WorldWideScience

Sample records for commodity futures prices

  1. Statistical field theory of futures commodity prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao

    2018-02-01

    The statistical theory of commodity prices has been formulated by Baaquie (2013). Further empirical studies of single (Baaquie et al., 2015) and multiple commodity prices (Baaquie et al., 2016) have provided strong evidence in support the primary assumptions of the statistical formulation. In this paper, the model for spot prices (Baaquie, 2013) is extended to model futures commodity prices using a statistical field theory of futures commodity prices. The futures prices are modeled as a two dimensional statistical field and a nonlinear Lagrangian is postulated. Empirical studies provide clear evidence in support of the model, with many nontrivial features of the model finding unexpected support from market data.

  2. The Price of Commodity Risk in Stock and Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M. Boons (Martijn); F.A. de Roon (Frans); M. Szymanowska (Marta)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractWe find that commodity risk is priced in the cross-section of US stock returns. Following the financialization of commodities, investors hedge commodity price risk directly in the futures market, primarily via commodity index investments, whereas before they gained commodity exposure

  3. Stochastic models for the spot and future prices of commodities with high volatility and mean reversion

    OpenAIRE

    García de la Vega, Victor Manuel; Ruiz-Porras, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    The pricing of commodity derivatives requires that the underlying asset be modelled with mean reversion and high volatility. We develop closed formulas to price the spot of the commodity, its future, and to price a call option on the spot and on the commodity future, in the real world and under risk neutrality, by using a 1 factor model.

  4. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Natanelov, Valeri; Alam, Mohammad J.; McKenzie, Andrew M.; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido

    2011-01-01

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: → We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. → A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. → Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  5. Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Natanelov, Valeri, E-mail: valeri.natanelov@ugent.be [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Alam, Mohammad J. [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium); Department of Agribusiness and Marketing, Bangladesh Agricultural University (Bangladesh); McKenzie, Andrew M. [Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas, AR (United States); Van Huylenbroeck, Guido [Department of Agricultural Economics, Ghent University, Coupure links 653, 9000 Ghent (Belgium)

    2011-09-15

    Even though significant attempts have appeared in literature, the current perception of co-movement of commodity prices appear inadequate and static. In particular we focus on price movements between crude oil futures and a series of agricultural commodities and gold futures. A comparative framework is applied to identify changes in relationships through time and various cointegration methodologies and causality tests are employed. Our results indicate that co-movement is a dynamic concept and that some economic and policy development may change the relationship between commodities. Furthermore we show that biofuel policy buffers the co-movement of crude oil and corn futures until the crude oil prices surpass a certain threshold. - Highlights: > We show that co-movement of commodity futures is a temporal concept. > A variation in parallel movement between 2 large periods occurs. > Biofuel policy buffers parallel movement of corn and crude oil futures

  6. Speculation on commodities futures markets and destabilization of global food prices: exploring the connections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosh, Jayati; Heintz, James; Pollin, Robert

    2012-01-01

    In December 2010, the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's Food Price Index surpassed its previous peak of June 2008, and prices remained at this level through September 2011. This pattern is creating justified fears of a renewal or intensification of the global food crisis. This paper reviews arguments and evidence to inform debates on how to regulate commodity futures markets in the face of such price volatility and sustained high prices. We focus on the relationship between market liquidity and price patterns in asset markets in general and in commodities futures markets in particular, as well as the relationship between spot and futures market prices for food. We find strong evidence supporting the need to limit huge increases in trading volume on futures markets through regulations. We find that arguments opposing regulation are not supported. We find no support for the claim that liquidity in futures markets stabilizes prices at "fundamental" values or that spot market prices are free of any significant influence from futures markets. Given these results, the most appropriate position for regulators is precautionary: they should enact and enforce policies capable of effectively dampening excessive speculative trading on the commodities markets for food.

  7. The influence of biofuels, economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Algieri, Bernardina

    2014-01-01

    Biofuels production has experienced rapid growth worldwide as one of the several strategies to promote green energy economies. Indeed, climate change mitigation and energy security have been frequent rationales behind biofuel policies, but biofuels production could generate negative impacts, such as additional demand for feedstocks, and therefore for land on which to grow them, with a consequent increase in food commodity prices. In this context, this paper examines the effect of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of a group of commodity futures prices using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) family models in univariate and multivariate settings. The results show that a complex of drivers are relevant in explaining commodity futures returns; more precisely, the Standard and Poor's (S and P) 500 positively affects commodity markets, while the US/Euro exchange rate brings about a decline in commodity returns. It turns out, in addition, that energy market returns are significant in explaining commodity returns on a daily basis, while monetary liquidity is not. This would imply that biofuel policy should be carefully monitored in order to avoid excessive first-generation subsidization, which would trigger a fuel vs. food conflict. - Highlights: • The effects of biofuels and other economic and financial factors on daily returns of commodity futures prices are examined. • A GARCH methodology in univariate and multivariate settings is adopted. • The results show that a complex of drivers is relevant in explaining commodity futures returns. • Energy market returns play a significant role in pushing commodity returns. • The increase in monetary liquidity does not contribute to changes in futures returns on a daily basis

  8. Understanding international commodity price fluctuations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Arezki, Rabah; Loungani, Prakash; van der Ploeg, Rick; Venables, Anthony J.

    An overview is provided of recent work on commodity prices, focusing on three themes: (i) "financialization" of commodity markets--commodities being considered by financial investors as a distinct asset class, (ii) trends and forecasts of commodity prices, and (iii) fracking-a shorthand for the

  9. Commodity Price Volatility: The Impact of Commodity Index Traders

    OpenAIRE

    Getu, Hailu; Weersink, Alfons

    2010-01-01

    Over the years, critics have argued that futures market prices have been either too low or too high. Speculators have often been the target for the wrath of those feeling the futures price does not properly reflect market fundamentals. Recently, the criticism has been vented toward a new type of speculator that has been blamed for the dramatic changes in agricultural commodity prices experienced over the last several years. Commodity index traders (CITs) and other large institutional traders ...

  10. Estimating the commodity market price of risk for energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kolos, Sergey P.; Ronn, Ehud I.

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to estimate the ''market price of risk'' (MPR) for energy commodities, the ratio of expected return to standard deviation. The MPR sign determines whether energy forward prices are upward- or downward-biased predictors of expected spot prices. We estimate MPRs using spot and futures prices, while accounting for the Samuelson effect. We find long-term MPRs generally positive and short-term negative, consistent with positive energy betas and hedging, respectively. In spot electricity markets, MPRs in Day-Ahead Prices agree with short-dated futures. Our results relate risk premia to informed hedging decisions, and futures prices to forecast/expected prices. (author)

  11. Expected commodity returns and pricing models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cortazar, Gonzalo; Kovacevic, Ivo; Schwartz, Eduardo S.

    2015-01-01

    Stochastic models of commodity prices have evolved considerably in terms of their structure and the number and interpretation of the state variables that model the underlying risk. Using multiple factors, different specifications and modern estimation techniques, these models have gained wide acceptance because of their success in accurately fitting the observed commodity futures' term structures and their dynamics. It is not well emphasized however that these models, in addition to providing the risk neutral distribution of future spot prices, also provide their true distribution. While the parameters of the risk neutral distribution are estimated more precisely and are usually statistically significant, some of the parameters of the true distribution are typically measured with large errors and are statistically insignificant. In this paper we argue that to increase the reliability of commodity pricing models, and therefore their use by practitioners, some of their parameters — in particular the risk premium parameters — should be obtained from other sources and we show that this can be done without losing any precision in the pricing of futures contracts. We show how the risk premium parameters can be obtained from estimations of expected futures returns and provide alternative procedures for estimating these expected futures returns. - Highlights: • Simple methodology to improve the performance of commodity pricing models • New information about commodity futures expected return is added to the estimation. • No significant effect in pricing futures contracts is observed. • More reliable commodity pricing model's expected returns are obtained. • Methodology is open to any expected futures return model preferred by practitioner

  12. A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of price discovery in commodity futures markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dolatabadi, Sepideh; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Xu, Ke

    In this paper we apply the recently developed fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive (FCVAR) model to analyze price discovery in the spot and futures markets for five non-ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, lead, nickel, and zinc). The FCVAR model allows for long memory (fractional...... to the results from the non-fractional model, we find slightly more evidence of price discovery in the spot market. Specifically, using standard likelihood ratio tests, we do not reject the hypothesis that price discovery takes place exclusively in the spot (futures) market for copper, lead, and zinc (aluminium...... straightforward examination of the adjustment coefficients. In our empirical analysis we use the data from Figuerola-Ferretti and Gonzalo (2010), who conduct a similar analysis using the usual (non-fractional) CVAR model. Our first finding is that, for all markets except copper, the fractional integration...

  13. Commodity derivatives pricing with inventory effects

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, Christian; Dziubinski, Matt P.

    We introduce tractable models for commodity derivatives pricing with inventory and volatility eects, and illustrate with applications to the oil market. We contribute to the existing literature in several respects. First, whereas the previous literature uses futures data for investigating...... the relationship between inventory and volatility, we use the information available in options traded on futures. Second, performance assessment in the previous literature has primarily evolved around explaining moments of data or forecasting prices of futures. Instead, we asses the performance of our model...... by considering both the ability of explaining prices in-sample and out-of-sample - assessing both the pricing-performance and the hedging-performance of the models. Third, we model the futures surface rather than the spot price process, and from the no-arbitrage relationship between spot and futures prices we...

  14. The Jump Size Distribution of the Commodity Spot Price and Its Effect on Futures and Option Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Gómez-Valle

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze the role of the jump size distribution in the US natural gas prices when valuing natural gas futures traded at New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX and we observe that a jump-diffusion model always provides lower errors than a diffusion model. Moreover, we also show that although the Normal distribution offers lower errors for short maturities, the Exponential distribution is quite accurate for long maturities. We also price natural gas options and we see that, in general, the model with the Normal jump size distribution underprices these options with respect to the Exponential distribution. Finally, we obtain the futures risk premia in both cases and we observe that for long maturities the term structure of the risk premia is negative. Moreover, the Exponential distribution provides the highest premia in absolute value.

  15. Price volatility, trading volume, and market depth in Asian commodity futures exchanges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tanachote Boonvorachote

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically investigates the impact of trading activity including trading volume and open interest on price volatility in Asian futures exchanges. Trading volume and open interest represent market information for investors. This study uses three different definitions of volatility: (1 daily volatility measured by close-to-close returns, (2 non-trading volatility measured by close-to-open returns, and (3 trading volatility measured by open-to-close returns. The impact of trading volume and open interest on price volatility is investigated. Following Bessembinder and Seguin (1993, volume and open interest are divided into expected and unexpected components. The GARCH (1,1 model is employed using expected and unexpected components of trading activity (volume and open interest as explanatory variables. The results show a positive contemporaneous relationship between expected and unexpected trading volume and volatility, while open interest mitigates volatility. Policy makers can use these findings to suggest to investors that trading activity (volume and open interest is a proxy of market information flowing to exchanges, especially unexpected trading activity. New information flowing to exchanges can mostly be noticed in unexpected trading volumes and open interests.

  16. Commodity prices and growth : An empirical investigation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Collier, P.; Goderis, B.V.G.

    2012-01-01

    Whereas empirical evidence on the effect of higher commodity prices on the long-run growth of commodity exporters is ambiguous, time series analyses using vector autoregressive (VAR) models have found that commodity booms raise income in the short run. In this paper we adopt panel error correction

  17. Biofuel and Food-Commodity Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Zilberman

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper summarizes key findings of alternative lines of research on the relationship between food and fuel markets, and identifies gaps between two bodies of literature: one that investigates the relationship between food and fuel prices, and another that investigates the impact of the introduction of biofuels on commodity-food prices. The former body of literature suggests that biofuel prices do not affect food-commodity prices, but the latter suggests it does. We try to explain this gap, and then show that although biofuel was an important contributor to the recent food-price inflation of 2001–2008, its effect on food-commodity prices declined after the recession of 2008/09. We also show that the introduction of cross-price elasticity is important when explaining soybean price, but less so when explaining corn prices.

  18. Energy prices and agricultural commodity prices: Testing correlation using copulas method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koirala, Krishna H.; Mishra, Ashok K.; D'Antoni, Jeremy M.; Mehlhorn, Joey E.

    2015-01-01

    The linear relationships between energy prices and prices for agricultural commodities such as corn and soybeans may have been affected, over the last several years, by policy legislations in the farm sector, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, and the Renewable Fuel Standard Program for 2014. Using high-frequency data and newer methodology, this study investigates dependence between agricultural commodity futures prices and energy futures prices. Results reveal that agricultural commodity and energy future prices are highly correlated and exhibit positive and significant relationship. Findings from this study highlight that an increase in energy price increases the price of agricultural commodities. - Highlights: • Energy policy mandates production of 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol by 2015. • Energy-intensive agriculture has a link between energy sector and crop production costs. • We investigate correlation between energy prices and agricultural commodity prices. • Agricultural commodity and energy future prices are highly correlated. • Increase in energy price increases the price of agricultural commodity

  19. Revisiting super-cycles in commodity prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fatma Pınar Erdem

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available It is argued that business cycles have been moderating. However, there are a limited number of studies in the literature analyzing the cyclical behaviour of commodity prices in the last decades. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating the super-cycles in oil prices. In addition, interdependence between cycles in GDP and oil prices and co-movements between cycles in oil and other commodity prices are investigated. Results show that super-cycles in oil prices still exist and are not moderating. The last peak in long-term oil price was observed in 2012 and since then it has been on a downward trend.

  20. World oil and agricultural commodity prices: Evidence from nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nazlioglu, Saban

    2011-01-01

    The increasing co-movements between the world oil and agricultural commodity prices have renewed interest in determining price transmission from oil prices to those of agricultural commodities. This study extends the literature on the oil-agricultural commodity prices nexus, which particularly concentrates on nonlinear causal relationships between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). To this end, the linear causality approach of Toda-Yamamoto and the nonparametric causality method of Diks-Panchenko are applied to the weekly data spanning from 1994 to 2010. The linear causality analysis indicates that the oil prices and the agricultural commodity prices do not influence each other, which supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. In contrast, the nonlinear causality analysis shows that: (i) there are nonlinear feedbacks between the oil and the agricultural prices, and (ii) there is a persistent unidirectional nonlinear causality running from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices. The findings from the nonlinear causality analysis therefore provide clues for better understanding the recent dynamics of the agricultural commodity prices and some policy implications for policy makers, farmers, and global investors. This study also suggests the directions for future studies. - Research highlights: → This study determines the price transmission mechanisms between the world oil and three key agricultural commodity prices (corn, soybeans, and wheat). → The linear and nonlinear cointegration and causality methods are carried out. → The linear causality analysis supports evidence on the neutrality hypothesis. → The nonlinear causality analysis shows that there is a persistent unidirectional causality from the oil prices to the corn and to the soybeans prices.

  1. Bootstrap Score Tests for Fractional Integration in Heteroskedastic ARFIMA Models, with an Application to Price Dynamics in Commodity Spot and Futures Markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cavaliere, Giuseppe; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard; Taylor, A.M. Robert

    Empirical evidence from time series methods which assume the usual I(0)/I(1) paradigm suggests that the efficient market hypothesis, stating that spot and futures prices of a commodity should cointegrate with a unit slope on futures prices, does not hold. However, these statistical methods...... fractionally integrated model we are able to find a body of evidence in support of the efficient market hypothesis for a number of commodities. Our new tests are wild bootstrap implementations of score-based tests for the order of integration of a fractionally integrated time series. These tests are designed...... principle do. A Monte Carlo simulation study demonstrates that very significant improvements infinite sample behaviour can be obtained by the bootstrap vis-à-vis the corresponding asymptotic tests in both heteroskedastic and homoskedastic environments....

  2. How market structure drives commodity prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bin; Wong, K. Y. Michael; Chan, Amos H. M.; So, Tsz Yan; Heimonen, Hermanni; Wei, Junyi; Saad, David

    2017-11-01

    We introduce an agent-based model, in which agents set their prices to maximize profit. At steady state the market self-organizes into three groups: excess producers, consumers and balanced agents, with prices determined by their own resource level and a couple of macroscopic parameters that emerge naturally from the analysis, akin to mean-field parameters in statistical mechanics. When resources are scarce prices rise sharply below a turning point that marks the disappearance of excess producers. To compare the model with real empirical data, we study the relationship between commodity prices and stock-to-use ratios in a range of commodities such as agricultural products and metals. By introducing an elasticity parameter to mitigate noise and long-term changes in commodities data, we confirm the trend of rising prices, provide evidence for turning points, and indicate yield points for less essential commodities.

  3. PRICE GENERATING PROCESS AND VOLATILITY IN NIGERIAN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osaihiomwan Ojogho

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The literature on agricultural commodity price volatility in Nigeria has constantly reflected that an excessive price movement is harmful for both producers and consumers, particularly for those who are not able to cope with that new source of economic uncertainty. It has also raised an extensive debate on the main determinants behind the large agricultural commodity price swings observed in the last years without recourse for the price generating process. To narrow this gap, the study examined the price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and aggregate food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using the linear Gaussian State-Space (SS model. The results of the descriptive statistics showed that the coefficients of variation for cereals (39.88%, food (32.65% and dairy price (43.08% were respectively higher during the overall time period (January 1990 to February 2014 than during the first (January 1990 to January 2002 and second (February 2002 to February 2014 sub-time periods. The results of the inferential statistics showed that authoregressive moving average (ARMA model is the most selected Nigeria agricultural commodity price generating model for the time periods, that a unit increase in the past price state of cereals, dairy, sugar, meat and aggregate food would increase the future price of sugar, meat and aggregate food by N0.14, N0.28 and N0.15 respectively but decrease future price of cereals and dairy by about N1.00 and N0.21 respectively, and that the one-step ahead predicted value for the first out-ofsample period for cereals, meat, dairy and sugar price were 6317.86, 10.24 and 2.06 respectively. The Nigerian agricultural commodity prices have experienced high variability over the period, and such volatility, price-generating process and the determinants of the Nigerian food commodities

  4. Valuing American Options on Commodity Futures Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Plato, Gerald

    1985-01-01

    The author modified a numerical procedure developed by Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein for valuing options on stocks to value options on commodity futures contracts The numerical procedure, unlike Black's widely used analytical approach, can include the value of early exercise in the option-premium estimates Analysis with the numerical procedure shows that the variability in the underlying futures price is crucial in determining the value of an option

  5. Forecasting Energy Commodity Prices Using Neural Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Massimo Panella

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available A new machine learning approach for price modeling is proposed. The use of neural networks as an advanced signal processing tool may be successfully used to model and forecast energy commodity prices, such as crude oil, coal, natural gas, and electricity prices. Energy commodities have shown explosive growth in the last decade. They have become a new asset class used also for investment purposes. This creates a huge demand for better modeling as what occurred in the stock markets in the 1970s. Their price behavior presents unique features causing complex dynamics whose prediction is regarded as a challenging task. The use of a Mixture of Gaussian neural network may provide significant improvements with respect to other well-known models. We propose a computationally efficient learning of this neural network using the maximum likelihood estimation approach to calibrate the parameters. The optimal model is identified using a hierarchical constructive procedure that progressively increases the model complexity. Extensive computer simulations validate the proposed approach and provide an accurate description of commodities prices dynamics.

  6. Pricing commodity outpatient procedures assessing the impact.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleverley, William O

    2015-10-01

    Hospitals should carefully consider all relevant factors before choosing to lower prices and payments for certain outpatient commodity services in an effort to remain competitive in their market. Key steps to take in the evaluation process include: Determining current profitability. Assessing profitability by payer class. Understanding overall cost positions. Assessing the relative payment terms of current commercial contracts. Determining the net revenue effect of proposed changes.

  7. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  8. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    -2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity......Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration...... with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008...

  9. Factor Structure in Commodity Futures Return and Volatility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christoffersen, Peter; Lunde, Asger; Olesen, Kasper Vinther

    with the equity market. We find evidence of a factor structure in daily commodity futures returns. However, the factor structure in daily commodity futures volatility is even stronger than in returns. When computing model-free realized commodity betas with the stock market we find that they were high during 2008......Using data on more than 750 million futures trades during 2004-2013, we analyze eight stylized facts of commodity price and volatility dynamics in the post financialization period. We pay particular attention to the factor structure in returns and volatility and to commodity market integration......-2010 but have since returned to the pre-crisis level close to zero. The common factor in commodity volatility is nevertheless clearly related to stock market volatility. We conclude that, while commodity markets appear to again be segmented from the equity market when only returns are considered, commodity...

  10. Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Cartas

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Trends and prospects of international major commodity prices. In 2012, the international commodity markets have seen declining prices, especially during the first half of the year, with some improvement mainly in the last quarter. On the whole, most of major commodity prices declined, following generally weaker demand and the uncertain global economic situation. The short term outlook shows broad declines of prices for all major commodity groups, including oil and excepting metal prices, which are expected to be sustained by the global economic recovery and increasing demand, mainly in China. This country represents a major player, with a great contribution to the movement of prices on most of international commodity markets, as she has a great role in the world consumption and trade of commodities, as well as in the world production of some of these goods, on the one hand, and enjoys huge financial resources, on the other.

  11. Migration of Price Discovery With Constrained Futures Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Anthony D. Hall; Paul Kofman; Steve Manaster

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates the information content of futures option prices when the futures price is regulated while the futures option price itself is not. The New York Board of Trade provides the empirical setting for this type of dichotomy in regulation. Most commodity derivatives markets regulate prices of all derivatives on a particular commodity simultaneously. NYBOT has taken an almost unique position by imposing daily price limits on their futures contracts while leaving the options pri...

  12. Price formation and transmission along the food commodity chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivana Blažková

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on analysis of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain in the Czech Republic, with the distinction on wheat products with low value added (wheat flour, respectively high value added (wheat rolls. The degree of vertical price transmission is measured to identify potential market failures, because asymmetric price transmission can be the result of existence of market power within the food commodity chain. The data basis is made up from monthly prices on partial markets of the analyzed commodity chain published by Czech Statistical Office and Ministry of Agriculture of the Czech Republic. The monitored time period is from January 2000 till October 2009. The analysis is based on calculation of the price transmission elasticity coefficient (evaluation of price transmission along the chain and the intensity of dependency of positive and negative inter-market price differences (evaluation whether positive or negative price changes are better transmitted among particular vertical markets. Time lag is tested as well. The assessment of price transmission along the wheat commodity chain confirmed the existence of market power especially on the retail stage and low impact of price changes of farm prices on final consumer food prices.

  13. Child mortality, commodity price volatility and the resource curse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makhlouf, Yousef; Kellard, Neil M; Vinogradov, Dmitri

    2017-04-01

    Given many developing economies depend on primary commodities, the fluctuations of commodity prices may imply significant effects for the wellbeing of children. To investigate, this paper examines the relationship between child mortality and commodity price movements as reflected by country-specific commodity terms-of-trade. Employing a panel of 69 low and lower-middle income countries over the period 1970-2010, we show that commodity terms-of-trade volatility increases child mortality in highly commodity-dependent importers suggesting a type of 'scarce' resource curse. Strikingly however, good institutions appear able to mitigate the negative impact of volatility. The paper concludes by highlighting this tripartite relationship between child mortality, volatility and good institutions and posits that an effective approach to improving child wellbeing in low to lower-middle income countries will combine hedging, import diversification and improvement of institutional quality. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

  14. An anatomy of commodity futures risk premia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Szymanowska, M.; de Roon, F.A.; Nijman, T.E.; van den Goorbergh, R.W.J.

    We identify two types of risk premia in commodity futures returns: spot premia related to the risk in the underlying commodity, and term premia related to changes in the basis. Sorting on forecasting variables such as the futures basis, return momentum, volatility, inflation, hedging pressure, and

  15. Stationarity changes in long-run energy commodity prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaklan, Aleksandar; Abrell, Jan; Neumann, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Situated at the intersection of the literatures on speculative storage and non-renewable commodity scarcity, this paper considers whether changes in persistence have occurred in long-run U.S. prices of the energy commodities crude oil, natural gas and bituminous coal. We allow for a structural break when testing for a break in persistence to avoid a change in the stochastic properties of prices being confounded by an unaccounted-for deterministic shift in the price series. We find that coal prices are trend stationary throughout their evolution and that oil prices change from stationarity to non-stationarity in the decade between the late 1960s to late 1970s. The result on gas prices is ambiguous. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for a possible structural shift when testing for breaks in persistence, while being robust to the exact date of the structural break. Based on our analysis we caution against viewing long-run energy commodity prices as being non-stationary and conclude in favor of modeling commodity market fundamentals as stationary, meaning that speculative storage will tend to have a dampening effect on prices. We also cannot reject that long-run prices of coal and, with some hesitation, gas follow a Hotelling-type rule. In contrast, we reject the Hotelling rule for oil prices since the late 1960s/early 1970s. - Highlights: • This paper contributes to the literatures on speculative storage and scarcity. • We test if long-run U.S. coal, oil and gas prices became non-stationary. • We pre-test for structural breaks when testing for changes in persistence. • Coal prices are found to be trend stationary, oil prices become non-stationary. • We caution against modeling commodity market fundamentals as non-stationary.

  16. 22 CFR 201.63 - Maximum prices for commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... not exceed the market price prevailing in comparable domestic sales in the United States at the time... 201.63 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES AND PROCEDURES APPLICABLE TO.... prevailing market price—U.S. source. The purchase price for a commodity, the source of which is the United...

  17. 22 CFR 201.68 - Maximum prices for commodity-related services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Maximum prices for commodity-related services... APPLICABLE TO COMMODITY TRANSACTIONS FINANCED BY USAID Price Provisions § 201.68 Maximum prices for commodity-related services. (a) The price for an USAID-financed commodity-related service, other than ocean or air...

  18. Commodity futures and market efficiency

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Vošvrda, Miloslav

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 42, č. 1 (2014), s. 50-57 ISSN 0140-9883 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : commodities * efficiency * entropy * long-term memory * fractal dimension Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 2.708, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/E/kristoufek-0420811.pdf

  19. Statistical microeconomics and commodity prices: theory and empirical results.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E

    2016-01-13

    A review is made of the statistical generalization of microeconomics by Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)), where the market price of every traded commodity, at each instant of time, is considered to be an independent random variable. The dynamics of commodity market prices is given by the unequal time correlation function and is modelled by the Feynman path integral based on an action functional. The correlation functions of the model are defined using the path integral. The existence of the action functional for commodity prices that was postulated to exist in Baaquie (Baaquie 2013 Phys. A 392, 4400-4416. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2013.05.008)) has been empirically ascertained in Baaquie et al. (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). The model's action functionals for different commodities has been empirically determined and calibrated using the unequal time correlation functions of the market commodity prices using a perturbation expansion (Baaquie et al. 2015 Phys. A 428, 19-37. (doi:10.1016/j.physa.2015.02.030)). Nine commodities drawn from the energy, metal and grain sectors are empirically studied and their auto-correlation for up to 300 days is described by the model to an accuracy of R(2)>0.90-using only six parameters. © 2015 The Author(s).

  20. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats’ Choices between Differently Priced Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers’ sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget

  1. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats' Choices between Differently Priced Commodities.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marijn van Wingerden

    Full Text Available Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers' sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to

  2. Budget Constraints Affect Male Rats' Choices between Differently Priced Commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wingerden, Marijn; Marx, Christine; Kalenscher, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    Demand theory can be applied to analyse how a human or animal consumer changes her selection of commodities within a certain budget in response to changes in price of those commodities. This change in consumption assessed over a range of prices is defined as demand elasticity. Previously, income-compensated and income-uncompensated price changes have been investigated using human and animal consumers, as demand theory predicts different elasticities for both conditions. However, in these studies, demand elasticity was only evaluated over the entirety of choices made from a budget. As compensating budgets changes the number of attainable commodities relative to uncompensated conditions, and thus the number of choices, it remained unclear whether budget compensation has a trivial effect on demand elasticity by simply sampling from a different total number of choices or has a direct effect on consumers' sequential choice structure. If the budget context independently changes choices between commodities over and above price effects, this should become apparent when demand elasticity is assessed over choice sets of any reasonable size that are matched in choice opportunities between budget conditions. To gain more detailed insight in the sequential choice dynamics underlying differences in demand elasticity between budget conditions, we trained N=8 rat consumers to spend a daily budget by making a number of nosepokes to obtain two liquid commodities under different price regimes, in sessions with and without budget compensation. We confirmed that demand elasticity for both commodities differed between compensated and uncompensated budget conditions, also when the number of choices considered was matched, and showed that these elasticity differences emerge early in the sessions. These differences in demand elasticity were driven by a higher choice rate and an increased reselection bias for the preferred commodity in compensated compared to uncompensated budget conditions

  3. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

    OpenAIRE

    Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

    2013-01-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise, consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis t...

  4. 78 FR 12933 - Proceedings Before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-02-26

    ... / Tuesday, February 26, 2013 / Rules and Regulations#0;#0; ] COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Parts 10, 12 and 171 Proceedings Before the Commodity Futures Trading Commission AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission...

  5. Market Structure and Price Transmission of Eggs Commodity

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdul Aziz Ahmad

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Purposes of this research are to determine some characteristics of distribution channel, market structure, and price maker transmission in purebred chicken egg commodity in Banyumas District, Central Java Province. Primary data applied on this research is from all channel distribution levels; from producers to final consumers. Meanwhile secondary data is collected from government official sources, such as BPS-Statistic of Banyumas Disrict, Banyumas Department of Industry, Trading and Cooperation, and previous researches which has been made by researcher team. Sample determining is directed by proportional random sampling methods. Some measurements are applied to this research, including to; Herfindahl Index (HI, Concentration Ratio (CF, and Minimum Efficiency Scale (MES to investigate market structure; and Asymmetric Price Transmission (APT to determine price transmission mechanism model. This research finds that (1 the distribution channel of egg commodity is spitted to different channel, the first channel: egg producer – retail traders – final consumers, and second channel: egg producers – whole seller – retail traders – final consumers; (2 market structure which is created to this farming specific commodity is perfect market; (3 price transmission mechanism analysis statistically shows that there is almost no existence of dominant power in price formation.

  6. Monetary Policy, Commodity Prices and Infl ation – Empirical Evidence from the US

    OpenAIRE

    Verheyen, Florian

    2010-01-01

    The past years were characterized by unprecedented rises in prices of commodities such as oil or wheat and inflation rates moved up above the mark of two percent per annum. This led to a revival of the debate whether commodity prices indicate future CPI inflation and if they can be used as indicator variables for central banks or not. We apply various econometric methods like Granger causality tests and SVAR models to US data. The results corroborate the notion that there was a strong link be...

  7. Optimal Nonlinear Pricing, Bundling Commodities and Contingent Services

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Podesta, Marion; Poudou, Jean-Christophe

    2008-01-01

    In this paper, we propose to analyze optimal nonlinear pricing when a firm offers in a bundle a commodity and a contingent service. The paper studies a mechanism design where all private information can be captured in a single scalar variable in a monopoly context. We show that to propose the package for commodity and service is less costly for the consumer, the firm has lower consumers' rent than the situation where it sells their good and contingent service under an independent pricing strategy. In fact, the possibility to use price discrimination via the supply of package is dominated by the fact that it is costly for the consumer to sign two contracts. Bundling energy and a contingent service is a profitable strategy for a energetician monopoly practising optimal nonlinear tariff. We show that the rates of the energy and the contingent service depend to the optional character of the contingent service and depend to the degree of complementarity between commodities and services. (authors)

  8. 22 CFR 201.64 - Application of the price rules to commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    .... 201.64 Section 201.64 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES AND PROCEDURES... purchase price of a commodity exceeds the price in comparable export sales or in comparable domestic sales... the determination of any prevailing market price of any commodity or any prevailing price or maximum...

  9. The crucial relationship among energy commodity prices: Evidence from the Spanish electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moutinho, Victor; Vieira, Joel; Carrizo Moreira, Antonio

    2011-01-01

    The main purpose of this article is twofold to analyze: (a) the long-term relation among the commodities prices and between spot electricity market price and commodity prices, and (b) the short-term dynamics among commodity prices and between electricity prices and commodity prices. Data between 2002 and 2005 from the Spanish electricity market was used. Econometric methods were used in the analysis of the commodity spot price, namely the vector autoregression model, the vector error correction model and the granger causality test. The co-integration approach was used to analyze the long-term relationship between the common stochastic trends of four fossil fuel prices. One of the findings in the long-term relation is that the prices of fuel and the prices of Brent are intertwined, though the prices of Brent ten to 'move' to reestablish the price equilibrium. Another finding is that the price of electricity is explained by the evolution of the natural gas series. - Highlights: → We model energy commodity prices in the Spanish electricity market. → We examine the short and long-term relationships among commodities prices. → We examine short and long-term relationships using co-integration techniques. → We found that in the long run the prices of fuel and Brent are intertwined. → The evolution of price of electricity is explained by the evolution of price of gas.

  10. Boom or bust : developing countries' rough ride on the commodity price rollercoaster

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brown, O.; Gibson, J.

    2006-10-01

    Current high commodity prices are driven by strong demand from the emerging economies of China and India in addition to high consumption in the United States. Many developing countries are experiencing massive windfall revenues from high commodity prices. However, commodity prices are highly volatile in the short term, and can vary as much as 50 per cent in a single year. While developed country producers are supported by subsidies and social safety nets, developing countries and smallholder producers feel the extent of commodity price volatility more directly. Many developing countries are becoming locked into the production and export of primary commodities whose volatile prices are declining over the long term, and over which they have very little control. Price volatility makes sound fiscal planning difficult for both countries and producers. Price booms and busts also drive social inequalities, livelihood inequalities, and corruption. Price swings can cause conflict over valuable land and resources, and does not create incentives for sound environmental stewardship. This paper described the impacts of commodity price volatility in developing countries with the aim of promoting discussion about what can be done to help stabilize revenues for countries as well as producers. Price trends and their importance were reviewed, and the theoretical benefits of liberalized commodity markets were examined. Previous attempts to stabilize commodity prices were reviewed. It was concluded that the best long-term solution to the commodity price problem is economic diversification. Recommendations for promoting economic diversification were provided. 43 refs., 1 tab., 2 figs

  11. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS*

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Justine S.; Shapiro, Jesse M.

    2015-01-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat “gas money” as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series. PMID:26937053

  12. FUNGIBILITY AND CONSUMER CHOICE: EVIDENCE FROM COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hastings, Justine S; Shapiro, Jesse M

    2013-11-01

    We formulate a test of the fungibility of money based on parallel shifts in the prices of different quality grades of a commodity. We embed the test in a discrete-choice model of product quality choice and estimate the model using panel microdata on gasoline purchases. We find that when gasoline prices rise consumers substitute to lower octane gasoline, to an extent that cannot be explained by income effects. Across a wide range of specifications, we consistently reject the null hypothesis that households treat "gas money" as fungible with other income. We compare the empirical fit of three psychological models of decision-making. A simple model of category budgeting fits the data well, with models of loss aversion and salience both capturing important features of the time series.

  13. Why does Colombia lack agricultural commodity futures?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Moreno-Alemay

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available This article explores the reasons why futures contracts are not traded as an alternative to price hedging for agricultural goods in Colombia. Based on surveys, interviews and statistical analysis, this study identified that conceptual gaps in contract negotiation, lack of consensus in the agricultural sector regarding the use of financial mechanisms and the sector’s infrequent contact with Colombia’s financial institutions, are the main reasons why a futures contracts market has not emerged.

  14. International commodity prices and civil war outbreak: new evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Ciccone, Antonio

    2018-01-01

    A new dataset by Bazzi and Blattman (2014) allows examining the effects of international commodity prices on the risk of civil war outbreak with more comprehensive data. I find that international commodity price downturns sparked civil wars in Sub-Saharan Africa. Another finding with the new dataset is that commodity price downturns also sparked civil wars beyond Sub-Saharan Africa since 1980. Effects are sizable relative to the baseline risk of civil war outbreak. My conclusions contrast wit...

  15. Evaluation of different hedging strategies for commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palzer, Andreas; Westner, Günther; Madlener, Reinhard

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we design and evaluate eight different strategies for hedging commodity price risks of industrial cogeneration plants. Price developments are parameterized based on EEX data from 2008 to 2011. The probability distributions derived are used to determine the value-at-risk (VaR) of the individual strategies, which are in a final step combined in a mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the most efficient hedging strategy. We find that the strategy adopted can have a marked influence on the remaining price risk. Quarter futures are found to be particularly well suited for reducing market price risk. In contrast, spot trading of CO 2 certificates is found to be preferable compared to forward market trading. Finally, portfolio optimization shows that a mix of various hedging strategies can further improve the profitability of a heat-based cogeneration plant. - Highlights: • Evaluation of commodity price risk hedging strategies for industrial cogeneration. • Value-at-risk analysis of eight different hedging strategies. • Mean-variance portfolio analysis for determining the optimal hedging strategy mix. • A mix of hedging strategies further improves profitability of heat-based CHP

  16. On the link between oil and commodity prices: a panel VAR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bremond, Vincent; Hache, Emmanuel; Joets, Marc

    2013-12-01

    The aim of this paper is to study the relationships between the price of oil and a large dataset of commodity prices, relying on panel data settings. Using second generation panel co-integration tests, our findings show that the WTI and commodity prices are not linked in the long term. Nevertheless, considering our results in causality tests, we show that short-run relations exist, mainly from the price of crude oil to commodity prices. We thus implement a panel VAR estimation with an impulse response function analysis. Two main conclusions emerge: (i) fast co-movements are highlighted, while (ii) market efficiency is emphasized. (authors)

  17. Price Relationships between EU CO2 Allowances and Energy and Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Nordby, Jill Francoise

    2011-01-01

    This thesis concentrates on relationships between EUA prices and the European and Scandinavian electricity markets, as well as oil and commodity prices. The main purpose of the paper is to explore what relationships exist between these both in the short and the long term. Are there any significant connections between the markets, and does one affect the other or vice versa, and do they move together in the long term? This type of exploration is interesting because of the nature of the EU E...

  18. Do Exchange Rates Really Help Forecasting Commodity Prices?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira; Sercu, Piet

    Chen et al. (2010) report that for ‘commodity currencies’, the exchange rate predicts the country’s commodity index but not vice versa. The commodity currency hypothesis is consistent with the Engle and West (2005) exchange rate model if the fundamental is chosen to be the country’s key export pr...

  19. Determinants of prices increase of agricultural commodities in a global context1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Borychowski Michał

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of this article is to present the determinants of increase in agricultural commodity prices after 2006. The other specific aim is to show the factors affecting agricultural raw materials and food prices in the global context. This article is a review paper of the determinants of recent commodity and food prices spikes. However, it provides an outlook on these determinants that were the most important for the increases in the last decade. The last part of the article (conclusions to some extent is a synthesis of considerations and includes the authors’ opinions concerning determinants and an attempt to identify which ones were the most important in the growth of agricultural commodity prices. These increases in agricultural commodity prices resulted from many factors and it is very difficult to separate the individual impact of each of them, because they occurred in parallel. However, it is possible to indicate several main reasons for these price increases, which are: adverse changes in supply-demand relations in agricultural markets, increases in oil prices (and increases of the volatility of those prices, development of biofuel production from agricultural commodities (the first generation biofuels, dollar depreciation, an increase in operations of a speculative nature on commodity markets and improper economic policy that created an environment for the growth of prices of agricultural products.

  20. Stochastic modeling of economic injury levels with respect to yearly trends in price commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damos, Petros

    2014-05-01

    The economic injury level (EIL) concept integrates economics and biology and uses chemical applications in crop protection only when economic loss by pests is anticipated. The EIL is defined by five primary variables: the cost of management tactic per production unit, the price of commodity, the injury units per pest, the damage per unit injury, and the proportionate reduction of injury averted by the application of a tactic. The above variables are related according to the formula EIL = C/VIDK. The observable dynamic alteration of the EIL due to its different parameters is a major characteristic of its concept. In this study, the yearly effect of the economic variables is assessed, and in particular the influence of the parameter commodity value on the shape of the EIL function. In addition, to predict the effects of the economic variables on the EIL level, yearly commodity values were incorporated in the EIL formula and the generated outcomes were further modelled with stochastic linear autoregressive models having different orders. According to the AR(1) model, forecasts for the five-year period of 2010-2015 ranged from 2.33 to 2.41 specimens per sampling unit. These values represent a threshold that is in reasonable limits to justify future control actions. Management actions as related to productivity and price commodity significantly affect costs of crop production and thus define the adoption of IPM and sustainable crop production systems at local and international levels. This is an open access paper. We use the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 license that permits unrestricted use, provided that the paper is properly attributed.

  1. The Character of Price Transmission Within Milk Commodity Chain in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Barbora Dudová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is focused on price transmission within milk commodity chain in the Czech Republic. The article distinct on milk products with low value added – cow milk/paper box milk and products with higher value added – cow milk/butter. Price transmission is measured by the coefficient of elasticity of the price transmission (EPT; price transfer is examined in demand as well as supply direction. Next part of the analysis measures price differences (by coefficient determination – R2 in supply direction. Last step in this analysis is the impact of time delay at the price transmission process (measured by R2. The price transmission is asymmetric in the supply direction on both parts of commodity chain (EPT = 0.29 and 0.62, in the demand direction is more symmetric (EPT = 0.31 and 1.02. The assumption of better transfer of positive price changes was confirmed. At the commodity chain of milk/dairy products the time delay is not so much important. With both tested commodity chains there was found higher power of downstream markets, proving demand driven behaviour of these commodity chains, and there was detected oligopsony market structure as well. The data represent monthly prices on both chosen vertical levels in the period of 1/2000–8/2013.

  2. Energy and Food Commodity Prices Linkage: An Examination with Mixed-Frequency Data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Trujillo Barrera, A.A.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Is the relationship between energy and agricultural commodities an important factor in the increasing price variability of food commodities? Findings from the literature appear to be mixed and highly influenced by the data frequency used in those analysis. A recurrent task in time series

  3. International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Brückner; Antonio Ciccone

    2007-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  4. International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Brückner; Antonio Ciccone

    2009-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  5. 77 FR 7138 - Public Availability of Commodity Futures Trading Commission FY 2011 Service Contract Inventory

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-10

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION Public Availability of Commodity Futures Trading Commission FY 2011 Service Contract Inventory AGENCY: Commodity Futures Trading Commission. ACTION: Notice of Public Availability of FY 2011 Service...

  6. A Marketing Approach to Commodity Futures Exchanges : A Case Study of the Dutch Hog Industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Meulenberg, M.T.G.; Pennings, J.M.E.

    2002-01-01

    This paper proposes a marketing strategic approach to commodity futures exchanges to optimise the (hedging) services offered. First, the environment of commodity futures exchanges is examined. Second, the threats and opportunities of commodity futures exchanges are analysed. Our analysis

  7. Global oil prices, macroeconomic fundamentals and China's commodity sector comovements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Peng

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the common movements of commodity sectors in China as well as the economic underpinnings of the comovements. We employ a Bayesian dynamic latent factor model to disentangle the common and idiosyncratic sector-specific factors of the prices of a group of China's commodity sectors: petrochemicals, grains, energy, non-ferrous metals, oils & fats, and softs. The results indicate that the common factor accounts for a significant portion of the fluctuations of China's commodity sectors, providing evidence of the strong commodity sector comovements in China. We further use a VAR model to link the common movements across China's commodity sectors to the underlying determinants, including global oil price shocks and domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that the global oil price shocks have strong effects on the common movements across commodity sectors in China in addition to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations at long horizons. However, at short horizons, the common movements across commodity sectors in China respond more strongly to the global oil shocks than to its domestic macroeconomic fluctuations. - Highlights: • We examine the comovements of commodity prices at the industry level in China. • The common factor accounts for a significant portion of commodity sector fluctuations. • We investigate the joint impacts of global oil price shocks and domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements. • The global oil price shocks have persistent and strong effects on the comovements. • The impacts of domestic macro fluctuations on the comovements differ at short and long horizons.

  8. Agricultural and oil commodities: price transmission and market integration between US and Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Rosa

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Purpose of this article it to get some evidences of market interaction between United States and Italy using the time series analysis of spot prices spanning from January 1999 to May 2012 for crude oil and three ag-commodities: wheat, corn and soybean. These crops have been selected for their relevance in ag-commodity exchanges between US and Italy markets. The integration between US and Italy agricultural markets is hypothesized for the consistent volume of crop traded between these two countries while the price transmission is related to the leading price signals of the CBT (Chicago Board of Trade. The integration between oil and ag-commodity markets is suggested both by the large use of energy intensive inputs, (fertilizer, seed, machinery in production of these ag-commodities, and their use in biofuel production. The results suggest: a for US market the evidence of market integration between crude oil and US ag-commodities; b for Italy the integration with US ag-commodity markets and less evidence of integration with the oil market. These results are valuable information both for the agents and policy makers contributing to improve the information accuracy to predict the price movements used by marketing operators for their strategies and policy makers to set up policies to re-establish conditions of market efficiency and allocate these ag-commodities in alternative market channels.

  9. Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Samuel Bazzi; Christopher Blattman

    2014-01-01

    Higher national incomes are correlated with political stability. Is this relationship causal? We test three theories linking income to conflict with new data on export price shocks. Price shocks have no effect on new conflict, even large shocks in high-risk nations. Rising prices, however, weakly lead to shorter, less deadly wars. This evidence contradicts the theory that rising state revenues incentivize state capture, but supports the idea that rising revenues improve counterinsurgency capa...

  10. Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks and their Effect on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Addison, Tony; Ghoshray, Atanu

    2014-01-01

    Commodity price shocks are an important type of external shock and are often cited as a problem for economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa. This paper quantifies the impact of agricultural commodity price shocks using a near vector autoregressive model. The novel aspect of this model is that we define an auxiliary variable that can potentially capture the definition of a price shock that allows us to determine whether the response of per capita Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in sub-Sahara...

  11. Commodity exchange prices for heating fuel oil EL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1980-09-01

    Last weeks prices for fuel oil EL and gasoil are shown: on the ARA-market on the New York exchange for time-bargains of the legal price authority Berlin fob Tw from stock or from the refinery in Germany and on the German product exchanges for fuel oil EL.

  12. THE ANALYSIS OF THE COMMODITY PRICE FORECASTING SUCCESS CONSIDERING DIFFERENT LENGTHS OF THE INITIAL CONDITION DRIFT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcela Lascsáková

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the paper the numerical model based on the exponential approximation of commodity stock exchanges was derived. The price prognoses of aluminium on the London Metal Exchange were determined as numerical solution of the Cauchy initial problem for the 1st order ordinary differential equation. To make the numerical model more accurate the idea of the modification of the initial condition value by the stock exchange was realized. By having analyzed the forecasting success of the chosen initial condition drift types, the initial condition drift providing the most accurate prognoses for the commodity price movements was determined. The suggested modification of the original model made the commodity price prognoses more accurate.

  13. Application of Derivatives Market for Controlling Risks of Commodity Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasuolė Drazdauskienė

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The issue of raw milk procurement cost level and fluctuation which inhibits strengthening negotiating positions of dairy product fabricants and probability of them staying competitive in the European Union, is examined. Scientific literature that analyzes risks of staple prices is overviewed in the article. The paper provides statistical data representing the situation of Lithuania in contrast with European Union rates. Global usage of prospective transactions and their possible influence on price regulation are analyzed. After examining statistical data and academic literature, conclusions are provided.

  14. Modelling electricity futures prices using seasonal path-dependent volatility

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fanelli, Viviana; Maddalena, Lucia; Musti, Silvana

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A no-arbitrage term structure model is applied to the electricity market. • Volatility parameters of the HJM model are estimated by using German data. • The model captures the seasonal price behaviour. • Electricity futures prices are forecasted. • Call options are evaluated according to different strike prices. - Abstract: The liberalization of electricity markets gave rise to new patterns of futures prices and the need of models that could efficiently describe price dynamics grew exponentially, in order to improve decision making for all of the agents involved in energy issues. Although there are papers focused on modelling electricity as a flow commodity by using Heath et al. (1992) approach in order to price futures contracts, the literature is scarce on attempts to consider a seasonal volatility as input to models. In this paper, we propose a futures price model that allows looking into observed stylized facts in the electricity market, in particular stochastic price variability, and periodic behavior. We consider a seasonal path-dependent volatility for futures returns that are modelled in Heath et al. (1992) framework and we obtain the dynamics of futures prices. We use these series to price the underlying asset of a call option in a risk management perspective. We test the model on the German electricity market, and we find that it is accurate in futures and option value estimates. In addition, the obtained results and the proposed methodology can be useful as a starting point for risk management or portfolio optimization under uncertainty in the current context of energy markets.

  15. International Commodities Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Markus Bruckner; Antonio Ciccone

    2010-01-01

    To learn more about the effect of economic conditions on civil war, we examine whether Sub-Saharan civil wars are more likely to start following downturns in the international price of countries’ main export commodities. The data show a robust effect of commodity price downturns on the outbreak of civil wars. We also find that Sub-Saharan countries are more likely to see civil wars following economic downturns in their main OECD export destinations.

  16. World coal prices and future energy demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bennett, J.

    1992-01-01

    The Clean Air Act Amendments will create some important changes in the US domestic steam coal market, including price increases for compliance coal by the year 2000 and price decreases for high-sulfur coal. In the international market, there is likely to be a continuing oversupply which will put a damper on price increases. The paper examines several forecasts for domestic and international coal prices and notes a range of predictions for future oil prices

  17. Price transmission between biofuels, fuels and food commodities

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krištoufek, Ladislav; Janda, K.; Zilberman, D.

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 8, č. 3 (2014), s. 362-373 ISSN 1932-104X Grant - others:GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Program:GA Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : biofuels * price transmission * non-linearity * elasticity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 4.214, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433525.pdf

  18. Impact Of Proposed Commodity Transaction Tax On Futures Trading In India

    OpenAIRE

    Pravakar Sahoo; Rajiv Kumar

    2008-01-01

    Trading in commodity derivatives on exchange platforms is an instrument to achieve price discovery, better price risk management, besides helping macro-economy with better resource allocation. Since the inception (2003) of national online trading on multi-commodity exchange platforms, the trade volumes have grown exponentially. In the union budget 2008-09, the government has proposed to impose a commodity transaction tax (CTT) of 0.017%. Though the stated rationale for imposing higher taxes i...

  19. 17 CFR 19.01 - Reports on stocks and fixed price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... price purchases and sales pertaining to futures positions in wheat, corn, oats, soybeans, soybean oil, soybean meal or cotton. 19.01 Section 19.01 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION REPORTS BY PERSONS HOLDING BONA FIDE HEDGE POSITIONS PURSUANT TO § 1.3(z) OF THIS CHAPTER AND BY...

  20. International positioning of South African electricity prices and commodity differentiated pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    George A. Thopila

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The South African electricity industry has seen a dramatic increase in prices over the past 3 years. This increase has been blanketed across all sectors and is based on a number of factors such as sector, usage and, in the case of domestic pricing, suburb. The cost of electricity in South Africa, particularly to the industrial sector, has been among the lowest in the world. In this paper, we analyse the recent price increases in the South African electricity sector and discuss the price determination mechanism employed by Eskom, South Africa's electricity provider. We also analyse the revenue and sales of Eskom and review the electricity price from an international perspective. The concept of differential pricing and international benchmarking is analysed as a possibility for the South African industrial electricity industry, so that all sectors are not adversely affected by across-the-board increases. Our aim is to raise the question of whether South Africa's electricity prices are in line with international increases and to suggest the possibility of differentiated prices in the local electricity sector.

  1. 17 CFR 270.17f-6 - Custody of investment company assets with Futures Commission Merchants and Commodity Clearing...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... transactions in Exchange-Traded Futures Contracts and Commodity Options, Provided that: (1) The manner in which... Contracts and Commodity Options means commodity futures contracts, options on commodity futures contracts... assets with Futures Commission Merchants and Commodity Clearing Organizations. 270.17f-6 Section 270.17f...

  2. On the importance of commodity and energy price shocks for the macroeconomy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edelstein, Paul S.

    Although higher commodity prices are commonly thought to presage higher rates of inflation, the existing literature suggests that the predictive power of commodity prices for inflation has waned since the 1980s. In the first chapter, I show that this result can be overturned using state-of-the-art forecast combination methods. Moreover, commodity prices are shown to contain predictive information not contained in the leading principal components of a broad set of macroeconomic and financial variables. These improved inflation forecasts are of little value, however, for predicting actual Fed policy decisions. The remaining two chapters study the effect of energy price shocks on U.S. consumer and business expenditures. In the second chapter, I show that there is no statistical support for the presence of asymmetries in the response of real consumption to energy price increases and decreases. This finding has important implications for empirical and theoretical models of the transmission of energy price shocks. I then quantify the direct effect on real consumption of (1) unanticipated changes in discretionary income, (2) shifts in precautionary savings, and (3) changes in the operating cost of energy-using durables. Finally, I trace the declining importance of energy price shocks relative to the 1970s to changes in the composition of U.S. automobile production and the declining overall importance of the U.S. automobile sector. An alternative source of asymmetry is the response of nonresidential fixed investment to energy price shocks. In the third chapter, I show that the apparent asymmetry in the estimated responses of business fixed investment in equipment and structures is largely an artifact (1) of the aggregation of mining-related expenditures by the oil, natural gas, and coal mining industry and all other expenditures, and (2) of ignoring an exogenous shift in investment caused by the 1986 Tax Reform Act. Once symmetry is imposed and miningrelated expenditures

  3. The relationship between spot and futures prices in the Nord Pool electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Botterud, Audun; Kristiansen, Tarjei; Ilic, Marija D.

    2010-01-01

    We analyze 11 years of historical spot- and futures prices from the hydro-dominated Nord Pool electricity market. We find that futures prices tend to be higher than spot prices. The average convenience yield is therefore negative, but varies by season and depends on the storage levels in hydro reservoirs. The average realized return on holding a long position in the futures market is also negative. The negative convenience yield and risk premium contrast empirical findings in most other commodity markets. We argue that differences between the supply and demand sides in terms of risk preferences and the ability to take advantage of short-term price variations can contribute to explain the observed relationship between spot- and futures prices. In addition, our analysis shows that the relationship between spot and futures prices is clearly linked to the physical state of the system, such as hydro inflow, reservoir levels, and demand. (author)

  4. Pricing Term Structure Risk in Futures Markets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijman, T.E.; de Roon, F.A.; Veld, C.H.

    1996-01-01

    One-period expected returns on futures contracts with di erent maturities di er because of risk premia in the spreads between futures and spot prices.We analyze the expected returns for futures contracts with di erent maturities using the information that is present in the current term structure of

  5. Implications of commodity price risk and operating leverage on petroleum project economic evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.; Laughton, D.G.

    1999-01-01

    The modern asset pricing method, MAP, can provide businesses with improved tools for economic analysis. This in turn leads to greater precision in the analysis of the effects of the following parameters: project structure, time, and uncertainty. This greater precision with MAP extends to analysis of the possibility for active control of the decision alternatives for managers in the petroleum business, especially where this possibility is not questioned. A methodology is developed as a model that quantifies revenue risk based on the nature of commodity price volatility and the accepted price of risk in the commodity market. A mathematical description is included of a natural gas log-normal distribution incorporating the annual volatility in the forecast, and a measure of the rate at which volatility decreases in the long run in the forecast. Give this volatility model, a risk discount factor is determinable and applicable to the current expectation of the commodity prices at a given time, and a discount time factor of all parts of the cash flow stream. Cases are used to evaluate a natural gas development project for the purpose of yielding scenarios for capital vs. operating cost trade-offs, price risk management, production profile, and the effect of the reverting vs. non-reverting price model. In application one, a comparison is made of discounted cash flow (DCF) to MAP evaluations giving a perspective on the various development choices which a producer has through third-party service providers. Further, an example is used to compare the two methods as alternative evaluations of development alternatives to speed up or slow down the production rate and decline profile of a gas field. As in the first example, the DCF discounting is higher than the net discounting in the MAP evaluation. But in this example both methods produce the same project structure decision. The small amount of incremental capital and operating costs needed for the higher production case are

  6. Modeling agricultural commodity prices and volatility in response to anticipated climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, D. B.; Tran, N.; Welch, J.; Roberts, M.; Schlenker, W.

    2012-12-01

    Food prices have shown a positive trend in the past decade, with episodes of rapid increases in 2008 and 2011. These increases pose a threat to food security in many regions of the world, where the poor are generally net consumers of food, and are also thought to increase risks of social and political unrest. The role of global warming in these price reversals have been debated, but little quantitative work has been done. A particular challenge in modeling these effects is that they require understanding links between climate and food supply, as well as between food supply and prices. Here we combine the anticipated effects of climate change on yield levels and volatility with an empirical competitive storage model to examine how expected climate change might affect prices and social welfare in the international food commodity market. We show that price level and volatility do increase over time in response to decreasing yield, and increasing yield variability. Land supply and storage demand both increase, but production and consumption continue to fall leading to a decrease in consumer surplus, and a corresponding though smaller increase in producer surplus.

  7. Commodity price dynamics and the nonlinear market impact of technical traders: empirical evidence for the US corn market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerhoff, Frank; Reitz, Stefan

    2005-04-01

    We develop a simple model with technical and fundamental traders to explain the cyclical motion of commodity prices. The crucial element of our model is a nonlinear market impact of technical traders: Estimation of our STAR-GARCH model using monthly US corn price data reveals that technical traders increasingly enter the market as booms or slumps enlarge. One reason may be that they only gradually learn about the emergence of persistent price trends. The behavior of trend-extrapolating speculators obviously enforces mispricings and thus contributes to cyclical motion as observed in actual commodity markets.

  8. The Pricing of Foreign Currency Futures Options

    OpenAIRE

    Chang Mo Ahn

    1996-01-01

    We derive semi-closed form solutions for the forward and futures exchange rates, European foreign currency options, currency forward options, and currency futures options when the domestic and foreign interest rate movements follow mean reverting diffusion processes. These solutions are consistent with the Black-Scholes option formula so that they can be easily applied. The impact of interest rate uncertainty on theoretical prices of currency futures options is too significant to be neglected.

  9. Mitigation potential and global health impacts from emissions pricing of food commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Springmann, Marco; Mason-D'Croz, Daniel; Robinson, Sherman; Wiebe, Keith; Godfray, H. Charles J.; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2017-01-01

    The projected rise in food-related greenhouse gas emissions could seriously impede efforts to limit global warming to acceptable levels. Despite that, food production and consumption have long been excluded from climate policies, in part due to concerns about the potential impact on food security. Using a coupled agriculture and health modelling framework, we show that the global climate change mitigation potential of emissions pricing of food commodities could be substantial, and that levying greenhouse gas taxes on food commodities could, if appropriately designed, be a health-promoting climate policy in high-income countries, as well as in most low- and middle-income countries. Sparing food groups known to be beneficial for health from taxation, selectively compensating for income losses associated with tax-related price increases, and using a portion of tax revenues for health promotion are potential policy options that could help avert most of the negative health impacts experienced by vulnerable groups, whilst still promoting changes towards diets which are more environmentally sustainable.

  10. International Commodity Markets, Local Food Prices and Environment in West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, M. E.; Hintermann, B.; Higgins, N.

    2008-12-01

    The recent massive increase in food and energy prices in the past five years, coupled with the awareness of the long term challenges of climate change to small holder agriculture in Africa has brought the issue of food security for the world's poorest people to the forefront once again. Asymmetric and limited integration of local commodity markets in West Africa highlights the weak position of Africa's rural countries in the face of climate change and demographic expansion. This paper will describe the functioning of local informal food markets in West African over the past twenty years and evaluate the impact of their limited integration with each other and with global commodity markets. Satellite remote sensing of vegetation has been used as a proxy for agricultural production in economic models to improve prediction of large swings in prices from year to year due to differences in supply. As demand increases, improvements in market functioning will be necessary to counter likely increases in production variability. Increasing Africa's stability in the face of climate change will require investment in agricultural production and transportation infrastructure in order to ensure an affordable flow of food to people in these extremely poor, landlocked countries.

  11. 75 FR 56997 - Petition of the National Futures Association, Pursuant to Rule 13.2, to the U.S. Commodity...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-17

    ...'s qualifying entity (1) Will use commodity futures or commodity options contracts solely for bona... commodity futures or commodity options not used for bona fide hedging purposes exceeding five percent (5... public as a commodity pool or as a vehicle for investment in commodity futures or commodity options. The...

  12. An equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yongheon; Oren, Shmuel S.

    2009-01-01

    Many industries are exposed to weather risk. Weather derivatives can play a key role in hedging and diversifying such risk because the uncertainty in a company's profit function can be correlated to weather condition which affects diverse industry sectors differently. Unfortunately the weather derivatives market is a classical example of an incomplete market that is not amenable to standard methodologies used for derivative pricing in complete markets. In this paper, we develop an equilibrium pricing model for weather derivatives in a multi-commodity setting. The model is constructed in the context of a stylized economy where agents optimize their hedging portfolios which include weather derivatives that are issued in a fixed quantity by a financial underwriter. The supply and demand resulting from hedging activities and the supply by the underwriter are combined in an equilibrium pricing model under the assumption that all agents maximize some risk averse utility function. We analyze the gains due to the inclusion of weather derivatives in hedging portfolios and examine the components of that gain attributable to hedging and to risk sharing. (author)

  13. Do changes in natural gas futures prices influence changes in natural gas spot prices?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herbert, J.H.

    1993-01-01

    Data on natural gas futures and spot markets are examined to determine if variability in price on futures markets influences variability in price on spot markets. Using econometric techniques, it is found that changes in futures contract prices do not precede changes in spot market prices. (Author)

  14. Hedging Effectiveness of Constant and Time Varying Hedge Ratio in Indian Stock and Commodity Futures Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Pandey, Ajay

    2008-01-01

    This paper examines hedging effectiveness of futures contract on a financial asset and commodities in Indian markets. In an emerging market context like India, the growth of capital and commodity futures market would depend on effectiveness of derivatives in managing risk. For managing risk, understanding optimal hedge ratio is critical for devising effective hedging strategy. We estimate dynamic and constant hedge ratio for S&P CNX Nifty index futures, Gold futures and Soybean futures. Vario...

  15. The term structure of oil futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabillon, J.

    1991-01-01

    In recent years, there has been a massive development of derivative financial products in oil markets. The main interest came from large energy end-users who found in them a welcome opportunity to lock in fixed or maximum prices for their supplies over a period of time. Oil companies and oil traders were able to provide tailor-made swaps or options for the specific needs of the end-users. In this paper, we present a two-variable model of the term structures of futures prices and volatilities assuming that the spot and long-term prices of oil are stochastic, and are the main determinants of the convenience yield function. Although the resulting convenience yield is stochastic, the model admits an analytic formulation under some restrictions. (author)

  16. Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

    2016-10-01

    One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

  17. Essays on Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Performance of Developing and Resources Rich Economies: Evidence from Kazakhstan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilgin, Ferhat I.

    My dissertation consists of three essays in empirical macroeconomics. The objective of this research is to use rigorous time-series econometric analysis to investigate the impact of commodity prices on macroeconomic performance of a small, developing and resource-rich country, which is in the process of transition from a purely command and control economy to a market oriented one. Essay 1 studies the relationship between Kazakhstan's GDP, total government expenditure, real effective exchange rate and the world oil price. Specifically, I use the cointegrated vector autoregression (CVAR) and error correction modeling (ECM) approach to identify the long and short-run relations that may exist among these macroeconomic variables. I found a long-run relationship for Kazakhstan's GDP, which depends on government spending and the oil price positively, and on the real effective exchange rate negatively. In the short run, the growth rate of GDP depends on the growth rates of the oil price, investment and the magnitude of the deviation from the long-run equilibrium. Essay 2 studies the inflation process in Kazakhstan based on the analysis of price formation in the following sectors: monetary, external, labor and goods and services. The modeling is conducted from two different perspectives: the first is the monetary model of inflation framework and the second is the mark-up modeling framework. Encompassing test results show that the mark-up model performs better than the monetary model in explaining inflation in Kazakhstan. According to the mark-up inflation model, in the long run, the price level is positively related to unit labor costs, import prices and government administered prices as well the world oil prices. In the short run, the inflation is positively influenced by the previous quarter's inflation, the contemporaneous changes in the government administered prices, oil prices and by the changes of contemporaneous and lagged unit labor costs, and negatively affected

  18. Hedging Price Risks of Farmers by Commodity Boards: A Simulation Applied to the Indian Natural Rubber Market

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zant, W.

    2001-01-01

    This paper investigates a hypothetical hedging scheme in a domestic commodity market under which a commodity board offers a forward contract to domestic producers and local traders and covers its commitments on an international futures exchange. It is aimed to quantify welfare gains to agents in the

  19. Financialization of commodities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michał Falkowski

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The basic theory of price formation tells us how the price of a particular asset will change based on the adjustment to its supply and demand. However, values of assets are also determined by other business fundamentals, company’s and world events, human psychology, and investors’ belief about the possible future profit. In recent history that lead to an increase of individual and institutional investors’ interest in allocating their resources in commodity markets. With a large inflow of capital commodities’ prices started to rise making them attractive components to effective investment portfolios. The presented paper addresses the issue of so called commodities ‘financialization’ process. It looks at the main factors standing behind commodities’ price movements and to what extent financial market participants contributed to commodities price volatility in recent years. Based on the data examined it distinguishes the involvement of both commercial and non-commercial traders in short and long term periods of time. As well as explaining the impact of growing investors’ interest in commodity markets it defines other market forces - like currency appreciations and emerging markets - as being part of increased volatility in raw and soft commodity markets. Along with market examination the paper focuses on possible future outcomes in attempts to regulate commodities derivatives markets and potential effects of those efforts.

  20. Fundamental Insights in Power Futures Prices

    OpenAIRE

    Kilic, Mehtap

    2013-01-01

    textabstractTransformations are prevailing phenomena in the energy market. In the 1990’s the electricity market transitioned from regulated to liberalized markets, which was initiated by the objective of the European Union to create one single European electricity market. By deregulation, ending monopolies and inefficiencies one of the desired results was to lower the prices for end-users, while giving the European Union a competitive position regarding electricity for the future. In the cour...

  1. Commodities, Prices and Risk: the changing market for non-slave products in pre-abolition in West Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dalrymple-Smith, A.E.; Woltjer, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    Using a newly constructed dataset on the quantities and prices of African commodities over the long 18th century this paper provides new insights into the changing nature of the non-slave trade with West Africa in the era before the abolition of the British transatlantic slave trade. We find that

  2. THE IMPACT OF THE RECENT FEDERAL RESERVE LARGESCALE ASSET PURCHASES ON THE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY PRICES: A HISTORICAL DECOMPOSITION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sayed H. Saghaian

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we evaluate the effects of the recent Federal Reserve’s purchases of longterm assets on prices of agricultural commodities. The first large-scale asset purchases began at the end of 2008, after the Great Recession, and the second purchases began in November of 2010. The commodities included in this analysis are meats (beef, pork, and broilers, cereal grains (corn, soybeans, wheat, and rice, and softs (sugar, coffee, cocoa, and cotton. Using historical decompositions, we find significant increases in the nominal agricultural prices of ten out of 12 agricultural commodities under investigation from the second large-scale asset purchases (in 2010 but the first set large-scale asset purchases had only two positive effects.

  3. 76 FR 28755 - Performance of Certain Functions by National Futures Association With Respect to Commodity Pool...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-18

    ... COMMISSION Performance of Certain Functions by National Futures Association With Respect to Commodity Pool... respect to pools whose units are listed and traded on a national securities exchange (Commodity ETFs); and... Commission has taken with respect to delegating to NFA various responsibilities under Part 4 of the...

  4. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar; Narayan, Seema; Popp, Stephan

    2011-01-01

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  5. Investigating price clustering in the oil futures market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Narayan, Paresh Kumar [School of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Deakin University (Australia); Narayan, Seema [School of Economics, Finance and Marketing, Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology, Melbourne (Australia); Popp, Stephan [Department of Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen (Germany)

    2011-01-15

    Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. (author)

  6. Parameter estimation of electricity spot models from futures prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aihara, ShinIchi; Bagchi, Arunabha; Imreizeeq, E.S.N.; Walter, E.

    We consider a slight perturbation of the Schwartz-Smith model for the electricity futures prices and the resulting modified spot model. Using the martingale property of the modified price under the risk neutral measure, we derive the arbitrage free model for the spot and futures prices. We estimate

  7. Price formation of the salmon aquaculture futures market

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ankamah-Yeboah, Isaac; Nielsen, Max; Nielsen, Rasmus

    2017-01-01

    , the 3-, 4-, 5-, 9- and 12-months futures contracts provide the expected leadership role in the price discovery function, a case that supports a matured market that can be considered a necessary price risk management tool. The mixed finding is an indication of a maturing or near matured futures market......This study examines price formation of the internationally traded salmon futures exchange. Analyzing data from 2006 to 2015, the study identifies the co-integration relationship between the spot market price and 1–6-, 9- and 12-month futures contract prices. With exception of the 12-month maturity...

  8. A New Method for Setting Futures Portfolios’ Maintenance Margins: Evidence from Chinese Commodity Futures Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chi Xie

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The Chinese commodity futures markets neglect the existence of the risk hedge and diversification between futures contracts, thus leading to overcharge futures portfolio holders’ maintenance margins. To this end, this paper proposes a new method, namely, the multivariate t-Copula-POT-PSRM method, which combines three models, that is, the multivariate t-Copula, the peaks over threshold (POT, and the power spectral risk measures (PSRM, to set futures portfolios’ maintenance margins. In the empirical analysis, we first construct four kinds of futures portfolios and set their maintenance margins by using the new method. Then, we introduce two evaluation indicators, namely, the prudence index (PI and the opportunity cost index (OCI, to assess the effectiveness of the proposed method. We also compare the outcomes of the two evaluation indicators of the new method with those of the widely used linear additive model. The empirical results show that the new method can, respectively, lower the OCI value of all four kinds of futures portfolios for the In-sample period and the Out-of-sample period without significantly reducing the PI value as against the traditional model, which implies that the proposed method can be used to balance security and investment efficiency in the futures market.

  9. If the Song has No Price, is it Still a Commodity? : Rethinking the Commodification of Digital Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rasmus Fleischer

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available In music streaming services like Spotify, discrete pieces of music no longer has a price, as has traditionally been the case in music retailing, both analog and digital. This article discusses the theoretical and practical implications of this shift towards subscriptions, starting from a critical review of recent literature dealing with the commodification of music. The findings have a relevance that is not limited to music or digital media, but also apply more broadly on the study of commodification. At the theoretical level, the article compares two ways of defining the commodity, one structural (Marx, one situational (Appadurai, Kopytoff, arguing for the necessity of a theory that can distinguish commodities from all that which is not (yet commodified. This is demonstrated by taking Spotify as a case, arguing that it does not sell millions of different commodities to its users, but only one: the subscription itself. This has broad economic and cultural implications, of which four are highlighted: (1 The user of Spotify has no economic incentive to limit music listening, because the price of a subscription is the same regardless of the quantity of music consumed. (2 For the same reason, Spotify as a company cannot raise its revenues by making existing customers consume more of the product, but only by raising the number of subscribers, or by raising the price of a subscription. (3 Within platforms like Spotify, it is not possible to use differential pricing of musical recordings, as has traditionally been the case in music retail. Accordingly, record companies or independent artists hence can no longer compete for listeners by offering their music at a discount. (4 Within the circuit of capital. Spotify may actually be better understood as a commodity producer than as a distributor, implying a less symbiotic relationship to the recorded music industry.

  10. Analysis of the development of export prices of selected agricultural and food commodities in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Palát

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on the description of average level, variability and developmental trends the export prices of selected agricultural and food commodities in the Czech Republic with differentiation according to particular countries within the defined reference period 1993–2002. Thre is also presented the short-time point and interval extrapolation prediction of studied events. Methods of regression and correlation analysis and developmental trends were applied for the mathematical-statistical analysis.

  11. On the global economic potentials and marginal costs of non-renewable resources and the price of energy commodities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mercure, Jean-François; Salas, Pablo

    2013-01-01

    A model is presented in this work for simulating endogenously the evolution of the marginal costs of production of energy carriers from non-renewable resources, their consumption, depletion pathways and timescales. Such marginal costs can be used to simulate the long term average price formation of energy commodities. Drawing on previous work where a global database of energy resource economic potentials was constructed, this work uses cost distributions of non-renewable resources in order to evaluate global flows of energy commodities. A mathematical framework is given to calculate endogenous flows of energy resources given an exogenous commodity price path. This framework can be used in reverse in order to calculate an endogenous marginal cost of production of energy carriers given an exogenous carrier demand. Using rigid price inelastic assumptions independent of the economy, these two approaches generate limiting scenarios that depict extreme use of natural resources. This is useful to characterise the current state and possible uses of remaining non-renewable resources such as fossil fuels and natural uranium. The theory is however designed for use within economic or technology models that allow technology substitutions. In this work, it is implemented in the global power sector model FTT:Power. Policy implications are given. - Highlights: • Theoretical model to forecast marginal costs of non-renewable resources. • Tracks the consumption and costs of non-renewable resources. • For use in economic or technology models

  12. Price transmission for agricultural commodities in Uganda: An empirical vector autoregressive analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lassen Kaspersen, Line; Føyn, Tullik Helene Ystanes

    autoregressive (VAR) model is presented. The prices of Robusta coffee and sorghum are examined, as both of these crops are important for the domestic economy of Uganda – Robusta as a cash crop, mainly traded internationally, and sorghum for consumption at household level. The analysis focuses on the spatial...... factor for price transmission within the country. However, the case is a bit different for the cash crop, Robusta coffee. In the period in the 1990’s with high coffee prices on the world market, prices in Uganda were strongly connected to world prices, and did not depend on the oil price. This indicates...... indicates that rising food prices (of little-traded crops) on world markets will not have a direct effect on food prices in Uganda....

  13. Electricity futures prices: time varying sensitivity to fundamentals

    OpenAIRE

    Fleten, Stein-Erik; Huisman, Ronald; Kilic, Mehtap; Pennings, Enrico; Westgaard, Sjur

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides insight into the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of contract prices for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the relation between the prices of electricity futures and those of underlying fundamentals such as natural gas, coal and emission rights varies over time. We test this view by applying a model that linearly relates elec...

  14. Modelling Volatility Spillovers for Bio-ethanol, Sugarcane and Corn Spot and Futures Prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); M.J. McAleer (Michael); Y-A. Wang (Yu-Ann)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe recent and rapidly growing interest in biofuel as a green energy source has raised concerns about its impact on the prices, returns and volatility of related agricultural commodities. Analyzing the spillover effects on agricultural commodities and biofuel helps commodity suppliers

  15. Prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels in long-run relationships: a comparative study for the USA and Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Groth, Tanja; Bentzen, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Time-series data for the USA and Europe representing prices of agricultural commodities, biofuels and fossil fuels are used for a comparative analysis of long-run price relationships. There is some evidence for cointegration between ethanol and gasoline, especially for the USA, and in the case...

  16. TRADING ACTIVITY AND PRICES IN ENERGY FUTURES MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aysegul Ates

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to examine trading activity and the relationship between futures trading activity by trader type and energy price movements in three energy futures markets –natural gas, crude oil and heating oil. We find that the level of net positions of speculators are positively related to future returns and in contrast net positions of hedgers are negatively related to futures price changes in all three markets. The changes in net positions are relatively more informative compare to the level of net positions in predicting price changes in related markets.

  17. An analysis of the effectiveness of a joint commodity and foreign exchange rate futures hedge: The case of a Canadian crude oil trader

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Klusa, L.J.

    1993-04-01

    This study focused on reducing risk for Canadian crude oil traders exposed to crude oil price and exchange rate uncertainty. Joint static and flow period hedges were developed and compared to unhedged positions and to naive and simple hedges. Optimal hedge ratio size and hedging effectiveness were identified for a variety of hedge lifting periods and durations. The in-sample results indicated that joint hedge models were more effective than other models in terms of minimizing the variance of returns. Out-of-sample results indicated that joint and simple commodity hedges were equally effective. Other findings included: shorter duration, close to expiry hedges were the most effective; the difference between the variability of spot and future price differences and their correlations were related to hedge ratio size; and a flow period hedge was the most effective hedge when spot prices were monthly average prices. 53 refs., 3 figs., 49 tabs

  18. 7 CFR 5.4 - Commodities for which parity prices shall be calculated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ..., types 35-36; sun-cured, type 37; Pennsylvania seedleaf, type 41; cigar filler and binder, types 42-44 and 53-55; Puerto Rican filler, type 46; and cigar binder, types 51-52. 1 For the purpose of..., cabbage, sweet corn, cucumbers, green peas, spinach and tomatoes. other commodities Beef cattle; hogs...

  19. Potential of commodity chemicals to become bio-based according to maximum yields and petrochemical prices

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Straathof, Adrie J.J.; Bampouli, A.

    2017-01-01

    Carbohydrates are the prevailing biomass components available for bio-based production. The most direct way to convert carbohydrates into commodity chemicals is by one-step conversion at maximum theoretical yield, such as by anaerobic fermentation without side product formation. Considering these

  20. Land use changes after the period commodities rising price in the Rio Grande do Sul State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vicente Celestino Pires Silveira

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: At the end of the 20th and early 21st century, agricultural systems incorporated definitively a new mission: to generate goods for a world population that continues to grow and whose way of life demand food with low environmental impact. Soybean is the main raw material for the production of biodiesel in Brazil, accountably responsible for 82.4% of the total produced between 2006 and 2013. The Brazilian state of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, which is formed by the Pampa and the Atlantic forest biomes, was responsible for 35.7% of the country's biodiesel production in the referred period. The aim of this paper was to verify the impact of the increased area of soybean cultivation in land use in Rio Grande do Sul State, in the period between 1990 and 2015, considering separately its two biomes (Pampa and Atlantic Forest original areas, using both census dataset and satellite images. We used the period from 1990 to 2000 as before commodity rising price (BCRP and the period from 2000 to 2013 as commodity rising price (CRP. The 505,162 ha from Atlantic Forest biome and 1,192,115ha from Pampa biome were added to soybean production in the CRP period. In the Atlantic Forest, this enlargement occurred in the border of the main production area, while in Pampa biome conversion of natural grassland to crop land was the main reason for the large increment in the cultivated area.

  1. HOUSEHOLDS DEMAND FOR STAPLE CEREAL COMMODITIES AND ANALYSIS OF THE EVOLUTION OF STAPLE CEREALS' PRICES IN BURKINA FASO

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Togo M. Traore

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available With a population increasing rapidly and agricultural yields almost stagnant over the years, access to food is a major challenge in Burkina Faso. This study investigates households demand for staple cereal commodities in Burkina Faso, using data from the 2009-2010 Integrated Household Living Condition Survey. A complete almost ideal demand system (AIDS model is estimated taking into account demographics and zero consumption. Results show that maize, millet and sorghum are necessities while rice is considered a superior cereal commodity. Demand for maize, millet and sorghum are less price elastic than rice and these results are consistent for most households except for wealthy, educated households living in urban areas where rice becomes a necessity. The analysis of the evolution of cereal prices shows an overall increase leaving many people in food insecurity and the country in political instability. Therefore, the country must adopt agricultural reforms to boost production and productivity by exploiting unfarmed land, building more storage facilities, roads and rural infrastructure, using improved seeds and more fertilizer, and installing irrigation systems.

  2. Growth And Oil Futures Prices In Developing Countries

    OpenAIRE

    Salah Abosedra; Sajal Ghosh

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines cointegration and causality between oil prices and economic growth for the oil importing developing countries of Turkey, India, Pakistan, The Philippines and Korea. The study finds the absence of cointegrating relationship between oil prices and economic activity but the existence of unidirectional short-run causality running from oil prices to economic growths for The Philippines and Pakistan. Unidirectional causality is also found to exist from six and nine month futures...

  3. The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadorsky, P.

    2000-01-01

    This paper investigates the interaction between energy futures prices and exchange rates. Results are presented to show that futures prices for crude oil, heating oil and unleaded gasoline are co-integrated with a trade-weighted index of exchange rates. This is important because it means that there exists a long-run equilibrium relationship between these four variables. Granger causality results for both the long- and short-run are presented. Evidence is also presented that suggests exchange rates transmit exogenous shocks to energy futures prices. 22 refs

  4. On the Stochastic Properties of Carbon Futures Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien; Sevi, Benoit

    2012-10-01

    Pricing carbon is a central concern in environmental economics, due to the importance of emissions trading schemes worldwide to regulate pollution. This paper documents the presence of small and large jumps in the stochastic process of the CO 2 futures price. The large jumps have a discrete origin, i.e. they can arise from various demand factors or institutional decisions on the tradable permits market. Contrary to the previously established literature, we show that the stochastic process of the carbon futures prices does not contain a continuous component (Brownian motion). The results are derived by using high-frequency data in the activity signature function framework (Todorov and Tauchen (2010, 2011)). The implication is that the carbon futures price should be rather modelled as an appropriately sampled, centered Levy or Poisson process. The pure-jump behavior of the carbon price could be explained by the lower volume of trades on this allowance market (compared to other highly liquid financial markets). (authors)

  5. Electricity Futures Prices : Time Varying Sensitivity to Fundamentals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S-E. Fleten (Stein-Erik); R. Huisman (Ronald); M. Kilic (Mehtap); H.P.G. Pennings (Enrico); S. Westgaard (Sjur)

    2014-01-01

    textabstractThis paper provides insight in the time-varying relation between electricity futures prices and fundamentals in the form of prices of contracts for fossil fuels. As supply curves are not constant and different producers have different marginal costs of production, we argue that the

  6. Oil prices, speculation, and fundamentals. Interpreting causal relations among spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Ullman, Ben

    2009-01-01

    A consensus that the world oil market is unified begs the question, where do innovations in oil prices enter the market? Here we investigate where changes in the price of crude oil originate and how they spread by examining causal relationships among prices for crude oils from North America, Europe, Africa, and the Middle East on both spot and futures markets. Results indicate that innovations first appear in spot prices for Dubai-Fateh and spread to other spot and futures prices while other innovations first appear in the far month contract for West Texas Intermediate and spread to other exchanges and contracts. Links between spot and futures markets are relatively weak and this may have allowed the long-run relationship between spot and future prices to change after September 2004. Together, these results suggest that market fundamentals initiated a long-term increase in oil prices that was exacerbated by speculators, who recognized an increase in the probability that oil prices would rise over time. (author)

  7. Resource externalities and the persistence of heterogeneous pricing behavior in an energy commodity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Koc, Veli; Sapio, Alessandro

    2015-01-01

    In competitive product markets, repeated interaction among producers with similar economic characteristics would be expected to result in convergence of their behaviors. If convergence does not occur, it raises fundamental questions related to the sustainability of heterogeneous competitive strategies. This paper examines the prices submitted to the British wholesale electricity market by four coal-fired plants, separately owned, approximately of the same age, size and efficiency, and located in the same transmission network zone. Due to the repetitive nature of the spot market, one would expect convergence in strategies. Yet, we find evidence of persistent price dispersion and heterogeneous strategies. We consider several propositions for these effects including market power, company size, forward commitments, vertical integration and the management of interrelated assets. - Highlights: • Time series models of offer prices from 4 companies, UK electricity spot market • Focus on coal-fired plants of similar size, efficiency, age, same network zone • Low, less volatile offers by small, not vertically integrated, only-coal company • Operational risks of nuclear plants in a portfolio imply finer tracking of PX prices • Market leadership from private information on the Anglo-French interconnector flows

  8. Cash dividends and futures prices on discontinuous filtrations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vellekoop, M.H.; Nieuwenhuis, J.W.

    We derive a general formula for the futures price process without the restriction that the assets used in the future margin account are continuous and of finite variation. To do so, we model tradeable securities with dividends which are not necessarily cash dividends at fixed times or continuously

  9. A sensitivity analysis of process design parameters, commodity prices and robustness on the economics of odour abatement technologies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estrada, José M; Kraakman, N J R Bart; Lebrero, Raquel; Muñoz, Raúl

    2012-01-01

    The sensitivity of the economics of the five most commonly applied odour abatement technologies (biofiltration, biotrickling filtration, activated carbon adsorption, chemical scrubbing and a hybrid technology consisting of a biotrickling filter coupled with carbon adsorption) towards design parameters and commodity prices was evaluated. Besides, the influence of the geographical location on the Net Present Value calculated for a 20 years lifespan (NPV20) of each technology and its robustness towards typical process fluctuations and operational upsets were also assessed. This comparative analysis showed that biological techniques present lower operating costs (up to 6 times) and lower sensitivity than their physical/chemical counterparts, with the packing material being the key parameter affecting their operating costs (40-50% of the total operating costs). The use of recycled or partially treated water (e.g. secondary effluent in wastewater treatment plants) offers an opportunity to significantly reduce costs in biological techniques. Physical/chemical technologies present a high sensitivity towards H2S concentration, which is an important drawback due to the fluctuating nature of malodorous emissions. The geographical analysis evidenced high NPV20 variations around the world for all the technologies evaluated, but despite the differences in wage and price levels, biofiltration and biotrickling filtration are always the most cost-efficient alternatives (NPV20). When, in an economical evaluation, the robustness is as relevant as the overall costs (NPV20), the hybrid technology would move up next to BTF as the most preferred technologies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Managing commodity risks in highway contracts : quantifying premiums, accounting for correlations among risk factors, and designing optimal price-adjustment contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-09-01

    It is a well-known fact that macro-economic conditions, such as prices of commodities (e.g. oil, : cement and steel) affect the cost of construction projects. In a volatile market environment, highway : agencies often pass such risk to contractors us...

  11. The impact of commodity price and conservation policy scenarios on deforestation and agricultural land use in a frontier area within the Amazon

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verburg, R.W.; Rodrigues Filho, S.; Lindoso, D.; Debortoli, N.; Litre, G.; Bursztyn, M.

    2014-01-01

    Deforestation in the Amazon is caused by the complex interplay of different drivers. Price of commodities such as beef and soya, and incoming migration are paramount factors. Construction of new highways is a key aspect, as they enable a growing flow of people and economic activities, provoking an

  12. An Economic Rationale for the African Scramble. The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1845-1885. NBER Working Paper 21213

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, E.H.P.; Williamson, J.G.; Woltjer, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    This is the first study to present a unified quantitative account of African commodity trade in the long 19th century from the zenith of the Atlantic slave trade (1790s) to the eve of World War II (1939). Drawing evidence from a new dataset on export and import prices, volumes, composition and net

  13. Modeling electricity spot and futures price dependence: A multifrequency approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malo, Pekka

    2009-11-01

    Electricity prices are known to exhibit multifractal properties. We accommodate this finding by investigating multifractal models for electricity prices. In this paper we propose a flexible Copula-MSM (Markov Switching Multifractal) approach for modeling spot and weekly futures price dynamics. By using a conditional copula function, the framework allows us to separately model the dependence structure, while enabling use of multifractal stochastic volatility models to characterize fluctuations in marginal returns. An empirical experiment is carried out using data from Nord Pool. A study of volatility forecasting performance for electricity spot prices reveals that multifractal techniques are a competitive alternative to GARCH models. We also demonstrate how the Copula-MSM model can be employed for finding optimal portfolios, which minimizes the Conditional Value-at-Risk.

  14. Future prices and market for SO2 allowances

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanghi, A.; Joseph, A.; Michael, K.; Munro, W.; Wang, J.

    1993-01-01

    The expected price of SO 2 emission allowances is an important issue in energy and integrated resource planning activities. For example, the expected price of SO 2 allowances in needed in order to evaluate alternative strategies for meeting SO 2 provisions of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. In addition, the expected SO 2 allowance price is important to state public utility regulators who must provide guidance on rate-making issues regarding utility compliance plans which involve allowance trading and direct investment of SO 2 control technologies. Last but not the least, the expected SO 2 allowance price is an important determinant of the future market for natural gas and low sulfur coal. The paper develops estimates of SO 2 allowance prices over time by constructing national supply and demand curves for SO 2 reductions. Both the supply and demand for SO 2 reductions are based on an analysis of the sulfur content of fuels burned in 1990 by utilities throughout the United States; and on assumptions about plant retirements, the rate of new capacity growth, the types of new and replacement plants constructed, the costs of SO 2 reduction measures and legislation by midwest states to maintain the use of high sulfur coal to protect local jobs. The paper shows that SO 2 allowance prices will peak around the year 2000 at about $500 per ton, and will eventually fall to zero by about the year 2020. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the price of SO 2 allowances is relatively insensitive to assumptions regarding the availability of natural gas or energy demand growth. However, SO 2 allowance prices tend to be quite sensitive to assumptions regarding regulations which may force early retirement of existing power plants and possible legislation which may reduce CO 2 emissions

  15. The Global Society will need commodities; how do we prepare for the future?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leahy, P. Patrick

    2016-04-01

    The global population currently stands at approximately 7 billion and is expected to increase to between 8.3 and 10.9 billion by 2050. To put this into perspective, today's global population is triple what it was in 1950. Commodities are required for healthy societies, for robust economies and to raise living standards in the developing world. With major increases the population particularly in nations with emerging economies, the demand for commodities such as water, energy and minerals will significantly increase during the next several decades. Among the concerns are clean and available freshwater, expanded energy sources from natural gas and nuclear to renewable energy, and emerging needs for specialty materials that are needed for advanced technology to expanded use of more conventional minerals for agriculture and commerce. The developing world may have the greatest need for these commodities and also be the source of many of them. At the conclusion of the International Year of Planet Earth, a small group was formed to assess the need for a major scientific effort in the geosciences. Under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS), the strategic initiatives group met and a broad initiative entitled 'Resourcing Future Generations' (RFG) that was designed to implement a scientific strategy to address the increasing demand for commodities over the next 25 years. The initiative focused on water resources, energy and minerals. The group felt strongly that the minerals component should be the initial emphasis and hoped that other global scientific organizations like IUGS would embrace the water and energy themes. Since this initial effort a number of workshops and presentations have been made including China, the International Geological Congress in Brisbane, the Davos Summit, Berlin, and Namibia amongst others. The strategic initiative planning group identifies 4 challenges to meeting future global mineral needs which are improved

  16. Chaos in oil prices? Evidence from futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adrangi, B.; Chatrath, A.; Dhanda, K.K.; Raffiee, K.

    2001-01-01

    We test for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline futures prices from the early 1980s. Evidence on chaos will have important implications for regulators and short-term trading strategies. While we find strong evidence of non-linear dependencies, the evidence is not consistent with chaos. Our test results indicate that ARCH-type processes, with controls for seasonal variation in prices, generally explain the non-linearities in the data. We also demonstrate that employing seasonally adjusted price series contributes to obtaining robust results via the existing tests for chaotic structure. Maximum likelihood methodologies, that are robust to the non-linear dynamics, lend support for Samuelson's hypothesis on contract-maturity effects in futures price-changes. However, the tests for chaos are not found to be sensitive to the maturity effects in the futures contracts. The results are robust to controls for the oil shocks of 1986 and 1991

  17. Linkages among U.S. Treasury Bond Yields, Commodity Futures and Stock Market Implied Volatility: New Nonparametric Evidence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vychytilova Jana

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to explore specific cross-asset market correlations over the past fifteen- yearperiod-from January 04, 1999 till April 01, 2015, and within four sub-phases covering both the crisis and the non-crisis periods. On the basis of multivariate statistical methods, we focus on investigating relations between selected well-known market indices- U.S. treasury bond yields- the 30-year treasury yield index (TYX and the 10-year treasury yield (TNX; commodity futures the TR/J CRB; and implied volatility of S&P 500 index- the VIX. We estimate relative logarithmic returns by using monthly close prices adjusted for dividends and splits and run normality and correlation analyses. This paper indicates that the TR/J CRB can be adequately modeled by a normal distribution, whereas the rest of benchmarks do not come from a normal distribution. This paper, inter alia, points out some evidence of a statistically significant negative relationship between bond yields and the VIX in the past fifteen years and a statistically significant negative linkage between the TR/J CRB and the VIX since 2009. In rather general terms, this paper thereafter supports the a priori idea- financial markets are interconnected. Such knowledge can be beneficial for building and testing accurate financial market models, and particularly for the understanding and recognizing market cycles.

  18. Market Efficiency and the Risks and Returns of Dynamic Trading Strategies with Commodity Futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Switzer, Lorne N.; Jiang, Hui

    This paper investigates relationships between profits from dynamic trading strategies, risk premium, convenience yields, and net hedging pressures for commodity futures. As a market efficiency study, it crosses a number of disciplines, including traditional finance, behavioral finance, and behavioral psychology. The term structure of oil, gold, copper and soybeans futures markets contains predictive power for the corresponding term premium. However, only oil futures and soybean futures lead their spot premium. Significant momentum profits are identified in both outright futures and spread trading strategies when the spot premium and the term premium are used to form winner and loser portfolios. Profits from active strategies based on winner and loser portfolios are conditioned on market structure and net hedging pressure effects. Dynamic trading strategies based on contracts with extreme backwardation, extreme contango, and extreme hedging pressures are also tested. On average, spread trading outperforms outright futures trading in capturing the term structure risk and hedging pressure risk. For such strategies, long-short the long-term spread offers the greatest and most significant return and it offers the only exploitable trading profits built on the past hedging pressure. The existence of profits from active trading strategies based on winners is consistent with behavioral finance and behavioral psychology models in which market participants irrationally overreact to information and trends.

  19. The analysis of return on speculative trading with futures contracts of agriculture commodities in the context of the currency risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oldřich Šoba

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper is focused on analysis of return on speculative operations with futures contracts from the view of participators not undertaking and undertaking the currency risk. The currency risk is determined by unexpected change of relevant exchange rate (currency denomination of futures contracts / domestic currency of participator. The paper analyses the basic factors influencing the profitability of these operations such as relative change of futures contract value, leverage incidence and relative change of relevant exchange rate. The paper is focused on futures contracts of the world most important agricultural commodities. The conclusion of the paper for participators not undertaking the currency risk is following: The relative change of futures contract is main factor for the calculation of return on speculative operation. This change is multiplied by leverage incidence finally. The conclusion of the paper for participators undertaking the currency risk is following: The relative change of relevant exchange rate is not usually relevant for the calculation of return on speculative operation. Main factor is the relative change of futures contract because this change is multiplied by leverage incidence finally but the relative change of relevant exchange rate isn’t.Neverthless the conclusions of this paper are not valid only for futures contracts of agricultural commodities but generally also for other commodity futures contracts and futures contracts where underlying assets are not commodities but for example financial assets.

  20. Hot Money Flows, Commodity Price Cycles, and Financial Repression in the US and the People’s Republic of China: The Consequences of Near Zero US Interest Rates

    OpenAIRE

    McKinnon, Ronald; Liu, Zhao

    2013-01-01

    Under near zero United States (US) interest rates, the international dollar standard malfunctions. Emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates are swamped with "hot money" inflows. Emerging market central banks intervene to prevent their currencies from rising precipitously. They subsequently lose monetary control and begin inflating. Primary commodity prices rise worldwide unless interrupted by an international banking crisis. This cyclical inflation on the dollar’s periphery only ...

  1. LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas): the natural gas becoming a world commodity and creating international price references; GNL (Gas Natural Liquefeito): o gas natural se tornando uma commodity mundial e criando referencias de preco internacionais

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Demori, Marcio Bastos [PETROBRAS, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Coordenacao de Comercializacao de Gas e GNL; Santos, Edmilson Moutinho dos [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Inst. de Eletrotecnica e Energia. Programa Interunidades de Pos-Graduacao em Energia (PIPGE)

    2004-07-01

    The transportation of large quantities of natural gas through long distances has been done more frequently by Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). The increase of natural gas demand and the distance of major reserves, allied to technological improvements and cost reduction through LNG supply chain, have triggered the expressive increase of LNG world market This paper tries to evaluate the influence that LNG should cause on natural gas world market dynamic, analyzing the tendency of gas to become a world commodity, creating international price references, like oil and its derivates. For this, are shown data as natural gas world reserves, the participation of LNG in natural gas world market and their increase. Furthermore, will be analyzed the interaction between major natural gas reserves and their access to major markets, still considering scheduled LNG projects, the following impacts from their implementation and price arbitrage that should be provoked on natural gas markets. (author)

  2. Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslyuk, Svetlana; Smyth, Russell

    2008-01-01

    In this article, we examine whether WTI and Brent crude oil spot and futures prices (at 1, 3 and 6 months to maturity) contain a unit root with one and two structural breaks, employing weekly data over the period 1991-2004. To realise this objective we employ Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two endogenous structural breaks proposed by Lee and Strazicich [2003. Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 1082-1089; 2004. Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break. Working Paper no. 04-17, Department of Economics, Appalachian State University]. We find that each of the oil price series can be characterised as a random walk process and that the endogenous structural breaks are significant and meaningful in terms of events that have impacted on world oil markets. (author)

  3. Role of Indian Commodity Derivatives Market in Hedging Price Risk: Estimation of Constant and Dynamic Hedge Ratio, and Hedging Effectiveness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brajesh Kumar

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This  paper  examines  hedging  effectiveness  of  four  agricultural  (soybean,  corn,  castor seed and guar seed and seven non-agricultural (gold, silver, aluminium, copper, zinc, crude oil  and,  natural  gas  futures  contracts  traded  in  India,  using  VECM  and  CCC-MGARCH model to estimate constant hedge ratio and dynamic hedge ratios, respectively. We ind that agricultural  futures  contracts  provide  higher  hedging  effectiveness  (30-70%  as  compared to  non-agricultural  futures  (20%.  In  the  more  recent  period,  the  hedging  effectiveness  of Indian futures markets has increased. When hedging effectiveness of non-agricultural Indian futures  contracts  with  the  world  spot  markets  (NYMEX  and  LME  is  analyzed,  hedging effectiveness  increases  dramatically  which  indicates  the  fact  that  Indian  futures  contracts are more effective for hedging exposures to global prices. Other reasons of lower hedging effectiveness  of  Indian  futures  contracts  may  be  low  awareness  of  futures  markets  among participants,  high  transaction  costs  in  the  futures  markets,  policy  restrictions,  inadequate contract design, or high transaction costs in the spot market. These are, of course, expected birth pays for a nascent futures markets in an emerging economy. ";} // -->activate javascript

  4. Composition of traders in live cattle futures contracts : behavior and implications to price discovery

    OpenAIRE

    Rowsell, John

    1991-01-01

    The concepts of risk transfer and price discovery are well developed roles for futures markets. The interaction between traders in futures markets in the transferring and acceptance of price risk contributes to the discovery of price. Interaction of traders in the risk transfer and price discovery processes is examined in this dissertation. Data employed were for live cattle futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange developed from the confidential daily records of reporting trader positions ...

  5. When Future Change Matters: Modeling Future Price and Diffusion in Health Technology Assessments of Medical Devices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grimm, Sabine E; Dixon, Simon; Stevens, John W

    Health technology assessments (HTAs) that take account of future price changes have been examined in the literature, but the important issue of price reductions that are generated by the reimbursement decision has been ignored. To explore the impact of future price reductions caused by increasing uptake on HTAs and decision making for medical devices. We demonstrate the use of a two-stage modeling approach to derive estimates of technology price as a consequence of changes in technology uptake over future periods on the basis of existing theory and supported by empirical studies. We explore the impact on cost-effectiveness and expected value of information analysis in an illustrative example on the basis of a technology in development for preterm birth screening. The application of our approach to the case study technology generates smaller incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with the commonly used single cohort approach. The extent of this reduction in the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio depends on the magnitude of the modeled price reduction, the speed of diffusion, and the length of the assumed technology life horizon. Results of value of information analysis are affected through changes in the expected net benefit calculation, the addition of uncertain parameters, and the diffusion-adjusted estimate of the affected patient population. Because modeling future changes in price and uptake has the potential to affect HTA outcomes, modeling techniques that can address such changes should be considered for medical devices that may otherwise be rejected. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Higgs, Helen; Worthington, Andrew

    2008-01-01

    It is commonly known that wholesale spot electricity markets exhibit high price volatility, strong mean-reversion and frequent extreme price spikes. This paper employs a basic stochastic model, a mean-reverting model and a regime-switching model to capture these features in the Australian national electricity market (NEM), comprising the interconnected markets of New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia and Victoria. Daily spot prices from 1 January 1999 to 31 December 2004 are employed. The results show that the regime-switching model outperforms the basic stochastic and mean-reverting models. Electricity prices are also found to exhibit stronger mean-reversion after a price spike than in the normal period, and price volatility is more than fourteen times higher in spike periods than in normal periods. The probability of a spike on any given day ranges between 5.16% in NSW and 9.44% in Victoria

  7. Cross-commodity hedges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simard, T.

    1999-01-01

    Energy risk management is the principal topic of this paper. Four major subjects are examined: cross-commodity trading objectives (reduce the risk of an underlying exposure in another commodity); portfolio risk reduction (an Alberta power distributor exposed to high pool prices could protect against high pool prices through a fixed price purchase of Alberta natural gas); tailoring pricing to customer needs (sell power to the gas producer indexed to the price of gas); and (4) reducing insurance costs (rather than purchasing downside protection (puts) individually against oil and gas prices, a producer could purchase a basket option). Since the key issue in cross-commodity transactions is the estimation of correlation, it is important to be prepared to alter correlation assumptions. 1 tab., 2 figs

  8. A Nodal Pricing Analysis of the Future German Electricity Market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ozdemir, O.; Hers, J.S.; Bartholomew Fisher, E.; Brunekreeft, G.; Hobbs, B.F.

    2009-05-01

    The electricity market in Germany is likely to undergo several significant structural changes over the years to come. Here one may think of Germany's ambitious renewable agenda, the disputed decommissioning of nuclear facilities, but also unbundling of TSO's as enforced by European regulation. This study is a scenario-based analysis of the impact of different realizations of known investment plans for transmission and generation capacity on the future German power market while accounting for internal congestion. For this analysis the static equilibrium model of the European electricity market COMPETES is deployed, including a 10-node representation of the German highvoltage grid. Results for the multi-node analysis indicate that price divergence and congestion are likely to arise in the German market as renewable additions affecting mainly the North of Germany, the debated decommissioning of nuclear facilities in the South, and the expected decommissioning of coal-fired facilities in Western Germany appear to render current investment plans for transmission capacity insufficient. The current system of singlezone pricing for the German market may therewith be compromised. However, transmission additions would not benefit all market parties, with producers in exporting regions and consumers in importing regions being the main beneficiaries. Vertical unbundling of German power companies could increase the incentive for constructing transmission lines if generation capacity would cause Germany to be a net-importing country. In case Germany remains a net-exporting country, the effects of vertical unbundling on cross-border capacity are less clear cut.

  9. On pricing futures options on random binomial tree

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bayram, Kamola; Ganikhodjaev, Nasir

    2013-01-01

    The discrete-time approach to real option valuation has typically been implemented in the finance literature using a binomial tree framework. Instead we develop a new model by randomizing the environment and call such model a random binomial tree. Whereas the usual model has only one environment (u, d) where the price of underlying asset can move by u times up and d times down, and pair (u, d) is constant over the life of the underlying asset, in our new model the underlying security is moving in two environments namely (u 1 , d 1 ) and (u 2 , d 2 ). Thus we obtain two volatilities σ 1 and σ 2 . This new approach enables calculations reflecting the real market since it consider the two states of market normal and extra ordinal. In this paper we define and study Futures options for such models.

  10. Crude oil pricing in Asia and future problems; Asia no gen`yu pricing to kongo no kadai

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kato, T. [The Institute of Energy Economics, Tokyo (Japan)

    1997-01-30

    This paper describes pricing factors of crude oil for Asia and future problems. Price of the Middle East crude oil for Asia is determined by linking the spot price of Dubayy crude oil using as a marker. Factors affecting the pricing of marker crude oil include the information dispatching functions for prices of spot market and paper market of marker crude oil, the presence of competitive crude oil, and the correlation between market of oil products and price of crude oil. The paper market of Dubayy crude oil with a small scale of trading provides poor impact and transparency. In Asia, there is no strong competitive crude oil except the Middle East crude oil. There is only a weak price linking between crude oil and products. These are the background that the price of Middle East crude oil stays at the high level and the price adjusting functions are hard to work. The marker crude oil should be changed to another except Dubayy crude oil, and information should be dispatched from purchasers based on the stable standard crude oil. The real paper market should be created, and the force of speaking to oil producing countries should be enhanced by concentrating forces of major oil consuming countries in Asia. It is necessary to find out competitive crude oils. 5 figs., 6 tabs.

  11. Commodity Market Inefficiencies and Inflationary Pressures - India’s Economic Policy Dilemma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pankaj Kumar GUPTA

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available With the current pace of growth, India would emerge as a major player in the international market in terms of commodity consumption, production and trade. Going by trade volume and also the possibly as an identifiable influence on the price making process on the essential commodities, the futures and spot markets have shown major variations. Increased volatility in asset prices has been a major reason behind the integration of domestic financial markets with the international financial sector accentuating the demand for the trading in the derivative market. Though organized commodity trading has been in from the nineteenth century in India, the commodity derivative markets in the new form with nationwide electronic trading and access have opened the gates for speculators, hedgers and other market participants to capitalize on the development. The robust growth of the commodity markets can be observed in terms of number of commodities trade volumes and growing number of both the market participants and the commodity exchanges. Liquidity booms reflected by loose monetary policy are responsible for major surge in commodity prices globally in addition to direct tangible impacts of oil prices especially in developing countries with heavy oil imports like India. Futures markets are created to fulfill genuine desires economic functions of hedging and price discovery. But, enormous futures trading observed on the commodity exchanges have raised a host of issues like inflation guided by the fuelling principle implying the direct relationship between volatility and inflation. Huge price volatility in futures segment on the commodity exchanges has therefore raised concerns relating to the market efficiencies, infrastructure and knowledge and also their consequential impact on cash markets. The demand and supply side of the commodity price mechanism is traditionally governed by numerous factors including the climatic conditions, availability of critical

  12. Macroeconomic factors and oil futures prices. A data-rich model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zagaglia, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    I study the dynamics of oil futures prices in the NYMEX using a large panel dataset that includes global macroeconomic indicators, financial market indices, quantities and prices of energy products. I extract common factors from the panel data series and estimate a Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression for the maturity structure of oil futures prices. I find that latent factors generate information that, once combined with that of the yields, improves the forecasting performance for oil prices. Furthermore, I show that a factor correlated to purely financial developments contributes to the model performance, in addition to factors related to energy quantities and prices. (author)

  13. Evaluation of long-term natural gas marketing agreements: An application of commodity forward and option pricing theory

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salahor, G.S.; Laughton, D.G.

    1993-01-01

    Methods that have been empirically validated in the analysis of short-term traded securities are adapted to evaluate long-term natural gas direct-sale contracts. A sample contract is examined from the perspective of the producer, and analyzed as a series of forward and option contracts. The assessment of contract value is based on the gas price forecast, the volatility in that forecast, and the valuation of risk caused by that volatility. The method presented allows the gas producer to quantify these elements, and to evaluate the variety of terms encountered in direct-sale natural gas agreements, including features such as load factors and penalty charges. The analysis uses as inputs a probabilistic price forecast and a determination of a price of risk for gas prices. Once the forecast volatility is derived from the probabilistic forecast, the forward contracts imbedded in the long-term gas contract can be valued with a risk-discounting model, and optional aspects can be evaluated using the Black-Scholes option pricing method. 10 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs

  14. The fractal feature and price trend in the gold future market at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Binghui; Duan, Tingting

    2017-05-01

    The price of gold future is affected by many factors, which include the fluctuation of gold price and the change of trading environment. Fractal analysis can help investors gain better understandings of the price fluctuation and make reasonable investment decisions in the gold future market. After analyzing gold future price from January 2th, 2014 to April 12th, 2016 at the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SFE) in China, the conclusion is drawn that the gold future market has sustainability in each trading day, with all Hurst indexes greater than 0.5. The changing features of Hurst index indicate the sustainability of gold future market is strengthened first and weakened then. As a complicatedly nonlinear system, the gold future market can be well reflected by Elman neural network, which is capable of memorizing previous prices and particularly suited for forecasting time series in comparison with other types of neural networks. After analyzing the price trend in the gold future market, the results show that the relative error between the actual value of gold future and the predictive value of Elman neural network is smaller. This model that has a better performance in data fitting and predication, can help investors analyze and foresee the price tendency in the gold future market.

  15. An Economic Rationale for the West African Scramble? The Commercial Transition and the Commodity Price Boom of 1835-1885

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, Ewout; Williamson, Jeffrey; Woltjer, Pieter

    2018-01-01

    We use a new trade dataset showing that nineteenth century Sub-Saharan Africa experienced a terms of trade boom comparable to other parts of the ‘global periphery’. A sharp rise in export prices in the five decades before the scramble (1835-1885) was followed by an equally impressive decline during

  16. Market information and price volatility in petroleum derivatives spot and future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khalid Nainar, S.M.

    1993-01-01

    This paper examines the relationship between petroleum futures trading, market information and spot prices. It tests the hypothesis that there is increased spot market information with futures trading of various petroleum derivatives for weekly data during the period January 1970 to July 1985 at the new York Mercantile Exchange. Increased market information with futures trading is indicated by the insignificance of coefficients of past prices in spot price regressions in periods with futures trading. However, the estimates of the coefficient of variation indicate that price volatility tends to increase with futures trading. Thus, traders seem better informed with futures trading although the advantages of increased market information might potentially be undermined by increased price volatility as in the case of regular gasoline. (author)

  17. Supplement: Commodity Index Report

    Data.gov (United States)

    Commodity Futures Trading Commission — Shows index traders in selected agricultural markets. These traders are drawn from the noncommercial and commercial categories. The noncommercial category includes...

  18. The futures and forward price differential in the Nordic electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wimschulte, Jens

    2010-01-01

    This note investigates price differentials between electricity forwards and portfolios of short-term futures with identical delivery periods at the Nordic Power Exchange (Nord Pool). Since both contracts are traded at the same exchange, there is no influence of, for example, different market microstructure and default risk when examining the effect of the marking-to-market of futures on the price differential. Although the prices of the futures portfolios are, on average, below the corresponding forward prices, these price differentials are, on average, not statistically significant and not economically significant when taking transaction costs into account. Given the characteristics of the electricity contracts under observation, this is consistent with the predictions of the model and indicates efficient pricing in the Nord Pool forward market in contrast to previous results. (author)

  19. Price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    The price terms in wheeling contracts very substantially, reflecting the differing conditions affecting the parties contracting for the service. These terms differ in the manner in which rates are calculated, the formulas used, and the philosophy underlying the accord. For example, and EEI study found that firm wheeling rates ranged from 20 cents to $1.612 per kilowatt per month. Nonfirm rates ranged from .15 mills to 5.25 mills per kilowatt-hour. The focus in this chapter is on cost-based rates, reflecting the fact that the vast majority of existing contracts are based on rate designs reflecting embedded costs. This situation may change in the future, but, for now, this fact can't be ignored

  20. Comparing branch-and-price algorithms for the Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette; Petersen, Bjørn

    2012-01-01

    -Protocol Label Switching. The problem has previously been solved to optimality through branch-and-price. In this paper we propose two exact solution methods both based on an alternative decomposition. The two methods differ in their branching strategy. The first method, which branches on forbidden edge sequences......, shows some performance difficulty due to large search trees. The second method, which branches on forbidden and forced edge sequences, demonstrates much better performance. The latter also outperforms a leading exact solution method from the literature. Furthermore, a heuristic algorithm is presented...

  1. A Future beyond HIV/AIDS? Health as a Political Commodity in Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Astrid Bochow

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Referencing scholarly debates on humanitarianism and specifically HIV interventions, this article analyses the commodification of health in Botswana’s political arena throughout the HIV pandemic and beyond, contributing to a re-evaluation of the distribution of public wealth and international support in welfare states in Africa. The starting point of the analysis is a project to build a private hospital – a move to create a centre of excellence exclusive of international HIV/AIDS donations – and the staging of political responsibilities around it. Public investment into private health is an attempt to reform infrastructures built with HIV/AIDS money and to develop a market of high-paying jobs within the country. This process transforms the inalienable and indivisible condition of health and survival into a political commodity.

  2. Interval Forecasting of Carbon Futures Prices Using a Novel Hybrid Approach with Exogenous Variables

    OpenAIRE

    Zhang, Lu; Zhang, Junbiao; Xiong, Tao; Su, Chiao

    2017-01-01

    This paper examines the interval forecasting of carbon futures prices in one of the most important carbon futures market. Specifically, the purpose of this study is to present a novel hybrid approach, which is composed of multioutput support vector regression (MSVR) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), in the task of forecasting the highest and lowest prices of carbon futures on the next trading day. Furthermore, we set out to investigate if considering some potential predictors, which have...

  3. The Hedging Performance in New Agricultural Futures Markets: A Note.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1997-01-01

    Agribusiness companies and farmers must cope with the risk of price changes when buying or selling agricultural commodities. Hedging price risk with agricultural commodity futures offers a way of minimizing this risk. Information is needed on the hedging effectiveness of these futures. Because many

  4. Prediction of future uniform milk prices in Florida federal milk marketing order 6 from milk futures markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vries, A; Feleke, S

    2008-12-01

    This study assessed the accuracy of 3 methods that predict the uniform milk price in Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 (Florida). Predictions were made for 1 to 12 mo into the future. Data were from January 2003 to May 2007. The CURRENT method assumed that future uniform milk prices were equal to the last announced uniform milk price. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods were based on the milk futures markets because the futures prices reflect the market's expectation of the class III and class IV cash prices that are announced monthly by USDA. The F+BASIS method added an exponentially weighted moving average of the difference between the class III cash price and the historical uniform milk price (also known as basis) to the class III futures price. The F+UTIL method used the class III and class IV futures prices, the most recently announced butter price, and historical utilizations to predict the skim milk prices, butterfat prices, and utilizations in all 4 classes. Predictions of future utilizations were made with a Holt-Winters smoothing method. Federal Milk Marketing Order 6 had high class I utilization (85 +/- 4.8%). Mean and standard deviation of the class III and class IV cash prices were $13.39 +/- 2.40/cwt (1 cwt = 45.36 kg) and $12.06 +/- 1.80/cwt, respectively. The actual uniform price in Tampa, Florida, was $16.62 +/- 2.16/cwt. The basis was $3.23 +/- 1.23/cwt. The F+BASIS and F+UTIL predictions were generally too low during the period considered because the class III cash prices were greater than the corresponding class III futures prices. For the 1- to 6-mo-ahead predictions, the root of the mean squared prediction errors from the F+BASIS method were $1.12, $1.20, $1.55, $1.91, $2.16, and $2.34/cwt, respectively. The root of the mean squared prediction errors ranged from $2.50 to $2.73/cwt for predictions up to 12 mo ahead. Results from the F+UTIL method were similar. The accuracies of the F+BASIS and F+UTIL methods for all 12 fore-cast horizons were not

  5. Uranium: the recalcitrant commodity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crowson, P.C.F.

    1989-01-01

    During the past year dollar prices of virtually every mineral commodity have risen considerably on the back of strong demand, falling stocks and rising capacity utilization. Uranium has experienced the same economic influences, but measures of conditions in uranium spot markets display drift and even further decline. Does this mean that uranium is not really a commodity after all, or have special factors been at work? Some of the economic features of the uranium market are re-examined in this context. (author)

  6. The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures prices of natural gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yahui; Liu, Li

    2018-01-01

    The lead-lag relationships between spot and futures markets are of great interest for academics. Previous studies neglect the possibility of nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry or persistence. To fill this gap, this paper uses the MF-DCCA method and the linear and nonlinear causality tests to explore the causal relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices in the New York Mercantile Exchange. We find that spot and futures prices are positive cross-correlated, the natural gas futures can linearly Granger cause spot price, and there are bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between natural gas spot and futures prices. Further, we explore the sources of nonlinear causality relationships, and find that the volatility spillover can partly explain the nonlinear causality and affect their cross-correlations.

  7. Preços de commodities e nível de atividade em uma pequena economia aberta: evidências empíricas para o estado do Espírito Santo Commodity prices and activity level in a small open economy: empirical evidence for the State of Espírito Santo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matheus Albergaria de Magalhães

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available O presente trabalho propõe-se a mensurar, empiricamente, os efeitos de variações nos preços de commodities sobre o nível de atividade do estado do Espírito Santo ao longo do tempo, assim como a comparar os impactos desses preços sobre a economia estadual vis-à-vis à economia nacional e demais estados brasileiros. Os resultados obtidos permitem identificar cinco padrões empíricos distintos: (i por conta de seu alto grau de abertura, o estado do Espírito Santo sente mais intensamente os impactos de choques nos preços de commodities do que o Brasil e outros estados; (ii resultados de testes de Granger-causalidade demonstram que preços de commodities exercem um padrão de precedência temporal sobre os níveis de atividade estadual e nacional; (iii padrão semelhante de precedência temporal também ocorre no caso de amplo conjunto de variáveis econômicas relacionadas ao estado do Espírito Santo; (iv um choque positivo nos preços de commodities faz com que o nível de atividade estadual aumente inicialmente, sofrendo uma contração em seguida, para então apresentar um aumento permanente em relação a seu nível original no longo prazo; (v resultados de um exercício de decomposição da variância demonstram que, em média, os impactos quantitativos de choques nos preços de commodities são maiores no caso estadual do que no caso nacional. Esses resultados são robustos a diversas questões de especificação, como o uso de diferentes transformações estacionárias dos dados e de distintos números de defasagens empregados em testes de Granger-causalidade. São importantes no sentido de gerarem melhor compreensão dos efeitos de oscilações nos preços de commodities sobre uma pequena economia aberta, conforme parece ser o caso do Espírito Santo.This paper aims to measure the effects of commodity price variations on output fluctuations over time in the State of Espírito Santo. The impacts of these prices on the State

  8. The Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Prices Relationship between Cotton Spot Market and Futures Market in Xinjiang

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, Liang-bin

    2011-01-01

    The thesis analyzes the causal relationship between the cotton spot, and the tendency and impact of prices of futures markets in Xinjiang by using ADF test, co-integration analysis, Granger causality test and other econometric methods in order to discuss the interacted relationship between futures market prices of cotton and spot market prices since the futures of cotton in Xinjiang go public. The results of empirical analysis show that the spot market prices of cotton and the futures market ...

  9. Agency Theory, Futures Markets and Risk Shifting in Commodity Marketing Channels

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuwornu, J.K.M.; Kuiper, W.E.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    2004-01-01

    This paper applies agency theory to access risk shifting between the principal (marketing firms) and the agent (farmers) in a food marketing channel. It compares the case in which there is a futures market available for the risk-averse agents with the case in which there is no futures trading. The

  10. Gold prices

    OpenAIRE

    Joseph G. Haubrich

    1998-01-01

    The price of gold commands attention because it serves as an indicator of general price stability or inflation. But gold is also a commodity, used in jewelry and by industry, so demand and supply affect its pricing and need to be considered when gold is a factor in monetary policy decisions.

  11. Analysis of the Relationship between Ethanol Spot and Futures Prices in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derick D. Quintino

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, an investigation and analysis are carried out in order to observe the relationship between ethanol spot and futures prices in Brazil. We adopted the Engle and Granger co-integration approach. Also, we consider the information share method proposed by Hasbrouck in order to examine the market efficiency in price discovery and information transmission. Results show that although the futures market is efficient in price discovery and information transmission, the cash market leads the long-run price discovery process. This suggests that the underlying cause of the dominance of the available market over the futures market can be attributed to the market’s relative concentration in wholesale ethanol distribution due to the formation of marketing pools by the ethanol mills, as well as the small number of distributors that control a significant portion of the market share.

  12. Comment on the UPS (and past and future downs) of the oil price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walde, T.

    2000-01-01

    Crude oil has been rising to levels over 35 US$ per barrel from the very low prices of early 1999 - close to 10 $. In real, inflation-adjusted terms, this leaves it still at a third of the prices prevailing during the peak of 1981. This trend has been accelerated currently by short-term influences market factors. Who could have forecasted such price evolution by January 1999, when crude prices were collapsing, following the series of financial crises in Asia, Russia and Brazil? The current oil price surge has been breaking once again every 'crystal ball' and mathematical model designed to predict short-or-long-term oil price evolution - foremost the models used by the international oil companies and their advisers, chastened by the embarrassment of earlier optimism. Old ghosts that used to scare the world during the energy crisis of the 1970's and 1980's are waking up again. Traditional forces that have since 1985 and throughout the whole 1990's given economic rationality to crude price behaviour, seem to be losing ground and are unable to restore a more sustainable level of oil prices. Political forces, silent since the price collapse of 1985/86, have again raised their head and bringing to the fore historic contradictions and problems never solved. This paper covers this new reality. We are too cautions to dare to forecast, but rather identify factors that have to be considered in speculating about the future evolution of oil prices. The changing weight of those factors will continue to influence the future of the oil price - without much interest (apart from the producers) when low but again greatly debated when, as now, up again. (authors)

  13. Price adjustment clauses : report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-10-01

    Price adjustment mechanisms exist to account for fluctuations in commodity or labor prices and have : been used for highway construction in 47 states. They are useful in stabilizing bid prices in times of : economic uncertainty and preventing default...

  14. Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B.; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H.

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)—a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)—in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model’s regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon—as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting. PMID:26644560

  15. Inequality, climate impacts on the future poor, and carbon prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dennig, Francis; Budolfson, Mark B; Fleurbaey, Marc; Siebert, Asher; Socolow, Robert H

    2015-12-29

    Integrated assessment models of climate and the economy provide estimates of the social cost of carbon and inform climate policy. We create a variant of the Regional Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (RICE)-a regionally disaggregated version of the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE)-in which we introduce a more fine-grained representation of economic inequalities within the model's regions. This allows us to model the common observation that climate change impacts are not evenly distributed within regions and that poorer people are more vulnerable than the rest of the population. Our results suggest that this is important to the social cost of carbon-as significant, potentially, for the optimal carbon price as the debate between Stern and Nordhaus on discounting.

  16. Analysis of the Dynamic Evolutionary Behavior of American Heating Oil Spot and Futures Price Fluctuation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huan Chen

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Heating oil is an extremely important heating fuel to consumers in northeastern United States. This paper studies the fluctuations law and dynamic behavior of heating oil spot and futures prices by setting up their complex network models based on the data of America in recent 30 years. Firstly, modes are defined by the method of coarse graining, the spot price fluctuation network of heating oil (HSPFN and its futures price fluctuation network (HFPFN in different periods are established to analyze the transformation characteristics between the modes. Secondly, several indicators are investigated: average path length, node strength and strength distribution, betweeness, etc. In addition, a function is established to measure and analyze the network similarity. The results show the cumulative time of new nodes appearing in either spot or futures price network is not random but exhibits a growth trend of straight line. Meanwhile, the power law distributions of spot and futures price fluctuations in different periods present regularity and complexity. Moreover, these prices are strongly correlated in stable fluctuation period but weak in the phase of sharp fluctuation. Finally, the time distribution characteristics of important modes in the networks and the evolution results of the topological properties mentioned above are obtained.

  17. The effect of ethanol listing on corn prices: Evidence from spot and futures markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Rıza; Kutan, Ali M.; Shen, Fanglin

    2012-01-01

    The use of corn for ethanol has been the topic of heated discussions in the media and among policy makers. As part of this debate, some observers have argued that the use of corn in the production of ethanol has had adverse effects on corn prices. This paper contributes to this reviving debate by examining the impact of the listing of ethanol futures in the Chicago Board of Trade on the spot and futures prices for corn. We find a significant listing effect, indicating that the listing of ethanol has had a positive contribution to both price and volatility in the corn market, especially in the spot and the shorter maturity futures contracts, and mostly through its interaction with trading volume in the corn market. We discuss the policy implications of the findings for investors and its relevance for the ongoing debate on US energy policy. We conclude with some suggestions for future research.

  18. A note on the conditional correlation between energy prices: Evidence from future markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marzo, Massimiliano; Zagaglia, Paolo

    2008-01-01

    We model the joint movements of daily returns on one-month futures for crude oil, heating oil and natural gas through the multivariate GARCH with dynamic conditional correlations and elliptical distributions introduced by Pelagatti and Rondena [Pelagatti, M.M., Rondena, S., 2007. 'Dynamic Conditional Correlation with Elliptical Distributions', unpublished manuscript. Universita di Milano - Bicocca, August]. Futures prices of crude and heating oil covary strongly. The conditional correlation between the futures prices of natural gas and crude oil has been rising over the last 5 years. However, this correlation has been low on average over two thirds of the sample, suggesting that future markets have no established tradition of pricing natural gas as a function of developments on oil markets. (author)

  19. Arbitrage free pricing of forward and futures in the energy market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kloster, Kristian

    2003-07-01

    This thesis will describe a method for an arbitrage-free evaluation of forward and futures contracts in the Nordic electricity market. This is a market where it is not possible to hedge using the underlying asset which one normally would do. The electricity market is a relatively new market, and is less developed than the financial markets. The pricing of energy and energy derivatives are depending on factors like production, transport, storage etc. There are different approaches when pricing a forward contract in an energy market. With motivation from interest rate theory, one could model the forward prices directly in the risk neutral world. Another approach is to start out with a model for the spot prices in the physical world, and then derive theoretical forward prices, which then are fitted to observed forward prices. These and other approaches are described by Clewlow and Strickland in their book, Energy derivatives. This thesis uses the approach where I start out with a model for the spot price, and then derive theoretical forward prices. I use a generalization of the multifactor Schwartz model with seasonal trends and Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes to model the spot prices for electricity. This continuous-time model also incorporates mean-reversion, which is an important aspect of energy prices. Historical data for the spot prices is used to estimate my variables in the multi-factor Schwartz model. Then one can specify arbitrage-free prices for forward and futures based on the Schwartz model. The result from this procedure is a joint spot and forward price model in both the risk neutral and physical market, together with knowledge of the equivalent martingale measure chosen by the market. This measure can be interpreted as the market price of risk, which is of interest for risk management. In this setup both futures and forward contracts will have the same pricing dynamics, as the only difference between the two types of contracts is how the payment for the

  20. Arbitrage free pricing of forward and futures in the energy market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kloster, Kristian

    2003-01-01

    This thesis will describe a method for an arbitrage-free evaluation of forward and futures contracts in the Nordic electricity market. This is a market where it is not possible to hedge using the underlying asset which one normally would do. The electricity market is a relatively new market, and is less developed than the financial markets. The pricing of energy and energy derivatives are depending on factors like production, transport, storage etc. There are different approaches when pricing a forward contract in an energy market. With motivation from interest rate theory, one could model the forward prices directly in the risk neutral world. Another approach is to start out with a model for the spot prices in the physical world, and then derive theoretical forward prices, which then are fitted to observed forward prices. These and other approaches are described by Clewlow and Strickland in their book, Energy derivatives. This thesis uses the approach where I start out with a model for the spot price, and then derive theoretical forward prices. I use a generalization of the multifactor Schwartz model with seasonal trends and Ornstein Uhlenbeck processes to model the spot prices for electricity. This continuous-time model also incorporates mean-reversion, which is an important aspect of energy prices. Historical data for the spot prices is used to estimate my variables in the multi-factor Schwartz model. Then one can specify arbitrage-free prices for forward and futures based on the Schwartz model. The result from this procedure is a joint spot and forward price model in both the risk neutral and physical market, together with knowledge of the equivalent martingale measure chosen by the market. This measure can be interpreted as the market price of risk, which is of interest for risk management. In this setup both futures and forward contracts will have the same pricing dynamics, as the only difference between the two types of contracts is how the payment for the

  1. Oil prices: The role of refinery utilization, futures markets and non-linearities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaufmann, Robert K.; Mann, Michael; Dees, Stephane; Gasteuil, Audrey

    2008-01-01

    We test the hypothesis that real oil prices are determined in part by refinery capacity, non-linearities in supply conditions, and/or expectations and that observed changes in these variables can account for the rise in prices between 2004 and 2006. Results indicate that the refining sector plays an important role in the recent price increase, but not in the way described by many analysts. The relationship is negative such that higher refinery utilization rates reduce crude oil prices. This effect is associated with shifts in the production of heavy and light grades of crude oil and price spreads between them. Non-linear relationships between OPEC capacity and oil prices as well as conditions on the futures markets also account for changes in real oil prices. Together, these factors allow the model to generate a one-step ahead out-of-sample forecast that performs as well as forecasts implied by far-month contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange and is able to account for much of the $27 rise in crude oil prices between 2004 and 2006. (author)

  2. Comparative Analysis of Discovery Function of Cotton Future Price among Different Regions - a Case Study of Xinjian

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Cheng-you; Yang, Hong; Liu, Chun-yu

    2011-01-01

    Through comparative analysis, we research the relationship between cotton future price and cotton spot price in different regions, in order to formulate corresponding strategies in different regions under the new situation. We use ADF unit root test, E-G two-step co-integration test, Granger causality test, and other research methods in Eviews 5.0 statistical software, to empirically study the relationship between the cotton future price and cotton spot price in Xinjiang, the relationship bet...

  3. Interval Forecasting of Carbon Futures Prices Using a Novel Hybrid Approach with Exogenous Variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Zhang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper examines the interval forecasting of carbon futures prices in one of the most important carbon futures market. Specifically, the purpose of this study is to present a novel hybrid approach, which is composed of multioutput support vector regression (MSVR and particle swarm optimization (PSO, in the task of forecasting the highest and lowest prices of carbon futures on the next trading day. Furthermore, we set out to investigate if considering some potential predictors, which have strong influence on carbon futures prices, in modeling process is useful for achieving better prediction performance. Aiming at testing its effectiveness, we benchmark the forecasting performance of our approach against four competitors. The daily interval prices of carbon futures contracts traded in the Intercontinental Futures Exchange from August 12, 2010, to November 13, 2014, are used as the experiment dataset. The statistical significance of the interval forecasts is examined. The proposed hybrid approach is found to demonstrate the higher forecasting performance relative to all other competitors. Our application offers practitioners a promising set of results with interval forecasting in carbon futures market.

  4. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures. PMID:26571135

  5. Study on Market Stability and Price Limit of Chinese Stock Index Futures Market: An Agent-Based Modeling Perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiong, Xiong; Nan, Ding; Yang, Yang; Yongjie, Zhang

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a method of managing the risk of the stock index futures market and the cross-market through analyzing the effectiveness of price limits on the Chinese Stock Index 300 futures market. We adopt a cross-market artificial financial market (include the stock market and the stock index futures market) as a platform on which to simulate the operation of the CSI 300 futures market by changing the settings of price limits. After comparing the market stability under different price limits by appropriate liquidity and volatility indicators, we find that enhancing price limits or removing price limits both play a negative impact on market stability. In contrast, a positive impact exists on market stability if the existing price limit is maintained (increase of limit by10%, down by 10%) or it is broadened to a proper extent. Our study provides reasonable advice for a price limit setting and risk management for CSI 300 futures.

  6. Essays on modeling derivative claims. Essay titles: Essay 1. Modeling energy commodity futures: Is seasonality part of it? Essay 2. Modeling corporate liabilities under regime-switching asset volatility

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorova, Milena

    Essay 1. The paper analyzes the price dynamics of two commodity futures prices---crude oil and natural gas. Some of the latest models of commodity prices are tested here---the two-factor model of Schwartz-Smith (2000), which nests other important models developed earlier. The two-factor model includes a mean-reverting short-term deviation and uncertain equilibrium level to which prices gravitate. The Schwartz-Smith two-factor model is the base case model in the paper. The model parameters of the Schwartz-Smith two-factor model are estimated from traded futures on natural gas and crude oil, using the fixed maturity format I create for futures prices. Analysis of the variance structure of natural gas prices suggests seasonality. The model is estimated on seasonally adjusted data. Model-based seasonality approaches are developed---seasonal dummies and a three-factor model with a stochastic seasonality component of log spot prices. The prediction ability of the various parameterized and non-parameterized versions of models with seasonality is compared in-sample and out-of-sample. The volatility functions model, based on principal components extraction from daily data, with seasonality in short-term volatility, seems to have the best forecasting ability, followed by the two-factor model on Kendall-type deseasonalized data and the seasonal dummies specification. Essay 2. This paper contributes to the extant structural model literature by introducing a time-varying risk-shifting barrier, to model asset substitution, and studying its theoretical and empirical implications on corporate credit spreads. Risk-shifting is expected to affect the default component of corporate spreads, because by switching to a higher level of asset volatility, managers precipitate the onset of distress and endogenously alter the probability of default. I test cross-sectionally whether the risk of volatility regime switching, measured by agency cost, is priced in market corporate spreads. The

  7. Lead-lag effects between Brent Crude Futures and its respective spot prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diego Garcia Angelico

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This article aims the analyses of the causality and temporal precedence relationships between the spot and futures prices of Brent oil, those last ones inherent to financial markets. In order to achieve this objective, the main tools used were: Johansen cointegration test; Granger causality/Block Exogeneity Wald test (GCBEW; generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition of forecast errors, those three last ones were estimated based in a Vector Error Correction Model (VEC, adjusted to the analyzed variables. The results indicated that, for the stipulated period, there was a pricing lightweight leadership from the futures contracts to the prices of spot market. However, as a conclusion of the article, the understanding is that this small difference, calculated in several econometric tools, cannot be considered enough to indicate that the Brent oil future market would be distorting its respective spot prices, despite the economic fundamentals of the physical market, such as production, consumption and stockpiling processes. Therefore, management decisions in industries exposed to crude oil prices should be aware of both physical and future markets’ prospections.

  8. Commodity risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hilary Till

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

  9. Commodity risk management

    OpenAIRE

    Hilary Till

    2016-01-01

    This article discusses the practical issues involved in applying a disciplined risk management methodology to commodity futures trading. Accordingly, the paper shows how to apply methodologies derived from both conventional asset management and hedge fund management to futures trading. The article also discusses some of the risk management issues that are unique to leveraged futures trading.

  10. Prices for fuel oil on the product market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-04-01

    Prices quoted during the last few weeks for fuel oil and gas oil on the ARA market, on the New York future market, by the Berlin price supervision authority, fob Tw from German storage or refinery, and on the German commodity markets for fuel oil are listed.

  11. A model for interprovincial air pollution control based on futures prices.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Laijun; Xue, Jian; Gao, Huaizhu Oliver; Li, Changmin; Huang, Rongbing

    2014-05-01

    Based on the current status of research on tradable emission rights futures, this paper introduces basic market-related assumptions for China's interprovincial air pollution control problem. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices: the model calculated the spot price of emission rights using a classic futures pricing formula, and determined the identities of buyers and sellers for various provinces according to a partitioning criterion, thereby revealing five trading markets. To ensure interprovincial cooperation, a rational allocation result for the benefits from this model was achieved using the Shapley value method to construct an optimal reduction program and to determine the optimal annual decisions for each province. Finally, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was used as a case study, as this region has recently experienced serious pollution. It was found that the model reduced the overall cost of reducing SO2 pollution. Moreover, each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction, resulting in a win-win solution. Adopting the model would therefore enhance regional cooperation and promote the control of China's air pollution. The authors construct an interprovincial air pollution control model based on futures prices. The Shapley value method is used to rationally allocate the cooperation benefit. Interprovincial pollution control reduces the overall reduction cost of SO2. Each province can lower its cost for air pollution reduction by cooperation.

  12. Multifactor valuation models of energy futures and options on futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertus, Mark J.

    The intent of this dissertation is to investigate continuous time pricing models for commodity derivative contracts that consider mean reversion. The motivation for pricing commodity futures and option on futures contracts leads to improved practical risk management techniques in markets where uncertainty is increasing. In the dissertation closed-form solutions to mean reverting one-factor, two-factor, three-factor Brownian motions are developed for futures contracts. These solutions are obtained through risk neutral pricing methods that yield tractable expressions for futures prices, which are linear in the state variables, hence making them attractive for estimation. These functions, however, are expressed in terms of latent variables (i.e. spot prices, convenience yield) which complicate the estimation of the futures pricing equation. To address this complication a discussion on Dynamic factor analysis is given. This procedure documents latent variables using a Kalman filter and illustrations show how this technique may be used for the analysis. In addition, to the futures contracts closed form solutions for two option models are obtained. Solutions to the one- and two-factor models are tailored solutions of the Black-Scholes pricing model. Furthermore, since these contracts are written on the futures contracts, they too are influenced by the same underlying parameters of the state variables used to price the futures contracts. To conclude, the analysis finishes with an investigation of commodity futures options that incorporate random discrete jumps.

  13. Commodities and Stock Investment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study is a multivariate analysis of commodities and stock investment in a newly established market scenario. Return distribution asymmetry is examined with higher order movements. Skewness in commodity future’s return is largely insignificant, whereas kurtosis is highly significant for both stock and commodity future contracts. Correlation analysis is done with Pearson’s and Kendall’s tau measures. Commodities provide significant diversification benefits when added in a portfolio of stocks. Compared with stocks, commodity future’s returns show stronger correlation with unexpected inflation. The volatility is measured through Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GJR-GARCH model and reflects that commodities have inverted asymmetric behavior, that is, more impact from the upward shocks compared with downward. Stocks have asymmetric volatility, that is, more impact from negative shocks compared with positive. Gold has highest inverted asymmetric volatility. Tail dependence, measured through Student’s t copula, shows no combined downside movement. In conclusion, commodity investments provide diversification and inflation protection.

  14. A non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Benth, Fred Espen; Pircalabu, Anca

    2018-01-01

    The recent introduction of wind power futures written on the German wind power production index has brought with it new interesting challenges in terms of modeling and pricing. Some particularities of this product are the strong seasonal component embedded in the underlying, the fact that the wind...... index is bounded from both above and below, and also that the futures are settled against a synthetically generated spot index. Here, we consider the non-Gaussian Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type processes proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) in the context of modeling the wind power production...... index. We discuss the properties of the model and estimation of the model parameters. Further, the model allows for an analytical formula for pricing wind power futures. We provide an empirical study, where the model is calibrated to 37 years of German wind power production index that is synthetically...

  15. 17 CFR 33.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option transactions. 33.3 Section 33.3 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION REGULATION OF DOMESTIC EXCHANGE-TRADED COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 33.3 Unlawful commodity option...

  16. 17 CFR 32.3 - Unlawful commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Unlawful commodity option transactions. 32.3 Section 32.3 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.3 Unlawful commodity option transactions. (a) On and after...

  17. 17 CFR 32.11 - Suspension of commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Suspension of commodity option transactions. 32.11 Section 32.11 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.11 Suspension of commodity option transactions. (a...

  18. 17 CFR 31.6 - Registration of leverage commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Registration of leverage commodities. 31.6 Section 31.6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION LEVERAGE TRANSACTIONS § 31.6 Registration of leverage commodities. (a) Registration of leverage commodities...

  19. Correlations between energy economy and housing market prices in the EU-impacts on future sustainability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maassen Maria Alexandra

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The global economic system is facing multiple challenges in terms of social development, technology and innovation, as well as sustainability needs. As a result, the value of existing assets is changing globally depending on the scarcity, necessity and effects on the business field leading to increased prices of traditional sources of energy and increased competition in the economic field. Thus, the EU energy market has progressed in reducing its dependence on external energy sourcing, by increasing production of renewable energy, such as wind or solar, as well as by further integration of the electric grid. Based on the Pearson coefficient this article intends to research the correlations between the economic, energy and house prices in recent years and the future possible impacts depending on their evolution. For example, gas prices in the past decade increasing household costs in most countries due to the dependence on third parties for energy, lead to the need of increasing the share of renewable energy in total energy consumption, which have consequently decreased electricity prices since 2008. However, this development has still not solved the additional costs issue of households due to the new technologies implemented although wind and solar energy receive in general low margins. Such energy issues, as well as the increased housing prices after the financial crisis in 2008 have caused on their own an additional burden on the economy and households spending income in the next years following.

  20. Risks in Commodity and Currency Markets

    OpenAIRE

    Bozovic, Milos

    2009-01-01

    This thesis analyzes market risk factors in commodity and currency markets. It focuses on the impact of extreme events on the prices of financial products traded in these markets, and on the overall market risk faced by the investors. The first chapter develops a simple two-factor jump-diffusion model for valuation of contingent claims on commodities in order to investigate the pricing implications of shocks that are exogenous to this market. The second chapter analyzes the nature and pricing...

  1. The changing dynamics between biofuels and commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bole, T.; Londo, H.M.

    2008-06-01

    The recent development of the biofuel industries coincides with significant increases in prices of basic commodities such as food and feed. Against popular perception, it appears that there is not a straightforward causal relationship between the two; there are a number of factors that determine the level and strength of the impact of the biofuels sector on other commodities. For the case of markets of agricultural raw material these factors include the amount of feedstock claimed by the biofuels industry, its relative purchasing power, the responsiveness of the agricultural sector to price incentives and availability of substitutes. For consumer food markets we must additionally consider the relative share of agricultural input costs in the retail food price and the demand elasticity. Based on the analysis of these factors and estimates of other studies that attempted to quantify the price impacts of biofuels on crop prices, we conclude that the impact of biofuels is relatively small, especially when compared with other causes that triggered the recent price increases. We end the paper with a recommendation for future efforts in curbing food price inflations while keeping ambitious biofuel targets and suggest a shift in focus of the debate around the social costs of biofuels

  2. Optimization of a Future RLV Business Case using Multiple Strategic Market Prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charania, A.; Olds, J. R.

    2002-01-01

    There is a lack of depth in the current paradigm of conceptual level economic models used to evaluate the value and viability of future capital projects such as a commercial reusable launch vehicle (RLV). Current modeling methods assume a single price is charged to all customers, public or private, in order to optimize the economic metrics of interest. This assumption may not be valid given the different utility functions for space services of public and private entities. The government's requirements are generally more inflexible than its commercial counterparts. A government's launch schedules are much more rigid, choices of international launch services restricted, and launch specifications generally more stringent as well as numerous. These requirements generally make the government's demand curve more inelastic. Subsequently, a launch vehicle provider will charge a higher price (launch price per kg) to the government and may obtain a higher level of financial profit compared to an equivalent a commercial payload. This profit is not a sufficient condition to enable RLV development by itself but can help in making the financial situation slightly better. An RLV can potentially address multiple payload markets; each market has a different price elasticity of demand for both the commercial and government customer. Thus, a more resilient examination of the economic landscape requires optimization of multiple prices in which each price affects a different demand curve. Such an examination is performed here using the Cost and Business Analysis Module (CABAM), an MS-Excel spreadsheet-based model that attempts to couple both the demand and supply for space transportation services in the future. The demand takes the form of market assumptions (both near-term and far-term) and the supply comes from user-defined vehicles that are placed into the model. CABAM represents RLV projects as commercial endeavors with the possibility to model the effects of government

  3. The Information Content of Treasury Bond Options Concerning Future Volatility and Price Jumps

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Busch, Thomas; Christensen, Bent Jesper; Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard

    We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realizedvolatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures.Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric statisticaltech......We study the relation between realized and implied volatility in the bond market. Realizedvolatility is constructed from high-frequency (5-minute) returns on 30 year Treasury bond futures.Implied volatility is backed out from prices of associated bond options. Recent nonparametric...... components. We also introduce a new vector HAR (VecHAR) modelfor the resulting simultaneous system, controlling for possible endogeneity of implied volatility inthe forecasting equations. We show that implied volatility is a biased and inefficient forecast in thebond market. However, implied volatility does...

  4. The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices. A multivariate threshold regression approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Bwo-Nung; Yang, C.W.; Hwang, M.J.

    2009-01-01

    This paper segments daily data from January of 1986 to April of 2007 into three periods based on certain important events. Both periods I and II indicate that the spot prices in general are higher than futures prices as was well-known in the literature. Only period-III (2001/9/11-2007/4/30) displays a reverse phenomenon: futures prices, in general, exceed spot prices. When the absolute value of a basis (futures-spot) is greater than the threshold value in the arbitrage area (regime 1 and 3), at least one of the error correction coefficients, representing adjustment towards equilibrium, is statistically significant. That is, there exists a tendency in the oil market in which prices move toward equilibrium. With respect to the short-run dynamic interaction between spot price change ((delta)s t ) and futures price change ((delta)f t ), our results indicate that when the spot price is higher than futures price, and the basis is less than certain threshold value (regime 3), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Conversely, when the futures price is higher than spot price and the basis is higher than certain threshold value (regime 1), there exists at least one causal relationship between (delta)s t and (delta)f t . Finally, we use the method suggested by Diebold and Mariano [Diebold, Francis X., Mariano, Roberto S., 1995. Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (3), 253-263] to compare the predictive power between the linear and nonlinear models. Our empirical results indicate that the in-sample prediction of the nonlinear model is clearly superior to that of the linear model. (author)

  5. The dynamics of a nonlinear relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices. A multivariate threshold regression approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Bwo-Nung [Department of Economics and Center for IADF, National Chung Cheng University, Chiayi 621 (China); Department of Economics, West Virginia University, Morgantown, WV 26505-6025 (United States); Yang, C.W. [Department of Economics, Clarion University of Pennsylvania, Clarion, PA 16214-1232 (United States); Hwang, M.J. [Department of Economics, College of Business and Economics, West Virginia University, P. O. Box 6025, Morgantown, WV 26505-6025 (United States)

    2009-01-15

    This paper segments daily data from January of 1986 to April of 2007 into three periods based on certain important events. Both periods I and II indicate that the spot prices in general are higher than futures prices as was well-known in the literature. Only period-III (2001/9/11-2007/4/30) displays a reverse phenomenon: futures prices, in general, exceed spot prices. When the absolute value of a basis (futures-spot) is greater than the threshold value in the arbitrage area (regime 1 and 3), at least one of the error correction coefficients, representing adjustment towards equilibrium, is statistically significant. That is, there exists a tendency in the oil market in which prices move toward equilibrium. With respect to the short-run dynamic interaction between spot price change ({delta}s{sub t}) and futures price change ({delta}f{sub t}), our results indicate that when the spot price is higher than futures price, and the basis is less than certain threshold value (regime 3), there exists at least one causal relationship between {delta}s{sub t} and {delta}f{sub t}. Conversely, when the futures price is higher than spot price and the basis is higher than certain threshold value (regime 1), there exists at least one causal relationship between {delta}s{sub t} and {delta}f{sub t}. Finally, we use the method suggested by Diebold and Mariano [Diebold, Francis X., Mariano, Roberto S., 1995. Comparing predictive accuracy. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 13 (3), 253-263] to compare the predictive power between the linear and nonlinear models. Our empirical results indicate that the in-sample prediction of the nonlinear model is clearly superior to that of the linear model. (author)

  6. Impact of future price increase on ordering policies for deteriorating items under quadratic demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nita H. Shah

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available When a supplier announces a price increase at a certain time in the future, for each retailer it is important to choose whether to purchase supplementary stock to take benefit of the current lower price or procure at a new price. This article focuses on the possible effects of price increase on a retailer’s replenishment strategy for constant deterioration of items. Here, quadratic demand is debated; which is appropriate for the products for which demand increases initially and subsequently it starts to decrease with the new version of the substitute. We discuss two scenarios in this study: (I when the special order time coincides with the retailer’s replenishment time and (II when the special order time falls during the retailer’s sales period. We determine an optimal ordering policy for each case by maximizing total cost savings between special and regular orders during the depletion time of the special order quantity. Scenarios are established and illustrated with numerical examples. Through, sensitivity analysis important inventory parameters are classified. Graphical results, in two and three dimensions, are exhibited with supervisory decision.

  7. Trends in economic scarcity of U.S. timber commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    K. E. Skog; C. D. Risbrudt

    Prompted by continuing concern that timber-based commodities are becoming increasingly scarce, this paper presents information on changes in real prices (prices deflated by the general producer price index) of timber commodities as potential indicators of economic scarcity. Data updating previous studies are shown for sawlog stumpage, delivered sawlogs, and lumber;...

  8. Identifying water price and population criteria for meeting future urban water demand targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ashoori, Negin; Dzombak, David A.; Small, Mitchell J.

    2017-12-01

    Predictive models for urban water demand can help identify the set of factors that must be satisfied in order to meet future targets for water demand. Some of the explanatory variables used in such models, such as service area population and changing temperature and rainfall rates, are outside the immediate control of water planners and managers. Others, such as water pricing and the intensity of voluntary water conservation efforts, are subject to decisions and programs implemented by the water utility. In order to understand this relationship, a multiple regression model fit to 44 years of monthly demand data (1970-2014) for Los Angeles, California was applied to predict possible future demand through 2050 under alternative scenarios for the explanatory variables: population, price, voluntary conservation efforts, and temperature and precipitation outcomes predicted by four global climate models with two CO2 emission scenarios. Future residential water demand in Los Angeles is projected to be largely driven by price and population rather than climate change and conservation. A median projection for the year 2050 indicates that residential water demand in Los Angeles will increase by approximately 36 percent, to a level of 620 million m3 per year. The Monte Carlo simulations of the fitted model for water demand were then used to find the set of conditions in the future for which water demand is predicted to be above or below the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power 2035 goal to reduce residential water demand by 25%. Results indicate that increases in price can not ensure that the 2035 water demand target can be met when population increases. Los Angeles must rely on furthering their conservation initiatives and increasing their use of stormwater capture, recycled water, and expanding their groundwater storage. The forecasting approach developed in this study can be utilized by other cities to understand the future of water demand in water-stressed areas

  9. Predictability and Market Efficiency in Agricultural Futures Markets: a Perspective from Price-Volume Correlation Based on Wavelet Coherency Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Ling-Yun; Wen, Xing-Chun

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we use a time-frequency domain technique, namely, wavelet squared coherency, to examine the associations between the trading volumes of three agricultural futures and three different forms of these futures' daily closing prices, i.e. prices, returns and volatilities, over the past several years. These agricultural futures markets are selected from China as a typical case of the emerging countries, and from the US as a representative of the developed economies. We investigate correlations and lead-lag relationships between the trading volumes and the prices to detect the predictability and efficiency of these futures markets. The results suggest that the information contained in the trading volumes of the three agricultural futures markets in China can be applied to predict the prices or returns, while that in US has extremely weak predictive power for prices or returns. We also conduct the wavelet analysis on the relationships between the volumes and returns or volatilities to examine the existence of the two "stylized facts" proposed by Karpoff [J. M. Karpoff, The relation between price changes and trading volume: A survey, J. Financ. Quant. Anal.22(1) (1987) 109-126]. Different markets in the two countries perform differently in reproducing the two stylized facts. As the wavelet tools can decode nonlinear regularities and hidden patterns behind price-volume relationship in time-frequency space, different from the conventional econometric framework, this paper offers a new perspective into the market predictability and efficiency.

  10. The speculative activity of the investment funds in the NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange) oil future prices formation; A atividade especulativa dos fundos de investimento na formacao dos precos futuros de petroleo no NYMEX (New York Mercantile Exchange)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Amin, Mario Miguel [Universidade da Amazonia (UNAMA), Manaus, AM (Brazil); Luczynski, Estanislau [Universidade Federal do Para (UFPA), Belem, PA (Brazil). Inst. de Geociencias

    2008-07-01

    The increase in the NYMEX future's market oil prices can be explained not only by traditional economic fundamentals of demand and supply, but also by the significant speculative participation of the Investment Funds, as measured by the extraordinary increase in the non-commercial spread traders' open interest positions, as published by the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The open interest increased from 66,234 in May 23, 2000, to 974,159 on May 13, 2008. On that day, the NYMEX reached the historic quantity of 3,149,667 contracts, being the spread trading responsible for 31% of that total. In terms of market liquidity, that percentage represented US$ 119,8 millions applied in the oil futures market. Given the availability of information from the NYMEX and CFTC, the objective of the study was to identify the participation, position and level of influence of the Investment Funds in the determination of international oil prices during the 2000 to 2008 period. The results of the analysis of the international oil prices behavior, in the NYMEX, show that a large portion of the price volatility, during the period 2000 to 2008, and more specifically in 2006 through 2008, was due to the significant process of speculation by the Investment Funds. Needing to recover the losses caused by the subprimes crisis, by the drop in the Wall Street's stock value and, specially, by the intense dollar devaluation in recent years, the Investment Funds sought cover in the commodities market, particularly in the oil futures market. (author)

  11. Venetian Commodities

    OpenAIRE

    Fisker, Anna Marie

    2017-01-01

    Sugar now average but once exorbitant exclusive and only for the few, this decadent sweetness was used in Venice during the Renaissance to the building of sugar sculptures, pieces known as trionfi di zucchero or trionfi di tavola.My proposal deals with the soft commodity of sugar, the history of sugar as art in the Venetian Renaissance were it can be observed as a perceived reality through paintings and detailed descriptions in historical documents.Venice created an institutional basis for co...

  12. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maurice, J.

    2001-01-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  13. 17 CFR 14.4 - Violation of Commodity Exchange Act.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Violation of Commodity Exchange Act. 14.4 Section 14.4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION RULES RELATING TO SUSPENSION OR DISBARMENT FROM APPEARANCE AND PRACTICE § 14.4 Violation of Commodity...

  14. Price quotes for oil. AFM - quotes for gas oil and fuel oil on the ARA market

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1981-05-01

    Prices quoted during the last few weeks for fuel oil and gas oil on the ARA market, on the New York future market, by the Berlin price supervision authority, FOB TW from German storage or refinery, and on the German commodity markets for fuel oil are listed.

  15. Introduction and Utilization of High Priced HCV Medicines across Europe; Implications for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Bruijn, Winnie; Ibáñez, Cristina; Frisk, Pia; Bak Pedersen, Hanne; Alkan, Ali; Vella Bonanno, Patricia; Brkičić, Ljiljana S.; Bucsics, Anna; Dedet, Guillaume; Eriksen, Jaran; Fadare, Joseph O.; Fürst, Jurij; Gallego, Gisselle; Godói, Isabella P.; Guerra Júnior, Augusto A.; Gürsöz, Hakkı; Jan, Saira; Jones, Jan; Joppi, Roberta; Kerman, Saim; Laius, Ott; Madzikwa, Newman; Magnússon, Einar; Maticic, Mojca; Markovic-Pekovic, Vanda; Massele, Amos; Ogunleye, Olayinka; O'Leary, Aisling; Piessnegger, Jutta; Sermet, Catherine; Simoens, Steven; Tiroyakgosi, Celda; Truter, Ilse; Thyberg, Magnus; Tomekova, Kristina; Wladysiuk, Magdalena; Vandoros, Sotiris; Vural, Elif H.; Zara, Corinne; Godman, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Background: Infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) is a widespread transmittable disease with a diagnosed prevalence of 2.0%. Fortunately, it is now curable in most patients. Sales of medicines to treat HCV infection grew 2.7% per year between 2004 and 2011, enhanced by the launch of the protease inhibitors (PIs) boceprevir (BCV) and telaprevir (TVR) in addition to ribavirin and pegylated interferon (pegIFN). Costs will continue to rise with new treatments including sofosbuvir, which now include interferon free regimens. Objective: Assess the uptake of BCV and TVR across Europe from a health authority perspective to offer future guidance on dealing with new high cost medicines. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of medicines to treat HCV (pegIFN, ribavirin, BCV and TVR) among European countries from 2008 to 2013. Utilization measured in defined daily doses (DDDs)/1000 patients/quarter (DIQs) and expenditure in Euros/DDD. Health authority activities to influence treatments categorized using the 4E methodology (Education, Engineering, Economics and Enforcement). Results: Similar uptake of BCV and TVR among European countries and regions, ranging from 0.5 DIQ in Denmark, Netherlands and Slovenia to 1.5 DIQ in Tayside and Catalonia in 2013. However, different utilization of the new PIs vs. ribavirin indicates differences in dual vs. triple therapy, which is down to factors including physician preference and genotypes. Reimbursed prices for BCV and TVR were comparable across countries. Conclusion: There was reasonable consistency in the utilization of BCV and TVR among European countries in comparison with other high priced medicines. This may reflect the social demand to limit the transmission of HCV. However, the situation is changing with new curative medicines for HCV genotype 1 (GT1) with potentially an appreciable budget impact. These concerns have resulted in different prices across countries, with their impact on budgets and patient outcomes

  16. Introduction and utilisation of high priced HCV medicines across Europe; implications for the future

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Winnie de Bruijn

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Background: Infection with the Hepatitis C Virus (HCV is a widespread transmittable disease with a diagnosed prevalence of 2.0%. Fortunately, it is now curable in most patients. Sales of medicines to treat HCV infection grew 2.7% per year between 2004 and 2011, enhanced by the launch of the protease inhibitors (PIs boceprevir (BCV and telaprevir (TVR in addition to ribavirin and pegylated interferon (pegIFN. Costs will continue to rise with new treatments including sofosbuvir, which now include interferon free regimens. Objective: Assess the uptake of BCV and TVR across Europe from a health authority perspective to offer future guidance on dealing with new high cost medicines. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study of medicines to treat HCV (pegIFN, ribavirin, BCV and TVR among European countries from 2008 to 2013. Utilisation measured in defined daily doses (DDDs/ 1000 patients/ quarter (DIQs and expenditure in Euros/ DDD. Health authority activities to influence treatments categorised using the 4E methodology (Education, Engineering, Economics and Enforcement. Results: Similar uptake of BCV and TVR among European countries and regions, ranging from 0.5 DIQ in Denmark, Netherlands and Slovenia to 1.5 DIQ in Tayside and Catalonia in 2013. However, different utilisation of the new PIs versus ribavirin indicates differences in dual versus triple therapy, which is down to factors including physician preference and genotypes. Reimbursed prices for BCV and TVR were comparable across countries. Conclusion: There was reasonable consistency in the utilisation of BCV and TVR among European countries in comparison with other high priced medicines. This may reflect the social demand to limit the transmission of HCV. However, the situation is changing with new curative medicines for HCV genotype 1 (GT1 with potentially an appreciable budget impact. These concerns have resulted in different prices negotiations across countries, with their impact

  17. variances in consumers prices of selected food items among ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Admin

    For an individual commodity, the changes in non- price related factors cause instability in the price of the product. Product price instability among agricultural commodities is a regular phenomenon in markets across Nigeria (Akpan,. 2007). Instability in commodity prices among markets could be detrimental to the marketing.

  18. Spot Markets Indices as Benchmarks of Formation of Future Price Trends in the Power Exchanges of Eastern Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polikevych Nataliya I.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The article is concerned with a theoretical generalization of the use of indices for electric power at the European spot exchanges and elaborating proposals on establishment of a similar spot index for the Ukrainian power exchange. 16 indices that are published daily by the power exchanges BSP Regional Energy Exchange, Power Exchange Central Europe, Polish Power Exchange and Opcom have been analyzed. It has been indicated that these indices are used for electricity price forecasting and monitoring the situation in the power market. The article examines the way spot indices are calculated by power exchanges, based on the value of the arithmetic average of market prices «day ahead». Imperfection of such way of calculation for price index values has been substantiated. The key characteristics of the future price index for Ukrainian spot market as benchmarks within the introduction of futures contracts for electricity have been identified.

  19. Application of Markov Model in Crude Oil Price Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nuhu Isah

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Crude oil is an important energy commodity to mankind. Several causes have made crude oil prices to be volatile. The fluctuation of crude oil prices has affected many related sectors and stock market indices. Hence, forecasting the crude oil prices is essential to avoid the future prices of the non-renewable natural resources to rise. In this study, daily crude oil prices data was obtained from WTI dated 2 January to 29 May 2015. We used Markov Model (MM approach in forecasting the crude oil prices. In this study, the analyses were done using EViews and Maple software where the potential of this software in forecasting daily crude oil prices time series data was explored. Based on the study, we concluded that MM model is able to produce accurate forecast based on a description of history patterns in crude oil prices.

  20. Potential of building-scale alternative energy to alleviate risk from the future price of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bristow, David; Kennedy, Christopher A.

    2010-01-01

    The energy used for building operations, the associated greenhouse gas emissions, and the uncertainties in future price of natural gas and electricity can be a cause of concern for building owners and policy makers. In this work we explore the potential of building-scale alternative energy technologies to reduce demand and emissions while also shielding building owners from the risks associated with fluctuations in the price of natural gas and grid electricity. We analyze the monetary costs and benefits over the life cycle of five technologies (photovoltaic and wind electricity generation, solar air and water heating, and ground source heat pumps) over three audience or building types (homeowners, small businesses, large commercial and institutional entities). The analysis includes a Monte Carlo analysis to measure risk that can be compared to other investment opportunities. The results indicate that under government incentives and climate of Toronto, Canada, the returns are relatively high for small degrees of risks for a number of technologies. Ground source heat pumps prove to be exceptionally good investments in terms of their energy savings, emission, reductions, and economics, while the bigger buildings tend also to be better economic choices for the use of these technologies.

  1. Constellation Commodities Studies Summary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dirschka, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Constellation program was NASA's long-term program for space exploration. The goal of the commodities studies was to solicit industry expertise in production, storage, and transportation required for future use and to improve efficiency and life cycle cost over legacy methods. Objectives were to consolidate KSC, CCAFS and other requirements; extract available industry expertise; identify commercial opportunities; and establish synergy with State of Florida partnerships. Study results are reviewed.

  2. Back to the future: past and future era-based schematic support and associative memory for prices in younger and older adults.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castel, Alan D; McGillivray, Shannon; Worden, Kendell M

    2013-12-01

    Older adults typically display various associative memory deficits, but these deficits can be reduced when conditions allow for the use of prior knowledge or schematic support. To determine how era-specific schematic support and future simulation might influence associative memory, we examined how younger and older adults remember prices from the past as well as the future. Younger and older adults were asked to imagine the past or future, and then studied items and prices from approximately 40 years ago (market value prices from the 1970s) or 40 years in the future. In Experiment 1, all items were common items (e.g., movie ticket, coffee) and the associated prices reflected the era in question, whereas in Experiment 2, some item-price pairs were specific to the time period (e.g., typewriter, robot maid), to test different degrees of schematic support. After studying the pairs, participants were shown each item and asked to recall the associated price. In both experiments, older adults showed similar performance as younger adults in the past condition for the common items, whereas age-related differences were greater in the future condition and for the era-specific items. The findings suggest that in order for schematic support to be effective, recent (and not simply remote) experience is needed in order to enhance memory. Thus, whereas older adults can benefit from "turning back the clock," younger adults better remember future-oriented information compared with older adults, outlining age-related similarities and differences in associative memory and the efficient use of past and future-based schematic support. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  3. A Preference-Free Formula to Value Commodity Derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rodriguez, J.C.

    2007-01-01

    This paper studies a new model of commodity prices in which the stochastic convenience yield is an affine function of past commodity returns. While preserving market completeness, the model exhibits price nonstationarity and mean reversion under the martingale measure, and, as a consequence, it is

  4. Domestic fuel price and economic sectors in Malaysia: a future of renewable energy?

    OpenAIRE

    Jee, Hui-Siang Brenda; Lau, Evan; Puah, Chin-Hong; Abu Mansor, Shazali

    2010-01-01

    This study empirically examines the relation between the domestic fuel prices with the ten disaggregated economic sectors in Malaysia with the spanning of data from 1990:Q1 to 2007:Q4. We found that only three sectors (agriculture, trade and other services sectors) are cointegrated with the fuel price and fuel price does Granger cause these sectors. Despite the evidence of non-cointegrated in most of the economic sectors, fuel price able to influence these sectors over a longer period. Policy...

  5. Implications of Climate Volatility for Agricultural Commodity Markets in the Presence of Biofuel Mandates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, M.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.; Hertel, T. W.; Beckman, J.

    2011-12-01

    In presence of bio-fuels, link between energy and agricultural commodity markets has become more complex. An increase in ethanol production to minimum 15bn gallons a year - Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) and current technically permissible maximum 10% blending limit - Blend Wall (BW); make the link even stronger. If oil prices in future do not rise significantly from their current levels, this minimum production requirement would likely be binding. In such a scenario any fluctuation in crop production will have to be absorbed by the non-ethanol usage of the crop and would translate into crop prices adjusting to clear the markets and therefore the commodity prices will be more volatile. At high oil prices it is possible that the BW may become binding, severing the link between oil prices and commodity prices as well, potentially leading to higher price volatility. Hertel and Beckman (2010) find that, with both RFS and BW simultaneously binding, corn price volatility due to supply side shocks (which could arise from extreme climate events) could be more than 50% as large as in the absence of bio-fuel policies. So energy markets are important determinants of agricultural commodity price volatility. This proposal intends to introduce the increased supply side volatility on account of climate change and volatility, in the framework. Global warming on account of increased GHG concentrations is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of hot extremes in US (Diffenbaugh et al. 2008) and therefore affect corn yields. With supply shocks expected to increase, binding RFS and BW will exacerbate the volatility, while if they are non-binding then the price changes could be cushioned. We propose to model the impacts of climate changes and volatility on commodity prices by linking three main components - a. Projections for change in temperature and precipitation using climate model b. A statistical model to predict impacts of change in climate variable on corn yields in US

  6. The price of oil and the future of Middle East Gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaki Yamani, A.

    1997-01-01

    Most LNG contracts relate the LNG price received by the supplier at the point of delivery to a relevant oil price. Gas and oil are thus closely connected so that when the price of landed oil decreases so dose the price of delivered LNG. With large fixed transportation and liquefaction costs, accounting for around 85% of the supply cost of delivered LNG in the case of Qatari LNG supplied to japan, you can imagine how large falls in the price paid for delivered LNG would squeeze the net back to the producer back in Qatar. However, low oil price can do some damage to the economics of existing LNG projects in the Middle East. More importantly, persistently low oil prices can prevent new LNG projects from leaving the drawing board-which will stifle the exciting export potential of Middle Eastern gas

  7. Back to the Future Betas: Empirical Asset Pricing of US and Southeast Asian Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordan French

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The study adds an empirical outlook on the predicting power of using data from the future to predict future returns. The crux of the traditional Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM methodology is using historical data in the calculation of the beta coefficient. This study instead uses a battery of Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH models, of differing lag and parameter terms, to forecast the variance of the market used in the denominator of the beta formula. The covariance of the portfolio and market returns are assumed to remain constant in the time-varying beta calculations. The data spans from 3 January 2005 to 29 December 2014. One ten-year, two five-year, and three three-year sample periods were used, for robustness, with ten different portfolios. Out of sample forecasts, mean absolute error (MAE and mean squared forecast error (MSE were used to compare the forecasting ability of the ex-ante GARCH models, Artificial Neural Network, and the standard market ex-post model. Find that the time-varying MGARCH and SGARCH beta performed better with out-of-sample testing than the other ex-ante models. Although the simplest approach, constant ex-post beta, performed as well or better within this empirical study.

  8. The relationship between crude oil spot and futures prices: Cointegration, linear and nonlinear causality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bekiros, Stelios D.; Diks, Cees G.H.

    2008-01-01

    The present study investigates the linear and nonlinear causal linkages between daily spot and futures prices for maturities of one, two, three and four months of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil. The data cover two periods October 1991-October 1999 and November 1999-October 2007, with the latter being significantly more turbulent. Apart from the conventional linear Granger test we apply a new nonparametric test for nonlinear causality by Diks and Panchenko after controlling for cointegration. In addition to the traditional pairwise analysis, we test for causality while correcting for the effects of the other variables. To check if any of the observed causality is strictly nonlinear in nature, we also examine the nonlinear causal relationships of VECM filtered residuals. Finally, we investigate the hypothesis of nonlinear non-causality after controlling for conditional heteroskedasticity in the data using a GARCH-BEKK model. Whilst the linear causal relationships disappear after VECM cointegration filtering, nonlinear causal linkages in some cases persist even after GARCH filtering in both periods. This indicates that spot and futures returns may exhibit asymmetric GARCH effects and/or statistically significant higher order conditional moments. Moreover, the results imply that if nonlinear effects are accounted for, neither market leads or lags the other consistently, videlicet the pattern of leads and lags changes over time. (author)

  9. Commonly Consumed Food Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Commonly consumed foods are those ingested for their nutrient properties. Food commodities can be either raw agricultural commodities or processed commodities, provided that they are the forms that are sold or distributed for human consumption. Learn more.

  10. 17 CFR 32.9 - Fraud in connection with commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Fraud in connection with commodity option transactions. 32.9 Section 32.9 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION REGULATION OF COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 32.9 Fraud in connection with commodity...

  11. What explains the difference between the futures' price and its "fair" value? : evidence from the european options exchange

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Berglund, T.; Kabir, R.

    1995-01-01

    This paper analyzes systematic deviations of the observed futures price from the value predicted by the simple cost-of-carry relationship. A model to explain this deviation (the basis) is presented in Chen, Cuny, and Haugen (1995, henceforth CCH). According to CCH, the basis should be negatively

  12. The Influence of Agricultural Commodity on F&B Company’s Performance in Indonesia

    OpenAIRE

    Rofikoh Rokhim; Puguh Setiawan

    2013-01-01

    This research examines the influence of agricultural commodity price movements on stock price and gross profit of food and beverage companies in Indonesia, as well as the effect of volatility prices of agricultural commodities. Using time series data of food and beverages (F&B) companies that are listed at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), this research calculating the event studies to find the abnormal returns. The results showed that the movement of agricultural commodity prices has a pos...

  13. The NYMEX electricity futures contract

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Palmer-Huggins, D.

    1998-01-01

    Members of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) include bankers, industry (such as refiners, producers, and electricity marketers) brokerage houses, and individuals. NYMEX is the largest physical commodity futures exchange in the world. The primary economic role of the commodity exchange industry was discussed, with special emphasis on open interest, volume, and liquidity. Hedge dynamics were also reviewed. A hedge was described as a financial instrument used to lock in prices, costs, and profit margins. Futures contracts in general, and electricity futures contracts in particular were defined ('a firm commitment to deliver or to receive a specified quantity or grade of commodity at a specific location within a designated month'). Results expected from hedging, - cost control, predictable margins, securing a certain market share, price stabilization - , the nature of options trading, and its benefits were also reviewed. 1 tab., 4 figs

  14. Modelling world gold prices and USD foreign exchange relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ping, Pung Yean; Ahmad, Maizah Hura Binti

    2014-12-01

    World gold price is a popular investment commodity. The series have often been modeled using univariate models. The objective of this paper is to show that there is a co-movement between gold price and USD foreign exchange rate. Using the effect of the USD foreign exchange rate on the gold price, a model that can be used to forecast future gold prices is developed. For this purpose, the current paper proposes a multivariate GARCH (Bivariate GARCH) model. Using daily prices of both series from 01.01.2000 to 05.05.2014, a causal relation between the two series understudied are found and a bivariate GARCH model is produced.

  15. Applications of GARCH models to energy commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Humphreys, H. Brett

    This thesis uses GARCH methods to examine different aspects of the energy markets. The first part of the thesis examines seasonality in the variance. This study modifies the standard univariate GARCH models to test for seasonal components in both the constant and the persistence in natural gas, heating oil and soybeans. These commodities exhibit seasonal price movements and, therefore, may exhibit seasonal variances. In addition, the heating oil model is tested for a structural change in variance during the Gulf War. The results indicate the presence of an annual seasonal component in the persistence for all commodities. Out-of-sample volatility forecasting for natural gas outperforms standard forecasts. The second part of this thesis uses a multivariate GARCH model to examine volatility spillovers within the crude oil forward curve and between the London and New York crude oil futures markets. Using these results the effect of spillovers on dynamic hedging is examined. In addition, this research examines cointegration within the oil markets using investable returns rather than fixed prices. The results indicate the presence of strong volatility spillovers between both markets, weak spillovers from the front of the forward curve to the rest of the curve, and cointegration between the long term oil price on the two markets. The spillover dynamic hedge models lead to a marginal benefit in terms of variance reduction, but a substantial decrease in the variability of the dynamic hedge; thereby decreasing the transactions costs associated with the hedge. The final portion of the thesis uses portfolio theory to demonstrate how the energy mix consumed in the United States could be chosen given a national goal to reduce the risks to the domestic macroeconomy of unanticipated energy price shocks. An efficient portfolio frontier of U.S. energy consumption is constructed using a covariance matrix estimated with GARCH models. The results indicate that while the electric

  16. Market risk in commodity markets. A VaR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giot, Pierre; Laurent, Sebastien

    2003-01-01

    We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners

  17. Market risk in commodity markets: a VaR approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Giot, P.

    2003-01-01

    We put forward Value-at-Risk models relevant for commodity traders who have long and short trading positions in commodity markets. In a 5-year out-of-sample study on aluminium, copper, nickel, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil daily cash prices and cocoa nearby futures contracts, we assess the performance of the RiskMetrics, skewed Student APARCH and skewed student ARCH models. While the skewed Student APARCH model performs best in all cases, the skewed Student ARCH model delivers good results and its estimation does not require non-linear optimization procedures. As such this new model could be relatively easily integrated in a spreadsheet-like environment and used by market practitioners. (author)

  18. Determinants and Sustainability of House Prices: The Case of Shanghai, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gao Lu Zou

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent housing policies include measures for home purchase control and shanty town redevelopment. This study proposes sustainable pricing, in that the long-run equilibrium price is determined by the fundamentals of house prices. We argue that changes in CPI might have led to rapidly growing house prices and rather high price levels. We investigate the long-run or short-run impacts of new commodity housing completions, transacted square meters of commodity housing, and CPI for house prices in Shanghai. We adopt monthly data for the period of 2005–2010. We test for unit roots using both the ADF and PP techniques and structural breaks using both the Zivot-Andrews (Model B and Perron (Model C methods. Considering Cheung-Lai and Reinsel–Ahn finite-sample corrections, the results suggest a long-run equilibrium. Housing completions negatively impact house prices in the short run. A positive volume-price relationship is suggested. Housing sales affect house prices in the short run but not vice versa. Hence, the empirical evidence supports the search model. In addition, CPI is strongly exogenous with respect to the long-run relationship and thus is a long-term determinant of house prices. CPI also positively and drastically influences house prices in the short run. Therefore, a reduction in inflation rate could stabilize house prices, increasing the chances of sustainable prices in the future.

  19. The Effect of Managerial Ability on Future Stock Price Crash Risk: Evidence from Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soo Yeon Park

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the effect of managerial ability on subsequent stock price crash risk using listed firm data in Korea. Compared to some financially advanced countries, the influence of managers is particularly more powerful in Korea, as ownership and management are not effectively separate in most Korean firms. In addition, we considered the effect of large business groups called Chaebol, which is family-run conglomerates with unique corporate governance system that hugely affect the Korean economy. It is important to recognize determinants of the stock price crash risk which would result in doubt on going concern to enhance the company’s sustainable management. Hence, this study focuses on the managerial ability as one of the main factors of the stock price crash risk. We use the measures of firm-specific stock price crash risk based on Hutton et al. (2009. Managerial ability is estimated through a Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA and tobit regressions following Demerjian et al. (2012. From the empirical tests, there is a negative association between managerial ability and stock price crash risk. This suggests that managers with a higher ability release more voluntary disclosure to signal their ability, ultimately lowering the subsequent stock price crash risk. We also find that firms in large business groups, Chaebol, weaken the negative association between managerial ability and subsequent stock price crash risk.

  20. Is there differential responsiveness to a future cigarette price increase depending on adolescents' source of cigarette access?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hwang, Jun Hyun; Park, Soon-Woo

    2017-06-01

    We examined whether the responsiveness to an increase in cigarettes price differed by adolescents' cigarette acquisition source. We analyzed data on 6134 youth smokers (grades 7-12) from a cross-sectional survey in Korea with national representativeness. The respondents were classified into one of the following according to their source of cigarette acquisition: commercial-source group, social-source group, and others. Multiple logistic regressions were performed to estimate the effects of an increase in cigarette price on the intention to quit smoking on the basis of the cigarette acquisition source. Of the 6134 youth smokers, 36.0% acquired cigarettes from social sources, compared to the 49.6% who purchased cigarettes directly from commercial sources. In response to a future cigarette price increase, regardless of an individual's smoking level, there was no statistically significant difference in the odds ratio for the intention to stop smoking in association with cigarette acquisition sources. The social-source group had nonsignificant, but consistently positive, odds ratios (1.07-1.30) as compared to that of the commercial-source group. Our findings indicate that the cigarette acquisition source does not affect the responsiveness to an increase in cigarette price. Therefore, a cigarette price policy is a comprehensive strategy to reduce smoking among youth smokers, regardless of their source.

  1. Development of Practical inventory analysis using an input-output table. Allocation problem by multi-prices of a commodity and procedure for combining process with input-output analyses; Sangyo renkanhyo wo mochiita jitsuyotekina inbentori bunseki shuho no kakuritsu. Ichizai taka ni yoru haibun mondai oyobi tsumiageho tono yugo hoho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hondo, H.; Uchiyama, Y. [Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan). Socio-economic Research Center

    1999-11-20

    This paper discusses two main problems to develop practical inventory analysis using an input-output (I-O) table. The first is the allocation problem caused by use of an actual I-O table, which indicates transaction among sectors on monetary unit. When direct and indirect emissions at the production of commodities are calculated using conventional I-O analysis method, the values are underestimated or overestimated due to the assumption that a commodity is sold at a uniform price to all consumers. In this paper, modified method is presented, reflecting the fact that a commodity is sold at different prices to each consumer. It is found that CO{sub 2} emission factors of commodities estimated using the modified method are different fro those using the conventional method. The second is the way to combine process analysis with I-O analysis for reasonable and practical inventory analysis. The merit of process analysis is precise estimation reflecting actual processes. On the other hand, I-O analysis theoretically enables consistent estimation taking account of all processes in society. This paper describes an inventory analysis method that makes the best use of merits of both. CO{sub 2} emission factor of a boiler is calculated using the method and the result proves the method to be available. (author)

  2. A dataset on tail risk of commodities markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Powell, Robert J; Vo, Duc H; Pham, Thach N; Singh, Abhay K

    2017-12-01

    This article contains the datasets related to the research article "The long and short of commodity tails and their relationship to Asian equity markets"(Powell et al., 2017) [1]. The datasets contain the daily prices (and price movements) of 24 different commodities decomposed from the S&P GSCI index and the daily prices (and price movements) of three share market indices including World, Asia, and South East Asia for the period 2004-2015. Then, the dataset is divided into annual periods, showing the worst 5% of price movements for each year. The datasets are convenient to examine the tail risk of different commodities as measured by Conditional Value at Risk (CVaR) as well as their changes over periods. The datasets can also be used to investigate the association between commodity markets and share markets.

  3. Will any future increase in cigarette price reduce smoking in Saudi Arabia?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar A. Al-Mohrej

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: In Saudi Arabia, no studies have been conducted on the correlation between any possible cigarette′s price increase and its effects on cigarette consumption. Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of cigarette smoking in Saudi Arabia and to predict the effect of price increase on cigarette consumption. Settings and Design: A cross-sectional study was conducted in April and May 2013. Methods: We developed an Arabic questionnaire with information on demographic and socioeconomic factors, smoking history, and personal opinion on the effect of price increase on cigarette consumption. The questionnaire was distributed in public places such as malls and posted on famous Saudi athlete media′s twitter accounts. Results: Among the 2057 included responses, 802 (39% were current smokers. The smokers′ population constituted of 746 (92% males, of which 546 (68% had a monthly income equal or greater to 800 US dollars, and 446 (55% were aged between 21 and 30 years. Multivariate analyses of the risk factors for smoking showed that male gender and older age were associated with greater risk. Despite the current low prices of 2.67 US dollars, 454 smokers (56% thought that cigarette prices are expensive. When asked about the price of cigarettes that will lead to smoking cessation, 443 smokers (55% expected that a price of 8.27 US dollars and more per pack will make them quit. Conclusions: Increasing the price of popular cigarettes pack from 2.67 US dollars to 8.27 US dollars is expected to lead to smoking cessation in a large number of smokers in the Saudi population.

  4. FUTURE FOSSIL FUEL PRICE IMPACTS ON NDC ACHIEVEMENT; ESTIMATION OF GHG EMISSIONS AND MITIGATION COSTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yosuke Arino

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The Shale Revolution in the US, a supply-side innovation in oil and gas production, has been dramatically changing the world’s fossil fuel energy markets – leading to a decrease in oil, gas and coal prices. Some projections suggest that low fossil fuel prices might continue at least over the next few decades. Uncertainty in fossil fuel prices might affect the levels of emission reductions expected from submitted nationally determined contributions (NDCs and/or influence the difficulty of achieving the NDCs. This paper evaluated the impact of different (high, medium, and low fossil fuel prices, sustained through to 2050, on worldwide GHG emissions reductions and associated costs (mainly marginal abatement costs (MACs. Total global GHG emissions were estimated to be 57.5-61.5 GtCO2eq by 2030, with the range shown reflecting uncertainties about fossil fuel prices and the target levels of several NDCs (i.e., whether their upper or lower targets were adopted. It was found that lower fuel prices not only diminished the environmental effectiveness of global NDCs but also widened regional differences of marginal and total abatement costs, thereby generating more room for carbon leakage. One possible policy direction in terms of abatement efficiency, fairness and environmental effectiveness would be to require countries with low marginal and total abatement costs but having a major influence on global GHG emissions (such as China and India to increase their mitigation efforts, especially in a low-fuelprice world.

  5. The Share Price and Investment: Current Footprints for Future Oil and Gas Industry Performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ionel Jianu

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available The share price has become a very important indicator for shareholders, banks, and financial institutions evaluating the performance of companies. The oil and gas industry seems to be in a difficult era of development, due to the market prices for its products. Moreover, climate change and renewable energies are barriers for fossil energy. This state of affairs, and the fact that oil and gas shares are considered one of the most solid and reliable shares on the London Stock Exchange (LSE, have drawn our attention. International institutions encourage the investment in the oil and gas economic sector. This study investigates how investments of oil and gas companies in long-term assets influence the share price. Using the Ohlson share price model for a sample of 51 listed companies on the LSE proves that investments in long-term assets influence the share price in the case of companies which record losses. Investments in long-term assets are responsible for the attractiveness of the oil and gas company shares.

  6. A New Pricing Scheme for Controlling Energy Storage Devices in Future Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingwei Zhu

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Improvement of the overall efficiency of energy infrastructure is one of the main anticipated benefits of the deployment of smart grid technology. Advancement in energy storage technology and two-way communication in the electric network are indispensable components to achieve such a vision, while efficient pricing schemes and appropriate storage management are also essential. In this paper, we propose a universal pricing scheme which permits one to indirectly control the energy storage devices in the grid to achieve a more desirable aggregate demand profile that meets a particular target of the grid operator such as energy generation cost minimization and carbon emission reduction. Such a pricing scheme can potentially be applied to control the behavior of energy storage devices installed for integration of intermittent renewable energy sources that have permission to grid connection and will have broader applications as an increasing number of novel and low-cost energy storage technologies emerge.

  7. Cost Estimation and Efficiency Analysis of Korean CANDU Spent Fuel Disposal Alternatives in Consideration of Future Price Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sungsig Bang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In Korea, spent fuel is temporarily stored in spent fuel pools at nuclear reactor sites and it is predicted to become saturated between 2020 and 2024. For this reason, four disposal alternatives (KRS-1, A-KRS-1, A-KRS-21, and A-KRS-22 have been developed in order to carry out the direct disposal of the CANDU spent fuel. The objective of this study is to conduct cost efficiency analysis of the disposal alternatives in consideration of price volatility for the radioactive waste repository. To derive future price volatility, this study used the ARIMA model. As a result, A-KRS-1 is the most efficient in terms of price per bundle using 2015 price. As for the results using ARIMA model, except in the case of KRS-1, the cost per bundle of A-KRS-1, A-KRS-21, and A-KRS-22 is decreased. Cost estimation using ARIMA model shows little change or decreases in cost while cost estimation using inflation rates for 2020 resulted in approximately 7.2% increases compared to 2015 for all options. As for the results of scenario analysis, A-KRS-1 earned 8,160 points, while A-KRS-22 followed closely behind with 7,980 points among the total 24,300 points. The results of this study provide invaluable policy data for any nation considering the construction of spent nuclear fuel repository.

  8. PRICING ON OPTIONS ON ONE-DAY INTERBANK DEPOSIT FUTURE CONTRACT

    OpenAIRE

    LUCIANO MOLTER DE PINHO GROSSO

    2006-01-01

    Este trabalho tem como objetivo apresentar uma alternativa para se analisar e avaliar opções sobre DI Futuro. Para tanto, faremos uso da teoria clássica sobre derivativos, e em particular, do modelo sugerido por Black [2] para a avaliação de opções sobre futuros de commodities. O contrato em questão, não possui solução analítica devido ao comportamento não linear do seu pay- off. A teoria define que a equação diferencial que descreve o comportamento do pr...

  9. The Rising Price of Objectivity: Philanthropy, Government, and the Future of Education Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feuer, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    In "The Rising Price of Objectivity," Michael J. Feuer describes what he sees as a "perfect storm" gathering in the sea of education research. He notes the convergence of three important trends: first, the rise in strategic education philanthropy; second, the decline in federal funding, in part due to ideologically contested…

  10. Volatility Spillovers for Spot, Futures, and ETF Prices in Energy and Agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); C-P. Liu (Chia-Ping); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractThe agricultural and energy industries are closely related, both biologically and financially. The paper discusses the relationship and the interactions on price and volatility, with special focus on the covolatility spillover effects for these two industries. The interaction and

  11. Peering into Alberta’s Darkening Future: How Oil Prices Impact Alberta’s Royalty Revenues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sarah Dobson

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The price of oil just keeps collapsing — and the fate of Alberta’s revenues is buckling with it. Going into March 2015, it seemed as if prices might have finally found a bottom, somewhere between US$48 and US$52. By the second week of March, they began falling again, to the low forties. These are prices the Alberta government had not even ventured to fathom when first putting together its forecasts for the impact of falling oil prices on the province’s finances. Come the fourth quarter of the Alberta government’s 2014/15 fiscal year, the province’s finances will begin to really feel the blow from the plunge in oil, as royalty payments dry up significantly. Come the 2015/16 fiscal year, the situation becomes even bleaker. In fact, the current fiscal year will seem pleasant compared to the next one. Due to a stronger than expected first half of the year, actual bitumen and crude oil royalties collected in Alberta from April to September 2014 exceeded estimates by $1.3 billion. That will mitigate some of the damage that the continuing slide in prices will cause by the year’s end, with the government’s third quarter update showing expected year-end crude oil and bitumen royalty revenues falling short of the budget target by $549 million. So severe has the fall in oil prices been that, in March 2015, the number of barrels of conventional oil that the government collects in royalties could plummet by up to 53,000 barrels from the 2014/15 budget forecast, declining to just 4,100 barrels per day. This suggests that prices may be nearing a point where royalty collection from conventional crude oil production is at risk of being virtually eliminated. Bitumen royalties are not faring much better. Relative to July 2014, per barrel royalties in February 2015 have potentially declined by 60 to 90 per cent. All told, the combined effect of the changing exchange rate, lower prices, and the lower royalty rates that take effect in this low-price

  12. 17 CFR 33.10 - Fraud in connection with commodity option transactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Fraud in connection with commodity option transactions. 33.10 Section 33.10 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION REGULATION OF DOMESTIC EXCHANGE-TRADED COMMODITY OPTION TRANSACTIONS § 33.10 Fraud in...

  13. 17 CFR 190.05 - Making and taking delivery on commodity contracts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Making and taking delivery on commodity contracts. 190.05 Section 190.05 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION BANKRUPTCY § 190.05 Making and taking delivery on commodity contracts. (a) General. (1) In the...

  14. 17 CFR 37.4 - Election to trade excluded and exempt commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Election to trade excluded and exempt commodities. 37.4 Section 37.4 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING... commodities. A board of trade that is or elects to become a registered derivatives transaction execution...

  15. Making the Most of Commodities Program (sub-Saharan Africa ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Making the Most of Commodities Program (sub-Saharan Africa) ... Sub-Saharan Africa needs to develop a strategic response to the boom in commodities prices, which has already been more long-lived and less volatile than ... The Science Granting Councils Initiative in sub-Saharan Africa wins Science Diplomacy Award.

  16. Natural gas pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freedenthal, C.

    1993-01-01

    Natural gas pricing is the heart and soul of the gas business. Price specifically affects every phase of the industry. Too low a price will result in short supplies as seen in the mid-1970s when natural gas was scarce and in tight supply. To fully understand the pricing of this energy commodity, it is important to understand the total energy picture. In addition, the effect and impact of world and US economies, and economics in general are crucial to understanding natural gas pricing. The purpose of this presentation will be to show the parameters going into US natural gas pricing including the influence of the many outside industry factors like crude oil and coal pricing, market drivers pushing the gas industry, supply/demand parameters, risk management for buyers and sellers, and other elements involved in pricing analysis

  17. Multiple commodities in statistical microeconomics: Model and market

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baaquie, Belal E.; Yu, Miao; Du, Xin

    2016-11-01

    A statistical generalization of microeconomics has been made in Baaquie (2013). In Baaquie et al. (2015), the market behavior of single commodities was analyzed and it was shown that market data provides strong support for the statistical microeconomic description of commodity prices. The case of multiple commodities is studied and a parsimonious generalization of the single commodity model is made for the multiple commodities case. Market data shows that the generalization can accurately model the simultaneous correlation functions of up to four commodities. To accurately model five or more commodities, further terms have to be included in the model. This study shows that the statistical microeconomics approach is a comprehensive and complete formulation of microeconomics, and which is independent to the mainstream formulation of microeconomics.

  18. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2002-08-08

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs.

  19. LDC commodity risk analysis and recommendations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    Under the current operation of the new competitive electricity market in Ontario, local distribution companies (LDCs) are required to pay the monthly invoice of the Independent Market Operator (IMO) before they collect from end-users for the consumption period covered by the invoice, with no clear guarantee that the recovery will occur. This situation creates a major cash flow problem and financial risk for LDCs and threatens the integrity and stability of the electricity market. This paper described 3 features of Ontario's competitive electricity market that create financial and commodity risk. The first problem is that there is no limit on how high prices can rise. Increases in wholesale commodity prices can result in a situation where the amount of the IMO's invoice is greater than the LDC's ability to pay at the time of receipt. Secondly, the LDC bears a 100 per cent payment obligation to the IMO administrator of the wholesale market. The third problem is that LDCs bear payment default risk from all consumers in the Ontario market, including electricity retailers. This paper presents some specific policy solutions that can protect the market from this threat. It was suggested that in order to protect the integrity of Ontario's electricity market during high prices, a policy must be drafted to address the commodity price financing risk (CPFR) issue. The policy must also define what happens if prices increase past the LDCs financing obligation limit. tabs., figs

  20. Development of an evolutionary fuzzy expert system for estimating future behavior of stock price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehmanpazir, Farhad; Asadi, Shahrokh

    2017-03-01

    The stock market has always been an attractive area for researchers since no method has been found yet to predict the stock price behavior precisely. Due to its high rate of uncertainty and volatility, it carries a higher risk than any other investment area, thus the stock price behavior is difficult to simulation. This paper presents a "data mining-based evolutionary fuzzy expert system" (DEFES) approach to estimate the behavior of stock price. This tool is developed in seven-stage architecture. Data mining is used in three stages to reduce the complexity of the whole data space. The first stage, noise filtering, is used to make our raw data clean and smooth. Variable selection is second stage; we use stepwise regression analysis to choose the key variables been considered in the model. In the third stage, K-means is used to divide the data into sub-populations to decrease the effects of noise and rebate complexity of the patterns. At next stage, extraction of Mamdani type fuzzy rule-based system will be carried out for each cluster by means of genetic algorithm and evolutionary strategy. In the fifth stage, we use binary genetic algorithm to rule filtering to remove the redundant rules in order to solve over learning phenomenon. In the sixth stage, we utilize the genetic tuning process to slightly adjust the shape of the membership functions. Last stage is the testing performance of tool and adjusts parameters. This is the first study on using an approximate fuzzy rule base system and evolutionary strategy with the ability of extracting the whole knowledge base of fuzzy expert system for stock price forecasting problems. The superiority and applicability of DEFES are shown for International Business Machines Corporation and compared the outcome with the results of the other methods. Results with MAPE metric and Wilcoxon signed ranks test indicate that DEFES provides more accuracy and outperforms all previous methods, so it can be considered as a superior tool for

  1. Supply Chain Shipment Pricing Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — This data set provides supply chain health commodity shipment and pricing data. Specifically, the data set identifies Antiretroviral (ARV) and HIV lab shipments to...

  2. The Influence of Agricultural Commodity on F&B Company’s Performance in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rofikoh Rokhim

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the influence of agricultural commodity price movements on stock price and gross profit of food and beverage companies in Indonesia, as well as the effect of volatility prices of agricultural commodities. Using time series data of food and beverages (F&B companies that are listed at the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX, this research calculating the event studies to find the abnormal returns. The results showed that the movement of agricultural commodity prices has a positive effect on stock prices of F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and sugar. Agricultural commodity prices also affect positively on gross profit F&B companies, with the dominant influence of commodity prices of corn and palm oil. The increase in prices of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of a positive cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies. The results also showed that the decline of agricultural commodities simultaneously affect the value of negative cumulative abnormal return for stocks of F&B companies.

  3. 17 CFR 242.201 - Price test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Price test. 242.201 Section...-Regulation of Short Sales § 242.201 Price test. Link to an amendment published at 75 FR 11323, Mar. 10, 2010. (a) No short sale price test, including any short sale price test of any self-regulatory organization...

  4. Recent Global Food Price Shocks: Causes, Consequences and Lessons for African Governments and Donors-super- †

    OpenAIRE

    Philip Abbott; Adeline Borot de Battisti

    2011-01-01

    Dramatic increases in international agricultural commodity prices began in 2006 and peaked in July 2008. An equally remarkable and rapid decline of those prices then ensued, accompanied by extreme volatility in those prices. The trend in food prices lagged the rapid increases in other commodity prices, including oil and metals, but accompanied those other prices in the downward part of the cycle. Not all agricultural commodities increased to the same extent—grains and oilseed prices increased...

  5. Explaining crude oil prices using fundamental measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Coleman, Les

    2012-01-01

    Oil is the world's most important commodity, and improving the understanding of drivers of its price is a longstanding research objective. This article analyses real oil prices during 1984–2007 using a monthly dataset of fundamental and market parameters that cover financial markets, global economic growth, demand and supply of oil, and geopolitical measures. The innovation is to incorporate proxies for speculative and terrorist activity and dummies for major industry events, and quantify price impacts of each. New findings are positive links between oil prices and speculative activity, bond yields, an interaction term incorporating OPEC market share and OECD import dependence, and the number of US troops and frequency of terrorist attacks in the Middle East. Shocks also prove significant with a $6–18 per barrel impact on price for several months. - Highlights: ► Article introduces new variables to the study of oil prices. ► New variables are terrorist incidents and military activity, and oil futures market size. ► Shocks prove important affecting prices by $6–18 per barrel for several months. ► OPEC market influence rises with OECD import dependence.

  6. COMMODITY MARKET REGULATION: EXPORTING COUNTRIES VERSUS IMPORTING COUNTRIES

    OpenAIRE

    Souza, Leonardo Silveira

    2012-01-01

    The high in commodity prices in the international market in the last decade, tensions escalated between exporting and importing commodities countries, the extent of having their demands and pressures discussed in the main international organizations, especially in the G20. As altas nas cotações das commodities no mercado internacional na última década acirraram as tensões entre países exportadores e importadores de commodities, a ponto de terem suas reivindicações e pressões debatidas no...

  7. PRICE AND PRICING STRATEGIES

    OpenAIRE

    SUCIU Titus

    2013-01-01

    In individual companies, price is one significant factor in achieving marketing success. In many purchase situations, price can be of great importance to customers. Marketers must establish pricing strategies that are compatible with the rest of the marketing mix. Management should decide whether to charge the same price to all similar buyers of identical quantities of a product (a one-price strategy) or to set different prices (a flexible price strategy). Many organizations, especially retai...

  8. Value-informed pricing in its organizational context: literature review, conceptual framework, and directions for future research

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ingenbleek, P.T.M.

    2007-01-01

    Purpose ¿ In the face of increased pricing pressure, managerial attention for value-informed pricing (in which a price is based on the customer¿s value perception) is on the rise. Although value-informed pricing in its organizational context received a great deal of attention, the body of literature

  9. Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, Derek; Chevallier, Julien; Le Pen, Yannick; Sevi, Benoit

    2013-01-01

    As both speculative and hedging financial flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity price formation more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether these processes also create increased correlation amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas futures, using the large approximate factor models methodology we investigate whether common factors derived from a large international dataset of real and nominal macro variables are able to explain both returns and whether, beyond these fundamental common factors, the residuals remain correlated. We further investigate a possible explanation for this residual correlation by using some proxies for hedging and speculative activity, showing that speculation increases and hedging reduces the inter-commodity correlations. (authors)

  10. Crude oil prices: Speculation versus fundamentals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolodziej, Marek Krzysztof

    Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive

  11. Le futur prix de l'énergie : faut-il orienter les prix du pétrole vers la hausse? The Future Price of Energy. Should Oil Prices Be Allowed to Driff Upwards?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Desprairies P.

    2006-11-01

    Full Text Available II est à peu près universellement admis que les prix du pétrole vont augmenter d'ici la fin du siècle, du fait de l'épuisement des ressources de pétrole conventionnel à bon marché. L'évolution souhaitable des prix et leur niveau futur font par contre l'objet d'opinions variées. L'analyse du problème ne fait pas apparaître de raisons d'une hausse immédiate des prix au pétrole brut, ni de leur alignement à échéance rapide sur le prix des pétroles non-conventionnels les plus chers. Dans les prochaines années c'est l'offre et la demande de pétrole conventionnel qui commanderont les prix du pétrole, c'est-à-dire, le rythme d'investissements dans le pétrole conventionnel, le charbon, et l'électricité nucléaire. La hausse en prix constants peut difficilement reprendre avant qu'aient disparu les surplus de capacité de production, c'est-à-dire guère avant 1983/1985 si la croissance économique et l'offre de pétrole continuent d'évoluer aux allures actuellement prévisibles. Si l'on est tenté d'évaluer aux alentours du prix de vente actuel majoré de 50 %, soit une vingtaine de dollars (1978 le prix à long terme du pétrole, c'est beaucoup plus par référence aux souhaits supposés des pays producteurs et au pouvoir d'achat des pays acheteurs qu'au coct de production du pétrole non-conventionnel. Il est aujourd'hui peu probable que le dialogue entre pays exportateurs et acheteurs de pétrole, point de départ d'une hausse programmée des prix, se noue avant qu'une crise d'approvisionnements plus ou moins sévère n'ait rendu manifeste la nécessité d'un tel dialogue. It is almost universolly accepted that oil prices will rise between now and the end of the century on account of the depletion of cheop conventional oil resources. The evolution to be desired for prices and their future level, on the other hand, is the subiect of differing opinions. An onalysis of the problem does not reveal any raasons for an immediate

  12. Predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to future price increases. Findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, Hana; Blecher, Evan; Yan, Lili; Cummings, K Michael

    2011-06-01

    Given the impact of higher tobacco prices on smoking cessation, we studied the role of future cigarette prices on forming expectation about smoking behavior. Using a random sample of 9,058 adult cigarette smokers from the United States, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom collected in 2002, we examined predictors of what smokers say they will do in response to a hypothetical 50% increase in the price they paid for their last cigarette purchase. A series of regression analyses examined factors associated with intentions that have a positive impact on health, that is, intentions to quit and/or to consume fewer cigarettes. The quit and/or smoke less intentions were more pronounced among those who lived in areas with higher average cigarette prices and who paid higher prices for their brand of choice during the last purchase. The magnitude of the price increase is a more important predictor of an intention to quit/smoke less compared with the average cigarette price. The availability of alternative (cheaper) cigarette sources may reduce but would not eliminate the impact of higher prices/taxes on smokers' expected behavior that has been linked to actual quit intentions and quitting in follow-up surveys.

  13. The Principles and the Specifics of Trading in Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baran, Dušan; Herbacsková, Anita

    2012-12-01

    In the present period of instability on financial markets, investments in commodities are the solution for elimination of the consequences of inflation and ensure the yield. When investing in commodities, the use of specifics of commodities compared to other assets. The distribution of commodities we can interpret for agricultural commodities, commodities of energy, precious and other metals, and weather. Therefore, in the framework of the investment portfolio are the commodities. This is the reason why one of the most popular types of investment assets now become commodities. In the interpretation of particular commodities we talk about commodity futures. The reason is that the spot market with commodities is limited storage facilities. The growth of the popularity, which allows a wide range of commodities, has caused that in addition to from institutional investors and speculators for trade may involve even small investors. This development will be supplemented by interpretation of the charts and figers, which will be commented and used for generalization of knowledge. Finally, the article will be interpreted by the further development of the market for commodities as it by article assumes from the results of research.

  14. Dynamic analysis of policy drivers for bioenergy commodity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jeffers, Robert F.; Jacobson, Jacob J.; Searcy, Erin M.

    2013-01-01

    Biomass is increasingly being considered as a feedstock to provide a clean and renewable source of energy in the form of both liquid fuels and electric power. In the United States, the biofuels and biopower industries are regulated by different policies and have different drivers, which impact the maximum price the industries are willing to pay for biomass. This article describes a dynamic computer simulation model that analyzes future behavior of bioenergy feedstock markets given policy and technical options. The model simulates the long-term dynamics of these markets by treating advanced biomass feedstocks as a commodity and projecting the total demand of each industry, as well as the market price over time. The model is used for an analysis of the United States bioenergy feedstock market that projects supply, demand, and market price given three independent buyers: domestic biopower, domestic biofuels, and foreign exports. With base-case assumptions, the biofuels industry is able to dominate the market and meet the federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) targets for advanced biofuels. Further analyses suggest that United States bioenergy studies should include estimates of export demand in their projections, and that GHG-limiting policy would partially shield both industries from export dominance. - Highlights: ► We model a United States bioenergy feedstock commodity market. ► Three buyers compete for biomass: biopower, biofuels, and foreign exports. ► The presented methodology improves on dynamic economic equilibrium theory. ► With current policy incentives and ignoring exports, biofuels dominates the market. ► Overseas biomass demand could dominate unless a CO 2 -limiting policy is enacted.

  15. Forecasting the term structure of crude oil futures prices with neural networks

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Baruník, Jozef; Malinská, B.

    2016-01-01

    Roč. 164, č. 1 (2016), s. 366-379 ISSN 0306-2619 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GBP402/12/G097 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Term structure * Nelson–Siegel model * Dynamic neural networks * Crude oil futures Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 7.182, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/E/barunik-0453168.pdf

  16. Mineral commodity summaries 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2015-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2015 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2014 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses.

  17. Commodity profiles for selected metals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svoboda, O.; Wilson, B.M.

    1985-01-01

    This report describes the basic characteristics of 35 metals and gives the prices and production of these metals for the period 1979 to 1983/4. The description of each metal includes the ore grades and reserves, the major minerals in which the metal occurs, and the discovery, selected physical properties, sources, uses, substitutes, and effects on the environment of the metal. Graphs showing price and production cover the period 1950 to 1984, and possible future developments in these areas are forecast for each metal until the year 2000

  18. DESIGNING GREEN SUPPORT: INCENTIVE COMPATIBILITY AND THE COMMODITY PROGRAMS

    OpenAIRE

    Runge, C. Ford

    1994-01-01

    The purpose of this brief analysis is to consider the potential points of contact between a program of "green support" and the existing commodity programs in U.S. agriculture. These points of contact may take the form of conflict, complementarity, or neutrality. We shall assume initially that green support is "added" to the programs as they exist in 1994. Five main commodity program areas are considered: A. Deficiency payments resulting from the loan rate/target price structure B. Acreage red...

  19. Inventories and upstream gasoline price dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuper, Gerard H.

    This paper sheds new light on the asymmetric dynamics in upstream U.S. gasoline prices. The model is based on Pindyck's inventory model of commodity price dynamics. We show that asymmetry in gasoline price dynamics is caused by changes in the net marginal convenience yield: higher costs of marketing

  20. AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF VARIETY PRICE PREMIUM ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Location price difference was inversely related to distance from the central commodity market, and the seasonal price difference was attributed to storage technique. These show imperfect competitive market behaviour. Peu/drum with characteristics of brown colour, rough skin and large grain size had a price premium than ...

  1. UNCTAD commodity yearbook 1990

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1990-01-01

    The Commodity Yearbook is intended to provide disaggregated data at the world, regional and country levels for trade and consumption in selected agricultural primary commodities and minerals, ores and metals. Production series have been included for the latter group of commodities, since comprehensive diaggregated data are unavailable elsewhere. Basic tables have been designed, from both the commodity and the country point of view, to serve as background material to international commodity discussions and negotiations in the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The classification of countries and territories by region has been adopted for statistical convenience only, and follows that employed by the Statistical Office of the United Nations. Four main regions are defined: Developed market economy countries, Countries of Eastern Europe, Socialist countries of Asia and Developing countries and territories. For developed and developing countries and territories, the main regions have been further subdivided (e.g., EEC, EFTA, Africa, etc.) to provide additional information. The exact composition of each region is shown in section V of the general notes

  2. Electricity pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wijayatunga, P.D.C.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity pricing in most countries, especially in the developing world, has been determined by traditional accounting criteria where it raises revenue requirements to cover the operating costs and a return on past and future capital investments in possible power systems. The use of economic principles to improve the total economic efficiency in the electricity industry is discussed. Basic marginal cost theory, long run marginal costing (LRMC) cost categories and rating periods, marginal capacity costs, marginal energy costs, consumer costs, short run marginal costing (SRMC), marginal cost of fuel, marginal cost of network losses, market clearing price, value of unserved energy and network quality of supply cost are discussed

  3. Delay discounting of different commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weatherly, Jeffrey N; Terrell, Heather K; Derenne, Adam

    2010-01-01

    When outcomes are delayed, their value is decreased. Delay discounting is a much-studied topic because it is correlated with certain disorders (e.g., pathological gambling). The present study attempts to determine how people would delay discount a number of different commodities, ranging from money to dating partners to federal education legislation. Participants completed delay discounting tasks pertaining to 5 different commodities, with a different set of 5 commodities for 2 groups. Results showed that different commodities were often discounted differently. Both data sets were also subjected to factor analysis. A 2-factor solution was found for both, suggesting that there are multiple "domains" of commodities. This finding is of interest because it suggests that measuring delay discounting for one commodity within a particular domain of commodities will be predictive of how people discount other commodities within that domain but will not be predictive of how they discount commodities within another domain.

  4. Poverty, Policy and Price Transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elleby, Christian

    This thesis consists of four self-contained chapters in which different aspects of the relationship between international commodity markets and domestic food markets are explored. What motivates the analysis is the recent surge in international commodity prices and the controversy over the poverty...... of the real food price process based on which dynamic forecasts and historical decompositions are calculated. Results indicate that, despite the low degree of pass-through from international to domestic rice prices, food prices in general grew as fast as expected or faster, given the surge...... impact of the 2007-8 ‘food crisis’, in particular. The first paper analyses, in a stylized economic model, how the response of domestic aggregate food prices to an international shock depends on features of the country’s income distribution. The model is based on a dichotomy between traded and purely...

  5. Primer on electricity futures and other derivatives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoft, S.; Belden, T.; Goldman, C.; Pickle, S.

    1998-01-01

    Increased competition in bulk power and retail electricity markets is likely to lower electricity prices, but will also result in greater price volatility as the industry moves away from administratively determined, cost-based rates and encourages market-driven prices. Price volatility introduces new risks for generators, consumers, and marketers. Electricity futures and other derivatives can help each of these market participants manage, or hedge, price risks in a competitive electricity market. Futures contracts are legally binding and negotiable contracts that call for the future delivery of a commodity. In most cases, physical delivery does not take place, and the futures contract is closed by buying or selling a futures contract on or near the delivery date. Other electric rate derivatives include options, price swaps, basis swaps, and forward contracts. This report is intended as a primer for public utility commissioners and their staff on futures and other financial instruments used to manage price risks. The report also explores some of the difficult choices facing regulators as they attempt to develop policies in this area.

  6. Primer on electricity futures and other derivatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stoft, S.; Belden, T.; Goldman, C.; Pickle, S.

    1998-01-01

    Increased competition in bulk power and retail electricity markets is likely to lower electricity prices, but will also result in greater price volatility as the industry moves away from administratively determined, cost-based rates and encourages market-driven prices. Price volatility introduces new risks for generators, consumers, and marketers. Electricity futures and other derivatives can help each of these market participants manage, or hedge, price risks in a competitive electricity market. Futures contracts are legally binding and negotiable contracts that call for the future delivery of a commodity. In most cases, physical delivery does not take place, and the futures contract is closed by buying or selling a futures contract on or near the delivery date. Other electric rate derivatives include options, price swaps, basis swaps, and forward contracts. This report is intended as a primer for public utility commissioners and their staff on futures and other financial instruments used to manage price risks. The report also explores some of the difficult choices facing regulators as they attempt to develop policies in this area

  7. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2011-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2011 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2010 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Mineral Commodity Summaries 2011 contains new chapters on iron oxide pigments, wollastonite, and zeolites. The chapters on mica (natural), scrap and flake and mica (natural), sheet have been combined into a single chapter - mica (natural). Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. "Appendix C - Reserves and Resources" has been divided into "Part A - Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals" and "Part B - Sources of Reserves Data," including some information that was previously in this introduction. A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2011 are welcomed.

  8. Indian agricultural commodity derivatives market – In conversation with S Sivakumar, Divisional Chief Executive, Agri Business Division, ITC Ltd.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prabina Rajib

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Though the agricultural sector contributes significantly to the Indian economy, it faces several bottlenecks, one of those being the antiquated laws governing agricultural marketing and price discovery, leading to low price realization by Indian farmers. In India, six national level exchanges offer commodity derivatives contracts on commodities, with some having electronic spot exchanges to facilitate spot trading of commodities. However, farmers' participation in these exchanges has been poor. ITC-ABD, one of the largest aggregators and exporters of Indian agri-commodities, has started using these exchange platforms to hedge price risk. With experience of over three decades in the agricultural sector, Mr. S. Sivakumar has a deep understanding of the commodity markets and the needs of Indian farmers. This interview aims to get an insight into his views on increasing farmers' participation in commodity derivatives trading and more importantly, to understand ITC-ABD's commodity hedging strategy.

  9. Commodities Trading: An Essential Economic Tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Mary A., Ed.

    1989-01-01

    This issue focuses on commodities trading as an essential economic tool. Activities include critical thinking about marketing decisions and discussion on how futures markets and options are used as important economic tools. Discussion questions and a special student project are included. (EH)

  10. Fundamentals of futures, options, basis and derivatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, D.

    1997-01-01

    Characteristic features of futures and options contracts, basis differentials and derivatives were defined and explained. A futures contract refers to an exchange-traded supply contract between a buyer and a seller where the buyer is obligated to take delivery and the seller is obligated to provide delivery of a fixed amount of a commodity at a predetermined price at a specified location. In contrast, an option contract gives the purchaser the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the underlying commodity at a certain price on or before an agreed date. Basis differential refers to the discount between two distinct delivery points to reflect the relative value of a commodity, such as natural gas, at those points. Advantages and disadvantages of futures and options contacts, the factors affecting options pricing, and basis differentials, and the methods of calculating basis differentials were described. The nature and intricacies of derivatives, their benefits, in particular their use as a tool for the effective management of the volatilities associated with the oil and gas industry were explained. Their shortcomings such as the high liquidity risk, were also described. Examples of derivative transactions were provided to illustrate the interrelationships of futures/options/derivatives, and their role in financial risk management

  11. Voluntary medical male circumcision: logistics, commodities, and waste management requirements for scale-up of services.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dianna Edgil

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. CONCLUSIONS: Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in

  12. Voluntary medical male circumcision: logistics, commodities, and waste management requirements for scale-up of services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edgil, Dianna; Stankard, Petra; Forsythe, Steven; Rech, Dino; Chrouser, Kristin; Adamu, Tigistu; Sakallah, Sameer; Thomas, Anne Goldzier; Albertini, Jennifer; Stanton, David; Dickson, Kim Eva; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2011-11-01

    The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in "Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Modeling the Impact and Cost of

  13. Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision: Logistics, Commodities, and Waste Management Requirements for Scale-Up of Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edgil, Dianna; Stankard, Petra; Forsythe, Steven; Rech, Dino; Chrouser, Kristin; Adamu, Tigistu; Sakallah, Sameer; Thomas, Anne Goldzier; Albertini, Jennifer; Stanton, David; Dickson, Kim Eva; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2011-01-01

    Background The global HIV prevention community is implementing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs across eastern and southern Africa, with a goal of reaching 80% coverage in adult males by 2015. Successful implementation will depend on the accessibility of commodities essential for VMMC programming and the appropriate allocation of resources to support the VMMC supply chain. For this, the United States President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, in collaboration with the World Health Organization and the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS, has developed a standard list of commodities for VMMC programs. Methods and Findings This list of commodities was used to inform program planning for a 1-y program to circumcise 152,000 adult men in Swaziland. During this process, additional key commodities were identified, expanding the standard list to include commodities for waste management, HIV counseling and testing, and the treatment of sexually transmitted infections. The approximate costs for the procurement of commodities, management of a supply chain, and waste disposal, were determined for the VMMC program in Swaziland using current market prices of goods and services. Previous costing studies of VMMC programs did not capture supply chain costs, nor the full range of commodities needed for VMMC program implementation or waste management. Our calculations indicate that depending upon the volume of services provided, supply chain and waste management, including commodities and associated labor, contribute between US$58.92 and US$73.57 to the cost of performing one adult male circumcision in Swaziland. Conclusions Experience with the VMMC program in Swaziland indicates that supply chain and waste management add approximately US$60 per circumcision, nearly doubling the total per procedure cost estimated previously; these additional costs are used to inform the estimate of per procedure costs modeled by Njeuhmeli et al. in “Voluntary Medical

  14. Food commodities from microalgae.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Draaisma, René B; Wijffels, René H; Slegers, P M Ellen; Brentner, Laura B; Roy, Adip; Barbosa, Maria J

    2013-04-01

    The prospect of sustainable production of food ingredients from photoautotrophic microalgae was reviewed. Clearly, there is scope for microalgal oils to replace functions of major vegetable oils, and in addition to deliver health benefits to food products. Furthermore, with a limited production surface, a substantial portion of the European Union market could be supplied with edible oils and proteins from microalgae. Yet, before microalgal ingredients can become genuinely sustainable and cost effective alternatives for current food commodities, major breakthroughs in production technology and in biorefinery approaches are required. Moreover, before market introduction, evidence on safety of novel microalgal ingredients, is needed. In general, we conclude that microalgae have a great potential as a sustainable feedstock for food commodities. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Mineral commodity summaries 2014

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2014-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2013 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. “Appendix C—Reserves and Resources” includes “Part A—Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2014 are welcomed.

  16. Commodity-Free Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    Commodity-free calibration is a reaction rate calibration technique that does not require the addition of any commodities. This technique is a specific form of the reaction rate technique, where all of the necessary reactants, other than the sample being analyzed, are either inherent in the analyzing system or specifically added or provided to the system for a reason other than calibration. After introduction, the component of interest is exposed to other reactants or flow paths already present in the system. The instrument detector records one of the following to determine the rate of reaction: the increase in the response of the reaction product, a decrease in the signal of the analyte response, or a decrease in the signal from the inherent reactant. With this data, the initial concentration of the analyte is calculated. This type of system can analyze and calibrate simultaneously, reduce the risk of false positives and exposure to toxic vapors, and improve accuracy. Moreover, having an excess of the reactant already present in the system eliminates the need to add commodities, which further reduces cost, logistic problems, and potential contamination. Also, the calculations involved can be simplified by comparison to those of the reaction rate technique. We conducted tests with hypergols as an initial investigation into the feasiblility of the technique.

  17. Mineral commodity summaries 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    Each chapter of the 2013 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries (MCS) includes information on events, trends, and issues for each mineral commodity as well as discussions and tabular presentations on domestic industry structure, Government programs, tariffs, 5-year salient statistics, and world production and resources. The MCS is the earliest comprehensive source of 2012 mineral production data for the world. More than 90 individual minerals and materials are covered by two-page synopses. For mineral commodities for which there is a Government stockpile, detailed information concerning the stockpile status is included in the two-page synopsis. Abbreviations and units of measure, and definitions of selected terms used in the report, are in Appendix A and Appendix B, respectively. “Appendix C—Reserves and Resources” includes “Part A—Resource/Reserve Classification for Minerals” and “Part B—Sources of Reserves Data.” A directory of USGS minerals information country specialists and their responsibilities is Appendix D. The USGS continually strives to improve the value of its publications to users. Constructive comments and suggestions by readers of the MCS 2013 are welcomed.

  18. Water : a commodity or resource?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pomeroy, G.

    2003-01-01

    Over the past several years, natural gas demand has increased significantly, as it is seen as an environmentally friendly, convenient and cost effective fuel. As a result, Alberta should experience the development of a sustainable resource in the form of natural gas from coal, provided adequate management of associated water is in place. The environmental impact and volume of water produced with natural gas from coal can be significant. Water is scarce and demand is growing. Gas producers are faced with the challenge of high water production and disposal costs, and often choose the deep disposal option as the most economical solution. However, environmentalists and agriculture groups who view water as a valuable resource, warrant the costs associated with the treatment of produced water. The author proposed a conceptual solution to this dilemma concerning produced water. It was suggested that producers of water should be connected with consumers, while allowing free market supply and demand dynamics to price out the inefficient use of the resource. The author also discussed the related regulatory, environmental, technological, economic, and commercial issues. It was concluded that water is both a resource and a commodity. Alberta should implement measures to promote water conservation, pollute less, and manage supply and demand. figs

  19. The energy saving possibilities of CDS (Commodity Services System) for large-scale consumers. Calculating and combining for an ideal mix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Gelder, J.W.

    1999-01-01

    Gasunie's new price scheme, the Commodity Services Sector (CDS), will soon apply to all large-scale consumers. Although the scheme is complicated, it does offer various opportunities to reduce the gas bill. The natural gas price was determined solely by volume, whereas the costs largely depend on the services rendered to the customer such as transmission and capacity. The logical solution is thus to charge the customer separately for the gas and the services. In the future, the gas bill will therefore comprise three elements: commodity (gas), capacity and transmission. As far as capacity is concerned, the user can choose between base capacity, additional capacity, incidental capacity and hourly capacity, depending on the natural gas consumption pattern

  20. The Financial Industry's Challenge of Developing Commodity Derivatives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pennings, J.M.E.; Meulenberg, M.T.G.

    1999-01-01

    With a constant new stream of financial services coming to the market, each often more exotic and complicated than the last, the financial services industry, which includes commodity derivatives exchanges, brokerage houses and banks providing price risk reduction services (the so-called hedging

  1. New Commodity Services System increases gas bill for clients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koevoet, H.

    2003-01-01

    The Dutch company Gasunie Trade and Supply will replace the Commodity Services System (CDS, abbreviated in Dutch) January 1, 2004. This will result in a higher gas bill for almost all their clients that are expected to use more than 1 million m 3 natural gas per year. An overview is given of the principles of the old and the new pricing system [nl

  2. Commodity Tracker: Mobile Application for Food Security Monitoring in Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiu, M. T.; Huang, X.; Baird, J.; Gourley, J. R.; Morelli, R.; de Lanerolle, T. R.; Haiti Food Security Monitoring Mobile App Team

    2011-12-01

    Megan Chiu, Jason Baird, Xu Huang, Trishan de Lanerolle, Ralph Morelli, Jonathan Gourley Trinity College, Computer Science Department and Environmental Science Program, 300 Summit Street, Hartford, CT 06106 megan.chiu@trincoll.edu, Jason.baird@trincoll.edu, xu.huang@trincoll.edu, trishan.delanerolle@trincoll.edu, ralph.morelli@trincoll.edu, jonathan.gourley@trincoll.edu Price data for Haiti commodities such as rice and potatoes have been traditionally recorded by hand on paper forms for many years. The information is then entered onto computer manually, thus making the process a long and arduous one. With the development of the Haiti Commodity Tracker mobile app, we are able to make this commodity price data recording process more efficient. Officials may use this information for making inferences about the difference in commodity prices and for food distribution during critical time after natural disasters. This information can also be utilized by governments and aid agencies on their food assistance programs. Agronomists record the item prices from several sample sites in a marketplace and compare those results from other markets across the region. Due to limited connectivity in rural areas, data is first saved to the phone's database and then retransmitted to a central server via SMS messaging. The mobile app is currently being field tested by an international NGO providing agricultural aid and support in rural Haiti.

  3. Humps in the volatility structure of the crude oil futures market: New evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiarella, Carl; Kang, Boda; Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios; Tô, Thuy-Duong

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. The model encompasses hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility, which entails a finite-dimensional affine model for the commodity futures curve and quasi-analytical prices for options on commodity futures. Using an extensive database of crude oil futures and futures options spanning 21 years, we find the presence of hump-shaped, partially spanned stochastic volatility in the crude oil market. The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile, and delivers better pricing as well as hedging performance under various dynamic factor hedging schemes. - Highlights: • This paper analyses the volatility structure of commodity derivatives markets. • 21-years of data on crude oil futures and futures options is used. • The crude oil futures market has hump-shaped, unspanned stochastic volatility. • The hump shaped feature is more pronounced when the market is more volatile. • Hump shape delivers better pricing and hedging compared to exponential decay

  4. Trends and volatility in sub Saharan Africa’s key primary commodity exports

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Ocran

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Using a GARCH model the paper sought to test the hypothesis that price volatility of key Sub Saharan Africa primary commodity exports, have not changed over the past four decades. Whilst crude oil, aluminium, cocoa and six others have not experienced significant change in price volatility over the period, nine other major commodities recorded changes. Efforts need to be made to extensively diversify the portfolio of agricultural commodity exports by including new products of which price volatilities in the past decades have been reduced. This is crucial for countries that depend on up to three primary commodities for the bulk of their foreign exchange earnings. Other measures such as value addition can also help in reducing impacts of unfavourable price movements.

  5. 7 CFR 1599.11 - Use of commodities and sale proceeds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE McGOVERN-DOLE INTERNATIONAL FOOD FOR EDUCATION AND CHILD NUTRITION... sell the donated commodities at a reasonable market price in the economy where the sale occurs. The...

  6. The Role of Speculation in the Determination of Energy Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Umar M. Mustapha

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to evaluate the role of speculation in the determination of global energy prices. Designed as a case study, five major oil producing countries are the focus of this positivistic study: Nigeria, Mexico, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Russia. Data is collected through secondary sources. One-tailed and two-tailed tests carried out on the relationship between speculation and oil prices for each of the five countries yield critical values lower than the alpha. Thus, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternate hypothesis that ‘there is a significant and positive correlation between commodity derivatives (oil futures and oil prices’. The study found that while there is a positive relationship between speculation in the commodity derivatives market and oil prices, such a relationship is at best weak and attributes the high prices to several factors, including political instability, high and rising demand from overheating economies such as China, and falling production levels, among others. The paper emphasized the need to enhance the physical and financial transparency of the energy market, as well as the operation of the supply and demand fundamentals, including regulating against insider trading and market manipulation practices, strengthening the reporting requirements of the dealers in the market, and strengthening capital adequacy and margin requirements.

  7. Trade in water and commodities as adaptations to global change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lammers, R. B.; Hertel, T. W.; Prousevitch, A.; Baldos, U. L. C.; Frolking, S. E.; Liu, J.; Grogan, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The human capacity for altering the water cycle has been well documented and given the expected change due to population, income growth, biofuels, climate, and associated land use change, there remains great uncertainty in both the degree of increased pressure on land and water resources and in our ability to adapt to these changes. Alleviating regional shortages in water supply can be carried out in a spatial hierarchy through i) direct trade of water between all regions, ii) development of infrastructure to improve water availability within regions (e.g. impounding rivers), iii) via inter-basin hydrological transfer between neighboring regions and, iv) via virtual water trade. These adaptation strategies can be managed via market trade in water and commodities to identify those strategies most likely to be adopted. This work combines the physically-based University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model (WBM) with the macro-scale Purdue University Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices Land use and the Environment (SIMPLE) to explore the interaction of supply and demand for fresh water globally. In this work we use a newly developed grid cell-based version of SIMPLE to achieve a more direct connection between the two modeling paradigms of physically-based models with optimization-driven approaches characteristic of economic models. We explore questions related to the global and regional impact of water scarcity and water surplus on the ability of regions to adapt to future change. Allowing for a variety of adaptation strategies such as direct trade of water and expanding the built water infrastructure, as well as indirect trade in commodities, will reduce overall global water stress and, in some regions, significantly reduce their vulnerability to these future changes.

  8. Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lya Aklimawati

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1 understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139and F-statistic (0.640449 were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1 was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LBon the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1 were normally distributed, because AR (29, MA (29, RESID (-1^2, and GARCH (-1 were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

  9. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Günther, H.O.; Beek, van P.; Grunow, M.; Habla, C.

    2009-01-01

    We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply

  10. A route-based decomposition for the Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gamst, Mette

    2012-01-01

    The Multi-Commodity k-splittable Maximum Flow Problem routes flow through a capacitated graph such that each commodity uses at most k paths and such that the total amount of routedflow is maximized. This paper proposes a branch-and-price algorithm based on a route-based Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition...

  11. CAUSAL RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GRAIN, MEAT PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naveen Musunuru

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Understanding agricultural commodity price relationships are important as they help producers improve their awareness regarding production costs and ultimately aid in income determination. The present paper empirically examines the dynamic interrelationships among grain, meat prices and the U.S. dollar exchange rate. Johansen cointegration tests reveal no cointegrating relationships among the study variables. Majority of the commodities studied in the paper exhibited unidirectional causality except for corn and lean hogs. The vector autoregression (VAR model results indicate that the grain and meat prices are influenced by their own past prices. The role of exchange rates is found to be limited in linking the agricultural commodities.

  12. Poverty, Policy and Price Transmission

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elleby, Christian

    This thesis consists of four self-contained chapters in which different aspects of the relationship between international commodity markets and domestic food markets are explored. What motivates the analysis is the recent surge in international commodity prices and the controversy over the poverty...... domestic goods. Households prefer the traded good which they substitute towards as their incomes increase, thus exposing themselves to world market price swings. Price transmission from international to domestic markets therefore increases with per capita income but also with income inequality. Model...... impact of the 2007-8 ‘food crisis’, in particular. The first paper analyses, in a stylized economic model, how the response of domestic aggregate food prices to an international shock depends on features of the country’s income distribution. The model is based on a dichotomy between traded and purely...

  13. Response of the Polish Wheat Prices to the Worlds Crude Oil Prices

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    HAMULCZUK

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Agricultural commodities prices play crucial role both in farmers income determination and in price relationship establishment for the whole economy. Among the factors influencing the wheat prices, crude oil prices are considered as one of the most important. The aim of this paper was to assess the character of linkage between world crude oil prices and Polish wheat prices. Results of the research confirm the existence of such linkage although the nature and the strength of this relationship changes over time. However, the long-run relationships between the crude oil and Polish wheat prices were not proven. Moreover, growing impact of crude oil prices on Polish wheat prices over time was not detected. The results suggest that exchange rates may strongly influence wheat prices. This in turn may weaken response of Polish wheat prices in relation to world crude oil prices.

  14. Essays on business cycles and stabilization policy in a small commodity-exporting economy

    OpenAIRE

    Charnavoki, Valery

    2012-01-01

    It is well known that highly volatile and persistent commodity prices signi cantly a ect the global economic activity. Their e ect is especially pronounced in small commodityexporting economies, where primary resources provide an important source of export earnings. In these economies, commodity price changes entail very large e ects on the balance of payments, exchange rates, output, sectoral composition and public nance, and, as a result, pose serious problems for the conduc...

  15. 17 CFR 1.1 - Fraud in or in connection with transactions in foreign currency subject to the Commodity Exchange...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... transactions in foreign currency subject to the Commodity Exchange Act. 1.1 Section 1.1 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION GENERAL REGULATIONS UNDER THE COMMODITY EXCHANGE ACT Definitions § 1.1 Fraud in or in connection with transactions in foreign currency subject to the...

  16. 17 CFR 33.6 - Suspension or revocation of designation as a contract market for the trading of commodity options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... trading presents a substantial risk to the public interest. (Approved by the Office of Management and... designation as a contract market for the trading of commodity options. 33.6 Section 33.6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION REGULATION OF DOMESTIC EXCHANGE-TRADED COMMODITY...

  17. Petroleum price; Prix du petrole

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maurice, J

    2001-07-01

    The oil market is the most volatile of all markets, with the exception of the Nasdaq. It is also the biggest commodity market in the world. Therefore one cannot avoid forecasting oil prices, nor can one expect to avoid the forecasting errors that have been made in the past. In his report, Joel Maurice draws a distinction between the short term and the medium-long term in analysing the outlook for oil prices. (author)

  18. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James J Elser

    Full Text Available Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum. Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  19. Regime shift in fertilizer commodities indicates more turbulence ahead for food security.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elser, James J; Elser, Timothy J; Carpenter, Stephen R; Brock, William A

    2014-01-01

    Recent human population increase has been enabled by a massive expansion of global agricultural production. A key component of this "Green Revolution" has been application of inorganic fertilizers to produce and maintain high crop yields. However, the long-term sustainability of these practices is unclear given the eutrophying effects of fertilizer runoff as well as the reliance of fertilizer production on finite non-renewable resources such as mined phosphate- and potassium-bearing rocks. Indeed, recent volatility in food and agricultural commodity prices, especially phosphate fertilizer, has raised concerns about emerging constraints on fertilizer production with consequences for its affordability in the developing world. We examined 30 years of monthly prices of fertilizer commodities (phosphate rock, urea, and potassium) for comparison with three food commodities (maize, wheat, and rice) and three non-agricultural commodities (gold, nickel, and petroleum). Here we show that all commodity prices, except gold, had significant change points between 2007-2009, but the fertilizer commodities, and especially phosphate rock, showed multiple symptoms of nonlinear critical transitions. In contrast to fertilizers and to rice, maize and wheat prices did not show significant signs of nonlinear dynamics. From these results we infer a recent emergence of a scarcity price in global fertilizer markets, a result signaling a new high price regime for these essential agricultural inputs. Such a regime will challenge on-going efforts to establish global food security but may also prompt fertilizer use practices and nutrient recovery strategies that reduce eutrophication.

  20. Continuity of the equilibrium price density and its uses in peak-load pricing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Horsley, A.; Wrobel, A.J.

    2005-01-01

    With L∞ as the commodity space, the equilibrium price density is shown to be a continuous function of the commodity characteristics. The result is based on symmetry ideas from the Hardy-Littlewood-Pólya theory of rearrangements. It includes, but is not limited to, the case of symmetric

  1. Analysis Of Coppers Market And Price-Focus On The Last Decades Change And Its Future Trend

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugie Kabwe

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract it is important to analyse the major players within a copper supply chain as well as current market dynamics relevant international guidelines major impacts affecting the sustainability of the whole system and policy drivers affecting its price on the global market. Focusis on understanding major and provisional factors affecting copper price on themarketlong-term copper prices are determined by the fundamentals of supply and demand. Short term however are driven by financial market and other variables. Through analysis of the major factors and present market dynamics global copper consumption increased since 1970 regardless of the economic slump in 2007-2009 growth is likely to continuechiefly driven by increasing demand in China and India. Since 2004 the price of copper on the global market increased drastically its consumption was mainly concentrated in developed industrial countries. The economic situation of developed countries has a greater impact on copper prices addition of Asian nations increased urbanization and industrialization. Forecasts remain progressive asAsia advance with urbanization and industrializationplans. Anticipated to account for a major growth in global copper in the next 20 years will present a large task to double copper supply output. Urbanization and industrialization will continue to surge copper demand projected to overcome global copper production high demandbut lesser supply on the market.The decline of copper supply would cause a mountingdeficit in turn increase demand by 2025. Asias level of economic activity and urbanization is far from complete it will be a chief source of copper demand in the decades to come.

  2. A Multiperiod Equilibrium Pricing Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Minsuk Kwak

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose an equilibrium pricing model in a dynamic multiperiod stochastic framework with uncertain income. There are one tradable risky asset (stock/commodity, one nontradable underlying (temperature, and also a contingent claim (weather derivative written on the tradable risky asset and the nontradable underlying in the market. The price of the contingent claim is priced in equilibrium by optimal strategies of representative agent and market clearing condition. The risk preferences are of exponential type with a stochastic coefficient of risk aversion. Both subgame perfect strategy and naive strategy are considered and the corresponding equilibrium prices are derived. From the numerical result we examine how the equilibrium prices vary in response to changes in model parameters and highlight the importance of our equilibrium pricing principle.

  3. 75 FR 55698 - Commodity Pool Operations: Relief From Compliance With Certain Disclosure, Reporting and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-09-14

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 4 RIN 3038-AC46 Commodity Pool Operations: Relief From Compliance With Certain Disclosure, Reporting and Recordkeeping Requirements for Registered CPOs of Commodity Pools Listed for...

  4. 76 FR 28641 - Commodity Pool Operators: Relief From Compliance With Certain Disclosure, Reporting and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-05-18

    ... Release).\\2\\ The Proposing Release commenced by explaining the history and background of the regulation of... are subject to certain operational and advertising requirements under Part 4, to all other provisions... 4 Advertising, Brokers, Commodity futures, Commodity pool operators, Commodity trading advisors...

  5. Commodities, energy and environmental finance

    CERN Document Server

    Ludkovski, Michael; Sircar, Ronnie

    2015-01-01

    This volume is a collection of chapters covering the latest developments in applications of financial mathematics and statistics to topics in energy, commodity financial markets and environmental economics. The research presented is based on the presentations and discussions that took place during the Fields Institute Focus Program on Commodities, Energy and Environmental Finance in August 2013. The authors include applied mathematicians, economists and industry practitioners, providing for a multi-disciplinary spectrum of perspectives on the subject. The volume consists of four sections: Electricity Markets; Real Options; Trading in Commodity Markets; and Oligopolistic Models for Energy Production. Taken together, the chapters give a comprehensive summary of the current state of the art in quantitative analysis of commodities and energy finance. The topics covered include structural models of electricity markets, financialization of commodities, valuation of commodity real options, game-theory analysis of ...

  6. Ethanol, Corn, and Soybean Price Relations in a Volatile Vehicle-Fuels Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Escalante

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The rapid upward shift in ethanol demand has raised concerns about ethanol’s impact on the price level and volatility of agricultural commodities. The popular press attributes much of this volatility in commodity prices to a price bubble in ethanol fuel and recent deflation. Market economics predicts not only a softening of demand to high commodity prices but also a positive supply response. This volatility in ethanol and commodity prices are investigated using cointegration, vector error corrections (VECM, and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedascity (MGARCH models. In terms of derived demand theory, results support ethanol and oil demands as derived demands from vehicle-fuel production. Gasoline prices directly influence the prices of ethanol and oil. However, of greater significance for the fuel versus food security issue, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibriums after a demand or supply event (shock. Such shocks may in the short-run increase agricultural commodity prices, but decentralized freely operating markets will mitigate the persistence of these shocks. Results indicate in recent years there are no long-run relations among fuel (ethanol, oil and gasoline prices and agricultural commodity (corn and soybean prices.

  7. 17 CFR 17.00 - Information to be furnished by futures commission merchants, clearing members and foreign brokers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 7 S Strike Price. 51 1 AN Exercise Style. 52 7 N Long—Buy—Stopped. 59 7 N Short—Sell—Issued. 66 5 AN... notices issued and stopped, and exchanges of futures for a commodity or for a derivatives position bought...) Reporting firm. The clearing member number assigned by an exchange or clearing house to identify reporting...

  8. LNG: a commodity in the making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabrelie, M.F.

    2006-01-01

    Although still far being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realization of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7% year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  9. LNG: a commodity in the making

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chabrelie, M.F.

    2006-01-01

    Although still far from being a commodity, LNG is undoubtedly emerging as an essential vector for world gas expansion. The flexibility it procures in terms of supply is of prime importance for future market equilibrium. Despite a number of uncertainties and constraints liable to thwart the realisation of the most optimistic growth prospects, the LNG trade remains wedded to rapid growth of about 7%/year by 2020, boosting its share of world gas trade to some 38% by that horizon. (author)

  10. Reconciling biofuels, sustainability and commodities demand. Pitfalls and policy options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uslu, A.; Bole, T.; Londo, M.; Pelkmans, L.; Berndes, G.; Prieler, S.; Fischer, G.; Cueste Cabal, H.

    2010-06-01

    prices. Furthermore, land use change both through converting natural land to produce 1st generation biofuels, and by displacing existing agricultural activities to other areas, may drastically impact the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction of biofuels production and use. However, there are ways to reduce negative impacts. Even though shifting to second generation (2nd generation) biofuels appears to be one of the best solutions in terms of decreasing the pressure on agricultural commodity markets and improving GHG performances of biofuels, a mix of 1st and 2nd generation biofuels will be the likely future. In this respect, strategies to increase agricultural productivity, especially in developing countries where yields presently are low, stands out as one of the most important requirements. Food security and agricultural productivity improvements have been addressed as part of the millennium development goals (MDG's). But policy-driven biofuel production that impacts global agricultural markets should also become part of the policy framework that supports agricultural productivity increase in the world regions that are likely to be impacted most with increased biofuel demand. 2nd generation biofuels can decrease some of the pressure on agriculture commodities if they are produced from residues and crops cultivated on marginal lands. They are in addition expected to provide a substantial contribution to reducing GHG emissions. However, those technologies are still at demonstration stage and bringing them to the market requires policy measures that take into account their risk profiles and create a favourable and stable investment climate. A set of policy options, for instance combinations of high investment subsidies with soft loans, tax exemptions, and favourable crediting in relation to biofuel targets, can help overcome the initial investment barriers and enable larger volumes of 2nd generation biofuel penetration into the market. Lignocellulosic feedstocks are

  11. Investing today in energy for tomorrow. U.S. civilian nuclear industry: high-level oversight. Oil prices: getting close to the psychological threshold. The future of biofuels in question; Investir aujourd'hui pour l'energie de demain. Le nucleaire civil sous haute surveillance. Prix du petrole: le seuil psychologique approche. L'avenir des biocarburants en question

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon

    2008-07-01

    This issue of Alternatives newsletter features 4 main articles dealing with: 1 - Investing today in energy for tomorrow: Whether to increase or to replace generating capacity, the amount of investment needed in energy infrastructure to meet rising demand has been identified, but many obstacles must be overcome before they become a reality. A status report and personal perspective from Pierre Gadonneix, CEO of EDF, in the 'Expert opinion' section. 2 - U.S. civilian nuclear industry - high-level oversight: The approaches are clearly different, but the licensing processes for nuclear reactor development and operation in France and the United States are both strictly regulated. Alternatives delves further. 3 - Oil prices - getting close to the psychological threshold: Are we going to stop using oil sooner rather than later if crude prices keep going up? European commodities expert Philippe Chalmin shares his opinion. 4 - The future of biofuels in question In many countries, biofuels are seen as an alternative to oil. Still, farmland is not expandable forever and the economics of biofuels deserve some scrutiny.

  12. The Commodity and its Exchange

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Høst, Jeppe Engset

    2015-01-01

    This chapter examines fishing quota as a commodity in both a conceptual perspective and through ethnographic examples. Inspired by Marx’s ideas of the commodity, use-value, exchange-value, and ground rent, the chapter combines a theoretical approach with ethnographic material. The different aspects...

  13. Gas and LNG pricing and trading hub in East Asia: An introduction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xunpeng Shi

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper summarizes the four papers in the special issues on ‘Gas and LNG pricing and trading hub in East Asia’. The papers examine lessons and experience from European hub development, other commodity, the Japanese history on developing of futures markets and inter-fuel substitution in East Asia. The papers finds that liquid futures market is the key to formulate benchmark prices while a well-developed spot market is the foundation; political will and strong leadership are required to overcome the power of incumbents and to restructure the gas market that impede the the development of competitive markets; and East Asia needs to develop its indigenous gas or LNG trading hubs even in low oil prices period and its developing market allows easier changes in new contracts than in existing ones. This hub development requires governments to go through tough domestic market reforms, including liberalization and cooperation with each other and with gas exporters.

  14. 41 CFR 51-2.7 - Fair market price.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 true Fair market price. 51-2.7... WHO ARE BLIND OR SEVERELY DISABLED § 51-2.7 Fair market price. (a) The Committee is responsible for determining fair market prices, and changes thereto, for commodities and services on the Procurement List. The...

  15. Emergence of Commodity Derivatives as Defensive Instrument in Portfolio Risk Hedging: A Case of Indian Commodity Markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singhal Shelly

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper empirically examines whether commodity derivatives can be used as an alternative investment asset in India where commodity markets are at emerging state and provides the same diversification benefit as they provide in developed commodity markets. In India only commodity futures are prevalent so various commodity indices representing various sectors has been used in the study. Diversification aspect of commodity derivatives has been tested initially by using correlation analysis. Compounded Daily Growth rate and Relative Standard deviation has been used as a measure of calculating risk and return of daily data of SENSEX, BOND and four Commodity Indices (MCX Comdex, MCX AGRI, MCX Metal, MCX Energy. Markowitz Efficient Frontier theory has been used to calculate portfolio risk return and Sharpe risk adjusted ratio has been used to evaluate the various portfolios. Optimal portfolio has been obtained for the combination of equity, bond and commodity and overall results of the study indicate that an investor who is risk averse will prefer to invest in combination of SENSEX, BOND & MCX Energy whereas an investor who gets utility by taking more risk for more returns will prefer to invest in combination of SENSEX, BOND & MCX Metal. Investor having inclination towards moderate risk return would tend to invest in MCX AGRI along with SENSEX and BOND.

  16. Petroleum: Price trends

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Babusiaux, Denis; Pierru, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The Organization of Petroleum-Exporting Countries (OPEC), some political leaders and financiers have mainly attributed the price spike of oil in 2008 - followed by a just as spectacular drop in prices - to the speculative moves made by financial investors on the futures market instead of to market fundamentals

  17. Dynamic Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sharifi, Reza; Anvari-Moghaddam, Amjad; Fathi, S. Hamid

    2017-01-01

    Dynamic pricing scheme, also known as real-time pricing (RTP), can be more efficient and technically beneficial than the other price-based schemes (such as flat-rate or time-of-use (TOU) pricing) for enabling demand response (DR) actions. Over the past few years, advantages of RTP-based schemes h...

  18. The role of storage dynamics in annual wheat prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schewe, Jacob; Otto, Christian; Frieler, Katja

    2017-05-01

    Identifying the drivers of global crop price fluctuations is essential for estimating the risks of unexpected weather-induced production shortfalls and for designing optimal response measures. Here we show that with a consistent representation of storage dynamics, a simple supply-demand model can explain most of the observed variations in wheat prices over the last 40 yr solely based on time series of annual production and long term demand trends. Even the most recent price peaks in 2007/08 and 2010/11 can be explained by additionally accounting for documented changes in countries’ trade policies and storage strategies, without the need for external drivers such as oil prices or speculation across different commodity or stock markets. This underlines the critical sensitivity of global prices to fluctuations in production. The consistent inclusion of storage into a dynamic supply-demand model closes an important gap when it comes to exploring potential responses to future crop yield variability under climate and land-use change.

  19. 78 FR 16189 - Transportation of Agricultural Commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-03-14

    ... Commodities AGENCY: Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), DOT. ACTION: Final rule. SUMMARY: FMCSA promulgates the regulatory exemptions for the ``transportation of agricultural commodities and... has been in effect since 1995. Under the new provision, drivers transporting agricultural commodities...

  20. Price fairness

    OpenAIRE

    Diller, Hermann

    2013-01-01

    Purpose – The purpose of this article is to integrate the various strands of fair price research into a concise conceptual model. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed price fairness model is based on a review of the fair pricing literature, incorporating research reported in not only English but also German. Findings – The proposed fair price model depicts seven components of a fair price: distributive fairness, consistent behaviour, personal respect and regard for the partner, fair dea...

  1. Gas Price Formation, Structure and Dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davoust, R.

    2008-01-01

    Our study, focused on gas prices in importing economies, describes wholesale prices and retail prices, their evolution for the last one or two decades, the economic mechanisms of price formation. While an international market for oil has developed thanks to moderate storage and transportation charges, these costs are much higher in the case of natural gas, which involves that this energy is still traded inside continental markets. There are three regional gas markets around the world: North America (the United States, importing mainly from Canada and Mexico), Europe (importing mainly from Russia, Algeria and Norway) and Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan, China and India, importing mainly from Indonesia, Malaysia and Australia). A market for gas has also developed in South America, but it will not be covered by our paper. In Europe and the US, due to large domestic resources and strong grids, natural gas is purchased mostly through pipelines. In Northeast Asia, there is a lack of such infrastructures, so imported gas takes mainly the form of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), shipped on maritime tankers. Currently, the LNG market is divided into two zones: the Atlantic Basin (Europe and US) and the Pacific Basin (Asia and the Western Coast of America). For the past few years, the Middle East and Africa have tended to be crucial suppliers for both LNG zones. Gas price formation varies deeply between regional markets, depending on several structural factors (regulation, contracting practises, existence of a spot market, liquidity, share of imports). Empirically, the degree of market opening (which corresponds to the seniority in the liberalization process) seems to be the primary determinant of pricing patterns. North America has the most liberalized and well-performing natural gas industry in the world. Gas pricing is highly competitive and is based on supply/demand balances. Spot and futures markets are developed. The British gas sector is also deregulated and thus follows a

  2. Understanding gasoline pricing in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    2001-01-01

    Pricing policies for gasoline by Canadian oil companies are discussed. An attempt is made to demonstrate that competition between oil companies is extremely keen, and markups are so small that to stay in business, retail outlets have to sell huge volumes and sell non-fuel products, as a means to increase revenues and margins. An explanation is provided for why gasoline prices move in unison, and why what appears to the public as collusion and gouging is, in fact, the result of retail dealers attempting to stay in business. The high prices are attributed mainly to taxes by municipalities, the provinces and the federal government; taxes are said to account for 40 to 50 per cent of the pump price. The cost of crude makes up another 35 to 45 per cent, refining adds 10 to 15 per cent, with the remaining 5 to 10 per cent representing retail costs. (Taxes in the United States average 20 to 30 per cent). Over the longer term, gasoline prices consistently reflect the cost of crude oil, dominated by the OPEC countries which supply about 41 per cent of daily world production. Another factor is the rise of global and regional commodity markets for refined products such as gasoline. Commodity traders buy wholesale gasoline cheaply whenever it is in oversupply, and sell it for a profit into markets where the demand is greater. While this is claimed to ensure competitive prices in all markets, the practice can also trigger abrupt changes in regional markets

  3. Quarterly Web Interfaced Commodity Reporting

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Agency for International Development — QWICR is a secure, online Title II commodity reporting system accessible to USAID Missions, PVO Cooperating Sponsors and Food for Peace Officers. QWICR provides PVO...

  4. Food and Feed Commodity Vocabulary

    Science.gov (United States)

    Food and Feed Vocabulary was developed to consolidate all the major OPP Commodity Vocabularies into one standardized vocabulary. The EPA-preferred term is the only term that can be used in setting tolerances.

  5. Transportation profiles for MAFC commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-08-01

    Effective planning for freight in the public sector is often hindered by the difficulty in obtaining reliable estimates of the quantity of : freight commodities flowing between points in the planning area. In an effort to address this issue, the stat...

  6. Military and Private Sector Commodity Outlets: A Retail Price Comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    1985-02-01

    American University Technical review by Hyder Lakhani David Horne NOT ICES DISTRIBUTION: Primary distribution of this report has been made by ARI...indebted to a number of individuals for their advice and sugges- tions during the course of this study. Specifically, LTC David D. Dee, Scott E. Simpson, and...K-Mart: Steel Bowl 4. K-Mart brand 5. PX: Tip Top brand. PX: Goody brand 6. Flicker, both stores 7. K-Mart brand 8. Tastemaker 9. Sassoon -84- Table

  7. Stochastic Modeling and Analysis of Energy Commodity Spot Price Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-06-27

    is a martingale . We shall use this definition to find a risk-neutral dynamics for our model (4.8). Define the riskless asset Bi(t) = exp [∫ t t0 ri... martingale with respect to P̄ , and is given by D1(t) = D10 exp [ −12 ∫ t t0 δ2ds− ∫ t t0 δdW̄1(s) ] D2(t) = D20 exp [ −12 ∫ t t0 σ2(s, y2s − κ1)ds+ ∫ t...Models, Advanced Drug Delivery Reviews, Vol. 65, No. 7, pp 929-939. [34] Doob, J.L., 1955. Martingales and one-dimensional diffusion. Trans. Amer. Math

  8. When do relative prices matter for measuring income inequality? The case of food prices in Mozambique

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Salvucci, Vincenzo

    2015-01-01

    are accounted for, inequality of real consumption increases substantially. We obtain this result by constructing a price deflator that reflects divergent price dynamics of different product categories. Since the main factors driving this result prevail in other developing countries, it is likely that inequality......Changes in relative prices of commodities consumed in different shares across income groups can be expected to alter real income differentials between these groups. Using Mozambican household budget survey and price data from 2002/03 and 2008/09, we show that once relative price increases...

  9. Do financial investors affect the price of wheat?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniele Girardi

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available It is widely debated whether financial speculation was a significant force behind recent food price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, during the 2000s agricultural commodity derivatives markets were flooded by a ‘wall of money’ coming from financial investors. In agricultural exchanges, the greatest part of this huge financial inflow came from index traders, i.e. financial actors that follow a passive strategy of tracking a commodity index. In this article I present new empirical evidence that supports the hypothesis that financial investments have affected wheat price dynamics in recent years. In particular, I focus on Hard Red Winter (HRW wheat. Since 2007 HRW wheat price fluctuations have been positively related to US stock market returns and oil price movements. These correlations appear to be determined by commodity index traders, since both these relationships proved to be spurious, with the most tracked commodity index as the confounding variable.

  10. Factors that influence consumers' acceptance of future energy systems : the effects of adjustment type, production level, and price

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Leijten, Fenna R. M.; Bolderdijk, Jan Willem; Keizer, Kees; Gorsira, Madelijne; van der Werff, Ellen; Steg, Linda

    2014-01-01

    To promote the successful introduction of sustainable energy systems, more insight is needed into factors influencing consumer's acceptance of future energy systems. A questionnaire study among 139 Dutch citizens (aged 18-85) was conducted. Participants rated the acceptability of energy systems made

  11. Pricing of Asian temperature risk

    OpenAIRE

    Cabrera, Brenda López

    2009-01-01

    Weather derivatives (WD) are different from most financial derivatives because the underlying weather cannot be traded and therefore cannot be replicated by other financial instruments. The market price of risk (MPR) is an important parameter of the associated equivalent martingale measures used to price and hedge weather futures/options in the market. The majority of papers so far have priced non-tradable assets assuming zero MPR, but this assumption underestimates WD prices. We study the MP...

  12. Value chain management for commodities: a case study from the chemical industry

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kannegiesser, M.; Gunther, H.O.; van Beek, P.

    2009-01-01

    quantity, price and supply decisions throughout the value chain. A two-phase optimization approach supports robust planning ensuring minimum profitability even in case of worst-case spot sales price scenarios. Model evaluations with industry case data demonstrate the impact of elasticities, variable raw......We present a planning model for chemical commodities related to an industry case. Commodities are standard chemicals characterized by sales and supply volatility in volume and value. Increasing and volatile prices of crude oil-dependent raw materials require coordination of sales and supply...... decisions by volume and value throughout the value chain to ensure profitability. Contract and spot demand differentiation with volatile and uncertain spot prices, spot sales quantity flexibility, spot sales price-quantity functions and variable raw material consumption rates in production are problem...

  13. Mineral commodity profiles: Silver

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butterman, W.C.; Hilliard, Henry E.

    2005-01-01

    United States, about 30 companies accounted for more than 90 percent of the silver fabricated. The consumption of silver for all fabrication uses is expected to grow slowly through the decade ending in 2010 at about 1.3 percent per year for the world and 2.4 percent per year for the United States. World and U.S. reserves and reserve bases are more than adequate to satisfy the demand for newly mined silver through 2010. The other components of supply will be silver recovered from scrap, silver from industrial stocks, and silver bullion that is sold into the market from commodity exchange and private stocks.

  14. [Research progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica and discussion on several key problems].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Guang; Zeng, Yan; Guo, Lan-Ping; Huang, Lu-Qi; Jin, Yan; Zheng, Yu-Guang; Wang, Yong-Yan

    2014-05-01

    Standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica is an important way to solve the "Lemons Problem" of traditional Chinese medicine market. Standards of commodity classes are also helpful to rebuild market mechanisms for "high price for good quality". The previous edition of commodity classes standards of Chinese materia medica was made 30 years ago. It is no longer adapted to the market demand. This article researched progress on standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It considered that biological activity is a better choice than chemical constituents for standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. It is also considered that the key point to set standards of commodity classes is finding the influencing factors between "good quality" and "bad quality". The article also discussed the range of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, and how to coordinate standards of pharmacopoeia and commodity classes. According to different demands, diversiform standards can be used in commodity classes of Chinese materia medica, but efficacy is considered the most important index of commodity standard. Decoction pieces can be included in standards of commodity classes of Chinese materia medica. The authors also formulated the standards of commodity classes of Notoginseng Radix as an example, and hope this study can make a positive and promotion effect on traditional Chinese medicine market related research.

  15. Carbon futures and macroeconomic risk factors. A view from the EU ETS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, Julien

    2009-01-01

    This article examines the empirical relationship between the returns on carbon futures - a new class of commodity assets traded since 2005 on the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) - and changes in macroeconomic conditions. By using variables which possess forecast power for equity and commodity returns, we document that carbon futures returns may be weakly forecast on the basis of two variables from the stock and bond markets, i.e. equity dividend yields and the 'junk bond' premium. Our results also suggest that the forecast abilities of two variables related to interest rates variation and economic trends on global commodity markets, respectively the U.S. Treasury bill yields and the excess return on the Reuters/CRB Index, are not robust on the carbon market. This latter result reinforces the belief that the EU ETS is currently operating as a very specific commodity market, with distinct fundamentals linked to allowance supply and power demand. The sensitivity of carbon futures to macroeconomic influences is carefully identified following a sub-sample decomposition before and after August 2007, which attempts to take into account the potential impact of the 'credit crunch' crisis. Collectively, these results challenge the market observers' viewpoint that carbon futures prices are immediately correlated with changes in the macroeconomic environment, and rather suggest that the carbon market is only remotely connected to macroeconomic variables. The economic logic behind these results may be related to the fuel-switching behavior of power producers in influencing primarily carbon futures price changes. (author)

  16. World oil prices: Up or down in 1995? and beyond?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Browning, R.E.

    1994-01-01

    After a brief review of historical oil prices up to 1993-94, the factors influencing future prices are discussed. A survey of oil supply and demand over 1986-1993 shows oil demand has risen in Asia and fallen in the former Soviet Union and central/eastern Europe (FSU/CEE). Non-OPEC oil supply fell from 42.1 million bbl/d (MMBD) in 1986 to 40.6 MMBD in 1993, reflecting declines in Russian and U.S. production. Total OPEC production rose in the same period from 18.3 MMBD to 24.7 MMBD. OPEC production will continue to be dominant in determining prices, and demand in growing Asian economies and the FSU/CEE countries will be the most important and uncertain demand-side factor. If 7.5 MMBD of new OPEC capacity comes on stream by 2000 and OPEC production averages 31 MMBD in 2000, the utilization rate for OPEC oil at that time would be about the same as in 1973-79 and 1994. World oil production costs vary considerably by region, with the USA, North Sea, and Canada having relatively high costs; yet even in those regions, costs have been declining. A global weighted average cost based on 1993 production is $8-9/bbl. Fiscal and financial factors affecting oil prices include the need for oil revenue among oil producers. This need will put pressure on FSU economies to continue exports, although increases in such exports will require new infrastructure. In any case, the world oil market is likely to see a continuing trend to regarding oil as a commodity, which tends to reduce the control that physical participants exert on price-setting. Long-term real prices are not expected to rise but will likely remain volatile, cycling around $13/bbl. Spot prices in 1995 for West Texas Intermediate are forecast to be in the $16-20/bbl range. 4 figs., 4 tabs

  17. Price Discrimination

    OpenAIRE

    Armstrong, M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper surveys recent economic research on price discrimination, both in monopoly and oligopoly markets. Topics include static and dynamic forms of price discrimination, and both final and input markets are considered. Potential antitrust aspects of price discrimination are highlighted throughout the paper. The paper argues that the informational requirements to make accurate policy are very great, and with most forms of price discrimination a laissez-faire policy may be the best availabl...

  18. Transfer Pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Larsen, Mads Grenaa; Nørgaard, Mads Frid; Hansen, Manjarita

    2013-01-01

    This project seeks to highlight some of the criticisms given towards the OECD Transfer Pricing Guidelines and the challenges Danish companies experience by pricing their goods and the problems this causes for trade. The project is based on a series of interviews that represent the different agents who are operating in Transfer Pricing business. These interviews, combined with the Transfer Pricing Guidelines, gives us the basis to analyse the challenges we want to clarify based on the hypothes...

  19. 7 CFR 65.135 - Covered commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Covered commodity. 65.135 Section 65.135 Agriculture... OF BEEF, PORK, LAMB, CHICKEN, GOAT MEAT, PERISHABLE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, MACADAMIA NUTS, PECANS, PEANUTS, AND GINSENG General Provisions Definitions § 65.135 Covered commodity. (a) Covered commodity...

  20. 7 CFR 250.57 - Commodity schools.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity schools. 250.57 Section 250.57 Agriculture... TERRITORIES AND POSSESSIONS AND AREAS UNDER ITS JURISDICTION National School Lunch Program (NSLP) and Other Child Nutrition Programs § 250.57 Commodity schools. (a) Categorization of commodity schools. Commodity...

  1. 29 CFR 780.114 - Wild commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 29 Labor 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Wild commodities. 780.114 Section 780.114 Labor Regulations... AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AND RELATED SUBJECTS UNDER THE FAIR LABOR STANDARDS ACT General Scope of Agriculture Agricultural Or Horticultural Commodities § 780.114 Wild commodities. Employees engaged in the gathering or...

  2. 48 CFR 8.715 - Replacement commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Replacement commodities. 8... Are Blind or Severely Disabled 8.715 Replacement commodities. When a commodity on the Procurement List is replaced by another commodity which has not been previously acquired, and a qualified AbilityOne...

  3. The effects of global shocks on small commodity-exporting economies: New evidence from Canada

    OpenAIRE

    Charnavoki, Valery; Dolado, Juan J.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a structural dynamic factor model of a small commodity-exporting economy using Canada as a representative case study. Combining large panel data sets of the global and Canadian economies, we first identify those demand and supply shocks that explain most of the volatility in real commodity prices. Next we quantify their dynamic effects on a wide variety of variables for this economy. We are able to reproduce all the main stylized facts documented in the literature about bu...

  4. The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements. An event study perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Demirer, Riza; Kutan, Ali M.

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the informational efficiency of crude oil spot and futures markets with respect to OPEC conference and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) announcements. We employ the event study methodology to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets around OPEC conference and SPR announcement dates between 1983 and 2008. Our findings regarding OPEC announcements indicate an asymmetry in that only OPEC production cut announcements yield a statistically significant impact with the impact diminishing for longer maturities. We also find that the persistence of returns following OPEC production cut announcements creates substantial excess returns to investors who take long positions on the day following the end of OPEC conferences. In the case of SPR announcements, we find that the government's use of this program initiates a short-run market reaction following the announcement date. Furthermore, our tests of cumulative abnormal returns suggest that the market reacts efficiently to SPR announcements providing support for the use of the strategic reserves as a tool to stabilize the oil market. Our findings have significant policy implications for investors and are useful in designing effective energy policy strategies. (author)

  5. Price performance following stock's IPO in different price limit systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Ting; Wang, Yue; Li, Ming-Xia

    2018-01-01

    An IPO burst occurred in China's stock markets in 2015, while price limit trading rules usually help to reduce the short-term trading mania on individual stocks. It is interesting to make clear the function of the price limits after IPOs. We firstly make a statistical analysis based on all the IPO stocks listed from 1990 to 2015. A high dependency exists between the activities in stock's IPO and various market environment. We also focus on the price dynamics in the first 40 trading days after the stock listed. We find that price limit system will delay the price movement, especially for the up-trend movements, which may lead to longer continuous price limit hits. Similar to our previous work, many results such as ;W; shape can be also observed in the future daily return after the price limit open. At last, we find most IPO measures show evident correlations with the following price limit hits. IPO stocks with lower first-day turnover and earning per share will be followed with a longer continuous price limit hits and lower future daily return under the newest trading rules, which give us a good way to estimate the occurrence of price limit hits and the following price dynamics. Our analysis provides a better understanding of the price dynamics after IPO events and offers potential practical values for investors.

  6. Mineral commodity profiles: nitrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Deborah A.

    2004-01-01

    contributed the remaining 4 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003b, p. 1-4). In 2002, world ammonia exports were 13.1 Mt of contained nitrogen. Trinidad and Tobago (22 percent), Russia (18 percent), Ukraine (10 percent), and Indonesia (7 percent) accounted for 57 percent of the world total. The largest importing regions were North America with 36 percent of the total followed by Western Europe with 23 percent and Asia with 22 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003b, p. 5L-11). In 2002, world urea production was 51.4 Mt of contained nitrogen, and exports were 12.0 Mt of contained nitrogen. China and India, which were the two largest producing countries, accounted for 48 percent of world production. The United States and Canada produced about 10 percent of the total. Russia and Ukraine together accounted for 28 percent of total urea exports; Central America and South America, 27 percent; and Asia, North America, and Western Europe, 10 percent each. North America accounted for 36 percent of the total urea imports; Western Europe, 23 percent; and Asia, 22 percent (International Fertilizer Industry Association, 2003f, p. 1-15). Ammonia production capacity in North America and Western Europe is projected to decline through 2004, and capacity in other world regions is projected to increase. Fluctuating natural gas prices are mainly responsible for the capacity decline in North America. Ammonia production capacity is continuing to shift to world regions that have abundant sources of natural gas, and away from those where costs (raw material, labor, environmental compliance) are higher.

  7. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2007-01-01

    This article explores factors influencing the motivation and performance of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Several challenges are related to the classical dilemma of matrix organization, but with particular implications in this specific context of purchasing. We report on a reward ...... on an in-depth case study in a multinational industrial company.......This article explores factors influencing the motivation and performance of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Several challenges are related to the classical dilemma of matrix organization, but with particular implications in this specific context of purchasing. We report on a reward...

  8. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  9. Commodity team motivation and performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2008-01-01

    In this article, an in-depth single case study is presented in order to explore and discuss the functioning of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Specifically, the study aimed at identifying factors that may influence team members' motivation to participate in activities that create...... opportunities for synergy and coordination of purchasing. In the teams studied, motivation appeared to be influenced to some degree by a number of factors, including rewards, leadership behaviours, goal setting, and the career goals of the commodity team members. In some cases, inconsistencies between...

  10. Metal prices in the United States through 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    ,

    2013-01-01

    This report, which updates and revises the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) (1999) publication, “Metal Prices in the United States Through 1998,” presents an extended price history for a wide range of metals available in a single document. Such information can be useful for the analysis of mineral commodity issues, as well as for other purposes. The chapter for each mineral commodity includes a graph of annual current and constant dollar prices for 1970 through 2010, where available; a list of significant events that affected prices; a brief discussion of the metal and its history; and one or more tables that list current dollar prices. In some cases, the metal prices presented herein are for some alternative form of an element or, instead of a price, a value, such as the value for an import as appraised by the U.S. Customs Service. Also included are the prices for steel, steel scrap, and iron ore—steel because of its importance to the elements used to alloy with it, and steel scrap and iron ore because of their use in steelmaking. A few minor metals, such as calcium, potassium, sodium, strontium, and thorium, for which price histories were insufficient, were excluded. The annual prices given may be averages for the year, yearend prices, or some other price as appropriate for a particular commodity. Certain trade journals have been the source of much of this price information—American Metal Market, ICIS Chemical Business, Engineering and Mining Journal, Industrial Minerals, Metal Bulletin, Mining Journal, Platts Metals Week, Roskill Information Services Ltd. commodity reports, and Ryan’s Notes. Price information also is available in minerals information publications of the USGS (1880–1925, 1996–present) and the U.S. Bureau of Mines (1926–95), such as Mineral Commodity Summaries, Mineral Facts and Problems, Mineral Industry Surveys, and Minerals Yearbook. In addition to prices themselves, these journals and publications contain information relevant to

  11. Vertical price transmission in the Danish food chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær

    2005-01-01

    This purpose of this paper is to investigate price transmission patterns through selected Danish food chains – from primary production to processing, from processing to wholesale and from wholesale to retail prices. Specifically, the study addresses the following research questions: To what extent...... are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand stage...... considered? These questions are analysed theoretically and empirically using econometric analysis. 6 food chains are investigated: pork, chicken, eggs, milk, sugar and apples. Preliminary empirical results suggest that for most commodities, price transmission tends to be upward asymmetric, i.e. stronger...

  12. Portfolio Diversification with Commodities in Times of Financialization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Zaremba

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The study concentrates on the benefits of passive commodity investments in the context of the phenomenon of financialization. The research investigates the implications of increase in the correlation coefficients between equity and commodity investments for investors in financial markets. The paper is composed of several parts. First, the attributes of commodity investments and their benefits in the portfolio optimization are explored. Second, the phenomenon of the financialization is described and the research hypothesis is developed. Next, an empirical analysis is performed. I simulate the mean-variance spanning tests to examine the benefits of commodity investments before and after accounting for the impact of financialization. I proceed separate analysis for pre- and post-financialization period. The empirical research is based on asset classes’ returns and other related variables from years 1991-2012. The performed investigations indicate that the market financialization may have significant implications for commodity investors. Due to increase in correlation coefficients, the inclusion of the commodity futures in the traditional stock-bond portfolio appears to be no longer reasonable.

  13. Commodity Team Motivation and Performance

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Englyst, Linda; Jørgensen, Frances; Johansen, John

    2007-01-01

    This article explores factors influencing the motivation and performance of commodity teams in a global sourcing context. Several challenges are related to the classical dilemma of matrix organization, but with particular implications in this specific context of purchasing. We report on a reward...

  14. Commodity hardware and software summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolbers, S.

    1997-04-01

    A review is given of the talks and papers presented in the Commodity Hardware and Software Session at the CHEP97 conference. An examination of the trends leading to the consideration of PC's for HEP is given, and a status of the work that is being done at various HEP labs and Universities is given

  15. Impact assessment of commodity standards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruben, Ruerd

    2017-01-01

    Voluntary commodity standards are widely used to enhance the performance of tropical agro-food chains and to support the welfare and sustainability of smallholder farmers. Different methods and approaches are used to assess the effectiveness and impact of these certification schemes at

  16. Aflatoxins in selected Thai commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tansakul, Natthasit; Limsuwan, Sasithorn; Böhm, Josef; Hollmann, Manfred; Razzazi-Fazeli, Ebrahim

    2013-01-01

    Aflatoxin (AF) B1, B2, G1 and G2 were determined in 120 samples of selected Thai commodities including unpolished rice, unpolished glutinous rice, chilli powder, whole dried chilli pods and raw peanut. The mean concentrations of the total AFs for analysed samples were 0.16, 25.43, 14.18, 6.62 and 1.43 µg kg(-1) with positive incidences of 4%, 20%, 97%, 37% and 30%, respectively. Quantitative analysis was performed using HPLC equipped with post-column derivatisation and fluorescence detection. Sample clean-up was carried out using immunoaffinity columns for selective enrichment of AFs. The method was validated by using certified reference material, which showed recoveries over 85%. The limit of detections (LODs) and limit of quantifications (LOQs) were in a range between 0.01-0.11 µg kg(-1) and 0.03-0.38 µg kg(-1), respectively. The results clearly demonstrated that AFs were detectable in different matrices. Chilli powder was found to have the highest level of AFs contamination followed by chilli pods, peanut and rice, respectively. However, among the selected commodities, unpolished rice contained only trace levels of AFB1 and AFB2. With regard to the fact that AFs are a natural contaminant in commodities, this report calls to attention the regular monitoring and effective control of food commodities to prevent health hazards.

  17. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner

    trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...... the determination of transfer price will affect the size of the profit or loss in the organizational units and thus have an impact on the evaluation of managers‟ performance. In some instances the determination of transfer prices may lead to a disagreement between coordination of the organizational units...

  18. Electricity: French industrialists tied up by prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jemain, A.

    2004-01-01

    With more than 50% of increase in 3 years, the electricity prices reach summits in France. The industrialists, initially enthusiastic over the promises of the liberalization of European energy markets, are today particularly disappointed and denounce an irrational logic. The reasons of these inflationary prices are explained in this article: alignment of electricity prices with respect to the prices of the less efficient producers (oil and gas power plants), lack of peak production means which induces prices volatility, a commodity market model unsuitable to electricity specificities, lack of transparency in the establishment of reference prices, no margins for negotiation, and will of Electricite de France (EdF) to restore its financial status. (J.S.)

  19. China : Development of National Heat Pricing and Billing Policy

    OpenAIRE

    Meyer, Anke Sofia; Kalkum, Bernd

    2008-01-01

    Market-based reforms in China's urban centralized heating sector are essential to addressing the perpetual inefficiency of a sector built on welfare based principles. The reform of heat pricing and billing is a crucial part of overall heat reform, since it will commodity heat and thus create economic incentives to provide and use heat much more efficiently. Heat pricing and billing reform ...

  20. Price generating process and volatility in the Nigerian agricultural ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The study examined the price generating process and volatility of Nigerian agricultural commodities market using secondary data for price series on meat, cereals, sugar, dairy and food for the period of January 1990 to February 2014. The data were analysed using both descriptive and inferential statistics. The descriptive ...

  1. Determinants of Relative Sectoral Prices : The Role of Demographic Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Groneck, Max; Kaufmann, Christoph

    Demographic change raises demand for non-tradable old-age related services relative to tradable commodities. This demand shift increases the relative price of non-tradables and thereby causes real exchange rates to appreciate. We claim that the change in demand affects prices via imperfect

  2. Environmental factors influencing fluctuation of share prices on ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Environmental factors influencing fluctuation of share prices on Nigeria stock exchange market. ... Financial markets could be money or capital markets. The commodities traded on these ... The results show inflation, money supply, total deficits index of industrial production, interest rate and GDP influence stock prices.

  3. Segmentation of the industrial market for food commodities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech-Larsen, Tino

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the study presented in this article is to examine whether the cconcepts developed in the area of industrial buying behavior can add to the understanding of commodity markets. The industrial market for vegetable oil was chosen as the outset of the study, because it is characterized...... and mayonnaise industries in Denmark, Sweden, Germany, the United Kingdom and Switzerland. The main result of the study is that the price is an omnipotent decision criterion, when vegetable fats and mayonnaise producers buy vegetable oil, but also that product and supplier criteria can be used to segment...... by the appearance of changing demands and technological opportunities, which potentially can lead to differentiation possibilities. The article describes a framework for the study of industrial buying of food commodities and the results of a conjoint study based on interviews with oil purchasers in the margarine...

  4. 17 CFR 37.3 - Requirements for underlying commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION EXECUTION FACILITIES § 37.3 Requirements for underlying commodities. (a) Trading... that are a security futures product, and the registered derivatives transaction execution facility is a... which the Commission has determined, based on the market characteristics and surveillance history, and...

  5. 75 FR 67258 - Position Reports for Physical Commodity Swaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-02

    ... recently were largely unregulated financial contracts. The Commission's proposal would require position... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Parts 15 and 20 RIN 3038-AD17 Position Reports for... reporting regulations that are reasonably necessary for implementing and enforcing aggregate position limits...

  6. Accumulating through food crisis? Farmers, commodity traders and the distributional politics of financialization

    OpenAIRE

    Baines, Joseph

    2017-01-01

    This paper considers the domestic and international ramifications of financialization and grain price instability in the US agri-food sector. It finds that during the recent period of high and volatile prices, the average income of large-scale farms reached the earnings threshold of the top percentile of US households, and agricultural commodity traders markedly outperformed other corporate groups. In contrast, small-scale farms, particularly those involved in cattle and wheat production, hav...

  7. Equilibrium prices supported by dual price functions in markets with non-convexities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjoerndal, Mette; Joernsten, Kurt

    2004-06-01

    The issue of finding market clearing prices in markets with non-convexities has had a renewed interest due to the deregulation of the electricity sector. In the day-ahead electricity market, equilibrium prices are calculated based on bids from generators and consumers. In most of the existing markets, several generation technologies are present, some of which have considerable non-convexities, such as capacity limitations and large start up costs. In this paper we present equilibrium prices composed of a commodity price and an uplift charge. The prices are based on the generation of a separating valid inequality that supports the optimal resource allocation. In the case when the sub-problem generated as the integer variables are held fixed to their optimal values possess the integrality property, the generated prices are also supported by non-linear price-functions that are the basis for integer programming duality. (Author)

  8. DYNAMICS AND NEW CHALLENGES IN THE GLOBAL COMMODITY MARKET

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    MARIA CARTAS

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Global economy and particularly the world production of goods depends to a large extent on the supply of raw materials, of resource inputs extracted from the environment as well as an easy access to them. Commodities play an important part in the growth of global production and in the world trade in goods and services. The access to raw materials is vital for sustaining the productive capacity of the economy and also for satisfying domestic demand for industrial goods. On the other side, increasing demand for commodities and the need for assuring a sustainable supply pose great challenges on the world economy. The issue of raw materials supply represents a high - priority theme in the political agenda of the European Union. The Raw Materials Initiative launched in 2008 by the European Commission is based on three main pillars: - to ensure the access to raw materials on world market at undistorted conditions; - to foster sustainable supply of raw materials from European sources; - to reduce the EU's consumption of primary raw materials. (EC, 2008. To this end, EC has started to take action in order to ensure access to resources and avoid supply shortages. A great deal of attention is being paid to the study of recent developments in the global and particular commodity markets, taking into consideration fundamental aspects as supply concentration, governance of producing countries, the pressure of demand and its impact on prices, material's substitutability, stressing the role of resource consumption efficiency, recycling and substitution of vital raw materials and thus providing policy makers and industry with reliable information on how to efficiently manage resource inputs. This paper is dealing with the main developments which occurred during the past decade or so in the global commodity market, a major driver of the world economy, with particular reference to selected key -markets - as: aluminium, copper, nickel; cotton; corn, meat - swine

  9. Reflections on the reporting of the uranium spot price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Novak, E.D.

    1984-01-01

    Reporting of the Spot Uranium Price does not represent the uranium market, but actually represents the extremities of a market. The Spot Prices tend to cause instabilities in the market if relied upon too heavily and an excessive use will actually support a questionable transition from a fuel supply industry to a commodities industry. Utility fuel buyers and uranium sellers must be careful how they use the Spot Price, or they will continue to create an unstable supply/demand relationship. But, since we all rely upon statistics for the illusion of independence, we may get the commodities market, assisted along by the information people, whether we want it or not

  10. Essays on Derivatives Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kokholm, Thomas

    . With the existence of a liquid market for derivatives with variance as underlying, such as VIX options, VIX futures and a well-developed over-the-counter market for options on variance swaps, it is important to consider models that are able to fit these markets while consistently pricing vanilla options...... financial models, and most importantly, to be aware of their limitations. Following that belief, this thesis consists of three independent and self-contained papers, all dealing with topics in derivatives pricing. The first paper considers the pricing of traffic light options, which are appropriate...... the market for multivariate credit instruments, we take a step back and focus on single-name default modeling and introduce two new model classes for modeling of the default time of a company. Finally, in the third paper we propose a consistent pricing model for index and volatility derivatives...

  11. Petroleum price

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chevallier, B.

    2009-01-01

    The 'AFTP' conference on 'petroleum prices' organized by Total last March, tries to explain the different aspects of the crisis we undergo for July 2007 and its consequential effects on the petroleum markets (supply, demand evolvements, impacts on reserves, prices, refining...). (O.M.)

  12. Energies prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-08-01

    This document offers a synthesis of the tariffs and the energies prices in august 2005 in Paris, compared with the years 2003 and 2004. This sectoral presentation (transports, houses, industry) provides thus statistics on the prices of fuels, heating, propane, coal, wood fuels, electric power and gas. (A.L.B.)

  13. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohde, Carsten; Rossing, Christian Plesner

    trade internally as the units have to decide what prices should be paid for such inter-unit transfers. One important challenge is to uncover the consequences that different transfer prices have on the willingness in the organizational units to coordinate activities and trade internally. At the same time...

  14. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Bo

    2014-01-01

    Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE has...... a production subsidiary in one country, from where it sells the produced good locally as well as to a sales subsidiary in a second country. The latter subsidiary is engaged in duopolistic competition with a local competitor. The MNE has two aims in setting the transfer price: strategic delegation and tax...... minimization. We examine the extent to which the four transfer pricing regimes we set up allow the MNE to pursue these aims. While neither strategic delegation nor tax minimization will be eliminated, trade-offs are inevitable, albeit to varying degree....

  15. Transfer Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Søren Bo

    2014-01-01

    a production subsidiary in one country, from where it sells the produced good locally as well as to a sales subsidiary in a second country. The latter subsidiary is engaged in duopolistic competition with a local competitor. The MNE has two aims in setting the transfer price: strategic delegation and tax......Against a background of rather mixed evidence about transfer pricing practices in multinational enterprises (MNEs) and varying attitudes on the part of tax authorities, this paper explores how multiple aims in transfer pricing can be pursued across four different transfer pricing regimes. A MNE has...... minimization. We examine the extent to which the four transfer pricing regimes we set up allow the MNE to pursue these aims. While neither strategic delegation nor tax minimization will be eliminated, trade-offs are inevitable, albeit to varying degree....

  16. Aromatherapy Oils: Commodities, Materials, Essences

    OpenAIRE

    Barcan, Ruth

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the essential oils that are the central tools of aromatherapy and uses them as a case study for different approaches to material culture. It considers the conceptual and political implications of thinking of essential oils as, in turn, commodities, materials and essences. I argue that both cultural studies and aromatherapy have something to learn from each other. Classic materialist approaches might do well to focus more attention on the material properties and effects o...

  17. 7 CFR 1405.9 - Commodity assessments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity assessments. 1405.9 Section 1405.9 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT... Commodity assessments. (a) CCC will deduct from the proceeds of a marketing assistance loan an amount equal...

  18. 7 CFR 1401.4 - Commodity certificates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 10 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity certificates. 1401.4 Section 1401.4 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) COMMODITY CREDIT CORPORATION, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE GENERAL REGULATIONS AND POLICIES COMMODITY CERTIFICATES, IN KIND PAYMENTS, AND OTHER...

  19. 22 CFR 228.51 - Commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Commodities. 228.51 Section 228.51 Foreign Relations AGENCY FOR INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT RULES ON SOURCE, ORIGIN AND NATIONALITY FOR COMMODITIES AND SERVICES FINANCED BY USAID Waivers § 228.51 Commodities. (a) Waiver criteria. Any waiver must be based upon...

  20. 44 CFR 402.2 - Restricted commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Restricted commodities. 402.2... SHIPMENTS ON AMERICAN FLAG SHIPS AND AIRCRAFT (T-1, INT. 1) § 402.2 Restricted commodities. The restrictions of Transportation Order T-1 apply to the transportation or discharge of (a) commodities on the...

  1. 44 CFR 206.151 - Food commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 44 Emergency Management and Assistance 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Food commodities. 206.151... Food commodities. (a) The Administrator will assure that adequate stocks of food will be ready and... section, the Administrator may direct the Secretary of Agriculture to purchase food commodities in...

  2. Analysis of the Economic Potential for a Mercosur Rice Futures Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldemar Antonio da Rocha de Souza

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available World rice production reached 488.4 thousand tons, in 2012. Asian countries are the world’s largest rice producers, followed by Latinamerica, particularly Brazil, where rice is a basic food item. In spite of the clear economic benefits bestowed by commodity futures markets, neither Asia nor Mercosur have implemented a regional rice futures market. In sum, we propose to investigate the feasibility of a Brazilian rice futures contract to serve the Mercosur region by estimating Mercosur rice price dynamics and analyze basis risk and hedging effectiveness for rice market agents in the region, in a simulation framework using a hypothetical regional contract price. Sample data and period was non-probabilistic, for accessibility and convenience. Mercosur rice price dynamics expressed Argentina and Uruguay rice prices moving in synchrony. Brazil rice prices were on lower levels. Also, all three pairs of rice price series are cointegrated, with one cointegrating equation. Again, results can be largely attributed to the different price data used, in Brazil was rough rice, while in Uruguay and Argentina milled white rice with 5%. Despite that, there are preliminary evidences that a Mercosur rice futures market could be feasible.

  3. Gas prices and price process

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groenewegen, G.G.

    1992-01-01

    On a conference (Gas for Europe in the 1990's) during the Gasexpo '91 the author held a speech of which the Dutch text is presented here. Attention is paid to the current European pricing methods (prices based on the costs of buying, transporting and distributing the natural gas and prices based on the market value, which is deducted from the prices of alternative fuels), and the transparency of the prices (lack of information on the way the prices are determined). Also attention is paid to the market signal transparency and gas-gas competition, which means a more or less free market of gas distribution. The risks of gas-to-gas competition for a long term price stability, investment policies and security of supply are discussed. Opposition against the Third Party Access (TPA), which is the program to implement gas-to-gas competition, is caused by the fear of natural gas companies for lower gas prices and lower profits. Finally attention is paid to government regulation and the activities of the European Commission (EC) in this matter. 1 fig., 6 ills., 1 tab

  4. Financialization of food - The determinants of the time-varying relation between agricultural prices and stock market dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Girardi, Daniele

    2013-01-01

    This paper studies the correlation of agricultural prices with stock market dynamics. We discuss the possible role of financial, macroeconomic and monetary factors in driving this time-varying relation, with the aim of understanding what has caused positive correlation between agricultural commodities and stocks in recent years. While previous works on commodity-equity correlation have focused on broad commodity indices, we study 16 main agricultural prices, in order to be able to assess patt...

  5. Dynamical Models For Prices With Distributed Delays

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mircea Gabriela

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available In the present paper we study some models for the price dynamics of a single commodity market. The quantities of supplied and demanded are regarded as a function of time. Nonlinearities in both supply and demand functions are considered. The inventory and the level of inventory are taken into consideration. Due to the fact that the consumer behavior affects commodity demand, and the behavior is influenced not only by the instantaneous price, but also by the weighted past prices, the distributed time delay is introduced. The following kernels are taken into consideration: demand price weak kernel and demand price Dirac kernel. Only one positive equilibrium point is found and its stability analysis is presented. When the demand price kernel is weak, under some conditions of the parameters, the equilibrium point is locally asymptotically stable. When the demand price kernel is Dirac, the existence of the local oscillations is investigated. A change in local stability of the equilibrium point, from stable to unstable, implies a Hopf bifurcation. A family of periodic orbits bifurcates from the positive equilibrium point when the time delay passes through a critical value. The last part contains some numerical simulations to illustrate the effectiveness of our results and conclusions.

  6. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2006-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced, as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  7. Price increase

    CERN Multimedia

    2005-01-01

    Please take note that after five years of stable prices at Restaurant No 1 a price increase will come into force on 1st January 2006. This increase has been agreed after discussions between the CSR (Comité de Surveillance des Restaurants) and the catering company Novae and will reflect the inflation rate of the last few years. In addition, a new children's menu will be introduced as well as 'Max Havelaar' fair-trade coffee at a price of 1.70 CHF.

  8. Determinants of food price inflation in Finland—The role of energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Irz, Xavier; Niemi, Jyrki; Liu, Xing

    2013-01-01

    The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006–2008 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets, such as the energy market. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a cointegration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation are dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock. - Highlights: • We investigate the dynamics of food price formation in Finland. • We establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices of food, energy, agricultural commodities, and wages. • Energy price plays a significant but limited role in determining the equilibrium level of food prices

  9. Housing Price Forecastability

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bork, Lasse; Møller, Stig Vinther

    2016-01-01

    We examine U.S. housing price forecastability using principal component analysis (PCA), partial least squares (PLS), and sparse PLS (SPLS). We incorporate information from a large panel of 128 economic time series and show that macroeconomic fundamentals have strong predictive power for future mo...

  10. 2050: A Pricing Odyssey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faruqui, Ahmad

    2006-10-15

    The author uses the Rip Van Winkle approach favored by marketers to gaze, clear-eyed, into the future - say, the year 2050 - to visualize alternative demand-response possibilities. Dare we go California Dreamin' of a distant utopia - or is it inevitable that pricing myopia will keep us from attaining the fulfillment of many of our career goals? (author)

  11. Freemium Pricing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Runge, Julian; Wagner, Stefan; Claussen, Jörg

    Firms commonly run field experiments to improve their freemium pricing schemes. However, they often lack a framework for analysis that goes beyond directly measurable outcomes and focuses on longer term profit. We aim to fill this gap by structuring existing knowledge on freemium pricing...... into a stylized framework. We apply the proposed framework in the analysis of a field experiment that contrasts three variations of a freemium pricing scheme and comprises about 300,000 users of a software application. Our findings indicate that a reduction of free product features increases conversion as well...... as viral activity, but reduces usage – which is in line with the framework’s predictions. Additional back-of-the-envelope profit estimations suggest that managers were overly optimistic about positive externalities from usage and viral activity in their choice of pricing scheme, leading them to give too...

  12. Oil price reduction impacts on the Iranian economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdollah Mahmoodi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available economy. In order to simulate this shock, the global trade analysis project (GTAP model with its data done by using. In the new created data aggregation, oil exporting in Iran and the rest of the world countries as economic new regions, ten new economic sectors have been created, among which the oil is introduced as one sector as well as five endowments. The standard economic closure was changed, and decline in world oil price was simulated in model as a policy shock. The results show that oil export revenue and the mineral commodity export earnings will decrease, but other production sectors’ exports will increase. The trade balance of Iran will be affected negatively and strongly. Also, oil and other services production decreased. In the production sectors’ market, the demand for labor, natural resources, and investment decreased dramatically, and the demand for land increased. Using equivalent variation (EV, changes in Iran’s welfare is high negative. Finally, deflation, reduction in value and quantity of GDP and changes in consumption combination from public to private sector are the other economic impacts of reduction in oil price on Iran’s economic. It is suggested that future studies are done using dynamic models and up-to-date data. In addition, policy makers need to rebound internationally and within OPEC to raise oil prices.

  13. Futures and forward contract as a route of hedging the risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Misbahul Islam

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In the present highly uncertain business scenario, the importance of risk management is much greater than ever before. Variations in the prices of agricultural and non-agricultural commodities are induced, over time, by demand-supply dynamics. The last two decades have witnessed many-fold increase in the volume of international trade and business due to the wave of globalization and liberalization sweeping across the world. This has led to rapid and unpredictable variations in financial assets prices, interest rates and exchange rates, and subsequently, to exposing the corporate world to an unwieldy financial risk. As a result, financial markets have experienced rapid variations in interest and exchange rates, stock market prices thus exposing the corporate world to a state of growing financial risk. The emergence of derivatives market is an ingenious feat of financial engineering that provides an effective and less costly solution to the problem of risk that is embedded in the price unpredictability of the underlying asset. Derivatives provide an effective solution to the problem of risk caused by uncertainty and volatility in underlying assets. These are the financial instruments that are linked to a specific financial instrument or indicator or commodity and through which specific risks can be traded in financial markets in their own right. In actual practice there are various different types of derivatives but this paper emphasizes on the two most important types of derivatives i.e. futures and forward contracts. These two are the most commonly used types of derivatives in financial markets. We can hedge the risk of price variations in stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, interest rates, market indices etc. This study is about the futures and forward contracts. This paper presents various types of futures and forward contract and what advantages and disadvantages these two important types of derivatives have? It also includes that how

  14. Spikes and memory in (Nord Pool) electricity price spot prices

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Proietti, Tomasso; Haldrup, Niels; Knapik, Oskar

    from the normal price, where the latter is defined as the expectation arising from a model accounting for long memory at the zero and at the weekly seasonal frequencies, given the knowledge of the past realizations. Hence, a spike is associated to a time series innovation with size larger than......Electricity spot prices are subject to transitory sharp movements commonly referred to as spikes. The paper aims at assessing their effects on model based inferences and predictions, with reference to the Nord Pool power exchange. We identify a spike as a price value which deviates substantially...... a specified threshold. The latter regulates the robustness of the estimates of the underlying price level and it is chosen by a data driven procedure that focuses on the ability to predict future prices. The normal price is computed by a modified Kalman filter, which robustifies the inferences by cleaning...

  15. Futurism.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Jane Loring

    The objectives of this research report are to gain insight into the main problems of the future and to ascertain the attitudes that the general population has toward the treatment of these problems. In the first section of this report the future is explored socially, psychologically, and environmentally. The second section describes the techniques…

  16. Disaggregated Futures-Only Commitments of Traders

    Data.gov (United States)

    Commodity Futures Trading Commission — The Disaggregated Futures-Only Commitments of Traders dataset provides a breakdown of each week's open interest for agriculture, energy, metals, lumber, and...

  17. Disaggregated Futures and Options Commitments of Traders

    Data.gov (United States)

    Commodity Futures Trading Commission — The Disaggregated Futures and Options Commitments of Traders dataset provides a breakdown of each week's open interest for agriculture, energy, metals, lumber, and...

  18. Manufacturing process design for multi commodities in agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prasetyawan, Yudha; Santosa, Andrian Henry

    2017-06-01

    High-potential commodities within particular agricultural sectors should be accompanied by maximum benefit value that can be attained by both local farmers and business players. In several cases, the business players are small-medium enterprises (SMEs) which have limited resources to perform added value process of the local commodities into the potential products. The weaknesses of SMEs such as the manual production process with low productivity, limited capacity to maintain prices, and unattractive packaging due to conventional production. Agricultural commodity is commonly created into several products such as flour, chips, crackers, oil, juice, and other products. This research was initiated by collecting data by interview method particularly to obtain the perspectives of SMEs as the business players. Subsequently, the information was processed based on the Quality Function Deployment (QFD) to determine House of Quality from the first to fourth level. A proposed design as the result of QFD was produced and evaluated with Technology Assessment Model (TAM) and continued with a revised design. Finally, the revised design was analyzed with financial perspective to obtain the cost structure of investment, operational, maintenance, and workers. The machine that performs manufacturing process, as the result of revised design, was prototyped and tested to determined initial production process. The designed manufacturing process offers IDR 337,897, 651 of Net Present Value (NPV) in comparison with the existing process value of IDR 9,491,522 based on similar production input.

  19. Stock market price prediction using artificial neural network: an ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper looks at the application of the artificial neural networks (ANN) in predicting stock market prices in Kenya. In particular the paper looks at the application of ANN in predicting future Equity Bank share prices using historical data. We have assumed that only previous prices affect future prices, then fitted ARIMA ...

  20. Cross-commodity delay discounting of alcohol and money in alcohol users.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moody, Lara N; Tegge, Allison N; Bickel, Warren K

    2017-06-01

    Despite real-world implications, the pattern of delay discounting in alcohol users when the commodities now and later differ has not been well characterized. In this study, 60 participants on Amazon's Mechanical Turk completed the Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) to assess severity of use and completed four delay discounting tasks between hypothetical, equivalent amounts of alcohol and money available at five delays. The tasks included two cross-commodity (alcohol now-money later and money now-alcohol later) and two same-commodity (money now-money later and alcohol now-alcohol later) conditions. Delay discounting was significantly associated with clinical cutoffs of the AUDIT for both of the cross-commodity conditions but not for either of the same-commodity delay discounting tasks. The cross-commodity discounting conditions were related to severity of use wherein heavy users discounted future alcohol less and future money more. The change in direction of the discounting effect was dependent on the commodity that was distally available suggesting a distinctive pattern of discounting across commodities when comparing light and heavy alcohol users.

  1. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dennis Bergmann

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dairy commodity prices become more volatile. Global production of palm oil almost doubled over the last decade while butter production remained relatively flat. Palm oil also serves as a feedstock for biodiesel production, thus establishing a new link between agricultural commodities and crude oil. Price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices, as well as between butter, palm oil and crude oil prices, before and after the Luxembourg agreement, are analysed. Vector autoregression (VAR models are applied to capture price transmission effects between these markets. These are combined with a multivariate GARCH model to account for potential volatility transmission. Results indicate strong price and volatility transmission effects between EU and World butter prices. EU butter shocks further spillover to palm oil volatility. In addition, there is evidence that oil prices spillover to World butter prices and World butter volatility.

  2. Meeting competition through negotiated pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keith, D.M.; Raper, J.W.

    1990-01-01

    A fundamental premise of negotiated pricing as a demand-side management (DSM) tool is that price determines cost. As the ultimate objective of energy efficiency is to increase electromotive work while conserving resources, negotiated prices can have a significant impact as a DSM tool to force costs down. Three examples are offered of the effect of negotiated pricing as a DSM tool. The examples are a small hydroelectric company and an electric utility authority owned, a utility-to-customer example of negotiated pricing with the Public Service Company of Oklahoma's (PSO) system, and a large paper mill on PSO's system. Some of the major problems associated with negotiated pricing, outside of the human effort of finding and training knowledgeable and skilled negotiators, are: obtaining enough information about the customer or potential customer to be able to determine that in negotiating prices the utility is not giving away more benefits than the utility will gain; developing a pricing plan that fits both the customer's and utility's existing and potential future mode of operation; assuring that other customers who cannot negotiate on their own behalf are not adversely affected by utility revenue shortfalls; making such negotiated prices available to all similarly situated customers, so as not to inadvertently create unfair competitive advantages among them; and defining the shared benefits before and after the fact as a result of having negotiated prices in the first place

  3. Survey of Alternative Feedstocks for Commodity Chemical Manufacturing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McFarlane, Joanna [ORNL; Robinson, Sharon M [ORNL

    2008-02-01

    The current high prices for petroleum and natural gas have spurred the chemical industry to examine alternative feedstocks for the production of commodity chemicals. High feedstock prices have driven methanol and ammonia production offshore. The U.S. Chemical Industry is the largest user of natural gas in the country. Over the last 30 years, alternatives to conventional petroleum and natural gas feedstocks have been developed, but have limited, if any, commercial implementation in the United States. Alternative feedstocks under consideration include coal from unconventional processing technologies, such as gasification and liquefaction, novel resources such as biomass, stranded natural gas from unconventional reserves, and heavy oil from tar sands or oil shale. These feedstock sources have been evaluated with respect to the feasibility and readiness for production of the highest volume commodity chemicals in the United States. Sources of organic compounds, such as ethanol from sugar fermentation and bitumen-derived heavy crude are now being primarily exploited for fuels, rather than for chemical feedstocks. Overall, government-sponsored research into the use of alternatives to petroleum feedstocks focuses on use for power and transportation fuels rather than for chemical feedstocks. Research is needed to reduce cost and technical risk. Use of alternative feedstocks is more common outside the United States R&D efforts are needed to make these processes more efficient and less risky before becoming more common domestically. The status of alternative feedstock technology is summarized.

  4. Vertical price transmission in the Danish food chain

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær

    2005-01-01

    are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand stage...... considered? These questions are analysed theoretically and empirically using econometric analysis. 6 food chains are investigated: pork, chicken, eggs, milk, sugar and apples. Preliminary empirical results suggest that for most commodities, price transmission tends to be upward asymmetric, i.e. stronger...... sectors and stages of the food supply chain. Both transaction costs and imperfect competition seem to contribute to these asymmetries....

  5. Marketplace pricing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1991-01-01

    As discussed in this chapter, interest in marketplace pricing has been increasing in recent years, reflecting the societal trend toward substituting competition for regulation where appropriate. Competition is valuable because it encourages utilities to make efficient decisions with a minimum of regulatory intervention. It enhances efficiency through the incentive for innovation by the regulated companies and by increasing the likelihood they will come forward with proposals for better services, lower prices or both. Ultimately, consumers are beneficiaries. Marketplace pricing is emblematic of the view that the degree of regulation should reflect the degree of market power, that workably competitive markets should be allowed to operate with as little regulatory interference as possible. The Edison Electric Institute has made perhaps the most detailed proposal on marketplace pricing. It and others perceive numerous benefits from this method of pricing transmission services. Given the undeniable market power resulting from line ownership, FERC has emphasized the need to find a workably competitive market before approving such proposals. The ability to make this distinction without a full-blown antitrust review for every transaction is questionable, and FERC has yet to provide generic guidance. Finally, FERC's legal ability to depart from cost-based standards is questionable

  6. Will Commodity Properties Affect Seller's Creditworthy: Evidence in C2C E-commerce Market in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, Hui; Ling, Min

    This paper finds out that the credit rating level shows significant difference among different sub-commodity markets in E-commerce, which provides room for sellers to get higher credit rating by entering businesses with higher average credit level before fraud. In order to study the influence of commodity properties on credit rating, this paper analyzes how commodity properties affect average crediting rating through the degree of information asymmetry, returns and costs of fraud, credibility perception and fraud tolerance. Empirical study shows that Delivery, average trading volume, average price and complaint possibility have decisive impacts on credit performance; brand market share, the degree of standardization and the degree of imitation also have a relatively less significant effect on credit rating. Finally, this paper suggests that important commodity properties should be introduced to modify reputation system, for preventing credit rating arbitrage behavior where sellers move into low-rating commodity after being assigned high credit rating.

  7. The estimation of risk-premium implicit in oil prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luis, J.B.

    2001-01-01

    The futures price can be seen as the sum of the expected value of the underlying asset price and a risk-premium. In order to disentangle these two components of the futures price, one can try to model the relationship between spot and futures prices, in order to obtain a closed expression for the risk-premium, or to use information from spot and option prices to estimate risk-aversion functions. Given the high volatility of the ratios between futures and spot prices, we opted for the latter, estimating risk-neutral and subjective probability density functions, respectively, from observed option and spot prices. looking at the prices of Brent and West Texas Intermediate light/sweet crude oil options, the obtained evidence suggests that risk-aversion is typically very low for levels near the futures prices. However, due to price volatility and, consequently, to the tails of distribution, the risk-aversion functions are badly behaved in extreme prices and futures prices do not anticipate sharp movements in oil spot prices. Therefore, futures oil prices seem to be useful in forecasting spot prices only when moderate price changes occur. (author)

  8. Space-time modeling of timber prices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

    2006-01-01

    A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

  9. Does oil price uncertainty affect energy use?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuper, G.H.; van Soest, D.P.

    2006-01-01

    Theory predicts that the presence of fixed costs implies that the relationship between energy use and energy price changes is asymmetric, as the firm's output and investment decisions respond differently to energy price increases and decreases. The asymmetry is exacerbated if future energy prices

  10. Global stocks of selected mineral-based commodities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilburn, David R.; Bleiwas, Donald I.; Karl, Nick A.

    2016-12-05

    IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey, National Minerals Information Center, analyzes mineral and metal supply chains by identifying and describing major components of mineral and material flows from ore extraction, through intermediate forms, to a final product. This report focuses on an important component of the world’s supply chain: the amounts and global distribution of major consumer, producer, and exchange stocks of selected mineral commodities. In this report, the term “stock” is used instead of “inventory” and refers to accumulations of mined ore, intermediate products, and refined mineral-based commodities that are in a form that meets the agreed-upon specifications of a buyer or processor of intermediate products. These may include certain ores such as bauxite, concentrates, smelter products, and refined metals. Materials sometimes referred to as inventory for accounting purposes, such as ore contained in a deposit or in a leach pile, or materials that need to be further processed before they can be shipped to a consumer, are not considered. Stocks may be held (owned) by consumers, governments, investors, producers, and traders. They may serve as (1) a means to achieve economic, social, and strategic goals through government policies; (2) a secure source of supply to meet demand and to mitigate potential shortages in the supply chain; (3) a hedge to mitigate price volatility; and (4) vehicles for speculative investment.The paucity and uneven reliability of data for stocks of ores and concentrates and for material held by producers, consumers, and merchants hinder the accurate estimating of the size and distribution of this portion of the supply chain for certain commodities. This paper reviews the more visible stocks held in commodity exchange warehouses distributed throughout the world.

  11. Insect pollination: commodity values, trade and policy considerations using coffee as an example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vernon George Thomas

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Science has shown the importance of animal pollinators to human food security, economy, and biodiversity conservation. Science continues to identify various factors causing pollinator declines and their implications. However, translation of the understanding of pollinators’ roles into current policy and regulation is weak and requires attention, both in developed and developing nations. The national and international trade of commodities generated via insect pollination is large. Trade in those crops could be a means of influencing regulations to promote the local existence of pollinating species, apart from their contributions to biodiversity conservation. This paper, using the example of international coffee production, reviews the value of pollinating species, and relates them to simple economics of commodity production. Recommendations are made that could influence policy and decision-making to promote coffee production, trade, and pollinators’ existence. Assumptions and considerations are raised and addressed. Although the role of insect pollinators in promoting fruit set and quality is accepted, implementing pollination conservation in forest habitats may require assured higher prices for coffee, and direct subsidies for forest conservation to prevent conversion to other crop lands. Exporting and importing governments and trade organizations could establish policy that requires insect pollination in the coffee certification process. The European Parliament and the North American Free Trade Agreement could be instrumental in creating policy and regulation that promotes insect pollination services in coffee production. The reciprocity between the services of insect pollinators in certified coffee production and their services in forest biodiversity production should be implicit in future policy negotiations to enhance both systems.

  12. Stock price prediction using geometric Brownian motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farida Agustini, W.; Restu Affianti, Ika; Putri, Endah RM

    2018-03-01

    Geometric Brownian motion is a mathematical model for predicting the future price of stock. The phase that done before stock price prediction is determine stock expected price formulation and determine the confidence level of 95%. On stock price prediction using geometric Brownian Motion model, the algorithm starts from calculating the value of return, followed by estimating value of volatility and drift, obtain the stock price forecast, calculating the forecast MAPE, calculating the stock expected price and calculating the confidence level of 95%. Based on the research, the output analysis shows that geometric Brownian motion model is the prediction technique with high rate of accuracy. It is proven with forecast MAPE value ≤ 20%.

  13. 17 CFR 16.01 - Trading volume, open contracts, prices, and critical dates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... day the following information separately for futures by commodity and by future, and, for options, by underlying futures contract for options on futures contracts or by underlying physical for options on...; (5) The total volume of futures exchanged for commodities or for derivatives positions which are...

  14. Henry Hub and national balancing point prices: what will be the international gas price reference?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazighi, A.E.H.

    2005-01-01

    One of the lessons in the history of international trade in commodities is the emergence - sooner or later - of an international price reference, most commonly known as an international marker price. In the area of oil, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) plays the role of a marker for sour crudes traded in the Atlantic basin. Brent oil fulfils this function for sweet crudes traded in Europe. Another important aspect in the area of global commodities is that the emergence of a marker price is not always necessarily related to the relative share of production of exports of the commodity, but primarily to the existence of an organized market for this commodity. Today, while international gas trade is intensifying, we still lack an international price reference for this commodity. This is due to the fact that the international trade of natural gas is still highly regionalized. It is also due to the fact that most gas markets are still regulated. Nevertheless, deregulation efforts have been implemented in both developed (the United States, the United Kingdom, continental Europe, Korea) and developing countries (Brazil, Chile) and have led to new market structures based on more competition in all segments of the gas chain, except transportation. In the meantime, price structures based on supply and demand principles are supposed to have emerged in the US and UK markets in the 1990s as a result of the implementation of deregulation measures. Today, the US gas market, which represents more than 660 billion cubic metres per year of consumption and the UK gas market, which is close to 100 bcm annually, are considered mature enough to make the principles of supply and demand operate inside these markets. In fact, the Henry Hub (HH) price, which is determined at a physical location in Louisiana, US, and the national balancing point (NBP) price, which is determined somewhere inside the national transmission system (NTS), without any precise location, are considered as potential

  15. Energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-08-01

    This document gives in a series of tables, a synthesis of the main energy tariffs and prices in use in France and their evolution during the 2000-2002 era both in the residential and in the industry sectors: automotive fuels, domestic fuel oil, steam for district heating, propane, coal, wood, electricity, gas, heavy fuel oil. (J.S.)

  16. Energy prices

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    This folder gives a synthesis of the main energy tariffs and prices ruling in France in 2000, 2001 and 2002 for automotive fuels, domestic fuel oil, district heating steam, propane, coal, wood, electricity, natural gas and heavy fuel, both for accommodations and for the industry. (J.S.)

  17. Pricing the (European) option to switch between two energy sources: An application to crude oil and natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gatfaoui, Hayette

    2015-01-01

    We consider a firm, which can choose between crude oil and natural gas to run its business. The firm selects the energy source, which minimizes its energy or production costs at a given time horizon. Assuming the energy strategy to be established over a fixed time window, the energy choice decision will be made at a given future date T. In this light, the firm's energy cost can be considered as a long position in a risk-free bond by an amount of the terminal oil price, and a short position in a European put option to switch from oil to gas by an amount of the terminal oil price too. As a result, the option to switch from crude oil to natural gas allows for establishing a hedging strategy with respect to energy costs. Modeling stochastically the underlying asset of the European put, we propose a valuation formula of the option to switch and calibrate the pricing formula to empirical data on a daily basis. Hence, our innovative framework handles widely the hedge against the price increase of any given energy source versus the price of another competing energy source (i.e. minimizing energy costs). Moreover, we provide a price for the cost-reducing effect of the capability to switch from one energy source to another one (i.e. hedging energy price risk). - Highlights: • We consider a firm, which chooses either crude oil or natural gas as an energy source. • The capability to switch offers the firm a hedge against energy commodity price risk. • A European put option prices the ability to switch from crude oil to natural gas. • The capability to switch between two energy sources reduces the firm's energy costs. • The discount illustrates the efficiency of the energy management policy (e.g. timing).

  18. The Pricing of natural gas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nese, Gjermund

    2004-11-01

    The report focuses on the pricing of natural gas. The motivation has been the wish of the Norwegian authorities to increase the use of natural gas and that this should follow market conditions. The pricing of gas occurs at present in various ways in the different markets. The report identifies to main factors behind the pricing. 1) The type of market i.e. how far the liberalization of the gas markets has gone in the various countries. 2) The development within the regulation, climate and tax policies. The gas markets are undergoing as the energy markets in general, a liberalization process where the traditional monopoly based market structures are replaced by markets based on competition. There are great differences in the liberalization development of the various countries, which is reflected in the various pricing principles applied for the trade of gas in the countries. The analysis shows that the net-back-pricing is predominant in some countries i.e. that the price is in various ways indexed towards and follow the development of the price of alternative energy carriers so that the gas may be able to compete. The development towards trade places for gas where the pricing is based on offer and demand is already underway. As the liberalization of the European gas markets progresses it is expected that the gas price will be determined increasingly at spot markets instead of through bilateral agreements between monopolistic corporations. The development within the regulation, climate and tax policies and to what extent this may influence the gas prices in the future, are also studied. There seem to be effects that may pull in both directions but it is evident that these political variables will influence the gas pricing in the international market to a large extent and thereby also the future internal natural gas market

  19. The impacts of global oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Xiao; Zhang, Chuanguo

    2014-01-01

    This paper investigated the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. In order to analyze the reactions of different industries to oil price shocks, we focused on four fundamental industries: grains, metals, petrochemicals and oil fats. We separated the oil price shocks into two parts, positive and negative parts, to investigate how commodity markets react when oil prices go up and down. We further studied the extreme price movements, called jumps, existing in the oil markets and how jump behavior has affected China's commodity markets. Our results suggest that asymmetric effects of oil price shocks did exist in the four markets and the negative oil price shocks had stronger influences on the four markets in China. The petrochemicals market suffered most from the oil price shocks, and the grains market was least sensitive to the shocks. When jumps occurred in the crude oil market, the four commodity markets would be affected differently. The oil fats market and petrochemicals market tended to “overreact” to jumps. - Highlights: • We investigate the impacts of oil price shocks on China's fundamental industries. • Jump behavior does exist in the crude oil market. • The impacts of oil price shocks are asymmetric. • China's four commodity markets are affected by the jump behavior

  20. Modeling hourly Electricity Spot Market Prices as non stationary functional times series

    OpenAIRE

    Liebl, Dominik

    2010-01-01

    The instantaneous nature of electricity distinguishes its spot prices from spot prices for equities and other commodities. Up to now electricity cannot be stored economically and therefore demand for electricity has an untempered effect on electricity prices. In particular, hourly electricity spot prices show a vast range of dynamics which can change rapidly. In this paper we introduce a robust version of functional principal component analysis for sparse data. The functional perspective inte...

  1. An analysis of price and volatility transmission in butter, palm oil and crude oil markets

    OpenAIRE

    Dennis Bergmann; Declan O’Connor; Andreas Thümmel

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Recent changes to the common agricultural policy (CAP) saw a shift to greater market orientation for the EU dairy industry. Given this reorientation, the volatility of EU dairy commodity prices has sharply increased, creating the need to develop proper risk management tools to protect farmers’ income and to ensure stable prices for processors and consumers. In addition, there is a perceived threat that these commodities may be replaced by cheaper substitutes, such as palm oil, as dai...

  2. Access price regulation facilitates strategic transfer pricing

    OpenAIRE

    Fjell, Kenneth; Foros, Øystein

    2005-01-01

    Access price regulation is used in telecommunications to prevent that a vertically integrated firm, that controls an essential input, raises the rivals` costs. When the authorities remove the access price as a strategic tool, they at the same time make it optimal for the vertically integrated firm to reorganize from centralized pricing to decentralized pricing in order to use the transfer price as an alternative strategic device. To implement access price regulation, authorities use accountin...

  3. Marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies

    OpenAIRE

    Levaggi, Rosella; Orizio, Grazia; Domenighini, Serena; Bressanelli, Maura; Schulz, Peter J.; Zani, Claudia; Caimi, Luigi; Gelatti, Umberto

    2011-01-01

    Internet and e-commerce have profoundly changed society, the economy, and the world of health care. The web offers opportunities to improve health, but it may also represent a big health hazard since it is a basically unregulated market with very low consumer protection. In this paper we analyze marketing and pricing strategies of online pharmacies (OPs). Our analysis shows that OPs use strategies that would be more suitable for a commodity market than for drugs. These strategies differenti...

  4. 17 CFR 229.201 - (Item 201) Market price of and dividends on the registrant's common equity and related...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... common equity is an exchange, state the high and low sales prices for the equity for each full quarterly... registrant may translate such prices into United States currency at the currency exchange rate in effect on... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false (Item 201) Market price of and...

  5. Imperfect price-reversibility of US gasoline demand: Asymmetric responses to price increases and declines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gately, D.

    1992-01-01

    This paper describes a framework for analyzing the imperfect price-reversibility (hysteresis) of oil demand. The oil demand reductions following the oil price increases of the 1970s will not be completely reversed by the price cuts of the 1980s, nor is it necessarily true that these partial demand reversals themselves will be reversed exactly by future price increases. The author decomposes price into three monotonic series: price increases to maximum historic levels, price cuts, and price recoveries (increases below historic highs). He would expect that the response to price cuts would be no greater than to price recoveries, which in turn would be no greater than for increases in maximum historic price. For evidence of imperfect price-reversibility, he tests econometrically the following US data: vehicle miles per driver, the fuel efficiency of the automobile fleet, and gasoline demand per driver. In each case, the econometric results allow him to reject the hypothesis of perfect price-reversibility. The data show smaller response to price cuts than to price increases. This has dramatic implications for projections of gasoline and oil demand, especially under low-price assumptions. 26 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs

  6. Scientific Research: Commodities or Commons?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vermeir, Koen

    2013-10-01

    Truth is for sale today, some critics claim. The increased commodification of science corrupts it, scientific fraud is rampant and the age-old trust in science is shattered. This cynical view, although gaining in prominence, does not explain very well the surprising motivation and integrity that is still central to the scientific life. Although scientific knowledge becomes more and more treated as a commodity or as a product that is for sale, a central part of academic scientific practice is still organized according to different principles. In this paper, I critically analyze alternative models for understanding the organization of knowledge, such as the idea of the scientific commons and the gift economy of science. After weighing the diverse positive and negative aspects of free market economies of science and gift economies of science, a commons structured as a gift economy seems best suited to preserve and take advantage of the specific character of scientific knowledge. Furthermore, commons and gift economies promote the rich social texture that is important for supporting central norms of science. Some of these basic norms might break down if the gift character of science is lost. To conclude, I consider the possibility and desirability of hybrid economies of academic science, which combine aspects of gift economies and free market economies. The aim of this paper is to gain a better understanding of these deeper structural challenges faced by science policy. Such theoretical reflections should eventually assist us in formulating new policy guidelines.

  7. FUTURES

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Michael Haldrup

    2017-01-01

    Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores the potenti......Currently both design thinking and critical social science experience an increased interest in speculating in alternative future scenarios. This interest is not least related to the challenges issues of global sustainability present for politics, ethics and design. This paper explores...... the potentials of speculative thinking in relation to design and social and cultural studies, arguing that both offer valuable insights for creating a speculative space for new emergent criticalities challenging current assumptions of the relations between power and design. It does so by tracing out discussions...... of ‘futurity’ and ‘futuring’ in design as well as social and cultural studies. Firstly, by discussing futurist and speculative approaches in design thinking; secondly by engaging with ideas of scenario thinking and utopianism in current social and cultural studies; and thirdly by showing how the articulation...

  8. Hedging with futures contracts in the Brazilian soybean complex: BM&F vs. CBOT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andréia Regina O. da Silva

    2003-06-01

    Full Text Available This article analyzes the effectiveness of hedging Brazilian soy oil, soy meal, and soybeans in the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT and in the Brazilian Commodities and Futures Exchange (BM&F to reduce the risk of financial loss due to commodity price fluctuations. The econometric results show that a cross-hedging strategy using the BM&F soybean futures contract is an instrument of low effectiveness for managing soy oil and soy meal price risk. Despite low effectiveness, the estimates demonstrate total advantage for soy meal hedging operations using CBOT soy meal futures contracts rather than cross-hedging using BM&F soybean futures contracts. With some exceptions, the results are also more favorable for hedging soy oil with soy oil futures contracts at the CBOT rather than cross hedging with soybeans at the BM&F. Conversely, Brazilian traders hedging soybeans receive more effective risk protection by trading soybean futures contracts at the BM&F than by trading soybean futures contracts at the CBOT.

  9. PRICE RISK MANAGEMENT FOR PEANUT MEAL

    OpenAIRE

    Costa, Ecio de Farias; Turner, Steven C.

    2001-01-01

    Peanut meal is cross-hedged with soybean meal using peanut meal cash prices and soybean meal futures prices. Hedge rations are obtained for short- vs. long-term data sets. Evaluation indicates positive gains for cross-hedged poultry/peanut producers, and that soybean meal futures can be used as a cross-hedging vehicle for peanut meal.

  10. Real Time Business Analytics for Buying or Selling Transaction on Commodity Warehouse Receipt System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djatna, Taufik; Teniwut, Wellem A.; Hairiyah, Nina; Marimin

    2017-10-01

    The requirement for smooth information such as buying and selling is essential for commodity warehouse receipt system such as dried seaweed and their stakeholders to transact for an operational transaction. Transactions of buying or selling a commodity warehouse receipt system are a risky process due to the fluctuations in dynamic commodity prices. An integrated system to determine the condition of the real time was needed to make a decision-making transaction by the owner or prospective buyer. The primary motivation of this study is to propose computational methods to trace market tendency for either buying or selling processes. The empirical results reveal that feature selection gain ratio and k-NN outperforms other forecasting models, implying that the proposed approach is a promising alternative to the stock market tendency of warehouse receipt document exploration with accurate level rate is 95.03%.

  11. Space and commodity-based society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gvozden Vladimir

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The space is privileged in the commodity-based society. It is well known that the economic space in the 19th and 20th centuries rapidly managed to subordinate all other areas 'conveying and instilling in them their own meanings and goals' (G. Milatović. A new form of space that qualifies commodity society was created, marked by dualities: openness-closeness, private-public, sameness-difference. This paper is an attempt to criticize the usual analysis of the categories of commodity-space, linked to the ambivalent role of the state as a guarantor of the functioning of the commodity-based society, as well as its controlling instance. The increasing delocalisation of the political changes the nature of the space in the commodity-based society. Privileged areas are produced that create an illusion of protection of consumers (shopping malls, gated communities, theme parks, video surveillance, while at the same time social differentiation and identification are produced through the symbolic order of commodities and a sense of inclusion or exclusion from that order. At the same time, the examples of tourism and selling places demonstrate that such a commodity-space unusually easy reconciles sameness and difference. It entails uniformity to help achieve the fluctuation of goods, while insisting on the local as different, especially in terms of the role of particularity in the global trade.

  12. Sorption of sulfuryl fluoride by food commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriranjini, Venkata-rao; Rajendran, Somiahnadar

    2008-08-01

    The use of sulfuryl fluoride, a structural fumigant for termite and woodborer control, has recently been expanded to treating stored food commodities and food facilities. There is, however, a lack of data on the sorption of sulfuryl fluoride by food commodities. Knowledge about sorption is important in the context of effective treatment and residues. When sulfuryl fluoride was applied at a dose of 50 g m(-3) to various food commodities (total 68) with 300 g per replicate in 0.75 L gas wash bottles (fumigation chambers) at 25 +/- 1 degrees C, in most cases (81%) the gas concentrations in the free space of the commodities exceeded 50 g m(-3) (range 51-80 g m(-3)) at the end of 24 h exposure. In chambers without the substrate, an average concentration of 49.7 g m(-3) was recorded. About 54% of the commodities showed low-level ( 50%). The latter include white oats (terminal gas concentration 17.8 g m(-3)), some of the decorticated split pulses (24.0-29.3 g m(-3)), chickpea flour (26.3 g m(-3)), dried ginger (29.0 g m(-3)), refined wheat flour (30.3 g m(-3)) and coriander powder (40.5 g m(-3)). In unfumigated control commodities, owing to interfering volatiles, Fumiscope readings in the range 0-13 were noted. Sulfuryl fluoride has the advantage of a low or moderate level of sorption with the majority of the food commodities.

  13. The Price-Anderson Act

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, R.

    2000-01-01

    The Price-Anderson Act establishes nuclear liability law in the United States. First passed in 1957, it has influenced other nuclear liability legislation around the world. The insurer response the nuclear accident at Three Mile Island in 1979 demonstrates the application of the Act in a real life situation. The Price-Anderson Act is scheduled to be renewed in 2002, and the future use of commercial nuclear power in tge United States will be influenced by this renewal. (author)

  14. New series for agricultural prices in London, 1770–1914.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solar, Peter M; Klovland, Jan Tore

    2011-01-01

    New annual series for the prices of major agricultural commodities sold in London markets between 1770 and 1914 are presented. These series are based on bimonthly observations drawn from newspaper market reports. The products covered are wheat, barley (grinding and malting), oats, potatoes, hay, butter, beef, mutton, and pork. Annual prices are calculated for both calendar and production years. The new series are compared to existing series.

  15. HESTIA Commodities Exchange Pallet and Sounding Rocket Test Stand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaparro, Javier

    2013-01-01

    During my Spring 2016 internship, my two major contributions were the design of the Commodities Exchange Pallet and the design of a test stand for a 100 pounds-thrust sounding rocket. The Commodities Exchange Pallet is a prototype developed for the Human Exploration Spacecraft Testbed for Integration and Advancement (HESTIA) program. Under the HESTIA initiative the Commodities Exchange Pallet was developed as a method for demonstrating multi-system integration thru the transportation of In-Situ Resource Utilization produced oxygen and water to a human habitat. Ultimately, this prototype's performance will allow for future evaluation of integration, which may lead to the development of a flight capable pallet for future deep-space exploration missions. For HESTIA, my main task was to design the Commodities Exchange Pallet system to be used for completing an integration demonstration. Under the guidance of my mentor, I designed, both, the structural frame and fluid delivery system for the commodities pallet. The fluid delivery system includes a liquid-oxygen to gaseous-oxygen system, a water delivery system, and a carbon-dioxide compressors system. The structural frame is designed to meet safety and transportation requirements, as well as the ability to interface with the ER division's Portable Utility Pallet. The commodities pallet structure also includes independent instrumentation oxygen/water panels for operation and system monitoring. My major accomplishments for the commodities exchange pallet were the completion of the fluid delivery systems and the structural frame designs. In addition, parts selection was completed in order to expedite construction of the prototype, scheduled to begin in May of 2016. Once the commodities pallet is assembled and tested it is expected to complete a fully integrated transfer demonstration with the ISRU unit and the Environmental Control and Life Support System test chamber in September of 2016. In addition to the development of

  16. Oil prices and long-run risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ready, Robert Clayton

    I show that relative levels of aggregate consumption and personal oil consumption provide an excellent proxy for oil prices, and that high oil prices predict low future aggregate consumption growth. Motivated by these facts, I add an oil consumption good to the long-run risk model of Bansal and Yaron [2004] to study the asset pricing implications of observed changes in the dynamic interaction of consumption and oil prices. Empirically I observe that, compared to the first half of my 1987--2010 sample, oil consumption growth in the last 10 years is unresponsive to levels of oil prices, creating an decrease in the mean-reversion of oil prices, and an increase in the persistence of oil price shocks. The model implies that the change in the dynamics of oil consumption generates increased systematic risk from oil price shocks due to their increased persistence. However, persistent oil prices also act as a counterweight for shocks to expected consumption growth, with high expected growth creating high expectations of future oil prices which in turn slow down growth. The combined effect is to reduce overall consumption risk and lower the equity premium. The model also predicts that these changes affect the riskiness of of oil futures contracts, and combine to create a hump shaped term structure of oil futures, consistent with recent data.

  17. Moving from inflation targeting to prices and incomes policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arestis Philip

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper focuses on the future of economic policies with regard to inflation. The dominant approach to inflation over the past two decades or so has been inflation targeting. The global environment of the decade circa 1995 to 2005 with the “China effect” pushing down prices of manufactured goods and with primary commodity prices being subdued was conducive to low inflation. It is argued that inflation targeting has not been a great success story and is unable to address inflation arising from global forces or from struggles over the distribution of income. It is argued that a more sophisticated analysis than that contained in the Phillips curve is required. Further, and from our analysis, counter inflation policies should include the achievement of an inflation barrier consistent with full employment without inflationary pressures. This can be addressed by ensuring that there is sufficient productive capacity to underpin full employment, where sufficient is to be interpreted in terms of quantity, quality and geographical distribution. Further, we argue that this should be complemented by some form of incomes policy, to enable inflation to be contained without resorting to demand deflation.

  18. Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

  19. Rambutan Commodity Development Strategy as Regional Potential Product

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amin Pujiati

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The potential product of a region needs to be developed in order to improve the social welfare. Commonly, at harvest time, there is abundant horticulture commodity. Unluckily, the price of the commodity drops significantly. In other words, it costs  extremely cheap. The purpose of research is analyzing the internal and external factors and determining an appropriate strategy for developing rambutan in Central Java, especially at Gunungpati District, Semarang, Central Java Province. The primary data of this research is obtained from 58 rambutan farmers that have been interviewed and have filled out the questionnaire forms. The secondary data is taken from the Central Bureau of Statistics, the monograph of the village and the internet by implementing the literature study method. Then, SWOT analysis is implemented for analizing the data. The internal factors that become the strengths are fertilized land for rambutan to grow and the farmers’ hereditary experiences in cultivating rambutan. Further, the lack of absorbing power of knowledge and technologies and the low existence of rambutan business are the weaknesses. Next, the external factor that becomes opportunity is the continuous increasing market demand, while the threat is the young generations having no interest in rambutan business. Finally, the stability (hold and maintain strategy should be implemented for developing rambutan business

  20. Do food and oil prices co-move?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reboredo, Juan C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies. - Highlights: ► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.

  1. Hazardous materials highlights : 2007 Commodity Flow Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Hazardous materials movement through the Nations transportation network in 2007 remained relatively unchanged from 2002 measures, according to data from the 2007 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS), released in 2010. The estimated 2.2 billion tons of haza...

  2. Commodity Foods Contain Costs and Create Customers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, Susan K.

    1983-01-01

    San Diego food manufacturers were invited to submit bids on new food items--using as possible ingredients Department of Agriculture donated commodity foods--for the school food service programs. (MLF)

  3. A Hybrid Multi-Step Model for Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Price Based on Optimization, Fuzzy Logic and Model Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ping Jiang

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available The day-ahead electricity market is closely related to other commodity markets such as the fuel and emission markets and is increasingly playing a significant role in human life. Thus, in the electricity markets, accurate electricity price forecasting plays significant role for power producers and consumers. Although many studies developing and proposing highly accurate forecasting models exist in the literature, there have been few investigations on improving the forecasting effectiveness of electricity price from the perspective of reducing the volatility of data with satisfactory accuracy. Based on reducing the volatility of the electricity price and the forecasting nature of the radial basis function network (RBFN, this paper successfully develops a two-stage model to forecast the day-ahead electricity price, of which the first stage is particle swarm optimization (PSO-core mapping (CM with self-organizing-map and fuzzy set (PCMwSF, and the second stage is selection rule (SR. The PCMwSF stage applies CM, fuzzy set and optimized weights to obtain the future price, and the SR stage is inspired by the forecasting nature of RBFN and effectively selects the best forecast during the test period. The proposed model, i.e., CM-PCMwSF-SR, not only overcomes the difficulty of reducing the high volatility of the electricity price but also leads to a superior forecasting effectiveness than benchmarks.

  4. MARKET ECONOMICS PRICING PARTICULARS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. I. Parshin

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The price performs several economic functions: accounting, stimulation, distribution, demand and offer balancing, serving as production site rational choice criterion, information. Most important pricing principles are: price scientific and purpose-aimed substantiation, single pricing and price control process. Pricing process factors are external, internal, basic (independent on money-market, market-determined and controlling. Different pricing methods and models are to be examined, recommendations on practical application of those chosen are to be written.

  5. Energy prices and taxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    Energy Prices and Taxes contains a major international compilation of energy prices at all market levels: import prices, industry prices and consumer prices. The statistics cover main petroleum products, gas, coal and electricity, giving for imported products an average price both for importing country and country of origin. Every issue includes full notes on sources and methods and a description of price mechanisms in each country

  6. R&D and Price Elasticity of Demand

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lucke, D.; Schröder, Philipp; D., Schumacher,

    2004-01-01

    with a higher R&D intensity show a lower price elasticity of demand. This proposition is confirmed by an empirical investigation of export demand for manufactured goods from major industrialised countries. Consequently, real exchange rate changes have an impact on the commodity structure of exports....

  7. Palm Oil Price, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market: A Wavelet Analysis on the Malaysian Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buerhan Saiti

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The study investigates causality between palm oil price, exchange rate and the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI based on the theory of wavelets on the basis of monthly data from the period January 1990 - December 2012. This methodology enables us to identify that the causality between these economic variables at different time intervals. This wavelet decomposition also provides additional evidence to the “reverse causality” theory. We found that the wavelet cross-correlations between stock price and exchange rate skewed to the right at all levels with negative significant correlations which implies that the exchange rate leads the stock price. In the case of stock and commodity prices, there is no significant wavelet-crosscorrelation at first four levels. However, the wavelet cross-correlations skewed to the left at level 5 which implies that the stock price leads commodity price in the long-run. Finally, there is no significant wavelet cross-correlations at all levels as long as we concern between commodity price and exchange rate. It implies that there is no lead-lag relationship between commodity price and exchange rate.

  8. Tracking the market: dynamic pricing and learning in a changing environment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    den Boer, A.V.

    2015-01-01

    Dynamic pricing of commodities without knowing the exact relation between price and demand is a much-studied problem. Most existing studies assume that the parameters describing the market are constant during the selling period. This severely reduces their practical applicability, since, in reality,

  9. Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d'Artis

    2011-01-01

    The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant. (author)

  10. Differential evolution algorithm for multi-commodity and multi-level of service hub covering location problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Setak

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The hub location problem involves a network of origins and destinations over which transportation takes place. There are many studies associated with finding the location of hub nodes and the allocation of demand nodes to these located hub nodes to transfer the only one kind of commodity under one level of service. However, in this study, carrying different commodity types from origin to destination under various levels of services (e.g. price, punctuality, reliability or transit time is studied. Quality of services experienced by users such as speed, convenience, comfort and security of transportation facilities and services is considered as the level of service. In each system, different kinds of commodities with various levels of services can be transmitted. The appropriate level of service that a commodity can be transmitted through is chosen by customer preferences and the specification of the commodity. So, a mixed integer programming formulation for single allocation hub covering location problem, which is based on the idea of transferring multi commodity flows under multi levels of service is presented. These two are applied concepts, multi-commodity and multi-level of service, which make the model's assumptions closer to the real world problems. In addition, a differential evolution algorithm is designed to find near-optimal solutions. The obtained solutions using differential evolution (DE algorithm (upper bound, where its parameters are tuned by response surface methodology, are compared with exact solutions and computed lower bounds by linear relaxation technique to prove the efficiency of proposed DE algorithm.

  11. Natural Resources Management: The Effect of the Commodity Boom on Indonesia’s Industrial Development and Welfare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Monica Wihardja

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The end of the commodity boom in 2012 once again exposed Indonesia to the vulnerability of the commodity price shocks. This article reviews how Indonesia managed its natural resources in 2001–12 and when the commodity boom ends. What are the lessons learned? Indonesia’s experience is similar to that of other countries rich in natural resources, including the crowding-out of non-commodity sectors, protectionist trade regimes, fiscal inefficiency, slow skill accumulation, rising inequality and environmental damages. In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008–09, the early trade -policy response at the end of the commodity boom is inward-looking and protective of domestic markets and industries and aims to increase the added value of commodities by downstreaming. This trend is clearly reflected in the 2014 Trade Law, the 2014 Industry Law and the mineral export ban, which was introduced in 2009 through the 2009 Law on Mining of Coal and Minerals and took effect in 2014. Indonesia should learn from other countries in managing its resource revenues, such as through a commodity fund designed to fit its domestic specificity. Reindustrializing, increasing agricultural productivity beyond palm oil and tapping the country’s potential in the services sector including tourism and creative industries are also necessary to promote diversification in production and trade. Resource management policy should also include stronger environmental regulations.

  12. Commodity movement tracking (CMT) : bridging operations and commercial transactions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lewyta, M.

    2004-01-01

    Enbridge Pipelines Inc. (EPI) operates a network of interconnected pipelines that facilitate the transport of liquid fuels across North America, with operations centralized in Edmonton, Alberta. This paper addressed the issue of accurately tracking the location of commodities transported on EPI pipelines for billing and payment purposes. The role of integrated information systems in meeting the need for high quality information by customers and by EPI was also addressed. The paper presented the Commodity Movement Tracking (CMT) system that is central to achieving the desired accuracy of commercial and financial transactions. CMT tracks inventories and links products to commercial transactions across the pipeline. Batches are tracked from initial receipt to final delivery, incorporating CMT's operational checks and balances, reconciliation steps, process monitoring, and supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems data that contribute to inputs equaling outputs. Daily schedules are recorded into the CMT system as events, based on volumetric information derived from the SCADA system. Receipt and delivery events will be electronically recorded into CMT from field flow computers in the near future. CMT modeling considers changes within the line configuration, static pipe diameter changes, as well as packing and draining of the line fill resulting from pressure changes. This paper described the major functional activities of the overall business process, such as nominations, scheduling, commodity movement tracking, leak detection, electronic ticketing, SCADA, and oil accounting. 10 figs.

  13. 77 FR 25319 - Commodity Options

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-04-27

    .... Swaps Large Trader Reporting; Position Limits vi. SD/MSP Conditions vii. Enforcement Provisions viii... Traders, ECPs, and ESPs 2. SDs, MSPs, SEFs, and SDRs 3. Entities Eligible To Engage in Options on Physical... exchange-traded options on futures, and allowing part 32 to serve as the sole relevant regulation for all...

  14. Transgenic hybrid poplar for sustainable and scalable production of the commodity/specialty chemical, 2-phenylethanol.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A Costa

    Full Text Available Fast growing hybrid poplar offers the means for sustainable production of specialty and commodity chemicals, in addition to rapid biomass production for lignocellulosic deconstruction. Herein we describe transformation of fast-growing transgenic hybrid poplar lines to produce 2-phenylethanol, this being an important fragrance, flavor, aroma, and commodity chemical. It is also readily converted into styrene or ethyl benzene, the latter being an important commodity aviation fuel component. Introducing this biochemical pathway into hybrid poplars marks the beginnings of developing a platform for a sustainable chemical delivery system to afford this and other valuable specialty/commodity chemicals at the scale and cost needed. These modified plant lines mainly sequester 2-phenylethanol via carbohydrate and other covalently linked derivatives, thereby providing an additional advantage of effective storage until needed. The future potential of this technology is discussed. MALDI metabolite tissue imaging also established localization of these metabolites in the leaf vasculature.

  15. Transgenic hybrid poplar for sustainable and scalable production of the commodity/specialty chemical, 2-phenylethanol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Michael A; Marques, Joaquim V; Dalisay, Doralyn S; Herman, Barrington; Bedgar, Diana L; Davin, Laurence B; Lewis, Norman G

    2013-01-01

    Fast growing hybrid poplar offers the means for sustainable production of specialty and commodity chemicals, in addition to rapid biomass production for lignocellulosic deconstruction. Herein we describe transformation of fast-growing transgenic hybrid poplar lines to produce 2-phenylethanol, this being an important fragrance, flavor, aroma, and commodity chemical. It is also readily converted into styrene or ethyl benzene, the latter being an important commodity aviation fuel component. Introducing this biochemical pathway into hybrid poplars marks the beginnings of developing a platform for a sustainable chemical delivery system to afford this and other valuable specialty/commodity chemicals at the scale and cost needed. These modified plant lines mainly sequester 2-phenylethanol via carbohydrate and other covalently linked derivatives, thereby providing an additional advantage of effective storage until needed. The future potential of this technology is discussed. MALDI metabolite tissue imaging also established localization of these metabolites in the leaf vasculature.

  16. A dual theory of price and value in a meso-scale economic model with stochastic profit rate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2014-12-01

    The problem of commodity price determination in a market-based, capitalist economy has a long and contentious history. Neoclassical microeconomic theories are based typically on marginal utility assumptions, while classical macroeconomic theories tend to be value-based. In the current work, I study a simplified meso-scale model of a commodity capitalist economy. The production/exchange model is represented by a network whose nodes are firms, workers, capitalists, and markets, and whose directed edges represent physical or monetary flows. A pair of multivariate linear equations with stochastic input parameters represent physical (supply/demand) and monetary (income/expense) balance. The input parameters yield a non-degenerate profit rate distribution across firms. Labor time and price are found to be eigenvector solutions to the respective balance equations. A simple relation is derived relating the expected value of commodity price to commodity labor content. Results of Monte Carlo simulations are consistent with the stochastic price/labor content relation.

  17. 17 CFR 155.3 - Trading standards for futures commission merchants.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Trading standards for futures commission merchants. 155.3 Section 155.3 Commodity and Securities Exchanges COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION TRADING STANDARDS § 155.3 Trading standards for futures commission merchants. (a) Each futures...

  18. Modelling prices in competitive electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bunn, D.W.

    2004-04-01

    Electricity markets are structurally different to other commodities, and the real-time dynamic balancing of the electricity network involves many external factors. Because of this, it is not a simple matter to transfer conventional models of financial time series analysis to wholesale electricity prices. The rationale for this compilation of chapters from international authors is, therefore, to provide econometric analysis of wholesale power markets around the world, to give greater understanding of their particular characteristics, and to assess the applicability of various methods of price modelling. Researchers and professionals in this sector will find the book an invaluable guide to the most important state-of-the-art modelling techniques which are converging to define the special approaches necessary for unravelling and forecasting the behaviour of electricity prices. It is a high-quality synthesis of the work of financial engineering, industrial economics and power systems analysis, as they relate to the behaviour of competitive electricity markets. (author)

  19. The price level and monetary policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Charles P. Kindleberger

    2002-03-01

    Full Text Available Most central banks are required to or choose to stabilize a price index, largely by manipulating short term interest rates. A serious problem is which index to choose among the national income deflator, wholesale prices, the cost of living, with or eliminating highly volatile commodities such as food and energy, to produce a core index, plus others such as housing, including or without imputed rent of owner-occupied houses, or assets, whether equities or houses. No obvious and widely agreed index exists. Even if there were a clear choice, there remains a question whether a central bank should carefully consider action in order to achieve other goals: full employment, adjustment of the balance of payments, of the exchange rate, prevention of bubbles in asset prices, or recovery from financial crises. If so, the question of central bank weapons remains: monetary expansion or contraction, credit controls, for overall or for particular purposes, and moral suasion.

  20. Historical statistics for mineral and material commodities in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Thomas; Matos, Grecia; with Buckingham, David; DiFrancesco, Carl; Porter, Kenneth; Berry, Cyrus; Crane, Melissa; Goonan, Thomas; Sznopek, John

    2005-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides information to the public and to policy-makers concerning the current use and flow of minerals and materials in the United States economy. The USGS collects, analyzes, and disseminates minerals information on most nonfuel mineral commodities.This USGS digital database is an online compilation of historical U.S. statistics on mineral and material commodities. The database contains information on approximately 90 mineral commodities, including production, imports, exports, and stocks; reported and apparent consumption; and unit value (the real and nominal price in U.S. dollars of a metric ton of apparent consumption). For many of the commodities, data are reported as far back as 1900. Each commodity file includes a document that describes the units of measure, defines terms, and lists USGS contacts for additional information End-use tables complement these statistics by supplying, for most of these commodities, information about the distribution of apparent consumption.This publication draws on more than 125 years of minerals information experience. At the request of the 47th Congress of the United States (1882; 22 Stat. 329), the U.S. Government began the collection and public distribution of these types of data. The Federal agencies responsible for the collection of the data have changed through time. For the years 1882-1924, the USGS collected and published these data; the U.S. Bureau of Mines (USBM) performed these tasks from 1925-95; and in 1996, the responsibilities once again passed to the USGS (following the closure of the USBM) (Mlynarski, 1998).The USGS collects data on a monthly, quarterly, semiannual, and annual basis from more than 18,000 minerals-related producer and consumer establishments that cooperate with the USGS. These companies voluntarily complete about 40,000 canvass forms that survey production, consumption, recycling, stocks, shipments, and other essential information. Data are also gathered from

  1. Financial states of world financial and commodities markets around sovereign debt crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nobi, Ashadun; Lee, Jae Woo

    2017-11-01

    We applied a threshold method to construct a complex network from cross-correlations coefficients of 46 daily time series comprised of 23 global indices and 23 commodity futures from 2010 - 2014. We identify financial states of both global indices and commodity futures based on the change of the network structure. The trend of the average correlation is decreasing except sharp peak during crises during the study period. The threshold networks are generated at a threshold value of θ = 0.1 and the change of degrees of each node over time is used to identify the financial state for each index. We observe that commodity futures, such as EU CO2 emission, live cattle, natural gas as well as the financial indices of Jakarta and Indonesia stock exchange (JKSE) and Kuala Lumpur stock exchange (KLSE) change states frequently. By the average change in links we identify the indices which are more reactive to crises.

  2. Price volatility in wind dominant electricity markets

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Farashbashi-Astaneh, Seyed-Mostafa; Chen, Zhe

    2013-01-01

    High penetration of intermittent renewable energy sources causes price volatility in future electricity markets. This is specially the case in European countries that plan high penetration levels. This highlights the necessity for revising market regulations and mechanisms in accordance...... electricity markets. High price volatility is unappreciated because it imposes high financial risk levels to both electricity consumers and producers. Additionally high price variations impede tracking price signals by consumers in future smart grid and jeopardize implementation of demand response concepts....... The main contribution of this paper is to quantify volatility patterns of electricity price, as penetration level of wind power increases. Results explain a direct relationship between wind penetration and electricity price volatility in a quantitative manner....

  3. The determinants of the recent food price surges – A basic supply and demand model

    OpenAIRE

    Bernhard Troester

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyzes the factors behind the recent trends in food commodity prices, especially the question to what extent the price hikes are caused by fundamentals. Some of the main determinants have been identified and classified in ongoing studies. Based on this categorization, a basic supply and demand model for food commodity markets is developed in this paper that includes two arguments. One is that the growth rate of notional food demand differs from the growth rate of food supply. Con...

  4. 7 CFR 65.205 - Perishable agricultural commodity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Perishable agricultural commodity. 65.205 Section 65... COMMODITIES, MACADAMIA NUTS, PECANS, PEANUTS, AND GINSENG General Provisions Definitions § 65.205 Perishable agricultural commodity. Perishable agricultural commodity means fresh and frozen fruits and vegetables of every...

  5. 49 CFR 1248.100 - Commodity classification designated.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 9 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Commodity classification designated. 1248.100... TRANSPORTATION BOARD, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) ACCOUNTS, RECORDS AND REPORTS FREIGHT COMMODITY STATISTICS Commodity Code § 1248.100 Commodity classification designated. Commencing with reports for the...

  6. 7 CFR 253.10 - Commodity control, storage and distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Commodity control, storage and distribution. 253.10... THE FOOD DISTRIBUTION PROGRAM FOR HOUSEHOLDS ON INDIAN RESERVATIONS § 253.10 Commodity control... issuance of commodities to households and the control of and accountability for the commodities upon its...

  7. 7 CFR 868.32 - Who shall inspect commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Who shall inspect commodities. 868.32 Section 868.32... FOR CERTAIN AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES Regulations Inspection Methods and Procedures § 868.32 Who shall inspect commodities. Official commodity inspections shall be performed only by official personnel. ...

  8. 22 CFR 228.52 - Suppliers of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Suppliers of commodities. 228.52 Section 228.52... COMMODITIES AND SERVICES FINANCED BY USAID Waivers § 228.52 Suppliers of commodities. Geographic code changes authorized by waiver with respect to the source of commodities automatically apply to the nationality of...

  9. 7 CFR 247.28 - Storage and inventory of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Storage and inventory of commodities. 247.28 Section..., DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE CHILD NUTRITION PROGRAMS COMMODITY SUPPLEMENTAL FOOD PROGRAM § 247.28 Storage and inventory of commodities. (a) What are the requirements for storage of commodities? State and local agencies...

  10. 22 CFR 228.11 - Source and origin of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Source and origin of commodities. 228.11... NATIONALITY FOR COMMODITIES AND SERVICES FINANCED BY USAID Conditions Governing Source and Nationality of Commodity Procurement Transactions for USAID Financing § 228.11 Source and origin of commodities. (a) The...

  11. 22 CFR 201.11 - Eligibility of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Eligibility of commodities. 201.11 Section 201... COMMODITY TRANSACTIONS FINANCED BY USAID Conditions Governing the Eligibility of Procurement Transactions for USAID Financing § 201.11 Eligibility of commodities. To qualify for USAID financing, a commodity...

  12. 22 CFR 228.14 - Nationality of suppliers of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-04-01

    ... 22 Foreign Relations 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Nationality of suppliers of commodities. 228.14... NATIONALITY FOR COMMODITIES AND SERVICES FINANCED BY USAID Conditions Governing Source and Nationality of Commodity Procurement Transactions for USAID Financing § 228.14 Nationality of suppliers of commodities. (a...

  13. 7 CFR 46.39 - Inspection of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Inspection of commodities. 46.39 Section 46.39..., Inspections, Marketing Practices), DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE MARKETING OF PERISHABLE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES REGULATIONS (OTHER THAN RULES OF PRACTICE) UNDER THE PERISHABLE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES ACT, 1930 Commodity...

  14. 41 CFR 51-6.13 - Replacement and similar commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... commodities. 51-6.13 Section 51-6.13 Public Contracts and Property Management Other Provisions Relating to... PROCEDURES § 51-6.13 Replacement and similar commodities. (a) When a commodity on the Procurement List is replaced by another commodity which has not been recently procured, and a nonprofit agency can furnish the...

  15. 7 CFR 251.4 - Availability of commodities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Availability of commodities. 251.4 Section 251.4... Availability of commodities. (a) General. The Department shall make commodities available for distribution and... receiving commodities under this part shall not diminish their normal expenditures for food because of...

  16. Record prices [crude oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2006-01-01

    Crude oil prices climbed to new record levels on fears of a future loss of supplies from Iran as Washington stepped up its efforts to persuade Tehran to abandon its programme to produce nuclear fuel. IPE's December Brent contract set a new record for the exchange by trading at $75.80/bbl on 21st April. On the same day October WTI reached an all-time high of $77.30/bbl on Nymex. US product prices gained as refiners struggled to produce sufficient middle distillate. Alarmed by the rising retail price of gasoline, the US Senate debated a reduction in the already low US tax rate on motor spirit. The House of Representatives passed a measure to prohibit overcharging for petrol, diesel and heating oil, but Democrats rejected a Republican proposal to speed-up the process for approving new refineries. President George W Bush announced a temporary easing of new gasoline and diesel specifications (see 'Focus', March 2006) to allow more fuel to be produced. He also agreed to delay the repayment of some 2.1 mn bbl of crude oil lent to companies after last year's hurricanes from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. California announced an inquiry into alleged overcharging for fuel by oil companies operating in the state. (author)

  17. Trends in prices to commercial energy consumers in the competitive Texas electricity market

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zarnikau, Jay; Fox, Marilyn; Smolen, Paul

    2007-01-01

    To date, the price of electricity to commercial or business energy consumers has generally increased at greater rates in the areas of Texas where retail competition has been introduced than in areas that do not enjoy competition. Trends in commercial competitive prices have largely mirrored trends in residential prices. Market restructuring has tended to increase the sensitivity of retail electricity prices to changes in the price of natural gas, the marginal fuel used for generation in Texas. Consequently, the rapid increases in the commodity price of natural gas following restructuring led to increases in competitive electric rates which exceeded the increases in areas not exposed to restructuring, where the fuel component of electric rates tend to reflect a weighted average of the utilities' fuel costs. There is some evidence that pricing behavior by competitive retailers changed when the retailers affiliated with the incumbent utilities were permitted some pricing flexibility, resulting in a reduction in prices

  18. North American natural gas price outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Denhardt, R.

    1998-01-01

    Issues regarding future natural gas prices for North America were discussed. Various aspects of the issue including the relationship between storage, weather and prices, received attention. It was noted that strong demand-growth will be needed to support near-term Canadian export increases without price declines. The issue of Gulf Coast production was also discussed. Power generation using natural gas as fuel is expected to support strong growth in the demand for natural gas. tabs., figs

  19. ARCH Models Efficiency Evaluation in Prediction and Poultry Price Process Formation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behzad Fakari Sardehae

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Poultry is an important commodity for household consumption. In recent years, price fluctuation for this commodity has caused an uncertain condition for consumers and poultry prices over the past two years has changed a lot. This has caused many changes and uncertainty in a purchase decision. Analysis of changes and volatility modeling can be a great help to predict the poultry prices and great facilities in creating appropriate policies in future. The prices of staples such as poultry consumption basket is highly variable because much of the protein is necessary for daily energy are supplied in this way to households. So when the price of chicken which has been changed over the past two years and has always been in the press and media attention, has been selected in this study. Fluctuations in price of chicken have caused a surge in consumer expectations and contributed in volatility of chicken price. Materials and Methods: In this study ARCH models have been used for daily price of poultry of Iran’s market and this was investigated for2012-13and2013-14.BecauseARCH models can model the impact of heterogeneous variance over time in time series data then the variance of time series, which is limited in time, has no time limit. Many time series are more complex than a linear patterns, thus, non-linear models are of particular importance in Economic Sciences and Econometrics. Accordingly, Engle presented that ARCH model can model the heterogeneous variance components of the error term. That is a disturbing element and modeling can help to examine and explore the relationship between the components can be found disturbing. Basically, these models fit the data to a cluster and periodic oscillations with high volatility and low volatility associated with the period. In this study, we used several different models like ARCH, GARCH, IGARCH, and TGARCH. The distribution of the error term of the model also followt-student distribution

  20. AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF A FOOD SECURITY COMMODITY RESERVE: COMMODITY VS. CASH

    OpenAIRE

    Young, C. Edwin; Westcott, Paul C.; Hoffman, Linwood A.; Lin, William W.; Rosen, Stacey L.

    1999-01-01

    The cost of operating the Food Security Commodity Reserve as a commodity reserve was compared with the cost of a cash reserve to purchase food aid supplies only in the period of need. Preliminary simulation results reveal the cash reserve to be less costly in almost all cases.