WorldWideScience

Sample records for climatically driven emissions

  1. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10–90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the

  2. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  3. Functional resilience against climate-driven extinctions

    OpenAIRE

    Liebergesell, Mario; Reu, Björn; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 trait...

  4. Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, L. H.; Collins, W. J.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Cherian, R.; Hodnebrog, Ø.; Myhre, G.; Quaas, J.

    2015-07-01

    Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealized, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the Northern Hemisphere mid and (especially) high latitudes, and showing a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation. Changes in precipitation patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ (Intertropical Convergence Zone), consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker response, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are

  5. Simple emission metrics for climate impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Aamaas

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available In the context of climate change, emissions of different species (e.g., carbon dioxide and methane are not directly comparable since they have different radiative efficiencies and lifetimes. Since comparisons via detailed climate models are computationally expensive and complex, emission metrics were developed to allow a simple and straightforward comparison of the estimated climate impacts of emissions of different species. Emission metrics are not unique and variety of different emission metrics has been proposed, with key choices being the climate impacts and time horizon to use for comparisons. In this paper, we present analytical expressions and describe how to calculate common emission metrics for different species. We include the climate metrics radiative forcing, integrated radiative forcing, temperature change and integrated temperature change in both absolute form and normalised to a reference gas. We consider pulse emissions, sustained emissions and emission scenarios. The species are separated into three types: CO2 which has a complex decay over time, species with a simple exponential decay, and ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOC which indirectly effect climate via various chemical interactions. We also discuss deriving Impulse Response Functions, radiative efficiency, regional dependencies, consistency within and between metrics and uncertainties. We perform various applications to highlight key applications of emission metrics, which show that emissions of CO2 are important regardless of what metric and time horizon is used, but that the importance of short lived climate forcers varies greatly depending on the metric choices made. Further, the ranking of countries by emissions changes very little with different metrics despite large differences in metric values, except for the shortest time horizons (GWP20.

  6. Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Kelly, J; P. A. Makar; Plummer, D. A.

    2012-01-01

    Ten year simulations of North American current and future air-quality were carried out using a regional air-quality model driven by a regional climate model, in turn driven by a general circulation model. Three separate summer scenarios were performed: a scenario representing the years 1997 to 2006, and two SRES A2 climate scenarios for the years 2041 to 2050. The first future climate scenario makes use of 2002 anthropogenic precursor emissions, and the second applied emissions scaling factor...

  7. Climate policy: Reforming emissions trading

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2014-08-01

    Courageous steps are required to reform the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. To this end, an independent carbon authority has been proposed -- this is a move in the right direction, but should be part of a much broader discussion about reforming emissions trading.

  8. Climate impacts of the ECLIPSE future emissions mitigation scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, Laura; Collins, Bill; Olivie, Dirk; Cherian, Ribu; Quaas, Johannes; Myhre, Gunnar; Hodnebrog, Oivind; Skeie, Ragnhild

    2016-04-01

    We investigate the possible near-term climate benefits from mitigating aerosols, ozone and methane. The ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) project developed a realistic emissions inventory based on current legislation for 2005-2050 (CLE), and a corresponding mitigation scenario designed to be beneficial for both air quality and short-term climate impact (MIT). We determine the climate impacts of the MIT scenario, focussing on the period 2040-2050. Four climate models with interactive chemistry and aerosols (HadGEM, NorESM, CESM-CAM4 and ECHAM-HAM) are used to provide multi-model ensembles of both atmosphere-only and coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations, to separate the effective radiative forcing (ERF) and the climate response. The ERFs are derived from the atmosphere-only simulations. In all models the MIT scenario leads to a negative global ERF which is driven mainly by methane emissions reductions. There is variability between models in the relative importance of methane and aerosol emissions reductions, and in the sign of ERF response to aerosol emissions reductions. The climate response to MIT is derived from the coupled simulations. In all models, MIT results in a decrease in the global mean temperature compared to CLE, with a model mean decrease of 0.22°C. The temperature decrease is seen most strongly in the Northern Hemisphere and is particularly strong in the Arctic. The ensembles of coupled-ocean simulations have therefore enabled us to identify a robust cooling signal from the air quality mitigation scenarios, which can be attributed to the different species using the ERFs.

  9. Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenseth, Nils Chr.; Samia, Noelle I.; Viljugrein, Hildegunn;

    2006-01-01

    The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis preva...... in the same region, and they are expected to  continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change.  Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague....... prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1°C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose...

  10. Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

    OpenAIRE

    Murphy, Eugene J.; Trathan, Philip N; Watkins, Jon L.; Reid, Keith; Meredith, Michael P.; Forcada, Jaume; Thorpe, Sally E.; Johnston, Nadine M; Rothery, Peter

    2007-01-01

    Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmosp...

  11. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  12. Climate, energy and emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors question the 4 main concerns that have arisen since the implementation of emission trade markets 3 years ago. First, the allowance policy was not accurate enough and has led to a surplus offer of CO2 allowances. Secondly, the impact on electricity prices of carbon emission costs was all the higher as it happened at the moment of the deregulation of electricity markets. Thirdly, the CO2 allowances whose price will near 14 euros a ton for the 2008-2012 period are accused of hindering the competitiveness of the European industrial sector. Fourth, the present allowance system that gives to new comers free CO2 allowances is not very conducive to the adoption by these new comers of technologies that are less CO2 emitting. Some ways of improvement are given. (A.C.)

  13. Climate change and electricity sector emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A review of greenhouse gas reduction issues of the Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol was presented, including a review of the Berlin mandate, and targets and timetables for greenhouse gas reductions of various countries for 1990, 1995 and 2010. Carbon dioxide emissions outlook for Canada and the United States were examined in the context of the Kyoto commitments. Issues and implications of banking emissions credits and international emissions trading were discussed. The Canadian Electricity Association's support for voluntary action, equitable burden sharing, the removal of obstacles to electricity trade and commitment to promote non-greenhouse gas emitting electricity generation were outlined and reconfirmed.. 2 tabs

  14. Impact of carbonaceous aerosol emissions on regional climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeckner, E.; Stier, P.; Feichter, J.; Kloster, S.; Esch, M.; Fischer-Bruns, I.

    2006-11-01

    The past and future evolution of atmospheric composition and climate has been simulated with a version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). The system consists of the atmosphere, including a detailed representation of tropospheric aerosols, the land surface, and the ocean, including a model of the marine biogeochemistry which interacts with the atmosphere via the dust and sulfur cycles. In addition to the prescribed concentrations of carbon dioxide, ozone and other greenhouse gases, the model is driven by natural forcings (solar irradiance and volcanic aerosol), and by emissions of mineral dust, sea salt, sulfur, black carbon (BC) and particulate organic matter (POM). Transient climate simulations were performed for the twentieth century and extended into the twenty-first century, according to SRES scenario A1B, with two different assumptions on future emissions of carbonaceous aerosols (BC, POM). In the first experiment, BC and POM emissions decrease over Europe and China but increase at lower latitudes (central and South America, Africa, Middle East, India, Southeast Asia). In the second experiment, the BC and POM emissions are frozen at their levels of year 2000. According to these experiments the impact of projected changes in carbonaceaous aerosols on the global mean temperature is negligible, but significant changes are found at low latitudes. This includes a cooling of the surface, enhanced precipitation and runoff, and a wetter surface. These regional changes in surface climate are caused primarily by the atmospheric absorption of sunlight by increasing BC levels and, subsequently, by thermally driven circulations which favour the transport of moisture from the adjacent oceans. The vertical redistribution of solar energy is particularly large during the dry season in central Africa when the anomalous atmospheric heating of up to 60 W m-2 and a corresponding decrease in surface solar radiation leads to a marked surface cooling, reduced

  15. India's emissions in a climate constrained world

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scientific studies have repeatedly shown the need to prevent the increase in global emissions so that the planet's average temperature does not exceed 2 deg. C over pre-industrial levels. While the divisions between Annex 1 and non-Annex nations continue to prevent the realization of a comprehensive global climate treaty, all members of the G-20 (incidentally also major emitters) have agreed to prevent the rise in global temperatures above 2 deg. C. This requires that nations consider budgeting their carbon emissions. India presents a unique case study to examine how a major emitter facing a desperate need to increase energy consumption will meet this challenge. The Greenhouse Development Rights (GDR) framework, perhaps considered the most favorable with respect to the responsibility and capacity of India to reduce emissions, was used to explore India's emissions trajectory. India's emissions have been pegged to the pathway required to meet the 2 deg. C target by non-Annex countries. The results have been compared to the expected emissions from 11 energy fuel mix scenarios up to the year 2031 forecasted by the Planning Commission of India. Results reveal that none of the 11 energy scenarios would help India meet its emissions target if it were to follow the 2 deg. C pathway. A thought experiment is followed to explore how India may meet this target. This includes a sensitivity analysis targeting coal consumption, the biggest contributor to India's emissions. - Highlights: → Reducing emissions within a 2 deg. C climate constrained world requires budgeting of global carbon. → The Greenhouse Development Rights Framework can operationalize articles of the UNFCCC. → India's Integrated Energy Policy 11 scenarios reveal that it will exceed the 2 deg. C target. → Framing India's emissions within a 2 deg. C pathway helps envision the required energy mix.

  16. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Leedale

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  17. Climate change - reducing emissions/VCR update

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With the December 1997 Kyoto Conference serving as background, this presentation examined the problem of carbon dioxide emissions by the petroleum, natural gas, and oil sands industries, and by the electric utilities. Global warming, greenhouse gas emissions and climate change are seen as being among the most serious problems facing the oil and natural gas industries. Since the heavy oil industry is more energy intensive than either the petroleum or natural gas industries, the heavy oil industry faces an even more serious problem. The author also reviewed and updated Canadian achievements in reducing green house gas emissions under the Voluntary Change Registry Program, established following the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Environmental Summit. The expectation at this meeting was that at the Kyoto Conference Canada's negotiating position will be similar to that of the United States, i.e. reducing emissions to 1990 levels between 2008 and 2012, but not so as to adversely affect the economy. It is widely expected that the Kyoto Conference will call for legally binding emission targets for the countries of the developed world, including the countries of the former Soviet Union. Developing countries, including China, will be exempt, on the grounds that their economies are too feeble to withstand the cost of implementing emission control measures at this time. Developing countries apparently agree to install new technologies that reduce emissions, but expect the developing countries to foot the bill

  18. Far-infrared surface emissivity and climate

    OpenAIRE

    Feldman, Daniel R.; Collins, William D.; Pincus, Robert; Huang, Xianglei; Chen, Xiuhong

    2014-01-01

    We find that many of the Earth's climate variables, including surface temperature, outgoing longwave radiation, cooling rates, and frozen surface extent, are sensitive to far-IR surface emissivity, a largely unconstrained, temporally and spatially heterogeneous scaling factor for the blackbody radiation from the surface at wavelengths between 15 μm and 100 μm. We also describe a previously unidentified mechanism that amplifies high-latitude and high-altitude warming in finding significantly l...

  19. Projecting climate-driven increases in North American fire activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, D.; Morton, D. C.; Collatz, G. J.

    2013-12-01

    Climate regulates fire activity through controls on vegetation productivity (fuels), lightning ignitions, and conditions governing fire spread. In many regions of the world, human management also influences the timing, duration, and extent of fire activity. These coupled interactions between human and natural systems make fire a complex component of the Earth system. Satellite data provide valuable information on the spatial and temporal dynamics of recent fire activity, as active fires, burned area, and land cover information can be combined to separate wildfires from intentional burning for agriculture and forestry. Here, we combined satellite-derived burned area data with land cover and climate data to assess fire-climate relationships in North America between 2000-2012. We used the latest versions of the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) burned area product and Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) climate data to develop regional relationships between burned area and potential evaporation (PE), an integrated dryness metric. Logistic regression models were developed to link burned area with PE and individual climate variables during and preceding the fire season, and optimal models were selected based on Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). Overall, our model explained 85% of the variance in burned area since 2000 across North America. Fire-climate relationships from the era of satellite observations provide a blueprint for potential changes in fire activity under scenarios of climate change. We used that blueprint to evaluate potential changes in fire activity over the next 50 years based on twenty models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). All models suggest an increase of PE under low and high emissions scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively), with largest increases in projected burned area across the western US and central Canada. Overall, near

  20. Atmospheric/climatic effects of aircraft emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Exhaust emissions from aircraft include oxides of nitrogen (NOx), water vapor (H2O), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon dioxide (CO2), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and particles (soot and sulfates). These emissions are small compared to industrial/urban surface emissions. However, because (1) atmospheric residence times of exhaust constituents are longer at altitude, particularly in the stratosphere, than they are in the boundary layer, (2) their background concentrations at altitude are lower than those near the surface, (3) the radiation balance is the more sensitive to atmospheric trace constituents the colder the temperature aloft and (4) inter-hemispheric mixing of aircraft effluents is inhibited, aircraft emissions near and above the tropopause and polewards of 40 degrees latitude can be environmentally critical. That's why atmospheric/climatic effects of aircraft emissions have again received scientific, economic and political scrutiny in the last few years, motivated by growth of subsonic traffic at about 5% per year over the past two decades and the advent of a technologically feasible operation of a supersonic high speed commercial transport (HSCT) fleet

  1. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Holmes, C. D.; Prather, M. J.; O.A. Søvde; Myhre, G.

    2012-01-01

    Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in three chemical transport models (CTMs) – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – over the period 1997–2009 and compare the mo...

  2. Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

  3. Predicting when climate-driven phenotypic change affects population dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLean, Nina; Lawson, Callum R; Leech, Dave I; van de Pol, Martijn

    2016-06-01

    Species' responses to climate change are variable and diverse, yet our understanding of how different responses (e.g. physiological, behavioural, demographic) relate and how they affect the parameters most relevant for conservation (e.g. population persistence) is lacking. Despite this, studies that observe changes in one type of response typically assume that effects on population dynamics will occur, perhaps fallaciously. We use a hierarchical framework to explain and test when impacts of climate on traits (e.g. phenology) affect demographic rates (e.g. reproduction) and in turn population dynamics. Using this conceptual framework, we distinguish four mechanisms that can prevent lower-level responses from impacting population dynamics. Testable hypotheses were identified from the literature that suggest life-history and ecological characteristics which could predict when these mechanisms are likely to be important. A quantitative example on birds illustrates how, even with limited data and without fully-parameterized population models, new insights can be gained; differences among species in the impacts of climate-driven phenological changes on population growth were not explained by the number of broods or density dependence. Our approach helps to predict the types of species in which climate sensitivities of phenotypic traits have strong demographic and population consequences, which is crucial for conservation prioritization of data-deficient species. PMID:27062059

  4. Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    Knorr, W.; Dentener, F.; Hantson, S.; Jiang, L.; Klimont, Z.; A. Arneth

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are not only a threat to human property and a vital element of many ecosystems, but also an important source of air pollution. In this study, we first review the available evidence for a past or possible future climate-driven increase in wildfire emissions in Europe. We then introduce an ensemble of model simulations with a coupled wildfire–dynamic-ecosystem model, which we combine with published spatial maps of both wildfire and anthropogenic emissions of several major air pollutan...

  5. Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate

    OpenAIRE

    KNORR Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Hantson, Stijn; Jiang, Leiwen; Klimont, Zbigniew; Arneth, Almut

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are not only a threat to human property and a vital element of many ecosystems, but also an important source of air pollution. In this study, we first review the available evidence for a past or possible future climate-driven increase in wildfire emissions in Europe. We then introduce an ensemble of model simulations with a coupled wildfire–dynamic-ecosystem model, which we combine with published spatial maps of both wildfire and anthropogenic emissions of several ...

  6. Climate-driven diversity loss in a grassland community.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Susan P; Gornish, Elise S; Copeland, Stella

    2015-07-14

    Local ecological communities represent the scale at which species coexist and share resources, and at which diversity has been experimentally shown to underlie stability, productivity, invasion resistance, and other desirable community properties. Globally, community diversity shows a mixture of increases and decreases over recent decades, and these changes have relatively seldom been linked to climatic trends. In a heterogeneous California grassland, we documented declining plant diversity from 2000 to 2014 at both the local community (5 m(2)) and landscape (27 km(2)) scales, across multiple functional groups and soil environments. Communities became particularly poorer in native annual forbs, which are present as small seedlings in midwinter; within native annual forbs, community composition changed toward lower representation of species with a trait indicating drought intolerance (high specific leaf area). Time series models linked diversity decline to the significant decrease in midwinter precipitation. Livestock grazing history, fire, succession, N deposition, and increases in exotic species could be ruled out as contributing causes. This finding is among the first demonstrations to our knowledge of climate-driven directional loss of species diversity in ecological communities in a natural (nonexperimental) setting. Such diversity losses, which may also foreshadow larger-scale extinctions, may be especially likely in semiarid regions that are undergoing climatic trends toward higher aridity and lower productivity. PMID:26100891

  7. A Science-Driven Photojournalistic Documentation of Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braasch, G.; Rothlein, J. E.

    2013-12-01

    Office of the President; two original books (one for middle schools with a co-author); publication in hundreds of magazines, textbooks and public interest websites; use during university, government and civic seminars and scientific meetings; and distribution among and use by Congressional offices. Most recently the project inspired films about youth involvement in citizen science and climate change education; and co-developed Apps for the iPad and iPhone which graphically show climate-driven changes in repeat photographs and maps. Financial support for this work has come principally from publication fees and grants from small foundations and individuals (via Blue Earth Alliance of Seattle).

  8. The ENSO signal in atmospheric composition fields: emission driven vs. dynamically induced changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Inness

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO does not only affect meteorological fields but also has a large impact on atmospheric composition. Atmospheric composition fields from the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC reanalysis are used to identify the ENSO signal in tropospheric ozone, carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide and smoke aerosols, concentrating on the months October to December. During El Niño years all these fields have increased concentrations over maritime South East Asia in October. The MACC Composition Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS model is used to quantify the relative magnitude of dynamically induced and emission driven changes in the atmospheric composition fields. While changes in tropospheric ozone are a combination of dynamically induced and emission driven changes, the changes in carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxide and smoke aerosols are almost entirely emission driven in the MACC model. The ozone changes continue into December, i.e. after the end of the Indonesian fire season while changes in the other fields are confined to the fire season.

  9. Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Simpson

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000–2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the result across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulphur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N-compounds. One model (EMEP was used to explore changes in critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems which exceed critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3 emission increase.

  10. Impacts of climate and emission changes on nitrogen deposition in Europe: a multi-model study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Simpson

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate and emissions changes on the deposition of reactive nitrogen (Nr over Europe was studied using four offline regional chemistry transport models (CTMs driven by the same global projection of future climate over the period 2000–2050. Anthropogenic emissions for the years 2005 and 2050 were used for simulations of both present and future periods in order to isolate the impact of climate change, hemispheric boundary conditions and emissions, and to assess the robustness of the results across the different models. The results from these four CTMs clearly show that the main driver of future N-deposition changes is the specified emission change. Under the specified emission scenario for 2050, emissions of oxidised nitrogen were reduced substantially, whereas emissions of NH3 increase to some extent, and these changes are largely reflected in the modelled concentrations and depositions. The lack of sulfur and oxidised nitrogen in the future atmosphere results in a much larger fraction of NHx being present in the form of gaseous ammonia. Predictions for wet and total deposition were broadly consistent, although the three fine-scale models resolve European emission areas and changes better than the hemispheric-scale model. The biggest difference in the models is for predictions of individual N compounds. One model (EMEP was used to explore changes in critical loads, also in conjunction with speculative climate-induced increases in NH3 emissions. These calculations suggest that the area of ecosystems that exceeds critical loads is reduced from 64% for year 2005 emissions levels to 50% for currently estimated 2050 levels. A possible climate-induced increase in NH3 emissions could worsen the situation, with areas exceeded increasing again to 57% (for a 30% NH3 emission increase.

  11. Temperature-driven groundwater convection in cold climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engström, Maria; Nordell, Bo

    2016-05-01

    The aim was to study density-driven groundwater flow and analyse groundwater mixing because of seasonal changes in groundwater temperature. Here, density-driven convection in groundwater was studied by numerical simulations in a subarctic climate, i.e. where the water temperature was soil permeability and groundwater temperature (i.e. viscosity and density) were determined. The influence of impermeable obstacles in otherwise homogeneous ground was also studied. An initial disturbance in the form of a horizontal groundwater flow was necessary to start the convection. Transient solutions describe the development of convective cells in the groundwater and it took 22 days before fully developed convection patterns were formed. The thermal convection reached a maximum depth of 1.0 m in soil of low permeability (2.71 · 10-9 m2). At groundwater temperature close to its density maximum (4 °C), the physical size (in m) of the convection cells was reduced. Small stones or frost lenses in the ground slightly affect the convective flow, while larger obstacles change the size and shape of the convection cells. Performed simulations show that "seasonal groundwater turnover" occurs. This knowledge may be useful in the prevention of nutrient leakage to underlying groundwater from soils, especially in agricultural areas where no natural vertical groundwater flow is evident. An application in northern Sweden is discussed.

  12. How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lacressonnière

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period: analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run is a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors, and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense. Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 6-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure ldots and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities . . .. Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10

  13. How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lacressonnière

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors, and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense. Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc. and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.. Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM

  14. A framework to understand the transient climate response to emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Williams, Richard G.; Goodwin, Philip; Roussenov, Vassil M.; Bopp, Laurent

    2015-01-01

    Global surface warming projections have been empirically connected to carbon emissions via a climate index defined as the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), revealing that surface warming is nearly proportional to carbon emissions. Here, we provide a theoretical framework to understand the TCRE including the effects of all radiative forcing in terms of the product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing contribution...

  15. Patterns of wildfires and emissions under future climate conditions across the conterminous United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hawbaker, T. J.; Zhu, Z.; Finney, M.; Riley, K. L.; Jolly, W. M.; Keane, R. E.; Reinhardt, E.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change is expected to result in increased wildfire occurrence and greenhouse gas emissions in the conterminous United States. To better understand potential changes and their impacts, we asked: How might such expected changes vary over space and time in the conterminous United States, and across different climate-change scenarios? We quantified baseline patterns of burned area and emissions using burn scars from 2001-2008. Then, we developed a simulation model to assess the influence of climate change on patterns of wildfire ignitions, spread, and emissions. The simulation model was calibrated using historic fire, weather, and climate data and then used to generate projections under the A1B, A2, and B1 climate-change scenarios. We defined typical fire years and extreme fire years as the 50th and 95th percentile of decadal area burned or emissions. Then, we evaluated simulated changes in burned area and emissions among the 2001-2010 and 2041-2050 decades. Across the conterminous United States, our simulations results showed that during a typical fire year, area burned increased 25-52% from 15,700 km2 and emissions increased 20-48% from a baseline level of 56.0 TgCO2-eq. Extreme fire years in the 2041-2050 decade were more extreme than in the baseline period, and area burned increased 65-85% from 31,700 km2 and emissions increased 49-142% from 92.7 TgCO2-eq. Projected changes in fire occurrence and emissions were minimal for the Great Plains, but substantial for the West and certain ecoregions in the East. These results suggest that future wildfire activities could play a larger role in terms of socioeconomic risks and the health and productivity of ecosystems, and that efforts designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will compete with potential carbon losses due to climate-driven increases in wildfire occurrence.

  16. An integrated statistical and data-driven framework for supporting flood risk analysis under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Y.; Qin, X. S.; Xie, Y. J.

    2016-02-01

    An integrated statistical and data-driven (ISD) framework was proposed for analyzing river flows and flood frequencies in the Duhe River Basin, China, under climate change. The proposed framework involved four major components: (i) a hybrid model based on ASD (Automated regression-based Statistical Downscaling tool) and KNN (K-nearest neighbor) was used for downscaling rainfall and CDEN (Conditional Density Estimate Network) was applied for downscaling minimum temperature and relative humidity from global circulation models (GCMs) to local weather stations; (ii) Bayesian neural network (BNN) was used for simulating monthly river flows based on projected weather information; (iii) KNN was applied for converting monthly flow to daily time series; (iv) Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution was adopted for flood frequency analysis. In this study, the variables from CGCM3 A2 and HadCM3 A2 scenarios were employed as the large-scale predictors. The results indicated that the maximum monthly and annual runoffs would both increase under CGCM3 and HadCM3 A2 emission scenarios at the middle and end of this century. The flood risk in the study area would generally increase with a widening uncertainty range. Compared with traditional approaches, the proposed framework takes the full advantages of a series of statistical and data-driven methods and offers a parsimonious way of projecting flood risks under climatic change conditions.

  17. Climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Behrenfeld, Michael J; O'Malley, Robert T; Siegel, David A; McClain, Charles R; Sarmiento, Jorge L; Feldman, Gene C; Milligan, Allen J; Falkowski, Paul G; Letelier, Ricardo M; Boss, Emmanuel S

    2006-12-01

    Contributing roughly half of the biosphere's net primary production (NPP), photosynthesis by oceanic phytoplankton is a vital link in the cycling of carbon between living and inorganic stocks. Each day, more than a hundred million tons of carbon in the form of CO2 are fixed into organic material by these ubiquitous, microscopic plants of the upper ocean, and each day a similar amount of organic carbon is transferred into marine ecosystems by sinking and grazing. The distribution of phytoplankton biomass and NPP is defined by the availability of light and nutrients (nitrogen, phosphate, iron). These growth-limiting factors are in turn regulated by physical processes of ocean circulation, mixed-layer dynamics, upwelling, atmospheric dust deposition, and the solar cycle. Satellite measurements of ocean colour provide a means of quantifying ocean productivity on a global scale and linking its variability to environmental factors. Here we describe global ocean NPP changes detected from space over the past decade. The period is dominated by an initial increase in NPP of 1,930 teragrams of carbon a year (Tg C yr(-1)), followed by a prolonged decrease averaging 190 Tg C yr(-1). These trends are driven by changes occurring in the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are tightly coupled to coincident climate variability. This link between the physical environment and ocean biology functions through changes in upper-ocean temperature and stratification, which influence the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth. The observed reductions in ocean productivity during the recent post-1999 warming period provide insight on how future climate change can alter marine food webs. PMID:17151666

  18. Air quality impacts of European wildfire emissions in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Hantson, Stijn; Jiang, Leiwen; Klimont, Zbigniew; Arneth, Almut

    2016-05-01

    Wildfires are not only a threat to human property and a vital element of many ecosystems, but also an important source of air pollution. In this study, we first review the available evidence for a past or possible future climate-driven increase in wildfire emissions in Europe. We then introduce an ensemble of model simulations with a coupled wildfire-dynamic-ecosystem model, which we combine with published spatial maps of both wildfire and anthropogenic emissions of several major air pollutants to arrive at air pollutant emission projections for several time slices during the 21st century. The results indicate moderate wildfire-driven emission increases until 2050, but there is a possibility of large increases until the last decades of this century at high levels of climate change. We identify southern and north-eastern Europe as potential areas where wildfires may surpass anthropogenic pollution sources during the summer months. Under a scenario of high levels of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP, 8.5), emissions from wildfires in central and northern Portugal and possibly southern Italy and along the west coast of the Balkan peninsula are projected to reach levels that could affect annual mean particulate matter concentrations enough to be relevant for meeting WHO air quality targets.

  19. Climate Change Technology Scenarios: Energy, Emissions, and Economic Implications

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Placet, Marylynn; Humphreys, Kenneth K.; Mahasenan, N Maha

    2004-08-15

    This report describes three advanced technology scenarios and various illustrative cases developed by staff of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) for the U.S. Climate Change Technology Program. These scenarios and illustrative cases explore the energy, emissions and economic implications of using advanced energy technologies and other climate change related technologies to reduce future emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). The cases were modeled using the Mini Climate Assessment Model (MiniCAM) developed by PNNL. The report describes the scenarios, the specifications for the cases, and the results. The report also provides background information on current emissions of GHGs and issues associated with stabilizing GHG concentrations.

  20. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    S. van Wijnbergen; T. Willems

    2012-01-01

    Climate skeptics argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions until we know more. However this paper shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a change of dir

  1. Cavity-enhanced light emission from electrically driven carbon nanotubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyatkov, Felix; Fütterling, Valentin; Khasminskaya, Svetlana; Flavel, Benjamin S.; Hennrich, Frank; Kappes, Manfred M.; Krupke, Ralph; Pernice, Wolfram H. P.

    2016-06-01

    An important advancement towards optical communication on a chip would be the development of integratable, nanoscale photonic emitters with tailored optical properties. Here we demonstrate the use of carbon nanotubes as electrically driven high-speed emitters in combination with a nanophotonic cavity that allows for exceptionally narrow linewidths. The one-dimensional photonic crystal cavities are shown to spectrally select desired emission wavelengths, enhance intensity and efficiently couple light into the underlying photonic network with high reproducibility. Under pulsed voltage excitation, we realize on-chip modulation rates in the GHz range, compatible with active photonic networks. Because the linewidth of the molecular emitter is determined by the quality factor of the photonic crystal, our approach effectively eliminates linewidth broadening due to temperature, surface interaction and hot-carrier injection.

  2. The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla

    2013-01-01

    to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections...... from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1) Emissions can easily vary by 20% for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France....... (2) Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20 %. (3) Climate change may increase emissions by 0–40% in central to northern Europe. (4) Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK...

  3. Emissions and climate forcing from global and Arctic fishing vessels

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKuin, Brandi; Campbell, J. Elliott

    2016-02-01

    Fishing vessels were recently found to be the largest source of black carbon ship emissions in the Arctic, suggesting that the fishing sector should be a focus for future studies. Here we developed a global and Arctic emissions inventory for fishing vessel emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers based on data from a wide range of vessel sizes, fuel sulfur contents, engine types, and operational characteristics. We found that previous work generally underestimated emissions of short-lived climate forcers due to a failure to account for small fishing vessels as well as variability in emission factors. In particular, global black carbon emissions were underestimated by an order of magnitude. Furthermore, our order of magnitude estimate of the net climate effect from these fishing vessel emissions suggests that short-lived climate forcing may be particularly important in regions where fuel has a low sulfur content. These results have implications for proposed maritime policies and provide a foundation for future climate simulations to forecast climate change impacts in the Arctic.

  4. A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

    2011-04-15

    The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

  5. Optimal Learning on Climate Change: Why Climate Skeptics should reduce Emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Wijnbergen, van, S.; Willems, T.

    2012-01-01

    Climate skeptics argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions until we know more. However this paper shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a change of direction facilitates their learning process on the causes of global warming. Since the optimal policy action depends on these causes, they are valuable to know. Although an increase in emissions woul...

  6. Comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter mainly due to growing consumption of fossil fuels. In 2009, the Chinese government committed itself to reducing domestic carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Therefore, it is a top priority for the Chinese government to adopt efficient policy instruments to reduce its carbon intensity. Against this background, this paper develops a general equilibrium model and seeks to provide empirical contributions by comparing the potential impacts of several different policy options to reduce China's carbon emissions. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, these climate policies would affect the structure of economy and contribute to carbon emissions reduction and carbon intensity reduction. Secondly, there would be significant differences in the economic and environmental effects among different climate policies and hence, the government would trade-off among different economic objectives to overcome any potential resistances. Thirdly, there would be considerable differences in the emissions effects of absolute and intensity-based carbon emissions controls, implying that the government might adopt different climate policies for absolute or intensity-based carbon emissions controls. Looking ahead, the government should trade-off among different objectives when designing climate reforms. - Highlights: • We develop a static general equilibrium model to simulate the impacts of climate policies. • We compare the potential impacts of various climate policies in China. • We discuss how to design these policies to make them more effective

  7. Climate change and CO2 emission reductions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper presents the results of an opinion poll performed on a representative sample of 1000 persons about their sensitivity to climate change and to environment protection, their knowledge about technologies which are useful for environment protection, their opinion about geological CO2 sequestration, and technologies to be developed to struggle against climate warming

  8. Climate-driven hydrologic transients in Holocene lake records

    OpenAIRE

    Smith, Alison J; Donovan, Joseph J.; Engstrom, Daniel R.; Ito, Emi; Panek, Valerie; Gong, Eric

    1996-01-01

    Understanding the link between climate and regional hydrologic processes is of primary importance in estimating the possible impact of future climate change and in the validation of climate models that attempt to simulate such changes. Two distinct problems need to be addressed: quantitatively establishing the link between changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle, and determining how these changes are expressed over differing temporal and spatial scales. To solve these problems, our interd...

  9. National and international trade in climate gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    It requires a great deal of effort to get international emission trading into the Kyoto Climate Convention in 1997, and the political debate on the topic has not ended yet. The NRP research project on national and international trade in climate gas emissions was conducted away from the negotiation process, led by its own research agenda. Nevertheless, or possibly even because of that, some of the research results are relevant to policy makers. They have been set down in the NRP report on National and international emission trading for greenhouse gases. This article deals mainly with the politically interesting parts of the research

  10. Particle Emissions from Aviation: Microphysics, Chemistry, and Climate Impact

    OpenAIRE

    Petzold, Andreas

    2006-01-01

    The physical and chemical properties of particles emitted from aviation were identified under cruise altitude conditions and with more detailed methods during ground-test studies. The quantification of emissions for various aircraft resulted in a validated average emission index for particulate black carbon which is today widely used for the calculation of the aviation-related particle emissions in climate models and impact studies. The connection of particle chemical and physical properties ...

  11. Beamed neutron emission driven by laser accelerated light ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, S.; Green, A.; Ahmed, H.; Alejo, A.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Cerchez, M.; Clarke, R.; Doria, D.; Dorkings, S.; Fernandez, J.; Mirfayzi, S. R.; McKenna, P.; Naughton, K.; Neely, D.; Norreys, P.; Peth, C.; Powell, H.; Ruiz, J. A.; Swain, J.; Willi, O.; Borghesi, M.

    2016-05-01

    Highly anisotropic, beam-like neutron emission with peak flux of the order of 109 n/sr was obtained from light nuclei reactions in a pitcher–catcher scenario, by employing MeV ions driven by a sub-petawatt laser. The spatial profile of the neutron beam, fully captured for the first time by employing a CR39 nuclear track detector, shows a FWHM divergence angle of ∼ 70^\\circ , with a peak flux nearly an order of magnitude higher than the isotropic component elsewhere. The observed beamed flux of neutrons is highly favourable for a wide range of applications, and indeed for further transport and moderation to thermal energies. A systematic study employing various combinations of pitcher–catcher materials indicates the dominant reactions being d(p, n+p)1H and d(d,n)3He. Albeit insufficient cross-section data are available for modelling, the observed anisotropy in the neutrons’ spatial and spectral profiles is most likely related to the directionality and high energy of the projectile ions.

  12. Beamed neutron emission driven by laser accelerated light ions

    CERN Document Server

    Kar, S; Ahmed, H; Alejo, A; Robinson, A P L; Cerchez, M; Clarke, R; Doria, D; Dorkings, S; Fernandez, J; Mirfyazi, S R; McKenna, P; Naughton, K; Neely, D; Norreys, P; Peth, C; Powell, H; Ruiz, J A; Swain, J; Willi, O; Borghesi, M

    2015-01-01

    We report on the experimental observation of beam-like neutron emission with peak flux of the order of 10^9 n/sr, from light nuclei reactions in a pitcher-catcher scenario, by employing MeV ions driven by high power laser. The spatial profile of the neutron beam, fully captured for the first time by employing a CR39 nuclear track detector, shows a FWHM divergence angle of 70 degrees, with a peak flux nearly an order of magnitude higher than the isotropic component elsewhere. The observed beamed flux of neutrons is highly favourable for a wide range of applications, and indeed for further transport and moderation to thermal energies. A systematic study employing various combinations of pitcher-catcher materials indicates the dominant reactions being d(p, n+p)^1H and d(d,n)^3He. Albeit insufficient cross-section data are available for modelling, the observed anisotropy in the neutrons' spatial and spectral profiles are most likely related to the directionality and high energy of the projectile ions.

  13. Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

  14. Data driven approaches vs. qualitative approaches in climate change impact and vulnerability assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zebisch, Marc; Schneiderbauer, Stefan; Petitta, Marcello

    2015-04-01

    In the last decade the scope of climate change science has broadened significantly. 15 years ago the focus was mainly on understanding climate change, providing climate change scenarios and giving ideas about potential climate change impacts. Today, adaptation to climate change has become an increasingly important field of politics and one role of science is to inform and consult this process. Therefore, climate change science is not anymore focusing on data driven approaches only (such as climate or climate impact models) but is progressively applying and relying on qualitative approaches including opinion and expertise acquired through interactive processes with local stakeholders and decision maker. Furthermore, climate change science is facing the challenge of normative questions, such us 'how important is a decrease of yield in a developed country where agriculture only represents 3% of the GDP and the supply with agricultural products is strongly linked to global markets and less depending on local production?'. In this talk we will present examples from various applied research and consultancy projects on climate change vulnerabilities including data driven methods (e.g. remote sensing and modelling) to semi-quantitative and qualitative assessment approaches. Furthermore, we will discuss bottlenecks, pitfalls and opportunities in transferring climate change science to policy and decision maker oriented climate services.

  15. Fordism, Finance-driven Capitalism, and Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buch-Hansen, Hubert

    2014-01-01

    Review of Capitalism and Climate Change: Theoretical Discussion, Historical Development and Policy Responses by Max Koch. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012, pp. 240, ISBN: 9780230272514, £55 (hbk.)...

  16. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  17. Historical Pattern and Future Trajectories of Terrestrial N2O Emission driven by Multi-factor Global Changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, C.; Tian, H.; Yang, J.; Zhang, B.; Xu, R.

    2015-12-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) is among the most important greenhouse gases only next to carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to its long life time and high radiative forcing (with a global warming potential 265 times as much as CO2 at 100-year time horizon). The Atmospheric concentration of N2O has increased by 20% since pre-industrial era, and this increase plays a significant role in shaping anthropogenic climate change. However, compared to CO2- and CH4-related research, fewer studies have been performed in assessing and predicting the spatiotemporal patterns of N2O emission from natural and agricultural soils. Here we used a coupled biogeochemical model, DLEM, to quantify the historical and future changes in global terrestrial N2O emissions resulting from natural and anthropogenic perturbations including climate variability, atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, land use and land cover changes, and agricultural land management practices (i.e., synthetic nitrogen fertilizer use, manure application, and irrigation etc.) over the period 1900-2099. We focused on inter-annual variation and long-term trend of terrestrial N2O emission driven by individual and combined environmental changes during historical and future periods. The sensitivity of N2O emission to climate, atmospheric composition, and human activities has been examined at biome-, latitudinal, continental and global scales. Future projections were conducted to identify the hot spots and hot time periods of global N2O emission under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). It provides a modeling perspective for understanding human-induced N2O emission growth and developing potential management strategies to mitigate further atmospheric N2O increase and climate warming.

  18. Effects of climate change on volatile organic compound emissions from soil and litter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, C. M.; Fierer, N.

    2012-12-01

    Our knowledge of the variability and magnitude of volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions from soil and litter is relatively limited compared to what we know about VOC emissions from terrestrial plants. With climate change expecting to alter plant community composition, nitrogen (N) deposition rates, mean annual temperatures, and precipitation patterns, it is unknown how production and consumption of VOCs from litter and soil will respond. We spent the last four years quantifying VOC emissions from soil and litter, comparing VOC emissions to CO2 emissions, and identifying the biotic and abiotic controls on emission rates with both lab and field experiments using a proton transfer reaction mass spectrometer (PTR-MS). In all studies, methanol was the dominant VOC flux. VOC emissions were not driven by abiotic processes, as microbial sources accounted for 78% to 99% of the total VOC emissions from decomposing litter. Litter chemistry was correlated with the types of VOCs emitted and the net emissions of carbon as VOCs was found to be up to 88% of that emitted as CO2 suggesting that VOCs likely represent an important component of the carbon cycle in many terrestrial systems. Nitrogen additions drastically reduced VOC emissions from litter to near zero, though it is still not understood whether this was due to an increase in consumption or a decrease in production. Finally, field and lab experiments show that temperature and moisture are both important controls of certain VOC emissions from soils, but that the effects of these factors on VOC emissions are not necessarily equivalent to their effects on CO2 emissions. Together, these series of studies are moving us toward a predictive understanding of VOC emissions from soil and litter with the ultimate goal of incorporating these VOC emissions into global models of terrestrial VOC dynamics.

  19. Climate, CO2, and demographic impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2015-09-01

    Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilization of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation. Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation - wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations comprise Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models using two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), sensitivity tests for the effect of climate and CO2, as well as a sensitivity analysis using two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and fast urbanisation, or

  20. Greenhouse gas emissions considered responsible for climate change: Environmental indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper concerns the more significant environmental indicators related to the emissions of radiatively and chemically/photochemically active trace gases. Reference is made to the preliminary work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to the proposals made in the framework of the international negotiation on climate change. Aiming to contribute to the definition of a national strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, this paper proposes a possible application of the indicators. The calculation of the indicators is based on the emission estimate performed by ENEA (Italian National Agency for Energy, New Technologies and the Environment) for the Report on the State of the Environment edited by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Finally, the paper suggests an application of such indicators for the international negotiation, in the framework of the Italian proposal for the Convention on climate change

  1. Arctic Shipping Emissions in the Changing Climate

    OpenAIRE

    Vihanninjoki, Vesa

    2014-01-01

    Due to the Arctic climate change and the related diminishing of Arctic sea ice cover, the general conditions for Arctic shipping are changing. The retreat of Arctic sea ice opens up new routes for maritime transportation, both trans-Arctic passages and new alternatives within the Arctic region. Hence the amount of Arctic shipping is presumed to increase. Despite the observed development, the sailing conditions in the Arctic waters will remain challenging. Thus particular attention will be ...

  2. Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

    OpenAIRE

    J. K. Kodros; Scott, C. E.; S. C. Farina; Lee, Y H; C. L'Orange; J. Volckens; Pierce, J. R.

    2015-01-01

    Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing-state, and model ...

  3. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in multiple models over the period 1997–2009, adding sensitivity tests to determine key variables that drive the year-to-year variability. Across three atmospheric chemistry and transport models – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – we find that temperature, water vapor, ozone column, biomass burning and lightning NOx are the dominant sources of interannual changes in methane lifetime. We also evaluate the model responses to forcings that have impacts on decadal time scales, such as methane feedback, and anthropogenic NOx emissions. In general, these different CTMs show similar sensitivities to the driving variables. We construct a parametric model that reproduces most of the interannual variability of each CTM and use it to predict methane lifetime from 1980 through 2100 following a specified emissions and climate scenario (RCP 8.5. The parametric model propagates uncertainties through all steps and provides a foundation for predicting methane abundances in any climate scenario. Our sensitivity tests also enable a new estimate of the methane global warming potential (GWP, accounting for stratospheric ozone effects, including those mediated by water vapor. We estimate the 100-yr GWP to be 32.

  4. Beyond 'dangerous' climate change: emission scenarios for a new world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Kevin; Bows, Alice

    2011-01-13

    The Copenhagen Accord reiterates the international community's commitment to 'hold the increase in global temperature below 2 degrees Celsius'. Yet its preferred focus on global emission peak dates and longer-term reduction targets, without recourse to cumulative emission budgets, belies seriously the scale and scope of mitigation necessary to meet such a commitment. Moreover, the pivotal importance of emissions from non-Annex 1 nations in shaping available space for Annex 1 emission pathways received, and continues to receive, little attention. Building on previous studies, this paper uses a cumulative emissions framing, broken down to Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations, to understand the implications of rapid emission growth in nations such as China and India, for mitigation rates elsewhere. The analysis suggests that despite high-level statements to the contrary, there is now little to no chance of maintaining the global mean surface temperature at or below 2°C. Moreover, the impacts associated with 2°C have been revised upwards, sufficiently so that 2°C now more appropriately represents the threshold between 'dangerous' and 'extremely dangerous' climate change. Ultimately, the science of climate change allied with the emission scenarios for Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 nations suggests a radically different framing of the mitigation and adaptation challenge from that accompanying many other analyses, particularly those directly informing policy. PMID:21115511

  5. Climate effects of reducing black carbon emissions: Dependence on location of emission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuglestvedt, J.; Berntsen, T.; Myhre, G.; Rive, N. A.; Rypdal, K.; Gerland, S.; Pedersen, C.; Strøm, J.

    2006-12-01

    The role played by emissions of black carbon aerosols (BC) on the Earth's climate is diverse and the overall effect is still quite uncertain: Black carbon not only absorbs sunlight (direct effect), but it also has a semi- direct effect on clouds, and when deposited on snow and ice it changes the reflectivity (albedo) of the ground surface. These mechanisms generally have a warming effect on the climate. This poster presents a Norwegian project that focus on the net effect of current BC emissions and future possible reductions in emissions of BC aerosols, taking into account scientific, economic, and political perspectives on the inclusion of BC in climate policies. Thus, the scope of the project is interdisciplinary and includes observations in the Arctic, model simulations of dispersion of BC aerosols, its radiative forcing and climate effects. Some initial results from measurements of BC content in snow from the Norwegian Arctic and corresponding measurements for surface reflectance will be presented. The radiative forcing of BC emissions from different geographical regions differs due to differences in the removal processes (i.e. the lifetime) and the amount of solar radiation available for absorption (depends on latitude, clouds, and surface albedo). The atmospheric burdens and RF (of the direct effect) of regional BC emissions from fossil fuel sources have been calculated by the global chemical transport model Oslo-CTM2 and a radiative transfer model, and first results of time-integrated RF per unit of emission (equivalent to absolute GWPs) are presented. Future plans including i) analysis of cost effective emission reduction strategies, taking into account regional differences the forcing efficiencies, but also cost estimates for BC reductions in the different regions, and ii) an evaluation of the climate effects of the emission reductions through model simulations, including climatic, economic and political perspectives exploring obstacles and opportunities

  6. Climate Stabilization at 2oC and "Net Zero" Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Paltsev, S.; Chen, H.; Haigh, M.; Prinn, R. G.

    2015-12-01

    The goal to stabilize global average surface temperature at 2oC above pre-industrial level has been extensively discussed in climate negotiations. A number of recent publications state that achieving this goal will require net anthropogenic carbon emissions (which may include a carbon sink by carbon capture and sequestration and reforestation) to be reduced to zero between years 2050 and 2100. In this study we explore possible emission scenarios under which surface warming will not exceed 2oC, by means of emission driven climate simulations with an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity linked to an Economic Projection and Policy Analysis Model. We carried out a number of simulations from 1861 to 2500 for different values of parameters defining the strength of the climate system response to radiative forcing and the strength of the carbon cycle and under different anthropogenic emission scenarios. Results of our simulations suggest that anthropogenic emissions do not have to be zero by 2050 or 2100 because of carbon sinks in oceans and terrestrial ecosystems. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions falling from today's 36 GtCO2/year to 11-25 GtCO2/year by 2050 and then to 4.5-12 GtCO2/year by 2100 is consistent with a 2°C target for the range of climate sensitivity similar to the IPCC likely range. Long-term changes in the surface temperature depend on the emissions profiles after 2100. For post-2100 carbon emissions decreasing at a rate of about 0.2% per year, natural ecosystems will be able to absorb enough carbon, that together with decreases in emissions of other GHGs, can prevent surface temperature from rising. Technology mixes and costs to achieve the 2°C target are highly dependent on the assumptions about the future costs of low-carbon and zero-carbon technologies. In all scenarios, the energy system required substantial transformations in a relatively short time. Under current assumptions about the cost trajectories for the needed technologies, the 2

  7. A framework to understand the transient climate response to emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global surface warming projections have been empirically connected to carbon emissions via a climate index defined as the transient climate response to emissions (TCRE), revealing that surface warming is nearly proportional to carbon emissions. Here, we provide a theoretical framework to understand the TCRE including the effects of all radiative forcing in terms of the product of three terms: the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing, the fractional radiative forcing contribution from atmospheric CO2 and the dependence of radiative forcing from atmospheric CO2 on cumulative carbon emissions. This framework is used to interpret the climate response over the next century for two Earth System Models of differing complexity, both containing a representation of the carbon cycle: an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity, configured as an idealised coupled atmosphere and ocean, and an Earth System Model, based on an atmosphere–ocean general circulation model and including non-CO2 radiative forcing and a land carbon cycle. Both Earth System Models simulate only a slight decrease in the TCRE over 2005–2100. This limited change in the TCRE is due to the ocean and terrestrial system acting to sequester both heat and carbon: carbon uptake acts to decrease the dependence of radiative forcing from CO2 on carbon emissions, which is partly compensated by changes in ocean heat uptake acting to increase the dependence of surface warming on radiative forcing. On decadal timescales, there are larger changes in the TCRE due to changes in ocean heat uptake and changes in non-CO2 radiative forcing, as represented by decadal changes in the dependences of surface warming on radiative forcing and the fractional radiative forcing contribution from atmospheric CO2. Our framework may be used to interpret the response of different climate models and used to provide traceability between climate models of differing complexity. (letter)

  8. Multimodel emission metrics for regional emissions of short lived climate forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aamaas, B.; Berntsen, T. K.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Shine, K. P.; Bellouin, N.

    2015-09-01

    For short lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemistry-transport or coupled-chemistry climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May-October) and winter season (November-April) for emissions from Europe, East Asia, as well as the global shipping sector. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosols precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), and ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOC), which also influence aerosols, to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated relative to CO2, using Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramp up period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies. For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOC. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of a mitigation policy package is robust even when accounting for correlations. For

  9. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J. T.; Gardner, A. S.; Famiglietti, J. S.; Wiese, D. N.; Eicker, A.; Lo, M.-H.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level.

  10. From climate change to emissions trading : a briefing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Global warming is caused by the presence of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the earth's atmosphere. These gases include, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxides, sulphur dioxide and methane. GHGs trap heat between the earth's atmosphere and the earth's surface to cause an overall warming trend of the Earth. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was established to address the issue of climate change and to determine the anthropogenic impact on climate change. Evidence from ice cores suggest that global warming has occurred in the past. The current state of global warming was examined by comparing the climate of today with that of the past. It was determined that the current global warming trend surpasses that of any ever observed in the past. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 as a policy set to address the need for the world to reduce GHG emissions into the atmosphere. The Kyoto Protocol puts forth 3 sets of mechanisms to help businesses reduce GHG emissions. Emissions trading is one of them: it is a financial flexibility mechanism that allows businesses that have emitted more than their allowed share of GHGs to buy allowances from business that have emitted fewer GHGs than they were allowed. Emissions trading does not create reductions, however, it identifies the most economical solution to reduce GHGs. TransAlta, Ontario Power Generation and Suncor have conducted a few transactions to see how the market will work. There will be a global register to keep track of all assigned allowances. The paper described government action in addressing the climate change issue with reference to actions in the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland. Canada has initiated the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading Pilot (GERT) to test the effectiveness of emission reduction trading for GHGs in the Canadian context. GERT is a partnership between the federal government, some provinces, industry, labour and environmental groups. Ontario has established a

  11. Climate Change Impacts and Market Driven Adaptation: the Costs of Inaction Including Market Rigidities

    OpenAIRE

    Francesco Bosello; Ramiro Parrado

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a first exercise comparing the cost of climate change stemming from integrated assessment models using reduced-form climate change damage functions with that performed by a CGE model. Furthermore, it investigates the role of market driven adaptation, which CGE models explicitly capture through their endogenous price setting mechanism, in determining these estimates. It is shown that world GDP losses computed by the CGE model are not significantly different from that used b...

  12. High resolution isoprene emissions over Europe in past and future climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; Berckmans, Julie; Caluwaerts, Steven; De Troch, Rozemien; De Cruz, Lesley; Giot, Olivier; Hamdi, Rafiq; Termonia, Piet; Schaeybroeck, Bert

    2016-04-01

    Isoprene is a key tropospheric species, well known as the dominant biogenic hydrocarbon emitted in the atmosphere, with global annual emissions of about 400-600 Tg (Guenther et al. 2006). It is highly reactive, enhances tropospheric ozone formation in polluted environments and contributes to secondary aerosol formation. The emissions of isoprene (and other biogenic VOCs) depend on the type and abundance of plants, and are modulated by meteorological parameters. Climate changes can therefore affect the spatiotemporal and interannual variation of these emissions. In this study we propose to use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model (Muller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) to calculate the isoprene fluxes emitted by vegetation in past and future climate over the European (EURO-CORDEX) domain at a resolution of 12.5 km. More specifically, isoprene emissions over 1979-2012 will be calculated based either on ECMWF reanalysis data or on meteorological output from the ALARO-0 climate model (Giot et al., 2015). The impact of solar radiation changes, observed at European stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo et al., 2015), on the modelled emissions will also be investigated. MEGAN-MOHYCAN simulations will be performed over the period 2040-2100 based on input from ALARO-0 model driven by the RCP8.5 scenario. The isoprene interannual variability and emission trends will be derived and thoroughly discussed. Giot, O. et al.: Validation of the ALARO-0 model within the EURO-CORDEX framework, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., 8, 8387-8409, 2015. Guenther, A. et al.: Estimates of global terrestrial isoprene emissions using MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 6, 3181-3210, 2006. Müller, J.-F. et al.: Global isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN, ECMWF analyses and a detailed canopy environmental model, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8, 1329-1341, 2008. Sanchez-Lorenzo, A. et al.: Reassessment and update of long-term trends in downward surface shortwave radiation over

  13. Australia's Dengue Risk Driven by Human Adaptation to Climate Change

    OpenAIRE

    Beebe, Nigel W.; Cooper, Robert D; Mottram, Pipi; Anthony W Sweeney

    2009-01-01

    Background The reduced rainfall in southeast Australia has placed this region's urban and rural communities on escalating water restrictions, with anthropogenic climate change forecasts suggesting that this drying trend will continue. To mitigate the stress this may place on domestic water supply, governments have encouraged the installation of large domestic water tanks in towns and cities throughout this region. These prospective stable mosquito larval sites create the possibility of the re...

  14. Climate-driven enrichment of pollutants in peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Martínez Cortizas

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands play an important role for global carbon dynamics, acting as a sink or source depending on climate. Such changes imply a series of additional effects because peatlands are also an important reservoir of atmospherically derived pollutants. Using a multiproxy approach (non-pollen-palynomorphs, δ15N, C/N, Se, Br, I, Hg, Ti, we show a relationship between climate (wetter–drier and peat decomposition, which affected element concentrations in a Spanish bog during the last 5500 years. Changes in superficial wetness played a critical role in the cycling of elements coupled to carbon dynamics. Dry phases caused increased peat mineralisation, resulting in a 2–3 times increase in concentrations of the analysed elements independent from atmospheric fluxes. Under the present trend of climate change large areas of northern peatlands are expected to be severely affected; in this context our findings indicate that the increase in carbon release, which leads to an enrichment of elements, may enhance the export of stored contaminants (Hg, organohalogens to the aquatic systems or to the atmosphere.

  15. Climate-driven enrichment of pollutants in peatlands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Martínez Cortizas

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Peatlands play an important role for global carbon dynamics, acting as a sink or source depending on climate. Such changes imply a series of additional effects because peatlands are also an important reservoir of atmospherically derived pollutants. Using a multiproxy approach (non-pollen-palynomorphs, δ15N, C/N, Se, Br, I, Hg, Ti, we show a relationship between climate (wetter-drier and peat decomposition, which affected element concentrations in a Spanish bog during the last 5500 years. Changes in superficial wetness played a critical role in the cycling of elements coupled to carbon dynamics. Dry phases caused increased peat mineralisation, resulting in a 2–3 times increase in concentrations of the analysed elements independent from atmospheric fluxes. Under the present trend of climate change large areas of northern peatlands are expected to be severely affected; in this context our findings indicate that the increase in carbon release, which leads to an enrichment of elements, may enhance the export of stored contaminants (Hg, organohalogens to the aquatic systems or to the atmosphere.

  16. Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Policy makers have called for a ‘fair and ambitious’ global climate agreement. Scientific constraints, such as the allowable carbon emissions to avoid exceeding a 2 °C global warming limit with 66% probability, can help define ambitious approaches to climate targets. However, fairly sharing the mitigation challenge to meet a global target involves human values rather than just scientific facts. We develop a framework based on cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide to compare the consistency of countries’ current emission pledges to the ambition of keeping global temperatures below 2 °C, and, further, compare two alternative methods of sharing the remaining emission allowance. We focus on the recent pledges and other official statements of the EU, USA, and China. The EU and US pledges are close to a 2 °C level of ambition only if the remaining emission allowance is distributed based on current emission shares, which is unlikely to be viewed as ‘fair and ambitious’ by others who presently emit less. China’s stated emissions target also differs from measures of global fairness, owing to emissions that continue to grow into the 2020s. We find that, combined, the EU, US, and Chinese pledges leave little room for other countries to emit CO2 if a 2 °C limit is the objective, essentially requiring all other countries to move towards per capita emissions 7 to 14 times lower than the EU, USA, or China by 2030. We argue that a fair and ambitious agreement for a 2 °C limit that would be globally inclusive and effective in the long term will require stronger mitigation than the goals currently proposed. Given such necessary and unprecedented mitigation and the current lack of availability of some key technologies, we suggest a new diplomatic effort directed at ensuring that the necessary technologies become available in the near future. (letter)

  17. Costs of Emission Metrics in the Context of Climate Stabilizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Katsumasa; Johansson, Daniel; O'Neill, Brian; Fuglestvedt, Jan

    2014-05-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) calls for stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system (Article 2) and stipulates that policies and measures should cover all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs of greenhouse gases (Article 3.3). An emission metric to evaluate emissions of non-CO2 gases on a common scale of CO2 is critical for climate policymaking and also essential in a single basket approach to GHG emission abatement to achieve climate stabilization (for example, at 2°C warming target as recognized in the Cancún Agreements). While the Global Warming Potential (GWP) is by far the most common metric used in climate policies (e.g. Kyoto Protocol), alternative metrics are proposed to overcome deficiencies in the GWP. Those include the Cost-Effective Temperature Potential (CETP), Forcing Equivalent Index (FEI), Global Cost Potential (GCP), Global Damage Potential (GDP), Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), Mean Global Temperature change Potential (MGTP), Peak Commitment Temperature (PCT), Regional Temperature change Potential (RTP), Sustained Emission Temperature (SET), and TEMperature Proxy index (TEMP). A number of studies provide estimates of such metrics for different gases under a variety of assumptions and approaches. It has been demonstrated that emission metrics take a large range of values when compared in the context of climate stabilization, depending largely on the metric structure and the treatment of the time dimension. On the contrary, the differences in stabilization costs arising from the choice of metrics are shown to be disproportionally small in both cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit frameworks (i.e. a few to several percent higher costs relative to those based on optimal price ratios). However, only a limited set of metrics has been a subject of cost estimation and such calculations

  18. Climate, energy and emissions trading in the EU and DK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    European Union member states are facing two serious challenges: human-induced climatic changes and oil shortage. Evidence that human-induced global heating is threatening the climatic balance is piling up and the conflicts over the last oil resources are becoming critical. The European Union has neither large oil resources nor foreign-political or military power to conquer additional oil resources. The EU Commission's awareness of these facts is influencing the EU energy and climate policy. Recently EU launched the directive on carbon dioxide emissions trading within certain energy-heavy sectors. The greenhouse gas emission allowance trading directive requires a national ceiling on the allocation of CO2 quotas for the heavy industry and energy sectors, thus adapting the quantity of quotas to the Kyoto requirements. This requirement can be quite extensive for the sectors affected by the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading directive, if national governments choose to abstain from political intervention in order to reduce release of greenhouse gases in sectors outside the emissions trading, e.g. agriculture, transportation, households, and smaller industry and service. Lack of action in these sectors will require the governments to impose either large burdens or use of national Joint Implementation and Clean Development agreements on the heavy industry and energy sectors outside national borders, thus conflicting with the Kyoto Protocol. (BA)

  19. A Data Driven Framework for Integrating Regional Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lansing, C.; Kleese van Dam, K.; Liu, Y.; Elsethagen, T.; Guillen, Z.; Stephan, E.; Critchlow, T.; Gorton, I.

    2012-12-01

    There are increasing needs for research addressing complex climate sensitive issues of concern to decision-makers and policy planners at a regional level. Decisions about allocating scarce water across competing municipal, agricultural, and ecosystem demands is just one of the challenges ahead, along with decisions regarding competing land use priorities such as biofuels, food, and species habitat. Being able to predict the extent of future climate change in the context of introducing alternative energy production strategies requires a new generation of modeling capabilities. We will also need more complete representations of human systems at regional scales, incorporating the influences of population centers, land use, agriculture and existing and planned electrical demand and generation infrastructure. At PNNL we are working towards creating a first-of-a-kind capability known as the Integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM). The fundamental goal of the iRESM initiative is the critical analyses of the tradeoffs and consequences of decision and policy making for integrated human and environmental systems. This necessarily combines different scientific processes, bridging different temporal and geographic scales and resolving the semantic differences between them. To achieve this goal, iRESM is developing a modeling framework and supporting infrastructure that enable the scientific team to evaluate different scenarios in light of specific stakeholder questions such as "How do regional changes in mean climate states and climate extremes affect water storage and energy consumption and how do such decisions influence possible mitigation and carbon management schemes?" The resulting capability will give analysts a toolset to gain insights into how regional economies can respond to climate change mitigation policies and accelerated deployment of alternative energy technologies. The iRESM framework consists of a collection of coupled models working with high

  20. Monitoring strategies of stream phosphorus under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goyenola, Guillermo; Meerhoff, Marianna; Teixeira-de Mello, Franco;

    2015-01-01

    Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from land to downstream aquatic systems, in particular of phosphorus (P) from agricultural lands. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the differences in P export patterns and the...... performance of alternative monitoring strategies in streams under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes. We compared a set of paired streams draining lowland micro-catchments under temperate climate and stable discharge conditions (Denmark) and under sub-tropical climate and flashy conditions (Uruguay). We...... program to estimate P exports in flashy streams compared to the less variable streams. We also found signs of interaction between climate/hydrology and land use intensity, in particular in the presence of point sources of P, leading to a bias towards underestimation of P in hydrologically stable streams...

  1. Climate impacts of energy technologies depend on emissions timing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Morgan R.; Trancik, Jessika E.

    2014-05-01

    Energy technologies emit greenhouse gases with differing radiative efficiencies and atmospheric lifetimes. Standard practice for evaluating technologies, which uses the global warming potential (GWP) to compare the integrated radiative forcing of emitted gases over a fixed time horizon, does not acknowledge the importance of a changing background climate relative to climate change mitigation targets. Here we demonstrate that the GWP misvalues the impact of CH4-emitting technologies as mid-century approaches, and we propose a new class of metrics to evaluate technologies based on their time of use. The instantaneous climate impact (ICI) compares gases in an expected radiative forcing stabilization year, and the cumulative climate impact (CCI) compares their time-integrated radiative forcing up to a stabilization year. Using these dynamic metrics, we quantify the climate impacts of technologies and show that high-CH4-emitting energy sources become less advantageous over time. The impact of natural gas for transportation, with CH4 leakage, exceeds that of gasoline within 1-2 decades for a commonly cited 3 W m-2 stabilization target. The impact of algae biodiesel overtakes that of corn ethanol within 2-3 decades, where algae co-products are used to produce biogas and corn co-products are used for animal feed. The proposed metrics capture the changing importance of CH4 emissions as a climate threshold is approached, thereby addressing a major shortcoming of the GWP for technology evaluation.

  2. Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Dibari

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month and response variables (presence/absence of pastures to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%. Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46% and B2 (–41% along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the

  3. Climate-driven polar motion: 2003-2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R

    2016-04-01

    Earth's spin axis has been wandering along the Greenwich meridian since about 2000, representing a 75° eastward shift from its long-term drift direction. The past 115 years have seen unequivocal evidence for a quasi-decadal periodicity, and these motions persist throughout the recent record of pole position, in spite of the new drift direction. We analyze space geodetic and satellite gravimetric data for the period 2003-2015 to show that all of the main features of polar motion are explained by global-scale continent-ocean mass transport. The changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) and global cryosphere together explain nearly the entire amplitude (83 ± 23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9° ± 7.6°) of the observed motion. We also find that the TWS variability fully explains the decadal-like changes in polar motion observed during the study period, thus offering a clue to resolving the long-standing quest for determining the origins of decadal oscillations. This newly discovered link between polar motion and global-scale TWS variability has broad implications for the study of past and future climate. PMID:27152348

  4. Improving pan-European hydrological simulation of extreme events through statistical bias correction of RCM-driven climate simulations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Rojas

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available In this work we asses the benefits of removing bias in climate forcing data used for hydrological climate change impact assessment at pan-European scale, with emphasis on floods. Climate simulations from the HIRHAM5-ECHAM5 model driven by the SRES-A1B emission scenario are corrected for bias using a histogram equalization method. As target for the bias correction we employ gridded interpolated observations of precipitation, average, minimum, and maximum temperature from the E-OBS data set. Bias removal transfer functions are derived for the control period 1961–1990. These are subsequently used to correct the climate simulations for the control period, and, under the assumption of a stationary error model, for the future time window 2071–2100. Validation against E-OBS climatology in the control period shows that the correction method performs successfully in removing bias in average and extreme statistics relevant for flood simulation over the majority of the European domain in all seasons. This translates into considerably improved simulations with the hydrological model of observed average and extreme river discharges at a majority of 554 validation river stations across Europe. Probabilities of extreme events derived employing extreme value techniques are also more closely reproduced. Results indicate that projections of future flood hazard in Europe based on uncorrected climate simulations, both in terms of their magnitude and recurrence interval, are likely subject to large errors. Notwithstanding the inherent limitations of the large-scale approach used herein, this study strongly advocates the removal of bias in climate simulations prior to their use in hydrological impact assessment.

  5. Influence of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, natural emissions, and air quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobson, Mark Z.; Streets, David G.

    2009-04-01

    This study examines the effects of future anthropogenic emissions on climate, and the resulting feedback to natural emissions and air quality. Speciated sector- and region-specific 2030 emission factors were developed to produce gas and particle emission inventories that followed Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A1B and B1 emission trajectories. Current and future climate model simulations were run, in which anthropogenic emission changes affected climate, which fed back to natural emissions from lightning (NO, NO2, HONO, HNO3, N2O, H2O2, HO2, CO), soils (dust, bacteria, NO, N2O, H2, CH4, H2S, DMS, OCS, CS2), the ocean (bacteria, sea spray, DMS, N2O, H2, CH4), vegetation (pollen, spores, isoprene, monoterpenes, methanol, other VOCs), and photosynthesis/respiration. New methods were derived to calculate lightning flash rates as a function of size-resolved collisions and other physical principles and pollen, spore, and bacteria emissions. Although the B1 scenario was "cleaner" than the A1B scenario, global warming increased more in the B1 scenario because much A1B warming was masked by additional reflective aerosol particles. Thus neither scenario is entirely beneficial from a climate and health perspective, and the best control measure is to reduce warming gases and warming/cooling particles together. Lightning emissions declined by ˜3% in the B1 scenario and ˜12% in the A1B scenario as the number of ice crystals, thus charge-separating bounceoffs, decreased. Net primary production increased by ˜2% in both scenarios. Emissions of isoprene and monoterpenes increased by ˜1% in the A1B scenario and 4-5% in the B1 scenario. Near-surface ozone increased by ˜14% in the A1B scenario and ˜4% in the B1 scenario, reducing ambient isoprene in the latter case. Gases from soils increased in both scenarios due to higher temperatures. Near-surface PM2.5 mass increased by ˜2% in the A1B scenario and decreased by ˜2% in the B1 scenario. The resulting 1.4% higher

  6. Properties of a field emission-driven Townsend discharge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rumbach, Paul; Go, David

    2012-10-01

    For half a century, it has been known that the onset of field emission in direct current (DC) microplasmas with gap sizes less than 10 μm can lead to breakdown at applied voltages far less than predicted by Paschen's law. It is still unclear how field emission affects other fundamental plasma properties at this scale. In this work, a one-dimensional fluid model is used to predict basic scaling laws for fundamental properties such as ion density, electric field due to space charge, and current voltage relations in the pre-breakdown regime. Computational results are compared with approximate analytic solutions. It is shown that ionizing collisions by field-emitted electrons produce significant ion densities well before Paschen's criteria for breakdown is met. When positive space charge densities become sufficiently large, the effect of ion-enhanced field emission leads to breakdown. Defining breakdown mathematically using a solvability condition leads to a full modified Paschen's curve, while defining it physically in terms of a critical ion density leads analytically to an effective secondary emission coefficient, γ', of the form initially suggested by Boyle and Kisliuk.footnotetextBoyle, W.S. and Kisliuk, P., Phys. Rev. 97, 255 (1955).

  7. Future methane, hydroxyl, and their uncertainties: key climate and emission parameters for future predictions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Holmes

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate prediction of future methane abundances following a climate scenario requires understanding the lifetime changes driven by anthropogenic emissions, meteorological factors, and chemistry-climate feedbacks. Uncertainty in any of these influences or the underlying processes implies uncertainty in future abundance and radiative forcing. We simulate methane lifetime in three chemical transport models (CTMs – UCI CTM, GEOS-Chem, and Oslo CTM3 – over the period 1997–2009 and compare the models' year-to-year variability against constraints from global methyl chloroform observations. Using sensitivity tests, we find that temperature, water vapor, stratospheric ozone column, biomass burning and lightning NOx are the dominant sources of interannual changes in methane lifetime in all three models. We also evaluate each model's response to forcings that have impacts on decadal time scales, such as methane feedback, and anthropogenic emissions. In general, these different CTMs show similar sensitivities to the driving variables. We construct a parametric model that reproduces most of the interannual variability of each CTM and use it to predict methane lifetime from 1980 through 2100 following a specified emissions and climate scenario (RCP 8.5. The parametric model propagates uncertainties through all steps and provides a foundation for predicting methane abundances in any climate scenario. Our sensitivity tests also enable a new estimate of the methane global warming potential (GWP, accounting for stratospheric ozone effects, including those mediated by water vapor. We estimate the 100-yr GWP to be 32, which is 25% larger than past assessments.

  8. Incoherent synchrotron emission of laser-driven plasma edge

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Serebryakov, D. A., E-mail: dmserebr@gmail.com; Nerush, E. N.; Kostyukov, I. Yu. [Institute of Applied Physics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 46 Ulyanov St., Nizhny Novgorod 603950 (Russian Federation); Nizhny Novgorod State University, 23 Gagarin Avenue, Nizhny Novgorod 603950 (Russian Federation)

    2015-12-15

    When a relativistically intense linearly polarized laser pulse is incident on an overdense plasma, a dense electron layer is formed on the plasma edge which relativistic motion results in high harmonic generation, ion acceleration, and incoherent synchrotron emission of gamma-photons. Here we present a self-consistent analytical model that describes the edge motion and apply it to the problem of incoherent synchrotron emission by ultrarelativistic plasma electrons. The model takes into account both coherent radiation reaction from high harmonics and incoherent radiation reaction in the Landau–Lifshitz form. The analytical results are in agreement with 3D particle-in-cell simulations in a certain parameter region that corresponds to the relativistic electronic spring interaction regime.

  9. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  10. Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kelly

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Ten year simulations of North American current and future air-quality were carried out using a regional air-quality model driven by a regional climate model, in turn driven by a general circulation model. Three separate summer scenarios were performed: a scenario representing the years 1997 to 2006, and two SRES A2 climate scenarios for the years 2041 to 2050. The first future climate scenario makes use of 2002 anthropogenic precursor emissions, and the second applied emissions scaling factors derived from the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP 6 scenario to estimate emissions for 2050 from existing 2020 projections. Ten-year averages of ozone and PM2.5 at North American monitoring network stations were used to evaluate the model's current chemical climatology. The model was found to have a similar performance for ozone as when driven by an operational weather forecast model. The PM2.5 predictions had larger negative biases, likely resulting from the absence of rainwater evaporation, and from sub-regional negative biases in the surface temperature fields, in the version of the climate model used here.

    The differences between the two future climate simulations and the current climate simulation were used to predict the changes to air-quality that might be expected in a future warmer climate, if anthropogenic precursor emissions remain constant at their current levels, versus if the RCP 6 emissions controls were adopted. Metrics of concentration, human health, and ecosystem damage were compared for the simulations. The scenario with future climate and current anthropogenic emissions resulted in worse air-quality than for current conditions – that is, the effect of climate-change alone, all other factors being similar, would be a worsening of air-quality. These effects are spatially inhomogeneous, with the magnitude and sign of the changes varying with region. The scenario with future climate and RCP 6

  11. Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kelly

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Ten year simulations of North American current and future air-quality were carried out using a regional air-quality model driven by a regional climate model, in turn driven by a general circulation model. Three separate summer scenarios were performed: a scenario representing the years 1997 to 2006, and two SRES A2 climate scenarios for the years 2041 to 2050. The first future climate scenario makes use of 2002 anthropogenic precursor emissions, and the second applied emissions scaling factors derived from the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP 6 scenario to estimate emissions for 2050 from existing 2020 projections. Ten-year averages of ozone and PM2.5 at North American monitoring network stations were used to evaluate the model's current chemical climatology. The model was found to have a similar performance for ozone as when driven by an operational weather forecast model. The PM2.5 predictions had larger negative biases, likely resulting from the absence of rainwater evaporation, and from sub-regional negative biases in the surface temperature fields, in the version of the climate model used here.

    The differences between the two future climate simulations and the current climate simulation were used to predict the changes to air-quality that might be expected in a future warmer climate, if anthropogenic precursor emissions remain constant at their current levels, versus if the RCP 6 emissions controls were adopted. Metrics of concentration, human health, and ecosystem damage were compared for the simulations. The scenario with future climate and current anthropogenic emissions resulted in worse air-quality than for current conditions – that is, the effect of climate-change alone, all other factors being similar, would be a worsening of air-quality. These effects are spatially inhomogeneous, with the magnitude and sign of the changes varying with region. The scenario with future climate and RCP 6

  12. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Lessons from state climate action plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pollak, Melisa, E-mail: mpollak@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Meyer, Bryn, E-mail: meye1058@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Wilson, Elizabeth, E-mail: ewilson@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    We examine how state-level factors affect greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy preference across the United States by analyzing climate action plans (CAPs) developed in 11 states and surveying the CAP advisory group members. This research offers insights into how states approach the problem of choosing emissions-abatement options that maximize benefits and minimize costs, given their unique circumstances and the constellation of interest groups with power to influence state policy. The state CAPs recommended ten popular GHG reduction strategies to accomplish approximately 90% of emissions reductions, but they recommended these popular strategies in different proportions: a strategy that is heavily relied on in one state's overall portfolio may play a negligible role in another state. This suggests that any national policy to limit GHG emissions should encompass these key strategies, but with flexibility to allow states to balance their implementation for the state's unique geographic, economic, and political circumstances. Survey results strongly support the conclusion that decisions regarding GHG reductions are influenced by the mix of actors at the table. Risk perception is associated with job type for all strategies, and physical and/or geographic factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain GHG reduction strategies across states. - Highlights: > This study analyzed climate action plans from 12 states and surveyed the advisory group members. > Ten strategies supply 90% of recommended emission reductions, but states weigh them differently. > Advisory group members perceived different opportunities and risks in the top-ten strategies. > Both geographic and socio-political factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain strategies. > Cost, business practices and consumer behavior were ranked as the top barriers to reducing emissions.

  13. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Lessons from state climate action plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We examine how state-level factors affect greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy preference across the United States by analyzing climate action plans (CAPs) developed in 11 states and surveying the CAP advisory group members. This research offers insights into how states approach the problem of choosing emissions-abatement options that maximize benefits and minimize costs, given their unique circumstances and the constellation of interest groups with power to influence state policy. The state CAPs recommended ten popular GHG reduction strategies to accomplish approximately 90% of emissions reductions, but they recommended these popular strategies in different proportions: a strategy that is heavily relied on in one state's overall portfolio may play a negligible role in another state. This suggests that any national policy to limit GHG emissions should encompass these key strategies, but with flexibility to allow states to balance their implementation for the state's unique geographic, economic, and political circumstances. Survey results strongly support the conclusion that decisions regarding GHG reductions are influenced by the mix of actors at the table. Risk perception is associated with job type for all strategies, and physical and/or geographic factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain GHG reduction strategies across states. - Highlights: → This study analyzed climate action plans from 12 states and surveyed the advisory group members. → Ten strategies supply 90% of recommended emission reductions, but states weigh them differently. → Advisory group members perceived different opportunities and risks in the top-ten strategies. → Both geographic and socio-political factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain strategies. → Cost, business practices and consumer behavior were ranked as the top barriers to reducing emissions.

  14. Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions--selecting climate-smart cultivars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenkranz, Maaria; Pugh, Thomas A M; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter; Arneth, Almut

    2015-09-01

    Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate not only via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared with natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land management and plant-breeding strategies, which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions while simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment. PMID:25255900

  15. Aligning corporate greenhouse-gas emissions targets with climate goals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krabbe, Oskar; Linthorst, Giel; Blok, Kornelis; Crijns-Graus, Wina; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Höhne, Niklas; Faria, Pedro; Aden, Nate; Pineda, Alberto Carrillo

    2015-12-01

    Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of clear methods to derive consistent corporate target setting that keeps cumulative corporate GHG emissions within a specific carbon budget (for example, 550-1,300 GtCO2 between 2011 and 2050 for the 2 °C target). Here we propose a method for corporate emissions target setting that derives carbon intensity pathways for companies based on sectoral pathways from existing mitigation scenarios: the Sectoral Decarbonization Approach (SDA). These company targets take activity growth and initial performance into account. Next to target setting on company level, the SDA can be used by companies, policymakers, investors or other stakeholders as a benchmark for tracking corporate climate performance and actions, providing a mechanism for corporate accountability.

  16. Climate-driven fluctuation of a wild bird population over the past half millennium

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naef-Daenzer, B.; Luterbacher, J.; Nuber, M.; Rutishauser, Th.; Winkel, W.

    2009-04-01

    Mechanisms underlying climate-driven changes in ecosystem structure and function are poorly understood because hardly any ecological records start before the recent warming phase. We analyse an exceptional 100-year record of the great tit population (Parus major) and habitat phenology in Switzerland, and model climate-driven population fluctuations since AD 1500. Additional to high plasticity of the system, we find a significant influence of the large-scale atmospheric circulation (North-Atlantic Oscillation) on fitness-relevant life history traits and population dynamics. The multidecadal circulation impact resulted in low fecundity and population minima during the ‘Maunder Minimum' (1650-1720) and the Little Ice Age Type Event I (1810-1850), whereas the warming since 1975 is related with the highest productivity since 1500 and an unprecedented increase of the population.

  17. The Impact of Changing Climate on Ammonia Emissions from Agriculture and the Associated Climate Forcings

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, D. S.; Riddick, S. N.; Hess, P. G. M.

    2015-12-01

    Agriculture is the largest anthropogenic source of ammonia (NH3) on a global scale with major contributions from the application of synthetic fertilizer and manure from livestock. While strict controls are placed on the emissions of many industrial pollutants, NH3 concentrations are expected to increase this century. In addition to future expansion of agricultural activities that could lead to greater NH3 emissions, NH3 emissions are affected by changes in temperature and precipitation. Here we use a newly developed agricultural N pathways model running in a global terrestrial model (Community Land Model v4.0) to estimate future NH3 emissions from manure and synthetic fertilizer application, and the impact of changing climate on these emissions and other N pathways (runoff, denitrification, etc.). We include future increases in the application of manure and synthetic fertilizer that are consistent with a middle-of-the-road projection of population growth and per capita caloric intake. Combined with atmospheric forcing that follows RCP8.5, NH3 emissions increase by about 50% and 90% between years 2010 and 2100 from synthetic fertilizer and manure, respectively. Roughly 25% of this increase can be attributed to the changing climate, mainly increased global temperatures over the 21st century. We show associated changes in ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate aerosol concentrations and radiative forcings, the results of a set of additional simulations using the Community Atmosphere Model v5.0 and an offline radiative transfer scheme. This work suggests that projections of global NH3 concentrations need to take changes in climate into account.

  18. Technology-Driven and Innovative Training for Sustainable Agriculture in The Face of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wishart, D. N.

    2015-12-01

    Innovative training in 'Sustainable Agriculture' for an increasingly STEM-dependent agricultural sector will require a combination of approaches and technologies for global agricultural production to increase while offsetting climate change. Climate change impacts the water resources of nations as normal global weather patterns are altered during El Nino events. Agricultural curricula must incorporate awareness of 'climate change' in order to find novel ways to (1) assure global food security; (2) improve soil productivity and conservation; (3) improve crop yields and irrigation; (4) inexpensively develop site specific principles of crop management based on variable soil and associated hydrological properties; and (5) improve precision farming. In February 2015, Central State University (CSU), Ohio became an 1890 Land-Grant institution vital to the sustainability of Ohio's agricultural sector. Besides agricultural extension, the agriculture curriculum at CSU integrates multidisciplinary courses in science, technology engineering, agriculture, and mathematics (STEAM). The agriculture program could benefit from a technology-driven, interdisciplinary soil science course that promotes climate change education and climate literacy while being offered in both a blended and collaborative learning environment. The course will focus on the dynamics of microscale to mesoscale processes occurring in farming systems, those of which impact climate change or could be impacted by climate change. Elements of this course will include: climate change webinars; soil-climate interactions; carbon cycling; the balance of carbon fluxes between soil storage and atmosphere; microorganisms and soil carbon storage; paleoclimate and soil forming processes; geophysical techniques used in the characterization of soil horizons; impact of climate change on soil fertility; experiments; and demonstrations.

  19. Experimental study of electron impact ionization in field emission-driven microdischarges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Field emission can act as a significant source of primary electrons in direct current microdischarges generated in geometries truly at the microscale (∼1–10 µm). Using field emission as a source of primary electrons, it is possible to produce a stable pre-breakdown Townsend discharge with modestly high current at pressures up to atmospheric. Recent theories for field emission-driven Townsend discharges, or more simply field emission-driven microdischarges, show that the field emission current will be multiplied by electron impact ionization in the electrode gap. In this work, experiments using microfabricated, parallel-plate discharge devices showed that the measured anode current increases exponentially with pressure, consistent with the theory for field emission-driven microdischarges operated in a pre-breakdown regime. Furthermore, extracted average ionization cross-sections on the order of 10−19–10−20 m2 are comparable to those predicted by particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo collision simulations of the same experimental conditions. (paper)

  20. Climate of opinion risks undermining war on emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Analysts in the US are becomingly increasingly vocal about how policies that are designed to combat the effects of climate change risk doing the exact opposite, because they are so heavily in favour of 'renewables' that they are putting increasing pressure on the country's biggest source of zero-emissions power - nuclear. What makes this and reports interesting reading is that the so-called 'German experience' - where nuclear power continues to be gradually phased out for political reasons - is proving a sobering thought for the US. Policies that force nuclear out of the mix of resources with which to combat climate change will prove to be short-sighted and the consequences far reaching. (orig.)

  1. Climate Adaptation is About More Than Climate: Value-Driven Science Delivery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swanston, C.

    2015-12-01

    Efforts to deliver relevant scientific information and tools to diverse stakeholders have dramatically increased in recent years with the intention of promoting climate change adaptation. Much work has been done to understand the barriers to action, but these largely overlook the need to frame the discussion in terms of stakeholder values and co-create innovative solutions that meet their individual needs. A partnership-based effort in the upper Midwest and Northeast called the Climate Change Response Framework (CCRF; www.forestadaptation.org) ensures relevance, breadth, and credibility of its products through stakeholder inclusion at all levels. The fundamental role of the CCRF is to help people meet their land stewardship goals while minimizing climate risk. This represents a subtle but important shift in focus to people and their values, as opposed to climate change and its effects. The CCRF uses a climate planning tool, the Adaptation Workbook (www.adaptationworkbook.org), along with ecosystem vulnerability assessments and a diverse "menu" of adaptation approaches to generate site-specific adaptation actions that meet explicit conservation objectives. These tools are integrated into an Adaptation Planning and Practices workshop that leads organizations through this structured process of designing adaptation tactics for their projects and plans. All of these tools were developed with stakeholders, or in response to their direct and continuing feedback. The CCRF has involved thousands of people and over 100 organizations, published six ecoregional vulnerability assessments with more than 130 authors, and generated more than 125 intentional adaptation demonstrations in real-world land management projects on federal, state, tribal, county, conservancy, and private lands. The CCRF contributes strongly to the USDA Regional Climate Hubs, working on the applied end of the continuum of climate services occupied by providers such as the CSCs, LCCs, RISAs, and RCCs.

  2. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  3. Photoelectron Emission from Metal Surfaces Induced by VUV-emission of Filament Driven Hydrogen Arc Discharge Plasma

    CERN Document Server

    Laulainen, J; Koivisto, H; Komppula, J; Tarvainen, O

    2015-01-01

    Photoelectron emission measurements have been performed using a filament-driven multi-cusp arc discharge volume production H^- ion source (LIISA). It has been found that photoelectron currents obtained with Al, Cu, Mo, Ta and stainless steel (SAE 304) are on the same order of magnitude. The photoelectron currents depend linearly on the discharge power. It is shown experimentally that photoelectron emission is significant only in the short wavelength range of hydrogen spectrum due to the energy dependence of the quantum efficiency. It is estimated from the measured data that the maximum photoelectron flux from plasma chamber walls is on the order of 1 A per kW of discharge power.

  4. Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alternative energy technologies (AETs) have emerged as a solution to the challenge of simultaneously meeting rising electricity demand while reducing carbon emissions. However, as all AETs are responsible for some greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their construction, carbon emission 'Ponzi Schemes' are currently possible, wherein an AET industry expands so quickly that the GHG emissions prevented by a given technology are negated to fabricate the next wave of AET deployment. In an era where there are physical constraints to the GHG emissions the climate can sustain in the short term this may be unacceptable. To provide quantitative solutions to this problem, this paper introduces the concept of dynamic carbon life-cycle analyses, which generate carbon-neutral growth rates. These conceptual tools become increasingly important as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy by reducing fossil fuel combustion. In choosing this method of evaluation it was possible to focus uniquely on reducing carbon emissions to the recommended levels by outlining the most carbon-effective approach to climate change mitigation. The results of using dynamic life-cycle analysis provide policy makers with standardized information that will drive the optimization of electricity generation for effective climate change mitigation.

  5. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon. PMID:26983540

  6. On board emission and fuel consumption measurement campaign on petrol-driven passenger cars

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Vlieger, I.

    Realistic emission and fuel consumption rates of petrol-driven cars were determined by on-the-road experiments in 1995. A validated, in-house developed, on-board measuring system was used. Six three-way catalyst (TWC) cars and one carburetted non-catalyst car were measured. The effects of road type, driving behaviour and cold start on CO, HC and NO x emissions and fuel consumption were analysed. In real traffic situations, emissions for TWC cars were found to be at least 70% lower than for the non-catalyst car. For TWC cars, emissions decreased across the board from city to rural and motorway traffic. Without a catalyst, motorway traffic resulted in the highest NO x emissions. Compared to normal driving, aggressive driving gave emissions which were up to four times higher. Except for NO x, calm driving resulted in lower emissions still. Comparable fuel consumption rates were obtained from normal and calm driving. Those from aggressive driving were higher, by as much as 40% in city traffic. Cold starts resulted in significantly higher CO and HC emission values than hot starts. These differences were less pronounced for NO x. Emissions from TWC cars were higher than generally expected, compared to the European emission limit values (91/441/EEC) and the emission factors used in Flanders and the Netherlands (Klein,1993) for the national emission inventories. Low-emitting cars during the emission test on a chassis dynamometer, as prescribed by the 91/441/EEC directive, did not necessarily give low emissions in real traffic situations.

  7. Online calculation of global marine halocarbon emissions in the chemistry climate model EMAC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lennartz, Sinikka T.; Krysztofiak-Tong, Gisèle; Sinnhuber, Björn-Martin; Marandino, Christa A.; Tegtmeier, Susann; Krüger, Kirstin; Ziska, Franziska; Quack, Birgit

    2015-04-01

    Marine produced trace gases such as dibromomethane (CH2Br2), bromoform (CHBr3) and methyl iodide (CH3I) significantly impact tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry. Marine emissions are the dominant source of halocarbons to the atmosphere, and therefore, it is crucial to represent them accurately in order to model their impact on atmospheric chemistry. Chemistry climate models are a frequently used tool for quantifying the influence of halocarbons on ozone depletion. In these model simulations, marine emissions of halocarbons have mainly been prescribed from established emission climatologies, thus neglecting the interaction with the actual state of the atmosphere in the model. Here, we calculate halocarbon marine emissions for the first time online by coupling the submodel AIRSEA to the chemical climate model EMAC. Our method combines prescribed water concentrations and varying atmospheric concentrations derived from the model instead of using fixed emission climatologies. This method has a number of conceptual and practical advantages, as the modelled emissions can respond consistently to changes in temperature, wind speed, possible sea ice cover and atmospheric concentration in the model. Differences between the climatology-based and the new approach (2-18%) result from consideration of the actual, time-varying state of the atmosphere and the consideration of air-side transfer velocities. Extensive comparison to observations from aircraft, ships and ground stations reveal that interactively computing the air-sea flux from prescribed water concentrations leads to equally or more accurate atmospheric concentrations in the model compared to using constant emission climatologies. The effect of considering the actual state of the atmosphere is largest for gases with concentrations close to equilibrium in the surface ocean, such as CH2Br2. Halocarbons with comparably long atmospheric lifetimes, e.g. CH2Br2, are reflected more accurately in EMAC when compared to time

  8. Estimates of the climate response to aircraft emissions scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sausen, R.; Schumann, U.

    1998-03-01

    A combination of linear responses model is used to estimate the changes in the global means of the carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) concentration, of the surface temperature, and of the seal level due to aviation. Apart from CO{sub 2}, also the forcing by aircraft induced ozone changes is considered. The model is applied for several CO{sub 2} emission scenarios, which are based on reported fuel consumption for the past and IPCC scenarios for the future, and corresponding nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x}) emissions. The aviation CO{sub 2} emissions from past until 1995 enlarged the atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration by 1.4 ppmv (1.7% of the anthropogenic CO{sub 2} increase since 1800). The global mean surface temperature increased by about 0.004 K, and the sea level rose by 0.024 cm until 1995. Under the assumption that present-day aircraft induced ozone changes cause an equilibrium surface warming of 0.05 K, the transient responses amount to 0.03 K in surface temperature and 0.15 cm in sea level in 1995. In a scenario, which assumes a threefold increase in aviation fuel consumption until 2050 and an annual increase rate of 1% thereafter until 2100, the model predicts a CO{sub 2} concentration change of 13 ppmv by 2100, causing temperature increases of 0.01, 0.02, 0.05 K, and sea level increases of 0.06, 0.15, 0.34 cm in the years 2015, 2050, 2100, respectively, due to CO{sub 2} emissions alone. The radiative forcing due to aircraft induced ozone increase causes larger temperature and sea level changes than the aircraft CO{sub 2} forcing. Also, climate reacts more promptly to changes in ozone emissions than to changes in CO{sub 2} emissions from aviation. Finally, even under the assumption of a rather small equilibrium temperature change from aircraft induced ozone (0.01 K for the 1992 NO{sub x} emissions), a proposed new combustor technology which reduces specific NO{sub x} emissions causes a smaller temperature change during the next century than the standard technology does

  9. Monitoring Surface Climate With its Emissivity Derived From Satellite Measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Daniel K.; Larar, Allen M.; Liu, Xu

    2012-01-01

    Satellite thermal infrared (IR) spectral emissivity data have been shown to be significant for atmospheric research and monitoring the Earth fs environment. Long-term and large-scale observations needed for global monitoring and research can be supplied by satellite-based remote sensing. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity data retrieved from the last 5 years of Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements observed from the MetOp-A satellite. Monthly mean surface properties (i.e., skin temperature T(sub s) and emissivity spectra epsilon(sub v) with a spatial resolution of 0.5x0.5-degrees latitude-longitude are produced to monitor seasonal and inter-annual variations. We demonstrate that surface epsilon(sub v) and T(sub s) retrieved with IASI measurements can be used to assist in monitoring surface weather and surface climate change. Surface epsilon(sub v) together with T(sub s) from current and future operational satellites can be utilized as a means of long-term and large-scale monitoring of Earth 's surface weather environment and associated changes.

  10. Evidence for climate-driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ong, Joyce J L; Rountrey, Adam N; Zinke, Jens; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Grierson, Pauline F; O'Donnell, Alison J; Newman, Stephen J; Lough, Janice M; Trougan, Mélissa; Meekan, Mark G

    2016-08-01

    The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long-term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate-driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO-driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Niño-4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Niña years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree-ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation

  11. Tropically-driven climate shifts in southwestern Europe during MIS 19, a low eccentricity interglacial

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sánchez Goñi, M. F.; Rodrigues, T.; Hodell, D. A.; Polanco-Martínez, J. M.; Alonso-García, M.; Hernández-Almeida, I.; Desprat, S.; Ferretti, P.

    2016-08-01

    The relative roles of high- versus low-latitude forcing of millennial-scale climate variability are still not well understood. Here we present terrestrial-marine climate profiles from the southwestern Iberian margin, a region particularly affected by precession, that show millennial climate oscillations related to a nonlinear response to the Earth's precession cycle during Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 19. MIS 19 has been considered the best analogue to our present interglacial from an astronomical point of view due to the reduced eccentricity centred at 785 ka. In our records, seven millennial-scale forest contractions punctuated MIS 19 superimposed to two orbitally-driven Mediterranean forest expansions. In contrast to our present interglacial, we evidence for the first time low latitude-driven 5000-yr cycles of drying and cooling in the western Mediterranean region, along with warmth in the subtropical gyre related to the fourth harmonic of precession. These cycles indicate repeated intensification of North Atlantic meridional moisture transport that along with decrease in boreal summer insolation triggered ice growth and may have contributed to the glacial inception, at ∼774 ka. The freshwater fluxes during MIS 19ab amplified the cooling events in the North Atlantic promoting further cooling and leading to MIS 18 glaciation. The discrepancy between the dominant cyclicity observed during MIS 1, 2500-yr, and that of MIS 19, 5000-yr, challenges the similar duration of the Holocene and MIS 19c interglacials under natural boundary conditions.

  12. Climate-driven sympatry may not lead to foraging competition between congeneric top-predators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, Megan A; Moline, Mark A; Fraser, William R; Patterson-Fraser, Donna L; Oliver, Matthew J

    2016-01-01

    Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. On fine scales, we tested for foraging competition between these species during the chick-rearing period by comparing their foraging behaviors with the distribution of their prey, Antarctic krill. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguins, and found that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. In overlapping Adélie and gentoo penguin foraging areas, four gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion of Adélie penguins by gentoo penguins. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is one of the major drivers of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories. PMID:26732496

  13. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-10-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4 % of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6 % (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1 % (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4 % (CTA) and 15.9 % (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and

  14. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  15. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C. [ed.; Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.; Estiarte, M.; Penuelas, J.; Llorens Guash, L.; Williams, D.; Gordon, C.; Pugh, B.; Roda, F.; Gundersen, P.; Gorissen, A.

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3 deg. C increase in temperature with more vigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought periods in the coming 100 years. The consequence of such climatic changes for the terrestrial ecosystems are largely unknown. In order to improve our understanding of the ecosystem response to climate change and thereby to improve the basis for the international negotiations and political decisions to avoid or minimise climate change and its effects, a European research project CLIMOOR has been initiated. The project is a cross European research project involving 6 research groups from Denmark, the Netherlands, UK and Spain and is funded by EU and the participating institutions. The project investigates the potential effects of warming and drought on heath and moorland ecosystems at four European sites. The ecosystems are manipulated at field scale by reducing the heat loss at night by IR-reflective curtains and by removing the precipitation during a 2 month period in the summer. The effects of these manipulations on the plants and the soil are studied. This report describes the technique used to apply the climate change at field scale and presents some preliminary results after the first growing season. EU and the participating institutions fund CLIMOOR. (au)

  16. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    OpenAIRE

    Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0....

  17. Light emission from Ag(111) driven by inelastic tunneling in the field emission regime.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Blanco, Jesús; Fölsch, Stefan

    2015-07-01

    We study the light emission from a Ag(111) surface when the bias voltage on a scanning tunneling microscope (STM) junction is ramped into the field emission regime. Above the vacuum level, scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STS) shows a series of well defined resonances associated with the image states of the surface, which are Stark shifted due to the electric field provided by the STM tip. We present photon-energy resolved measurements that unambiguously show that the mechanism for light emission is the radiative decay of surface localized plasmons excited by the electrons that tunnel inelastically into the Stark shifted image states. Our work illustrates the effect of the tip radius both in the STS spectrum and the light emission maps by repeating the experiment with different tips. PMID:26045477

  18. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari S Myksvoll

    Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  19. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2015-03-10

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

  20. Optical field emission from resonant gold nanorods driven by femtosecond mid-infrared pulses

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We demonstrate strong-field photoelectron emission from gold nanorods driven by femtosecond mid-infrared optical pulses. The maximum photoelectron yield is reached at the localized surface plasmon resonance, indicating that the photoemission is governed by the resonantly-enhanced optical near-field. The wavelength- and field-dependent photoemission yield allows for a noninvasive determination of local field enhancements, and we obtain intensity enhancement factors close to 1300, in good agreement with finite-difference time domain computations

  1. Optical field emission from resonant gold nanorods driven by femtosecond mid-infrared pulses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kusa, F. [Department of Applied Physics, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 2-24-16 Nakacho, Koganei Tokyo 184-8588 (Japan); Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Echternkamp, K. E.; Herink, G.; Ropers, C. [4th Physical Institute – Solids and Nanostructures, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen (Germany); Ashihara, S., E-mail: ashihara@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)

    2015-07-15

    We demonstrate strong-field photoelectron emission from gold nanorods driven by femtosecond mid-infrared optical pulses. The maximum photoelectron yield is reached at the localized surface plasmon resonance, indicating that the photoemission is governed by the resonantly-enhanced optical near-field. The wavelength- and field-dependent photoemission yield allows for a noninvasive determination of local field enhancements, and we obtain intensity enhancement factors close to 1300, in good agreement with finite-difference time domain computations.

  2. Regional Influence of Aerosol Emissions from Wildfires Driven by Combustion Efficiency: Insights from the BBOP Campaign.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Collier, Sonya; Zhou, Shan; Onasch, Timothy B; Jaffe, Daniel A; Kleinman, Lawrence; Sedlacek, Arthur J; Briggs, Nicole L; Hee, Jonathan; Fortner, Edward; Shilling, John E; Worsnop, Douglas; Yokelson, Robert J; Parworth, Caroline; Ge, Xinlei; Xu, Jianzhong; Butterfield, Zachary; Chand, Duli; Dubey, Manvendra K; Pekour, Mikhail S; Springston, Stephen; Zhang, Qi

    2016-08-16

    Wildfires are important contributors to atmospheric aerosols and a large source of emissions that impact regional air quality and global climate. In this study, the regional and nearfield influences of wildfire emissions on ambient aerosol concentration and chemical properties in the Pacific Northwest region of the United States were studied using real-time measurements from a fixed ground site located in Central Oregon at the Mt. Bachelor Observatory (∼2700 m a.s.l.) as well as near their sources using an aircraft. The regional characteristics of biomass burning aerosols were found to depend strongly on the modified combustion efficiency (MCE), an index of the combustion processes of a fire. Organic aerosol emissions had negative correlations with MCE, whereas the oxidation state of organic aerosol increased with MCE and plume aging. The relationships between the aerosol properties and MCE were consistent between fresh emissions (∼1 h old) and emissions sampled after atmospheric transport (6-45 h), suggesting that biomass burning organic aerosol concentration and chemical properties were strongly influenced by combustion processes at the source and conserved to a significant extent during regional transport. These results suggest that MCE can be a useful metric for describing aerosol properties of wildfire emissions and their impacts on regional air quality and global climate. PMID:27398804

  3. Evaluation of Regional Climate Simulations over the Great Lakes Region Driven by Three Global Data Sets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhong, Shiyuan (Sharon); Li, Xiuping; Bian, Xindi; Heilman, Warren E.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Gustafson, William I.

    2012-06-27

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990–1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-surface temperatures derived from the NCEP Global Reanalysis and output from the CCSM3 and GISS general circulation models (GCMs). The simulation results are compared to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR). The three RCM simulations appeared to be more accurate in winter and least accurate in summer, and more accurate aloft than near the surface. The reanalysis-constrained simulation adequately captured the spatial distribution and seasonal cycle of the observed surface-air temperature and precipitation, but it produced consistently across all seasons a cold bias that is generally larger over the lakes than over land and a wet bias due to an overestimation of nonconvective precipitation. The simulated seasonal cycle of moisture–flux convergence over the region was in very good agreement with NARR. The two GCM-driven runs adequately simulated the spatial and seasonal variation of temperature, but overestimated cold-season precipitation and underestimated summer precipitation, reversing the observed annual precipitation cycle. The GISS-driven run failed to simulate the prevailing low-level flow and moisture convergence patterns. All three RCM simulations successfully captured the impact of the Great Lakes on the region's climate, especially on winter precipitation, a significant improvement over coarse-resolution GCM simulations over the region.

  4. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  5. Climate driven egg and hatchling mortality threatens survival of eastern Pacific leatherback turtles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santidrián Tomillo, Pilar; Saba, Vincent S; Blanco, Gabriela S; Stock, Charles A; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

    2012-01-01

    Egg-burying reptiles need relatively stable temperature and humidity in the substrate surrounding their eggs for successful development and hatchling emergence. Here we show that egg and hatchling mortality of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in northwest Costa Rica were affected by climatic variability (precipitation and air temperature) driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier and warmer conditions associated with El Niño increased egg and hatchling mortality. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warming and drying in Central America and other regions of the World, under the SRES A2 development scenario. Using projections from an ensemble of global climate models contributed to the IPCC report, we project that egg and hatchling survival will rapidly decline in the region over the next 100 years by ∼50-60%, due to warming and drying in northwestern Costa Rica, threatening the survival of leatherback turtles. Warming and drying trends may also threaten the survival of sea turtles in other areas affected by similar climate changes. PMID:22649544

  6. Climate protection and emission trading in the agriculture; Klimaschutz und Emissionshandel in der Landwirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luenenbuerger, Benjamin

    2013-01-15

    The percentage of the agriculture in the greenhouse-gas emissions in Germany amounts 7.1% in the year 2010. Despite its importance, climate protection instruments in the area of the German agriculture are still not developed. There are hardly special regulatory, informational or market-based instruments for the climate protection in the agriculture. The question arises whether the emission trading can be a suitable instrument for climate protection in the agriculture. Thus, the opportunities of the emission trading in the agriculture are investigated. Moreover, alternative and additional instruments of climate protection are considered with respect to the agriculture.

  7. Sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrification significantly reduces N2O emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Weiming; Zhao, Qing; Lu, Hui; Ding, Zhi; Meng, Liao; Chen, Guang-Hao

    2016-03-01

    The Sulfate reduction-Autotrophic denitrification-Nitrification Integrated (SANI) process build on anaerobic carbon conversion through biological sulfate reduction and autotrophic denitrification by using the sulfide byproduct from the previous reaction. This study confirmed extra decreases in N2O emissions from the sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrification by investigating N2O reduction, accumulation, and emission in the presence of different sulfide/nitrate (S/N) mass ratios at pH 7 in a long-term laboratory-scale granular sludge autotrophic denitrification reactor. The N2O reduction rate was linearly proportional to the sulfide concentration, which confirmed that no sulfide inhibition of N2O reductase occurred. At S/N = 5.0 g-S/g-N, this rate resulted by sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrifying granular sludge (average granule size = 701 μm) was 27.7 mg-N/g-VSS/h (i.e., 2 and 4 times greater than those at 2.5 and 0.8 g-S/g-N, respectively). Sulfide actually stimulates rather than inhibits N2O reduction no matter what granule size of sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrifying sludge engaged. The accumulations of N2O, nitrite and free nitrous acid (FNA) with average granule size 701 μm of sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrifying granular sludge engaged at S/N = 5.0 g-S/g-N were 4.7%, 11.4% and 4.2% relative to those at 3.0 g-S/g-N, respectively. The accumulation of FNA can inhibit N2O reduction and increase N2O accumulation during sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrification. In addition, the N2O gas emission level from the reactor significantly increased from 14.1 ± 0.5 ppmv (0.002% of the N load) to 3707.4 ± 36.7 ppmv (0.405% of the N load) as the S/N mass ratio in the influent decreased from 2.1 to 1.4 g-S/g-N over the course of the 120-day continuous monitoring period. Sulfide-driven autotrophic denitrification may significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from biological nutrient removal when sulfur conversion processes are applied. PMID

  8. Etude Climat no. 33 'Joint Implementation: a frontier mechanism within the borders of an emissions cap'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: Based on specific projects rather than economy-wide emissions reductions, and driven by the demand from the installations covered by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), Joint Implementation (JI) turned out to be a largely private sector mechanism. Besides attracting private investors in GHG abatement projects, JI creates an opportunity for countries to exploit the arbitrage price spread between different carbon offsets: Emission Reduction Units (ERU), the credits issued from JI projects, trade with a premium of up to 50% over Assigned Amount Units (AAU), the country-level carbon allowances. Some countries, like for instance Ukraine, quickly realized the added value of JI and boosted its development, while in others, like Russia, JI lacked political support and efficient frameworks took time to be established. According to the ERU supply forecasting model developed by CDC Climat Research, Annex I countries are expected to generate up to 356 million ERUs for the first Kyoto commitment period. Around 80% of these credits shall originate from Russia and Ukraine, and up to 70 million shall be generated from countries participating in the EU ETS. Within the EU, JI has been used as a 'frontier mechanism': JI projects mostly explored abatement opportunities not covered by the scheme and, as highlighted by the case of nitrous oxide emissions from the production of nitric acid, played an important role in identifying abatement technologies and providing information to extend the scope of the EU ETS. One of the most complex issues related to JI is the practice of additionality. The cases of France and Ukraine demonstrate that the stakes associated with additionality may differ depending on a country's compliance position. In Ukraine, additionality was not perceived as a significant economic risk due to a

  9. Multiple evolutionary origins of Australian soil-burrowing cockroaches driven by climate change in the Neogene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lo, Nathan; Tong, K Jun; Rose, Harley A; Ho, Simon Y W; Beninati, Tiziana; Low, David L T; Matsumoto, Tadao; Maekawa, Kiyoto

    2016-02-24

    Parallel evolution is the independent appearance of similar derived phenotypes from similar ancestral forms. It is of key importance in the debate over whether evolution is stochastic and unpredictable, or subject to constraints that limit available phenotypic options. Nevertheless, its occurrence has rarely been demonstrated above the species level. Climate change on the Australian landmass over the last approximately 20 Myr has provided conditions conducive to parallel evolution, as taxa at the edges of shrinking mesic habitats adapted to drier biomes. Here, we investigate the phylogeny and evolution of Australian soil-burrowing and wood-feeding blaberid cockroaches. Soil burrowers (subfamily Geoscapheinae) are found in relatively dry sclerophyllous and scrubland habits, whereas wood feeders (subfamily Panesthiinae) are found in rainforest and wet sclerophyll. We sequenced and analysed mitochondrial and nuclear markers from 142 specimens, and estimated the evolutionary time scale of the two subfamilies. We found evidence for the parallel evolution of soil-burrowing taxa from wood-feeding ancestors on up to nine occasions. These transitions appear to have been driven by periods of aridification during the Miocene and Pliocene across eastern Australia. Our results provide an illuminating example of climate-driven parallel evolution among species. PMID:26888035

  10. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P.C.D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, M.C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

  11. Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs)

    OpenAIRE

    Wajeeha Malik; Hajra Shahid; Rabeea Zafar; Zaheer Uddin; Zafar Wazir; Zubair Anwar; Jabar Zaman Khan Khattak; Syed Shahid Ali

    2012-01-01

    The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to ...

  12. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Glenn Althor; Watson, James E. M.; Fuller, Richard A.

    2016-01-01

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth’s atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries’ GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we...

  13. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979–2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J. -F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979–2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation

  14. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J.-F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-05-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual

  15. Arctic Vegetation under Climate Change – Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions and Leaf Anatomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schollert, Michelle

    common arctic plant species, illustrating the great importance of vegetation composition for determining ecosystem BVOC emissions. Additionally, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses in common arctic plant species to effects of climate change: warming, shading and snow addition. Against...... treatment effects on BVOC emissions. Furthermore, the anatomy of arctic plants seems to respond differently to warming than species at lower latitudes. The results in this thesis demonstrate the complexity of the effects of climate change on BVOC emissions and leaf anatomy of arctic plant species...... emissions from the arctic region are assumed to be low, but data from the region is lacking. BVOC emissions are furthermore expected to change drastically due to the rapidly proceeding climate change in the Arctic, which can provide a feedback to climate warming of unknown direction and magnitude. BVOC...

  16. Very high energy emission of Crab-like pulsars driven by the Cherenkov drift radiation

    CERN Document Server

    Osmanov, Z

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we study the generation of very high energy (VHE) emission in Crab-like pulsars driven by means of the feedback of Cherenkov drift waves on distribution of magnetospheric electrons. We have found that the unstable Cherenkov drift modes lead to the quasi-linear diffusion (QLD), keeping the pitch angles from vanishing, which in turn, maintains the synchrotron mechanism. Considering the Crab-like pulsars it has been shown that the growth rate of the Cherenkov drift instability (ChDI) is quite high, indicating high efficiency of the process. Analyzing the mechanism for the typical parameters we have found that the Cherenkov drift emission from the extreme UV to hard $X$-rays is strongly correlated with the VHE synchrotron emission in the GeV band.

  17. Very high energy emission of Crab-like pulsars driven by the Cherenkov drift radiation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osmanov, Z.

    2016-02-01

    In this paper, we study the generation of very high energy (VHE) emission in Crab-like pulsars driven by means of the feedback of Cherenkov drift waves on distribution of magnetospheric electrons. We have found that the unstable Cherenkov drift modes lead to the quasi-linear diffusion, keeping the pitch angles from vanishing, which in turn, maintains the synchrotron mechanism. Considering the Crab-like pulsars it has been shown that the growth rate of the Cherenkov drift instability is quite high, indicating high efficiency of the process. Analysing the mechanism for the typical parameters we have found that the Cherenkov drift emission from the extreme UV to hard X-rays is strongly correlated with the VHE synchrotron emission in the GeV band.

  18. Influence of the anode processes on discharges driven by thermionic emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The influence of electron reflection and secondary electron emission due to electron impact from the anode on discharges driven by thermionic emission is studied by the self-consistent one-dimensional particle-in-cell Monte Carlo collisions model. Two regimes are considered. In the first regime, the two-stream instability is excited and large anode sheath potential is obtained. It is found that in this regime, the reflected electrons play a significant role. In the second regime, the instability is not excited and the anode sheath potential is small. The dominant anode process in this regime is the secondary electron emission. It is shown that in both regimes, the anode processes significantly influence the plasma parameters

  19. Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

    2013-09-01

    Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our

  20. Data-Driven Synthesis for Investigating Food Systems Resilience to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magliocca, N. R.; Hart, D.; Hondula, K. L.; Munoz, I.; Shelley, M.; Smorul, M.

    2014-12-01

    The production, supply, and distribution of our food involves a complex set of interactions between farmers, rural communities, governments, and global commodity markets that link important issues such as environmental quality, agricultural science and technology, health and nutrition, rural livelihoods, and social institutions and equality - all of which will be affected by climate change. The production of actionable science is thus urgently needed to inform and prepare the public for the consequences of climate change for local and global food systems. Access to data that spans multiple sectors/domains and spatial and temporal scales is key to beginning to tackle such complex issues. As part of the White House's Climate Data Initiative, the USDA and the National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) are launching a new collaboration to catalyze data-driven research to enhance food systems resilience to climate change. To support this collaboration, SESYNC is developing a new "Data to Motivate Synthesis" program designed to engage early career scholars in a highly interactive and dynamic process of real-time data discovery, analysis, and visualization to catalyze new research questions and analyses that would not have otherwise been possible and/or apparent. This program will be supported by an integrated, spatially-enabled cyberinfrastructure that enables the management, intersection, and analysis of large heterogeneous datasets relevant to food systems resilience to climate change. Our approach is to create a series of geospatial abstraction data structures and visualization services that can be used to accelerate analysis and visualization across various socio-economic and environmental datasets (e.g., reconcile census data with remote sensing raster datasets). We describe the application of this approach with a pilot workshop of socio-environmental scholars that will lay the groundwork for the larger SESYNC-USDA collaboration. We discuss the

  1. Thermal emissions and climate change: Cooler options for future energy technology

    OpenAIRE

    Cowern, Nick E. B.; Ahn, Chihak

    2008-01-01

    Global warming arises from 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the climate system and arising within it. Humanity introduces temperature forcing through greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture, and thermal emissions from fuel burning. Up to now climate projections, neglecting thermal emissions, typically foresee maximum forcing around the year 2050, followed by a decline. In this paper we show that, if humanity's energy use grows at 1%/year, slower ...

  2. Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

    OpenAIRE

    Sudakov, I. A.; S. A. Vakulenko

    2012-01-01

    The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedback coefficient conn...

  3. Mathematical modelling of positive carbon-climate feedback: permafrost lake methane emission case

    OpenAIRE

    Sudakov, I. A.; S. A. Vakulenko

    2012-01-01

    The permafrost methane emission problem is in the focus of attention of different climate models. We present new approach to the permafrost methane emission modeling. The tundra permafrost lakes is potential source of methane emission. Typically, tundra landscape contains a number of small lakes and warming leads to lake extension. We are making use of this process by the nonlinear theory of phase transitions. We find that climate catastrophe possibility depends on a feedbac...

  4. Environmental problems connected to emissions of ozone-depleting and climate gases

    OpenAIRE

    Isaksen, Ivar S.A.

    1995-01-01

    -Carbon dioxide and methane emissions important for the global climate impact. -Less impact through energy efficiency (CO2) and better control of CH4-emssions. -Rapid increase in emission of pollutants. -Rapid increase in regional pollution. -Future increase gives regional impact on climate. -The regional impact can be reduced by removing pollutant like SO2, NO2, CO and hydrocarbons from the emissions. Conclusions China and several other countries in the region are chara...

  5. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO2 emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4, NOx, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO2, dust CHx, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible.

  6. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender [Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina (RS); Kabashi, Gazmend [Faculty of Electric Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina (RS); Najdovski, Dimitrij [X3DATA, Novi trg 6, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Zidansek, Aleksander [Jozef Stefan Institute and Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Slaus, Ivo [R. Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka 54, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, NO{sub x}, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO{sub 2}, dust CH{sub x}, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible. (author)

  7. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlgren, Johan P; Bengtsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-04-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models. The population projection models accurately captured observed fluctuations in population size. Our analyses suggested the population was intrinsically regulated but with annual fluctuations in response to variation in weather. Simulations showed that implicitly assuming variation in demographic rates to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses to environmental changes. PMID:27220206

  8. Projected effect of 2000–2050 changes in climate and emissions on aerosol levels in China and associated transboundary transport

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Jiang

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the 2000–2050 changes in concentrations of aerosols in China and the associated transboundary aerosol transport by using the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem driven by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS general circulation model (GCM 3 at 4° × 5° resolution. Future changes in climate and emissions projected by the IPCC A1B scenario are imposed separately and together through sensitivity simulations. Accounting for sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC aerosols, concentrations of individual aerosol species change by −2.3 to +1.7 μg m−3 and PM2.5 levels are projected to change by about 10–20% in eastern China as a result of 2000–2050 change in climate alone. With future changes in anthropogenic emissions alone, concentrations of sulfate, BC, and OC are simulated to decrease because of reductions in emissions, and those of nitrate are predicted to increase because of higher NOx emissions combined with decreases in sulfate. The net result is a reduction of seasonal mean PM2.5 concentrations in eastern China by 2–9.5 μg m−3 (or 10–30% over 2000–2050. It is noted that current emission inventories for BC and OC over China are found to be inadequate at present. Transboundary fluxes of different aerosol species show different sensitivities to future changes in climate and emissions. The annual outflow of PM2.5 from eastern China to the western Pacific is estimated to change by −6.0%, −1.5%, and −9.0% over 2000–2050 owing to climate change alone, changes in emissions alone, and changes in both climate and emissions, respectively. The fluxes of nitrate and ammonium aerosols from Europe and Central Asia into western China increase over 2000–2050 by changes in emissions, leading to a 15% increase in annual inflow of PM2.5 to western China with future changes in both emissions and climate. Fluxes of BC and OC from South Asia to China in spring contribute to a large

  9. The implications of China’s investment-driven economy on its energy consumption and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • The energy implications of China’s investment-driven (ID) economy are analyzed. • An expenditure-approach-based framework is applied to define the ID energy consumption. • An input–output model is built to identify the volume of China’s ID energy consumption. • Insights are gained for determining the saving potentials of China’s ID energy consumption. - Abstract: In this paper, we aim to fill the research gap by analyzing the relationship between China’s domestic investment and energy consumption, as well as related carbon emissions. First, we use an expenditure-approach-based framework to qualitatively examine the effects of China’s domestic investment on its energy consumption. Based on this framework, we define and differentiate the investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions from that which is driven by other economic activities. Second, we establish an allocation model to quantify China’s investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results reveal that in 2007, China’s domestic investment contributed one third of both its energy consumption and carbon emissions. Further results show that a majority of this investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions, namely nine tenths of the total, is attributable to the construction and manufacturing sectors. Finally, we use the construction sector as a case to discuss how to determine the energy-saving and emission-reduction potential of improving investment-driven energy consumption practices

  10. Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO2, NOx, CH4, VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH4. While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO2, contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NOx and SO2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

  11. Microwave emission from an AXIAL-Virtual Cathode Oscillator driven by a compact pulsed power source

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, R.; Sharma, S. K.; Banerjee, P.; Deb, P.; Prabaharan, T.; Das, R.; Kdas, B.; Adhikary, B.; Verma, R.; Shyam, A.

    2012-11-01

    For the generation of microwaves, Electron beam devices operating in vacuum are most widely used. For pulsed and high power microwave generation, Virtual cathode oscillators (VIRCATORs) are said to be simple in operation and construction. They are generally driven by a pulsed power source which gives high input powers to the Vircator connected as load. Vircator, depending upon its efficiency, converts the electrical input power to the microwave power. We are presenting the results of an axial Vircator operating in 2×10-4 mbar vacuum and is driven by a compact pulsed power source. The energy source and pulse compression is realized in very user friendly approach to run the system. The radiating system presently runs at relatively low powers but has the scope of reaching to high power by a logical improvement. A study of effect of collapsing diode impedance, of the vacuum field emission diode of the Vircator, on the microwave emission is presented in the paper. We are also presenting the microwave emission measurement conducted in the given system. Effect of vacuum is also studied to the extent of present experimental limits.

  12. Microwave emission from an AXIAL-Virtual Cathode Oscillator driven by a compact pulsed power source

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    For the generation of microwaves, Electron beam devices operating in vacuum are most widely used. For pulsed and high power microwave generation, Virtual cathode oscillators (VIRCATORs) are said to be simple in operation and construction. They are generally driven by a pulsed power source which gives high input powers to the Vircator connected as load. Vircator, depending upon its efficiency, converts the electrical input power to the microwave power. We are presenting the results of an axial Vircator operating in 2×10−4 mbar vacuum and is driven by a compact pulsed power source. The energy source and pulse compression is realized in very user friendly approach to run the system. The radiating system presently runs at relatively low powers but has the scope of reaching to high power by a logical improvement. A study of effect of collapsing diode impedance, of the vacuum field emission diode of the Vircator, on the microwave emission is presented in the paper. We are also presenting the microwave emission measurement conducted in the given system. Effect of vacuum is also studied to the extent of present experimental limits.

  13. Climate-driven habitat size determines the latitudinal diversity gradient in temporary ponds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneitel, Jamie M

    2016-04-01

    The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) has been one of the most documented patterns in ecology, typically showing decreasing species diversity with increasing latitude. Studies of these patterns also used different spatial scales and dispersal traits to better understand the underpinning ecological factors. Seasonal freshwater ecosystems are less studied and may exhibit different patterns because they are more sensitive to climatic variation, which result in an inundation-desiccation cycle. In California, precipitation increases and temperature decreases with increasing latitude and thus the LDG pattern may be associated with this climatic gradient. Using collected data and United States Fish and Wildlife Service reports across seven degrees of latitude, analysis of California vernal pool invertebrate community (total richness and richness of passive and active dispersers) was conducted using correlations (Spearman rank and partial). Alpha diversity (total and passive dispersers) increased and beta diversity (passive dispersers) decreased with increasing latitude. Vernal pool surface area was correlated with active disperser alpha and passive disperser beta diversity. This suggests that climate-driven habitat size influences alpha and beta diversity patterns depending on dispersal ability. Active dispersers and predators exhibited higher beta diversity than passive dispersers and prey, respectively. Species composition differed among counties and some of these differences were correlated with pool depth and temperature. These results suggest that seasonal habitats will have diversity patterns strongly associated with local scale characteristics (habitat size and hydroperiod) determined by climate variation along the latitudinal gradient. Understanding these diversity patterns along the gradient will also contribute to management and restoration of these ecosystems with high endemism and diversity. PMID:27220212

  14. Field emission driven direct current argon discharges and electrical breakdown mechanism across micron scale gaps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matejčik, Štefan; Radjenović, Branislav; Klas, Matej; Radmilović-Radjenović, Marija

    2015-11-01

    In this paper results of the experimental and theoretical studies of the field emission driven direct current argon microdischarges for the gaps between 1 μm and 100 μm are presented and discussed. The breakdown voltage curves and Volt-Ampere characteristics proved to be a fertile basis providing better understanding of the breakdown phenomena in microgaps. Based on the measured breakdown voltage curves, the effective yields have been estimated confirming that the secondary electron emission due to high electric field generated in microgaps depends primarily on the electric field leading directly to the violation of the Paschen's law. Experimental data are supported by the theoretical predictions that suggest departure from the scaling law and a flattening of the Paschen curves at higher pressures confirming that Townsend phenomenology breaks down when field emission becomes the key mechanism leading to the breakdown. Field emission of electrons from the cathode, the space charge effects in the breakdown and distinction between the Fowler-Nordheim field emission and the space charge limited current density are also analyzed. Images and Volt-Ampere characteristics recorded at the electrode gap size of 20 μm indicate the existence of a discharge region similar to arc at the pressure of around 200 Torr has been observed. Contribution to the Topical Issue "Recent Breakthroughs in Microplasma Science and Technology", edited by Kurt Becker, Jose Lopez, David Staack, Klaus-Dieter Weltmann and Wei Dong Zhu.

  15. Data-driven dissection of emission-line regions in Seyfert galaxies

    CERN Document Server

    Villarroel, Beatriz

    2016-01-01

    Indirectly resolving the line-emitting gas regions in distant Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) requires both high-resolution photometry and spectroscopy (i.e. through reverberation mapping). Emission in AGN originates on widely different scales; the broad-line region (BLR) has a typical radius less than a few parsec, the narrow-line region (NLR) extends out to hundreds of parsecs. But emission also appears on large scales from heated nebulae in the host galaxies (tenths of kpc). We propose a novel, data-driven method based on correlations between emission-line fluxes to identify which of the emission lines are produced in the same kind of emission-line regions. We test the method on Seyfert galaxies from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 (DR7) and Galaxy Zoo project. We demonstrate the usefulness of the method on Seyfert-1s and Seyfert-2 objects, showing similar narrow-line regions (NLRs). Preliminary results from comparing Seyfert-2s in spiral and elliptical galaxy hosts suggest that the presenc...

  16. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

    OpenAIRE

    Mario Liebergesell; Björn Reu; Ulrike Stahl; Martin Freiberg; Erik Welk; Jens Kattge; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Josep Peñuelas; Christian Wirth

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 trait...

  17. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

    OpenAIRE

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environment...

  18. Charge-exchange-driven X-ray emission from highly ionized plasma jets

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rosmej, F.B. [Universite de Provence et CNRS UMR 6633, Centre de St Jerome, 13 - Marseille (France); Lisitsa, V.S. [Russian Research Center Kurchatov, Moscow (Russian Federation); Schott, R.; Dalimier, E. [Paris-6 Univ., 75 - Paris (France); Schott, R.; Dalimier, E. [Ecole Polytechnique, LULI, 91 - Palaiseau (France); Riley, D.; Delserieys, A. [Queens Univ., Belfast (United Kingdom); Renner, O.; Krousky, E. [Institute of Physics, Prague (Czech Republic)

    2006-12-15

    The interaction of highly ionized laser-produced plasma jets with gases has been studied with X-ray microscopic methods. Simultaneous high spectral and 2-dimensional spatial resolution provided a detailed topological structure of the counter-propagating plasma and discovered a gas pressure-dependent X-ray emission structure inside the jets of H-like and He-like aluminum ions. At larger distances from the target, anomalous high (3 orders of magnitude) intensities of Li-like intercombination transitions from double excited states have been identified. Charge-exchange-driven cascading in autoionizing states is proposed to explain the experimental findings. (authors)

  19. Holocene ITCZ and ENSO-driven climate variability from the Panama isthmus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urrego, D. H.; Aronson, R. B.; Bush, M. B.

    2009-12-01

    , and the effects of trade-wind-driven moisture exchanges between the Atlantic and Pacific oceans on the position of the ITCZ. A finely laminated sediment core from La Yeguada represents one of the most detailed Holocene climatic archives for the Isthmus. The pollen and charcoal records from La Yeguada were previously published (5) but detailed paleolimnological analyses were not conducted. Results from high-resolution x-ray fluorescence analyses of conspicuous changes in lamination patterns appear to correlate with mid-Holocene changes in ITCZ and ENSO systems recorded in the Cariaco Basin (2) and the eastern Pacific (3). A third climatic forcing associated with changes in upwelling in the Panama Bight was also observed. We conclude that mid-Holocene changes in ITCZ and ENSO systems had significant effects in both terrestrial and marine communities, as evidenced in the pollen record of La Yeguada and unpublished coral reef records from the Panama Bay. References: (1) Hodell, DA et al (1991) Nature, 352, 790-793; (2) Haug, GH et al (2001) Science, 293, 1304-1308; (3) Moy, CM et al (2002) Nature 420: 162-165; (4) Riedinger, MA et al (2002) Journal of Paleolimnology 27: 1-7; (5) Bush, MB et al (1990) Journal of Vegetation Science 1:105-118.

  20. International Experiences and Frameworks to Support Country-Driven Low-Emissions Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benioff, R.; Cochran, J.; Cox, S.

    2012-08-01

    Countries can use low-emission development strategies (LEDS) to advance sustainable development, promote private-sector growth, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes a framework -- or support infrastructure -- to enable the efficient exchange of LEDS-related knowledge and technical assistance. Under the proposed framework, countries share LEDS-related resources via coordinating forums, 'knowledge platforms,' and networks of experts and investors. The virtual 'knowledge platforms' foster learning by allowing countries to communicate with each other and share technical reports, data, and analysis tools in support of LEDS development. Investing in all elements of the framework in an integrated fashion increases the efficacy of support for country-driven LEDS.

  1. Global mismatch between greenhouse gas emissions and the burden of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Althor, Glenn; Watson, James E. M.; Fuller, Richard A.

    2016-02-01

    Countries export much of the harm created by their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions because the Earth’s atmosphere intermixes globally. Yet, the extent to which this leads to inequity between GHG emitters and those impacted by the resulting climate change depends on the distribution of climate vulnerability. Here, we determine empirically the relationship between countries’ GHG emissions and their vulnerability to negative effects of climate change. In line with the results of other studies, we find an enormous global inequality where 20 of the 36 highest emitting countries are among the least vulnerable to negative impacts of future climate change. Conversely, 11 of the 17 countries with low or moderate GHG emissions, are acutely vulnerable to negative impacts of climate change. In 2010, only 28 (16%) countries had an equitable balance between emissions and vulnerability. Moreover, future emissions scenarios show that this inequality will significantly worsen by 2030. Many countries are manifestly free riders causing others to bear a climate change burden, which acts as a disincentive for them to mitigate their emissions. It is time that this persistent and worsening climate inequity is resolved, and for the largest emitting countries to act on their commitment of common but differentiated responsibilities.

  2. Methane emissions from western Siberian wetlands: heterogeneity and sensitivity to climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Bohn, T. J; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Sathulur, K.; Bowling, L. C.; Podest, E.; K. C. McDonald; Friborg, T.

    2007-01-01

    The prediction of methane emissions from high-latitude wetlands is important given concerns about their sensitivity to a warming climate. As a basis for the prediction of wetland methane emissions at regional scales, we coupled the variable infiltration capacity macroscale hydrological model (VIC) with the biosphere–energy-transfer–hydrology terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY) and a wetland methane emissions model to make large-scale estimates of methane emissions as a function of soil temper...

  3. Assessing the Risk of Ecosystem Disruption in Europe using a Dynamic Vegetation Model driven by CMIP5 Regional Climatic Projections from EURO-CORDEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dury, Marie; François, Louis; Hambuckers, Alain; Henrot, Alexandra; Jacquemin, Ingrid; Munhoven, Guy

    2016-04-01

    While the combination of warmer and drier mean climatic conditions can have severe impacts on ecosystems, extreme events like droughts or heat waves that break the gradual climate change can have more long-term consequences on ecosystem composition, functioning and carbon storage. Hence, it is essential to assess the changes in climate variability and the changes in frequency of extreme events projected for the future. Ecosystems could not be in a condition to adapt to these new conditions and might be disrupted. Here, the process-based dynamic vegetation model CARAIB DVM was used to evaluate and analyze how future climate and extreme events will affect European ecosystems. To quantify the uncertainties in the climatic projections and in their potential impacts on ecosystems, the vegetation model was driven with the outputs of different regional climatic models (RCMs), nested in CMIP5 GCM projections for the EURO-CORDEX project: ALADIN53 (Météo-France/CNRM), RACMO22E (KNMI), RCA4 (SMHI) and REMO2009 (MPI-CSC) RCMs. These climatic projections are at a high spatial resolution (0.11-degree, ˜12 km). CARAIB simulations were performed across Europe over the historical period 1951-2005 and the future period 2006-2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. We simulated a set of 99 individual species (47 herbs, 12 shrubs and 40 trees) representing the major European ecosystem flora. First, we analyzed the climatic variability simulated by the climatic models over the historical period and compared it with the observed climatic variability. None of these climatic models can reproduce accurately the present natural climatic variability. Then, to assess the risk of ecosystem disruption in the future and to identify the vulnerable areas in Europe, we created an index combining several CARAIB outputs: runoff, mean NPP, soil turnover, burned area, appearance and disappearance of species. We evaluated the severity of change projected for these variables (period 2070

  4. Climatically driven loss of calcium in steppe soil as a sink for atmospheric carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lapenis, A.G.; Lawrence, G.B.; Bailey, S.W.; Aparin, B.F.; Shiklomanov, A.I.; Speranskaya, N.A.; Torn, M.S.; Calef, M.

    2008-01-01

    During the last several thousand years the semi-arid, cold climate of the Russian steppe formed highly fertile soils rich in organic carbon and calcium (classified as Chernozems in the Russian system). Analysis of archived soil samples collected in Kemannaya Steppe Preserve in 1920, 1947, 1970, and fresh samples collected in 1998 indicated that the native steppe Chernozems, however, lost 17-28 kg m-2 of calcium in the form of carbonates in 1970-1998. Here we demonstrate that the loss of calcium was caused by fundamental shift in the steppe hydrologic balance. Previously unleached soils where precipitation was less than potential evapotranspiration are now being leached due to increased precipitation and, possibly, due to decreased actual evapotranspiration. Because this region receives low levels of acidic deposition, the dissolution of carbonates involves the consumption of atmospheric CO2. Our estimates indicate that this climatically driven terrestrial sink of atmospheric CO2 is ???2.1-7.4 g C m-2 a-1. In addition to the net sink of atmospheric carbon, leaching of pedogenic carbonates significantly amplified seasonal amplitude of CO2 exchange between atmosphere and steppe soil. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  5. Effects of climate events driven hydrodynamics on dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Cheng-Wei; Kao, Shuh-Ji

    2008-04-15

    The seasonal concentrations of dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir were studied over a period of one year. The study site was the Feitsui Reservoir in Taiwan. It is a dam-constructed reservoir with a surface area of 10.24 km(2) and a mean depth of 39.6 m, with a maximum depth of 113.5 m near the dam. It was found that certain weather and climate events, such as typhoons in summer and autumn, as well as cold fronts in winter, can deliver oxygen-rich water, and consequently have strong impacts on the dissolved oxygen level. The typhoon turbidity currents and winter density currents played important roles in supplying oxygen to the middle and bottom water, respectively. The whole process can be understood by the hydrodynamics driven by weather and climate events. This work provides the primary results of dissolved oxygen in a subtropical deep reservoir, and the knowledge is useful in understanding water quality in subtropical regions. PMID:18243280

  6. Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, James [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States); Aldrich, Robb [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States)

    2015-08-19

    Traditionally, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) have been used more often in warmer climates; however, some new ASHPs are gaining ground in colder areas. These systems operate at subzero (Fahrenheit) temperatures and many do not include backup electric resistance elements. There are still uncertainties, however, about capacity and efficiency in cold weather. Also, questions such as “how cold is too cold?” do not have clear answers. These uncertainties could lead to skepticism among homeowners; poor energy savings estimates; suboptimal system selection by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning contractors; and inconsistent energy modeling. In an effort to better understand and characterize the heating performance of these units in cold climates, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), monitored seven inverter-driven, ductless ASHPs across the Northeast. Operating data were collected for three Mitsubishi FE18 units, three Mitsubishi FE12 units, and one Fujitsu 15RLS2 unit. The intent of this research was to assess heat output, electricity consumption, and coefficients of performance (COPs) at various temperatures and load conditions. This assessment was accomplished with long- and short-term tests that measured power consumption; supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures; and airflow through the indoor fan coil.

  7. EU Action against Climate Change. EU emissions trading. An open scheme promoting global innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The European Union is committed to global efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from human activities that threaten to cause serious disruption to the world's climate. Building on the innovative mechanisms set up under the Kyoto Protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and international emissions trading - the EU has developed the largest company-level scheme for trading in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), making it the world leader in this emerging market. The emissions trading scheme started in the 25 EU Member States on 1 January 2005

  8. Variations in mid-ocean ridge CO2 emissions driven by glacial cycles

    CERN Document Server

    Burley, Jonathan M A

    2015-01-01

    The geological record shows links between glacial cycles and volcanic productivity, both subaerially and at mid-ocean ridges. Sea-level-driven pressure changes could also affect chemical properties of mid-ocean ridge volcanism. We consider how changing sea-level could alter the \\cotwo{} emissions rate from mid-ocean ridges, on both the segment and global scale. We develop a simplified transport model for a highly incompatible element through a homogenous mantle; variations in the melt concentration the emission rate of the element are created by changes in the depth of first silicate melting. The model predicts an average global mid-ocean ridge \\cotwo{} emissions-rate of $53$~Mt/yr, in line with other estimates. We show that falling sea level would cause an increase in ridge \\cotwo{} emissions with a lag of about $100$~kyrs after the causative sea level change. The lag and amplitude of the response are sensitive to mantle permeability and plate spreading rate. For a reconstructed sea-level time series of the ...

  9. Probing the gaseous halo of galaxies through non-thermal emission from AGN-driven outflows

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Xiawei

    2015-01-01

    Feedback from outflows driven by active galactic nuclei (AGN) can affect the distribution and properties of the gaseous halos of galaxies. We study the hydrodynamics and non-thermal emission from the forward outflow shock produced by an AGN-driven outflow. We consider a few possible profiles for the halo gas density, self-consistently constrained by the halo mass, redshift and the disk baryonic concentration of the galaxy. We show that the outflow velocity levels off at $\\sim 10^3\\,\\rm km\\, s^{-1}$ within the scale of the galaxy disk. Typically, the outflow can reach the virial radius around the time when the AGN shuts off. We show that the outflows are energy-driven, consistently with observations. The outflow shock lights up the halos of massive galaxies across a broad wavelength range. For Milky Way (MW) mass halos, radio observations by The Jansky Very Large Array (JVLA) and The Square Kilometer Array (SKA) and infrared/optical observations by The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Hubble Space Telesco...

  10. θ Car: X-ray Emission from Low Density Radiation-Driven Winds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doyle (Mizusawa), Trisha; Petit, Veronique; Held Cohen, David; Fullerton, Alexander W.; Gagne, Marc; Leutenegger, Maurice A.; Li, Zequn; Owocki, Stanley P.; Sundqvist, Jon; Wade, Gregg

    2016-01-01

    We present Chandra X-ray grating spectroscopy (and IUE spectroscopy) of the B0.2 V star, θ Carina. θ Car is in a critical transition region between the earliest B stars and the latest O stars, where the density of the wind is observed to decrease more than theoretically expected. In general, X-ray emission in this low-density wind regime should be less prominent, but observations have shown that there is a higher than expected production of X-ray emission from the winds of these stars; this severely challenges predictions of radiatively driven wind theory. We measure the f/i ratio, widths, and velocities of several Helium-like lines in the X-ray spectrum. The f/i ratio is a diagnostic of the radial location of the X-ray emitting plasma, which is sensitive to the specific transition of each He-like ion. We use θ Car to study the radiatively-driven mass-loss of early B-type stars.

  11. Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

    2016-04-01

    Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

  12. Wildfires in a warmer climate: Emission fluxes, emission heights, and black carbon concentrations in 2090-2099

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veira, A.; Lasslop, G.; Kloster, S.

    2016-04-01

    Global warming is expected to considerably impact wildfire activity and aerosol emission release in the future. Due to their complexity, the future interactions between climate change, wildfire activity, emission release, and atmospheric aerosol processes are still uncertain. Here we use the process-based fire model SPITFIRE within the global vegetation model JSBACH to simulate wildfire activity for present-day climate conditions and future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The modeled fire emission fluxes and fire radiative power serve as input for the aerosol-climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, which has been extended by a semiempirical plume height parametrization. Our results indicate a general increase in extratropical and a decrease in tropical wildfire activity at the end of the 21st century. Changes in emission fluxes are most pronounced for the strongest warming scenario RCP8.5 (+49% in the extratropics, -37% in the tropics). Tropospheric black carbon (BC) concentrations are similarly affected by changes in emission fluxes and changes in climate conditions with regional variations of up to -50% to +100%. In the Northern Hemispheric extratropics, we attribute a mean increase in aerosol optical thickness of +0.031±0.002 to changes in wildfire emissions. Due to the compensating effects of fire intensification and more stable atmospheric conditions, global mean emission heights change by at most 0.3 km with only minor influence on BC long-range transport. The changes in wildfire emission fluxes for the RCP8.5 scenario, however, may largely compensate the projected reduction in anthropogenic BC emissions by the end of the 21st century.

  13. Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

    2015-01-01

    In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants

  14. Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) the best tool to combat climate change?

    OpenAIRE

    Kebede, Tsegaw

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Helsinki Metropolia University of Applied Sciences Degree program: Bachelor of Business Administration: International Business and Logistics Dissertation title: Is the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) the best tool to combat climate change? Author: Tsegaw Kebede The objective and purpose of this research is to discuss and answer whether European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the best tool to combat climate change and reduce industr...

  15. Climate Effects of Emission Standards: The Case for Gasoline and Diesel Cars

    OpenAIRE

    Tanaka, Katsumasa; Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan; Rypdal, Kristin

    2012-01-01

    Passenger transport affects climate through various mechanisms involving both long-lived and short-lived climate forcers. Because diesel cars generally emit less CO2 than gasoline cars, CO2 emission taxes for vehicle registrations and fuels enhance the consumer preference for diesel cars over gasoline cars. However, with the non-CO2 components, which have been changed and will be changed under the previous and upcoming vehicle emission standards, what does the shift from gasoline to diesel ca...

  16. Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climate and carbon cycle change on CO2 emission pathways using a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. We design five idealized pathways (including an overshoot scenario for cumulative emissions), each of which levels off to final cumulative emissions of 2000 GtC. The cumulative emissions of the overshoot scenario reach 4000 GtC temporarily, subsequently reducing to 2000 GtC as a result of continuous negative emissions. Although we find that responses of climatic variables and the carbon cycle are largely independent of emission pathways, a much weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected in the overshoot scenario despite cessation of emissions. This weakened AMOC is enhanced by rapid warming in the Arctic region due to considerable temporary elevation of atmospheric CO2 concentration and induces the decline of surface air temperature and decrease of precipitation over the northern Atlantic and Europe region. Moreover, the weakened AMOC reduces CO2 uptake by the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. However, the weakened AMOC contributes little to the global carbon cycle. In conclusion, although climate variations have been found to be dependent on emission pathways, the global carbon cycle is relatively independent of these emission pathways, at least superficially. (letter)

  17. Interaction of the EU emissions Trading Directive with climate policy instrument in the Netherlands. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This policy brief presents an overview of the implications of the proposed EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for some selected energy and climate policy instruments in the Netherlands. It summarises the results of research that has been conducted by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) as part of the EU-funded project Interaction in EU Climate Policy

  18. Regional emission metrics for short-lived climate forcers from multiple models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aamaas, Borgar; Berntsen, Terje K.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Shine, Keith P.; Bellouin, Nicolas

    2016-06-01

    For short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF) values calculated in four different (chemical-transport or coupled chemistry-climate) models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May-October) and winter (November-April) for emissions in Europe and East Asia, as well as from the global shipping sector and global emissions. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosol precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3), as well as ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOCs), which also influence aerosols to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated using global warming potential (GWP) and global temperature change potential (GTP), based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramping period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies.For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for emissions in Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values for emissions in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOCs. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of an illustrative mitigation policy package is

  19. Regional estimates of the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leduc, Martin; Matthews, H. Damon; de Elía, Ramón

    2016-05-01

    The Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) measures the response of global temperatures to cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the TCRE is a global quantity, climate impacts manifest predominantly in response to local climate changes. Here we quantify the link between CO2 emissions and regional temperature change, showing that regional temperatures also respond approximately linearly to cumulative CO2 emissions. Using an ensemble of twelve Earth system models, we present a novel application of pattern scaling to define the regional pattern of temperature change per emission of CO2. Ensemble mean regional TCRE values range from less than 1 °C per TtC for some ocean regions, to more than 5 °C per TtC in the Arctic, with a pattern of higher values over land and at high northern latitudes. We find also that high-latitude ocean regions deviate more strongly from linearity as compared to land and lower-latitude oceans. This suggests that ice-albedo and ocean circulation feedbacks are important contributors to the overall negative deviation from linearity of the global temperature response to high levels of cumulative emissions. The strong linearity of the regional climate response over most land regions provides a robust way to quantitatively link anthropogenic CO2 emissions to local-scale climate impacts.

  20. Emission of 1,3-butadiene from petrol-driven motor vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ye, Y.; Galbally, I. E.; Weeks, I. A.

    This study reports the measurement of 1,3-butadiene emissions from 30 petrol-driven vehicles from the Australian car fleet using the Australian Design Rule 37/00 vehicle test procedure. Six of the cars tested were not equipped with catalytic converters and used leaded petrol as fuel. The remaining 24 cars were fitted with catalytic converters and used unleaded petrol. 1,3-Butadiene in exhaust samples was found to degrade rapidly in SUMMA treated stainless steel canisters and the degradation followed first-order kinetics. The rate coefficient of the decay can be represented by a linear dependence on the concentration of nitrogen oxides in the exhaust ( r2 = 0.79, n = 43), and the gas-phase reaction of NO 2 and 1,3-butadiene may have a major role in this loss. The 1,3-butadiene concentrations used to estimate vehicle emissions were corrected for this loss using the decay rate constant either observed from replicate analyses or from the NO x concentrations in the samples. The measurements showed that 1,3-butadiene was emitted at a rate of 20.7 ± 9.2 mg km -1 from 6 non-catalyst vehicles. There was considerable scatter in the observations from catalyst equipped vehicles and we infer that this was due to the malfunction of the emission control devices on some vehicles. The 19 vehicles that appeared to have functioning catalyst emission control devices had an average emission rate of 2.1 ± 1.5 mg km -1. These emission rates are consistent with atmospheric observations and are much higher than those reported previously. We calculate that more than 90% of the 1,3-butadiene in engine exhaust comes from the common alkane and aromatic constituents of the fuel. A comparison of emissions in the different phases of the drive cycle indicates that current emission controls remove more than 90% of the 1,3-butadiene from the initial exhaust mixture.

  1. Scaling law for direct current field emission-driven microscale gas breakdown

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The effects of field emission on direct current breakdown in microscale gaps filled with an ambient neutral gas are studied numerically and analytically. Fundamental numerical experiments using the particle-in-cell/Monte Carlo collisions method are used to systematically quantify microscale ionization and space-charge enhancement of field emission. The numerical experiments are then used to validate a scaling law for the modified Paschen curve that bridges field emission-driven breakdown with the macroscale Paschen law. Analytical expressions are derived for the increase in cathode electric field, total steady state current density, and the ion-enhancement coefficient including a new breakdown criterion. It also includes the effect of all key parameters such as pressure, operating gas, and field-enhancement factor providing a better predictive capability than existing microscale breakdown models. The field-enhancement factor is shown to be the most sensitive parameter with its increase leading to a significant drop in the threshold breakdown electric field and also to a gradual merging with the Paschen law. The proposed scaling law is also shown to agree well with two independent sets of experimental data for microscale breakdown in air. The ability to accurately describe not just the breakdown voltage but the entire pre-breakdown process for given operating conditions makes the proposed model a suitable candidate for the design and analysis of electrostatic microscale devices.

  2. On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

    2015-01-01

    Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

  3. The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

    OpenAIRE

    D. Shindell; G. Faluvegi

    2010-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollut...

  4. The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

    OpenAIRE

    D. Shindell; G. Faluvegi

    2010-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2

  5. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Liebergesell

    Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

  6. Thermal emissions and climate change: a nuclear problem and a photovoltaic solution?

    CERN Document Server

    Cowern, Nick E B

    2008-01-01

    Global warming is a consequence of 'temperature forcing', a net imbalance between energy fluxes entering and leaving the global climate system and energy generation within this system. Humanity introduces positive forcings through greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, agriculture, and increasingly thermal emissions - heat released as a result of energy generation and use. Up to now, climate change projections have neglected thermal emissions, and typically assume a peak in forcing due to GHG emissions around the middle of this century [1,2]. Here we show that, if humanity's future energy use grows at just 1% per year, slower than in recent history, and if thermal emissions are not controlled through changes in technology, the total forcing due to all emissions will not peak and decline significantly as currently predicted, but after a slight dip will continue to rise. This problem can be combated by geoengineering [3] and mitigated by renewable energy sources that minimize waste heat. Such approaches could be combi...

  7. Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

    2012-01-01

    Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

  8. Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

    2009-04-01

    Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

  9. Impacts of Climate Change Induced Vegetation Responses on BVOC Emissions from Subarctic Heath Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valolahti, Hanna Maritta

    The role of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) affecting Earths’ climate system is one of the greatest uncertainties when modelling the global climate change. BVOCs presence in the atmosphere can have both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms when they involve atmospheric...... the understanding of the controls of BVOC emissions from subarctic ecosystems under climate change by studying the responses to long-term manipulations from leaf level to small ecosystem scale. Leaf-level studies showed different anatomical responses for warming and shading manipulations between studied species......, but no significant effects on BVOC emissions on plant individual level were found. The lack of changes in BVOC emissions after longterm exposure could be at least partially explained by long term-acclimation, which is supported by the observed anatomy responses. Whereas warming was not found to alter the BVOC...

  10. On the efficiency gains of emissions trading when climate deals are non-cooperative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Holtsmark, Bjart

    2011-07-15

    This paper studies, in a numerical environment, climate treaties with emissions trading when national quotas result from strategic individual choice. We find that the larger the number of parties to the deal, the smaller are the emissions reductions and the lower the welfare. If insisting on stability with respect to participation, climate treaties involve few parties and yield practically no emissions reductions. While these results contrast with some optimistic studies, our numerical example conforms established results if modelling the problem in the more traditional sense. (Author)

  11. National climate policy implications of mitigating embodied energy system emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Scott, K.; Daly, H.; Barrett, J; Strachan, N.

    2016-01-01

    Rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions require an almost complete transformation of the energy system to low carbon energy sources. Little consideration has been given to the potential adverse carbon consequences associated with the technology transition. This paper considers the embodied emissions that will occur to replace the UK’s fossil fuel-reliant energy supply with low carbon sources. The analysis generates a number of representative scenarios where emissions embodied in energy systems...

  12. Model estimates of climate controls on pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-01-01

    Climate factors including soil temperature and moisture, incident solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are important environmental controls on methane (CH4) emissions from northern wetlands. We investigated the spatiotemporal distributions of the influence of these factors on northern high-latitude wetland CH4 emissions using an enhanced version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. We simulated CH4 emissions from wetlands a...

  13. Legal regulation of aircraft engine emissions in the age of climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Liu, J

    2011-01-01

    Although the contribution of international civil aviation to climate change seems small (with a global share of just 3.5 percent of emissions of CO2), the projected growth in air traffic means that it is highly significant. There is thus an urgent need to explore legal regulations for limiting and/or reducing the adverse impacts of aircraft emissions on the environment. This thesis examines the progress which has been made on international aviation emissions abatement and provi...

  14. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

  15. Potential impact of climate change on marine dimethyl sulfide emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Bopp, Laurent; Aumont, Oliver; Belviso, Sauveur; MONFRAY, PATRICK

    2011-01-01

    Dimethyl sulfide (DMS) is a biogenic compound produced in sea-surface water and outgased to the atmosphere. Once in the atmosphere, DMS is a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei in the unpolluted marine atmosphere. It has been postulated that climate may be partly modulated by variations in DMS production through a DMS-cloud condensation nuclei-albedo feedback. We present here a modelled estimation of the response of DMS sea-water concentrations and DMS fluxes to climate change, fo...

  16. Climate change-driven treeline advances in the Urals alter soil microbial communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Djukic, Ika; Moiseev, Pavel; Hagedorn, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Climatic warming may affect microbial communities and their functions either directly through increased temperatures or indirectly by changes in vegetation. Treelines are temperature-limited vegetation boundaries from tundra to forests. In unmanaged regions of the Ural mountains, there is evidence that the forest-tundra ecotone has shifted upward in response to climate warming during the 20th century. Little is known about the effects of the treeline advances on the microbial structure and function and hence they feedbacks on the belowground carbon and nitrogen cycling In our study, we aimed to estimate how ongoing upward shifts of the treeline ecotone might affect soil biodiversity and its function and hence soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) dynamics in the Southern and Polar Ural mountains. Along altitudinal gradients reaching from the tundra to forests, we determined the soil microbial community composition (using Phospholipid Fatty Acids method) and quantified the activity of several extracellular enzymes involved in the C and nutrient cycling. In addition, we measured C pools in biomass and soils and quantified C and N mineralization. The results for the top soils, both in South Urals and in the Polar Ural, indicate a close link between climate change driven vegetation changes and soil microbial communities. The observed changes in microbial structure are induced through the resulting more favorable conditions than due to a shift in litter quality. The activities of chitinase were significantly higher under trees than under herbaceous plants, while activities of cellulase and protease declined with altitude from the tundra to the closed forest. In contrast to enzymatic activities, soil carbon stocks did not change significantly with altitude very likely as a result of a balancing out of increased C inputs from vegetation by an enhanced C output through mineralization with forest expansion. The accelerated organic matter turnover in the forest than in the tundra

  17. The effectiveness of net negative carbon dioxide emissions in reversing anthropogenic climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere (also referred to as negative emissions) has been proposed as a means to restore the climate system to a desirable state, should the impacts of climate change become ‘dangerous’. Here we explore whether negative emissions are indeed effective in reversing climate change on human timescales, given the potentially counteracting effect of natural carbon sinks and the inertia of the climate system. We designed a range of CO2 emission scenarios, which follow a gradual transition to a zero-carbon energy system and entail implementation of various amounts of net-negative emissions at technologically plausible rates. These scenarios are used to force an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity. Results suggest that while it is possible to revert to a desired level of warming (e.g. 2 °C above pre-industrial) after different levels of overshoot, thermosteric sea level rise is not reversible for at least several centuries, even under assumption of large amounts of negative CO2 emissions. During the net-negative emission phase, artificial CO2 removal is opposed by CO2 outgassing from natural carbon sinks, with the efficiency of CO2 removal—here defined as the drop in atmospheric CO2 per unit negative emission—decreasing with the total amount of negative emissions. (letter)

  18. Synergy in the Dutch climate and NOx emission policy. A cost evaluation up to 2010

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The acquisition of relative cheap CO2 emission rights from foreign countries may mean missing synergistic side-effects on the domestic emissions of air-polluting substances. Extra costs will be necessary if the emission ceilings for NOx, SO2, and NMVOS are to be realised. These factors have, to date, not been taken into account in the Dutch national climate policy. This report documents the implications of the above-mentioned conclusion; however, only for the medium-term up to the beginning of 2010 and only for the NOx emissions. The analysis documented here shows that the savings from supplementary domestic climate measures for the NOx emission policy are limited; furthermore, these savings only slightly weigh up against the rapidly rising costs of the climate policy. Additional domestic climate measures remain relatively expensive, even when the synergetic side-effects on NOx emissions are taken into account. Except for an extra domestic reduction of about 2 megatonnes, it will be profitable to realise the reduction of greenhouse gases abroad and to reduce the NOx emissions using technical measures geared specifically to NOx. The synergetic effect was underestimated in this study because the potential synergetic effects for air-polluting substances other than NOx such as SO2, NMVOS, particulates and soot, were not considered and also because for the greenhouse gases only CO2 was considered

  19. Uncertainties in global aerosols and climate effects due to biofuel emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. K. Kodros

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Aerosol emissions from biofuel combustion impact both health and climate; however, while reducing emissions through improvements to combustion technologies will improve health, the net effect on climate is largely unconstrained. In this study, we examine sensitivities in global aerosol concentration, direct radiative climate effect, and cloud-albedo aerosol indirect climate effect to uncertainties in biofuel emission factors, optical mixing-state, and model nucleation and background SOA. We use the Goddard Earth Observing System global chemical-transport model (GEOS-Chem with TwO Moment Aerosol Sectional (TOMAS microphysics. The emission factors include: amount, composition, size and hygroscopicity, as well as optical mixing-state properties. We also evaluate emissions from domestic coal use, which is not biofuel but is also frequently emitted from homes. We estimate the direct radiative effect assuming different mixing states (internal, core-shell, and external with and without absorptive organic aerosol (brown carbon. We find the global-mean direct radiative effect of biofuel emissions ranges from −0.02 to +0.06 W m−2 across all simulation/mixing state combinations with regional effects in source regions ranging from −0.2 to +1.2 W m−2. The global-mean cloud-albedo aerosol indirect effect ranges from +0.01 to −0.02 W m−2 with regional effects in source regions ranging from −1.0 to −0.05 W m−2. The direct radiative effect is strongly dependent on uncertainties in emissions mass, composition, emissions aerosol size distributions and assumed optical mixing state, while the indirect effect is dependent on the emissions mass, emissions aerosol size distribution and the choice of model nucleation and secondary organic aerosol schemes. The sign and magnitude of these effects have a strong regional dependence. We conclude that the climate effects of biofuel aerosols are largely unconstrained, and the overall sign of the aerosol

  20. Establishing Global Source-Receptor Relationships for Carbonaceous Aerosol to Characterize Sensitivity of its Climate Forcing to Emission Uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, H.; Rasch, P. J.; Easter, R. C.; Singh, B.; Qian, Y.; Ma, P.; Zhang, R.

    2013-12-01

    Carbonaceous aerosol (CA) has been identified as an important but very uncertain forcing agent in the Earth's climate system. It has cascading radiative, microphysical and dynamical effects across the different scales in the atmosphere. Light-absorbing CA (e.g., black carbon (BC) and brown carbon) deposited on snow, sea ice and glaciers can accelerate their melting, which can induce more profound impact through positive feedback mechanisms, having important implications for climate change and fresh water availability at the global and regional scale. Many factors can affect the amount and impacts of CA in a specific region such as the Arctic, among which the global distribution of emissions is of primary importance. There are many uncertainties in global CA emissions, which are changing over time. To better understand the response of climate to these uncertainties and to potential future CA emission changes, it is useful to characterize the global source-receptor relationships and attribute CA loading and radiative forcing to various regional and sectoral CA sources. Observational evidence has clearly demonstrated the occurrence of intercontinental long-range transport of aerosols and to some extent the characteristic transport pathways. However, the observational approach alone cannot provide quantitative information on global source-receptor relationships. We have recently improved the treatment of aerosol transport and wet removal processes in the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) and introduced a brute-force aerosol source tagging technique in which aerosol particles emitted from many independent source regions and sectors are tagged and explicitly tracked. We run the CAM5 model in an 'offline' mode (i.e., driven by reanalysis data) so the transport processes are less likely to be subject to model biases in meteorology and circulation patterns. This modeling tool is used to quantify the characteristics (e.g., burden, surface deposition rate, lifetime

  1. Climate, CO2 and human population impacts on global wildfire emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, W.; Jiang, L.; Arneth, A.

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are by far the largest contributor to global biomass burning and constitute a large global source of atmospheric traces gases and aerosols. Such emissions have a considerable impact on air quality and constitute a major health hazard. Biomass burning also influences the radiative balance of the atmosphere and is thus not only of societal, but also of significant scientific interest. There is a common perception that climate change will lead to an increase in emissions as hot and dry weather events that promote wildfire will become more common. However, even though a few studies have found that the inclusion of CO2 fertilisation of photosynthesis and changes in human population patterns will tend to somewhat lower predictions of future wildfire emissions, no such study has included full ensemble ranges of both climate predictions and population projections, including the effect of different degrees of urbanisation.Here, we present a series of 124 simulations with the LPJ-GUESS-SIMFIRE global dynamic vegetation-wildfire model, including a semi-empirical formulation for the prediction of burned area based on fire weather, fuel continuity and human population density. The simulations use Climate Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) climate predictions from eight Earth system models. These were combined with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and five scenarios of future human population density based on the series of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to assess the sensitivity of emissions to the effect of climate, CO2 and humans. In addition, two alternative parameterisations of the semi-empirical burned-area model were applied. Contrary to previous work, we find no clear future trend of global wildfire emissions for the moderate emissions and climate change scenario based on the RCP 4.5. Only historical population change introduces a decline by around 15 % since 1900. Future emissions could either increase for low population growth and

  2. 6.1 Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In Austria, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) have increased by about 10 % between 1990 and 2001. This means that already in 2001 the emissions reached the level projected with current measures for 2010. Thus Austria is far from complying with the 13 % reduction required under the Kyoto Protocol, meaning that GHG emissions will have to be reduce annually by 1.4 million tons of CO2-equivalents to fulfill its protocol obligation. It is shown that 2001 GHG emissions had increased by 9.6 % since the base year 1990, the main reason for this increase is the growing use of fossil fuels and the resulting increase in CO2 emissions. The highest growth rates can be observed in the transport sector by almost half (+ 49 %). Basically, greenhouse gas emission trends depend on a number of factors, about two thirds of them are caused by energy production, so the most important parameters affecting GHG are the trends of energy consumption, the energy mix and the following factors: population growth, economic growth, outdoor temperature and the resulting heating requirements, improvement of energy efficiency, the proportion of renewable energy sources such as electricity generation in hydroelectric power stations (which influences the need for supplementary power production in thermal power plants), the mix of fossil fuels, for example in caloric power plants (natural gas combustion produces about 40 % less CO2 per energy unit than coal combustion), the structure and price effects of energy market liberalization, which influence the use of various fuels in electricity production and the import of electricity, world market prices for energy, structural changes in the economy and in the behavior of consumers. Changes in important driving forces and in GHG emissions, sector emissions trends and Austrian, European and global emissions projections are provided. (nevyjel)

  3. An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

  4. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, P.; Andrew, R. M.; Rogelj, J.; Peters, G. P.; Canadell, J. G.; Knutti, R.; Luderer, G.; Raupach, M. R.; Schaeffer, M.; van Vuuren, D. P.; Le Quéré, C.

    2014-10-01

    Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 °C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.

  5. The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate, accounting for 80% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents trends in world carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide, based on the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [IEA, 2006a. CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2004. International Energy Agency, Paris, France]. Analyzing the drivers of CO2 emissions, the paper considers regions, types of fuel, sectors, and socio-economic indicators. The paper then examines the growing body of climate change mitigation policies and measures, both multinational and federal. Policies discussed include the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, and the potential measures to be implemented in 2012 and beyond. CO2 emissions of recent years have grown at the highest rates ever recorded, an observed trend incompatible with stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and avoiding long-term climate change. Within this aggregate upward trend, a comparison of emissions sources proves dynamic: while industrialized countries have so far dominated historical emissions, rapid growth in energy demand of developing economies, led by China, may soon spur their absolute emissions beyond those of industrialized countries. To provide context for the drivers of CO2 emissions, the paper examines fuel sources, from coal to biofuels, and fuel use in the production of heat and electricity, in transport, in industrial production and in households. The sectoral analysis illustrates the primacy, in terms of emissions growth and absolute emissions, of two sectors: electricity and heat generation, and transport. A discussion of several socio-economic emissions drivers complements the paper's analysis of mitigation mechanisms. As illustrated, emissions per capita and emissions per unit of economic production, as measured in gross domestic product (GDP), vary widely between regions

  6. The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

    2010-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate

  7. Model estimates of climate controls on pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    X. Chen

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Climate factors including soil temperature and moisture, incident solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are important environmental controls on methane (CH4 emissions from northern wetlands. We investigated the spatio-temporal distributions of the influence of these factors on northern high latitude wetland CH4 emissions using an enhanced version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface model. We simulated CH4 emissions from wetlands across the pan-Arctic domain over the period 1948–2006, yielding annual average emissions of 35.1 ± 6.7 Tg CH4 yr−1 for the period 1997–2006. We characterized historical sensitivities to air temperature, precipitation, incident long- and short-wave radiation, and atmospheric [CO2] as a function of average summer air temperature and precipitation. Emissions from relatively warm and dry wetlands in the southern (permafrost-free portion of the domain were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with air temperature, while emissions from wetter and colder wetlands further north (permafrost were positively correlated with air temperature. Over the entire period 1948–2006, our reconstructed CH4 emissions increased by 20%, over 90% of which can be attributed to climate change. An increasing trend in summer air temperature explained the majority of the climate-related variance. We estimated future emissions in response to 21st century warming as predicted by CMIP5 model projections to result in end of century CH4 emissions 42% higher than our reconstructed 1997–2006 emissions, accompanied by the northward migration of warmer- and drier-than optimal conditions for CH4 emissions, implying a reduced role for temperature in driving future increases in emissions.

  8. Climate change and N2O emissions from South West England grasslands: A modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abalos, Diego; Cardenas, Laura M.; Wu, Lianhai

    2016-05-01

    Unravelling the impacts of climate change on agriculture becomes increasingly important, as the rates and magnitude of its effects are accelerating. Current estimates of the consequences of climate change on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions remain largely uncertain; there is a need for more consistent and comprehensive assessments of this impact. In this study we explored the implications of two IPCC climate change projections (high and medium emissions scenarios) on N2O emissions from South West England grasslands for the time slices of a baseline, the 2020s, the 2050s and the 2080s, employing a process-based model (SPACSYS). The model was initially calibrated and validated using datasets collected from three grassland sites of the region. Statistical analysis showed that simulated results had no significant total error or bias compared to measured values. We found a consistent increase in N2O emissions of up to 94% under future climate change scenarios compared to those under the baseline, and warming rather than precipitation variability was the overriding factor controlling the N2O rise. Modelling fertilizer forms showed that replacing ammonium-nitrate fertilizers with urea or slurry significantly reduced N2O emissions (c. 30%). Our study highlights the urgent necessity to adopt viable N2O mitigation measures now in order to avoid higher emissions in the future.

  9. Multivariate data-driven modelling and pattern recognition for damage detection and identification for acoustic emission and acousto-ultrasonics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Torres-Arredondo, M.A.; Tibaduiza, D.-A.; McGugan, Malcolm; Toftegaard, Helmuth Langmaack; Borum, Kaj Kvisgaard; Mujica, L.E.; Rodellar, J.; Fritzen, C.-P.

    2013-01-01

    structural health monitoring (SHM) systems based on ultrasonic guided waves with focus on the acoustic emission and acousto-ultrasonics techniques. The use of a guided wave based approach is driven by the fact that these waves are able to propagate over relatively long distances, and interact sensitively and...

  10. The California Climate Action Registry: Development of methodologies for calculating greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Marnay, Chris; Sathaye, Jayant; Muritshaw, Scott; Fisher, Diane; Phadke, Amol; Franco, Guido

    2002-08-01

    The California Climate Action Registry, which will begin operation in Fall 2002, is a voluntary registry for California businesses and organizations to record annual greenhouse gas emissions. Reporting of emissions in the Registry by a participant involves documentation of both ''direct'' emissions from sources that are under the entity's control and ''indirect'' emissions controlled by others. Electricity generated by an off-site power source is considered to be an indirect emission and must be included in the entity's report. Published electricity emissions factors for the State of California vary considerably due to differences in whether utility-owned out-of-state generation, non-utility generation, and electricity imports from other states are included. This paper describes the development of three methods for estimating electricity emissions factors for calculating the combined net carbon dioxide emissions from all generating facilities that provide electricity to Californians. We find that use of a statewide average electricity emissions factor could drastically under- or over-estimate an entity's emissions due to the differences in generating resources among the utility service areas and seasonal variations. In addition, differentiating between marginal and average emissions is essential to accurately estimate the carbon dioxide savings from reducing electricity use. Results of this work will be taken into consideration by the Registry when finalizing its guidance for use of electricity emissions factors in calculating an entity's greenhouse gas emissions.

  11. Reducing The Risk Of Abrupt Climate Change: Emission Corridors Preserving The Thermohaline Circulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.

    Paleo-reconstructions have shown that large and abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the last ice-age cycles. This evidence, supplemented by insights into the complex and nonlinear nature of the climate system, gives raise to the concern that anthropogenic forcing may trigger such events in the future. A prominent example for such a potential climatic shift is the collapse of the North Atlantic thermohaline circu- lation (THC), which would cause a major cooling of the northern North Atlantic and north-western Europe and considerable regional sea level rise, with possibly severe consequences on, e.g., fisheries, agriculture and ecosystems. In this paper we present emission corridors for the 21st century preserving the THC. Emission corridors embrace the range of future emissions beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. They are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach. We investigate the sensitivity of the emission corridors to the main uncertain parame- ters (climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivities as well as emissions of non CO_2 greenhouse gases). Results show a high dependence of the size of the emis- sion corridors on hydrological and climate sensitivities. For the best-guess values of both parameters we find that the emission corridors are wider than the range spanned by the SRES emissions scenarios. Thus, no immediate mitigation seems necessary in order to preserve the THC. For high but still realistic values of the sensitivities, however, even the low SRES emissions scenarios transgress the corridor boundaries. These findings imply that under 'business as usual' a non-negligible risk of either a THC collapse or an intolerable mitigation burden exists.

  12. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  13. Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutton, M.A.; Reis, S.; Riddick, S.N.; Dragosits, U.; Nemitz, E.; Tang, Y.S.; Braban, C.F.; Vieno, M.; Dore, A.J.; Mitchell, R.F.; Wanless, S.; Daunt, F.; Fowler, D. [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Blackall, T.D. [Department of Geography, Strand Campus, Kings College London, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Theobald, M.R. [Higher Technical School of Agricultural Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Milford, C. [Izana Atmospheric Research Center, Meteorological State Agency of Spain (AEMET), Santa Cruz de Tenerife 38071 (Spain); Flechard, C.R. [INRA, Agrocampus Ouest, UMR 1069 SAS, 65 rue de St. Brieuc, 35042 Rennes Cedex (France); Loubet, B.; Massad, R.; Cellier, P.; Personne, E. [UMR INRA-AgroParisTech Environnement et Grandes Cultures, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France); Coheur, P.F.; Clarisse, L.; Van Damme, M.; Ngadi, Y. [Spectroscopie de l' atmosphere, Chimie Quantique et Photophysique, Universite Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), 50 avenue F. D. Roosevelt, 1050 Brussels (Belgium); Clerbaux, C. [Universite Paris 06, Universite Versailles-St. Quentin, UMR8190, CNRS/INSU, LATMOS-IPSL, Paris (France); Geels, C.; Hertel, O. [Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, P.O. Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ambelas Skjoeth, C. [National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of Worcester, Henwick Grove, Worcester WR2 6AJ (United Kingdom); Wichink Kruit, R.J. [TNO, Climate, Air and Sustainability, P.O. Box 80015, 3508 TA Utrecht (Netherlands); Pinder, R.W.; Bash, J.O.; Walker, J.T. [US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Durham, NC 27711 (United States); Simpson, D. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, EMEP MSC-W, P.O. Box 43-Blindern, 0313 Oslo (Norway); Horvath, L. [Plant Ecology Research Group of Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany and Ecophysiology, Szent Istvan University, Pater K. utca 1, 2100 Goedoello (Hungary); Misselbrook, T.H. [Rothamsted Research, Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems, North Wyke, Okehampton EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Bleeker, A. [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Dentener, F. [European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (Italy); De Vries, W. [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2013-07-15

    Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land-atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission-deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5{sup o}C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28-67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45-85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89-179) Tg by 2100.

  14. Differentiating Climate Change and Emissions Influence on Future Ozone and Health

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, J.; Kim, Y. M.; Gao, Y.; Fu, J. S.; Chang, H. H.; Liu, Y.

    2015-12-01

    From the advent of coal burning and the subsequent industrial revolution to the present, human activities continue to influence ground-level ozone (O3) concentrations. Besides the obvious environmental and climate implications, studies have shown convincing links between O3 exposure and health. These adverse health outcomes range from impaired lung function and cardiovascular stress to premature death. However, little is known concerning the potential impacts of future mitigation policies on O3 and health. Applying novel modeling strategies, we provide evidence of the impact of mitigation on O3 attributable to both climate change and anthropogenic emissions. We employ the latest emission scenarios for both low and high emissions (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs) and include population projections to estimate excess mortality associated with each source separate from one another. We found that, by the mid-21st century, U.S. O3 could increase by 0.9% per year under a low emission future and by 1.6% under high emission settings. We predict excess mortality from high emission-induced O3 to increase annually by over 1,200 deaths. Conversely, excess deaths from lower emissions may decrease by over 1,600 annually. Taken together, these results indicate that mitigation efforts may significantly offset the effect of climate change on O3-related mortality.

  15. Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, E.

    2012-12-01

    Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a

  16. Projecting Future Land Use Changes in West Africa Driven by Climate and Socioeconomic Factors: Uncertainties and Implications for Adaptation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.

    2015-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing in West Africa, a region of strong land-atmosphere coupling. At the same time, climate change can be an important driver for land use, although its importance relative to the impact of socio-economic factors may vary significant from region to region. This study compares the contributions of climate change and socioeconomic development to potential future changes of agricultural land use in West Africa and examines various sources of uncertainty using a land use projection model (LandPro) that accounts for the impact of socioeconomic drivers on the demand side and the impact of climate-induced crop yield changes on the supply side. Future crop yield changes were simulated by a process-based crop model driven with future climate projections from a regional climate model, and future changes of food demand is projected using a model for policy analysis of agricultural commodities and trade. The impact of human decision-making on land use was explicitly considered through multiple "what-if" scenarios to examine the range of uncertainties in projecting future land use. Without agricultural intensification, the climate-induced decrease of crop yield together with increase of food demand are found to cause a significant increase in agricultural land use at the expense of forest and grassland by the mid-century, and the resulting land use land cover changes are found to feed back to the regional climate in a way that exacerbates the negative impact of climate on crop yield. Analysis of results from multiple decision-making scenarios suggests that human adaptation characterized by science-informed decision making to minimize land use could be very effective in many parts of the region.

  17. Alternative Climate Policies and Intertemporal Emissions Leakage: Quantifying the Green Paradox

    OpenAIRE

    FISCHER, Carolyn; Salant, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Efforts to limit cumulative emissions over the next century may be partially thwarted by the responses of fossil fuel suppliers. Current price-cost margins for major reserves are ample, leaving scope for significant price reductions if climate policies reduce demand for fossil fuels through conservation or substitution to clean alternatives. Most models simulating the consequences of climate policies completely disregard these supply responses. As for theoretical models, under standard assump...

  18. An alternative to the Global Warming Potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    OpenAIRE

    2003-01-01

    The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subject to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric, which we call the Global Tem...

  19. Climate Benefits of Material Recycling: Inventory of Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Denmark, Norway and Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hillman, Karl; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksson, Ola;

    The purpose of this project is to compare emissions of greenhouse gases from material recycling with those from virgin material production, both from a material supply perspective and from a recycling system perspective. The method for estimating emissions and climate benefits is based on a review...... results can be used by companies and industry associations in Denmark, Norway and Sweden to communicate the current climate benefits of material recycling in general. They may also contribute to discussions on a societal level, as long as their average and historic nature is recognised....

  20. Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development in Bangladesh (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

    2013-11-01

    Bangladesh is widely considered to be one of the nations most threatened by climate change. With two-thirds of the country less than 20 feet above sea level, the intrusion of salt into freshwater wells, frequent flooding, and the displacement of people from their homes is an ongoing threat. At the same time, the country's cities are rapidly growing, and the demand for energy is increasing at a corresponding rate.

  1. Climate impacts of changing aerosol emissions since 1996

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kühn, T.; Partanen, A.-I.; Laakso, A.; Lu, Z.; Bergman, T.; Mikkonen, S.; Kokkola, H.; Korhonen, H.; Räisänen, P.; Streets, D. G.; Romakkaniemi, S.; Laaksonen, A.

    2014-07-01

    Increases in Asian aerosol emissions have been suggested as one possible reason for the hiatus in global temperature increase during the past 15 years. We study the effect of sulphur and black carbon (BC) emission changes between 1996 and 2010 on the global energy balance. We find that the increased Asian emissions have had very little regional or global effects, while the emission reductions in Europe and the U.S. have caused a positive radiative forcing. In our simulations, the global-mean aerosol direct radiative effect changes by 0.06 W/m2 during 1996 to 2010, while the effective radiative forcing (ERF) is 0.42 W/m2. The rather large ERF arises mainly from changes in cloudiness, especially in Europe. In Asia, the BC warming due to sunlight absorption has largely offset the cooling caused by sulphate aerosols. Asian BC concentrations have increased by a nearly constant fraction at all altitudes, and thus, they warm the atmosphere also in cloudy conditions.

  2. Control of spontaneous emission from a microwave-field-driven four-level atom in an anisotropic photonic crystal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The spontaneous emission properties of a microwave-field-driven four-level atom embedded in anisotropic double-band photonic crystals (PCs) are investigated. We discuss the influences of the band-edge positions, Rabi frequency and detuning of the microwave field on the emission spectrum. It is found that several interesting features such as spectral-line enhancement, spectral-line suppression, spectral-line overlap, and multi-peak structures can be observed in the spectra. The proposed scheme can be achieved by use of a microwave-coupled field into hyperfine levels in rubidium atom confined in a photonic crystal. These theoretical investigations may provide more degrees of freedom to manipulate the atomic spontaneous emission. -- Highlights: ► Spontaneous emission properties of an atom embedded in PCs are investigated. ► Spectral-line enhancement, suppression and overlapping are observed. ► The results provide more degrees of freedom to control atomic spontaneous emission.

  3. Some estimates of the insurance value against climate change from reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Estimates of the value of reduced risk from marginal reductions in current greenhouse gas emissions are presented, using Nordhaus's results and predictions from the scientific models. Only under extreme scenarios for climate change, or when future utility is discounted at an unusually low rate, does the insurance value seem likely to be significant relative to the costs of cutting emissions. 17 refs., 1 fig., 3 tabs

  4. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change

    OpenAIRE

    Xingguo Han; Xue Sun; Cheng Wang; Mengxiong Wu; Da Dong; Ting Zhong; Thies, Janice E.; Weixiang Wu

    2016-01-01

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated...

  5. Rising methane emissions in response to climate change in Northern Eurasia during the 21st century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We used a biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to examine the methane (CH4) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere in Northern Eurasia from 1971 to 2100. Multiple model simulations using various wetland extent datasets and climate change scenarios were conducted to assess the uncertainty of CH4 fluxes, including emissions and consumption. On the basis of these simulations we estimate the current net emissions in the region to be 20–24 Tg CH4 yr−1 (1 Tg = 1012 g), two-thirds of which are emitted during the summer. In response to climate change over the 21st century, the annual CH4 emissions in the region are projected to increase at a rate of 0.06 Tg CH4 yr−1, which is an order of magnitude greater than that of annual CH4 consumption. Further, the annual net CH4 emissions are projected to increase by 6–51% under various wetland extent datasets and climate scenarios by the end of the 21st century, relative to present conditions. Spatial patterns of net CH4 emissions were determined by wetland extent. Net CH4 emissions were dominated by wetlands within boreal forests, grasslands and wet tundra areas in the region. Correlation analyses indicated that water table depth and soil temperature were the two most important environmental controls on both CH4 emissions and consumption in the region. Our uncertainty analyses indicated that the uncertainty in wetland extent had a larger effect on future CH4 emissions than the uncertainty in future climate. This study suggests that better characterization of the spatial distribution and the natural diversity of wetlands should be a research priority for quantifying CH4 fluxes in this region.

  6. Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand - Climate Version 1

    OpenAIRE

    Hendy, Joanna; Kerr, Suzi

    2005-01-01

    Several different New Zealand economic models produce measures of rural economic activity that have greenhouse gas implications. For climate change analysis, models need to translate economic activity into greenhouse gas emissions. This document estimates functions and creates projections for land-use related greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic activity that are simple; are based on readily available data and strong science; are consistent with the national inventory in 2002; evolve...

  7. Greenhouse Gas Emission Factor Module: Land Use in Rural New Zealand—Climate Version 1

    OpenAIRE

    Hendy, Joanna; Kerr, Suzi

    2005-01-01

    Several different New Zealand economic models produce measures of rural economic activity that have greenhouse gas implications. For climate change analysis, models need to translate economic activity into greenhouse gas emissions. This document estimates functions and creates projections for land-use related greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic activity that are simple; are based on readily available data and strong science; are consistent with the national inventory in 2002; evolve...

  8. Model estimates of climate controls on pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-01-01

    Climate factors including soil temperature and moisture, incident solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are important environmental controls on methane (CH4) emissions from northern wetlands. We investigated the spatio-temporal distributions of the influence of these factors on northern high latitude wetland CH4 emissions using an enhanced version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. We simulated CH4 emissio...

  9. The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. T. Shindell

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emissions of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2 and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. For steadily increasing emissions without substantial pollution controls, we find that the net global mean climate forcing ranges from near zero to a substantial negative value, depending on the magnitude of aerosol indirect effects, due to aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. The long-term forcing from stable (constant emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls, with larger values in the case of pollutant controls. The results imply that historical emissions from coal-fired power plants until ~1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period. Those emissions likely led to weak cooling at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and warming in the Southern Hemisphere, however. Subsequent imposition of pollution controls and the switch to low-sulfur coal in some areas kept global SO2 emissions roughly level from 1970 to 2000. Hence during that period, RF due to emissions during those decades and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and likely contributed to rapid global and regional warming. Most recently, construction of coal-fired power plants in China and India has been increasing rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of high-growth rates for another 30 years would lead to near zero to negative global mean climate forcing in the absence of expanded pollution controls, but severely degraded air quality. However, following the Western pattern of high coal usage followed by imposition of pollution controls could lead to accelerated global warming in the

  10. Sensitivity of isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN to the time resolution of input climate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ashworth

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the effect of varying the temporal resolution of the input climate data on isoprene emission estimates generated by the community emissions model MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature. The estimated total global annual emissions of isoprene is reduced from 766 Tg y−1 when using hourly input data to 746 Tg y−1 (a reduction of 3% for daily average input data and 711 Tg y−1 (down 7% for monthly average input data. The impact on a local scale can be more significant with reductions of up to 55% at some locations when using monthly average data compared with using hourly data. If the daily and monthly average temperature data are used without the imposition of a diurnal cycle the global emissions estimates fall by 27–32%, and local annual emissions by up to 77%. A similar pattern emerges if hourly isoprene fluxes are considered. In order to better simulate and predict isoprene emission rates using MEGAN, we show it is necessary to use temperature and radiation data resolved to one hour. Given the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system and the low computational cost of the MEGAN algorithms, we recommend that chemistry-climate models and the new generation of Earth system models input biogenic emissions at the highest temporal resolution possible.

  11. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO2). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO2. Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO2 emissions. (letter)

  12. The case for consumption-based accounting of greenhouse gas emissions to promote local climate action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    One of the challenges faced by local governments in the work with municipal climate action plans concerns accounting for the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions-what emissions should be targeted, development of emissions over time, and how to effectively measure the success of local climate action. In this paper, we present challenges in developing a GHG emissions inventory related to the provision of municipal services. We argue that a consumption-based perspective, illustrated through the use of the carbon footprint (CF), rather than more conventional production-based inventory, provides a more useful and less misleading indicator. We present an analysis of the CF of municipal services provided by the city of Trondheim. The use of data directly from the city's accounting system ensures a reliable calculation of indirect emissions, and, with some minor modifications, also accurate data on direct emissions. Our analysis shows that approximately 93 percent of the total CF of municipal services is indirect emissions, located in upstream paths, underlining the need of introducing consumption-based indicators that takes into account upstream GHG emissions.

  13. Comparing climate and cost impacts of reference levels for reducing emissions from deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The climate benefit and economic cost of an international mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) will depend on the design of reference levels for crediting emission reductions. We compare the impacts of six proposed reference level designs on emission reduction levels and on cost per emission reduction using a stylized partial equilibrium model (the open source impacts of REDD incentives spreadsheet; OSIRIS). The model explicitly incorporates national incentives to participate in an international REDD mechanism as well as international leakage of deforestation emissions. Our results show that a REDD mechanism can provide cost-efficient climate change mitigation benefits under a broad range of reference level designs. We find that the most effective reference level designs balance incentives to reduce historically high deforestation emissions with incentives to maintain historically low deforestation emissions. Estimates of emission reductions under REDD depend critically on the degree to which demand for tropical frontier agriculture generates leakage. This underscores the potential importance to REDD of complementary strategies to supply agricultural needs outside of the forest frontier.

  14. Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Mark A.; Reis, Stefan; Riddick, Stuart N.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Nemitz, Eiko; Theobald, Mark R.; Tang, Y. Sim; Braban, Christine F.; Vieno, Massimo; Dore, Anthony J.; Mitchell, Robert F.; Wanless, Sarah; Daunt, Francis; Fowler, David; Blackall, Trevor D.; Milford, Celia; Flechard, Chris R.; Loubet, Benjamin; Massad, Raia; Cellier, Pierre; Personne, Erwan; Coheur, Pierre F.; Clarisse, Lieven; Van Damme, Martin; Ngadi, Yasmine; Clerbaux, Cathy; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla; Hertel, Ole; Wichink Kruit, Roy J.; Pinder, Robert W.; Bash, Jesse O.; Walker, John T.; Simpson, David; Horváth, László; Misselbrook, Tom H.; Bleeker, Albert; Dentener, Frank; de Vries, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land–atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission–deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5°C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28–67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45–85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89–179) Tg by 2100. PMID:23713128

  15. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  16. Coexistence of Gravitationally Bound and Radiation Driven CIV Emission Line Regions in Active Galactic Nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Wang, Huiyuan; Zhou, Hongyan; Liu, Bo; Wang, Jianguo; Yuan, Weimin; Dong, Xiaobo

    2011-01-01

    There are mutually contradictory views in the literature of the kinematics and structure of high-ionization line (e.g. CIV) emitting regions in active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Two kinds of broad emission line region (BELR) models have been proposed, outflow and gravitationally bound BELR, which are supported respectively by blueshift of the CIV line and reverberation mapping observations. To reconcile these two apparently different models, we present a detailed comparison study between the CIV and MgII lines using a sample of AGNs selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that the kinematics of the CIV region is different from that of MgII, which is thought to be controlled by gravity. A strong correlation is found between the blueshift and asymmetry of the CIV profile and the Eddington ratio. This provides strong observational support for the postulation that the outflow is driven by radiation pressure. In particular, we find robust evidence that the CIV line region is largely dominated by outflow a...

  17. Climate change and pollutant emissions impacts on air quality in 2050 over Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sá, E.; Martins, H.; Ferreira, J.; Marta-Almeida, M.; Rocha, A.; Carvalho, A.; Freitas, S.; Borrego, C.

    2016-04-01

    Changes in climate and air pollutant emissions will affect future air quality from global to urban scale. In this study, regional air quality simulations for historical and future periods are conducted, with CAMx version 6.0, to investigate the impacts of future climate and anthropogenic emission projections on air quality over Portugal and the Porto metropolitan area in 2050. The climate and the emission projections were derived from the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP8.5) scenario. Modelling results show that climate change will impact NO2, PM10 and O3 concentrations over Portugal. The NO2 and PM10 annual means will increase in Portugal and in the Porto municipality, and the maximum 8-hr daily O3 value will increase in the Porto suburban areas (approximately 5%) and decrease in the urban area (approximately 2%). When considering climate change and projected anthropogenic emissions, the NO2 annual mean decreases (approximately 50%); PM10 annual mean will increase in Portugal and decrease in Porto municipality (approximately 13%); however PM10 and O3 levels increase and extremes occur more often, surpassing the currently legislated annual limits and displaying a higher frequency of daily exceedances. This air quality degradation is likely to be related with the trends found for the 2046-2065 climate, which implies warmer and dryer conditions, and with the increase of background concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. The results demonstrate the need for Portuguese authorities and policy-makers to design and implement air quality management strategies that take climate change impacts into account.

  18. Contrasting impacts of climate-driven flowering phenology on changes in alien and native plant species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hulme, Philip E

    2011-01-01

    • Plant phenology is particularly sensitive to climate and a key indicator of environmental change. Globally, first flowering dates (FFDs) have advanced by several days per decade in response to recent climate warming, but, while earlier flowering should allow plant distributions to increase, a link between FFD and range changes has not been observed. • Here I show for 347 species that the extent to which FFD has responded to climate warming is linked to the degree to which their relative distributions have changed over 30 yr across the British Isles. • Native plant species whose phenology did not track climate change declined in distribution, whereas species that became more widespread all exhibited earlier flowering. In contrast, alien neophytes showed both a stronger phenological response to warming and a more marked increase in distribution, but no link between the two. • These trends were consistent both for relative changes in the national distribution and for local abundance. At the national scale, the more recently an alien species became established in Britain, the more likely it was to increase in distribution irrespective of FFD, suggesting that recent changes in alien species distributions are decoupled from climate and driven by other factors. PMID:20807339

  19. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mark Scriber

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

  20. Quantifying Climate Feedbacks from Abrupt Changes in High-Latitude Trace-Gas Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlosser, Courtney Adam [MIT; Walter-Anthony, Katey [University of Alaska; Zhuang, Qianlai [Purdue University; Melillo, Jerry [Marine Biological Laboratory

    2013-04-26

    Our overall goal was to quantify the potential for threshold changes in natural emission rates of trace gases, particularly methane and carbon dioxide, from pan-arctic terrestrial systems under the spectrum of anthropogenically forced climate warming, and the extent to which these emissions provide a strong feedback mechanism to global climate warming. This goal is motivated under the premise that polar amplification of global climate warming will induce widespread thaw and degradation of the permafrost, and would thus cause substantial changes in the extent of wetlands and lakes, especially thermokarst (thaw) lakes, over the Arctic. Through a coordinated effort of field measurements, model development, and numerical experimentation with an integrated assessment model framework, we have investigated the following hypothesis: There exists a climate-warming threshold beyond which permafrost degradation becomes widespread and thus instigates strong and/or sharp increases in methane emissions (via thermokarst lakes and wetland expansion). These would outweigh any increased uptake of carbon (e.g. from peatlands) and would result in a strong, positive feedback to global climate warming.

  1. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Donat, Markus G.; Pitman, Andy J.; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L.

    2016-01-01

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean.

  2. Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Paivi; Rinnan, Åsmund;

    2010-01-01

    • Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming, which will be more severe here than averaged over the....... BVOC emissions were seasonal, and warming combined with litter addition triggered emissions of specific compounds. • The unexpectedly high rate of release of BVOCs measured in this conservative warming scenario is far above the estimates produced by the current models, which underlines the importance...

  3. Methane emissions from Alaska arctic tundra in response to climatic change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In situ observations of methane emissions from the Alaska North Slope in 1987 and 1989 provide insight into the environmental interactions regulating methane emissions and into the local- and regional-scale response of the arctic tundra to interannual environmental variability. Inferences regarding climate change are based on in situ measurements of methane emissions, regional landscape characterizations derived from Landsat Multispectral Scanner satellite data, and projected regional-scale emissions based on observed interannual temperature differences and simulated changes in the spatial distribution of methane emissions. The authors results suggest that biogenic methane emissions from arctic tundra will be significantly perturbed by climatic change, leading to warmer summer soil temperatures and to vertical displacement of the regional water table. The effect of increased soil temperatures on methane emissions resulting from anaerobic decomposition in northern wetlands will be to both increase total emissions and to increase interannual and seasonal variability. The magnitude of these effects will be determined by those factors affecting the areal distribution of methane emission rates through regulation of the regional water table. At local scales, the observed 4.7C increase in mid-summer soil temperatures between 1987 and 1989 resulted in a 3.2-fold increase in the rate of methane emissions from anaerobic soils. The observed linear temperature response was then projected to the regional scale of the Alaska North Slope under three environmental scenarios. Under moderately drier environmental conditions than observed in 1987, a 4C mid-summer increase in soil temperatures more than doubled regional methane emissions relative to the 1987 regional mean of 0.72 mg m-2 hr-1 over the 88,408 km2 study area

  4. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  5. Strategies for implementing Climate Smart Agriculture and creating marketable Greenhouse emission reduction credits, for small scale rice farmers in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahuja, R.; Kritee, K.; Rudek, J.; Van Sanh, N.; Thu Ha, T.

    2014-12-01

    Industrial agriculture systems, mostly in developed and some emerging economies, are far different from the small holder farms that dot the landscapes in Asia and Africa. At Environmental Defense Fund, along with our partners from non-governmental, corporate, academic and government sectors and farmers, we have worked actively in India and Vietnam for the last four years to better understand how small scale farmers working on rice paddy (and other upland crops) cultivation can best deal with climate change. Some of the questions we have tried to answer are: What types of implementable best practices, both old and new, on small farm systems lend themselves to improved yields, farm incomes, climate resilience and mitigation? Can these practices be replicated everywhere or is the change more landscape and people driven? What are the institutional, cultural, financial and risk-perception related barriers that prevent scaling up of these practices? How do we innovate and overcome these barriers? The research community needs to work more closely together and leverage multiple scientific, economic and policy disciplines to fully answer these questions. In the case of small farm systems, we find that it helps to follow certain steps if the climate-smart (or low carbon) farming programs are to succeed and the greenhouse credits generated are to be marketed: Demographic data collection and plot demarcation Farmer networks and diaries Rigorous baseline determination via surveys Alternative practice determination via consultation with local universities/experts Measurements on representative plots for 3-4 years (including GHG emissions, yields, inputs, economic and environmental savings) to help calibrate biogeochemical models and/or calculate regional emission factors. Propagation of alternative practices across the landscape via local NGOs/governments Recording of parameters necessary to extrapolate representative plot GHG emission reductions to all farmers in a given

  6. More frequent moments in the climate change debate as emissions continue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huntingford, Chris; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-12-01

    Recent years have witnessed unprecedented interest in how the burning of fossil fuels may impact on the global climate system. Such visibility of this issue is in part due to the increasing frequency of key international summits to debate emissions levels, including the 2015 21st Conference of Parties meeting in Paris. In this perspective we plot a timeline of significant climate meetings and reports, and against metrics of atmospheric greenhouse gas changes and global temperature. One powerful metric is cumulative CO2 emissions that can be related to past and future warming levels. That quantity is analysed in detail through a set of papers in this ERL focus issue. We suggest it is an open question as to whether our timeline implies a lack of progress in constraining climate change despite multiple recent keynote meetings—or alternatively—that the increasing level of debate is encouragement that solutions will be found to prevent any dangerous warming levels?

  7. Dynamics of cooperative emissions in a cascade three-level molecular system driven by an ultrashort laser pulse

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This paper investigates the dynamics of cooperative emissions in a cascade three-level system driven by an ultrashort laser pulse by solving numerically the full-wave Maxwell–Bloch equations. The 4, 4'-bis(dimethylamino) stilbene molecule is used as the model molecule because of its strong two-photon absorption property. The two-colour cooperative emissions are studied as functions of molecular number density and dephasing rate of the dipole coherence. The propagation effects on the evolution of the cooperative radiations are also taken into account. The cooperative radiations are enhanced for large number density of the molecule, while the fast dephasing of the dipole coherence reduces the intensity of the cooperative radiations and delays the emission times or even inhibits the formation of the emissions. The delay time of the radiation decreases with the increase of the molecular number density and the propagation distance. (classical areas of phenomenology)

  8. Climate-driven population responses of resident brown trout, Salmo trutta: Trends and future projections

    OpenAIRE

    2016-01-01

    The climate is changing at an alarming rate with consequences such as species and population extinctions, changes in species distribution and phenology. However, mechanisms underlying these global trends are not well understood, especially at a population level. Climate effects on demographic traits and population dynamics have recently received increasing attention as key importance for understanding the ecological impacts of climate change. The effects on demographic traits might vary acros...

  9. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO driven climate variability at the global scale

    OpenAIRE

    T. I. E. Veldkamp; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; J. C. J. H. Aerts; P. J. Ward

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most important risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and in some regions climate change However, less attention has been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcit...

  10. Allocating greenhouse gas emissions in the German federal system: Regional interests and federal climate governance

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The academic debate on climate policies often portrays Germany as one of the most successful cases. Despite its federal system of joint decision-making, most studies of German climate policy focus primarily upon activities at the national level while disregarding the heterogeneous economic interests and veto options of the Länder. Using the cases on renewable energy policy and emission trading, we analyze the subnational interests and institutional mechanisms that shape the intergovernmental negotiations and policy outcomes within the federated system. The cases confirm assumptions made by general research on German federalism, according to which strategies for the externalization and compensation of costs are of particular importance for redistributive policies, and the EU plays a major role in dissolving potential barriers to the process of federal policy formation. Contrary to the reservations often expressed, we demonstrate that climate policies have led to an increased economic and political competition between the Länder and have supported effective solutions. However, recent shortfalls in the effectiveness of emission trading and in the cost-efficiency of renewable energy policies indicate that redistributive conflicts in the allocation of greenhouse gas emissions have to be addressed more systematically within the German (and the European) system(s) of joint decision-making. - Highlights: • Profound study of renewable energy policy and emission trading in Germany. • Study of joint-decision making in climate policy in the German federal system. • Intergovernmental conflicts and agreements in allocating GHG emissions. • Policy outcomes, potentials and restrictions of federal climate governance

  11. Response of terrestrial N2O and NOx emissions to abrupt climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Being a potent greenhouse gas, N2O emitted by the terrestrial biosphere during abrupt climate change events could have amplified externally forced warming. To investigate this possibility, we tested the sensitivity of terrestrial N2O emissions to an abrupt warming event by applying the ARVE-DGVM in combination with a novel scheme for process-based simulation of terrestrial N2O and NOx emissions at the Gerzensee site in Switzerland. In this study, we aim to quantify the magnitude of change in emissions for the abrupt climate change event that occurred at the transition from Oldest Dryas to Boel-ling during the last deglaciation. Using high-resolution multiproxy records obtained from the Gerzensee that cover the Late Glacial, we apply a prescribed vegetation change derived from the pollen record and temperature and precipitation reconstructions derived from δ18O in lake sediments. Changes in soil temperature and moisture are simulated by the ARVE-DGVM using the reconstructed paleoclimate as a driver. Our results show a pronounced increase in mean annual N2O and NOx emissions for the transition (by factor 2.55 and 1.97, respectively), with highest amounts generally being emitted during summer. Our findings suggest that summertime emissions are limited by soil moisture, while temperature controls emissions during winter. For the time between 14670 and 14620 cal. years BP, our simulated N2O emissions show increase rates as high as 1% per year, indicating that local reactions of emissions to changing climate could have been considerably faster than the atmospheric concentration changes observed in polar ice.

  12. Response of Arctic Temperature to Changes in Emissions of Short-Lived Climate Forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2015-12-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased twice the global rate, largely due to ice albedo and temperature feedbacks. While deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short lived climate forcers (SLCFs). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation appear promptly and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This study is the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCF emissions, taking into account BC, sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile hydrocarbons (VOC), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone, their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. Using several chemical transport models we perform detailed radiative forcing calculations from emissions of these species. Geographically we separate emissions into seven source regions that correspond with the national groupings of the Arctic Council, the leading body organizing international policy in the region (the United States, Canada, the Nordic countries, the rest of Europe, Russia, East and South Asia, and the rest of the world). We look at six main sectors known to account for [nearly all] of these emissions: households (domestic), energy/industry/waste, transport, agricultural fires, grass/forest fires, and gas flaring. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible SLCFs mitigation scenario, phased in from 2015 through 2030, can cut warming by 0.2 K in 2050.

  13. Wavebreaking-associated transmitted emission of attosecond extreme-ultraviolet pulses from laser-driven overdense plasmas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Zi-Yu; Cherednychek, Mykyta; Pukhov, Alexander

    2016-06-01

    We present a new mechanism of attosecond extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) pulses generation from a relativistic laser-driven overdense plasma surfaces in the wavebreaking regime. Through particle-in-cell simulations and analysis, we demonstrate that the observed ultrashort XUV emission for the parameters we considered is predominantly due to a strong plasma-density oscillation subsequent to wavebreaking. The coupling of the strong density variation and the transverse fields in the front surface layer gives rise to the transmitted emission with frequencies mainly around the local plasma frequency. This mechanism provides new insights into the scenarios of XUV generation from solid surfaces and the dynamics of laser–plasma interactions.

  14. Greenhouse gas emission and exergy analyses of an integrated trigeneration system driven by a solid oxide fuel cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Exergy and greenhouse gas emission analyses are performed for a novel trigeneration system driven by a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). The trigeneration system also consists of a generator-absorber heat exchanger (GAX) absorption refrigeration system and a heat exchanger to produce electrical energy, cooling and heating, respectively. Four operating cases are considered: electrical power generation, electrical power and cooling cogeneration, electrical power and heating cogeneration, and trigeneration. Attention is paid to numerous system and environmental performance parameters, namely, exergy efficiency, exergy destruction rate, and greenhouse gas emissions. A maximum enhancement of 46% is achieved in the exergy efficiency when the SOFC is used as the primary mover for the trigeneration system compared to the case when the SOFC is used as a standalone unit. The main sources of irreversibility are observed to be the air heat exchanger, the SOFC and the afterburner. The unit CO2 emission (in kg/MWh) is considerably higher for the case in which only electrical power is generated. This parameter is reduced by half when the system is operates in a trigeneration mode. - Highlights: • A novel trigeneration system driven by a solid oxide fuel cell is analyzed. • Exergy and greenhouse gas emission analyses are performed. • Four special cases are considered. • An enhancement of up to 46% is achieved in exergy efficiency. • The CO2 emission drops to a relatively low value for the tri-generation case

  15. Nitrous oxide emissions from manure handling - effects of storage conditions and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stored animal manure and manure applied in the field contributes an estimated 20% to the total anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N20) in Denmark. Manure composition, handling and climatic conditions may all influence the emission level during storage, but there are relatively few experimental data on emissions of N20 from manure management, including animal houses, slurry stores and manure heaps. Among animal housing systems, very high emission rates have been found with pig deep lifter, and N20 emissions are further stimulated by mechanical mixing. Slurry stores are anaerobic, but a recent study showed that N20 can be produced in porous surface covers such as natural surface crusts, straw or leca pebbles, while no N20 was emitted from uncovered slurry. The emission was significantly related to the water balance, i.e., the difference between evaporation and rain, during dry periods; during wet periods no N20 was emitted. For solid manure, previous studies have typically found that less than 1 % of total N is emitted as N20. Nitrous oxide may be produced throughout the manure heap, provided an environment with both aerobic and anaerobic pockets exists. Profiles from an experimental heap indicated that most of the N20 emitted from solid manure was produced near the surface of the heap. Increasing density appears to stimulate N20 emissions up to a point, where the air exchange is significantly impeded. The IPCC methodology calculates N20 emissions from manure on the basis of total N content (that is, on the basis of volume) and climate region only. Possibly, estimates of N20 emissions from slurry stores could be improved by considering surface area, ammonium content and water balance as input variables. Emissions from solid manure heaps should consider surface area and the potential for composting, as reflected in bulk density and moisture content. (au)

  16. Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

    2014-05-01

    Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable

  17. Model estimates of climate controls on pan-Arctic wetland methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Bohn, T. J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2015-11-01

    Climate factors including soil temperature and moisture, incident solar radiation, and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration are important environmental controls on methane (CH4) emissions from northern wetlands. We investigated the spatiotemporal distributions of the influence of these factors on northern high-latitude wetland CH4 emissions using an enhanced version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model. We simulated CH4 emissions from wetlands across the pan-Arctic domain over the period 1948-2006, yielding annual average emissions of 36.1 ± 6.7 Tg CH4 yr-1 for the period 1997-2006. We characterized historical sensitivities of CH4 emissions to air temperature, precipitation, incident long- and shortwave radiation, and atmospheric [CO2] as a function of average summer air temperature and precipitation. Emissions from relatively warm and dry wetlands in the southern (permafrost-free) portion of the domain were positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with air temperature, while emissions from wetter and colder wetlands further north (permafrost) were positively correlated with air temperature. Over the entire period 1948-2006, our reconstructed CH4 emissions increased by 20 %, the majority of which can be attributed to an increasing trend in summer air temperature. We estimated future emissions in response to 21st century warming as predicted by CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) model projections to result in end-of-century CH4 emissions 38-53 % higher than our reconstructed 1997-2006 emissions, accompanied by the northward migration of warmer and drier than optimal conditions for CH4 emissions, implying a reduced role for temperature in driving future increases in emissions.

  18. An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

    OpenAIRE

    Liddicoat, S. K.; Booth, B. B. B.; M. M. Joshi

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate-carbon cycle model. The two paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions exceeding two trillion tonnes of carbon in the later pair. Their initially diverging cumulative emissions trajectories ...

  19. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  20. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems. Results after first growing season and mid term status report

    OpenAIRE

    Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.; Estiarte, M.; Penuelas, J.; Guash, L.L.; Williams, D; Gordon, C.; Pugh, B.; Roda, F.; Gundersen, P.; Gorissen, A.

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3oC increase in temperature with morevigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought periods within the coming 100 years. The consequences of such climatic changes for the terrestrial ecosystems are largely unknown. In order to improve our understanding of the ecosystem response to climat...

  1. Climate and Disaster Resilience : The Role for Community-Driven Development

    OpenAIRE

    Arnold, Margaret; Mearns, Robin; Oshima, Kaori; Prasad, Vivek

    2014-01-01

    This paper is part of a larger effort to document, assess, and promote scalable models and approaches to empower poor communities to manage a climate and disaster risk agenda in support of their development goals and to identify practical ways of getting climate and disaster risk financing directly to the ground level where impacts are felt. Social funds, social protection systems and safety ...

  2. The net climate impact of coal-fired power plant emissions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Shindell

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2 and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until ~1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low-sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogenaities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by

  3. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  4. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  5. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, Richard E

    2013-08-20

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. PMID:23918402

  6. Proposal for new climate agreements: Economic growth determines the emission quota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long-term obligations to curb the emission of climate gases involve economic uncertainty because it is difficult to determine the cost of future reductions. This may be the principle reason why the USA and the developing countries are reluctant to accept binding demands on their emissions of climate gases. For example, the commitments of the Kyoto Protocol were agreed upon more than ten years before they shall be put to force. Over such a long time span it is impossible to predict the development of the economy as well as the gas emissions. Usually economical development leads to increased gas emission. If a country commits itself to a quantified limit on its emission, and the economical development turns out to be much faster than predicted, then living up to the commitments may be very expensive. The same is true if the economic growth occurs in the polluting sectors to a larger degree than expected. Many heads of state thus fear that binding emission targets may restrain economic growth

  7. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

  8. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

  9. Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas Emissions (GHGs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wajeeha Malik

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to have raised carbon emissions from 76 million tons in 1990 to 200 million tons in 2006. It is estimated that CO2 emissions with an average increase of 6.5% annually will grow to 482 million tons by 2020. The transport sector is a significant contributor to GHG emissions with an estimated 15million tons in 1990. With a proportionate increase in GHG emissions with the 100% increase in motor vehicles, the sector will be responsible for the emission of 30 million ton CO2 by 2020. According to data reviewed, the total petroleum consumption of Pakistan was 383 thousand barrels per day in 2008. Natural gas consumption was 1,088 billion cubic feet in 2007. Coal consumption reached 8.583 million short tons in 2007. In 2006, the total Carbon dioxide emissions from consumption of fossil fuels reached 125.59 million metric tons (EIA. Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and will affect water resources within the next two to three decades. Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss. Beside that, coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to inland intrusion and increased flooding from the sea. Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan. The endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and droughts are expected to rise. The impact of climate change

  10. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  11. Climate and mortality changes due to reductions in household cooking emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Tommi; Mielonen, Tero; Arola, Antti; Kokkola, Harri

    2016-04-01

    Household cooking is a significant cause for health and environmental problems in the developing countries. There are more than 3 billion people who use biomass for fuel in cooking stoves in their daily life. These cooking stoves use inadequate ventilation and expose especially women and children to indoor smoke. To reduce problems of the biomass burning, India launched an initiative to provide affordable and clean energy solutions for the poorest households by providing clean next-generation cooking stoves. The improved cooking stoves are expected to improve outdoor air quality and to reduce the climate-active pollutants, thus simultaneously slowing the climate change. Previous research has shown that the emissions of black carbon can be decreased substantially, as much as 90 % by applying better technology in cooking stoves. We have implemented reasonable (50% decrease) and best case (90% decrease) scenarios of the reductions in black and organic carbon due to improved cooking stoves in India into ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model. The global simulations of the scenarios will be used to study how the reductions of emissions in India affect the pollutant concentrations and radiation. The simulated reductions in particulate concentrations will also be used to estimate the decrease in mortality rates. Furthermore, we will study how the emission reductions would affect the global climate and mortality if a similar initiative would be applied in other developing countries.

  12. Climate, Health, Agricultural and Economic Impacts of Tighter Vehicle-Emission Standards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Walsh, Michael; Anenberg, Susan C.; VanDingen, Rita; Muller, Nicholas Z.; Austin, Jeff; Koch, Dorothy; Milly, George

    2011-01-01

    Non-CO2 air pollutants from motor vehicles have traditionally been controlled to protect air quality and health, but also affect climate. We use global composition climate modelling to examine the integrated impacts of adopting stringent European on-road vehicle-emission standards for these pollutants in 2015 in many developing countries. Relative to no extra controls, the tight standards lead to annual benefits in 2030 and beyond of 120,000-280,000 avoided premature air pollution-related deaths, 6.1-19.7 million metric tons of avoided ozone-related yield losses of major food crops, $US0.6-2.4 trillion avoided health damage and $US1.1-4.3 billion avoided agricultural damage, and mitigation of 0.20 (+0.14/-0.17) C of Northern Hemisphere extratropical warming during 2040-2070. Tighter vehicle-emission standards are thus extremely likely to mitigate short-term climate change in most cases, in addition to providing large improvements in human health and food security. These standards will not reduce CO2 emissions, however, which is required to mitigate long-term climate change.

  13. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huebler, Michael [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany); Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Environmental Economics and World Trade; Loeschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  14. Reducing the Polluting Emissions. A Source for Diminishing the Climate Changes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilian M. DOBRESCU

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available The USA and the Western Europe are responsible for 2/3 of the CO2 emissions accumulated until today. On the other hand, Africa has produced only 3% of polluting emission since 1900 until today, by burning mineral fuels. Since 1992, the most industrialized countries have promised to help ôthe most vulnerable nations face the adverse consequences of climate changesö by supporting the costs of adaptation. The commitment was included in the convention frame that gave birth to the Kyoto Treaty, which was rejected by the George W. Bush Administration, even though the initial document, issued in 1992, had been signed by George Bush. The industrialized countries that signed the Kyoto Treaty have decided to create a special fund for ôclimate adaptationö. Hundreds of millions of dollars had to be used in order to diminish the impact of the global warming in the most exposed areas.Lately, maybe because the CO2 emissions increase due to human activities, the planet climate has changed for worse. 2007 was a key year in evaluating the reply the planet would give to the global overheating, mainly caused by the green-house effect and worsen by El Nino oceanic stream. This superposition of climate factors made 2007 to be one of the warmest years ever registered.

  15. Methane Emissions From Western Siberian Wetlands: Heterogeneity and Sensitivity to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohn, T. J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.; Podest, E.; McDonald, K. C.; Sathulur, K.; Bowling, L. C.; Friborg, T.

    2007-12-01

    Prediction of methane emissions from high-latitude wetlands is important given concerns about their sensitivity to a warming climate. As a basis for prediction of wetland methane emissions at regional scales, we have coupled the Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale hydrological model (VIC) with the Biosphere-Energy-Transfer- Hydrology terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY) and a wetland methane emissions model to make large-scale estimates of methane emissions as a function of soil temperature, water table depth, and net primary productivity (NPP), with a parameterization of the sub-grid heterogeneity of the water table depth based on topographic wetness index. Using landcover classifications derived from L-band satellite synthetic aperture radar imagery, we simulated methane emissions for the Chaya River basin in western Siberia, an area that includes the Bakchar Bog, for a retrospective baseline period of 1980-1999, and evaluated their sensitivity to increases in temperature of 0-5 °C and increases in precipitation of 0-15%. The interactions of temperature and precipitation, through their effects on the water table depth, play an important role in determining methane emissions from these wetlands. The balance between these effects varies spatially, and their net effect depends in part on sub- grid topographic heterogeneity. Higher temperatures alone increase methane production in saturated areas, but cause those saturated areas to shrink in extent, resulting in a net reduction in methane emissions. Higher precipitation alone raises water tables and expands the saturated area, resulting in a net increase in methane emissions. Combining a temperature increase of 3 °C and an increase of 10% in precipitation, to represent the climate conditions likely in western Siberia at the end of this century, results in roughly a doubling of annual methane emissions. This work was carried out at the University of Washington, at Purdue University, and at the Jet Propulsion

  16. Methane emissions from western Siberian wetlands: heterogeneity and sensitivity to climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The prediction of methane emissions from high-latitude wetlands is important given concerns about their sensitivity to a warming climate. As a basis for the prediction of wetland methane emissions at regional scales, we coupled the variable infiltration capacity macroscale hydrological model (VIC) with the biosphere-energy-transfer-hydrology terrestrial ecosystem model (BETHY) and a wetland methane emissions model to make large-scale estimates of methane emissions as a function of soil temperature, water table depth, and net primary productivity (NPP), with a parameterization of the sub-grid heterogeneity of the water table depth based on TOPMODEL. We simulated the methane emissions from a 100 km x 100 km region of western Siberia surrounding the Bakchar Bog, for a retrospective baseline period of 1980-1999 and have evaluated their sensitivity to increases in temperature of 0-5 0C and increases in precipitation of 0-15%. The interactions of temperature and precipitation, through their effects on the water table depth, played an important role in determining methane emissions from these wetlands. The balance between these effects varied spatially, and their net effect depended in part on sub-grid topographic heterogeneity. Higher temperatures alone increased methane production in saturated areas, but caused those saturated areas to shrink in extent, resulting in a net reduction in methane emissions. Higher precipitation alone raised water tables and expanded the saturated area, resulting in a net increase in methane emissions. Combining a temperature increase of 3 deg. C and an increase of 10% in precipitation to represent climate conditions that may pertain in western Siberia at the end of this century resulted in roughly a doubling in annual emissions

  17. Temporal and spatial profiles of emission intensities in atmospheric pressure helium plasma jet driven by microsecond pulse: Experiment and simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    A needle-circular electrode structure helium plasma jet driven by microsecond pulsed power is studied. Spatially resolved emission results show that the emission intensity of He(33S1) line decreases monotonically along the axial direction, while those of N2(C3Πu), N2+(B2∑+u), and O(3p5P) reach their maxima at 3 cm, 2.6 cm, and 1.4 cm, respectively. The plasma plume of the four species shows different characteristics: The N2 emission plume travels at a fast speed along the entire plasma jet; the N2+ emission plume is composed of a bright head and relatively weak tail and travels a shorter distance than the N2 emission plume; the He emission plume travels at a slower speed for only a very short distance; propagation of the O emission plume is not observed. Results of calculation of radiation fluxes emitted by positive streamers propagating along helium plasma jets are presented. It is shown, in agreement with the results of the present experiment and with other available experimental data, that the intensities of radiation of N2(C3Πu) molecules and He(33S1) atoms vary with time (along the plasma jet) quite differently. The factors resulting in this difference are discussed

  18. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simmons, C. T.; Matthews, H. D.

    2016-03-01

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions.

  19. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO2. We find that when we isolate the CO2-induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO2. We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  20. Climate change driving forces. Nuclear energy and the latest IPCC emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    How the world will develop over the next 100 years is riddled with uncertainties. Yet analysts can assess alternative developmental paths and diverse sets of driving forces to gain an image of the future - in fact a number of images, depending on assumptions they use. Over the past decades, the scientific and research community has devoted considerable attention to studying issues of climate change, and to modeling its possible future development, impact and ways to mitigate potential effects. The studies are complex, involving assessments of social, economic, and technological developments in diverse fields. In early 2000, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) approved a Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for the period through 2100. It contains 40 scenarios, prepared with six computer models, for the world and its main regions, and focuses largely on the main greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulphur dioxide. The scenarios are designed to provide a basis for assessments of climate change and its impact. The new scenarios are 'non-intervention' ones with regard to climate change - that is, they exclude measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, policies with respect to other environmental factors are included; this includes, for example, progress in sulphur abatement technologies in developing countries, which results in lower global sulphur dioxide emissions than in previous IPCC assessments. This article briefly reviews the latest IPCC emission scenarios and looks closely at the projected role of nuclear energy, which can provide a valuable long-term perspective for nuclear development. This perspective is especially useful since the possible 'nuclear futures' were modelled in the scenarios without taking into account considerations specifically related to climate change. Rather, the scenarios focused on technical and economic competition among energy supply options as the key driving force for determining the fuel mix in the energy

  1. Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

  2. Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Unknowns and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Idso, S.; Kondratyev, K. Ya.; Posmentier, E. S.

    2001-12-01

    A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent, substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply-interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly-held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the positive skills of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations

  3. Confronting the climate change challenge: discussing the role of rural India under cumulative emission budget approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Current global climate policy architecture does not aim at stabilizing the greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere that may achieve the proclaimed 2 °C guard rail. An alternative approach that targets on limiting the global cumulative emission to accomplish such an outcome is put forward by German Advisory Board of Global Change (WBGU). This research work further elaborates the approach and its flexibility instrument i.e. carbon trading. As the approach visualises sharing of the carbon budget (750Gt CO2) equally to every human being (2.7 t CO2 per capita), India is the country with largest tradable surplus reflecting its low emission per capita and large population. The research work further analyzes the emission profile of rural India and the significance of its future emission pathways within the proposed framework. It also shows how low carbon development in India can assist in cost effective decarbonization of industrialized countries and mitigation of climate change, given a global climate treaty based on the WBGU approach.

  4. Probabilistic quantification of allowable carbon emissions for meeting multiple climate targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steinacher, M.; Joos, F.; Stocker, T. F.

    2013-12-01

    Climate targets are designed to inform policies that would limit the magnitude and impacts of climate change caused by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and other substances. The target that is currently recognized by most world governments places a limit of two degrees Celsius on the global mean warming since preindustrial times. This would require large sustained reductions in carbon dioxide emissions during the twenty-first century and beyond. Such a global temperature target, however, is not sufficient to control many other quantities, such as transient sea level rise, ocean acidification, and net primary production on land. Here, using an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) in an observation-informed Bayesian approach, we show that allowable carbon emissions are substantially reduced when multiple climate targets are set. We take into account uncertainties in physical and carbon cycle model parameters, radiative efficiencies, climate sensitivity, and carbon cycle feedbacks by varying nineteen key model parameters. A broad set of site-specific and gridded observational data from atmosphere, ocean, and land is used to constrain the model ensemble to realizations that are compatible with observations. Within this framework, we explore a broad range of economically feasible greenhouse gas scenarios from the integrated assessment community to determine the likelihood of meeting a combination of specific global and regional targets under various assumptions. For any given likelihood of meeting a set of such targets, the allowable cumulative emissions are greatly reduced from those inferred from the temperature target alone. Therefore, temperature targets alone are unable to comprehensively limit the risks from anthropogenic emissions.

  5. Rate and velocity of climate change caused by cumulative carbon emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    LoPresti, Anna; Charland, Allison; Woodard, Dawn; Randerson, James; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Davis, Steven J.

    2015-09-01

    International climate mitigation efforts are focused on limiting increase in global mean temperature, which has been shown to be proportional to cumulative CO2 emissions. However, the ability of natural and human systems to successfully adapt to climatic changes depends on both the magnitude and rate of change, the latter of which will depend on how quickly a given level of cumulative emissions occurs. We show that cumulative CO2 emissions of 4620 Gt CO2 (reached in 2100 in RCP4.5 and 2057 in RCP8.5) produce globally averaged warming rates that are nearly twice as fast in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 (0.34 ± 0.08 °C per decade versus 0.19 ± 0.05 °C per decade, respectively). Similarly, the globally averaged velocity of climate change calculated according to the ‘nearest equivalent climate’ is greater by a factor of ˜2 in RCP8.5 than in RCP4.5 (2.51 ± 0.67 km yr-1 versus 1.32 ± 0.39 km yr-1, respectively), despite equivalent cumulative emissions. These differences in the projected velocity of climate change represent uncertainty for ecosystems that may be unable to adapt to the faster changes. Particularly at risk are boreal forests, of which 48% are projected to experience rates of change beyond their expected adaptive capacity (i.e. >0.3 °C per decade) in RCP4.5, compared with 95% in RCP8.5. Thus, the same budget of cumulative carbon emissions may result in critically different impacts on natural and human systems, depending on the amount of time over which that budget is expended.

  6. Operation of marine diesel engines on biogenic fuels: modification of emissions and resulting climate effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzold, Andreas; Lauer, Peter; Fritsche, Uwe; Hasselbach, Jan; Lichtenstern, Michael; Schlager, Hans; Fleischer, Fritz

    2011-12-15

    The modification of emissions of climate-sensitive exhaust compounds such as CO(2), NO(x), hydrocarbons, and particulate matter from medium-speed marine diesel engines was studied for a set of fossil and biogenic fuels. Applied fossil fuels were the reference heavy fuel oil (HFO) and the low-sulfur marine gas oil (MGO); biogenic fuels were palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and animal fat. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the production of biogenic fuels were treated by means of a fuel life cycle analysis which included land use changes associated with the growth of energy plants. Emissions of CO(2) and NO(x) per kWh were found to be similar for fossil fuels and biogenic fuels. PM mass emission was reduced to 10-15% of HFO emissions for all low-sulfur fuels including MGO as a fossil fuel. Black carbon emissions were reduced significantly to 13-30% of HFO. Changes in emissions were predominantly related to particulate sulfate, while differences between low-sulfur fossil fuels and low-sulfur biogenic fuels were of minor significance. GHG emissions from the biogenic fuel life cycle (FLC) depend crucially on energy plant production conditions and have the potential of shifting the overall GHG budget from positive to negative compared to fossil fuels. PMID:22044020

  7. Great expectations. Can international emissions trading deliver an equitable climate regime?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Climate change equity debates tend to focus on achieving a fair and global 'allocation' of emission rights among countries. Allocation proposals typically envision, if implicitly, two purposes for international emissions trading. First, trading is expected to serve as a cost-effective means of promoting compliance with emissions targets. Second, trading is posited as a means to generate financial transfers, typically from industrialized to transitioning and developing countries. This article investigates the common assumption that international emissions trading will effectively serve both of these purposes. We conclude that the two purposes might not be mutually supportive, and that efforts to use international emissions trading as a financial transfer mechanism may potentially undermine cost-effectiveness goals. International emissions trading on a global scale would create new risks in terms of both cost-effectiveness and environmental performance, some of which will be challenging to manage. In particular, uncertainties over market prices and trading eligibility, coupled with the costs of participation, may together be the Achilles heel of some allocation proposals that entail large financial transfers from industrialized to developing countries. Any proposal for an 'equitable' allocation of emission allowances, we conclude, must be cognizant of the risks and costs implied by a reliance on international emissions trading. We offer some suggestions to this end

  8. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

    OpenAIRE

    T. I. E. Veldkamp; S. Eisner; Wada, Y.; J. C. J. H. Aerts; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales,...

  9. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

    OpenAIRE

    T. I. E. Veldkamp; S. Eisner; Wada, Y.; J. C. J. H. Aerts; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global ...

  10. Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate forcers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sand, M.; Berntsen, T. K.; von Salzen, K.; Flanner, M. G.; Langner, J.; Victor, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    There is growing scientific and political interest in the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic emissions on the Arctic. Over recent decades temperatures in the Arctic have increased at twice the global rate, largely as a result of ice-albedo and temperature feedbacks. Although deep cuts in global CO2 emissions are required to slow this warming, there is also growing interest in the potential for reducing short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs; refs ,). Politically, action on SLCFs may be particularly promising because the benefits of mitigation are seen more quickly than for mitigation of CO2 and there are large co-benefits in terms of improved air quality. This Letter is one of the first to systematically quantify the Arctic climate impact of regional SLCFs emissions, taking into account black carbon (BC), sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), organic carbon (OC) and tropospheric ozone (O3), and their transport processes and transformations in the atmosphere. This study extends the scope of previous works by including more detailed calculations of Arctic radiative forcing and quantifying the Arctic temperature response. We find that the largest Arctic warming source is from emissions within the Asian nations owing to the large absolute amount of emissions. However, the Arctic is most sensitive, per unit mass emitted, to SLCFs emissions from a small number of activities within the Arctic nations themselves. A stringent, but technically feasible mitigation scenario for SLCFs, phased in from 2015 to 2030, could cut warming by 0.2 (+/-0.17) K in 2050.

  11. Assessing the effort sharing for greenhouse gas emission reductions in ambitious global climate scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ekholm, T.; Soimakallio, S.; Hoehne, N.; Moltmann, S.; Syri, S.

    2008-11-15

    To reinforce the long-term commitment to climate change mitigation, the post-2012 climate policy framework is aimed to be completed by 2009. The new agreement needs to include a wider participation of parties, and therefore needs to address the effort sharing of countries. The mitigation capabilities and the responsibilities of countries do however vary significantly. This can, in principle, be overcome with a cap-and-trade system, with which the question of equity is addressed trough the allocation of emission allowances. A number of effort sharing schemes have been proposed. Effort sharing however suffers from a fundamental trade-off between detail and transparency on how the emission allocations are calculated. This study addresses this problem by comparing and combining the results from a transparent but simplified effort sharing model EVOC, and a detailed and due to its complexity seemingly non-transparent ETSAP-TIAM energy system model. The aim of the study is to evaluate the goodness of the initial effort sharing, particularly in terms of mitigation costs experienced by different regions in the scenarios. Based on the long-term energy-climate scenarios crafted with the TIAM model, we assess the resulting consequences in emission profiles and the energy system, concentrating especially on regional mitigation costs and emission trading. Two cases of market failures in emission trading are also considered. Finally we compare the mitigation potentials between the two models and estimate the effect of EVOC recalibration on the national emission allowances. The results of the study underline particularly the importance of detailed and reliable assumptions for the mitigation potentials of different countries in the effort sharing process. (orig.)

  12. Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

  13. Climate-driven coral reorganisation influences aggressive behaviour in juvenile coral-reef fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Judith E.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.

    2016-06-01

    Globally, habitat degradation is altering the abundance and diversity of species in a variety of ecosystems. This study aimed to determine how habitat degradation, in terms of changing coral composition under climate change, affected abundance, species richness and aggressive behaviour of juveniles of three damselfishes ( Pomacentrus moluccensis, P. amboinensis and Dischistodus perspicillatus, in order of decreasing reliance on coral). Patch reefs were constructed to simulate two types of reefs: present-day reefs that are vulnerable to climate-induced coral bleaching, and reefs with more bleaching-robust coral taxa, thereby simulating the likely future of coral reefs under a warming climate. Fish communities were allowed to establish naturally on the reefs during the summer recruitment period. Climate-robust reefs had lower total species richness of coral-reef fishes than climate-vulnerable reefs, but total fish abundance was not significantly different between reef types (pooled across all species and life-history stages). The nature of aggressive interactions, measured as the number of aggressive chases, varied according to coral composition; on climate-robust reefs, juveniles used the substratum less often to avoid aggression from competitors, and interspecific aggression became relatively more frequent than intraspecific aggression for juveniles of the coral-obligate P. moluccensis. This study highlights the importance of coral composition as a determinant of behaviour and diversity of coral-reef fishes.

  14. Simulating the Black Saturday 2009 smoke plume with an interactive composition-climate model: Sensitivity to emissions amount, timing, and injection height

    Science.gov (United States)

    Field, Robert D.; Luo, Ming; Fromm, Mike; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Mangeon, Stéphane; Worden, John

    2016-04-01

    We simulated the high-altitude smoke plume from the early February 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in southeastern Australia using the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ModelE2. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first single-plume analysis of biomass burning emissions injected directly into the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) using a full-complexity composition-climate model. We compared simulated carbon monoxide (CO) to a new Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer/Microwave Limb Sounder joint CO retrieval, focusing on the plume's initial transport eastward, anticyclonic circulation to the north of New Zealand, westward transport in the lower stratospheric easterlies, and arrival over Africa at the end of February. Our goal was to determine the sensitivity of the simulated plume to prescribed injection height, emissions amount, and emissions timing from different sources for a full-complexity model when compared to Aura. The most realistic plumes were obtained using injection heights in the UTLS, including one drawn from ground-based radar data. A 6 h emissions pulse or emissions tied to independent estimates of hourly fire behavior produced a more realistic plume in the lower stratosphere compared to the same emissions amount being released evenly over 12 or 24 h. Simulated CO in the plume was highly sensitive to the differences between emissions amounts estimated from the Global Fire Emissions Database and from detailed, ground-based estimates of fire growth. The emissions amount determined not only the CO concentration of the plume but also the proportion of the plume that entered the stratosphere. We speculate that this is due to either or both nonlinear CO loss with a weakened OH sink or plume self-lofting driven by shortwave absorption of the coemitted aerosols.

  15. Operation of Marine Diesel Engines on Biogenic Fuels: Modification of Emissions and Resulting Climate Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Petzold, A.; Lauer, P.; Fritsche, U.; Hasselbach, J.; M. Lichtenstern; Schlager, H.; Fleischer, F.

    2011-01-01

    The modification of emissions of climate-sensitive exhaust compounds such as CO2, NOx, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter from medium-speed marine diesel engines was studied for a set of fossil and biogenic fuels. Applied fossil fuels were the reference heavy fuel oil (HFO) and the low-sulfur marine gas oil (MGO); biogenic fuels were palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and animal fat. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the production of biogenic fuels were treated by means of a fue...

  16. Climate-driven variation in the intensity of a host-symbiont animal interaction along a broad elevation gradient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leandro Meléndez

    Full Text Available Gradients of environmental stress may affect biotic interactions in unpredictable ways responding to climate variation, depending on the abiotic stress tolerance of interacting partners. Here, we study the effect of local climate on the intensity of feather mites in six mountain passerines along a 1400 m elevational gradient characterized by shifting temperature and rainfall. Although obligatory symbionts of warm-blooded organisms are assumed to live in mild and homeothermic environments, those inhabiting external, non-blood-irrigated body portions of the host organism, such as feather mites, are expected to endure exposure to the direct influence of a fluctuating climate. As expected, feather mite intensity declined with elevation in all bird species, a pattern that was also found in cold-adapted passerines that have typical alpine habits. The elevation cline was mainly explained by a positive effect of the average temperature upon mite intensity in five of the six species studied. Precipitation explained less variance in mite intensity than average temperature, and showed a negative correlation in half of the studied species. We found no climate-driven migration of mites along the wings of birds, no replacement of mite species along elevation gradients and no association with available food resources for mites (estimated by the size of the uropygial gland. This study suggests that ectosymbionts of warm-blooded animals may be highly sensitive to climatic variation and become less abundant under stressful environmental conditions, providing empirical evidence of the decline of specialized biotic interactions among animal species at high elevations.

  17. Carbon Emission Right Allocation Under Climate Change%气候变化与碳排放权分配

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    高广生

    2007-01-01

    The scientific fact with respect to climate change shows that human activities have resulted in the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentration. The essential solution to climate change issue is to reduce or eliminate the excessive anthropogenic GHG emissions. Therefore, the allocation of carbon emission right (CER) involves the social economic development, people's life and existence rights of all countries. Based on the substantive issues of climate change, this paper analyses the basic properties of climate resources and CER, discusses the allocation schemes of CER and makes comparison to foreign CER allocation schemes. In addition, it also presents the important factors that affect CER allocation.

  18. Technology Solutions Case Study: Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    J. Williamson and R. Aldrich

    2015-09-01

    To better understand and characterize heating performance, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), monitored seven inverter-driven ASHPs across the northeast United States during the winter of 2013–2014.

  19. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. PMID:25590537

  20. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China—An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely. - Highlights: • 45% Chinese carbon intensity target for 2020 implemented via emissions trading. • 1% GDP/welfare loss in 2020 and 2% in 2030 for a fixed emissions target after 2020. • 0.5 percentage points higher (lower) growth, increases (decreases) climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 by about 0.5 percentage points. • Similar macroeconomic effects for free allocation and full auctioning, but higher reductions in output under full auctioning in ETS sectors. • Restricted linking to EU emissions trading creates at best a small benefit for China

  1. The climate impact of ship NOx emissions: An improved estimate accounting for plume chemistry

    OpenAIRE

    C. D. Holmes; Prather, M. J.; G. C. M. Vinken

    2014-01-01

    Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from maritime shipping produce ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH), which in turn destroy methane (CH4). The balance between this warming (due to O3) and cooling (due to CH4) determines the net effect of ship NOx on climate. Previous estimates of the chemical impact and radiative forcing (RF) of ship NOx have generally assumed that plumes of ship exhaust are instantly diluted into model grid cells spanning hundreds of kilometers, even thou...

  2. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    OpenAIRE

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    2010-01-01

    Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as ...

  3. The climate fund. Some notions on the socio-economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and emission reductions in an international context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The title project investigates the possibility of setting up an international climate fund and the way in which this could be arranged. A climate fund is a potential method to enhance the efficiency and efficacy of the reduction of the increase in the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. It would allow countries to transfer capital, for instance through the here proposed climate fund, and to redistribute the damages caused by global warming. This project focuses on the economic aspects of a climate fund, although some attention will also be given to its political feasibility. The system of tradeable emission permits, of which joint implementation is often seen as a pilot phase, presumes that fixed emission targets exist. In this report the emissions are not prefixed, but optimised in a cost-benefit analysis in which the impact of international capital transfer is examined. In order to determine the impact of international capital transfer on the efficiency and efficacy on optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction, three building blocks are needed. The first block concerns the costs of climate change, or the benefits of climate change control. The second block concerns the costs of emission reduction. The third block is the model to integrate costs and benefits, and calculate the optimal emission control with and without international capital transfers. The project is split into four conceptual phases. In the first phase, a literature survey has been performed of the socio-economic costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reductions, with a particular focus on the international distribution of costs and benefits. In the second phase, the costs and benefits are modelled in the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND). In the third phase the optimal emission reductions are calculated with and without international capital transfers in several game-theoretic settings. (Abstract Truncated)

  4. Responses of non-methane biogenic volatile organic compound emissions to climate change in boreal and subarctic ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faubert, P.

    2010-07-01

    Non-methane biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (BVOCs) have important roles in the global atmospheric chemistry but their feedbacks to climate change are still unknown. This thesis reports one of the first estimates of BVOC emissions from boreal and subarctic ecosystems. Most importantly, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses to four effects of climate change in these ecosystems: (1) the direct effect of warming, and its indirect effects via (2) water table drawdown, (3) change in the vegetation composition, and (4) enhanced UV-B radiation. BVOC emissions were measured using a conventional chamber method in which the compounds were collected on adsorbent and later analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. On a subarctic heath, warming by only 1.9-2.5 degC doubled the monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions. Such a high increase of BVOC emissions under a conservative warming cannot be predicted by the current models, which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions from the Subarctic under climate change. On a subarctic peatland, enhanced UV-B did not affect the BVOC emissions but the water table level exerted the major effect. The water table drawdown experimentally applied on boreal peatland microcosms decreased the emissions of monoterpenes and other VOCs (BVOCs with a lifetime>1 d) for the hollows (wet microsites) and that of all BVOC groups for the lawns (moderately wet microsites). The warming treatment applied on the lawn microcosms decreased the isoprene emission. The removal of vascular plants in the hummock (dry microsites) microcosms decreased the emissions of monoterpenes while the emissions between the microcosms covered with Sphagnum moss and bare peat were not different. In conclusion, the results presented in this thesis indicate that climate change has complex effects on the BVOC emissions. These results make a significant contribution to improving the modeling of BVOC emissions for a better understanding of

  5. Climate driven life histories: the case of the Mediterranean storm petrel.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cecilia Soldatini

    Full Text Available Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time.

  6. Earlier wine-grape ripening driven by climatic warming and drying and management practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, L. B.; Whetton, P. H.; Bhend, J.; Darbyshire, R.; Briggs, P. R.; Barlow, E. W. R.

    2012-04-01

    Trends in phenological phases associated with climate change are widely reported--yet attribution remains rare. Attribution research in biological systems is critical in assisting stakeholders to develop adaptation strategies, particularly if human factors may be exacerbating impacts. Detailed, quantified attribution helps to effectively target adaptation strategies, and counters recent tendencies to overattribute phenological trends to climate shifts. Wine grapes have been ripening earlier in Australia in recent years, often with undesirable impacts. Attribution analysis of detected trends in wine-grape maturity, using time series of up to 64 years in duration, indicates that two climate variables--warming and declines in soil water content--are driving a major portion of this ripening trend. Crop-yield reductions and evolving management practices have probably also contributed to earlier ripening. Potential adaptation options are identified, as some drivers of the trend to earlier maturity can be manipulated through directed management initiatives, such as managing soil moisture and crop yield.

  7. Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTPP); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTPS). Both GTPP and GTPS are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTPP does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTPS is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTPS and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTPS retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP

  8. Aerosol exposure versus aerosol cooling of climate: what is the optimal emission reduction strategy for human health?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Löndahl

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Particles, climate change, and health have thought-provoking interactions. Air pollution is one of the largest environmental problems concerning human health. On the other hand, aerosol particles can have a cooling effect on climate and a reduction of those emissions may result in an increased temperature globally, which in turn may have negative health effects. The objective of this work was to investigate the "total health effects" of aerosol emissions, which include both exposure to particles and consequences for climate change initiated by particles. As a case study the "total health effect" from ship emissions was derived by subtracting the number of deaths caused by exposure with the estimated number of lives saved from the cooling effect of the emissions. The analysis showed that, with current level of scientific understanding, it could not be determined whether ship emissions are negative or positive for human health on a short time scale. This first attempt to approximate the combined effect of particle emissions on health shows that reductions of particulate air pollution will in some cases (black carbon have win-win effects on health and climate, but sometimes also cause a shift from particle exposure-related health effects towards an increasing risk of health consequences from climate change. Thus, measures to reduce aerosol emissions have to be coupled with climate change mitigation actions to achieve a full health benefit on a global level.

  9. Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH from 1860–2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. G. John

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4 since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH4 itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of methane lifetime against loss by tropospheric OH, (τCH4_OH, in a suite of historical (1860–2005 and future Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP simulations (2006–2100, conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3. From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5% increase in τCH4_OH due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NOx emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the τCH4_OH declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH4 growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH4 sink. Sensitivity simulations with CM3 suggest that the aerosol indirect effect (aerosol-cloud interactions plays a significant role in cooling the CM3 climate. The projected decline in aerosols under all RCPs contributes to climate warming over the 21st century, which influences the future evolution of OH concentration and τCH4_OH. Projected changes in τCH4_OH from 2006 to 2100 range from −13% to +4%. The only projected increase occurs in the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5 due to the near-doubling of the CH4 abundance, reflecting a positive

  10. Greenhouse gas emissions trading and complementary policies. Developing a smart mix for ambitious climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.

    2010-06-15

    A debate has - most notably as a result of the introduction of fixed caps within the framework of emissions trading - been raised about the need for using additional instruments of climate and energy policy. A common line of argument is that the targets set within the emissions trading scheme are going to be met with a high degree of certainty, and flexibility among the regulated stakeholders will lead to market-based discovery processes. Additional instruments would only generate additional costs and would therefore have to be rejected. However, closer analysis of these fundamental arguments shows that they are constructed on a very high level of abstraction and sometimes rely on strongly simplifying or idealising assumptions. Their theoretical assumptions are, at least in part, very questionable and do not correspond to conditions in the real world for climate and energy policy. At the same time the debate about policy instruments cannot be held autonomously of the specific context of the problem at hand. In this sense the very extensive (complete) and above all effective decarbonisation of the economies of industrialised countries in a comparatively short time frame is the key basic condition for the analysis, assessment and design of the climate policy mix. Essentially, the question is what the best instruments are for purging the whole economic system almost entirely of CO{sub 2} emissions within a period of only forty years. The introduction of emissions trading schemes for greenhouse gases in an increasing number of OECD countries undoubtedly constitutes an important landmark of climate policy. They: - provide a high degree of certainty in terms of meeting targets; - create, on the basis of a standardised price signal, a clearing mechanism for the broad spectrum of emission reduction options close to the market, at least in the short to medium term; and - represent, by means of linking, an interesting option in terms of the globalisation of climate policy

  11. How emissions, climate, and land use change will impact mid-century air quality over the United States: a focus on effects at National Parks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, M. Val; Heald, C. L.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Tilmes, S.; Emmons, L. K.; Schichtel, B. A.

    2014-10-01

    We use a global coupled chemistry-climate-land model (CESM) to assess the integrated effect of climate, emissions and land use changes on annual surface O3 and PM2.5 on the United States with a focus on National Parks (NPs) and wilderness areas, using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 projections. We show that, when stringent domestic emission controls are applied, air quality is predicted to improve across the US, except surface O3 over the western and central US under RCP8.5 conditions, where rising background ozone counteracts domestic emissions reductions. Under the RCP4.5, surface O3 is substantially reduced (about 5 ppb), with daily maximum 8 h averages below the primary US EPA NAAQS of 75 ppb (and even 65 ppb) in all the NPs. PM2.5 is significantly reduced in both scenarios (4 μg m-3; ~50%), with levels below the annual US EPA NAAQS of 12 μg m-3 across all the NPs; visibility is also improved (10-15 deciviews; >75 km in visibility range), although some parks over the western US (40-74% of total sites in the US) may not reach the 2050 target to restore visibility to natural conditions by 2064. We estimate that climate-driven increases in fire activity may dominate summertime PM2.5 over the western US, potentially offsetting the large PM2.5 reductions from domestic emission controls, and keeping visibility at present-day levels in many parks. Our study suggests that air quality in 2050 will be primarily controlled by anthropogenic emission patterns. However, climate and land use changes alone may lead to a substantial increase in surface O3 (2-3 ppb) with important consequences for O3 air quality and ecosystem degradation at the US NPs. Our study illustrates the need to consider the effects of changes in climate, vegetation, and fires in future air quality management and planning and emission policy making.

  12. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E.; Wu, Weixiang

    2016-04-01

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg‑1 dry weight soil, dws season‑1 to 112.2 mg kg‑1 dws season‑1) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change.

  13. Mitigating methane emission from paddy soil with rice-straw biochar amendment under projected climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xingguo; Sun, Xue; Wang, Cheng; Wu, Mengxiong; Dong, Da; Zhong, Ting; Thies, Janice E; Wu, Weixiang

    2016-01-01

    Elevated global temperatures and increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere associated with climate change will exert profound effects on rice cropping systems, particularly on their greenhouse gas emitting potential. Incorporating biochar into paddy soil has been shown previously to reduce methane (CH4) emission from paddy rice under ambient temperature and CO2. We examined the ability of rice straw-derived biochar to reduce CH4 emission from paddy soil under elevated temperature and CO2 concentrations expected in the future. Adding biochar to paddy soil reduced CH4 emission under ambient conditions and significantly reduced emissions by 39.5% (ranging from 185.4 mg kg(-1) dry weight soil, dws season(-1) to 112.2 mg kg(-1) dws season(-1)) under simultaneously elevated temperature and CO2. Reduced CH4 release was mainly attributable to the decreased activity of methanogens along with the increased CH4 oxidation activity and pmoA gene abundance of methanotrophs. Our findings highlight the valuable services of biochar amendment for CH4 control from paddy soil in a future that will be shaped by climate change. PMID:27090814

  14. Testing a method for analyzing the effect of parameter change in climate driven ecological systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Moolenaar, H.E.; Grasman, J.; Selten, F.M.; Gee, de M.

    2007-01-01

    In this study, we consider a herbivore-predator metapopulation model, consisting of two patches. Only the herbivores are allowed to migrate between the patches. Furthermore, the intrinsic growth rates of the herbivores depend on climatic fluctuations. Our objective is the conservation of the herbivo

  15. Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pellissier, Loïc; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee;

    2016-01-01

    High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since ...

  16. Sensitivity of water scarcity events to ENSO-driven climate variability at the global scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldkamp, T.I.E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Ward, P.J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consum

  17. Allowable CO2 emissions based on regional and impact-related climate targets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seneviratne, Sonia I; Donat, Markus G; Pitman, Andy J; Knutti, Reto; Wilby, Robert L

    2016-01-28

    Global temperature targets, such as the widely accepted limit of an increase above pre-industrial temperatures of two degrees Celsius, may fail to communicate the urgency of reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The translation of CO2 emissions into regional- and impact-related climate targets could be more powerful because such targets are more directly aligned with individual national interests. We illustrate this approach using regional changes in extreme temperatures and precipitation. These scale robustly with global temperature across scenarios, and thus with cumulative CO2 emissions. This is particularly relevant for changes in regional extreme temperatures on land, which are much greater than changes in the associated global mean. PMID:26789252

  18. A Cancun stake: to revitalize climate cooperation while improving transparency about national greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having recalled the instruments which are available for the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) to ensure an as much as transparent as possible information transmission between states about greenhouse gas emissions, this article questions the way the Copenhagen agreement can be implemented while considering the discussions which took place. It draws lessons from other previous examples of international cooperation: WTO agreements, the Clean Development Mechanism. Three propositions are made in the perspective of the Cancun conference: to create a reliable world inventory of emissions, to organize cooperation with countries wishing to define statistics for their emission monitoring, and to reinforce transparency and control of measures (with the MRV criteria) which are subsidized by the international community

  19. Addressing (some) Big Data Challenges in Climate Science: Cross-Sciences Collaborative Efforts Driven By Eudat Emerging Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Page, C.; Budich, R.; Meeres, Y.; Coutin, S.; Dima, E.; Hinrichs, E.; Lautenschlager, M.

    2014-12-01

    As climate model horizontal and spatial resolutions are getting higher, in line with increasing available computing power on High Performance Computing (HPC) systems, the amount of data generated by climate simulations is getting very large. Our road toward exascale will continue to increase the generated data volumes to be analyzed, even when reducing data output to coarser output grids before storage and analysis. These problems are not confined to the climate scientific community, but it is shared among several scientific fields, such as high-particle physics, linguistics, and seismology, among others. Within the framework of the European EUDAT project, several emerging services are being developed and deployed operationally to enhance collaborative and federated infrastructures that can scale to very large data volumes, driven by scientific communities' needs and international collaborations notably with the Research Data Alliance (RDA) and through Working Groups involving EUDAT partners and international experts. One of these Working Groups is focusing on Workflows and their execution near the data storage in a federated infrastructure, and these workflows will also be using EUDAT services. EUDAT current and upcoming services will be presented, with a focus in how these services will be useful to the climate community ESGF infrastructure in a Big Data era, to perform data analyses that are not hampered by limitations simply because of too large data volumes given today's tools and infrastructures. A generic interface/protocol for abstraction of specific communities federated data environments, enabling cross-communities data sharing and collaboration, will also be presented. This study was funded by the EU project EUDAT funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Research Programme under the grant agreement 283304.

  20. A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glomsrød, Solveig; Wei, Taoyuan; Aamaas, Borgar; Lund, Marianne T; Samset, Bjørn H

    2016-10-15

    Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is often thought to be at odds with economic growth and poverty reduction. Using an integrated assessment modeling approach, we find that China can cap CO2 emissions at 2015 level while sustaining economic growth and reducing the urban-rural income gap by a third by 2030. As a result, the Chinese economy becomes less dependent on exports and investments, as household consumption emerges as a driver behind economic growth, in line with current policy priorities. The resulting accumulated greenhouse gas emissions reduction 2016-2030 is about 60billionton (60Mg) CO2e. A CO2 tax combined with income re-distribution initially leads to a modest warming due to reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions. However, the net effect is eventually cooling when the effect of reduced CO2 emissions dominates due to the long-lasting climate response of CO2. The net reduction in global temperature for the remaining part of this century is about 0.03±0.02°C, corresponding in magnitude to the cooling from avoiding one year of global CO2 emissions. PMID:27295595

  1. Assessment of biomass open burning emissions in Indonesia and potential climate forcing impact

    Science.gov (United States)

    Permadi, Didin Agustian; Kim Oanh, Nguyen Thi

    2013-10-01

    This paper presents an emission inventory (EI) for biomass open burning (OB) sources including forest, agro-residue and municipal solid waste (MSW) in Indonesia for year 2007. The EI covered toxic air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHGs) and was presented as annual and monthly average for every district, and further on a grid of 0.25° × 0.25°. A rigorous analysis of activity data and emission factor ranges was done to produce the low, best and high emission estimates for each species. Development of EI methodology for MSW OB which, to our best knowledge, has not been presented in detail in the literature was a focus of this paper. The best estimates of biomass OB emission of toxic air pollutants for the country, in Gg, were: 9.6 SO2; 98 NOx; 7411 CO; 335 NMVOC; 162 NH3; 439 PM10; 357 PM2.5; 24 BC; and 147 OC. The best emission estimates of GHGs, in Gg, were: 401 CH4, 57,247 CO2; and 3.6 N2O. The low and high values of the emission estimates for different species were found to range from -86% to +260% of the corresponding best estimates. Crop residue OB contributed more than 80% of the total biomass OB emissions, followed by forest fire of 2-12% (not including peat soil fire emission) and MSW (1-8%). An inter-annual active fires count for Indonesia showed relatively low values in 2007 which may be attributed to the high rainfall intensity under the influence of La Niña climate pattern in the year. Total estimated net climate forcing from OB in Indonesia was 110 (20 year horizon) and 73 (100 year horizon) Tg CO2 equivalents which is around 0.9-1.1% of that reported for the global biomass OB for both time horizons. The spatial distribution showed higher emissions in large urban areas in Java and Sumatra Island, while the monthly emissions indicated higher values during the dry months of August-October.

  2. Electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS semiconductor quantum dot

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quitsch, Wolf; Kuemmell, Tilmar; Bacher, Gerd [Werkstoffe der Elektrotechnik and CENIDE, Universitaet Duisburg-Essen, Bismarckstrasse 81, 47057 Duisburg (Germany); Gust, Arne; Kruse, Carsten; Hommel, Detlef [Institut fuer Festkoerperphysik, Universitaet Bremen, Otto-Hahn-Allee 1, 28334 Bremen (Germany)

    2014-07-15

    We demonstrate electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS single quantum dot embedded in a resonant cavity light emitting diode. Patterned Pd/Au top contacts are used to inject the charge carriers locally. Single quantum dot electroluminescence is obtained at T = 4 K from nanoapertures lithographically defined in the top contacts. At low current densities, antibunching with a value of g{sup (2)}(0) = 0.16 is achieved. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  3. Electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe single quantum dot at 200 K

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Quitsch, Wolf; Kümmell, Tilmar; Bacher, Gerd [Werkstoffe der Elektrotechnik and CENIDE, Universität Duisburg-Essen, Bismarckstraße 81, 47057 Duisburg (Germany); Gust, Arne; Kruse, Carsten; Hommel, Detlef [Institut für Festkörperphysik, Universität Bremen, Otto-Hahn-Allee 1, 28334 Bremen (Germany)

    2014-09-01

    High temperature operation of an electrically driven single photon emitter based on a single epitaxial quantum dot is reported. CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS quantum dots are embedded into a p-i-n diode architecture providing almost background free excitonic and biexcitonic electroluminescence from individual quantum dots through apertures in the top contacts. Clear antibunching with g{sup 2}(τ = 0) = 0.28 ± 0.20 can be tracked up to T = 200 K, representing the highest temperature for electrically triggered single photon emission from a single quantum dot device.

  4. Electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS semiconductor quantum dot

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We demonstrate electrically driven single photon emission from a CdSe/ZnSSe/MgS single quantum dot embedded in a resonant cavity light emitting diode. Patterned Pd/Au top contacts are used to inject the charge carriers locally. Single quantum dot electroluminescence is obtained at T = 4 K from nanoapertures lithographically defined in the top contacts. At low current densities, antibunching with a value of g(2)(0) = 0.16 is achieved. (copyright 2014 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  5. High Resolution Modelling of Climate Change Impacts on Water Supply and Demand, Crop Nutrient Usage and GHG emissions, Similkameen Watershed, British Columbia, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirmasoudi, S.; Byrne, J. M.; Kroebel, R.; MacDonald, R. J.; Johnson, D. L.; McKenzie, R. H.

    2015-12-01

    The Similkameen watershed in southern British Columbia, Canada is expected to warm substantially in the coming decades. A higher proportion of winter rain to snow and an earlier onset of spring snowmelt are likely to result in lower spring stream flow peaks. The reduction in winter water storage, combined with longer, warmer, and drier summers, poses a challenge for water resources in an irrigation-based agricultural watershed. There are already substantial irrigation developments, and water demands are expected to increase to maintain current agricultural production, further stressing a shrinking summer water supply. Agriculture releases significant amounts of CO2, CH4 and N2O to the atmosphere, accounting for approximately 8% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Canada, excluding CO2 emissions from fuels. Agricultural GHG fluxes are complex but the active management of agricultural systems offers possibilities for mitigating GHG emissions. Although GHG emissions derived from soil have been researched for several decades, there are still geographic regions and agricultural systems that have not been well characterized. This work will address a series of questions for the Similkameen watershed. For a range of climate scenarios, we will: (i) use the GENESYS (GENerate Earth SYstems Science input) hydrometeorological model to simulate historical and future water supplies; (ii) link GENESYS and AquaCrop models to assess climate driven changes in water requirement and associated crop productivity; and (iii) link GENESYS and HOLOS (whole-farm model and software program that estimates GHG emissions) to estimate farm and regional level GHG emissions and seasonal nutrient balance for the crops in the watershed.

  6. Updating soil CO2 emission experiments to assess climate change effects and extracellular soil respiration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidal Vazquez, Eva; Paz Ferreiro, Jorge

    2014-05-01

    Experimental work is an essential component in training future soil scientists. Soil CO2 emission is a key issue because of the potential impacts of this process on the greenhouse effect. The amount of organic carbon stored in soils worldwide is about 1600 gigatons (Gt) compared to 750 Gt in the atmosphere mostly in the form of CO2. Thus, if soil respiration increased slightly so that just 10% of the soil carbon pool was converted to CO2, atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere could increase by one-fifth. General circulation model predictions indicate atmosphere warming between 2 and 5°C (IPCC 2007) and precipitation changes ranging from about -15 to +30%. Traditionally, release of CO2 was thought to occur only in an intracellular environment; however, recently CO2 emissions have been in irradiated soil, in the absence of microorganisms (Maire et al., 2013). Moreover, soil plays a role in the stabilization of respiration enzymes promoting CO2 release after microorganism death. Here, we propose to improve CO2 emission experiments commonly used in soil biology to investigate: 1) effects of climatic factors on soil CO2 emissions, and 2) rates of extracellular respiration in soils and how these rates are affected by environmental factors. Experiment designed to assess the effect of climate change can be conducted either in field conditions under different ecosystems (forest, grassland, cropland) or in a greenhouse using simple soil chambers. The interactions of climate change in CO2 emissions are investigated using climate-manipulation experiment that can be adapted to field or greenhouse conditions (e.g. Mc Daniel et al., 2013). The experimental design includes a control plot (without soil temperature and rain manipulation) a warming treatment as well as wetting and/or drying treatments. Plots are warmed to the target temperature by procedures such as infrared heaters (field) or radiant cable (greenhouse). To analyze extracellular respiration, rates of CO2

  7. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    OpenAIRE

    Juan A Añel; Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Paul J Hearty; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of similar to 500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere a...

  8. Climate versus emission drivers of methane lifetime from 1860–2100

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Naik

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available With a more-than-doubling in the atmospheric abundance of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4 since preindustrial times, and indications of renewed growth following a leveling off in recent years, questions arise as to future trends and resulting climate and public health impacts from continued growth without mitigation. Changes in atmospheric methane lifetime are determined by factors which regulate the abundance of OH, the primary methane removal mechanism, including changes in CH4 itself. We investigate the role of emissions of short-lived species and climate in determining the evolution of tropospheric methane lifetime in a suite of historical (1860–2005 and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP simulations (2006–2100, conducted with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3. From preindustrial to present, CM3 simulates an overall 5% increase in CH4 lifetime due to a doubling of the methane burden which offsets coincident increases in nitrogen oxide (NOx emissions. Over the last two decades, however, the methane lifetime declines steadily, coinciding with the most rapid climate warming and observed slow-down in CH4 growth rates, reflecting a possible negative feedback through the CH4 sink. The aerosol indirect effect plays a significant role in the CM3 climate and thus in the future evolution of the methane lifetime, due to the rapid projected decline of aerosols under all four RCPs. In all scenarios, the methane lifetime decreases (by 5–13% except for the most extreme warming case (RCP8.5, where it increases by 4% due to the near-doubling of the CH4 abundance, reflecting a positive feedback on the climate system. In the RCP4.5 scenario changes in short-lived climate forcing agents reinforce climate warming and enhance OH, leading to a more-than-doubling of the decrease in methane lifetime from 2006 to 2100 relative to a simulation in which only well-mixed greenhouse gases are

  9. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  10. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  11. A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP. (letter)

  12. A reconstruction of policy-driven innovations to reduce Dutch car emissions 1960-2010

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Walta, L.; Annema, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    One of the main drawbacks of mobility are the traffic-related emissions of air pollutants – e.g. nitrogen oxides (NOx) – and greenhouse gases – e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2). In the past governments all over the world aimed at technological innovations to limit the emissions from traffic. Using insight

  13. Wavebreaking-induced Transmitted Emission of Attosecond Extreme-ultraviolet Pulses from Laser-driven Overdense Plasmas

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Zi-Yu; Pukhov, Alexander

    2015-01-01

    We present a new mechanism of attosecond extreme-ultraviolet (XUV) pulses generation from a relativistic laser-driven overdense plasma surfaces. Unlike high-order harmonic generation by reflection of a laser from the front target surface, the emission is in the transmitted direction with frequencies of local plasma frequency and its harmonics. Through simulations and analysis, we demonstrate that the ultrashort XUV emission is predominantly due to the strong plasma- density oscillation in the front skin layer induced by wavebreaking. This mechanism provides new insights into the senarios of harmonic generation from solid surfaces and the dynamics of laser- plasma interactions. It also offers a new method of attosecond XUV pulses generation which may find extensive applications in a number of fields.

  14. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaugrand, G.; Edwards, M.; Brander, Keith;

    2008-01-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt...... ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity and...... carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod...

  15. Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

  16. Climate-driven coral reorganisation influences aggressive behaviour in juvenile coral-reef fishes

    OpenAIRE

    Kok, Judith E.; Graham, Nicholas Anthony James; Hoogenboom, Mia O.

    2016-01-01

    Globally, habitat degradation is altering the abundance and diversity of species in a variety of ecosystems. This study aimed to determine how habitat degradation, in terms of changing coral composition under climate change, affected abundance, species richness and aggressive behaviour of juveniles of three damselfishes (Pomacentrus moluccensis, P. amboinensis and Dischistodus perspicillatus, in order of decreasing reliance on coral). Patch reefs were constructed to simulate two types of reef...

  17. Impacts of climate-driven changes on coastal lagoon ecosystem and related good and services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solidoro, Cosimo; Libralato, Simone; Melaku Canu, Donata; Cossarini, Gianpiero; Giorgi, FIlippo

    2014-05-01

    Effects of IPCC climate change scenarios on a temperate coastal lagoon ecosystem, the lagoon of Venice (Italy), along with goods and services provided by this ecosystem are assessed though a downscaling experiment linking regional atmospheric model to local hydrodynamical, biogeochemical, ecosystem and target species population dynamic models. Simulations of spatio-temporal dynamics of biogeochemical properties provide evidence of significant impacts of climate change. Under both the A2 and B2 scenarios we observe a modification of the seasonal precipitation pattern which affects the timing of nutrient inputs to the lagoon and causes a reduction in plankton productivity. Simulations indicate that this changes propagate -along the food web through a multi-path cascade and that overall ecosystem good and services resulting from climatic scenarios significantly differ depending on the dynamics of the extremes (yearly maximum) values. Changes in the nutrient load maximum discharge (scenario A2) favors primary producers that have higher maximum values (peaks) that propagate up in the food web to groups directly related to the grazing food chain. Conversely, small modifications of the timing of the nutrient peaks (as in B2 scenario) implies less exploitation of nutrients by primary producers due to temperature limitations and the enhancement of the groups in the food web that are more related to detritus-based food chain. This implies significant differences on on fisheries landings in future scenarios, even assuming same fishing effort.. Ecological indicators highlighted also divergent changes in food web biodiversity and complexity in the two future scenarios. Simulations also shows that economic activity directly related to target species, such as clam aquaculture activity will suffer , and point to the need for management policies to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.

  18. Climate-driven sediment aggradation and incision since the late Pleistocene in the NW Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dey, Saptarshi; Thiede, Rasmus C.; Schildgen, Taylor F.; Wittmann, Hella; Bookhagen, Bodo; Scherler, Dirk; Jain, Vikrant; Strecker, Manfred R.

    2016-09-01

    Deciphering the response of sediment routing systems to climatic forcing is fundamental for understanding the impacts of climate change on landscape evolution. In the Kangra Basin (northwest Sub-Himalaya, India), upper Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial fills and fluvial terraces record periodic fluctuations of sediment supply and transport capacity on timescales of 103 to 105 yr. To evaluate the potential influence of climate change on these fluctuations, we compare the timing of aggradation and incision phases recorded within remnant alluvial fans and terraces with climate archives. New surface-exposure dating of six terrace levels with in-situ cosmogenic 10Be indicates the onset of incision phases. Two terrace surfaces from the highest level (T1) sculpted into the oldest preserved alluvial fan (AF1) date back to 53.4 ± 3.2 ka and 43.0 ± 2.7 ka (1σ). T2 surfaces sculpted into the remnants of AF1 have exposure ages of 18.6 ± 1.2 ka and 15.3 ± 0.9 ka, while terraces sculpted into the upper Pleistocene-Holocene fan (AF2) provide ages of 9.3 ± 0.4 ka (T3), 7.1 ± 0.4 ka (T4), 5.2 ± 0.4 ka (T5) and 3.6 ± 0.2 ka (T6). Together with previously published OSL ages yielding the timing of aggradation, we find a correlation between variations in sediment transport with oxygen-isotope records from regions affected by the Indian Summer Monsoon. During periods of increased monsoon intensity and post-Last Glacial Maximum glacial retreat, aggradation occurred in the Kangra Basin, likely due to high sediment flux, whereas periods of weakened monsoon intensity or lower sediment supply coincide with incision.

  19. Contribution of physical modelling to climate-driven landslide hazard mapping: an alpine test site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandromme, R.; Desramaut, N.; Baills, A.; Hohmann, A.; Grandjean, G.; Sedan, O.; Mallet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this work is to develop a methodology for integrating climate change scenarios into quantitative hazard assessment and especially their precipitation component. The effects of climate change will be different depending on both the location of the site and the type of landslide considered. Indeed, mass movements can be triggered by different factors. This paper describes a methodology to address this issue and shows an application on an alpine test site. Mechanical approaches represent a solution for quantitative landslide susceptibility and hazard modeling. However, as the quantity and the quality of data are generally very heterogeneous at a regional scale, it is necessary to take into account the uncertainty in the analysis. In this perspective, a new hazard modeling method is developed and integrated in a program named ALICE. This program integrates mechanical stability analysis through a GIS software taking into account data uncertainty. This method proposes a quantitative classification of landslide hazard and offers a useful tool to gain time and efficiency in hazard mapping. However, an expertise approach is still necessary to finalize the maps. Indeed it is the only way to take into account some influent factors in slope stability such as heterogeneity of the geological formations or effects of anthropic interventions. To go further, the alpine test site (Barcelonnette area, France) is being used to integrate climate change scenarios into ALICE program, and especially their precipitation component with the help of a hydrological model (GARDENIA) and the regional climate model REMO (Jacob, 2001). From a DEM, land-cover map, geology, geotechnical data and so forth the program classifies hazard zones depending on geotechnics and different hydrological contexts varying in time. This communication, realized within the framework of Safeland project, is supported by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological

  20. Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Long-term climate experiments up to the year 2300 have been conducted using two full-scale complex Earth system models (ESMs), CESM1(BGC) and MIROC-ESM, for a CO2 emissions reduction pathway, termed Z650, where annual CO2 emissions peak at 11 PgC in 2020, decline by 50% every 30 years, and reach zero in 2160. The results have been examined by focusing on the approximate linear relationship between the temperature increase and cumulative CO2 emissions. Although the temperature increase is nearly proportional to the cumulative CO2 emissions in both models, this relationship does not necessarily provide a robust basis for the restriction of CO2 emissions because it is substantially modulated by non-CO2 forcing. CO2-induced warming, estimated from the atmospheric CO2 concentrations in the models, indicates an approximate compensation of nonlinear changes between fast-mode responses to concentration changes at less than 10 years and slow-mode response at more than 100 years due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. In this estimate, CESM1(BGC) closely approximates a linear trend of 1.7 °C per 1000 PgC, whereas MIROC-ESM shows a deviation toward higher temperatures after the emissions peak, from 1.8 °C to 2.4 °C per 1000 PgC over the range of 400–850 PgC cumulative emissions corresponding to years 2000–2050. The evolution of temperature under zero emissions, 2160–2300, shows a slight decrease of about 0.1 °C per century in CESM1(BGC), but remains almost constant in MIROC-ESM. The fast-mode response toward the equilibrium state decreases with a decrease in the airborne fraction owing to continued CO2 uptake (carbon cycle inertia), whereas the slow-mode response results in more warming owing to continued heat uptake (thermal inertia). Several specific differences are noted between the two models regarding the degree of this compensation and in some key regional aspects associated with sustained warming and long-term climate risks. Overall, elevated temperatures

  1. Review of methane and nitrous oxide emission factors for manure management in cold climates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The literature study reported here forms part of an overall objective to review the methods for estimating the greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector. In this report the focus is on the CH4 and N2O emissions arising from animal manure management. The IPCC methodology and default parameters are critically reviewed in order to establish their appropriateness under Swedish climatic and agricultural conditions. There are few reported studies which consider the emissions of CH4 and N2O from animal manure storage under climatic conditions corresponding to those in Sweden. Studies based on comprehensive, long-term field measurements are even scarcer. This gives a limited basis for recommending new emissions factors or other parameters. There is, however, support for updating some of the parameter values. Recommended changes are summarised in the report. Recommendations are offered on the principle that the IPCC defaults are to be kept unless there is reasonable support for deviation from these. This is done despite the observation that, in some cases, the IPCC defaults are themselves not well supported by published literature. The IPCC methodology consists of a relatively simple model, which aggregates several complex and dynamic influences. An alternate modelling approach has been identified for quantifying methane emissions from slurry systems. This model has a fundamental basis and, with appropriate input information could be employed for estimating Swedish emissions. Another factor, arising in this review, is the importance of the distribution of animals among the management systems. According to the IPCC criteria a portion of the systems which are currently viewed, in the Swedish Inventory, as 'Solid' systems should in fact fall under 'Liquid/Slurry' systems. This may have a significant effect on the overall balance of CH4 and N2O emissions. Potentials for improving the accuracy of Swedish emission estimates are identified. The need for studies and

  2. Towards a climate-driven dengue decision support system for Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Cazelles, Bernard; Paul, Richard; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Environmental explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to

  3. Mamizu climate policy: an evaluation of Japanese carbon emissions reduction targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    This letter evaluates Japan's so-called 'Mamizu' climate policies proposed in mid-2009 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the Japanese economy for short-term and long-term targets. The letter uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future Japanese population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization consistent with the targets and various rates of economic growth). Both approaches indicate that the Japanese economy would have to achieve rates of decarbonization of 2.6% to meet a 2020 target of reducing emissions by 15% below 2005 levels, and 5.0% to meet a 2050 target of an 80% reduction below 2005 levels. A target of 25% below 1990 emissions proposed by the opposition party (which subsequently formed a government following elections in August 2009) implies a rate of decarbonization of 4.6% annually to 2020. The letter argues that international criticism of Japanese Mamizu climate policy proposals as being too weak was unfounded, and if anything, the proposals may have been too ambitious. In either case, climate policy would be strengthened through the support of a diversity of approaches to decarbonization.

  4. Nitrous oxide emission budgets and land-use-driven hotspots for organic soils in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leppelt, T; Dechow, R; Gebbert, S;

    2014-01-01

    soils. We conducted a meta-study with a total amount of 659 annual N2O measurements, which was used to derive separate models for different land use types. We applied our models to available, spatially explicit input driver maps to upscale N2O emissions at European level and compared the inventory with...... relationship with the tested drivers. The total inventory for direct N2O emissions from organic soils in Europe amount up to 149.5 Gg N2O-N a−1, which also included fluxes from forest and peat extraction sites and exceeds the inventory calculated by IPCC emission factors of 87.4 Gg N2O-N a−1. N2O emissions......Organic soils are a main source of direct emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O), an important greenhouse gas (GHG). Observed N2O emissions from organic soils are highly variable in space and time, which causes high uncertainties in national emission inventories. Those uncertainties could be reduced when...

  5. From Oil Crisis to Climate Change. Understanding CO2 Emission Trends in IEA Countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    OECD CO2 emissions from fuel combustion increased 13% between 1990 and 2001. This signals an important shift since, over the 1973 to 1990 period, emissions only increased by 3.4%. As a result, CO2 emissions from energy use (fuel combustion) contributed 81.1% of total OECD greenhouse gas emissions in 2001 compared to 77.7% in 1990. As these figures make clear, reducing CO2 emissions from fuel combustion constitutes a key challenge to combat climate change. Developing and successfully implementing the most efficient policies for reducing CO2 emissions requires a good understanding of how factors such as income, prices, demography, economic structure, lifestyle, climate, energy efficiency and fuel mix affect energy use and resulting CO2 emissions. This paper presents selected results from the analysis of CO2 developments included in the IEA publication 'From Oil Crisis to Climate Challenge: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries'. The paper gives a brief overview of aggregate CO2 emission trends and of how recent developments in selected IEA countries compare to emissions levels implied by the Kyoto targets. A deeper understanding of the aggregate trends is provided by showing results from a decomposition analysis and by discussing developments in key end-use sectors. The full publication presents a more detailed analysis of how various factors have shaped energy use patterns and CO2 emissions since 1973. The analysis draws on a newly developed database with detailed information on energy use in the manufacturing, household, service and transport sectors. The database represents the most disaggregated information available on a consistent basis across countries and sectors. The study uses quantitative measures to illustrate the forces that drive or restrain energy use. These measures - or indicators - include: activities such as manufacturing output or heated-floor-area of homes; structural developments such as changes in manufacturing output mix or changes in the

  6. Tracking the CME-driven shock wave on 2012 March 5 and radio triangulation of associated radio emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    We present a multiwavelength study of the 2012 March 5 solar eruptive event, with an emphasis on the radio triangulation of the associated radio bursts. The main points of the study are reconstruction of the propagation of shock waves driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs) using radio observations and finding the relative positions of the CME, the CME-driven shock wave, and its radio signatures. For the first time, radio triangulation is applied to different types of radio bursts in the same event and performed in a detailed way using goniopolarimetric observations from STEREO/Waves and WIND/Waves spacecraft. The event on 2012 March 5 was associated with a X1.1 flare from the NOAA AR 1429 situated near the northeast limb, accompanied by a full halo CME and a radio event comprising long-lasting interplanetary type II radio bursts. The results of the three-dimensional reconstruction of the CME (using SOHO/LASCO, STEREO COR, and HI observations), and modeling with the ENLIL cone model suggest that the CME-driven shock wave arrived at 1 AU at about 12:00 UT on March 7 (as observed by SOHO/CELIAS). The results of radio triangulation show that the source of the type II radio burst was situated on the southern flank of the CME. We suggest that the interaction of the shock wave and a nearby coronal streamer resulted in the interplanetary type II radio emission.

  7. Climate and health impacts of US emissions reductions consistent with 2 °C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Lee, Yunha; Faluvegi, Greg

    2016-05-01

    An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 °C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies (for example, refs ,), but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 °C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid ~0.03 °C global warming in 2030 (0.15 °C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid ~0.05-0.07 °C 2030 warming (~0.25 °C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent ~175,000 premature deaths, with ~22,000 (11,000-96,000 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent ~120,000 premature deaths and ~14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at ~US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050 billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming ~5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.

  8. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; van Putten, Ingrid E; Pecl, Gretta T

    2016-07-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species - or range shifts - across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of individual species. The ecological effects of marine range shifts on ecosystem structure and functioning, as well as human coastal communities, can be large, yet remain difficult to anticipate and manage. Here, we use qualitative modelling of system feedback to understand the cumulative impacts of multiple species shifts in south-eastern Australia, a global hotspot for ocean warming. We identify range-shifting species that can induce trophic cascades and affect ecosystem dynamics and productivity, and evaluate the potential effectiveness of alternative management interventions to mitigate these impacts. Our results suggest that the negative ecological impacts of multiple simultaneous range shifts generally add up. Thus, implementing whole-of-ecosystem management strategies and regular monitoring of range-shifting species of ecological concern are necessary to effectively intervene against undesirable consequences of marine range shifts at the regional scale. Our study illustrates how modelling system feedback with only limited qualitative information about ecosystem structure and range-shifting species can predict ecological consequences of multiple co-occurring range shifts, guide ecosystem-based adaptation to climate change and help prioritise future research and monitoring. PMID:26990671

  9. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Celine; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-15

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  10. Building America Case Study: Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates - Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Vermont

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2015-09-01

    New inverter-driven ASHPs are gaining ground in colder climates. These systems operate at sub-zero temperatures without the use of electric resistance backup. There are still uncertainties, however, about cold-climate capacity and efficiency in cold weather and questions such as measuring: power consumption, supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures, and air flow through the indoor fan coil. CARB observed a wide range of operating efficiencies and outputs from site to site. Maximum capacities were found to be generally in line with manufacturer's claims as outdoor temperatures fell to -10 degrees F. The reasons for the wide range in heating performance likely include: low indoor air flow rates, poor placement of outdoor units, relatively high return air temperatures, thermostat set back, integration with existing heating systems, and occupants limiting indoor fan speed. Even with lower efficiencies than published in other studies, most of the heat pumps here still provide heat at lower cost than oil, propane, or certainly electric resistance systems.

  11. The potential for climate-driven bathymetric range shifts: sustained temperature and pressure exposures on a marine ectotherm, Palaemonetes varians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, J P; Thatje, S; Cottin, D; Oliphant, A; Brown, A; Shillito, B; Ravaux, J; Hauton, C

    2015-11-01

    Range shifts are of great importance as a response for species facing climate change. In the light of current ocean-surface warming, many studies have focused on the capacity of marine ectotherms to shift their ranges latitudinally. Bathymetric range shifts offer an important alternative, and may be the sole option for species already at high latitudes or those within enclosed seas; yet relevant data are scant. Hydrostatic pressure (HP) and temperature have wide ranging effects on physiology, importantly acting in synergy thermodynamically, and therefore represent key environmental constraints to bathymetric migration. We present data on transcriptional regulation in a shallow-water marine crustacean (Palaemonetes varians) at atmospheric and high HP following 168-h exposures at three temperatures across the organisms' thermal scope, to establish the potential physiological limit to bathymetric migration by neritic fauna. We observe changes in gene expression indicative of cellular macromolecular damage, disturbances in metabolic pathways and a lack of acclimation after prolonged exposure to high HP. Importantly, these effects are ameliorated (less deleterious) at higher temperatures, and exacerbated at lower temperatures. These data, alongside previously published behavioural and heat-shock analyses, have important implications for our understanding of the potential for climate-driven bathymetric range shifts. PMID:26716003

  12. Decomposition analysis of CO2 emission in long-term climate stabilization scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    To achieve the stabilization of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere, the international community will need to intensify its long-term efforts. Many EU countries have released national long-term scenarios toward 2050, and their ambitious targets for CO2 emission reduction are aiming at a decrease of more than 50% of today's emission. In April 2004, Japan began a research project on its long-term climate policy. This paper discusses the long-term scenarios in other countries and the medium-term scenarios in Japan to support the development of a Japan's long-term climate stabilization scenario. In this study, CO2 emission is decomposed with an extended Kaya identity (indexes: CO2 capture and storage, carbon intensity, energy efficiency, energy intensity, economic activity) and a Reduction Balance Table is developed. In order to achieve the ambitious target of a 60-80% reduction, the pace of aggregated energy intensity improvement and carbon intensity decrease must be 2-3 times greater than the previous 40-year historical change, and the change rates need to be maintained for 50 years

  13. Climate-driven range extension of Amphistegina (protista, foraminiferida): models of current and predicted future ranges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langer, Martin R; Weinmann, Anna E; Lötters, Stefan; Bernhard, Joan M; Rödder, Dennis

    2013-01-01

    Species-range expansions are a predicted and realized consequence of global climate change. Climate warming and the poleward widening of the tropical belt have induced range shifts in a variety of marine and terrestrial species. Range expansions may have broad implications on native biota and ecosystem functioning as shifting species may perturb recipient communities. Larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera constitute ubiquitous and prominent components of shallow water ecosystems, and range shifts of these important protists are likely to trigger changes in ecosystem functioning. We have used historical and newly acquired occurrence records to compute current range shifts of Amphistegina spp., a larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera, along the eastern coastline of Africa and compare them to analogous range shifts currently observed in the Mediterranean Sea. The study provides new evidence that amphisteginid foraminifera are rapidly progressing southwestward, closely approaching Port Edward (South Africa) at 31°S. To project future species distributions, we applied a species distribution model (SDM) based on ecological niche constraints of current distribution ranges. Our model indicates that further warming is likely to cause a continued range extension, and predicts dispersal along nearly the entire southeastern coast of Africa. The average rates of amphisteginid range shift were computed between 8 and 2.7 km year(-1), and are projected to lead to a total southward range expansion of 267 km, or 2.4° latitude, in the year 2100. Our results corroborate findings from the fossil record that some larger symbiont-bearing foraminifera cope well with rising water temperatures and are beneficiaries of global climate change. PMID:23405081

  14. Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

  15. SOC storage in Swiss forest soils - driven by climate or historical land-use?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gosheva, Sia; Walthert, Lorenz; Niklaus, Pascal; Zimmermann, Stephan; Hagedorn, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Soils store the most carbon of all terrestrial ecosystems, with forest soils being particularly carbon-rich (Schmidt et al. 2011; Hagedorn et al. 2010; Jobaggy & Jackson 2000). The C balance of soils might be altered by land-use changes such as in Switzerland, where the forest cover has increased by approximately 22% in the last century (Ginzler et al. 2011). The objectives of this study were 1) to determine whether historical forest cover change has an impact on soil organic carbon (SOC) storage in Swiss forests, and 2) to estimate the influence of climate on C-stocks in the organic layer and the mineral soil. In our study, we reconstructed forest cover changes for the last 150 years for the coordinates of 1000 soil profiles from the soil database of the Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research (WSL). We evaluated historical and modern topographic maps using ArcGIS, classifying current forest sites into permanently (≥150y) forested and newly forested sites (forest ages of the sites and of potentially additional drivers such as topography, climate, and soil properties on SOC stocks. Contrary to our expectations, our results indicate slightly higher SOC stocks in younger forest sites compared to permanently forested ones. This result could be observed in both organic layer (28,65 vs. 22,23 t C ha-1) and mineral soil (131,38 vs. 113,68 t C ha-1). We attribute the slightly smaller SOC stocks in the younger forests to their inherently higher SOC-stocks, as associated with favorable land previously used for grassland. Moreover, we observed higher SOC stocks under coniferous than under deciduous forest - however, this was only evident in the organic layer, but not in the mineral soil. Soil carbon increased significantly with decreasing mean annual temperature (MAT) and increasing precipitation (MAP), in particular in the organic layer. In addition to climate, we tested a number of other controlling factors such as altitude, pH, soil texture

  16. Spontaneous Emission from a Driven Atom Embedded in a Photonic Crystal

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XIE Shuang-Yuan; YANG Ya-Ping; CHENG Hong; ZHU Shi-Yao; WU Xiang

    2000-01-01

    The properties of the spontaneous emission from a three-level atom with an external driving field in a photonic crystal are studied. The population in the two upper levels displays complete decay or oscillatory behavior,depending on the initial atomic state and the relative position of the two upper levels from the forbidden gap.The intensity and the phase of the external field can also affect spontaneous emission from the atom.

  17. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfils, Celine J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-01-01

    El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. This study uses simulations performed with coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) to investigate how regional precipitation in the twenty-first century may be affected by changes in both ENSO-driven precipitation variability and slowly evolving mean rainfall. First, a dominant, time-invariant pattern of canonical ENSO variability (cENSO) is identified in observed SST data. Next, the fidelity with which 33 state-of-the-art CGCMs represent the spatial structure and temporal variability of this pattern (as well as its associated precipitation responses) is evaluated in simulations of twentieth-century climate change. Possible changes in both the temporal variability of this pattern and its associated precipitation teleconnections are investigated in twenty-first-century climate projections. Models with better representation of the observed structure of the cENSO pattern produce winter rainfall teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with twentieth-century observations and more stationary during the twenty-first century. Finally, the model-predicted twenty-first-century rainfall response to cENSO is decomposed into the sum of three terms: 1) the twenty-first-century change in the mean state of precipitation, 2) the historical precipitation response to the cENSO pattern, and 3) a future enhancement in the rainfall response to cENSO, which amplifies rainfall extremes. By examining the three terms jointly, this conceptual framework allows the identification of regions likely to experience future rainfall anomalies that are without precedent in the current climate.

  18. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

  19. U.S. EPA's global climate change program: Landfill emissions and mitigation research. Rept. for Aug 90-May 91

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The paper discusses the U.S. EPA's global climate change program, concentrating on global landfill methane (CH4) emissions and mitigation research. The EPA's Air and Energy Engineering Research Laboratory (AEERL) has begun research on developing more reliable emission estimates of the key greenhouse gas sources that are amenable to cost-effective control. Research has been initiated on biomass and CH4 utilization, tropospheric ozone, and evaluation of potential mitigation opportunities for emissions contributing to global climate change. The emissions program has begun to identify and quantify emission sources of greenhouse gases for anthropogenic sources including landfills, coal mines, natural gas production/distribution, cookstoves, and biomass burning. Development of enhanced emission estimates will improve the understanding of atmospheric chemistry and feedback effects, target mitigation opportunities, and ensure cost-effective mitigation strategies

  20. Is Carbon Offsetting an Elaborate Charade? Climate Change: the Mirage of Greenhouse Gas Emission Compensation Mechanisms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There is now a massive scientific consensus around global warming and the subject is a major focus of media interest in most industrialized countries. The man-made origin of the phenomenon is also generally accepted; hence the efforts expended by those in government, the international community, environmental organizations etc. to limit its scope by acting on its main driver, greenhouse gas emissions. It is in this context that a market in the voluntary compensation of greenhouse gas emissions has developed in recent years. This is known as the ''voluntary carbon offsetting market'' and consists in selling activities or projects that are supposed, in the medium or long term, to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby compensating for the climatically damaging effects of the purchasers' current activities. In other words, buyers may be said to be giving themselves a clear conscience about today's emissions by paying for an act of emission-reduction tomorrow. Though the principle may seem praiseworthy, on closer inspection the idea of carbon offsetting, as currently on offer, turns out to be deceptive. Augustin Fragniere demonstrates the point here with a precise analysis of the estimates and forecasts available in this field (showing how disputable the up-front emissions assessments are), and also of the spatial and temporal dimensions that are very largely concealed by the players in the carbon offsetting market. He shows, lastly, that carbon offsetting mechanisms lead to action being postponed, with an aggravation of the harm done and an increased need for action in the future as a consequence, whereas concrete initiatives to promote behavioural change in the present would have both quicker and clearer effects on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions

  1. Hydrologically Driven Hierarchical Competition-Colonization Model: The Impact of Random Interannual Climate Fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernandez-Illescas, C. P.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

    2001-05-01

    While ecologist and hydrologists hace come to recognize the fundamental importance of soil water availability in many ecosystems, much less prgress has been made in understanding the impact of the temporal variability in soil moisture on ecosystem structure. One recent advance in this regard is the analytical treatment of the vegetation-soil-climate system described by Laio et al. (2001) and Porporato et al. (2001) which characterizes the impact of growing season soil moisture variability on vegetation overall condition. Here, this ecohydrological model is linked with the hierarchical competition-colonization model of Tilman (1994) to asses the impact of interannual growing season rainfall variability on vegetation competition and ecosystem biodiversity. Based on climatic and vegetative data from the La Copita Research Area in the Rio Grande Plains of Southern Texas, 10000 year simulations of spatial competition between a herbaceous C4 Paspaleum setaceum species and a woody Prosopis glandulosa (honey mesquite) species are run using the above linked models. Results show that ecosystem structure is quite sensitive to the inclusion of realistic amounts of interannual rainfall fluctuations. This sensitivity exists with respect to the expected magnitude of the fluctuations as well as the degree to which successive fluctuations are correlated. It is also found that markovian models of interannual rainfall variability - which lack long-term persistence- lead to self-affine time series of species abundances which display f-{β } spectral properties. The implications of these effects on ecological modeling are discussed.

  2. Estimating the climate significance of halogen-driven ozone loss in the tropical marine troposphere

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Saiz-Lopez

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available We have integrated observations of tropospheric ozone, very short-lived (VSL halocarbons and reactive iodine and bromine species from a wide variety of tropical data sources with the global CAM-Chem chemistry-climate model and offline radiative transfer calculations to compute the contribution of halogen chemistry to ozone loss and associated radiative impact in the tropical marine troposphere. The inclusion of tropospheric halogen chemistry in CAM-Chem leads to an annually averaged depletion of around 10% (~2.5 Dobson units of the tropical tropospheric ozone column, with largest effects in the middle to upper troposphere. This depletion contributes approximately −0.10 W m−2 to the radiative flux at the tropical tropopause. This negative flux is of similar magnitude to the ~0.33 W m−2 contribution of tropospheric ozone to present-day radiative balance as recently estimated from satellite observations. We find that the implementation of oceanic halogen sources and chemistry in climate models is an important component of the natural background ozone budget and we suggest that it needs to be considered when estimating both preindustrial ozone baseline levels and long term changes in tropospheric ozone.

  3. Climate Protection Policy with China and the USA after 2012: Cost Reduction through Emissions Trading and Technological Cooperation

    OpenAIRE

    Claudia Kemfert

    2005-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions should be stabilized to today's level to prevent harmful climate damage.The countries that have signed the Kyoto Protocol committed themselves to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions over the period 2008 to 2012, but only to a very limited extent. The USA decided not to ratify the Kyoto Protocol for various reasons. Furthermore, fast-growing economies like China are about to catch up with the USA in terms of their energy consumption and gas emissions. Therefore, in t...

  4. Evaluation of metrics and baselines for tracking greenhouse gas emissions trends: Recommendations for the California climate action registry

    OpenAIRE

    Price, Lynn; Murtishaw, Scott; Worrell, Ernst

    2003-01-01

    Executive Summary: The California Climate Action Registry, which was initially established in 2000 and began operation in Fall 2002, is a voluntary registry for recording annual greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The purpose of the Registry is to assist California businesses and organizations in their efforts to inventory and document emissions in order to establish a baseline and to document early actions to increase energy efficiency and decrease GHG emissions. The State of California has...

  5. New proofs of the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau as a result of the increasing greenhouse gases emissions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    DUAN Anmin; WU Guoxiong; ZHANG Qiong; LIU Yimin

    2006-01-01

    A striking climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau during the last decades has been revealed by many studies, but evidence linking it to human activity is insufficient. By using historical observations, here we show that the in situ climate warming is accompanied by a distinct decreasing trend of the diurnal range of surface air temperature. The ERA40 reanalysis further indicates that there seems to be a coherent warming trend near the tropopause but a cooling trend in the lower stratosphere. Moreover, all these features can be reproduced in two coupled climate models forced by observed CO2 concentration of the 20th century but cannot be produced by the fixed external conditions before the industrial revolution. These suggest that the recent climate warming over the Tibetan Plateau primarily results from the increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gases emissions, and impacts of the increased greenhouse gases emissions upon the climate change in the plateau are probably more serious than the rest of the world.

  6. International negotiations on climate policy. Reduction targets, Joint Implementation and tradeable emission permits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    From 1 to 12 December 1997, member states of the United Nations will be negotiating targets and instruments to curb climate change. This paper outlines the background to these negotiations, providing an overview of the actors, proposals and issues. In the discussion on targets, actors will stress, among other things, problems of enforcement, fear of limits to economic growth and free-riding by developing countries. The political acceptance of ambitious reduction targets is therefore unlikely. The discussion on instruments focuses on international cooperation through Joint Implementation and tradeable emission permits. But the potential cost-effectiveness of these instruments is hampered by conceptual and practical problems. 2 tabs., 15 refs

  7. The climate impact of ship NOx emissions: An improved estimate accounting for plume chemistry

    OpenAIRE

    Holmes, CD; Prather, MJ; Vinken, GCM

    2014-01-01

    Nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from maritime shipping produce ozone (O3) and hydroxyl radicals (OH), which in turn destroy methane (CH 4). The balance between this warming (due to O3) and cooling (due to CH4) determines the net effect of ship NOx on climate. Previous estimates of the chemical impact and radiative forcing (RF) of ship NOx have generally assumed that plumes of ship exhaust are instantly diluted into model grid cells spanning hundreds of kilometers, even though this is known to ...

  8. EMISSIONS OF NITROUS OXIDE FROM ARABLE SOILS: EFFECTS OF TILLAGE REDUCED N INPUT AND CLIMATE CHANGE

    OpenAIRE

    Abdalla, M; Jones, M; Ambus, P.; M. Wattenbach; Smith, P; Williams, M.

    2012-01-01

    Nitrous oxide (N2O) flux measurements from an Irish spring barley field managed under conventional and reduced tillage and different N fertilizer rates at the Teagasc Oak Park Research Centre were made for two consecutive seasons. The aims were to investigate the efficacy of reduced tillage, reduced N fertilizer and climate change on N2O fluxes and emission factors and to study the relationship between crop yield and N-induced fluxes of N2O. The soil is a sandy loam with a pH of 7.4 and organ...

  9. Optimal greenhouse gas emissions under various assessments of climate change ambiguity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The probabilities associated with global warming damage are likely to be continuously revised in the light of new information. Such revisions of probability are the defining characteristic of ambiguity, as opposed to risk. In this paper it is examined how climate change ambiguity may affect optimal greenhouse gas emission strategies, via the decision maker's attitude towards anticipated changes of damage probabilities. Two conceptualizations of ambiguity are distinguished, according to the emphasis placed on the ambiguity of priors or on the ambiguity of news, respectively. It is shown that the way in which ambiguity is viewed and the attitude taken towards it have a substantial influence on the optimal emission trajectory. 7 figs., 7 refs

  10. Climate- and disturbance-driven changes in vegetation composition and structure limit future potential carbon storage in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henne, Paul D.; Hawbaker, Todd J.; Zhao, Feng; Huang, Chengquan; Berryman, Erin M.; Zhu, Zhiliang

    2016-04-01

    the largest increases in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta; 332% increase) and spruce/fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa; 243% increase) stands. In model runs with the historic fire regime, average stand age and live biomass remained consistent with pre-1988 values during the 200-year simulation period; biomass increased significantly only in recently-logged areas. In contrast, a marked shift to younger stands with lower biomass occurred in the future fire scenario. Average stand age declined from 112 years to 31 years in lodgepole pine stands, and from 191 years to 65 years in spruce/fir stands, with consequent reductions in living biomass. A smaller shift in stand age was simulated for douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) stands (i.e. 121 to 92 years). These fire-driven changes in stand age and biomass coincided with important shifts in species abundances. Specifically, lodgepole pine stands replaced large areas previously dominated by spruce and fir. Our results suggest that the potential for increasing the amount of fossil fuel emissions offset by carbon sequestration on public lands in the American West is limited by ongoing changes in disturbance regimes. Instead, land managers may need to consider strategies to adapt to climate change impacts.

  11. Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gingold, Ruth; Moens, Tom; Rocha-Olivares, Axayácatl

    2013-01-01

    Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD]) and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions). We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found evidence for

  12. Assessing the Response of Nematode Communities to Climate Change-Driven Warming: A Microcosm Experiment.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Gingold

    Full Text Available Biodiversity has diminished over the past decades with climate change being among the main responsible factors. One consequence of climate change is the increase in sea surface temperature, which, together with long exposure periods in intertidal areas, may exceed the tolerance level of benthic organisms. Benthic communities may suffer structural changes due to the loss of species or functional groups, putting ecological services at risk. In sandy beaches, free-living marine nematodes usually are the most abundant and diverse group of intertidal meiofauna, playing an important role in the benthic food web. While apparently many functionally similar nematode species co-exist temporally and spatially, experimental results on selected bacterivore species suggest no functional overlap, but rather an idiosyncratic contribution to ecosystem functioning. However, we hypothesize that functional redundancy is more likely to observe when taking into account the entire diversity of natural assemblages. We conducted a microcosm experiment with two natural communities to assess their stress response to elevated temperature. The two communities differed in diversity (high [HD] vs. low [LD] and environmental origin (harsh vs. moderate conditions. We assessed their stress resistance to the experimental treatment in terms of species and diversity changes, and their function in terms of abundance, biomass, and trophic diversity. According to the Insurance Hypothesis, we hypothesized that the HD community would cope better with the stressful treatment due to species functional overlap, whereas the LD community functioning would benefit from species better adapted to harsh conditions. Our results indicate no evidence of functional redundancy in the studied nematofaunal communities. The species loss was more prominent and size specific in the HD; large predators and omnivores were lost, which may have important consequences for the benthic food web. Yet, we found

  13. Climatic driven variability of surface water energy potential and implications for future hydroelectricity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Lindstrom, G.

    2014-12-01

    An average year the production in Norway and Sweden is around 190 TWh and these two countries stand for about 70% of the hydropower energy stored in the available reservoirs of Europe. There are large challenges for the future use of this regulatory capacity with regard to balancing the electricity production in Europe under climate variability, compliance to water management plans under the Water Framework Directive and to the shifts to more renewable, but intermittent, energy sources required by the Renewable Energy Directive. A main aim of this project is to describe the variation over time of hydrological fluxes across Scandinavia in terms of their energy properties and to link that information to climatic factors and the regulation of hydroelectricty. Along these lines we explored daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, which were used to calibrate the HBV-model for 1001 watersheds in Sweden and the energy potential has been estimated as an average for that period (Figure below). These tentative results show that the surface water energy potential constitutes about one per mille of the latent heat flux due to evapotranspiration and it is, therefore, very sensitive to any fluctuation in the energy quantities of the hydrometeorological system. Tentative analysis suggests that the energy availability of surface water in Sweden exhibits significant decadal long fluctuations from 115 TWh/year up to 180 TWh/year, which follow several different time scales and periodicities, ranging from century-long trends to fluctuations occurring on time scales of a decade and shorter. In addition, recent investigations show that land-use changes and hydropower regulation has caused significant changes in the annual runoff periodicity in Swedish rivers during the 20th century. Those changes in the annual periodicities are caused by structural alterations in river basins affected by intense agriculture and hydropower regulation.

  14. Synchrotron emission driven by the Cherenkov-drift instability in active galactic nuclei

    CERN Document Server

    Osmanov, Zaza

    2012-01-01

    In the present paper we study generation of the synchrotron emission by means of the feedback of Cherenkov drift waves on the particle distribution via the diffusion process. It is shown that despite the efficient synchrotron losses the excited Cherenkov drift instability leads to the quasi-linear diffusion (QLD), effect of which is balanced by dissipation factors and as a result the pitch angles are prevented from damping, maintaining the corresponding synchrotron emission. The model is analyzed for a wide range of physical parameters and it is shown that the mechanism of QLD guarantees the generation of electromagnetic radiation from soft $X$-rays up to soft $\\gamma$-rays, strongly correlated with Cherenkov drift emission ranging from IR up to UV energy domains.

  15. Reverse Shock Emission Driven By Post-Merger Millisecond Magnetar Winds: Effects of the Magnetization Parameter

    CERN Document Server

    Liu, L D; Dai, Z G

    2016-01-01

    The study of short-duration gamma-ray bursts provides growing evidence that a good fraction of double neutron star mergers lead to the formation of stable millisecond magnetars. The launch of Poynting flux by the millisecond magnetars could leave distinct electromagnetic signatures that reveal the energy dissipation processes in the magnetar wind. In previous studies (Wang & Dai 2013b; Wang et al. 2015), we assume that the magnetar wind becomes completely lepton-dominated so that electrons/positrons in the magnetar wind are accelerated by a diffusive shock. However, theoretical modeling of pulsar wind nebulae shows that in many cases the magnetic field energy in the pulsar wind may be strong enough to suppress diffusive shock acceleration. In this paper, we investigate the reverse shock emission as well as the forward shock emission with an arbitrary magnetization parameter $\\sigma$ of a magnetar wind. We find that the reverse shock emission strongly depends on $\\sigma$, and in particular, $\\sigma \\sim 0....

  16. A reconstruction of policy-driven innovations to reduce Dutch car emissions 1960-2010

    OpenAIRE

    WALTA, L; Annema, J.A.

    2011-01-01

    One of the main drawbacks of mobility are the traffic-related emissions of air pollutants – e.g. nitrogen oxides (NOx) – and greenhouse gases – e.g. carbon dioxide (CO2). In the past governments all over the world aimed at technological innovations to limit the emissions from traffic. Using insights from innovation theory regarding the role of the government in (transport) innovations, we analyse the role of the Dutch government between 1960 and 2010. This analysis is based on a reconstructio...

  17. Regional and global temperature response to anthropogenic SO2 emissions from China in three climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, Matthew; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-François; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-08-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  18. EU policies on car emissions and fuel quality. Reducing the climate impact from road transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, Anne Raaum; Gulbrandsen, Lars H.

    2012-07-01

    Transport is the second biggest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU, and contributes about one-quarter of the EU's total emissions of CO{sub 2}. Significant reductions in GHG emissions from transport are required if the EU is to achieve its long-term climate goals. This report examines the making and implementation of two of the regulations the EU has put in place to lower emissions from the transport sector: the EU's revised Fuel Quality Directive (Directive 2009/30/EC) and the cars/CO{sub 2} regulation (Regulation (EC) 443/2009). It was found that the relevance of various theories of policymaking in the EU varies with different policy phases. A policy-network understanding of EU policymaking is strengthened when assessing the policy-initiation phase. The Commission played a key role in this phase and drafted legislation in close collaboration with the car and oil refining industries. An intergovernmentalist understanding of EU policy-making is strengthened when assessing the decision-making phase. In this phase, member states defending the interests of their domestic industries had strong influence, but the European Parliament played an important role in this phase too, employing its power in the co-decision procedure. Finally, the implementation process is best understood as a multi-level governance process in which several actors and institutions - notably the Commission, member states, industries, and NGOs - influenced the process. (Author)

  19. Multivariate data-driven modelling and pattern recognition for damage detection and identification for acoustic emission and acousto-ultrasonics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Different methods are commonly used for non-destructive testing in structures; among others, acoustic emission and ultrasonic inspections are widely used to assess structures. The research presented in this paper is motivated by the need to improve the inspection capabilities and reliability of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems based on ultrasonic guided waves with focus on the acoustic emission and acousto-ultrasonics techniques. The use of a guided wave based approach is driven by the fact that these waves are able to propagate over relatively long distances, and interact sensitively and uniquely with different types of defect. Special attention is paid here to the development of efficient SHM methodologies. This requires robust signal processing techniques for the correct interpretation of the complex ultrasonic waves. Therefore, a variety of existing algorithms for signal processing and pattern recognition are evaluated and integrated into the different proposed methodologies. As a contribution to solve the problem, this paper presents results in damage detection and classification using a methodology based on hierarchical nonlinear principal component analysis, square prediction measurements and self-organizing maps, which are applied to data from acoustic emission tests and acousto-ultrasonic inspections. At the end, the efficiency of these methodologies is experimentally evaluated in diverse anisotropic composite structures. (paper)

  20. COEXISTENCE OF GRAVITATIONALLY-BOUND AND RADIATION-DRIVEN C IV EMISSION LINE REGIONS IN ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    There are mutually contradictory views in the literature of the kinematics and structure of high-ionization line (e.g., C IV) emitting regions in active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Two kinds of broad emission line region (BELR) models have been proposed, outflow and gravitationally-bound BELR, which are supported, respectively, by blueshift of the C IV line and reverberation mapping observations. To reconcile these two apparently different models, we present a detailed comparison study between the C IV and Mg II lines using a sample of AGNs selected from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. We find that the kinematics of the C IV region is different from that of Mg II, which is thought to be controlled by gravity. A strong correlation is found between the blueshift and asymmetry of the C IV profile and the Eddington ratio. This provides strong observational support for the postulation that the outflow is driven by radiation pressure. In particular, we find robust evidence that the C IV line region is largely dominated by outflow at high Eddington ratios, while it is primarily gravitationally-bounded at low Eddington ratios. Our results indicate that these two emitting regions coexist in most AGNs. The emission strength from these two gases varies smoothly with Eddington ratio in opposite ways. This explanation naturally reconciles the apparently contradictory views proposed in previous studies. Finally, candidate models are discussed which can account for both the enhancement of outflow emission and suppression of normal BEL in AGNs with high Eddington ratios.

  1. Micro distributed energy system driven with preheated Croton megalocarpus oil – A performance and particulate emission study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highlights: • Promising Croton megalocarpus oil preheated and directly applied on engine. • A direct plant oil firing micro trigeneration developed for domestic sector. • Study the particulate emission of the engine with direct plant oil firing. • Reveal the fundamental reasons for the performance and emission variation. - Abstract: As a carbon neutral biofuel, the cold pressed Croton megalocarpus oil (CMO) has the nature of easy production without any further chemical process, but suffers for its high viscosity and poor atomisation if being applied on the compression-ignition (CI) engine generator. A micro distributed energy system comprised of a modified 6.5 kWe CI engine generator and an engine exhaust driven diffusion absorption refrigerator has been set up for domestic application, which applies both diesel and CMO. To minimise the negative impact of fuel properties of CMO, the temperature before injection has been elevated with the trace heater and the waste heat from the engine. The performance of the preheated CMO up to 90 °C on the engine generator system reflects an improvement of the atomisation and combustion in the cylinder compared to the non-preheated CMO. The particulate emission test reveals the similarity of both the total number and the total weigh of the particulates emitted from the engine generator system running on diesel and CMO in 90 °C

  2. Emissions trading in international aviation. Possible design options for an emissions trading scheme and their impact on climate change and the aviation industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the contribution of aviation to global warm-ing was 3.5 % in 1992. Considering the average growth rate of 4 % per year, the share might be more than doubled by the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2012). However, due to difficulties in allocating emissions from international aviation to individual countries, these emissions are exempt from commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, although in Article 2.2 the Parties to the Protocol are obliged to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation. To comply with this obligation, the introduction of emissions trading in international aviation is being discussed within the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). This paper analyses the design options of such an emissions trading scheme and its impact on climate change and the aviation industry. Among other matters, it discusses issues such as open and closed emissions trading schemes, coverage of gases, initial allocation of allowances and possible caps for the aviation industry. It is based on a re-search project that has been carried out on behalf of the German Federal Environmental Agency. The paper reveals that despite complex tropospheric and stratospheric interactions, as well as allocation problems, there are adequate structural options for the design of an emissions trading scheme. Given an adequate structure, emissions trading offers a great incentive to optimise flight routes not only according to economic but also to climatic factors. Consequently, the system would effectively reduce the contribution of aviation to climate change

  3. Reverse shock emission driven by post-merger millisecond magnetar winds: Effects of the magnetization parameter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, L. D.; Wang, L. J.; Dai, Z. G.

    2016-08-01

    The study of short-duration gamma-ray bursts provides growing evidence that a good fraction of double neutron star mergers lead to the formation of stable millisecond magnetars. The launch of Poynting flux by the millisecond magnetars could leave distinct electromagnetic signatures that reveal the energy dissipation processes in the magnetar wind. In previous studies, we assume that the magnetar wind becomes completely lepton-dominated so that electrons/positrons in the magnetar wind are accelerated by a diffusive shock. However, theoretical modeling of pulsar wind nebulae shows that in many cases the magnetic field energy in the pulsar wind may be strong enough to suppress diffusive shock acceleration. In this paper, we investigate the reverse shock emission and the forward shock emission with an arbitrary magnetization parameter σ of a magnetar wind. We find that the reverse shock emission strongly depends on σ, and in particular that σ ~ 0.3 leads to the strongest reverse shock emission. Future observations would be helpful to diagnose the composition of the magnetar wind.

  4. Interannual climate variations in Arctic as driven by the Global atmosphere oscillation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serykh, Ilya; Byshev, Vladimir; Neiman, Victor; Sidorova, Alexandra; Sonechkin, Dmitry

    2015-04-01

    The present-day global climate change affects the Arctic basin substantially more because of the sea ice cover extinction and the permafrost melting. But there are essential variations of these effects from year to year. We believe that these variations might be a regional manifestation of a planetary-scale phenomenon named the Global atmospheric oscillation (GAO). GAO includes the well-known El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) process and similar processes in equatorial Atlantic and Indian Oceans within itself. The goal of this report is to present some arguments to support this point of view. For this goal, we have studied some interrelations between the above-mentioned Arctic anomalies and GAO as seen in global re-analyses of the sea level pressure (SLP) and near surface temperature (NST) for the period of 1920-2013. The mean global fields of SLP and NST have been computed for all El Niño events falling into this time period, and separately, for all and La Niña events. As a result, two (for SLP and NST as well) global fields of the mean El Niño/La Niña difference were obtained. Statistical significance of the non-zero values of these fields, i.e. the reality of GAO, was evaluated with the t-Student's test. It turned out that the main spatial structures of GAO, presented specifically by El Niño and La Niña events in Pacific region, exist at a very high level (up to 99%, t>4) of the significance. Therefore, one can conclude that the interannual-scale dynamics of GAO is actually reflected in the climate features of different regions of the Earth, including the Russian Arctic. In particular, when the boreal winter season coincides with an El Niño event GAO is indicative by a negative anomaly of NST (about -1°C) and a positive anomaly of SLP over the Arctic basin. In contrary, significant (about +1°C) positive anomaly of NST along with reduced SLP over the whole Arctic region is typical for any La Niña event (up to 95%, t>2). To control the reliability

  5. Collaborative Project: The problem of bias in defining uncertainty in computationally enabled strategies for data-driven climate model development. Final Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huerta, Gabriel [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-05-10

    The objective of the project is to develop strategies for better representing scientific sensibilities within statistical measures of model skill that then can be used within a Bayesian statistical framework for data-driven climate model development and improved measures of model scientific uncertainty. One of the thorny issues in model evaluation is quantifying the effect of biases on climate projections. While any bias is not desirable, only those biases that affect feedbacks affect scatter in climate projections. The effort at the University of Texas is to analyze previously calculated ensembles of CAM3.1 with perturbed parameters to discover how biases affect projections of global warming. The hypothesis is that compensating errors in the control model can be identified by their effect on a combination of processes and that developing metrics that are sensitive to dependencies among state variables would provide a way to select version of climate models that may reduce scatter in climate projections. Gabriel Huerta at the University of New Mexico is responsible for developing statistical methods for evaluating these field dependencies. The UT effort will incorporate these developments into MECS, which is a set of python scripts being developed at the University of Texas for managing the workflow associated with data-driven climate model development over HPC resources. This report reflects the main activities at the University of New Mexico where the PI (Huerta) and the Postdocs (Nosedal, Hattab and Karki) worked on the project.

  6. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrum, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Conrad; VanSusteren, Lise; VonShuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  7. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  8. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  9. Impacts on wave-driven harbour agitation due to climate change in Catalan ports

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sierra, J. P.; Casas-Prat, M.; Virgili, M.; Mosso, C.; Sanchez-Arcilla, A.

    2015-08-01

    The objective of the present work is to analyse how changes in wave patterns due to the effect of climate change can affect harbour agitation (oscillations within the port due to wind waves). The study focuses on 13 harbours located on the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) using a methodology with general applicability. To obtain the patterns of agitation, a Boussinesq-type model is used, which is forced at the boundaries by present/future offshore wave conditions extracted from recently developed high-resolution wave projections in the NW Mediterranean. These wave projections were obtained with the SWAN model forced by present/future surface wind fields projected, respectively, by five different combinations of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) for the A1B scenario. The results show a general slight reduction in the annual average agitation for most of the ports, except for the northernmost and southernmost areas of the region, where a slight increase is obtained. A seasonal analysis reveals that the tendency to decrease is accentuated in winter. However, the inter-model variability is large for both the winter and the annual analysis. Conversely, a general increase with a larger agreement among models is found during summer, which is the period with greater activity in most of the studied ports (marinas). A qualitative assessment of the factors of variability seems to indicate that the choice of GCM tends to affect the spatial pattern, whereas the choice of RCM induces a more homogeneous bias over the regional domain.

  10. Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampel, Andrea; Hetzel, Ralf; Maniatis, Georgios

    2010-05-28

    Numerical models including one or more faults in a rheologically stratified lithosphere show that climate-induced variations in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface considerably affect the slip evolution of both thrust and normal faults. In general, the slip rate and hence the seismicity of a fault decreases during loading and increases during unloading. Here, we present several case studies to show that a postglacial slip rate increase occurred on faults worldwide in regions where ice caps and lakes decayed at the end of the last glaciation. Of note is that the postglacial amplification of seismicity was not restricted to the areas beneath the large Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets but also occurred in regions affected by smaller ice caps or lakes, e.g. the Basin-and-Range Province. Our results do not only have important consequences for the interpretation of palaeoseismological records from faults in these regions but also for the evaluation of the future seismicity in regions currently affected by deglaciation like Greenland and Antarctica: shrinkage of the modern ice sheets owing to global warming may ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions. PMID:20403839

  11. Climate-driven vertical acceleration of Icelandic crust measured by continuous GPS geodesy

    KAUST Repository

    Compton, Kathleen

    2015-02-06

    © 2015 The Authors. Earth\\'s present-day response to enhanced glacial melting resulting from climate change can be measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. We present data from 62 continuously operating GPS instruments in Iceland. Statistically significant upward velocity and accelerations are recorded at 27 GPS stations, predominantly located in the Central Highlands region of Iceland, where present-day thinning of the Iceland ice caps results in velocities of more than 30mm/yr and uplift accelerations of 1-2mm/yr2. We use our acceleration estimates to back calculate to a time of zero velocity, which coincides with the initiation of ice loss in Iceland from ice mass balance calculations and Arctic warming trends. We show, through a simple inversion, a direct relationship between ice mass balance measurements and vertical position and show that accelerated unloading is required to reproduce uplift observations for a simple elastic layer over viscoelastic half-space model.

  12. Assessing Land Management Change Effects on Forest Carbon and Emissions Under Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, B. E.

    2014-12-01

    There has been limited focus on fine-scale land management change effects on forest carbon under future environmental conditions (climate, nitrogen deposition, increased atmospheric CO2). Forest management decisions are often made at the landscape to regional levels before analyses have been conducted to determine the potential outcomes and effectiveness of such actions. Scientists need to evaluate plausible land management actions in a timely manner to help shape policy and strategic land management. Issues of interest include species-level adaptation to climate, resilience and vulnerability to mortality within forested landscapes and regions. Efforts are underway to improve land system model simulation of future mortality related to climate, and to develop and evaluate plausible land management options that could help mitigate or avoid future die-offs. Vulnerability to drought-related mortality varies among species and with tree size or age. Predictors of species ability to survive in specific environments are still not resolved. A challenge is limited observations for fine-scale (e.g. 4 km2) modeling, particularly physiological parameters. Uncertainties are primarily associated with future land management and policy decisions. They include the interface with economic factors and with other ecosystem services (biodiversity, water availability, wildlife habitat). The outcomes of future management scenarios should be compared with business-as-usual management under the same environmental conditions to determine the effects of management changes on forest carbon and net emissions to the atmosphere. For example, in the western U.S., land system modeling and life cycle assessment of several management options to reduce impacts of fire reduced long-term forest carbon gain and increased carbon emissions compared with business-as-usual management under future environmental conditions. The enhanced net carbon uptake with climate and reduced fire emissions after thinning

  13. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry–climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, ‑0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  14. Aviation in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. A first step towards reducing the impact of aviation on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The European Commission's proposal of September 2005 to include the aviation sector in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme can be seen as a step forward in taking up the aviation sector in climate policy. The environmental impacts of including aviation in the EU-ETS will depend fully on the design of the trading system, with particular emphasis on the total CO2 emission allowances to be determined. In September 2005 the European Commission published its proposal in a Communication on policy instruments to reduce the climate change impacts of aviation. In this MNP report we are addressing Dutch negotiators and members of the Dutch and European parliaments who are not familiar with the details of the policy field with an overview of the main aspects of the policy issue. So far, aviation has not been included in European or international climate policies. However, as the overall climate impact of aviation is estimated at a factor of 2 to 4 higher than the impact of CO2 emissions alone, it is significant enough to be brought forward. If the aviation sector is included in the EU emissions trading system, in the short term the sector is expected to account for carbon emission reductions by purchasing CO2 allowances from other sectors. Impacts on the economy and the environment in the Netherlands are not expected to differ fundamentally from other countries. Kerosene tax and emissions charges may be worthwhile considering, although politically sensitive at international level

  15. Climate-driven lacustrine dynamics from the Early Pleistocene Lorenyang Lake, Turkana Basin, Kenya

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joordens, Josephine; Beck, Catherine; Sier, Mark; Van der Lubbe, Jeroen; Dupont-Nivet, Guillaume; Langereis, Cor; Vonhof, Hubert; Cohen, Andy; Olago, Dan; Campisano, Chris; Feibel, Craig

    2016-04-01

    Two stratigraphic records from Kaitio in West Turkana, Kenya, span 1.87 - 1.34 Ma, and document environmental character and variability through a critical interval for human evolution and cultural development. The WTK13 core collected by the Hominin Sites and Paleolakes Drilling Project (HSPDP) recovered 216 m of sediment at 95% recovery. A parallel outcrop record of 180 m was investigated in exposures along the Kaitio laga close to the drill site. Six tephrostratigraphic markers, the Chari, Lokapetamoi, 22Q-3, Etirr, Ebei and KBS Tuffs are present in the outcrop and/or core. These were characterized by single-shard geochemical analysis, and provide links to the well-established tephrochronology of the Turkana Basin. Magnetic polarity stratigraphy of the two records documents the top of the Olduvai Subchron (C2N) at 1.78 Ma. The lithostratigraphic record, bolstered by magnetic susceptibility and sedimentary facies characterization, demonstrates a first-order transition from a deeper lacustrine system to a dynamic lake margin setting, followed by delta progradation. Facies analysis reveals repeated fluctuations of lake level at Milankovitch and sub-Milankovitch scales. Core-outcrop correlation allows detailed comparisons between diagenetically-prone outcrop samples and more pristine samples from the deep core. The excellent preservation of the core sediments makes it possible to obtain critical climate records of organic biomarkers, pollen, phytoliths and other proxies. This detailed archive of environmental variability is closely linked to the rich paleontological and archaeological discoveries from nearby sites and around the Turkana Basin.

  16. Development of methodologies for calculating greenhouse gas emissions from electricity generation for the California climate action registry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Price, Lynn; Marnay, Chris; Sathaye, Jayant; Murtishaw, Scott; Fisher, Diane; Phadke, Amol; Franco, Guido

    2002-04-01

    The California Climate Action Registry, which will begin operation in Fall 2002, is a voluntary registry for California businesses and organizations to record annual greenhouse gas emissions. Reporting of emissions in the Registry by a participant involves documentation of both ''direct'' emissions from sources that are under the entity's control and ''indirect'' emissions controlled by others. Electricity generated by an off-site power source is considered to be an indirect emission and must be included in the entity's report. Published electricity emissions factors for the State of California vary considerably due to differences in whether utility-owned out-of-state generation, non-utility generation, and electricity imports from other states are included. This paper describes the development of three methods for estimating electricity emissions factors for calculating the combined net carbon dioxide emissions from all generating facilities that provide electricity to Californians. We fi nd that use of a statewide average electricity emissions factor could drastically under- or over-estimate an entity's emissions due to the differences in generating resources among the utility service areas and seasonal variations. In addition, differentiating between marginal and average emissions is essential to accurately estimate the carbon dioxide savings from reducing electricity use. Results of this work will be taken into consideration by the Registry when finalizing its guidance for use of electricity emissions factors in calculating an entity's greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. Fast particle-driven ion cyclotron emission (ICE) in tokamak plasmas and the case for an ICE diagnostic in ITER

    CERN Document Server

    McClements, K G; Dendy, R O; Carbajal, L; Chapman, S C; Cook, J W S; Harvey, R W; Heidbrink, W W; Pinches, S D

    2014-01-01

    Fast particle-driven waves in the ion cyclotron frequency range (ion cyclotron emission or ICE) have provided a valuable diagnostic of confined and escaping fast ions in many tokamaks. This is a passive, non-invasive diagnostic that would be compatible with the high radiation environment of deuterium-tritium plasmas in ITER, and could provide important information on fusion {\\alpha}-particles and beam ions in that device. In JET, ICE from confined fusion products scaled linearly with fusion reaction rate over six orders of magnitude and provided evidence that {\\alpha}-particle confinement was close to classical. In TFTR, ICE was observed from super-Alfv\\'enic {\\alpha}-particles in the plasma edge. The intensity of beam-driven ICE in DIII-D is more strongly correlated with drops in neutron rate during fishbone excitation than signals from more direct beam ion loss diagnostics. In ASDEX Upgrade ICE is produced by both super-Alfv\\'enic DD fusion products and sub-Alfv\\'enic deuterium beam ions.

  18. Potential feedback of thawing permafrost to the global climate system through methane emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Large amounts of soil carbon deposited in permafrost may be released due to deeper seasonal thawing under the climatic conditions projected for the future. An increase in the volume of the available organic material together with the higher ground temperatures may lead to enhanced emission of greenhouse gasses. Particular concerns are associated with methane, which has a much stronger greenhouse effect than an equal amount of CO2. Production of methane is favored in the wetlands, which occupy up to 0.7 million km2 in Russian permafrost regions and have accumulated about 50 Gt of carbon (Gt C). We used the permafrost model and several climatic scenarios to construct projections of the soil temperature and the depth of seasonal thawing. To evaluate the effect of such changes on the volume of the seasonally thawing organic material, we overlaid the permafrost projections on the digitized geographically referenced contours of 59 846 wetlands in the Russian Arctic. Results for the mid-21st century climate indicated up to 50% increase in the volume of organic substrate in the northernmost locations along the Arctic coast and in East Siberia, where wetlands are sparse, and a relatively small increase by 10%-15% in West Siberia, where wetlands occupy 50%-80% of the land. We developed a soil carbon model and used it to estimate the changes in the methane fluxes due to higher soil temperature and increased substrate availability. According to our results, by mid-21st century the annual net flux of methane from Russian permafrost regions may increase by 6-8 Mt, depending on climatic scenario. If other sinks and sources of methane remain unchanged, this may increase the overall content of methane in the atmosphere by approximately 100 Mt, or 0.04 ppm, and lead to 0.012 deg. C global temperature rise

  19. On Cosmic-Ray-Driven Electron Reaction Mechanism for Ozone Hole and Chlorofluorocarbon Mechanism for Global Climate Change

    CERN Document Server

    Lu, Qing-Bin

    2012-01-01

    Numerous laboratory measurements have provided a sound physical basis for the cosmic-ray driven electron-induced reaction (CRE) mechanism of halogen-containing molecules for the ozone hole. And observed spatial and time correlations between polar ozone loss or stratospheric cooling and cosmic rays have shown strong evidence of the CRE mechanism [Q.-B. Lu, Phys. Rep. 487, 141-167(2010)]. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were also long-known greenhouse gases but were thought to play only a minor role in climate change. However, recent observations have shown evidence of the saturation in greenhouse effect of non-CFC gases. A new evaluation has shown that halocarbons alone (mainly CFCs) could account for the rise of 0.5~0.6 deg C in global surface temperature since 1950, leading to the striking conclusion that not CO2 but CFCs were the major culprit for global warming in the late half of the 20th century [Q.-B. Lu, J. Cosmology 8, 1846-1862(2010)]. Surprizingly, a recent paper [J.-W. Grooss and R. Muller, Atmos. Envir...

  20. ESTIMATE OF METHANE EMISSIONS FROM RICE FIELDS IN CHINA BY CLIMATE-BASED NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    KANG Guo-ding; CAI Zu-cong; ZHANG Zi-heng; XIAO Peng-feng

    2004-01-01

    Rice fields provide food for over half of the world population but are also an important source of atmospheric CH4. Using the climate-based GIS empirical model and the meteorological data collected from 600 meteorological stations in China, with county as the basic unit, the net primary productivity (NPP) of rice fields in China in 1990, 1995, 1998, and 2000 were estimated to be in the range from 202.19×1012g C in 1990 to 163.46×1012g C in 2000. From the measured data of the factors affecting CH4 emission and NPP, the conversion ratio of the NPP into CH4 emission for the rice fields of China was determined to be 1.8%. Using this ratio and estimated NPP, the CH4 emissions from rice fields of China in 1990, 1995, 1998, and 2000 were estimated to be 7.24×1012, 6.31×1012, 6.77×1012 and 5.85×1012g CH4, respectively.

  1. Predicting Monsoonal-Driven Stream Discharge and Sediment Yield in Himalaya Mountain Basins with Changing Climate and Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, R. P.; White, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Short and long term effects of site water availability impacts the spectrum of management outcomes including landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture in mountain systems heavily influenced by climate and land use changes. Climate change and land use may predominantly affect the hydrologic cycle of mountain basins as soil precipitation interception is affected by land cover. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, we estimated stream discharge and sediment yield associated with climate and land use changes for two Himalaya basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal that included drainages of the Tamor and Seti Rivers. Future climate change was modeled using average output of temperature and precipitation changes derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (B1, A1B & A2) of 16 global circulation models for 2080 as meteorological inputs into SWAT. Land use change was modeled spatially and included 1) deforestation, 2) expansion of agricultural land, and 3) increased human settlement that were produced by considering current land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use types. We found higher annual stream discharge in all GCM-derived scenarios compared to the baseline with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. With 7% of original forest land removed, sediment yield for Tamor basin was estimated to be 65% higher, but increased to 124% for the SRES-B1 scenario. For the Seti basin, 4% deforestation yielded 33% more sediment for the SRES-A1B scenario. Our results indicated that combined effects of future, intensified monsoon rainfall with deforestation lead to dramatic potential for increased stream discharge and sediment yield as rainfall on steep slopes with thin exposed soils increases surface runoff and soil erosion in the Himalayas. This effect appears to

  2. Alignment of policies to maximize the climate benefits of diesel vehicles through control of particulate matter and black carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Diesel vehicles offer greater fuel-efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions at a time when national governments seek to reduce the energy and climate impacts of the vehicle fleet. Policies that promote diesels like preferential fuel taxes, fuel economy standards and greenhouse gas emission standards can produce higher emissions of diesel particulate matter if diesel particulate filters or equivalent emission control technology is not in place. This can undermine the expected climate benefits of dieselization and increase impacts on public health. This paper takes a historical look at Europe to illustrate the degree to which dieselization and lax controls on particulate matter can undermine the potential benefits sought from diesel vehicles. We show that countries on the dieselization pathway can fully capture the value of diesels with the adoption of tailpipe emission standards equivalent to Euro 6 or Tier 2 for passenger cars, and fuel quality standards that limit the sulfur content of diesel fuel to no greater than 15 ppm. Adoption of these policies before or in parallel with adoption of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas standards can avert the negative impacts of dieselization. - Highlights: ► Preferential tax policies have increased the dieselization of some light-duty vehicle fleets. ► Dieselization paired with lax emission standards produces large black carbon emissions. ► Diesel black carbon undermines the perceived climate benefits of diesel vehicles. ► Stringent controls on diesel particulate emissions will also reduce black carbon. ► Euro 6/VI equivalent emission standards can preserve the climate benefits of diesel vehicles

  3. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Posch, M.; Aherne, J.; Forsius, M.; Fronzek, S.; N. Veijalainen

    2008-01-01

    The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circula...

  4. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    OpenAIRE

    Posch, M.; Aherne, J.; Forsius, M.; Fronzek, S.; N. Veijalainen

    2008-01-01

    The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under ...

  5. Developed and developing world contributions to climate system change based on carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, Ting; Dong, Wenjie; Yan, Qing; Chou, Jieming; Yang, Zhiyong; Tian, Di

    2016-05-01

    One of the key issues in international climate negotiations is the formulation of targets for emissions reduction for all countries based on the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities". This formulation depends primarily on the quantitative attribution of the responsibilities of developed and developing countries for historical climate change. Using the Commuity Earth System Model (CESM), we estimate the responsibilities of developed countries and developing countries for climatic change from 1850 to 2005 using their carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide emissions. The results indicate that developed countries contribute approximately 53%-61%, and developing countries approximately 39%-47%, to the increase in global air temperature, upper oceanic warming, sea-ice reduction in the NH, and permafrost degradation. In addition, the spatial heterogeneity of these changes from 1850 to 2005 is primarily attributed to the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in developed countries. Although uncertainties remain in the climate model and the external forcings used, GHG emissions in developed countries are the major contributor to the observed climate system changes in the 20th century.

  6. Electrochemiluminescent Ion Gels for DC-Driven, Sub-2V Solid-State Emissive Devices by Incorporating Redox Coreactants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moon, Hong Chul; Lodge, Timothy P.; Frisbie, C. Daniel

    2015-03-01

    We have demonstrated a solid-state DC-driven electrochemiluminescent (ECL) device using a solution processable, emissive ECL gel based on polystyrene-block-poly(methyl methacrylate)-block-polystyrene (SMS) and 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide ([EMI][TFSI]). Tetrabutylammonium oxalate (TBAOX) was incorporated into the ECL gel for a coreactant strategy. Oxalate can be viewed as a consumable fuel for the device providing reducing power and cutting the overall operating voltage. The device was fabricated by a simple two-step solution process. Application of 1.6 V DC bias across the device resulted in the onset of light emission. The maximum luminance was achieved at 1:5 mole ratio of ECL luminophore (Ru(bpy)3(PF6)2) and TBAOX, and the turn-on voltage was independent of the composition. The simplicity of the ECL device and its low voltage operation characteristics make it potentially attractive as a display element for printed electronics. TPL and CDF acknowledge financial support from the Air Force Office of Scientific Research under FA9550-12-1-0067.

  7. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems. Results after first growing season and mid term status report

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.;

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3oC increase in temperature with morevigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought...... avoid or minimise climate change and its effects, a European research project CLIMOOR has been initiated. The project is a cross European research project involving6 research groups from Denmark, the Netherlands, UK and Spain and is funded by EU and the participating institutions. The project...... periods within the coming 100 years. The consequences of such climatic changes for the terrestrial ecosystems are largely unknown. In order to improve our understanding of the ecosystem response to climate changeand thereby to improve the basis for international negotiations and political decisions to...

  8. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  9. Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valolahti, Hanna Maritta; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Faubert, Patrick;

    2015-01-01

    to a fixed temperature,warming still had a significant effect suggesting that emissions were also indirectly increased. This indirect increaseappeared to result from increased plant coverage and changes in vegetation composition. The litter addition treat-ment also caused significant increases in the emission...... and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarcticvegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor indirectly affecting the BVOC emissionpotentials and composition.......Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensi-tive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, weaimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term...

  10. Ways to fight against climate change - Renewable energy promotion and carbon dioxide emissions trading vs. nuclear power

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The international treaty on climate change - the Kyoto Protocol - came into effect on February 16 2005. Under the Kyoto Protocol, the EU countries must reduce their CO2 emissions to 8 percent below 1990 levels by 2010 and the United States target is 7 percent below 1990 emissions. A comparison between the greenhouse gas emissions per capita registered in 1995 in the main industrialized countries of the world is shown. Unfortunately, the most important producer of greenhouse gas emissions. We can say that the challenge for energy supply over the next 50 years is how to meet the rapidly growing demand for energy services from a growing population while limiting the greenhouse gas emissions. In this context the following ways to fight against climate change by limiting the greenhouse gas emissions can be highlighted: - Carbon emissions trading (along with JI-CDM mechanisms of Kyoto Protocol); - Promotion of renewable resources; - Return to nuclear power promotion. The paper addresses the following issues: Carbon emissions trading - A new weapon against global warming; Promotion of renewable resources; Nuclear energy is not only an option, but a real need; Nuclear power - Pro and contra; Romanian status. In conclusion one underlines that the main tools in fighting the climate change by limiting the greenhouse gas emissions are: carbon dioxide emissions trading (along with JI-CDM mechanisms of Kyoto Protocol), the promotion of renewable resources and continuing to develop nuclear power. The nuclear power is and will remain in our opinion the main alternative in fighting climate changes in the coming years. It provides large scale electricity supply at lowest costs, copes with the global warming and last but not least, avoids tensions on oil and natural gas markets. Romania benefits from significant hydro generation installed capacities, free of greenhouse gas emissions and has made important steps towards the three directions mentioned above to be in line with the

  11. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  12. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  13. An investigation into linearity with cumulative emissions of the climate and carbon cycle response in HadCM3LC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liddicoat, S. K.; Booth, B. B. B.; Joshi, M. M.

    2016-06-01

    We investigate the extent to which global mean temperature, precipitation, and the carbon cycle are constrained by cumulative carbon emissions throughout four experiments with a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. The paired experiments adopt contrasting, idealised approaches to climate change mitigation at different action points this century, with total emissions rising to more than two trillion tonnes of carbon (TtC). For each pair, the contrasting mitigation approaches—capping emissions early versus reducing them to zero a few decades later—cause their cumulative emissions trajectories to diverge initially, then converge, cross, and diverge again. We find that global mean temperature is linear with cumulative emissions across all experiments, although differences of up to 1.5 K exist regionally when the trajectories of total carbon emitted during the course of the two scenarios coincide, for both pairs of experiments. Interestingly, although the oceanic precipitation response scales with cumulative emissions, the global precipitation response does not, due to a decrease in precipitation over land above emissions of around one TtC. Most carbon fluxes are less well constrained by cumulative emissions as they reach two trillion tonnes. The opposing mitigation approaches have different consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which affects the linearity with which the carbon cycle responds to cumulative emissions. The average Transient Climate Response to cumulative carbon Emissions (TCRE) is 1.95 K TtC‑1, at the upper end of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s range of 0.8–2.5 K TtC‑1.

  14. Nematicon-driven injection of amplified spontaneous emission into an optical fiber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolis, Serena; Virgili, Tersilla; Rajendran, Sai Kiran; Beeckman, Jeroen; Kockaert, Pascal

    2016-05-15

    We investigate experimentally the interaction between amplified spontaneous emission (ASE) and a soliton, which are both generated in a dye-doped nematic liquid crystal (LC) cell. A light beam is injected through an optical fiber slid into the cell to form a soliton beam. ASE is then automatically collected by this self-induced waveguide and efficiently coupled into the same optical fiber, in the backward direction. We demonstrate that the presence of the soliton improves the ASE collection by one order of magnitude. We also show that the ASE is highly polarized in the plane of the LC cell and that the ASE spectrum depends on the pump stripe orientation with respect to the LC director. The origin of the spectral anisotropy of the gain curves is determined with the help of femtosecond pump-probe spectroscopy. PMID:27176973

  15. High field terahertz emission from relativistic laser-driven plasma wakefields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Zi-Yu, E-mail: Ziyu.Chen@uni-duesseldorf.de [Institut für Theoretische Physik I, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf 40225 (Germany); LSD, Institute of Fluid Physics, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621999 (China); Pukhov, Alexander [Institut für Theoretische Physik I, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf 40225 (Germany)

    2015-10-15

    We propose a method to generate high field terahertz (THz) radiation with peak strength of GV/cm level in the THz frequency gap range of 1–10 THz using a relativistic laser interaction with a gaseous plasma target. Due to the effect of local pump depletion, an initially Gaussian laser pulse undergoes leading edge erosion and eventually evolves to a state with leading edge being step function. Interacting with such a pulse, electrons gain transverse residual momentum and excite net transverse currents modulated by the relativistic plasma frequency. These currents give rise to the low frequency THz emission. We demonstrate this process with one and two dimensional particle-in-cell simulations.

  16. Using the stable HSPA1A promoter-driven luciferase reporter HepG2 cells to assess the overall toxicity of coke oven emissions

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    信丽丽

    2013-01-01

    Objective Using the stable HSPA1A(HSP70-1) promoter-driven luciferase reporter HepG2 cells(HepG2/HSPA1A cells) to assess the overall toxicity of coke oven emissions. Methods The stable HepG2/HSPA1A cells were treated with different concentrations of coke oven

  17. Arctic char - friend or foe?: Climate driven seasonal variation in competitive impact of Arcticchar (Salvelinus alpinus L) on brown trout (Salmo truttaence L)

    OpenAIRE

    Ulvan, Eva Marita

    2010-01-01

    Here I test for climate driven seasonal effects on competition in lakes using brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) and Arctic char (Salvelinus alpinus L.) as model organisms. Winter and summer brown trout consumption rates were estimated by 1374 Cs tracer methodology using brown trout sampled in  allopatric (brown trout) and 10 sympatric (brown trout/Arctic char) lakes, located along an altitudinal gradient in central Scandinavia. Lake catchment area  vegetation properties ranged from southern borea...

  18. Joint implementation: a pioneer mechanism within the limits of emissions - Climate study nr 33

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The authors first notice that much has been written about the Clean Development mechanism defined in the Kyoto protocol, but also that the Joint Implementation mechanism has an always increasing importance. Provided that always more countries would adopt greenhouse gas emissions thresholds and the Joint Implementation after the Durban conference, they analyse the Joint Implementation mechanism operation in comparison with the Clean Development mechanism. They address the economic and environmental background of the Joint Implementation. Then, they analyse quantitative aspects of this mechanism, develop a model for the assessment of the potential offer in carbon credits. They discuss the qualitative aspects of the Joint Implementation mechanism: environmental integrity, double accounting, perceived concurrence of national climate policies. Case studies are presented (Russia, Ukraine, France, EU, etc.)

  19. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  20. Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Brazilian Semiarid Region: Environmental, Climate and Social Constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sousa Neto, E. R.; Ometto, J. P.; Aguiar, A. P. D.; Mata, M. V.

    2014-12-01

    Removing a forest to open new agricultural lands, which has been very intensive in countries like Brazil during the last decades, contributes to about 12% of the global anthropogenic emissions. Forest cover removal releases carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases (GEE) like methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), as a result of burning trees, followed by gradual decomposition of the forest biomass left on the ground while pasture or crop plantations are being established. In Brazil, the 2nd Brazilian National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) presents the mean annual net CO2 emissions caused by changes in land use (LUC) in each Brazilian biome and the first place in the ranking is occupied by the Amazon Rainforest Biome (860,874 Gg), followed by Savannah (302,715 Gg), Atlantic Forest (79,109 Gg), Caatinga (37,628 Gg), Pantanal (16,172 Gg) and Pampa (-102 Gg) (MCT 2010). Despite these results, the estimates of CO2 emissions caused by LUC in the Brazilian semiarid region (Caatinga) are very limited and scarce, and associated to uncertainties directly related to the estimated biomass in different types of vegetation which are spatially distributed within the biome, as well as the correct representation of the dynamics of the deforestation process itself, and the more accurate mapping use and land cover. Based on such facts, this project is estimating the emissions of the main greenhouse gases (CO2, N2O and CH4) caused by land use changes in an area of Caatinga biome in Pernambuco State through the model INPE-EM. So far, it is known that from decades of 1940 up to 1995, Caatinga biome has contributed with about 3.2 % to total land use change emissions in the country, and recently (1990-2005), the contributions of Caatinga are even higher (over 30%), according to the 2nd Brazilian National Communication (2010). By means means of the model INPE-EM (data still being acquired), we are trying to diminish the

  1. Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: assessing the benefits of avoided greenhouse gas emissions using selected CMIP5 climate projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to minimize climate change requires very significant societal effort. To motivate this effort, it is important to clarify the benefits of avoided emissions. To this end, we analysed the impact of four emissions scenarios on future renewable groundwater resources, which range from 1600 GtCO2 during the 21st century (RCP2.6) to 7300 GtCO2 (RCP8.5). Climate modelling uncertainty was taken into account by applying the bias-corrected output of a small ensemble of five CMIP5 global climate models (GCM) as provided by the ISI-MIP effort to the global hydrological model WaterGAP. Despite significant climate model uncertainty, the benefits of avoided emissions with respect to renewable groundwater resources (i.e. groundwater recharge (GWR)) are obvious. The percentage of projected global population (SSP2 population scenario) suffering from a significant decrease of GWR of more than 10% by the 2080s as compared to 1971–2000 decreases from 38% (GCM range 27–50%) for RCP8.5 to 24% (11–39%) for RCP2.6. The population fraction that is spared from any significant GWR change would increase from 29% to 47% if emissions were restricted to RCP2.6. Increases of GWR are more likely to occur in areas with below average population density, while GWR decreases of more than 30% affect especially (semi)arid regions, across all GCMs. Considering change of renewable groundwater resources as a function of mean global temperature (GMT) rise, the land area that is affected by GWR decreases of more than 30% and 70% increases linearly with global warming from 0 to 3 ° C. For each degree of GMT rise, an additional 4% of the global land area (except Greenland and Antarctica) is affected by a GWR decrease of more than 30%, and an additional 1% is affected by a decrease of more than 70%. (letter)

  2. Climate Policy as Expectation Management?

    OpenAIRE

    Narita, Daiju

    2011-01-01

    It is believed that the primary economic solution to climate change is an introduction of a carbon pricing system anchored to the social cost of carbon, either as a form of tax or tradable permits. Potentially significant externalities accompanying the introduction of emission-reducing technologies, however, imply that the standard argument does not capture some important aspects for the designing of climate policy such as expectation-driven technology adoption. By using a simple model, we sh...

  3. Glacial climate driven sedimentation overwhelms tectonics in the battle for control of margin architecture: Southeast Alaska, St. Elias Orogeny

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulick, S. P.; Jaeger, J. M.; Willems, B.; Powell, R. D.; Lowe, L. A.

    2006-12-01

    The interplay of tectonic and climatic processes is fundamental to the development of mountain belts and the ensuing patterns of deformation and erosion. Of equal significance is the interaction of tectonic and climatic processes in the development of orogenic sedimentary basins, or in the case of a coastal mountain belt, in the growth of a continental margin. The Chugach-St. Elias Orogeny, which is driven by the collision of the Yakutat microplate with North America in southeast Alaska, has generated the highest coastal relief in the world. The combined forces of tectonic uplift and glacial erosion have resulted in the accumulation of over 5 km of sediment to form the continental shelf and the creation of the Surveyor Fan that is over 2 km thick proximally. High-resolution GI-gun seismic data allow for detailed examination of the margin architecture off the Bering Glacier within the leading edge of the Yakutat block. The deformation and growth of the margin appears to have first undergone a tectonically dominated phase followed more recently by a glacially dominated phase. During the tectonically dominated period a broad anticline-syncline system helped create accommodation space and the margin both shallowed and widened to its current 50 km width. Based on ties with industry well cuttings, the dominance switched sometime between 0.75 and 1.25 Ma to being completely controlled by glacial advance-retreat patterns. The mappable glacial sequences are undeformed by the underlying anticlines and display several notable features: 1) erosional bases that can often be mapped across the entire shelf, terminating at the shelf edge, 2) little evidence for terminal or retreat moraines on the shelf suggesting very rapid and single phase retreat of the glacier, 3) incomplete glacial sequences due to erosion by later advances, and 4) minimal creation of accommodation space. We investigate the cause of the switch to glacial dominance, the mechanisms and causes of the potentially

  4. Alfvenic behavior of alpha particle driven ion cyclotron emission in TFTR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ion cyclotron emission (ICE) has been observed during D-T discharges in the Tokamak Fusion Test Reactor (TFTR), using rf probes located near the top and bottom of the vacuum vessel. Harmonics of the alpha cyclotron frequency (Ωα) evaluated at the outer midplane plasma edge are observed at the onset of the beam injection phase of TFTR supershots, and persist for approximately 100-250 ms. These results are in contrast with observations of ICE in JET, in which harmonics of Ωα evolve with the alpha population in the plasma edge. Such differences are believed to be due to the fact that newly-born fusion alpha particles are super-Alfvenic near the edge of JET plasmas, while they are sub-Alfvenic near the edge of TFTR supershot plasmas. In TFTR discharges with edge densities such that newly-born alpha particles are super-Alfvenic, alpha cyclotron harmonics are observed to persist. These results are in qualitative agreement with numerical calculations of growth rates due to the magnetoacoustic cyclotron instability

  5. Superradiance driven by coherent spontaneous emission in a Cherenkov free-electron maser amplifier

    CERN Document Server

    Jaroszynski, D A; McNeil, B W J; Robb, G R M; Aitken, P; Phelps, A D R; Cross, A W; Ronald, K; Shpak, V G; Yalandin, M I; Ginzburg, N S

    2000-01-01

    Superradiance (SR) initiated by coherent spontaneous emission (CSE) has been studied in a 35 GHz high gain free-electron Cherenkov maser. We present experimental results that show the development of ultra-short pulses of radiation in the non-linear superradiant regime which are characterised by a quadratic dependence of the intensity on the current. The self-similar pulses that develop have a duration that scales inversely with the fourth root of the intensity leading to three cycle long pulses at the highest intensity (few MW). The non-linear SR regime is preceded by a stage of linear exponential growth of the microwave pulses with a gain length of 1 cm. The superradiant pulse is shown to evolve from a CSE seed by extrapolating the growth curve. Further confirmation of CSE has been obtained by varying the current pulse shape. By varying the slope of the leading edge, and thus the Fourier components of the longitudinal spectral density, we are able to vary the strength of the CSE source. We compare the experi...

  6. Impact of wind-driven rain on historic brick wall buildings in a moderately cold and humid climate: Numerical analyses of mould growth risk, indoor climate and energy consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masaru, Abuku; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

    2009-01-01

    This paper gives an onset to whole building hygrothermal modelling in which the interaction between interior and exterior climates via building enclosures is simulated under a moderately cold and humid climate. The focus is particularly on the impact of wind-driven rain (WDR) oil the hygrothermal...... that WDR loads can have a significant impact on mould growth especially at the edges of the walls. Finally, for the case analysed, the WDR load Causes a significant increase of indoor relative humidity and energy consumption for heating. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved....

  7. Indoor air pollution by organic emissions from textile floor coverings. Climate chamber studies under dynamic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollinger, S.; Levsen, K.; Wünsch, G.

    The time dependence of the emission of organic compounds from a polyamide floor covering with styrene-butadiene-rubber (SBR) backing was studied in three climate chambers (0.03, 1.0 and 38 m 3) at 23°C 5nd 45% RH. While volatile compounds such as toluene reach a maximum concentration in the gas phase within 1 h and decrease in concentration to less than 2% within 60 h, the concentration of less volatile compounds, such as 4-phenylcyclohexene, decreases slowly over a period of months. If the chamber is well mixed and a defined chamber loading is maintained the observed concentrations do not depend on the chamber size, the wall material and air velocity. The concentration of the observed emissions is roughly proportional to the chamber loading. Surprisingly it is not inversely proportional to the air exchange rate. Rather, at high air exchange rates mass transfer from the carpet to the gas phase is enhanced. The "decreasing source models" of Dunn and Tichenor ( Atmospheric Environment22, 885-894, 1988) have been applied to the data. They allow the extrapolation of experimental data beyond the time available for measurement. The model calculations reveal the presence of sink effects. The role of the chamber walls as sinks can be determined more reliably if constant sources of an organic compound are placed into the chamber and their increase in concentration with time is compared with the theoretical predictions neglecting sink effects.

  8. Climate Change and Agriculture: Can market governance mechanisms reduce emissions from the food system fairly and effectively?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnett, Tara

    2012-05-15

    Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked: the climate affects agricultural production and is itself affected by agricultural emissions. Agriculture is responsible for 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. How agriculture is practised therefore has significant potential for mitigating climate change, for providing food security and for improving the livelihoods of millions of food producers worldwide. There is growing interest in the use of market governance mechanisms for tackling climate change by giving the financial incentives to make the kinds of changes that are required. But how widely are these mechanisms being used in agriculture, and are they effective in reducing emissions? What impact do they have on adaptation and other aspects of sustainable development? Are they able to balance the competing demands of producers and consumers, the environment and food security? The key messages emerging from this study are that economic measures have a vital part to play within this regulatory context, but they need to be designed with care. To be effective, emissions from food production and consumption must be addressed together. If not, emissions reduced in one region will simply be displaced elsewhere. A balance needs to be struck by applying a mix of approaches – regulatory, economic, voluntary, and information: no single measure will be effective in achieving emissions reductions on its own. 'Soft' measures, such as voluntary agreements and information have a part to play in providing an enabling context for action, but they must be backed up by 'harder' regulatory or economic measures. Regulation, in the form of a cap on emissions, is a prerequisite for other market governance measures to function well. To be effective, MGMs need to consider the social, cultural and economic context within which they operate.

  9. Investigations of BVOC-SOA-cloud-climate feedbacks via interactive biogenic emissions using NorESM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alterskjær, Kari; Egill Kristjansson, Jon; Grini, Alf; Iversen, Trond; Kirkevåg, Alf; Olivié, Dirk; Schulz, Michael; Seland, Øyvind

    2016-04-01

    Climate feedbacks represent a large source of uncertainty in future climate projections. One such feedback involves a change in emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) under global warming and a subsequent change in cloud radiative effects. Parts of the atmospheric BVOCs will oxidize in the atmosphere, which may reduce their volatility enough to form secondary organic aerosols (SOA). A changed SOA load will affect cloud radiative properties through aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) and therefore act to reduce or enhance the temperature change resulting from greenhouse gases alone. In order to study this effect, a development version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM) has been extended to include explicit atmospheric particle nucleation and a treatment of SOA based on work by Risto Makkonen and collaborators. Biogenic sources of monoterpene and isoprene are interactively calculated by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), version 2.1, incorporated into the Community Land Model, version 4.5. Monoterpene and isoprene are oxidized by O3, OH and NO3 to form SOA with a yield of 15 % and 5 % respectively. It is assumed that 50 % of the product from monoterpene ozonolysis is of low enough volatility to nucleate new particles. The remaining oxidized BVOCs condensate onto preexisting particles. The model improvements include three new tracers to account for both SOA and the BVOCs. This allows for transport of both SOA and precursor gases, making it possible for SOA to form above the surface layer of the model. The new SOA treatment also changes the size distribution of most model aerosols due to condensation. Preliminary results from 6-year simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures show that the present day emissions of both isoprene (435.9 Tg/yr) and monoterpenes (121.4 Tg/yr) are within the range found in other studies. The resulting SOA production is on the order of 77 Tg/yr, also within the range found by

  10. What Form of Climate Justice? A Challenge to the Idea of Emissions Rights and Permits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    With the next Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) coming up in Paris in late 2015, it is probably a good time to examine the philosophical foundations underpinning discussions on the -largely economic- mechanisms likely to modify the behaviour of the main greenhouse-gas emitters. That is, at any rate, the aim of this article by Frederic-Paul Piguet on the notion of 'climate justice', which questions the pertinence of emissions rights and permits, and examines how the limits of the biosphere should be respected, on the basis of the principle of not doing harm to others. After reminding us of the principles of distributive justice as this applies in the environmental field, Piguet demonstrates the inability of that theory to confront the biosphere for what it is: namely, the fundamental precondition for humanity's common good, which must be respected in a way that transcends the generations, its equilibrium taking precedence over all other considerations, including the economic. Applying this conception, the limits of the biosphere must not be evaluated in terms of a 'sociologized' judgment, as is the case at the moment, but an 'ecologized' one, 'recognizing the part of the biosphere that isn't available for humanity's use and mustn't be touched.' Hence the impossibility of distributing emissions rights for the levels that infringe on this untouchable part, and the inadequacy of theories of distributive justice in this regard. Stressing the fact that the capacities of the biosphere cannot be treated as extendable 'spoils' to be shared out, he sees the prohibition on doing harm as the principle that can set the biosphere in its rightful place as the fundamental precondition for the common good. Consequently, high levels of emissions can only be granted a 'transitory tolerance' that underscores their lack of legitimacy. (author)

  11. Laser Absorption spectrometer instrument for tomographic 2D-measurement of climate gas emission from soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidel, Anne; Wagner, Steven; Dreizler, Andreas; Ebert, Volker

    2014-05-01

    One of the most intricate effects in climate modelling is the role of permafrost thawing during the global warming process. Soil that has formerly never totally lost its ice cover now emits climate gases due to melting processes[1]. For a better prediction of climate development and possible feedback mechanisms, insights into physical procedures (like e.g. gas emission from underground reservoirs) are required[2]. Therefore, a long-term quantification of greenhouse gas concentrations (and further on fluxes) is necessary and the related structures that are responsible for emission need to be identified. In particular the spatial heterogeneity of soils caused by soil internal structures (e.g. soil composition changes or surface cracks) or by surface modifications (e.g. by plant growth) generate considerable complexities and difficulties for local measurements, for example with soil chambers. For such situations, which often cannot be avoided, a spatially resolved 2D-measurement to identify and quantify the gas emission from the structured soil would be needed, to better understand the influence of the soil sub-structures on the emission behavior. Thus we designed a spatially scanning laser absorption spectrometer setup to determine a 2D-gas concentration map in the soil-air boundary layer. The setup is designed to cover the surfaces in the range of square meters in a horizontal plane above the soil to be investigated. Existing field instruments for gas concentration or flux measurements are based on point-wise measurements, so structure identification is very tedious or even impossible. For this reason, we have developed a tomographic in-situ instrument based on TDLAS ('tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy') that delivers absolute gas concentration distributions of areas with 0.8m × 0.8m size, without any need for reference measurements with a calibration gas. It is a simple and robust device based on a combination of scanning mirrors and reflecting foils, so

  12. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions

    OpenAIRE

    Zeebe, Richard E.

    2013-01-01

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth’s surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth’s climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually consid...

  13. Offshore wind energy climate projection using UPSCALE climate data under the RCP8.5 emission scenario

    CERN Document Server

    Gross, Markus

    2015-01-01

    Recently it was demonstrated how climate data can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular it was shown that the quality of the global scale estimate compared well with regional high resolution studies and a link between surface temperature and moist density in the estimate was presented. In the present paper the methodology is tested further, to ensure that the results using one climate data set are reliable. This is achieved by extending the study to include four ensemble members. With the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient a climate change data set, which was also a result of the UPSCALE experiment, is analyzed. This, for the first time, provides a projection of future changes in wind power resources using this data set. This climate change data set is based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. This provides guidance for developers and policy makers to mitigate and adapt.

  14. Analyzing the effect of the longwave emissivity and solar reflectance of building envelopes on energy-saving in buildings in various climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shi, Zhiyang; Zhang, Xiong [Key Laboratory of Advanced Civil Engineering Materials of Education Ministry, Tongji University, 1239 Siping Road, Shanghai 200092 (China)

    2011-01-15

    A dynamic computer simulation is carried out in the climates of 35 cities distributed around the world. The variation of the annual air-conditioning energy loads due to changes in the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance of the building envelopes is studied to find the most appropriate exterior building finishes in various climates (including a tropical climate, a subtropical climate, a mountain plateau climate, a frigid-temperate climate and a temperate climate). Both the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance are set from 0.1 to 0.9 with an interval of 0.1 in the simulation. The annual air-conditioning energy loads trends of each city are listed in a chart. The results show that both the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance of building envelopes play significant roles in energy-saving for buildings. In tropical climates, the optical parameters of the building exterior surface affect the building energy-saving most significantly. In the mountain plateau climates and the subarctic climates, the impacts on energy-saving in buildings due to changes in the longwave emissivity and the solar reflectance are still considerable, but in the temperate continental climates and the temperate maritime climates, only limited effects are seen. (author)

  15. Consistent climate-driven spatial patterns of terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes in the northern hemisphere: a theoretical framework and synthesis of empirical evidence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, G.; Niu, S.; Chen, Z.; Zhu, X.

    2013-12-01

    A predictive understanding of the terrestrial ecosystem carbon fluxes has been developed slowly, largely owing to lack of broad generalizations and a theoretical framework as well as clearly defined hypotheses. We synthesized Eddy flux data in different regions of northern hemisphere and previously published papers, then developed a framework for the climate controls on the geoecological patterns of terrestrial ecosystem C fluxes, and proposed the underlying mechanisms. Based on the case studies and synthesis, we found that the spatial patterns of ecosystem C fluxes in China, Asia, three continents of the northern hemisphere all had general patterns: predominately controlled by temperature and precipitation, supporting and further developing the traditional theory of 'climate controls on the spatial patterns of ecosystem productivity' in Miami and other models. Five hypotheses were proposed to explain the ecological mechanisms and processes that attribute to the climate-driven spatial patterns of C fluxes. (1) Two key processes determining gross primary productivity (GPP), i.e. growing season length and carbon uptake capacity, are jointly controlled by temperature and precipitation; (2) Ecosystem respiration (ER) is predominately determined also by temperature and precipitation, as well as substrate supply; (3) Components of ecosystem C fluxes are closely coupled with each other in response to climate change; (4) Vegetation types and soil nutrients in particular area are fundamentally determined by environmental factors, which may impact C fluxes within a certain range, but couldn't change the climate-driven pattern of C fluxes at large scale, (5) Land use only changes the magnitude of C fluxes, but doesn't change the spatial patterns and their climate dependence. All of these hypotheses were well validated by the evidences of data synthesis, which could provide the foundation for a theoretical framework for better understanding and predicting geoecological

  16. Quantitative assessment of emissions of climate-relevant gases from biogas plants; Quantitative Bewertung von Emissionen klimarelevanter Gase aus Biogasanlagen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Liebetrau, Jan; Reuschel, Christiane [DBFZ DeutschesBiomasseForschungsZentrum gGmbH, Leipzig (Germany). Biochemische Konversion; Clemens, Joachim; Hafermann, Carsten [gewitra mbH, Troisdorf (Germany); Weiland, Peter; Friehe, Joerg [Johann Heinrich von Thuenen-Institut - Bundesinstitut fuer Laendliche Raeume, Wald und Fischerei (vTI), Braunschweig (Germany). Inst. fuer Agrartechnologie

    2011-07-01

    Precise measurement of the emissions of biogas plants is a prerequisite for differentiated balancing of climate-relevant gaseous emissions. For this purpose, 10 biogas plants each were investigated in two measuring campaigns. With the exception of two plants, no avoidable emissions were found. During operation, emissions occurred mainly in open storage of fermentation residue and in the cogeneration plant. Emissions were higher when recirculated material was used. [German] Eine praezise Bestimmung der Emissionen aus Biogasanlagen ist eine wesentliche Voraussetzung fuer eine differenzierte Bilanzierung der Treibhausgasemissionen. Zur Bestimmung dieser Emissionen wurden in zwei Messkampagnen jeweils 10 Anlagen untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass vermeidbare Emissionen an den Anlagen bis auf zwei Einzelfaelle nicht auftraten. Betriebsbedingte Emissionen traten im Wesentlichen in der offenen Gaerrestlagerung und am BHKW auf. Bei der Beschickung konnte festgestellt werden, dass sich mit der Verwendung von Rezirkulat die Emissionen erhoehen.

  17. A laboratory acoustic emission experiment and numerical simulation of rock fracture driven by a high-pressure fluid source

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xinglin Lei

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available In order to improve our understanding of rock fracture and fault instability driven by high-pressure fluid sources, the authors carried out rock fracture tests using granite under a confining pressure of 80 MPa with fluid injection in the laboratory. Furthermore, we tested a number of numerical models using the FLAC3D modeling software to find the best model to represent the experimental results. The high-speed multichannel acoustic emission (AE waveform recording system used in this study made it possible to examine the total fracture process through detailed monitoring of AE hypocenters and seismic velocity. The experimental results show that injecting high-pressure oil into the rock sample can induce AE activity at very low stress levels and can dramatically reduce the strength of the rock. The results of the numerical simulations show that major experimental results, including the strength, the temporal and spatial patterns of the AE events, and the role of the fluid can be represented fairly well by a model involving (1 randomly distributed defect elements to model pre-existing cracks, (2 random modification of rock properties to represent inhomogeneity introduced by different mineral grains, and (3 macroscopic inhomogeneity. Our study, which incorporates laboratory experiments and numerical simulations, indicates that such an approach is helpful in finding a better model not only for simulating experimental results but also for upscaling purposes.

  18. Global emission trading. A solution to the challenges of global climate change?; Globaler Emissionshandel. Loesung fuer die Herausforderungen des Klimawandels?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mueller, Friedemann [Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik, Berlin (Germany)

    2010-10-15

    The international climate policy has reached a dead end, and a solution is difficult. Since the 15th climate conference in Copenhagen, pessimism prevails. Hardly anyone believes that a common solution can be found before the next conference at Cancun. On the other hand, time is running out as the validity time of the Kyoto Protocol will end in 2012, and the need for slowing down global climate change is calling for fast action. To find a solution, it will be necessary not only to bridge the deep gap between industrialized countries and threshold countries, but also, within each society, to bridge the deep gap between climate activists on the one hand and the public opinion on the other hand. Global emission trading may offer a way out of the current dilemma. (orig.)

  19. Assessing the uncertainties of climate policies and mitigation measures. Viewpoints on biofuel production, grid electricity consumption and differentiation of emission reduction commitments

    OpenAIRE

    Soimakallio, Sampo

    2012-01-01

    Ambitious climate change mitigation requires the implementation of effective and equitable climate policy and GHG emission reduction measures. The objective of this study was to explore the significance of the uncertainties related to GHG emission reduction measures and policies by providing viewpoints on biofuels production, grid electricity consumption and differentiation of emission reduction commitments between countries and country groups. Life cycle assessment (LCA) and macro-level scen...

  20. Estimating the climate and air quality benefits of aviation fuel and emissions reductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dorbian, Christopher S.; Wolfe, Philip J.; Waitz, Ian A.

    2011-05-01

    In this study we consider the implications of our current understanding of aviation climate impacts as it relates to the ratio of non-CO 2 to CO 2 effects from aviation. We take as inputs recent estimates from the literature of the magnitude of the component aviation impacts and associated uncertainties. We then employ a simplified probabilistic impulse response function model for the climate and a range of damage functions to estimate the ratio of non-CO 2 to CO 2 impacts of aviation for a range of different metrics, scientific assumptions, future background emissions scenarios, economic growth scenarios, and discount rates. We take cost-benefit analysis as our primary context and thus focus on integral metrics that can be related to damages: the global warming potential, the time-integrated change in surface temperature, and the net present value of damages. We also present results based on an endpoint metric, the global temperature change potential. These latter results would be more appropriate for use in a cost-effectiveness framework (e.g., with a well-defined policy target for the anthropogenic change in surface temperature at a specified time in the future). We find that the parameter that most influences the ratio of non-CO 2 to CO 2 impacts of aviation is the discount rate, or analogously the time window used for physical metrics; both are expressions of the relative importance of long-lived versus short-lived impacts. Second to this is the influence of the radiative forcing values that are assumed for aviation-induced cloudiness effects. Given the large uncertainties in short-lived effects from aviation, and the dominating influence of discounting or time-windowing, we find that the choice of metric is relatively less influential. We express the ratios of non-CO 2 to CO 2 impacts on a per unit fuel burn basis so that they can be multiplied by a social cost of carbon to estimate the additional benefits of fuel burn reductions from aviation beyond those

  1. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 μg m-3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere's near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth's surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m-2. This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR's CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol treatment of GU-WRF/Chem and cannot simulate the impacts of changing climate and emissions with the same level of detailed

  2. Differentiating between Land Use and Climate-driven Change using Long-term Vegetation Index Trends adjusted for Precipitation on the Mongolian Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    John, R.; Chen, J.; Kim, Y.; Yang, Z.; Xiao, J.; Shao, C.; Batkhishig, O.

    2014-12-01

    The Mongolian plateau is undergoing consistent warming in addition to an increase in extreme climatic events. Land cover/land use change has accelerated over the past three decades, owing to post liberalization socio-economic changes in Inner Mongolia, China (IM) Mongolia (MG) which have different political systems. Extensive anthropomorphic modifications of ecosystems have the ability to alter the structure and function of ecosystems and ecological processes such as the carbon and water cycle and it is therefore important to differentiate between such changes from climate-driven changes. This study identified climate-driven and human-induced changes in vegetation cover on the Mongolian plateau across desert, grassland and forest biomes as well as administrative divisions. We applied non-parametric trend tests on time series of vegetation index datasets that include MODIS EVI, Vegetation Index and Phenology (VIP) EVI2, and GIMMS 3g as well as precipitation and temperature obtained from TRMM and MERRA reanalysis datasets. We then correlated the VI trends with the climate drivers to determine and isolate primary climate drivers. VI residuals obtained from the regression of composites of peak season maximum VI and JJA monthly accumulated rainfall were analyzed for detection of trends in vegetation greenness not explained by rainfall dynamics over different time periods (2000-2012, and 1981 to 2010). In addition, we obtained trends in socioeconomic variables like total livestock and population density which were closely correlated with VI residual trends adjusted for rainfall. Some administrative subdivisions in IM and MG showed a decreasing trend in residuals that could be attributed to anthropogenic activity such as grazing, or urbanization, while other subdivisions showed an increasing trend in residuals increasing trend in residuals suggest that vegetation cover has improved and perhaps be attributed to restoration and conservation efforts.

  3. Extent and agenda of emission reduction policies in front of climate risks: lessons learned from integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    After having highlighted the main difficulties met when trying to take decisions on emission reductions (i.e. disequilibrium between short term action and long term dynamics, series of uncertainties, lack of a clear information on threats), this research aims at studying the extent and the agenda of CO2 emission reduction efforts at a global scale. First, the author explores under various perspectives the relationship between the extent of climate change and the extent of its impacts and modes of analysis of climate policies. Then, he examines how different attitudes towards the climate risk are translated into recommendations for action which are obtained by always more complex models. In order to compare results, simulations are performed, based on optimal control models belonging to the RESPONSE family. Three different options or attitudes are then studied and assessed with RESPONSE: firstly, the uncertainty on impact and damage assessment is still too important to have confidence in present assessments; secondly, while being sceptical on damage assessment, more confidence is given to climate model results, and thirdly, an explicit representation of climate damages is used to introduce rationality issues in the debate on risks

  4. Photosynthesis-dependent Isoprene Emission from Leaf to Planet in a Global Carbon-chemistry-climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zeng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Alienov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; Heinesch, B.; Hewitt, C. N.; Karl, T.; Laffineur, Q.; Langford, B.; McKinney, K. A.; Misztal, P.; Potosnak, M.; Rinne, J.; Pressley, S.; Schoon, N.; Serca, D.

    2013-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the FarquharBallBerry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50 of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 6496) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr1 that increases by 30 in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55 for potential natural vegetation.

  5. Photosynthesis-dependent isoprene emission from leaf to planet in a global carbon–chemistry–climate model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Unger

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the Farquhar/Ball–Berry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry–climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry–climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs, prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis reproduces 50% of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2= 64–96% and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 Tg C yr-1 that increases by 30% in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55% for potential natural vegetation.

  6. Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Posch

    2007-09-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically feasible reductions (MFR. Future climate (temperature and precipitation was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2. The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change. Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. Predicted changes in dissolved organic carbon induced by reductions in acid deposition or increases in temperature may potentially influence the recovery of surface waters from acidification and may offset the increase in pH resulting from S deposition reductions. However, many climate-induced changes in processes are generally not incorporated in current versions of acidification models. To allow more reliable forecasts, the mechanisms by

  7. Sensitivity of stream flow droughts, water shortage and water stress events to ENSO driven inter-annual climate variability at the global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, Ted I. E.; Aerts, Jeroen C. J. H.; Ward, Philip J.

    2014-05-01

    Governments and institutions managing water resources have to adapt constantly to regional drought, water shortage and water stress conditions, being caused by climate change, socio-economic developments and/or climate variability. Taking into account the impact of climate variability is important as in some regions it may outweigh long-term climate change or socio-economic developments, especially on a time scale of a few years up to a few decades. As governments and water management institutions apply planning horizons up to a decade with respect to management of adaptation strategies, inter-annual climate variability is especially relevant. A number of studies have estimated the impacts of climate variability on stream flow droughts on a local, continental or global scale. Others have focused on the role of long term climate change and socio-economic trends on blue water availability, shortage and stress. However, a global assessment of the influence of inter-annual climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, shortage and stress together has not yet been carried out, despite its importance for adaptation planning. To address this issue, we assessed the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on stream flow droughts, blue water availability, and shortage and stress events at the global scale. Within this contribution we focused on El Nino Southern Oscillation's (ENSO) impact as ENSO is the most dominant source of inter-annual climate variability, impacting climate and society. We carried out this assessment through the following steps: (1) used daily discharge and run-off time-series (0.5º x 0.5º) of three WATCH forced global hydrological models (WaterGAP, PCR-GLOBWB, and STREAM); (2) in combination with time-series of population counts and monthly water demands we calculated monthly and yearly stream flow drought, water availability, water shortage and water stress per Food Producing Unit (FPU) for the period 1960-2000; and (3

  8. Climate Science Centers: An "Existence Theorem" for a Federal-University Partnership to Develop Actionable and Needs-Driven Science Agendas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, B., III

    2014-12-01

    Climate Science Centers: An "Existence Theorem" for a Federal-University Partnership to Develop Actionable and Needs-Driven Science Agendas. Berrien Moore III (University of Oklahoma) The South Central Climate Science Center (CSC) is one of eight regional centers established by the Department of the Interior (DoI) under Secretarial Order 3289 to address the impacts of climate change on America's water, land, and other natural and cultural resources. Under DoI leadership and funding, these CSCs will provide scientific information tools and techniques to study impacts of climate change synthesize and integrate climate change impact data develop tools that the DoI managers and partners can use when managing the DOI's land, water, fish and wildlife, and cultural heritage resources (emphasis added) The network of Climate Science Centers will provide decision makers with the science, tools, and information they need to address the impacts of climate variability and change on their areas of responsibility. Note from Webster, a tool is a device for doing work; it makes outcomes more realizable and more cost effective, and, in a word, better. Prior to the existence of CSCs, the university and federal scientific world certainly contained a large "set" of scientists with considerable strength in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address the complexities and interdisciplinary nature of the challenges in the areas of climate variability, change, impacts, and adaptation. However, this set of scientists were hardly an integrated community let alone a focused team, but rather a collection of distinguished researchers, educators, and practitioners that were working with disparate though at times linked objectives, and they were rarely aligning themselves formally to an overarching strategic pathway. In addition, data, models, research results, tools, and products were generally somewhat "disconnected" from the broad range of stakeholders. I should note also

  9. What's so local about global climate change? Testing social theories of environmental degradation to quantify the demographic, economic, and governmental factors associated with energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in U.S. metropolitan areas and counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribbia, John Luke

    . The STIRPAT method is used to test four social theories of environmental degradation -- the treadmill of production, ecological modernization, urban ecological transitions, and human ecology theories -- by quantifying variables associated with energy use and CO2 emissions drawn from each theory. The specific findings demonstrate that various demographic, economic, and governmental factors are related strongly to metropolitan area energy consumption and county-level CO2 emissions. The human ecology, treadmill of production, and urban ecological transitions theories are important to explaining how and why climate-related impacts differ for a wide variety of local areas in the United States. Related to human ecology and treadmill of production theory, environmental degradation is highest in metropolitan areas and counties with large populations and large economies that have various mechanisms in place to facilitate economic growth. By contrast, some U.S. counties are beginning to remedy their impact on the environment by applying economic and governmental resources toward the mitigation of CO2 emissions, which provides evidence of support for urban ecological transitions theory. However, because climate change is a complex cross-scale global environmental problem and the results in this dissertation confirm that this problem is locally driven by similar population and economic factors also affecting the climate at larger spatial scales, mitigation efforts to reduce energy use and emissions at the local level will be fruitless without a well-coordinated, cross-scale (local to global) ideological shift that puts less priority on economic goals and more on environmental sustainability. These results, and the methodological and theoretical framework applied in this dissertation, thus provide a useful platform for the successful application of future research that specifically addresses mitigation strategies to reduce local-level environmental impacts. This dissertation

  10. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from organic and conventional cereal-based cropping systems under different management, soil and climate factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doltra, J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Báez, D;

    2015-01-01

    Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture should be assessed across cropping systems and agroclimatic regions. In this study, we investigate the ability of the FASSET model to analyze differences in the magnitude of N2O emissions due to soil, climate and management factors in cereal......-based cropping systems. Forage maize was grown in a conventional dairy system at Mabegondo (NW Spain) and wheat and barley in organic and conventional crop rotations at Foulum (NW Denmark). These two European sites represent agricultural areas with high and low to moderate emission levels, respectively. Field...... static chamber method with more frequent measurements post-fertilization and biweekly measurements when high fluxes were not expected. All cropping systems were simulated with the FASSET version 2.5 simulation model. Cumulative soil seasonal N2O emissions were about ten-fold higher at Mabegondo than at...

  11. The increase in the perception of the climatic change and the energy systems without emissions of coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    In the last 20 years, the phenomenon of the climatic change due to the gases emission of greenhouse effect has become from a topic of scientific study to discussion problem in the political spheres of most high level to world scale. In summary, at the present time it has a generalized public perception that the gas emissions of greenhouse effect generated by anthropogenic activities, they have been increased to such size that they are causing a greenhouse effect in the terrestrial atmosphere with their consequent impact of global heating. In this work a description of the science behind the phenomenon is presented, of the evidences that the believers show, the arguments that present the sceptic persons and the actions to reduce those emissions that have proposed the pragmatic people. A brief summary of the main technologies considered for the energy sector of X XI century so that they reduce those emissions is also presented. (Author)

  12. The effect of future reduction in aerosol emissions on climate extremes in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Zhili; Lin, Lei; Yang, Meilin; Xu, Yangyang

    2016-01-01

    This study investigates the effect of reduced aerosol emissions on projected temperature and precipitation extremes in China during 2031-2050 and 2081-2100 relative to present-day conditions using the daily data output from the Community Earth System Model ensemble simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 with an applied aerosol reduction and RCP8.5 with fixed 2005 aerosol emissions (RCP8.5_FixA) scenarios. The reduced aerosol emissions of RCP8.5 magnify the warming effect due to greenhouse gases (GHG) and lead to significant increases in temperature extremes, such as the maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), and tropical nights (TR), and precipitation extremes, such as the maximum 5-day precipitation amount, number of heavy precipitation days, and annual total precipitation from days ˃95th percentile, in China. The projected TXx, TNn, and TR averaged over China increase by 1.2 ± 0.2 °C (4.4 ± 0.2 °C), 1.3 ± 0.2 °C (4.8 ± 0.2 °C), and 8.2 ± 1.2 (30.9 ± 1.4) days, respectively, during 2031-2050 (2081-2100) under the RCP8.5_FixA scenario, whereas the corresponding values are 1.6 ± 0.1 °C (5.3 ± 0.2 °C), 1.8 ± 0.2 °C (5.6 ± 0.2 °C), and 11.9 ± 0.9 (38.4 ± 1.0) days under the RCP8.5 scenario. Nationally averaged increases in all of those extreme precipitation indices above due to the aerosol reduction account for more than 30 % of the extreme precipitation increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Moreover, the aerosol reduction leads to decreases in frost days and consecutive dry days averaged over China. There are great regional differences in changes of climate extremes caused by the aerosol reduction. When normalized by global mean surface temperature changes, aerosols have larger effects on temperature and precipitation extremes over China than GHG.

  13. Radiative forcing and climate metrics for ozone precursor emissions: the impact of multi-model averaging

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. R. MacIntosh

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Multi-model ensembles are frequently used to assess understanding of the response of ozone and methane lifetime to changes in emissions of ozone precursors such as NOx, VOC and CO. When these ozone changes are used to calculate radiative forcing (RF (and climate metrics such as the global warming potential (GWP and global temperature potential (GTP there is a methodological choice, determined partly by the available computing resources, as to whether the mean ozone (and methane lifetime changes are input to the radiation code, or whether each model's ozone and methane changes are used as input, with the average RF computed from the individual model RFs. We use data from the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution Source-Receptor global chemical transport model ensemble to assess the impact of this choice for emission changes in 4 regions (East Asia, Europe, North America and South Asia. We conclude that using the multi-model mean ozone and methane responses is accurate for calculating the mean RF, with differences up to 0.6% for CO, 0.7% for VOC and 2% for NOx. Differences of up to 60% for NOx 7% for VOC and 3% for CO are introduced into the 20 year GWP as a result of the exponential decay terms, with similar values for the 20 years GTP. However, estimates of the SD calculated from the ensemble-mean input fields (where the SD at each point on the model grid is added to or subtracted from the mean field are almost always substantially larger in RF, GWP and GTP metrics than the true SD, and can be larger than the model range for short-lived ozone RF, and for the 20 and 100 year GWP and 100 year GTP. We find that the effect is generally most marked for the case of NOx emissions, where the net effect is a smaller residual of terms of opposing signs. For example, the SD for the 20 year GWP is two to three times larger using the ensemble-mean fields than using the individual models to calculate the RF. Hence, while the average of multi

  14. Presentation of an Innovative Zero-Emission Cycle for Mitigating the Global Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philippe Mathieu

    1998-06-01

    Full Text Available In the spectrum of possible options to cope with the global climate change, a novel technology based on the zero CO2 emission MATIANT cycle (contraction of the names of the 2 designers : MATHIEU and IANTOVSKI is presented here. This latter is basically a regenerative gas cycle operating on CO2 as the working fluid and using O2 as the fuel oxidiser in the combustion chambers. The cycle uses the highest temperatures and pressures compatible with the most advanced materials in the steam and gas turbines. In addition, reheat and staged compression with intercooling are used. Therefore the optimized cycle efficiency rises up to around 45% when operating on natural gas. A big asset of the system is its ability to remove totally the CO2 produced in the combustion process in liquid or supercritical state and at high pressure, making it ready for transportation, for reuse or for final storage. It avoids the cost in performance (decrease of efficiency and power output and in money of the CO2 capture by a MEA scrubber. The assets and drawbacks of the cycle are mentioned. The technical issues for the design of a prototype plant are examined.

  15. Indoor pollution by organic emissions from textile floor coverings: Climate test chamber studies under static conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sollinger, S.; Levsen, K.; Wünsch, G.

    The emission of organic compounds from textile floor coverings was studied in a climate test chamber under static conditions (zero air exchange) in order to test the parameters which influence such chamber experiments, i.e. the temperature, the humidity and the adsorption on the walls. While depending on the volatility and the polarity of the compound, the equilibrium concentrations increase in part substantially with increasing temperature, the humidity has little impact on the observed concentrations. The chamber walls represent an important sink for polar and less volatile compounds, although this sink does not influence the equilibrium concentrations. Ten textile floor coverings have been tested (7 of which had a polyamide pile and a styrene-butadiene rubber backing). Ninety-nine compounds have been identified. The equilibrium concentrations of 20 compounds have been determined. These equilibrium concentrations do not depend on the sample size, the sample loading nor on wall effects, in contrast to the dynamic method, where these parameters play an important role.

  16. Cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reactions of halogenated molecules adsorbed on ice surfaces: Implications for atmospheric ozone depletion and global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    The cosmic-ray-driven electron-induced reaction of halogenated molecules adsorbed on ice surfaces has been proposed as a new mechanism for the formation of the polar ozone hole. Here, experimental findings of dissociative electron transfer reactions of halogenated molecules on ice surfaces in electron stimulated desorption, electron trapping and femtosecond time-resolved laser spectroscopic measurements are reviewed. This is followed by a review of the evidence from recent satellite observations of this new mechanism for the Antarctic ozone hole, and all other possible physical mechanisms are discussed. Moreover, new observations of the 11-year cyclic variations of both polar ozone loss and stratospheric cooling and the seasonal variations of CFCs and CH4 in the polar stratosphere are presented, and quantitative predictions of the Antarctic ozone hole in the future are given. Finally, a new observation of the effects of CFCs and cosmic-ray-driven ozone depletion on global climate change is also presented and discussed.

  17. Uncertainty in projected climate change caused by methodological discrepancy in estimating CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilcaille, Yann; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Lecocq, Franck; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Mohr, Steve; Andres, Robert J.; Bopp, Laurent

    2016-04-01

    There are different methodologies to estimate CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion. The term "methodology" refers to the way subtypes of fossil fuels are aggregated and their implied emissions factors. This study investigates how the choice of a methodology impacts historical and future CO2 emissions, and ensuing climate change projections. First, we use fossil fuel extraction data from the Geologic Resources Supply-Demand model of Mohr et al. (2015). We compare four different methodologies to transform amounts of fossil fuel extracted into CO2 emissions based on the methodologies used by Mohr et al. (2015), CDIAC, EDGARv4.3, and IPCC 1996. We thus obtain 4 emissions pathways, for the historical period 1750-2012, that we compare to the emissions timeseries from EDGARv4.3 (1970-2012) and CDIACv2015 (1751-2011). Using the 3 scenarios by Mohr et al. (2015) for projections till 2300 under the assumption of an Early (Low emission), Best Guess or Late (High emission) extraction peaking, we obtain 12 different pathways of CO2 emissions over 1750-2300. Second, we extend these CO2-only pathways to all co-emitted and climatically active species. Co-emission ratios for CH4, CO, BC, OC, SO2, VOC, N2O, NH3, NOx are calculated on the basis of the EDGAR v4.3 dataset, and are then used to produce complementary pathways of non-CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion only. Finally, the 12 emissions scenarios are integrated using the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2, in order to quantify the impact of the selected driver onto climate change projections. We find historical cumulative fossil fuel CO2 emissions from 1750 to 2012 ranging from 365 GtC to 392 GtC depending upon the methodology used to convert fossil fuel into CO2 emissions. We notice a drastic increase of the impact of the methodology in the projections. For the High emission scenario with Late fuel extraction peaking, cumulated CO2 emissions from 1700 to 2100 range from 1505 GtC to 1685 GtC; this corresponds

  18. Including adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change in a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm framework for urban water supply systems incorporating GHG emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paton, F. L.; Maier, H. R.; Dandy, G. C.

    2014-08-01

    Cities around the world are increasingly involved in climate action and mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, in the context of responding to climate pressures in the water sector, very few studies have investigated the impacts of changing water use on GHG emissions, even though water resource adaptation often requires greater energy use. Consequently, reducing GHG emissions, and thus focusing on both mitigation and adaptation responses to climate change in planning and managing urban water supply systems, is necessary. Furthermore, the minimization of GHG emissions is likely to conflict with other objectives. Thus, applying a multiobjective evolutionary algorithm (MOEA), which can evolve an approximation of entire trade-off (Pareto) fronts of multiple objectives in a single run, would be beneficial. Consequently, the main aim of this paper is to incorporate GHG emissions into a MOEA framework to take into consideration both adaptation and mitigation responses to climate change for a city's water supply system. The approach is applied to a case study based on Adelaide's southern water supply system to demonstrate the framework's practical management implications. Results indicate that trade-offs exist between GHG emissions and risk-based performance, as well as GHG emissions and economic cost. Solutions containing rainwater tanks are expensive, while GHG emissions greatly increase with increased desalinated water supply. Consequently, while desalination plants may be good adaptation options to climate change due to their climate-independence, rainwater may be a better mitigation response, albeit more expensive.

  19. Climate Benefits of U.S. EPA Programs and Policies That Reduced Methane Emissions 1993-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melvin, April M; Sarofim, Marcus C; Crimmins, Allison R

    2016-07-01

    The United States (U.S.) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has established voluntary programs to reduce methane (CH4) emissions, and regulations that either directly reduce CH4 or provide co-benefits of reducing CH4 emissions while controlling for other air pollutants. These programs and regulations address four sectors that are among the largest domestic CH4 emissions sources: municipal solid waste landfills, oil and natural gas, coal mining, and agricultural manure management. Over the 1993-2013 time period, 127.9 Tg of CH4 emissions reductions were attributed to these programs, equal to about 18% of the counterfactual (or potential) domestic emissions over that time, with almost 70% of the abatement due to landfill sector regulations. Reductions attributed to the voluntary programs increased nearly continuously during the study period. We quantified how these reductions influenced atmospheric CH4 concentration and global temperature, finding a decrease in concentration of 28 ppb and an avoided temperature rise of 0.006 °C by 2013. Further, we monetized the climate and ozone-health impacts of the CH4 reductions, yielding an estimated benefit of $255 billion. These results indicate that EPA programs and policies have made a strong contribution to CH4 abatement, with climate and air quality benefits. PMID:27227378

  20. Analysing the emission gap between pledged emission reductions under the Cancun Agreements and the 2C climate target

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Roelfsema, M.; Hof, A.F. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boettcher, H. [Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria); Grassi, G. [Joint Research Centre JRC, European Commission, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-04-15

    In the Cancun Agreements, Annex I Parties (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I Parties (developing countries) made voluntary pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The Cancun Agreements also state a long-term target of limiting temperature increase to a maximum of 2C above pre-industrial levels. This report is an update of the PBL report 'Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord', which similar to earlier studies showed that there is a possible gap in emissions between the emission level resulting from the pledges and the level necessary to achieve the 2C target. The updates involve new information on many topics that have become available over the last two years, including updated national business-as-usual emission projections as provided by the countries themselves, and more information on uncertainties and on factors influencing the size of the emission gap. In this context, the main objective of this report can be formulated as follows: This report analyses the effect of the pledges put forward by the Parties in the Cancun Agreements on the emission gap, taking into account all the new information available. It pays specific attention to uncertainties and risks and describes in more detail the emission implications of the pledges and actions of the 12 largest emitting countries or regions.

  1. Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds, and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS) Field Campaign Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schmid, B. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Flynn, C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2016-03-01

    Studies of Emissions and Atmospheric Composition, Clouds and Climate Coupling by Regional Surveys (SEAC4RS), a National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) field campaign, was based out of Ellington Field in Houston, Texas, during August and September 2013. The study focused on pollution emissions and the evolution of gases and aerosols in deep convective outflow, and the influences and feedbacks of aerosol particles from anthropogenic pollution and biomass burning on meteorology, clouds, and climate. The project required three aircraft to accomplish these goals. The NASA DC-8 provided observations from near the surface to 12 km, while the NASA ER-2 provided high-altitude observations reaching into the lower stratosphere as well as important remote-sensing observations connecting satellites with observations from lower-flying aircraft and surface sites. The SPEC, Inc. Learjet obtained aerosol and cloud microphysical measurement in convective clouds and convective outflow.

  2. Climate Response Uncertainty and the Unexpected Benefits of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions

    OpenAIRE

    Adam Daigneault; Steve Newbold

    2009-01-01

    Some recent research suggests that uncertainty about the response of the climate system to atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations can have a disproportionately large influence on benefits estimates for climate change policies, potentially even dominating the effect of the discount rate. In this paper we conduct a series of numerical simulation experiments to investigate the quantitative significance of climate response uncertainty for economic assessments of climate change. First we ...

  3. Uncertainties in modelling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: the role of vegetation parameters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. van Huissteden

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 interstadials are marked by a sharp increase in the atmospheric methane (CH4 concentration, as recorded in ice cores. Wetlands are assumed to be the major source of this CH4, although several other hypotheses have been advanced. Modelling of CH4 emissions is crucial to quantify CH4 sources for past climates. Vegetation effects are generally highly generalized in modelling past and present-day CH4 fluxes, but should not be neglected. Plants strongly affect the soil-atmosphere exchange of CH4 and the net primary production of the vegetation supplies organic matter as substrate for methanogens. For modelling past CH4 fluxes from northern wetlands, assumptions on vegetation are highly relevant since paleobotanical data indicate large differences in Last Glacial (LG wetland vegetation composition as compared to modern wetland vegetation. Besides more cold-adapted vegetation, Sphagnum mosses appear to be much less dominant during large parts of the LG than at present, which particularly affects CH4 oxidation and transport. To evaluate the effect of vegetation parameters, we used the PEATLAND-VU wetland CO2/CH4 model to simulate emissions from wetlands in continental Europe during LG and modern climates. We tested the effect of parameters influencing oxidation during plant transport (fox, vegetation net primary production (NPP, parameter symbol Pmax, plant transport rate (Vtransp, maximum rooting depth (Zroot and root exudation rate (fex. Our model results show that modelled CH4 fluxes are sensitive to fox and Zroot in particular. The effects of Pmax, Vtransp and fex are of lesser relevance. Interactions with water table modelling are significant for Vtransp. We conducted experiments with different wetland vegetation types for Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS 3 stadial and interstadial climates and the present-day climate, by coupling PEATLAND-VU to high resolution climate model simulations for Europe. Experiments assuming

  4. Uncertainties in Isoprene Photochemistry and Emissions: Implications for the Oxidative Capacity of Past and Present Atmospheres and for Climate Forcing Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Achakulwisut, P.; Mickley, L. J.; Murray, Lee; Tai, A.P.K.; Kaplan, J.O.; Alexander, B.

    2015-01-01

    Current understanding of the factors controlling biogenic isoprene emissions and of the fate of isoprene oxidation products in the atmosphere has been evolving rapidly. We use a climate-biosphere-chemistry modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of estimates of the tropospheric oxidative capacity to uncertainties in isoprene emissions and photochemistry. Our work focuses on trends across two time horizons: from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years BP) to the preindustrial (1770s); and from the preindustrial to the present day (1990s). We find that different oxidants have different sensitivities to the uncertainties tested in this study, with OH being the most sensitive: changes in the global mean OH levels for the LGM-to-preindustrial transition range between -29 and +7, and those for the preindustrial-to-present day transition range between -8 and +17, across our simulations. Our results suggest that the observed glacial-interglacial variability in atmospheric methane concentrations is predominantly driven by changes in methane sources as opposed to changes in OH, the primary methane sink. However, the magnitudes of change are subject to uncertainties in the past isoprene global burdens, as are estimates of the change in the global burden of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) relative to the preindustrial. We show that the linear relationship between tropospheric mean OH and tropospheric mean ozone photolysis rates, water vapor, and total emissions of NOx and reactive carbon first reported in Murray et al. (2014) does not hold across all periods with the new isoprene photochemistry mechanism. Our results demonstrate that inadequacies in our understanding of present-day OH and its controlling factors must be addressed in order to improve model estimates of the oxidative capacity of past and present atmospheres.

  5. Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Prudhomme

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Potential evapotranspiration PET is the water that would be lost by plants through evaporation and transpiration if water was not limited in the soil, and it is commonly used in conceptual hydrological modelling in the calculation of runoff production and hence river discharge. Future changes of PET are likely to be as important as changes in precipitation patterns in determining changes in river flows. However PET is not calculated routinely by climate models so it must be derived independently when the impact of climate change on river flow is to be assessed. This paper compares PET estimates from twelve equations of different complexity, driven by the Hadley Centre's HadRM3-Q0 model outputs representative of 1961–1990, with MORECS PET, a product used as reference PET in Great Britain. The results show that the FAO56 version of the Penman-Monteith equations reproduce best the spatial and seasonal variability of MORECS PET across GB when driven by HadRM3-Q0 estimates of relative humidity, total cloud, wind speed and linearly bias-corrected mean surface temperature. This suggests that potential biases in HadRM3-Q0 climate do not result in significant biases when the physically-based FAO56 equations are used. Percentage changes in PET between the 1961–1990 and 2041–2070 time slices were also calculated for each of the twelve PET equations. Results show a large variation in the magnitude (and sometimes direction of changes estimated from different PET equations, with Turc, Jensen-Hense and calibrated Blaney-Criddle methods systematically projecting the largest increases across GB for all months and Priestley-Taylor, Makkink and Thornthwaite showing the smallest changes. We recommend the use of the FAO56 equation as when driven by HadRM3-Q0 climate data this best reproduces the reference MORECS PET across Great Britain for the reference period of 1961–1990. Further, the future changes of PET estimated by FAO56 are within the range of

  6. Derivation of RCM-driven potential evapotranspiration for hydrological climate change impact analysis in Great Britain: a comparison of methods and associated uncertainty in future projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Swe