Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

2015-01-01

The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

Effect of thermal fluctuations in spin-torque driven magnetization dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bonin, R.; Bertotti, G.; Serpico, C.; Mayergoyz, I.D.; D'Aquino, M.

2007-01-01

Nanomagnets with uniaxial symmetry driven by an external field and spin-polarized currents are considered. Anisotropy, applied field, and spin polarization are all aligned along the symmetry axis. Thermal fluctuations are described by adding a Gaussian white noise stochastic term to the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation for the deterministic dynamics. The corresponding Fokker-Planck equation is derived. It is shown that deterministic dynamics, thermal relaxation, and transition rate between stable states are governed by an effective potential including the effect of current injection

Effect of thermal fluctuations in spin-torque driven magnetization dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bonin, R. [INRiM, I-10135 Turin (Italy)]. E-mail: bonin@inrim.it; Bertotti, G. [INRiM, I-10135 Turin (Italy); Serpico, C. [Dipartimento di Ingegneria Elettrica, Universita di Napoli ' Federico II' I-80125 Naples (Italy); Mayergoyz, I.D. [Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742 (United States); D' Aquino, M. [Dipartimento per le Tecnologie, Universita di Napoli ' Parthenope' , I-80133 Naples (Italy)

2007-09-15

Nanomagnets with uniaxial symmetry driven by an external field and spin-polarized currents are considered. Anisotropy, applied field, and spin polarization are all aligned along the symmetry axis. Thermal fluctuations are described by adding a Gaussian white noise stochastic term to the Landau-Lifshitz-Gilbert equation for the deterministic dynamics. The corresponding Fokker-Planck equation is derived. It is shown that deterministic dynamics, thermal relaxation, and transition rate between stable states are governed by an effective potential including the effect of current injection.

Kac limit and thermodynamic characterization of stochastic dynamics driven by Poisson-Kac fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Giona, Massimiliano; Brasiello, Antonio; Crescitelli, Silvestro

2017-07-01

We analyze the thermodynamic properties of stochastic differential equations driven by smooth Poisson-Kac fluctuations, and their convergence, in the Kac limit, towards Wiener-driven Langevin equations. Using a Markovian embedding of the stochastic work variable, it is proved that the Kac-limit convergence implies a Stratonovich formulation of the limit Langevin equations, in accordance with the Wong-Zakai theorem. Exact moment analysis applied to the case of a purely frictional system shows the occurrence of different regimes and crossover phenomena in the parameter space.

The greenhouse effect and natural fluctuations of the climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schoenwiese, C.D.

1993-01-01

There is a straight line connecting the first estimate in 1896 of worldwide climate changes due to the increasing use of fossil sources of energy with the Climate Convention of the United Nations at the 1992 Environmental Summit. Extensive model calculations exist of the 'greenhouse effect', in which the lower atmosphere is heated by manmade emissions of trace gases affecting the climate. However, the anticipated changes are not restricted to the temperature of the air; they affect the climate as a whole worldwide. As a consequence, the German Federal Government, in addition to its ban on CFCs, plans to reduce manmade carbon dioxide emissions by 25 or 30% by 2005. Natural fluctuations of the climate compete with the greenhouse effect: Volcanic and solar effects, but also random variations within the complicated interactions in the climatic system (atmosphere - oceans - ice regions - biosphere - land surface). Mathematical and statistical analyses of the superposition of such climatic mechanisms, which are based on data from observations, result in a risk analysis at a high level of probability. (orig.) [de

How scaling fluctuation analyses can transform our view of the climate

Science.gov (United States)

Lovejoy, Shaun; Schertzer, Daniel

2013-04-01

There exist a bewildering diversity of proxy climate data including tree rings, ice cores, lake varves, boreholes, ice cores, pollen, foraminifera, corals and speleothems. Their quantitative use raises numerous questions of interpretation and calibration. Even in classical cases - such as the isotope signal in ice cores - the usual assumption of linear dependence on ambient temperature is only a first approximation. In other cases - such as speleothems - the isotope signals arise from multiple causes (which are not always understood) and this hinders their widespread use. We argue that traditional interpretations and calibrations - based on essentially deterministic comparisons between instrumental data, model outputs and proxies (albeit with the help of uncertainty analyses) - have been both overly ambitious while simultaneously underexploiting the data. The former since comparisons typically involve series at different temporal resolutions and from different geographical locations - one does not expect agreement in a deterministic sense, while with respect to climate models, one only expects statistical correspondences. The proxies are underexploited since comparisons are done at unique temporal and / or spatial resolutions whereas the fluctuations they describe provide information over wide ranges of scale. A convenient method of overcoming these difficulties is the use of fluctuation analysis systematically applied over the full range of available scales to determine the scaling proeprties. The new transformative element presented here, is to define fluctuations ΔT in a series T(t) at scale Δt not by differences (ΔT(Δt) = T(t+Δt) - T(t)) but rather by the difference in the means over the first and second halves of the lag Δt . This seemingly minor change - technically from "poor man's" to "Haar" wavelets - turns out to make a huge difference since for example, it is adequate for analysing temperatures from seconds to hundreds of millions of years yet

Lognormal firing rate distribution reveals prominent fluctuation-driven regime in spinal motor networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersen, Peter C.; Berg, Rune W.

2016-01-01

fraction that operates within either a ‘mean-driven’ or a ‘fluctuation–driven’ regime. Fluctuation-driven neurons have a ‘supralinear’ input-output curve, which enhances sensitivity, whereas the mean-driven regime reduces sensitivity. We find a rich diversity of firing rates across the neuronal population...... as reflected in a lognormal distribution and demonstrate that half of the neurons spend at least 50 %% of the time in the ‘fluctuation–driven’ regime regardless of behavior. Because of the disparity in input–output properties for these two regimes, this fraction may reflect a fine trade–off between stability...

Temporal and spatial variations in wildlife population fluctuations in Greenland; The effect of climate, environment and man

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moshøj, Charlotte Margaret; Forchhammer, Mads C.; Forbes, Valery E.

2009-01-01

Temporal and spatial variations in wildlife population fluctuations in Greenland; The effect of climate, environment and man Moshøj, C.M, M.C.Forchhammer and V.E. Forbes Temporal and spatial variations in wildlife population fluctuations in Greenland; The effect of climate, environment and man...... and mammals display distinct population fluctuations of varying temporal and spatial scale. In Greenland, historical records, archaeological findings and oral accounts passed on from Inuit elders all document that the presence of wildlife species and their population sizes have undergone pronounced....... The results of this study will model future predictions of wildlife populations under changing climate variables and human hunting pressure....

Investigation of the climate-driven periodicity of shallow groundwater level fluctuations in a Central-Eastern European agricultural region

Science.gov (United States)

Garamhegyi, Tamás; Kovács, József; Pongrácz, Rita; Tanos, Péter; Hatvani, István Gábor

2018-05-01

The distribution and amount of groundwater, a crucial source of Earth's drinking and irrigation water, is changing due to climate-change effects. Therefore, it is important to understand groundwater behavior in extreme scenarios, e.g. drought. Shallow groundwater (SGW) level fluctuation under natural conditions displays periodic behavior, i.e. seasonal variation. Thus, the study aims to investigate (1) the periodic behavior of the SGW level time series of an agriculturally important and drought-sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe - the Carpathian Basin, in the north-eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain, and (2) its relationship to the European atmospheric pressure action centers. Data from 216 SGW wells were studied using wavelet spectrum analysis and wavelet coherence analyses for 1961-2010. Locally, a clear relationship exists between the absence of annual periodic behavior in the SGW level and the periodicity of droughts, as indicated by the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Aridity Index. During the non-periodic intervals, significant drops in groundwater levels (average 0.5 m) were recorded in 89% of the wells. This result links the meteorological variables to the periodic behavior of SGW, and consequently, drought. On a regional scale, Mediterranean cyclones from the Gulf of Genoa (northwest Italy) were found to be a driving factor in the 8-yr periodic behavior of the SGW wells. The research documents an important link between SGW levels and local/regional climate variables or indices, thereby facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, as these must take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events on crop yield: a case study in Hunan Province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Zhu; Shi, Peijun; Zhang, Zhao; Meng, Yongchang; Luan, Yibo; Wang, Jiwei

2017-09-01

Separating out the influence of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events on crop yield is of paramount importance to climate change adaptation, resilience, and mitigation. Previous studies lack systematic and explicit assessment of these three fundamental aspects of climate change on crop yield. This research attempts to separate out the impacts on rice yields of climatic trend (linear trend change related to mean value), fluctuations (variability surpassing the "fluctuation threshold" which defined as one standard deviation (1 SD) of the residual between the original data series and the linear trend value for each climatic variable), and extreme events (identified by absolute criterion for each kind of extreme events related to crop yield). The main idea of the research method was to construct climate scenarios combined with crop system simulation model. Comparable climate scenarios were designed to express the impact of each climate change component and, were input to the crop system model (CERES-Rice), which calculated the related simulated yield gap to quantify the percentage impacts of climatic trend, fluctuations, and extreme events. Six Agro-Meteorological Stations (AMS) in Hunan province were selected to study the quantitatively impact of climatic trend, fluctuations and extreme events involving climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) on early rice yield during 1981-2012. The results showed that extreme events were found to have the greatest impact on early rice yield (-2.59 to -15.89%). Followed by climatic fluctuations with a range of -2.60 to -4.46%, and then the climatic trend (4.91-2.12%). Furthermore, the influence of climatic trend on early rice yield presented "trade-offs" among various climate variables and AMS. Climatic trend and extreme events associated with air temperature showed larger effects on early rice yield than other climatic variables, particularly for high-temperature events (-2.11 to -12

Mesoscopic fluctuations in biharmonically driven flux qubits

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrón, Alejandro; Domínguez, Daniel; Sánchez, María José

2017-01-01

We investigate flux qubits driven by a biharmonic magnetic signal, with a phase lag that acts as an effective time reversal broken parameter. The driving induced transition rate between the ground and the excited state of the flux qubit can be thought of as an effective transmittance, profiting from a direct analogy between interference effects at avoided level crossings and scattering events in disordered electronic systems. For time scales prior to full relaxation, but large compared to the decoherence time, this characteristic rate has been accessed experimentally by Gustavsson et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 110, 016603 (2013)], 10.1103/PhysRevLett.110.016603 and its sensitivity with both the phase lag and the dc flux detuning explored. In this way, signatures of universal conductance fluctuationslike effects have been analyzed and compared with predictions from a phenomenological model that only accounts for decoherence, as a classical noise. Here we go beyond the classical noise model and solve the full dynamics of the driven flux qubit in contact with a quantum bath employing the Floquet-Born-Markov master equation. Within this formalism, the computed relaxation and decoherence rates turn out to be strongly dependent on both the phase lag and the dc flux detuning. Consequently, the associated pattern of fluctuations in the characteristic rates display important differences with those obtained within the mentioned phenomenological model. In particular, we demonstrate the weak localizationlike effect in the average values of the relaxation rate. Our predictions can be tested for accessible but longer time scales than the current experimental times.

Holocene Glacier Fluctuations in the Peruvian Andes Indicate Northern Climate Linkages

Science.gov (United States)

Licciardi, Joseph M.; Schaefer, Joerg M.; Taggart, Jean R.; Lund, David C.

2009-09-01

The role of the tropics in triggering, transmitting, and amplifying interhemispheric climate signals remains a key debate in paleoclimatology. Tropical glacier fluctuations provide important insight on regional paleoclimatic trends and forcings, but robust chronologies are scarce. Here, we report precise moraine ages from the Cordillera Vilcabamba (13°20‧S) of southern Peru that indicate prominent glacial events and associated climatic shifts in the outer tropics during the early Holocene and late in the “Little Ice Age” period. Our glacier chronologies differ from the New Zealand record but are broadly correlative with well-dated glacial records in Europe, suggesting climate linkages between the tropics and the North Atlantic region.

Fluctuation-Driven Transport in Biological Nanopores. A 3D Poisson–Nernst–Planck Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marcel Aguilella-Arzo

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Living systems display a variety of situations in which non-equilibrium fluctuations couple to certain protein functions yielding astonishing results. Here we study the bacterial channel OmpF under conditions similar to those met in vivo, where acidic resistance mechanisms are known to yield oscillations in the electric potential across the cell membrane. We use a three-dimensional structure-based theoretical approach to assess the possibility of obtaining fluctuation-driven transport. Our calculations show that remarkably high voltages would be necessary to observe the actual transport of ions against their concentration gradient. The reasons behind this are the mild selectivity of this bacterial pore and the relatively low efficiencies of the oscillating signals characteristic of membrane cells (random telegraph noise and thermal noise.

Analysis of the Relationship Between Climate and NDVI Variability at Global Scales

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Fan-Wei; Collatz, G. James; Pinzon, Jorge; Ivanoff, Alvaro

2011-01-01

interannual variability in modeled (CASA) C flux is in part caused by interannual variability in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR). This study confirms a mechanism producing variability in modeled NPP: -- NDVI (FPAR) interannual variability is strongly driven by climate; -- The climate driven variability in NDVI (FPAR) can lead to much larger fluctuation in NPP vs. the NPP computed from FPAR climatology

Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

Science.gov (United States)

Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

2015-12-01

Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

Sensitivity of seafloor bathymetry to climate-driven fluctuations in mid-ocean ridge magma supply.

Science.gov (United States)

Olive, J-A; Behn, M D; Ito, G; Buck, W R; Escartín, J; Howell, S

2015-10-16

Recent studies have proposed that the bathymetric fabric of the seafloor formed at mid-ocean ridges records rapid (23,000 to 100,000 years) fluctuations in ridge magma supply caused by sealevel changes that modulate melt production in the underlying mantle. Using quantitative models of faulting and magma emplacement, we demonstrate that, in fact, seafloor-shaping processes act as a low-pass filter on variations in magma supply, strongly damping fluctuations shorter than about 100,000 years. We show that the systematic decrease in dominant seafloor wavelengths with increasing spreading rate is best explained by a model of fault growth and abandonment under a steady magma input. This provides a robust framework for deciphering the footprint of mantle melting in the fabric of abyssal hills, the most common topographic feature on Earth. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

Science.gov (United States)

Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

2016-02-12

Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Climate-driven changes in water level

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Rikke Bjerring; Olsen, Jesper; Jeppesen, Erik

2013-01-01

level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions...... hydrology driven by precipitation. The isotopic, sedimentary and plant macrofossil records suggested that the lake level started to decrease around 8400 cal. yr BP, the decrease accelerating during 8350-8260 before an abrupt increase during 8260-8210. This pattern shows that the climate anomaly started...... rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water...

Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

Science.gov (United States)

Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

2018-02-27

Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Patterns and singular features of extreme fluctuational paths of a periodically driven system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Zhen; Liu, Xianbin

2016-01-01

Large fluctuations of an overdamped periodically driven oscillating system are investigated theoretically and numerically in the limit of weak noise. Optimal paths fluctuating to certain point are given by statistical analysis using the concept of prehistory probability distribution. The validity of statistical results is verified by solutions of boundary value problem. Optimal paths are found to change topologically when terminating points lie at opposite side of a switching line. Patterns of extreme paths are plotted through a proper parameterization of Lagrangian manifold having complicated structures. Several extreme paths to the same point are obtained by multiple solutions of boundary value solutions. Actions along various extreme paths are calculated and associated analysis is performed in relation to the singular features of the patterns. - Highlights: • Both extreme and optimal paths are obtained by various methods. • Boundary value problems are solved to ensure the validity of statistical results. • Topological structure of Lagrangian manifold is considered. • Singularities of the pattern of extreme paths are studied.

The Effect of Climate, Environment and Man on Variations in Wildlife Population Fluctuations in Greenland Over 200 Years

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moshøj, Charlotte Margaret

The Effect of Climate, Environment and Man on Variations in Wildlife Population Fluctuations in Greenland Over 200 Years Moshøj, Charlotte The underlying factors of species fluctuating population dynamics has been the dominant focus of attention in population ecology throughout much of this century...... passed on from Inuit elders all document that the presence of wildlife species and their population sizes have undergone pronounced fluctuations throughout recordable historical time. The most detailed accounts are found for the species that were harvested or had economical value. While several recent...... data, environmental factors and temporal variations in social and demographic parameters in the existing society. The results of this study model future predictions of wildlife populations under changing climate variables and human hunting pressure. View Presentation....

Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

OpenAIRE

J. Azuara; N. Combourieu-Nebout; V. Lebreton; F. Mazier; S. D. Müller; L. Dezileau

2015-01-01

Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics ove...

A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joseph Leedale

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

Disentangling the climate-driven bimodal growth pattern in coastal and continental Mediterranean pine stands.

Science.gov (United States)

Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Ribas, Montse; Gazol, Antonio; Gutierrez, E; Carrer, Marco

2018-02-15

Mediterranean climate promotes two distinct growth peaks separated by summer quiescence in trees. This bimodal pattern has been associated to favourable growing conditions during spring and autumn when mild temperatures and soil-water availability enhance cambial activity. Climatic models predict progressive warming and drying for the Mediterranean Basin, which could shorten or shift the spring and autumn growing seasons. We explored this idea by comparing two sites with different Mediterranean climate types (continental/dry and coastal/wet) and studied how climate drives the bimodal growth pattern in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis). Specifically we investigated the intra-annual changes in wood anatomy and the corresponding formation of density fluctuations (IADF). Trees on both sites were analyzed by dendrometer monitoring and by developing chronologies of wood anatomical traits. Radial-increment dynamics followed a similar bimodal pattern in both sites but coastal trees showed higher increments during the spring and autumn growth peaks, especially in autumn. The summer rest of cambium activity occurs almost one month earlier in the coastal than in the inland site. Lumen area and cell-wall thickness were significantly smaller in the continental site, while the increment rate of cell-wall thickness during an IADF event was much higher in the coastal pines. The accumulated soil moisture deficit was the main climatic constraint of tracheid enlargement in continental pines. Intra-annual density fluctuations were more frequent in the coastal trees where wood anatomy features recover to average values after such events, meanwhile inland trees presented a much lower recovery rate. Growth bimodality and the formation of density fluctuations were linked, but mild climate of the coastal site allows a longer growing season, which explains why trees in this area showed higher and more variable growth rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contemporary white-band disease in Caribbean corals driven by climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Randall, C. J.; van Woesik, R.

2015-04-01

Over the past 40 years, two of the dominant reef-building corals in the Caribbean, Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis, have experienced unprecedented declines. That loss has been largely attributed to a syndrome commonly referred to as white-band disease. Climate change-driven increases in sea surface temperature (SST) have been linked to several coral diseases, yet, despite decades of research, the attribution of white-band disease to climate change remains unknown. Here we hindcasted the potential relationship between recent ocean warming and outbreaks of white-band disease on acroporid corals. We quantified eight SST metrics, including rates of change in SST and contemporary thermal anomalies, and compared them with records of white-band disease on A. palmata and A. cervicornis from 473 sites across the Caribbean, surveyed from 1997 to 2004. The results of our models suggest that decades-long climate-driven changes in SST, increases in thermal minima, and the breach of thermal maxima have all played significant roles in the spread of white-band disease. We conclude that white-band disease has been strongly coupled with thermal stresses associated with climate change, which has contributed to the regional decline of these once-dominant reef-building corals.

Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

OpenAIRE

Azuara , J; Combourieu-Nebout , N; Lebreton , V; Mazier , F; Müller , S D; Dezileau , L ,

2015-01-01

International audience; Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediter-ranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean pale-oenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were un-dertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamic...

Energy fluctuations in a biharmonically driven nonlinear system

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

analyse the nature of work and heat fluctuations and show that the steady state fluctuation .... The above equation is the statement of the first law of thermodynamics and ..... One of the authors (AMJ) thanks DST, India for financial support.

Impacts of Seasonal Patterns of Climate on Recurrent Fluctuations in Tourism Demand: Evidence from Aruba

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ridderstaat, J.R.; Oderber, M.; Croes, R.; Nijkamp, P.; Martens, P.

2014-01-01

This study estimates the effect of seasonal patterns of pull and push climate elements (rainfall, temperature, wind, and cloud coverage) on recurrent fluctuations in tourism demand from the United States (USA) and Venezuela to Aruba. The seasonal patterns were first isolated from the series using

Climate-driven flushing of pore water in peatlands

Science.gov (United States)

Siegel, D. I.; Reeve, A. S.; Glaser, P. H.; Romanowicz, E. A.

1995-04-01

NORTHERN peatlands can act as either important sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon1,2. It is therefore important to understand how carbon cycling in these regions will respond to a changing climate. Existing carbon balance models for peatlands assume that fluid flow and advective mass transport are negligible at depth3,4, and that the effects of climate change should be essentially limited to the near-surface. Here we report the response of groundwater flow and porewater chemistry in the Glacial Lake Agassiz peat-lands of northern Minnesota to the regional drought cycle. Comparison of field observations and numerical simulations indicates that climate fluctuations of short duration may temporarily reverse the vertical direction of fluid flow through the peat, although this has little effect on water chemistry5. On the other hand, periods of drought persisting for at least 3-5 years produce striking changes in the chemistry of the pore water. These longer-term changes in hydrology influence the flux of nutrients and dissolved organic matter through the deeper peat, and therefore affect directly the rates of fermentation and methanogenesis, and the export of dissolved carbon compounds from the peatland.

The causality analysis of climate change and large-scale human crisis.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, David D; Lee, Harry F; Wang, Cong; Li, Baosheng; Pei, Qing; Zhang, Jane; An, Yulun

2011-10-18

Recent studies have shown strong temporal correlations between past climate changes and societal crises. However, the specific causal mechanisms underlying this relation have not been addressed. We explored quantitative responses of 14 fine-grained agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic variables to climate fluctuations from A.D. 1500-1800 in Europe. Results show that cooling from A.D. 1560-1660 caused successive agro-ecological, socioeconomic, and demographic catastrophes, leading to the General Crisis of the Seventeenth Century. We identified a set of causal linkages between climate change and human crisis. Using temperature data and climate-driven economic variables, we simulated the alternation of defined "golden" and "dark" ages in Europe and the Northern Hemisphere during the past millennium. Our findings indicate that climate change was the ultimate cause, and climate-driven economic downturn was the direct cause, of large-scale human crises in preindustrial Europe and the Northern Hemisphere.

ARE THE VARIATIONS IN QUASAR OPTICAL FLUX DRIVEN BY THERMAL FLUCTUATIONS?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelly, Brandon C.; Siemiginowska, Aneta; Bechtold, Jill

2009-01-01

We analyze a sample of optical light curves for 100 quasars, 70 of which have black hole mass estimates. Our sample is the largest and broadest used yet for modeling quasar variability. The sources in our sample have z 42 ∼ λ (5100 A) ∼ 46 , and 10 6 ∼ BH /M sun ∼ 10 . We model the light curves as a continuous time stochastic process, providing a natural means of estimating the characteristic timescale and amplitude of quasar variations. We employ a Bayesian approach to estimate the characteristic timescale and amplitude of flux variations; our approach is not affected by biases introduced from discrete sampling effects. We find that the characteristic timescales strongly correlate with black hole mass and luminosity, and are consistent with disk orbital or thermal timescales. In addition, the amplitude of short-timescale variations is significantly anticorrelated with black hole mass and luminosity. We interpret the optical flux fluctuations as resulting from thermal fluctuations that are driven by an underlying stochastic process, such as a turbulent magnetic field. In addition, the intranight variations in optical flux implied by our empirical model are ∼<0.02 mag, consistent with current microvariability observations of radio-quiet quasars. Our stochastic model is therefore able to unify both long- and short-timescale optical variations in radio-quiet quasars as resulting from the same underlying process, while radio-loud quasars have an additional variability component that operates on timescales ∼<1 day.

Greenness and Carbon Stocks of Mangroves: A climate-driven Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Lule, A. V.; Colditz, R. R.; Herrera-Silveira, J.; Guevara, M.; Rodriguez-Zuniga, M. T.; Cruz, I.; Ressl, R.; Vargas, R.

2017-12-01

Mangroves cover less than 1% of the earth's surface and are one o­­­f the most productive ecosystems of the world. They are highly vulnerable to climate variability due to their sensitivity to environmental changes; therefore, there are scientific and societal needs to designed frameworks to assess mangrove's vulnerability. We study the relationship between climate drivers, canopy greenness and carbon stocks to quantify a potential climate-driven effect on mangrove carbon dynamics. We identify greenness trends and their relationships with climate drivers and carbon stocks throughout 15 years (2001-2015) across mangrove forests of Mexico. We defined several categories for mangroves: a) Arid mangroves with superficial water input (ARsw); b) Humid mangroves with interior or underground water input (HUiw); and c) Humid mangroves with superficial water input (HUsw). We found a positive significant trend of greenness for ARsw and HUsw categories (pmangrove's categories (pmangrove categories showed higher greenness values during winter; which is likely driven by temperature with a lag of -3 to -5 months (r2 > 0.69). Precipitation and temperature drive canopy greenness only across HUsw. Regarding carbon stocks, the HUiw shows the lower amount of aboveground carbon (AGC; 12.7 Mg C ha-1) and the higher belowground carbon (BGC; 219 Mg C ha-1). The HUsw shows the higher amount of AGC (169.5 Mg C ha-1) and the ARsw the lower of BGC (92.4 Mg C ha-1). Climate drivers are better related with canopy greenness and AGC for both humid mangrove categories (r2 > 0.48), while the relationship of BGC and canopy greenness is lower for all categories (r2 mangrove's ecosystem function and environmental services, as well as their potential vulnerability to climate variability.

Holocene and latest Pleistocene climate and glacier fluctuations in Iceland

Science.gov (United States)

Geirsdóttir, Áslaug; Miller, Gifford H.; Axford, Yarrow; Ólafsdóttir, Sædís

2009-10-01

Multiproxy climate records from Iceland document complex changes in terrestrial climate and glacier fluctuations through the Holocene, revealing some coherent patterns of change as well as significant spatial variability. Most studies on the Last Glacial Maximum and subsequent deglaciation reveal a dynamic Iceland Ice Sheet (IIS) that responded abruptly to changes in ocean currents and sea level. The IIS broke up catastrophically around 15 ka as the Polar Front migrated northward and sea level rose. Indications of regional advance or halt of the glaciers are seen in late Alleröd/early Younger Dryas time and again in PreBoreal time. Due to the apparent rise of relative sea level in Iceland during this time, most sites contain evidence for fluctuating, tidewater glacier termini occupying paleo fjords and bays. The time between the end of the Younger Dryas and the Preboreal was characterized by repeated jökulhlaups that eroded glacial deposits. By 10.3 ka, the main ice sheet was in rapid retreat across the highlands of Iceland. The Holocene thermal maximum (HTM) was reached after 8 ka with land temperatures estimated to be 3 °C higher than the 1961-1990 reference, and net precipitation similar to modern. Such temperatures imply largely ice-free conditions across Iceland in the early to mid-Holocene. Several marine and lacustrine sediment climate proxies record substantial summer temperature depression between 8.5 and 8 ka, but no moraines have been detected from that time. Termination of the HTM and onset of Neoglacial cooling took place sometime after 6 ka with increased glacier activity between 4.5 and 4.0 ka, intensifying between 3.0 and 2.5 ka. Although a distinct warming during the Medieval Warm Period is not dramatically apparent in Icelandic records, the interval from ca AD 0 to 1200 is commonly characterized by relative stability with slow rates of change. The literature most commonly describes Little Ice Age moraines (ca AD 1250-1900) as representing the

RF current drive and plasma fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Peysson, Yves; Decker, Joan; Morini, L; Coda, S

2011-01-01

The role played by electron density fluctuations near the plasma edge on rf current drive in tokamaks is assessed quantitatively. For this purpose, a general framework for incorporating density fluctuations in existing modelling tools has been developed. It is valid when rf power absorption takes place far from the fluctuating region of the plasma. The ray-tracing formalism is modified in order to take into account time-dependent perturbations of the density, while the Fokker–Planck solver remains unchanged. The evolution of the electron distribution function in time and space under the competing effects of collisions and quasilinear diffusion by rf waves is determined consistently with the time scale of fluctuations described as a statistical process. Using the ray-tracing code C3PO and the 3D linearized relativistic bounce-averaged Fokker–Planck solver LUKE, the effect of electron density fluctuations on the current driven by the lower hybrid (LH) and the electron cyclotron (EC) waves is estimated quantitatively. A thin fluctuating layer characterized by electron drift wave turbulence at the plasma edge is considered. The effect of fluctuations on the LH wave propagation is equivalent to a random scattering process with a broadening of the poloidal mode spectrum proportional to the level of the perturbation. However, in the multipass regime, the LH current density profile remains sensitive to the ray chaotic behaviour, which is not averaged by fluctuations. The effect of large amplitude fluctuations on the EC driven current is found to be similar to an anomalous radial transport of the fast electrons. The resulting lower current drive efficiency and broader current profile are in better agreement with experimental observations. Finally, applied to the ITER ELMy H-mode regime, the model predicts a significant broadening of the EC driven current density profile with the fluctuation level, which can make the stabilization of neoclassical tearing mode potentially

Interannual water-level fluctuations and the vegetation of prairie potholes: Potential impacts of climate change

Science.gov (United States)

van der Valk, Arnold; Mushet, David M.

2016-01-01

Mean water depth and range of interannual water-level fluctuations over wet-dry cycles in precipitation are major drivers of vegetation zone formation in North American prairie potholes. We used harmonic hydrological models, which require only mean interannual water depth and amplitude of water-level fluctuations over a wet–dry cycle, to examine how the vegetation zones in a pothole would respond to small changes in water depth and/or amplitude of water-level fluctuations. Field data from wetlands in Saskatchewan, North Dakota, and South Dakota were used to parameterize harmonic models for four pothole classes. Six scenarios in which small negative or positive changes in either mean water depth, amplitude of interannual fluctuations, or both, were modeled to predict if they would affect the number of zones in each wetland class. The results indicated that, in some cases, even small changes in mean water depth when coupled with a small change in amplitude of water-level fluctuations can shift a prairie pothole wetland from one class to another. Our results suggest that climate change could alter the relative proportion of different wetland classes in the prairie pothole region.

Scaling up nanoscale water-driven energy conversion into evaporation-driven engines and generators

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Xi; Goodnight, Davis; Gao, Zhenghan; Cavusoglu, Ahmet H.; Sabharwal, Nina; Delay, Michael; Driks, Adam; Sahin, Ozgur

2015-06-01

Evaporation is a ubiquitous phenomenon in the natural environment and a dominant form of energy transfer in the Earth's climate. Engineered systems rarely, if ever, use evaporation as a source of energy, despite myriad examples of such adaptations in the biological world. Here, we report evaporation-driven engines that can power common tasks like locomotion and electricity generation. These engines start and run autonomously when placed at air-water interfaces. They generate rotary and piston-like linear motion using specially designed, biologically based artificial muscles responsive to moisture fluctuations. Using these engines, we demonstrate an electricity generator that rests on water while harvesting its evaporation to power a light source, and a miniature car (weighing 0.1 kg) that moves forward as the water in the car evaporates. Evaporation-driven engines may find applications in powering robotic systems, sensors, devices and machinery that function in the natural environment.

Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

2017-11-14

Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Disentangling the effects of feedback structure and climate on Poaceae annual airborne pollen fluctuations and the possible consequences of climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

García de León, David; García-Mozo, Herminia; Galán, Carmen; Alcázar, Purificación; Lima, Mauricio; González-Andújar, José L

2015-10-15

Pollen allergies are the most common form of respiratory allergic disease in Europe. Most studies have emphasized the role of environmental processes, as the drivers of airborne pollen fluctuations, implicitly considering pollen production as a random walk. This work shows that internal self-regulating processes of the plants (negative feedback) should be included in pollen dynamic systems in order to give a better explanation of the observed pollen temporal patterns. This article proposes a novel methodological approach based on dynamic systems to investigate the interaction between feedback structure of plant populations and climate in shaping long-term airborne Poaceae pollen fluctuations and to quantify the effects of climate change on future airborne pollen concentrations. Long-term historical airborne Poaceae pollen data (30 years) from Cordoba city (Southern Spain) were analyzed. A set of models, combining feedback structure, temperature and actual evapotranspiration effects on airborne Poaceae pollen were built and compared, using a model selection approach. Our results highlight the importance of first-order negative feedback and mean annual maximum temperature in driving airborne Poaceae pollen dynamics. The best model was used to predict the effects of climate change under two standardized scenarios representing contrasting temporal patterns of economic development and CO2 emissions. Our results predict an increase in pollen levels in southern Spain by 2070 ranging from 28.5% to 44.3%. The findings from this study provide a greater understanding of airborne pollen dynamics and how climate change might impact the future evolution of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations and thus the future evolution of related pollen allergies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Escape routes, weak links, and desynchronization in fluctuation-driven networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schäfer, Benjamin; Matthiae, Moritz; Zhang, Xiaozhu

2017-01-01

Shifting our electricity generation from fossil fuel to renewable energy sources introduces large fluctuations to the power system. Here, we demonstrate how increased fluctuations, reduced damping, and reduced intertia may undermine the dynamical robustness of power grid networks. Focusing...... on fundamental noise models, we derive analytic insights into which factors limit the dynamic robustness and how fluctuations may induce a system escape from an operating state. Moreover, we identify weak links in the grid that make it particularly vulnerable to fluctuations. These results thereby not only...

The physicist's companion to current fluctuations: one-dimensional bulk-driven lattice gases

Science.gov (United States)

Lazarescu, Alexandre

2015-12-01

One of the main features of statistical systems out of equilibrium is the currents they exhibit in their stationary state: microscopic currents of probability between configurations, which translate into macroscopic currents of mass, charge, etc. Understanding the general behaviour of these currents is an important step towards building a universal framework for non-equilibrium steady states akin to the Gibbs-Boltzmann distribution for equilibrium systems. In this review, we consider one-dimensional bulk-driven particle gases, and in particular the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) with open boundaries, which is one of the most popular models of one-dimensional transport. We focus, in particular, on the current of particles flowing through the system in its steady state, and on its fluctuations. We show how one can obtain the complete statistics of that current, through its large deviation function, by combining results from various methods: exact calculation of the cumulants of the current, using the integrability of the model; direct diagonalization of a biased process in the limits of very high or low current; hydrodynamic description of the model in the continuous limit using the macroscopic fluctuation theory. We give a pedagogical account of these techniques, starting with a quick introduction to the necessary mathematical tools, as well as a short overview of the existing works relating to the ASEP. We conclude by drawing the complete dynamical phase diagram of the current. We also remark on a few possible generalizations of these results.

An analytical model for climatic predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Njau, E.C.

1990-12-01

A climatic model based upon analytical expressions is presented. This model is capable of making long-range predictions of heat energy variations on regional or global scales. These variations can then be transformed into corresponding variations of some other key climatic parameters since weather and climatic changes are basically driven by differential heating and cooling around the earth. On the basis of the mathematical expressions upon which the model is based, it is shown that the global heat energy structure (and hence the associated climatic system) are characterized by zonally as well as latitudinally propagating fluctuations at frequencies downward of 0.5 day -1 . We have calculated the propagation speeds for those particular frequencies that are well documented in the literature. The calculated speeds are in excellent agreement with the measured speeds. (author). 13 refs

Geomorphic features as indicators of climatic fluctuations in a periglacial environment, northern Sweden

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nyberg, R; Lindh, L [Lund Univ. (SE). Dept. of Physical Geography

1990-01-01

Goemorphic responses to climatic fluctuations in the periglacial mountain environment of northern Sweden, especially the Abisko mountains, are discussed. Although the frequency and magnitude of rapid mass movements are related to climatic conditions, the depositional patterns of the processes and the variable availability of source material complicate their use as climatic indicators. Possibly, debris flows and slushflows were frequent during the Little Ice Age, according to lichenometric dating of old deposits. Field observations suggest a fairly high frequency also during the last few decades. Boulder pavements, moraine-like ridges and glacial striae in front of major snowfields indicate these were previously larger and in some cases active as small glaciers perhaps in the cold beginning of the 1900's. During the warm 1920-30's snowpatches and glaciers, as well as permafrost mounds were affected by a general degeneration. Climatic inferences made from the mentioned features are still very crude. Tentatively, it is suggested that they are presently beginning to respond to the cooling trend affecting northern Scandinavia since about 1940. The anticipated impact of a greenhouse warming of the atmosphere has thus so far not been noticeable in this high latitude area. (authors).

Insects in fluctuating thermal environments.

Science.gov (United States)

Colinet, Hervé; Sinclair, Brent J; Vernon, Philippe; Renault, David

2015-01-07

All climate change scenarios predict an increase in both global temperature means and the magnitude of seasonal and diel temperature variation. The nonlinear relationship between temperature and biological processes means that fluctuating temperatures lead to physiological, life history, and ecological consequences for ectothermic insects that diverge from those predicted from constant temperatures. Fluctuating temperatures that remain within permissive temperature ranges generally improve performance. By contrast, those which extend to stressful temperatures may have either positive impacts, allowing repair of damage accrued during exposure to thermal extremes, or negative impacts from cumulative damage during successive exposures. We discuss the mechanisms underlying these differing effects. Fluctuating temperatures could be used to enhance or weaken insects in applied rearing programs, and any prediction of insect performance in the field-including models of climate change or population performance-must account for the effect of fluctuating temperatures.

Climatically related millennial-scale fluctuations in strength of California margin oxygen-minimum zone during the past 60 k.y.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cannariato, K.G.; Kennett, J.P.

1999-11-01

A strong oxygen-minimum zone (OMZ) currently exists along the California margin because of a combination of high surface-water productivity and poor intermediate-water ventilation. However, the strength of this OMZ may have been sensitive to late Quaternary ocean-circulation and productivity changes along the margin. Although sediment-lamination strength has been used to trace ocean-oxygenation changes in the past, oxygen levels on the open margin are not sufficiently low for laminations to form. In these regions, benthic foraminifera are highly sensitive monitors of OMZ strength, and their fossil assemblages can be used to reconstruct past fluctuations. Benthic foraminiferal assemblages from Ocean Drilling Program Site 1017, off Point Conception, exhibit major and rapid faunal oscillations in response to late Quaternary millennial-scale climate change (Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles) on the open central California margin. These faunal oscillations can be correlated to and are apparently synchronous with those reported from Santa Barbara Basin. Together they represent major fluctuations in the strength of the OMZ which were intimately associated with global climate change--weakening, perhaps disappearing, during cool periods and strengthening during warm periods. These rapid, major OMZ strength fluctuations were apparently widespread on the Northeast Pacific margin and must have influenced the evolution of margin biota and altered biogeochemical cycles with potential feedbacks to global climate change.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

2009-12-29

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

Science.gov (United States)

Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range

Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

2010-06-15

We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yang, Hao; Luo, Peng; Wang, Jun; Mou, Chengxiang; Mo, Li; Wang, Zhiyuan; Fu, Yao; Lin, Honghui; Yang, Yongping; Bhatta, Laxmi Dutt

2015-01-01

Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET) and water yield (WY) of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang) increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

Radiation Belt Transport Driven by Solar Wind Dynamic Pressure Fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Kress, B. T.; Hudson, M. K.; Ukhorskiy, A. Y.; Mueller, H.

2012-12-01

The creation of the Earth's outer zone radiation belts is attributed to earthward transport and adiabatic acceleration of electrons by drift-resonant interactions with electromagnetic fluctuations in the magnetosphere. Three types of radial transport driven by solar wind dynamic pressure fluctuations that have been identified are: (1) radial diffusion [Falthammer, 1965], (2) significant changes in the phase space density radial profile due to a single or few ULF drift-resonant interactions [Ukhorskiy et al., 2006; Degeling et al., 2008], and (3) shock associated injections of radiation belt electrons occurring in less than a drift period [Li et al., 1993]. A progress report will be given on work to fully characterize different forms of radial transport and their effect on the Earth's radiation belts. The work is being carried out by computing test-particle trajectories in electric and magnetic fields from a simple analytic ULF field model and from global MHD simulations of the magnetosphere. Degeling, A. W., L. G. Ozeke, R. Rankin, I. R. Mann, and K. Kabin (2008), Drift resonant generation of peaked relativistic electron distributions by Pc 5 ULF waves, textit{J. Geophys. Res., 113}, A02208, doi:10.1029/2007JA012411. Fälthammar, C.-G. (1965), Effects of Time-Dependent Electric Fields on Geomagnetically Trapped Radiation, J. Geophys. Res., 70(11), 2503-2516, doi:10.1029/JZ070i011p02503. Li, X., I. Roth, M. Temerin, J. R. Wygant, M. K. Hudson, and J. B. Blake (1993), Simulation of the prompt energization and transport of radiation belt particles during the March 24, 1991 SSC, textit{Geophys. Res. Lett., 20}(22), 2423-2426, doi:10.1029/93GL02701. Ukhorskiy, A. Y., B. J. Anderson, K. Takahashi, and N. A. Tsyganenko (2006), Impact of ULF oscillations in solar wind dynamic pressure on the outer radiation belt electrons, textit{Geophys. Res. Lett., 33}(6), L06111, doi:10.1029/2005GL024380.

Nonequilibrium fluctuations in a resistor.

Science.gov (United States)

Garnier, N; Ciliberto, S

2005-06-01

In small systems where relevant energies are comparable to thermal agitation, fluctuations are of the order of average values. In systems in thermodynamical equilibrium, the variance of these fluctuations can be related to the dissipation constant in the system, exploiting the fluctuation-dissipation theorem. In nonequilibrium steady systems, fluctuations theorems (FT) additionally describe symmetry properties of the probability density functions (PDFs) of the fluctuations of injected and dissipated energies. We experimentally probe a model system: an electrical dipole driven out of equilibrium by a small constant current I, and show that FT are experimentally accessible and valid. Furthermore, we stress that FT can be used to measure the dissipated power P = R I2 in the system by just studying the PDFs' symmetries.

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Science.gov (United States)

Glotter, Michael J.; Ruane, Alex C.; Moyer, Elisabeth J.; Elliott, Joshua W.

2015-01-01

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

Is the number and size of scales in Liolaemus lizards driven by climate?

Science.gov (United States)

José Tulli, María; Cruz, Félix B

2018-05-03

Ectothermic vertebrates are sensitive to thermal fluctuations in the environments where they occur. To buffer these fluctuations, ectotherms use different strategies, including the integument, which is a barrier that minimizes temperature exchange between the inner body and the surrounding air. In lizards, this barrier is constituted by keratinized scales of variable size, shape and texture, and its main function is protection, water loss avoidance and thermoregulation. The size of scales in lizards has been proposed to vary in relation to climatic gradients; however, it has also been observed that in some groups of Iguanian lizards could be related to phylogeny. Thus, here, we studied the area and number of scales (dorsal and ventral) of 61 species of Liolaemus lizards distributed in a broad latitudinal and altitudinal gradient to determine the nature of the variation of the scales with climate, and found that the number and size of scales are related to climatic variables, such as temperature and geographical variables as altitude. The evolutionary process that better explained how these morphological variables evolved was the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The number of scales seemed to be related to common ancestry, whereas dorsal and ventral scale areas seemed to vary as a consequence of ecological traits. In fact, the ventral area is less exposed to climate conditions such as ultraviolet radiation or wind and is thus under less pressure to change in response to alterations in external conditions. It is possible that scale ornamentation such as keels and granulosity may bring some more information in this regard. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

2012-09-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Science.gov (United States)

Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

2013-04-01

We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. B. B. Booth

2013-04-01

Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

Critical current fluctuation in a microwave-driven Josephson junction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dong Ning; Sun Guozhu; Wang Yiwen; Cao Junyu; Yu Yang; Chen Jian; Kang Lin; Xu Weiwei; Han Siyuan; Wu Peiheng

2007-01-01

Josephson junction devices are good candidates for quantum computation. A large energy splitting was observed in the spectroscopy of a superconducting Josephson junction. The presence of the critical current fluctuation near the energy splitting indicated coupling between the junction and a two-level system. Furthermore, we find that this fluctuation is microwave dependent. It only appears at certain microwave frequency. This relation suggested that the decoherence of qubits is influenced by the necessary computing operations

Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange

Science.gov (United States)

Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

2016-12-01

Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon

Quantum Fluctuations of Low Dimensional Bose-Einstein ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A system of low dimensional condensed ultracold atomic gases inside a field of a laser-driven optical cavity exhibits dispersive optical bistability. During such a process the system also shows quantum fluctuations. Condensate fluctuations are highly manifested particularly in low dimensional systems. In this paper we have ...

Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mario Liebergesell

Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

2015-01-01

Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

Ecosystem Evapotranspiration as a Response to Climate and Vegetation Coverage Changes in Northwest Yunnan, China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hao Yang

Full Text Available Climate and human-driven changes play an important role in regional droughts. Northwest Yunnan Province is a key region for biodiversity conservation in China, and it has experienced severe droughts since the beginning of this century; however, the extent of the contributions from climate and human-driven changes remains unclear. We calculated the ecosystem evapotranspiration (ET and water yield (WY of northwest Yunnan Province, China from 2001 to 2013 using meteorological and remote sensing observation data and a Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS model. Multivariate regression analyses were used to differentiate the contribution of climate and vegetation coverage to ET. The results showed that the annual average vegetation coverage significantly increased over time with a mean of 0.69 in spite of the precipitation fluctuation. Afforestation/reforestation and other management efforts attributed to vegetation coverage increase in NW Yunnan. Both ET and WY considerably fluctuated with the climate factors, which ranged from 623.29 mm to 893.8 mm and -51.88 mm to 384.40 mm over the time period. Spatially, ET in the southeast of NW Yunnan (mainly in Lijiang increased significantly, which was in line with the spatial trend of vegetation coverage. Multivariate linear regression analysis indicated that climatic factors accounted for 85.18% of the ET variation, while vegetation coverage explained 14.82%. On the other hand, precipitation accounted for 67.5% of the WY. We conclude that the continuous droughts in northwest Yunnan were primarily climatically driven; however, man-made land cover and vegetation changes also increased the vulnerability of local populations to drought. Because of the high proportion of the water yield consumed for subsistence and poor infrastructure for water management, local populations have been highly vulnerable to climate drought conditions. We suggest that conservation of native vegetation and development of water

Temperature fluctuations in the Atlantic Ocean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hjoello, Solfrid Saetre

2005-01-01

The article discusses the temperature fluctuations in connection with drought in Africa, the climate in North America, the European heat waves and the frequent tropical hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean. Problems with climate modelling and some pollution aspects are mentioned

The physicist's companion to current fluctuations: one-dimensional bulk-driven lattice gases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lazarescu, Alexandre

2015-01-01

One of the main features of statistical systems out of equilibrium is the currents they exhibit in their stationary state: microscopic currents of probability between configurations, which translate into macroscopic currents of mass, charge, etc. Understanding the general behaviour of these currents is an important step towards building a universal framework for non-equilibrium steady states akin to the Gibbs–Boltzmann distribution for equilibrium systems. In this review, we consider one-dimensional bulk-driven particle gases, and in particular the asymmetric simple exclusion process (ASEP) with open boundaries, which is one of the most popular models of one-dimensional transport. We focus, in particular, on the current of particles flowing through the system in its steady state, and on its fluctuations. We show how one can obtain the complete statistics of that current, through its large deviation function, by combining results from various methods: exact calculation of the cumulants of the current, using the integrability of the model; direct diagonalization of a biased process in the limits of very high or low current; hydrodynamic description of the model in the continuous limit using the macroscopic fluctuation theory. We give a pedagogical account of these techniques, starting with a quick introduction to the necessary mathematical tools, as well as a short overview of the existing works relating to the ASEP. We conclude by drawing the complete dynamical phase diagram of the current. We also remark on a few possible generalizations of these results. (topical review)

Fully Quantum Fluctuation Theorems

Science.gov (United States)

Åberg, Johan

2018-02-01

Systems that are driven out of thermal equilibrium typically dissipate random quantities of energy on microscopic scales. Crooks fluctuation theorem relates the distribution of these random work costs to the corresponding distribution for the reverse process. By an analysis that explicitly incorporates the energy reservoir that donates the energy and the control system that implements the dynamic, we obtain a quantum generalization of Crooks theorem that not only includes the energy changes in the reservoir but also the full description of its evolution, including coherences. Moreover, this approach opens up the possibility for generalizations of the concept of fluctuation relations. Here, we introduce "conditional" fluctuation relations that are applicable to nonequilibrium systems, as well as approximate fluctuation relations that allow for the analysis of autonomous evolution generated by global time-independent Hamiltonians. We furthermore extend these notions to Markovian master equations, implicitly modeling the influence of the heat bath.

Event-by-Event Elliptic Flow Fluctuations from PHOBOS

Science.gov (United States)

Wosiek, B.; Alver, B.; Back, B. B.; Baker, M. D.; Ballintijn, M.; Barton, D. S.; Betts, R. R.; Bickley, A. A.; Bindel, R.; Busza, W.; Carroll, A.; Chai, Z.; Chetluru, V.; Decowski, M. P.; García, E.; Gburek, T.; George, N.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Halliwell, C.; Hamblen, J.; Harnarine, I.; Hauer, M.; Henderson, C.; Hofman, D. J.; Hollis, R. S.; Hołyński, R.; Holzman, B.; Iordanova, A.; Johnson, E.; Kane, J. L.; Khan, N.; Kulinich, P.; Kuo, C. M.; Li, W.; Lin, W. T.; Loizides, C.; Manly, S.; Mignerey, A. C.; Nouicer, R.; Olszewski, A.; Pak, R.; Reed, C.; Richardson, E.; Roland, C.; Roland, G.; Sagerer, J.; Seals, H.; Sedykh, I.; Smith, C. E.; Stankiewicz, M. A.; Steinberg, P.; Stephans, G. S. F.; Sukhanov, A.; Szostak, A.; Tonjes, M. B.; Trzupek, A.; Vale, C.; van Nieuwenhuizen, G. J.; Vaurynovich, S. S.; Verdier, R.; Veres, G. I.; Walters, P.; Wenger, E.; Willhelm, D.; Wolfs, F. L. H.; Woźniak, K.; Wyngaardt, S.; Wysłouch, B.

2009-04-01

Recently PHOBOS has focused on the study of fluctuations and correlations in particle production in heavy-ion collisions at the highest energies delivered by the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC). In this report, we present results on event-by-event elliptic flow fluctuations in (Au+Au) collisions at sqrt {sNN}=200 GeV. A data-driven method was used to estimate the dominant contribution from non-flow correlations. Over the broad range of collision centralities, the observed large elliptic flow fluctuations are in agreement with the fluctuations in the initial source eccentricity.

Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Solander, Kurt C.; Xu, Chonggang; Maxwell, Reed M.; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-01-01

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

Nonequilibrium quantum fluctuations of work.

Science.gov (United States)

Allahverdyan, A E

2014-09-01

The concept of work is basic for statistical thermodynamics. To gain a fuller understanding of work and its (quantum) features, it needs to be represented as an average of a fluctuating quantity. Here I focus on the work done between two moments of time for a thermally isolated quantum system driven by a time-dependent Hamiltonian. I formulate two natural conditions needed for the fluctuating work to be physically meaningful for a system that starts its evolution from a nonequilibrium state. The existing definitions do not satisfy these conditions due to issues that are traced back to noncommutativity. I propose a definition of fluctuating work that is free of previous drawbacks and that applies for a wide class of nonequilibrium initial states. It allows the deduction of a generalized work-fluctuation theorem that applies for an arbitrary (out-of-equilibrium) initial state.

Demographically idiosyncratic responses to climate change and rapid Pleistocene diversification of the walnut genus Juglans (Juglandaceae) revealed by whole-genome sequences

Science.gov (United States)

Wei-Ning Bai; Peng-Cheng Yan; Bo-Wen Zhang; Keith E. Woeste; Kui Lin; Da-Yong. Zhang

2018-01-01

Whether species demography and diversification are driven primarily by extrinsic environmental changes such as climatic oscillations in the Quaternary or by intrinsic biological interactions like coevolution between antagonists is a matter of active debate. In fact, their relative importance can be assessed by tracking past population fluctuations over considerable...

Atlantic multidecadal oceanic variability and its influence on the atmosphere in a climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Msadek, Rym; Frankignoul, Claude [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Paris 6, LOCEAN/IPSL, Paris (France)

2009-07-15

The mechanisms controlling the decadal to multidecadal variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) and its influence on the atmosphere are investigated using a control simulation with the IPSL-CM4 climate model. The multidecadal fluctuations of the MOC are mostly driven by deep convection in the subpolar gyre, which occurs south of Iceland in the model. The latter is primarily influenced by the anomalous advection of salinity due to changes in the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), which is the second mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic region. The North Atlantic Oscillation is the dominant mode, but it plays a secondary role in the MOC fluctuations. During summer, the MOC variability is shown to have a significant impact on the atmosphere in the North Atlantic-European sector. The MOC influence is due to an interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with opposite signs in the two hemispheres but largest amplitude in the northern one. The SST pattern driven by the MOC mostly resembles the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and bears some similarity with the observed one. It is shown that the AMO reflects both the MOC influence and the local atmospheric forcing. Hence, the MOC influence on climate is best detected using lagged relations between climatic fields. The atmospheric response resembles the EAP, in a phase that might induce a weak positive feedback on the MOC. (orig.)

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

OpenAIRE

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, M.; Binner, A.; Coombes, E.; Day, B.; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, C.; Hutchins, M.; Lovett, A.; Posen, P.

2016-01-01

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...

Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Schmid, B. V.; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. R.; Ginzler, Ch.; Walloe, L.; Bramanti, B.; Stenseth, N. C.

2015-01-01

Roč. 112, č. 10 (2015), s. 3020-3025 ISSN 0027-8424 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : yersinia-pestis * xenopsylla-cheopis * bubonic plague * central-asia * synchrony * dynamics * transmission * temperature * populations * thresholds * Yersinia pestis * medieval epidemiology * climate-driven disease dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 9.423, year: 2015 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/10/3020.full.pdf

How well do growing season dynamics of photosynthetic capacity correlate with leaf biochemistry and climate fluctuations?

Science.gov (United States)

Way, Danielle A; Stinziano, Joseph R; Berghoff, Henry; Oren, Ram

2017-07-01

Accurate values of photosynthetic capacity are needed in Earth System Models to predict gross primary productivity. Seasonal changes in photosynthetic capacity in these models are primarily driven by temperature, but recent work has suggested that photoperiod may be a better predictor of seasonal photosynthetic capacity. Using field-grown kudzu (Pueraria lobata (Willd.) Ohwi), a nitrogen-fixing vine species, we took weekly measurements of photosynthetic capacity, leaf nitrogen, and pigment and photosynthetic protein concentrations and correlated these with temperature, irradiance and photoperiod over the growing season. Photosynthetic capacity was more strongly correlated with photoperiod than with temperature or daily irradiance, while the growing season pattern in photosynthetic capacity was uncoupled from changes in leaf nitrogen, chlorophyll and Rubisco. Daily estimates of the maximum carboxylation rate of Rubisco (Vcmax) based on either photoperiod or temperature were correlated in a non-linear manner, but Vcmax estimates from both approaches that also accounted for diurnal temperature fluctuations were similar, indicating that differences between these models depend on the relevant time step. We advocate for considering photoperiod, and not just temperature, when estimating photosynthetic capacity across the year, particularly as climate change alters temperatures but not photoperiod. We also caution that the use of leaf biochemical traits as proxies for estimating photosynthetic capacity may be unreliable when the underlying relationships between proxy leaf traits and photosynthetic capacity are established outside of a seasonal framework. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2015-01-01

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

Science.gov (United States)

Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

2017-12-01

Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verma, Monika; Diffenbaugh, Noah; Hertel, Thomas

2014-01-01

Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%. (letter)

Market-oriented ethanol and corn-trade policies can reduce climate-induced US corn price volatility

Science.gov (United States)

Verma, Monika; Hertel, Thomas; Diffenbaugh, Noah

2014-05-01

Agriculture is closely affected by climate. Over the past decade, biofuels have emerged as another important factor shaping the agricultural sector. We ask whether the presence of the US ethanol sector can play a role in moderating increases in US corn price variability, projected to occur in response to near-term global warming. Our findings suggest that the answer to this question depends heavily on the underlying forces shaping the ethanol industry. If mandate-driven, there is little doubt that the presence of the corn-ethanol sector will exacerbate price volatility. However, if market-driven, then the emergence of the corn-ethanol sector can be a double-edged sword for corn price volatility, possibly cushioning the impact of increased climate driven supply volatility, but also inheriting volatility from the newly integrated energy markets via crude oil price fluctuations. We find that empirically the former effect dominates, reducing price volatility by 27%. In contrast, mandates on ethanol production increase future price volatility by 54% in under future climate after 2020. We also consider the potential for liberalized international corn trade to cushion corn price volatility in the US. Our results suggest that allowing corn to move freely internationally serves to reduce the impact of near-term climate change on US corn price volatility by 8%.

Geological events and Pliocene climate fluctuations explain the phylogeographical pattern of the cold water fish Rhynchocypris oxycephalus (Cypriniformes: Cyprinidae) in China.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Dan; Chen, Ming; Tang, Qiongying; Li, Xiaojuan; Liu, Huanzhang

2014-10-25

Rhynchocypris oxycephalus is a cold water fish with a wide geographic distribution including the relatively warm temperate regions of southern China. It also occurs in second- and third-step geomorphic areas in China. Previous studies have postulated that high-altitude populations of R. oxycephalus in southern China are Quaternary glacial relics. In this study, we used the mitochondrial gene Cytb and the nuclear gene RAG2 to investigate the species phylogeographical patterns and to test two biogeographic hypotheses: (1) that divergence between lineages supports the three-step model and (2) climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary resulted in the present distribution in southern China. Phylogenetic analysis detected three major matrilines (A, B, and C); with matrilines B and C being further subdivided into two submatrilines. Based on genetic distances and morphological differences, matriline A potentially represents a cryptic subspecies. The geographic division between matrilines B and C coincided with the division of the second and third geomorphic steps in China, suggesting a historical vicariance event. Pliocene climatic fluctuations might have facilitated the southwards dispersal of R. oxycephalus in matriline C, with the subsequent warming resulting in its split into submatrilines C1 and C2, leaving submatriline C2 as a relic in southern China. Our study demonstrates that geological events (three steps orogenesis) and climate fluctuations during the Pliocene were important factors in shaping phylogeographical patterns in R. oxycephalus. Notably, no genetic diversity was detected in several populations, all of which possessed unique genotypes. This indicates the uniqueness of local populations and calls for a special conservation plan for the whole species at the population level.

Changes in climate, catchment vegetation and hydrogeology as the causes of dramatic lake-level fluctuations in the Kurtna Lake District, NE Estonia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marko Vainu

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Numerous lakes in the world serve as sensitive indicators of climate change. Water levels for lakes Ahnejärv and Martiska, two vulnerable oligotrophic closed-basin lakes on sandy plains in northeastern Estonia, fell more than 3 m in 1946–1987 and rose up to 2 m by 2009. Earlier studies indicated that changes in rates of groundwater abstraction were primarily responsible for the changes, but scientifically sound explanations for water-level fluctuations were still lacking. Despite the inconsistent water-level dataset, we were able to assess the importance of changing climate, catchment vegetation and hydrogeology in water-level fluctuations in these lakes. Our results from water-balance simulations indicate that before the initiation of ground­water abstraction in 1972 a change in the vegetation composition on the catchments triggered the lake-level decrease. The water-level rise in 1990–2009 was caused, in addition to the reduction of groundwater abstraction rates, by increased precipitation and decreased evaporation. The results stress that climate, catchment vegetation and hydrogeology must all be considered while evaluating the causes of modern water-level changes in lakes.

Fluctuations and stability in the Advanced Toroidal Facility (ATF) torsatron

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, J.H.; Charlton, L.A.; Bell, J.D.; Bigelow, T.S.; Carreras, B.A.; Colchin, R.J.; Crume, E.C.; Dominguez, N.; Dunlap, J.L.; Dyer, G.R.; England, A.C.; Glowienka, J.C.; Hillis, D.L.; Hiroe, S.; Horton, L.D.; Howe, H.C.; Isler, R.C.; Jernigan, T.C.; Leboeuf, J.N.; Lee, D.K.; Lynch, V.E.; Lyon, J.F.; Menon, M.M.; Murakami, M.; Rasmussen, D.A.; Uckan, T.; Wilgen, J.B.; Wing, W.R.; Bell, G.L.; Crocker, N.A.; Hanson, G.R.; Thomas, C.E.; Wade, M.R.; Ritz, C.P.

1990-01-01

We present the results of experimental and theoretical studies of fluctuations and instabilities in the ATF torsatron, a type of stellarator. Measurements of globally coherent magnetic fluctuations in high-β plasmas with narrow pressure profiles produced by a field error show evidence of self-stabilization ('second stability'); the trends are compatible with theoretical analysis of self-stabilization of resistive curvature-driven instabilities, but there are discrepancies between the absolute experimental and theoretical fluctuation amplitudes. Fluctuation measurements in plasma with broad pressure profiles reveal new phenomena--specifically, toroidally localized magnetic fluctuations, whose amplitudes increase with plasma pressure, and coherent density fluctuations with significant radial width

Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

Science.gov (United States)

Myksvoll, Mari S; Erikstad, Kjell E; Barrett, Robert T; Sandvik, Hanno; Vikebø, Frode

2013-01-01

Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

Climate change and water table fluctuation: Implications for raised bog surface variability

Science.gov (United States)

Taminskas, Julius; Linkevičienė, Rita; Šimanauskienė, Rasa; Jukna, Laurynas; Kibirkštis, Gintautas; Tamkevičiūtė, Marija

2018-03-01

Cyclic peatland surface variability is influenced by hydrological conditions that highly depend on climate and/or anthropogenic activities. A low water level leads to a decrease of peatland surface and an increase of C emissions into the atmosphere, whereas a high water level leads to an increase of peatland surface and carbon sequestration in peatlands. The main aim of this article is to evaluate the influence of hydrometeorological conditions toward the peatland surface and its feedback toward the water regime. A regional survey of the raised bog water table fluctuation and surface variability was made in one of the largest peatlands in Lithuania. Two appropriate indicators for different peatland surface variability periods (increase and decrease) were detected. The first one is an 200 mm y- 1 average net rainfall over a three-year range. The second one is an average annual water depth of 25-30 cm. The application of these indicators enabled the reconstruction of Čepkeliai peatland surface variability during a 100 year period. Processes of peatland surface variability differ in time and in separate parts of peatland. Therefore, internal subbasins in peatland are formed. Subbasins involve autogenic processes that can later affect their internal hydrology, nutrient status, and vegetation succession. Internal hydrological conditions, surface fluctuation, and vegetation succession in peatland subbasins should be taken into account during evaluation of their state, nature management projects, and other peatland research works.

A Science-Driven Photojournalistic Documentation of Climate Change (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Braasch, G.; Rothlein, J. E.

2013-12-01

Office of the President; two original books (one for middle schools with a co-author); publication in hundreds of magazines, textbooks and public interest websites; use during university, government and civic seminars and scientific meetings; and distribution among and use by Congressional offices. Most recently the project inspired films about youth involvement in citizen science and climate change education; and co-developed Apps for the iPad and iPhone which graphically show climate-driven changes in repeat photographs and maps. Financial support for this work has come principally from publication fees and grants from small foundations and individuals (via Blue Earth Alliance of Seattle).

The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

2016-01-01

Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

Science.gov (United States)

Lacressonnière, G.; Peuch, V.-H.; Arteta, J.; Josse, B.; Joly, M.; Marécal, V.; Saint Martin, D.; Déqué, M.; Watson, L.

2012-12-01

Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors), and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense). Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.). Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10. We study how the simulations driven by climate

Leggett-Garg Inequalities for Quantum Fluctuating Work

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harry J. D. Miller

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The Leggett-Garg inequalities serve to test whether or not quantum correlations in time can be explained within a classical macrorealistic framework. We apply this test to thermodynamics and derive a set of Leggett-Garg inequalities for the statistics of fluctuating work done on a quantum system unitarily driven in time. It is shown that these inequalities can be violated in a driven two-level system, thereby demonstrating that there exists no general macrorealistic description of quantum work. These violations are shown to emerge within the standard Two-Projective-Measurement scheme as well as for alternative definitions of fluctuating work that are based on weak measurement. Our results elucidate the influences of temporal correlations on work extraction in the quantum regime and highlight a key difference between quantum and classical thermodynamics.

Multi-scale response of runoff to climate fluctuation in the headwater region of Kaidu River in Xinjiang of China

Science.gov (United States)

Bai, Ling; Chen, Zhongsheng; Xu, Jianhua; Li, Weihong

2016-08-01

Based on the hydrological and meteorological data in the headwater region of the Kaidu River during 1960-2009, the multi-scale characteristics of runoff variability were analyzed using the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method (EEMD), and the aim is to investigate the oscillation mode structure characteristics of runoff change and its response to climate fluctuation at different time scales. Results indicated that in the past 50 years, the overall runoff of Kaidu River in Xinjiang has showed a significant nonlinear upward trend, and its changes have obviously exhibited an inter-annual scale (quasi-3 and quasi-6-year) and inter-decadal scale (quasi-10 and quasi-25-year). Variance contribution rates of each component manifested that the inter-decadal change had been playing a more important role in the overall runoff change for Kaidu River, and the reconstructed inter-annual variation trend could describe the fluctuation state of the original runoff anomaly during the study period. The reconstructed inter-decadal variability effectively revealed that the runoff for Kaidu River changed over the years, namely the states of abundance and low water period appear alternately. In addition, we found that runoff has a positive correlation to precipitation and temperature at different time scales, but they are most significant and relevant at inter-decadal scale, indicating the inter-decadal scale is most suitable for investigating the responses of runoff dynamics to climate fluctuation. At the same time, the results also suggested that EEMD is an effective method to analyze the multi-scale characteristics of nonlinear and non-stationary signal.

Time-dependent perpendicular fluctuations in the driven lattice Lorentz gas

Science.gov (United States)

Leitmann, Sebastian; Schwab, Thomas; Franosch, Thomas

2018-02-01

We present results for the fluctuations of the displacement of a tracer particle on a planar lattice pulled by a step force in the presence of impenetrable, immobile obstacles. The fluctuations perpendicular to the applied force are evaluated exactly in first order of the obstacle density for arbitrarily strong pulling and all times. The complex time-dependent behavior is analyzed in terms of the diffusion coefficient, local exponent, and the non-Skellam parameter, which quantifies deviations from the dynamics on the lattice in the absence of obstacles. The non-Skellam parameter along the force is analyzed in terms of an asymptotic model and reveals a power-law growth for intermediate times.

Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard E. Feldman

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

Do interactions of land use and climate affect productivity of waterbirds and prairie-pothole wetlands?

Science.gov (United States)

Anteau, Michael J.

2012-01-01

Availability of aquatic invertebrates on migration and breeding areas influences recruitment of ducks and shorebirds. In wetlands of Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), aquatic invertebrate production primarily is driven by interannual fluctuations of water levels in response to wet-dry cycles in climate. However, this understanding comes from studying basins that are minimally impacted by agricultural landscape modifications. In the past 100–150 years, a large proportion of wetlands within the PPR have been altered; often water was drained from smaller to larger wetlands at lower elevations creating consolidated, interconnected basins. Here I present a case study and I hypothesize that large basins receiving inflow from consolidation drainage have reduced water-level fluctuations in response to climate cycles than those in undrained landscapes, resulting in relatively stable wetlands that have lower densities of invertebrate forage for ducks and shorebirds and also less foraging habitat, especially for shorebirds. Furthermore, stable water-levels and interconnected basins may favor introduced or invasive species (e.g., cattail [Typha spp.] or fish) because native communities "evolved" in a dynamic and isolated system. Accordingly, understanding interactions between water-level fluctuations and landscape modifications is a prerequisite step to modeling effects of climate change on wetland hydrology and productivity and concomitant recruitment of waterbirds.

Recent, climate-driven river incision rate fluctuations in the Mercantour crystalline massif, southern French Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Petit, C.; Goren, L.; Rolland, Y.; Bourlès, D.; Braucher, R.; Saillard, M.; Cassol, D.

2017-06-01

We present a new geomorphological analysis of the Tinée River tributaries in the southern French Alps based on numerical inverse and forward modelling of their longitudinal profiles. We model their relative uplift history with respect to the main channel, hence the incision rate history of this channel. Inverse models show that all tributaries have consistent incision rate histories with alternating high and low values. A comparison with global temperature curves shows that these variations correlate with quaternary climate changes. We suggest that during warm periods, a wave of regressive erosion propagates in the Tinée River, while its tributaries deeply incise their substratum to catch up with the falling base-level. We also show that the post 140 ka history of this landscape evolution is dominated by fluvial incision. We then perform forward models of river incision and simulate the incision of the Tinée River system over a time span of 600 ka. This model allows us to extract time and space incision rate variations of the Tinée River. With a background of a few mm.yr-1, incision rate can increase up to more than 1 cm yr-1 during short periods of time due to climatic oscillations. This result is compatible with published cosmogenic nuclide based dating, which evidenced incision rates from 0.2 to 24 mm yr-1. The part of the channel located between 12 and 20 km downstream from the source has undergone several periods of rapid incision rates, which could explain the steep hillslopes and the triggering of a landslide ∼10 ka ago.

Holocene sea-level fluctuation in the southern hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Isla, Federico Ignacio

If rising sea levels dominate in the northern hemisphere (NH), falling or fluctuating sea levels predominate in the southern hemisphere (SH). Endogenic processes (tectonics, isostasy or geoidal changes) could explain local or regional mean sea level (MSL) fluctuations but not an hemispherical one. Evidence from South America, Africa, Antarctica, Australia and the Pacific and Indian Oceans suggest that the Holocene transgression rose above the present MSL, in higher latitudes before the tropics. By plotting latitude against the age of MSL arrival at present coasts, good correlation is observed. Oceanic salinity mixing has been already proposed to explain this mid-Holocene sea-level fluctuation. Climate could be the only factor responsible for this hemisphere-wide behavior of MSL. It has been suggested previously that the climate of the SH precedes that of the NH by 3000 years. The climatic optimum, or maximum warmth, occurred predominantly about 6000 BP in the NH, but about 10-9000 BP in the SH. Short-term climatic effects on the sea level (monsoons, southern oscillation/El Niño phenomena) should have significant occurrences during the past in the windiest oceanic hemisphere. This latitudinal trend in former MSL should be considered when using shorelines as reference points for measuring vertical crustal movements.

Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activities in Languedoc (Southern France)

Science.gov (United States)

Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.

2015-09-01

Holocene climate fluctuations and human activities since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to reconstruct Mediterranean paleoenvironments over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the Late Holocene and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of climatic instability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events depicted in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of evergreen taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. The Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activities and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.

Late Holocene vegetation changes in relation with climate fluctuations and human activity in Languedoc (southern France)

Science.gov (United States)

Azuara, J.; Combourieu-Nebout, N.; Lebreton, V.; Mazier, F.; Müller, S. D.; Dezileau, L.

2015-12-01

Holocene climate fluctuations and human activity since the Neolithic have shaped present-day Mediterranean environments. Separating anthropogenic effects from climatic impacts to better understand Mediterranean paleoenvironmental changes over the last millennia remains a challenging issue. High-resolution pollen analyses were undertaken on two cores from the Palavasian lagoon system (Hérault, southern France). These records allow reconstruction of vegetation dynamics over the last 4500 years. Results are compared with climatic, historical and archeological archives. A long-term aridification trend is highlighted during the late Holocene, and three superimposed arid events are recorded at 4600-4300, 2800-2400 and 1300-1100 cal BP. These periods of high-frequency climate variability coincide in time with the rapid climatic events observed in the Atlantic Ocean (Bond et al., 2001). From the Bronze Age (4000 cal BP) to the end of the Iron Age (around 2000 cal BP), the spread of sclerophyllous taxa and loss of forest cover result from anthropogenic impact. Classical Antiquity is characterized by a major reforestation event related to the concentration of rural activity and populations in coastal plains leading to forest recovery in the mountains. A major regional deforestation occurred at the beginning of the High Middle Ages. Around 1000 cal BP, forest cover is minimal while the cover of olive, chestnut and walnut expands in relation to increasing human influence. The present-day vegetation dominated by Mediterranean shrubland and pines has been in existence since the beginning of the 20th century.

CLIMATIC SIGNALS FROM INTRA-ANNUAL DENSITY FLUCTUATION FREQUENCY IN MEDITERRANEAN PINES AT A REGIONAL SCALE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Enrica eZalloni

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Tree rings provide information about the climatic conditions during the growing season by recording them in different anatomical features, such as Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs. IADFs are intra-annual changes of wood density appearing as latewood-like cells within earlywood, or earlywood-like cells within latewood. The occurrence of IADFs is dependent on the age and size of the tree, and it is triggered by climatic drivers. The variations of IADF frequency of different species and their dependence on climate across a wide geographical range have still to be explored. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of age, tree-ring width and climate on IADF formation and frequency at a regional scale across the Mediterranean Basin in Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Ait. and Pinus pinea L. The analyzed tree-ring network was composed of P. pinea trees growing at 11 sites (2 in Italy, 4 in Spain and 4 in Portugal, P. pinaster from 19 sites (2 in Italy, 13 in Spain and 4 in Portugal, and P. halepensis from 38 sites in Spain. The correlations between IADF frequency and monthly minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, as well as between IADF frequency and total precipitation, were analyzed. A significant negative relationship between IADF frequency and tree-ring age was found for the three Mediterranean pines. Moreover, IADFs were more frequent in wider rings than in narrower ones, although the widest rings showed a reduced IADF frequency. Wet conditions during late summer/early autumn triggered the formation of IADFs in the three species. Our results suggest the existence of a common climatic driver for the formation of IADFs in Mediterranean pines, highlighting the potential use of IADF frequency as a proxy for climate reconstructions with geographical resolution.

Climatic Signals from Intra-annual Density Fluctuation Frequency in Mediterranean Pines at a Regional Scale

Science.gov (United States)

Zalloni, Enrica; de Luis, Martin; Campelo, Filipe; Novak, Klemen; De Micco, Veronica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Vieira, Joana; Nabais, Cristina; Rozas, Vicente; Battipaglia, Giovanna

2016-01-01

Tree rings provide information about the climatic conditions during the growing season by recording them in different anatomical features, such as intra-annual density fluctuations (IADFs). IADFs are intra-annual changes of wood density appearing as latewood-like cells within earlywood, or earlywood-like cells within latewood. The occurrence of IADFs is dependent on the age and size of the tree, and it is triggered by climatic drivers. The variations of IADF frequency of different species and their dependence on climate across a wide geographical range have still to be explored. The objective of this study is to investigate the effect of age, tree-ring width and climate on IADF formation and frequency at a regional scale across the Mediterranean Basin in Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Ait., and Pinus pinea L. The analyzed tree-ring network was composed of P. pinea trees growing at 10 sites (2 in Italy, 4 in Spain, and 4 in Portugal), P. pinaster from 19 sites (2 in Italy, 13 in Spain, and 4 in Portugal), and P. halepensis from 38 sites in Spain. The correlations between IADF frequency and monthly minimum, mean and maximum temperatures, as well as between IADF frequency and total precipitation, were analyzed. A significant negative relationship between IADF frequency and tree-ring age was found for the three Mediterranean pines. Moreover, IADFs were more frequent in wider rings than in narrower ones, although the widest rings showed a reduced IADF frequency. Wet conditions during late summer/early autumn triggered the formation of IADFs in the three species. Our results suggest the existence of a common climatic driver for the formation of IADFs in Mediterranean pines, highlighting the potential use of IADF frequency as a proxy for climate reconstructions with geographical resolution. PMID:27200052

Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mari S Myksvoll

Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

Impact of climate fluctuations on deposition of DDT and hexachlorocyclohexane in mountain glaciers: Evidence from ice core records

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Xiaoping; Gong Ping; Zhang, Qianggong; Yao Tandong

2010-01-01

How do climate fluctuations affect DDT and hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH) distribution in the global scale? In this study, the interactions between climate variations and depositions of DDT and HCH in ice cores from Mt. Everest (the Tibetan Plateau), Mt. Muztagata (the eastern Pamirs) and the Rocky Mountains were investigated. All data regarding DDT/HCH deposition were obtained from the published results. Concentrations of DDT and HCH in an ice core from Mt. Everest were associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation. Concentrations of DDT in an ice core from Mt. Muztagata were significantly correlated with the Siberia High pattern. Concentrations of HCH in an ice core from Snow Dome of the Rocky Mountains responded to the North Atlantic Oscillation. These associations suggested that there are some linkages between climate variations and the global distribution of persistent organic pollutants. - Our study approves the potential contribution of ice core records of POPs to transport mechanisms of POPs.

Variation in polydispersity in pump- and pressure-driven micro-droplet generators

Science.gov (United States)

Zeng, Wen; Jacobi, Ian; Li, Songjing; Stone, Howard A.

2015-11-01

The polydispersity of droplets produced in a typical T-junction microfluidic channel under both syringe-pump-driven and pressure-driven flow configurations is measured quantitatively. Both flow systems exhibit high-frequency flow fluctuations that result in an intrinsic polydispersity due to the mechanism of droplet generation. In addition to this intrinsic polydispersity, the syringe-pump-driven device also exhibits low-frequency fluctuations due to mechanical oscillations of the pump, which overwhelm the high-frequency flow fluctuations and produce a signficantly heightened level of polydispersity. The quantitative difference in polydispersity between the two configurations and time-resolved measurements of individual droplet sizes are presented in order to enable the design of better flow control systems for droplet production.

Lake level fluctuations boost toxic cyanobacterial "oligotrophic blooms".

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cristiana Callieri

Full Text Available Global warming has been shown to strongly influence inland water systems, producing noticeable increases in water temperatures. Rising temperatures, especially when combined with widespread nutrient pollution, directly favour the growth of toxic cyanobacteria. Climate changes have also altered natural water level fluctuations increasing the probability of extreme events as dry periods followed by heavy rains. The massive appearance of Dolichospermum lemmermannii ( = planktonic Anabaena, a toxic species absent from the pelagic zone of the subalpine oligotrophic Lake Maggiore before 2005, could be a consequence of the unusual fluctuations of lake level in recent years. We hypothesized that these fluctuations may favour the cyanobacterium as result of nutrient pulses from the biofilms formed in the littoral zone when the lake level is high. To help verify this, we exposed artificial substrates in the lake, and evaluated their nutrient enrichment and release after desiccation, together with measurements of fluctuations in lake level, precipitation and D. lemmermannii population. The highest percentage of P release and the lowest C:P molar ratio of released nutrients coincided with the summer appearance of the D. lemmermannii bloom. The P pulse indicates that fluctuations in level counteract nutrient limitation in this lake and it is suggested that this may apply more widely to other oligotrophic lakes. In view of the predicted increase in water level fluctuations due to climate change, it is important to try to minimize such fluctuations in order to mitigate the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms.

Optimal control of quantum systems: Origins of inherent robustness to control field fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rabitz, Herschel

2002-01-01

The impact of control field fluctuations on the optimal manipulation of quantum dynamics phenomena is investigated. The quantum system is driven by an optimal control field, with the physical focus on the evolving expectation value of an observable operator. A relationship is shown to exist between the system dynamics and the control field fluctuations, wherein the process of seeking optimal performance assures an inherent degree of system robustness to such fluctuations. The presence of significant field fluctuations breaks down the evolution of the observable expectation value into a sequence of partially coherent robust steps. Robustness occurs because the optimization process reduces sensitivity to noise-driven quantum system fluctuations by taking advantage of the observable expectation value being bilinear in the evolution operator and its adjoint. The consequences of this inherent robustness are discussed in the light of recent experiments and numerical simulations on the optimal control of quantum phenomena. The analysis in this paper bodes well for the future success of closed-loop quantum optimal control experiments, even in the presence of reasonable levels of field fluctuations

Theoretical studies on rapid fluctuations in solar flares

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vlahos, L.

1986-01-01

Rapid fluctuations in the emission of solar bursts may have many different origins, e.g., the acceleration process can have a pulsating structure, the propagation of energetic electrons and ions can be interrupted from plasma instabilities and finally the electromagnetic radiation produced by the interaction of electrostatic and electromagnetic waves may have a pulsating behavior in time. In two separate studies the conditions for rapid fluctuations in solar flare driven emission were analyzed

Theoretical studies on rapid fluctuations in solar flares

Science.gov (United States)

Vlahos, Loukas

1986-01-01

Rapid fluctuations in the emission of solar bursts may have many different origins e.g., the acceleration process can have a pulsating structure, the propagation of energetic electrons and ions can be interrupted from plasma instabilities and finally the electromagnetic radiation produced by the interaction of electrostatic and electromagnetic waves may have a pulsating behavior in time. In two separate studies the conditions for rapid fluctuations in solar flare driven emission were analyzed.

Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.

2016-01-01

As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of

Quantum work fluctuation theorem: Nonergodic Brownian motion case

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bai, Zhan-Wu

2014-01-01

The work fluctuations of a quantum Brownian particle driven by an external force in a general nonergodic heat bath are studied under a general initial state. The exact analytical expression of the work probability distribution function is derived. Results show the existence of a quantum asymptotic fluctuation theorem, which is in general not a direct generalization of its classical counterpart. The form of this theorem is dependent on the structure of the heat bath and the specified initial condition.

Performance Investigation of a Solar Heat Driven Adsorption Chiller under Two Different Climatic Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

Choudhury, Biplab; Chatterjee, Pradip Kumar; Habib, Khairul; Saha, Bidyut Baran

2018-06-01

The demand for cooling, especially in the developing economies, is rising at a fast rate. Fast-depleting sources of fossil fuel and environmental concerns necessitate looking for alternative cooling solutions. Solar heat driven adsorption based cooling cycles are environmentally friendly due to their use of natural refrigerants and the thermal compression process. In this paper, a performance simulation study of a basic two-bed solar adsorption chiller has been performed through a transient model for two different climatic locations in India. Effect of operating temperatures and cycle time on the chiller performance has been studied. It is observed that the solar hot water temperature obtained in the composite climate of Delhi (28.65°N, 77.25°E) can run the basic adsorption cooling cycle efficiently throughout the year. Whereas, the monsoon months of July and August in the warm and humid climate of Durgapur (23.48°N, 87.32°E) are unable to supply the required driving heat.

Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

Science.gov (United States)

Matulla, Christoph; Hollósi, Brigitta; Andre, Konrad; Gringinger, Julia; Chimani, Barbara; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Auerbach, Markus; Herrmann, Carina; Sladek, Brigitte; Berghold, Heimo; Gschier, Roland; Eichinger-Vill, Eva

2017-06-01

Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires

Temporal fluctuations after a quantum quench: Many-particle dephasing

Science.gov (United States)

Marquardt, Florian; Kiendl, Thomas

After a quantum quench, the expectation values of observables continue to fluctuate in time. In the thermodynamic limit, one expects such fluctuations to decrease to zero, in order for standard statistical physics to hold. However, it is a challenge to determine analytically how the fluctuations decay as a function of system size. So far, there have been analytical predictions for integrable models (which are, naturally, somewhat special), analytical bounds for arbitrary systems, and numerical results for moderate-size systems. We have discovered a dynamical regime where the decrease of fluctuations is driven by many-particle dephasing, instead of a redistribution of occupation numbers. On the basis of this insight, we are able to provide exact analytical expressions for a model with weak integrability breaking (transverse Ising chain with additional terms). These predictions explicitly show how fluctuations are exponentially suppressed with system size.

Neutron fluctuations in accelerator driven and power reactors via backward master equations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhifeng Kuang

2000-05-01

The transport of neutrons in a reactor is a random process, and thus the number of neutrons in a reactor is a random variable. Fluctuations in the number of neutrons in a reactor can be divided into two categories, namely zero noise and power reactor noise. As the name indicates, they dominate (i.e. are observable) at different power levels. The reasons for their occurrences and utilization are also different. In addition, they are described via different mathematical tools, namely master equations and the Langevin equation, respectively. Zero noise carries information about some nuclear properties such as reactor reactivity. Hence methods such as Feynman- and Rossi-alpha methods have been established to determine the subcritical reactivity of a subcritical system. Such methods received a renewed interest recently with the advent of the so-called accelerator driven systems (ADS). Such systems, intended to be used either for energy production or transuranium transmutation, will use a subcritical core with a strong spallation source. A spallation source has statistical properties that are different from those of the traditionally used radioactive sources which were also assumed in the derivation of the Feynman- and Rossi-alpha formulae. Therefore it is necessary to re-derive the Feynman- and Rossi-alpha formulae. Such formulae for ADS have been derived recently but in simpler neutronic models. One subject of this thesis is the extension of such formulae to a more general case in which six groups of delayed neutron precursors are taken into account, and the full joint statistics of the prompt and all delayed groups is included. The involved complexity problems are solved with a combination of effective analytical techniques and symbolic algebra codes. Power reactor noise carries information about parametric perturbation of the system. Langevin technique has been used to extract such information. In such a treatment, zero noise has been neglected. This is a pragmatic

Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williamson, James [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States); Aldrich, Robb [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States)

2015-08-19

Traditionally, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) have been used more often in warmer climates; however, some new ASHPs are gaining ground in colder areas. These systems operate at subzero (Fahrenheit) temperatures and many do not include backup electric resistance elements. There are still uncertainties, however, about capacity and efficiency in cold weather. Also, questions such as “how cold is too cold?” do not have clear answers. These uncertainties could lead to skepticism among homeowners; poor energy savings estimates; suboptimal system selection by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning contractors; and inconsistent energy modeling. In an effort to better understand and characterize the heating performance of these units in cold climates, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), monitored seven inverter-driven, ductless ASHPs across the Northeast. Operating data were collected for three Mitsubishi FE18 units, three Mitsubishi FE12 units, and one Fujitsu 15RLS2 unit. The intent of this research was to assess heat output, electricity consumption, and coefficients of performance (COPs) at various temperatures and load conditions. This assessment was accomplished with long- and short-term tests that measured power consumption; supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures; and airflow through the indoor fan coil.

Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

Science.gov (United States)

Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

2016-10-01

We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Magnetic fluctuation measurements in the Tokapole II tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LaPointe, M.A.

1990-09-01

Magnetic fluctuation measurements have been made in the Tokapole II tokamak in the frequency range 10 kHz ≤ f ≤ 5 MHz. The fluctuations above 500 kHz varied greatly as the effective edge safety factor, q a , was varied over the range 0.8 ≤ q a ≤ 3.8. As q a was varied from 3.8 to 0.8 the high frequency magnetic fluctuation amplitude increased by over three orders of magnitude. The fluctuation amplitude for 0.5 to 2.0 MHz was a factor of 10 lower than the fluctuation amplitude in the range 100 to 400 kHz for q a of 0.8. When q a was increased to 3.8 the difference between the differing frequency ranges increased to a factor of 10 3 . Comparison of the measured broadband fluctuation amplitudes with those predicted from thermally driven Alfven and magnetosonic waves shows that the amplitudes are at least 1000 times larger than the theoretical predictions. This indicates that there is some other mechanism driving the higher frequency magnetic fluctuations. Estimates show that the contribution by the magnetic fluctuations above 500 kHz to the estimated electron energy loss from stochastic fields is negligible. The profiles of the various components of the magnetic fluctuations indicate the possibility that the shear in the magnetic field may stabilize whatever instabilities drive the magnetic fluctuations

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

Science.gov (United States)

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; van Rooijen, Arnold; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia

2015-01-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

Science.gov (United States)

Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; Rooijen, Arnold; Cheriton, Olivia; Dongeren, Ap

2015-08-01

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

Density Fluctuations in the Solar Wind Driven by Alfvén Wave Parametric Decay

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Trevor A.; Badman, Samuel; Hellinger, Petr; Bale, Stuart D.

2018-02-01

Measurements and simulations of inertial compressive turbulence in the solar wind are characterized by anti-correlated magnetic fluctuations parallel to the mean field and density structures. This signature has been interpreted as observational evidence for non-propagating pressure balanced structures, kinetic ion-acoustic waves, as well as the MHD slow-mode. Given the high damping rates of parallel propagating compressive fluctuations, their ubiquity in satellite observations is surprising and suggestive of a local driving process. One possible candidate for the generation of compressive fluctuations in the solar wind is the Alfvén wave parametric instability. Here, we test the parametric decay process as a source of compressive waves in the solar wind by comparing the collisionless damping rates of compressive fluctuations with growth rates of the parametric decay instability daughter waves. Our results suggest that generation of compressive waves through parametric decay is overdamped at 1 au, but that the presence of slow-mode-like density fluctuations is correlated with the parametric decay of Alfvén waves.

Theropod Fauna from Southern Australia Indicates High Polar Diversity and Climate-Driven Dinosaur Provinciality

Science.gov (United States)

Benson, Roger B. J.; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia; Hall, Mike

2012-01-01

hallmark ‘Gondwanan’ fauna of South America and Africa may therefore reflect climate-driven provinciality, not vicariant evolution driven by continental fragmentation. However, vicariance may still be detected at lower phylogenetic levels. PMID:22615916

Impact of wind-driven rain on historic brick wall buildings in a moderately cold and humid climate: Numerical analyses of mould growth risk, indoor climate and energy consumption

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Masaru, Abuku; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

2009-01-01

This paper gives an onset to whole building hygrothermal modelling in which the interaction between interior and exterior climates via building enclosures is simulated under a moderately cold and humid climate. The focus is particularly on the impact of wind-driven rain (WDR) oil the hygrothermal...... response, mould growth at interior wall surfaces, indoor climate and energy consumption. First the WDR load oil the facades of a 4 m x 4 m x 10 m tower is determined. Then the hygrothermal behaviour of the brick walls is analysed oil a horizontal slice through the tower. The simulations demonstrate...

Spectrum of resistivity gradient driven turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Terry, P.W.; Diamond, P.H.; Shaing, K.C.; Garcia, L.; Carreras, B.A.

1986-01-01

The resistivity fluctuation correlation function and electrostatic potential spectrum of resistivity gradient driven turbulence are calculated analytically and compared to the results of three dimensional numerical calculations. Resistivity gradient driven turbulence is characterized by effective Reynolds' numbers of order unity. Steady-state solution of the renormalized spectrum equations yields an electrostatic potential spectrum (circumflex phi 2 )/sub ktheta/ approx. k/sub theta//sup -3.25/. Agreement of the analytically calculated potential spectrum and mean-square radial velocity with the results of multiple helicity numerical calculations is excellent. This comparison constitutes a quantitative test of the analytical turbulence theory used. The spectrum of magnetic fluctuations is also calculated, and agrees well with that obtained from the numerical computations. 13 refs., 8 figs

Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed.

Science.gov (United States)

Todd, Andrew S; Manning, Andrew H; Verplanck, Philip L; Crouch, Caitlin; McKnight, Diane M; Dunham, Ryan

2012-09-04

A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100-400% (400-2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO(4) and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2-1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.

Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

Science.gov (United States)

Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

2017-01-01

The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon Mark Scriber

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes.

Science.gov (United States)

Scriber, Jon Mark

2013-12-24

Comprising 50%-75% of the world's fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience) may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including "invasive species" in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. "Invasive genes" (into new species and populations) need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. "Genetic rescue" via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae) with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes) and recent (3-decade) climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced "reshuffling" (recombinations) of species composition, genotypes, and genomes may become

Climate change and human colonization triggered habitat loss and fragmentation in Madagascar.

Science.gov (United States)

Salmona, Jordi; Heller, Rasmus; Quéméré, Erwan; Chikhi, Lounès

2017-10-01

The relative effect of past climate fluctuations and anthropogenic activities on current biome distribution is subject to increasing attention, notably in biodiversity hot spots. In Madagascar, where humans arrived in the last ~4 to 5,000 years, the exact causes of the demise of large vertebrates that cohabited with humans are yet unclear. The prevailing narrative holds that Madagascar was covered with forest before human arrival and that the expansion of grasslands was the result of human-driven deforestation. However, recent studies have shown that vegetation and fauna structure substantially fluctuated during the Holocene. Here, we study the Holocene history of habitat fragmentation in the north of Madagascar using a population genetics approach. To do so, we infer the demographic history of two northern Madagascar neighbouring, congeneric and critically endangered forest dwelling lemur species-Propithecus tattersalli and Propithecus perrieri-using population genetic analyses. Our results highlight the necessity to consider population structure and changes in connectivity in demographic history inferences. We show that both species underwent demographic fluctuations which most likely occurred after the mid-Holocene transition. While mid-Holocene climate change probably triggered major demographic changes in the two lemur species range and connectivity, human settlements that expanded over the last four millennia in northern Madagascar likely played a role in the loss and fragmentation of the forest cover. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Measurements of fluctuations in the flux of runaway electrons to the PLT limiter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnes, C.W.; Strachan, J.D.

1982-07-01

Fluctuations in the flux of runaway electrons to the limiter have been measured during many PLT discharges. Oscillations at 60, 120, and 720 Hz are driven by variations in the vertical magnetic field which moves the plasma major radius. Fluctuations are seen in the range of 2 → 20 kHz due to MHD magnetic islands which extend to the plasma surface. A continuous spectrum of fluctuations is observed up to 200 kHz which correlates with drift-wave turbulence. The magnitude of the driven fluctuations can be used to measure transport properties of the runaway electrons. The amplitude of electron motion due to the MHD and drift-wave oscillations, and hence a measure of the radial size of the instability, can be determined as a function of frequency. The slope of the frequency power spectrum of the drift-wave-induced fluctuations steepens with increasing runaway electron drift orbit displacement during the current drop at the end of the discharge, and as the power in the MHD oscillations increases. A magnetic probe was used to confirm the presence of oscillating magnetic fields capable of perturbing the electron orbits

Evolution of the earliest horses driven by climate change in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

Science.gov (United States)

Secord, Ross; Bloch, Jonathan I; Chester, Stephen G B; Boyer, Doug M; Wood, Aaron R; Wing, Scott L; Kraus, Mary J; McInerney, Francesca A; Krigbaum, John

2012-02-24

Body size plays a critical role in mammalian ecology and physiology. Previous research has shown that many mammals became smaller during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), but the timing and magnitude of that change relative to climate change have been unclear. A high-resolution record of continental climate and equid body size change shows a directional size decrease of ~30% over the first ~130,000 years of the PETM, followed by a ~76% increase in the recovery phase of the PETM. These size changes are negatively correlated with temperature inferred from oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth and were probably driven by shifts in temperature and possibly high atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. These findings could be important for understanding mammalian evolutionary responses to future global warming.

Modification of boundary fluctuations by LHCD in the HT-7 tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Song Mei; Wan Baonian; Xu Guosheng; Ling Bili

2003-01-01

Measurements of boundary fluctuations and fluctuation driven electron fluxes have been performed in ohmic and lower hybrid current drive enhanced confinement plasma using a graphite Langmuir probe array on HT-7 tokamak. The fluctuations are significantly suppressed and the turbulent fluxes are remarkably depressed in the enhanced plasma. We characterized the statistical properties of fluctuations and the particle flux and found a non-Gaussian character in the whole scrape-off layer with minimum deviations from Gaussian in the proximity of the velocity shear layer in ohmic plasma. In the enhanced plasma the deviations in the boundary region are all reduces obviously. The fluctuations and induced electron fluxes show sporadic bursts asymmetric in time and the asymmetry is remarkably weakened in the lower hybrid current driving (LHCD) phase. The results suggest a coupling between the statistical behaviour of fluctuations and the turbulent flow

Charge Fluctuations in Nanoscale Capacitors

Science.gov (United States)

Limmer, David T.; Merlet, Céline; Salanne, Mathieu; Chandler, David; Madden, Paul A.; van Roij, René; Rotenberg, Benjamin

2013-09-01

The fluctuations of the charge on an electrode contain information on the microscopic correlations within the adjacent fluid and their effect on the electronic properties of the interface. We investigate these fluctuations using molecular dynamics simulations in a constant-potential ensemble with histogram reweighting techniques. This approach offers, in particular, an efficient, accurate, and physically insightful route to the differential capacitance that is broadly applicable. We demonstrate these methods with three different capacitors: pure water between platinum electrodes and a pure as well as a solvent-based organic electrolyte each between graphite electrodes. The total charge distributions with the pure solvent and solvent-based electrolytes are remarkably Gaussian, while in the pure ionic liquid the total charge distribution displays distinct non-Gaussian features, suggesting significant potential-driven changes in the organization of the interfacial fluid.

Charge fluctuations in nanoscale capacitors.

Science.gov (United States)

Limmer, David T; Merlet, Céline; Salanne, Mathieu; Chandler, David; Madden, Paul A; van Roij, René; Rotenberg, Benjamin

2013-09-06

The fluctuations of the charge on an electrode contain information on the microscopic correlations within the adjacent fluid and their effect on the electronic properties of the interface. We investigate these fluctuations using molecular dynamics simulations in a constant-potential ensemble with histogram reweighting techniques. This approach offers, in particular, an efficient, accurate, and physically insightful route to the differential capacitance that is broadly applicable. We demonstrate these methods with three different capacitors: pure water between platinum electrodes and a pure as well as a solvent-based organic electrolyte each between graphite electrodes. The total charge distributions with the pure solvent and solvent-based electrolytes are remarkably Gaussian, while in the pure ionic liquid the total charge distribution displays distinct non-Gaussian features, suggesting significant potential-driven changes in the organization of the interfacial fluid.

Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

2011-01-10

Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Naomi J Fox

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

Multifractal fluctuations in joint angles during infant spontaneous kicking reveal multiplicativity-driven coordination

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stephen, Damian G.; Hsu, Wen-Hao; Young, Diana; Saltzman, Elliot L.; Holt, Kenneth G.; Newman, Dava J.; Weinberg, Marc; Wood, Robert J.; Nagpal, Radhika; Goldfield, Eugene C.

2012-01-01

Previous research has considered infant spontaneous kicking as a form of exploration. According to this view, spontaneous kicking provides information about motor degrees of freedom and may shape multijoint coordinations for more complex movement patterns such as gait. Recent work has demonstrated that multifractal, multiplicative fluctuations in exploratory movements index energy flows underlying perceptual-motor information. If infant spontaneous kicking is exploratory and occasions an upstream flow of information from the motor periphery, we expected not only that multiplicativity of fluctuations at the hip should promote multiplicativity of fluctuations at more distal joints (i.e., reflecting downstream effects of neural control) but also that multiplicativity at more distal joints should promote multiplicativity at the hip. Multifractal analysis demonstrated that infant spontaneous kicking in four typically developing infants for evidence of multiplicative fluctuations in multiple joint angles along the leg (i.e., hip, knee, and ankle) exhibited multiplicativity. Vector autoregressive modeling demonstrated that only one leg exhibited downstream effects but that both legs exhibited upstream effects. These results confirm the exploratory aspect of infant spontaneous kicking and suggest chaotic dynamics in motor coordination. They also resonate with existing models of chaos-controlled robotics and noise-based interventions for rehabilitating motor coordination in atypically developing patients.

Information theory explanation of the fluctuation theorem, maximum entropy production and self-organized criticality in non-equilibrium stationary states

CERN Document Server

Dewar, R

2003-01-01

Jaynes' information theory formalism of statistical mechanics is applied to the stationary states of open, non-equilibrium systems. First, it is shown that the probability distribution p subGAMMA of the underlying microscopic phase space trajectories GAMMA over a time interval of length tau satisfies p subGAMMA propor to exp(tau sigma subGAMMA/2k sub B) where sigma subGAMMA is the time-averaged rate of entropy production of GAMMA. Three consequences of this result are then derived: (1) the fluctuation theorem, which describes the exponentially declining probability of deviations from the second law of thermodynamics as tau -> infinity; (2) the selection principle of maximum entropy production for non-equilibrium stationary states, empirical support for which has been found in studies of phenomena as diverse as the Earth's climate and crystal growth morphology; and (3) the emergence of self-organized criticality for flux-driven systems in the slowly-driven limit. The explanation of these results on general inf...

Glacial greenhouse-gas fluctuations controlled by ocean circulation changes.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmittner, Andreas; Galbraith, Eric D

2008-11-20

Earth's climate and the concentrations of the atmospheric greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and nitrous oxide (N(2)O) varied strongly on millennial timescales during past glacial periods. Large and rapid warming events in Greenland and the North Atlantic were followed by more gradual cooling, and are highly correlated with fluctuations of N(2)O as recorded in ice cores. Antarctic temperature variations, on the other hand, were smaller and more gradual, showed warming during the Greenland cold phase and cooling while the North Atlantic was warm, and were highly correlated with fluctuations in CO(2). Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) have often been invoked to explain the physical characteristics of these Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations, but the mechanisms for the greenhouse-gas variations and their linkage to the AMOC have remained unclear. Here we present simulations with a coupled model of glacial climate and biogeochemical cycles, forced only with changes in the AMOC. The model simultaneously reproduces characteristic features of the Dansgaard-Oeschger temperature, as well as CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations. Despite significant changes in the land carbon inventory, CO(2) variations on millennial timescales are dominated by slow changes in the deep ocean inventory of biologically sequestered carbon and are correlated with Antarctic temperature and Southern Ocean stratification. In contrast, N(2)O co-varies more rapidly with Greenland temperatures owing to fast adjustments of the thermocline oxygen budget. These results suggest that ocean circulation changes were the primary mechanism that drove glacial CO(2) and N(2)O fluctuations on millennial timescales.

Fluctuating Asymmetry of Human Populations: A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John H. Graham

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Fluctuating asymmetry, the random deviation from perfect symmetry, is a widely used population-level index of developmental instability, developmental noise, and robustness. It reflects a population’s state of adaptation and genomic coadaptation. Here, we review the literature on fluctuating asymmetry of human populations. The most widely used bilateral traits include skeletal, dental, and facial dimensions; dermatoglyphic patterns and ridge counts; and facial shape. Each trait has its advantages and disadvantages, but results are most robust when multiple traits are combined into a composite index of fluctuating asymmetry (CFA. Both environmental (diet, climate, toxins and genetic (aneuploidy, heterozygosity, inbreeding stressors have been linked to population-level variation in fluctuating asymmetry. In general, these stressors increase average fluctuating asymmetry. Nevertheless, there have been many conflicting results, in part because (1 fluctuating asymmetry is a weak signal in a sea of noise; and (2 studies of human fluctuating asymmetry have not always followed best practices. The most serious concerns are insensitive asymmetry indices (correlation coefficient and coefficient of indetermination, inappropriate size scaling, unrecognized mixture distributions, inappropriate corrections for directional asymmetry, failure to use composite indices, and inattention to measurement error. Consequently, it is often difficult (or impossible to compare results across traits, and across studies.

Large-scale climatic effects on traditional Hawaiian fishpond aquaculture.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel McCoy

Full Text Available Aquaculture accounts for almost one-half of global fish consumption. Understanding the regional impact of climate fluctuations on aquaculture production thus is critical for the sustainability of this crucial food resource. The objective of this work was to understand the role of climate fluctuations and climate change in subtropical coastal estuarine environments within the context of aquaculture practices in He'eia Fishpond, O'ahu Island, Hawai'i. To the best of our knowledge, this was the first study of climate effects on traditional aquaculture systems in the Hawaiian Islands. Data from adjacent weather stations were analyzed together with in situ water quality instrument deployments spanning a 12-year period (November 2004 -November 2016. We found correlations between two periods with extremely high fish mortality at He'eia Fishpond (May and October 2009 and slackening trade winds in the week preceding each mortality event, as well as surface water temperatures elevated 2-3°C higher than the background periods (March-December 2009. We posit that the lack of trade wind-driven surface water mixing enhanced surface heating and stratification of the water column, leading to hypoxic conditions and stress on fish populations, which had limited ability to move within net pen enclosures. Elevated water temperature and interruption of trade winds previously have been linked to the onset of El Niño in Hawai'i. Our results provide empirical evidence regarding El Niño effects on the coastal ocean, which can inform resource management efforts about potential impact of climate variation on aquaculture production. Finally, we provide recommendations for reducing the impact of warming events on fishponds, as these events are predicted to increase in magnitude and frequency as a consequence of global warming.

Photoinduced Coherent Spin Fluctuation in Primary Dynamics of Insulator to Metal Transition in Perovskite Cobalt Oxide

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arima T.

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Coherent spin fluctuation was detected in the photoinduced Mott insulator-metal transition in perovskite cobalt oxide by using 3 optical-cycle infrared pulse. Such coherent spin fluctuation is driven by the perovskite distortion changing orbital gap.

Early Holocene hydroclimate of Baffin Bay: Understanding the interplay between abrupt climate change events and ice sheet fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Corcoran, M. C.; Thomas, E. K.; Castañeda, I. S.; Briner, J. P.

2017-12-01

Understanding the causes of ice sheet fluctuations resulting in sea level rise is essential in today's warming climate. In high-latitude ice-sheet-proximal environments such as Baffin Bay, studying both the cause and the rate of ice sheet variability during past abrupt climate change events aids in predictions. Past climate reconstructions are used to understand ice sheet responses to changes in temperature and precipitation. The 9,300 and 8,200 yr BP events are examples of abrupt climate change events in the Baffin Bay region during which there were multiple re-advances of the Greenland and Laurentide ice sheets. High-resolution (decadal-scale) hydroclimate variability near the ice sheet margins during these abrupt climate change events is still unknown. We will generate a decadal-scale record of early Holocene temperature and precipitation using leaf wax hydrogen isotopes, δ2Hwax, from a lake sediment archive on Baffin Island, western Baffin Bay, to better understand abrupt climate change in this region. Shifts in temperature and moisture source result in changes in environmental water δ2H, which in turn is reflected in δ2Hwax, allowing for past hydroclimate to be determined from these compound-specific isotopes. The combination of terrestrial and aquatic δ2Hwax is used to determine soil evaporation and is ultimately used to reconstruct moisture variability. We will compare our results with a previous analysis of δ2Hwax and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers, a temperature and pH proxy, in lake sediment from western Greenland, eastern Baffin Bay, which indicates that cool and dry climate occurred in response to freshwater forcing events in the Labrador Sea. Reconstructing and comparing records on both the western and eastern sides of Baffin Bay during the early Holocene will allow for a spatial understanding of temperature and moisture balance changes during abrupt climate events, aiding in ice sheet modeling and predictions of future sea level

Holocene climatic fluctuations from Lower Brahmaputra flood plain ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

BP which is well-matched with the peak period of the Holocene climatic optimum. However, during ... Warm Period and Little Ice Age (LIA) in this ... The maximum temperature is 30.4 ..... V 2007 Climatic changes during the last 1800 yrs from.

Near resonant absorption by atoms in intense, fluctuating fields: [Progress report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

During the present grant period preparations for photon echo studies of the role of phase fluctuations of an optical driving field resonant with the 1 S 0 - 3 P 1 transition in 174 Yb are moving forward. This experimental study emphasizes the role of fluctuations as a decorrelating mechanism on a phased array of excited atoms. Improvements in laser stabilization and in the quality of the fluctuation spectrum have been carried out and the first spectroscopic measurements will be carried out during this grant year. In response to an important recent theoretical study we have also applied the phase fluctuation synthesizing capability to the study of the atomic sodium resonance fluorescence line profile, driven by a phase fluctuating laser. The measured fluctuations in the fluorescence, characterized in terms of the standard deviation of the fluorescence intensity, have an unexpected and strong dependence on detuning of the driving laser

Controlling fluctuations in an ITB and comparison with gyrokinetic simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, D. R.; Fiore, C. L.; Dominguez, A.; Podpaly, Y.; Reinke, M. L.; Terry, J. L.; Tsujii, N.; Bespamyatnov, I.; Churchill, M.; Greenwald, M.; Hubbard, A.; Hughes, J. W.; Lee, J.; Ma, Y.; Wolfe, S.; Wukitch, S.

2011-10-01

We have modulated on-axis ICRF minority heating to trigger fluctuations and core electron transport in Alcator C-Mod Internal Transport Barriers (ITB's). Temperature swings of 50% produced strong bursts of density fluctuations, measured by phase contrast imaging (PCI), while edge fluctuations from reflectometry, Mirnov coils, and gas puff imaging (GPI) simultaneously diminished. The PCI fluctuations are in phase with sawteeth, further evidence that they originate within the ITB foot. Linear gyrokinetic analysis with GS2 shows TEMs are driven unstable in the ITB by the on-axis heating, as in Refs.,. Nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations of turbulence in the ITB are compared with fluctuation data using a synthetic diagnostic. Strong ITB's were produced with high quality ion and electron profile data. Supported by U.S. DoE awards DE-FC02-99ER54512, DE-FG02-91ER54109, DE-FC02-08ER54966.

Energy and Heat Fluctuations in a Temperature Quench

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zannetti, M.; Corberi, F. [Dipartimento di Fisica “E. Caianiello”, and CNISM, Unità di Salerno, Università di Salerno, via Giovanni Paolo II 132, 84084 Fisciano (Italy); Gonnella, G. [Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Bari and INFN, Sezione di Bari, via Amendola 173, 70126 Bari (Italy); Piscitelli, A., E-mail: mrc.zannetti@gmail.com, E-mail: corberi@sa.infn.it, E-mail: gonnella@ba.infn.it, E-mail: antps@hotmial.it [Division of Physical Sciences, School of Physical and Mathematical Sciences, Nanyang Technological University, 21 Nanyang Link, 637371 (Singapore)

2014-10-15

Fluctuations of energy and heat are investigated during the relaxation following the instantaneous temperature quench of an extended system. Results are obtained analytically for the Gaussian model and for the large N model quenched below the critical temperature T{sub c}. The main finding is that fluctuations exceeding a critical threshold do condense. Though driven by a mechanism similar to that of Bose—Einstein condensation, this phenomenon is an out-of-equilibrium feature produced by the breaking of energy equipartition occurring in the transient regime. The dynamical nature of the transition is illustrated by phase diagrams extending in the time direction. (general)

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, David D; Brecke, Peter; Lee, Harry F; He, Yuan-Qing; Zhang, Jane

2007-12-04

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war-peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.

Stable isotope ratios in swale sequences of Lake Superior as indicators of climate and lake level fluctuations during the Late Holocene

Science.gov (United States)

Sharma, Shruti; Mora, G.; Johnston, J.W.; Thompson, T.A.

2005-01-01

Beach ridges along the coastline of Lake Superior provide a long-term and detailed record of lake level fluctuations for the past 4000 cal BP. Although climate change has been invoked to explain these fluctuations, its role is still in debate. Here, we reconstruct water balance by employing peat samples collected from swale deposits present between beach ridge sequences at two locations along the coastline of Lake Superior. Carbon isotope ratios for Sphagnum remains from these peat deposits are used as a proxy for water balance because the presence or absence of water films on Sphagnum controls the overall isotope discrimination effects. Consequently, increased average water content in Sphagnum produces elevated ??13C values. Two maxima of Sphagnum ??13C values interpreted to reflect wetter conditions prevailed from 3400 to 2400 cal BP and from about 1900 to 1400 cal BP. There are two relatively short drier periods as inferred from low Sphagnum ??13C values: one is centered at about 2300 cal BP, and one begins at 1400 cal BP. A good covariance was found between Sphagnum ??13C values and reconstructed lake-levels for Lake Michigan in which elevated carbon isotope values correlate well with higher lake levels. Based on this covariance, we conclude that climate exerts a strong influence on lake levels in Lake Superior for the past 4000 cal BP. ?? 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Glacial Fluctuation in the Source Region of the Yangtze River

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shengyi, Gao; Qingsong, Fan; Xi, Cao; Li, Ma

2014-01-01

Glaciers in the source region of the Yangtze River are not only water resources but also important energy and environmental resources. Glacial fluctuation is an important component of the study of changes in the natural environment, including climate change. We investigated the glaciers in the source region of the Yangtze River, and analyzed the fluctuations using multi-temporal remote sensing data. The trend in glacial fluctuation and the factors that influence it were determined. The results have implications for water resource management and environmental conservation in the Yangtze River region

Youth Climate Summits: Empowering & Engaging Youth to Lead on Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Kretser, J.

2017-12-01

The Wild Center's Youth Climate Summits is a program that engages youth in climate literacy from knowledge and understanding to developing action in their schools and communities. Each Youth Climate Summit is a one to three day event that brings students and teachers together to learn about climate change science, impacts and solutions at a global and local level. Through speakers, workshops and activities, the Summit culminates in a student-driven Climate Action Plan that can be brought back to schools and communities. The summits have been found to be powerful vehicles for inspiration, learning, community engagement and youth leadership development. Climate literacy with a focus on local climate impacts and solutions is a key component of the Youth Climate Summit. The project-based learning surrounding the creation of a unique, student driven, sustainability and Climate Action Plan promotes leadership skills applicable and the tools necessary for a 21st Century workforce. Student driven projects range from school gardens and school energy audits to working with NYS officials to commit to going 100% renewable electricty at the three state-owned downhill ski facilities. The summit model has been scaled and replicated in other communities in New York State, Vermont, Ohio, Michigan and Washington states as well as internationally in Finland, Germany and Sri Lanka.

Fluctuation theorems and orbital magnetism in nonequilibrium state

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

We study Langevin dynamics of a driven charged particle in the presence as well as in the absence of magnetic field. We discuss the validity of various work fluctuation theorems using different model potentials and external drives. We also show that one can generate an orbital magnetic moment in a nonequilibrium state ...

Collaborative Project: The problem of bias in defining uncertainty in computationally enabled strategies for data-driven climate model development. Final Technical Report.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Huerta, Gabriel [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-05-10

The objective of the project is to develop strategies for better representing scientific sensibilities within statistical measures of model skill that then can be used within a Bayesian statistical framework for data-driven climate model development and improved measures of model scientific uncertainty. One of the thorny issues in model evaluation is quantifying the effect of biases on climate projections. While any bias is not desirable, only those biases that affect feedbacks affect scatter in climate projections. The effort at the University of Texas is to analyze previously calculated ensembles of CAM3.1 with perturbed parameters to discover how biases affect projections of global warming. The hypothesis is that compensating errors in the control model can be identified by their effect on a combination of processes and that developing metrics that are sensitive to dependencies among state variables would provide a way to select version of climate models that may reduce scatter in climate projections. Gabriel Huerta at the University of New Mexico is responsible for developing statistical methods for evaluating these field dependencies. The UT effort will incorporate these developments into MECS, which is a set of python scripts being developed at the University of Texas for managing the workflow associated with data-driven climate model development over HPC resources. This report reflects the main activities at the University of New Mexico where the PI (Huerta) and the Postdocs (Nosedal, Hattab and Karki) worked on the project.

Spectra of turbulent static pressure fluctuations in jet mixing layers

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, B. G.; Adrian, R. J.; Nithianandan, C. K.; Planchon, H. P., Jr.

1977-01-01

Spectral similarity laws are derived for the power spectra of turbulent static pressure fluctuations by application of dimensional analysis in the limit of large turbulent Reynolds number. The theory predicts that pressure spectra are generated by three distinct types of interaction in the velocity fields: a fourth order interaction between fluctuating velocities, an interaction between the first order mean shear and the third order velocity fluctuations, and an interaction between the second order mean shear rate and the second order fluctuating velocity. Measurements of one-dimensional power spectra of the turbulent static pressure fluctuations in the driven mixing layer of a subsonic, circular jet are presented, and the spectra are examined for evidence of spectral similarity. Spectral similarity is found for the low wavenumber range when the large scale flow on the centerline of the mixing layer is self-preserving. The data are also consistent with the existence of universal inertial subranges for the spectra of each interaction mode.

Manifestly non-Gaussian fluctuations in superconductor-normal metal tunnel nanostructures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Laakso, Matti [Institut fuer Theorie der Statistischen Physik, RWTH Aachen University, Aachen (Germany); Low Temperature Laboratory, Aalto University, Espoo (Finland); Heikkilae, Tero [Low Temperature Laboratory, Aalto University, Espoo (Finland); Nazarov, Yuli [Kavli Institute of Nanoscience, Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)

2013-07-01

Recently, temperature fluctuation statistics has been studied in non-interacting islands and overheated single-electron transistors. We propose a mesoscopic setup which exhibits strong and manifestly non-Gaussian fluctuations of energy and temperature when suitably driven out of equilibrium. The setup consists of a normal metal island (N) coupled by tunnel junctions (I) to two superconducting leads (S), forming a SINIS structure, and is biased near the threshold voltage for quasiparticle tunneling, eV ∼ 2Δ. The fluctuations can be measured by monitoring the time-dependent electric current through the system, which makes the setup suitable for the realization of feedback schemes which allow to stabilize the temperature to the desired value.

Beyond Tree Throw: Wind, Water, Rock and the Mechanics of Tree-Driven Bedrock Physical Weathering

Science.gov (United States)

Marshall, J. A.; Anderson, R. S.; Dawson, T. E.; Dietrich, W. E.; Minear, J. T.

2017-12-01

Tree throw is often invoked as the dominant process in converting bedrock to soil and thus helping to build the Critical Zone (CZ). In addition, observations of tree roots lifting sidewalk slabs, occupying cracks, and prying slabs of rock from cliff faces have led to a general belief in the power of plant growth forces. These common observations have led to conceptual models with trees at the center of the soil genesis process. This is despite the observation that tree throw is rare in many forested settings, and a dearth of field measurements that quantify the magnitude of growth forces. While few trees blow down, every tree grows roots, inserting many tens of percent of its mass below ground. Yet we lack data quantifying the role of trees in both damaging bedrock and detaching it (and thus producing soil). By combing force measurements at the tree-bedrock interface with precipitation, solar radiation, wind speed, and wind-driven tree sway data we quantified the magnitude and frequency of tree-driven soil-production mechanisms from two contrasting climatic and lithologic regimes (Boulder and Eel Creek CZ Observatories). Preliminary data suggests that in settings with relatively thin soils, trees can damage and detach rock due to diurnal fluctuations, wind response and rainfall events. Surprisingly, our data suggests that forces from roots and trunks growing against bedrock are insufficient to pry rock apart or damage bedrock although much more work is needed in this area. The frequency, magnitude and style of wind-driven tree forces at the bedrock interface varies considerably from one to another species. This suggests that tree properties such as mass, elasticity, stiffness and branch structure determine whether trees respond to gusts big or small, move at the same frequency as large wind gusts, or are able to self-dampen near-ground sway response to extended wind forces. Our measurements of precipitation-driven and daily fluctuations in root pressures exerted on

Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Osadolor Ebhuoma

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

2016-06-14

Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

Cross-site comparisons of concentration-discharge relationships reveal climate-driven chemostatic set points

Science.gov (United States)

Godsey, S.; Kirchner, J. W.

2017-12-01

Streamflow solute concentrations often vary predictably with flows, providing insight into processes controlling solute generation and export. Previous work by the authors showed that log-transformed concentration-discharge relationships of weathering-derived solutes in 59 headwater catchments had relatively low slopes, implying that these watersheds behaved almost like chemostats. That is, their rates of solute production and/or mobilization were nearly proportional to water fluxes, on both event and inter-annual time scales. Here we re-examine these findings using data from roughly 1000 catchments, ranging from ˜10 to >1,000,000 sq. km in drainage area, and spanning a wide range of lithologic and climatic settings.Concentration-discharge relationships among this much larger set of much larger catchments are broadly consistent with the chemostatic behavior described above. However, site-to-site variations in mean concentrations among these catchments are negatively correlated with long-term average precipitation and discharge, suggesting dilution of stream concentrations under long-term leaching of the critical zone. Thus, on event and inter-annual time scales, stream solute concentrations are chemostatically buffered by groundwater storage and fast chemical reactions (such as ion exchange), but on much longer time scales, the catchment's chemostatic "set point" is determined by climatically driven critical zone evolution. We present examples illustrating short-term and long-term controls on water quality consistent with variations in weather and climate, and discuss their implications.

Current climate and climate change over India as simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

Alexandru, Adelina; Sushama, Laxmi

2015-08-01

The performance of the fifth generation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) in reproducing the main climatic characteristics over India during the southwest (SW)-, post- and pre-monsoon seasons are presented in this article. To assess the performance of CRCM5, European Centre for Medium- Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re- Analysis (ERA- 40) and Interim re-analysis (ERA-Interim) driven CRCM5 simulation is compared against independent observations and reanalysis data for the 1971-2000 period. Projected changes for two future periods, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, with respect to the 1971-2000 current period are assessed based on two transient climate change simulations of CRCM5 spanning the 1950-2100 period. These two simulations are driven by the Canadian Earth System Model version 2 (CanESM2) and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Low Resolution Model (MPI-ESM-LR), respectively. The boundary forcing errors associated with errors in the driving global climate models are also studied by comparing the 1971-2000 period of the CanESM2 and MPI-ESM-LR driven simulations with that of the CRCM5 simulation driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim. Results show that CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is in general able to capture well the temporal and spatial patterns of 2 m-temperature, precipitation, wind, sea level pressure, total runoff and soil moisture over India in comparison with available reanalysis and observations. However, some noticeable differences between the model and observational data were found during the SW-monsoon season within the domain of integration. CRCM5 driven by ERA-40/ERA-Interim is 1-2 °C colder than CRU observations and generates more precipitation over the Western Ghats and central regions of India, and not enough in the northern and north-eastern parts of India and along the Konkan west coast in comparison with the observed precipitation. The monsoon onset seems to be relatively well captured over the southwestern coast of

Climate-driven Sympatry does not Lead to Foraging Competition Between Adélie and Gentoo Penguins

Science.gov (United States)

Cimino, M. A.; Moline, M. A.; Fraser, W.; Patterson-Fraser, D.; Oliver, M. J.

2016-02-01

Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species, population shifts and changes in ecosystem structure. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. At Palmer Station, we tested for foraging competition between these species by comparing their prey, Antarctic krill, distributions and penguin foraging behaviors on fine scales. To study these predator-prey dynamics, we simultaneously deployed penguin satellite transmitters, and a REMUS autonomous underwater vehicle that acoustically detected krill aggregations and measured physical and biological properties of the water column. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguin. In the upper 100 m of the water column, the distribution of krill aggregations were mainly associated with CHL and light, suggesting that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. Adélie and gentoo penguins mainly had spatially segregated foraging areas but in areas of overlap, gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is the major driver of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories.

Queues and Lévy fluctuation theory

CERN Document Server

Dębicki, Krzysztof

2015-01-01

The book provides an extensive introduction to queueing models driven by Lévy-processes as well as a systematic account of the literature on Lévy-driven queues. The objective is to make the reader familiar with the wide set of probabilistic techniques that have been developed over the past decades, including transform-based techniques, martingales, rate-conservation arguments, change-of-measure, importance sampling, and large deviations. On the application side, it demonstrates how Lévy traffic models arise when modelling current queueing-type systems (as communication networks) and includes applications to finance. Queues and Lévy Fluctuation Theory will appeal to graduate/postgraduate students and researchers in mathematics, computer science, and electrical engineering. Basic prerequisites are probability theory and stochastic processes.

Fluctuation theorems and atypical trajectories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sahoo, M; Lahiri, S; Jayannavar, A M

2011-01-01

In this work, we have studied simple models that can be solved analytically to illustrate various fluctuation theorems. These fluctuation theorems provide symmetries individually to the distributions of physical quantities such as the classical work (W c ), thermodynamic work (W), total entropy (Δs tot ) and dissipated heat (Q), when the system is driven arbitrarily out of equilibrium. All these quantities can be defined for individual trajectories. We have studied the number of trajectories which exhibit behaviour unexpected at the macroscopic level. As the time of observation increases, the fraction of such atypical trajectories decreases, as expected at the macroscale. The distributions for the thermodynamic work and entropy production in nonlinear models may exhibit a peak (most probable value) in the atypical regime without violating the expected average behaviour. However, dissipated heat and classical work exhibit a peak in the regime of typical behaviour only.

Radiocarbon dating and Dendrochronology for Statigraphic Units near Tebano, Senio Northern Apennines - Time frame of Climatic Fluctuation at the onset of the Younger Dryas

Science.gov (United States)

Eggenschwiler, Loren; Hajdas, Irka; Cherubini, Paolo; Picotti, Vincenzo; Saurer, Matthias

2017-04-01

The presence of Pinus [sylvestris] provides an insight into dramatic events due to climatic changes. Several major and minor climatic fluctuations have had a strong impact on terrestrial and marine environments since the last glacial period to present day (Ravazzi et al. 2006). This study aims to describe the response of a fluvial environment through the use of dendrochronology and stratigraphy. Here, we intend to get a better understanding of how these climatic fluctuations affect the behavior of the Senio River (Lotter et al. 1992). In Tebano, Italy, several Pinus sylvestris subfossil trunks were discovered during excavation for an irrigation pool. Subfossil samples were collected to analyze the climate during the Younger Dryas (11,000 years BP) in detail. Charcoal samples from the Bubano clay quarry extend our research to further to 35,500 cal. years BP. The combination of dendrochronology along with stratigraphy allowed us to examine the climate at a detailed local and apply it to a broader spectrum. Tree-ring measurements and cross dating provided a better understanding and verification of extreme events that occurred during the lifespans of the trees. The use of stable isotopes indicates the extreme conditions that occurred. Radiocarbon dating validates the age of the samples and what geological period they come from. Along with stratigraphy, we were able to compile depth data to create a sediment curve. Using various methods throughout this study, we discovered the climatic situation of Pinus 11,000 years BP and are able to compare them with samples from today. These present day samples mark two of the southernmost extents of the Pinus population. We were then able to comprehend the magnitude of sediment supply and precipitation. Through this collection of methods and data, we are able to understand the influence of climate change in the past and the potential changes of the future. REFERENCES Lotter, A. F.; Eicher, U.; Siegenthaler, U.; Birks, H. J. B

Climate change driven plant-metal-microbe interactions.

Science.gov (United States)

Rajkumar, Mani; Prasad, Majeti Narasimha Vara; Swaminathan, Sandhya; Freitas, Helena

2013-03-01

Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico-chemico-biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO₂, temperature and drought influence the plant-metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant-microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant-metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Forkel

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1. SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with

A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1)

Science.gov (United States)

Forkel, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Lasslop, Gitta; Teubner, Irene; Chuvieco, Emilio; Thonicke, Kirsten

2017-12-01

Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven

Current-driven turbulence in plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kluiver, H. de.

1977-10-01

Research on plasma heating in linear and toroidal systems using current-driven turbulence is reviewed. The motivation for this research is presented. Relations between parameters describing the turbulent plasma state and macroscopic observables are given. Several linear and toroidal devices used in current-driven turbulence studies are described, followed by a discussion of special diagnostic methods used. Experimental results on the measurement of electron and ion heating, anomalous plasma conductivity and associated turbulent fluctuation spectra are reviewed. Theories on current-driven turbulence are discussed and compared with experiments. It is demonstrated from the experimental results that current-driven turbulence occurs not only for extreme values of the electric field but also for an experimentally much more accessible and wide range of parameters. This forms a basis for a discussion on possible future applications in fusion-oriented plasma research

Orbital forcing of climate 1.4 billion years ago

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhang, Shuichang; Wang, Xiaomei; Hammarlund, Emma U

2015-01-01

Fluctuating climate is a hallmark of Earth. As one transcends deep into Earth time, however, both the evidence for and the causes of climate change become difficult to establish. We report geochemical and sedimentological evidence for repeated, short-term climate fluctuations from the exceptionally...... well-preserved ∼1.4-billion-year-old Xiamaling Formation of the North China Craton. We observe two patterns of climate fluctuations: On long time scales, over what amounts to tens of millions of years, sediments of the Xiamaling Formation record changes in geochemistry consistent with long-term changes...... reflect what appear to be orbitally forced changes in wind patterns and ocean circulation as they influenced rates of organic carbon flux, trace metal accumulation, and the source of detrital particles to the sediment....

Climate and atmospheric research

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kramer, G.; Schumacher, R.

1992-01-01

This issue of the scientific journal of the Humboldt university is dedicated to results of research work carried out to the greatest extent at the meteorological institute in the last two years on the area of climate and atmospheric research. The traditional research areas of the institute are climatology and the dynamics of the atmosphere, in particular the atmospherical boundary layer. Considering the high probability of a global climatic fluctuation due to the anthropogenic change of composition of the atmosphere and other climate-relevant factors imminent in the next century, climatological research today is an important part of global and regional environmental research. From the necessity of determination and evaluation of the effect of climatic fluctuations on nature and society the contours of a new interdisciplinary research area are already visible now. This is suitable as hardly any other area to be the supporting idea of environmental research at universities. The contributions contained in the issue already consider, in addition to results on climate diagnosis, also results on aspects of climate effect research. (orig./KW) [de

Gravity wave-driven fluctuations in OH nightglow from an extended, dissipative emission region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schubert, G.; Walterscheid, R.L.; Hickey, M.P.

1991-01-01

The theory of gravity wave-driven fluctuations in the OH nightglow from an extended source region is generalized to account for effects of eddy kinematic viscosity v and eddy thermal diffusivity κ. In the nondiffusive case, the amplitudes and phases of vertically integrated normalized intensity (δI)/(bar I) and temperature (δT 1 )/(bar T 1 ) perturbations and vertically integrated Krassovsky's ratio (η) as functions of period are influenced by the upper limit of vertical integration of the extended source, especially at long periods when vertical wavelengths γ v are small. The effects, which include oscillations in (δT)/(bar I), (δT 1 )/(bar T 1 ), and (η), particularly at long periods, are due to constructive and destructive interference of nightglow signals from vertically separated levels of the OH emitting region that occur when γ v is comparable to or smaller than the thickness of the main emission region. The sensitivity of these ratios to the upper limit of vertical integration occurs because of the relatively small rate of decay of the intensity of OH emission with height above the peak emission level and the exponential growth with altitude of nondissipative gravity waves. Because eddy diffusion increases γ v , especially at long periods, and reduces wave growth with height compared with the case v = κ = 0, inclusion of eddy diffusion removes the sensitivity of (η) and the other ratios ot the maximum height of vertical integration. It is essential to account for both eddy diffusion and emission from the entire vertically extended emission region to correctly predict (η), (δI)/(bar I), and (δT 1 )/(bar T 1 ) at long gravity wave periods

Three dimensional numerical simulation of a full scale CANDU reactor moderator to study temperature fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarchami, Araz; Ashgriz, Nasser; Kwee, Marc

2014-01-01

Highlights: • 3D model of a Candu reactor is modeled to investigate flow distribution. • The results show the temperature distribution is not symmetrical. • Temperature contours show the hot regions at the top left-hand side of the tank. • Interactions of momentum flows and buoyancy flows create circulation zones. • The results indicate that the moderator tank operates in the buoyancy driven mode. -- Abstract: Three dimensional numerical simulations are conducted on a full scale CANDU Moderator and transient variations of the temperature and velocity distributions inside the tank are determined. The results show that the flow and temperature distributions inside the moderator tank are three dimensional and no symmetry plane can be identified. Competition between the upward moving buoyancy driven flows and the downward moving momentum driven flows in the center region of the tank, results in the formation of circulation zones. The moderator tank operates in the buoyancy driven mode and any small disturbances in the flow or temperature makes the system unstable and asymmetric. Different types of temperature fluctuations are noted inside the tank: (i) large amplitude are at the boundaries between the hot and cold; (ii) low amplitude are in the core of the tank; (iii) high frequency fluctuations are in the regions with high velocities and (iv) low frequency fluctuations are in the regions with lower velocities

Holocene glacial fluctuations in southern South America

Science.gov (United States)

Reynhout, S.; Sagredo, E. A.; Kaplan, M. R.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Strelin, J. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

2016-12-01

Understanding the timing and magnitude of former glacier fluctuations is critical to decipher long-term climatic trends and to unravel both natural cycles and human impact on the current glacial behavior. Despite more than seven decades of research efforts, a unifying model of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Southern South America remains elusive. Here, we present the state-of-the-art regarding the timing of Holocene glacial fluctuation in southern Patagonia-Tierra del Fuego, with a focus on a new generation of high-resolution radiocarbon and 10Be surface exposure dating chronologies. Recently acquired evidence suggest that after receding from advanced Late Glacial positions, Patagonian glaciers were for the most part close to, or even behind, present ice margins during the Early Holocene. On the other hand, emerging chronologies indicate that in some areas there were extensive expansions (century scale?) that punctuated the warm interval. Subsequently, we have evidence of multiple millennial timescale glacial advances starting in the middle Holocene. Several glacial maxima are defined by moraines and other landforms from 7000 years ago to the 19th century, with a gap sometime between 4,500 and 2,500 years ago. The last set of advances began around 800-600 years ago. Although glacial activity is documented in Patagonia at the same time as the European Little Ice Age, the extent of these glacial events are less prominent than those of the mid-Holocene. The causes that may explain these glacial fluctuations remain elusive. Finally, we discuss ongoing efforts to better define the timing and extent of Holocene glaciations in southern South America, and to establish the basis to test competing hypothesis of regional Holocene climate variability.

Fluctuating chemohydrodynamics and the stochastic motion of self-diffusiophoretic particles

Science.gov (United States)

Gaspard, Pierre; Kapral, Raymond

2018-04-01

The propulsion of active particles by self-diffusiophoresis is driven by asymmetric catalytic reactions on the particle surface that generate a mechanochemical coupling between the fluid velocity and the concentration fields of fuel and product in the surrounding solution. Because of thermal and molecular fluctuations in the solution, the motion of micrometric or submicrometric active particles is stochastic. Coupled Langevin equations describing the translation, rotation, and reaction of such active particles are deduced from fluctuating chemohydrodynamics and fluctuating boundary conditions at the interface between the fluid and the particle. These equations are consistent with microreversibility and the Onsager-Casimir reciprocal relations between affinities and currents and provide a thermodynamically consistent basis for the investigation of the dynamics of active particles propelled by diffusiophoretic mechanisms.

Fractional Stochastic Differential Equations Satisfying Fluctuation-Dissipation Theorem

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Lei; Liu, Jian-Guo; Lu, Jianfeng

2017-10-01

We propose in this work a fractional stochastic differential equation (FSDE) model consistent with the over-damped limit of the generalized Langevin equation model. As a result of the `fluctuation-dissipation theorem', the differential equations driven by fractional Brownian noise to model memory effects should be paired with Caputo derivatives, and this FSDE model should be understood in an integral form. We establish the existence of strong solutions for such equations and discuss the ergodicity and convergence to Gibbs measure. In the linear forcing regime, we show rigorously the algebraic convergence to Gibbs measure when the `fluctuation-dissipation theorem' is satisfied, and this verifies that satisfying `fluctuation-dissipation theorem' indeed leads to the correct physical behavior. We further discuss possible approaches to analyze the ergodicity and convergence to Gibbs measure in the nonlinear forcing regime, while leave the rigorous analysis for future works. The FSDE model proposed is suitable for systems in contact with heat bath with power-law kernel and subdiffusion behaviors.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

OpenAIRE

Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-01-01

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluate...

Man-Made Climatic Changes

Science.gov (United States)

Landsberg, Helmut E.

1970-01-01

Reviews environmental studies which show that national climatic fluctuations vary over a wide range. Solar radiation, earth temperatures, precipitation, atmospheric gases and suspended particulates are discussed in relation to urban and extraurban effects. Local weather modifications and attempts at climate control by man seem to have substantial…

Role of model structure on the response of soil biogeochemistry to hydro-climatic fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Manzoni, S.; Porporato, A.

2005-05-01

Soil carbon and nutrient cycles are strongly affected by hydro-climatic variability, which interacts with the internal ecosystem structure. Here we test the implications of biogeochemical model structure on such dynamics by extending an existing model by the authors and coworkers. When forced by hydro-climatic fluctuations, the different model structures induce specific preferential nutrient paths among the soil pools, which in turn affect nutrient distribution and availability to microbes and plants. In particular, if it is assumed that microbes can directly assimilate organic nitrogen, plants tend to be inferior competitors for nutrients even in well-watered conditions, while if a certain amount of organic nitrogen is assumed to be mineralized without being first incorporated into microbial cells, vegetation can be advantaged over a wide range of soil moisture values. We also investigate the intensification of competition for nutrients (e.g., nitrogen) between plant and soil microbial communities under extreme hydrologic conditions, such as droughts and intense storms. Frequent rainfall events may determine ideal soil moisture conditions for plant uptake, enhancing nitrogen leaching while lowering oxygen concentration and inhibiting microbial activity. During droughts, the soil water potential often drops to the point of hampering the plant nutrient uptake while still remaining high enough for microbial decomposition and nitrogen immobilization. The interplay of microbe and vegetation water stress is investigated in depth as it controls the ability of one community (e.g., plants or soil microbes) to establish competitive advantage on the other. The long-term effects of these dynamics of competition and nutrient allocation are explored under steady-state and stochastic soil moisture conditions to analyze the feedbacks between soil organic matter and vegetation dynamics.

Cytoskeleton dynamics: Fluctuations within the network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bursac, Predrag; Fabry, Ben; Trepat, Xavier; Lenormand, Guillaume; Butler, James P.; Wang, Ning; Fredberg, Jeffrey J.; An, Steven S.

2007-01-01

Out-of-equilibrium systems, such as the dynamics of a living cytoskeleton (CSK), are inherently noisy with fluctuations arising from the stochastic nature of the underlying biochemical and molecular events. Recently, such fluctuations within the cell were characterized by observing spontaneous nano-scale motions of an RGD-coated microbead bound to the cell surface [Bursac et al., Nat. Mater. 4 (2005) 557-561]. While these reported anomalous bead motions represent a molecular level reorganization (remodeling) of microstructures in contact with the bead, a precise nature of these cytoskeletal constituents and forces that drive their remodeling dynamics are largely unclear. Here, we focused upon spontaneous motions of an RGD-coated bead and, in particular, assessed to what extent these motions are attributable to (i) bulk cell movement (cell crawling), (ii) dynamics of focal adhesions, (iii) dynamics of lipid membrane, and/or (iv) dynamics of the underlying actin CSK driven by myosin motors

Structure and Function of Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations: Mind the Gaps.

Science.gov (United States)

Battipaglia, Giovanna; Campelo, Filipe; Vieira, Joana; Grabner, Michael; De Micco, Veronica; Nabais, Cristina; Cherubini, Paolo; Carrer, Marco; Bräuning, Achim; Čufar, Katarina; Di Filippo, Alfredo; García-González, Ignacio; Koprowski, Marcin; Klisz, Marcin; Kirdyanov, Alexander V; Zafirov, Nikolay; de Luis, Martin

2016-01-01

Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical, and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic and external factors, and their interaction during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs) can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1) the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2) the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3) the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events.

Structure and Function of Intra–Annual Density Fluctuations: Mind the Gaps

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanna eBattipaglia

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Tree rings are natural archives of climate and environmental information with a yearly resolution. Indeed, wood anatomical, chemical and other properties of tree rings are a synthesis of several intrinsic, environmental factors, and interconnected processes acting during tree growth. In particular, Intra-Annual Density Fluctuations (IADFs can be considered as tree-ring anomalies that can be used to better understand tree growth and to reconstruct past climate conditions with intra-annual resolution. However, the ecophysiological processes behind IADF formation, as well as their functional impact, remain unclear. Are IADFs resulting from a prompt adjustment to fluctuations in environmental conditions to avoid stressful conditions and/or to take advantage from favorable conditions? In this paper we discuss: (1 the influence of climatic factors on the formation of IADFs; (2 the occurrence of IADFs in different species and environments; (3 the potential of new approaches to study IADFs and identify their triggering factors. Our final aim is to underscore the advantages offered by network analyses of data and the importance of high-resolution measurements to gain insight into IADFs formation processes and their relations with climatic conditions, including extreme weather events.

Climate and Global Change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duplessy, J.C.; Pons, A.; Fantechi, R.

1991-01-01

The present volume contains the lessons delivered at the course held in Arles, France, on the subject Climate and Global Change: natural variability of the geosphere and biosphere systems, biogeochemical cycles and their perturbation by human activities, monitoring and forecasting global changes (satellite observations, modelling,...). Short presentations of students' own research activities are also proposed (climatic fluctuation in the Mediterranean area, climate/vegetation relations, etc.)

Distinguishing globally-driven changes from regional- and local-scale impacts: The case for long-term and broad-scale studies of recovery from pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Hawkins, S J; Evans, A J; Mieszkowska, N; Adams, L C; Bray, S; Burrows, M T; Firth, L B; Genner, M J; Leung, K M Y; Moore, P J; Pack, K; Schuster, H; Sims, D W; Whittington, M; Southward, E C

2017-11-30

Marine ecosystems are subject to anthropogenic change at global, regional and local scales. Global drivers interact with regional- and local-scale impacts of both a chronic and acute nature. Natural fluctuations and those driven by climate change need to be understood to diagnose local- and regional-scale impacts, and to inform assessments of recovery. Three case studies are used to illustrate the need for long-term studies: (i) separation of the influence of fishing pressure from climate change on bottom fish in the English Channel; (ii) recovery of rocky shore assemblages from the Torrey Canyon oil spill in the southwest of England; (iii) interaction of climate change and chronic Tributyltin pollution affecting recovery of rocky shore populations following the Torrey Canyon oil spill. We emphasize that "baselines" or "reference states" are better viewed as envelopes that are dependent on the time window of observation. Recommendations are made for adaptive management in a rapidly changing world. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Profiling the regional wind power fluctuation in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Dayang; Liang Jun; Han Xueshan; Zhao Jianguo

2011-01-01

As China starts to build 6 10-GW wind zones in 5 provinces by 2020, accommodating the wind electricity generated from these large wind zones will be a great challenge for the regional grids. Inadequate wind observing data hinders profiling the wind power fluctuations at the regional grid level. This paper proposed a method to assess the seasonal and diurnal wind power patterns based on the wind speed data from the NASA GEOS-5 DAS system, which provides data to the study of climate processes including the long-term estimates of meteorological quantities. The wind power fluctuations for the 6 largest wind zones in China are presented with both the capacity factor and the megawatt wind power output. The measured hourly wind output in a regional grid is compared to the calculating result to test the analyzing model. To investigate the offsetting effect of dispersed wind farms over large regions, the regional correlations of hourly wind power fluctuations are calculated. The result illustrates the different offsetting effects of minute and hourly fluctuations.

Fluctuations in ammonia oxidizing communities across agricultural soils are driven by soil structure and pH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michele C ePereira e Silva

2012-03-01

Full Text Available The milieu in soil in which microorganisms dwell is never constant. Conditions such as temperature, water availability, pH and nutrients frequently change, impacting the overall functioning of the soil system. To understand the effects of such factors on soil functioning, proxies (indicators of soil function are needed that, in a sensitive manner, reveal normal amplitude of variation. Thus, the so-called normal operating range (NOR of soil can be defined. In this study we determined different components of nitrification by analyzing, in eight agricultural soils, how the community structures and sizes of ammonia oxidizing bacteria and archaea (AOB and AOA, respectively, and their activity, fluctuate over spatial and temporal scales. The results indicated that soil pH and soil type are the main factors that influence the size and structure of the AOA and AOB, as well as their function. The nitrification rates varied between 0.11 ± 0.03 µgN.h-1.gdw-1 and 1.68 ± 0.11 µgN.h-1.gdw-1, being higher in soils with higher clay content (1.09 ± 0.12 µgN.h-1.gdw-1 and lower in soils with lower clay percentages (0.27 ± 0.04 µgN.h-1.gdw-1. Nitrifying activity was driven by soil pH, mostly related to its effect on AOA but not on AOB abundance. Regarding the influence of soil parameters, clay content was the main soil factor shaping the structure of both the AOA and AOB communities. Overall, the potential nitrifying activities were higher and more variable over time in the clayey than in the sandy soils. Whereas the structure of AOB fluctuated more (62.7 ± 2.10% the structure of AOA communities showed lower amplitude of variation (53.65 ± 3.37%. Similar trends were observed for the sizes of these communities. The present work represents a first step towards defining a NOR for soil nitrification. Moreover, the clear effect of soil texture established here suggests that the NOR should be defined in a soil-type-specific manner.

Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them.

Science.gov (United States)

Mannino, Marcello A; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; Di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P

2015-11-17

Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell'Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.

Soliton Coupling Driven by Phase Fluctuations in Auto-Parametric Resonance

CERN Document Server

Binder, B

2002-01-01

In this paper the interaction of sine-Gordon solitons and mediating linear waves is modelled by a special case of auto-parametric resonance, the Rayleigh-type self-excited non-linear autonomous system driven by a statistical phase gradient related to the soliton energy. Spherical symmetry can stimulate "whispering gallery modes" (WGM) with integral coupling number M=137.

Influence of Signal and Noise on Statistical Fluctuation of Single-Mode Laser System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Dahai; Cheng Qinghua; Cao Li; Wu Dajin

2006-01-01

On the basis of calculating the steady-state mean normalized intensity fluctuation of a signal-mode laser system driven by both colored pump noise with signal modulation and the quantum noise with cross-correlation between its real and imaginary parts, we analyze the influence of modulation signal, noise, and its correlation form on the statistical fluctuation of the laser system. We have found that when the amplitude of modulation signal weakens and its frequency quickens, the statistical fluctuation will reduce rapidly. The statistical fluctuation of the laser system can be restrained by reducing the intensity of pump noise and quantum noise. Moreover, with prolonging of colored cross-correlation time, the statistical fluctuation of laser system experiences a repeated changing process, that is, from decreasing to augmenting, then to decreasing, and finally to augmenting again. With the decreasing of the value of cross-correlation coefficient, the statistical fluctuation will decrease too. When the cross-correlation form between the real part and imaginary part of quantum noise is zero correlation, the statistical fluctuation of laser system has a minimum. Compared with the influence of intensity of pump noise, the influence of intensity of quantum noise on the statistical fluctuation is smaller.

Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

2016-04-01

Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

Theory of neoclassical resistivity-gradient-driven turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, O.J.; Diamond, P.H.; Hahm, T.S.

1988-12-01

It is shown that rippling instabilities can tap the density gradient expansion free energy source through the density dependence of the neoclassical resistivity. Linear analyses show that the region where neoclassical rippling modes are significantly excited extends from the edge of the plasma to the region where ν/sub *e/ ≤ 1. Since these modes are non-dispersive, diamagnetic effects are negligible in comparison to the nonlinear decorrelation rate at saturation. Thus, the relevant regime is the 'strong turbulence' regime. The turbulent radial diffusivities of the temperature and the density are obtained as eigenvalues of the renormalized eigenmode equations at steady state. The density gradient acts to enhance the level of turbulence, compared to that driven by the temperature gradient alone. The saturated turbulent state is characterized by: current decoupling, the breakdown of Boltzmann relation, a radial mode scale of density fluctuations exceeding that of temperature fluctuations, implying that density diffusivity exceeds temperature diffusivity, and that density fluctuation levels exceed temperature fluctuation levels. Magnetic fluctuation levels are negligible. 29 refs., 1 fig

Elucidation of the fluctuation history of cosmic radiation and global environmental using AMS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horiuchi, Kazuho

2008-01-01

Recently, accuracy of AMS has further been raised in trace amounts of sample. Besides application of 14 C to the age estimation, it has been able to restore in detail the past fluctuation of cosmic radiation strength using the other radioactive isotopes ( 10 Be, 36 Cl etc) in environmental samples and to elucidate the correlation of this with the fluctuation of climate and environment. In this report, the attempts to elucidate the fluctuation history of cosmic radiation and global environment with ice cores using AMS are presented. (M.H.)

Southern westerly winds: a pacemaker of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Patagonia?

Science.gov (United States)

Sagredo, E. A.; Reynhout, S.; Kaplan, M. R.; Patricio, M. I.; Aravena, J. C.; Martini, M. A.; Schaefer, J. M.

2017-12-01

A well-resolved glacial chronology is crucial to compare sequences of glacial/climate events within and between regions, and thus, to unravel mechanisms underlying past climate changes. Important efforts have been made towards understanding the Holocene climate evolution of the Southern Andes; however, the timing, patterns and causes of glacial fluctuations during this period still remain elusive. Recent advances in terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide surface exposure dating, together with the establishment of a Patagonian 10Be production rate, have opened new possibilities for establishing high-resolution glacial chronologies at centennial/decadal scale. Here we present a 10Be surface exposure chronology of fluctuations of a small, climate-sensitive mountain glacier at Mt. Fitz Roy area (49.3°S), spanning from the last glacial termination to the present. Thirty new 10Be ages show glacial advances and moraine building events at 17.1±0.9 ka, 13.5±0.5 ka, 10.2±0.7 ka or 9.9±0.5 ka, 6.9±0.2 ka, 6.1±0.3 ka, 4.5±0.2 ka and 0.5±0.1 ka. Similar to the pattern observed in New Zealand, this sequence features progressively less extensive glacial advances during the late-glacial and early Holocene, followed by advances of roughly similar extent during the mid- to late-Holocene. We suggest that while the magnitude of Holocene glacial fluctuations in Patagonia is modulated by SH summer insolation ("modulator"), the specific timing of these glacial events is influenced by centennial-scale shifts of the Southern Westerly Winds ("pacemaker").

Concentration fluctuations in non-isothermal reaction-diffusion systems. II. The nonlinear case

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bedeaux, D.; Ortiz de Zárate, J.M.; Pagonabarraga, I.; Sengers, J.V.; Kjelstrup, S.

2011-01-01

In this paper, we consider a simple reaction-diffusion system, namely, a binary fluid mixture with an association-dissociation reaction between two species. We study fluctuations at hydrodynamic spatiotemporal scales when this mixture is driven out of equilibrium by the presence of a temperature

Discriminating low frequency components from long range persistent fluctuations in daily atmospheric temperature variability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Cuomo

2009-07-01

Full Text Available This study originated from recent results reported in literature, which support the existence of long-range (power-law persistence in atmospheric temperature fluctuations on monthly and inter-annual scales. We investigated the results of Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA carried out on twenty-two historical daily time series recorded in Europe in order to evaluate the reliability of such findings in depth. More detailed inspections emphasized systematic deviations from power-law and high statistical confidence for functional form misspecification. Rigorous analyses did not support scale-free correlation as an operative concept for Climate modelling, as instead suggested in literature. In order to understand the physical implications of our results better, we designed a bivariate Markov process, parameterised on the basis of the atmospheric observational data by introducing a slow dummy variable. The time series generated by this model, analysed both in time and frequency domains, tallied with the real ones very well. They accounted for both the deceptive scaling found in literature and the correlation details enhanced by our analysis. Our results seem to evidence the presence of slow fluctuations from another climatic sub-system such as ocean, which inflates temperature variance up to several months. They advise more precise re-analyses of temperature time series before suggesting dynamical paradigms useful for Climate modelling and for the assessment of Climate Change.

The Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and simulated climatic variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hunt, B.G. [CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Aspendale, VIC (Australia)

2006-12-15

The CSIRO Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to generate a 10,000-year simulation for 'present' climatic conditions. The model output has been analysed to identify sustained climatic fluctuations, such as those attributed to the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and the Little Ice Age (LIA). Since no external forcing was permitted during the model run all such fluctuations are attributed to naturally occurring climatic variability associated with the nonlinear processes inherent in the climatic system. Comparison of simulated climatic time series for different geographical locations highlighted the lack of synchronicity between these series. The model was found to be able to simulate climatic extremes for selected observations for century timescales, as well as identifying the associated spatial characteristics. Other examples of time series simulated by the model for the USA and eastern Russia had similar characteristics to those attributed to the MWP and the LIA, but smaller amplitudes, and clearly defined spatial patterns. A search for the frequency of occurrence of specified surface temperature anomalies, defined via duration and mean value, revealed that these were primarily confined to polar regions and northern latitudes of Europe, Asia and North America. Over the majority of the oceans and southern hemisphere such climatic fluctuations could not be sustained, for reasons explained in the paper. Similarly, sustained sea-ice anomalies were mainly confined to the northern hemisphere. An examination of mechanisms associated with the sustained climatic fluctuations failed to identify a role for the North Atlantic Oscillation, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. It was therefore concluded that these fluctuations were generated by stochastic processes intrinsic to the nonlinear climatic system. While a number of characteristics of the MWP and the LIA could have been partially caused by natural processes within

Transport and fluctuations in high temperature spheromak plasmas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McLean, H.S.; Wood, R.D.; Cohen, B.I.; Hooper, E.B.; Hill, D.N.; Moller, J.M.; Romero-Talamas, C.; Woodruff, S.

2006-01-01

Higher electron temperature (T e >350 eV) and reduced electron thermal diffusivity (χ e 2 /s) is achieved in the Sustained Spheromak Physics Experiment (SSPX) by increasing the discharge current=I gun and gun bias flux=ψ gun in a prescribed manner. The internal current and q=safety factor profile derived from equilibrium reconstruction as well as the measured magnetic fluctuation amplitude can be controlled by programming the ratio λ gun =μ 0 I gun /ψ gun . Varying λ gun above and below the minimum energy eigenvalue=λ FC of the flux conserver (∇xB-vector=λ FC B-vector) varies the q profile and produces the m/n=poloidal/toroidal magnetic fluctuation mode spectrum expected from mode-rational surfaces with q=m/n. The highest T e is measured when the gun is driven with λ gun slightly less than λ FC , producing low fluctuation amplitudes ( e as T e increases, differing from Bohm or open field line transport models where χ e increases with T e . Detailed resistive magnetohydrodynamic simulations with the NIMROD code support the analysis of energy confinement in terms of the causal link with the q profile, magnetic fluctuations associated with low-order mode-rational surfaces, and the quality of magnetic surfaces

The Sahel Region of West Africa: Examples of Climate Analyses Motivated By Drought Management Needs

Science.gov (United States)

Ndiaye, O.; Ward, M. N.; Siebert, A. B.

2011-12-01

The Sahel is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world. This paper focuses on climate sources of drought, and some new analyses mostly driven by users needing climate information to help in drought management strategies. The Sahel region of West Africa is a transition zone between equatorial climate and vegetation to the south, and desert to the north. The climatology of the region is dominated by dry conditions for most of the year, with a single peak in rainfall during boreal summer. The seasonal rainfall total contains both interannual variability and substantial decadal to multidecadal variability (MDV). This brings climate analysis and drought management challenges across this range of timescales. The decline in rainfall from the wet decades of the 1950s and 60s to the dry decades of the 1970s and 80s has been well documented. In recent years, a moderate recovery has emerged, with seasonal totals in the period 1994-2010 significantly higher than the average rainfall 1970-1993. These MDV rainfall fluctuations have expression in large-scale sea-surface temperature fluctuations in all ocean basins, placing the changes in drought frequency within broader ocean-atmosphere climate fluctuation. We have evaluated the changing character of low seasonal rainfall total event frequencies in the Sahel region 1950-2010, highlighting the role of changes in the mean, variance and distribution shape of seasonal rainfall totals as the climate has shifted through the three observed phases. We also consider the extent to which updating climate normals in real-time can damp the bias in expected event frequency, an important issue for the feasibility of index insurance as a drought management tool in the presence of a changing climate. On the interannual timescale, a key factor long discussed for agriculture is the character of rainfall onset. An extended dry spell often occurs early in the rainy season before the crop is fully established, and this often leads to crop

Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chou, Sin Chan; Marengo, Jose A.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Pesquero, Jose F.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Devon (United Kingdom)

2012-02-15

The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce ''present climate'' - the period 1961-1990 - reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5 latitude x 3.75 longitude were provided at a frequency of 6 h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961-90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Nino and La Nina years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Nino and La Nina events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the

Fordism, Finance-driven Capitalism, and Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Buch-Hansen, Hubert

2014-01-01

Review of Capitalism and Climate Change: Theoretical Discussion, Historical Development and Policy Responses by Max Koch. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012, pp. 240, ISBN: 9780230272514, £55 (hbk.)......Review of Capitalism and Climate Change: Theoretical Discussion, Historical Development and Policy Responses by Max Koch. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012, pp. 240, ISBN: 9780230272514, £55 (hbk.)...

Climate variations and the enhanced greenhouse effect

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Karlen, W. [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

1998-06-01

Changes in the size of glaciers, in the altitude of the alpine tree-limit, and variation in the width of tree-rings during the Holocene clearly indicate that the average Scandinavian summer temperature has fluctuated. During warm periods it has been about 2 deg C warmer than at present; during cold periods it has been almost as cold as it was during the coldest decades of the previous centuries. Superimposed on these long-term variations, which have lasted from 100 to 200 years, are short fluctuations in temperature. The Scandinavian chronology, which is based on glacier and alpine tree-limit fluctuations as well as on dendrochronology, is well correlated with the changes in climate, which studies of ice cores from central Greenland have revealed. It is therefore believed that the Scandinavian climate chronology depicts conditions typical of a large area. The Scandinavian record is compared with data concerning solar irradiation variations estimated as {sup 14}C anomalies obtained from tree-rings. A correlation between major changes in climate and variations in solar irradiation points to a solar forcing of the climate. This means that there is no evidence of a human influence on climate so far Special issue. Research for mountain area development: Europe. 64 refs, 3 figs

The influence of non-equilibrium fluctuations on radiation damage and recovery of metals under irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dubinko, V.I.; Klepikov, V.F.

2007-01-01

In the conventional theory of radiation damage, it is assumed that the main effect of irradiation is due to formation of Frenkel pairs of vacancies and self-interstitial atoms (SIAs) and their clusters. The difference in absorption of vacancies and SIAs by primary or radiation-induced extended defects (EDs) is thought to be the main reason of microstructural evolution under irradiation. On the other hand, the recovery of radiation damage is thought to be driven exclusively by thermal fluctuations resulting in the vacancy evaporation from voids (void annealing) or dislocations (thermal creep) and in the fluctuation-driven overcoming of obstacles by gliding dislocations (plastic strain). However, these recovery mechanisms can be efficient only at sufficiently high temperatures. At lower irradiation temperatures, the main driving force of the recovery processes may be due to nonequilibrium fluctuations of energy states of the atoms surrounding EDs arising as a result of scattering of radiation-induced excitations of atomic and electronic structure at EDs. In the present paper, the mechanisms of nonequilibrium fluctuations that result in such phenomena as the void shrinkage under irradiation at low temperatures (or high dose rates), irradiation creep and irradiation-induced increase of plasticity under sub-threshold irradiation was considered

Electron temperature fluctuation in the HT-7 tokamak plasma observed by electron cyclotron emission imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xiao-Yuan, Xu; Jun, Wang; Yi, Yu; Yi-Zhi, Wen; Chang-Xuan, Yu; Wan-Dong, Liu; Bao-Nian, Wan; Xiang, Gao; Luhmann, N. C.; Domier, C. W.; Wang, Jian; Xia, Z. G.; Shen, Zuowei

2009-01-01

The fluctuation of the electron temperature has been measured by using the electron cyclotron emission imaging in the Hefei Tokamak-7 (HT-7) plasma. The electron temperature fluctuation with a broadband spectrum shows that it propagates in the electron diamagnetic drift direction, and the mean poloidal wave-number k-bar θ is calculated to be about 1.58 cm −1 , or k-bar θρ s thickapprox 0.34. It indicates that the fluctuation should come from the electron drift wave turbulence. The linear global scaling of the electron temperature fluctuation with the gradient of electron temperature is consistent with the mixing length scale qualitatively. Evolution of spectrum of the fluctuation during the sawtooth oscillation phases is investigated, and the fluctuation is found to increase with the gradient of electron temperature increasing during most phases of the sawtooth oscillation. The results indicate that the electron temperature gradient is probably the driver of the fluctuation enhancement. The steady heat flux driven by electron temperature fluctuation is estimated and compared with the results from power balance estimation. (fluids, plasmas and electric discharges)

Magnetic fluctuations in heavy fermion systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broholm, C.L.

1989-06-01

Magnetic order and fluctuations in the heavy Fermion systems UPt 3 , U 2 Zn 17 and URu 2 Si 2 have been studied by neutron scattering. Single crystalline samples and triple-axis neutron-scattering techniques with energy transfers between 0 and 40 meV and energy resolutions between 0.1 meV and 4 meV have been employed. UPt 3 develops an antiferromagnetically ordered moment of (0.02±0.005) μ B below T N = 5 K which doubles the unit cell in the basal plane and coexists with superconductivity below T c = 0.5 K. The magnetic fluctuations are relaxational, and enhanced at the antiferromagnetic zone center in a low-energy regime. The characteristic zone-center relaxation energy is 0.3 meV. The temperature- and field-dependence of the antiferromagnetic order in the superconducting phase suggest a close relation between these two properties in UPt 3 . U 2 Zn 17 has a broad spectrum of magnetic fluctuations, even below T N = 9.7 K, of which the transverse part below 10 meV is strongly enhanced at the antiferromagnetic zone center. The system has an anomalously extended critical region and the antiferromagnetic phase transition seems to be driven by the temperature-dependence of an effective RKKY interaction, as anticipated theoretically. URu 2 Si 2 , a strongly anisotropic heavy Fermion system, has a high-energy regime of antiferromagnetically-correlated overdamped magnetic fluctuations. Below T N = 17.5 K weak antiferromagnetic order, μ = (0.04±0.01)μ B , with finite correlations along the tetragonal c axis, develops along with a low-energy regime of strongly dispersive singlet-singlet excitations. Below T c = 1 K antiferromagnetism coexists with superconductivity. A phenomenological model describing the exchange-enhanced overdamped magnetic fluctuations of heavy Fermion systems is proposed. Our experimental results are compared to the anomalous bulk properties of heavy Fermion systems, and to magnetic fluctuations in other metallic magnets. (orig.)

Stress-induced electric current fluctuations in rocks: a superstatistical model

Science.gov (United States)

Cartwright-Taylor, Alexis; Vallianatos, Filippos; Sammonds, Peter

2017-04-01

equilibrium processes whose variance fluctuates over time. The appearance of q-Gaussian statistics are caused by the fluctuating β parameter, which effectively models the fluctuating energy dissipation rate in the system. This concept is known as superstatistics and is physically relevant for modelling driven non-equilibrium systems where the environmental conditions fluctuate on a large scale. The idea is that the environmental variable, such as temperature or pressure, changes so slowly that a rapidly fluctuating variable within that environment has time to relax back to equilibrium between each change in the environment. The application of superstatistical techniques to our experimental electric current fluctuations show that they can indeed be described, to good approximation, by the superposition of local Gaussian processes with fluctuating variance. We conclude, then, that the measured electric current fluctuates in response to intermittent energy dissipation and is driven to varying temporary local equilibria during deformation by the variations in stress intensity. The advantage of this technique is that, once the model has been established to be a good description of the system in question, the average β parameter (a measure of the average energy dissipation rate) for the system can be obtained simply from the macroscopic q-Gaussian distribution parameters.

Towards uncovering the structure of power fluctuations of wind farms.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Huiwen; Jin, Yaqing; Tobin, Nicolas; Chamorro, Leonardo P

2017-12-01

The structure of the turbulence-driven power fluctuations in a wind farm is fundamentally described from basic concepts. A derived tuning-free model, supported with experiments, reveals the underlying spectral content of the power fluctuations of a wind farm. It contains two power-law trends and oscillations in the relatively low- and high-frequency ranges. The former is mostly due to the turbulent interaction between the flow and the turbine properties, whereas the latter is due to the advection between turbine pairs. The spectral wind-farm scale power fluctuations Φ_{P} exhibit a power-law decay proportional to f^{-5/3-2} in the region corresponding to the turbulence inertial subrange and at relatively large scales, Φ_{P}∼f^{-2}. Due to the advection and turbulent diffusion of large-scale structures, a spectral oscillation exists with the product of a sinusoidal behavior and an exponential decay in the frequency domain.

Climate catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Budyko, Mikhail

1999-05-01

Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

Magnetic fluctuation driven cross-field particle transport in the reversed-field pinch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scheffel, J.; Liu, D.

1997-01-01

Electrostatic and electromagnetic fluctuations generally cause cross-field particle transport in confined plasmas. Thus core localized turbulence must be kept at low levels for sufficient energy confinement in magnetic fusion plasmas. Reversed-field pinch (RFP) equilibria can, theoretically, be completely stable to ideal and resistive (tearing) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes at zero beta. Unstable resistive interchange modes are, however, always present at experimentally relevant values of the poloidal beta β θ . An analytical quasilinear, ambipolar diffusion model is here used to model associated particle transport. The results indicate that core density fluctuations should not exceed a level of about 1% for plasmas of fusion interest. Parameters of experimentally relevant stationary states of the RFP were adjusted to minimize growth rates, using a fully resistive linearized MHD stability code. Density gradient effects are included through employing a parabolic density profile. The scaling of particle diffusion [D(r)∝λ 2 n 0.5 T/aB, where λ is the mode width] is such that the effects of particle transport are milder in present day RFP experiments than in future reactor-relevant plasmas. copyright 1997 American Institute of Physics

Phase Transition in Protocols Minimizing Work Fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Solon, Alexandre P.; Horowitz, Jordan M.

2018-05-01

For two canonical examples of driven mesoscopic systems—a harmonically trapped Brownian particle and a quantum dot—we numerically determine the finite-time protocols that optimize the compromise between the standard deviation and the mean of the dissipated work. In the case of the oscillator, we observe a collection of protocols that smoothly trade off between average work and its fluctuations. However, for the quantum dot, we find that as we shift the weight of our optimization objective from average work to work standard deviation, there is an analog of a first-order phase transition in protocol space: two distinct protocols exchange global optimality with mixed protocols akin to phase coexistence. As a result, the two types of protocols possess qualitatively different properties and remain distinct even in the infinite duration limit: optimal-work-fluctuation protocols never coalesce with the minimal-work protocols, which therefore never become quasistatic.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

Science.gov (United States)

Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David D Gustine

Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

Science.gov (United States)

Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

2014-01-01

Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

10Be in late deglacial climate simulated by ECHAM5-HAM - Part 2: Isolating the solar signal from 10Be deposition

Science.gov (United States)

Heikkilä, U.; Shi, X.; Phipps, S. J.; Smith, A. M.

2014-04-01

This study investigates the effect of deglacial climate on the deposition of the solar proxy 10Be globally, and at two specific locations, the GRIP site at Summit, Central Greenland, and the Law Dome site in coastal Antarctica. The deglacial climate is represented by three 30 year time slice simulations of 10 000 BP (years before present = 1950 CE), 11 000 and 12 000 BP, compared with a preindustrial control simulation. The model used is the ECHAM5-HAM atmospheric aerosol-climate model, driven with sea-surface temperatures and sea ice cover simulated using the CSIRO Mk3L coupled climate system model. The focus is on isolating the 10Be production signal, driven by solar variability, from the weather- or climate-driven noise in the 10Be deposition flux during different stages of climate. The production signal varies at lower frequencies, dominated by the 11 year solar cycle within the 30 year timescale of these experiments. The climatic noise is of higher frequencies than 11 years during the 30 year period studied. We first apply empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis to global 10Be deposition on the annual scale and find that the first principal component, consisting of the spatial pattern of mean 10Be deposition and the temporally varying solar signal, explains 64% of the variability. The following principal components are closely related to those of precipitation. Then, we apply ensemble empirical decomposition (EEMD) analysis to the time series of 10Be deposition at GRIP and at Law Dome, which is an effective method for adaptively decomposing the time series into different frequency components. The low-frequency components and the long-term trend represent production and have reduced noise compared to the entire frequency spectrum of the deposition. The high-frequency components represent climate-driven noise related to the seasonal cycle of e.g. precipitation and are closely connected to high frequencies of precipitation. These results firstly show that

Investigating Non-Equilibrium Fluctuations of Nanocolloids in a Magnetic Field Using Direct Imaging Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Ashley; Oprisan, Ana; Oprisan, Sorinel; Rice-Oprisan College of Charleston Team

Nanoparticles of iron oxide have a high surface area and can be controlled by an external magnetic field. Since they have a fast response to the applied magnetic field, these systems have been used for numerous in vivo applications, such as MRI contrast enhancement, tissue repair, immunoassay, detoxification of biological fluids, hyperthermia, drug delivery, and cell separation. We performed three direct imaging experiments in order to investigate the concentration-driven fluctuations using magnetic nanoparticles in the absence and in the presence of magnetic field. Our direct imaging experimental setup involved a glass cell filled with magnetic nanocolloidal suspension and water with the concentration gradient oriented against the gravitational field and a superluminescent diode (SLD) as the light source. Nonequilibrium concentration-driven fluctuations were recorded using a direct imaging technique. We used a dynamic structure factor algorithm for image processing in order to compute the structure factor and to find the power law exponents. We saw evidence of large concentration fluctuations and permanent magnetism. Further research will use the correlation time to approximate the diffusion coefficient for the free diffusion experiment. Funded by College of Charleston Department of Undergraduate Research and Creative Activities SURF grant.

Generic analysis of kinetically driven inflation

Science.gov (United States)

Saitou, Rio

2018-04-01

We perform a model-independent analysis of kinetically driven inflation (KDI) which (partially) includes generalized G-inflation and ghost inflation. We evaluate the background evolution splitting into the inflationary attractor and the perturbation around it. We also consider the quantum fluctuation of the scalar mode with a usual scaling and derive the spectral index, ignoring the contribution from the second-order products of slow-roll parameters. Using these formalisms, we find that within our generic framework the models of KDI which possess the shift symmetry of scalar field cannot create the quantum fluctuation consistent with the observation. Breaking the shift symmetry, we obtain a few essential conditions for viable models of KDI associated with the graceful exit.

Detecting and Attributing the Effects of Climate Change on the Distributions of Snake Species Over the Past 50 Years.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianguo

2016-01-01

It is unclear whether the distributions of snakes have changed in association with climate change over the past years. We detected the distribution changes of snakes over the past 50 years and determined whether the changes could be attributed to recent climate change in China. Long-term records of the distribution of nine snake species in China, grey relationship analysis, fuzzy sets classification techniques, the consistency index, and attributed methods were used. Over the past 50 years, the distributions of snake species have changed in multiple directions, primarily shifting northwards, and most of the changes were related to the thermal index. Driven by climatic factors over the past 50 years, the distribution boundary and distribution centers of some species changed with the fluctuations. The observed and predicted changes in distribution were highly consistent for some snake species. The changes in the northern limits of distributions of nearly half of the species, as well as the southern and eastern limits, and the distribution centers of some snake species can be attributed to climate change.

Metabolic Rate and Climatic Fluctuations Shape Continental Wide Pattern of Genetic Divergence and Biodiversity in Fishes

Science.gov (United States)

April, Julien; Hanner, Robert H.; Mayden, Richard L.; Bernatchez, Louis

2013-01-01

Taxonomically exhaustive and continent wide patterns of genetic divergence within and between species have rarely been described and the underlying evolutionary causes shaping biodiversity distribution remain contentious. Here, we show that geographic patterns of intraspecific and interspecific genetic divergence among nearly all of the North American freshwater fish species (>750 species) support a dual role involving both the late Pliocene-Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and metabolic rate in determining latitudinal gradients of genetic divergence and very likely influencing speciation rates. Results indicate that the recurrent glacial cycles caused global reduction in intraspecific diversity, interspecific genetic divergence, and species richness at higher latitudes. At the opposite, longer geographic isolation, higher metabolic rate increasing substitution rate and possibly the rapid accumulation of genetic incompatibilities, led to an increasing biodiversity towards lower latitudes. This indicates that both intrinsic and extrinsic factors similarly affect micro and macro evolutionary processes shaping global patterns of biodiversity distribution. These results also indicate that factors favouring allopatric speciation are the main drivers underlying the diversification of North American freshwater fishes. PMID:23922969

Pleistocene climatic changes drive diversification across a tropical savanna.

Science.gov (United States)

Potter, Sally; Xue, Alexander T; Bragg, Jason G; Rosauer, Dan F; Roycroft, Emily J; Moritz, Craig

2018-01-01

Spatial responses of species to past climate change depend on both intrinsic traits (climatic niche breadth, dispersal rates) and the scale of climatic fluctuations across the landscape. New capabilities in generating and analysing population genomic data, along with spatial modelling, have unleashed our capacity to infer how past climate changes have shaped populations, and by extension, complex communities. Combining these approaches, we uncover lineage diversity across four codistributed lizards from the Australian Monsoonal Tropics and explore how varying climatic tolerances interact with regional climate history to generate common vs. disparate responses to late Pleistocene change. We find more divergent spatial structuring and temporal demographic responses in the drier Kimberley region compared to the more mesic and consistently suitable Top End. We hypothesize that, in general, the effects of species' traits on sensitivity to climate fluctuation will be more evident in climatically marginal regions. If true, this points to the need in climatically marginal areas to craft more species-(or trait)-specific strategies for persistence under future climate change. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Science in the Sandbox: Fluctuations, Friction and Instabilities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Behringer, R.B.; Clement, Eric; Geng, Junfei

2001-01-01

The study of granular materials is a novel and rapidly growing field. These materials are interest for a number of reasons, both practical and theoretical. They exhibit a rich of novel dyanamical states, and they exhibit ‘phases’-solid, liquid, and gas-that resemble conventional thermodynamic...... descriptions for the mean and fluctuating behavior of these materials. We explore recent work that focuses on several important issues. These include force propagation and fluctuations in static and driven systems. It is well known that forces propagate through granular structures along networks-force chains......, whose structure is a function of history. It is much less clear how to describe this process, and even what kind of structures evolve in physical experiments. After a brief overview of the field, we consider models of force propagation and recent experiments to test these models. Among the latter...

Impact of long-term climate change on a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boulton, G.S.; Kautsky, U.; Moren, L.; Wallroth, T.

2001-05-01

The radioactivity of spent nuclear fuel will decay over a period of time (100,000 years or longer) in which we expect major environmental change. Climatically driven changes such as glaciation, permafrost and changes in sea level will affect the subsurface environment and must therefore be considered in performance and safety assessments. We regard the state of climate to be determined by the climate system, comprising the atmosphere, the biosphere, the oceans, the ice sheets and the surface of the lithosphere. Climate can change as a consequence of external forcing or as a consequence of the internal dynamics. The changes in the past show a complex cyclical pattern with repetitive periodicities and magnitudes of change. On the relatively long time scale which is of concern in this report climate changes are believed to be triggered by changes in insolation due to cyclical changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. This is referred to as the Milankovitch theory or the astronomical climate theory. A brief review of our knowledge of the climate system, proxy records and observations of past climate change is presented in the report. The most extreme departures from modern environmental conditions in Sweden have occurred during the cold, glacial cycles with ice sheets covering the whole of Sweden. As part of SKB's palaeohydrogeological research programme a time-dependent, thermo-mechanically coupled model of ice sheet behaviour has been developed in order to simulate past fluctuations of the Scandinavian ice sheet and forecast its future. The ice sheet model can calculate the temperature field and isostatic response of the underlying bedrock, subglacial and proglacial permafrost and the subglacial melt rates. By connecting the glaciation model with hydrogeological and rock mechanical models, the response of the subsurface to climate change can be investigated. In this report the climate-driven environmental changes are represented as a series of successive climate-driven

Impact of long-term climate change on a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Boulton, G.S. [Edinburgh Univ. (United Kingdom); Kautsky, U.; Moren, L. [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co., Stockholm (Sweden); Wallroth, T. [Bergab Consulting Geologists (Sweden)

2001-05-01

The radioactivity of spent nuclear fuel will decay over a period of time (100,000 years or longer) in which we expect major environmental change. Climatically driven changes such as glaciation, permafrost and changes in sea level will affect the subsurface environment and must therefore be considered in performance and safety assessments. We regard the state of climate to be determined by the climate system, comprising the atmosphere, the biosphere, the oceans, the ice sheets and the surface of the lithosphere. Climate can change as a consequence of external forcing or as a consequence of the internal dynamics. The changes in the past show a complex cyclical pattern with repetitive periodicities and magnitudes of change. On the relatively long time scale which is of concern in this report climate changes are believed to be triggered by changes in insolation due to cyclical changes in the earth's orbit around the sun. This is referred to as the Milankovitch theory or the astronomical climate theory. A brief review of our knowledge of the climate system, proxy records and observations of past climate change is presented in the report. The most extreme departures from modern environmental conditions in Sweden have occurred during the cold, glacial cycles with ice sheets covering the whole of Sweden. As part of SKB's palaeohydrogeological research programme a time-dependent, thermo-mechanically coupled model of ice sheet behaviour has been developed in order to simulate past fluctuations of the Scandinavian ice sheet and forecast its future. The ice sheet model can calculate the temperature field and isostatic response of the underlying bedrock, subglacial and proglacial permafrost and the subglacial melt rates. By connecting the glaciation model with hydrogeological and rock mechanical models, the response of the subsurface to climate change can be investigated. In this report the climate-driven environmental changes are represented as a series of successive

Elastically driven intermittent microscopic dynamics in soft solids

Science.gov (United States)

Bouzid, Mehdi; Colombo, Jader; Barbosa, Lucas Vieira; Del Gado, Emanuela

2017-06-01

Soft solids with tunable mechanical response are at the core of new material technologies, but a crucial limit for applications is their progressive aging over time, which dramatically affects their functionalities. The generally accepted paradigm is that such aging is gradual and its origin is in slower than exponential microscopic dynamics, akin to the ones in supercooled liquids or glasses. Nevertheless, time- and space-resolved measurements have provided contrasting evidence: dynamics faster than exponential, intermittency and abrupt structural changes. Here we use 3D computer simulations of a microscopic model to reveal that the timescales governing stress relaxation, respectively, through thermal fluctuations and elastic recovery are key for the aging dynamics. When thermal fluctuations are too weak, stress heterogeneities frozen-in upon solidification can still partially relax through elastically driven fluctuations. Such fluctuations are intermittent, because of strong correlations that persist over the timescale of experiments or simulations, leading to faster than exponential dynamics.

Prediction of interannual climate variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, J.

1993-01-01

It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction. (orig./KW)

On the origin of shape fluctuations of the cell nucleus.

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Fang-Yi; Haley, Shannon C; Zidovska, Alexandra

2017-09-26

The nuclear envelope (NE) presents a physical boundary between the cytoplasm and the nucleoplasm, sandwiched in between two highly active systems inside the cell: cytoskeleton and chromatin. NE defines the shape and size of the cell nucleus, which increases during the cell cycle, accommodating for chromosome decondensation followed by genome duplication. In this work, we study nuclear shape fluctuations at short time scales of seconds in human cells. Using spinning disk confocal microscopy, we observe fast fluctuations of the NE, visualized by fluorescently labeled lamin A, and of the chromatin globule surface (CGS) underneath the NE, visualized by fluorescently labeled histone H2B. Our findings reveal that fluctuation amplitudes of both CGS and NE monotonously decrease during the cell cycle, serving as a reliable cell cycle stage indicator. Remarkably, we find that, while CGS and NE typically fluctuate in phase, they do exhibit localized regions of out-of-phase motion, which lead to separation of NE and CGS. To explore the mechanism behind these shape fluctuations, we use biochemical perturbations. We find the shape fluctuations of CGS and NE to be both thermally and actively driven, the latter caused by forces from chromatin and cytoskeleton. Such undulations might affect gene regulation as well as contribute to the anomalously high rates of nuclear transport by, e.g., stirring of molecules next to NE, or increasing flux of molecules through the nuclear pores.

Long term fluctuations of groundwater mine pollution in a sulfide mining district with dry Mediterranean climate: Implications for water resources management and remediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Caraballo, Manuel A; Macías, Francisco; Nieto, José Miguel; Ayora, Carlos

2016-01-01

Water resources management and restoration strategies, and subsequently ecological and human life quality, are highly influenced by the presence of short and long term cycles affecting the intensity of a targeted pollution. On this respect, a typical acid mine drainage (AMD) groundwater from a sulfide mining district with dry Mediterranean climate (Iberian Pyrite Belt, SW Spain) was studied to unravel the effect of long term weather changes in water flow rate and metal pollutants concentration. Three well differentiated polluting stages were observed and the specific geochemical, mineralogical and hydrological processes involved (pyrite and enclosing rocks dissolution, evaporitic salts precipitation-redisolution and pluviometric long term fluctuations) were discussed. Evidencing the importance of including longer background monitoring stage in AMD management and restoration strategies, the present study strongly advise a minimum 5-years period of AMD continuous monitoring previous to the design of any AMD remediation system in regions with dry Mediterranean climate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evanescent-wave proton postaccelerator driven by intense THz pulse

OpenAIRE

L. Pálfalvi; J. A. Fülöp; Gy. Tóth; J. Hebling

2014-01-01

Hadron therapy motivates research dealing with the production of particle beams with ∼100  MeV/nucleon energy and relative energy fluctuation on the order of 1%. Laser-driven accelerators produce ion beams with only tens of MeV/nucleon energy and an extremely broad spectra. Here, a novel method is proposed for postacceleration and monochromatization of particles, leaving the laser-driven accelerator, by using intense THz pulses. It is based on further developing the idea of using the evanesce...

Impacts of climate change on extreme wave climate along the Western Coast of Sri Lanka

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bamunawala, R. M.J.; Hettiarachchi, S. S.L.; Samarawickrama, S. P.; Wikramanayake, P. N.; Ranasinghe, Ranasinghe W M R J B; Baptiste, Alison

2015-01-01

Climate change and climate change driven impacts are most widely argued topics among contemporary researchers and scientists. Broadly there are two schools of thought that present entirely contrasting perceptions about the overall concept of climate change and its impacts. While one of the

Universal Inverse Power-Law Distribution for Fractal Fluctuations in Dynamical Systems: Applications for Predictability of Inter-Annual Variability of Indian and USA Region Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

Selvam, A. M.

2017-01-01

Dynamical systems in nature exhibit self-similar fractal space-time fluctuations on all scales indicating long-range correlations and, therefore, the statistical normal distribution with implicit assumption of independence, fixed mean and standard deviation cannot be used for description and quantification of fractal data sets. The author has developed a general systems theory based on classical statistical physics for fractal fluctuations which predicts the following. (1) The fractal fluctuations signify an underlying eddy continuum, the larger eddies being the integrated mean of enclosed smaller-scale fluctuations. (2) The probability distribution of eddy amplitudes and the variance (square of eddy amplitude) spectrum of fractal fluctuations follow the universal Boltzmann inverse power law expressed as a function of the golden mean. (3) Fractal fluctuations are signatures of quantum-like chaos since the additive amplitudes of eddies when squared represent probability densities analogous to the sub-atomic dynamics of quantum systems such as the photon or electron. (4) The model predicted distribution is very close to statistical normal distribution for moderate events within two standard deviations from the mean but exhibits a fat long tail that are associated with hazardous extreme events. Continuous periodogram power spectral analyses of available GHCN annual total rainfall time series for the period 1900-2008 for Indian and USA stations show that the power spectra and the corresponding probability distributions follow model predicted universal inverse power law form signifying an eddy continuum structure underlying the observed inter-annual variability of rainfall. On a global scale, man-made greenhouse gas related atmospheric warming would result in intensification of natural climate variability, seen immediately in high frequency fluctuations such as QBO and ENSO and even shorter timescales. Model concepts and results of analyses are discussed with reference

Thermally driven convective cells and tokamak edge turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thayer, D.R.; Diamond, P.H.

1987-07-01

A unified theory for the dynamics of thermally driven convective cell turbulence is presented. The cells are excited by the combined effects of radiative cooling and resistivity gradient drive. The model also includes impurity dynamics. Parallel thermal and impurity flows enhanced by turbulent radial duffusion regulate and saturate overlapping cells, even in regimes dominated by thermal instability. Transport coefficients and fluctuation levels characteristic of the saturated turbulence are calculated. It is found that the impurity radiation increases transport coefficients for high density plasmas, while the parallel conduction damping, elevated by radial diffusion, in turn quenches the thermal instability. The enhancement due to radiative cooling provides a resolution to the dilemma of explaining the experimental observation that potential fluctuations exceed density fluctuations in the edge plasma (e PHI/T/sub e/ > n/n 0 )

Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Yu

2018-03-01

Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth's hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 121(11):8352-8370, 2016) by combining the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with an ocean model output. In this study, we reconstructed the observed seasonal geocenter motion with geophysical model predictions of mass variations in the polar ice sheets, continental glaciers, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and atmosphere and dynamic ocean (AO). The reconstructed geocenter motion time series is shown to be in close agreement with the solution based on GRACE data supporting with an ocean bottom pressure model. Over 85% of the observed geocenter motion time series, variance can be explained by the reconstructed solution, which allows a further investigation of the driving mechanisms. We then demonstrated that AO component accounts for 54, 62, and 25% of the observed geocenter motion variances in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. The TWS component alone explains 42, 32, and 39% of the observed variances. The net mass changes over oceans together with self-attraction and loading effects also contribute significantly (about 30%) to the seasonal geocenter motion in the X and Z directions. Other contributing sources, on the other hand, have marginal (less than 10%) impact on the seasonal variations but introduce a linear trend in the time series.

Core fluctuations and current profile dynamics in the MST reversed-field pinch

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brower, D.L.; Ding, W.X.; Lei, J.

2003-01-01

First measurements of the current density profile, magnetic field fluctuations and electrostatic (e.s.) particle flux in the core of a high-temperature reversed-field pinch (RFP) are presented. We report three new results: (1) The current density peaks during the slow ramp phase of the sawtooth cycle and flattens promptly at the crash. Profile flattening can be linked to magnetic relaxation and the dynamo which is predicted to drive anti-parallel current in the core. Measured core magnetic fluctuations are observed to increases four-fold at the crash. Between sawtooth crashes, measurements indicate the particle flux driven by e.s. fluctuations is too small to account for the total radial particle flux. (2) Core magnetic fluctuations are observed to decrease at least twofold in plasmas where energy confinement time improves ten-fold. In this case, the radial particle flux is also reduced, suggesting core e.s. fluctuation-induced transport may play role in confinement. (3) The parallel current density increases in the outer region of the plasma during high confinement, as expected, due to the applied edge parallel electric field. However, the core current density also increases due to dynamo reduction and the emergence of runaway electrons. (author)

Potential effects of climate change on aquatic ecosystems of the Great Plains of North America

Science.gov (United States)

Covich, A.P.; Fritz, S.C.; Lamb, P.J.; Marzolf, R.D.; Matthews, W.J.; Poiani, K.A.; Prepas, E.E.; Richman, M.B.; Winter, T.C.

1997-01-01

The Great Plains landscape is less topographically complex than most other regions within North America, but diverse aquatic ecosystems, such as playas, pothole lakes, ox-bow lakes, springs, groundwater aquifers, intermittent and ephemeral streams, as well as large rivers and wetlands, are highly dynamic and responsive to extreme climatic fluctuations. We review the evidence for climatic change that demonstrates the historical importance of extremes in north-south differences in summer temperatures and east-west differences in aridity across four large subregions. These physical driving forces alter density stratification, deoxygenation, decomposition and salinity. Biotic community composition and associated ecosystem processes of productivity and nutrient cycling respond rapidly to these climatically driven dynamics. Ecosystem processes also respond to cultural effects such as dams and diversions of water for irrigation, waste dilution and urban demands for drinking water and industrial uses. Distinguishing climatic from cultural effects in future models of aquatic ecosystem functioning will require more refinement in both climatic and economic forecasting. There is a need, for example, to predict how long-term climatic forecasts (based on both ENSO and global warming simulations) relate to the permanence and productivity of shallow water ecosystems. Aquatic ecologists, hydrologists, climatologists and geographers have much to discuss regarding the synthesis of available data and the design of future interdisciplinary research. ?? 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fluctuating hydrodynamics and microrheology of a dilute suspension of swimming bacteria.

Science.gov (United States)

Lau, A W C; Lubensky, T C

2009-07-01

A bacterial bath is a model active system consisting of a population of rodlike motile or self-propelled bacteria suspended in a fluid environment. This system can be viewed as an active, nonequilibrium version of a lyotropic liquid crystal or as a generalization of a driven diffusive system. We derive a set of phenomenological equations, which include the effects of internal force generators in the bacteria, describing the hydrodynamic flow, orientational dynamics of the bacteria, and fluctuations induced by both thermal and nonthermal noises. These equations violate the fluctuation dissipation theorem and the Onsager reciprocity relations. We use them to provide a quantitative account of results from recent microrheological experiments on bacterial baths.

Short-term fluctuations in vegetation and phytoplankton during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate: a 640-kyr record from the Messel oil shale (Germany)

Science.gov (United States)

Lenz, Olaf K.; Wilde, Volker; Riegel, Walter

2011-11-01

The Palaeogene was the most recent greenhouse period on Earth. Especially for the Late Palaeocene and Early Eocene, several superimposed short-term hyperthermal events have been described, including extremes such as the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. Major faunal and floral turnovers in the marine and terrestrial realms were recorded in association with these events. High-resolution palynological analysis of the early Middle Eocene maar lake sediments at Messel, near Darmstadt, Germany, provides an insight into the dynamics of a climax vegetation during the Middle Eocene greenhouse climate in a time span without significant climatic excursions. Numerical techniques like detrended correspondence analysis and wavelet analysis have been applied to recognize cyclic fluctuations and long-term trends in the vegetation through a time interval of approximately 640 kyr. Based on the numerical zoning of the pollen diagram, three phases in the development of the vegetation may be distinguished. Throughout these phases, the climax vegetation did not change substantially in qualitative composition, but a trend towards noticeably less humid conditions probably in combination with a drop of the water level in the lake may be recognized. A shift in algal population from the freshwater dinoflagellate cyst Messelodinium thielepfeifferae to a dominance of Botryococcus in the uppermost part of the core is interpreted as a response to changes in acidity and nutrient availability within the lake. Time series analyses of pollen assemblages show that variations in the Milankovitch range of eccentricity, obliquity and precession can be distinguished. In addition, fluctuations in the sub-Milankovitch range are indicated. This demonstrates that floral changes during steady depositional conditions in the Middle Eocene of Messel were controlled by orbital forcing.

Climate reconstructions derived from global glacier length records

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klok, E.J.; Oerlemans, J.

2004-01-01

As glacier length fluctuations provide useful information about past climate, we derived historic fluctuations in the equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) on the basis of 19 glacier length records from different parts of the world. We used a model that takes into account the geometry of the glacier,

Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

2016-03-01

Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary

Effects of pressure fluctuations on the combustion process in turbulent premixed flames

Science.gov (United States)

Beardsell, Guillaume; Lapointe, Simon; Blanquart, Guillaume

2016-11-01

The need for a thorough understanding of turbulence-combustion interactions in compressible flows is driven by recent technological developments in propulsion as well as renewed interest in the development of next generation supersonic and hypersonic vehicles. In such flows, pressure fluctuations displaying a wide range of length and timescales are present. These fluctuations are expected to impact the combustion process to varying degrees, depending amongst other things on the amplitude of the pressure variations and the timescales of the chemical reactions taking place in the flame. In this context, numerical simulations of these flows can provide insight into the impact of pressure fluctuations on the combustion process. In the present work, we analyze data from simulations of statistically-flat premixed n-heptane/air flames at high Karlovitz numbers. The compressible Navier-Stokes equations are solved exactly (DNS) and results obtained with both detailed kinetic modeling and one-step chemistry are considered. The effects of pressure fluctuations on the fuel burning rate are investigated. The findings are compared with results obtained from simulations of one-dimensional premixed flames subjected to various pressure waves.

Dancing with the Tides: Fluctuations of Coastal Phytoplankton Orchestrated by Different Oscillatory Modes of the Tidal Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Blauw, Anouk N.; Benincà, Elisa; Laane, Remi W. P. M.; Greenwood, Naomi; Huisman, Jef

2012-01-01

Population fluctuations are often driven by an interplay between intrinsic population processes and extrinsic environmental forcing. To investigate this interplay, we analyzed fluctuations in coastal phytoplankton concentration in relation to the tidal cycle. Time series of chlorophyll fluorescence, suspended particulate matter (SPM), salinity and temperature were obtained from an automated measuring platform in the southern North Sea, covering 9 years of data at a resolution of 12 to 30 minutes. Wavelet analysis showed that chlorophyll fluctuations were dominated by periodicities of 6 hours 12 min, 12 hours 25 min, 24 hours and 15 days, which correspond to the typical periodicities of tidal current speeds, the semidiurnal tidal cycle, the day-night cycle, and the spring-neap tidal cycle, respectively. During most of the year, chlorophyll and SPM fluctuated in phase with tidal current speed, indicative of alternating periods of sinking and vertical mixing of algal cells and SPM driven by the tidal cycle. Spring blooms slowly built up over several spring-neap tidal cycles, and subsequently expanded in late spring when a strong decline of the SPM concentration during neap tide enabled a temporary “escape” of the chlorophyll concentration from the tidal mixing regime. Our results demonstrate that the tidal cycle is a major determinant of phytoplankton fluctuations at several different time scales. These findings imply that high-resolution monitoring programs are essential to capture the natural variability of phytoplankton in coastal waters. PMID:23166639

Bistability and low-frequency fluctuations in semiconductor lasers with optical feedback: a theoretical analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørk, Jesper; Tromborg, Bjarne; Christiansen, Peter Leth

1988-01-01

Near-threshold operation of a semiconductor laser exposed to moderate optical feedback may lead to low-frequency fluctuations. In the same region, a kink is observed in the light-current characteristic. Here it is demonstrated that these nonlinear phenomena are predicted by a noise driven multimode...

Multi-Resonant-Activation for a System Only Driven by Multi-State Noise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Jinghui

2010-01-01

We consider the escape of the particles over fluctuating potential barrier for a system only driven by a multi-state noise. It is shown that, the noise can make the particles escape over the fluctuating potential barrier in some circumstances; but in other circumstances, it can not. If the noise can make the particle escape over the fluctuating potential barrier, the mean first passage time (MFPT) can display the phenomenon of multi-resonant-activation. For this phenomenon, there are two kinds of resonant activation to appear. One is resonant activation for the MFPTs as the function of the flipping rates of the fluctuating potential barrier; the other is that for the MFPTs as the functions of the transition rates of the multi-state noise. (general)

Long time-scale fluctuations in the evolution of the Earth

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCrea, W.H.

1981-01-01

Current knowledge about certain terrestrial phenomena is reviewed: (a) to discover the extent to which the behaviour of the Earth may be influenced by fluctuations in its astronomical environment and (b) to see if new knowledge of that environment may be gained from its influence on the Earth. Fluctuations in geomagnetism, climate, glaciation, biological extinctions etc. are surveyed with special regard to datings and characteristic time-intervals; correlations between such fluctuations are discussed. Astronomical phenomena, within the Solar System and elsewhere in the Galaxy, that might cause terrestrial effects are reviewed. Fluctuations of glaciation within an ice-epoch may result from changes of insolation accompanying fluctuations of the Earth's motion relative to the Sun. Some evidence suggests that an ice-epoch may be triggered by variations of the astronomical environment encountered in the Sun's motion relative to the Galaxy; but tectonic changes on Earth may be the main trigger. Impacts of planetesimals may be more important than hitherto recognized. Although the intensity of solar 'activity' is variable, terrestrial effects provide no confirmation that the Sun is a 'variable star'. As for the Galaxy, impacting planetesimals may originate in interstellar clouds, and so provide on Earth samples of interstellar matter. Some unsolved problems emphasized by the review are listed. (U.K.)

Long time-scale fluctuations in the evolution of the Earth

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCrea, W H [Sussex Univ., Brighton (UK). Astronomy Centre

1981-02-18

Current knowledge about certain terrestrial phenomena is reviewed: (a) to discover the extent to which the behaviour of the Earth may be influenced by fluctuations in its astronomical environment and (b) to see if new knowledge of that environment may be gained from its influence on the Earth. Fluctuations in geomagnetism, climate, glaciation, biological extinctions etc. are surveyed with special regard to datings and characteristic time-intervals; correlations between such fluctuations are discussed. Astronomical phenomena, within the Solar System and elsewhere in the Galaxy, that might cause terrestrial effects are reviewed. Fluctuations of glaciation within an ice-epoch may result from changes of insolation accompanying fluctuations of the Earth's motion relative to the Sun. Some evidence suggests that an ice-epoch may be triggered by variations of the astronomical environment encountered in the Sun's motion relative to the Galaxy; but tectonic changes on Earth may be the main trigger. Impacts of planetesimals may be more important than hitherto recognized. Although the intensity of solar 'activity' is variable, terrestrial effects provide no confirmation that the Sun is a 'variable star'. As for the Galaxy, impacting planetesimals may originate in interstellar clouds, and so provide on Earth samples of interstellar matter. Some unsolved problems emphasized by the review are listed.

Quenched disorder and thermopower fluctuations in high temperature superconductors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalil, A.E.

1997-01-01

Thermopower behavior in high temperature superconductors YBa 2 Cu 3 O 7-δ single crystals near the transition temperature was examined. An expression for the thermoelectric power containing the divergent term (1-T/T c ) -s , where s is a scaling exponent that does not appear in Maki's calculations, was derived. This divergent term is the result of contributions due to the flow of currents across disordered conduction paths in the sample. These currents are driven by the density gradients of the conductivity fluctuations as a result of the increased disorder due to the existence of amorphous regions in the two-dimensional lattice. The present calculations include the most divergent effects to the thermopower due to the conductivity fluctuations near the transition temperature. The model predictions are in good agreement with recent experimental measurements reported in the literature. (orig.)

Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

2016-09-01

The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cascade-induced fluctuations and the transition from the stable to the critical cavity radius for swelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hayns, M.R.; Mansur, L.K.

1985-01-01

Recently, a cascade diffusion theory was developed to understand cacade-induced fluctuations in point defect flux during irradiation. Application of the theory revealed that such fluctuations give rise to a mechanism of cascade-induced creep that is predicted to be of significant magnitude. Here we extend the investigation to the formation of cavities. Specifically, we explore the possible importance of cascade-induced cavity growth excursions in triggering a transition from the gas-content-dictated stable radius to the critical radius for bias-driven growth. Two methods of analysis are employed. The first uses the variance of fluctuations to assess the average effect of fluctuations. The second is based on the fact that in a large ensemble of cavities, a small fraction will experience larger than average excursions. This prospect is assessed by estimating upper limits to the processes. For the conditions considered, it is concluded that cascade-induced fluctuations are of minor importance in triggering the onset of swelling in a population of stable gas-containing cavities

Global peatland initiation driven by regionally asynchronous warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Paul J; Swindles, Graeme T; Valdes, Paul J; Ivanovic, Ruza F; Gregoire, Lauren J; Smith, Mark W; Tarasov, Lev; Haywood, Alan M; Bacon, Karen L

2018-05-08

Widespread establishment of peatlands since the Last Glacial Maximum represents the activation of a globally important carbon sink, but the drivers of peat initiation are unclear. The role of climate in peat initiation is particularly poorly understood. We used a general circulation model to simulate local changes in climate during the initiation of 1,097 peatlands around the world. We find that peat initiation in deglaciated landscapes in both hemispheres was driven primarily by warming growing seasons, likely through enhanced plant productivity, rather than by any increase in effective precipitation. In Western Siberia, which remained ice-free throughout the last glacial period, the initiation of the world's largest peatland complex was globally unique in that it was triggered by an increase in effective precipitation that inhibited soil respiration and allowed wetland plant communities to establish. Peat initiation in the tropics was only weakly related to climate change, and appears to have been driven primarily by nonclimatic mechanisms such as waterlogging due to tectonic subsidence. Our findings shed light on the genesis and Holocene climate space of one of the world's most carbon-dense ecosystem types, with implications for understanding trajectories of ecological change under changing future climates.

The Green-Kubo formula, autocorrelation function and fluctuation spectrum for finite Markov chains with continuous time

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Yong; Chen Xi; Qian Minping

2006-01-01

A general form of the Green-Kubo formula, which describes the fluctuations pertaining to all the steady states whether equilibrium or non-equilibrium, for a system driven by a finite Markov chain with continuous time (briefly, MC) {ξ t }, is shown. The equivalence of different forms of the Green-Kubo formula is exploited. We also look at the differences in terms of the autocorrelation function and the fluctuation spectrum between the equilibrium state and the non-equilibrium steady state. Also, if the MC is in the non-equilibrium steady state, we can always find a complex function ψ, such that the fluctuation spectrum of {φ(ξ t )} is non-monotonous in [0, + ∞)

The Medieval Climate Anomaly and Byzantium: A review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

Science.gov (United States)

Xoplaki, Elena; Fleitmann, Dominik; Luterbacher, Juerg; Wagner, Sebastian; Haldon, John F.; Zorita, Eduardo; Telelis, Ioannis; Toreti, Andrea; Izdebski, Adam

2016-04-01

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our

Climate Change and Maize Production: Empirical Evidence from ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Michael Madukwe

been argued for as major reasons for global climate change. IPCC (2007) confirmed global fluctuations in ... examine adaptation strategies for climate change; and analyse fishers' livelihoods and adaptive capacity. ... (vii) Average annual income from fishing: Respondents were asked to state their income from fishing. 2.

Electronically driven short-range lattice instability: Possible role in superconductive pairing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Szasz, A.

1991-01-01

A superconducting pairing mechanism is suggested, mediating by collective and coherent cluster fluctuations in the materials. The model, based on a geometrical frustration, proposes a dynamic effect driven by a special short-range electronic instability. Experimental support for this model is discussed

Temporal constraints on future accumulation-area loss of a major Arctic ice cap due to climate change (Vestfonna, Svalbard).

Science.gov (United States)

Möller, Marco; Schneider, Christoph

2015-01-28

Arctic glaciers and ice caps are major contributors to past, present and future sea-level fluctuations. Continued global warming may eventually lead to the equilibrium line altitudes of these ice masses rising above their highest points, triggering unstoppable downwasting. This may feed future sea-level rise considerably. We here present projections for the timing of equilibrium-line loss at the major Arctic ice cap Vestfonna, Svalbard. The projections are based on spatially distributed climatic mass balance modelling driven by the outputs of multiple climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5. Results indicate strongly decreasing climatic mass balances over the 21(st) century for all RCPs considered. Glacier-wide mass-balance rates will drop down to -4 m a(-1) w.e. (water equivalent) at a maximum. The date at which the equilibrium line rises above the summit of Vestfonna (630 m above sea level) is calculated to range between 2040 and 2150, depending on scenario.

Multiscale gyrokinetics for rotating tokamak plasmas: fluctuations, transport and energy flows.

Science.gov (United States)

Abel, I G; Plunk, G G; Wang, E; Barnes, M; Cowley, S C; Dorland, W; Schekochihin, A A

2013-11-01

This paper presents a complete theoretical framework for studying turbulence and transport in rapidly rotating tokamak plasmas. The fundamental scale separations present in plasma turbulence are codified as an asymptotic expansion in the ratio ε = ρi/α of the gyroradius to the equilibrium scale length. Proceeding order by order in this expansion, a set of coupled multiscale equations is developed. They describe an instantaneous equilibrium, the fluctuations driven by gradients in the equilibrium quantities, and the transport-timescale evolution of mean profiles of these quantities driven by the interplay between the equilibrium and the fluctuations. The equilibrium distribution functions are local Maxwellians with each flux surface rotating toroidally as a rigid body. The magnetic equilibrium is obtained from the generalized Grad-Shafranov equation for a rotating plasma, determining the magnetic flux function from the mean pressure and velocity profiles of the plasma. The slow (resistive-timescale) evolution of the magnetic field is given by an evolution equation for the safety factor q. Large-scale deviations of the distribution function from a Maxwellian are given by neoclassical theory. The fluctuations are determined by the 'high-flow' gyrokinetic equation, from which we derive the governing principle for gyrokinetic turbulence in tokamaks: the conservation and local (in space) cascade of the free energy of the fluctuations (i.e. there is no turbulence spreading). Transport equations for the evolution of the mean density, temperature and flow velocity profiles are derived. These transport equations show how the neoclassical and fluctuating corrections to the equilibrium Maxwellian act back upon the mean profiles through fluxes and heating. The energy and entropy conservation laws for the mean profiles are derived from the transport equations. Total energy, thermal, kinetic and magnetic, is conserved and there is no net turbulent heating. Entropy is produced

The intrinsic periodic fluctuation of forest: a theoretical model based on diffusion equation

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, J.; Lin, G., Sr.

2015-12-01

Most forest dynamic models predict the stable state of size structure as well as the total basal area and biomass in mature forest, the variation of forest stands are mainly driven by environmental factors after the equilibrium has been reached. However, although the predicted power-law size-frequency distribution does exist in analysis of many forest inventory data sets, the estimated distribution exponents are always shifting between -2 and -4, and has a positive correlation with the mean value of DBH. This regular pattern can not be explained by the effects of stochastic disturbances on forest stands. Here, we adopted the partial differential equation (PDE) approach to deduce the systematic behavior of an ideal forest, by solving the diffusion equation under the restricted condition of invariable resource occupation, a periodic solution was gotten to meet the variable performance of forest size structure while the former models with stable performance were just a special case of the periodic solution when the fluctuation frequency equals zero. In our results, the number of individuals in each size class was the function of individual growth rate(G), mortality(M), size(D) and time(T), by borrowing the conclusion of allometric theory on these parameters, the results perfectly reflected the observed "exponent-mean DBH" relationship and also gave a logically complete description to the time varying form of forest size-frequency distribution. Our model implies that the total biomass of a forest can never reach a stable equilibrium state even in the absence of disturbances and climate regime shift, we propose the idea of intrinsic fluctuation property of forest and hope to provide a new perspective on forest dynamics and carbon cycle research.

Sedimentology, geochemistry and OSL dating of the alluvial succession in the northern Gujarat alluvial plain (western India) - A record to evaluate the sensitivity of a semiarid fluvial system to the climatic and tectonic forcing since the late Marine Isotopic Stage 3

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharya, Falguni; Shukla, Anil D.; Patel, R. C.; Rastogi, B. K.; Juyal, Navin

2017-11-01

The alluvial successions in the northern Gujarat alluvial plain (western India) have been investigated for reconstructing the climatic fluctuations during the last 40 ka. Alluvial architecture and geochemical proxies indicate prevalence of a strengthened Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) with fluctuations between the late Marine Isotopic Stage 3 (MIS 3; 37 ka) to the early MIS 2 (27 ka). A gradual onset of aridity (declining ISM) after 27 ka with peak aridity at 22 ka is observed. A gradual strengthening of ISM at around 18 and > 12 ka followed by a short reversal in ISM intensity between 12 and 11 ka, is attributed to the Younger-Dryas (YD) cooling event. The aeolian sand sheet dated to 6 and 3.5 ka represents the onset of regional aridity. Following this, a short-lived humid phase was observed after 2 ka, which includes the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). The study suggests that the variability in the ISM to the latitudinal migration of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone was caused by insolation-driven cooling and warming events in the North Atlantic. The incision of the valley fill alluvium occurred in two distinct phases. The older incision phase occurred after 11 ka and before 6 ka, whereas the younger incision phase that led to the development of present day topography is bracketed between 3.5 ka and before 1 ka. The older incision phase is ascribed to the early to mid-Holocene enhanced ISM (climatically driven), whereas the younger incision seems to be modulated by the activation of basement faults (tectonically driven).

Redox Fluctuations Increase the Contribution of Lignin to Soil Respiration

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, S. J.; Silver, W. L.; Timokhin, V.; Hammel, K.

2014-12-01

Lignin mineralization represents a critical flux in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle, yet little is known about mechanisms and environmental factors controlling lignin breakdown in mineral soils. Hypoxia has long been thought to suppress lignin decomposition, yet variation in oxygen (O2) availability in surface soils accompanying moisture fluctuations could potentially stimulate this process by generating reactive oxygen species via coupled biotic and abiotic iron (Fe) redox cycling. Here, we tested the impact of redox fluctuations on lignin breakdown in humid tropical forest soils during ten-week laboratory incubations. We used synthetic lignins labeled with 13C in either of two positions (aromatic methoxyl and propyl Cβ) to provide highly sensitive and specific measures of lignin mineralization not previously employed in soils. Four-day redox fluctuations increased the percent contribution of methoxyl C to soil respiration, and cumulative methoxyl C mineralization was equivalent under static aerobic and fluctuating redox conditions despite lower total C mineralization in the latter treatment. Contributions of the highly stable Cβ to mineralization were also equivalent in static aerobic and fluctuating redox treatments during periods of O2 exposure, and nearly doubled in the fluctuating treatment after normalizing to cumulative O2 exposure. Oxygen fluctuations drove substantial net Fe reduction and oxidation, implying that reactive oxygen species generated during abiotic Fe oxidation likely contributed to the elevated contribution of lignin to C mineralization. Iron redox cycling provides a mechanism for lignin breakdown in soils that experience conditions unfavorable for canonical lignin-degrading organisms, and provides a potential mechanism for lignin depletion in soil organic matter during late-stage decomposition. Thus, close couplings between soil moisture, redox fluctuations, and lignin breakdown provide potential a link between climate variability and

Cosmic rays, clouds and climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensmark, Henrik [Danish Space Research Institute, Juliane Maries Vej 30, DK-2100 Copenhagen (Denmark)

2007-07-01

Changes in the intensity of galactic cosmic rays seems alter the Earth's cloudiness. A recent experiment has shown how electrons liberated by cosmic rays assist in making aerosols, the building blocks of cloud condensation nuclei, while anomalous climatic trends in Antarctica confirm the role of clouds in helping to drive climate change. Variations in the cosmic-ray influx due to solar magnetic activity account well for climatic fluctuations on decadal, centennial and millennial timescales. Over longer intervals, the changing galactic environment of the Solar System has had dramatic consequences, including Snowball Earth episodes.

Climatic fluctuation of temperature and air circulation in the Mediterranean

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bartzokas, A.; Metaxas, D.A.

1991-01-01

The study of the long term fluctuation of sea surface temperature and 1000/500 mb thickness data in the Mediterranean sea during the last 45 years has shown that the global warming does not appear everywhere. Warming is not apparent in the East Mediterranean but only during the last years, the time series of surface pressure and relative geostrophic vorticity were examined for possible explanation: a strengthening of the northerly wind force have occurred. Thus it can be assumed that local atmospheric circulation changes may support or oppose the global warming in some places

Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

Science.gov (United States)

Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

2017-01-01

Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

2015-08-01

Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

Nonlinear quenching of current fluctuations in a self-exciting homopolar dynamo

Science.gov (United States)

Hide, R.

In the interpretation of geomagnetic polarity reversals with their highly variable frequency over geological time it is necessary, as with other irregularly fluctuating geophysical phenomena, to consider the relative importance of forced contributions associated with changing boundary conditions and of free contributions characteristic of the behaviour of nonlinear systems operating under fixed boundary conditions. New evidence -albeit indirect- in favour of the likely predominance of forced contributions is provided by the discovery reported here of the possibility of complete quenching by nonlineax effects of current fluctuations in a self-exciting homopolar dynamo with its single Faraday disk driven into rotation with angular speed y(τ) (where τ denotes time) by a steady applied couple. The armature of an electric motor connected in series with the coil of the dynamo is driven into rotation' with angular speed z(τ) by a torque xf (x) due to Lorentz forces associated with the electric current x(τ) in the system (just as certain parts of the spectrum of eddies within the liquid outer core are generated largely by Lorentz forces associated with currents generated by the self-exciting magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) geodynamo). The discovery is based on bifurcation analysis supported by computational studies of the following (mathematically novel) autonomous set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations: dx/dt = x(y - 1) - βzf(x), dy/dt = α(1 - x²) - κy, dz/dt = xf (x) -λz, where f (x) = 1 - ɛ + ɛσx, in cases when the dimensionless parameters (α, β, κ, λ, σ) are all positive and 0 ≤ ɛ ≤ 1. Within those regions of (α, β, κ, λ, σ) parameter space where the applied couple, as measured by α, is strong enough for persistent dynamo action (i.e. x ≠ 0) to occur at all, there are in general extensive regions where x(τ) exhibits large amplitude regular or irregular (chaotic) fluctuations. But these fluctuating régimes shrink in size as increases

Implication of climate change for the persistence of raptors in arid savanna

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wichmann, M.C.; Wissel, C. [UFZ-Center for Environmental Research, Dept. of Ecological Modelling, Leipzig (Germany); Jeltsch, F. [Univ. of Potsdam, Inst. for Biochemistry and Biology, Potsdam (Germany); Dean, W.R.J. [Univ. of Cape Town, Percy FitzPatrick Inst. of African Ornithology, Rondebosch (South Africa); Moloney, K.A. [Iowa State Univ., Dept. of Botany, Ames, IA (United States)

2003-07-01

Arid savannas are regarded as one of the ecosystems most likely to be affected by climate change. In these dry conditions, even top predators like raptors are affected by water availability and precipitation. However, few research initiatives have a adressed the question of how climate change will affect population dynamics and extinction risk of particular species in and ecosystems. Here, we use an individual-oriented modeling approach to conduct experiments on the population dynamics of long lived raptors. We investigate the potential impact of precipitation variation caused by climate change on raptors in and savanna using the tawny eagle (Aquila rapax) in the southern Kalahari as a case study. We simulated various modifications of precipitation scenarios predicted for climate change, such as lowered annual precipitation mean, increased inter-annual variation and increased auto-correlation in precipitation. We found a high impact of these modifications on extinction risk of tawny eagles, with reduced population persistence in most cases. Decreased mean annual precipitation and increased inter-annual variation both caused dramatic decreases in population persistence. Increased autocorrelation in precipitation led only to slightly accelerated extinction of simulated populations. Finally. for various patterns of periodically fluctuating precipitation, we found both increased and decreased population persistence. In summary, our results suggest that the impacts on raptor population dynamics and survival caused by climate change in and savannas will be great. We emphasize that even if under climate change the mean annual precipitation remains constant but the inter-annual variation increases the persistence of raptor populations in and savannas will decrease considerably. This suggests a new dimension, of climate change driven impacts on population persistence and consequently on biodiversity. However, more investigations on particular species and/or species groups

Projections of climate-driven changes in tuna vertical habitat based on species-specific differences in blood oxygen affinity.

Science.gov (United States)

Mislan, K A S; Deutsch, Curtis A; Brill, Richard W; Dunne, John P; Sarmiento, Jorge L

2017-10-01

Oxygen concentrations are hypothesized to decrease in many areas of the ocean as a result of anthropogenically driven climate change, resulting in habitat compression for pelagic animals. The oxygen partial pressure, pO 2 , at which blood is 50% saturated (P 50 ) is a measure of blood oxygen affinity and a gauge of the tolerance of animals for low ambient oxygen. Tuna species display a wide range of blood oxygen affinities (i.e., P 50 values) and therefore may be differentially impacted by habitat compression as they make extensive vertical movements to forage on subdaily time scales. To project the effects of end-of-the-century climate change on tuna habitat, we calculate tuna P 50 depths (i.e., the vertical position in the water column at which ambient pO 2 is equal to species-specific blood P 50 values) from 21st century Earth System Model (ESM) projections included in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, we project P 50 depths to shoal, indicating likely habitat compression for tuna species due to climate change. Tunas that will be most impacted by shoaling are Pacific and southern bluefin tunas-habitat compression is projected for the entire geographic range of Pacific bluefin tuna and for the spawning region of southern bluefin tuna. Vertical shifts in P 50 depths will potentially influence resource partitioning among Pacific bluefin, bigeye, yellowfin, and skipjack tunas in the northern subtropical and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. By establishing linkages between tuna physiology and environmental conditions, we provide a mechanistic basis to project the effects of anthropogenic climate change on tuna habitats. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Logarithmic Superdiffusion in Two Dimensional Driven Lattice Gases

Science.gov (United States)

Krug, J.; Neiss, R. A.; Schadschneider, A.; Schmidt, J.

2018-03-01

The spreading of density fluctuations in two-dimensional driven diffusive systems is marginally anomalous. Mode coupling theory predicts that the diffusivity in the direction of the drive diverges with time as (ln t)^{2/3} with a prefactor depending on the macroscopic current-density relation and the diffusion tensor of the fluctuating hydrodynamic field equation. Here we present the first numerical verification of this behavior for a particular version of the two-dimensional asymmetric exclusion process. Particles jump strictly asymmetrically along one of the lattice directions and symmetrically along the other, and an anisotropy parameter p governs the ratio between the two rates. Using a novel massively parallel coupling algorithm that strongly reduces the fluctuations in the numerical estimate of the two-point correlation function, we are able to accurately determine the exponent of the logarithmic correction. In addition, the variation of the prefactor with p provides a stringent test of mode coupling theory.

Fluctuation-dissipation relation and stationary distribution of an exactly solvable many-particle model for active biomatter far from equilibrium.

Science.gov (United States)

Netz, Roland R

2018-05-14

An exactly solvable, Hamiltonian-based model of many massive particles that are coupled by harmonic potentials and driven by stochastic non-equilibrium forces is introduced. The stationary distribution and the fluctuation-dissipation relation are derived in closed form for the general non-equilibrium case. Deviations from equilibrium are on one hand characterized by the difference of the obtained stationary distribution from the Boltzmann distribution; this is possible because the model derives from a particle Hamiltonian. On the other hand, the difference between the obtained non-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation and the standard equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem allows us to quantify non-equilibrium in an alternative fashion. Both indicators of non-equilibrium behavior, i.e., deviations from the Boltzmann distribution and deviations from the equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem, can be expressed in terms of a single non-equilibrium parameter α that involves the ratio of friction coefficients and random force strengths. The concept of a non-equilibrium effective temperature, which can be defined by the relation between fluctuations and the dissipation, is by comparison with the exactly derived stationary distribution shown not to hold, even if the effective temperature is made frequency dependent. The analysis is not confined to close-to-equilibrium situations but rather is exact and thus holds for arbitrarily large deviations from equilibrium. Also, the suggested harmonic model can be obtained from non-linear mechanical network systems by an expansion in terms of suitably chosen deviatory coordinates; the obtained results should thus be quite general. This is demonstrated by comparison of the derived non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation relation with experimental data on actin networks that are driven out of equilibrium by energy-consuming protein motors. The comparison is excellent and allows us to extract the non

Fluctuation-dissipation relation and stationary distribution of an exactly solvable many-particle model for active biomatter far from equilibrium

Science.gov (United States)

Netz, Roland R.

2018-05-01

An exactly solvable, Hamiltonian-based model of many massive particles that are coupled by harmonic potentials and driven by stochastic non-equilibrium forces is introduced. The stationary distribution and the fluctuation-dissipation relation are derived in closed form for the general non-equilibrium case. Deviations from equilibrium are on one hand characterized by the difference of the obtained stationary distribution from the Boltzmann distribution; this is possible because the model derives from a particle Hamiltonian. On the other hand, the difference between the obtained non-equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation relation and the standard equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem allows us to quantify non-equilibrium in an alternative fashion. Both indicators of non-equilibrium behavior, i.e., deviations from the Boltzmann distribution and deviations from the equilibrium fluctuation-dissipation theorem, can be expressed in terms of a single non-equilibrium parameter α that involves the ratio of friction coefficients and random force strengths. The concept of a non-equilibrium effective temperature, which can be defined by the relation between fluctuations and the dissipation, is by comparison with the exactly derived stationary distribution shown not to hold, even if the effective temperature is made frequency dependent. The analysis is not confined to close-to-equilibrium situations but rather is exact and thus holds for arbitrarily large deviations from equilibrium. Also, the suggested harmonic model can be obtained from non-linear mechanical network systems by an expansion in terms of suitably chosen deviatory coordinates; the obtained results should thus be quite general. This is demonstrated by comparison of the derived non-equilibrium fluctuation dissipation relation with experimental data on actin networks that are driven out of equilibrium by energy-consuming protein motors. The comparison is excellent and allows us to extract the non

The Green-Kubo formula, autocorrelation function and fluctuation spectrum for finite Markov chains with continuous time

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen Yong; Chen Xi; Qian Minping [School of Mathematical Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 100871 (China)

2006-03-17

A general form of the Green-Kubo formula, which describes the fluctuations pertaining to all the steady states whether equilibrium or non-equilibrium, for a system driven by a finite Markov chain with continuous time (briefly, MC) {l_brace}{xi}{sub t}{r_brace}, is shown. The equivalence of different forms of the Green-Kubo formula is exploited. We also look at the differences in terms of the autocorrelation function and the fluctuation spectrum between the equilibrium state and the non-equilibrium steady state. Also, if the MC is in the non-equilibrium steady state, we can always find a complex function {psi}, such that the fluctuation spectrum of {l_brace}{phi}({xi}{sub t}){r_brace} is non-monotonous in [0, + {infinity})

Measurement of magnetic fluctuations at small spatial scales in the Tokapole II tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haines, E.J.

1991-08-01

This thesis is a presentation of the measurements of short-wavelength, high-frequency radial magnetic fluctuations performed on the Tokapole 2 tokamak at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Theories of electron temperature gradient (η e ) driven turbulence predict the existence of increased magnetic fluctuation power at small spatial scales near the collisionless skin depth c/ω pe and over a wide range of frequencies near and below the electron diamagnetic drift frequency ω* ne . Small magnetic probes of sizes down to 1 m m have been constructed and used to resolve short poloidal and radial wavelength magnetic fluctuations. These probes have been used with larger probes to make comparisons of fluctuation spectra measured in various ranges of wavelength and over the range of frequencies from 10 kHz to 6 MHz in Tokapole 2 plasmas. A calculation of the short-wavelength, high-frequency response of an electrostatically shielded model B r probe has been performed to guide the interpretation of the power comparison measurements. Comparisons of magnetic fluctuation spectra at various positions within the plasma, and for discharges with edge safety factor 1, 2, and 3 are presented. The linear and nonlinear theories and numerical simulations of η e turbulence are reviewed and compared, where possible with the experimental parameters and results

Introducing an integrated climate change perspective in POPs modelling, monitoring and regulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamon, L.; Dalla Valle, M.; Critto, A.; Marcomini, A.

2009-01-01

This paper presents a review on the implications of climate change on the monitoring, modelling and regulation of persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Current research gaps are also identified and discussed. Long-term data sets are essential to identify relationships between climate fluctuations and changes in chemical species distribution. Reconstructing the influence of climatic changes on POPs environmental behaviour is very challenging in some local studies, and some insights can be obtained by the few available dated sediment cores or by studying POPs response to inter-annual climate fluctuations. Knowledge gaps and future projections can be studied by developing and applying various modelling tools, identifying compounds susceptibility to climate change, local and global effects, orienting international policies. Long-term monitoring strategies and modelling exercises taking into account climate change should be considered when devising new regulatory plans in chemicals management. - Climate change implications on POPs are addressed here with special attention to monitoring, modelling and regulation issues.

Predictability and environmental drivers of chlorophyll fluctuations vary across different time scales and regions of the North Sea

Science.gov (United States)

Blauw, Anouk N.; Benincà, Elisa; Laane, Remi W. P. M.; Greenwood, Naomi; Huisman, Jef

2018-02-01

Phytoplankton concentrations display strong temporal variability at different time scales. Recent advances in automated moorings enable detailed investigation of this variability. In this study, we analyzed phytoplankton fluctuations at four automated mooring stations in the North Sea, which measured phytoplankton abundance (chlorophyll) and several environmental variables at a temporal resolution of 12-30 min for two to nine years. The stations differed in tidal range, water depth and freshwater influence. This allowed comparison of the predictability and environmental drivers of phytoplankton variability across different time scales and geographical regions. We analyzed the time series using wavelet analysis, cross correlations and generalized additive models to quantify the response of chlorophyll fluorescence to various environmental variables (tidal and meteorological variables, salinity, suspended particulate matter, nitrate and sea surface temperature). Hour-to-hour and day-to-day fluctuations in chlorophyll fluorescence were substantial, and mainly driven by sinking and vertical mixing of phytoplankton cells, horizontal transport of different water masses, and non-photochemical quenching of the fluorescence signal. At the macro-tidal stations, these short-term phytoplankton fluctuations were strongly driven by the tides. Along the Dutch coast, variation in salinity associated with the freshwater influence of the river Rhine played an important role, while in the central North Sea variation in weather conditions was a major determinant of phytoplankton variability. At time scales of weeks to months, solar irradiance, nutrient conditions and thermal stratification were the dominant drivers of changes in chlorophyll concentrations. These results show that the dominant drivers of phytoplankton fluctuations differ across marine environments and time scales. Moreover, our findings show that phytoplankton variability on hourly to daily time scales should not be

Empowering America's Communities to Prepare for the Effects of Climate Change: Developing Actionable Climate Science Under the President's Climate Action Plan

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, P. B.; Colohan, P.; Driggers, R.; Herring, D.; Laurier, F.; Petes, L.; Ruffo, S.; Tilmes, C.; Venkataraman, B.; Weaver, C. P.

2014-12-01

Effective adaptation to impacts of climate change requires best-available information. To be most useful, this information should be easily found, well-documented, and translated into tools that decision-makers use and trust. To meet these needs, the President's Climate Action Plan includes efforts to develop "actionable climate science". The Climate Data Initiative (CDI) leverages the Federal Government's extensive, open data resources to stimulate innovation and private-sector entrepreneurship in support of actions to prepare for climate change. The Initiative forges commitments and partnerships from the private, NGO, academic, and public sectors to create data-driven tools. Open data from Federal agencies to support this innovation is available on Climate.Data.gov, initially focusing on coastal flooding but soon to expand to topics including food, energy, water, energy, transportation, and health. The Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) will facilitate access to data-driven resilience tools, services, and best practices, including those accessible through the CDI. The CRT will also include access to training and tutorials, case studies, engagement forums, and other information sources. The Climate Action Plan also calls for a public-private partnership on extreme weather risk, with the goal of generating improved assessments of risk from different types of extreme weather events, using methods and data that are transparent and accessible. Finally, the U.S. Global Change Research Program and associated agencies work to advance the science necessary to inform decisions and sustain assessments. Collectively, these efforts represent increased emphasis across the Federal Government on the importance of information to support climate resilience.

Impact of climatic change on ocean carbon fluxes. Role of the decadal variability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seferian, Roland

2013-01-01

Since the industrial revolution, oceans have absorbed roughly one quarter of the anthropogenic emissions of CO 2 , slowing down climate change. The evolution of the ocean carbon sink, paralleled to the anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, is ruled by the CO 2 as well as climate. Influence of atmospheric CO 2 in the recent evolution of the ocean carbon sink is well understood whilst this is not the case for the climate's one. Indeed, some authors claim that the recent variations of the ocean CO 2 sink can be attributed to climate change, whereas some others suggest that these latter are controlled by a decadal variability, which is poorly understood. In this thesis, we address question relative to the role of the decadal variability of the ocean carbon fluxes through the mean of numerical modeling. On one hand, we have demonstrated that ocean carbon fluxes exhibit decadal fluctuations within the high latitudes oceans. These fluctuations displays modes of 10 to 50-year long which account for 20 to 40% of the year-to-year variability. Thanks to Detection and Attribution methods applied to RECCAP project's reconstructions (1960-2005), we have then assessed whether the occurrence of fluctuations at decadal time scale could hamper the detection of the climate contribution to the recent evolution of ocean carbon fluxes. We have shown that the climate contribution is indeed not detected in the high latitude oceans due to the presence of decadal mode of variability. In the low latitude oceans instead, the weaker fluctuations of ocean carbon fluxes at decadal time scale favor the detection of climate influence in the recent variations of the CO 2 fluxes. (author) [fr

Climate change and wildfires

Science.gov (United States)

William J. De Groot; Michael D. Flannigan; Brian J. Stocks

2013-01-01

Wildland fire regimes are primarily driven by climate/weather, fuels and people. All of these factors are dynamic and their variable interactions create a mosaic of fire regimes around the world. Climate change will have a substantial impact on future fire regimes in many global regions. Current research suggests a general increase in area burned and fire occurrence...

Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

2014-05-01

The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect

Late Quaternary climatic changes in the Ross Sea area, Antarctica

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brambati, A.; Melis, R.; Quaia, T.; Salvi, G.

2002-01-01

Ten cores from the Ross Sea continental margin were investigated to detect Late Quaternary climatic changes. Two main climatic cycles over the last 300,000 yr (isotope stages 1-8) were recognised in cores from the continental slope, whereas minor fluctuations over the last 30,000 yr were found in cores from the continental shelf. The occurrence of calcareous taxa within the Last Glacial interval and their subsequent disappearance reveal a general raising of the CCD during the last climatic cycle. In addition, periodical trends of c. 400, c. 700, and c. 1400 yr determined on calcareous foraminifers from sediments of the Joides Basin, indicate fluctuations of the Ross Ice Shelf between 15 and 30 ka BP. (author). 24 refs., 5 figs

Gait-Cycle-Driven Transmission Power Control Scheme for a Wireless Body Area Network.

Science.gov (United States)

Zang, Weilin; Li, Ye

2018-05-01

In a wireless body area network (WBAN), walking movements can result in rapid channel fluctuations, which severely degrade the performance of transmission power control (TPC) schemes. On the other hand, these channel fluctuations are often periodic and are time-synchronized with the user's gait cycle, since they are all driven from the walking movements. In this paper, we propose a novel gait-cycle-driven transmission power control (G-TPC) for a WBAN. The proposed G-TPC scheme reinforces the existing TPC scheme by exploiting the periodic channel fluctuation in the walking scenario. In the proposed scheme, the user's gait cycle information acquired by an accelerometer is used as beacons for arranging the transmissions at the time points with the ideal channel state. The specific transmission power is then determined by using received signal strength indication (RSSI). An experiment was conducted to evaluate the energy efficiency and reliability of the proposed G-TPC based on a CC2420 platform. The results reveal that compared to the original RSSI/link-quality-indication-based TPC, G-TPC reduces energy consumption by 25% on the sensor node and reduce the packet loss rate by 65%.

Assessment of Climate Change Adaptive Strategies in Small ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Animals are intrinsically dependent on the environment, and any fluctuations in weather and climate can affect them through water and land changes, such as desertification, feed and water availability. Climate change will not only impact the health and welfare of animals, but also the more than a billion people who depend ...

Flux-flow noise driven by quantum fluctuations in a thick amorphous film

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Okuma, S. [Research Center for Low Temperature Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ohokayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan)]. E-mail: sokuma@o.cc.titech.ac.jp; Kainuma, K. [Research Center for Low Temperature Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ohokayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan); Kishimoto, T. [Research Center for Low Temperature Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ohokayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan); Kohara, M. [Research Center for Low Temperature Physics, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 2-12-1 Ohokayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8551 (Japan)

2006-10-01

We measure the voltage-noise spectrum S {sub V}(f) (where f is a frequency) as well as the time (t)-dependent component {delta}V(t) of the flux-flow voltage in the low temperature liquid phase of a thick amorphous Mo {sub x}Si{sub 1-x} film. In the quantum-liquid phase both the amplitude vertical bar {delta}V vertical bar of voltage fluctuations and the asymmetry of the probability distribution of {delta}V(t) show an anomalous increase; the spectral shape of S {sub V}(f) is of a Lorentzian type, suggesting the shot-noise-like vortex motion with a large 'vortex-bundle size' and short characteristic time.

Vegetation-climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Minchao; Schurgers, Guy; Rummukainen, Markku; Smith, Benjamin; Samuelsson, Patrick; Jansson, Christer; Siltberg, Joe; May, Wilhelm

2016-07-01

Africa has been undergoing significant changes in climate and vegetation in recent decades, and continued changes may be expected over this century. Vegetation cover and composition impose important influences on the regional climate in Africa. Climate-driven changes in vegetation structure and the distribution of forests versus savannah and grassland may feed back to climate via shifts in the surface energy balance, hydrological cycle and resultant effects on surface pressure and larger-scale atmospheric circulation. We used a regional Earth system model incorporating interactive vegetation-atmosphere coupling to investigate the potential role of vegetation-mediated biophysical feedbacks on climate dynamics in Africa in an RCP8.5-based future climate scenario. The model was applied at high resolution (0.44 × 0.44°) for the CORDEX-Africa domain with boundary conditions from the CanESM2 general circulation model. We found that increased tree cover and leaf-area index (LAI) associated with a CO2 and climate-driven increase in net primary productivity, particularly over subtropical savannah areas, not only imposed important local effect on the regional climate by altering surface energy fluxes but also resulted in remote effects over central Africa by modulating the land-ocean temperature contrast, Atlantic Walker circulation and moisture inflow feeding the central African tropical rainforest region with precipitation. The vegetation-mediated feedbacks were in general negative with respect to temperature, dampening the warming trend simulated in the absence of feedbacks, and positive with respect to precipitation, enhancing rainfall reduction over the rainforest areas. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for vegetation-atmosphere interactions in climate projections for tropical and subtropical Africa.

Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Business Cycle: Evidence from Japan

OpenAIRE

Bankim Chadha; Eswar Prasad

1997-01-01

This paper analyzes the relationship between the real exchange rate and the business cycle in Japan during the floating rate period. A structural vector autoregression is used to identify different types of macroeconomic shocks that determine fluctuations in aggregate output and the real exchange rate. Relative nominal and real demand shocks are found to be the main determinants of variation in real exchange rate changes, whereas relative output growth is driven primarily by supply shocks. Hi...

Possible Significance of Early Paleozoic Fluctuations in Bottom Current Intensity, Northwest Iapetus Ocean

Science.gov (United States)

Lash, Gary G.

1986-06-01

Sedimentologic and geochemical characteristics of red and green deep water mudstone exposed in the central Appalachian orogen define climatically-induced fluctuations in bottom current intensity along the northwest flank of the Iapetus Ocean in Early and Middle Ordovician time. Red mudstone accumulated under the influence of moderate to vigorous bottom current velocities in oxygenated bottom water produced during climatically cool periods. Interbedded green mudstone accumulated at greater sedimentation rates, probably from turbidity currents, under the influence of reduced thermohaline circulation during global warming periods. The close association of green mudstone and carbonate turbidites of Early Ordovician (late Tremadocian to early Arenigian) age suggests that a major warming phase occurred at this time. Increasing temperatures reduced bottom current velocities and resulted in increased production of carbonate sediment and organic carbon on the carbonate platform of eastern North America. Much of the excess carbonate sediment and organic carbon was transported into deep water by turbidity currents. Although conclusive evidence is lacking, this eustatic event may reflect a climatic warming phase that followed the postulated glacio-eustatic Black Mountain event. Subsequent Middle Ordovician fluctuations in bottom current intensity recorded by thin red-green mudstone couplets probably reflect periodic growth and shrinkage of an ice cap rather than major glacial episodes.

Dynamic Structure Factor and Transport Coefficients of a Homogeneously Driven Granular Fluid in Steady State

Science.gov (United States)

Vollmayr-Lee, Katharina; Zippelius, Annette; Aspelmeier, Timo

2011-03-01

We study the dynamic structure factor of a granular fluid of hard spheres, driven into a stationary nonequilibrium state by balancing the energy loss due to inelastic collisions with the energy input due to driving. The driving is chosen to conserve momentum, so that fluctuating hydrodynamics predicts the existence of sound modes. We present results of computer simulations which are based on an event driven algorithm. The dynamic structure factor F (q , ω) is determined for volume fractions 0.05, 0.1 and 0.2 and coefficients of normal restitution 0.8 and 0.9. We observe sound waves, and compare our results for F (q , ω) with the predictions of generalized fluctuating hydrodynamics which takes into account that temperature fluctuations decay either diffusively or with a finite relaxation rate, depending on wave number and inelasticity. We determine the speed of sound and the transport coefficients and compare them to the results of kinetic theory. K.V.L. thanks the Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Goettingen, for financial support and hospitality.

Mid- to late Holocene climate-driven regime shifts inferred from diatom, ostracod and stable isotope records from Lake Son Kol (Central Tian Shan, Kyrgyzstan)

Science.gov (United States)

Schwarz, Anja; Turner, Falko; Lauterbach, Stefan; Plessen, Birgit; Krahn, Kim J.; Glodniok, Sven; Mischke, Steffen; Stebich, Martina; Witt, Roman; Mingram, Jens; Schwalb, Antje

2017-12-01

Arid Central Asia represents a key region for understanding climate variability and interactions in the Northern Hemisphere. Patterns and mechanisms of Holocene climate change in arid Central Asia are, however, only partially understood. Multi-proxy data combining diatom, ostracod, sedimentological, geochemical and stable isotope analyses from a ca. 6000-year-old lake sediment core from Son Kol (Central Kyrgyzstan) show distinct and repeated changes in species assemblages. Diatom- and ostracod-inferred conductivity shifts between meso-euhaline and freshwater conditions suggest water balance and regime shifts. Organism-derived data are corroborated by stable isotope, mineralogical and geochemical records, underlining that Son Kol was affected by strong lake level fluctuations of several meters. The δ13Ccarb/δ18Ocarb correlation shows repeated switchovers from a closed to an open lake system. From 6000 to 3800 and 3250 to 1950 cal. yr BP, Son Kol was a closed basin lake with higher conductivities, increased nutrient availability and a water level located below the modern outflow. Son Kol became again a hydrologically open lake at 3800 and 1950 cal. yr BP. Comparisons to other local and regional paleoclimate records indicate that these regime shifts were largely controlled by changing intensity and position of the Westerlies and the Siberian Anticyclone that triggered changes in the amount of winter precipitation. A strong influence of the Westerlies ca. 5000-4400, 3800-3250 and since 1950 cal. yr BP enhanced the amount of precipitation during spring, autumn and winter, whereas cold and dry winters prevailed during phases with a strong Siberian Anticyclone and southward shifted Westerlies at ca. 6000-5000, 4400-3800 and 3250-1950 cal. yr BP. Similarities between variations in winter precipitation at Son Kol and records of the predominant NAO-mode further suggest a teleconnection between wet (dry) winter climate in Central Asia and a positive (negative) NAO

Electron temperature gradient driven instability in the tokamak boundary plasma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu, X.Q.; Rosenbluth, M.N.; Diamond, P.H.

1992-01-01

A general method is developed for calculating boundary plasma fluctuations across a magnetic separatrix in a tokamak with a divertor or a limiter. The slab model, which assumes a periodic plasma in the edge reaching the divertor or limiter plate in the scrape-off layer(SOL), should provide a good estimate, if the radial extent of the fluctuation quantities across the separatrix to the edge is small compared to that given by finite particle banana orbit. The Laplace transform is used for solving the initial value problem. The electron temperature gradient(ETG) driven instability is found to grow like t -1/2 e γmt

Interdisciplinary process driven performative morphologies : A morphogenomic approach towards developing context aware spatial formations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Biloria, N.M.

2011-01-01

Architectural praxis is in continuous state of change. The introduction of information technology driven design techniques, constantly updating building information modeling protocols, new policy demands coupled together with environmental regulations and cultural fluctuations are all open-ended

Modeling Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat in warm climates: a historical perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollard, D.; Deconto, R. M.; Gasson, E.

2016-12-01

Early modeling of Antarctic Ice Sheet size vs. climate focused on asymmetry between retreat and growth, with much greater warming needed to cause retreat from full ice cover, due to Height Mass Balance Feedback and albedo feedback. This led to a long-standing model-data conflict, with models needing 1000 to2000 ppmv atmospheric CO2 to produce retreat from full size, vs. proxy data of large ice fluctuations despite much lower CO2 since the Miocene.Subsequent modeling with marine ice physics found that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could undergo repeated warm-period collapses with realistic past forcing. However, that yields only 3 to 7 m equivalent sea-level rise above modern, compared to 10 to 20 m or more suggested by some geologic data. Large subglacial basins in East Antarctica could be vulnerable to the same processes,but did not retreat in most models due to narrower and shallower sills.After recent modifications, some ice sheet models were able to produce warm-period collapse of major East Antarctic basins, with sea-level rise of up to 15 m. The modifications are (i) hydrofracturing by surface melt, and structural failure of ice cliffs, or (ii) numerical treatment at the grounding line. In these models, large retreat occurs both for past warmintervals, and also for future business-as-usual scenarios.Some interpretations of data in the late Oligocene and Miocene suggest yet larger fluctuations, between 50 to 100% of modern Antarctic size. That would require surface-melt driven retreat of some terrestrial East Antarctic ice, despite the hysteresis issue raised above. A recent study using a coupled climate-ice sheet model found that with a finer climate gridand more frequent coupling exchange, substantial retreat of terrestrial Antarctica can occur with 500 to 840 ppmv CO2, much lower than in earlier models. This will allow meaningful interactions between modeling and deeper-time geologic interpretations since the late Oligocene.

Fluctuating selection on basal metabolic rate.

Science.gov (United States)

Nilsson, Johan F; Nilsson, Jan-Åke

2016-02-01

BMR (Basal metabolic rate) is an important trait in animal life history as it represents a significant part of animal energy budgets. BMR has also been shown to be positively related to sustainable work rate and maximal thermoregulatory capacity. To this date, most of the studies have focused on the causes of interspecific and intraspecific variation in BMR, and fairly little is known about the fitness consequences of different metabolic strategies. In this study, we show that winter BMR affects local survival in a population of wild blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus), but that the selection direction differs between years. We argue that this fluctuating selection is probably a consequence of varying winter climate with a positive relation between survival and BMR during cold and harsh conditions, but a negative relation during mild winters. This fluctuating selection can not only explain the pronounced variation in BMR in wild populations, but will also give us new insights into how energy turnover rates can shape the life-history strategies of animals. Furthermore, the study shows that the process of global warming may cause directional selection for a general reduction in BMR, affecting the general life-history strategy on the population level.

Fluctuations and Photons

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Sourendu

2007-01-01

In this talk I discuss measures of fluctuations, especially those leading to the proof that the quark gluon plasma indeed contains quarks. I discuss the quark mass dependence of the critical end point of QCD. Then I discuss probes of the QCD critical point. Non-gaussian behaviour of event-to-event fluctuations of conserved quantum numbers is one such probe. Another is due to the coupling of fluctuations in baryon number and electrical charge, giving rise to long range random fluctuations of local charge density which relax slowly. These fluctuations can scatter photons, giving rise to critical opalescence

Fluctuations and Photons

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Sourendu

2007-02-01

In this talk I discuss measures of fluctuations, especially those leading to the proof that the quark gluon plasma indeed contains quarks. I discuss the quark mass dependence of the critical end point of QCD. Then I discuss probes of the QCD critical point. Non-gaussian behaviour of event-to-event fluctuations of conserved quantum numbers is one such probe. Another is due to the coupling of fluctuations in baryon number and electrical charge, giving rise to long range random fluctuations of local charge density which relax slowly. These fluctuations can scatter photons, giving rise to critical opalescence.

Fluctuations and Photons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, Sourendu [Department of Theoretical Physics, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Homi Bhabha Road, Mumbai 400005 (India)

2007-02-15

In this talk I discuss measures of fluctuations, especially those leading to the proof that the quark gluon plasma indeed contains quarks. I discuss the quark mass dependence of the critical end point of QCD. Then I discuss probes of the QCD critical point. Non-gaussian behaviour of event-to-event fluctuations of conserved quantum numbers is one such probe. Another is due to the coupling of fluctuations in baryon number and electrical charge, giving rise to long range random fluctuations of local charge density which relax slowly. These fluctuations can scatter photons, giving rise to critical opalescence.

Theory of resistivity-gradient-driven turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garcia, L.; Carreras, B.A.; Diamond, P.H.; Callen, J.D.

1984-10-01

A theory of the nonlinear evolution and saturation of resistivity-driven turbulence, which evolves from linear rippling instabilities, is presented. The nonlinear saturation mechanism is identified both analytically and numerically. Saturation occurs when the turbulent diffusion of the resistivity is large enough so that dissipation due to parallel electron thermal conduction balances the nonlinearly modified resistivity gradient driving term. The levels of potential, resistivity, and density fluctuations at saturation are calculated. A combination of computational modeling and analytic treatment is used in this investigation

Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin

2015-06-01

The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals.

Can changes in the distributions of resident birds in China over the past 50 years be attributed to climate change?

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Jianguo; Zhang, Guobin

2015-01-01

The distributions of bird species have changed over the past 50 years in China. To evaluate whether the changes can be attributed to the changing climate, we analyzed the distributions of 20 subspecies of resident birds in relation to climate change. Long-term records of bird distributions, gray relational analysis, fuzzy-set classification techniques, and attribution methods were used. Among the 20 subspecies of resident birds, the northern limits of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward since the 1960s, and most changes have been related to the thermal index. Driven by climate change over the past 50 years, the suitable range and latitude or longitude of the distribution centers of certain birds have exhibited increased fluctuations. The northern boundaries of over half of the subspecies have shifted northward compared with those in the 1960s. The consistency between the observed and predicted changes in the range limits was quite high for some subspecies. The changes in the northern boundaries or the latitudes of the centers of distribution of nearly half of the subspecies can be attributed to climate change. The results suggest that climate change has affected the distributions of particular birds. The method used to attribute changes in bird distributions to climate change may also be effective for other animals. PMID:26078858

Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jaagus, J.

1996-01-01

Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

Limiter effects on scrape-off layer fluctuations and transport

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thayer, D.R.; Diamond, P.H.; Wootton, A.J.

1987-01-01

Edge turbulence experiments indicate that radial particle flux increases as a function of radius up to the scrape-off layer (SOL), and that the Boltzman relation is violated. Resistivity gradient driven turbulence (RGDT) theory has been shown to track the radial dependence of the particle flux in the plasma edge closer than dissipative density gradient driven turbulence (DDGDT) theory. Also, the Boltzman relation is not invoked for RGDT while it is usually assumed for DDGDT. Consequently, RGDT is a more likely candidate for an edge turbulence model. However, Langmuir probe experiments indicate that the particle flux is reduced by as much as 50% in the SOL. Thus, since basic turbulence theories do not account for limiter effects, the primary focus of this study is to include such effects in a RGDT theory of the SOL. We present an analysis of SOL fluctuations using a rippling mode or RGDT calculation which incorporates the essential limiter boundary condition.(orig./GG)

Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Prudhomme

2013-04-01

Full Text Available Potential evapotranspiration (PET is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within

Tracking Lateglacial and early Holocene environmental change: a palaeolimnological study of sediment at Preluca Tiganului, NW Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angelica Feurdean

2005-04-01

Full Text Available Palaeoecological, palaeohydrological, and paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the Late Glacial and the early Holocene have been performed from sediment accumulated in a small former crater lake, in the GutâI Mountains, NW Romania. Pollen, lithology, mineral magnetic, and loss-on-ignition analyses in conjunction to radiocarbon dating have been use for this purpose. The data indicates that during the Late Glacial period, vegetation dynamics were likely driven by climatic fluctuations. The climate events during the Late Glacial are well mirrored in local vegetation assemblage development, and past lake level fluctuations. These climatic events recorded in south-eastern Europe, are well correlated with the climate events from the North Western Europe and Greenland ice core stratigraphy.

Noise induced chaos in optically driven colloidal rings.

Science.gov (United States)

Roichman, Yael; Zaslavsky, George; Grier, David G.

2007-03-01

Given a constant flux of energy, many driven dissipative systems rapidly organize themselves into configurations that support steady state motion. Examples include swarming of bacterial colonies, convection in shaken sandpiles, and synchronization in flowing traffic. How simple objects interacting in simple ways self-organize generally is not understood, mainly because so few of the available experimental systems afford the necessary access to their microscopic degrees of freedom. This talk introduces a new class of model driven dissipative systems typified by three colloidal spheres circulating around a ring-like optical trap known as an optical vortex. By controlling the interplay between hydrodynamic interactions and fixed disorder we are able to drive a transition from a previously predicted periodic steady state to fully developed chaos. In addition, by tracking both microscopic trajectories and macroscopic collective fluctuations the relation between the onset of microscopic weak chaos and the evolution of space-time self-similarity in macroscopic transport properties is revealed. In a broader scope, several optical vortices can be coupled to create a large dissipative system where each building block has internal degrees of freedom. In such systems the little understood dynamics of processes like frustration and jamming, fluctuation-dissipation relations and the propagation of collective motion can be tracked microscopically.

Magnetic fluctuations associated with density fluctuations in the tokamak edge

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Y.J.; Gentle, K.W.; Ritz, C.P.; Rhodes, T.L.; Bengtson, R.D.

1989-01-01

Electrostatic density and potential fluctuations occurring with high amplitude near the edge of a tokamak are correlated with components of the fluctuating magnetic field measured outside the limiter radius. It has been established that this turbulence is associated with fluctuations in current as well as density and potential. The correlation extends for substantial toroidal distances, but only if the probes are displaced approximately along field lines, consistent with the short coherence lengths poloidally but long coherence lengths parallel to the field which are characteristic for this turbulence. Furthermore, the correlation can be found only with density fluctuations measured inside the limiter radius; density fluctuations behind the limiter have no detectable magnetic concomitant for the toroidally spaced probes used here. (author). Letter-to-the-editor. 12 refs, 3 figs

Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

2015-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

A global model of malaria climate sensitivity: comparing malaria response to historic climate data based on simulation and officially reported malaria incidence

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Edlund Stefan

2012-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The role of the Anopheles vector in malaria transmission and the effect of climate on Anopheles populations are well established. Models of the impact of climate change on the global malaria burden now have access to high-resolution climate data, but malaria surveillance data tends to be less precise, making model calibration problematic. Measurement of malaria response to fluctuations in climate variables offers a way to address these difficulties. Given the demonstrated sensitivity of malaria transmission to vector capacity, this work tests response functions to fluctuations in land surface temperature and precipitation. Methods This study of regional sensitivity of malaria incidence to year-to-year climate variations used an extended Macdonald Ross compartmental disease model (to compute malaria incidence built on top of a global Anopheles vector capacity model (based on 10 years of satellite climate data. The predicted incidence was compared with estimates from the World Health Organization and the Malaria Atlas. The models and denominator data used are freely available through the Eclipse Foundation’s Spatiotemporal Epidemiological Modeller (STEM. Results Although the absolute scale factor relating reported malaria to absolute incidence is uncertain, there is a positive correlation between predicted and reported year-to-year variation in malaria burden with an averaged root mean square (RMS error of 25% comparing normalized incidence across 86 countries. Based on this, the proposed measure of sensitivity of malaria to variations in climate variables indicates locations where malaria is most likely to increase or decrease in response to specific climate factors. Bootstrapping measures the increased uncertainty in predicting malaria sensitivity when reporting is restricted to national level and an annual basis. Results indicate a potential 20x improvement in accuracy if data were available at the level ISO 3166–2

Climate change and pastoralists: investing in people to respond to adversity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hesse, Ced; Cotula, Lorenzo

2006-10-15

While climatic fluctuations have always been a defining feature of dryland areas, and pastoralists have developed resilient livelihood systems to cope with difficult climates, global climate change is raising new challenges for pastoral systems in Africa and elsewhere. Action at local, national and international levels is needed to prevent destitution and help pastoral groups respond to the changing environment.

Short-term climatic fluctuations and the interpretation of recent observations in terms of greenhouse effect

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andre, J.C.; Royer, J.F.

1999-01-01

Simulations of future climate made with coupled general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean predict that the increase of the concentration of greenhouse gases released in the atmosphere by man's activities will have a large influence on the climate of the next century. The identification of the climatic impact produced by the rapid increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the last decades is made difficult by strong inter-annual climate variability, and requires the application of statistical techniques combining several climatic indicators (method of climatic 'fingerprints') so as to improve the detection of a possible anthropogenic perturbation. In this paper we review the evolution through the last decades of several climate indicators showing global warming, its geographical distribution, sea level, the hydrological cycle and the response of vegetation, and we compare them to the model results predicted in climate scenarios. The coherence between model results and observed climatic trends shows that the additional greenhouse effect is starting to become detectable in recent climatic data. (authors)

Lyman-alpha clouds as a relic of primordial density fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bond, J.R.; Szalay, A.S.; Silk, J.

1988-01-01

Primordial density fluctuations are studied using a CDM model and primordial clouds some of which are expanding, driven by pressure gradients created when the medium is photionized, and some of which are massive enough to continue collapsing in spite of the pressure. Normalization of CDM models to the clustering properties on large scales are used to predict the parameters of collapsing clouds of subgalactic mass at early epochs. It is shown that the abundance and dimensions of these clouds are comparable to those of the Lyman-alpha systems. The evolutionary history of the clouds is computed, utilizing a spherically symmetric hydrodynamics code with the dark matter treated as a collisionless fluid, and the H I column density distribution is evaluated as a function of N(H I) and redshift. The observed cloud parameters come out naturally in the CDM model and suggest that Lyman-alpha clouds are the missing link between primordial density fluctuations and the formation of galaxies. 31 references

Catalytic micromotor generating self-propelled regular motion through random fluctuation

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, Daigo; Mukai, Atsushi; Okita, Naoaki; Yoshikawa, Kenichi; Shioi, Akihisa

2013-07-01

Most of the current studies on nano/microscale motors to generate regular motion have adapted the strategy to fabricate a composite with different materials. In this paper, we report that a simple object solely made of platinum generates regular motion driven by a catalytic chemical reaction with hydrogen peroxide. Depending on the morphological symmetry of the catalytic particles, a rich variety of random and regular motions are observed. The experimental trend is well reproduced by a simple theoretical model by taking into account of the anisotropic viscous effect on the self-propelled active Brownian fluctuation.

Firm Dynamics and Markup Variations: Implications for Sunspot Equilibria and Endogenous Economic Fluctuation

OpenAIRE

Nir Jaimovich

2007-01-01

This paper analyzes how the interaction between firms’ entry-and-exit decisions and variations in competition gives rise to self-fulfilling, expectation-driven fluctuations in aggregate economic activity and in measured total factor productivity (TFP). The analysis is based on a dynamic general equilibrium model in which net business formation is endogenously procyclical and leads to endogenous countercyclical variations in markups. This interaction leads to indeterminacy in which economic fl...

Universal bounds on current fluctuations.

Science.gov (United States)

Pietzonka, Patrick; Barato, Andre C; Seifert, Udo

2016-05-01

For current fluctuations in nonequilibrium steady states of Markovian processes, we derive four different universal bounds valid beyond the Gaussian regime. Different variants of these bounds apply to either the entropy change or any individual current, e.g., the rate of substrate consumption in a chemical reaction or the electron current in an electronic device. The bounds vary with respect to their degree of universality and tightness. A universal parabolic bound on the generating function of an arbitrary current depends solely on the average entropy production. A second, stronger bound requires knowledge both of the thermodynamic forces that drive the system and of the topology of the network of states. These two bounds are conjectures based on extensive numerics. An exponential bound that depends only on the average entropy production and the average number of transitions per time is rigorously proved. This bound has no obvious relation to the parabolic bound but it is typically tighter further away from equilibrium. An asymptotic bound that depends on the specific transition rates and becomes tight for large fluctuations is also derived. This bound allows for the prediction of the asymptotic growth of the generating function. Even though our results are restricted to networks with a finite number of states, we show that the parabolic bound is also valid for three paradigmatic examples of driven diffusive systems for which the generating function can be calculated using the additivity principle. Our bounds provide a general class of constraints for nonequilibrium systems.

Quantum fluctuations from thermal fluctuations in Jacobson formalism

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Faizal, Mir [University of British Columbia-Okanagan, Irving K. Barber School of Arts and Sciences, Kelowna, BC (Canada); University of Lethbridge, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Lethbridge, AB (Canada); Ashour, Amani; Alcheikh, Mohammad [Damascus University, Mathematics Department, Faculty of Science, Damascus (Syrian Arab Republic); Alasfar, Lina [Universite Clermont Auvergne, Laboratoire de Physique Corpusculaire de Clermont-Ferrand, Aubiere (France); Alsaleh, Salwa; Mahroussah, Ahmed [King Saud University, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)

2017-09-15

In the Jacobson formalism general relativity is obtained from thermodynamics. This is done by using the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy-area relation. However, as a black hole gets smaller, its temperature will increase. This will cause the thermal fluctuations to also increase, and these will in turn correct the Bekenstein-Hawking entropy-area relation. Furthermore, with the reduction in the size of the black hole, quantum effects will also start to dominate. Just as the general relativity can be obtained from thermodynamics in the Jacobson formalism, we propose that the quantum fluctuations to the geometry can be obtained from thermal fluctuations. (orig.)

Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Baum, Seth D; Haqq-Misra, Jacob D; Karmosky, Chris

2012-06-01

In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

Nonlinear quenching of current fluctuations in a self-exciting homopolar dynamo

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Hide

1997-01-01

Full Text Available In the interpretation of geomagnetic polarity reversals with their highly variable frequency over geological time it is necessary, as with other irregularly fluctuating geophysical phenomena, to consider the relative importance of forced contributions associated with changing boundary conditions and of free contributions characteristic of the behaviour of nonlinear systems operating under fixed boundary conditions.  New evidence -albeit indirect- in favour of the likely predominance of forced contributions is provided by the discovery reported here of the possibility of complete quenching by nonlineax effects of current fluctuations in a self-exciting homopolar dynamo with its single Faraday disk driven into rotation with angular speed y(τ (where τ denotes time by a steady applied couple.  The armature of an electric motor connected in series with the coil of the dynamo is driven into rotation' with angular speed z(τ by a torque xf (x due to Lorentz forces associated with the electric current x(τ in the system (just as certain parts of the spectrum of eddies within the liquid outer core are generated largely by Lorentz forces associated with currents generated by the self-exciting magnetohydrodynamic (MHD geodynamo.   The discovery is based on bifurcation analysis supported by computational studies of the following (mathematically novel autonomous set of nonlinear ordinary differential equations: dx/dt = x(y - 1 - βzf(x, dy/dt = α(1 - x² - κy, dz/dt = xf (x -λz,          where f (x = 1 - ε + εσx, in cases when the dimensionless parameters (α, β, κ, λ, σ are all positive and 0 ≤ ε ≤ 1. Within those regions of (α, β, κ, λ, σ parameter space where the applied couple, as measured by α, is strong enough for persistent dynamo action (i.e. x ≠ 0 to occur at all, there are in general extensive regions where x(τ exhibits large amplitude regular or irregular (chaotic fluctuations.  But these fluctuating r

Climate and dengue transmission: evidence and implications.

Science.gov (United States)

Morin, Cory W; Comrie, Andrew C; Ernst, Kacey

2013-01-01

Climate influences dengue ecology by affecting vector dynamics, agent development, and mosquito/human interactions. Although these relationships are known, the impact climate change will have on transmission is unclear. Climate-driven statistical and process-based models are being used to refine our knowledge of these relationships and predict the effects of projected climate change on dengue fever occurrence, but results have been inconsistent. We sought to identify major climatic influences on dengue virus ecology and to evaluate the ability of climate-based dengue models to describe associations between climate and dengue, simulate outbreaks, and project the impacts of climate change. We reviewed the evidence for direct and indirect relationships between climate and dengue generated from laboratory studies, field studies, and statistical analyses of associations between vectors, dengue fever incidence, and climate conditions. We assessed the potential contribution of climate-driven, process-based dengue models and provide suggestions to improve their performance. Relationships between climate variables and factors that influence dengue transmission are complex. A climate variable may increase dengue transmission potential through one aspect of the system while simultaneously decreasing transmission potential through another. This complexity may at least partly explain inconsistencies in statistical associations between dengue and climate. Process-based models can account for the complex dynamics but often omit important aspects of dengue ecology, notably virus development and host-species interactions. Synthesizing and applying current knowledge of climatic effects on all aspects of dengue virus ecology will help direct future research and enable better projections of climate change effects on dengue incidence.

Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Waal, D.B.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; van Donk, E.; Huisman, J.

2010-01-01

Advances in ecological stoichiometry, a rapidly expanding research field investigating the elemental composition of organisms and their environment, have shed new light on the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Current changes in the Earth's climate alter the availability

Fluctuation theorem for entropy production during effusion of an ideal gas with momentum transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Kevin; Van den Broeck, C; Kawai, R; Lindenberg, Katja

2007-06-01

We derive an exact expression for entropy production during effusion of an ideal gas driven by momentum transfer in addition to energy and particle flux. Following the treatment in Cleuren [Phys. Rev. E 74, 021117 (2006)], we construct a master equation formulation of the process and explicitly verify the thermodynamic fluctuation theorem, thereby directly exhibiting its extended applicability to particle flows and hence to hydrodynamic systems.

Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

2015-04-01

Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Power injected in dissipative systems and the fluctuation theorem

Science.gov (United States)

Aumaître, S.; Fauve, S.; McNamara, S.; Poggi, P.

We consider three examples of dissipative dynamical systems involving many degrees of freedom, driven far from equilibrium by a constant or time dependent forcing. We study the statistical properties of the injected and dissipated power as well as the fluctuations of the total energy of these systems. The three systems under consideration are: a shell model of turbulence, a gas of hard spheres colliding inelastically and excited by a vibrating piston, and a Burridge-Knopoff spring-block model. Although they involve different types of forcing and dissipation, we show that the statistics of the injected power obey the ``fluctuation theorem" demonstrated in the case of time reversible dissipative systems maintained at constant total energy, or in the case of some stochastic processes. Although this may be only a consequence of the theory of large deviations, this allows a possible definition of ``temperature" for a dissipative system out of equilibrium. We consider how this ``temperature" scales with the energy and the number of degrees of freedom in the different systems under consideration.

Late Quaternary changes in climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Holmgren, K; Karlen, W [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Physical Geography

1998-12-01

This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

Late Quaternary changes in climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmgren, K.; Karlen, W.

1998-12-01

This review concerns the Quaternary climate with an emphasis on the last 200 000 years. The present state of art in this field is described and evaluated. The review builds on a thorough examination of classic and recent literature. General as well as detailed patterns in climate are described and the forcing factors and feed-back effects are discussed. Changes in climate occur on all time-scales. During more than 90% of the Quaternary period earth has experienced vast ice sheets, i.e. glaciations have been more normal for the period than the warm interglacial conditions we face today. Major changes in climate, such as the 100 000 years glacial/interglacial cycle, are forced by the Milankovitch three astronomical cycles. Because the cycles have different length climate changes on earth do not follow a simple pattern and it is not possible to find perfect analogues of a certain period in the geological record. Recent discoveries include the observation that major changes in climate seem to occur at the same time on both hemispheres, although the astronomical theory implies a time-lag between latitudes. This probably reflects the influence of feed-back effects within the climate system. Another recent finding of importance is the rapid fluctuations that seem to be a normal process. When earth warmed after the last glaciation temperature jumps of up to 10 deg C occurred within less than a decade and precipitation more than doubled within the same time. The forcing factors behind these rapid fluctuations are not well understood but are believed to be a result of major re-organisations in the oceanic circulation. Realizing that nature, on its own, can cause rapid climate changes of this magnitude put some perspective on the anthropogenic global warming debate, where it is believed that the release of greenhouse gases will result in a global warming of a few C. To understand the forcing behind natural rapid climate changes appears as important as to understand the role

Dansgaard–Oeschger events: bifurcation points in the climate system

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. Cimatoribus

2013-02-01

Full Text Available Dansgaard–Oeschger events are a prominent mode of variability in the records of the last glacial cycle. Various prototype models have been proposed to explain these rapid climate fluctuations, and no agreement has emerged on which may be the more correct for describing the palaeoclimatic signal. In this work, we assess the bimodality of the system, reconstructing the topology of the multi-dimensional attractor over which the climate system evolves. We use high-resolution ice core isotope data to investigate the statistical properties of the climate fluctuations in the period before the onset of the abrupt change. We show that Dansgaard–Oeschger events have weak early warning signals if the ensemble of events is considered. We find that the statistics are consistent with the switches between two different climate equilibrium states in response to a changing external forcing (e.g. solar, ice sheets, either forcing directly the transition or pacing it through stochastic resonance. These findings are most consistent with a model that associates Dansgaard–Oeschger with changing boundary conditions, and with the presence of a bifurcation point.

Climate bifurcation during the last deglaciation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. M. Lenton

2012-07-01

Full Text Available There were two abrupt warming events during the last deglaciation, at the start of the Bølling-Allerød and at the end of the Younger Dryas, but their underlying dynamics are unclear. Some abrupt climate changes may involve gradual forcing past a bifurcation point, in which a prevailing climate state loses its stability and the climate tips into an alternative state, providing an early warning signal in the form of slowing responses to perturbations, which may be accompanied by increasing variability. Alternatively, short-term stochastic variability in the climate system can trigger abrupt climate changes, without early warning. Previous work has found signals consistent with slowing down during the last deglaciation as a whole, and during the Younger Dryas, but with conflicting results in the run-up to the Bølling-Allerød. Based on this, we hypothesise that a bifurcation point was approached at the end of the Younger Dryas, in which the cold climate state, with weak Atlantic overturning circulation, lost its stability, and the climate tipped irreversibly into a warm interglacial state. To test the bifurcation hypothesis, we analysed two different climate proxies in three Greenland ice cores, from the Last Glacial Maximum to the end of the Younger Dryas. Prior to the Bølling warming, there was a robust increase in climate variability but no consistent slowing down signal, suggesting this abrupt change was probably triggered by a stochastic fluctuation. The transition to the warm Bølling-Allerød state was accompanied by a slowing down in climate dynamics and an increase in climate variability. We suggest that the Bølling warming excited an internal mode of variability in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation strength, causing multi-centennial climate fluctuations. However, the return to the Younger Dryas cold state increased climate stability. We find no consistent evidence for slowing down during the Younger Dryas, or in a longer

Experimental and theoretical evidence for fluctuation driven activations in an excitable chemical system

Science.gov (United States)

Hastings, Harold; Sobel, Sabrina; Field, Richard; Minchenberg, Scott; Spinelli, Nicole; Zauderer, Keith

2011-03-01

An excitable medium is a system in which small perturbations die out, but sufficiently large perturbations generate large ``excitations.'' Biological examples include neurons and the heart; the latter supports waves of excitation normally generated by the sinus node, but occasionally generated by other mechanisms. The ferroin-catalyzed Belousov-Zhabotinsky reaction is the prototype chemical excitable medium. We present experimental and theoretical evidence for that random fluctuations can generate excitations in the Belousov-Zhabothinsky reaction. Although the heart is significantly different, there are some scaling analogies. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FG02-08ER64623.

Role of impurity dynamics in resistivity-gradient-driven turbulence and tokamak edge plasma phenomena

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hahm, T.S.; Diamond, P.H.; Terry, P.W.; Garcia, L.; Carreras, B.A.

1986-03-01

The role of impurity dynamics in resistivity gradient driven turbulence is investigated in the context of modeling tokamak edge plasma phenomena. The effects of impurity concentration fluctuations and gradients on the linear behavior of rippling instabilities and on the nonlinear evolution and saturation of resistivity gradient driven turbulence are studied both analytically and computationally. At saturation, fluctuation levels and particle and thermal diffusivities are calculated. In particular, the mean-square turbulent radial velocity is given by 2 > = (E 0 L/sub s/B/sub z/) 2 (L/sub/eta/ -1 + L/sub z -1 ) 2 . Thus, edged peaked impurity concentrations tend to enhance the turbulence, while axially peaked concentrations tend to quench it. The theoretical predictions are in semi-quantitative agreement with experimental results from the TEXT, Caltech, and Tosca tokamaks. Finally, a theory of the density clamp observed during CO-NBI on the ISX-B tokamak is proposed

Extreme concentration fluctuations due to local reversibility of mixing in turbulent flows

Science.gov (United States)

Xia, Hua; Francois, Nicolas; Punzmann, Horst; Szewc, Kamil; Shats, Michael

2018-05-01

Mixing of a passive scalar in a fluid (e.g. a radioactive spill in the ocean) is the irreversible process towards homogeneous distribution of a substance. In a moving fluid, due to the chaotic advection [H. Aref, J. Fluid Mech. 143 (1984) 1; J. M. Ottino, The Kinematics of Mixing: Stretching,Chaos and Transport (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1989)] mixing is much faster than if driven by molecular diffusion only. Turbulence is known as the most efficient mixing flow [B. I. Shraiman and E. D. Siggia, Nature 405 (2000) 639]. We show that in contrast to spatially periodic flows, two-dimensional turbulence exhibits local reversibility in mixing, which leads to the generation of unpredictable strong fluctuations in the scalar concentration. These fluctuations can also be detected from the analysis of the fluid particle trajectories of the underlying flow.

Fluctuations When Driving Between Nonequilibrium Steady States

Science.gov (United States)

Riechers, Paul M.; Crutchfield, James P.

2017-08-01

Maintained by environmental fluxes, biological systems are thermodynamic processes that operate far from equilibrium without detailed-balanced dynamics. Yet, they often exhibit well defined nonequilibrium steady states (NESSs). More importantly, critical thermodynamic functionality arises directly from transitions among their NESSs, driven by environmental switching. Here, we identify the constraints on excess heat and dissipated work necessary to control a system that is kept far from equilibrium by background, uncontrolled "housekeeping" forces. We do this by extending the Crooks fluctuation theorem to transitions among NESSs, without invoking an unphysical dual dynamics. This and corresponding integral fluctuation theorems determine how much work must be expended when controlling systems maintained far from equilibrium. This generalizes thermodynamic feedback control theory, showing that Maxwellian Demons can leverage mesoscopic-state information to take advantage of the excess energetics in NESS transitions. We also generalize an approach recently used to determine the work dissipated when driving between functionally relevant configurations of an active energy-consuming complex system. Altogether, these results highlight universal thermodynamic laws that apply to the accessible degrees of freedom within the effective dynamic at any emergent level of hierarchical organization. By way of illustration, we analyze a voltage-gated sodium ion channel whose molecular conformational dynamics play a critical functional role in propagating action potentials in mammalian neuronal membranes.

Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium ice sheet volume

Science.gov (United States)

Bøgeholm Mikkelsen, Troels; Grinsted, Aslak; Ditlevsen, Peter

2018-01-01

Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB) of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent) smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr-1 (24-59 Gt yr-1, 95 % credibility) for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10-25, 95 % credibility) of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10-0.18 °C, 95 % credibility) for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.

Electron Temperature Fluctuation Measurements and Transport Model Validation at Alcator C-Mod

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

White, Anne [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States)

2017-06-22

for studying core turbulence are needed in order to assess the accuracy of gyrokinetic models for turbulent-driven particle, heat and momentum transport. New core turbulence diagnostics at the world-class tokamaks Alcator C-Mod at MIT and ASDEX Upgrade at the Max Planck Institute for Plasma Physics have been designed, developed, and operated over the course of this project. These new instruments are capable of measuring electron temperature fluctuations and the phase angle between density and temperature fluctuations locally and quantitatively. These new data sets from Alcator C-Mod and ASDEX Upgrade are being used to fill key gaps in our understanding of turbulent transport in tokamaks. In particular, this project has results in new results on the topics of the Transport Shortfall, the role of ETG turbulence in tokamak plasmas, profile stiffness, the LOC/SOC transition, and intrinsic rotation reversals. These data are used in a rigorous process of “Transport model validation”, and this group is a world-leader on using turbulence models to design new hardware and new experiments at tokamaks. A correlation electron cyclotron emission (CECE) diagnostic is an instrument used to measure micro-scale fluctuations (mm-scale, compared to the machine size of meters) of electron temperature in magnetically confined fusion plasmas, such as those in tokamaks and stellarators. These micro-scale fluctuations are associated with drift-wave type turbulence, which leads to enhanced cooling and mixing of particles in fusion plasmas and limits achieving the required temperatures and densities for self-sustained fusion reactions. A CECE system can also be coupled with a reflectometer system that measured micro-scale density fluctuations, and from these simultaneous measurements, one can extract the phase between the density (n) and temperature (T) fluctuations, creating an nT phase diagnostic. Measurements of the fluctuations and the phase angle between them are extremely useful for

Modeling the response of subglacial drainage at Paakitsoq, west Greenland, to 21st century climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Mayaud, Jerome R.; Banwell, Alison F.; Arnold, Neil S.; Willis, Ian C.

2014-12-01

Although the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is losing mass at an accelerating rate, much uncertainty remains about how surface runoff interacts with the subglacial drainage system and affects water pressures and ice velocities, both currently, and into the future. Here, we apply a physically based, subglacial hydrological model to the Paakitsoq region, west Greenland, and run it into the future to calculate patterns of daily subglacial water pressure fluctuations in response to climatic warming. The model is driven with moulin input hydrographs calculated by a surface routing model, forced with distributed runoff. Surface runoff and routing are simulated for a baseline year (2000), before the model is forced with future climate scenarios for the years 2025, 2050, and 2095, based on the IPCC's Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our results show that as runoff increases throughout the 21st century, and/or as RCP scenarios become more extreme, the subglacial drainage system makes an earlier transition from a less efficient network operating at high water pressures, to a more efficient network with lower pressures. This will likely cause an overall decrease in ice velocities for marginal areas of the GrIS. However, short-term variations in runoff, and therefore subglacial pressure, can still cause localized speedups, even after the system has become more efficient. If these short-term pressure fluctuations become more pronounced as future runoff increases, the associated late-season speedups may help to compensate for the drop in overall summer velocities, associated with earlier transitioning from a high to a low pressure system.

Modelling Interglacial Climate

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Rasmus Anker

the impact of a changing sea ice cover. The first part focusses on the last interglacial climate (125,000 years before present) which was characterized by substantial warming at high northern latitudes due to an increased insolation during summer. The simulations reveal that the oceanic changes dominate......Past warm climate states could potentially provide information on future global warming. The past warming was driven by changed insolation rather than an increased greenhouse effect, and thus the warm climate states are expected to be different. Nonetheless, the response of the climate system......, with maximum warming occurring in winter. The three scenarios all affect the climate beyond the Arctic, especially the mid-latitude circulation which is sensitive to the location of the ice loss. Together, the results presented in this thesis illustrate that the changes in the Arctic sea ice cover...

Climate change in Greenland, Denmark and the Levant

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schrøder, Niels

presented their isotopic records it was clear that the records were similar showing a series of climatic fluctuations (Dansgaard/Oescher events) We have re-examined the Yarbrud site in Syria (OSL dating and pollen analysis) in the hope that we could correlate the 25 cultural layers here (Rust 1950......), with the Dansgaard/Oescher events. It is concluded that: The effect of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation), given rise to opposite climate conditions in Denmark (NW Europe), the Levant and Greenland in the observation based climatic overview showis an interannual to decadal correlation of the climate...... Oscillation), archaeology, pollen, Blytt-Sernander model....

Heat Driven Cooling in District Energy Systems; Vaermedriven Kyla

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rydstrand, Magnus; Martin, Viktoria; Westermark, Mats [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Dept. of Chemical Engineering and Technology

2004-07-01

This report is reviewing different heat driven technologies for the production of cooling. It is shown that the supply of cooling gives the highest fuel utilization if heat from CHP production is used for the production of cooling instead of maximizing the electricity output in a condensing plant. High fuel utilization is reached since the direct production of cooling from heat is a thermodynamic shortcut as compared to the production of electricity as an intermediate product before cooling is produced. At direct production of cooling from heat it is possible to obtain 70 percent of the obtainable cooling of an ideal process. If electricity is produced from heat, 70 percent electricity could be obtained as compared to an ideal process. If this electricity would be used for the production of cooling 70 percent of the obtainable cooling in an ideal process would the result. The total production of cooling from heat with electricity as an intermediate product would therefore give 50 percent cooling as compared to an ideal process. Hence, heat driven cooling will give more cooling for a given fuel input. In the review of the different heat driven cooling options it was found that there are many alternatives suitable for different applications. Absorption cooling is suitable for water distributed cooling if the latent cooling load is low. Desiccant cooling is believed to have a large market in climates (applications) with high latent cooling loads. In the energy efficiency evaluation it is found that the highest fuel utilization is given for a central production of electricity using either district heating or district cooling as the energy carrier to supply cooling. In fact the potential of district heating as the energy carrier is thought to be the largest in large cities with humid climates. Further it is found that the chiller heat sink can contribute significantly to the cost in many applications, especially if water and/or electricity consumption are issues with

Precession-driven monsoon variability at the Permian-Triassic boundary — Implications for anoxia and the mass extinction

Science.gov (United States)

Winguth, Arne; Winguth, Cornelia

2013-06-01

By the end of the Late Permian, most continents had collided to form the supercontinent of Pangea. The associated climatic changes at the Permian-Triassic boundary coincided with the most severe mass extinction in the Phanerozoic. One extinction hypothesis favors a climatic response to an increase in large-scale volcanism resulting in ocean stagnation and widespread anoxia with fatal consequences for marine and land organisms. Recent interpretations of geochemical data suggest that orbitally-driven periodic upwelling of toxic hydrogen-sulfide rich water masses contributed to the extinction of species. In this paper, we use the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) in order to explore the effect of eccentricity-modulated changes of the precession on the strength of Pangean megamonsoons and their impact on productivity and oxygen distribution. The climate model simulates high variability in monsoonal precipitation, trade winds and equatorial upwelling in response to precessional extremes, leading to remarkable fluctuations in the export of carbon from the euphotic zone and hence reduction in dissolved oxygen concentrations in subsurface layers. These findings are in general agreement with increased primary productivity, intensified euxinia within the oxygen-minimum zone, and decimation of the radiolarian zooplankton community as inferred from Japanese marine sections. Strong changes in river run-off linked to precipitation oscillations possibly led to a high variability in the nutrient supply to the Tethys Ocean, thus affecting regional productivity and oxygen distribution. The model results suggest that orbital variability in the sedimentary record and the associated extinction of species are related rather to periodic anoxia in near surface-to-intermediate depth than to widespread anoxic events in the Panthalassic deep-sea.

World Regionalization of Climate Change(1961–2010)

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Peijun; Shi; Shao; Sun; Daoyi; Gong; Tao; Zhou

2016-01-01

Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. Climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

Simulation of climate variability and anthropogenic climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bengtsson, Lennart

1999-01-01

The climatic changes in the last century were discussed and focus was on the questions: 1) What are the causes of the rapid climate fluctuations and 2) Is the global warming, which is observed during the last century, caused by natural or anthropogenic effects. It is concluded that an understanding of climate based on the interpretation of observational data only is not feasible, unless supported by an adequate theoretical interpretation. The capabilities of climatic models were discussed and the importance of incorporating 1) calculations of the internal variability of the atmosphere when forced from an ocean with prescribed sea surface temperature as well as for a system consisting of an atmosphere and a mixed ocean of limited depth, 2) a fully coupled atmospheric and ocean model and finally, 3) a fully coupled system including transiently changing greenhouse gases and aerosols. A short summation of the results is presented. The pronounced warming during the last century is not reproduced under the assumption of constant forcing and pollution emissions have to be incorporated into the models in order to bring the simulated data in agreement with observations

Physics of Intrinsic Rotation in Flux-Driven ITG Turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ku, S.; Abiteboul, J.; Dimond, P.H.; Dif-Pradalier, G.; Kwon, J.M.; Sarazin, Y.; Hahm, T.S.; Garbet, X.; Chang, C.S.; Latu, G.; Yoon, E.S.; Ghendrih, Ph.; Yi, S.; Strugarek, A.; Solomon, W.; Grandgirard, V.

2012-01-01

Global, heat flux-driven ITG gyrokinetic simulations which manifest the formation of macroscopic, mean toroidal flow profiles with peak thermal Mach number 0.05, are reported. Both a particle-in-cell (XGC1p) and a semi-Lagrangian (GYSELA) approach are utilized without a priori assumptions of scale-separation between turbulence and mean fields. Flux-driven ITG simulations with different edge flow boundary conditions show in both approaches the development of net unidirectional intrinsic rotation in the co-current direction. Intrinsic torque is shown to scale approximately linearly with the inverse scale length of the ion temperature gradient. External momentum input is shown to effectively cancel the intrinsic rotation profile, thus confirming the existence of a local residual stress and intrinsic torque. Fluctuation intensity, intrinsic torque and mean flow are demonstrated to develop inwards from the boundary. The measured correlations between residual stress and two fluctuation spectrum symmetry breakers, namely E x B shear and intensity gradient, are similar. Avalanches of (positive) heat flux, which propagate either outwards or inwards, are correlated with avalanches of (negative) parallel momentum flux, so that outward transport of heat and inward transport of parallel momentum are correlated and mediated by avalanches. The probability distribution functions of the outward heat flux and the inward momentum flux show strong structural similarity

Far-infrared laser scattering from spontaneous and driven fluctuations in the UCLA microtor tokamak

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, P.; Luhmann, N.C.; Park, H. Jr.; Peebles, W.A.; Taylor, R.J.; Xu, Ying; Yu, C.X.

1982-01-01

A far-infrared (FIR) laser scattering system for the study of tokamak density fluctuations is described. Recent scattering data from low frequency microturbulence in high density (n >= 5 x 10 13 cm -3 ) microtor discharges are presented. In addition, the first observation and identification of internal modes generated during ICRF heating are described. The latter study directly conforms to fast wave mode conversion theory in a two-ion species plasma. In particular, the first internal observation of mode converted ion Bernstein waves in a tokamak plasma has been made. (author)

Climate change and energy demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hengeveld, H.G.

1991-01-01

Climate and weather events affect energy demand in most economic sectors. Linear relationships exist between consumption and heating degree days, and peak electricity demand increases significantly during heat waves. The relative magnitudes of demand changes for a two times carbon dioxide concentration scenario are tabulated, illustrating heating degree days and cooling degree days for 5 Prairie locations. Irrigation, water management, crop seeding and harvesting and weed control are examples of climate-dependent agricultural activities involving significant energy use. The variability of summer season liquid fuel use in the agricultural sector in the Prairie provinces from 1984-1989 shows a relationship between agricultural energy use and regional climate fluctuations. 4 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Regional Climate Modeling and Remote Sensing to Characterize Impacts of Civil War Driven Land Use Change on Regional Hydrology and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

2016-12-01

Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are extensive enough. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from an extended civil conflict in Mozambique. Civil war from 1977-1992 in Mozambique led to land use change at a regional scale as a result of the collapse of large herbivore populations due to poaching. Since the war ended, farming has increased, poaching was curtailed, and animal populations were reintroduced. In this study LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is classified at three instances between 1977 to 2015 using Landsat imagery. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from conflict-driven land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the civil war. Analysis of the Landsat data shows measurable land cover change from 1977-present as tree cover encroached into grasslands. Initial tests show corresponding sensitivities to different LULC schemes within the WRF model. Preliminary results suggest that the war did indeed impact regional hydroclimate in a significant way via its direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions. Results of this study suggest that LULC change arising from regional conflicts are a potentially understudied, yet important human process to capture in both regional reanalyses and climate change projections.

Adjusting water resources management to climate change

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Riebsame, W E

1988-01-01

The nature of climate impacts and adjustment in water supply and flood management is discussed, and a case study of water manager response to climate fluctuation in California's Sacramento Basin is presented. The case illuminates the effect on climate impact and response of traditional management approaches, the dynamic qualities of maturing water systems, socially imposed constraints, and climate extremes. A dual pattern of crisis-response and gradual adjustment emerges, and specific mechanisms for effecting adjustment of water management systems are identified. The case study, and broader trends in US water development, suggest that oversized structural capacity, the traditional adjustment to climate variability in water resources, may prove less feasible in the future as projects become smaller and new facilities are delayed by economic and environmental concerns.

Final Report: Synthesis of aquatic climate change vulnerability assessments for the Interior West

Science.gov (United States)

Megan M. Friggens; Carly K. Woodlief

2015-01-01

Water is a critical resource for humans and ecological systems in the western United States. Aquatic ecosystems including lakes, rivers, riparian areas and wetlands, are at high risk of climate impacts because they experience relatively high exposure to climate fluctuations and extremes. In turn, impacts arising from climate change are far reaching because these...

Ground Water and Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, Richard G.; Scanlon, Bridget; Doell, Petra; Rodell, Matt; van Beek, Rens; Wada, Yoshihide; Longuevergne, Laurent; Leblanc, Marc; Famiglietti, James S.; Edmunds, Mike;

Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Y.

2018-01-01

Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth’s hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid

Acclimation of growing pigs to climatic environment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhagen, J.M.F.

1987-01-01

In intensive pig production the climatic environment has an important impact on productivity and health of the animals. Since factors as draught and fluctuating temperatures are known to influence the incidence and severity of Haemophilus pleuropneumoniae infections in

Driving reconnection in sheared magnetic configurations with forced fluctuations

Science.gov (United States)

Pongkitiwanichakul, Peera; Makwana, Kirit D.; Ruffolo, David

2018-02-01

We investigate reconnection of magnetic field lines in sheared magnetic field configurations due to fluctuations driven by random forcing by means of numerical simulations. The simulations are performed with an incompressible, pseudo-spectral magnetohydrodynamics code in 2D where we take thick, resistively decaying, current-sheet like sheared magnetic configurations which do not reconnect spontaneously. We describe and test the forcing that is introduced in the momentum equation to drive fluctuations. It is found that the forcing does not change the rate of decay; however, it adds and removes energy faster in the presence of the magnetic shear structure compared to when it has decayed away. We observe that such a forcing can induce magnetic reconnection due to field line wandering leading to the formation of magnetic islands and O-points. These reconnecting field lines spread out as the current sheet decays with time. A semi-empirical formula is derived which reasonably explains the formation and spread of O-points. We find that reconnection spreads faster with stronger forcing and longer correlation time of forcing, while the wavenumber of forcing does not have a significant effect. When the field line wandering becomes large enough, the neighboring current sheets with opposite polarity start interacting, and then the magnetic field is rapidly annihilated. This work is useful to understand how forced fluctuations can drive reconnection in large scale current structures in space and astrophysical plasmas that are not susceptible to reconnection.

Effective temperature in driven vortex lattices with random pinning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolton, Alejandro B.; Dominguez, Daniel; Exartier, Raphael; Cugliandolo, Leticia F.; Groenbech-Jensen, N.

2003-09-01

We study numerically correlation and response functions in non-equilibrium driven vortex lattices with random pinning. From a generalized fluctuation-dissipation relation we calculate an effective transverse temperature in the fluid moving phase. We find that the effective temperature decreases with increasing driving force and becomes equal to the equilibrium melting temperature when the dynamic transverse freezing occurs. We also discuss how the effective temperature can be measured experimentally from a generalized Kubo formula. (author)

Challenging climate change : competition and cooperation among pastoralists and agriculturalists in northern Mesopotamia (c. 3000-1600 BC)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wossink, Arne

2009-01-01

Throughout history, climate change has been an important driving force behind human behaviour. This archaeological study seeks to understand the complex interrelations between that behaviour and climatic fluctuations, focussing on how climate affected the social relations between neighbouring

Molecular dynamics study of CO2 hydrate dissociation: Fluctuation-dissipation and non-equilibrium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

English, Niall J; Clarke, Elaine T

2013-09-07

Equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular dynamics (MD) simulations have been performed to investigate thermal-driven break-up of planar CO2 hydrate interfaces in liquid water at 300-320 K. Different guest compositions, at 85%, 95%, and 100% of maximum theoretical occupation, led to statistically-significant differences in the observed initial dissociation rates. The melting temperatures of each interface were estimated, and dissociation rates were observed to be strongly dependent on temperature, with higher dissociation rates at larger over-temperatures vis-à-vis melting. A simple coupled mass and heat transfer model developed previously was applied to fit the observed dissociation profiles, and this helps to identify clearly two distinct régimes of break-up; a second well-defined region is essentially independent of composition and temperature, in which the remaining nanoscale, de facto two-dimensional system's lattice framework is intrinsically unstable. From equilibrium MD of the two-phase systems at their melting point, the relaxation times of the auto-correlation functions of fluctuations in number of enclathrated guest molecules were used as a basis for comparison of the variation in the underlying, non-equilibrium, thermal-driven dissociation rates via Onsager's hypothesis, and statistically significant differences were found, confirming the value of a fluctuation-dissipation approach in this case.

Groundwater movement on a Low-lying Carbonate Atoll Island and its Response to Climatic and Sea-level Fluctuations: Roi Namur, Republic of the Marshall Islands

Science.gov (United States)

Oberle, F. J.; Swarzenski, P. W.; Storlazzi, C. D.

2017-12-01

Atoll islands, most of which only average 1-2 meters above today's sea level, provide a tremendous natural laboratory in which to study and better understand the intensifying impacts of high rates of sea-level rise on tropical reef-lined islands. These islands are unique and on the frontline of negative societal impacts due to their geologic structure and limited water supply. Groundwater resources on atolls are typically minimal due to the low elevation and small surface area of the islands and are also subject to recurring droughts, and more frequent, storm-driven seawater overwash events. Although groundwater is the principal means of freshwater storage on atoll islands and is a major factor in determining the overall sustainability of island settlements, hydrological data on how an aquifer will response to changes in sea-level rise or storm-driven overwash remain limited. Here we present high-resolution time series hydrogeological and geochemical data from a 16 month study to determine the role of an atoll's carbonate geology, land use, and atmospheric and oceanographic forcing in driving coastal groundwater exchange including submarine groundwater discharge on the island of Roi-Namur on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of the Marshall Islands. This information can provide new estimates on the recovery and resilience of coastal groundwater resources on similar islands that are expected to experience climate change-driven perturbations.

Effects of Topography-driven Micro-climatology on Evaporation

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, D. D.; Boll, J.; Wagenbrenner, N. S.

2017-12-01

The effects of spatial-temporal variation of climatic conditions on evaporation in micro-climates are not well defined. Current spatially-based remote sensing and modeling for evaporation is limited for high resolutions and complex topographies. We investigated the effect of topography-driven micro-climatology on evaporation supported by field measurements and modeling. Fourteen anemometers and thermometers were installed in intersecting transects over the complex topography of the Cook Agronomy Farm, Pullman, WA. WindNinja was used to create 2-D vector maps based on recorded observations for wind. Spatial analysis of vector maps using ArcGIS was performed for analysis of wind patterns and variation. Based on field measurements, wind speed and direction show consequential variability based on hill-slope location in this complex topography. Wind speed and wind direction varied up to threefold and more than 45 degrees, respectively for a given time interval. The use of existing wind models enables prediction of wind variability over the landscape and subsequently topography-driven evaporation patterns relative to wind. The magnitude of the spatial-temporal variability of wind therefore resulted in variable evaporation rates over the landscape. These variations may contribute to uneven crop development patterns observed during the late growth stages of the agricultural crops at the study location. Use of hill-slope location indexes and appropriate methods for estimating actual evaporation support development of methodologies to better define topography-driven heterogeneity in evaporation. The cumulative effects of spatially-variable climatic factors on evaporation are important to quantify the localized water balance and inform precision farming practices.

Assessing Perceptions of Climate Variability and Change among ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... data with the subjective recall and memory of change in climate from respondents. ... Also that rainfall data presented in this study represent a broad picture for the ... Key Words: Seasonality, rainfall pattern fluctuations, subsistence farmers, ...

Earthworm responses to Cd and Cu under fluctuating environmental conditions: a comparison with results from laboratory exposures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spurgeon, David J.; Svendsen, Claus; Lister, Lindsay J.; Hankard, Peter K.; Kille, Peter

2005-01-01

Laboratory toxicity tests are usually conducted under stable ambient conditions, while exposures in ecosystems occur in a fluctuating climate. To assess how climate influences the toxicity of Cu and Cd for the earthworm Lumbricus rubellus, this study compared effects for life-cycle parameters (survival, reproduction), cellular status (lysosomal membrane stability), gene expression (transcript of the metal binding protein metallothionein-2) and tissue metal concentration measured under outdoor conditions, with the same responses under constant conditions as measured by Spurgeon et al. [Spurgeon, D.J., Svendsen, C., Weeks, J.M., Hankard, P.K., Stubberud, H.E., Kammenga, J.E., 2003. Quantifying copper and cadmium impacts on intrinsic rate of population increase in the terrestrial oligochaete Lumbricus rubellus. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry 22, 1465-1472]. Both metals were found to significantly influence earthworm reproduction, compromise lysosomal membrane stability and induce MT-2 gene expression in the outdoor system. Comparison with physiological and life-cycle responses in the laboratory indicated similar response patterns and effect concentrations for Cu. For Cd, lysosomal membrane stability and MT-2expression showed comparable responses in both exposures. Juvenile production rate, however, gave different dose response relationships, with the EC- 50 in the outdoor test approximately half that in the laboratory test. A difference in Cd accumulation was also seen. Overall, however, the comparison indicated only a marginal effect of environmental fluctuations typical for northern temperate Europe on earthworm sensitivity to the two metals. - Comparative analysis of life-cycle, physiological and molecular responses to Cu and Cd indicate similar responses under static and fluctuating climate regimes

Statistical fluctuations in reactors (1960); Fluctuations statistiques dans les piles (1960)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Raievski, V [Commissariat a l' Energie Atomique, Saclay (France).Centre d' Etudes Nucleaires

1960-07-01

The theory of space dependent fluctuations is developed, taking into account the effect of delayed neutrons. The 'diffusion equation' or Fokker-Planck equation is worked out in the case of age and two group theory, but the first one because of in physical significance is used in this report. The theory is applied to the study of the spectral density of fluctuations and fluctuations of counting rate and current flowing through the charge resistor of an ionisation chamber, the effect of the entrance capacity is discussed. The space dependent theory shows that the fluctuations in the core and reflector of a near critical pile obey to the same law. The spectral densities in the core and reflector are similar, there is no sensible attenuation of high frequency fluctuations in the reflector. Compared to the space independent theory, this theory give better agreement with experience, one can use the simple space independent theory but in checking with experiment it is necessary to introduce numerical factors given by the space dependent theory. (author) [French] La theorie des fluctuations statistiques est developpee dans le cas spatial en tenant compte des neutrons retardes, et dans le cadre de la theorie de l'age vitesse. L'equation d'evolution de la probabilite est egalement etablie dans le cadre de la theorie a deux groupes. Ces considerations sont appliquees a l'etude de la densite spectrale des fluctuations et aux fluctuations des taux de comptage et du courant circulant dans la resistance de charge du detecteur. On etudie en particulier l'effet de la constante de temps introduite par la capacite d'entree. Cette theorie etablit que les fluctuations dans le coeur et le reflecteur suivent la meme loi pour une pile critique, il en est de meme pour la densite spectrale meme a frequence elevee. Par rapport a la theorie d'ensemble, la theorie spatiale donne des coefficients numeriques ou facteurs de forme, qui permettent d'obtenir un bon accord entre la theorie et l

Intermittent electron density and temperature fluctuations and associated fluxes in the Alcator C-Mod scrape-off layer

Science.gov (United States)

Kube, R.; Garcia, O. E.; Theodorsen, A.; Brunner, D.; Kuang, A. Q.; LaBombard, B.; Terry, J. L.

2018-06-01

The Alcator C-Mod mirror Langmuir probe system has been used to sample data time series of fluctuating plasma parameters in the outboard mid-plane far scrape-off layer. We present a statistical analysis of one second long time series of electron density, temperature, radial electric drift velocity and the corresponding particle and electron heat fluxes. These are sampled during stationary plasma conditions in an ohmically heated, lower single null diverted discharge. The electron density and temperature are strongly correlated and feature fluctuation statistics similar to the ion saturation current. Both electron density and temperature time series are dominated by intermittent, large-amplitude burst with an exponential distribution of both burst amplitudes and waiting times between them. The characteristic time scale of the large-amplitude bursts is approximately 15 μ {{s}}. Large-amplitude velocity fluctuations feature a slightly faster characteristic time scale and appear at a faster rate than electron density and temperature fluctuations. Describing these time series as a superposition of uncorrelated exponential pulses, we find that probability distribution functions, power spectral densities as well as auto-correlation functions of the data time series agree well with predictions from the stochastic model. The electron particle and heat fluxes present large-amplitude fluctuations. For this low-density plasma, the radial electron heat flux is dominated by convection, that is, correlations of fluctuations in the electron density and radial velocity. Hot and dense blobs contribute only a minute fraction of the total fluctuation driven heat flux.

Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

2015-04-01

Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dixit, Prakash N.; Telleria, Roberto

2015-01-01

Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

Linking wood anatomy and xylogenesis allows pinpointing of climate and drought influences on growth of coexisting conifers in continental Mediterranean climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco

2016-04-01

Forecasted warmer and drier conditions will probably lead to reduced growth rates and decreased carbon fixation in long-term woody pools in drought-prone areas. We therefore need a better understanding of how climate stressors such as drought constrain wood formation and drive changes in wood anatomy. Drying trends could lead to reduced growth if they are more intense in spring, when radial growth rates of conifers in continental Mediterranean climates peak. Since tree species from the aforementioned areas have to endure dry summers and also cold winters, we chose two coexisting species: Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensisMill., Pinaceae) and Spanish juniper (Juniperus thuriferaL., Cupressaceae) (10 randomly selected trees per species), to analyze how growth (tree-ring width) and wood-anatomical traits (lumen transversal area, cell-wall thickness, presence of intra-annual density fluctuations-IADFs-in the latewood) responded to climatic variables (minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation, soil moisture deficit) calculated for different time intervals. Tree-ring width and mean lumen area showed similar year-to-year variability, which indicates that they encoded similar climatic signals. Wet and cool late-winter to early-spring conditions increased lumen area expansion, particularly in pine. In juniper, cell-wall thickness increased when early summer conditions became drier and the frequency of latewood IADFs increased in parallel with late-summer to early-autumn wet conditions. Thus, latewood IADFs of the juniper capture increased water availability during the late growing season, which is reflected in larger tracheid lumens. Soil water availability was one of the main drivers of wood formation and radial growth for the two species. These analyses allow long-term (several decades) growth and wood-anatomical responses to climate to be inferred at intra-annual scales, which agree with the growing patterns already described by xylogenesis approaches for the same

Simulating Climate Change in Ireland

Science.gov (United States)

Nolan, P.; Lynch, P.

2012-04-01

At the Meteorology & Climate Centre at University College Dublin, we are using the CLM-Community's COSMO-CLM Regional Climate Model (RCM) and the WRF RCM (developed at NCAR) to simulate the climate of Ireland at high spatial resolution. To address the issue of model uncertainty, a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) approach is used. The ensemble method uses different RCMs, driven by several Global Climate Models (GCMs), to simulate climate change. Through the MME approach, the uncertainty in the RCM projections is quantified, enabling us to estimate the probability density function of predicted changes, and providing a measure of confidence in the predictions. The RCMs were validated by performing a 20-year simulation of the Irish climate (1981-2000), driven by ECMWF ERA-40 global re-analysis data, and comparing the output to observations. Results confirm that the output of the RCMs exhibit reasonable and realistic features as documented in the historical data record. Projections for the future Irish climate were generated by downscaling the Max Planck Institute's ECHAM5 GCM, the UK Met Office HadGEM2-ES GCM and the CGCM3.1 GCM from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling. Simulations were run for a reference period 1961-2000 and future period 2021-2060. The future climate was simulated using the A1B, A2, B1, RCP 4.5 & RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Results for the downscaled simulations show a substantial overall increase in precipitation and wind speed for the future winter months and a decrease during the summer months. The predicted annual change in temperature is approximately 1.1°C over Ireland. To date, all RCM projections are in general agreement, thus increasing our confidence in the robustness of the results.

Climate and vegetational regime shifts in the late Paleozoic ice age earth.

Science.gov (United States)

DiMichele, W A; Montañez, I P; Poulsen, C J; Tabor, N J

2009-03-01

The late Paleozoic earth experienced alternation between glacial and non-glacial climates at multiple temporal scales, accompanied by atmospheric CO2 fluctuations and global warming intervals, often attended by significant vegetational changes in equatorial latitudes of Pangaea. We assess the nature of climate-vegetation interaction during two time intervals: middle-late Pennsylvanian transition and Pennsylvanian-Permian transition, each marked by tropical warming and drying. In case study 1, there is a catastrophic intra-biomic reorganization of dominance and diversity in wetland, evergreen vegetation growing under humid climates. This represents a threshold-type change, possibly a regime shift to an alternative stable state. Case study 2 is an inter-biome dominance change in western and central Pangaea from humid wetland and seasonally dry to semi-arid vegetation. Shifts between these vegetation types had been occurring in Euramerican portions of the equatorial region throughout the late middle and late Pennsylvanian, the drier vegetation reaching persistent dominance by Early Permian. The oscillatory transition between humid and seasonally dry vegetation appears to demonstrate a threshold-like behavior but probably not repeated transitions between alternative stable states. Rather, changes in dominance in lowland equatorial regions were driven by long-term, repetitive climatic oscillations, occurring with increasing intensity, within overall shift to seasonal dryness through time. In neither case study are there clear biotic or abiotic warning signs of looming changes in vegetational composition or geographic distribution, nor is it clear that there are specific, absolute values or rates of environmental change in temperature, rainfall distribution and amount, or atmospheric composition, approach to which might indicate proximity to a terrestrial biotic-change threshold.

Interannual to multidecadal climate forcings on groundwater resources of the U.S. West Coast

Science.gov (United States)

Velasco, Elzie M.; Gurdak, Jason J.; Dickinson, Jesse; Ferré, T.P.A.; Corona, Claudia

2017-01-01

Study regionThe U.S. West Coast, including the Pacific Northwest and California Coastal Basins aquifer systems.Study focusGroundwater response to interannual to multidecadal climate variability has important implications for security within the water–energy–food nexus. Here we use Singular Spectrum Analysis to quantify the teleconnections between AMO, PDO, ENSO, and PNA and precipitation and groundwater level fluctuations. The computer program DAMP was used to provide insight on the influence of soil texture, depth to water, and mean and period of a surface infiltration flux on the damping of climate signals in the vadose zone.New hydrological insights for the regionWe find that PDO, ENSO, and PNA have significant influence on precipitation and groundwater fluctuations across a north-south gradient of the West Coast, but the lower frequency climate modes (PDO) have a greater influence on hydrologic patterns than higher frequency climate modes (ENSO and PNA). Low frequency signals tend to be preserved better in groundwater fluctuations than high frequency signals, which is a function of the degree of damping of surface variable fluxes related to soil texture, depth to water, mean and period of the infiltration flux. The teleconnection patterns that exist in surface hydrologic processes are not necessarily the same as those preserved in subsurface processes, which are affected by damping of some climate variability signals within infiltrating water.

Seasonality in cholera dynamics: A rainfall-driven model explains the wide range of patterns in endemic areas

Science.gov (United States)

Baracchini, Theo; King, Aaron A.; Bouma, Menno J.; Rodó, Xavier; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Pascual, Mercedes

2017-10-01

Seasonal patterns in cholera dynamics exhibit pronounced variability across geographical regions, showing single or multiple peaks at different times of the year. Although multiple hypotheses related to local climate variables have been proposed, an understanding of this seasonal variation remains incomplete. The historical Bengal region, which encompasses the full range of cholera's seasonality observed worldwide, provides a unique opportunity to gain insights on underlying environmental drivers. Here, we propose a mechanistic, rainfall-temperature driven, stochastic epidemiological model which explicitly accounts for the fluctuations of the aquatic reservoir, and analyze with this model the historical dataset of cholera mortality in the Bengal region. Parameters are inferred with a recently developed sequential Monte Carlo method for likelihood maximization in partially observed Markov processes. Results indicate that the hydrological regime is a major driver of the seasonal dynamics of cholera. Rainfall tends to buffer the propagation of the disease in wet regions due to the longer residence times of water in the environment and an associated dilution effect, whereas it enhances cholera resurgence in dry regions. Moreover, the dynamics of the environmental water reservoir determine whether the seasonality is unimodal or bimodal, as well as its phase relative to the monsoon. Thus, the full range of seasonal patterns can be explained based solely on the local variation of rainfall and temperature. Given the close connection between cholera seasonality and environmental conditions, a deeper understanding of the underlying mechanisms would allow the better management and planning of public health policies with respect to climate variability and climate change.

Changes in potential habitat of 147 North American breeding bird species in response to redistribution of trees and climate following predicted climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters

2011-01-01

Mounting evidence shows that organisms have already begun to respond to global climate change. Advances in our knowledge of how climate shapes species distributional patterns has helped us better understand the response of birds to climate change. However, the distribution of birds across the landscape is also driven by biotic and abiotic components, including habitat...

Glacial ocean circulation and stratification explained by reduced atmospheric temperature

OpenAIRE

Jansen, Malte F.

2016-01-01

To understand climatic swings between glacial and interglacial climates we need to explain the observed fluctuations in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which in turn are most likely driven by changes in the deep ocean circulation. This study presents a model for differences in the deep ocean circulation between glacial and interglacial climates consistent with both our physical understanding and various proxy observations. The results suggest that observed changes in ocean circulation and s...

Development assistance and climate finance

OpenAIRE

Arndt, Channing

2015-01-01

The distinction between development assistance and climate finance is driven by an optic of compensation largely derived from the 'polluter pays' principle. For practical as well as conceptual reasons, this principle provides a weak basis for climate finance. The distinction also cuts against the need to holistically consider developmental, adaptation, and mitigation policies and naturally focuses on government-to-government flows despite the manifest need to catalyse non-official sources of ...

Impacts of climate change on fisheries

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brander, Keith

2010-01-01

Evidence of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems is accumulating, but must be evaluated in the context of the "normal" climate cycles and variability which have caused fluctuations in fisheries throughout human history. The impacts on fisheries are due to a variety...... experimentally and in controlled conditions. Indirect effects act via ecosystem processes and changes in the production of food or abundance of competitors, predators and pathogens. Recent studies of the effects of climate on primary production are reviewed and the consequences for fisheries production...... are evaluated through regional examples. Regional examples are also used to show changes in distribution and phenology of plankton and fish, which are attributed to climate. The role of discontinuous and extreme events (regime shifts, exceptional warm periods) is discussed. Changes in fish population processes...

Carboniferous climate teleconnections archived in coupled bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records from the epicontinental Donets Basin, Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Montanez, Isabel P.; Osleger, Dillon J.; Chen, J.-H.; Wortham, Barbara E.; Stamm, Robert G.; Nemyrovska, Tamara I.; Griffin, Julie M.; Poletaev, Vladislav I.; Wardlaw, Bruce R.

2018-01-01

Reconstructions of paleo-seawater chemistry are largely inferred from biogenic records of epicontinental seas. Recent studies provide considerable evidence for large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the environmental dynamics of these semi-restricted seas that leads to the decoupling of epicontinental isotopic records from those of the open ocean. We present conodont apatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records spanning 24 Myr of the late Mississippian through Pennsylvanian derived from the U–Pb calibrated cyclothemic succession of the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine. On a 2 to 6 Myr-scale, systematic fluctuations in bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr broadly follow major shifts in the Donets onlap–offlap history and inferred regional climate, but are distinct from contemporaneous more open-water δ18OPO4 and global seawater Sr isotope trends. A −1 to −6‰ offset in Donets δ18OPO4 values from those of more open-water conodonts and greater temporal variability in δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records are interpreted to primarily record climatically driven changes in local environmental processes in the Donets sea. Systematic isotopic shifts associated with Myr-scale sea-level fluctuations, however, indicate an extrabasinal driver. We propose a mechanistic link to glacioeustasy through a teleconnection between high-latitude ice changes and atmospheric pCO2 and regional monsoonal circulation in the Donets region. Inferred large-magnitude changes in Donets seawater salinity and temperature, not archived in the more open-water or global contemporaneous records, indicate a modification of the global climate signal in the epicontinental sea through amplification or dampening of the climate signal by local and regional environmental processes. This finding of global climate change filtered through local processes has implications for the use of conodont δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr values as proxies of paleo-seawater composition, mean temperature, and glacioeustasy.

Carboniferous climate teleconnections archived in coupled bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records from the epicontinental Donets Basin, Ukraine

Science.gov (United States)

Montañez, Isabel P.; Osleger, Dillon J.; Chen, Jitao; Wortham, Barbara E.; Stamm, Robert G.; Nemyrovska, Tamara I.; Griffin, Julie M.; Poletaev, Vladislav I.; Wardlaw, Bruce R.

2018-06-01

Reconstructions of paleo-seawater chemistry are largely inferred from biogenic records of epicontinental seas. Recent studies provide considerable evidence for large-scale spatial and temporal variability in the environmental dynamics of these semi-restricted seas that leads to the decoupling of epicontinental isotopic records from those of the open ocean. We present conodont apatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records spanning 24 Myr of the late Mississippian through Pennsylvanian derived from the U-Pb calibrated cyclothemic succession of the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine. On a 2 to 6 Myr-scale, systematic fluctuations in bioapatite δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr broadly follow major shifts in the Donets onlap-offlap history and inferred regional climate, but are distinct from contemporaneous more open-water δ18OPO4 and global seawater Sr isotope trends. A -1 to -6‰ offset in Donets δ18OPO4 values from those of more open-water conodonts and greater temporal variability in δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr records are interpreted to primarily record climatically driven changes in local environmental processes in the Donets sea. Systematic isotopic shifts associated with Myr-scale sea-level fluctuations, however, indicate an extrabasinal driver. We propose a mechanistic link to glacioeustasy through a teleconnection between high-latitude ice changes and atmospheric pCO2 and regional monsoonal circulation in the Donets region. Inferred large-magnitude changes in Donets seawater salinity and temperature, not archived in the more open-water or global contemporaneous records, indicate a modification of the global climate signal in the epicontinental sea through amplification or dampening of the climate signal by local and regional environmental processes. This finding of global climate change filtered through local processes has implications for the use of conodont δ18OPO4 and 87Sr/86Sr values as proxies of paleo-seawater composition, mean temperature, and glacioeustasy.

Vegetation-mediated Climate Impacts on Historical and Future Ozone Air Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Tai, A. P. K.; Fu, Y.; Mickley, L. J.; Heald, C. L.; Wu, S.

2014-12-01

Changes in climate, natural vegetation and human land use are expected to significantly influence air quality in the coming century. These changes and their interactions have important ramifications for the effectiveness of air pollution control strategies. In a series of studies, we use a one-way coupled modeling framework (GEOS-Chem driven by different combinations of historical and future meteorological, land cover and emission data) to investigate the effects of climate-vegetation changes on global and East Asian ozone air quality from 30 years ago to 40 years into the future. We find that future climate and climate-driven vegetation changes combine to increase summertime ozone by 2-6 ppbv in populous regions of the US, Europe, East Asia and South Asia by year 2050, but including the interaction between CO2 and biogenic isoprene emission reduces the climate impacts by more than half. Land use change such as cropland expansion has the potential to either mostly offset the climate-driven ozone increases (e.g., in the US and Europe), or greatly increase ozone (e.g., in Southeast Asia). The projected climate-vegetation effects in East Asia are particularly uncertain, reflecting a less understood ozone production regime. We thus further study how East Asian ozone air quality has evolved since the early 1980s in response to climate, vegetation and emission changes to shed light on its likely future course. We find that warming alone has led to a substantial increase in summertime ozone in populous regions by 1-4 ppbv. Despite significant cropland expansion and urbanization, increased summertime leafiness of vegetation in response to warming and CO2 fertilization has reduced ozone by 1-2 ppbv, driven by enhanced ozone deposition dominating over elevated biogenic emission and partially offsetting the warming effect. The historical role of CO2-isoprene interaction in East Asia, however, remains highly uncertain. Our findings demonstrate the important roles of land cover

Long-term trends of phosphorus concentrations in an artificial lake: Socio-economic and climate drivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vystavna, Yuliya; Hejzlar, Josef; Kopáček, Jiří

2017-01-01

European freshwater ecosystems have undergone significant human-induced and environmentally-driven variations in nutrient export from catchments throughout the past five decades, mainly in connection with changes in land-use, agricultural practice, waste water production and treatment, and climatic conditions. We analysed the relations among concentration of total phosphorus (TP) in the Slapy Reservoir (a middle reservoir of the Vltava River Cascade, Czechia), and socio-economic and climatic factors from 1963 to 2015. The study was based on a time series analysis, using conventional statistical tools, and the identification of breaking points, using a segmented regression. Results indicated clear long-term trends and seasonal patterns of TP, with annual average TP increasing up until 1991 and decreasing from 1992 to 2015. Trends in annual, winter and spring average TP concentrations reflected a shift in development of sewerage and sanitary infrastructure, agricultural application of fertilizers, and livestock production in the early 1990s that was associated with changes from the planned to the market economy. No trends were observed for average TP in autumn. The summer average TP has fluctuated with increased amplitude since 1991 in connection with recent climate warming, changes in thermal stratification stability, increased water flow irregularities, and short-circuiting of TP-rich inflow during high flow events. The climate-change-induced processes confound the generally declining trend in lake-water TP concentration and can result in eutrophication despite decreased phosphorus loads from the catchment. Our findings indicate the need of further reduction of phosphorus sources to meet ecological quality standards of the EU Water Framework Directive because the climate change may lead to a greater susceptibility of the aquatic ecosystem to the supply of nutrients.

Fluctuation-driven flocking movement in three dimensions and scale-free correlation.

Science.gov (United States)

Niizato, Takayuki; Gunji, Yukio-Pegio

2012-01-01

Recent advances in the study of flocking behavior have permitted more sophisticated analyses than previously possible. The concepts of "topological distances" and "scale-free correlations" are important developments that have contributed to this improvement. These concepts require us to reconsider the notion of a neighborhood when applied to theoretical models. Previous work has assumed that individuals interact with neighbors within a certain radius (called the "metric distance"). However, other work has shown that, assuming topological interactions, starlings interact on average with the six or seven nearest neighbors within a flock. Accounting for this observation, we previously proposed a metric-topological interaction model in two dimensions. The goal of our model was to unite these two interaction components, the metric distance and the topological distance, into one rule. In our previous study, we demonstrated that the metric-topological interaction model could explain a real bird flocking phenomenon called scale-free correlation, which was first reported by Cavagna et al. In this study, we extended our model to three dimensions while also accounting for variations in speed. This three-dimensional metric-topological interaction model displayed scale-free correlation for velocity and orientation. Finally, we introduced an additional new feature of the model, namely, that a flock can store and release its fluctuations.

Fluctuation-driven flocking movement in three dimensions and scale-free correlation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takayuki Niizato

Full Text Available Recent advances in the study of flocking behavior have permitted more sophisticated analyses than previously possible. The concepts of "topological distances" and "scale-free correlations" are important developments that have contributed to this improvement. These concepts require us to reconsider the notion of a neighborhood when applied to theoretical models. Previous work has assumed that individuals interact with neighbors within a certain radius (called the "metric distance". However, other work has shown that, assuming topological interactions, starlings interact on average with the six or seven nearest neighbors within a flock. Accounting for this observation, we previously proposed a metric-topological interaction model in two dimensions. The goal of our model was to unite these two interaction components, the metric distance and the topological distance, into one rule. In our previous study, we demonstrated that the metric-topological interaction model could explain a real bird flocking phenomenon called scale-free correlation, which was first reported by Cavagna et al. In this study, we extended our model to three dimensions while also accounting for variations in speed. This three-dimensional metric-topological interaction model displayed scale-free correlation for velocity and orientation. Finally, we introduced an additional new feature of the model, namely, that a flock can store and release its fluctuations.

Holocene lake-level fluctuations of Lake Aricota, Southern Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Placzek, C.; Quade, Jay; Betancourt, J.L.

2001-01-01

Lacustrine deposits exposed around Lake Aricota, Peru (17?? 22???S), a 7.5-km2 lake dammed by debris flows, provide a middle to late Holocene record of lake-level fluctuations. Chronological context for shoreline deposits was obtained from radiocarbon dating of vascular plant remains and other datable material with minimal 14C reservoir effects (Titicaca (16?? S), which is only 130 km to the northeast and shares a similar climatology. Comparisons with other marine and terrestrial records highlight emerging contradictions over the nature of mid-Holocene climate in the central Andes. ?? 2001 University of Washington.

Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

2017-12-01

Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

Mediterranean climate and some tropical teleconnections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alpert, P.; Price, C.; Krichak, S.; Saaroni, H.; Osetinsky, I.; Barkan, J.; Kishcha, P.; Ziv, B.

2006-01-01

Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems, e.g., El Ni no Southern Oscillation, South Asian Monsoon and hurricanes. Modelling of the severe floods suggests a relation to tropical hurricanes. For a specific event, high-resolution modelling of the severe flood on December 3-5, 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the Eastern Mediterranean climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the South Asian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors, like the Red Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust, also contribute to the Mediterranean climate variability

A new interferometry-based electron density fluctuation diagnostic on Alcator C-Moda)

Science.gov (United States)

Kasten, C. P.; Irby, J. H.; Murray, R.; White, A. E.; Pace, D. C.

2012-10-01

The two-color interferometry diagnostic on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak has been upgraded to measure fluctuations in the electron density and density gradient for turbulence and transport studies. Diagnostic features and capabilities are described. In differential mode, fast phase demodulation electronics detect the relative phase change between ten adjacent, radially-separated (ΔR = 1.2 cm, adjustable), vertical-viewing chords, which allows for measurement of the line-integrated electron density gradient. The system can be configured to detect the absolute phase shift of each chord by comparison to a local oscillator, measuring the line-integrated density. Each chord is sensitive to density fluctuations with kR < 20.3 cm-1 and is digitized at up to 10 MS/s, resolving aspects of ion temperature gradient-driven modes and other long-wavelength turbulence. Data from C-Mod discharges is presented, including observations of the quasi-coherent mode in enhanced D-alpha H-mode plasmas and the weakly coherent mode in I-mode.

Salt Marshes as Potential Indicatore of Global Climate Change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kim, Daehyun; Cairens, David; Jung, S.H.

2011-01-01

Coastal scientists postulate that salt marshes are significantly affected by dynamics of global climate. However, few studies have explicitly proposed a perspective that regards salt marshes as potential indicators of climate change. This review article evaluates the possibility of salt marshes...... as indicators of global climate change, focusing upon three major aspects: sedimentary, vegetation, and biogeochemical dynamics. The previous literature concerned with these aspects commonly argues that the primary impact of climate change on salt marshes occurs via sea-level variations, because hydrologic...... fluctuations regulate the frequency, duration, and depth of over-marsh flooding events. Sedimentary, floristic, and biogeochemical dynamics prove to be significantly influenced by sealevel changes regardless of climate zones, and hence, undoubtedly possess a potential for indicating climate signatures. However...

Reduced equations of motion for quantum systems driven by diffusive Markov processes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarovar, Mohan; Grace, Matthew D

2012-09-28

The expansion of a stochastic Liouville equation for the coupled evolution of a quantum system and an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process into a hierarchy of coupled differential equations is a useful technique that simplifies the simulation of stochastically driven quantum systems. We expand the applicability of this technique by completely characterizing the class of diffusive Markov processes for which a useful hierarchy of equations can be derived. The expansion of this technique enables the examination of quantum systems driven by non-Gaussian stochastic processes with bounded range. We present an application of this extended technique by simulating Stark-tuned Förster resonance transfer in Rydberg atoms with nonperturbative position fluctuations.

Onset of current-driven turbulence on application of a low toroidal electric field

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Yukio; Watanabe, Takechiyo; Nagao, Akihiro; Nakamura, Kazuo; Hiraki, Naoji; Itoh, Satoshi

1982-01-01

The critical condition for current-driven instability excited in a turbulently-heated TRIAM-1 tokamak plasma is investigated experimentally. A resistive hump in the loop voltage, plasma density fluctuation and rapid increase in electron temperature in the skin layer are simultaneously observed when the electron drift velocity equals the critical drift velocity for low-frequency ion acoustic instability. (author)

Onset of current-driven turbulence on application of a low toroidal electric field

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakamura, Yukio; Watanabe, Takechiyo; Nagao, Akihiro; Nakamura, Kazuo; Hiraki, Naoji; Itoh, Satoshi [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics

1982-06-01

The critical condition for current-driven instability excited in a turbulently-heated TRIAM-1 tokamak plasma is investigated experimentally. A resistive hump in the loop voltage, plasma density fluctuation and rapid increase in electron temperature in the skin layer are simultaneously observed when the electron drift velocity equals the critical drift velocity for low-frequency ion acoustic instability.

Influence of temperature fluctuations on equilibrium ice sheet volume

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

T. B. Mikkelsen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Forecasting the future sea level relies on accurate modeling of the response of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to changing temperatures. The surface mass balance (SMB of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS has a nonlinear response to warming. Cold and warm anomalies of equal size do not cancel out and it is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual fluctuations in temperature. We find that the steady-state volume of an ice sheet is biased toward larger size if interannual temperature fluctuations are not taken into account in numerical modeling of the ice sheet. We illustrate this in a simple ice sheet model and find that the equilibrium ice volume is approximately 1 m SLE (meters sea level equivalent smaller when the simple model is forced with fluctuating temperatures as opposed to a stable climate. It is therefore important to consider the effect of interannual temperature fluctuations when designing long experiments such as paleo-spin-ups. We show how the magnitude of the potential bias can be quantified statistically. For recent simulations of the Greenland Ice Sheet, we estimate the bias to be 30 Gt yr−1 (24–59 Gt yr−1, 95 % credibility for a warming of 3 °C above preindustrial values, or 13 % (10–25, 95 % credibility of the present-day rate of ice loss. Models of the Greenland Ice Sheet show a collapse threshold beyond which the ice sheet becomes unsustainable. The proximity of the threshold will be underestimated if temperature fluctuations are not taken into account. We estimate the bias to be 0.12 °C (0.10–0.18 °C, 95 % credibility for a recent estimate of the threshold. In light of our findings it is important to gauge the extent to which this increased variability will influence the mass balance of the ice sheets.

An overview of climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Masson-Delmotte, V.; Paillard, D.

2004-01-01

We describe briefly here the main mechanisms and time scales involved in natural and anthropogenic climate variability, based on quantitative paleo-climatic reconstructions from natural archives and climate model simulations: the large glacial-interglacial cycles of the last million years (the Quaternary), lasting typically a hundred thousand years, triggered by changes in the solar radiation received by the Earth due to its position around the Sun; the century-long climatic changes occurring during last glacial period and triggered by recurrent iceberg discharges of the large northern hemisphere ice caps, massive freshwater flux to the north Atlantic, and changes in the ocean heat transport. We show the strong coupling between past climatic changes and global biogeochemical cycles, namely here atmospheric greenhouse gases. We also discuss the decadal climatic fluctuations during the last thousand years, showing an unprecedented warming attributed to the anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. We show the range of atmospheric greenhouse concentrations forecasted for the end of the 21. century and the climate model predictions for global temperature changes during the 21. century. We also discuss the possible climatic changes at longer time scales involving the possibility of north Atlantic heat transport collapse (possibility of abrupt climate change), and the duration of the current interglacial period. (author)

Fluctuations and structure of amphiphilic films; Fluctuations et structure de films d`amphiphiles

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gourier, CH

1996-07-01

This thesis is divided in three parts.The first part exposes in a theoretical point of view, how the fluctuations spectrum of an amphiphilic film is governed by its properties and its bidimensional characteristics.The measurements of fluctuations spectra of an interface are accessible with the measurement of intensity that interface diffuses out of the specular angle, we present in the second chapter the principles of the X rays diffusion by a real interface and see how the diffuse diffusion experiments allow to determine the fluctuations spectrum of an amphiphilic film. The second part is devoted to the different experimental techniques that have allowed to realize the study of fluctuation as well as the structural study.The third part is devoted to experimental results concerning the measurements of fluctuations spectra and to the study of the structure of amphiphilic films. We show that it is possible by using an intense source of X rays (ESRF: European Synchrotron Radiation Facility) to measure the water and amphiphilic films fluctuations spectra until molecular scales. The last chapter is devoted to the structural study and film fluctuations made of di-acetylenic molecules. (N.C.)

Recent results of studies of plasma fluctuations in stellarators by microwave scattering technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skvortsova, N.N.; Batanov, G.M.; Kolik, L.V.; Petrov, A.E.; Pshenichnikov, A.A.; Sarksyan, K.A.; Kharchev, N.K.; Khol'nov, Yu.V.; Kubo, S.; Sanchez, J.

2005-01-01

Microwave scattering diagnostics are described that allow direct measurements of the turbulent processes in a high-temperature plasma of magnetic confinement systems. Plasma density fluctuations in the heating region of the L-2M stellarator were measured from microwave scattering at the fundamental and the second harmonics of the heating gyrotron radiation. In the TJ-II stellarator, a separate 2-mm microwave source was used to produce a probing beam; the measurements were performed at the middle of the plasma radius. Plasma density fluctuations in the axial (heating) region of the LHD stellarator were measured from microwave scattering at the fundamental harmonic of the heating gyrotron radiation. Characteristic features of fluctuations, common for all three devices, are revealed with the methods of statistical and spectral analysis. These features are the wide frequency Fourier and wavelet spectra, autocorrelation functions with slowly decreasing tails, and non-Gaussian probability distributions of the magnitudes and the increments of the magnitude of fluctuations. The drift-dissipative instability and the instability driven by trapped electrons are examined as possible sources of turbulence in a high-temperature plasma. Observations showed the high level of coherence between turbulent fluctuations in the central region and at the edge of the plasma in L-2M. It is shown in L-2M that the relative intensity of the second harmonic of gyrotron radiation on the axis of a microwave beam after quasi-optical filtering in a four-mirror quasi-optical transmission line is about -50 dB of the total radiation intensity. Spatiotemporal structures in plasma density fluctuations were observed in the central region of the plasma column. The correlation time between the structures was found to be on the order of 1 ms. It is shown that, the spectrum of the signal from the second-harmonic scattering extends to higher frequencies in comparison with that from the fundamental

Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

Science.gov (United States)

Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

2017-12-01

Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia

Influence of thermal fluctuations on ligament break-up: a fluctuating lattice Boltzmann study

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Xiao; Biferale, Luca; Sbragaglia, Mauro; Toschi, Federico

2017-11-01

Thermal fluctuations are essential ingredients in a nanoscale system, driving Brownian motion of particles and capillary waves at non-ideal interfaces. Here we study the influence of thermal fluctuations on the breakup of liquid ligaments at the nanoscale. We offer quantitative characterization of the effects of thermal fluctuations on the Plateau-Rayleigh mechanism that drives the breakup process of ligaments. Due to thermal fluctuations, the droplet sizes after break-up need to be analyzed in terms of their distribution over an ensemble made of repeated experiments. To this aim, we make use of numerical simulations based on the fluctuating lattice Boltzmann method (FLBM) for multicomponent mixtures. The method allows an accurate and efficient simulation of the fluctuating hydrodynamics equations of a binary mixture, where both stochastic viscous stresses and diffusion fluxes are introduced. This project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie Grant Agreement No 642069.

Resistance and resistance fluctuations in random resistor networks under biased percolation.

Science.gov (United States)

Pennetta, Cecilia; Reggiani, L; Trefán, Gy; Alfinito, E

2002-06-01

We consider a two-dimensional random resistor network (RRN) in the presence of two competing biased processes consisting of the breaking and recovering of elementary resistors. These two processes are driven by the joint effects of an electrical bias and of the heat exchange with a thermal bath. The electrical bias is set up by applying a constant voltage or, alternatively, a constant current. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to analyze the network evolution in the full range of bias values. Depending on the bias strength, electrical failure or steady state are achieved. Here we investigate the steady state of the RRN focusing on the properties of the non-Ohmic regime. In constant-voltage conditions, a scaling relation is found between /(0) and V/V(0), where is the average network resistance, (0) the linear regime resistance, and V0 the threshold value for the onset of nonlinearity. A similar relation is found in constant-current conditions. The relative variance of resistance fluctuations also exhibits a strong nonlinearity whose properties are investigated. The power spectral density of resistance fluctuations presents a Lorentzian spectrum and the amplitude of fluctuations shows a significant non-Gaussian behavior in the prebreakdown region. These results compare well with electrical breakdown measurements in thin films of composites and of other conducting materials.

Genetic signatures of variation in population size in a native fungal pathogen after the recent intensive plantation of its host tree

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Labbé, Frédéric; Fontaine, Michael Christophe; Robin, Cécile; Dutech, Cyril

2017-01-01

Historical fluctuations in forests’ distribution driven by past climate changes and anthropogenic activities can have large impacts on the demographic history of pathogens that have a long co-evolution history with these host trees. Using a population genetic approach, we investigated that

Climatic and non-climatic drivers of spatiotemporal maize-area dynamics across the northern limit for maize production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Mette Vestergaard; Bøcher, Peder Klith; Dalgaard, Tommy

2011-01-01

It is expected that the ongoing anthropogenic climate change will drive changes in agricultural production and its geographic distribution. Here, we assess the extent to which climate change is already driving spatiotemporal dynamics in maize production in Denmark. We use advanced spatial...... regression modeling with multi-model averaging to assess the extent to which the recent spatiotemporal dynamics of the maize area in Denmark are driven by climate (temperature as represented by maize heating units [MHU] and growing-season precipitation), climate change and non-climatic factors (cattle...... cultivation and cattle farming, probably reflecting a change to a more favorable climate for maize cultivation: in the beginning of the study period, northern areas were mostly too cold for maize cultivation, irrespective of cattle density, but this limitation has been diminishing as climate has warmed...

Fluctuations of the transcription factor ATML1 generate the pattern of giant cells in the Arabidopsis sepal

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Heather M; Teles, José; Formosa-Jordan, Pau; Refahi, Yassin; San-Bento, Rita; Ingram, Gwyneth; Jönsson, Henrik; Locke, James C W; Roeder, Adrienne H K

2017-01-01

Multicellular development produces patterns of specialized cell types. Yet, it is often unclear how individual cells within a field of identical cells initiate the patterning process. Using live imaging, quantitative image analyses and modeling, we show that during Arabidopsis thaliana sepal development, fluctuations in the concentration of the transcription factor ATML1 pattern a field of identical epidermal cells to differentiate into giant cells interspersed between smaller cells. We find that ATML1 is expressed in all epidermal cells. However, its level fluctuates in each of these cells. If ATML1 levels surpass a threshold during the G2 phase of the cell cycle, the cell will likely enter a state of endoreduplication and become giant. Otherwise, the cell divides. Our results demonstrate a fluctuation-driven patterning mechanism for how cell fate decisions can be initiated through a random yet tightly regulated process. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.19131.001 PMID:28145865

Towards a climate-driven dengue decision support system for Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Cazelles, Bernard; Paul, Richard; Rodó, Xavier

2014-05-01

Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Environmental explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to

Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

Science.gov (United States)

Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

2016-01-01

Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land

The temporal spectrum of adult mosquito population fluctuations: conceptual and modeling implications.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yun Jian

Full Text Available An improved understanding of mosquito population dynamics under natural environmental forcing requires adequate field observations spanning the full range of temporal scales over which mosquito abundance fluctuates in natural conditions. Here we analyze a 9-year daily time series of uninterrupted observations of adult mosquito abundance for multiple mosquito species in North Carolina to identify characteristic scales of temporal variability, the processes generating them, and the representativeness of observations at different sampling resolutions. We focus in particular on Aedes vexans and Culiseta melanura and, using a combination of spectral analysis and modeling, we find significant population fluctuations with characteristic periodicity between 2 days and several years. Population dynamical modelling suggests that the observed fast fluctuations scales (2 days-weeks are importantly affected by a varying mosquito activity in response to rapid changes in meteorological conditions, a process neglected in most representations of mosquito population dynamics. We further suggest that the range of time scales over which adult mosquito population variability takes place can be divided into three main parts. At small time scales (indicatively 2 days-1 month observed population fluctuations are mainly driven by behavioral responses to rapid changes in weather conditions. At intermediate scales (1 to several month environmentally-forced fluctuations in generation times, mortality rates, and density dependence determine the population characteristic response times. At longer scales (annual to multi-annual mosquito populations follow seasonal and inter-annual environmental changes. We conclude that observations of adult mosquito populations should be based on a sub-weekly sampling frequency and that predictive models of mosquito abundance must include behavioral dynamics to separate the effects of a varying mosquito activity from actual changes in the

Holocene fluctuations in human population demonstrate repeated links to food production and climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Bevan, Andrew; Colledge, Sue; Fuller, Dorian; Fyfe, Ralph; Shennan, Stephen; Stevens, Chris

2017-12-05

We consider the long-term relationship between human demography, food production, and Holocene climate via an archaeological radiocarbon date series of unprecedented sampling density and detail. There is striking consistency in the inferred human population dynamics across different regions of Britain and Ireland during the middle and later Holocene. Major cross-regional population downturns in population coincide with episodes of more abrupt change in North Atlantic climate and witness societal responses in food procurement as visible in directly dated plants and animals, often with moves toward hardier cereals, increased pastoralism, and/or gathered resources. For the Neolithic, this evidence questions existing models of wholly endogenous demographic boom-bust. For the wider Holocene, it demonstrates that climate-related disruptions have been quasi-periodic drivers of societal and subsistence change. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

Costs of climate impacts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Roberts, W O

1980-03-01

The surest prospect for future world climate patterns is that they will differ from present ones. What is uncertain is how much, and exactly in what way in different geographical regions. The anthropogenic CO/sub 2/ increase will probably exceed the unknown forcing functions of natural climate change within 30 to 60 years. It is not unlikely that by AD 2040 the world's climate, driven by the CO/sub 2/ increase, will enter a domain warmer than any within the past few million years. The costs of averting this climate change or of absorbing its impact are likely to be huge, even though today imponderable. Not least among these are intangible and unquantifiable costs associated with changes in human values and the quality of everyday life for future generations.

weaving together climate science and chemistry education

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Preferred Customer

... students, educators, and the general public, designed to help bridge the gap ... Design Principles of Visualizing and Understanding the Science of Climate ... The user is also able to examine simple models for these predictions ... Figure 6 illustrates the fluctuations in mean global temperature over an 800 ka span and.

Response of the mean global vegetation distribution to interannual climate variability

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Notaro, Michael [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research, Madison, WI (United States)

2008-06-15

The impact of interannual variability in temperature and precipitation on global terrestrial ecosystems is investigated using a dynamic global vegetation model driven by gridded climate observations for the twentieth century. Contrasting simulations are driven either by repeated mean climatology or raw climate data with interannual variability included. Interannual climate variability reduces net global vegetation cover, particularly over semi-arid regions, and favors the expansion of grass cover at the expense of tree cover, due to differences in growth rates, fire impacts, and interception. The area burnt by global fires is substantially enhanced by interannual precipitation variability. The current position of the central United States' ecotone, with forests to the east and grasslands to the west, is largely attributed to climate variability. Among woody vegetation, climate variability supports expanded deciduous forest growth and diminished evergreen forest growth, due to difference in bioclimatic limits, leaf longevity, interception rates, and rooting depth. These results offer insight into future ecosystem distributions since climate models generally predict an increase in climate variability and extremes. (orig.)

Measuring past glacier fluctuations from historic photographs geolocated using Structure from Motion

Science.gov (United States)

Vargo, L.; Anderson, B.; Horgan, H. J.; Mackintosh, A.; Lorrey, A.; Thornton, M.

2017-12-01

Quantifying glacier fluctuations is important for understanding how the cryosphere responds to climate variability and change. Photographs of past ice extents have become iconic images of climate change, but until now incorporating these images into quantitative estimates of glacier change has been problematic. We present a new method to quantitatively measure past glacier fluctuations from historic images. The method uses a large set of modern geolocated photographs and Structure from Motion (SfM) to calculate the camera parameters for the historic images, including the location from which they were taken. We initially apply this method to a small maritime New Zealand glacier (Brewster Glacier, 44°S, 2 km2), and quantify annual equilibrium line altitudes (ELAs) and length changes from historic oblique aerial photographs (1981 - 2017). Results show that Brewster has retreated 364 ± 12 m since 1981 and, using independent field measurements of terminus positions (2005 - 2014), we show that this SfM-derived length record accurately captures glacier change. We calculate the uncertainties associated with this method using known coordinates of bedrock features surrounding the glacier. Mean uncertainties in the ELA and length records are 7 m and 11 m, respectively. In addition to Brewster, 49 other New Zealand glaciers have been monitored by aerial photographs since 1978. However, the length records for these glaciers only include years of relative advance or retreat, and no length changes have been quantified. We will ultimately apply this method to all 50 glaciers, expanding the database of New Zealand glacier fluctuations that until now included only a few glaciers. This method can be further applied to any glacier with historic images, and can be used to measure past changes in glacier width, area, and surface elevation in addition to ELA and length.

Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw

2011-01-01

The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how...

The role of fluctuations and interactions in pedestrian dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Corbetta, Alessandro; Meeusen, Jasper; Benzi, Roberto; Lee, Chung-Min; Toschi, Federico

Understanding quantitatively the statistical behaviour of pedestrians walking in crowds is a major scientific challenge of paramount societal relevance. Walking humans exhibit a rich (stochastic) dynamics whose small and large deviations are driven, among others, by own will as well as by environmental conditions. Via 24/7 automatic pedestrian tracking from multiple overhead Microsoft Kinect depth sensors, we collected large ensembles of pedestrian trajectories (in the order of tens of millions) in different real-life scenarios. These scenarios include both narrow corridors and large urban hallways, enabling us to cover and compare a wide spectrum of typical pedestrian dynamics. We investigate the pedestrian motion measuring the PDFs, e.g. those of position, velocity and acceleration, and at unprecedentedly high statistical resolution. We consider the dependence of PDFs on flow conditions, focusing on diluted dynamics and pair-wise interactions (''collisions'') for mutual avoidance. By means of Langevin-like models we provide models for the measured data, inclusive typical fluctuations and rare events. This work is part of the JSTP research programme ``Vision driven visitor behaviour analysis and crowd management'' with Project Number 341-10-001, which is financed by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO).

Climate change track in river floods in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. W. Kundzewicz

2015-06-01

Full Text Available A holistic perspective on changing river flood risk in Europe is provided. Economic losses from floods have increased, principally driven by the expanding exposure of assets at risk. Climate change (i.e. observed increase in precipitation intensity, decrease of snowpack and other observed climate changes might already have had an impact on floods. However, no gauge-based evidence had been found for a climate-driven, widespread change in the magnitude/frequency of floods during the last decades. There are strong regional and sub-regional variations in the trends. Moreover, it has not been generally possible to attribute rain-generated peak streamflow trends to anthropogenic climate change. Physical reasoning suggests that projected increases in the frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall would contribute to increases in rain-generated local floods, while less snowmelt flooding and earlier spring peak flows in snowmelt-fed rivers are expected. However, there is low confidence in future changes in flood magnitude and frequency resulting from climate change. The impacts of climate change on flood characteristics are highly sensitive to the detailed nature of those changes. Discussion of projections of flood hazard in Europe is offered. Attention is drawn to a considerable uncertainty - over the last decade or so, projections of flood hazard in Europe have largely changed.

Fluctuating Thermodynamics for Biological Processes

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, Sihyun

Because biomolecular processes are largely under thermodynamic control, dynamic extension of thermodynamics is necessary to uncover the mechanisms and driving factors of fluctuating processes. The fluctuating thermodynamics technology presented in this talk offers a practical means for the thermodynamic characterization of conformational dynamics in biomolecules. The use of fluctuating thermodynamics has the potential to provide a comprehensive picture of fluctuating phenomena in diverse biological processes. Through the application of fluctuating thermodynamics, we provide a thermodynamic perspective on the misfolding and aggregation of the various proteins associated with human diseases. In this talk, I will present the detailed concepts and applications of the fluctuating thermodynamics technology for elucidating biological processes. This work was supported by Samsung Science and Technology Foundation under Project Number SSTF-BA1401-13.

Climate-sensitive feedbacks between hillslope processes and fluvial erosion in sediment-driven incision models

Science.gov (United States)

Skov, Daniel S.; Egholm, David L.

2016-04-01

Surface erosion and sediment production seem to have accelerated globally as climate cooled in the Late Cenozoic, [Molnar, P. 2004, Herman et al 2013]. Glaciers emerged in many high mountain ranges during the Quaternary, and glaciation therefore represents a likely explanation for faster erosion in such places. Still, observations and measurements point to increases in erosion rates also in landscapes where erosion is driven mainly by fluvial processes [Lease and Ehlers (2013), Reusser (2004)]. Flume experiments and fieldwork have shown that rates of incision are to a large degree controlled by the sediment load of streams [e.g. Sklar and Dietrich (2001), Beer and Turowski (2015)]. This realization led to the formulation of sediment-flux dependent incision models [Sklar and Dietrich (2004)]. The sediment-flux dependence links incision in the channels to hillslope processes that supply sediment to the channels. The rates of weathering and soil transport on the hillslopes are processes that are likely to respond to changing temperatures, e.g. because of vegetation changes or the occurrence of frost. In this study, we perform computational landscape evolution experiments, where the coupling between fluvial incision and hillslope processes is accounted for by coupling a sediment-flux-dependent model for fluvial incision to a climate-dependent model for weathering and hillslope sediment transport. The computational experiments first of all demonstrate a strong positive feedback between channel and hillslope processes. In general, faster weathering leads to higher rates of channel incision, which further increases the weathering rates, mainly because of hillslope steepening. Slower weathering leads to the opposite result. The experiments also demonstrate, however, that the feedbacks vary significantly between different parts of a drainage network. For example, increasing hillslope sediment production may accelerate incision in the upper parts of the catchment, while at

Dynamic Performance of the Standalone Wind Power Driven Heat Pump

OpenAIRE

H. Li; P.E. Campana; S. Berretta; Y. Tan; J. Yan

2016-01-01

Reducing energy consumption and increasing use of renewable energyin the building sector arecrucial to the mitigation of climate change. Wind power driven heat pumps have been considered as a sustainable measure to supply heat for detached houses, especially those that even don’t have access to the grid. This work is to investigate the dynamic performance of a heat pump system directly driven by a wind turbine. The heat demand of a detached single family house was simulated in details. Accord...

Fostering Climate Resilient Electricity Infrastructures

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bollinger, L.A.

2015-01-01

Heat waves, hurricanes, floods and windstorms - recent years have seen dramatic failures in electricity infrastructures sparked by short-term departures of environmental conditions from their norms. Driven by a changing climate, such deviations are anticipated to increase in severity and/or

Molecular-dynamics study of propane-hydrate dissociation: Fluctuation-dissipation and non-equilibrium analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghaani, Mohammad Reza; English, Niall J

2018-03-21

Equilibrium and non-equilibrium molecular-dynamics (MD) simulations have been performed to investigate thermal-driven break-up of planar propane-hydrate interfaces in contact with liquid water over the 260-320 K range. Two types of hydrate-surface water-lattice molecular termination were adopted, at the hydrate edge with water, for comparison: a 001-direct surface cleavage and one with completed cages. Statistically significant differences in melting temperatures and initial break-up rates were observed between both interface types. Dissociation rates were observed to be strongly dependent on temperature, with higher rates at larger over-temperatures vis-à-vis melting. A simple coupled mass and heat transfer model, developed previously, was applied to fit the observed dissociation profiles, and this helps us to identify clearly two distinct hydrate-decomposition régimes; following a highly temperature-dependent break-up phase, a second well-defined stage is essentially independent of temperature, in which the remaining nanoscale, de facto two-dimensional system's lattice framework is intrinsically unstable. Further equilibrium MD-analysis of the two-phase systems at their melting point, with consideration of the relaxation times gleaned from the auto-correlation functions of fluctuations in a number of enclathrated guest molecules, led to statistically significant differences between the two surface-termination cases; a consistent correlation emerged in both cases between the underlying, non-equilibrium, thermal-driven dissociation rates sampled directly from melting with that from an equilibrium-MD fluctuation-dissipation approach.

Quaternary climate changes explain diversity among reptiles and amphibians

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bastos Araujo, Miguel; Nogués-Bravo, David; Diniz-Filho, Alexandre F.

2008-01-01

debated without reaching consensus. Here, we test the proposition that European species richness of reptiles and amphibians is driven by climate changes in the Quaternary. We find that climate stability between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the present day is a better predictor of species richness...

Thermodynamic theory of equilibrium fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mishin, Y.

2015-01-01

The postulational basis of classical thermodynamics has been expanded to incorporate equilibrium fluctuations. The main additional elements of the proposed thermodynamic theory are the concept of quasi-equilibrium states, a definition of non-equilibrium entropy, a fundamental equation of state in the entropy representation, and a fluctuation postulate describing the probability distribution of macroscopic parameters of an isolated system. Although these elements introduce a statistical component that does not exist in classical thermodynamics, the logical structure of the theory is different from that of statistical mechanics and represents an expanded version of thermodynamics. Based on this theory, we present a regular procedure for calculations of equilibrium fluctuations of extensive parameters, intensive parameters and densities in systems with any number of fluctuating parameters. The proposed fluctuation formalism is demonstrated by four applications: (1) derivation of the complete set of fluctuation relations for a simple fluid in three different ensembles; (2) fluctuations in finite-reservoir systems interpolating between the canonical and micro-canonical ensembles; (3) derivation of fluctuation relations for excess properties of grain boundaries in binary solid solutions, and (4) derivation of the grain boundary width distribution for pre-melted grain boundaries in alloys. The last two applications offer an efficient fluctuation-based approach to calculations of interface excess properties and extraction of the disjoining potential in pre-melted grain boundaries. Possible future extensions of the theory are outlined.

KNMI DataLab experiences in serving data-driven innovations

Science.gov (United States)

Noteboom, Jan Willem; Sluiter, Raymond

2016-04-01

Climate change research and innovations in weather forecasting rely more and more on (Big) data. Besides increasing data from traditional sources (such as observation networks, radars and satellites), the use of open data, crowd sourced data and the Internet of Things (IoT) is emerging. To deploy these sources of data optimally in our services and products, KNMI has established a DataLab to serve data-driven innovations in collaboration with public and private sector partners. Big data management, data integration, data analytics including machine learning and data visualization techniques are playing an important role in the DataLab. Cross-domain data-driven innovations that arise from public-private collaborative projects and research programmes can be explored, experimented and/or piloted by the KNMI DataLab. Furthermore, advice can be requested on (Big) data techniques and data sources. In support of collaborative (Big) data science activities, scalable environments are offered with facilities for data integration, data analysis and visualization. In addition, Data Science expertise is provided directly or from a pool of internal and external experts. At the EGU conference, gained experiences and best practices are presented in operating the KNMI DataLab to serve data-driven innovations for weather and climate applications optimally.

Superconductivity and spin fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scalapino, D.J.

1999-01-01

The organizers of the Memorial Session for Herman Rietschel asked that the author review some of the history of the interplay of superconductivity and spin fluctuations. Initially, Berk and Schrieffer showed how paramagnon spin fluctuations could suppress superconductivity in nearly-ferromagnetic materials. Following this, Rietschel and various co-workers wrote a number of papers in which they investigated the role of spin fluctuations in reducing the Tc of various electron-phonon superconductors. Paramagnon spin fluctuations are also believed to provide the p-wave pairing mechanism responsible for the superfluid phases of 3 He. More recently, antiferromagnetic spin fluctuations have been proposed as the mechanism for d-wave pairing in the heavy-fermion superconductors and in some organic materials as well as possibly the high-Tc cuprates. Here the author will review some of this early history and discuss some of the things he has learned more recently from numerical simulations

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rachel Lowe

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

Climate-driven coral reorganisation influences aggressive behaviour in juvenile coral-reef fishes

Science.gov (United States)

Kok, Judith E.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.

2016-06-01

Globally, habitat degradation is altering the abundance and diversity of species in a variety of ecosystems. This study aimed to determine how habitat degradation, in terms of changing coral composition under climate change, affected abundance, species richness and aggressive behaviour of juveniles of three damselfishes ( Pomacentrus moluccensis, P. amboinensis and Dischistodus perspicillatus, in order of decreasing reliance on coral). Patch reefs were constructed to simulate two types of reefs: present-day reefs that are vulnerable to climate-induced coral bleaching, and reefs with more bleaching-robust coral taxa, thereby simulating the likely future of coral reefs under a warming climate. Fish communities were allowed to establish naturally on the reefs during the summer recruitment period. Climate-robust reefs had lower total species richness of coral-reef fishes than climate-vulnerable reefs, but total fish abundance was not significantly different between reef types (pooled across all species and life-history stages). The nature of aggressive interactions, measured as the number of aggressive chases, varied according to coral composition; on climate-robust reefs, juveniles used the substratum less often to avoid aggression from competitors, and interspecific aggression became relatively more frequent than intraspecific aggression for juveniles of the coral-obligate P. moluccensis. This study highlights the importance of coral composition as a determinant of behaviour and diversity of coral-reef fishes.

Probability of expected climate stresses in North America in the next one My

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kukla, G.

1979-01-01

Climates one million years ahead were predicted upon the assumption that the natural climate variability during the past My will continue. Response of environment and climate in the Basin and Range province of the western USA to global fluctuations was reconstructed; the most remarkable change was the filling of closed basins with large freshwater lakes. Probabilities of permanent ice cover and floods are discussed. It is believed that a site with minimal probability of climate-related breach can be selected

Tropical-extratropical climate interaction as revealed in idealized coupled climate model experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yang, Haijun [Peking University, Department of Atmospheric Science and Laboratory for Severe Storm and Flood Disasters, School of Physics, Beijing (China); Liu, Zhengyu [University of Wisconsin-Madison, Center for Climatic Research and Department of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Madison, WI (United States)

2005-06-01

Tropical-extratropical climate interactions are studied by idealized experiments with a prescribed 2 C SST anomaly at different latitude bands in a coupled climate model. Instead of focusing on intrinsic climate variability, this work investigates the mean climate adjustment to remote external forcing. The extratropical impact on tropical climate can be as strong as the tropical impact on extratropical climate, with the remote sea surface temperature (SST) response being about half the magnitude of the imposed SST change in the forcing region. The equatorward impact of extratropical climate is accomplished by both the atmospheric bridge and the oceanic tunnel. About two-thirds of the tropical SST change comes from the atmospheric bridge, while the remaining one-third comes from the oceanic tunnel. The equatorial SST increase is first driven by the reduced latent heat flux and the weakened poleward surface Ekman transport, and then enhanced by the decrease in subtropical cells' strength and the equatorward subduction of warm anomalies. In contrast, the poleward impact of tropical climate is accomplished mainly by the atmospheric bridge, which is responsible for extratropical temperature changes in both the surface and subsurface. Sensitivity experiments also show the dominant role of the Southern Hemisphere oceans in the tropical climate change. (orig.)

Random River Fluctuations Shape the Root Profile of Riparian Plants

Science.gov (United States)

Perona, P.; Tron, S.; Gorla, L.; Schwarz, M.; Laio, F.; Ridolfi, L.

2015-12-01

Plant roots are recognized to play a key role in the riparian ecosystems: they contribute to the plant as well as to the streambank and bedforms stability, help to enhance the water quality of the river, and sustain the belowground biodiversity. The complexity of the root-system architecture recalls their remarkable ability to respond to environmental conditions, notably including soil heterogeneity, resource availability, and climate. In fluvial environments where nutrient availability is not a limiting factor for plant to grow, the root growth of phreatophytic plants is strongly influenced by water and oxygen availability in the soil. In this work, we demonstrate that the randomness of water table fluctuations, determined by streamflow stochastic variability, is likely to be the main driver for the root development strategy of riparian plants. A collection of root measurements from field and outdoor controlled experiments is used to demonstrate that the vertical root density distribution can be described by a simple analytical expression, whose parameters are linked to properties of soil, plant and water table fluctuations. This physically-based expression is able to predict riparian plant roots adaptability to different hydrological and pedologic scenarios in riverine environments. Hence, this model has great potential towards the comprehension of the effects of future climate and environmental changing conditions on plant adaptation and river ecomorphodynamic processes. Finally, we present an open access graphical user interface that we developed in order to estimate the vertical root distribution in fluvial environments and to make the model easily available to a wider scientific and professional audience.

Climate scenarios for California

Science.gov (United States)

Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

2006-01-01

Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

The interaction of neutral evolutionary processes with climatically-driven adaptive changes in the 3D shape of the human os coxae.

Science.gov (United States)

Betti, Lia; von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Manica, Andrea; Lycett, Stephen J

2014-08-01

Differences in the breadth of the pelvis among modern human populations and among extinct hominin species have often been interpreted in the light of thermoregulatory adaptation, whereby a larger pelvic girdle would help preserve body temperature in cold environments while a narrower pelvis would help dissipate heat in tropical climates. There is, however, a theoretical problem in interpreting a pattern of variation as evidence of selection without first accounting for the effects of neutral evolutionary processes (i.e., mutation, genetic drift and migration). Here, we analyse 3D configurations of 27 landmarks on the os coxae of 1494 modern human individuals representing 30 male and 23 female populations from five continents and a range of climatic conditions. We test for the effects of climate on the size and shape of the pelvic bone, while explicitly accounting for population history (i.e., geographically-mediated gene flow and genetic drift). We find that neutral processes account for a substantial proportion of shape variance in the human os coxae in both sexes. Beyond the neutral pattern due to population history, temperature is a significant predictor of shape and size variation in the os coxae, at least in males. The effect of climate on the shape of the pelvic bone, however, is comparatively limited, explaining only a small percentage of shape variation in males and females. In accordance with previous hypotheses, the size of the os coxae tends to increase with decreasing temperature, although the significance of the association is reduced when population history is taken into account. In conclusion, the shape and size of the human os coxae reflect both neutral evolutionary processes and climatically-driven adaptive changes. Neutral processes have a substantial effect on pelvic variation, suggesting such factors will need to be taken into account in future studies of human and fossil hominin coxal variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights

Operationalizing analysis of micro-level climate change vulnerability and adaptive capacity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jiao, Xi; Moinuddin, Hasan

2016-01-01

This paper explores vulnerability and adaptive capacity of rural communities in Southern Laos, where households are highly dependent on climate-sensitive natural resources and vulnerable to seasonal weather fluctuations. The speed and magnitude of climate-induced changes may seriously challenge...... their ability to adapt. Participatory group discussions and 271 household surveys in three villages highlight the current level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity towards climatic variability and risks. This paper visualizes three dimensions of the vulnerability framework at two levels using the Community...... Climate Vulnerability Index and household climate vulnerability cube. Results show that not only poor households are most at risk from climate change challenges, but also those better-off households highly dependent on specialized agricultural production are locally exposed to climate change risks...

Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

Science.gov (United States)

Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

2013-01-01

A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year

Non-Gaussian conductivity fluctuations in semiconductors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Melkonyan, S.V.

2010-01-01

A theoretical study is presented on the statistical properties of conductivity fluctuations caused by concentration and mobility fluctuations of the current carriers. It is established that mobility fluctuations result from random deviations in the thermal equilibrium distribution of the carriers. It is shown that mobility fluctuations have generation-recombination and shot components which do not satisfy the requirements of the central limit theorem, in contrast to the current carrier's concentration fluctuation and intraband component of the mobility fluctuation. It is shown that in general the mobility fluctuation consist of thermal (or intraband) Gaussian and non-thermal (or generation-recombination, shot, etc.) non-Gaussian components. The analyses of theoretical results and experimental data from literature show that the statistical properties of mobility fluctuation and of 1/f-noise fully coincide. The deviation from Gaussian statistics of the mobility or 1/f fluctuations goes hand in hand with the magnitude of non-thermal noise (generation-recombination, shot, burst, pulse noises, etc.).

Fluctuations in quantum chaos

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casati, G.; Chirikov, B.V.

1996-01-01

Various fluctuations in quantum systems with discrete spectrum are discussed, including recent unpublished results. Open questions and unexplained peculiarities of quantum fluctuations are formulated [ru

A unified nonlinear stochastic time series analysis for climate science.

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, Woosok; Wettlaufer, John S

2017-03-13

Earth's orbit and axial tilt imprint a strong seasonal cycle on climatological data. Climate variability is typically viewed in terms of fluctuations in the seasonal cycle induced by higher frequency processes. We can interpret this as a competition between the orbitally enforced monthly stability and the fluctuations/noise induced by weather. Here we introduce a new time-series method that determines these contributions from monthly-averaged data. We find that the spatio-temporal distribution of the monthly stability and the magnitude of the noise reveal key fingerprints of several important climate phenomena, including the evolution of the Arctic sea ice cover, the El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Nio and the Indian Dipole Mode. In analogy with the classical destabilising influence of the ice-albedo feedback on summertime sea ice, we find that during some time interval of the season a destabilising process operates in all of these climate phenomena. The interaction between the destabilisation and the accumulation of noise, which we term the memory effect, underlies phase locking to the seasonal cycle and the statistical nature of seasonal predictability.

Quenching of superconductivity in disordered thin films by phase fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hebard, A.F.; Palaanen, M.A.

1992-01-01

The amplitude Ψ 0 and phase Φ of the superconducting order parameter in thin-film systems are affected differently by disorder and dimensionality. With increasing disorder superconducting long range order is quenched in sufficiently thin films by physical processes driven by phase fluctuations. This occurs at both the zero-field vortex-antivortex unbinding transition and at the zero-temperature magnetic-field-tuned superconducting-insulating transition. At both of these transitions Ψ 0 is finite and constant, vanishing only when temperature, disorder, and/or magnetic field are increased further. Experimental results on amorphous-composite InO x films are presented to illustrate these points and appropriate comparisons are made to other experimental systems. (orig.)

Orbital Noise in the Earth System is a Common Cause of Climate and Greenhouse-Gas Fluctuation

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, H. S.; Kolenkiewicz, R.; Wade, C., Jr.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The mismatch between fossil isotopic data and climate models known as the cool-tropic paradox implies that either the data are flawed or we understand very little about the climate models of greenhouse warming. Here we question the validity of the climate models on the scientific background of orbital noise in the Earth system. Our study shows that the insolation pulsation induced by orbital noise is the common cause of climate change and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, we find that the intensity of the insolation pulses is dependent on the latitude of the Earth. Thus, orbital noise is the key to understanding the troubling paradox in climate models.

Teaching and Practicing Climate Politics at College of the Atlantic: Student-inspired, Student-driven

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doreen Stabinsky

2015-06-01

Full Text Available College of the Atlantic students past and present play leadership roles in the international climate justice youth movement. Student interest in climate change politics at the global level, particularly within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has inspired the development of a range of courses at COA in global environmental diplomacy. The courses provide a climate justice framework for understanding the geopolitics and political economy of the negotiations, serve to link students with key actors in the climate justice movement, and ultimately to contribute to their own development as climate justice leaders.

CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beier, C. [ed.; Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.; Estiarte, M.; Penuelas, J.; Llorens Guash, L.; Williams, D.; Gordon, C.; Pugh, B.; Roda, F.; Gundersen, P.; Gorissen, A.

2000-01-01

Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3 deg. C increase in temperature with more vigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought periods in the coming 100 years. The consequence of such climatic changes for the terrestrial ecosystems are largely unknown. In order to improve our understanding of the ecosystem response to climate change and thereby to improve the basis for the international negotiations and political decisions to avoid or minimise climate change and its effects, a European research project CLIMOOR has been initiated. The project is a cross European research project involving 6 research groups from Denmark, the Netherlands, UK and Spain and is funded by EU and the participating institutions. The project investigates the potential effects of warming and drought on heath and moorland ecosystems at four European sites. The ecosystems are manipulated at field scale by reducing the heat loss at night by IR-reflective curtains and by removing the precipitation during a 2 month period in the summer. The effects of these manipulations on the plants and the soil are studied. This report describes the technique used to apply the climate change at field scale and presents some preliminary results after the first growing season. EU and the participating institutions fund CLIMOOR. (au)

Fluorescence fluctuation spectroscopy (FFS)

CERN Document Server

Tetin, Sergey

2012-01-01

This new volume of Methods in Enzymology continues the legacy of this premier serial with quality chapters authored by leaders in the field. This volume covers fluorescence fluctuation spectroscopy and includes chapters on such topics as Förster resonance energy transfer (fret) with fluctuation algorithms, protein corona on nanoparticles by FCS, and FFS approaches to the study of receptors in live cells. Continues the legacy of this premier serial with quality chapters authored by leaders in the field Covers fluorescence fluctuation spectroscopy Contains chapters on such topics as Förster resonance energy transfer (fret) with fluctuation algorithms, protein corona on nanoparticles by FCS, and FFS approaches to the study of receptors in live cells.

Climate Change Amplifications of Climate-Fire Teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere

Science.gov (United States)

Mariani, Michela; Holz, Andrés.; Veblen, Thomas T.; Williamson, Grant; Fletcher, Michael-Shawn; Bowman, David M. J. S.

2018-05-01

Recent changes in trend and variability of the main Southern Hemisphere climate modes are driven by a variety of factors, including increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases, changes in tropical sea surface temperature, and stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery. One of the most important implications for climatic change is its effect via climate teleconnections on natural ecosystems, water security, and fire variability in proximity to populated areas, thus threatening human lives and properties. Only sparse and fragmentary knowledge of relationships between teleconnections, lightning strikes, and fire is available during the observed record within the Southern Hemisphere. This constitutes a major knowledge gap for undertaking suitable management and conservation plans. Our analysis of documentary fire records from Mediterranean and temperate regions across the Southern Hemisphere reveals a critical increased strength of climate-fire teleconnections during the onset of the 21st century including a tight coupling between lightning-ignited fire occurrences, the upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode, and rising temperatures across the Southern Hemisphere.

Climatic niche and neutral genetic diversity of the six Iberian pine species: a retrospective and prospective view.

Science.gov (United States)

Soto, A; Robledo-Arnuncio, J J; González-Martínez, S C; Smouse, P E; Alía, R

2010-04-01

Quaternary climatic fluctuations have left contrasting historical footprints on the neutral genetic diversity patterns of existing populations of different tree species. We should expect the demography, and consequently the neutral genetic structure, of taxa less tolerant to particular climatic extremes to be more sensitive to long-term climate fluctuations. We explore this hypothesis here by sampling all six pine species found in the Iberian Peninsula (2464 individuals, 105 populations), using a common set of chloroplast microsatellite markers, and by looking at the association between neutral genetic diversity and species-specific climatic requirements. We found large variation in neutral genetic diversity and structure among Iberian pines, with cold-enduring mountain species (Pinus uncinata, P. sylvestris and P. nigra) showing substantially greater diversity than thermophilous taxa (P. pinea and P. halepensis). Within species, we observed a significant positive correlation between population genetic diversity and summer precipitation for some of the mountain pines. The observed pattern is consistent with the hypotheses that: (i) more thermophilous species have been subjected to stronger demographic fluctuations in the past, as a consequence of their maladaptation to recurrent glacial cold stages; and (ii) altitudinal migrations have allowed the maintenance of large effective population sizes and genetic variation in cold-tolerant species, especially in more humid regions. In the light of these results and hypotheses, we discuss some potential genetic consequences of impending climate change.

Fluctuation dynamics in geoelectrical data: an investigation by using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Telesca, Luciano; Colangelo, Gerardo; Lapenna, Vincenzo; Macchiato, Maria

2004-01-01

We analyzed fluctuations in the time dynamics of nonstationary geoelectrical data, recorded in a seismic area of southern Italy, by means of the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The multifractal character of the signal depends mostly on the different long-range properties for small and large fluctuations. The time variation of indices, denoting the departure from monofractal behaviour, reveals an enhancement of the multifractality of the signal prior seismic occurrences

[Consequences of atmospheric pollution fluctuations in patients with COPD].

Science.gov (United States)

Amiot, N; Tillon, J; Viacroze, C; Aouine, H; Muir, J-F

2010-10-01

Fluctuations in atmospheric pollution are responsible for an important morbidity and mortality in the patients suffering from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Epidemiological studies show a significant increase in the mortality and hospitalization rates in COPD patients in relation to moderate increases in atmospheric pollution. In vitro and in vivo studies demonstrate a pro-inflammatory role and an oxidative toxicity of atmospheric particles and secondary morphological and functional changes in the respiratory epithelium and the immune system. An excess of particulate matter, ozone, NO(2), SO(2) and CO is directly correlated to the number of episodes of acute respiratory failure in different countries all over the world. The mechanisms implicated are complex and variable, dependent on the different pollutant agents, climatic variations and inter-individual susceptibility. Further experimental studies are necessary in order to clarify our fundamental understanding and, alongside better control of air quality, to reduce short-term respiratory complications. The consequences of atmospheric pollution fluctuations on the exacerbation rate and therefore on the morbidity and mortality of patients with COPD emphasize the importance of preventive environmental management in the field of public health. Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Masson SAS.

Strain fluctuations and elastic constants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parrinello, M.; Rahman, A.

1982-03-01

It is shown that the elastic strain fluctuations are a direct measure of elastic compliances in a general anisotropic medium; depending on the ensemble in which the fluctuation is measured either the isothermal or the adiabatic compliances are obtained. These fluctuations can now be calculated in a constant enthalpy and pressure, and hence, constant entropy, ensemble due to recent develpments in the molecular dynamics techniques. A calculation for a Ni single crystal under uniform uniaxial 100 tensile or compressive load is presented as an illustration of the relationships derived between various strain fluctuations and the elastic modulii. The Born stability criteria and the behavior of strain fluctuations are shown to be related.

Inverse energy cascade and emergence of large coherent vortices in turbulence driven by Faraday waves.

Science.gov (United States)

Francois, N; Xia, H; Punzmann, H; Shats, M

2013-05-10

We report the generation of large coherent vortices via inverse energy cascade in Faraday wave driven turbulence. The motion of floaters in the Faraday waves is three dimensional, but its horizontal velocity fluctuations show unexpected similarity with two-dimensional turbulence. The inverse cascade is detected by measuring frequency spectra of the Lagrangian velocity, and it is confirmed by computing the third moment of the horizontal velocity fluctuations. This is observed in deep water in a broad range of wavelengths and vertical accelerations. The results broaden the scope of recent findings on Faraday waves in thin layers [A. von Kameke et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 107, 074502 (2011)].

Spectroscopic imaging of photopotentials and photoinduced potential fluctuations in a bulk heterojunction solar cell film.

Science.gov (United States)

Luria, Justin L; Hoepker, Nikolas; Bruce, Robert; Jacobs, Andrew R; Groves, Chris; Marohn, John A

2012-11-27

We present spatially resolved photovoltage spectra of a bulk heterojunction solar cell film composed of phase-separated poly(9,9'-dioctylfluorene-co-benzothiadiazole) (F8BT) and poly(9,9'-dioctylfluorene-co-bis-N,N'-(4-butylphenyl)-bis-N,N'-phenyl-1,4-phenylenediamine) (PFB) polymers prepared on ITO/PEDOT:PSS and aluminum substrates. Over both PFB- and F8BT-rich domains, the photopotential spectra were found to be proportional to a linear combination of the polymers' absorption spectra. Charge trapping in the film was studied using photopotential fluctuation spectroscopy, in which low-frequency photoinduced electrostatic potential fluctuations were measured by observing noise in the oscillation frequency of a nearby charged atomic force microscope cantilever. Over both F8BT- and PFB-rich regions, the magnitude, distance dependence, frequency dependence, and illumination wavelength dependence of the observed cantilever frequency noise are consistent with photopotential fluctuations arising from stochastic light-driven trapping and detrapping of charges in F8BT. Taken together, our findings suggest a microscopic mechanism by which intermixing of phases leads to charge trapping and thereby to suppressed open-circuit voltage and decreased efficiency in this prototypical bulk heterojunction solar cell film.

Derivation of stochastic differential equations for scrape-off layer plasma fluctuations from experimentally measured statistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mekkaoui, Abdessamad [IEK-4 Forschungszentrum Juelich 52428 (Germany)

2013-07-01

A method to derive stochastic differential equations for intermittent plasma density dynamics in magnetic fusion edge plasma is presented. It uses a measured first four moments (mean, variance, Skewness and Kurtosis) and the correlation time of turbulence to write a Pearson equation for the probability distribution function of fluctuations. The Fokker-Planck equation is then used to derive a Langevin equation for the plasma density fluctuations. A theoretical expectations are used as a constraints to fix the nonlinearity structure of the stochastic differential equation. In particular when the quadratically nonlinear dynamics is assumed, then it is shown that the plasma density is driven by a multiplicative Wiener process and evolves on the turbulence correlation time scale, while the linear growth is quadratically damped by the fluctuation level. Strong criteria for statistical discrimination of experimental time series are proposed as an alternative to the Kurtosis-Skewness scaling. This scaling is broadly used in contemporary literature to characterize edge turbulence, but it is inappropriate because a large family of distributions could share this scaling. Strong criteria allow us to focus on the relevant candidate distribution and approach a nonlinear structure of edge turbulence model.

Drivers and uncertainties of forecasted range shifts for warm-water fishes under climate and land cover change

Science.gov (United States)

Bouska, Kristen; Whitledge, Gregory W.; Lant, Christopher; Schoof, Justin

2018-01-01

Land cover is an important determinant of aquatic habitat and is projected to shift with climate changes, yet climate-driven land cover changes are rarely factored into climate assessments. To quantify impacts and uncertainty of coupled climate and land cover change on warm-water fish species’ distributions, we used an ensemble model approach to project distributions of 14 species. For each species, current range projections were compared to 27 scenario-based projections and aggregated to visualize uncertainty. Multiple regression and model selection techniques were used to identify drivers of range change. Novel, or no-analogue, climates were assessed to evaluate transferability of models. Changes in total probability of occurrence ranged widely across species, from a 63% increase to a 65% decrease. Distributional gains and losses were largely driven by temperature and flow variables and underscore the importance of habitat heterogeneity and connectivity to facilitate adaptation to changing conditions. Finally, novel climate conditions were driven by mean annual maximum temperature, which stresses the importance of understanding the role of temperature on fish physiology and the role of temperature-mitigating management practices.

Critical condition for current-driven instability excited in turbulent heating of TRIAM-1 tokamak plasma

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nakamura, Y; Watanabe, T; Nagao, A; Nakamura, K; Kikuchi, M; Aoki, T; Hiraki, N; Itoh, S [Kyushu Univ., Fukuoka (Japan). Research Inst. for Applied Mechanics; Mitarai, O

1982-02-01

Critical condition for current-driven instability excited in turbulently heated TRIAM-1 tokamak plasma is investigated experimentally. Resistive hump in loop voltage, plasma density fluctuation and rapid increase of electron temperature in a skin layer are simultaneously observed at the time when the electron drift velocity amounts to the critical drift velocity for low-frequency ion acoustic instability.

Response of salt-marsh carbon accumulation to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Kirwan, Matthew L; Mudd, Simon M

2012-09-27

About half of annual marine carbon burial takes place in shallow water ecosystems where geomorphic and ecological stability is driven by interactions between the flow of water, vegetation growth and sediment transport. Although the sensitivity of terrestrial and deep marine carbon pools to climate change has been studied for decades, there is little understanding of how coastal carbon accumulation rates will change and potentially feed back on climate. Here we develop a numerical model of salt marsh evolution, informed by recent measurements of productivity and decomposition, and demonstrate that competition between mineral sediment deposition and organic-matter accumulation determines the net impact of climate change on carbon accumulation in intertidal wetlands. We find that the direct impact of warming on soil carbon accumulation rates is more subtle than the impact of warming-driven sea level rise, although the impact of warming increases with increasing rates of sea level rise. Our simulations suggest that the net impact of climate change will be to increase carbon burial rates in the first half of the twenty-first century, but that carbon-climate feedbacks are likely to diminish over time.

Land use compounds habitat losses under projected climate change in a threatened California ecosystem.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Erin Coulter Riordan

Full Text Available Given the rapidly growing human population in mediterranean-climate systems, land use may pose a more immediate threat to biodiversity than climate change this century, yet few studies address the relative future impacts of both drivers. We assess spatial and temporal patterns of projected 21(st century land use and climate change on California sage scrub (CSS, a plant association of considerable diversity and threatened status in the mediterranean-climate California Floristic Province. Using a species distribution modeling approach combined with spatially-explicit land use projections, we model habitat loss for 20 dominant shrub species under unlimited and no dispersal scenarios at two time intervals (early and late century in two ecoregions in California (Central Coast and South Coast. Overall, projected climate change impacts were highly variable across CSS species and heavily dependent on dispersal assumptions. Projected anthropogenic land use drove greater relative habitat losses compared to projected climate change in many species. This pattern was only significant under assumptions of unlimited dispersal, however, where considerable climate-driven habitat gains offset some concurrent climate-driven habitat losses. Additionally, some of the habitat gained with projected climate change overlapped with projected land use. Most species showed potential northern habitat expansion and southern habitat contraction due to projected climate change, resulting in sharply contrasting patterns of impact between Central and South Coast Ecoregions. In the Central Coast, dispersal could play an important role moderating losses from both climate change and land use. In contrast, high geographic overlap in habitat losses driven by projected climate change and projected land use in the South Coast underscores the potential for compounding negative impacts of both drivers. Limiting habitat conversion may be a broadly beneficial strategy under climate change

A regional climate simulation over the Iberian Peninsula for the last millennium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. J. Gómez-Navarro

2011-04-01

Full Text Available A high-resolution (30 km regional paleoclimate simulation of the last millennium over the Iberian Peninsula (IP is presented. The simulation was performed with a climate version of the mesoscale model MM5 driven by the global model ECHO-G. Both models were driven by the same reconstructions of several external forcing factors. The high spatial resolution of the regional model allows climatologists to realistically simulate many aspects of the climate in the IP, as compared to an observational data set in the reference period 1961–1990. Although the spatial-averaged values developed by the regional model are tightly driven by the boundary conditions, it is capable to develop a different realisation of the past climate at regional scales, especially in the high-frequency domain and for precipitation. This has to be considered when comparing the results of climate simulations versus proxy reconstructions. A preliminary comparison of the simulation results with reconstructions of temperature and precipitation over the IP shows good agreement in the warming trends in the last century of the simulation, although there are large disagreements in key periods such as the precipitation anomalies in the Maunder Minimum.

'Tales of Symphonia': extinction dynamics in response to past climate change in Madagascan rainforests.

Science.gov (United States)

Virah-Sawmy, Malika; Bonsall, Michael B; Willis, Katherine J

2009-12-23

Madagascar's rainforests are among the most biodiverse in the world. Understanding the population dynamics of important species within these forests in response to past climatic variability provides valuable insight into current and future species composition. Here, we use a population-level approach to analyse palaeoecological records over the last 5300 years to understand how populations of Symphonia cf. verrucosa became locally extinct in some rainforest fragments along the southeast coast of Madagascar in response to rapid climate change, yet persisted in others. Our results indicate that regional (climate) variability contributed to synchronous decline of S. cf. verrucosa populations in these forests. Superimposed on regional fluctuations were local processes that could have contributed or mitigated extinction. Specifically, in the forest with low soil nutrients, population model predictions indicated that there was coexistence between S. cf. verrucosa and Erica spp., but in the nutrient-rich forest, interspecific effects between Symphonia and Erica spp. may have pushed Symphonia to extinction at the peak of climatic change. We also demonstrate that Symphonia is a good indicator of a threshold event, exhibiting erratic fluctuations prior to and long after the critical climatic point has passed.

The Current-Driven, Ion-Acoustic Instability in a Collisionless Plasma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Michelsen, Poul; Pécseli, Hans; Juul Rasmussen, Jens

1979-01-01

The current-driven, ion-acoustic instability was investigated by means of an experiment performed in a collisionless plasma produced in a single-ended Q-machine. Reflections at the ends of the plasma column gave rise to a standing wave. Parameters of the instability were investigated, and it was ......, and it was demonstrated that the fluctuations in the plasma column behave as a classical Van der Pol oscillator. Accurate measurements of the growth rate of the instability can be performed by making explicit use of the particular properties of such a system.......The current-driven, ion-acoustic instability was investigated by means of an experiment performed in a collisionless plasma produced in a single-ended Q-machine. Reflections at the ends of the plasma column gave rise to a standing wave. Parameters of the instability were investigated...

Global Air Quality and Climate

Science.gov (United States)

Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.;

Canadian climate impacts program. Programme Canadien des incidences climatologiques

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1987-01-01

In recognition of the impact of climate and climatic fluctuations on society, a Canadian Climate Program was established in 1978 to integrate the efforts of various federal and provincial agencies, as well as the universities and private sector, in the field of climatology. One of the program's main components since 1984 has been research to assess and identify the potential social and economic impacts of climate warming expected under a doubled carbon dioxide scenario. These and other studies over the last several years have clearly shown that increasing greenhouse gas concentrations have the potential for profound impacts on Canada's physical environment. However, they also show that there is considerable uncertainty associated with the magnitude of the expected climate warming and with understanding the relationships between climate, the biophysical environment, and socioeconomic systems. This report summarizes the program and specific studies including those on the impact of climate change on navigation and power generation, agriculture, tourism and recreation, and the marine environment.

Modelling the influence of changing climate in present and future marine eutrophication impacts from spring barley production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cosme, Nuno Miguel Dias; Niero, Monia