WorldWideScience

Sample records for climatically driven emissions

  1. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission driven Global Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D.

    2012-09-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission driven rather than concentration driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a Global Climate Model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration driven simulations (with 10-90 percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario up to 3.9 K for the high end business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 degrees (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration driven experiments) on the timescale that different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration pathways used to drive GCM ensembles lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legecy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in concentration driven projections. Our ensemble of emission driven simulations span the global temperature response of other multi-model frameworks except at the low end, where combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to responses outside our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high end responses which lie above the CMIP5 carbon

  2. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. B. B. Booth

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM. These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10–90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario. A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5 and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6 temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs, the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high

  3. Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Booth, B. B. B.; Bernie, D.; McNeall, D.; Hawkins, E.; Caesar, J.; Boulton, C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Sexton, D. M. H.

    2013-04-01

    We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model (GCM). These new GCM simulations sample uncertainties in atmospheric feedbacks, land carbon cycle, ocean physics and aerosol sulphur cycle processes. We find broader ranges of projected temperature responses arising when considering emission rather than concentration-driven simulations (with 10-90th percentile ranges of 1.7 K for the aggressive mitigation scenario, up to 3.9 K for the high-end, business as usual scenario). A small minority of simulations resulting from combinations of strong atmospheric feedbacks and carbon cycle responses show temperature increases in excess of 9 K (RCP8.5) and even under aggressive mitigation (RCP2.6) temperatures in excess of 4 K. While the simulations point to much larger temperature ranges for emission-driven experiments, they do not change existing expectations (based on previous concentration-driven experiments) on the timescales over which different sources of uncertainty are important. The new simulations sample a range of future atmospheric concentrations for each emission scenario. Both in the case of SRES A1B and the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), the concentration scenarios used to drive GCM ensembles, lies towards the lower end of our simulated distribution. This design decision (a legacy of previous assessments) is likely to lead concentration-driven experiments to under-sample strong feedback responses in future projections. Our ensemble of emission-driven simulations span the global temperature response of the CMIP5 emission-driven simulations, except at the low end. Combinations of low climate sensitivity and low carbon cycle feedbacks lead to a number of CMIP5 responses to lie below our ensemble range. The ensemble simulates a number of high-end responses which lie

  4. Effect of climate-driven changes in species composition on regional emission capacities of biogenic compounds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schurgers, G.; Arneth, A.; Hickler, T.

    2011-11-01

    Regional or global modeling studies of dynamic vegetation often represent vegetation by large functional units (plant functional types (PFTs)). For simulation of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) in these models, emission capacities, which give the emission under standardized conditions, are provided as an average value for a PFT. These emission capacities thus hide the known heterogeneity in emission characteristics that are not straightforwardly related to functional characteristics of plants. Here we study the effects of the aggregation of species-level information on emission characteristics at PFT level. The roles of temporal and spatial variability are assessed for Europe by comparing simulations that represent vegetation by dominant tree species on the one hand and by plant functional types on the other. We compare a number of time slices between the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago) and the present day to quantify the effects of dynamically changing vegetation on BVOC emissions. Spatial heterogeneity of emission factors is studied with present-day simulations. We show that isoprene and monoterpene emissions are of similar magnitude in Europe when the simulation represents dominant European tree species, which indicates that simulations applying typical global-scale emission capacities for PFTs tend to overestimate isoprene and underestimate monoterpene emissions. Moreover, both spatial and temporal variability affect emission capacities considerably, and by aggregating these to PFT level averages, one loses the information on local heterogeneity. Given the reactive nature of these compounds, accounting for spatial and temporal heterogeneity can be important for studies of their fate in the atmosphere.

  5. Climate-driven polar motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Celaya, Michael A.; Wahr, John M.; Bryan, Frank O.

    1999-06-01

    The output of a coupled climate system model provides a synthetic climate record with temporal and spatial coverage not attainable with observational data, allowing evaluation of climatic excitation of polar motion on timescales of months to decades. Analysis of the geodetically inferred Chandler excitation power shows that it has fluctuated by up to 90% since 1900 and that it has characteristics representative of a stationary Gaussian process. Our model-predicted climate excitation of the Chandler wobble also exhibits variable power comparable to the observed. Ocean currents and bottom pressure shifts acting together can alone drive the 14-month wobble. The same is true of the excitation generated by the combined effects of barometric pressure and winds. The oceanic and atmospheric contributions are this large because of a relatively high degree of constructive interference between seafloor pressure and currents and between atmospheric pressure and winds. In contrast, excitation by the redistribution of water on land appears largely insignificant. Not surprisingly, the full climate effect is even more capable of driving the wobble than the effects of the oceans or atmosphere alone are. Our match to the observed annual excitation is also improved, by about 17%, over previous estimates made with historical climate data. Efforts to explain the 30-year Markowitz wobble meet with less success. Even so, at periods ranging from months to decades, excitation generated by a model of a coupled climate system makes a close approximation to the amplitude of what is geodetically observed.

  6. Climate Benefits of Potential Avoided Emissions from Forest Conversion Diminished by Albedo Warming: Comprehensive, Data-Driven Assessment for the US and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, C. A.; Gu, H.; Jiao, T.

    2017-12-01

    Avoided deforestation is a leading pathway for climate change mitigation, featuring prominently in many country's Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, but its climate benefits remain contested, in part because of reports of large offsetting effects in some regions of the world. It is well known that avoiding forest to non-forest conversion prevents forest carbon release, and sustains forest carbon uptake, but also increases albedo thus diminishing the potency of this mitigation strategy. While the mechanisms are known, their relative importance and the resulting climate benefit remain unclear. This is in part due to a lack of quantitative assessments documenting geographic variation in rates of forest conversion, associated carbon emissions, resulting radiative forcing, and the magnitude of simultaneous albedo offsets. This study (i) quantifies the current rate of forest conversion and carbon release in the United States with Landsat remote sensing and a carbon assessment framework, and (ii) compares this to quantitative estimates of the radiative forcing from the corresponding albedo change. Albedo radiative forcing is assessed with a recently-generated, global atlas of land-cover-specific albedos derived from a fusion of MODIS and Landsat reflectances, combined with snow cover and solar radiation datasets. We document the degree to which albedo warming offsets carbon cooling from contemporary forest conversions taking place in different regions of the United States and identify the underlying drivers of spatial variability. We then extend this to other regions of the world where forests are under threat and where avoided deforestation is viewed as a primary tool for climate mitigation. Results shed light on the, at times contentious, debate about the efficacy of forest protection as a mitigation mechanism.

  7. Climate-driven changes in water level

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Rikke Bjerring; Olsen, Jesper; Jeppesen, Erik

    2013-01-01

    level rose. Moreover, Nymphaeaceae trichosclereids were abundant during the period of algal enrichment. Cladoceran taxa associated with floating leaved plants or benthic habitats responded in a complex way to changes in water level, but the cladoceran assemblages generally reflected deep lake conditions...... hydrology driven by precipitation. The isotopic, sedimentary and plant macrofossil records suggested that the lake level started to decrease around 8400 cal. yr BP, the decrease accelerating during 8350-8260 before an abrupt increase during 8260-8210. This pattern shows that the climate anomaly started...... rates of cladoceran subfossils and algal pigments, possibly due to increased turbidity and reduced nutrient input during this drier period. Pigment analysis also showed added importance of diatoms and cryptophytes during this climate anomaly, while cyanobacteria became more important when the water...

  8. X-Ray-Driven Gamma Emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carroll, J. J.; Karamian, S. A.; Rivlin, L. A.; Zadernovsky, A. A.

    2001-01-01

    X-ray-driven gamma emission describes processes that may release nuclear energy in a 'clean' way, as bursts of incoherent or coherent gamma rays without the production of radioactive by-products. Over the past decade, studies in this area, as a part of the larger field of quantum nucleonics, have gained tremendous momentum. Since 1987 it has been established that photons could trigger gamma emission from a long-lived metastable nuclear excited state of one nuclide and it appears likely that triggering in other isotopes will be demonstrated conclusively in the near future. With these experimental results have come new proposals for the creation of collective and avalanche-like incoherent gamma-ray bursts and even for the ultimate light source, a gamma-ray laser. Obviously, many applications would benefit from controlled bursts of gamma radiation, whether coherent or not. This paper reviews the experimental results and concepts for the production of gamma rays, driven by externally produced X-rays

  9. Understanding Climate Change and Manifestation of its Driven ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This article examines the nature and manifestation of climate change driven impacts on the agrarian districts of Kongwa and Bahi in the semi arid areas of Dodoma region in Tanzania. A Survey of 398 households in the study area was undertaken to elicit information on the nature and manifestation of climate change driven ...

  10. Climate finance, climate investors and assets for low emission development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Collins C Ngwakwe

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This research examines the relationship between climate finance, growth in climate investors and growth in climate assets for low emission development. It also evaluates the effect of climate policy evolution on the growth of climate investors and climate assets. Adopting a positivist paradigm, the paper makes use of a quantitative research approach and applies the causal and correlational research design. The paper made use of secondary data from the World Bank Carbon Finance Unit and from the Carbon Disclosure Project (ADP. The major objective was to examine the combined effect of climate finance and climate policy on the growth of carbon investors and carbon assets for the companies in the Carbon Disclosure Project which includes the 100 JSE companies. Findings from the test reveal that the combined effect of growth in climate finance and climate policy evolution has a significant relationship with growth in climate investors and climate assets. Given this result the paper proceeded to examine if the growth in climate finance has any correlation with South Africa’s emission reduction trend. Results however indicate that South Africa’s GHG emission trend does not correlate with climate finance availability; GHG emissions in South Africa have continued to soar despite a seeming growth in climate finance. The paper reasoned that the global climate finance might not be effectively available to corporates in South Africa at the expected level of financing to initiate the expected level of climate investment to effect a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This confirms literature assertions that global climate finance might not easily be accessible, at least to entities in developing countries. In conclusion, the paper suggests the establishment of a Southern African Climate Finance pool where the public and private sector can contribute and that such pool should be made easily available to carbon investors at a cheap rate with

  11. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Emission factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shawn Urbanski

    2014-01-01

    While the vast majority of carbon emitted by wildland fires is released as CO2, CO, and CH4, wildland fire smoke is nonetheless a rich and complex mixture of gases and aerosols. Primary emissions include significant amounts of CH4 and aerosol (organic aerosol and black carbon), which are short-lived climate forcers. In addition to CO2 and short-lived climate forcers,...

  12. Emissions trading and the climate change levy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Connett, Richard

    2000-01-01

    This paper discusses the flexible mechanisms established in the Kyoto Protocol of the UN Framework on Climate Change focussing on the mechanism whereby countries achieving their target for reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases can trade their excess to countries having difficulty achieving their target. UK measures to meet their commitment, the UK government's proposed climate change levy on the use of energy, negotiated agreements, emissions trading, and the nature, supply and trading of permits are examined. Compatibility with international agreements and the Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control (IPPC) Directive, monitoring, and penalties are considered

  13. Climate/chemistry feedbacks and biogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pyle, John A; Warwick, Nicola; Yang, Xin; Young, Paul J; Zeng, Guang

    2007-07-15

    The oxidizing capacity of the atmosphere is affected by anthropogenic emissions and is projected to change in the future. Model calculations indicate that the change in surface ozone at some locations could be large and have significant implications for human health. The calculations depend on the precise scenarios used for the anthropogenic emissions and on the details of the feedback processes included in the model. One important factor is how natural biogenic emissions will change in the future. We carry out a sensitivity calculation to address the possible increase in isoprene emissions consequent on increased surface temperature in a future climate. The changes in ozone are significant but depend crucially on the background chemical regime. In these calculations, we find that increased isoprene will increase ozone in the Northern Hemisphere but decrease ozone in the tropics. We also consider the role of bromine compounds in tropospheric chemistry and consider cases where, in a future climate, the impact of bromine could change.

  14. Possible climate change over Eurasia under different emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, A. P.; Monier, E.; Gao, X.

    2012-12-01

    In an attempt to evaluate possible climate change over EURASIA, we analyze results of six AMIP type simulations with CAM version 3 (CAM3) at 2x2.5 degree resolution. CAM3 is driven by time series of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and sea ice obtained by running the MIT IGSM2.3, which consists of a 3D ocean GCM coupled to a zonally-averaged atmospheric climate-chemistry model. In addition to changes in SSTs, CAM3 is forced by changes in greenhouse gases and ozone concentrations, sulfate aerosol forcing and black carbon loading calculated by the IGSM2.3. An essential feature of the IGSM is the possibility to vary its climate sensitivity (using a cloud adjustment technique) and the strength of the aerosol forcing. For consistency, new modules were developed in CAM3 to modify its climate sensitivity and aerosol forcing to match those used in the simulations with the IGSM2.3. The simulations presented in this paper were carried out for two emission scenarios, a "Business as usual" scenario and a 660 ppm of CO2-EQ stabilization, which are similar to the RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, respectively. Values of climate sensitivity used in the simulations within the IGSM-CAM framework are median and the bounds of the 90% probability interval of the probability distribution obtained by comparing the 20th century climate simulated by different versions of the IGSM with observations. The associated strength of the aerosol forcing was chosen to ensure a good agreement with the observed climate change over the 20th century. Because the concentration of sulfate aerosol significantly decreases over the 21st century in both emissions scenarios, climate changes obtained in these simulations provide a good approximation for the median, and the 5th and 95th percentiles of the probability distribution of 21st century climate change.

  15. Climate, energy and emissions trading

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baron, R.; Philibert, C.

    2007-01-01

    The authors question the 4 main concerns that have arisen since the implementation of emission trade markets 3 years ago. First, the allowance policy was not accurate enough and has led to a surplus offer of CO 2 allowances. Secondly, the impact on electricity prices of carbon emission costs was all the higher as it happened at the moment of the deregulation of electricity markets. Thirdly, the CO 2 allowances whose price will near 14 euros a ton for the 2008-2012 period are accused of hindering the competitiveness of the European industrial sector. Fourth, the present allowance system that gives to new comers free CO 2 allowances is not very conducive to the adoption by these new comers of technologies that are less CO 2 emitting. Some ways of improvement are given. (A.C.)

  16. A dynamic, climate-driven model of Rift Valley fever

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Leedale

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF in eastern Africa have previously occurred following specific rainfall dynamics and flooding events that appear to support the emergence of large numbers of mosquito vectors. As such, transmission of the virus is considered to be sensitive to environmental conditions and therefore changes in climate can impact the spatiotemporal dynamics of epizootic vulnerability. Epidemiological information describing the methods and parameters of RVF transmission and its dependence on climatic factors are used to develop a new spatio-temporal mathematical model that simulates these dynamics and can predict the impact of changes in climate. The Liverpool RVF (LRVF model is a new dynamic, process-based model driven by climate data that provides a predictive output of geographical changes in RVF outbreak susceptibility as a result of the climate and local livestock immunity. This description of the multi-disciplinary process of model development is accessible to mathematicians, epidemiological modellers and climate scientists, uniting dynamic mathematical modelling, empirical parameterisation and state-of-the-art climate information.

  17. Atmospheric/climatic effects of aircraft emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pueschel, R.F.

    1996-01-01

    Exhaust emissions from aircraft include oxides of nitrogen (NO x ), water vapor (H 2 O), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), carbon monoxide (CO), hydrocarbons (HC) and particles (soot and sulfates). These emissions are small compared to industrial/urban surface emissions. However, because (1) atmospheric residence times of exhaust constituents are longer at altitude, particularly in the stratosphere, than they are in the boundary layer, (2) their background concentrations at altitude are lower than those near the surface, (3) the radiation balance is the more sensitive to atmospheric trace constituents the colder the temperature aloft and (4) inter-hemispheric mixing of aircraft effluents is inhibited, aircraft emissions near and above the tropopause and polewards of 40 degrees latitude can be environmentally critical. That's why atmospheric/climatic effects of aircraft emissions have again received scientific, economic and political scrutiny in the last few years, motivated by growth of subsonic traffic at about 5% per year over the past two decades and the advent of a technologically feasible operation of a supersonic high speed commercial transport (HSCT) fleet

  18. Emission Data For Climate-Chemistry Interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, S. J.

    2012-12-01

    Data on anthropogenic and natural emissions of reactive species are a critical input for studies of atmospheric chemistry and climate. The availability and characteristics of anthropogenic emissions data that can be used for such studies are reviewed and pathways for future work discuss Global and regional datasets for historical and future emissions are available, but their characteristics and applicability for specific studies differ. For the first time, a coordinated set of historical emissions (Lamarque et al 2010) and the future projections (van Vuurren et al. 2011) have been developed for use in the CMIP5 and ACCMIP long-term simulation comparison projects. These data have decadal resolution and were designed for long-term, global simulations. These data, however, lack finer-scale spatial and temporal detail that might be needed for some studies. Robust and timely updates of emissions data is generally lacking, although recent updates will be presented. While historical emission data is often treated as known, emissions are uncertain, even though this uncertainty is rarely quantified. Uncertainty varies by species and location. Inverse modeling is starting to indicate where emission data may be uncertain, which opens the way to improving these data overall. Further interaction between the chemistry modeling and inventory development communities are needed. Future projections are intrinsically uncertain, and while institutions and processes are in place to develop and review long-term century-scale scenarios, a need has remained for a wider range in shorter-term (e.g., several decade) projections. Emissions and scenario development communities have been working to fill this need. Communication across disciplines of the assumptions embedded in emissions projections remains a challenge. Atmospheric chemistry models are a central tool needed for studying chemistry-climate interactions. Simpler models, however, are also needed in order to examine interactions

  19. Equality and CO2 emissions distribution in climate change integrated assessment modelling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola; Padilla, Emilio

    2010-01-01

    The equity implications of alternative climate policy measures are an essential issue to be considered in the design of future international agreements to tackle global warming. This paper specifically analyses the future path of emissions and income distribution and its determinants in different scenarios. Whereas our analysis is driven by tools which are typically applied in the income distribution literature and which have recently been applied to the analysis of CO 2 emissions distribution, a new methodological approach is that our study is driven by simulations run with the popular regionalised optimal growth climate change model RICE99 over the 1995-2105 period. We find that the architecture of environmental policies, the implementation of flexible mechanisms and income concentration are key determinants of emissions distribution over time. In particular we find a robust positive relationship between measures of inequalities in the distribution of emissions and income and that their magnitude will essentially depend on technological change. (author)

  20. Emerging role of wetland methane emissions in driving 21st century climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhen; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Stenke, Andrea; Li, Xin; Hodson, Elke L; Zhu, Gaofeng; Huang, Chunlin; Poulter, Benjamin

    2017-09-05

    Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions are the largest natural source in the global CH 4 budget, contributing to roughly one third of total natural and anthropogenic emissions. As the second most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas in the atmosphere after CO 2 , CH 4 is strongly associated with climate feedbacks. However, due to the paucity of data, wetland CH 4 feedbacks were not fully assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. The degree to which future expansion of wetlands and CH 4 emissions will evolve and consequently drive climate feedbacks is thus a question of major concern. Here we present an ensemble estimate of wetland CH 4 emissions driven by 38 general circulation models for the 21st century. We find that climate change-induced increases in boreal wetland extent and temperature-driven increases in tropical CH 4 emissions will dominate anthropogenic CH 4 emissions by 38 to 56% toward the end of the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6). Depending on scenarios, wetland CH 4 feedbacks translate to an increase in additional global mean radiative forcing of 0.04 W·m -2 to 0.19 W·m -2 by the end of the 21st century. Under the "worst-case" RCP8.5 scenario, with no climate mitigation, boreal CH 4 emissions are enhanced by 18.05 Tg to 41.69 Tg, due to thawing of inundated areas during the cold season (December to May) and rising temperature, while tropical CH 4 emissions accelerate with a total increment of 48.36 Tg to 87.37 Tg by 2099. Our results suggest that climate mitigation policies must consider mitigation of wetland CH 4 feedbacks to maintain average global warming below 2 °C.

  1. A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. C. Wozniak

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available We develop a prognostic model called Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type, and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus, evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae, grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4, and ragweed (Ambrosia. This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in the Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4 over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model using (1 a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology, and emission potential, and (2 a plant functional type (PFT land cover, phenology, and emission potential. The simulated surface pollen concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model; however, we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions

  2. A Science-Driven Photojournalistic Documentation of Climate Change (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Braasch, G.; Rothlein, J. E.

    2013-12-01

    Office of the President; two original books (one for middle schools with a co-author); publication in hundreds of magazines, textbooks and public interest websites; use during university, government and civic seminars and scientific meetings; and distribution among and use by Congressional offices. Most recently the project inspired films about youth involvement in citizen science and climate change education; and co-developed Apps for the iPad and iPhone which graphically show climate-driven changes in repeat photographs and maps. Financial support for this work has come principally from publication fees and grants from small foundations and individuals (via Blue Earth Alliance of Seattle).

  3. AC-driven organic light emission devices with carbon nanotubes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeon, So-Yeon; Yu, SeGi

    2017-02-01

    We have investigated alternating current (AC)-driven organic light-emitting devices (OLEDs), with carbon nanotubes (CNTs) incorporated within the emission layer. With CNT incorporation, the brightness of the OLEDs was substantially improved, and the turn-on voltage was reduced by at least a factor of five. Furthermore, the current levels of the CNT-incorporated OLEDs were lower than that of the reference device. A roughly 70% decrease in the current level was obtained for a CNT concentration of 0.03 wt%. This was accomplished by keeping the concentration of CNTs low and the length of CNTs short, which helped to suppress the percolation networking of CNTs within the emitting layer. Strong local electric fields near the end-tips of CNTs and micro-capacitors formed by dispersed CNTs might have caused this high brightness and these low currents. CNT incorporation in the emitting layer can improve the characteristics of AC-driven OLEDs, which are considered to be one of the candidates for flat panel displays and lightning devices.

  4. AC-driven Organic Light Emission Devices with Carbon Nanotubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jeon, So-Yeon [Sungkyunkwan University, Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Yu, SeGi [Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-02-15

    We have investigated alternating current (AC)-driven organic light-emitting devices (OLEDs), with carbon nanotubes (CNTs) incorporated within the emission layer. With CNT incorporation, the brightness of the OLEDs was substantially improved, and the turn-on voltage was reduced by at least a factor of five. Furthermore, the current levels of the CNT-incorporated OLEDs were lower than that of the reference device. A roughly 70% decrease in the current level was obtained for a CNT concentration of 0.03 wt%. This was accomplished by keeping the concentration of CNTs low and the length of CNTs short, which helped to suppress the percolation networking of CNTs within the emitting layer. Strong local electric fields near the end-tips of CNTs and micro-capacitors formed by dispersed CNTs might have caused this high brightness and these low currents. CNT incorporation in the emitting layer can improve the characteristics of AC-driven OLEDs, which are considered to be one of the candidates for flat panel displays and lightning devices.

  5. Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McDowell, Nate G.; Michaletz, Sean T.; Bennett, Katrina E.; Solander, Kurt C.; Xu, Chonggang; Maxwell, Reed M.; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

  6. Emission of electromagnetic radiation from beam driven plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Newman, D.L.

    1985-01-01

    Two production mechanisms for electromagnetic radiation from a plasma containing electron-beam-driven weak Langmuir turbulence are studied: induced Compton conversion and two-Langmuir-wave coalescence. Induced Compton conversion in which a Langmuir wave scatters off a relativistic electron while converting into a transversely polarized electromagnetic wave is considered as a means for producing amplified electromagnetic radiation from a beam-plasma system at frequencies well above the electron plasma frequency. The induced emission growth rates of the radiation produced by a monoenergetic ultrarelativistic electron beam are determined as a function of the Langmuir turbulence spectrum in the background plasma and are numerically evaluated for a range of model Langmuir spectra. Induced Compton conversion can play a role in emission from astrophysical beam-plasma systems if the electron beam is highly relativistic and sufficiently narrow. However, it is found that the growth rates for this process are too small in all cases studied to account for the intense high-frequency radiation observed in laboratory experiments. Two-Langmuir-wave coalescence as a means of producing radiation at 2omega/sub p/ is investigated in the setting of the earth's foreshock

  7. How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacressonnière, G.; Peuch, V.-H.; Arteta, J.; Josse, B.; Joly, M.; Marécal, V.; Saint Martin, D.; Déqué, M.; Watson, L.

    2012-12-01

    Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors), and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense). Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.). Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O3, NOx, SO2 and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM10. We study how the simulations driven by climate

  8. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Wildfire–climate interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yongqiang Liu; Scott Goodrick; Warren Heilman

    2014-01-01

    Increasing wildfire activity in recent decades, partially related to extended droughts, along with concern over potential impacts of future climate change on fire activity has resulted in increased attention on fire–climate interactions. Findings from studies published in recent years have remarkably increased our understanding of fire–climate interactions and improved...

  9. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.; Willems, T.

    2015-01-01

    Climate skeptics typically argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous, implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing emissions until we know what drives warming. This paper however shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a

  10. Optimal learning on climate change: why climate skeptics should reduce emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Wijnbergen, S.; Willems, T.

    2012-01-01

    Climate skeptics argue that the possibility that global warming is exogenous implies that we should not take additional action towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions until we know more. However this paper shows that even climate skeptics have an incentive to reduce emissions: such a change of

  11. Reduction emissions from transport sector - EU action against climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-08-01

    This paper explores and discusses the initiation and development of the EU's policies and strategies against climate change and the share experiences in the EU transport sector to reduce CO2 emission.

  12. A forward looking, actor based, indicator for climate gas emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ericson, Torgeir; Randers, Joergen

    2011-04-15

    The most commonly used Norwegian indicator for climate change displays historical emissions and compare with Norway's Kyoto target. This indicator says little about future emissions, about the ongoing Norwegian effort to reduce climate gas emissions, or about its effect on sustainability. In this paper we propose an indicator that improves on these weaknesses. We present a forward looking climate indicator that in addition to historic data includes business as usual scenarios, different proposals for future domestic emissions, and national or international commitments and agreements. This indicator presents - in one graph - a broad diversity of views on how the climate challenge should be handled from now and into the future. This indicator-graph may contribute to a more transparent discussion of available policy options. (Author)

  13. Emissions trading for climate policy - US and European perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernd Hansjuergens (ed.) [Martin Luther-Universitaet Halle-Wittenburg (Germany)

    2005-07-01

    The 1997 Kyoto Conference introduced emissions trading as a new policy instrument for climate protection. Bringing together scholars in the fields of economics, political science and law, this book provides a description, analysis and evaluation of different aspects of emissions trading as an instrument to control greenhouse gases. The authors analyse theoretical aspects of regulatory instruments for climate policy, provide an overview of US experience with market-based instruments, draw lessons from existing trading schemes for the control of greenhouse gases, and discuss options for emissions trading in climate policy. They also highlight the background of climate policy and instrument choice in the US and Europe and of the emerging new systems in Europe, particularly the new EU's directive for a CO{sub 2} emissions trading system. 8 figs., 15 tabs.

  14. Beamed neutron emission driven by laser accelerated light ions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kar, S.; Green, A.; Ahmed, H.; Alejo, A.; Robinson, A. P. L.; Cerchez, M.; Clarke, R.; Doria, D.; Dorkings, S.; Fernandez, J.; Mirfayzi, S. R.; McKenna, P.; Naughton, K.; Neely, D.; Norreys, P.; Peth, C.; Powell, H.; Ruiz, J. A.; Swain, J.; Willi, O.; Borghesi, M.

    2016-05-01

    Highly anisotropic, beam-like neutron emission with peak flux of the order of 109 n/sr was obtained from light nuclei reactions in a pitcher-catcher scenario, by employing MeV ions driven by a sub-petawatt laser. The spatial profile of the neutron beam, fully captured for the first time by employing a CR39 nuclear track detector, shows a FWHM divergence angle of ˜ 70^\\circ , with a peak flux nearly an order of magnitude higher than the isotropic component elsewhere. The observed beamed flux of neutrons is highly favourable for a wide range of applications, and indeed for further transport and moderation to thermal energies. A systematic study employing various combinations of pitcher-catcher materials indicates the dominant reactions being d(p, n+p)1H and d(d,n)3He. Albeit insufficient cross-section data are available for modelling, the observed anisotropy in the neutrons’ spatial and spectral profiles is most likely related to the directionality and high energy of the projectile ions.

  15. Climate Impacts From a Removal of Anthropogenic Aerosol Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samset, B. H.; Sand, M.; Smith, C. J.; Bauer, S. E.; Forster, P. M.; Fuglestvedt, J. S.; Osprey, S.; Schleussner, C.-F.

    2018-01-01

    Limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2.0°C requires strong mitigation of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Concurrently, emissions of anthropogenic aerosols will decline, due to coemission with GHG, and measures to improve air quality. However, the combined climate effect of GHG and aerosol emissions over the industrial era is poorly constrained. Here we show the climate impacts from removing present-day anthropogenic aerosol emissions and compare them to the impacts from moderate GHG-dominated global warming. Removing aerosols induces a global mean surface heating of 0.5-1.1°C, and precipitation increase of 2.0-4.6%. Extreme weather indices also increase. We find a higher sensitivity of extreme events to aerosol reductions, per degree of surface warming, in particular over the major aerosol emission regions. Under near-term warming, we find that regional climate change will depend strongly on the balance between aerosol and GHG forcing.

  16. Comparing climate policies to reduce carbon emissions in China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li, Aijun; Lin, Boqiang

    2013-01-01

    Currently, China is the largest carbon emitter mainly due to growing consumption of fossil fuels. In 2009, the Chinese government committed itself to reducing domestic carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 40–45% by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. Therefore, it is a top priority for the Chinese government to adopt efficient policy instruments to reduce its carbon intensity. Against this background, this paper develops a general equilibrium model and seeks to provide empirical contributions by comparing the potential impacts of several different policy options to reduce China's carbon emissions. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, these climate policies would affect the structure of economy and contribute to carbon emissions reduction and carbon intensity reduction. Secondly, there would be significant differences in the economic and environmental effects among different climate policies and hence, the government would trade-off among different economic objectives to overcome any potential resistances. Thirdly, there would be considerable differences in the emissions effects of absolute and intensity-based carbon emissions controls, implying that the government might adopt different climate policies for absolute or intensity-based carbon emissions controls. Looking ahead, the government should trade-off among different objectives when designing climate reforms. - Highlights: • We develop a static general equilibrium model to simulate the impacts of climate policies. • We compare the potential impacts of various climate policies in China. • We discuss how to design these policies to make them more effective

  17. Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Yu

    2018-03-01

    Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth's hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid Earth 121(11):8352-8370, 2016) by combining the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) data with an ocean model output. In this study, we reconstructed the observed seasonal geocenter motion with geophysical model predictions of mass variations in the polar ice sheets, continental glaciers, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and atmosphere and dynamic ocean (AO). The reconstructed geocenter motion time series is shown to be in close agreement with the solution based on GRACE data supporting with an ocean bottom pressure model. Over 85% of the observed geocenter motion time series, variance can be explained by the reconstructed solution, which allows a further investigation of the driving mechanisms. We then demonstrated that AO component accounts for 54, 62, and 25% of the observed geocenter motion variances in the X, Y, and Z directions, respectively. The TWS component alone explains 42, 32, and 39% of the observed variances. The net mass changes over oceans together with self-attraction and loading effects also contribute significantly (about 30%) to the seasonal geocenter motion in the X and Z directions. Other contributing sources, on the other hand, have marginal (less than 10%) impact on the seasonal variations but introduce a linear trend in the time series.

  18. Integrated assessment of climate change with reductions of methane emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Amstel, van A.R.

    2005-01-01

    We have been living in the anthropocene era since about 1950, and evidence of human influence on the natural ecosystems and climate is mounting. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to reduce the effects of climate change in the future. In an integrated assessment with the IMAGE model

  19. Climate change and CO2 emission reductions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ha Duong, M.; Campos, A.S.

    2007-04-01

    This paper presents the results of an opinion poll performed on a representative sample of 1000 persons about their sensitivity to climate change and to environment protection, their knowledge about technologies which are useful for environment protection, their opinion about geological CO 2 sequestration, and technologies to be developed to struggle against climate warming

  20. Carbon Countdown. Emissions trading to combat climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2006-06-01

    The European Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is a crucial cornerstone of climate change policy in Europe and the first international trading system for carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the world. The ETS is a major part of the solution to one of the biggest challenges humanity is facing: global warming. A WWF review of Phase 1 of the European Emission Trading Scheme and recommendations to improve its environmental effectiveness and economic efficiency for Phase 2

  1. Impact of biogenic emissions on feedbacks in the climate system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krüger, Olaf

    2017-04-01

    Impact of biogenic emissions on feedbacks in the climate system Bio-geophysical feedback between marine or continental ecosystems and the atmosphere potentially can alter climate change. A prominent feedback loop which is under discussion since 1983 bases on the emission of biologically produced gases - molecular oxygen, sulphur containing compounds and possibly isoprene, supersaturated in oceanic waters - into the marine troposphere. These by-products of phytoplankton metabolism lead to aerosol production and procure sustained influence on climate via modulation of cloud optical properties. In this contribution some findings related to the above mentioned climate processes are presented with special emphasis on marine ecosystems. A comparison of marine and continental ecosystems is made and different processes with major impact on feedbacks in the climate system are discussed.

  2. urbanization and climate chang carbon dioxide emission

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    userpc

    t efficient public urban mass transit that involves low carbon emissi individual car usage should be discouraged. ent, automobile density, climate change, global warming, greenhou e change .... Lagos, Port Harcourt, Abuja and Kano (Federal.

  3. Act locally, trade globally. Emissions trading for climate policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    none

    2005-07-01

    Climate policy raises a number of challenges for the energy sector, the most significant being the transition from a high to a low-CO2 energy path in a few decades. Emissions trading has become the instrument of choice to help manage the cost of this transition, whether used at international or at domestic level. Act Locally, Trade Globally, offers an overview of existing trading systems, their mechanisms, and looks into the future of the instrument for limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Are current markets likely to be as efficient as the theory predicts? What is, if any, the role of governments in these markets? Can domestic emissions trading systems be broadened to activities other than large stationary energy uses? Can international emissions trading accommodate potentially diverse types of emissions targets and widely different energy realities across countries? Are there hurdles to linking emissions trading systems based on various design features? Can emissions trading carry the entire burden of climate policy, or will other policy instruments remain necessary? In answering these questions, Act Locally, Trade Globally seeks to provide a complete picture of the future role of emissions trading in climate policy and the energy sector.

  4. Does climate policy lead to relocation with adverse effects for GHG emissions or not? A first assessment of the spillovers of climate policy for energy intensive industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oikonomou, V.; Patel, M.; Worrell, E.

    2004-12-01

    Energy-intensive industries play a special role in climate policy. World-wide, industry is responsible for about 50% of greenhouse gas emissions. The emission intensity makes these industries an important target for climate policy. At the same time these industries are particularly vulnerable if climate policy would lead to higher energy costs, and if they would be unable to offset these increased costs. The side effects of climate policy on GHG emissions in foreign countries are typically referred to as 'spillovers'. Negative spillovers reduce the effectiveness of a climate policy, while positive spillovers increase its effectiveness. This paper provides a review of the literature on the spillover effects of climate policy for carbon intensive industries. Reviews of past trends in production location of energy-intensive industries show an increased share of non-Annex 1 countries. However, this trend is primarily driven by demand growth, and there is no empirical evidence for a role of environmental policy in these development patterns. In contrast, climate models do show a strong carbon leakage of emissions from these industries. Even though that climate policy may have a more profound impact than previous environmental policies, the results of the modelling are ambiguous. The energy and carbon intensity of energy-intensive industries is rapidly declining in most developing countries, and reducing the 'gap' between industrialized and developing countries. Still, considerable potential for emission reduction exists, both in developing and industrialized countries. Technology development is likely to deliver further reductions in energy use and CO2 emissions. Despite the potential for positive spillovers in the energy-intensive industries, none of the models used in the analysis of spillovers of climate policies has an endogenous representation of technological change for the energy-intensive industries. This underlines the need for a better understanding of

  5. Emissions pathways, climate change, and impacts on California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hayhoe, Katharine; Cayan, Daniel; Field, Christopher B.; Frumhoff, Peter C.; Maurer, Edwin P.; Miller, Norman L.; Moser, Susanne C.; Schneider, Stephen H.; Cahill, Kimberly Nicholas; Cleland, Elsa E.; Dale, Larry; Drapek, Ray; Hanemann, R. Michael; Kalkstein, Laurence S.; Lenihan, James; Lunch, Claire K.; Neilson, Ronald P.; Sheridan, Scott C.; Verville, Julia H.

    2004-01-01

    The magnitude of future climate change depends substantially on the greenhouse gas emission pathways we choose. Here we explore the implications of the highest and lowest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions pathways for climate change and associated impacts in California. Based on climate projections from two state-of-the-art climate models with low and medium sensitivity (Parallel Climate Model and Hadley Centre Climate Model, version 3, respectively), we find that annual temperature increases nearly double from the lower B1 to the higher A1fi emissions scenario before 2100. Three of four simulations also show greater increases in summer temperatures as compared with winter. Extreme heat and the associated impacts on a range of temperature-sensitive sectors are substantially greater under the higher emissions scenario, with some interscenario differences apparent before midcentury. By the end of the century under the B1 scenario, heatwaves and extreme heat in Los Angeles quadruple in frequency while heat-related mortality increases two to three times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 50–75%; and Sierra snowpack is reduced 30–70%. Under A1fi, heatwaves in Los Angeles are six to eight times more frequent, with heat-related excess mortality increasing five to seven times; alpine/subalpine forests are reduced by 75–90%; and snowpack declines 73–90%, with cascading impacts on runoff and streamflow that, combined with projected modest declines in winter precipitation, could fundamentally disrupt California's water rights system. Although interscenario differences in climate impacts and costs of adaptation emerge mainly in the second half of the century, they are strongly dependent on emissions from preceding decades. PMID:15314227

  6. Greenhouse gas emissions considered responsible for climate change: Environmental indicators

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vialetto, G.; Venanzi, M.; Gaudioso, D.

    1993-09-01

    This paper concerns the more significant environmental indicators related to the emissions of radiatively and chemically/photochemically active trace gases. Reference is made to the preliminary work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and to the proposals made in the framework of the international negotiation on climate change. Aiming to contribute to the definition of a national strategy for the reduction of greenhouse gases emissions, this paper proposes a possible application of the indicators. The calculation of the indicators is based on the emission estimate performed by ENEA (Italian National Agency for Energy, New Technologies and the Environment) for the Report on the State of the Environment edited by the Italian Ministry of the Environment. Finally, the paper suggests an application of such indicators for the international negotiation, in the framework of the Italian proposal for the Convention on climate change

  7. Evaluation of emission characteristics and compliance of emission standards for in-use petrol driven vehicles in Delhi.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarin, S M; Singh, A; Sharma, N; Sharma, K; Shanmugum, P

    2001-01-01

    The tail pipe CO (carbon monoxide) and HC (hydrocarbon) emission characteristics of in-use petrol driven vehicles were evaluated between November 1996 through September 1997 in Delhi. A total of 4300 vehicles were checked at CRRI Pollution Checking Centre. Approximately 90% of the total vehicles meet the prescribed CO emission standards even without following routine I/M practices. The age of the vehicles appeared to have influence on the emission characteristics. The non-compliance level was found to be higher for older vehicles. Insignificant correlation was observed between CO and HC emissions for all categories of in-use petrol driven vehicles. The emission reduction (gain) in CO and HC emissions was observed for two wheelers equipped with four-stroke engines and four wheelers fitted with catalytic converters over their respective conventional vehicles. The observed high compliance levels indicate that existing tail pipe emission standards are lenient and need to be reviewed. The emission standards are proposed for different categories of in-use petrol driven vehicles.

  8. Reducing Methane Emissions: The Other Climate Change Challenge

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dessus, Benjamin; Laponche, Bernard

    2008-08-01

    Climate change studies show that it is vital to massively reduce atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases in the coming decades in order to limit the global average temperature rise ultimately to 2 or 3 deg. C and to prevent the occurrence of irreversible phenomena such as the melting of permafrost. To achieve these targets, climate experts construct scenarios estimating the changes in atmospheric concentrations of the different greenhouse gases, and determine the maximum levels that these concentrations should reach. Climate change policy targets are then set in terms of greenhouse gas emission reductions. In order to simplify the global assessment of the impact of emissions of these different greenhouse gases on global warming, the international community has adopted rules of equivalence to make it possible to take into account the emissions of non-CO_2 greenhouse gases within one single unit: the ton of CO_2 equivalent (t CO_2 eq). This is achieved by using the 'Global Warming Potential' (GWP) indicator which indicates the ratio of the respective climate impacts of a pulse emission of the greenhouse gas considered over a given period of time to a pulse emission of CO_2 of the same volume in the same year. A reference period of 100 years was defined and this means therefore that in terms of climate impacts, the emission of 1 ton of CH_4 is 'worth' the emission of 21 tons of CO_2. The study presented in this document shows that the widespread use of this equivalence to calculate not only past emissions, but also future emissions anticipated or emissions avoided over a period in the past or in the future, has led to the climate impact of CH_4 emissions being underestimated. This is because the GWP of CH_4 varies considerably depending on the period under consideration. This underestimation is accentuated even more if the respective impacts of avoided emissions of CO_2 and CH_4 are compared, either on a permanent basis or over a limited period of time. Thus

  9. Climate change and WTO : boundary mediation on certified emission reductions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Ho Cheol

    2011-07-01

    This book mentions climate change and WTO with is climate change true? International effort for reduce of greenhouse gas with UNFCCC, Kyoto protocol, Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreement, WTO norm, discussion on introduction of boundary mediation on certified emission reductions, analysis on regulation related WTO norm, violation of regulation on border measure of prohibition, violation of principle on GATT, justification, except through Article 20 of GATT, assessment of policy and supplementation on the law.

  10. The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. A. Skjøth

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions in regional-scale chemistry transport models (CTMs and chemistry climate models (CCMs. The method is based on the meteorology in the models and gridded inventories. We use the dynamical method to investigate the spatiotemporal variability of ammonia emissions across part of Europe and study how these emissions are related to geographical and year-to-year variations in atmospheric temperature alone. For simplicity we focus on the emission from a storage facility related to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections from an ensemble of climate models. The results point towards four overall issues. (1 Emissions can easily vary by 20% for different geographical locations within a country due to overall variations in climate. The largest uncertainties are seen for large countries such as the UK, Germany and France. (2 Annual variations in overall climate can at specific locations cause uncertainties in the range of 20%. (3 Climate change may increase emissions by 0–40% in central to northern Europe. (4 Gradients in existing emission inventories that are seen between neighbour countries (e.g. between the UK and France can be reduced by using a dynamical methodology for calculating emissions. Acting together these four factors can cause substantial uncertainties in emission. Emissions are generally considered among the largest uncertainties in the model calculations made with CTM and CCM models. Efforts to reduce uncertainties are therefore highly relevant. It is therefore recommended that both CCMs and CTMs implement a dynamical methodology for simulating ammonia emissions in a

  11. Distributional aspects of emissions in climate change integrated assessment models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cantore, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    The recent failure of Copenhagen negotiations shows that concrete actions are needed to create the conditions for a consensus over global emission reduction policies. A wide coalition of countries in international climate change agreements could be facilitated by the perceived fairness of rich and poor countries of the abatement sharing at international level. In this paper I use two popular climate change integrated assessment models to investigate the path and decompose components and sources of future inequality in the emissions distribution. Results prove to be consistent with previous empirical studies and robust to model comparison and show that gaps in GDP across world regions will still play a crucial role in explaining different countries contributions to global warming. - Research highlights: → I implement a scenario analysis with two global climate change models. → I analyse inequality in the distribution of emissions. → I decompose emissions inequality components. → I find that GDP per capita is the main Kaya identity source of emissions inequality. → Current rich countries will mostly remain responsible for emissions inequality.

  12. Fordism, Finance-driven Capitalism, and Climate Change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buch-Hansen, Hubert

    2014-01-01

    Review of Capitalism and Climate Change: Theoretical Discussion, Historical Development and Policy Responses by Max Koch. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012, pp. 240, ISBN: 9780230272514, £55 (hbk.)......Review of Capitalism and Climate Change: Theoretical Discussion, Historical Development and Policy Responses by Max Koch. New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2012, pp. 240, ISBN: 9780230272514, £55 (hbk.)...

  13. The relative importance of impacts from climate change vs. emissions change on air pollution levels in the 21st century

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. B. Hedegaard

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available So far several studies have analysed the impacts of climate change on future air pollution levels. Significant changes due to impacts of climate change have been made clear. Nevertheless, these changes are not yet included in national, regional or global air pollution reduction strategies. The changes in future air pollution levels are caused by both impacts from climate change and anthropogenic emission changes, the importance of which needs to be quantified and compared. In this study we use the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM driven by meteorological input data from the coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM and forced with the newly developed RCP4.5 emissions. The relative importance of the climate signal and the signal from changes in anthropogenic emissions on the future ozone, black carbon (BC, total particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 including BC, primary organic carbon (OC, mineral dust and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIA and total nitrogen (including NHx + NOy has been determined. For ozone, the impacts of anthropogenic emissions dominate, though a climate penalty is found in the Arctic region and northwestern Europe, where the signal from climate change dampens the effect from the projected emission reductions of anthropogenic ozone precursors. The investigated particles are even more dominated by the impacts from emission changes. For black carbon the emission signal dominates slightly at high latitudes, with an increase up to an order of magnitude larger, close to the emission sources in temperate and subtropical areas. Including all particulate matter with a diameter below 2.5 μm (total PM2.5 enhances the dominance from emissions change. In contrast, total nitrogen (NHx + NOy in parts of the Arctic and at low latitudes is dominated by impacts of climate change.

  14. The effect of climate and climate change on ammonia emissions in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. We present here a dynamical method for modelling temporal and geographical variations in ammonia emissions in regional-scale chemistry transport models (CTMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs). The method is based on the meteorology in the models and gridded inventories. We use...... to a standard Danish pig stable with 1000 animals and display how emissions from this source would vary geographically throughout central and northern Europe and from year to year. In view of future climate changes, we also evaluate the potential future changes in emission by including temperature projections....... Finally, the climate penalty on ammonia emissions should be taken into account at the policy level such as the NEC and IPPC directives....

  15. Seasonal climate change patterns due to cumulative CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Leduc, Martin; Damon Matthews, H.

    2017-07-01

    Cumulative CO2 emissions are near linearly related to both global and regional changes in annual-mean surface temperature. These relationships are known as the transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) and the regional TCRE (RTCRE), and have been shown to remain approximately constant over a wide range of cumulative emissions. Here, we assessed how well this relationship holds for seasonal patterns of temperature change, as well as for annual-mean and seasonal precipitation patterns. We analyzed an idealized scenario with CO2 concentration growing at an annual rate of 1% using data from 12 Earth system models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Seasonal RTCRE values for temperature varied considerably, with the highest seasonal variation evident in the Arctic, where RTCRE was about 5.5 °C per Tt C for boreal winter and about 2.0 °C per Tt C for boreal summer. Also the precipitation response in the Arctic during boreal winter was stronger than during other seasons. We found that emission-normalized seasonal patterns of temperature change were relatively robust with respect to time, though they were sub-linear with respect to emissions particularly near the Arctic. Moreover, RTCRE patterns for precipitation could not be quantified robustly due to the large internal variability of precipitation. Our results suggest that cumulative CO2 emissions are a useful metric to predict regional and seasonal changes in precipitation and temperature. This extension of the TCRE framework to seasonal and regional climate change is helpful for communicating the link between emissions and climate change to policy-makers and the general public, and is well-suited for impact studies that could make use of estimated regional-scale climate changes that are consistent with the carbon budgets associated with global temperature targets.

  16. Aligning corporate greenhouse-gas emissions targets with climate goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krabbe, Oskar; Linthorst, Giel; Blok, Kornelis; Crijns-Graus, Wina; Vuuren, Van Detlef P.; Höhne, Niklas; Faria, Pedro; Aden, Nate; Pineda, Alberto Carrillo

    2015-01-01

    Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of

  17. Aligning corporate greenhouse-gas emissions targets with climate goals

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krabbe, Oskar; Linthorst, Giel; Blok, Kornelis|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/07170275X; Crijns-Graus, Wina|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/308005015; Van Vuuren, Detlef P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Höhne, Niklas; Faria, Pedro; Aden, Nate; Pineda, Alberto Carrillo

    2015-01-01

    Corporate climate action is increasingly considered important in driving the transition towards a low-carbon economy. For this, it is critical to ensure translation of global goals to greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets at company level. At the moment, however, there is a lack of clear

  18. Climate change driven plant-metal-microbe interactions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, Mani; Prasad, Majeti Narasimha Vara; Swaminathan, Sandhya; Freitas, Helena

    2013-03-01

    Various biotic and abiotic stress factors affect the growth and productivity of crop plants. Particularly, the climatic and/or heavy metal stress influence various processes including growth, physiology, biochemistry, and yield of crops. Climatic changes particularly the elevated atmospheric CO₂ enhance the biomass production and metal accumulation in plants and help plants to support greater microbial populations and/or protect the microorganisms against the impacts of heavy metals. Besides, the indirect effects of climatic change (e.g., changes in the function and structure of plant roots and diversity and activity of rhizosphere microbes) would lead to altered metal bioavailability in soils and concomitantly affect plant growth. However, the effects of warming, drought or combined climatic stress on plant growth and metal accumulation vary substantially across physico-chemico-biological properties of the environment (e.g., soil pH, heavy metal type and its bio-available concentrations, microbial diversity, and interactive effects of climatic factors) and plant used. Overall, direct and/or indirect effects of climate change on heavy metal mobility in soils may further hinder the ability of plants to adapt and make them more susceptible to stress. Here, we review and discuss how the climatic parameters including atmospheric CO₂, temperature and drought influence the plant-metal interaction in polluted soils. Other aspects including the effects of climate change and heavy metals on plant-microbe interaction, heavy metal phytoremediation and safety of food and feed are also discussed. This review shows that predicting how plant-metal interaction responds to altering climatic change is critical to select suitable crop plants that would be able to produce more yields and tolerate multi-stress conditions without accumulating toxic heavy metals for future food security. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Greenhouse gas and livestock emissions and climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Caro, Dario

    2018-01-01

    The paper summarizes the current knowledge about the impact of livestock sector on climate change. The main sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from livestock are described and the contribution of livestock sector to the global GHG emissions is presented on the basis of the latest results...... obtained from the scientific research. The most recent mitigation strategies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from livestock sector are also discussed. The paper aims to provide a general overview of an emergent environmental issue such as the impact of livestock sector on climate change. While...... the paper is easy to understand for non-expert readers, it may also be a relevant reference point for academic researchers and for policy makers aimed at achieving the sustainability of livestock/food sector....

  20. From climate change to emissions trading : a briefing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcu, A.

    2002-01-01

    Global warming is caused by the presence of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the earth's atmosphere. These gases include, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxides, sulphur dioxide and methane. GHGs trap heat between the earth's atmosphere and the earth's surface to cause an overall warming trend of the Earth. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change was established to address the issue of climate change and to determine the anthropogenic impact on climate change. Evidence from ice cores suggest that global warming has occurred in the past. The current state of global warming was examined by comparing the climate of today with that of the past. It was determined that the current global warming trend surpasses that of any ever observed in the past. The Kyoto Protocol was adopted in 1997 as a policy set to address the need for the world to reduce GHG emissions into the atmosphere. The Kyoto Protocol puts forth 3 sets of mechanisms to help businesses reduce GHG emissions. Emissions trading is one of them: it is a financial flexibility mechanism that allows businesses that have emitted more than their allowed share of GHGs to buy allowances from business that have emitted fewer GHGs than they were allowed. Emissions trading does not create reductions, however, it identifies the most economical solution to reduce GHGs. TransAlta, Ontario Power Generation and Suncor have conducted a few transactions to see how the market will work. There will be a global register to keep track of all assigned allowances. The paper described government action in addressing the climate change issue with reference to actions in the United Kingdom, Netherlands, Denmark and Switzerland. Canada has initiated the Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Trading Pilot (GERT) to test the effectiveness of emission reduction trading for GHGs in the Canadian context. GERT is a partnership between the federal government, some provinces, industry, labour and environmental groups. Ontario has established a

  1. Fundamental properties of field emission-driven direct current microdischarges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rumbach, Paul; Go, David B.

    2012-01-01

    For half a century, it has been known that the onset of field emission in direct current microdischarges with gap sizes less than 10 μm can lead to breakdown at applied voltages far less than predicted by Paschen's law. It is still unclear how field emission affects other fundamental plasma properties at this scale. In this work, a one-dimensional fluid model is used to predict basic scaling laws for fundamental properties including ion density, electric field due to space charge, and current-voltage relations in the pre-breakdown regime. Computational results are compared with approximate analytic solutions. It is shown that field emission provides an abundance of cathode electrons, which in turn create large ion concentrations through ionizing collisions well before Paschen's criterion for breakdown is met. Breakdown due to ion-enhanced field emission occurs when the electric field due to space charge becomes comparable to the applied electric field. Simple scaling analysis of the 1D Poisson equation demonstrates that an ion density of n + ≈ 0.1V A ε 0 /qd 2 is necessary to significantly distort the electric field. Defining breakdown in terms of this critical ion density leads analytically to a simple, effective secondary emission coefficient γ ′ of the same mathematical form initially suggested by Boyle and Kisliuk [Phys. Rev. 97, 255 (1955)].

  2. Agriculture-driven deforestation in the tropics from 1990-2015: emissions, trends and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, Sarah; Herold, Martin; Avitabile, Valerio; de Bruin, Sytze; De Sy, Veronique; Kooistra, Lammert; Rufino, Mariana C.

    2018-01-01

    Limited data exists on emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation, and available data are typically uncertain. In this paper, we provide comparable estimates of emissions from both all deforestation and agriculture-driven deforestation, with uncertainties for 91 countries across the tropics between 1990 and 2015. Uncertainties associated with input datasets (activity data and emissions factors) were used to combine the datasets, where most certain datasets contribute the most. This method utilizes all the input data, while minimizing the uncertainty of the emissions estimate. The uncertainty of input datasets was influenced by the quality of the data, the sample size (for sample-based datasets), and the extent to which the timeframe of the data matches the period of interest. Area of deforestation, and the agriculture-driver factor (extent to which agriculture drives deforestation), were the most uncertain components of the emissions estimates, thus improvement in the uncertainties related to these estimates will provide the greatest reductions in uncertainties of emissions estimates. Over the period of the study, Latin America had the highest proportion of deforestation driven by agriculture (78%), and Africa had the lowest (62%). Latin America had the highest emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation, and these peaked at 974 ± 148 Mt CO2 yr-1 in 2000-2005. Africa saw a continuous increase in emissions between 1990 and 2015 (from 154 ± 21-412 ± 75 Mt CO2 yr-1), so mitigation initiatives could be prioritized there. Uncertainties for emissions from agriculture-driven deforestation are ± 62.4% (average over 1990-2015), and uncertainties were highest in Asia and lowest in Latin America. Uncertainty information is crucial for transparency when reporting, and gives credibility to related mitigation initiatives. We demonstrate that uncertainty data can also be useful when combining multiple open datasets, so we recommend new data

  3. Electrically driven light emission from an array of Si nanoclusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mazzitello, K I; Martin, H O; Aldao, C M; Roman, H E

    2004-01-01

    Charge transport and light emission properties of an array of silicon nanoclusters (NCs), sandwiched between a p-type and an n-type doped silicon crystal, are studied theoretically by assuming that electrons and holes enter from the opposite sides of the array in response to an applied electric field. The size of the NCs considered ranges from 16 nm down to 3.6 nm and their spatial distribution is optimized so that light emission, resulting from radiative recombinations, is peaked in the visible red around 1.8 eV. The light emission efficiency is limited by the carrier hopping times and is found to be in the range 2-0.5%, for fields ranging from 100 kV cm -1 to 500 kV cm -1 , respectively

  4. Climate-driven seasonal geocenter motion during the GRACE period

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Hongyue; Sun, Y.

    2018-01-01

    Annual cycles in the geocenter motion time series are primarily driven by mass changes in the Earth’s hydrologic system, which includes land hydrology, atmosphere, and oceans. Seasonal variations of the geocenter motion have been reliably determined according to Sun et al. (J Geophys Res Solid

  5. Measuring a fair and ambitious climate agreement using cumulative emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peters, Glen P; Andrew, Robbie M; Solomon, Susan; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2015-01-01

    Policy makers have called for a ‘fair and ambitious’ global climate agreement. Scientific constraints, such as the allowable carbon emissions to avoid exceeding a 2 °C global warming limit with 66% probability, can help define ambitious approaches to climate targets. However, fairly sharing the mitigation challenge to meet a global target involves human values rather than just scientific facts. We develop a framework based on cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide to compare the consistency of countries’ current emission pledges to the ambition of keeping global temperatures below 2 °C, and, further, compare two alternative methods of sharing the remaining emission allowance. We focus on the recent pledges and other official statements of the EU, USA, and China. The EU and US pledges are close to a 2 °C level of ambition only if the remaining emission allowance is distributed based on current emission shares, which is unlikely to be viewed as ‘fair and ambitious’ by others who presently emit less. China’s stated emissions target also differs from measures of global fairness, owing to emissions that continue to grow into the 2020s. We find that, combined, the EU, US, and Chinese pledges leave little room for other countries to emit CO 2 if a 2 °C limit is the objective, essentially requiring all other countries to move towards per capita emissions 7 to 14 times lower than the EU, USA, or China by 2030. We argue that a fair and ambitious agreement for a 2 °C limit that would be globally inclusive and effective in the long term will require stronger mitigation than the goals currently proposed. Given such necessary and unprecedented mitigation and the current lack of availability of some key technologies, we suggest a new diplomatic effort directed at ensuring that the necessary technologies become available in the near future. (letter)

  6. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  7. Climate, energy and emissions trading in the EU and DK

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyck-Madsen, S.

    2004-04-01

    European Union member states are facing two serious challenges: human-induced climatic changes and oil shortage. Evidence that human-induced global heating is threatening the climatic balance is piling up and the conflicts over the last oil resources are becoming critical. The European Union has neither large oil resources nor foreign-political or military power to conquer additional oil resources. The EU Commission's awareness of these facts is influencing the EU energy and climate policy. Recently EU launched the directive on carbon dioxide emissions trading within certain energy-heavy sectors. The greenhouse gas emission allowance trading directive requires a national ceiling on the allocation of CO 2 quotas for the heavy industry and energy sectors, thus adapting the quantity of quotas to the Kyoto requirements. This requirement can be quite extensive for the sectors affected by the greenhouse gas emission allowance trading directive, if national governments choose to abstain from political intervention in order to reduce release of greenhouse gases in sectors outside the emissions trading, e.g. agriculture, transportation, households, and smaller industry and service. Lack of action in these sectors will require the governments to impose either large burdens or use of national Joint Implementation and Clean Development agreements on the heavy industry and energy sectors outside national borders, thus conflicting with the Kyoto Protocol. (BA)

  8. Avoided emissions. Enterprises assess their solutions for the climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colas, Julien

    2017-09-01

    In its first part, this publication gives an overview of the issues of avoided emissions: reasons for their calculation, risks to be understood and anticipated, relationships between avoided emissions and enterprises, avoided emissions in the enterprise climate strategy, and available calculation methods. The second part describes the methodology and process of calculation of avoided emissions: project initiation, method selection, reference solution selection, scenario elaboration, definition of the scope of calculation, taking the whole value chain into account, result consolidation, communication. A synthesis of recommendations is provided. Within the text, this publication proposes presentations of actions undertaken by several French companies or French subsidiaries like Air France, BASF, EDF, Michelin, Paprec, RTE, Saint-Gobain, SNCF, Suez, Total, Veolia, and others

  9. Estimates of future climate based on SRES emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Sygna, Linda; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Berntsen, Terje

    2000-02-14

    The preliminary emission scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenario (SRES) developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), will eventually replace the old IS92 scenarios. By running these scenarios in a simple climate model (SCM) we estimate future temperature increase between 1.7 {sup o}C and 2.8 {sup o}C from 1990 to to 2100. The global sea level rise over the same period is between 0.33 m and 0.45 m. Compared to the previous IPCC scenarios (IS92) the SRES scenarios generally results in changes in both development over time and level of emissions, concentrations, radiative forcing, and finally temperature change and sea level rise. The most striking difference between the IS92 scenarios and the SRES scenarios is the lower level of SO{sub 2} emissions. The range in CO{sub 2} emissions is also expected to be narrower in the new scenarios. The SRES scenarios result in a narrower range both for temperature change and sea level rise from 1990 to 2100 compared to the range estimated for the IS92 scenarios. (author)

  10. Impacts of Residential Biofuel Emissions on Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Y.; Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Storelvmo, T.

    2016-12-01

    The residential biofuel sector is defined as fuelwood, agricultural residues and dung used for household cooking and heating. Aerosol emissions from this human activity play an important role affecting local, regional and global air quality, climate and public health. However, there are only few studies available that evaluate the net impacts and large uncertainties persist. Here we use the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM v5.3) within the Community Earth System Model version 1.2.2, to quantify the impacts of cook-stove biofuel emissions on air quality and climate. The model incorporates a novel advanced treatment of black carbon (BC) effects on mixed-phase/ice clouds. We update the global anthropogenic emission inventory in CAM v5.3 to a state-of-the-art emission inventory from the Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies integrated assessment model. Global in-situ and aircraft campaign observations for BC and organic carbon are used to evaluate and validate the model performance. Sensitivity simulations are employed to assess the impacts of residential biofuel emissions on regional and global direct and indirect radiative forcings in the contemporary world. We focus the analyses on several key regions including India, China and Sub-Saharan Africa.

  11. A decade of sea level rise slowed by climate-driven hydrology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reager, J T; Gardner, A S; Famiglietti, J S; Wiese, D N; Eicker, A; Lo, M-H

    2016-02-12

    Climate-driven changes in land water storage and their contributions to sea level rise have been absent from Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level budgets owing to observational challenges. Recent advances in satellite measurement of time-variable gravity combined with reconciled global glacier loss estimates enable a disaggregation of continental land mass changes and a quantification of this term. We found that between 2002 and 2014, climate variability resulted in an additional 3200 ± 900 gigatons of water being stored on land. This gain partially offset water losses from ice sheets, glaciers, and groundwater pumping, slowing the rate of sea level rise by 0.71 ± 0.20 millimeters per year. These findings highlight the importance of climate-driven changes in hydrology when assigning attribution to decadal changes in sea level. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

  12. Climate-driven flushing of pore water in peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siegel, D. I.; Reeve, A. S.; Glaser, P. H.; Romanowicz, E. A.

    1995-04-01

    NORTHERN peatlands can act as either important sources or sinks for atmospheric carbon1,2. It is therefore important to understand how carbon cycling in these regions will respond to a changing climate. Existing carbon balance models for peatlands assume that fluid flow and advective mass transport are negligible at depth3,4, and that the effects of climate change should be essentially limited to the near-surface. Here we report the response of groundwater flow and porewater chemistry in the Glacial Lake Agassiz peat-lands of northern Minnesota to the regional drought cycle. Comparison of field observations and numerical simulations indicates that climate fluctuations of short duration may temporarily reverse the vertical direction of fluid flow through the peat, although this has little effect on water chemistry5. On the other hand, periods of drought persisting for at least 3-5 years produce striking changes in the chemistry of the pore water. These longer-term changes in hydrology influence the flux of nutrients and dissolved organic matter through the deeper peat, and therefore affect directly the rates of fermentation and methanogenesis, and the export of dissolved carbon compounds from the peatland.

  13. Pastoral suitability driven by future climate change along the Apennines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Camilla Dibari

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at evaluating the impacts of climate change on pastoral resources located along the Apennines chain. To this end, random forest machine learning model was first calibrated for the present period and then applied to future conditions, as projected by HadCM3 general circulation model, in order to simulate possible spatial variation/shift of pastoral areas in two time slices (centred on 2050 and 2080 under A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Pre-existent spatial database, namely Corine land cover map and WorldClim, were integrated and harmonised in a GIS environment in order to extract climate variables (mean seasonal precipitation, mean maximum temperature of the warmest month and minimum temperature of the coldest month and response variables (presence/absence of pastures to be used as model predictors. Random forest model resulted robust and coherent to simulate pastureland suitability under current climatology (classification accuracy error=19%. Accordingly, results indicated that increases in temperatures coupled with decreases in precipitation, as simulated by HadCM3 in the future, would have impacts of great concern on potential pasture distribution. In the specific, an overall decline of pasturelands suitability is predicted by the middle of the century in both A2 (–46% and B2 (–41% along the entire chain. However, despite alarming reductions in pastures suitability along the northern (–69% and –71% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively and central Apennines (–90% under both scenarios by the end of the century, expansions are predicted along the southern areas of the chain (+96% and +105% under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. This may be probably due to expansions in pastures dominated by xeric and thermophiles species, which will likely benefit from warmer and drier future conditions predicted in the southern zone of the chain by the HadCM3. Hence, the expected climate, coupled with an increasing abandonment of the

  14. Climate-change-driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nerem, R S; Beckley, B D; Fasullo, J T; Hamlington, B D; Masters, D; Mitchum, G T

    2018-02-27

    Using a 25-y time series of precision satellite altimeter data from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, Jason-2, and Jason-3, we estimate the climate-change-driven acceleration of global mean sea level over the last 25 y to be 0.084 ± 0.025 mm/y 2 Coupled with the average climate-change-driven rate of sea level rise over these same 25 y of 2.9 mm/y, simple extrapolation of the quadratic implies global mean sea level could rise 65 ± 12 cm by 2100 compared with 2005, roughly in agreement with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 5th Assessment Report (AR5) model projections. Copyright © 2018 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  15. Norwegian Arctic climate. Climate influencing emissions, scenarios and mitigation options at Svalbard

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vestreng, Vigdis; Kallenborn, Roland; Oekstad, Elin

    2010-07-01

    The goal of this study was to establish an emission inventory and emission scenarios for climate influencing compounds at Svalbard, as a basis to develop strategies for emission reduction measures and policies. Emissions for the years 2000-2007 have been estimated for the Svalbard Zone. This area, covering about 173 000 km{sub 2}, ranges from 10 E to 35 E longitude and 74 N to 81 N latitude (Figure 1). In addition, air and ship transport between Tromsoe at the Norwegian mainland and Svalbard has been included. Pollutants considered in our inventory are carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), methane (CH{sub 4}), Sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), Nitrogen oxides (NO{sub x} as NO{sub 2}), and for the first time also estimates of black carbon (BC, soot) and organic carbon (OC) have been included. Our results show that emissions of all pollutants have increased over the time span 2000-2007 (Figure 2), and are expected to increase also in the future if additional measures are not implemented (Figure 12). The emissions from Svalbard are minuscule compared to emission released from the Norwegian mainland and waters (1% in the case of CO{sub 2}). Even so, local releases of climate influencing compounds in the vulnerable Arctic may turn out to make a difference both with respect to adverse environmental effects and to climate change. Emissions have been estimated for all activities of any significance taking place at and around Svalbard. Combustion sources as well as fugitive emissions of methane are included. The main sectors are coal mining, energy production and transportation. Pollution from 28 sub sectors related to these activities has been estimated. The scope of this work differs from that covered by national inventories since emission estimates are based on the fuel consumed and include emissions from international shipping and aviation. Fuel consumption data were collected from local authorities, institutions and industry. Emission factors have been selected from relevant

  16. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Lessons from state climate action plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pollak, Melisa, E-mail: mpollak@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Meyer, Bryn, E-mail: meye1058@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States); Wilson, Elizabeth, E-mail: ewilson@umn.edu [Humphrey Institute of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455 (United States)

    2011-09-15

    We examine how state-level factors affect greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy preference across the United States by analyzing climate action plans (CAPs) developed in 11 states and surveying the CAP advisory group members. This research offers insights into how states approach the problem of choosing emissions-abatement options that maximize benefits and minimize costs, given their unique circumstances and the constellation of interest groups with power to influence state policy. The state CAPs recommended ten popular GHG reduction strategies to accomplish approximately 90% of emissions reductions, but they recommended these popular strategies in different proportions: a strategy that is heavily relied on in one state's overall portfolio may play a negligible role in another state. This suggests that any national policy to limit GHG emissions should encompass these key strategies, but with flexibility to allow states to balance their implementation for the state's unique geographic, economic, and political circumstances. Survey results strongly support the conclusion that decisions regarding GHG reductions are influenced by the mix of actors at the table. Risk perception is associated with job type for all strategies, and physical and/or geographic factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain GHG reduction strategies across states. - Highlights: > This study analyzed climate action plans from 12 states and surveyed the advisory group members. > Ten strategies supply 90% of recommended emission reductions, but states weigh them differently. > Advisory group members perceived different opportunities and risks in the top-ten strategies. > Both geographic and socio-political factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain strategies. > Cost, business practices and consumer behavior were ranked as the top barriers to reducing emissions.

  17. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions: Lessons from state climate action plans

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pollak, Melisa; Meyer, Bryn; Wilson, Elizabeth

    2011-01-01

    We examine how state-level factors affect greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction policy preference across the United States by analyzing climate action plans (CAPs) developed in 11 states and surveying the CAP advisory group members. This research offers insights into how states approach the problem of choosing emissions-abatement options that maximize benefits and minimize costs, given their unique circumstances and the constellation of interest groups with power to influence state policy. The state CAPs recommended ten popular GHG reduction strategies to accomplish approximately 90% of emissions reductions, but they recommended these popular strategies in different proportions: a strategy that is heavily relied on in one state's overall portfolio may play a negligible role in another state. This suggests that any national policy to limit GHG emissions should encompass these key strategies, but with flexibility to allow states to balance their implementation for the state's unique geographic, economic, and political circumstances. Survey results strongly support the conclusion that decisions regarding GHG reductions are influenced by the mix of actors at the table. Risk perception is associated with job type for all strategies, and physical and/or geographic factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain GHG reduction strategies across states. - Highlights: → This study analyzed climate action plans from 12 states and surveyed the advisory group members. → Ten strategies supply 90% of recommended emission reductions, but states weigh them differently. → Advisory group members perceived different opportunities and risks in the top-ten strategies. → Both geographic and socio-political factors may underlie the varying reliance on certain strategies. → Cost, business practices and consumer behavior were ranked as the top barriers to reducing emissions.

  18. Effect of land-use change and management on biogenic volatile organic compound emissions--selecting climate-smart cultivars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenkranz, Maaria; Pugh, Thomas A M; Schnitzler, Jörg-Peter; Arneth, Almut

    2015-09-01

    Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate not only via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared with natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here, we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land management and plant-breeding strategies, which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions while simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Monitoring, reporting and verifying emissions in the climate economy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellassen, Valentin; Stephan, Nicolas; Afriat, Marion; Alberola, Emilie; Barker, Alexandra; Chang, Jean-Pierre; Chiquet, Caspar; Cochran, Ian; Deheza, Mariana; Dimopoulos, Christopher; Foucherot, Claudine; Jacquier, Guillaume; Morel, Romain; Robinson, Roderick; Shishlov, Igor

    2015-04-01

    The monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) of greenhouse-gas emissions is the cornerstone of carbon pricing and management mechanisms. Here we consider peer-reviewed articles and 'grey literature' related to existing MRV requirements and their costs. A substantial part of the literature is the regulatory texts of the 15 most important carbon pricing and management mechanisms currently implemented. Based on a comparison of key criteria such as the scope, cost, uncertainty and flexibility of procedures, we conclude that conventional wisdom on MRV is not often promoted in existing carbon pricing mechanisms. Quantification of emissions uncertainty and incentives to reduce this uncertainty are usually only partially applied, if at all. Further, the time and resources spent on small sources of emissions would be expected to be limited. Although provisions aiming at an effort proportionate to the amount of emissions at stake -- 'materiality' -- are widespread, they are largely outweighed by economies of scale: in all schemes, MRV costs per tonne are primarily driven by the size of the source.

  20. Towards real energy economics: Energy policy driven by life-cycle carbon emission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kenny, R.; Law, C.; Pearce, J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Alternative energy technologies (AETs) have emerged as a solution to the challenge of simultaneously meeting rising electricity demand while reducing carbon emissions. However, as all AETs are responsible for some greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their construction, carbon emission 'Ponzi Schemes' are currently possible, wherein an AET industry expands so quickly that the GHG emissions prevented by a given technology are negated to fabricate the next wave of AET deployment. In an era where there are physical constraints to the GHG emissions the climate can sustain in the short term this may be unacceptable. To provide quantitative solutions to this problem, this paper introduces the concept of dynamic carbon life-cycle analyses, which generate carbon-neutral growth rates. These conceptual tools become increasingly important as the world transitions to a low-carbon economy by reducing fossil fuel combustion. In choosing this method of evaluation it was possible to focus uniquely on reducing carbon emissions to the recommended levels by outlining the most carbon-effective approach to climate change mitigation. The results of using dynamic life-cycle analysis provide policy makers with standardized information that will drive the optimization of electricity generation for effective climate change mitigation.

  1. Economic implications of climate-driven trends in global hydropower generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, S. W. D.; Galelli, S.; Hejazi, M. I.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.; Kim, S. H.

    2017-12-01

    Recent progress in global scale hydrological and dam modeling has allowed for the study of climate change impacts on global hydropower production. Here we explore how these impacts could affect the composition of global electricity supply, and what those changes could mean for power sector emissions and investment needs in the 21st century. Regional hydropower projections are developed for two emissions scenarios by forcing a coupled global hydrological and dam model (1593 major hydropower dams; 54% global installed capacity) with downscaled, bias-corrected climate realizations derived from sixteen General Circulation Models (GCMs). To incorporate possible non-linearity in hydropower response to climate change, dam simulations incorporate plant specifications (e.g., maximum turbine flow), reservoir storage dynamics, reservoir bathymetry, evaporation losses and bespoke, site specific operations. Consequent impacts on regional and global-level electricity generation and associated emissions and investment costs are examined using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). We show that changes in hydropower generation resulting from climate change can shift power demands onto and away from carbon intensive technologies, resulting in significant impacts on CO2 emissions for several regions. Many of these countries are also highly vulnerable to investment impacts (costs of new electricity generating facilities to make up for shortfalls in hydro), which in some cases amount to tens of billions of dollars by 2100. The Balkans region—typified by weak economies in a drying region that relies heavily on hydropower—emerges as the most vulnerable. Reduced impacts of climate change on hydropower production under a low emissions scenario coincide with increased costs of marginal power generating capacity (low emissions requires greater uptake of clean generating technologies, which are more expensive). This means impacts on power sector investment costs are similar for high

  2. Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

    2017-05-01

    Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range

  3. Climate of opinion risks undermining war on emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-06-15

    Analysts in the US are becomingly increasingly vocal about how policies that are designed to combat the effects of climate change risk doing the exact opposite, because they are so heavily in favour of 'renewables' that they are putting increasing pressure on the country's biggest source of zero-emissions power - nuclear. What makes this and reports interesting reading is that the so-called 'German experience' - where nuclear power continues to be gradually phased out for political reasons - is proving a sobering thought for the US. Policies that force nuclear out of the mix of resources with which to combat climate change will prove to be short-sighted and the consequences far reaching. (orig.)

  4. A Data-Driven Assessment of the Sensitivity of Global Ecosystems to Climate Anomalies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miralles, D. G.; Papagiannopoulou, C.; Demuzere, M.; Decubber, S.; Waegeman, W.; Verhoest, N.; Dorigo, W.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation is a central player in the climate system, constraining atmospheric conditions through a series of feedbacks. This fundamental role highlights the importance of understanding regional drivers of ecological sensitivity and the response of vegetation to climatic changes. While nutrient availability and short-term disturbances can be crucial for vegetation at various spatiotemporal scales, natural vegetation dynamics are overall driven by climate. At monthly scales, the interactions between vegetation and climate become complex: some vegetation types react preferentially to specific climatic changes, with different levels of intensity, resilience and lagged response. For our current Earth System Models (ESMs) being able to capture this complexity is crucial but extremely challenging. This adds uncertainty to our projections of future climate and the fate of global ecosystems. Here, following a Granger causality framework based on a non-linear random forest predictive model, we exploit the current wealth of satellite data records to uncover the main climatic drivers of monthly vegetation variability globally. Results based on three decades of satellite data indicate that water availability is the most dominant factor driving vegetation in over 60% of the vegetated land. This overall dependency of ecosystems on water availability is larger than previously reported, partly owed to the ability of our machine-learning framework to disentangle the co-linearites between climatic drivers, and to quantify non-linear impacts of climate on vegetation. Our observation-based results are then used to benchmark ESMs on their representation of vegetation sensitivity to climate and climatic extremes. Our findings indicate that the sensitivity of vegetation to climatic anomalies is ill-reproduced by some widely-used ESMs.

  5. Evaluate transport processes in MERRA driven chemical transport models using updated 222Rn emission inventories and global observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, B.; Liu, H.; Crawford, J. H.; Fairlie, T. D.; Chen, G.; Chambers, S. D.; Kang, C. H.; Williams, A. G.; Zhang, K.; Considine, D. B.; Payer Sulprizio, M.; Yantosca, R.

    2015-12-01

    Convective and synoptic processes play a major role in determining the transport and distribution of trace gases and aerosols in the troposphere. The representation of these processes in global models (at ~100-1000 km horizontal resolution) is challenging, because convection is a sub-grid process and needs to be parameterized, while synoptic processes are close to the grid scale. Depending on the parameterization schemes used in climate models, the role of convection in transporting trace gases and aerosols may vary from model to model. 222Rn is a chemically inert and radioactive gas constantly emitted from soil and has a half-life (3.8 days) comparable to synoptic timescale, which makes it an effective tracer for convective and synoptic transport. In this study, we evaluate the convective and synoptic transport in two chemical transport models (GMI and GEOS-Chem), both driven by the NASA's MERRA reanalysis. Considering the uncertainties in 222Rn emissions, we incorporate two more recent scenarios with regionally varying 222Rn emissions into GEOS-Chem/MERRA and compare the simulation results with those using the relatively uniform 222Rn emissions in the standard model. We evaluate the global distribution and seasonality of 222Rn concentrations simulated by the two models against an extended collection of 222Rn observations from 1970s to 2010s. The intercomparison will improve our understanding of the spatial variability in global 222Rn emissions, including the suspected excessive 222Rn emissions in East Asia, and provide useful feedbacks on 222Rn emission models. We will assess 222Rn vertical distributions at different latitudes in the models using observations at surface sites and in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Results will be compared with previous models driven by other meteorological fields (e.g., fvGCM and GEOS4). Since the decay of 222Rn is the source of 210Pb, a useful radionuclide tracer attached to submicron aerosols, improved

  6. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions for climate stabilization: framing regional options.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olabisi, Laura Schmitt; Reich, Peter B; Johnson, Kris A; Kapuscinski, Anne R; Su, Sangwon H; Wilson, Elizabeth J

    2009-03-15

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations will require reduction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by as much as 80% by 2050. Subnational efforts to cut emissions will inform policy development nationally and globally. We projected GHG mitigation strategies for Minnesota, which has adopted a strategic goal of 80% emissions reduction by 2050. A portfolio of conservation strategies, including electricity conservation, increased vehicle fleet fuel efficiency, and reduced vehicle miles traveled, is likely the most cost-effective option for Minnesota and could reduce emissions by 18% below 2005 levels. An 80% GHG reduction would require complete decarbonization of the electricity and transportation sectors, combined with carbon capture and sequestration at power plants, or deep cuts in other relatively more intransigent GHG-emitting sectors. In order to achieve ambitious GHG reduction goals, policymakers should promote aggressive conservation efforts, which would probably have negative net costs, while phasing in alternative fuels to replace coal and motor gasoline over the long-term.

  7. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions for climate stabilization: framing regional options

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laura Schmitt Olabisi; Peter B. Reich; Kris A. Johnson; Anne R. Kapuscinski; Sangwon Suh; Elizabeth J. Wilson [University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN (United States). Ecosystem Science and Sustainability Initiative

    2009-03-15

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has stated that stabilizing atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations will require reduction of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by as much as 80% by 2050. Subnational efforts to cut emissions will inform policy development nationally and globally. We projected GHG mitigation strategies for Minnesota, which has adopted a strategic goal of 80% emissions reduction by 2050. A portfolio of conservation strategies, including electricity conservation, increased vehicle fleet fuel efficiency, and reduced vehicle miles traveled, is likely the most cost-effective option for Minnesota and could reduce emissions by 18% below 2005 levels. An 80% GHG reduction would require complete decarbonization of the electricity and transportation sectors, combined with carbon capture and sequestration at power plants, or deep cuts in other relatively more intransigent GHG-emitting sectors. In order to achieve ambitious GHG reduction goals, policymakers should promote aggressive conservation efforts, which would probably have negative net costs, while phasing in alternative fuels to replace coal and motor gasoline over the long-term. 31 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Irreversible climate change due to carbon dioxide emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Susan; Plattner, Gian-Kasper; Knutti, Reto; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2009-01-01

    The severity of damaging human-induced climate change depends not only on the magnitude of the change but also on the potential for irreversibility. This paper shows that the climate change that takes place due to increases in carbon dioxide concentration is largely irreversible for 1,000 years after emissions stop. Following cessation of emissions, removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide decreases radiative forcing, but is largely compensated by slower loss of heat to the ocean, so that atmospheric temperatures do not drop significantly for at least 1,000 years. Among illustrative irreversible impacts that should be expected if atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase from current levels near 385 parts per million by volume (ppmv) to a peak of 450–600 ppmv over the coming century are irreversible dry-season rainfall reductions in several regions comparable to those of the “dust bowl” era and inexorable sea level rise. Thermal expansion of the warming ocean provides a conservative lower limit to irreversible global average sea level rise of at least 0.4–1.0 m if 21st century CO2 concentrations exceed 600 ppmv and 0.6–1.9 m for peak CO2 concentrations exceeding ≈1,000 ppmv. Additional contributions from glaciers and ice sheet contributions to future sea level rise are uncertain but may equal or exceed several meters over the next millennium or longer. PMID:19179281

  9. Optical field emission from resonant gold nanorods driven by femtosecond mid-infrared pulses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kusa, F. [Department of Applied Physics, Tokyo University of Agriculture and Technology, 2-24-16 Nakacho, Koganei Tokyo 184-8588 (Japan); Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Echternkamp, K. E.; Herink, G.; Ropers, C. [4th Physical Institute – Solids and Nanostructures, University of Göttingen, 37077 Göttingen (Germany); Ashihara, S., E-mail: ashihara@iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp [Institute of Industrial Science, the University of Tokyo, 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan)

    2015-07-15

    We demonstrate strong-field photoelectron emission from gold nanorods driven by femtosecond mid-infrared optical pulses. The maximum photoelectron yield is reached at the localized surface plasmon resonance, indicating that the photoemission is governed by the resonantly-enhanced optical near-field. The wavelength- and field-dependent photoemission yield allows for a noninvasive determination of local field enhancements, and we obtain intensity enhancement factors close to 1300, in good agreement with finite-difference time domain computations.

  10. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Schmid, B. V.; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. R.; Ginzler, Ch.; Walloe, L.; Bramanti, B.; Stenseth, N. C.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 112, č. 10 (2015), s. 3020-3025 ISSN 0027-8424 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : yersinia-pestis * xenopsylla-cheopis * bubonic plague * central-asia * synchrony * dynamics * transmission * temperature * populations * thresholds * Yersinia pestis * medieval epidemiology * climate-driven disease dynamics Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 9.423, year: 2015 http://www.pnas.org/content/112/10/3020.full.pdf

  11. The contribution of China's emissions to global climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-17

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on "common but differentiated responsibilities" reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China's present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China's relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China's strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China's eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  12. Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

    2009-12-29

    A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

  13. Contemporary white-band disease in Caribbean corals driven by climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randall, C. J.; van Woesik, R.

    2015-04-01

    Over the past 40 years, two of the dominant reef-building corals in the Caribbean, Acropora palmata and Acropora cervicornis, have experienced unprecedented declines. That loss has been largely attributed to a syndrome commonly referred to as white-band disease. Climate change-driven increases in sea surface temperature (SST) have been linked to several coral diseases, yet, despite decades of research, the attribution of white-band disease to climate change remains unknown. Here we hindcasted the potential relationship between recent ocean warming and outbreaks of white-band disease on acroporid corals. We quantified eight SST metrics, including rates of change in SST and contemporary thermal anomalies, and compared them with records of white-band disease on A. palmata and A. cervicornis from 473 sites across the Caribbean, surveyed from 1997 to 2004. The results of our models suggest that decades-long climate-driven changes in SST, increases in thermal minima, and the breach of thermal maxima have all played significant roles in the spread of white-band disease. We conclude that white-band disease has been strongly coupled with thermal stresses associated with climate change, which has contributed to the regional decline of these once-dominant reef-building corals.

  14. The demography of climate-driven and density-regulated population dynamics in a perennial plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dahlgren, Johan; Bengstsson, Karin; Ehrlén, Johan

    2016-01-01

    Identifying the internal and external drivers of population dynamics is a key objective in ecology, currently accentuated by the need to forecast the effects of climate change on species distributions and abundances. The interplay between environmental and density effects is one particularly...... important aspect of such forecasts. We examined the simultaneous impact of climate and intraspecific density on vital rates of the dwarf shrub Fumana procumbens over 20 yr, using generalized additive mixed models. We then analyzed effects on population dynamics using integral projection models...... to be driven solely by the environment can overestimate extinction risks if there is density dependence. We conclude that density regulation can dampen effects of climate change on Fumana population size, and discuss the need to quantify density dependence in predictions of population responses...

  15. The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; van Rooijen, Arnold; van Dongeren, Ap; Cheriton, Olivia

    2015-01-01

    A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

  16. The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quataert, Ellen; Storlazzi, Curt; Rooijen, Arnold; Cheriton, Olivia; Dongeren, Ap

    2015-08-01

    A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

  17. Greenness and Carbon Stocks of Mangroves: A climate-driven Effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lule, A. V.; Colditz, R. R.; Herrera-Silveira, J.; Guevara, M.; Rodriguez-Zuniga, M. T.; Cruz, I.; Ressl, R.; Vargas, R.

    2017-12-01

    Mangroves cover less than 1% of the earth's surface and are one o­­­f the most productive ecosystems of the world. They are highly vulnerable to climate variability due to their sensitivity to environmental changes; therefore, there are scientific and societal needs to designed frameworks to assess mangrove's vulnerability. We study the relationship between climate drivers, canopy greenness and carbon stocks to quantify a potential climate-driven effect on mangrove carbon dynamics. We identify greenness trends and their relationships with climate drivers and carbon stocks throughout 15 years (2001-2015) across mangrove forests of Mexico. We defined several categories for mangroves: a) Arid mangroves with superficial water input (ARsw); b) Humid mangroves with interior or underground water input (HUiw); and c) Humid mangroves with superficial water input (HUsw). We found a positive significant trend of greenness for ARsw and HUsw categories (pmangrove's categories (pmangrove categories showed higher greenness values during winter; which is likely driven by temperature with a lag of -3 to -5 months (r2 > 0.69). Precipitation and temperature drive canopy greenness only across HUsw. Regarding carbon stocks, the HUiw shows the lower amount of aboveground carbon (AGC; 12.7 Mg C ha-1) and the higher belowground carbon (BGC; 219 Mg C ha-1). The HUsw shows the higher amount of AGC (169.5 Mg C ha-1) and the ARsw the lower of BGC (92.4 Mg C ha-1). Climate drivers are better related with canopy greenness and AGC for both humid mangrove categories (r2 > 0.48), while the relationship of BGC and canopy greenness is lower for all categories (r2 mangrove's ecosystem function and environmental services, as well as their potential vulnerability to climate variability.

  18. Managing uncertainty in climate-driven ecological models to inform adaptation to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeremy S. Littell; Donald McKenzie; Becky K. Kerns; Samuel Cushman; Charles G. Shaw

    2011-01-01

    The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems are likely to require changes in forest planning and natural resource management. Changes in tree growth, disturbance extent and intensity, and eventually species distributions are expected. In natural resource management and planning, ecosystem models are typically used to provide a "best estimate" about how...

  19. Climate Change driven evolution of hazards to Europe's transport infrastructure throughout the twenty-first century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matulla, Christoph; Hollósi, Brigitta; Andre, Konrad; Gringinger, Julia; Chimani, Barbara; Namyslo, Joachim; Fuchs, Tobias; Auerbach, Markus; Herrmann, Carina; Sladek, Brigitte; Berghold, Heimo; Gschier, Roland; Eichinger-Vill, Eva

    2017-06-01

    Road authorities, freight, and logistic industries face a multitude of challenges in a world changing at an ever growing pace. While globalization, changes in technology, demography, and traffic, for instance, have received much attention over the bygone decades, climate change has not been treated with equal care until recently. However, since it has been recognized that climate change jeopardizes many business areas in transport, freight, and logistics, research programs investigating future threats have been initiated. One of these programs is the Conference of European Directors of Roads' (CEDR) Transnational Research Programme (TRP), which emerged about a decade ago from a cooperation between European National Road Authorities and the EU. This paper presents findings of a CEDR project called CliPDaR, which has been designed to answer questions from road authorities concerning climate-driven future threats to transport infrastructure. Pertaining results are based on two potential future socio-economic pathways of mankind (one strongly economically oriented "A2" and one more balanced scenario "A1B"), which are used to drive global climate models (GCMs) producing global and continental scale climate change projections. In order to achieve climate change projections, which are valid on regional scales, GCM projections are downscaled by regional climate models. Results shown here originate from research questions raised by European Road Authorities. They refer to future occurrence frequencies of severely cold winter seasons in Fennoscandia, to particularly hot summer seasons in the Iberian Peninsula and to changes in extreme weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting in Central Europe. Future occurrence frequencies of extreme winter and summer conditions are investigated by empirical orthogonal function analyses of GCM projections driven with by A2 and A1B pathways. The analysis of future weather phenomena triggering landslides and rutting events requires

  20. Climate change: evidence of human causes and arguments for emissions reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baum, Seth D; Haqq-Misra, Jacob D; Karmosky, Chris

    2012-06-01

    In a recent editorial, Raymond Spier expresses skepticism over claims that climate change is driven by human actions and that humanity should act to avoid climate change. This paper responds to this skepticism as part of a broader review of the science and ethics of climate change. While much remains uncertain about the climate, research indicates that observed temperature increases are human-driven. Although opinions vary regarding what should be done, prominent arguments against action are based on dubious factual and ethical positions. Thus, the skepticisms in the recent editorial are unwarranted. This does not diminish the general merits of skeptical intellectual inquiry.

  1. The implications of China’s investment-driven economy on its energy consumption and carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fu, Feng; Ma, Linwei; Li, Zheng; Polenske, Karen R.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The energy implications of China’s investment-driven (ID) economy are analyzed. • An expenditure-approach-based framework is applied to define the ID energy consumption. • An input–output model is built to identify the volume of China’s ID energy consumption. • Insights are gained for determining the saving potentials of China’s ID energy consumption. - Abstract: In this paper, we aim to fill the research gap by analyzing the relationship between China’s domestic investment and energy consumption, as well as related carbon emissions. First, we use an expenditure-approach-based framework to qualitatively examine the effects of China’s domestic investment on its energy consumption. Based on this framework, we define and differentiate the investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions from that which is driven by other economic activities. Second, we establish an allocation model to quantify China’s investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions. The results reveal that in 2007, China’s domestic investment contributed one third of both its energy consumption and carbon emissions. Further results show that a majority of this investment-driven energy consumption and carbon emissions, namely nine tenths of the total, is attributable to the construction and manufacturing sectors. Finally, we use the construction sector as a case to discuss how to determine the energy-saving and emission-reduction potential of improving investment-driven energy consumption practices

  2. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Lindgren, Michael A.; Schmidt, Jennifer I.; Rupp, T. Scott; Adams, Layne G.

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (−21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (−11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  3. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David D Gustine

    Full Text Available Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs, and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21% than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%. Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  4. Climate-driven effects of fire on winter habitat for caribou in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustine, David D; Brinkman, Todd J; Lindgren, Michael A; Schmidt, Jennifer I; Rupp, T Scott; Adams, Layne G

    2014-01-01

    Climatic warming has direct implications for fire-dominated disturbance patterns in northern ecosystems. A transforming wildfire regime is altering plant composition and successional patterns, thus affecting the distribution and potentially the abundance of large herbivores. Caribou (Rangifer tarandus) are an important subsistence resource for communities throughout the north and a species that depends on terrestrial lichen in late-successional forests and tundra systems. Projected increases in area burned and reductions in stand ages may reduce lichen availability within caribou winter ranges. Sufficient reductions in lichen abundance could alter the capacity of these areas to support caribou populations. To assess the potential role of a changing fire regime on winter habitat for caribou, we used a simulation modeling platform, two global circulation models (GCMs), and a moderate emissions scenario to project annual fire characteristics and the resulting abundance of lichen-producing vegetation types (i.e., spruce forests and tundra >60 years old) across a modeling domain that encompassed the winter ranges of the Central Arctic and Porcupine caribou herds in the Alaskan-Yukon Arctic. Fires were less numerous and smaller in tundra compared to spruce habitats throughout the 90-year projection for both GCMs. Given the more likely climate trajectory, we projected that the Porcupine caribou herd, which winters primarily in the boreal forest, could be expected to experience a greater reduction in lichen-producing winter habitats (-21%) than the Central Arctic herd that wintered primarily in the arctic tundra (-11%). Our results suggest that caribou herds wintering in boreal forest will undergo fire-driven reductions in lichen-producing habitats that will, at a minimum, alter their distribution. Range shifts of caribou resulting from fire-driven changes to winter habitat may diminish access to caribou for rural communities that reside in fire-prone areas.

  5. Recent climatic change, greenhouse gas emissions and future climate: The implications for India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, P. Govinda; Kelly, P. M.; Hulme, M.

    1996-03-01

    In this paper, we discuss past climatic trends over India, greenhouse gas emissions due to energy consumption, forest and land-use changes, climate change scenarios for the year 2050, potential consequences for agriculture and cyclone activity and the possibility that India might limit the increasing trend in its emissions. India's mean surface air temperature has increased significantly by about 0.4°C over the past ccntury. Neither monsoon nor annual rainfall shows any significant trend. On average, there has been a rise in sea levels around India over recent decades, though considerable uncertainties exist in the accuracy and interpretation of the available data. Carbon emissions from the energy sector amount to 71 MT a year, equivalent to all other sectors combined. From land-use data, a marginal net sequestration of 5.25 million tonnes of carbon occurred during 1986. Following the IPCC guidelines, methane emissions from rice and livestock are estimated at 17.4 and 12.8 Tg/year, respectively. According to recent climate model projections, India may experience a further rise in temperature of 1 °C by the year 2050, about four times the rate of warming experienced over the past 100 years. A modest increase in precipitation amounts might occur. Cereals production is estimated to decrease and the nutrition security of the population-rich but land-hungry region of India might be hampered. An increase in local tropical cyclone activity may occur over thc next century, posing added problems as large areas in the coastal regions have a dense population. About 70% of the electricity generation in India is from coal-based power stations. Altering this dependence significantly to reduce emissions would imply a substantial change in the present energy policy of India. There is great potential for improving energy efficiency and conservation. The adoption of cleaner coal-technologies should be considered, as must the development of renewable, non-conventional energy

  6. Cathode fall model and current-voltage characteristics of field emission driven direct current microplasmas

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Venkattraman, Ayyaswamy [Department of Applied Mechanics, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai 600036 (India)

    2013-11-15

    The post-breakdown characteristics of field emission driven microplasma are studied theoretically and numerically. A cathode fall model assuming a linearly varying electric field is used to obtain equations governing the operation of steady state field emission driven microplasmas. The results obtained from the model by solving these equations are compared with particle-in-cell with Monte Carlo collisions simulation results for parameters including the plasma potential, cathode fall thickness, ion number density in the cathode fall, and current density vs voltage curves. The model shows good overall agreement with the simulations but results in slightly overpredicted values for the plasma potential and the cathode fall thickness attributed to the assumed electric field profile. The current density vs voltage curves obtained show an arc region characterized by negative slope as well as an abnormal glow discharge characterized by a positive slope in gaps as small as 10 μm operating at atmospheric pressure. The model also retrieves the traditional macroscale current vs voltage theory in the absence of field emission.

  7. Cathode fall model and current-voltage characteristics of field emission driven direct current microplasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Venkattraman, Ayyaswamy

    2013-01-01

    The post-breakdown characteristics of field emission driven microplasma are studied theoretically and numerically. A cathode fall model assuming a linearly varying electric field is used to obtain equations governing the operation of steady state field emission driven microplasmas. The results obtained from the model by solving these equations are compared with particle-in-cell with Monte Carlo collisions simulation results for parameters including the plasma potential, cathode fall thickness, ion number density in the cathode fall, and current density vs voltage curves. The model shows good overall agreement with the simulations but results in slightly overpredicted values for the plasma potential and the cathode fall thickness attributed to the assumed electric field profile. The current density vs voltage curves obtained show an arc region characterized by negative slope as well as an abnormal glow discharge characterized by a positive slope in gaps as small as 10 μm operating at atmospheric pressure. The model also retrieves the traditional macroscale current vs voltage theory in the absence of field emission

  8. Climate-driven changes in functional biogeography of Arctic marine fish communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frainer, André; Primicerio, Raul; Kortsch, Susanne; Aune, Magnus; Dolgov, Andrey V; Fossheim, Maria; Aschan, Michaela M

    2017-11-14

    Climate change triggers poleward shifts in species distribution leading to changes in biogeography. In the marine environment, fish respond quickly to warming, causing community-wide reorganizations, which result in profound changes in ecosystem functioning. Functional biogeography provides a framework to address how ecosystem functioning may be affected by climate change over large spatial scales. However, there are few studies on functional biogeography in the marine environment, and none in the Arctic, where climate-driven changes are most rapid and extensive. We investigated the impact of climate warming on the functional biogeography of the Barents Sea, which is characterized by a sharp zoogeographic divide separating boreal from Arctic species. Our unique dataset covered 52 fish species, 15 functional traits, and 3,660 stations sampled during the recent warming period. We found that the functional traits characterizing Arctic fish communities, mainly composed of small-sized bottom-dwelling benthivores, are being rapidly replaced by traits of incoming boreal species, particularly the larger, longer lived, and more piscivorous species. The changes in functional traits detected in the Arctic can be predicted based on the characteristics of species expected to undergo quick poleward shifts in response to warming. These are the large, generalist, motile species, such as cod and haddock. We show how functional biogeography can provide important insights into the relationship between species composition, diversity, ecosystem functioning, and environmental drivers. This represents invaluable knowledge in a period when communities and ecosystems experience rapid climate-driven changes across biogeographical regions. Copyright © 2017 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.

  9. Climate protection and emission trading in the agriculture; Klimaschutz und Emissionshandel in der Landwirtschaft

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luenenbuerger, Benjamin

    2013-01-15

    The percentage of the agriculture in the greenhouse-gas emissions in Germany amounts 7.1% in the year 2010. Despite its importance, climate protection instruments in the area of the German agriculture are still not developed. There are hardly special regulatory, informational or market-based instruments for the climate protection in the agriculture. The question arises whether the emission trading can be a suitable instrument for climate protection in the agriculture. Thus, the opportunities of the emission trading in the agriculture are investigated. Moreover, alternative and additional instruments of climate protection are considered with respect to the agriculture.

  10. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J.-F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-05-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual

  11. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979–2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J. -F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2014-01-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979–2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation

  12. CLIMOOR. Climate driven changes in the functioning of heath and moorland ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Beier, C. [ed.; Tietema, A.; Riis Nielsen, T.; Emmett, B.; Estiarte, M.; Penuelas, J.; Llorens Guash, L.; Williams, D.; Gordon, C.; Pugh, B.; Roda, F.; Gundersen, P.; Gorissen, A.

    2000-01-01

    Emission of green house gases, partly generated from human activities, reduces the loss of heat from the earth thereby potentially causing climate change. This change in climate has been predicted to result in a 1-3 deg. C increase in temperature with more vigorous rainstorms and prolonged drought periods in the coming 100 years. The consequence of such climatic changes for the terrestrial ecosystems are largely unknown. In order to improve our understanding of the ecosystem response to climate change and thereby to improve the basis for the international negotiations and political decisions to avoid or minimise climate change and its effects, a European research project CLIMOOR has been initiated. The project is a cross European research project involving 6 research groups from Denmark, the Netherlands, UK and Spain and is funded by EU and the participating institutions. The project investigates the potential effects of warming and drought on heath and moorland ecosystems at four European sites. The ecosystems are manipulated at field scale by reducing the heat loss at night by IR-reflective curtains and by removing the precipitation during a 2 month period in the summer. The effects of these manipulations on the plants and the soil are studied. This report describes the technique used to apply the climate change at field scale and presents some preliminary results after the first growing season. EU and the participating institutions fund CLIMOOR. (au)

  13. Sensitivity of Water Scarcity Events to ENSO-Driven Climate Variability at the Global Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Eisner, S.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

    2015-01-01

    Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961-2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4% of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6% (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1% (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4% (CTA) and 15.9% (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity

  14. Etude Climat no. 33 'Joint Implementation: a frontier mechanism within the borders of an emissions cap'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shishlov, Igor; Bellassen, Valentin; Leguet, Benoit

    2012-01-01

    Among the publications of CDC Climat Research, 'Climate Reports' offer in-depth analyses on a given subject. This issue addresses the following points: Based on specific projects rather than economy-wide emissions reductions, and driven by the demand from the installations covered by the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS), Joint Implementation (JI) turned out to be a largely private sector mechanism. Besides attracting private investors in GHG abatement projects, JI creates an opportunity for countries to exploit the arbitrage price spread between different carbon offsets: Emission Reduction Units (ERU), the credits issued from JI projects, trade with a premium of up to 50% over Assigned Amount Units (AAU), the country-level carbon allowances. Some countries, like for instance Ukraine, quickly realized the added value of JI and boosted its development, while in others, like Russia, JI lacked political support and efficient frameworks took time to be established. According to the ERU supply forecasting model developed by CDC Climat Research, Annex I countries are expected to generate up to 356 million ERUs for the first Kyoto commitment period. Around 80% of these credits shall originate from Russia and Ukraine, and up to 70 million shall be generated from countries participating in the EU ETS. Within the EU, JI has been used as a 'frontier mechanism': JI projects mostly explored abatement opportunities not covered by the scheme and, as highlighted by the case of nitrous oxide emissions from the production of nitric acid, played an important role in identifying abatement technologies and providing information to extend the scope of the EU ETS. One of the most complex issues related to JI is the practice of additionality. The cases of France and Ukraine demonstrate that the stakes associated with additionality may differ depending on a country's compliance position. In Ukraine, additionality was not perceived as a significant economic risk due to a

  15. Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasoar, M.; Voulgarakis, Apostolos; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Bellouin, Nicholas; Collins, William J.; Faluvegi, Greg; Tsigaridis, Kostas

    2016-01-01

    We use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against

  16. Arctic Vegetation under Climate Change – Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound Emissions and Leaf Anatomy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schollert, Michelle

    common arctic plant species, illustrating the great importance of vegetation composition for determining ecosystem BVOC emissions. Additionally, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses in common arctic plant species to effects of climate change: warming, shading and snow addition. Against...... treatment effects on BVOC emissions. Furthermore, the anatomy of arctic plants seems to respond differently to warming than species at lower latitudes. The results in this thesis demonstrate the complexity of the effects of climate change on BVOC emissions and leaf anatomy of arctic plant species...... emissions from the arctic region are assumed to be low, but data from the region is lacking. BVOC emissions are furthermore expected to change drastically due to the rapidly proceeding climate change in the Arctic, which can provide a feedback to climate warming of unknown direction and magnitude. BVOC...

  17. Quantifying the climate impact of emissions from land-based transport in Germany

    OpenAIRE

    Hendricks, J.; Righi, M.; Dahlmann, K.; Gottschaldt, K.-D.; Grewe, V.; Ponater, M.; Sausen, R.; Heinrichs, D.; Winkler, C.; Wolfermann, A.; Kampffmeyer, T.; Friedrich, R; Klötzke, M.; Kugler, U.

    2017-01-01

    Although climate change is a global problem, specific mitigation measures are frequently applied on regional or national scales only. This is the case in particular for measures to reduce the emissions of land-based transport, which is largely characterized by regional or national systems with independent infrastructure, organization, and regulation. The climate perturbations caused by regional transport emissions are small compared to those resulting from global emissions. Consequently, they...

  18. Climate-driven ground-level ozone extreme in the fall over the Southeast United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yuzhong; Wang, Yuhang

    2016-09-06

    Ground-level ozone is adverse to human and vegetation health. High ground-level ozone concentrations usually occur over the United States in the summer, often referred to as the ozone season. However, observed monthly mean ozone concentrations in the southeastern United States were higher in October than July in 2010. The October ozone average in 2010 reached that of July in the past three decades (1980-2010). Our analysis shows that this extreme October ozone in 2010 over the Southeast is due in part to a dry and warm weather condition, which enhances photochemical production, air stagnation, and fire emissions. Observational evidence and modeling analysis also indicate that another significant contributor is enhanced emissions of biogenic isoprene, a major ozone precursor, from water-stressed plants under a dry and warm condition. The latter finding is corroborated by recent laboratory and field studies. This climate-induced biogenic control also explains the puzzling fact that the two extremes of high October ozone both occurred in the 2000s when anthropogenic emissions were lower than the 1980s and 1990s, in contrast to the observed decreasing trend of July ozone in the region. The occurrences of a drying and warming fall, projected by climate models, will likely lead to more active photochemistry, enhanced biogenic isoprene and fire emissions, an extension of the ozone season from summer to fall, and an increase of secondary organic aerosols in the Southeast, posing challenges to regional air quality management.

  19. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    OpenAIRE

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, M.; Binner, A.; Coombes, E.; Day, B.; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, C.; Hutchins, M.; Lovett, A.; Posen, P.

    2016-01-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact...

  20. Quantitative criterion for quantum interference within spontaneous emission modification of a driven ladder atom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Jiaren; Zhang Zhiyi; Xiao George; Grover, C P

    2003-01-01

    The spontaneous emission spectrum of a ladder three-level atom with an upper transition driven by a coherent field is calculated under a universal model where various decays, any incoherent pumping and coherent driving are taken into account. The analytical expression for the spectrum profile is given on the basis of the quantum regression theorem. To our knowledge, it is the first time that the quantitative criterion condition Ω ab - γ ac vertical bar, under which quantum destructive interference induced by the coherent driving field occurs, is deduced for the modification of spontaneous emission from the middle level to the ground level. The roles and limits of incoherent pumping, coherent driving and experimental configuration are discussed for realizing the quantum interference and reducing the Doppler effects

  1. Particle-in-cell modeling of the nanosecond field emission driven discharge in pressurized hydrogen

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levko, Dmitry; Yatom, Shurik; Krasik, Yakov E.

    2018-02-01

    The high-voltage field-emission driven nanosecond discharge in pressurized hydrogen is studied using the one-dimensional Particle-in-Cell Monte Carlo collision model. It is obtained that the main part of the field-emitted electrons becomes runaway in the thin cathode sheath. These runaway electrons propagate the entire cathode-anode gap, creating rather dense (˜1012 cm-3) seeding plasma electrons. In addition, these electrons initiate a streamer propagating through this background plasma with a speed ˜30% of the speed of light. Such a high streamer speed allows the self-acceleration mechanism of runaway electrons present between the streamer head and the anode to be realized. As a consequence, the energy of runaway electrons exceeds the cathode-anode gap voltage. In addition, the influence of the field emission switching-off time is analyzed. It is obtained that this time significantly influences the discharge dynamics.

  2. International Experiences and Frameworks to Support Country-Driven Low-Emissions Development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benioff, R.; Cochran, J.; Cox, S.

    2012-08-01

    Countries can use low-emission development strategies (LEDS) to advance sustainable development, promote private-sector growth, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper proposes a framework -- or support infrastructure -- to enable the efficient exchange of LEDS-related knowledge and technical assistance. Under the proposed framework, countries share LEDS-related resources via coordinating forums, 'knowledge platforms,' and networks of experts and investors. The virtual 'knowledge platforms' foster learning by allowing countries to communicate with each other and share technical reports, data, and analysis tools in support of LEDS development. Investing in all elements of the framework in an integrated fashion increases the efficacy of support for country-driven LEDS.

  3. Influence of urbanization-driven land use/cover change on climate: The case of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arsiso, Bisrat Kifle; Mengistu Tsidu, Gizaw; Stoffberg, Gerrit Hendrik; Tadesse, Tsegaye

    2018-06-01

    Land use change is the second most important anthropogenic influence on climate beside the emission of greenhouse gases. Urbanization is leading to significant land use changes in Africa since the continent is undergoing rapid urbanization and population growth in recent decades. Addis Ababa is one of these fast growing cities in the continent. Therefore, detection of land use change is very important to identify its impact on climate and sustainable land use management of the city. The study used Landsat images to generate land use/land cover change map for the city. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) is used to detect the major changes of vegetation cover occurred between 1986 and 2011 as a result of land use and land cover change. Downscaled HadCM3 simulations under A2 and B2 emission scenarios is used to investigate future urban heat island (UHI) over the city of Addis Ababa. In the city, the analysis of Landsat images has shown that the built-up areas have increased by 121.88 km2 within the last 25 years. This finding is consistent with NDVI images taken over the same period that reveal a decline in vegetation cover. The impact of the urbanization-driven land use/cover change has resulted in notable nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) as revealed from an average increase in minimum temperature of 1.5 °C at the centre of the city relative to rural site over the 1960-2001 period. The mean of the 2006-2010 spatial minimum temperature anomaly with respect to the base period mean of 1981-2005 is consistent with the observed UHI. The temperature in the central areas (both commercial and residential sectors) of Addis Ababa is warmer than the surrounding areas. The thermal gradient increase from about 1.44 °C at the centre (Arada, Addis Ketema, Lideta and Kirkos) to 0.21 °C at the peripheral parts of the city (Gulele, Bole, Nefasilk-Lafto, Kolfe Keranio and east of Yeka sub-cities) transecting across the hot (high-density urban) to moderately warm to

  4. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Boris V; Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr

    2015-03-10

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe.

  5. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myksvoll, Mari S; Erikstad, Kjell E; Barrett, Robert T; Sandvik, Hanno; Vikebø, Frode

    2013-01-01

    Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  6. Climate-driven ichthyoplankton drift model predicts growth of top predator young.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mari S Myksvoll

    Full Text Available Climate variability influences seabird population dynamics in several ways including access to prey near colonies during the critical chick-rearing period. This study addresses breeding success in a Barents Sea colony of common guillemots Uria aalge where trophic conditions vary according to changes in the northward transport of warm Atlantic Water. A drift model was used to simulate interannual variations in transport of cod Gadus morhua larvae along the Norwegian coast towards their nursery grounds in the Barents Sea. The results showed that the arrival of cod larvae from southern spawning grounds had a major effect on the size of common guillemot chicks at fledging. Furthermore, the fraction of larvae from the south was positively correlated to the inflow of Atlantic Water into the Barents Sea thus clearly demonstrating the mechanisms by which climate-driven bottom-up processes influence interannual variations in reproductive success in a marine top predator.

  7. Climate-driven introduction of the Black Death and successive plague reintroductions into Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Easterday, W. Ryan; Ginzler, Christian; Walløe, Lars; Bramanti, Barbara; Stenseth, Nils Chr.

    2015-01-01

    The Black Death, originating in Asia, arrived in the Mediterranean harbors of Europe in 1347 CE, via the land and sea trade routes of the ancient Silk Road system. This epidemic marked the start of the second plague pandemic, which lasted in Europe until the early 19th century. This pandemic is generally understood as the consequence of a singular introduction of Yersinia pestis, after which the disease established itself in European rodents over four centuries. To locate these putative plague reservoirs, we studied the climate fluctuations that preceded regional plague epidemics, based on a dataset of 7,711 georeferenced historical plague outbreaks and 15 annually resolved tree-ring records from Europe and Asia. We provide evidence for repeated climate-driven reintroductions of the bacterium into European harbors from reservoirs in Asia, with a delay of 15 ± 1 y. Our analysis finds no support for the existence of permanent plague reservoirs in medieval Europe. PMID:25713390

  8. Evolution of the earliest horses driven by climate change in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Secord, Ross; Bloch, Jonathan I; Chester, Stephen G B; Boyer, Doug M; Wood, Aaron R; Wing, Scott L; Kraus, Mary J; McInerney, Francesca A; Krigbaum, John

    2012-02-24

    Body size plays a critical role in mammalian ecology and physiology. Previous research has shown that many mammals became smaller during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), but the timing and magnitude of that change relative to climate change have been unclear. A high-resolution record of continental climate and equid body size change shows a directional size decrease of ~30% over the first ~130,000 years of the PETM, followed by a ~76% increase in the recovery phase of the PETM. These size changes are negatively correlated with temperature inferred from oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth and were probably driven by shifts in temperature and possibly high atmospheric CO(2) concentrations. These findings could be important for understanding mammalian evolutionary responses to future global warming.

  9. Theropod Fauna from Southern Australia Indicates High Polar Diversity and Climate-Driven Dinosaur Provinciality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benson, Roger B. J.; Rich, Thomas H.; Vickers-Rich, Patricia; Hall, Mike

    2012-01-01

    hallmark ‘Gondwanan’ fauna of South America and Africa may therefore reflect climate-driven provinciality, not vicariant evolution driven by continental fragmentation. However, vicariance may still be detected at lower phylogenetic levels. PMID:22615916

  10. Field emission device driven by self-powered contact-electrification: Simulation and experimental analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiangyu; Jiang, Tao; Sun, Zhuo; Ou-Yang, Wei

    2015-09-01

    A self-powered field emission device (FED) driven by a single-electrode tribo-electric nanogenerator (TENG) is demonstrated. The mechanical motion works as both a power supply to drive the FED and a control unit to regulate the amount of emitted electrons. By using the Fowler-Nordheim equation and Kirchhoff laws, a theoretical model of this self-powered FED is proposed, and accordingly the real-time output characteristics of the device are systematically investigated. It is found that the motion distance of the TENG controls switch-on of the FED and determines the charge amount for emission, while the motion velocity regulates the amplitude of emission current. The minimum contact area for the TENG to generate field emission is about 9 cm2, which can be improved by optimizing FED structure and the tribo-materials of TENG. The demonstrated concept of this self-powered FED as well as the proposed physical analysis can serve as guidance for further applications of FED in such fields of self-powered electronics and soft electronics.

  11. Field emission device driven by self-powered contact-electrification: Simulation and experimental analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Xiangyu, E-mail: chenxiangyu@binn.cas.cn, E-mail: ouyangwei@phy.ecnu.edu.cn; Jiang, Tao [Beijing Institute of Nanoenergy and Nanosystems, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100083 (China); Sun, Zhuo; Ou-Yang, Wei, E-mail: chenxiangyu@binn.cas.cn, E-mail: ouyangwei@phy.ecnu.edu.cn [Engineering Research Center for Nanophotonics and Advanced Instrument, Ministry of Education, Department of Physics, East China Normal University, 3663 North Zhongshan Road, Shanghai 200062 (China)

    2015-09-14

    A self-powered field emission device (FED) driven by a single-electrode tribo-electric nanogenerator (TENG) is demonstrated. The mechanical motion works as both a power supply to drive the FED and a control unit to regulate the amount of emitted electrons. By using the Fowler-Nordheim equation and Kirchhoff laws, a theoretical model of this self-powered FED is proposed, and accordingly the real-time output characteristics of the device are systematically investigated. It is found that the motion distance of the TENG controls switch-on of the FED and determines the charge amount for emission, while the motion velocity regulates the amplitude of emission current. The minimum contact area for the TENG to generate field emission is about 9 cm{sup 2}, which can be improved by optimizing FED structure and the tribo-materials of TENG. The demonstrated concept of this self-powered FED as well as the proposed physical analysis can serve as guidance for further applications of FED in such fields of self-powered electronics and soft electronics.

  12. Field emission device driven by self-powered contact-electrification: Simulation and experimental analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Xiangyu; Jiang, Tao; Sun, Zhuo; Ou-Yang, Wei

    2015-01-01

    A self-powered field emission device (FED) driven by a single-electrode tribo-electric nanogenerator (TENG) is demonstrated. The mechanical motion works as both a power supply to drive the FED and a control unit to regulate the amount of emitted electrons. By using the Fowler-Nordheim equation and Kirchhoff laws, a theoretical model of this self-powered FED is proposed, and accordingly the real-time output characteristics of the device are systematically investigated. It is found that the motion distance of the TENG controls switch-on of the FED and determines the charge amount for emission, while the motion velocity regulates the amplitude of emission current. The minimum contact area for the TENG to generate field emission is about 9 cm 2 , which can be improved by optimizing FED structure and the tribo-materials of TENG. The demonstrated concept of this self-powered FED as well as the proposed physical analysis can serve as guidance for further applications of FED in such fields of self-powered electronics and soft electronics

  13. U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

    2009-02-01

    We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

  14. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender [Faculty of Mathematical and Natural Sciences, University of Prishtina (RS); Kabashi, Gazmend [Faculty of Electric Engineering and Computer Sciences, University of Prishtina, Prishtina (RS); Najdovski, Dimitrij [X3DATA, Novi trg 6, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Zidansek, Aleksander [Jozef Stefan Institute and Jozef Stefan International Postgraduate School, Jamova 39, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Slaus, Ivo [R. Boskovic Institute, Bijenicka 54, Zagreb (Croatia)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO{sub 2} emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4}, NO{sub x}, etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO{sub 2}, dust CH{sub x}, etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible. (author)

  15. Effects of Kosovo's energy use scenarios and associated gas emissions on its climate change and sustainable development

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kabashi, Skender; Bekteshi, Sadik; Ahmetaj, Skender; Kabashi, Gazmend; Najdovski, Dimitrij; Zidansek, Aleksander; Slaus, Ivo

    2011-01-01

    Climate change will be the first truly global challenge for sustainability. Energy production and consumption from fossil fuels has central role in respect to climate change, but also to sustainability in general. Because climate change is regionally driven with global consequences and is a result of economic imperatives and social values, it requires a redefinition as to the balance of these outcomes globally and regionally in Kosovo. Kosovo as one of the richest countries with lignite in Europe, with 95-97% of the electric power production from lignite and with 90% of vehicles over 10 years old, represents one of the regions with the greatest ratio of CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP, as well as one of the countries with the most polluted atmosphere in Europe. The modelling is carried out regionally for Kosovo for two dynamical systems which are the main emitters of greenhouse gases (CO 2 , CH 4 , NO x , etc.) and air pollutants (CO, SO 2 , dust CH x , etc.): electricity generation and transportation emissions systems, for the time period 2000-2025. Various energy scenarios of the future are shown. We demonstrate that a transition to environmentally compatible sustainable energy use in Kosovo is possible. Implementing the emission reduction policies and introducing new technologies in electrical power production and transportation in Kosovo ensure a sustainable future development in Kosovo, electric power production and transport that become increasingly environmentally compatible.

  16. Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012: impact of climate and land use changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J.-F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

    2013-11-01

    Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5° × 0.5° resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. This study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms hold a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of two) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a~factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trend in the emissions. An annual positive flux trend of 0.2% and 0.52% is found in Asia and China, respectively, through the entire period, related to positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g. from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979-2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (-0.4%), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated to the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are evaluated

  17. Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milly, P. C. D.; Cazenave, A.; Gennero, C.

    2003-01-01

    Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981–1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981–1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993–1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system. PMID:14576277

  18. Spectral decomposition of regulatory thresholds for climate-driven fluctuations in hydro- and wind power availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wörman, A.; Bottacin-Busolin, A.; Zmijewski, N.; Riml, J.

    2017-08-01

    Climate-driven fluctuations in the runoff and potential energy of surface water are generally large in comparison to the capacity of hydropower regulation, particularly when hydropower is used to balance the electricity production from covarying renewable energy sources such as wind power. To define the bounds of reservoir storage capacity, we introduce a dedicated reservoir volume that aggregates the storage capacity of several reservoirs to handle runoff from specific watersheds. We show how the storage bounds can be related to a spectrum of the climate-driven modes of variability in water availability and to the covariation between water and wind availability. A regional case study of the entire hydropower system in Sweden indicates that the longest regulation period possible to consider spans from a few days of individual subwatersheds up to several years, with an average limit of a couple of months. Watershed damping of the runoff substantially increases the longest considered regulation period and capacity. The high covariance found between the potential energy of the surface water and wind energy significantly reduces the longest considered regulation period when hydropower is used to balance the fluctuating wind power.

  19. The Influence of Emission Location on the Magnitude and Spatial Distribution of Aerosols' Climate Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Persad, G.; Caldeira, K.

    2017-12-01

    The global distribution of anthropogenic aerosol emissions has evolved continuously since the preindustrial era - from 20th century North American and Western European emissions hotspots to present-day South and East Asian ones. With this comes a relocation of the regional radiative, dynamical, and hydrological impacts of aerosol emissions, which may influence global climate differently depending on where they occur. A lack of understanding of this relationship between aerosol emissions' location and their global climate effects, however, obscures the potential influence that aerosols' evolving geographic distribution may have on global and regional climate change—a gap which we address in this work. Using a novel suite of experiments in the CESM CAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean, we systematically test and analyze mechanisms behind the relative climate impact of identical black carbon and sulfate aerosol emissions located in each of 8 past, present, or projected future major emissions regions. Results indicate that historically high emissions regions, such as North America and Western Europe, produce a stronger cooling effect than current and projected future high emissions regions. Aerosol emissions located in Western Europe produce 3 times the global mean cooling (-0.34 °C) as those located in East Africa or India (-0.11 °C). The aerosols' in-situ radiative effects remain relatively confined near the emissions region, but large distal cooling results from remote feedback processes - such as ice albedo and cloud changes - that are excited more strongly by emissions from certain regions than others. Results suggest that aerosol emissions from different countries should not be considered equal in the context of climate mitigation accounting, and that the evolving geographic distribution of aerosol emissions may have a substantial impact on the magnitude and spatial distribution of global climate change.

  20. Life cycle ecophysiology of small pelagic fish and climate-driven changes in populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peck, Myron A.; Reglero, Patricia; Takahashi, Motomitsu; Catalán, Ignacio A.

    2013-09-01

    Due to their population characteristics and trophodynamic role, small pelagic fishes are excellent bio-indicators of climate-driven changes in marine systems world-wide. We argue that making robust projections of future changes in the productivity and distribution of small pelagics will require a cause-and-effect understanding of historical changes based upon physiological principles. Here, we reviewed the ecophysiology of small pelagic (clupeiform) fishes including a matrix of abiotic and biotic extrinsic factors (e.g., temperature, salinity, light, and prey characteristics) and stage-specific vital rates: (1) adult spawning, (2) survival and development of eggs and yolk sac larvae, and (3) feeding and growth of larvae, post-larvae and juveniles. Emphasis was placed on species inhabiting Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic (European) waters for which summary papers are particularly scarce compared to anchovy and sardine in upwelling systems. Our review revealed that thermal niches (optimal and sub-optimal ranges in temperatures) were species- and stage-specific but that temperature effects only partly explained observed changes in the distribution and/or productivity of populations in the Northwest Pacific and Northeast Atlantic; changes in temperature may be necessary but not sufficient to induce population-level shifts. Prey availability during the late larval and early juvenile period was a common, density-dependent mechanism linked to fluctuations in populations but recruitment mechanisms were system-specific suggesting that generalizations of climate drivers across systems should be avoided. We identified gaps in knowledge regarding basic elements of the growth physiology of each life stage that will require additional field and laboratory study. Avenues of research are recommended that will aid the development of models that provide more robust, physiological-based projections of the population dynamics of these and other small pelagic fish. In our

  1. Gravity wave-driven fluctuations in OH nightglow from an extended, dissipative emission region

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schubert, G.; Walterscheid, R.L.; Hickey, M.P.

    1991-01-01

    The theory of gravity wave-driven fluctuations in the OH nightglow from an extended source region is generalized to account for effects of eddy kinematic viscosity v and eddy thermal diffusivity κ. In the nondiffusive case, the amplitudes and phases of vertically integrated normalized intensity (δI)/(bar I) and temperature (δT 1 )/(bar T 1 ) perturbations and vertically integrated Krassovsky's ratio (η) as functions of period are influenced by the upper limit of vertical integration of the extended source, especially at long periods when vertical wavelengths γ v are small. The effects, which include oscillations in (δT)/(bar I), (δT 1 )/(bar T 1 ), and (η), particularly at long periods, are due to constructive and destructive interference of nightglow signals from vertically separated levels of the OH emitting region that occur when γ v is comparable to or smaller than the thickness of the main emission region. The sensitivity of these ratios to the upper limit of vertical integration occurs because of the relatively small rate of decay of the intensity of OH emission with height above the peak emission level and the exponential growth with altitude of nondissipative gravity waves. Because eddy diffusion increases γ v , especially at long periods, and reduces wave growth with height compared with the case v = κ = 0, inclusion of eddy diffusion removes the sensitivity of (η) and the other ratios ot the maximum height of vertical integration. It is essential to account for both eddy diffusion and emission from the entire vertically extended emission region to correctly predict (η), (δI)/(bar I), and (δT 1 )/(bar T 1 ) at long gravity wave periods

  2. Climate driven range divergence among host species affects range-wide patterns of parasitism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard E. Feldman

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Species interactions like parasitism influence the outcome of climate-driven shifts in species ranges. For some host species, parasitism can only occur in that part of its range that overlaps with a second host species. Thus, predicting future parasitism may depend on how the ranges of the two hosts change in relation to each other. In this study, we tested whether the climate driven species range shift of Odocoileus virginianus (white-tailed deer accounts for predicted changes in parasitism of two other species from the family Cervidae, Alces alces (moose and Rangifer tarandus (caribou, in North America. We used MaxEnt models to predict the recent (2000 and future (2050 ranges (probabilities of occurrence of the cervids and a parasite Parelaphostrongylus tenuis (brainworm taking into account range shifts of the parasite’s intermediate gastropod hosts. Our models predicted that range overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and P. tenuis will decrease between 2000 and 2050, an outcome that reflects decreased overlap between A. alces/R. tarandus and O. virginianus and not the parasites, themselves. Geographically, our models predicted increasing potential occurrence of P. tenuis where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to decline, but minimal spatial overlap where A. alces/R. tarandus are likely to increase. Thus, parasitism may exacerbate climate-mediated southern contraction of A. alces and R. tarandus ranges but will have limited influence on northward range expansion. Our results suggest that the spatial dynamics of one host species may be the driving force behind future rates of parasitism for another host species.

  3. Emissions Trading Regimes and Incentives to Participate in International Climate Agreements

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buchner, B.; Carraro, C.

    2003-11-01

    This paper analyses whether different emissions trading regimes provide different incentives to participate in a cooperative climate agreement. Different incentive structures are discussed for those countries, namely the US, Russia and China, that are most important in the climate negotiation process. Our analysis confirms the conjecture that, by appropriately designing the emission trading regime, it is possible to enhance the incentives to participate in a climate agreement. Therefore, participation and optimal policy should be jointly analysed. Moreover, our results show that the US, Russia and China have different most preferred climate coalitions and therefore adopt conflicting negotiation strategies

  4. Induced absorption and stimulated emission in a driven two-level atom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mavroyannis, C.

    1992-01-01

    We have considered the induced processes that occur in a driven two-level atom, where a laser photon is absorbed and emitted by the ground and by the excited states of the atom, respectively. In the low-intensity limit of the laser field, the induced spectra arising when a laser photon is absorbed by the ground state of the atom consist of two peaks describing induced absorption and stimulated-emission processes, respectively, where the former prevails over the latter. Asymmetry of the spectral lines occurs at off-resonance and its extent depends on the detuning of the laser field. The physical. process where a laser photon is emitted by the excited state is the reverse of that arising from the absorption of a laser photon by the ground state of the atom. The former differs from the latter in that the emission of a laser photon by the excited state occurs in the low frequency regime and that the stimulated-emission process prevails over that of the induced absorption. In this case, amplification of ultrashort pulses is likely to occur without the need of population inversion between the optical transitions. The computed spectra are graphically presented and discussed. (author)

  5. Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje; Fagerli, Hilde; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

    2009-01-01

    In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO 2 , NO x , CH 4 , VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH 4 . While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO 2 , contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO x and SO 2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

  6. Climate variability and trends in biogenic emissions imprinted on satellite observations of formaldehyde from SCIAMACHY and OMI sounders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stavrakou, Trissevgeni; Müller, Jean-François; Bauwens, Maite; De Smedt, Isabelle; Van Roozendael, Michel

    2017-04-01

    Biogenic hydrocarbon emissions (BVOC) respond to temperature, photosynthetically active radiation, leaf area index, as well as to factors like leaf age, soil moisture, and ambient CO2 concentrations. Isoprene is the principal contributor to BVOC emissions and accounts for about half of the estimated total emissions on the global scale, whereas monoterpenes are also significant over boreal ecosystems. Due to their large emissions, their major role in the tropospheric ozone formation and contribution to secondary organic aerosols, BVOCs are highly relevant to both air quality and climate. Their oxidation in the atmosphere leads to the formation of formaldehyde (HCHO) at high yields. Satellite observations of HCHO abundances can therefore inform us on the spatial and temporal variability of the underlying sources and on their emission trends. The main objective of this study is to investigate the interannual variability and trends of observed HCHO columns during the growing season, when BVOC emissions are dominant, and interpret them in terms of BVOC emission flux variability. To this aim, we use the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by the ECMWF ERA-interim meteorology to calculate bottom-up BVOC fluxes on the global scale (Müller et al. 2008, Stavrakou et al. 2014) over 2003-2015, and satellite HCHO observations from SCIAMACHY (2003-2011) and OMI (2005-2015) instruments (De Smedt et al. 2008, 2015). We focus on mid- and high-latitude regions of the Northern Hemisphere in summertime, as well as tropical regions taking care to exclude biomass burning events which also lead to HCHO column enhancements. We find generally a very strong temporal correlation (>0.7) between the simulated BVOC emissions and the observed HCHO columns over temperate and boreal ecosystems. Positive BVOC emission trends associated to warming climate are found in almost all regions and are well corroborated by the observations. Furthermore, using OMI HCHO observations over 2005-2015 as constraints in

  7. Cross-site comparisons of concentration-discharge relationships reveal climate-driven chemostatic set points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Godsey, S.; Kirchner, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflow solute concentrations often vary predictably with flows, providing insight into processes controlling solute generation and export. Previous work by the authors showed that log-transformed concentration-discharge relationships of weathering-derived solutes in 59 headwater catchments had relatively low slopes, implying that these watersheds behaved almost like chemostats. That is, their rates of solute production and/or mobilization were nearly proportional to water fluxes, on both event and inter-annual time scales. Here we re-examine these findings using data from roughly 1000 catchments, ranging from ˜10 to >1,000,000 sq. km in drainage area, and spanning a wide range of lithologic and climatic settings.Concentration-discharge relationships among this much larger set of much larger catchments are broadly consistent with the chemostatic behavior described above. However, site-to-site variations in mean concentrations among these catchments are negatively correlated with long-term average precipitation and discharge, suggesting dilution of stream concentrations under long-term leaching of the critical zone. Thus, on event and inter-annual time scales, stream solute concentrations are chemostatically buffered by groundwater storage and fast chemical reactions (such as ion exchange), but on much longer time scales, the catchment's chemostatic "set point" is determined by climatically driven critical zone evolution. We present examples illustrating short-term and long-term controls on water quality consistent with variations in weather and climate, and discuss their implications.

  8. Performance Investigation of a Solar Heat Driven Adsorption Chiller under Two Different Climatic Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choudhury, Biplab; Chatterjee, Pradip Kumar; Habib, Khairul; Saha, Bidyut Baran

    2018-06-01

    The demand for cooling, especially in the developing economies, is rising at a fast rate. Fast-depleting sources of fossil fuel and environmental concerns necessitate looking for alternative cooling solutions. Solar heat driven adsorption based cooling cycles are environmentally friendly due to their use of natural refrigerants and the thermal compression process. In this paper, a performance simulation study of a basic two-bed solar adsorption chiller has been performed through a transient model for two different climatic locations in India. Effect of operating temperatures and cycle time on the chiller performance has been studied. It is observed that the solar hot water temperature obtained in the composite climate of Delhi (28.65°N, 77.25°E) can run the basic adsorption cooling cycle efficiently throughout the year. Whereas, the monsoon months of July and August in the warm and humid climate of Durgapur (23.48°N, 87.32°E) are unable to supply the required driving heat.

  9. EU Action against Climate Change. EU emissions trading. An open scheme promoting global innovation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    The European Union is committed to global efforts to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions from human activities that threaten to cause serious disruption to the world's climate. Building on the innovative mechanisms set up under the Kyoto Protocol to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - joint implementation, the clean development mechanism and international emissions trading - the EU has developed the largest company-level scheme for trading in emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), making it the world leader in this emerging market. The emissions trading scheme started in the 25 EU Member States on 1 January 2005

  10. Effectiveness of state climate and energy policies in reducing power-sector CO2 emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Geoff; Saikawa, Eri

    2017-12-01

    States have historically been the primary drivers of climate change policy in the US, particularly with regard to emissions from power plants. States have implemented policies designed either to directly curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants, or to encourage energy efficiency and renewable energy growth. With the federal government withdrawing from the global climate agreement, understanding which state-level policies have successfully mitigated power-plant emissions is urgent. Past research has assessed policy effectiveness using data for periods before the adoption of many policies. We assess 17 policies using the latest data on state-level power-sector CO2 emissions. We find that policies with mandatory compliance are reducing power-plant emissions, while voluntary policies are not. Electric decoupling, mandatory GHG registry/reporting and public benefit funds are associated with the largest reduction in emissions. Mandatory GHG registry/reporting and public benefit funds are also associated with a large reduction in emissions intensity.

  11. Surface area changes of Himalayan ponds as a proxy of hydrological climate-driven fluctuations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salerno, Franco; Thakuri, Sudeep; Guyennon, Nicolas; Viviano, Gaetano; Tartari, Gianni

    2016-04-01

    The meteorological measurements at high-elevations of the Himalayan range are scarce due to the harsh conditions of these environments which limit the suitable maintenance of weather stations. As a consequence, the meager knowledge on how the climate is changed in the last decades at Himalayan high-elevations sets a serious limit upon the interpretation of relationships between causes and recent observed effects on the cryosphere. Although the glaciers masses reduction in Himalaya is currently sufficiently well described, how changes in climate drivers (precipitation and temperature) have influenced the melting and shrinkage processes are less clear. Consequently, the uncertainty related to the recent past amplifies when future forecasts are done, both for climate and impacts. In this context, a substantial body of research has already demonstrated the high sensitivity of lakes and ponds to climate. Some climate-related signals are highly visible and easily measurable in lakes. For example, climate-driven fluctuations in lake surface area have been observed in many remote sites. On interior Tibetan Plateau the lake growth since the late 1990s is mainly attributed to increased regional precipitation and weakened evaporation. Differently, other authors attribute at the observed increases of lake surfaces at the enhanced glacier melting. In our opinion these divergences found in literature are due to the type of glacial lakes considered in the study and in particular their relationship with glaciers. In general, in Himalaya three types of glacial lakes can be distinguished: (i) lakes that are not directly connected with glaciers, but that may have a glacier located in their basin (unconnected glacial lakes); (ii) supraglacial lakes, which develop on the surface of the glacier downstream; or (iii) proglacial lakes, which are moraine-dammed lakes that are in contact with the glacier front. Some of these lakes store large quantities of water and are susceptible to GLOFs

  12. Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damon Matthews, H.; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Knutti, Reto; Allen, Myles R.

    2018-01-01

    The Environmental Research Letters focus issue on ‘Cumulative Emissions, Global Carbon Budgets and the Implications for Climate Mitigation Targets’ was launched in 2015 to highlight the emerging science of the climate response to cumulative emissions, and how this can inform efforts to decrease emissions fast enough to avoid dangerous climate impacts. The 22 research articles published represent a fantastic snapshot of the state-or-the-art in this field, covering both the science and policy aspects of cumulative emissions and carbon budget research. In this Review and Synthesis, we summarize the findings published in this focus issue, outline some suggestions for ongoing research needs, and present our assessment of the implications of this research for ongoing efforts to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement.

  13. Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Effects of Climate Change on Global Food Production from SRES Emissions and Socioeconomic Scenarios is an update to a major crop modeling study by the NASA Goddard...

  14. Dependency of climate change and carbon cycle on CO2 emission pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nohara, Daisuke; Yoshida, Yoshikatsu; Misumi, Kazuhiro; Ohba, Masamichi

    2013-01-01

    Previous research has indicated that the response of globally average temperature is approximately proportional to cumulative CO 2 emissions, yet evidence of the robustness of this relationship over a range of CO 2 emission pathways is lacking. To address this, we evaluate the dependency of climate and carbon cycle change on CO 2 emission pathways using a fully coupled climate–carbon cycle model. We design five idealized pathways (including an overshoot scenario for cumulative emissions), each of which levels off to final cumulative emissions of 2000 GtC. The cumulative emissions of the overshoot scenario reach 4000 GtC temporarily, subsequently reducing to 2000 GtC as a result of continuous negative emissions. Although we find that responses of climatic variables and the carbon cycle are largely independent of emission pathways, a much weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is projected in the overshoot scenario despite cessation of emissions. This weakened AMOC is enhanced by rapid warming in the Arctic region due to considerable temporary elevation of atmospheric CO 2 concentration and induces the decline of surface air temperature and decrease of precipitation over the northern Atlantic and Europe region. Moreover, the weakened AMOC reduces CO 2 uptake by the Atlantic and Arctic oceans. However, the weakened AMOC contributes little to the global carbon cycle. In conclusion, although climate variations have been found to be dependent on emission pathways, the global carbon cycle is relatively independent of these emission pathways, at least superficially. (letter)

  15. Delayed electron emission in strong-field driven tunnelling from a metallic nanotip in the multi-electron regime

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yanagisawa, Hirofumi; Schnepp, Sascha; Hafner, Christian; Hengsberger, Matthias; Kim, Dong Eon; Kling, Matthias F.; Landsman, Alexandra; Gallmann, Lukas; Osterwalder, Jürg

    2016-01-01

    Illuminating a nano-sized metallic tip with ultrashort laser pulses leads to the emission of electrons due to multiphoton excitations. As optical fields become stronger, tunnelling emission directly from the Fermi level becomes prevalent. This can generate coherent electron waves in vacuum leading to a variety of attosecond phenomena. Working at high emission currents where multi-electron effects are significant, we were able to characterize the transition from one regime to the other. Specifically, we found that the onset of laser-driven tunnelling emission is heralded by the appearance of a peculiar delayed emission channel. In this channel, the electrons emitted via laser-driven tunnelling emission are driven back into the metal, and some of the electrons reappear in the vacuum with some delay time after undergoing inelastic scattering and cascading processes inside the metal. Our understanding of these processes gives insights on attosecond tunnelling emission from solids and should prove useful in designing new types of pulsed electron sources. PMID:27786287

  16. Regional emission metrics for short-lived climate forcers from multiple models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Aamaas

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available For short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs, the impact of emissions depends on where and when the emissions take place. Comprehensive new calculations of various emission metrics for SLCFs are presented based on radiative forcing (RF values calculated in four different (chemical-transport or coupled chemistry–climate models. We distinguish between emissions during summer (May–October and winter (November–April for emissions in Europe and East Asia, as well as from the global shipping sector and global emissions. The species included in this study are aerosols and aerosol precursors (BC, OC, SO2, NH3, as well as ozone precursors (NOx, CO, VOCs, which also influence aerosols to a lesser degree. Emission metrics for global climate responses of these emissions, as well as for CH4, have been calculated using global warming potential (GWP and global temperature change potential (GTP, based on dedicated RF simulations by four global models. The emission metrics include indirect cloud effects of aerosols and the semi-direct forcing for BC. In addition to the standard emission metrics for pulse and sustained emissions, we have also calculated a new emission metric designed for an emission profile consisting of a ramping period of 15 years followed by sustained emissions, which is more appropriate for a gradual implementation of mitigation policies.For the aerosols, the emission metric values are larger in magnitude for emissions in Europe than East Asia and for summer than winter. A variation is also observed for the ozone precursors, with largest values for emissions in East Asia and winter for CO and in Europe and summer for VOCs. In general, the variations between the emission metrics derived from different models are larger than the variations between regions and seasons, but the regional and seasonal variations for the best estimate also hold for most of the models individually. Further, the estimated climate impact of an illustrative mitigation

  17. Direct nitrous oxide emissions in Mediterranean climate cropping systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cayuela, Maria L.; Aguilera, Eduardo; Sanz-Cobena, Alberto; Adams, Dean C.; Abalos Rodriguez, Diego; Barton, Louise; Ryals, Rebecca; Silver, Whendee L.; Alfaro, Marta A.; Pappa, Valentini A.; Bouwman, Lex; Lassaletta, Luis

    2017-01-01

    Many recent reviews and meta-analyses of N2O emissions do not include data from Mediterranean studies. In this paper we present a meta-analysis of the N2O emissions from Mediterranean cropping systems, and propose a more robust and reliable regional emission factor (EF) for

  18. Downscaling of South America present climate driven by 4-member HadCM3 runs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chou, Sin Chan; Marengo, Jose A.; Lyra, Andre A.; Sueiro, Gustavo; Pesquero, Jose F.; Alves, Lincoln M.; Chagas, Diego J.; Gomes, Jorge L.; Bustamante, Josiane F.; Tavares, Priscila [National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Sao Paulo (Brazil); Kay, Gillian; Betts, Richard [UK Met Office Hadley Centre, Devon (United Kingdom)

    2012-02-15

    The objective of this work is to evaluate climate simulations over South America using the regional Eta Model driven by four members of an ensemble of the UK Met Office Hadley Centre HadCM3 global model. The Eta Model has been modified with the purpose of performing long-term decadal integrations and has shown to reproduce ''present climate'' - the period 1961-1990 - reasonably well when forced by HadCM3. The global model lateral conditions with a resolution of 2.5 latitude x 3.75 longitude were provided at a frequency of 6 h. Each member of the global model ensemble has a different climate sensitivity, and the four members were selected to span the range of uncertainty encompassed by the ensemble. The Eta Model nested in the HadCM3 global model was configured with 40-km horizontal resolution and 38 layers in the vertical. No large-scale internal nudging was applied. Results are shown for austral summer and winter at present climate defined as 1961-90. The upper and low-level circulation patterns produced by the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 experiment set-up show good agreement with reanalysis data and the mean precipitation and temperature with CRU observation data. The spread in the downscaled mean precipitation and temperature is small when compared against model errors. On the other hand, the benefits in using an ensemble is clear in the improved representation of the seasonal cycle by the ensemble mean over any one realization. El Nino and La Nina years were identified in the HadCM3 member runs based on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center criterion of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 area. The frequency of the El Nino and La Nina events in the studied period is underestimated by HadCM3. The precipitation and temperature anomalies typical of these events are reproduced by most of the Eta-CPTEC/HadCM3 ensemble, although small displacements of the positions of the anomalies occur. This experiment configuration is the first step on the

  19. Metrics for aggregating the climate effects of different emissions: a unifying framework

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tol, R.S.J.; Berntsen, T.K.; O'Neill, B.C.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Shine, K.P.

    2012-01-01

    Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing equivalences among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the

  20. Interaction of the EU emissions Trading Directive with climate policy instrument in the Netherlands. Policy Brief

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sijm, J.P.M.

    2003-11-01

    This policy brief presents an overview of the implications of the proposed EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for some selected energy and climate policy instruments in the Netherlands. It summarises the results of research that has been conducted by the Energy research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) as part of the EU-funded project Interaction in EU Climate Policy

  1. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: Science overview and knowledge needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    William T. Sommers; Rachel A. Loehman; Colin C. Hardy

    2014-01-01

    Wildland fires have influenced the global carbon cycle for 420 million years of Earth history, interacting with climate to define vegetation characteristics and distributions, trigger abrupt ecosystem shifts, and move carbon among terrestrial and atmospheric pools. Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the dominant driver of ongoing climate change and the principal emissions...

  2. Vehicle emissions of short-lived and long-lived climate forcers: trends and tradeoffs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Edwards, Morgan R; Klemun, Magdalena M; Kim, Hyung Chul; Wallington, Timothy J; Winkler, Sandra L; Tamor, Michael A; Trancik, Jessika E

    2017-08-24

    Evaluating technology options to mitigate the climate impacts of road transportation can be challenging, particularly when they involve a tradeoff between long-lived emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide) and short-lived emissions (e.g., methane or black carbon). Here we present trends in short- and long-lived emissions for light- and heavy-duty transport globally and in the U.S., EU, and China over the period 2000-2030, and we discuss past and future changes to vehicle technologies to reduce these emissions. We model the tradeoffs between short- and long-lived emission reductions across a range of technology options, life cycle emission intensities, and equivalency metrics. While short-lived vehicle emissions have decreased globally over the past two decades, significant reductions in CO 2 will be required by mid-century to meet climate change mitigation targets. This is true regardless of the time horizon used to compare long- and short-lived emissions. The short-lived emission intensities of some low-CO 2 technologies are higher than others, and thus their suitability for meeting climate targets depends sensitively on the evaluation time horizon. Other technologies offer low intensities of both short-lived emissions and CO 2 .

  3. Modeling particle emission and power flow in pulsed-power driven, nonuniform transmission lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nichelle Bruner

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Pulsed-power driven x-ray radiographic systems are being developed to operate at higher power in an effort to increase source brightness and penetration power. Essential to the design of these systems is a thorough understanding of electron power flow in the transmission line that couples the pulsed-power driver to the load. In this paper, analytic theory and fully relativistic particle-in-cell simulations are used to model power flow in several experimental transmission-line geometries fielded on Sandia National Laboratories’ upgraded Radiographic Integrated Test Stand [IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 28, 1653 (2000ITPSBD0093-381310.1109/27.901250]. Good agreement with measured electrical currents is demonstrated on a shot-by-shot basis for simulations which include detailed models accounting for space-charge-limited electron emission, surface heating, and stimulated particle emission. Resonant cavity modes related to the transmission-line impedance transitions are also shown to be excited by electron power flow. These modes can drive oscillations in the output power of the system, degrading radiographic resolution.

  4. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

    2010-06-15

    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  5. Field Performance of Inverter-Driven Heat Pumps in Cold Climates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williamson, James [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States); Aldrich, Robb [Consortium of Advanced Residential Buildings, Norwalk, CT (United States)

    2015-08-19

    Traditionally, air-source heat pumps (ASHPs) have been used more often in warmer climates; however, some new ASHPs are gaining ground in colder areas. These systems operate at subzero (Fahrenheit) temperatures and many do not include backup electric resistance elements. There are still uncertainties, however, about capacity and efficiency in cold weather. Also, questions such as “how cold is too cold?” do not have clear answers. These uncertainties could lead to skepticism among homeowners; poor energy savings estimates; suboptimal system selection by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning contractors; and inconsistent energy modeling. In an effort to better understand and characterize the heating performance of these units in cold climates, the U.S. Department of Energy Building America team, Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB), monitored seven inverter-driven, ductless ASHPs across the Northeast. Operating data were collected for three Mitsubishi FE18 units, three Mitsubishi FE12 units, and one Fujitsu 15RLS2 unit. The intent of this research was to assess heat output, electricity consumption, and coefficients of performance (COPs) at various temperatures and load conditions. This assessment was accomplished with long- and short-term tests that measured power consumption; supply, return, and outdoor air temperatures; and airflow through the indoor fan coil.

  6. Climate-change-driven deterioration of water quality in a mineralized watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todd, Andrew S; Manning, Andrew H; Verplanck, Philip L; Crouch, Caitlin; McKnight, Diane M; Dunham, Ryan

    2012-09-04

    A unique 30-year streamwater chemistry data set from a mineralized alpine watershed with naturally acidic, metal-rich water displays dissolved concentrations of Zn and other metals of ecological concern increasing by 100-400% (400-2000 μg/L) during low-flow months, when metal concentrations are highest. SO(4) and other major ions show similar increases. A lack of natural or anthropogenic land disturbances in the watershed during the study period suggests that climate change is the underlying cause. Local mean annual and mean summer air temperatures have increased at a rate of 0.2-1.2 °C/decade since the 1980s. Other climatic and hydrologic indices, including stream discharge during low-flow months, do not display statistically significant trends. Consideration of potential specific causal mechanisms driven by rising temperatures suggests that melting of permafrost and falling water tables (from decreased recharge) are probable explanations for the increasing concentrations. The prospect of future widespread increases in dissolved solutes from mineralized watersheds is concerning given likely negative impacts on downstream ecosystems and water resources, and complications created for the establishment of attainable remediation objectives at mine sites.

  7. Global climate change through CO2 emissions - fact or fiction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Metzner, H.

    1994-01-01

    'Horror scenarios' of an imminent climate disaster have for long been dominating the media and giving rise to insecurity and fear. The present article deals critically with these visions and makes a realistic assessment of the present climate situation based on plain scientific facts. (orig.) [de

  8. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China: An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Hübler, Michael; Löschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian

    2014-01-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi‐region, multi‐sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy‐ induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business‐as‐usual (BAU) in the same yea...

  9. Memory effect driven emissions of persistent organic pollutants from industrial thermal processes, their implications and management: a review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trivedi, Jitendra; Majumdar, Deepanjan

    2013-04-15

    Memory effect is delayed emission of certain persistent organic pollutants (POPs). Many of the POP compounds viz. polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDD) and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDF) get trapped in the particulate phase deposited in the flue transfer lines and air pollution control systems (equivalent to storage in the memory of a system) and released subsequently. Memory effect driven emission is a combination of real time emission and emission of stored compounds and so is not a true measure of actual real time emission. Memory effect is now realized to have existed for a long time but was not identified and understood until recently. Memory effect has several serious implications e.g. it wrongly depicts emission patterns of POPs; it makes compliance to stipulated emission standards difficult; it could lead to wrong calculations of emission factors and emission inventory estimates of a plant and leads to misinterpretation of efficacy of processes and air pollution control systems. Further, new PCDD/Fs may be formed in the trapped particulate phase via de novo synthesis and the new compounds may be emitted, thereby increasing total PCDD/F emissions, apart from altering the homologue pattern of PCDD/Fs in emissions. Memory effect could be minimized by judicious operational and management (O&M) procedures like optimizing combustion, minimizing unnecessary halts in operations, periodical cleaning of flue transfer lines, application of inhibitors etc. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Climate-driven disparities among ecological interactions threaten kelp forest persistence.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Provost, Euan J; Kelaher, Brendan P; Dworjanyn, Symon A; Russell, Bayden D; Connell, Sean D; Ghedini, Giulia; Gillanders, Bronwyn M; Figueira, WillIAM; Coleman, Melinda A

    2017-01-01

    The combination of ocean warming and acidification brings an uncertain future to kelp forests that occupy the warmest parts of their range. These forests are not only subject to the direct negative effects of ocean climate change, but also to a combination of unknown indirect effects associated with changing ecological landscapes. Here, we used mesocosm experiments to test the direct effects of ocean warming and acidification on kelp biomass and photosynthetic health, as well as climate-driven disparities in indirect effects involving key consumers (urchins and rock lobsters) and competitors (algal turf). Elevated water temperature directly reduced kelp biomass, while their turf-forming competitors expanded in response to ocean acidification and declining kelp canopy. Elevated temperatures also increased growth of urchins and, concurrently, the rate at which they thinned kelp canopy. Rock lobsters, which are renowned for keeping urchin populations in check, indirectly intensified negative pressures on kelp by reducing their consumption of urchins in response to elevated temperature. Overall, these results suggest that kelp forests situated towards the low-latitude margins of their distribution will need to adapt to ocean warming in order to persist in the future. What is less certain is how such adaptation in kelps can occur in the face of intensifying consumptive (via ocean warming) and competitive (via ocean acidification) pressures that affect key ecological interactions associated with their persistence. If such indirect effects counter adaptation to changing climate, they may erode the stability of kelp forests and increase the probability of regime shifts from complex habitat-forming species to more simple habitats dominated by algal turfs. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Solar ultraviolet radiation and ozone depletion-driven climate change: effects on terrestrial ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bornman, J F; Barnes, P W; Robinson, S A; Ballaré, C L; Flint, S D; Caldwell, M M

    2015-01-01

    In this assessment we summarise advances in our knowledge of how UV-B radiation (280-315 nm), together with other climate change factors, influence terrestrial organisms and ecosystems. We identify key uncertainties and knowledge gaps that limit our ability to fully evaluate the interactive effects of ozone depletion and climate change on these systems. We also evaluate the biological consequences of the way in which stratospheric ozone depletion has contributed to climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Since the last assessment, several new findings or insights have emerged or been strengthened. These include: (1) the increasing recognition that UV-B radiation has specific regulatory roles in plant growth and development that in turn can have beneficial consequences for plant productivity via effects on plant hardiness, enhanced plant resistance to herbivores and pathogens, and improved quality of agricultural products with subsequent implications for food security; (2) UV-B radiation together with UV-A (315-400 nm) and visible (400-700 nm) radiation are significant drivers of decomposition of plant litter in globally important arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as grasslands and deserts. This occurs through the process of photodegradation, which has implications for nutrient cycling and carbon storage, although considerable uncertainty exists in quantifying its regional and global biogeochemical significance; (3) UV radiation can contribute to climate change via its stimulation of volatile organic compounds from plants, plant litter and soils, although the magnitude, rates and spatial patterns of these emissions remain highly uncertain at present. UV-induced release of carbon from plant litter and soils may also contribute to global warming; and (4) depletion of ozone in the Southern Hemisphere modifies climate directly via effects on seasonal weather patterns (precipitation and wind) and these in turn have been linked to changes in the growth of plants

  12. Climate-driven trends in the occurrence of major floods across North America and Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Whitfield, Paul H.; Burn, Donald H.; Hannaford, Jamie; Renard, Benjamin; Stahl, Kerstin; Fleig, Anne K.; Madsen, Henrik; Mediero, Luis; Korhonen, Johanna; Murphy, Conor; Crochet, Philippe; Wilson, Donna

    2016-04-01

    Every year river floods cause enormous damage around the world. Recent major floods in North America and Europe, for example, have received much press, with some concluding that these floods are more frequent in recent years as a result of anthropogenic warming. There has been considerable scientific effort invested in establishing whether observed flood records show evidence of trends or variability in flood frequency, and to determine whether these patterns can be linked to climatic changes. However, the river catchments used in many published studies are influenced by direct human alteration such as reservoir regulation and urbanisation, which can confound the interpretation of climate-driven variability. Furthermore, a majority of previous studies have analysed changes in low magnitude floods, such as the annual peak flow, at a national scale. Few studies are known that have analysed changes in large floods (greater than 25-year floods) on a continental scale. To fill this research gap, we present a study analysing flood flows from reference hydrologic networks (RHNs) or RHN-like gauges across a large study domain embracing North America and much of Europe. RHNs comprise gauging stations with minimally disturbed catchment conditions, which have a near-natural flow regime and provide good quality data; RHN analyses thus allow hydro-climatic variability to be distinguished from direct artificial disturbances or data inhomogeneities. One of the key innovations in this study is the definition of an RHN-like network consisting of 1204 catchments on a continental scale. The network incorporates existing, well-established RHNs in Canada, the US, the UK, Ireland and Norway, alongside RHN-like catchments from Europe (France, Switzerland, Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Spain), which have been incorporated in the network following a major effort to ensure RHN-like status of candidate gauges through consultation with local experts. As the aim of the study is to examine

  13. Modelling marine community responses to climate-driven species redistribution to guide monitoring and adaptive ecosystem-based management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marzloff, Martin Pierre; Melbourne-Thomas, Jessica; Hamon, Katell G.; Hoshino, Eriko; Jennings, Sarah; Putten, Van Ingrid E.; Pecl, Gretta T.

    2016-01-01

    As a consequence of global climate-driven changes, marine ecosystems are experiencing polewards redistributions of species – or range shifts – across taxa and throughout latitudes worldwide. Research on these range shifts largely focuses on understanding and predicting changes in the distribution of

  14. On the efficiency gains of emissions trading when climate deals are non-cooperative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Godal, Odd; Holtsmark, Bjart

    2011-07-15

    This paper studies, in a numerical environment, climate treaties with emissions trading when national quotas result from strategic individual choice. We find that the larger the number of parties to the deal, the smaller are the emissions reductions and the lower the welfare. If insisting on stability with respect to participation, climate treaties involve few parties and yield practically no emissions reductions. While these results contrast with some optimistic studies, our numerical example conforms established results if modelling the problem in the more traditional sense. (Author)

  15. Improved attribution of climate forcing to emissions by pollutant and sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D. T.

    2009-12-01

    Evaluating multi-component climate change mitigation strategies requires knowledge of the diverse direct and indirect effects of emissions. Methane, ozone and aerosols are linked through atmospheric chemistry so that emissions of a single pollutant can affect several species. I will show new calculations of atmospheric composition changes, radiative forcing, and the global warming potential (GWP) for increased emissions of tropospheric ozone and aerosol precursors in a coupled composition-climate model. The results demonstrate that gas-aerosol interactions substantially alter the relative importance of the various emissions, suggesting revisions to the GWPs used in international carbon trading. Additionally, I will present results showing how the net climate impact of particular activities depends strongly upon non-CO2 forcing agents for some sectors. These results will be highlighted by discussing the interplay between air quality emissions controls and climate for the case of emissions from coal-fired power plants. The changing balance between CO2 and air quality pollutants from coal plants may have contributed to the 20th century spatial and temporal patterns of climate change, and is likely to continue to do so as more and more plants are constructed in Asia.

  16. Transient simulations of historical climate change including interactive carbon emissions from land-use change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matveev, A.; Matthews, H. D.

    2009-04-01

    Carbon fluxes from land conversion are among the most uncertain variables in our understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle, which limits our ability to estimate both the total human contribution to current climate forcing and the net effect of terrestrial biosphere changes on atmospheric CO2 increases. The current generation of coupled climate-carbon models have made significant progress in simulating the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but do not typically include land-use change as a dynamic component of the simulation. In this work we have incorporated a book-keeping land-use carbon accounting model into the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), and intermediate-complexity coupled climate-carbon model. The terrestrial component of the UVic ESCM allows an aerial competition of five plant functional types (PFTs) in response to climatic conditions and area availability, and tracks the associated changes in affected carbon pools. In order to model CO2 emissions from land conversion in the terrestrial component of the model, we calculate the allocation of carbon to short and long-lived wood products following specified land-cover change, and use varying decay timescales to estimate CO2 emissions. We use recently available spatial datasets of both crop and pasture distributions to drive a series of transient simulations and estimate the net contribution of human land-use change to historical carbon emissions and climate change.

  17. Integration of Linear Dynamic Emission and Climate Models with Air Traffic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sridhar, Banavar; Ng, Hok K.; Chen, Neil Y.

    2012-01-01

    Future air traffic management systems are required to balance the conflicting objectives of maximizing safety and efficiency of traffic flows while minimizing the climate impact of aviation emissions and contrails. Integrating emission and climate models together with air traffic simulations improve the understanding of the complex interaction between the physical climate system, carbon and other greenhouse gas emissions and aviation activity. This paper integrates a national-level air traffic simulation and optimization capability with simple climate models and carbon cycle models, and climate metrics to assess the impact of aviation on climate. The capability can be used to make trade-offs between extra fuel cost and reduction in global surface temperature change. The parameters in the simulation can be used to evaluate the effect of various uncertainties in emission models and contrails and the impact of different decision horizons. Alternatively, the optimization results from the simulation can be used as inputs to other tools that monetize global climate impacts like the FAA s Aviation Environmental Portfolio Management Tool for Impacts.

  18. Fire Regime and Ecosystem Effects of Climate-driven Changes in Rocky Mountains Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerling, A. L.; Das, T.; Lubetkin, K.; Romme, W.; Ryan, M. G.; Smithwick, E. A.; Turner, M.

    2009-12-01

    Western US Forest managers face more wildfires than ever before, and it is increasingly imperative to anticipate the consequences of this trend. Large fires in the northern Rocky Mountains have increased in association with warmer temperatures, earlier snowmelt, and longer fire seasons (1), and this trend is likely to continue with global warming (2). Increased wildfire occurrence is already a concern shared by managers from many federal land-management agencies (3). However, new analyses for the western US suggest that future climate could diverge even more rapidly from past climate than previously suggested. Current model projections suggest end-of-century hydroclimatic conditions like those of 1988 (the year of the well-known Yellowstone Fires) may represent close to the average year rather than an extreme year. The consequences of a shift of this magnitude for the fire regime, post-fire succession and carbon (C) balance of western forest ecosystems are well beyond what scientists have explored to date, and may fundamentally change the potential of western forests to sequester atmospheric C. We link hydroclimatic extremes (spring and summer temperature and cumulative water-year moisture deficit) to extreme fire years in northern Rockies forests, using large forest fire histories and 1/8-degree gridded historical hydrologic simulations (1950 - 2005) (4) forced with historical gridded temperature and precipitation (5). The frequency of extremes in hydroclimate associated with historic severe fire years in the northern Rocky Mountains is compared to those projected under a range of climate change projections, using global climate model runs for the A2 and B1 emissions pathways for three global climate models (NCAR PCM1, GFDL CM2.1, CNRM CM3). Coarse-scale climatic variables are downscaled to a 1/8 degree grid and used to force hydrologic simulations (6, 7). We will present preliminary results using these hydrologic simulations to model spatially explicit annual

  19. Climate change impacts on agriculture in 2050 under a range of plausible socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wiebe, Keith; Islam, Shahnila; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard; Robinson, Sherman; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Biewald, Anne; Bodirsky, Benjamin; Müller, Christoph; Popp, Alexander; Sands, Ronald; Tabeau, Andrzej; Van Meijl, Hans; Van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique; Kavallari, Aikaterini; Willenbockel, Dirk

    2015-01-01

    Previous studies have combined climate, crop and economic models to examine the impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security, but results have varied widely due to differences in models, scenarios and input data. Recent work has examined (and narrowed) these differences through systematic model intercomparison using a high-emissions pathway to highlight the differences. This paper extends that analysis to explore a range of plausible socioeconomic scenarios and emission pathways. Results from multiple climate and economic models are combined to examine the global and regional impacts of climate change on agricultural yields, area, production, consumption, prices and trade for coarse grains, rice, wheat, oilseeds and sugar crops to 2050. We find that climate impacts on global average yields, area, production and consumption are similar across shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 1, 2 and 3, as we implement them based on population, income and productivity drivers), except when changes in trade policies are included. Impacts on trade and prices are higher for SSP 3 than SSP 2, and higher for SSP 2 than for SSP 1. Climate impacts for all variables are similar across low to moderate emissions pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 6.0), but increase for a higher emissions pathway (RCP 8.5). It is important to note that these global averages may hide regional variations. Projected reductions in agricultural yields due to climate change by 2050 are larger for some crops than those estimated for the past half century, but smaller than projected increases to 2050 due to rising demand and intrinsic productivity growth. Results illustrate the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic and emissions pathways. Yield impacts increase at high emissions levels and vary with changes in population, income and technology, but are reduced in all cases by endogenous changes in prices and other variables. (paper)

  20. Wildland fire emissions, carbon and climate: Characterizing wildland fuels

    Science.gov (United States)

    David R. Weise; Clinton S. Wright

    2013-01-01

    Smoke from biomass fires makes up a substantial portion of global greenhouse gas, aerosol, and black carbon (GHG/A/BC) emissions. Understanding how fuel characteristics and conditions affect fire occurrence and extent, combustion dynamics, and fuel consumption is critical for making accurate, reliable estimates of emissions production at local, regional, national, and...

  1. Control of spontaneous emission from a microwave-field-driven four-level atom in an anisotropic photonic crystal

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Duo, E-mail: zhangduo10@gmail.com [Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics and School of Physics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China); School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Wuhan Polytechnic University, Wuhan 430023 (China); Li, Jiahua, E-mail: huajia_li@163.com [Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics and School of Physics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China); Ding, Chunling; Yang, Xiaoxue [Wuhan National Laboratory for Optoelectronics and School of Physics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430074 (China)

    2012-05-21

    The spontaneous emission properties of a microwave-field-driven four-level atom embedded in anisotropic double-band photonic crystals (PCs) are investigated. We discuss the influences of the band-edge positions, Rabi frequency and detuning of the microwave field on the emission spectrum. It is found that several interesting features such as spectral-line enhancement, spectral-line suppression, spectral-line overlap, and multi-peak structures can be observed in the spectra. The proposed scheme can be achieved by use of a microwave-coupled field into hyperfine levels in rubidium atom confined in a photonic crystal. These theoretical investigations may provide more degrees of freedom to manipulate the atomic spontaneous emission. -- Highlights: ► Spontaneous emission properties of an atom embedded in PCs are investigated. ► Spectral-line enhancement, suppression and overlapping are observed. ► The results provide more degrees of freedom to control atomic spontaneous emission.

  2. Control of spontaneous emission from a microwave-field-driven four-level atom in an anisotropic photonic crystal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Duo; Li, Jiahua; Ding, Chunling; Yang, Xiaoxue

    2012-01-01

    The spontaneous emission properties of a microwave-field-driven four-level atom embedded in anisotropic double-band photonic crystals (PCs) are investigated. We discuss the influences of the band-edge positions, Rabi frequency and detuning of the microwave field on the emission spectrum. It is found that several interesting features such as spectral-line enhancement, spectral-line suppression, spectral-line overlap, and multi-peak structures can be observed in the spectra. The proposed scheme can be achieved by use of a microwave-coupled field into hyperfine levels in rubidium atom confined in a photonic crystal. These theoretical investigations may provide more degrees of freedom to manipulate the atomic spontaneous emission. -- Highlights: ► Spontaneous emission properties of an atom embedded in PCs are investigated. ► Spectral-line enhancement, suppression and overlapping are observed. ► The results provide more degrees of freedom to control atomic spontaneous emission.

  3. 6.1 Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2004-01-01

    In Austria, greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) have increased by about 10 % between 1990 and 2001. This means that already in 2001 the emissions reached the level projected with current measures for 2010. Thus Austria is far from complying with the 13 % reduction required under the Kyoto Protocol, meaning that GHG emissions will have to be reduce annually by 1.4 million tons of CO 2 -equivalents to fulfill its protocol obligation. It is shown that 2001 GHG emissions had increased by 9.6 % since the base year 1990, the main reason for this increase is the growing use of fossil fuels and the resulting increase in CO 2 emissions. The highest growth rates can be observed in the transport sector by almost half (+ 49 %). Basically, greenhouse gas emission trends depend on a number of factors, about two thirds of them are caused by energy production, so the most important parameters affecting GHG are the trends of energy consumption, the energy mix and the following factors: population growth, economic growth, outdoor temperature and the resulting heating requirements, improvement of energy efficiency, the proportion of renewable energy sources such as electricity generation in hydroelectric power stations (which influences the need for supplementary power production in thermal power plants), the mix of fossil fuels, for example in caloric power plants (natural gas combustion produces about 40 % less CO 2 per energy unit than coal combustion), the structure and price effects of energy market liberalization, which influence the use of various fuels in electricity production and the import of electricity, world market prices for energy, structural changes in the economy and in the behavior of consumers. Changes in important driving forces and in GHG emissions, sector emissions trends and Austrian, European and global emissions projections are provided. (nevyjel)

  4. The energy-climate challenge: Recent trends in CO2 emissions from fuel combustion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Quadrelli, Roberta; Peterson, Sierra

    2007-01-01

    Fossil fuel combustion is the single largest human influence on climate, accounting for 80% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. This paper presents trends in world carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from fossil fuel combustion worldwide, based on the estimates of the International Energy Agency (IEA) [IEA, 2006a. CO 2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion 1971-2004. International Energy Agency, Paris, France]. Analyzing the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper considers regions, types of fuel, sectors, and socio-economic indicators. The paper then examines the growing body of climate change mitigation policies and measures, both multinational and federal. Policies discussed include the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme, and the potential measures to be implemented in 2012 and beyond. CO 2 emissions of recent years have grown at the highest rates ever recorded, an observed trend incompatible with stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and avoiding long-term climate change. Within this aggregate upward trend, a comparison of emissions sources proves dynamic: while industrialized countries have so far dominated historical emissions, rapid growth in energy demand of developing economies, led by China, may soon spur their absolute emissions beyond those of industrialized countries. To provide context for the drivers of CO 2 emissions, the paper examines fuel sources, from coal to biofuels, and fuel use in the production of heat and electricity, in transport, in industrial production and in households. The sectoral analysis illustrates the primacy, in terms of emissions growth and absolute emissions, of two sectors: electricity and heat generation, and transport. A discussion of several socio-economic emissions drivers complements the paper's analysis of mitigation mechanisms. As illustrated, emissions per capita and emissions per unit of economic production, as measured in gross domestic product (GDP), vary widely between

  5. An alternative to the global warming potential for comparing climate impacts of emissions of greenhouse gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Stuber, Nicola

    2003-01-01

    The global warming potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climate impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GQP has been subject at many criticism because of its formulation but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of this design and application and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here a new metric which we call the Global Temperature Change Potential (GTP) is proposed which is based on a simple analytical climate model that represents the temperature change as a given time due to either a pulse emission of a gas or a sustained emission change relative to a similar emission change of carbon dioxide. The GTP for a pulse emission illustrates that the GWP does not represent well the relative temperature response; however, the GWP is shown to be very close to the GTP for a sustained emission change for time horizons of 100 years or more. The new metric retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions. The GTP for a sustained emission appears to be robust to a number of uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP. (Author)

  6. Relevance of emissions timing in biofuel greenhouse gases and climate impacts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwietzke, Stefan; Griffin, W Michael; Matthews, H Scott

    2011-10-01

    Employing life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as a key performance metric in energy and environmental policy may underestimate actual climate change impacts. Emissions released early in the life cycle cause greater cumulative radiative forcing (CRF) over the next decades than later emissions. Some indicate that ignoring emissions timing in traditional biofuel GHG accounting overestimates the effectiveness of policies supporting corn ethanol by 10-90% due to early land use change (LUC) induced GHGs. We use an IPCC climate model to (1) estimate absolute CRF from U.S. corn ethanol and (2) quantify an emissions timing factor (ETF), which is masked in the traditional GHG accounting. In contrast to earlier analyses, ETF is only 2% (5%) over 100 (50) years of impacts. Emissions uncertainty itself (LUC, fuel production period) is 1-2 orders of magnitude higher, which dwarfs the timing effect. From a GHG accounting perspective, emissions timing adds little to our understanding of the climate impacts of biofuels. However, policy makers should recognize that ETF could significantly decrease corn ethanol's probability of meeting the 20% GHG reduction target in the 2007 Energy Independence and Security Act. The added uncertainty of potentially employing more complex emissions metrics is yet to be quantified.

  7. On the data-driven inference of modulatory networks in climate science: an application to West African rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    González, D. L., II; Angus, M. P.; Tetteh, I. K.; Bello, G. A.; Padmanabhan, K.; Pendse, S. V.; Srinivas, S.; Yu, J.; Semazzi, F.; Kumar, V.; Samatova, N. F.

    2015-01-01

    Decades of hypothesis-driven and/or first-principles research have been applied towards the discovery and explanation of the mechanisms that drive climate phenomena, such as western African Sahel summer rainfall~variability. Although connections between various climate factors have been theorized, not all of the key relationships are fully understood. We propose a data-driven approach to identify candidate players in this climate system, which can help explain underlying mechanisms and/or even suggest new relationships, to facilitate building a more comprehensive and predictive model of the modulatory relationships influencing a climate phenomenon of interest. We applied coupled heterogeneous association rule mining (CHARM), Lasso multivariate regression, and dynamic Bayesian networks to find relationships within a complex system, and explored means with which to obtain a consensus result from the application of such varied methodologies. Using this fusion of approaches, we identified relationships among climate factors that modulate Sahel rainfall. These relationships fall into two categories: well-known associations from prior climate knowledge, such as the relationship with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and putative links, such as North Atlantic Oscillation, that invite further research.

  8. The Net Climate Impact of Coal-Fired Power Plant Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, D.; Faluvegi, G.

    2010-01-01

    Coal-fired power plants influence climate via both the emission of long-lived carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived ozone and aerosol precursors. Using a climate model, we perform the first study of the spatial and temporal pattern of radiative forcing specifically for coal plant emissions. Without substantial pollution controls, we find that near-term net global mean climate forcing is negative due to the well-known aerosol masking of the effects of CO2. Imposition of pollution controls on sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxides leads to a rapid realization of the full positive forcing from CO2, however. Long-term global mean forcing from stable (constant) emissions is positive regardless of pollution controls. Emissions from coal-fired power plants until 1970, including roughly 1/3 of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions, likely contributed little net global mean climate forcing during that period though they may have induce weak Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude (NHml) cooling. After that time many areas imposed pollution controls or switched to low sulfur coal. Hence forcing due to emissions from 1970 to 2000 and CO2 emitted previously was strongly positive and contributed to rapid global and especially NHml warming. Most recently, new construction in China and India has increased rapidly with minimal application of pollution controls. Continuation of this trend would add negative near-term global mean climate forcing but severely degrade air quality. Conversely, following the Western and Japanese pattern of imposing air quality pollution controls at a later time could accelerate future warming rates, especially at NHmls. More broadly, our results indicate that due to spatial and temporal inhomogeneities in forcing, climate impacts of multi-pollutant emissions can vary strongly from region to region and can include substantial effects on maximum rate-of-change, neither of which are captured by commonly used global metrics. The method we introduce here to estimate

  9. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Liebergesell

    Full Text Available Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis and the functional richness index (FRic. Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning.

  10. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devisscher, Tahia; Anderson, Liana O; Aragão, Luiz E O C; Galván, Luis; Malhi, Yadvinder

    2016-01-01

    Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can inform fire and land

  11. Increased Wildfire Risk Driven by Climate and Development Interactions in the Bolivian Chiquitania, Southern Amazonia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tahia Devisscher

    Full Text Available Wildfires are becoming increasingly dominant in tropical landscapes due to reinforcing feedbacks between land cover change and more severe dry conditions. This study focused on the Bolivian Chiquitania, a region located at the southern edge of Amazonia. The extensive, unique and well-conserved tropical dry forest in this region is susceptible to wildfires due to a marked seasonality. We used a novel approach to assess fire risk at the regional level driven by different development trajectories interacting with changing climatic conditions. Possible future risk scenarios were simulated using maximum entropy modelling with presence-only data, combining land cover, anthropogenic and climatic variables. We found that important determinants of fire risk in the region are distance to roads, recent deforestation and density of human settlements. Severely dry conditions alone increased the area of high fire risk by 69%, affecting all categories of land use and land cover. Interactions between extreme dry conditions and rapid frontier expansion further increased fire risk, resulting in potential biomass loss of 2.44±0.8 Tg in high risk area, about 1.8 times higher than the estimates for the 2010 drought. These interactions showed particularly high fire risk in land used for 'extensive cattle ranching', 'agro-silvopastoral use' and 'intensive cattle ranching and agriculture'. These findings have serious implications for subsistence activities and the economy in the Chiquitania, which greatly depend on the forestry, agriculture and livestock sectors. Results are particularly concerning if considering the current development policies promoting frontier expansion. Departmental protected areas inhibited wildfires when strategically established in areas of high risk, even under drought conditions. However, further research is needed to assess their effectiveness accounting for more specific contextual factors. This novel and simple modelling approach can

  12. Effects of crop management, soil type, and climate on N2O emissions from Austrian Soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zechmeister-Boltenstern, Sophie; Sigmund, Elisabeth; Kasper, Martina; Kitzler, Barbara; Haas, Edwin; Wandl, Michael; Strauss, Peter; Poetzelsberger, Elisabeth; Dersch, Georg; Winiwarter, Wilfried; Amon, Barbara

    2015-04-01

    Within the project FarmClim ("Farming for a better climate") we assessed recent N2O emissions from two selected regions in Austria. Our aim was to deepen the understanding of Austrian N2O fluxes regarding region specific properties. Currently, N2O emissions are estimated with the IPCC default emission factor which only considers the amount of N-input as an influencing factor for N2O emissions. We evaluated the IPCC default emission factor for its validity under spatially distinct environmental conditions. For this two regions for modeling with LandscapeDNDC have been identified in this project. The benefit of using LandscapeDNDC is the detailed illustration of microbial processes in the soil. Required input data to run the model included daily climate data, vegetation properties, soil characteristics and land management. The analysis of present agricultural practices was basis for assessing the hot spots and hot moments of nitrogen emissions on a regional scale. During our work with LandscapeDNDC we were able to adapt specific model algorithms to Austrian agricultural conditions. The model revealed a strong dependency of N2O emissions on soil type. We could estimate how strongly soil texture affects N2O emissions. Based on detailed soil maps with high spatial resolution we calculated region specific contribution to N2O emissions. Accordingly we differentiated regions with deviating gas fluxes compared to the predictions by the IPCC inventory methodology. Taking region specific management practices into account (tillage, irrigation, residuals) calculation of crop rotation (fallow, catch crop, winter wheat, barley, winter barley, sugar beet, corn, potato, onion and rapeseed) resulted in N2O emissions differing by a factor of 30 depending on preceding crop and climate. A maximum of 2% of N fertilizer input was emitted as N2O. Residual N in the soil was a major factor stimulating N2O emissions. Interannual variability was affected by varying N-deposition even in case

  13. Trading off Aircraft Fuel Burn and NO x Emissions for Optimal Climate Policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Freeman, Sarah; Lee, David S; Lim, Ling L; Skowron, Agnieszka; De León, Ruben Rodriguez

    2018-03-06

    Aviation emits pollutants that affect the climate, including CO 2 and NO x , NO x indirectly so, through the formation of tropospheric ozone and reduction of ambient methane. To improve the fuel performance of engines, combustor temperatures and pressures often increase, increasing NO x emissions. Conversely, combustor modifications to reduce NO x may increase CO 2 . Hence, a technology trade-off exists, which also translates to a trade-off between short-lived climate forcers and a long-lived greenhouse gas, CO 2 . Moreover, the NO x -O 3 -CH 4 system responds in a nonlinear manner, according to both aviation emissions and background NO x . A simple climate model was modified to incorporate nonlinearities parametrized from a complex chemistry model. Case studies showed that for a scenario of a 20% reduction in NO x emissions the consequential CO 2 penalty of 2% actually increased the total radiative forcing (RF). For a 2% fuel penalty, NO x emissions needed to be reduced by >43% to realize an overall benefit. Conversely, to ensure that the fuel penalty for a 20% NO x emission reduction did not increase overall forcing, a 0.5% increase in CO 2 was found to be the "break even" point. The time scales of the climate effects of NO x and CO 2 are quite different, necessitating careful analysis of proposed emissions trade-offs.

  14. Doubled volatile organic compound emissions from subarctic tundra under simulated climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faubert, Patrick; Tiiva, Päivi; Rinnan, Asmund; Michelsen, Anders; Holopainen, Jarmo K; Rinnan, Riikka

    2010-07-01

    *Biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions from arctic ecosystems are important in view of their role in global atmospheric chemistry and unknown feedbacks to global warming. These cold ecosystems are hotspots of climate warming, which will be more severe here than averaged over the globe. We assess the effects of climatic warming on non-methane BVOC emissions from a subarctic heath. *We performed ecosystem-based chamber measurements and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analyses of the BVOCs collected on adsorbent over two growing seasons at a wet subarctic tundra heath hosting a long-term warming and mountain birch (Betula pubescens ssp. czerepanovii) litter addition experiment. *The relatively low emissions of monoterpenes and sesquiterpenes were doubled in response to an air temperature increment of only 1.9-2.5 degrees C, while litter addition had a minor influence. BVOC emissions were seasonal, and warming combined with litter addition triggered emissions of specific compounds. *The unexpectedly high rate of release of BVOCs measured in this conservative warming scenario is far above the estimates produced by the current models, which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions during climate change. The observed changes have implications for ecological interactions and feedback effects on climate change via impacts on aerosol formation and indirect greenhouse effects.

  15. Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matthews, E.

    2012-12-01

    Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a

  16. Global terrestrial isoprene emission models: sensitivity to variability in climate and vegetation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Arneth

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Due to its effects on the atmospheric lifetime of methane, the burdens of tropospheric ozone and growth of secondary organic aerosol, isoprene is central among the biogenic compounds that need to be taken into account for assessment of anthropogenic air pollution-climate change interactions. Lack of process-understanding regarding leaf isoprene production as well as of suitable observations to constrain and evaluate regional or global simulation results add large uncertainties to past, present and future emissions estimates. Focusing on contemporary climate conditions, we compare three global isoprene models that differ in their representation of vegetation and isoprene emission algorithm. We specifically aim to investigate the between- and within model variation that is introduced by varying some of the models' main features, and to determine which spatial and/or temporal features are robust between models and different experimental set-ups. In their individual standard configurations, the models broadly agree with respect to the chief isoprene sources and emission seasonality, with maximum monthly emission rates around 20–25 Tg C, when averaged by 30-degree latitudinal bands. They also indicate relatively small (approximately 5 to 10 % around the mean interannual variability of total global emissions. The models are sensitive to changes in one or more of their main model components and drivers (e.g., underlying vegetation fields, climate input which can yield increases or decreases in total annual emissions of cumulatively by more than 30 %. Varying drivers also strongly alters the seasonal emission pattern. The variable response needs to be interpreted in view of the vegetation emission capacities, as well as diverging absolute and regional distribution of light, radiation and temperature, but the direction of the simulated emission changes was not as uniform as anticipated. Our results highlight the need for modellers to evaluate their

  17. Regional aerosol emissions and temperature response: Local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewinschal, Anna; Ekman, Annica; Hansson, Hans-Christen

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols vary substantially over the globe and the short atmospheric residence time of aerosols leads to a highly uneven radiative forcing distribution, both spatially and temporally. Regional aerosol radiative forcing can, nevertheless, exert a large influence on the temperature field away from the forcing region through changes in heat transport or the atmospheric or ocean circulation. Moreover, the global temperature response distribution to aerosol forcing may vary depending on the geographical location of the forcing. In other words, the climate sensitivity in one region can vary depending on the location of the forcing. The surface temperature distribution response to changes in sulphate aerosol forcing caused by sulphur dioxide (SO2) emission perturbations in four different regions is investigated using the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM). The four regions, Europe, North America, East and South Asia, are all regions with historically high aerosol emissions and are relevant from both an air-quality and climate policy perspective. All emission perturbations are defined relative to the year 2000 emissions provided for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. The global mean temperature change per unit SO2 emission change is similar for all four regions for similar magnitudes of emissions changes. However, the global temperature change per unit SO2 emission in simulations where regional SO2 emission were removed is substantially higher than that obtained in simulations where regional SO2 emissions were increased. Thus, the climate sensitivity to regional SO2 emissions perturbations depends on the magnitude of the emission perturbation in NorESM. On regional scale, on the other hand, the emission perturbations in different geographical locations lead to different regional temperature responses, both locally and in remote regions. The results from the model simulations are used to construct regional temperature potential

  18. Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Barnard, Patrick; Vitousek, Sean; Limber, Patrick

    2017-01-01

    Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

  19. Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sutton, M.A.; Reis, S.; Riddick, S.N.; Dragosits, U.; Nemitz, E.; Tang, Y.S.; Braban, C.F.; Vieno, M.; Dore, A.J.; Mitchell, R.F.; Wanless, S.; Daunt, F.; Fowler, D. [NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Edinburgh, Bush Estate, Penicuik EH26 0QB (United Kingdom); Blackall, T.D. [Department of Geography, Strand Campus, Kings College London, London WC2R 2LS (United Kingdom); Theobald, M.R. [Higher Technical School of Agricultural Engineering, Technical University of Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria s/n, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Milford, C. [Izana Atmospheric Research Center, Meteorological State Agency of Spain (AEMET), Santa Cruz de Tenerife 38071 (Spain); Flechard, C.R. [INRA, Agrocampus Ouest, UMR 1069 SAS, 65 rue de St. Brieuc, 35042 Rennes Cedex (France); Loubet, B.; Massad, R.; Cellier, P.; Personne, E. [UMR INRA-AgroParisTech Environnement et Grandes Cultures, 78850 Thiverval-Grignon (France); Coheur, P.F.; Clarisse, L.; Van Damme, M.; Ngadi, Y. [Spectroscopie de l' atmosphere, Chimie Quantique et Photophysique, Universite Libre de Bruxelles (ULB), 50 avenue F. D. Roosevelt, 1050 Brussels (Belgium); Clerbaux, C. [Universite Paris 06, Universite Versailles-St. Quentin, UMR8190, CNRS/INSU, LATMOS-IPSL, Paris (France); Geels, C.; Hertel, O. [Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, P.O. Box 358, Frederiksborgvej 399, 4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Ambelas Skjoeth, C. [National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, University of Worcester, Henwick Grove, Worcester WR2 6AJ (United Kingdom); Wichink Kruit, R.J. [TNO, Climate, Air and Sustainability, P.O. Box 80015, 3508 TA Utrecht (Netherlands); Pinder, R.W.; Bash, J.O.; Walker, J.T. [US Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Research Triangle Park, 109 T.W. Alexander Drive, Durham, NC 27711 (United States); Simpson, D. [Norwegian Meteorological Institute, EMEP MSC-W, P.O. Box 43-Blindern, 0313 Oslo (Norway); Horvath, L. [Plant Ecology Research Group of Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Botany and Ecophysiology, Szent Istvan University, Pater K. utca 1, 2100 Goedoello (Hungary); Misselbrook, T.H. [Rothamsted Research, Sustainable Soils and Grassland Systems, North Wyke, Okehampton EX20 2SB (United Kingdom); Bleeker, A. [Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN), P.O. Box 1, 1755 ZG Petten (Netherlands); Dentener, F. [European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre, via Enrico Fermi 2749, 21027 Ispra (Italy); De Vries, W. [Alterra, Wageningen University and Research Centre, Droevendaalsesteeg 4, 6708 PB Wageningen (Netherlands)

    2013-07-15

    Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land-atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission-deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5{sup o}C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28-67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45-85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89-179) Tg by 2100.

  20. Methane emissions and climate compatibility of fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Meier, B.

    1992-01-01

    Methane contributes directly and indirectly to the additional greenhouse effect caused by human activities. The vast majority of the anthropogenic methane release occurs worldwide in non-fossil sources such as rice cultivation, livestock operations, sanitary landfills and combustion of bio-mass. Methane emissions also occur during production, distribution and utilisation of fossil fuels. Also when considering the methane release and CO 2 -emissions of processes upstream of combustion, the ranking of environmental compatibility of natural gas, fuel oil and cool remains unchanged. Of all fossil fuels, natural gas contributes the least to the greenhouse effect. (orig.) [de

  1. The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stowell, Jennifer D; Kim, Young-Min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S; Chang, Howard H; Liu, Yang

    2017-11-01

    Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O 3 ) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O 3 exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O 3 levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O 3 levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O 3 concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. The largest increases in O 3 are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O 3 increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O 3 -related mortality. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Secondary aerosol formation from stress-induced biogenic emissions and possible climate feedbacks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Th. F. Mentel

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Atmospheric aerosols impact climate by scattering and absorbing solar radiation and by acting as ice and cloud condensation nuclei. Biogenic secondary organic aerosols (BSOAs comprise an important component of atmospheric aerosols. Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs emitted by vegetation are the source of BSOAs. Pathogens and insect attacks, heat waves and droughts can induce stress to plants that may impact their BVOC emissions, and hence the yield and type of formed BSOAs, and possibly their climatic effects. This raises questions of whether stress-induced changes in BSOA formation may attenuate or amplify effects of climate change. In this study we assess the potential impact of stress-induced BVOC emissions on BSOA formation for tree species typical for mixed deciduous and Boreal Eurasian forests. We studied the photochemical BSOA formation for plants infested by aphids in a laboratory setup under well-controlled conditions and applied in addition heat and drought stress. The results indicate that stress conditions substantially modify BSOA formation and yield. Stress-induced emissions of sesquiterpenes, methyl salicylate, and C17-BVOCs increase BSOA yields. Mixtures including these compounds exhibit BSOA yields between 17 and 33%, significantly higher than mixtures containing mainly monoterpenes (4–6% yield. Green leaf volatiles suppress SOA formation, presumably by scavenging OH, similar to isoprene. By classifying emission types, stressors and BSOA formation potential, we discuss possible climatic feedbacks regarding aerosol effects. We conclude that stress situations for plants due to climate change should be considered in climate–vegetation feedback mechanisms.

  3. Emission metrics for quantifying regional climate impacts of aviation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Lund

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available This study examines the impacts of emissions from aviation in six source regions on global and regional temperatures. We consider the NOx-induced impacts on ozone and methane, aerosols and contrail-cirrus formation and calculate the global and regional emission metrics global warming potential (GWP, global temperature change potential (GTP and absolute regional temperature change potential (ARTP. The GWPs and GTPs vary by a factor of 2–4 between source regions. We find the highest aviation aerosol metric values for South Asian emissions, while contrail-cirrus metrics are higher for Europe and North America, where contrail formation is prevalent, and South America plus Africa, where the optical depth is large once contrails form. The ARTP illustrate important differences in the latitudinal patterns of radiative forcing (RF and temperature response: the temperature response in a given latitude band can be considerably stronger than suggested by the RF in that band, also emphasizing the importance of large-scale circulation impacts. To place our metrics in context, we quantify temperature change in four broad latitude bands following 1 year of emissions from present-day aviation, including CO2. Aviation over North America and Europe causes the largest net warming impact in all latitude bands, reflecting the higher air traffic activity in these regions. Contrail cirrus gives the largest warming contribution in the short term, but remain important at about 15 % of the CO2 impact in several regions even after 100 years. Our results also illustrate both the short- and long-term impacts of CO2: while CO2 becomes dominant on longer timescales, it also gives a notable warming contribution already 20 years after the emission. Our emission metrics can be further used to estimate regional temperature change under alternative aviation emission scenarios. A first evaluation of the ARTP in the context of aviation suggests that further work to account

  4. Impact of preindustrial to present-day changes in short-lived pollutant emissions on atmospheric composition and climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naik, Vaishali; Horowitz, Larry W.; Fiore, Arlene M.; Ginoux, Paul; Mao, Jingqiu; Aghedo, Adetutu M.; Levy, Hiram

    2013-07-01

    We describe and evaluate atmospheric chemistry in the newly developed Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory chemistry-climate model (GFDL AM3) and apply it to investigate the net impact of preindustrial (PI) to present (PD) changes in short-lived pollutant emissions (ozone precursors, sulfur dioxide, and carbonaceous aerosols) and methane concentration on atmospheric composition and climate forcing. The inclusion of online troposphere-stratosphere interactions, gas-aerosol chemistry, and aerosol-cloud interactions (including direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects) in AM3 enables a more complete representation of interactions among short-lived species, and thus their net climate impact, than was considered in previous climate assessments. The base AM3 simulation, driven with observed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice cover (SIC) over the period 1981-2007, generally reproduces the observed mean magnitude, spatial distribution, and seasonal cycle of tropospheric ozone and carbon monoxide. The global mean aerosol optical depth in our base simulation is within 5% of satellite measurements over the 1982-2006 time period. We conduct a pair of simulations in which only the short-lived pollutant emissions and methane concentrations are changed from PI (1860) to PD (2000) levels (i.e., SST, SIC, greenhouse gases, and ozone-depleting substances are held at PD levels). From the PI to PD, we find that changes in short-lived pollutant emissions and methane have caused the tropospheric ozone burden to increase by 39% and the global burdens of sulfate, black carbon, and organic carbon to increase by factors of 3, 2.4, and 1.4, respectively. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentration decreases by 7%, showing that increases in OH sinks (methane, carbon monoxide, nonmethane volatile organic compounds, and sulfur dioxide) dominate over sources (ozone and nitrogen oxides) in the model. Combined changes in tropospheric ozone and aerosols cause a net negative top

  5. Greenhouse gas emission and exergy analyses of an integrated trigeneration system driven by a solid oxide fuel cell

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chitsaz, Ata; Mahmoudi, S. Mohammad S.; Rosen, Marc A.

    2015-01-01

    Exergy and greenhouse gas emission analyses are performed for a novel trigeneration system driven by a solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC). The trigeneration system also consists of a generator-absorber heat exchanger (GAX) absorption refrigeration system and a heat exchanger to produce electrical energy, cooling and heating, respectively. Four operating cases are considered: electrical power generation, electrical power and cooling cogeneration, electrical power and heating cogeneration, and trigeneration. Attention is paid to numerous system and environmental performance parameters, namely, exergy efficiency, exergy destruction rate, and greenhouse gas emissions. A maximum enhancement of 46% is achieved in the exergy efficiency when the SOFC is used as the primary mover for the trigeneration system compared to the case when the SOFC is used as a standalone unit. The main sources of irreversibility are observed to be the air heat exchanger, the SOFC and the afterburner. The unit CO 2 emission (in kg/MWh) is considerably higher for the case in which only electrical power is generated. This parameter is reduced by half when the system is operates in a trigeneration mode. - Highlights: • A novel trigeneration system driven by a solid oxide fuel cell is analyzed. • Exergy and greenhouse gas emission analyses are performed. • Four special cases are considered. • An enhancement of up to 46% is achieved in exergy efficiency. • The CO 2 emission drops to a relatively low value for the tri-generation case

  6. High estimates of supply constrained emissions scenarios for long-term climate risk assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ward, James D.; Mohr, Steve H.; Myers, Baden R.; Nel, Willem P.

    2012-01-01

    The simulated effects of anthropogenic global warming have become important in many fields and most models agree that significant impacts are becoming unavoidable in the face of slow action. Improvements to model accuracy rely primarily on the refinement of parameter sensitivities and on plausible future carbon emissions trajectories. Carbon emissions are the leading cause of global warming, yet current considerations of future emissions do not consider structural limits to fossil fuel supply, invoking a wide range of uncertainty. Moreover, outdated assumptions regarding the future abundance of fossil energy could contribute to misleading projections of both economic growth and climate change vulnerability. Here we present an easily replicable mathematical model that considers fundamental supply-side constraints and demonstrate its use in a stochastic analysis to produce a theoretical upper limit to future emissions. The results show a significant reduction in prior uncertainty around projected long term emissions, and even assuming high estimates of all fossil fuel resources and high growth of unconventional production, cumulative emissions tend to align to the current medium emissions scenarios in the second half of this century. This significant finding provides much-needed guidance on developing relevant emissions scenarios for long term climate change impact studies. - Highlights: ► GHG emissions from conventional and unconventional fossil fuels modelled nationally. ► Assuming worst-case: large resource, high growth, rapid uptake of unconventional. ► Long-term cumulative emissions align well with the SRES medium emissions scenario. ► High emissions are unlikely to be sustained through the second half of this century. ► Model designed to be easily extended to test other scenarios e.g. energy shortages.

  7. The distributional effects of emissions taxation in Brazil and their implications for climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva Freitas, Lucio Flavio da; Santana Ribeiro, Luiz Carlos de; Barreiro de Souza, Kênia; Hewings, Geoffrey John Dennis

    2016-01-01

    The emission of greenhouse gases (GHG) generated by human activity is a major cause of global warming and climate change. There is considerable debate about the choice of the best mechanism to reduce emissions under a climate policy. The aim of this paper is to measure the impact of a policy of taxing GHG emissions on the Brazilian economy as a whole and on different household groups based on income levels in 2009. The following databases were used: Supply and Use Tables, Household Budget Survey, National Household Sample Survey and emissions data from the Brazilian Ministry of Science and Technology and Innovation. A price system from a national input–output model that incorporates the intensity of GHG emissions is used, as well as a consumption vector broken down into ten representative households with different income levels. The main results indicate that this taxation system was slightly regressive and had a small negative impact on output. There were, however, significant emissions reductions. - Highlights: • We measure the distributive impact of a taxation policy of GHG emissions in Brazil. • Poorest households have the highest expenditure emissions coefficient. • The poorest households are most affected by both reducing consumption and labor income. • Overall, the taxation was slightly regressive and had a small negative impact on output.

  8. Sensitivity of isoprene emissions estimated using MEGAN to the time resolution of input climate data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Ashworth

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the effect of varying the temporal resolution of the input climate data on isoprene emission estimates generated by the community emissions model MEGAN (Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature. The estimated total global annual emissions of isoprene is reduced from 766 Tg y−1 when using hourly input data to 746 Tg y−1 (a reduction of 3% for daily average input data and 711 Tg y−1 (down 7% for monthly average input data. The impact on a local scale can be more significant with reductions of up to 55% at some locations when using monthly average data compared with using hourly data. If the daily and monthly average temperature data are used without the imposition of a diurnal cycle the global emissions estimates fall by 27–32%, and local annual emissions by up to 77%. A similar pattern emerges if hourly isoprene fluxes are considered. In order to better simulate and predict isoprene emission rates using MEGAN, we show it is necessary to use temperature and radiation data resolved to one hour. Given the importance of land-atmosphere interactions in the Earth system and the low computational cost of the MEGAN algorithms, we recommend that chemistry-climate models and the new generation of Earth system models input biogenic emissions at the highest temporal resolution possible.

  9. Comparing climate and cost impacts of reference levels for reducing emissions from deforestation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Busch, Jonah [Center for Applied Biodiversity Science, Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA (United States); Strassburg, Bernardo [Center for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ (United Kingdom); Cattaneo, Andrea [Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Road, Falmouth, MA 02540-1644 (United States); Lubowski, Ruben [Environmental Defense Fund, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Washington, DC (United States); Bruner, Aaron; Rice, Richard; Boltz, Frederick [Conservation International, 2011 Crystal Drive, Suite 500, Arlington, VA (United States); Creed, Anna; Ashton, Ralph, E-mail: jbusch@conservation.or [Terrestrial Carbon Group, 900 17th Street NW, Suite 700, Washington, DC (United States)

    2009-10-15

    The climate benefit and economic cost of an international mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) will depend on the design of reference levels for crediting emission reductions. We compare the impacts of six proposed reference level designs on emission reduction levels and on cost per emission reduction using a stylized partial equilibrium model (the open source impacts of REDD incentives spreadsheet; OSIRIS). The model explicitly incorporates national incentives to participate in an international REDD mechanism as well as international leakage of deforestation emissions. Our results show that a REDD mechanism can provide cost-efficient climate change mitigation benefits under a broad range of reference level designs. We find that the most effective reference level designs balance incentives to reduce historically high deforestation emissions with incentives to maintain historically low deforestation emissions. Estimates of emission reductions under REDD depend critically on the degree to which demand for tropical frontier agriculture generates leakage. This underscores the potential importance to REDD of complementary strategies to supply agricultural needs outside of the forest frontier.

  10. Comparing climate and cost impacts of reference levels for reducing emissions from deforestation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busch, Jonah; Strassburg, Bernardo; Cattaneo, Andrea; Lubowski, Ruben; Bruner, Aaron; Rice, Richard; Boltz, Frederick; Creed, Anna; Ashton, Ralph

    2009-01-01

    The climate benefit and economic cost of an international mechanism for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) will depend on the design of reference levels for crediting emission reductions. We compare the impacts of six proposed reference level designs on emission reduction levels and on cost per emission reduction using a stylized partial equilibrium model (the open source impacts of REDD incentives spreadsheet; OSIRIS). The model explicitly incorporates national incentives to participate in an international REDD mechanism as well as international leakage of deforestation emissions. Our results show that a REDD mechanism can provide cost-efficient climate change mitigation benefits under a broad range of reference level designs. We find that the most effective reference level designs balance incentives to reduce historically high deforestation emissions with incentives to maintain historically low deforestation emissions. Estimates of emission reductions under REDD depend critically on the degree to which demand for tropical frontier agriculture generates leakage. This underscores the potential importance to REDD of complementary strategies to supply agricultural needs outside of the forest frontier.

  11. Zero emission targets as long-term global goals for climate protection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan; Schaeffer, Michiel; Hare, William; Meinshausen, Malte; Knutti, Reto; Alcamo, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Recently, assessments have robustly linked stabilization of global-mean temperature rise to the necessity of limiting the total amount of emitted carbon-dioxide (CO 2 ). Halting global warming thus requires virtually zero annual CO 2 emissions at some point. Policymakers have now incorporated this concept in the negotiating text for a new global climate agreement, but confusion remains about concepts like carbon neutrality, climate neutrality, full decarbonization, and net zero carbon or net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Here we clarify these concepts, discuss their appropriateness to serve as a long-term global benchmark for achieving temperature targets, and provide a detailed quantification. We find that with current pledges and for a likely (>66%) chance of staying below 2 °C, the scenario literature suggests net zero CO 2 emissions between 2060 and 2070, with net negative CO 2 emissions thereafter. Because of residual non-CO 2 emissions, net zero is always reached later for total GHG emissions than for CO 2 . Net zero emissions targets are a useful focal point for policy, linking a global temperature target and socio-economic pathways to a necessary long-term limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions. (letter)

  12. Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development in Bangladesh (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, A.; Sandor, D.; Butheau, M.

    2013-11-01

    Bangladesh is widely considered to be one of the nations most threatened by climate change. With two-thirds of the country less than 20 feet above sea level, the intrusion of salt into freshwater wells, frequent flooding, and the displacement of people from their homes is an ongoing threat. At the same time, the country's cities are rapidly growing, and the demand for energy is increasing at a corresponding rate.

  13. Towards a climate-dependent paradigm of ammonia emission and deposition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutton, Mark A.; Reis, Stefan; Riddick, Stuart N.; Dragosits, Ulrike; Nemitz, Eiko; Theobald, Mark R.; Tang, Y. Sim; Braban, Christine F.; Vieno, Massimo; Dore, Anthony J.; Mitchell, Robert F.; Wanless, Sarah; Daunt, Francis; Fowler, David; Blackall, Trevor D.; Milford, Celia; Flechard, Chris R.; Loubet, Benjamin; Massad, Raia; Cellier, Pierre; Personne, Erwan; Coheur, Pierre F.; Clarisse, Lieven; Van Damme, Martin; Ngadi, Yasmine; Clerbaux, Cathy; Skjøth, Carsten Ambelas; Geels, Camilla; Hertel, Ole; Wichink Kruit, Roy J.; Pinder, Robert W.; Bash, Jesse O.; Walker, John T.; Simpson, David; Horváth, László; Misselbrook, Tom H.; Bleeker, Albert; Dentener, Frank; de Vries, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Existing descriptions of bi-directional ammonia (NH3) land–atmosphere exchange incorporate temperature and moisture controls, and are beginning to be used in regional chemical transport models. However, such models have typically applied simpler emission factors to upscale the main NH3 emission terms. While this approach has successfully simulated the main spatial patterns on local to global scales, it fails to address the environment- and climate-dependence of emissions. To handle these issues, we outline the basis for a new modelling paradigm where both NH3 emissions and deposition are calculated online according to diurnal, seasonal and spatial differences in meteorology. We show how measurements reveal a strong, but complex pattern of climatic dependence, which is increasingly being characterized using ground-based NH3 monitoring and satellite observations, while advances in process-based modelling are illustrated for agricultural and natural sources, including a global application for seabird colonies. A future architecture for NH3 emission–deposition modelling is proposed that integrates the spatio-temporal interactions, and provides the necessary foundation to assess the consequences of climate change. Based on available measurements, a first empirical estimate suggests that 5°C warming would increase emissions by 42 per cent (28–67%). Together with increased anthropogenic activity, global NH3 emissions may increase from 65 (45–85) Tg N in 2008 to reach 132 (89–179) Tg by 2100. PMID:23713128

  14. Climate-sensitive feedbacks between hillslope processes and fluvial erosion in sediment-driven incision models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skov, Daniel S.; Egholm, David L.

    2016-04-01

    Surface erosion and sediment production seem to have accelerated globally as climate cooled in the Late Cenozoic, [Molnar, P. 2004, Herman et al 2013]. Glaciers emerged in many high mountain ranges during the Quaternary, and glaciation therefore represents a likely explanation for faster erosion in such places. Still, observations and measurements point to increases in erosion rates also in landscapes where erosion is driven mainly by fluvial processes [Lease and Ehlers (2013), Reusser (2004)]. Flume experiments and fieldwork have shown that rates of incision are to a large degree controlled by the sediment load of streams [e.g. Sklar and Dietrich (2001), Beer and Turowski (2015)]. This realization led to the formulation of sediment-flux dependent incision models [Sklar and Dietrich (2004)]. The sediment-flux dependence links incision in the channels to hillslope processes that supply sediment to the channels. The rates of weathering and soil transport on the hillslopes are processes that are likely to respond to changing temperatures, e.g. because of vegetation changes or the occurrence of frost. In this study, we perform computational landscape evolution experiments, where the coupling between fluvial incision and hillslope processes is accounted for by coupling a sediment-flux-dependent model for fluvial incision to a climate-dependent model for weathering and hillslope sediment transport. The computational experiments first of all demonstrate a strong positive feedback between channel and hillslope processes. In general, faster weathering leads to higher rates of channel incision, which further increases the weathering rates, mainly because of hillslope steepening. Slower weathering leads to the opposite result. The experiments also demonstrate, however, that the feedbacks vary significantly between different parts of a drainage network. For example, increasing hillslope sediment production may accelerate incision in the upper parts of the catchment, while at

  15. Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

    OpenAIRE

    Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

    2016-01-01

    Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluate...

  16. Decarbonizing the Global Economy - An Integrated Assessment of Low Carbon Emission Scenarios proposed in Climate Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hokamp, Sascha; Khabbazan, Mohammad Mohammadi

    2017-04-01

    In 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP 21) reaffirmed to targeting the global mean temperature rise below 2 °C in 2100 while finding no consent on decarbonizing the global economy, and instead, the final agreement called for enhanced scientific investigation of low carbon emission scenarios (UNFCC, 2015). In addition, the Climate Action Network International (CAN) proposes Special Reports to address decarbonization and low carbon development including 1.5 °C scenarios (IPCC, 2016). In response to these developments, we investigate whether the carbon emission cuts, in accordance with the recent climate policy proposals, may reach the climate target. To tackle this research question, we employ the coupled climate-energy-economy integrated assessment Model of INvestment and endogenous technological Development (MIND, cf. Edenhofer et al., 2005, Neubersch et al. 2014). Extending MIND's climate module to the two-box version used in the Dynamic Integrated model of Climate and the Economy (DICE, cf. Nordhaus and Sztorc, 2013, Nordhaus 2014), we perform a cost-effectiveness analysis with constraints on anthropogenic carbon emissions. We show that a climate policy scenario with early decarbonization complies with the 2° C climate target, even without Carbon Capturing and Storage (CCS) or negative emissions (see van Vuuren et al., 2013, for negative emissions). However, using emission inertia of 3.7 percent annually, reflecting the inflexibility on transforming the energy sector, we find a climate policy with moderately low emissions from 2100 onwards at a cost in terms of Balanced Growth Equivalents (BGE, cf. Anthoff and Tol, 2009) of 0.764 % that requires an early (2035 vs. 2120) peak of investments in renewable energy production compared to a business-as-usual scenario. Hence, decarbonizing the global economy and achieving the 2 °C target might still be possible before 2100, but the window of opportunity is beginning to close. References: Anthoff, D., and Tol, R

  17. Emissions Trading: The Ugly Duckling in European Climate Policy?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wraake, Markus

    2009-07-15

    The initial years of the European Union's Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) have provided a large-scale testing ground for trading of a new environmental commodity, carbon dioxide. This paper provides an overview of the origins and characteristics of the EU ETS. It then goes on to analyse the most contentious issues that have been discussed in the economics literature and in the public debate surrounding the trading system. The lessons learned are diverse and not all experiences are positive. Nevertheless, invaluable information has been gained from the EU ETS and policy makers in Europe and elsewhere would be wise to make use of it, be they supporters of emissions trading or sceptics to such policies. The paper concludes with a look toward the future, highlighting some upcoming revisions of the EU ETS and at what issues remain unresolved

  18. Wildland fire emissions, carbon, and climate: U.S. emissions inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimhan K. Larkin; Sean M. Raffuse; Tara M. Strand

    2014-01-01

    Emissions from wildland fire are both highly variable and highly uncertain over a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Wildland fire emissions change considerably due to fluctuations from year to year with overall fire season severity, from season to season as different regions pass in and out of wildfire and prescribed fire periods, and from day to day as...

  19. Climate effects of a hypothetical regional nuclear war: Sensitivity to emission duration and particle composition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pausata, Francesco S. R.; Lindvall, Jenny; Ekman, Annica M. L.; Svensson, Gunilla

    2016-11-01

    Here, we use a coupled atmospheric-ocean-aerosol model to investigate the plume development and climate effects of the smoke generated by fires following a regional nuclear war between emerging third-world nuclear powers. We simulate a standard scenario where 5 Tg of black carbon (BC) is emitted over 1 day in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere. However, it is likely that the emissions from the fires ignited by bomb detonations include a substantial amount of particulate organic matter (POM) and that they last more than 1 day. We therefore test the sensitivity of the aerosol plume and climate system to the BC/POM ratio (1:3, 1:9) and to the emission length (1 day, 1 week, 1 month). We find that in general, an emission length of 1 month substantially reduces the cooling compared to the 1-day case, whereas taking into account POM emissions notably increases the cooling and the reduction of precipitation associated with the nuclear war during the first year following the detonation. Accounting for POM emissions increases the particle size in the short-emission-length scenarios (1 day/1 week), reducing the residence time of the injected particle. While the initial cooling is more intense when including POM emission, the long-lasting effects, while still large, may be less extreme compared to the BC-only case. Our study highlights that the emission altitude reached by the plume is sensitive to both the particle type emitted by the fires and the emission duration. Consequently, the climate effects of a nuclear war are strongly dependent on these parameters.

  20. Climate change and ocean deoxygenation within intensified surface-driven upwelling circulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bakun, Andrew

    2017-09-13

    Ocean deoxygenation often takes place in proximity to zones of intense upwelling. Associated concerns about amplified ocean deoxygenation arise from an arguable likelihood that coastal upwelling systems in the world's oceans may further intensify as anthropogenic climate change proceeds. Comparative examples discussed include the uniquely intense seasonal Somali Current upwelling, the massive upwelling that occurs quasi-continuously off Namibia and the recently appearing and now annually recurring 'dead zone' off the US State of Oregon. The evident 'transience' in causal dynamics off Oregon is somewhat mirrored in an interannual-scale intermittence in eruptions of anaerobically formed noxious gases off Namibia. A mechanistic scheme draws the three examples towards a common context in which, in addition to the obvious but politically problematic remedy of actually reducing 'greenhouse' gas emissions, the potentially manageable abundance of strongly swimming, finely gill raker-meshed small pelagic fish emerges as a plausible regulating factor.This article is part of the themed issue 'Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  1. Separating the Effects of Tropical Atlantic and Pacific SST-driven Climate Variability on Amazon Carbon Exchange

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liptak, J.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

    2016-12-01

    Amazon forests store an estimated 25% percent of global terrestrial carbon per year1, 2, but the responses of Amazon carbon uptake to climate change is highly uncertain. One source of this uncertainty is tropical sea surface temperature variability driven by teleconnections. El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a key driver of year-to-year Amazon carbon exchange, with associated temperature and precipitation changes favoring net carbon storage in La Nina years, and net carbon release during El Nino years3. To determine how Amazon climate and terrestrial carbon fluxes react to ENSO alone and in concert with other SST-driven teleconnections such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), we force the atmosphere (CAM5) and land (CLM4) components of the CESM(BGC) with prescribed monthly SSTs over the period 1950—2014 in a Historical control simulation. We then run an experiment (PAC) with time-varying SSTs applied only to the tropical equatorial Pacific Ocean, and repeating SST seasonal cycle climatologies elsewhere. Limiting SST variability to the equatorial Pacific indicates that other processes enhance ENSO-driven Amazon climate anomalies. Compared to the Historical control simulation, warming, drying and terrestrial carbon loss over the Amazon during El Nino periods are lower in the PAC simulation, especially prior to 1990 during the cool phase of the AMO. Cooling, moistening, and net carbon uptake during La Nina periods are also reduced in the PAC simulation, but differences are greater after 1990 during the warm phase of the AMO. By quantifying the relationships among climate drivers and carbon fluxes in the Historical and PAC simulations, we both assess the sensitivity of these relationships to the magnitude of ENSO forcing and quantify how other teleconnections affect ENSO-driven Amazon climate feedbacks. We expect that these results will help us improve hypotheses for how Atlantic and Pacific climate trends will affect future Amazon carbon carbon

  2. Restoring Tides to Avoid Methane Emissions in Degraded Wetlands: A Potent and Untapped Climate Intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, K. D.; Crooks, S.; Moseman-Valtierra, S.; Tang, J.

    2016-12-01

    To date, activity related to carbon (C) management in coastal marine ecosystems (sometimes referred to as "Blue Carbon") has been concerned primarily with preserving existing C stocks or creating new wetlands to increase CO2 uptake and sequestration. Here we show that the globally-widespread occurrence of hydrologically-altered, degraded wetlands, and associated enhanced GHG emissions, presents an opportunity to reduce an anthropogenic GHG emission through restoration. We model the climatic forcing associated with carbon sinks in natural wetlands and with GHG emissions in altered and degraded wetlands, as well as compile geographic data on tidal restrictions to show that substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of saline tidal flows in diked, impounded and tidally-restricted coastal wetlands. Despite high rates of carbon storage in coastal ecosystems, tidal restoration has dramatically greater potential per unit area as a climate intervention than most other ecosystem management actions. We argue that such emissions reductions represent avoided anthropogenic emissions, equivalent in concept to reduced fossil fuel emissions. Once the emissions have been avoided, the benefit of that action cannot be eliminated, even if emissions resume in the future due to degradation of the ecosystem. The avoided emissions therefore have inherent "permanence", obviating concerns associated with vulnerability of C stocks in land-use based interventions that enhance C sequestration in wood or soil. Further, emissions reductions are likely to be rapid, and given the high radiative efficiency of avoided CH4, wetland tidal restorations can provide near-term climate benefit. The U.S. has recently initiated an effort to include coastal wetlands in the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, and the analysis presented here indicates that tidally restricted wetlands meet the primary criteria for inventoried ecosystems in that

  3. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  4. Emission characteristics of petrol and diesel driven vehicles in Rewa town

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mishra, R.M.; Gupta, A.K.; Parihar, Sarita

    1993-01-01

    Air pollution by road traffic is likely to be severe in most of the major cities of India, in near future. An emission survey was conducted in Rewa town to obtain the basic data on emission characteristics of inservice vehicles. About 250 two wheelers, 110 cars and 350 diesel vehicles were tested for the emissions of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons. Present paper summarizes the data of vehicular emissions observed in this survey and discusses the emission level of different categories of vehicles, in the light of the proposed national standards and the emission standards enforced in developed countries. (author). 9 refs., 4 tabs

  5. Teaching and Practicing Climate Politics at College of the Atlantic: Student-inspired, Student-driven

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Doreen Stabinsky

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available College of the Atlantic students past and present play leadership roles in the international climate justice youth movement. Student interest in climate change politics at the global level, particularly within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, has inspired the development of a range of courses at COA in global environmental diplomacy. The courses provide a climate justice framework for understanding the geopolitics and political economy of the negotiations, serve to link students with key actors in the climate justice movement, and ultimately to contribute to their own development as climate justice leaders.

  6. The implications of intermediate stop operations on aviation emissions and climate

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Linke, F.; Grewe, V.; Gollnick, V

    2017-01-01

    Among the various transport modes aviation’s impact on climate change deserves special attention. Due to typical flight altitudes in the upper troposphere and above, the effect of aircraft engine emissions like e.g. water vapour, nitrogen oxides and aerosols on

  7. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M; O'Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A; Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M

    2011-01-01

    Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

  8. The response of the climate system to very high greenhouse gas emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sanderson, Benjamin M; O' Neill, Brian C; Kiehl, Jeffrey T; Meehl, Gerald A [National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Knutti, Reto; Washington, Warren M, E-mail: bsander@ucar.edu [Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich (Switzerland)

    2011-07-15

    Well informed decisions on climate policy necessitate simulation of the climate system for a sufficiently wide range of emissions scenarios. While recent literature has been devoted to low emissions futures, the potential for very high emissions has not been thoroughly explored. We specify two illustrative emissions scenarios that are significantly higher than the A1FI scenario, the highest scenario considered in past IPCC reports, and simulate them in a global climate model to investigate their climate change implications. Relative to the A1FI scenario, our highest scenario results in an additional 2 K of global mean warming above A1FI levels by 2100, a complete loss of arctic summer sea-ice by 2070 and an additional 43% sea level rise due to thermal expansion above A1FI levels by 2100. Regional maximum temperature increases from late 20th century values are 50-100% greater than A1FI increases, with some regions such as the Central US, the Tibetan plateau and Alaska showing a 300-400% increase above A1FI levels.

  9. Prediction of trace gas emissions and their climatic impacts. Some geographical considerations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nicholson, S E [Florida State Univ., Dept. ofMeteorology, Tallahassee, FL (United States)

    1993-12-31

    This paper examines two major areas of uncertainty in the prediction of the impact of trace gas emissions on climate. The first is socioeconomic factors which determine the rate of such processes as resource use, industrial production or land conversion. The second is the feedback between the earth`s land surface and climate. Since the land surface is the source of trace gas emissions, both natural and anthropogenic changes of vegetation will affect the nature and quantity of emissions. This paper demonstrates large-scale land surface changes which have taken place naturally or from human activities, either intentionally or inadvertently, and describes the dwindling availability of natural resources, using water as an example. Vegetation is also examined as both a response to and a determining factor in climate. Hence, the intricate feedback between vegetation and climate complicates any attempt to predict climatic change. Better quantitative assessment of all relationships and processes is required to achieve realistic forecasts of global change. (au) 31 refs.

  10. CO{sub 2} emissions from battery-driven electromobiles; CO{sub 2}-Emissionen von Batterie-Elektrofahrzeugen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Erdmann, Georg [Technische Univ. Berlin (Germany). Fachgebiet Energiesysteme

    2009-10-15

    For all the euphoria currently surrounding electromobility, electrically powered road vehicles too have their drawbacks. While the vehicles themselves emit no climatically harmful greenhouses gases during operation, the production of the electricity that drives them is associated with a greater or lesser amount of CO{sub 2} emissions, depending on the production chain. Is it conceivable that private electromobiles offer no advantage after all in terms of climate protection? Be it as it may, this question must be answered before electromobiles become a means of mass transport.

  11. Modelling climate impact on floods under future emission scenarios using an ensemble of climate model projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; He, Y.; Freer, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2012-04-01

    Evidence provided by modelled assessments of climate change impact on flooding is fundamental to water resource and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from Global and Regional Climate Models, and there is no doubt that these provide a useful assessment of future climate change. However, cascading ensembles of climate projections into impact models is not straightforward because of problems of coarse resolution in Global and Regional Climate Models (GCM/RCM) and the deficiencies in modelling high-intensity precipitation events. Thus decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs, such as selection of downscaling methods and application of Model Output Statistics (MOS). In this paper a grand ensemble of projections from several GCM/RCM are used to drive a hydrological model and analyse the resulting future flood projections for the Upper Severn, UK. The impact and implications of applying MOS techniques to precipitation as well as hydrological model parameter uncertainty is taken into account. The resultant grand ensemble of future river discharge projections from the RCM/GCM-hydrological model chain is evaluated against a response surface technique combined with a perturbed physics experiment creating a probabilisic ensemble climate model outputs. The ensemble distribution of results show that future risk of flooding in the Upper Severn increases compared to present conditions, however, the study highlights that the uncertainties are large and that strong assumptions were made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future discharge. The importance of analysing on a seasonal basis rather than just annual is highlighted. The inability of the RCMs (and GCMs) to produce realistic precipitation patterns, even in present conditions, is a major caveat of local climate impact studies on flooding, and this should be a focus for future development.

  12. Impacts of Climate Change Induced Vegetation Responses on BVOC Emissions from Subarctic Heath Ecosystems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valolahti, Hanna Maritta

    The role of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) affecting Earths’ climate system is one of the greatest uncertainties when modelling the global climate change. BVOCs presence in the atmosphere can have both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms when they involve atmospheric...... chemistry and physics. Vegetation is the main source of BVOCs. Their production is directly linked to temperature and the foliar biomass. On global scale, vegetation in subarctic and arctic regions has been modeled to have only minor contribution to annual total BVOC emissions. In these regions cold...... temperature has been regulating annual plant biomass production, but ongoing global warming is more pronounced in these regions than what the global average is. This may increase the importance of subarctic and arctic vegetation as a source of BVOC emissions in near future. This thesis aims to increase...

  13. Methane emissions from oceans, coasts, and freshwater habitats: New perspectives and feedbacks on climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamdan, Leila J.; Wickland, Kimberly P.

    2016-01-01

    Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, and atmospheric concentrations have risen 2.5 times since the beginning of the Industrial age. While much of this increase is attributed to anthropogenic sources, natural sources, which contribute between 35% and 50% of global methane emissions, are thought to have a role in the atmospheric methane increase, in part due to human influences. Methane emissions from many natural sources are sensitive to climate, and positive feedbacks from climate change and cultural eutrophication may promote increased emissions to the atmosphere. These natural sources include aquatic environments such as wetlands, freshwater lakes, streams and rivers, and estuarine, coastal, and marine systems. Furthermore, there are significant marine sediment stores of methane in the form of clathrates that are vulnerable to mobilization and release to the atmosphere from climate feedbacks, and subsurface thermogenic gas which in exceptional cases may be released following accidents and disasters (North Sea blowout and Deepwater Horizon Spill respectively). Understanding of natural sources, key processes, and controls on emission is continually evolving as new measurement and modeling capabilities develop, and different sources and processes are revealed. This special issue of Limnology and Oceanography gathers together diverse studies on methane production, consumption, and emissions from freshwater, estuarine, and marine systems, and provides a broad view of the current science on methane dynamics of aquatic ecosystems. Here, we provide a general overview of aquatic methane sources, their contribution to the global methane budget, and key uncertainties. We then briefly summarize the contributions to and highlights of this special issue.

  14. Strategies for implementing Climate Smart Agriculture and creating marketable Greenhouse emission reduction credits, for small scale rice farmers in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahuja, R.; Kritee, K.; Rudek, J.; Van Sanh, N.; Thu Ha, T.

    2014-12-01

    Industrial agriculture systems, mostly in developed and some emerging economies, are far different from the small holder farms that dot the landscapes in Asia and Africa. At Environmental Defense Fund, along with our partners from non-governmental, corporate, academic and government sectors and farmers, we have worked actively in India and Vietnam for the last four years to better understand how small scale farmers working on rice paddy (and other upland crops) cultivation can best deal with climate change. Some of the questions we have tried to answer are: What types of implementable best practices, both old and new, on small farm systems lend themselves to improved yields, farm incomes, climate resilience and mitigation? Can these practices be replicated everywhere or is the change more landscape and people driven? What are the institutional, cultural, financial and risk-perception related barriers that prevent scaling up of these practices? How do we innovate and overcome these barriers? The research community needs to work more closely together and leverage multiple scientific, economic and policy disciplines to fully answer these questions. In the case of small farm systems, we find that it helps to follow certain steps if the climate-smart (or low carbon) farming programs are to succeed and the greenhouse credits generated are to be marketed: Demographic data collection and plot demarcation Farmer networks and diaries Rigorous baseline determination via surveys Alternative practice determination via consultation with local universities/experts Measurements on representative plots for 3-4 years (including GHG emissions, yields, inputs, economic and environmental savings) to help calibrate biogeochemical models and/or calculate regional emission factors. Propagation of alternative practices across the landscape via local NGOs/governments Recording of parameters necessary to extrapolate representative plot GHG emission reductions to all farmers in a given

  15. Nitrous oxide emissions from manure handling - effects of storage conditions and climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sommer, S.G.; Petersen, S.O.

    2002-01-01

    Stored animal manure and manure applied in the field contributes an estimated 20% to the total anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide (N 2 0) in Denmark. Manure composition, handling and climatic conditions may all influence the emission level during storage, but there are relatively few experimental data on emissions of N 2 0 from manure management, including animal houses, slurry stores and manure heaps. Among animal housing systems, very high emission rates have been found with pig deep lifter, and N 2 0 emissions are further stimulated by mechanical mixing. Slurry stores are anaerobic, but a recent study showed that N 2 0 can be produced in porous surface covers such as natural surface crusts, straw or leca pebbles, while no N 2 0 was emitted from uncovered slurry. The emission was significantly related to the water balance, i.e., the difference between evaporation and rain, during dry periods; during wet periods no N 2 0 was emitted. For solid manure, previous studies have typically found that less than 1 % of total N is emitted as N 2 0. Nitrous oxide may be produced throughout the manure heap, provided an environment with both aerobic and anaerobic pockets exists. Profiles from an experimental heap indicated that most of the N 2 0 emitted from solid manure was produced near the surface of the heap. Increasing density appears to stimulate N 2 0 emissions up to a point, where the air exchange is significantly impeded. The IPCC methodology calculates N 2 0 emissions from manure on the basis of total N content (that is, on the basis of volume) and climate region only. Possibly, estimates of N 2 0 emissions from slurry stores could be improved by considering surface area, ammonium content and water balance as input variables. Emissions from solid manure heaps should consider surface area and the potential for composting, as reflected in bulk density and moisture content. (au)

  16. Control of spontaneous emission from a microwave-field-driven four-level atom in an anisotropic photonic crystal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Duo; Li, Jiahua; Ding, Chunling; Yang, Xiaoxue

    2012-05-01

    The spontaneous emission properties of a microwave-field-driven four-level atom embedded in anisotropic double-band photonic crystals (PCs) are investigated. We discuss the influences of the band-edge positions, Rabi frequency and detuning of the microwave field on the emission spectrum. It is found that several interesting features such as spectral-line enhancement, spectral-line suppression, spectral-line overlap, and multi-peak structures can be observed in the spectra. The proposed scheme can be achieved by use of a microwave-coupled field into hyperfine levels in rubidium atom confined in a photonic crystal. These theoretical investigations may provide more degrees of freedom to manipulate the atomic spontaneous emission.

  17. Framing Climate Goals in Terms of Cumulative CO2-Forcing-Equivalent Emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jenkins, S.; Millar, R. J.; Leach, N.; Allen, M. R.

    2018-03-01

    The relationship between cumulative CO2 emissions and CO2-induced warming is determined by the Transient Climate Response to Emissions (TCRE), but total anthropogenic warming also depends on non-CO2 forcing, complicating the interpretation of emissions budgets based on CO2 alone. An alternative is to frame emissions budgets in terms of CO2-forcing-equivalent (CO2-fe) emissions—the CO2 emissions that would yield a given total anthropogenic radiative forcing pathway. Unlike conventional "CO2-equivalent" emissions, these are directly related to warming by the TCRE and need to fall to zero to stabilize warming: hence, CO2-fe emissions generalize the concept of a cumulative carbon budget to multigas scenarios. Cumulative CO2-fe emissions from 1870 to 2015 inclusive are found to be 2,900 ± 600 GtCO2-fe, increasing at a rate of 67 ± 9.5 GtCO2-fe/yr. A TCRE range of 0.8-2.5°C per 1,000 GtC implies a total budget for 0.6°C of additional warming above the present decade of 880-2,750 GtCO2-fe, with 1,290 GtCO2-fe implied by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 median response, corresponding to 19 years' CO2-fe emissions at the current rate.

  18. Developing countries are combating climate change. Actions in developing countries that slow growth in carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Reid, Walter V.; Goldemberg, Jose

    1998-01-01

    The role of developing countries in helping to solve the problem of climate change is increasingly a focus of political controversy. With levels of greenhouse gas emissions projected to exceed those of developed countries by 2020, some industrialized countries are calling on developing countries to take stronger action to meet the commitments they have made in the Framework Convention on Climate Change (FCCC). This review of recent policy changes in developing countries, however, suggests that they are already taking little appreciated steps that reduce rates of growth in carbon emissions. Indeed, since the 1992 signing of the FCCC, carbon emission savings in developing countries may be greater than those attained by industrialized countries. A major source of these gains can be attributed to energy price reforms that are likely to have led to substantial gains in production and end-use efficiency. (author)

  19. Carbon taxes and tradeable emissions permits: the economic impacts of climate change policies in New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chisholm, A.; Porter, M. [Tasman Institute (Australia)

    1994-12-31

    Examines the potential economic impacts on New Zealand of climate change policy covering carbon taxes, expanding forest areas as carbon sinks (including selling plantation based emission credits to other OECD nations), and emissions quotas. It is concluded that climate change policy appears to offer high short-term economic costs and little prospect of longer-term economic gain, apart from uncertain environmental benefits. If the Government pursues an active policy to stabilise gross emissions of carbon dioxide at 1990 levels, short term losses in national output and real spending power could be around 0.5 to 1% of GDP. Any major intervention by the New Zealand Government to alter energy use patterns would bring about structural changes in the economy. 4 tabs., 12 refs.

  20. Climate Benefits of Material Recycling: Inventory of Average Greenhouse Gas Emissions for Denmark, Norway and Sweden

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hillman, Karl; Damgaard, Anders; Eriksson, Ola

    The purpose of this project is to compare emissions of greenhouse gases from material recycling with those from virgin material production, both from a material supply perspective and from a recycling system perspective. The method for estimating emissions and climate benefits is based on a review......, followed by a selection, of the most relevant publications on life cycle assessment (LCA) of materials for use in Denmark, Norway and Sweden. The proposed averages show that emissions from material recycling are lower in both perspectives, comparing either material supply or complete recycling systems....... The results can be used by companies and industry associations in Denmark, Norway and Sweden to communicate the current climate benefits of material recycling in general. They may also contribute to discussions on a societal level, as long as their average and historic nature is recognised....

  1. Response of climate to regional emissions of ozone precursors: sensitivities and warming potentials

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berntsen, T.K.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Joshi, M.M.; Shine, K.P.; Hauglustaine, D.A.; Li, L.

    2005-01-01

    The response of climate to ozone perturbations caused by regional emissions of NO x or CO has been studied through a sequence of model simulations. Changes C and OH concentrations due to emission perturbations in Europe and southeast Asia have been calculated with two global 3-D chemical tracer models(CTMs; LMDzINCA and Oslo-CTM2). The radiative transfer codes of three general circulation models (GCMs; ECHAM4, UREAD and LMD) have been used to calculate the radiative forcing of the O 3 perturbations, and for a subset of the cases full GCM simulations have been performed with ECHAM4 and UREAD. The results have been aggregated to a global number in two ways: first, through integrating the global-mean radiative forcing of a sustained step change in emissions, and second through a modified concept (SGWP*) which includes possible differences in the climate sensitivity of O 3 , CH 4 and CO 2 changes. In terms of change in global tropospheric O 3 burden the two CTMs differ by less than 30%. Both CTMs show a higher north/south gradient in the sensitivity to changes in NO x emission than for CO. We are not able to conclude whether real O 3 perturbations in general have a different climate sensitivity from CO 2 . However, in both GCMs high-latitude emission perturbations lead to climate perturbations with higher (10-30%) climate sensitivities. The calculated SGWP*, for a 100 yr time horizon, are negative for three of the four CTM/GCM combinations for European emissions (-9.6 to +6.9), while for the Asian emissions the SGWP* (H=100) is always positive (+2.9 to +25) indicating a warming. For CO the SGWP* values (3.8 and 4.4 for European and Asian emissions respectively, with only the Oslo-CTM2/ECHAM4 model combination) are less regionally dependent. Our results support the view that for NO x , regionally different weighting factors for the emissions are necessary. For CO the results are more robust and one global number may be acceptable

  2. Evaluation of regional climate simulations over the Great Lakes region driven by three global data sets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shiyuan Zhong; Xiuping Li; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; L. Ruby Leung; William I. Jr. Gustafson

    2012-01-01

    The performance of regional climate simulations is evaluated for the Great Lakes region. Three 10-year (1990-1999) current-climate simulations are performed using the MM5 regional climate model (RCM) with 36-km horizontal resolution. The simulations employed identical configuration and physical parameterizations, but different lateral boundary conditions and sea-...

  3. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    John B Kim; Erwan Monier; Brent Sohngen; G Stephen Pitts; Ray Drapek; James McFarland; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

    2016-01-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a...

  4. LEDS Global Partnership in Action: Advancing Climate-Resilient Low Emission Development Around the World (Fact Sheet)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2013-11-01

    Many countries around the globe are designing and implementing low emission development strategies (LEDS). These LEDS seek to achieve social, economic, and environmental development goals while reducing long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing resiliency to climate change impacts. The LEDS Global Partnership (LEDS GP) harnesses the collective knowledge and resources of more than 120 countries and international donor and technical organizations to strengthen climate-resilient low emission development efforts around the world.

  5. Uncertainty in projected climate change arising from uncertain fossil-fuel emission factors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quilcaille, Y.; Gasser, T.; Ciais, P.; Lecocq, F.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Mohr, S.

    2018-04-01

    Emission inventories are widely used by the climate community, but their uncertainties are rarely accounted for. In this study, we evaluate the uncertainty in projected climate change induced by uncertainties in fossil-fuel emissions, accounting for non-CO2 species co-emitted with the combustion of fossil-fuels and their use in industrial processes. Using consistent historical reconstructions and three contrasted future projections of fossil-fuel extraction from Mohr et al we calculate CO2 emissions and their uncertainties stemming from estimates of fuel carbon content, net calorific value and oxidation fraction. Our historical reconstructions of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions are consistent with other inventories in terms of average and range. The uncertainties sum up to a ±15% relative uncertainty in cumulative CO2 emissions by 2300. Uncertainties in the emissions of non-CO2 species associated with the use of fossil fuels are estimated using co-emission ratios varying with time. Using these inputs, we use the compact Earth system model OSCAR v2.2 and a Monte Carlo setup, in order to attribute the uncertainty in projected global surface temperature change (ΔT) to three sources of uncertainty, namely on the Earth system’s response, on fossil-fuel CO2 emission and on non-CO2 co-emissions. Under the three future fuel extraction scenarios, we simulate the median ΔT to be 1.9, 2.7 or 4.0 °C in 2300, with an associated 90% confidence interval of about 65%, 52% and 42%. We show that virtually all of the total uncertainty is attributable to the uncertainty in the future Earth system’s response to the anthropogenic perturbation. We conclude that the uncertainty in emission estimates can be neglected for global temperature projections in the face of the large uncertainty in the Earth system response to the forcing of emissions. We show that this result does not hold for all variables of the climate system, such as the atmospheric partial pressure of CO2 and the

  6. Regional air quality management aspects of climate change: impact of climate mitigation options on regional air emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudokas, Jason; Miller, Paul J; Trail, Marcus A; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    We investigate the projected impact of six climate mitigation scenarios on U.S. emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and nitrogen oxides (NOX) associated with energy use in major sectors of the U.S. economy (commercial, residential, industrial, electricity generation, and transportation). We use the EPA U.S. 9-region national database with the MARKet Allocation energy system model to project emissions changes over the 2005 to 2050 time frame. The modeled scenarios are two carbon tax, two low carbon transportation, and two biomass fuel choice scenarios. In the lower carbon tax and both biomass fuel choice scenarios, SO2 and NOX achieve reductions largely through pre-existing rules and policies, with only relatively modest additional changes occurring from the climate mitigation measures. The higher carbon tax scenario projects greater declines in CO2 and SO2 relative to the 2050 reference case, but electricity sector NOX increases. This is a result of reduced investments in power plant NOX controls in earlier years in anticipation of accelerated coal power plant retirements, energy penalties associated with carbon capture systems, and shifting of NOX emissions in later years from power plants subject to a regional NOX cap to those in regions not subject to the cap.

  7. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-01-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  8. Global climate impacts of country-level primary carbonaceous aerosol from solid-fuel cookstove emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacey, Forrest; Henze, Daven

    2015-11-01

    Cookstove use is globally one of the largest unregulated anthropogenic sources of primary carbonaceous aerosol. While reducing cookstove emissions through national-scale mitigation efforts has clear benefits for improving indoor and ambient air quality, and significant climate benefits from reduced green-house gas emissions, climate impacts associated with reductions to co-emitted black (BC) and organic carbonaceous aerosol are not well characterized. Here we attribute direct, indirect, semi-direct, and snow/ice albedo radiative forcing (RF) and associated global surface temperature changes to national-scale carbonaceous aerosol cookstove emissions. These results are made possible through the use of adjoint sensitivity modeling to relate direct RF and BC deposition to emissions. Semi- and indirect effects are included via global scaling factors, and bounds on these estimates are drawn from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. Absolute regional temperature potentials are used to estimate global surface temperature changes. Bounds are placed on these estimates, drawing from current literature ranges for aerosol RF along with a range of solid fuel emissions characterizations. We estimate a range of 0.16 K warming to 0.28 K cooling with a central estimate of 0.06 K cooling from the removal of cookstove aerosol emissions. At the national emissions scale, countries’ impacts on global climate range from net warming (e.g., Mexico and Brazil) to net cooling, although the range of estimated impacts for all countries span zero given uncertainties in RF estimates and fuel characterization. We identify similarities and differences in the sets of countries with the highest emissions and largest cookstove temperature impacts (China, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nepal), those with the largest temperature impact per carbon emitted (Kazakhstan, Estonia, and Mongolia), and those that would provide the

  9. Climate-driven changes to the spatio-temporal distribution of the parasitic nematode, Haemonchus contortus, in sheep in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rose, Hannah; Caminade, Cyril; Bolajoko, Muhammad Bashir; Phelan, Paul; van Dijk, Jan; Baylis, Matthew; Williams, Diana; Morgan, Eric R

    2016-03-01

    Recent climate change has resulted in changes to the phenology and distribution of invertebrates worldwide. Where invertebrates are associated with disease, climate variability and changes in climate may also affect the spatio-temporal dynamics of disease. Due to its significant impact on sheep production and welfare, the recent increase in diagnoses of ovine haemonchosis caused by the nematode Haemonchus contortus in some temperate regions is particularly concerning. This study is the first to evaluate the impact of climate change on H. contortus at a continental scale. A model of the basic reproductive quotient of macroparasites, Q0 , adapted to H. contortus and extended to incorporate environmental stochasticity and parasite behaviour, was used to simulate Pan-European spatio-temporal changes in H. contortus infection pressure under scenarios of climate change. Baseline Q0 simulations, using historic climate observations, reflected the current distribution of H. contortus in Europe. In northern Europe, the distribution of H. contortus is currently limited by temperatures falling below the development threshold during the winter months and within-host arrested development is necessary for population persistence over winter. In southern Europe, H. contortus infection pressure is limited during the summer months by increased temperature and decreased moisture. Compared with this baseline, Q0 simulations driven by a climate model ensemble predicted an increase in H. contortus infection pressure by the 2080s. In northern Europe, a temporal range expansion was predicted as the mean period of transmission increased by 2-3 months. A bimodal seasonal pattern of infection pressure, similar to that currently observed in southern Europe, emerges in northern Europe due to increasing summer temperatures and decreasing moisture. The predicted patterns of change could alter the epidemiology of H. contortus in Europe, affect the future sustainability of contemporary

  10. Proposal for new climate agreements: Economic growth determines the emission quota

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kallbekken, Steffen; Tjernshaugen, Andreas

    2002-01-01

    Long-term obligations to curb the emission of climate gases involve economic uncertainty because it is difficult to determine the cost of future reductions. This may be the principle reason why the USA and the developing countries are reluctant to accept binding demands on their emissions of climate gases. For example, the commitments of the Kyoto Protocol were agreed upon more than ten years before they shall be put to force. Over such a long time span it is impossible to predict the development of the economy as well as the gas emissions. Usually economical development leads to increased gas emission. If a country commits itself to a quantified limit on its emission, and the economical development turns out to be much faster than predicted, then living up to the commitments may be very expensive. The same is true if the economic growth occurs in the polluting sectors to a larger degree than expected. Many heads of state thus fear that binding emission targets may restrain economic growth

  11. Effects of climate-induced changes in isoprene emissions after the eruption of Mount Pinatubo

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. J. Telford

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available In the 1990s the rates of increase of greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably of methane, were observed to change, for reasons that have yet to be fully determined. This period included the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo and an El Niño warm event, both of which affect biogeochemical processes, by changes in temperature, precipitation and radiation. We examine the impact of these changes in climate on global isoprene emissions and the effect these climate dependent emissions have on the hydroxy radical, OH, the dominant sink for methane. We model a reduction of isoprene emissions in the early 1990s, with a maximum decrease of 40 Tg(C/yr in late 1992 and early 1993, a change of 9%. This reduction is caused by the cooler, drier conditions following the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Isoprene emissions are reduced both directly, by changes in temperature and a soil moisture dependent suppression factor, and indirectly, through reductions in the total biomass. The reduction in isoprene emissions causes increases of tropospheric OH which lead to an increased sink for methane of up to 5 Tg(CH4/year, comparable to estimated source changes over the time period studied. There remain many uncertainties in the emission and oxidation of isoprene which may affect the exact size of this effect, but its magnitude is large enough that it should remain important.

  12. The Implications of Intermediate Stop Operations on Aviation Emissions and Climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florian Linke

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Among the various transport modes aviation's impact on climate change deserves special attention. Due to typical flight altitudes in the upper troposphere and above, the effect of aircraft engine emissions like e.g. water vapour, nitrogen oxides and aerosols on radiative forcing agents is substantial. The projected doubling of aircraft movements in the next 15 years will lead to an increase of aviation's impact on climate and requires immediate mitigation options. Besides technological measures also new operational strategies are widely discussed; one of these concepts which has been subject of several studies in the past is Intermediate Stop Operations (ISO. It is based on the idea to reduce the stage length of flights by performing one or more intermediate landings during a mission. Here, we analyse the ISO concept by combining different models, which include a realistic traffic simulation taking into account operational constraints and ambient conditions, like e.g. wind, the calculation of engine emissions and the integration of a climate response model. We analyse the ISO concept for today's worldwide aircraft fleet, including its influence on global emissions distributions as well as the impact on climate change by taking into account CO2 and non-CO2 effects, arising from contrail-cirrus, water vapour and nitrogen oxide emissions. We show in agreement with earlier findings that due to shorter flight distances the amount of fuel burnt over the mission can be reduced by roughly 5 % on average globally. For the first time, we quantify the climate impact of ISO, where the flight trajectory is optimised for fuel use and the aircraft is not redesigned for the ISO procedure. We find an increased warming effect, which arises from nitrogen oxide and water vapour emissions, which are released at higher cruise altitudes and which over-compensate reduced warming effects from CO2 and contrail-cirrus. However, we expect a climate impact reduction for

  13. Added value. Collaboration on mitigating climate change in coastal towns by community driven processes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mechlenborg, Mette; Hansen, Jesper Rohr

    2018-01-01

    How should the collaborations between private and public landowners be organized and driven in order to make the mitigation of coastal towns and lines more innovative, economic and environmental sustainable?......How should the collaborations between private and public landowners be organized and driven in order to make the mitigation of coastal towns and lines more innovative, economic and environmental sustainable?...

  14. Transient Climate Impacts for Scenarios of Aerosol Emissions from Asia: A Story of Coal versus Gas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grandey, B. S.; Cheng, H.; Wang, C.

    2014-12-01

    Projections of anthropogenic aerosol emissions are uncertain. In Asia, it is possible that emissions may increase if business continues as usual, with economic growth driving an increase in coal burning. But it is also possible that emissions may decrease rapidly due to the widespread adoption of cleaner technology or a shift towards non-coal fuels, such as natural gas. In this study, the transient climate impacts of three aerosol emissions scenarios are investigated: an RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) control; a scenario with reduced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions; and a scenario with enhanced Asian anthropogenic aerosol emissions. A coupled atmosphere-ocean configuration of CESM (Community Earth System Model), including CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5), is used. Enhanced Asian aerosol emissions are found to delay global mean warming by one decade at the end of the century. Aerosol-induced suppression of the East Asian and South Asian summer monsoon precipitation occurs. The enhanced Asian aerosol emissions also remotely impact precipitation in other parts of the world: over the Sahel, West African monsoon precipitation is suppressed; and over Australia, austral summer monsoon precipitation is enhanced. These remote impacts on precipitation are associated with a southward shift of the ITCZ. The aerosol-induced sea surface temperature (SST) response appears to play an important role in the precipitation changes over South Asia and Australia, but not over East Asia. These results indicate that energy production in Asia, through the consequent aerosol emissions and associated radiative effects, might significantly influence future climate both locally and globally.

  15. Climate-Driven Changes Within the Larch Forest of Northern Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharuk, V.

    2015-12-01

    Thanks to the support of NASA's Carbon Cycle and Ecosystem Focus Area programs, joint NASA/ Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences studies have been conducted throughout Siberia. The overall objective has been to obtain field and satellite measurements to examine carbon stocks and track changes in forests across this vast area. In this presentation, we discuss some of the finding from this 25+ year collaboration' i.e., observed climate-driven changes within larch communities in northern Siberia. Field measurements and satellite data, including Terra/MODIS, Landsat, GRACE and QuickBird were used for analysis of forest conditions. The following results will be discussed. (1). At the northern limit of larch (Larix gmelinii) range (i.e.,~72°N) tree mortality was observed during the cooling period from the 16th century to the beginning of the 19th century. Post- Little Ice Age (LIA) trees re-establishment followed warming temperatures by the middle of the19th century. The current tree line has recovered to the pre-LIA line location although tree heights and stand densities are comparatively lower. The mean rate of upward migration was found to be 0.35 m yr-1 (with a range of 0.21-0.58). (2) The migration of the "dark needle conifers" (DNC: Abies sibirica, Pinus sibirica, Picea obovata) into the southern margin zone of larch dominated forest was documented. Meanwhile, within the traditional DNC range decline and mortality of both Siberian pine and fir were observed and attributed, primarily, due to an increased drought. (3) Within Central Siberia larch growth is limited by early summer temperatures and available water from thawing permafrost. Larch tree ring width (TRW) correlated with early summer temperatures and water vapor pressure (r = 0.73 and r = 0.69, respectively), drought (SPEI; r = 0.68-0.82), snow accumulation (r = 0.61), previous year precipitation (r = 0.63) and soil water anomalies (r = 0.79). Larch TRW growth and Gross Primary Productivity

  16. High Altitude Emissions of Black Carbon Aerosols: Potential Climate Implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satheesh, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Synthesizing a series of ground-based and airborne measurements of aerosols over the Indian region during summer and pre-monsoon seasons have revealed the persistence of elevated absorbing aerosol layers over most of the Indian region; more than 50% of which located above clouds. Subsequent, in situ measurements of black carbon (BC) using high-altitude balloons, showed surprising layers with high concentrations in the middle and upper troposphere even at an altitude of 8 to 10 kms. Simultaneous measurements of the vertical thermal structure have shown localized warming due to BC absorption leading to large reduction in lapse rate and sharp temperature inversion, which in turn increases the atmospheric stability. This aerosol-induced stable layer is conducive for maintaining the black carbon layer longer at that level, leading thereby to further solar absorption and subsequently triggering dry convection. These observations support the `solar escalator' concept through which absorption-warming-convection cycles lead to self-lifting of BC to upper troposphere or even to lower stratosphere under favorable conditions in a matter of a few days. Employing an on-line regional chemistry transport model (WRF-Chem), incorporating aircraft emissions, it is shown that emissions from high-flying aircrafts as the most likely source of these elevated black carbon layers. These in-situ injected particles, produce significant warming of the thin air in those heights and lift these layers to even upper tropospheric/lower stratospheric heights, aided by the strong monsoonal convection occurring over the region, which are known to overshoot the tropical tropopause leading to injection of tropospheric air mass (along with its constituent aerosols) into the stratosphere, especially during monsoon season when the tropical tropopause layer is known to be thinnest. These simulations are further supported by the CALIPSO space-borne LIDAR derived extinction coefficient profiles. Based on

  17. Operation of marine diesel engines on biogenic fuels: modification of emissions and resulting climate effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petzold, Andreas; Lauer, Peter; Fritsche, Uwe; Hasselbach, Jan; Lichtenstern, Michael; Schlager, Hans; Fleischer, Fritz

    2011-12-15

    The modification of emissions of climate-sensitive exhaust compounds such as CO(2), NO(x), hydrocarbons, and particulate matter from medium-speed marine diesel engines was studied for a set of fossil and biogenic fuels. Applied fossil fuels were the reference heavy fuel oil (HFO) and the low-sulfur marine gas oil (MGO); biogenic fuels were palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and animal fat. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the production of biogenic fuels were treated by means of a fuel life cycle analysis which included land use changes associated with the growth of energy plants. Emissions of CO(2) and NO(x) per kWh were found to be similar for fossil fuels and biogenic fuels. PM mass emission was reduced to 10-15% of HFO emissions for all low-sulfur fuels including MGO as a fossil fuel. Black carbon emissions were reduced significantly to 13-30% of HFO. Changes in emissions were predominantly related to particulate sulfate, while differences between low-sulfur fossil fuels and low-sulfur biogenic fuels were of minor significance. GHG emissions from the biogenic fuel life cycle (FLC) depend crucially on energy plant production conditions and have the potential of shifting the overall GHG budget from positive to negative compared to fossil fuels.

  18. Great expectations. Can international emissions trading deliver an equitable climate regime?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baumert, Kevin A.; Perkaus, James F.; Kete, Nancy

    2003-01-01

    Climate change equity debates tend to focus on achieving a fair and global 'allocation' of emission rights among countries. Allocation proposals typically envision, if implicitly, two purposes for international emissions trading. First, trading is expected to serve as a cost-effective means of promoting compliance with emissions targets. Second, trading is posited as a means to generate financial transfers, typically from industrialized to transitioning and developing countries. This article investigates the common assumption that international emissions trading will effectively serve both of these purposes. We conclude that the two purposes might not be mutually supportive, and that efforts to use international emissions trading as a financial transfer mechanism may potentially undermine cost-effectiveness goals. International emissions trading on a global scale would create new risks in terms of both cost-effectiveness and environmental performance, some of which will be challenging to manage. In particular, uncertainties over market prices and trading eligibility, coupled with the costs of participation, may together be the Achilles heel of some allocation proposals that entail large financial transfers from industrialized to developing countries. Any proposal for an 'equitable' allocation of emission allowances, we conclude, must be cognizant of the risks and costs implied by a reliance on international emissions trading. We offer some suggestions to this end

  19. Assessing the implications of human land-use change for the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmons, C T; Matthews, H D

    2016-01-01

    Recent research has shown evidence of a linear climate response to cumulative CO 2 emissions, which implies that the source, timing, and amount of emissions does not significantly influence the climate response per unit emission. Furthermore, these analyses have generally assumed that the climate response to land-use CO 2 emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuels under the assumption that, once in the atmosphere, the radiative forcing induced by CO 2 is not sensitive to the emissions source. However, land-cover change also affects surface albedo and the strength of terrestrial carbon sinks, both of which have an additional climate effect. In this study, we use a coupled climate-carbon cycle model to assess the climate response to historical and future cumulative land-use CO 2 emissions, in order to compare it to the response to fossil fuel CO 2 . We find that when we isolate the CO 2 -induced (biogeochemical) temperature changes associated with land-use change, then the climate response to cumulative land-use emissions is equivalent to that of fossil fuel CO 2 . We show further that the globally-averaged albedo-induced biophysical cooling from land-use change is non-negligible and may be of comparable magnitude to the biogeochemical warming, with the result that the net climate response to land-use change is substantially different from a linear response to cumulative emissions. However, our new simulations suggest that the biophysical cooling from land-use change follows its own independent (negative) linear response to cumulative net land-use CO 2 emissions, which may provide a useful scaling factor for certain applications when evaluating the full transient climate response to emissions. (letter)

  20. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huebler, Michael [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany); Hannover Univ. (Germany). Inst. for Environmental Economics and World Trade; Loeschel, Andreas; Voigt, Sebastian [Zentrum fuer Europaeische Wirtschaftsforschung GmbH (ZEW), Mannheim (Germany)

    2014-07-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  1. Climate and mortality changes due to reductions in household cooking emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bergman, Tommi; Mielonen, Tero; Arola, Antti; Kokkola, Harri

    2016-04-01

    Household cooking is a significant cause for health and environmental problems in the developing countries. There are more than 3 billion people who use biomass for fuel in cooking stoves in their daily life. These cooking stoves use inadequate ventilation and expose especially women and children to indoor smoke. To reduce problems of the biomass burning, India launched an initiative to provide affordable and clean energy solutions for the poorest households by providing clean next-generation cooking stoves. The improved cooking stoves are expected to improve outdoor air quality and to reduce the climate-active pollutants, thus simultaneously slowing the climate change. Previous research has shown that the emissions of black carbon can be decreased substantially, as much as 90 % by applying better technology in cooking stoves. We have implemented reasonable (50% decrease) and best case (90% decrease) scenarios of the reductions in black and organic carbon due to improved cooking stoves in India into ECHAM-HAMMOZ aerosol-climate model. The global simulations of the scenarios will be used to study how the reductions of emissions in India affect the pollutant concentrations and radiation. The simulated reductions in particulate concentrations will also be used to estimate the decrease in mortality rates. Furthermore, we will study how the emission reductions would affect the global climate and mortality if a similar initiative would be applied in other developing countries.

  2. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China. An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huebler, Michael

    2014-01-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely.

  3. Spatially explicit integrated modeling and economic valuation of climate driven land use change and its indirect effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bateman, Ian; Agarwala, Matthew; Binner, Amy; Coombes, Emma; Day, Brett; Ferrini, Silvia; Fezzi, Carlo; Hutchins, Michael; Lovett, Andrew; Posen, Paulette

    2016-10-01

    We present an integrated model of the direct consequences of climate change on land use, and the indirect effects of induced land use change upon the natural environment. The model predicts climate-driven shifts in the profitability of alternative uses of agricultural land. Both the direct impact of climate change and the induced shift in land use patterns will cause secondary effects on the water environment, for which agriculture is the major source of diffuse pollution. We model the impact of changes in such pollution on riverine ecosystems showing that these will be spatially heterogeneous. Moreover, we consider further knock-on effects upon the recreational benefits derived from water environments, which we assess using revealed preference methods. This analysis permits a multi-layered examination of the economic consequences of climate change, assessing the sequence of impacts from climate change through farm gross margins, land use, water quality and recreation, both at the individual and catchment scale. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon Mark Scriber

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Comprising 50%–75% of the world’s fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including “invasive species” in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. “Invasive genes” (into new species and populations need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. “Genetic rescue” via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes and recent (3-decade climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced “reshuffling” (recombinations of species composition, genotypes

  5. Climate-Driven Reshuffling of Species and Genes: Potential Conservation Roles for Species Translocations and Recombinant Hybrid Genotypes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scriber, Jon Mark

    2013-12-24

    Comprising 50%-75% of the world's fauna, insects are a prominent part of biodiversity in communities and ecosystems globally. Biodiversity across all levels of biological classifications is fundamentally based on genetic diversity. However, the integration of genomics and phylogenetics into conservation management may not be as rapid as climate change. The genetics of hybrid introgression as a source of novel variation for ecological divergence and evolutionary speciation (and resilience) may generate adaptive potential and diversity fast enough to respond to locally-altered environmental conditions. Major plant and herbivore hybrid zones with associated communities deserve conservation consideration. This review addresses functional genetics across multi-trophic-level interactions including "invasive species" in various ecosystems as they may become disrupted in different ways by rapid climate change. "Invasive genes" (into new species and populations) need to be recognized for their positive creative potential and addressed in conservation programs. "Genetic rescue" via hybrid translocations may provide needed adaptive flexibility for rapid adaptation to environmental change. While concerns persist for some conservationists, this review emphasizes the positive aspects of hybrids and hybridization. Specific implications of natural genetic introgression are addressed with a few examples from butterflies, including transgressive phenotypes and climate-driven homoploid recombinant hybrid speciation. Some specific examples illustrate these points using the swallowtail butterflies (Papilionidae) with their long-term historical data base (phylogeographical diversity changes) and recent (3-decade) climate-driven temporal and genetic divergence in recombinant homoploid hybrids and relatively recent hybrid speciation of Papilio appalachiensis in North America. Climate-induced "reshuffling" (recombinations) of species composition, genotypes, and genomes may become

  6. Confronting the climate change challenge: discussing the role of rural India under cumulative emission budget approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaechele, Harald; Amjath-Babu, T.S.; Kutter, Thomas; Specht, Kathrin; Nautiyal, Sunil; Müller, Klaus; Raju, K.V.

    2011-01-01

    Current global climate policy architecture does not aim at stabilizing the greenhouse gases concentration in the atmosphere that may achieve the proclaimed 2 °C guard rail. An alternative approach that targets on limiting the global cumulative emission to accomplish such an outcome is put forward by German Advisory Board of Global Change (WBGU). This research work further elaborates the approach and its flexibility instrument i.e. carbon trading. As the approach visualises sharing of the carbon budget (750Gt CO 2 ) equally to every human being (2.7 t CO 2 per capita), India is the country with largest tradable surplus reflecting its low emission per capita and large population. The research work further analyzes the emission profile of rural India and the significance of its future emission pathways within the proposed framework. It also shows how low carbon development in India can assist in cost effective decarbonization of industrialized countries and mitigation of climate change, given a global climate treaty based on the WBGU approach.

  7. Time-dependent climate sensitivity and the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeebe, Richard E

    2013-08-20

    Climate sensitivity measures the response of Earth's surface temperature to changes in forcing. The response depends on various climate processes that feed back on the initial forcing on different timescales. Understanding climate sensitivity is fundamental to reconstructing Earth's climatic history as well as predicting future climate change. On timescales shorter than centuries, only fast climate feedbacks including water vapor, lapse rate, clouds, and snow/sea ice albedo are usually considered. However, on timescales longer than millennia, the generally higher Earth system sensitivity becomes relevant, including changes in ice sheets, vegetation, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, etc. Here, I introduce the time-dependent climate sensitivity, which unifies fast-feedback and Earth system sensitivity. I show that warming projections, which include a time-dependent climate sensitivity, exhibit an enhanced feedback between surface warming and ocean CO2 solubility, which in turn leads to higher atmospheric CO2 levels and further warming. Compared with earlier studies, my results predict a much longer lifetime of human-induced future warming (23,000-165,000 y), which increases the likelihood of large ice sheet melting and major sea level rise. The main point regarding the legacy of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is that, even if the fast-feedback sensitivity is no more than 3 K per CO2 doubling, there will likely be additional long-term warming from slow climate feedbacks. Time-dependent climate sensitivity also helps explaining intense and prolonged warming in response to massive carbon release as documented for past events such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum.

  8. Modelling climate change under no-policy and policy emissions pathways

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wigley, T.M.L.

    2003-01-01

    Future emissions under the SRES scenarios are described as examples of no-climate-policy scenarios. The production of policy scenarios is guided by Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, which requires stabilization of greenhouse-gas concentrations. It is suggested that the choice of stabilization targets should be governed by the need to avoid dangerous interference with the climate system, while the choice of the pathway towards a given target should be determined by some form of cost-benefit analysis. The WRE (Wigley, Richels and Edmonds) concentration profiles are given as examples of stabilization pathways, and an alternative 'overshoot' pathway is introduced. Probabilistic projections (as probability density functions - pdfs) for global-mean temperature under the SRES scenarios are given. The relative importance of different sources of uncertainty is determined by removing individual sources of uncertainty and examining the change in the output temperature pdf. Emissions and climate sensitivity uncertainties dominate, while carbon cycle, aerosol forcing and ocean mixing uncertainties are shown to be small. It is shown that large uncertainties remain even if the emissions are prescribed. Uncertainties in regional climate change are defined by comparing normalized changes (i.e., changes per 1C global-mean warming) across multiple models and using the inter-model standard deviation as an uncertainty metric. Global-mean temperature projections for the policy case are given using the WRE profiles. Different stabilization targets are considered, and the overshoot case for 550ppm stabilization is used to quantify the effects of pathway differences. It is shown that large emissions reductions (from the no-policy to the policy case) will lead to only relatively small reductions in warming over the next 100 years

  9. Impact of Future Emissions and Climate Change on Surface Ozone over China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, C. T.; Westervelt, D. M.; Fiore, A. M.; Rieder, H. E.; Kinney, P.; Wang, S.; Correa, G. J. P.

    2017-12-01

    China's immense ambient air pollution problem and world-leading greenhouse gas emissions place it at the forefront of global efforts to address these related environmental concerns. Here, we analyze the impact of ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants) future emissions scenarios representative of current legislation (CLE) and maximum technically feasible emissions reductions (MFR) on surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China in the 2030s and 2050s, in the context of a changing climate. We use a suite of simulations performed with the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's AM3 global chemistry-climate model. To estimate the impact of climate change in isolation on Chinese air quality, we hold emissions of air pollutants including O3 precursors fixed at 2015 levels but allow climate (global sea surface temperatures and sea ice cover) to change according to decadal averages for the years 2026-2035 and 2046-2055 from a three-member ensemble of GFDL-CM3 simulations under the RCP8.5 high warming scenario. Evaluation of the present-day simulation (2015 CLE) with observations from 1497 chiefly urban air quality monitoring stations shows that simulated surface O3 is positively biased by 26 ppb on average over the domain of China. Previous studies, however, have shown that the modeled ozone response to changes in NOx emissions over the Eastern United States mirrors the magnitude and structure of observed changes in maximum daily average 8-hour (MDA8) O3 distributions. Therefore, we use the model's simulated changes for the 2030s and 2050s to project changes in policy-relevant MDA8 O3 concentrations. We find an overall increase in MDA8 O3 for CLE scenarios in which emissions of NOx precursors are projected to increase, and under MFR scenarios, an overall decrease, with the highest changes occurring in summertime for both 2030 and 2050 MFR. Under climate change alone, the model simulates a mean summertime decrease of 1.3 ppb

  10. Modeling climatic effects of anthropogenic CO2 emissions: Unknowns and uncertainties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soon, W.; Baliunas, S.; Idso, S.; Kondratyev, K. Ya.; Posmentier, E. S.

    2001-12-01

    A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent, substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply-interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 years, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly-held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the positive skills of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations

  11. Carbon dioxide emissions and climate change: policy implications for the cement industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rehan, R.; Nehdi, M.

    2005-01-01

    There is growing awareness that the cement industry is a significant contributor to global carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions. It is expected that this industry will come under increasing regulatory pressures to reduce its emissions and contribute more aggressively to mitigating global warming. It is important that the industry's stakeholders become more familiar with greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and associated global warming issues, along with emerging policies that may affect the future of the industry. This paper discusses climate change, the current and proposed actions for mitigating its effects, and the implications of such actions for the cement industry. International negotiations on climate change are summarized and mechanisms available under the Kyoto Protocol for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are explained. The paper examines some of the traditional and emerging policy instruments for greenhouse gas emissions and analyses their merits and drawbacks. The applicability, effectiveness and potential impact of these policy instruments for the global cement industry in general and the Canadian cement industry in particular are discussed with recommendations for possible courses of action

  12. Strong atmospheric chemistry feedback to climate warming from Arctic methane emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isaksen, Ivar S.A.; Gauss, Michael; Myhre, Gunnar; Walter Anthony, Katey M.; Ruppel, Carolyn

    2011-01-01

    The magnitude and feedbacks of future methane release from the Arctic region are unknown. Despite limited documentation of potential future releases associated with thawing permafrost and degassing methane hydrates, the large potential for future methane releases calls for improved understanding of the interaction of a changing climate with processes in the Arctic and chemical feedbacks in the atmosphere. Here we apply a “state of the art” atmospheric chemistry transport model to show that large emissions of CH4 would likely have an unexpectedly large impact on the chemical composition of the atmosphere and on radiative forcing (RF). The indirect contribution to RF of additional methane emission is particularly important. It is shown that if global methane emissions were to increase by factors of 2.5 and 5.2 above current emissions, the indirect contributions to RF would be about 250% and 400%, respectively, of the RF that can be attributed to directly emitted methane alone. Assuming several hypothetical scenarios of CH4 release associated with permafrost thaw, shallow marine hydrate degassing, and submarine landslides, we find a strong positive feedback on RF through atmospheric chemistry. In particular, the impact of CH4 is enhanced through increase of its lifetime, and of atmospheric abundances of ozone, stratospheric water vapor, and CO2 as a result of atmospheric chemical processes. Despite uncertainties in emission scenarios, our results provide a better understanding of the feedbacks in the atmospheric chemistry that would amplify climate warming.

  13. Emissions associated with meeting the future global wheat demand: A case study of UK production under climate change constraints

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Röder, Mirjam; Thornley, Patricia; Campbell, Grant; Bows-Larkin, Alice

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Conflicts between adapting to climate change, food security and reducing emissions. • Climate change likely to limit wheat production in the southern hemisphere. • Climate change yield benefits marginally increase emissions per unit of product. • Improved yield will result in higher total production emissions. • Production-based inventories discourage an increase in production. - Abstract: Climate change, population growth and socio-structural changes will make meeting future food demands extremely challenging. As wheat is a globally traded food commodity central to the food security of many nations, this paper uses it as an example to explore the impact of climate change on global food supply and quantify the resulting greenhouse gas emissions. Published data on projected wheat production is used to analyse how global production can be increased to match projected demand. The results show that the largest projected wheat demand increases are in areas most likely to suffer severe climate change impacts, but that global demand could be met if northern hemisphere producers exploit climate change benefits to increase production and narrow their yield gaps. Life cycle assessment of different climate change scenarios shows that in the case of one of the most important wheat producers (the UK) it may be possible to improve yields with an increase of only 0.6% in the emission intensity per unit of wheat produced in a 2 °C scenario. However, UK production would need to rise substantially, increasing total UK wheat production emissions by 26%. This demonstrates how national emission inventories and associated targets do not incentivise minimisation of global greenhouse gas emissions while meeting increased food demands, highlighting a triad of challenges: meeting the rising demand for food, adapting to climate change and reducing emissions

  14. A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Forkel

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1. SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with

  15. A data-driven approach to identify controls on global fire activity from satellite and climate observations (SOFIA V1)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Forkel, Matthias; Dorigo, Wouter; Lasslop, Gitta; Teubner, Irene; Chuvieco, Emilio; Thonicke, Kirsten

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. However, the climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic factors that control global fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood, and in various complexities and formulations are represented in global process-oriented vegetation-fire models. Data-driven model approaches such as machine learning algorithms have successfully been used to identify and better understand controlling factors for fire activity. However, such machine learning models cannot be easily adapted or even implemented within process-oriented global vegetation-fire models. To overcome this gap between machine learning-based approaches and process-oriented global fire models, we introduce a new flexible data-driven fire modelling approach here (Satellite Observations to predict FIre Activity, SOFIA approach version 1). SOFIA models can use several predictor variables and functional relationships to estimate burned area that can be easily adapted with more complex process-oriented vegetation-fire models. We created an ensemble of SOFIA models to test the importance of several predictor variables. SOFIA models result in the highest performance in predicting burned area if they account for a direct restriction of fire activity under wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent restriction or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. We further analyse spatial patterns of the sensitivity between anthropogenic, climate, and vegetation predictor variables and burned area. We finally discuss how multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with data-driven

  16. Potential ecological and economic consequences of climate-driven agricultural and silvicultural transformations in central Siberia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, Nadezhda M.; Zander, Evgeniya V.; Pyzhev, Anton I.; Parfenova, Elena I.; Soja, Amber J.

    2014-05-01

    Increased warming predicted from general circulation models (GCMs) by the end of the century is expected to dramatically impact Siberian forests. Both natural climate-change-caused disturbance (weather, wildfire, infestation) and anthropogenic disturbance (legal/illegal logging) has increased, and their impact on Siberian boreal forest has been mounting over the last three decades. The Siberian BioClimatic Model (SiBCliM) was used to simulate Siberian forests, and the resultant maps show a severely decreased forest that has shifted northwards and a changed composition. Predicted dryer climates would enhance the risks of high fire danger and thawing permafrost, both of which challenge contemporary ecosystems. Our current goal is to evaluate the ecological and economic consequences of climate warming, to optimise economic loss/gain effects in forestry versus agriculture, to question the relative economic value of supporting forestry, agriculture or a mixed agro-forestry at the southern forest border in central Siberia predicted to undergo the most noticeable landcover and landuse changes. We developed and used forest and agricultural bioclimatic models to predict forest shifts; novel tree species and their climatypes are introduced in a warmer climate and/or potential novel agriculture are introduced with a potential variety of crops by the end of the century. We applied two strategies to estimate climate change effects, motivated by forest disturbance. One is a genetic means of assisting trees and forests to be harmonized with a changing climate by developing management strategies for seed transfer to locations that are best ecologically suited to the genotypes in future climates. The second strategy is the establishment of agricultural lands in new forest-steppe and steppe habitats, because the forests would retreat northwards. Currently, food, forage, and biofuel crops primarily reside in the steppe and forest-steppe zones which are known to have favorable

  17. Operation of Marine Diesel Engines on Biogenic Fuels: Modification of Emissions and Resulting Climate Effects

    OpenAIRE

    Petzold, A.; Lauer, P.; Fritsche, U.; Hasselbach, J.; Lichtenstern, M.; Schlager, H.; Fleischer, F.

    2011-01-01

    The modification of emissions of climate-sensitive exhaust compounds such as CO2, NOx, hydrocarbons, and particulate matter from medium-speed marine diesel engines was studied for a set of fossil and biogenic fuels. Applied fossil fuels were the reference heavy fuel oil (HFO) and the low-sulfur marine gas oil (MGO); biogenic fuels were palm oil, soybean oil, sunflower oil, and animal fat. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to the production of biogenic fuels were treated by means of a fue...

  18. [Spatiotemporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under future climate change].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jian-gong; Zhu, Qiu-an; Shen, Yan; Yang, Yan-zheng; Luo, Yun-peng; Peng, Chang-hui

    2015-11-01

    Based on a new process-based model, TRIPLEX-GHG, this paper analyzed the spatio-temporal variations of natural wetland CH4 emissions over China under different future climate change scenarios. When natural wetland distributions were fixed, the amount of CH4 emissions from natural wetland ecosystem over China would increase by 32.0%, 55.3% and 90.8% by the end of 21st century under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, compared with the current level. Southern China would have higher CH4 emissions compared to that from central and northern China. Besides, there would be relatively low emission fluxes in western China while relatively high emission fluxes in eastern China. Spatially, the areas with relatively high CH4 emission fluxes would be concentrated in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the Northeast and the coasts of the Pearl River. In the future, most natural wetlands would emit more CH4 for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 than that of 2005. However, under RCP2.6 scenario, the increasing trend would be curbed and CH4 emissions (especially from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau) begin to decrease in the late 21st century.

  19. The climate fund. Some notions on the socio-economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions and emission reductions in an international context

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, R.S.J.; Van der Burg, T.; Jansen, H.M.A.; Verbruggen, H.

    1995-05-01

    The title project investigates the possibility of setting up an international climate fund and the way in which this could be arranged. A climate fund is a potential method to enhance the efficiency and efficacy of the reduction of the increase in the amount of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere. It would allow countries to transfer capital, for instance through the here proposed climate fund, and to redistribute the damages caused by global warming. This project focuses on the economic aspects of a climate fund, although some attention will also be given to its political feasibility. The system of tradeable emission permits, of which joint implementation is often seen as a pilot phase, presumes that fixed emission targets exist. In this report the emissions are not prefixed, but optimised in a cost-benefit analysis in which the impact of international capital transfer is examined. In order to determine the impact of international capital transfer on the efficiency and efficacy on optimal greenhouse gas emission reduction, three building blocks are needed. The first block concerns the costs of climate change, or the benefits of climate change control. The second block concerns the costs of emission reduction. The third block is the model to integrate costs and benefits, and calculate the optimal emission control with and without international capital transfers. The project is split into four conceptual phases. In the first phase, a literature survey has been performed of the socio-economic costs and benefits of greenhouse gas emission reductions, with a particular focus on the international distribution of costs and benefits. In the second phase, the costs and benefits are modelled in the Climate Framework for Uncertainty, Negotiation and Distribution (FUND). In the third phase the optimal emission reductions are calculated with and without international capital transfers in several game-theoretic settings. (Abstract Truncated)

  20. The impact of residential combustion emissions on atmospheric aerosol, human health, and climate

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. W. Butt

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Combustion of fuels in the residential sector for cooking and heating results in the emission of aerosol and aerosol precursors impacting air quality, human health, and climate. Residential emissions are dominated by the combustion of solid fuels. We use a global aerosol microphysics model to simulate the impact of residential fuel combustion on atmospheric aerosol for the year 2000. The model underestimates black carbon (BC and organic carbon (OC mass concentrations observed over Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa, with better prediction when carbonaceous emissions from the residential sector are doubled. Observed seasonal variability of BC and OC concentrations are better simulated when residential emissions include a seasonal cycle. The largest contributions of residential emissions to annual surface mean particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations are simulated for East Asia, South Asia, and Eastern Europe. We use a concentration response function to estimate the human health impact due to long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 from residential emissions. We estimate global annual excess adult (>  30 years of age premature mortality (due to both cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer to be 308 000 (113 300–497 000, 5th to 95th percentile uncertainty range for monthly varying residential emissions and 517 000 (192 000–827 000 when residential carbonaceous emissions are doubled. Mortality due to residential emissions is greatest in Asia, with China and India accounting for 50 % of simulated global excess mortality. Using an offline radiative transfer model we estimate that residential emissions exert a global annual mean direct radiative effect between −66 and +21 mW m−2, with sensitivity to the residential emission flux and the assumed ratio of BC, OC, and SO2 emissions. Residential emissions exert a global annual mean first aerosol indirect effect of between −52 and −16 mW m−2, which is sensitive to the

  1. Climate-driven changes in the ecological stoichiometry of aquatic ecosystems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van de Waal, D.B.; Verschoor, A.M.; Verspagen, J.M.H.; van Donk, E.; Huisman, J.

    2010-01-01

    Advances in ecological stoichiometry, a rapidly expanding research field investigating the elemental composition of organisms and their environment, have shed new light on the impacts of climate change on freshwater and marine ecosystems. Current changes in the Earth's climate alter the availability

  2. Potential Climate-driven Silvicultural and Agricultural Transformations in Siberia in the 21 Century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tchebakova, N. M.; Parfenova, E. I.; Shvetsov, E.; Soja, A. J.

    2017-12-01

    Simulations of Siberian forests in a changing climate showed them to be changed in composition, decreased, and shifted northwards. Our goals were to evaluate the ecological consequences for the forests and agriculture in Siberia and to offer adaptive measures that may be undertaken to minimize negative consequences and maximize benefits from a rapidly changing environment in the socially important region of southern Siberia. We considered two strategies to estimate climate-change effects on potentially failing forests within an expanding forest-steppe ecotone. To support forestry, seed transfers from locations that are best suited to the genotypes in future climates may be applied to assist trees and forests in a changing climate. To support agriculture, in view of the growing world concerns on food safety, new farming lands may be established in a new forest-steppe ecotone with its favorable climatic and soil resources. We used our bioclimatic vegetation models of various levels: a forest type model to predict forest shifts and forest-failing lands, tree species range and their climatypes models to predict what tree species/climatype would be suitable and crop models to predict crops to introduce in potentially climate-disturbed areas in Siberia. Climate change data for the 2080s were calculated from the ensemble of 20 general circulation models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) and two scenarios to characterize the range of climate change: mild climate (RCP2.6 scenario) and sharp climate (RCP 8.5 scenario). By the 2080s, forest-steppe and steppe rather than forests would dominate up to half of Siberia in the warmer and dryer RCP 8.5 climate. Water stress tolerant and fire-resistant light-needled species Pinus sylvestris and Larix spp. would dominate the forest-steppe ecotone. Failing forests in a dryer climate may be maintained by moving and substituting proper climatypes from locations often hundreds of km away. Agriculture in Siberia

  3. Climate-Driven Risk of Large Fire Occurrence in the Western United States, 1500 to 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crockett, J.; Westerling, A. L.

    2017-12-01

    Spatially comprehensive fire climatology has provided managers with tools to understand thecauses and consequences of large forest wildfires, but a paleoclimate context is necessary foranticipating the trajectory of future climate-fire relationships. Although accumulated charcoalrecords and tree scars have been utilized in high resolution, regional fire reconstructions, there isuncertainty as to how current climate-fire relationships of the western United States (WUS) fitwithin the natural long-term variability. While contemporary PDSI falls within the naturalvariability of the past, contemporary temperatures skew higher. Here, we develop a WUSfire reconstruction by applying climate-fire-topography model built on the 1972 to 2003 periodto the past 500 years, validated by recently updated fire-scar histories from WUS forests. Theresultant narrative provides insight into changing climate-fire relationships during extendedperiods of high aridity and temperature, providing land managers with historical precedent toeffectively anticipate disturbances during future climate change.

  4. Responses of non-methane biogenic volatile organic compound emissions to climate change in boreal and subarctic ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Faubert, P.

    2010-07-01

    Non-methane biogenic volatile organic compound emissions (BVOCs) have important roles in the global atmospheric chemistry but their feedbacks to climate change are still unknown. This thesis reports one of the first estimates of BVOC emissions from boreal and subarctic ecosystems. Most importantly, this thesis assesses the BVOC emission responses to four effects of climate change in these ecosystems: (1) the direct effect of warming, and its indirect effects via (2) water table drawdown, (3) change in the vegetation composition, and (4) enhanced UV-B radiation. BVOC emissions were measured using a conventional chamber method in which the compounds were collected on adsorbent and later analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. On a subarctic heath, warming by only 1.9-2.5 degC doubled the monoterpene and sesquiterpene emissions. Such a high increase of BVOC emissions under a conservative warming cannot be predicted by the current models, which underlines the importance of a focus on BVOC emissions from the Subarctic under climate change. On a subarctic peatland, enhanced UV-B did not affect the BVOC emissions but the water table level exerted the major effect. The water table drawdown experimentally applied on boreal peatland microcosms decreased the emissions of monoterpenes and other VOCs (BVOCs with a lifetime>1 d) for the hollows (wet microsites) and that of all BVOC groups for the lawns (moderately wet microsites). The warming treatment applied on the lawn microcosms decreased the isoprene emission. The removal of vascular plants in the hummock (dry microsites) microcosms decreased the emissions of monoterpenes while the emissions between the microcosms covered with Sphagnum moss and bare peat were not different. In conclusion, the results presented in this thesis indicate that climate change has complex effects on the BVOC emissions. These results make a significant contribution to improving the modeling of BVOC emissions for a better understanding of

  5. Designing an emissions trading scheme for China—An up-to-date climate policy assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hübler, Michael; Voigt, Sebastian; Löschel, Andreas

    2014-01-01

    We assess recent Chinese climate policy proposals in a multi-region, multi-sector computable general equilibrium model with a Chinese carbon emissions trading scheme (ETS). When the emissions intensity per GDP in 2020 is required to be 45% lower than in 2005, the model simulations indicate that the climate policy induced welfare loss in 2020, measured as the level of GDP and welfare in 2020 under climate policy relative to their level under business-as-usual (BAU) in the same year, is about 1%. The Chinese welfare loss in 2020 slightly increases in the Chinese rate of economic growth in 2020. When keeping the emissions target fixed at the 2020 level after 2020 in absolute terms, the welfare loss will reach about 2% in 2030. If China's annual economic growth rate is 0.5 percentage points higher (lower), the climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 will rise (decline) by about 0.5 percentage points. Full auctioning of carbon allowances results in very similar macroeconomic effects as free allocation, but full auctioning leads to higher reductions in output than free allocation for ETS sectors. Linking the Chinese to the European ETS and restricting the transfer volume to one third of the EU's reduction effort creates at best a small benefit for China, yet with smaller sectoral output reductions than auctioning. These results highlight the importance of designing the Chinese ETS wisely. - Highlights: • 45% Chinese carbon intensity target for 2020 implemented via emissions trading. • 1% GDP/welfare loss in 2020 and 2% in 2030 for a fixed emissions target after 2020. • 0.5 percentage points higher (lower) growth, increases (decreases) climate policy-induced welfare loss in 2030 by about 0.5 percentage points. • Similar macroeconomic effects for free allocation and full auctioning, but higher reductions in output under full auctioning in ETS sectors. • Restricted linking to EU emissions trading creates at best a small benefit for China

  6. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Osadolor Ebhuoma

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA, and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI Web of KnowledgeSM databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

  7. Remote Sensing-Driven Climatic/Environmental Variables for Modelling Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebhuoma, Osadolor; Gebreslasie, Michael

    2016-06-14

    Malaria is a serious public health threat in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and its transmission risk varies geographically. Modelling its geographic characteristics is essential for identifying the spatial and temporal risk of malaria transmission. Remote sensing (RS) has been serving as an important tool in providing and assessing a variety of potential climatic/environmental malaria transmission variables in diverse areas. This review focuses on the utilization of RS-driven climatic/environmental variables in determining malaria transmission in SSA. A systematic search on Google Scholar and the Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Knowledge(SM) databases (PubMed, Web of Science and ScienceDirect) was carried out. We identified thirty-five peer-reviewed articles that studied the relationship between remotely-sensed climatic variable(s) and malaria epidemiological data in the SSA sub-regions. The relationship between malaria disease and different climatic/environmental proxies was examined using different statistical methods. Across the SSA sub-region, the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from either the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) or Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite sensors was most frequently returned as a statistically-significant variable to model both spatial and temporal malaria transmission. Furthermore, generalized linear models (linear regression, logistic regression and Poisson regression) were the most frequently-employed methods of statistical analysis in determining malaria transmission predictors in East, Southern and West Africa. By contrast, multivariate analysis was used in Central Africa. We stress that the utilization of RS in determining reliable malaria transmission predictors and climatic/environmental monitoring variables would require a tailored approach that will have cognizance of the geographical/climatic

  8. Optical emission spectroscopy at the large RF driven negative ion test facility ELISE: Instrumental setup and first results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wünderlich, D.; Fantz, U.; Franzen, P.; Riedl, R.; Bonomo, F.

    2013-01-01

    One of the main topics to be investigated at the recently launched large (A source = 1.0 × 0.9 m 2 ) ITER relevant RF driven negative ion test facility ELISE (Extraction from a Large Ion Source Experiment) is the connection between the homogeneity of the plasma parameters close to the extraction system and the homogeneity of the extracted negative hydrogen ion beam. While several diagnostics techniques are available for measuring the beam homogeneity, the plasma parameters are determined by optical emission spectroscopy (OES) solely. First OES measurements close to the extraction system show that without magnetic filter field the vertical profile of the plasma emission is more or less symmetric, with maxima of the emission representing the projection of the plasma generation volumes, and a distinct minimum in between. The profile changes with the strength of the magnetic filter field but under all circumstances the plasma emission in ELISE is much more homogeneous compared to the smaller IPP prototype sources. Planned after this successful demonstration of the ELISE OES system is to combine OES with tomography in order to determine locally resolved values for the plasma parameters

  9. Hydrological simulations driven by RCM climate scenarios at basin scale in the Po River, Italy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Vezzoli

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available River discharges are the main expression of the hydrological cycle and are the results of climate natural variability. The signal of climate changes occurrence raises the question of how it will impact on river flows and on their extreme manifestations: floods and droughts. This question can be addressed through numerical simulations spanning from the past (1971 to future (2100 under different climate change scenarios. This work addresses the capability of a modelling chain to reproduce the observed discharge of the Po River over the period 1971–2000. The modelling chain includes climate and hydrological/hydraulic models and its performance is evaluated through indices based on the flow duration curve. The climate datasets used for the 1971–2000 period are (a a high resolution observed climate dataset, and COSMO-CLM regional climate model outputs with (b perfect boundary condition, ERA40 Reanalysis, and (c suboptimal boundary conditions provided by the global climate model CMCC–CM. The aim of the different simulations is to evaluate how the uncertainties introduced by the choice of the regional and/or global climate models propagate in the simulated discharges. This point is relevant to interpret the results of the simulated discharges when scenarios for the future are considered. The hydrological/hydraulic components are simulated through a physically-based distributed model (TOPKAPI and a water balance model at the basin scale (RIBASIM. The aim of these first simulations is to quantify the uncertainties introduced by each component of the modelling chain and their propagation. Estimation of the overall uncertainty is relevant to correctly understand the future river flow regimes. The results show how bias correction algorithms can help in reducing the overall uncertainty associated to the different stages of the modelling chain.

  10. Alternatives to the Global Warming Potential for Comparing Climate Impacts of Emissions of Greenhouse Gases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shine, Keith P.; Fuglestvedt, J.S.; Hailemariam, K.; Stuber, N.

    2005-01-01

    The Global Warming Potential (GWP) is used within the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change as a metric for weighting the climatic impact of emissions of different greenhouse gases. The GWP has been subjected to many criticisms because of its formulation, but nevertheless it has retained some favour because of the simplicity of its design and application, and its transparency compared to proposed alternatives. Here, two new metrics are proposed, which are based on a simple analytical climate model. The first metric is called the Global Temperature Change Potential and represents the temperature change at a given time due to a pulse emission of a gas (GTPP); the second is similar but represents the effect of a sustained emission change (hence GTPS). Both GTPP and GTPS are presented as relative to the temperature change due to a similar emission change of a reference gas, here taken to be carbon dioxide. Both metrics are compared against an upwelling-diffusion energy balance model that resolves land and ocean and the hemispheres. The GTPP does not perform well, compared to the energy balance model, except for long-lived gases. By contrast, the GTPS is shown to perform well relative to the energy balance model, for gases with a wide variety of lifetimes. It is also shown that for time horizons in excess of about 100 years, the GTPS and GWP produce very similar results, indicating an alternative interpretation for the GWP. The GTPS retains the advantage of the GWP in terms of transparency, and the relatively small number of input parameters required for calculation. However, it has an enhanced relevance, as it is further down the cause-effect chain of the impacts of greenhouse gases emissions and has an unambiguous interpretation. It appears to be robust to key uncertainties and simplifications in its derivation and may be an attractive alternative to the GWP

  11. Aerosol exposure versus aerosol cooling of climate: what is the optimal emission reduction strategy for human health?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Löndahl

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Particles, climate change, and health have thought-provoking interactions. Air pollution is one of the largest environmental problems concerning human health. On the other hand, aerosol particles can have a cooling effect on climate and a reduction of those emissions may result in an increased temperature globally, which in turn may have negative health effects. The objective of this work was to investigate the "total health effects" of aerosol emissions, which include both exposure to particles and consequences for climate change initiated by particles. As a case study the "total health effect" from ship emissions was derived by subtracting the number of deaths caused by exposure with the estimated number of lives saved from the cooling effect of the emissions. The analysis showed that, with current level of scientific understanding, it could not be determined whether ship emissions are negative or positive for human health on a short time scale. This first attempt to approximate the combined effect of particle emissions on health shows that reductions of particulate air pollution will in some cases (black carbon have win-win effects on health and climate, but sometimes also cause a shift from particle exposure-related health effects towards an increasing risk of health consequences from climate change. Thus, measures to reduce aerosol emissions have to be coupled with climate change mitigation actions to achieve a full health benefit on a global level.

  12. CO2 emissions driven by wind are produced at global scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosario Moya, M.; Sánchez-Cañete, Enrique P.; Kowalski, Andrew S.; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; López-Ballesteros, Ana; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Domingo, Francisco

    2017-04-01

    As an important tool for understanding and monitoring ecosystem dynamics at ecosystem level, the eddy covariance (EC) technique allows the assessment of the diurnal and seasonal variation of the net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Despite the high temporal resolution data, there are still many processes (in addition to photosynthesis and respiration) that, although they are being monitored, have been neglected. Only a few authors have studied anomalous CO2 emissions (non biological), and have related them to soil ventilation, photodegradation or geochemical processes. The aims of this study are: 1) to identify anomalous daytime CO2 emissions in different ecosystems distributed around the world, 2) to determine the meteorological variables that influence these emissions, and 3) to explore the potential processes which can be involved. We have studied EC data together with other meteorological ancillary variables obtained from the FLUXNET database and have found more than 50 sites with anomalous CO2 emissions in different ecosystem types such as grasslands, croplands or savannas. Data were filtered according to the FLUXNET quality control flags (only data with maximum quality were used, i.e. control flag equal to 0) and daytime (shortwave radiation incoming > 50 W m-2). Partial Spearman correlation analyses were performed between NEE and ancillary data: air temperature, vapour pressure deficit, soil temperature, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, soil water content, incoming photosynthetic photon flux density, friction velocity and net radiation. When necessary, ancillary variables were gap-filled using the MDS method (Reichstein et al. 2005). Preliminary results showed strong and highly significant correlations between friction velocity and anomalous CO2 emissions, suggesting that these emissions were mainly produced by ventilation events. Anomalous CO2 emissions were found mainly in arid ecosystems and sites with hot and dry summers. We suggest that anomalous CO2

  13. A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glomsrød, Solveig; Wei, Taoyuan; Aamaas, Borgar; Lund, Marianne T.; Samset, Bjørn H.

    2016-01-01

    Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO_2) emissions is often thought to be at odds with economic growth and poverty reduction. Using an integrated assessment modeling approach, we find that China can cap CO_2 emissions at 2015 level while sustaining economic growth and reducing the urban-rural income gap by a third by 2030. As a result, the Chinese economy becomes less dependent on exports and investments, as household consumption emerges as a driver behind economic growth, in line with current policy priorities. The resulting accumulated greenhouse gas emissions reduction 2016–2030 is about 60 billion ton (60 Mg) CO_2e. A CO_2 tax combined with income re-distribution initially leads to a modest warming due to reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO_2) emissions. However, the net effect is eventually cooling when the effect of reduced CO_2 emissions dominates due to the long-lasting climate response of CO_2. The net reduction in global temperature for the remaining part of this century is about 0.03 ± 0.02 °C, corresponding in magnitude to the cooling from avoiding one year of global CO_2 emissions. - Highlights: • China can cap CO_2-emissions at 2015 level without harming economic growth. • Poverty reduction is compatible with policy to cap CO_2 emissions. • Rural poverty reduction financed by CO_2 tax revenue increases domestic consumption. • One year of the global emissions is avoided. • The global mean temperature is reduced by 0.03 (± 0.02) °C.

  14. A warmer policy for a colder climate: Can China both reduce poverty and cap carbon emissions?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glomsrød, Solveig; Wei, Taoyuan, E-mail: taoyuan.wei@cicero.uio.no; Aamaas, Borgar; Lund, Marianne T.; Samset, Bjørn H.

    2016-10-15

    Reducing global carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}) emissions is often thought to be at odds with economic growth and poverty reduction. Using an integrated assessment modeling approach, we find that China can cap CO{sub 2} emissions at 2015 level while sustaining economic growth and reducing the urban-rural income gap by a third by 2030. As a result, the Chinese economy becomes less dependent on exports and investments, as household consumption emerges as a driver behind economic growth, in line with current policy priorities. The resulting accumulated greenhouse gas emissions reduction 2016–2030 is about 60 billion ton (60 Mg) CO{sub 2}e. A CO{sub 2} tax combined with income re-distribution initially leads to a modest warming due to reduction in sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) emissions. However, the net effect is eventually cooling when the effect of reduced CO{sub 2} emissions dominates due to the long-lasting climate response of CO{sub 2}. The net reduction in global temperature for the remaining part of this century is about 0.03 ± 0.02 °C, corresponding in magnitude to the cooling from avoiding one year of global CO{sub 2} emissions. - Highlights: • China can cap CO{sub 2}-emissions at 2015 level without harming economic growth. • Poverty reduction is compatible with policy to cap CO{sub 2} emissions. • Rural poverty reduction financed by CO{sub 2} tax revenue increases domestic consumption. • One year of the global emissions is avoided. • The global mean temperature is reduced by 0.03 (± 0.02) °C.

  15. Climate, duration, and N placement determine N2 O emissions in reduced tillage systems: a meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Kessel, Chris; Venterea, Rodney; Six, Johan; Adviento-Borbe, Maria Arlene; Linquist, Bruce; van Groenigen, Kees Jan

    2013-01-01

    No-tillage and reduced tillage (NT/RT) management practices are being promoted in agroecosystems to reduce erosion, sequester additional soil C and reduce production costs. The impact of NT/RT on N2 O emissions, however, has been variable with both increases and decreases in emissions reported. Herein, we quantitatively synthesize studies on the short- and long-term impact of NT/RT on N2 O emissions in humid and dry climatic zones with emissions expressed on both an area- and crop yield-scaled basis. A meta-analysis was conducted on 239 direct comparisons between conventional tillage (CT) and NT/RT. In contrast to earlier studies, averaged across all comparisons, NT/RT did not alter N2 O emissions compared with CT. However, NT/RT significantly reduced N2 O emissions in experiments >10 years, especially in dry climates. No significant correlation was found between soil texture and the effect of NT/RT on N2 O emissions. When fertilizer-N was placed at ≥5 cm depth, NT/RT significantly reduced area-scaled N2 O emissions, in particular under humid climatic conditions. Compared to CT under dry climatic conditions, yield-scaled N2 O increased significantly (57%) when NT/RT was implemented <10 years, but decreased significantly (27%) after ≥10 years of NT/RT. There was a significant decrease in yield-scaled N2 O emissions in humid climates when fertilizer-N was placed at ≥5 cm depth. Therefore, in humid climates, deep placement of fertilizer-N is recommended when implementing NT/RT. In addition, NT/RT practices need to be sustained for a prolonged time, particularly in dry climates, to become an effective mitigation strategy for reducing N2 O emissions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  16. Greenhouse gas emissions trading and complementary policies. Developing a smart mix for ambitious climate policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Matthes, Felix C.

    2010-06-15

    A debate has - most notably as a result of the introduction of fixed caps within the framework of emissions trading - been raised about the need for using additional instruments of climate and energy policy. A common line of argument is that the targets set within the emissions trading scheme are going to be met with a high degree of certainty, and flexibility among the regulated stakeholders will lead to market-based discovery processes. Additional instruments would only generate additional costs and would therefore have to be rejected. However, closer analysis of these fundamental arguments shows that they are constructed on a very high level of abstraction and sometimes rely on strongly simplifying or idealising assumptions. Their theoretical assumptions are, at least in part, very questionable and do not correspond to conditions in the real world for climate and energy policy. At the same time the debate about policy instruments cannot be held autonomously of the specific context of the problem at hand. In this sense the very extensive (complete) and above all effective decarbonisation of the economies of industrialised countries in a comparatively short time frame is the key basic condition for the analysis, assessment and design of the climate policy mix. Essentially, the question is what the best instruments are for purging the whole economic system almost entirely of CO{sub 2} emissions within a period of only forty years. The introduction of emissions trading schemes for greenhouse gases in an increasing number of OECD countries undoubtedly constitutes an important landmark of climate policy. They: - provide a high degree of certainty in terms of meeting targets; - create, on the basis of a standardised price signal, a clearing mechanism for the broad spectrum of emission reduction options close to the market, at least in the short to medium term; and - represent, by means of linking, an interesting option in terms of the globalisation of climate policy

  17. Import of combustible waste and its impact on emissions of climate gases

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Haraldsson, Maarten; Sundberg, Johan (Profu, Moelndal (Sweden))

    2010-07-01

    Import of combustible waste for waste incineration in Sweden has increased over the last decade and prognosis show that importation will increase even further in the future. The reason for the projected increase is that many new incineration facilities are being built and several of those plan to use a portion of imported combustible waste as fuel. From an environmental perspective import of waste is controversial and some argue that the import short be restricted. Because of this controversial aspect it is essential to conduct a comprehensive analysis of the environmental impacts of the importation of combustible waste to Swedish incineration facilities. This project is a study of the impact of the import of combustible waste on climate emissions. This is a system analysis study which included both direct as well as indirect emissions from the activity of importation of combustible waste. Direct emissions occur from the incineration of waste while indirect emissions occur in systems that interact with the incineration facility. These systems are: transport of waste, alternative waste treatment, alternative electricity production and alternative heat production in the district heating system which the incineration facility is connected with. From the perspective of a system analysis the import of combustible waste to incineration leads to the following consequences regarding emissions of climate gases: - The imported waste is used as fuel in the incineration facility which generates heat and electricity. During the combustion process climate gases are being emitted - As the combustible waste is being imported it has to be transported from the country of origin to the incineration facility. The vehicle used for the transport is emitting climate gases - By importing combustible waste an alternative treatment method in the country of origin is avoided by that country. Emissions from the alternative treatment method are thereby avoided - Import of combustible waste

  18. A Cancun stake: to revitalize climate cooperation while improving transparency about national greenhouse gas emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-12-01

    After having recalled the instruments which are available for the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change) to ensure an as much as transparent as possible information transmission between states about greenhouse gas emissions, this article questions the way the Copenhagen agreement can be implemented while considering the discussions which took place. It draws lessons from other previous examples of international cooperation: WTO agreements, the Clean Development Mechanism. Three propositions are made in the perspective of the Cancun conference: to create a reliable world inventory of emissions, to organize cooperation with countries wishing to define statistics for their emission monitoring, and to reinforce transparency and control of measures (with the MRV criteria) which are subsidized by the international community

  19. Carbon emissions from U.S. ethylene production under climate change policies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruth, Matthias; Amato, Anthony D; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur

    2002-01-15

    This paper presents the results from a dynamic computer model of U.S. ethylene production, designed to explore implications of alternative climate change policies for the industry's energy use and carbon emissions profiles. The model applies to the aggregate ethylene industry but distinguishes its main cracker types, fuels used as feedstocks and for process energy, as well as the industry's capital vintage structure and vintage-specific efficiencies. Results indicate that policies which increase the cost of carbon of process energy-such as carbon taxes or carbon permit systems-are relatively blunt instruments for cutting carbon emissions from ethylene production. In contrast, policies directly affecting the relative efficiencies of new to old capital-such as R&D stimuli or accelerated depreciation schedules-may be more effective in leveraging the industry's potential for carbon emissions reductions.

  20. Climate-driven coral reorganisation influences aggressive behaviour in juvenile coral-reef fishes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kok, Judith E.; Graham, Nicholas A. J.; Hoogenboom, Mia O.

    2016-06-01

    Globally, habitat degradation is altering the abundance and diversity of species in a variety of ecosystems. This study aimed to determine how habitat degradation, in terms of changing coral composition under climate change, affected abundance, species richness and aggressive behaviour of juveniles of three damselfishes ( Pomacentrus moluccensis, P. amboinensis and Dischistodus perspicillatus, in order of decreasing reliance on coral). Patch reefs were constructed to simulate two types of reefs: present-day reefs that are vulnerable to climate-induced coral bleaching, and reefs with more bleaching-robust coral taxa, thereby simulating the likely future of coral reefs under a warming climate. Fish communities were allowed to establish naturally on the reefs during the summer recruitment period. Climate-robust reefs had lower total species richness of coral-reef fishes than climate-vulnerable reefs, but total fish abundance was not significantly different between reef types (pooled across all species and life-history stages). The nature of aggressive interactions, measured as the number of aggressive chases, varied according to coral composition; on climate-robust reefs, juveniles used the substratum less often to avoid aggression from competitors, and interspecific aggression became relatively more frequent than intraspecific aggression for juveniles of the coral-obligate P. moluccensis. This study highlights the importance of coral composition as a determinant of behaviour and diversity of coral-reef fishes.

  1. Climate-driven disturbances in the San Juan River sub-basin of the Colorado River

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennett, Katrina E.; Bohn, Theodore J.; Solander, Kurt; McDowell, Nathan G.; Xu, Chonggang; Vivoni, Enrique; Middleton, Richard S.

    2018-01-01

    Accelerated climate change and associated forest disturbances in the southwestern USA are anticipated to have substantial impacts on regional water resources. Few studies have quantified the impact of both climate change and land cover disturbances on water balances on the basin scale, and none on the regional scale. In this work, we evaluate the impacts of forest disturbances and climate change on a headwater basin to the Colorado River, the San Juan River watershed, using a robustly calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency 0.76) hydrologic model run with updated formulations that improve estimates of evapotranspiration for semi-arid regions. Our results show that future disturbances will have a substantial impact on streamflow with implications for water resource management. Our findings are in contradiction with conventional thinking that forest disturbances reduce evapotranspiration and increase streamflow. In this study, annual average regional streamflow under the coupled climate-disturbance scenarios is at least 6-11 % lower than those scenarios accounting for climate change alone; for forested zones of the San Juan River basin, streamflow is 15-21 % lower. The monthly signals of altered streamflow point to an emergent streamflow pattern related to changes in forests of the disturbed systems. Exacerbated reductions of mean and low flows under disturbance scenarios indicate a high risk of low water availability for forested headwater systems of the Colorado River basin. These findings also indicate that explicit representation of land cover disturbances is required in modeling efforts that consider the impact of climate change on water resources.

  2. Environmental Concern, Social Capital and the Social Context of Tailpipe Emissions-Related Knowledge in Northern Climates

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-06-30

    Approximately a quarter of all greenhouse gases originate from motor vehicle tailpipe emissions (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Along with reducing household energy usage, changes in transportation behavior would have the most dire...

  3. A Step towards Sustainable Society: The Awareness of Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Climate Change and Carbon Capture in Malaysia

    OpenAIRE

    Ghazali, Zulkipli; Zahid, Muhammad; Kee, Tan Siok; Ibrahim, M. Yussoff

    2016-01-01

    Public awareness is crucial to mitigate negative impacts on the environment. The aim of the study is to explore the level of public awareness in five states of Malaysia (Perak, Melaka, Johor, Pahang and Terengganu) regarding CO2 emissions, climate change and carbon capture and storage (CCS). A questionnaire floated for exploring public awareness regarding CO2 emissions, climate change and CCS. Based on the questionnaire data was collected from five states (Perak, Melaka, Johor, Pahang and Ter...

  4. Misperceived climate friendliness of organic food and consumer willingness to pay for actual greenhouse gas emission reduction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Søren Bøye; Christensen, Tove; Denver, Sigrid

    2015-01-01

    Organic farming practices are generally associated with lower environmental impacts than conventional farming but this does not generally hold true in a climate context. A recent meta-analysis shows that organic milk production often has higher greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions per kilo milk produce...... in consumers’ preferences. Hence, if reduced GHG emissions are to be pursued by increased consumption of climate friendlier food then marketing efforts and information strategies need to be targeted specifically to different segments of the population....

  5. Enhancement of VUV emission from a coaxial xenon excimer ultraviolet lamp driven by distorted bipolar square voltages

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jou, S.Y.; Hung, C.T.; Chiu, Y.M.; Wu, J.S. [Department of Mechanical Engineering, National Chiao Tung University, Hsinchu (China); Wei, B.Y. [High-Efficiency Gas Discharge Lamps Group, Material and Chemical Research Laboratories, Hsinchu (China)

    2011-12-15

    Enhancement of vacuum UV emission (172 nm VUV) from a coaxial xenon excimer UV lamp (EUV) driven by distorted 50 kHz bipolar square voltages, as compared to that by sinusoidal voltages, is investigated numerically in this paper. A self-consistent radial one-dimensional fluid model, taking into consideration non-local electron energy balance, is employed to simulate the discharge physics and chemistry. The discharge is divided into two three-period portions; these include: the pre-discharge, the discharge (most intense at 172 nm VUV emission) and the post-discharge periods. The results show that the efficiency of VUV emission using the distorted bipolar square voltages is much greater than when using sinusoidal voltages; this is attributed to two major mechanisms. The first is the much larger rate of change of the voltage in bipolar square voltages, in which only the electrons can efficiently absorb the power in a very short period of time. Energetic electrons then generate a higher concentration of metastable (and also excited dimer) xenon that is distributed more uniformly across the gap, for a longer period of time during the discharge process. The second is the comparably smaller amount of ''wasted'' power deposition by Xe{sup +}{sub 2} in the post-discharge period, as driven by distorted bipolar square voltages, because of the nearly vanishing gap voltage caused by the shielding effect resulting from accumulated charges on both dielectric surfaces (copyright 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH and Co. KGaA, Weinheim) (orig.)

  6. Projections of climate-driven changes in tuna vertical habitat based on species-specific differences in blood oxygen affinity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mislan, K A S; Deutsch, Curtis A; Brill, Richard W; Dunne, John P; Sarmiento, Jorge L

    2017-10-01

    Oxygen concentrations are hypothesized to decrease in many areas of the ocean as a result of anthropogenically driven climate change, resulting in habitat compression for pelagic animals. The oxygen partial pressure, pO 2 , at which blood is 50% saturated (P 50 ) is a measure of blood oxygen affinity and a gauge of the tolerance of animals for low ambient oxygen. Tuna species display a wide range of blood oxygen affinities (i.e., P 50 values) and therefore may be differentially impacted by habitat compression as they make extensive vertical movements to forage on subdaily time scales. To project the effects of end-of-the-century climate change on tuna habitat, we calculate tuna P 50 depths (i.e., the vertical position in the water column at which ambient pO 2 is equal to species-specific blood P 50 values) from 21st century Earth System Model (ESM) projections included in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Overall, we project P 50 depths to shoal, indicating likely habitat compression for tuna species due to climate change. Tunas that will be most impacted by shoaling are Pacific and southern bluefin tunas-habitat compression is projected for the entire geographic range of Pacific bluefin tuna and for the spawning region of southern bluefin tuna. Vertical shifts in P 50 depths will potentially influence resource partitioning among Pacific bluefin, bigeye, yellowfin, and skipjack tunas in the northern subtropical and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the Arabian Sea, and the Bay of Bengal. By establishing linkages between tuna physiology and environmental conditions, we provide a mechanistic basis to project the effects of anthropogenic climate change on tuna habitats. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  7. Climate and competitiveness: An economic impact assessment of EU leadership in emission control policies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexeeva-Talebi, V.; Boehringer, C.; Moslener, U. [Centre for European Economic Research, Mannheim (Germany)

    2007-07-01

    The European Council has recently claimed to consider ambitious emission reduction targets (15 to 30 percent by 2020 as compared to 1990 levels) to limit global climate change. In light of the coexistent EU priorities under the Lisbon process, the authors analyze alternative unilateral EU emission control policies against their effects on EU (sectoral and economy-wide) competitiveness using a multi-sector, multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model framework. For a given emission reduction target, the simulations show that alternative implementation rules (uniform versus sectorally differentiated carbon taxes) induce ambiguous impacts on sectoral competitiveness: For a uniform tax, relatively carbon-intensive EU industries face competitiveness losses, while carbon-extensive sectors improve their ability to compete internationally. Losses and gains are reinforced by the stringency of unilateral emission reduction targets. Thus, the implementation of an (economically efficient) uniform carbon tax induces structural change which inevitably goes at the expense of carbon-intensive industries. Vice versa, the authors find that more pronounced tax differentiation in favor of carbon-intensive industries can largely neutralize the negative impacts of emission constraints on their competitiveness, but goes at the expense of overall efficiency. In this case, adjustment costs of emission abatement will to a large extent be born by energy-extensive sectors in terms of a deteriorated ability to compete. As a middle course, moderate tax differentiation allows to sectorally balance competitiveness effects of emission control policies and at the same time limit overall efficiency losses. The authors find also that the level of tax differentiation to balance sectoral competitiveness effects and to limit overall efficiency losses is independent of the emission reduction target. Furthermore, the results indicate that the magnitude of sectoral competitiveness effects is

  8. Climate-driven Sympatry does not Lead to Foraging Competition Between Adélie and Gentoo Penguins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cimino, M. A.; Moline, M. A.; Fraser, W.; Patterson-Fraser, D.; Oliver, M. J.

    2016-02-01

    Climate-driven sympatry may lead to competition for food resources between species, population shifts and changes in ecosystem structure. Rapid warming in the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is coincident with increasing gentoo penguin and decreasing Adélie penguin populations, suggesting that competition for food may exacerbate the Adélie penguin decline. At Palmer Station, we tested for foraging competition between these species by comparing their prey, Antarctic krill, distributions and penguin foraging behaviors on fine scales. To study these predator-prey dynamics, we simultaneously deployed penguin satellite transmitters, and a REMUS autonomous underwater vehicle that acoustically detected krill aggregations and measured physical and biological properties of the water column. We detected krill aggregations within the horizontal and vertical foraging ranges of Adélie and gentoo penguin. In the upper 100 m of the water column, the distribution of krill aggregations were mainly associated with CHL and light, suggesting that krill selected for habitats that balance the need to consume food and avoid predation. Adélie and gentoo penguins mainly had spatially segregated foraging areas but in areas of overlap, gentoo penguins switched foraging behavior by foraging at deeper depths, a strategy which limits competition with Adélie penguins. This suggests that climate-driven sympatry does not necessarily result in competitive exclusion. Contrary to a recent theory, which suggests that increased competition for krill is the major driver of Adélie penguin population declines, we suggest that declines in Adélie penguins along the WAP are more likely due to direct and indirect climate impacts on their life histories.

  9. External radioactive markers for PET data-driven respiratory gating in positron emission tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büther, Florian; Ernst, Iris; Hamill, James; Eich, Hans T; Schober, Otmar; Schäfers, Michael; Schäfers, Klaus P

    2013-04-01

    Respiratory gating is an established approach to overcoming respiration-induced image artefacts in PET. Of special interest in this respect are raw PET data-driven gating methods which do not require additional hardware to acquire respiratory signals during the scan. However, these methods rely heavily on the quality of the acquired PET data (statistical properties, data contrast, etc.). We therefore combined external radioactive markers with data-driven respiratory gating in PET/CT. The feasibility and accuracy of this approach was studied for [(18)F]FDG PET/CT imaging in patients with malignant liver and lung lesions. PET data from 30 patients with abdominal or thoracic [(18)F]FDG-positive lesions (primary tumours or metastases) were included in this prospective study. The patients underwent a 10-min list-mode PET scan with a single bed position following a standard clinical whole-body [(18)F]FDG PET/CT scan. During this scan, one to three radioactive point sources (either (22)Na or (18)F, 50-100 kBq) in a dedicated holder were attached the patient's abdomen. The list mode data acquired were retrospectively analysed for respiratory signals using established data-driven gating approaches and additionally by tracking the motion of the point sources in sinogram space. Gated reconstructions were examined qualitatively, in terms of the amount of respiratory displacement and in respect of changes in local image intensity in the gated images. The presence of the external markers did not affect whole-body PET/CT image quality. Tracking of the markers led to characteristic respiratory curves in all patients. Applying these curves for gated reconstructions resulted in images in which motion was well resolved. Quantitatively, the performance of the external marker-based approach was similar to that of the best intrinsic data-driven methods. Overall, the gain in measured tumour uptake from the nongated to the gated images indicating successful removal of respiratory motion

  10. Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nohara, Daisuke; Tsutsui, J; Watanabe, S; Tachiiri, K; Hajima, T; Okajima, H; Matsuno, T

    2015-01-01

    Long-term climate experiments up to the year 2300 have been conducted using two full-scale complex Earth system models (ESMs), CESM1(BGC) and MIROC-ESM, for a CO 2 emissions reduction pathway, termed Z650, where annual CO 2 emissions peak at 11 PgC in 2020, decline by 50% every 30 years, and reach zero in 2160. The results have been examined by focusing on the approximate linear relationship between the temperature increase and cumulative CO 2 emissions. Although the temperature increase is nearly proportional to the cumulative CO 2 emissions in both models, this relationship does not necessarily provide a robust basis for the restriction of CO 2 emissions because it is substantially modulated by non-CO 2 forcing. CO 2 -induced warming, estimated from the atmospheric CO 2 concentrations in the models, indicates an approximate compensation of nonlinear changes between fast-mode responses to concentration changes at less than 10 years and slow-mode response at more than 100 years due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. In this estimate, CESM1(BGC) closely approximates a linear trend of 1.7 °C per 1000 PgC, whereas MIROC-ESM shows a deviation toward higher temperatures after the emissions peak, from 1.8 °C to 2.4 °C per 1000 PgC over the range of 400–850 PgC cumulative emissions corresponding to years 2000–2050. The evolution of temperature under zero emissions, 2160–2300, shows a slight decrease of about 0.1 °C per century in CESM1(BGC), but remains almost constant in MIROC-ESM. The fast-mode response toward the equilibrium state decreases with a decrease in the airborne fraction owing to continued CO 2 uptake (carbon cycle inertia), whereas the slow-mode response results in more warming owing to continued heat uptake (thermal inertia). Several specific differences are noted between the two models regarding the degree of this compensation and in some key regional aspects associated with sustained warming and long-term climate risks. Overall, elevated

  11. A unifying framework for metrics for aggregating the climate effect of different emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tol, Richard S J; Berntsen, Terje K; Fuglestvedt, Jan S; O’Neill, Brian C; Shine, Keith P

    2012-01-01

    Multi-gas approaches to climate change policies require a metric establishing ‘equivalences’ among emissions of various species. Climate scientists and economists have proposed four kinds of such metrics and debated their relative merits. We present a unifying framework that clarifies the relationships among them. We show, as have previous authors, that the global warming potential (GWP), used in international law to compare emissions of greenhouse gases, is a special case of the global damage potential (GDP), assuming (1) a finite time horizon, (2) a zero discount rate, (3) constant atmospheric concentrations, and (4) impacts that are proportional to radiative forcing. Both the GWP and GDP follow naturally from a cost–benefit framing of the climate change issue. We show that the global temperature change potential (GTP) is a special case of the global cost potential (GCP), assuming a (slight) fall in the global temperature after the target is reached. We show how the four metrics should be generalized if there are intertemporal spillovers in abatement costs, distinguishing between private (e.g., capital stock turnover) and public (e.g., induced technological change) spillovers. Both the GTP and GCP follow naturally from a cost-effectiveness framing of the climate change issue. We also argue that if (1) damages are zero below a threshold and (2) infinitely large above a threshold, then cost-effectiveness analysis and cost–benefit analysis lead to identical results. Therefore, the GCP is a special case of the GDP. The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change uses the GWP, a simplified cost–benefit concept. The UNFCCC is framed around the ultimate goal of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. Once a stabilization target has been agreed under the convention, implementation is clearly a cost-effectiveness problem. It would therefore be more consistent to use the GCP or its simplification, the GTP. (letter)

  12. Impacts of transportation sector emissions on future U.S. air quality in a changing climate. Part I: Projected emissions, simulation design, and model evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, Patrick; Zhang, Yang; Yan, Fang; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David

    2018-07-01

    Emissions from the transportation sector are rapidly changing worldwide; however, the interplay of such emission changes in the face of climate change are not as well understood. This two-part study examines the impact of projected emissions from the U.S. transportation sector (Part I) on ambient air quality in the face of climate change (Part II). In Part I of this study, we describe the methodology and results of a novel Technology Driver Model (see graphical abstract) that includes 1) transportation emission projections (including on-road vehicles, non-road engines, aircraft, rail, and ship) derived from a dynamic technology model that accounts for various technology and policy options under an IPCC emission scenario, and 2) the configuration/evaluation of a dynamically downscaled Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system. By 2046-2050, the annual domain-average transportation emissions of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH 3 ), and sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) are projected to decrease over the continental U.S. The decreases in gaseous emissions are mainly due to reduced emissions from on-road vehicles and non-road engines, which exhibit spatial and seasonal variations across the U.S. Although particulate matter (PM) emissions widely decrease, some areas in the U.S. experience relatively large increases due to increases in ship emissions. The on-road vehicle emissions dominate the emission changes for CO, NO x , VOC, and NH 3 , while emissions from both the on-road and non-road modes have strong contributions to PM and SO 2 emission changes. The evaluation of the baseline 2005 WRF simulation indicates that annual biases are close to or within the acceptable criteria for meteorological performance in the literature, and there is an overall good agreement in the 2005 CMAQ simulations of chemical variables against both surface and satellite observations. Copyright © 2018

  13. Multivariate data-driven modelling and pattern recognition for damage detection and identification for acoustic emission and acousto-ultrasonics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Torres-Arredondo, M-A; Fritzen, C-P; Tibaduiza, D-A; Mujica, L E; Rodellar, J; McGugan, M; Toftegaard, H; Borum, K-K

    2013-01-01

    Different methods are commonly used for non-destructive testing in structures; among others, acoustic emission and ultrasonic inspections are widely used to assess structures. The research presented in this paper is motivated by the need to improve the inspection capabilities and reliability of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems based on ultrasonic guided waves with focus on the acoustic emission and acousto-ultrasonics techniques. The use of a guided wave based approach is driven by the fact that these waves are able to propagate over relatively long distances, and interact sensitively and uniquely with different types of defect. Special attention is paid here to the development of efficient SHM methodologies. This requires robust signal processing techniques for the correct interpretation of the complex ultrasonic waves. Therefore, a variety of existing algorithms for signal processing and pattern recognition are evaluated and integrated into the different proposed methodologies. As a contribution to solve the problem, this paper presents results in damage detection and classification using a methodology based on hierarchical nonlinear principal component analysis, square prediction measurements and self-organizing maps, which are applied to data from acoustic emission tests and acousto-ultrasonic inspections. At the end, the efficiency of these methodologies is experimentally evaluated in diverse anisotropic composite structures. (paper)

  14. Impact of plastic mulching on nitrous oxide emissions in China's arid agricultural region under climate change conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Yongxiang; Tao, Hui; Jia, Hongtao; Zhao, Chengyi

    2017-06-01

    The denitrification-decomposition (DNDC) model is a useful tool for integrating the effects of agricultural practices and climate change on soil nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from agricultural ecosystems. In this study, the DNDC model was evaluated against observations and used to simulate the effect of plastic mulching on soil N2O emissions and crop growth. The DNDC model performed well in simulating temporal variations in N2O emissions and plant growth during the observation period, although it slightly underestimated the cumulative N2O emissions, and was able to simulate the effects of plastic mulching on N2O emissions and crop yield. Both the observations and simulations demonstrated that the application of plastic film increased cumulative N2O emissions and cotton lint yield compared with the non-mulched treatment. The sensitivity test showed that the N2O emissions and lint yield were sensitive to changes in climate and management practices, and the application of plastic film made the N2O emissions and lint yield less sensitive to changes in temperature and irrigation. Although the simulations showed that the beneficial impacts of plastic mulching on N2O emissions were not gained under high fertilizer and irrigation scenarios, our simulations suggest that the application of plastic film effectively reduced soil N2O emissions while promoting yields under suitable fertilizer rates and irrigation. Compared with the baseline scenario, future climate change significantly increased N2O emissions by 15-17% without significantly influencing the lint yields in the non-mulched treatment; in the mulched treatment, climate change significantly promoted the lint yield by 5-6% and significantly reduced N2O emissions by 14% in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Overall, our results demonstrate that the application of plastic film is an efficient way to address increased N2O emissions and simultaneously enhance crop yield in the future.

  15. Nitrous oxide emission budgets and land-use-driven hotspots for organic soils in Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Leppelt, T; Dechow, R; Gebbert, S

    2014-01-01

    from organic soils represent up to 13% of total European N2O emissions reported in the European Union (EU) greenhouse gas inventory of 2011 from only 7% of the EU area. Thereby the model demonstrated that the major part (85%) of the inventory is induced by anthropogenic management, which shows...

  16. Measurement of fluorescence emission spectrum of few strongly driven atoms using an optical nanofiber.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Das, Manoj; Shirasaki, A; Nayak, K P; Morinaga, M; Le Kien, Fam; Hakuta, K

    2010-08-02

    We show that the fluorescence emission spectrum of few atoms can be measured by using an optical nanofiber combined with the optical heterodyne and photon correlation spectroscopy. The observed fluorescence spectrum of the atoms near the nanofiber shows negligible effects of the atom-surface interaction and agrees well with the Mollow triplet spectrum of free-space atoms at high excitation intensity.

  17. Interannual abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton unveil climate-driven hydrographic variations in the Iberian Peninsula, Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Ambrosio, Mariaelena; Molinero, Juan C; Azeiteiro, Ulisses M; Pardal, Miguel A; Primo, Ana L; Nyitrai, Daniel; Marques, Sónia C

    2016-09-01

    The persistent massive blooms of gelatinous zooplankton recorded during recent decades may be indicative of marine ecosystem changes. In this study, we investigated the potential influence of the North Atlantic climate (NAO) variability on decadal abundance changes of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary, Portugal, over the period 2003-2013. During the 11-year study, the community of gelatinous carnivores encompassed a larger diversity of hydromedusae than siphonophores; the former dominated by Obelia spp., Lizzia blondina, Clythia hemisphaerica, Liriope tetraphylla and Solmaris corona, while the latter dominated by Muggiaea atlantica. Gelatinous carnivore zooplankton displayed marked interannual variability and mounting species richness over the period examined. Their pattern of abundance shifted towards larger abundances ca. 2007 and significant phenological changes. The latter included a shift in the mean annual pattern (from unimodal to bimodal peak, prior and after 2007 respectively) and an earlier timing of the first annual peak concurrent with enhanced temperatures. These changes were concurrent with the climate-driven environmental variability mainly controlled by the NAO, which displayed larger variance after 2007 along with an enhanced upwelling activity. Structural equation modelling allowed depicting cascading effects derived from the NAO influence on regional climate and upwelling variability further shaping water temperature. Such cascading effect percolated the structure and dynamics of the community of gelatinous carnivore zooplankton in the Mondego estuary. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Assessment of climate-driven variations in malaria incidence in Swaziland: toward malaria elimination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chuang, Ting-Wu; Soble, Adam; Ntshalintshali, Nyasatu; Mkhonta, Nomcebo; Seyama, Eric; Mthethwa, Steven; Pindolia, Deepa; Kunene, Simon

    2017-06-01

    Swaziland aims to eliminate malaria by 2020. However, imported cases from neighbouring endemic countries continue to sustain local parasite reservoirs and initiate transmission. As certain weather and climatic conditions may trigger or intensify malaria outbreaks, identification of areas prone to these conditions may aid decision-makers in deploying targeted malaria interventions more effectively. Malaria case-surveillance data for Swaziland were provided by Swaziland's National Malaria Control Programme. Climate data were derived from local weather stations and remote sensing images. Climate parameters and malaria cases between 2001 and 2015 were then analysed using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models and distributed lag non-linear models (DLNM). The incidence of malaria in Swaziland increased between 2005 and 2010, especially in the Lubombo and Hhohho regions. A time-series analysis indicated that warmer temperatures and higher precipitation in the Lubombo and Hhohho administrative regions are conducive to malaria transmission. DLNM showed that the risk of malaria increased in Lubombo when the maximum temperature was above 30 °C or monthly precipitation was above 5 in. In Hhohho, the minimum temperature remaining above 15 °C or precipitation being greater than 10 in. might be associated with malaria transmission. This study provides a preliminary assessment of the impact of short-term climate variations on malaria transmission in Swaziland. The geographic separation of imported and locally acquired malaria, as well as population behaviour, highlight the varying modes of transmission, part of which may be relevant to climate conditions. Thus, the impact of changing climate conditions should be noted as Swaziland moves toward malaria elimination.

  19. Disentangling the climate-driven bimodal growth pattern in coastal and continental Mediterranean pine stands.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pacheco, Arturo; Camarero, J Julio; Ribas, Montse; Gazol, Antonio; Gutierrez, E; Carrer, Marco

    2018-02-15

    Mediterranean climate promotes two distinct growth peaks separated by summer quiescence in trees. This bimodal pattern has been associated to favourable growing conditions during spring and autumn when mild temperatures and soil-water availability enhance cambial activity. Climatic models predict progressive warming and drying for the Mediterranean Basin, which could shorten or shift the spring and autumn growing seasons. We explored this idea by comparing two sites with different Mediterranean climate types (continental/dry and coastal/wet) and studied how climate drives the bimodal growth pattern in Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis). Specifically we investigated the intra-annual changes in wood anatomy and the corresponding formation of density fluctuations (IADF). Trees on both sites were analyzed by dendrometer monitoring and by developing chronologies of wood anatomical traits. Radial-increment dynamics followed a similar bimodal pattern in both sites but coastal trees showed higher increments during the spring and autumn growth peaks, especially in autumn. The summer rest of cambium activity occurs almost one month earlier in the coastal than in the inland site. Lumen area and cell-wall thickness were significantly smaller in the continental site, while the increment rate of cell-wall thickness during an IADF event was much higher in the coastal pines. The accumulated soil moisture deficit was the main climatic constraint of tracheid enlargement in continental pines. Intra-annual density fluctuations were more frequent in the coastal trees where wood anatomy features recover to average values after such events, meanwhile inland trees presented a much lower recovery rate. Growth bimodality and the formation of density fluctuations were linked, but mild climate of the coastal site allows a longer growing season, which explains why trees in this area showed higher and more variable growth rates. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. From Oil Crisis to Climate Change. Understanding CO2 Emission Trends in IEA Countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unander, F.

    2003-11-01

    OECD CO2 emissions from fuel combustion increased 13% between 1990 and 2001. This signals an important shift since, over the 1973 to 1990 period, emissions only increased by 3.4%. As a result, CO2 emissions from energy use (fuel combustion) contributed 81.1% of total OECD greenhouse gas emissions in 2001 compared to 77.7% in 1990. As these figures make clear, reducing CO2 emissions from fuel combustion constitutes a key challenge to combat climate change. Developing and successfully implementing the most efficient policies for reducing CO2 emissions requires a good understanding of how factors such as income, prices, demography, economic structure, lifestyle, climate, energy efficiency and fuel mix affect energy use and resulting CO2 emissions. This paper presents selected results from the analysis of CO2 developments included in the IEA publication 'From Oil Crisis to Climate Challenge: 30 Years of Energy Use in IEA Countries'. The paper gives a brief overview of aggregate CO2 emission trends and of how recent developments in selected IEA countries compare to emissions levels implied by the Kyoto targets. A deeper understanding of the aggregate trends is provided by showing results from a decomposition analysis and by discussing developments in key end-use sectors. The full publication presents a more detailed analysis of how various factors have shaped energy use patterns and CO2 emissions since 1973. The analysis draws on a newly developed database with detailed information on energy use in the manufacturing, household, service and transport sectors. The database represents the most disaggregated information available on a consistent basis across countries and sectors. The study uses quantitative measures to illustrate the forces that drive or restrain energy use. These measures - or indicators - include: activities such as manufacturing output or heated-floor-area of homes; structural developments such as changes in manufacturing output mix or changes in the

  1. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: an important first step for assessing impact of future climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dixit, Prakash N; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., >30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with >10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Global isoprene and monoterpene emissions under changing climate, vegetation, CO2 and land use

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hantson, Stijn; Knorr, Wolfgang; Schurgers, Guy

    2017-01-01

    Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.). It is th......Plants emit large quantities of isoprene and monoterpenes, the main components of global biogenic volatile organic compound (BVOC) emissions. BVOCs have an important impact on the atmospheric composition of methane, and of short-lived radiative forcing agents (e.g. ozone, aerosols etc.......). It is therefore necessary to know how isoprene and monoterpene emissions have changed over the past and how future changes in climate, land-use and other factors will impact them. Here we present emission estimates of isoprene and monoterpenes over the period 1901–2 100 based on the dynamic global vegetation...... model LPJ-GUESS, including the effects of all known important drivers. We find that both isoprene and monoterpene emissions at the beginning of the 20th century were higher than at present. While anthropogenic land-use change largely drives the global decreasing trend for isoprene over the 20th century...

  3. Runoff scenarios of the Ötz catchment (Tyrol, Austria) considering climate change driven changes of the cryosphere

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helfricht, Kay; Schneeberger, Klaus; Welebil, Irene; Schöber, Johannes; Huss, Matthias; Formayer, Herbert; Huttenlau, Matthias; Schneider, Katrin

    2014-05-01

    The seasonal distribution of runoff in alpine catchments is markedly influenced by the cryospheric contribution (snow and ice). Long-term climate change will alter these reservoirs and consequently have an impact on the water balance. Glacierized catchments like the Ötztal (Tyrol, Austria) are particularly sensitive to changes in the cryosphere and the hydrological changes related to them. The Ötztal possesses an outstanding role in Austrian and international cryospheric research and reacts sensitive to changes in hydrology due to its socio-economic structure (e.g. importance of tourism, hydro-power). In this study future glacier scenarios for the runoff calculations in the Ötztal catchment are developed. In addition to climatological scenario data, glacier scenarios were established for the hydrological simulation of future runoff. Glacier outlines and glacier surface elevation changes of the Austrian Glacier Inventory were used to derive present ice thickness distribution and scenarios of glacier area distribution. Direct effects of climate change (i.e. temperature and precipitation change) and indirect effects in terms of variations in the cryosphere were considered for the analysis of the mean runoff and particularly flood frequencies. Runoff was modelled with the hydrological model HQSim, which was calibrated for the runoff gauges at Brunau, Obergurgl and Vent. For a sensitivity study, the model was driven by separate glacier scenarios. Keeping glacier area constant, variable climate input was used to separate the effect of climate sensitivity. Results of the combination of changed glacier areas and changed climate input were subsequently analysed. Glacier scenarios show first a decrease in volume, before glacier area shrinks. The applied method indicates a 50% ice volume loss by 2050 relative to today. Further, model results show a reduction in glacier volume and area to less than 20% of the current ice cover towards the end of the 21st century. The effect

  4. Herbivory and climate interact serially to control monoterpene emissions from pinyon pine forests.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trowbridge, Amy M; Daly, Ryan W; Helmig, Detlev; Stoy, Paul C; Monson, Russell K

    2014-06-01

    The emission of volatile monoterpenes from coniferous trees impacts the oxidative state of the troposphere and multi-trophic signaling between plants and animals. Previous laboratory studies have revealed that climate anomalies and herbivory alter the rate of tree monoterpene emissions. However, no studies to date have been conducted to test these relations in situ. We conducted a two-year field experiment at two semiarid sites dominated by pinyon pine (Pinus edulis) during outbreaks of a specialist herbivore, the southwestern tiger moth (Lophocampa ingens: Arctiidae). We discovered that during the early spring, when herbivory rates were highest, monoterpene emission rates were approximately two to six times higher from undamaged needles on damaged trees, with this increase in emissions due to alpha-pinene, beta-pinene, and camphene at both sites. During mid-summer, emission rates did not differ between previously damaged and undamaged trees at the site on the Western Slope of the Rocky Mountains, but rather tracked changes in the temperature and precipitation regime characteristic of the region. As the mid-summer drought progressed at the Eastern Slope site, emission rates were low, but differences between previously damaged and undamaged trees were not statistically significant. Despite no difference in emissions, mid-summer tissue monoterpene concentrations were significantly lower in previously damaged trees at both sites. With the onset of monsoon rains during late summer, emission rates from previously damaged trees increased to levels higher than those of undamaged trees despite the lack of herbivory. We conclude that (1) herbivory systemically increases the flux of terpenes to the atmosphere during the spring, (2) drought overrides the effect of past herbivory as the primary control over emissions during the mid-summer, and (3) a release from drought and the onset of late-summer rains is correlated with a secondary increase in emissions, particularly from

  5. US surface ozone trends and extremes from 1980 to 2014: quantifying the roles of rising Asian emissions, domestic controls, wildfires, and climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Meiyun; Horowitz, Larry W.; Payton, Richard; Fiore, Arlene M.; Tonnesen, Gail

    2017-03-01

    US surface O3 responds to varying global-to-regional precursor emissions, climate, and extreme weather, with implications for designing effective air quality control policies. We examine these conjoined processes with observations and global chemistry-climate model (GFDL-AM3) hindcasts over 1980-2014. The model captures the salient features of observed trends in daily maximum 8 h average O3: (1) increases over East Asia (up to 2 ppb yr-1), (2) springtime increases at western US (WUS) rural sites (0.2-0.5 ppb yr-1) with a baseline sampling approach, and (3) summertime decreases, largest at the 95th percentile, and wintertime increases in the 50th to 5th percentiles over the eastern US (EUS). Asian NOx emissions have tripled since 1990, contributing as much as 65 % to modeled springtime background O3 increases (0.3-0.5 ppb yr-1) over the WUS, outpacing O3 decreases attained via 50 % US NOx emission controls. Methane increases over this period contribute only 15 % of the WUS background O3 increase. Springtime O3 observed in Denver has increased at a rate similar to remote rural sites. During summer, increasing Asian emissions approximately offset the benefits of US emission reductions, leading to weak or insignificant observed O3 trends at WUS rural sites. Mean springtime WUS O3 is projected to increase by ˜ 10 ppb from 2010 to 2030 under the RCP8.5 global change scenario. While historical wildfire emissions can enhance summertime monthly mean O3 at individual sites by 2-8 ppb, high temperatures and the associated buildup of O3 produced from regional anthropogenic emissions contribute most to elevating observed summertime O3 throughout the USA. GFDL-AM3 captures the observed interannual variability of summertime EUS O3. However, O3 deposition sink to vegetation must be reduced by 35 % for the model to accurately simulate observed high-O3 anomalies during the severe drought of 1988. Regional NOx reductions alleviated the O3 buildup during the recent heat waves of 2011

  6. Climate and Health Impacts of US Emissions Reductions Consistent with 2 C

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shindell, Drew T.; Lee, Yunha; Faluvegi, Greg

    2016-01-01

    An emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies, but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid approx.0.03 C global warming in 2030 (0.15 C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid approx.0.05-0.07 C 2030 warming (approx.0.25 C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent approx.175,000 premature deaths, with approx.22,000 (11,000-96,000; 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent approx.120,000 premature deaths and approx.14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at approx.US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming approx.5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.

  7. Climate change and health costs of air emissions from biofuels and gasoline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, Jason; Polasky, Stephen; Nelson, Erik; Tilman, David; Huo, Hong; Ludwig, Lindsay; Neumann, James; Zheng, Haochi; Bonta, Diego

    2009-01-01

    Environmental impacts of energy use can impose large costs on society. We quantify and monetize the life-cycle climate-change and health effects of greenhouse gas (GHG) and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) emissions from gasoline, corn ethanol, and cellulosic ethanol. For each billion ethanol-equivalent gallons of fuel produced and combusted in the US, the combined climate-change and health costs are $469 million for gasoline, $472–952 million for corn ethanol depending on biorefinery heat source (natural gas, corn stover, or coal) and technology, but only $123–208 million for cellulosic ethanol depending on feedstock (prairie biomass, Miscanthus, corn stover, or switchgrass). Moreover, a geographically explicit life-cycle analysis that tracks PM2.5 emissions and exposure relative to U.S. population shows regional shifts in health costs dependent on fuel production systems. Because cellulosic ethanol can offer health benefits from PM2.5 reduction that are of comparable importance to its climate-change benefits from GHG reduction, a shift from gasoline to cellulosic ethanol has greater advantages than previously recognized. These advantages are critically dependent on the source of land used to produce biomass for biofuels, on the magnitude of any indirect land use that may result, and on other as yet unmeasured environmental impacts of biofuels. PMID:19188587

  8. Mamizu climate policy: an evaluation of Japanese carbon emissions reduction targets

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pielke, Roger A Jr

    2009-01-01

    This letter evaluates Japan's so-called 'Mamizu' climate policies proposed in mid-2009 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the Japanese economy for short-term and long-term targets. The letter uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future Japanese population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization consistent with the targets and various rates of economic growth). Both approaches indicate that the Japanese economy would have to achieve rates of decarbonization of 2.6% to meet a 2020 target of reducing emissions by 15% below 2005 levels, and 5.0% to meet a 2050 target of an 80% reduction below 2005 levels. A target of 25% below 1990 emissions proposed by the opposition party (which subsequently formed a government following elections in August 2009) implies a rate of decarbonization of 4.6% annually to 2020. The letter argues that international criticism of Japanese Mamizu climate policy proposals as being too weak was unfounded, and if anything, the proposals may have been too ambitious. In either case, climate policy would be strengthened through the support of a diversity of approaches to decarbonization.

  9. Climate Impacts of Ozone and Sulfate Air Pollution from Specific Emissions Sectors and Regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Koch, D. M.; Shindell, D. T.; Streets, D. G.

    2006-12-01

    The secondary air pollutants ozone (O3) and sulfate aerosol are generated by human activities and affect the Earth's climate system. The global mean radiative forcings of these short-lived species depend on the location of the precursor gas emissions, which has so far prevented their incorporation into climate-motivated policy agreements. O3 and sulfate aerosol are strongly coupled through tropospheric photochemistry and yet air quality control efforts consider each species separately. Previous modeling work to assess climate impacts of O3 has focused on individual precursors, such as nitrogen oxides, even though policy action would target a particular sector. We use the G-PUCCINI atmospheric composition-climate model to isolate the O3 and sulfate direct radiative forcing impacts of 6 specific emissions sectors (industry, transport, power, domestic biofuel, domestic fossil fuel and biomass burning) from 7 geographic regions (North America, Europe, South Asia, East Asia, North Africa and the Middle East, Central and South Africa and South America) for the near future 2030 atmosphere. The goal of the study is to identify specific source sectors and regions that present the most effective opportunities to mitigate global warming. At 2030, the industry and power sectors dominate the sulfate forcing across all regions, with East Asia, South Asia and North Africa and Middle East contributing the largest sulfate forcings (-100 to 120 mWm-2). The transport sector represents an important O3 forcing from all regions ranging from 5 mWm-2 (Europe) to 12 mWm-2 (East Asia). Domestic biofuel O3 forcing is important for the East Asia (13 mWm-2), South Asia (7 mWm-2) and Central and South Africa (10 mWm-2) regions. Biomass burning contributes large O3 forcings for the Central and South Africa (15 mWm-2) and South America (11 mWm-2) regions. In addition, the power sector O3 forcings from East Asia (14 mWm-2) and South Asia (8 mWm-2) are also substantial. Considering the sum of the O

  10. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  11. Climate-Smart Livestock Systems: An Assessment of Carbon Stocks and GHG Emissions in Nicaragua.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucía Gaitán

    Full Text Available Livestock systems in the tropics can contribute to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG emissions and increasing carbon accumulation. We quantified C stocks and GHG emissions of 30 dual-purpose cattle farms in Nicaragua using farm inventories and lifecycle analysis. Trees in silvo-pastoral systems were the main C stock above-ground (16-24 Mg ha-1, compared with adjacent secondary forests (43 Mg C ha-1. We estimated that methane from enteric fermentation contributed 1.6 kg CO2-eq., and nitrous oxide from excreta 0.4 kg CO2-eq. per kg of milk produced. Seven farms that we classified as climate-smart agriculture (CSA out of 16 farms had highest milk yields (6.2 kg cow-1day-1 and lowest emissions (1.7 kg CO2-eq. per kg milk produced. Livestock on these farms had higher-quality diets, especially during the dry season, and manure was managed better. Increasing the numbers of CSA farms and improving CSA technology will require better enabling policy and incentives such as payments for ecosystem services.

  12. Climate-Smart Livestock Systems: An Assessment of Carbon Stocks and GHG Emissions in Nicaragua.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaitán, Lucía; Läderach, Peter; Graefe, Sophie; Rao, Idupulapati; van der Hoek, Rein

    2016-01-01

    Livestock systems in the tropics can contribute to mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and increasing carbon accumulation. We quantified C stocks and GHG emissions of 30 dual-purpose cattle farms in Nicaragua using farm inventories and lifecycle analysis. Trees in silvo-pastoral systems were the main C stock above-ground (16-24 Mg ha-1), compared with adjacent secondary forests (43 Mg C ha-1). We estimated that methane from enteric fermentation contributed 1.6 kg CO2-eq., and nitrous oxide from excreta 0.4 kg CO2-eq. per kg of milk produced. Seven farms that we classified as climate-smart agriculture (CSA) out of 16 farms had highest milk yields (6.2 kg cow-1day-1) and lowest emissions (1.7 kg CO2-eq. per kg milk produced). Livestock on these farms had higher-quality diets, especially during the dry season, and manure was managed better. Increasing the numbers of CSA farms and improving CSA technology will require better enabling policy and incentives such as payments for ecosystem services.

  13. Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pellissier, Loïc; Eidesen, Pernille Bronken; Ehrich, Dorothee

    2016-01-01

    High intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since ...... the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses...

  14. Becoming a First Mover in Green Electricity Supply: Corporate Change Driven by Liberalisation and Climate Change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hofman, Peter

    2003-01-01

    This paper presents a study of a trend-setting company in the electricity sector in the Netherlands and its innovative response to the combined influence of liberalisation and climate change. The company became a first mover through its invention of the concept of green electricity and the

  15. Predicting climate-driven regime shifts versus rebound potential in coral reefs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graham, Nicholas A J; Jennings, Simon; MacNeil, M Aaron; Mouillot, David; Wilson, Shaun K

    2015-02-05

    Climate-induced coral bleaching is among the greatest current threats to coral reefs, causing widespread loss of live coral cover. Conditions under which reefs bounce back from bleaching events or shift from coral to algal dominance are unknown, making it difficult to predict and plan for differing reef responses under climate change. Here we document and predict long-term reef responses to a major climate-induced coral bleaching event that caused unprecedented region-wide mortality of Indo-Pacific corals. Following loss of >90% live coral cover, 12 of 21 reefs recovered towards pre-disturbance live coral states, while nine reefs underwent regime shifts to fleshy macroalgae. Functional diversity of associated reef fish communities shifted substantially following bleaching, returning towards pre-disturbance structure on recovering reefs, while becoming progressively altered on regime shifting reefs. We identified threshold values for a range of factors that accurately predicted ecosystem response to the bleaching event. Recovery was favoured when reefs were structurally complex and in deeper water, when density of juvenile corals and herbivorous fishes was relatively high and when nutrient loads were low. Whether reefs were inside no-take marine reserves had no bearing on ecosystem trajectory. Although conditions governing regime shift or recovery dynamics were diverse, pre-disturbance quantification of simple factors such as structural complexity and water depth accurately predicted ecosystem trajectories. These findings foreshadow the likely divergent but predictable outcomes for reef ecosystems in response to climate change, thus guiding improved management and adaptation.

  16. Climatically driven loss of calcium in steppe soil as a sink for atmospheric carbon

    Science.gov (United States)

    A.G. Lapenis; G.B. Lawrence; S.W. Bailey; B.F. Aparin; A.I. Shiklomanov; N.A. Speranskaya; M.S. Torn; M. Calef

    2008-01-01

    During the last several thousand years the semi-arid, cold climate of the Russian steppe formed highly fertile soils rich in organic carbon and calcium (classified as Chernozems in the Russian system). Analysis of archived soil samples collected in Kemannaya Steppe Preserve in 1920, 1947, 1970, and fresh samples collected in 1998 indicated that the native steppe...

  17. Climatically driven yield variability of major crops in Khakassia (South Siberia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Babushkina, Elena A.; Belokopytova, Liliana V.; Zhirnova, Dina F.; Shah, Santosh K.; Kostyakova, Tatiana V.

    2017-12-01

    We investigated the variability of yield of the three main crop cultures in the Khakassia Republic: spring wheat, spring barley, and oats. In terms of yield values, variability characteristics, and climatic response, the agricultural territory of Khakassia can be divided into three zones: (1) the Northern Zone, where crops yield has a high positive response to the amount of precipitation, May-July, and a moderately negative one to the temperatures of the same period; (2) the Central Zone, where crops yield depends mainly on temperatures; and (3) the Southern Zone, where climate has the least expressed impact on yield. The dominant pattern in the crops yield is caused by water stress during periods of high temperatures and low moisture supply with heat stress as additional reason. Differences between zones are due to combinations of temperature latitudinal gradient, precipitation altitudinal gradient, and the presence of a well-developed hydrological network and the irrigational system as moisture sources in the Central Zone. More detailed analysis shows differences in the climatic sensitivity of crops during phases of their vegetative growth and grain development and, to a lesser extent, during harvesting period. Multifactor linear regression models were constructed to estimate climate- and autocorrelation-induced variability of the crops yield. These models allowed prediction of the possibility of yield decreasing by at least 2-11% in the next decade due to increasing of the regional summer temperatures.

  18. Impact of Active Climate Control Seats on Energy Use, Fuel Use, and CO2 Emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kreutzer, Cory J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Rugh, John P [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Titov, Eugene V [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Kekelia, Bidzina [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-11-28

    vehicle, corresponding to 4.0 grams of CO2/mile savings. Finally, the potential impact of 100 percent adoption of climate control seats on U.S. light-duty fleet A/C fuel use was calculated to be 1.3 billion gallons of gasoline annually with a corresponding CO2 emissions reduction of 12.7 million tons. Direct comparison of the impact of the CCS to the ventilated seat off-cycle credit was not possible because the NREL analysis calculated a combined car/truck savings and the baseline A/C CO2 emissions were higher than EPA. To enable comparison, the CCS national A/C CO2 emissions were split into car/truck components and the ventilated seat credit was scaled up. The split CO2 emissions savings due to the CCS were 3.5 g/mi for a car and 4.4 g/mi for a truck. The CCS saved an additional 2.0 g/mi and 2.5 g/mi over the adjusted ventilated seat credit for a car and truck, respectively.

  19. Causes and projections of abrupt climate-driven ecosystem shifts in the North Atlantic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Beaugrand, G.; Edwards, M.; Brander, Keith

    2008-01-01

    Warming of the global climate is now unequivocal and its impact on Earth' functional units has become more apparent. Here, we show that marine ecosystems are not equally sensitive to climate change and reveal a critical thermal boundary where a small increase in temperature triggers abrupt...... ecosystem shifts seen across multiple trophic levels. This large-scale boundary is located in regions where abrupt ecosystem shifts have been reported in the North Atlantic sector and thereby allows us to link these shifts by a global common phenomenon. We show that these changes alter the biodiversity...... and carrying capacity of ecosystems and may, combined with fishing, precipitate the reduction of some stocks of Atlantic cod already severely impacted by exploitation. These findings offer a way to anticipate major ecosystem changes and to propose adaptive strategies for marine exploited resources such as cod...

  20. Climate-driven range shifts of the king penguin in a fragmented ecosystem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cristofari, Robin; Liu, Xiaoming; Bonadonna, Francesco; Cherel, Yves; Pistorius, Pierre; Le Maho, Yvon; Raybaud, Virginie; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Bohec, Céline; Trucchi, Emiliano

    2018-03-01

    Range shift is the primary short-term species response to rapid climate change, but it is often hampered by natural or anthropogenic habitat fragmentation. Different critical areas of a species' niche may be exposed to heterogeneous environmental changes and modelling species response under such complex spatial and ecological scenarios presents well-known challenges. Here, we use a biophysical ecological niche model validated through population genomics and palaeodemography to reconstruct past range shifts and identify future vulnerable areas and potential refugia of the king penguin in the Southern Ocean. Integrating genomic and demographic data at the whole-species level with specific biophysical constraints, we present a refined framework for predicting the effect of climate change on species relying on spatially and ecologically distinct areas to complete their life cycle (for example, migratory animals, marine pelagic organisms and central-place foragers) and, in general, on species living in fragmented ecosystems.

  1. Climate-driven extinctions shape the phylogenetic structure of temperate tree floras.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eiserhardt, Wolf L; Borchsenius, Finn; Plum, Christoffer M; Ordonez, Alejandro; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2015-03-01

    When taxa go extinct, unique evolutionary history is lost. If extinction is selective, and the intrinsic vulnerabilities of taxa show phylogenetic signal, more evolutionary history may be lost than expected under random extinction. Under what conditions this occurs is insufficiently known. We show that late Cenozoic climate change induced phylogenetically selective regional extinction of northern temperate trees because of phylogenetic signal in cold tolerance, leading to significantly and substantially larger than random losses of phylogenetic diversity (PD). The surviving floras in regions that experienced stronger extinction are phylogenetically more clustered, indicating that non-random losses of PD are of increasing concern with increasing extinction severity. Using simulations, we show that a simple threshold model of survival given a physiological trait with phylogenetic signal reproduces our findings. Our results send a strong warning that we may expect future assemblages to be phylogenetically and possibly functionally depauperate if anthropogenic climate change affects taxa similarly. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  2. The previous Common Agricultural Policy (2003-2013) reduced french agricultural emissions. Climate Brief no. 49

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Baudrier, Mathilde; Foucherot, Claudine; Bellassen, Valentin

    2015-04-01

    In September 2013, European institutions ratified the reform of the Common Agricultural Policy for 2014-2020 with new targets for combating climate change, making these an official goal for the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). However the CAP's impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions did not begin in 2014, even if it was previously ancillary to measures focusing on other targets. This Climate Report assesses emissions avoided and induced by the 2003-2013 CAP based on CAP measures modified in France over the period. A list of 20 major measures was drawn up. These met the following three criteria: The measure potentially has an impact on GHG emissions; The annual budget allocated to the measure is more than euro 20 million a year; The measure was created or modified between 2003 and 2013 Their positive or negative impact on GHG emissions was then estimated at a unitary level (per hectare, animal, square metre of greenhouse, etc.), on a national scale (MtCO 2 e per year) and relative to the quantity produced (tCO 2 e per litre of milk, quintal of wheat, etc.). Almost all these measures encourage emissions reduction, whatever the metric considered: tCO 2 e per hectare or per quantity of product. In just under half of cases, however, the incentive is not considered to be effective, with the data (e.g. surface area of grasslands, quantity of animals, etc.) moving in the opposite direction from the expected effects of the measure. The effects from the other half of measures is estimated at more than 2 million tCO 2 e per year, or around 2% of emissions from the agri-supply, agriculture and agri-food (AAA) sectors in 2011. Two-thirds of these reductions can be attributed to three types of measures: incentives for sustainable use of inputs (green environment plan, energy performance plan, training, etc.), agri-environmental grassland premium and coupled support for grain legumes. The main purpose of these calculations is to spark a debate. The assumptions underlying

  3. Climatic and land-use driven change of runoff throughout Sweden

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worman, A. L. E.; Riml, J.; Lindstrom, G.

    2015-12-01

    Changes in runoff can be caused by climatic variations, land-use changes and water regulation. In this paper we propose a separation of the power spectral response of runoff in watersheds in terms of the product of the power spectra of precipitation and the impulse response function for the watershed. This allows a formal separation of the spectral response in climatic factors - the precipitation - from those of land-use change and regulation - the impulse response function. The latter function characterizes the surface water-groundwater interaction, stream network topology and open channel hydraulics. Based on daily data of digitalized hydro-climatological data from 1961, we constructed synthetic, but calibrated data of runoff from 1001 watersheds in Sweden. From spectral analysis of the data we found periodic fluctuations occurring on time scales of about a decade and a bi-annual peak. These multi-annual fluctuations could be statistically linked through the coherence spectra to climatic indices like the NAO, PDO, geostrophic wind velocity and sun spot numbers on common periods of 3,6 and 7,6 years. Such long-term fluctuations in runoff are not significantly affected by the land-use or regulation other than indirectly through impact on local hydro-climate. Based on a spectral separation of precipitation and impulse response function of the watersheds, we found that the intra-annual variation in runoff was primarily affected by the land-use change in 79 unregulated catchments with up to century-long time series of measured daily discharge. There is a statistically significant increasing slope of the catchments impulse response function for 63 of the 79 catchments and this suggest a significant hydrological effect of land-use practice in agriculture, urbanisation and forestry.

  4. Is the number and size of scales in Liolaemus lizards driven by climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    José Tulli, María; Cruz, Félix B

    2018-05-03

    Ectothermic vertebrates are sensitive to thermal fluctuations in the environments where they occur. To buffer these fluctuations, ectotherms use different strategies, including the integument, which is a barrier that minimizes temperature exchange between the inner body and the surrounding air. In lizards, this barrier is constituted by keratinized scales of variable size, shape and texture, and its main function is protection, water loss avoidance and thermoregulation. The size of scales in lizards has been proposed to vary in relation to climatic gradients; however, it has also been observed that in some groups of Iguanian lizards could be related to phylogeny. Thus, here, we studied the area and number of scales (dorsal and ventral) of 61 species of Liolaemus lizards distributed in a broad latitudinal and altitudinal gradient to determine the nature of the variation of the scales with climate, and found that the number and size of scales are related to climatic variables, such as temperature and geographical variables as altitude. The evolutionary process that better explained how these morphological variables evolved was the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model. The number of scales seemed to be related to common ancestry, whereas dorsal and ventral scale areas seemed to vary as a consequence of ecological traits. In fact, the ventral area is less exposed to climate conditions such as ultraviolet radiation or wind and is thus under less pressure to change in response to alterations in external conditions. It is possible that scale ornamentation such as keels and granulosity may bring some more information in this regard. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  5. Contribution of physical modelling to climate-driven landslide hazard mapping: an alpine test site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vandromme, R.; Desramaut, N.; Baills, A.; Hohmann, A.; Grandjean, G.; Sedan, O.; Mallet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    The aim of this work is to develop a methodology for integrating climate change scenarios into quantitative hazard assessment and especially their precipitation component. The effects of climate change will be different depending on both the location of the site and the type of landslide considered. Indeed, mass movements can be triggered by different factors. This paper describes a methodology to address this issue and shows an application on an alpine test site. Mechanical approaches represent a solution for quantitative landslide susceptibility and hazard modeling. However, as the quantity and the quality of data are generally very heterogeneous at a regional scale, it is necessary to take into account the uncertainty in the analysis. In this perspective, a new hazard modeling method is developed and integrated in a program named ALICE. This program integrates mechanical stability analysis through a GIS software taking into account data uncertainty. This method proposes a quantitative classification of landslide hazard and offers a useful tool to gain time and efficiency in hazard mapping. However, an expertise approach is still necessary to finalize the maps. Indeed it is the only way to take into account some influent factors in slope stability such as heterogeneity of the geological formations or effects of anthropic interventions. To go further, the alpine test site (Barcelonnette area, France) is being used to integrate climate change scenarios into ALICE program, and especially their precipitation component with the help of a hydrological model (GARDENIA) and the regional climate model REMO (Jacob, 2001). From a DEM, land-cover map, geology, geotechnical data and so forth the program classifies hazard zones depending on geotechnics and different hydrological contexts varying in time. This communication, realized within the framework of Safeland project, is supported by the European Commission under the 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological

  6. The effect of South American biomass burning aerosol emissions on the regional climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thornhill, Gillian D.; Ryder, Claire L.; Highwood, Eleanor J.; Shaffrey, Len C.; Johnson, Ben T.

    2018-04-01

    The impact of biomass burning aerosol (BBA) on the regional climate in South America is assessed using 30-year simulations with a global atmosphere-only configuration of the Met Office Unified Model. We compare two simulations of high and low emissions of biomass burning aerosol based on realistic interannual variability. The aerosol scheme in the model has hygroscopic growth and optical properties for BBA informed by recent observations, including those from the recent South American Biomass Burning Analysis (SAMBBA) intensive aircraft observations made during September 2012. We find that the difference in the September (peak biomass emissions month) BBA optical depth between a simulation with high emissions and a simulation with low emissions corresponds well to the difference in the BBA emissions between the two simulations, with a 71.6 % reduction from high to low emissions for both the BBA emissions and the BB AOD in the region with maximum emissions (defined by a box of extent 5-25° S, 40-70° W, used for calculating mean values given below). The cloud cover at all altitudes in the region of greatest BBA difference is reduced as a result of the semi-direct effect, by heating of the atmosphere by the BBA and changes in the atmospheric stability and surface fluxes. Within the BBA layer the cloud is reduced by burn-off, while the higher cloud changes appear to be responding to stability changes. The boundary layer is reduced in height and stabilized by increased BBA, resulting in reduced deep convection and reduced cloud cover at heights of 9-14 km, above the layer of BBA. Despite the decrease in cloud fraction, September downwelling clear-sky and all-sky shortwave radiation at the surface is reduced for higher emissions by 13.77 ± 0.39 W m-2 (clear-sky) and 7.37 ± 2.29 W m-2 (all-sky), whilst the upwelling shortwave radiation at the top of atmosphere is increased in clear sky by 3.32 ± 0.09 W m-2, but decreased by -1.36±1.67 W m-2 when cloud changes are

  7. Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Biofuel Crops and Atmospheric Aerosols: Associations with Air Quality and Regional Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pillai, Priya Ramachandran

    Emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) and primary release and secondary formation of aerosols alter the earth's radiative balance and therefore have important climatic implications. Savings in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions accomplished by replacing fossil fuels with biofuels may increase the nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions. Among various atmospheric trace gases, N2O, irrespective of its low atmospheric concentration, is the fourth most important gas in causing the global greenhouse effect. Major processes, those affect the concentration of atmospheric N2O, are soil microbial activities leading to nitrification and denitrification. Therefore, anthropogenic activities such as industrial emissions, and agricultural practices including application of nitrogenous fertilizers, land use changes, biomass combustion all contribute to the atmospheric N2O concentration. The emission rates of N2O related to biofuel production depend on the nitrogen (N) fertilizer uptake efficiency of biofuel crops. However, crops with less N demand, such as switchgrass may have more favorable climate impacts when compared to crops with high N demands, such as corn. Despite its wide environmental tolerance, the regional adaptability of the potential biofuel crop switch grass varies considerably. Therefore, it is important to regionally quantify the GHG emissions and crop yield in response to N-fertilization. A major objective of this study is to quantify soil emissions of N2O from switchgrass and corn fields as a function of N-fertilization. The roles of soil moisture and soil temperature on N2O fluxes were analyzed. These N2O observations may be used to parameterize the biogeochemical models to better understand the impact of different N2O emission scenarios. This study allows for improvements in climate models that focus on understanding the environmental impacts of the climate change mitigation strategy of replacing fossil fuels with biofuels. As a second major objective, the top of the

  8. 20th-century industrial black carbon emissions altered Arctic climate forcing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McConnell, Joseph R; Edwards, Ross; Kok, Gregory L; Flanner, Mark G; Zender, Charles S; Saltzman, Eric S; Banta, J Ryan; Pasteris, Daniel R; Carter, Megan M; Kahl, Jonathan D W

    2007-09-07

    Black carbon (BC) from biomass and fossil fuel combustion alters chemical and physical properties of the atmosphere and snow albedo, yet little is known about its emission or deposition histories. Measurements of BC, vanillic acid, and non-sea-salt sulfur in ice cores indicate that sources and concentrations of BC in Greenland precipitation varied greatly since 1788 as a result of boreal forest fires and industrial activities. Beginning about 1850, industrial emissions resulted in a sevenfold increase in ice-core BC concentrations, with most change occurring in winter. BC concentrations after about 1951 were lower but increasing. At its maximum from 1906 to 1910, estimated surface climate forcing in early summer from BC in Arctic snow was about 3 watts per square meter, which is eight times the typical preindustrial forcing value.

  9. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pommier, Matthieu; Fagerli, Hilde; Gauss, Michael; Simpson, David; Sharma, Sumit; Sinha, Vinay; Ghude, Sachin D.; Landgren, Oskar; Nyiri, Agnes; Wind, Peter

    2018-01-01

    is driven by increases in dust, particulate organic matter (OM) and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs), which are mainly affected by the change in precipitation, biogenic emissions and wind speed.The large increase in anthropogenic emissions has a larger impact than climate change, causing O3 and PM2.5 levels to increase by 13 and 67 % on average in the 2050s over the main part of India, respectively. By the 2030s, secondary inorganic aerosol is predicted to become the second largest contributor to PM2.5 in India, and the largest in the 2050s, exceeding OM and dust.

  10. Impact of regional climate change and future emission scenarios on surface O3 and PM2.5 over India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Pommier

    2018-01-01

    -Gangetic Plain by the 2050s. The increase over India is driven by increases in dust, particulate organic matter (OM and secondary inorganic aerosols (SIAs, which are mainly affected by the change in precipitation, biogenic emissions and wind speed.The large increase in anthropogenic emissions has a larger impact than climate change, causing O3 and PM2.5 levels to increase by 13 and 67 % on average in the 2050s over the main part of India, respectively. By the 2030s, secondary inorganic aerosol is predicted to become the second largest contributor to PM2.5 in India, and the largest in the 2050s, exceeding OM and dust.

  11. Large Ensemble Analytic Framework for Consequence-Driven Discovery of Climate Change Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamontagne, Jonathan R.; Reed, Patrick M.; Link, Robert; Calvin, Katherine V.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2018-03-01

    An analytic scenario generation framework is developed based on the idea that the same climate outcome can result from very different socioeconomic and policy drivers. The framework builds on the Scenario Matrix Framework's abstraction of "challenges to mitigation" and "challenges to adaptation" to facilitate the flexible discovery of diverse and consequential scenarios. We combine visual and statistical techniques for interrogating a large factorial data set of 33,750 scenarios generated using the Global Change Assessment Model. We demonstrate how the analytic framework can aid in identifying which scenario assumptions are most tied to user-specified measures for policy relevant outcomes of interest, specifically for our example high or low mitigation costs. We show that the current approach for selecting reference scenarios can miss policy relevant scenario narratives that often emerge as hybrids of optimistic and pessimistic scenario assumptions. We also show that the same scenario assumption can be associated with both high and low mitigation costs depending on the climate outcome of interest and the mitigation policy context. In the illustrative example, we show how agricultural productivity, population growth, and economic growth are most predictive of the level of mitigation costs. Formulating policy relevant scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures benefits from large ensemble-based exploration of quantitative measures of consequences. To this end, we have contributed a large database of climate change futures that can support "bottom-up" scenario generation techniques that capture a broader array of consequences than those that emerge from limited sampling of a few reference scenarios.

  12. Climate-driven endemic cholera is modulated by human mobility in a megacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perez-Saez, Javier; King, Aaron A.; Rinaldo, Andrea; Yunus, Mohammad; Faruque, Abu S. G.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2017-10-01

    Although a differential sensitivity of cholera dynamics to climate variability has been reported in the spatially heterogeneous megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh, the specific patterns of spread of the resulting risk within the city remain unclear. We build on an established probabilistic spatial model to investigate the importance and role of human mobility in modulating spatial cholera transmission. Mobility fluxes were inferred using a straightforward and generalizable methodology that relies on mapping population density based on a high resolution urban footprint product, and a parameter-free human mobility model. In accordance with previous findings, we highlight the higher sensitivity to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the highly populated urban center than in the more rural periphery. More significantly, our results show that cholera risk is largely transmitted from the climate-sensitive core to the periphery of the city, with implications for the planning of control efforts. In addition, including human mobility improves the outbreak prediction performance of the model with an 11 month lead. The interplay between climatic and human mobility factors in cholera transmission is discussed from the perspective of the rapid growth of megacities across the developing world.

  13. Analysis of changes in crop farming in the Dudh Koshi (Nepal) driven by climate changes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gianinetto, Marco; Polinelli, Francesco; Frassy, Federico; Aiello, Martina; Rota Nodari, Francesco; Soncini, Andrea; Bocchiola, Daniele

    2017-10-01

    Nepal is one of the poorest nations of the world and the Koshi Basin includes some of the poorest regions of this country. It's farming system is subsistence agriculture, mainly rainfed, with crop productivity among the lowest in South Asia. Nepal is also severely impacted by climate changes, such as retreat of glaciers, rise in temperature, erratic rainfalls and increase in frequency of extreme weather. This paper describes the spatio-temporal evolution of cultivated land in Dudh Koshi during the last four decades (1970s-2010s), by mapping the farming of its four main cereals in the districts of Solukhumbu, Okhaldunga and Kothang from space. The analysis of satellite time series showed a 10% of increment in farmland from 1970s to 1990s, and about 60% in the following twenty years. With a shift of cropping to higher altitudes. Data belonging to of the second twenty years are strongly correlated with the population growth observed in the same period (0.97demographic and socioeconomic pressures are driving the expansion, while climatic and topographic parameters are just channeling the expansion. Apart from any policies that could change the tack, Dudh Koshi should be able to meet the increasing demand of cereals in the near future and climate seems not being a limiting factor for further development as it will be the availability of an irrigation system.

  14. Climate-driven speedup of alpine treeline forest growth in the Tianshan Mountains, Northwestern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Zhaohuan; Liu, Hongyan; Wu, Xiuchen; Hao, Qian

    2015-02-01

    Forest growth is sensitive to interannual climatic change in the alpine treeline ecotone (ATE). Whether the alpine treeline ecotone shares a similar pattern of forest growth with lower elevational closed forest belt (CFB) under changing climate remains unclear. Here, we reported an unprecedented acceleration of Picea schrenkiana forest growth since 1960s in the ATE of Tianshan Mountains, northwestern China by a stand-total sampling along six altitudinal transects with three plots in each transect: one from the ATE between the treeline and the forest line, and the other two from the CFB. All the sampled P. schrenkiana forest patches show a higher growth speed after 1960 and, comparatively, forest growth in the CFB has sped up much slower than that in the ATE. The speedup of forest growth at the ATE is mainly accounted for by climate factors, with increasing temperature suggested to be the primary driver. Stronger water deficit as well as more competition within the CFB might have restricted forest growth there more than that within the ATE, implying biotic factors were also significant for the accelerated forest growth in the ATE, which should be excluded from simulations and predictions of warming-induced treeline dynamics. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  15. Monitoring strategies of stream phosphorus under contrasting climate-driven flow regimes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Goyenola, Guillermo; Meerhoff, Marianna; Teixeira-de Mello, Franco

    2015-01-01

    Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from land to downstream aquatic systems, in particular of phosphorus (P) from agricultural lands. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the differences in P export patterns and the pe......Climate and hydrology are relevant control factors determining the timing and amount of nutrient losses from land to downstream aquatic systems, in particular of phosphorus (P) from agricultural lands. The main objective of the study was to evaluate the differences in P export patterns...... applied two alternative nutrient sampling programs (high-frequency composite sampling and low-frequency instantaneous-grab sampling) and estimated the contribution derived from point and diffuse sources fitting a source apportionment model. We expected to detect a pattern of higher total and particulate...... program to estimate P exports in flashy streams compared to the less variable streams. We also found signs of interaction between climate/hydrology and land use intensity, in particular in the presence of point sources of P, leading to a bias towards underestimation of P in hydrologically stable streams...

  16. Free boundary models for mosquito range movement driven by climate warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bao, Wendi; Du, Yihong; Lin, Zhigui; Zhu, Huaiping

    2018-03-01

    As vectors, mosquitoes transmit numerous mosquito-borne diseases. Among the many factors affecting the distribution and density of mosquitoes, climate change and warming have been increasingly recognized as major ones. In this paper, we make use of three diffusive logistic models with free boundary in one space dimension to explore the impact of climate warming on the movement of mosquito range. First, a general model incorporating temperature change with location and time is introduced. In order to gain insights of the model, a simplified version of the model with the change of temperature depending only on location is analyzed theoretically, for which the dynamical behavior is completely determined and presented. The general model can be modified into a more realistic one of seasonal succession type, to take into account of the seasonal changes of mosquito movements during each year, where the general model applies only for the time period of the warm seasons of the year, and during the cold season, the mosquito range is fixed and the population is assumed to be in a hibernating status. For both the general model and the seasonal succession model, our numerical simulations indicate that the long-time dynamical behavior is qualitatively similar to the simplified model, and the effect of climate warming on the movement of mosquitoes can be easily captured. Moreover, our analysis reveals that hibernating enhances the chances of survival and successful spreading of the mosquitoes, but it slows down the spreading speed.

  17. Managing consequences of climate-driven species redistribution requires integration of ecology, conservation and social science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonebrake, Timothy C; Brown, Christopher J; Bell, Johann D; Blanchard, Julia L; Chauvenet, Alienor; Champion, Curtis; Chen, I-Ching; Clark, Timothy D; Colwell, Robert K; Danielsen, Finn; Dell, Anthony I; Donelson, Jennifer M; Evengård, Birgitta; Ferrier, Simon; Frusher, Stewart; Garcia, Raquel A; Griffis, Roger B; Hobday, Alistair J; Jarzyna, Marta A; Lee, Emma; Lenoir, Jonathan; Linnetved, Hlif; Martin, Victoria Y; McCormack, Phillipa C; McDonald, Jan; McDonald-Madden, Eve; Mitchell, Nicola; Mustonen, Tero; Pandolfi, John M; Pettorelli, Nathalie; Possingham, Hugh; Pulsifer, Peter; Reynolds, Mark; Scheffers, Brett R; Sorte, Cascade J B; Strugnell, Jan M; Tuanmu, Mao-Ning; Twiname, Samantha; Vergés, Adriana; Villanueva, Cecilia; Wapstra, Erik; Wernberg, Thomas; Pecl, Gretta T

    2018-02-01

    Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

  18. Emissions trading in international aviation. Possible design options for an emissions trading scheme and their impact on climate change and the aviation industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deuber, Odette; Cames, Martin

    2003-01-01

    According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the contribution of aviation to global warm-ing was 3.5 % in 1992. Considering the average growth rate of 4 % per year, the share might be more than doubled by the end of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol (2012). However, due to difficulties in allocating emissions from international aviation to individual countries, these emissions are exempt from commitments under the Kyoto Protocol, although in Article 2.2 the Parties to the Protocol are obliged to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international aviation. To comply with this obligation, the introduction of emissions trading in international aviation is being discussed within the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). This paper analyses the design options of such an emissions trading scheme and its impact on climate change and the aviation industry. Among other matters, it discusses issues such as open and closed emissions trading schemes, coverage of gases, initial allocation of allowances and possible caps for the aviation industry. It is based on a re-search project that has been carried out on behalf of the German Federal Environmental Agency. The paper reveals that despite complex tropospheric and stratospheric interactions, as well as allocation problems, there are adequate structural options for the design of an emissions trading scheme. Given an adequate structure, emissions trading offers a great incentive to optimise flight routes not only according to economic but also to climatic factors. Consequently, the system would effectively reduce the contribution of aviation to climate change

  19. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dixit, Prakash N., E-mail: p.dixit@cgiar.org; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-04-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  20. Advancing the climate data driven crop-modeling studies in the dry areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon: An important first step for assessing impact of future climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixit, Prakash N.; Telleria, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    Inter-annual and seasonal variability in climatic parameters, most importantly rainfall, have potential to cause climate-induced risk in long-term crop production. Short-term field studies do not capture the full nature of such risk and the extent to which modifications to crop, soil and water management recommendations may be made to mitigate the extent of such risk. Crop modeling studies driven by long-term daily weather data can predict the impact of climate-induced risk on crop growth and yield however, the availability of long-term daily weather data can present serious constraints to the use of crop models. To tackle this constraint, two weather generators namely, LARS-WG and MarkSim, were evaluated in order to assess their capabilities of reproducing frequency distributions, means, variances, dry spell and wet chains of observed daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, and solar radiation for the eight locations across cropping areas of Northern Syria and Lebanon. Further, the application of generated long-term daily weather data, with both weather generators, in simulating barley growth and yield was also evaluated. We found that overall LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters and in 50 years continuous simulation of barley growth and yield. Our findings suggest that LARS-WG does not necessarily require long-term e.g., > 30 years observed weather data for calibration as generated results proved to be satisfactory with > 10 years of observed data except in area with higher altitude. Evaluating these weather generators and the ability of generated weather data to perform long-term simulation of crop growth and yield is an important first step to assess the impact of future climate on yields, and to identify promising technologies to make agricultural systems more resilient in the given region. - Highlights: • LARS-WG performed better than MarkSim in generating daily weather parameters. • LARS-WG can serve

  1. EU policies on car emissions and fuel quality. Reducing the climate impact from road transport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Christensen, Anne Raaum; Gulbrandsen, Lars H.

    2012-07-01

    Transport is the second biggest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU, and contributes about one-quarter of the EU's total emissions of CO{sub 2}. Significant reductions in GHG emissions from transport are required if the EU is to achieve its long-term climate goals. This report examines the making and implementation of two of the regulations the EU has put in place to lower emissions from the transport sector: the EU's revised Fuel Quality Directive (Directive 2009/30/EC) and the cars/CO{sub 2} regulation (Regulation (EC) 443/2009). It was found that the relevance of various theories of policymaking in the EU varies with different policy phases. A policy-network understanding of EU policymaking is strengthened when assessing the policy-initiation phase. The Commission played a key role in this phase and drafted legislation in close collaboration with the car and oil refining industries. An intergovernmentalist understanding of EU policy-making is strengthened when assessing the decision-making phase. In this phase, member states defending the interests of their domestic industries had strong influence, but the European Parliament played an important role in this phase too, employing its power in the co-decision procedure. Finally, the implementation process is best understood as a multi-level governance process in which several actors and institutions - notably the Commission, member states, industries, and NGOs - influenced the process. (Author)

  2. Towards a climate-driven dengue decision support system for Thailand

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Cazelles, Bernard; Paul, Richard; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Dengue is a peri-urban mosquito-transmitted disease, ubiquitous in the tropics and the subtropics. The geographic distribution of dengue and its more severe form, dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), have expanded dramatically in the last decades and dengue is now considered to be the world's most important arboviral disease. Recent demographic changes have greatly contributed to the acceleration and spread of the disease along with uncontrolled urbanization, population growth and increased air travel, which acts as a mechanism for transporting and exchanging dengue viruses between endemic and epidemic populations. The dengue vector and virus are extremely sensitive to environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity and precipitation that influence mosquito biology, abundance and habitat and the virus replication speed. In order to control the spread of dengue and impede epidemics, decision support systems are required that take into account the multi-faceted array of factors that contribute to increased dengue risk. Due to availability of seasonal climate forecasts, that predict the average climate conditions for forthcoming months/seasons in both time and space, there is an opportunity to incorporate precursory climate information in a dengue decision support system to aid epidemic planning months in advance. Furthermore, oceanic indicators from teleconnected areas in the Pacific and Indian Ocean, that can provide some indication of the likely prevailing climate conditions in certain regions, could potentially extend predictive lead time in a dengue early warning system. In this paper we adopt a spatio-temporal Bayesian modelling framework for dengue in Thailand to support public health decision making. Monthly cases of dengue in the 76 provinces of Thailand for the period 1982-2012 are modelled using a multi-layered approach. Environmental explanatory variables at various spatial and temporal resolutions are incorporated into a hierarchical model in order to

  3. Climate Change and employment. Impact on employment in the European Union-25 of climate change and CO2 emission reduction measures by 2030

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dupressoir, S.; Belen Sanchez, A.; Bobe, P.; Hoefele, V. (and others)

    2007-05-15

    This study was intended provide an analysis of the potential costs and benefits for employment of the policies and measures against climate change as well as of the manifestations of the consequences of climate change in Europe. This report comprises two divisions. The first, entitled 'Impact of climate change', attempts to determine the potential impact on employment in Europe of the consequences of climate change (Part 1). The second, entitled 'Impact of CO2 emission reduction measures', analyses the potential implications for employment of climate-change prevention policies in the EU with time-horizons of 2012 and 2030 (Parts 2 to 4). The conclusions and recommendations of the study appear in four parts : Part 1 analyses the potential consequences for employment of climatic warming in Europe; Part 2 presents the objectives, the hypotheses and the methodology of the 'impact of CO2 emission reduction measures' division; Part 3 analyses the foreseeable effects of CO2 emission reduction measures on employment in Europe; Part 4 offers general (or sector-wide) recommendations for measures and policies to promote positive effects and prevent negative effects. The concluding part discusses the uncertainties and identifies the questions deserving further investigation.

  4. Collective emission of matter-wave jets from driven Bose-Einstein condensates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, Logan W; Gaj, Anita; Feng, Lei; Chin, Cheng

    2017-11-16

    Scattering is used to probe matter and its interactions in all areas of physics. In ultracold atomic gases, control over pairwise interactions enables us to investigate scattering in quantum many-body systems. Previous experiments on colliding Bose-Einstein condensates have revealed matter-wave interference, haloes of scattered atoms, four-wave mixing and correlations between counter-propagating pairs. However, a regime with strong stimulation of spontaneous collisions analogous to superradiance has proved elusive. In this regime, the collisions rapidly produce highly correlated states with macroscopic population. Here we find that runaway stimulated collisions in Bose-Einstein condensates with periodically modulated interaction strength cause the collective emission of matter-wave jets that resemble fireworks. Jets appear only above a threshold modulation amplitude and their correlations are invariant even when the number of ejected atoms grows exponentially. Hence, we show that the structures and atom occupancies of the jets stem from the quantum fluctuations of the condensate. Our findings demonstrate the conditions required for runaway stimulated collisions and reveal the quantum nature of matter-wave emission.

  5. Future CO2 Emissions and Climate Change from Existing Energy Infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, S. J.; Caldeira, K.; Matthews, D.

    2010-12-01

    If current greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations remain constant, the world would be committed to several centuries of increasing global mean temperatures and sea level rise. By contrast, near elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions would be required to produce diminishing GHG concentrations consistent with stabilization of mean temperatures. Yet long-lived energy and transportation infrastructure now operating can be expected to contribute substantial CO2 emissions over the next 50 years. Barring widespread retrofitting of existing power plants with carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies or the early decommissioning of serviceable infrastructure, these “committed emissions” represent infrastructural inertia which may be the primary contributor to total future warming commitment. With respect to GHG emissions, infrastructural inertia may be thought of as having two important and overlapping components: (i) infrastructure that directly releases GHGs to the atmosphere, and (ii) infrastructure that contributes to the continued production of devices that emit GHGs to the atmosphere. For example, the interstate highway and refueling infrastructure in the United States facilitates continued production of gasoline-powered automobiles. Here, we focus only on the warming commitment from infrastructure that directly releases CO2 to the atmosphere. Essentially, we answer the question: What if no additional CO2-emitting devices (e.g., power plants, motor vehicles) were built, but all the existing CO2-emitting devices were allowed to live out their normal lifetimes? What CO2 levels and global mean temperatures would we attain? Of course, the actual lifetime of devices may be strongly influenced by economic and policy constraints. For instance, a ban on new CO2-emitting devices would create tremendous incentive to prolong the lifetime of existing devices. Thus, our scenarios are not realistic, but offer a means of gauging the threat of climate change from existing

  6. Relative Contributions of Mean-State Shifts and ENSO-Driven Variability to Precipitation Changes in a Warming Climate*

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bonfils, Céline J. W.; Santer, Benjamin D.; Phillips, Thomas J.; Marvel, Kate; Leung, L. Ruby; Doutriaux, Charles; Capotondi, Antonietta

    2015-12-01

    The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important driver of regional hydroclimate variability through far-reaching teleconnections. Most climate models project an increase in the frequency of extreme El Niño events under increased greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing. However, it is unclear how other aspects of ENSO and ENSO-driven teleconnections will evolve in the future. Here, we identify in 20th century sea-surface temperature (SST) observations a time-invariant ENSO-like (ENSOL) pattern that is largely uncontaminated by GHG forcing. We use this pattern to investigate the future precipitation (P) response to ENSO-like SST anomalies. Models that better capture observed ENSOL characteristics produce P teleconnection patterns that are in better accord with observations and more stationary in the 21st century. We decompose the future P response to ENSOL into the sum of three terms: (1) the change in P mean state, (2) the historical P response to ENSOL, and (3) a future enhancement in the P response to ENSOL. In many regions, this last term can aggravate the P extremes associated with ENSO variability. This simple decomposition allows us to identify regions likely to experience ENSOL-induced P changes that are without precedent in the current climate.

  7. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J; Hearty, Paul J; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  8. Assessing “Dangerous Climate Change”: Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Delmotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; Rockstrom, Johan; Rohling, Eelco J.; Sachs, Jeffrey; Smith, Pete; Steffen, Konrad; Van Susteren, Lise; von Schuckmann, Karina; Zachos, James C.

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth’s measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today’s young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur “slow” feedbacks and eventual warming of 3–4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth’s energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels. PMID:24312568

  9. Assessing "dangerous climate change": required reduction of carbon emissions to protect young people, future generations and nature.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James Hansen

    Full Text Available We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of ∼500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of ∼1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2°C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4°C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  10. Assessing 'Dangerous Climate Change': Required Reduction of Carbon Emissions to Protect Young People, Future Generations and Nature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hansen, James; Kharecha, Pushker; Sato, Makiko; Masson-Demotte, Valerie; Ackerman, Frank; Beerling, David J.; Hearty, Paul J.; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Hsu, Shi-Ling; Parmesan, Camille; hide

    2013-01-01

    We assess climate impacts of global warming using ongoing observations and paleoclimate data. We use Earth's measured energy imbalance, paleoclimate data, and simple representations of the global carbon cycle and temperature to define emission reductions needed to stabilize climate and avoid potentially disastrous impacts on today's young people, future generations, and nature. A cumulative industrial-era limit of approx.500 GtC fossil fuel emissions and 100 GtC storage in the biosphere and soil would keep climate close to the Holocene range to which humanity and other species are adapted. Cumulative emissions of approx.1000 GtC, sometimes associated with 2 C global warming, would spur "slow" feedbacks and eventual warming of 3-4 C with disastrous consequences. Rapid emissions reduction is required to restore Earth's energy balance and avoid ocean heat uptake that would practically guarantee irreversible effects. Continuation of high fossil fuel emissions, given current knowledge of the consequences, would be an act of extraordinary witting intergenerational injustice. Responsible policymaking requires a rising price on carbon emissions that would preclude emissions from most remaining coal and unconventional fossil fuels and phase down emissions from conventional fossil fuels.

  11. Variations in Modeled Dengue Transmission over Puerto Rico Using a Climate Driven Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morin, Cory; Monaghan, Andrew; Crosson, William; Quattrochi, Dale; Luvall, Jeffrey

    2014-01-01

    Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne viral disease reemerging throughout much of the tropical Americas. Dengue virus transmission is explicitly influenced by climate and the environment through its primary vector, Aedes aegypti. Temperature regulates Ae. aegypti development, survival, and replication rates as well as the incubation period of the virus within the mosquito. Precipitation provides water for many of the preferred breeding habitats of the mosquito, including buckets, old tires, and other places water can collect. Because of variations in topography, ocean influences and atmospheric processes, temperature and rainfall patterns vary across Puerto Rico and so do dengue virus transmission rates. Using NASA's TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) satellite for precipitation input, ground-based observations for temperature input, and laboratory confirmed dengue cases reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for parameter calibration, we modeled dengue transmission at the county level across Puerto Rico from 2010-2013 using a dynamic dengue transmission model that includes interacting vector ecology and epidemiological components. Employing a Monte Carlo approach, we performed ensembles of several thousands of model simulations for each county in order to resolve the model uncertainty arising from using different combinations of parameter values that are not well known. The top 1% of model simulations that best reproduced the reported dengue case data were then analyzed to determine the most important parameters for dengue virus transmission in each county, as well as the relative influence of climate variability on transmission. These results can be used by public health workers to implement dengue control methods that are targeted for specific locations and climate conditions.

  12. Coupled European and Greenland last glacial dust activity driven by North Atlantic climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Újvári, Gábor; Stevens, Thomas; Molnár, Mihály

    2017-01-01

    Centennial-scale mineral dust peaks in last glacial Greenland ice cores match the timing of lowest Greenland temperatures, yet little is known of equivalent changes in dust-emitting regions, limiting our understanding of dust−climate interaction. Here, we present the most detailed and precise age...... model for European loess dust deposits to date, based on 125 accelerator mass spectrometry14C ages from Dunaszekcso, } Hungary. The record shows that variations in glacial dust deposition variability on centennial–millennial timescales in east central Europe and Greenland were synchronous within...

  13. On the potential of laser driven isotope generation at ELI-NP for positron emission tomography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cucoanes, A. S.; Balabanski, D. L.; Canova, F.; Cuong, P.; Negoita, F.; Puicea, F.; Tanaka, K. A.

    2017-05-01

    The huge progress made in the laser driven ion acceleration had open the possibility of using ions generated in high power laser interactions with solid targets for the production of medical isotopes. Indeed, lasers could provide several key features with respect to the traditional method where the target activation is produced by particle beams delivered by cyclotrons. The price and the dimensions of high power lasers are on a descendant slope and the quality of the produced ion beams is continuously increasing. However, in order to compete with cyclotrons, the average proton current intensity has to be increased for example by increasing the frequency of the laser pulses. In our contribution, we review the general ideas of the laser-based radioisotope production and we present our analysis on the potential of the medical isotope generation at ELI-NP with a focus on 18F. We use estimations of the proton beam parameters and a code implemented in Geant4 for computing the yield of the main production channel taking into account the experimental conditions available soon at ELI-NP. The obtained results are compatible with previous studies and will be verified by experiments foreseen at the future ELI-NP facility, under construction now in Magurele, Romania.

  14. High field terahertz emission from relativistic laser-driven plasma wakefields

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Zi-Yu, E-mail: Ziyu.Chen@uni-duesseldorf.de [Institut für Theoretische Physik I, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf 40225 (Germany); LSD, Institute of Fluid Physics, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621999 (China); Pukhov, Alexander [Institut für Theoretische Physik I, Heinrich-Heine-Universität Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf 40225 (Germany)

    2015-10-15

    We propose a method to generate high field terahertz (THz) radiation with peak strength of GV/cm level in the THz frequency gap range of 1–10 THz using a relativistic laser interaction with a gaseous plasma target. Due to the effect of local pump depletion, an initially Gaussian laser pulse undergoes leading edge erosion and eventually evolves to a state with leading edge being step function. Interacting with such a pulse, electrons gain transverse residual momentum and excite net transverse currents modulated by the relativistic plasma frequency. These currents give rise to the low frequency THz emission. We demonstrate this process with one and two dimensional particle-in-cell simulations.

  15. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brandt, Martin Stefan; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep

    2017-01-01

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody...... an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km2), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody...... cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO2, and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services...

  16. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could

  17. Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rachel Lowe

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003, the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003, mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality

  18. Whitebark pine vulnerability to climate-driven mountain pine beetle disturbance in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Logan, Jesse A; MacFarlane, William W; Willcox, Louisa

    2010-06-01

    Widespread outbreaks of mountain pine beetles (MPB) are occurring throughout the range of this native insect. Episodic outbreaks are a common occurrence in the beetles' primary host, lodgepole pine. Current outbreaks, however, are occurring in habitats where outbreaks either did not previously occur or were limited in scale. Herein, we address widespread, ongoing outbreaks in high-elevation, whitebark pine forests of the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, where, due to an inhospitable climate, past outbreaks were infrequent and short lived. We address the basic question: are these outbreaks truly unprecedented and a threat to ecosystem continuity? In order to evaluate this question we (1) present evidence that the current outbreak is outside the historic range of variability; (2) examine system resiliency to MPB disturbance based on adaptation to disturbance and host defenses to MPB attack; and (3) investigate the potential domain of attraction to large-scale MPB disturbance based on thermal developmental thresholds, spatial structure of forest types, and the confounding influence of an introduced pathogen. We conclude that the loss of dominant whitebark pine forests, and the ecological services they provide, is likely under continuing climate warming and that new research and strategies are needed to respond to the crisis facing whitebark pine.

  19. Black carbon emission reduction strategies in healthcare industry for effective global climate change management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raila, Emilia Mmbando; Anderson, David O

    2017-04-01

    Climate change remains one of the biggest threats to life on earth to date with black carbon (BC) emissions or smoke being the strongest cause after carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Surprisingly, scientific evidence about black carbon emissions reduction in healthcare settings is sparse. This paper presents new research findings on the reduction of black carbon emissions from an observational study conducted at the UN Peacekeeping Operations (MINUSTAH) in Haiti in 2014. Researchers observed 20 incineration cycles, 30 minutes for each cycle of plastic and cardboard sharps healthcare waste (HCW) containers ranged from 3 to 14.6 kg. The primary aim was to determine if black carbon emissions from healthcare waste incineration can be lowered by mainstreaming the use of cardboard sharps healthcare waste containers instead of plastic sharps healthcare waste containers. Similarly, the study looks into whether burning temperature was associated with the smoke levels for each case or not. Independent samples t-tests demonstrated significantly lower black carbon emissions during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers (6.81 ± 4.79% smoke) than in plastic containers (17.77 ± 8.38% smoke); a statistically significant increase of 10.96% smoke (95% Confidence Interval ( CI) [4.4 to 17.5% smoke], p = 0.003). Correspondingly, lower bottom burner temperatures occurred during the incineration of cardboard sharps containers than in plastic (95% Cl [16 to 126°C], p = 0.014). Finally, we expect the application of the new quantitative evidence to form the basis for policy formulation, mainstream the use of cardboard sharps containers and opt for non-incineration disposal technologies as urgent steps for going green in healthcare waste management.

  20. Climate change science : high quality greenhouse gas emissions data are a cornerstone of programs to address climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-02-24

    This testimony focuses on (1) the importance of quality data on emissions in the context of a program intended to limit greenhouse gas emissions, and (2) key considerations in developing reliable data on greenhouse gas emissions. This testimony is ba...

  1. The contribution of China’s emissions to global climate forcing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bengang; Gasser, Thomas; Ciais, Philippe; Piao, Shilong; Tao, Shu; Balkanski, Yves; Hauglustaine, Didier; Boisier, Juan-Pablo; Chen, Zhuo; Huang, Mengtian; Li, Laurent Zhaoxin; Li, Yue; Liu, Hongyan; Liu, Junfeng; Peng, Shushi; Shen, Zehao; Sun, Zhenzhong; Wang, Rong; Wang, Tao; Yin, Guodong; Yin, Yi; Zeng, Hui; Zeng, Zhenzhong; Zhou, Feng

    2016-03-01

    Knowledge of the contribution that individual countries have made to global radiative forcing is important to the implementation of the agreement on “common but differentiated responsibilities” reached by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Over the past three decades, China has experienced rapid economic development, accompanied by increased emission of greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and aerosols, but the magnitude of the associated radiative forcing has remained unclear. Here we use a global coupled biogeochemistry-climate model and a chemistry and transport model to quantify China’s present-day contribution to global radiative forcing due to well-mixed greenhouse gases, short-lived atmospheric climate forcers and land-use-induced regional surface albedo changes. We find that China contributes 10% ± 4% of the current global radiative forcing. China’s relative contribution to the positive (warming) component of global radiative forcing, mainly induced by well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon aerosols, is 12% ± 2%. Its relative contribution to the negative (cooling) component is 15% ± 6%, dominated by the effect of sulfate and nitrate aerosols. China’s strongest contributions are 0.16 ± 0.02 watts per square metre for CO2 from fossil fuel burning, 0.13 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for CH4, -0.11 ± 0.05 watts per square metre for sulfate aerosols, and 0.09 ± 0.06 watts per square metre for black carbon aerosols. China’s eventual goal of improving air quality will result in changes in radiative forcing in the coming years: a reduction of sulfur dioxide emissions would drive a faster future warming, unless offset by larger reductions of radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases and black carbon.

  2. Energy transfer driven tunable emission of Tb/Eu co-doped lanthanum molybdate nanophosphors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas, Kukku; Alexander, Dinu; Sisira, S.; Gopi, Subash; Biju, P. R.; Unnikrishnan, N. V.; Joseph, Cyriac

    2018-06-01

    Tb3+/Eu3+ co-doped lanthanum molybdate nanophosphors were synthesized by conventional co-precipitation method. The Powder X-ray diffractogram revealed the formation of highly crystalline tetragonal nanocrystals with space group I41/a and the detailed analysis of the small variation of lattice parameters with Tb/Eu co-doping on the host lattice were carried out based on the ionic radii of the dopants. The FTIR spectra is employed to identify the fundamental vibrational modes in La2-x-y (MoO4)3:xTb, yEu nanocrystals. The formation of nanocrystals by oriented attachment was recognized from the HR TEM images and the d-spacing calculated was in accordance with that corresponding to highest intensity diffraction peak in the XRD patterns. The constituent elements present in the samples were identified with the aid of EDAX and elemental mapping analysis. The broad Mo6+- O2- CTB and the sharp excitation peaks of Tb and Eu identified from the UV-Vis absorption spectra facilitates the suitability of exciting the phosphors effectively over NUV and visible region of the spectra. The possibility of energy transfer from host to Tb3+/Eu3+ ions and from Tb3+ to Eu3+ ions were confirmed from the PL excitation spectra monitoring 5D0→7F2 transition of Eu3+ ions around 615 nm. The correlated analysis of PL emission spectra, life time measurements and CIE diagram, upon different excitation channels elucidate the excellent luminescent properties of La2-x-y (MoO4)3:xTb, yEu nanophosphors with tunable emission colours in a wide range varying from yellow green region to reddish orange region and the efficient energy transfer from Tb3+ to Eu3+ ions in lanthanum molybdate host lattice. The Tb→Eu energy transfer efficiency and probability were calculated from the decay measurements and the values were found to be satisfactory for exploiting the prepared nanophosphors for the development of multifunctional luminescent nanophosphors.

  3. Climate-driven changes to the atmospheric CO2 sink in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dore, John E; Lukas, Roger; Sadler, Daniel W; Karl, David M

    2003-08-14

    The oceans represent a significant sink for atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variability in the strength of this sink occurs on interannual timescales, as a result of regional and basin-scale changes in the physical and biological parameters that control the flux of this greenhouse gas into and out of the surface mixed layer. Here we analyse a 13-year time series of oceanic carbon dioxide measurements from station ALOHA in the subtropical North Pacific Ocean near Hawaii, and find a significant decrease in the strength of the carbon dioxide sink over the period 1989-2001. We show that much of this reduction in sink strength can be attributed to an increase in the partial pressure of surface ocean carbon dioxide caused by excess evaporation and the accompanying concentration of solutes in the water mass. Our results suggest that carbon dioxide uptake by ocean waters can be strongly influenced by changes in regional precipitation and evaporation patterns brought on by climate variability.

  4. Animal culture impacts species' capacity to realise climate-driven range shifts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Keith, Sally A.; Bull, Joseph William

    2017-01-01

    Ecological predictions of how species will shift their geographical distributions under climate change generally consider individuals as machines that respond optimally to changing environmental conditions. However, animals frequently make active behavioural decisions based on imperfect information...... about their external environment, potentially mediated by information transmitted through social learning (i.e. culture). Vertical transmission of culture (between generations) might encourage conservative behaviour, constraining the ability of a species to respond, whilst horizontal transmission...... (within generations) can encourage innovation and so facilitate dynamic responses to a changing environment. We believe that the time is right to unite recent advances in ecological modelling and behavioural understanding to explicitly incorporate the influence of animal culture into future predictions...

  5. Climate-driven vertical acceleration of Icelandic crust measured by continuous GPS geodesy

    KAUST Repository

    Compton, Kathleen; Bennett, Richard A.; Hreinsdó ttir, Sigrú n

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 The Authors. Earth's present-day response to enhanced glacial melting resulting from climate change can be measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. We present data from 62 continuously operating GPS instruments in Iceland. Statistically significant upward velocity and accelerations are recorded at 27 GPS stations, predominantly located in the Central Highlands region of Iceland, where present-day thinning of the Iceland ice caps results in velocities of more than 30mm/yr and uplift accelerations of 1-2mm/yr2. We use our acceleration estimates to back calculate to a time of zero velocity, which coincides with the initiation of ice loss in Iceland from ice mass balance calculations and Arctic warming trends. We show, through a simple inversion, a direct relationship between ice mass balance measurements and vertical position and show that accelerated unloading is required to reproduce uplift observations for a simple elastic layer over viscoelastic half-space model.

  6. Recent, climate-driven river incision rate fluctuations in the Mercantour crystalline massif, southern French Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, C.; Goren, L.; Rolland, Y.; Bourlès, D.; Braucher, R.; Saillard, M.; Cassol, D.

    2017-06-01

    We present a new geomorphological analysis of the Tinée River tributaries in the southern French Alps based on numerical inverse and forward modelling of their longitudinal profiles. We model their relative uplift history with respect to the main channel, hence the incision rate history of this channel. Inverse models show that all tributaries have consistent incision rate histories with alternating high and low values. A comparison with global temperature curves shows that these variations correlate with quaternary climate changes. We suggest that during warm periods, a wave of regressive erosion propagates in the Tinée River, while its tributaries deeply incise their substratum to catch up with the falling base-level. We also show that the post 140 ka history of this landscape evolution is dominated by fluvial incision. We then perform forward models of river incision and simulate the incision of the Tinée River system over a time span of 600 ka. This model allows us to extract time and space incision rate variations of the Tinée River. With a background of a few mm.yr-1, incision rate can increase up to more than 1 cm yr-1 during short periods of time due to climatic oscillations. This result is compatible with published cosmogenic nuclide based dating, which evidenced incision rates from 0.2 to 24 mm yr-1. The part of the channel located between 12 and 20 km downstream from the source has undergone several periods of rapid incision rates, which could explain the steep hillslopes and the triggering of a landslide ∼10 ka ago.

  7. Examination of the optimal operation of building scale combined heat and power systems under disparate climate and GHG emissions rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Howard, B.; Modi, V.

    2017-01-01

    Highlights: • CHP attributable reductions, not viable by electric generation alone, are defined. • Simplified operating strategy heuristics are optimal under specific circumstances. • Phosphoric acid fuel cells yield the largest reductions except in the extremes. • Changes in baseline emissions affect the optimal system capacity and operating hours. - Abstract: This work aims to elucidate notions concerning the ideal operation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions benefits of combined heat and power (CHP) systems by investigating how various metrics change as a function of the GHG emissions from the underlying electricity source, building use type and climate. Additionally, a new term entitled “CHP Attributable” reductions is introduced to quantify the benefits from the simultaneous use of thermal and electric energy, removing benefits achieved solely from fuel switching and generating electricity more efficiently. The GHG emission benefits from implementing internal combustion engine, microturbines, and phosphoric acid (PA) fuel cell based CHP systems were evaluated through an optimization approach considering energy demands of prototypical hospital, office, and residential buildings in varied climates. To explore the effect of electric GHG emissions rates, the ideal operation of the CHP systems was evaluated under three scenarios: “High” GHG emissions rates, “Low” GHG emissions rates, and “Current” GHG emissions rate for a specific location. The analysis finds that PA fuel cells achieve the highest GHG emission reductions in most cases considered, though there are exceptions. Common heuristics, such as electric load following and thermal load following, are the optimal operating strategy under specific conditions. The optimal CHP capacity and operating hours both vary as a function of building type, climate and GHG emissions rates from grid electricity. GHG emissions reductions can be as high as 49% considering a PA fuel cell for a

  8. Detection of respiratory tumour motion using intrinsic list mode-driven gating in positron emission tomography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büther, Florian; Ernst, Iris; Dawood, Mohammad; Kraxner, Peter; Schäfers, Michael; Schober, Otmar; Schäfers, Klaus P

    2010-12-01

    Respiratory motion of organs during PET scans is known to degrade PET image quality, potentially resulting in blurred images, attenuation artefacts and erroneous tracer quantification. List mode-based gating has been shown to reduce these pitfalls in cardiac PET. This study evaluates these intrinsic gating methods for tumour PET scans. A total of 34 patients with liver or lung tumours (14 liver tumours and 27 lung tumours in all) underwent a 15-min single-bed list mode PET scan of the tumour region. Of these, 15 patients (8 liver and 11 lung tumours in total) were monitored by a video camera registering a marker on the patient's abdomen, thus capturing the respiratory motion for PET gating (video method). Further gating information was deduced by dividing the list mode stream into 200-ms frames, determining the number of coincidences (sensitivity method) and computing the axial centre of mass of the measured count rates in the same frames (centre of mass method). Additionally, these list mode-based methods were evaluated using only coincidences originating from the tumour region by segmenting the tumour in sinogram space (segmented sensitivity/centre of mass method). Measured displacement of the tumours between end-expiration and end-inspiration and the increase in apparent uptake in the gated images served as a measure for the exactness of gating. To estimate the accuracy, a thorax phantom study with moved activity sources simulating small tumours was also performed. All methods resolved the respiratory motion with varying success. The best results were seen in the segmented centre of mass method, on average leading to larger displacements and uptake values than the other methods. The simple centre of mass method performed worse in terms of displacements due to activities moving into the field of view during the respiratory cycle. Both sensitivity- and video-based methods lead to similar results. List mode-driven PET gating, especially the segmented centre of mass

  9. Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, Kevin D; Crooks, Stephen; Moseman-Valtierra, Serena; Tang, Jianwu

    2017-09-20

    Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as "Blue Carbon"), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH 4 ) and CO 2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH 4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

  10. Restoring tides to reduce methane emissions in impounded wetlands: A new and potent Blue Carbon climate change intervention

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, Kevin D.; Crooks, Stephen; Moseman-Valtierra, Serena; Tang, Jianwu

    2017-01-01

    Coastal wetlands are sites of rapid carbon (C) sequestration and contain large soil C stocks. Thus, there is increasing interest in those ecosystems as sites for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission offset projects (sometimes referred to as “Blue Carbon”), through preservation of existing C stocks or creation of new wetlands to increase future sequestration. Here we show that in the globally-widespread occurrence of diked, impounded, drained and tidally-restricted salt marshes, substantial methane (CH4) and CO2 emission reductions can be achieved through restoration of disconnected saline tidal flows. Modeled climatic forcing indicates that tidal restoration to reduce emissions has a much greater impact per unit area than wetland creation or conservation to enhance sequestration. Given that GHG emissions in tidally-restricted, degraded wetlands are caused by human activity, they are anthropogenic emissions, and reducing them will have an effect on climate that is equivalent to reduced emission of an equal quantity of fossil fuel GHG. Thus, as a landuse-based climate change intervention, reducing CH4 emissions is an entirely distinct concept from biological C sequestration projects to enhance C storage in forest or wetland biomass or soil, and will not suffer from the non-permanence risk that stored C will be returned to the atmosphere.

  11. Alignment of policies to maximize the climate benefits of diesel vehicles through control of particulate matter and black carbon emissions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Minjares, Ray; Blumberg, Kate; Posada Sanchez, Francisco

    2013-01-01

    Diesel vehicles offer greater fuel-efficiency and lower greenhouse gas emissions at a time when national governments seek to reduce the energy and climate impacts of the vehicle fleet. Policies that promote diesels like preferential fuel taxes, fuel economy standards and greenhouse gas emission standards can produce higher emissions of diesel particulate matter if diesel particulate filters or equivalent emission control technology is not in place. This can undermine the expected climate benefits of dieselization and increase impacts on public health. This paper takes a historical look at Europe to illustrate the degree to which dieselization and lax controls on particulate matter can undermine the potential benefits sought from diesel vehicles. We show that countries on the dieselization pathway can fully capture the value of diesels with the adoption of tailpipe emission standards equivalent to Euro 6 or Tier 2 for passenger cars, and fuel quality standards that limit the sulfur content of diesel fuel to no greater than 15 ppm. Adoption of these policies before or in parallel with adoption of fuel consumption and greenhouse gas standards can avert the negative impacts of dieselization. - Highlights: ► Preferential tax policies have increased the dieselization of some light-duty vehicle fleets. ► Dieselization paired with lax emission standards produces large black carbon emissions. ► Diesel black carbon undermines the perceived climate benefits of diesel vehicles. ► Stringent controls on diesel particulate emissions will also reduce black carbon. ► Euro 6/VI equivalent emission standards can preserve the climate benefits of diesel vehicles

  12. Dealing with surplus emissions in the climate negotiations after Copenhagen: What are the options for compromise?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elzen, Michel den; Roelfsema, Mark; Slingerland, Stephan

    2010-01-01

    This paper analyses the environmental and financial consequences of various strategies of dealing with surplus emission allowances in the aftermath of the Copenhagen Accord. This topic remains relevant, in particular, with respect to the Russian negotiation position, as this country is the largest holder of surplus emissions. It is concluded that not addressing the surplus problem is not a feasible negotiation option, as the sheer size of the surpluses would jeopardise the environmental integrity of any future agreement. Cancelling surpluses against Russia's will, though viable, is not desirable, as it might well lead to this country opting out of this climate treaty. Three options for compromise have been selected and analysed here: (1) stricter targets for Annex I countries; (2) strategic reserve for Russia; (3) institutionalising optimal banking. It is concluded that, whereas option 1 is environmentally the best, in the present political context it is probably less feasible. The other two options, although environmentally suboptimal, seem politically more favourable. Our analysis suggests that maximal revenues for surplus-holding countries arise by releasing only a limited amount of surplus credits to the market. The institutionalisation of this effect could be a key lever to a politically feasible agreement on surplus emissions.

  13. Human population growth offsets climate-driven increase in woody vegetation in sub-Saharan Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brandt, Martin; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Peñuelas, Josep; Tian, Feng; Schurgers, Guy; Verger, Aleixandre; Mertz, Ole; Palmer, John R B; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2017-03-06

    The rapidly growing human population in sub-Saharan Africa generates increasing demand for agricultural land and forest products, which presumably leads to deforestation. Conversely, a greening of African drylands has been reported, but this has been difficult to associate with changes in woody vegetation. There is thus an incomplete understanding of how woody vegetation responds to socio-economic and environmental change. Here we used a passive microwave Earth observation data set to document two different trends in land area with woody cover for 1992-2011: 36% of the land area (6,870,000 km 2 ) had an increase in woody cover largely in drylands, and 11% had a decrease (2,150,000 km 2 ), mostly in humid zones. Increases in woody cover were associated with low population growth, and were driven by increases in CO 2 in the humid zones and by increases in precipitation in drylands, whereas decreases in woody cover were associated with high population growth. The spatially distinct pattern of these opposing trends reflects, first, the natural response of vegetation to precipitation and atmospheric CO 2 , and second, deforestation in humid areas, minor in size but important for ecosystem services, such as biodiversity and carbon stocks. This nuanced picture of changes in woody cover challenges widely held views of a general and ongoing reduction of the woody vegetation in Africa.

  14. Regional Climate Modeling and Remote Sensing to Characterize Impacts of Civil War Driven Land Use Change on Regional Hydrology and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maksimowicz, M.; Masarik, M. T.; Brandt, J.; Flores, A. N.

    2016-12-01

    Land use/land cover (LULC) change directly impacts the partitioning of surface mass and energy fluxes. Regional-scale weather and climate are potentially altered by LULC if the resultant changes in partitioning of surface energy fluxes are extensive enough. Dynamics of land use, particularly those related to the social dimensions of the Earth System, are often simplified or not represented in regional land-atmosphere models. This study explores the role of LULC change on a regional hydroclimate system, focusing on potential hydroclimate changes arising from an extended civil conflict in Mozambique. Civil war from 1977-1992 in Mozambique led to land use change at a regional scale as a result of the collapse of large herbivore populations due to poaching. Since the war ended, farming has increased, poaching was curtailed, and animal populations were reintroduced. In this study LULC in a region encompassing Gorongosa is classified at three instances between 1977 to 2015 using Landsat imagery. We use these derived LULC datasets to inform lower boundary conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. To quantify potential hydrometeorological changes arising from conflict-driven land use change, we performed a factorial-like experiment by mixing input LULC maps and atmospheric forcing data from before, during, and after the civil war. Analysis of the Landsat data shows measurable land cover change from 1977-present as tree cover encroached into grasslands. Initial tests show corresponding sensitivities to different LULC schemes within the WRF model. Preliminary results suggest that the war did indeed impact regional hydroclimate in a significant way via its direct and indirect impacts on land-atmosphere interactions. Results of this study suggest that LULC change arising from regional conflicts are a potentially understudied, yet important human process to capture in both regional reanalyses and climate change projections.

  15. Historical Responsibility for Climate Change - from countries emissions to contribution to temperature increase

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapp, Mario; Gütschow, Johannes; Rocha, Marcia; Schaeffer, Michiel

    2016-04-01

    The notion of historical responsibility is central to the equity debate and the measure of responsibility as a countries' share of historical global emissions remains one of the essential parameters in so-called equity proposals, which attempt to distribute effort among countries in an equitable manner. The focus of this contribution is on the historical contribution of countries, but it takes it one step further: its general objective lies on estimating countries' contribution directly to the change in climate. The historical responsibility is not based on cumulative emissions but instead measured in terms of the countries' estimated contribution to the increase in global-mean surface-air temperature. This is achieved by (1) compiling a historical emissions dataset for the period from 1850 until 2012 for each individual Kyoto-greenhouse gas and each UNFCCC Party using a consistent methodology and (2) applying those historical emissions to a revised version of the so-called Policy-maker Model put forward by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the Federative Republic of Brazil, which is a simple, yet powerful tool that allows historical GHG emissions of individual countries to be directly related to their effect on global temperature changes. We estimate that the cumulative GHG emissions until 2012 from the USA, the European Union and China contribute to a total temperature increase of about 0.50°C in 2100, which is equivalent to about 50% of the temperature increase from total global GHG emissions by that year (of about 1.0°C). Respectively, the USA, the European Union, and China are responsible for 20.2%, 17.3%, and 12.1% of global temperature increase in 2100. Russian historical emissions are responsible for 0.06°C temperature increase by 2100, ranking as the fourth largest contributor to temperature increase with 6.2% of the total contribution. India ranks fifth: Indian emissions to date would contribute to roughly 0.05°C of global mean temperature

  16. Climate-driven vertical acceleration of Icelandic crust measured by continuous GPS geodesy

    KAUST Repository

    Compton, Kathleen

    2015-02-06

    © 2015 The Authors. Earth\\'s present-day response to enhanced glacial melting resulting from climate change can be measured using Global Positioning System (GPS) technology. We present data from 62 continuously operating GPS instruments in Iceland. Statistically significant upward velocity and accelerations are recorded at 27 GPS stations, predominantly located in the Central Highlands region of Iceland, where present-day thinning of the Iceland ice caps results in velocities of more than 30mm/yr and uplift accelerations of 1-2mm/yr2. We use our acceleration estimates to back calculate to a time of zero velocity, which coincides with the initiation of ice loss in Iceland from ice mass balance calculations and Arctic warming trends. We show, through a simple inversion, a direct relationship between ice mass balance measurements and vertical position and show that accelerated unloading is required to reproduce uplift observations for a simple elastic layer over viscoelastic half-space model.

  17. Feedback-driven response to multidecadal climatic variability at an alpine treeline

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alftine, K.J.; Malanson, G.P.; Fagre, D.B.

    2003-01-01

    The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has significant climatological and ecological effects in northwestern North America. Its possible effects and their modification by feedbacks are examined in the forest-tundra ecotone in Glacier National Park, Montana, USA. Tree ring samples were collected to estimate establishment dates in 10 quadrats. Age-diameter regressions were used to estimate the ages of uncored trees. The temporal pattern of establishment and survival was compared to the pattern of the PDO. A wave of establishment began in the mid-1940s, rose to a peak rate in the mid-1970s, and dropped precipitously beginning ca. 1980 to near zero for the 1990s. The period of establishment primarily coincided with the negative phase of the PDO, but the establishment and survival pattern is not correlated with the PDO index. The pattern indicates a period during which establishment was possible and was augmented by positive feedback from surviving trees. Snow may be the most important factor in the feedback, but studies indicate that its effects vary locally. Spatially differentiated analyses of decadal or longer periodicity may elucidate responses to climatic variation. ?? 2003 by V. H. Winston and Son, Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Forecasting the poleward range expansion of an intertidal species driven by climate alterations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raquel Xavier

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Accurate distributional models can be used to reliably predict the response of organisms to climatic changes. Though such models have been extensively applied to terrestrial organisms, they have hardly ever been applied to the marine environment. Recent changes in the distribution of the marine gastropod Patella rustica (L. were previously modelled with Classification and Regression Tree (CART and the results revealed that increases in temperature were the major driver of those changes. However, the accuracy scores during the validation of the model were unsatisfactory, preventing its use for forecasting purposes. To fulfil this objective, in the present study a more robust method, Artificial Neural Network (ANN, was employed to produce a model suited to forecasting changes in the distribution of P. rustica. Results confirmed that the ANN model behaved better than the CART, and that it could be used for forecasting future distributional scenarios. The model forecasts that by the 2020s P. rustica is likely to expand its range at least 1000 km northwards. These results should be interpreted with caution considering the dispersal limitations of this species, but if such an expansion took place, major changes in the colonized ecosystems are expected due to the key role of limpets in intertidal communities.

  19. The treatment of climate-driven environmental change and associated uncertainty in post-closure assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wilmot, R.D.

    1993-01-01

    The post-closure performance of radioactive waste repositories is influenced by a range of processes such as groundwater flow and fracture movement which are in turn affected by conditions in the surface environment. For deep repositories the period for which an assessment must be performed is in the order of 10 6 years. The geological record of the last 10 6 years shows that surface environmental conditions have varied considerably over such time-scales. A model of surface environmental change, known as TIME4, has been developed on behalf of the UK Department of the Environment for use with the probabilistic risk assessment code VANDAL. This paper describes the extent of surface environmental change, discusses possible driving mechanisms for such changes and summarises the processes which have been incorporated within the TIME4 model. The underlying cause of change in surface environment sub-systems is inferred to be climate change but considerable uncertainty remains over the mechanisms of such change. Methods for treating these uncertainties are described. (author)

  20. Response of faults to climate-driven changes in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hampel, Andrea; Hetzel, Ralf; Maniatis, Georgios

    2010-05-28

    Numerical models including one or more faults in a rheologically stratified lithosphere show that climate-induced variations in ice and water volumes on Earth's surface considerably affect the slip evolution of both thrust and normal faults. In general, the slip rate and hence the seismicity of a fault decreases during loading and increases during unloading. Here, we present several case studies to show that a postglacial slip rate increase occurred on faults worldwide in regions where ice caps and lakes decayed at the end of the last glaciation. Of note is that the postglacial amplification of seismicity was not restricted to the areas beneath the large Laurentide and Fennoscandian ice sheets but also occurred in regions affected by smaller ice caps or lakes, e.g. the Basin-and-Range Province. Our results do not only have important consequences for the interpretation of palaeoseismological records from faults in these regions but also for the evaluation of the future seismicity in regions currently affected by deglaciation like Greenland and Antarctica: shrinkage of the modern ice sheets owing to global warming may ultimately lead to an increase in earthquake frequency in these regions.

  1. River piracy and drainage basin reorganization led by climate-driven glacier retreat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shugar, Daniel H.; Clague, John J.; Best, James L.; Schoof, Christian; Willis, Michael J.; Copland, Luke; Roe, Gerard H.

    2017-04-01

    River piracy--the diversion of the headwaters of one stream into another one--can dramatically change the routing of water and sediment, with a profound effect on landscape evolution. Stream piracy has been investigated in glacial environments, but so far it has mainly been studied over Quaternary or longer timescales. Here we document how retreat of Kaskawulsh Glacier--one of Canada's largest glaciers--abruptly and radically altered the regional drainage pattern in spring 2016. We use a combination of hydrological measurements and drone-generated digital elevation models to show that in late May 2016, meltwater from the glacier was re-routed from discharge in a northward direction into the Bering Sea, to southward into the Pacific Ocean. Based on satellite image analysis and a signal-to-noise ratio as a metric of glacier retreat, we conclude that this instance of river piracy was due to post-industrial climate change. Rapid regional drainage reorganizations of this type can have profound downstream impacts on ecosystems, sediment and carbon budgets, and downstream communities that rely on a stable and sustained discharge. We suggest that the planforms of Slims and Kaskawulsh rivers will adjust in response to altered flows, and the future Kaskawulsh watershed will extend into the now-abandoned headwaters of Slims River and eventually capture the Kluane Lake drainage.

  2. Climate policy through changing consumption choices: Options and obstacles for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Girod, B.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Hertwich, E.G.

    2014-01-01

    While national climate policy can address countries’ production or consumption, climate mitigation via changes in consumption has previously received relatively little attention in climate policy literature. In the absence of an effective international climate policy, the focus on consumption is

  3. Impact of wind-driven rain on historic brick wall buildings in a moderately cold and humid climate: Numerical analyses of mould growth risk, indoor climate and energy consumption

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Masaru, Abuku; Janssen, Hans; Roels, Staf

    2009-01-01

    This paper gives an onset to whole building hygrothermal modelling in which the interaction between interior and exterior climates via building enclosures is simulated under a moderately cold and humid climate. The focus is particularly on the impact of wind-driven rain (WDR) oil the hygrothermal...... response, mould growth at interior wall surfaces, indoor climate and energy consumption. First the WDR load oil the facades of a 4 m x 4 m x 10 m tower is determined. Then the hygrothermal behaviour of the brick walls is analysed oil a horizontal slice through the tower. The simulations demonstrate...

  4. Future atmospheric abundances and climate forcings from scenarios of global and regional hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velders, Guus J. M.; Fahey, David W.; Daniel, John S.; Andersen, Stephen O.; McFarland, Mack

    2015-12-01

    Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) are manufactured for use as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances that are being phased out globally under Montreal Protocol regulations. While HFCs do not deplete ozone, many are potent greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change. Here, new global scenarios show that baseline emissions of HFCs could reach 4.0-5.3 GtCO2-eq yr-1 in 2050. The new baseline (or business-as-usual) scenarios are formulated for 10 HFC compounds, 11 geographic regions, and 13 use categories. The scenarios rely on detailed data reported by countries to the United Nations; projections of gross domestic product and population; and recent observations of HFC atmospheric abundances. In the baseline scenarios, by 2050 China (31%), India and the rest of Asia (23%), the Middle East and northern Africa (11%), and the USA (10%) are the principal source regions for global HFC emissions; and refrigeration (40-58%) and stationary air conditioning (21-40%) are the major use sectors. The corresponding radiative forcing could reach 0.22-0.25 W m-2 in 2050, which would be 12-24% of the increase from business-as-usual CO2 emissions from 2015 to 2050. National regulations to limit HFC use have already been adopted in the European Union, Japan and USA, and proposals have been submitted to amend the Montreal Protocol to substantially reduce growth in HFC use. Calculated baseline emissions are reduced by 90% in 2050 by implementing the North America Montreal Protocol amendment proposal. Global adoption of technologies required to meet national regulations would be sufficient to reduce 2050 baseline HFC consumption by more than 50% of that achieved with the North America proposal for most developed and developing countries.

  5. Collaborative Project: The problem of bias in defining uncertainty in computationally enabled strategies for data-driven climate model development. Final Technical Report.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huerta, Gabriel [Univ. of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2016-05-10

    The objective of the project is to develop strategies for better representing scientific sensibilities within statistical measures of model skill that then can be used within a Bayesian statistical framework for data-driven climate model development and improved measures of model scientific uncertainty. One of the thorny issues in model evaluation is quantifying the effect of biases on climate projections. While any bias is not desirable, only those biases that affect feedbacks affect scatter in climate projections. The effort at the University of Texas is to analyze previously calculated ensembles of CAM3.1 with perturbed parameters to discover how biases affect projections of global warming. The hypothesis is that compensating errors in the control model can be identified by their effect on a combination of processes and that developing metrics that are sensitive to dependencies among state variables would provide a way to select version of climate models that may reduce scatter in climate projections. Gabriel Huerta at the University of New Mexico is responsible for developing statistical methods for evaluating these field dependencies. The UT effort will incorporate these developments into MECS, which is a set of python scripts being developed at the University of Texas for managing the workflow associated with data-driven climate model development over HPC resources. This report reflects the main activities at the University of New Mexico where the PI (Huerta) and the Postdocs (Nosedal, Hattab and Karki) worked on the project.

  6. Natural emissions under future climate condition and their effects on surface ozone in the Yangtze River Delta region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Min; Shu, Lei; Wang, Ti-jian; Liu, Qian; Gao, Da; Li, Shu; Zhuang, Bing-liang; Han, Yong; Li, Meng-meng; Chen, Pu-long

    2017-02-01

    The natural emissions of ozone precursors (NOx and VOCs) are sensitive to climate. Future climate change can impact O3 concentrations by perturbing these emissions. To better estimate the variation of natural emissions under different climate conditions and understand its effect on surface O3, we model the present and the future air quality over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region by running different simulations with the aid of the WRF-CALGRID model system that contains a natural emission module. Firstly, we estimate the natural emissions at present and in IPCC A1B scenario. The results show that biogenic VOC emission and soil NOx emission over YRD in 2008 is 657 Gg C and 19.1 Gg N, respectively. According to climate change, these emissions in 2050 will increase by 25.5% and 11.5%, respectively. Secondly, the effects of future natural emissions and meteorology on surface O3 are investigated and compared. It is found that the variations in meteorological fields can significantly alter the spatial distribution of O3 over YRD, with the increases of 5-15 ppb in the north and the decreases of -5 to -15 ppb in the south. However, only approximately 20% of the surface O3 increases caused by climate change can be attributed to the natural emissions, with the highest increment up to 2.4 ppb. Finally, Ra (the ratio of impacts from NOx and VOCs on O3 formation) and H2O2/HNO3 (the ratio between the concentrations of H2O2 and HNO3) are applied to study the O3 sensitivity in YRD. The results show that the transition value of H2O2/HNO3 will turn from 0.3 to 0.5 in 2008 to 0.4-0.8 in 2050. O3 formation in the YRD region will be insensitive to VOCs under future climate condition, implying more NOx need to be cut down. Our findings can help us understand O3 variation trend and put forward the reasonable and effective pollution control policies in these famous polluted areas.

  7. Climate change impact of livestock CH4 emission in India: Global temperature change potential (GTP) and surface temperature response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumari, Shilpi; Hiloidhari, Moonmoon; Kumari, Nisha; Naik, S N; Dahiya, R P

    2018-01-01

    Two climate metrics, Global surface Temperature Change Potential (GTP) and the Absolute GTP (AGTP) are used for studying the global surface temperature impact of CH 4 emission from livestock in India. The impact on global surface temperature is estimated for 20 and 100 year time frames due to CH 4 emission. The results show that the CH 4 emission from livestock, worked out to 15.3 Tg in 2012. In terms of climate metrics GTP of livestock-related CH 4 emission in India in 2012 were 1030 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 20 ) and 62 Tg CO 2 e (GTP 100 ) at the 20 and 100 year time horizon, respectively. The study also illustrates that livestock-related CH 4 emissions in India can cause a surface temperature increase of up to 0.7mK and 0.036mK over the 20 and 100 year time periods, respectively. The surface temperature response to a year of Indian livestock emission peaks at 0.9mK in the year 2021 (9 years after the time of emission). The AGTP gives important information in terms of temperature change due to annual CH 4 emissions, which is useful when comparing policies that address multiple gases. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Assessment of methane emission and oxidation at Air Hitam Landfill site cover soil in wet tropical climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abushammala, Mohammed F M; Basri, Noor Ezlin Ahmad; Elfithri, Rahmah

    2013-12-01

    Methane (CH₄) emissions and oxidation were measured at the Air Hitam sanitary landfill in Malaysia and were modeled using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change waste model to estimate the CH₄ generation rate constant, k. The emissions were measured at several locations using a fabricated static flux chamber. A combination of gas concentrations in soil profiles and surface CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions at four monitoring locations were used to estimate the CH₄ oxidation capacity. The temporal variations in CH₄ and CO₂ emissions were also investigated in this study. Geospatial means using point kriging and inverse distance weight (IDW), as well as arithmetic and geometric means, were used to estimate total CH₄ emissions. The point kriging, IDW, and arithmetic means were almost identical and were two times higher than the geometric mean. The CH₄ emission geospatial means estimated using the kriging and IDW methods were 30.81 and 30.49 gm(−2) day(−1), respectively. The total CH₄ emissions from the studied area were 53.8 kg day(−1). The mean of the CH₄ oxidation capacity was 27.5 %. The estimated value of k is 0.138 year(−1). Special consideration must be given to the CH₄ oxidation in the wet tropical climate for enhancing CH₄ emission reduction.

  9. The influence of climatically-driven surface loading variations on continental strain and seismicity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Tim; Calais, Eric; Fleitout, Luce; Bollinger, Laurent; Scotti, Oona

    2016-04-01

    In slowly deforming regions of plate interiors, secondary sources of stress and strain can result in transient deformation rates comparable to, or greater than, the background tectonic rates. Highly variable in space and time, these transients have the potential to influence the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity, interfering with any background tectonic effects to either promote or inhibit the failure of pre-existing faults, and potentially leading to a clustered, or 'pulse-like', seismic history. Here, we investigate the ways in which the large-scale deformation field resulting from climatically-controlled changes in surface ice mass over the Pleistocene and Holocene may have influenced not only the seismicity of glaciated regions, but also the wider seismicity around the ice periphery. We first use a set of geodynamic models to demonstrate that a major pulse of seismic activity occurring in Fennoscandia, coincident with the time of end-glaciation, occurred in a setting where the contemporaneous horizontal strain-rate resulting from the changing ice mass, was extensional - opposite to the reverse sense of coseismic displacement accommodated on these faults. Therefore, faulting did not release extensional elastic strain that was building up at the time of failure, but compressional elastic strain that had accumulated in the lithosphere on timescales longer than the glacial cycle, illustrating the potential for a non-tectonic trigger to tap in to the background tectonic stress-state. We then move on to investigate the more distal influence that changing ice (and ocean) volumes may have had on the evolving strain field across intraplate Europe, how this is reflected in the seismicity across intraplate Europe, and what impact this might have on the paleoseismic record.

  10. Variable H13CO+ Emission in the IM Lup Disk: X-Ray Driven Time-dependent Chemistry?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cleeves, L. Ilsedore; Bergin, Edwin A.; Öberg, Karin I.; Andrews, Sean; Wilner, David; Loomis, Ryan

    2017-07-01

    We report the first detection of a substantial brightening event in an isotopologue of a key molecular ion, HCO+, within a protoplanetary disk of a T Tauri star. The H13CO+ J=3-2 rotational transition was observed three times toward IM Lup between 2014 July and 2015 May with the Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array. The first two observations show similar spectrally integrated line and continuum fluxes, while the third observation shows a doubling in the disk-integrated J=3-2 line flux compared to the continuum, which does not change between the three epochs. We explore models of an X-ray active star irradiating the disk via stellar flares, and find that the optically thin H13CO+ emission variation can potentially be explained via X-ray-driven chemistry temporarily enhancing the HCO+ abundance in the upper layers of the disk atmosphere during large or prolonged flaring events. If the HCO+ enhancement is indeed caused by an X-ray flare, future observations should be able to spatially resolve these events and potentially enable us to watch the chemical aftermath of the high-energy stellar radiation propagating across the face of protoplanetary disks, providing a new pathway to explore ionization physics and chemistry, including electron density, in disks.

  11. Climatic changes: what if the global increase of CO2 emissions cannot be kept under control?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.A. Barreto de Castro

    Full Text Available Climatic changes threaten the planet. Most articles related to the subject present estimates of the disasters expected to occur, but few have proposed ways to deal with the impending menaces. One such threat is the global warming caused by the continuous increase in CO2 emissions leading to rising ocean levels due to the increasing temperatures of the polar regions. This threat is assumed to eventually cause the death of hundreds of millions of people. We propose to desalinize ocean water as a means to reduce the rise of ocean levels and to use this water for populations that need good quality potable water, precisely in the poorest regions of the planet. Technology is available in many countries to provide desalinated water at a justifiable cost considering the lives threatened both in coastal and desertified areas.

  12. Contribution of anaerobic digesters to emissions mitigation and electricity generation under U.S. climate policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zaks, David P M; Winchester, Niven; Kucharik, Christopher J; Barford, Carol C; Paltsev, Sergey; Reilly, John M

    2011-08-15

    Livestock husbandry in the U.S. significantly contributes to many environmental problems, including the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas (GHG). Anaerobic digesters (ADs) break down organic wastes using bacteria that produce methane, which can be collected and combusted to generate electricity. ADs also reduce odors and pathogens that are common with manure storage and the digested manure can be used as a fertilizer. There are relatively few ADs in the U.S., mainly due to their high capital costs. We use the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to test the effects of a representative U.S. climate stabilization policy on the adoption of ADs which sell electricity and generate methane mitigation credits. Under such policy, ADs become competitive at producing electricity in 2025, when they receive methane reduction credits and electricity from fossil fuels becomes more expensive. We find that ADs have the potential to generate 5.5% of U.S. electricity.

  13. Joint implementation: a pioneer mechanism within the limits of emissions - Climate study nr 33

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shishlov, Igor; Bellassen, Valentin; Leguet, Benoit

    2012-02-01

    The authors first notice that much has been written about the Clean Development mechanism defined in the Kyoto protocol, but also that the Joint Implementation mechanism has an always increasing importance. Provided that always more countries would adopt greenhouse gas emissions thresholds and the Joint Implementation after the Durban conference, they analyse the Joint Implementation mechanism operation in comparison with the Clean Development mechanism. They address the economic and environmental background of the Joint Implementation. Then, they analyse quantitative aspects of this mechanism, develop a model for the assessment of the potential offer in carbon credits. They discuss the qualitative aspects of the Joint Implementation mechanism: environmental integrity, double accounting, perceived concurrence of national climate policies. Case studies are presented (Russia, Ukraine, France, EU, etc.)

  14. Evaluating adaptation options for urban flooding based on new high-end emission scenario regional climate model simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Leonardsen, L.; Madsen, Henrik

    2015-01-01

    Climate change adaptation studies on urban flooding are often based on a model chain approach from climate forcing scenarios to analysis of adaptation measures. Previous analyses of climate change impacts in Copenhagen, Denmark, were supplemented by 2 high-end scenario simulations. These include...... a regional climate model projection forced to a global temperature increase of 6 degrees C in 2100 as well as a projection based on a high radiative forcing scenario (RCP8.5). With these scenarios, projected impacts of extreme precipitation increase significantly. For extreme sea surges, the impacts do...... by almost 4 and 8 times the current EAD for the RCP8.5 and 6 degrees C scenario, respectively. For both hazards, business-as-usual is not a possible scenario, since even in the absence of policy-driven changes, significant autonomous adaptation is likely to occur. Copenhagen has developed an adaptation plan...

  15. Background Ozone in Southern China During 1994-2015: Role of Anthropogenic Emission and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, T.; Zhang, L.; Poon, S.

    2016-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone plays important roles in atmospheric chemistry, air quality, and climate. Changes in background ozone concentrations and underlying causes are therefore of great interest to the scientific community and governments. Compared with North America and Europe, long-term measurements of background ozone in China are scarce. This study reports the longest continuous ozone record in southern China measured at a background site (Hok Tsui) in Hong Kong during 1994-2015. The analysis of the 22-year record shows that the surface ozone in the background atmosphere of southern China has been increasing, with an overall Theil-Sen estimated rate of 0.43 ppbv/yr. Compared with our previous results during 1994-2007 (Wang et al., 2009), the average rate of increase has slowed down over during 2008-2015 (0.32 vs. 0.58 ppbv/yr), possibly due to smaller increase or even decrease in ozone precursors emission in mainland China in recent years. The average rates of change show significant seasonal differences with the largest rate occurring in summer (0.32, 0.55, 0.52, and 0.36 ppbv/yr in spring, summer, autumn, and winter, respectively). Monthly mean ozone concentrations at Hok Tsui are compared against an East Asian Monsoon index. It is found that only the summer-time ozone over period 2008-2015 has a strong positive correlation with the index, suggesting that climate might have played an important role in driving the ozone increase observed in summer since 2008. The ozone trend in Hong Kong will be compared to those from other regions in East Asia, and the role of emission changes in Asia will be discussed.

  16. Predicting Monsoonal-Driven Stream Discharge and Sediment Yield in Himalaya Mountain Basins with Changing Climate and Deforestation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neupane, R. P.; White, J. D.

    2014-12-01

    Short and long term effects of site water availability impacts the spectrum of management outcomes including landslide risk, hydropower generation, and sustainable agriculture in mountain systems heavily influenced by climate and land use changes. Climate change and land use may predominantly affect the hydrologic cycle of mountain basins as soil precipitation interception is affected by land cover. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, we estimated stream discharge and sediment yield associated with climate and land use changes for two Himalaya basins located at eastern and western margins of Nepal that included drainages of the Tamor and Seti Rivers. Future climate change was modeled using average output of temperature and precipitation changes derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (B1, A1B & A2) of 16 global circulation models for 2080 as meteorological inputs into SWAT. Land use change was modeled spatially and included 1) deforestation, 2) expansion of agricultural land, and 3) increased human settlement that were produced by considering current land use with projected changes associated with viability of elevation and slope characteristics of the basins capable of supporting different land use types. We found higher annual stream discharge in all GCM-derived scenarios compared to the baseline with maximum increases of 13 and 8% in SRES-A2 and SRES-A1B for the Tamor and Seti basins, respectively. With 7% of original forest land removed, sediment yield for Tamor basin was estimated to be 65% higher, but increased to 124% for the SRES-B1 scenario. For the Seti basin, 4% deforestation yielded 33% more sediment for the SRES-A1B scenario. Our results indicated that combined effects of future, intensified monsoon rainfall with deforestation lead to dramatic potential for increased stream discharge and sediment yield as rainfall on steep slopes with thin exposed soils increases surface runoff and soil erosion in the Himalayas. This effect appears to

  17. The impacts of climate change and carbon emissions reductions on energy security

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahinpey, N.; Asghari, K.; Wilson, M.

    2007-01-01

    The changes occurring in the energy sector were discussed with particular reference to the potential impacts of climate change and responses to climate change on an electrical system in Saskatchewan, a northern sub-humid to semi-arid environment in a continental interior. Grid electricity is supplied primarily by fossil fuels and is made up of a mix of coal, natural gas, water and imports, with some minor wind power and diesel delivery. Most of this power is coal generated along the southern border with the United States. The public utility SaskPower generates, transmits and delivers the electricity. Although electrical supply in the province is not deregulated, the utility is influenced by the changes that are occurring in other jurisdictions. The effects on power generation resulting from climate change will include water quality and availability as well as changing the time of peak electrical loads on the system. From the perspective of hydroelectricity, the utility will be required to rely more on water from the spring snow melt in the mountains to the west. This is an unreliable source of water in that quantities could vary greatly from year to year. This paper also discussed the constraints faced by SaskPower in maintaining competitive energy prices and a reliable system without significantly increasing energy imports. These constraints include dealing with the impacts of climate change on the system; facing the threat of carbon constraints in a Kyoto or post-Kyoto world; assessing the risk of reduced surplus capacity beyond provincial boundaries; and, dealing with fuel supply issues. It was determined that the combination of a changing electricity market in North America along with the physical impacts of climate change on electrical generation and regulations that impose a reduction in the level of greenhouse gas emissions from utilities will result in significant issues for security of supply. It was suggested that the utility will need to evaluate supply

  18. Impact of climate change on renewable groundwater resources: assessing the benefits of avoided greenhouse gas emissions using selected CMIP5 climate projections

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Portmann, Felix T; Döll, Petra; Eisner, Stephanie; Flörke, Martina

    2013-01-01

    Reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to minimize climate change requires very significant societal effort. To motivate this effort, it is important to clarify the benefits of avoided emissions. To this end, we analysed the impact of four emissions scenarios on future renewable groundwater resources, which range from 1600 GtCO 2 during the 21st century (RCP2.6) to 7300 GtCO 2 (RCP8.5). Climate modelling uncertainty was taken into account by applying the bias-corrected output of a small ensemble of five CMIP5 global climate models (GCM) as provided by the ISI-MIP effort to the global hydrological model WaterGAP. Despite significant climate model uncertainty, the benefits of avoided emissions with respect to renewable groundwater resources (i.e. groundwater recharge (GWR)) are obvious. The percentage of projected global population (SSP2 population scenario) suffering from a significant decrease of GWR of more than 10% by the 2080s as compared to 1971–2000 decreases from 38% (GCM range 27–50%) for RCP8.5 to 24% (11–39%) for RCP2.6. The population fraction that is spared from any significant GWR change would increase from 29% to 47% if emissions were restricted to RCP2.6. Increases of GWR are more likely to occur in areas with below average population density, while GWR decreases of more than 30% affect especially (semi)arid regions, across all GCMs. Considering change of renewable groundwater resources as a function of mean global temperature (GMT) rise, the land area that is affected by GWR decreases of more than 30% and 70% increases linearly with global warming from 0 to 3 ° C. For each degree of GMT rise, an additional 4% of the global land area (except Greenland and Antarctica) is affected by a GWR decrease of more than 30%, and an additional 1% is affected by a decrease of more than 70%. (letter)

  19. Climate Change and Agriculture: Can market governance mechanisms reduce emissions from the food system fairly and effectively?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garnett, Tara

    2012-05-15

    Climate and agriculture are inextricably linked: the climate affects agricultural production and is itself affected by agricultural emissions. Agriculture is responsible for 30 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. How agriculture is practised therefore has significant potential for mitigating climate change, for providing food security and for improving the livelihoods of millions of food producers worldwide. There is growing interest in the use of market governance mechanisms for tackling climate change by giving the financial incentives to make the kinds of changes that are required. But how widely are these mechanisms being used in agriculture, and are they effective in reducing emissions? What impact do they have on adaptation and other aspects of sustainable development? Are they able to balance the competing demands of producers and consumers, the environment and food security? The key messages emerging from this study are that economic measures have a vital part to play within this regulatory context, but they need to be designed with care. To be effective, emissions from food production and consumption must be addressed together. If not, emissions reduced in one region will simply be displaced elsewhere. A balance needs to be struck by applying a mix of approaches – regulatory, economic, voluntary, and information: no single measure will be effective in achieving emissions reductions on its own. 'Soft' measures, such as voluntary agreements and information have a part to play in providing an enabling context for action, but they must be backed up by 'harder' regulatory or economic measures. Regulation, in the form of a cap on emissions, is a prerequisite for other market governance measures to function well. To be effective, MGMs need to consider the social, cultural and economic context within which they operate.

  20. The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2018-01-01

    The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or ‘effective’ transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43–2.37°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88–2.60°C/TtC 5–95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. PMID:29610381

  1. The utility of the historical record for assessing the transient climate response to cumulative emissions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Millar, Richard J.; Friedlingstein, Pierre

    2018-05-01

    The historical observational record offers a way to constrain the relationship between cumulative carbon dioxide emissions and global mean warming. We use a standard detection and attribution technique, along with observational uncertainties to estimate the all-forcing or `effective' transient climate response to cumulative emissions (TCRE) from the observational record. Accounting for observational uncertainty and uncertainty in historical non-CO2 radiative forcing gives a best-estimate from the historical record of 1.84°C/TtC (1.43-2.37°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the effective TCRE and 1.31°C/TtC (0.88-2.60°C/TtC 5-95% uncertainty) for the CO2-only TCRE. While the best-estimate TCRE lies in the lower half of the IPCC likely range, the high upper bound is associated with the not-ruled-out possibility of a strongly negative aerosol forcing. Earth System Models have a higher effective TCRE range when compared like-for-like with the observations over the historical period, associated in part with a slight underestimate of diagnosed cumulative emissions relative to the observational best-estimate, a larger ensemble mean-simulated CO2-induced warming, and rapid post-2000 non-CO2 warming in some ensemble members. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

  2. Parameterization of dust emissions in the global atmospheric chemistry-climate model EMAC: impact of nudging and soil properties

    OpenAIRE

    Astitha, M.; Lelieveld, J.; Kader, M. Abdel; Pozzer, A.; de Meij, A.

    2012-01-01

    Airborne desert dust influences radiative transfer, atmospheric chemistry and dynamics, as well as nutrient transport and deposition. It directly and indirectly affects climate on regional and global scales. Two versions of a parameterization scheme to compute desert dust emissions are incorporated into the atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC (ECHAM5/MESSy2.41 Atmospheric Chemistry). One uses a global...

  3. Wetland methane emissions during the Last Glacial Maximum estimated from PMIP2 simulations: climate, vegetation and geographic controls

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weber, S.L.; Drury, A.J.; Toonen, W.H.J.; Weele, M. van

    2010-01-01

    It is an open question to what extent wetlands contributed to the interglacial‐glacial decrease in atmospheric methane concentration. Here we estimate methane emissions from glacial wetlands, using newly available PMIP2 simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate from coupled

  4. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios

  5. Impacts of Future Climate, Emission, and Land Use Changes on Aerosols and Air Quality over the Continental

    Science.gov (United States)

    Changes in climate, emission, and land use in the U.S. over the next century are imminent. The response of geologic, biogenic, and anthropogenic aerosol to interactions between these changes, however, are more uncertain and difficult to quantify. To explore these interactions, ...

  6. What Form of Climate Justice? A Challenge to the Idea of Emissions Rights and Permits

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Piguet, Frederic-Paul

    2015-01-01

    With the next Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP) coming up in Paris in late 2015, it is probably a good time to examine the philosophical foundations underpinning discussions on the -largely economic- mechanisms likely to modify the behaviour of the main greenhouse-gas emitters. That is, at any rate, the aim of this article by Frederic-Paul Piguet on the notion of 'climate justice', which questions the pertinence of emissions rights and permits, and examines how the limits of the biosphere should be respected, on the basis of the principle of not doing harm to others. After reminding us of the principles of distributive justice as this applies in the environmental field, Piguet demonstrates the inability of that theory to confront the biosphere for what it is: namely, the fundamental precondition for humanity's common good, which must be respected in a way that transcends the generations, its equilibrium taking precedence over all other considerations, including the economic. Applying this conception, the limits of the biosphere must not be evaluated in terms of a 'sociologized' judgment, as is the case at the moment, but an 'ecologized' one, 'recognizing the part of the biosphere that isn't available for humanity's use and mustn't be touched.' Hence the impossibility of distributing emissions rights for the levels that infringe on this untouchable part, and the inadequacy of theories of distributive justice in this regard. Stressing the fact that the capacities of the biosphere cannot be treated as extendable 'spoils' to be shared out, he sees the prohibition on doing harm as the principle that can set the biosphere in its rightful place as the fundamental precondition for the common good. Consequently, high levels of emissions can only be granted a 'transitory tolerance' that underscores their lack of legitimacy. (author)

  7. Modelling nitrous oxide emissions from organic and conventional cereal-based cropping systems under different management, soil and climate factors

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Doltra, J; Olesen, Jørgen E; Báez, D

    2015-01-01

    Mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture should be assessed across cropping systems and agroclimatic regions. In this study, we investigate the ability of the FASSET model to analyze differences in the magnitude of N2O emissions due to soil, climate and management factors in cereal...... on the seasonal soil N2O fluxes than the environmental factors. Overall, in its current version FASSET reproduced the effects of the different factors investigated on the cumulative seasonal soil N2O emissions but temporally it overestimated emissions from nitrification and denitrification on particular days when...... soil operations, ploughing or fertilization, took place. The errors associated with simulated daily soil N2O fluxes increased with the magnitude of the emissions. For resolving causes of differences in simulated and measured fluxes more intensive and temporally detailed measurements of N2O fluxes...

  8. Climate change-induced vegetation change as a driver of increased subarctic biogenic volatile organic compound emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valolahti, Hanna; Kivimäenpää, Minna; Faubert, Patrick; Michelsen, Anders; Rinnan, Riikka

    2015-09-01

    Emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) have been earlier shown to be highly temperature sensitive in subarctic ecosystems. As these ecosystems experience rapidly advancing pronounced climate warming, we aimed to investigate how warming affects the BVOC emissions in the long term (up to 13 treatment years). We also aimed to assess whether the increased litterfall resulting from the vegetation changes in the warming subarctic would affect the emissions. The study was conducted in a field experiment with factorial open-top chamber warming and annual litter addition treatments on subarctic heath in Abisko, northern Sweden. After 11 and 13 treatment years, BVOCs were sampled from plant communities in the experimental plots using a push-pull enclosure technique and collection into adsorbent cartridges during the growing season and analyzed with gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Plant species coverage in the plots was analyzed by the point intercept method. Warming by 2 °C caused a 2-fold increase in monoterpene and 5-fold increase in sesquiterpene emissions, averaged over all measurements. When the momentary effect of temperature was diminished by standardization of emissions to a fixed temperature, warming still had a significant effect suggesting that emissions were also indirectly increased. This indirect increase appeared to result from increased plant coverage and changes in vegetation composition. The litter addition treatment also caused significant increases in the emission rates of some BVOC groups, especially when combined with warming. The combined treatment had both the largest vegetation changes and the highest BVOC emissions. The increased emissions under litter addition were probably a result of a changed vegetation composition due to alleviated nutrient limitation and stimulated microbial production of BVOCs. We suggest that the changes in the subarctic vegetation composition induced by climate warming will be the major factor

  9. Assessing climate change impacts, benefits of mitigation, and uncertainties on major global forest regions under multiple socioeconomic and emissions scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, John B.; Monier, Erwan; Sohngen, Brent; Pitts, G. Stephen; Drapek, Ray; McFarland, James; Ohrel, Sara; Cole, Jefferson

    2017-04-01

    We analyze a set of simulations to assess the impact of climate change on global forests where MC2 dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) was run with climate simulations from the MIT Integrated Global System Model-Community Atmosphere Model (IGSM-CAM) modeling framework. The core study relies on an ensemble of climate simulations under two emissions scenarios: a business-as-usual reference scenario (REF) analogous to the IPCC RCP8.5 scenario, and a greenhouse gas mitigation scenario, called POL3.7, which is in between the IPCC RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, and is consistent with a 2 °C global mean warming from pre-industrial by 2100. Evaluating the outcomes of both climate change scenarios in the MC2 model shows that the carbon stocks of most forests around the world increased, with the greatest gains in tropical forest regions. Temperate forest regions are projected to see strong increases in productivity offset by carbon loss to fire. The greatest cost of mitigation in terms of effects on forest carbon stocks are projected to be borne by regions in the southern hemisphere. We compare three sources of uncertainty in climate change impacts on the world’s forests: emissions scenarios, the global system climate response (i.e. climate sensitivity), and natural variability. The role of natural variability on changes in forest carbon and net primary productivity (NPP) is small, but it is substantial for impacts of wildfire. Forest productivity under the REF scenario benefits substantially from the CO2 fertilization effect and that higher warming alone does not necessarily increase global forest carbon levels. Our analysis underlines why using an ensemble of climate simulations is necessary to derive robust estimates of the benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation. It also demonstrates that constraining estimates of climate sensitivity and advancing our understanding of CO2 fertilization effects may considerably reduce the range of projections.

  10. Sap-feeding insects on forest trees along latitudinal gradients in northern Europe: a climate-driven patterns.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozlov, Mikhail V; Stekolshchikov, Andrey V; Söderman, Guy; Labina, Eugenia S; Zverev, Vitali; Zvereva, Elena L

    2015-01-01

    Knowledge of the latitudinal patterns in biotic interactions, and especially in herbivory, is crucial for understanding the mechanisms that govern ecosystem functioning and for predicting their responses to climate change. We used sap-feeding insects as a model group to test the hypotheses that the strength of plant-herbivore interactions in boreal forests decreases with latitude and that this latitudinal pattern is driven primarily by midsummer temperatures. We used a replicated sampling design and quantitatively collected and identified all sap-feeding insects from four species of forest trees along five latitudinal gradients (750-1300 km in length, ten sites in each gradient) in northern Europe (59 to 70°N and 10 to 60°E) during 2008-2011. Similar decreases in diversity of sap-feeding insects with latitude were observed in all gradients during all study years. The sap-feeder load (i.e. insect biomass per unit of foliar biomass) decreased with latitude in typical summers, but increased in an exceptionally hot summer and was independent of latitude during a warm summer. Analysis of combined data from all sites and years revealed dome-shaped relationships between the loads of sap-feeders and midsummer temperatures, peaking at 17 °C in Picea abies, at 19.5 °C in Pinus sylvestris and Betula pubescens and at 22 °C in B. pendula. From these relationships, we predict that the losses of forest trees to sap-feeders will increase by 0-45% of the current level in southern boreal forests and by 65-210% in subarctic forests with a 1 °C increase in summer temperatures. The observed relationships between temperatures and the loads of sap-feeders differ between the coniferous and deciduous tree species. We conclude that climate warming will not only increase plant losses to sap-feeding insects, especially in subarctic forests, but can also alter plant-plant interactions, thereby affecting both the productivity and the structure of future forest ecosystems. © 2014

  11. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  12. Influence of methane emissions and vehicle efficiency on the climate implications of heavy-duty natural gas trucks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camuzeaux, Jonathan R; Alvarez, Ramón A; Brooks, Susanne A; Browne, Joshua B; Sterner, Thomas

    2015-06-02

    While natural gas produces lower carbon dioxide emissions than diesel during combustion, if enough methane is emitted across the fuel cycle, then switching a heavy-duty truck fleet from diesel to natural gas can produce net climate damages (more radiative forcing) for decades. Using the Technology Warming Potential methodology, we assess the climate implications of a diesel to natural gas switch in heavy-duty trucks. We consider spark ignition (SI) and high-pressure direct injection (HPDI) natural gas engines and compressed and liquefied natural gas. Given uncertainty surrounding several key assumptions and the potential for technology to evolve, results are evaluated for a range of inputs for well-to-pump natural gas loss rates, vehicle efficiency, and pump-to-wheels (in-use) methane emissions. Using reference case assumptions reflecting currently available data, we find that converting heavy-duty truck fleets leads to damages to the climate for several decades: around 70-90 years for the SI cases, and 50 years for the more efficient HPDI. Our range of results indicates that these fuel switches have the potential to produce climate benefits on all time frames, but combinations of significant well-to-wheels methane emissions reductions and natural gas vehicle efficiency improvements would be required.

  13. Photosynthesis-dependent Isoprene Emission from Leaf to Planet in a Global Carbon-chemistry-climate Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Unger, N.; Harper, K.; Zeng, Y.; Kiang, N. Y.; Alienov, I.; Arneth, A.; Schurgers, G.; Amelynck, C.; Goldstein, A.; Guenther, A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We describe the implementation of a biochemical model of isoprene emission that depends on the electron requirement for isoprene synthesis into the FarquharBallBerry leaf model of photosynthesis and stomatal conductance that is embedded within a global chemistry-climate simulation framework. The isoprene production is calculated as a function of electron transport-limited photosynthesis, intercellular and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, and canopy temperature. The vegetation biophysics module computes the photosynthetic uptake of carbon dioxide coupled with the transpiration of water vapor and the isoprene emission rate at the 30 min physical integration time step of the global chemistry-climate model. In the model, the rate of carbon assimilation provides the dominant control on isoprene emission variability over canopy temperature. A control simulation representative of the present-day climatic state that uses 8 plant functional types (PFTs), prescribed phenology and generic PFT-specific isoprene emission potentials (fraction of electrons available for isoprene synthesis) reproduces 50 of the variability across different ecosystems and seasons in a global database of 28 measured campaign-average fluxes. Compared to time-varying isoprene flux measurements at 9 select sites, the model authentically captures the observed variability in the 30 min average diurnal cycle (R2 6496) and simulates the flux magnitude to within a factor of 2. The control run yields a global isoprene source strength of 451 TgC yr1 that increases by 30 in the artificial absence of plant water stress and by 55 for potential natural vegetation.

  14. Projecting U.S. climate forcing and criteria pollutant emissions through 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Presentation highlighting a method for translating emission scenarios to model-ready emission inventories. The presentation highlights new features for spatially allocating emissions to counties and grid cells and identifies areas of potential improvement, such as updating tempor...

  15. The increase in the perception of the climatic change and the energy systems without emissions of coal

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mulas, P.

    2009-01-01

    In the last 20 years, the phenomenon of the climatic change due to the gases emission of greenhouse effect has become from a topic of scientific study to discussion problem in the political spheres of most high level to world scale. In summary, at the present time it has a generalized public perception that the gas emissions of greenhouse effect generated by anthropogenic activities, they have been increased to such size that they are causing a greenhouse effect in the terrestrial atmosphere with their consequent impact of global heating. In this work a description of the science behind the phenomenon is presented, of the evidences that the believers show, the arguments that present the sceptic persons and the actions to reduce those emissions that have proposed the pragmatic people. A brief summary of the main technologies considered for the energy sector of X XI century so that they reduce those emissions is also presented. (Author)

  16. Energy climate study. Energy assessment, Greenhouse gas emission assessment, Analysis of vulnerability to climate change, Courses of mitigation and adaptation actions. Full report + Appendices + Restitution of the Energy-Climate Study, September 17, 2012

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2012-01-01

    After a brief presentation of Le Mans region, a presentation of the study (context, scope, methodology), and a recall of challenges related to energy and to climate, this study reports a situational analysis and a discussion of development perspectives for energy production on the concerned territory, an assessment of energy consumptions and of greenhouse gas emissions by the different sectors, and a study of territory vulnerability to climate change (methodology, territory characteristics, climate scenarios, vulnerability assessment). It discusses lessons learned from energy and greenhouse gas emission assessments (social-economic stakes, territory strengths and weaknesses, perspectives for action). It discusses the implementation of these issues within a territorial planning document, and the perspective of elaboration of a territorial climate energy plan. An appendix reports an assessment of the potential of development of the different renewable energies (hydroelectric, solar photovoltaic and thermal, wind, wood, methanization, and other processes like waste valorisation, geothermal, and heat networks). Another appendix reports the precise assessment of greenhouse gas emissions on the territory. The next appendix proposes detailed descriptions of scenarios for the implementation of the issue of greenhouse gas emissions within the territorial planning document. The last appendix contains Power Point presentations of the study

  17. Extent and agenda of emission reduction policies in front of climate risks: lessons learned from integrated models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ambrosi, Ph.

    2004-05-01

    After having highlighted the main difficulties met when trying to take decisions on emission reductions (i.e. disequilibrium between short term action and long term dynamics, series of uncertainties, lack of a clear information on threats), this research aims at studying the extent and the agenda of CO 2 emission reduction efforts at a global scale. First, the author explores under various perspectives the relationship between the extent of climate change and the extent of its impacts and modes of analysis of climate policies. Then, he examines how different attitudes towards the climate risk are translated into recommendations for action which are obtained by always more complex models. In order to compare results, simulations are performed, based on optimal control models belonging to the RESPONSE family. Three different options or attitudes are then studied and assessed with RESPONSE: firstly, the uncertainty on impact and damage assessment is still too important to have confidence in present assessments; secondly, while being sceptical on damage assessment, more confidence is given to climate model results, and thirdly, an explicit representation of climate damages is used to introduce rationality issues in the debate on risks

  18. Analysing the emission gap between pledged emission reductions under the Cancun Agreements and the 2C climate target

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Den Elzen, M.G.J.; Roelfsema, M.; Hof, A.F. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boettcher, H. [Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria); Grassi, G. [Joint Research Centre JRC, European Commission, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-04-15

    In the Cancun Agreements, Annex I Parties (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I Parties (developing countries) made voluntary pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The Cancun Agreements also state a long-term target of limiting temperature increase to a maximum of 2C above pre-industrial levels. This report is an update of the PBL report 'Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord', which similar to earlier studies showed that there is a possible gap in emissions between the emission level resulting from the pledges and the level necessary to achieve the 2C target. The updates involve new information on many topics that have become available over the last two years, including updated national business-as-usual emission projections as provided by the countries themselves, and more information on uncertainties and on factors influencing the size of the emission gap. In this context, the main objective of this report can be formulated as follows: This report analyses the effect of the pledges put forward by the Parties in the Cancun Agreements on the emission gap, taking into account all the new information available. It pays specific attention to uncertainties and risks and describes in more detail the emission implications of the pledges and actions of the 12 largest emitting countries or regions.

  19. Analysing the emission gap between pledged emission reductions under the Cancun Agreements and the 2C climate target

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Den Elzen, M. G.J.; Roelfsema, M.; Hof, A. F. [Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency PBL, Den Haag (Netherlands); Boettcher, H. [Institute for Applied Systems Analysis IIASA, Laxenburg (Austria); Grassi, G. [Joint Research Centre JRC, European Commission, Ispra (Italy)

    2012-04-15

    In the Cancun Agreements, Annex I Parties (industrialised countries) and non-Annex I Parties (developing countries) made voluntary pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2020. The Cancun Agreements also state a long-term target of limiting temperature increase to a maximum of 2C above pre-industrial levels. This report is an update of the PBL report 'Evaluation of the Copenhagen Accord', which similar to earlier studies showed that there is a possible gap in emissions between the emission level resulting from the pledges and the level necessary to achieve the 2C target. The updates involve new information on many topics that have become available over the last two years, including updated national business-as-usual emission projections as provided by the countries themselves, and more information on uncertainties and on factors influencing the size of the emission gap. In this context, the main objective of this report can be formulated as follows: This report analyses the effect of the pledges put forward by the Parties in the Cancun Agreements on the emission gap, taking into account all the new information available. It pays specific attention to uncertainties and risks and describes in more detail the emission implications of the pledges and actions of the 12 largest emitting countries or regions.

  20. What's so local about global climate change? Testing social theories of environmental degradation to quantify the demographic, economic, and governmental factors associated with energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions in U.S. metropolitan areas and counties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tribbia, John Luke

    . The STIRPAT method is used to test four social theories of environmental degradation -- the treadmill of production, ecological modernization, urban ecological transitions, and human ecology theories -- by quantifying variables associated with energy use and CO2 emissions drawn from each theory. The specific findings demonstrate that various demographic, economic, and governmental factors are related strongly to metropolitan area energy consumption and county-level CO2 emissions. The human ecology, treadmill of production, and urban ecological transitions theories are important to explaining how and why climate-related impacts differ for a wide variety of local areas in the United States. Related to human ecology and treadmill of production theory, environmental degradation is highest in metropolitan areas and counties with large populations and large economies that have various mechanisms in place to facilitate economic growth. By contrast, some U.S. counties are beginning to remedy their impact on the environment by applying economic and governmental resources toward the mitigation of CO2 emissions, which provides evidence of support for urban ecological transitions theory. However, because climate change is a complex cross-scale global environmental problem and the results in this dissertation confirm that this problem is locally driven by similar population and economic factors also affecting the climate at larger spatial scales, mitigation efforts to reduce energy use and emissions at the local level will be fruitless without a well-coordinated, cross-scale (local to global) ideological shift that puts less priority on economic goals and more on environmental sustainability. These results, and the methodological and theoretical framework applied in this dissertation, thus provide a useful platform for the successful application of future research that specifically addresses mitigation strategies to reduce local-level environmental impacts. This dissertation