followed by Chloroflexi, Acidobacteria, Proteobacteria, and Firmicutes. The archaeal diversity of GL and FR soils was similar in that most of their sequences were closely related to Nitrososphaerales (Thaumarchaeota phylum). In contrast, WL soil, followed by TP soil, had greater archaeal diversity than other soils. Eight different archaeal classes were found in WL soil, and Pacearchaeota class was the richest one. The abundance of bacterial and archaeal 16S rRNA gene copies in WL and GL soils was significantly higher than that in FR and TP soils. Redundancy analysis showed that bacterial diversity was influenced by abiotic factors, e.g., total organic carbon and pH, whereas total nitrogen, pH, and cation exchange capacity (CEC) significantly affected

  14. Data mining and model adaptation for the land use and land cover classification of a Worldview 2 image

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nascimento, L. C.; Cruz, C. B. M.; Souza, E. M. F. R.

    2013-10-01

    Forest fragmentation studies have increased since the last 3 decades. Land use and land cover maps (LULC) are important tools for this analysis, as well as other remote sensing techniques. The object oriented analysis classifies the image according to patterns as texture, color, shape, and context. However, there are many attributes to be analyzed, and data mining tools helped us to learn about them and to choose the best ones. In this way, the aim of this paper is to describe data mining techniques and results of a heterogeneous area, as the municipality of Silva Jardim, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The municipality has forest, urban areas, pastures, water bodies, agriculture and also some shadows as objects to be represented. Worldview 2 satellite image from 2010 was used and LULC classification was processed using the values that data mining software has provided according to the J48 method. Afterwards, this classification was analyzed, and the verification was made by the confusion matrix, being possible to evaluate the accuracy (58,89%). The best results were in classes "water" and "forest" which have more homogenous reflectance. Because of that, the model has been adapted, in order to create a model for the most homogeneous classes. As result, 2 new classes were created, some values and some attributes changed, and others added. In the end, the accuracy was 89,33%. It is important to highlight this is not a conclusive paper; there are still many steps to develop in highly heterogeneous surfaces.

  15. Comparison of Ant Community Diversity and Functional Group Composition Associated to Land Use Change in a Seasonally Dry Oak Forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cuautle, M; Vergara, C H; Badano, E I

    2016-04-01

    Ants have been used to assess land use conversion, because they reflect environmental change, and their response to these changes have been useful in the identification of bioindicators. We evaluated ant diversity and composition associated to different land use change in a temperate forest (above 2000 m asl) in Mexico. The study was carried out in "Flor del Bosque" Park a vegetation mosaic of native Oak Forests and introduced Eucalyptus and grasslands. Species richness, dominance and diversity rarefaction curves, based on ant morphospecies and functional groups, were constructed and compared among the three vegetation types, for the rainy and the dry seasons of 2008-2009. Jaccard and Sorensen incidence-based indices were calculated to obtain similarity values among all the habitats. The Oak Forest was a rich dominant community, both in species and functional groups; the Eucalyptus plantation was diverse with low dominance. The most seasonality habitat was the grassland, with low species and high functional group diversity during the dry seasons, but the reverse pattern during the wet season. The Oak Forest was more similar to the Eucalyptus plantation than to the grassland, particularly during the dry season. Oak Forests are dominated by Cold Climate Specialists, specifically Prenolepis imparis (Say). The Eucalyptus and the grassland are characterized by generalized Myrmicinae, as Pheidole spp. and Monomorium ebenium (Forel). The conservation of the native Oak Forest is primordial for the maintenance of Cold Climate Specialist ant communities. The microclimatic conditions in this forest, probably, prevented the invasion by opportunistic species.

  16. Integrating Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics into State-and-Transition Simulation Models of Land Use/Land Cover Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleeter, B. M.; Daniel, C.; Frid, L.; Fortin, M. J.

    2016-12-01

    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general approach for incorporating uncertainty into forecasts of landscape change. Using a Monte Carlo approach, STSMs generate spatially-explicit projections of the state of a landscape based upon probabilistic transitions defined between states. While STSMs are based on the basic principles of Markov chains, they have additional properties that make them applicable to a wide range of questions and types of landscapes. A current limitation of STSMs is that they are only able to track the fate of discrete state variables, such as land use/land cover (LULC) classes. There are some landscape modelling questions, however, for which continuous state variables - for example carbon biomass - are also required. Here we present a new approach for integrating continuous state variables into spatially-explicit STSMs. Specifically we allow any number of continuous state variables to be defined for each spatial cell in our simulations; the value of each continuous variable is then simulated forward in discrete time as a stochastic process based upon defined rates of change between variables. These rates can be defined as a function of the realized states and transitions of each cell in the STSM, thus providing a connection between the continuous variables and the dynamics of the landscape. We demonstrate this new approach by (1) developing a simple IPCC Tier 3 compliant model of ecosystem carbon biomass, where the continuous state variables are defined as terrestrial carbon biomass pools and the rates of change as carbon fluxes between pools, and (2) integrating this carbon model with an existing LULC change model for the state of Hawaii, USA.

  17. Understanding land use change impacts on microclimate using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xia; Mitra, Chandana; Dong, Li; Yang, Qichun

    2018-02-01

    To explore potential climatic consequences of land cover change in the Kolkata Metropolitan Development area, we projected microclimate conditions in this area using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model driven by future land use scenarios. Specifically, we considered two land conversion scenarios including an urbanization scenario that all the wetlands and croplands would be converted to built-up areas, and an irrigation expansion scenario in which all wetlands and dry croplands would be replaced by irrigated croplands. Results indicated that land use and land cover (LULC) change would dramatically increase regional temperature in this area under the urbanization scenario, but expanded irrigation tended to have a cooling effect. In the urbanization scenario, precipitation center tended to move eastward and lead to increased rainfall in eastern parts of this region. Increased irrigation stimulated rainfall in central and eastern areas but reduced rainfall in southwestern and northwestern parts of the study area. This study also demonstrated that urbanization significantly reduced latent heat fluxes and albedo of land surface; while increased sensible heat flux changes following urbanization suggested that developed land surfaces mainly acted as heat sources. In this study, climate change projection not only predicts future spatiotemporal patterns of multiple climate factors, but also provides valuable insights into policy making related to land use management, water resource management, and agriculture management to adapt and mitigate future climate changes in this populous region.

  18. A stochastic Forest Fire Model for future land cover scenarios assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. D'Andrea

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Land cover is affected by many factors including economic development, climate and natural disturbances such as wildfires. The ability to evaluate how fire regimes may alter future vegetation, and how future vegetation may alter fire regimes, would assist forest managers in planning management actions to be carried out in the face of anticipated socio-economic and climatic change. In this paper, we present a method for calibrating a cellular automata wildfire regime simulation model with actual data on land cover and wildfire size-frequency. The method is based on the observation that many forest fire regimes, in different forest types and regions, exhibit power law frequency-area distributions. The standard Drossel-Schwabl cellular automata Forest Fire Model (DS-FFM produces simulations which reproduce this observed pattern. However, the standard model is simplistic in that it considers land cover to be binary – each cell either contains a tree or it is empty – and the model overestimates the frequency of large fires relative to actual landscapes. Our new model, the Modified Forest Fire Model (MFFM, addresses this limitation by incorporating information on actual land use and differentiating among various types of flammable vegetation. The MFFM simulation model was tested on forest types with Mediterranean and sub-tropical fire regimes. The results showed that the MFFM was able to reproduce structural fire regime parameters for these two regions. Further, the model was used to forecast future land cover. Future research will extend this model to refine the forecasts of future land cover and fire regime scenarios under climate, land use and socio-economic change.

  19. The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Is Poor Performance a Result of Methodology or Data Quality?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy J.; Or, Dani; Best, Martin J.; Johnson, Helen R.; Balsamo, Gianpaolo; Boone, Aaron; Cuntz, Matthais; Decharme, Bertrand; hide

    2016-01-01

    The PALS Land sUrface Model Benchmarking Evaluation pRoject (PLUMBER) illustrated the value of prescribing a priori performance targets in model intercomparisons. It showed that the performance of turbulent energy flux predictions from different land surface models, at a broad range of flux tower sites using common evaluation metrics, was on average worse than relatively simple empirical models. For sensible heat fluxes, all land surface models were outperformed by a linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. For latent heat flux, all land surface models were outperformed by a regression against downward shortwave, surface air temperature and relative humidity. These results are explored here in greater detail and possible causes are investigated. We examine whether particular metrics or sites unduly influence the collated results, whether results change according to time-scale aggregation and whether a lack of energy conservation in fluxtower data gives the empirical models an unfair advantage in the intercomparison. We demonstrate that energy conservation in the observational data is not responsible for these results. We also show that the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes in LSMs, rather than the calculation of available energy, is the cause of the original findings. Finally, we present evidence suggesting that the nature of this partitioning problem is likely shared among all contributing LSMs. While we do not find a single candidate explanation forwhy land surface models perform poorly relative to empirical benchmarks in PLUMBER, we do exclude multiple possible explanations and provide guidance on where future research should focus.

  20. Effect of dry land transformation and quality of water use for crop irrigation on the soil bacterial community in the Mezquital Valley, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lüneberg, Kathia; Schneider, Dominik; Daniel, Rolf; Siebe, Christina

    2017-04-01

    Soil bacteria are important determinants of soil fertility and ecosystem services as they participate in all biogeochemical cycles. Until now the comprehension of compositional and functional response that bacterial communities have to land use change and management, specifically in dry land its limited. Dry lands cover 40% of the world's land surface and its crop production supports one third of the global population. In this regions soil moisture is limited constraining farming to the rainy season or oblige to irrigate, as fresh water resources become scarce, to maintain productivity, treated or untreated wastewater for field irrigation is used. In this study the transformation of semiarid shrubland to agriculture under different land systems regarding quantity and quality of water use for crop irrigation on bacterial communities was investigated. The land systems included maize rain-fed plantations and irrigation systems with freshwater, untreated wastewater stored in a dam and untreated wastewater during dry and rainy season. Bacterial community structure and function was heavily affected by land use system and soil properties, whereas seasonality had a slighter effect. A soil moisture, nutrient and contaminant-content increasing gradient among the land use systems, going from rain fed plantation over fresh water, dam wastewater to untreated wastewater irrigated plantations was detected, this gradient diminished the abundance of Actinobacteria and Cyanobacteria, but enhanced the one from Bacteroidetes and Proteobacteria. Discernible clustering of the dry land soil communities coincides with the moisture, nutrient and contaminant gradient, being shrubland soil communities closer to the rain-fed's system and farer to the one from untreated wastewater irrigated soil. Soil moisture together with sodium content and pH were the strongest drivers of the community structure. Seasonality promoted shifts in the composition of soil bacteria under irrigation with

  1. Contamination of Community Potable Water from Land Grabbing: A Case Study from Rural Tanzania

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serena Arduino

    2012-06-01

    The paper discusses the direct causes of water contamination (the use of fertilisers and pesticides and the presence of cattle and the indirect causes (unclear administrative boundaries, lack of participation and transparency, procedures not followed and limited resources. The negotiation process and its outcomes are described. From this study we conclude that stakeholder communication and transparency are key elements in anticipating and preventing the arising of such situations. Often, these are in short supply when large land deals occur. In this case, ex-post solutions were arrived at. Finally, the paper looks at the broader dimensions of land deals that pollute the water feeding a water supply scheme. Such situations are a clear violation of the human right to safe drinking water – an issue that has not yet been sufficiently documented in the literature and which merits further attention.

  2. An ethnographic investigation on land and life of Santal community in Barind Tract, Bangladesh

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Akan, Mashiur Rahman; Al Mamun, Md Abdullah; Naznin, Tahmina

    2015-01-01

    This paper is an investigation of life style of Santal community, one of the largest tribal communities in Bangladesh. Participatory rural appraisal (PRA), participant observation, focus group discussions (FGD), and informal and semi-structured interviews were used to collect information. Santals......, social problems i.e., poverty, inequality, resource scarcity, illiteracy, maladjustment are more severe. Respecting the national constitution, Bangladesh should generate a multi-ethnic leadership to bring glory and protect Santal from all sorts of hazards and discriminations....

  3. Towards systematic evaluation of crop model outputs for global land-use models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclere, David; Azevedo, Ligia B.; Skalský, Rastislav; Balkovič, Juraj; Havlík, Petr

    2016-04-01

    Land provides vital socioeconomic resources to the society, however at the cost of large environmental degradations. Global integrated models combining high resolution global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and global economic models (GEMs) are increasingly being used to inform sustainable solution for agricultural land-use. However, little effort has yet been done to evaluate and compare the accuracy of GGCM outputs. In addition, GGCM datasets require a large amount of parameters whose values and their variability across space are weakly constrained: increasing the accuracy of such dataset has a very high computing cost. Innovative evaluation methods are required both to ground credibility to the global integrated models, and to allow efficient parameter specification of GGCMs. We propose an evaluation strategy for GGCM datasets in the perspective of use in GEMs, illustrated with preliminary results from a novel dataset (the Hypercube) generated by the EPIC GGCM and used in the GLOBIOM land use GEM to inform on present-day crop yield, water and nutrient input needs for 16 crops x 15 management intensities, at a spatial resolution of 5 arc-minutes. We adopt the following principle: evaluation should provide a transparent diagnosis of model adequacy for its intended use. We briefly describe how the Hypercube data is generated and how it articulates with GLOBIOM in order to transparently identify the performances to be evaluated, as well as the main assumptions and data processing involved. Expected performances include adequately representing the sub-national heterogeneity in crop yield and input needs: i) in space, ii) across crop species, and iii) across management intensities. We will present and discuss measures of these expected performances and weight the relative contribution of crop model, input data and data processing steps in performances. We will also compare obtained yield gaps and main yield-limiting factors against the M3 dataset. Next steps include

  4. Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: insights from a global agro-economic model comparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schmitz, C.; Meijl, van J.C.M.; Kyle, P.; Nelson, G.C.; Fujimori, S.; Gurgel, A.; Havlik, P.; Heyhoe, E.; Mason d'Croz, D.; Popp, A.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.A.; Mensbrugghe, van der D.; Lampe, von M.