WorldWideScience

Sample records for climatically driven emissions

  1. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10–90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the

  2. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  3. Functional resilience against climate-driven extinctions

    OpenAIRE

    Liebergesell, Mario; Reu, Björn; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 trait...

  4. Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.

    2015-07-01

    Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are

  5. Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Aamaas

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the context of climate change, emissions of different species (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane are not directly comparable since they have different radiative efficiencies and lifetimes. Since comparisons via detailed climate models are computationally expensive and complex, emission metrics were developed to allow a simple and straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts of emissions of different species. Emission metrics are not unique and variety of different emission metrics has been proposed, with key choices being the climate impacts and time horizon to use for comparisons. In this paper, we present analytical expressions and describe how to calculate common emission metrics for different species. We include the climate metrics radiative forcing, integrated radiative forcing, temperature change and integrated temperature change in both absolute form and normalised to a reference gas. We consider pulse emissions, sustained emissions and emission scenarios. The species are separated into three types: CO2 which has a complex decay over time, species with a simple exponential decay, and ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOC which indirectly effect climate via various chemical interactions. We also discuss deriving Impulse Response Functions, radiative efficiency, regional dependencies, consistency within and between metrics and uncertainties. We perform various applications to highlight key applications of emission metrics, which show that emissions of CO2 are important regardless of what metric and time horizon is used, but that the importance of short lived climate forcers varies greatly depending on the metric choices made. Further, the ranking of countries by emissions changes very little with different metrics despite large differences in metric values, except for the shortest time horizons (GWP20.

  6. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  7. Climate-driven regime shift of a temperate marine ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wernberg, Thomas; Bennett, Scott; Babcock, Russell C; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Cure, Katherine; Depczynski, Martial; Dufois, Francois; Fromont, Jane; Fulton, Christopher J; Hovey, Renae K; Harvey, Euan S; Holmes, Thomas H; Kendrick, Gary A; Radford, Ben; Santana-Garcon, Julia; Saunders, Benjamin J; Smale, Dan A; Thomsen, Mads S; Tuckett, Chenae A; Tuya, Fernando; Vanderklift, Mathew A; Wilson, Shaun

    2016-07-01

    Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests. PMID:27387951

  8. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  9. Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Samia, Noelle I.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn;

    2006-01-01

    The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis preva...... in the same region, and they are expected to  continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change.  Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague....... prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1°C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose...

  10. Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Eugene J.; Trathan, Philip N; Watkins, Jon L.; Reid, Keith; Meredith, Michael P.; Forcada, Jaume; Thorpe, Sally E.; Johnston, Nadine M; Rothery, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmosp...

  11. Climate, energy and emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors question the 4 main concerns that have arisen since the implementation of emission trade markets 3 years ago. First, the allowance policy was not accurate enough and has led to a surplus offer of CO2 allowances. Secondly, the impact on electricity prices of carbon emission costs was all the higher as it happened at the moment of the deregulation of electricity markets. Thirdly, the CO2 allowances whose price will near 14 euros a ton for the 2008-2012 period are accused of hindering the competitiveness of the European industrial sector. Fourth, the present allowance system that gives to new comers free CO2 allowances is not very conducive to the adoption by these new comers of technologies that are less CO2 emitting. Some ways of improvement are given. (A.C.)

  12. Parameter sensitivity of climate models and climate driven ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.

    2006-01-01

    Uncertainty in the outcome of numerical models of physical and biological processes, such as the climate and ecological systems, is widely recognized. One contributing factor is uncertainty in model parameters. Because of this uncertainty, a range of model outcomes is usually given. This might obstr

  13. Climate-driven changes in water level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rikke Bjerring; Olsen, Jesper; Jeppesen, Erik;

    2013-01-01

    similar to 150 years before the onset of the 8.2-ka cooling event registered in Greenland ice cores, but was synchronous with hydrologic change in the North American Lake Agassiz drainage. The lake level decrease was accompanied by a higher accumulation rate of inorganic matter and lower accumulation...... rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water...... level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions...

  14. Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeckner, E.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.; Kloster, S.; Esch, M.; Fischer-Bruns, I.

    2006-11-01

    The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m-2 and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced

  15. Far-infrared surface emissivity and climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feldman, Daniel R; Collins, William D; Pincus, Robert; Huang, Xianglei; Chen, Xiuhong

    2014-11-18

    Presently, there are no global measurement constraints on the surface emissivity at wavelengths longer than 15 μm, even though this surface property in this far-IR region has a direct impact on the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and infrared cooling rates where the column precipitable water vapor (PWV) is less than 1 mm. Such dry conditions are common for high-altitude and high-latitude locations, with the potential for modeled climate to be impacted by uncertain surface characteristics. This paper explores the sensitivity of instantaneous OLR and cooling rates to changes in far-IR surface emissivity and how this unconstrained property impacts climate model projections. At high latitudes and altitudes, a 0.05 change in emissivity due to mineralogy and snow grain size can cause a 1.8-2.0 W m(-2) difference in the instantaneous clear-sky OLR. A variety of radiative transfer techniques have been used to model the far-IR spectral emissivities of surface types defined by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Program. Incorporating these far-IR surface emissivities into the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario of the Community Earth System Model leads to discernible changes in the spatial patterns of surface temperature, OLR, and frozen surface extent. The model results differ at high latitudes by as much as 2°K, 10 W m(-2), and 15%, respectively, after only 25 y of integration. Additionally, the calculated difference in far-IR emissivity between ocean and sea ice of between 0.1 and 0.2, suggests the potential for a far-IR positive feedback for polar climate change.

  16. Far-infrared surface emissivity and climate

    OpenAIRE

    Feldman, Daniel R.; Collins, William D.; Pincus, Robert; Huang, Xianglei; Chen, Xiuhong

    2014-01-01

    We find that many of the Earth's climate variables, including surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, cooling rates, and frozen surface extent, are sensitive to far-IR surface emissivity, a largely unconstrained, temporally and spatially heterogeneous scaling factor for the blackbody radiation from the surface at wavelengths between 15 μm and 100 μm. We also describe a previously unidentified mechanism that amplifies high-latitude and high-altitude warming in finding significantly l...

  17. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Leedale

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  18. Projecting climate-driven increases in North American fire activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate regulates fire activity through controls on vegetation productivity (fuels), lightning ignitions, and conditions governing fire spread. In many regions of the world, human management also influences the timing, duration, and extent of fire activity. These coupled interactions between human and natural systems make fire a complex component of the Earth system. Satellite data provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of recent fire activity, as active fires, burned area, and land cover information can be combined to separate wildfires from intentional burning for agriculture and forestry. Here, we combined satellite-derived burned area data with land cover and climate data to assess fire-climate relationships in North America between 2000-2012. We used the latest versions of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) burned area product and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate data to develop regional relationships between burned area and potential evaporation (PE), an integrated dryness metric. Logistic regression models were developed to link burned area with PE and individual climate variables during and preceding the fire season, and optimal models were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Overall, our model explained 85% of the variance in burned area since 2000 across North America. Fire-climate relationships from the era of satellite observations provide a blueprint for potential changes in fire activity under scenarios of climate change. We used that blueprint to evaluate potential changes in fire activity over the next 50 years based on twenty models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models suggest an increase of PE under low and high emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with largest increases in projected burned area across the western US and central Canada. Overall, near

  19. Climate-driven diversification in two widespread Galerida larks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Crochet Pierre-André

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The major impact of Plio-Pleistocene climatic oscillations on the current genetic structure of many species is widely recognised but their importance in driving speciation remains a matter of controversies. In addition, since most studies focused on Europe and North America, the influence of many other biogeographic barriers such as the Sahara remains poorly understood. In this paper, climate-driven diversification was investigated by using a comparative phylogeographic approach in combination with phenotypic data in two avian species groups distributed on both sides of the deserts belt of Africa and Asia. In particular, we tested whether: 1 vicariance diversification events are concomitant with past climatic events; and 2 current ecological factors (using climate and competition as proxies contribute to phenotypic divergence between allopatric populations. Results Mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data indicated that the crested and Thekla lark species groups diverged in the early Pliocene and that subsequent speciation events were congruent with major late Pliocene and Pleistocene climatic events. In particular, steep increase in aridity in Africa near 2.8 and 1.7 million years ago were coincident with two north-south vicariance speciation events mediated by the Sahara. Subsequent glacial cycles of the last million years seem to have shaped patterns of genetic variation within the two widespread species (G. cristata and G. theklae. The Sahara appears to have allowed dispersal from the tropical areas during climatic optima but to have isolated populations north and south of it during more arid phases. Phenotypic variation did not correlate with the history of populations, but was strongly influenced by current ecological conditions. In particular, our results suggested that (i desert-adapted plumage evolved at least three times and (ii variation in body size was mainly driven by interspecific competition, but the response

  20. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Holmes, C. D.; Prather, M. J.; O.A. Søvde; Myhre, G.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in three chemical transport models (CTMs) – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – over the period 1997–2009 and compare the mo...

  1. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. PMID:27062059

  2. Distinctive timing of US historical surface ozone change determined by climate and anthropogenic emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Yingying; Lin, Jintai

    2016-04-01

    Future changes in surface ozone in a warming climate is an important question for the United States. Analyses of historical ozone change in response to climate change, although useful for validating theories regarding future ozone changes, are complicated by concurrent changes in anthropogenic emissions. Here we find that the individual contributions of climate and precursor emissions to US historical ozone changes over 1990-2014 can be distinguished by contrasting the changes in daytime versus nighttime ozone, based on an analysis of observed and simulated annual mean ozone time series. In particular, climate variability has determined ozone interannual variability, particularly for the daytime ozone, while reductions of anthropogenic NOx emissions have primarily driven an increase in the nighttime ozone. Our results have important implications for future ozone change studies and ozone mitigation.

  3. The ENSO signal in atmospheric composition fields: emission driven vs. dynamically induced changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Inness

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO does not only affect meteorological fields but also has a large impact on atmospheric composition. Atmospheric composition fields from the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC reanalysis are used to identify the ENSO signal in tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide and smoke aerosols, concentrating on the months October to December. During El Niño years all these fields have increased concentrations over maritime South East Asia in October. The MACC Composition Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS model is used to quantify the relative magnitude of dynamically induced and emission driven changes in the atmospheric composition fields. While changes in tropospheric ozone are a combination of dynamically induced and emission driven changes, the changes in carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide and smoke aerosols are almost entirely emission driven in the MACC model. The ozone changes continue into December, i.e. after the end of the Indonesian fire season while changes in the other fields are confined to the fire season.

  4. A Science-Driven Photojournalistic Documentation of Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braasch, G.; Rothlein, J. E.

    2013-12-01

    Office of the President; two original books (one for middle schools with a co-author); publication in hundreds of magazines, textbooks and public interest websites; use during university, government and civic seminars and scientific meetings; and distribution among and use by Congressional offices. Most recently the project inspired films about youth involvement in citizen science and climate change education; and co-developed Apps for the iPad and iPhone which graphically show climate-driven changes in repeat photographs and maps. Financial support for this work has come principally from publication fees and grants from small foundations and individuals (via Blue Earth Alliance of Seattle).

  5. Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Simpson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000–2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the result across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N-compounds. One model (EMEP was used to explore changes in critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems which exceed critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3 emission increase.

  6. Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Simpson

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000–2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulfur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N compounds. One model (EMEP was used to explore changes in critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems that exceeds critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3 emission increase.

  7. Temperature-driven groundwater convection in cold climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Maria; Nordell, Bo

    2016-08-01

    The aim was to study density-driven groundwater flow and analyse groundwater mixing because of seasonal changes in groundwater temperature. Here, density-driven convection in groundwater was studied by numerical simulations in a subarctic climate, i.e. where the water temperature was ground was also studied. An initial disturbance in the form of a horizontal groundwater flow was necessary to start the convection. Transient solutions describe the development of convective cells in the groundwater and it took 22 days before fully developed convection patterns were formed. The thermal convection reached a maximum depth of 1.0 m in soil of low permeability (2.71 · 10-9 m2). At groundwater temperature close to its density maximum (4 °C), the physical size (in m) of the convection cells was reduced. Small stones or frost lenses in the ground slightly affect the convective flow, while larger obstacles change the size and shape of the convection cells. Performed simulations show that "seasonal groundwater turnover" occurs. This knowledge may be useful in the prevention of nutrient leakage to underlying groundwater from soils, especially in agricultural areas where no natural vertical groundwater flow is evident. An application in northern Sweden is discussed.

  8. Temperature-driven groundwater convection in cold climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Maria; Nordell, Bo

    2016-05-01

    The aim was to study density-driven groundwater flow and analyse groundwater mixing because of seasonal changes in groundwater temperature. Here, density-driven convection in groundwater was studied by numerical simulations in a subarctic climate, i.e. where the water temperature was soil permeability and groundwater temperature (i.e. viscosity and density) were determined. The influence of impermeable obstacles in otherwise homogeneous ground was also studied. An initial disturbance in the form of a horizontal groundwater flow was necessary to start the convection. Transient solutions describe the development of convective cells in the groundwater and it took 22 days before fully developed convection patterns were formed. The thermal convection reached a maximum depth of 1.0 m in soil of low permeability (2.71 · 10-9 m2). At groundwater temperature close to its density maximum (4 °C), the physical size (in m) of the convection cells was reduced. Small stones or frost lenses in the ground slightly affect the convective flow, while larger obstacles change the size and shape of the convection cells. Performed simulations show that "seasonal groundwater turnover" occurs. This knowledge may be useful in the prevention of nutrient leakage to underlying groundwater from soils, especially in agricultural areas where no natural vertical groundwater flow is evident. An application in northern Sweden is discussed.

  9. How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lacressonnière

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors, and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense. Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc. and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.. Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM

  10. How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lacressonnière

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period: analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run is a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors, and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense. Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 6-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure ldots and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities . . .. Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10

  11. A framework to understand the transient climate response to emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Williams, Richard G.; Goodwin, Philip; Roussenov, Vassil M.; Bopp, Laurent

    2015-01-01

    Global surface warming projections have been empirically connected to carbon emissions via a climate index defined as the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), revealing that surface warming is nearly proportional to carbon emissions. Here, we provide a theoretical framework to understand the TCRE including the effects of all radiative forcing in terms of the product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing contribution...

  12. Patterns of wildfires and emissions under future climate conditions across the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawbaker, T. J.; Zhu, Z.; Finney, M.; Riley, K. L.; Jolly, W. M.; Keane, R. E.; Reinhardt, E.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to result in increased wildfire occurrence and greenhouse gas emissions in the conterminous United States. To better understand potential changes and their impacts, we asked: How might such expected changes vary over space and time in the conterminous United States, and across different climate-change scenarios? We quantified baseline patterns of burned area and emissions using burn scars from 2001-2008. Then, we developed a simulation model to assess the influence of climate change on patterns of wildfire ignitions, spread, and emissions. The simulation model was calibrated using historic fire, weather, and climate data and then used to generate projections under the A1B, A2, and B1 climate-change scenarios. We defined typical fire years and extreme fire years as the 50th and 95th percentile of decadal area burned or emissions. Then, we evaluated simulated changes in burned area and emissions among the 2001-2010 and 2041-2050 decades. Across the conterminous United States, our simulations results showed that during a typical fire year, area burned increased 25-52% from 15,700 km2 and emissions increased 20-48% from a baseline level of 56.0 TgCO2-eq. Extreme fire years in the 2041-2050 decade were more extreme than in the baseline period, and area burned increased 65-85% from 31,700 km2 and emissions increased 49-142% from 92.7 TgCO2-eq. Projected changes in fire occurrence and emissions were minimal for the Great Plains, but substantial for the West and certain ecoregions in the East. These results suggest that future wildfire activities could play a larger role in terms of socioeconomic risks and the health and productivity of ecosystems, and that efforts designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will compete with potential carbon losses due to climate-driven increases in wildfire occurrence.

  13. Cavity-enhanced light emission from electrically driven carbon nanotubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyatkov, Felix; Fütterling, Valentin; Khasminskaya, Svetlana; Flavel, Benjamin S.; Hennrich, Frank; Kappes, Manfred M.; Krupke, Ralph; Pernice, Wolfram H. P.

    2016-06-01

    An important advancement towards optical communication on a chip would be the development of integratable, nanoscale photonic emitters with tailored optical properties. Here we demonstrate the use of carbon nanotubes as electrically driven high-speed emitters in combination with a nanophotonic cavity that allows for exceptionally narrow linewidths. The one-dimensional photonic crystal cavities are shown to spectrally select desired emission wavelengths, enhance intensity and efficiently couple light into the underlying photonic network with high reproducibility. Under pulsed voltage excitation, we realize on-chip modulation rates in the GHz range, compatible with active photonic networks. Because the linewidth of the molecular emitter is determined by the quality factor of the photonic crystal, our approach effectively eliminates linewidth broadening due to temperature, surface interaction and hot-carrier injection.

  14. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  15. An integrated statistical and data-driven framework for supporting flood risk analysis under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.; Xie, Y. J.

    2016-02-01

    An integrated statistical and data-driven (ISD) framework was proposed for analyzing river flows and flood frequencies in the Duhe River Basin, China, under climate change. The proposed framework involved four major components: (i) a hybrid model based on ASD (Automated regression-based Statistical Downscaling tool) and KNN (K-nearest neighbor) was used for downscaling rainfall and CDEN (Conditional Density Estimate Network) was applied for downscaling minimum temperature and relative humidity from global circulation models (GCMs) to local weather stations; (ii) Bayesian neural network (BNN) was used for simulating monthly river flows based on projected weather information; (iii) KNN was applied for converting monthly flow to daily time series; (iv) Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was adopted for flood frequency analysis. In this study, the variables from CGCM3 A2 and HadCM3 A2 scenarios were employed as the large-scale predictors. The results indicated that the maximum monthly and annual runoffs would both increase under CGCM3 and HadCM3 A2 emission scenarios at the middle and end of this century. The flood risk in the study area would generally increase with a widening uncertainty range. Compared with traditional approaches, the proposed framework takes the full advantages of a series of statistical and data-driven methods and offers a parsimonious way of projecting flood risks under climatic change conditions.

  16. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Wijnbergen; T. Willems

    2015-01-01

    Climate skeptics typically argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous, implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing emissions until we know what drives warming. This paper however shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a di

  17. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Wijnbergen; T. Willems

    2012-01-01

    Climate skeptics argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions until we know more. However this paper shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a change of dir

  18. Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrenfeld, Michael J; O'Malley, Robert T; Siegel, David A; McClain, Charles R; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Feldman, Gene C; Milligan, Allen J; Falkowski, Paul G; Letelier, Ricardo M; Boss, Emmanuel S

    2006-12-01

    Contributing roughly half of the biosphere's net primary production (NPP), photosynthesis by oceanic phytoplankton is a vital link in the cycling of carbon between living and inorganic stocks. Each day, more than a hundred million tons of carbon in the form of CO2 are fixed into organic material by these ubiquitous, microscopic plants of the upper ocean, and each day a similar amount of organic carbon is transferred into marine ecosystems by sinking and grazing. The distribution of phytoplankton biomass and NPP is defined by the availability of light and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, iron). These growth-limiting factors are in turn regulated by physical processes of ocean circulation, mixed-layer dynamics, upwelling, atmospheric dust deposition, and the solar cycle. Satellite measurements of ocean colour provide a means of quantifying ocean productivity on a global scale and linking its variability to environmental factors. Here we describe global ocean NPP changes detected from space over the past decade. The period is dominated by an initial increase in NPP of 1,930 teragrams of carbon a year (Tg C yr(-1)), followed by a prolonged decrease averaging 190 Tg C yr(-1). These trends are driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability. This link between the physical environment and ocean biology functions through changes in upper-ocean temperature and stratification, which influence the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth. The observed reductions in ocean productivity during the recent post-1999 warming period provide insight on how future climate change can alter marine food webs. PMID:17151666

  19. Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrenfeld, Michael J; O'Malley, Robert T; Siegel, David A; McClain, Charles R; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Feldman, Gene C; Milligan, Allen J; Falkowski, Paul G; Letelier, Ricardo M; Boss, Emmanuel S

    2006-12-01

    Contributing roughly half of the biosphere's net primary production (NPP), photosynthesis by oceanic phytoplankton is a vital link in the cycling of carbon between living and inorganic stocks. Each day, more than a hundred million tons of carbon in the form of CO2 are fixed into organic material by these ubiquitous, microscopic plants of the upper ocean, and each day a similar amount of organic carbon is transferred into marine ecosystems by sinking and grazing. The distribution of phytoplankton biomass and NPP is defined by the availability of light and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, iron). These growth-limiting factors are in turn regulated by physical processes of ocean circulation, mixed-layer dynamics, upwelling, atmospheric dust deposition, and the solar cycle. Satellite measurements of ocean colour provide a means of quantifying ocean productivity on a global scale and linking its variability to environmental factors. Here we describe global ocean NPP changes detected from space over the past decade. The period is dominated by an initial increase in NPP of 1,930 teragrams of carbon a year (Tg C yr(-1)), followed by a prolonged decrease averaging 190 Tg C yr(-1). These trends are driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability. This link between the physical environment and ocean biology functions through changes in upper-ocean temperature and stratification, which influence the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth. The observed reductions in ocean productivity during the recent post-1999 warming period provide insight on how future climate change can alter marine food webs.

  20. Emissions and climate forcing from global and Arctic fishing vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKuin, Brandi; Campbell, J. Elliott

    2016-02-01

    Fishing vessels were recently found to be the largest source of black carbon ship emissions in the Arctic, suggesting that the fishing sector should be a focus for future studies. Here we developed a global and Arctic emissions inventory for fishing vessel emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers based on data from a wide range of vessel sizes, fuel sulfur contents, engine types, and operational characteristics. We found that previous work generally underestimated emissions of short-lived climate forcers due to a failure to account for small fishing vessels as well as variability in emission factors. In particular, global black carbon emissions were underestimated by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, our order of magnitude estimate of the net climate effect from these fishing vessel emissions suggests that short-lived climate forcing may be particularly important in regions where fuel has a low sulfur content. These results have implications for proposed maritime policies and provide a foundation for future climate simulations to forecast climate change impacts in the Arctic.

  1. The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla

    2013-01-01

    to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections...... from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily vary by 20% for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France....... (2) Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20 %. (3) Climate change may increase emissions by 0–40% in central to northern Europe. (4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK...

  2. Emissions trading for climate policy - US and European perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernd Hansjuergens (ed.) [Martin Luther-Universitaet Halle-Wittenburg (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    The 1997 Kyoto Conference introduced emissions trading as a new policy instrument for climate protection. Bringing together scholars in the fields of economics, political science and law, this book provides a description, analysis and evaluation of different aspects of emissions trading as an instrument to control greenhouse gases. The authors analyse theoretical aspects of regulatory instruments for climate policy, provide an overview of US experience with market-based instruments, draw lessons from existing trading schemes for the control of greenhouse gases, and discuss options for emissions trading in climate policy. They also highlight the background of climate policy and instrument choice in the US and Europe and of the emerging new systems in Europe, particularly the new EU's directive for a CO{sub 2} emissions trading system. 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  3. A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

    2011-04-15

    The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

  4. Optimal Learning on Climate Change: Why Climate Skeptics should reduce Emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Wijnbergen, van, S.; Willems, T.

    2012-01-01

    Climate skeptics argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions until we know more. However this paper shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a change of direction facilitates their learning process on the causes of global warming. Since the optimal policy action depends on these causes, they are valuable to know. Although an increase in emissions woul...

  5. Climate response: Strong warming at high emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frölicher, Thomas L.

    2016-09-01

    The ratio of global temperature change to cumulative emissions is relatively constant up to two trillion tonnes of carbon emissions. Now a new modelling study suggests that the concept of a constant ratio is even applicable to higher cumulative carbon emissions, with important implications for future warming.

  6. Comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter mainly due to growing consumption of fossil fuels. In 2009, the Chinese government committed itself to reducing domestic carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Therefore, it is a top priority for the Chinese government to adopt efficient policy instruments to reduce its carbon intensity. Against this background, this paper develops a general equilibrium model and seeks to provide empirical contributions by comparing the potential impacts of several different policy options to reduce China's carbon emissions. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, these climate policies would affect the structure of economy and contribute to carbon emissions reduction and carbon intensity reduction. Secondly, there would be significant differences in the economic and environmental effects among different climate policies and hence, the government would trade-off among different economic objectives to overcome any potential resistances. Thirdly, there would be considerable differences in the emissions effects of absolute and intensity-based carbon emissions controls, implying that the government might adopt different climate policies for absolute or intensity-based carbon emissions controls. Looking ahead, the government should trade-off among different objectives when designing climate reforms. - Highlights: • We develop a static general equilibrium model to simulate the impacts of climate policies. • We compare the potential impacts of various climate policies in China. • We discuss how to design these policies to make them more effective

  7. Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amstel, van A.R.

    2005-01-01

    We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model (

  8. Beamed neutron emission driven by laser accelerated light ions

    CERN Document Server

    Kar, S; Ahmed, H; Alejo, A; Robinson, A P L; Cerchez, M; Clarke, R; Doria, D; Dorkings, S; Fernandez, J; Mirfyazi, S R; McKenna, P; Naughton, K; Neely, D; Norreys, P; Peth, C; Powell, H; Ruiz, J A; Swain, J; Willi, O; Borghesi, M

    2015-01-01

    We report on the experimental observation of beam-like neutron emission with peak flux of the order of 10^9 n/sr, from light nuclei reactions in a pitcher-catcher scenario, by employing MeV ions driven by high power laser. The spatial profile of the neutron beam, fully captured for the first time by employing a CR39 nuclear track detector, shows a FWHM divergence angle of 70 degrees, with a peak flux nearly an order of magnitude higher than the isotropic component elsewhere. The observed beamed flux of neutrons is highly favourable for a wide range of applications, and indeed for further transport and moderation to thermal energies. A systematic study employing various combinations of pitcher-catcher materials indicates the dominant reactions being d(p, n+p)^1H and d(d,n)^3He. Albeit insufficient cross-section data are available for modelling, the observed anisotropy in the neutrons' spatial and spectral profiles are most likely related to the directionality and high energy of the projectile ions.

  9. National and international trade in climate gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It requires a great deal of effort to get international emission trading into the Kyoto Climate Convention in 1997, and the political debate on the topic has not ended yet. The NRP research project on national and international trade in climate gas emissions was conducted away from the negotiation process, led by its own research agenda. Nevertheless, or possibly even because of that, some of the research results are relevant to policy makers. They have been set down in the NRP report on National and international emission trading for greenhouse gases. This article deals mainly with the politically interesting parts of the research

  10. Climate-driven hydrologic transients in Holocene lake records

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Alison J; Donovan, Joseph J.; Engstrom, Daniel R.; Ito, Emi; Panek, Valerie; Gong, Eric

    1996-01-01

    Understanding the link between climate and regional hydrologic processes is of primary importance in estimating the possible impact of future climate change and in the validation of climate models that attempt to simulate such changes. Two distinct problems need to be addressed: quantitatively establishing the link between changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, and determining how these changes are expressed over differing temporal and spatial scales. To solve these problems, our interd...

  11. Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

  12. Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  13. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  14. Variations in Mid-Ocean Ridge CO2 Emissions Driven By Glacial Cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burley, J. M.; Katz, R. F.; Huybers, P. J.

    2014-12-01

    spreading rate and mantle permeability. Delayed CO2 response to ice-age-driven sea-level creates the possibility of climactic feedback. A dynamical-systems climate model indicates that for sufficiently large and delayed variations in emissions, such a feedback could pace the glacial/interglacial oscillations.

  15. Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2015-09-01

    Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or

  16. Greenhouse gas emissions considered responsible for climate change: Environmental indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper concerns the more significant environmental indicators related to the emissions of radiatively and chemically/photochemically active trace gases. Reference is made to the preliminary work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to the proposals made in the framework of the international negotiation on climate change. Aiming to contribute to the definition of a national strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, this paper proposes a possible application of the indicators. The calculation of the indicators is based on the emission estimate performed by ENEA (Italian National Agency for Energy, New Technologies and the Environment) for the Report on the State of the Environment edited by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Finally, the paper suggests an application of such indicators for the international negotiation, in the framework of the Italian proposal for the Convention on climate change

  17. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  18. Fordism, Finance-driven Capitalism, and Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buch-Hansen, Hubert

    2014-01-01

    Review of Capitalism and Climate Change: Theoretical Discussion, Historical Development and Policy Responses by Max Koch. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012, pp. 240, ISBN: 9780230272514, £55 (hbk.)...

  19. Climate change and WTO : boundary mediation on certified emission reductions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Ho Cheol

    2011-07-15

    This book mentions climate change and WTO with is climate change true? International effort for reduce of greenhouse gas with UNFCCC, Kyoto protocol, Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreement, WTO norm, discussion on introduction of boundary mediation on certified emission reductions, analysis on regulation related WTO norm, violation of regulation on border measure of prohibition, violation of principle on GATT, justification, except through Article 20 of GATT, assessment of policy and supplementation on the law.

  20. Arctic Shipping Emissions in the Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Vihanninjoki, Vesa

    2014-01-01

    Due to the Arctic climate change and the related diminishing of Arctic sea ice cover, the general conditions for Arctic shipping are changing. The retreat of Arctic sea ice opens up new routes for maritime transportation, both trans-Arctic passages and new alternatives within the Arctic region. Hence the amount of Arctic shipping is presumed to increase. Despite the observed development, the sailing conditions in the Arctic waters will remain challenging. Thus particular attention will be ...

  1. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in multiple models over the period 1997–2009, adding sensitivity tests to determine key variables that drive the year-to-year variability. Across three atmospheric chemistry and transport models – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – we find that temperature, water vapor, ozone column, biomass burning and lightning NOx are the dominant sources of interannual changes in methane lifetime. We also evaluate the model responses to forcings that have impacts on decadal time scales, such as methane feedback, and anthropogenic NOx emissions. In general, these different CTMs show similar sensitivities to the driving variables. We construct a parametric model that reproduces most of the interannual variability of each CTM and use it to predict methane lifetime from 1980 through 2100 following a specified emissions and climate scenario (RCP 8.5. The parametric model propagates uncertainties through all steps and provides a foundation for predicting methane abundances in any climate scenario. Our sensitivity tests also enable a new estimate of the methane global warming potential (GWP, accounting for stratospheric ozone effects, including those mediated by water vapor. We estimate the 100-yr GWP to be 32.

  2. Climate change driven plant-metal-microbe interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, Mani; Prasad, Majeti Narasimha Vara; Swaminathan, Sandhya; Freitas, Helena

    2013-03-01

    Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico-chemico-biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO₂, temperature and drought influence the plant-metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant-microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant-metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security.

  3. Modelling Wave-Driven Coastal Sediment Transport in a Climate Change Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonaldo, Davide; Benetazzo, Alvise; Bergamasco, Andrea; Carniel, Sandro; Marcello Falcieri, Francesco; Sclavo, Mauro

    2013-04-01

    Coastal morphodynamics is the result of a number of processes in which most of the driving factors strongly depend on climatic conditions. Thus, climate change is one of the most impacting constraints in governing long-term coastal landscape evolution: in particular, such influence acts through sea level rise and the effects of changes in atmospheric dynamics. While the former causes a general retreat of the shoreline and the flooding of the underlying coastal zones, with a direct effect on the coastal zone, changes in atmospheric dynamics modify landscape processes via storm surge and wave climate variations. In particular, modifications in wave storminess affect coastal sediment transport, with possibly relevant implications especially in environments with strong morphodynamic activity. In the present work we investigate the impact of a possible climate change scenario on wave-driven coastal sediment transport in a deltaic system in the Northern Adriatic Sea with reference to the period 2070-2099. To this aim, the results of a spectral wave model (SWAN) forced with climatological wind fields have been used. These were obtained by means of a high-resolution Regional Climate Model (COSMO-CLM) with reference to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The resulting wave climate has been used as a constraint for a hydro- morphodynamic model, which was applied to a test site on the Po Delta (Northern Italy): relevant transport processes have been studied both at decadal and at storm time scales and compared with the corresponding results of a control analysis (1965-1995) representing the actual climate. A predicted reduction of the cyclonic activity in the Northern Adriatic Sea produces a decrease in significant wave height (Benetazzo et al., 2012), thus generating non-negligible impacts on sediment resuspension and transport processes along the western Adriatic coast. In particular, compared to cross-shore transport, long-shore sediment drift appears to be most affected by

  4. Aligning corporate greenhouse-gas emissions targets with climate goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krabbe, Oskar; Linthorst, Giel; Blok, Kornelis; Crijns-Graus, Wina; Vuuren, Van Detlef P.; Höhne, Niklas; Faria, Pedro; Aden, Nate; Pineda, Alberto Carrillo

    2015-01-01

    Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of cle

  5. Multimodel emission metrics for regional emissions of short lived climate forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aamaas, B.; Berntsen, T. K.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shine, K. P.; Bellouin, N.

    2015-09-01

    For short lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemistry-transport or coupled-chemistry climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May-October) and winter season (November-April) for emissions from Europe, East Asia, as well as the global shipping sector. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosols precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), and ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOC), which also influence aerosols, to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated relative to CO2, using Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramp up period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies. For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOC. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of a mitigation policy package is robust even when accounting for correlations. For

  6. Climate Stabilization at 2oC and "Net Zero" Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Chen, H.; Haigh, M.; Prinn, R. G.

    2015-12-01

    The goal to stabilize global average surface temperature at 2oC above pre-industrial level has been extensively discussed in climate negotiations. A number of recent publications state that achieving this goal will require net anthropogenic carbon emissions (which may include a carbon sink by carbon capture and sequestration and reforestation) to be reduced to zero between years 2050 and 2100. In this study we explore possible emission scenarios under which surface warming will not exceed 2oC, by means of emission driven climate simulations with an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity linked to an Economic Projection and Policy Analysis Model. We carried out a number of simulations from 1861 to 2500 for different values of parameters defining the strength of the climate system response to radiative forcing and the strength of the carbon cycle and under different anthropogenic emission scenarios. Results of our simulations suggest that anthropogenic emissions do not have to be zero by 2050 or 2100 because of carbon sinks in oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions falling from today's 36 GtCO2/year to 11-25 GtCO2/year by 2050 and then to 4.5-12 GtCO2/year by 2100 is consistent with a 2°C target for the range of climate sensitivity similar to the IPCC likely range. Long-term changes in the surface temperature depend on the emissions profiles after 2100. For post-2100 carbon emissions decreasing at a rate of about 0.2% per year, natural ecosystems will be able to absorb enough carbon, that together with decreases in emissions of other GHGs, can prevent surface temperature from rising. Technology mixes and costs to achieve the 2°C target are highly dependent on the assumptions about the future costs of low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies. In all scenarios, the energy system required substantial transformations in a relatively short time. Under current assumptions about the cost trajectories for the needed technologies, the 2

  7. A framework to understand the transient climate response to emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global surface warming projections have been empirically connected to carbon emissions via a climate index defined as the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), revealing that surface warming is nearly proportional to carbon emissions. Here, we provide a theoretical framework to understand the TCRE including the effects of all radiative forcing in terms of the product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing contribution from atmospheric CO2 and the dependence of radiative forcing from atmospheric CO2 on cumulative carbon emissions. This framework is used to interpret the climate response over the next century for two Earth System Models of differing complexity, both containing a representation of the carbon cycle: an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, configured as an idealised coupled atmosphere and ocean, and an Earth System Model, based on an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and including non-CO2 radiative forcing and a land carbon cycle. Both Earth System Models simulate only a slight decrease in the TCRE over 2005–2100. This limited change in the TCRE is due to the ocean and terrestrial system acting to sequester both heat and carbon: carbon uptake acts to decrease the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions, which is partly compensated by changes in ocean heat uptake acting to increase the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing. On decadal timescales, there are larger changes in the TCRE due to changes in ocean heat uptake and changes in non-CO2 radiative forcing, as represented by decadal changes in the dependences of surface warming on radiative forcing and the fractional radiative forcing contribution from atmospheric CO2. Our framework may be used to interpret the response of different climate models and used to provide traceability between climate models of differing complexity. (letter)

  8. From climate change to emissions trading : a briefing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global warming is caused by the presence of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the earth's atmosphere. These gases include, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxides, sulphur dioxide and methane. GHGs trap heat between the earth's atmosphere and the earth's surface to cause an overall warming trend of the Earth. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was established to address the issue of climate change and to determine the anthropogenic impact on climate change. Evidence from ice cores suggest that global warming has occurred in the past. The current state of global warming was examined by comparing the climate of today with that of the past. It was determined that the current global warming trend surpasses that of any ever observed in the past. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 as a policy set to address the need for the world to reduce GHG emissions into the atmosphere. The Kyoto Protocol puts forth 3 sets of mechanisms to help businesses reduce GHG emissions. Emissions trading is one of them: it is a financial flexibility mechanism that allows businesses that have emitted more than their allowed share of GHGs to buy allowances from business that have emitted fewer GHGs than they were allowed. Emissions trading does not create reductions, however, it identifies the most economical solution to reduce GHGs. TransAlta, Ontario Power Generation and Suncor have conducted a few transactions to see how the market will work. There will be a global register to keep track of all assigned allowances. The paper described government action in addressing the climate change issue with reference to actions in the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland. Canada has initiated the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading Pilot (GERT) to test the effectiveness of emission reduction trading for GHGs in the Canadian context. GERT is a partnership between the federal government, some provinces, industry, labour and environmental groups. Ontario has established a

  9. High resolution isoprene emissions over Europe in past and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; Berckmans, Julie; Caluwaerts, Steven; De Troch, Rozemien; De Cruz, Lesley; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet; Schaeybroeck, Bert

    2016-04-01

    Isoprene is a key tropospheric species, well known as the dominant biogenic hydrocarbon emitted in the atmosphere, with global annual emissions of about 400-600 Tg (Guenther et al. 2006). It is highly reactive, enhances tropospheric ozone formation in polluted environments and contributes to secondary aerosol formation. The emissions of isoprene (and other biogenic VOCs) depend on the type and abundance of plants, and are modulated by meteorological parameters. Climate changes can therefore affect the spatiotemporal and interannual variation of these emissions. In this study we propose to use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model (Muller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) to calculate the isoprene fluxes emitted by vegetation in past and future climate over the European (EURO-CORDEX) domain at a resolution of 12.5 km. More specifically, isoprene emissions over 1979-2012 will be calculated based either on ECMWF reanalysis data or on meteorological output from the ALARO-0 climate model (Giot et al., 2015). The impact of solar radiation changes, observed at European stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo et al., 2015), on the modelled emissions will also be investigated. MEGAN-MOHYCAN simulations will be performed over the period 2040-2100 based on input from ALARO-0 model driven by the RCP8.5 scenario. The isoprene interannual variability and emission trends will be derived and thoroughly discussed. Giot, O. et al.: Validation of the ALARO-0 model within the EURO-CORDEX framework, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 8387-8409, 2015. Guenther, A. et al.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, 2006. Müller, J.-F. et al.: Global isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN, ECMWF analyses and a detailed canopy environmental model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1329-1341, 2008. Sanchez-Lorenzo, A. et al.: Reassessment and update of long-term trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over

  10. Australia's dengue risk driven by human adaptation to climate change.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nigel W Beebe

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region's urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the reintroduction of Ae. aegypti from Queensland, where it remains endemic, back into New South Wales and other populated centres in Australia, along with the associated emerging and re-emerging dengue risk if the virus was to be introduced. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Having collated the known distribution of Ae. aegypti in Australia, we built distributional models using a genetic algorithm to project Ae. aegypti's distribution under today's climate and under climate change scenarios for 2030 and 2050 and compared the outputs to published theoretical temperature limits. Incongruence identified between the models and theoretical temperature limits highlighted the difficulty of using point occurrence data to study a species whose distribution is mediated more by human activity than by climate. Synthesis of this data with dengue transmission climate limits in Australia derived from historical dengue epidemics suggested that a proliferation of domestic water storage tanks in Australia could result in another range expansion of Ae. aegypti which would present a risk of dengue transmission in most major cities during their warm summer months. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: In the debate of the role climate change will play in the future range of dengue in Australia, we conclude that the increased risk of an Ae. aegypti range expansion in Australia would be due not directly to climate change but rather to human adaptation to the current and forecasted regional drying

  11. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J. T.; Gardner, A. S.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Wiese, D. N.; Eicker, A.; Lo, M.-H.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level.

  12. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level.

  13. Costs of Emission Metrics in the Context of Climate Stabilizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Katsumasa; Johansson, Daniel; O'Neill, Brian; Fuglestvedt, Jan

    2014-05-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (Article 2) and stipulates that policies and measures should cover all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases (Article 3.3). An emission metric to evaluate emissions of non-CO2 gases on a common scale of CO2 is critical for climate policymaking and also essential in a single basket approach to GHG emission abatement to achieve climate stabilization (for example, at 2°C warming target as recognized in the Cancún Agreements). While the Global Warming Potential (GWP) is by far the most common metric used in climate policies (e.g. Kyoto Protocol), alternative metrics are proposed to overcome deficiencies in the GWP. Those include the Cost-Effective Temperature Potential (CETP), Forcing Equivalent Index (FEI), Global Cost Potential (GCP), Global Damage Potential (GDP), Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), Mean Global Temperature change Potential (MGTP), Peak Commitment Temperature (PCT), Regional Temperature change Potential (RTP), Sustained Emission Temperature (SET), and TEMperature Proxy index (TEMP). A number of studies provide estimates of such metrics for different gases under a variety of assumptions and approaches. It has been demonstrated that emission metrics take a large range of values when compared in the context of climate stabilization, depending largely on the metric structure and the treatment of the time dimension. On the contrary, the differences in stabilization costs arising from the choice of metrics are shown to be disproportionally small in both cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit frameworks (i.e. a few to several percent higher costs relative to those based on optimal price ratios). However, only a limited set of metrics has been a subject of cost estimation and such calculations

  14. Climate-driven enrichment of pollutants in peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Martínez Cortizas

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands play an important role for global carbon dynamics, acting as a sink or source depending on climate. Such changes imply a series of additional effects because peatlands are also an important reservoir of atmospherically derived pollutants. Using a multiproxy approach (non-pollen-palynomorphs, δ15N, C/N, Se, Br, I, Hg, Ti, we show a relationship between climate (wetter–drier and peat decomposition, which affected element concentrations in a Spanish bog during the last 5500 years. Changes in superficial wetness played a critical role in the cycling of elements coupled to carbon dynamics. Dry phases caused increased peat mineralisation, resulting in a 2–3 times increase in concentrations of the analysed elements independent from atmospheric fluxes. Under the present trend of climate change large areas of northern peatlands are expected to be severely affected; in this context our findings indicate that the increase in carbon release, which leads to an enrichment of elements, may enhance the export of stored contaminants (Hg, organohalogens to the aquatic systems or to the atmosphere.

  15. Climate-driven enrichment of pollutants in peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Martínez Cortizas

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands play an important role for global carbon dynamics, acting as a sink or source depending on climate. Such changes imply a series of additional effects because peatlands are also an important reservoir of atmospherically derived pollutants. Using a multiproxy approach (non-pollen-palynomorphs, δ15N, C/N, Se, Br, I, Hg, Ti, we show a relationship between climate (wetter-drier and peat decomposition, which affected element concentrations in a Spanish bog during the last 5500 years. Changes in superficial wetness played a critical role in the cycling of elements coupled to carbon dynamics. Dry phases caused increased peat mineralisation, resulting in a 2–3 times increase in concentrations of the analysed elements independent from atmospheric fluxes. Under the present trend of climate change large areas of northern peatlands are expected to be severely affected; in this context our findings indicate that the increase in carbon release, which leads to an enrichment of elements, may enhance the export of stored contaminants (Hg, organohalogens to the aquatic systems or to the atmosphere.

  16. Assessing the geomorphological sensitivity of cold climate mountains to climate-driven permafrost degradation: the case of the Russian Altai Mountains

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendrickx, Hanne; Nyssen, Jan; Sannel, Britta; Goossens, Rudi; Lehmkuhl, Frank; Babin, Valery; Bourgeois, Jean; Lanckriet, Sil; Frankl, Amaury

    2016-04-01

    remote sensing. This will be validated with geomorphologocal and climatological field data and result in permafrost probability maps. Spatio-temporal geomorphic dynamics will be linked to permafrost state and distribution using these regional permafrost probability maps. Quantifying the magnitude of greenhouse gas emissions from thawing permafrost will be done for different permafrost environments. By doing so, this study expects to contribute to the understanding of the geomorphological sensitivity of cold climate mountains to climate-driven permafrost degradation, and to assess the potential of such mountains to greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. A Data Driven Framework for Integrating Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, C.; Kleese van Dam, K.; Liu, Y.; Elsethagen, T.; Guillen, Z.; Stephan, E.; Critchlow, T.; Gorton, I.

    2012-12-01

    There are increasing needs for research addressing complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. Decisions about allocating scarce water across competing municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem demands is just one of the challenges ahead, along with decisions regarding competing land use priorities such as biofuels, food, and species habitat. Being able to predict the extent of future climate change in the context of introducing alternative energy production strategies requires a new generation of modeling capabilities. We will also need more complete representations of human systems at regional scales, incorporating the influences of population centers, land use, agriculture and existing and planned electrical demand and generation infrastructure. At PNNL we are working towards creating a first-of-a-kind capability known as the Integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM). The fundamental goal of the iRESM initiative is the critical analyses of the tradeoffs and consequences of decision and policy making for integrated human and environmental systems. This necessarily combines different scientific processes, bridging different temporal and geographic scales and resolving the semantic differences between them. To achieve this goal, iRESM is developing a modeling framework and supporting infrastructure that enable the scientific team to evaluate different scenarios in light of specific stakeholder questions such as "How do regional changes in mean climate states and climate extremes affect water storage and energy consumption and how do such decisions influence possible mitigation and carbon management schemes?" The resulting capability will give analysts a toolset to gain insights into how regional economies can respond to climate change mitigation policies and accelerated deployment of alternative energy technologies. The iRESM framework consists of a collection of coupled models working with high

  18. Monitoring strategies of stream phosphorus under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goyenola, Guillermo; Meerhoff, Marianna; Teixeira-de Mello, Franco;

    2015-01-01

    and the performance of alternative monitoring strategies in streams under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes. We compared a set of paired streams draining lowland micro-catchments under temperate climate and stable discharge conditions (Denmark) and under sub-tropical climate and flashy conditions (Uruguay). We...... phosphorus export from diffuse sources in streams in Uruguay streams, mostly as a consequence of higher variability in flow regime (higher flashiness). Contrarily, we found a higher contribution of dissolved P in flashy streams. We did not find a notably poorer performance of the low-frequency sampling...

  19. Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenzie, Donald; Shankar, Uma; Keane, Robert E.; Stavros, E. Natasha; Heilman, Warren E.; Fox, Douglas G.; Riebau, Allen C.

    2014-02-01

    Smoke from wildfires has adverse biological and social consequences, and various lines of evidence suggest that smoke from wildfires in the future may be more intense and widespread, demanding that methods be developed to address its effects on people, ecosystems, and the atmosphere. In this paper, we present the essential ingredients of a modeling system for projecting smoke consequences in a rapidly warming climate that is expected to change wildfire regimes significantly. We describe each component of the system, offer suggestions for the elements of a modeling agenda, and provide some general guidelines for making choices among potential components. We address a prospective audience of researchers whom we expect to be fluent already in building some or many of these components, so we neither prescribe nor advocate particular models or software. Instead, our intent is to highlight fruitful ways of thinking about the task as a whole and its components, while providing substantial, if not exhaustive, documentation from the primary literature as reference. This paper provides a guide to the complexities of smoke modeling under climate change, and a research agenda for developing a modeling system that is equal to the task while being feasible with current resources.

  20. Properties of a field emission-driven Townsend discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumbach, Paul; Go, David

    2012-10-01

    For half a century, it has been known that the onset of field emission in direct current (DC) microplasmas with gap sizes less than 10 μm can lead to breakdown at applied voltages far less than predicted by Paschen's law. It is still unclear how field emission affects other fundamental plasma properties at this scale. In this work, a one-dimensional fluid model is used to predict basic scaling laws for fundamental properties such as ion density, electric field due to space charge, and current voltage relations in the pre-breakdown regime. Computational results are compared with approximate analytic solutions. It is shown that ionizing collisions by field-emitted electrons produce significant ion densities well before Paschen's criteria for breakdown is met. When positive space charge densities become sufficiently large, the effect of ion-enhanced field emission leads to breakdown. Defining breakdown mathematically using a solvability condition leads to a full modified Paschen's curve, while defining it physically in terms of a critical ion density leads analytically to an effective secondary emission coefficient, γ', of the form initially suggested by Boyle and Kisliuk.footnotetextBoyle, W.S. and Kisliuk, P., Phys. Rev. 97, 255 (1955).

  1. Climate Change Impacts of US Reactive Nitrogen Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinder, R. W.; Davidson, E. A.; Goodale, C. L.; Greaver, T.; Herrick, J.; Liu, L.

    2011-12-01

    By fossil fuel combustion and fertilizer application, the US has substantially altered the nitrogen cycle, with serious effects on climate change. The climate effects can be short-lived, by impacting the chemistry of the atmosphere, or long-lived, by altering ecosystem greenhouse gas fluxes. Here, we develop a coherent framework for assessing the climate change impacts of US reactive nitrogen emissions. We use the global temperature potential (GTP) as a common metric, and we calculate the GTP at 20 and 100 years in units of CO2 equivalents. At both time-scales, nitrogen enhancement of CO2 uptake has the largest impact, because in the eastern US, areas of high nitrogen deposition are co-located with forests. In the short-term, the effect due to NOx altering ozone and methane concentrations is also substantial, but are not important on the 100 year time scale. Finally, the GTP of N2O emissions is substantial at both time scales. We have also attributed these impacts to combustion and agricultural sources, and quantified the uncertainty. Reactive nitrogen from combustion sources contribute more to cooling than warming. The impacts of agricultural sources tend to cancel each other out, and the net effect is uncertain. Recent trends show decreasing reactive nitrogen from US combustion sources, while agricultural sources are increasing. Fortunately, there are many mitigation strategies currently available to reduce the climate change impacts of US agricultural sources.

  2. Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.; Streets, David G.

    2009-04-01

    This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and the resulting feedback to natural emissions and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run, in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, N2O, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, DMS, N2O, H2, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), and photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions and other physical principles and pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions. Although the B1 scenario was "cleaner" than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither scenario is entirely beneficial from a climate and health perspective, and the best control measure is to reduce warming gases and warming/cooling particles together. Lightning emissions declined by ˜3% in the B1 scenario and ˜12% in the A1B scenario as the number of ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production increased by ˜2% in both scenarios. Emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes increased by ˜1% in the A1B scenario and 4-5% in the B1 scenario. Near-surface ozone increased by ˜14% in the A1B scenario and ˜4% in the B1 scenario, reducing ambient isoprene in the latter case. Gases from soils increased in both scenarios due to higher temperatures. Near-surface PM2.5 mass increased by ˜2% in the A1B scenario and decreased by ˜2% in the B1 scenario. The resulting 1.4% higher

  3. Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Dibari

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month and response variables (presence/absence of pastures to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%. Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46% and B2 (–41% along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the

  4. Incoherent synchrotron emission of laser-driven plasma edge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serebryakov, D. A., E-mail: dmserebr@gmail.com; Nerush, E. N.; Kostyukov, I. Yu. [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov St., Nizhny Novgorod 603950 (Russian Federation); Nizhny Novgorod State University, 23 Gagarin Avenue, Nizhny Novgorod 603950 (Russian Federation)

    2015-12-15

    When a relativistically intense linearly polarized laser pulse is incident on an overdense plasma, a dense electron layer is formed on the plasma edge which relativistic motion results in high harmonic generation, ion acceleration, and incoherent synchrotron emission of gamma-photons. Here we present a self-consistent analytical model that describes the edge motion and apply it to the problem of incoherent synchrotron emission by ultrarelativistic plasma electrons. The model takes into account both coherent radiation reaction from high harmonics and incoherent radiation reaction in the Landau–Lifshitz form. The analytical results are in agreement with 3D particle-in-cell simulations in a certain parameter region that corresponds to the relativistic electronic spring interaction regime.

  5. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in three chemical transport models (CTMs – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – over the period 1997–2009 and compare the models' year-to-year variability against constraints from global methyl chloroform observations. Using sensitivity tests, we find that temperature, water vapor, stratospheric ozone column, biomass burning and lightning NOx are the dominant sources of interannual changes in methane lifetime in all three models. We also evaluate each model's response to forcings that have impacts on decadal time scales, such as methane feedback, and anthropogenic emissions. In general, these different CTMs show similar sensitivities to the driving variables. We construct a parametric model that reproduces most of the interannual variability of each CTM and use it to predict methane lifetime from 1980 through 2100 following a specified emissions and climate scenario (RCP 8.5. The parametric model propagates uncertainties through all steps and provides a foundation for predicting methane abundances in any climate scenario. Our sensitivity tests also enable a new estimate of the methane global warming potential (GWP, accounting for stratospheric ozone effects, including those mediated by water vapor. We estimate the 100-yr GWP to be 32, which is 25% larger than past assessments.

  6. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Lessons from state climate action plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pollak, Melisa, E-mail: mpollak@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Meyer, Bryn, E-mail: meye1058@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Wilson, Elizabeth, E-mail: ewilson@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    We examine how state-level factors affect greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy preference across the United States by analyzing climate action plans (CAPs) developed in 11 states and surveying the CAP advisory group members. This research offers insights into how states approach the problem of choosing emissions-abatement options that maximize benefits and minimize costs, given their unique circumstances and the constellation of interest groups with power to influence state policy. The state CAPs recommended ten popular GHG reduction strategies to accomplish approximately 90% of emissions reductions, but they recommended these popular strategies in different proportions: a strategy that is heavily relied on in one state's overall portfolio may play a negligible role in another state. This suggests that any national policy to limit GHG emissions should encompass these key strategies, but with flexibility to allow states to balance their implementation for the state's unique geographic, economic, and political circumstances. Survey results strongly support the conclusion that decisions regarding GHG reductions are influenced by the mix of actors at the table. Risk perception is associated with job type for all strategies, and physical and/or geographic factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain GHG reduction strategies across states. - Highlights: > This study analyzed climate action plans from 12 states and surveyed the advisory group members. > Ten strategies supply 90% of recommended emission reductions, but states weigh them differently. > Advisory group members perceived different opportunities and risks in the top-ten strategies. > Both geographic and socio-political factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain strategies. > Cost, business practices and consumer behavior were ranked as the top barriers to reducing emissions.

  7. Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions--selecting climate-smart cultivars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenkranz, Maaria; Pugh, Thomas A M; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter; Arneth, Almut

    2015-09-01

    Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate not only via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared with natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land management and plant-breeding strategies, which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions while simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment. PMID:25255900

  8. Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions--selecting climate-smart cultivars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenkranz, Maaria; Pugh, Thomas A M; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter; Arneth, Almut

    2015-09-01

    Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate not only via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared with natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land management and plant-breeding strategies, which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions while simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment.

  9. Aligning corporate greenhouse-gas emissions targets with climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krabbe, Oskar; Linthorst, Giel; Blok, Kornelis; Crijns-Graus, Wina; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Höhne, Niklas; Faria, Pedro; Aden, Nate; Pineda, Alberto Carrillo

    2015-12-01

    Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of clear methods to derive consistent corporate target setting that keeps cumulative corporate GHG emissions within a specific carbon budget (for example, 550-1,300 GtCO2 between 2011 and 2050 for the 2 °C target). Here we propose a method for corporate emissions target setting that derives carbon intensity pathways for companies based on sectoral pathways from existing mitigation scenarios: the Sectoral Decarbonization Approach (SDA). These company targets take activity growth and initial performance into account. Next to target setting on company level, the SDA can be used by companies, policymakers, investors or other stakeholders as a benchmark for tracking corporate climate performance and actions, providing a mechanism for corporate accountability.

  10. The Impact of Changing Climate on Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture and the Associated Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, D. S.; Riddick, S. N.; Hess, P. G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of ammonia (NH3) on a global scale with major contributions from the application of synthetic fertilizer and manure from livestock. While strict controls are placed on the emissions of many industrial pollutants, NH3 concentrations are expected to increase this century. In addition to future expansion of agricultural activities that could lead to greater NH3 emissions, NH3 emissions are affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we use a newly developed agricultural N pathways model running in a global terrestrial model (Community Land Model v4.0) to estimate future NH3 emissions from manure and synthetic fertilizer application, and the impact of changing climate on these emissions and other N pathways (runoff, denitrification, etc.). We include future increases in the application of manure and synthetic fertilizer that are consistent with a middle-of-the-road projection of population growth and per capita caloric intake. Combined with atmospheric forcing that follows RCP8.5, NH3 emissions increase by about 50% and 90% between years 2010 and 2100 from synthetic fertilizer and manure, respectively. Roughly 25% of this increase can be attributed to the changing climate, mainly increased global temperatures over the 21st century. We show associated changes in ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate aerosol concentrations and radiative forcings, the results of a set of additional simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model v5.0 and an offline radiative transfer scheme. This work suggests that projections of global NH3 concentrations need to take changes in climate into account.

  11. Photoelectron Emission from Metal Surfaces Induced by VUV-emission of Filament Driven Hydrogen Arc Discharge Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Laulainen, J; Koivisto, H; Komppula, J; Tarvainen, O

    2015-01-01

    Photoelectron emission measurements have been performed using a filament-driven multi-cusp arc discharge volume production H^- ion source (LIISA). It has been found that photoelectron currents obtained with Al, Cu, Mo, Ta and stainless steel (SAE 304) are on the same order of magnitude. The photoelectron currents depend linearly on the discharge power. It is shown experimentally that photoelectron emission is significant only in the short wavelength range of hydrogen spectrum due to the energy dependence of the quantum efficiency. It is estimated from the measured data that the maximum photoelectron flux from plasma chamber walls is on the order of 1 A per kW of discharge power.

  12. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  13. Technology-Driven and Innovative Training for Sustainable Agriculture in The Face of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wishart, D. N.

    2015-12-01

    Innovative training in 'Sustainable Agriculture' for an increasingly STEM-dependent agricultural sector will require a combination of approaches and technologies for global agricultural production to increase while offsetting climate change. Climate change impacts the water resources of nations as normal global weather patterns are altered during El Nino events. Agricultural curricula must incorporate awareness of 'climate change' in order to find novel ways to (1) assure global food security; (2) improve soil productivity and conservation; (3) improve crop yields and irrigation; (4) inexpensively develop site specific principles of crop management based on variable soil and associated hydrological properties; and (5) improve precision farming. In February 2015, Central State University (CSU), Ohio became an 1890 Land-Grant institution vital to the sustainability of Ohio's agricultural sector. Besides agricultural extension, the agriculture curriculum at CSU integrates multidisciplinary courses in science, technology engineering, agriculture, and mathematics (STEAM). The agriculture program could benefit from a technology-driven, interdisciplinary soil science course that promotes climate change education and climate literacy while being offered in both a blended and collaborative learning environment. The course will focus on the dynamics of microscale to mesoscale processes occurring in farming systems, those of which impact climate change or could be impacted by climate change. Elements of this course will include: climate change webinars; soil-climate interactions; carbon cycling; the balance of carbon fluxes between soil storage and atmosphere; microorganisms and soil carbon storage; paleoclimate and soil forming processes; geophysical techniques used in the characterization of soil horizons; impact of climate change on soil fertility; experiments; and demonstrations.

  14. Climate-driven thresholds for chemical weathering in postglacial soils of New Zealand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixon, Jean L.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Vitousek, Peter M.

    2016-09-01

    Chemical weathering in soils dissolves and alters minerals, mobilizes metals, liberates nutrients to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and may modulate Earth's climate over geologic time scales. Climate-weathering relationships are often considered fundamental controls on the evolution of Earth's surface and biogeochemical cycles. However, surprisingly little consensus has emerged on if and how climate controls chemical weathering, and models and data from published literature often give contrasting correlations and predictions for how weathering rates and climate variables such as temperature or moisture are related. Here we combine insights gained from the different approaches, methods, and theory of the soil science, biogeochemistry, and geomorphology communities to tackle the fundamental question of how rainfall influences soil chemical properties. We explore climate-driven variations in weathering and soil development in young, postglacial soils of New Zealand, measuring soil elemental geochemistry along a large precipitation gradient (400-4700 mm/yr) across the Waitaki basin on Te Waipounamu, the South Island. Our data show a strong climate imprint on chemical weathering in these young soils. This climate control is evidenced by rapid nonlinear changes along the gradient in total and exchangeable cations in soils and in the increased movement and redistribution of metals with rainfall. The nonlinear behavior provides insight into why climate-weathering relationships may be elusive in some landscapes. These weathering thresholds also have significant implications for how climate may influence landscape evolution and the release of rock-derived nutrients to ecosystems, as landscapes that transition to wetter climates across this threshold may weather and deplete rapidly.

  15. On board emission and fuel consumption measurement campaign on petrol-driven passenger cars

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vlieger, I.

    Realistic emission and fuel consumption rates of petrol-driven cars were determined by on-the-road experiments in 1995. A validated, in-house developed, on-board measuring system was used. Six three-way catalyst (TWC) cars and one carburetted non-catalyst car were measured. The effects of road type, driving behaviour and cold start on CO, HC and NO x emissions and fuel consumption were analysed. In real traffic situations, emissions for TWC cars were found to be at least 70% lower than for the non-catalyst car. For TWC cars, emissions decreased across the board from city to rural and motorway traffic. Without a catalyst, motorway traffic resulted in the highest NO x emissions. Compared to normal driving, aggressive driving gave emissions which were up to four times higher. Except for NO x, calm driving resulted in lower emissions still. Comparable fuel consumption rates were obtained from normal and calm driving. Those from aggressive driving were higher, by as much as 40% in city traffic. Cold starts resulted in significantly higher CO and HC emission values than hot starts. These differences were less pronounced for NO x. Emissions from TWC cars were higher than generally expected, compared to the European emission limit values (91/441/EEC) and the emission factors used in Flanders and the Netherlands (Klein,1993) for the national emission inventories. Low-emitting cars during the emission test on a chassis dynamometer, as prescribed by the 91/441/EEC directive, did not necessarily give low emissions in real traffic situations.

  16. Climate Adaptation is About More Than Climate: Value-Driven Science Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanston, C.

    2015-12-01

    Efforts to deliver relevant scientific information and tools to diverse stakeholders have dramatically increased in recent years with the intention of promoting climate change adaptation. Much work has been done to understand the barriers to action, but these largely overlook the need to frame the discussion in terms of stakeholder values and co-create innovative solutions that meet their individual needs. A partnership-based effort in the upper Midwest and Northeast called the Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF; www.forestadaptation.org) ensures relevance, breadth, and credibility of its products through stakeholder inclusion at all levels. The fundamental role of the CCRF is to help people meet their land stewardship goals while minimizing climate risk. This represents a subtle but important shift in focus to people and their values, as opposed to climate change and its effects. The CCRF uses a climate planning tool, the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), along with ecosystem vulnerability assessments and a diverse "menu" of adaptation approaches to generate site-specific adaptation actions that meet explicit conservation objectives. These tools are integrated into an Adaptation Planning and Practices workshop that leads organizations through this structured process of designing adaptation tactics for their projects and plans. All of these tools were developed with stakeholders, or in response to their direct and continuing feedback. The CCRF has involved thousands of people and over 100 organizations, published six ecoregional vulnerability assessments with more than 130 authors, and generated more than 125 intentional adaptation demonstrations in real-world land management projects on federal, state, tribal, county, conservancy, and private lands. The CCRF contributes strongly to the USDA Regional Climate Hubs, working on the applied end of the continuum of climate services occupied by providers such as the CSCs, LCCs, RISAs, and RCCs.

  17. Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alternative energy technologies (AETs) have emerged as a solution to the challenge of simultaneously meeting rising electricity demand while reducing carbon emissions. However, as all AETs are responsible for some greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their construction, carbon emission 'Ponzi Schemes' are currently possible, wherein an AET industry expands so quickly that the GHG emissions prevented by a given technology are negated to fabricate the next wave of AET deployment. In an era where there are physical constraints to the GHG emissions the climate can sustain in the short term this may be unacceptable. To provide quantitative solutions to this problem, this paper introduces the concept of dynamic carbon life-cycle analyses, which generate carbon-neutral growth rates. These conceptual tools become increasingly important as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy by reducing fossil fuel combustion. In choosing this method of evaluation it was possible to focus uniquely on reducing carbon emissions to the recommended levels by outlining the most carbon-effective approach to climate change mitigation. The results of using dynamic life-cycle analysis provide policy makers with standardized information that will drive the optimization of electricity generation for effective climate change mitigation.

  18. Estimates of the climate response to aircraft emissions scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1998-03-01

    A combination of linear responses model is used to estimate the changes in the global means of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentration, of the surface temperature, and of the seal level due to aviation. Apart from CO{sub 2}, also the forcing by aircraft induced ozone changes is considered. The model is applied for several CO{sub 2} emission scenarios, which are based on reported fuel consumption for the past and IPCC scenarios for the future, and corresponding nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}) emissions. The aviation CO{sub 2} emissions from past until 1995 enlarged the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration by 1.4 ppmv (1.7% of the anthropogenic CO{sub 2} increase since 1800). The global mean surface temperature increased by about 0.004 K, and the sea level rose by 0.024 cm until 1995. Under the assumption that present-day aircraft induced ozone changes cause an equilibrium surface warming of 0.05 K, the transient responses amount to 0.03 K in surface temperature and 0.15 cm in sea level in 1995. In a scenario, which assumes a threefold increase in aviation fuel consumption until 2050 and an annual increase rate of 1% thereafter until 2100, the model predicts a CO{sub 2} concentration change of 13 ppmv by 2100, causing temperature increases of 0.01, 0.02, 0.05 K, and sea level increases of 0.06, 0.15, 0.34 cm in the years 2015, 2050, 2100, respectively, due to CO{sub 2} emissions alone. The radiative forcing due to aircraft induced ozone increase causes larger temperature and sea level changes than the aircraft CO{sub 2} forcing. Also, climate reacts more promptly to changes in ozone emissions than to changes in CO{sub 2} emissions from aviation. Finally, even under the assumption of a rather small equilibrium temperature change from aircraft induced ozone (0.01 K for the 1992 NO{sub x} emissions), a proposed new combustor technology which reduces specific NO{sub x} emissions causes a smaller temperature change during the next century than the standard technology does

  19. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon. PMID:26983540

  20. Monitoring Surface Climate With its Emissivity Derived From Satellite Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu

    2012-01-01

    Satellite thermal infrared (IR) spectral emissivity data have been shown to be significant for atmospheric research and monitoring the Earth fs environment. Long-term and large-scale observations needed for global monitoring and research can be supplied by satellite-based remote sensing. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity data retrieved from the last 5 years of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements observed from the MetOp-A satellite. Monthly mean surface properties (i.e., skin temperature T(sub s) and emissivity spectra epsilon(sub v) with a spatial resolution of 0.5x0.5-degrees latitude-longitude are produced to monitor seasonal and inter-annual variations. We demonstrate that surface epsilon(sub v) and T(sub s) retrieved with IASI measurements can be used to assist in monitoring surface weather and surface climate change. Surface epsilon(sub v) together with T(sub s) from current and future operational satellites can be utilized as a means of long-term and large-scale monitoring of Earth 's surface weather environment and associated changes.

  1. Impact of emissions and +2 °C climate change upon future ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Laura; Lacressonnière, Gwendoline; Gauss, Michael; Engardt, Magnuz; Andersson, Camilla; Josse, Béatrice; Marécal, Virginie; Nyiri, Agnes; Sobolowski, Stefan; Siour, Guillaume; Szopa, Sophie; Vautard, Robert

    2016-10-01

    The evolution of ozone and nitrogen dioxide over Europe between the present day and a future period with a +2 °C global warming relative to the pre-industrial climate was studied using four offline chemistry transport models, each driven by a different climate model. Given the recent outcome of the COP21 negotiations, understanding the implications of climate change around the +2 °C threshold has never been more pressing or relevant. One of the objectives of this study was to show how changes in anthropogenic emissions and +2 °C climate change are expected to affect future air quality, which may have important implications upon human health. It was found that a +2 °C climate change alone was responsible for a modest, and not statistically significant, increase in surface O3 concentrations (of between -0.1-0.8 ppb in the summer averaged over the European domain) compared to the present climate. Two different emission scenarios were used for the future time period in order to provide an estimate of the extent of air pollution reductions that could occur if (a) all currently planned air quality legislation is implemented and (b) all maximum technologically feasible emission reductions are implemented. The results showed that summer O3 could be reduced by between 4 and 5 ppb under a current legislation scenario, with at least 3 ppb of further reductions under the maximum mitigated scenario. Calculations of summer ozone enhancement were used as a metric to analyse the results after having removed background ozone level changes. In conclusion it was found that future air quality on a regional scale will depend upon the implementation of effective emission reduction policy; the positive effects of which should not be hindered by a +2 °C global warming.

  2. Optical field emission from resonant gold nanorods driven by femtosecond mid-infrared pulses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kusa, F. [Department of Applied Physics, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 2-24-16 Nakacho, Koganei Tokyo 184-8588 (Japan); Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Echternkamp, K. E.; Herink, G.; Ropers, C. [4th Physical Institute – Solids and Nanostructures, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen (Germany); Ashihara, S., E-mail: ashihara@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)

    2015-07-15

    We demonstrate strong-field photoelectron emission from gold nanorods driven by femtosecond mid-infrared optical pulses. The maximum photoelectron yield is reached at the localized surface plasmon resonance, indicating that the photoemission is governed by the resonantly-enhanced optical near-field. The wavelength- and field-dependent photoemission yield allows for a noninvasive determination of local field enhancements, and we obtain intensity enhancement factors close to 1300, in good agreement with finite-difference time domain computations.

  3. Regional Influence of Aerosol Emissions from Wildfires Driven by Combustion Efficiency: Insights from the BBOP Campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Sonya; Zhou, Shan; Onasch, Timothy B; Jaffe, Daniel A; Kleinman, Lawrence; Sedlacek, Arthur J; Briggs, Nicole L; Hee, Jonathan; Fortner, Edward; Shilling, John E; Worsnop, Douglas; Yokelson, Robert J; Parworth, Caroline; Ge, Xinlei; Xu, Jianzhong; Butterfield, Zachary; Chand, Duli; Dubey, Manvendra K; Pekour, Mikhail S; Springston, Stephen; Zhang, Qi

    2016-08-16

    Wildfires are important contributors to atmospheric aerosols and a large source of emissions that impact regional air quality and global climate. In this study, the regional and nearfield influences of wildfire emissions on ambient aerosol concentration and chemical properties in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States were studied using real-time measurements from a fixed ground site located in Central Oregon at the Mt. Bachelor Observatory (∼2700 m a.s.l.) as well as near their sources using an aircraft. The regional characteristics of biomass burning aerosols were found to depend strongly on the modified combustion efficiency (MCE), an index of the combustion processes of a fire. Organic aerosol emissions had negative correlations with MCE, whereas the oxidation state of organic aerosol increased with MCE and plume aging. The relationships between the aerosol properties and MCE were consistent between fresh emissions (∼1 h old) and emissions sampled after atmospheric transport (6-45 h), suggesting that biomass burning organic aerosol concentration and chemical properties were strongly influenced by combustion processes at the source and conserved to a significant extent during regional transport. These results suggest that MCE can be a useful metric for describing aerosol properties of wildfire emissions and their impacts on regional air quality and global climate.

  4. Regional Influence of Aerosol Emissions from Wildfires Driven by Combustion Efficiency: Insights from the BBOP Campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Sonya; Zhou, Shan; Onasch, Timothy B; Jaffe, Daniel A; Kleinman, Lawrence; Sedlacek, Arthur J; Briggs, Nicole L; Hee, Jonathan; Fortner, Edward; Shilling, John E; Worsnop, Douglas; Yokelson, Robert J; Parworth, Caroline; Ge, Xinlei; Xu, Jianzhong; Butterfield, Zachary; Chand, Duli; Dubey, Manvendra K; Pekour, Mikhail S; Springston, Stephen; Zhang, Qi

    2016-08-16

    Wildfires are important contributors to atmospheric aerosols and a large source of emissions that impact regional air quality and global climate. In this study, the regional and nearfield influences of wildfire emissions on ambient aerosol concentration and chemical properties in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States were studied using real-time measurements from a fixed ground site located in Central Oregon at the Mt. Bachelor Observatory (∼2700 m a.s.l.) as well as near their sources using an aircraft. The regional characteristics of biomass burning aerosols were found to depend strongly on the modified combustion efficiency (MCE), an index of the combustion processes of a fire. Organic aerosol emissions had negative correlations with MCE, whereas the oxidation state of organic aerosol increased with MCE and plume aging. The relationships between the aerosol properties and MCE were consistent between fresh emissions (∼1 h old) and emissions sampled after atmospheric transport (6-45 h), suggesting that biomass burning organic aerosol concentration and chemical properties were strongly influenced by combustion processes at the source and conserved to a significant extent during regional transport. These results suggest that MCE can be a useful metric for describing aerosol properties of wildfire emissions and their impacts on regional air quality and global climate. PMID:27398804

  5. Evidence for climate-driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Joyce J L; Rountrey, Adam N; Zinke, Jens; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Grierson, Pauline F; O'Donnell, Alison J; Newman, Stephen J; Lough, Janice M; Trougan, Mélissa; Meekan, Mark G

    2016-08-01

    The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long-term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate-driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO-driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Niño-4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Niña years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree-ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation

  6. Tropically-driven climate shifts in southwestern Europe during MIS 19, a low eccentricity interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Goñi, M. F.; Rodrigues, T.; Hodell, D. A.; Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Alonso-García, M.; Hernández-Almeida, I.; Desprat, S.; Ferretti, P.

    2016-08-01

    The relative roles of high- versus low-latitude forcing of millennial-scale climate variability are still not well understood. Here we present terrestrial-marine climate profiles from the southwestern Iberian margin, a region particularly affected by precession, that show millennial climate oscillations related to a nonlinear response to the Earth's precession cycle during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19. MIS 19 has been considered the best analogue to our present interglacial from an astronomical point of view due to the reduced eccentricity centred at 785 ka. In our records, seven millennial-scale forest contractions punctuated MIS 19 superimposed to two orbitally-driven Mediterranean forest expansions. In contrast to our present interglacial, we evidence for the first time low latitude-driven 5000-yr cycles of drying and cooling in the western Mediterranean region, along with warmth in the subtropical gyre related to the fourth harmonic of precession. These cycles indicate repeated intensification of North Atlantic meridional moisture transport that along with decrease in boreal summer insolation triggered ice growth and may have contributed to the glacial inception, at ∼774 ka. The freshwater fluxes during MIS 19ab amplified the cooling events in the North Atlantic promoting further cooling and leading to MIS 18 glaciation. The discrepancy between the dominant cyclicity observed during MIS 1, 2500-yr, and that of MIS 19, 5000-yr, challenges the similar duration of the Holocene and MIS 19c interglacials under natural boundary conditions.

  7. Climate-driven sympatry may not lead to foraging competition between congeneric top-predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, Megan A; Moline, Mark A; Fraser, William R; Patterson-Fraser, Donna L; Oliver, Matthew J

    2016-01-01

    Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. On fine scales, we tested for foraging competition between these species during the chick-rearing period by comparing their foraging behaviors with the distribution of their prey, Antarctic krill. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguins, and found that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. In overlapping Adélie and gentoo penguin foraging areas, four gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion of Adélie penguins by gentoo penguins. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is one of the major drivers of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories. PMID:26732496

  8. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  9. Sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrification significantly reduces N2O emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weiming; Zhao, Qing; Lu, Hui; Ding, Zhi; Meng, Liao; Chen, Guang-Hao

    2016-03-01

    The Sulfate reduction-Autotrophic denitrification-Nitrification Integrated (SANI) process build on anaerobic carbon conversion through biological sulfate reduction and autotrophic denitrification by using the sulfide byproduct from the previous reaction. This study confirmed extra decreases in N2O emissions from the sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrification by investigating N2O reduction, accumulation, and emission in the presence of different sulfide/nitrate (S/N) mass ratios at pH 7 in a long-term laboratory-scale granular sludge autotrophic denitrification reactor. The N2O reduction rate was linearly proportional to the sulfide concentration, which confirmed that no sulfide inhibition of N2O reductase occurred. At S/N = 5.0 g-S/g-N, this rate resulted by sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrifying granular sludge (average granule size = 701 μm) was 27.7 mg-N/g-VSS/h (i.e., 2 and 4 times greater than those at 2.5 and 0.8 g-S/g-N, respectively). Sulfide actually stimulates rather than inhibits N2O reduction no matter what granule size of sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrifying sludge engaged. The accumulations of N2O, nitrite and free nitrous acid (FNA) with average granule size 701 μm of sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrifying granular sludge engaged at S/N = 5.0 g-S/g-N were 4.7%, 11.4% and 4.2% relative to those at 3.0 g-S/g-N, respectively. The accumulation of FNA can inhibit N2O reduction and increase N2O accumulation during sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrification. In addition, the N2O gas emission level from the reactor significantly increased from 14.1 ± 0.5 ppmv (0.002% of the N load) to 3707.4 ± 36.7 ppmv (0.405% of the N load) as the S/N mass ratio in the influent decreased from 2.1 to 1.4 g-S/g-N over the course of the 120-day continuous monitoring period. Sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrification may significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from biological nutrient removal when sulfur conversion processes are applied. PMID

  10. How phosphorus limitation can control climatic gas emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gypens, Nathalie; Borges, Alberto V.; Speeckaert, Gaelle; Ghyoot, Caroline

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic activities severely increased river nutrient [nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P)] loads to European coastal areas. However, specific nutrient reduction policies implemented since the late 1990's have considerably reduced P loads, while N is maintained. In the Southern North Sea, the resulting N: P: Si imbalance (compared to phytoplankton requirements) stimulated the growth of Phaeocystis colonies modifying the functioning of the ecosystem and, therefore, the carbon cycle but also the biogenic sulphur cycle, Phaeocystis being a significant producer of DMSP (dimethylsulphide propionate), the precursor of dimethylsulfide (DMS). In this application, the mechanistic MIRO-BIOGAS model is used to investigate the effects of changing N and P loads on ecosystem structure and their impact on DMS and CO2 emissions. In particular, competition for P between phytoplankton groups (diatoms vs Phaeocystis colonies) but also between phytoplankton and bacteria is explored. The ability of autotroph and heterotroph organism to use dissolved organic phosphorus (DOP) as P nutrient source is also explored and its effect on climatic gas emission estimated. Simulations were done from 1950 to 2010 and different nutrient limiting conditions are analyzed.

  11. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  12. Climate protection and emission trading in the agriculture; Klimaschutz und Emissionshandel in der Landwirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luenenbuerger, Benjamin

    2013-01-15

    The percentage of the agriculture in the greenhouse-gas emissions in Germany amounts 7.1% in the year 2010. Despite its importance, climate protection instruments in the area of the German agriculture are still not developed. There are hardly special regulatory, informational or market-based instruments for the climate protection in the agriculture. The question arises whether the emission trading can be a suitable instrument for climate protection in the agriculture. Thus, the opportunities of the emission trading in the agriculture are investigated. Moreover, alternative and additional instruments of climate protection are considered with respect to the agriculture.

  13. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari S Myksvoll

    Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  14. Very high energy emission of Crab-like pulsars driven by the Cherenkov drift radiation

    CERN Document Server

    Osmanov, Z

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we study the generation of very high energy (VHE) emission in Crab-like pulsars driven by means of the feedback of Cherenkov drift waves on distribution of magnetospheric electrons. We have found that the unstable Cherenkov drift modes lead to the quasi-linear diffusion (QLD), keeping the pitch angles from vanishing, which in turn, maintains the synchrotron mechanism. Considering the Crab-like pulsars it has been shown that the growth rate of the Cherenkov drift instability (ChDI) is quite high, indicating high efficiency of the process. Analyzing the mechanism for the typical parameters we have found that the Cherenkov drift emission from the extreme UV to hard $X$-rays is strongly correlated with the VHE synchrotron emission in the GeV band.

  15. Etude Climat no. 33 'Joint Implementation: a frontier mechanism within the borders of an emissions cap'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: Based on specific projects rather than economy-wide emissions reductions, and driven by the demand from the installations covered by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), Joint Implementation (JI) turned out to be a largely private sector mechanism. Besides attracting private investors in GHG abatement projects, JI creates an opportunity for countries to exploit the arbitrage price spread between different carbon offsets: Emission Reduction Units (ERU), the credits issued from JI projects, trade with a premium of up to 50% over Assigned Amount Units (AAU), the country-level carbon allowances. Some countries, like for instance Ukraine, quickly realized the added value of JI and boosted its development, while in others, like Russia, JI lacked political support and efficient frameworks took time to be established. According to the ERU supply forecasting model developed by CDC Climat Research, Annex I countries are expected to generate up to 356 million ERUs for the first Kyoto commitment period. Around 80% of these credits shall originate from Russia and Ukraine, and up to 70 million shall be generated from countries participating in the EU ETS. Within the EU, JI has been used as a 'frontier mechanism': JI projects mostly explored abatement opportunities not covered by the scheme and, as highlighted by the case of nitrous oxide emissions from the production of nitric acid, played an important role in identifying abatement technologies and providing information to extend the scope of the EU ETS. One of the most complex issues related to JI is the practice of additionality. The cases of France and Ukraine demonstrate that the stakes associated with additionality may differ depending on a country's compliance position. In Ukraine, additionality was not perceived as a significant economic risk due to a

  16. Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region Driven by Three Global Data Sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Shiyuan (Sharon); Li, Xiuping; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Gustafson, William I.

    2012-06-27

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990–1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperatures derived from the NCEP Global Reanalysis and output from the CCSM3 and GISS general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results are compared to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The three RCM simulations appeared to be more accurate in winter and least accurate in summer, and more accurate aloft than near the surface. The reanalysis-constrained simulation adequately captured the spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the observed surface-air temperature and precipitation, but it produced consistently across all seasons a cold bias that is generally larger over the lakes than over land and a wet bias due to an overestimation of nonconvective precipitation. The simulated seasonal cycle of moisture–flux convergence over the region was in very good agreement with NARR. The two GCM-driven runs adequately simulated the spatial and seasonal variation of temperature, but overestimated cold-season precipitation and underestimated summer precipitation, reversing the observed annual precipitation cycle. The GISS-driven run failed to simulate the prevailing low-level flow and moisture convergence patterns. All three RCM simulations successfully captured the impact of the Great Lakes on the region's climate, especially on winter precipitation, a significant improvement over coarse-resolution GCM simulations over the region.

  17. Theropod fauna from southern Australia indicates high polar diversity and climate-driven dinosaur provinciality.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger B J Benson

    the hallmark 'Gondwanan' fauna of South America and Africa may therefore reflect climate-driven provinciality, not vicariant evolution driven by continental fragmentation. However, vicariance may still be detected at lower phylogenetic levels.

  18. Theropod fauna from southern Australia indicates high polar diversity and climate-driven dinosaur provinciality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Roger B J; Rich, Thomas H; Vickers-Rich, Patricia; Hall, Mike

    2012-01-01

    'Gondwanan' fauna of South America and Africa may therefore reflect climate-driven provinciality, not vicariant evolution driven by continental fragmentation. However, vicariance may still be detected at lower phylogenetic levels.

  19. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979–2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J. -F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979–2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation

  20. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J.-F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-05-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual

  1. Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuzhong; Wang, Yuhang

    2016-09-01

    Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades (1980-2010). Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management.

  2. Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuzhong; Wang, Yuhang

    2016-09-01

    Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades (1980-2010). Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management. PMID:27551089

  3. Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuhang

    2016-01-01

    Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades (1980–2010). Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management. PMID:27551089

  4. Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs)

    OpenAIRE

    Wajeeha Malik; Hajra Shahid; Rabeea Zafar; Zaheer Uddin; Zafar Wazir; Zubair Anwar; Jabar Zaman Khan Khattak; Syed Shahid Ali

    2012-01-01

    The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to ...

  5. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Glenn Althor; Watson, James E. M.; Fuller, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth’s atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries’ GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we...

  6. Monitoring strategies of stream phosphorus under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goyenola, G.; Meerhoff, M.; Teixeira-de Mello, F.; González-Bergonzoni, I.; Graeber, D.; Fosalba, C.; Vidal, N.; Mazzeo, N.; Ovesen, N. B.; Jeppesen, E.; Kronvang, B.

    2015-10-01

    Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from land to downstream aquatic systems, in particular of phosphorus (P) from agricultural lands. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the differences in P export patterns and the performance of alternative monitoring strategies in streams under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes. We compared a set of paired streams draining lowland micro-catchments under temperate climate and stable discharge conditions (Denmark) and under sub-tropical climate and flashy conditions (Uruguay). We applied two alternative nutrient sampling programs (high-frequency composite sampling and low-frequency instantaneous-grab sampling) and estimated the contribution derived from point and diffuse sources fitting a source apportionment model. We expected to detect a pattern of higher total and particulate phosphorus export from diffuse sources in streams in Uruguay streams, mostly as a consequence of higher variability in flow regime (higher flashiness). Contrarily, we found a higher contribution of dissolved P in flashy streams. We did not find a notably poorer performance of the low-frequency sampling program to estimate P exports in flashy streams compared to the less variable streams. We also found signs of interaction between climate/hydrology and land use intensity, in particular in the presence of point sources of P, leading to a bias towards underestimation of P in hydrologically stable streams and overestimation of P in flashy streams. Based on our findings, we suggest that the evaluation and use of more accurate monitoring methods, such as automatized flow-proportional water samplers and automatized bankside analyzers, should be prioritized whenever logistically possible. However, it seems particularly relevant in currently flashy systems and also in systems where climate change predictions suggest an increase in stream flashiness.

  7. Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

    OpenAIRE

    Sudakov, I. A.; S. A. Vakulenko

    2012-01-01

    The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedback coefficient conn...

  8. Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

    OpenAIRE

    Sudakov, I. A.; S. A. Vakulenko

    2012-01-01

    The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedbac...

  9. Thermal emissions and climate change: Cooler options for future energy technology

    OpenAIRE

    Cowern, Nick E. B.; Ahn, Chihak

    2008-01-01

    Global warming arises from 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the climate system and arising within it. Humanity introduces temperature forcing through greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture, and thermal emissions from fuel burning. Up to now climate projections, neglecting thermal emissions, typically foresee maximum forcing around the year 2050, followed by a decline. In this paper we show that, if humanity's energy use grows at 1%/year, slower ...

  10. The implications of China’s investment-driven economy on its energy consumption and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The energy implications of China’s investment-driven (ID) economy are analyzed. • An expenditure-approach-based framework is applied to define the ID energy consumption. • An input–output model is built to identify the volume of China’s ID energy consumption. • Insights are gained for determining the saving potentials of China’s ID energy consumption. - Abstract: In this paper, we aim to fill the research gap by analyzing the relationship between China’s domestic investment and energy consumption, as well as related carbon emissions. First, we use an expenditure-approach-based framework to qualitatively examine the effects of China’s domestic investment on its energy consumption. Based on this framework, we define and differentiate the investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions from that which is driven by other economic activities. Second, we establish an allocation model to quantify China’s investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results reveal that in 2007, China’s domestic investment contributed one third of both its energy consumption and carbon emissions. Further results show that a majority of this investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions, namely nine tenths of the total, is attributable to the construction and manufacturing sectors. Finally, we use the construction sector as a case to discuss how to determine the energy-saving and emission-reduction potential of improving investment-driven energy consumption practices

  11. Is Cyclotron Maser Emission in Solar Flares Driven by a Horseshoe Distribution?

    CERN Document Server

    Melrose, D B

    2016-01-01

    Since the early 1980s, decimetric spike bursts have been attributed to electron cyclotron maser emission (ECME) by the electrons that produce hard X-ray bursts as they precipitate into the chromosphere in the impulsive phase of a solar flare. Spike bursts are regarded as analogous to the auroral kilometric radiation (AKR), which is associated with the precipitation of auroral electrons in a geomagnetic substorm. Originally, a loss-cone-driven version of ECME, developed for AKR, was applied to spike bursts, but it is now widely accepted that a different, horseshoe-driven, version of EMCE applies to AKR. We explore the implications of the assumption that horseshoe-driven ECME also applies to spike bursts. We develop a 1D model for the acceleration of the electrons by a parallel electric field, and show that under plausible assumptions it leads to a horseshoe distribution of electrons in a solar flare. A second requirement for horseshoe-driven ECME is an extremely low plasma density, referred to as a density cav...

  12. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

  13. Multiple evolutionary origins of Australian soil-burrowing cockroaches driven by climate change in the Neogene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Nathan; Tong, K Jun; Rose, Harley A; Ho, Simon Y W; Beninati, Tiziana; Low, David L T; Matsumoto, Tadao; Maekawa, Kiyoto

    2016-02-24

    Parallel evolution is the independent appearance of similar derived phenotypes from similar ancestral forms. It is of key importance in the debate over whether evolution is stochastic and unpredictable, or subject to constraints that limit available phenotypic options. Nevertheless, its occurrence has rarely been demonstrated above the species level. Climate change on the Australian landmass over the last approximately 20 Myr has provided conditions conducive to parallel evolution, as taxa at the edges of shrinking mesic habitats adapted to drier biomes. Here, we investigate the phylogeny and evolution of Australian soil-burrowing and wood-feeding blaberid cockroaches. Soil burrowers (subfamily Geoscapheinae) are found in relatively dry sclerophyllous and scrubland habits, whereas wood feeders (subfamily Panesthiinae) are found in rainforest and wet sclerophyll. We sequenced and analysed mitochondrial and nuclear markers from 142 specimens, and estimated the evolutionary time scale of the two subfamilies. We found evidence for the parallel evolution of soil-burrowing taxa from wood-feeding ancestors on up to nine occasions. These transitions appear to have been driven by periods of aridification during the Miocene and Pliocene across eastern Australia. Our results provide an illuminating example of climate-driven parallel evolution among species. PMID:26888035

  14. Impact of climate change on snow melt driven runoff timing over the Alpine region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppola, Erika; Raffaele, Francesca; Giorgi, Filippo

    2016-08-01

    We investigate the climate change impact on snowmelt-driven runoff (SDR) over the Alpine region using the output from two Med-CORDEX and two EURO-CORDEX regional climate model projections (RCP8.5 scenario) at two resolutions (12, 50 km) driven by a sub-set of the CMIP5 GCMs. Comparison with the European Water Archive observed runoff dataset (242 stations) over the Alps shows a good performance by the higher resolution models in representing present day SDR, with the lower resolution simulations being less accurate in capturing the SDR timing. In the future projections all the models show a temperature increase of up to 4° by the end of the 21st century throughout the Alps and this leads to an anticipation of SDR timing throughout the year that can span from 1 to 3 months depending on the model horizontal resolution. These timing changes are associated with changes in snow cover modulated by the complex Alpine topography. In fact, model resolution plays a critical role in regulating the magnitude, timing and spatial distribution of the response of snow cover and SDR to warming. We find that the accurate simulation of changes in runoff timing requires a high resolution representation of the Alpine topography, and can be important for water storage regulations concerning energy production, agriculture and domestic use.

  15. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender [Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina (RS); Kabashi, Gazmend [Faculty of Electric Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina (RS); Najdovski, Dimitrij [X3DATA, Novi trg 6, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Zidansek, Aleksander [Jozef Stefan Institute and Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Slaus, Ivo [R. Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka 54, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, NO{sub x}, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO{sub 2}, dust CH{sub x}, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible. (author)

  16. A kernel-driven model of effective directional emissivity fornon-isothermal surfaces

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2002-01-01

    Land surface temperature (LST) is a key geophysical parameter that reflects the combined effects of land surface energy and radiation balance. Remote sensing of LST, however, requires understanding the directional patterns of thermal emission from heterogeneous land surfaces. Recently, semi-empirical, linear, kernel-driven models have been successfully used to describe observed directional patterns of land surface reflectance. Following a similar methodology and based on a recent model of the physics of directional thermal emission from heterogeneous land surfaces, a kernel-driven semi-empirical model for thermal emission is developed using three kernels: (i) an isotropic kernel, corresponding to the gray-body component in a heterogeneous pixel; (ii) a two-layer canopy kernel, derived from a previous conceptual model; and (iii) a geometric optical kernel that accounts for the fact that sunlit parts are hotter than shaded parts in a pixel. The three-kernel model fits 1997 airborne directional thermal brightness data over Avignon, France, very well.

  17. Microwave emission from an AXIAL-Virtual Cathode Oscillator driven by a compact pulsed power source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, R.; Sharma, S. K.; Banerjee, P.; Deb, P.; Prabaharan, T.; Das, R.; Kdas, B.; Adhikary, B.; Verma, R.; Shyam, A.

    2012-11-01

    For the generation of microwaves, Electron beam devices operating in vacuum are most widely used. For pulsed and high power microwave generation, Virtual cathode oscillators (VIRCATORs) are said to be simple in operation and construction. They are generally driven by a pulsed power source which gives high input powers to the Vircator connected as load. Vircator, depending upon its efficiency, converts the electrical input power to the microwave power. We are presenting the results of an axial Vircator operating in 2×10-4 mbar vacuum and is driven by a compact pulsed power source. The energy source and pulse compression is realized in very user friendly approach to run the system. The radiating system presently runs at relatively low powers but has the scope of reaching to high power by a logical improvement. A study of effect of collapsing diode impedance, of the vacuum field emission diode of the Vircator, on the microwave emission is presented in the paper. We are also presenting the microwave emission measurement conducted in the given system. Effect of vacuum is also studied to the extent of present experimental limits.

  18. Microwave emission from an AXIAL-Virtual Cathode Oscillator driven by a compact pulsed power source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the generation of microwaves, Electron beam devices operating in vacuum are most widely used. For pulsed and high power microwave generation, Virtual cathode oscillators (VIRCATORs) are said to be simple in operation and construction. They are generally driven by a pulsed power source which gives high input powers to the Vircator connected as load. Vircator, depending upon its efficiency, converts the electrical input power to the microwave power. We are presenting the results of an axial Vircator operating in 2×10−4 mbar vacuum and is driven by a compact pulsed power source. The energy source and pulse compression is realized in very user friendly approach to run the system. The radiating system presently runs at relatively low powers but has the scope of reaching to high power by a logical improvement. A study of effect of collapsing diode impedance, of the vacuum field emission diode of the Vircator, on the microwave emission is presented in the paper. We are also presenting the microwave emission measurement conducted in the given system. Effect of vacuum is also studied to the extent of present experimental limits.

  19. Projected effect of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on aerosol levels in China and associated transboundary transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Jiang

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS general circulation model (GCM 3 at 4° × 5° resolution. Future changes in climate and emissions projected by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together through sensitivity simulations. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC aerosols, concentrations of individual aerosol species change by −2.3 to +1.7 μg m−3 and PM2.5 levels are projected to change by about 10–20% in eastern China as a result of 2000–2050 change in climate alone. With future changes in anthropogenic emissions alone, concentrations of sulfate, BC, and OC are simulated to decrease because of reductions in emissions, and those of nitrate are predicted to increase because of higher NOx emissions combined with decreases in sulfate. The net result is a reduction of seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China by 2–9.5 μg m−3 (or 10–30% over 2000–2050. It is noted that current emission inventories for BC and OC over China are found to be inadequate at present. Transboundary fluxes of different aerosol species show different sensitivities to future changes in climate and emissions. The annual outflow of PM2.5 from eastern China to the western Pacific is estimated to change by −6.0%, −1.5%, and −9.0% over 2000–2050 owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. The fluxes of nitrate and ammonium aerosols from Europe and Central Asia into western China increase over 2000–2050 by changes in emissions, leading to a 15% increase in annual inflow of PM2.5 to western China with future changes in both emissions and climate. Fluxes of BC and OC from South Asia to China in spring contribute to a large

  20. Data-driven dissection of emission-line regions in Seyfert galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Villarroel, Beatriz

    2016-01-01

    Indirectly resolving the line-emitting gas regions in distant Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) requires both high-resolution photometry and spectroscopy (i.e. through reverberation mapping). Emission in AGN originates on widely different scales; the broad-line region (BLR) has a typical radius less than a few parsec, the narrow-line region (NLR) extends out to hundreds of parsecs. But emission also appears on large scales from heated nebulae in the host galaxies (tenths of kpc). We propose a novel, data-driven method based on correlations between emission-line fluxes to identify which of the emission lines are produced in the same kind of emission-line regions. We test the method on Seyfert galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 (DR7) and Galaxy Zoo project. We demonstrate the usefulness of the method on Seyfert-1s and Seyfert-2 objects, showing similar narrow-line regions (NLRs). Preliminary results from comparing Seyfert-2s in spiral and elliptical galaxy hosts suggest that the presenc...

  1. Field emission driven direct current argon discharges and electrical breakdown mechanism across micron scale gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matejčik, Štefan; Radjenović, Branislav; Klas, Matej; Radmilović-Radjenović, Marija

    2015-11-01

    In this paper results of the experimental and theoretical studies of the field emission driven direct current argon microdischarges for the gaps between 1 μm and 100 μm are presented and discussed. The breakdown voltage curves and Volt-Ampere characteristics proved to be a fertile basis providing better understanding of the breakdown phenomena in microgaps. Based on the measured breakdown voltage curves, the effective yields have been estimated confirming that the secondary electron emission due to high electric field generated in microgaps depends primarily on the electric field leading directly to the violation of the Paschen's law. Experimental data are supported by the theoretical predictions that suggest departure from the scaling law and a flattening of the Paschen curves at higher pressures confirming that Townsend phenomenology breaks down when field emission becomes the key mechanism leading to the breakdown. Field emission of electrons from the cathode, the space charge effects in the breakdown and distinction between the Fowler-Nordheim field emission and the space charge limited current density are also analyzed. Images and Volt-Ampere characteristics recorded at the electrode gap size of 20 μm indicate the existence of a discharge region similar to arc at the pressure of around 200 Torr has been observed. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Recent Breakthroughs in Microplasma Science and Technology", edited by Kurt Becker, Jose Lopez, David Staack, Klaus-Dieter Weltmann and Wei Dong Zhu.

  2. Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

    2013-09-01

    Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our

  3. Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

    2014-12-01

    The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the

  4. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012: impact of climate and land use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J.-F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2013-11-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. This study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms hold a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of two) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a~factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trend in the emissions. An annual positive flux trend of 0.2% and 0.52% is found in Asia and China, respectively, through the entire period, related to positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g. from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979-2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (-0.4%), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated to the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are evaluated

  5. Charge-exchange-driven X-ray emission from highly ionized plasma jets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosmej, F.B. [Universite de Provence et CNRS UMR 6633, Centre de St Jerome, 13 - Marseille (France); Lisitsa, V.S. [Russian Research Center Kurchatov, Moscow (Russian Federation); Schott, R.; Dalimier, E. [Paris-6 Univ., 75 - Paris (France); Schott, R.; Dalimier, E. [Ecole Polytechnique, LULI, 91 - Palaiseau (France); Riley, D.; Delserieys, A. [Queens Univ., Belfast (United Kingdom); Renner, O.; Krousky, E. [Institute of Physics, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2006-12-15

    The interaction of highly ionized laser-produced plasma jets with gases has been studied with X-ray microscopic methods. Simultaneous high spectral and 2-dimensional spatial resolution provided a detailed topological structure of the counter-propagating plasma and discovered a gas pressure-dependent X-ray emission structure inside the jets of H-like and He-like aluminum ions. At larger distances from the target, anomalous high (3 orders of magnitude) intensities of Li-like intercombination transitions from double excited states have been identified. Charge-exchange-driven cascading in autoionizing states is proposed to explain the experimental findings. (authors)

  6. Uncertainty quantification and propagation in a complex human-environment system driven by fire and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terando, A. J.; Reich, B. J.; Pacifici, K.

    2013-12-01

    Fire is an important disturbance process in many coupled natural-human systems. Changes in the frequency and severity of fires due to anthropogenic climate change could have significant costs to society and the plant and animal communities that are adapted to a particular fire regime Planning for these changes requires a robust model of the relationship between climate and fire that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty that are present when simulating ecological and climatological processes. Here we model how anthropogenic climate change could affect the wildfire regime for a region in the Southeast US whose natural ecosystems are dependent on frequent, low-intensity fires while humans are at risk from large catastrophic fires. We develop a modeling framework that incorporates three major sources of uncertainty: (1) uncertainty in the ecological drivers of expected monthly area burned, (2) uncertainty in the environmental drivers influencing the probability of an extreme fire event, and (3) structural uncertainty in different downscaled climate models. In addition we use two policy-relevant emission scenarios (climate stabilization and 'business-as-usual') to characterize the uncertainty in future greenhouse gas forcings. We use a Bayesian framework to incorporate different sources of uncertainty including simulation of predictive errors and Stochastic Search Variable Selection. Our results suggest that although the mean process remains stationary, the probability of extreme fires declines through time, owing to the persistence of high atmospheric moisture content during the peak fire season that dampens the effect of increasing temperatures. Including multiple sources of uncertainty leads to wide prediction intervals, but is potentially more useful for decision-makers that will require adaptation strategies that are robust to rapid but uncertain climate and ecological change.

  7. Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Arblaster, Julie M.; Bitz, Cecilia M.; Chung, Christine T. Y.; Teng, Haiyan

    2016-08-01

    Antarctic sea-ice extent has been slowly increasing in the satellite record that began in 1979. Since the late 1990s, the increase has accelerated, but the average of all climate models shows a decline. Meanwhile, the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, an internally generated mode of climate variability, transitioned from positive to negative, with an average cooling of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures, a slowdown of the global warming trend and a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low near Antarctica that has contributed to regional circulation changes in the Ross Sea region and expansion of sea ice. Here we show that the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in global coupled climate models is characterized by anomalies similar to the observed sea-level pressure and near-surface 850 hPa wind changes near Antarctica since 2000 that are conducive to expanding Antarctic sea-ice extent, particularly in the Ross Sea region in all seasons, involving a deepening of the Amundsen Sea Low. These atmospheric circulation changes are shown to be mainly driven by precipitation and convective heating anomalies related to the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in the equatorial eastern Pacific, with additional contributions from convective heating anomalies in the South Pacific convergence zone and tropical Atlantic regions.

  8. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlgren, Johan P; Bengtsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models. The population projection models accurately captured observed fluctuations in population size. Our analyses suggested the population was intrinsically regulated but with annual fluctuations in response to variation in weather. Simulations showed that implicitly assuming variation in demographic rates to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses to environmental changes. PMID:27220206

  9. Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH4. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO2, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NOx and SO2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

  10. Climate-driven spatial mismatches between British orchards and their pollinators: increased risks of pollination deficits.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polce, Chiara; Garratt, Michael P; Termansen, Mette; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Challinor, Andrew J; Lappage, Martin G; Boatman, Nigel D; Crowe, Andrew; Endalew, Ayenew Melese; Potts, Simon G; Somerwill, Kate E; Biesmeijer, Jacobus C

    2014-09-01

    Understanding how climate change can affect crop-pollinator systems helps predict potential geographical mismatches between a crop and its pollinators, and therefore identify areas vulnerable to loss of pollination services. We examined the distribution of orchard species (apples, pears, plums and other top fruits) and their pollinators in Great Britain, for present and future climatic conditions projected for 2050 under the SRES A1B Emissions Scenario. We used a relative index of pollinator availability as a proxy for pollination service. At present, there is a large spatial overlap between orchards and their pollinators, but predictions for 2050 revealed that the most suitable areas for orchards corresponded to low pollinator availability. However, we found that pollinator availability may persist in areas currently used for fruit production, which are predicted to provide suboptimal environmental suitability for orchard species in the future. Our results may be used to identify mitigation options to safeguard orchard production against the risk of pollination failure in Great Britain over the next 50 years; for instance, choosing fruit tree varieties that are adapted to future climatic conditions, or boosting wild pollinators through improving landscape resources. Our approach can be readily applied to other regions and crop systems, and expanded to include different climatic scenarios.

  11. International Experiences and Frameworks to Support Country-Driven Low-Emissions Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benioff, R.; Cochran, J.; Cox, S.

    2012-08-01

    Countries can use low-emission development strategies (LEDS) to advance sustainable development, promote private-sector growth, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes a framework -- or support infrastructure -- to enable the efficient exchange of LEDS-related knowledge and technical assistance. Under the proposed framework, countries share LEDS-related resources via coordinating forums, 'knowledge platforms,' and networks of experts and investors. The virtual 'knowledge platforms' foster learning by allowing countries to communicate with each other and share technical reports, data, and analysis tools in support of LEDS development. Investing in all elements of the framework in an integrated fashion increases the efficacy of support for country-driven LEDS.

  12. Field emission device driven by self-powered contact-electrification: Simulation and experimental analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Xiangyu, E-mail: chenxiangyu@binn.cas.cn, E-mail: ouyangwei@phy.ecnu.edu.cn; Jiang, Tao [Beijing Institute of Nanoenergy and Nanosystems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Sun, Zhuo; Ou-Yang, Wei, E-mail: chenxiangyu@binn.cas.cn, E-mail: ouyangwei@phy.ecnu.edu.cn [Engineering Research Center for Nanophotonics and Advanced Instrument, Ministry of Education, Department of Physics, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062 (China)

    2015-09-14

    A self-powered field emission device (FED) driven by a single-electrode tribo-electric nanogenerator (TENG) is demonstrated. The mechanical motion works as both a power supply to drive the FED and a control unit to regulate the amount of emitted electrons. By using the Fowler-Nordheim equation and Kirchhoff laws, a theoretical model of this self-powered FED is proposed, and accordingly the real-time output characteristics of the device are systematically investigated. It is found that the motion distance of the TENG controls switch-on of the FED and determines the charge amount for emission, while the motion velocity regulates the amplitude of emission current. The minimum contact area for the TENG to generate field emission is about 9 cm{sup 2}, which can be improved by optimizing FED structure and the tribo-materials of TENG. The demonstrated concept of this self-powered FED as well as the proposed physical analysis can serve as guidance for further applications of FED in such fields of self-powered electronics and soft electronics.

  13. Variations in mid-ocean ridge CO2 emissions driven by glacial cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Burley, Jonathan M A

    2015-01-01

    The geological record shows links between glacial cycles and volcanic productivity, both subaerially and at mid-ocean ridges. Sea-level-driven pressure changes could also affect chemical properties of mid-ocean ridge volcanism. We consider how changing sea-level could alter the \\cotwo{} emissions rate from mid-ocean ridges, on both the segment and global scale. We develop a simplified transport model for a highly incompatible element through a homogenous mantle; variations in the melt concentration the emission rate of the element are created by changes in the depth of first silicate melting. The model predicts an average global mid-ocean ridge \\cotwo{} emissions-rate of $53$~Mt/yr, in line with other estimates. We show that falling sea level would cause an increase in ridge \\cotwo{} emissions with a lag of about $100$~kyrs after the causative sea level change. The lag and amplitude of the response are sensitive to mantle permeability and plate spreading rate. For a reconstructed sea-level time series of the ...

  14. Climate-driven habitat size determines the latitudinal diversity gradient in temporary ponds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneitel, Jamie M

    2016-04-01

    The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) has been one of the most documented patterns in ecology, typically showing decreasing species diversity with increasing latitude. Studies of these patterns also used different spatial scales and dispersal traits to better understand the underpinning ecological factors. Seasonal freshwater ecosystems are less studied and may exhibit different patterns because they are more sensitive to climatic variation, which result in an inundation-desiccation cycle. In California, precipitation increases and temperature decreases with increasing latitude and thus the LDG pattern may be associated with this climatic gradient. Using collected data and United States Fish and Wildlife Service reports across seven degrees of latitude, analysis of California vernal pool invertebrate community (total richness and richness of passive and active dispersers) was conducted using correlations (Spearman rank and partial). Alpha diversity (total and passive dispersers) increased and beta diversity (passive dispersers) decreased with increasing latitude. Vernal pool surface area was correlated with active disperser alpha and passive disperser beta diversity. This suggests that climate-driven habitat size influences alpha and beta diversity patterns depending on dispersal ability. Active dispersers and predators exhibited higher beta diversity than passive dispersers and prey, respectively. Species composition differed among counties and some of these differences were correlated with pool depth and temperature. These results suggest that seasonal habitats will have diversity patterns strongly associated with local scale characteristics (habitat size and hydroperiod) determined by climate variation along the latitudinal gradient. Understanding these diversity patterns along the gradient will also contribute to management and restoration of these ecosystems with high endemism and diversity. PMID:27220212

  15. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althor, Glenn; Watson, James E. M.; Fuller, Richard A.

    2016-02-01

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth’s atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries’ GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.

  16. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althor, Glenn; Watson, James E M; Fuller, Richard A

    2016-01-01

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth's atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries' GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.

  17. θ Car: X-ray Emission from Low Density Radiation-Driven Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle (Mizusawa), Trisha; Petit, Veronique; Held Cohen, David; Fullerton, Alexander W.; Gagne, Marc; Leutenegger, Maurice A.; Li, Zequn; Owocki, Stanley P.; Sundqvist, Jon; Wade, Gregg

    2016-01-01

    We present Chandra X-ray grating spectroscopy (and IUE spectroscopy) of the B0.2 V star, θ Carina. θ Car is in a critical transition region between the earliest B stars and the latest O stars, where the density of the wind is observed to decrease more than theoretically expected. In general, X-ray emission in this low-density wind regime should be less prominent, but observations have shown that there is a higher than expected production of X-ray emission from the winds of these stars; this severely challenges predictions of radiatively driven wind theory. We measure the f/i ratio, widths, and velocities of several Helium-like lines in the X-ray spectrum. The f/i ratio is a diagnostic of the radial location of the X-ray emitting plasma, which is sensitive to the specific transition of each He-like ion. We use θ Car to study the radiatively-driven mass-loss of early B-type stars.

  18. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

    OpenAIRE

    Mario Liebergesell; Björn Reu; Ulrike Stahl; Martin Freiberg; Erik Welk; Jens Kattge; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Josep Peñuelas; Christian Wirth

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 trait...

  19. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environment...

  20. Climate-driven expansion of blanket bogs in Britain during the Holocene

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Gallego-Sala

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Blanket bog occupies approximately 6 % of the area of the UK today. The Holocene expansion of this hyperoceanic biome has previously been explained as a consequence of Neolithic forest clearance. However, the present distribution of blanket bog in Great Britain can be predicted accurately with a simple model (PeatStash based on summer temperature and moisture index thresholds, and the same model correctly predicts the highly disjunct distribution of blanket bog worldwide. This finding suggests that climate, rather than land-use history, controls blanket-bog distribution in the UK and everywhere else. We set out to test this hypothesis for blanket bogs in the UK using bioclimate envelope modelling compared with a database of peat initiation age estimates. We used both pollen-based reconstructions and climate model simulations of climate changes between the mid-Holocene (6000 yr BP, 6 ka and modern climate to drive PeatStash and predict areas of blanket bog. We compiled data on the timing of blanket-bog initiation, based on 228 age determinations at sites where peat directly overlies mineral soil. The model predicts large areas of northern Britain would have had blanket bog by 6000 yr BP, and the area suitable for peat growth extended to the south after this time. A similar pattern is shown by the basal peat ages and new blanket bog appeared over a larger area during the late Holocene, the greatest expansion being in Ireland, Wales and southwest England, as the model predicts. The expansion was driven by a summer cooling of about 2 °C, shown by both pollen-based reconstructions and climate models. The data show early Holocene (pre-Neolithic blanket-bog initiation at over half of the sites in the core areas of Scotland, and northern England. The temporal patterns and concurrence of the bioclimate model predictions and initiation data suggest that climate change provides a parsimonious explanation for the early Holocene distribution and later

  1. Climate-Driven Deformation of the Solid Earth from GRACE and GPS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, J. L.; Elosegui, P.; Mitrovica, J. X.; Tamisiea, M. E.

    2004-01-01

    GRACE data indicate large seasonal variations in gravity that are assumed to be related to climate-driven fluxes of space water. Seasonal redistribution of surface mass should deform the Earth, and our calculations using GRACE data suggest vertical deformations of approx. 13 mm in the region of greatest flux, the Amazon River Basin. To test the GRACE gravity-hydrology connection, we analyzed GPS data acquired from sites in this region. After accounting for degree 1 variations not observable with GRACE, we find that annual deformation measured with GPS correlates highly with predictions calculated from GRACE measurements. These results confirm the variations in surface water sensed by GRACE, which are significantly larger than those predicted by some hydrology models. The results also demonstrate that GRACE can be an important tool for monitoring deformation of the Earth, and suggest that combined analysis of GRACE and GPS may be a useful approach for estimation of geocenter variations.

  2. Wildfires in a warmer climate: Emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090-2099

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veira, A.; Lasslop, G.; Kloster, S.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming is expected to considerably impact wildfire activity and aerosol emission release in the future. Due to their complexity, the future interactions between climate change, wildfire activity, emission release, and atmospheric aerosol processes are still uncertain. Here we use the process-based fire model SPITFIRE within the global vegetation model JSBACH to simulate wildfire activity for present-day climate conditions and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The modeled fire emission fluxes and fire radiative power serve as input for the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, which has been extended by a semiempirical plume height parametrization. Our results indicate a general increase in extratropical and a decrease in tropical wildfire activity at the end of the 21st century. Changes in emission fluxes are most pronounced for the strongest warming scenario RCP8.5 (+49% in the extratropics, -37% in the tropics). Tropospheric black carbon (BC) concentrations are similarly affected by changes in emission fluxes and changes in climate conditions with regional variations of up to -50% to +100%. In the Northern Hemispheric extratropics, we attribute a mean increase in aerosol optical thickness of +0.031±0.002 to changes in wildfire emissions. Due to the compensating effects of fire intensification and more stable atmospheric conditions, global mean emission heights change by at most 0.3 km with only minor influence on BC long-range transport. The changes in wildfire emission fluxes for the RCP8.5 scenario, however, may largely compensate the projected reduction in anthropogenic BC emissions by the end of the 21st century.

  3. Assessing the Risk of Ecosystem Disruption in Europe using a Dynamic Vegetation Model driven by CMIP5 Regional Climatic Projections from EURO-CORDEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dury, Marie; François, Louis; Hambuckers, Alain; Henrot, Alexandra; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Munhoven, Guy

    2016-04-01

    While the combination of warmer and drier mean climatic conditions can have severe impacts on ecosystems, extreme events like droughts or heat waves that break the gradual climate change can have more long-term consequences on ecosystem composition, functioning and carbon storage. Hence, it is essential to assess the changes in climate variability and the changes in frequency of extreme events projected for the future. Ecosystems could not be in a condition to adapt to these new conditions and might be disrupted. Here, the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB DVM was used to evaluate and analyze how future climate and extreme events will affect European ecosystems. To quantify the uncertainties in the climatic projections and in their potential impacts on ecosystems, the vegetation model was driven with the outputs of different regional climatic models (RCMs), nested in CMIP5 GCM projections for the EURO-CORDEX project: ALADIN53 (Météo-France/CNRM), RACMO22E (KNMI), RCA4 (SMHI) and REMO2009 (MPI-CSC) RCMs. These climatic projections are at a high spatial resolution (0.11-degree, ˜12 km). CARAIB simulations were performed across Europe over the historical period 1951-2005 and the future period 2006-2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. We simulated a set of 99 individual species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 40 trees) representing the major European ecosystem flora. First, we analyzed the climatic variability simulated by the climatic models over the historical period and compared it with the observed climatic variability. None of these climatic models can reproduce accurately the present natural climatic variability. Then, to assess the risk of ecosystem disruption in the future and to identify the vulnerable areas in Europe, we created an index combining several CARAIB outputs: runoff, mean NPP, soil turnover, burned area, appearance and disappearance of species. We evaluated the severity of change projected for these variables (period 2070

  4. Emission of 1,3-butadiene from petrol-driven motor vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Y.; Galbally, I. E.; Weeks, I. A.

    This study reports the measurement of 1,3-butadiene emissions from 30 petrol-driven vehicles from the Australian car fleet using the Australian Design Rule 37/00 vehicle test procedure. Six of the cars tested were not equipped with catalytic converters and used leaded petrol as fuel. The remaining 24 cars were fitted with catalytic converters and used unleaded petrol. 1,3-Butadiene in exhaust samples was found to degrade rapidly in SUMMA treated stainless steel canisters and the degradation followed first-order kinetics. The rate coefficient of the decay can be represented by a linear dependence on the concentration of nitrogen oxides in the exhaust ( r2 = 0.79, n = 43), and the gas-phase reaction of NO 2 and 1,3-butadiene may have a major role in this loss. The 1,3-butadiene concentrations used to estimate vehicle emissions were corrected for this loss using the decay rate constant either observed from replicate analyses or from the NO x concentrations in the samples. The measurements showed that 1,3-butadiene was emitted at a rate of 20.7 ± 9.2 mg km -1 from 6 non-catalyst vehicles. There was considerable scatter in the observations from catalyst equipped vehicles and we infer that this was due to the malfunction of the emission control devices on some vehicles. The 19 vehicles that appeared to have functioning catalyst emission control devices had an average emission rate of 2.1 ± 1.5 mg km -1. These emission rates are consistent with atmospheric observations and are much higher than those reported previously. We calculate that more than 90% of the 1,3-butadiene in engine exhaust comes from the common alkane and aromatic constituents of the fuel. A comparison of emissions in the different phases of the drive cycle indicates that current emission controls remove more than 90% of the 1,3-butadiene from the initial exhaust mixture.

  5. Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, James [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States); Aldrich, Robb [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States)

    2015-08-19

    Traditionally, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) have been used more often in warmer climates; however, some new ASHPs are gaining ground in colder areas. These systems operate at subzero (Fahrenheit) temperatures and many do not include backup electric resistance elements. There are still uncertainties, however, about capacity and efficiency in cold weather. Also, questions such as “how cold is too cold?” do not have clear answers. These uncertainties could lead to skepticism among homeowners; poor energy savings estimates; suboptimal system selection by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning contractors; and inconsistent energy modeling. In an effort to better understand and characterize the heating performance of these units in cold climates, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), monitored seven inverter-driven, ductless ASHPs across the Northeast. Operating data were collected for three Mitsubishi FE18 units, three Mitsubishi FE12 units, and one Fujitsu 15RLS2 unit. The intent of this research was to assess heat output, electricity consumption, and coefficients of performance (COPs) at various temperatures and load conditions. This assessment was accomplished with long- and short-term tests that measured power consumption; supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures; and airflow through the indoor fan coil.

  6. Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Andrew S; Manning, Andrew H; Verplanck, Philip L; Crouch, Caitlin; McKnight, Diane M; Dunham, Ryan

    2012-09-01

    A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100-400% (400-2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO(4) and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2-1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.

  7. Regional emission metrics for short-lived climate forcers from multiple models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje K.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Bellouin, Nicolas

    2016-06-01

    For short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemical-transport or coupled chemistry-climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) for emissions in Europe and East Asia, as well as from the global shipping sector and global emissions. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosol precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), as well as ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOCs), which also influence aerosols to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated using global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature change potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramping period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies.For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for emissions in Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values for emissions in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOCs. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of an illustrative mitigation policy package is

  8. Interaction of the EU emissions Trading Directive with climate policy instrument in the Netherlands. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This policy brief presents an overview of the implications of the proposed EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for some selected energy and climate policy instruments in the Netherlands. It summarises the results of research that has been conducted by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) as part of the EU-funded project Interaction in EU Climate Policy

  9. Starburst-driven galactic winds; 1, Energetics and intrinsic X-ray emission

    CERN Document Server

    Strickland, D K

    2000-01-01

    We have performed an extensive hydrodynamical parameter study of starburst-driven galactic winds, motivated by the latest observation data on the best-studied starburst galaxy M82. We study how the wind dynamics, morphology and X-ray emission depend on the host galaxy's ISM distribution, starburst star formation history and strength, and presence and distribution of mass-loading by dense clouds. We find that the soft X-ray emission from galactic winds comes from low filling factor (ff < 2 per cent) gas, which contains only a small fraction (f < 10 per cent) of the mass and energy of the wind, irrespective of whether the wind models are strongly mass-loaded or not. X-ray observations of galactic winds therefore do not directly probe the gas that contains the majority of the energy, mass or metal-enriched gas in the outflow. The soft X-ray emission comes from gas at a wide range different temperatures and densities. Estimates of the physical properties of the hot gas in starburst galaxies, based on fittin...

  10. Vacuum ultraviolet emission from hydrogen microwave plasmas driven by surface waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Espinho, S.; Felizardo, E.; Tatarova, E.

    2016-10-01

    The vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation emitted by hydrogen surface-wave-driven plasmas operating at microwave frequency (2.45 GHz) and low-pressure conditions (0.1-2 mbar) was investigated, in particular the influence of microwave power and gas pressure on the intensity of the emissions. The strong emission of Lyman H2 ≤ft(\\text{B}{}1 Σ u+-\\text{X}{}1 Σ g+\\right) and Werner H2 ≤ft(\\text{C}{}1{{ \\Pi }u}-\\text{X}{}1 Σ g+\\right) molecular bands in the 80-125 nm spectral range was detected, while the most intense atomic emissions observed correspond to Lyman-α and Lyman-β lines at 121.6 nm and 102.6 nm respectively. An increase of the atomic lines and molecular bands intensities with increasing microwave power at pressure 0.1 mbar was observed. At 2 mbar the VUV spectra are entirely dominated by molecular bands. Theoretical predictions, as obtained from a collisional-radiative model, were validated by the experimental results.

  11. Scaling law for direct current field emission-driven microscale gas breakdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effects of field emission on direct current breakdown in microscale gaps filled with an ambient neutral gas are studied numerically and analytically. Fundamental numerical experiments using the particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo collisions method are used to systematically quantify microscale ionization and space-charge enhancement of field emission. The numerical experiments are then used to validate a scaling law for the modified Paschen curve that bridges field emission-driven breakdown with the macroscale Paschen law. Analytical expressions are derived for the increase in cathode electric field, total steady state current density, and the ion-enhancement coefficient including a new breakdown criterion. It also includes the effect of all key parameters such as pressure, operating gas, and field-enhancement factor providing a better predictive capability than existing microscale breakdown models. The field-enhancement factor is shown to be the most sensitive parameter with its increase leading to a significant drop in the threshold breakdown electric field and also to a gradual merging with the Paschen law. The proposed scaling law is also shown to agree well with two independent sets of experimental data for microscale breakdown in air. The ability to accurately describe not just the breakdown voltage but the entire pre-breakdown process for given operating conditions makes the proposed model a suitable candidate for the design and analysis of electrostatic microscale devices.

  12. Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon; de Elía, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    The Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) measures the response of global temperatures to cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the TCRE is a global quantity, climate impacts manifest predominantly in response to local climate changes. Here we quantify the link between CO2 emissions and regional temperature change, showing that regional temperatures also respond approximately linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions. Using an ensemble of twelve Earth system models, we present a novel application of pattern scaling to define the regional pattern of temperature change per emission of CO2. Ensemble mean regional TCRE values range from less than 1 °C per TtC for some ocean regions, to more than 5 °C per TtC in the Arctic, with a pattern of higher values over land and at high northern latitudes. We find also that high-latitude ocean regions deviate more strongly from linearity as compared to land and lower-latitude oceans. This suggests that ice-albedo and ocean circulation feedbacks are important contributors to the overall negative deviation from linearity of the global temperature response to high levels of cumulative emissions. The strong linearity of the regional climate response over most land regions provides a robust way to quantitatively link anthropogenic CO2 emissions to local-scale climate impacts.

  13. Sub-arctic Wetland Greenhouse Gases (CO2, CH4 & N2O) Emissions are Driven by Interactions of Environmental Controls and Herbivore Grazers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelsey, K.; Leffler, A. J.; Beard, K. H.; Choi, R. T.; Welker, J. M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is increasing temperatures, altering precipitation regimes and causing earlier growing seasons, particularly at northern latitudes. Such changes in local environmental conditions have the potential to affect biogeochemical cycling including the exchange of greenhouses gases between the atmosphere and the terrestrial biosphere. In addition to the effects of these environmental controls, animals such as migratory geese also influence biogeochemical cycles through grazing, trampling and delivering nutrient-rich fecal matter. In this work we aimed to quantify how local environmental conditions and the presence of grazing interact as drivers of emissions of three key greenhouse gases, CO2, CH4 and N2O, in coastal wetlands of the Yukon Kuskokwim Delta. We explored the magnitude of emissions across gradients of soil temperature and water table depth, and across vegetation types related to the presence of grazing, ranging from no vegetation through grazed and ungrazed vegetation. We also investigated emissions from grazed areas using experimental manipulations of the timing of grazing and advancement of the growing season. We found that local environmental conditions and use by grazers exert interacting controls on emissions of CO2, CH4 and N2O. Emissions of CO2 and CH4 were positively related to soil temperature and CH4 emissions were inversely related to water table depth, but the relationship varied by vegetation type. Net emissions of CO2 were greatest in ungrazed vegetation types (6.62 umols CO2 m-2 sec-1; p=0.0007) whereas CH4 emissions were greatest in the grazed vegetation (122.56 nmols CH4 m-2 sec-1; p=0.037). Flux of N2O was less than 1 nmol N2O m-2 sec-1 across all landscape positions under typical grazing and temperature conditions, but emissions were stimulated to over 10 nmols m-2 sec-1 when grazing occurred early relative to a typical season. Our results indicate that environmental conditions and the presence of migratory herbivores are both

  14. Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

    2016-04-01

    Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

  15. Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

    2015-01-01

    In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants

  16. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale.

  17. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. PMID:27343434

  18. Climate Benefits of Material Recycling: Inventory of Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Denmark, Norway and Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hillman, Karl; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksson, Ola;

    The purpose of this project is to compare emissions of greenhouse gases from material recycling with those from virgin material production, both from a material supply perspective and from a recycling system perspective. The method for estimating emissions and climate benefits is based on a review...

  19. Thermal emissions and climate change: a nuclear problem and a photovoltaic solution?

    CERN Document Server

    Cowern, Nick E B

    2008-01-01

    Global warming is a consequence of 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the global climate system and energy generation within this system. Humanity introduces positive forcings through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, agriculture, and increasingly thermal emissions - heat released as a result of energy generation and use. Up to now, climate change projections have neglected thermal emissions, and typically assume a peak in forcing due to GHG emissions around the middle of this century [1,2]. Here we show that, if humanity's future energy use grows at just 1% per year, slower than in recent history, and if thermal emissions are not controlled through changes in technology, the total forcing due to all emissions will not peak and decline significantly as currently predicted, but after a slight dip will continue to rise. This problem can be combated by geoengineering [3] and mitigated by renewable energy sources that minimize waste heat. Such approaches could be combi...

  20. National climate policy implications of mitigating embodied energy system emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, K.; Daly, H.; Barrett, J; Strachan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions require an almost complete transformation of the energy system to low carbon energy sources. Little consideration has been given to the potential adverse carbon consequences associated with the technology transition. This paper considers the embodied emissions that will occur to replace the UK’s fossil fuel-reliant energy supply with low carbon sources. The analysis generates a number of representative scenarios where emissions embodied in energy systems...

  1. On the efficiency gains of emissions trading when climate deals are non-cooperative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Holtsmark, Bjart

    2011-07-15

    This paper studies, in a numerical environment, climate treaties with emissions trading when national quotas result from strategic individual choice. We find that the larger the number of parties to the deal, the smaller are the emissions reductions and the lower the welfare. If insisting on stability with respect to participation, climate treaties involve few parties and yield practically no emissions reductions. While these results contrast with some optimistic studies, our numerical example conforms established results if modelling the problem in the more traditional sense. (Author)

  2. Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

    2012-01-01

    Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

  3. Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

    2009-04-01

    Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

  4. Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Paivi; Rinnan, Åsmund;

    2010-01-01

    • Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming, which will be more severe here than averaged over...... the globe. We assess the effects of climatic warming on non-methane BVOC emissions from a subarctic heath. • We performed ecosystem-based chamber measurements and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the BVOCs collected on adsorbent over two growing seasons at a wet subarctic tundra...... of a focus on BVOC emissions during climate change. The observed changes have implications for ecological interactions and feedback effects on climate change via impacts on aerosol formation and indirect greenhouse effects....

  5. Arctic Vegetation under Climate Change – Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions and Leaf Anatomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schollert, Michelle

    treatment effects on BVOC emissions. Furthermore, the anatomy of arctic plants seems to respond differently to warming than species at lower latitudes. The results in this thesis demonstrate the complexity of the effects of climate change on BVOC emissions and leaf anatomy of arctic plant species...... measurements in this thesis were performed using a dynamic enclosure system and collection of BVOCs into adsorbent cartridges analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry following thermal desorption. Also modifications in leaf anatomy in response to the studied effects of climate change were assessed...... common arctic plant species, illustrating the great importance of vegetation composition for determining ecosystem BVOC emissions. Additionally, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses in common arctic plant species to effects of climate change: warming, shading and snow addition. Against...

  6. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

  7. Synergy in the Dutch climate and NOx emission policy. A cost evaluation up to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The acquisition of relative cheap CO2 emission rights from foreign countries may mean missing synergistic side-effects on the domestic emissions of air-polluting substances. Extra costs will be necessary if the emission ceilings for NOx, SO2, and NMVOS are to be realised. These factors have, to date, not been taken into account in the Dutch national climate policy. This report documents the implications of the above-mentioned conclusion; however, only for the medium-term up to the beginning of 2010 and only for the NOx emissions. The analysis documented here shows that the savings from supplementary domestic climate measures for the NOx emission policy are limited; furthermore, these savings only slightly weigh up against the rapidly rising costs of the climate policy. Additional domestic climate measures remain relatively expensive, even when the synergetic side-effects on NOx emissions are taken into account. Except for an extra domestic reduction of about 2 megatonnes, it will be profitable to realise the reduction of greenhouse gases abroad and to reduce the NOx emissions using technical measures geared specifically to NOx. The synergetic effect was underestimated in this study because the potential synergetic effects for air-polluting substances other than NOx such as SO2, NMVOS, particulates and soot, were not considered and also because for the greenhouse gases only CO2 was considered

  8. The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere (also referred to as negative emissions) has been proposed as a means to restore the climate system to a desirable state, should the impacts of climate change become ‘dangerous’. Here we explore whether negative emissions are indeed effective in reversing climate change on human timescales, given the potentially counteracting effect of natural carbon sinks and the inertia of the climate system. We designed a range of CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition to a zero-carbon energy system and entail implementation of various amounts of net-negative emissions at technologically plausible rates. These scenarios are used to force an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity. Results suggest that while it is possible to revert to a desired level of warming (e.g. 2 °C above pre-industrial) after different levels of overshoot, thermosteric sea level rise is not reversible for at least several centuries, even under assumption of large amounts of negative CO2 emissions. During the net-negative emission phase, artificial CO2 removal is opposed by CO2 outgassing from natural carbon sinks, with the efficiency of CO2 removal—here defined as the drop in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission—decreasing with the total amount of negative emissions. (letter)

  9. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Liebergesell

    Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

  10. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebergesell, Mario; Reu, Björn; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Peñuelas, Josep; Wirth, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning. PMID:26848836

  11. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liebergesell, Mario; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning. PMID:26848836

  12. Natural climate variability and future climate policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricke, Katharine L.; Caldeira, Ken

    2014-05-01

    Large ensemble climate modelling experiments demonstrate the large role natural variability plays in local climate on a multi-decadal timescale. Variability in local weather and climate influences individual beliefs about climate change. To the extent that support for climate mitigation policies is determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability will strongly influence the timescale for implementation of such policies. Under a number of illustrative threshold criteria for both national and international climate action, we show that variability-driven uncertainty about local change, even in the face of a well-constrained estimate of global change, can potentially delay the time to policy implementation by decades. Because several decades of greenhouse gas emissions can have a large impact on long-term climate outcomes, there is substantial risk associated with climate policies driven by consensus among individuals who are strongly influenced by local weather conditions.

  13. Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Kodros

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing-state, and model nucleation and background SOA. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS microphysics. The emission factors include: amount, composition, size and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (internal, core-shell, and external with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon. We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from −0.02 to +0.06 W m−2 across all simulation/mixing state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from −0.2 to +1.2 W m−2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect ranges from +0.01 to −0.02 W m−2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from −1.0 to −0.05 W m−2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol

  14. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land

  15. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O.; Aragão, Luiz E. O. C.; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for ‘extensive cattle ranching’, ‘agro-silvopastoral use’ and ‘intensive cattle ranching and agriculture’. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire

  16. Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.class="p">Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population

  17. Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

    2011-10-01

    Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.

  18. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, P.; Andrew, R. M.; Rogelj, J.; Peters, G. P.; Canadell, J. G.; Knutti, R.; Luderer, G.; Raupach, M. R.; Schaeffer, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Le Quéré, C.

    2014-10-01

    Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 °C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.

  19. Climate change-driven treeline advances in the Urals alter soil microbial communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djukic, Ika; Moiseev, Pavel; Hagedorn, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Climatic warming may affect microbial communities and their functions either directly through increased temperatures or indirectly by changes in vegetation. Treelines are temperature-limited vegetation boundaries from tundra to forests. In unmanaged regions of the Ural mountains, there is evidence that the forest-tundra ecotone has shifted upward in response to climate warming during the 20th century. Little is known about the effects of the treeline advances on the microbial structure and function and hence they feedbacks on the belowground carbon and nitrogen cycling In our study, we aimed to estimate how ongoing upward shifts of the treeline ecotone might affect soil biodiversity and its function and hence soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in the Southern and Polar Ural mountains. Along altitudinal gradients reaching from the tundra to forests, we determined the soil microbial community composition (using Phospholipid Fatty Acids method) and quantified the activity of several extracellular enzymes involved in the C and nutrient cycling. In addition, we measured C pools in biomass and soils and quantified C and N mineralization. The results for the top soils, both in South Urals and in the Polar Ural, indicate a close link between climate change driven vegetation changes and soil microbial communities. The observed changes in microbial structure are induced through the resulting more favorable conditions than due to a shift in litter quality. The activities of chitinase were significantly higher under trees than under herbaceous plants, while activities of cellulase and protease declined with altitude from the tundra to the closed forest. In contrast to enzymatic activities, soil carbon stocks did not change significantly with altitude very likely as a result of a balancing out of increased C inputs from vegetation by an enhanced C output through mineralization with forest expansion. The accelerated organic matter turnover in the forest than in the tundra

  20. The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

    2010-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate

  1. Climate change and N2O emissions from South West England grasslands: A modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, Diego; Cardenas, Laura M.; Wu, Lianhai

    2016-05-01

    Unravelling the impacts of climate change on agriculture becomes increasingly important, as the rates and magnitude of its effects are accelerating. Current estimates of the consequences of climate change on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain largely uncertain; there is a need for more consistent and comprehensive assessments of this impact. In this study we explored the implications of two IPCC climate change projections (high and medium emissions scenarios) on N2O emissions from South West England grasslands for the time slices of a baseline, the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s, employing a process-based model (SPACSYS). The model was initially calibrated and validated using datasets collected from three grassland sites of the region. Statistical analysis showed that simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values. We found a consistent increase in N2O emissions of up to 94% under future climate change scenarios compared to those under the baseline, and warming rather than precipitation variability was the overriding factor controlling the N2O rise. Modelling fertilizer forms showed that replacing ammonium-nitrate fertilizers with urea or slurry significantly reduced N2O emissions (c. 30%). Our study highlights the urgent necessity to adopt viable N2O mitigation measures now in order to avoid higher emissions in the future.

  2. Reducing The Risk Of Abrupt Climate Change: Emission Corridors Preserving The Thermohaline Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.

    Paleo-reconstructions have shown that large and abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the last ice-age cycles. This evidence, supplemented by insights into the complex and nonlinear nature of the climate system, gives raise to the concern that anthropogenic forcing may trigger such events in the future. A prominent example for such a potential climatic shift is the collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circu- lation (THC), which would cause a major cooling of the northern North Atlantic and north-western Europe and considerable regional sea level rise, with possibly severe consequences on, e.g., fisheries, agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper we present emission corridors for the 21st century preserving the THC. Emission corridors embrace the range of future emissions beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. They are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach. We investigate the sensitivity of the emission corridors to the main uncertain parame- ters (climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivities as well as emissions of non CO_2 greenhouse gases). Results show a high dependence of the size of the emis- sion corridors on hydrological and climate sensitivities. For the best-guess values of both parameters we find that the emission corridors are wider than the range spanned by the SRES emissions scenarios. Thus, no immediate mitigation seems necessary in order to preserve the THC. For high but still realistic values of the sensitivities, however, even the low SRES emissions scenarios transgress the corridor boundaries. These findings imply that under 'business as usual' a non-negligible risk of either a THC collapse or an intolerable mitigation burden exists.

  3. Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, E.

    2012-12-01

    Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a

  4. Differentiating Climate Change and Emissions Influence on Future Ozone and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, J.; Kim, Y. M.; Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Chang, H. H.; Liu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    From the advent of coal burning and the subsequent industrial revolution to the present, human activities continue to influence ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. Besides the obvious environmental and climate implications, studies have shown convincing links between O3 exposure and health. These adverse health outcomes range from impaired lung function and cardiovascular stress to premature death. However, little is known concerning the potential impacts of future mitigation policies on O3 and health. Applying novel modeling strategies, we provide evidence of the impact of mitigation on O3 attributable to both climate change and anthropogenic emissions. We employ the latest emission scenarios for both low and high emissions (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) and include population projections to estimate excess mortality associated with each source separate from one another. We found that, by the mid-21st century, U.S. O3 could increase by 0.9% per year under a low emission future and by 1.6% under high emission settings. We predict excess mortality from high emission-induced O3 to increase annually by over 1,200 deaths. Conversely, excess deaths from lower emissions may decrease by over 1,600 annually. Taken together, these results indicate that mitigation efforts may significantly offset the effect of climate change on O3-related mortality.

  5. Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutton, M.A.; Reis, S.; Riddick, S.N.; Dragosits, U.; Nemitz, E.; Tang, Y.S.; Braban, C.F.; Vieno, M.; Dore, A.J.; Mitchell, R.F.; Wanless, S.; Daunt, F.; Fowler, D. [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Blackall, T.D. [Department of Geography, Strand Campus, Kings College London, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Theobald, M.R. [Higher Technical School of Agricultural Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Milford, C. [Izana Atmospheric Research Center, Meteorological State Agency of Spain (AEMET), Santa Cruz de Tenerife 38071 (Spain); Flechard, C.R. [INRA, Agrocampus Ouest, UMR 1069 SAS, 65 rue de St. Brieuc, 35042 Rennes Cedex (France); Loubet, B.; Massad, R.; Cellier, P.; Personne, E. [UMR INRA-AgroParisTech Environnement et Grandes Cultures, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France); Coheur, P.F.; Clarisse, L.; Van Damme, M.; Ngadi, Y. [Spectroscopie de l' atmosphere, Chimie Quantique et Photophysique, Universite Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), 50 avenue F. D. Roosevelt, 1050 Brussels (Belgium); Clerbaux, C. [Universite Paris 06, Universite Versailles-St. Quentin, UMR8190, CNRS/INSU, LATMOS-IPSL, Paris (France); Geels, C.; Hertel, O. [Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, P.O. Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ambelas Skjoeth, C. [National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of Worcester, Henwick Grove, Worcester WR2 6AJ (United Kingdom); Wichink Kruit, R.J. [TNO, Climate, Air and Sustainability, P.O. Box 80015, 3508 TA Utrecht (Netherlands); Pinder, R.W.; Bash, J.O.; Walker, J.T. [US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Durham, NC 27711 (United States); Simpson, D. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, EMEP MSC-W, P.O. Box 43-Blindern, 0313 Oslo (Norway); Horvath, L. [Plant Ecology Research Group of Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany and Ecophysiology, Szent Istvan University, Pater K. utca 1, 2100 Goedoello (Hungary); Misselbrook, T.H. [Rothamsted Research, Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems, North Wyke, Okehampton EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Bleeker, A. [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Dentener, F. [European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (Italy); De Vries, W. [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2013-07-15

    Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land-atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission-deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5{sup o}C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28-67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45-85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89-179) Tg by 2100.

  6. Impacts of Climate Change Induced Vegetation Responses on BVOC Emissions from Subarctic Heath Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valolahti, Hanna Maritta

    The role of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) affecting Earths’ climate system is one of the greatest uncertainties when modelling the global climate change. BVOCs presence in the atmosphere can have both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms when they involve atmospheric...... the understanding of the controls of BVOC emissions from subarctic ecosystems under climate change by studying the responses to long-term manipulations from leaf level to small ecosystem scale. Leaf-level studies showed different anatomical responses for warming and shading manipulations between studied species...... temperature has been regulating annual plant biomass production, but ongoing global warming is more pronounced in these regions than what the global average is. This may increase the importance of subarctic and arctic vegetation as a source of BVOC emissions in near future. This thesis aims to increase...

  7. Climate-sensitive feedbacks between hillslope processes and fluvial erosion in sediment-driven incision models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skov, Daniel S.; Egholm, David L.

    2016-04-01

    Surface erosion and sediment production seem to have accelerated globally as climate cooled in the Late Cenozoic, [Molnar, P. 2004, Herman et al 2013]. Glaciers emerged in many high mountain ranges during the Quaternary, and glaciation therefore represents a likely explanation for faster erosion in such places. Still, observations and measurements point to increases in erosion rates also in landscapes where erosion is driven mainly by fluvial processes [Lease and Ehlers (2013), Reusser (2004)]. Flume experiments and fieldwork have shown that rates of incision are to a large degree controlled by the sediment load of streams [e.g. Sklar and Dietrich (2001), Beer and Turowski (2015)]. This realization led to the formulation of sediment-flux dependent incision models [Sklar and Dietrich (2004)]. The sediment-flux dependence links incision in the channels to hillslope processes that supply sediment to the channels. The rates of weathering and soil transport on the hillslopes are processes that are likely to respond to changing temperatures, e.g. because of vegetation changes or the occurrence of frost. In this study, we perform computational landscape evolution experiments, where the coupling between fluvial incision and hillslope processes is accounted for by coupling a sediment-flux-dependent model for fluvial incision to a climate-dependent model for weathering and hillslope sediment transport. The computational experiments first of all demonstrate a strong positive feedback between channel and hillslope processes. In general, faster weathering leads to higher rates of channel incision, which further increases the weathering rates, mainly because of hillslope steepening. Slower weathering leads to the opposite result. The experiments also demonstrate, however, that the feedbacks vary significantly between different parts of a drainage network. For example, increasing hillslope sediment production may accelerate incision in the upper parts of the catchment, while at

  8. An alternative to the Global Warming Potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    OpenAIRE

    2003-01-01

    The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subject to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric, which we call the Global Tem...

  9. Alternative Climate Policies and Intertemporal Emissions Leakage: Quantifying the Green Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    FISCHER, Carolyn; Salant, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Efforts to limit cumulative emissions over the next century may be partially thwarted by the responses of fossil fuel suppliers. Current price-cost margins for major reserves are ample, leaving scope for significant price reductions if climate policies reduce demand for fossil fuels through conservation or substitution to clean alternatives. Most models simulating the consequences of climate policies completely disregard these supply responses. As for theoretical models, under standard assump...

  10. Secondary aerosol formation from stress-induced biogenic emissions and possible climate feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. F. Mentel

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols impact climate by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and by acting as ice and cloud condensation nuclei. Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOAs comprise an important component of atmospheric aerosols. Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs emitted by vegetation are the source of BSOAs. Pathogens and insect attacks, heat waves and droughts can induce stress to plants that may impact their BVOC emissions, and hence the yield and type of formed BSOAs, and possibly their climatic effects. This raises questions of whether stress-induced changes in BSOA formation may attenuate or amplify effects of climate change. In this study we assess the potential impact of stress-induced BVOC emissions on BSOA formation for tree species typical for mixed deciduous and Boreal Eurasian forests. We studied the photochemical BSOA formation for plants infested by aphids in a laboratory setup under well-controlled conditions and applied in addition heat and drought stress. The results indicate that stress conditions substantially modify BSOA formation and yield. Stress-induced emissions of sesquiterpenes, methyl salicylate, and C17-BVOCs increase BSOA yields. Mixtures including these compounds exhibit BSOA yields between 17 and 33%, significantly higher than mixtures containing mainly monoterpenes (4–6% yield. Green leaf volatiles suppress SOA formation, presumably by scavenging OH, similar to isoprene. By classifying emission types, stressors and BSOA formation potential, we discuss possible climatic feedbacks regarding aerosol effects. We conclude that stress situations for plants due to climate change should be considered in climate–vegetation feedback mechanisms.

  11. Secondary aerosol formation from stress-induced biogenic emissions and possible climate feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. F. Mentel

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols impact climate by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and by acting as ice and cloud condensation nuclei. Secondary organic aerosols (SOA comprise an important component of atmospheric aerosols. Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC emitted by vegetation are a major source of SOA. Pathogens and insect attacks, heat waves and droughts can induce stress to plants that may impact their BVOC emissions, and hence the yield and type of formed SOA, and possibly their climatic effects. This raises questions whether stress-induced changes in SOA formation may attenuate or amplify effects of climate change. In this study we assess the potential impact of stress-induced BVOC emissions on SOA formation for tree species typical for mixed deciduous and Boreal Eurasian forests. We studied the photochemical SOA formation for infested plants in a laboratory setup under well-controlled conditions and applied in addition heat and drought stress. The results indicate that stress conditions substantially modify SOA formation. While sesquiterpenes, methyl salicylate, and C17-BVOC increase SOA yield, green leaf volatiles suppress SOA formation. By classifying emission types, stressors and SOA formation potential, we propose possible climatic feedbacks regarding aerosol effects. We conclude that stress situations for plants due to climate change should be considered in climate-vegetation feedback mechanisms.

  12. Climate impacts of changing aerosol emissions since 1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, T.; Partanen, A.-I.; Laakso, A.; Lu, Z.; Bergman, T.; Mikkonen, S.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.; Räisänen, P.; Streets, D. G.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-07-01

    Increases in Asian aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature increase during the past 15 years. We study the effect of sulphur and black carbon (BC) emission changes between 1996 and 2010 on the global energy balance. We find that the increased Asian emissions have had very little regional or global effects, while the emission reductions in Europe and the U.S. have caused a positive radiative forcing. In our simulations, the global-mean aerosol direct radiative effect changes by 0.06 W/m2 during 1996 to 2010, while the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is 0.42 W/m2. The rather large ERF arises mainly from changes in cloudiness, especially in Europe. In Asia, the BC warming due to sunlight absorption has largely offset the cooling caused by sulphate aerosols. Asian BC concentrations have increased by a nearly constant fraction at all altitudes, and thus, they warm the atmosphere also in cloudy conditions.

  13. Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development in Bangladesh (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

    2013-11-01

    Bangladesh is widely considered to be one of the nations most threatened by climate change. With two-thirds of the country less than 20 feet above sea level, the intrusion of salt into freshwater wells, frequent flooding, and the displacement of people from their homes is an ongoing threat. At the same time, the country's cities are rapidly growing, and the demand for energy is increasing at a corresponding rate.

  14. Coexistence of Gravitationally Bound and Radiation Driven CIV Emission Line Regions in Active Galactic Nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Huiyuan; Zhou, Hongyan; Liu, Bo; Wang, Jianguo; Yuan, Weimin; Dong, Xiaobo

    2011-01-01

    There are mutually contradictory views in the literature of the kinematics and structure of high-ionization line (e.g. CIV) emitting regions in active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Two kinds of broad emission line region (BELR) models have been proposed, outflow and gravitationally bound BELR, which are supported respectively by blueshift of the CIV line and reverberation mapping observations. To reconcile these two apparently different models, we present a detailed comparison study between the CIV and MgII lines using a sample of AGNs selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that the kinematics of the CIV region is different from that of MgII, which is thought to be controlled by gravity. A strong correlation is found between the blueshift and asymmetry of the CIV profile and the Eddington ratio. This provides strong observational support for the postulation that the outflow is driven by radiation pressure. In particular, we find robust evidence that the CIV line region is largely dominated by outflow a...

  15. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Xingguo Han; Xue Sun; Cheng Wang; Mengxiong Wu; Da Dong; Ting Zhong; Thies, Janice E.; Weixiang Wu

    2016-01-01

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated...

  16. The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Shindell

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emissions of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2 and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. For steadily increasing emissions without substantial pollution controls, we find that the net global mean climate forcing ranges from near zero to a substantial negative value, depending on the magnitude of aerosol indirect effects, due to aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. The long-term forcing from stable (constant emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls, with larger values in the case of pollutant controls. The results imply that historical emissions from coal-fired power plants until ~1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period. Those emissions likely led to weak cooling at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and warming in the Southern Hemisphere, however. Subsequent imposition of pollution controls and the switch to low-sulfur coal in some areas kept global SO2 emissions roughly level from 1970 to 2000. Hence during that period, RF due to emissions during those decades and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and likely contributed to rapid global and regional warming. Most recently, construction of coal-fired power plants in China and India has been increasing rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of high-growth rates for another 30 years would lead to near zero to negative global mean climate forcing in the absence of expanded pollution controls, but severely degraded air quality. However, following the Western pattern of high coal usage followed by imposition of pollution controls could lead to accelerated global warming in the

  17. Rising methane emissions in response to climate change in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to examine the methane (CH4) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Northern Eurasia from 1971 to 2100. Multiple model simulations using various wetland extent datasets and climate change scenarios were conducted to assess the uncertainty of CH4 fluxes, including emissions and consumption. On the basis of these simulations we estimate the current net emissions in the region to be 20–24 Tg CH4 yr−1 (1 Tg = 1012 g), two-thirds of which are emitted during the summer. In response to climate change over the 21st century, the annual CH4 emissions in the region are projected to increase at a rate of 0.06 Tg CH4 yr−1, which is an order of magnitude greater than that of annual CH4 consumption. Further, the annual net CH4 emissions are projected to increase by 6–51% under various wetland extent datasets and climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, relative to present conditions. Spatial patterns of net CH4 emissions were determined by wetland extent. Net CH4 emissions were dominated by wetlands within boreal forests, grasslands and wet tundra areas in the region. Correlation analyses indicated that water table depth and soil temperature were the two most important environmental controls on both CH4 emissions and consumption in the region. Our uncertainty analyses indicated that the uncertainty in wetland extent had a larger effect on future CH4 emissions than the uncertainty in future climate. This study suggests that better characterization of the spatial distribution and the natural diversity of wetlands should be a research priority for quantifying CH4 fluxes in this region.

  18. Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand—Climate Version 1

    OpenAIRE

    Hendy, Joanna; Kerr, Suzi

    2005-01-01

    Several different New Zealand economic models produce measures of rural economic activity that have greenhouse gas implications. For climate change analysis, models need to translate economic activity into greenhouse gas emissions. This document estimates functions and creates projections for land-use related greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic activity that are simple; are based on readily available data and strong science; are consistent with the national inventory in 2002; evolve...

  19. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  20. Comparing climate and cost impacts of reference levels for reducing emissions from deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate benefit and economic cost of an international mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) will depend on the design of reference levels for crediting emission reductions. We compare the impacts of six proposed reference level designs on emission reduction levels and on cost per emission reduction using a stylized partial equilibrium model (the open source impacts of REDD incentives spreadsheet; OSIRIS). The model explicitly incorporates national incentives to participate in an international REDD mechanism as well as international leakage of deforestation emissions. Our results show that a REDD mechanism can provide cost-efficient climate change mitigation benefits under a broad range of reference level designs. We find that the most effective reference level designs balance incentives to reduce historically high deforestation emissions with incentives to maintain historically low deforestation emissions. Estimates of emission reductions under REDD depend critically on the degree to which demand for tropical frontier agriculture generates leakage. This underscores the potential importance to REDD of complementary strategies to supply agricultural needs outside of the forest frontier.

  1. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO2. Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO2 emissions. (letter)

  2. The case for consumption-based accounting of greenhouse gas emissions to promote local climate action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the challenges faced by local governments in the work with municipal climate action plans concerns accounting for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-what emissions should be targeted, development of emissions over time, and how to effectively measure the success of local climate action. In this paper, we present challenges in developing a GHG emissions inventory related to the provision of municipal services. We argue that a consumption-based perspective, illustrated through the use of the carbon footprint (CF), rather than more conventional production-based inventory, provides a more useful and less misleading indicator. We present an analysis of the CF of municipal services provided by the city of Trondheim. The use of data directly from the city's accounting system ensures a reliable calculation of indirect emissions, and, with some minor modifications, also accurate data on direct emissions. Our analysis shows that approximately 93 percent of the total CF of municipal services is indirect emissions, located in upstream paths, underlining the need of introducing consumption-based indicators that takes into account upstream GHG emissions.

  3. Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Mark A.; Reis, Stefan; Riddick, Stuart N.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Nemitz, Eiko; Theobald, Mark R.; Tang, Y. Sim; Braban, Christine F.; Vieno, Massimo; Dore, Anthony J.; Mitchell, Robert F.; Wanless, Sarah; Daunt, Francis; Fowler, David; Blackall, Trevor D.; Milford, Celia; Flechard, Chris R.; Loubet, Benjamin; Massad, Raia; Cellier, Pierre; Personne, Erwan; Coheur, Pierre F.; Clarisse, Lieven; Van Damme, Martin; Ngadi, Yasmine; Clerbaux, Cathy; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla; Hertel, Ole; Wichink Kruit, Roy J.; Pinder, Robert W.; Bash, Jesse O.; Walker, John T.; Simpson, David; Horváth, László; Misselbrook, Tom H.; Bleeker, Albert; Dentener, Frank; de Vries, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land–atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission–deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5°C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28–67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45–85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89–179) Tg by 2100. PMID:23713128

  4. Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

  5. Teaching and Practicing Climate Politics at College of the Atlantic: Student-inspired, Student-driven

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doreen Stabinsky

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available College of the Atlantic students past and present play leadership roles in the international climate justice youth movement. Student interest in climate change politics at the global level, particularly within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has inspired the development of a range of courses at COA in global environmental diplomacy. The courses provide a climate justice framework for understanding the geopolitics and political economy of the negotiations, serve to link students with key actors in the climate justice movement, and ultimately to contribute to their own development as climate justice leaders.

  6. Determination of a potential set of factors which influence the situation of methane emission into roadways being driven

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Marian Turek

    2009-01-01

    The currently applied methodology of absolute gassiness forecasting in roadways being driven in Polish hard coal mines is based on the results of investigations from before more than twenty years. At present the roadways are being driven in majority of cases in quite different conditions than those which had been the subject of the said investigations. The application of "old" methods of forecasting of methane emission during driving of roadways often brings about great discrepancies between the results of the forecasts and actual situation. It is firstly necessary to determine a potential set of factors which exert an influence on situation regarding methane emission into roadways being driven in order to prepare a verified mathematical model of absolute gassiness forecasting. On the basis of available literature and the investigations conducted by the Central Mining Institute an initial list of factors has been prepared which can have an impact upon methane emission into roadways being driven. The assumptions of heuristic method have been taken advantage of for selection of parameters and indices describing the phenomenon of methane emission. It has been dictated by the fact that the available literature is lacking a pretty unambiguous viewpoint on the subject under consideration and at the same time it is necessary to perform an a priori assessment of the information contained in a given feature (factor). A prepared initial set has been scrutinized to be verified on the basis of a conducted expert survey among seventy specialists in this field. After collecting of the results of the survey their statistical elaboration was prepared. The co-efficient of agreement of multiple ordering, the so called concordance co-efficient has been taken advantage of in order to check the competency of experts. The investigations prove that the experts are in agreement in their opinions. The estimation of a collective assessment of all participants of the survey was conducted

  7. Climate change and pollutant emissions impacts on air quality in 2050 over Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, E.; Martins, H.; Ferreira, J.; Marta-Almeida, M.; Rocha, A.; Carvalho, A.; Freitas, S.; Borrego, C.

    2016-04-01

    Changes in climate and air pollutant emissions will affect future air quality from global to urban scale. In this study, regional air quality simulations for historical and future periods are conducted, with CAMx version 6.0, to investigate the impacts of future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over Portugal and the Porto metropolitan area in 2050. The climate and the emission projections were derived from the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario. Modelling results show that climate change will impact NO2, PM10 and O3 concentrations over Portugal. The NO2 and PM10 annual means will increase in Portugal and in the Porto municipality, and the maximum 8-hr daily O3 value will increase in the Porto suburban areas (approximately 5%) and decrease in the urban area (approximately 2%). When considering climate change and projected anthropogenic emissions, the NO2 annual mean decreases (approximately 50%); PM10 annual mean will increase in Portugal and decrease in Porto municipality (approximately 13%); however PM10 and O3 levels increase and extremes occur more often, surpassing the currently legislated annual limits and displaying a higher frequency of daily exceedances. This air quality degradation is likely to be related with the trends found for the 2046-2065 climate, which implies warmer and dryer conditions, and with the increase of background concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. The results demonstrate the need for Portuguese authorities and policy-makers to design and implement air quality management strategies that take climate change impacts into account.

  8. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  9. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Donat, Markus G; Pitman, Andy J; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L

    2016-01-28

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  10. Recent range expansion of a terrestrial orchid corresponds with climate-driven variation in its population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Meer, Sascha; Jacquemyn, Hans; Carey, Peter D; Jongejans, Eelke

    2016-06-01

    The population dynamics and distribution limits of plant species are predicted to change as the climate changes. However, it remains unclear to what extent climate variables affect population dynamics, which vital rates are most sensitive to climate change, and whether the same vital rates drive population dynamics in different populations. In this study, we used long-term demographic data from two populations of the terrestrial orchid Himantoglossum hircinum growing at the northern edge of their geographic range to quantify the influence of climate change on demographic vital rates. Integral projection models were constructed to study how climate conditions between 1991 and 2006 affected population dynamics and to assess how projected future climate change will affect the long-term viability of this species. Based on the parameterised vital rate functions and the observed climatic conditions, one of the studied populations had an average population growth rate above 1 (λ = 1.04), while the other was declining at ca. 3 % year(-1) (λ = 0.97). Variation in temperature and precipitation mainly affected population growth through their effect on survival and fecundity. Based on UK Climate Projection 2009 estimates of future climate conditions for three greenhouse gas emission scenarios, population growth rates are expected to increase in one of the studied populations. Overall, our results indicate that the observed changes in climatic conditions appeared to be beneficial to the long-term survival of the species in the UK and suggest that they may have been the driving force behind the current range expansion of H. hircinum in England. PMID:26932468

  11. Dynamics of cooperative emissions in a cascade three-level molecular system driven by an ultrashort laser pulse

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Liu Ji-Cai; Wang Chun-Xin; Gel'mukhanov Faris; Wang Chuan-Kui

    2008-01-01

    This paper investigates the dynamics of cooperative emissions in a cascade three-level system driven by an ultrashort laser pulse by solving numerically the full-wave Maxwell-Bloeh equations.The 4,4'-bis(dimethylamino) stilbene molecule is used as the model molecule because of its strong two-photon absorption property.The two-colour cooperative emissions are studied as functions of molecular number density and dephasing rate of the dipole coherence.The propagation effects on the evolution of the cooperative radiations are also taken into account.The cooperative radiations are enhanced for large number density of the molecule,while the fast dephasing of the dipole coherence reduces the intensity of the cooperative radiations and delays the emission times or even inhibits the formation of the emissions.The delay time of the radiation decreases with the increase of the molecular number density and the propagation distance.

  12. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  13. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlosser, Courtney Adam [MIT; Walter-Anthony, Katey [University of Alaska; Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue University; Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Laboratory

    2013-04-26

    Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  14. Limited response of peatland CH4 emissions to abrupt Atlantic Ocean circulation changes in glacial climates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. O. Hopcroft

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Ice-core records show that abrupt Dansgaard-Oeschger climatic warming events of the last glacial period were accompanied by large increases in the atmospheric CH4 concentration (up to 200 ppbv. These abrupt changes are generally regarded as arising from the effects of changes in the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation and the resultant climatic impact on natural CH4 sources, in particular wetlands. We use two different ecosystem models of wetland CH4 emissions to simulate northern CH4 sources forced with coupled general circulation model simulations of five different time periods during the last glacial to investigate the potential influence of abrupt ocean circulation changes on atmospheric CH4 levels during D-O events. The simulated warming over Greenland of 7–9 °C in the different time-periods is at the lower end of the range of 11–15 °C derived from ice-cores, but is associated with strong impacts on the hydrological cycle, especially over the North Atlantic and Europe during winter. We find that although the sensitivity of CH4 emissions to the imposed climate varies significantly between the two ecosystem emissions models, the model simulations do not reproduce sufficient emission changes to satisfy ice-core observations of CH4 increases during abrupt events. This suggests that alternative scenarios of climatic change could be required to explain the abrupt glacial CH4 variations.

  15. Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

    2016-03-01

    Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary

  16. Strategies for implementing Climate Smart Agriculture and creating marketable Greenhouse emission reduction credits, for small scale rice farmers in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahuja, R.; Kritee, K.; Rudek, J.; Van Sanh, N.; Thu Ha, T.

    2014-12-01

    Industrial agriculture systems, mostly in developed and some emerging economies, are far different from the small holder farms that dot the landscapes in Asia and Africa. At Environmental Defense Fund, along with our partners from non-governmental, corporate, academic and government sectors and farmers, we have worked actively in India and Vietnam for the last four years to better understand how small scale farmers working on rice paddy (and other upland crops) cultivation can best deal with climate change. Some of the questions we have tried to answer are: What types of implementable best practices, both old and new, on small farm systems lend themselves to improved yields, farm incomes, climate resilience and mitigation? Can these practices be replicated everywhere or is the change more landscape and people driven? What are the institutional, cultural, financial and risk-perception related barriers that prevent scaling up of these practices? How do we innovate and overcome these barriers? The research community needs to work more closely together and leverage multiple scientific, economic and policy disciplines to fully answer these questions. In the case of small farm systems, we find that it helps to follow certain steps if the climate-smart (or low carbon) farming programs are to succeed and the greenhouse credits generated are to be marketed: Demographic data collection and plot demarcation Farmer networks and diaries Rigorous baseline determination via surveys Alternative practice determination via consultation with local universities/experts Measurements on representative plots for 3-4 years (including GHG emissions, yields, inputs, economic and environmental savings) to help calibrate biogeochemical models and/or calculate regional emission factors. Propagation of alternative practices across the landscape via local NGOs/governments Recording of parameters necessary to extrapolate representative plot GHG emission reductions to all farmers in a given

  17. Galactic outflow driven by the active nucleus and the origin of the gamma-ray emission in NGC 1068

    CERN Document Server

    Lamastra, A; Guetta, D; Antonelli, L A; Colafrancesco, S; Menci, N; Puccetti, S; Stamerra, A; Zappacosta, L

    2016-01-01

    We compute the non-thermal emissions produced by relativistic particles accelerated by the AGN-driven shocks in NGC 1068, and we compare the model predictions with the observed gamma-ray and radio spectra . The former is contributed by pion decay, inverse Compton scattering, and bremsstrahlung, while the latter is produced by synchrotron radiation. We derive the gamma-ray and radio emissions by assuming the standard acceleration theory, and we discuss how our results compare with those corresponding to other commonly assumed sources of gamma-ray and radio emissions, like Supernova remnants (SNR) or AGN jets. We find that the AGN-driven shocks observed in the circumnuclear molecular disk of such a galaxy provide a contribution to the gamma-ray emission comparable to that provided by the starburst activity when standard particle acceleration efficiencies are assumed, while they can yield the whole gamma-ray emission only when the parameters describing the acceleration efficiency and the proton coupling with the...

  18. More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntingford, Chris; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-12-01

    Recent years have witnessed unprecedented interest in how the burning of fossil fuels may impact on the global climate system. Such visibility of this issue is in part due to the increasing frequency of key international summits to debate emissions levels, including the 2015 21st Conference of Parties meeting in Paris. In this perspective we plot a timeline of significant climate meetings and reports, and against metrics of atmospheric greenhouse gas changes and global temperature. One powerful metric is cumulative CO2 emissions that can be related to past and future warming levels. That quantity is analysed in detail through a set of papers in this ERL focus issue. We suggest it is an open question as to whether our timeline implies a lack of progress in constraining climate change despite multiple recent keynote meetings—or alternatively—that the increasing level of debate is encouragement that solutions will be found to prevent any dangerous warming levels?

  19. Response of Arctic Temperature to Changes in Emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice the global rate, largely due to ice albedo and temperature feedbacks. While deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation appear promptly and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This study is the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCF emissions, taking into account BC, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile hydrocarbons (VOC), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone, their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. Using several chemical transport models we perform detailed radiative forcing calculations from emissions of these species. Geographically we separate emissions into seven source regions that correspond with the national groupings of the Arctic Council, the leading body organizing international policy in the region (the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, the rest of Europe, Russia, East and South Asia, and the rest of the world). We look at six main sectors known to account for [nearly all] of these emissions: households (domestic), energy/industry/waste, transport, agricultural fires, grass/forest fires, and gas flaring. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible SLCFs mitigation scenario, phased in from 2015 through 2030, can cut warming by 0.2 K in 2050.

  20. Allocating greenhouse gas emissions in the German federal system: Regional interests and federal climate governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The academic debate on climate policies often portrays Germany as one of the most successful cases. Despite its federal system of joint decision-making, most studies of German climate policy focus primarily upon activities at the national level while disregarding the heterogeneous economic interests and veto options of the Länder. Using the cases on renewable energy policy and emission trading, we analyze the subnational interests and institutional mechanisms that shape the intergovernmental negotiations and policy outcomes within the federated system. The cases confirm assumptions made by general research on German federalism, according to which strategies for the externalization and compensation of costs are of particular importance for redistributive policies, and the EU plays a major role in dissolving potential barriers to the process of federal policy formation. Contrary to the reservations often expressed, we demonstrate that climate policies have led to an increased economic and political competition between the Länder and have supported effective solutions. However, recent shortfalls in the effectiveness of emission trading and in the cost-efficiency of renewable energy policies indicate that redistributive conflicts in the allocation of greenhouse gas emissions have to be addressed more systematically within the German (and the European) system(s) of joint decision-making. - Highlights: • Profound study of renewable energy policy and emission trading in Germany. • Study of joint-decision making in climate policy in the German federal system. • Intergovernmental conflicts and agreements in allocating GHG emissions. • Policy outcomes, potentials and restrictions of federal climate governance

  1. Climate-Driven Changes Within the Larch Forest of Northern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.

    2015-12-01

    Thanks to the support of NASA's Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem Focus Area programs, joint NASA/ Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences studies have been conducted throughout Siberia. The overall objective has been to obtain field and satellite measurements to examine carbon stocks and track changes in forests across this vast area. In this presentation, we discuss some of the finding from this 25+ year collaboration' i.e., observed climate-driven changes within larch communities in northern Siberia. Field measurements and satellite data, including Terra/MODIS, Landsat, GRACE and QuickBird were used for analysis of forest conditions. The following results will be discussed. (1). At the northern limit of larch (Larix gmelinii) range (i.e.,~72°N) tree mortality was observed during the cooling period from the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century. Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) trees re-establishment followed warming temperatures by the middle of the19th century. The current tree line has recovered to the pre-LIA line location although tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower. The mean rate of upward migration was found to be 0.35 m yr-1 (with a range of 0.21-0.58). (2) The migration of the "dark needle conifers" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) into the southern margin zone of larch dominated forest was documented. Meanwhile, within the traditional DNC range decline and mortality of both Siberian pine and fir were observed and attributed, primarily, due to an increased drought. (3) Within Central Siberia larch growth is limited by early summer temperatures and available water from thawing permafrost. Larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), drought (SPEI; r = 0.68-0.82), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), previous year precipitation (r = 0.63) and soil water anomalies (r = 0.79). Larch TRW growth and Gross Primary Productivity

  2. Contrasting impacts of climate-driven flowering phenology on changes in alien and native plant species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Philip E

    2011-01-01

    • Plant phenology is particularly sensitive to climate and a key indicator of environmental change. Globally, first flowering dates (FFDs) have advanced by several days per decade in response to recent climate warming, but, while earlier flowering should allow plant distributions to increase, a link between FFD and range changes has not been observed. • Here I show for 347 species that the extent to which FFD has responded to climate warming is linked to the degree to which their relative distributions have changed over 30 yr across the British Isles. • Native plant species whose phenology did not track climate change declined in distribution, whereas species that became more widespread all exhibited earlier flowering. In contrast, alien neophytes showed both a stronger phenological response to warming and a more marked increase in distribution, but no link between the two. • These trends were consistent both for relative changes in the national distribution and for local abundance. At the national scale, the more recently an alien species became established in Britain, the more likely it was to increase in distribution irrespective of FFD, suggesting that recent changes in alien species distributions are decoupled from climate and driven by other factors. PMID:20807339

  3. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mark Scriber

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

  4. An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

    OpenAIRE

    Liddicoat, S. K.; Booth, B. B. B.; M. M. Joshi

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The two paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions exceeding two trillion tonnes of carbon in the later pair. Their initially diverging cumulative emissions trajectories ...

  5. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  6. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  7. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  8. The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Shindell

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2 and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until ~1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low-sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogenaities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by

  9. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO driven climate variability at the global scale

    OpenAIRE

    T. I. E. Veldkamp; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; J. C. J. H. Aerts; P. J. Ward

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most important risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and in some regions climate change However, less attention has been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcit...

  10. Climate-driven population responses of resident brown trout, Salmo trutta: Trends and future projections

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The climate is changing at an alarming rate with consequences such as species and population extinctions, changes in species distribution and phenology. However, mechanisms underlying these global trends are not well understood, especially at a population level. Climate effects on demographic traits and population dynamics have recently received increasing attention as key importance for understanding the ecological impacts of climate change. The effects on demographic traits might vary acros...

  11. Methane Emissions From Western Siberian Wetlands: Heterogeneity and Sensitivity to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, T. J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Podest, E.; McDonald, K. C.; Sathulur, K.; Bowling, L. C.; Friborg, T.

    2007-12-01

    Prediction of methane emissions from high-latitude wetlands is important given concerns about their sensitivity to a warming climate. As a basis for prediction of wetland methane emissions at regional scales, we have coupled the Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrological model (VIC) with the Biosphere-Energy-Transfer- Hydrology terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY) and a wetland methane emissions model to make large-scale estimates of methane emissions as a function of soil temperature, water table depth, and net primary productivity (NPP), with a parameterization of the sub-grid heterogeneity of the water table depth based on topographic wetness index. Using landcover classifications derived from L-band satellite synthetic aperture radar imagery, we simulated methane emissions for the Chaya River basin in western Siberia, an area that includes the Bakchar Bog, for a retrospective baseline period of 1980-1999, and evaluated their sensitivity to increases in temperature of 0-5 °C and increases in precipitation of 0-15%. The interactions of temperature and precipitation, through their effects on the water table depth, play an important role in determining methane emissions from these wetlands. The balance between these effects varies spatially, and their net effect depends in part on sub- grid topographic heterogeneity. Higher temperatures alone increase methane production in saturated areas, but cause those saturated areas to shrink in extent, resulting in a net reduction in methane emissions. Higher precipitation alone raises water tables and expands the saturated area, resulting in a net increase in methane emissions. Combining a temperature increase of 3 °C and an increase of 10% in precipitation, to represent the climate conditions likely in western Siberia at the end of this century, results in roughly a doubling of annual methane emissions. This work was carried out at the University of Washington, at Purdue University, and at the Jet Propulsion

  12. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  13. Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wajeeha Malik

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to have raised carbon emissions from 76 million tons in 1990 to 200 million tons in 2006. It is estimated that CO2 emissions with an average increase of 6.5% annually will grow to 482 million tons by 2020. The transport sector is a significant contributor to GHG emissions with an estimated 15million tons in 1990. With a proportionate increase in GHG emissions with the 100% increase in motor vehicles, the sector will be responsible for the emission of 30 million ton CO2 by 2020. According to data reviewed, the total petroleum consumption of Pakistan was 383 thousand barrels per day in 2008. Natural gas consumption was 1,088 billion cubic feet in 2007. Coal consumption reached 8.583 million short tons in 2007. In 2006, the total Carbon dioxide emissions from consumption of fossil fuels reached 125.59 million metric tons (EIA. Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and will affect water resources within the next two to three decades. Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss. Beside that, coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to inland intrusion and increased flooding from the sea. Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan. The endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise. The impact of climate change

  14. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, Richard E

    2013-08-20

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

  15. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huebler, Michael [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany); Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Environmental Economics and World Trade; Loeschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  16. Climate and mortality changes due to reductions in household cooking emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Tommi; Mielonen, Tero; Arola, Antti; Kokkola, Harri

    2016-04-01

    Household cooking is a significant cause for health and environmental problems in the developing countries. There are more than 3 billion people who use biomass for fuel in cooking stoves in their daily life. These cooking stoves use inadequate ventilation and expose especially women and children to indoor smoke. To reduce problems of the biomass burning, India launched an initiative to provide affordable and clean energy solutions for the poorest households by providing clean next-generation cooking stoves. The improved cooking stoves are expected to improve outdoor air quality and to reduce the climate-active pollutants, thus simultaneously slowing the climate change. Previous research has shown that the emissions of black carbon can be decreased substantially, as much as 90 % by applying better technology in cooking stoves. We have implemented reasonable (50% decrease) and best case (90% decrease) scenarios of the reductions in black and organic carbon due to improved cooking stoves in India into ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model. The global simulations of the scenarios will be used to study how the reductions of emissions in India affect the pollutant concentrations and radiation. The simulated reductions in particulate concentrations will also be used to estimate the decrease in mortality rates. Furthermore, we will study how the emission reductions would affect the global climate and mortality if a similar initiative would be applied in other developing countries.

  17. Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Walsh, Michael; Anenberg, Susan C.; VanDingen, Rita; Muller, Nicholas Z.; Austin, Jeff; Koch, Dorothy; Milly, George

    2011-01-01

    Non-CO2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road vehicle-emission standards for these pollutants in 2015 in many developing countries. Relative to no extra controls, the tight standards lead to annual benefits in 2030 and beyond of 120,000-280,000 avoided premature air pollution-related deaths, 6.1-19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone-related yield losses of major food crops, $US0.6-2.4 trillion avoided health damage and $US1.1-4.3 billion avoided agricultural damage, and mitigation of 0.20 (+0.14/-0.17) C of Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070. Tighter vehicle-emission standards are thus extremely likely to mitigate short-term climate change in most cases, in addition to providing large improvements in human health and food security. These standards will not reduce CO2 emissions, however, which is required to mitigate long-term climate change.

  18. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  19. Reducing the Polluting Emissions. A Source for Diminishing the Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilian M. DOBRESCU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The USA and the Western Europe are responsible for 2/3 of the CO2 emissions accumulated until today. On the other hand, Africa has produced only 3% of polluting emission since 1900 until today, by burning mineral fuels. Since 1992, the most industrialized countries have promised to help ôthe most vulnerable nations face the adverse consequences of climate changesö by supporting the costs of adaptation. The commitment was included in the convention frame that gave birth to the Kyoto Treaty, which was rejected by the George W. Bush Administration, even though the initial document, issued in 1992, had been signed by George Bush. The industrialized countries that signed the Kyoto Treaty have decided to create a special fund for ôclimate adaptationö. Hundreds of millions of dollars had to be used in order to diminish the impact of the global warming in the most exposed areas.Lately, maybe because the CO2 emissions increase due to human activities, the planet climate has changed for worse. 2007 was a key year in evaluating the reply the planet would give to the global overheating, mainly caused by the green-house effect and worsen by El Nino oceanic stream. This superposition of climate factors made 2007 to be one of the warmest years ever registered.

  20. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  1. Confronting the climate change challenge: discussing the role of rural India under cumulative emission budget approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current global climate policy architecture does not aim at stabilizing the greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere that may achieve the proclaimed 2 °C guard rail. An alternative approach that targets on limiting the global cumulative emission to accomplish such an outcome is put forward by German Advisory Board of Global Change (WBGU). This research work further elaborates the approach and its flexibility instrument i.e. carbon trading. As the approach visualises sharing of the carbon budget (750Gt CO2) equally to every human being (2.7 t CO2 per capita), India is the country with largest tradable surplus reflecting its low emission per capita and large population. The research work further analyzes the emission profile of rural India and the significance of its future emission pathways within the proposed framework. It also shows how low carbon development in India can assist in cost effective decarbonization of industrialized countries and mitigation of climate change, given a global climate treaty based on the WBGU approach.

  2. Great expectations. Can international emissions trading deliver an equitable climate regime?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change equity debates tend to focus on achieving a fair and global 'allocation' of emission rights among countries. Allocation proposals typically envision, if implicitly, two purposes for international emissions trading. First, trading is expected to serve as a cost-effective means of promoting compliance with emissions targets. Second, trading is posited as a means to generate financial transfers, typically from industrialized to transitioning and developing countries. This article investigates the common assumption that international emissions trading will effectively serve both of these purposes. We conclude that the two purposes might not be mutually supportive, and that efforts to use international emissions trading as a financial transfer mechanism may potentially undermine cost-effectiveness goals. International emissions trading on a global scale would create new risks in terms of both cost-effectiveness and environmental performance, some of which will be challenging to manage. In particular, uncertainties over market prices and trading eligibility, coupled with the costs of participation, may together be the Achilles heel of some allocation proposals that entail large financial transfers from industrialized to developing countries. Any proposal for an 'equitable' allocation of emission allowances, we conclude, must be cognizant of the risks and costs implied by a reliance on international emissions trading. We offer some suggestions to this end

  3. Impacts of Future Climate and Emission Changes on U.S. Air Quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Penrod, Ashley; Zhang, Yang; Wang, K.; Wu, Shiang Yuh; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2014-06-01

    Changes in climate and emissions will affect future air quality. In this work, simulations of present (2001-2005) and future (2026-2030) regional air quality are conducted with the newly released CMAQ version 5.0 to examine the individual and combined impacts of simulated future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over the U.S. Current (2001-2005) meteorological and chemical predictions are evaluated against observational data to assess the model’s capability in reproducing the seasonal differences. Overall, WRF and CMAQ perform reasonably well. Increased temperatures (up to 3.18 °C) and decreased ventilation (up to 157 m in planetary boundary layer height) are found in both future winter and summer, with more prominent changes in winter. Increases in future temperatures result in increased isoprene and terpene emissions in winter and summer, driving the increase in maximum 8-h average O3 (up to 5.0 ppb) over the eastern U.S. in winter while decreases in NOx emissions drive the decrease in O3 over most of the U.S. in summer. Future concentrations of PM2.5 in winter and summer and many of its components including organic matter in winter, ammonium and nitrate in summer, and sulfate in winter and summer, decrease due to decreases in primary anthropogenic emissions and the concentrations of secondary anthropogenic pollutants and increased precipitation in winter. Future winter and summer dry and wet deposition fluxes are spatially variable and increase with increasing surface resistance and precipitation (e.g., NH4+ and NO3- dry and wet deposition fluxes increase in winter over much of the U.S.), respectively, and decrease with a decrease in ambient particulate concentrations (e.g., SO42- dry and wet deposition fluxes decrease over the eastern U.S. in summer and winter). Sensitivity simulations show that anthropogenic emission projections dominate over changes in climate in their impacts on the U.S. air quality in the near future. Changes

  4. Nitrous oxide emission budgets and land-use-driven hotspots for organic soils in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leppelt, T; Dechow, R; Gebbert, S;

    2014-01-01

    Organic soils are a main source of direct emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), an important greenhouse gas (GHG). Observed N2O emissions from organic soils are highly variable in space and time, which causes high uncertainties in national emission inventories. Those uncertainties could be reduced wh...... the significant reduction potential by rewetting and extensification of agriculturally used peat soils....

  5. Simulating the Black Saturday 2009 smoke plume with an interactive composition-climate model: Sensitivity to emissions amount, timing, and injection height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Robert D.; Luo, Ming; Fromm, Mike; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Mangeon, Stéphane; Worden, John

    2016-04-01

    We simulated the high-altitude smoke plume from the early February 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in southeastern Australia using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first single-plume analysis of biomass burning emissions injected directly into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) using a full-complexity composition-climate model. We compared simulated carbon monoxide (CO) to a new Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer/Microwave Limb Sounder joint CO retrieval, focusing on the plume's initial transport eastward, anticyclonic circulation to the north of New Zealand, westward transport in the lower stratospheric easterlies, and arrival over Africa at the end of February. Our goal was to determine the sensitivity of the simulated plume to prescribed injection height, emissions amount, and emissions timing from different sources for a full-complexity model when compared to Aura. The most realistic plumes were obtained using injection heights in the UTLS, including one drawn from ground-based radar data. A 6 h emissions pulse or emissions tied to independent estimates of hourly fire behavior produced a more realistic plume in the lower stratosphere compared to the same emissions amount being released evenly over 12 or 24 h. Simulated CO in the plume was highly sensitive to the differences between emissions amounts estimated from the Global Fire Emissions Database and from detailed, ground-based estimates of fire growth. The emissions amount determined not only the CO concentration of the plume but also the proportion of the plume that entered the stratosphere. We speculate that this is due to either or both nonlinear CO loss with a weakened OH sink or plume self-lofting driven by shortwave absorption of the coemitted aerosols.

  6. Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekholm, T.; Soimakallio, S.; Hoehne, N.; Moltmann, S.; Syri, S.

    2008-11-15

    To reinforce the long-term commitment to climate change mitigation, the post-2012 climate policy framework is aimed to be completed by 2009. The new agreement needs to include a wider participation of parties, and therefore needs to address the effort sharing of countries. The mitigation capabilities and the responsibilities of countries do however vary significantly. This can, in principle, be overcome with a cap-and-trade system, with which the question of equity is addressed trough the allocation of emission allowances. A number of effort sharing schemes have been proposed. Effort sharing however suffers from a fundamental trade-off between detail and transparency on how the emission allocations are calculated. This study addresses this problem by comparing and combining the results from a transparent but simplified effort sharing model EVOC, and a detailed and due to its complexity seemingly non-transparent ETSAP-TIAM energy system model. The aim of the study is to evaluate the goodness of the initial effort sharing, particularly in terms of mitigation costs experienced by different regions in the scenarios. Based on the long-term energy-climate scenarios crafted with the TIAM model, we assess the resulting consequences in emission profiles and the energy system, concentrating especially on regional mitigation costs and emission trading. Two cases of market failures in emission trading are also considered. Finally we compare the mitigation potentials between the two models and estimate the effect of EVOC recalibration on the national emission allowances. The results of the study underline particularly the importance of detailed and reliable assumptions for the mitigation potentials of different countries in the effort sharing process. (orig.)

  7. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

  8. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

  9. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

  10. The importance of climate change and nitrogen use efficiency for future nitrous oxide emissions from agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kanter, David R.; Zhang, Xin; Mauzerall, Denise L.; Malyshev, Sergey; Shevliakova, Elena

    2016-09-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an important greenhouse gas and ozone depleting substance. Previous projections of agricultural N2O (the dominant anthropogenic source) show emissions changing in tandem, or at a faster rate than changes in nitrogen (N) consumption. However, recent studies suggest that the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization effect may increase plant N uptake, which could decrease soil N losses and dampen increases in N2O. To evaluate this hypothesis at a global scale, we use a process-based land model with a coupled carbon-nitrogen cycle to examine how changes in climatic factors, land-use, and N application rates could affect agricultural N2O emissions by 2050. Assuming little improvement in N use efficiency (NUE), the model projects a 24%–31% increase in global agricultural N2O emissions by 2040–2050 depending on the climate scenario—a relatively moderate increase compared to the projected increases in N inputs (42%–44%) and previously published emissions projections (38%–75%). This occurs largely because the CO2 fertilization effect enhances plant N uptake in several regions, which subsequently dampens N2O emissions. And yet, improvements in NUE could still deliver important environmental benefits by 2050: equivalent to 10 Pg CO2 equivalent and 0.6 Tg ozone depletion potential.

  11. From "Inspiration-driven" Research to "Industrial-strength" Research: Applying User-developed Climate Analytics at Large scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radhakrishnan, A.; Mason, E. E.; Langenhorst, A. R.; Balaji, V.; Nikonov, S.

    2014-12-01

    Numerous climate models, several parameters output from a vast range of climate scenarios -- most likely motivates a climate scientist to analyze a suite of available data to research and address a plethora of scientific questions, eg. occurrence of El Niño events or simply validate and compute specialized metrics for a specific climate field. Providing a platform for our scientists to work with data from different models both in-house and extending a similar approach to the application of climate analysis on data from different modeling centers is a key goal that will be addressed in this presentation. Model intercomparison projects, Earth System Grid Federation and knowledge exchange within the climate science community have all enabled successful establishment of "data standards and controlled vocabulary" . This opens key possibilities to facilitate techniques used to "explore" dataset(s) in the Big-Data archive and perform climate analyses following a simple, standardized templated approach. A typical pattern of use would be where the scientist works with a few datasets interactively to refine and extract a signal of a particular climate phenomenon. At this point data access patterns are random, as the analysis is exploratory. We call this the "inspiration-driven" phase of research. Subsequently, the scientist would need to apply her analysis to a much wider set of data: different models and scenarios from CMIP5 for example. This can be thought of as the "industrial" phase of research. We provide a pathway for user-developed analyses to transition from inspiration to industry. We will illustrate techniques being adopted at GFDL to develop analysis through interactive computational exploration on selected data; Provide analysis capabilities in batch workflows (using: Flexible Runtime Environment) and also web-based with data exploration mechanisms tapped from GFDL's Curator infrastructure. Comparing climate data both at the inter and intra-laboratory level

  12. Reducing nitrous oxide emissions to mitigate climate change and protect the ozone layer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Xu, Jianhua; Hu, Jianxin; Han, Jiarui

    2014-05-01

    Reducing nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions offers the combined benefits of mitigating climate change and protecting the ozone layer. This study estimates historical and future N2O emissions and explores the mitigation potential for China's chemical industry. The results show that (1) from 1990 to 2012, industrial N2O emissions in China grew by some 37-fold from 5.07 to 174 Gg (N2O), with total accumulated emissions of 1.26 Tg, and (2) from 2012 to 2020, the projected emissions are expected to continue growing rapidly from 174 to 561 Gg under current policies and assuming no additional mitigation measures. The total accumulated mitigation potential for this forecast period is about 1.54 Tg, the equivalent of reducing all the 2011 greenhouse gases from Australia or halocarbon ozone-depleting substances from China. Adipic acid production, the major industrial emission source, contributes nearly 80% of the industrial N2O emissions, and represents about 96.2% of the industrial mitigation potential. However, the mitigation will not happen without implementing effective policies and regulatory programs.

  13. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  14. Carbon Emission Right Allocation Under Climate Change%气候变化与碳排放权分配

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高广生

    2007-01-01

    The scientific fact with respect to climate change shows that human activities have resulted in the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration. The essential solution to climate change issue is to reduce or eliminate the excessive anthropogenic GHG emissions. Therefore, the allocation of carbon emission right (CER) involves the social economic development, people's life and existence rights of all countries. Based on the substantive issues of climate change, this paper analyses the basic properties of climate resources and CER, discusses the allocation schemes of CER and makes comparison to foreign CER allocation schemes. In addition, it also presents the important factors that affect CER allocation.

  15. The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Butt, E. W.; Rap, A.; Schmidt, A.; Scott, C. E.; Pringle, K. J.; Reddington, C. L.; Richards, N. A. D.; Woodhouse, M. T.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Yang, H.; Vakkari, V.; Stone, E. A.; Rupakheti, M.; Praveen, P. S.; van Zyl, P. G.; Beukes, J. P.; Josipovic, M.; Mitchell, E. J. S.; Sallu, S. M.; Forster, P. M.; Spracklen, D. V.

    2016-01-01

    Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (> 30 years of age) premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer) to be 308 000 (113 300-497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range) for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000-827 000) when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between -66 and +21 mW m-2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between -52 and -16 mW m-2, which is sensitive to the assumed size distribution of carbonaceous emissions

  16. Responses of non-methane biogenic volatile organic compound emissions to climate change in boreal and subarctic ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faubert, P.

    2010-07-01

    Non-methane biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (BVOCs) have important roles in the global atmospheric chemistry but their feedbacks to climate change are still unknown. This thesis reports one of the first estimates of BVOC emissions from boreal and subarctic ecosystems. Most importantly, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses to four effects of climate change in these ecosystems: (1) the direct effect of warming, and its indirect effects via (2) water table drawdown, (3) change in the vegetation composition, and (4) enhanced UV-B radiation. BVOC emissions were measured using a conventional chamber method in which the compounds were collected on adsorbent and later analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. On a subarctic heath, warming by only 1.9-2.5 degC doubled the monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions. Such a high increase of BVOC emissions under a conservative warming cannot be predicted by the current models, which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions from the Subarctic under climate change. On a subarctic peatland, enhanced UV-B did not affect the BVOC emissions but the water table level exerted the major effect. The water table drawdown experimentally applied on boreal peatland microcosms decreased the emissions of monoterpenes and other VOCs (BVOCs with a lifetime>1 d) for the hollows (wet microsites) and that of all BVOC groups for the lawns (moderately wet microsites). The warming treatment applied on the lawn microcosms decreased the isoprene emission. The removal of vascular plants in the hummock (dry microsites) microcosms decreased the emissions of monoterpenes while the emissions between the microcosms covered with Sphagnum moss and bare peat were not different. In conclusion, the results presented in this thesis indicate that climate change has complex effects on the BVOC emissions. These results make a significant contribution to improving the modeling of BVOC emissions for a better understanding of

  17. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China—An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely. - Highlights: • 45% Chinese carbon intensity target for 2020 implemented via emissions trading. • 1% GDP/welfare loss in 2020 and 2% in 2030 for a fixed emissions target after 2020. • 0.5 percentage points higher (lower) growth, increases (decreases) climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 by about 0.5 percentage points. • Similar macroeconomic effects for free allocation and full auctioning, but higher reductions in output under full auctioning in ETS sectors. • Restricted linking to EU emissions trading creates at best a small benefit for China

  18. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    OpenAIRE

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    2010-01-01

    Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as ...

  19. The climate impact of ship NOx emissions: An improved estimate accounting for plume chemistry

    OpenAIRE

    C. D. Holmes; Prather, M. J.; G. C. M. Vinken

    2014-01-01

    Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from maritime shipping produce ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH), which in turn destroy methane (CH4). The balance between this warming (due to O3) and cooling (due to CH4) determines the net effect of ship NOx on climate. Previous estimates of the chemical impact and radiative forcing (RF) of ship NOx have generally assumed that plumes of ship exhaust are instantly diluted into model grid cells spanning hundreds of kilometers, even thou...

  20. Climate-driven coral reorganisation influences aggressive behaviour in juvenile coral-reef fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Judith E.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.

    2016-06-01

    Globally, habitat degradation is altering the abundance and diversity of species in a variety of ecosystems. This study aimed to determine how habitat degradation, in terms of changing coral composition under climate change, affected abundance, species richness and aggressive behaviour of juveniles of three damselfishes ( Pomacentrus moluccensis, P. amboinensis and Dischistodus perspicillatus, in order of decreasing reliance on coral). Patch reefs were constructed to simulate two types of reefs: present-day reefs that are vulnerable to climate-induced coral bleaching, and reefs with more bleaching-robust coral taxa, thereby simulating the likely future of coral reefs under a warming climate. Fish communities were allowed to establish naturally on the reefs during the summer recruitment period. Climate-robust reefs had lower total species richness of coral-reef fishes than climate-vulnerable reefs, but total fish abundance was not significantly different between reef types (pooled across all species and life-history stages). The nature of aggressive interactions, measured as the number of aggressive chases, varied according to coral composition; on climate-robust reefs, juveniles used the substratum less often to avoid aggression from competitors, and interspecific aggression became relatively more frequent than intraspecific aggression for juveniles of the coral-obligate P. moluccensis. This study highlights the importance of coral composition as a determinant of behaviour and diversity of coral-reef fishes.

  1. Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTPP); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTPS). Both GTPP and GTPS are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTPP does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTPS is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTPS and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTPS retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP

  2. Aerosol exposure versus aerosol cooling of climate: what is the optimal emission reduction strategy for human health?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Löndahl

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Particles, climate change, and health have thought-provoking interactions. Air pollution is one of the largest environmental problems concerning human health. On the other hand, aerosol particles can have a cooling effect on climate and a reduction of those emissions may result in an increased temperature globally, which in turn may have negative health effects. The objective of this work was to investigate the "total health effects" of aerosol emissions, which include both exposure to particles and consequences for climate change initiated by particles. As a case study the "total health effect" from ship emissions was derived by subtracting the number of deaths caused by exposure with the estimated number of lives saved from the cooling effect of the emissions. The analysis showed that, with current level of scientific understanding, it could not be determined whether ship emissions are negative or positive for human health on a short time scale. This first attempt to approximate the combined effect of particle emissions on health shows that reductions of particulate air pollution will in some cases (black carbon have win-win effects on health and climate, but sometimes also cause a shift from particle exposure-related health effects towards an increasing risk of health consequences from climate change. Thus, measures to reduce aerosol emissions have to be coupled with climate change mitigation actions to achieve a full health benefit on a global level.

  3. Climate-driven variation in the intensity of a host-symbiont animal interaction along a broad elevation gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Meléndez

    Full Text Available Gradients of environmental stress may affect biotic interactions in unpredictable ways responding to climate variation, depending on the abiotic stress tolerance of interacting partners. Here, we study the effect of local climate on the intensity of feather mites in six mountain passerines along a 1400 m elevational gradient characterized by shifting temperature and rainfall. Although obligatory symbionts of warm-blooded organisms are assumed to live in mild and homeothermic environments, those inhabiting external, non-blood-irrigated body portions of the host organism, such as feather mites, are expected to endure exposure to the direct influence of a fluctuating climate. As expected, feather mite intensity declined with elevation in all bird species, a pattern that was also found in cold-adapted passerines that have typical alpine habits. The elevation cline was mainly explained by a positive effect of the average temperature upon mite intensity in five of the six species studied. Precipitation explained less variance in mite intensity than average temperature, and showed a negative correlation in half of the studied species. We found no climate-driven migration of mites along the wings of birds, no replacement of mite species along elevation gradients and no association with available food resources for mites (estimated by the size of the uropygial gland. This study suggests that ectosymbionts of warm-blooded animals may be highly sensitive to climatic variation and become less abundant under stressful environmental conditions, providing empirical evidence of the decline of specialized biotic interactions among animal species at high elevations.

  4. Technology Solutions Case Study: Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Williamson and R. Aldrich

    2015-09-01

    To better understand and characterize heating performance, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), monitored seven inverter-driven ASHPs across the northeast United States during the winter of 2013–2014.

  5. Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH from 1860-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, J. G.; Fiore, A. M.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Dunne, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4) since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH4 itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH, (τCH4_OH), in a suite of historical (1860-2005) and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations (2006-2100), conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3). From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5% increase in τCH4_OH due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NOx emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the τCH4_OH declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH4 growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH4 sink. Sensitivity simulations with CM3 suggest that the aerosol indirect effect (aerosol-cloud interactions) plays a significant role in cooling the CM3 climate. The projected decline in aerosols under all RCPs contributes to climate warming over the 21st century, which influences the future evolution of OH concentration and τCH4_OH. Projected changes in τCH4_OH from 2006 to 2100 range from -13% to +4%. The only projected increase occurs in the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5) due to the near-doubling of the CH4 abundance, reflecting a positive feedback on the climate system. The largest decrease occurs in the RCP4.5 scenario due to changes in short-lived climate forcing agents which

  6. Greenhouse gas emissions trading and complementary policies. Developing a smart mix for ambitious climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.

    2010-06-15

    A debate has - most notably as a result of the introduction of fixed caps within the framework of emissions trading - been raised about the need for using additional instruments of climate and energy policy. A common line of argument is that the targets set within the emissions trading scheme are going to be met with a high degree of certainty, and flexibility among the regulated stakeholders will lead to market-based discovery processes. Additional instruments would only generate additional costs and would therefore have to be rejected. However, closer analysis of these fundamental arguments shows that they are constructed on a very high level of abstraction and sometimes rely on strongly simplifying or idealising assumptions. Their theoretical assumptions are, at least in part, very questionable and do not correspond to conditions in the real world for climate and energy policy. At the same time the debate about policy instruments cannot be held autonomously of the specific context of the problem at hand. In this sense the very extensive (complete) and above all effective decarbonisation of the economies of industrialised countries in a comparatively short time frame is the key basic condition for the analysis, assessment and design of the climate policy mix. Essentially, the question is what the best instruments are for purging the whole economic system almost entirely of CO{sub 2} emissions within a period of only forty years. The introduction of emissions trading schemes for greenhouse gases in an increasing number of OECD countries undoubtedly constitutes an important landmark of climate policy. They: - provide a high degree of certainty in terms of meeting targets; - create, on the basis of a standardised price signal, a clearing mechanism for the broad spectrum of emission reduction options close to the market, at least in the short to medium term; and - represent, by means of linking, an interesting option in terms of the globalisation of climate policy

  7. Electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS semiconductor quantum dot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We demonstrate electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS single quantum dot embedded in a resonant cavity light emitting diode. Patterned Pd/Au top contacts are used to inject the charge carriers locally. Single quantum dot electroluminescence is obtained at T = 4 K from nanoapertures lithographically defined in the top contacts. At low current densities, antibunching with a value of g(2)(0) = 0.16 is achieved. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  8. Electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS semiconductor quantum dot

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quitsch, Wolf; Kuemmell, Tilmar; Bacher, Gerd [Werkstoffe der Elektrotechnik and CENIDE, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, Bismarckstrasse 81, 47057 Duisburg (Germany); Gust, Arne; Kruse, Carsten; Hommel, Detlef [Institut fuer Festkoerperphysik, Universitaet Bremen, Otto-Hahn-Allee 1, 28334 Bremen (Germany)

    2014-07-15

    We demonstrate electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS single quantum dot embedded in a resonant cavity light emitting diode. Patterned Pd/Au top contacts are used to inject the charge carriers locally. Single quantum dot electroluminescence is obtained at T = 4 K from nanoapertures lithographically defined in the top contacts. At low current densities, antibunching with a value of g{sup (2)}(0) = 0.16 is achieved. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  9. Electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe single quantum dot at 200 K

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quitsch, Wolf; Kümmell, Tilmar; Bacher, Gerd [Werkstoffe der Elektrotechnik and CENIDE, Universität Duisburg-Essen, Bismarckstraße 81, 47057 Duisburg (Germany); Gust, Arne; Kruse, Carsten; Hommel, Detlef [Institut für Festkörperphysik, Universität Bremen, Otto-Hahn-Allee 1, 28334 Bremen (Germany)

    2014-09-01

    High temperature operation of an electrically driven single photon emitter based on a single epitaxial quantum dot is reported. CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS quantum dots are embedded into a p-i-n diode architecture providing almost background free excitonic and biexcitonic electroluminescence from individual quantum dots through apertures in the top contacts. Clear antibunching with g{sup 2}(τ = 0) = 0.28 ± 0.20 can be tracked up to T = 200 K, representing the highest temperature for electrically triggered single photon emission from a single quantum dot device.

  10. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E.; Wu, Weixiang

    2016-04-01

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg‑1 dry weight soil, dws season‑1 to 112.2 mg kg‑1 dws season‑1) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change.

  11. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E; Wu, Weixiang

    2016-01-01

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg(-1) dry weight soil, dws season(-1) to 112.2 mg kg(-1) dws season(-1)) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change. PMID:27090814

  12. How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at National Parks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Val Martin

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available We use a global coupled chemistry-climate-land model (CESM to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 on the United States with a focus on National Parks (NPs and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emissions reductions. Under the RCP4.5, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb, with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US EPA NAAQS of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m−3; ~50%, with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m−3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10–15 deciviews; >75 km in visibility range, although some parks over the western US (40–74% of total sites in the US may not reach the 2050 target to restore visibility to natural conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study suggests that air quality in 2050 will be primarily controlled by anthropogenic emission patterns. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2–3 ppb with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making.

  13. A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glomsrød, Solveig; Wei, Taoyuan; Aamaas, Borgar; Lund, Marianne T; Samset, Bjørn H

    2016-10-15

    Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is often thought to be at odds with economic growth and poverty reduction. Using an integrated assessment modeling approach, we find that China can cap CO2 emissions at 2015 level while sustaining economic growth and reducing the urban-rural income gap by a third by 2030. As a result, the Chinese economy becomes less dependent on exports and investments, as household consumption emerges as a driver behind economic growth, in line with current policy priorities. The resulting accumulated greenhouse gas emissions reduction 2016-2030 is about 60billionton (60Mg) CO2e. A CO2 tax combined with income re-distribution initially leads to a modest warming due to reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. However, the net effect is eventually cooling when the effect of reduced CO2 emissions dominates due to the long-lasting climate response of CO2. The net reduction in global temperature for the remaining part of this century is about 0.03±0.02°C, corresponding in magnitude to the cooling from avoiding one year of global CO2 emissions.

  14. A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glomsrød, Solveig; Wei, Taoyuan; Aamaas, Borgar; Lund, Marianne T; Samset, Bjørn H

    2016-10-15

    Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is often thought to be at odds with economic growth and poverty reduction. Using an integrated assessment modeling approach, we find that China can cap CO2 emissions at 2015 level while sustaining economic growth and reducing the urban-rural income gap by a third by 2030. As a result, the Chinese economy becomes less dependent on exports and investments, as household consumption emerges as a driver behind economic growth, in line with current policy priorities. The resulting accumulated greenhouse gas emissions reduction 2016-2030 is about 60billionton (60Mg) CO2e. A CO2 tax combined with income re-distribution initially leads to a modest warming due to reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. However, the net effect is eventually cooling when the effect of reduced CO2 emissions dominates due to the long-lasting climate response of CO2. The net reduction in global temperature for the remaining part of this century is about 0.03±0.02°C, corresponding in magnitude to the cooling from avoiding one year of global CO2 emissions. PMID:27295595

  15. Nitrogen transformations in intensive aquaculture system and its implication to climate change through nitrous oxide emission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Zhen; Lee, Jae Woo; Chandran, Kartik; Kim, Sungpyo; Sharma, Keshab; Brotto, Ariane Coelho; Khanal, Samir Kumar

    2013-02-01

    The rapid development of aquaculture could result in significant environmental concerns such as eutrophication and climate change. However, to date, very few studies have been conducted to investigate nitrogen transformations in aquaculture systems; and specifically the emission of nitrous oxide (N(2)O), which is an important greenhouse gas and ozone-depleting substance. In this study, nitrogen transformations in intensive laboratory-scale Chinese catfish (Clarias fuscus) aquaculture systems were investigated by identifying and quantifying N(2)O emissions. Results indicated that about 1.3% of the nitrogen input was emitted as N(2)O gas. Dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations and feeding rates had significant effects on N(2)O emissions. Higher N(2)O emissions were obtained in aquaculture systems with lower DO concentrations and higher feeding rates. Both nitrification and denitrification appeared to be responsible for the emissions of N(2)O. Key factors which correlated with the N(2)O emission rate in aquaculture systems were NO(2)(-), DO and total ammonia nitrogen concentrations.

  16. Carbon emissions from U.S. ethylene production under climate change policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruth, Matthias; Amato, Anthony D; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur

    2002-01-15

    This paper presents the results from a dynamic computer model of U.S. ethylene production, designed to explore implications of alternative climate change policies for the industry's energy use and carbon emissions profiles. The model applies to the aggregate ethylene industry but distinguishes its main cracker types, fuels used as feedstocks and for process energy, as well as the industry's capital vintage structure and vintage-specific efficiencies. Results indicate that policies which increase the cost of carbon of process energy-such as carbon taxes or carbon permit systems-are relatively blunt instruments for cutting carbon emissions from ethylene production. In contrast, policies directly affecting the relative efficiencies of new to old capital-such as R&D stimuli or accelerated depreciation schedules-may be more effective in leveraging the industry's potential for carbon emissions reductions.

  17. A Cancun stake: to revitalize climate cooperation while improving transparency about national greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having recalled the instruments which are available for the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) to ensure an as much as transparent as possible information transmission between states about greenhouse gas emissions, this article questions the way the Copenhagen agreement can be implemented while considering the discussions which took place. It draws lessons from other previous examples of international cooperation: WTO agreements, the Clean Development Mechanism. Three propositions are made in the perspective of the Cancun conference: to create a reliable world inventory of emissions, to organize cooperation with countries wishing to define statistics for their emission monitoring, and to reinforce transparency and control of measures (with the MRV criteria) which are subsidized by the international community

  18. Assessment of biomass open burning emissions in Indonesia and potential climate forcing impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permadi, Didin Agustian; Kim Oanh, Nguyen Thi

    2013-10-01

    This paper presents an emission inventory (EI) for biomass open burning (OB) sources including forest, agro-residue and municipal solid waste (MSW) in Indonesia for year 2007. The EI covered toxic air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) and was presented as annual and monthly average for every district, and further on a grid of 0.25° × 0.25°. A rigorous analysis of activity data and emission factor ranges was done to produce the low, best and high emission estimates for each species. Development of EI methodology for MSW OB which, to our best knowledge, has not been presented in detail in the literature was a focus of this paper. The best estimates of biomass OB emission of toxic air pollutants for the country, in Gg, were: 9.6 SO2; 98 NOx; 7411 CO; 335 NMVOC; 162 NH3; 439 PM10; 357 PM2.5; 24 BC; and 147 OC. The best emission estimates of GHGs, in Gg, were: 401 CH4, 57,247 CO2; and 3.6 N2O. The low and high values of the emission estimates for different species were found to range from -86% to +260% of the corresponding best estimates. Crop residue OB contributed more than 80% of the total biomass OB emissions, followed by forest fire of 2-12% (not including peat soil fire emission) and MSW (1-8%). An inter-annual active fires count for Indonesia showed relatively low values in 2007 which may be attributed to the high rainfall intensity under the influence of La Niña climate pattern in the year. Total estimated net climate forcing from OB in Indonesia was 110 (20 year horizon) and 73 (100 year horizon) Tg CO2 equivalents which is around 0.9-1.1% of that reported for the global biomass OB for both time horizons. The spatial distribution showed higher emissions in large urban areas in Java and Sumatra Island, while the monthly emissions indicated higher values during the dry months of August-October.

  19. A reconstruction of policy-driven innovations to reduce Dutch car emissions 1960-2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walta, L.; Annema, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    One of the main drawbacks of mobility are the traffic-related emissions of air pollutants – e.g. nitrogen oxides (NOx) – and greenhouse gases – e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2). In the past governments all over the world aimed at technological innovations to limit the emissions from traffic. Using insight

  20. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model. PMID:27665707

  1. High Resolution Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand, Crop Nutrient Usage and GHG emissions, Similkameen Watershed, British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmasoudi, S.; Byrne, J. M.; Kroebel, R.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.; McKenzie, R. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Similkameen watershed in southern British Columbia, Canada is expected to warm substantially in the coming decades. A higher proportion of winter rain to snow and an earlier onset of spring snowmelt are likely to result in lower spring stream flow peaks. The reduction in winter water storage, combined with longer, warmer, and drier summers, poses a challenge for water resources in an irrigation-based agricultural watershed. There are already substantial irrigation developments, and water demands are expected to increase to maintain current agricultural production, further stressing a shrinking summer water supply. Agriculture releases significant amounts of CO2, CH4 and N2O to the atmosphere, accounting for approximately 8% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Canada, excluding CO2 emissions from fuels. Agricultural GHG fluxes are complex but the active management of agricultural systems offers possibilities for mitigating GHG emissions. Although GHG emissions derived from soil have been researched for several decades, there are still geographic regions and agricultural systems that have not been well characterized. This work will address a series of questions for the Similkameen watershed. For a range of climate scenarios, we will: (i) use the GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model to simulate historical and future water supplies; (ii) link GENESYS and AquaCrop models to assess climate driven changes in water requirement and associated crop productivity; and (iii) link GENESYS and HOLOS (whole-farm model and software program that estimates GHG emissions) to estimate farm and regional level GHG emissions and seasonal nutrient balance for the crops in the watershed.

  2. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  3. Climate driven life histories: the case of the Mediterranean storm petrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Soldatini

    Full Text Available Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time.

  4. Aerosol exposure versus aerosol cooling of climate: what is the optimal emission reduction strategy for human health?

    OpenAIRE

    Löndahl, J.; Swietlicki, E; Lindgren, E.; Loft, S

    2010-01-01

    Particles, climate change, and health have thought-provoking interactions. Air pollution is one of the largest environmental problems concerning human health. On the other hand, aerosol particles can have a cooling effect on climate and a reduction of those emissions may result in an increased temperature globally, which in turn may have negative health effects. The objective of this work was to investigate the "total health effects" of aerosol emissions, which include both exposure to partic...

  5. Assessing “dangerous climate change”: required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature

    OpenAIRE

    James Hansen; Pushker Kharecha; Makiko Sato; Valerie Masson-Delmotte; Frank Ackerman; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Ove Hoegh-Guldberg; Shi-Ling Hsu; Camille Parmesan; Johan Rockstrom; Rohling, Eelco J.; Jeffrey Sachs; Pete Smith; Konrad Steffen

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere a...

  6. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    OpenAIRE

    Juan A Añel; Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Paul J Hearty; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere a...

  7. Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Experimental work is an essential component in training future soil scientists. Soil CO2 emission is a key issue because of the potential impacts of this process on the greenhouse effect. The amount of organic carbon stored in soils worldwide is about 1600 gigatons (Gt) compared to 750 Gt in the atmosphere mostly in the form of CO2. Thus, if soil respiration increased slightly so that just 10% of the soil carbon pool was converted to CO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could increase by one-fifth. General circulation model predictions indicate atmosphere warming between 2 and 5°C (IPCC 2007) and precipitation changes ranging from about -15 to +30%. Traditionally, release of CO2 was thought to occur only in an intracellular environment; however, recently CO2 emissions have been in irradiated soil, in the absence of microorganisms (Maire et al., 2013). Moreover, soil plays a role in the stabilization of respiration enzymes promoting CO2 release after microorganism death. Here, we propose to improve CO2 emission experiments commonly used in soil biology to investigate: 1) effects of climatic factors on soil CO2 emissions, and 2) rates of extracellular respiration in soils and how these rates are affected by environmental factors. Experiment designed to assess the effect of climate change can be conducted either in field conditions under different ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland) or in a greenhouse using simple soil chambers. The interactions of climate change in CO2 emissions are investigated using climate-manipulation experiment that can be adapted to field or greenhouse conditions (e.g. Mc Daniel et al., 2013). The experimental design includes a control plot (without soil temperature and rain manipulation) a warming treatment as well as wetting and/or drying treatments. Plots are warmed to the target temperature by procedures such as infrared heaters (field) or radiant cable (greenhouse). To analyze extracellular respiration, rates of CO2

  8. Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

    2014-05-01

    The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect

  9. Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime from 1860–2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Naik

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4 since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH4 itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of tropospheric methane lifetime in a suite of historical (1860–2005 and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP simulations (2006–2100, conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3. From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5% increase in CH4 lifetime due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NOx emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the methane lifetime declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH4 growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH4 sink. The aerosol indirect effect plays a significant role in the CM3 climate and thus in the future evolution of the methane lifetime, due to the rapid projected decline of aerosols under all four RCPs. In all scenarios, the methane lifetime decreases (by 5–13% except for the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5, where it increases by 4% due to the near-doubling of the CH4 abundance, reflecting a positive feedback on the climate system. In the RCP4.5 scenario changes in short-lived climate forcing agents reinforce climate warming and enhance OH, leading to a more-than-doubling of the decrease in methane lifetime from 2006 to 2100 relative to a simulation in which only well-mixed greenhouse gases are

  10. Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime from 1860-2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, J. G.; Fiore, A. M.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.; Dunne, J. P.

    2012-07-01

    With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4) since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH4 itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of tropospheric methane lifetime in a suite of historical (1860-2005) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations (2006-2100), conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3). From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5% increase in CH4 lifetime due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the methane lifetime declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH4 growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH4 sink. The aerosol indirect effect plays a significant role in the CM3 climate and thus in the future evolution of the methane lifetime, due to the rapid projected decline of aerosols under all four RCPs. In all scenarios, the methane lifetime decreases (by 5-13%) except for the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5), where it increases by 4% due to the near-doubling of the CH4 abundance, reflecting a positive feedback on the climate system. In the RCP4.5 scenario changes in short-lived climate forcing agents reinforce climate warming and enhance OH, leading to a more-than-doubling of the decrease in methane lifetime from 2006 to 2100 relative to a simulation in which only well-mixed greenhouse gases are allowed to change

  11. A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tol, Richard S. J.; Berntsen, Terje K.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.

    2012-12-01

    Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost-benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost-benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost-benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP.

  12. Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long-term climate experiments up to the year 2300 have been conducted using two full-scale complex Earth system models (ESMs), CESM1(BGC) and MIROC-ESM, for a CO2 emissions reduction pathway, termed Z650, where annual CO2 emissions peak at 11 PgC in 2020, decline by 50% every 30 years, and reach zero in 2160. The results have been examined by focusing on the approximate linear relationship between the temperature increase and cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the temperature increase is nearly proportional to the cumulative CO2 emissions in both models, this relationship does not necessarily provide a robust basis for the restriction of CO2 emissions because it is substantially modulated by non-CO2 forcing. CO2-induced warming, estimated from the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the models, indicates an approximate compensation of nonlinear changes between fast-mode responses to concentration changes at less than 10 years and slow-mode response at more than 100 years due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. In this estimate, CESM1(BGC) closely approximates a linear trend of 1.7 °C per 1000 PgC, whereas MIROC-ESM shows a deviation toward higher temperatures after the emissions peak, from 1.8 °C to 2.4 °C per 1000 PgC over the range of 400–850 PgC cumulative emissions corresponding to years 2000–2050. The evolution of temperature under zero emissions, 2160–2300, shows a slight decrease of about 0.1 °C per century in CESM1(BGC), but remains almost constant in MIROC-ESM. The fast-mode response toward the equilibrium state decreases with a decrease in the airborne fraction owing to continued CO2 uptake (carbon cycle inertia), whereas the slow-mode response results in more warming owing to continued heat uptake (thermal inertia). Several specific differences are noted between the two models regarding the degree of this compensation and in some key regional aspects associated with sustained warming and long-term climate risks. Overall, elevated temperatures

  13. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consum

  14. Land Use Changes in Northeast China Driven by Human Activities and Climatic Variation

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Zongming; LIU Zhiming; SONG Kaishan; ZHANG Bai; ZHANG Sumei; LIU Dianwei; REN Chunying; YANG Fei

    2009-01-01

    Human-induced land use/cover change (LUCC) forms an important component of global environmental change. Therefore, it is important to study land use/cover and its change at local, regional and global scales. In this pa-per we conducted the study of land use change in Northeast China, one of the most important agricultural zones of the nation. From 1986 to 2000, according to the study results obtained from Landsat images, widespread changes in land use/cover took place in the study area. Grassland, marsh, water body and woodland decreased by 9864, 3973, 1367 and 10,052km2, respectively. By comparison, paddy field, dry farmland, and built-up land expanded by 7339, 17193 and 700km2, respectively. Those changes bore an interactive relationship with the environment, especially climate change.On the one hand, climate warming created a potential environment for grassland and marsh to be changed to farmland as more crops could thrive in the warmer climate, and for dry farmland to paddy field. On the other hand, the changed surface cover modified the local climate. Those changes, in turn, have adversely influenced the local environment by accelerating land degradation. In terms of socio-economie driving forces, population augment, regional economic de-velopment, and national and provincial policies were confirmed as main driving factors for land use change.

  15. Testing a method for analyzing the effect of parameter change in climate driven ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.; Grasman, J.; Selten, F.M.; Gee, de M.

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we consider a herbivore-predator metapopulation model, consisting of two patches. Only the herbivores are allowed to migrate between the patches. Furthermore, the intrinsic growth rates of the herbivores depend on climatic fluctuations. Our objective is the conservation of the herbivo

  16. Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pellissier, Loïc; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee;

    2016-01-01

    High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since...

  17. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems. Results after first growing season and mid term status report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.;

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3oC increase in temperature with morevigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought...

  18. Tracking the CME-driven shock wave on 2012 March 5 and radio triangulation of associated radio emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a multiwavelength study of the 2012 March 5 solar eruptive event, with an emphasis on the radio triangulation of the associated radio bursts. The main points of the study are reconstruction of the propagation of shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using radio observations and finding the relative positions of the CME, the CME-driven shock wave, and its radio signatures. For the first time, radio triangulation is applied to different types of radio bursts in the same event and performed in a detailed way using goniopolarimetric observations from STEREO/Waves and WIND/Waves spacecraft. The event on 2012 March 5 was associated with a X1.1 flare from the NOAA AR 1429 situated near the northeast limb, accompanied by a full halo CME and a radio event comprising long-lasting interplanetary type II radio bursts. The results of the three-dimensional reconstruction of the CME (using SOHO/LASCO, STEREO COR, and HI observations), and modeling with the ENLIL cone model suggest that the CME-driven shock wave arrived at 1 AU at about 12:00 UT on March 7 (as observed by SOHO/CELIAS). The results of radio triangulation show that the source of the type II radio burst was situated on the southern flank of the CME. We suggest that the interaction of the shock wave and a nearby coronal streamer resulted in the interplanetary type II radio emission.

  19. Spontaneous Emission from a Driven Atom Embedded in a Photonic Crystal

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIE Shuang-Yuan; YANG Ya-Ping; CHENG Hong; ZHU Shi-Yao; WU Xiang

    2000-01-01

    The properties of the spontaneous emission from a three-level atom with an external driving field in a photonic crystal are studied. The population in the two upper levels displays complete decay or oscillatory behavior,depending on the initial atomic state and the relative position of the two upper levels from the forbidden gap.The intensity and the phase of the external field can also affect spontaneous emission from the atom.

  20. Mamizu climate policy: an evaluation of Japanese carbon emissions reduction targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This letter evaluates Japan's so-called 'Mamizu' climate policies proposed in mid-2009 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the Japanese economy for short-term and long-term targets. The letter uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future Japanese population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization consistent with the targets and various rates of economic growth). Both approaches indicate that the Japanese economy would have to achieve rates of decarbonization of 2.6% to meet a 2020 target of reducing emissions by 15% below 2005 levels, and 5.0% to meet a 2050 target of an 80% reduction below 2005 levels. A target of 25% below 1990 emissions proposed by the opposition party (which subsequently formed a government following elections in August 2009) implies a rate of decarbonization of 4.6% annually to 2020. The letter argues that international criticism of Japanese Mamizu climate policy proposals as being too weak was unfounded, and if anything, the proposals may have been too ambitious. In either case, climate policy would be strengthened through the support of a diversity of approaches to decarbonization.

  1. Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Lee, Yunha; Faluvegi, Greg

    2016-05-01

    An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 °C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies (for example, refs ,), but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 °C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid ~0.03 °C global warming in 2030 (0.15 °C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid ~0.05-0.07 °C 2030 warming (~0.25 °C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent ~175,000 premature deaths, with ~22,000 (11,000-96,000 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent ~120,000 premature deaths and ~14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at ~US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050 billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming ~5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.

  2. Increasing streamflow forecast lead time for snowmelt-driven catchment based on large-scale climate patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalra, Ajay; Ahmad, Sajjad; Nayak, Anurag

    2013-03-01

    This study focuses on improving the spring-summer streamflow forecast lead time using large scale climate patterns. An artificial intelligence type data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM), was developed incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations to increase the forecast lead time. The application of SVM model is tested on three unimpaired gages in the North Platte River Basin. Seasonal averages of oceanic-atmospheric indices for the period of 1940-2007 are used to generate spring-summer streamflow volumes with 3-, 6- and 9-month lead times. The results reveal a strong association between coupled indices compared to their individual effects. The best streamflow estimates are obtained at 6-month compared to 3-month and 9-month lead times. The proposed modeling technique is expected to provide useful information to water managers and help in better managing the water resources and the operation of water systems.

  3. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  4. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  5. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaugrand, G.; Edwards, M.; Brander, Keith;

    2008-01-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt...... ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity...... and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod...

  6. Climate-driven sediment aggradation and incision since the late Pleistocene in the NW Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Saptarshi; Thiede, Rasmus C.; Schildgen, Taylor F.; Wittmann, Hella; Bookhagen, Bodo; Scherler, Dirk; Jain, Vikrant; Strecker, Manfred R.

    2016-09-01

    Deciphering the response of sediment routing systems to climatic forcing is fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on landscape evolution. In the Kangra Basin (northwest Sub-Himalaya, India), upper Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescales of 103 to 105 yr. To evaluate the potential influence of climate change on these fluctuations, we compare the timing of aggradation and incision phases recorded within remnant alluvial fans and terraces with climate archives. New surface-exposure dating of six terrace levels with in-situ cosmogenic 10Be indicates the onset of incision phases. Two terrace surfaces from the highest level (T1) sculpted into the oldest preserved alluvial fan (AF1) date back to 53.4 ± 3.2 ka and 43.0 ± 2.7 ka (1σ). T2 surfaces sculpted into the remnants of AF1 have exposure ages of 18.6 ± 1.2 ka and 15.3 ± 0.9 ka, while terraces sculpted into the upper Pleistocene-Holocene fan (AF2) provide ages of 9.3 ± 0.4 ka (T3), 7.1 ± 0.4 ka (T4), 5.2 ± 0.4 ka (T5) and 3.6 ± 0.2 ka (T6). Together with previously published OSL ages yielding the timing of aggradation, we find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon. During periods of increased monsoon intensity and post-Last Glacial Maximum glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux, whereas periods of weakened monsoon intensity or lower sediment supply coincide with incision.

  7. Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

  8. Climate-driven coral reorganisation influences aggressive behaviour in juvenile coral-reef fishes

    OpenAIRE

    Kok, Judith E.; Graham, Nicholas Anthony James; Hoogenboom, Mia O.

    2016-01-01

    Globally, habitat degradation is altering the abundance and diversity of species in a variety of ecosystems. This study aimed to determine how habitat degradation, in terms of changing coral composition under climate change, affected abundance, species richness and aggressive behaviour of juveniles of three damselfishes (Pomacentrus moluccensis, P. amboinensis and Dischistodus perspicillatus, in order of decreasing reliance on coral). Patch reefs were constructed to simulate two types of reef...

  9. Contribution of physical modelling to climate-driven landslide hazard mapping: an alpine test site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandromme, R.; Desramaut, N.; Baills, A.; Hohmann, A.; Grandjean, G.; Sedan, O.; Mallet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this work is to develop a methodology for integrating climate change scenarios into quantitative hazard assessment and especially their precipitation component. The effects of climate change will be different depending on both the location of the site and the type of landslide considered. Indeed, mass movements can be triggered by different factors. This paper describes a methodology to address this issue and shows an application on an alpine test site. Mechanical approaches represent a solution for quantitative landslide susceptibility and hazard modeling. However, as the quantity and the quality of data are generally very heterogeneous at a regional scale, it is necessary to take into account the uncertainty in the analysis. In this perspective, a new hazard modeling method is developed and integrated in a program named ALICE. This program integrates mechanical stability analysis through a GIS software taking into account data uncertainty. This method proposes a quantitative classification of landslide hazard and offers a useful tool to gain time and efficiency in hazard mapping. However, an expertise approach is still necessary to finalize the maps. Indeed it is the only way to take into account some influent factors in slope stability such as heterogeneity of the geological formations or effects of anthropic interventions. To go further, the alpine test site (Barcelonnette area, France) is being used to integrate climate change scenarios into ALICE program, and especially their precipitation component with the help of a hydrological model (GARDENIA) and the regional climate model REMO (Jacob, 2001). From a DEM, land-cover map, geology, geotechnical data and so forth the program classifies hazard zones depending on geotechnics and different hydrological contexts varying in time. This communication, realized within the framework of Safeland project, is supported by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological

  10. Is Carbon Offsetting an Elaborate Charade? Climate Change: the Mirage of Greenhouse Gas Emission Compensation Mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is now a massive scientific consensus around global warming and the subject is a major focus of media interest in most industrialized countries. The man-made origin of the phenomenon is also generally accepted; hence the efforts expended by those in government, the international community, environmental organizations etc. to limit its scope by acting on its main driver, greenhouse gas emissions. It is in this context that a market in the voluntary compensation of greenhouse gas emissions has developed in recent years. This is known as the ''voluntary carbon offsetting market'' and consists in selling activities or projects that are supposed, in the medium or long term, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby compensating for the climatically damaging effects of the purchasers' current activities. In other words, buyers may be said to be giving themselves a clear conscience about today's emissions by paying for an act of emission-reduction tomorrow. Though the principle may seem praiseworthy, on closer inspection the idea of carbon offsetting, as currently on offer, turns out to be deceptive. Augustin Fragniere demonstrates the point here with a precise analysis of the estimates and forecasts available in this field (showing how disputable the up-front emissions assessments are), and also of the spatial and temporal dimensions that are very largely concealed by the players in the carbon offsetting market. He shows, lastly, that carbon offsetting mechanisms lead to action being postponed, with an aggravation of the harm done and an increased need for action in the future as a consequence, whereas concrete initiatives to promote behavioural change in the present would have both quicker and clearer effects on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

  11. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Driven by the Transportation of Goods Associated with French Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Troy R; Dente, Sebastien M R

    2010-11-15

    The transportation of goods plays a significant role in the overall greenhouse gas emissions from consumption. This study investigates the connections between French household consumption and production and transportation-related emissions throughout product supply chains. Here a two-region, environmentally extended input-output model is combined with a novel detailed, physical-unit transportation model to examine the connection between product, location of production, choice of transport mode, and greenhouse gas emissions. Total emissions associated with French household consumption are estimated to be 627 MtCO2e, or 11 tCO2e per capita. Of these, 3% are associated with the transportation of goods within France and 10% with transport of goods outside or into France. We find that most transport originating in northern Europe is by road, whereas most transport from other regions is conducted by sea and ocean transport. Rail, inland water, and air transportation play only a minor role in terms of mass, tonne-kilometers, and greenhouse gas emissions. By product, transport of coal and coke and intermediate goods make the largest contribution to overall freight transport emissions associated with French household consumption. In terms of mass, most goods are transported by road while in terms of tonne-kilometers, sea and ocean transport plays the largest role. Road transport contributes the highest share to the transport of all goods with the exceptions of coal and coke and petroleum. We examine the potential for emissions reductions associated with shifting 10% of direct imports by air freight to sea and ocean or road transport and find that the potential reductions are less than 0.03% of total emissions associated with French consumption. We also consider shifting 10% of direct imports by road transport to rail or inland water and find potential reductions on the order of 0.4−0.5% of the total or 3−4% of the freight transport emissions associated with French

  12. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Driven by the Transportation of Goods Associated with French Consumption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawkins, Troy R; Dente, Sebastien M R

    2010-11-15

    The transportation of goods plays a significant role in the overall greenhouse gas emissions from consumption. This study investigates the connections between French household consumption and production and transportation-related emissions throughout product supply chains. Here a two-region, environmentally extended input-output model is combined with a novel detailed, physical-unit transportation model to examine the connection between product, location of production, choice of transport mode, and greenhouse gas emissions. Total emissions associated with French household consumption are estimated to be 627 MtCO2e, or 11 tCO2e per capita. Of these, 3% are associated with the transportation of goods within France and 10% with transport of goods outside or into France. We find that most transport originating in northern Europe is by road, whereas most transport from other regions is conducted by sea and ocean transport. Rail, inland water, and air transportation play only a minor role in terms of mass, tonne-kilometers, and greenhouse gas emissions. By product, transport of coal and coke and intermediate goods make the largest contribution to overall freight transport emissions associated with French household consumption. In terms of mass, most goods are transported by road while in terms of tonne-kilometers, sea and ocean transport plays the largest role. Road transport contributes the highest share to the transport of all goods with the exceptions of coal and coke and petroleum. We examine the potential for emissions reductions associated with shifting 10% of direct imports by air freight to sea and ocean or road transport and find that the potential reductions are less than 0.03% of total emissions associated with French consumption. We also consider shifting 10% of direct imports by road transport to rail or inland water and find potential reductions on the order of 0.4−0.5% of the total or 3−4% of the freight transport emissions associated with French

  13. Climate Protection Policy with China and the USA after 2012: Cost Reduction through Emissions Trading and Technological Cooperation

    OpenAIRE

    Claudia Kemfert

    2005-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions should be stabilized to today's level to prevent harmful climate damage.The countries that have signed the Kyoto Protocol committed themselves to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions over the period 2008 to 2012, but only to a very limited extent. The USA decided not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol for various reasons. Furthermore, fast-growing economies like China are about to catch up with the USA in terms of their energy consumption and gas emissions. Therefore, in t...

  14. Evaluation of metrics and baselines for tracking greenhouse gas emissions trends: Recommendations for the California climate action registry

    OpenAIRE

    Price, Lynn; Murtishaw, Scott; Worrell, Ernst

    2003-01-01

    Executive Summary: The California Climate Action Registry, which was initially established in 2000 and began operation in Fall 2002, is a voluntary registry for recording annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of the Registry is to assist California businesses and organizations in their efforts to inventory and document emissions in order to establish a baseline and to document early actions to increase energy efficiency and decrease GHG emissions. The State of California has...

  15. Towards a climate-driven dengue decision support system for Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Cazelles, Bernard; Paul, Richard; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Environmental explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to

  16. Synchrotron emission driven by the Cherenkov-drift instability in active galactic nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Osmanov, Zaza

    2012-01-01

    In the present paper we study generation of the synchrotron emission by means of the feedback of Cherenkov drift waves on the particle distribution via the diffusion process. It is shown that despite the efficient synchrotron losses the excited Cherenkov drift instability leads to the quasi-linear diffusion (QLD), effect of which is balanced by dissipation factors and as a result the pitch angles are prevented from damping, maintaining the corresponding synchrotron emission. The model is analyzed for a wide range of physical parameters and it is shown that the mechanism of QLD guarantees the generation of electromagnetic radiation from soft $X$-rays up to soft $\\gamma$-rays, strongly correlated with Cherenkov drift emission ranging from IR up to UV energy domains.

  17. Reverse Shock Emission Driven By Post-Merger Millisecond Magnetar Winds: Effects of the Magnetization Parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, L D; Dai, Z G

    2016-01-01

    The study of short-duration gamma-ray bursts provides growing evidence that a good fraction of double neutron star mergers lead to the formation of stable millisecond magnetars. The launch of Poynting flux by the millisecond magnetars could leave distinct electromagnetic signatures that reveal the energy dissipation processes in the magnetar wind. In previous studies (Wang & Dai 2013b; Wang et al. 2015), we assume that the magnetar wind becomes completely lepton-dominated so that electrons/positrons in the magnetar wind are accelerated by a diffusive shock. However, theoretical modeling of pulsar wind nebulae shows that in many cases the magnetic field energy in the pulsar wind may be strong enough to suppress diffusive shock acceleration. In this paper, we investigate the reverse shock emission as well as the forward shock emission with an arbitrary magnetization parameter $\\sigma$ of a magnetar wind. We find that the reverse shock emission strongly depends on $\\sigma$, and in particular, $\\sigma \\sim 0....

  18. EMISSIONS OF NITROUS OXIDE FROM ARABLE SOILS: EFFECTS OF TILLAGE REDUCED N INPUT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    Abdalla, M; Jones, M; Ambus, P.; M. Wattenbach; Smith, P; Williams, M.

    2012-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) flux measurements from an Irish spring barley field managed under conventional and reduced tillage and different N fertilizer rates at the Teagasc Oak Park Research Centre were made for two consecutive seasons. The aims were to investigate the efficacy of reduced tillage, reduced N fertilizer and climate change on N2O fluxes and emission factors and to study the relationship between crop yield and N-induced fluxes of N2O. The soil is a sandy loam with a pH of 7.4 and organ...

  19. Building America Case Study: Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates - Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    New inverter-driven ASHPs are gaining ground in colder climates. These systems operate at sub-zero temperatures without the use of electric resistance backup. There are still uncertainties, however, about cold-climate capacity and efficiency in cold weather and questions such as measuring: power consumption, supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures, and air flow through the indoor fan coil. CARB observed a wide range of operating efficiencies and outputs from site to site. Maximum capacities were found to be generally in line with manufacturer's claims as outdoor temperatures fell to -10 degrees F. The reasons for the wide range in heating performance likely include: low indoor air flow rates, poor placement of outdoor units, relatively high return air temperatures, thermostat set back, integration with existing heating systems, and occupants limiting indoor fan speed. Even with lower efficiencies than published in other studies, most of the heat pumps here still provide heat at lower cost than oil, propane, or certainly electric resistance systems.

  20. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Celine; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-15

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  1. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

    2016-07-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. PMID:26990671

  2. New proofs of the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau as a result of the increasing greenhouse gases emissions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DUAN Anmin; WU Guoxiong; ZHANG Qiong; LIU Yimin

    2006-01-01

    A striking climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau during the last decades has been revealed by many studies, but evidence linking it to human activity is insufficient. By using historical observations, here we show that the in situ climate warming is accompanied by a distinct decreasing trend of the diurnal range of surface air temperature. The ERA40 reanalysis further indicates that there seems to be a coherent warming trend near the tropopause but a cooling trend in the lower stratosphere. Moreover, all these features can be reproduced in two coupled climate models forced by observed CO2 concentration of the 20th century but cannot be produced by the fixed external conditions before the industrial revolution. These suggest that the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau primarily results from the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions, and impacts of the increased greenhouse gases emissions upon the climate change in the plateau are probably more serious than the rest of the world.

  3. COEXISTENCE OF GRAVITATIONALLY-BOUND AND RADIATION-DRIVEN C IV EMISSION LINE REGIONS IN ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are mutually contradictory views in the literature of the kinematics and structure of high-ionization line (e.g., C IV) emitting regions in active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Two kinds of broad emission line region (BELR) models have been proposed, outflow and gravitationally-bound BELR, which are supported, respectively, by blueshift of the C IV line and reverberation mapping observations. To reconcile these two apparently different models, we present a detailed comparison study between the C IV and Mg II lines using a sample of AGNs selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that the kinematics of the C IV region is different from that of Mg II, which is thought to be controlled by gravity. A strong correlation is found between the blueshift and asymmetry of the C IV profile and the Eddington ratio. This provides strong observational support for the postulation that the outflow is driven by radiation pressure. In particular, we find robust evidence that the C IV line region is largely dominated by outflow at high Eddington ratios, while it is primarily gravitationally-bounded at low Eddington ratios. Our results indicate that these two emitting regions coexist in most AGNs. The emission strength from these two gases varies smoothly with Eddington ratio in opposite ways. This explanation naturally reconciles the apparently contradictory views proposed in previous studies. Finally, candidate models are discussed which can account for both the enhancement of outflow emission and suppression of normal BEL in AGNs with high Eddington ratios.

  4. Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

  5. SOC storage in Swiss forest soils - driven by climate or historical land-use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosheva, Sia; Walthert, Lorenz; Niklaus, Pascal; Zimmermann, Stephan; Hagedorn, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Soils store the most carbon of all terrestrial ecosystems, with forest soils being particularly carbon-rich (Schmidt et al. 2011; Hagedorn et al. 2010; Jobaggy & Jackson 2000). The C balance of soils might be altered by land-use changes such as in Switzerland, where the forest cover has increased by approximately 22% in the last century (Ginzler et al. 2011). The objectives of this study were 1) to determine whether historical forest cover change has an impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in Swiss forests, and 2) to estimate the influence of climate on C-stocks in the organic layer and the mineral soil. In our study, we reconstructed forest cover changes for the last 150 years for the coordinates of 1000 soil profiles from the soil database of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL). We evaluated historical and modern topographic maps using ArcGIS, classifying current forest sites into permanently (≥150y) forested and newly forested sites (ages of the sites and of potentially additional drivers such as topography, climate, and soil properties on SOC stocks. Contrary to our expectations, our results indicate slightly higher SOC stocks in younger forest sites compared to permanently forested ones. This result could be observed in both organic layer (28,65 vs. 22,23 t C ha-1) and mineral soil (131,38 vs. 113,68 t C ha-1). We attribute the slightly smaller SOC stocks in the younger forests to their inherently higher SOC-stocks, as associated with favorable land previously used for grassland. Moreover, we observed higher SOC stocks under coniferous than under deciduous forest - however, this was only evident in the organic layer, but not in the mineral soil. Soil carbon increased significantly with decreasing mean annual temperature (MAT) and increasing precipitation (MAP), in particular in the organic layer. In addition to climate, we tested a number of other controlling factors such as altitude, pH, soil texture. However

  6. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

  7. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-01-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

  8. Reverse shock emission driven by post-merger millisecond magnetar winds: Effects of the magnetization parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L. D.; Wang, L. J.; Dai, Z. G.

    2016-08-01

    The study of short-duration gamma-ray bursts provides growing evidence that a good fraction of double neutron star mergers lead to the formation of stable millisecond magnetars. The launch of Poynting flux by the millisecond magnetars could leave distinct electromagnetic signatures that reveal the energy dissipation processes in the magnetar wind. In previous studies, we assume that the magnetar wind becomes completely lepton-dominated so that electrons/positrons in the magnetar wind are accelerated by a diffusive shock. However, theoretical modeling of pulsar wind nebulae shows that in many cases the magnetic field energy in the pulsar wind may be strong enough to suppress diffusive shock acceleration. In this paper, we investigate the reverse shock emission and the forward shock emission with an arbitrary magnetization parameter σ of a magnetar wind. We find that the reverse shock emission strongly depends on σ, and in particular that σ ~ 0.3 leads to the strongest reverse shock emission. Future observations would be helpful to diagnose the composition of the magnetar wind.

  9. EU policies on car emissions and fuel quality. Reducing the climate impact from road transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, Anne Raaum; Gulbrandsen, Lars H.

    2012-07-01

    Transport is the second biggest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU, and contributes about one-quarter of the EU's total emissions of CO{sub 2}. Significant reductions in GHG emissions from transport are required if the EU is to achieve its long-term climate goals. This report examines the making and implementation of two of the regulations the EU has put in place to lower emissions from the transport sector: the EU's revised Fuel Quality Directive (Directive 2009/30/EC) and the cars/CO{sub 2} regulation (Regulation (EC) 443/2009). It was found that the relevance of various theories of policymaking in the EU varies with different policy phases. A policy-network understanding of EU policymaking is strengthened when assessing the policy-initiation phase. The Commission played a key role in this phase and drafted legislation in close collaboration with the car and oil refining industries. An intergovernmentalist understanding of EU policy-making is strengthened when assessing the decision-making phase. In this phase, member states defending the interests of their domestic industries had strong influence, but the European Parliament played an important role in this phase too, employing its power in the co-decision procedure. Finally, the implementation process is best understood as a multi-level governance process in which several actors and institutions - notably the Commission, member states, industries, and NGOs - influenced the process. (Author)

  10. Estimating the climate significance of halogen-driven ozone loss in the tropical marine troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Saiz-Lopez

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We have integrated observations of tropospheric ozone, very short-lived (VSL halocarbons and reactive iodine and bromine species from a wide variety of tropical data sources with the global CAM-Chem chemistry-climate model and offline radiative transfer calculations to compute the contribution of halogen chemistry to ozone loss and associated radiative impact in the tropical marine troposphere. The inclusion of tropospheric halogen chemistry in CAM-Chem leads to an annually averaged depletion of around 10% (~2.5 Dobson units of the tropical tropospheric ozone column, with largest effects in the middle to upper troposphere. This depletion contributes approximately −0.10 W m−2 to the radiative flux at the tropical tropopause. This negative flux is of similar magnitude to the ~0.33 W m−2 contribution of tropospheric ozone to present-day radiative balance as recently estimated from satellite observations. We find that the implementation of oceanic halogen sources and chemistry in climate models is an important component of the natural background ozone budget and we suggest that it needs to be considered when estimating both preindustrial ozone baseline levels and long term changes in tropospheric ozone.

  11. Climate-driven uncertainties in modeling terrestrial gross primary production: a site level to global-scale analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barman, Rahul; Jain, Atul K; Liang, Miaoling

    2014-05-01

    We used a land surface model to quantify the causes and extents of biases in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) due to the use of meteorological reanalysis datasets. We first calibrated the model using meteorology and eddy covariance data from 25 flux tower sites ranging from the tropics to the northern high latitudes and subsequently repeated the site simulations using two reanalysis datasets: NCEP/NCAR and CRUNCEP. The results show that at most sites, the reanalysis-driven GPP bias was significantly positive with respect to the observed meteorology-driven simulations. Notably, the absolute GPP bias was highest at the tropical evergreen tree sites, averaging up to ca. 0.45 kg C m(-2)  yr(-1) across sites (ca. 15% of site level GPP). At the northern mid-/high-latitude broadleaf deciduous and the needleleaf evergreen tree sites, the corresponding annual GPP biases were up to 20%. For the nontree sites, average annual biases of up to ca. 20-30% were simulated within savanna, grassland, and shrubland vegetation types. At the tree sites, the biases in short-wave radiation and humidity strongly influenced the GPP biases, while the nontree sites were more affected by biases in factors controlling water stress (precipitation, humidity, and air temperature). In this study, we also discuss the influence of seasonal patterns of meteorological biases on GPP. Finally, using model simulations for the global land surface, we discuss the potential impacts of site-level reanalysis-driven biases on the global estimates of GPP. In a broader context, our results can have important consequences on other terrestrial ecosystem fluxes (e.g., net primary production, net ecosystem production, energy/water fluxes) and reservoirs (e.g., soil carbon stocks). In a complementary study (Barman et al., ), we extend the present analysis for latent and sensible heat fluxes, thus consistently integrating the analysis of climate-driven uncertainties in carbon, energy, and water fluxes

  12. Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, Matthew; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-08-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  13. Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation composition and structure limit future potential carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

    2016-04-01

    the largest increases in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta; 332% increase) and spruce/fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa; 243% increase) stands. In model runs with the historic fire regime, average stand age and live biomass remained consistent with pre-1988 values during the 200-year simulation period; biomass increased significantly only in recently-logged areas. In contrast, a marked shift to younger stands with lower biomass occurred in the future fire scenario. Average stand age declined from 112 years to 31 years in lodgepole pine stands, and from 191 years to 65 years in spruce/fir stands, with consequent reductions in living biomass. A smaller shift in stand age was simulated for douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands (i.e. 121 to 92 years). These fire-driven changes in stand age and biomass coincided with important shifts in species abundances. Specifically, lodgepole pine stands replaced large areas previously dominated by spruce and fir. Our results suggest that the potential for increasing the amount of fossil fuel emissions offset by carbon sequestration on public lands in the American West is limited by ongoing changes in disturbance regimes. Instead, land managers may need to consider strategies to adapt to climate change impacts.

  14. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrum, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Conrad; VanSusteren, Lise; VonShuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  15. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  16. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  17. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  18. Accelerated single photon emission from dye molecule-driven nanoantennas assembled on DNA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Busson, Mickaël P; Rolly, Brice; Stout, Brian; Bonod, Nicolas; Bidault, Sébastien

    2012-07-17

    A photon interacts efficiently with an atom when its frequency corresponds exactly to the energy between two eigenstates. But at the nanoscale, homogeneous and inhomogeneous broadenings strongly hinder the ability of solid-state systems to absorb, scatter or emit light. By compensating the impedance mismatch between visible wavelengths and nanometre-sized objects, optical antennas can enhance light-matter interactions over a broad frequency range. Here we use a DNA template to introduce a single dye molecule in gold particle dimers that act as antennas for light with spontaneous emission rates enhanced by up to two orders of magnitude and single photon emission statistics. Quantitative agreement between measured rate enhancements and theoretical calculations indicate a nanometre control over the emitter-particle position while 10 billion copies of the target geometry are synthesized in parallel. Optical antennas can thus tune efficiently the photo-physical properties of nano-objects by precisely engineering their electromagnetic environment.

  19. Chemodiversity of dissolved organic matter in lakes driven by climate and hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellerman, Anne M; Dittmar, Thorsten; Kothawala, Dolly N; Tranvik, Lars J

    2014-01-01

    Despite the small continental coverage of lakes, they are hotspots of carbon cycling, largely due to the processing of terrestrially derived dissolved organic matter (DOM). As DOM is an amalgam of heterogeneous compounds comprising gradients of microbial and physicochemical reactivity, the factors influencing DOM processing at the molecular level and the resulting patterns in DOM composition are not well understood. Here we show, using ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry to unambiguously identify 4,032 molecular formulae in 120 lakes across Sweden, that the molecular composition of DOM is shaped by precipitation, water residence time and temperature. Terrestrially derived DOM is selectively lost as residence time increases, with warmer temperatures enhancing the production of nitrogen-containing compounds. Using biodiversity concepts, we show that the molecular diversity of DOM, or chemodiversity, increases with DOM and nutrient concentrations. The observed molecular-level patterns indicate that terrestrially derived DOM will become more prevalent in lakes as climate gets wetter.

  20. CO2 emissions mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Mejean, Aurelie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine V.; Wada, Kenichi; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher and decrease with mitigation. A first deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes global emission targets until 2030, in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges and regionally-specific low-carbon technology targets. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger - twice and more - than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because leakage and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

  1. Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Gingold

    Full Text Available Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD] and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions. We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found

  2. Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, B. E.

    2014-12-01

    There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning

  3. Fast particle-driven ion cyclotron emission (ICE) in tokamak plasmas and the case for an ICE diagnostic in ITER

    CERN Document Server

    McClements, K G; Dendy, R O; Carbajal, L; Chapman, S C; Cook, J W S; Harvey, R W; Heidbrink, W W; Pinches, S D

    2014-01-01

    Fast particle-driven waves in the ion cyclotron frequency range (ion cyclotron emission or ICE) have provided a valuable diagnostic of confined and escaping fast ions in many tokamaks. This is a passive, non-invasive diagnostic that would be compatible with the high radiation environment of deuterium-tritium plasmas in ITER, and could provide important information on fusion {\\alpha}-particles and beam ions in that device. In JET, ICE from confined fusion products scaled linearly with fusion reaction rate over six orders of magnitude and provided evidence that {\\alpha}-particle confinement was close to classical. In TFTR, ICE was observed from super-Alfv\\'enic {\\alpha}-particles in the plasma edge. The intensity of beam-driven ICE in DIII-D is more strongly correlated with drops in neutron rate during fishbone excitation than signals from more direct beam ion loss diagnostics. In ASDEX Upgrade ICE is produced by both super-Alfv\\'enic DD fusion products and sub-Alfv\\'enic deuterium beam ions.

  4. Investigation of aviation emission impacts on global tropospheric chemistry and climate using a size-resolved aerosol-chemistry model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kapadia, Zarashpe; Spracklen, Dominick; Arnold, Stephen; Borman, Duncan; Mann, Graham; Pringle, Kirsty; Monks, Sarah; Reddington, Carly; Rap, Alexandru; Scott, Catherine

    2014-05-01

    Aviation is responsible for 3% of global anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but 2-14% of anthropogenic induced climate warming due to contributions from short lived climate forcers. The global civil aviation fleet is projected to double by 2026 in relation to a 2006 baseline and so will play a substantial role in future climate change. Uncertainty in the net impact of aviation on climate is largely due to uncertainty in the impacts of aviation emissions on ozone and aerosol. To study the impact of aviation emissions we use the GLOMAP-mode global aerosol microphysics model coupled to the 3-D chemical transport model TOMCAT. GLOMAP-mode has been extended to include treatment of nitrate aerosol. We include a full suite of non-CO2 aviation emissions (including NOX, SO2, HCs, BC and OC) in the model. We combined the simulated changes in ozone and aerosol with a 3D radiative transfer model to quantify the radiative effect due to aviation non-CO2 emissions. We find that aviation emissions increase O3 concentrations by up to 5.3% in the upper troposphere (UT), broadly matching previous studies. Black carbon (BC) and organic carbon (OC) concentrations increase by 26.5% and 14.6% respectively in the UT, whereas nitrate aerosol is reduced in some regions due to co-emission of NOX and SO2 In the UT, aviation emissions increase both total aerosol number as well as the concentration of particles greater than 70 nm diameter (N70). Entrainment of these particles into the free troposphere results in aviation emissions also increasing N70 in the boundary layer, causing a cooling through the first aerosol indirect effect. We explore differences in these responses compared with those simulated when using the recommended aviation emissions from CMIP5 (5th Climate Model Intercomparison Project), which only include NOX and BC emissions. Our results suggest that aviation emissions of SO2 and HCs neglected by CMIP5 produce important effects on ozone, aerosol number, and N70. We suggest CMIP5

  5. High field terahertz emission from relativistic laser-driven plasma wakefields

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Zi-Yu

    2015-01-01

    We propose a method to generate high field terahertz (THz) radiation with peak strength of GV/cm level in the THz frequency gap range 1-10 THz using a relativistic laser interaction with a gaseous plasma target. Due to the effect of local pump depletion, an initially Gaussian laser pulse undergoes leading edge erosion and eventually evolves to a state with leading edge being step function. Interacting with such a pulse, electrons gain transverse residual momentum and excite net transverse currents modulated by the relativistic plasma frequency. These currents give rise to the low frequency THz emission. We demonstrate this process with one and two dimensional particle-in-cell simulations.

  6. Climate-driven vertical acceleration of Icelandic crust measured by continuous GPS geodesy

    KAUST Repository

    Compton, Kathleen

    2015-02-06

    © 2015 The Authors. Earth\\'s present-day response to enhanced glacial melting resulting from climate change can be measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. We present data from 62 continuously operating GPS instruments in Iceland. Statistically significant upward velocity and accelerations are recorded at 27 GPS stations, predominantly located in the Central Highlands region of Iceland, where present-day thinning of the Iceland ice caps results in velocities of more than 30mm/yr and uplift accelerations of 1-2mm/yr2. We use our acceleration estimates to back calculate to a time of zero velocity, which coincides with the initiation of ice loss in Iceland from ice mass balance calculations and Arctic warming trends. We show, through a simple inversion, a direct relationship between ice mass balance measurements and vertical position and show that accelerated unloading is required to reproduce uplift observations for a simple elastic layer over viscoelastic half-space model.

  7. Persistence of Late Carboniferous tropical vegetation during glacially driven climatic and sea-level fluctuations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Di Michele, W.A.; Pfefferkorn, H.; Phillips, T.L. [Smithsonian Institution, Washington, DC (United States). Dept. of Paleobiology

    1996-10-01

    The Late Carboniferous glaciation reached its peak during the latter part of the Westphalian. In the tropical Illinois basin this was the time of deposition of the Carbondale and lower Modesto Formations, characterized by the cyclic repetition of major coal deposits, black shales, limestone, gray shales and sandstones. These lithological changes evidence repeated major fluctuations in climate and sealevel. Floras from coals, known from coal balls and palynology, characteristically were composed of three major plant communities: the wettest sites were dominated by monocarpic lycopsids, intermediate sites were dominated by polycarpic lycopsids, and areas subject to fires and intermittent flooding were dominated by medullosans and the small lycopsid Paralycopodites. Clastic-substrate environments were dominated by ferns and pteridosperms and conform to a single biozone, indicating their compositional unit and distinctness from earlier and later assemblages. The composition of lowland floras is poorly known from times between the deposition of coals and associated terrestrial rocks, intervals during which most of the lowlands were flooded and marine rocks were being deposited. Consequently, the temporally intermittent recurrence of lowland floras despite repeated, widespread environmental disruption may be explained either by vegetational persistence and migration of floras, or repeated disruption and reassembly. Several lines of evidence suggest persistence as a likely explanation.

  8. Collaborative Project: The problem of bias in defining uncertainty in computationally enabled strategies for data-driven climate model development. Final Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huerta, Gabriel [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-05-10

    The objective of the project is to develop strategies for better representing scientific sensibilities within statistical measures of model skill that then can be used within a Bayesian statistical framework for data-driven climate model development and improved measures of model scientific uncertainty. One of the thorny issues in model evaluation is quantifying the effect of biases on climate projections. While any bias is not desirable, only those biases that affect feedbacks affect scatter in climate projections. The effort at the University of Texas is to analyze previously calculated ensembles of CAM3.1 with perturbed parameters to discover how biases affect projections of global warming. The hypothesis is that compensating errors in the control model can be identified by their effect on a combination of processes and that developing metrics that are sensitive to dependencies among state variables would provide a way to select version of climate models that may reduce scatter in climate projections. Gabriel Huerta at the University of New Mexico is responsible for developing statistical methods for evaluating these field dependencies. The UT effort will incorporate these developments into MECS, which is a set of python scripts being developed at the University of Texas for managing the workflow associated with data-driven climate model development over HPC resources. This report reflects the main activities at the University of New Mexico where the PI (Huerta) and the Postdocs (Nosedal, Hattab and Karki) worked on the project.

  9. Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security in 2050 under a Range of Plausible Socioeconomic and Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiebe, K.; Lotze-Campen, H.; Bodirsky, B.; Kavallari, A.; Mason-d'Croz, D.; van der Mensbrugghe, D.; Robinson, S.; Sands, R.; Tabeau, A.; Willenbockel, D.; Islam, S.; van Meijl, H.; Mueller, C.; Robertson, R.

    2014-12-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. New work extends that analysis to cover a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from three general circulation models are combined with one crop model and five global economic models to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on yields, area, production, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar to 2050. Results show that yield impacts vary with changes in population, income and technology as well as emissions, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables.

  10. ESTIMATE OF METHANE EMISSIONS FROM RICE FIELDS IN CHINA BY CLIMATE-BASED NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KANG Guo-ding; CAI Zu-cong; ZHANG Zi-heng; XIAO Peng-feng

    2004-01-01

    Rice fields provide food for over half of the world population but are also an important source of atmospheric CH4. Using the climate-based GIS empirical model and the meteorological data collected from 600 meteorological stations in China, with county as the basic unit, the net primary productivity (NPP) of rice fields in China in 1990, 1995, 1998, and 2000 were estimated to be in the range from 202.19×1012g C in 1990 to 163.46×1012g C in 2000. From the measured data of the factors affecting CH4 emission and NPP, the conversion ratio of the NPP into CH4 emission for the rice fields of China was determined to be 1.8%. Using this ratio and estimated NPP, the CH4 emissions from rice fields of China in 1990, 1995, 1998, and 2000 were estimated to be 7.24×1012, 6.31×1012, 6.77×1012 and 5.85×1012g CH4, respectively.

  11. Electrochemiluminescent Ion Gels for DC-Driven, Sub-2V Solid-State Emissive Devices by Incorporating Redox Coreactants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Hong Chul; Lodge, Timothy P.; Frisbie, C. Daniel

    2015-03-01

    We have demonstrated a solid-state DC-driven electrochemiluminescent (ECL) device using a solution processable, emissive ECL gel based on polystyrene-block-poly(methyl methacrylate)-block-polystyrene (SMS) and 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide ([EMI][TFSI]). Tetrabutylammonium oxalate (TBAOX) was incorporated into the ECL gel for a coreactant strategy. Oxalate can be viewed as a consumable fuel for the device providing reducing power and cutting the overall operating voltage. The device was fabricated by a simple two-step solution process. Application of 1.6 V DC bias across the device resulted in the onset of light emission. The maximum luminance was achieved at 1:5 mole ratio of ECL luminophore (Ru(bpy)3(PF6)2) and TBAOX, and the turn-on voltage was independent of the composition. The simplicity of the ECL device and its low voltage operation characteristics make it potentially attractive as a display element for printed electronics. TPL and CDF acknowledge financial support from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under FA9550-12-1-0067.

  12. Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Tyler L.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Rover, Jennifer R.; Koch, Joshua C.; Bertram, Mark R.

    2014-01-01

    Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985–1989 to 2010–2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes.

  13. Climate-driven lacustrine dynamics from the Early Pleistocene Lorenyang Lake, Turkana Basin, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joordens, Josephine; Beck, Catherine; Sier, Mark; Van der Lubbe, Jeroen; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume; Langereis, Cor; Vonhof, Hubert; Cohen, Andy; Olago, Dan; Campisano, Chris; Feibel, Craig

    2016-04-01

    Two stratigraphic records from Kaitio in West Turkana, Kenya, span 1.87 - 1.34 Ma, and document environmental character and variability through a critical interval for human evolution and cultural development. The WTK13 core collected by the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) recovered 216 m of sediment at 95% recovery. A parallel outcrop record of 180 m was investigated in exposures along the Kaitio laga close to the drill site. Six tephrostratigraphic markers, the Chari, Lokapetamoi, 22Q-3, Etirr, Ebei and KBS Tuffs are present in the outcrop and/or core. These were characterized by single-shard geochemical analysis, and provide links to the well-established tephrochronology of the Turkana Basin. Magnetic polarity stratigraphy of the two records documents the top of the Olduvai Subchron (C2N) at 1.78 Ma. The lithostratigraphic record, bolstered by magnetic susceptibility and sedimentary facies characterization, demonstrates a first-order transition from a deeper lacustrine system to a dynamic lake margin setting, followed by delta progradation. Facies analysis reveals repeated fluctuations of lake level at Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch scales. Core-outcrop correlation allows detailed comparisons between diagenetically-prone outcrop samples and more pristine samples from the deep core. The excellent preservation of the core sediments makes it possible to obtain critical climate records of organic biomarkers, pollen, phytoliths and other proxies. This detailed archive of environmental variability is closely linked to the rich paleontological and archaeological discoveries from nearby sites and around the Turkana Basin.

  14. Predicting outbreaks of a climate-driven coral disease in the Great Barrier Reef

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maynard, J. A.; Anthony, K. R. N.; Harvell, C. D.; Burgman, M. A.; Beeden, R.; Sweatman, H.; Heron, S. F.; Lamb, J. B.; Willis, B. L.

    2011-06-01

    Links between anomalously high sea temperatures and outbreaks of coral diseases known as White Syndromes (WS) represent a threat to Indo-Pacific reefs that is expected to escalate in a changing climate. Further advances in understanding disease aetiologies, determining the relative importance of potential risk factors for outbreaks and in trialing management actions are hampered by not knowing where or when outbreaks will occur. Here, we develop a tool to target research and monitoring of WS outbreaks in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The tool is based on an empirical regression model and takes the form of user-friendly interactive ~1.5-km resolution maps. The maps denote locations where long-term monitoring suggests that coral cover exceeds 26% and summer temperature stress (measured by a temperature metric termed the mean positive summer anomaly) is equal to or exceeds that experienced at sites in 2002 where the only severe WS outbreaks documented on the GBR to date were observed. No WS outbreaks were subsequently documented at 45 routinely surveyed sites from 2003 to 2008, and model hindcasts for this period indicate that outbreak likelihood was never high. In 2009, the model indicated that outbreak likelihood was high at north-central GBR sites. The results of the regression model and targeted surveys in 2009 revealed that the threshold host density for an outbreak decreases as thermal stress increases, suggesting that bleaching could be a more important precursor to WS outbreaks than previously anticipated, given that bleaching was severe at outbreak sites in 2002 but not at any of the surveyed sites in 2009. The iterative approach used here has led to an improved understanding of disease causation, will facilitate management responses and can be applied to other coral diseases and/or other regions.

  15. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    M. Posch; Aherne, J.; M. Forsius; S. Fronzek; N. Veijalainen

    2008-01-01

    International audience; The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general c...

  16. Developed and developing world contributions to climate system change based on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Yan, Qing; Chou, Jieming; Yang, Zhiyong; Tian, Di

    2016-05-01

    One of the key issues in international climate negotiations is the formulation of targets for emissions reduction for all countries based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities". This formulation depends primarily on the quantitative attribution of the responsibilities of developed and developing countries for historical climate change. Using the Commuity Earth System Model (CESM), we estimate the responsibilities of developed countries and developing countries for climatic change from 1850 to 2005 using their carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that developed countries contribute approximately 53%-61%, and developing countries approximately 39%-47%, to the increase in global air temperature, upper oceanic warming, sea-ice reduction in the NH, and permafrost degradation. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of these changes from 1850 to 2005 is primarily attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in developed countries. Although uncertainties remain in the climate model and the external forcings used, GHG emissions in developed countries are the major contributor to the observed climate system changes in the 20th century.

  17. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  18. High field terahertz emission from relativistic laser-driven plasma wakefields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Zi-Yu, E-mail: Ziyu.Chen@uni-duesseldorf.de [Institut für Theoretische Physik I, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf 40225 (Germany); LSD, Institute of Fluid Physics, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621999 (China); Pukhov, Alexander [Institut für Theoretische Physik I, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf 40225 (Germany)

    2015-10-15

    We propose a method to generate high field terahertz (THz) radiation with peak strength of GV/cm level in the THz frequency gap range of 1–10 THz using a relativistic laser interaction with a gaseous plasma target. Due to the effect of local pump depletion, an initially Gaussian laser pulse undergoes leading edge erosion and eventually evolves to a state with leading edge being step function. Interacting with such a pulse, electrons gain transverse residual momentum and excite net transverse currents modulated by the relativistic plasma frequency. These currents give rise to the low frequency THz emission. We demonstrate this process with one and two dimensional particle-in-cell simulations.

  19. Using the stable HSPA1A promoter-driven luciferase reporter HepG2 cells to assess the overall toxicity of coke oven emissions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    信丽丽

    2013-01-01

    Objective Using the stable HSPA1A(HSP70-1) promoter-driven luciferase reporter HepG2 cells(HepG2/HSPA1A cells) to assess the overall toxicity of coke oven emissions. Methods The stable HepG2/HSPA1A cells were treated with different concentrations of coke oven

  20. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  1. Wexler's Great Smoke Pall: a chemistry-climate model analysis of a singularly large emissions pulse

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, R. D.; Voulgarakis, A.

    2011-12-01

    We model the effects of the smoke plume from what was arguably the largest forest fire in recorded history. The Chinchaga fire burned continuously during the summer of 1950 in northwestern Canada during a very dry fire season. On September 22nd, the fire made a major advance, burning an area of approximately 1400 km2. Ground and aircraft observations showed that from September 22 to 28, the smoke plume from the emissions pulse travelled over northern Canada, southward over the Great Lakes region and eastern US, across the Atlantic, and to Western Europe. Over the Great Lakes region, the plume remained thick enough to create twilight conditions in the mid-afternoon, and was estimated to have caused a 4 oC cooling at the surface. While many instances of long-range transport of wildfire emissions have been detected over the past decade, we know of no other wildfire which created such an acute effect on downward shortwave radiation at such a long distance. As a result, the fire was an important analogue event used in estimating the effects of a nuclear winter. Simulations with the nudged version of the GISS chemistry-climate model accurately capture the long-range transport pattern of the smoke emissions in the free-troposphere. The timing and location of aircraft observations of the plume over the eastern US, North Atlantic and the United Kingdom were well-matched to modeled anomalies of CO and aerosol optical depth. Further work will examine the model's ability to create twilight conditions during the day, and to provide an estimate of the consequent cooling effects at the surface from this remarkable emissions pulse.

  2. An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liddicoat, S. K.; Booth, B. B. B.; Joshi, M. M.

    2016-06-01

    We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. The paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions rising to more than two trillion tonnes of carbon (TtC). For each pair, the contrasting mitigation approaches—capping emissions early versus reducing them to zero a few decades later—cause their cumulative emissions trajectories to diverge initially, then converge, cross, and diverge again. We find that global mean temperature is linear with cumulative emissions across all experiments, although differences of up to 1.5 K exist regionally when the trajectories of total carbon emitted during the course of the two scenarios coincide, for both pairs of experiments. Interestingly, although the oceanic precipitation response scales with cumulative emissions, the global precipitation response does not, due to a decrease in precipitation over land above emissions of around one TtC. Most carbon fluxes are less well constrained by cumulative emissions as they reach two trillion tonnes. The opposing mitigation approaches have different consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which affects the linearity with which the carbon cycle responds to cumulative emissions. The average Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) is 1.95 K TtC‑1, at the upper end of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s range of 0.8–2.5 K TtC‑1.

  3. On Cosmic-Ray-Driven Electron Reaction Mechanism for Ozone Hole and Chlorofluorocarbon Mechanism for Global Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Qing-Bin

    2012-01-01

    Numerous laboratory measurements have provided a sound physical basis for the cosmic-ray driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism of halogen-containing molecules for the ozone hole. And observed spatial and time correlations between polar ozone loss or stratospheric cooling and cosmic rays have shown strong evidence of the CRE mechanism [Q.-B. Lu, Phys. Rep. 487, 141-167(2010)]. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were also long-known greenhouse gases but were thought to play only a minor role in climate change. However, recent observations have shown evidence of the saturation in greenhouse effect of non-CFC gases. A new evaluation has shown that halocarbons alone (mainly CFCs) could account for the rise of 0.5~0.6 deg C in global surface temperature since 1950, leading to the striking conclusion that not CO2 but CFCs were the major culprit for global warming in the late half of the 20th century [Q.-B. Lu, J. Cosmology 8, 1846-1862(2010)]. Surprizingly, a recent paper [J.-W. Grooss and R. Muller, Atmos. Envir...

  4. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Brazilian Semiarid Region: Environmental, Climate and Social Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Neto, E. R.; Ometto, J. P.; Aguiar, A. P. D.; Mata, M. V.

    2014-12-01

    Removing a forest to open new agricultural lands, which has been very intensive in countries like Brazil during the last decades, contributes to about 12% of the global anthropogenic emissions. Forest cover removal releases carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GEE) like methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as a result of burning trees, followed by gradual decomposition of the forest biomass left on the ground while pasture or crop plantations are being established. In Brazil, the 2nd Brazilian National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) presents the mean annual net CO2 emissions caused by changes in land use (LUC) in each Brazilian biome and the first place in the ranking is occupied by the Amazon Rainforest Biome (860,874 Gg), followed by Savannah (302,715 Gg), Atlantic Forest (79,109 Gg), Caatinga (37,628 Gg), Pantanal (16,172 Gg) and Pampa (-102 Gg) (MCT 2010). Despite these results, the estimates of CO2 emissions caused by LUC in the Brazilian semiarid region (Caatinga) are very limited and scarce, and associated to uncertainties directly related to the estimated biomass in different types of vegetation which are spatially distributed within the biome, as well as the correct representation of the dynamics of the deforestation process itself, and the more accurate mapping use and land cover. Based on such facts, this project is estimating the emissions of the main greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) caused by land use changes in an area of Caatinga biome in Pernambuco State through the model INPE-EM. So far, it is known that from decades of 1940 up to 1995, Caatinga biome has contributed with about 3.2 % to total land use change emissions in the country, and recently (1990-2005), the contributions of Caatinga are even higher (over 30%), according to the 2nd Brazilian National Communication (2010). By means means of the model INPE-EM (data still being acquired), we are trying to diminish the

  5. Emission of methyl chloride from a fern growing in subtropical, temperate, and cool-temperate climate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokouchi, Yoko; Takenaka, Akio; Miyazaki, Yuzo; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Hiura, Tsutom

    2015-06-01

    Tropical and subtropical forests are believed to be the largest source of methyl chloride (CH3Cl), which is a natural stratospheric ozone destroyer. However, very little is known about what controls the rate of emission from these forests or why biogenic CH3Cl emission is concentrated in the tropics and subtropics. In this study, we investigated the seasonal and spatial variations of the rate of CH3Cl emission from the fern Osmunda japonica, which has a broad distribution covering the subtropical, temperate, and subboreal climate zones. The average rates of CH3Cl emission from the fern were similar (~1-4 µg g(dw)-1 h-1) among three areas, and there was no significant seasonal change in the temperate zone, although the rate was highly variable among individual plants. These findings suggest that meteorological climate such as temperature and solar radiation is not a major environmental factor controlling biogenic CH3Cl emission of individual plants, but species with high CH3Cl emission activity are more abundant in tropical and subtropical zones. We also found that developmental stage might be an important factor controlling biogenic CH3Cl emission rates. These results have implications for predicting future global CH3Cl emission budgets and for understanding of the plant-atmosphere interaction.

  6. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  7. Superradiance driven by coherent spontaneous emission in a Cherenkov free-electron maser amplifier

    CERN Document Server

    Jaroszynski, D A; McNeil, B W J; Robb, G R M; Aitken, P; Phelps, A D R; Cross, A W; Ronald, K; Shpak, V G; Yalandin, M I; Ginzburg, N S

    2000-01-01

    Superradiance (SR) initiated by coherent spontaneous emission (CSE) has been studied in a 35 GHz high gain free-electron Cherenkov maser. We present experimental results that show the development of ultra-short pulses of radiation in the non-linear superradiant regime which are characterised by a quadratic dependence of the intensity on the current. The self-similar pulses that develop have a duration that scales inversely with the fourth root of the intensity leading to three cycle long pulses at the highest intensity (few MW). The non-linear SR regime is preceded by a stage of linear exponential growth of the microwave pulses with a gain length of 1 cm. The superradiant pulse is shown to evolve from a CSE seed by extrapolating the growth curve. Further confirmation of CSE has been obtained by varying the current pulse shape. By varying the slope of the leading edge, and thus the Fourier components of the longitudinal spectral density, we are able to vary the strength of the CSE source. We compare the experi...

  8. Impact of climate change on GHG emissions of (pre-) alpine grassland ecosystems under intensive and extensive management - a climate sequence lysimeter study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiese, Ralf; Lu, Haiyan; Fu, Jin; Diaz-Pines, Eugenio; Gasche, Rainer; Dannenmann, Michael; Butterbach-Bahl, Klaus

    2015-04-01

    Due to cool and moist climatic conditions alpine grassland soils of moderate elevation are rich in soil organic carbon and associated nitrogen. In the framework of an in-situ climate change experiment we test the hypothesis that soil organic carbon and nitrogen are either volatilized (GHG emissions) or leached with seepage water due to increase in temperature. Field investigations are carried out in the (Pre-) Alpine TERENO Observatory covering several research sites (including ICOS sites) in South-Bavaria, Germany. IMK-IFU has installed 36 weighable lysimeters with undisturbed intact grassland soil cores (diameter 1m, depth 1.4m) and is operating them at three sites differing in altitude and thus climatic conditions (850m, 750m, 600m) since 2011. Lysimeters were partly translocated from higher elevation to sites at lower elevation and other soil cores still staying at the sites as controls. In addition to the space for time in-situ climate change approach the total of 36 lysimeters are split into treatments of intensive and extensive grassland management. GHG exchange was measured by manual (850m site) but also with two novel automatic robot chamber systems (750m, 600m) connected to QCLs for simultaneous detection of CO2, N2O, and CH4 concentration changes in chamber headspace. GHG flux monitoring was supplemented by NEE measurements with transparent chambers since 2014. Climate change, generally stimulated plant growth (according to biomass sampling after cutting events) and soil C and N turnover leading to increased soil CO2 emissions and an increased uptake of atmospheric CH4. N2O emission were generally low and slightly increased in spring, summer and autumn but significantly decreased during the winter period under global change conditions, the latter due to lower intensity and frequency of frost-thaw events. The main gaseous nitrogen component emitted from the grassland ecosystems was N2 which also showed a much stronger increase with climate change than N2O

  9. Climate Change and Agriculture: Can market governance mechanisms reduce emissions from the food system fairly and effectively?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnett, Tara

    2012-05-15

    Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked: the climate affects agricultural production and is itself affected by agricultural emissions. Agriculture is responsible for 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. How agriculture is practised therefore has significant potential for mitigating climate change, for providing food security and for improving the livelihoods of millions of food producers worldwide. There is growing interest in the use of market governance mechanisms for tackling climate change by giving the financial incentives to make the kinds of changes that are required. But how widely are these mechanisms being used in agriculture, and are they effective in reducing emissions? What impact do they have on adaptation and other aspects of sustainable development? Are they able to balance the competing demands of producers and consumers, the environment and food security? The key messages emerging from this study are that economic measures have a vital part to play within this regulatory context, but they need to be designed with care. To be effective, emissions from food production and consumption must be addressed together. If not, emissions reduced in one region will simply be displaced elsewhere. A balance needs to be struck by applying a mix of approaches – regulatory, economic, voluntary, and information: no single measure will be effective in achieving emissions reductions on its own. 'Soft' measures, such as voluntary agreements and information have a part to play in providing an enabling context for action, but they must be backed up by 'harder' regulatory or economic measures. Regulation, in the form of a cap on emissions, is a prerequisite for other market governance measures to function well. To be effective, MGMs need to consider the social, cultural and economic context within which they operate.

  10. Investigations of BVOC-SOA-cloud-climate feedbacks via interactive biogenic emissions using NorESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alterskjær, Kari; Egill Kristjansson, Jon; Grini, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Kirkevåg, Alf; Olivié, Dirk; Schulz, Michael; Seland, Øyvind

    2016-04-01

    Climate feedbacks represent a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. One such feedback involves a change in emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) under global warming and a subsequent change in cloud radiative effects. Parts of the atmospheric BVOCs will oxidize in the atmosphere, which may reduce their volatility enough to form secondary organic aerosols (SOA). A changed SOA load will affect cloud radiative properties through aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) and therefore act to reduce or enhance the temperature change resulting from greenhouse gases alone. In order to study this effect, a development version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) has been extended to include explicit atmospheric particle nucleation and a treatment of SOA based on work by Risto Makkonen and collaborators. Biogenic sources of monoterpene and isoprene are interactively calculated by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), version 2.1, incorporated into the Community Land Model, version 4.5. Monoterpene and isoprene are oxidized by O3, OH and NO3 to form SOA with a yield of 15 % and 5 % respectively. It is assumed that 50 % of the product from monoterpene ozonolysis is of low enough volatility to nucleate new particles. The remaining oxidized BVOCs condensate onto preexisting particles. The model improvements include three new tracers to account for both SOA and the BVOCs. This allows for transport of both SOA and precursor gases, making it possible for SOA to form above the surface layer of the model. The new SOA treatment also changes the size distribution of most model aerosols due to condensation. Preliminary results from 6-year simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures show that the present day emissions of both isoprene (435.9 Tg/yr) and monoterpenes (121.4 Tg/yr) are within the range found in other studies. The resulting SOA production is on the order of 77 Tg/yr, also within the range found by

  11. Arctic char - friend or foe?: Climate driven seasonal variation in competitive impact of Arcticchar (Salvelinus alpinus L) on brown trout (Salmo truttaence L)

    OpenAIRE

    Ulvan, Eva Marita

    2010-01-01

    Here I test for climate driven seasonal effects on competition in lakes using brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus L.) as model organisms. Winter and summer brown trout consumption rates were estimated by 1374 Cs tracer methodology using brown trout sampled in  allopatric (brown trout) and 10 sympatric (brown trout/Arctic char) lakes, located along an altitudinal gradient in central Scandinavia. Lake catchment area  vegetation properties ranged from southern borea...

  12. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios de

  13. Laser Absorption spectrometer instrument for tomographic 2D-measurement of climate gas emission from soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidel, Anne; Wagner, Steven; Dreizler, Andreas; Ebert, Volker

    2014-05-01

    One of the most intricate effects in climate modelling is the role of permafrost thawing during the global warming process. Soil that has formerly never totally lost its ice cover now emits climate gases due to melting processes[1]. For a better prediction of climate development and possible feedback mechanisms, insights into physical procedures (like e.g. gas emission from underground reservoirs) are required[2]. Therefore, a long-term quantification of greenhouse gas concentrations (and further on fluxes) is necessary and the related structures that are responsible for emission need to be identified. In particular the spatial heterogeneity of soils caused by soil internal structures (e.g. soil composition changes or surface cracks) or by surface modifications (e.g. by plant growth) generate considerable complexities and difficulties for local measurements, for example with soil chambers. For such situations, which often cannot be avoided, a spatially resolved 2D-measurement to identify and quantify the gas emission from the structured soil would be needed, to better understand the influence of the soil sub-structures on the emission behavior. Thus we designed a spatially scanning laser absorption spectrometer setup to determine a 2D-gas concentration map in the soil-air boundary layer. The setup is designed to cover the surfaces in the range of square meters in a horizontal plane above the soil to be investigated. Existing field instruments for gas concentration or flux measurements are based on point-wise measurements, so structure identification is very tedious or even impossible. For this reason, we have developed a tomographic in-situ instrument based on TDLAS ('tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy') that delivers absolute gas concentration distributions of areas with 0.8m × 0.8m size, without any need for reference measurements with a calibration gas. It is a simple and robust device based on a combination of scanning mirrors and reflecting foils, so

  14. Sap-feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate-driven patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Mikhail V; Stekolshchikov, Andrey V; Söderman, Guy; Labina, Eugenia S; Zverev, Vitali; Zvereva, Elena L

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap-feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant-herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap-feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750-1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008-2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap-feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap-feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome-shaped relationships between the loads of sap-feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap-feeders will increase by 0-45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65-210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap-feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap-feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant-plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems.

  15. Sap-feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate-driven patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Mikhail V; Stekolshchikov, Andrey V; Söderman, Guy; Labina, Eugenia S; Zverev, Vitali; Zvereva, Elena L

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap-feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant-herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap-feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750-1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008-2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap-feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap-feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome-shaped relationships between the loads of sap-feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap-feeders will increase by 0-45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65-210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap-feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap-feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant-plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems. PMID

  16. Glacial climate driven sedimentation overwhelms tectonics in the battle for control of margin architecture: Southeast Alaska, St. Elias Orogeny

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulick, S. P.; Jaeger, J. M.; Willems, B.; Powell, R. D.; Lowe, L. A.

    2006-12-01

    The interplay of tectonic and climatic processes is fundamental to the development of mountain belts and the ensuing patterns of deformation and erosion. Of equal significance is the interaction of tectonic and climatic processes in the development of orogenic sedimentary basins, or in the case of a coastal mountain belt, in the growth of a continental margin. The Chugach-St. Elias Orogeny, which is driven by the collision of the Yakutat microplate with North America in southeast Alaska, has generated the highest coastal relief in the world. The combined forces of tectonic uplift and glacial erosion have resulted in the accumulation of over 5 km of sediment to form the continental shelf and the creation of the Surveyor Fan that is over 2 km thick proximally. High-resolution GI-gun seismic data allow for detailed examination of the margin architecture off the Bering Glacier within the leading edge of the Yakutat block. The deformation and growth of the margin appears to have first undergone a tectonically dominated phase followed more recently by a glacially dominated phase. During the tectonically dominated period a broad anticline-syncline system helped create accommodation space and the margin both shallowed and widened to its current 50 km width. Based on ties with industry well cuttings, the dominance switched sometime between 0.75 and 1.25 Ma to being completely controlled by glacial advance-retreat patterns. The mappable glacial sequences are undeformed by the underlying anticlines and display several notable features: 1) erosional bases that can often be mapped across the entire shelf, terminating at the shelf edge, 2) little evidence for terminal or retreat moraines on the shelf suggesting very rapid and single phase retreat of the glacier, 3) incomplete glacial sequences due to erosion by later advances, and 4) minimal creation of accommodation space. We investigate the cause of the switch to glacial dominance, the mechanisms and causes of the potentially

  17. On the universal late X-ray emission of binary-driven hypernovae and its possible collimation

    CERN Document Server

    Pisani, G B; Aimuratov, Y; Bianco, C L; Kovacevic, M; Moradi, R; Muccino, M; Penacchioni, A V; Rueda, J A; Shakeri, S; Wang, Y

    2016-01-01

    It has been previously discovered a universal power-law behaviour of the late X-ray emission (LXRE) of a "golden sample" (GS) of six long energetic GRBs, when observed in the rest-frame of the source. This remarkable feature, independent on the different isotropic energy (E_iso) of each GRB, has been used to estimate the cosmological redshift of some long GRBs. This analysis is here extended to a new class of 161 long GRBs, all with E_iso > 10^52 erg. These GRBs are indicated as binary-driven hypernovae (BdHNe) in view of their progenitors: a tight binary systems composed of a carbon-oxigen core (CO_core) and a neutron star (NS) undergoing an induced gravitational collapse (IGC) to a black hole (BH) triggered by the CO_core explosion as a supernova (SN). We confirm the universal behaviour of the LXRE for the "enlarged sample" (ES) of 161 BdHNe observed up to the end of 2015, assuming a double-cone emitting region. We obtain a distribution of half-opening angles peaking at 17.62{\\deg}, with mean value 30.05{\\d...

  18. A laboratory acoustic emission experiment and numerical simulation of rock fracture driven by a high-pressure fluid source

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinglin Lei

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve our understanding of rock fracture and fault instability driven by high-pressure fluid sources, the authors carried out rock fracture tests using granite under a confining pressure of 80 MPa with fluid injection in the laboratory. Furthermore, we tested a number of numerical models using the FLAC3D modeling software to find the best model to represent the experimental results. The high-speed multichannel acoustic emission (AE waveform recording system used in this study made it possible to examine the total fracture process through detailed monitoring of AE hypocenters and seismic velocity. The experimental results show that injecting high-pressure oil into the rock sample can induce AE activity at very low stress levels and can dramatically reduce the strength of the rock. The results of the numerical simulations show that major experimental results, including the strength, the temporal and spatial patterns of the AE events, and the role of the fluid can be represented fairly well by a model involving (1 randomly distributed defect elements to model pre-existing cracks, (2 random modification of rock properties to represent inhomogeneity introduced by different mineral grains, and (3 macroscopic inhomogeneity. Our study, which incorporates laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, indicates that such an approach is helpful in finding a better model not only for simulating experimental results but also for upscaling purposes.

  19. Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valolahti, Hanna Maritta; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Faubert, Patrick;

    2015-01-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensi-tive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, weaimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term...... and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarcticvegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor indirectly affecting the BVOC emissionpotentials and composition.......Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensi-tive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, weaimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term...... (up to 13 treatment years). We alsoaimed to assess whether the increased litterfall resulting from the vegetation changes in the warming subarctic wouldaffect the emissions. The study was conducted in a field experiment with factorial open-top chamber warming andannual litter addition treatments...

  20. 21st century United States emissions mitigation could increase water stress more than the climate change it is mitigating.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejazi, Mohamad I; Voisin, Nathalie; Liu, Lu; Bramer, Lisa M; Fortin, Daniel C; Hathaway, John E; Huang, Maoyi; Kyle, Page; Leung, L Ruby; Li, Hong-Yi; Liu, Ying; Patel, Pralit L; Pulsipher, Trenton C; Rice, Jennie S; Tesfa, Teklu K; Vernon, Chris R; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-08-25

    There is evidence that warming leads to greater evapotranspiration and surface drying, thus contributing to increasing intensity and duration of drought and implying that mitigation would reduce water stresses. However, understanding the overall impact of climate change mitigation on water resources requires accounting for the second part of the equation, i.e., the impact of mitigation-induced changes in water demands from human activities. By using integrated, high-resolution models of human and natural system processes to understand potential synergies and/or constraints within the climate-energy-water nexus, we show that in the United States, over the course of the 21st century and under one set of consistent socioeconomics, the reductions in water stress from slower rates of climate change resulting from emission mitigation are overwhelmed by the increased water stress from the emissions mitigation itself. The finding that the human dimension outpaces the benefits from mitigating climate change is contradictory to the general perception that climate change mitigation improves water conditions. This research shows the potential for unintended and negative consequences of climate change mitigation.

  1. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Zeebe, Richard E.

    2013-01-01

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually consid...

  2. Analyzing the effect of the longwave emissivity and solar reflectance of building envelopes on energy-saving in buildings in various climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Zhiyang; Zhang, Xiong [Key Laboratory of Advanced Civil Engineering Materials of Education Ministry, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai 200092 (China)

    2011-01-15

    A dynamic computer simulation is carried out in the climates of 35 cities distributed around the world. The variation of the annual air-conditioning energy loads due to changes in the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance of the building envelopes is studied to find the most appropriate exterior building finishes in various climates (including a tropical climate, a subtropical climate, a mountain plateau climate, a frigid-temperate climate and a temperate climate). Both the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance are set from 0.1 to 0.9 with an interval of 0.1 in the simulation. The annual air-conditioning energy loads trends of each city are listed in a chart. The results show that both the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance of building envelopes play significant roles in energy-saving for buildings. In tropical climates, the optical parameters of the building exterior surface affect the building energy-saving most significantly. In the mountain plateau climates and the subarctic climates, the impacts on energy-saving in buildings due to changes in the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance are still considerable, but in the temperate continental climates and the temperate maritime climates, only limited effects are seen. (author)

  3. Offshore wind energy climate projection using UPSCALE climate data under the RCP8.5 emission scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gross, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Recently it was demonstrated how climate data can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular it was shown that the quality of the global scale estimate compared well with regional high resolution studies and a link between surface temperature and moist density in the estimate was presented. In the present paper the methodology is tested further, to ensure that the results using one climate data set are reliable. This is achieved by extending the study to include four ensemble members. With the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient a climate change data set, which was also a result of the UPSCALE experiment, is analyzed. This, for the first time, provides a projection of future changes in wind power resources using this data set. This climate change data set is based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. This provides guidance for developers and policy makers to mitigate and adapt.

  4. Assessing the uncertainties of climate policies and mitigation measures. Viewpoints on biofuel production, grid electricity consumption and differentiation of emission reduction commitments

    OpenAIRE

    Soimakallio, Sampo

    2012-01-01

    Ambitious climate change mitigation requires the implementation of effective and equitable climate policy and GHG emission reduction measures. The objective of this study was to explore the significance of the uncertainties related to GHG emission reduction measures and policies by providing viewpoints on biofuels production, grid electricity consumption and differentiation of emission reduction commitments between countries and country groups. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and macro-level scen...

  5. Estimating the climate and air quality benefits of aviation fuel and emissions reductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorbian, Christopher S.; Wolfe, Philip J.; Waitz, Ian A.

    2011-05-01

    In this study we consider the implications of our current understanding of aviation climate impacts as it relates to the ratio of non-CO 2 to CO 2 effects from aviation. We take as inputs recent estimates from the literature of the magnitude of the component aviation impacts and associated uncertainties. We then employ a simplified probabilistic impulse response function model for the climate and a range of damage functions to estimate the ratio of non-CO 2 to CO 2 impacts of aviation for a range of different metrics, scientific assumptions, future background emissions scenarios, economic growth scenarios, and discount rates. We take cost-benefit analysis as our primary context and thus focus on integral metrics that can be related to damages: the global warming potential, the time-integrated change in surface temperature, and the net present value of damages. We also present results based on an endpoint metric, the global temperature change potential. These latter results would be more appropriate for use in a cost-effectiveness framework (e.g., with a well-defined policy target for the anthropogenic change in surface temperature at a specified time in the future). We find that the parameter that most influences the ratio of non-CO 2 to CO 2 impacts of aviation is the discount rate, or analogously the time window used for physical metrics; both are expressions of the relative importance of long-lived versus short-lived impacts. Second to this is the influence of the radiative forcing values that are assumed for aviation-induced cloudiness effects. Given the large uncertainties in short-lived effects from aviation, and the dominating influence of discounting or time-windowing, we find that the choice of metric is relatively less influential. We express the ratios of non-CO 2 to CO 2 impacts on a per unit fuel burn basis so that they can be multiplied by a social cost of carbon to estimate the additional benefits of fuel burn reductions from aviation beyond those

  6. Consistent climate-driven spatial patterns of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes in the northern hemisphere: a theoretical framework and synthesis of empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, G.; Niu, S.; Chen, Z.; Zhu, X.

    2013-12-01

    A predictive understanding of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes has been developed slowly, largely owing to lack of broad generalizations and a theoretical framework as well as clearly defined hypotheses. We synthesized Eddy flux data in different regions of northern hemisphere and previously published papers, then developed a framework for the climate controls on the geoecological patterns of terrestrial ecosystem C fluxes, and proposed the underlying mechanisms. Based on the case studies and synthesis, we found that the spatial patterns of ecosystem C fluxes in China, Asia, three continents of the northern hemisphere all had general patterns: predominately controlled by temperature and precipitation, supporting and further developing the traditional theory of 'climate controls on the spatial patterns of ecosystem productivity' in Miami and other models. Five hypotheses were proposed to explain the ecological mechanisms and processes that attribute to the climate-driven spatial patterns of C fluxes. (1) Two key processes determining gross primary productivity (GPP), i.e. growing season length and carbon uptake capacity, are jointly controlled by temperature and precipitation; (2) Ecosystem respiration (ER) is predominately determined also by temperature and precipitation, as well as substrate supply; (3) Components of ecosystem C fluxes are closely coupled with each other in response to climate change; (4) Vegetation types and soil nutrients in particular area are fundamentally determined by environmental factors, which may impact C fluxes within a certain range, but couldn't change the climate-driven pattern of C fluxes at large scale, (5) Land use only changes the magnitude of C fluxes, but doesn't change the spatial patterns and their climate dependence. All of these hypotheses were well validated by the evidences of data synthesis, which could provide the foundation for a theoretical framework for better understanding and predicting geoecological

  7. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  8. Global Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; Sudo, Kengo; Szopa, Sophie; Horowitz, Larry W.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Zeng, Guang; Cameron-Smith, Philip J.; Cionni, Irene; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Eyring, Veronika; Folberth, Gerd A.; Ginoux, Paul; Josse, Batrice; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; OConnor, Fiona M.; Mackenzie, Ian A.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; Shindell, Drew Todd; Spracklen, Dominick V.

    2012-01-01

    Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

  9. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon–chemistry–climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Unger

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar/Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry–climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry–climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs, prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2= 64–96% and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 Tg C yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  10. Photosynthesis-dependent Isoprene Emission from Leaf to Planet in a Global Carbon-chemistry-climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zeng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Alienov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.; McKinney, K. A.; Misztal, P.; Potosnak, M.; Rinne, J.; Pressley, S.; Schoon, N.; Serca, D.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the FarquharBallBerry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50 of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 6496) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr1 that increases by 30 in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55 for potential natural vegetation.

  11. Extent and agenda of emission reduction policies in front of climate risks: lessons learned from integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having highlighted the main difficulties met when trying to take decisions on emission reductions (i.e. disequilibrium between short term action and long term dynamics, series of uncertainties, lack of a clear information on threats), this research aims at studying the extent and the agenda of CO2 emission reduction efforts at a global scale. First, the author explores under various perspectives the relationship between the extent of climate change and the extent of its impacts and modes of analysis of climate policies. Then, he examines how different attitudes towards the climate risk are translated into recommendations for action which are obtained by always more complex models. In order to compare results, simulations are performed, based on optimal control models belonging to the RESPONSE family. Three different options or attitudes are then studied and assessed with RESPONSE: firstly, the uncertainty on impact and damage assessment is still too important to have confidence in present assessments; secondly, while being sceptical on damage assessment, more confidence is given to climate model results, and thirdly, an explicit representation of climate damages is used to introduce rationality issues in the debate on risks

  12. The role of climate and emission changes in future air quality over southern Canada and northern Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Tagaris

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Potential impacts of global climate and emissions changes on regional air quality over southern (western and eastern Canada and northern Mexico are examined by comparing future summers' (i.e., 2049–2051 average regional O3 and PM2.5 concentrations with historic concentrations (i.e., 2000–2002 summers. Air quality modeling was conducted using CMAQ and meteorology downscaled from the GISS-GCM using MM5. Emissions for North America are found using US EPA, Mexican and Canadian inventories and projected emissions following CAIR and IPCC A1B emissions scenario. Higher temperatures for all sub-regions and regional changes in mixing height, insolation and precipitation are forecast in the 2049–2051 period. Future emissions are calculated to be lower over both Canadian sub-regions, but higher over northern Mexico. Global climate change, alone, is predicted to affect PM2.5 concentrations more than O3: M8hO3 concentrations are estimated to be slightly different in all examined sub-regions while PM2.5 concentrations are estimated to be higher over both Canadian sub-regions (8% over western and 3% over eastern but 11% lower over northern Mexico. Climate change combined with the projected emissions lead to greater change in pollutant concentrations: M8hO3 concentrations are simulated to be 6% lower over western Canada and 8% lower over eastern Canada while PM2.5 concentrations are simulated to be 5% lower over western Canada and 11% lower over eastern Canada. Although future emissions over northern Mexico are projected higher, pollutant concentrations are simulated to be lower due to US emissions reductions. Global climate change combined with the projected emissions will decrease M8hO3 4% and PM2.5 17% over northern Mexico.

  13. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Predicted changes in dissolved organic carbon induced by reductions in acid deposition or increases in temperature may potentially influence the recovery of surface waters from acidification and may offset the increase in pH resulting from S deposition reductions. However, many climate-induced changes in processes are generally not incorporated in current versions of acidification models. To allow more reliable forecasts, the mechanisms by

  14. The increase in the perception of the climatic change and the energy systems without emissions of coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the last 20 years, the phenomenon of the climatic change due to the gases emission of greenhouse effect has become from a topic of scientific study to discussion problem in the political spheres of most high level to world scale. In summary, at the present time it has a generalized public perception that the gas emissions of greenhouse effect generated by anthropogenic activities, they have been increased to such size that they are causing a greenhouse effect in the terrestrial atmosphere with their consequent impact of global heating. In this work a description of the science behind the phenomenon is presented, of the evidences that the believers show, the arguments that present the sceptic persons and the actions to reduce those emissions that have proposed the pragmatic people. A brief summary of the main technologies considered for the energy sector of X XI century so that they reduce those emissions is also presented. (Author)

  15. What's so local about global climate change? Testing social theories of environmental degradation to quantify the demographic, economic, and governmental factors associated with energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in U.S. metropolitan areas and counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribbia, John Luke

    . The STIRPAT method is used to test four social theories of environmental degradation -- the treadmill of production, ecological modernization, urban ecological transitions, and human ecology theories -- by quantifying variables associated with energy use and CO2 emissions drawn from each theory. The specific findings demonstrate that various demographic, economic, and governmental factors are related strongly to metropolitan area energy consumption and county-level CO2 emissions. The human ecology, treadmill of production, and urban ecological transitions theories are important to explaining how and why climate-related impacts differ for a wide variety of local areas in the United States. Related to human ecology and treadmill of production theory, environmental degradation is highest in metropolitan areas and counties with large populations and large economies that have various mechanisms in place to facilitate economic growth. By contrast, some U.S. counties are beginning to remedy their impact on the environment by applying economic and governmental resources toward the mitigation of CO2 emissions, which provides evidence of support for urban ecological transitions theory. However, because climate change is a complex cross-scale global environmental problem and the results in this dissertation confirm that this problem is locally driven by similar population and economic factors also affecting the climate at larger spatial scales, mitigation efforts to reduce energy use and emissions at the local level will be fruitless without a well-coordinated, cross-scale (local to global) ideological shift that puts less priority on economic goals and more on environmental sustainability. These results, and the methodological and theoretical framework applied in this dissertation, thus provide a useful platform for the successful application of future research that specifically addresses mitigation strategies to reduce local-level environmental impacts. This dissertation

  16. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. MacIntosh

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOC and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP and global temperature potential (GTP there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane lifetime changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in 4 regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia. We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOC and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOC and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP as a result of the exponential decay terms, with similar values for the 20 years GTP. However, estimates of the SD calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the SD at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true SD, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. We find that the effect is generally most marked for the case of NOx emissions, where the net effect is a smaller residual of terms of opposing signs. For example, the SD for the 20 year GWP is two to three times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. Hence, while the average of multi

  17. Impact of wind-driven rain on historic brick wall buildings in a moderately cold and humid climate: Numerical analyses of mould growth risk, indoor climate and energy consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masaru, Abuku; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

    2009-01-01

    This paper gives an onset to whole building hygrothermal modelling in which the interaction between interior and exterior climates via building enclosures is simulated under a moderately cold and humid climate. The focus is particularly on the impact of wind-driven rain (WDR) oil the hygrothermal...... response, mould growth at interior wall surfaces, indoor climate and energy consumption. First the WDR load oil the facades of a 4 m x 4 m x 10 m tower is determined. Then the hygrothermal behaviour of the brick walls is analysed oil a horizontal slice through the tower. The simulations demonstrate...... that WDR loads can have a significant impact on mould growth especially at the edges of the walls. Finally, for the case analysed, the WDR load Causes a significant increase of indoor relative humidity and energy consumption for heating. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  18. Presentation of an Innovative Zero-Emission Cycle for Mitigating the Global Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Mathieu

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available In the spectrum of possible options to cope with the global climate change, a novel technology based on the zero CO2 emission MATIANT cycle (contraction of the names of the 2 designers : MATHIEU and IANTOVSKI is presented here. This latter is basically a regenerative gas cycle operating on CO2 as the working fluid and using O2 as the fuel oxidiser in the combustion chambers. The cycle uses the highest temperatures and pressures compatible with the most advanced materials in the steam and gas turbines. In addition, reheat and staged compression with intercooling are used. Therefore the optimized cycle efficiency rises up to around 45% when operating on natural gas. A big asset of the system is its ability to remove totally the CO2 produced in the combustion process in liquid or supercritical state and at high pressure, making it ready for transportation, for reuse or for final storage. It avoids the cost in performance (decrease of efficiency and power output and in money of the CO2 capture by a MEA scrubber. The assets and drawbacks of the cycle are mentioned. The technical issues for the design of a prototype plant are examined.

  19. Indoor pollution by organic emissions from textile floor coverings: Climate test chamber studies under static conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollinger, S.; Levsen, K.; Wünsch, G.

    The emission of organic compounds from textile floor coverings was studied in a climate test chamber under static conditions (zero air exchange) in order to test the parameters which influence such chamber experiments, i.e. the temperature, the humidity and the adsorption on the walls. While depending on the volatility and the polarity of the compound, the equilibrium concentrations increase in part substantially with increasing temperature, the humidity has little impact on the observed concentrations. The chamber walls represent an important sink for polar and less volatile compounds, although this sink does not influence the equilibrium concentrations. Ten textile floor coverings have been tested (7 of which had a polyamide pile and a styrene-butadiene rubber backing). Ninety-nine compounds have been identified. The equilibrium concentrations of 20 compounds have been determined. These equilibrium concentrations do not depend on the sample size, the sample loading nor on wall effects, in contrast to the dynamic method, where these parameters play an important role.

  20. Uncertainty in projected climate change caused by methodological discrepancy in estimating CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilcaille, Yann; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Mohr, Steve; Andres, Robert J.; Bopp, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    There are different methodologies to estimate CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The term "methodology" refers to the way subtypes of fossil fuels are aggregated and their implied emissions factors. This study investigates how the choice of a methodology impacts historical and future CO2 emissions, and ensuing climate change projections. First, we use fossil fuel extraction data from the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand model of Mohr et al. (2015). We compare four different methodologies to transform amounts of fossil fuel extracted into CO2 emissions based on the methodologies used by Mohr et al. (2015), CDIAC, EDGARv4.3, and IPCC 1996. We thus obtain 4 emissions pathways, for the historical period 1750-2012, that we compare to the emissions timeseries from EDGARv4.3 (1970-2012) and CDIACv2015 (1751-2011). Using the 3 scenarios by Mohr et al. (2015) for projections till 2300 under the assumption of an Early (Low emission), Best Guess or Late (High emission) extraction peaking, we obtain 12 different pathways of CO2 emissions over 1750-2300. Second, we extend these CO2-only pathways to all co-emitted and climatically active species. Co-emission ratios for CH4, CO, BC, OC, SO2, VOC, N2O, NH3, NOx are calculated on the basis of the EDGAR v4.3 dataset, and are then used to produce complementary pathways of non-CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion only. Finally, the 12 emissions scenarios are integrated using the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2, in order to quantify the impact of the selected driver onto climate change projections. We find historical cumulative fossil fuel CO2 emissions from 1750 to 2012 ranging from 365 GtC to 392 GtC depending upon the methodology used to convert fossil fuel into CO2 emissions. We notice a drastic increase of the impact of the methodology in the projections. For the High emission scenario with Late fuel extraction peaking, cumulated CO2 emissions from 1700 to 2100 range from 1505 GtC to 1685 GtC; this corresponds

  1. Marine reserves reduce risk of climate-driven phase shift by reinstating size- and habitat-specific trophic interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R

    2012-06-01

    Spatial closures in the marine environment are widely accepted as effective conservation and fisheries management tools. Given increasing human-derived stressors acting on marine ecosystems, the need for such effective action is urgently clear. Here we explore mechanisms underlying the utility of marine reserves to reinstate trophic dynamics and to increase resilience of kelp beds against climate-driven phase shift to sea urchin barrens on the rapidly warming Tasmanian east coast. Tethering and tagging experiments were used to examine size- and shelter-specific survival of the range-extending sea urchin Centrostephanus rodgersii (Diadematidae) translocated to reefs inside and outside no-take Tasmanian marine reserves. Results show that survival rates of C. rodgersii exposed on flat reef substratum by tethering were approximately seven times (small urchins 10.1 times; large urchins 6.1 times) lower on protected reef within marine reserve boundaries (high abundance of large predatory-capable lobsters) compared to fished reef (large predatory lobsters absent). When able to seek crevice shelter, tag-resighting models estimated that mortality rates of C. rodgersii were lower overall but remained 3.3 times (small urchins 2.1 times; large urchins 6.4 times) higher in the presence of large lobsters inside marine reserves, with higher survival of small urchins owing to greater access to crevices relative to large urchins. Indeed, shelter was 6.3 times and 3.1 times more important to survival of small and large urchins, respectively, on reserved relative to fished reef. Experimental results corroborate with surveys throughout the range extension region, showing greater occurrence of overgrazing on high-relief rocky habitats where shelter for C. rodgersii is readily available. This shows that ecosystem impacts mediated by range extension of such habitat-modifying organisms will be heterogeneous in space, and that marine systems with a more natural complement of large and thus

  2. Including adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change in a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm framework for urban water supply systems incorporating GHG emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, F. L.; Maier, H. R.; Dandy, G. C.

    2014-08-01

    Cities around the world are increasingly involved in climate action and mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, in the context of responding to climate pressures in the water sector, very few studies have investigated the impacts of changing water use on GHG emissions, even though water resource adaptation often requires greater energy use. Consequently, reducing GHG emissions, and thus focusing on both mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change in planning and managing urban water supply systems, is necessary. Furthermore, the minimization of GHG emissions is likely to conflict with other objectives. Thus, applying a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA), which can evolve an approximation of entire trade-off (Pareto) fronts of multiple objectives in a single run, would be beneficial. Consequently, the main aim of this paper is to incorporate GHG emissions into a MOEA framework to take into consideration both adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change for a city's water supply system. The approach is applied to a case study based on Adelaide's southern water supply system to demonstrate the framework's practical management implications. Results indicate that trade-offs exist between GHG emissions and risk-based performance, as well as GHG emissions and economic cost. Solutions containing rainwater tanks are expensive, while GHG emissions greatly increase with increased desalinated water supply. Consequently, while desalination plants may be good adaptation options to climate change due to their climate-independence, rainwater may be a better mitigation response, albeit more expensive.

  3. A Curriculum Experiment in Climate Change Education Using and Integrated Approach of Content Knowledge Instruction and Student-Driven Research to Promote Civic Engagement

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, P. E.; Heinrichs, J. F.

    2009-12-01

    One of the greatest challenges facing the world is climate change. Coupled with this challenge is an under-informed population that has not received a rigorous education about climate change other than what is available through the media. Fort Hays State University is piloting a course on climate change targeted to students early in their academic careers. The course is modeled after our past work (NSF DUE-0088818) of integrating content knowledge instruction and student-driven research where there was a positive correlation between student research engagement and student knowledge gains. The current course, based on prior findings, utilizes a mix of inquiry-based instruction, problem-based learning, and student-driven research to educate and engage the students in understanding climate change. The course was collaboratively developed by a geoscientist and science educator both of whom are active in citizen science programs. The emphasis on civic engagement by students is reflected in the course structure. The course model is unique in that 50% of the course is dedicated to developing core knowledge and technical skills (e.g. critical analysis, writing, data acquisition, data representation, and research design), and 50% to conducting a research project using available data sets from federal agencies and research groups. A key element of the course is a focus on local and regional data sets to make climate change relevant to the students. The research serves as a means of civic engagement by the students as they are tasked to understand their role in communicating their research findings to the community and coping with the local and regional changes they find through their research.

  4. Differentiating between Land Use and Climate-driven Change using Long-term Vegetation Index Trends adjusted for Precipitation on the Mongolian Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, R.; Chen, J.; Kim, Y.; Yang, Z.; Xiao, J.; Shao, C.; Batkhishig, O.

    2014-12-01

    The Mongolian plateau is undergoing consistent warming in addition to an increase in extreme climatic events. Land cover/land use change has accelerated over the past three decades, owing to post liberalization socio-economic changes in Inner Mongolia, China (IM) Mongolia (MG) which have different political systems. Extensive anthropomorphic modifications of ecosystems have the ability to alter the structure and function of ecosystems and ecological processes such as the carbon and water cycle and it is therefore important to differentiate between such changes from climate-driven changes. This study identified climate-driven and human-induced changes in vegetation cover on the Mongolian plateau across desert, grassland and forest biomes as well as administrative divisions. We applied non-parametric trend tests on time series of vegetation index datasets that include MODIS EVI, Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) EVI2, and GIMMS 3g as well as precipitation and temperature obtained from TRMM and MERRA reanalysis datasets. We then correlated the VI trends with the climate drivers to determine and isolate primary climate drivers. VI residuals obtained from the regression of composites of peak season maximum VI and JJA monthly accumulated rainfall were analyzed for detection of trends in vegetation greenness not explained by rainfall dynamics over different time periods (2000-2012, and 1981 to 2010). In addition, we obtained trends in socioeconomic variables like total livestock and population density which were closely correlated with VI residual trends adjusted for rainfall. Some administrative subdivisions in IM and MG showed a decreasing trend in residuals that could be attributed to anthropogenic activity such as grazing, or urbanization, while other subdivisions showed an increasing trend in residuals increasing trend in residuals suggest that vegetation cover has improved and perhaps be attributed to restoration and conservation efforts.

  5. Climate Benefits of U.S. EPA Programs and Policies That Reduced Methane Emissions 1993-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, April M; Sarofim, Marcus C; Crimmins, Allison R

    2016-07-01

    The United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has established voluntary programs to reduce methane (CH4) emissions, and regulations that either directly reduce CH4 or provide co-benefits of reducing CH4 emissions while controlling for other air pollutants. These programs and regulations address four sectors that are among the largest domestic CH4 emissions sources: municipal solid waste landfills, oil and natural gas, coal mining, and agricultural manure management. Over the 1993-2013 time period, 127.9 Tg of CH4 emissions reductions were attributed to these programs, equal to about 18% of the counterfactual (or potential) domestic emissions over that time, with almost 70% of the abatement due to landfill sector regulations. Reductions attributed to the voluntary programs increased nearly continuously during the study period. We quantified how these reductions influenced atmospheric CH4 concentration and global temperature, finding a decrease in concentration of 28 ppb and an avoided temperature rise of 0.006 °C by 2013. Further, we monetized the climate and ozone-health impacts of the CH4 reductions, yielding an estimated benefit of $255 billion. These results indicate that EPA programs and policies have made a strong contribution to CH4 abatement, with climate and air quality benefits. PMID:27227378

  6. Analysing the emission gap between pledged emission reductions under the Cancun Agreements and the 2C climate target

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Roelfsema, M.; Hof, A.F. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boettcher, H. [Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria); Grassi, G. [Joint Research Centre JRC, European Commission, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-04-15

    In the Cancun Agreements, Annex I Parties (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I Parties (developing countries) made voluntary pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The Cancun Agreements also state a long-term target of limiting temperature increase to a maximum of 2C above pre-industrial levels. This report is an update of the PBL report 'Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord', which similar to earlier studies showed that there is a possible gap in emissions between the emission level resulting from the pledges and the level necessary to achieve the 2C target. The updates involve new information on many topics that have become available over the last two years, including updated national business-as-usual emission projections as provided by the countries themselves, and more information on uncertainties and on factors influencing the size of the emission gap. In this context, the main objective of this report can be formulated as follows: This report analyses the effect of the pledges put forward by the Parties in the Cancun Agreements on the emission gap, taking into account all the new information available. It pays specific attention to uncertainties and risks and describes in more detail the emission implications of the pledges and actions of the 12 largest emitting countries or regions.

  7. Sensitivity of stream flow droughts, water shortage and water stress events to ENSO driven inter-annual climate variability at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

    2014-05-01

    Governments and institutions managing water resources have to adapt constantly to regional drought, water shortage and water stress conditions, being caused by climate change, socio-economic developments and/or climate variability. Taking into account the impact of climate variability is important as in some regions it may outweigh long-term climate change or socio-economic developments, especially on a time scale of a few years up to a few decades. As governments and water management institutions apply planning horizons up to a decade with respect to management of adaptation strategies, inter-annual climate variability is especially relevant. A number of studies have estimated the impacts of climate variability on stream flow droughts on a local, continental or global scale. Others have focused on the role of long term climate change and socio-economic trends on blue water availability, shortage and stress. However, a global assessment of the influence of inter-annual climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, shortage and stress together has not yet been carried out, despite its importance for adaptation planning. To address this issue, we assessed the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, and shortage and stress events at the global scale. Within this contribution we focused on El Nino Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) impact as ENSO is the most dominant source of inter-annual climate variability, impacting climate and society. We carried out this assessment through the following steps: (1) used daily discharge and run-off time-series (0.5º x 0.5º) of three WATCH forced global hydrological models (WaterGAP, PCR-GLOBWB, and STREAM); (2) in combination with time-series of population counts and monthly water demands we calculated monthly and yearly stream flow drought, water availability, water shortage and water stress per Food Producing Unit (FPU) for the period 1960-2000; and (3

  8. Climate Science Centers: An "Existence Theorem" for a Federal-University Partnership to Develop Actionable and Needs-Driven Science Agendas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, B., III

    2014-12-01

    Climate Science Centers: An "Existence Theorem" for a Federal-University Partnership to Develop Actionable and Needs-Driven Science Agendas. Berrien Moore III (University of Oklahoma) The South Central Climate Science Center (CSC) is one of eight regional centers established by the Department of the Interior (DoI) under Secretarial Order 3289 to address the impacts of climate change on America's water, land, and other natural and cultural resources. Under DoI leadership and funding, these CSCs will provide scientific information tools and techniques to study impacts of climate change synthesize and integrate climate change impact data develop tools that the DoI managers and partners can use when managing the DOI's land, water, fish and wildlife, and cultural heritage resources (emphasis added) The network of Climate Science Centers will provide decision makers with the science, tools, and information they need to address the impacts of climate variability and change on their areas of responsibility. Note from Webster, a tool is a device for doing work; it makes outcomes more realizable and more cost effective, and, in a word, better. Prior to the existence of CSCs, the university and federal scientific world certainly contained a large "set" of scientists with considerable strength in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address the complexities and interdisciplinary nature of the challenges in the areas of climate variability, change, impacts, and adaptation. However, this set of scientists were hardly an integrated community let alone a focused team, but rather a collection of distinguished researchers, educators, and practitioners that were working with disparate though at times linked objectives, and they were rarely aligning themselves formally to an overarching strategic pathway. In addition, data, models, research results, tools, and products were generally somewhat "disconnected" from the broad range of stakeholders. I should note also

  9. Experimental warming-driven soil drying reduced N2O emissions from fertilized crop rotations of winter wheat-soybean/fallow, 2009-2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liu, L; Hu, C; Yang, P;

    2016-01-01

    infrared heaters and its control (C) combined with a nitrogen (N1) fertilization treatment (315 kg N ha−1 y−1) and no nitrogen treatment (N0) was conducted over five years at an agricultural research station in the North China Plain in a winter wheat–soybean double cropping system. N2O fluxes were measured...... moisture. The effect of lower soil moisture on N2O fluxes exceeded that of higher temperature, leading to less N2O being released by the drier soils under warming. Nitrogen fertilizer increased N2O emissions without warming, but did not routinely increase N2O emissions under warming treatment. In the N0......Nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural soils play an important role in the global greenhouse gas budget. However, the response of N2O emissions from nitrogen fertilized agricultural soils to climate warming is not yet well understood. A field experiment with simulated warming (T) using...

  10. Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmid, B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Flynn, C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS), a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) field campaign, was based out of Ellington Field in Houston, Texas, during August and September 2013. The study focused on pollution emissions and the evolution of gases and aerosols in deep convective outflow, and the influences and feedbacks of aerosol particles from anthropogenic pollution and biomass burning on meteorology, clouds, and climate. The project required three aircraft to accomplish these goals. The NASA DC-8 provided observations from near the surface to 12 km, while the NASA ER-2 provided high-altitude observations reaching into the lower stratosphere as well as important remote-sensing observations connecting satellites with observations from lower-flying aircraft and surface sites. The SPEC, Inc. Learjet obtained aerosol and cloud microphysical measurement in convective clouds and convective outflow.

  11. Methyl chloride emission from a fern growing in sub-tropical, temperate and cool-temperate climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokouchi, Yoko; Takenaka, Akio; Miyazaki, Yuzo; Kawamura, Kimitaka; Hiura, Tsutomu

    2015-04-01

    Methyl chloride(CH3Cl) is the most abundant halocarbon in the troposphere, and is known as a natural stratospheric ozone depletion compound. Amongst its various sources, tropical forests are likely the largest contributor, followed by biomass burning, oceans and salt marshes. There have been unsolved questions why CH3Cl-emitting plants are dominated by tropical plants. Recently we found that a fern, Osmunda japonica, collected from temperate zone emits as high as several μg-g(dw)-1-h-1 of CH3Cl. This fern has a wide natural distribution, covering sub-tropical, temperate and cool-temperate climate, making it possible to study the CH3Cl emission rate from one species under different climate conditions. In this presentation, we report seasonal and spatial variation of the CH3Cl emission rate from O. japonica, and discuss its controlling factors.

  12. Evaluation of metrics and baselines for tracking greenhouse gas emissions trends: Recommendations for the California climate action registry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Murtishaw, Scott; Worrell, Ernst

    2003-06-01

    Executive Summary: The California Climate Action Registry, which was initially established in 2000 and began operation in Fall 2002, is a voluntary registry for recording annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of the Registry is to assist California businesses and organizations in their efforts to inventory and document emissions in order to establish a baseline and to document early actions to increase energy efficiency and decrease GHG emissions. The State of California has committed to use its ''best efforts'' to ensure that entities that establish GHG emissions baselines and register their emissions will receive ''appropriate consideration under any future international, federal, or state regulatory scheme relating to greenhouse gas emissions.'' Reporting of GHG emissions involves documentation of both ''direct'' emissions from sources that are under the entity's control and indirect emissions controlled by others. Electricity generated by an off-site power source is consider ed to be an indirect GHG emission and is required to be included in the entity's report. Registry participants include businesses, non-profit organizations, municipalities, state agencies, and other entities. Participants are required to register the GHG emissions of all operations in California, and are encouraged to report nationwide. For the first three years of participation, the Registry only requires the reporting of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, although participants are encouraged to report the remaining five Kyoto Protocol GHGs (CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6). After three years, reporting of all six Kyoto GHG emissions is required. The enabling legislation for the Registry (SB 527) requires total GHG emissions to be registered and requires reporting of ''industry-specific metrics'' once such metrics have been adopted by the Registry. The Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National

  13. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berrittella, C.; van Huissteden, J.

    2011-10-01

    Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4) concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG) wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox), vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax), plant transport rate (Vtransp), maximum rooting depth (Zroot) and root exudation rate (fex). Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3) stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming dominance of

  14. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Huissteden

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4 concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox, vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax, plant transport rate (Vtransp, maximum rooting depth (Zroot and root exudation rate (fex. Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming

  15. Estimation of light duty vehicle emissions in Islamabad and climate co-benefits of improved emission standards implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Izhar Hussain; Zeeshan, Muhammad

    2016-02-01

    Light Duty Vehicles (LDVs) hold a major share in Islamabad's vehicle fleet and their contribution towards air pollution has not been analyzed previously. Emissions for the base year (2014) and two optimistic 'what-if' scenarios were estimated by using the International Vehicle Emissions (IVE) model. Considering the recent implementation of Euro II as emission standard in Pakistan, scenario 1 assumed entire LDV fleet meeting at least Euro II standards while scenario 2 assumed all LDVs meeting Euro IV standards except motorcycles which would be meeting Euro III emission standards. Higher average age for all vehicles and lower share of Euro compliant vehicles was found in the base case. Low engine stress mode (lower speeds with frequent decelerations) was observed for all vehicles especially on arterials and residential roads. Highest overall emissions (59%) were observed on arterials, followed by residential roads (24%) and highways (17%) with higher emissions observed during morning (8-10 am) and evening (4-6 pm) rush hours. Composite emission factors were also calculated. Results reveal that 1094, 147, 11.1, 0.2 and 0.4 kt of CO2, CO, NOx, SO2 and PM10 respectively were emitted in 2014 by LDVs. Compared with the base year, scenario 1 showed a reduction of 9%, 69%, 73%, 13% and 31%, while scenario 2 exhibited a reduction of 5%, 92%, 90%, 92% and 81% for CO2, CO, NOx, SO2 and PM10 respectively. As compared to the base year, a 20 year CO2-equivalent Global Warming Potential (GWP) reduced by 55% and 64% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively, while a 100 year GWP reduced by 40% and 44% under scenario 1 and 2 respectively. Our results demonstrated significant co-benefits that could be achieved in emission reduction and air quality improvement in the city by vehicle technology implementation.

  16. Responding to climate change and the global land crisis: REDD+, market transformation and low-emissions rural development

    OpenAIRE

    Nepstad, Daniel C.; Boyd, William; Stickler, Claudia M.; Bezerra, Tathiana; Azevedo, Andrea A.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and rapidly escalating global demand for food, fuel, fibre and feed present seemingly contradictory challenges to humanity. Can greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use, more than one-fourth of the global total, decline as growth in land-based production accelerates? This review examines the status of two major international initiatives that are designed to address different aspects of this challenge. REDD+ is an emerging policy framework for providing incentives to tropica...

  17. The climate impact of ship NOx emissions: an improved estimate accounting for plume chemistry

    OpenAIRE

    C. D. Holmes; Prather, M. J.; G. C. M. Vinken

    2014-01-01

    Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from maritime shipping produce ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH), which in turn destroy methane (CH4). The balance between this warming (due to O3) and cooling (due to CH4) determines the net effect of ship NOx on climate. Previous estimates of the chemical impact and radiative forcing (RF) of ship NOx have generally assumed that plumes of ship exhaust are instantly diluted into model grid cells spanning hundreds of kilometers, even thou...

  18. A fair compromise to break the climate impasse. A major economies forum approach to emissions reductions budgeting

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Grasso, Marco [Univ. of Milan-Bicocca (Italy). International Environmental Policy; J. Roberts, Timmons [Brown Univ., Providence, RI (United States). Environmental Studies and Sociology; The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC (United States)

    2013-04-15

    Key messages of the study are: Given the stalemate in U.N. climate negotiations, the best arena to strike a workable deal is among the members the Major Economies Forum on Energy and Climate (MEF); The 13 MEF members—including the EU-27 (but not double-counting the four EU countries that are also individual members of the MEF)—account for 81.3 percent of all global emissions; This proposal devises a fair compromise to break the impasse to develop a science-based approach for fairly sharing the carbon budget in order to have a 75 percent chance of avoiding dangerous climate change; To increase the likelihood of a future climate agreement, carbon accounting must shift from production-based inventories to consumption-based ones; The shares of a carbon budget to stay below 2 deg C through 2050 are calculated by cumulative emissions since 1990, i.e. according to a short-horizon polluter pays principle, and national capability (income), and allocated to MEF members through emission rights. This proposed fair compromise addresses key concerns of major emitters; According to this accounting, no countries have negative carbon budgets, there is substantial time for greening major developing economies, and some developed countries need to institute very rapid reductions in emissions; and, To provide a 'green ladder' to developing countries and to ensure a fair global deal, it will be crucial to agree how to extend sufficient and predictable financial support and the rapid transfer of technology.

  19. Exploring the response of West Siberian wetland methane emissions to future changes in climate, vegetation, and soil microbial communities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. J. Bohn

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We ran the VIC land surface model over the West Siberian Lowland (WSL, forced with outputs from 32 CMIP5 models for the RCP4.5 scenario, and compared the effects of changes in climate and vegetation (leaf area index in particular on predicted wetland CH4 emissions and other fluxes for the period 2071–2100, relative to the period 1981–2010. We also explored possible responses of soil microbial communities to these changes. Our results suggest that, if soil microbial communities acclimatize to elevated temperatures without changes in species abundances, end-of-century CH4 emissions from the WSL will only rise to 3.6 Tg CH4 yr−1 (6% above historical emissions. In contrast, if microbial species abundances in the north additionally shift to resemble those in the south, CH4 emissions will more than double, to 7.3 Tg CH4 yr−1. Crucially, while historical emissions were concentrated in the southern half of the domain, acclimatization plus microbial population shifts concentrate almost 3/4 of future emissions in the northern half of the domain, where the possible release of carbon with permafrost thaw is a concern. In addition, microbial population shifts disproportionately increase microbial activity in the period during and immediately following snowmelt, when highly labile carbon is first thought to be released from the soil. This work indicates the importance of better constraining the responses of soil microbial communities to changes in climate and vegetation as they are critical determinants of the region's future methane emissions.

  20. A Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer HDO/H2O retrieval simulator for climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. H. Sobel

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Retrievals of the isotopic composition of water vapor from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES have unique value in constraining moist processes in climate models. Accurate comparison between simulated and retrieved values requires that model profiles that would be poorly retrieved are excluded, and that an instrument operator be applied to the remaining profiles. Typically, this is done by sampling model output at satellite measurement points and using the quality flags and averaging kernels from individual retrievals at specific places and times. This approach is not reliable when the modeled meteorological conditions influencing retrieval sensitivity are different from those observed by the instrument at short time scales, which will be the case for free-running climate simulations. In this study, we describe an alternative, "categorical" approach to applying the instrument operator, implemented within the NASA GISS ModelE general circulation model. Retrieval quality and averaging kernel structure are predicted empirically from model conditions, rather than obtained from collocated satellite observations. This approach can be used for arbitrary model configurations, and requires no agreement between satellite-retrieved and modeled meteorology at short time scales. To test this approach, nudged simulations were conducted using both the retrieval-based and categorical operators. Cloud cover, surface temperature and free-tropospheric moisture content were the most important predictors of retrieval quality and averaging kernel structure. There was good agreement between the δD fields after applying the retrieval-based and more detailed categorical operators, with increases of up to 30‰ over the ocean and decreases of up to 40‰ over land relative to the raw model fields. The categorical operator performed better over the ocean than over land, and requires further refinement for use outside of the tropics. After applying the TES

  1. Fire emission heights in the climate system – Part 2: Impact on transport, black carbon concentrations and radiation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Veira

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Wildfires represent a major source for aerosols impacting atmospheric radiation, atmospheric chemistry and cloud micro-physical properties. Previous case studies indicated that the height of the aerosol–radiation interaction may crucially affect atmospheric radiation, but the sensitivity to emission heights has been examined with only a few models and is still uncertain. In this study we use the general circulation model ECHAM6 extended by the aerosol module HAM2 to investigate the impact of wildfire emission heights on atmospheric long-range transport, black carbon (BC concentrations and atmospheric radiation. We simulate the wildfire aerosol release using either various versions of a semi-empirical plume height parametrization or prescribed standard emission heights in ECHAM6-HAM2. Extreme scenarios of near-surface or free-tropospheric-only injections provide lower and upper constraints on the emission height climate impact. We find relative changes in mean global atmospheric BC burden of up to 7.9±4.4 % caused by average changes in emission heights of 1.5–3.5 km. Regionally, changes in BC burden exceed 30–40 % in the major biomass burning regions. The model evaluation of aerosol optical thickness (AOT against Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP observations indicates that the implementation of a plume height parametrization slightly reduces the ECHAM6-HAM2 biases regionally, but on the global scale these improvements in model performance are small. For prescribed emission release at the surface, wildfire emissions entail a total sky top-of-atmosphere (TOA radiative forcing (RF of −0.16±0.06 W m−2. The application of a plume height parametrization which agrees reasonably well with observations introduces a slightly stronger negative TOA RF of −0.20±0.07 W m−2. The standard ECHAM6-HAM2 model in which 25 % of the

  2. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacIntosh, C. R.; Shine, K. P.; Collins, W. J.

    2015-04-01

    Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF) (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature-change potential (GTP)) there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane) concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source-receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia). We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field) are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2-3 times larger

  3. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. MacIntosh

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOCs (volatile organic compounds and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP and global temperature-change potential (GTP there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane concentration changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution source–receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in four regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia. We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOCs and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOCs and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP. The differences for the 20 year GTP are smaller than for the GWP for NOx, and similar for the other species. However, estimates of the standard deviation calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the standard deviation at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true standard deviation, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. The order of averaging has most impact on the metrics for NOx, as the net values for these quantities is the residual of the sum of terms of opposing signs. For example, the standard deviation for the 20 year GWP is 2–3

  4. County Governor's climate change work. Roles and responsibilities for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate change; Fylkesmannens klimaarbeid. Roller og oppgaver for aa redusere klimagassutslipp og tilpasse seg klimaendringene

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2009-07-01

    The document provides an overall description of the County Department's tasks in the work of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adaptation to climate change. Chapters 2 and 3 provides a picture of climate change and a description of the County Department's role in the implementation of the national climate policy. Chapter 4 describes the municipalities and county municipalities' responsibilities in climate change. Chapter 5 is a specific review of the County Department of Climate tasks as a regional sector authority in the environmental area, agricultural area and the emergency and civil protection area. (AG)

  5. Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Potential evapotranspiration (PET is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from 12 equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman–Monteith equations reproduces best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the 12 PET equations from HadRM3-Q0. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen–Haise and calibrated Blaney–Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley–Taylor, Makkink, and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as, when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data, this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within

  6. Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Potential evapotranspiration PET is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from twelve equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman-Monteith equations reproduce best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically-based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the twelve PET equations. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen-Hense and calibrated Blaney-Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley-Taylor, Makkink and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of

  7. Climate-driven range shifts explain the distribution of extant gene pools and predict future loss of unique lineages in a marine brown alga.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Assis, J; Serrão, E A; Claro, B; Perrin, C; Pearson, G A

    2014-06-01

    The climate-driven dynamics of species ranges is a critical research question in evolutionary ecology. We ask whether present intraspecific diversity is determined by the imprint of past climate. This is an ongoing debate requiring interdisciplinary examination of population genetic pools and persistence patterns across global ranges. Previously, contrasting inferences and predictions have resulted from distinct genomic coverage and/or geographical information. We aim to describe and explain the causes of geographical contrasts in genetic diversity and their consequences for the future baseline of the global genetic pool, by comparing present geographical distribution of genetic diversity and differentiation with predictive species distribution modelling (SDM) during past extremes, present time and future climate scenarios for a brown alga, Fucus vesiculosus. SDM showed that both atmospheric and oceanic variables shape the global distribution of intertidal species, revealing regions of persistence, extinction and expansion during glacial and postglacial periods. These explained the distribution and structure of present genetic diversity, consisting of differentiated genetic pools with maximal diversity in areas of long-term persistence. Most of the present species range comprises postglacial expansion zones and, in contrast to highly dispersive marine organisms, expansions involved only local fronts, leaving distinct genetic pools at rear edges. Besides unravelling a complex phylogeographical history and showing congruence between genetic diversity and persistent distribution zones, supporting the hypothesis of niche conservatism, range shifts and loss of unique genetic diversity at the rear edge were predicted for future climate scenarios, impoverishing the global gene pool. PMID:24766057

  8. Climate-driven environmental changes around 8,200 years ago favoured increases in cetacean strandings and Mediterranean hunter-gatherers exploited them

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mannino, Marcello A.; Talamo, Sahra; Tagliacozzo, Antonio; Fiore, Ivana; Nehlich, Olaf; Piperno, Marcello; Tusa, Sebastiano; Collina, Carmine; di Salvo, Rosaria; Schimmenti, Vittoria; Richards, Michael P.

    2015-11-01

    Cetacean mass strandings occur regularly worldwide, yet the compounded effects of natural and anthropogenic factors often complicate our understanding of these phenomena. Evidence of past stranding episodes may, thus, be essential to establish the potential influence of climate change. Investigations on bones from the site of Grotta dell’Uzzo in North West Sicily (Italy) show that the rapid climate change around 8,200 years ago coincided with increased strandings in the Mediterranean Sea. Stable isotope analyses on collagen from a large sample of remains recovered at this cave indicate that Mesolithic hunter-gatherers relied little on marine resources. A human and a red fox dating to the 8.2-kyr-BP climatic event, however, acquired at least one third of their protein from cetaceans. Numerous carcasses should have been available annually, for at least a decade, to obtain these proportions of meat. Our findings imply that climate-driven environmental changes, caused by global warming, may represent a serious threat to cetaceans in the near future.

  9. Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Amorim

    Full Text Available Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe. Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a changes in species likely occurrence, b species conservation status, and c level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.

  10. Soil Incubation Study to Assess the Impacts of Manure Application and Climate Change on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agricultural Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schiavone, K.; Barbieri, L.; Adair, C.

    2015-12-01

    Agricultural fields in Vermont's Lake Champlain Basin have problems with the loss of nutrients due to runoff which creates eutrophic conditions in the lakes, ponds and rivers. In efforts to retain nitrogen and other nutrients in the soil farmers have started to inject manure rather than spraying it. Our understanding of the effects this might have on the volatilization of nitrogen into nitrous oxide is limited. Already, agriculture produces 69% of the total nitrous oxide emissions in the US. Understanding that climate change will affect the future of agriculture in Vermont, we set up a soil core incubation test to monitor the emissions of CO₂ and N₂O using a Photoacoustic Gas Sensor (PAS). Four 10 cm soil cores were taken from nine different fertilizer management plots in a No Till corn field; Three Injected plots, three Broadcast plots, and three Plow plots. Frozen soil cores were extracted in early April, and remained frozen before beginning the incubation experiment to most closely emulate three potential spring environmental conditions. The headspace was monitored over one week to get emission rates. This study shows that environmental and fertilizer treatments together do not have a direct correlation to the amount of CO₂ and N₂O emissions from agricultural soil. However, production of CO₂ was 26% more in warmer environmental conditions than in variable(freeze/thaw) environmental conditions. The injected fertilizer produced the most emissions, both CO₂ and N₂O. The total N₂O emissions from Injected soil cores were 2.2x more than from traditional broadcast manure cores. We believe this is likely due to the addition of rich organic matter under anaerobic soil conditions. Although, injected fertilizer is a better application method for reducing nutrient runoff, the global warming potential of N₂O is 298 times that of CO₂. With climate change imminent, assessing the harmful effects and benefits of injected fertilizer is a crucial next step in

  11. Future habitat loss and extinctions driven by land-use change in biodiversity hotspots under four scenarios of climate-change mitigation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jantz, Samuel M; Barker, Brian; Brooks, Thomas M; Chini, Louise P; Huang, Qiongyu; Moore, Rachel M; Noel, Jacob; Hurtt, George C

    2015-08-01

    Numerous species have been pushed into extinction as an increasing portion of Earth's land surface has been appropriated for human enterprise. In the future, global biodiversity will be affected by both climate change and land-use change, the latter of which is currently the primary driver of species extinctions. How societies address climate change will critically affect biodiversity because climate-change mitigation policies will reduce direct climate-change impacts; however, these policies will influence land-use decisions, which could have negative impacts on habitat for a substantial number of species. We assessed the potential impact future climate policy could have on the loss of habitable area in biodiversity hotspots due to associated land-use changes. We estimated past extinctions from historical land-use changes (1500-2005) based on the global gridded land-use data used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report and habitat extent and species data for each hotspot. We then estimated potential extinctions due to future land-use changes under alternative climate-change scenarios (2005-2100). Future land-use changes are projected to reduce natural vegetative cover by 26-58% in the hotspots. As a consequence, the number of additional species extinctions, relative to those already incurred between 1500 and 2005, due to land-use change by 2100 across all hotspots ranged from about 220 to 21000 (0.2% to 16%), depending on the climate-change mitigation scenario and biological factors such as the slope of the species-area relationship and the contribution of wood harvest to extinctions. These estimates of potential future extinctions were driven by land-use change only and likely would have been higher if the direct effects of climate change had been considered. Future extinctions could potentially be reduced by incorporating habitat preservation into scenario development to reduce projected future land-use changes in hotspots or by

  12. Climatization

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grant, Stephen; Tamason, Charlotte Crim; Jensen, Peter Kjær Mackie

    2015-01-01

    by climate change, in order to reach an intended goal or to distractthe discussion from the real problem which might have a different root course than caused bythe climate change effects. The implications of climatization are currently unclear – particularly to what extent climatizinga disaster might......In recent years, there has been a developing trend of labelling some disasters as ‘climatechange disasters’. In doing so, a discursive phenomenon can emerge that the authors havecoined ‘climatization’ which is specified as framing a disastrous event or degraded environmentalcondition as caused...... in the context of Bangladesh – a country that is expectedto be among the worst affected by climate change and a country in which some peopleclaim the effects of climate change can already be seen. A qualitative field study whichincluded key informant interviews, focus group discussions and a literature review...

  13. The Implications of Future Food Demand on Global Land Use, Land-Use Change Emissions, and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvin, K. V.; Wise, M.; Kyle, P.; Luckow, P.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Eom, J.; Kim, S.; Moss, R.; Patel, P.

    2011-12-01

    In 2005, cropland accounted for approximately 10% of global land area. The amount of cropland needed in the future depends on a number of factors including global population, dietary preferences, and agricultural crop yields. In this paper, we explore the effect of various assumptions about global food demand and agricultural productivity between now and 2100 on global land use, land-use change emissions, and climate using the GCAM model. GCAM is a global integrated assessment model, linking submodules of the regionally disaggregated, global economy, energy system, agriculture and land-use, terrestrial carbon cycle, oceans and climate. GCAM simulates supply, demand, and prices for energy and agricultural goods from 2005 to 2100 in 5-year increments. In each time period, the model computes the allocation of land across a variety of land cover types in 151 different regions, assuming that farmers maximize profits and that food demand is relatively inelastic. For this analysis, we look at the effect of alternative socioeconomic pathways, crop yield improvement assumptions, and future meat demand scenarios on the demand for agricultural land. The three socioeconomic pathways explore worlds where global population in 2100 ranges from 6 billion people to 14 billion people. The crop yield improvement assumptions range from a world where yields do not improve beyond today's levels to a world with significantly higher crop productivity. The meat demand scenarios range from a vegetarian world to a world where meat is a dominant source of calories in the global diet. For each of these scenarios, we find that sufficient land exists to feed the global economy. However, rates of deforestation, bioenergy potential, land-use change emissions, and climate change differ across the scenarios. Under less favorable scenarios, deforestation rates, land-use change emissions, and the rate of climate change can be adversely affected.

  14. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2008-03-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.

  15. Reversible and irreversible impacts of greenhouse gas emissions in multi-century projections with the NCAR global coupled carbon cycle-climate model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Froelicher, Thomas L.; Joos, Fortunat [University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, Bern (Switzerland); University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern (Switzerland)

    2010-12-15

    The legacy of historical and the long-term impacts of 21st century greenhouse gas emissions on climate, ocean acidification, and carbon-climate feedbacks are investigated with a coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Emission commitment scenarios with zero emissions after year 2100 and 21st century emissions of 1,800, 900, and 0 gigatons of carbon are run up to year 2500. The reversibility and irreversibility of impacts is quantified by comparing anthropogenically-forced regional changes with internal, unforced climate variability. We show that the influence of historical emissions and of non-CO{sub 2} agents is largely reversible on the regional scale. Forced changes in surface temperature and precipitation become smaller than internal variability for most land and ocean grid cells in the absence of future carbon emissions. In contrast, continued carbon emissions over the 21st century cause irreversible climate change on centennial to millennial timescales in most regions and impacts related to ocean acidification and sea level rise continue to aggravate for centuries even if emissions are stopped in year 2100. Undersaturation of the Arctic surface ocean with respect to aragonite, a mineral form of calcium carbonate secreted by marine organisms, is imminent and remains widespread. The volume of supersaturated water providing habitat to calcifying organisms is reduced from preindustrial 40 to 25% in 2100 and to 10% in 2300 for the high emission case. We conclude that emission trading schemes, related to the Kyoto Process, should not permit trading between emissions of relatively short-lived agents and CO{sub 2} given the irreversible impacts of anthropogenic carbon emissions. (orig.)

  16. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon-chemistry-climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Unger

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar–Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs, prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 = 64–96% and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr−1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.