WorldWideScience

Sample records for co2 mitigation scenarios

  1. CO2 mitigation scenarios in China's road transport sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Can; Cai, Wenjia; Lu, Xuedu; Chen, Jining

    2007-01-01

    China is the world's second largest greenhouse gas emitter, and emissions from the road transport sector represent one of the fastest growing GHG sources in China. Taking previous research on China's projected future vehicle ownership and future CO 2 emissions in the transport sector as a starting point, this paper reviews all recent environmental policies relating to the automobile industry and employs a scenario analysis to estimate different emissions inventories for different development strategies. The new policy scenario considers all possible mitigation options available to the road transport sector from a bottom up perspective and examines the effects for fuel efficiency improvement and the cost of these mitigation options - vehicle technology improvement, bus rapid transit system and fuel switching, through which the carbon dioxide emissions reduction potential is estimated. Not only does this paper indicate that a large emissions reduction potential exists in China's road transport sector, but it implies that vehicle technology improvement, especially engine technology is likely to be the most effective means to meet emissions reduction targets. This paper concludes by identifying key barriers to implementing those options in China and deduces the technical, financial and institutional aspects of the demand in China for national capacity building and international aid in order to achieve the emissions reduction goals

  2. Scenario analysis of energy saving and CO_2 emissions reduction potentials to ratchet up Japanese mitigation target in 2030 in the residential sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wakiyama, Takako; Kuramochi, Takeshi

    2017-01-01

    This paper assesses to what extent CO_2 emissions from electricity in the residential sector can be further reduced in Japan beyond its post-2020 mitigation target (known as “Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)”). The paper examines the reduction potential of electricity demand and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector by conducting a scenario analysis. Electricity consumption scenarios are set up using a time-series regression model, and used to forecast the electricity consumption patterns to 2030. The scenario analysis also includes scenarios that reduce electricity consumption through enhanced energy efficiency and energy saving measures. The obtained results show that Japan can reduce electricity consumption and CO_2 emissions in the residential sector in 2030 more than the Japanese post-2020 mitigation target indicates. At the maximum, the electricity consumption could be reduced by 35 TWh, which contributes to 55.4 MtCO_2 of emissions reduction in 2030 compared to 2013 if the voluntarily targeted CO_2 intensity of electricity is achieved. The result implies that Japan has the potential to ratchet up post-2020 mitigation targets discussed under the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). - Highlights: • Further reduction of electricity consumption is possible beyond Japan's post-2020 mitigation target. • Energy saving efforts by households and incentives to reduce electricity demands are required. • Improvement of CO_2 intensity from electricity is a key factor in the reduction of CO_2 emissions.

  3. The potential role of nuclear energy in mitigating CO2 emissions in the United Arab Emirates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    AlFarra, Hasan Jamil; Abu-Hijleh, Bassam

    2012-01-01

    The annual CO 2 emissions have more than doubled in the UAE since 1990. Electricity generated by fossil fuels is responsible for almost half of the country's emissions. Keeping with the Kyoto Protocol, the UAE decided to integrate nuclear energy into the electricity scheme to mitigate CO 2 emissions as declared by the government. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of the UAE's proposed nuclear energy strategy in mitigating CO 2 emissions from the built environment up to year 2050. The IAEA's simulation model “MESSAGE” is used to estimate the energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the UAE up to year 2050. Several energy supply/fuels scenarios are modeled and simulated including the following: Business as Usual (BaU), the UAE proposed nuclear strategy (APR1400) as well as 12 more aggressive Clean Energy Era (CEE) proposed scenarios. Nuclear energy, especially in its extreme CEE scenario (8NPPs), was found to be more practical option in mitigating CO 2 than renewable energy and carbon capture and sequestration among the simulated scenarios. Nuclear energy also demonstrated an economic viability. The cost of electricity produced from nuclear energy was calculated to be 3.2 cents/kWh, significantly less than the current cost of 8.15 cents/kWh for electricity generation from fossil fuels in the UAE. - Highlights: ► Effectiveness of the UAE's proposed nuclear energy strategy in mitigating CO 2 emissions. ► Simulation is used to estimate the energy demand and CO 2 emissions in the UAE. ► Tested several energy supply/fuels scenarios on mitigating CO 2 .

  4. Ambitious mitigation scenarios for Germany: A participatory approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schmid, Eva; Knopf, Brigitte

    2012-01-01

    This paper addresses the challenge of engaging civil society stakeholders in the development process of ambitious mitigation scenarios that are based on formal energy system modeling, allowing for the explicit attachment of normative considerations to technology-focused mitigation options. It presents the definition and model results for a set of mitigation scenarios for Germany that achieve 85% CO 2 emission reduction in 2050 relative to 1990. During consecutive dialogues, civil society stakeholders from the transport and electricity sector framed the definition of boundary conditions for the energy-economy model REMIND-D and evaluated the scenarios with regard to plausibility and social acceptance implications. Even though the limited scope of this research impedes inferential conclusions on the German energy transition as a whole, it demonstrates that the technological solutions to the mitigation problem proposed by the model give rise to significant societal and political implications that deem at least as challenging as the mere engineering aspects of innovative technologies. These insights underline the importance of comprehending mitigation of energy-related CO 2 emissions as a socio-technical transition embedded in a political context. - Highlights: ► Preferences of German civil society stakeholders are elicited in dialogues. ► Three scenarios represent likely, desirable and controversial key developments. ► A carbon lock-in from freight transport and coal electrification is deemed likely. ► Stakeholders advocate major paradigm shifts for resolving the carbon lock-in. ► Institutional and societal factors are decisive for achieving ambitious mitigation.

  5. Thailand's Low-Carbon Scenario 2050: The AIM/CGE analyses of CO2 mitigation measures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thepkhun, Panida; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Masui, Toshihiko; Shrestha, Ram M.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and CO 2 mitigation have become increasingly important environmental issues. Recently Thailand has proposed policies on GHG mitigation such as Thailand’s Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action (NAMA), which aims at GHG mitigation in the energy sector. This study used the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, called “AIM/CGE” model, to analyse GHG mitigation measures under emission trading and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in Thailand. Results show that the international free emission trading policy can drive more GHG reduction by decreasing energy supply and demand, and increasing prices of emissions. The CCS technologies would balance emission reduction but they would reduce energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy utilization. In the energy security aspect, the policy options in this study would improve energy security, energy import dependency, and co-benefits of GHG mitigation in forms of improving local air quality. Results are also helpful to GHG mitigation policy in developing countries. -- Highlights: •A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was used to analyze GHG mitigation policies in Thailand. •The CCS and emission trading will increase GHG mitigation in Thailand. •The 30% GHG mitigation target with 50% emission trading will give the best result in GDP. •The share of biomass resource and energy efficiency will decrease with CCS. •The emission trading will play an important role in decreasing fossil consumption and increasing renewable energy utilization

  6. Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2017-11-01

    Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

  7. Sustainable urban transportation: impact of CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies on local pollutants

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sudhakar Yedla; Jyoti K Parikh [Indira Ghandi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai (India); Ram M Shrestha [Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani (Thailand). School of Environment Resource and Development

    2003-07-01

    This paper assesses CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies in Delhi and Mumbai against the dynamics of local pollutants. After testing against techno-economic feasibility, compressed natural gas (CNG) technology, four-stroke two-wheelers and battery-operated vehicles (BOV) were selected as candidate options for Mumbai and Delhi. Multiple constrained optimization for finding out the optimal mix of vehicles to meet the travel demand under the business-as-usual scenario for the period of 1998-2020 revealed the dominance of CNG vehicles. CO{sub 2} mitigation targets of 5, 10, 15, 20, 25% resulted in reduced stock of diesel and petrol vehicles, with the reduction spanning over different points of the above time period. In the case of Mumbai, battery-operated three-wheelers dominated the vehicular mix, with the share of CNG vehicles remaining at a standard level. CO{sub 2} reduction targets did not influence the CNG option significantly. CO{sub 2} mitigation influenced the dynamics of local pollutants considerably in both Delhi and Mumbai. In Delhi, TSP and SO{sub x} reduction levels against the CO{sub 2} mitigation target were found to be significant. In Mumbai, the percentage reduction in local pollution (TSP in particular) was higher than the target CO{sub 2} reduction. Local pollutants other than TSP and SO{sub x} showed an increasing trend against the CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies in Delhi. In the case of Mumbai, all non-target pollutants showed a falling trend against the CO{sub 2} mitigation strategies, though insignificantly for pollutants other than TSP and SO{sub x}. (author)

  8. Future reef decalcification under a business-as-usual CO2 emission scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dove, Sophie G; Kline, David I; Pantos, Olga; Angly, Florent E; Tyson, Gene W; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove

    2013-09-17

    Increasing atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) is a major threat to coral reefs, but some argue that the threat is mitigated by factors such as the variability in the response of coral calcification to acidification, differences in bleaching susceptibility, and the potential for rapid adaptation to anthropogenic warming. However the evidence for these mitigating factors tends to involve experimental studies on corals, as opposed to coral reefs, and rarely includes the influence of multiple variables (e.g., temperature and acidification) within regimes that include diurnal and seasonal variability. Here, we demonstrate that the inclusion of all these factors results in the decalcification of patch-reefs under business-as-usual scenarios and reduced, although positive, calcification under reduced-emission scenarios. Primary productivity was found to remain constant across all scenarios, despite significant bleaching and coral mortality under both future scenarios. Daylight calcification decreased and nocturnal decalcification increased sharply from the preindustrial and control conditions to the future scenarios of low (reduced emissions) and high (business-as-usual) increases in pCO2. These changes coincided with deeply negative carbonate budgets, a shift toward smaller carbonate sediments, and an increase in the abundance of sediment microbes under the business-as-usual emission scenario. Experimental coral reefs demonstrated highest net calcification rates and lowest rates of coral mortality under preindustrial conditions, suggesting that reef processes may not have been able to keep pace with the relatively minor environmental changes that have occurred during the last century. Taken together, our results have serious implications for the future of coral reefs under business-as-usual environmental changes projected for the coming decades and century.

  9. Global climate change mitigation scenarios for solid waste management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Monni, S. [Benviroc Ltd, Espoo (Finland); Pipatti, R. [Statistics Finland, Helsinki (Finland); Lehtilae, A.; Savolainen, I.; Syri, S. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Espoo (Finland)

    2006-07-15

    The waste sector is an important contributor to climate change. CH{sub 4} produced at solid waste disposal sites contributes approximately 3.4 percent to the annual global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions from solid waste disposal are expected to increase with increasing global population and GDP. On the other hand, many cost-efficient emission reduction options are available. The rate of waste degradation in landfills depends on waste composition, climate and conditions in the landfill. Because the duration of CH{sub 4} generation is several decades, estimation of emissions from landfills requires modelling of waste disposal prior to the year whose emissions are of interest. In this study, country- or region-specific first-order decay (FOD) models based on the 2006 IPCC Guidelines are used to estimate emissions from municipal solid waste disposal in landfills. In addition, IPCC methodology is used to estimate emissions from waste incineration. Five global scenarios are compiled from 1990 to 2050. These scenarios take into account political decision making and changes in the waste management system. In the Baseline scenario, waste generation is assumed to follow past and current trends using population and GDP as drivers. In the other scenarios, effects of increased incineration, increased recycling and increased landfill gas recovery on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are assessed. Economic maximum emission reduction potentials for these waste management options are estimated at different marginal cost levels for the year 2030 by using the Global TIMES model. Global emissions from landfills are projected to increase from 340 Tg CO{sub 2} eq in 1990 to 1500 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2030 and 2900 Tg CO{sub 2} eq by 2050 in the Baseline scenario. The emission reduction scenarios give emissions reductions from 5% (9%) to 21% (27%) compared to the Baseline in 2030 (2050). As each scenario considered one mitigation option, the results are largely additive, and

  10. Strategies for implementation of CO2-mitigation options in Nigeria's energy sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ibitoye, F.I.; Akinbami, J.-F.K.

    1999-01-01

    Recent studies indicate that Nigeria's CO 2 budget was about 164 million tonnes (MTons) in 1990, of which the energy sector contributed close to 55%. It is expected that CO 2 emissions emanating from the energy sector will increase from 90 MTons in 1990 to about 3 times this value in another 30 years, assuming a least-cost moderate development scenario. A number of viable CO 2 -mitigation options have already been identified in the energy sector, some of them the so-called 'win-win' options. As attractive as some of these options might appear, their implementation will depend on the removal of certain barriers. These barriers include a lack of legislative framework, a lack of awareness, a lack of access to appropriate technology, as well as inappropriate energy-pricing policies, among others. The paper presents an overview of Nigeria's energy-sector, the CO 2 mitigation-options, the factors militating against implementation of the options, and some policy recommendations for removal of the barriers. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  11. The role of non-CO2 mitigation within the dairy sector in pursuing climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolph, K.; Forest, C. E.

    2017-12-01

    Mitigation of non-CO2 climate forcing agents must complement the mitigation of carbon dioxide (CO2) to achieve long-term temperature and climate policy goals. By using multi-gas mitigation strategies, society can limit the rate of temperature change on decadal timescales and reduce the cost of implementing policies that only consider CO2 mitigation. The largest share of global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions is attributed to agriculture, with activities related to dairy production contributing the most in this sector. Approximately 4% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is released from the dairy sub-sector, primarily through enteric fermentation, feed production, and manure management. Dairy farmers can significantly reduce their emissions by implementing better management practices. This study assesses the potential mitigation of projected climate change if greenhouse gases associated with the dairy sector were reduced. To compare the performance of several mitigation measures under future climate change, we employ a fully coupled earth system model of intermediate complexity, the MIT Integrated Global System Model (IGSM). The model includes an interactive carbon-cycle capable of addressing important feedbacks between the climate and terrestrial biosphere. Mitigation scenarios are developed using estimated emission reductions of implemented management practices studied by the USDA-funded Sustainable Dairy Project (Dairy-CAP). We examine pathways to reach the US dairy industry's voluntary goal of reducing dairy emissions 25% by 2020. We illustrate the importance of ongoing mitigation efforts in the agricultural industry to reduce non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions towards established climate goals.

  12. Pursuing air pollutant co-benefits of CO2 mitigation in China: A provincial leveled analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, Huijuan; Dai, Hancheng; Dong, Liang; Fujita, Tsuyoshi; Geng, Yong; Klimont, Zbigniew; Inoue, Tsuyoshi; Bunya, Shintaro; Fujii, Minoru; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • China’s future CO 2 reduction and its co-benefits on air pollutants were projected. • GAINS-China and AIM/CGE models were combined for emission and cost estimation. • High GDP regions tended to have higher emission, reduction potential and co-benefit. • Coal ratio and coal quality were also key factors to affect reduction and co-benefit. • Mitigation investment to less developed western regions was more effective. - Abstract: With fast economic development, industrialization and urbanization, China faces increasing pressures on carbon emission reduction, and especially on air pollutants (SO 2 , NOx, PM) reduction, particularly the notorious haze issue caused by air pollution in recent years. Pursuing co-benefits is an effective approach to simultaneously respond to both carbon and air pollutant problems. In this paper, the AIM/CGE (Asia–Pacific Integrated Assessment Model/Computational General Equilibrium) model and GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies)-China model are combined together to project future CO 2 and air pollutants emissions in China, as well as reduction costs and co-benefit effects. Considering implementation of carbon mitigation policy and air pollutant mitigation technologies, four scenarios (S1, S2, S3 and S4) are analyzed. Results indicate that by implementing both carbon and air pollutant mitigation (S4), CO 2 emission per GDP can be reduced by 41% by 2020, compared with the 2005 level, and SO 2 , NOx and PM2.5 emissions would change by a factor 0.8, 1.26 and 1.0 of the 2005 level, respectively in 2030. The real co-benefits of emission reductions (S2 minus S4) for SO 2 , NOx and PM2.5 are 2.4 Mt, 2.1 Mt and 0.3 Mt in 2020, and the corresponding cost reduction co-benefits are 4, 0.11, and 0.8 billion €, respectively. Provincial disparity analysis reveals that regions with higher co-benefits are those with higher GDP such as Guangdong, Shandong and Jiangsu, energy production bases such as

  13. China’s Low-Carbon Scenario Analysis of CO2 Mitigation Measures towards 2050 Using a Hybrid AIM/CGE Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Li

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available China’s emissions continue to rise rapidly in line with its mounting energy consumption, which puts considerable pressure on China to meet its emission reduction commitments. This paper assesses the impacts of CO2 mitigation measures in China during the period from 2010 to 2050 by using a computable general equilibrium method, called AIM/CGE. Results show that renewable energy makes a critical difference in abating emissions during the period from 2010 to 2020. The scenarios with emission trading would drive more emission reductions, whereby the emission-cutting commitment for 2020 would be achieved and emission reductions in 2050 would be more than 57.90%. Meanwhile, the share of non-fossil energy increases significantly and would be more than doubled in 2050 compared with the BAU scenario. A carbon tax would result in a significant decline in emissions in the short term, but would have an adverse effect on economic growth and energy structure improvements. It is also observed that the integrated measures would not only substantially decrease the total emissions, but also improve the energy structure.

  14. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Elzen, Michel G.J. den

    2012-01-01

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO 2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions. - Highlights: ► The potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. ► Some regions have attractive CO 2 storage capacity; others have low-cost solar/wind potential. ► The recent rapid growth of Chinese industry may limit emission reduction potential for decades. ► Fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in mitigation scenarios. ► Mitigation scenarios show less fossil energy import and reduction of air pollutant emission.

  15. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions.

  16. The economics of greenhouse gas mitigation: Insights from illustrative global abatement scenarios modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gurney, Andrew; Ahammad, Helal; Ford, Melanie

    2009-01-01

    In this paper the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) and MAGICC are used to simulate a number of global emission mitigation scenarios devised by the EMF 22 Transition Scenarios group in which radiative forcing goals and the architecture of developing economies' participation in hypothetical mitigation actions are varied. This paper presents a reference case of the world economy to 2100 and analyses some key regional and global results for the various global mitigation scenarios, including emission prices, emission levels, primary energy consumption and economic growth. Modelling results suggest that a transition to a low-carbon world would require a significant decarbonisation of electricity generation without necessarily cutting the electricity output in the long run. With the uptake of hybrids and non-fossil-fuel technologies, the transport sector could make an important contribution to global abatement of greenhouse gases. Furthermore, with substantial international mitigation efforts and uptake of low- and/or zero-emission technologies, the achievement of 3.7 W/m 2 and 4.5 W/m 2 radiative forcing targets by the end of the century could occur at emission prices of up to $550/t CO 2 -e. However, achieving the 2.6 W/m 2 (overshoot) radiative forcing target would require considerably higher emission prices and an immediate global mitigation action.

  17. Japan's Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 - Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Lai, Judy; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Azevedo, Ines Lima

    2009-09-01

    In this analysis, the authors projected Japan's energy demand/supply and energy-related CO{sub 2} emissions to 2050. Their analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japan's CO{sub 2} emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO{sub 2} emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservation at the same pace as an annual rate of 1.9% after the oil crises (to cut primary energy demand per GDP (TPES/GDP) in 2050 by 60% from 2005) and expand the share of non-fossil energy sources in total primary energy supply in 2050 to 50% (to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per primary energy demand (CO{sub 2}/TPES) in 2050 by 40% from 2005). Concerning power generation mix in 2050, nuclear power will account for 60%, solar and other renewable energy sources for 20%, hydro power for 10% and fossil-fired generation for 10%, indicating substantial shift away from fossil fuel in electric power supply. Among the mitigation measures in the case of reducing CO{sub 2} emissions by 60% in 2050, energy conservation will make the greatest contribution to the emission reduction, being followed by solar power, nuclear power and other renewable energy sources. In order to realize this massive CO{sub 2} abatement, however, Japan will have to overcome technological and economic challenges including the large-scale deployment of nuclear power and renewable technologies.

  18. Economical analysis of an alternative strategy for CO2 mitigation based on nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso, Gustavo; Valle, Edmundo del

    2013-01-01

    Many countries are pursuing greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies resulting in the increase of use of renewable sources in the electricity sector to mitigate CO 2 emissions. Nuclear energy is a non-emitting CO 2 source that could be used as part of that policy. However, its main drawback is the high investment required for its deployment. On the other hand, wind power is the clean source preferred option to mitigate CO 2 emissions. However, due to its intermittence backup power is needed, in most of the cases it must be provided with combined cycle thermal plants using natural gas. This study performs an economical comparison of a hypothetical implementation of a nuclear strategy to meet the same CO 2 emissions reduction goal that has been obtained by the actual Spaniard strategy (2005–2010) based on wind power. The investment required in both strategies is assessed under different investment scenarios and electricity production conditions for nuclear power. Also, the cost of electricity generation is compared for both strategies. - Highlights: ► Wind power electricity cost including its backup in Spain is assessed. ► Nuclear power is proposed as an alternative to produce the same CO 2 reduction. ► Nuclear power requires less installed capacity deployment. ► Investment to produce the same CO 2 reduction is smaller using nuclear power. ► Electricity generating cost is less expensive using the nuclear option

  19. Scenario analysis on CO2 emissions reduction potential in China's iron and steel industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Ke; Wang Can; Lu Xuedu; Chen Jining

    2007-01-01

    The international climate community has begun to assess a range of possible options for strengthening the international climate change effort after 2012. Analysis of the potential for sector-based emissions reduction and relevant mitigation options will provide the necessary background information for the debate. In order to assess the CO 2 abatement potential of China's steel industry, a model was developed using LEAP software to generate 3 different CO 2 emission scenarios for the industry from 2000 to 2030. The abatement potentials of different scenarios were compared, and their respective feasibilities were assessed according to the cost information. High priority abatement measures were then identified. The results show that the average CO 2 abatement per year in the Recent Policy scenario and in the New Policy scenario, compared with the reference scenario, are 51 and 107 million tons, respectively. The corresponding total incremental costs are 9.34 and 80.95 billion dollars. It is concluded that there is great potential for CO 2 abatement in China's steel industry. Adjusting the structure of the industry and technological advancement will play an important role in emissions reduction. Successful implementation of current sustainable development policies and measures will result in CO 2 abatement at a low cost. However, to achieve higher levels of abatement, the cost will increase dramatically. In the near future, specific energy conservation technologies such as dry coke quenching, exhaust gas and heat recovery equipment will be of great significance. However, taking a long term perspective, emissions reduction will rely more on the adjustment of production processes and the application of more modern large scale plants. Advanced blast furnace technology will inevitably play an important role

  20. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Haw, Mary

    2009-01-01

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO 2 -eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  1. Allowable carbon emissions for medium-to-high mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tachiiri, Kaoru; Hargreaves, Julia C.; Annan, James D.; Kawamiya, Michio [Research Inst. for Global Change, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, (Japan)], e-mail: tachiiri@jamstec.go.jp; Huntingford, Chris [Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford (United Kingdom)

    2013-11-15

    Using an ensemble of simulations with an intermediate complexity climate model and in a probabilistic framework, we estimate future ranges of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions in order to follow three medium-high mitigation concentration pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and SCP4.5 to 2.6. Uncertainty is first estimated by allowing modelled equilibrium climate sensitivity, aerosol forcing and intrinsic physical and biogeochemical processes to vary within widely accepted ranges. Results are then constrained by comparison against contemporary measurements. For both constrained and unconstrained projections, our calculated allowable emissions are close to the standard (harmonised) emission scenarios associated with these pathways. For RCP4.5, which is the most moderate scenario considered in terms of required emission abatement, then after year 2100 very low net emissions are needed to maintain prescribed year 2100 CO{sub 2} concentrations. As expected, RCP2.6 and SCP4.5 to 2.6 require more strict emission reductions. The implication of this is that direct sequestration of carbon dioxide is likely to be required for RCP4.5 or higher mitigation scenarios, to offset any minimum emissions for society to function (the 'emissions floor'). Despite large uncertainties in the physical and biogeochemical processes, constraints from model-observational comparisons support a high degree of confidence in predicting the allowable emissions consistent with a particular concentration pathway. In contrast the uncertainty in the resulting temperature range remains large. For many parameter sets, and especially for RCP2.6, the land will turn into a carbon source within the twenty first century, but the ocean will remain as a carbon sink. For land carbon storage and our modelling framework, major reductions are seen in northern high latitudes and the Amazon basin even after atmospheric CO{sub 2} is stabilised, while for ocean carbon uptake, the tropical ocean regions will be a

  2. Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

    2014-12-01

    Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

  3. Technology learning for renewable energy: Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.Winkler@uct.ac.z [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa.

  4. CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry: A scenario analysis using system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Qiang; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Huiquan; He, Peng

    2017-01-01

    China announced its promise on CO_2 emission peak. When and what level of CO_2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO_2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO_2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO_2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO_2 emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO_2 emission trend are discussed.

  5. Evaluating Potential for Large Releases from CO2 Storage Reservoirs: Analogs, Scenarios, and Modeling Needs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birkholzer, Jens; Pruess, Karsten; Lewicki, Jennifer; Tsang, Chin-Fu; Karimjee, Anhar

    2005-01-01

    While the purpose of geologic storage of CO 2 in deep saline formations is to trap greenhouse gases underground, the potential exists for CO 2 to escape from the target reservoir, migrate upward along permeable pathways, and discharge at the land surface. Such discharge is not necessarily a serious concern, as CO 2 is a naturally abundant and relatively benign gas in low concentrations. However, there is a potential risk to health, safety and environment (HSE) in the event that large localized fluxes of CO 2 were to occur at the land surface, especially where CO 2 could accumulate. In this paper, we develop possible scenarios for large CO 2 fluxes based on the analysis of natural analogues, where large releases of gas have been observed. We are particularly interested in scenarios which could generate sudden, possibly self-enhancing, or even eruptive release events. The probability for such events may be low, but the circumstances under which they might occur and potential consequences need to be evaluated in order to design appropriate site selection and risk management strategies. Numerical modeling of hypothetical test cases is needed to determine critical conditions for such events, to evaluate whether such conditions may be possible at designated storage sites, and, if applicable, to evaluate the potential HSE impacts of such events and design appropriate mitigation strategies

  6. Greenhouse gas energy scenarios for Mexico in year 2020, and mitigation potential of renewable technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sheinbaum, Claudia; Robles, Guillermo; Rodriguez V, Luis [Instituto de Ingenieria de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Massera, Omar [UNAM, Michoacan (Mexico)

    2000-07-01

    This paper presents the structure of the Mexican Energy-Emission Scenario Model (MEESM). In explains the importance of developing a bottom-up model for GHG mitigation assessment in Mexico. Also, the paper presents results of CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios for year 2020 for five renewable energy technologies: solar water heaters, geothermal, biomass, mini/micro hydro and wind power generation. The paper concludes by discussing the importance of simulation accounting bottom-up models as tools for GHG mitigation policies. [Spanish] Este articulo presenta la estructura del Modelo de Escenario de Emision de Energia Mexicano (MEESM). En el se explica la importancia de desarrollar un modelo organizacional de abajo hacia arriba para la evaluacion de la mitigacion del efecto invernadero en Mexico. El articulo presenta tambien los resultados de los escenarios de mitigacion de CO{sub 2} para el ano 2020 utilizando cinco tecnologias de energia renovable: calentadores solares de agua, geotermia, biomasa, y mini/micro generacion de energia por agua y viento. El articulo concluye con el analisis de la importancia de la simulacion tomando en cuenta modelos organizacionales de abajo hacia arriba como herramientas para las politicas de mitigacion del efecto invernadero.

  7. Potential vehicle fleet CO2 reductions and cost implications for various vehicle technology deployment scenarios in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pasaoglu, Guzay; Honselaar, Michel; Thiel, Christian

    2012-01-01

    The continuous rise in demand for road transportation has a significant effect on Europe's oil dependency and emissions of greenhouse gases. Alternative fuels and vehicle technology can mitigate these effects. This study analyses power-train deployment scenarios for passenger cars and light commercial vehicles in EU-27 until 2050. It considers European policy developments on vehicle CO 2 emissions, bio-energy mandates and reductions in the CO 2 footprint of the European energy mix and translates these into comprehensive scenarios for the road transport sector. It quantifies and assesses the potential impact of these scenarios on well-to-wheel (WtW) CO 2 emission reductions primary energy demand evolution, and cost aspects for the prospective vehicle owners. The study reveals that, under the deployed scenarios, the use of bio-fuel blends, technological learning and the deployment of hybrids, battery electric, plug-in hybrid and fuel cell vehicles can decrease WtW CO 2 emissions in EU-27 passenger road transport by 35–57% (compared to 2010 levels) and primary energy demand by 29–51 Mtoe as they would benefit from a future assumed decarbonised electricity and hydrogen mix in Europe. Learning effects can lead to acceptable payback periods for vehicle owners of electric drive vehicles. - Highlights: ► Power-train penetration scenarios for 2010–2050 passenger road transport in Europe. ► A dedicated tool is developed to analyse H 2 production and distribution mix till 2050. ► Alternative vehicles can drastically reduce CO 2 emissions and energy demand. ► Electric vehicles could become cost competitive to conventional vehicles by 2030. ► Policies needed to create adequate momentum and guarantee decarbonised transport.

  8. Climate mitigation scenarios of drained peat soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasimir Klemedtsson, Åsa; Coria, Jessica; He, Hongxing; Liu, Xiangping; Nordén, Anna

    2014-05-01

    The national inventory reports (NIR) submitted to the UNFCCC show Sweden - which as many other countries has wetlands where parts have been drained for agriculture and forestry purposes, - to annually emit 12 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents, which is more GHG'es than industrial energy use release in Sweden. Similar conditions can be found in other northern countries, having cool and wet conditions, naturally promoting peat accumulation, and where land use management over the last centuries have promoted draining activities. These drained peatland, though covering only 2% of the land area, have emissions corresponding to 20% of the total reported NIR emissions. This substantial emission contribution, however, is hidden within the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector (LULUCF) where the forest Carbon uptake is even larger, which causes the peat soil emissions become invisible. The only drained soil emission accounted in the Swedish Kyoto reporting is the N2O emission from agricultural drained organic soils of the size 0.5 million tonnes CO2e yr-1. This lack of visibility has made incentives for land use change and management neither implemented nor suggested, however with large potential. Rewetting has the potential to decrease soil mineralization, why CO2 and N2O emissions are mitigated. However if the soil becomes very wet CH4 emission will increase together with hampered plant growth. By ecological modeling, using the CoupModel the climate change mitigation potential have been estimated for four different land use scenarios; 1, Drained peat soil with Spruce (business as usual scenario), 2, raised ground water level to 20 cm depth and Willow plantation, 3, raised ground water level to 10 cm depth and Reed Canary Grass, and 4, rewetting to an average water level in the soil surface with recolonizing wetland plants and mosses. We calculate the volume of biomass production per year, peat decomposition, N2O emission together with nitrate and DOC

  9. Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A

    2012-01-01

    The challenges of mitigating nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions are substantially different from those for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ), because nitrogen (N) is essential for food production, and over 80% of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are from the agricultural sector. Here I use a model of emission factors of N 2 O to demonstrate the magnitude of improvements in agriculture and industrial sectors and changes in dietary habits that would be necessary to match the four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) now being considered in the fifth assessment report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Stabilizing atmospheric N 2 O by 2050, consistent with the most aggressive of the RCP mitigation scenarios, would require about 50% reductions in emission factors in all sectors and about a 50% reduction in mean per capita meat consumption in the developed world. Technologies exist to achieve such improved efficiencies, but overcoming social, economic, and political impediments for their adoption and for changes in dietary habits will present large challenges. (letter)

  10. Renewable energy utilization and CO2 mitigation in the power sector: A case study in selected GMS countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kong Pagnarith

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Renewable energy is an alternative resource to substitute fossil fuels. Currently, the share of renewable energy inpower generation is very low. The selected Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS, namely, Cambodia, Laos, Thailand andVietnam is a region having abundant of renewable energy resources. Though these countries have a high potential of renewableenergy utilization, they are still highly dependent on the imported fossil fuels for electricity generation. The less contributionof renewable energy in the power sector in the region is due to the high cost of technologies. Renewable energytechnology cannot compete with the conventional power plant. However, in order to promote renewable energy utilizationand reduce dependency on imported fossil fuel as well as to mitigate CO2 emissions from the power sector, this study introducesfour renewable energy technologies, namely, biomass, wind, solar PV, and geothermal power, for substitution of conventionaltechnologies. To make the renewable energy competitive to the fossil fuels, incentives in terms of carbon credit of20$/ton-ne CO2 are taken into account. Results are analyzed by using the Long-Range Energy Alternative Planning System(LEAP modeling. Results of analyses reveal that in the renewable energy (RE scenario the biomass power, wind, solarphotovoltaics, and geothermal would contribute in electricity supply for 5.47 GW in the region, accounted for 3.5% in 2030.The RE scenario with carbon credits could mitigate CO2 emissions at about 36.0 million tonne at lower system cost whencompared to the business-as-usual scenario.

  11. Geochemical modelling of worst-case leakage scenarios at potential CO2-storage sites - CO2 and saline water contamination of drinking water aquifers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Szabó, Zsuzsanna; Edit Gál, Nóra; Kun, Éva; Szőcs, Teodóra; Falus, György

    2017-04-01

    Carbon Capture and Storage is a transitional technology to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and to mitigate climate change. Following the implementation and enforcement of the 2009/31/EC Directive in the Hungarian legislation, the Geological and Geophysical Institute of Hungary is required to evaluate the potential CO2 geological storage structures of the country. Basic assessment of these saline water formations has been already performed and the present goal is to extend the studies to the whole of the storage complex and consider the protection of fresh water aquifers of the neighbouring area even in unlikely scenarios when CO2 injection has a much more regional effect than planned. In this work, worst-case scenarios are modelled to understand the effects of CO2 or saline water leaks into drinking water aquifers. The dissolution of CO2 may significantly change the pH of fresh water which induces mineral dissolution and precipitation in the aquifer and therefore, changes in solution composition and even rock porosity. Mobilization of heavy metals may also be of concern. Brine migration from CO2 reservoir and replacement of fresh water in the shallower aquifer may happen due to pressure increase as a consequence of CO2 injection. The saline water causes changes in solution composition which may also induce mineral reactions. The modelling of the above scenarios has happened at several methodological levels such as equilibrium batch, kinetic batch and kinetic reactive transport simulations. All of these have been performed by PHREEQC using the PHREEQC.DAT thermodynamic database. Kinetic models use equations and kinetic rate parameters from the USGS report of Palandri and Kharaka (2004). Reactive transport modelling also considers estimated fluid flow and dispersivity of the studied formation. Further input parameters are the rock and the original ground water compositions of the aquifers and a range of gas-phase CO2 or brine replacement ratios. Worst-case scenarios

  12. Technology learning for renewable energy. Implications for South Africa's long-term mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison [Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town, Private Bag, Rondebosch 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJ Carew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa)

    2009-11-15

    Technology learning can make a significant difference to renewable energy as a mitigation option in South Africa's electricity sector. This article considers scenarios implemented in a Markal energy model used for mitigation analysis. It outlines the empirical evidence that unit costs of renewable energy technologies decline, considers the theoretical background and how this can be implemented in modeling. Two scenarios are modelled, assuming 27% and 50% of renewable electricity by 2050, respectively. The results show a dramatic shift in the mitigation costs. In the less ambitious scenario, instead of imposing a cost of Rand 52/t CO{sub 2}-eq (at 10% discount rate), reduced costs due to technology learning turn renewables into negative cost option. Our results show that technology learning flips the costs, saving R143. At higher penetration rate, the incremental costs added beyond the base case decline from R92 per ton to R3. Including assumptions about technology learning turns renewable from a higher-cost mitigation option to one close to zero. We conclude that a future world in which global investment in renewables drives down unit costs makes it a much more cost-effective and sustainable mitigation option in South Africa. (author)

  13. Costs of mitigating CO2 emissions from passenger aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schäfer, Andreas W.; Evans, Antony D.; Reynolds, Tom G.; Dray, Lynnette

    2016-04-01

    In response to strong growth in air transportation CO2 emissions, governments and industry began to explore and implement mitigation measures and targets in the early 2000s. However, in the absence of rigorous analyses assessing the costs for mitigating CO2 emissions, these policies could be economically wasteful. Here we identify the cost-effectiveness of CO2 emission reductions from narrow-body aircraft, the workhorse of passenger air transportation. We find that in the US, a combination of fuel burn reduction strategies could reduce the 2012 level of life cycle CO2 emissions per passenger kilometre by around 2% per year to mid-century. These intensity reductions would occur at zero marginal costs for oil prices between US$50-100 per barrel. Even larger reductions are possible, but could impose extra costs and require the adoption of biomass-based synthetic fuels. The extent to which these intensity reductions will translate into absolute emissions reductions will depend on fleet growth.

  14. Using performance indicators to reduce cost uncertainty of China's CO2 mitigation goals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Yuan

    2013-01-01

    Goals on absolute emissions and intensity play key roles in CO 2 mitigation. However, like cap-and-trade policies with price uncertainty, they suffer from significant uncertainty in abatement costs. This article examines whether an indicator could be established to complement CO 2 mitigation goals and help reduce cost uncertainty with a particular focus on China. Performance indicators on CO 2 emissions per unit of energy consumption could satisfy three criteria: compared with the mitigation goals, (i) they are more closely associated with active mitigation efforts and (ii) their baselines have more stable projections from historical trajectories. (iii) Their abatement costs are generally higher than other mitigation methods, particularly energy efficiency and conservation. Performance indicators could be used in the following way: if a CO 2 goal on absolute emissions or intensity is attained, the performance indicator should still reach a lower threshold as a cost floor. If the goal cannot be attained, an upper performance threshold should be achieved as a cost ceiling. The narrower cost uncertainty may encourage wider and greater mitigation efforts. - Highlights: ► CO 2 emissions per unit of energy consumption could act as performance indicators. ► Performance indicators are more closely related to active mitigation activities. ► Performance indicators have more stable historical trajectories. ► Abatement costs are higher for performance indicators than for other activities. ► Performance thresholds could reduce the cost uncertainty of CO 2 mitigation goals.

  15. Energy efficiency and CO_2 mitigation potential of the Turkish iron and steel industry using the LEAP (long-range energy alternatives planning) system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ates, Seyithan A.

    2015-01-01

    With the assistance of the LEAP (long-range energy alternatives planning) energy modeling tool, this study explores the energy efficiency and CO_2 emission reduction potential of the iron and steel industry in Turkey. With a share of 35%, the steel and iron industry is considered as the most energy-consuming sector in Turkey. The study explores that the energy intensity rate can be lowered by 13%, 38% and 51% in SEI (slow-speed energy efficiency improvement), AEI (accelerating energy efficiency improvement) and CPT (cleaner production and technology scenario) scenarios, respectively. Particularly the projected aggregated energy savings of the scenarios CPT and AES are very promising with saving rates of 33.7% and 23% respectively. Compared to baseline scenarios, energy efficiency improvements correspond to economic potential of 0.1 billion dollars for SEI, 1.25 dollars for AEI and 1.8 billion dollars for CPT scenarios annually. Concerning GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions, in 2030 the iron and steel industry in Turkey is estimated to produce 34.9 MtCO_2 in BAU (business-as-usual scenario), 32.5 MtCO_2 in SEI, 24.6 MtCO_2 in AEI and 14.5 MtCO_2 in CPT a scenario which corresponds to savings of 9%–39%. The study reveals that energy consumption and GHG emissions of the iron and steel industry can be lowered significantly if the necessary measures are implemented. It is expected that this study will fill knowledge gaps pertaining to energy efficiency potential in Turkish energy intensive industries and help stakeholders in energy intensive industries to realize the potential for energy efficiency and GHG mitigation. - Highlights: • This paper explores energy efficiency potential of iron and Steel industry in Turkey. • We applied the LEAP modeling to forecast future developments. • Four different scenarios have been developed for the LEAP modeling. • There is a huge potential for energy efficiency and mitigation of GHG emissions.

  16. Japan's long-term energy outlook to 2050: Estimation for the potential of massive CO2 mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi

    2010-09-15

    This paper analyzes Japan's energy outlook and CO2 emissions to 2050. Scenario analysis reveals that Japan's CO2 emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 58% from the emissions in 2005. For achieving this massive mitigation, it is required to reduce primary energy supply per GDP by 60% in 2050 from the 2005 level and to expand the share of non-fossil fuel in total supply to 50% by 2050. Concerning power generation mix, nuclear will account for 60%, renewable for 30% in 2050. For massive CO2 abatement, Japan should tackle technological and economic challenges for large-scale deployment of advanced technologies.

  17. Energy and emission scenarios for China in the 21st century - exploration of baseline development and mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vuuren, Detlef van; Zhou Fengqi; Vries, Bert de; Jiang Kejun; Graveland, Cor; Li Yun

    2003-01-01

    In this paper, we have used the simulation model IMAGE/TIMER to develop a set of energy and emission scenarios for China between 1995 and 2100, based on the global baseline scenarios published by IPCC. The purpose of the study was to explore possible baseline developments and available options to mitigate emissions. The two main baseline scenarios of the study differ, among others, in the openness of the Chinese economy and in economic growth, but both indicate a rapid growth in carbon emissions (2.0% and 2.6% per year in the 2000-2050 period). The baseline scenario analysis also shows that an orientation on environmental sustainability can not only reduce other environmental pressures but also lower carbon emissions. In the mitigation analysis, a large number of options has been evaluated in terms of impacts on investments, user costs, fuel imports costs and emissions. It is found that a large potential exists to mitigate carbon emissions in China, among others in the form of energy efficiency improvement (with large co-benefits) and measures in the electricity sector. Combining all options considered, it appears to be possible to reduce emissions compared to the baseline scenarios by 50%

  18. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhar, Subash; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2015-01-01

    Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible. -- Highlights: •India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change. •Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security. •Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 °C stabilisation. •Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. •Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation

  19. Social Learning and the Mitigation of Transport CO2 Emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maha Al Sabbagh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Social learning, a key factor in fostering behavioural change and improving decision making, is considered necessary for achieving substantial CO2 emission reductions. However, no empirical evidence exists on how it contributes to mitigation of transport CO2 emissions, or the extent of its influence on decision making. This paper presents evidence addressing these knowledge gaps. Social learning-oriented workshops were conducted to gather the views and preferences of participants from the general public in Bahrain on selected transport CO2 mitigation measures. Social preferences were inputted into a deliberative decision-making model and then compared to a previously prepared participative model. An analysis of the results revealed that social learning could contribute to changes in views, preferences and acceptance regarding mitigation measures, and these changes were statistically significant at an alpha level of 0.1. Thus, while social learning evidently plays an important role in the decision-making process, the impacts of using other participatory techniques should also be explored.

  20. CO2 emissions and mitigation potential in China's ammonia industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Wenji; Zhu Bing; Li Qiang; Ma Tieju; Hu Shanying; Griffy-Brown, Charla

    2010-01-01

    Significant pressure from increasing CO 2 emissions and energy consumption in China's industrialization process has highlighted a need to understand and mitigate the sources of these emissions. Ammonia production, as one of the most important fundamental industries in China, represents those heavy industries that contribute largely to this sharp increasing trend. In the country with the largest population in the world, ammonia output has undergone fast growth spurred by increasing demand for fertilizer of food production since 1950s. However, various types of technologies implemented in the industry make ammonia plants in China operate with huge differences in both energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. With consideration of these unique features, this paper attempts to estimate the amount of CO 2 emission from China's ammonia production, and analyze the potential for carbon mitigation in the industry. Based on the estimation, related policy implications and measures required to realize the potential for mitigation are also discussed.

  1. Risk assessment of mitigated domino scenarios in process facilities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Landucci, Gabriele; Necci, Amos; Antonioni, Giacomo; Argenti, Francesca; Cozzani, Valerio

    2017-01-01

    The propagation of accidents among process units may lead to severe cascading events or domino effects with catastrophic consequences. Prevention, mitigation and management of domino scenarios is of utmost importance and may be achieved in industrial facilities through the adoption of multiple safety layers. The present study was aimed at developing an innovative methodology to address the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of domino scenarios accounting for the presence and role of safety barriers. Based on the expected performance of safety barriers, a dedicated event tree analysis allowed the identification and the assessment of the frequencies of the different end-point events deriving from unmitigated and partially mitigated domino chains. Specific criteria were introduced in consequence analysis to consider the mitigation effects of end-point scenarios deriving from safety barriers. Individual and societal risk indexes were calculated accounting for safety barriers and the mitigated scenarios that may result from their actions. The application of the methodology to case-studies of industrial interest proved the importance of introducing a specific systematic and quantitative analysis of safety barrier performance when addressing escalation leading to domino effect. - Highlights: • A methodology was developed to account for safety barrier performance in escalation prevention. • The methodology allows quantitative assessment accounting for safety barrier performance. • A detailed analysis of transient mitigated scenarios is allowed by the developed procedure. • The procedure allows accounting for safety barrier performance in QRA of domino scenarios. • An important reduction in the risk due to domino scenarios is evidenced when considering safety barriers.

  2. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  3. Assessing CO2 Mitigation Options Utilizing Detailed Electricity Characteristics and Including Renewable Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bensaida, K.; Alie, Colin; Elkamel, A.; Almansoori, A.

    2017-08-01

    This paper presents a novel techno-economic optimization model for assessing the effectiveness of CO2 mitigation options for the electricity generation sub-sector that includes renewable energy generation. The optimization problem was formulated as a MINLP model using the GAMS modeling system. The model seeks the minimization of the power generation costs under CO2 emission constraints by dispatching power from low CO2 emission-intensity units. The model considers the detailed operation of the electricity system to effectively assess the performance of GHG mitigation strategies and integrates load balancing, carbon capture and carbon taxes as methods for reducing CO2 emissions. Two case studies are discussed to analyze the benefits and challenges of the CO2 reduction methods in the electricity system. The proposed mitigations options would not only benefit the environment, but they will as well improve the marginal cost of producing energy which represents an advantage for stakeholders.

  4. From carbonization to decarbonization?-Past trends and future scenarios for China's CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steckel, Jan Christoph; Jakob, Michael; Marschinski, Robert; Luderer, Gunnar

    2011-01-01

    Along the lines of the Kaya identity, we perform a decomposition analysis of historical and projected emissions data for China. We compare the results with reduction requirements implied by globally cost-effective mitigation scenarios and official Chinese policy targets. For the years 1971-2000 we find that the impact of high economic growth on emissions was partially compensated by a steady fall in energy intensity. However, the end - and even reversal - of this downward trend, along with a rising carbon intensity of energy, resulted in rapid emission growth during 2000-2007. By applying an innovative enhanced Kaya-decomposition method, we also show how the persistent increase in the use of coal has caused carbon intensity to rise throughout the entire time-horizon of the analysis. These insights are then compared to model scenarios for future energy system developments generated by the ReMIND-R model. The analysis reaffirms China's indispensable role in global efforts to implement any of three exemplary stabilization targets (400, 450, or 500 ppm CO 2 -only), and underscore the increasing importance of carbon intensity for the more ambitious targets. Finally, we compare China's official targets for energy intensity and carbon intensity of GDP to projections for global cost-effective stabilization scenarios, finding them to be roughly compatible in the short-to-mid-term. - Highlights: → An extended Kaya-decomposition is applied to historical data and ReMIND-R scenario results for China. → Reversing a historic trend, energy intensity has increased in recent years. → The contribution of coal in increasing carbon intensity and emissions has been constant in the past. → Decarbonization becomes increasingly important with increasingly ambitious climate targets. → Chinese targets for carbon intensity of GDP are in line with a 450 ppm CO 2 -only stabilization scenario.

  5. Energy saving and CO2 mitigation through restructuring Jordan's transportation sector: The diesel passenger cars scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Al-Hinti, I.; Al-Ghandoor, A.; Akash, B.; Abu-Nada, E.

    2007-01-01

    The transportation sector is responsible for 37% of the total final energy consumption in Jordan, with passenger cars taking a share of 57% in this sector. Improvement of the energy efficiency of the transportation sector can help in alleviating socio-economic pressures resulting from the inflating fuel bill and in lowering the relatively high CO 2 emission intensity. Current legislations mandate that all passenger cars operating in Jordan are to be powered with spark ignition engines using gasoline fuel. This paper examines potential benefits that can be achieved through the introduction of diesel cars to the passenger cars market in Jordan. Three scenarios are suggested for implementation and investigated with a forecasting model on the basis of local and global trends over the period 2007-2027. It is demonstrated that introducing diesel passenger cars can slow down the growth of energy consumption in the transportation sector resulting in significant savings in the national fuel bill. It is also shown that this is an effective and feasible option for cutting down CO 2 emissions

  6. Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study

    OpenAIRE

    Prof Anil Markandya, PhD; Jon Sampedro, MSc; Steven J Smith, PhD; Rita Van Dingenen, PhD; Cristina Pizarro-Irizar, PhD; Prof Iñaki Arto, PhD; Prof Mikel González-Eguino, PhD

    2018-01-01

    Background: Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which ...

  7. Electric Vehicle Scenarios for India: Implications for mitigation and development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Bhaskar, Kalyan

    2014-01-01

    to infrastructure and policies. While the literature on EVs has focused more on the role of electric cars, it could be electric two-wheelers which could make early headway, as is the case in China where nearly 120 million such vehicles had been sold by the end of 2012. Three scenarios (Business as Usual (BAU......The transport sector globally is overly dependent on liquid fossil fuels. Electric vehicles (EVs) are touted as a way of diversifying the fuel mix and helping to reduce dependence on fossil fuels. There could also be other co-benefits of EVs, such as improved energy security, decarbonising...... of the electricity sector, CO2 mitigation and reduction in local air pollution. The Indian government has recently launched a national electricity mobility mission to promote EVs. There is, however, much uncertainty in terms of the penetration of EVs in the transport sector, particularly those related...

  8. Assessment of Alternative Scenarios for CO2 Reduction Potential in the Residential Building Sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Young-Sun Jeong

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The South Korean government announced its goals of reducing the country’s CO2 emissions by up to 30% below the business as usual (BAU projections by 2020 in 2009 and 37% below BAU projections by 2030 in 2015. This paper explores the potential energy savings and reduction in CO2 emissions offered by residential building energy efficiency policies and plans in South Korea. The current and future energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the residential building were estimated using an energy–environment model from 2010 to 2030. The business as usual scenario is based on the energy consumption characteristic of residential buildings using the trends related to socio-economic prospects and the number of dwellings. The alternative scenarios took into account energy efficiency for new residential buildings (scenario I, refurbishment of existing residential buildings (scenario II, use of highly efficient boilers (scenario III, and use of a solar thermal energy system (scenario IV. The results show that energy consumption in the residential building sector will increase by 33% between 2007 and 2030 in the BAU scenario. Maximum reduction in CO2 emissions in the residential building sector of South Korea was observed by 2030 in scenario I. In each alternative scenario analysis, CO2 emissions were 12.9% lower than in the business as usual scenario by the year 2030.

  9. Global and regional ocean carbon uptake and climate change: sensitivity to a substantial mitigation scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vichi, Marcello; Masina, Simona; Navarra, Antonio [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Manzini, Elisa [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Fogli, Pier Giuseppe [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Alessandri, Andrea [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); ENEA, Rome (Italy); Patara, Lavinia [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Leibniz Institute of Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR), Kiel (Germany); Scoccimarro, Enrico [Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy)

    2011-11-15

    Under future scenarios of business-as-usual emissions, the ocean storage of anthropogenic carbon is anticipated to decrease because of ocean chemistry constraints and positive feedbacks in the carbon-climate dynamics, whereas it is still unknown how the oceanic carbon cycle will respond to more substantial mitigation scenarios. To evaluate the natural system response to prescribed atmospheric ''target'' concentrations and assess the response of the ocean carbon pool to these values, 2 centennial projection simulations have been performed with an Earth System Model that includes a fully coupled carbon cycle, forced in one case with a mitigation scenario and the other with the SRES A1B scenario. End of century ocean uptake with the mitigation scenario is projected to return to the same magnitude of carbon fluxes as simulated in 1960 in the Pacific Ocean and to lower values in the Atlantic. With A1B, the major ocean basins are instead projected to decrease the capacity for carbon uptake globally as found with simpler carbon cycle models, while at the regional level the response is contrasting. The model indicates that the equatorial Pacific may increase the carbon uptake rates in both scenarios, owing to enhancement of the biological carbon pump evidenced by an increase in Net Community Production (NCP) following changes in the subsurface equatorial circulation and enhanced iron availability from extratropical regions. NCP is a proxy of the bulk organic carbon made available to the higher trophic levels and potentially exportable from the surface layers. The model results indicate that, besides the localized increase in the equatorial Pacific, the NCP of lower trophic levels in the northern Pacific and Atlantic oceans is projected to be halved with respect to the current climate under a substantial mitigation scenario at the end of the twenty-first century. It is thus suggested that changes due to cumulative carbon emissions up to present and the

  10. Health co-benefits from air pollution and mitigation costs of the Paris Agreement: a modelling study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markandya, Anil; Sampedro, Jon; Smith, Steven J; Van Dingenen, Rita; Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina; Arto, Iñaki; González-Eguino, Mikel

    2018-03-01

    Although the co-benefits from addressing problems related to both climate change and air pollution have been recognised, there is not much evidence comparing the mitigation costs and economic benefits of air pollution reduction for alternative approaches to meeting greenhouse gas targets. We analysed the extent to which health co-benefits would compensate the mitigation cost of achieving the targets of the Paris climate agreement (2°C and 1·5°C) under different scenarios in which the emissions abatement effort is shared between countries in accordance with three established equity criteria. Our study had three stages. First, we used an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), to investigate the emission (greenhouse gases and air pollutants) pathways and abatement costs of a set of scenarios with varying temperature objectives (nationally determined contributions, 2°C, or 1·5°C) and approaches to the distribution of climate change methods (capability, constant emission ratios, and equal per capita). The resulting emissions pathways were transferred to an air quality model (TM5-FASST) to estimate the concentrations of particulate matter and ozone in the atmosphere and the resulting associated premature deaths and morbidity. We then applied a monetary value to these health impacts by use of a term called the value of statistical life and compared these values with those of the mitigation costs calculated from GCAM, both globally and regionally. Our analysis looked forward to 2050 in accordance with the socioeconomic narrative Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2. The health co-benefits substantially outweighed the policy cost of achieving the target for all of the scenarios that we analysed. In some of the mitigation strategies, the median co-benefits were double the median costs at a global level. The ratio of health co-benefit to mitigation cost ranged from 1·4 to 2·45, depending on the scenario. At the regional level, the costs of

  11. Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases - Data Annexes

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — Marginal abatement curves (MAC) can be downloaded as data annexes to the Global Mitigation of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases report. This data allows for improved...

  12. The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.; Isaac, M.; Kundzewicz, Z.W.; Arnell, N.; Barker, T.; Criqui, P.; Berkhout, F.; Hilderink, H.; Hinkel, J.; Hof, Andries; Kitous, A.; Kram, T.; Mechler, R.; Scrieciu, S.

    2011-01-01

    Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 °C by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation

  13. Fuel demand projections and comparison of CO2 mitigation scenarios for Brazil until 2035; Projecoes de demanda de combustiveis e comparacao entre cenarios de mitigacao das emissoes de CO2 para o Brasil ate 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ribas, Rodrigo Pacheco; Araujo, Maria Silvia Muylaert de; Freitas, Marcos Aurelio Vasconcelo de; Rosa, Luiz Pinguelli; Silva, Neilton Fidelis da; Campos, Antonio F. [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil); Campos, Christiano Pires de; Gutierres, Ricardo [Petroleo Brasileiro S.A (CENPES/PETROBRAS), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Centro de Pesquisa e Desenvolvimento; Lampreia, Joao [Agencia Internacional de Energia (IEA), Paris (France)

    2012-07-01

    This article results from work undertaken by the technical cooperation between the Leopoldo Americo Miguez de Mello Research and Development Center of PETROBRAS (CENPES/PETROBRAS) and the International Virtual Institute of Global Change (IVIG/Coppe/UFRJ), evaluates how the Oil Sector and the fuels demand (petroleum and natural gas) from Brazil will be impacted in the short, medium and long term for current climate change mitigation policies, as for possible proposals to the second period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012). Thus, emission scenarios were developed by 2035 as among the main greenhouse gases (GHG), carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), considering data from the World Energy Outlook 2010 / International Energy Agency (IEA), the Second National Inventory of Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions, from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation (MCTI) and the Ten Year Plan for Energy Expansion (PDE), from the Energy Research Company (EPE) / Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME). (author)

  14. The effectiveness of energy service demand reduction: A scenario analysis of global climate change mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fujimori, S.; Kainuma, M.; Masui, T.; Hasegawa, T.; Dai, H.

    2014-01-01

    A reduction of energy service demand is a climate mitigation option, but its effectiveness has never been quantified. We quantify the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and industry sectors using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model for the period 2015–2050 under various scenarios. There were two major findings. First, a 25% energy service demand reduction in the building, transport, and basic material industry sectors would reduce the GDP loss induced by climate mitigation from 4.0% to 3.0% and from 1.2% to 0.7% in 2050 under the 450 ppm and 550 ppm CO 2 equivalent concentration stabilization scenarios, respectively. Second, the effectiveness of a reduction in the building sector's energy service demand would be higher than those of the other sectors at the same rate of the energy service demand reduction. Furthermore, we also conducted a sensitivity analysis of different socioeconomic conditions, and the climate mitigation target was found to be a key determinant of the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction measures. Therefore, more certain climate mitigation targets would be useful for the decision makers who design energy service demand reduction measures. - Highlights: • The effectiveness of a reduction in energy service demand is quantified. • A 25% reduction in energy service demand would be equivalent to 1% of GDP in 2050. • Stringent mitigation increases the effectiveness of energy service demand reduction. • Effectiveness of a reduction in energy demand service is higher in the building sector

  15. Role of technologies in energy-related CO2 mitigation in China within a climate-protection world: A scenarios analysis using REMIND

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Shuwei; Bauer, Nico; Luderer, Gunnar; Kriegler, Elmar

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The augmented REMIND model is used to study the role of energy technologies under a carbon tax. • The scale and timing of fossil fuels with CCS, nuclear, and renewables are examined. • CCS is important but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited. • The effectiveness of nuclear is strongly linked to its cost performance. • Renewable energy is a long-term mitigation option. - Abstract: In a world with the need of climate protection through emission reduction, China’s domestic mitigation will be put on the national agenda. The large-scale deployment of innovative technologies induced by climate policies is a key determinant for reducing emissions in an effective and efficient manner. A distinguishing feature of the Chinese energy sector (especially electricity generation), is that investment costs are significantly lower than in other world regions. Represented in the methodological framework of the augmented REMIND model, three promising mitigation technologies (also known as technology clusters) in the electricity sector: CCS with advanced coal-generation technologies, nuclear, and renewables are the focus of this study. The scenarios are designed to analyze the roles of these technologies and their associated economic impacts under a climate policy (i.e., a carbon tax). Our results indicate that: (1)Technology policies improving the techno-economic features of low-carbon technologies are insufficient to restrain China’s increasing emissions. (2)Carbon-pricing policies can effectively reduce emissions by making low-carbon options more competitive than conventional fossil fuel alternatives. In the global carbon tax regime framed in this paper, China’s mitigation potential is larger than that of any of other region and the peak of emissions occurs earlier (by 2020) and is 50% lower than in the BASE scenario. (3)CCS is important, but the window of opportunity for its deployment is limited to the near- to mid-term future. It

  16. Social Learning and the Mitigation of Transport CO2 Emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Maha Al Sabbagh

    2017-01-01

    Social learning, a key factor in fostering behavioural change and improving decision making, is considered necessary for achieving substantial CO2 emission reductions. However, no empirical evidence exists on how it contributes to mitigation of transport CO2 emissions, or the extent of its influence on decision making. This paper presents evidence addressing these knowledge gaps. Social learning-oriented workshops were conducted to gather the views and preferences of participants from the gen...

  17. Study on CO2 emission reduction using ENPEP in Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moon, K. H.; Kim, S. S.; Song, K. D.; Im, C. Y.

    2003-01-01

    ENPEP was used to analyze the role of nuclear power in mitigating carbon emission in power generation sector. In this study, base scenario reflects business as usual case in Korea. Additional two scenarios were established. One stands for fuel switch scenario, where nuclear power plants scheduled to be introduced after 2008 were assumed to be replaced by Coal Power Plant, the other one is established to see the impact of carbon tax. In this scenario carbon tax(50$/ton-C0 2 ) is imposed on coal power plants from 2008. It is resulted that fuel switch from nuclear to coal in power generation sector has a great effect on CO 2 emission, while carbon tax imposition makes a slight contribution to the reduction of CO 2 emission. These findings mean that the role of nuclear power in Korea is important in view of the GHG mitigation

  18. Impact of short-lived non-CO2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Meinshausen, Malte; Schaeffer, Michiel; Knutti, Reto

    2015-01-01

    Limiting global warming to any level requires limiting the total amount of CO 2 emissions, or staying within a CO 2 budget. Here we assess how emissions from short-lived non-CO 2 species like methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black-carbon, and sulphates influence these CO 2 budgets. Our default case, which assumes mitigation in all sectors and of all gases, results in a CO 2 budget between 2011–2100 of 340 PgC for a >66% chance of staying below 2°C, consistent with the assessment of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme variations of air-pollutant emissions from black-carbon and sulphates influence this budget by about ±5%. In the hypothetical case of no methane or HFCs mitigation—which is unlikely when CO 2 is stringently reduced—the budgets would be much smaller (40% or up to 60%, respectively). However, assuming very stringent CH 4 mitigation as a sensitivity case, CO 2 budgets could be 25% higher. A limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions remains critical for temperature targets. Even a 25% higher CO 2 budget still means peaking global emissions in the next two decades, and achieving net zero CO 2 emissions during the third quarter of the 21st century. The leverage we have to affect the CO 2 budget by targeting non-CO 2 diminishes strongly along with CO 2 mitigation, because these are partly linked through economic and technological factors. (letter)

  19. Atmospheric and geological CO2 damage costs in energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smekens, K.E.L.; Van der Zwaan, B.C.C.

    2006-05-01

    Geological carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) is currently seriously considered for addressing, in the near term, the problem of climate change. CCS technology is available today and is expected to become an increasingly affordable CO2 abatement alternative. Whereas the rapidly growing scientific literature on CCS as well as experimental and commercial practice demonstrate the technological and economic feasibility of implementing this clean fossil fuel option on a large scale, relatively little attention has been paid so far to the risks and environmental externalities of geological storage of CO2. This paper assesses the effects of including CCS damage costs in a long-term energy scenario analysis for Europe. An external cost sensitivity analysis is performed with a bottom-up energy technology model that accounts not only for CCS technologies but also for their external costs. Our main conclusion is that in a business-as-usual scenario (i.e. without climate change intervention or externality internalisation), CCS technologies are likely to be deployed at least to some extent, mainly in the power generation sector, given the economic benefits of opportunities such as enhanced coal bed methane, oil and gas recovery. Under a strict climate (CO2 emissions) constraint, CCS technologies are deployed massively. With the simultaneous introduction of both CO2 and CCS taxation in the power sector, designed to internalise the external atmospheric and geological effects of CO2 emissions and storage, respectively, we find that CCS will only be developed if the climate change damage costs are at least of the order of 100 euro/t CO2 or the CO2 storage damage costs not more than a few euro/t CO2. When the internalised climate change damage costs are as high as 67 euro/t CO2, the expensive application of CCS to biomass-fuelled power plants (with negative net CO2 emissions) proves the most effective CCS alternative to reduce CO2 emissions, rather than CCS applied to fossil

  20. On the Assessment of the CO2 Mitigation Potential of Woody Biomass

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Víctor Codina Gironès

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Woody biomass, a renewable energy resource, accumulates solar energy in form of carbon hydrates produced from atmospheric CO2 and H2O. It is, therefore, a means of CO2 mitigation for society as long as the biogenic carbon released to the atmosphere when delivering its energy content by oxidation can be accumulated again during growth of new woody biomass. Even when considering the complete life cycle, usually, only a small amount of fossil CO2 is emitted. However, woody biomass availability is limited by land requirement and, therefore, it is important to maximize its CO2 mitigation potential in the energy system. In this study, we consider woody biomass not only as a source of renewable energy but also as a source of carbon for seasonal storage of solar electricity. A first analysis is carried out based on the mitigation effect of woody biomass usage pathways, which is the avoided fossil CO2 emissions obtained by using one unit of woody biomass to provide energy services, as alternative to fossil fuels. Results show that woody biomass usage pathways can achieve up to 9.55 times the mitigation effect obtained through combustion of woody biomass, which is taken as a reference. Applying energy system modeling and multi-objective optimization techniques, the role of woody biomass technological choices in the energy transition is then analyzed at a country scale. The analysis is applied to Switzerland, demonstrating that the use of woody biomass in gasification–methanation systems, coupled with electrolysers and combined with an intensive deployment of PV panels and efficient technologies, could reduce the natural gas imports to zero. Electrolysers are used to boost synthetic natural gas production by hydrogen injection into the methanation reaction. The hydrogen used is produced when there is excess of solar electricity. The efficient technologies, such as heat pumps and battery electric vehicles, allow increasing the overall efficiency of the

  1. Mitigation options : flare and vent mitigation undercuts CCS in trimming CO{sub 2} emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, M.

    2010-11-15

    This article reported on a study aimed at reducing flaring and venting associated with conventional heavy oil production. In particular, the study analyzed parameters such as the variability in flare volumes, flare gas composition and statistical distribution of volumes flared. The objective was to determine the most viable economic solution to reducing flare and vent volumes. In particular, the study focused on various scenarios to tie-in currently flared and vented solution gas. Solution gas volume variability was found to be wide ranging, with 90 percent of sites handling less than 32 percent of the volume and 10 percent of the sites handling more than two-thirds of the volume. Composition also varied, and was difficult to measure. One scenario assumed that wells were unconnected and had to be tied in with their own compressors and pipe, while another scenario considered the wells to be individual wells. A first comprehensive analysis of flare and vent mitigation opportunities in Alberta revealed that tying in solution gas at battery sites could create emissions reductions at much lower cost than the province's carbon capture and storage (CCS) plan. The study of mitigation options primarily targeted the conventional heavy oil belt of eastern Alberta near Lloydminster. The most optimistic scenario included a $15 per tonne carbon credit, that up to 55 megatonnes could be trimmed over 10 years at no cost to the industry.1 fig.

  2. ENHANCED PRACTICAL PHOTOSYNTHETIC CO2 MITIGATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dr. David J. Bayless; Dr. Morgan Vis; Dr. Gregory Kremer; Dr. Michael Prudich; Dr. Keith Cooksey; Dr. Jeff Muhs

    2001-01-16

    This is the first quarterly report of the project Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO{sub 2} Mitigation. The official project start date, 10/02/2000, was delayed until 10/31/2000 due to an intellectual property dispute that was resolved. However, the delay forced a subsequent delay in subcontracting with Montana State University, which then delayed obtaining a sampling permit from Yellowstone National Park. However, even with these delays, the project moved forward with some success. Accomplishments for this quarter include: Culturing of thermophilic organisms from Yellowstone; Testing of mesophilic organisms in extreme CO{sub 2} conditions; Construction of a second test bed for additional testing; Purchase of a total carbon analyzer dedicated to the project; Construction of a lighting container for Oak Ridge National Laboratory optical fiber testing; Modified lighting of existing test box to provide more uniform distribution; Testing of growth surface adhesion and properties; Experimentation on water-jet harvesting techniques; and Literature review underway regarding uses of biomass after harvesting. Plans for next quarter's work and an update on the project's web page are included in the conclusions.

  3. Ethical implications of co-benefits rationale within climate change mitigation strategy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rita Vasconcellos Oliveira

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Climate change mitigation effort is being translated into several actions and discourses that make collateral benefits and their rationale increasingly relevant for sustainability, in such a way that they are now a constant part of the political agenda. Taking a border and consensual perspective, co-benefits are considered here to be emerging advantages of the implementation of measures regarding the lowering of greenhouse gases.Departing from the analysis of policy documents referring to two European urban transportation strategies, the emergent co-benefits are problematized and discussed to better understand their moral aspect. Further ethical reflection is conducted after an analysis of some unintended consequences of co-benefits rationale coming from the mentioned examples. The focus is primarily on the challenges of an integrative moral justification for co-benefits and also for their role in the climate change mitigation effort. We also discuss the limitations of the current normative models that frame co-benefits rationale, from a moral viewpoint and in relation to the overall climate change mitigation strategy.In this article, we propose the concepts of well-being and freedom, as portrayed by Capabilities Approach, as possible guiding notions for the moral and social evaluation of goodness of these emergent benefits and their rationale too. Additionally, some preliminary conclusions are drawn regarding the potential of the presented concepts to favour the climate change mitigation action. Finally, a scenario is drawn where Capabilities Approach is the moral guideline for co-benefits rationale showing this way its potential in terms of enhancing climate change mitigation strategy.

  4. Experimental Investigation of Gaseous Reaction Products from Na-CO{sub 2} Reaction in Na/CO{sub 2} Heat Exchanger leakage scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Go, A-Reum; Jung, Hwa-Young; Kim, Min Seok; Lee, Jeong Ik [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Min, Jaehong; Wi, Myung-Hwan [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The SFRs have operated with the steam Rankine cycle as a power conversion system. However, the potential sodium-water reaction (SWR) whose chemical reactivity is vigorous and instantaneous has been one of the major issues concerning the safety and integrity of the SFRs. In order to avoid SWR, supercritical CO{sub 2}(S-CO{sub 2}) Brayton cycles have been investigated recently. Compared to conventional steam Rankine cycles, S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle features higher thermal efficiency and potential compactness of its required equipment. In spite of the superiority of S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle, there is a potential reactive process between sodium and CO{sub 2} if the pressure boundary fails in the sodium-CO{sub 2} heat exchanger. The leakage scenario which could lead to mechanical and thermal problems should be evaluated. Previous studies have reported the following major reaction formulas. Each reaction occurs competitively. In this paper, the experimental setup to observe the pressure variation and CO concentration in Na-CO{sub 2} heat exchanger during the CO{sub 2} leak is explained. Before the experiment is carried out, water-CO{sub 2} mock-up test will be performed. In order to evaluate the leakage scenario in Na-CO{sub 2} heat exchanger more accurately, this study will be important for guaranteeing the system of SFR coupled with S-CO{sub 2} cycle.

  5. Evaluation of mitigation scenarios of climate change in the electric sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perez Martin, David; Lopez Lopez, I.

    1999-01-01

    The electricity generation contributes to development and to improve the quality of life, But it is ones of the most important contributors to the Greenhouse Gas and particle emissions particularly in Cuba where 99.4% of electricity in the National Electric System is generated from fossil fuels. In the paper from mitigation measures three mitigation scenarios are evaluated for the Expansion of the Cuban electric system using DECADES Tools. Evaluated scenarios include the Use of 60% of the biomass potential, the combinations of this with nuclear power reactors, Hydraulic energy and combined cycle power plants. Finally in the paper the Greenhouse Gas level reduction, investment, fuel, operation and Maintenance costs and Carbon Intensity in generation are analyzed for evaluated mitigation Scenarios and conclusions are offered

  6. Evaluating Health Co-Benefits of Climate Change Mitigation in Urban Mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolkinger, Brigitte; Haas, Willi; Bachner, Gabriel; Weisz, Ulli; Steininger, Karl; Hutter, Hans-Peter; Delcour, Jennifer; Griebler, Robert; Mittelbach, Bernhard; Maier, Philipp; Reifeltshammer, Raphael

    2018-04-28

    There is growing recognition that implementation of low-carbon policies in urban passenger transport has near-term health co-benefits through increased physical activity and improved air quality. Nevertheless, co-benefits and related cost reductions are often not taken into account in decision processes, likely because they are not easy to capture. In an interdisciplinary multi-model approach we address this gap, investigating the co-benefits resulting from increased physical activity and improved air quality due to climate mitigation policies for three urban areas. Additionally we take a (macro-)economic perspective, since that is the ultimate interest of policy-makers. Methodologically, we link a transport modelling tool, a transport emission model, an emission dispersion model, a health model and a macroeconomic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze three climate change mitigation scenarios. We show that higher levels of physical exercise and reduced exposure to pollutants due to mitigation measures substantially decrease morbidity and mortality. Expenditures are mainly born by the public sector but are mostly offset by the emerging co-benefits. Our macroeconomic results indicate a strong positive welfare effect, yet with slightly negative GDP and employment effects. We conclude that considering economic co-benefits of climate change mitigation policies in urban mobility can be put forward as a forceful argument for policy makers to take action.

  7. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

    2015-01-01

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  8. Co-benefits of global, domestic, and sectoral greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality and human health in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Smith, Steven J.; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; West, J. Jason

    2017-11-01

    Policies to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can bring ancillary benefits of improved air quality and reduced premature mortality, in addition to slowing climate change. Here we study the co-benefits of global and domestic GHG mitigation on US air quality and human health in 2050 at fine resolution using dynamical downscaling, and quantify for the first time the co-benefits from foreign GHG mitigation. Relative to a reference scenario, global GHG reductions in RCP4.5 avoid 16000 PM2.5-related all-cause deaths yr-1 (90% confidence interval, 11700-20300), and 8000 (3600-12400) O3-related respiratory deaths yr-1 in the US in 2050. Foreign GHG mitigation avoids 15% and 62% of PM2.5- and O3-related total avoided deaths, highlighting the importance of foreign GHG mitigation on US human health benefits. GHG mitigation in the US residential sector brings the largest co-benefits for PM2.5-related deaths (21% of total domestic co-benefits), and industry for O3 (17%). Monetized benefits, for avoided deaths from ozone, PM2.5, and heat stress from a related study, are $148 ($96-201) per ton CO2 at high valuation and $49 ($32-67) at low valuation, of which 36% are from foreign GHG reductions. These benefits likely exceed the marginal cost of GHG reductions in 2050. The US gains significantly greater co-benefits when coordinating GHG reductions with foreign countries. Similarly, previous studies estimating co-benefits locally or regionally may greatly underestimate the full co-benefits of coordinated global actions.

  9. Can Elevated Air [CO2] Conditions Mitigate the Predicted Warming Impact on the Quality of Coffee Bean?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José C. Ramalho

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate changes, mostly related to high temperature, are predicted to have major negative impacts on coffee crop yield and bean quality. Recent studies revealed that elevated air [CO2] mitigates the impact of heat on leaf physiology. However, the extent of the interaction between elevated air [CO2] and heat on coffee bean quality was never addressed. In this study, the single and combined impacts of enhanced [CO2] and temperature in beans of Coffea arabica cv. Icatu were evaluated. Plants were grown at 380 or 700 μL CO2 L-1 air, and then submitted to a gradual temperature rise from 25°C up to 40°C during ca. 4 months. Fruits were harvested at 25°C, and in the ranges of 30–35 or 36–40°C, and bean physical and chemical attributes with potential implications on quality were then examined. These included: color, phenolic content, soluble solids, chlorogenic, caffeic and p-coumaric acids, caffeine, trigonelline, lipids, and minerals. Most of these parameters were mainly affected by temperature (although without a strong negative impact on bean quality, and only marginally, if at all, by elevated [CO2]. However, the [CO2] vs. temperature interaction strongly attenuated some of the negative impacts promoted by heat (e.g., total chlorogenic acids, thus maintaining the bean characteristics closer to those obtained under adequate temperature conditions (e.g., soluble solids, caffeic and p-coumaric acids, trigonelline, chroma, Hue angle, and color index, and increasing desirable features (acidity. Fatty acid and mineral pools remained quite stable, with only few modifications due to elevated air [CO2] (e.g., phosphorous and/or heat. In conclusion, exposure to high temperature in the last stages of fruit maturation did not strongly depreciate bean quality, under the conditions of unrestricted water supply and moderate irradiance. Furthermore, the superimposition of elevated air [CO2] contributed to preserve bean quality by modifying and mitigating

  10. Can Elevated Air [CO2] Conditions Mitigate the Predicted Warming Impact on the Quality of Coffee Bean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, José C.; Pais, Isabel P.; Leitão, António E.; Guerra, Mauro; Reboredo, Fernando H.; Máguas, Cristina M.; Carvalho, Maria L.; Scotti-Campos, Paula; Ribeiro-Barros, Ana I.; Lidon, Fernando J. C.; DaMatta, Fábio M.

    2018-01-01

    Climate changes, mostly related to high temperature, are predicted to have major negative impacts on coffee crop yield and bean quality. Recent studies revealed that elevated air [CO2] mitigates the impact of heat on leaf physiology. However, the extent of the interaction between elevated air [CO2] and heat on coffee bean quality was never addressed. In this study, the single and combined impacts of enhanced [CO2] and temperature in beans of Coffea arabica cv. Icatu were evaluated. Plants were grown at 380 or 700 μL CO2 L-1 air, and then submitted to a gradual temperature rise from 25°C up to 40°C during ca. 4 months. Fruits were harvested at 25°C, and in the ranges of 30–35 or 36–40°C, and bean physical and chemical attributes with potential implications on quality were then examined. These included: color, phenolic content, soluble solids, chlorogenic, caffeic and p-coumaric acids, caffeine, trigonelline, lipids, and minerals. Most of these parameters were mainly affected by temperature (although without a strong negative impact on bean quality), and only marginally, if at all, by elevated [CO2]. However, the [CO2] vs. temperature interaction strongly attenuated some of the negative impacts promoted by heat (e.g., total chlorogenic acids), thus maintaining the bean characteristics closer to those obtained under adequate temperature conditions (e.g., soluble solids, caffeic and p-coumaric acids, trigonelline, chroma, Hue angle, and color index), and increasing desirable features (acidity). Fatty acid and mineral pools remained quite stable, with only few modifications due to elevated air [CO2] (e.g., phosphorous) and/or heat. In conclusion, exposure to high temperature in the last stages of fruit maturation did not strongly depreciate bean quality, under the conditions of unrestricted water supply and moderate irradiance. Furthermore, the superimposition of elevated air [CO2] contributed to preserve bean quality by modifying and mitigating the heat impact

  11. Can Elevated Air [CO2] Conditions Mitigate the Predicted Warming Impact on the Quality of Coffee Bean?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramalho, José C; Pais, Isabel P; Leitão, António E; Guerra, Mauro; Reboredo, Fernando H; Máguas, Cristina M; Carvalho, Maria L; Scotti-Campos, Paula; Ribeiro-Barros, Ana I; Lidon, Fernando J C; DaMatta, Fábio M

    2018-01-01

    Climate changes, mostly related to high temperature, are predicted to have major negative impacts on coffee crop yield and bean quality. Recent studies revealed that elevated air [CO 2 ] mitigates the impact of heat on leaf physiology. However, the extent of the interaction between elevated air [CO 2 ] and heat on coffee bean quality was never addressed. In this study, the single and combined impacts of enhanced [CO 2 ] and temperature in beans of Coffea arabica cv. Icatu were evaluated. Plants were grown at 380 or 700 μL CO 2 L -1 air, and then submitted to a gradual temperature rise from 25°C up to 40°C during ca. 4 months. Fruits were harvested at 25°C, and in the ranges of 30-35 or 36-40°C, and bean physical and chemical attributes with potential implications on quality were then examined. These included: color, phenolic content, soluble solids, chlorogenic, caffeic and p -coumaric acids, caffeine, trigonelline, lipids, and minerals. Most of these parameters were mainly affected by temperature (although without a strong negative impact on bean quality), and only marginally, if at all, by elevated [CO 2 ]. However, the [CO 2 ] vs. temperature interaction strongly attenuated some of the negative impacts promoted by heat (e.g., total chlorogenic acids), thus maintaining the bean characteristics closer to those obtained under adequate temperature conditions (e.g., soluble solids, caffeic and p -coumaric acids, trigonelline, chroma, Hue angle, and color index), and increasing desirable features (acidity). Fatty acid and mineral pools remained quite stable, with only few modifications due to elevated air [CO 2 ] (e.g., phosphorous) and/or heat. In conclusion, exposure to high temperature in the last stages of fruit maturation did not strongly depreciate bean quality, under the conditions of unrestricted water supply and moderate irradiance. Furthermore, the superimposition of elevated air [CO 2 ] contributed to preserve bean quality by modifying and mitigating

  12. Potential reduction of CO2 emissions and low carbon scenario for the Brazilian industrial sector for 2030; Potencial de reducao de emissoes de Co2 e cenario de baixo carbono para o setor industrial brasileiro para 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Henriques Junior, Mauricio F. [Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia (INT), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)], email: mauricio.henriques@int.gov.br; Schaeffer, Roberto [Coordenacao dos Programas de Pos-Graduacao de Engenharia (COPPE/UFRJ), RJ (Brazil)], email: roberto@ppe.ufrj.br

    2010-07-01

    This study discusses the potential for reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from energy use by the Brazilian industrial sector in a low-carbon scenario over a horizon until 2030. It evaluates the main mitigation measures, the quantities of this gas avoided and the respective abatement costs. In relation to a benchmark scenario projected for 2030, the reduction of CO2 emissions estimated here can reach 40% by adopting energy efficiency measures, materials recycling, cogeneration, shifting from fossil fuels to renewable or less carbon content sources, and eliminating the use of biomass from deforestation. The set of measures studied here would bring cumulative emissions reductions of nearly 1.5 billion tCO2 over a period of 20 years (2010-2030). This would require huge investments, but the majority of them would have significant economic return and negative abatement costs. However, in the cases there would be low economic attractiveness and higher abatement costs, thus requiring more effective incentives and a collective effort, from both the public and private sectors. (author)

  13. Short-term global warming mitigation costs of fischer-tropsch diesel production and policy scenarios in Norway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bright, Ryan M.; Stroemman, Anders Hammer

    2010-07-01

    provided to pioneer investors. Under the Loan Guarantee scenario, we assess the cost implications of 100% direct government financing at 2% interest. Under the Corporate Tax Credit scenario, we assess cost changes related to a 100% corporate tax credit, or a 0% income tax rate; and under the Feedstock Credit scenario, we assess cost changes related to a $30/tonne subsidy on intermediate feedstock inputs over the life of the analysis period. When comparing results to the ex-tax price (+ CO{sub 2} tax) of conventional diesel under a medium oil price scenario ($105/bbl, $0.98/liter diesel), we find that all but the Loan Guarantee policy alternatives lead to GHG mitigation costs of under $22/tonne-CO{sub 2}-eq.-avoided (NPV). From an investor standpoint, we find that investor profitability is maximized through the provisioning of a matching Capital Grant, and because the present value of this government policy alternative is most cost-effective in terms of reducing transport GHG emissions while offering additional benefits of being time-bound and budget-limited, we argue for Norway that such a policy would be favorable over the other support policies considered. (Author)

  14. Investigation into solar drying of potato: effect of sample geometry on drying kinetics and CO2 emissions mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tripathy, P P

    2015-03-01

    Drying experiments have been performed with potato cylinders and slices using a laboratory scale designed natural convection mixed-mode solar dryer. The drying data were fitted to eight different mathematical models to predict the drying kinetics, and the validity of these models were evaluated statistically through coefficient of determination (R(2)), root mean square error (RMSE) and reduced chi-square (χ (2)). The present investigation showed that amongst all the mathematical models studied, the Modified Page model was in good agreement with the experimental drying data for both potato cylinders and slices. A mathematical framework has been proposed to estimate the performance of the food dryer in terms of net CO2 emissions mitigation potential along with unit cost of CO2 mitigation arising because of replacement of different fossil fuels by renewable solar energy. For each fossil fuel replaced, the gross annual amount of CO2 as well as net amount of annual CO2 emissions mitigation potential considering CO2 emissions embodied in the manufacture of mixed-mode solar dryer has been estimated. The CO2 mitigation potential and amount of fossil fuels saved while drying potato samples were found to be the maximum for coal followed by light diesel oil and natural gas. It was inferred from the present study that by the year 2020, 23 % of CO2 emissions can be mitigated by the use of mixed-mode solar dryer for drying of agricultural products.

  15. The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Raupach, M.R.; Gloor, M.; Sarmiento, J.L.; Gasser, T.

    2014-01-01

    Through 1959-2012, an airborne fraction (AF) of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO 2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO 2 sink rate (k S ), the combined land-ocean CO 2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO 2 above pre industrial levels. Here we show from observations that k S declined over 1959-2012 by a factor of about 1/3, implying that CO 2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO 2 . Using a carbon-climate model, we attribute the decline in k S to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO 2 emissions growth (35% of the trend), volcanic eruptions (25 %), sink responses to climate change (20 %), and nonlinear responses to increasing CO 2 , mainly oceanic (20 %). The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO 2 . Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases in k S will occur under all plausible CO 2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause k S to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms cause k S to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon-climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime. (authors)

  16. Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO2 Mitigation. Quarterly Technical Report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory Kremer; David J. Bayless; Morgan Vis; Michael Prudich; Keith Cooksey; Jeff Muhs

    2005-01-01

    This report highlights significant achievements in the Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO 2 Mitigation Project during the ending 12/31/2004. Specific results and accomplishments for the program include review of pilot scale testing and design of a new bioreactor. Testing confirmed that algae can be grown in a sustainable fashion in the pilot bioreactor, even with intermittent availability of sunlight. The pilot-scale tests indicated that algal growth rate followed photon delivery during productivity testing

  17. An assessment of the potentials of nuclear power and carbon capture and storage in the long-term global warming mitigation options based on Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mori, Shunsuke

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents an evaluation of global warming mitigation options based on scenarios from the Asian Modeling Exercise. Using an extended version of the integrated assessment model MARIA-23 (Multiregional Approach for Resource and Industry Allocation), we analyze nuclear fuel recycling options, carbon capture and storage technologies (CCS), and biomass utilization. To assess the potential implications of decreased social acceptance of nuclear power in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear accident, additional scenarios including a nuclear power expansion limitation, are analyzed. We also evaluate MARIA-23 model simulation estimates of long-term contributions and interrelationships among nuclear power, biomass, and CCS. Finally, potential costs of nuclear limitation under carbon control policies are assessed. The simulation results in this paper suggest the following: (1) under the reference scenario, global GDP losses in climate limitation scenarios range from 1.3% per year to 3.9% per year in 2060, rising to between 3.5% per year and 4.5% per year in 2100; (2) the use of nuclear fuel reprocessing technologies increase rapidly in all carbon control policy scenarios; (3) under a scenario where the price of CO 2 is $30 and nuclear power expansion is strictly limited, GDP losses increase significantly—from 4.5% per year to 6.4% per year by 2100; (4) nuclear power and CCS are substitute mitigation technologies. With nuclear power technology available CCS deployment reaches approximately 15,000 Mt-CO 2 per year by 2010; without a nuclear power option, CCS deployment rises to more than 80,000 Mt-CO 2 per year; and (5) biomass utilization cannot fully compensate for limitations to nuclear power expansion in policy scenarios. In addition to examining the role of these three technologies on global scales, we report results for several major Asian regions, namely Japan, China, and India. China tends to deploy nuclear power (if available) in response to rapidly growing

  18. Trends in CO2 Emissions from China-Oriented International Marine Transportation Activities and Policy Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hualong Yang

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The demand for marine transportation and its associated CO2 emissions are growing rapidly as a result of increasing international trade and economic growth. An activity-based approach is developed for forecasting CO2 emissions from the China-oriented international seaborne trade sector. To accurately estimate the aggregated emissions, CO2 emissions are calculated individually for five categories of vessels: crude oil tanker, product tanker, chemical tanker, bulk carrier, and container. A business-as-usual (BAU scenario was developed to describe the current situation without additional mitigation policies, whilst three alternative scenarios were developed to describe scenarios with various accelerated improvements of the key factors. The aggregated CO2 emissions are predicted to reach 419.97 Mt under the BAU scenario, and 258.47 Mt under the optimal case, AD3. These predictions are 4.5 times and 2.8 times that of the aggregated emissions in 2007. Our analysis suggests that regulations for monitoring, reporting, and verifying the activities of vessels should be proposed, in order to quantify the CO2 emissions of marine transportation activities in Chinese territorial waters. In the long-term future, mitigation policies should be employed to reduce CO2 emissions from the marine trade sector and to address the climatic impact of shipping.

  19. ASSESSMENT OF CO2 EMISSION MITIGATION FOR A BRAZILIAN OIL REFINERY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. N. Chan

    Full Text Available Abstract Currently the oil refining sector is responsible for approximately 5% of the total Brazilian energy related CO2 emissions. Possibilities to reduce CO2 emissions and related costs at the largest Brazilian refinery have been estimated. The abatement costs related to energy saving options are negative, meaning that feasibility exists without specific income due to emission reductions. The assessment shows that short-term mitigation options, i.e., fuel substitution and energy efficiency measures, could reduce CO2 emissions by 6% of the total current refinery emissions. It is further shown that carbon capture and storage offers the greatest potential for more significant emission reductions in the longer term (up to 43%, but costs in the range of 64 to162 US$/t CO2, depending on the CO2 emission source (regenerators of FCC units or hydrogen production units and the CO2 capture technology considered (oxyfuel combustion or post-combustion. Effects of uncertainties in key parameters on abatement costs are also evaluated via sensitivity analysis.

  20. Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2013-12-01

    represented, in addition to the extensive data compiled from recent studies on bottom-up representation of efficiency measures for the sector. We also defined various mitigation scenarios including long-term production trends to project country-specific production, energy use, trading, carbon emissions, and costs of mitigation. Such analyses can provide useful information to assist policy-makers when considering and shaping future emissions mitigation strategies and policies. The technical objective is to analyze the costs of production and CO2 emission reduction in the U.S, China, and India’s iron and steel sectors under different emission reduction scenarios, using the ISEEM-IS as a cost optimization model. The scenarios included in this project correspond to various CO2 emission reduction targets for the iron and steel sector under different strategies such as simple CO2 emission caps (e.g., specific reduction goals), emission reduction via commodity trading, and emission reduction via carbon trading.

  1. Co-benefits of global and regional greenhouse gas mitigation for US air quality in 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Yuqiang; Bowden, Jared H.; Adelman, Zachariah; Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Smith, Steven J.; West, J. Jason

    2016-08-01

    Policies to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will not only slow climate change but can also have ancillary benefits of improved air quality. Here we examine the co-benefits of both global and regional GHG mitigation for US air quality in 2050 at fine resolution, using dynamical downscaling methods, building on a previous global co-benefits study (West et al., 2013). The co-benefits for US air quality are quantified via two mechanisms: through reductions in co-emitted air pollutants from the same sources and by slowing climate change and its influence on air quality, following West et al. (2013). Additionally, we separate the total co-benefits into contributions from domestic GHG mitigation vs. mitigation in foreign countries. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to dynamically downscale future global climate to the regional scale and the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) program to directly process global anthropogenic emissions to the regional domain, and we provide dynamical boundary conditions from global simulations to the regional Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model. The total co-benefits of global GHG mitigation from the RCP4.5 scenario compared with its reference are estimated to be higher in the eastern US (ranging from 0.6 to 1.0 µg m-3) than the west (0–0.4 µg m-3) for fine particulate matter (PM2.5), with an average of 0.47 µg m-3 over the US; for O3, the total co-benefits are more uniform at 2–5 ppb, with a US average of 3.55 ppb. Comparing the two mechanisms of co-benefits, we find that reductions in co-emitted air pollutants have a much greater influence on both PM2.5 (96 % of the total co-benefits) and O3 (89 % of the total) than the second co-benefits mechanism via slowing climate change, consistent with West et al. (2013). GHG mitigation from foreign countries contributes more to the US O3 reduction

  2. Climate change mitigation: comparative assessment of Malaysian and ASEAN scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasiah, Rajah; Ahmed, Adeel; Al-Amin, Abul Quasem; Chenayah, Santha

    2017-01-01

    This paper analyses empirically the optimal climate change mitigation policy of Malaysia with the business as usual scenario of ASEAN to compare their environmental and economic consequences over the period 2010-2110. A downscaling empirical dynamic model is constructed using a dual multidisciplinary framework combining economic, earth science, and ecological variables to analyse the long-run consequences. The model takes account of climatic variables, including carbon cycle, carbon emission, climatic damage, carbon control, carbon concentration, and temperature. The results indicate that without optimal climate policy and action, the cumulative cost of climate damage for Malaysia and ASEAN as a whole over the period 2010-2110 would be MYR40.1 trillion and MYR151.0 trillion, respectively. Under the optimal policy, the cumulative cost of climatic damage for Malaysia would fall to MYR5.3 trillion over the 100 years. Also, the additional economic output of Malaysia will rise from MYR2.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.6 billion in 2050 and MYR5.5 billion in 2110 under the optimal climate change mitigation scenario. The additional economic output for ASEAN would fall from MYR8.1 billion in 2010 to MYR3.2 billion in 2050 before rising again slightly to MYR4.7 billion in 2110 in the business as usual ASEAN scenario.

  3. Possible use of Fe/CO2 fuel cells for CO2 mitigation plus H2 and electricity production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rau, Greg H.

    2004-01-01

    The continuous oxidation of scrap iron in the presence of a constant CO 2 -rich waste gas stream and water is evaluated as a means of sequestering anthropogenic CO 2 as well as generating hydrogen gas and electricity. The stoichiometry of the net reaction, Fe 0 + CO 2 + H 2 O → FeCO 3 + H 2 , and assumptions about reaction rates, reactant and product prices/values and overhead costs suggest that CO 2 might be mitigated at a net profit in excess of $30/tonne CO 2 . The principle profit center of the process would be hydrogen production, alone providing a gross income of >$160/tonne CO 2 reacted. However, the realization of such fuel cell economics depends on a number of parameters including: (1) the rate at which the reaction can be sustained, (2) the areal and volumetric density with which H 2 and electricity can be produced, (3) the purity of the H 2 produced, (4) the transportation costs of the reactants (Fe, CO 2 and H 2 O) and products (FeCO 3 or Fe(HCO 3 ) 2 ) to/from the cells and (5) the cost/benefit trade-offs of optimizing the preceding variables in a given market and regulatory environment. Because of the carbon intensity of conventional iron metal production, a net carbon sequestration benefit for the process can be realized only when waste (rather than new) iron and steel are used as electrodes and/or when Fe(HCO 3 ) 2 is the end product. The used electrolyte could also provide a free source of Fe 2+ ions for enhancing iron-limited marine photosynthesis and, thus, greatly increasing the CO 2 sequestration potential of the process. Alternatively, the reaction of naturally occurring iron oxides (iron ore) with CO 2 can be considered for FeCO 3 formation and sequestration, but this foregoes the benefits of hydrogen and electricity production. Use of Fe/CO 2 fuel cells would appear to be particularly relevant for fossil fuel gasification/steam reforming systems given the highly concentrated CO 2 they generate and given the existing infrastructure they

  4. Mobile source CO2 mitigation through smart growth development and vehicle fleet hybridization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stone, Brian; Mednick, Adam C; Holloway, Tracey; Spak, Scott N

    2009-03-15

    This paper presents the results of a study on the effectiveness of smart growth development patterns and vehicle fleet hybridization in reducing mobile source emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) across 11 major metropolitan regions of the Midwestern U.S. over a 50-year period. Through the integration of a vehicle travel activity modeling framework developed by researchers atthe Oak Ridge National Laboratory with small area population projections, we model mobile source emissions of CO2 associated with alternative land development and technology change scenarios between 2000 and 2050. Our findings suggest that under an aggressive smart growth scenario, growth in emissions expected to occur under a business as usual scenario is reduced by 34%, while the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicles throughout the light vehicle fleet is found to offset the expected growth in emissions by 97%. Our results further suggest that high levels of urban densification could achieve reductions in 2050 CO2 emissions equivalent to those attainable through the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicle technologies.

  5. The Effects of Coal Switching and Improvements in Electricity Production Efficiency and Consumption on CO2 Mitigation Goals in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Li

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Although the average CO2 emission for a person in China is only about 1/4 that of a person in the US, the government of China still made a commitment to ensure that CO2 emissions will reach their peak in 2030 because of the ever-increasing pressure of global warming. In this work, we examined the effects of coal switching, efficiency improvements in thermal power generation and the electricity consumption of economic activities on realizing this goal. An improved STIRPAT model was developed to create the scenarios. In order to make the estimated elasticities more consistent with different variables selected to construct the formulation, a double-layer STIRPAT model was constructed, and by integrating the two equations obtained by regressing the series in each layer, we finally got the equation to describe the long-run relationship among CO2 emissions (Ic, the share of coal in overall energy consumption (FMC, coal intensity of thermal power generation (CIp and electricity intensity of GDP (EIelec. The long term elasticities represented by the equation show that the growth of CO2 emissions in China is quite sensitive to FMC, CIp and EIelec. After that, five scenarios were developed in order to examine the effects of China’s possible different CO2 emission reduction policies, focusing on improving FMC, CIp and EIelec respectively. Through a rigorous analysis, we found that in order to realize the committed CO2 emissions mitigating goal, China should obviously accelerate the pace in switching from coal to low carbon fuels, coupled with a consistent improvement in electricity efficiency of economic activities and a slightly slower improvement in the coal efficiency of thermal power generation.

  6. ENHANCED PRACTICAL PHOTOSYNTHETIC CO2 MITIGATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dr. Gregory Kremer; Dr. David J. Bayless; Dr. Morgan Vis; Dr. Michael Prudich; Dr. Keith Cooksey; Dr. Jeff Muhs

    2001-07-25

    This quarterly report documents significant achievements in the Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO{sub 2} Mitigation project during the period from 4/03/2001 through 7/02/2001. Most of the achievements are milestones in our efforts to complete the tasks and subtasks that constitute the project objectives. Note that this version of the quarterly technical report is a revision to add the reports from subcontractors Montana State and Oak Ridge National Laboratories The significant accomplishments for this quarter include: Development of an experimental plan and initiation of experiments to create a calibration curve that correlates algal chlorophyll levels with carbon levels (to simplify future experimental procedures); Completion of debugging of the slug flow reactor system, and development of a plan for testing the pressure drop of the slug flow reactor; Design and development of a new bioreactor screen design which integrates the nutrient delivery drip system and the harvesting system; Development of an experimental setup for testing the new integrated drip system/harvesting system; Completion of model-scale bioreactor tests examining the effects of CO{sub 2} concentration levels and lighting levels on Nostoc 86-3 growth rates; Completion of the construction of a larger model-scale bioreactor to improve and expand testing capabilities and initiation of tests; Substantial progress on construction of a pilot-scale bioreactor; and Preliminary economic analysis of photobioreactor deployment. Plans for next quarter's work are included in the conclusions. A preliminary economic analysis is included as an appendix.

  7. Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

    2014-07-01

    The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

  8. Liberalised electricity markets, new bioenergy technologies, and GHG emission reductions: interactions and CO2 mitigation costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gustavsson, L.; Madlener, R.

    1999-01-01

    We contrast recent developments in power and heat production with bioenergy, and natural-gas-fired condensing plants with and without decarbonisation, in the light of electricity market liberalisation. Our main focus is on CO 2 mitigation costs and carbon tax sensitivity of production costs. We find that CO 2 mitigation costs are lower for biomass systems using IGCC technology than for natural gas system using decarbonisation. However, based on current fuel prices natural-gas fired co-generation plants have the lowest production costs. Hence energy policy measures will be needed to promote biomass technologies and decarbonisation options on a liberalised market. (author)

  9. Scenario for a warm, high-CO/sub 2/ world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wigley, T M.L.; Jones, P D; Kelly, P M

    1980-01-03

    To assess the impact of global changes in temperature, precipitation, and winds that might occur as a result of increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, a meteorologically and climatologically realistic scenario of global warming was developed. The patterns of climatic changes that could result from a large increase in atmospheric CO/sub 2/ were determined by comparing the five warmest years from 1925-74 with the five coldest years in the same period. Results indicate that increased atmospheric CO/sub 2/ will cause temperature increases in most regions of the world, with maximum temperature increases occurring in northern Asia. A few isolated regions, however, will be cooler. Precipitation will increase over India and decrease in regions of the U.S., Europe, and the USSR. The social, political, and economic impacts of these changes are briefly considered. (2 maps, 34 references)

  10. The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO2 by land and ocean sinks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. R. Raupach

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Through 1959–2012, an airborne fraction (AF of 0.44 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions remained in the atmosphere, with the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO2 sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation, and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace. An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more directly than the AF is the CO2 sink rate (kS, the combined land–ocean CO2 sink flux per unit excess atmospheric CO2 above preindustrial levels. Here we show from observations that kS declined over 1959–2012 by a factor of about 1 / 3, implying that CO2 sinks increased more slowly than excess CO2. Using a carbon–climate model, we attribute the decline in kS to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO2 emissions growth (~ 35% of the trend, volcanic eruptions (~ 25%, sink responses to climate change (~ 20%, and nonlinear responses to increasing CO2, mainly oceanic (~ 20%. The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric CO2. Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic, nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon cycle. Although continuing future decreases in kS will occur under all plausible CO2 emission scenarios, the rate of decline varies between scenarios in non-intuitive ways because extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms cause kS to decline more strongly under high-emission, low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon–climate system is perturbed further from a near-linear regime.

  11. CO2 Mitigation Potential of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles larger than expected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plötz, P; Funke, S A; Jochem, P; Wietschel, M

    2017-11-28

    The actual contribution of plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles (PHEV and BEV) to greenhouse gas mitigation depends on their real-world usage. Often BEV are seen as superior as they drive only electrically and do not have any direct emissions during driving. However, empirical evidence on which vehicle electrifies more mileage with a given battery capacity is lacking. Here, we present the first systematic overview of empirical findings on actual PHEV and BEV usage for the US and Germany. Contrary to common belief, PHEV with about 60 km of real-world range currently electrify as many annual vehicles kilometres as BEV with a much smaller battery. Accordingly, PHEV recharged from renewable electricity can highly contribute to green house gas mitigation in car transport. Including the higher CO 2eq emissions during the production phase of BEV compared to PHEV, PHEV show today higher CO 2eq savings then BEVs compared to conventional vehicles. However, for significant CO 2eq improvements of PHEV and particularly of BEVs the decarbonisation of the electricity system should go on.

  12. CO{sub 2} mitigation costs of large-scale bioenergy technologies in competitive electricity markets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gustavsson, L [Mid-Sweden University, Ostersund (Sweden). Dept. of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Ecotechnology; Madlener, R [Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). CEPE

    2003-11-01

    In this study, we compare and contrast the impact of recent technological developments in large biomass-fired and natural-gas-fired cogeneration and condensing plants in terms of CO{sub 2} mitigation costs and under the conditions of a competitive electricity market. The CO{sub 2} mitigation cost indicates the minimum economic incentive required (e.g. in the form of a carbon tax) to equal the cost of a less carbon extensive system with the cost of a reference system. The results show that CO{sub 2} mitigation costs are lower for biomass systems than for natural gas systems with decarbonization. However, in liberalized energy markets and given the sociopolitical will to implement carbon extensive energy systems, market-based policy measures are still required to make biomass and decarbonization options competitive and thus help them to penetrate the market. This cost of cogeneration plants, however, depends on the evaluation method used. If we account for the limitation of heat sinks by expanding the reference entity to include both heat and power, as is typically recommended in life-cycle analysis, then the biomass-based gasification combined cycle (BIG/CC) technology turns out to be less expensive and to exhibit lower CO{sub 2} mitigation costs than biomass-fired steam turbine plants. However, a heat credit granted to cogeneration systems that is based on avoided cost of separate heat production, puts the steam turbine technology despite its lower system efficiency at an advantage. In contrast, when a crediting method based on avoided electricity production in natural gas fired condensing plants is employed, the BIG/CC technology turns out to be more cost competitive than the steam turbine technology for carbon tax levels beyond about $150/t C. Furthermore, steam turbine plants are able to compete with natural gas fired cogeneration plants at carbon tax levels higher than about $90/tC. (author)

  13. CO2 Sequestration short course

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DePaolo, Donald J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory; Cole, David R [The Ohio State University; Navrotsky, Alexandra [University of California-Davis; Bourg, Ian C [Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

    2014-12-08

    Given the public’s interest and concern over the impact of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) on global warming and related climate change patterns, the course is a timely discussion of the underlying geochemical and mineralogical processes associated with gas-water-mineral-interactions encountered during geological sequestration of CO2. The geochemical and mineralogical processes encountered in the subsurface during storage of CO2 will play an important role in facilitating the isolation of anthropogenic CO2 in the subsurface for thousands of years, thus moderating rapid increases in concentrations of atmospheric CO2 and mitigating global warming. Successful implementation of a variety of geological sequestration scenarios will be dependent on our ability to accurately predict, monitor and verify the behavior of CO2 in the subsurface. The course was proposed to and accepted by the Mineralogical Society of America (MSA) and The Geochemical Society (GS).

  14. Advanced CO2 Leakage Mitigation using Engineered Biomineralization Sealing Technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Spangler, Lee [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Cunningham, Alfred [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States); Phillips, Adrienne [Montana State Univ., Bozeman, MT (United States)

    2015-03-31

    This research project addresses one of the goals of the DOE Carbon Sequestration Program (CSP). The CSP core R&D effort is driven by technology and is accomplished through laboratory and pilot scale research aimed at new technologies for greenhouse gas mitigation. Accordingly, this project was directed at developing novel technologies for mitigating unwanted upward leakage of carbon dioxide (CO2) injected into the subsurface as part of carbon capture and storage (CCS) activities. The technology developed by way of this research project is referred to as microbially induced calcite precipitation (MICP).

  15. Analyses on Cost Reduction and CO2 Mitigation by Penetration of Fuel Cells to Residential Houses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aki, Hirohisa; Yamamoto, Shigeo; Kondoh, Junji; Murata, Akinobu; Ishii, Itaru; Maeda, Tetsuhiko

    This paper presents analyses on the penetration of polymer electrolyte fuel cells (PEFC) into a group of 10 residential houses and its effects of CO2 emission mitigation and consumers’ cost reduction in next 30 years. The price is considered to be reduced as the penetration progress which is expected to begin in near future. An experimental curve is assumed to express the decrease of the price. Installation of energy interchange systems which involve electricity, gas and hydrogen between a house which has a FC and contiguous houses is assumed to utilize both electricity and heat more efficiently, and to avoid start-stop operation of fuel processor (reformer) as much as possible. A multi-objective model which considers CO2 mitigation and consumers’ cost reduction is constructed and provided a Pareto optimum solution. A solution which simultaneously realizes both CO2 mitigation and consumers’ cost reduction appeared in the Pareto optimum solution. Strategies to reduce CO2 emission and consumers’ cost are suggested from the results of the analyses. The analyses also revealed that the energy interchange systems are effective especially in the early stage of the penetration.

  16. Use of Chlorella vulgaris for CO{sub 2} mitigation in a photobioreactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keffer, J.E.; Kleinheinz, G.T.

    2002-07-01

    One of the most understudied methods for CO{sub 2} mitigation is the use of biological processes in engineered systems such as photobioreactors. This research project describes the effectiveness of Chlorella vulgaris, used in a photobioreactor with a very short gas residence time, in sequestering CO{sub 2} from an elevated CO{sub 2} airstream. We evaluated a flow-through photobioreactor's operational parameters, as well as the growth characteristics of the C. vulgaris inoculum when exposed to an airstream with over 1850 ppm CO{sub 2}. When using dry weight, chlorophyll, and direct microscopic measurements, it was apparent that the photobioreactor's algal inoculum responded well to the elevated CO{sub 2} levels and there was no build-up of CO{sub 2} or carbonic acid in the photobioreactor. The photobioreactor, with a gas residence time of approximately 2 s, was able to remove up to 74% of the CO{sub 2} in the airstream to ambient levels. This corresponded to a 63.9-g/m(3)/h bulk removal for the experimental photobioreactor. Consequently, this photobioreactor shows that biological processes may have some promise for treating point source emissions of CO{sub 2} and deserve further study.

  17. Peaking China’s CO2 Emissions: Trends to 2030 and Mitigation Potential

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Liu

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available China has submitted its nationally determined contribution to peak its energy-related emissions around 2030. To understand how China might develop its economy while controlling CO2 emissions, this study surveys a number of recent modeling scenarios that project the country’s economic growth, energy mix, and associated emissions until 2050. Our analysis suggests that China’s CO2 emissions will continue to grow until 2040 or 2050 and will approximately double their 2010 level without additional policy intervention. The alternative scenario, however, suggests that peaking CO2 emissions around 2030 requires the emission growth rate to be reduced by 2% below the reference level. This step would result in a plateau in China’s emissions from 2020 to 2030. This paper also proposed a deep de-carbonization pathway for China that is consistent with China’s goal of peaking emissions by around 2030, which can best be achieved through a combination of improvements in energy and carbon intensities. Our analysis also indicated that the potential for energy intensity decline will be limited over time. Thus, the peaking will be largely dependent on the share of non-fossil fuel energy in primary energy consumption.

  18. The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; den Elzen, Michel G.J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2°C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and non-CO2 emissions, and suggests

  19. Scenarios for regional passenger car fleets and their CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meyer, Ina; Kaniovski, Serguei; Scheffran, Jürgen

    2012-01-01

    Passenger car traffic is among the main contributors to anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which are responsible for climate change. It is also an important indicator used to forecast these emissions in integrated climate-economic models. This paper develops scenarios for global passenger car stock until 2050. The study adopts a global regionalized approach, encompassing 11 world regions. Car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach, which includes a consumer demand model based on utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate of the income elasticity of demand for cars. The main hypothesis underlying these projections is that preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations and that the demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income. We apply scenarios for the average traffic volume and fuel efficiency developed in previous work together with the average carbon content of fuels to obtain the CO 2 emissions. - Research highlights: ► This study develops scenarios for global passenger car stock, CO 2 emissions and fuel efficiency until 2050. ► In a global regionalized approach car stock projections are obtained using a multi-model approach. ► Compared are utility maximization, a non-linear Gompertz model and a panel estimate. ► Preferences for purchasing cars are similar across cultures and nations. ► The demand for cars is largely determined by disposable income.

  20. Economic and CO2 mitigation impacts of promoting biomass heating systems: An input-output study for Vorarlberg, Austria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Madlener, Reinhard; Koller, Martin

    2007-01-01

    This paper reports on an empirical investigation about the economic and CO 2 mitigation impacts of bioenergy promotion in the Austrian federal province of Vorarlberg. We study domestic value-added, employment, and fiscal effects by means of a static input-output analysis. The bioenergy systems analysed comprise biomass district heating, pellet heating, and automated wood chip heating systems, as well as logwood stoves and boilers, ceramic stoves, and buffer storage systems. The results indicate that gross economic effects are significant, regarding both investment and operation of the systems, and that the negative economic effects caused by the displacement of conventional decentralised heating systems might be in the order of 20-40%. Finally, CO 2 mitigation effects are substantial, contributing already in 2004 around 35% of the 2010 CO 2 mitigation target of the Land Vorarlberg for all renewable energy sources

  1. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M. M J|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/364248149; Raben, I. M E; Ramírez, A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/284852414; Spruijt, M. P N; Faaij, A. P C|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/10685903X

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design, costs and routing of CO2 pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2 pipeline transport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures

  2. The influence of risk mitigation measures on the risks, costs and routing of CO 2pipelines

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knoope, M.M.J.; Raben. I.M.E.; Ramírez, A.; Spruijt, M.P.N.; Faaij, A.P.C.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this study was to analyze whether, and if so, in what way risks would influence the design,costs and routing of CO2pipelines. This article assesses locational and societal risks of CO2pipelinetransport and analyses whether rerouting or implementing additional risk mitigation measures is

  3. Fuel conservation and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hao, Han; Wang, Hewu; Ouyang, Minggao

    2011-01-01

    Passenger vehicles are the main consumers of gasoline in China. We established a bottom-up model which focuses on the simulation of energy consumptions and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation effects of five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, strengthening fuel consumption rate (FCR) limits, vehicle downsizing and promoting electric vehicle (EV) penetration were evaluated. Based on the combination of these measures, the fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were analyzed. Under reference scenario with no measures implemented, the fuel consumptions and life cycle GHG emissions will reach 520 million tons of oil equivalent (Mtoe) and 2.15 billion tons in 2050, about 8.1 times the level in 2010. However, substantial fuel conservation can be achieved by implementing the measures. By implementing all five measures together, the fuel consumption will reach 138 Mtoe in 2030 and decrease to 126 Mtoe in 2050, which is only 37.1% and 24.3% of the consumption under reference scenario. Similar potential lies in GHG mitigation. The results and scenarios provided references for the Chinese government’s policy-making. -- Highlights: ► We established a bottom-up model to simulate the fuel consumptions and GHG (Greenhouse gas) emissions growth by China’s passenger vehicle fleet. ► Five measures including constraining vehicle registration, reducing vehicle travel, improving fuel efficiency, vehicle downsizing and promoting EV penetration were evaluated. ► The fuel conservation and GHG emissions mitigation scenarios for China’s passenger vehicle fleet were provided as references for policy-making.

  4. Emissions reduction scenarios in the Argentinean Energy Sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolás; Nadal, Gustavo; Lallana, Francisco; Falzon, James; Calvin, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    In this paper the LEAP, TIAM-ECN, and GCAM models were applied to evaluate the impact of a variety of climate change control policies (including carbon pricing and emission constraints relative to a base year) on primary energy consumption, final energy consumption, electricity sector development, and CO_2 emission savings of the energy sector in Argentina over the 2010–2050 period. The LEAP model results indicate that if Argentina fully implements the most feasible mitigation measures currently under consideration by official bodies and key academic institutions on energy supply and demand, such as the ProBiomass program, a cumulative incremental economic cost of 22.8 billion US$(2005) to 2050 is expected, resulting in a 16% reduction in GHG emissions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. These measures also bring economic co-benefits, such as a reduction of energy imports improving the balance of trade. A Low CO_2 price scenario in LEAP results in the replacement of coal by nuclear and wind energy in electricity expansion. A High CO_2 price leverages additional investments in hydropower. By way of cross-model comparison with the TIAM-ECN and GCAM global integrated assessment models, significant variation in projected emissions reductions in the carbon price scenarios was observed, which illustrates the inherent uncertainties associated with such long-term projections. These models predict approximately 37% and 94% reductions under the High CO_2 price scenario, respectively. By comparison, the LEAP model, using an approach based on the assessment of a limited set of mitigation options, predicts an 11.3% reduction. The main reasons for this difference include varying assumptions about technology cost and availability, CO_2 storage capacity, and the ability to import bioenergy. An emission cap scenario (2050 emissions 20% lower than 2010 emissions) is feasible by including such measures as CCS and Bio CCS, but at a significant cost. In terms of technology

  5. ENHANCED PRACTICAL PHOTOSYNTHETIC CO2 MITIGATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dr. David J. Bayless; Dr. Morgan Vis; Dr. Gregory Kremer; Dr. Michael Prudich; Dr. Keith Cooksey; Dr. Jeff Muhs

    2001-04-16

    This quarterly report documents significant achievements in the Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO{sub 2} Mitigation project during the period from 1/03/2001 through 4/02/2001. Many of the activities and accomplishments are continuations of work initiated and reported in last quarter's status report. Major activities and accomplishments for this quarter include: Three sites in Yellowstone National Park have been identified that may contain suitable organisms for use in a bioreactor; Full-scale culturing of one thermophilic organism from Yellowstone has progressed to the point that there is a sufficient quantity to test this organism in the model-scale bioreactor; The effects of the additive monoethanolamine on the growth of one thermophilic organism from Yellowstone has been tested; Testing of growth surface adhesion and properties is continuing; Construction of a larger model-scale bioreactor to improve and expand testing capabilities is completed and the facility is undergoing proof tests; Model-scale bioreactor tests examining the effects of CO{sub 2} concentration levels and lighting levels on organism growth rates are continuing; Alternative fiber optic based deep-penetration light delivery systems for use in the pilot-scale bioreactor have been designed, constructed and tested; An existing slug flow reactor system has been modified for use in this project, and a proof-of-concept test plan has been developed for the slug flow reactor; Research and testing of water-jet harvesting techniques is continuing, and a harvesting system has been designed for use in the model-scale bioreactor; and The investigation of comparative digital image analysis as a means for determining the ''density'' of algae on a growth surface is continuing Plans for next quarter's work and an update on the project's web page are included in the conclusions.

  6. Alstom's development of advanced CFB based technologies for CO{sub 2} mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nsakala ya Nsakala; David G. Turek; Gregory N. Liljedahl; Herbert E. Andrus; John H. Chiu; Jean-Xavier Morin [Alstom Power Inc., Windsor, CT (United States)

    2005-07-01

    ALSTOM Power Inc. (ALSTOM) is actively working to develop advanced circulating fluidized bed (CFB) based technologies for the purpose of CO{sub 2} mitigation. Two of the more promising ideas currently being investigated at ALSTOM are the oxygen-fired CFB and chemical looping technologies. The oxygen-fired CFB is a near-term CO{sub 2} capture technology, which uses pure oxygen tempered with recirculated flue gas to combust the fuel. The oxygen for combustion may be supplied by a cryogenic air separation unit, or in the future by more efficient processes such as oxygen transport membrane. This produces a flue gas stream comprising mostly CO{sub 2} and water vapor. Simple condensation of most of the water vapor leaves a CO{sub 2}-rich product stream which can be simply compressed for sequestration or purified for use in enhanced oil recovery or enhanced coal bed methane. Chemical looping is a longer-term development path towards CO{sub 2} mitigation. In ALSTOM's processes, a regenerable solid carrier extracts oxygen from air and transports it for combustion or gasification of the fuel. The chemical looping combustion process produces a high CO{sub 2} flue gas stream (similar to the O{sub 2} fired CFB flue gas stream) and steam for a Rankine cycle. The chemical looping gasification process captures CO{sub 2} in a separate chemical loop and produces hydrogen-rich synthesis gas for use in IGCCs, fuel cells, or for other industrial uses. This paper discusses ALSTOM's latest test work in these areas and the technical, economic and environmental implications of these advanced CFB-based systems. These advanced power generation units can be built from proven fluid bed design features and systems. 6 refs., 15 figs., 6 tabs.

  7. Discrepancies in historical emissions point to a wider 2020 gap between 2 deg. C benchmarks and aggregated national mitigation pledges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Hare, William; Chen, Claudine; Meinshausen, Malte

    2011-01-01

    Aggregations of greenhouse gas mitigation pledges by countries are frequently used to indicate whether resulting global emissions in 2020 will be 'on track' to limit global temperature increase to below specific warming levels such as 1.5 or 2 deg. C. We find that historical emission levels aggregated from data that are officially reported by countries to the UNFCCC are lower than independent global emission estimates, such as the IPCC SRES scenarios. This discrepancy in historical emissions could substantially widen the gap between 2020 pledges and 2020 benchmarks, as the latter tend to be derived from scenarios that share similar historical emission levels to IPCC SRES scenarios. Three methods for resolving this discrepancy, here called 'harmonization', are presented and their influence on 'gap' estimates is discussed. Instead of a 3.4-9.2 GtCO 2 eq shortfall in emission reductions by 2020 compared with the 44 GtCO 2 eq benchmark, the actual gap might be as high as 5.4-12.5 GtCO 2 eq (a 22-88% increase of the gap) if this historical discrepancy is accounted for. Not applying this harmonization step when using 2020 emission benchmarks could lead to an underestimation of the insufficiency of current mitigation pledges.

  8. Quantifying the biophysical climate change mitigation potential of Canada's forest sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smyth, C. E.; Stinson, G.; Neilson, E.; Lemprière, T. C.; Hafer, M.; Rampley, G. J.; Kurz, W. A.

    2014-07-01

    The potential of forests and the forest sector to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is widely recognized, but challenging to quantify at a national scale. Forests and their carbon (C) sequestration potential are affected by management practices, where wood harvesting transfers C out of the forest into products, and subsequent regrowth allows further C sequestration. Here we determine the mitigation potential of the 2.3 × 106 km2 of Canada's managed forests from 2015 to 2050 using the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector (CBM-CFS3), a harvested wood products (HWP) model that estimates emissions based on product half-life decay times, and an account of emission substitution benefits from the use of wood products and bioenergy. We examine several mitigation scenarios with different assumptions about forest management activity levels relative to a base case scenario, including improved growth from silvicultural activities, increased harvest and residue management for bioenergy, and reduced harvest for conservation. We combine forest management options with two mitigation scenarios for harvested wood product use involving an increase in either long-lived products or bioenergy uses. Results demonstrate large differences among alternative scenarios, and we identify potential mitigation scenarios with increasing benefits to the atmosphere for many decades into the future, as well as scenarios with no net benefit over many decades. The greatest mitigation impact was achieved through a mix of strategies that varied across the country and had cumulative mitigation of 254 Tg CO2e in 2030, and 1180 Tg CO2e in 2050. There was a trade-off between short-term and long-term goals, in that maximizing short-term emissions reduction could reduce the forest sector's ability to contribute to longer-term objectives. We conclude that (i) national-scale forest sector mitigation options need to be assessed rigorously from a systems perspective to avoid the development of

  9. Biological CO2 mitigation from coal power plant by Chlorella fusca and Spirulina sp.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duarte, Jessica Hartwig; de Morais, Etiele Greque; Radmann, Elisângela Martha; Costa, Jorge Alberto Vieira

    2017-06-01

    CO 2 biofixation by microalgae and cyanobacteria is an environmentally sustainable way to mitigate coal burn gas emissions. In this work the microalga Chlorella fusca LEB 111 and the cyanobacteria Spirulina sp. LEB 18 were cultivated using CO 2 from coal flue gas as a carbon source. The intermittent flue gas injection in the cultures enable the cells growth and CO 2 biofixation by these microorganisms. The Chlorella fusca isolated from a coal power plant could fix 2.6 times more CO 2 than Spirulina sp. The maximum daily CO 2 from coal flue gas biofixation was obtained with Chlorella fusca (360.12±0.27mgL -1 d -1 ), showing a specific growth rate of 0.17±<0.01d -1 . The results demonstrated the Chlorella fusca LEB 111 and Spirulina sp. LEB 18 potential to fix CO 2 from coal flue gas, and sequential biomass production with different biotechnological destinations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. ENHANCED PRACTICAL PHOTOSYNTHETIC CO2 MITIGATION

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dr. Gregory Kremer; Dr. David J. Bayless; Dr. Morgan Vis; Dr. Michael Prudich; Dr. Keith Cooksey; Dr. Jeff Muhs

    2002-07-15

    This quarterly report documents significant achievements in the Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO{sub 2} Mitigation project during the period from 4/2/2001 through 7/01/2002. Most of the achievements are milestones in our efforts to complete the tasks and subtasks that constitute the project objectives, and we are currently on schedule to complete Phase I activities by 10/2002, the milestone date from the original project timeline. As indicated in the list of accomplishments below, our efforts are focused on improving the design of the bioreactor test system, evaluating candidate organisms and growth surfaces, and scaling-up the test facilities from bench scale to pilot scale. Specific results and accomplishments for the second quarter of 2002 include: Organisms and Growth Surfaces: (1) Our collection of cyanobacteria, isolated in YNP was increased to 15 unialgal cultures. (2) Illumination rate about 50 {micro}E/m{sup 2}/sec is not saturated for the growth of 1.2 s.c. (2) isolate. The decrease of illumination rate led to the decrease of doubling time of this isolate. (3) The positive effect of Ca{sup 2+} on the growth of isolate 1.2 s.c. (2) without Omnisil was revealed, though Ca{sup 2+} addition was indifferent for the growth of this isolate at the presence of Omnisil. (4) Calcium addition had a positive effect on the generation of cyanobacterial biofilm on Omnisil surface. (5) The survivability problems with the Tr9.4 organism on Omnisil screens in the CRF2 model-scale bioreactor have been solved. The problems were related to the method used to populate the growth surfaces. When pre-populated screens were placed in the bioreactor the microalgae died within 72 hours, but when the microalgae were cultured while in place in the bioreactor using a continuous-population method they grew well inside of the CRF2 test system and survived for the full 7-day test duration. CRF2 tests will continue as soon as the new combined drip system/harvesting system header pipe

  11. Achieving CO2 reductions in Colombia: Effects of carbon taxes and abatement targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calderón, Silvia; Alvarez, Andrés Camilo; Loboguerrero, Ana María; Arango, Santiago; Calvin, Katherine; Kober, Tom; Daenzer, Kathryn; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we investigate CO 2 emission scenarios for Colombia and the effects of implementing carbon taxes and abatement targets on the energy system. By comparing baseline and policy scenario results from two integrated assessment partial equilibrium models TIAM-ECN and GCAM and two general equilibrium models Phoenix and MEG4C, we provide an indication of future developments and dynamics in the Colombian energy system. Currently, the carbon intensity of the energy system in Colombia is low compared to other countries in Latin America. However, this trend may change given the projected rapid growth of the economy and the potential increase in the use of carbon-based technologies. Climate policy in Colombia is under development and has yet to consider economic instruments such as taxes and abatement targets. This paper shows how taxes or abatement targets can achieve significant CO 2 reductions in Colombia. Though abatement may be achieved through different pathways, taxes and targets promote the entry of cleaner energy sources into the market and reduce final energy demand through energy efficiency improvements and other demand-side responses. The electric power sector plays an important role in achieving CO 2 emission reductions in Colombia, through the increase of hydropower, the introduction of wind technologies, and the deployment of biomass, coal and natural gas with CO 2 capture and storage (CCS). Uncertainty over the prevailing mitigation pathway reinforces the importance of climate policy to guide sectors toward low-carbon technologies. This paper also assesses the economy-wide implications of mitigation policies such as potential losses in GDP and consumption. An assessment of the legal, institutional, social and environmental barriers to economy-wide mitigation policies is critical yet beyond the scope of this paper. - Highlights: • Four energy and economy-wide models under carbon mitigation scenarios are compared. • Baseline results show that CO

  12. Energy strategy and mitigation potential in energy sector of the Russian federation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yakovlev, A.F.; Petrov, V.N.; Chupyatov, V.P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper describes the mitigation potential in the Russian energy sector and presents CO{sub 2} - emission scenarios. Based on the Russian energy strategy, energy conservation potential has been estimated and three groups of energy conservation measures have been pointed out. Taking into account the economic development scenarios and the scenarios of energy consumption and energy conservation, future CO{sub 2} emission scenarios for 2000 and 2010 have been prepared. Some important characteristics of these scenarios have been presented and discussed. For the period 2000-2010 annual growth rates for CO{sub 2} emission in the Russian energy sector will not exceed 0.9-1.3 %, and emission levels in 2000 make up - 75-78 %, and in 2010 - 81-88 % of the 1990 level. For the probable scenario the CO{sub 2} emission reducing will make up about 6% and 25% (for the optimistic scenario about 16% and 31%) of CO{sub 2} emission for reference scenario in 2000 and 2010 respectively. Additional CO{sub 2} emission reducing (3-5% of domestic CO{sub 2} emission) will result from increasing share of natural gas consumption.

  13. Public willingness to pay for CO2 mitigation and the determinants under climate change: a case study of Suzhou, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Jie; Zou, Liping; Lin, Tiansheng; Wu, Ying; Wang, Haikun

    2014-12-15

    This study explored the factors that influence respondents' willingness to pay (WTP) for CO2 mitigation under climate change. A questionnaire survey combined with contingent valuation and psychometric paradigm methods were conducted in the city of Suzhou, Jiangsu Province in China. Respondents' traditional demographic attributes, risk perception of greenhouse gas (GHG), and attitude toward the government's risk management practices were established using a Tobit model to analyze the determinants. The results showed that about 55% of the respondents refused to pay for CO2 mitigation, respondent's WTP increased with increasing CO2 mitigation percentage. Important factors influencing WTP include people's feeling of dread of GHGs, confidence in policy, the timeliness of governmental information disclosure, age, education and income level. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Unprecedented rates of land-use transformation in modeled climate change mitigation pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, P. A.; Field, C. B.; Lobell, D. B.; Sanchez, D.; Mach, K. J.

    2017-12-01

    Integrated assessment models (IAMs) generate climate change mitigation scenarios consistent with global temperature targets. To limit warming to 2°, stylized cost-effective mitigation pathways rely on extensive deployments of carbon dioxide (CO2) removal (CDR) technologies, including multi-gigatonne yearly carbon removal from the atmosphere through bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation/reforestation. These assumed CDR deployments keep ambitious temperature limits in reach, but associated rates of land-use transformation have not been evaluated. For IAM scenarios from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, we compare rates of modeled land-use conversion to recent observed commodity crop expansions. In scenarios with a likely chance of limiting warming to 2° in 2100, the rate of energy cropland expansion supporting BECCS exceeds past commodity crop rates by several fold. In some cases, mitigation scenarios include abrupt reversal of deforestation, paired with massive afforestation/reforestation. Specifically, energy cropland in crop. If energy cropland instead increases at rates equal to recent soybean and oil palm expansions, the scale of CO2 removal possible with BECCS is 2.6 to 10-times lower, respectively, than the deployments <2° IAM scenarios rely upon in 2100. IAM mitigation pathways may favor multi-gigatonne biomass-based CDR given undervalued sociopolitical and techno-economic deployment barriers. Heroic modeled rates for land-use transformation imply that large-scale biomass-based CDR is not an easy solution to the climate challenge.

  15. Scenarios in decision-making. An application to CO2 emission reduction strategies in passenger transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rienstra, S.A.; Vleugel, J.M; Nijkamp, P. [Department of Social Economics, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam (Netherlands)] Smokers, R.T.M. [ECN Policy Studies, Petten (Netherlands)

    1995-12-01

    The usefulness of scenarios for decision-makers is analyzed. First, a theoretical introduction to the scenario methodology is presented. Next, four energy scenarios for West-European passenger transport are developed. To start with, the present transport system as a baseline case is described and analysed. For each scenario it is outlined how the passenger transport system may look like in terms of the use of various existing and future transport technologies and the corresponding modal split. Expected energy consumption features of the various transport modes are described, data on the present fuel supply and electricity generation system are presented, as well as estimations of the future energy system. The energy consumption and CO2 emissions associated with the future passenger transport systems are assessed and these impacts are compared with the current system. The conclusion is that these scenarios provide interesting policy options for decision-makers. A large-scale reduction of CO2 emissions is possible in several ways, but each way will cause many problems, since drastic policy measures will have to be introduced, which may affect economic growth and the lifestyles of individuals. 5 figs., 11 tabs., 24 refs.

  16. Regional allocation of CO2 emissions allowance over provinces in China by 2020

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Ke; Zhang, Xian; Wei, Yi-Ming; Yu, Shiwei

    2013-01-01

    The mitigation efforts of China are increasingly important for meeting global climate target since the rapid economic growth of China has led to an increasing share in the world's total CO 2 emissions. This paper sets out to explore the approach for realizing China's national mitigation targets submitted to the UNFCCC as part of the Copenhagen Accord; that is, to reduce the intensity of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020, as well as reducing the energy intensity and increasing the share of non-fossil fuel consumption, through regional allocation of emission allowance over China's provinces. Since the realization of China's mitigation target essentially represents a total amount emission allowance allocation problem, an improved zero sum gains data envelopment analysis optimization model, which could deal with the constant total amount resources allocation, is proposed in this study. By utilizing this model and based on several scenarios of China's economic growth, CO 2 emissions, and energy consumption, a new efficient emission allowance allocation scheme on provincial level for China by 2020 is proposed. The allocation results indicate that different provinces have to shoulder different mitigation burdens in terms of emission intensity reduction, energy intensity reduction, and share of non-fossil fuels increase. - Highlights: ► We explore the approach to realize national CO 2 emissions reduction target of China by 2020. ► The CO 2 emissions allowance is allocated over China's 30 administrative regions. ► Several scenarios of China's regional economy, emission, energy consumption are given. ► The zero sum gains data envelopment analysis model is applied in emission allowance allocation. ► An efficient emission allowance allocation scheme on provincial level is proposed

  17. Low carbon society scenario 2050 in Thai industrial sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit; Masui, Toshihiko; Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Matsuoka, Yuzuru

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Thai industrial sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. • Potential mitigation of CO 2 for 2050 is approximately 20% from Baseline scenario. • Abatement cost curves show that varied counter measures are practical in the industrial sector. • Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario. - Abstract: Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand’s industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO 2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010–2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO 2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil

  18. Exploring the macro-scale CO_2 mitigation potential of photovoltaics and wind energy in Europe's energy transition

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usubiaga, Arkaitz; Acosta-Fernández, José; McDowall, Will; Li, Francis G.N.

    2017-01-01

    Replacing traditional technologies by renewables can lead to an increase of emissions during early diffusion stages if the emissions avoided during the use phase are exceeded by those associated with the deployment of new units. Based on historical developments and on counterfactual scenarios in which we assume that selected renewable technologies did not diffuse, we conclude that onshore and offshore wind energy have had a positive contribution to climate change mitigation since the beginning of their diffusion in EU27. In contrast, photovoltaic panels did not pay off from an environmental standpoint until very recently, since the benefits expected at the individual plant level were offset until 2013 by the CO_2 emissions related to the construction and deployment of the next generation of panels. Considering the varied energy mixes and penetration rates of renewable energies in different areas, several countries can experience similar time gaps between the installation of the first renewable power plants and the moment in which the emissions from their infrastructure are offset. The analysis demonstrates that the time-profile of renewable energy emissions can be relevant for target-setting and detailed policy design, particularly when renewable energy strategies are pursued in concert with carbon pricing through cap-and-trade systems. - Highlights: • There is a time gap between the deployment of renewables and net CO2 mitigation. • Offshore wind energy contributes to net emission reductions in the EU27 since 2004. • PV panels contribute to net emission reductions in the EU27 since 2013. • The time-profile of renewable energy emissions is not usually considered in policy-design. • But it is important when renewable energy strategies are combined with carbon pricing.

  19. ''No smoking''. CO{sub 2}-low power generation in a sustainable German energy system. A comparison of CO{sub 2} abatement costs of renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage; ''No smoking''. CO{sub 2}-arme Stromerzeugung in einem nachhaltigen deutschen Energiesystem. Ein Vergleich der CO{sub 2}-Vermeidungskosten von erneuerbaren Energiequellen und Carbon Capture and Storage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Trittin, Tom

    2012-05-15

    Significant reduction of CO{sub 2}-emissions is essential in order to prevent a worsening of ongoing climate change. This thesis analyses two different pathways for the mitigation of CO{sub 2}-emissions in electricity generation. It focuses on the calculation of CO{sub 2}-mitigation costs of renewable energy sources (RES) as well as of power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Under the frame of long-term CO{sub 2} reductions targets for the German electricity sector future CO{sub 2}-mitigation costs are calculated on a system-based and a technology-based approach. The calculations show that RES have lower system-based mitigation costs in all scenarios compared to a system based on CCS. If the retrofit of power plants is taken into consideration, the results are even more clearly in favour of RES. Further, the thesis investigates whether CCS can serve as a bridge towards a sustainable energy system based on RES. Findings of different scientific disciplines suggest that CCS is not the optimal choice. These findings lead to the conclusion that CCS cannot support an easier integration of RES. CCS rather has the potential to further strengthen the fossil pathway and delaying the large-scale integration of RES. Hence, CCS is rather unsuited as a bridging technology towards a system mainly based on RES.

  20. Does the use of renewable energy sources mitigate CO2 emissions? A reassessment of the US evidence

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaforullah, Mohammad; King, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Previous research on the determinants of CO 2 emissions has concluded that, although increasing nuclear energy consumption can help to mitigate emissions, increasing use of renewable energy sources is not effective in this regard. These studies, however, do not consider energy prices as a possible driver of energy demand (and hence of emissions) and we find that this omission and the choice of functional form materially alters the outcome in the US case. Specifically, our cointegration and Granger-causality test results indicate that CO 2 emission levels are negatively related to the use of renewable energy, but are unrelated to nuclear energy consumption. - Highlights: • We model CO 2 emissions for the US within a VECM framework. • We find that increasing renewable energy consumption is effective at mitigating emissions. • However, increasing nuclear energy consumption is ineffective in this respect. • Both results contradict the findings of previous studies

  1. Contrasting Impact of Future CO2 Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3 Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franco, A. C.; Gruber, N.; Frölicher, T. L.; Kropuenske Artman, L.

    2018-03-01

    The eastern boundary upwelling systems are among those regions that are most vulnerable to an ocean acidification-induced transition toward undersaturated conditions with respect to mineral CaCO3, but no assessment exists yet for the Humboldt Current System. Here we use a high-resolution (˜7.5 km) regional ocean model to investigate past and future changes in ocean pH and CaCO3 saturation state in this system. We find that within the next few decades, the nearshore waters off Peru are projected to become corrosive year round with regard to aragonite, the more soluble form of CaCO3. The volume of aragonite undersaturated water off Peru will continue to increase in the future irrespective of the amount of CO2 emitted to the atmosphere. In contrast, the development of the saturation state with regard to calcite, a less soluble form of carbonate, depends strongly on the scenario followed. By 2050, calcite undersaturation appears in the nearshore waters off Peru occasionally, but by 2090 in a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), ˜60% of the water in the euphotic zone will become permanently calcite undersaturated. Most of this calcite undersaturation off Peru can likely be avoided if a low emission scenario (RCP2.6) consistent with the Paris Agreement is followed. The progression of ocean acidification off Chile follows a similar pattern, except that the saturation states are overall higher. But also here, calcite undersaturated waters will become common in the subsurface waters under the RCP8.5 scenario by the end of this century, while this can be avoided under the RCP2.6 scenario.

  2. ''No smoking''. CO2-low power generation in a sustainable German energy system. A comparison of CO2 abatement costs of renewable energy sources and carbon capture and storage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trittin, Tom

    2012-05-01

    Significant reduction of CO 2 -emissions is essential in order to prevent a worsening of ongoing climate change. This thesis analyses two different pathways for the mitigation of CO 2 -emissions in electricity generation. It focuses on the calculation of CO 2 -mitigation costs of renewable energy sources (RES) as well as of power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS). Under the frame of long-term CO 2 reductions targets for the German electricity sector future CO 2 -mitigation costs are calculated on a system-based and a technology-based approach. The calculations show that RES have lower system-based mitigation costs in all scenarios compared to a system based on CCS. If the retrofit of power plants is taken into consideration, the results are even more clearly in favour of RES. Further, the thesis investigates whether CCS can serve as a bridge towards a sustainable energy system based on RES. Findings of different scientific disciplines suggest that CCS is not the optimal choice. These findings lead to the conclusion that CCS cannot support an easier integration of RES. CCS rather has the potential to further strengthen the fossil pathway and delaying the large-scale integration of RES. Hence, CCS is rather unsuited as a bridging technology towards a system mainly based on RES.

  3. Multi-objective and multi-criteria optimization for power generation expansion planning with CO2 mitigation in Thailand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kamphol Promjiraprawat

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In power generation expansion planning, electric utilities have encountered the major challenge of environmental awareness whilst being concerned with budgetary burdens. The approach for selecting generating technologies should depend on economic and environmental constraint as well as externalities. Thus, the multi-objective optimization becomes a more attractive approach. This paper presents a hybrid framework of multi-objective optimization and multi-criteria decision making to solve power generation expansion planning problems in Thailand. In this paper, CO2 emissions and external cost are modeled as a multi-objective optimization problem. Then the analytic hierarchy process is utilized to determine thecompromised solution. For carbon capture and storage technology, CO2 emissions can be mitigated by 74.7% from the least cost plan and leads to the reduction of the external cost of around 500 billion US dollars over the planning horizon. Results indicate that the proposed approach provides optimum cost-related CO2 mitigation plan as well as external cost.

  4. Co-benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation: a review and classification by type, mitigation sector, and geography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Hong-Mei; Liang, Qiao-Mei; Liu, Li-Jing; Diaz Anadon, Laura

    2017-12-01

    The perceived inability of climate change mitigation goals alone to mobilize sufficient climate change mitigation efforts has, among other factors, led to growing research on the co-benefits of reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study conducts a systematic review (SR) of the literature on the co-benefits of mitigating GHG emissions resulting in 1554 papers. We analyze these papers using bibliometric analysis, including a keyword co-occurrence analysis. We then iteratively develop and present a typology of co-benefits, mitigation sectors, geographic scope, and methods based on the manual double coding of the papers resulting from the SR. We find that the co-benefits from GHG mitigation that have received the largest attention of researchers are impacts on ecosystems, economic activity, health, air pollution, and resource efficiency. The co-benefits that have received the least attention include the impacts on conflict and disaster resilience, poverty alleviation (or exacerbation), energy security, technological spillovers and innovation, and food security. Most research has investigated co-benefits from GHG mitigation in the agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), electricity, transport, and residential sectors, with the industrial sector being the subject of significantly less research. The largest number of co-benefits publications provide analysis at a global level, with relatively few studies providing local (city) level analysis or studying co-benefits in Oceanian or African contexts. Finally, science and engineering methods, in contrast to economic or social science methods, are the methods most commonly employed in co-benefits papers. We conclude that given the potential mobilizing power of understudied co-benefits (e.g. poverty alleviation) and local impacts, the magnitude of GHG emissions from the industrial sector, and the fact that Africa and South America are likely to be severely affected by climate change, there is an opportunity

  5. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ekholm, Tommi; Soimakallio, Sampo; Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka

    2010-01-01

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either -10% or -50% from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system.

  6. Effort sharing in ambitious, global climate change mitigation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekholm, Tommi [TKK Helsinki University of Technology, Espoo (Finland); Soimakallio, Sampo; Syri, Sanna; Savolainen, Ilkka [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, P.O. Box 1000, FIN-02044 VTT (Finland); Moltmann, Sara; Hoehne, Niklas [Ecofys Germany GmbH, Cologne (Germany)

    2010-04-15

    The post-2012 climate policy framework needs a global commitment to deep greenhouse gas emission cuts. This paper analyzes reaching ambitious emission targets up to 2050, either or from 1990 levels, and how the economic burden from mitigation efforts could be equitably shared between countries. The scenarios indicate a large low-cost mitigation potential in electricity and industry, while reaching low emission levels in international transportation and agricultural emissions might prove difficult. The two effort sharing approaches, Triptych and Multistage, were compared in terms of equitability and coherence. Both approaches produced an equitable cost distribution between countries, with least developed countries having negative or low costs and more developed countries having higher costs. There is, however, no definitive solution on how the costs should be balanced equitably between countries. Triptych seems to be yet more coherent than other approaches, as it can better accommodate national circumstances. Last, challenges and possible hindrances to effective mitigation and equitable effort sharing are presented. The findings underline the significance of assumptions behind effort sharing on mitigation potentials and current emissions, the challenge of sharing the effort with uncertain future allowance prices and how inefficient markets might undermine the efficiency of a cap-and-trade system. (author)

  7. EU mitigation potential of harvested wood products.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilli, Roberto; Fiorese, Giulia; Grassi, Giacomo

    2015-12-01

    The new rules for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector under the Kyoto Protocol recognized the importance of Harvested Wood Products (HWP) in climate change mitigation. We used the Tier 2 method proposed in the 2013 IPCC KP Supplement to estimate emissions and removals from HWP from 1990 to 2030 in EU-28 countries with three future harvest scenarios (constant historical average, and +/-20% in 2030). For the historical period (2000-2012) our results are consistent with other studies, indicating a HWP sink equal on average to -44.0 Mt CO 2 yr -1 (about 10% of the sink by forest pools). Assuming a constant historical harvest scenario and future distribution of the total harvest among each commodity, the HWP sink decreases to -22.9 Mt CO 2 yr -1 in 2030. The increasing and decreasing harvest scenarios produced a HWP sink of -43.2 and -9.0 Mt CO 2 yr -1 in 2030, respectively. Other factors may play an important role on HWP sink, including: (i) the relative share of different wood products, and (ii) the combined effect of production, import and export on the domestic production of each commodity. Maintaining a constant historical harvest, the HWP sink will slowly tend to saturate, i.e. to approach zero in the long term. The current HWP sink will be maintained only by further increasing the current harvest; however, this will tend to reduce the current sink in forest biomass, at least in the short term. Overall, our results suggest that: (i) there is limited potential for additional HWP sink in the EU; (ii) the HWP mitigation potential should be analyzed in conjunction with other mitigation components (e.g. sink in forest biomass, energy and material substitution by wood).

  8. Co-benefits? Not always: Quantifying the negative effect of a CO2-reducing car taxation policy on NOx emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leinert, Stephan; Daly, Hannah; Hyde, Bernard; Gallachóir, Brian Ó

    2013-01-01

    With the current focus of policy action on climate change mitigation, it is important to investigate possible negative side effects of climate change policies on air pollutants. A 34% increase in CO 2 emissions from private cars in Ireland over the period 2000–2008 prompted a change in private car taxation in 2008 to incentivise the purchase of lower CO 2 emitting cars. The impact has been successful and the measure has accelerated the dieselisation of the car fleet. This however, raises an important question, namely how does the dieselisation of the car fleet affect NO x emissions? This paper combines two models to address this question, a car stock model to generate activity data (future composition and activity of Ireland's car stock) and the COPERT model to quantify the NO x emissions generated in the period 2008–2020. Previous analysis shows that the CO 2 taxation policy measure is anticipated to deliver a 7% reduction in private car related CO 2 emissions in 2020 compared with a baseline pre-tax scenario. The results here show that NO x emissions decrease in all scenarios, but a lesser degree of reduction is achieved due to dieselisation, with NO x emissions in the post-tax scenario 28% higher than the pre-tax scenario in 2020. - Highlights: • Irish car tax changed in 2008 to a CO 2 -graduated system. • Change successfully reduced the CO 2 intensity of new cars through dieselization. • However, this has negative consequences for air pollution. • Bottom-up model analyses pre-tax and post-tax NO x to 2020 using COPERT. • NO x projected to be 28% higher in 2020 compared with pre-tax scenario

  9. The implications of carbon dioxide and methane exchange for the heavy mitigation RCP2.6 scenario under two metrics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huntingford, Chris; Lowe, Jason A.; Howarth, Nicholas; Bowerman, Niel H.A.; Gohar, Laila K.; Otto, Alexander; Lee, David S.; Smith, Stephen M.; Elzen, Michel G.J. den; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Millar, Richard J.; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Exchanging methane for carbon dioxide emissions affects peak global warming. • Economic constraints severely affects exchange possibilities. • Chosen metric determines if economic to eliminate all removable methane emissions. • If all methane emissions could be removed, this could aid meeting two-degrees warming target. - Abstract: Greenhouse gas emissions associated with Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 could limit global warming to around or below a 2 °C increase since pre-industrial times. However this scenario implies very large and rapid reductions in both carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and non-CO 2 emissions, and suggests a need to understand available flexibility between how different greenhouse gases might be abated. There is a growing interest in developing a greater understanding of the particular role of shorter lived non-CO 2 gases as abatement options. We address this here through a sensitivity study of different methane (CH 4 ) emissions pathways to year 2100 and beyond, by including exchanges with CO 2 emissions, and with a focus on related climate and economic advantages and disadvantages. Metrics exist that characterise gas equivalence in terms of climate change effect per tonne emitted. We analyse the implications of CO 2 and CH 4 emission exchanges under two commonly considered metrics: the 100-yr Global Warming Potential (GWP-100) and Global Temperature Potential (GTP-100). This is whilst keeping CO 2 -equivalent emissions pathways fixed, based on the standard set of emissions usually associated with RCP2.6. An idealised situation of anthropogenic CH 4 emissions being reduced to zero across a period of two decades and with the implementation of such cuts starting almost immediately gives lower warming than for standard RCP2.6 emissions during the 21st and 22nd Century. This is despite exchanging for higher CO 2 emissions. Introducing Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves provides an economic assessment of alternative gas

  10. Leakage of CO2 from geologic storage: Role of secondaryaccumulation at shallow depth

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pruess, K.

    2007-05-31

    Geologic storage of CO2 can be a viable technology forreducing atmospheric emissions of greenhouse gases only if it can bedemonstrated that leakage from proposed storage reservoirs and associatedhazards are small or can be mitigated. Risk assessment must evaluatepotential leakage scenarios and develop a rational, mechanisticunderstanding of CO2 behavior during leakage. Flow of CO2 may be subjectto positive feedbacks that could amplify leakage risks and hazards,placing a premium on identifying and avoiding adverse conditions andmechanisms. A scenario that is unfavorable in terms of leakage behavioris formation of a secondary CO2 accumulation at shallow depth. This paperdevelops a detailed numerical simulation model to investigate CO2discharge from a secondary accumulation, and evaluates the role ofdifferent thermodynamic and hydrogeologic conditions. Our simulationsdemonstrate self-enhancing as well as self-limiting feedbacks.Condensation of gaseous CO2, 3-phase flow of aqueous phase -- liquid CO2-- gaseous CO2, and cooling from Joule-Thomson expansion and boiling ofliquid CO2 are found to play important roles in the behavior of a CO2leakage system. We find no evidence that a subsurface accumulation of CO2at ambient temperatures could give rise to a high-energy discharge, aso-called "pneumatic eruption."

  11. Japan’s Long-term Energy Demand and Supply Scenario to 2050 – Estimation for the Potential of Massive CO2 Mitigation

    OpenAIRE

    Ryoichi Komiyama; Chris Marnay; Michael Stadler; Judy Lai; Sam Borgeson; Brian Coffey; Inês Lima Azevedo

    2009-01-01

    In this analysis, we projected Japans energy demand/supply and energy-related CO2 emissions to 2050. Our analysis of various scenarios indicated that Japans CO2 emissions in 2050 could be potentially reduced by 26-58% from the current level (FY 2005) (Figure 1). These results suggest that Japan could set a CO2 emission reduction target for 2050 at between 30% and 60%. In order to reduce CO2 emissions by 60% in 2050 from the present level, Japan will have to strongly promote energy conservatio...

  12. Scenario analysis of fertilizer management practices for N2O mitigation from corn systems in Canada.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, Diego; Smith, Ward N; Grant, Brian B; Drury, Craig F; MacKell, Sarah; Wagner-Riddle, Claudia

    2016-12-15

    Effective management of nitrogen (N) fertilizer application by farmers provides great potential for reducing emissions of the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide (N 2 O). However, such potential is rarely achieved because our understanding of what practices (or combination of practices) lead to N 2 O reductions without compromising crop yields remains far from complete. Using scenario analysis with the process-based model DNDC, this study explored the effects of nine fertilizer practices on N 2 O emissions and crop yields from two corn production systems in Canada. The scenarios differed in: timing of fertilizer application, fertilizer rate, number of applications, fertilizer type, method of application and use of nitrification/urease inhibitors. Statistical analysis showed that during the initial calibration and validation stages the simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values, yet grain yield estimations warrant further model improvement. Sidedress fertilizer applications reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 60% compared to fall fertilization. Nitrification inhibitors further reduced yield-scaled N 2 O emissions by c. 10%; urease inhibitors had no effect on either N 2 O emissions or crop productivity. The combined adoption of split fertilizer application with inhibitors at a rate 10% lower than the conventional application rate (i.e. 150kgNha -1 ) was successful, but the benefits were lower than those achieved with single fertilization at sidedress. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of fertilizer management practices that enables policy development regarding N 2 O mitigation from agricultural soils in Canada. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lobell, David B; Baldos, Uris Lantz C; Hertel, Thomas W

    2013-01-01

    Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO 2 e yr −1 while spending $15 per tonne CO 2 e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5–95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25–0.43 Gt and $11–$22 per tonne CO 2 e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161–74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price

  14. Climate adaptation as mitigation: the case of agricultural investments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lobell, David B.; Baldos, Uris Lantz C.; Hertel, Thomas W.

    2013-03-01

    Successful adaptation of agriculture to ongoing climate changes would help to maintain productivity growth and thereby reduce pressure to bring new lands into agriculture. In this paper we investigate the potential co-benefits of adaptation in terms of the avoided emissions from land use change. A model of global agricultural trade and land use, called SIMPLE, is utilized to link adaptation investments, yield growth rates, land conversion rates, and land use emissions. A scenario of global adaptation to offset negative yield impacts of temperature and precipitation changes to 2050, which requires a cumulative 225 billion USD of additional investment, results in 61 Mha less conversion of cropland and 15 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) fewer emissions by 2050. Thus our estimates imply an annual mitigation co-benefit of 0.35 GtCO2e yr-1 while spending 15 per tonne CO2e of avoided emissions. Uncertainty analysis is used to estimate a 5-95% confidence interval around these numbers of 0.25-0.43 Gt and 11-22 per tonne CO2e. A scenario of adaptation focused only on Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, while less costly in aggregate, results in much smaller mitigation potentials and higher per tonne costs. These results indicate that although investing in the least developed areas may be most desirable for the main objectives of adaptation, it has little net effect on mitigation because production gains are offset by greater rates of land clearing in the benefited regions, which are relatively low yielding and land abundant. Adaptation investments in high yielding, land scarce regions such as Asia and North America are more effective for mitigation. To identify data needs, we conduct a sensitivity analysis using the Morris method (Morris 1991 Technometrics 33 161-74). The three most critical parameters for improving estimates of mitigation potential are (in descending order) the emissions factors for converting land to agriculture, the price elasticity of land supply

  15. Decomposition analysis and mitigation strategies of CO2 emissions from energy consumption in South Korea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Ilyoung; Wehrmeyer, Walter; Mulugetta, Yacob

    2010-01-01

    Energy-related CO 2 emissions in South Korea have increased substantially, outpacing those of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries since 1990. To mitigate CO 2 emissions in South Korea, we need to understand the main contributing factors to rising CO 2 levels as part of the effort toward developing targeted policies. This paper aims to analyze the specific trends and influencing factors that have caused changes in emissions patterns in South Korea over a 15-year period. To this end, we employed the Log Mean Divisia index method with five energy consumption sectors and seven sub-sectors in terms of fuel mix (FM), energy intensity (EI), structural change (SC) and economic growth (EG). The results showed that EG was a dominant explanation for the increase in CO 2 emissions in all of the sectors. The results also demonstrated that FM causes CO 2 reduction across the array of sectors with the exception of the energy supply sector. CO 2 reduction as a function of SC was also observed in manufacturing, services and residential sectors. Furthermore, EI was an important driver of CO 2 reduction in most sectors except for several manufacturing sub-sectors. Based on these findings, it appears that South Korea should implement climate change policies that consider the specific influential factors associated with increasing CO 2 emissions in each sector.

  16. Analysis of Transport Policy Effect on CO2 Emissions Based on System Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Liu

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available CO2 emission from the transport sector attracts the attention of both transport and climate change policymakers because of its share in total green house gas emissions and the forecast of continuous growth reported in many countries. This paper takes the urban transport in Beijing as a case and builds a system dynamics model for analysis of the motorization trend and the assessment of CO2 emissions mitigation policy. It is found that the urban transport condition and CO2 emissions would be more serious with the growth of vehicle ownership and travel demand. Compared with the baseline do-nothing scenario, the CO2 emissions could be reduced from 3.8% to 24.3% in 2020 by various transport policies. And the policy of controlling the number of passenger cars which has been carried out in Beijing and followed by some cities could achieve good results, which may help to increase the proportion of public transit to 55.6% and reduce the CO2 emission by 18.3% compared with the baseline scenario in 2020.

  17. Technologies for utilization of industrial excess heat: Potentials for energy recovery and CO2 emission reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Broberg Viklund, Sarah; Johansson, Maria T.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Technologies for recovery and use of industrial excess heat were investigated. • Heat harvesting, heat storage, heat utilization, and heat conversion technologies. • Heat recovery potential for Gävleborg County in Sweden was calculated. • Effects on global CO 2 emissions were calculated for future energy market scenarios. - Abstract: Industrial excess heat is a large untapped resource, for which there is potential for external use, which would create benefits for industry and society. Use of excess heat can provide a way to reduce the use of primary energy and to contribute to global CO 2 mitigation. The aim of this paper is to present different measures for the recovery and utilization of industrial excess heat and to investigate how the development of the future energy market can affect which heat utilization measure would contribute the most to global CO 2 emissions mitigation. Excess heat recovery is put into a context by applying some of the excess heat recovery measures to the untapped excess heat potential in Gävleborg County in Sweden. Two different cases for excess heat recovery are studied: heat delivery to a district heating system and heat-driven electricity generation. To investigate the impact of excess heat recovery on global CO 2 emissions, six consistent future energy market scenarios were used. Approximately 0.8 TWh/year of industrial excess heat in Gävleborg County is not used today. The results show that with the proposed recovery measures approximately 91 GWh/year of district heating, or 25 GWh/year of electricity, could be supplied from this heat. Electricity generation would result in reduced global CO 2 emissions in all of the analyzed scenarios, while heat delivery to a DH system based on combined heat and power production from biomass would result in increased global CO 2 emissions when the CO 2 emission charge is low

  18. CO{sub 2}-mitigation measures through reduction of fossil fuel burning in power utilities. Which road to go?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaupp, A. [Energetica International Inc., Suva (Fiji)

    1996-12-31

    Five conditions, at minimum, should be examined in the comparative analysis of CO{sub 2}-mitigation options for the power sector. Under the continuing constraint of scarce financial resources for any private or public investment in the power sector, the following combination of requirements characterise a successful CO{sub 2}-mitigation project: (1) Financial attractiveness for private or public investors. (2) Low, or even negative, long range marginal costs per ton of `CO{sub 2} saved`. (3) High impact on CO{sub 2}-mitigation, which indicates a large market potential for the measure. (4) The number of individual investments required to achieve the impact is relatively small. In other words, logistical difficulties in project implementation are minimised. (5) The projects are `socially fair` and have minimal negative impact on any segment of the society. This paper deals with options to reduce carbonaceous fuel burning in the power sector. Part I explains how projects should be selected and classified. Part II describes the technical options. Since reduction of carbonaceous fuel burning may be achieved through Demand Side Management (DSM) and Supply Side Management (SSM) both are treated. Within the context of this paper SSM does not mean to expand power supply as demand grows. It means to economically generate and distribute power as efficiently as possible. In too many instances DSM has degenerated into efficient lighting programs and utility managed incentives and rebate programs. To what extent this is a desirable situation for utilities in Developing Countries that face totally different problems as their counterparts in highly industrialised countries remains to be seen. Which road to go is the topic of this paper.

  19. Co-firing of imported wood pellets – An option to efficiently save CO2 emissions in Europe?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ehrig, Rita; Behrendt, Frank

    2013-01-01

    In this paper the energy and carbon footprints of pellet imports from Australia, West Canada, and Russia for co-firing in Europe are investigated. Their ecologic and economic performances are proven by applying the Belgian and UK co-firing subsidy systems, which require dedicated sustainability evaluations. Based on the modelling of different subsidy schemes and price scenarios, the present paper identifies favourable conditions for the use of biomass co-firing in Germany and Austria, which currently do not have dedicated co-firing incentives. The present paper shows that under present conditions, co-firing has a narrow financial gap to coal with −3 to 4 € Cent/kWh el and has low CO 2 mitigation costs compared to other renewables. Moreover, it is shown that co-firing is one of the most cost-attractive options to reach the EU-2020 targets. For policy makers, the support of co-firing is found to be very efficient in terms of cost-benefit ratio. It is proven that the co-firing subsidy schemes might direct supply chain decisions towards options with low energy and carbon impacts. - Highlights: • Co-firing has a low financial gap and allows for advantageous CO 2 mitigation costs compared to other renewable. • Belgian and UK's co-firing subsidies are reasonable options to promote cost-effective renewable electricity generation. • Co-firing subsidy schemes can effectively direct supply chain decisions towards low energy and carbon options

  20. The potential for greenhouse gases mitigation in household sector of Iran: cases of price reform/efficiency improvement and scenario for 2000-2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davoudpour, Hamid; Ahadi, Mohammad Sadegh

    2006-01-01

    Iran's demographic profile is sharply youth oriented and this upcoming generation's needs for employment and housing, coupled with low-energy efficiency vectors and consumption patterns, has created a constant rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions in the residential sector. Improved energy efficiency as a national policy lynchpin for demand reduction and GHGs mitigation, has become commonplace. OPEC countries however, Iran included, suffer an obvious lack of consumer incentive because of low fuel prices. This study evaluates the twin impacts of price reform and efficiency programs on energy carriers' consumption and GHGs mitigation in the Iranian housing sector. For this purpose, the demand functions for energy carriers, has been developed by econometrics process models. The results reveal that price elasticity for electricity demand in the Constant Elasticity Model for the short-run while the long-run is -0.142 and -0.901, respectively. In the Variable Elasticity Model the 250% increase in electricity rates in the short-run resulted in a price elasticity change from -0.02 to -0.475, hence the 250% increase in electricity pricing for the long-run resulted in the price elasticity change from -0.15 to -2.0. Finally, aided by a Scenario-Based Approach the impact of fuel pricing and efficiency improvement in trends of energy demand and GHGs emission were assessed in a Scenarios Base, developed on two different cases of Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Management. The results indicate that in the BAU case between 2000 and 2011, the energy demand and CO 2 emission increases with an annual growth rate of 7.5% and 6.8%, respectively. Comparatively, if the energy carriers' price is increased to border price and energy efficiency programs are implemented, they will stimulate carriers' demand and CO 2 emissions growth rate decreases to 4.94% and 3.1%, respectively

  1. Biomass Energy for Transport and Electricity: Large scale utilization under low CO2 concentration scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luckow, Patrick; Wise, Marshall A.; Dooley, James J.; Kim, Son H.

    2010-01-25

    This paper examines the potential role of large scale, dedicated commercial biomass energy systems under global climate policies designed to stabilize atmospheric concentrations of CO2 at 400ppm and 450ppm. We use an integrated assessment model of energy and agriculture systems to show that, given a climate policy in which terrestrial carbon is appropriately valued equally with carbon emitted from the energy system, biomass energy has the potential to be a major component of achieving these low concentration targets. The costs of processing and transporting biomass energy at much larger scales than current experience are also incorporated into the modeling. From the scenario results, 120-160 EJ/year of biomass energy is produced by midcentury and 200-250 EJ/year by the end of this century. In the first half of the century, much of this biomass is from agricultural and forest residues, but after 2050 dedicated cellulosic biomass crops become the dominant source. A key finding of this paper is the role that carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technologies coupled with commercial biomass energy can play in meeting stringent emissions targets. Despite the higher technology costs of CCS, the resulting negative emissions used in combination with biomass are a very important tool in controlling the cost of meeting a target, offsetting the venting of CO2 from sectors of the energy system that may be more expensive to mitigate, such as oil use in transportation. The paper also discusses the role of cellulosic ethanol and Fischer-Tropsch biomass derived transportation fuels and shows that both technologies are important contributors to liquid fuels production, with unique costs and emissions characteristics. Through application of the GCAM integrated assessment model, it becomes clear that, given CCS availability, bioenergy will be used both in electricity and transportation.

  2. Co-creation of climate change mitigation policies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hoff, Jens Villiam

    The focus of this paper is on the places where citizens and public authorities meet – possible involving other stakeholders as well – to discuss, formulate and implement climate change mitigation policies at the local level. Through looking at a number of concrete cases stemming from the CIDEA re...... mitigation policies should be aimed at finding ways to support citizen initiated initiatives to a greater extent than is currently the case. Keywords: climate change mitigation, co-creation, behaviour, communities, citizen driven innovation....

  3. Valuation of climate change mitigation co-benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bakhtiari, Fatemeh

    a broad range of economic or, more likely, environmental and social issues. Examples of positive environmental impacts that may not be the primary outcome of a climate change mitigation policy include reduced local air pollution or restored ecosystem health. Examples of positive social impacts include......This document describes tools for valuating in monetary terms the co-benefits associated with climate change mitigation actions. The term co-benefits refers to outcomes of those actions other than their primary outcome (reducing greenhouse-gas emissions). Such non-primary outcomes can fall under...... improved human health or increased access to clean energy....

  4. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  5. Mitigation technologies and measures in energy sector of Kazakstan

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pilifosova, O.; Danchuk, D.; Temertekov, T. [and others

    1996-12-31

    An important commitment in the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is to conduct mitigation analysis and to communicate climate change measures and policies. In major part reducing CO{sub 2} as well as the other greenhouse gas emissions in Kazakstan, can be a side-product of measures addressed to increasing energy efficiency. Since such measures are very important for the national economy, mitigation strategies in the energy sector of Kazakstan are directly connected with the general national strategy of the energy sector development. This paper outlines the main measures and technologies in energy sector of Kazakstan which can lead to GHG emissions reduction and presents the results of current mitigation assessment. The mitigation analysis is addressed to energy production sector. A baseline and six mitigation scenarios were developed to evaluate the most attractive mitigation options, focusing on specific technologies which have been already included in sustainable energy programs. According to the baseline projection, Kazakstan`s CO{sub 2} emissions will not exceed their 1990 level until 2005. The potential for CO{sub 2} emission reduction is estimated to be about 11 % of the base line emission level by the end of considered period (in 2020). The main mitigation options in the energy production sector in terms of mitigation potential and technical and economical feasibility include rehabilitation of thermal power plants aimed to increasing efficiency, use of nuclear energy and further expansion in the use of hydro energy based on small hydroelectric power plants.

  6. Assessment of pathways to reduce CO2 emissions from passenger car fleets: Case study in Ireland

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alam, Md. Saniul; Hyde, Bernard; Duffy, Paul; McNabola, Aonghus

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • Integration of models provides a robust estimation of tailpipe CO 2 emissions. • Taxation impact of vehicle fleet dieselisation was modelled. • A scenario development approach was proposed for policy analysis. • EV provided the largest cost saving option than that of the other fuel technologies. - Abstract: This study modelled the Passenger (PC) fleet and other categories of road transport in Ireland from 2015 to 2035 to assess the impact of current and potential greenhouse gas mitigation policies on CO 2 emissions. Scenarios included the shift of purchasing towards diesel PCs over gasoline PCs. Scrappage rates were also calculated and applied to the fleet to predict future sales of PCs. Seven future policy scenarios were examined using different penetrations of PC sales for different vehicle technologies under current and alternative bio-fuel obligations. Tank to Wheel (T2W) tailpipe and Well to Wheel (W2W) CO 2 emissions, and energy demand were modelled using COPERT 4v11.3 and a recently published W2W CO 2 emissions model. A percentage reduction of conventional diesel and petrol vehicles, in different scenarios compared to a baseline scenario in the W2W model was applied to estimate the likely changes in T2W emissions at the tailpipe up to 2035. The results revealed that the biofuel policy scenario was insufficient in achieving a significant reduction of CO 2 emissions. However, without a fixed reduction target for CO 2 from the road transport sector, the success of policy scenarios in the long run is difficult to compare. The current Electric vehicle (EV) policy in Ireland is required to be implemented to reduce CO 2 emissions by a significant level. Results also show that a similar achievement of CO 2 emission reduction could be possible by using alternative vehicle technologies with higher abatement cost. However, as EV based policies have not been successful so far, Ireland may need to search for alternative pathways.

  7. Analysis of motorcycle fleet in Hanoi for estimation of air pollution emission and climate mitigation co-benefit of technology implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim Oanh, Nguyen Thi; Thuy Phuong, Mai Thi; Permadi, Didin Agustian

    2012-11-01

    A fleet of over two million motorcycles (MC) in Hanoi is believed to contribute a substantial emission of air pollutants and climate forcers but has not been thoroughly characterized. This study conducted a survey of the MC technologies and activities in Hanoi using questionnaires, GPS monitoring, and video camera in 2008. The data were collected for three typical road types (highways, arterials, residential streets) in 3 zones of the city. Majority of MC in Hanoi were relatively new (3.6 years), had 4-stroke engine, but only 6% was equipped with catalyst exhaust control devices. About 35% of the fleet did not comply with any EURO standards. The MC daily driving was 20 km, mostly done on arterial streets. The main driving features in Hanoi arterials and residential streets were of low speeds with frequent starts/stops and idling. International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model produced adjusted emission factors (EFs) that were compared with the limited available measurement data. The fleet emission was estimated for 2008 as a base case and for two “what-if” faster technology implementation scenarios: scenario 1 assumed that the entire fleet in 2008 conformed at least EURO2 and scenario 2 assumed 100% MC met the EURO3 standard. Total emissions from the fleet in 2008 of CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, PM10, and CH4 were 158, 51.5, 9.5, 0.17, 2.4 and 9.5 kt, respectively. Emissions of 1,3-butadiene, acetaldehydes, formaldehydes and benzene were 0.26, 1.2, 4.9 and 2.1 kt, respectively. Faster EURO3 technology intrusion in scenario 2 would significantly reduce the emission of pollutants (by 53-94%) and climate forcers in CO2-equivalent (53% for 20-year and 38% for 100-year horizon), which tripled the reductions obtained under scenario 1. Substantial co-benefits for air quality and climate forcer mitigation could be achieved by the faster technology implementation.

  8. Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

  9. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century - Part 2: Climate change mitigation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, M. I.; Edmonds, J.; Clarke, L.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E.; Chaturvedi, V.; Eom, J.; Wise, M.; Patel, P.; Calvin, K.

    2013-03-01

    We investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity both globally and regionally using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. Three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m-2 in year 2095 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), under two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The results are compared to a baseline scenario (i.e. no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m-2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) by 2095. When compared to the baseline scenario and maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095 particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. The decreasing trend with UCT policy stringency is due to substitution from more water-intensive to less water-intensive choices in food and energy production, and in land use. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops. This study implies an increasingly prominent role for water availability in future human decisions, and highlights the importance of including water in integrated assessment of global change. Future research will be directed at incorporating water shortage feedbacks in GCAM to better understand how such stresses will propagate across the various human and natural systems in GCAM.

  10. Evaluation of lifecycle CO2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century under various nuclear scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tokimatsu, Koji; Kosugi, Takanobu; Asami, Takayoshi; Williams, Eric; Kaya, Yoichi

    2006-01-01

    The status and prospects of the development of Japanese nuclear power are controversial and uncertain. Many deem that nuclear power can play key roles in both supplying energy and abating CO 2 emissions; however, due to severe nuclear accidents, public acceptance of nuclear power in Japan has not been fully obtained. Moreover, deregulation and liberalization of the electricity market impose pressure on large Japanese electric power companies with regard to both the operation of nuclear power plants and the development of the nuclear fuel cycle. Long-term Japanese CO 2 reduction strategies up to 2100 are of environmental concern and are socially demanded under the circumstances described above. Taking these factors into account, we set the following two objectives for this study. One is to estimate lifecycle CO 2 (LCCO 2 ) emissions from Japanese nuclear power, and the other is to evaluate CO 2 emissions from the Japanese electric power sector in the 21st century by quantifying the relationship between LCCO 2 emissions and scenarios for the adoption of nuclear power. In the pursuit of the above objectives, we first create four scenarios of Japanese adoption of nuclear power, that range from nuclear power promotion to phase-out. Next, we formulate four scenarios describing the mix of the total electricity supply in Japan till the year 2100 corresponding to each of these nuclear power scenarios. CO 2 emissions from the electric power sector in Japan till the year 2100 are estimated by summing those generated by each respective electric power technology and LCCO 2 emission intensity. The LCCO 2 emission intensity of nuclear power for both light water reactors (LWR) and fast breeder reactors (FBR) includes the uranium fuel production chain, facility construction/operation/decommission, and spent fuel processing/disposal. From our investigations, we conclude that the promotion of nuclear power is clearly a strong option for reducing CO 2 emissions by the electric power

  11. Climate change mitigation in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Bo

    2012-07-01

    China has been experiencing great economic development and fast urbanisation since its reforms and opening-up policy in 1978. However, these changes are reliant on consumption of primary energy, especially coal, characterised by high pollution and low efficiency. China's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) being the most significant contributor, have also been increasing rapidly in the past three decades. Responding to both domestic challenges and international pressure regarding energy, climate change and environment, the Chinese government has made a point of addressing climate change since the early 2000s. This thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of China's CO{sub 2} emissions and policy instruments for mitigating climate change. In the analysis, China's CO{sub 2} emissions in recent decades were reviewed and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis examined. Using the mostly frequently studied macroeconomic factors and time-series data for the period of 1980-2008, the existence of an EKC relationship between CO{sub 2} per capita and GDP per capita was verified. However, China's CO{sub 2} emissions will continue to grow over coming decades and the turning point in overall CO{sub 2} emissions will appear in 2078 according to a crude projection. More importantly, CO{sub 2} emissions will not spontaneously decrease if China continues to develop its economy without mitigating climate change. On the other hand, CO{sub 2} emissions could start to decrease if substantial efforts are made. China's present mitigation target, i.e. to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 compared with the 2005 level, was then evaluated. Three business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios were developed and compared with the level of emissions according to the mitigation target. The calculations indicated that decreasing the CO{sub 2} intensity of GDP by 40-45 % by 2020 is a challenging but hopeful target. To

  12. Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO2 Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gregory Kremer; David J. Bayless; Morgan Vis; Michael Prudich; Keith Cooksey; Jeff Muhs

    2006-01-15

    This final report highlights significant achievements in the Enhanced Practical Photosynthetic CO{sub 2} Mitigation Project during the period from 10/1/2001 through 01/02/2006. As indicated in the list of accomplishments below, our efforts during this project were focused on the selection of candidate organisms and growth surfaces and initiating long-term tests in the bench-scale and pilot-scale bioreactor test systems. Specific results and accomplishments for the program include: (1) CRF-2 test system: (a) Sampling test results have shown that the initial mass of algae loaded into the Carbon Recycling Facility Version 2 (CRF-2) system can be estimated with about 3% uncertainty using a statistical sampling procedure. (b) The pressure shim header pipe insert design was shown to have better flow for harvesting than the drilled-hole design. (c) The CRF-2 test system has undergone major improvements to produce the high flow rates needed for harvesting (as determined by previous experiments). The main changes to the system are new stainless steel header/frame units, with increased flow capacity and a modified pipe-end-sealing method to improve flow uniformity, and installation and plumbing for a new high flow harvesting pump. Qualitative system tests showed that the harvesting system performed wonderfully, cleaning the growth surfaces within a matter of seconds. (d) Qualitative tests have shown that organisms can be repopulated on a harvested section of a bioreactor screen, demonstrating that continuous bioreactor operation is feasible, with continuous cycles of harvesting and repopulating screens. (e) Final preparations are underway for quantitative, long-term tests in the CRF-2 with weekly harvesting. (2) Pilot-scale test system: (a) The construction of the pilot-scale bioreactor was completed, including the solar collector and light distribution system. Over the course of the project, the solar collector used in the light delivery system showed some degradation, but

  13. Fiscal 1996 survey of potential international cooperation for a long-term scenario on CO2 reduction; 1996 nendo CO2 sakugen ni kakawaru choki shinario ni kansuru kokusai kyoryoku kanosei chosa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    For the purpose of working out a CO2 reduction scenario and a CO2 policy introduction scenario, a survey was conducted of comparisons between ten and several models which are world-known and models of the New Earth 21, potential international cooperation to be carried out in the future, etc. The survey included organizations which are developing CO2 policy evaluation models, survey reports made in the past, details of literature for the analysis and arrangement. From the result, details of the questionnaire survey and organizations to be surveyed were decided on for the questionnaire survey. Objects for the survey were 7 countries and 22 organizations, and survey items were places for information exchange, sending/receiving of researchers, exchange of input data, comparative calculation based on the common database, joint research work, economy, the carbon tax, impact, renewable energy, how to handle and think of the carbon isolation, etc. As a result of the survey, proposed were a workshop on CO2 reduction, a comparative study of simulation models, etc. 25 refs., 50 figs., 12 tabs.

  14. Short-term effects of CO2 leakage on the soil bacterial community in a simulated gas leakage scenario.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jing; Zhang, Wangyuan; Zhang, Shaoliang; Zhu, Qianlin; Feng, Qiyan; Chen, Fu

    2017-01-01

    The technology of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage (CCS) has provided a new option for mitigating global anthropogenic emissions with unique advantages. However, the potential risk of gas leakage from CO 2 sequestration and utilization processes has attracted considerable attention. Moreover, leakage might threaten soil ecosystems and thus cannot be ignored. In this study, a simulation experiment of leakage from CO 2 geological storage was designed to investigate the short-term effects of different CO 2 leakage concentration (from 400 g m -2 day -1 to 2,000 g m -2 day -1 ) on soil bacterial communities. A shunt device and adjustable flow meter were used to control the amount of CO 2 injected into the soil. Comparisons were made between soil physicochemical properties, soil enzyme activities, and microbial community diversity before and after injecting different CO 2 concentrations. Increasing CO 2 concentration decreased the soil pH, and the largest variation ranged from 8.15 to 7.29 ( p soil CO 2 concentration increased. The dominant phylum in the soil samples was Proteobacteria , whose proportion rose rapidly from 28.85% to 67.93%. In addition, the proportion of Acidobacteria decreased from 19.64% to 9.29% ( p soil ecosystems.

  15. Elevated CO2-mitigation of high temperature stress associated with maintenance of positive carbon balance and carbohydrate accumulation in Kentucky bluegrass.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Yali; Yu, Jingjin; Huang, Bingru

    2014-01-01

    Elevated CO2 concentration may promote plant growth while high temperature is inhibitory for C3 plant species. The interactive effects of elevated CO2 and high temperatures on C3 perennial grass growth and carbon metabolism are not well documented. Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis) plants were exposed to two CO2 levels (400 and 800 μmol mol-1) and five temperatures (15/12, 20/17, 25/22, 30/27, 35/32°C, day/night) in growth chambers. Increasing temperatures to 25°C and above inhibited leaf photosynthetic rate (Pn) and shoot and root growth, but increased leaf respiration rate (R), leading to a negative carbon balance and a decline in soluble sugar content under ambient CO2. Elevated CO2 did not cause shift of optimal temperatures in Kentucky bluegrass, but promoted Pn, shoot and root growth under all levels of temperature (15, 20, 25, 30, and 35°C) and mitigated the adverse effects of severe high temperatures (30 and 35°C). Elevated CO2-mitigation of adverse effects of high temperatures on Kentucky bluegrass growth could be associated with the maintenance of a positive carbon balance and the accumulation of soluble sugars and total nonstructural carbohydrates through stimulation of Pn and suppression of R and respiratory organic acid metabolism.

  16. Modeling of CO2 migration injected in Weyburn oil reservoir

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou Wei; Stenhouse, M.J.; Arthur, R.

    2008-01-01

    Injecting CO 2 into oil and gas field is a way to enhance oil recovery (EOR) as well as mitigate global warming effect by permanently storing the greenhouse gas into underground. This paper details the models and results of simulating the long-term migration of CO 2 injected into the Weyburn field for both Enhanced Oil Recovery operations and CO 2 sequestration. A System Model was established to define the spatial and temporal extents of the analysis. The Base Scenario was developed to identify key processes, features, and events (FEPs) for the expected evolution of the storage system. A compositional reservoir simulator with equations-of-states (EOS) was used as the modeling tool in order to simulate multiphase, multi-component flow and transport coupled with CO 2 mass partitioning into oil, gas, and water phases. We apply a deterministic treatment to CO 2 migration in the geosphere (natural pathways), whereas the variability of abandoned wells (man-made pathways) necessitates a stochastic treatment. The simulation result was then used to carry out consequence analysis to the local environment. (authors)

  17. MITIGATION SCENARIOS FOR RESIDENTIAL FIRES IN DENSELY POPULATED URBAN SETTLEMENTS IN SUKAHAJI VILLAGE, BANDUNG CITY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saut Aritua Hasiholan Sagala

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Residential fires are a form of disaster that often occurs in urban areas especially in densely populated settlements. This study looks at possible mitigation scenarios for this kind of disaster. A case study was conducted in Babakan Ciparay Sub-District in Bandung City, among the densely populated settlements, and was focused especially on Sukahaji Village, a sub-unit of Babakan Ciparay, which is the most densely populated village in Bandung City with up to 234.14 people/ha. There have been six structural fires recorded from 2007 until 2010 occurring in Sukahaji. This study applied stratified random sampling as the preferred sampling technique and data collection method from a total population of 3,227 buildings. The data was then examined using risk analysis. The results have led to two intervention measures suggested as mitigation scenarios for residential fires that can be applied within the Sukahaji Village. The study concludes that mitigation measures through strengthening community capacity can be the principal option in reducing risk to fires in densely populated urban settlements.

  18. Observations of CO{sub 2} clathrate hydrate formation and dissolution under deep-ocean disposal conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Warzinski, R.P.; Cugini, A.V. [Department of Energy, Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Holder, G.D. [Univ. of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1995-11-01

    Disposal of anthropogenic emissions of CO{sub 2} may be required to mitigate rises in atmospheric levels of this greenhouse gas if other measures are ineffective and the worst global warming scenarios begin to occur. Long-term storage of large quantities of CO{sub 2} has been proposed, but the feasibility of large land and ocean disposal options remains to be established. Determining the fate of liquid CO{sub 2} injected into the ocean at depths greater than 500 m is complicated by uncertainties associated with the physical behavior of CO{sub 2} under these conditions, in particular the possible formation of the ice-like CO{sub 2} clathrate hydrate. Resolving this issue is key to establishing the technical feasibility of this option. Experimental and theoretical work in this area is reported.

  19. Deep Sea Memory of High Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathesius, Sabine; Hofmann, Matthias; Caldeira, Ken; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2015-04-01

    Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a powerful measure to mitigate global warming and ocean acidification. Planetary-scale interventions of that kind are often portrayed as "last-resort strategies", which need to weigh in if humankind keeps on enhancing the climate-system stock of CO2. Yet even if CDR could restore atmospheric CO2 to substantially lower concentrations, would it really qualify to undo the critical impacts of past emissions? In the study presented here, we employed an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) to investigate how CDR might erase the emissions legacy in the marine environment, focusing on pH, temperature and dissolved oxygen. Against a background of a world following the RCP8.5 emissions path ("business-as-usual") for centuries, we simulated the effects of two massive CDR interventions with CO2 extraction rates of 5 GtC yr-1 and 25 GtC yr-1, respectively, starting in 2250. We found that the 5 GtC yr-1 scheme would have only minor ameliorative influence on the oceans, even after several centuries of application. By way of contrast, the extreme 25 GtC yr-1 scheme eventually leads to tangible improvements. However, even with such an aggressive measure, past CO2 emissions leave a substantial legacy in the marine environment within the simulated period (i.e., until 2700). In summary, our study demonstrates that anthropogenic alterations of the oceans, caused by continued business-as-usual emissions, may not be reversed on a multi-centennial time scale by the most aspirational geoengineering measures. We also found that a transition from the RCP8.5 state to the state of a strong mitigation scenario (RCP2.6) is not possible, even under the assumption of extreme extraction rates (25 GtC yr-1). This is explicitly demonstrated by simulating additional scenarios, starting CDR already in 2150 and operating until the atmospheric CO2 concentration reaches 280 ppm and 180 ppm, respectively. The simulated

  20. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

  1. Cocoa Intensification Scenarios and Their Predicted Impact on CO2 Emissions, Biodiversity Conservation, and Rural Livelihoods in the Guinea Rain Forest of West Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gockowski, Jim; Sonwa, Denis

    2011-08-01

    The Guinean rain forest (GRF) of West Africa, identified over 20 years ago as a global biodiversity hotspot, had reduced to 113,000 km2 at the start of the new millennium which was 18% of its original area. The principal driver of this environmental change has been the expansion of extensive smallholder agriculture. From 1988 to 2007, the area harvested in the GRF by smallholders of cocoa, cassava, and oil palm increased by 68,000 km2. Field results suggest a high potential for significantly increasing crop yields through increased application of seed-fertilizer technologies. Analyzing land-use change scenarios, it was estimated that had intensified cocoa technology, already developed in the 1960s, been pursued in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon that over 21,000 km2 of deforestation and forest degradation could have been avoided along with the emission of nearly 1.4 billion t of CO2. Addressing the low productivity of agriculture in the GRF should be one of the principal objectives of REDD climate mitigation programs.

  2. Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi May Mitigate the Influence of a Joint Rise of Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 on Soil Respiration in Grasslands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vicca, S.; Zavalloni, C.; Fu, Y.S.H.; Ceulemans, R.; Nijs, I.; Janssens, I.A.; Voets, L.; Boulois, H.D.D.; Declerck, S.

    2009-01-01

    We investigated the effects of mycorrhizal colonization and future climate on roots and soil respiration (R soil) in model grassland ecosystems. We exposed artificial grassland communities on pasteurized soil (no living arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) present) and on pasteurized soil subsequently inoculated with AMF to ambient conditions and to a combination of elevated CO 2 and temperature (future climate scenario). After one growing season, the inoculated soil revealed a positive climate effect on AMF root colonization and this elicited a significant AMF x climate scenario interaction on root biomass. Whereas the future climate scenario tended to increase root biomass in the non inoculated soil, the inoculated soil revealed a 30% reduction of root biomass under warming at elevated CO 2 (albeit not significant). This resulted in a diminished response of R soil to simulated climatic change, suggesting that AMF may contribute to an attenuated stimulation of R soil in a warmer, high CO 2 world.

  3. Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi May Mitigate the Influence of a Joint Rise of Temperature and Atmospheric CO2 on Soil Respiration in Grasslands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Vicca

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the effects of mycorrhizal colonization and future climate on roots and soil respiration (Rsoil in model grassland ecosystems. We exposed artificial grassland communities on pasteurized soil (no living arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF present and on pasteurized soil subsequently inoculated with AMF to ambient conditions and to a combination of elevated CO2 and temperature (future climate scenario. After one growing season, the inoculated soil revealed a positive climate effect on AMF root colonization and this elicited a significant AMF x climate scenario interaction on root biomass. Whereas the future climate scenario tended to increase root biomass in the noninoculated soil, the inoculated soil revealed a 30% reduction of root biomass under warming at elevated CO2 (albeit not significant. This resulted in a diminished response of Rsoil to simulated climatic change, suggesting that AMF may contribute to an attenuated stimulation of Rsoil in a warmer, high CO2 world.

  4. Energy Technology Roll-Out for Climate Change Mitigation: A Multi-Model Study for Latin America

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van der Zwaan, B.; Kober, T.; Calderon, S.; Clarke, L.; Daenzer, K.; Kitous, A.; Labriet, M.; Lucena, A.F.P.; Octaviano, C.; Di Sbroiavacca, N.

    In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be

  5. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soerensen, B.; Meibom, P.; Kuemmel, B.

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  6. Long-term scenarios for global energy demand and supply. Four global greenhouse mitigation scenarios. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soerensen, B; Meibom, P [Technical Univ. of Denmark, Lyngby (Denmark); Kuemmel, B [Royal Agricultural and Veterinary Univ., Tastrup (Denmark)

    1999-01-01

    The scenario method is used to investigate energy demand and supply systems for the 21st century. A geographical information system (GIS) is employed to assess the spatial match between supply and demand, and the robustness of the scenario against changes in assumptions is discussed, for scenarios using fossil fuels without carbon dioxide emissions, nuclear fuels with reduced accident and proliferation risks, and renewable energy from local and from more centralised installations: The year 2050 demand scenario is based on a very high goal satisfaction in all regions of the world, for the middle UN population projection. All energy efficiency measures that are technically ready and economic today are assumed in effect by year 2050. An increased fraction of total activities are assumed to occur in non-material sectors. Technical, economic and implementation issues are discussed, including the resilience to changes in particularly demand assumptions and the type of framework that would allow energy policy to employ any of (or a mix of) the scenario options. Results are presented as average energy flows per unit of land area. This geographically based presentation method gives additional insights, particularly for the dispersed renewable energy systems, but in all cases it allows to identify the need for energy transmission and trade between regions, and to display it in a visually suggestive fashion. The scenarios are examples of greenhouse mitigation scenarios, all characterised by near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. All are more expensive than the present system, but only if the cost of the negative impacts from the current system is neglected. As options for global energy policy during the next decades, the clean fossil and the renewable energy options (possibly in combination) are the only realistic ones, because the safe nuclear option requires research and development that most likely will take longer time, if it can at all be carried

  7. Elevated CO2 did not mitigate the effect of a short-term drought on biological soil crusts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wertin, Timothy M.; Phillips, Susan L.; Reed, Sasha C.; Belnap, Jayne

    2012-01-01

    Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are critical components of arid and semi-arid ecosystems that contribute significantly to carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) fixation, water retention, soil stability, and seedling recruitment. While dry-land ecosystems face a number of environmental changes, our understanding of how biocrusts may respond to such perturbation remains notably poor. To determine the effect that elevated CO2 may have on biocrust composition, cover, and function, we measured percent soil surface cover, effective quantum yield, and pigment concentrations of naturally occurring biocrusts growing in ambient and elevated CO2 at the desert study site in Nevada, USA, from spring 2005 through spring 2007. During the experiment, a year-long drought allowed us to explore the interacting effects that elevated CO2 and water availability may have on biocrust cover and function. We found that, regardless of CO2 treatment, precipitation was the major regulator of biocrust cover. Drought reduced moss and lichen cover to near-zero in both ambient and elevated CO2 plots, suggesting that elevated CO2 did not alleviate water stress or increase C fixation to levels sufficient to mitigate drought-induced reduction in cover. In line with this result, lichen quantum yield and soil cyanobacteria pigment concentrations appeared more strongly dependent upon recent precipitation than CO2 treatment, although we did find evidence that, when hydrated, elevated CO2 increased lichen C fixation potential. Thus, an increase in atmospheric CO2 may only benefit biocrusts if overall climate patterns shift to create a wetter soil environment.

  8. Low-CO(2) electricity and hydrogen: a help or hindrance for electric and hydrogen vehicles?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallington, T J; Grahn, M; Anderson, J E; Mueller, S A; Williander, M I; Lindgren, K

    2010-04-01

    The title question was addressed using an energy model that accounts for projected global energy use in all sectors (transportation, heat, and power) of the global economy. Global CO(2) emissions were constrained to achieve stabilization at 400-550 ppm by 2100 at the lowest total system cost (equivalent to perfect CO(2) cap-and-trade regime). For future scenarios where vehicle technology costs were sufficiently competitive to advantage either hydrogen or electric vehicles, increased availability of low-cost, low-CO(2) electricity/hydrogen delayed (but did not prevent) the use of electric/hydrogen-powered vehicles in the model. This occurs when low-CO(2) electricity/hydrogen provides more cost-effective CO(2) mitigation opportunities in the heat and power energy sectors than in transportation. Connections between the sectors leading to this counterintuitive result need consideration in policy and technology planning.

  9. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-12-01

    The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the first set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed

  10. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, Henrik; Caballero, Rodrigo

    2017-08-01

    Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario) and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2-thin clouds or LCTC scenario) . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has ˜ 11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  11. Coal and energy security for India: Role of carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, Amit; Shukla, P.R.

    2009-01-01

    Coal is the abundant domestic energy resource in India and is projected to remain so in future under a business-as-usual scenario. Using domestic coal mitigates national energy security risks. However coal use exacerbates global climate change. Under a strict climate change regime, coal use is projected to decline in future. However this would increase imports of energy sources like natural gas (NG) and nuclear and consequent energy security risks for India. The paper shows that carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and storage (CCS) can mitigate CO 2 emissions from coal-based large point source (LPS) clusters and therefore would play a key role in mitigating both energy security risks for India and global climate change risks. This paper estimates future CO 2 emission projections from LPS in India, identifies the potential CO 2 storage types at aggregate level and matches the two into the future using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Local model) with a Geographical Information System (GIS) interface. The paper argues that clustering LPS that are close to potential storage sites could provide reasonable economic opportunities for CCS in future if storage sites of different types are further explored and found to have adequate capacity. The paper also indicates possible LPS locations to utilize CCS opportunities economically in future, especially since India is projected to add over 220,000 MW of thermal power generation capacity by 2030.

  12. Environmental potential of the use of CO_2 from alcoholic fermentation processes. The CO_2-AFP strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alonso-Moreno, Carlos; García-Yuste, Santiago

    2016-01-01

    A novel Carbon Dioxide Utilization (CDU) approach from a relatively minor CO_2 emission source, i.e., alcoholic fermentation processes (AFP), is presented. The CO_2 produced as a by-product from the AFP is estimated by examining the EtOH consumed per year reported by the World Health Organization in 2014. It is proposed that the extremely pure CO_2 from the AFP is captured in NaOH solutions to produce one of the Top 10 commodities in the chemical industry, Na_2CO_3, as a good example of an atomic economy process. The novel CDU strategy could yield over 30.6 Mt of Na_2CO_3 in oversaturated aqueous solution on using ca. 12.7 Mt of captured CO_2 and this process would consume less energy than the synthetic methodology (Solvay ammonia soda process) and would not produce low-value by-products. The quantity of Na_2CO_3 obtained by this strategy could represent ca. 50% of the world Na_2CO_3 production in one year. In terms of the green economy, the viability of the strategy is discussed according to the recommendations of the CO_2Chem network, and an estimation of the CO_2negative emission achieved suggests a capture of around 280.0 Mt of CO_2 from now to 2020 or ca. 1.9 Gt from now to 2050. Finally, the results obtained for this new CDU proposal are discussed by considering different scenarios; the CO_2 production in a typical winemaking corporation, the CO_2 released in the most relevant wine-producing countries, and the use of CO_2 from AFP as an alternative for the top Na_2CO_3-producing countries. - Highlights: • A new CDU strategy to mitigate the CO_2 in the atmosphere is assessed. • An environmental action towards negligible emission sources such as AFP. • The waste CO_2 from AFP could be converted into Na_2CO_3. • Capture 12.7 Mt yr"–"1 of CO_2 to generate ca. 1.9 Gt of CO_2negative emissions by 2050.

  13. Report on a survey in fiscal 1999. Survey on electric power systems for reducing CO2 emission (an approach to scenario analyses); 1999 nendo CO{sub 2} sakugen no tame no denryoku system ni kansuru chosa hokokusho. Scenario kaiseki no approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    The purpose of this survey is to extract by using scenario analyses the unreliable factors having great influence on change in the Japanese power supply configurations, and verify how the unreliability of these factors would affect the future structures and what the resultant ratio of the power mixes would be in the future. The survey is also intended to verify, through a series of work of calculating how much CO2 emission quantity would be changed in the stage of the year 2012 in each power supply configuration, whether or not the approach by using the scenario analyses will provide information sufficiently reasonable to judge policies to realize reduction in CO2 emission around the electric power business. Although including many hypotheses and vagueness, the trial calculation subjected to each scenario prepared presently suggested that it is not possible to accomplish the target of reducing 9% from the 1990 emission level only by the single efforts inside Japan. This result shows the same contents and directionality that are shown by the results of a large number of surveys. However, the result has created a common recognition among the participants that {sup t}here is a possibility that some kind of effective countermeasures could be discovered{sup .} (NEDO)

  14. Analysis on long-term perspective of nuclear energy in the global energy system in terms of CO2 mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugiyama, T.; Uotani, M.

    2001-01-01

    The value of nuclear energy is analyzed for prevention of global warming and climate change by means of a global energy model, which finds the cost minimum energy system over the time range of 2000 - 2100. Six scenarios are examined in this analysis, considering two scenarios of economic growth rate, two scenarios of electrification rate, and FBR introduction or not. The results indicate that progress of electricity generation is the key to reduce the global CO 2 emission, and the role of FBRs with its nuclear fuel cycle is very robust against any economic conditions. (author)

  15. Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couce, E.; Irvine, P. J.; Gregorie, L. J.; Ridgwell, A.; Hendy, E. J.

    2013-05-01

    Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of solar radiation management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various representative concentration pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m2. The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. "Optimal" mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m2 because tropical SSTs overcool in a fully geoengineered (i.e., preindustrial global mean temperature) world.

  16. Catalysis for biomass and CO2 use through solar energy: opening new scenarios for a sustainable and low-carbon chemical production.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lanzafame, Paola; Centi, Gabriele; Perathoner, Siglinda

    2014-11-21

    The use of biomass, bio-waste and CO2 derived raw materials, the latter synthesized using H2 produced using renewable energy sources, opens new scenarios to develop a sustainable and low carbon chemical production, particularly in regions such as Europe lacking in other resources. This tutorial review discusses first this new scenario with the aim to point out, between the different possible options, those more relevant to enable this new future scenario for the chemical production, commenting in particular the different drivers (economic, technological and strategic, environmental and sustainability and socio-political) which guide the selection. The case of the use of non-fossil fuel based raw materials for the sustainable production of light olefins is discussed in more detail, but the production of other olefins and polyolefins, of drop-in intermediates and other platform molecules are also analysed. The final part discusses the role of catalysis in establishing this new scenario, summarizing the development of catalysts with respect to industrial targets, for (i) the production of light olefins by catalytic dehydration of ethanol and by CO2 conversion via FTO process, (ii) the catalytic synthesis of butadiene from ethanol, butanol and butanediols, and (iii) the catalytic synthesis of HMF and its conversion to 2,5-FDCA, adipic acid, caprolactam and 1,6-hexanediol.

  17. Co2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michelini, M.

    2001-01-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC [it

  18. Atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate impacts of alternative warming scenarios for the Eocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Carlson

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Recent work in modelling the warm climates of the early Eocene shows that it is possible to obtain a reasonable global match between model surface temperature and proxy reconstructions, but only by using extremely high atmospheric CO2 concentrations or more modest CO2 levels complemented by a reduction in global cloud albedo. Understanding the mix of radiative forcing that gave rise to Eocene warmth has important implications for constraining Earth's climate sensitivity, but progress in this direction is hampered by the lack of direct proxy constraints on cloud properties. Here, we explore the potential for distinguishing among different radiative forcing scenarios via their impact on regional climate changes. We do this by comparing climate model simulations of two end-member scenarios: one in which the climate is warmed entirely by CO2 (which we refer to as the greenhouse gas (GHG scenario and another in which it is warmed entirely by reduced cloud albedo (which we refer to as the low CO2–thin clouds or LCTC scenario . The two simulations have an almost identical global-mean surface temperature and equator-to-pole temperature difference, but the LCTC scenario has  ∼  11 % greater global-mean precipitation than the GHG scenario. The LCTC scenario also has cooler midlatitude continents and warmer oceans than the GHG scenario and a tropical climate which is significantly more El Niño-like. Extremely high warm-season temperatures in the subtropics are mitigated in the LCTC scenario, while cool-season temperatures are lower at all latitudes. These changes appear large enough to motivate further, more detailed study using other climate models and a more realistic set of modelling assumptions.

  19. Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, S.; Nicholls, R. J.; Goodwin, P.; Haigh, I. D.; Lincke, D.; Vafeidis, A. T.; Hinkel, J.

    2018-03-01

    We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea-level scenarios, together with a non-mitigation sea-level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector model. We find sea-level rise (SLR) continues to accelerate post-2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modeling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under SLR and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 × 103 km2. By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 × 103 and 640 × 103 km2 (580 × 103 and 700 × 103 km2 for the 5th and 95th percentiles). Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 × 103 and 960 × 103 km2 in 2300 (610 × 103 and 1290 × 103 km2) for the mitigation scenarios, but 1630 × 103 km2 (1190 × 103 and 2220 × 103 km2) for the non-mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to SLR in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% (1.2%-7.6%) (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non-mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea-levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.

  20. CO2 footprint 2008 District Oud-Zuid, Amsterdam, Netherlands; CO2-voetafdruk 2008 Stadsdeel Oud-Zuid [Amsterdam

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hanekamp, E; Van Merksteijn, C [Partners for Innovation, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

    2009-06-15

    The district 'Oud-Zuid' in Amsterdam, Netherlands, plans to become CO2 neutral in 2015. For this purpose, the CO2 footprint of the district is determined and a plan of action developed. By means of scenarios, the district council can make choices for climate investments [Dutch] Stadsdeel Oud-Zuid van de gemeente Amsterdam wil CO2-neutraal zijn in 2015. Daartoe is de CO2-voetafdruk van Oud-Zuid bepaald en een plan van aanpak uitgewerkt. Met behulp van scenario's zal de stadsdeelraad keuzes kunnen maken over haar klimaatinvesteringen.

  1. An approach to mitigating soil CO2 emission by biochemically inhibiting cellulolytic microbial populations through mediation via the medicinal herb Isatis indigotica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Hong-Sheng; Chen, Su-Yun; Li, Ji; Liu, Dong-Yang; Zhou, Ji; Xu, Ya; Shang, Xiao-Xia; Wei, Dong-yang; Yu, Lu-ji; Fang, Xiao-hang; Li, Shun-yi; Wang, Ke-ke

    2017-06-01

    Greenhouse gases (GHGs, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2)) emissions from soil under wheat production are a significant source of agricultural carbon emissions that have not been mitigated effectively. A field experiment and a static incubation study in a lab were conducted to stimulate wheat growth and investigate its potential to reduce CO2 emissions from soil through intercropping with a traditional Chinese medicinal herb called Isatis indigotica. This work was conducted by adding I. indigotica root exudates based on the quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR) analysis of the DNA copy number of the rhizosphere or bulk soil microbial populations. This addition was performed in relation to the CO2 formation by cellulolytic microorganisms (Penicillium oxalicum, fungi and Ruminococcus albus) to elucidate the microbial ecological basis for the molecular mechanism that decreases CO2 emissions from wheat fields using I. indigotica. The results showed that the panicle weight and full grains per panicle measured through intercropping with I. indigotica (NPKWR) increased by 39% and 28.6%, respectively, compared to that of the CK (NPKW). Intercropping with I. indigotica significantly decreased the CO2 emissions from soil under wheat cultivation. Compared with CK, the total CO2 emission flux during the wheat growth period in the I. indigotica (NPKWR) intercropping treatment decreased by 29.26%. The intensity of CO2 emissions per kg of harvested wheat grain declined from 7.53 kg CO2/kg grain in the NPKW (CK) treatment to 5.55 kg CO2/kg grain in the NPKWR treatment. The qPCR analysis showed that the DNA copy number of the microbial populations of cellulolytic microorganisms (P. oxalicum, fungi and R. albus) in the field rhizosphere around I. indigotica or in the bulk soil under laboratory incubation was significantly lower than that of CK. This finding indicated that root exudates from I. indigotica inhibited the activity and number of cellulolytic microbial populations, which led

  2. Electricity system planning under the CO2 emission restriction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lim, Chae Young; Lee, Man Ki; Roh, Jae Hyung; Kim, Eun Hwan

    2004-01-01

    Objective of this study is to analyze how the restriction of CO 2 emission from power generation will affect the national electricity supply system. The role of nuclear power is investigated under the restriction of CO 2 emission in Korea. A simplified electricity system was modeled for the analysis. To analyze the impact of CO 2 emission restriction, 2 different scenarios were established and compared with the base scenario. The first scenario was 'CO 2 emission restriction with new nuclear power installation'. In this scenario, a CO 2 emission restriction of 0.11kg-C/kWh was imposed and there was no restriction on the nuclear power construction. While, in the second scenario, 'CO 2 emission restriction without new nuclear power installation' the same amount of CO 2 restriction was imposed with no consideration of nuclear power installation. It is found out that the current national emission target(0.11kg- C/kWh) in the electricity sector can not be achieved without nuclear and renewable(wind power) options considered

  3. Simulated effect of calcification feedback on atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Han; Cao, Long

    2016-01-01

    Ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 reduces pH and saturation state of calcium carbonate materials of seawater, which could reduce the calcification rate of some marine organisms, triggering a negative feedback on the growth of atmospheric CO2. We quantify the effect of this CO2-calcification feedback by conducting a series of Earth system model simulations that incorporate different parameterization schemes describing the dependence of calcification rate on saturation state of CaCO3. In a scenario with SRES A2 CO2 emission until 2100 and zero emission afterwards, by year 3500, in the simulation without CO2-calcification feedback, model projects an accumulated ocean CO2 uptake of 1462 PgC, atmospheric CO2 of 612 ppm, and surface pH of 7.9. Inclusion of CO2-calcification feedback increases ocean CO2 uptake by 9 to 285 PgC, reduces atmospheric CO2 by 4 to 70 ppm, and mitigates the reduction in surface pH by 0.003 to 0.06, depending on the form of parameterization scheme used. It is also found that the effect of CO2-calcification feedback on ocean carbon uptake is comparable and could be much larger than the effect from CO2-induced warming. Our results highlight the potentially important role CO2-calcification feedback plays in ocean carbon cycle and projections of future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. PMID:26838480

  4. Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thiel, Christian; Perujo, Adolfo; Mercier, Arnaud

    2010-01-01

    New electrified vehicle concepts are about to enter the market in Europe. The expected gains in environmental performance for these new vehicle types are associated with higher technology costs. In parallel, the fuel efficiency of internal combustion engine vehicles and hybrids is continuously improved, which in turn advances their environmental performance but also leads to additional technology costs versus today's vehicles. The present study compares the well-to-wheel CO 2 emissions, costs and CO 2 abatement costs of generic European cars, including a gasoline vehicle, diesel vehicle, gasoline hybrid, diesel hybrid, plug in hybrid and battery electric vehicle. The predictive comparison is done for the snapshots 2010, 2020 and 2030 under a new energy policy scenario for Europe. The results of the study show clearly that the electrification of vehicles offer significant possibilities to reduce specific CO 2 emissions in road transport, when supported by adequate policies to decarbonise the electricity generation. Additional technology costs for electrified vehicle types are an issue in the beginning, but can go down to enable payback periods of less than 5 years and very competitive CO 2 abatement costs, provided that market barriers can be overcome through targeted policy support that mainly addresses their initial cost penalty. (author)

  5. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-15

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO{sub 2} emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050

  6. Modeling and analysis of long-term energy scenarios for sustainable strategies of Ethiopia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Senshaw, Dereje Azemraw

    2014-04-01

    Despite robust economic growth, Ethiopia is one of the countries with poor energy accesses. Contributing factors are poor availability of energy, unreliable and insufficient quality of energy, and insufficient policy. Recognizing that energy access and security are indispensable to economic transformation, Ethiopia needs to cope with key challenges related to energy security, climate change mitigation and also diversification of energy supply. In order to achieve these targets and strive towards sustainable energy for all, Ethiopia's energy system requires a major transformation. The main achievement of this research has been the development of alternative energy options under different conditions for Ethiopia up to 2050. To identify an energy pathway that would meet Ethiopia's energy needs in a sustainable manner, three scenarios are considered: the business-as usual (BAU), moderate shift (Scenario1) and the advanced shift scenario (Scenario 2). The scenarios were developed, quantified and analyzed using a bottom-up model for Long Term Alternative Energy Planning (LEAP). These scenarios represent a range of energy policy measures that Ethiopia could adopt to achieve its sustainable development goals. The BAU scenario reflects a continuation of the current policy trend and considers on economic growth rate of 7%, while Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 represent moderate and advanced levels of commitment in economic growth, energy diversity and reduction of energy import dependency and CO 2 emissions limits, respectively. The scenario analysis shows that the primary energy requirements for Ethiopia's socio-economic development will increase sharply over the period (2010-2050) in all three scenarios. BAU, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2 show an expected to growth at annual rates of 4.1, 4.9 and 5.7% respectively. If the current policy trends (as represented by BAU) continue, the total energy demand in Ethiopia is expected to reach 6,553 Petajoule (PJ) by 2050 from

  7. [Research on soil bacteria under the impact of sealed CO2 leakage by high-throughput sequencing technology].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Di; Ma, Xin; Li, Yu-E; Zha, Liang-Song; Wu, Yang; Zou, Xiao-Xia; Liu, Shuang

    2013-10-01

    Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage has provided a new option for mitigating global anthropogenic CO2 emission with its unique advantages. However, there is a risk of the sealed CO2 leakage, bringing a serious threat to the ecology system. It is widely known that soil microorganisms are closely related to soil health, while the study on the impact of sequestered CO2 leakage on soil microorganisms is quite deficient. In this study, the leakage scenarios of sealed CO2 were constructed and the 16S rRNA genes of soil bacteria were sequenced by Illumina high-throughput sequencing technology on Miseq platform, and related biological analysis was conducted to explore the changes of soil bacterial abundance, diversity and structure. There were 486,645 reads for 43,017 OTUs of 15 soil samples and the results of biological analysis showed that there were differences in the abundance, diversity and community structure of soil bacterial community under different CO, leakage scenarios while the abundance and diversity of the bacterial community declined with the amplification of CO2 leakage quantity and leakage time, and some bacteria species became the dominant bacteria species in the bacteria community, therefore the increase of Acidobacteria species would be a biological indicator for the impact of sealed CO2 leakage on soil ecology system.

  8. Projections of NH3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in China to 2030 under six mitigation scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Peng; Koloutsou-Vakakis, Sotiria; Rood, Mark J; Luan, Shengji

    2017-12-31

    China's rapid urbanization, large population, and increasing consumption of calorie-and meat-intensive diets, have resulted in China becoming the world's largest source of ammonia (NH 3 ) emissions from livestock production. This is the first study to use provincial, condition-specific emission factors based on most recently available studies on Chinese manure management and environmental conditions. The estimated NH 3 emission temporal trends and spatial patterns are interpreted in relation to government policies affecting livestock production. Scenario analysis is used to project emissions and estimate mitigation potential of NH 3 emissions, to year 2030. We produce a 1km×1km gridded NH 3 emission inventory for 2008 based on county-level activity data, which can help identify locations of highest NH 3 emissions. The total NH 3 emissions from manure generated by livestock production in 2008 were 7.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (interquartile range from 6.1 to 8.6TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ), and the major sources were poultry (29.9%), pigs (28.4%), other cattle (27.9%), and dairy cattle (7.0%), while sheep and goats (3.6%), donkeys (1.3%), horses (1.2%), and mules (0.7%) had smaller contributions. From 1978 to 2008, annual NH 3 emissions fluctuated with two peaks (1996 and 2006), and total emissions increased from 2.2 to 7.3Tg·yr -1 increasing on average 4.4%·yr -1 . Under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, NH 3 emissions in 2030 are expected to be 13.9TgNH 3 ·yr -1 (11.5-16.3TgNH 3 ·yr -1 ). Under mitigation scenarios, the projected emissions could be reduced by 18.9-37.3% compared to 2030 BAU emissions. This study improves our understanding of NH 3 emissions from livestock production, which is needed to guide stakeholders and policymakers to make well informed mitigation decisions for NH 3 emissions from livestock production at the country and regional levels. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. CO2 emissions mitigation potential of solar home systems under clean development mechanism in India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Purohit, Pallav

    2009-01-01

    The Government of India has taken several initiatives for promotion of solar energy systems in the country during the last two decades. A variety of policy measures have been adopted which include provision of financial and fiscal incentives to the potential users of solar energy systems however, only 0.4 million solar home systems (SHSs) have been installed so far that is far below their respective potential. One of the major barriers is the high costs of investments in these systems. The clean development mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol provides industrialized (Annex-I) countries with an incentive to invest in emission reduction projects in developing (non-Annex-I) countries to achieve a reduction in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions at lowest cost that also promotes sustainable development in the host country. SHSs could be of interest under the CDM because they directly displace greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions while contributing to sustainable rural development, if developed correctly. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the CO 2 mitigation potential of SHSs under CDM in India.

  10. CO{sub 2} separation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hakuta, Toshikatu [National Inst. of Materials and Chemical Research, Ibaraki (Japan)

    1993-12-31

    The climate change induced by CO{sub 2} and other greenhouse gases is probably the most serious environmental threat that mankind has ever experienced. Nowadays fossil fuels occupy the majority of the world commercial energy supply. Most nations will be dependent on fossil fuels even in the first half of the next century. Around 30 % of CO{sub 2} in the world is emitted from thermal power plants. Recovering CO{sub 2} from energy conversion processes and storing it outside the atmosphere is a promising option for the mitigation of global warming. CO{sub 2} fixation and storage include CO{sub 2} disposal into oceans and underground, and utilization of CO{sub 2}. CO{sub 2} separation process will be used in any CO{sub 2} storage system, and is estimated to consume almost half the energy of the total system. Research and development of highly efficient CO{sub 2} separation process is most important from the viewpoint of practical application of CO{sub 2} fixation system.

  11. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry [and others

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  12. ADAM adaptation and mitigation strategies: supporting European climate policy. Deliverable D3 of work package M1 (code D-M1.3). ADAM 2-degree scenario for Europe - policies and impacts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schade, Wolfgang; Jochem, Eberhard; Barker, Terry (and others)

    2009-07-31

    ADAM research identifies and appraises existing and new policy options that can contribute to different combinations of adaptation and mitigation strategies. These options address the demands a changing climate will place on protecting citizens and valuable ecosystems - i.e., adaptation - as well as addressing the necessity to restrain/control humankind's perturbation to global climate to a desirable level - i.e., mitigation. The work package Mitigation 1 (Ml) has the core objective to simulate mitigation options and their related costs for Europe until 2050 and 2100 respectively. The focus of this deliverable is on the period 2005 to 2050. The long-term period until 2100 is covered in the previous deliverable D2, applying the POLES model for this time horizon. The analysis constitutes basically a techno-economic analysis. Depending on the sector analyzed it is either directly combined with a policy analysis (e.g. in the transport sector, renewables sector) or the policy analysis is performed qualitatively as a subsequent and independent step after the techno-economic analysis is completed (e.g. in the residential and service sectors). The book includes the following chapters: scenarios and macroeconomic assumptions; methodological issues analyzing mitigation options; the integrated global energy model POLES and its projections for the reference and 2 deg C scenarios; forest and basic materials sector; residential sector in Europe; the service (tertiary) and the primary sectors in Europe; basic products and other manufacturing industry sectors; transport sectors in Europe; renewable sector in Europe; conversion sector in Europe; syntheses and sectoral analysis in Europe; macroeconomic impacts of climate policy in the EU; the effects of the financial crisis on baseline simulations with implications for climate policy modeling: an analysis using the global model E3MG 2008-2012; conclusions and policy recommendations.

  13. Cover crops mitigate direct greenhouse gases balance but reduce drainage under climate change scenarios in temperate climate with dry summers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribouillois, Hélène; Constantin, Julie; Justes, Eric

    2018-02-14

    Cover crops provide ecosystem services such as storing atmospheric carbon in soils after incorporation of their residues. Cover crops also influence soil water balance, which can be an issue in temperate climates with dry summers as for example in southern France and Europe. As a consequence, it is necessary to understand cover crops' long-term influence on greenhouse gases (GHG) and water balances to assess their potential to mitigate climate change in arable cropping systems. We used the previously calibrated and validated soil-crop model STICS to simulate scenarios of cover crop introduction to assess their influence on rainfed and irrigated cropping systems and crop rotations distributed among five contrasted sites in southern France from 2007 to 2052. Our results showed that cover crops can improve mean direct GHG balance by 315 kg CO 2 e ha -1  year -1 in the long term compared to that of bare soil. This was due mainly to an increase in carbon storage in the soil despite a slight increase in N 2 O emissions which can be compensated by adapting fertilization. Cover crops also influence the water balance by reducing mean annual drainage by 20 mm/year but increasing mean annual evapotranspiration by 20 mm/year compared to those of bare soil. Using cover crops to improve the GHG balance may help to mitigate climate change by decreasing CO 2 e emitted in cropping systems which can represent a decrease from 4.5% to 9% of annual GHG emissions of the French agriculture and forestry sector. However, if not well managed, they also could create water management issues in watersheds with shallow groundwater. Relationships between cover crop biomass and its influence on several variables such as drainage, carbon sequestration, and GHG emissions could be used to extend our results to other conditions to assess the cover crops' influence in a wider range of areas. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  14. Narrative scenario development based on cross-impact analysis for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hayashi, Ayami; Tokimatsu, Koji; Yamamoto, Hiromi; Mori, Shunsuke

    2006-01-01

    Social, technological, economic and environmental issues should be considered comprehensively for the evaluation of global-warming mitigation options. Existing integrated assessment models include assessment of quantitative factors; however, these models do not explicitly consider interactions among qualitative factors in the background - for example, introductions of nuclear power stations interact with social acceptability. In this paper, we applied a technological forecasting method - the cross-impact method - which explicitly deals with the relationships among relevant factors, and we then developed narrative scenarios having consistency with qualitative social contexts. An example of developed scenarios in 2050, assuming the global population and the gross domestic product are the same as those of the A1 scenario of the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, tells us that: (1) the Internet will be extensively used in all regions; (2) the global unified market will appear; (3) regional cultures will tend to converge; (4) long-term investments (of more than 30 years) will become difficult and therefore nuclear-power stations will not increase so remarkably; (5) the self-sufficient supply and diversification of primary energy sources will not progress so rapidly; and (6) due to the widespread use of the Internet, people will be more educated in global environmental issues and environmental costs will be more socially acceptable

  15. What Can China Do? China's Best Alternative Outcome for Energy Efficiency and CO2 Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    G. Fridley, David; Zheng, Nina; T. Aden, Nathaniel

    2010-07-01

    After rapid growth in economic development and energy demand over the last three decades, China has undertaken energy efficiency improvement efforts to reduce its energy intensity under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP). Since becoming the world's largest annual CO{sub 2} emitter in 2007, China has set reduction targets for energy and carbon intensities and committed to meeting 15% of its total 2020 energy demand with non-fossil fuel. Despite having achieved important savings in 11th FYP efficiency programs, rising per capita income and the continued economic importance of trade will drive demand for transport activity and fuel use. At the same time, an increasingly 'electrified' economy will drive rapid power demand growth. Greater analysis is therefore needed to understand the underlying drivers, possible trajectories and mitigation potential in the growing industrial, transport and power sectors. This study uses scenario analysis to understand the likely trajectory of China's energy and carbon emissions to 2030 in light of the current and planned portfolio of programs, policies and technology development and ongoing urbanization and demographic trends. It evaluates the potential impacts of alternative transportation and power sector development using two key scenarios, Continued Improvement Scenario (CIS) and Accelerated Improvement Scenario (AIS). CIS represents the most likely path of growth based on continuation of current policies and meeting announced targets and goals, including meeting planned appliance efficiency standard revisions, fuel economy standards, and industrial targets and moderate phase-out of subcritical coal-fired generation with additional non-fossil generation. AIS represents a more aggressive trajectory of accelerated improvement in energy intensity and decarbonized power and transport sectors. A range of sensitivity analysis and power technology scenarios are tested to evaluate the impact of additional actions such as

  16. The Role of Health Co-Benefits in the Development of Australian Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Workman, Annabelle; Blashki, Grant; Karoly, David; Wiseman, John

    2016-01-01

    Reducing domestic carbon dioxide and other associated emissions can lead to short-term, localized health benefits. Quantifying and incorporating these health co-benefits into the development of national climate change mitigation policies may facilitate the adoption of stronger policies. There is, however, a dearth of research exploring the role of health co-benefits on the development of such policies. To address this knowledge gap, research was conducted in Australia involving the analysis of several data sources, including interviews carried out with Australian federal government employees directly involved in the development of mitigation policies. The resulting case study determined that, in Australia, health co-benefits play a minimal role in the development of climate change mitigation policies. Several factors influence the extent to which health co-benefits inform the development of mitigation policies. Understanding these factors may help to increase the political utility of future health co-benefits studies. PMID:27657098

  17. The Role of Health Co-Benefits in the Development of Australian Climate Change Mitigation Policies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Annabelle Workman

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing domestic carbon dioxide and other associated emissions can lead to short-term, localized health benefits. Quantifying and incorporating these health co-benefits into the development of national climate change mitigation policies may facilitate the adoption of stronger policies. There is, however, a dearth of research exploring the role of health co-benefits on the development of such policies. To address this knowledge gap, research was conducted in Australia involving the analysis of several data sources, including interviews carried out with Australian federal government employees directly involved in the development of mitigation policies. The resulting case study determined that, in Australia, health co-benefits play a minimal role in the development of climate change mitigation policies. Several factors influence the extent to which health co-benefits inform the development of mitigation policies. Understanding these factors may help to increase the political utility of future health co-benefits studies.

  18. Geomechanical Simulation of CO2 Leakage and Cap Rock Remediation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nygaard, Runar [Univ. of Missouri, Rolla, MO (United States); Bai, Baojun [Univ. of Missouri, Rolla, MO (United States); Eckert, Andreas [Univ. of Missouri, Rolla, MO (United States)

    2012-09-30

    CO2 sequestration into porous and permeable brine filled aquifers is seen as one of the most likely near-term solutions for reducing greenhouse gases. Safely storing injected CO2, which is less dense than water, requires trapping the CO2 under an impermeable rock which would act as a seal. One of the concerns with CO2 sequestration is the generation of new fractures or reactivation of existing fractures and faults caused by CO2 injection into the sealing formation. Mitigation strategies must be developed to remediate potentially leaking faults or fractures. This project evaluated potential storage scenarios in the state of Missouri and developed coupled reservoir and geomechanic simulations to identify storage potential and leakage risks. Further, several injectable materials used to seal discontinuities were evaluated under subsurface conditions. The four sealant materials investigated were paraffin wax, silica based gel, polymer based gel, and micro-cement, which all significantly reduced the fracture permeability. However, the micro-cement was the most effective sealing agent and the only sealant able to withstand the large differential pressure caused by CO2 or brine injection and create a strong seal to prevent further fracturing.

  19. Greenhouse Gas Implications of Peri-Urban Land Use Change in a Developed City under Four Future Climate Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alison Rothwell

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Present decisions about urbanization of peri-urban (PU areas may contribute to the capacity of cities to mitigate future climate change. Comprehensive mitigative responses to PU development should require integration of urban form and food production to realise potential trade-offs. Despite this, few studies examine greenhouse gas (GHG implications of future urban development combined with impacts on PU food production. In this paper, four future scenarios, at 2050 and 2100 time horizons, were developed to evaluate the potential GHG emissions implications of feeding and housing a growing urban population in Sydney, Australia. The scenarios were thematically downscaled from the four relative concentration pathways. Central to the scenarios were differences in population, technology, energy, housing form, transportation, temperature, food production and land use change (LUC. A life cycle assessment approach was used within the scenarios to evaluate differences in GHG impacts. Differences in GHG emissions between scenarios at the 2100 time horizon, per area of PU land transformed, approximated 0.7 Mt CO2-e per year. Per additional resident this equated to 0.7 to 6.1 t CO2-e per year. Indirect LUC has the potential to be significant. Interventions such as carbon capture and storage technology, renewables and urban form markedly reduced emissions. However, incorporating cross-sectoral energy saving measures within urban planning at the regional scale requires a paradigmatic shift.

  20. Environment and mobility 2050: scenarios for a 75% reduction in CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lopez-Ruiz, H.G.

    2009-10-01

    In France an objective of dividing greenhouse gas emissions by four, from the 1990 level, by 2050 has been set. Are these ambitions out of our reach? What will the price to pay for this objective be? We have built a long-term back-casting transport demand model (TILT, Transport Issues in the Long Term) . This model is centered on defined behavior types - in which the speed-GDP elasticity plays a key role - in order to determine demand estimations. This model lets us understand past tendencies - the coupling between growth and personal and freight mobility and adapt behavioral hypothesis - linked to the evolution of public policies - in order to show how a 75% reduction objective can be attained. The main results are an estimation of CO 2 emissions for the transport sector taking into account technical progress and demand. These results are presented as three scenario families named: Pegasus, Chronos and Hestia. Each family corresponds to a growing degree of constraint on mobility. It is possible to divide greenhouse gas emissions in the transport sector by four. Technical progress is able to lead to more than half of these reductions. The interest of these scenarios is to show that there exist different paths - through organizational change - to getting the other half of the reductions. (author)

  1. The 2 oC scenario-A sustainable world energy perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krewitt, Wolfram; Simon, Sonja; Graus, Wina; Teske, Sven; Zervos, Arthouros; Schaefer, Oliver

    2007-01-01

    A target-oriented scenario of future energy demand and supply is developed in a backcasting process. The main target is to reduce global CO 2 emissions to around 10 Gt/a in 2050, thus limiting global average temperature increase to 2 o C and preventing dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. A 10-region energy system model is used for simulating global energy supply strategies. A review of sector and region-specific energy efficiency measures resulted in the specification of a global energy demand scenario incorporating strong energy efficiency measures. The corresponding supply scenario has been developed in an iterative process in close cooperation with stakeholders and regional counterparts from academia, NGOs and the renewable energy industry. The 2 o C scenario shows that renewable energy could provide as much as half of the world's energy needs by 2050. Developing countries can virtually stabilise their CO 2 emissions, while at the same time increasing energy consumption through economic growth. OECD countries will be able to reduce their emissions by up to 80%

  2. Environmental potential of the use of CO{sub 2} from alcoholic fermentation processes. The CO{sub 2}-AFP strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alonso-Moreno, Carlos, E-mail: carlos.amoreno@uclm.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica, Orgánica y Bioquímica, Facultad de Farmacia, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Paseo de los Estudiantes, 02071 Albacete (Spain); García-Yuste, Santiago, E-mail: santiago.gyuste@uclm.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica, Orgánica y Bioquímica, Facultad de Ciencias y Tecnologías Químicas, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha, Campus Universitario, 13071 Ciudad Real (Spain)

    2016-10-15

    A novel Carbon Dioxide Utilization (CDU) approach from a relatively minor CO{sub 2} emission source, i.e., alcoholic fermentation processes (AFP), is presented. The CO{sub 2} produced as a by-product from the AFP is estimated by examining the EtOH consumed per year reported by the World Health Organization in 2014. It is proposed that the extremely pure CO{sub 2} from the AFP is captured in NaOH solutions to produce one of the Top 10 commodities in the chemical industry, Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3}, as a good example of an atomic economy process. The novel CDU strategy could yield over 30.6 Mt of Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3} in oversaturated aqueous solution on using ca. 12.7 Mt of captured CO{sub 2} and this process would consume less energy than the synthetic methodology (Solvay ammonia soda process) and would not produce low-value by-products. The quantity of Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3} obtained by this strategy could represent ca. 50% of the world Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3} production in one year. In terms of the green economy, the viability of the strategy is discussed according to the recommendations of the CO{sub 2}Chem network, and an estimation of the CO{sub 2}negative emission achieved suggests a capture of around 280.0 Mt of CO{sub 2} from now to 2020 or ca. 1.9 Gt from now to 2050. Finally, the results obtained for this new CDU proposal are discussed by considering different scenarios; the CO{sub 2} production in a typical winemaking corporation, the CO{sub 2} released in the most relevant wine-producing countries, and the use of CO{sub 2} from AFP as an alternative for the top Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3}-producing countries. - Highlights: • A new CDU strategy to mitigate the CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is assessed. • An environmental action towards negligible emission sources such as AFP. • The waste CO{sub 2} from AFP could be converted into Na{sub 2}CO{sub 3}. • Capture 12.7 Mt yr{sup –1} of CO{sub 2} to generate ca. 1.9 Gt of CO{sub 2}negative emissions by 2050.

  3. Climate Strategy with CO2 Capture from the Air

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith, D.W. [Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, AB (Canada); Ha-Duong, M. [CNRS-CIRED, Campus du Jardin Tropical, 45 bis, av. de la Belle Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent sur Marne CEDEX (France); Stolaroff, J.K. [Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States)

    2006-01-15

    It is physically possible to capture CO2 directly from the air and immobilize it in geological structures. Air capture differs from conventional mitigation in three key aspects. First, it removes emissions from any part of the economy with equal ease or difficulty, so its cost provides an absolute cap on the cost of mitigation. Second, it permits reduction in concentrations faster than the natural carbon cycle: the effects of irreversibility are thus partly alleviated. Third, because it is weakly coupled to existing energy infrastructure, air capture may offer stronger economies of scale and smaller adjustment costs than the more conventional mitigation technologies. We assess the ultimate physical limits on the amount of energy and land required for air capture and describe two systems that might achieve air capture at prices under 200 and 500 $/tC using current technology. Like geoengineering, air capture limits the cost of a worst-case climate scenario. In an optimal sequential decision framework with uncertainty, existence of air capture decreases the need for near-term precautionary abatement. The long-term effect is the opposite; assuming that marginal costs of mitigation decrease with time while marginal climate change damages increase, then air capture increases long-run abatement. Air capture produces an environmental Kuznets curve, in which concentrations are returned to preindustrial levels.

  4. Greenhouse gas emissions for the EU in four future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lesschen, J.P.; Rienks, W.; Staritsky, I. [Alterra, Wageningen-UR, Wageningen (Netherlands); Eickhout, B.; Prins, A.G. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2009-12-15

    The European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) will be revised in the near future. A proposed agricultural policy reform will affect many dimensions of the sustainable development of agriculture. One of these dimensions are greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of four scenarios of the future, from the Eururalis study, and the effects of CAP options on GHG emissions from agriculture. The results provide an indication of the range of GHG emissions between the four diverging base scenarios and the differences with current emission levels in Member States and on EU level. Analysis of the possible impact of the measures on GHG emissions showed that this would be much larger from mitigation measures than from CAP options. Full implementation of the mitigation measures could lead to a reduction in GHG emissions from agriculture of 127 Mt CO2 equivalents. This is about a quarter of current GHG emissions from agriculture. Promoting mitigation measures, therefore, is more effective for reducing GHG emissions from agriculture, than influencing income and price subsidies within the CAP. On the global scale, CAP options hardly play a role in total GHG emissions from land use. Much more important are developments in global population, economic growth, policies and technological developments, as depicted in the various scenarios.

  5. Status of national CO{sub 2}-mitigation projects and initiatives in the Philippine energy sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tupas, C.T.

    1996-12-31

    The Philippines has a huge energy requirement for the next 30 years in order to achieve its economic growth target. Based on an expected annual GDP growth rate of 6.9 percent, the Philippines total energy requirement is estimated to increase at an average of 6.6 percent annually from 1996 to 2025. Gross energy demand shall increase from 219.0 million barrels of fuel oil equivalent (MMBFOE) in 1996 to 552.4 MMBFOE in 2010 and 1,392.6 MMBFOE by 2025. These energy demand levels shall be driven primarily by the substantial increase in fuel requirements for power generation whose share of total energy requirement is 28.3 percent in 1996, 48.0 percent in 2010 and 55.0 percent in 2025. With the expected increase in energy demand, there will necessarily be adverse impacts on the environment. Energy projects and their supporting systems - from fuel extraction and storage to distribution - can and will be major contributors not only to local but also to regional and global environmental pollution and degradation. International experiences and trends in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions inventory have shown that the energy sector has always been the dominant source of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) - the principal contributor to global climate change. The energy sector`s CO{sub 2} emissions come primarily from fossil fuels combustion. Since energy use is the dominant source of CO{sub 2} emissions, efforts should therefore be concentrated on designing a mitigation strategy in this sector.

  6. A scenario of human thermal comfort in Mexico City for 2CO{sub 2} conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jauregui, Ernesto [Centro de Ciencias de la Atmosfera de la UNAM, Mexico, D.F. (Mexico); Tejeda, Adalberto [Universidad Veracruzana, Xalapa, Veracruz (Mexico)

    2001-07-01

    Applying the concept of effective temperature (ET), a scenario of human bioclimatic conditions for Mexico City is presented by using results from both GCM regional predictions for CO{sub 2} doubling and temperature trend projections from an urban station. Current and future bioclimatic maps for Mexico City and their conurbation are presented. Current environmental conditions will likely change toward a warmer atmosphere due to both the urbanization process and global greenhouse effect. The impact on the population will be more important during the warm season (March- May) when the bioclimate of the city will likely shift away from current neutrality to the next comfort scale category (ET 24-27 Celsius degrees) of warm conditions covering most of the capital city. [Spanish] A partir de la aplicacion del concepto de temperatura efectiva (ET) se presenta un escenario de las condiciones de bioclima humano para la Ciudad de Mexico y zona conurbada para la segunda mitad del proximo siglo. Se usaron resultados de predicciones regionales de modelos de circulacion general (GCM) para una duplicacion del CO{sub 2} y tambien las tendencias de temperatura de una estacion urbana. Se muestran mapas de las condiciones actuales y futuras de confort termico. La combinacion del efecto invernadero y la urbanizacion, muy probablemente impacten en la poblacion principalmente en la estacion calida (marzo a mayo), cuando se pase de la categoria de confort actual a la inmediata superior (ET 24-27 Celsius degrees) en la mayor parte de la capital del pais.

  7. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  8. Assessment of GHG mitigation and CDM technology in urban transport sector of Chandigarh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhargava, Nitin; Gurjar, Bhola Ram; Mor, Suman; Ravindra, Khaiwal

    2018-01-01

    The increase in number of vehicles in metropolitan cities has resulted in increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in urban environment. In this study, emission load of GHGs (CO, N 2 O, CO 2 ) from Chandigarh road transport sector has been estimated using Vehicular Air Pollution Inventory (VAPI) model, which uses emission factors prevalent in Indian cities. Contribution of 2-wheelers (2-w), 3-wheelers (3-w), cars, buses, and heavy commercial vehicles (HCVs) to CO, N 2 O, CO 2 , and total GHG emissions was calculated. Potential for GHG mitigation through clean development mechanism (CDM) in transport sector of Chandigarh under two scenarios, i.e., business as usual (BAU) and best estimate scenario (BES) using VAPI model, has been explored. A major contribution of GHG load (~ 50%) in Chandigarh was from four-wheelers until 2011; however, it shows a declining trend after 2011 until 2020. The estimated GHG emission from motor vehicles in Chandigarh has increased more than two times from 1065 Gg in 2005 to 2486 Gg by 2011 and is expected to increase to 4014 Gg by 2020 under BAU scenario. Under BES scenario, 30% of private transport has been transformed to public transport; GHG load was possibly reduced by 520 Gg. An increase of 173 Gg in GHGs load is projected from additional scenario (ADS) in Chandigarh city if all the diesel buses are transformed to CNG buses by 2020. Current study also offers potential for other cities to plan better GHG reduction strategies in transport sector to reduce their climate change impacts.

  9. An ensemble approach to simulate CO2 emissions from natural fires

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eliseev, A. V.; Mokhov, I. I.; Chernokulsky, A. V.

    2014-06-01

    1998-2011 to 2091-2100, the ensemble mean global burnt area is increased by 13% (28%, 36%, 51%) under scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5). The corresponding global emissions increase is 14% (29%, 37%, 42%). From 2091-2100 to 2291-2300, under the mitigation scenario RCP 2.6 the ensemble mean global burnt area and the respective CO2 emissions slightly decrease, both by 5% relative to their values in the period 2091-2100. In turn, under scenario RCP 4.5 (RCP 6.0, RCP 8.5) the ensemble mean burnt area in the period 2291-2100 is higher by 15% (44%, 83%) than its mean value, and the ensemble mean CO2 emissions are correspondingly higher by 9% (19%, 31%). The simulated changes of natural fire characteristics in the 21st-23rd centuries are associated mostly with the corresponding changes in boreal regions of Eurasia and North America. However, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the increase of the burnt area and CO2 emissions in boreal regions during the 22nd and 23rd centuries is accompanied by the respective decreases in the tropics and subtropics.

  10. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Lei; Lee, Xuhui; Schultz, Natalie M.

    2017-07-01

    Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs). Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases - cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of -3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071-2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG) warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  11. An interdisciplinary, outcome-based approach to astmospheric CO2 mitigation with planted southern pine forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, T.; Fox, T.; Peter, G.; Monroe, M.

    2012-12-01

    The Pine Integrated Network: Education, Mitigation and Adaptation Project ("PINEMAP") was funded by National Institute of Food and Agriculture to produce outcomes of enhanced climate change mitigation and adaptation in planted southern pine ecosystems. The PINEMAP project leverages a strong group of existing networks to produce synergy and cooperation on applied forestry research in the region. Over the last 50 years, cooperative research on planted southern pine management among southeastern U.S. universities, government agencies, and corporate forest landowners has developed and facilitated the widespread implementation of improved genetic and silvicultural technology. The impact of these regional research cooperatives is difficult to overstate, with current members managing 55% of the privately owned planted pine forestland, and producing 95% of the pine seedlings planted each year. The PINEMAP team includes the eight major forestry cooperative research programs, scientists from eleven land grant institutions, the US Forest Service, and climate modeling and adaptation specialists associated with the multi-state SE Climate Consortium and state climate offices. Our goal is to create and disseminate the knowledge that enables landowners to: harness planted pine forest productivity to mitigate atmospheric CO2; more efficiently use nitrogen and other fertilizer inputs; and adapt their forest management to increase resilience in the face of changing climate. We integrate our team's infrastructure and expertise to: 1) develop breeding, genetic deployment and innovative management systems to increase C sequestration and resilience to changing climate of planted southern pine forests ; 2) understand interactive effects of policy, biology, and climate change on sustainable management; 3) transfer new management and genetic technologies to private industrial and non-industrial landowners; and 4) educate a diverse cross-section of the public about the relevance of forests

  12. Transport Pathways for Light Duty Vehicles: Towards a 2° Scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Cuenot

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The transport sector is the second largest and one of the fastest growing energy end-use sectors, representing 24% of global energy-related greenhouse gas emissions. The International Energy Agency has developed scenarios for the transport sector within the overall concept of mitigation pathways that would be required to limit global warming to 2 °C. This paper builds on these scenarios and illustrates various passenger travel-related strategies for achieving a 2° transport scenario, in particular looking at how much technology improvement is needed in the light of different changes in travel and modal shares in OECD and non-OECD countries. It finds that an integrated approach using all feasible policy options is likely to deliver the required emission reductions at least cost, and that stronger travel-related measures result in significantly lower technological requirements.

  13. Reduced tillage and cover crops as a strategy for mitigating atmospheric CO2 increase through soil organic carbon sequestration in dry Mediterranean agroecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almagro, María; Garcia-Franco, Noelia; de Vente, Joris; Boix-Fayos, Carolina; Díaz-Pereira, Elvira; Martínez-Mena, María

    2016-04-01

    The implementation of sustainable land management (SLM) practices in semiarid Mediterranean agroecosystems can be beneficial to maintain or enhance levels of soil organic carbon and mitigate current atmospheric CO2 increase. In this study, we assess the effects of different tillage treatments (conventional tillage (CT), reduced tillage (RT), reduced tillage combined with green manure (RTG), and no tillage (NT)) on soil CO2 efflux, aggregation and organic carbon stabilization in two semiarid organic rainfed almond (Prunus dulcis Mill., var. Ferragnes) orchards located in SE Spain Soil CO2 efflux, temperature and moisture were measured monthly between May 2012 and December 2014 (site 1), and between February 2013 and December 2014 (site 2). In site 1, soil CO2 efflux rates were also measured immediately following winter and spring tillage operations. Aboveground biomass inputs were estimated at the end of the growing season in each tillage treatment. Soil samples (0-15 cm) were collected in the rows between the trees (n=4) in October 2012. Four aggregate size classes were distinguished by sieving (large and small macroaggregates, free microaggregates, and free silt plus clay fraction), and the microaggregates occluded within macroaggregates (SMm) were isolated. Soil CO2efflux rates in all tillage treatments varied significantly during the year, following changes during the autumn, winter and early spring, or changes in soil moisture during late spring and summer. Repeated measures analyses of variance revealed that there were no significant differences in soil CO2 efflux between tillage treatments throughout the study period at both sites. Average annual values of C lost by soil respiration were slightly but not significantly higher under RT and RTG treatments (492 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1) than under NT treatment (405 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1) in site 1, while slightly but not significantly lower values were observed under RT and RTG treatments (468 and 439 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1

  14. Functional response of a near-surface soil microbial community to a simulated underground CO2 storage leak.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morales, Sergio E; Holben, William E

    2013-01-01

    Understanding the impacts of leaks from geologic carbon sequestration, also known as carbon capture and storage, is key to developing effective strategies for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions management and mitigation of potential negative effects. Here, we provide the first report on the potential effects of leaks from carbon capture and storage sites on microbial functional groups in surface and near-surface soils. Using a simulated subsurface CO2 storage leak scenario, we demonstrate how CO2 flow upward through the soil column altered both the abundance (DNA) and activity (mRNA) of microbial functional groups mediating carbon and nitrogen transformations. These microbial responses were found to be seasonally dependent and correlated to shifts in atmospheric conditions. While both DNA and mRNA levels were affected by elevated CO2, they did not react equally, suggesting two separate mechanisms for soil microbial community response to high CO2 levels. The results did not always agree with previous studies on elevated atmospheric (rather than subsurface) CO2 using FACE (Free-Air CO2 Enrichment) systems, suggesting that microbial community response to CO2 seepage from the subsurface might differ from its response to atmospheric CO2 increases.

  15. Developing high-risk scenarios and countermeasure ideas for mitigation of hazardous materials incidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Russell, E.R. Sr.

    1991-01-01

    Kansas State University (KSU) conducted a comprehensive study of the development of a set of prioritized, extreme-risk scenarios, the development of a set of feasible, practical and implementable protective systems, and a report to summarize guidelines on the use of these protective systems to mitigate potential, extreme-risk situations that could occur during the transport of hazardous materials (Hazmat) on our highway system. This paper covers the methodology used to compete the first tow objectives with use of a state's panel. The research study was limited to materials (such as LNG, propane, gasoline, etc.) spilled within the highway system. It focused on potential risks which would result in severe, long-term, permanent, irreparable or catastrophic consequences, and existing technology and state-of-the-art knowledge for development of protective systems to mitigate these consequences. The protective systems within the scope of this study were systems constructed or physically incorporated into the highway system or modifications thereto

  16. Analysis of carbon mitigation technology to 2050 in Japan through integrated energy economic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Komiyama, Ryoichi; Suzuki, Kengo; Nagatomi, Yu; Matsuo, Yuji; Suehiro, Shigeru

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes the outline of integrated energy economic model and calculated result concerning the outlook of energy and carbon dioxide emissions in Japan to 2050. The energy model developed in this paper is integrated one which consistently combines econometric model endogenously generating socio-economic outlook and bottom-up type technology model, MARKAL, identifying cost-minimizing optimal mix of various energy technologies. In reference scenario which imposes no carbon emissions constraint, CO 2 emission in 2050 will decrease by approximately 40% from the level of emissions in 2005. In carbon-constraints scenario, imposing emissions cap of 60% reduction by 2050 from the emissions in 2005, natural gas-fired power plant equipped with CCS and renewable energy are expected to expand its portion in power generation mix. In transportation sector on this scenario, clean energy vehicles such as electric vehicle (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell vehicle (FCV) will be deployed and contribute to mitigate CO 2 emissions. (author)

  17. Use of MgO to mitigate the effect of microbial CO2 production in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Y.; Brush, L.H.

    1997-01-01

    The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP), located in a salt bed in southern New Mexico, is designed by US Department of Energy to demonstrate the safe and permanent disposal of design-basis transuranic waste. WIPP performance assessment requires consideration of radionuclide release in brines in the event of inadvertent human intrusion. The mobility of radionuclides depends on chemical factors such as brine pmH (-log molality of H + ) and CO 2 fugacity. According to current waste inventory estimates, a large quantity (∼ 10 9 moles C) of organic materials will be emplaced in the WIPP. Those organic material will potentially be degraded by halophilic or halotolerant microorganisms in the presence of liquid water in the repository, especially if a large volume of brine is introduced into the repository by human intrusions. Organic material biodegradation will produce a large amount of CO 2 , which will acidify the WIPP brine and thus significantly increase the mobility of actinides. This communication addresses (1) the rate of organic material biodegradation and the quantity of CO 2 to be possibly generated, (2) the effect of microbial CO 2 production on overall WIPP performance, and (3) the mechanism of using MgO to mitigate this effect

  18. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Winkler, Harald; Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew; Haw, Mary; Merven, Bruno

    2011-01-01

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: → Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. → Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. → In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. → Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. → Compares projections from other national and international models.

  19. Assessment of Clmate Change Mitigation Strategies for the Road Transport Sector of India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, N.; Mishra, T.; Banerjee, R.

    2017-12-01

    India is one of the fastest growing major economies of the world. It imports three quarters of its oil demand, making transport sector major contributor of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. 40% of oil consumption in India comes from transport sector and over 90% of energy demand is from road transport sector. This has led to serious increase in CO2 emission and concentration of air pollutants in India. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), transport can play a crucial role for mitigation of global greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, assessment of appropriate mitigation policies is required for emission reduction and cost benefit potential. The present study aims to estimate CO2, SO2, PM and NOx emissions from the road transport sector for the base year (2014) and target year (2030) by applying bottom up emission inventory model. Effectiveness of different mitigation strategies like inclusion of natural gas as alternate fuel, penetration of electric vehicle as alternate vehicle, improvement of fuel efficiency and increase share of public transport is evaluated for the target year. Emission reduction achieved from each mitigation strategies in the target year (2030) is compared with the business as usual scenario for the same year. To obtain cost benefit analysis, marginal abatement cost for each mitigation strategy is estimated. The study evaluates mitigation strategies not only on the basis of emission reduction potential but also on their cost saving potential.

  20. Differences, or lack thereof, in wheat and maize yields under three low-warming scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tebaldi, Claudia; Lobell, David

    2018-06-01

    The availability of climate model experiments under three alternative scenarios stabilizing at warming targets inspired by the COP21 agreements (a 1.5 °C not exceed, a 1.5 °C with overshoot and a 2.0 °C) makes it possible to assess future expected changes in global yields for two staple crops, wheat and maize. In this study an empirical model of the relation between crop yield anomalies and temperature and precipitation changes, with or without the inclusion of CO2 fertilization effects, is used to produce ensembles of time series of yield outcomes on a yearly basis over the course of the 21st century, for each scenario. The 21st century is divided into 10 year windows starting from 2020, within which the statistical significance and the magnitude of the differences in yield changes between pairs of scenarios are assessed, thus evaluating if and when benefits of mitigations appear, and how substantial they are. Additionally, a metric of extreme heat tailored to the individual crops (number of days during the growing season above a crop-specific threshold) is used to measure exposure to harmful temperatures under the different scenarios. If CO2 effects are not included, statistically significant differences in yields of both crops appear as early as the 2030s but the magnitude of the differences remains below 3% of the historical baseline in all cases until the second part of the century. In the later decades of the 21st century, differences remain small and eventually stop being statistically significant between the two scenarios stabilizing at 1.5 °C, while differences between these two lower scenarios and the 2.0 °C scenario grow to about 4%. The inclusion of CO2 effects erases all significant benefits of mitigation for wheat, while the significance of differences is maintained for maize yields between the higher and the two lower scenarios, albeit with smaller benefits in magnitude. Changes in extremes are significant within each of the scenarios

  1. Power DRAC for rapid LMFBR deployment and consequent CO2 mitigation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schenewerk, W.E.

    2006-01-01

    A metallic-sodium LMFBR (Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor) can control fuel temperature after a full power SCRAM using natural convection. A 3 percent nominal DRAC (Direct Reactor Auxiliary Cooling) does this without moving parts. DRAC is promoted from tertiary to primary decay heat removal, resulting in what is referred to as a Power DRAC. Power DRAC operates continuously before and after SCRAM, rejecting 3 per cent pile power. Power DRAC operability is validated by having it reject 75 MWt from a 2500 MWt pile at all times. IHX (Intermediate Heat Exchanger) is not required to be operable for primary, secondary, or tertiary core over temperature protection. Original DRAC concept (venturi DRAC) was a 1 per cent nominal tertiary decay heat removal system. Tertiary DRAC patent has expired. Power DRAC rejects 75 MWt through its own secondary sodium heat transfer loop to power a 25 MWe air Brayton cycle. Power DRAC eliminates requiring steam plant operability for decay heat removal. Intermediate sodium heat transfer system and steam plant can be optimized for maximum thermal efficiency. 2.5 GWt pile makes 1.0 GWe net power. Power DRAC maintains pile inlet and outlet temperatures while going from power to post-SCRAM conditions. Steam pressure is maintained post-SCRAM to mitigate SCRAM thermal transient. Not requiring steam plant operability for decay heat removal eases licensing and allows early LMFBR deployment. Each GWe atomic power delays Co2 doubling one week. (author)

  2. Nuclear Power Generation and CO2 Abatement Scenarios in Taiwan

    OpenAIRE

    Chang-Bin Huang; Fu-Kuang Ko

    2009-01-01

    Taiwan was the first country in Asia to announce "Nuclear-Free Homeland" in 2002. In 2008, the new government released the Sustainable Energy Policy Guidelines to lower the nationwide CO2 emissions some time between 2016 and 2020 back to the level of year 2008, further abatement of CO2 emissions is planed in year 2025 when CO2 emissions will decrease to the level of year 2000. Besides, under consideration of the issues of energy, environment and economics (3E), the new go...

  3. Numerical Analysis of S-CO{sub 2} Test Loop Transient Conditions near the Critical Point of CO{sub 2}

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bae, Seong Jun; Oh, Bongseong; Ahn, Yoonhan; Baik, Seongjoon; Lee, Jekyoung; Lee, Jeong Ik [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-05-15

    It was identified that controlling CO{sub 2} compressor operation near the critical point is one of the most important issues to operate a S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle with a high efficiency. Despite the growing interest in the S-CO{sub 2} Brayton cycle, a few previous research on the transient analysis of the S-CO{sub 2} system has been conducted previously. Moreover, previous studies have some limitation in the modelled test facility, and the experiment was not performed to observe specific scenario. The KAIST research team has conducted S-CO{sub 2} system transient experiments with the CO{sub 2} compressing test facility called SCO{sub 2}PE (Supercritical CO{sub 2} Pressurizing Experiment) at KAIST In this study, authors use the transient analysis code GAMMA (Gas Multidimensional Multicomponent mixture Analysis) code for analyzing the experiment. Two transient scenarios were selected in this study; over cooling and under cooling situations. The selected transient situation is of particular interest since the compressor inlet conditions start to drift away from the critical point of CO{sub 2}. The results represent that the GAMMA code can simulate the S-CO{sub 2} test facility, SCO{sub 2}PE. However, as shown in the cooling water flow rate increasing scenario, the GAMMA code shows calculation error when the phase change occurs. Furthermore, although the results of the cooling water flow rate decrease case shows reasonable agreement with the experimental data, there are still some unexplained differences between the experimental data and the GAMMA code prediction.

  4. Electricity consumption and CO2 capture potential in Spain

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Romeo, Luis M.; Calvo, Elena; Valero, Antonio; De Vita, Alessia

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, different electricity demand scenarios for Spain are presented. Population, income per capita, energy intensity and the contribution of electricity to the total energy demand have been taken into account in the calculations. Technological role of different generation technologies, i.e. coal, nuclear, renewable, combined cycle (CC), combined heat and power (CHP) and carbon capture and storage (CCS), are examined in the form of scenarios up to 2050. Nine future scenarios corresponding to three electrical demands and three options for new capacity: minimum cost of electricity, minimum CO 2 emissions and a criterion with a compromise between CO 2 and cost (CO 2 -cost criterion) have been proposed. Calculations show reduction in CO 2 emissions from 2020 to 2030, reaching a maximum CO 2 emission reduction of 90% in 2050 in an efficiency scenario with CCS and renewables. The contribution of CCS from 2030 is important with percentage values of electricity production around 22-28% in 2050. The cost of electricity (COE) increases up to 25% in 2030, and then this value remains approximately constant or decreases slightly.

  5. Analysis of CO2 emissions reduction in the Malaysian transportation sector: An optimisation approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mustapa, Siti Indati; Bekhet, Hussain Ali

    2016-01-01

    The demand for transport services is expected to rise, causing the CO 2 emissions level to increase as well. In Malaysia, the transportation sector accounts for 28% of total CO 2 emissions, of which 85% comes from road transport. By 2020, Malaysia is targeting a reduction in CO 2 emissions intensity by up to 40% and in this effort the role of road transport is paramount. This paper attempts to investigate effective policy options that can assist Malaysia in reducing the CO 2 emissions level. An Optimisation model is developed to estimate the potential CO 2 emissions mitigation strategies for road transport by minimising the CO 2 emissions under the constraint of fuel cost and demand travel. Several mitigation strategies have been applied to analyse the effect of CO 2 emissions reduction potential. The results demonstrate that removal of fuel price subsidies can result in reductions of up to 652 ktonnes of fuel consumption and CO 2 emissions can be decreased by 6.55%, which would enable Malaysia to hit its target by 2020. CO 2 emissions can be reduced significantly, up to 20%, by employing a combination of mitigation policies in Malaysia. This suggests that appropriate mitigation policies can assist the country in its quest to achieve the CO 2 emissions reduction target. - Highlights: • An optimisation model for CO 2 emissions reduction in Malaysia's road transport is formulated. • Sensible policy options to achieve the CO 2 emissions reduction target are provided. • Increase in fuel price has induced shift towards fuel efficient vehicles. • The CO 2 emissions can be reduced up to 5.7 MtCO 2 with combination of mitigation policies.

  6. Experimental hydrate formation and gas production scenarios based on CO{sub 2} sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stevens, J.C.; Howard, J.J. [ConocoPhillips, Bartlesville, OK (United States). Reservoir Laboratories; Baldwin, B.A. [Green Country Petrophysics LLC, Dewey, OK (United States); Ersland, G.; Husebo, J.; Graue, A. [Bergen Univ., Bergen (Norway). Dept. of Physics and Technology

    2008-07-01

    Gas hydrate production strategies have focused on depressurization or thermal stimulation of the reservoir, which in turn leads to hydrate dissociation. In order to evaluate potential production scenarios, the recovery efficiency of the natural gas from hydrate must be known along with the corresponding amounts of produced water. This study focused on the exchange of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) with the natural gas hydrate and the subsequent release of free methane (CH{sub 4}). Laboratory experiments that investigated the rates and mechanisms of hydrate formation in coarse-grained porous media have shown the significance of initial water saturation and salinity on forming methane hydrates. Many of the experiments were performed in a sample holder fitted with an MRI instrument for monitoring hydrate formation. Hydrate-saturated samples were subjected to different procedures to release methane. The rates and efficiency of the exchange process were reproducible over a series of initial conditions. The exchange process was rapid and efficient in that no free water was observed in the core with MRI measurements. Injection of CO{sub 2} into the whole-core hydrate-saturated pore system resulted in methane production at the outlet end. Permeability measurements on these hydrate saturated cores during hydrate formation decreased to low values, but enough for gas transport. The lower permeability values remained constant during the methane-carbon dioxide exchange process in the hydrate structure. 12 refs., 9 figs.

  7. Assessments of long-term effects of CO2 and 14C: Various energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matthies, M.; Paretzke, H.G.

    1982-01-01

    A non-linear model for the global carbon cycle has been developed and applied for prognostic assessment of concentrations of CO 2 from the combustion of fossil fuel and of radiocarbon released from facilities of the nuclear fuel cycle. The model is built up from two boxes for the atmosphere (stratosphere, troposphere), three boxes for the ocean (mixed surface layer, deep sea and sediments), and two boxes for the biosphere (short-and long-lived biota) with non-linear troposphere-biota and troposphere-ocean surface layer exchange rates and linear fluxes between the other reservoirs. Two different models are used for the man-made reduction of the biomass: (a) no deforestation function, and (b) slightly growing deforestation function. The three scenarios considered are: (I) annual energy growth rates of 2% and 4%, no nuclear power; (II) an upper, lower and medium estimate of replacement of fossil fuels by nuclear power. In addition, two assumptions concerning the decontamination of 14 C in the nuclear power plant effluents were made: one in which 14 C is released completely, and one with a decontamination factor of 4. Assuming logistic source functions for the increase of fossil-fuel combustion and an exponential growth of nuclear power until the year 2020, by around 2100 the CO 2 concentration of the troposphere will reach concentrations twice to five times as high as the pre-industrial level. Various environmental effects of this increasing CO 2 level are briefly discussed. The specific 14 C activity of the atmosphere is decreased. Up to the year 2200, the specific activity will be lower than the pre-industrial level. The individual lifetime dose commitments (70 years) are found between 0.85 and 0.45 mSv (pre-industrial value: 0.73 mSv)

  8. Short-term effects of CO2 leakage on the soil bacterial community in a simulated gas leakage scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Ma

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The technology of carbon dioxide (CO2 capture and storage (CCS has provided a new option for mitigating global anthropogenic emissions with unique advantages. However, the potential risk of gas leakage from CO2 sequestration and utilization processes has attracted considerable attention. Moreover, leakage might threaten soil ecosystems and thus cannot be ignored. In this study, a simulation experiment of leakage from CO2 geological storage was designed to investigate the short-term effects of different CO2 leakage concentration (from 400 g m−2 day−1 to 2,000 g m−2 day−1 on soil bacterial communities. A shunt device and adjustable flow meter were used to control the amount of CO2 injected into the soil. Comparisons were made between soil physicochemical properties, soil enzyme activities, and microbial community diversity before and after injecting different CO2 concentrations. Increasing CO2 concentration decreased the soil pH, and the largest variation ranged from 8.15 to 7.29 (p < 0.05. Nitrate nitrogen content varied from 1.01 to 4.03 mg/Kg, while Olsen-phosphorus and total phosphorus demonstrated less regular downtrends. The fluorescein diacetate (FDA hydrolytic enzyme activity was inhibited by the increasing CO2 flux, with the average content varying from 22.69 to 11.25 mg/(Kg h (p < 0.05. However, the increasing activity amplitude of the polyphenol oxidase enzyme approached 230%, while the urease activity presented a similar rising trend. Alpha diversity results showed that the Shannon index decreased from 7.66 ± 0.13 to 5.23 ± 0.35 as the soil CO2 concentration increased. The dominant phylum in the soil samples was Proteobacteria, whose proportion rose rapidly from 28.85% to 67.93%. In addition, the proportion of Acidobacteria decreased from 19.64% to 9.29% (p < 0.01. Moreover, the abundances of genera Methylophilus, Methylobacillus, and Methylovorus increased, while GP4, GP6 and GP7 decreased. Canonical correlation analysis

  9. Electrolysis byproduct D2O provides a third way to mitigate CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schenewerk, William Ernest

    2009-01-01

    Rapid atomic power deployment may be possible without using fast breeder reactors or making undue demands on uranium resource. Using by-product D2O and thorium-U233 in CANDU and RBMK piles may circumvent need for either fast breeder reactors or seawater uranium. Atmospheric CO2 is presently increasing 2.25%/year in proportion to 2.25%/year exponential fossil fuel consumption increase. Roughly 1/3 anthropologic CO2 is removed by various CO2 sinks. CO2 removal is modelled as being proportional to 45-year-earlier CO2 amount above 280 ppm-C Water electrolysis produces roughly 0.1 kg-D20/kWe-y. Material balance assumes each electrolysis stage increases D2O bottoms concentration times 3. Except for first two electrolysis stages, all water from hydrogen consumption is returned to electrolysis. The unique characteristic of this process is the ability to economically burn all deuterium-enriched H2 in vehicles. Condensate from vehicles returns to appropriate electrolysis stage. Fuel cell condensate originally from reformed natural gas may augment second-sage feed. Atomic power expansion is 5%/year, giving 55000 GWe by 2100. World primary energy increases 2.25%/y, exceeding 4000 EJ/y by 2100. CO2 maximum is roughly 600 ppm-C around year 2085. CO2 declines back below 300 ppm-C by 2145 if the 45-year-delay seawater sink remains effective

  10. A wedge strategy for mitigation of urban warming in future climate scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Zhao

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Heat stress is one of the most severe climate threats to human society in a future warmer world. The situation is further exacerbated in urban areas by urban heat islands (UHIs. Because the majority of world's population is projected to live in cities, there is a pressing need to find effective solutions for the heat stress problem. We use a climate model to investigate the effectiveness of various urban heat mitigation strategies: cool roofs, street vegetation, green roofs, and reflective pavement. Our results show that by adopting highly reflective roofs, almost all the cities in the United States and southern Canada are transformed into white oases – cold islands caused by cool roofs at midday, with an average oasis effect of −3.4 K in the summer for the period 2071–2100, which offsets approximately 80 % of the greenhouse gas (GHG warming projected for the same period under the RCP4.5 scenario. A UHI mitigation wedge consisting of cool roofs, street vegetation, and reflective pavement has the potential to eliminate the daytime UHI plus the GHG warming.

  11. Dividing by four CO2 releases due to energy: the Negatep scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2011-01-01

    The Negatep scenario aims at dividing CO 2 releases by 4, which means, more or less, dividing the consumption of fossil energies by the same factor, in order to comply with the French 2005 energy act. After a description of the situation in 2006, of trends, and a recall of the objectives defined by the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement' regarding energy savings and renewable energies, the authors show that reaching such a reduction requires to: decrease to nearly zero oil and gas in the residential and tertiary sectors, reduce significantly the use of oil in the transport sector, reduce significantly the use of fossil fuels in industry, increase massively the share of electricity in the energy mix, maintain the share of nuclear in the electricity generation and, as long as the storage of electricity is not developed, limit the share of intermittent energies to a level compatible with that of gas turbines. The study shows that the proposed measures can fulfill the objectives for 2020 proposed by the 'Grenelle de l'Environnement'

  12. Consumer cost effectiveness of CO2 mitigation policies in restructured electricity markets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, Jared; Apt, Jay

    2014-01-01

    We examine the cost of carbon dioxide mitigation to consumers in restructured USA markets under two policy instruments, a carbon price and a renewable portfolio standard (RPS). To estimate the effect of policies on market clearing prices, we constructed hourly economic dispatch models of the generators in PJM and in ERCOT. We find that the cost effectiveness of policies for consumers is strongly dependent on the price of natural gas and on the characteristics of the generators in the dispatch stack. If gas prices are low (∼$4/MMBTU), a technology-agnostic, rational consumer seeking to minimize costs would prefer a carbon price over an RPS in both regions. Expensive gas (∼$7/MMBTU) requires a high carbon price to induce fuel switching and this leads to wealth transfers from consumers to low carbon producers. The RPS may be more cost effective for consumers because the added energy supply lowers market clearing prices and reduces CO 2 emissions. We find that both policies have consequences in capacity markets and that the RPS can be more cost effective than a carbon price under certain circumstances: continued excess supply of capacity, retention of nuclear generators, and high natural gas prices. (letter)

  13. Electricity planning in Japan by 2030 through scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishihara, Keiichi N.; Qi, Zhang; Mclellan, Benjamin C.; Tezuka, Tetsuo

    2013-01-01

    Under continuing policies of the mitigation of GHG (Green House Gases) emission, it is crucial to consider scenarios for Japan to realize a safe and clean future electricity system after the Fukushima nuclear accident. The development plans of nuclear power and renewable energy - mainly PV and wind power - need to be reconsidered. Therefore, in the present study, three electricity supply scenarios in 2030 are proposed according to different future nuclear power development strategies: (1) negative nuclear power; (2) conservative nuclear power; and (3) active pursuit of nuclear power. On the other side, three electricity demand scenarios are also proposed considering energy saving. The purpose of the study is to propose electricity supply systems with maximum renewable energy penetration under different nuclear power development strategies and demand situations through scenario analysis. The scenario analysis is conducted using an input-output hour-by-hour simulation model subject to constraints from technological, economic and environmental perspectives. The obtained installed capacity mix, power generation mix and CO 2 emissions of the scenarios were compared and analyzed with each other and with historical data. The results show that (1) penetration level of renewable energy is subject to the share of nuclear power as base load; (2) it is very difficult to remove nuclear power absolutely from the electricity system even when a high level of penetration of renewable energy is realized; (3) high level penetration of renewable energy can reduce the dependence on nuclear and thermal power, but there is a need for more flexible power sources to absorb fluctuations; (4) CO 2 emissions reduction compared to 1990 levels can be readily achieved with the help of renewable energy, nuclear power and energy saving in 2030. This is a revised version of the paper that was published in [1]. (author)

  14. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China's cement industry: A perspective from LMDI decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu Jinhua; Fleiter, Tobias; Eichhammer, Wolfgang; Fan Ying

    2012-01-01

    We analyze the change of energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China's cement industry and its driving factors over the period 1990–2009 by applying a log-mean Divisia index (LMDI) method. It is based on the typical production process for clinker manufacturing and differentiates among four determining factors: cement output, clinker share, process structure and specific energy consumption per kiln type. The results show that the growth of cement output is the most important factor driving energy consumption up, while clinker share decline, structural shifts mainly drive energy consumption down (similar for CO 2 emissions). These efficiency improvements result from a number of policies which are transforming the entire cement industry towards international best practice including shutting down many older plants and raising the efficiency standards of cement plants. Still, the efficiency gains cannot compensate for the huge increase in cement production resulting from economic growth particularly in the infrastructure and construction sectors. Finally, scenario analysis shows that applying best available technology would result in an additional energy saving potential of 26% and a CO 2 mitigation potential of 33% compared to 2009. - Highlights: ► We analyze the energy consumption and CO 2 emissions in China's cement industry. ► The growth of cement output is the most important driving factor. ► The efficiency policies and industrial standards significantly narrowed the gap. ► Efficiency gains cannot compensate for the huge increase in cement production. ► The potentials of energy-saving of 26% and CO 2 mitigation of 33% exist based on BAT.

  15. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF CO2 SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bert R. Bock; Richard G. Rhudy; David E. Nichols

    2001-07-01

    In order to plan for potential CO{sub 2} mitigation mandates, utilities need better information on CO{sub 2} mitigation options, especially carbon sequestration options that involve non-utility operations. One of the major difficulties in evaluating CO{sub 2} sequestration technologies and practices, both geologic storage of captured CO{sub 2} and storage in biological sinks, is obtaining consistent, transparent, accurate, and comparable economics. This project is comparing the economics of major technologies and practices under development for CO{sub 2} sequestration, including captured CO{sub 2} storage options such as active oil reservoirs, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, deep aquifers, coal beds, and oceans, as well as the enhancement of biological sinks such as forests and croplands. An international group of experts has been assembled to compare on a consistent basis the economics of this diverse array of CO{sub 2} sequestration options. Designs and data collection are nearly complete for each of the CO{sub 2} sequestration options being compared. Initial spreadsheet development has begun on concepts involving storage of captured CO{sub 2}. No significant problems have been encountered, but some additional outside expertise will be accessed to supplement the team's expertise in the areas of life cycle analysis, oil and gas exploration and production, and comparing CO{sub 2} sequestration options that differ in timing and permanence of CO{sub 2} sequestration. Plans for the next reporting period are to complete data collection and a first approximation of the spreadsheet. We expect to complete this project on time and on budget.

  16. Mitigation potential of soil carbon management overestimated by neglecting N2O emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lugato, Emanuele; Leip, Adrian; Jones, Arwyn

    2018-03-01

    International initiatives such as the `4 per 1000' are promoting enhanced carbon (C) sequestration in agricultural soils as a way to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions1. However, changes in soil organic C turnover feed back into the nitrogen (N) cycle2, meaning that variation in soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions may offset or enhance C sequestration actions3. Here we use a biogeochemistry model on approximately 8,000 soil sampling locations in the European Union4 to quantify the net CO2 equivalent (CO2e) fluxes associated with representative C-mitigating agricultural practices. Practices based on integrated crop residue retention and lower soil disturbance are found to not increase N2O emissions as long as C accumulation continues (until around 2040), thereafter leading to a moderate C sequestration offset mostly below 47% by 2100. The introduction of N-fixing cover crops allowed higher C accumulation over the initial 20 years, but this gain was progressively offset by higher N2O emissions over time. By 2060, around half of the sites became a net source of greenhouse gases. We conclude that significant CO2 mitigation can be achieved in the initial 20-30 years of any C management scheme, but after that N inputs should be controlled through appropriate management.

  17. Mitigation assessment results and priorities in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wu Zongxin; Wei Zhihong [Tsinghua Univ., Beijing (China)

    1996-12-31

    In this paper energy related CO2 emission projections of China by 2030 are given. CO2 mitigation potential and technology options in main fields of energy conservation and energy substitution are analyzed. CO2 reduction costs of main mitigation technologies are estimated and the AHP approach is used for helping assessment of priority technologies.

  18. An Improved Method of Mitigating Laser Induced Surface Damage Growth in Fused Silica Using a Rastered, Pulsed CO2 Laser

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bass, I L; Guss, G M; Nostrand, M J; Wegner, P L

    2010-10-21

    A new method of mitigating (arresting) the growth of large (>200 m diameter and depth) laser induced surface damage on fused silica has been developed that successfully addresses several issues encountered with our previously-reported large site mitigation technique. As in the previous work, a tightly-focused 10.6 {micro}m CO{sub 2} laser spot is scanned over the damage site by galvanometer steering mirrors. In contrast to the previous work, the laser is pulsed instead of CW, with the pulse length and repetition frequency chosen to allow substantial cooling between pulses. This cooling has the important effect of reducing the heat-affected zone capable of supporting thermo-capillary flow from scale lengths on the order of the overall scan pattern to scale lengths on the order of the focused laser spot, thus preventing the formation of a raised rim around the final mitigation site and its consequent down-stream intensification. Other advantages of the new method include lower residual stresses, and improved damage threshold associated with reduced amounts of redeposited material. The raster patterns can be designed to produce specific shapes of the mitigation pit including cones and pyramids. Details of the new technique and its comparison with the previous technique will be presented.

  19. CO2 emission from China's energy sector and strategy for its control

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    He, Jiankun; Deng, Jing; Su, Mingshan

    2010-01-01

    This paper identifies the main features of CO 2 emission from fossil energy combustion in China. Then it estimates China's future energy requirements and projects its CO 2 emission from 2010 to 2020 based on the scenario analysis approach. China's rate of carbon productivity growth is estimated to be 5.4% in the period 2005-2020, while the CO 2 intensity of GDP will reduce by about 50% but CO 2 emission in 2020 will still be about 40% higher than prevailing in 2005 because of rapid growth of GDP. This estimation is based on the assumption that China will implement a sustainable development strategy in consideration of climate change issues. The main objectives of the strategy are to implement an 'energy conservation first' strategy, to develop renewable energy and advanced nuclear technology actively, to readjust the country's economic structure, and to formulate and legislate laws and regulations, and to build institutions for energy conservation and development of renewable energy. It concludes that international measures to mitigate CO 2 emission will limit world fossil fuel consumption. China is not placed to replicate the modernization model adopted by developed countries and has to coordinate economic development and carbon dioxide emission control while still in the process of industrialization and modernization. China has to evolve a low carbon industrialization model. This is the key to the success of sustainable development initiatives in China.

  20. CO_2-mitigation options for the offshore oil and gas sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter; Maréchal, François; Elmegaard, Brian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The possibilities for reducing offshore CO_2-emissions, by CO_2-capture, waste heat recovery and electrification are assessed. • Multi-objective optimisation, process modelling, economic and environmental analyses are used for evaluating system designs. • A reduction of more than 15% of the total CO_2-emissions can be achieved for the present case study. • High sensitivity of the avoidance costs to the natural gas price and CO_2-tax. - Abstract: The offshore extraction of oil and gas is an energy-intensive process leading to the production of CO_2 and methane, discharged into the atmosphere, and of chemicals, rejected into the sea. The taxation of these emissions, in Norway, has encouraged the development of more energy-efficient and environmental-friendly solutions, of which three are assessed in this paper: (i) the implementation of waste heat recovery, (ii) the installation of a CO_2-capture unit and (iii) the platform electrification. A North Sea platform is taken as case study, and these three options are modelled, analysed and compared, using thermodynamic, economic and environmental indicators. The results indicate the benefits of all these options, as the total CO_2-emissions can be reduced by more than 15% in all cases, while the avoidance costs vary widely and are highly sensitive to the natural gas price and CO_2-tax.

  1. Do overarching mitigation objectives dominate transport-specific targets in the EU?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghersi, Frédéric; McDonnell, Simon; Sassi, Olivier

    2013-01-01

    This research investigates if the stringent 2020 and 2050 overarching CO 2 mitigation objectives set out by the European Union dominate its 2010 to 2020 targets specific to the transportation arena, specifically its biofuel penetration objectives and gram CO 2 per kilometre emission caps. Using a dynamic recursive general equilibrium model, IMACLIM-R, we demonstrate that these overarching targets do not dominate the interim transportation targets when the carbon policy triggering compliance with the mitigation objectives boils down to the theoretical least-cost option of uniform carbon pricing. Ground transportation is confirmed as quite insensitive to high carbon prices, even when such prices are applied over a long term. It is tempting to conclude that pursuing the mitigation objectives specific to transportation will impose unnecessary costs. However, because of the second best conditions prevailing in actual economies, and of the risk of lock-in in carbon intensive trajectories, we conclude with the urgent need for some ambitious transport-specific policy design research agenda. - Highlights: ► We review the European Union’s climate and transportation policy. ► We describe the IMACLIM-R model and how it represents transport. ► We develop an EU carbon pricing scenario that meets its aggregate CO 2 targets. ► This does not require meeting biofuel nor g/km 2010 to 2020 objectives. ► We conclude on the policy implications of this apparent inefficiency

  2. The Climate Science Special Report: Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeAngelo, B. J.

    2017-12-01

    This chapter of CSSR provides scientific context for key issues regarding the long-term mitigation of climate change. Policy analysis and recommendations are beyond the scope of CSSR. Limiting and stabilizing warming to any level implies that there is an upper limit to the cumulative amount of CO2 that can be added to the atmosphere. Eventually stabilizing the global temperature requires CO2 emissions to approach zero. For a 3.6°F (2°C) or any desired global mean temperature target, an estimated range of allowable cumulative CO2 emissions from the current period onward can be calculated. Accounting for the temperature effects of non-CO2 species, cumulative CO2 emissions are required to stay below about 800 GtC in order to provide a two-thirds likelihood of preventing 3.6°F (2°C) of warming, meaning approximately 230 GtC more could be emitted globally. Assuming global emissions follow the range between the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, emissions could continue for approximately two decades before this cumulative carbon threshold is exceeded. Meeting a 2.7°F (1.5°C) target implies much tighter constraints. Mitigation of non-CO2 species contributes substantially to near-term cooling benefits but cannot be relied upon for ultimate stabilization goals. Successful implementation of the first round of Nationally Determined Contributions associated with the Paris Agreement will provide some likelihood of meeting the long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to "well below" 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels; the likelihood depends strongly on the magnitude of global emission reductions after 2030. If interest in geoengineering increases, interest will also increase in assessments of the technical feasibilities, costs, risks, co-benefits, and governance challenges of these additional measures, which are as yet unproven at scale.

  3. Kalundborg case study, a feasibility study of CO{sub 2} storage in onshore saline aquifers. CO2STORE[Denmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larsen, Michael; Bech, N.; Bidstrup, T.; Christensen, Niels Peter; Vangkilde-Pedersen, T. [GEUS (Denmark); Biede, O. [ENERGI E2 (Denmark)

    2007-06-15

    The Danish case-study of the CO2STORE project comprises the potential future capture and underground storage of CO{sub 2} from two point sources. These are the coal fired power plant Asnaesvaerket and the Statoil refinery both located in the city of Kalundborg, Denmark. Initial mapping of the storage structure was conducted as part of the EU funded research project GESTCO that was concluded in 2003. The study identified a large underground structure forming a potential, future storage site 15 km to the northeast of the city. Porous sandstones filled with saline water at a depth of approximately 1.500 m form the reservoir. The structure covers approximately 160 km{sup 2} and a preliminary calculation suggests a storage capacity of nearly 900 million tonnes of CO2 equal to more than 150 years of CO{sub 2} emissions from the two point sources. In the Kalundborg case-study, a fictive capture and storage scenario will be formulated and modelled. The scenario is based on experiences learned through the SACS and GESTCO projects. Detailed geological modelling, reservoir simulation, reservoir and cap rock characterisation and risk assessment will be important issues for the case-study. The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS) is project leader for the Kalundborg case-study. Information on CO{sub 2} emissions from the point sources and technical and economical input for the three scenarios is provided by the industrial partners; ENERGI E2 and Statoil ASA. The scenario is designed only for this case study and does not reflect the strategic plans of ENERGI E2 nor Statoil ASA. Geochemical simulation and modelling studies on reservoir and cap rock were performed at Bureau de Recherches Geologiques et Minieres (BRGM) in France. The CO2STORE project is performed within the European Community supported 5th Framework Programme. (au)

  4. Co-controlling CO2 and NOx emission in China's cement industry: An optimal development pathway study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang-Zhao Feng

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available It is of important practical significance to reduce NOx emission and CO2 emission in China's cement industry. This paper firstly identifies key factors that influence China's future cement demand, and then uses the Gompertz model to project China's future cement demand and production. Furthermore, the multi-pollutant abatement planning model (MAP was developed based on the TIMES model to analyze the co-benefits of CO2 and NOx control in China's cement industry. During modeling analysis, three scenarios such as basic as usual scenario (BAU, moderately low carbon scenario (MLC, and radically low carbon scenario (RLC, were built according to different policy constraints and emission control goals. Moreover, the benefits of co-controlling NOx and CO2 emission in China's cement industry have been estimated. Finally, this paper proposes a cost-efficient, green, and low carbon development roadmap for the Chinese cement sector, and puts forwards countermeasures as follows: first, different ministries should enhance communication and coordination about how to promote the co-control of NOx and CO2 in cement industry. Second, co-control technology list should be issued timely for cement industry, and the R&D investment on new technologies and demonstration projects should be increased. Third, the phase-out of old cement capacity needs to be continued at policy level. Fourth, it is important to scientifically evaluate the relevant environmental impact and adverse motivation of ammonia production by NOx removal requirement in cement industry. Keywords: Cement industry, CO2 abatement, NOx reduction, Co-benefit analysis

  5. The contribution of transport policies to the mitigation potential and cost of 2 °C and 1.5 °C goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Runsen; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Hanaoka, Tatsuya

    2018-05-01

    The transport sector contributes around a quarter of global CO2 emissions; thus, low-carbon transport policies are required to achieve the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets. In this paper, representative transport policy scenarios are structured with the aim of achieving a better understanding of the interaction between the transport sector and the macroeconomy. To accomplish this, the Asia–Pacific Integrated Model/Transport (AIM/Transport) model, coupled with a computable general equilibrium model (AIM/CGE), is used to simulate the potential for different transport policy interventions to reduce emissions and cost over the period 2005–2100. The results show that deep decarbonization in the transport sector can be achieved by implementing transport policies such as energy efficiency improvements, vehicle technology innovations particularly the deployment of electric vehicles, public transport developments, and increasing the car occupancy rate. Technological transformations such as vehicle technological innovations and energy efficiency improvements provide the most significant reduction potential. The key finding is that low-carbon transport policies can reduce the carbon price, gross domestic product loss rate, and welfare loss rate generated by climate mitigation policies to limit global warming to 2 °C and 1.5 °C. Interestingly, the contribution of transport policies is more effective for stringent climate change targets in the 1.5 °C scenario, which implies that the stronger the mitigation intensity, the more transport specific policy is required. The transport sector requires attention to achieve the goal of stringent climate change mitigation.

  6. Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5°C and 2.0°C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodwin, Philip; Brown, Sally; Haigh, Ivan David; Nicholls, Robert James; Matter, Juerg M.

    2018-03-01

    To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0°C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5°C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5°C to 4.5°C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4 m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.

  7. Modeling the impacts of temperature and precipitation changes on soil CO2 fluxes from a Switchgrass stand recently converted from cropland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, Liming; Kumar, Sandeep; Chintala, Rajesh; Owens, Vance N; Clay, David; Schumacher, Joseph; Nizami, Abdul-Sattar; Lee, Sang Soo; Rafique, Rashad

    2016-05-01

    Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a perennial C4 grass native to North America and successfully adapted to diverse environmental conditions. It offers the potential to reduce soil surface carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and mitigate climate change. However, information on how these CO2 fluxes respond to changing climate is still lacking. In this study, CO2 fluxes were monitored continuously from 2011 through 2014 using high frequency measurements from Switchgrass land seeded in 2008 on an experimental site that has been previously used for soybean (Glycine max L.) in South Dakota, USA. DAYCENT, a process-based model, was used to simulate CO2 fluxes. An improved methodology CPTE [Combining Parameter estimation (PEST) with "Trial and Error" method] was used to calibrate DAYCENT. The calibrated DAYCENT model was used for simulating future CO2 emissions based on different climate change scenarios. This study showed that: (i) the measured soil CO2 fluxes from Switchgrass land were higher for 2012 which was a drought year, and these fluxes when simulated using DAYCENT for long-term (2015-2070) provided a pattern of polynomial curve; (ii) the simulated CO2 fluxes provided different patterns with temperature and precipitation changes in a long-term, (iii) the future CO2 fluxes from Switchgrass land under different changing climate scenarios were not significantly different, therefore, it can be concluded that Switchgrass grown for longer durations could reduce changes in CO2 fluxes from soil as a result of temperature and precipitation changes to some extent. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

    2017-09-01

    The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

  9. Impact of CO_2 on the Evolution of Microbial Communities Exposed to Carbon Storage Conditions, Enhanced Oil Recovery, and CO_2 Leakage

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gulliver, Djuna M.; Gregory, Kelvin B.; Lowry, Gregory V.

    2016-01-01

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a crucial part of a proposed mitigation strategy to reduce the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions to the atmosphere. During this process, CO_2 is injected as super critical carbon dioxide (SC-CO_2) in confined deep subsurface storage units, such as saline aquifers and depleted oil reservoirs. The deposition of vast amounts of CO_2 in subsurface geologic formations could unintentionally lead to CO_2 leakage into overlying freshwater aquifers. Introduction of CO_2 into these subsurface environments will greatly increase the CO_2 concentration and will create CO_2 concentration gradients that drive changes in the microbial communities present. While it is expected that altered microbial communities will impact the biogeochemistry of the subsurface, there is no information available on how CO_2 gradients will impact these communities. The overarching goal of this project is to understand how CO_2 exposure will impact subsurface microbial communities at temperatures and pressures that are relevant to GCS and CO_2 leakage scenarios. To meet this goal, unfiltered, aqueous samples from a deep saline aquifer, a depleted oil reservoir, and a fresh water aquifer were exposed to varied concentrations of CO_2 at reservoir pressure and temperature. The microbial ecology of the samples was examined using molecular, DNA-based techniques. The results from these studies were also compared across the sites to determine any existing trends. Results reveal that increasing CO_2 leads to decreased DNA concentrations regardless of the site, suggesting that microbial processes will be significantly hindered or absent nearest the CO_2 injection/leakage plume where CO_2 concentrations are highest. At CO_2 exposures expected downgradient from the CO_2 plume, selected microorganisms emerged as dominant in the CO_2 exposed conditions. Results suggest that the altered microbial community was site specific and highly dependent on pH. The site

  10. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  11. Comparison of CO2 Photoreduction Systems: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are a major contributor to the climate change equation. To alleviate concerns of global warming, strategies to mitigate increase of CO2 levels in the atmosphere have to be developed. The most desirable approach is to convert the carbon dioxide to us...

  12. Sustainable Complex Triangular Cells for the Evaluation of CO2 Emissions by Individuals instead of Nations in a Scenario for 2030

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcelo Sthel

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The concept of sustainable complex triangular cells may be applied to an individual of any human society. This concept was introduced in two recent articles. A case study was proposed to show the applicability of this new concept to Indian populations without contact with civilization and with a low environmental impact. Here we propose to apply this concept to a recent study, which claims that the concept of “common but differentiated responsibilities” refers to the emissions of individuals instead of nations. The income distribution of a country was used to estimate how its fossil fuel CO2 emissions are distributed among its citizens and, from that a global CO2 distribution was constructed. We propose the extension of the concept of complex triangular cells where its area would be equivalent to the CO2 emission per individual. In addition, a new three-dimensional geometric model for the regular hexagonal structure is offered in which the sharing of natural resources (human cooperation is employed to reduce CO2 emissions in two scenarios by 2030.

  13. Simultaneously reducing CO2 and particulate exposures via fractional recirculation of vehicle cabin air.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Heejung S; Grady, Michael L; Victoroff, Tristan; Miller, Arthur L

    2017-07-01

    Prior studies demonstrate that air recirculation can reduce exposure to nanoparticles in vehicle cabins. However when people occupy confined spaces, air recirculation can lead to carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) accumulation which can potentially lead to deleterious effects on cognitive function. This study proposes a fractional air recirculation system for reducing nanoparticle concentration while simultaneously suppressing CO 2 levels in the cabin. Several recirculation scenarios were tested using a custom-programmed HVAC (heat, ventilation, air conditioning) unit that varied the recirculation door angle in the test vehicle. Operating the recirculation system with a standard cabin filter reduced particle concentrations to 1000 particles/cm 3 , although CO 2 levels rose to 3000 ppm. When as little as 25% fresh air was introduced (75% recirculation), CO 2 levels dropped to 1000 ppm, while particle concentrations remained below 5000 particles/cm 3 . We found that nanoparticles were removed selectively during recirculation and demonstrated the trade-off between cabin CO 2 concentration and cabin particle concentration using fractional air recirculation. Data showed significant increases in CO 2 levels during 100% recirculation. For various fan speeds, recirculation fractions of 50-75% maintained lower CO 2 levels in the cabin, while still reducing particulate levels. We recommend fractional recirculation as a simple method to reduce occupants' exposures to particulate matter and CO 2 in vehicles. A design with several fractional recirculation settings could allow air exchange adequate for reducing both particulate and CO 2 exposures. Developing this technology could lead to reductions in airborne nanoparticle exposure, while also mitigating safety risks from CO 2 accumulation.

  14. Modelled impacts of mitigation measures on greenhouse gas emissions from Finnish agriculture up to 2020

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. REGINA

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available Emission scenarios based on integrated quantitative modelling are a valuable tool in planning strategies for greenhouse gas mitigation. By estimating the potential of individual mitigation measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, resources can be targeted to the most promising policy measures. This paper reports two agricultural emission scenarios for Finland up to year 2020, one baseline scenario (Scenario 1 based on the projected agricultural production levels determined by markets and agricultural policy and one with selected mitigation measures included (Scenario 2. Measures selected for the analysis consisted of 1 keeping agricultural area at the current level, 2 decreasing the proportion of organic soils, 3 increasing the proportion of grass cultivation on organic soils and 4 supporting biogas production on farms. Starting from 2005, the emissions of nitrous oxide and methane from agriculture would decrease 2.3% in Scenario 1 by 2020 whereas the respective decrease would be 11.5% in Scenario 2. According to the results, mitigation measures targeted to cultivation of organic soils have the largest potential to reduce the emissions. Such measures would include reducing the area of cultivated organic soils and increasing the proportion of perennial crops on the remaining area.

  15. CO2 supply from an integrated network : the opportunities and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heath, M.

    2006-01-01

    Strategies for using carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from an integrated network were discussed. The oil and gas industry is currently considering carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenarios for Alberta. Integrated scenarios are aimed at providing business solution for CO 2 currently being produced in the province as well as optimizing the amounts of CO 2 that can be stored in geologic sinks. The scenarios hope to transform CCS into a value-added market capable of providing optimal returns to stakeholders along the CO 2 supply chain through the creation of an infrastructure designed to transport CO 2 in sufficient volumes. The storage of CO 2 in geologic sinks is expected to remove optimal amounts of anthropogenic CO 2 from larger stationary point sources. Interest in an integrated CO 2 market in Alberta has arisen from both economic and environmental concerns. The most effective CO 2 sources are fertilizer, gas processing, and hydrogen plants. Petrochemical facilities also produce high purity CO 2 . CO 2 capture approaches include post- and pre-combustion capture technologies as well as oxyfuel conversion. It was concluded that the cost of capturing CO 2 depends on concentration and purity levels obtained at the point of capture. Major CO 2 sources in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) were provided. tabs., figs

  16. A Comparison of national CCS strategies for Northwest Europe, with a focus on the potential of common CO2 storage at the Utsira formation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramirez, Andrea; Hoefnagels, Ric; van den Broek, Machteld

    2011-01-01

    Mega structures for CO2 storage, such as the Utsira formation in the North Sea, could theoretically supply CO2 storage capacity for several countries for a period of several decades. Their use could increase the cost-effectiveness of CCS in a region while minimizing opposition from the public to CO...... region Pan European TIMES model (PET). In the models scenarios, assumptions and parameters that are not country dependent (e.g. costs related with CO2 capture technology development) have been harmonized. The results indicate that with stringent climate targets, CCS appears as a key mitigation option...... in the national portfolio of measures. Within the CCS portfolio, storage of CO2 in the Utsira formation can indeed be a cost effective option for North Europe and it represents a valuable CO2 storage option at the regional level. For instance, the United Kingdom will profit from the comparably short transport...

  17. Feasible study of international cooperation on the long-term scenario for reducing CO2. DNE-21 simulation database; CO2 sakugen ni kakawaru choki scenario ni kansuru kokusai kyoryoku kanosei chosa. DNE21 simulation database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    This report describes calculation codes of DNE-21 which can simulate the optimization model for reducing CO2. The DNE-21 was modified from the former NE-21. The term was set between 2000 and 2100. Optimization can be conducted across the different time. Non-conventional petroleum was removed from the primary energy. Capacity of nuclear power generation facilities was taken in the model for the optimization. Decision making analysis can be done by considering the uncertainty. The DNE-21 has eleven input files including the model operation, technical property related data, cost related data, data of tax, subsidy and customs, and scenario data of future energy demand and supply, GNP, population and nuclear power. The DNE-21 has fifteen output files including the optimization calculation results for the world, Oceania, the Middle East, North Africa, Central America, South America, former USSR, and OECD countries. 2 figs.

  18. ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF CO2 SEQUESTRATION TECHNOLOGIES; SEMIANNUAL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bert R. Bock; Richard G. Rhudy; David E. Nichols

    2001-01-01

    In order to plan for potential CO(sub 2) mitigation mandates, utilities need better information on CO(sub 2) mitigation options, especially carbon sequestration options that involve non-utility operations. One of the major difficulties in evaluating CO(sub 2) sequestration technologies and practices, both geologic storage of captured CO(sub 2) and storage in biological sinks, is obtaining consistent, transparent, accurate, and comparable economics. This project is comparing the economics of major technologies and practices under development for CO(sub 2) sequestration, including captured CO(sub 2) storage options such as active oil reservoirs, depleted oil and gas reservoirs, deep aquifers, coal beds, and oceans, as well as the enhancement of biological sinks such as forests and croplands. An international group of experts has been assembled to compare on a consistent basis the economics of this diverse array of CO(sub 2) sequestration options. Designs and data collection are nearly complete for each of the CO(sub 2) sequestration options being compared. Initial spreadsheet development has begun on concepts involving storage of captured CO(sub 2). No significant problems have been encountered, but some additional outside expertise will be accessed to supplement the team's expertise in the areas of life cycle analysis, oil and gas exploration and production, and comparing CO(sub 2) sequestration options that differ in timing and permanence of CO(sub 2) sequestration. Plans for the next reporting period are to complete data collection and a first approximation of the spreadsheet. We expect to complete this project on time and on budget

  19. Novel process concept for cryogenic CO2 capture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tuinier, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is generally considered as one of the necessary methods to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions to combat climate change. The costs of CCS can for a large extent be attributed to the capture process. Several post-combustion CO2 capture processes have been developed,

  20. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzaei, Maryam; Bekri, Mahmoud

    2017-04-01

    Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO 2 emission trends for Iran over 2000-2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO 2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO 2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO 2 emission outlines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling the impacts of challenging 2050 European climate mitigation targets on Ireland’s energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chiodi, Alessandro; Gargiulo, Maurizio; Rogan, Fionn; Deane, J.P.; Lavigne, Denis; Rout, Ullash K.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2013-01-01

    The Copenhagen Accord established political consensus on the 2 °C limit (in global temperature increase) and for deep cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions levels to achieve this goal. The European Union has set ambitious GHG targets for the year 2050 (80–95% below 1990 levels), with each Member State developing strategies to contribute to these targets. This paper focuses on mitigation targets for one Member State, Ireland, an interesting case study due to the growth in GHG emissions (24% increase between 1990 and 2005) and the high share of emissions from agriculture (30% of total GHG emissions). We use the Irish TIMES energy systems modelling tool to build a number of scenarios delivering an 80% emissions reduction target by 2050, including accounting for the limited options for agriculture GHG abatement by increasing the emissions reduction target for the energy system. We then compare the scenario results in terms of changes in energy technology, the role of energy efficiency and renewable energy. We also quantify the economic impacts of the mitigation scenarios in terms of marginal CO 2 abatement costs and energy system costs. The paper also sheds light on the impacts of short term targets and policies on long term mitigation pathways. - Highlights: ► We developed a techno-economic energy model of Ireland to the year 2050. ► Reductions between 80% and 95% of GHG emissions can be technically achieved. ► A 50% emissions cut in agriculture requires a 95% reductions from the energy system. ► Extending current policies implies greater electrification and efficiency measures. ► The additional cost to achieve mitigation remain less than 2% of GDP levels in 2050.

  2. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dhar, Subash; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher...... imports, besides causing more CO2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based...

  3. National energy policies: Obstructing the reduction of global CO2 emissions? An analysis of Swedish energy policies for the district heating sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Difs, Kristina

    2010-01-01

    The effect of national energy policies on a local Swedish district heating (DH) system has been studied, regarding the profitability of new investments and the potential for climate change mitigation. The DH system has been optimised regarding three investments: biomass-fuelled CHP (bio CHP), natural gas-fuelled combined cycle CHP (NGCC CHP) and biomass-fuelled heat-only boiler (bio HOB) in two scenarios (with or without national taxes and policy instruments). In both scenarios EU's tradable CO 2 emission permits are included. Results from the study show that when national policies are included, the most cost-effective investment option is the bio CHP technology. However, when national taxes and policy instruments are excluded, the DH system containing the NGCC CHP plant has 30% lower system cost than the bio CHP system. Regardless of the scenario and when coal condensing is considered as marginal electricity production, the NGCC CHP has the largest global CO 2 reduction potential, about 300 ktonne CO 2 . However, the CO 2 reduction potential is highly dependent on the marginal electricity production. Demonstrated here is that national policies such as tradable green certificates can, when applied to DH systems, contribute to investments that will not fully utilise the DH systems' potential for global CO 2 emissions reductions. - Research highlights: →Swedish energy policies are promoting biomass fuelled electricity generating technologies over efficient fossil fuel electricity generating technologies. →An efficient fossil fuel technology like the natural gas combine cycle CHP technology with high power-to-heat ratio has potential to reduce the global CO 2 emissions more than a biomass fuelled electricity generating technology. →Swedish energy policies such as tradable green certificates for renewable electricity can, when applied to district heating systems, contribute to investments that will not fully utilise the district heating systems potential for

  4. Subsurface impact of CO2: Response of carbonate rocks and wellbore cement to supercritical CO2 injection and long-term storage. Geologica Ultraiectina (310)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Liteanu, E.

    2009-01-01

    Capture of CO2 at fossil fuel power station coupled with geological storage in empty oil and gas reservoirs is widely viewed as the most promising option for reducing CO2 emissions to the atmosphere, i.e. for climate change mitigation. Injection of CO2 into such reservoirs will change their chemical

  5. Impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market: A scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reneses, Javier; Centeno, Efraim

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the Kyoto Protocol on the Iberian Electricity Market during two periods: the first phase (2005-2007) and the second phase (2008-2012). A market-equilibrium model is used in order to analyze different conditions faced by generation companies. Scenarios involving CO 2 -emission prices, hydro conditions, demand, fuel prices and renewable generation are considered. This valuation will show the significance of CO 2 -emission prices as regards Spanish and Portuguese electricity prices, generation mix, utilities profits and the total CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the results will illustrate how energy policies implemented by regulators are critical for Spain and Portugal in order to mitigate the negative impact of the Kyoto Protocol. In conclusion, the Iberian electricity system will not be able to reach the Kyoto targets, except in very favorable conditions (CO 2 -emission prices over Euro 15/ton and the implementation of very efficient energy policies)

  6. National Level Co-Control Study of the Targets for Energy Intensity and Sulfur Dioxide in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhou, Nan; Price, Lynn; Zheng, Nina; Ke, Jing; Hasanbeigi, Ali

    2011-10-15

    Since 2006, China has set goals of reducing energy intensity, emissions, and pollutants in multiple guidelines and in the Five Year Plans. Various strategies and measures have then been taken to improve the energy efficiency in all sectors and to reduce pollutants. Since controlling energy, CO{sub 2} emissions, and pollutants falls under the jurisdiction of different government agencies in China, many strategies are being implemented to fulfill only one of these objectives. Co-controls or integrated measures could simultaneously reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and criteria air pollutant emissions. The targets could be met in a more cost effective manner if the integrated measures can be identified and prioritized. This report provides analysis and insights regarding how these targets could be met via co-control measures focusing on both CO{sub 2} and SO{sub 2} emissions in the cement, iron &steel, and power sectors to 2030 in China. An integrated national energy and emission model was developed in order to establish a baseline scenario that was used to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and expected actions. In addition, CO{sub 2} mitigation scenarios and SO{sub 2} control scenarios were also established to evaluate the impact of each of the measures and the combined effects. In the power sector, although the end of pipe SO{sub 2} control technology such as flue gas desulfurization (FGD) has the largest reduction potential for SO{sub 2} emissions, other CO{sub 2} control options have important co-benefits in reducing SO{sub 2} emissions of 52.6 Mt of SO{sub 2} accumulatively. Coal efficiency improvements along with hydropower, renewable and nuclear capacity expansion will result in more than half of the SO{sub 2} emission reductions as the SO{sub 2} control technology through 2016. In comparison, the reduction from carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) is much less and has negative SO{sub 2} reductions

  7. Exploring the scope for complementary sub-global policy to mitigate CO2 from shipping

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilbert, Paul; Bows, Alice

    2012-01-01

    For a high probability of avoiding dangerous interference with the climate system, all sectors must decarbonise over coming decades. Although shipping is an energy efficient transport mode, its emissions continue to grow. Compounding this, the sector's complexity, exclusion from emission inventories and slow progress towards a mitigation strategy, limit drivers towards meaningful change. Whilst there remains a preference within the industry for global mitigation policies, the urgency of required emission cuts necessitates exploration of complimentary sub-global measures. The debate surrounding such measures tends to focus on apportioning global shipping emissions to nations. To explore the policy implications of apportionment, the UK is used in this paper to illustrate how available apportionment regimes produce a wide range of emission estimates. Moreover, in the absence of transparent fuel consumption and freight data, they have limited sensitivity, rendering them currently obsolete for monitoring purposes. Nations, regions and organisations influence shipping, particularly in relation to operations, yet debate surrounding apportionment has arguably delayed consideration of sub-global polices and indicators. This paper makes a case for putting the apportionment debate aside in the short-term to open out the full span of options, consider influence over aspects of the shipping system, and how to monitor success. - Highlights: ► Debate on sub-global CO 2 policies for shipping focuses on emission apportionment. ► Data limitations prevent apportionment regimes from monitoring policy success. ► Nations, regions and organisations directly influence shipping at sub-global levels. ► Sub-global policies influence demand and operations in ports/waters. ► Policy should focus on what can be influenced and consider how to monitor progress.

  8. Geomechanical issues of anthropogenic CO2 sequestration in exploited gas fields

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferronato, Massimiliano; Gambolati, Giuseppe; Janna, Carlo; Teatini, Pietro

    2010-01-01

    Anthropogenic CO 2 sequestration in deep geological formations may represent a viable option to fulfil the requirements of the 1997 Kyoto protocol on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. Scenarios of CO 2 sequestration through three injection wells in an exploited gas field located in the Po sedimentary basin (Italy) are simulated with the final target to understand the geomechanical consequences of the injection of carbon dioxide. Investigated scenarios include, as a hypothetical case, the long-term injection of CO 2 until the initial reservoir pressure is exceeded by as much as 40% over a period of about 100 years. The process is analyzed from the geomechanical point of view using a finite element-interface element (FE-IE) model with the following main issues addressed: (1) prediction of the possible land vertical uplift and corresponding impact on the ground infrastructures; (2) evaluation of the stress state induced in the reservoir formation with the possible generation of fractures and (3) a risk analysis for the activation of existing faults. The geomechanical constitutive law of the Northern Adriatic basin relying on the radioactive marker interpretation is implemented into the FE model, while an elasto-plastic relationship based on the Mohr-Coulomb criterion is used for the IE reproducing the fault behaviour. The in situ stress prior to the gas field exploitation is compressive with the principal horizontal stress in the direction perpendicular to the major faults equal to the vertical stress. The results show that the ground surface rebound due to the overpressure generated by the CO 2 sequestration partially mitigates the land subsidence experienced by the area because of the previous gas field depletion with differential displacements that are confined within the safety bounds suggested in the literature for the surface infrastructures. Activation of a few faults lying close to the northern reservoir boundary points to a slip of a couple of

  9. Estimating the CO2 mitigation potential of horizontal Ground Source Heat Pumps in the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Gonzalez, R.; Verhoef, A.; Vidale, P. L.; Gan, G.; Chong, A.; Clark, D.

    2012-04-01

    By 2020, the UK will need to generate 15% of its energy from renewables to meet our contribution to the EU renewable energy target. Heating and cooling systems of buildings account for 30%-50% of the global energy consumption; thus, alternative low-carbon technologies such as horizontal Ground Couple Heat Pumps (GCHPs) can contribute to the reduction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Horizontal GCHPs currently represent a small fraction of the total energy generation in the UK. However, the fact that semi-detached and detached dwellings represent approximately 40% of the total housing stocks in the UK could make the widespread implementation of this technology particularly attractive in the UK and so could significantly increase its renewable energy generation potential. Using a simulation model, we analysed the dynamic interactions between the environment, the horizontal GCHP heat exchanger and typical UK dwellings, as well as their combined effect on heat pump performance and CO2 mitigation potential. For this purpose, a land surface model (JULES, Joint UK Land Environment Simulator), which calculates coupled soil heat and water fluxes, was combined with a heat extraction model. The analyses took into account the spatio-temporal variability of soil properties (thermal and hydraulic) and meteorological variables, as well as different horizontal GCHP configurations and a variety of building loads and heat demands. Sensitivity tests were performed for four sites in the UK with different climate and soil properties. Our results show that an installation depth of 1.0m would give us higher heat extractions rates, however it would be preferable to install the pipes slightly deeper to avoid the seasonal influence of variable meteorological conditions. A value of 1.5m for the spacing between coils (S) for a slinky configuration type is recommended to avoid thermal disturbances between neighbouring coils. We also found that for larger values of the spacing between the coils

  10. Committed CO2 Emissions of China's Coal-fired Power Plants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suqin, J.

    2016-12-01

    The extent of global warming is determined by the cumulative effects of CO2 in the atmosphere. Coal-fired power plants, the largest anthropogenic source of CO2 emissions, produce large amount of CO2 emissions during their lifetimes of operation (committed emissions), which thus influence the future carbon emission space under specific targets on mitigating climate change (e.g., the 2 degree warming limit relative to pre-industrial levels). Comprehensive understanding of committed CO2 emissions for coal-fired power generators is urgently needed in mitigating global climate change, especially in China, the largest global CO2emitter. We calculated China's committed CO2 emissions from coal-fired power generators installed during 1993-2013 and evaluated their impact on future emission spaces at the provincial level, by using local specific data on the newly installed capacities. The committed CO2 emissions are calculated as the product of the annual coal consumption from newly installed capacities, emission factors (CO2emissions per unit crude coal consumption) and expected lifetimes. The sensitivities about generators lifetimes and the drivers on provincial committed emissions are also analyzed. Our results show that these relatively recently installed coal-fired power generators will lead to 106 Gt of CO2 emissions over the course of their lifetimes, which is more than three times the global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels in 2010. More than 80% (85 Gt) of their total committed CO2 will be emitted after 2013, which are referred to as the remaining emissions. Due to the uncertainties of generators lifetime, these remaining emissions would increase by 45 Gt if the lifetimes of China's coal-fired power generators were prolonged by 15 years. Furthermore, the remaining emissions are very different among various provinces owing to local developments and policy disparities. Provinces with large amounts of secondary industry and abundant coal reserves have higher committed

  11. SAGD CO2 mitigation through energy efficiency improvements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Plessis du, D.

    2010-01-01

    An evaluation of the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions reductions achieved using energy efficiency measures in steam assisted gravity drainage (SAGD) operations was presented. The efficiency of a typical SAGD operation was analyzed using an indexing tool based on the Carnot cycle efficiency to develop an ideal SAGD heat cycle. The benefits of using an organic Rankine cycle (ORC) technology to convert waste heat to electrical power were also investigated. A CO 2 abatement curve was used to identify the economic benefits and costs of various greenhouse gas (GHG) reductions. The level of recovered energy was determined in relation to energy prices, capital costs, and carbon penalties in order to determine the most efficient means of decreasing energy usage. The study demonstrated that energy efficiency can be improved by up to 20 percent, and water loss reductions of up to 50 percent can be achieved using cost-effective energy efficiency measures. Results of the study can be used to guide government policy and provide industry with practical tools to benchmark performance and improve efficiencies. 4 refs., 1 tab., 10 figs.

  12. Exploring the limits for CO2 emission abatement in the EU power and industry sectors—Awaiting a breakthrough

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rootzén, Johan; Johnsson, Filip

    2013-01-01

    This study assesses the prospects for presently available abatement technologies to achieve significant reductions in CO 2 emissions from large stationary sources of CO 2 in the EU up to year 2050. The study covers power generation, petroleum refining, iron and steel, and cement production. By simulating capital stock turnover, scenarios that assume future developments in the technology stock, energy intensities, fuel and production mixes, and the resulting CO 2 emissions were generated for each sector. The results confirm that the EU goal for reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emission in the sectors covered by the EU Emission Trading System, i.e., 21% reduction by 2020 as compared to the levels in 2005, is attainable with the abatement measures that are already available. However, despite the optimism regarding the potential for, and implementation of, available abatement strategies within current production processes, our results indicate that the power and industrial sectors will fail to comply with more stringent reduction targets in both the medium term (2030) and long term (2050). Deliberate exclusion from the analysis of mitigation technologies that are still in the early phases of development (e.g., CO 2 capture and storage) provides an indirect measure of the requirements for novel low-carbon technologies and production processes. - Highlights: • Explore the limits for CO 2 emission abatement within current production processes. • Analysis of scenarios for CO 2 emissions from EU power and industrial sectors 2010–2050. • Short-term (2020) emission targets are attainable with available abatement measures. • Fail to comply with more stringent reduction targets in the long term (2050). • Efforts to develop new low-carbon production processes need to be accelerated

  13. Energy use and CO2 emissions of China's industrial sector from a global perspective

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhou, Sheng; Kyle, G. Page; Yu, Sha; Clarke, Leon E.; Eom, Jiyong; Luckow, Patrick; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Zhang, Xiliang; Edmonds, James A.

    2013-01-01

    The industrial sector has accounted for more than 50% of China's final energy consumption in the past 30 years. Understanding the future emissions and emissions mitigation opportunities depends on proper characterization of the present-day industrial energy use, as well as industrial demand drivers and technological opportunities in the future. Traditionally, however, integrated assessment research has handled the industrial sector of China in a highly aggregate form. In this study, we develop a technologically detailed, service-oriented representation of 11 industrial subsectors in China, and analyze a suite of scenarios of future industrial demand growth. We find that, due to anticipated saturation of China's per-capita demands of basic industrial goods, industrial energy demand and CO 2 emissions approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040, then decrease gradually. Still, without emissions mitigation policies, the industrial sector remains heavily reliant on coal, and therefore emissions-intensive. With carbon prices, we observe some degree of industrial sector electrification, deployment of CCS at large industrial point sources of CO 2 emissions at low carbon prices, an increase in the share of CHP systems at industrial facilities. These technological responses amount to reductions of industrial emissions (including indirect emission from electricity) are of 24% in 2050 and 66% in 2095. - Highlights: • Eleven industrial subsectors in China are detail analyzed from a global perspective. • Industrial energy use and CO 2 emissions will approach a plateau between 2030 and 2040. • Industrial CHP and CCS are truly encouraged by carbon tax. • Some degree of industrial sector electrification are observed by carbon tax

  14. Implications of climate change scenarios for soil erosion potential in the USA

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Phillips, D L; White, D; Johnson, B [US EPA, Corvallis, OR (United States). Environmental Research Laboratory

    1993-07-01

    Atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) project that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases may result in global changes in temperature and precipitation over the next 40-100 years. Equilibrium climate scenarios from four GCMs run under doubled CO[sub 2] conditions were examined for their effect on the climatic potential for sheet and rill erosion in the conterminous USA. Changes in the mean annual rainfall factor (R) in the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) were calculated for each cropland, pastureland and rangeland sample point in the 1987 National Resources Inventory. Projected annual precipitation changes were assumed to be from differences in either storm frequency or storm intensity. With all other USLE factors held constant these changes in R translated to changes in the sheet and rill erosion national average of +2 to +16 per cent in croplands, -2 to +10 per cent in pasturelands and 5 to +22 per cent in rangelands under the eight scenarios. Land with erosion rates above the soil loss tolerance (T) level and land classified as highly erodible also increased slightly. These results show the range of sensitivity of soil erosion potential by water under projected climate change scenarios. However, actual changes in soil erosion could be mitigated by management practices, or possibly by increased crop growth and residue production under higher atmospheric CO[sub 2] concentrations.

  15. Influence of travel behavior on global CO2 emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Vries, B. de

    2013-01-01

    Travel demand is rising steeply and its contribution to global CO2 emissions is increasing. Different studies have shown possible mitigation through technological options, but so far few studies have evaluated the implications of changing travel behavior on global travel demand, energy use and CO2

  16. Analysis of low-carbon industrial symbiosis technology for carbon mitigation in a Chinese iron/steel industrial park: A case study with carbon flow analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Hui; Dong, Liang; Li, Huiquan; Fujita, Tsuyoshi; Ohnishi, Satoshi; Tang, Qing

    2013-01-01

    CO 2 mitigation strategies in industrial parks are a significant component of the Chinese climate change mitigation policy, and industrial symbiosis can provide specific CO 2 mitigation opportunity. Technology is important to support symbiosis, but few studies in China have focused on this topic at the industrial park level. This research presented a case study in a national iron and steel industrial park in China. Focus was given onto carbon mitigation through industrial symbiosis technology using substance flow analysis (SFA). Three typical iron and steel industry technologies, including coke dry quenching (CDQ), combined cycle power plant (CCPP), and CO 2 capture by slag carbonization (CCSC) were evaluated with SFA. Technology assessment was further conducted in terms of carbon mitigation potential and unit reduction cost. Compared with the Business as usual (BAU) scenario, application with CDQ, CCPP, and CCSC reduced the net carbon emissions by 56.18, 134.43, and 222.89 kg CO 2 per ton crude steel inside the industrial parks, respectively, including both direct and indirect emissions. Economic assessment revealed that the unit costs for the three technologies were also high, thereby necessitating national financial support. Finally, relevant policy suggestions and future concerns were proposed and discussed. - Highlights: • A typical carbon mitigation case study on China iron/steel industrial park. • Using carbon SFA to investigate mitigation effects of industrial symbiosis technology. • CCPP greatly reduced the indirect carbon emission embodied in power purchase. • CCSC reduced the carbon emission by distributing fixed carbon into by-product. • Specific low carbon-tech promotion policies fit to China was discussed and proposed

  17. Sensitivity of climate change mitigation estimates to assumptions about technical change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dowlatabadi, H.

    1998-01-01

    With greater certainty in anthropogenic influence on observed changes in climate there is increasing pressure for agreements to control emissions of greenhouse gases ([HOUGHTON]). While it is difficult to assess the appropriate level of mitigation, it has been argued that flexibility in meeting emission targets offers significant economic savings. Such flexibility can be exercised in terms of timing of mitigation (i.e. delay) or geographic location of the intervention (e.g. permit trading and Joint-Implementation). Much of this insight is based on standard models of technical change in energy supply and demand. However, standard model formulations rarely consider: (i) a link between the pattern of technical change and policy interventions; (ii) economies of learning; and (iii) technical progress in discovery and recovery of oil and gas. While there is evidence to support the importance of these factors in historic patterns of technical progress, the data necessary to calibrate internally consistent economic models of these phenomena have not been available. In this paper simple representations of endogenous and induced technical change have been used to explore the sensitivity of mitigation cost estimates to how technical change is represented in energy economics models. The scenarios involve control of CO 2 emissions to limit its concentration to no more than 550 ppm(v), starting in the year 2000, and delayed to 2025. This sensitivity analysis has revealed four robust insights: (i) If endogenous technical change is assumed, expected business as usual emissions are higher than otherwise estimated - nevertheless, while 25% greater CO 2 control is required for meeting the CO 2 concentration target, the cost of mitigation is 40% lower; (ii) If technical progress in oil and gas discovery and recovery is assumed, energy use and CO 2 emissions increase by 75% and 65%, respectively above the standard estimates; (iii) If the economies of learning exhibited in various

  18. Forecasting the effects of land use scenarios on farmland birds reveal a potential mitigation of climate change impacts.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karine Princé

    Full Text Available Climate and land use changes are key drivers of current biodiversity trends, but interactions between these drivers are poorly modeled, even though they could amplify or mitigate negative impacts of climate change. Here, we attempt to predict the impacts of different agricultural change scenarios on common breeding birds within farmland included in the potential future climatic suitable areas for these species. We used the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES to integrate likely changes in species climatic suitability, based on species distribution models, and changes in area of farmland, based on the IMAGE model, inside future climatic suitable areas. We also developed six farmland cover scenarios, based on expert opinion, which cover a wide spectrum of potential changes in livestock farming and cropping patterns by 2050. We ran generalized linear mixed models to calibrate the effects of farmland cover and climate change on bird specific abundance within 386 small agricultural regions. We used model outputs to predict potential changes in bird populations on the basis of predicted changes in regional farmland cover, in area of farmland and in species climatic suitability. We then examined the species sensitivity according to their habitat requirements. A scenario based on extensification of agricultural systems (i.e., low-intensity agriculture showed the greatest potential to reduce reverse current declines in breeding birds. To meet ecological requirements of a larger number of species, agricultural policies accounting for regional disparities and landscape structure appear more efficient than global policies uniformly implemented at national scale. Interestingly, we also found evidence that farmland cover changes can mitigate the negative effect of climate change. Here, we confirm that there is a potential for countering negative effects of climate change by adaptive management of landscape. We argue that such studies will help inform

  19. Urban cross-sector actions for carbon mitigation with local health co-benefits in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramaswami, Anu; Tong, Kangkang; Fang, Andrew; Lal, Raj M.; Nagpure, Ajay Singh; Li, Yang; Yu, Huajun; Jiang, Daqian; Russell, Armistead G.; Shi, Lei; Chertow, Marian; Wang, Yangjun; Wang, Shuxiao

    2017-10-01

    Cities offer unique strategies to reduce fossil fuel use through the exchange of energy and materials across homes, businesses, infrastructure and industries co-located in urban areas. However, the large-scale impact of such strategies has not been quantified. Using new models and data sets representing 637 Chinese cities, we find that such cross-sectoral strategies--enabled by compact urban design and circular economy policies--contribute an additional 15%-36% to national CO2 mitigation, compared to conventional single-sector strategies. As a co-benefit, ~25,500 to ~57,500 deaths annually are avoided from air pollution reduction. The benefits are highly variable across cities, ranging from advanced technologies in diverse city types.

  20. Carbon emission scenarios of China's power sector: Impact of controlling measures and carbon pricing mechanism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qiang Liu

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The study constructs a low-carbon path analysis model of China's power sector based on TIMES model and presents a comparative analysis of carbon emissions under Reference, Low-Carbon and Enhanced Low-Carbon scenarios, and the main difference of the three scenarios is manifested by policy selection and policy strength. The conclusions are drawn as follows: (1 The peak of carbon emission in China's power sector will range from 4.0 GtCO2 to 4.8 GtCO2, which implies an increment of 0.5–1.3 billion or 14%–35% from the 2015 levels. (2 Introducing carbon price is an effective way to inhibit coal power and promote non-fossil fuels and Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage applications (CCUS. The carbon emission reduction effects will gradually increase with carbon price. When the carbon price attains to CN¥150 t−1CO2, the CO2 emission can decrease by 36% than that without carbon price. (3 CCUS is one of important contributing factor to reduce CO2 emission in power sector. Generally speaking, the development of non-fossil fuels and energy efficiency improvement are two main drivers for carbon mitigation, but once the carbon price reaches up to CN¥106 t−1CO2, the CCUS will be required to equip with thermal power units and its contribution on carbon emission reduction will remarkably increase. When carbon price increases to CN¥150 t−1CO2 in 2050, the application of CCUS will account for 44% of total emission reduction. (4 In the scenario with carbon price of CN¥150 t−1CO2, power sector would be decarbonized significantly, and the CO2 intensity will be 0.22 kgCO2 (kW h−1, but power sector is far from the goal that achieving net zero emission. In order to realize the long-term low greenhouse gas emission development goal that proposed by the Paris Agreement, more efforts are needed to be put to further reduce the carbon emission reduction of power sector. Based on the above scenario analysis, the study proposes four recommendations

  1. The effects of adaptation and mitigation on coastal flood impacts during the 21st century. An application of the DIVA and IMAGE models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hinkel, J.; Vuuren, D.P. van; Nicholls, R.J.; Klein, R.J.T.

    2012-01-01

    This paper studies the effects of mitigation and adaptation on coastal flood impacts. We focus on a scenario that stabilizes concentrations at 450 ppm-CO 2-eq leading to 42 cm of global mean sea-level rise in 1995-2100 (GMSLR) and an unmitigated one leading to 63 cm of GMSLR. We also consider

  2. Induced seismicity and carbon storage: Risk assessment and mitigation strategies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    White, Joshua A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Foxall, William [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Bachmann, Corinne [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Chiaramonte, Laura [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Daley, Thomas M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2016-01-28

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is widely recognized as an important strategy to reduce atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Like all technologies, however, sequestration projects create a number of potential environmental and safety hazards that must be addressed. These include earthquakes—from microseismicity to large, damaging events—that can be triggered by altering pore-pressure conditions in the subsurface. To date, measured seismicity due to CO2 injection has been limited to a few modest events, but the hazard exists and must be considered. There are important similarities between CO2 injection and fluid injection from other applications that have induced significant events—e.g. geothermal systems, waste-fluid injection, hydrocarbon extraction, and others. There are also important distinctions among these technologies that should be considered in a discussion of seismic hazard. This report focuses on strategies for assessing and mitigating risk during each phase of a CO2 storage project. Four key risks related to fault reactivation and induced seismicity were considered. Induced slip on faults could potentially lead to: (1) infrastructure damage, (2) a public nuisance, (3) brine-contaminated drinking water, and (4) CO2-contaminated drinking water. These scenarios lead to different types of damage—to property, to drinking water quality, or to the public welfare. Given these four risks, this report focuses on strategies for assessing (and altering) their likelihoods of occurrence and the damage that may result. This report begins with an overview of the basic physical mechanisms behind induced seismicity. This science basis—and its gaps—is crucial because it forms the foundation for risk assessment and mitigation. Available techniques for characterizing and monitoring seismic behavior are also described. Again, this technical basis—and its limitations—must be factored into the risk

  3. CO{sub 2} control technologies: ALSTOM Power approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stamatelopoulos, G.N.; Marion, J.L.; Nsakala, N.; Griffin, T.; Bill, A. [ALSTOM Power Boiler GmbH, Stuttgart (Germany)

    2002-07-01

    ALSTOM Power is one of the largest providers of power generation equipment, turnkey power plants and services in the world. The Company is aware of the present scientific concerns regarding greenhouse gas emissions and the role of fossil fuels used in power generation. ALSTOM Power R&D laboratories run various programs aiming to find options that reduce greenhouse gas emissions through: Increasing the efficiency of power generation equipment by implementing the most modern technologies. Application of technologies to remove and sequester carbon dioxide created in power plants in an environmentally and economically favorable manner. In this paper an overview of ALSTOM's on-going CO{sub 2} mitigation development activities will be presented. First, energy efficiency improvements for both new and existing fossil fuel power plants are reviewed for both coal and natural gas fuels. Second, the development of novel power generation processes, including those involving combustion in O{sub 2}/CO{sub 2} atmospheres using pure or enriched oxygen for the purpose of CO{sub 2} capture is discussed. And finally, novel chemical-looping CO{sub 2} capture process technologies are introduced. The major challenge in CO{sub 2} capture techniques is the efficient separation and capture of CO{sub 2}. Conclusions are drawn herein regarding the technical feasibility, the resultant efficiency penalties, and the CO{sub 2} mitigation costs for the various options under study and development within ALSTOM Power. 7 refs., 8 figs.

  4. Co-Mitigation of Ozone and PM2.5 Pollution over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Xiang, S.; Yi, K.; Tao, W.

    2017-12-01

    With the rapid industrialization and urbanization, emissions of air pollutants in China were increasing rapidly during the past few decades, causing severe particulate matter and ozone pollution in many megacities. Facing these knotty environmental problems, China has released a series of pollution control policies to mitigate air pollution emissions and optimize energy supplement structure. Consequently, fine particulate matters (PM2.5) decrease recently. However, the concentrations of ambient ozone have been increasing, especially during summer time and over megacities. In this study, we focus on the opposite trends of ozone and PM2.5 over the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. We use the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) to simulate and analyze the best emission reduction strategies, and adopt the Empirical Kinetics Modeling Approach (EKMA) to depict the influences of mitigating NOx and VOCs. We also incorporate the abatement costs for NOx and VOCs in our analysis to explore the most cost-effective mitigation strategies for both ozone and PM2.5.

  5. Foraminiferal calcification and CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nooijer, L. D.; Toyofuku, T.; Reichart, G. J.

    2017-12-01

    Ongoing burning of fossil fuels increases atmospheric CO2, elevates marine dissolved CO2 and decreases pH and the saturation state with respect to calcium carbonate. Intuitively this should decrease the ability of CaCO3-producing organisms to build their skeletons and shells. Whereas on geological time scales weathering and carbonate deposition removes carbon from the geo-biosphere, on time scales up to thousands of years, carbonate precipitation increases pCO2 because of the associated shift in seawater carbon speciation. Hence reduced calcification provides a potentially important negative feedback on increased pCO2 levels. Here we show that foraminifera form their calcium carbonate by active proton pumping. This elevates the internal pH and acidifies the direct foraminiferal surrounding. This also creates a strong pCO2 gradient and facilitates the uptake of DIC in the form of carbon dioxide. This finding uncouples saturation state from calcification and predicts that the added carbon due to ocean acidification will promote calcification by these organisms. This unknown effect could add substantially to atmospheric pCO2 levels, and might need to be accounted for in future mitigation strategies.

  6. The influence of non-CO2 forcings on cumulative carbon emissions budgets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Gillett, Nathan P.; Arora, Vivek K.; Lee, Warren G.; Zickfeld, Kirsten

    2018-03-01

    Carbon budgets provide a useful tool for policymakers to help meet the global climate targets, as they specify total allowable carbon emissions consistent with limiting warming to a given temperature threshold. Non-CO2 forcings have a net warming effect in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, leading to reductions in remaining carbon budgets based on CO2 forcing alone. Carbon budgets consistent with limiting warming to below 2.0 °C, with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, were assessed in inconsistent ways by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), making the effects of non-CO2 forcings hard to identify. Here we use a consistent approach to compare 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C carbon budgets with and without accounting for the effects of non-CO2 forcings, using CO2-only and RCP8.5 simulations. The median allowable carbon budgets for 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming are reduced by 257 PgC and 418 PgC, respectively, and the uncertainty ranges on the budgets are reduced by more than a factor of two when accounting for the net warming effects of non-CO2 forcings. While our overall results are consistent with IPCC, we use a more robust methodology, and explain the narrower uncertainty ranges of carbon budgets when non-CO2 forcings are included. We demonstrate that most of the reduction in carbon budgets is a result of the direct warming effect of the non-CO2 forcings, with a secondary contribution from the influence of the non-CO2 forcings on the carbon cycle. Such carbon budgets are expected to play an increasingly important role in climate change mitigation, thus understanding the influence of non-CO2 forcings on these budgets and their uncertainties is critical.

  7. Analysis of CO2, CO and HC emission reduction in automobiles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balan, K. N.; Valarmathi, T. N.; Reddy, Mannem Soma Harish; Aravinda Reddy, Gireddy; Sai Srinivas, Jammalamadaka K. M. K.; Vasan

    2017-05-01

    In the present scenario, the emission from automobiles is becoming a serious problem to the environment. Automobiles, thermal power stations and Industries majorly constitute to the emission of CO2, CO and HC. Though the CO2 available in the atmosphere will be captured by oceans, grasslands; they are not enough to control CO2 present in the atmosphere completely. Also advances in engine and vehicle technology continuously to reduce the emission from engine exhaust are not sufficient to reduce the HC and CO emission. This work concentrates on design, fabrication and analysis to reduce CO2, CO and HC emission from exhaust of automobiles by using molecular sieve 5A of 1.5mm. In this paper, the details of the fabrication, results and discussion about the process are discussed.

  8. Potential energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction of China's cement industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ke, Jing; Zheng, Nina; Fridley, David; Price, Lynn; Zhou, Nan

    2012-01-01

    This study analyzes current energy and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emission trends in China's cement industry as the basis for modeling different levels of cement production and rates of efficiency improvement and carbon reduction in 2011–2030. Three cement output projections are developed based on analyses of historical production and physical and macroeconomic drivers. For each of these three production projections, energy savings and CO 2 emission reduction potentials are estimated in a best practice scenario and two continuous improvement scenarios relative to a frozen scenario. The results reveal the potential for cumulative final energy savings of 27.1 to 37.5 exajoules and energy-related direct emission reductions of 3.2 to 4.4 gigatonnes in 2011–2030 under the best practice scenarios. The continuous improvement scenarios produce cumulative final energy savings of 6.0 to 18.9 exajoules and reduce CO 2 emissions by 1.0 to 2.4 gigatonnes. This analysis highlights that increasing energy efficiency is the most important policy measure for reducing the cement industry's energy and emissions intensity, given the current state of the industry and the unlikelihood of significant carbon capture and storage before 2030. In addition, policies to reduce total cement production offer the most direct way of reducing total energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. - Highlights: ► This study models output and efficiency improvements in Chinese cement industry from 2011–2030. ► Energy savings and CO 2 emission reductions estimated for 3 scenarios relative to frozen scenario. ► Results reveal cumulative final energy savings potential of 27.1–37.5 EJ and 3.2–4.4 Gt CO 2 reductions. ► Increasing efficiency is the most important policy for reducing cement energy and emissions intensity.

  9. Re-Examining Embodied SO2 and CO2 Emissions in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rui Huang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available CO2 and SO2, while having different environmental impacts, are both linked to the burning of fossil fuels. Research on joint patterns of CO2 emissions and SO2 emissions may provide useful information for decision-makers to reduce these emissions effectively. This study analyzes both CO2 emissions and SO2 emissions embodied in interprovincial trade in 2007 and 2010 using multi-regional input–output analysis. Backward and forward linkage analysis shows that Production and Supply of Electric Power and Steam, Non-metal Mineral Products, and Metal Smelting and Pressing are key sectors for mitigating SO2 and CO2 emissions along the national supply chain. The total SO2 emissions and CO2 emissions of these sectors accounted for 81% and 76% of the total national SO2 emissions and CO2 emissions, respectively.

  10. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krause, Andreas; Pugh, Thomas A M; Bayer, Anita D; Li, Wei; Leung, Felix; Bondeau, Alberte; Doelman, Jonathan C; Humpenöder, Florian; Anthoni, Peter; Bodirsky, Benjamin L; Ciais, Philippe; Müller, Christoph; Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo; Olin, Stefan; Popp, Alexander; Sitch, Stephen; Stehfest, Elke; Arneth, Almut

    2018-07-01

    Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land-based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land-based mitigation scenarios from two land-use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ-GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land-use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land-use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land-use change. Differences between land-use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land-based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy. © 2018 John

  11. Towards greener data centres, 2012-2015. Trends in energy consumptions, renewable energy and CO2 emissions in various scenarios; Vergroenen datacenters 2012-2015. Ontwikkeling van energiegebruik, hiernieuwbare energie en CO2-emissies bij verschillende scenario's

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Afman, M.R.; Wielders, L.M.L.; De Buck, A.

    2012-03-15

    CE Delft has conducted a study on the potential for reducing the CO2 emissions of Dutch data centres. It was carried out for the development organisation Hivos, which is appealing to these centres to make an active effort to reduce their energy consumption and CO2 emissions. The study estimates the total power consumption of Dutch data centres at 1.6 TWh, equivalent to the consumption of 450,000 households. In a business-as-usual scenario consumption is predicted to rise substantially, to 2.1 TWh in 2015, equivalent to the consumption of 600,000 households and 2% of aggregate Dutch consumption. There is plenty of scope for the data centre industry to operate more sustainably and reduce its CO2 emissions: (1) a pivotal first step is to reduce energy consumption by improving energy efficiency. The City of Amsterdam now has energy efficiency standards in place for data centres, and if these were to hold for centres outside Amsterdam, too, a 20% reduction is energy consumption could be achieved, equivalent to the consumption of 85,000 households. Since many of the measures concerned are already cost-effective, numerous steps are already being taken in this direction; (2) the most effective way to improve the sustainability profile with respect to energy use is for data centres to invest in more renewable energy capacity, either themselves or in collaboration with other parties, passing on additional costs to customers. This will not only lead to a real decline in CO2 emissions, but also send out a clear signal. Simply purchasing 'green power' on the market, while being a far cheaper option, does not lead to cuts in carbon emissions. There is less green power available with an environmental 'Milieukeur' certificate and besides helping make consumers more environmentally aware it can also have an indirect political effect. A quite different option that does lead to carbon cuts is to offset emissions by funding renewable energy projects, in the

  12. Energy development and CO2 emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xiaolin Xi

    1993-03-01

    The objective of this research is to provide a better understanding of future Chinese energy development and CO 2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. This study examines the current Chinese energy system, estimates CO 2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and projects future energy use and resulting CO 2 emissions up to the year of 2050. Based on the results of the study, development strategies are proposed and policy implications are explored. This study first develops a Base scenario projection of the Chinese energy development based upon a sectoral analysis. The Base scenario represents a likely situation of future development, but many alternatives are possible. To explore this range of alternatives, a systematic uncertainty analysis is performed. The Base scenario also represents an extrapolation of current policies and social and economic trends. As such, it is not necessarily the economically optimal future course for Chinese energy development. To explore this issue, an optimization analysis is performed. For further understanding of developing Chinese energy system and reducing CO 2 emissions, a Chinese energy system model with 84 supply and demand technologies has been constructed in MARKAL, a computer LP optimization program for energy systems. Using this model, various technological options and economic aspects of energy development and CO 2 emissions reduction in China during the 1985-2020 period are examined

  13. U.S. regional greenhouse gas emissions analysis comparing highly resolved vehicle miles traveled and CO2 emissions: mitigation implications and their effect on atmospheric measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mendoza, D. L.; Gurney, K. R.

    2010-12-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the most abundant anthropogenic greenhouse gas and projections of fossil fuel energy demand show CO2 concentrations increasing indefinitely into the future. After electricity production, the transportation sector is the second largest CO2 emitting economic sector in the United States, accounting for 32.3% of the total U.S. emissions in 2002. Over 80% of the transport sector is composed of onroad emissions, with the remainder shared by the nonroad, aircraft, railroad, and commercial marine vessel transportation. In order to construct effective mitigation policy for the onroad transportation sector and more accurately predict CO2 emissions for use in transport models and atmospheric measurements, analysis must incorporate the three components that determine the CO2 onroad transport emissions: vehicle fleet composition, average speed of travel, and emissions regulation strategies. Studies to date, however, have either focused on one of these three components, have been only completed at the national scale, or have not explicitly represented CO2 emissions instead relying on the use of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) as an emissions proxy. National-level projections of VMT growth is not sufficient to highlight regional differences in CO2 emissions growth due to the heterogeneity of vehicle fleet and each state’s road network which determines the speed of travel of vehicles. We examine how an analysis based on direct CO2 emissions and an analysis based on VMT differ in terms of their emissions and mitigation implications highlighting potential biases introduced by the VMT-based approach. This analysis is performed at the US state level and results are disaggregated by road and vehicle classification. We utilize the results of the Vulcan fossil fuel CO2 emissions inventory which quantified emissions for the year 2002 across all economic sectors in the US at high resolution. We perform this comparison by fuel type,12 road types, and 12 vehicle types

  14. Novel process concept for cryogenic CO2 capture

    OpenAIRE

    Tuinier, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is generally considered as one of the necessary methods to mitigate anthropogenic CO2 emissions to combat climate change. The costs of CCS can for a large extent be attributed to the capture process. Several post-combustion CO2 capture processes have been developed, such as scrubbing, membrane processes and pressure swing adsorption. Amine scrubbing is currently the state of the art technology, in which CO2 is being removed by contacting the flue gas with a so...

  15. South Africa's greenhouse gas emissions under business-as-usual: The technical basis of 'Growth without Constraints' in the Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Winkler, Harald, E-mail: Harald.WInkler@uct.ac.za [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Hughes, Alison; Marquard, Andrew [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa); Haw, Mary [PJCarew Consulting, 103 Hout Street, Cape Town 8001 (South Africa); Merven, Bruno [University of Cape Town, Energy Research Centre, Upper Campus, Rondebosch, W Cape 7701 (South Africa)

    2011-10-15

    This article describes the methodology for projecting business-as-usual GHG trajectory developed in technical work for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMSs), in particular the 'Growth without Constraints' (GWCs) scenario. Technically rigorous projections are important as developing countries define their commitment to act on mitigation relative to business-as-usual (BAU). The key drivers for the GWC scenario include GDP (both growth rate and composition), population, discount rate and technological change. GDP emerged as an important driver in the research for LTMS and further analysis. If South Africa's economy grows without constraints over the next few decades, GHG emissions will continue to escalate, multiplying more than four-fold by mid-century. There is little gain in energy efficiency, and emissions continue to be dominated by energy use and supply, the latter remaining coal-based in GWC. We analyse the projections (not predictions) in relation to various measures. The LTMS GWC scenario is compared to other projections, nationally and internationally. A broadly comparable projection is being used at national level, for electricity planning. When compared to projections from international models, we find that the assumptions about GDP growth rates are a key factor, and suggest that comparisons of global data-sets against national analyses is important. - Highlights: > Specifies business-as-usual GHG trajectory for South Africa's Long-Term Mitigation Scenarios. > Provides details on methodology, drivers of emissions and key parameters. > In a scenario of Growth without Constraints, emissions would quadruple by 2050. > Analysis of resulting emission projection, not a prediction. > Compares projections from other national and international models.

  16. Rolling stones. Fast weathering of olivine in shallow seas for cost-effective CO2 capture and mitigation of global warming and ocean acidification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schuiling, R.D.; De Boer, P.L. [Department of Earth Sciences, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.021, 3508TA Utrecht (Netherlands)

    2011-07-01

    Human CO2 emissions may drive the Earth into a next greenhouse state. They can be mitigated by accelerating weathering of natural rock under the uptake of CO2. We disprove the paradigm that olivine weathering in nature would be a slow process, and show that it is not needed to mill olivine to very fine, 10 {mu}m-size grains in order to arrive at a complete dissolution within 1-2 year. In high-energy shallow marine environments olivine grains and reaction products on the grain surfaces, that otherwise would greatly retard the reaction, are abraded so that the chemical reaction is much accelerated. When kept in motion even large olivine grains rubbing and bumping against each other quickly produce fine clay- and silt-sized olivine particles that show a fast chemical reaction. Spreading of olivine in the world's 2% most energetic shelf seas can compensate a year's global CO2 emissions and counteract ocean acidification against a price well below that of carbon credits.

  17. Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mirzaei, Maryam; Bekri, Mahmoud

    2017-01-01

    Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO 2 emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO 2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985 million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO 2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO 2 emission outlines. - Highlights: • Creation of an energy consumption model using system dynamics. • The effect of different policies on energy consumption and emission reductions. • An ascending trend for the environmental costs caused by CO 2 emissions is observed. • An urgent need for energy saving and emission reductions in Iran.

  18. Assessment of the potential of state-of-the-art biomass technologies in contributing to a sustainable SADC regional mitigation energy scenario[Southern African Development Community

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yamba, F.D.; Matsika, E. [Centre for Energy, Environment and Engineering Zambia, Lusaka (Zambia)

    2003-09-01

    Southern Africa's energy supply is based on power sector collaboration - the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). SAPP was created in 1995 through an inter-utility memorandum of understanding among 12 of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) utilities including Congo DR. The aims of SAPP are: To increase regional security of supply; To smoothen load curves; To engender economies of scale in the supply base; To increase revenue for exporting countries by opening up a ready market; To share power to meet national shortfalls and to off set temporary deficits in the medium term, and in the long term to adopt and implement power sharing as an operational strategy aimed at maximising financial and environmental benefits. Currently, SAPP has an operational installed capacity of 45.000 MW, of which 84% is thermal, predominantly coal based, which represents 79% of the total supply. 16% of the total SAPP interconnected supply is hydro, while the contribution from biomass is currently non-existent. The sugar industry in Southern Africa can significantly alter this picture. Increased competitive pressures serve as economic incentives for the sugar industry to diversify their product portfolio by investing in renewable energy applications. Of the new state-of-the-art biomass based technologies available Condensing Extraction Steam Turbine (CEST) is the most promising. Application of CEST technologies in Southern Africa will modestly contribute towards a sustainable energy supply mitigation scenario. If implemented, the contribution of bioenergy will increase from 0.5% for the baseline situation, to 2.5% in 2030 and 3.0% in 2050. This scenario will also yield global environmental benefits potential through saving of GHG reductions to 14 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2030 and 20 million tonnes CO{sub 2} in 2050. Furthermore, this paper produces a monogram which will assist investors in making decisions whether to invest in the Kyoto Protocols Clean Development

  19. NEOTEC: Negative-CO2-Emissions Marine Energy With Direct Mitigation of Global Warming, Sea-Level Rise and Ocean Acidification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rau, G. H.; Baird, J.; Noland, G.

    2016-12-01

    The vertical thermal energy potential in the ocean is a massive renewable energy resource that is growing due to anthropogenic warming of the surface and near-surface ocean. The conversion of this thermal energy to useful forms via Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) has been demonstrated over the past century, albeit at small scales. Because OTEC removes heat from the surface ocean, this could help directly counter ongoing, deleterious ocean/atmosphere warming. The only other climate intervention that could do this is solar radiation "geoengineering". Conventional OTEC requires energy intensive, vertical movement of seawater resulting in ocean and atmospheric chemistry alteration, but this can be avoided via more energy efficient, vertical closed-cycle heating and cooling of working fluid like CO2 or NH3. An energy carrier such as H2 is required to transport energy optimally extracted far offshore, and methods of electrochemically generating H2 while also consuming CO2 and converting it to ocean alkalinity have been demonstrated. The addition of such alkalinity to the ocean would provide vast, stable, carbon storage, while also helping chemically counter the effects of ocean acidification. The process might currently be profitable given the >$100/tonne CO2 credit offered by California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard for transportation fuels like H2. Negative-Emissions OTEC, NEOTEC, thus can potentially provide constant, cost effective, high capacity, negative-emissions energy while: a) reducing surface ocean heat load, b) reducing thermal ocean expansion and sea-level rise, c) utilizing a very large, natural marine carbon storage reservoir, and d) helping mitigate ocean acidification. The technology also avoids the biophysical and land use limitations posed by negative emissions methods that rely on terrestrial biology, such as afforestation and BECCS. NEOTEC and other marine-based, renewable energy and CO2 removal approaches could therefore greatly increase the

  20. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Barron, Robert W.; McJeon, Haewon C.

    2015-05-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive.

  1. Integrating uncertainties for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogelj, Joeri; McCollum, David; Reisinger, Andy; Meinshausen, Malte; Riahi, Keywan

    2013-04-01

    The target of keeping global average temperature increase to below 2°C has emerged in the international climate debate more than a decade ago. In response, the scientific community has tried to estimate the costs of reaching such a target through modelling and scenario analysis. Producing such estimates remains a challenge, particularly because of relatively well-known, but ill-quantified uncertainties, and owing to limited integration of scientific knowledge across disciplines. The integrated assessment community, on one side, has extensively assessed the influence of technological and socio-economic uncertainties on low-carbon scenarios and associated costs. The climate modelling community, on the other side, has worked on achieving an increasingly better understanding of the geophysical response of the Earth system to emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). This geophysical response remains a key uncertainty for the cost of mitigation scenarios but has only been integrated with assessments of other uncertainties in a rudimentary manner, i.e., for equilibrium conditions. To bridge this gap between the two research communities, we generate distributions of the costs associated with limiting transient global temperature increase to below specific temperature limits, taking into account uncertainties in multiple dimensions: geophysical, technological, social and political. In other words, uncertainties resulting from our incomplete knowledge about how the climate system precisely reacts to GHG emissions (geophysical uncertainties), about how society will develop (social uncertainties and choices), which technologies will be available (technological uncertainty and choices), when we choose to start acting globally on climate change (political choices), and how much money we are or are not willing to spend to achieve climate change mitigation. We find that political choices that delay mitigation have the largest effect on the cost-risk distribution, followed by

  2. International Experiences with Quantifying the Co-Benefits of Energy-Efficiency and Greenhouse-Gas Mitigation Programs and Policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Christopher [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Hasanbeigi, Ali [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Price, Lynn [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Wu, Grace [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2012-09-30

    Improving the efficiency of energy production and consumption and switching to lower carbon energy sources can significantly decrease carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and reduce climate change impacts. A growing body of research has found that these measures can also directly mitigate many non-climate change related human health hazards and environmental damage. Positive impacts of policies and programs that occur in addition to the intended primary policy goal are called co-benefits. Policy analysis relies on forecasting and comparing the costs of policy and program implementation and the benefits that accrue to society from implementation. GHG reduction and energy efficiency policies and programs face political resistance in part because of the difficulty of quantifying their benefits. On the one hand, climate change mitigation policy benefits are often global, long-term, and subject to large uncertainties, and subsidized energy pricing can reduce the direct monetary benefits of energy efficiency policies to below their cost. On the other hand, the co-benefits that accrue from these efforts’ resultant reductions in conventional air pollution (such as improved health, agricultural productivity, reduced damage to infrastructure, and local ecosystem improvements) are generally near term, local, and more certain than climate change mitigation benefits and larger than the monetary value of energy savings. The incorporation of co-benefits into energy efficiency and climate mitigation policy and program analysis therefore might significantly increase the uptake of these policies. Faster policy uptake is especially important in developing countries because ongoing development efforts that do not consider co-benefits may lock in suboptimal technologies and infrastructure and result in high costs in future years. Over the past two decades, studies have repeatedly documented that non-climate change related benefits of energy efficiency and fuel conversion efforts, as a part

  3. Some scenarios of CO2 emission from the energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liik, O.; Landsberg, M.

    1996-01-01

    After Estonia regained its independence, planning of energy policy became topical. Since 1989, several expert groups have worked on the urgent problems and developments of Estonia's power engineering. Comprehensive energy system planning by mathematical modeling was accomplished in 1994. Then Tallinn Technical University acquired the MARKAL model from the Swedish National Board for Industrial and Technical Development (NUTEK). The influence of air pollution constraints on energy system development was first investigated in 1995. At the end of 1995, under the U.S. Country Studies Program, a detailed analysis of future CO 2 emissions and their reduction options began. During 1990-1993, energy demand lowered due to economic decline and sharp rise in the fuel and energy prices as well as a decrease in electricity exports, has resulting in 50% reduction of CO 2 emissions. For the same reasons, Estonia has been able to meet the requirements set in the agreements on SO 2 and NO x emissions with no special measures or costs. To meet the rigid ing SO 2 restrictions and growing energy consumption in the future, Estonia must invest in abatement and in new clean and efficient oil-shale combustion technology. Along with the old oil-shale plants closing and electricity consumption growing, other fuels will be used. The increase in energy demand then should not be fast due to constantly rising prices and efficient energy use. Measures to reduce SO 2 , and NO x emissions will also reduce CO 2 . In MARKAL runs the 1990 level of CO 2 emissions will be exceeded only along with high demand growth and absence of emissions control. Restricted availability of imported fuels and nuclear power or enabling electricity import can change the results significantly. The results discussed here can also change because the data base is being improved (such as detailed description of energy networks, description of demand-side technologies, accounting of energy conservation measures, addition of

  4. N2O emissions from the global agricultural nitrogen cycle – current state and future scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lotze-Campen

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Reactive nitrogen (Nr is not only an important nutrient for plant growth, thereby safeguarding human alimentation, but it also heavily disturbs natural systems. To mitigate air, land, aquatic, and atmospheric pollution caused by the excessive availability of Nr, it is crucial to understand the long-term development of the global agricultural Nr cycle. For our analysis, we combine a material flow model with a land-use optimization model. In a first step we estimate the state of the Nr cycle in 1995. In a second step we create four scenarios for the 21st century in line with the SRES storylines. Our results indicate that in 1995 only half of the Nr applied to croplands was incorporated into plant biomass. Moreover, less than 10 per cent of all Nr in cropland plant biomass and grazed pasture was consumed by humans. In our scenarios a strong surge of the Nr cycle occurs in the first half of the 21st century, even in the environmentally oriented scenarios. Nitrous oxide (N2O emissions rise from 3 Tg N2O-N in 1995 to 7–9 in 2045 and 5–12 Tg in 2095. Reinforced Nr pollution mitigation efforts are therefore required.

  5. Global warming mitigation strategies and programs for power plant developers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holmes, N.R.

    1992-01-01

    Power plant developers are increasingly being surprised by regulatory agencies requiring them to mitigate the carbon dioxide(CO 2 ) emissions from their proposed power plants, as part of the plant's operating permit conditions. Since carbon dioxide is not a criteria pollutant with a National Ambient Air Quality Standard, power plant developers are often troubled by this additional regulatory requirement. This presentation will describe the contribution that CO 2 makes to global warming, the role of trees and forests as carbon sequesters or sinks, some non-forestry related and forestry related mitigation programs, including the advantages, disadvantages, and some cost estimates for the forestry related CO 2 mitigation programs. As public concern about global warming continues to escalate, it is almost certain that regulatory agencies will increase their focus on CO 2 mitigation

  6. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Kerstin; Lindeskog, Mats; Olin, Stefan; Hassler, John; Smith, Benjamin

    2017-09-01

    Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  7. Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Engström

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate–economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model. We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs. Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road. For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

  8. Coral energy reserves and calcification in a high-CO2 world at two temperatures.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Verena Schoepf

    Full Text Available Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations threaten coral reefs globally by causing ocean acidification (OA and warming. Yet, the combined effects of elevated pCO2 and temperature on coral physiology and resilience remain poorly understood. While coral calcification and energy reserves are important health indicators, no studies to date have measured energy reserve pools (i.e., lipid, protein, and carbohydrate together with calcification under OA conditions under different temperature scenarios. Four coral species, Acropora millepora, Montipora monasteriata, Pocillopora damicornis, Turbinaria reniformis, were reared under a total of six conditions for 3.5 weeks, representing three pCO2 levels (382, 607, 741 µatm, and two temperature regimes (26.5, 29.0 °C within each pCO2 level. After one month under experimental conditions, only A. millepora decreased calcification (-53% in response to seawater pCO2 expected by the end of this century, whereas the other three species maintained calcification rates even when both pCO2 and temperature were elevated. Coral energy reserves showed mixed responses to elevated pCO2 and temperature, and were either unaffected or displayed nonlinear responses with both the lowest and highest concentrations often observed at the mid-pCO2 level of 607 µatm. Biweekly feeding may have helped corals maintain calcification rates and energy reserves under these conditions. Temperature often modulated the response of many aspects of coral physiology to OA, and both mitigated and worsened pCO2 effects. This demonstrates for the first time that coral energy reserves are generally not metabolized to sustain calcification under OA, which has important implications for coral health and bleaching resilience in a high-CO2 world. Overall, these findings suggest that some corals could be more resistant to simultaneously warming and acidifying oceans than previously expected.

  9. Regional differences in the CO_2 emissions of China's iron and steel industry: Regional heterogeneity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Bin; Lin, Boqiang

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the key influencing factors of CO_2 emissions in China's iron and steel industry is vital for mitigating its emissions and formulating effective environmental protection measures. Most of the existing researches utilized time series data to investigate the driving factors of the industry's CO_2 emission at the national level, but regional differences have not been given appropriate attention. This paper adopts provincial panel data from 2000 to 2013 and panel data models to examine the key driving forces of CO_2 emissions at the regional levels in China. The results show that industrialization dominates the industry's CO_2 emissions, but its effect varies across regions. The impact of energy efficiency on CO_2 emissions in the eastern region is greater than in the central and western regions because of a huge difference in R&D investment. The influence of urbanization has significant regional differences due to the heterogeneity in human capital accumulation and real estate development. Energy structure has large potential to mitigate CO_2 emissions on account of increased R&D investment in energy-saving technology and expanded clean energy use. Hence, in order to effectively achieve emission reduction, local governments should consider all these factors as well as regional heterogeneity in formulating appropriate mitigation policies. - Highlights: • We explore the driving forces of CO_2 emissions in China's steel industry. • Industrialization dominates CO_2 emissions in the iron and steel industry. • Energy structure has large potential to mitigate CO_2 emissions in the steel industry. • The influence of urbanization has significant regional differences.

  10. CO2 Capture from the Air: Technology Assessment and Implications for Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keith, D. W.

    2002-05-01

    for global climate policy are examined using DIAM [2], a stylized integrated assessment model. We find that air capture can fundamentally alter the temporal dynamics of global warming mitigation. The reason for this is that air capture differs from conventional mitigation in three key aspects. First, it removes emissions from any part of the economy with equal ease or difficulty, so its cost provides an absolute cap on the cost of mitigation. Second, it permits reduction in concentrations faster than the natural carbon cycle: the effects of irreversibility are thus partly alleviated. Third, because it is less coupled with the energy system, air capture may offer stronger economies of scale and smaller adjustment costs than the more conventional mitigation technologies. Air capture limits the total cost of a worst-case climate scenario. In an optimal sequential decision framework with uncertainty, existence of air capture decreases the need for near-term precautionary abatement. Like geoengineering, air capture thus poses a moral hazard. 1. S. Elliott, et al. Compensation of atmospheric CO2 buildup through engineered chemical sinkage. Geophys. Res. Let., 28:1235-1238, 2001. 2. Minh Ha-Duong, Michael J. Grubb, and Jean-Charles Hourcade. Influence of socioeconomic inertia and uncertainty on optimal CO2-emission abatement. Nature, 390: 270-274, 1997.

  11. Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuan, Jiahai; Xu, Yan; Hu, Zheng; Zhao, Changhong; Xiong, Minpeng; Guo, Jingsheng

    2014-01-01

    China is in the processes of rapid industrialization and urbanization. Based on the Kaya identity, this paper proposes an analytical framework for various energy scenarios that explicitly simulates China's economic development, with a prospective consideration on the impacts of urbanization and income distribution. With the framework, China's 2050 energy consumption and associated CO 2 reduction scenarios are constructed. Main findings are: (1) energy consumption will peak at 5200–5400 million tons coal equivalent (Mtce) in 2035–2040; (2) CO 2 emissions will peak at 9200–9400 million tons (Mt) in 2030–2035, whilst it can be potentially reduced by 200–300 Mt; (3) China's per capita energy consumption and per capita CO 2 emission are projected to peak at 4 tce and 6.8 t respectively in 2020–2030, soon after China steps into the high income group. - Highlights: • A framework for modeling China's energy and CO 2 emissions is proposed. • Scenarios are constructed based on various assumptions on the driving forces. • Energy consumption will peak in 2035–2040 at 5200–5400 Mtce. • CO 2 emissions will peak in 2030–2035 at about 9300 Mt and be cut by 300 Mt in a cleaner energy path. • Energy consumption and CO 2 emissions per capita will peak soon after China steps into the high income group

  12. The differential impact of low-carbon technologies on climate change mitigation cost under a range of socioeconomic and climate policy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barron, Robert; McJeon, Haewon

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the effect of several key parameters of low carbon energy technologies on the cost of abatement. A methodology for determining the minimum level of performance required for a parameter to have a statistically significant impact on CO 2 abatement cost is developed and used to evaluate the impact of eight key parameters of low carbon energy supply technologies on the cost of CO 2 abatement. The capital cost of nuclear technology is found to have the greatest impact of the parameters studied. The cost of biomass and CCS technologies also have impacts, while their efficiencies have little, if any. Sensitivity analysis of the results with respect to population, GDP, and CO 2 emission constraint show that the minimum performance level and impact of nuclear technologies is consistent across the socioeconomic scenarios studied, while the other technology parameters show different performance under higher population, lower GDP scenarios. Solar technology was found to have a small impact, and then only at very low costs. These results indicate that the cost of nuclear is the single most important driver of abatement cost, and that trading efficiency for cost may make biomass and CCS technologies more competitive. - Highlights: • The impact of low carbon energy technology on abatement cost is considered. • Nuclear has the largest impact among technologies considered. • Cost has higher impact than efficiency for biomass technologies. • Biomass technologies generally have larger impacts than carbon capture. • Biomass technologies are more valuable in low GDP, high population scenarios

  13. Sequestering CO2 in the Ocean: Options and Consequences

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rau, G. H.; Caldeira, K.

    2002-12-01

    The likelihood of negative climate and environmental impacts associated with increasing atmospheric CO2 has prompted serious consideration of various CO2 mitigation strategies. Among these are methods of capturing and storing of CO2 in the ocean. Two approaches that have received the most attention in this regard have been i) ocean fertilization to enhanced biological uptake and fixation of CO2, and ii) the chemical/mechanical capture and injection of CO2 into the deep ocean. Both methods seek to enhance or speed up natural mechanisms of CO2 uptake and storage by the ocean, namely i) the biological CO2 "pump" or ii) the passive diffusion of CO2 into the surface ocean and subsequent mixing into the deep sea. However, as will be reviewed, concerns about the capacity and effectiveness of either strategy in long-term CO2 sequestration have been raised. Both methods are not without potentially significant environmental impacts, and the costs of CO2 capture and injection (option ii) are currently prohibitive. An alternate method of ocean CO2 sequestration would be to react and hydrate CO2 rich waste gases (e.g., power plant flue gas) with seawater and to subsequently neutralize the resulting carbonic acid with limestone to produce calcium and bicarbonate ions in solution. This approach would simply speed up the CO2 uptake and sequestration that naturally (but very slowly) occurs via global carbonate weathering. This would avoid much of the increased acidity associated with direct CO2 injection while obviating the need for costly CO2 separation and capture. The addition of the resulting bicarbonate- and carbonate-rich solution to the ocean would help to counter the decrease in pH and carbonate ion concentration, and hence loss of biological calcification that is presently occurring as anthropogenic CO2 invades the ocean from the atmosphere. However, as with any approach to CO2 mitigation, the costs, impacts, risks, and benefits of this method need to be better understood

  14. Second generation CO2 FEP analysis: Cassifcarbon sequestration scenario identification framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yavuz, F.T.; Tilburg, T. van; Pagnier, H.

    2008-01-01

    A novel scenario analysis framework has been created, called Carbon Sequestration Scenario Identification Framework (CASSIF). This framework addresses containment performance defined by the three major categories: well, fault and seal integrity. The relevant factors that influence the integrity are

  15. CO2 reduction strategies for the Northern Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Benders, Rene; Moll, Henk; Noorman, Klaas Jan; Wiersma, Gerwin

    2011-01-01

    The concern about global warming initiated ambitious CO2 reduction goals in cities and regions in the Netherlands. This article describes a study of such a local initiative for the Northern Netherlands. The research aimed to develop CO2 reduction scenarios for 2035 with national and international

  16. Energy technology roll-out for climate change mitigation: A multi-model study for Latin America

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    van der Zwaan, Bob; Kober, Tom; Calderon, Silvia; Clarke, Leon; Daenzer, Katie; Kitous, Alban; Labriet, Maryse; Lucena, André F. P.; Octaviano, Claudia; Di Sbroiavacca, Nicolas

    2016-05-01

    In this paper we investigate opportunities for energy technology deployment under climate change mitigation efforts in Latin America. Through several carbon tax and CO2 abatement scenarios until 2050 we analyze what resources and technologies, notably for electricity generation, could be cost-optimal in the energy sector to significantly reduce CO2 emissions in the region. By way of sensitivity test we perform a cross-model comparison study and inspect whether robust conclusions can be drawn across results from different models as well as different types of models (general versus partial equilibrium). Given the abundance of biomass resources in Latin America, they play a large role in energy supply in all scenarios we inspect. This is especially true for stringent climate policy scenarios, for instance because the use of biomass in power plants in combination with CCS can yield negative CO2 emissions. We find that hydropower, which today contributes about 800 TWh to overall power production in Latin America, could be significantly expanded to meet the climate policies we investigate, typically by about 50%, but potentially by as much as 75%. According to all models, electricity generation increases exponentially with a two- to three-fold expansion between 2010 and 2050.Wefind that in our climate policy scenarios renewable energy overall expands typically at double-digit growth rates annually, but there is substantial spread in model results for specific options such as wind and solar power: the climate policies that we simulate raise wind power in 2050 on average to half the production level that hydropower provides today, while they raise solar power to either a substantially higher or a much lower level than hydropower supplies at present, depending on which model is used. Also for CCS we observe large diversity in model outcomes, which reflects the uncertainties with regard to its future implementation potential as a result of

  17. Integrated assessment of CO2 and SO2 policies in North East Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chae, Yeora; Hope, Chris

    2003-01-01

    This study quantifies the costs and impacts of six scenarios for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) emissions in North East Asia (NEA) within an integrated probabilistic analysis. The inclusion of the cooling effect of sulphates means that CO 2 control in China would be likely to increase the regional temperature in NEA in the short-term. This is because CO 2 control measures would also automatically control SO 2 emissions, and so reduce their cooling effect. The scenario that involves no control for CO 2 and SO 2 emissions has the lowest mean total cumulative net present cost (NPC) as compared to scenarios with various SO 2 controls or with CO 2 reduced to 5% below year 1990 levels (in China and Japan), or any combination of SO 2 + CO 2 controls at these levels. The mean value of the total cumulative NPC of climate change damage, acid rain damage, CO 2 and SO 2 control cost in China for no CO 2 or SO 2 control is about US$ 0.1 trillion, compared, for instance, to about US$ 1.1 trillion for CO 2 emission stabilisation at 1990 levels and no SO 2 control. SO 2 control also brings more disadvantages than advantages in China and Japan. The higher mean climate change impacts and control costs outweigh the benefit of lower acid rain damage. However, strict SO 2 control brings more benefits than costs in South Korea where there is a large urban population and the sensitivity to acid rain is high. However, the impacts of emissions and valuation of these effects are very uncertain. Uncertainty analysis shows that the key determinants of the total NPC of costs and damages are exported climate change damages, followed by domestic climate change damages, and acid rain damages. The use of other valuation methods would make health damage bigger than this study's estimation and acid rain damage could be a major concern in the future

  18. CO{sub 2}-balance in the athmosphere and CO{sub 2}-utilisation : an engineering approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Turunen, H.

    2012-07-01

    The subject of the thesis was to analyze by an engineering approach the global CO{sub 2} balance and CO{sub 2} utilisation. The aim was to apply methods and knowledge used in engineering sciences to describe the global CO{sub 2} balance and the role of CO{sub 2} in anthropogenic utilisation applications. Moreover barriers restricting commercialisation of new applications are discussed. These subjects were studied by literature reviews and calculations based on thermodynamics models. Engineering methods have shown to be applicable to describe the global balance of CO{sub 2} and to define by a numerical way the Earth's system carrying capacity. Direct and indirect actions, which mitigate the overload situation, were derived from the results. To screen out the attractive CO{sub 2} properties in utilisation applications a mapping analysis was carried out. Properties, which enhance mass and heat transfer, are one of the most meaningful characteristics from the chemical engineering point of view. Attractive properties are often achieved at the supercritical state. Engineering thermodynamic methods were used in fluid phase determination of the case studies. Even simple methods are sufficient to advice experimental research work. The thermodynamic knowledge is the basement in creation of industrial scale chemical processes. If detailed information on system properties is needed, a model development due to the special requirements of high pressure systems and CO{sub 2} features is required. This knowledge covers property information from all the components involved in chemical reactions. In addition to engineering knowledge successful technology transfer requires positive social structure as well. Finally, if the humankind is willing to mimic Nature and use light of the Sun as an energy source in engineering systems, development of thermodynamic methods is required also in this area. Especially the work terms, originally defined in classical mechanical thermodynamics

  19. Trends in global CO2 emissions. 2013 Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olivier, J.G.J.; Peters, J.A.H.W. [PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Den Haag (Netherlands); Janssens-Maenhout, G. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, European Commission' s Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy); Muntean, M. [Institute for Environment and Sustainability IES, Joint Research Centre JRC, Ispra (Italy)

    2013-10-15

    This report discusses the results of a trend assessment of global CO2 emissions up to 2012 and updates last year's assessment. This assessment focuses on the changes in annual CO2 emissions from 2011 to 2012, and includes not only fossil-fuel combustion on which the BP reports are based, but also incorporates other relevant CO2 emissions sources including flaring of waste gas during gas and oil production, cement clinker production and other limestone uses, feedstock and other non-energy uses of fuels, and several other small sources. The report clarifies the CO2 emission sources covered, and describes the methodology and data sources. More details are provided in Annex 1 over the 2010-2012 period, including a discussion of the degree of uncertainty in national and global CO2 emission estimates. Chapter 2 presents a summary of recent CO2 emission trends, per main country or region, including a comparison between emissions per capita and per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and of the underlying trend in fossil-fuel production and use, non-fossil energy and other CO2 sources. Specific attention is given to developments in shale gas and oil production and oil sands production and their impact on CO2 emissions. To provide a broader context of global emissions trends, international greenhouse gas mitigation targets and agreements are also presented, including different perspectives of emission accounting per country. In particular, annual trends with respect to the Kyoto Protocol target and Cancun agreements and cumulative global CO2 emissions of the last decade are compared with scientific literature that analyses global emissions in relation to the target of 2{sup 0}C maximum global warming in the 21st century, which was adopted in the UN climate negotiations. In addition, we briefly discuss the rapid development and implementation of various emission trading schemes, because of their increasing importance as a cross-cutting policy instrument for mitigating

  20. Asia's role in mitigating climate change: A technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Haller, Markus; Bauer, Nico

    2012-01-01

    We use the ReMIND-R model to analyze the role of Asia in the context of a global effort to mitigate climate change. We introduce a novel method of secondary energy based mitigation shares, which allows us to quantify the economic mitigation potential of technologies in different regions and final energy carriers. The 2005 share of Asia in global CO 2 emissions amounts to 38%, and is projected to grow to 53% under business-as-usual until the end of the century. Asia also holds a large fraction of the global mitigation potential. A broad portfolio of technologies is deployed in the climate policy scenarios. We find that biomass in combination with CCS, other renewables, and end-use efficiency each make up a large fraction of the global mitigation potential, followed by nuclear and fossil CCS. We find considerable differences in decarbonization patterns across the final energy types electricity, heat and transport fuels. Regional differences in technology use are a function of differences in resource endowments, and structural differences in energy end use. Under climate policy, a substantial mitigation potential of non-biomass renewables emerges for China and other developing countries of Asia (OAS). Asia also accounts for the dominant share of the global mitigation potential of nuclear energy. In view of the substantial near term investments into new energy infrastructure in China and India, early adoption of climate policy prevents lock-in into carbon intensive infrastructure and thus leads to a much higher long-term mitigation potential. - Highlights: ► We develop a novel methodology for the attribution of emission reductions to technologies. ► Asia accounts for a substantial and increasing share of global CO 2 emissions. ► A broad portfolio of technologies contributes to emission reductions. ► Early action increases the long term mitigation potential of China and India.

  1. Forest fires in Mediterranean countries: CO2 emissions and mitigation possibilities through prescribed burning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vilén, Terhi; Fernandes, Paulo M

    2011-09-01

    Forest fires are an integral part of the ecology of the Mediterranean Basin; however, fire incidence has increased dramatically during the past decades and fire is expected to become more prevalent in the future due to climate change. Fuel modification by prescribed burning reduces the spread and intensity potential of subsequent wildfires. We used the most recently published data to calculate the average annual wildfire CO(2) emissions in France, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain following the IPCC guidelines. The effect of prescribed burning on emissions was calculated for four scenarios of prescribed burning effectiveness based on data from Portugal. Results show that prescribed burning could have a considerable effect on the carbon balance of the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector in Mediterranean countries. However, uncertainty in emission estimates remains large, and more accurate data is needed, especially regarding fuel load and fuel consumption in different vegetation types and fuel layers and the total area protected from wildfire per unit area treated by prescribed burning, i.e. the leverage of prescribed burning.

  2. Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Wise, Marshall A.; Patel, Pralit L.; Eom, Jiyong; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2014-08-01

    Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5 o x 0.5o resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W/m2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining

  3. Scale-up and large-scale production of Tetraselmis sp. CTP4 (Chlorophyta) for CO2 mitigation: from an agar plate to 100-m3 industrial photobioreactors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Hugo; Páramo, Jaime; Silva, Joana; Marques, Ana; Barros, Ana; Maurício, Dinis; Santos, Tamára; Schulze, Peter; Barros, Raúl; Gouveia, Luísa; Barreira, Luísa; Varela, João

    2018-03-23

    Industrial production of novel microalgal isolates is key to improving the current portfolio of available strains that are able to grow in large-scale production systems for different biotechnological applications, including carbon mitigation. In this context, Tetraselmis sp. CTP4 was successfully scaled up from an agar plate to 35- and 100-m 3 industrial scale tubular photobioreactors (PBR). Growth was performed semi-continuously for 60 days in the autumn-winter season (17 th October - 14 th December). Optimisation of tubular PBR operations showed that improved productivities were obtained at a culture velocity of 0.65-1.35 m s -1 and a pH set-point for CO 2 injection of 8.0. Highest volumetric (0.08 ± 0.01 g L -1 d -1 ) and areal (20.3 ± 3.2 g m -2 d -1 ) biomass productivities were attained in the 100-m 3 PBR compared to those of the 35-m 3 PBR (0.05 ± 0.02 g L -1 d -1 and 13.5 ± 4.3 g m -2 d -1 , respectively). Lipid contents were similar in both PBRs (9-10% of ash free dry weight). CO 2 sequestration was followed in the 100-m 3 PBR, revealing a mean CO 2 mitigation efficiency of 65% and a biomass to carbon ratio of 1.80. Tetraselmis sp. CTP4 is thus a robust candidate for industrial-scale production with promising biomass productivities and photosynthetic efficiencies up to 3.5% of total solar irradiance.

  4. CO2 and albedo climate impacts of extratropical carbon and biomass plantations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schaeffer, M.; Eickhout, B.; Hoogwijk, M.; Strengers, B.; Vuuren, van D.J.; Leemans, R.; Opsteegh, T.

    2006-01-01

    We explored the climate impacts for two land-use change scenarios, aimed at mitigating the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Using the integrated assessment model IMAGE 2.2, we found that the large-scale implementation in the extratropics of either carbon-sequestration or modern-biomass

  5. Intentional salt clogging: A novel concept for long-term CO2 sealing

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wasch, L.J.; Wollenweber, J.; Tambach, T.J.

    2013-01-01

    Well abandonment in the context of CO2 storage operations demands a mitigation strategy for CO2 leakage along the wellbore. To prevent possible CO2 transport toward the surface and to protect the wellbore material from contact with acid brine, we propose forming a salt seal around the wellbore at

  6. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Hertwich, Edgar G; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO 2 -eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO 2 -eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120–140 Tg CO 2 -eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power. (letter)

  7. Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

    2016-01-01

    The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

  8. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction in different economic sectors: Mitigation measures, health co-benefits, knowledge gaps, and policy implications.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jinghong; Hou, Hongli; Zhai, Yunkai; Woodward, Alistair; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Kovats, Sari; Wilkinson, Paul; Li, Liping; Song, Xiaoqin; Xu, Lei; Meng, Bohan; Liu, Xiaobo; Wang, Jun; Zhao, Jie; Liu, Qiyong

    2018-05-15

    To date, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mitigation strategies and the accompanying health co-benefits in different economic sectors have not been fully investigated. The purpose of this paper is to review comprehensively the evidence on GHG mitigation measures and the related health co-benefits, identify knowledge gaps, and provide recommendations to promote further development and implementation of climate change response policies. Evidence on GHG emissions, abatement measures and related health co-benefits has been observed at regional, national and global levels, involving both low- and high-income societies. GHG mitigation actions have mainly been taken in five sectors: energy generation, transport, food and agriculture, household and industry, consistent with the main sources of GHG emissions. GHGs and air pollutants to a large extent stem from the same sources and are inseparable in terms of their atmospheric evolution and effects on ecosystem; thus, GHG reductions are usually, although not always, estimated to have cost effective co-benefits for public health. Some integrated mitigation strategies involving multiple sectors, which tend to create greater health benefits. The pros and cons of different mitigation measures, issues with existing knowledge, priorities for research, and potential policy implications were also discussed. Findings from this study can play a role not only in motivating large GHG emitters to make decisive changes in GHG emissions, but also in facilitating cooperation at international, national and regional levels, to promote GHG mitigation policies that protect public health from climate change and air pollution simultaneously. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. ANCRE scenarios for energy transition. Report 2013

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alazard-Toux, Nathalie; Des Courtils, Nicolas; Hache, Emmanuel; Liegeard, Alban; Lorne, Daphne; Duplan, Jean-Luc; Kalaydjian, Francois; Heintze, Eric; Tilagone, Richard; Henriot, Stephane; Forti, Laurent; Barthelemy, Pascal; Merlen, Elisabeth; Criqui, Patrick; Mathy, Sandrine; Menanteau, Philippe; Devezeaux De Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Avril, Sophie; Cavata, Christian; Le Duigou, Alain; Le Net, Elisabeth; Marcucci-Demeure, Jeanne; Safa, Henri; Topper, Benjamin; Touboul, Francoise; Carre, Franck; Joly, Jean-Pierre; Charbit, Francoise; Mermilliod, Nicole; Mermilliod, Nicole; Le Net, Elisabeth; Teissier, Olivier; Charrue, Herve; Colonna, Paul; Legrand, Jack; Vidal, Olivier; Goffe, Bruno; Mueller, Alex; Flamant, Gilles; Allard, Francis; Most, Jean-Michel; Matarasso, Pierre; Brault, Pascal; Lemoine, Lionel; Achard, Jean-Luc; Uster, Guillaume; Delsey, Jean; Lucchese, Paul; Tadrist, Lounes; Hadjsaid, Nouredine

    2014-01-01

    This report first gives an overview of the energy system by presenting the determining factors of energy demand and of CO 2 emissions per sector (housing and office building, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and biomass), by analysing energy systems and CO 2 emissions (energy sources, energy vectors, networks and storage, energy and CO 2 assessment for France), and by describing the guidelines of the scenarios proposed by ANCRE. The three main scenarios are characterized by a stronger sobriety, an electricity-based de-carbonation (with a variant based on nuclear and renewable energies), and diversified vectors. They are notably compared to a trend-based reference scenario. Results are discussed in terms of energy consumption (primary and final energy, consumption by the different sectors), of energy production and CO 2 emissions. Scenarios are assessed in terms of economic, environmental and societal, political and strategic criteria. Some consequences for research topics and funding are identified

  10. Evasion of CO2 injected into the ocean in the context of CO2 stabilization

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kheshgi, Haroon S.

    2004-01-01

    The eventual evasion of injected CO 2 to the atmosphere is one consideration when assessing deep-sea disposal of CO 2 as a potential response option to climate change concerns. Evasion estimated using an ocean carbon cycle model is compared to long-term trajectories for future CO 2 emissions, including illustrative cases leading to stabilization of CO 2 concentration at various levels. Modeled residence time for CO 2 injected into the deep ocean exceeds the 100-year time-scale usually considered in scenarios for future emissions, and the potential impacts of climate change. Illustrative cases leading monotonically to constant CO 2 concentration have been highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to give guidance on possible timing of emission reductions that may be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at various levels. For stabilization cases considered, significant modeled evasion does not occur until long after CO 2 emissions have reached a maximum and begun to decline. Illustrative cases can also lead to a maximum in CO 2 concentration followed by a decline to slowly decreasing concentrations. In such cases, future injection of emissions into the deep ocean leads to lower maximum CO 2 concentration, with less effect on concentration later on in time

  11. Microalgal technology for remediation of CO{sub 2} from power plant flue gas: A techno-economic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kadam, K.L. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Power plants burning fossil fuels are a major source of CO{sub 2} which is implicated in global warming. Microalgal systems which photosynthetically assimilate carbon dioxide can be used for mitigation of this major greenhouse gas. A techno-economic model was developed for trapping carbon dioxide from flue gases by microalgae in outdoor ponds. The model also shows that algal lipid content and growth rate are both important for an economical process, but a trade-off exists between the two, i.e., a high lipid content and low growth rate combination can be as effective as a low lipid content and high growth rate combination. Hence, these two parameters may be treated as a composite parameter to be optimized to yield the least CO{sub 2} mitigation cost. Model predictions were also used to compare the microalgal technology with alternative technologies in terms of CO{sub 2} mitigation costs. Incorporating advances anticipated in the future into the design basis, the model yields a CO{sub 2} mitigation cost that is competitive with other CO{sub 2} remediation technologies currently being proposed. Furthermore, this technology also provides a lipid feedstock for producing a renewable fuel such as biodiesel. Deployment of this technology for CO{sub 2} mitigation looks attractive if research goals put forth by the model are achieved.

  12. Energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions in Iran, 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mirzaei, Maryam [Department of Banking and Finance, Multimedia University (Malaysia); Bekri, Mahmoud [Economic and Statistic Institute, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (Germany)

    2017-04-15

    Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO{sub 2} emission trends for Iran over 2000–2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO{sub 2} emissions in 2025 will reach 985 million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO{sub 2} emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO{sub 2} emission outlines. - Highlights: • Creation of an energy consumption model using system dynamics. • The effect of different policies on energy consumption and emission reductions. • An ascending trend for the environmental costs caused by CO{sub 2} emissions is observed. • An urgent need for energy saving and emission reductions in Iran.

  13. Effects of decarbonising international shipping and aviation on climate mitigation and air pollution

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessens, Olivier; Anger, Annela; Barker, Terry; Pyle, John

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A global emissions trading scheme is applied to international aviation and shipping. • We couple an energy–environment–economy model with an atmospheric model. • 65% reduction on CO 2 emissions in 2050 reduces other pollutants emissions. • Climate effects are reduced and air quality is improved by the scheme. - Abstract: This paper assesses the effects of a global emissions trading scheme (GETS) for international aviation and shipping as a way of reducing emissions of both greenhouse gases (GHG) and other atmospheric emissions that lead to air pollution. A prior assessment of such integration requires the coupling of energy–environment–economy (E3) global modelling of mitigation policies with the atmospheric modelling of pollution sources, mixing and deposition. We report the methodology and results of coupling of the E3MG model and the global atmospheric model, p-TOMCAT. We assess the effects of GETS on the concentrations of atmospheric gases and on the radiative forcing, comparing a GETS scenario to a reference BASE scenario with higher use of fossil fuels. The paper assesses the outcome of GETS for atmospheric composition and radiative forcing for 2050. GETS on international shipping and aviation reduces their CO 2 and non-CO 2 emissions up to 65%. As a consequence atmospheric concentrations are modified and the radiative forcing due to international transport is reduced by different amounts as a function of the pollutant studied (15% for CO 2 , 35% for methane and up to 50% for ozone)

  14. Potential for iron oxides to control metal releases in CO2 sequestration scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berger, P.M.; Roy, W.R.

    2011-01-01

    The potential for the release of metals into groundwater following the injection of carbon dioxide (CO2) into the subsurface during carbon sequestration projects remains an open research question. Changing the chemical composition of even the relatively deep formation brines during CO2 injection and storage may be of concern because of the recognized risks associated with the limited potential for leakage of CO2-impacted brine to the surface. Geochemical modeling allows for proactive evaluation of site geochemistry before CO2 injection takes place to predict whether the release of metals from iron oxides may occur in the reservoir. Geochemical modeling can also help evaluate potential changes in shallow aquifers were CO2 leakage to occur near the surface. In this study, we created three batch-reaction models that simulate chemical changes in groundwater resulting from the introduction of CO2 at two carbon sequestration sites operated by the Midwest Geological Sequestration Consortium (MGSC). In each of these models, we input the chemical composition of groundwater samples into React??, and equilibrated them with selected mineral phases and CO 2 at reservoir pressure and temperature. The model then simulated the kinetic reactions with other mineral phases over a period of up to 100 years. For two of the simulations, the water was also at equilibrium with iron oxide surface complexes. The first model simulated a recently completed enhanced oil recovery (EOR) project in south-central Illinois in which the MGSC injected into, and then produced CO2, from a sandstone oil reservoir. The MGSC afterwards periodically measured the brine chemistry from several wells in the reservoir for approximately two years. The sandstone contains a relatively small amount of iron oxide, and the batch simulation for the injection process showed detectable changes in several aqueous species that were attributable to changes in surface complexation sites. After using the batch reaction

  15. Second Generation CO2 FEP Analysis: CASSIF - Carbon Storage Scenario Identification Framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yavuz, F.; Tilburg, T. van; David, P.; Spruijt, M.; Wildenborg, T.

    2009-01-01

    Carbon dioxide Capture and Storage (CCS) is a promising contribution to reduce further increase of atmospheric CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. The CCS concept anticipates that large amounts of CO2 are going to be stored in the subsurface for the long term. Since CCS is a rather new technology,

  16. Analyses of CO2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Xianbing; Ishikawa, Masanobu; Wang Can; Dong Yanli; Liu Wenling

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines CO 2 emissions embodied in Japan-China trade. Besides directly quantifying the flow of CO 2 emissions between the two countries by using a traditional input-output (IO) model, this study also estimates the effect of bilateral trade to CO 2 emissions by scenario analysis. The time series of quantifications indicate that CO 2 emissions embodied in exported goods from Japan to China increased overall from 1990 to 2000. The exported CO 2 emissions from China to Japan greatly increased in the first half of the 1990s. However, by 2000, the amount of emissions had reduced from 1995 levels. Regardless, there was a net export of CO 2 emissions from China to Japan during 1990-2000. The scenario comparison shows that the bilateral trade has helped the reduction of CO 2 emissions. On average, the Chinese economy was confirmed to be much more carbon-intensive than Japan. The regression analysis shows a significant but not perfect correlation between the carbon intensities at the sector level of the two countries. In terms of CO 2 emission reduction opportunities, most sectors of Chinese industry could benefit from learning Japanese technologies that produce lower carbon intensities.

  17. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets: The role of land processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, S. I.; Donat, M.; Pitman, A.; Knutti, R.; Wilby, R.; Vogel, M.; Orth, R.

    2016-12-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted "2° and 1.5° targets", may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing CO2 emissions because they are disconnected from their implications. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets is more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. A recent publication (Seneviratne et al. 2016, Nature) reveals that regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. They thus allow a better communication of implied regional impacts associated with global targets for CO2 emissions. However, the regional responses are very varied and display strong differences in regional temperature and hydrological sensitivity. Process-based based analyses explain these divergences and highlight avenues for reducing uncertainties in regional projections of extremes, in particular related to the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks. These results have important implications for the design of regional mitigation and climate adaptation policies, for instance related to land use changes. Reference: Seneviratne, S.I., M.G. Donat, A.J. Pitman, R. Knutti, and R. Wilby, 2016, Nature, 529, 477-483, doi:10.1038/nature16542

  18. Microalgal technology for remediation of CO{sub 2} from power plant flue gas: A technoeconomic perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kadam, K.L.; Sheehan, J.J. [National Renewable Energy Lab., Golden, CO (United States). Biotechnology Center for Fuels and Chemicals

    1996-12-01

    Power plants burning fossil fuels are a major source of CO{sub 2}, which is implicated in global warming. Microalgal systems, which photosynthetically assimilate CO{sub 2}, can be used to mitigate this major greenhouse gas. A technoeconomic model was developed for trapping CO{sub 2} from flue gases by microalgae in outdoor ponds. The model allows the authors to make some notable observations about the microalgal process. For example, although it was known that the delivered CO{sub 2} cost is an important parameter, this model demonstrates in quantitative terms that the targeted improvements for productivity and lipid content double the relative impact of CO{sub 2} resource cost on total annualized cost of the technology. The model also shows that both algal lipid content and growth rate are important for an economical process, but a trade-off exists between the two, i.e., a high lipid content and low growth rate combination can be as effective as a low lipid content and high growth rate combination. Model predictions were also used to compare the microalgal technology with alternative technologies in terms of CO{sub 2} mitigation costs. The mid-term process, which can be implemented in the near future, is competitive with other CO{sub 2} remediation technologies currently being proposed. Incorporating anticipated advances into the design basis, a CO{sub 2} mitigation cost of $30/t (CO{sub 2} avoided basis) is obtained for the long-term process, which is very promising. Deployment of this technology for CO{sub 2} mitigation looks attractive if research goals put forth by the model are achieved.

  19. Silk industry and carbon footprint mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giacomin, A. M.; Garcia, J. B., Jr.; Zonatti, W. F.; Silva-Santos, M. C.; Laktim, M. C.; Baruque-Ramos, J.

    2017-10-01

    Currently there is a concern with issues related to sustainability and more conscious consumption habits. The carbon footprint measures the total amount of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions produced directly and indirectly by human activities and is usually expressed in tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2) equivalents. The present study takes into account data collected in scientific literature regarding the carbon footprint, garments produced with silk fiber and the role of mulberry as a CO2 mitigation tool. There is an indication of a positive correlation between silk garments and carbon footprint mitigation when computed the cultivation of mulberry trees in this calculation. A field of them mitigates CO2 equivalents in a proportion of 735 times the weight of the produced silk fiber by the mulberry cultivated area. At the same time, additional researches are needed in order to identify and evaluate methods to advertise this positive correlation in order to contribute to a more sustainable fashion industry.

  20. Impact of CO2 on the Evolution of Microbial Communities Exposed to Carbon Storage Conditions, Enhanced Oil Recovery, and CO2 Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gulliver, Djuna [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, (United States); Gregory, Kelvin B. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States); Lowry, Gregorgy V. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2016-06-20

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a crucial part of a proposed mitigation strategy to reduce the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. During this process, CO2 is injected as super critical carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) in confined deep subsurface storage units, such as saline aquifers and depleted oil reservoirs. The deposition of vast amounts of CO2 in subsurface geologic formations could unintentionally lead to CO2 leakage into overlying freshwater aquifers. Introduction of CO2 into these subsurface environments will greatly increase the CO22 concentration and will create CO2 concentration gradients that drive changes in the microbial communities present. While it is expected that altered microbial communities will impact the biogeochemistry of the subsurface, there is no information available on how CO2 gradients will impact these communities. The overarching goal of this project is to understand how CO2 exposure will impact subsurface microbial communities at temperatures and pressures that are relevant to GCS and CO2 leakage scenarios. To meet this goal, unfiltered, aqueous samples from a deep saline aquifer, a depleted oil reservoir, and a fresh water aquifer were exposed to varied concentrations of CO2 at reservoir pressure and temperature. The microbial ecology of the samples was examined using molecular, DNA-based techniques. The results from these studies were also compared across the sites to determine any existing trends. Results reveal that increasing CO2 leads to decreased DNA concentrations regardless of the site, suggesting that microbial processes will be significantly hindered or absent nearest the CO2 injection/leakage plume where CO2 concentrations are highest. At CO2 exposures expected downgradient from the CO2 plume, selected microorganisms

  1. Impact of CO2 on the Evolution of Microbial Communities Exposed to Carbon Storage Conditions, Enhanced Oil Recovery, and CO2 Leakage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gulliver, Djuna M. [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, (United States); Gregory, Kelvin B. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; Lowry, Gregory V. [Carnegie Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States). Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

    2016-06-20

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a crucial part of a proposed mitigation strategy to reduce the anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to the atmosphere. During this process, CO2 is injected as super critical carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) in confined deep subsurface storage units, such as saline aquifers and depleted oil reservoirs. The deposition of vast amounts of CO2 in subsurface geologic formations could unintentionally lead to CO2 leakage into overlying freshwater aquifers. Introduction of CO2 into these subsurface environments will greatly increase the CO2 concentration and will create CO2 concentration gradients that drive changes in the microbial communities present. While it is expected that altered microbial communities will impact the biogeochemistry of the subsurface, there is no information available on how CO2 gradients will impact these communities. The overarching goal of this project is to understand how CO2 exposure will impact subsurface microbial communities at temperatures and pressures that are relevant to GCS and CO2 leakage scenarios. To meet this goal, unfiltered, aqueous samples from a deep saline aquifer, a depleted oil reservoir, and a fresh water aquifer were exposed to varied concentrations of CO2 at reservoir pressure and temperature. The microbial ecology of the samples was examined using molecular, DNA-based techniques. The results from these studies were also compared across the sites to determine any existing trends. Results reveal that increasing CO2 leads to decreased DNA concentrations regardless of the site, suggesting that microbial processes will be significantly hindered or absent nearest the CO2 injection/leakage plume where CO2 concentrations are highest. At CO2 exposures expected downgradient from the CO2 plume, selected microorganisms

  2. Integrated Energy System with Beneficial Carbon Dioxide (CO{sub 2}) Use

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Xiaolei; Rink, Nancy

    2011-04-30

    To address the public concerns regarding the consequences of climate change from anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions, the U.S. Department of Energy National Energy Technology Laboratory (DOE-NETL) is actively funding a CO{sub 2} management program to develop technologies capable of reducing the CO{sub 2} emissions from fossil fuel power plants and other industrial facilities. Over the past decade, this program has focused on reducing the costs of carbon capture and storage technologies. Recently, DOE-NETL launched an alternative CO{sub 2} mitigation program focusing on beneficial CO{sub 2} reuse and supporting the development of technologies that mitigate emissions by converting CO{sub 2} to solid mineral form that can be utilized for enhanced oil recovery, in the manufacturing of concrete or as a benign landfill, in the production of valuable chemicals and/or fuels. This project was selected as a CO{sub 2} reuse activity which would conduct research and development (R&D) at the pilot scale via a cost-shared Cooperative Agreement number DE-FE0001099 with DOE-NETL and would utilize funds setaside by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) of 2009 for Industrial Carbon Capture and Sequestration R&D,

  3. Symbiodinium mitigate the combined effects of hypoxia and acidification on a noncalcifying cnidarian

    KAUST Repository

    Klein, Shannon G.

    2017-04-08

    Anthropogenic nutrient inputs enhance microbial respiration within many coastal ecosystems, driving concurrent hypoxia and acidification. During photosynthesis, Symbiodinium spp., the microalgal endosymbionts of cnidarians and other marine phyla, produce O and assimilate CO and thus potentially mitigate the exposure of the host to these stresses. However, such a role for Symbiodinium remains untested for noncalcifying cnidarians. We therefore contrasted the fitness of symbiotic and aposymbiotic polyps of a model host jellyfish (Cassiopea sp.) under reduced O (~2.09 mg/L) and pH (~ 7.63) scenarios in a full-factorial experiment. Host fitness was characterized as asexual reproduction and their ability to regulate internal pH and Symbiodinium performance characterized by maximum photochemical efficiency, chla content and cell density. Acidification alone resulted in 58% more asexual reproduction of symbiotic polyps than aposymbiotic polyps (and enhanced Symbiodinium cell density) suggesting Cassiopea sp. fitness was enhanced by CO-stimulated Symbiodinium photosynthetic activity. Indeed, greater CO drawdown (elevated pH) was observed within host tissues of symbiotic polyps under acidification regardless of O conditions. Hypoxia alone produced 22% fewer polyps than ambient conditions regardless of acidification and symbiont status, suggesting Symbiodinium photosynthetic activity did not mitigate its effects. Combined hypoxia and acidification, however, produced similar numbers of symbiotic polyps compared with aposymbiotic kept under ambient conditions, demonstrating that the presence of Symbiodinium was key for mitigating the combined effects of hypoxia and acidification on asexual reproduction. We hypothesize that this mitigation occurred because of reduced photorespiration under elevated CO conditions where increased net O production ameliorates oxygen debt. We show that Symbiodinium play an important role in facilitating enhanced fitness of Cassiopea sp. polyps, and

  4. Nuclear power and its role in limiting CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suparman

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to analyze the proper role of nuclear power in the long term energy planning by comparing different type of scenarios in terms of CO2 emission reduction, based on the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario. For this purpose, a MESSAGE (Model of Energy Supply Systems and their General Environmental impacts) was used to develop energy planning as well as CO2 emission projection. A sensitivity analysis for CO2 reduction rates of 2.%, 3%, 4% and 5% have been done. From this sensitivity analysis, it can be concluded that nuclear will be a part of optimum solution under CO2 limitation of at least 3% from BAU condition. The more the environmental standards are tightened and enforced the more and the earlier nuclear power becomes part of the optimum generation mix. (author)

  5. Emissions from international shipping. Pt. 2: Impact of future technologies - scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eyring, V.; Lauer, A.; Lemper, B.

    2004-01-01

    We use the today's fleet-average emission factors of the most important ship exhausts to calculate emission scenarios for the future. To develop plausible future scenarios we first discuss upcoming regulations and compliance with future regulations through technological improvements. We present geographically resolved emission inventory forecast scenarios for the years 2020 and 2050. The scenarios are based on some very strict assumptions of future ship traffic demand and technological improvements. The future ship traffic demand scenario is mainly determined by the economic growth and the growth in world seaborne trade and distinguishes between different ship types. The annual growth rates of sea trade volumes and expected vessel traffic density is assumed to be smaller for today's most frequently sailed routes (in particular east-west-trades) than for those that are currently less frequently sailed (in particular south-north-trades). This leads to an adjustment of the number of ships sailing the different shipping routes in 2020 and even stronger in 2050. For the future technology scenarios we assume a diesel-only fleet in 2020 resulting in an estimated fuel consumption of 422 million metric tons (Mt) and 1226 Tg CO 2 emissions. For 2050 one scenario for fuel consumption assumes that 25% of the fuel consumed by a diesel-only fleet can be saved by using future alternative propulsion plants, resulting in a fuel consumption of 422 Mt and 1339 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. The other scenario is a business-as-usual scenario for a diesel-only fleet even in 2050 and gives an estimate of 646 Mt and 1783 Tg CO 2 emissions in 2050. Dependent on how rapid technology improvements for diesel engines are introduced we present four different technology scenarios. (orig.)

  6. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO2 price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves; Pierru, Axel

    2010-01-01

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO 2 emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO 2 price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO 2 policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO 2 emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO 2 emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO 2 emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

  7. Multicell Cooperation for LTE-Advanced Heterogeneous Network Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Soret, Beatriz; Wang, Hua; Rosa, Claudio

    2013-01-01

    In this article we present two promising practical use cases for simple multicell cooperation for LTE-Advanced heterogeneous network (HetNet) scenarios with macro and small cells. For co-channel deployment cases, we recommend the use of enhanced inter-cell interference coordination (e......ICIC) to mitigate cross-tier interference and ensure sufficient offload of users from macro to small cells. It is shown how the eICIC benefit is maximized by using a distributed inter-base station control framework for dynamic adjustment of essential parameters. Secondly, for scenarios where macro and small cells...... are deployed at different carriers an efficient use of the fragmented spectrum can be achieved by using collaborative inter-site carrier aggregation. In addition to distributed coordination/collaboration between base station nodes, the importance of explicit terminal assistance is highlighted. Comprehensive...

  8. CO2 emissions and economic development: China's 12th five-year plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meng Ming; Niu Dongxiao; Shang Wei

    2012-01-01

    For the period of the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011–2015), the Chinese government has decided to reconsider and adjust its policies on economic development because of the pressures of CO 2 emissions and fossil energy consumption. The current paper adopts the logarithmic Stochastic Impacts by Regression on Population, Affluence, and Technology (STIRPAT) model to simulate the relationship between CO 2 emissions and other economic development factors in China. Three groups of outliers are found using samples from 1989 to 2008 and the Partial Least Square (PLS) regularity test method. The outlier analysis reveals three important areas for CO 2 reduction: (a) decreasing the share of coal to the total energy consumption and replacing it with non-fossil energies; (b) controlling vehicles used in the cities as well as (c) adjusting industrial structure. Furthermore, based on the social and economic realities of China, the current paper designs six feasible development scenarios for the period covered by the 12th Five-Year Plan and predicts the values of each factor in each scenario. The values can test the implementation of China's CO 2 control development concept. The experiences obtained by outlier analysis can be of significant reference value for realizing the predicted scenarios. - Highlights: ► Using STIRPAT to analyze China's CO 2 emissions and economic development factors. ► Using the PLS outlier test method, three groups of outliers are found. ► Outlier analysis reveals three important areas on reducing CO 2 emissions. ► We design six feasible scenarios for the period covered by the 12th Five-Year Plan. ► We predict the values of each factor in each scenario.

  9. What does CO2 geological storage really mean?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-01-01

    It is now accepted that human activities are disturbing the carbon cycle of the planet. CO 2 , a greenhouse gas, has accumulated in the atmosphere where it contributes to climate change. Amongst the spectrum of short term measures that need to be urgently implemented to mitigate climate change, CO 2 capture and storage can play a decisive role as it could contribute 33% of the CO 2 reduction needed by 2050. This document aims to explain this solution by answering the following questions: where and how much CO 2 can we store underground, How can we transport and inject large quantities of CO 2 , What happens to the CO 2 once in the storage reservoir? Could CO 2 leak from the reservoir and if so, what might be the consequences? How can we monitor the storage site at depth and at the surface? What safety criteria need to be imposed and respected? (A.L.B.)

  10. Modeling of CO2 storage in aquifers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Savioli, Gabriela B; Santos, Juan E

    2011-01-01

    Storage of CO 2 in geological formations is a means of mitigating the greenhouse effect. Saline aquifers are a good alternative as storage sites due to their large volume and their common occurrence in nature. The first commercial CO 2 injection project is that of the Sleipner field in the Utsira Sand aquifer (North Sea). Nevertheless, very little was known about the effectiveness of CO 2 sequestration over very long periods of time. In this way, numerical modeling of CO 2 injection and seismic monitoring is an important tool to understand the behavior of CO 2 after injection and to make long term predictions in order to prevent CO 2 leaks from the storage into the atmosphere. The description of CO 2 injection into subsurface formations requires an accurate fluid-flow model. To simulate the simultaneous flow of brine and CO 2 we apply the Black-Oil formulation for two phase flow in porous media, which uses the PVT data as a simplified thermodynamic model. Seismic monitoring is modeled using Biot's equations of motion describing wave propagation in fluid-saturated poroviscoelastic solids. Numerical examples of CO 2 injection and time-lapse seismics using data of the Utsira formation show the capability of this methodology to monitor the migration and dispersal of CO 2 after injection.

  11. Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

    2015-08-01

    Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

  12. A breakthrough in flue gas cleanup, CO2 mitigation and H2S removal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koch, Wolf; Wasas, James; Stenger, Raymond; Howell, Evan

    2010-09-15

    SWAPSOL Corp. is developing commercial processes around a newly discovered reaction that reduces H2S below detectable levels while reacting with CO2 to form water, sulfur and carsuls, a carbon-sulfur polymer. The Stenger-Wasas Process (SWAP) stands to simplify sulfur removal technology as it consumes CO2 in an exothermic reaction. The SWAP has applications in landfill, sour, flue and Claus tail gas cleanup and may replace Claus technology. Destruction of waste hydrocarbons provides a source of H2S. The primary reactions and variants have been independently verified and the chemical kinetics determined by a third party laboratory.

  13. The potential contribution to climate change mitigation from temporary carbon storage in biomaterials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Susanne Vedel; Hauschild, Michael Zwicky; Nielsen, Per H.

    2015-01-01

    of biomaterials.The recently developed approach for quantifying the climate tipping potential (CTP) of emissions is used, with some adaption, to account for the value of temporary carbon storage. CTP values for short-, medium- and long-term carbon storage in chosen biomaterials are calculated for two possible...... future atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration development scenarios. The potential magnitude of the temporary carbon storage in biomaterials is estimated by considering the global polymer production being biobased in the future.Both sets of CTP values show the same trend; storage which releases...... contributes with negative CTP values, which means mitigation. The longer the duration of the storage, the larger the mitigation potential.Temporary carbon storage in biomaterials has a potential for contributing to avoid or postpone the crossing of a climatic target level of 450 ppm CO2e, depending on GHG...

  14. Mitigating the environmental impacts of milk production via anaerobic digestion of manure: case study of a dairy farm in the Po Valley.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battini, F; Agostini, A; Boulamanti, A K; Giuntoli, J; Amaducci, S

    2014-05-15

    This work analyzes the environmental impacts of milk production in an intensive dairy farm situated in the Northern Italy region of the Po Valley. Three manure management scenarios are compared: in Scenario 1 the animal slurry is stored in an open tank and then used as fertilizer. In scenario 2 the manure is processed in an anaerobic digestion plant and the biogas produced is combusted in an internal combustion engine to produce heat (required by the digester) and electricity (exported). Scenario 3 is similar to scenario 2 but the digestate is stored in a gas-tight tank. In scenario 1 the GHG emissions are estimated to be equal to 1.21 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) Fat and Protein Corrected Milk (FPCM) without allocation of the environmental burden to the by-product meat. With mass allocation, the GHG emissions associated to the milk are reduced to 1.18 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. Using an economic allocation approach the GHG emissions allocated to the milk are 1.13 kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. In scenarios 2 and 3, without allocation, the GHG emissions are reduced respectively to 0.92 (-23.7%) and 0.77 (-36.5%) kg CO2 eq.kg(-1) FPCM. If land use change due to soybean production is accounted for, an additional emission of 0.53 kg CO2 eq. should be added, raising the GHG emissions to 1.74, 1.45 and 1.30 kg CO2 eq kg(-1) FPCM in scenarios 1, 2 and 3, respectively. Primary energy from non-renewable resources decreases by 36.2% and 40.6% in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively, with the valorization of the manure in the biogas plant. The other environmental impact mitigated is marine eutrophication that decreases by 8.1% in both scenarios 2 and 3, mostly because of the lower field emissions. There is, however, a trade-off between non-renewable energy and GHG savings and other environmental impacts: acidification (+6.1% and +5.5% in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively), particulate matter emissions (+1.4% and +0.7%) and photochemical ozone formation potential (+41.6% and +42.3%) increase with the

  15. CoSMOS: Performance of Kurtosis Algorithm for Radio Frequency Interference Detection and Mitigation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Misra, Sidharth; Kristensen, Steen Savstrup; Skou, Niels

    2007-01-01

    The performance of a previously developed algorithm for Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) detection and mitigation is experimentally evaluated. Results obtained from CoSMOS, an airborne campaign using a fully polarimetric L-band radiometer are analyzed for this purpose. Data is collected using two...

  16. Carbonation and CO2 uptake of concrete

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Keun-Hyeok; Seo, Eun-A; Tae, Sung-Ho

    2014-01-01

    This study developed a reliable procedure to assess the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) uptake of concrete by carbonation during the service life of a structure and by the recycling of concrete after demolition. To generalize the amount of absorbable CO 2 per unit volume of concrete, the molar concentration of carbonatable constituents in hardened cement paste was simplified as a function of the unit content of cement, and the degree of hydration of the cement paste was formulated as a function of the water-to-cement ratio. The contribution of the relative humidity, type of finishing material for the concrete surface, and the substitution level of supplementary cementitious materials to the CO 2 diffusion coefficient in concrete was reflected using various correction factors. The following parameters varying with the recycling scenario were also considered: the carbonatable surface area of concrete crusher-runs and underground phenomena of the decreased CO 2 diffusion coefficient and increased CO 2 concentration. Based on the developed procedure, a case study was conducted for an apartment building with a principal wall system and an office building with a Rahmen system, with the aim of examining the CO 2 uptake of each structural element under different exposure environments during the service life and recycling of the building. As input data necessary for the case study, data collected from actual surveys conducted in 2012 in South Korea were used, which included data on the surrounding environments, lifecycle inventory database, life expectancy of structures, and recycling activity scenario. Ultimately, the CO 2 uptake of concrete during a 100-year lifecycle (life expectancy of 40 years and recycling span of 60 years) was estimated to be 15.5%–17% of the CO 2 emissions from concrete production, which roughly corresponds to 18%–21% of the CO 2 emissions from the production of ordinary Portland cement. - Highlights: • CO 2 uptake assessment approach owing to the

  17. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  18. Revisiting CO2 mitigation potential and costs in China's electricity sector

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cai Wenjia; Wang Can; Chen Jining

    2010-01-01

    To improve the reliability of sectoral mitigation potential and cost analysis, this paper made an in-depth exploration into China's electricity sector's thermal efficiency and inner structure. It is found that unlike what many literatures portray, China is actually among the world's leaders in coal-fired power plants' generating efficiencies; besides, although there are still numerous small and inefficient generating units in the current generation fleet, many of them are in fact playing important roles in supporting local economic development, meeting peak load needs, balancing heat and electricity supply and providing job opportunities to the local economy, therefore their existence does not necessarily mean low-cost mitigation potential. Given the efficiency and structural characteristics of China's electricity sector, it is pointed out that some other mitigation options, such as demand side management, IGCC and renewable energy as well as the break-through of CCS technology may play an even more important role in emission reduction. Considering the significant lock-in effects in electricity sector, it is warned that China, if continues putting majority investment in large and advanced coal-fired generating units, will face another round of chasing-after for the new and advanced renewable generation technologies. Therefore China should put more efforts in renewable generation technologies now.

  19. BECCS capability of dedicated bioenergy crops under a future land-use scenario targeting net negative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kato, E.; Yamagata, Y.

    2014-12-01

    Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is a key component of mitigation strategies in future socio-economic scenarios that aim to keep mean global temperature rise below 2°C above pre-industrial, which would require net negative carbon emissions in the end of the 21st century. Because of the additional need for land, developing sustainable low-carbon scenarios requires careful consideration of the land-use implications of deploying large-scale BECCS. We evaluated the feasibility of the large-scale BECCS in RCP2.6, which is a scenario with net negative emissions aiming to keep the 2°C temperature target, with a top-down analysis of required yields and a bottom-up evaluation of BECCS potential using a process-based global crop model. Land-use change carbon emissions related to the land expansion were examined using a global terrestrial biogeochemical cycle model. Our analysis reveals that first-generation bioenergy crops would not meet the required BECCS of the RCP2.6 scenario even with a high fertilizer and irrigation application. Using second-generation bioenergy crops can marginally fulfill the required BECCS only if a technology of full post-process combustion CO2 capture is deployed with a high fertilizer application in the crop production. If such an assumed technological improvement does not occur in the future, more than doubling the area for bioenergy production for BECCS around 2050 assumed in RCP2.6 would be required, however, such scenarios implicitly induce large-scale land-use changes that would cancel half of the assumed CO2 sequestration by BECCS. Otherwise a conflict of land-use with food production is inevitable.

  20. Mitigation of global warming through renewable biomass

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhillon, R.S.; Wuehlisch, George von

    2013-01-01

    Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. Global surface temperature have already increased by 0.8 °C over the 20th century and is projected to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during the twenty-first century. The global warming will continue till atmospheric concentrations of the major greenhouse gases are stabilized. Among them, CO 2 is mainly responsible and is expected to account for about 60% of the warming over the next century. This study reviews advances on causes and consequences of global climate change and its impact on nature and society. Renewable biomass has tremendous potential to mitigate the global warming. Renewable biomass is expected to play a multifunctional role including food production, source of energy and fodder, biodiversity conservation, yield of goods and services to the society as well as mitigation of the impact of climate change. The review highlights the different management and research strategies in forestry, agriculture, agroforestry and grasslands to mitigate the global warming. -- Highlights: ► Rising level of atmospheric CO 2 and consequent global warming is evident. ► CO 2 is mainly responsible for global warming. ► Global temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8 °C during 21st century. ► Renewable biomass has great potential to mitigate the global warming

  1. Energy development and CO2 emissions in China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xi, Xiaolin [Carnegie-Mellon Univ., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    1993-03-01

    The objective of this research is to provide a better understanding of future Chinese energy development and CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. This study examines the current Chinese energy system, estimates CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels and projects future energy use and resulting CO2 emissions up to the year of 2050. Based on the results of the study, development strategies are proposed and policy implications are explored. This study first develops a Base scenario projection of the Chinese energy development based upon a sectoral analysis. The Base scenario represents a likely situation of future development, but many alternatives are possible. To explore this range of alternatives, a systematic uncertainty analysis is performed. The Base scenario also represents an extrapolation of current policies and social and economic trends. As such, it is not necessarily the economically optimal future course for Chinese energy development. To explore this issue, an optimization analysis is performed. For further understanding of developing Chinese energy system and reducing CO2 emissions, a Chinese energy system model with 84 supply and demand technologies has been constructed in MARKAL, a computer LP optimization program for energy systems. Using this model, various technological options and economic aspects of energy development and CO2 emissions reduction in China during the 1985-2020 period are examined.

  2. Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

    2014-05-01

    Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

  3. Greenhouse gas mitigation potential of biomass energy technologies in Vietnam using the long range energy alternative planning system model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kumar, Amit; Bhattacharya, S.C.; Pham, H.L.

    2003-01-01

    The greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials of number of selected Biomass Energy Technologies (BETs) have been assessed in Vietnam. These include Biomass Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (BIGCC) based on wood and bagasse, direct combustion plants based on wood, co-firing power plants and Stirling engine based on wood and cooking stoves. Using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model, different scenarios were considered, namely the base case with no mitigation options, replacement of kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by biogas stove, substitution of gasoline by ethanol in transport sector, replacement of coal by wood as fuel in industrial boilers, electricity generation with biomass energy technologies and an integrated scenario including all the options together. Substitution of coal stoves by biogas stove has positive abatement cost, as the cost of wood in Vietnam is higher than coal. Replacement of kerosene and LPG cookstoves by biomass stove also has a positive abatement cost. Replacement of gasoline by ethanol can be realized after a few years, as at present the cost of ethanol is more than the cost of gasoline. The replacement of coal by biomass in industrial boiler is also not an attractive option as wood is more expensive than coal in Vietnam. The substitution of fossil fuel fired plants by packages of BETs has a negative abatement cost. This option, if implemented, would result in mitigation of 10.83 million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in 2010

  4. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  5. Foamed Cement Interactions with CO2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Verba, Circe [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Albany, OR (United States); Montross, Scott [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Albany, OR (United States); Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Spaulding, Richard [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, (United States); Dalton, Laura [Oak Ridge Inst. for Science and Education (ORISE), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); Crandall, Dustin [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); Moore, Johnathan [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Morgantown, WV (United States); Glosser, Deborah [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, (United States); Huerta, Nik [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Albany, OR (United States); Kutchko, Barb [National Energy Technology Lab. (NETL), Pittsburgh, PA, (United States)

    2017-02-02

    Geologic carbon storage (GCS) is a potentially viable strategy to reduce greenhouse emissions. Understanding the risks to engineered and geologic structures associated with GCS is an important first step towards developing practices for safe and effective storage. The widespread utilization of foamed cement in wells may mean that carbon dioxide (CO2)/brine/foamed cement reactions may occur within these GCS sites. Characterizing the difference in alteration rates as well as the physical and mechanical impact of CO2/brine/foamed cement is an important preliminary step to ensuring offshore and onshore GCS is a prudent anthropogenic CO2 mitigation choice.

  6. A cost effective CO2 strategy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    , a scenario-part and a cost-benefit part. Air and sea modes are not analyzed. The model adopts a bottom-up approach to allow a detailed assessment of transport policy measures. Four generic areas of intervention were identified and the likely effect on CO2 emissions, socioeconomic efficiency and other...... are evaluated according to CO2 reduction potential and according to the ‘shadow price’ on a reduction of one ton CO2. The shadow price reflects the costs (and benefits) of the different measures. Comparing the measures it is possible to identify cost effective measures, but these measures are not necessarily...... by the Ministry of Transport, with the Technical University of Denmark as one of the main contributors. The CO2-strategy was to be based on the principle of cost-effectiveness. A model was set up to assist in the assessment. The model consists of a projection of CO2-emissions from road and rail modes from 2020...

  7. Dietary changes to mitigate climate change and benefit public health in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Guobao; Li, Mingjing; Fullana-I-Palmer, Pere; Williamson, Duncan; Wang, Yixuan

    2017-01-15

    Dietary change presents an opportunity to meet the dual challenges of non-communicable diseases and the effects of climate change in China. Based on a food survey and reviewed data sets, we linked nutrient composition and carbon footprint data by aggregating 1950 types of foods into 28 groups. Nine dietary scenarios for both men and women were modeled based on the current diet and latest National Program for Food and Nutrition. Linear uncertainty optimization was used to produce diets meeting the Chinese Dietary Reference Intakes for adults aged 18-50years while minimizing carbon footprints. The theoretical optimal diet reduced daily footprints by 46%, but this diet was unrealistic due to limited food diversity. Constrained by acceptability, the optimal diet reduced the daily carbon footprints by 7-28%, from 3495 to 2517-3252g CO 2 e, for men and by 5-26%, from 3075 to 2280-2917g CO 2 e, for women. Dietary changes for adults are capable of benefiting China in terms of the considerable footprint reduction of 53-222Mt.CO 2 eyear -1 , when magnified based on the Chinese population, which is the largest worldwide. Seven of eight scenarios showed that reductions in meat consumption resulted in greater reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. However, dramatic reductions in meat consumption may produce smaller reductions in emissions, as the consumption of other ingredients increases to compensate for the nutrients in meat. A trade-off between poultry and other meats (beef, pork, and lamb) is usually observed, and rice, which is a popular food in China, was the largest contributor to carbon footprint reductions. Our findings suggest that changing diets for climate change mitigation and human health is possible in China, though the per capital mitigation potential is slight lower than that in developed economies of France, Spain, Sweden, and New Zealand. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Estimating future energy use and CO2 emissions of the world's cities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Singh, Shweta; Kennedy, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops a tool for estimating energy-related CO 2 emissions from the world's cities based on regression models. The models are developed considering climatic (heating-degree-days) and urban design (land area per person) independent variables. The tool is applied on 3646 urban areas for estimating impacts on urban emissions of a) global transitioning to Electric Vehicles, b) urban density change and c) IPCC climate change scenarios. Results show that urban density decline can lead to significant increase in energy emissions (upto 346% in electricity & 428% in transportation at 2% density decline by 2050). Among the IPCC climate scenarios tested, A1B is the most effective in reducing growth of emissions (upto 12% in electricity & 35% in heating). The tool can further be improved by including more data in the regression models along with inclusion of other relevant emissions and climatic variables. - Highlights: • A tool for estimation of energy related emissions for urban areas is developed. • Heating degree days and urbanized area per capita are driving variables for urban energy consumption. • Global transition to EVs can only mitigate transportation emissions if GHG intensity of electricity grid is reduced. • Density decline of urban areas can lead to exponential increase of energy related emissions. • Climate change scenarios can slightly reduce the growth of energy related emissions increase by 2050. - A tool for estimation of global impact of urban systems on energy related emissions was developed that can simulate the impact of future scenarios (climate change, urban design etc)

  9. Comprehensive, Quantitative Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Geologic Sequestration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lepinski, James

    2013-09-30

    A Quantitative Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (QFMEA) was developed to conduct comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments on CO{sub 2} capture, transportation, and sequestration or use in deep saline aquifers, enhanced oil recovery operations, or enhanced coal bed methane operations. The model identifies and characterizes potential risks; identifies the likely failure modes, causes, effects and methods of detection; lists possible risk prevention and risk mitigation steps; estimates potential damage recovery costs, mitigation costs and costs savings resulting from mitigation; and ranks (prioritizes) risks according to the probability of failure, the severity of failure, the difficulty of early failure detection and the potential for fatalities. The QFMEA model generates the necessary information needed for effective project risk management. Diverse project information can be integrated into a concise, common format that allows comprehensive, quantitative analysis, by a cross-functional team of experts, to determine: What can possibly go wrong? How much will damage recovery cost? How can it be prevented or mitigated? What is the cost savings or benefit of prevention or mitigation? Which risks should be given highest priority for resolution? The QFMEA model can be tailored to specific projects and is applicable to new projects as well as mature projects. The model can be revised and updated as new information comes available. It accepts input from multiple sources, such as literature searches, site characterization, field data, computer simulations, analogues, process influence diagrams, probability density functions, financial analysis models, cost factors, and heuristic best practices manuals, and converts the information into a standardized format in an Excel spreadsheet. Process influence diagrams, geologic models, financial models, cost factors and an insurance schedule were developed to support the QFMEA model. Comprehensive, quantitative risk assessments

  10. Geological storage of CO2 : Mechanical and chemical effects on host and seal formations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hangx, Suzanne

    2009-01-01

    The socio-economic impact of global warming resulting from anthropogenic CO2 emissions has lead to much attention for carbon mitigation strategies in recent years. One of the most promising ways of disposing of CO2 is through Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), entailing CO2 capture at source,

  11. Energy scenarios for the nordic region towards 2035

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fidje, Audun

    2008-07-01

    This report summarizes the assumptions, methodology and main results of the MARKAL analysis of options for a sustainable energy future in the Nordic region. The work is based on the Nordic MARKAL model, which has been modified such that it may be used to analyse a large number of scenarios, typically 500 to 5000. The scenarios are developed by analysis a set of strategies and uncertainties. All these strategies and uncertainties are combined such that we generate in total 1 152 scenarios. The main purpose of generating a large number of scenarios was to facilitate for multi-criteria trade-off analysis. Overall results from this analysis show that large reductions of CO{sub 2} emissions are possible at CO{sub 2} cost below 50 EUR/t CO{sub 2} (author)

  12. Particle Reduction Strategies - PAREST. Energy scenarios for PAREST. Sub-report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Joerss, Wolfram; Degel, Melanie

    2013-01-01

    In the research project PAREST emission scenarios to 2020 for particulate matter (PM 10 und PM 2,5 ), and aerosol precursors SO 2 , NO x , NH 3 and NMVOC were prepared for Germany and Europe, mitigation measures evaluated and the results used to model the PM pollution load for Germany. In this part of the report to PAREST energy scenarios used for PAREST are presented. [de

  13. Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Benjamin D.; Roth, Raphael; Joos, Fortunat; Spahni, Renato; Steinacher, Marco; Zaehle, Soenke; Bouwman, Lex; Xu-Ri; Prentice, Iain Colin

    2013-07-01

    Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4-0.5°C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8-1.0°C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22-27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

  14. Evasion of CO{sub 2} injected into the ocean in the content of CO{sub 2} stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kheshgi, H.S. [ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Co., Annandale, NJ (United States)

    2004-08-01

    The eventual evasion of injected CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere is one consideration when assessing deep-sea disposal of CO{sub 2} as a potential response option to climate change concerns. Evasion estimated using an ocean carbon cycle model is compared to long-term trajectories for future CO{sub 2} emissions, including illustrative cases leading to stabilization of CO{sub 2} concentration at various levels. Modeled residence time for CO{sub 2} injected into the deep ocean exceeds the 100-year time-scale usually considered in scenarios for future emissions, and the potential impacts of climate change. Illustrative cases leading monotonically to constant CO{sub 2} concentration have been highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to give guidance on possible timing of emission reductions that may be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at various levels. For stabilization cases considered, significant modeled evasion does not occur until long after CO{sub 2} emissions have reached a maximum and begun to decline. Illustrative cases can also lead to a maximum in CO{sub 2} concentration followed by a decline to slowly decreasing concentrations. In such cases, future injection of emissions into the deep ocean leads to lower maximum CO{sub 2} concentration, with less effect on concentration later on in time. (author)

  15. Evasion of CO{sub 2} injected into the ocean in the context of CO{sub 2} stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kheshgi, Haroon S

    2004-08-01

    The eventual evasion of injected CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere is one consideration when assessing deep-sea disposal of CO{sub 2} as a potential response option to climate change concerns. Evasion estimated using an ocean carbon cycle model is compared to long-term trajectories for future CO{sub 2} emissions, including illustrative cases leading to stabilization of CO{sub 2} concentration at various levels. Modeled residence time for CO{sub 2} injected into the deep ocean exceeds the 100-year time-scale usually considered in scenarios for future emissions, and the potential impacts of climate change. Illustrative cases leading monotonically to constant CO{sub 2} concentration have been highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to give guidance on possible timing of emission reductions that may be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at various levels. For stabilization cases considered, significant modeled evasion does not occur until long after CO{sub 2} emissions have reached a maximum and begun to decline. Illustrative cases can also lead to a maximum in CO{sub 2} concentration followed by a decline to slowly decreasing concentrations. In such cases, future injection of emissions into the deep ocean leads to lower maximum CO{sub 2} concentration, with less effect on concentration later on in time.

  16. Forecasting of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koene, Aylin Cigdem; Bueke, Tayfun

    2010-01-01

    emission projections into the future planning. The calculated results for CO 2 emissions from fitted curves have been compared with the projected CO 2 emissions given in International Energy Outlook 2009 of U.S. Department of Energy calculated from ''high economic growth case scenario'', ''reference case scenario'' and ''low economic growth case scenario'' respectively. Agreements between calculated results and the projected CO 2 emissions from different scenarios are in the acceptable range. (author)

  17. Enclathration of CO2 as a co-guest of structure H hydrates and its implications for CO2 capture and sequestration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Yohan; Lee, Dongyoung; Lee, Jong-Won; Seo, Yongwon

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • We examine sH hydrates with CO 2 + N 2 + neohexane for CO 2 capture and sequestration. • The structural transition occurs in the CO 2 (40%) + N 2 (60%) + neohexane system. • CO 2 molecules are enclathrated into sH hydrates in the N 2 -rich systems. • CO 2 selectivity in sH hydrates is slightly lower than that in sI hydrates. • ΔH d values provide information on the structural transition of sH to sI hydrates. - Abstract: In this study, the thermodynamic behaviors, cage-specific guest distributions, structural transition, and dissociation enthalpies of sH hydrates with CO 2 + N 2 gas mixtures were investigated for their potential applications to hydrate-based CO 2 capture and sequestration. The stability conditions of the CO 2 + N 2 + water systems and the CO 2 + N 2 + neohexane (2,2-dimethylbutane, NH) + water systems indicated that the gas mixtures in the range of flue gas compositions could form sH hydrates, thereby mitigating the pressure and temperature required for gas hydrate formation. Structure identification using powder X-ray diffraction (PXRD) revealed the coexistence of sI and sH hydrates in the CO 2 (40%) + N 2 (60%) + NH system and the hydrate structure transformed from sH into sI as the CO 2 concentration increased. In addition, the Raman analysis clearly demonstrated that CO 2 molecules were enclathrated into the cages of sH hydrates in the N 2 -rich systems. It was found from direct CO 2 composition measurements that CO 2 selectivity in the sH hydrate phase was slightly lower than that in the corresponding sI hydrate phase. Dissociation enthalpy (ΔH d ) measurements using a high-pressure micro-differential scanning calorimeter (HP μ-DSC) indicated that the ΔH d values could also provide valuable information on the structural transition of sH to sI hydrates with respect to the CO 2 concentration in the feed gas. This study provides a better understanding of the thermodynamic and physicochemical background for CO 2

  18. Upscaling of enzyme enhanced CO2 capture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gladis, Arne Berthold

    Fossil fuels are the backbone of the energy generation in the coming decades for USA, China, India and Europe, hence high greenhouse gas emissions are expected in future. Carbon capture and storage technology (CCS) is the only technology that can mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel...... the mass transfer of CO2 with slow-capturing but energetically favorable solvents can open up a variety of new process options for this technology. The ubiquitous enzyme carbonic anhydrase (CA), which enhances the mass transfer of CO2 in the lungs by catalyzing the reversible hydration of CO2, is one very...... enhanced CO2 capture technology by identifying the potentials and limitations in lab and in pilot scale and benchmarking the process against proven technologies. The main goal was to derive a realistic process model for technical size absorbers with a wide range of validity incorporating a mechanistic...

  19. CO2-Water-Rock Wettability: Variability, Influencing Factors, and Implications for CO2 Geostorage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iglauer, Stefan

    2017-05-16

    Carbon geosequestration (CGS) has been identified as a key technology to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and thus significantly mitigate climate change. In CGS, CO 2 is captured from large point-source emitters (e.g., coal fired power stations), purified, and injected deep underground into geological formations for disposal. However, the CO 2 has a lower density than the resident formation brine and thus migrates upward due to buoyancy forces. To prevent the CO 2 from leaking back to the surface, four trapping mechanisms are used: (1) structural trapping (where a tight caprock acts as a seal barrier through which the CO 2 cannot percolate), (2) residual trapping (where the CO 2 plume is split into many micrometer-sized bubbles, which are immobilized by capillary forces in the pore network of the rock), (3) dissolution trapping (where CO 2 dissolves in the formation brine and sinks deep into the reservoir due to a slight increase in brine density), and (4) mineral trapping (where the CO 2 introduced into the subsurface chemically reacts with the formation brine or reservoir rock or both to form solid precipitates). The efficiency of these trapping mechanisms and the movement of CO 2 through the rock are strongly influenced by the CO 2 -brine-rock wettability (mainly due to the small capillary-like pores in the rock which form a complex network), and it is thus of key importance to rigorously understand CO 2 -wettability. In this context, a substantial number of experiments have been conducted from which several conclusions can be drawn: of prime importance is the rock surface chemistry, and hydrophilic surfaces are water-wet while hydrophobic surfaces are CO 2 -wet. Note that CO 2 -wet surfaces dramatically reduce CO 2 storage capacities. Furthermore, increasing pressure, salinity, or dissolved ion valency increases CO 2 -wettability, while the effect of temperature is not well understood. Indeed theoretical understanding of CO 2 -wettability and the

  20. Catholyte-Free Electrocatalytic CO2 Reduction to Formate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Wonhee; Kim, Young Eun; Youn, Min Hye; Jeong, Soon Kwan; Park, Ki Tae

    2018-04-16

    Electrochemical reduction of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) into value-added chemicals is a promising strategy to reduce CO 2 emission and mitigate climate change. One of the most serious problems in electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction (CO 2 R) is the low solubility of CO 2 in an aqueous electrolyte, which significantly limits the cathodic reaction rate. This paper proposes a facile method of catholyte-free electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction to avoid the solubility limitation using commercial tin nanoparticles as a cathode catalyst. Interestingly, as the reaction temperature rises from 303 K to 363 K, the partial current density (PCD) of formate improves more than two times with 52.9 mA cm -2 , despite the decrease in CO 2 solubility. Furthermore, a significantly high formate concentration of 41.5 g L -1 is obtained as a one-path product at 343 K with high PCD (51.7 mA cm -2 ) and high Faradaic efficiency (93.3 %) via continuous operation in a full flow cell at a low cell voltage of 2.2 V. © 2018 Wiley-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  1. Geochemical monitoring for potential environmental impacts of geologic sequestration of CO2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharaka, Yousif K.; Cole, David R.; Thordsen, James J.; Gans, Kathleen D.; Thomas, Randal B.

    2013-01-01

    Carbon dioxide sequestration is now considered an important component of the portfolio of options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to stabilize their atmospheric levels at values that would limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century (Pacala and Socolow 2004; IPCC 2005, 2007; Benson and Cook 2005; Benson and Cole 2008; IEA 2012; Romanak et al. 2013). Increased anthropogenic emissions of CO2 have raised its atmospheric concentrations from about 280 ppmv during pre-industrial times to ~400 ppmv today, and based on several defined scenarios, CO2 concentrations are projected to increase to values as high as 1100 ppmv by 2100 (White et al. 2003; IPCC 2005, 2007; EIA 2012; Global CCS Institute 2012). An atmospheric CO2 concentration of 450 ppmv is generally the accepted level that is needed to limit global temperature increases to the target of 2 °C by the end of the century. This temperature limit likely would moderate the adverse effects related to climate change that could include sea-level rise from the melting of alpine glaciers and continental ice sheets and from the ocean warming; increased frequency and intensity of wildfires, floods, droughts, and tropical storms; and changes in the amount, timing, and distribution of rain, snow, and runoff (IPCC 2007; Sundquist et al. 2009; IEA 2012). Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are also increasing the amount of CO2 dissolved in ocean water lowering its pH from 8.1 to 8.0, with potentially disruptive effects on coral reefs, plankton and marine ecosystems (Adams and Caldeira 2008; Schrag 2009; Sundquist et al. 2009). Sedimentary basins in general and deep saline aquifers in particular are being investigated as possible repositories for the large volumes of anthropogenic CO2 that must be sequestered to mitigate global warming and related climate changes (Hitchon 1996; Benson and Cole 2008; Verma and Warwick 2011).

  2. China's carbon mitigation strategies: Enough?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Can; Lin, Jie; Cai, Wenjia; Liao, Hua

    2014-01-01

    As the largest CO 2 emitter in the world, China has made great achievements in carbon mitigation over the past eight years (2005–2013). Through a comprehensive and detailed overview of China's carbon mitigation strategies, this paper presents China's carbon mitigation achievements and strategies, including adjustment to the industrial structure, saving energy, optimizing energy structure, increasing forest carbon sinks, building foundational capacity, innovating technologies and practicing mitigation efforts in localities and sectors. Having been in place for some years already, the results of many of these measures and policies are now plateauing. China is facing challenges including inevitable emissions growth, shrinking of mitigation potential from technological progress, difficulty in further adjusting the industrial structure and economic development mode, continued dominance of coal in the energy mix, local governments’ reluctance to adopt measures to reduce carbon emissions, etc. Through policy diagnosis it is found that the root causes of these problems and challenges are the facts that policy-making is done primarily on the production side and there is an absence of co-benefits in the decision-making process. Therefore, it is recommended that translating mitigation targets to the consumption level and mainstreaming mitigations’ co-benefits into decision-making processes are needed to quickly enhance the results of mitigation work in China. - Highlights: • Key aspects of China's carbon mitigation strategies were outlined. • China's carbon mitigation achievements were summarized. • Challenges to meet further mitigation were investigated. • Strategic suggestions to quickly enhance China's mitigation ambition were given

  3. Interfacial Interactions and Wettability Evaluation of Rock Surfaces for CO2 Storage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shojai Kaveh, N.

    2014-01-01

    To reduce CO2 emissions into the atmosphere, different scenarios are proposed to capture and store carbon dioxide (CO2) in geological formations (CCS). Storage strategies include CO2 injection into deep saline aquifers, depleted gas and oil reservoirs, and unmineable coal seams. To identify a secure

  4. CO/sub 2/ carbon cycle and climate interactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grassl, H; Maier-Reimer, E; Degens, E T; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

    1984-03-01

    Past and expected emissions of anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ stimulate carbon cycle and climate research. Prognoses of future CO/sub 2/ levels depend on energy scenarios and on the reaction of the biosphere and hydrosphere to elevated atmospheric CO/sub 2/ concentrations. The reaction of the reservoirs vegetation, freshwater and oceans to disturbances of the carbon cycle is reviewed. For the oceans first results of a simple carbon cycle model implanted in a three-dimensional general circulation model are presented. This model allows experiments not possible with previous box models.

  5. What does CO{sub 2} geological storage really mean?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2008-07-01

    It is now accepted that human activities are disturbing the carbon cycle of the planet. CO{sub 2}, a greenhouse gas, has accumulated in the atmosphere where it contributes to climate change. Amongst the spectrum of short term measures that need to be urgently implemented to mitigate climate change, CO{sub 2} capture and storage can play a decisive role as it could contribute 33% of the CO{sub 2} reduction needed by 2050. This document aims to explain this solution by answering the following questions: where and how much CO{sub 2} can we store underground, How can we transport and inject large quantities of CO{sub 2}, What happens to the CO{sub 2} once in the storage reservoir? Could CO{sub 2} leak from the reservoir and if so, what might be the consequences? How can we monitor the storage site at depth and at the surface? What safety criteria need to be imposed and respected? (A.L.B.)

  6. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  7. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  8. Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Synergies between mitigation of, and adaptation to, climate change in agriculture

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Smith, P; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2010-01-01

    There is a very significant, cost effective greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential in agriculture. The annual mitigation potential in agriculture is estimated to be 4200, 2600 and 1600 Mt CO2 equiv/yr at C prices of 100, 50 and 20 US$/t CO2 equiv, respectively. The value of GHG mitigated each...... year is equivalent to 420 000, 130 000 and 32 000 million US$/yr for C prices of 100, 50 and 20 US$/t CO2 equiv, respectively. From both the mitigation and economic perspectives, we cannot afford to miss out on this mitigation potential. The challenge of agriculture within the climate change context...... of the agroecosystem in some way. This often not only affects the GHG emissions but also the soil properties and nutrient cycling. Adaptation to increased variability of temperature and rainfall involves increasing the resilience of the production systems. This may be done by improving soil water holding capacities...

  10. Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO2 storage in geological formations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walter, Lena Sophie

    2013-01-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations is one possible option to mitigate the greenhouse gas effect by reducing CO 2 emissions into the atmosphere. The assessment of the risks related to CO 2 storage is an important task. Events such as CO 2 leakage and brine displacement could result in hazards for human health and the environment. In this thesis, a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment concept is presented to investigate various levels of uncertainties and to assess risks using numerical simulations. Depending on the risk and the processes, which should be assessed, very complex models, large model domains, large time scales, and many simulations runs for estimating probabilities are required. To reduce the resulting high computational costs, a model reduction technique (the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion) and a method for model coupling in space are applied. The different levels of uncertainties are: statistical uncertainty in parameter distributions, scenario uncertainty, e.g. different geological features, and recognized ignorance due to assumptions in the conceptual model set-up. Recognized ignorance and scenario uncertainty are investigated by simulating well defined model set-ups and scenarios. According to damage values, which are defined as a model output, the set-ups and scenarios can be compared and ranked. For statistical uncertainty probabilities can be determined by running Monte Carlo simulations with the reduced model. The results are presented in various ways: e.g., mean damage, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, or an overall risk value by multiplying the damage with the probability. If the model output (damage) cannot be compared to provided criteria (e.g. water quality criteria), analytical approximations are presented to translate the damage into comparable values. The overall concept is applied for the risks related to brine displacement and infiltration into drinking water

  11. DEPLETED HYDROCARBON RESERVOIRS AND CO2 INJECTION WELLS –CO2 LEAKAGE ASSESSMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nediljka Gaurina-Međimurec

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Migration risk assessment of the injected CO2 is one of the fi rst and indispensable steps in determining locations for the implementation of projects for carbon dioxide permanent disposal in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs. Within the phase of potential storage characterization and assessment, it is necessary to conduct a quantitative risk assessment, based on dynamic reservoir models that predict the behaviour of the injected CO2, which requires good knowledge of the reservoir conditions. A preliminary risk assessment proposed in this paper can be used to identify risks of CO2 leakage from the injection zone and through wells by quantifying hazard probability (likelihood and severity, in order to establish a risk-mitigation plan and to engage prevention programs. Here, the proposed risk assessment for the injection well is based on a quantitative risk matrix. The proposed assessment for the injection zone is based on methodology used to determine a reservoir probability in exploration and development of oil and gas (Probability of Success, abbr. POS, and modifi ed by taking into account hazards that may lead to CO2 leakage through the cap rock in the atmosphere or groundwater. Such an assessment can eliminate locations that do not meet the basic criteria in regard to short-term and long-term safety and the integrity of the site

  12. Hierarchical saturation of soil carbon pools near a natural CO2 spring

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kool, D.M.; Chung, H.; Tate, K.R.; Ross, D.J.; Newton, P.C.D.; Six, J.

    2007-01-01

    Soil has been identified as a possible carbon (C) sink to mitigate increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, several recent studies have suggested that the potential of soil to sequester C is limited and that soil may become saturated with C under increasing CO2 levels. To test this concept

  13. The future role of reforestation in reducing buildup of atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marland, G.

    1993-01-01

    Among the options posed for mitigating the buildup of atmospheric CO 2 is planting new forest areas to sequester carbon from the atmosphere. Among the questions of interest in modeling the global carbon cycle is the extent to which reforestation is likely to succeed in providing physical removal of CO 2 from the atmosphere. There are many strategies for using forest land to mitigate the atmospheric buildup of CO 2 : decreasing the rate at which forests are cleared for other land uses, increasing the density of carbon storage in existing forests, improving the rate and efficiency at which forest products are used in the place of other energy intensive products, substitution of renewable wood fuels for fossil fuels, improved management of forests and agroforestry, and increasing the amount of land in standing forest. Because increasing the area of forests has social, political, and economic limitations; in addition to physical limitations; it is hard to envision a large increase in forest area except where there are associated economic benefits. The authors speculation is that, over the next several decades, the forest strategies most likely to be pursued for the express purpose of CO 2 mitigation are those which provide more or more-efficient substitution of forest products for energy or energy-intensive resources and that the physical accumulation of additional carbon in forests will be of lesser importance

  14. CO2-mitigation options for the offshore oil and gas sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nguyen, Tuong-Van; Tock, Laurence; Breuhaus, Peter

    2016-01-01

    , using thermodynamic, economic and environmental indicators. The results indicate the benets of all these options, as the total CO2-emissions can be reduced by more than 15% in all cases, while the avoidance costs vary widely and are highly sensitive to the natural gas price and CO2-tax.......-effcient and environmental-friendly solutions, of which three are assessed in this paper: (i) the implementation of waste heat recovery, (ii) the installation of a CO2-capture unit and (iii) the platform electrication. A North Sea platform is taken as casestudy, and these three options are modelled, analysed and compared...

  15. A systematic methodology to extend the applicability of a bioconversion model for the simulation of various co-digestion scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kovalovszki, Adam; Alvarado-Morales, Merlin; Fotidis, Ioannis

    2017-01-01

    Detailed simulation of anaerobic digestion (AD) requires complex mathematical models and the optimization of numerous model parameters. By performing a systematic methodology and identifying parameters with the highest impact on process variables in a well-established AD model, its applicability...... was extended to various co-digestion scenarios. More specifically, the application of the step-by-step methodology led to the estimation of a general and reduced set of parameters, for the simulation of scenarios where either manure or wastewater were co-digested with different organic substrates. Validation...... experimental data quite well, indicating that it offers a reliable reference point for future simulations of anaerobic co-digestion scenarios....

  16. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition: A general equilibrium approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier, E-mail: olivier.durand@uclouvain.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel, E-mail: axel.pierru@ifp.f [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France); Smeers, Yves, E-mail: yves.smeers@uclouvain.ac.b [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium)

    2010-09-15

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a 'hard cap' or a 'soft cap'. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories-with two branches after 2020-for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios.

  17. Uncertain long-run emissions targets, CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition. A general equilibrium approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand-Lasserve, Olivier; Smeers, Yves [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), CORE, Voie du Roman Pays 34, B-1348 Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium); Pierru, Axel [IFP, Economics Department, 232 Avenue Napoleon Bonaparte, 92852 Rueil-Malmaison (France)

    2010-09-15

    The persistent uncertainty about mid-century CO{sub 2} emissions targets is likely to affect not only the technological choices that energy-producing firms will make in the future but also their current investment decisions. We illustrate this effect on CO{sub 2} price and global energy transition within a MERGE-type general-equilibrium model framework, by considering simple stochastic CO{sub 2} policy scenarios. In these scenarios, economic agents know that credible long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets will be set in 2020, with two possible outcomes: either a hard cap or a soft cap. Each scenario is characterized by the relative probabilities of both possible caps. We derive consistent stochastic trajectories - with two branches after 2020 - for prices and quantities of energy commodities and CO{sub 2} emissions permits. The impact of uncertain long-run CO{sub 2} emissions targets on prices and technological trajectories is discussed. In addition, a simple marginal approach allows us to analyze the Hotelling rule with risk premia observed for certain scenarios. (author)

  18. Re-Industrialisation and Low-Carbon Economy—Can They Go Together? Results from Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Energy-Intensive Industries in the German State of North Rhine Westphalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan Lechtenböhmer

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW is home to one of the most important industrial regions in Europe, and is the first German state to have adopted its own Climate Protection Law (CPL. This paper describes the long-term (up to 2050 mitigation scenarios for NRW’s main energy-intensive industrial sub-sectors which served to support the implementation of the CPL. It also describes the process of scenario development, as these scenarios were developed through stakeholder participation. The scenarios considered three different pathways (best-available technologies, break-through technologies, and CO2 capture and storage. All pathways had optimistic assumptions on the rate of industrial growth and availability of low-carbon electricity. We find that a policy of “re-industrialisation” for NRW based on the current industrial structures (assumed here to represent an average growth of NRWs industrial gross value added (GVA of 1.6% per year until 2030 and 0.6% per year from 2030 to 2050, would pose a significant challenge for the achievement of overall energy demand and German greenhouse gas (GHG emission targets, in particular as remaining efficiency potentials in NRW are limited. In the best-available technology (BAT scenario CO2 emission reductions of only 16% are achieved, whereas the low carbon (LC and the carbon capture and storage (CCS scenario achieve 50% and 79% reduction respectively. Our results indicate the importance of successful development and implementation of a decarbonised electricity supply and breakthrough technologies in industry—such as electrification, hydrogen-based processes for steel, alternative cements or CCS—if significant growth is to be achieved in combination with climate mitigation. They, however, also show that technological solutions alone, together with unmitigated growth in consumption of material goods, could be insufficient to meet GHG reduction targets in industry.

  19. CO2 emissions, natural gas and renewables, economic growth: Assessing the evidence from China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Kangyin; Sun, Renjin; Dong, Xiucheng

    2018-05-31

    This study aims to test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in China by developing a new framework based on the suggestion of Narayan and Narayan (2010). The dynamic effect of natural gas and renewable energy consumption on CO 2 emissions is also analyzed. Considering the structural break observed in the sample, a series of econometric techniques allowing for structural breaks is utilized for the period 1965-2016. The empirical results confirm the existence of the EKC for CO 2 emissions in China. Furthermore, in both the long-run and the short-run, the beneficial effects of natural gas and renewables on CO 2 emission reduction are observable. In addition, the mitigation effect of natural gas on CO 2 emissions will be weakened over time, while renewables will become progressively more important. Finally, policy suggestions are highlighted not only for mitigating CO 2 emissions, but also for promoting growth in the natural gas and renewable energy industries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario; Diviser par 4 nos rejets: le scenario Negatep

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P

    2007-01-15

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO{sub 2} emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO{sub 2} releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  1. Utopia Switzerland (2) - A Country Without CO2 Emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Streit, Marco

    2008-01-01

    Global warming and climate change are major themes in the today's energy policy discussion. Awarding Al Gore and the IPCC with the Nobel price in 2007 shows the importance of the climate change for the whole world. That we are running into climatic problems is already known since several decades and possibilities to solve the CO 2 emissions were proposed and discussed since years, but a reduction in the CO 2 emissions is not detectable. This might be due to the fact, that the major part of CO 2 production (traffic and heating) is not consequently touched. It seems to be easier to discuss about renewable energies in the electricity market than in other areas. And the consequences of discussing stepping out of nuclear all over the world, has enforced the problem. Although the renaissance of nuclear has started and the known positive impact to the climate from this energy source, it is not forced to be the solution for the biggest problem of the near future. There are only a few countries worldwide which produce electricity without or with only small amounts of CO 2 emissions like Norway or Switzerland. Those countries could be demonstration countries to show the possibilities for reducing and avoiding CO 2 emissions. Would it be possible to replace all fossil energy sources during a reasonable period of time by using nuclear energy and hydrogen as an energy storage system? Is this scenario technical feasible and of economic interest for a small, developed country like Switzerland? If yes, Switzerland might be a good candidate to establish the first CO 2 -free industrial developed state in the world. Looking much more ahead this study will discuss a simple but might be effective scenario for Switzerland. The study is based on a paper presented at IYNC 2006 and will update the used data as well as going in more details. (authors)

  2. Evasion of CO{sub 2} injected into the ocean in the context of CO{sub 2} stabilization

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haroon S. Kheshgi [ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company, Annandale, NJ (United States)

    2003-07-01

    The eventual evasion of injected CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere is one consideration when assessing deep sea disposal of CO{sub 2} as a potential response option to climate change concerns. Evasion estimated using an ocean carbon cycle model is compared to long-term trajectories for future CO{sub 2} emissions, including illustrative cases leading to stabilization of CO{sub 2} concentration at various levels. Modeled residence time for CO{sub 2} injected into the deep ocean exceeds the 100-year time scale usually considered in scenarios for future emissions, and the potential impacts of climate change. Illustrative cases leading monotonically to constant CO{sub 2} concentration have been highlighted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to give guidance on possible timing of emission reductions that may be required to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at various levels. For stabilization cases considered, significant modeled evasion does not occur until long after CO{sub 2} emissions have reached a maximum and begun to decline. Illustrative cases can also lead to a maximum in CO{sub 2} concentration followed by a decline to slowly decreasing concentrations. In such cases, future injection of emissions into the deep ocean leads to lower maximum CO{sub 2} concentration, with less effect on concentration later on in time. 20 refs., 4 figs.

  3. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  4. Macroeconomic impacts of climate change mitigation in Latin America: A cross-model comparison

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kober, Tom; Summerton, Philip; Pollitt, Hector; Chewpreecha, Unnada; Ren, Xiaolin; Wills, William; Octaviano, Claudia; McFarland, James; Beach, Robert; Cai, Yongxia; Calderon, Silvia; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; Rodriguez, Ana Maria Loboguerrero

    2016-01-01

    In this paper we analyse macroeconomic consequences of greenhouse gas emission mitigation in Latin America up to 2050 through a multi-model comparison approach undertaken in the context of the CLIMACAP–LAMP research project. We compare two carbon tax scenarios with a business-as-usual scenario of anticipated future energy demand. In the short term, with carbon prices reaching around $15/tCO_2 by 2030, most models agree that the reduction in consumer spending, as a proxy for welfare, is limited to about 0.3%. By 2050, at carbon prices of $165/tCO_2, there is much more divergence in the estimated impact on consumer spending as well as GDP across models and regions, which reflects uncertainties about technology costs and substitution opportunities between technologies. We observe that the consequences of increasingly higher carbon prices, in terms of reduced consumer spending and GDP, tend to be fairly linear with the carbon price in our CGE models. However, the consequences are divergent and nonlinear in our econometric model, that is linked to an energy system model that simulates step-changes in technology substitution. The results of one model show that climate policy measures can have positive effects on consumer spending and GDP, which results from an investment stimulus and the redistribution of carbon price revenues to consumers. - Highlights: • Depending on the model approach negative and positive macro-economic impacts are possible if carbon taxes are introduced. • Limited impact of moderate carbon taxes (up to $15/tCO_2 by 2030) on consumer spending in the medium-term • Impact of High CO_2 prices (around $165/tCO_2 in 2050) on GDP 5% at most in the long-term

  5. An analysis of Chinas CO2 emission peaking target and pathways

    OpenAIRE

    He, Jian-Kun

    2017-01-01

    China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for Chinas resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the ...

  6. Estimating GHG emission mitigation supply curves of large-scale biomass use on a country level

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dornburg, Veronika; Dam, Jinke van; Faaij, Andre

    2007-01-01

    This study evaluates the possible influences of a large-scale introduction of biomass material and energy systems and their market volumes on land, material and energy market prices and their feedback to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission mitigation costs. GHG emission mitigation supply curves for large-scale biomass use were compiled using a methodology that combines a bottom-up analysis of biomass applications, biomass cost supply curves and market prices of land, biomaterials and bioenergy carriers. These market prices depend on the scale of biomass use and the market volume of materials and energy carriers and were estimated using own-price elasticities of demand. The methodology was demonstrated for a case study of Poland in the year 2015 applying different scenarios on economic development and trade in Europe. For the key technologies considered, i.e. medium density fibreboard, poly lactic acid, electricity and methanol production, GHG emission mitigation costs increase strongly with the scale of biomass production. Large-scale introduction of biomass use decreases the GHG emission reduction potential at costs below 50 Euro /Mg CO 2eq with about 13-70% depending on the scenario. Biomaterial production accounts for only a small part of this GHG emission reduction potential due to relatively small material markets and the subsequent strong decrease of biomaterial market prices at large scale of production. GHG emission mitigation costs depend strongly on biomass supply curves, own-price elasticity of land and market volumes of bioenergy carriers. The analysis shows that these influences should be taken into account for developing biomass implementations strategies

  7. Strategic research on CO2 emission reduction for China. Application of MARKAL to China energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yongping

    1995-09-01

    MARKAL was applied to the energy system for analyzing the CO 2 emission reduction in China over the time period from 1990 to 2050. First the Chinese Reference Energy System (CRES) was established based on the framework of MARKAL model. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. When shifting from scenario LH (low useful energy demand and high import fuel prices) to HL (high demand and low prices), another 33 EJ of primary energy will be consumed and another 2.31 billion tons of CO 2 will be emitted in 2050. Detailed analyses on the disaggregation of CO 2 emissions by Kaya Formula show. The energy intensity (primary energy/GDP) decreases much faster in scenario HL, but the higher growth rate of GDP per capita is the overwhelming factor that results in higher CO 2 emission per capita in the baseline case of scenario HL in comparison with LH. When the carbon taxes are imposed on CO 2 emissions, the residential sector will make the biggest contribution to CO 2 emission abatement from a long-term point of view. However, it's difficult to stabilize CO 2 emission per capita before 2030 in both scenarios even with heavy carbon taxes. When nuclear moratorium occurs, more 560 million tons of CO 2 will be emitted to the atmosphere in 2050 under the same CO 2 tax regime. From the analysis of value flow, CO 2 emission reduction depends largely on new or advanced technologies particularly in the field of electricity generation. The competent technologies switch to those CO 2 less-emitting technologies when surcharging CO 2 emissions. Nuclear power shows significant potential in saving fossil energy resources and reducing CO 2 emissions. (J.P.N.)

  8. Quantifying the evidence for co-benefits between species conservation and climate change mitigation in giant panda habitats.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Renqiang; Xu, Ming; Powers, Ryan; Zhao, Fen; Jetz, Walter; Wen, Hui; Sheng, Qingkai

    2017-10-05

    Conservationists strive for practical, cost-effective management solutions to forest-based species conservation and climate change mitigation. However, this is compromised by insufficient information about the effectiveness of protected areas in increasing carbon storage, and the co-benefits of species and carbon conservation remain poorly understood. Here, we present the first rigorous quantitative assessment of the roles of giant panda nature reserves (NRs) in carbon sequestration, and explore the co-benefits of habitat conservation and climate change mitigation. Results show that more than 90% of the studied panda NRs are effective in increasing carbon storage, with the mean biomass carbon density of the whole NRs exhibiting a 4.2% higher growth rate compared with lands not declared as NRs over the period 1988-2012, while this effectiveness in carbon storage masks important patterns of spatial heterogeneity across the giant panda habitats. Moreover, the significant associations have been identified between biomass carbon density and panda's habitat suitability in ~85% NRs and at the NR level. These findings suggest that the planning for carbon and species conservation co-benefits would enhance the greatest return on limited conservation investments, which is a critical need for the giant panda after its conservation status has been downgraded from "endangered" to "vulnerable".

  9. International and European legal aspects on underground geological storage of CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wall, C.; Olvstam, M.-L.; Bernstone, C.

    2005-01-01

    The often disconnected international and European legal rules regarding carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) storage in geological formations create legal uncertainty and a slow down in investments. Existing rules for waste dumping, such as the OSPAR and London Conventions implies that CO 2 storage in sub seabed geological formations is not permitted for climate change mitigating purposes. This paper emphasized that even in cases when complete certainty about the exact application of a legal rule is not possible, it is necessary to know if an activity is lawful. It also emphasized that CO 2 storage should be a priority in the international agenda. The current gaps in knowledge concerning the relevant international and European legislation directly related to CO 2 storage were identified in this paper, including long-term liability for risk of damages caused during the injection phase of the well. The current relevant legislation that is not directly concerned with CO 2 storage but which might have an impact on future legislation was also discussed along with relevant legal principles that might influence future legislation. Some of the many ongoing projects concerning CO 2 storage were reviewed along with papers and reports on regulating CO 2 storage. It was concluded that if CO 2 capture and storage is going to be a large-scale concept for mitigating climate change, the legal issues and requirements need to be an area of priority. 16 refs

  10. Carbon deposition and sulfur poisoning during CO2 electrolysis in nickel-based solid oxide cell electrodes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skafte, Theis Løye; Blennow, Peter; Hjelm, Johan

    2017-01-01

    is investigated systematically using simple current-potential experiments. Due to variations of local conditions, it is shown that higher current density and lower fuel electrode porosity will cause local carbon formation at the electrochemical reaction sites despite operating with a CO outlet concentration...... outside the thermodynamic carbon formation region. Attempts at mitigating the issue by coating the composite nickel/yttria-stabilized zirconia electrode with carbon-inhibiting nanoparticles and by sulfur passivation proved unsuccessful. Increasing the fuel electrode porosity is shown to mitigate......Reduction of CO2 to CO and O2 in the solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) has the potential to play a crucial role in closing the CO2 loop. Carbon deposition in nickel-based cells is however fatal and must be considered during CO2 electrolysis. Here, the effect of operating parameters...

  11. Effects of high energy prices on scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions. Final report; Energiepreise und Klimaschutz. Wirkung hoher Energietraegerpreise auf die CO{sub 2}-Emissionsminderung bis 2030. Abschlussbericht

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix Christian; Graichen, Verena; Harthan, Ralph O.; Repenning, Julia [Oeko-Institut, Berlin (Germany); Horn, Manfred [DIW Berlin (Germany); Krey, Volker; Markewitz, Peter; Martinsen, Dag [Forschungszentrum Juelich (Germany). Programmgruppe STE

    2008-05-15

    Against the background of high increases in the prices of the primary energy carriers crude oil, natural gas and hard coal, which are traded on international markets, three scenarios of the price development of the most important energy carriers are developed. Using energy price assumptions, a scenario analysis is undertaken with regard to the development of CO{sub 2} emissions in Germany as a whole as well as in terms of the different energy sectors. The emission scenarios are analysed with respect to the electricity industry in Germany using both IKARUS, the energy system model geared towards macroeconomic optimisation, and ELIAS, the sector model based on microeconomic considerations. The model analyses are supplemented by an overview of literature with regard to similar model analyses. (orig.)

  12. Long-term implications of alternative light-duty vehicle technologies for global greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kyle, Page; Kim, Son H.

    2011-01-01

    This study assesses global light-duty vehicle (LDV) transport in the upcoming century, and the implications of vehicle technology advancement and fuel-switching on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy demands. Five different vehicle technology scenarios are analyzed with and without a CO 2 emissions mitigation policy using the GCAM integrated assessment model: a reference internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, an advanced internal combustion engine vehicle scenario, and three alternative fuel vehicle scenarios in which all LDVs are switched to natural gas, electricity, or hydrogen by 2050. The emissions mitigation policy is a global CO 2 emissions price pathway that achieves 450 ppmv CO 2 at the end of the century with reference vehicle technologies. The scenarios demonstrate considerable emissions mitigation potential from LDV technology; with and without emissions pricing, global CO 2 concentrations in 2095 are reduced about 10 ppmv by advanced ICEV technologies and natural gas vehicles, and 25 ppmv by electric or hydrogen vehicles. All technological advances in vehicles are important for reducing the oil demands of LDV transport and their corresponding CO 2 emissions. Among advanced and alternative vehicle technologies, electricity- and hydrogen-powered vehicles are especially valuable for reducing whole-system emissions and total primary energy. - Highlights: → Alternative-fuel LDVs reduce whole-system CO 2 emissions, even without carbon pricing. → Alternative-fuel LDVs enhance the CO 2 mitigation capacity of the transportation sector. → Electric and hydrogen vehicles reduce whole-system primary energy supporting LDV transport.

  13. Geological Storage of CO2. Site Selection Criteria; Almacenamiento Geologico de CO2. Criterios de Seleccion de Emplazamientos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz, C; Martinez, R; Recreo, F; Prado, P; Campos, R; Pelayo, M; Losa, A de la; Hurtado, A; Lomba, L; Perez del Villar, L; Ortiz, G; Sastre, J

    2006-07-01

    In year 2002 the Spanish Parliament unanimously passed the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, signed December 1997, compromising to limiting the greenhouse gas emissions increase. Later on, the Environment Ministry submitted the Spanish National Assignment Emissions Plan to the European Union and in year 2005 the Spanish Greenhouse Gas market started working, establishing taxes to pay in case of exceeding the assigned emissions limits. So, the avoided emissions of CO2 have now an economic value that is promoting new anthropogenic CO2 emissions reduction technologies. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are among these new technological developments for mitigating or eliminate climate change. CO2 can be stored in geological formations such as depleted oil or gas fields, deep permeable saline water saturated formations and unmineable coal seams, among others. This report seeks to establish the selection criteria for suitable geological formations for CO2 storage in the Spanish national territory, paying attention to both the operational and performance requirements of these storage systems. The report presents the physical and chemical properties and performance of CO2 under storage conditions, the transport and reaction processes of both supercritical and gaseous CO2, and CO2 trapping mechanisms in geological formations. The main part of the report is devoted to geological criteria at watershed, site and formation scales. (Author) 100 ref.

  14. The Value of CCS under Current Policy Scenarios: NDCs and Beyond

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Davidson, Casie L.; Dahowski, Robert T.; McJeon, Haewon C.; Clarke, Leon E.; Iyer, Gokul C.; Muratori, Matteo

    2017-07-01

    This paper describes preliminary results of analysis using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to evaluate the potential role of CCS in addressing emissions reduction targets. Scenarios are modelled using the Paris-Increased Ambition (PIA) case developed by Fawcett et al. (2015), and a more aggressive Paris Two-Degree Ambition (P2A) case. Both cases are based upon nationally determined contributions (NDCs) agreed to at the UNFCCC Conference of Parties (COP-21) in December 2015, coupled with additional mitigation effort beyond the 2030 Paris timeframe, through the end of the century. Analysis of CCS deployment and abatement costs under both policy scenarios suggests that, as modelled, having CCS in the technological portfolio could reduce the global cost of addressing emissions reduction targets specified under the policy scenario by trillions of dollars, primarily by enabling a smoother and lower-cost transition to next-generation technologies. Through the end of the century, total global abatement costs associated with the PIA case – with five percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 2.2 degrees by 2100 – are reduced by $15 trillion USD in the scenario where CCS is available to deploy by 2025 and remains available through 2100, reflecting a 47 percent savings in the cost of climate change abatement. Under the more ambitious P2A case, with 8 percent annual reduction in emission intensity and reaching 1.9 degrees by 2100, the availability of CCS reduces global abatement costs by $22 trillion USD through the end of the century, again nearly halving the costs of addressing the policy, relative to achieving the same target using an energy portfolio that does not include CCS. PIA and P2A scenarios with CCS result in 1,250 and 1,580 GtCO2 of global geologic storage by the end of the century, respectively.

  15. Energy implications of CO{sub 2} stabilization. Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffert, M.I.; Caldeira, K.; Jain, A.K. [and others

    1997-12-01

    Analysis of carbon emissions paths stabilizing atmospheric CO{sub 2} in the 350--750 ppmv range reveals that implementing the UN Climate Convention will become increasingly difficult as the stabilization target decreases because of increasing dependence on carbon-free energy sources. Even the central Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenario (IS92a) requires carbon-free primary power by 2050 equal to the humankind`s present fossil-fuel-based primary power consumption {approximately}10 TW (1 TW = 10{sup 12} W). The authors describe and critique the assumptions on which this projection is based, and extend the analysis to scenarios in which atmospheric CO{sub 2} stabilizes. For continued economic growth with CO{sub 2} stabilization, new, cost-effective, carbon-free technologies that can provide primary power of order 10 TW will be needed in the coming decades, and certainly by mid-century, in addition to improved economic productivity of primary energy.

  16. International trade and CO{sub 2} emissions; International handel og CO{sub 2}-udledning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Munksgaard, J.; Pade, L.L. [AKF, Copenhagen (Denmark); Lenzen, M. [Univ. of Sydney (Australia)

    2005-04-01

    International trade has an impact on national CO{sub 2} emissions and consequently on the ability to fulfil national CO{sub 2} reduction targets. Through goods and services traded in a globally interdependent world, the consumption in each country is linked to greenhouse gas emissions in other countries. It has been argued that in order to achieve equitable reduction targets, international trade has to be taken into account when assessing nations' responsibility for abating climate change. Especially for open economies such as Denmark, greenhouse gases embodied in international traded commodities can have a considerable influence on the national greenhouse gas responsibility. Founded in the concepts of 'producer CO{sub 2} responsibility', 'consumer CO{sub 2} responsibility' and 'CO{sub 2} trade balance' the aim of the present study has been to develop the single-region input-output model as used in a previous study into a multi-region input-output model in order to get a more realistic description of the production technologies actually used in the countries of imports. The study concludes that trade is the key to define CO{sub 2} responsibility on macroeconomics level and that imports should be founded in a multi-region model approach. The study also points at the need to consider the impact from foreign trade when negotiating national reduction targets and base line scenarios within the context of international climate agreements. (BA)

  17. How much CO2 is trapped in carbonate minerals of a natural CO2 occurrence?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Király, Csilla; Szabó, Zsuzsanna; Szamosfalvi, Ágnes; Cseresznyés, Dóra; Király, Edit; Szabó, Csaba; Falus, György

    2017-04-01

    Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a transitional technology to decrease CO2 emissions from human fossil fuel usage and, therefore, to mitigate climate change. The most important criteria of a CO2 geological storage reservoir is that it must hold the injected CO2 for geological time scales without its significant seepage. The injected CO2 undergoes physical and chemical reactions in the reservoir rocks such as structural-stratigraphic, residual, dissolution or mineral trapping mechanisms. Among these, the safest is the mineral trapping, when carbonate minerals such as calcite, ankerite, siderite, dolomite and dawsonite build the CO2 into their crystal structures. The study of natural CO2 occurrences may help to understand the processes in CO2 reservoirs on geological time scales. This is the reason why the selected, the Mihályi-Répcelak natural CO2 occurrence as our research area, which is able to provide particular and highly significant information for the future of CO2 storage. The area is one of the best known CO2 fields in Central Europe. The main aim of this study is to estimate the amount of CO2 trapped in the mineral phase at Mihályi-Répcelak CO2 reservoirs. For gaining the suitable data, we apply petrographic, major and trace element (microprobe and LA-ICP-MS) and stable isotope analysis (mass spectrometry) and thermodynamic and kinetic geochemical models coded in PHREEQC. Rock and pore water compositions of the same formation, representing the pre-CO2 flooding stages of the Mihályi-Répcelak natural CO2 reservoirs are used in the models. Kinetic rate parameters are derived from the USGS report of Palandri and Kharaka (2004). The results of petrographic analysis show that a significant amount of dawsonite (NaAlCO3(OH)2, max. 16 m/m%) precipitated in the rock due to its reactions with CO2 which flooded the reservoir. This carbonate mineral alone traps about 10-30 kg/m3 of the reservoir rock from the CO2 at Mihályi-Répcelak area, which is an

  18. IPCC workshop on socio-economic scenarios. Workshop report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Edenhofer, O.; Pichs-Madruga, R.; Sokona, Y. (and others)

    2012-07-01

    The goal of the IPCC Workshop on Socio-Economic Scenarios (WoSES) was to facilitate the development of socioeconomic narratives and pathways by the integrated assessment modelling, impacts, and adaptation communities. Describing these pathways and narratives is a core step to analyzing the interdependent issues of adaptation and mitigation in an integrated manner. The Workshop participants agreed that structured and consistent assessments of possible future impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation would benefit from using shared qualitative narrative and quantitative descriptions of potential socioeconomic and ecosystem reference conditions that underlie challenges to mitigation and adaptation. These descriptions should be flexible enough to provide a framework for comparison within which regional or local studies of adaptation and vulnerability could build their own narratives. The defining socioeconomic conditions of these scenarios are designated Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathways (SSPs). The SSPs define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale and have two elements: a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate change. This assumption defines the SSPs as a baseline independent of climate change projections. The set of SSPs was chosen to characterize the range of uncertainty in mitigation efforts required to achieve particular radiative forcing pathways, in adaptation efforts that could be undertaken to prepare for and respond to the climate change associated with those pathways, and in residual impacts. This will allow assessment of scenarios along two axes: socioeconomic challenges to mitigation, and socioeconomic challenges to adaptation. This conceptualization of SSPs allows them to be combined with different degrees of anthropogenic interference with the climate system (measured in terms of

  19. Accelerated weathering of limestone for CO2 mitigation: Opportunities for the stone and cement industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, William H.; San, Juan A.; Rau, Greg H.; Caldeira, Ken

    2009-01-01

    Large amounts of limestone fines co-produced during the processing of crushed limestone may be useful in the sequestration of carbon dioxide (CO2). Accelerated weathering of limestone (AWL) is proposed as a low-tech method to capture and sequester CO2 from fossil fuel-fired power plants and other point sources such as cement manufacturing. AWL reactants are readily available, inexpensive and environmentally benign. Waste CO2 is hydrated with water to produce carbonic acid. This reacts with and is neutralized by limestone fines, thus converting CO2 gas to dissolved calcium bicarbonate.

  20. Uncertainty studies and risk assessment for CO{sub 2} storage in geological formations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walter, Lena Sophie

    2013-07-01

    Carbon capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations is one possible option to mitigate the greenhouse gas effect by reducing CO{sub 2} emissions into the atmosphere. The assessment of the risks related to CO{sub 2} storage is an important task. Events such as CO{sub 2} leakage and brine displacement could result in hazards for human health and the environment. In this thesis, a systematic and comprehensive risk assessment concept is presented to investigate various levels of uncertainties and to assess risks using numerical simulations. Depending on the risk and the processes, which should be assessed, very complex models, large model domains, large time scales, and many simulations runs for estimating probabilities are required. To reduce the resulting high computational costs, a model reduction technique (the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion) and a method for model coupling in space are applied. The different levels of uncertainties are: statistical uncertainty in parameter distributions, scenario uncertainty, e.g. different geological features, and recognized ignorance due to assumptions in the conceptual model set-up. Recognized ignorance and scenario uncertainty are investigated by simulating well defined model set-ups and scenarios. According to damage values, which are defined as a model output, the set-ups and scenarios can be compared and ranked. For statistical uncertainty probabilities can be determined by running Monte Carlo simulations with the reduced model. The results are presented in various ways: e.g., mean damage, probability density function, cumulative distribution function, or an overall risk value by multiplying the damage with the probability. If the model output (damage) cannot be compared to provided criteria (e.g. water quality criteria), analytical approximations are presented to translate the damage into comparable values. The overall concept is applied for the risks related to brine displacement and infiltration into

  1. Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scown, Corinne D.; Nazaroff, William W.; Mishra, Umakant; Strogen, Bret; Lobscheid, Agnes B.; Masanet, Eric; Santero, Nicholas J.; Horvath, Arpad; McKone, Thomas E.

    2012-03-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11-13 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80-90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO2-equivalent per MJ of fuel.

  2. Lifecycle greenhouse gas implications of US national scenarios for cellulosic ethanol production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scown, Corinne D; Nazaroff, William W; Strogen, Bret; Santero, Nicholas J; Horvath, Arpad; Mishra, Umakant; Lobscheid, Agnes B; Masanet, Eric; McKone, Thomas E

    2012-01-01

    The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 set an annual US national production goal of 39.7 billion l of cellulosic ethanol by 2020. This paper explores the possibility of meeting that target by growing and processing Miscanthus × giganteus. We define and assess six production scenarios in which active cropland and/or Conservation Reserve Program land are used to grow to Miscanthus. The crop and biorefinery locations are chosen with consideration of economic, land-use, water management and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction objectives. Using lifecycle assessment, the net GHG footprint of each scenario is evaluated, providing insight into the climate costs and benefits associated with each scenario’s objectives. Assuming that indirect land-use change is successfully minimized or mitigated, the results suggest two major drivers for overall GHG impact of cellulosic ethanol from Miscanthus: (a) net soil carbon sequestration or emissions during Miscanthus cultivation and (b) GHG offset credits for electricity exported by biorefineries to the grid. Without these factors, the GHG intensity of bioethanol from Miscanthus is calculated to be 11–13 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel, which is 80–90% lower than gasoline. Including soil carbon sequestration and the power-offset credit results in net GHG sequestration up to 26 g CO 2 -equivalent per MJ of fuel. (letter)

  3. Climate change under aggressive mitigation: the ENSEMBLES multi-model experiment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Johns, T.C.; Hewitt, C.D. [Met Office, Hadley Centre, Exeter (United Kingdom); Royer, J.F.; Salas y. Melia, D. [Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques-Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (CNRM-GAME Meteo-France CNRS), Toulouse (France); Hoeschel, I.; Koerper, J. [Freie Universitaet Berlin, Institute for Meteorology, Berlin (Germany); Huebener, H. [Hessian Agency for the Environment and Geology, Wiesbaden (Germany); Roeckner, E.; Giorgetta, M.A. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Manzini, E. [Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna (Italy); Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); May, W.; Yang, S. [Danish Meteorological Institute, Danish Climate Centre, Copenhagen (Denmark); Dufresne, J.L. [Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD/IPSL), UMR 8539 CNRS, ENS, UPMC, Ecole Polytechnique, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Otteraa, O.H. [Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Uni. Bjerknes Centre, Bergen (Norway); Vuuren, D.P. van [Utrecht University, Utrecht (Netherlands); Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands); Denvil, S. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL), FR 636 CNRS, UVSQ, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); Fogli, P.G. [Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna (Italy); Tjiputra, J.F. [University of Bergen, Department of Geophysics, Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway); Stehfest, E. [Planbureau voor de Leefomgeving (PBL), Bilthoven (Netherlands)

    2011-11-15

    We present results from multiple comprehensive models used to simulate an aggressive mitigation scenario based on detailed results of an Integrated Assessment Model. The experiment employs ten global climate and Earth System models (GCMs and ESMs) and pioneers elements of the long-term experimental design for the forthcoming 5th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment. Atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentrations pathways rather than carbon emissions are specified in all models, including five ESMs that contain interactive carbon cycles. Specified forcings also include minor greenhouse gas concentration pathways, ozone concentration, aerosols (via concentrations or precursor emissions) and land use change (in five models). The new aggressive mitigation scenario (E1), constructed using an integrated assessment model (IMAGE 2.4) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K, is studied alongside the medium-high non-mitigation scenario SRES A1B. Resulting twenty-first century global mean warming and precipitation changes for A1B are broadly consistent with previous studies. In E1 twenty-first century global warming remains below 2 K in most models, but global mean precipitation changes are higher than in A1B up to 2065 and consistently higher per degree of warming. The spread in global temperature and precipitation responses is partly attributable to inter-model variations in aerosol loading and representations of aerosol-related radiative forcing effects. Our study illustrates that the benefits of mitigation will not be realised in temperature terms until several decades after emissions reductions begin, and may vary considerably between regions. A subset of the models containing integrated carbon cycles agree that land and ocean sinks remove roughly half of present day anthropogenic carbon emissions from the atmosphere, and that anthropogenic carbon emissions must decrease by at least 50% by 2050 relative

  4. Strategic research on CO{sub 2} emission reduction for China. Application of MARKAL to China energy system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yongping, Wang [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    1995-09-01

    MARKAL was applied to the energy system for analyzing the CO{sub 2} emission reduction in China over the time period from 1990 to 2050. First the Chinese Reference Energy System (CRES) was established based on the framework of MARKAL model. The following conclusions can be drawn from this study. When shifting from scenario LH (low useful energy demand and high import fuel prices) to HL (high demand and low prices), another 33 EJ of primary energy will be consumed and another 2.31 billion tons of CO{sub 2} will be emitted in 2050. Detailed analyses on the disaggregation of CO{sub 2} emissions by Kaya Formula show. The energy intensity (primary energy/GDP) decreases much faster in scenario HL, but the higher growth rate of GDP per capita is the overwhelming factor that results in higher CO{sub 2} emission per capita in the baseline case of scenario HL in comparison with LH. When the carbon taxes are imposed on CO{sub 2} emissions, the residential sector will make the biggest contribution to CO{sub 2} emission abatement from a long-term point of view. However, it`s difficult to stabilize CO{sub 2} emission per capita before 2030 in both scenarios even with heavy carbon taxes. When nuclear moratorium occurs, more 560 million tons of CO{sub 2} will be emitted to the atmosphere in 2050 under the same CO{sub 2} tax regime. From the analysis of value flow, CO{sub 2} emission reduction depends largely on new or advanced technologies particularly in the field of electricity generation. The competent technologies switch to those CO{sub 2} less-emitting technologies when surcharging CO{sub 2} emissions. Nuclear power shows significant potential in saving fossil energy resources and reducing CO{sub 2} emissions. (J.P.N.).

  5. Potential hazards of CO2 leakage in storage systems : learning from natural systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beaubien, S.E.; Lombardi, S.; Ciotoli, G.; Annunziatellis, A.; Hatziyannis, G.; Metaxas, A.; Pearce, J.M.

    2005-01-01

    reservoir by two-phase flow restrictions. Also, most of the studied sites are related to dormant volcanic complexes which are highly faulted, and one site is actually located within a city. Both these issues would clearly be avoided in constructing a CO 2 disposal reservoir. The observed results outlined worst case scenarios, making it possible to predict near surface effects and mitigate possible risks. It was concluded that the negative effects can be spatially restricted and that health risks can be minimized with simple approaches and regulations. 20 refs., 4 figs

  6. Coal utilization in industrial boilers in China - a prospect for mitigating CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fang, J.; Zeng, T.; Yang, L.I.S.; Oye, K.A.; Sarofim, A.F.; Beer, J.M.

    1999-01-01

    It is estimated from GEF statistical data for 1991 that more than 500,000 industrial boilers (mostly stoker-fired) in China consume over 400 million tons of coal per year. Each year, because of low boiler efficiency, 75 million tons of coal is wasted and 130 million tons of excess CO 2 are emitted. An analysis of 250 boiler thermal-balance test certificates and 6 field visits in three provinces have shown that: (1) boilers with efficiencies of less than 70% account for 75% of the total boiler-population; (2) the main causes of the low efficiencies are high excess air and unburned carbon in the slag and fly ash. The effect of unburned carbon on CO 2 emission is a balance of positive and negative contributions: while the unburned carbon does not produce CO 2 emissions, its replacement carbon, burned at a low efficiency, contributes to a net increase in CO 2 emissions. It seems from the analysis that the average boiler efficiency can be raised to 73% by relatively simple means, such as the size grading of the coal, improved boiler operating practice and some inexpensive equipment modifications. This could then result in savings each year of 34 million tons of coal and a reduction in CO 2 emissions of 63 million tons at an estimated cost of $10 per ton of CO 2 . (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

  7. Corrosion in CO2 Post-Combustion Capture with Alkanolamines – A Review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kittel J.

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available CO2 capture and storage plays an important part in industrial strategies for the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. CO2 post-combustion capture with alkanolamines is well adapted for the treatment of large industrial point sources using combustion of fossil fuels for power generation, like coal or gas fired power plants, or the steel and cement industries. It is also one of the most mature technologies to date, since similar applications are already found in other types of industries like acid gas separation, although not at the same scale. Operation of alkanolamine units for CO2 capture in combustion fumes presents several challenges, among which corrosion control plays a great part. It is the aim of this paper to present a review of current knowledge on this specific aspect. In a first part, lessons learnt from several decades of use of alkanolamines for natural gas separation in the oil and gas industry are discussed. Then, the specificities of CO2 post-combustion capture are presented, and their consequences on corrosion risks are discussed. Corrosion mitigation strategies, and research and development efforts to find new and more efficient solvents are also highlighted. In a last part, concerns about CO2 transport and geological storage are discussed, with recommendations on CO2 quality and concentration of impurities.

  8. Subsurface watering resulted in reduced soil N2O and CO2 emissions and their global warming potentials than surface watering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Qi; Xu, Junzeng; Yang, Shihong; Liao, Linxian; Jin, Guangqiu; Li, Yawei; Hameed, Fazli

    2018-01-01

    Water management is an important practice with significant effect on greenhouse gases (GHG) emission from soils. Nitrous oxide (N2O) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their global warming potentials (GWPs) from subsurface watering soil (SUW) were investigated, with surface watering (SW) as a control. Results indicated that the N2O and CO2 emissions from SUW soils were somewhat different to those from SW soil, with the peak N2O and CO2 fluxes from SUW soil reduced by 28.9% and 19.4%, and appeared 72 h and 168 h later compared with SW. The fluxes of N2O and CO2 from SUW soils were lower than those from SW soil in both pulse and post-pulse periods, and the reduction was significantly (p0.1) lower that from SW soil. Moreover, N2O and CO2 fluxes from both watering treatments increased exponentially with increase of soil water-filled pore space (WFPS) and temperature. Our results suggest that watering soil from subsurface could significantly reduce the integrative greenhouse effect caused by N2O and CO2 and is a promising strategy for soil greenhouse gases (GHGs) mitigation. And the pulse period, contributed most to the reduction in emissions of N2O and CO2 from soils between SW and SUW, should be a key period for mitigating GHGs emissions. Response of N2O and CO2 emissions to soil WFPS and temperature illustrated that moisture was the dominant parameters that triggering GHG pulse emissions (especially for N2O), and temperature had a greater effect on the soil microorganism activity than moisture in drier soil. Avoiding moisture and temperature are appropriate for GHG emission at the same time is essential for GHGs mitigation, because peak N2O and CO2 emission were observed only when moisture and temperature are both appropriate.

  9. Effects of New Fossil Fuel Developments on the Possibilities of Meeting 2C Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meindertsma, W.; Blok, K.

    2012-12-15

    Recent years have seen an increasing activity in developing new fossil fuel production capacity. This includes unconventional fossil fuels, such as tar sands and shale gas, fossil fuels from remote locations, and fossil fuels with a very large increase in production in the near future. In this report, the impact of such developments on our ability to mitigate climate change is investigated. Our inventory shows that the new fossil fuel developments currently underway consist of 29,400 billion cubic meters of natural gas, 260,000 million barrels of oil and 49,600 million tonnes of coal. The development of these new fossil fuels would result in emissions of 300 billion tonnes of CO2 -equivalent (CO2e) from 2012 until 2050. Until 2050, a 'carbon budget' of 1550 billion tonnes CO2e is still available if we want to of keep global warming below 2C with a 50% probability. For a 75% probability to stay below 2C this budget is only 1050 billion tonnes CO2e. So, the new fossil fuel developments identified in this report consume 20-33% of the remaining carbon budget until 2050. In a scenario where the new fossil fuels are developed, we need to embark on a rapid emission reductions pathway at the latest in 2019 in order to meet the 50% probability carbon budget. Avoiding the development of new fossil fuels will give us until 2025 to start further rapid emission reductions. These calculations are based on the assumption that the maximum emission reduction rate is 4% per year and that the maximum change in emission trend is 0.5 percentage point per year. The starting year for rapid emission reductions depends on the choice of these parameters. A sensitivity analysis shows that, in all cases, refraining from new fossil fuel development allows for a delay of 5 to 8 years before we should embark on a rapid emission reduction pathway. The high investments required for developing new fossil fuels lead to a lock in effect; once developed, these fossil fuels need to be

  10. Costs of radon diagnostics and mitigation in school building

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Leovic, K.W.; Rector, H.; Nagda, N.

    1992-01-01

    To determine the costs of radon diagnostics and active soil depressurization (ASD) system installation in schools, seven radon mitigators with extensive experience in school buildings were surveyed. The cost data were determined by providing the mitigators with two scenarios of open-quotes typicalclose quotes school buildings with elevated radon levels. The questionnaire in schools: (1) Review Construction Plans, (2) Conduct Diagnostic Measurements, (3) Design Mitigation System, (4) Purchase ASD Material, and (5) Install and Checkout ASD System. Based on the results of this survey, it is estimated that the average cost of ASD diagnostics and mitigation in a typical school would be roughly $0.50 per ft 2 . However, these costs would be higher in schools with extensive subslab walls, very poor PFE, and lower in simple schools with very good PFE and no subslab barriers to communication. The variations in costs provided by the mitigators are primarily due to the influences of (1) experience and practices of the mitigation companies, (2) ASD system requirements as perceived by the respondents, and (3) the degree of involvement by the school system in the process

  11. Utilization of the cyanobacteria Anabaena sp CH1 in biological carbon dioxide mitigation processes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chiang, C.L.; Lee, C.M.; Chen, P.C. [Hungkuang University, Taichung (Taiwan)

    2011-05-15

    Before switching totally to alternative fuel stage, CO{sub 2} mitigation process has considered a transitional strategy for combustion of fossil fuels inevitably. In comparison to other CO{sub 2} mitigation options, such as oceanic or geologic injection, the biological photosynthetic process would present a far superior and sustainable solution under both environmental and social considerations. The utilization of the cyanobacteria Anabaena sp. CH1 in carbon dioxide mitigation processes is analyzed in our research. It was found that an original developed photobioreactor with internal light source exhibits high light utilization. Anabaena sp. CH1 demonstrates excellent CO{sub 2} tolerance even at 15% CO{sub 2} level. This enables flue gas from power plant to be directly introduced to Anabaena sp. CH1 culture. Double light intensity and increased 47% CO{sub 2} bubble retention time could enhance CO{sub 2} removal efficiencies by 79% and 67%, respectively. A maximum CO{sub 2} fixation rate of 1.01 g CO{sub 2} L{sup -1} day{sup -1} was measured experimentally.

  12. Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China 2012: Inventory and Supply Chain Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Bo; Zhang, Yaowen; Zhao, Xueli; Meng, Jing

    2018-01-01

    Reliable inventory information is critical in informing emission mitigation efforts. Using the latest officially released emission data, which is production based, we take a consumption perspective to estimate the non-CO2 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China in 2012. The non-CO2 GHG emissions, which cover CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6, amounted to 2003.0 Mt. CO2-eq (including 1871.9 Mt. CO2-eq from economic activities), much larger than the total CO2 emissions in some developed countries. Urban consumption (30.1%), capital formation (28.2%), and exports (20.6%) derived approximately four fifths of the total embodied emissions in final demand. Furthermore, the results from structural path analysis help identify critical embodied emission paths and key economic sectors in supply chains for mitigating non-CO2 GHG emissions in Chinese economic systems. The top 20 paths were responsible for half of the national total embodied emissions. Several industrial sectors such as Construction, Production and Supply of Electricity and Steam, Manufacture of Food and Tobacco and Manufacture of Chemicals, and Chemical Products played as the important transmission channels. Examining both production- and consumption-based non-CO2 GHG emissions will enrich our understanding of the influences of industrial positions, final consumption demands, and trades on national non-CO2 GHG emissions by considering the comprehensive abatement potentials in the supply chains.

  13. Coupled Hydro-Mechanical Simulations of CO2 Storage Supported by Pressure Management Demonstrate Synergy Benefits from Simultaneous Formation Fluid Extraction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kempka Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available We assessed the synergetic benefits of simultaneous formation fluid extraction during CO2 injection for reservoir pressure management by coupled hydro-mechanical simulations at the prospective Vedsted storage site located in northern Denmark. Effectiveness of reservoir pressure management was investigated by simulation of CO2 storage without any fluid extraction as well as with 66% and 100% equivalent volume formation fluid extraction from four wells positioned for geothermal heat recovery. Simulation results demonstrate that a total pressure reduction of up to about 1.1 MPa can be achieved at the injection well. Furthermore, the areal pressure perturbation in the storage reservoir can be significantly decreased compared to the simulation scenario without any formation fluid extraction. Following a stress regime analysis, two stress regimes were considered in the coupled hydro-mechanical simulations indicating that the maximum ground surface uplift is about 0.24 m in the absence of any reservoir pressure management. However, a ground uplift mitigation of up to 37.3% (from 0.24 m to 0.15 m can be achieved at the injection well by 100% equivalent volume formation fluid extraction. Well-based adaptation of fluid extraction rates can support achieving zero displacements at the proposed formation fluid extraction wells located close to urban infrastructure. Since shear and tensile failure do not occur under both stress regimes for all investigated scenarios, it is concluded that a safe operation of CO2 injection with simultaneous formation fluid extraction for geothermal heat recovery can be implemented at the Vedsted site.

  14. Challenges in Implementing Emission Mitigation Technologies in Indonesia Agricultural Sector: Criticizing the Available Mitigation Technologies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malahayati Marissa

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Reduction of Green House Gas (GHG emissions in the agricultural sector is the main target for reducing non-CO2 emissions. In Indonesia, the agricultural sector is the third largest GHG emitter, far behind that from Land Use Change and Forestry (LUCF and the energy sector. However, the agricultural sector is the biggest contributor of non-CO2 emissions and is also the most vulnerable sector to climate change. The Indonesian government is committed to reduce total emission inform current levels by 29% by 2030 under Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC. This will require reductions in emissions from all sectors including agriculture. Several mitigation technologies have been recommended by UNFCCC for implementation such as replacing urea with ammonium sulfate fertilizer; replacing nitrogen fertilizer with multicontent fertilizer; water irrigation management; replacing roughage with concentrate as livestock feed; and building biogas digesters. From our Computer General Equilibrium (CGE simulation, if the focus of mitigation technology implementation in agriculture is to reduce non-CO2 emissions gases such as CH4 and N2O, then a comprehensive approach is needed. If the government implements the technology partially, we predict there will be a trade-off between CH4 and N2O emission. However, our simulation shows the loss to GDP caused by a new emission mitigation policy is very high even though Indonesia has invested for mitigation technology in agriculture. This is because we consider the additional investment needed will be costly and some technologies may not be suitable for implementation in Indonesia. In this research, we review current literature and examine each technology and its cost and compatibility with Indonesian situations in order to make policy recommendations for implementation by the Indonesia government.

  15. Constraining East Asian CO2 emissions with GOSAT retrievals: methods and policy implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shim, C.; Henze, D. K.; Deng, F.

    2017-12-01

    The world largest CO2 emissions are from East Asia. However, there are large uncertainties in CO2 emission inventories, mainly because of imperfections in bottom-up statistics and a lack of observations for validating emission fluxes, particularly over China. Here we tried to constrain East Asian CO2 emissions with GOSAT retrievals applying 4-Dvar GEOS-Chem and its adjoint model. We applied the inversion to only the cold season (November - February) in 2009 - 2010 since the summer monsoon and greater transboundary impacts in spring and fall greatly reduced the GOSAT retrievals. In the cold season, the a posteriori CO2 emissions over East Asia generally higher by 5 - 20%, particularly Northeastern China shows intensively higher in a posteriori emissions ( 20%), where the Chinese government is recently focusing on mitigating the air pollutants. In another hand, a posteriori emissions from Southern China are lower 10 - 25%. A posteriori emissions in Korea and Japan are mostly higher by 10 % except over Kyushu region. With our top-down estimates with 4-Dvar CO2 inversion, we will evaluate the current regional CO2 emissions inventories and potential uncertainties in the sectoral emissions. This study will help understand the quantitative information on anthropogenic CO2 emissions over East Asia and will give policy implications for the mitigation targets.

  16. MODEL SIMULASI EMISI DAN PENYERAPAN CO2 DI KOTA BOGOR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rizka Permatayakti Rasyidta Nur

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Most of the urban pollution is the result of carbon dioxide (CO2 emission from human activities. This research identified CO2 emission and absorption in Bogor, and also the alternatives to solve the emission problem by system model and simulation. CO2 emission and absorption system model was created using software Stella 9.0.2 based on loss-gain emission concept for 30 years prediction. Human activities that contribute to CO2 emission are transportation, industries, energy consumption such as fuel or electricity, house hold waste, and farms, while the decrease factor is green open spaces as CO2 sequester. The alternatives to solve emission problem in Bogor is created based on green city concept by including the environmental aspects in every urban activity. The result of this research, the CO2 emission of Bogor reached 20.027.878 tons and the absorption reached 93.843 tons in 2042. Combined mitigation alternatives in several sectors could reduce CO2 emission by 2.797.667 tons in 2042 and CO2 emission could be neutralized by reforestation in 2036.

  17. Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions in the production of fluid milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasula, Peggy M; Nutter, Darin W

    2011-01-01

    Global climate change, driven by the buildup of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere, is challenging the dairy industries in the United States and throughout the world to develop sustainable initiatives to reduce their environmental impact. The U.S. dairy industry has committed to lowering the GHG emissions, primarily CH(4), N(2)O, and CO(2), in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain which extends from the farm, to the processing plant, and to distribution of the packaged product, where it is refrigerated by the retailer and then the consumer. This chapter provides an overview of the life cycle analysis (LCA) technique and its use in identifying the GHG emissions in each sector of the fluid milk supply chain, from cradle to grave, and the best practices and research that is currently being conducted to reduce or mitigate GHG emissions in each sector. We also discuss the use of on-farm and off-farm process simulation as tools for evaluating on-farm mitigation techniques, off-farm alternative processing scenarios, and use of alternative energy management practices. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Possible pathways for dealing with Japan's post-Fukushima challenge and achieving CO2 emission reduction targets in 2030

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Su, Xuanming; Zhou, Weisheng; Sun, Faming; Nakagami, Ken'Ichi

    2014-01-01

    Considering the unclear nuclear future of Japan after Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident since Mar. 11, 2011, this study assesses a series of energy consumption scenarios including the reference scenario, nuclear limited scenarios and current nuclear use level scenario for Japan in 2030 by the G-CEEP (Glocal Century Energy Environment Planning) model. The simulation result for each scenario is firstly presented in terms of primary energy consumption, electricity generation, CO 2 emission, marginal abatement cost and GDP (gross domestic product) loss. According to the results, energy saving contributes the biggest share in total CO 2 emission reduction, regardless of different nuclear use levels and different CO 2 emission reduction levels. A certain amount of coal generation can be retained in the nuclear limited scenarios due to the applying of CCS (carbon capture and storage). The discussion indicates that Japan needs to improve energy use efficiency, increase renewable energy and introduce CCS in order to reduce the dependence on nuclear power and to achieve CO 2 emission reduction target in 2030. In addition, it is ambitious for Japan to achieve the zero nuclear scenario with 30% CO 2 emission reduction which will cause a marginal abatement cost of 383 USD/tC and up to −2.54% GDP loss from the reference scenario. Dealing with the nuclear power issue, Japan is faced with a challenge as well as an opportunity. - Highlights: • Nuclear use limited and carbon emission reduction scenarios for Japan in 2030. • Contributions of different abatement options to carbon emissions. • CCS for reducing dependence on nuclear power

  19. Assessment of the water supply:demand ratios in a Mediterranean basin under different global change scenarios and mitigation alternatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boithias, Laurie; Acuña, Vicenç; Vergoñós, Laura; Ziv, Guy; Marcé, Rafael; Sabater, Sergi

    2014-02-01

    Spatial differences in the supply and demand of ecosystem services such as water provisioning often imply that the demand for ecosystem services cannot be fulfilled at the local scale, but it can be fulfilled at larger scales (regional, continental). Differences in the supply:demand (S:D) ratio for a given service result in different values, and these differences might be assessed with monetary or non-monetary metrics. Water scarcity occurs where and when water resources are not enough to meet all the demands, and this affects equally the service of water provisioning and the ecosystem needs. In this study we assess the value of water in a Mediterranean basin under different global change (i.e. both climate and anthropogenic changes) and mitigation scenarios, with a non-monetary metric: the S:D ratio. We computed water balances across the Ebro basin (North-East Spain) with the spatially explicit InVEST model. We highlight the spatial and temporal mismatches existing across a single hydrological basin regarding water provisioning and its consumption, considering or not, the environmental demand (environmental flow). The study shows that water scarcity is commonly a local issue (sub-basin to region), but that all demands are met at the largest considered spatial scale (basin). This was not the case in the worst-case scenario (increasing demands and decreasing supply), as the S:D ratio at the basin scale was near 1, indicating that serious problems of water scarcity might occur in the near future even at the basin scale. The analysis of possible mitigation scenarios reveals that the impact of global change may be counteracted by the decrease of irrigated areas. Furthermore, the comparison between a non-monetary (S:D ratio) and a monetary (water price) valuation metrics reveals that the S:D ratio provides similar values and might be therefore used as a spatially explicit metric to valuate the ecosystem service water provisioning. © 2013.

  20. Utopia Switzerland (2) - A Country Without CO{sub 2} Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Streit, Marco [Aare-Tessin Ltd for Electricity, Bahnhofquai 12, 4601 Olten (Switzerland)

    2008-07-01

    Global warming and climate change are major themes in the today's energy policy discussion. Awarding Al Gore and the IPCC with the Nobel price in 2007 shows the importance of the climate change for the whole world. That we are running into climatic problems is already known since several decades and possibilities to solve the CO{sub 2} emissions were proposed and discussed since years, but a reduction in the CO{sub 2} emissions is not detectable. This might be due to the fact, that the major part of CO{sub 2} production (traffic and heating) is not consequently touched. It seems to be easier to discuss about renewable energies in the electricity market than in other areas. And the consequences of discussing stepping out of nuclear all over the world, has enforced the problem. Although the renaissance of nuclear has started and the known positive impact to the climate from this energy source, it is not forced to be the solution for the biggest problem of the near future. There are only a few countries worldwide which produce electricity without or with only small amounts of CO{sub 2} emissions like Norway or Switzerland. Those countries could be demonstration countries to show the possibilities for reducing and avoiding CO{sub 2} emissions. Would it be possible to replace all fossil energy sources during a reasonable period of time by using nuclear energy and hydrogen as an energy storage system? Is this scenario technical feasible and of economic interest for a small, developed country like Switzerland? If yes, Switzerland might be a good candidate to establish the first CO{sub 2}-free industrial developed state in the world. Looking much more ahead this study will discuss a simple but might be effective scenario for Switzerland. The study is based on a paper presented at IYNC 2006 and will update the used data as well as going in more details. (authors)

  1. SAFRR Tsunami Scenarios and USGS-NTHMP Collaboration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ross, S.; Wood, N. J.; Cox, D. A.; Jones, L.; Cheung, K. F.; Chock, G.; Gately, K.; Jones, J. L.; Lynett, P. J.; Miller, K.; Nicolsky, D.; Richards, K.; Wein, A. M.; Wilson, R. I.

    2015-12-01

    Hazard scenarios provide emergency managers and others with information to help them prepare for future disasters. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, published in 2013, modeled a hypothetical but plausible tsunami, created by an Mw9.1 earthquake occurring offshore from the Alaskan peninsula, and its impacts on the California coast. It presented the modeled inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management, and policy implications for California associated with the scenario tsunami. The intended users were those responsible for making mitigation decisions before and those who need to make rapid decisions during future tsunamis. It provided the basis for many exercises involving, among others, NOAA, the State of Washington, several counties in California, and the National Institutes of Health. The scenario led to improvements in the warning protocol for southern California and highlighted issues that led to ongoing work on harbor and marina safety. Building on the lessons learned in the SAFRR Tsunami Scenario, another tsunami scenario is being developed with impacts to Hawaii and to the source region in Alaska, focusing on the evacuation issues of remote communities with primarily shore parallel roads, and also on the effects of port closures. Community exposure studies in Hawaii (Ratliff et al., USGS-SIR, 2015) provided background for selecting these foci. One complicated and important aspect of any hazard scenario is defining the source event. The USGS is building collaborations with the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program (NTHMP) to consider issues involved in developing a standardized set of tsunami sources to support hazard mitigation work. Other key USGS-NTHMP collaborations involve population vulnerability and evacuation modeling.

  2. Leakage Risk Assessment of CO{sub 2} Transportation by Pipeline at the Illinois Basin Decatur Project, Decatur, Illinois

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mazzoldi, A.; Oldenburg, C. M.

    2013-12-17

    the pipeline route within the ADM plant. Leakage scenarios at sites along the route of the pipeline, where plant operations (e.g., vehicular and train transportation) seem to present a higher likelihood of accidental failure, for example due to vehicles or equipment crashing into the pipeline and completely severing it, were modeled by allowing them to have a double source consistent with the pipeline releasing high-pressure CO{sub 2} from both ends of the broken pipe after a full-bore offset rupture. Simulation results show that the built environment of the plant plays a significant role in the dispersion of the gas as leaking CO{sub 2} can impinge upon buildings and other infrastructure. In all scenarios simulated, the region of very high-concentration of CO{sub 2} is limited to a small area around the pipeline failure, suggesting the likelihood of widespread harmful CO{sub 2} exposure to plant personnel from pipeline leakage is low. An additional risk is posed by the blast wave that emanates from a high-pressure pipeline when it is breached quickly. We estimate the blast wave risk as low because it occurs only for a short time in the immediate vicinity of the rupture, and requires an instantaneous large-scale rupture to occur. We recommend consideration of signage and guard rails and posts to mitigate the likelihood of vehicles crashing into the pipeline. A standardized emergency response plan applicable to capture plants within industrial sites could be developed based on the IBDP that would be useful for other capture plants. Finally, we recommend carrying out coupled wellbore-reservoir blowout scenario modeling to understand the potential for hazardous conditions arising from an unexpected blowout at the wellhead.

  3. Using noble gas fingerprints at the Kerr Farm to assess CO2 leakage allegations linked to the Weyburn-Midale CO2 Monitoring and Storage Project

    OpenAIRE

    Gilfillan, Stuart; Sherk, George Williams; Poreda, Robert J.; Haszeldine, Robert

    2017-01-01

    For carbon capture and storage technology to successfully contribute to climate mitigation efforts, the stored CO2 must be securely isolated from the atmosphere and oceans. Hence, there is a need to establish and verify monitoring techniques that can detect unplanned migration of injected CO2 from a storage site to the near surface. Noble gases are sensitive tracers of crustal fluid input in the subsurface due to their low concentrations and unreactive nature. Several studies have identified ...

  4. Forecasting of CO{sub 2} emissions from fuel combustion using trend analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Koene, Aylin Cigdem [Mugla University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Department of Economics, 48000 Mugla (Turkey); Bueke, Tayfun [Mugla University, Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Department of Physics, 48000 Mugla (Turkey)

    2010-12-15

    those countries can be used for CO{sub 2} emission projections into the future planning. The calculated results for CO{sub 2} emissions from fitted curves have been compared with the projected CO{sub 2} emissions given in International Energy Outlook 2009 of U.S. Department of Energy calculated from ''high economic growth case scenario'', ''reference case scenario'' and ''low economic growth case scenario'' respectively. Agreements between calculated results and the projected CO{sub 2} emissions from different scenarios are in the acceptable range. (author)

  5. Bioenergy as a Mitigation Measure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dass, P.; Brovkin, V.; Müller, C.; Cramer, W.

    2011-12-01

    Numerous studies have shown that bioenergy, being one of the renewable energies with the lowest costs, is expected to play an important role in the near future as climate change mitigation measure. Current practices of converting crop products such as carbohydrates or plant oils to ethanol or biodiesel have limited capabilities to curb emission. Moreover, they compete with food production for the most fertile lands. Thus, second generation bioenergy technologies are being developed to process lignocellulosic plant materials from fast growing tree and grass species. A number of deforestation experiments using Earth System models have shown that in the mid- to high latitudes, deforested surface albedo strongly increases in presence of snow. This biophysical effect causes cooling, which could dominate over the biogeochemical warming effect because of the carbon emissions due to deforestation. In order to find out the global bioenergy potential of extensive plantations in the mid- to high latitudes, and the resultant savings in carbon emissions, we use the dynamic global vegetation model LPJmL run at a high spatial resolution of 0.5°. It represents both natural and managed ecosystems, including the cultivation of cellulosic energy crops. LPJmL is run with 21st century projections of climate and atmospheric CO2 concentration based on the IPCC-SRES business as usual or A2 scenario. Latitudes above 45° in both hemispheres are deforested and planted with crops having the highest bioenergy return for the respective pixels of the model. The rest of the Earth has natural vegetation. The agricultural management intensity values are used such that it results in the best approximation for 1999 - 2003 national yields of wheat and maize as reported by FAOSTAT 2009. Four different scenarios of land management are used ranging from an idealistic or best case scenario, where all limitations of soil and terrain properties are managed to the worst case scenario where none of these

  6. Synthesis of asymmetric polyetherimide membrane for CO2/N2 separation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, A. L.; Salaudeen, Y. O.; Jawad, Z. A.

    2017-06-01

    Large emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the environment requires mitigation to avoid unbearable consequences on global climate change. The CO2 emissions generated by fossil fuel combustion within the power and industrial sectors need to be quickly curbed. The gas emission can be abated using membrane technology; this is one of the most promising approaches for selective separation of CO2/N2. The purpose of the study is to synthesis an asymmetric polyetherimide (PEI) membrane and to establish its morphological characteristics for CO2/N2 separation. The PEI flat-sheet asymmetric membrane was fabricated using phase inversion with N-methyl-2-pyrrolidone (NMP) as solvent and water-isopropanol as a coagulant. Particularly, polymer concentration of 20, 25, and 30 wt. % were studied. In addition, the structure and morphology of the produced membrane were observed using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). Importantly, results showed that the membrane with high PEI concentration of 30 wt. % yield an optimal selectivity of 10.7 for CO2/Nitrogen (N2) separation at 1 bar and 25 ºC for pure gas, aided by the membrane surface morphology. The dense skin present was as a result of non-solvent (water) while isopropanol generates a porous sponge structure. This appreciable separation performance makes the PEI asymmetric membrane an attractive alternative for CO2/N2 separation.

  7. Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheze, Benoit; Chevallier, Julien; Gastineau, Pascal

    2012-01-01

    This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO 2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO 2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO 2 -eq. (a.k.a. 'scenario of type I') recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2 deg. C

  8. H+ irradiation effect in Co-doped BaFe2As2 single crystals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nakajima, Y.; Tsuchiya, Y.; Taen, T.; Tamegai, T.; Kitamura, H.; Murakami, T.

    2011-01-01

    The effect of H + irradiation on the suppression of Tc in Co-doped BaFe 2 As 2 . H + irradiation introduces nonmagnetic scattering centers. Critical Scattering rate is much higher than that expected in s±-pairing scenario. We report the suppression of the critical temperature T c in single crystalline Ba(Fe 1-x Co x ) 2 As 2 at under-, optimal-, and over-doping levels by 3 MeV proton irradiation. T c decreases and residual resistivity increases monotonically with increasing the dose. The low-temperature resistivity does not show the upturn in contrast with the α-particle irradiated NdFeAs(O,F), which suggests that proton irradiation introduces nonmagnetic scattering centers. Critical scattering rates for all samples obtained by three different ways are much higher than that expected in s±-pairing scenario based on inter-band scattering due to antiferro-magnetic spin fluctuations.

  9. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  10. Building a low carbon scenario for France. How a participatory approach can enhance social and economic acceptability

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bibas, Ruben; Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike

    2012-03-01

    This publication presents the French case study of the European ENCI-LowCarb research project: Engaging Civil Society in Low Carbon scenarios. The core activity of this project was the development of a methodology for the transparent integration of stakeholders' contributions in the scenario design process to enhance the stakeholders' acceptance of the resulting low carbon pathways. This attempt at integrating acceptability in scenario-making constitutes an important step to distinguish what is technically and economically feasible from what is acceptable. Today, a wide range of published scenarios emphasize the fact that they are built on public consultations or stakeholders' contributions. However, transparency is lacking concerning the methodology relative to how contributions were taken into account and translated into assumptions that can be used by the modeling tool. The project ENCI-LowCarb aimed at exploring this scientific gap. Energy scenarios outline possible low-carbon futures built around assumptions on fossil fuels prices evolution, technological choices and the mechanisms of energy demand and supply, among others. Scenarios are influential tools in political decision-making processes since they shed light on the long-term impacts of today's investment decisions, especially regarding infrastructures. This is why it is crucial that these pathways derive from discussions with main stakeholders. In this report, the French project team (CIRED and RAC-F) has the pleasure to present energy scenarios for France which derive from a collaborative scenario design process including the participation of a wide range of French stakeholders (civil society organizations including trade unions and non-governmental organizations, private companies, banks, statewide and local authorities). Participating stakeholders were asked to define or select acceptable CO 2 emissions mitigation measures. Their contributions were implemented in the technico-economic model Imaclim

  11. Global Water Scarcity Assessment under Post-SRES Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanasaki, N.; Fujimori, S.

    2011-12-01

    A large number of future projections contributed to the fourth Assessment Report of IPCC were based on Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). Processes toward the fifth Assessment Report are under way, and post-SRES scenarios, called Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) are being prepared. One of the key challenges of SSP is provision of detailed socio-economic scenarios compared to SRES for impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies. In this study, a comprehensive global water scarcity assessment was conducted, using a state of the art global water resources model H08 (Hanasaki et al., 2008a, 2008b, 2010). We used a prototype of SSP developed by National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Two sets of socio economic scenarios and two sets of climate scenarios were prepared to run H08 for the period 2001-2100. Socio-economic scenarios include Business As Usual and High Mitigation Capacity. Climate scenarios include Reference and Mitigation which stabilizes green house gas concentration at a certain level. We analyzed the simulation results of four combinations, particularly focusing on the sensitivity of socio-economic scenarios to major water resources indices.

  12. CO2 geological sequestration: state of art in Italy and abroad

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quattrocchi, Fedora; Bencini, Roberto

    2005-01-01

    This paper proposes a wide scenario on the state of art in Italy and abroad of industrial CO 2 geological sequestration, with particular attention to Weyburn Project. Geochemical monitoring techniques are described, mentioning also geophysical monitoring techniques for CO 2 injected into the soil. Critical choices and objections in Italy to a complete use of clean fossil fuels, hydrogen carrier, clean coal technologies: all of these approaches require geological sequestration of CO 2 [it

  13. Economics show CO2 EOR potential in central Kansas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dubois, M.K.; Byrnes, A.P.; Pancake, R.E.; Willhite, G.P.; Schoeling, L.G.

    2000-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) enhanced oil recovery (EOR) may be the key to recovering hundreds of millions of bbl of trapped oil from the mature fields in central Kansas. Preliminary economic analysis indicates that CO2 EOR should provide an internal rate of return (IRR) greater than 20%, before income tax, assuming oil sells for \\$20/bbl, CO2 costs \\$1/Mcf, and gross utilization is 10 Mcf of CO2/bbl of oil recovered. If the CO2 cost is reduced to \\$0.75/Mcf, an oil price of $17/bbl yields an IRR of 20%. Reservoir and economic modeling indicates that IRR is most sensitive to oil price and CO2 cost. A project requires a minimum recovery of 1,500 net bbl/acre (about 1 million net bbl/1-mile section) under a best-case scenario. Less important variables to the economics are capital costs and non-CO2 related lease operating expenses.

  14. Benefits from increased cooperation and energy trade under CO2 commitments - The Nordic case

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unger, Thomas; Ekvall, Tomas

    2001-01-01

    In this paper, benefits from increasing cross-border cooperation under future CO 2 commitments in the Nordic countries are examined and evaluated. Cooperative strategies including border-free electricity trade, emission-permits trade and extending the natural gas transmission capacity considerably are valued separately and together under varying CO 2 commitments and three different scenarios for future energy demand. In conducting this analysis, the energy-systems engineering model MARKAL was used to model the Nordic energy system. It is shown that all cooperative strategies do lower the abatement costs considerably, especially if all three strategies mentioned are used simultaneously. Additional costs from meeting CO 2 commitments may be at least halved provided that all cooperative strategies are utilized at the same time. Benefits from cooperation are generally larger for scenarios including relatively high future energy demand, while they are lower for scenarios with relatively lower energy demand. In the model used, no specific trend connecting the size of the benefits from cooperation to the size of the CO 2 commitments could be observed

  15. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Aleluia Reis, Lara; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    We present a model comparison study that combines multiple integrated assessment models with a reduced-form global air quality model to assess the potential co-benefits of global climate mitigation policies in relation to the World Health Organization (WHO) goals on air quality and health. We

  16. Geological Storage of CO2. Site Selection Criteria; Almacenamiento Geologico de CO2. Criterios de Selecci0n de Emplazamientos

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ruiz, C; Martinez, R; Recreo, F; Prado, P; Campos, R; Pelayo, M; Losa, A de la; Hurtado, A; Lomba, L; Perez del Villar, L; Ortiz, G; Sastre, J; Zapatero, M A; Suarez, I; Arenillas, A

    2007-09-18

    In year 2002 the Spanish Parliament unanimously passed the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, signed December 1997, compromising to limiting the greenhouse gas emissions increase. Later on, the Environment Ministry submitted the Spanish National Assignment Emissions Plan to the European Union and in year 2005 the Spanish Greenhouse Gas market started working, establishing taxes to pay in case of exceeding the assigned emissions limits. So, the avoided emissions of CO2 have now an economic value that is promoting new anthropogenic CO2 emissions reduction technologies. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are among these new technological developments for mitigating or eliminate climate change. CO2 can be stored in geological formations such as depleted oil or gas fields, deep permeable saline water saturated formations and unmailable coal seams, among others. This report seeks to establish the selection criteria for suitable geological formations for CO2 storage in the Spanish national territory, paying attention to both the operational and performance requirements of these storage systems. The report presents the physical and chemical properties and performance of CO2 under storage conditions, the transport and reaction processes of both supercritical and gaseous CO2, and CO2 trapping mechanisms in geological formations. The main part of the report is devoted to geological criteria at watershed, site and formation scales. (Author) 100 refs.

  17. Numerical studies of CO2 and brine leakage into a shallow aquifer through an open wellbore

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jingrui; Hu, Litang; Pan, Lehua; Zhang, Keni

    2018-03-01

    Industrial-scale geological storage of CO2 in saline aquifers may cause CO2 and brine leakage from abandoned wells into shallow fresh aquifers. This leakage problem involves the flow dynamics in both the wellbore and the storage reservoir. T2Well/ECO2N, a coupled wellbore-reservoir flow simulator, was used to analyze CO2 and brine leakage under different conditions with a hypothetical simulation model in water-CO2-brine systems. Parametric studies on CO2 and brine leakage, including the salinity, excess pore pressure (EPP) and initially dissolved CO2 mass fraction, are conducted to understand the mechanism of CO2 migration. The results show that brine leakage rates increase proportionally with EPP and inversely with the salinity when EPP varies from 0.5 to 1.5 MPa; however, there is no CO2 leakage into the shallow freshwater aquifer if EPP is less than 0.5 MPa. The dissolved CO2 mass fraction shows an important influence on the CO2 plume, as part of the dissolved CO2 becomes a free phase. Scenario simulation shows that the gas lifting effect will significantly increase the brine leakage rate into the shallow freshwater aquifer under the scenario of 3.89% dissolved CO2 mass fraction. The equivalent porous media (EPM) approach used to model the wellbore flow has been evaluated and results show that the EPM approach could either under- or over-estimate brine leakage rates under most scenarios. The discrepancies become more significant if a free CO2 phase evolves. Therefore, a model that can correctly describe the complex flow dynamics in the wellbore is necessary for investigating the leakage problems.

  18. Electricity from fossil fuels without CO2 emissions: assessing the costs of carbon dioxide capture and sequestration in U.S. electricity markets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, T L; Keith, D W

    2001-10-01

    The decoupling of fossil-fueled electricity production from atmospheric CO2 emissions via CO2 capture and sequestration (CCS) is increasingly regarded as an important means of mitigating climate change at a reasonable cost. Engineering analyses of CO2 mitigation typically compare the cost of electricity for a base generation technology to that for a similar plant with CO2 capture and then compute the carbon emissions mitigated per unit of cost. It can be hard to interpret mitigation cost estimates from this plant-level approach when a consistent base technology cannot be identified. In addition, neither engineering analyses nor general equilibrium models can capture the economics of plant dispatch. A realistic assessment of the costs of carbon sequestration as an emissions abatement strategy in the electric sector therefore requires a systems-level analysis. We discuss various frameworks for computing mitigation costs and introduce a simplified model of electric sector planning. Results from a "bottom-up" engineering-economic analysis for a representative U.S. North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) region illustrate how the penetration of CCS technologies and the dispatch of generating units vary with the price of carbon emissions and thereby determine the relationship between mitigation cost and emissions reduction.

  19. Macro economic analysis of CO2 emission limits for China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Z.X.; Folmer, H.; Van Beek, P.

    1995-01-01

    Using a newly developed time-recursive dynamic CGE model for energy and environmental policy analysis of the Chinese economy, a business-as-usual scenario is first developed assuming no specific policy intervention to limit the growth rate of CO2 emissions. Counter factual policy simulation is then carried out to compute the macroeconomic implications of a carbon tax to limit the Chinese energy-related CO2 emissions. 2 tabs., 5 refs

  20. REDUCING UNCERTAINTIES IN MODEL PREDICTIONS VIA HISTORY MATCHING OF CO2 MIGRATION AND REACTIVE TRANSPORT MODELING OF CO2 FATE AT THE SLEIPNER PROJECT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, Chen

    2015-03-31

    An important question for the Carbon Capture, Storage, and Utility program is “can we adequately predict the CO2 plume migration?” For tracking CO2 plume development, the Sleipner project in the Norwegian North Sea provides more time-lapse seismic monitoring data than any other sites, but significant uncertainties still exist for some of the reservoir parameters. In Part I, we assessed model uncertainties by applying two multi-phase compositional simulators to the Sleipner Benchmark model for the uppermost layer (Layer 9) of the Utsira Sand and calibrated our model against the time-lapsed seismic monitoring data for the site from 1999 to 2010. Approximate match with the observed plume was achieved by introducing lateral permeability anisotropy, adding CH4 into the CO2 stream, and adjusting the reservoir temperatures. Model-predicted gas saturation, CO2 accumulation thickness, and CO2 solubility in brine—none were used as calibration metrics—were all comparable with the interpretations of the seismic data in the literature. In Part II & III, we evaluated the uncertainties of predicted long-term CO2 fate up to 10,000 years, due to uncertain reaction kinetics. Under four scenarios of the kinetic rate laws, the temporal and spatial evolution of CO2 partitioning into the four trapping mechanisms (hydrodynamic/structural, solubility, residual/capillary, and mineral) was simulated with ToughReact, taking into account the CO2-brine-rock reactions and the multi-phase reactive flow and mass transport. Modeling results show that different rate laws for mineral dissolution and precipitation reactions resulted in different predicted amounts of trapped CO2 by carbonate minerals, with scenarios of the conventional linear rate law for feldspar dissolution having twice as much mineral trapping (21% of the injected CO2) as scenarios with a Burch-type or Alekseyev et al.–type rate law for feldspar dissolution (11%). So far, most reactive transport modeling (RTM) studies for

  1. Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nohara, Daisuke; Yoshida, Yoshikatsu; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Ohba, Masamichi

    2013-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO 2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climate and carbon cycle change on CO 2 emission pathways using a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. We design five idealized pathways (including an overshoot scenario for cumulative emissions), each of which levels off to final cumulative emissions of 2000 GtC. The cumulative emissions of the overshoot scenario reach 4000 GtC temporarily, subsequently reducing to 2000 GtC as a result of continuous negative emissions. Although we find that responses of climatic variables and the carbon cycle are largely independent of emission pathways, a much weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected in the overshoot scenario despite cessation of emissions. This weakened AMOC is enhanced by rapid warming in the Arctic region due to considerable temporary elevation of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and induces the decline of surface air temperature and decrease of precipitation over the northern Atlantic and Europe region. Moreover, the weakened AMOC reduces CO 2 uptake by the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. However, the weakened AMOC contributes little to the global carbon cycle. In conclusion, although climate variations have been found to be dependent on emission pathways, the global carbon cycle is relatively independent of these emission pathways, at least superficially. (letter)

  2. Impacts of low-carbon power policy on carbon mitigation in Guangdong Province, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheng, Beibei; Dai, Hancheng; Wang, Peng; Xie, Yang; Chen, Li; Zhao, Daiqing; Masui, Toshihiko

    2016-01-01

    This paper analyzes the impacts of the low-carbon policy in the power sector of Guangdong Province in China on its energy and carbon emission targets by 2020, as well as their costs and co-benefits, using a regional CGE model with seven scenarios: business as usual (BaU), renewable energy (RE), renewable energy and natural gas (RE–NG), CAP only (CAP), CAP and RE–NG (CAP–RE–NG), carbon emission trading (ETS), and ETS with RE–NG (ETS–RE–NG). Analysis results reveal that provincial energy and carbon intensity targets can be achieved in the assumed carbon mitigation scenarios with carbon cap, ETS, and clean energy development policies. While the carbon constraint exerts negative impacts on the economy, GDP loss could be lowered by the ETS and RE policies. The RE scenario is more economically efficient than the ETS scenario, and coupling the RE and ETS scenarios appears to be the most economically efficient scenario to achieve the desired carbon and energy intensity targets. One of the benefits of the low-carbon policy is its improvement of the energy security of Guangdong in terms of reduced reliance on external coal and oil; in particular, Guangdong coal consumption could peak in 2017–2019. - Highlights: • This study analyzes the low carbon policy in the power sector in Guangdong of China. • The role of power sector in achieving carbon and energy intensity target is shown. • Renewable energy and natural gas are very important for Guangdong Province. • Additional efforts in other sectors are needed to achieve the intensity targets. • The mitigation cost and economic impacts are assessed under various policy settings.

  3. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  4. Study on CO2 global recycling system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeuchi, M.; Sakamoto, Y.; Niwa, S.

    2001-01-01

    In order to assist in finding ways to mitigate CO 2 emission and to slow the depletion of fossil fuels we have established and evaluated a representative system, which consists of three technologies developed in our laboratory. These technologies were in CO 2 recovery, hydrogen production and methanol synthesis and in addition we established the necessary supporting systems. Analysis of outline designs of the large scale renewable energy power generation system and this system and energy input for building plant, energy input for running plant has been conducted based on a case using this system for a 1000-MW coal fired power plant, followed by an evaluation of the material balance and energy balance. The results are as follows. Energy efficiency is 34%, the CO 2 reduction rate is 41%, the balance ratio of the energy and CO 2 of the system is 2.2 and 1.8, respectively, on the assumption that the primary renewable energy is solar thermal power generation, the stationary CO 2 emission source is a coal-fired power plant and the generation efficiency of the methanol power plant is 60%. By adopting the system, 3.7 million tons of CO 2 can be recovered, approximately 2.7 million tons of methanol can be produced, and 15.4 billion kWh of electricity can be generated per year. Compared to generating all electrical power using only coal, approximately 2.6 million tons of coal per year can be saved and approximately 2.15 million tons of CO 2 emission can be reduced. Therefore, it is clearly revealed that this system would be effective to reduce CO 2 emissions and to utilize renewable energy

  5. Main drivers of changes in CO_2 emissions in the Spanish economy: A structural decomposition analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cansino, José M.; Román, Rocío; Ordóñez, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this paper is the analysis of structural decomposition of changes in CO_2 emissions in Spain by using an enhanced Structural Decomposition Analysis (SDA) supported by detailed Input–Output tables from the World Input–Output Database (2013) (WIOD) for the period 1995–2009. The decomposition of changes in CO_2 emissions at sectoral level are broken down into six effects: carbonization, energy intensity, technology, structural demand, consumption pattern and scale. The results are interesting, not only for researchers but also for utility companies and policy-makers as soon as past and current political mitigation measures are analyzed in line with such results. The results allow us to conclude that the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol together with European Directives related to the promotion of RES seem to have a positive impact on CO_2 emissions trends in Spain. After reviewing the current mitigation measures in Spain, one policy recommendation is suggested to avoid the rebound effect and to enhance the fight against Climate Change that is tax benefits for those companies that prove reductions in their energy intensity ratios. - Highlights: • Kyoto's Protocol and European Directives acted against CO_2 emissions in Spain. • Changes in primary energy mix acted against increasing CO_2 emissions. • Energy efficiency seems to have improved. • Historical analysis gives support for most mitigation measures currently in force.

  6. Have We Overestimated Saline Aquifer CO2 Storage Capacities?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thibeau, S.; Mucha, V.

    2011-01-01

    During future, large scale CO 2 geological storage in saline aquifers, fluid pressure is expected to rise as a consequence of CO 2 injection, but the pressure build up will have to stay below specified values to ensure a safe and long term containment of the CO 2 in the storage site. The pressure build up is the result of two different effects. The first effect is a local overpressure around the injectors, which is due to the high CO 2 velocities around the injectors, and which can be mitigated by adding CO 2 injectors. The second effect is a regional scale pressure build up that will take place if the storage aquifer is closed or if the formation water that flows away from the pressurised area is not large enough to compensate volumetrically the CO 2 injection. This second effect cannot be mitigated by adding additional injectors. In the first section of this paper, we review some major global and regional assessments of CO 2 storage capacities in deep saline aquifers, in term of mass and storage efficiency. These storage capacities are primarily based on a volumetric approach: storage capacity is the volumetric sum of the CO 2 that can be stored through various trapping mechanisms. We then discuss in Section 2 storage efficiencies derived from a pressure build up approach, as stated in the CO2STORE final report (Chadwick A. et al. (eds) (2008) Best Practice for the Storage of CO 2 in Saline Aquifers, Observations and Guidelines from the SACS and CO2STORE Projects, Keyworth, Nottingham, BGS Occasional Publication No. 14) and detailed by Van der Meer and Egberts (van der Meer L.G.H., Egberts P.J.P. (2008) A General Method for Calculating Subsurface CO 2 Storage Capacity, OTC Paper 19309, presented at the OTC Conference held in Houston, Texas, USA, 5-8 May). A quantitative range of such storage efficiency is presented, based on a review of orders of magnitudes of pore and water compressibilities and allowable pressure increase. To illustrate the relevance of this

  7. Research Project on CO2 Geological Storage and Groundwater Resources: Water Quality Effects Caused by CO2 Intrusion into Shallow Groundwater

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birkholzer, Jens; Apps, John; Zheng, Liange; Zhang, Yingqi; Xu, Tianfu; Tsang, Chin-Fu

    2008-10-01

    One promising approach to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is injecting CO{sub 2} into suitable geologic formations, typically depleted oil/gas reservoirs or saline formations at depth larger than 800 m. Proper site selection and management of CO{sub 2} storage projects will ensure that the risks to human health and the environment are low. However, a risk remains that CO{sub 2} could migrate from a deep storage formation, e.g. via local high-permeability pathways such as permeable faults or degraded wells, and arrive in shallow groundwater resources. The ingress of CO{sub 2} is by itself not typically a concern to the water quality of an underground source of drinking water (USDW), but it will change the geochemical conditions in the aquifer and will cause secondary effects mainly induced by changes in pH, in particular the mobilization of hazardous inorganic constituents present in the aquifer minerals. Identification and assessment of these potential effects is necessary to analyze risks associated with geologic sequestration of CO{sub 2}. This report describes a systematic evaluation of the possible water quality changes in response to CO{sub 2} intrusion into aquifers currently used as sources of potable water in the United States. Our goal was to develop a general understanding of the potential vulnerability of United States potable groundwater resources in the event of CO{sub 2} leakage. This goal was achieved in two main tasks, the first to develop a comprehensive geochemical model representing typical conditions in many freshwater aquifers (Section 3), the second to conduct a systematic reactive-transport modeling study to quantify the effect of CO{sub 2} intrusion into shallow aquifers (Section 4). Via reactive-transport modeling, the amount of hazardous constituents potentially mobilized by the ingress of CO{sub 2} was determined, the fate and migration of these constituents in the groundwater was predicted, and the likelihood that drinking water

  8. Extended blackout mitigation strategy for PWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prošek, Andrej; Volkanovski, Andrija

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Equipment for mitigation of the extended blackout is investigated. • Analysis is done with deterministic safety analysis methods. • Strategy to prevent core heatup and not overfill steam generator is proposed. • Six types of reactor coolant system loss scenarios are investigated. • Pump flowrates and available start time to feed steam generators is determined. - Abstract: The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant demonstrated the vulnerability of the plants on the loss of electrical power and loss of the ultimate heat sink events. A set of measures are proposed and currently implemented in response of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Those measures include diverse and flexible mitigation strategies that increase the defence-in-depth for beyond-design-basis scenarios. Mitigation strategies are based on the utilization of the portable equipment to provide power and water to the nuclear power plants in order to maintain or restore key safety functions. The verification of the proposed measures with the plant specific safety analyses is endorsed in the mitigation strategies. This paper investigates utilization of the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump (TD-AFW) or portable water injection pump for the mitigation of the event of loss of all alternate current sources and batteries (extended station blackout). Methodology for assessment of the required pump injection flow rate with the application of the standard deterministic safety analysis code is developed and presented. The required injection rate to the steam generators is calculated from the cumulative water mass injected by the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump in the analysed scenarios, when desired normal level is maintained automatically. The developed methodology allows assessment of the required injections rates of pump, TD-AFW or portable, for different plant configurations and number of flow rate changes. The methodology is applied

  9. Extended blackout mitigation strategy for PWR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Prošek, Andrej, E-mail: andrej.prosek@ijs.si; Volkanovski, Andrija, E-mail: andrija.volkanovski@ijs.si

    2015-12-15

    Highlights: • Equipment for mitigation of the extended blackout is investigated. • Analysis is done with deterministic safety analysis methods. • Strategy to prevent core heatup and not overfill steam generator is proposed. • Six types of reactor coolant system loss scenarios are investigated. • Pump flowrates and available start time to feed steam generators is determined. - Abstract: The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant demonstrated the vulnerability of the plants on the loss of electrical power and loss of the ultimate heat sink events. A set of measures are proposed and currently implemented in response of the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. Those measures include diverse and flexible mitigation strategies that increase the defence-in-depth for beyond-design-basis scenarios. Mitigation strategies are based on the utilization of the portable equipment to provide power and water to the nuclear power plants in order to maintain or restore key safety functions. The verification of the proposed measures with the plant specific safety analyses is endorsed in the mitigation strategies. This paper investigates utilization of the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump (TD-AFW) or portable water injection pump for the mitigation of the event of loss of all alternate current sources and batteries (extended station blackout). Methodology for assessment of the required pump injection flow rate with the application of the standard deterministic safety analysis code is developed and presented. The required injection rate to the steam generators is calculated from the cumulative water mass injected by the turbine driven auxiliary feedwater pump in the analysed scenarios, when desired normal level is maintained automatically. The developed methodology allows assessment of the required injections rates of pump, TD-AFW or portable, for different plant configurations and number of flow rate changes. The methodology is applied

  10. Regional impacts of climate change and atmospheric CO2 on future ocean carbon uptake: A multi-model linear feedback analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Tilla; Bopp Laurent; Gehlen Marion; Schneider Birgitt; Cadule Patricia; Frölicher Thomas; Segschneider Jochen; Tijputra Jerry; Heinze Christoph; Joos Fortunat

    2011-01-01

    The increase in atmospheric CO2 over this century depends on the evolution of the oceanic air–sea CO2 uptake which will be driven by the combined response to rising atmospheric CO2 itself and climate change. Here the future oceanic CO2 uptake is simulated using an ensemble of coupled climate–carbon cycle models. The models are driven by CO2 emissions from historical data and the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 high emission scenario. A linear feedback analysis successfully sep...

  11. Linearity between temperature peak and bio-energy CO2 emission rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cherubini, Francesco; Bright, Ryan M.; Stromman, Anders H.; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe

    2014-01-01

    Many future energy and emission scenarios envisage an increase of bio-energy in the global primary energy mix. In most climate impact assessment models and policies, bio-energy systems are assumed to be carbon neutral, thus ignoring the time lag between CO 2 emissions from biomass combustion and CO 2 uptake by vegetation. Here, we show that the temperature peak caused by CO 2 emissions from bio-energy is proportional to the maximum rate at which emissions occur and is almost insensitive to cumulative emissions. Whereas the carbon-climate response (CCR) to fossil fuel emissions is approximately constant, the CCR to bio-energy emissions depends on time, biomass turnover times, and emission scenarios. The linearity between temperature peak and bio-energy CO 2 emission rates resembles the characteristic of the temperature response to short-lived climate forcers. As for the latter, the timing of CO 2 emissions from bio-energy matters. Under the international agreement to limit global warming to 2 C by 2100, early emissions from bio-energy thus have smaller contributions on the targeted temperature than emissions postponed later into the future, especially when bio-energy is sourced from biomass with medium (50-60 years) or long turnover times (100 years). (authors)

  12. Climate change mitigation through livestock system transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Havlík, Petr; Valin, Hugo; Herrero, Mario; Obersteiner, Michael; Schmid, Erwin; Rufino, Mariana C.; Mosnier, Aline; Thornton, Philip K.; Böttcher, Hannes; Conant, Richard T.; Frank, Stefan; Fritz, Steffen; Fuss, Sabine; Kraxner, Florian; Notenbaert, An

    2014-01-01

    Livestock are responsible for 12% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Sustainable intensification of livestock production systems might become a key climate mitigation technology. However, livestock production systems vary substantially, making the implementation of climate mitigation policies a formidable challenge. Here, we provide results from an economic model using a detailed and high-resolution representation of livestock production systems. We project that by 2030 autonomous transitions toward more efficient systems would decrease emissions by 736 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (MtCO2e⋅y−1), mainly through avoided emissions from the conversion of 162 Mha of natural land. A moderate mitigation policy targeting emissions from both the agricultural and land-use change sectors with a carbon price of US$10 per tCO2e could lead to an abatement of 3,223 MtCO2e⋅y−1. Livestock system transitions would contribute 21% of the total abatement, intra- and interregional relocation of livestock production another 40%, and all other mechanisms would add 39%. A comparable abatement of 3,068 MtCO2e⋅y−1 could be achieved also with a policy targeting only emissions from land-use change. Stringent climate policies might lead to reductions in food availability of up to 200 kcal per capita per day globally. We find that mitigation policies targeting emissions from land-use change are 5 to 10 times more efficient—measured in “total abatement calorie cost”—than policies targeting emissions from livestock only. Thus, fostering transitions toward more productive livestock production systems in combination with climate policies targeting the land-use change appears to be the most efficient lever to deliver desirable climate and food availability outcomes. PMID:24567375

  13. Influence of European passenger cars weight to exhaust CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zervas, Efthimios; Lazarou, Christos

    2008-01-01

    The increase of atmospheric CO 2 concentration influences climate changes. The road transport sector is one of the main anthropogenic sources of CO 2 emissions in the European Union (EU). One of the main parameters influencing CO 2 emissions from passenger cars (PCs) is their weight, which increases during last years. For the same driving distance, heavier vehicles need more work than lighter ones, because they have to move an extra weight, and thus more fuel is consumed and thus increased CO 2 emissions. The weight control of new PCs could be an efficient way to control their CO 2 emissions. After an analysis of the EU new PCs market, their segment distribution and their weight, some estimations for 2020 are presented. Based on this analysis, 13 base scenarios using several ways for the control of the weight of future European new PCs are used to estimate their CO 2 emissions and the benefit of each scenario. The results show that a significant benefit on CO 2 emissions could be achieved if the weight of each PC does not exceed an upper limit, especially if this limit is quite low. The benefit obtained by limitations of weight is higher than the benefit obtained from the expected decreased future fuel consumption. Similar results are obtained when the weight of new PCs does not exceed an upper limit within each segment, or when the weight of each new PC decreases. (author)

  14. CO2 emission scenarios for next centuries to obtain more complete simulations of the global warming; Scenari globali di emissione a lungo termine di CO2 per una simulazione piu' completa dell'effetto serra

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michelini, M. [ENEA, Divisione Sistemi Energetici per la Mobilita' e l' Habitat, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy)

    2001-07-01

    In the framework of a punctual Modeling of the Greenhouse Effect (report RT/ERG/2001/1) it is necessary to set CO2 Emission Scenarios for the next Centuries in order to obtain the complete evolution of the global warming. Some methodologies are described to approach such long term previsions. From the demand side, the growth of the consumes (which are affected by population and development) is correlated (supply side) with the technical-economic-environmental Evaluation of the future diffusion of classic sources (experienced in the past centuries) and of new Technologies and renewable sources. The previsions of the world population Growth are derived from the UNFPA publications. The degree of economic Development of the world Population in the very long term is obtained by simulating the Evolution of the Population across four main Areas characterized by different pro-capita consumes. Using these criteria two different Scenarios have been set-up and put into comparison with the SRES Scenarios published in the Third Assessment Report-WG1 of the IPCC. The cut at the year 2100 of the SRES Scenarios is also discussed. Simulations of the Global Warming in the long term have been performed with the two scenarios. These results are discussed together with the results of the Simulations reported by IPCC. [Italian] Nell'ambito della elaborazione di un modello puntuale per la simulazione del riscaldamento globale conseguente all'effetto serra, (rapporto tecnico RT/ERG/2001/1), viene ripresa la problematica degli scenari di emissione di CO2 per alcuni secoli al fine di poter studiare l'intera evoluzione del fenomeno. Per superare le difficolta' insite nelle previsioni riferite a un futuro tanto lontano, vengono indicate alcune metodologie. Dal lato domanda i principali fattori di crescita dei consumi (cioe' popolazione e sviluppo economico) vengono posti a confronto (lato offerta) con le modalita' di diffusione delle singole fonti desunte dai

  15. CO2 emissions, nuclear energy, renewable energy and economic growth in the US

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Menyah, Kojo; Wolde-Rufael, Yemane

    2010-01-01

    This study explores the causal relationship between carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions, renewable and nuclear energy consumption and real GDP for the US for the period 1960-2007. Using a modified version of the Granger causality test, we found a unidirectional causality running from nuclear energy consumption to CO 2 emissions without feedback but no causality running from renewable energy to CO 2 emissions. The econometric evidence seems to suggest that nuclear energy consumption can help to mitigate CO 2 emissions, but so far, renewable energy consumption has not reached a level where it can make a significant contribution to emissions reduction.

  16. Uncertainties in relation to CO2 capture and sequestration. Preliminary results. Working Paper

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gielen, D.

    2003-03-01

    This paper has been presented at an expert meeting on CO2 capture technology learning at the IEA headquarters, January 24th, 2003. The electricity sector is a key source of CO2 emissions and a strong increase of emissions is forecast in a business-as-usual scenario. A range of strategies have been proposed to reduce these emissions. This paper focuses on one of the promising strategies, CO2 capture and storage. The future role of CO2 capture in the electricity sector has been assessed, using the Energy Technology Perspectives model (ETP). Technology data have been collected and reviewed in cooperation with the IEA Greenhouse Gas R and D implementing agreement and other expert groups. CO2 capture and sequestration is based on relatively new technology. Therefore, its characteristics and its future role in the energy system is subject to uncertainties, as for any new technology. The analysis suggests that the choice of a reference electricity production technology and the characteristics of the CO2 storage option constitute the two main uncertainties, apart from a large number of other factors of lesser importance. Based on the choices made cost estimates can range from less than zero USD for coal fired power plants to more than 150 USD per ton of CO2 for gas fired power plants. The results suggest that learning effects are important, but they do not affect the CO2 capture costs significantly, other uncertainties dominate the cost estimates. The ETP model analysis, where choices are based on the ideal market hypothesis and rational price based decision making, suggest up to 18% of total global electricity production will be equipped with CO2 capture by 2040, in case of a penalty of 50 US$ per ton of CO2. However this high penetration is only achieved in case coal fired IGCC-SOFC power plants are developed successfully. Without such technology only a limited amount of CO2 is captured from gas fired power plants. Higher penalties may result in a higher share of CO2

  17. Potential and economics of CO{sub 2} sequestration; Sequestration du CO{sub 2}: faisabilite et cout

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jean-Baptiste, Ph.; Ciais, Ph.; Orr, J. [CEA Saclay, 91 - Gif sur Yvette (France). Direction des Sciences de la Matiere; Ducroux, R. [Centre d' Initiative et de Recherche sur l' Energie et l' Environnement, CIRENE, 91 - Palaiseau (France)

    2001-07-01

    Increasing atmospheric level of greenhouse gases are causing global warming and putting at risk the global climate system. The main anthropogenic greenhouse gas is CO{sub 2}. Some techniques could be used to reduced CO{sub 2} emission and stabilize atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration, including i) energy savings and energy efficiency, ii) switch to lower carbon content fuels (natural gas) and use energy sources with zero CO{sub 2} emissions such as renewable or nuclear energy, iii) capture and store CO{sub 2} from fossil fuels combustion, and enhance the natural sinks for CO{sub 2} (forests, soils, ocean...). The purpose of this report is to provide an overview of the technology and cost for capture and storage of CO{sub 2} and to review the various options for CO{sub 2} sequestration by enhancing natural carbon sinks. Some of the factors which will influence application, including environmental impact, cost and efficiency, are discussed. Capturing CO{sub 2} and storing it in underground geological reservoirs appears as the best environmentally acceptable option. It can be done with existing technology, however, substantial R and D is needed to improve available technology and to lower the cost. Applicable to large CO{sub 2} emitting industrial facilities such as power plants, cement factories, steel industry, etc., which amount to about 30% of the global anthropic CO{sub 2} emission, it represents a valuable tool in the baffle against global warming. About 50% of the anthropic CO{sub 2} is being naturally absorbed by the biosphere and the ocean. The 'natural assistance' provided by these two large carbon reservoirs to the mitigation of climate change is substantial. The existing natural sinks could be enhanced by deliberate action. Given the known and likely environmental consequences, which could be very damaging indeed, enhancing ocean sinks does not appears as a satisfactory option. In contrast, the promotion of land sinks through demonstrated carbon

  18. Geological Storage of CO2. Site Selection Criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz, C.; Martinez, R.; Recreo, F.; Prado, P.; Campos, R.; Pelayo, M.; Losa, A. de la; Hurtado, A.; Lomba, L.; Perez del Villar, L.; Ortiz, G.; Sastre, J.; Zapatero, M. A.; Suarez, I.; Arenillas, A.

    2007-01-01

    In year 2002 the Spanish Parliament unanimously passed the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, signed December 1997, compromising to limiting the greenhouse gas emissions increase. Later on, the Environment Ministry submitted the Spanish National Assignment Emissions Plan to the European Union and in year 2005 the Spanish Greenhouse Gas market started working, establishing taxes to pay in case of exceeding the assigned emissions limits. So, the avoided emissions of CO2 have now an economic value that is promoting new anthropogenic CO2 emissions reduction technologies. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are among these new technological developments for mitigating or eliminate climate change. CO2 can be stored in geological formations such as depleted oil or gas fields, deep permeable saline water saturated formations and unmailable coal seams, among others. This report seeks to establish the selection criteria for suitable geological formations for CO2 storage in the Spanish national territory, paying attention to both the operational and performance requirements of these storage systems. The report presents the physical and chemical properties and performance of CO2 under storage conditions, the transport and reaction processes of both supercritical and gaseous CO2, and CO2 trapping mechanisms in geological formations. The main part of the report is devoted to geological criteria at watershed, site and formation scales. (Author) 100 refs

  19. Geological Storage of CO2. Site Selection Criteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruiz, C.; Martinez, R.; Recreo, F.; Prado, P.; Campos, R.; Pelayo, M.; Losa, A. de la; Hurtado, A.; Lomba, L.; Perez del Villar, L.; Ortiz, G.; Sastre, J.

    2006-01-01

    In year 2002 the Spanish Parliament unanimously passed the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol, signed December 1997, compromising to limiting the greenhouse gas emissions increase. Later on, the Environment Ministry submitted the Spanish National Assignment Emissions Plan to the European Union and in year 2005 the Spanish Greenhouse Gas market started working, establishing taxes to pay in case of exceeding the assigned emissions limits. So, the avoided emissions of CO2 have now an economic value that is promoting new anthropogenic CO2 emissions reduction technologies. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) are among these new technological developments for mitigating or eliminate climate change. CO2 can be stored in geological formations such as depleted oil or gas fields, deep permeable saline water saturated formations and unmineable coal seams, among others. This report seeks to establish the selection criteria for suitable geological formations for CO2 storage in the Spanish national territory, paying attention to both the operational and performance requirements of these storage systems. The report presents the physical and chemical properties and performance of CO2 under storage conditions, the transport and reaction processes of both supercritical and gaseous CO2, and CO2 trapping mechanisms in geological formations. The main part of the report is devoted to geological criteria at watershed, site and formation scales. (Author) 100 ref

  20. Natural Analogues of CO2 Geological Storage; Analogos Naturales del Almacenamiento Geologico de CO2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Perez del Villar, L; Pelayo, M; Recreo, F

    2007-07-20

    Geological storage of carbon dioxide is nowadays, internationally considered as the most effective method for greenhouse gas emission mitigation, in order to minimize the global climate change universally accepted. Nevertheless, the possible risks derived of this long-term storage have a direct influence on its public acceptance. Among the favourable geological formations to store CO2, depleted oil and gas fields, deep saline reservoirs, and unamiable coal seams are highlighted. One of the most important objectives of the R and D projects related to the CO2 geological storage is the evaluation of the CO2 leakage rate through the above mentioned geological formations. Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to increase our knowledge on the interaction among CO2, storage and sealing formations, as well as on the flow paths and the physical resistance of the sealing formation. The quantification of the CO2 leakage rate is essential to evaluate the effects on the human and animal health, as well as for the ecosystem and water quality. To achieve these objectives, the study of the natural analogues is very useful in order to know the natural leakage rate to the atmosphere, its flow paths, the physical, chemical and mineralogical modifications due to the long term interaction processes among the CO2 and the storage and sealing formations, as well as the effects on the groundwaters and ecosystems. In this report, we have tried to summarise the main characteristics of the natural reservoirs and surficial sources of CO2, which are both natural analogues of the geological storage and CO2 leakage, studied in EEUU, Europe and Australia. The main objective of this summary is to find the possible applications for long-term risk prediction and for the performance assessment by means of conceptual and numerical modelling, which will allow to validate the predictive models of the CO2 storage behaviour, to design and develop suitable monitoring techniques to control the CO2 behaviour

  1. Modeling the greenhouse gas budget of straw returning in China: feasibility of mitigation and countermeasures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Fei; Wang, Xiao-Ke; Han, Bing; Ouyang, Zhi-Yun; Zheng, Hua

    2010-05-01

    Straw returning is considered to be one of the most promising carbon sequestration measures in China's cropland. A compound model, namely "Straw Returning and Burning Model-Expansion" (SRBME), was built to estimate the net mitigation potential, economic benefits, and air pollutant reduction of straw returning. Three scenarios, that is, baseline, "full popularization of straw returning (FP)," and "full popularization of straw returning and precision fertilization (FP + P)," were set to reflect popularization of straw returning. The results of the SRBME indicated that (1) compared with the soil carbon sequestration of 13.37 Tg/yr, the net mitigation potentials, which were 6.328 Tg/yr for the FP scenario and 9.179 Tg/yr for the FP + P scenario, had different trends when the full budget of the greenhouse gases was considered; (2) when the feasibility in connection with greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, economic benefits, and environmental benefits was taken into consideration, straw returning was feasible in 15 provinces in the FP scenario, with a total net mitigation potential of 7.192 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 1.473 billion (USD 216.6 million); (3) in the FP + P scenario, with the implementation of precision fertilization, straw returning was feasible in 26 provinces with a total net mitigation potential of 10.39 TgCe/yr and the total benefits of CNY 5.466 billion (USD 803.8 million); (4) any extent of change in the treatment of straw from being burnt to being returned would contribute to air pollution reduction; (5) some countermeasures, such as CH(4) reduction in rice paddies, precision fertilization, financial support, education and propaganda, would promote the feasibility of straw returning as a mitigation measure.

  2. Automobile technology in a CO{sub 2}-constrained world

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kypreos, S; Barreto Gomez, L; Dietrich, Ph [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland); Schafer, A; Jacoby, H D [MIT, Cambridge (United States)

    1999-08-01

    This study identifies the environmental conditions under which less CO{sub 2}-emitting and more expensive automobile technology might enter the North American transportation sector. For that purpose, different exogenous CO{sub 2}-reduction targets are imposed and the resulting market shares of hypothetical future automobile technologies calculated. The criteria for the selection of different types of automobiles/fuels is the minimisation of discounted, cumulative transport sector costs over the scenario time horizon. (author) 1 tab., 6 refs.

  3. Greenhouse gas emissions from high demand, natural gas-intensive energy scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Victor, D.G.

    1990-01-01

    Since coal and oil emit 70% and 30% more CO 2 per unit of energy than natural gas (methane), fuel switching to natural gas is an obvious pathway to lower CO 2 emissions and reduced theorized greenhouse warming. However, methane is, itself, a strong greenhouse gas so the CO 2 advantages of natural gas may be offset by leaks in the natural gas recovery and supply system. Simple models of atmospheric CO 2 and methane are used to test this hypothesis for several natural gas-intensive energy scenarios, including the work of Ausubel et al (1988). It is found that the methane leaks are significant and may increase the total 'greenhouse effect' from natural gas-intensive energy scenarios by 10%. Furthermore, because methane is short-lived in the atmosphere, leaking methane from natural gas-intensive, high energy growth scenarios effectively recharges the concentration of atmospheric methane continuously. For such scenarios, the problem of methane leaks is even more serious. A second objective is to explore some high demand scenarios that describe the role of methane leaks in the greenhouse tradeoff between gas and coal as energy sources. It is found that the uncertainty in the methane leaks from the natural gas system are large enough to consume the CO 2 advantages from using natural gas instead of coal for 20% of the market share. (author)

  4. Developments in greenhouse gas emissions and net energy use in Danish agriculture - How to achieve substantial CO2 reductions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dalgaard, T.; Olesen, J.E.; Petersen, S.O.; Petersen, B.M.; Jorgensen, U.; Kristensen, T.; Hutchings, N.J.; Gyldenkaerne, S.; Hermansen, J.E.

    2011-01-01

    Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture are a significant contributor to total Danish emissions. Consequently, much effort is currently given to the exploration of potential strategies to reduce agricultural emissions. This paper presents results from a study estimating agricultural GHG emissions in the form of methane, nitrous oxide and carbon dioxide (including carbon sources and sinks, and the impact of energy consumption/bioenergy production) from Danish agriculture in the years 1990-2010. An analysis of possible measures to reduce the GHG emissions indicated that a 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable, including mitigation measures in relation to the handling of manure and fertilisers, optimization of animal feeding, cropping practices, and land use changes with more organic farming, afforestation and energy crops. In addition, the bioenergy production may be increased significantly without reducing the food production, whereby Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance. - Highlights: → GHG emissions from Danish agriculture 1990-2010 are calculated, including carbon sequestration. → Effects of measures to further reduce GHG emissions are listed. → Land use scenarios for a substantially reduced GHG emission by 2050 are presented. → A 50-70% reduction of agricultural emissions by 2050 relative to 1990 is achievable. → Via bioenergy production Danish agriculture could achieve a positive energy balance. - Scenario studies of greenhouse gas mitigation measures illustrate the possible realization of CO 2 reductions for Danish agriculture by 2050, sustaining current food production.

  5. Estimation of CO2 Transport Costs in South Korea Using a Techno-Economic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kwangu Kang

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available In this study, a techno–economic model was used to calculate the costs of CO2 transport and specify the major equipment required for transport in order to demonstrate and implement CO2 sequestration in the offshore sediments of South Korea. First, three different carbon capture and storage demonstration scenarios were set up involving the use of three CO2 capture plants and one offshore storage site. Each transport scenario considered both the pipeline transport and ship transport options. The temperature and pressure conditions of CO2 in each transport stage were determined from engineering and economic viewpoints, and the corresponding specifications and equipment costs were calculated. The transport costs for a 1 MtCO2/year transport rate were estimated to be US$33/tCO2 and US$28/tCO2 for a pipeline transport of ~530 km and ship transport of ~724 km, respectively. Through the economies of scale effect, the pipeline and ship transport costs for a transport rate of 3 MtCO2/year were reduced to approximately US$21/tCO2 and US$23/tCO2, respectively. A CO2 hub terminal did not significantly reduce the cost because of the short distance from the hub to the storage site and the small number of captured sources.

  6. Optimal production resource reallocation for CO2 emissions reduction in manufacturing sectors

    OpenAIRE

    Fujii, Hidemichi; Managi, Shunsuke

    2015-01-01

    To mitigate the effects of climate change, countries worldwide are advancing technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes and measures optimal production resource reallocation using data envelopment analysis. This research attempts to clarify the effect of optimal production resource reallocation on CO2 emissions reduction, focusing on regional and industrial characteristics. We use finance, energy, and CO2 emissions data from 13 industrial sectors in 39 countries from...

  7. Identify: Improving industrial energy efficiency and mitigating global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lazarus, M.; Hill, D.; Cornland, D.W.; Heaps, C.; Hippel, D. von; Williams, R.

    1997-01-01

    The use of energy in the industrial sectors of nations with both industrialized and developing economies will continue to be, a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly carbon dioxide. The patterns of industrial-sector energy use--energy provided primarily by the combustion of fossil fuels-have shifted both within the between countries in recent decades. Projections of future energy use and carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions suggest continued shifts in these patterns, as industrial production in developed countries stabilizes and declines, while industrial output in the developing world continues to expand. This expansion of industrial-sector activity and CO 2 emissions in developing countries presents both a challenge and an opportunity. To seize this opportunity and contribute to international efforts to mitigate global climate change, the United National Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) recently initiated a two-phase effort to help improve the efficiency of energy-intensive industries (iron and steel, chemicals, refining, paper and pulp, and cement) in developing countries. As part of the Phase I, the authors reviewed industrial sector scenarios and to initiated development of a software-based toolkit for identifying and assessing GHG mitigating technologies. This toolkit, called IDENTIFY, is comprised of a technology inventory and a companion economic analysis tool. In addition, UNIDO commissioned institutions in India, South Africa, and Argentina to review energy use patterns and savings opportunities in selected industries across nine developing countries, and contribute to the development of the IDENTIFY toolkit. UNIDO is now preparing to launch Phase 2, which will focus on full development and dissemination of the IDENTIFY toolkit through seminars and case studies around the world. This paper describes Phase 1 of the UNIDO project

  8. Future energy and emissions policy scenarios in Ireland for private car transport

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daly, Hannah E.; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we use a technological model of Ireland's future car stock to simulate the impact of a range of policy measures on the baseline trend in energy demand in the period to 2030. The policies and measures modelled comprise meeting deployment targets for electric vehicles and compressed natural gas vehicles, an EU regulation for the improvement of vehicle efficiency, implementation of a national biofuel obligation, as well as several behavioural measures (encouraging modal shifting and reduced travel demand). The impact of the different measures simulated is measured in terms of their contribution to meeting Ireland's ambitious targets for energy savings, for renewable energy penetration and for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions. The results point to a possible improvement of 32% in car stock efficiency, the achievement of 7.8% renewable energy share of road and rail transport and a 22% reduction in non-ETS private car CO 2 emissions relative to 2009 levels. A scenario analysis on meeting the EV penetration target shows a significant range of CO 2 emissions reductions depending on the cars (and mileage) displaced and on the electricity generation portfolio. - Highlights: ► Private car policy scenarios for Ireland modelled. ► Impact of vehicle efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural measures evaluated. ► Highlights distance to EU non-ETS emissions and renewable energy targets. ► Analysis of EV target shows that GHG mitigation potential is very sensitive.

  9. Reducing CO2 emissions in Sierra Leone and Ghana

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, O.

    1991-01-01

    With soring population growth rates and minimal economic growth, the nations of Africa are afflicted with innumerable problems. Why then should Africa's developing countries worry about CO 2 emissions? First, because agricultural activities form the backbone of most African economies; thus, these nations may be particularly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate change. Second, acting to reduce carbon emissions will bring about more efficient energy use. All of Africa could benefit from the improved use of energy. Finally, the accumulation of CO 2 in the atmosphere is a global problem with individual solutions; in order to reduce international emissions, all countries, including those in Africa, must contribute. Typical of many African countries, Ghana and Sierra Leone have among the lowest levels of energy demand per capita across the globe. primary energy demand per capita in these two West African nations equals about one quarter of the world's average and about one twentieth of the US average. This work summarizes the results of two long-term energy use and carbon emissions scenarios for Sierra Leone and Ghana. In the high emissions (HE) scenario for 2025, policy changes focused on galvanizing economic growth lead to significant increases in energy use and carbon emissions in Ghana and Sierra Leone between 1985 and 2025. In the low emissions (LE) scenario, the implementation of policies aimed specifically at curtailing CO 2 emissions significantly limits the increase in carbon in both nations by 2025

  10. Carbon deposition and sulfur poisoning during CO2 electrolysis in nickel-based solid oxide cell electrodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skafte, Theis Løye; Blennow, Peter; Hjelm, Johan; Graves, Christopher

    2018-01-01

    Reduction of CO2 to CO and O2 in the solid oxide electrolysis cell (SOEC) has the potential to play a crucial role in closing the CO2 loop. Carbon deposition in nickel-based cells is however fatal and must be considered during CO2 electrolysis. Here, the effect of operating parameters is investigated systematically using simple current-potential experiments. Due to variations of local conditions, it is shown that higher current density and lower fuel electrode porosity will cause local carbon formation at the electrochemical reaction sites despite operating with a CO outlet concentration outside the thermodynamic carbon formation region. Attempts at mitigating the issue by coating the composite nickel/yttria-stabilized zirconia electrode with carbon-inhibiting nanoparticles and by sulfur passivation proved unsuccessful. Increasing the fuel electrode porosity is shown to mitigate the problem, but only to a certain extent. This work shows that a typical SOEC stack converting CO2 to CO and O2 is limited to as little as 15-45% conversion due to risk of carbon formation. Furthermore, cells operated in CO2-electrolysis mode are poisoned by reactant gases containing ppb-levels of sulfur, in contrast to ppm-levels for operation in fuel cell mode.

  11. CO2 reduction: is increasing the diesel share the way to go?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rijkeboer, R.C.; Havenith, C.; Baarbe, H.L.

    1998-01-01

    Different scenarios have been compared for the future reduction of CO2-emission under real-world driving conditions. A significant shift towards diesel appears hardly to benefit the CO2 but would carry a real NOx penalty. Introduction of DI petrol engines and a shift towards gaseous fuels for s.i.

  12. CO2 leakage-induced vegetation decline is primarily driven by decreased soil O2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xueyan; Ma, Xin; Zhao, Zhi; Wu, Yang; Li, Yue

    2016-04-15

    To assess the potential risks of carbon capture and storage (CCS), studies have focused on vegetation decline caused by leaking CO2. Excess soil CO2 caused by leakage can affect soil O2 concentrations and soil pH, but how these two factors affect plant development remains poorly understood. This hinders the selection of appropriate species to mitigate potential negative consequences of CCS. Through pot experiments, we simulated CO2 leakage to examine its effects on soil pH and soil O2 concentrations. We subsequently assessed how maize growth responded to these changes in soil pH and O2. Decreased soil O2 concentrations significantly reduced maize biomass, and explained 69% of the biomass variation under CO2 leakage conditions. In contrast, although leaked CO2 changed soil pH significantly (from 7.32 to 6.75), it remained within the optimum soil pH range for maize growth. This suggests that soil O2 concentration, not soil pH, influences plant growth in these conditions. Therefore, in case of potential CO2 leakage risks, hypoxia-tolerant species should be chosen to improve plant survival, growth, and yield. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Scenarios for sustainable heat supply and heat savings in municipalities - the case of Helsingør, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Amer-Allam, Sara; Münster, Marie; Petrovic, Stefan

    2017-01-01

    Local climate action is not only a domain of large cities, but also smaller urban areas that increasingly address climate change mitigation in their policy. The Danish municipality of Helsingør can achieve a substantial CO2 emissions reduction by transforming its heat supply and deploying heat...... savings. In this paper, we model the heating system of Helsingør, assess it from a simple socio- and private-economic perspective, develop future scenarios, and conduct an iterative process to derive a cost-optimal mix between district heating, individual heating and heat savings. The results show...... of heating and/or cooling supply for different demand configurations, geographical region and scale....

  14. Total soil C and N sequestration in a grassland following 10 years of free air CO2 enrichment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kessel, van C.; Boots, B.; Graaff, de M.A.; Harris, D.; Blum, H.; Six, J.

    2006-01-01

    Soil C sequestration may mitigate rising levels of atmospheric CO2. However, it has yet to be determined whether net soil C sequestration occurs in N-rich grasslands exposed to long-term elevated CO2. This study examined whether N-fertilized grasslands exposed to elevated CO2 sequestered additional

  15. Divide by 4 the emissions: the Negatep scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P.

    2007-01-01

    The Negatep scenario is proposed in the framework of the french energy policy, aiming to divide by 4 the CO 2 emissions for 2050. After an evaluation of the today situation concerning the energy consumption and needs, the scenario proposes some ways of energy conservation in different sectors, other energy sources in place of the fossil fuels, the energy needs by sectors. The last part of the document provides the main consumption posts, the CO 2 releases and the approach. (A.L.B.)

  16. Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in future scenarios: atmospheric energy and water balance perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Alessandri

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen the hydrological cycle during the 21st century (21C. We analyze the strengthening of the global-scale increase in precipitation from the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy balances. By combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere, we obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. We investigate the differences in the strengthening of the hydrological cycle in two centennial simulations performed with an Earth system model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside the Special Report on Emissions Scenario (SRES A1B, which is a medium-high non-mitigation scenario, we consider a new aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1 with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2 K.

    Our results show that the mitigation scenario effectively constrains the global warming with a stabilization below 2 K with respect to the 1950–2000 historical period. On the other hand, the E1 precipitation does not follow the temperature field toward a stabilization path but continues to increase over the mitigation period. Quite unexpectedly, the mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen the hydrological cycle even more than SRES A1B till around 2070. We show that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to A1B. This appears to be primarily related to decreased sulfate aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to A1B.

    The last decades of the 21C show a marked increase in global precipitation in A1B compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost the same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to the 20th century. Our

  17. The effect of carbon tax on per capita CO2 emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Boqiang; Li Xuehui

    2011-01-01

    As the most efficient market-based mitigation instrument, carbon tax is highly recommended by economists and international organizations. Countries like Denmark, Finland, Sweden, Netherlands and Norway were the first adopters of carbon tax and as such, research on the impacts and problems of carbon tax implementation in these countries will provide great practical significance as well as caution for countries that are to levy the tax. Different from the existing studies that adopt the model simulation approaches, in this article, we comprehensively estimate the real mitigation effects of the five north European countries by employing the method of difference-in-difference (DID). The results indicate that carbon tax in Finland imposes a significant and negative impact on the growth of its per capita CO 2 emissions. Meanwhile, the effects of carbon tax in Denmark, Sweden and Netherlands are negative but not significant. The mitigation effects of carbon tax are weakened due to the tax exemption policies on certain energy intensive industries in these countries. Notwithstanding, in Norway, as the rapid growth of energy products drives a substantial increase of CO 2 emissions in oil drilling and natural gas exploitation sectors, carbon tax actually has not realized its mitigation effects. - Highlights: → DID method is employed to test the real mitigation effect of carbon tax. → Carbon tax in Finland imposes a significant and negative impact. → The effects of carbon tax in other four countries are limited. → Tax exemption or tax relief is the main reason of limited effects. → High tax rates and recycling the revenue contribute to emission reduction.

  18. High plant species diversity indirectly mitigates CO 2- and N-induced effects on grasshopper growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strengbom, Joachim; Reich, Peter B.; Ritchie, Mark E.

    2008-09-01

    We examined how elevated atmospheric [CO 2] and higher rate of nitrogen (N) input may influence grasshopper growth by changing food plant quality and how such effects may be modified by species diversity of the plant community. We reared grasshopper nymphs ( Melanoplus femurrubrum) on Poa pratensis from field-grown monocultures or polycultures (16 species) that were subjected to either ambient or elevated levels of CO 2 and N. Grasshopper growth rate was higher on P. pratensis leaves grown in monocultures than in polycultures, higher on P. pratensis grown under elevated than under ambient [CO 2], and higher on P. pratensis grown under elevated than under ambient [N]. The higher growth rate observed on P. pratensis exposed to elevated [CO 2] was, however, less pronounced for polyculture- than monoculture-grown P. pratensis. Growth rate of the grasshoppers was positively correlated with leaf [N], [C], and concentration of soluble carbohydrates + lipids. Concentration of non-structural carbohydrates + lipids was higher in leaves grown under elevated than under ambient [CO 2], and the difference between P. pratensis grown under ambient and elevated [CO 2] was greater for monoculture- than polyculture-grown P. pratensis. In addition, leaf N concentration was higher in P. pratensis grown in monocultures than in polycultures, suggesting that plant species richness, indirectly, may influence insect performance by changed nutritional value of the plants. Because we found interactive effects between all factors included ([CO 2], [N], and plant species diversity), our results suggest that these parameters may influence plant-insect interactions in a complex way that is not predictable from the sum of single factor manipulations.

  19. Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, Eric A; Kanter, David

    2014-01-01

    Effective mitigation for N 2 O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N 2 O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N 2 O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Net anthropogenic N 2 O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N 2 O-N yr −1 . Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N 2 O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N 2 O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N 2 O emissions is highly uncertain; N 2 O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N 2 O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions. (paper)

  20. CO2 Capture and Storage in Coal Gasification Projects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, Anand B.; Phadke, Pranav C.

    2017-07-01

    In response to the global climate change problem, the world community today is in search for an effective means of carbon mitigation. India is a major developing economy and the economic growth is driven by ever-increasing consumption of energy. Coal is the only fossil fuel that is available in abundance in India and contributes to the major share of the total primary energy supply (TPES) in the country. Owing to the large unmet demand for affordable energy, primarily driven by the need for infrastructure development and increasing incomes and aspirations of people, as well as the energy security concerns, India is expected to have continued dependence on coal. Coal is not only the backbone of the electric power generation, but many major industries like cement, iron and steel, bricks, fertilizers also consume large quantities of coal. India has very low carbon emissions (˜ 1.5 tCO2 per capita) as compared to the world average (4.7 tCO2 per capita) and the developed world (11.2 tCO2 per capita). Although the aggregate emissions of the country are increasing with the rising population and fossil energy use, India has a very little contribution to the historical GHG accumulation in the atmosphere linked to the climate change problem. However, a large fraction of the Indian society is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change - due to its geographical location, large dependence on monsoon-based agriculture and limited technical, financial and institutional capacity. Today, India holds a large potential to offer cost-effective carbon mitigation to tackle the climate change problem. Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is the process of extraction of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) from industrial and energy related sources, transport to storage locations and long-term isolation from the atmosphere. It is a technology that has been developed in recent times and is considered as a bridging technology as we move towards carbon-neutral energy sources in response to the growing