WorldWideScience

Sample records for climatic risks les

  1. Managers facing the climatic risks; Les elus face aux risques climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-07-01

    This colloquium aimed to analyze the relations between the climatic changes and extreme meteorological events and on the associated risks. It provides information and knowledge on the state of the art concerning the today scientific knowledge, the prevention measures and the adaptation facing the risks and the difficult estimation of the climatic damages costs. (A.L.B.)

  2. Climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lamarre, D.; Favier, R.; Bourg, D.; Marchand, J.P.

    2005-04-01

    The climatic risks are analyzed in this book under the cross-vision of specialists of different domains: philosophy, sociology, economic history, law, geography, climatology and hydrology. The prevention of risks and the precautionary principle are presented first. Then, the relations between climatic risk and geography are analyzed using the notion of territoriality. The territory aspect is in the core of the present day debates about the geography of risks, in particular when the links between climate change and public health are considered. Then the main climatic risks are presented. Droughts and floods are the most damaging ones and the difficulties of prevention-indemnification coupling remain important. (J.S.)

  3. ONERC Observatoire National sur les Effets du Rechauffement Climatique (National Observatory of Climate warming effects). Report to the Prime Minister and to Parliament. Climate changes and public health risks in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    After having recalled the climate change context and the activities of the ONERC (the French National Observatory of Climate Warming Effects) since its previous report, this report gathers several contributions by as many scientists. They propose analysis, comments and discussions on various topics: human diseases which might be influenced by climate change in France (heat waves and allergies, emergence of animal and human diseases, potential impacts of climate change on vector-borne diseases, infectious diseases in overseas territories, public health consequences), surveillance and health alert systems (infectious disease national surveillance and monitoring network, emergency response, satellite imagery, public health and risk management, lessons learned from the chikungunya pandemic), public health and risk management (overview of international works on the relationship between climate change and public health, public health consequences of climate change)

  4. Managing Climate Change Risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jones, R. [CSIRO Atmospheric Research, PMB1 Aspendale, Victoria 3195 (Australia)

    2003-07-01

    Issues of uncertainty, scale and delay between action and response mean that 'dangerous' climate change is best managed within a risk assessment framework that evolves as new information is gathered. Risk can be broadly defined as the combination of likelihood and consequence; the latter measured as vulnerability to greenhouse-induced climate change. The most robust way to assess climate change damages in a probabilistic framework is as the likelihood of critical threshold exceedance. Because vulnerability is dominated by local factors, global vulnerability is the aggregation of many local impacts being forced beyond their coping ranges. Several case studies, generic sea level rise and temperature, coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef and water supply in an Australian catchment, are used to show how local risk assessments can be assessed then expressed as a function of global warming. Impacts treated thus can be aggregated to assess global risks consistent with Article 2 of the UNFCCC. A 'proof of concept' example is then used to show how the stabilisation of greenhouse gases can constrain the likelihood of exceeding critical thresholds at both the both local and global scale. This analysis suggests that even if the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages can be estimated, the likelihood of being able to meet a cost-benefit target is limited by both physical and socio-economic uncertainties. In terms of managing climate change risks, adaptation will be most effective at reducing vulnerability likely to occur at low levels of warming. Successive efforts to mitigate greenhouse gases will reduce the likelihood of reaching levels of global warming from the top down, with the highest potential temperatures being avoided first, irrespective of contributing scientific uncertainties. This implies that the first cuts in emissions will always produce the largest economic benefits in terms of avoided

  5. Urban Climate Risk Communities

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2016-01-01

    of Beck’s forward-looking agenda for a post-Euro-centric social science, outlines the contours of such an urban-cosmopolitan ‘realpolitik’ of climate risks, as this is presently unfolding across East Asian world cities. Much more than a theory-building endeavour, the essay suggests, Beck’s sociology......Ulrich Beck’s cosmopolitan sociology affords a much-needed rethinking of the transnational politics of climate change, not least in pointing to an emerging inter-urban geography of world cities as a potential new source of community, change and solidarity. This short essay, written in honour...... provides a standing invitation for further transnational dialogue and collaborative empirical work, in East Asia and beyond, on what are, arguably, the defining challenges for the 21st century world of global risks....

  6. Managers facing the climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2003-01-01

    This colloquium aimed to analyze the relations between the climatic changes and extreme meteorological events and on the associated risks. It provides information and knowledge on the state of the art concerning the today scientific knowledge, the prevention measures and the adaptation facing the risks and the difficult estimation of the climatic damages costs. (A.L.B.)

  7. Visualizing interconnections among climate risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, K.; Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Emori, S.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Honda, Y.; Okada, M.; Masaki, Y.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Yoshimori, M.; Sueyoshi, T.; Hanasaki, N.; Ito, A.; Sakurai, G.; Iizumi, T.; Nishimori, M.; Lim, W. H.; Miyazaki, C.; Kanae, S.; Oki, T.

    2015-12-01

    It is now widely recognized that climate change is affecting various sectors of the world. Climate change impact on one sector may spread out to other sectors including those seemingly remote, which we call "interconnections of climate risks". While a number of climate risks have been identified in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), there has been no attempt to explore their interconnections comprehensively. Here we present a first and most exhaustive visualization of climate risks drawn based on a systematic literature survey. Our risk network diagrams depict that changes in the climate system impact natural capitals (terrestrial water, crop, and agricultural land) as well as social infrastructures, influencing the socio-economic system and ultimately our access to food, water, and energy. Our findings suggest the importance of incorporating climate risk interconnections into impact and vulnerability assessments and call into question the widely used damage function approaches, which address a limited number of climate change impacts in isolation. Furthermore, the diagram is useful to educate decision makers, stakeholders, and general public about cascading risks that can be triggered by the climate change. Socio-economic activities today are becoming increasingly more inter-dependent because of the rapid technological progress, urbanization, and the globalization among others. Equally complex is the ecosystem that is susceptible to climate change, which comprises interwoven processes affecting one another. In the context of climate change, a number of climate risks have been identified and classified according to regions and sectors. These reports, however, did not fully address the inter-relations among risks because of the complexity inherent in this issue. Climate risks may ripple through sectors in the present inter-dependent world, posing a challenge ahead of us to maintain the resilience of the system. It is

  8. Climate risk index for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Torresan, Silvia; Bosello, Francesco; Mistry, Malcolm; Amadio, Mattia; Marzi, Sepehr; Furlan, Elisa; Sperotto, Anna

    2018-06-01

    We describe a climate risk index that has been developed to inform national climate adaptation planning in Italy and that is further elaborated in this paper. The index supports national authorities in designing adaptation policies and plans, guides the initial problem formulation phase, and identifies administrative areas with higher propensity to being adversely affected by climate change. The index combines (i) climate change-amplified hazards; (ii) high-resolution indicators of exposure of chosen economic, social, natural and built- or manufactured capital (MC) assets and (iii) vulnerability, which comprises both present sensitivity to climate-induced hazards and adaptive capacity. We use standardized anomalies of selected extreme climate indices derived from high-resolution regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative as proxies of climate change-altered weather and climate-related hazards. The exposure and sensitivity assessment is based on indicators of manufactured, natural, social and economic capital assets exposed to and adversely affected by climate-related hazards. The MC refers to material goods or fixed assets which support the production process (e.g. industrial machines and buildings); Natural Capital comprises natural resources and processes (renewable and non-renewable) producing goods and services for well-being; Social Capital (SC) addressed factors at the individual (people's health, knowledge, skills) and collective (institutional) level (e.g. families, communities, organizations and schools); and Economic Capital (EC) includes owned and traded goods and services. The results of the climate risk analysis are used to rank the subnational administrative and statistical units according to the climate risk challenges, and possibly for financial resource allocation for climate adaptation. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  9. Integrated climate change risk assessment:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2017-01-01

    Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

  10. Risk analysis of industrial plants operation; Integration des evenements accidentels dans les bilans sur les nuisances industrielles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubert, Philippe

    1989-12-01

    This study examines the possibilities of systematic technology risk analysis in view of territorial management (city, urban community, region), including chronic and accidental risks. The objective was to relate this evaluation with those done for permanent water and air pollution. Risk management for pollution are done for a long time. A number of studies were done in urban communities and regions both for air and water pollution. The second objective is related to management of industrial risks: nuclear, petrochemical, transport of hazardous material, pipelines, etc. At the beginning, three possibilities of effects are taken into account: human health, economic aspect and water, and possibilities of evaluation are identified. Elements of risk identification are presented for quantification of results. [French] Cette etude examine les possibilites d'une analyse systematique du risque accidentel technologique dans une optique d'evaluation et de gestion territoriale (ville, communaute urbaine, region), qui integre: tous les types de risque chroniques et accidentels. Un des objectifs est donc d'articuler de telles evaluations avec celles qui sont faites pour les pollutions chroniques de l'eau et de l'air. La gestion du risque dans ces domaines se fait en effet selon une approche spatiale depuis longtemps: les deux exemples les plus nets sont les agences de bassin et les reseaux de surveillance et d'alerte pour la pollution de l'air. Parallelement a ces systemes de gestion, et souvent pour les besoins de leur fonctionnement, de nombreuses etudes ont ete effectuees sur des communautes urbaines et des regions, tant pour l'air que pour l'eau. L'autre objectif est de tirer parti des analyses faites sur les objets industriels, qui sont, a l'image de la gestion de leurs risques, sectorielles: industrie nucleaire, industrie petrochimique, transport de matieres dangereuses, pipeline etc.. Dans un premier temps, les trois angles d'attaque possibles du risque accidentel sont

  11. Marine low cloud sensitivity to an idealized climate change : The CGILS LES intercomparison

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Blossey, P.N.; Bretherton, C.S.; Zhang, M.; Cheng, A.; Endo, S.; Heus, T.; Liu, Y.; Lock, A.P.; De Roode, S.R.; Xu, K.M.

    2013-01-01

    Subtropical marine low cloud sensitivity to an idealized climate change is compared in six large-eddy simulation (LES) models as part of CGILS. July cloud cover is simulated at three locations over the subtropical northeast Pacific Ocean, which are typified by cold sea surface temperatures (SSTs)

  12. The insurance of climatic risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pauthier, Alice

    2015-06-01

    The United Nations Environment Programme assesses that the cost of adaptation to climate change could reach 150 billions dollars per year by 2025-2030 and 500 billions dollars by 2050. This raises the issues of financing of adaptation measures, and of compensations in case of natural disaster, and insurance companies here seem to have a major role to play. However, the modification of the climatic risk puts the viability of conventional insurance mechanisms into question again. While discussing these issues, the author outlines that a sustainable insurance against these evolving risks may threaten insurance companies to go to bankrupt, but also all their policyholders who are, for most of them, unable to cope by themselves with the consequences of an extreme climatic event. The author also discusses related aspects such as risk modelling, risk mutualization, a securing of insurance companies based on the financial market, the implementation of public-private partnership, and ways to insure climate anomalies. She also comments the commitment of the insurance sector in adaptation and mitigation policies

  13. Sound transit climate risk reduction project.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    The Climate Risk Reduction Project assessed how climate change may affect Sound Transit commuter rail, light rail, and express bus : services. The project identified potential climate change impacts on agency operations, assets, and long-term plannin...

  14. Communicating climate risks to Vietnam's vulnerable coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-05-04

    May 4, 2015 ... A key aspect of this research involves communicating climate change ... to more effectively communicate climate change risk and uncertainty to ... youth groups and women's unions, to share climate expertise and improve ...

  15. Climate change. Managing the risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swart, R.J.

    1994-01-01

    In order to address the key question if a targeted approach to climate change response is feasible, different aspects of this question are analyzed. First, the scientific and political aspects of different options to determine specific long-term objectives for climate change are evaluated on the basis of the current scientific insights and the experiences over the last 5 years to develop climate objectives. Preliminary directions for such objectives are given. Next, important analytical tools are discussed that can be applied to analyze the different options and their implications in detail. In order to evaluate the implications of mitigation options, strategies that are consistent with the preliminary climate goals are analyzed in the third part. In chapter 2, the concept of long-term environmental goals, derived from critical levels of climate change, is discussed. Also a historical perspective is provided. A new, systematic regionalized and risk-based approach to elaborate the ultimate objective of the Framework Convention on Climate Change is proposed. In chapter 3 scenarios and integrated models are discussed. Central is the description of scenarios that were developed with RlVM's Integrated Model to Assess the Greenhouse Effect (IMAGE) and the US-EPA's Atmospheric Stabilization Framework (ASF). In chapter 4 potential long-term international emissions control strategies for the different sources and sinks of the most important greenhouse gases are analyzed. Carbon dioxide from energy, carbon dioxide from deforestation, and non-CO 2 greenhouse gases are dealt with subsequently. The dissertation ends with general conclusions and recommendations for the further design of a targeted approach to climate change response, the development of analytical tools to support policy development in the area of climate change, and strategies that are consistent with preliminary long-term environmental goals. 66 figs., 8 tabs., 417 refs., 1 appendix

  16. ONERC. Observatoire National sur les Effets du Rechauffement Climatique (National Observatory of Climate warming effects). Report to the Prime Minister and to Parliament. Climate changes and public health risks in France; Changements climatiques et risques sanitaires en France. Rapport au Premier Ministre et au Parlement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2010-07-01

    After having recalled the climate change context and the activities of the ONERC (the French National Observatory of Climate Warming Effects) since its previous report, this report gathers several contributions by as many scientists. They propose analysis, comments and discussions on various topics: human diseases which might be influenced by climate change in France (heat waves and allergies, emergence of animal and human diseases, potential impacts of climate change on vector-borne diseases, infectious diseases in overseas territories, public health consequences), surveillance and health alert systems (infectious disease national surveillance and monitoring network, emergency response, satellite imagery, public health and risk management, lessons learned from the chikungunya pandemic), public health and risk management (overview of international works on the relationship between climate change and public health, public health consequences of climate change)

  17. Climate Leadership webinar on Integrating Energy and Climate Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allergan, a multi-specialty healthcare company and pharmaceutical manufacturer, discusses how it manages climate and energy risks, how these areas are linked, and how energy and climate management strategies pervade critical business decisions.

  18. Climate change: the knowledge and the possible; Changement climatique: les savoirs et les possibles

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Le Treut, H. [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique, 94 - Ivry sur Seine (France); Huet, S. [Journaliste a Liberation, Domaine de l' Information Scientifique, 75 - Paris (France); Chappellaz, J. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement de Grenoble, 38 - Grenoble (France); Godard, O. [Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Dept. Humanites et Sciences Sociales, Ecole Polytechnique, 75 - Paris (France)

    2010-07-01

    Ultimatum, justice, crisis, green development, skepticism, controversy.. climate change is making noise in the beginning of this- 21 century and is going to make much more. In order to act with full knowledge of the facts, it is recommended to get the information from the right source and to make a precise status of the available knowledge. Then, this knowledge must be analyzed to understand how it has been obtained, discussed, validated, spread and sometimes distorted. This is what the authors of this book are applying themselves to do: two climatologists, one economist and one journalist are joining their skills and give us the keys that allow us to decode the paradoxes and challenges of the climate question. They provide us with intellectual arms to fight against the insincere skepticism and to discuss about the rational skepticism. (J.S.)

  19. Climate engineering and the risk of rapid climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ross, Andrew; Damon Matthews, H

    2009-01-01

    Recent research has highlighted risks associated with the use of climate engineering as a method of stabilizing global temperatures, including the possibility of rapid climate warming in the case of abrupt removal of engineered radiative forcing. In this study, we have used a simple climate model to estimate the likely range of temperature changes associated with implementation and removal of climate engineering. In the absence of climate engineering, maximum annual rates of warming ranged from 0.015 to 0.07 deg. C/year, depending on the model's climate sensitivity. Climate engineering resulted in much higher rates of warming, with the temperature change in the year following the removal of climate engineering ranging from 0.13 to 0.76 deg. C. High rates of temperature change were sustained for two decades following the removal of climate engineering; rates of change of 0.5 (0.3,0.1) deg. C/decade were exceeded over a 20 year period with 15% (75%, 100%) likelihood. Many ecosystems could be negatively affected by these rates of temperature change; our results suggest that climate engineering in the absence of deep emissions cuts could arguably constitute increased risk of dangerous anthropogenic interference in the climate system under the criteria laid out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  20. International negotiation methods on climatic risks, the limits of global incentives: Natural gas example. Procedures de negociation internationale sur les risques climatiques, les limites de la globalisation: etude autour d'un cas d'ecole, le gaz naturel

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C.; Journe, V. (Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 75 - Paris (France))

    The discussion on economic instruments for coordinating an international strategy for climatic risks prevention does not take sufficiently into account the importance of the relevant scientific controversies. These ones determine strongly the negotiation process for the settlement of such a system. We illustrate this point with the simple case of the natural gas whose superiority in terms of emission contents compared to the other fossil fuels, could be contested in case of too important CH[sub 4] releases. We show that the negotiation process cannot come to a positive end if the incentive system relies only on the price signal. This process can converge only if one thinks about the combination of various tools, namely technological norms and ad hoc funds for the renewal of transmission and distribution networks combined with tax systems. 17 refs., 6 tabs.

  1. Assessing reservoir operations risk under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brekke, L.D.; Maurer, E.P.; Anderson, J.D.; Dettinger, M.D.; Townsley, E.S.; Harrison, A.; Pruitt, T.

    2009-01-01

    Risk-based planning offers a robust way to identify strategies that permit adaptive water resources management under climate change. This paper presents a flexible methodology for conducting climate change risk assessments involving reservoir operations. Decision makers can apply this methodology to their systems by selecting future periods and risk metrics relevant to their planning questions and by collectively evaluating system impacts relative to an ensemble of climate projection scenarios (weighted or not). This paper shows multiple applications of this methodology in a case study involving California's Central Valley Project and State Water Project systems. Multiple applications were conducted to show how choices made in conducting the risk assessment, choices known as analytical design decisions, can affect assessed risk. Specifically, risk was reanalyzed for every choice combination of two design decisions: (1) whether to assume climate change will influence flood-control constraints on water supply operations (and how), and (2) whether to weight climate change scenarios (and how). Results show that assessed risk would motivate different planning pathways depending on decision-maker attitudes toward risk (e.g., risk neutral versus risk averse). Results also show that assessed risk at a given risk attitude is sensitive to the analytical design choices listed above, with the choice of whether to adjust flood-control rules under climate change having considerably more influence than the choice on whether to weight climate scenarios. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Mapping of interconnection of climate risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokohata, Tokuta; Tanaka, Katsumasa; Nishina, Kazuya; Takanashi, Kiyoshi; Emori, Seita; Kiguchi, Masashi; Iseri, Yoshihiko; Honda, Yasushi; Okada, Masashi; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Yamamoto, Akitomo; Shigemitsu, Masahito; Yoshimori, Masakazu; Sueyoshi, Tetsuo; Iwase, Kenta; Hanasaki, Naota; Ito, Akihiko; Sakurai, Gen; Iizumi, Toshichika; Oki, Taikan

    2015-04-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  3. Integrated risk analysis of global climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shlyakhter, Alexander; Wilson, Richard; Valverde A, L.J. Jr.

    1995-01-01

    This paper discusses several factors that should be considered in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. We begin by describing how the problem of global climate change can be subdivided into largely independent parts that can be linked together in an analytically tractable fashion. Uncertainty plays a central role in integrated risk analyses of global climate change. Accordingly, we consider various aspects of uncertainty as they relate to the climate change problem. We also consider the impacts of these uncertainties on various risk management issues, such as sequential decision strategies, value of information, and problems of interregional and intergenerational equity. (author)

  4. Fat-tailed risk about climate change and climate policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hwang, In Chang; Tol, Richard S.J.; Hofkes, Marjan W.

    2016-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of emissions control in welfare maximization under fat-tailed risk about climate change. We provide a classification of fat tails and discuss the effect of fat-tailed risk on climate policy. One of the main findings is that emissions control may prevent the “strong” tail-effect from arising, at least under some conditions such as bounded temperature increases, low risk aversion, low damage costs, and bounded utility function. More specifically, the fat-tailed risk with respect to a climate parameter does not necessarily lead to an unbounded carbon tax. In this case, the basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. - Highlights: • A fat tail is classified and the tail effect on climate policy is discussed. • The optimal carbon tax is not necessarily unbounded. • The basic principle of cost-benefit analysis maintains its applicability. • This is a numerical confirmation of the recent theoretical research.

  5. The french researches on the climatic change; Les recherches francaises sur le changement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-07-01

    Scientists were the first to prevent decision makers on the risk of the climatic change bond to the greenhouse gases emissions. The results of the third GIEC report confirmed that the main part of the global warming of the last 50 years is due to the human activities. This document presents the major results of the french researches during the last five years: the planet observation, the climate evolution study, the simulation of the future climate, the climatic change in France, the impacts of the climatic change on the marine and earth biosphere, the climatic risks and the public policies, the health impacts, the 2003 heat and the research infrastructures. (A.L.B.)

  6. Scientific uncertainties and climate risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Petit, M.

    2005-01-01

    Human activities have induced a significant change in the Earth's atmospheric composition and, most likely, this trend will increase throughout the coming decades. During the last decades, the mean temperature has actually increased by the expected amount. Moreover, the geographical distribution of the warming, and day-to-night temperature variation have evolved as predicted. The magnitude of those changes is relatively small for the time being, but is expected to increase alarmingly during the coming decades. Greenhouse warming is a representative example of the problems of sustainable development: long-term risks can be estimated on a rational basis from scientific laws alone, but the non-specialist is generally not prepared to understand the steps required. However, even the non-specialist has obviously the right to decide about his way of life and the inheritance that he would like to leave for his children, but it is preferable that he is fully informed before making his decisions. Dialog, mutual understanding and confidence must prevail between Science and Society to avoid irrational actions. Controversy among experts is quite frequent. In the case of greenhouse warming, a commendable collective expertise has drastically reduced possible confusion. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was created jointly by the World Meteorology Organization (WMO) and the UN Program for the Environment (UNEP). Its reports evaluate the state of knowledge on past and future global climate changes, their impact, and the possibility of controlling anthropogenic emissions. The main targeted readers are, nevertheless, non-specialists, who should be made aware of results deduced from approaches that they may not be able to follow step by step. Moreover, these results, in particular, future projections, are, and will remain, subject to some uncertainty, which a fair description of the state of knowledge must include. Many misunderstandings between writers and readers can

  7. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Dawson, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment prioriti...

  8. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Burcharth, Hans F.; Zanuttigh, Barbara; Andersen, Thomas Lykke

    2014-01-01

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...

  9. Risk communication on climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wardekker, J.A.

    2004-10-01

    For the title study use has been made of available scientific literature, results of new surveys and interviews. In the first part of the study attention is paid to the exchange of information between parties involved in climate change and differences in supply and demand of information. In the second part citizens' views on climate change, problems with communication on climate change, and the resulting consequences and options for communication are dealt with. In this second part also barriers to action that are related or influenced by communication are taken into consideration

  10. Climate policy: Risk-averse governments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Paul G.

    2014-04-01

    Relative to the scale of the problem, climate policies worldwide have failed. Now research explains why policy innovations are often inadequate, routinely reflecting the aversion of policymakers to the risk of failure.

  11. Quantifying climate risk - the starting point

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairweather, Helen; Luo, Qunying; Liu, De Li; Wiles, Perry

    2007-01-01

    Full text: All natural systems have evolved to their current state as a result inter alia of the climate in which they developed. Similarly, man-made systems (such as agricultural production) have developed to suit the climate experienced over the last 100 or so years. The capacity of different systems to adapt to changes in climate that are outside those that have been experienced previously is largely unknown. This results in considerable uncertainty when predicting climate change impacts. However, it is possible to quantify the relative probabilities of a range of potential impacts of climate change. Quantifying current climate risks is an effective starting point for analysing the probable impacts of future climate change and guiding the selection of appropriate adaptation strategies. For a farming system to be viable within the current climate, its profitability must be sustained and, therefore, possible adaptation strategies need to be tested for continued viability in a changed climate. The methodology outlined in this paper examines historical patterns of key climate variables (rainfall and temperature) across the season and their influence on the productivity of wheat growing in NSW. This analysis is used to identify the time of year that the system is most vulnerable to climate variation, within the constraints of the current climate. Wheat yield is used as a measure of productivity, which is also assumed to be a surrogate for profitability. A time series of wheat yields is sorted into ascending order and categorised into five percentile groupings (i.e. 20th, 40th, 60th and 80th percentiles) for each shire across NSW (-100 years). Five time series of climate data (which are aggregated daily data from the years in each percentile) are analysed to determine the period that provides the greatest climate risk to the production system. Once this period has been determined, this risk is quantified in terms of the degree of separation of the time series

  12. Impacts, risks, and governance of climate engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Liu

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Climate engineering is a potential alternative method to curb global warming, and this discipline has garnered considerable attention from the international scientific community including the Chinese scientists. This manuscript provides an overview of several aspects of climate engineering, including its definition, its potential impacts and risk, and its governance status. The overall conclusion is that China is not yet ready to implement climate engineering. However, it is important for China to continue conducting research on climate engineering, particularly with respect to its feasible application within China, its potential social, economic, and environmental impacts, and possible international governance structures and governing principles, with regard to both experimentation and implementation.

  13. Handling Interdependencies in Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richard J. Dawson

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Typically, a climate change risk assessment focuses on individual sectors or hazards. However, interdependencies between climate risks manifest themselves via functional, physical, geographical, economic, policy and social mechanisms. These can occur over a range of spatial or temporal scales and with different strengths of coupling. Three case studies are used to demonstrate how interdependencies can significantly alter the nature and magnitude of risk, and, consequently, investment priorities for adaptation. The three examples explore interdependencies that arise from (1 climate loading dependence; (2 mediation of two climate impacts by physical processes operating over large spatial extents; and, (3 multiple risks that are influenced by shared climatic and socio-economic drivers. Drawing upon learning from these case studies, and other work, a framework for the analysis and consideration of interdependencies in climate change risk assessment has been developed. This is an iterative learning loop that involves defining the system, scoping interaction mechanisms, applying appropriate modelling tools, identifying vulnerabilities and opportunities, and assessing the performance of adaptation interventions.

  14. Connecting communities for climate and disaster risk preparedness ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Climate adaptation and disaster risk management and response are ... not only mitigate impact but to improve preparedness, risk management, and climate resilience. ... including heat stress, water management, and climate-related migration.

  15. Climate policy uncertainty and investment risk

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2007-06-21

    Our climate is changing. This is certain. Less certain, however, is the timing and magnitude of climate change, and the cost of transition to a low-carbon world. Therefore, many policies and programmes are still at a formative stage, and policy uncertainty is very high. This book identifies how climate change policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour in the power sector. For power companies, where capital stock is intensive and long-lived, those risks rank among the biggest and can create an incentive to delay investment. Our analysis results show that the risk premiums of climate change uncertainty can add 40% of construction costs of the plant for power investors, and 10% of price surcharges for the electricity end-users. This publication tells what can be done in policy design to reduce these costs. Incorporating the results of quantitative analysis, this publication also shows the sensitivity of different power sector investment decisions to different risks. It compares the effects of climate policy uncertainty with energy market uncertainty, showing the relative importance of these sources of risk for different technologies in different market types. Drawing on extensive consultation with power companies and financial investors, it also assesses the implications for policy makers, allowing the key messages to be transferred into policy designs. This book is a useful tool for governments to improve climate policy mechanisms and create more certainty for power investors.

  16. Coastal Risk Management in a Changing Climate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Existing coastal management and defense approaches are not well suited to meet the challenges of climate change and related uncertanities. Professionals in this field need a more dynamic, systematic and multidisciplinary approach. Written by an international group of experts, "Coastal Risk...... Management in a Changing Climate" provides innovative, multidisciplinary best practices for mitigating the effects of climate change on coastal structures. Based on the Theseus program, the book includes eight study sites across Europe, with specific attention to the most vulnerable coastal environments...... such as deltas, estuaries and wetlands, where many large cities and industrial areas are located. Integrated risk assessment tools for considering the effects of climate change and related uncertainties. Presents latest insights on coastal engineering defenses. Provides integrated guidelines for setting up...

  17. Climate Change and Risks to National Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Titley, D.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change impacts national security in three ways: through changes in the operating environments of the military; by increasing risks to security infrastructure, specifically bases and training ranges; and by exacerbating and accelerating the risks of state collapse and conflict in regions that are already fragile and unstable. Additionally there will be unique security challenges in the Arctic as sea-ice melts out and human activities increase across multiple dimensions. Military forces will also likely see increased demand for Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief resulting from a combination of increased human population, rising sea-level, and potentially stronger and wetter storms. The talk will explore some of the lesser known aspects of these changes, examine selected climate-driven 'wild cards' that have the potential to disrupt regional and global security, and explore how migration in the face of a changing climate may heighten security issues. I will assess the positions U.S. executive and legislative branches with respect to climate & security, and how those positions have evolved since the November 2016 election, sometimes in counter-intuitive ways. The talk will close with some recommended courses of action the security enterprise can take to manage this climate risk.

  18. Focus Climate Talk on Managing Risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lefsrud, Lianne M.; Meyer, Renate

    2013-01-01

    In this opinion piece, the authors begin by asking whether is is possible that modern society's bitter political divisions over belief in human-induced climate change are distracting decision-makers from the far more practical matter of confronting the risk that it presents, directly or indirectly...

  19. Water Security in Periurban South Asia : Adapting to Climate ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Rapports. Fish farming, water and climate in northern Thailand : insurance and water management as potential risk mitigation options ... Les chaînes de valeur comme leviers stratégiques. Les entreprises peuvent comprendre les tendances commerciales et les défis futurs dans la communauté économique de l'ASEAN.

  20. Water Security in Periurban South Asia : Adapting to Climate ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Fish farming, water and climate in northern Thailand : insurance and water management as potential risk mitigation options. Études ... Les chaînes de valeur comme leviers stratégiques. Les entreprises peuvent comprendre les tendances commerciales et les défis futurs dans la communauté économique de l'ASEAN.

  1. Managing Climate Risk to Agriculture and Water Resources in South ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Managing Climate Risk to Agriculture and Water Resources in South Africa ... to better integrate information on climate change and climate variability into water resources policy, planning and management. ... University of the Free State.

  2. CLIMATE AS A RISK FACTOR FOR TOURISM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ÁKOS NÉMETH

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Weather and climate risk factors for tourism are surveyed and illustrated with regard to the expected climate changes in Hungary. These changes are not at all advantageous and which affect the business in question both directly and indirectly. These are the summer resort tourism (characterised by bioclimatic indices. Green tourism is the next one to characterise, including skiing, mountain climbing and eco-tourism, as well. Here both day-to-day weather extremes and long-lasting effects on the biota (e.g. drought, or inundation for plain-area eco-tourism. Last, but not least the urban (cultural- and shopping- tourism is presented, since the large towns exhibit their special climate and different risks. The paper intends to specify these meteorological factors and effects also in terms of the different types of touristic activities. The general statements on the effect of weather and climate on tourism are illustrated by a few individual parameters and also by the so called Physiologically Equivalent Temperature. Annual and diurnal course of this parameter are presented, together with various trends in this variable at different sites and in different (hot and cold extremities of the occurring values. Other examples, helping the tourism industry are presented in various climate conditions of the country. They include high precipitation and high relative humidity information. The paper also lists the possible adaptation measures to extreme events and also their likely changes in time.

  3. Climate change risk perception and communication: addressing a critical moment?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pidgeon, Nick

    2012-06-01

    Climate change is an increasingly salient issue for societies and policy-makers worldwide. It now raises fundamental interdisciplinary issues of risk and uncertainty analysis and communication. The growing scientific consensus over the anthropogenic causes of climate change appears to sit at odds with the increasing use of risk discourses in policy: for example, to aid in climate adaptation decision making. All of this points to a need for a fundamental revision of our conceptualization of what it is to do climate risk communication. This Special Collection comprises seven papers stimulated by a workshop on "Climate Risk Perceptions and Communication" held at Cumberland Lodge Windsor in 2010. Topics addressed include climate uncertainties, images and the media, communication and public engagement, uncertainty transfer in climate communication, the role of emotions, localization of hazard impacts, and longitudinal analyses of climate perceptions. Climate change risk perceptions and communication work is critical for future climate policy and decisions. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. The politics of urban climate risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blok, Anders

    2018-01-01

    makes valuable contributions, this article suggests that all of them remain under-theorized from the point of view of the specific dynamics of local–global interdependencies in urban climate risk politics. In response, the article draws on Beck in outlining the contours of new urban–cosmopolitan risk...... communities. To this effect, empirical studies into large-scale East Asian and European port cities is used to illustrate how a shared transnational risk imaginary (e.g. of future sea-level rises) may help spur collective action and new forms of trans-boundary solidarity. Reflecting on such research practices...

  5. Making sense of climate risk information: The case of future indoor climate risks in Swedish churches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gustaf Leijonhufvud

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Organizations and institutions managing built heritage have to make use of increasingly detailed, elaborate and complex climate change impact assessments. It is a challenge to determine how, when and by whom climate predictions should be translated into risk estimates usable for decision-making. In this paper results from the Climate for Culture project are used to study how heritage decision-makers interpret future indoor climate-related risks to Swedish churches. Different sets of risk maps were presented to ten engineers, ten building conservators and five experts on indoor climate related risks. Interviews were used to understand how the interviewees made sense of the presented information and if they associated it with a perceived need for adaptation. The results show that the risks were interpreted and assessed largely dependent on their pre-understanding and familiarity with the individual risks. The magnitude of change and the lack of uncertainty estimates were subordinate to the overall impression of the information as being credible and salient. The major conclusion is that the dissemination of risk information, also from projects which at the outset have aimed at producing knowledge relevant for end-users, should be both customized and tested in collaborative efforts by stakeholders and scientists.

  6. Adaptation aux changements climatiques dans les établissements ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Beaucoup de travaux de recherche portent sur les causes de la vulnérabilité, toutefois, pour ... Climate change adaptation in informal settings: Understanding and ... Reducing the Risk of Water Pollution in Vulnerable Coastal Communities of ...

  7. Being Prepared for Climate Change: Checklists of Potential Climate Change Risks, from Step 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Being Prepared for Climate Change workbook is a guide for constructing a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. These checklists (from Step 3 of the workbook) help users identify risks.

  8. Brand value at risk from climate change

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2005-11-15

    This report focuses on how climate change will become more visible as an issue over the next 5 years, from extreme weather events, to press coverage of the political debate over issues such as post-2012 international emissions regulation and the need or otherwise for nuclear power. The report stresses that in this context, climate change could become a mainstream consumer issue by 2010. How much this matters to companies will depend upon their sector. The report analyses six sectors in detail: Airlines and Food and Beverages were found to have the highest intangible value at risk (50% and 10% of market value respectively) - interestingly more than Oil and Gas. Results for our other four sectors - Oil and Gas, Retail, Banking and Telecommunications - were much lower at less than 2-3% of market value; however even this small percentage can still equate to several billions of pounds in value in the UK market (FTSE All Share) alone. The analysis has focused on consumer brand value. Other reputational elements at risk include a company's reputation amongst its business customers, staff, suppliers, shareholders and regulators. The findings raise a series of challenging questions. If brand value is at risk from climate change, there is an opportunity for differentiation against competitors. Forward looking companies at least need to assess the risks and issues, to avoid falling behind in such a mainstream consumer issue. Companies also need to understand the response time. How long is the lead time for a supermarket to start offering a local alternative to long-haul fresh vegetables? How does this compare to the time it would take for an airline to replace an ageing fleet stock? In many cases, even though the consumer interest may be several years away, action is needed now. (UK)

  9. Quantifying the economic risks of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaz, Delavane; Moore, Frances

    2017-11-01

    Understanding the value of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions matters for policy decisions and climate risk management, but quantification is challenging because of the complex interactions and uncertainties in the Earth and human systems, as well as normative ethical considerations. Current modelling approaches use damage functions to parameterize a simplified relationship between climate variables, such as temperature change, and economic losses. Here we review and synthesize the limitations of these damage functions and describe how incorporating impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research advances and empirical findings could substantially improve damage modelling and the robustness of social cost of carbon values produced. We discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with integrating these research advances into cost-benefit integrated assessment models, with guidance for future work.

  10. Built cultural heritage facing climate change risks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, Roger-Alexandre; Martin, Daniel

    2011-01-01

    The built cultural heritage would face important risks in the frame of climate change. They are well identified by the major international organizations, but only in a qualitative manner, and mainly refer on the action of water or on its absence. The most active research is supported by the European Commission. The results obtained by the European project 'Noah's Ark' are the most important at the day. Dose-Response Functions with predictive climate models are used to produce vulnerability maps at a European scale of which one example is presented. The recommendations of the Council of Europe for policy makers and researchers are developed as a conclusion. Three case studies are synthesized in annex of this article: Venice, London and Paris. (authors)

  11. Investment risks under uncertain climate change policy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blyth, William; Bradley, Richard; Yang, Ming; Bunn, Derek; Clarke, Charlie; Wilson, Tom

    2007-01-01

    This paper describes results from a model of decision-making under uncertainty using a real options methodology, developed by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The model represents investment decisions in power generation from the perspective of a private company. The investments are subject to uncertain future climate policy, which is treated as an external risk factor over which the company has no control. The aims of this paper are to (i) quantify these regulatory risks in order to improve understanding of how policy uncertainty may affect investment behaviour by private companies and (ii) illustrate the effectiveness of the real options approach as a policy analysis tool. The study analysed firms' investment options of coal- and gas-fired power plants and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. Policy uncertainty is represented as an exogenous event that creates uncertainty in the carbon price. Our findings indicate that climate policy uncertainty creates a risk premium for power generation investments. In the case of gas- and coal-fired power generation, the risk premium would lead to an increase in electricity prices of 5-10% in order to stimulate investment. In the case of CCS, the risk premium would increase the carbon price required to stimulate investment by 16-37% compared to a situation of perfect certainty. The option to retrofit CCS acts as a hedge against high future carbon prices, and could accelerate investment in coal plant. This paper concludes that to minimise investment risks in low carbon technologies, policy-makers should aim to provide some long-term regulatory certainty. (author)

  12. Stakes and modalities of the climatic risk covering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marteau, D.

    2006-01-01

    Several econometric works show that climatic volatility is at the first rank of the risk factors in several economic sectors like energy, textile, agriculture and food, tourism, leisure, building industries etc. However, climate remains an underestimated economic factor for several reasons: lack of awareness about the comparative stakes of climate risks management and market risks management, difficulties in the measurement of climate risk exposure, weak knowledge of covering techniques for private contract and organized markets, and unsolved question of risk sharing between shareholders and managers. This document analyzes the sensitivity of companies with respect to climate risk and describes the 5 steps of implementation of a climate covering policy: risk exposure measurement, risk bearing or transfer decision, definition of the optimum covering profile, choice of markets and covering instruments, efficiency measurement. A practical example is shown with its related questions. (J.S.)

  13. Climate change and coastal environmental risk perceptions in Florida.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlton, Stuart J; Jacobson, Susan K

    2013-11-30

    Understanding public perceptions of climate change risks is a prerequisite for effective climate communication and adaptation. Many studies of climate risk perceptions have either analyzed a general operationalization of climate change risk or employed a case-study approach of specific adaptive processes. This study takes a different approach, examining attitudes toward 17 specific, climate-related coastal risks and cognitive, affective, and risk-specific predictors of risk perception. A survey of 558 undergraduates revealed that risks to the physical environment were a greater concern than economic or biological risks. Perceptions of greater physical environment risks were significantly associated with having more pro-environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Democratic-leaning. Perceptions of greater economic risks were significantly associated with having more negative environmental attitudes, being female, and being more Republican-leaning. Perceptions of greater biological risks were significantly associated with more positive environmental attitudes. The findings suggest that focusing on physical environment risks maybe more salient to this audience than communications about general climate change adaptation. The results demonstrate that climate change beliefs and risk perceptions are multifactorial and complex and are shaped by individuals' attitudes and basic beliefs. Climate risk communications need to apply this knowledge to better target cognitive and affective processes of specific audiences, rather than providing simple characterizations of risks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    OpenAIRE

    Pol, van der, T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies. Chapter 2 provides an overview of cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and new information. CBA is applied to determine optimal dike height...

  15. Communities' perception of climate change risks in South America's ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2014-08-15

    Aug 15, 2014 ... uses an Integrated Coastal Management approach and stakeholder perceptions of climate change risks to inform wetland management. ... has been made worse by extreme events tied to climate change. ... Related articles ...

  16. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents. -- Highlights: •Climate risks to energy infrastructures adversely impact energy security. •Case studies of a port and a railway show their future climate change vulnerability. •Managing climate-induced risks through preventive adaptation policies

  17. Economic analysis and management of climatic risks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hourcade, J.C. (Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement, 92 - Montrouge (France))

    1994-01-01

    This paper aims at framing the collective decision problem in the face of climate change. It shows why it would be irrelevant to handle it in the form of a classical decision under uncertainty framework where a cost-benefit analysis is carried out including probability distribution on damages and risk aversion coefficients. A sequential approach to policy making is then proposed as an alternative in order to account for the inertia of socio-economic dynamics and the value of information. A simple model illustrates the gap between these two approaches; it shows the importance of combining the investments on climatic research, innovation policies and so-called 'no regret' short term decisions. It shows the fact that, even if they can be considered as quantitatively moderate, these potentials have a critical impact on long term viability of development; they embed a very high information value, lengthening the learning time vis-a-vis potentially major but controversial risks. (author). 21 refs., 3 figs.

  18. Climate Change and Food-Related Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Isidro Juan Mirón Pérez

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available There are two principal concepts to take into account relating food and climate change: food security and food safety. Most papers linking climate change to food risks deal with the first one: the security of the food supply.The increase of the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, together with the rise of the temperatures on a global level would theorically lead to greater yields of crops grown for human and animal consumption. Howevwe, most of these studies have shown that, in general, crop yields are decreasing as this global change also brings about an increase in the frequency of extreme weather events. In adition, these weather anomalies would be unevenly spread and affect developing countries, which are less capable of tackling this change, more severely. All these factors would result in greater uncertainty in the supply of food, which consequently would be less predictable and leave it more exposed to market speculation.A rise in average temperatures would be expected to increase the risk of proliferation of foodborne disease-causing microorganisms such as Salmonella or Campylobacter. Nevertheless, a trend of this sort has not been detected yet in developed countries, where information systems allow the temporal evolution of the occurrence of those diseases to be tracked, since means for food preservation and food controls are wide spread.

  19. Climatology in support of climate risk management : a progress report.

    OpenAIRE

    McGregor, G.R.

    2015-01-01

    Climate risk management has emerged over the last decade as a distinct area of activity within the wider field of climatology. Its focus is on integrating climate and non-climate information in order to enhance the decision-making process in a wide range of climate-sensitive sectors of society, the economy and the environment. Given the burgeoning pure and applied climate science literature that addresses a range of climate risks, the purpose of this progress report is to provide an overview ...

  20. Climate change, uncertainty and investment in flood risk reduction

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.

    2015-01-01

    Economic analysis of flood risk management strategies has become more complex due to climate change. This thesis investigates the impact of climate change on investment in flood risk reduction, and applies optimisation methods to support identification of optimal flood risk management strategies.

  1. Economics and management of climate change: risks, mitigation and adaptation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Antes, Ralf

    2008-01-01

    ... climate change poses risks to societies and companies, nor about adequate strategies to cope with these risks. Bringing together scholars from environmental economics, political science, and business management, this book describes, analyses and evaluates climate change risks and responses of societies and companies. The book c...

  2. Climate change and coastal aquaculture farmers’ risk perceptions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ahsan, Dewan; Brandt, Urs Steiner

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the issue of risk perception in relation to climate change threats, comparison of risk perceptions in two different regions, and derives general results of what affect peoples’ level of risk perceptions. Revelation of individual risk perception is essential for local acceptance...... and cooperation. We do this by a comparative study with Bangladesh shrimp farmers and Danish mussel farmers. Since these people live on the edge of subsistence, already small changes in the climate will affect them significantly. Farmers in both developed and developing economies are concerned about global...... climate change but there are significant differences in farmers’ perceptions of the causes of global climate change in developed and developing countries....

  3. Changes in drought risk with climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mullan, B.; Porteous, A.; Wratt, D.; Hollis, M.

    2005-05-01

    As human activity adds more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, most climate change scenarios predict rising temperatures and decreased rainfall in the east of New Zealand. This means eastern parts of the country are expected to experience more droughts as the 21st century goes on. Our report seeks for the first time to define the possible range of changes in future drought risk. This report was commissioned because of the importance of drought for agriculture and water resources. The report aims to give central and local government and the agriculture sector an indication of how big future drought changes could be in the various regions. This information can be relevant in managing long-term water resources and land use, including planning for irrigation schemes.

  4. Climate risks for the Midwestern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barthelmie, R. J.; Pryor, S. C.; Scavia, D.; Downer, C. W.; Gaden, M.; Iverson, L.; Nordstrom, R.; Patz, J.; Robertson, G. P.

    2012-12-01

    The Midwest comprises about 20% of the US population, contributes 20% of the national gross domestic product, plays a key role in the nation's food production and is home to a number of major urban centers and critical infrastructure. In 2011, eleven of the record fourteen weather-related disasters with damages of over $1 billion in the United States affected the Midwest, and 2012 has seen widespread drought that have devastated yields of essential agricultural crops. In this presentation, we briefly summarize key vulnerabilities within the region and document adaptation steps that have been and are being taken to enhance resilience. Based on the current literature and robust projections for key climate-relevant metrics defined using historical data and computed primarily from output of the NARCCAP simulations, our major findings are as follows: 1) In the short term, longer growing seasons and rising carbon dioxide levels will tend to increase certain crop yields. However, in some cases, those benefits will be offset by increased occurrence of extreme events such as heat-waves, droughts and floods. 2) The species composition of natural ecosystems is expected to change as habitats for many tree species shift northward. The role of the regions forests as a net sink of carbon is at risk from the combined effect of multiple stressors. 3) Increased heat wave intensity and frequency, degraded air quality, and reduced water quality will increase public health risks. For example, there is evidence that in the absence of major mitigation efforts, the frequency of days in Chicago with temperatures in excess of 90 deg F will double by the middle part of this century. 4) The Midwest has a highly energy-intensive economy and emits a disproportionately large amount of heat-trapping gases. It also has a large, and increasingly realized, potential to reduce emissions that cause climate change. Energy infrastructure in the region is vulnerable to increased demand (e.g., the Midwest

  5. Climatic change in Germany. Development, consequences, risks and perspectives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brasseur, Guy; Jacob, Daniela; Schuck-Zoeller, Susanne

    2017-01-01

    The book on the climatic change in Germany includes contributions to the following issues: global climate projections and regional projections in Germany and Europe: observation of the climatic change in Central Europe, regional climate modeling, limits and challenges of the regional climate modeling; climatic change in Germany - regional features and extremes: temperature and heat waves, precipitation, wind and cyclones, sea-level increase, tides, storm floods and sea state, floods, definition uncertainties, draughts, forest fires, natural risks; consequences of the climatic change in Germany: air quality, health, biodiversity, water resources, biochemical cycles, agriculture, forestry, soils, personal and commercial transport, cities and urban regions, tourism, infrastructure, energy and water supplies, cost of the climatic change and economic consequences; overall risks and uncertainties: assessment of vulnerabilities, literature review, climatic change as risk enhancement in complex systems, overall risks and uncertainties, decision making under uncertainties in complex systems; integrated strategies for the adaptation to the climatic change: the climate resilient society - transformations and system changes, adaptation to the climatic change as new political field, options for adaptation strategies.

  6. Visualization of the chains of risks under global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yokohata, T.; Nishina, K.; Takahashi, K.; Kiguchi, M.; Iseri, Y.; Sueyoshi, T.; Yoshimori, M.; Iwase, K.; Yamamoto, A.; Shigemitsu, M.; Honda, Y.; Hanasaki, N.; Masaki, Y.; Ito, A.; Iizumi, T.; Sakurai, G.; Okada, M.; Emori, S.; Oki, T.

    2014-12-01

    Anthropogenic climate change possibly causes various impacts on human society and ecosystem. Here, we call possible damages or benefits caused by the future climate change as "climate risks". Many climate risks are closely interconnected with each other by direct cause-effect relationship. In this study, the major climate risks are comprehensively summarized based on the survey of studies in the literature using IPCC AR5 etc, and their cause-effect relationship are visualized by a "network diagram". This research is conducted by the collaboration between the experts of various fields, such as water, energy, agriculture, health, society, and eco-system under the project called ICA-RUS (Integrated Climate Assessment - Risks, Uncertainties and Society). First, the climate risks are classified into 9 categories (water, energy, food, health, disaster, industry, society, ecosystem, and tipping elements). Second, researchers of these fields in our project survey the research articles, and pick up items of climate risks, and possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items. A long list of the climate risks is summarized into ~130, and that of possible cause-effect relationship between the risk items is summarized into ~300, because the network diagram would be illegible if the number of the risk items and cause-effect relationship is too large. Here, we only consider the risks that could occur if climate mitigation policies are not conducted. Finally, the chain of climate risks is visualized by creating a "network diagram" based on a network graph theory (Fruchtman & Reingold algorithm). Through the analysis of network diagram, we find that climate risks at various sectors are closely related. For example, the decrease in the precipitation under the global climate change possibly causes the decrease in river runoff and the decrease in soil moisture, which causes the changes in crop production. The changes in crop production can have an impact on society by

  7. Energy infrastructure in India: Profile and risks under climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Garg, Amit; Naswa, Prakriti; Shukla, P.R.

    2015-01-01

    risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies - a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.......5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co......-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters...

  8. Rural Nevada and climate change: vulnerability, beliefs, and risk perception.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Safi, Ahmad Saleh; Smith, William James; Liu, Zhnongwei

    2012-06-01

    In this article, we present the results of a study investigating the influence of vulnerability to climate change as a function of physical vulnerability, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity on climate change risk perception. In 2008/2009, we surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers to assess their climate change-related beliefs, and risk perceptions, political orientations, and socioeconomic characteristics. Ranchers' and farmers' sensitivity to climate change was measured through estimating the proportion of their household income originating from highly scarce water-dependent agriculture to the total income. Adaptive capacity was measured as a combination of the Social Status Index and the Poverty Index. Utilizing water availability and use, and population distribution GIS databases; we assessed water resource vulnerability in Nevada by zip code as an indicator of physical vulnerability to climate change. We performed correlation tests and multiple regression analyses to examine the impact of vulnerability and its three distinct components on risk perception. We find that vulnerability is not a significant determinant of risk perception. Physical vulnerability alone also does not impact risk perception. Both sensitivity and adaptive capacity increase risk perception. While age is not a significant determinant of it, gender plays an important role in shaping risk perception. Yet, general beliefs such as political orientations and climate change-specific beliefs such as believing in the anthropogenic causes of climate change and connecting the locally observed impacts (in this case drought) to climate change are the most prominent determinants of risk perception. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Communiquer les risques associés au climat aux collectivités ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    13 mai 2015 ... Le Vietnam est particulièrement vulnérable aux changements climatiques et à la hausse du niveau des océans qui en découle, puisqu'une partie importante de sa population vit dans les basses terres des deltas et le long de la côte, des zones à haut risque. En 2011, d'importantes inondations ont ...

  10. Climate Change - A New Risk Reality for Utility Companies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Nelson, William R.; Cramer, Espen; Torstad, Elisabeth; Rosnes, Olafr

    2010-09-15

    Climate change introduces new and complex risk factors affecting the power sector. In DNV's experience, the companies that manage to control risk and take advantage of the opportunities in a changing business environment are more likely to succeed. This paper gives an overview of the main risks and opportunities of climate change facing the sector. Through a survey of the European and North American power sector, DNV has mapped the industry's views on the risk picture. The survey identifies what the industry players consider to be viable strategies for the sector in tackling the new risk reality of climate change.

  11. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-13

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  12. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-01-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712800

  13. Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adger, W. Neil; Brown, Iain; Surminski, Swenja

    2018-06-01

    Climate change risk assessment involves formal analysis of the consequences, likelihoods and responses to the impacts of climate change and the options for addressing these under societal constraints. Conventional approaches to risk assessment are challenged by the significant temporal and spatial dynamics of climate change; by the amplification of risks through societal preferences and values; and through the interaction of multiple risk factors. This paper introduces the theme issue by reviewing the current practice and frontiers of climate change risk assessment, with specific emphasis on the development of adaptation policy that aims to manage those risks. These frontiers include integrated assessments, dealing with climate risks across borders and scales, addressing systemic risks, and innovative co-production methods to prioritize solutions to climate challenges with decision-makers. By reviewing recent developments in the use of large-scale risk assessment for adaptation policy-making, we suggest a forward-looking research agenda to meet ongoing strategic policy requirements in local, national and international contexts. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  14. A Climate Change Risk and Resilience Assessment Process

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Myers, Lisa [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-09-07

    This presentation summarizes a site-specific climate resilience planning process applied at two different U.S. Department of Energy sites, in Colorado and along the Gulf Coast that federal site managers can use to identify and analyze potential climate-related risks and explore resilience options to minimize those risks.

  15. Safety Climate, Perceived Risk, and Involvement in Safety Management

    OpenAIRE

    Kouabenan , Dongo Rémi; Ngueutsa , Robert ,; Safiétou , Mbaye

    2015-01-01

    International audience; This article examines the relationship between safety climate, risk perception and involvement in safety management by first-line managers (FLM). Sixty-three FLMs from two French nuclear plants answered a questionnaire measuring perceived workplace safety climate, perceived risk, and involvement in safety management. We hypothesized that a positive perception of safety climate would promote substantial involvement in safety management, and that this effect would be str...

  16. Managing Climate Risk. Integrating Adaptation into World Bank Group Operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Aalst, M.

    2006-08-01

    Climate change is already taking place, and further changes are inevitable. Developing countries, and particularly the poorest people in these countries, are most at risk. The impacts result not only from gradual changes in temperature and sea level but also, in particular, from increased climate variability and extremes, including more intense floods, droughts, and storms. These changes are already having major impacts on the economic performance of developing countries and on the lives and livelihoods of millions of poor people around the world. Climate change thus directly affects the World Bank Group's mission of eradicating poverty. It also puts at risk many projects in a wide range of sectors, including infrastructure, agriculture, human health, water resources, and environment. The risks include physical threats to the investments, potential underperformance, and the possibility that projects will indirectly contribute to rising vulnerability by, for example, triggering investment and settlement in high-risk areas. The way to address these concerns is not to separate climate change adaptation from other priorities but to integrate comprehensive climate risk management into development planning, programs, and projects. While there is a great need to heighten awareness of climate risk in Bank work, a large body of experience on climate risk management is already available, in analytical work, in country dialogues, and in a growing number of investment projects. This operational experience highlights the general ingredients for successful integration of climate risk management into the mainstream development agenda: getting the right sectoral departments and senior policy makers involved; incorporating risk management into economic planning; engaging a wide range of nongovernmental actors (businesses, nongovernmental organizations, communities, and so on); giving attention to regulatory issues; and choosing strategies that will pay off immediately under current

  17. Risk Communication, Moral Emotions and Climate Change.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Roeser, S.

    2012-01-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt

  18. Transmission of climate risks across sectors and borders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andy J.; Adger, W. Neil; Benton, Tim G.; Conway, Declan; Joshi, Manoj; Frame, Dave

    2018-06-01

    Systemic climate risks, which result from the potential for cascading impacts through inter-related systems, pose particular challenges to risk assessment, especially when risks are transmitted across sectors and international boundaries. Most impacts of climate variability and change affect regions and jurisdictions in complex ways, and techniques for assessing this transmission of risk are still somewhat limited. Here, we begin to define new approaches to risk assessment that can account for transboundary and trans-sector risk transmission, by presenting: (i) a typology of risk transmission that distinguishes clearly the role of climate versus the role of the social and economic systems that distribute resources; (ii) a review of existing modelling, qualitative and systems-based methods of assessing risk and risk transmission; and (iii) case studies that examine risk transmission in human displacement, food, water and energy security. The case studies show that policies and institutions can attenuate risks significantly through cooperation that can be mutually beneficial to all parties. We conclude with some suggestions for assessment of complex risk transmission mechanisms: use of expert judgement; interactive scenario building; global systems science and big data; innovative use of climate and integrated assessment models; and methods to understand societal responses to climate risk. These approaches aim to inform both research and national-level risk assessment.

  19. Shaping the Planetary Climate? The Prospects for Climate Engineering; Climatiser la planete? Les perspectives de l'ingenierie climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marsollat, B.

    2011-04-15

    For several years now, global warming has occupied a leading place in the list of major challenges humanity has to confront and is, therefore, very logically the focus of regular international negotiations aimed at contributing to a solution. For the moment, however, the only international political responses envisaged for curbing climate change attack the identified cause of the problem - greenhouse gas emissions - with the intention of reducing the volume of those emissions in the shortest possible time-frame. However, as Baptiste Marsollat shows here, other, more technological responses exist which consist not in working on greenhouse gas emissions, but either in capturing/imprisoning these gases or, more ambitiously, in modifying solar radiation to reduce ongoing climate warming. This would mean applying the techniques of climate engineering or geo-engineering. Such a prospect has generated great controversy, but it cannot, for all that, be ignored indefinitely in the thinking on combating global warming. This article reviews the subject of climate engineering (what is it and to what extent can we do it?) and the role it might play in the battle against climate change. It shows how this - long-tabooed - option is now finding a place within the most official circles in the Anglo-Saxon world. Without concealing the concerns to which it may, more or less justifiably, give rise, Marsollat shows that, faced with a dramatic choice, we might opt in the end for climate engineering as a way to fight global warming. And from a more proactive perspective, he also suggests we should reflect on how appropriate it might be to use it for shaping the planet's climate and, in that way, for meeting a number of other major challenges. (author)

  20. Climate risk assessment in museums : degradation risks determined from temperature and relative humidity data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Martens, M.H.J.

    2012-01-01

    The main subject of this thesis is the determination of climate risks to objects in museums on the basis of measured and/or simulated temperature and relative humidity data. The focus is on the quantification of climate related risks for the preservation quality of indoor climate in Dutch museums.

  1. On Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference and Climate Change Risk (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, M. E.

    2009-12-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) commits signatory nations (which includes all major nations including the United States) to stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at levels short of Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference (“ DAI”) with the climate. To properly define DAI, one must take into account issues that are not only scientific, but, economic, political, and ethical in nature. Defining DAI is furthermore complicated by the inter-generational and regionally-disaggregated nature of the risks associated with climate change. In this talk, I will explore the nature of anthropogenic climate change risks and the notion of DAI.

  2. Relationships between bullying, school climate, and student risk behaviors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Jennifer; Cornell, Dewey; Konold, Timothy

    2012-09-01

    This study examined whether characteristics of a positive school climate were associated with lower student risk behavior in a sample of 3,687 high school students who completed the School Climate Bullying Survey and questions about risk behavior from the Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance Survey (YRBS). Confirmatory factor analyses established fit for 20 items with three hypothesized school climate scales measuring (1) prevalence of bullying and teasing; (2) aggressive attitudes; and (3) student willingness to seek help. Structural equation modeling established the relationship of these measures with student reports of risk behavior. Multigroup analyses identified differential effects across gender and race. A positive school climate could be an important protective factor in preventing student risk behavior.

  3. Western forests, fire risk, and climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerie. Rapp

    2004-01-01

    Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

  4. Western forest, fire risk, and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valerie Rapp

    2004-01-01

    Climate warming may first show up in forests as increased growth, which occurs as warmer temperatures, increased carbon dioxide, and more precipitation encourage higher rates of photosynthesis. The second way that climate change may show up in forests is through changes in disturbance regimes—the long-term patterns of fire, drought, insects, and diseases that are basic...

  5. Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Liverman, D.; Barker, T.; Jotzo, F.; Kammen, D.M.; Leemans, R.; Lenton, T.M.; Munasinghe, M.; Osman-Elasha, B.; Schellnhuber, H.J.; Stern, N.; Vogel, C.; Waever, O.

    2011-01-01

    Providing an up-to-date synthesis of knowledge relevant to the climate change issue, this book ranges from the basic science documenting the need for policy action to the technologies, economic instruments and political strategies that can be employed in response to climate change. Ethical and

  6. Managing climate change risk : emerging financial sector expectations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Williams, R.

    2004-01-01

    Engagement of the financial sector in the climate change debate is apparent, with social investors and advocacy groups launching 32 climate change related shareholder resolutions with American and Canadian energy companies in 2003. Eos Research and Consulting Ltd. recently conducted a study to examine emerging standards for how energy companies manage climate change related risks. A survey was conducted in the first part of the study to determine the environmental awareness of energy companies. Financial firms were asked whether they sought information concerning GHG inventories; projections of future emissions; action plans for addressing climate change and energy efficiency; evaluation of relative risk; estimation of cost of carbon; assessment of financial impact; evaluation of future regulations; and emissions trading activity. The second part of the study compared the response of 11 leading energy companies. The result was 2 opposing views on how climate change risks should be managed. The survey revealed that while most mainstream financial institutions are not paying much attention to climate change issues, socially responsible investment (SRI) investors are aware and working to factor climate change risk management information into their activities. In addition, SRI is growing at a faster pace than other investment segments, which may lead to greater future expectations for energy companies' climate change risk management efforts. It was concluded that the financial sector may emerge as an important source of direction that will guide energy companies in their future efforts to manage climate change risks. The five trends that contribute to the sector's emerging role are the continuing influence of advocacy groups; evolution of socially responsible approaches to investment; growing concerns for reputation; development of financial risk assessment approaches in terms of climate change; and, increase focus on corporate governance issues. 15 refs., 2 tabs., 1

  7. The understanding of world climate change; Les connaissances sur le changement climatique mondial

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Petit, M.

    2008-07-01

    After having recalled that the problem of global warming in relationship with human activities has been studied since the end of the nineteenth century and since then by different scientific programs, the author describes how the IPCC's or Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report is produced. He briefly comments how Earth's temperature is determined and the various natural parameters which influence the climate on Earth. He recalls how the IPCC showed the actual influence of human activities, and which changes have actually been observed

  8. Hurricane risk management and climate information gatekeeping in southeast Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Treuer, G.; Bolson, J.

    2013-12-01

    Tropical storms provide fresh water necessary for healthy economies and health ecosystems. Hurricanes, massive tropical storms, threaten catastrophic flooding and wind damage. Sea level rise exacerbates flooding risks from rain and storm surge for coastal communities. Climate change adaptation measures to manage this risk must be implemented locally, but actions at other levels of government and by neighboring communities impact the options available to local municipalities. When working on adaptation local decision makers must balance multiple types of risk: physical or scientifically described risks, legal risks, and political risks. Generating usable or actionable climate science is a goal of the academic climate community. To do this we need to expand our analysis to include types of risk that constrain the use of objective science. Integrating physical, legal, and political risks is difficult. Each requires specific expertise and uses unique language. An opportunity exists to study how local decision makers manage all three on a daily basis and how their risk management impacts climate resilience for communities and ecosystems. South Florida's particular vulnerabilities make it an excellent case study. Besides physical vulnerabilities (low elevation, intense coastal development, frequent hurricanes, compromised ecosystems) it also has unique legal and political challenges. Federal and state property rights protections create legal risks for government action that restricts land use to promote climate adaptation. Also, a lack of cases that deal with climate change creates uncertainty about the nature of these legal risks. Politically Florida is divided ideologically and geographically. The regions in the southeast which are most vulnerable are predominantly Hispanic and under-represented at the state level, where leadership on climate change is functionally nonexistent. It is conventional wisdom amongst water managers in Florida that little climate adaptation

  9. The american policy towards the climatic changes; La politique americaine envers les changements climatiques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kopp, R.; Hessler, Ch.

    2002-07-01

    The 15 january 2002 brought together two eminent experts on US energy politics and some forty government, private sector and university French decision makers to discuss the topic of the US energy policies in the context of climatic change. the main ideas of the discussions are summarized in this document. (A.L.B.)

  10. Investing in Disaster Risk Management in an Uncertain Climate

    OpenAIRE

    McDermott, Thomas K.J.

    2016-01-01

    Climate change will exacerbate the challenges associated with environmental conditions, especially weather variability and extremes, in developing countries. These challenges play important, if as yet poorly understood roles in the development prospects of affected regions. As such, climate change reinforces the development case for investment in disaster risk management. Uncertainty about...

  11. analysis and mapping of climate change risk and vulnerability

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ACSS

    Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia, to determine the degree of climate risk and the relative vulnerability of the districts, to climate .... widely used index for quantifying drought, was extracted from ... semivariogram/Covariance model) in ArcGIS 9.3.

  12. Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    27 mars 2008 ... Integrating Indigenous Knowledge in Climate Risk Management in support of Community Based Adaptation. Traditionally, African farmers have used indigenous knowledge to understand weather and climate patterns and make decisions about crop and irrigation cycles. However, increased variability ...

  13. Managing climatic risks for enhanced food security: Key information capabilities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balaghi, R.; Badjeck, M.C.; Bakari, D.; Pauw, de E.D.; Wit, de A.J.W.; Defourny, P.; Donato, S.; Gommes, R.; Jlibene, M.; Ravelo, A.C.; Sivakumar, M.V.K.; Telahigue, N.; Tychon, B.

    2010-01-01

    Food security is expected to face increasing challenges from climatic risks that are more and more exacerbated by climate change, especially in the developing world. This document lists some of the main capabilities that have been recently developed, especially in the area of operational

  14. Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands : enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, Joop; Botzen, W. J Wouter; Terpstra, Teun

    2016-01-01

    Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk

  15. Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: Enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, J.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Terpstra, T.

    2016-01-01

    Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk

  16. Risks of adverse impacts from climate change in Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Vincent, K

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available In this chapter, the terms hazard exposure, sensitivity (or biophysical vulnerability), adaptive capacity (or its opposite - social vulnerability) and risk are introduced (see Box 4.1 for key definitions). Whether or not climate change is likely...

  17. The new energy challenges: climate, economy, geopolitics; Les nouveaux defis de l'energie: climat, economie, geopolitique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chevalier, J.M. [Paris-Dauphine Univ., 75 - Paris (France); Aoun, M.C.; Campaner, N.; Cruciani, M.; Geoffron, P.; Gubaidullin, A.; Hristova, I.; Keppler, J.H.; Lautier, D.; Mandil, C.; Meritet, S.; Ouedraogo, N.; Rouhier, S.; Salaun, F.; Simon, Y.; Zaleski, C.P

    2009-07-01

    Oil, coal and natural gas, three polluting and non-renewable energies, supply more than 80% of the World daily energy consumption. Today, the scientific community has acknowledged the responsibility of this consumption on the global warming which may have dramatic impacts on physical, economical, social and political equilibria of our planet. Climate has become a public resource which belongs to everybody, the management of which should be done collectively and prospectively. However, the nation-states defend their wealth, their immediate interest without globalization and long-term outlook. This book treats of the new energy challenges under their regional and global aspects. This allows to better understand the dynamics of a multipolar world. Each region of the world has its own specificity, its capital of natural resources, its history, its own level of economic development, and its vulnerability with respect to climate change. For hundreds of million people, priority is given to the economic growth and wealth generation, but such a priority is synonymous of rise of the energy consumption and increase of greenhouse gas emissions. This opposition between 'more energy' and 'less emissions' is source of new economical and geopolitical tensions. Only a reinforcement of the world governance can solve these contradictions by the affirmation of a solidarity between populations, and for the first time, between generations. (J.S.)

  18. RISK, VULNERABILITY AND ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE: AN INTERDISCIPLINARY APPROACH

    OpenAIRE

    Iwama,Allan Yu; Batistella,Mateus; Ferreira,Lúcia da Costa; Alves,Diogenes Salas; Ferreira,Leila da Costa

    2016-01-01

    Abstract This study addresses risk, vulnerability, and their implications for the adaptation of communities to the problems they face in the everyday life and to those derived from climate change. Based on the literature about risk, vulnerability and adaptation to disasters and on a case study conducted in the Northern coast of São Paulo - Brazil, we summarize the converging themes in the analysis of vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, which are divided in three components: (i) in...

  19. The climatic scenario of global warming; Les scenarios climatiques de rechauffement

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deque, M

    2007-07-01

    This presentation shows how the ARPEGE model, which is the regional model of Meteo-France, responds to the forcing results of the A2 scenario of the GIEC for the parameters of temperature and rainfalls. It emerges from the study that the main impact in France of the climatic change is an increase of the temperature in all seasons, an increase of the rains in winter and a decrease of the rains in summer. (A.L.B.)

  20. Evaluation of Projected Agricultural Climate Risk over the Contiguous US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, X.; Troy, T. J.; Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    Food demands are rising due to an increasing population with changing food preferences, which places pressure on agricultural production. Additionally, climate extremes have recently highlighted the vulnerability of our agricultural system to climate variability. This study seeks to fill two important gaps in current knowledge: how does the widespread response of irrigated crops differ from rainfed and how can we best account for uncertainty in yield responses. We developed a stochastic approach to evaluate climate risk quantitatively to better understand the historical impacts of climate change and estimate the future impacts it may bring about to agricultural system. Our model consists of Bayesian regression, distribution fitting, and Monte Carlo simulation to simulate rainfed and irrigated crop yields at the US county level. The model was fit using historical data for 1970-2010 and was then applied over different climate regions in the contiguous US using the CMIP5 climate projections. The relative importance of many major growing season climate indices, such as consecutive dry days without rainfall or heavy precipitation, was evaluated to determine what climate indices play a role in affecting future crop yields. The statistical modeling framework also evaluated the impact of irrigation by using county-level irrigated and rainfed yields separately. Furthermore, the projected years with negative yield anomalies were specifically evaluated in terms of magnitude, trend and potential climate drivers. This framework provides estimates of the agricultural climate risk for the 21st century that account for the full uncertainty of climate occurrences, range of crop response, and spatial correlation in climate. The results of this study can contribute to decision making about crop choice and water use in an uncertain future climate.

  1. Recursive inter-generational utility in global climate risk modeling

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Minh, Ha-Duong [Centre International de Recherche sur l' Environnement et le Developpement (CIRED-CNRS), 75 - Paris (France); Treich, N. [Institut National de Recherches Agronomiques (INRA-LEERNA), 31 - Toulouse (France)

    2003-07-01

    This paper distinguishes relative risk aversion and resistance to inter-temporal substitution in climate risk modeling. Stochastic recursive preferences are introduced in a stylized numeric climate-economy model using preliminary IPCC 1998 scenarios. It shows that higher risk aversion increases the optimal carbon tax. Higher resistance to inter-temporal substitution alone has the same effect as increasing the discount rate, provided that the risk is not too large. We discuss implications of these findings for the debate upon discounting and sustainability under uncertainty. (author)

  2. Avoiding Drought Risks and Social Conflict Under Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Towler, E.; Lazrus, H.; Paimazumder, D.

    2014-12-01

    Traditional drought research has mainly focused on physical drought risks and less on the cultural processes that also contribute to how drought risks are perceived and managed. However, as society becomes more vulnerable to drought and climate change threatens to increase water scarcity, it is clear that drought research would benefit from a more interdisciplinary approach. To assess avoided drought impacts from reduced climate change, drought risks need to be assessed in the context of both climate prediction as well as improved understanding of socio-cultural processes. To this end, this study explores a risk-based framework to combine physical drought likelihoods with perceived risks from stakeholder interviews. Results are presented from a case study on how stakeholders in south-central Oklahoma perceive drought risks given diverse cultural beliefs, water uses, and uncertainties in future drought prediction. Stakeholder interviews (n=38) were conducted in 2012 to understand drought risks to various uses of water, as well as to measure worldviews from the cultural theory of risk - a theory that explains why people perceive risks differently, potentially leading to conflict over management decisions. For physical drought risk, drought projections are derived from a large ensemble of future climates generated from two RCPs that represent higher and lower emissions trajectories (i.e., RCP8.5 and RCP4.5). These are used to develop a Combined Drought Risk Matrix (CDRM) that characterizes drought risks for different water uses as the products of both physical likelihood (from the climate ensemble) and risk perception (from the interviews). We use the CRDM to explore the avoided drought risks posed to various water uses, as well as to investigate the potential for reduction of conflict over water management.

  3. Climate wars: why we kill in the 21. century; Les guerres du climat: pourquoi on tue au 21. siecle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Welzer, H.

    2009-07-01

    In the author's view, global warming is less an issue for natural sciences than it is for cultural existence, as it threatens the shared living of human beings. Rising temperatures cause arable lands and inhabitable zones to shrink, deserts expand, water reserves dwindle or land is flooded. The poorest nations suffer the hardest, especially those with the weakest institutions and most limited capacities for countering catastrophe. In a struggle for survival, citizens of these nations will turn to violence to preserve the rights the now unprotected by the impoverished state. Climate change and violence result in sorely increased numbers of refugees; by 2050 their number will have grown tenfold. By that point, and as a result of the collapse of political and economic relations, the consequences of global warming will finally strike those comparatively unaffected nations, which the author dubs the 'trigger states'

  4. Using climate model simulations to assess the current climate risk to maize production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kent, Chris; Pope, Edward; Thompson, Vikki; Lewis, Kirsty; Scaife, Adam A.; Dunstone, Nick

    2017-05-01

    The relationship between the climate and agricultural production is of considerable importance to global food security. However, there has been relatively little exploration of climate-variability related yield shocks. The short observational yield record does not adequately sample natural inter-annual variability thereby limiting the accuracy of probability assessments. Focusing on the United States and China, we present an innovative use of initialised ensemble climate simulations and a new agro-climatic indicator, to calculate the risk of severe water stress. Combined, these regions provide 60% of the world’s maize, and therefore, are crucial to global food security. To probe a greater range of inter-annual variability, the indicator is applied to 1400 simulations of the present day climate. The probability of severe water stress in the major maize producing regions is quantified, and in many regions an increased risk is found compared to calculations from observed historical data. Analysis suggests that the present day climate is also capable of producing unprecedented severe water stress conditions. Therefore, adaptation plans and policies based solely on observed events from the recent past may considerably under-estimate the true risk of climate-related maize shocks. The probability of a major impact event occurring simultaneously across both regions—a multi-breadbasket failure—is estimated to be up to 6% per decade and arises from a physically plausible climate state. This novel approach highlights the significance of climate impacts on crop production shocks and provides a platform for considerably improving food security assessments, in the present day or under a changing climate, as well as development of new risk based climate services.

  5. Development of climate risk services under climate change scenarios in the North Adriatic coast (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valentina, Gallina; Silvia, Torresan; Anna, Sperotto; Elisa, Furlan; Andrea, Critto; Antonio, Marcomini

    2014-05-01

    Nowadays, the challenge for coastal stakeholders and decision makers is to incorporate climate change in land and policy planning in order to ensure a sustainable integrated coastal zone management aimed at preserve coastal environments and socio-economic activities. Consequently, an increasing amount of information on climate variability and its impact on human and natural ecosystem is requested. Climate risk services allows to bridge the gap between climate experts and decision makers communicating timely science-based information about impacts and risks related to climate change that could be incorporated into land planning, policy and practice. Within the CLIM-RUN project (FP7), a participatory Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology was applied for the evaluation of water-related hazards in coastal areas (i.e. pluvial flood and sea-level rise inundation risks) taking into consideration future climate change scenarios in the case study of the North Adriatic Sea for the period 2040-2050. Specifically, through the analysis of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk and the application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), the RRA methodology allowed to identify and prioritize targets (i.e. residential and commercial-industrial areas, beaches, infrastructures, wetlands, agricultural typology) and sub-areas that are more likely to be affected by pluvial flood and sea-level rise impacts in the same region. From the early stages of the climate risk services development and application, the RRA followed a bottom-up approach taking into account the needs, knowledge and perspectives of local stakeholders dealing with the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM), by means of questionnaires, workshops and focus groups organized within the project. Specifically, stakeholders were asked to provide their needs in terms of time scenarios, geographical scale and resolution, choice of receptors, vulnerability factors and thresholds that were considered in the

  6. Climate Change - Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Richardson, Katherine; Steffen, Will; Schellnhuber, Hans J.

    Past societies have reacted when they understood that their own activities were causing deleterious environmental change by controlling or modifying the offending activities. The scientific evidence has now become overwhelming that human activities, especially the combustion of fossil fuels......, are influencing the climate in ways that threaten the well-being and continued development of human society. If humanity is to learn from history and to limit these threats, the time has come for stronger control of the human activities that are changing the fundamental conditions for life on Earth. To decide...... on effective control measures, an understanding of how human activities are changing the climate, and of the implications of unchecked climate change, needs to be widespread among world and national leaders, as well as in the public. The purpose of this report is to provide, for a broad range of audiences...

  7. Flood risk and climate change in the Rotterdam area, The Netherlands: Enhancing citizen's climate risk perceptions and prevention responses despite skepticism

    OpenAIRE

    de Boer, J.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Terpstra, T.

    2016-01-01

    Effective communication about climate change and related risks is complicated by the polarization between “climate alarmists” and “skeptics.” This paper provides insights for the design of climate risk communication strategies by examining how the interplay between climate change and flood risk communication affects citizens’ risk perceptions and responses. The study is situated in a delta area with substantial geographic variations in the occurrence and potential impact of flood risk, which ...

  8. Statistically downscaled climate projections to support evaluating climate change risks for hydropower

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brekke, L.

    2008-01-01

    This paper described a web-served public access archive of down-scaled climate projections developed as a tool for water managers of river and hydropower systems. The archive provided access to climate projection data at basin-relevant resolution and included an extensive compilation of down-scale climate projects designed to support risk-based adaptation planning. Downscaled translations of 112 contemporary climate projections produced using the World Climate Research Program's coupled model intercomparison project were also included. Datasets for the coupled model included temperature and precipitation, monthly time-steps, and geographic coverage for the United States and portions of Mexico and Canada. It was concluded that the archive will be used to develop risk-based studies on shifts in seasonal patterns, changes in mean annual runoff, and associated responses in water resources and hydroelectric power management. Case studies demonstrating reclamation applications of archive content and potential applications for hydroelectric power production impacts were included. tabs., figs

  9. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Naomi J; White, Piran C L; McClean, Colin J; Marion, Glenn; Evans, Andy; Hutchings, Michael R

    2011-01-10

    Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  10. Predicting impacts of climate change on Fasciola hepatica risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naomi J Fox

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

  11. Climate impact on social systems. The risk assessment approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Svirezhev, Y.M.; Schellnhuber, H.-J.

    1993-01-01

    A novel approach to the problem of estimating climate impact on social systems is suggested. This approach is based on a risk concept, where the notion of critical events is introduced and the probability of such event is estimated. The estimation considers both the real stochasticity of climatic processes and the artificial stochasticity of climate predictions due to scientific uncertainties. The method is worked out in some detail for the regional problem of crop production and the risks associated with global climate change, and illustrated by a case study (Kursk region of the FSU). In order to get local climatic characteristics (weather) a so-called 'statistical weather generator' is used. One interesting finding is that the 3%-risk level remains constant up to 1- -1.1 deg. C rise of mean seasonal temperature, if the variance does not change. On the other hand, the risk grows rapidly with increasing variance (even if the mean temperature rises very slowly). The risk approach allows to separate two problems: (i) assessment of Global Change impact and (ii) decision-making. The main task for the scientific community is to provide the politicians with different options; the choice of admissible (from the social point of view) critical events and the corresponding risk levels is the business of decision makers. (au)

  12. Climate change : we are at risk : final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliver, D.; Wiebe, J.

    2003-11-01

    During the period November 2002 to May 2003, the effects of climate change on Canada's agricultural and forestry sectors and rural communities were investigated by the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry. The Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, and the 1998 ice storm were reviewed, along with the forest fires in Western Canada during the summer of 2003 and the unusual succession of dry years. This paper includes a discussion on climate change, agriculture, forests, water, rural communities, Aboriginal people, and potential adaptation options. Seven recommendations were made: (1) climate change impacts and adaptation efforts should be coordinated by the Government of Canada, (2) substantial increase in funding and allocation of resources for climate change impacts and adaptation research is required, (3) make water research a national priority, with emphasis on water supply and demand, (4) expand and increase the role and resources of the Canadian Climate Impacts and Adaptation Research Network (C-CIARN), (5) develop and quickly implement an education and communication strategy concerning risks and challenges associated with climate change and its impacts on agriculture and forests, (6) develop a long term safety net to allow farmers the opportunity to take advantage of possible opportunities resulting from climate change, and (7) implement a systematic review of existing and new programs and policies to assess climate change risks and opportunities. refs., figs

  13. Chandni Singh: Raising awareness about climate risk, adaptation in ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-01-08

    Jan 8, 2015 ... Chandni's PhD work on different perceptions of climate risk and how ... “Right now when you speak to a government official at the state ... Jyotiraj Patra: Investigating the use of research in disaster risk management in India.

  14. Communicating Coastal Risk Analysis in an Age of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-10-01

    extratropical storm systems); the geometry and geomorphology of the area (regional and local bathymetry and topography, including rivers, marshes, and...at risk from coastal hazards including storm surge inundation, precipitation driven flooding, waves, and coastal erosion. This population segment...will likely be exposed to increased risk as impacts of a changing climate are felt through elevated sea levels and potentially increased storm

  15. The Evaluation of Climate Change Risks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin POPESCU

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, it is acknowledged that climatic changes represent a serious threat for the environment and, so, this problem has been approached at numerous conferences, conventions and summits. The climate is strongly influenced by the changes in the atmospheric concentrations of certain gases that hold the solar radiations on the Earth’s surface (the greenhouse effect. The water vapors and the carbon dioxide (CO2 present in the atmosphere have always generated a natural greenhouse effect, without which the Earth surface would be 33o C lower than it is today. Other greenhouse gases are: methane (CH4, nitrogen protoxide (N2O, and the halogenated compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs. During the last hundred years, man’s activity has led to the increase of the atmospheric concentration of the greenhouse gases and of other pollutants, its consequence being the increase of the average global temperature. Although it has not been calculated exactly how much of this warming can be attributed to the greenhouse gases, there is evidence that human activity contributes to global warming. The main causes leading to the accentuation of the greenhouse effect are the burning of the fossil fuels, deforestations, cement production, waste disposal, refrigeration etc. The climatic changes triggered by the greenhouse gases will have consequences that have already made themselves visible, causing: the increase of the sea level and the possible flooding of the low areas; the melting of the icecap; the modification of the precipitations regime, with consequences like the increase of the floods and droughts frequency; changes in the occurrence of climatic extremes, especially in the occurrence of the high, extreme temperatures. All these will have a direct impact on ecosystems, health, some key economic sectors such as agriculture and on water resources.

  16. Risk communication: Anthropogenically induced climatic changes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Frankenberg, P.

    1991-01-01

    In order to reduce the risk of the greenhouse effect, conventional thermal power plants should be substituted by maximum energy conservation, use of renewable energies, and low-risk, high-tech nuclear power plants. Motor traffic exhausts could be eliminated by alternative fuels, and trace gas reducers, such as tropical rain forests, preserved by financial adjustments. CFC's are to be reduced in any case in order to lower the ozone risk. (DG) [de

  17. The Climate-Agriculture-Modeling and Decision Tool (CAMDT) for Climate Risk Management in Agriculture

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ines, A. V. M.; Han, E.; Baethgen, W.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) during the past decades have brought great potential to improve agricultural climate risk managements associated with inter-annual climate variability. In spite of popular uses of crop simulation models in addressing climate risk problems, the models cannot readily take seasonal climate predictions issued in the format of tercile probabilities of most likely rainfall categories (i.e, below-, near- and above-normal). When a skillful SCF is linked with the crop simulation models, the informative climate information can be further translated into actionable agronomic terms and thus better support strategic and tactical decisions. In other words, crop modeling connected with a given SCF allows to simulate "what-if" scenarios with different crop choices or management practices and better inform the decision makers. In this paper, we present a decision support tool, called CAMDT (Climate Agriculture Modeling and Decision Tool), which seamlessly integrates probabilistic SCFs to DSSAT-CSM-Rice model to guide decision-makers in adopting appropriate crop and agricultural water management practices for given climatic conditions. The CAMDT has a functionality to disaggregate a probabilistic SCF into daily weather realizations (either a parametric or non-parametric disaggregation method) and to run DSSAT-CSM-Rice with the disaggregated weather realizations. The convenient graphical user-interface allows easy implementation of several "what-if" scenarios for non-technical users and visualize the results of the scenario runs. In addition, the CAMDT also translates crop model outputs to economic terms once the user provides expected crop price and cost. The CAMDT is a practical tool for real-world applications, specifically for agricultural climate risk management in the Bicol region, Philippines, having a great flexibility for being adapted to other crops or regions in the world. CAMDT GitHub: https://github.com/Agro-Climate/CAMDT

  18. Anthropogenic climate change affects meteorological drought risk in Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gudmundsson, L; Seneviratne, S I

    2016-01-01

    Drought constitutes a significant natural hazard in Europe, impacting societies and ecosystems across the continent. Climate model simulations with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations project increased drought risk in southern Europe, and on the other hand decreased drought risk in the north. Observed changes in water balance components and drought indicators resemble the projected pattern. However, assessments of possible causes of the reported regional changes have so far been inconclusive. Here we investigate whether anthropogenic emissions have altered past and present meteorological (precipitation) drought risk. For doing so we first estimate the magnitude of 20 year return period drought years that would occur without anthropogenic effects on the climate. Subsequently we quantify to which degree the occurrence probability, i.e. the risk, of these years has changed if anthropogenic climate change is accounted for. Both an observational and a climate model-based assessment suggest that it is >95% likely that human emissions have increased the probability of drought years in the Mediterranean, whereas it is >95% likely that the probability of dry years has decreased in northern Europe. In central Europe the evidence is inconclusive. The results highlight that anthropogenic climate change has already increased drought risk in southern Europe, stressing the need to develop efficient mitigation measures. (letter)

  19. Can Knowledge Deficit Explain Societal Perception of Climate Change Risk?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitra, R.; McNeal, K.; Bondell, H.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change literacy efforts have had a rough journey in the past decade. Although scientists have become increasingly convinced about anthropological climate change, change in public opinion has been underwhelming. The unexplained gap between scientific consensus and public opinion has made this topic an important research area in the realm of public understanding of science. Recent research on climate change risk perception (CCRP) has advanced an intriguing hypothesis, namely, cultural cognition thesis (CCT), which posits that the public has adequate knowledge to understand climate change science but people tend to use this knowledge solely to promote their culturally motivated view-point of climate change. This talk provides evidence to demonstrate that despite culture playing a significant role in influencing CCRP, knowledge deficiency remains a persistent problem in our society and contributes to the aforementioned gap. However, such deficits can remain undiagnosed due to limitations of survey design.

  20. Climate change, global risks, challenges and decisions. Synthesis report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Richardson, K.; Steffen, W.; Schellnhuber, H.J.

    2009-03-01

    The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting to be held in Copenhagen in December 2009 (the 15th Conference of the Parties, COP-15) will be a critical step in developing a global response to the threat of climate change caused by human activities. The primary scientific input to those negotiations is the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), published in 2007. The IPCC report has already been instrumental in increasing both public and political awareness of the societal risks associated with unchecked emission of greenhouse gases. Since the production of the IPCC report, new knowledge has emerged that furthers understanding of the impacts of human influence on the climate and the response options and approaches that are available to tackle this complex issue. To bring this new knowledge together, the International Alliance of Research Universities organised an international scientific congress on climate change, Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, which was held in Copenhagen from 10-12 March 2009. Participants came from nearly 80 different countries and contributed with more than 1400 scientific presentations. Abstracts for all of the scientific presentations made can be found at www.iop.org/EJ/volume/1755-1315/6, and a transcript of the closing plenary session can be found at environmentalresearchweb.org/cws/article/opinion/39126. This synthesis report presents an up-to-date overview of a broad range of research relevant to climate change - including fundamental climate science, the impacts of a changing climate on society and environment, and the many tools and approaches available to deal effectively with the challenge of climate change. (LN)

  1. Co-exploratory climate risk workshops: Experiences from urban Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Steynor

    2016-01-01

    The paper describes the context for a place-based co-exploratory analysis of climate risks, the elements and steps incorporated in the approach, reflections on the effectiveness of this approach in addressing multi-stressor, place-based decision-making and the challenges that still remain in further refining the approach. The co-exploration approach is complementary to the objectives of the Global Framework for Climate Services and provides lessons for uptake of climate information into urban adaptation planning in Africa.

  2. Climate Risk in Southern and Eastern Africa's Hydropower Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalin, C.; Conway, D.; Landman, W.; Osborn, T.

    2016-12-01

    Hydropower comprises a major proportion of electricity production in southern and eastern Africa and is undergoing rapid expansion. Hydropower production in both regions is exposed to high levels of climate variability and regional linkages are strong, yet an understanding of aggregate climate risk is lacking. Here we map regions of coherent precipitation variability with current and planned (2030) hydropower sites, river basin configuration and regional energy grids to assess aggregate exposure to hydropower supply disruption. If fully implemented hydropower will be increasingly concentrated in the Nile basin in eastern Africa and the Zambezi basin in southern Africa. Regions of similar rainfall variability show close alignment with the main sites of hydropower. Future concentration of hydropower will greatly increase the concurrent risk of climate related electricity supply disruption. Nascent electricity sharing mechanisms could mitigate risk but face considerable political and infrastructural challenges.

  3. Climate change risk to forests in China associated with warming.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yunhe; Ma, Danyang; Wu, Shaohong

    2018-01-11

    Variations in forest net primary productivity (NPP) reflects the combined effects of key climate variables on ecosystem structure and function, especially on the carbon cycle. We performed risk analysis indicated by the magnitude of future negative anomalies in NPP in comparison with the natural interannual variability to investigate the impact of future climatic projections on forests in China. Results from the multi-model ensemble showed that climate change risk of decreases in forest NPP would be more significant in higher emission scenario in China. Under relatively low emission scenarios, the total area of risk was predicted to decline, while for RCP8.5, it was predicted to first decrease and then increase after the middle of 21st century. The rapid temperature increases predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario would be probably unfavorable for forest vegetation growth in the long term. High-level risk area was likely to increase except RCP2.6. The percentage area at high risk was predicted to increase from 5.39% (2021-2050) to 27.62% (2071-2099) under RCP8.5. Climate change risk to forests was mostly concentrated in southern subtropical and tropical regions, generally significant under high emission scenario of RCP8.5, which was mainly attributed to the intensified dryness in south China.

  4. Climate Change or Nuclear Power - Which Risk do we Prefer?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bruce, Donald

    2006-01-01

    Climate change and nuclear power provide two of the biggest technological risks of our times. Both involve widespread risks, long-term wastes and inter-generational equity, but in rather different ways. If it came to a choice, which is the worse set of risks to run? Serious doubts have been raised whether the implementation of renewable energies and energy saving are able in practice to deliver quickly enough the radical reductions of CO 2 emissions that are needed to tackle climate change. Some countries may face a dilemma - to continue another generation of nuclear power or to accept that its CO 2 emissions will rise when current nuclear stations finish their time? This paper compares the risks, and explores the ethical issues around which a society would have to weigh up such a choice, the role of the precautionary principle, and the place of expert and lay evaluations of risk (full text of contribution)

  5. Endogenous Risks and Learning in Climate Change Decision Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, B.C.; Ermoliev, Y.; Ermolieva, T.

    2005-01-01

    We analyze the effects of risks and learning on climate change decisions. A two-stage, dynamic, climate change stabilization problem is formulated. The explicit incorporation of ex-post learning induces risk aversion among ex-ante decisions, which is characterized in linear models by VaR- (Value at Risk) and CVaR-type risk (Conditional Value at Risk) measures. Combined with explicit introduction of 'safety' constraints, it creates a 'hit-or-miss' type decision making situation and shows that, even in linear models, learning may lead to either less or more restrictive ex-ante emission reductions. We analyze stylized elements of the model in order to identify the key factors driving outcomes, in particular, the critical role of quantiles of probability distributions characterizing key uncertainties

  6. Model based climate information on drought risk in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calmanti, S.; Syroka, J.; Jones, C.; Carfagna, F.; Dell'Aquila, A.; Hoefsloot, P.; Kaffaf, S.; Nikulin, G.

    2012-04-01

    The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) has embarked upon the endeavor of creating a sustainable Africa-wide natural disaster risk management system. A fundamental building block of this initiative is the setup of a drought impact modeling platform called Africa Risk-View that aims to quantify and monitor weather-related food security risk in Africa. The modeling approach is based the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), as the fundamental indicator of the performances of agriculture and uses historical records of food assistance operation to project future potential needs for livelihood protection. By using climate change scenarios as an input to Africa Risk-View it is possible, in principles, to evaluate the future impact of climate variability on critical issues such as food security and the overall performance of the envisaged risk management system. A necessary preliminary step to this challenging task is the exploration of the sources of uncertainties affecting the assessment based on modeled climate change scenarios. For this purpose, a limited set of climate models have been selected in order verify the relevance of using climate model output data with Africa Risk-View and to explore a minimal range of possible sources of uncertainty. This first evaluation exercise started before the setup of the CORDEX framework and has relied on model output available at the time. In particular only one regional downscaling was available for the entire African continent from the ENSEMBLES project. The analysis shows that current coarse resolution global climate models can not directly feed into the Africa RiskView risk-analysis tool. However, regional downscaling may help correcting the inherent biases observed in the datasets. Further analysis is performed by using the first data available under the CORDEX framework. In particular, we consider a set of simulation driven with boundary conditions from the reanalysis ERA-Interim to evaluate the skill drought

  7. Risk assessment of climate systems for national security.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick; Brown, Theresa Jean; Cai, Ximing; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton; Constantine, Paul G; Dalbey, Keith R.; Debusschere, Bert J.; Fields, Richard; Hart, David Blaine; Kalinina, Elena Arkadievna; Kerstein, Alan R.; Levy, Michael; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Najm, Habib N.; Overfelt, James Robert; Parks, Mancel Jordan; Peplinski, William J.; Safta, Cosmin; Sargsyan, Khachik; Stubblefield, William Anthony; Taylor, Mark A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Trucano, Timothy Guy; Villa, Daniel L.

    2012-10-01

    Climate change, through drought, flooding, storms, heat waves, and melting Arctic ice, affects the production and flow of resource within and among geographical regions. The interactions among governments, populations, and sectors of the economy require integrated assessment based on risk, through uncertainty quantification (UQ). This project evaluated the capabilities with Sandia National Laboratories to perform such integrated analyses, as they relate to (inter)national security. The combining of the UQ results from climate models with hydrological and economic/infrastructure impact modeling appears to offer the best capability for national security risk assessments.

  8. Public Perception of Climate Risk: The Case of Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voskaki, Asimina; Tsermenidis, Konstantinos

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is generally considered as one of the greatest challenges our world is facing. In the case of Greece climatic change seems to be associated with sea level rise, increase in temperature, variation in precipitation patterns, and extreme weather events. As a result of climate pattern changes a series of consequences are expected in areas involving build environment, infrastructures, health and various sectors of the economy. Even though climate change is probably going to affect Greece in terms of human welfare and economic growth, public perception and attitude do not always identify it as the most important, amongst others, environmental area of concern, or compared to various socio-economic issues. Considering that topics related to climate change involve a certain degree of uncertainty public perception seems to be important when dealing with adaptation strategies to manage or prevent risks from climate change impact and therefore people's reaction to risks seem to be an issue of great importance in future policy planning and implementation. The key issue of this paper is to investigate and analyse public perception in Greece as regards to climate change risk. Through a questionnaire survey this research investigates people's understanding, specific knowledge, opinion, awareness, emotions, behavior with regards to climate change risks and their willingness to pay in order to minimize or prevent risk. In addition, it examines people's willingness to alter current lifestyle and adapt to a changing climate. The information derived from survey data concern the topics and the perceived importance of the causes of the climate change between certain groups of people; the analysis of the data is focused on the correlation between perceived risk and knowledge about the issues involved. Rather than applying a specific technique extensively, we choose to deploy a number of methodologies with which we are able to draw different aspects from the data. To this

  9. Experimental climate information services in support of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Davidson, M. A.; Shea, E. E.; Nierenberg, C.; Dole, R. M.

    2009-12-01

    Climate variability and change impact national and local economies and environments. Developing and communicating climate and climate impacts information to inform decision making requires an understanding of context, societal objectives, and identification of factors important to the management of risk. Information sensitive to changing baselines or extremes is a critical emergent need. Meeting this need requires timely production and delivery of useful climate data, information and knowledge within familiar pathways. We identify key attributes for a climate service , and the network and infrastructure to develop and coordinate the resulting services based on lessons learned in experimental implementations of climate services. "Service-type" activities already exist in many settings within federal, state, academic, and private sectors. The challenge for a climate service is to find effective implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting user needs). These strategies include upfront infrastructure investments, learning from event to event, coordinated innovation and diffusion, and highlighting common adaptation interests. Common to these strategies is the production of reliable and accessible data, analyses of emergent conditions and needs, and deliberative processes to identify appropriate entry points and uses for improved knowledge. Experimental climate services show that the development of well-structured paths among observations, projections, risk assessments and usable information requires sustained participation in “knowledge management systems” for early warning across temporal and spatial scales. Central to these systems is a collaborative framework between research and management to ensure anticipatory coordination between decision makers and information providers, allowing for emerging research findings and their attendant uncertainties to be considered. Early warnings in this context are not simply forecasts or

  10. Effects of climate variability on global scale flood risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, P.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kummu, M.; Jongman, B.; Sperna Weiland, F.; Winsemius, H.

    2013-12-01

    In this contribution we demonstrate the influence of climate variability on flood risk. Globally, flooding is one of the worst natural hazards in terms of economic damages; Munich Re estimates global losses in the last decade to be in excess of $240 billion. As a result, scientifically sound estimates of flood risk at the largest scales are increasingly needed by industry (including multinational companies and the insurance industry) and policy communities. Several assessments of global scale flood risk under current and conditions have recently become available, and this year has seen the first studies assessing how flood risk may change in the future due to global change. However, the influence of climate variability on flood risk has as yet hardly been studied, despite the fact that: (a) in other fields (drought, hurricane damage, food production) this variability is as important for policy and practice as long term change; and (b) climate variability has a strong influence in peak riverflows around the world. To address this issue, this contribution illustrates the influence of ENSO-driven climate variability on flood risk, at both the globally aggregated scale and the scale of countries and large river basins. Although it exerts significant and widespread influences on flood peak discharges in many parts of the world, we show that ENSO does not have a statistically significant influence on flood risk once aggregated to global totals. At the scale of individual countries, though, strong relationships exist over large parts of the Earth's surface. For example, we find particularly strong anomalies of flood risk in El Niño or La Niña years (compared to all years) in southern Africa, parts of western Africa, Australia, parts of Central Eurasia (especially for El Niño), the western USA (especially for La Niña), and parts of South America. These findings have large implications for both decadal climate-risk projections and long-term future climate change

  11. Learning and Risk Exposure in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, F.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change is a gradual process most apparent over long time-scales and large spatial scales, but it is experienced by those affected as changes in local weather. Climate change will gradually push the weather people experience outside the bounds of historic norms, resulting in unprecedented and extreme weather events. However, people do have the ability to learn about and respond to a changing climate. Therefore, connecting the weather people experience with their perceptions of climate change requires understanding how people infer the current state of the climate given their observations of weather. This learning process constitutes a first-order constraint on the rate of adaptation and is an important determinant of the dynamic adjustment costs associated with climate change. In this paper I explore two learning models that describe how local weather observations are translated into perceptions of climate change: an efficient Bayesian learning model and a simpler rolling-mean heuristic. Both have a period during which the learner's beliefs about the state of the climate are different from its true state, meaning the learner is exposed to a different range of extreme weather outcomes then they are prepared for. Using the example of surface temperature trends, I quantify this additional exposure to extreme heat events under both learning models and both RCP 8.5 and 2.6. Risk exposure increases for both learning models, but by substantially more for the rolling-mean learner. Moreover, there is an interaction between the learning model and the rate of climate change: the inefficient rolling-mean learner benefits much more from the slower rates of change under RCP 2.6 then the Bayesian. Finally, I present results from an experiment that suggests people are able to learn about a trending climate in a manner consistent with the Bayesian model.

  12. Wildfire communication and climate risk mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robyn S. Wilson; Sarah M. McCaffrey; Eric. Toman

    2017-01-01

    Throughout the late 19th century and most of the 20th century, risks associated with wildfire were addressed by suppressing fires as quickly as possible. However, by the 1960s, it became clear that fire exclusion policies were having adverse effects on ecological health, as well as contributing to larger and more damaging wildfires over time. Although federal fire...

  13. Climate change and drought risks for agriculture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verhagen, J.; Put, M.; Zaal, F.; Keulen, van H.

    2004-01-01

    Changes in rainfall patterns and risk of crop failure are discussed in this chapter. Agriculture is by far the most important economic activity in the region. The success of this economic activity relies heavily on water availability during the growing season. For rainfed production systems timing

  14. Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heyder, Ursula; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang, E-mail: Ursula.Heyder@pik-potsdam.de, E-mail: Sibyll.Schaphoff@pik-potsdam.de [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A62, 14473 Potsdam (Germany)

    2011-07-15

    The functioning of many ecosystems and their associated resilience could become severely compromised by climate change over the 21st century. We present a global risk analysis of terrestrial ecosystem changes based on an aggregate metric of joint changes in macroscopic ecosystem features including vegetation structure as well as carbon and water fluxes and stores. We apply this metric to global ecosystem simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL) under 58 WCRP CMIP3 climate change projections. Given the current knowledge of ecosystem processes and projected climate change patterns, we find that severe ecosystem changes cannot be excluded on any continent. They are likely to occur (in > 90% of the climate projections) in the boreal-temperate ecotone where heat and drought stress might lead to large-scale forest die-back, along boreal and mountainous tree lines where the temperature limitation will be alleviated, and in water-limited ecosystems where elevated atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentration will lead to increased water use efficiency of photosynthesis. Considerable ecosystem changes can be expected above 3 K local temperature change in cold and tropical climates and above 4 K in the temperate zone. Sensitivity to temperature change increases with decreasing precipitation in tropical and temperate ecosystems. In summary, there is a risk of substantial restructuring of the global land biosphere on current trajectories of climate change.

  15. Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Heyder, Ursula; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Gerten, Dieter; Lucht, Wolfgang

    2011-01-01

    The functioning of many ecosystems and their associated resilience could become severely compromised by climate change over the 21st century. We present a global risk analysis of terrestrial ecosystem changes based on an aggregate metric of joint changes in macroscopic ecosystem features including vegetation structure as well as carbon and water fluxes and stores. We apply this metric to global ecosystem simulations with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJmL) under 58 WCRP CMIP3 climate change projections. Given the current knowledge of ecosystem processes and projected climate change patterns, we find that severe ecosystem changes cannot be excluded on any continent. They are likely to occur (in > 90% of the climate projections) in the boreal-temperate ecotone where heat and drought stress might lead to large-scale forest die-back, along boreal and mountainous tree lines where the temperature limitation will be alleviated, and in water-limited ecosystems where elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration will lead to increased water use efficiency of photosynthesis. Considerable ecosystem changes can be expected above 3 K local temperature change in cold and tropical climates and above 4 K in the temperate zone. Sensitivity to temperature change increases with decreasing precipitation in tropical and temperate ecosystems. In summary, there is a risk of substantial restructuring of the global land biosphere on current trajectories of climate change.

  16. Climate Change and Risk Management Challenges in the Arctic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jakobsen, Uffe

    Climate change or global warming results in melting ice in the Arctic, both inland and sea ice. This opens up opportunities of natural ressource extraction and possibilities of new shipping routes, that opens up opportunities for increased maritime activities. However, with these opportunies come...... also the challenges of increased maritime activities that result in several risks in the Arctic such as the risk of pollution and the risks of accidents, which produce a need for preparedness towards oil spill and towards search and rescue (SAR) and institutions for SAR. Since the Arctic is such a huge...... possibilies of transborder risk management and partnership building....

  17. The American Climate Prospectus: a risk-centered analysis of the economic impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jina, A.; Houser, T.; Hsiang, S. M.; Kopp, R. E., III; Delgado, M.; Larsen, K.; Mohan, S.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Wilson, P. S.; Muir-Wood, R.

    2014-12-01

    The American Climate Prospectus (ACP), the analysis underlying the Risky Business project, quantitatively assessed the climate risks posed to the United States' economy in six sectors - crop yields, energy demand, coastal property, crime, labor productivity, and mortality [1]. The ACP is unique in its characterization of the full probability distribution of economic impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century, making it an extremely useful basis for risk assessments. Three key innovations allow for this characterization. First, climate projections from CMIP5 models are scaled to a temperature probability distribution derived from a coarser climate model (MAGICC). This allows a more accurate representation of the whole distribution of future climates (in particular the tails) than a simple ensemble average. These are downscaled both temporally and spatially. Second, a set of local sea level rise and tropical cyclone projections are used in conjunction with the most detailed dataset of coastal property in the US in order to capture the risks of rising seas and storm surge. Third, we base many of our sectors on empirically-derived responses to temperature and precipitation. Each of these dose-response functions is resampled many times to populate a statistical distribution. Combining these with uncertainty in emissions scenario, climate model, and weather, we create the full probability distribution of climate impacts from county up to national levels, as well as model the effects upon the economy as a whole. Results are presented as likelihood ranges, as well as changes to return intervals of extreme events. The ACP analysis allows us to compare between sectors to understand the magnitude of required policy responses, and also to identify risks through time. Many sectors displaying large impacts at the end of the century, like those of mortality, have smaller changes in the near-term, due to non-linearities in the response functions. Other sectors, like

  18. Effects of Educational Attainment on Climate Risk Vulnerability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erich Striessnig

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available In the context of still uncertain specific effects of climate change in specific locations, this paper examines whether education significantly increases coping capacity with regard to particular climatic changes, and whether it improves the resilience of people to climate risks in general. Our hypothesis is that investment in universal primary and secondary education around the world is the most effective strategy for preparing to cope with the still uncertain dangers associated with future climate. The empirical evidence presented for a cross-country time series of factors associated with past natural disaster fatalities since 1980 in 125 countries confirms this overriding importance of education in reducing impacts. We also present new projections of populations by age, sex, and level of educational attainment to 2050, thus providing an appropriate tool for anticipating societies' future adaptive capacities based on alternative education scenarios associated with different policies.

  19. Moderating Climate Hazard Risk through Cooperation in Asian Drylands

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Troy Sternberg

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Asia drylands face increasing climate hazard risk, changing socio-economic forces, and environmental challenges that affect community viability. As home to >1 billion residents, deserts are at the centre of the continent’s climate-human predicament. Extreme water scarcity, dependence on food imports and now conflict increase hazard exposure across shared drylands, yet management differs from state to state. This paper argues that a more coherent strategy for mitigating risk would be based on natural environments. Linking hazards with livelihoods and social stability identifies how recent drought events disrupted ecosystems and societies. This results in borders rather than geography defining risk and response. Developing a dryland perspective across the continent can be an effective approach to reduce hazard risk and improve cooperation across Asia’s extensive arid lands.

  20. Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities; Evenements climatiques extremes: reduire les vulnerabilites des systemes ecologiques et sociaux

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

    2010-07-01

    The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken

  1. American archives and climate change: Risks and adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Mazurczyk

    Full Text Available Climate change directly affects the future security of cultural resources. Cultural heritage and in particular, archives, are increasingly at risk of degradation due to climate change threats and triggers. This study evaluated present and future consequences of water-related climate change impacts using a mapping methodology to assess exposure of American archives to incompatible weather extremes. Susceptibility to climate change threats like sea level rise, storm surge, surface water flooding, and humidity, all influenced by a combination of temperature rise and increased precipitation, at a worst-case scenario were assessed for 1232 archival repositories. Results indicate that approximately 98.8% of archives are likely to be affected by at least one climate risk factor, though on average, most archives are at low risk of exposure (90% when risk factors are combined. Future storm surge plus sea level rise was likely to impact 17.7% of archival repositories with 22.1% affected by only storm surge and 4.3% affected by only sea level rise (1.8-m scenario. Fewer archives were likely to be susceptible to surface water flooding (2.4%. More than 90% of archives were estimated to have a temperature change greater than ±1 °C, with 7.5% of sites likely to change by ±10 °C, and 69.5% of archives were likely to receive at least 152 mm more rainfall by 2100 over current annual averages. In terms of sustainability, developing appropriate socio-economic planning schemes that integrate cumulative exposure of archives to future climate patterns is critically important for safeguarding society and its heritage. The outcomes from the risk assessment in this study aid in the decision-making process by promoting strategic adaptation protocols and providing administrators a way to prioritize archival management goals based on the expected severity of future climate change impacts. Keywords: Archives, Climate change, Sea level rise, Storm surge, Cultural

  2. Balancing the risks: Choosing climate alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Payne, C R

    2009-01-01

    Very aggressive reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are needed over the next ten years to avoid a 'planet on fire'. Current sub-national, national and international policy assumes that carbon sequestration, biofuels, nuclear power, ocean fertilization, atmospheric aerosols, and other such technologies, which heretofore have been considered too novel or too dangerous to use, will have to be deployed at large scale, globally. Moving forward with promising technologies that might preserve us from the consequences of global warming will be difficult because they also pose potential hazards, promise uncertain benefits, and in some cases are already burdened with restrictive legislation and poor public image. The lack of a rational process of risk assessment and public decision making is likely to lead to a poor long-term outcome. Moreover, the standard administrative and political processes used to assess such risks can take years, time that we do not have. Principled and practical policymaking demand citizens participate in the decision to develop and use these novel technologies. Environmental assessment, horizon scanning, and new research on human and organizational factors suggest techniques to improve technology development decisions.

  3. Public perception of climate risk and adaptation in the UK: A review of the literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L. Taylor

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Like other countries, the United Kingdom faces the unavoidable challenge of adapting to a changing climate. However, public perceptions of the risk posed by climate change and support for adaptation policies vary between countries. This article provides a UK-specific review of climate change beliefs, risk perceptions regarding potential climate change impacts, and attitudes towards climate change adaptation. We report on differences between expert and public conceptualisations of climate change risks. We also examine the effects of psychological distancing, climate change awareness, and hazard experience on both concerns about climate change and perceptions of the weather-related risks posed by climate change. Additionally, we review the effects of emotion, agency, perceived responsibility, place attachment, personal values and uncertainty on the willingness of UK residents to support and engage with climate change adaptation. We outline the implications of these factors for climate risk communication and highlight key areas for future research.

  4. The case study of climate change : the nature of risk and the risk of nature

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Good, J. [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United States). Dept. of Communication

    2000-06-01

    The science of climate change is complex, large-scale and uncertain. The challenges of communicating the risks of climate change were described with particular emphasis on working with communities to explain climate change with its complex, scientific and social realities. The greenhouse effect is a feature of the earth in which a carbon dioxide blanket absorbs the sun's heat as it radiates off the earth. The paper stated that the greenhouse effect is arguably the best accepted theory in climatology, but the question is whether the huge increase in carbon dioxide that the industrial revolution has brought forth has increased the efficiency of this blanket and set the earth on a warming trend. The ultimate question is whether the earth is warming in response to human activity. It could be claimed that apart from the risk of nuclear war, the risk of climate change is the largest scale risk facing today's society. Climate change pits the burning of fossil fuels against the climate and as a modern day risk, climate change is far removed from the historic roots of environmental risks. The paper argued, that in a world based on burning fossil fuels and where those who are involved with the supply of fossil fuels hold tremendous influence, it is difficult to accept that the burning might have to stop. This paper explored how and what people currently learn about the environment and climate change through the media. A three-step communication strategy based in the United States was then proposed. The first step is aimed at journalists with focus on improved accuracy of climate change information. The second step focuses on urban centres and has as its guiding concepts self-efficacy, reasoned action and the importance of reaching people in diverse communities. The final step is aimed at political leaders, beginning with municipalities, and relies on campaigns for alternative energy.

  5. Climate Change Risk Appraisal in the Austrian Ski Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wolfsegger, C.

    2009-04-01

    Ski tourism is an economically and culturally important industry in many parts of Europe. A growing number of studies in Europe, North America, Japan, and Australia have concluded that climate change has potentially serious implications for the sustainability of ski operations by reducing the average length of ski seasons and, where applicable, increasing snowmaking costs. To date, however, the climate change risk awareness and adaptive responses of stakeholders in the ski industry have not been examined. A survey of managers at low elevation ski areas in Austria was undertaken to explore their perceptions of climate change (past and future), how climate change had/will affect their operations, and their adaptive responses (past and planned). The results indicate that climate change is not perceived to be a serious threat to ski operations and that with technological adaptation, principally snowmaking, ski area managers believe they will be able to effectively cope with climate change in the 21st century. The consequences of these perceptions for the future operation of these ski areas are discussed and conclusions drawn for the future of ski tourism in Austria.

  6. Framing risk and uncertainty in social science articles on climate change, 1995–2012

    OpenAIRE

    Shaw, Chris; Hellsten, Iina; Nerlich, Brigitte

    2016-01-01

    The issue of climate change is intimately linked to notions of risk and uncertainty, concepts that pose challenges to climate science, climate change communication, and science-society interactions. While a large majority of climate scientists are increasingly certain about the causes of climate change and the risks posed by its impacts (see IPCC, 2013 and 2014), public perception of climate change is still largely framed by uncertainty, especially regarding impacts (Poortinga et al., 2011). ...

  7. Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Haas

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

  8. Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haas, A.; Jaeger, C.

    2005-08-01

    When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.

  9. Consequence of climate mitigation on the risk of hunger.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasegawa, Tomoko; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Shin, Yonghee; Tanaka, Akemi; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Masui, Toshihiko

    2015-06-16

    Climate change and mitigation measures have three major impacts on food consumption and the risk of hunger: (1) changes in crop yields caused by climate change; (2) competition for land between food crops and energy crops driven by the use of bioenergy; and (3) costs associated with mitigation measures taken to meet an emissions reduction target that keeps the global average temperature increase to 2 °C. In this study, we combined a global computable general equilibrium model and a crop model (M-GAEZ), and we quantified the three impacts on risk of hunger through 2050 based on the uncertainty range associated with 12 climate models and one economic and demographic scenario. The strong mitigation measures aimed at attaining the 2 °C target reduce the negative effects of climate change on yields but have large negative impacts on the risk of hunger due to mitigation costs in the low-income countries. We also found that in a strongly carbon-constrained world, the change in food consumption resulting from mitigation measures depends more strongly on the change in incomes than the change in food prices.

  10. Climate Change, Risk and Grain Production in China

    OpenAIRE

    Holst, Rainer; Yu, Xiaohua; Grun, Carola

    2010-01-01

    This paper employs the production function-based method proposed by Just and Pope (1978, 1979) to explicitly analyze production risk in the context of Chinese grain farming and climate change, and test for potential endogeneity of climate factors in Chinese grain production. Our results indicate that grain production in south China might, at least in the short run, could be a net beneficiary of global warming. In particular, we find that a 1 °C increase in annual average temperature in South ...

  11. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  12. Ecological risk assessment in the context of global climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landis, Wayne G; Durda, Judi L; Brooks, Marjorie L; Chapman, Peter M; Menzie, Charles A; Stahl, Ralph G; Stauber, Jennifer L

    2013-01-01

    Changes to sources, stressors, habitats, and geographic ranges; toxicological effects; end points; and uncertainty estimation require significant changes in the implementation of ecological risk assessment (ERA). Because of the lack of analog systems and circumstances in historically studied sites, there is a likelihood of type III error. As a first step, the authors propose a decision key to aid managers and risk assessors in determining when and to what extent climate change should be incorporated. Next, when global climate change is an important factor, the authors recommend seven critical changes to ERA. First, develop conceptual cause-effect diagrams that consider relevant management decisions as well as appropriate spatial and temporal scales to include both direct and indirect effects of climate change and the stressor of management interest. Second, develop assessment end points that are expressed as ecosystem services. Third, evaluate multiple stressors and nonlinear responses-include the chemicals and the stressors related to climate change. Fourth, estimate how climate change will affect or modify management options as the impacts become manifest. Fifth, consider the direction and rate of change relative to management objectives, recognizing that both positive and negative outcomes can occur. Sixth, determine the major drivers of uncertainty, estimating and bounding stochastic uncertainty spatially, temporally, and progressively. Seventh, plan for adaptive management to account for changing environmental conditions and consequent changes to ecosystem services. Good communication is essential for making risk-related information understandable and useful for managers and stakeholders to implement a successful risk-assessment and decision-making process. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

  13. Framing risk and uncertainty in social science articles on climate change, 1995-2012

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shaw, C.; Hellsten, I.; Nerlich, B.; Crichton, J.; Candlin, C.N.; Firkins, A.S.

    2016-01-01

    The issue of climate change is intimately linked to notions of risk and uncertainty, concepts that pose challenges to climate science, climate change communication, and science-society interactions. While a large majority of climate scientists are increasingly certain about the causes of climate

  14. Changes in the Perceived Risk of Climate Change: Evidence from Sudden Climatic Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

    2009-12-01

    In the course of the past two decades the threat of anthropogenic climate change has moved from a scientific concern of relative obscurity to become one of the largest environmental and public goods problems in history. During this period public understanding of the risk of climate change has shifted from negligible to quite large. In this paper I propose a means of quantifying this change by examining how sudden events supporting the theory of anthropogenic climate change have affected carbon intensive companies' stock prices. Using CAPM event study methodology for companies in several carbon-intensive industries, I find strong evidence that markets have been reacting to changes in the scientific evidence for climate change for some time. Specifically, the change in magnitude of response over time seems to indicate that investors believed climate change was a potentially serious risk to corporate profits as early as the mid 1990s. Moreover, market reaction dependence on event type indicates that investors are differentiating between different advances in the scientific knowledge. Announcements by NASA GISS that the previous year was a “record hot year” for the globe are associated with negative excess returns, while news of ice shelf collapses are associated with strong positive excess returns. These results imply that investors are aware of how different aspects of climate change will affect carbon intensive companies, specifically in terms of the link between warming in general and polar ice cover. This implies that policy choices based on observable public opinion have lagged actual private concern over climate change's potential threat.

  15. Characterising agrometeorological climate risks and uncertainties: Crop production in Uganda

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mubiru, Drake N.; Komutunga, Everline; Agona, Ambrose

    2012-01-01

    , the number of rainy days during this critical period of crop growth is decreasing, which possibly means that crops grown in this season are prone to climatic risks and therefore in need of appropriate adaptation measures. A time-series analysis of the maximum daily temperature clearly revealed an increase......Uganda is vulnerable to climate change as most of its agriculture is rain-fed; agriculture is also the backbone of the economy, and the livelihoods of many people depend upon it. Variability in rainfall may be reflected in the productivity of agricultural systems and pronounced variability may...... in temperature, with the lower limits of the ranges of daily maximums increasing faster than the upper limits. Finally, this study has generated information on seasonal rainfall characteristics that will be vital in exploiting the possibilities offered by climatic variability and also offers opportunities...

  16. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

    2016-04-01

    Engineers and water managers have always incorporated uncertainty in water resources operations, design and planning. In recent years, concern has been growing concern that many of the fundamental principles to address uncertainty in planning and design are insufficient for coping with unprecedented shifts in climate, especially given the long lifetimes of water investments - spanning decades, even centuries. Can we design and operate new flood risk management, energy, water supply and sanitation, and agricultural projects that are robust to shifts over 20, 50, or more years? Since about 2009, better approaches to planning and designing under climate uncertainty have been gaining ground worldwide. The main challenge is to operationalize these approaches and bring them from science to practice, embed them within the existing decision-making processes of particular institutions, and shift from highly specialized "boutique" applications to methods that result in consistent, replicable outcomes accessible to water managers worldwide. With CRIDA a serious step is taken to achieve these goals. CRIDA is built on two innovative but complementary approaches that have developed in isolation across the Atlantic over the past seven years: diagnosing and assessing risk (decision scaling), and developing sequential decision steps to compensate for uncertainty within regulatory / performance standards (adaptation pathways). First, the decision scaling or "bottom up" framework to climate change adaptation was first conceptualized during the US/Canada Great Lakes regulation study and has recently been placed in a decision-making context for water-related investments published by the World Bank Second, the adaptation pathways approach was developed in the Netherlands to cope with the level of climate uncertainty we now face. Adaptation pathways is a tool for maintaining options and flexibility while meeting operational goals by envisioning how sequences of decisions can be navigated

  17. Fisheries and Oceans Canada climate change risk assessment initiative

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dalpe, R. [Fisheries and Oceans, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

    2005-07-01

    This paper provided an overview of an initiative undertaken by the Department of Fisheries and Oceans (DFO) Canada to assess the risks associated with climate change on Canada's waterways and aquatic resources over the next 10 to 20 years. It discussed the risk associated with changes in water temperature and level in increasing the vulnerability of fish stocks and ecosystems. A decrease in water levels is also an issue as it will render current infrastructure ineffective. Storm surges can also have an impact on coastal community infrastructure. The purpose of the assessment was to provide DFO management with a structured understanding of the major climate change factors that pose risks to DFO's operations and to establish priorities in identifying appropriate risk mitigation responses. The presentation discussed the different stages of the initiative (planning, identification and evaluation of risk, validation, and reporting), its' challenges and benefits, as well as lessons learned from this exercises. Lessons learned from the project are as follows: get senior level buy-in from the outset; engage the right people; make it easy for others to be engaged; validate results and risk management response; be ready for surprises; and build in some flexibility to the process. figs.

  18. Climate Change and Risk Management: Challenges for Insurance, Adaptation, and Loss Estimation

    OpenAIRE

    Kousky, Carolyn; Cooke, Roger

    2009-01-01

    Adapting to climate change will not only require responding to the physical effects of global warming, but will also require adapting the way we conceptualize, measure, and manage risks. Climate change is creating new risks, altering the risks we already face, and also, importantly, impacting the interdependencies between these risks. In this paper we focus on three particular phenomena of climate related risks that will require a change in our thinking about risk management: global micro-cor...

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 1.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. Climate change, agricultural insecticide exposure, and risk for freshwater communities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kattwinkel, Mira; Kühne, Jan-Valentin; Foit, Kaarina; Liess, Matthias

    2011-09-01

    Climate change exerts direct effects on ecosystems but has additional indirect effects due to changes in agricultural practice. These include the increased use of pesticides, changes in the areas that are cultivated, and changes in the crops cultivated. It is well known that pesticides, and in particular insecticides, affect aquatic ecosystems adversely. To implement effective mitigation measures it is necessary to identify areas that are affected currently and those that will be affected in the future. As a consequence, we predicted potential exposure to insecticide (insecticide runoff potential, RP) under current conditions (1990) and under a model scenario of future climate and land use (2090) using a spatially explicit model on a continental scale, with a focus on Europe. Space-for-time substitution was used to predict future levels of insecticide application, intensity of agricultural land use, and cultivated crops. To assess the indirect effects of climate change, evaluation of the risk of insecticide exposure was based on a trait-based, climate-insensitive indicator system (SPEAR, SPEcies At Risk). To this end, RP and landscape characteristics that are relevant for the recovery of affected populations were combined to estimate the ecological risk (ER) of insecticides for freshwater communities. We predicted a strong increase in the application of, and aquatic exposure to, insecticides under the future scenario, especially in central and northern Europe. This, in turn, will result in a severe increase in ER in these regions. Hence, the proportion of stream sites adjacent to arable land that do not meet the requirements for good ecological status as defined by the EU Water Framework Directive will increase (from 33% to 39% for the EU-25 countries), in particular in the Scandinavian and Baltic countries (from 6% to 19%). Such spatially explicit mapping of risk enables the planning of adaptation and mitigation strategies including vegetated buffer strips and

  1. Risk-analysis of global climate tipping points

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frieler, Katja; Meinshausen, Malte; Braun, N [Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research e.V., Potsdam (Germany). PRIMAP Research Group; and others

    2012-09-15

    There are many elements of the Earth system that are expected to change gradually with increasing global warming. Changes might prove to be reversible after global warming returns to lower levels. But there are others that have the potential of showing a threshold behavior. This means that these changes would imply a transition between qualitatively disparate states which can be triggered by only small shifts in background climate (2). These changes are often expected not to be reversible by returning to the current level of warming. The reason for that is, that many of them are characterized by self-amplifying processes that could lead to a new internally stable state which is qualitatively different from before. There are different elements of the climate system that are already identified as potential tipping elements. This group contains the mass losses of the Greenland and the West-Antarctic Ice Sheet, the decline of the Arctic summer sea ice, different monsoon systems, the degradation of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, the thawing of the permafrost regions as well as the release of methane hydrates (3). Crucially, these tipping elements have regional to global scale effects on human society, biodiversity and/or ecosystem services. Several examples may have a discernable effect on global climate through a large-scale positive feedback. This means they would further amplify the human induced climate change. These tipping elements pose risks comparable to risks found in other fields of human activity: high-impact events that have at least a few percent chance to occur classify as high-risk events. In many of these examples adaptation options are limited and prevention of occurrence may be a more viable strategy. Therefore, a better understanding of the processes driving tipping points is essential. There might be other tipping elements even more critical but not yet identified. These may also lie within our socio-economic systems that are

  2. The effect of education on climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, B. C.; KC, S.; Jiang, L.; Fuchs, R.; Pachauri, S.; Ren, X.; Zhang, T.; Laidlaw, E.

    2017-12-01

    Changes in the demographic and socio-economic compositions of populations are relevant to the climate change issue because these characteristics can be important determinants both of the capacity to adapt to climate change impacts as well as of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, and therefore climate change. However, the incorporation of major trends such as aging, urbanization, and changes in household size into projections of future energy use and emissions is rare. Here we build on our previous work in this area by exploring the implications of future changes in educational attainment for the climate issue. Changes in the educational composition of the population may reduce the vulnerability of the population to climate change impacts, reducing risks. However they may also have effects on energy use and land use, and the resulting greenhouse gas emissions that drive climate change and increase risks. The direction of the effect of education on emissions is itself ambiguous. On the one hand, improvements in education can be expected to lead to faster fertility decline and slower population growth which, all else equal, would be expected to reduce emissions. On the other hand, education can also be expected to lead to faster economic growth, which would tend to increase emissions, and also to changes in consumption patterns. We employ iPETS, an integrated assessment model that includes a multi-region model of the world economy, driven with a new set of country-specific projections of future educational composition, to test the net effect of education on energy use and emissions on four world regions (China, India, Latin America, and Rest of Asia + Middle East) and therefore on climate. We also calculate the Human Development Index (HDI) for each region resulting from these scenarios, as an indicator of vulnerability to climate impacts. We find that the net effect of improved education is to increase emissions in the medium term driven primarily by increased

  3. Engaging farmers on climate risk through targeted integration of bio-economic modelling and seasonal climate forecasts

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nidumolu, U.B.; Lubbers, M.; Kanellopoulos, A.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Kadiyala, D.M.; Sreenivas, G.

    2016-01-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts (SCFs) can be used to identify appropriate risk management strategies and to reduce the sensitivity of rural industries and communities to climate risk. However, these forecasts have low utility among farmers in agricultural decision making, unless translated into a

  4. Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prist, Paula Ribeiro; Uriarte, María; Fernandes, Katia; Metzger, Jean Paul

    2017-07-01

    Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS) is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC). Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%). Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5), and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks obtained here can be

  5. Climate change and sugarcane expansion increase Hantavirus infection risk.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paula Ribeiro Prist

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Hantavirus Cardiopulmonary Syndrome (HCPS is a disease caused by Hantavirus, which is highly virulent for humans. High temperatures and conversion of native vegetation to agriculture, particularly sugarcane cultivation can alter abundance of rodent generalist species that serve as the principal reservoir host for HCPS, but our understanding of the compound effects of land use and climate on HCPS incidence remains limited, particularly in tropical regions. Here we rely on a Bayesian model to fill this research gap and to predict the effects of sugarcane expansion and expected changes in temperature on Hantavirus infection risk in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The sugarcane expansion scenario was based on historical data between 2000 and 2010 combined with an agro-environment zoning guideline for the sugar and ethanol industry. Future evolution of temperature anomalies was derived using 32 general circulation models from scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representative greenhouse gases Concentration Pathways adopted by IPCC. Currently, the state of São Paulo has an average Hantavirus risk of 1.3%, with 6% of the 645 municipalities of the state being classified as high risk (HCPS risk ≥ 5%. Our results indicate that sugarcane expansion alone will increase average HCPS risk to 1.5%, placing 20% more people at HCPS risk. Temperature anomalies alone increase HCPS risk even more (1.6% for RCP4.5 and 1.7%, for RCP8.5, and place 31% and 34% more people at risk. Combined sugarcane and temperature increases led to the same predictions as scenarios that only included temperature. Our results demonstrate that climate change effects are likely to be more severe than those from sugarcane expansion. Forecasting disease is critical for the timely and efficient planning of operational control programs that can address the expected effects of sugarcane expansion and climate change on HCPS infection risk. The predicted spatial location of HCPS infection risks

  6. Accommodating the Challenges of Climate Change Adaptation and Governance in Conventional Risk Management: Adaptive Collaborative Risk Management (ACRM)

    OpenAIRE

    Bradley May; Ryan Plummer

    2011-01-01

    Risk management is a well established tool for climate change adaptation. It is facing new challenges with the end of climate stationarity and the need to meaningfully engage people in governance issues. The ways in which conventional approaches to risk management can respond to these challenges are explored. Conventional approaches to risk management are summarized, the manner in which they are being advanced as a tool for climate change adaptation is described, and emerging themes in risk m...

  7. Integration of industrial risk in regional policy management. Possibilities of evaluation; L'integration du risque industriel dans les politiques de gestion territoriales. Possibilites d'evaluation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hubert, Philippe; Pages, Pierre

    1990-02-01

    Since the responsibility for risk management depends more and more on regional factors, evaluation methods and management regulations are not developed enough. This study start from the fact that an important methods exist for evaluation transport of dangerous materials in cities, risk analysis and emergency plans related to classified installations, management of quality of water, 'chronic' industrial risks at local and regional level, probabilistic estimation for industrial plants. The objective is in fact to show what risk analysis could bring to the municipality, the city or the region. [French] Alors que la responsabilite de la maitrise du risque repose de plus en plus sur les collectivites territoriales, soit dans la mouvance naturelle de la decentralisation, soit par des textes specifiques, les moyens d'evaluation et les regles de gestion sont encore tres peu developpes. Cette etude part du fait qu'un materiel important existe cependant: evaluations sur le transport des matieres dangereuses dans les villes, etudes de danger et plans d'intervention associes a la legislation sur les installations classees, gestion de la qualite de l'eau par les agences de bassin, bilans des risques industriels 'chroniques' a l'echelle locale ou regionale, evaluations probabilistes sur des objets industriels. L'objet est donc de montrer ce que peuvent apporter ces analyses dans l'evaluation du risque accidentel dans la collectivite, la ville ou, a cause des implications des strategies de prevention, le departement ou la region. L'heterogeneite de la qualite et de la quantite des resultats que l'on peut attendre en fonction des divers types de risques et de consequences est d'abord mise en valeur. Malgre leurs incertitudes, des modeles existent qui permettent de calculer les victimes d'accidents industriels 'types'. Pour les installations classees et les transports de matieres dangereuses, le calcul du risque est loin d'etre systematique, mais il est pratique. Un second domaine

  8. Framing adaptation: three aspects for climate change risk management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, Roger

    2007-01-01

    Full text: Substantial resources are being allocated to adaptation research and implementation. To use these resources wisely, framing the context within which adaptation decisions are made is critical. Three aspects are: Methods for assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when; Understanding the dynamic between different conceptual models for framing adaptation based on: a. Damages increasing proportionally with change, or b. Ricardian models that require adjustments to attain the 'new normal'; Adopting staged management strategies that depend on system status, which may range from business-as-usual to critical. General adaptation requirements and planning horizons need to have already been identified in scoping studies. Planning horizons include both operational and aspirational targets. Incremental adaptation can be informed by an aspirational goal far off into the future, but is undertaken through a shorter term operational approach. The need to anticipate long-term outcomes in advance is most relevant to measures that require large initial planning and investment, those with long lifetimes, or those where potential damages are irreversible and unacceptable. Five major sources of climate change uncertainty are relevant to assessing how much climate change to adapt to by when: ongoing climate variability and rate of change; past and future commitments to climate change; regional climate change projections; climate sensitivity; greenhouse gas emission scenarios and radiative forcing. These factors combine with different levels of importance depending on the relevant planning horizon. Short-term adaptation is most sensitive to the first and second factors, and long-term adaptation to the last three factors. These factors can be assessed within a probabilistic framework. Two conceptual models dominate assessments designed to inform adaptation. The IPCC Third and Fourth Assessment Reports clearly show that a great many risks increase proportionally with

  9. Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rootzén, Holger; Katz, Richard W.

    2013-09-01

    In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on the assumption of a stationary climate and do not apply to a changing climate, whether local or global. In this paper, we propose a refined concept, Design Life Level, which quantifies risk in a nonstationary climate and can serve as the basis for communication. In current practice, typical hydrologic risk management focuses on a standard (e.g., in terms of a high quantile corresponding to the specified probability of failure for a single year). Nevertheless, the basic information needed for engineering design should consist of (i) the design life period (e.g., the next 50 years, say 2015-2064); and (ii) the probability (e.g., 5% chance) of a hazardous event (typically, in the form of the hydrologic variable exceeding a high level) occurring during the design life period. Capturing both of these design characteristics, the Design Life Level is defined as an upper quantile (e.g., 5%) of the distribution of the maximum value of the hydrologic variable (e.g., water level) over the design life period. We relate this concept and variants of it to existing literature and illustrate how they, and some useful complementary plots, may be computed and used. One practically important consideration concerns quantifying the statistical uncertainty in estimating a high quantile under nonstationarity.

  10. Langley Research Center Utility Risk from Future Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Young, Russell J.; Ganoe, Rene

    2015-01-01

    The successful operation of NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) depends on services provided by several public utility companies. These include Newport News Waterworks, Dominion Virginia Power, Virginia Natural Gas and Hampton Roads Sanitation District. LaRC's plan to respond to future climate change should take into account how these companies plan to avoid interruption of services while minimizing cost to the customers. This report summarizes our findings from publicly available documents on how each company plans to respond. This will form the basis for future planning for the Center. Our preliminary findings show that flooding and severe storms could interrupt service from the Waterworks and Sanitation District but the potential is low due to plans in place to address climate change on their system. Virginia Natural Gas supplies energy to produce steam but most current steam comes from the Hampton trash burning plant, thus interruption risk is low. Dominion Virginia Power does not address climate change impacts on their system in their public reports. The potential interruption risk is considered to be medium. The Hampton Roads Sanitation District is projecting a major upgrade of their system to mitigate clean water inflow and infiltration. This will reduce infiltration and avoid overloading the pump stations and treatment plants.

  11. Climate of opinion risks undermining war on emissions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shepherd, John [nuclear 24, London (United Kingdom)

    2014-06-15

    Analysts in the US are becomingly increasingly vocal about how policies that are designed to combat the effects of climate change risk doing the exact opposite, because they are so heavily in favour of 'renewables' that they are putting increasing pressure on the country's biggest source of zero-emissions power - nuclear. What makes this and reports interesting reading is that the so-called 'German experience' - where nuclear power continues to be gradually phased out for political reasons - is proving a sobering thought for the US. Policies that force nuclear out of the mix of resources with which to combat climate change will prove to be short-sighted and the consequences far reaching. (orig.)

  12. Assessing Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Insights Using Retrospective Analysis of Crop Insurance and Climatic Trends

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reyes, J. J.; Elias, E.; Eischens, A.; Shilts, M.; Rango, A.; Steele, R.

    2017-12-01

    The collaborative synthesis of existing datasets, such as long-term climate observations and farmers' crop insurance payments, can increase their overall collective value and societal application. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Climate Hubs were created to develop and deliver science-based information and technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers to enable climate-informed decision-making. As part of this mission, Hubs work across USDA and other climate service agencies to synthesize existing information. The USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) is responsible for overseeing the Federal crop insurance program which currently insures over $100 billion in crops annually. RMA hosts data describing the cause for loss (e.g. drought, wind, irrigation failure) and indemnity amount (i.e. total cost of loss) at multiple spatio-temporal scales (i.e. state, county, year, month). The objective of this paper is to link climate information with indemnities, and their associated cause of loss, to assess climate risk on agricultural production and provide regionally-relevant information to stakeholders to promote resilient working landscapes. We performed a retrospective trend analysis at the state-level for the American Southwest (SW). First, we assessed indemnity-only trends by cause of loss and crop type at varying temporal scales. Historical monthly weather data (i.e. precipitation and temperature) and long-term drought indices (e.g. Palmer Drought Severity Index) were then linked with indemnities and grouped by different causes of loss. Climatological ranks were used to integrate historical comparative intensity of acute and long-term climatic events. Heat and drought as causes of loss were most correlated with temperature and drought indicators, respectively. Across all SW states increasing indemnities were correlated with warmer conditions. Multiple statistical trend analyses suggest a framework is necessary to appropriately measure the biophysical

  13. Arguing about climate change. Judging the handling of climate risk to future generations by comparison to the general standards of conduct in the case of risk to contemporaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Davidson, M.D.

    2009-01-01

    Intergenerational justice requires that climate risks to future generations be handled with the same reasonable care deemed acceptable by society in the case of risks to contemporaries. Such general standards of conduct are laid down in tort law, for example. Consequently, the validity of arguments for or against more stringent climate policy can be judged by comparison to the general standards of conduct applying in the case of risk to contemporaries. That this consistency test is able to disqualify certain arguments in the climate debate is illustrated by a further investigation of the debate on the social discount rate, used in cost-benefit analysis of climate policy

  14. Companies and Climate Risk: Opportunities to Engage the Business Community in Promoting Climate-conscious Policies (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2013-12-01

    Regardless of their policy orientation, the business community has an interest in how climate change impacts will affect their operations and ultimately change their bottom line. The reality that climate change presents material and financial risks to many companies in diverse sectors of the economy presents an opportunity to engage companies on climate-related issues. Company investors are exposed to such financial risks and can pressure public companies to change behavior through shareholder resolutions, voting, and election of new board members. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates all publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business in their annual Form 10-K filings. In 2010, the guidance for the Form 10-K specifically suggested that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change--both from its physical effects and from impacts of climate regulations. Form 10-Ks for 28 US companies were analyzed for the years 2009 and 2010. Results indicate that some companies comprehensively considered climate-related risks. However, in spite of the SEC guidance, some fail to mention climate change at all. Additionally, many companies discuss only the impacts that regulation would have on their business--not the physical effects of climate change itself. The lack of consideration of climate-related risks in companies' risk assessments demonstrates a need for a more uniform understanding of SEC requirements and additionally, this state of affairs presents an opportunity to push companies to more deeply consider climate change impacts. Several avenues are available for engaging with companies themselves, their shareholders, the SEC, and the public. We will explore what strategies have been effective for engaging such actors and what further opportunities exist for working with the business community to promote more climate-conscious policies and practices.

  15. A risk assessment framework for irrigated agriculture under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ronco, P.; Zennaro, F.; Torresan, S.; Critto, A.; Santini, M.; Trabucco, A.; Zollo, A. L.; Galluccio, G.; Marcomini, A.

    2017-12-01

    In several regions, but especially in semi-arid areas, raising frequency, duration and intensity of drought events, mainly driven by climate change dynamics, are expected to dramatically reduce the current stocks of freshwater resources, limiting crop development and yield especially where agriculture largely depends on irrigation. The achievement of an affordable and sustainable equilibrium between available water resources and irrigation demand is essentially related to the planning and implementation of evidence-based adaptation strategies and actions. The present study proposed a state-of-the art conceptual framework and computational methodology to assess the potential water scarcity risk, due to changes in climate trends and variability, on irrigated croplands. The model has been tested over the irrigated agriculture of Puglia Region, a semi-arid territory with the largest agricultural production in Southern Italy. The methodology, based on the Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) approach, has been applied within a scenario-based hazard framework. Regional climate projections, under alternative greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and for two different timeframes, 2021-2050 and 2041-2070 compared to the baseline 1976-2005 period, have been used to drive hydrological simulations of river inflow to the most important reservoirs serving irrigation purposes in Puglia. The novelty of the proposed RRA-based approach does not simply rely on the concept of risk as combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, but rather elaborates detailed (scientific and conceptual) framing and computational description of these factors, to produce risk spatial pattern maps and related statistics distinguishing the most critical areas (risk hot spots).. The application supported the identification of the most affected areas (i.e. Capitanata Reclamation Consortia under RCP8.5 2041-2070 scenario), crops (fruit trees and vineyards), and, finally, the vulnerability

  16. Interactions between chemical and climate stressors: A role for mechanistic toxicology in assessing climate change risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hooper, Michael J.; Ankley, Gerald T.; Cristol, Daniel A.; Maryoung, Lindley A.; Noyes, Pamela D.; Pinkerton, Kent E.

    2013-01-01

    Incorporation of global climate change (GCC) effects into assessments of chemical risk and injury requires integrated examinations of chemical and nonchemical stressors. Environmental variables altered by GCC (temperature, precipitation, salinity, pH) can influence the toxicokinetics of chemical absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion as well as toxicodynamic interactions between chemicals and target molecules. In addition, GCC challenges processes critical for coping with the external environment (water balance, thermoregulation, nutrition, and the immune, endocrine, and neurological systems), leaving organisms sensitive to even slight perturbations by chemicals when pushed to the limits of their physiological tolerance range. In simplest terms, GCC can make organisms more sensitive to chemical stressors, while alternatively, exposure to chemicals can make organisms more sensitive to GCC stressors. One challenge is to identify potential interactions between nonchemical and chemical stressors affecting key physiological processes in an organism. We employed adverse outcome pathways, constructs depicting linkages between mechanism-based molecular initiating events and impacts on individuals or populations, to assess how chemical- and climate-specific variables interact to lead to adverse outcomes. Case examples are presented for prospective scenarios, hypothesizing potential chemical–GCC interactions, and retrospective scenarios, proposing mechanisms for demonstrated chemical–climate interactions in natural populations. Understanding GCC interactions along adverse outcome pathways facilitates extrapolation between species or other levels of organization, development of hypotheses and focal areas for further research, and improved inputs for risk and resource injury assessments.

  17. Cartograms Facilitate Communication of Climate Change Risks and Responsibilities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Döll, Petra

    2017-12-01

    Communication of climate change (CC) risks is challenging, in particular if global-scale spatially resolved quantitative information is to be conveyed. Typically, visualization of CC risks, which arise from the combination of hazard, exposure and vulnerability, is confined to showing only the hazards in the form of global thematic maps. This paper explores the potential of contiguous value-by-area cartograms, that is, distorted density-equalizing maps, for improving communication of CC risks and the countries' differentiated responsibilities for CC. Two global-scale cartogram sets visualize, as an example, groundwater-related CC risks in 0.5° grid cells, another one the correlation of (cumulative) fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions with the countries' population and gross domestic product. Viewers of the latter set visually recognize the lack of global equity and that the countries' wealth has been built on harmful emissions. I recommend that CC risks are communicated by bivariate gridded cartograms showing the hazard in color and population, or a combination of population and a vulnerability indicator, by distortion of grid cells. Gridded cartograms are also appropriate for visualizing the availability of natural resources to humans. For communicating complex information, sets of cartograms should be carefully designed instead of presenting single cartograms. Inclusion of a conventionally distorted map enhances the viewers' capability to take up the information represented by distortion. Empirical studies about the capability of global cartograms to convey complex information and to trigger moral emotions should be conducted, with a special focus on risk communication.

  18. Risk Communication and Climate Justice Planning: A Case of Michigan’s Huron River Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chingwen Cheng

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Communicating climate risks is crucial when engaging the public to support climate action planning and addressing climate justice. How does evidence-based communication influence local residents’ risk perception and potential behavior change in support of climate planning? Built upon our previous study of Climate Justice maps illustrating high scores of both social and ecological vulnerability in Michigan’s Huron River watershed, USA, a quasi-experiment was conducted to examine the effects of Climate Justice mapping intervention on residents’ perceptions and preparedness for climate change associated hazards in Michigan. Two groups were compared: residents in Climate Justice areas with high social and ecological vulnerability scores in the watershed (n=76 and residents in comparison areas in Michigan (n=69. Measurements for risk perception include perceived exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability to hazards. Results indicate that risk information has a significant effect on perceived sensitivity and level of preparedness for future climate extremes among participants living in Climate Justice areas. Findings highlight the value of integrating scientific risk assessment information in risk communication to align calculated and perceived risks. This study suggests effective risk communication can influence local support of climate action plans and implementation of strategies that address climate justice and achieve social sustainability in local communities.

  19. The Influence of Instruction, Prior Knowledge, and Values on Climate Change Risk Perception among Undergraduates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksit, Osman; McNeal, Karen S.; Gold, Anne U.; Libarkin, Julie C.; Harris, Sara

    2018-01-01

    We evaluated influences on the climate change risk perceptions of undergraduate students in an introductory Earth Science course. For this sample, domain-specific content knowledge about climate change was a significant predictor of students' risk perception of climate change while cultural worldviews (individualism, hierarchy) and political…

  20. Development of risk matrices for evaluating climatic change responses of forested habitats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis R. Iverson; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary. Yohe

    2012-01-01

    We present an approach to assess and compare risk from climate change among multiple species through a risk matrix, in which managers can quickly prioritize for species that need to have strategies developed, evaluated further, or watched. We base the matrix upon earlier work towards the National Climate Assessment for potential damage to infrastructures from climate...

  1. Against the tide: climate change and high-risk cities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dodman, David

    2008-11-15

    In the world's poorest and most vulnerable nations, most cities and towns face a distinct dual pressure: rapidly growing population and high vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. Drought, storms, flooding and sea level rise are likely to hit hardest here. These in turn put water supplies, infrastructure, health and livelihoods at risk in the very cities already struggling to provide or safeguard such key needs. An effective response demands capable local and national government and support from strong international networks in building capacity to cope. Most of the Least Developed Countries lack both.

  2. Plans de gestion de l'eau adaptés au climat pour les villes de l'Asie ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Economic analysis of solid waste management and drainage for climate resilient cities in South Asia. Most fast-growing cities in South Asia face increased waterlogging and water contamination from improperly managed solid waste. View moreEconomic analysis of solid waste management and drainage for climate ...

  3. Predictors of public climate change awareness and risk perception around the world

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Tien Ming; Markowitz, Ezra M.; Howe, Peter D.; Ko, Chia-Ying; Leiserowitz, Anthony A.

    2015-11-01

    Climate change is a threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, yet public opinion research finds that public awareness and concern vary greatly. Here, using an unprecedented survey of 119 countries, we determine the relative influence of socio-demographic characteristics, geography, perceived well-being, and beliefs on public climate change awareness and risk perceptions at national scales. Worldwide, educational attainment is the single strongest predictor of climate change awareness. Understanding the anthropogenic cause of climate change is the strongest predictor of climate change risk perceptions, particularly in Latin America and Europe, whereas perception of local temperature change is the strongest predictor in many African and Asian countries. However, other key factors associated with public awareness and risk perceptions highlight the need to develop tailored climate communication strategies for individual nations. The results suggest that improving basic education, climate literacy, and public understanding of the local dimensions of climate change are vital to public engagement and support for climate action.

  4. Using the adaptive cycle in climate-risk insurance to design resilient futures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremades, R.; Surminski, S.; Máñez Costa, M.; Hudson, P.; Shrivastava, P.; Gascoigne, J.

    2018-01-01

    Assessing the dynamics of resilience could help insurers and governments reduce the costs of climate-risk insurance schemes and secure future insurability in the face of an increase in extreme hydro-meteorological events related to climate change.

  5. Use of climate information for drought risk management in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neri, C.; Magaña Rueda, V.

    2013-05-01

    The occurrence of meteorological droughts in Mexico has brought to light the large vulnerability of the central-northern part of the country to water shortages. This region is facing current and future water shortages due to the increased demand of water from urban growth in addition to droughts. Assessing droughts requires considering long-term losses and side effects. However, governments generally invest little resources in the creation of drought risk reduction programs, even in regions where droughts have been documented in historical records, such as in the northern region of Mexico. It is not clear until now, what is our capacity to predict droughts on seasonal time scale, and even the Drought Monitor for North America not always reflect the severity of the condition at the regional level. An analysis of strategies that focus on droughts show that one of the principal limits in the management of drought risks and preventive decision making is the use of inadequate definitions of drought predictability. In addition, the means to communicate confidence in seasonal climate forecasts has inhibited the use of climate information in the planning of various socioeconomic activities. Although some sectors such as agriculture have programs to reduce the impacts of drought, their efforts have focused in providing subsidies to get along with dry conditions. In other words, there are no actions to reduce the potential impacts of drought. The characterization of the vulnerability of water user groups, particularly in Sonora as case of study, has been useful to identifying what type of climate information decision makers needed. This information will be included in a proposal of a drought early warming for Mexico. A key element in a drought early warming for Mexico is the development of reliable climate information and the use of indicators to determine of the onset, maximum intensity and duration of the event. The occurrence and severity of drought may be estimated using

  6. Climates of risk: a field analysis of global climate change in US media discourse, 1997-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sonnett, John

    2010-11-01

    How are industry and environmentalist discourses of climate risk related to dominant scientific and political discourses? This study operationalizes Bourdieu's concept of symbolic capital in order to map dimensions of risk description and prescription onto a journalistic field of industry, environmentalist, scientific, and political media. Results show that conventional definitions of risk mirror an opposition between scientific and political discourses. Prescriptions for action on risk are partly autonomous from definitions however. Environmentalist and scientific media feature more proactive discourse, and industry and political media feature more reactive discourse. Implications for future research on climate risk and relational studies of media discourse are discussed.

  7. The many facets of climate change - Conference proceedings; Les multiples facettes du changement climatique - Recueil des presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2011-03-15

    This conference day on climate change was organized by the French meteorological society (SMF) at the Ecole Normale Superieure of Paris. This document brings together the available presentations given at the conference. Eight presentations (slides) are compiled in this document and deal with: 1 - Climate change today and tomorrow, the research stakes (Herve Le Treut, IPSL); 2 - Rise of sea levels: estimations and regional variability (Guy Woeppelmann, La Rochelle Univ.); 3 - Polar ice caps and continental cryo-sphere as seen from space (A. Kouraev, F. Remy, E. Berthier, LEGOS); 4 - Impacts of climate change on exploited marine populations: projections and uncertainties (Patrick Lehodey, CLS); 5 - Climate change stakes on agricultural and winery activities in France (Eric Duchene, INRA); 6 - Impacts of climate change on forest trees phenology and their consequences on trees life and survival (Francois Lebourgeois, ENGREF); 7 - Remote-epidemiology: a health-aid in a climate change context (Murielle Lafaye, CNES); 8 - Socio-economic aspects and adaptation: a climate history, for what? (Emmanuel Garnier, Caen Univ.)

  8. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  9. Frost risk for overwintering crops in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vico, Giulia; Weih, Martin

    2013-04-01

    Climate change scenarios predict a general increase in daily temperatures and a decline in snow cover duration. On the one hand, higher temperature in fall and spring may facilitate the development of overwintering crops and allow the expansion of winter cropping in locations where the growing season is currently too short. On the other hand, higher temperatures prior to winter crop dormancy slow down frost hardening, enhancing crop vulnerability to temperature fluctuation. Such vulnerability may be exacerbated by reduced snow cover, with potential further negative impacts on yields in extremely low temperatures. We propose a parsimonious probabilistic model to quantify the winter frost damage risk for overwintering crops, based on a coupled model of air temperature, snow cover, and crop minimum tolerable temperature. The latter is determined by crop features, previous history of temperature, and snow cover. The temperature-snow cover model is tested against meteorological data collected over 50 years in Sweden and applied to winter wheat varieties differing in their ability to acquire frost resistance. Hence, exploiting experimental results assessing crop frost damage under limited temperature and snow cover realizations, this probabilistic framework allows the quantification of frost risk for different crop varieties, including in full temperature and precipitation unpredictability. Climate change scenarios are explored to quantify the effects of changes in temperature mean and variance and precipitation regime over crops differing in winter frost resistance and response to temperature.

  10. Farmers' Perceived Risks of Climate Change and Influencing Factors: A Study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  11. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and influencing factors: a study in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Le Dang, Hoa; Li, Elton; Nuberg, Ian; Bruwer, Johan

    2014-08-01

    Many countries are confronting climate change that threatens agricultural production and farmers' lives. Farmers' perceived risks of climate change and factors influencing those perceived risks are critical to their adaptive behavior and well-planned adaptation strategies. However, there is limited understanding of these issues. In this paper, we attempt to quantitatively measure farmers' perceived risks of climate change and explore the influences of risk experience, information, belief in climate change, and trust in public adaptation to those perceived risks. Data are from structured interviews with 598 farmers in the Mekong Delta. The study shows that perceived risks to production, physical health, and income dimensions receive greater priority while farmers pay less attention to risks to happiness and social relationships. Experiences of the events that can be attributed to climate change increase farmers' perceived risks. Information variables can increase or decrease perceived risks, depending on the sources of information. Farmers who believe that climate change is actually happening and influencing their family's lives, perceive higher risks in most dimensions. Farmers who think that climate change is not their concern but the government's, perceive lower risks to physical health, finance, and production. As to trust in public adaptation, farmers who believe that public adaptive measures are well co-ordinated, perceive lower risks to production and psychology. Interestingly, those who believe that the disaster warning system is working well, perceive higher risks to finance, production, and social relationships. Further attention is suggested for the quality, timing, and channels of information about climate change and adaptation.

  12. Climate Change and Crop Exposure to Adverse Weather: Changes to Frost Risk and Grapevine Flowering Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mosedale, Jonathan R; Wilson, Robert J; Maclean, Ilya M D

    2015-01-01

    The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.

  13. Beyond Quarterly Earnings: Preparing the Business Community for Long-term Climate Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlson, C.; Goldman, G. T.

    2014-12-01

    The business community stands to be highly impacted by climate change. In both short and long-term timescales, climate change presents material and financial risks to companies in diverse economic sectors. How the private sector accounts for long-term risks while making short-term decisions about operations is a complex challenge. Companies are accountable to shareholders and must report performance to them on a quarterly basis. At the same time, company investors are exposed to long-term climate-related risks and face losses if companies fail to prepare for climate impacts. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business and since 2010, the agency recommends that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change. Some companies have complied with this guidance and comprehensively analyze potential climate change impacts, yet others fail to consider climate change at all. Such omissions leave companies without plans for addressing future risks and expose investors and the public to potential catastrophic events from climate change impacts. Climate risk projections can inform companies about the vulnerability of their facilities, supply chains, transportation pathways, and other assets. Such projections can help put climate-related risks in terms of material costs for companies and their investors. Focusing on the vulnerability of coastal facilities, we will use climate change impact projections to demonstrate the economic impacts of climate change faced by the private sector. These risks are then compared to company disclosures to the SEC to assess the degree to which companies have considered their vulnerability to climate change. Finally, we will discuss ways that companies can better assess and manage long-term climate risks.

  14. Multiple aspects of climate change - Summary of presentations; Les multiples facettes du changement climatique - Resume des presentations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andre, Jean-Claude; Bauer, Pierre; Le Treut, Herve [Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, 78280 Guyancourt Cedex (France); Woeppelmann, Guy [Universite de la Rochelle, 17000 La Rochelle (France); Kouraev, Alexei; Remy, Frederique; Berthier, Etienne [Legos, 31401 Toulouse cedex 9 (France); Lehodey, Patrick [CLS, 31520 Ramonville St Agne (France); Lebourgeois, Francois [ENGREF, AgroParisTech, 54042 Nancy Cedex (France); Chuine, Isabelle [CEFE, CNRS, Montpellier (France); Vennetier, Michel [CEMAGREF, 13182 Aix en Provence cedex 5 (France); Duchene, Eric [INRA-Universite de Strasbourg, 68021 Colmar Cedex (France); Lafaye, Murielle [CNES, 31401 Toulouse cedex 9 (France)

    2011-08-15

    The French Meteorological Society (SMF) organized its annual scientific day on March 23, 2011 on the topic of the multiple aspects of climate change. The aim was to take stock of the lessons learnt from the different meteorological markers in several domains (agriculture, forests, ecosystems, rise of sea level, changes in marine biodiversity, health, snow and ice caps..). This paper summarizes the seven presentations given at this meeting: 1 - climate change today and tomorrow (H. Le Treut); 2 - rise of oceans level: estimations and regional variability (G. Woeppelmann); 3 - polar caps and continental cryo-sphere as seen from space (A. Kouraev, F. Remy and E. Berthier); 4 - impact of climate change on exploited marine populations: projections and uncertainties (P. Lehodey); 5 - stakes of climate change on agricultural and winery activities in France (E. Duchene); 6 - impact of climate change on forest trees phenology and consequence on their survival and operation (F. Lebourgeois, I. Chuine and M. Vennetier); 7 - 'tele-epidemiology': a health-aid in a climate change context. (J.S.)

  15. Climate change, natural disasters, and the risk of violent conflict

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Slettebak, Rune Thorkildsen

    2012-07-01

    This PhD project aims to assess the relation between natural disasters triggered by extreme weather events and the risk of violent conflict. The focus on these natural disasters stems from expectations that climate change will increase the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, combined with frequent suggestions that climate change in general and natural disasters in particular can be expected to trigger more violent conflicts. A number of conflict types, ranging from riots to civil war, are tested. Case studies have found examples where environmental factors have contributed to triggering conflict. However, without systematic assessments, we do not know whether these cases are exceptions or parts of a common pattern. Learning more about this is a prime aim of this thesis. As the effects of climate change are still mainly in the future, I turn to the past for learning more about these connections. Although future relations may differ from those in the past, learning from history is considered the best way of increasing our basis of knowledge on what to expect from the future. The thesis tests two opposing theoretical traditions against each other. On one side is the environmental security literature, which holds that environmentally induced adversity is likely to increase the risk of violent conflict. The other, relatively unknown tradition, called disaster sociology, expects adversity to stimulate altruistic behavior and replace past ascribed identities with new 'communities of sufferers' in the disaster aftermath. In a violent conflict setting, this argument is read as that disasters should reduce conflict risk. Four analyses have been conducted. The first has a global coverage, two focus on India and the last one on Indonesia. The first analysis aims to uncover general trends, while the three others use cases where environmentally driven violence is considered particularly likely, and disaggregated analytical designs that should be well

  16. Separating sensitivity from exposure in assessing extinction risk from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Maria G; Orme, C David L; Suttle, K Blake; Mace, Georgina M

    2014-11-04

    Predictive frameworks of climate change extinction risk generally focus on the magnitude of climate change a species is expected to experience and the potential for that species to track suitable climate. A species' risk of extinction from climate change will depend, in part, on the magnitude of climate change the species experiences, its exposure. However, exposure is only one component of risk. A species' risk of extinction will also depend on its intrinsic ability to tolerate changing climate, its sensitivity. We examine exposure and sensitivity individually for two example taxa, terrestrial amphibians and mammals. We examine how these factors are related among species and across regions and how explicit consideration of each component of risk may affect predictions of climate change impacts. We find that species' sensitivities to climate change are not congruent with their exposures. Many highly sensitive species face low exposure to climate change and many highly exposed species are relatively insensitive. Separating sensitivity from exposure reveals patterns in the causes and drivers of species' extinction risk that may not be evident solely from predictions of climate change. Our findings emphasise the importance of explicitly including sensitivity and exposure to climate change in assessments of species' extinction risk.

  17. Overview of the risk management approach to adaptation to climate change in Canada

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Noble, D.; Bruce, J.; Egener, M.

    2005-03-01

    Climate change poses risks related to frequent and extreme weather events, changes in water availability and changes in the performance of infrastructure systems. Risk management offers a decision-making framework to assist in the selection of optimal or cost-effective strategies using a systematic public process. Risks related to climate change are a new type of risk and are increasingly of concern for governments and citizens around the world. An introduction to risk-based approaches to climate change adaptation decision-making in Canada was presented in this paper. Steps in the risk management process were presented. Risk management approaches from various countries were reviewed, including the Canadian Standards Association's (CSA) national risk management guideline; the Government of Canada's Integrated Risk Management Framework; the Caribbean Risk Management Guideline; World Bank risk management strategies for adaptation to climate change; and the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program. Details of a study conducted by the United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs to explore the implications of climate change were also presented. Vulnerabilities of response mechanisms to climate change and the interrelations of public systems were reviewed. Issues concerning infrastructure renewal and development were examined, as well as emergency planning and management strategies. It was concluded that the development of training materials and tools for decision-makers in Canada is needed. A climate change risk management planning guidebook was proposed. refs., tabs., figs

  18. Simulation of recent and future climates using CNRM and IPSL models; Simulation du climat recent et futur par les modeles du CNRM et de l'IPSL

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dufresne, J.L.; Bony, S.; Fairhead, L.; Grandpeix, J.Y.; Hourdin, F.; Idelkadi, A.; Musat, I. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. de Meteorologie Dynamique (LMD-IPSL), CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Salas y Melia, D.; Tyteca, S.; Chauvin, F.; Deque, M.; Douville, H.; Gueremy, J.F.; Marquet, P.; Planton, S.; Royer, J.F.; Voldoire, A. [Meteo France Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques, 31 - Toulouse (France); Denvil, S.; Cadule, P.; Foujols, M.A. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, CNRS, 75 - Paris (France); Arzel, O.; Fichefet, T. [Universite Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Louvain-la-Neuve (Belgium). Inst. d' Astronomie et de Geophysique G. Lemaitre; Braconnot, P.; Brockmann, P.; Caubel, A.; Friedlingstein, P.; Marti, O.; Swingedouw, D. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, Domaine du CNRS, 91 - Gif Sur Yvette (France); Krinner, G. [Universite Joseph-Fourier, Grenoble I, Lab. de Glaciologie et Geophysique de l' Environnement (LGGE), CNRS, 38 - Saint Martin d' Heres (France); Levy, C.; Madec, G. [Universite Pierre et Marie Curie, Lab. d' Oceanographie et Climat (Locean-IPLS), CNRS, 75 - Paris (France)

    2006-11-15

    In support of the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that should appear in early 2007, modelling groups world-wide have performed a huge coordinated exercise of climate change runs for the 20. and 21. centuries. In this paper we present the results of the two French climate models, CNRM and IPSL. In particular we emphasize the progress made since the previous IPCC report and we identify which results are comparable among models and which strongly differ. (authors)

  19. Snow loads in a changing climate: new risks?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    U. Strasser

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available In January/February 2006, heavy snowfalls in Bavaria (Germany lead to a series of infrastructural damage of catastrophic nature. Since on many collapsed roofs the total snow load was not exceptional, serious engineering deficiencies in roof construction and a sudden rise in the total snow load were considered to be the trigger of the events. An analysis of the then meteorological conditions reveals, that the early winter of 2005/2006 was characterised by an exceptional continuous snow cover, temperatures remained around the freezing point and no significant snowmelt was evident. The frequent freezing/thawing cycles were followed by a general compaction of the snow load. This resulted in a re-distribution and a new concentration of the snow load on specific locations on roofs. With respect to climate change, the question arises as to whether the risks relating to snow loads will increase. The future probability of a continuous snow cover occurrence with frequent freezing/thawing cycles will probably decline due to predicted higher temperatures. However, where temperatures remain low, an increase in winter precipitation will result in increased snow loads. Furthermore, the variability of extremes is predicted to increase. If heavy snowfall events are more frequent, the risk of a trigger event will likely increase. Finally, an attempt will be made here in this paper to outline a concept for an operational warning system for the Bavarian region. This system envisages to predict the development and risk of critical snow loads for a 3-day time period, utilising a combination of climate and snow modelling data and using this together with a snow pillow device (located on roofs and the results of which.

  20. Climate effect on forest fire static risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodini, Antonella; Cossu, Antonello; Entrade, Erika; Fiorucci, Paolo; Gaetani, Francesco; Parodi, Ulderica

    2010-05-01

    The availability of a long data series of fire perimeters combined with a detailed knowledge of topography and land cover allow to understand which are the main features involved in forest fire occurrences and their behaviour. In addition, climate indexes obtained from the analysis of time series with more than 20 years of complete records allow to understand the role of climate on fire regime, both in terms of direct effects on fire behaviour and the effect on vegetation cover. In particular, indices of extreme events have been considered like CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days) and HWDI (heat wave duration index: maximum period > 5 consecutive days with Tmax >5°C above the 1961-1990 daily Tmax normal), together with the usual indices describing rainfall and temperature regimes. As a matter of fact, based on this information it is possible to develop statistical methods for the objective classification of forest fire static risk at regional scale. Two different case studies are presented in this work: Regione Liguria and Regione Sardegna (Italy). Both regions are in the center of the Mediterranean and are characterized by a high number of fires and burned area. However, the two regions have very different fire regimes. Sardinia is affected by the fire phenomenon only in summer whilst Liguria is affected by fires also in winter, with higher number of fires and larger burned area. In addition, the two region are very different in vegetation cover. The presence of Mediterranean conifers, (Pinus Pinaster, Pinus Nigra, Pinus halepensis) is quite spread in Liguria and is almost absent in Sardinia. What is common in the two regions is the widespread presence of shrub species frequently spread by fire. The analysis in the two regions thus allows in a rather limited area to consider almost all the species and the climate conditions that characterize the Mediterranean region. More than 10000 fire perimeters that burnt about 800 km2 were considered in the analysis

  1. Climate and competitiveness in energy, two interrelated challenges for the coming decades; Climat et competitivite energetique: deux defis lies pour les prochaines decennies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dron, D. [Mission Interministerielle de l' effet de Serre, 75 - Paris (France)

    2003-01-01

    Concern about the climate is increasing not just because recent scientific research indicates that climatic modifications are already menacing us, but also because it hooks up with the especially sensitive issue of the energy supply, in particular petroleum and natural gas. These two challenges are converging toward the period between 2020 and 2050, when decisive actions will have to have been taken for transforming current technology and organizations. The interaction between these two issues is described, along with the existing means for preparing for the transition in the energy supply. Information is drawn from the state of scientific knowledge about the climate as reported during international negotiations - in particular, information about the key factors discussed during the most recent round of talks in New Delhi in November 2002, organized as part of the UN Convention on Climate Change. (author)

  2. Innovative Corporate Initiatives to Reduce Climate Risk: Lessons from East Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward B. Barbier

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Businesses, investors, and insurers are requiring better quantitative assessments of their exposure to climate risks and their impact on climate change. They are incorporating these assessments in their day-to-day management and long-term investment decisions. Already, there are efforts to develop international guidelines, common policies and legal frameworks for such assessments, as well as the desire to foster climate financing. We examine recent progress in East Asia and the rest of the world in setting targets, pricing policies, and other mechanisms to reduce climate risks. We develop a model that demonstrates how reduced climate risk management may lower the total cost of capital of firms, thus making them more attractive to investors. We discuss the additional policies needed to support improved climate risk management in investment decisions, private investments in climate science, technology and innovation (STI expansion, and more widespread adoption of climate financing and principles. Central banks, financial authorities, and governments can advance this objective by creating financial incentives to support investment decision-making. This would take into account factors such as improving climate performance, establishing better climate risk management and reporting requirements to foster green STI, and developing international guidelines and common policy and legal frameworks to support better climate risk management, assessments and reporting.

  3. Risk management perspective for climate service development - Results from a study on Finnish organizations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harjanne, Atte; Haavisto, Riina; Tuomenvirta, Heikki; Gregow, Hilppa

    2017-10-01

    Weather, climate and climate change can cause significant risks to businesses and public administration. However, understanding these processes can also create opportunities. Information can help to manage these risks and opportunities, but in order to do so, it must be in line with how risk management and decision making works. To better understand how climate risks and opportunities are reflected in different organizational processes and what types of information is needed and used, we conducted a study on the perceptions and management of weather and climate risks in Finnish organizations and on their use of weather and climate information. In addition, we collected feedback on how the existing climate information tools should be developed. Data on climate risk management was collected in an online survey and in one full-day workshop. The survey was aimed to the Finnish public and private organizations who use weather and climate data and altogether 118 responses were collected. The workshop consisted of two parts: weather and climate risk management processes in general and the development of the current information tools to further address user needs.We found that climate risk management in organizations is quite diverse and often de-centralized and that external experts are considered the most useful sources of information. Consequently, users emphasize the need for networks of expertise and sector-specific information tools. Creating such services requires input and information sharing from the user side as well. Better temporal and spatial accuracy is naturally asked for, but users also stressed the need for transparency when it comes to communicating uncertainties, and the availability and up-to-datedness of information. Our results illustrate that weather and climate risks compete and blend in with other risks and changes perceived by the organizations and supporting information is sought from different types of sources. Thus the design and evaluation of

  4. Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk case study: a framework for assessing climate change risks to forest carbon stocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke

    2012-01-01

    Forest ecosystems have the ability to reduce the effects of climate change through the sequestration of carbon (C) (Pan et al. 2011) as well as contribute to net emissions through disturbance events such as wildfires and widespread tree mortality (Kurz et al. 2008). A conceptual framework for assessing climate-change risks to forest ecosystem C stocks facilitates...

  5. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

    2018-03-16

    Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

  6. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Street, Roger; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies. PMID:29547592

  7. Commonalities between Disaster and Climate Change Risks for Health: A Theoretical Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicola Banwell

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Disasters and climate change have significant implications for human health worldwide. Both climate change and the climate-sensitive hazards that result in disasters, are discussed in terms of direct and indirect impacts on health. A growing body of literature has argued for the need to link disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. However, there is limited articulation of the commonalities between these health impacts. Understanding the shared risk pathways is an important starting point for developing joint strategies for adapting to, and reducing, health risks. Therefore, this article discusses the common aspects of direct and indirect health risks of climate change and climate-sensitive disasters. Based on this discussion a theoretical framework is presented for understanding these commonalities. As such, this article hopes to extend the current health impact frameworks and provide a platform for further research exploring opportunities for linked adaptation and risk reduction strategies.

  8. Determinants of Farmers’ Climate Risk Perceptions in Agriculture—A Rural Ghana Perspective

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francis Ndamani

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available This study evaluates the socio-economic predictors of farmers’ perceptions about climate risk in agriculture. The levels of risk perception among different farmers’ wealth groups are also investigated. A total of 100 farmers in the Lawra district of Ghana are randomly selected and interviewed. Data is obtained through the use of semi-structured questionnaires and focus group discussions. A climate risk perception index (CRPI is derived and applied to assess the degree of perceived risk among different wealth groups of farmers. The linear regression model is also used to analyze the data. The results showed that 93% of farmers have perceived climate risk while 7% are not sure if they have perceived it. Results of the CRPI showed that resource-poor farmers are concerned about climate risk on agricultural production, while resource-moderate and resource-rich farmers are concerned about risk impacts on climatic variables, and health and socio-economy, respectively. Results of the regression model showed that education, age, a perceived increase in human disease and mortality, and a decrease in food security and incomes are predictors of risk perception. The policy implication of this study is that predictors of farmers’ climate risk perception should be factored into climate change risk communication in order to boost awareness and adaptation to climate change.

  9. Exposure and risks for operators; Exposition et risques chez les operateurs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob, S. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, Laboratoire d ' Epidemiologie, DRPH/SRBE/LEPID, 92 - Fontenay aux Roses (France)

    2009-07-01

    As the use of X rays in diagnosis or interventional imagery is increasing, the exposure of medical professional is also increasing. As brain cancer as consequence seems to be possibly dismissed, radio-induced effects on the eyes are now considered as a potential risk. The author evokes the current knowledge on this issue and some statistics on eye pathology among radiologists, but also a study performed at the initiative of the IRSN to test the existence of a higher risk of cataracts among interventional cardiologists in comparison with cardiologists not exposed to X rays. This study is called O'CLOC (occupational cataracts and lens opacities in interventional cardiology)

  10. Aurélien Bernier, 2008, Le climat otage de la finance ou comment le marché boursicote avec les droits à polluer, Essai, Mille et une nuits, Paris, 164 p.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Béatrice Quenault

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Dans cet essai, au titre provocateur « Le climat otage de la finance ou comment le marché boursicote avec les droits à polluer », l’auteur, Aurélien Bernier, ancien membre d’Attac France et chargé de mission dans le domaine de l’environnement, décrypte le fonctionnement d’un nouveau compartiment de la finance internationale, la « finance carbone » constituée d’un ensemble de marchés où s’échangent les permis d’émission négociables ou les unités de réduction d’émissions, communément appelés « ...

  11. Climate change as an amplifier of health risks: highland malaria in Africa.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huynen, Maud; Martens, Pim

    2016-01-01

    The interactions between climate and non-climate factors are of vital importance in shaping human vulnerability to global warming. In this chapter, this is illustrated for an important health risk induced by climate change, namely highland malaria in Africa. Despite the known causal links between

  12. Effects of climate change on US agriculture; Les effets du changement climatique sur l'agriculture americaine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guillet, L

    2007-08-15

    The USA are a major producer of food and fiber products in the world. The US agriculture represents more than 25% of the world trades of wheat, corn, soy and cotton. The cultivated surfaces and the pasture lands represent 210 million Ha (17% of the US territory) and 300 million Ha (26% of the US territory), respectively. The agricultural production represents less than 2% of the US GDP, put the agriculture products make about 5% of the US exports. The climate change may have some impacts on the overall agriculture industry, from the plant growth to the conditions of competition on international markets. In 2001, the US global change research program, published an evaluation report about the potential consequences of the climate change on the US agriculture. The conclusions of the panel of experts, based on climate, cultivation and economical models, was that the CO{sub 2} levels and climate changes of the 21. century would have no negative impact on the US agriculture. The average effects, on the contrary, would be rather positive, depending on the type of culture and on the region considered. Today, the experts have entertained lot of doubts about the 2001 forecasts: the fertilizing effect of CO{sub 2} is more and more criticized and an efficient supply of water appears as seriously compromised for many regions. Experts stress also on the lack of consideration for extreme climatic events, and for crop vermin and diseases. This document reanalyzes the conclusions of the 2001 report in the light of the works carried out more recently at the Agriculture Research Service (ARS). The proceedings of expert's interviews are attached in appendixes. (J.S.)

  13. Proceedings of the adapting to climate change in Canada 2005 conference : understanding risks and building capacity

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2005-01-01

    This four-day conference provided a national forum for researchers and decision-makers from a variety of disciplines to share information and results on climate change. Sponsored by Natural Resources Canada's Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Program, the conference explored ways to improve knowledge of Canada's vulnerability to climate change, to better assess the benefits and risks of climate change and to examine policies and options through which decisions on adaptation can be made. Conference topics included issues such as global warming; sustainable development; climate change and agriculture; adaptation strategies; water, coastline and marine management and climate change; municipal level management and climate change; climate change and health issues; and many other topics related to climate change. The conference featured paper and poster presentations, opening remarks, and panel discussions. A total of 118 conference papers and 46 conference posters were presented at the conference of which 17 have been catalogued separately in this database. refs., tabs., figs

  14. Climate Change Risk Perception in Taiwan: Correlation with Individual and Societal Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Yingying; Han, Ziqiang

    2018-01-08

    This study differentiates the risk perception and influencing factors of climate change along the dimensions of global severity and personal threat. Using the 2013 Taiwan Social Change Survey (TSGS) data (N = 2001) as a representative sample of adults from Taiwan, we investigated the influencing factors of the risk perceptions of climate change in these two dimensions (global severity and personal threat). Logistic regression models were used to examine the correlations of individual factors (gender, age, education, climate-related disaster experience and risk awareness, marital status, employment status, household income, and perceived social status) and societal factors (religion, organizational embeddedness, and political affiliations) with the above two dimensions. The results demonstrate that climate-related disaster experience has no significant impact on either the perception of global severity or the perception of personal impact. However, climate-related risk awareness (regarding typhoons, in particular) is positively associated with both dimensions of the perceived risks of climate change. With higher education, individuals are more concerned about global severity than personal threat. Regarding societal factors, the supporters of political parties have higher risk perceptions of climate change than people who have no party affiliation. Religious believers have higher risk perceptions of personal threat than non-religious people. This paper ends with a discussion about the effectiveness of efforts to enhance risk perception of climate change with regard to global severity and personal threat.

  15. Pedo-Climatic Risks Over Făllticeni City Related Orchards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jitariu Vasile

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Through this study, “Pedo-climatic risks over Fălticeni city related orchards”, we intend to conduct a study that highlights the way that a number of parameters such as climate and soil, through their evolution, may be considered a risk factor for orchards nearby Fălticeni city.

  16. Motivators and Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change-Related Health Risks in Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Turner, Lyle R.; Alderman, Katarzyna; Connell, Des; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within...

  17. Risk, Rationality and Nudging in Late Modern Society: Understanding the dynamics of the climate crisis

    OpenAIRE

    Jakobsen, Terne Sasha Thorn

    2016-01-01

    This study seeks to explore and explain how nudge theory may contribute to the understanding of thedynamics of the climate crisis in a ‘world risk society’. It is based on Ulrich Beck’s theory of a worldrisk society and unfolds through the combination of theories about risk, rationality and behaviour thatare ultimately brought together in relation to the climate crisis. A critical realistic perspective andmethod is taken to explore three hypothetical premises: 1) That the climate crisis is a ...

  18. Managing climate risk in South Africa's Western Cape | IDRC ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2011-01-05

    Jan 5, 2011 ... Climate change scenarios consistently predict even less rainfall in this ... Climate, and Sustainable Development; the International Research Institute; and ... School of Bioresources Engineering and Environmental Hydrology.

  19. How to Shape Climate Risk Policies After the Paris Agreement? The Importance of Perceptions as a Driver for Climate Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Máñez Costa, María.; Shreve, Cheney; Carmona, María.

    2017-10-01

    ABSTRACTRisk perception research has played an influential role in supporting risk management and risk communication policy. Risk perception studies are popular across a range of disciplines in the social and natural sciences for a wide range of hazard types. Their results have helped to articulate the complex individual, relational, structural, and environmental factors influencing people's behavior. Connections between individual and collective behaviors and norms impacting global climate change, and consequently, local disaster risk, however, are infrequently included in disaster risk management. This paper presents results from two diverse and complementary European risk perception studies examining both natural and anthropogenic hazards. Research gaps and recommendations for developing more comprehensive risk management strategies are presented.

  20. 'Weather Value at Risk': A uniform approach to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prettenthaler, Franz; Köberl, Judith; Bird, David Neil

    2016-02-01

    We extend the concept of 'Weather Value at Risk' - initially introduced to measure the economic risks resulting from current weather fluctuations - to describe and compare sectoral income risks from climate change. This is illustrated using the examples of wheat cultivation and summer tourism in (parts of) Sardinia. Based on climate scenario data from four different regional climate models we study the change in the risk of weather-related income losses between some reference (1971-2000) and some future (2041-2070) period. Results from both examples suggest an increase in weather-related risks of income losses due to climate change, which is somewhat more pronounced for summer tourism. Nevertheless, income from wheat cultivation is at much higher risk of weather-related losses than income from summer tourism, both under reference and future climatic conditions. A weather-induced loss of at least 5% - compared to the income associated with average reference weather conditions - shows a 40% (80%) probability of occurrence in the case of wheat cultivation, but only a 0.4% (16%) probability of occurrence in the case of summer tourism, given reference (future) climatic conditions. Whereas in the agricultural example increases in the weather-related income risks mainly result from an overall decrease in average wheat yields, the heightened risk in the tourism example stems mostly from a change in the weather-induced variability of tourism incomes. With the extended 'Weather Value at Risk' concept being able to capture both, impacts from changes in the mean and the variability of the climate, it is a powerful tool for presenting and disseminating the results of climate change impact assessments. Due to its flexibility, the concept can be applied to any economic sector and therefore provides a valuable tool for cross-sectoral comparisons of climate change impacts, but also for the assessment of the costs and benefits of adaptation measures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B

  1. ESTIMATING RISK TO CALIFORNIA ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FROM PROJECTED CLIMATE CHANGE

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sathaye, Jayant; Dale, Larry; Larsen, Peter; Fitts, Gary; Koy, Kevin; Lewis, Sarah; Lucena, Andre

    2011-06-22

    This report outlines the results of a study of the impact of climate change on the energy infrastructure of California and the San Francisco Bay region, including impacts on power plant generation; transmission line and substation capacity during heat spells; wildfires near transmission lines; sea level encroachment upon power plants, substations, and natural gas facilities; and peak electrical demand. Some end-of-century impacts were projected:Expected warming will decrease gas-fired generator efficiency. The maximum statewide coincident loss is projected at 10.3 gigawatts (with current power plant infrastructure and population), an increase of 6.2 percent over current temperature-induced losses. By the end of the century, electricity demand for almost all summer days is expected to exceed the current ninetieth percentile per-capita peak load. As much as 21 percent growth is expected in ninetieth percentile peak demand (per-capita, exclusive of population growth). When generator losses are included in the demand, the ninetieth percentile peaks may increase up to 25 percent. As the climate warms, California's peak supply capacity will need to grow faster than the population.Substation capacity is projected to decrease an average of 2.7 percent. A 5C (9F) air temperature increase (the average increase predicted for hot days in August) will diminish the capacity of a fully-loaded transmission line by an average of 7.5 percent.The potential exposure of transmission lines to wildfire is expected to increase with time. We have identified some lines whose probability of exposure to fire are expected to increase by as much as 40 percent. Up to 25 coastal power plants and 86 substations are at risk of flooding (or partial flooding) due to sea level rise.

  2. Managing climate change risks in rangeland systems [Chapter 15

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linda A. Joyce; Nadine A. Marshall

    2017-01-01

    The management of rangelands has long involved adapting to climate variability to ensure that economic enterprises remain viable and ecosystems sustainable; climate change brings the potential for change that surpasses the experience of humans within rangeland systems. Adaptation will require an intentionality to address the effects of climate change. Knowledge of...

  3. Climate risk screening tools and their application: A guide to the guidance

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Traerup, S.; Olhoff, A.

    2011-07-01

    Climate risk screening is an integral part of efforts to ascertain current and future vulnerabilities and risks related to climate change. It is a prerequisite for identifying and designing adaptation measures, and an important element in the process of integrating, or mainstreaming, climate change adaptation into development project, planning and policy processes. There is an increasing demand and attention among national stakeholders in developing countries to take into account potential implications of climate variability and change for planning and prioritizing of development strategies and activities. Subsequently, there is a need for user friendly guidance on climate risk screening tools and their potentials for application that targets developing country stakeholders. This need is amplified by the sheer volume of climate change mainstreaming guidance documents and risk screening and assessment tools available and currently under development. Against this background, this paper sets out to provide potential users in developing countries, including project and programme developers and managers, with an informational entry point to climate risk screening tools. The emphasis in this report is on providing: 1) An overview of available climate risk screening and assessment tools along with indications of the tools available and relevant for specific purposes and contexts (Section 3). 2) Examples of application of climate risk screening and assessment tools along with links to further information (Section 4). Before turning to the respective sections on available climate risk screening tools and examples of their application, a delimitation of the tools included in this paper is included in Section 2. This section also provides a brief overview of how climate screening and related tools fit into decision making steps at various planning and decision making levels in conjunction with an outline of overall considerations to make when choosing a tool. The paper is

  4. Preliminary study on impact assessment of climate change on building risks induced by typhoons in Japan

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nishijima, Kazuyoshi; Maruyama, Takashi; Graf, Mathias

    The present paper investigates possible impacts of the climate change on building risks caused by typhoons. The inputs to this investigation are: (1) outcomes from the numerical simulations with a Global Climate Model (GCM) developed under the framework of the KAKUSHIN program, (2) statistics...... and the future climate subject to the climate change, whereas the other inputs are utilized to develop a model for structural performance of buildings. Taking basis in these models, changes of building risks under the climate change are investigated. The result shows that the building risks slightly decrease...... on building damage in the event of Typhoon Songda, and (3) numerical simulation of the wind field induced by the typhoon Songda with the JMA Non- Hydrostatic Model (JMA-NHM). The first input is utilized to develop two sets of probabilistic typhoon models; i.e. corresponding to the current climate...

  5. De la sècheresse aux pratiques agricoles… ou les pratiques agricoles, objet d’interface, entre climat et hommes…

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmed B. Veyrac-Ben

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Etudier les impacts environnementaux de la sècheresse dans un territoire agricole, c’est aussi, et surtout, s’interroger sur les pratiques des agriculteurs, et se demander en quoi des évènements tels que les sècheresses peuvent influencer les pratiques agricoles…A l’interface entre le milieu et les hommes, nous considérons donc les pratiques des agriculteurs comme un facteur d’évolution des milieux et des hommes. Notre étude des pratiques agricoles et de leurs impacts environnementaux, vue à travers le prisme de l’influence des sècheresses, cherche donc à comprendre la part et le rôle d’un facteur physique dans la mutation d’un territoire agricole.

  6. Comparative Risk Assessment to Inform Adaptation Priorities for the Natural Environment: Observations from the First UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iain Brown

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Risk assessment can potentially provide an objective framework to synthesise and prioritise climate change risks to inform adaptation policy. However, there are significant challenges in the application of comparative risk assessment procedures to climate change, particularly for the natural environment. These challenges are evaluated with particular reference to the first statutory Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA and evidence review procedures used to guide policy for the UK government. More progress was achieved on risk identification, screening and prioritisation compared to risk quantification. This was due to the inherent complexity and interdependence of ecological risks and their interaction with socio-economic drivers as well as a climate change. Robust strategies to manage risk were identified as those that coordinate organisational resources to enhance ecosystem resilience, and to accommodate inevitable change, rather than to meet specific species or habitats targets. The assessment also highlighted subjective and contextual components of risk appraisal including ethical issues regarding the level of human intervention in the natural environment and the proposed outcomes of any intervention. This suggests that goals for risk assessment need to be more clearly explicated and assumptions on tolerable risk declared as a primer for further dialogue on expectations for managed outcomes. Ecosystem-based adaptation may mean that traditional habitats and species conservation goals and existing regulatory frameworks no longer provide the best guide for long-term risk management thereby challenging the viability of some existing practices.

  7. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver......There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation...... to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...

  8. Profiles of Student Perceptions of School Climate: Relations with Risk Behaviors and Academic Outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, Kathan; Konold, Timothy; Cornell, Dewey

    2016-06-01

    School climate has been linked to a variety of positive student outcomes, but there may be important within-school differences among students in their experiences of school climate. This study examined within-school heterogeneity among 47,631 high school student ratings of their school climate through multilevel latent class modeling. Student profiles across 323 schools were generated on the basis of multiple indicators of school climate: disciplinary structure, academic expectations, student willingness to seek help, respect for students, affective and cognitive engagement, prevalence of teasing and bullying, general victimization, bullying victimization, and bullying perpetration. Analyses identified four meaningfully different student profile types that were labeled positive climate, medium climate-low bullying, medium climate-high bullying, and negative climate. Contrasts among these profile types on external criteria revealed meaningful differences for race, grade-level, parent education level, educational aspirations, and frequency of risk behaviors. © Society for Community Research and Action 2016.

  9. "Near-term" Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Risk Hedging in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michel, Gero; Tiampo, Kristy

    2014-05-01

    Competing with analytics - Can the insurance market take advantage of seasonal or "near-term" forecasting and temporal changes in risk? Natural perils (re)insurance has been based on models following climatology i.e. the long-term "historical" average. This is opposed to considering the "near-term" and forecasting hazard and risk for the seasons or years to come. Variability and short-term changes in risk are deemed abundant for almost all perils. In addition to hydrometeorological perils whose changes are vastly discussed, earthquake activity might also change over various time-scales affected by earlier local (or even global) events, regional changes in the distribution of stresses and strains and more. Only recently has insurance risk modeling of (stochastic) hurricane-years or extratropical-storm-years started considering our ability to forecast climate variability herewith taking advantage of apparent correlations between climate indicators and the activity of storm events. Once some of these "near-term measures" were in the market, rating agencies and regulators swiftly adopted these concepts demanding companies to deploy a selection of more conservative "time-dependent" models. This was despite the fact that the ultimate effect of some of these measures on insurance risk was not well understood. Apparent short-term success over the last years in near-term seasonal hurricane forecasting was brought to a halt in 2013 when these models failed to forecast the exceptional shortage of hurricanes herewith contradicting an active-year forecast. The focus of earthquake forecasting has in addition been mostly on high rather than low temporal and regional activity despite the fact that avoiding losses does not by itself create a product. This presentation sheds light on new risk management concepts for over-regional and global (re)insurance portfolios that take advantage of forecasting changes in risk. The presentation focuses on the "upside" and on new opportunities

  10. National Security and the Accelerating Risks of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-05-01

    there would be too much. Over the coming decades, projected climate change likely will cause Australia, portions of India , and much of inland China...significant potential water , food, and energy insecurity; political instability; extreme weather events; and other manifestations of climate change ...production, and human sustenance. In light of projected climate change , stresses on the water -food-energy nexus are a mounting security concern

  11. Impacts of Climate Change on Dengue Risk in Brazil

    OpenAIRE

    Tatiane Menezes; Paula Pereda; Denisard Alves

    2014-01-01

    Climate has relevant impacts on human health. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), climate-sensitive health problems kill millions of people every year and undermine the physical and psychological health of millions (WHO, 2012). In the particular case of vector-borne diseases, climate conditions assure the vectors' survival and reproduction and, consequently, the transmission of the diseases (Kelly-Hope and Thomson, 2008). Increases in heat, precipitation, and humidity can allow ...

  12. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

    2015-12-04

    Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

  13. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akerlof, Karen L.; Delamater, Paul L.; Boules, Caroline R.; Upperman, Crystal R.; Mitchell, Clifford S.

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages. PMID:26690184

  14. Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karen L. Akerlof

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126. We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

  15. Climate Influence on Emerging Risk Areas for Rift Valley Fever Epidemics in Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mweya, Clement N; Mboera, Leonard E G; Kimera, Sharadhuli I

    2017-07-01

    Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a climate-related arboviral infection of animals and humans. Climate is thought to represent a threat toward emerging risk areas for RVF epidemics globally. The objective of this study was to evaluate influence of climate on distribution of suitable breeding habitats for Culex pipiens complex, potential mosquito vector responsible for transmission and distribution of disease epidemics risk areas in Tanzania. We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distribution of disease risk areas based on vectors and disease co-occurrence data approach. Climatic variables for the current and future scenarios were used as model inputs. Changes in mosquito vectors' habitat suitability in relation to disease risk areas were estimated. We used partial receiver operating characteristic and the area under the curves approach to evaluate model predictive performance and significance. Habitat suitability for Cx. pipiens complex indicated broad-scale potential for change and shift in the distribution of the vectors and disease for both 2020 and 2050 climatic scenarios. Risk areas indicated more intensification in the areas surrounding Lake Victoria and northeastern part of the country through 2050 climate scenario. Models show higher probability of emerging risk areas spreading toward the western parts of Tanzania from northeastern areas and decrease in the southern part of the country. Results presented here identified sites for consideration to guide surveillance and control interventions to reduce risk of RVF disease epidemics in Tanzania. A collaborative approach is recommended to develop and adapt climate-related disease control and prevention strategies.

  16. Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

    2014-12-01

    Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

  17. Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

    2017-01-01

    Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

  18. Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guis, Helene; Caminade, Cyril; Calvete, Carlos; Morse, Andrew P.; Tran, Annelise; Baylis, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases. PMID:21697167

  19. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-13

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  20. Assessing climate change risks to the natural environment to facilitate cross-sectoral adaptation policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Iain

    2018-06-01

    Climate change policy requires prioritization of adaptation actions across many diverse issues. The policy agenda for the natural environment includes not only biodiversity, soils and water, but also associated human benefits through agriculture, forestry, water resources, hazard alleviation, climate regulation and amenity value. To address this broad agenda, the use of comparative risk assessment is investigated with reference to statutory requirements of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. Risk prioritization was defined by current adaptation progress relative to risk magnitude and implementation lead times. Use of an ecosystem approach provided insights into risk interactions, but challenges remain in quantifying ecosystem services. For all risks, indirect effects and potential systemic risks were identified from land-use change, responding to both climate and socio-economic drivers, and causing increased competition for land and water resources. Adaptation strategies enhancing natural ecosystem resilience can buffer risks and sustain ecosystem services but require improved cross-sectoral coordination and recognition of dynamic change. To facilitate this, risk assessments need to be reflexive and explicitly assess decision outcomes contingent on their riskiness and adaptability, including required levels of human intervention, influence of uncertainty and ethical dimensions. More national-scale information is also required on adaptation occurring in practice and its efficacy in moderating risks. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  1. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morueta-Holme, Naia; Fløjgaard, Camilla; Svenning, Jens-Christian

    2010-04-29

    Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus), which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be highly vulnerable to a warming climate and highlight the fact that assisted migration has

  2. Climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Naia Morueta-Holme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used species distribution modeling to assess the climate sensitivity, climate change risks and conservation implications for a threatened small-range mammal species, the Iberian desman (Galemys pyrenaicus, which is a phylogenetically isolated insectivore endemic to south-western Europe. Atlas data on the distribution of G. pyrenaicus was linked to data on climate, topography and human impact using two species distribution modeling algorithms to test hypotheses on the factors that determine the range for this species. Predictive models were developed and projected onto climate scenarios for 2070-2099 to assess climate change risks and conservation possibilities. Mean summer temperature and water balance appeared to be the main factors influencing the distribution of G. pyrenaicus. Climate change was predicted to result in significant reductions of the species' range. However, the severity of these reductions was highly dependent on which predictor was the most important limiting factor. Notably, if mean summer temperature is the main range determinant, G. pyrenaicus is at risk of near total extinction in Spain under the most severe climate change scenario. The range projections for Europe indicate that assisted migration may be a possible long-term conservation strategy for G. pyrenaicus in the face of global warming. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Climate change clearly poses a severe threat to this illustrative endemic species. Our findings confirm that endemic species can be

  3. Adaptation to the climatic change: the propositions of the ONERC; Adaptation au changement climatique: les propositions de l'ONERC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2006-06-15

    This document aims to be compromise step between the scientific analysis and the implementing of an action plan. It presents four main objectives: actions for the public security and safety,reduction of the inequalities facing the risks, limitation of the costs and preservation of the natural patrimony. It proposes a synthesis and actions principles in nine axis, applicable to every topics and studied geographical levels. (A.L.B.)

  4. Communicating Climate Change Risks for Adaptation in Coastal ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Strengthening Livelihood Security and Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in Chilika Lagoon, India. Chilika is a brackish coastal lagoon and biodiversity hotspot situated in the eastern state of Orissa, India. View moreStrengthening Livelihood Security and Adapting to Climate Uncertainty in Chilika Lagoon, India ...

  5. Mental health risk and resilience among climate scientists

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clayton, Susan

    2018-04-01

    Awareness of the threats to mental health posed by climate change leads to questions about the potential impacts on climate scientists because they are immersed in depressing information and may face apathy, denial and even hostility from others. But they also have sources of resilience.

  6. Modeling current climate conditions for forest pest risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frank H. Koch; John W. Coulston

    2010-01-01

    Current information on broad-scale climatic conditions is essential for assessing potential distribution of forest pests. At present, sophisticated spatial interpolation approaches such as the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) are used to create high-resolution climatic data sets. Unfortunately, these data sets are based on 30-year...

  7. Climate risk management information, sources and responses in a pastoral region in East Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony Egeru

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Pastoralists in East Africa face a range of stressors, climate variability and change being one of them. Effective climate risk management involves managing the full range of variability and balancing hazard management with efforts to capitalise on opportunity; climate risk management information is central in this process. In this study, pastoralists’ perceptions of climate change, climate risk management information types, sources and attendant responses in a pastoral region in East Africa are examined. Through a multi-stage sampling process, a total of 198 heads of households in three districts were selected and interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire. In addition, 29 focus group discussions and 10 key informant interviews were conducted to generate qualitative information to supplement survey data. Descriptive and thematic analysis were utilised in summarizing the data. Ninety-nine percent of the pastoralists noted that the climate had changed evidenced by high but erratic rainfall, occurrence of floods and variation in rainfall onset and cessation among other indicators. This change in climate had led to emergence of ‘new’ livestock and crop diseases, crop failure and low yields leading to frequent food shortages, water shortages, poor market access, and variation in pasture availability among other effects. Climate risk management information was received from multiple sources including; radio, diviners, community meetings, shrine elders, humanitarian agencies, and Uganda People’s defence forces (UPDF. Community meetings were however perceived as most accessible, reliable and dependable sources of information. Shifting livestock to dry season grazing and watering areas, selling firewood and charcoal, seeking for military escorts to grazing areas, purchasing veterinary drugs, shifting livestock to disease ‘free’ areas, and performing rituals (depending on the perceived risk constituted a set of responses undertaken in

  8. Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Halsnæs, Kirsten

    2012-01-01

    Climate change is likely to affect the water cycle by influencing the precipitation patterns. It is important to integrate the anticipated changes into the design of urban drainage in response to the increased risk level in cities. This paper presents a pluvial flood risk assessment framework...... to identify and assess adaptation options in the urban context. An integrated approach is adopted by incorporating climate change impact assessment, flood inundation modeling, economic tool, and risk assessment, hereby developing a step-by-step process for cost-benefit assessment of climate change adaptation...

  9. Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation using an economic pluvial flood risk framework

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    It is anticipated that climate change is likely to lead to an increasing risk level of flooding in cities in northern Europe. One challenging question is how to best address the increasing flood risk and assess the costs and benefits of adapting to such changes. We established an integrated...... approach for identification and assessment of climate change adaptation options by incorporating climate change impacts, flood inundation modelling, economic tool and risk assessment and management. The framework is further extended and adapted by embedding a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate the total...

  10. Prevent the risk of climate change by taxing fossil fuels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Martin, Y.

    1992-01-01

    Of all the greenhouse gases, it is emissions of CO 2 which most urgently require reduction. On the one hand, given the very long lifetime of this gas, its emissions are almost irreversible in character. On the other hand, the measures to be taken concern technological choices, and choices in matters of planning and land use, which are not easily reversible either. It would be very costly, later on, to go back on decisions we make in the coming years without taking into account the risk of climate change. We will only be able to stabilize the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere if we are able to reduce present emissions by 60 per cent. The challenge to humanity is considerable, since this reduction in emissions has to be achieved despite the forecast doubling of the world's population. We must organize ourselves both to stabilize the world's forests (reforestation in certain regions compensating for the inevitable deforestation elsewhere), and to reduce by 25 per cent the average consumption of fossil fuel per inhabitant. Such a radical reorientation of our habits in the consumption of fossil energy does not seem to me technically unreachable, and it will not cause widespread ruin if we manage to optimize its organization. Preventive work will only be effective if it is made on a planetary scale. It will only be undertaken if we are able to share the burden fairly between the various countries; and it will not be ruinous if we manage to decentralize necessary initiatives, so that the least costly methods are undertaken everywhere from the outset. (author)

  11. Communicating climate information for decision-making “Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa”

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The USAID-funded project presented here was designed to build capacity among the SADC member states in understanding information on climate impact and risk in the context of early-warning strategies and planning. The handbook was produced by a team...

  12. Combining Climate Scenarios and Risk Management Approach—A Finnish Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riitta Molarius

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Climate change impacts on nature and the environment have been widely discussed and studied. Traditionally, a company’s continuity management is based on risk analysis. There are also attempts to implement scenario-based methods in the risk management procedures of companies. For industrial decision makers, it is vital to acknowledge the impacts of climate change with regards to their adaptation strategies. However, a scenario-based approach is not always the most effective way to analyze these risks. This paper investigates the integration of scenario and risk-based methods for a company’s adaptation planning. It considers the uncertainties of the climate change scenarios and the recognized risks as well as suitable adaptation strategies. The paper presents the results of climate risk analysis prepared for two Finnish hydropower plants. The introduced method was first piloted in 2008 and then again in 2015. The update of the analysis pointed out that at the company level, the climate risks and other risks originating from governmental or political decisions form an intertwined wholeness where the origin of the risk is difficult to outline. It seems that, from the business point of view, the main adaptation strategies suggested by the integrated risk and scenarios approach are those that support buying “safety margins” in new investments and reducing decision time horizons. Both of these adaptation strategies provide an advantage in the circumstances where also political decisions and societal changes have a great effect on decision making.

  13. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Suchithra Naish

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall, socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  14. Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naish, Suchithra; Mengersen, Kerrie; Hu, Wenbiao; Tong, Shilu

    2013-01-01

    Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

  15. Climate and weather risk in natural resource models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Nathaniel Henry

    This work, consisting of three manuscripts, addresses natural resource management under risk due to variation in climate and weather. In three distinct but theoretically related applications, I quantify the role of natural resources in stabilizing economic outcomes. In Manuscript 1, we address policy designed to effect the risk of cyanobacteria blooms in a drinking water reservoir through watershed wide policy. Combining a hydrologic and economic model for a watershed in Rhode Island, we solve for the efficient allocation of best management practices (BMPs) on livestock pastures to meet a monthly risk-based as well as mean-based water quality objective. In order to solve for the efficient allocations of nutrient control effort, we optimize a probabilistically constrained integer-programming problem representing the choices made on each farm and the resultant conditions that support cyanobacteria blooms. In doing so, we employ a genetic algorithm (GA). We hypothesize that management based on controlling the upper tail of the probability distribution of phosphorus loading implies different efficient management actions as compared to controlling mean loading. We find a shift to more intense effort on fewer acres when a probabilistic objective is specified with cost savings of meeting risk levels of up to 25% over mean loading based policies. Additionally, we illustrate the relative cost effectiveness of various policies designed to meet this risk-based objective. Rainfall and the subsequent overland runoff is the source of transportation of nutrients to a receiving water body, with larger amounts of phosphorus moving in more intense rainfall events. We highlight the importance of this transportation mechanism by comparing policies under climate change scenarios, where the intensity of rainfall is projected to increase and the time series process of rainfall to change. In Manuscript 2, we introduce a new economic groundwater model that incorporates the gradual shift

  16. Assessing Climate Change Risks: Lessons Learned from DoD Installations in the Southwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-08-01

    adaptation strategies that are aligned with DoD facilities management . Our overall guidance for climate decision-making is consistent with our original ...process of integrating climate change risk 46 management into existing business processes. With a few exceptions, the sharing of practical...Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities and is offered as a collection of resources that DoD managers can use to plan and

  17. A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shabani, Farzin; Shafapour Tehrany, Mahyat; Solhjouy-Fard, Samaneh; Kumar, Lalit

    2018-01-01

    Aedes albopictus , the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus ? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i) regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii) regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF), together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers), to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC) using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs), Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically, according

  18. A comparative modeling study on non-climatic and climatic risk assessment on Asian Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Farzin Shabani

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger Mosquito, vector of Chikungunya, Dengue Fever and Zika viruses, has proven its hardy adaptability in expansion from its natural Asian, forest edge, tree hole habitat on the back of international trade transportation, re-establishing in temperate urban surrounds, in a range of water receptacles and semi-enclosures of organic matter. Conventional aerial spray mosquito vector controls focus on wetland and stagnant water expanses, proven to miss the protected hollows and crevices favoured by Ae. albopictus. New control or eradication strategies are thus essential, particular in light of potential expansions in the southeastern and eastern USA. Successful regional vector control strategies require risk level analysis. Should strategies prioritize regions with non-climatic or climatic suitability parameters for Ae. albopictus? Our study used current Ae. albopictus distribution data to develop two independent models: (i regions with suitable non-climatic factors, and (ii regions with suitable climate for Ae. albopictus in southeastern USA. Non-climatic model processing used Evidential Belief Function (EBF, together with six geographical conditioning factors (raster data layers, to establish the probability index. Validation of the analysis results was estimated with area under the curve (AUC using Ae. albopictus presence data. Climatic modeling was based on two General Circulation Models (GCMs, Miroc3.2 and CSIRO-MK30 running the RCP 8.5 scenario in MaxEnt software. EBF non-climatic model results achieved a 0.70 prediction rate and 0.73 success rate, confirming suitability of the study site regions for Ae. albopictus establishment. The climatic model results showed the best-fit model comprised Coldest Quarter Mean Temp, Precipitation of Wettest Quarter and Driest Quarter Precipitation factors with mean AUC value of 0.86. Both GCMs showed that the whole study site is highly suitable and will remain suitable climatically

  19. University of all knowledge. Nature and risks. Volume 6; Universite de tous les savoirs. La nature et les risques. Volume 6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michaud, Y.

    2002-02-01

    This small book belongs to a collection of six volumes which synthesizes the content of a cycle of 366 conferences about sciences, techniques, intellectual productions, cultures etc, given each day of the year 2000 by specialists of the relevant domains. This 6. volume is devoted to todays and tomorrows stakes of nature: bio-diversity; co-evolution; molecular dialogue of symbioses; the vegetal chemical factory; the appropriation of the living matter: from biology to the social debate; the ethical stakes of genetics; todays feeding and risk perception; tomorrows feeding; safety of food products: prevention - surveillance - crisis; nature and agriculture; function and response of plant leaves to aggressions and herbicides; fishes and men (resources management); plants, molecules and drugs; the future of fossil fuels; the future of the environment; water pollution and cleansing; wastes: how the eliminate, re-valorize or avoid them; soils pollution; the ambiguousness of sustainable development policies; liability, risk and precaution. (J.S.)

  20. A comparative review of multi-risk modelling methodologies for climate change adaptation in mountain regions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terzi, Stefano; Torresan, Silvia; Schneiderbauer, Stefan

    2017-04-01

    Keywords: Climate change, mountain regions, multi-risk assessment, climate change adaptation. Climate change has already led to a wide range of impacts on the environment, the economy and society. Adaptation actions are needed to cope with the impacts that have already occurred (e.g. storms, glaciers melting, floods, droughts) and to prepare for future scenarios of climate change. Mountain environment is particularly vulnerable to the climate changes due to its exposure to recent climate warming (e.g. water regime changes, thawing of permafrost) and due to the high degree of specialization of both natural and human systems (e.g. alpine species, valley population density, tourism-based economy). As a consequence, the mountain local governments are encouraged to undertake territorial governance policies to climate change, considering multi-risks and opportunities for the mountain economy and identifying the best portfolio of adaptation strategies. This study aims to provide a literature review of available qualitative and quantitative tools, methodological guidelines and best practices to conduct multi-risk assessments in the mountain environment within the context of climate change. We analyzed multi-risk modelling and assessment methods applied in alpine regions (e.g. event trees, Bayesian Networks, Agent Based Models) in order to identify key concepts (exposure, resilience, vulnerability, risk, adaptive capacity), climatic drivers, cause-effect relationships and socio-ecological systems to be integrated in a comprehensive framework. The main outcomes of the review, including a comparison of existing techniques based on different criteria (e.g. scale of analysis, targeted questions, level of complexity) and a snapshot of the developed multi-risk framework for climate change adaptation will be here presented and discussed.

  1. It's lonely at the top: Biodiversity at risk to loss from climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    John L. Koprowski; Sandra L. Doumas; Melissa J. Merrick; Brittany Oleson; Erin E. Posthumus; Timothy G. Jessen; R. Nathan Gwinn

    2013-01-01

    Climate change is a serious immediate and long-term threat to wildlife species. State and federal agencies are working with universities and non-government organizations to predict, plan for, and mitigate such uncertainties in the future. Endemic species may be particularly at-risk as climate-induced changes impact their limited geographic ranges. The Madrean...

  2. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  3. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaption policies

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wardekker, J.A.; de Jong, A.; van Bree, L.; Turkenburg, W.C.; van der Sluijs, J.P.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods: We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type

  4. When every drop of rain counts: Managing climate risks in the ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    “For a region where the majority of us are small-hold farmers who depend on crop production for ... The Climate Change Adaptation in Africa research and capacity ... Same district, in northern Tanzania's Kilimanjaro region, is another semi-arid area at risk from climate change. ... I have also bought a goat for milk production.

  5. How political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks: Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W.J.W.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Kunreuther, H; De Moel, H; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  6. Political affiliation affects adaptation to climate risks : Evidence from New York City

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Botzen, W. J Wouter; Michel-Kerjan, Erwann; Kunreuther, Howard; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen C J H

    2016-01-01

    Research reveals that liberals and conservatives in the United States diverge about their beliefs regarding climate change. We show empirically that political affiliation also matters with respect to climate related risks such as flooding from hurricanes. Our study is based on a survey conducted 6

  7. Developing a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Halimi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Summary: The strong relationship between climate and fascioliasis outbreaks enables the development of climate-based models to estimate the potential risk of fascioliasis outbreaks. This work aims to develop a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran using Ollerenshaw's fascioliasis risk index incorporating geographical information system (GIS. Using this index, a risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks for the entire country was developed. We determined that the country can be divided into 4 fascioliasis outbreak risk categories. Class 1, in which the Mt value is less than 100, includes more than 0.91 of the country's area. The climate in this class is not conducive to fascioliasis outbreaks in any month. Dryness and low temperature in the wet season (December to April are the key barriers against fascioliasis outbreaks in this class. The risk map developed based on climatic factors indicated that only 0.03 of the country's area, including Gilan province in the northern region of Iran, is highly suitable to fascioliasis outbreaks during September to January. The Mt value is greater than 500 in this class. Heavy rainfall in the summer and fall, especially in Rasht, Astara and Bandar Anzaly (≥1000 mm/year, creates more suitable breeding places for snail intermediate hosts. Keywords: Ollerenshaw fascioliasis risk index, Climate, Gilan province, Iran

  8. Risk communication, public engagement, and climate change: a role for emotions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roeser, Sabine

    2012-06-01

    This article discusses the potential role that emotions might play in enticing a lifestyle that diminishes climate change. Climate change is an important challenge for society. There is a growing consensus that climate change is due to our behavior, but few people are willing to significantly adapt their lifestyle. Empirical studies show that people lack a sense of urgency: they experience climate change as a problem that affects people in distant places and in a far future. Several scholars have claimed that emotions might be a necessary tool in communication about climate change. This article sketches a theoretical framework that supports this hypothesis, drawing on insights from the ethics of risk and the philosophy of emotions. It has been shown by various scholars that emotions are important determinants in risk perception. However, emotions are generally considered to be irrational states and are hence excluded from communication and political decision making about risky technologies and climate change, or they are used instrumentally to create support for a position. However, the literature on the ethics of risk shows that the dominant, technocratic approach to risk misses the normative-ethical dimension that is inherent to decisions about acceptable risk. Emotion research shows that emotions are necessary for practical and moral decision making. These insights can be applied to communication about climate change. Emotions are necessary for understanding the moral impact of the risks of climate change, and they also paradigmatically provide for motivation. Emotions might be the missing link in effective communication about climate change. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

  9. Climate Risk and Production Shocks: Using Index Insurance to Link Climate Science to Policy for Sustainable Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCarney, G. R.; Osgood, D. E.

    2011-12-01

    Smallholder farmers in developing countries are often severely impacted by droughts and other climate related events. However, agricultural insurance programs are largely unavailable in lower-income countries because of limitations in traditional loss-based indemnity insurance. As a result, it is often the case that farmers who are the most vulnerable to climate shocks lack access to the insurance tools that could help to reduce their production risk. Index insurance, a recent financial innovation, has the potential to increase access to insurance for smallholder farmers (Barrett et al. 2007). Index insurance allows farmers to insure their production risk based on a weather index (such as total seasonal rainfall) rather than on crop yields. The use of a weather index addresses many of the perverse incentive problems found in traditional crop insurance, and greatly reduces the costs of insuring smallholder farmers. The trade-off in index insurance, however, is limited accuracy in calibrating payouts to actual losses, a phenomenon commonly known as basis risk. While index insurance has promise as a risk-smoothing instrument, many argue it has greater promise as a mechanism for improving access to credit for smallholder farmers in developing countries (e.g. Barnett, Barrett & Skees 2008). In these areas, farmers are often fully exposed to climate shocks, which greatly affect their willingness to borrow. By smoothing the uncertainty in climate shocks, insurance may allow farmers to take credit for productive risks. There has been much discussion as to the optimal strategy for combining index insurance with credit, specifically if the financial institutions or the individual farmers themselves should hold the insurance policy. Many existing insurance implementations insure the farmer directly. However, since a weather index is a proxy for yield loss based on regional data, there is basis risk due to uninsured idiosyncratic differences between farmers. As a response to

  10. Les aciers inoxydables dans les fixations

    CERN Document Server

    CETIM

    2010-01-01

    Cet ouvrage, qui fait la synthèse de plusieurs travaux menés par le Cetim, propose une vue d'ensemble sur les aciers inoxydables utilisés pour les fixations. Au sommaire : les normes EN, ISO et ATSM qui s'y rapportent , les désignations symboliques , les nuances et caractéristiques mécaniques , les différentes formes de corrosion, les méthodes pour les détecter , les règles du métier , les mises en oeuvre. L'ouvrage comprend plusieurs fiches matériaux et des tableaux qui présentent les équivalences entre les désignations.

  11. Coastal cities at risk in the Philippines: Investing in climate and ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    An overview of the current disaster management plans and programs in the ... the resilience of the most vulnerable populations to climate-related disaster risks. ... Adaptation strategies for two Colombian cities were discussed at ADAPTO's ...

  12. Being Prepared for Climate Change: A Workbook for Developing Risk-Based Adaptation Plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    This workbook is a guide for environmental professionals to construct a climate change adaptation plan based on identifying risks and their consequences. It incorporates watershed management, vulnerability assessments and action planning.

  13. Climate Change Risk Management Consulting: The opportunity for an independent business practice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciccozzi, R.

    2009-04-01

    The Paper outlines the main questions to be addressed with reference to the actual demand of climate change risk management consulting, in the financial services. Moreover, the Project shall also try to investigate if the Catastrophe Modelling Industry can start and manage a business practice specialised on climate change risk exposures. In this context, the Paper aims at testing the possibility to build a sound business case, based upon typical MBA course analysis tools, such as PEST(LE), SWOT, etc. Specific references to the tools to be used and to other contribution from academic literature and general documentation are also discussed in the body of the Paper and listed at the end. The analysis shall also focus on the core competencies required for an independent climate change risk management consulting business practice, with the purpose to outline a valid definition of how to achieve competitive advantage in climate change risk management consulting.

  14. Climate Risk and Vulnerability: A Handbook for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, C

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available and variability. It presents a selection of information, translated to communicate climate change processes, key existing and emerging trends, impacts and the possible measures that could be taken to reduce these impacts....

  15. Climate change beliefs, risk perceptions, and adaptation behavior among Midwestern U.S. crop farmers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amber Saylor Mase

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Global climate change presents unique challenges to the resilience of United States agriculture, and farmers and advisors must utilize effective adaptation strategies to be both economically and environmentally sustainable. This study addresses Midwestern U.S. crop farmers’ beliefs about climate change, perceived risks from weather and climate, and attitudes toward adaptation that influence their decisions to adopt adaptation strategies. Analyzing a 2012 survey of nearly 5000 corn farmers across 22 Midwestern U.S. Watersheds, we investigate the most common weather and climate risk management strategies, including purchasing additional crop insurance, implementing conservation practices, and adding new technology. U.S. farmers’ belief in anthropogenic climate change, perceptions of changing weather patterns, climate risks to their farm and attitudes toward adapting are analyzed. Farmers’ perceptions of risk to their own farm, attitudes toward innovation and adaptation attitudes were the most important determinants of adaptation. This study highlights the critical role of risk perceptions in adaptation attitudes as well as behaviors among agriculturalists. Finally, we discuss how these findings could be applied to increase uptake of adaptation strategies and thus resilience of U.S. agriculture to a changing climate.

  16. Risk benefits of climate-friendly energy supply options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hirschberg, S.; Burgherr, P.

    2003-01-01

    One of the central goals of sustainable development is the reduction of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. This is needed in order to prevent the anticipated climate change, and the potentially serious consequences for human beings and the environment. Energy supply systems constitute the dominant contributors to GHG emissions. This paper examines three illustrative emission scenarios for world-wide energy supply in the 21 st Century. These scenarios, including the associated GHG and major pollutant emissions, were chosen from a set established by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Using the emissions as a starting point, and based on recent findings concerning the impact on the environment and the financial costs resulting from global climate change on the one hand, and regional air pollution on the other hand, the present work provides estimates of the scenario-dependent, world-wide cumulative damage. The fossil-intensive reference scenario leads to overall damages which correspond to very substantial losses in Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and which widely exceed the damages caused by the scenarios reflecting climate-friendly policies. Generally, the somewhat speculative estimates of the GHG-specific damages are much less significant than damages to human health and the environment caused by the major air pollutants. This means that the secondary benefits of climate-friendly, energy-supply options, i.e. those which avoid the impacts due to air pollution, alone justify strategies protecting the climate. (author)

  17. Energy use and overheating risk of Swedish multi-storey residential buildings under different climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dodoo, Ambrose; Gustavsson, Leif

    2016-01-01

    In this study, the extent to which different climate scenarios influence overheating risk, energy use and peak loads for space conditioning of district heated multi-storey buildings in Sweden are explored. Furthermore, the effectiveness of different overheating control measures and the implications of different electricity supply options for space cooling and ventilation are investigated. The analysis is based on buildings with different architectural and energy efficiency configurations including a prefab concrete-frame, a massive timber-frame and a light timber-frame building. Thermal performance of the buildings under low and high Representative Concentration Pathway climate scenarios for 2050–2059 and 2090–2099 are analysed and compared to that under historical climate of 1961–1990 and recent climate of 1996–2005. The study is based on a bottom-up methodology and includes detailed hour-by-hour energy balance and systems analyses. The results show significant changes in the buildings’ thermal performance under the future climate scenarios, relative to the historical and recent climates. Heating demand decreased significantly while cooling demand and overheating risk increased considerably with the future climate scenarios, for all buildings. In contrast to the cooling demand, the relative changes in heating demand of the buildings under the future climate scenarios are somewhat similar. The changes in the space conditioning demands and overheating risk vary for the buildings. Overheating risk was found to be slightly higher for the massive-frame building and slightly lower for the light-frame building. - Highlights: • We analysed thermal performance of buildings under different climate scenarios. • Our analysis is based on historical, recent and projected future climate datasets. • The buildings' thermal performance changed notably under future climate scenarios. • The extent of the changes is influenced by the buildings' energy efficiency

  18. Comparison and Evaluation of Global Scale Studies of Vulnerability and Risks to Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muccione, Veruska; Allen, Simon K.; Huggel, Christian; Birkmann, Joern

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the present and future distribution of different climate change impacts and vulnerability to climate change is a central subject in the context of climate justice and international climate policy. Commonly, it is claimed that poor countries that contributed little to anthropogenic climate change are those most affected and most vulnerable to climate change. Such statements are backed by a number of global-scale vulnerability studies, which identified poor countries as most vulnerable. However, some studies have challenged this view, likewise highlighting the high vulnerability of richer countries. Overall, no consensus has been reached so far about which concept of vulnerability should be applied and what type of indicators should be considered. Furthermore, there is little agreement which specific countries are most vulnerable. This is a major concern in view of the need to inform international climate policy, all the more if such assessments should contribute to allocate climate adaptation funds as was invoked at some instances. We argue that next to the analysis of who is most vulnerable, it is also important to better understand and compare different vulnerability profiles assessed in present global studies. We perform a systematic literature review of global vulnerability assessments with the scope to highlight vulnerability distribution patterns. We then compare these distributions with global risk distributions in line with revised and adopted concepts by most recent IPCC reports. It emerges that improved differentiation of key drivers of risk and the understanding of different vulnerability profiles are important contributions, which can inform future adaptation policies at the regional and national level. This can change the perspective on, and basis for distributional issues in view of climate burden share, and therefore can have implications for UNFCCC financing instruments (e.g. Green Climate Fund). However, in order to better compare

  19. Assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2010-04-01

    Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs.

  20. Assessing perceived health risks of climate change : Canadian public opinion 2008

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2008-03-01

    This paper discussed a survey conducted to evaluate the awareness, knowledge, attitudes, and behaviours of Canadians in relation to climatic change. A total of 1600 telephone surveys were conducted with a broad range of age groups. The study showed that climate change is considered by many Canadians to pose a significant threat at both local and global levels. Evidence of climate change has been noted in many communities. However, relatively few Canadians understand how climate change may impact human health. While many Canadians associated climatic change with air pollution hazards and ozone depletion, most Canadians were not aware of the potential negative health impacts related to changes in disease vectors, extreme weather events, and coastal flooding. The strongest awareness and concern about health impacts were expressed by Canadians concerned about global warming. Individuals with chronic health conditions were more likely to be attuned to the potential health impacts of climatic change. Seniors viewed climate change as a longer term problem. Only 10 per cent of Canadians viewed global warming as a major health risk. Sixty-nine per cent of Canadians believed that global warming was happening, while 63 per cent attributed climate change to human activity. Nearly half of all respondents believed that an extreme weather disaster would affect their community during the course of their lifetime. The report suggested that marketing or communications campaigns should build public awareness of the health risks associated with direct or proximal environmental risks. Information about health risks should be specific, and communications should be tailored to age cohorts. Television and print media should be used to build awareness of the health risks of climate change. Provincial concerns related to climatic change were also outlined. tabs., figs

  1. Risk perceptions, general environmental beliefs, and willingness to address climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Connor, R.E.; Bord, R.J.; Fisher, A.

    1999-01-01

    The research reported here examines the relationship between risk perceptions and willingness to address climate change. The data are a national sample of 1,225 mail surveys that include measures of risk perceptions and knowledge tied to climate change, support for voluntary and government actions to address the problem, general environmental beliefs, and demographic variables. Risk perceptions matter in predicting behavior intentions. Risk perceptions are not a surrogate for general environmental beliefs, but have their own power to account for behavioral intentions. There are four secondary conclusions. First, behavioral intentions regarding climate change are complex and intriguing. People are neither nonbelievers who will take no initiatives themselves and oppose all government efforts, nor are they believers who promise both to make personal efforts and to vote for every government proposal that promises to address climate change. Second, there are separate demographic sources for voluntary actions compared with voting intentions. Third, recognizing the causes of global warming is a powerful predictor of behavioral intentions independent from believing that climate change will happen and have bad consequences. Finally, the success of the risk perception variables to account for behavioral intentions should encourage greater attention to risk perceptions as independent variables. Risk perceptions and knowledge, however, share the stage with general environmental beliefs and demographic characteristics. Although related, risk perceptions, knowledge, and general environmental beliefs are somewhat independent predictors of behavioral intentions

  2. Risk Formulations versus Comprehensive Uncertainty Characterizations for Climate Extremes and their Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parish, E. S.; Ganguly, A. R.

    2009-12-01

    Climate extremes—defined inclusively as extreme hydro-metrological events and regional changes in climate patterns at decadal scales—and their impacts on natural, engineered or human systems, represent among the most significant knowledge-gaps in climate prediction and integrated assessments in a post-AR4 world. Risks and uncertainties are related but distinct concepts. However, their relevance to decision-support tools in the context of climate change is indisputable. The opportunities and challenges are presented with case studies developed for stakeholders and policy makers.

  3. Modeling the Near-Term Risk of Climate Uncertainty: Interdependencies among the U.S. States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lowry, T. S.; Backus, G.; Warren, D.

    2010-12-01

    Decisions made to address climate change must start with an understanding of the risk of an uncertain future to human systems, which in turn means understanding both the consequence as well as the probability of a climate induced impact occurring. In other words, addressing climate change is an exercise in risk-informed policy making, which implies that there is no single correct answer or even a way to be certain about a single answer; the uncertainty in future climate conditions will always be present and must be taken as a working-condition for decision making. In order to better understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions, this study estimates the impacts from responses to climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity by employing a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. Using the results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) as a proxy for climate uncertainty, changes in hydrology over the next 40 years were mapped and then modeled to determine the physical consequences on economic activity and to perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of the economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. The analysis determines industry-level effects, employment impacts at the state level, interstate population migration, consequences to personal income, and ramifications for the U.S. trade balance. The conclusions show that the average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. Further analysis shows that an increase in uncertainty raises this risk. This paper will present the methodology behind the approach, a summary of the underlying models, as well as the path forward for improving the approach.

  4. A quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Zhiqiang; Pan, Zhihua; An, Pingli; Zhang, Jingting; Zhang, Jun; Pan, Yuying; Huang, Lei; Zhao, Hui; Han, Guolin; Wu, Dong; Wang, Jialin; Fan, Dongliang; Gao, Lin; Pan, Xuebiao

    2018-01-01

    Climate change has greatly affected agriculture. Agriculture is facing increasing risks as its sensitivity and vulnerability to climate change. Scientific assessment of climate change-induced agricultural risks could help to actively deal with climate change and ensure food security. However, quantitative assessment of risk is a difficult issue. Here, based on the IPCC assessment reports, a quantitative method for risk assessment of agriculture due to climate change is proposed. Risk is described as the product of the degree of loss and its probability of occurrence. The degree of loss can be expressed by the yield change amplitude. The probability of occurrence can be calculated by the new concept of climate change effect-accumulated frequency (CCEAF). Specific steps of this assessment method are suggested. This method is determined feasible and practical by using the spring wheat in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongolia as a test example. The results show that the fluctuation of spring wheat yield increased with the warming and drying climatic trend in Wuchuan County. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 3.5 and 64.6%, respectively, for the temperature maximum increase 88.3%, and its risk was 2.2%. The maximum yield decrease and its probability were 14.1 and 56.1%, respectively, for the precipitation maximum decrease 35.2%, and its risk was 7.9%. For the comprehensive impacts of temperature and precipitation, the maximum yield decrease and its probability were 17.6 and 53.4%, respectively, and its risk increased to 9.4%. If we do not adopt appropriate adaptation strategies, the degree of loss from the negative impacts of multiclimatic factors and its probability of occurrence will both increase accordingly, and the risk will also grow obviously.

  5. Selenium deficiency risk predicted to increase under future climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Gerrad D; Droz, Boris; Greve, Peter; Gottschalk, Pia; Poffet, Deyan; McGrath, Steve P; Seneviratne, Sonia I; Smith, Pete; Winkel, Lenny H E

    2017-03-14

    Deficiencies of micronutrients, including essential trace elements, affect up to 3 billion people worldwide. The dietary availability of trace elements is determined largely by their soil concentrations. Until now, the mechanisms governing soil concentrations have been evaluated in small-scale studies, which identify soil physicochemical properties as governing variables. However, global concentrations of trace elements and the factors controlling their distributions are virtually unknown. We used 33,241 soil data points to model recent (1980-1999) global distributions of Selenium (Se), an essential trace element that is required for humans. Worldwide, up to one in seven people have been estimated to have low dietary Se intake. Contrary to small-scale studies, soil Se concentrations were dominated by climate-soil interactions. Using moderate climate-change scenarios for 2080-2099, we predicted that changes in climate and soil organic carbon content will lead to overall decreased soil Se concentrations, particularly in agricultural areas; these decreases could increase the prevalence of Se deficiency. The importance of climate-soil interactions to Se distributions suggests that other trace elements with similar retention mechanisms will be similarly affected by climate change.

  6. Unraveling the link between managerial risk-taking and innovation: The mediating role of a risk-taking climate

    OpenAIRE

    García-Granero , Ana; Llopis , Óscar; Fernández-Mesa , Anabel; Alegre , Joaquín

    2015-01-01

    International audience; Scholars have proposed that taking risks in organizations is important for explaining innovation performance. Scholars traditionally have analyzed this link from two unconnected perspectives. From a managerial perspective, entrepreneurial orientation and leadership theories have been used to explain the positive relation between risk taking and innovation. From an employee perspective, creativity theory suggests that a risk-taking climate helps to explain innovative be...

  7. Life history and spatial traits predict extinction risk due to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearson, Richard G.; Stanton, Jessica C.; Shoemaker, Kevin T.; Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E.; Ersts, Peter J.; Horning, Ned; Fordham, Damien A.; Raxworthy, Christopher J.; Ryu, Hae Yeong; McNees, Jason; Akçakaya, H. Reşit

    2014-03-01

    There is an urgent need to develop effective vulnerability assessments for evaluating the conservation status of species in a changing climate. Several new assessment approaches have been proposed for evaluating the vulnerability of species to climate change based on the expectation that established assessments such as the IUCN Red List need revising or superseding in light of the threat that climate change brings. However, although previous studies have identified ecological and life history attributes that characterize declining species or those listed as threatened, no study so far has undertaken a quantitative analysis of the attributes that cause species to be at high risk of extinction specifically due to climate change. We developed a simulation approach based on generic life history types to show here that extinction risk due to climate change can be predicted using a mixture of spatial and demographic variables that can be measured in the present day without the need for complex forecasting models. Most of the variables we found to be important for predicting extinction risk, including occupied area and population size, are already used in species conservation assessments, indicating that present systems may be better able to identify species vulnerable to climate change than previously thought. Therefore, although climate change brings many new conservation challenges, we find that it may not be fundamentally different from other threats in terms of assessing extinction risks.

  8. Changes in Concurrent Risk of Warm and Dry Years under Impact of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, A.; Wiper, M.; Touma, D. E.; Ausín, M. C.; Diffenbaugh, N. S.

    2017-12-01

    Anthropogenic global warming has changed the nature and the risk of extreme climate phenomena. The changing concurrence of multiple climatic extremes (warm and dry years) may result in intensification of undesirable consequences for water resources, human and ecosystem health, and environmental equity. The present study assesses how global warming influences the probability that warm and dry years co-occur in a global scale. In the first step of the study a designed multivariate Mann-Kendall trend analysis is used to detect the areas in which the concurrence of warm and dry years has increased in the historical climate records and also climate models in the global scale. The next step investigates the concurrent risk of the extremes under dynamic nonstationary conditions. A fully generalized multivariate risk framework is designed to evolve through time under dynamic nonstationary conditions. In this methodology, Bayesian, dynamic copulas are developed to model the time-varying dependence structure between the two different climate extremes (warm and dry years). The results reveal an increasing trend in the concurrence risk of warm and dry years, which are in agreement with the multivariate trend analysis from historical and climate models. In addition to providing a novel quantification of the changing probability of compound extreme events, the results of this study can help decision makers develop short- and long-term strategies to prepare for climate stresses now and in the future.

  9. A Quantitative Climate-Match Score for Risk-Assessment Screening of Reptile and Amphibian Introductions

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Wilgen, Nicola J.; Roura-Pascual, Núria; Richardson, David M.

    2009-09-01

    Assessing climatic suitability provides a good preliminary estimate of the invasive potential of a species to inform risk assessment. We examined two approaches for bioclimatic modeling for 67 reptile and amphibian species introduced to California and Florida. First, we modeled the worldwide distribution of the biomes found in the introduced range to highlight similar areas worldwide from which invaders might arise. Second, we modeled potentially suitable environments for species based on climatic factors in their native ranges, using three sources of distribution data. Performance of the three datasets and both approaches were compared for each species. Climate match was positively correlated with species establishment success (maximum predicted suitability in the introduced range was more strongly correlated with establishment success than mean suitability). Data assembled from the Global Amphibian Assessment through NatureServe provided the most accurate models for amphibians, while ecoregion data compiled by the World Wide Fund for Nature yielded models which described reptile climatic suitability better than available point-locality data. We present three methods of assigning a climate-match score for use in risk assessment using both the mean and maximum climatic suitabilities. Managers may choose to use different methods depending on the stringency of the assessment and the available data, facilitating higher resolution and accuracy for herpetofaunal risk assessment. Climate-matching has inherent limitations and other factors pertaining to ecological interactions and life-history traits must also be considered for thorough risk assessment.

  10. Improving the interpretability of climate landscape metrics: An ecological risk analysis of Japan's Marine Protected Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García Molinos, Jorge; Takao, Shintaro; Kumagai, Naoki H; Poloczanska, Elvira S; Burrows, Michael T; Fujii, Masahiko; Yamano, Hiroya

    2017-10-01

    Conservation efforts strive to protect significant swaths of terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems from a range of threats. As climate change becomes an increasing concern, these efforts must take into account how resilient-protected spaces will be in the face of future drivers of change such as warming temperatures. Climate landscape metrics, which signal the spatial magnitude and direction of climate change, support a convenient initial assessment of potential threats to and opportunities within ecosystems to inform conservation and policy efforts where biological data are not available. However, inference of risk from purely physical climatic changes is difficult unless set in a meaningful ecological context. Here, we aim to establish this context using historical climatic variability, as a proxy for local adaptation by resident biota, to identify areas where current local climate conditions will remain extant and future regional climate analogues will emerge. This information is then related to the processes governing species' climate-driven range edge dynamics, differentiating changes in local climate conditions as promoters of species range contractions from those in neighbouring locations facilitating range expansions. We applied this approach to assess the future climatic stability and connectivity of Japanese waters and its network of marine protected areas (MPAs). We find 88% of Japanese waters transitioning to climates outside their historical variability bounds by 2035, resulting in large reductions in the amount of available climatic space potentially promoting widespread range contractions and expansions. Areas of high connectivity, where shifting climates converge, are present along sections of the coast facilitated by the strong latitudinal gradient of the Japanese archipelago and its ocean current system. While these areas overlap significantly with areas currently under significant anthropogenic pressures, they also include much of the MPA

  11. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P

    2016-10-20

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  12. A New Time-varying Concept of Risk in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarhadi, Ali; Ausín, María Concepción; Wiper, Michael P.

    2016-10-01

    In a changing climate arising from anthropogenic global warming, the nature of extreme climatic events is changing over time. Existing analytical stationary-based risk methods, however, assume multi-dimensional extreme climate phenomena will not significantly vary over time. To strengthen the reliability of infrastructure designs and the management of water systems in the changing environment, multidimensional stationary risk studies should be replaced with a new adaptive perspective. The results of a comparison indicate that current multi-dimensional stationary risk frameworks are no longer applicable to projecting the changing behaviour of multi-dimensional extreme climate processes. Using static stationary-based multivariate risk methods may lead to undesirable consequences in designing water system infrastructures. The static stationary concept should be replaced with a flexible multi-dimensional time-varying risk framework. The present study introduces a new multi-dimensional time-varying risk concept to be incorporated in updating infrastructure design strategies under changing environments arising from human-induced climate change. The proposed generalized time-varying risk concept can be applied for all stochastic multi-dimensional systems that are under the influence of changing environments.

  13. Stakes and modalities of the climatic risk covering; Enjeu et modalites de la couverture du risque climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Marteau, D

    2006-07-01

    Several econometric works show that climatic volatility is at the first rank of the risk factors in several economic sectors like energy, textile, agriculture and food, tourism, leisure, building industries etc. However, climate remains an underestimated economic factor for several reasons: lack of awareness about the comparative stakes of climate risks management and market risks management, difficulties in the measurement of climate risk exposure, weak knowledge of covering techniques for private contract and organized markets, and unsolved question of risk sharing between shareholders and managers. This document analyzes the sensitivity of companies with respect to climate risk and describes the 5 steps of implementation of a climate covering policy: risk exposure measurement, risk bearing or transfer decision, definition of the optimum covering profile, choice of markets and covering instruments, efficiency measurement. A practical example is shown with its related questions. (J.S.)

  14. Playing the odds: Climate change risks transform utility plans

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tennis, M.W. [Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge, MA (United States)

    1996-12-31

    Cost and uncertainty analyses conducted jointly by the Union of Concerned Scientists and World Resource Institute regarding climate change policy and regulations are presented in this paper. A utility model was developed to help determine whether action was required in the near term by the electric industry and policy makers to reduce carbon emissions. The cost and carbon dioxide emissions resulting from four case studies are tabulated. Analysis of the results shows that explicit consideration of climate change uncertainty can provide an economic justification for investing in low carbon resources at above market costs. A number of specific recommendations are made in the paper. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  15. Climate risk and vulnerability: A handbook for Southern Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Davis, Claire L

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available relevant to a number of studies in the region and has been widely disseminated in Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Zambia and Zimbabwe (as the core part of customised training courses), as well as in other countries through related events. Since... to continue with climate change. Changes in SST have important implications for the upwelling strength in the Benguela Current system as well as the Agulhas Current, both of which are important drivers of climate for southern Africa. Figure 1.6: Observed...

  16. Support of the management of climatic risks and chances; Unterstuetzung des Managements von Klimarisiken und -chancen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kind, Christian; Mohns, Till [adelphi research gGmbH, Berlin (Germany); Sartorius, Christian [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung, Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    The far-reaching effects of irreversible climatic changes should inform on the expected changes, risks and opportunities. The project 'Support of the management of climate risks and opportunities' contributes to this. As part of this project, an information and decision support system (DSS) is developed which should enable public and private organizations (a) to identify possible risks of climatic change; (b) to avoid possible damages from adjustments; (c) to use possible opportunities of climatic change. The authors of the contribution under consideration develop a profound, scientific basis for the structure and content of the compass-EUS. To this end, various aspects are discussed that are important for the design of such a system.

  17. Key drivers and economic consequences of high-end climate scenarios: uncertainties and risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Drews, Martin

    2015-01-01

    The consequences of high-end climate scenarios and the risks of extreme events involve a number of critical assumptions and methodological challenges related to key uncertainties in climate scenarios and modelling, impact analysis, and economics. A methodological framework for integrated analysis...... of extreme events increase beyond scaling, and in combination with economic assumptions we find a very wide range of risk estimates for urban precipitation events. A sensitivity analysis addresses 32 combinations of climate scenarios, damage cost curve approaches, and economic assumptions, including risk...... aversion and equity represented by discount rates. Major impacts of alternative assumptions are investigated. As a result, this study demonstrates that in terms of decision making the actual expectations concerning future climate scenarios and the economic assumptions applied are very important...

  18. Support of the management of climatic risks and chances; Unterstuetzung des Managements von Klimarisiken und -chancen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kind, Christian; Mohns, Till [adelphi research gGmbH, Berlin (Germany); Sartorius, Christian [Fraunhofer-Institut fuer Systemtechnik und Innovationsforschung, Karlsruhe (Germany)

    2011-03-15

    The far-reaching effects of irreversible climatic changes should inform on the expected changes, risks and opportunities. The project 'Support of the management of climate risks and opportunities' contributes to this. As part of this project, an information and decision support system (DSS) is developed which should enable public and private organizations (a) to identify possible risks of climatic change; (b) to avoid possible damages from adjustments; (c) to use possible opportunities of climatic change. The authors of the contribution under consideration develop a profound, scientific basis for the structure and content of the compass-EUS. To this end, various aspects are discussed that are important for the design of such a system.

  19. Future bloom and blossom frost risk for Malus domestica considering climate model and impact model uncertainties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoffmann, Holger; Rath, Thomas

    2013-01-01

    The future bloom and risk of blossom frosts for Malus domestica were projected using regional climate realizations and phenological ( = impact) models. As climate impact projections are susceptible to uncertainties of climate and impact models and model concatenation, the significant horizon of the climate impact signal was analyzed by applying 7 impact models, including two new developments, on 13 climate realizations of the IPCC emission scenario A1B. Advancement of phenophases and a decrease in blossom frost risk for Lower Saxony (Germany) for early and late ripeners was determined by six out of seven phenological models. Single model/single grid point time series of bloom showed significant trends by 2021-2050 compared to 1971-2000, whereas the joint signal of all climate and impact models did not stabilize until 2043. Regarding blossom frost risk, joint projection variability exceeded the projected signal. Thus, blossom frost risk cannot be stated to be lower by the end of the 21st century despite a negative trend. As a consequence it is however unlikely to increase. Uncertainty of temperature, blooming date and blossom frost risk projection reached a minimum at 2078-2087. The projected phenophases advanced by 5.5 d K(-1), showing partial compensation of delayed fulfillment of the winter chill requirement and faster completion of the following forcing phase in spring. Finally, phenological model performance was improved by considering the length of day.

  20. Climate change vulnerability, adaptation and risk perceptions at farm level in Punjab, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abid, Muhammad; Schilling, Janpeter; Scheffran, Jürgen; Zulfiqar, Farhad

    2016-03-15

    Pakistan is among the countries highly exposed and vulnerable to climate change. The country has experienced many severe floods, droughts and storms over the last decades. However, little research has focused on the investigation of vulnerability and adaptation to climate-related risks in Pakistan. Against this backdrop, this article investigates the farm level risk perceptions and different aspects of vulnerability to climate change including sensitivity and adaptive capacity at farm level in Pakistan. We interviewed a total of 450 farming households through structured questionnaires in three districts of Punjab province of Pakistan. This study identified a number of climate-related risks perceived by farm households such as extreme temperature events, insect attacks, animal diseases and crop pests. Limited water availability, high levels of poverty and a weak role of local government in providing proper infrastructure were the factors that make farmers more sensitive to climate-related risks. Uncertainty or reduction in crop and livestock yields; changed cropping calendars and water shortage were the major adverse impacts of climate-related risks reported by farmers in the study districts. Better crop production was reported as the only positive effect. Further, this study identified a number of farm level adaptation methods employed by farm households that include changes in crop variety, crop types, planting dates and input mix, depending upon the nature of the climate-related risks. Lack of resources, limited information, lack of finances and institutional support were some constraints that limit the adaptive capacity of farm households. This study also reveals a positive role of cooperation and negative role of conflict in the adaptation process. The study suggests to address the constraints to adaptation and to improve farm level cooperation through extended outreach and distribution of institutional services, particularly climate-specific farm advisory

  1. Les Africaines Et Les Tic

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Enquête sur les technologies, la question de genre et autonomisation ...... Polachek, S. (1981) «Occupational self-selection: a human capital approach to sex ...... in the Computer Science major », Communications of the ACM, 44(5) : 108–14.

  2. Communicating Uncertainty about Climate Change for Application to Security Risk Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulledge, J. M.

    2011-12-01

    The science of climate change has convincingly demonstrated that human activities, including the release of greenhouse gases, land-surface changes, particle emissions, and redistribution of water, are changing global and regional climates. Consequently, key institutions are now concerned about the potential social impacts of climate change. For example, the 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review Report from the U.S. Department of Defense states that "climate change, energy security, and economic stability are inextricably linked." Meanwhile, insured losses from climate and weather-related natural disasters have risen dramatically over the past thirty years. Although these losses stem largely from socioeconomic trends, insurers are concerned that climate change could exacerbate this trend and render certain types of climate risk non-diversifiable. Meanwhile, the climate science community-broadly defined as physical, biological, and social scientists focused on some aspect of climate change-remains largely focused scholarly activities that are valued in the academy but not especially useful to decision makers. On the other hand, climate scientists who engage in policy discussions have generally permitted vested interests who support or oppose climate policies to frame the discussion of climate science within the policy arena. Such discussions focus on whether scientific uncertainties are sufficiently resolved to justify policy and the vested interests overstate or understate key uncertainties to support their own agendas. Consequently, the scientific community has become absorbed defending scientific findings to the near exclusion of developing novel tools to aid in risk-based decision-making. For example, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), established expressly for the purpose of informing governments, has largely been engaged in attempts to reduce unavoidable uncertainties rather than helping the world's governments define a science-based risk

  3. Assessing risks and uncertainties in forest dynamics under different management scenarios and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Albert

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background Forest management faces a climate induced shift in growth potential and increasing current and emerging new risks. Vulnerability analysis provides decision support based on projections of natural resources taking risks and uncertainties into account. In this paper we (1 characterize differences in forest dynamics under three management scenarios, (2 analyse the effects of the three scenarios on two risk factors, windthrow and drought stress, and (3 quantify the effects and the amount of uncertainty arising from climate projections on height increment and drought stress. Methods In four regions in northern Germany, we apply three contrasting management scenarios and project forest development under climate change until 2070. Three climate runs (minimum, median, maximum based on the emission scenario RCP 8.5 control the site-sensitive forest growth functions. The minimum and maximum climate run define the range of prospective climate development. Results The projections of different management regimes until 2070 show the diverging medium-term effects of thinnings and harvests and long-term effects of species conversion on a regional scale. Examples of windthrow vulnerability and drought stress reveal how adaptation measures depend on the applied management path and the decision-maker’s risk attitude. Uncertainty analysis shows the increasing variability of drought risk projections with time. The effect of climate projections on height growth are quantified and uncertainty analysis reveals that height growth of young trees is dominated by the age-trend whereas the climate signal in height increment of older trees is decisive. Conclusions Drought risk is a serious issue in the eastern regions independent of the applied silvicultural scenario, but adaptation measures are limited as the proportion of the most drought tolerant species Scots pine is already high. Windthrow risk is no serious overall threat in any region, but adequate

  4. Developing a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halimi, Mansour; Farajzadeh, Manuchehr; Delavari, Mahdi; Arbabi, Mohsen

    2015-01-01

    The strong relationship between climate and fascioliasis outbreaks enables the development of climate-based models to estimate the potential risk of fascioliasis outbreaks. This work aims to develop a climate-based risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks in Iran using Ollerenshaw's fascioliasis risk index incorporating geographical information system (GIS). Using this index, a risk map of fascioliasis outbreaks for the entire country was developed. We determined that the country can be divided into 4 fascioliasis outbreak risk categories. Class 1, in which the Mt value is less than 100, includes more than 0.91 of the country's area. The climate in this class is not conducive to fascioliasis outbreaks in any month. Dryness and low temperature in the wet season (December to April) are the key barriers against fascioliasis outbreaks in this class. The risk map developed based on climatic factors indicated that only 0.03 of the country's area, including Gilan province in the northern region of Iran, is highly suitable to fascioliasis outbreaks during September to January. The Mt value is greater than 500 in this class. Heavy rainfall in the summer and fall, especially in Rasht, Astara and Bandar Anzaly (≥ 1000 mm/year), creates more suitable breeding places for snail intermediate hosts. Copyright © 2015 King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

    2014-12-02

    Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

  6. Climate uncertainty and implications for U.S. state-level risk assessment through 2050.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Kelic, Andjelka; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.

    2009-10-01

    Decisions for climate policy will need to take place in advance of climate science resolving all relevant uncertainties. Further, if the concern of policy is to reduce risk, then the best-estimate of climate change impacts may not be so important as the currently understood uncertainty associated with realizable conditions having high consequence. This study focuses on one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change - precipitation - to understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and the near-term justification for interventions to mitigate the course of climate change. We show that the mean risk of damage to the economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of one trillion dollars over the next 40 years, with employment impacts of nearly 7 million labor-years. At a 1% exceedance-probability, the impact is over twice the mean-risk value. Impacts at the level of individual U.S. states are then typically in the multiple tens of billions dollar range with employment losses exceeding hundreds of thousands of labor-years. We used results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) climate-model ensemble as the referent for climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, mapped the simulated weather hydrologically to the county level for determining the physical consequence to economic activity at the state level, and then performed a detailed, seventy-industry, analysis of economic impact among the interacting lower-48 states. We determined industry GDP and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effect on personal income, and the consequences for the U.S. trade balance.

  7. Potential future risk of cholera due to climate change in northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in West-Africa and especially in Nigeria. Several studies have raised concern that climate change may exacerbate the risk of the disease in the future. Projecting the future risk of this disease is essential, especially for regions where the projected ...

  8. Adaptation to climate change related risks in Dutch urban areas: stimuli and barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Runhaar, H.A.C.; Mees, H.L.P.; Wardekker, J.A.; Sluijs, J.P. van der; Driessen, P.P.J.

    Climate change is associated with various risks, such as flooding and heat stress. So far, most research has concentrated on the identification and quantification of these risks as well as the development of adaptation measures. Yet much less is known about how planners actually perceive and deal

  9. Hygro thermal simulation to predict the risk of frost damage in masonry : effects of climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Aarle, M.A.P.; Schellen, H.L.; van Schijndel, A.W.M.

    2015-01-01

    According to the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) climate change will result in an increase of air temperature and rainfall intensities for the Netherlands in winter in future. In this paper we investigate the effect of the risk of frost damage to masonry. The risk of frost damage

  10. Civil protection and climate change impacts in the Netherlands: Local risk perceptions and actions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Berg, Maya Marieke; Coenen, Franciscus H.J.M.

    2010-01-01

    Being a delta, one third of the Dutch territory consists of flood-prone areas. This article discusses how the local civil protection system in the Netherlands responds to increasing climate change-induced flooding risks in terms of risk perception and action. Case studies on three Safety Regions are

  11. An evaluation of the treatment of risk and uncertainties in the IPCC reports on climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aven, Terje; Renn, Ortwin

    2015-04-01

    Few global threats rival global climate change in scale and potential consequence. The principal international authority assessing climate risk is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Through repeated assessments the IPCC has devoted considerable effort and interdisciplinary competence to articulating a common characterization of climate risk and uncertainties. We have reviewed the assessment and its foundation for the Fifth Assessment Reports published in 2013 and 2014, in particular the guidance note for lead authors of the fifth IPCC assessment report on consistent treatment of uncertainties. Our analysis shows that the work carried out by the ICPP is short of providing a theoretically and conceptually convincing foundation on the treatment of risk and uncertainties. The main reasons for our assessment are: (i) the concept of risk is given a too narrow definition (a function of consequences and probability/likelihood); and (ii) the reports lack precision in delineating their concepts and methods. The goal of this article is to contribute to improving the handling of uncertainty and risk in future IPCC studies, thereby obtaining a more theoretically substantiated characterization as well as enhanced scientific quality for risk analysis in this area. Several suggestions for how to improve the risk and uncertainty treatment are provided. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  12. Risk perception: The social construction of spatial knowledge around climate change-related scenarios in Lima

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Miranda Sara, L.; Jameson, S.; Pfeffer, K.; Baud, I.

    2016-01-01

    Lima's environmental sustainability is threatened by increasing water scarcity, heavy rain events and limited attention for water vulnerability and climate change scenarios. In this paper we examine how knowledge construction and risk perception on water-related disaster risks and vulnerabilities

  13. National security and the accelerating risk of climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Gunn

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Since 2006, retired U.S. admirals and generals have been examining our changing physical world and assessing the impact of those changes on the security of the nation. A Military Advisory Board (MAB, convened by the CNA Corporation, a non-profit research and analysis institution that operates the Center for Naval Analyses and Institute for Public Research has issued two reports on the changing climate’s national security implications. The first report, published in 2007, stated that the changing climate would be destabilizing in many parts of the world. Climate change, in fact, would be a “threat multiplier”, the report claimed, and result in new and more urgent calls for the American military to provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR as well as help sustain order and ensure conditions that would permit trade and prosperity worldwide. The MAB recommended urgent action by the Defense Department to prepare for new missions in new places; and that the Defense Department explicitly recognize missions stemming from the changing climate. CNA’s MAB then published three reports on energy, relating to climate change, one each on: the coming age of renewables, the nation’s energy dependence, and the future of energy in terms of America’s international competitiveness (CNA-MAB, 2009; CNA-MAB, 2010; CNA-MAB, 2011. In 2014, the Military Advisory Board noted that the climate was changing more quickly than had been forecast in 2007. Undertaking a new climate study, the board concluded that more needed to be done, and done quickly, to prepare for and confront the “catalyst for conflict” that the board now saw in climate change. Guest Editors’ Note: The following commentary derives from a presentation by Vice Admiral Lee Gunn, U.S. Navy (Ret., delivered by invitation at the American Association for the Advancement of Science Meeting, San Jose, California, February 13, 2015. Prior to his advisory role for the U.S. Military and

  14. Stratégies fondées sur les citoyens - collaboration avec les ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Dans le cadre de ce projet, on cherchera à comprendre le climat d'insécurité au sein des collectivités touchées par la violence à Medellín, en Colombie, du point de vue de ceux qui le vivent (les populations vulnérables). Travaillant de concert avec des membres de la collectivité, les chercheurs relèveront les principaux ...

  15. Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, Cynthia; Arnell, Nigel W.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Raes, Frank; Rapley, Chris; Smith, Mark Stafford; Cramer, Wolfgang; Frieler, Katja; Reyer, Christopher P. O.; hide

    2017-01-01

    The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

  16. Social perception of the health risks of Climate Change in Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francisco Heras Hernández

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper highlights some features characterizing the representation of climate change by Spanish society, paying special attention to its assessment of the risk for people and its potential threat to health.A series of opinion polls conducted in Spain in 2008, 2010 and 2012 were used to learn about the assessments of the risks derived from climate change for different time (current generations – future generations, economic (rich countries - poor countries and proximity-to-the-polled-person (Spanish society - your community - your family - you personally scenarios. The analysis of the data collected reveals there are different “styles” of risk assessment, four characteristic groups being described: “unconcerned”, “distant”, “aware” and “alarmed”.The paper also analyses the opinions of the people who where polled on the impacts of climate change on their own health, focusing on the future likelihood of their suffering health problems. Most people thought their health could be affected at some point in the future and that climate change will increase the likelihood of suffering certain illnesses, such as allergies, asthma and respiratory diseases.Nevertheless, it is difficult to know whether an awareness of climate change risks and their effects on health will bring about in the short term new attitudes and behaviours aimed at limiting the perceived threats, given how unimportant climate change is for Spanish society in practice.

  17. Managing weather and climate risks to agriculture in North America, Central America and the Caribbean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harlan D. Shannon

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available In recent decades, numerous weather- and climate-related natural disasters have impacted North America, Central America, and the Caribbean, repeatedly demonstrating how vulnerable local agriculture is to extreme episodic events. Given this recent history, and expectations that the frequency and intensity of some episodic events will increase with climate change, it is becoming increasingly important for farmers to proactively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture to protect their livelihoods. Some farmers in this region already apply various strategies to help reduce weather and climate risks and uncertainties, including farming in multiple locations, diversifying crops and varieties, seeking alternative sources of income, and purchasing crop insurance. Such efforts often help farmers maintain a more stable income while also protecting and preserving the productivity of the land. Other farmers, however, have failed to implement basic risk management strategies despite the clear benefits. Reasons for these failures can be attributed to inadequate farmer education and training, a lack of tools to help facilitate the practical application of risk management concepts, and poor communications between the agrometeorological and farming communities. The agrometeorological community can help overcome these obstacles by building upon existing efforts that have successfully educated farmers about weather and climate risks to agriculture and have equipped farmers with the data, tools, and applications necessary to manage these risks. Farmer input is critical to preparing effective educational and training materials and developing user-friendly risk management tools. The agrometeorological community should solicit input from farmers regularly to ensure that farmers are obtaining the information necessary to effectively manage weather and climate risks to agriculture.

  18. A Multi-Risk Approach to Climate Change Adaptation, Based on an Analysis of South Korean Newspaper Articles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Youngeun Kang

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The risks caused by climate change are worsening worldwide, and it is recognized that national and regional responses to climate change are essential. This study therefore explores climate change risks that have been recognized as fatal to people and the environment by analyzing multi-influence factors that appear in multiple risk indicators. The climate change risks in this study are based on 73 existing risk indicators; the frame data for multi-influence risk factors are based on 3098 newspaper articles published over 24 years on the impact of climate change in South Korea. The main outcomes for this study were finding climate change risk trend from newspaper articles regarding climate change impacts through text-mining, and figuring out the multi-risk indicators that are likely to occur at the same time with other risk indicators using network analysis. From the network analysis, we found that the major risk indicators have a high degree of interrelationship among risk indicators, including “increase in mortality rate from disaster”, “increase in flood areas due to coastal flooding”, and “destruction of repair facilities due to flooding (river bank, etc.”. The main risk indicators derived from this study can therefore be used as a reasonable standard when identifying the main risks posed by climate change and defining future adaptation planning priorities.

  19. Climate change : we are at risk : interim report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oliver, D.; Wiebe, J.

    2003-06-01

    Between November 2002 and May 2003 the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry travelled across Canada to hear the views of farmer organizations, rural associations, ecotourism groups and environmental organizations regarding concerns about climate change and the impact it may have on the agriculture and forestry sectors and rural communities. The Committee also examined potential adaptation strategies focusing on primary production, practices, technologies, ecosystems and other related areas. Farmers and forest operators are already facing changes in market conditions, domestic regulations, trade policies and technology. This interim report expressed the concerns of farmers and forest operators. It includes a review of the Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, the ice storm of 1998, and droughts since 1999. It also includes a discussion on climate change and its biophysical and economic effects on agriculture, forestry, water resources, rural communities, and Aboriginal communities. This interim report also briefly outlines the Kyoto Protocol, the emissions trading system, and the decarbonization of global energy systems. It emphasized the need for integrated research and government policies and programs that encourage adaptation to climate change. The final report will be released in October 2003 and will provide specific recommendations to ensure that Canada responds to the concerns of farmers and forest operators and to ensure continued prosperity in these sectors. refs., figs

  20. Climate change : we are at risk : interim report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oliver, D.; Wiebe, J.

    2003-06-01

    Between November 2002 and May 2003 the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry travelled across Canada to hear the views of farmer organizations, rural associations, ecotourism groups and environmental organizations regarding concerns about climate change and the impact it may have on the agriculture and forestry sectors and rural communities. The Committee also examined potential adaptation strategies focusing on primary production, practices, technologies, ecosystems and other related areas. Farmers and forest operators are already facing changes in market conditions, domestic regulations, trade policies and technology. This interim report expressed the concerns of farmers and forest operators. It includes a review of the Saguenay flood of 1996, the Red River flood of 1997, the ice storm of 1998, and droughts since 1999. It also includes a discussion on climate change and its biophysical and economic effects on agriculture, forestry, water resources, rural communities, and Aboriginal communities. This interim report also briefly outlines the Kyoto Protocol, the emissions trading system, and the decarbonization of global energy systems. It emphasized the need for integrated research and government policies and programs that encourage adaptation to climate change. The final report will be released in October 2003 and will provide specific recommendations to ensure that Canada responds to the concerns of farmers and forest operators and to ensure continued prosperity in these sectors. refs., figs.

  1. Simulating infectious disease risk based on climatic drivers: from numerical weather prediction to long term climate change scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caminade, C.; Ndione, J. A.; Diallo, M.; MacLeod, D.; Faye, O.; Ba, Y.; Dia, I.; Medlock, J. M.; Leach, S.; McIntyre, K. M.; Baylis, M.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-04-01

    Climate variability is an important component in determining the incidence of a number of diseases with significant health and socioeconomic impacts. In particular, vector born diseases are the most likely to be affected by climate; directly via the development rates and survival of both the pathogen and the vector, and indirectly through changes in the surrounding environmental conditions. Disease risk models of various complexities using different streams of climate forecasts as inputs have been developed within the QWeCI EU and ENHanCE ERA-NET project frameworks. This work will present two application examples, one for Africa and one for Europe. First, we focus on Rift Valley fever over sub-Saharan Africa, a zoonosis that affects domestic animals and humans by causing an acute fever. We show that the Rift Valley fever outbreak that occurred in late 2010 in the northern Sahelian region of Mauritania might have been anticipated ten days in advance using the GFS numerical weather prediction system. Then, an ensemble of regional climate projections is employed to model the climatic suitability of the Asian tiger mosquito for the future over Europe. The Asian tiger mosquito is an invasive species originally from Asia which is able to transmit West Nile and Chikungunya Fever among others. This species has spread worldwide during the last decades, mainly through the shipments of goods from Asia. Different disease models are employed and inter-compared to achieve such a task. Results show that the climatic conditions over southern England, central Western Europe and the Balkans might become more suitable for the mosquito (including the proviso that the mosquito has already been introduced) to establish itself in the future.

  2. Crop connectivity under climate change: future environmental and geographic risks of potato late blight in Scotland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skelsey, Peter; Cooke, David E L; Lynott, James S; Lees, Alison K

    2016-11-01

    The impact of climate change on dispersal processes is largely ignored in risk assessments for crop diseases, as inoculum is generally assumed to be ubiquitous and nonlimiting. We suggest that consideration of the impact of climate change on the connectivity of crops for inoculum transmission may provide additional explanatory and predictive power in disease risk assessments, leading to improved recommendations for agricultural adaptation to climate change. In this study, a crop-growth model was combined with aerobiological models and a newly developed infection risk model to provide a framework for quantifying the impact of future climates on the risk of disease occurrence and spread. The integrated model uses standard meteorological variables and can be easily adapted to various crop pathosystems characterized by airborne inoculum. In a case study, the framework was used with data defining the spatial distribution of potato crops in Scotland and spatially coherent, probabilistic climate change data to project the future connectivity of crop distributions for Phytophthora infestans (causal agent of potato late blight) inoculum and the subsequent risk of infection. Projections and control recommendations are provided for multiple combinations of potato cultivar and CO 2 emissions scenario, and temporal and spatial averaging schemes. Overall, we found that relative to current climatic conditions, the risk of late blight will increase in Scotland during the first half of the potato growing season and decrease during the second half. To guide adaptation strategies, we also investigated the potential impact of climate change-driven shifts in the cropping season. Advancing the start of the potato growing season by 1 month proved to be an effective strategy from both an agronomic and late blight management perspective. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in Southern Africa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Per Becker

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, the interest of the international community in the concepts of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation has been growing immensely. Even though an increasing number of scholars seem to view these concepts as two sides of the same coin (at least when not considering the potentially positive effects of climate change, in practice the two concepts have developed in parallel rather than in an integrated manner when it comes to policy, rhetoric and funding opportunities amongst international organisations and donors. This study investigates the extent of the creation of parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation in the Southern African Development Community (SADC region. The chosen methodology for the study is a comparative case study and the data are collected through focus groups and content analysis of documentary sources, as well as interviews with key informants. The results indicate that parallel structures for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation have been established in all but one of the studied countries. The qualitative interviews performed in some of the countries indicate that stakeholders in disaster risk reduction view this duplication of structures as unfortunate, inefficient and a fertile setup for conflict over resources for the implementation of similar activities. Additional research is called for in order to study the concrete effects of having these parallel structures as a foundation for advocacy for more efficient future disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

  4. Climate induced changes on the hydrology of Mediterranean basins - assessing uncertainties and quantifying risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ludwig, Ralf

    2014-05-01

    According to current climate projections, the Mediterranean area is at high risk for severe changes in the hydrological budget and extremes. With innovative scientific measures, integrated hydrological modeling and novel field geophysical field monitoring techniques, the FP7 project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins; GA: 244151) assessed the impacts of climate change on the hydrology in seven basins in the Mediterranean area, in Italy, France, Turkey, Tunisia, Egypt and the Gaza Strip, and quantified uncertainties and risks for the main stakeholders of each test site. Intensive climate model auditing selected four regional climate models, whose data was bias corrected and downscaled to serve as climate forcing for a set of hydrological models in each site. The results of the multi-model hydro-climatic ensemble and socio-economic factor analysis were applied to develop a risk model building upon spatial vulnerability and risk assessment. Findings generally reveal an increasing risk for water resources management in the test sites, yet at different rates and severity in the investigated sectors, with highest impacts likely to occur in the transition months. Most important elements of this research include the following aspects: • Climate change contributes, yet in strong regional variation, to water scarcity in the Mediterranean; other factors, e.g. pollution or poor management practices, are regionally still dominant pressures on water resources. • Rain-fed agriculture needs to adapt to seasonal changes; stable or increasing productivity likely depends on additional irrigation. • Tourism could benefit in shoulder seasons, but may expect income losses in the summer peak season due to increasing heat stress. • Local & regional water managers and water users, lack, as yet, awareness of climate change induced risks; emerging focus areas are supplies of domestic drinking water, irrigation, hydropower and livestock. • Data

  5. Farm Technologies and Production Risk in the Face of Climate ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In countries where insurance and credit markets are thin or missing, production and consumption risks play a critical role in the choice and use of production inputs and adoption of new farm technologies. This paper investigated the effect of selected farm technologies and their risk implications in different rainfall patterns of ...

  6. Modelling coffee leaf rust risk in Colombia with climate reanalysis data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bebber, Daniel P; Castillo, Ángela Delgado; Gurr, Sarah J

    2016-12-05

    Many fungal plant diseases are strongly controlled by weather, and global climate change is thus likely to have affected fungal pathogen distributions and impacts. Modelling the response of plant diseases to climate change is hampered by the difficulty of estimating pathogen-relevant microclimatic variables from standard meteorological data. The availability of increasingly sophisticated high-resolution climate reanalyses may help overcome this challenge. We illustrate the use of climate reanalyses by testing the hypothesis that climate change increased the likelihood of the 2008-2011 outbreak of Coffee Leaf Rust (CLR, Hemileia vastatrix) in Colombia. We develop a model of germination and infection risk, and drive this model using estimates of leaf wetness duration and canopy temperature from the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55). We model germination and infection as Weibull functions with different temperature optima, based upon existing experimental data. We find no evidence for an overall trend in disease risk in coffee-growing regions of Colombia from 1990 to 2015, therefore, we reject the climate change hypothesis. There was a significant elevation in predicted CLR infection risk from 2008 to 2011 compared with other years. JRA-55 data suggest a decrease in canopy surface water after 2008, which may have helped terminate the outbreak. The spatial resolution and accuracy of climate reanalyses are continually improving, increasing their utility for biological modelling. Confronting disease models with data requires not only accurate climate data, but also disease observations at high spatio-temporal resolution. Investment in monitoring, storage and accessibility of plant disease observation data are needed to match the quality of the climate data now available.This article is part of the themed issue 'Tackling emerging fungal threats to animal health, food security and ecosystem resilience'. © 2016 The Authors.

  7. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawson, Richard J.; Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Wood, Ruth; Darch, Geoff; Chapman, Lee; Hughes, Paul N.; Watson, Geoff V. R.; Paulson, Kevin; Bell, Sarah; Gosling, Simon N.; Powrie, William; Hall, Jim W.

    2018-06-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  8. A systems framework for national assessment of climate risks to infrastructure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, David; Johns, Daniel; Darch, Geoff; Paulson, Kevin

    2018-01-01

    Extreme weather causes substantial adverse socio-economic impacts by damaging and disrupting the infrastructure services that underpin modern society. Globally, $2.5tn a year is spent on infrastructure which is typically designed to last decades, over which period projected changes in the climate will modify infrastructure performance. A systems approach has been developed to assess risks across all infrastructure sectors to guide national policy making and adaptation investment. The method analyses diverse evidence of climate risks and adaptation actions, to assess the urgency and extent of adaptation required. Application to the UK shows that despite recent adaptation efforts, risks to infrastructure outweigh opportunities. Flooding is the greatest risk to all infrastructure sectors: even if the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 2°C is achieved, the number of users reliant on electricity infrastructure at risk of flooding would double, while a 4°C rise could triple UK flood damage. Other risks are significant, for example 5% and 20% of river catchments would be unable to meet water demand with 2°C and 4°C global warming respectively. Increased interdependence between infrastructure systems, especially from energy and information and communication technology (ICT), are amplifying risks, but adaptation action is limited by lack of clear responsibilities. A programme to build national capability is urgently required to improve infrastructure risk assessment. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’. PMID:29712793

  9. National Security Implications of Climate-related Risks and a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-07-23

    with military experts from Chile, Colombia, El Salvador , and Trinidad & Tobago, and presented the outcomes to the Inter- American Defense Board...in use for humanitarian assistance following the earthquakes in Nepal in 2015. The main source of funding for the GCCs’ HA/DR programs is the...although not necessarily climate change planning per se, for the last three years (after the Haiti earthquake in 2010) USSOUTHCOM has requested

  10. An app for climate-based Chikungunya risk monitoring and mapping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soebiyanto, R. P.; Rama, X.; Jepsen, R.; Bijoria, S.; Linthicum, K. J.; Anyamba, A.

    2017-12-01

    There is an increasing concern for reemergence and spread of chikungunya in the last 10 years in Africa, the Indian Ocean, and Asia, and range expansion that now reaches the Caribbean, South America and threatens North America. The outbreak of Chikungunya in 2013 and its spread throughout the Americas has so far resulted in more than 1.7 million suspected cases. This has demonstrated the importance of readiness in assessing potential risk of the emergence of vector-borne diseases. Climate and ecological conditions are now recognized as major contributors to the emergence and re-emergence of various vector-borne diseases including Chikungunya. Variations and persistence of extreme climate conditions provide suitable environment for the increase of certain disease vector populations, which then further amplify vector-borne disease transmission. This highlights the importance of climate anomaly information in assessing regions at risk for Chikungunya. In order to address such issue, we are developing a climate-based app, CHIKRISK, which will help decision makers to answer three critical questions: (i) Where has Chikungunya activity occurred; (ii) Where it is occurring now; (iii) Which regions are currently at risk for Chikungunya. We first develop a database of historical Chikungunya outbreak locations compiled from publicly available information. These records are used to map where Chikungunya activity has occurred over time. We leverage on various satellite-based climate data records - such as rainfall, land surface and near surface temperature to characterize evolving conditions prior to and during Chikungunya activity. Chikungunya outbreak data, climate and ancillary (i.e. population and elevation) data are used to develop analytics capability that will produce risk maps. The CHIKRISK app has the capability to visualize historical Chikungunya activity locations, climate anomaly conditions and Chikungunya risk maps. Currently, the focus of the development is on the

  11. FACOTRS TO DETERMINE RISK PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ATTITUDE TOWARD ADAPTATION POLICY OF THE PUBLIC

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baba, Kenshi; Sugimoto, Takuya; Kubota, Hiromi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Tanaka, Mitsuru

    This study clarifies the factors to determine risk perception of climate change and attitudes toward adaptation policy by analyzing the data collecting from Internet survey to the general public. The results indicate the followings: 1) more than 70% people perceive some sort of risk of climate change, and most people are awaken to wind and flood damage. 2) most people recognize that mitigation policy is much more important than adaptation policy, whereas most people assume to accept adaptation policy as self-reponsibility, 3) the significant factors to determinane risk perception of climate chage and attitude towerd adaptation policy are cognition of benefits on the policy and procedural justice in the policy process in addion to demographics such as gender, experience of disaster, intension of inhabitant.

  12. A coupled physical and economic model of the response of coastal real estate to climate risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, Dylan E.; Keeler, Andrew

    2013-06-01

    Barring an unprecedented large-scale effort to raise island elevation, barrier-island communities common along the US East Coast are likely to eventually face inundation of the existing built environment on a timescale that depends on uncertain climatic forcing. Between the present and when a combination of sea-level rise and erosion renders these areas uninhabitable, communities must choose levels of defensive expenditures to reduce risks and individual residents must assess whether and when risk levels are unacceptably high to justify investment in housing. We model the dynamics of coastal adaptation as the interplay of underlying climatic risks, collective actions to mitigate those risks, and individual risk assessments based on beliefs in model predictions and processing of past climate events. Efforts linking physical and behavioural models to explore shoreline dynamics have not yet brought together this set of essential factors. We couple a barrier-island model with an agent-based model of real-estate markets to show that, relative to people with low belief in model predictions about climate change, informed property owners invest heavily in defensive expenditures in the near term and then abandon coastal real estate at some critical risk threshold that presages a period of significant price volatility.

  13. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R. F.; Wilby, R. L.; Brown, K.; Watkiss, P.; Betts, Richard A.; Murphy, James M.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2018-06-01

    A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  14. Advancing national climate change risk assessment to deliver national adaptation plans.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, R F; Wilby, R L; Brown, K; Watkiss, P; Betts, Richard A; Murphy, James M; Lowe, Jason A

    2018-06-13

    A wide range of climate vulnerability and risk assessments have been implemented using different approaches at different scales, some with a broad multi-sectoral scope and others focused on single risks or sectors. This paper describes the novel approach to vulnerability and risk assessment which was designed and put into practice in the United Kingdom's Second Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA2) so as to build upon its earlier assessment (CCRA1). First, we summarize and critique the CCRA1 approach, and second describe the steps taken in the CCRA2 approach in detail, providing examples of how each was applied in practice. Novel elements of the approach include assessment of both present day and future vulnerability, a focus on the urgency of adaptation action, and a structure focused around systems of receptors rather than conventional sectors. Both stakeholders and reviewers generally regarded the approach as successful in providing advice on current risks and future opportunities to the UK from climate change, and the fulfilment of statutory duty. The need for a well-supported and open suite of impact indicators going forward is highlighted.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

  15. Managing climatic risks for urban settlements along Angola's coast ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2015-05-12

    May 12, 2015 ... Participatory mapping of areas at risk of flooding in Angola ... about which communities are most vulnerable, where environmental hazards are most ... In three municipalities of Luanda, participatory methods and a community ...

  16. Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nathan P. Kettle

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified.

  17. Motivators and Barriers to Incorporating Climate Change-Related Health Risks in Environmental Health Impact Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shilu Tong

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA, there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within an EHIA framework. Practitioners expressed concern over a number of factors relating to the current EHIA methodology and the inclusion of climate change-related health risks. These concerns related to the broad scope of issues that would need to be considered, problems with identifying appropriate health indicators, the lack of relevant qualitative information that is currently incorporated in assessment and persistent issues surrounding stakeholder participation. It was suggested that improvements are needed in data collection processes, particularly in terms of adequate communication between environmental and health practitioners. Concerns were raised surrounding data privacy and usage, and how these could impact on the assessment process. These findings may provide guidance for government and industry bodies to improve the assessment of climate change-related health risks.

  18. Motivators and barriers to incorporating climate change-related health risks in environmental health impact assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, Lyle R; Alderman, Katarzyna; Connell, Des; Tong, Shilu

    2013-03-22

    Climate change presents risks to health that must be addressed by both decision-makers and public health researchers. Within the application of Environmental Health Impact Assessment (EHIA), there have been few attempts to incorporate climate change-related health risks as an input to the framework. This study used a focus group design to examine the perceptions of government, industry and academic specialists about the suitability of assessing the health consequences of climate change within an EHIA framework. Practitioners expressed concern over a number of factors relating to the current EHIA methodology and the inclusion of climate change-related health risks. These concerns related to the broad scope of issues that would need to be considered, problems with identifying appropriate health indicators, the lack of relevant qualitative information that is currently incorporated in assessment and persistent issues surrounding stakeholder participation. It was suggested that improvements are needed in data collection processes, particularly in terms of adequate communication between environmental and health practitioners. Concerns were raised surrounding data privacy and usage, and how these could impact on the assessment process. These findings may provide guidance for government and industry bodies to improve the assessment of climate change-related health risks.

  19. Perception of Climate Risk among Rural Farmers in Vietnam: Consistency within Households and with the Empirical Record.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cullen, Alison C; Anderson, C Leigh

    2017-03-01

    Rural farmers in Vietnamese communes perceive climate risk and potential impacts on livelihood within a complex context that may influence individual and household decisions. In a primary survey of 1,145 residents of the Thach Ha district of Ha Tinh province, we gathered data regarding perception about stability in climate, potential risks to livelihood, demographic characteristics, orientation toward risk, and interest in expanding economic activity. Temporal analysis of meteorological and economic indicator data forms an empirical basis for comparison with human perception. We ask the basic question: Are rural farmers' perceptions of climate consistent with the historical record and reproducible within households? We find that respondents do perceive climate anomalies, with some anchoring on recent extreme events as revealed by climate observational data, and further that spouses disproportionately share perceptions relative to randomly simulated pairings. To put climate-related risk perception in a larger context, we examine patterns across a range of risks to livelihood faced by farmers (livestock disease, pests, markets, health), using dimension reduction techniques. We find that our respondents distinguish among potential causes of low economic productivity, with substantial emphasis on climate-related impacts. They do not express uniform concern across risks, but rather average patterns reveal common modes and distinguish climate concern. Still, among those expressing concern about climate-related risks to livelihood we do not find an association with expressed intention to pursue changes in economic activity as a risk management response. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

  20. Addressing the gender differentiated investment risks to climate-smart agriculture

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yannick Glemarec

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper argues that closing the gender gap in land and other productive resources can provide a “triple dividend” of gender equality, food security and climate management, thereby offering a cost-effective approach to the pursuit of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, climate change compounds the structural barriers to gender equality that women farmers face, rapidly shrinking the window of opportunity to realize this triple dividend. Yet climate policies largely overlook the gender gap in agriculture.The growing literature on the gender gap aims to better quantify its implications for agricultural productivity but does not provide a framework to prioritize policy responses. To complement these econometric efforts, this paper proposes a three-step methodology to assist policy-makers in developing countries in disentangling the opportunities and trade-offs of different policies and interventions to close the gender gap that impedes climate-smart agriculture (CSA for women.Barrier and risk analyses are increasingly used to identify public instruments that can catalyze climate smart investments. Building on this proven methodology, the paper first develops a table that clusters barriers to CSA into nine independent risk categories. Second, it overlays a gender analysis upon this gender-neutral barrier and risk table to identify gender-differentiated risks and barriers to CSA. Third, it maps identified gender-neutral and differentiated investment risks against possible remedial public policy instruments.The analysis suggests that about half of identified CSA investment risks have a higher probability of occurrence for women farmers than for men farmers. Furthermore, women farmers might face additional gender-specific barriers, mostly linked to their disproportionate responsibility for unpaid domestic and care work, the risk of violence and unequal power relations with men in the household and community. Targeted interventions will be

  1. Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

    2013-01-01

    [1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

  2. Using reanalysis and drought indices to study portfolio-level climate risk in the industry sector

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonnafous, L.

    2017-12-01

    Water-related hazards including flooding due to extreme rainfall, persistent drought and pollution, either due to industrial operations themselves, or to the failure of infrastructure have emerged as a potential risk for industrial operations. Most companies have risk management plans at each operational location to address these risks to a certain design level. The residual risk may or may not be managed, and is typically not quantified at a portfolio scale, i.e. across many sites. Given that climate is the driver of many of these extreme events, and there is evidence of quasi-periodic climate regimes at inter-annual and decadal timescales, it is possible that a portfolio is subject to persistent, multi-year exceedances of the design level. It is thus likely that there is correlation in the climate-induced portfolio water risk across its operational sites as multiple sites may experience a hazard beyond the design level in a given year. Therefore, a need exists for water risk indexes that allow for an exploration of the possible space and/or time clustering in exposure across many sites contained in a portfolio. Focusing on extreme daily rainfall amounts and monthly to yearly drought, and using examples from major mining companies, we illustrate how such indexes can be developed using reanalysis products as well as gridded datasets of drought indices based on climate data records. For the examples of mining companies provided, we note that the actual exposure is substantially higher than would be expected in the absence of space and time correlation of risk as is often tacitly assumed within the industry. We also find evidence for the increasing exposure to climate-induced risk, and for decadal variability in exposure. The relative vulnerability of different portfolios to multiple extreme events in a given year is also demonstrated.

  3. Assessment of Costs for a Global Climate Fund Against Public Sector Disaster Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan; Mechler, Reinhard; Pflug, Georg; Williges, Keith

    2013-04-01

    National governments are key actors in managing climate variability and change, yet, many countries, faced with exhausted tax bases, high levels of indebtedness and limited donor assistance, have been unable to raise sufficient and timely capital to replace or repair damaged assets and restore livelihoods following major disasters exacerbating the impacts of disaster shocks on poverty and development. For weather extremes, which form a subset of the adaptation challenge and are supposed to increase in intensity and frequency with a changing climate, we conduct an assessment of the costs of managing and financing today's public sector risks on a global scale for more than 180 countries. A countries financial vulnerability is defined as a function of its financial resilience and its exposure to disaster risk. While disaster risk is estimated in terms of asset loss distributions based on catastrophe modeling approaches, financial resilience is operationalized as the public sector's ability to pay for relief to the affected population and support the reconstruction of affected assets and infrastructure for a given event. We consider governments financially vulnerable to disasters if they cannot access sufficient funding after a disaster to cover their liabilities. We operationalize this concept by the term resource gap, which we define the net loss associated with a disaster event after exhausting all possible ex-post and ex ante financing sources. Extending this approach for all possible disaster events, the risk that a resource gap will occur over a given time-span can be calculated for each country individually and dependent on the risk level different risk instruments may have to be applied. Furthermore, our estimates may inform decisions pertaining to a "climate insurance fund" absorbing "high level" country risks exceeding the ability of any given country to pay in the case of an extreme event. Our estimates relate to today's climate, yet we suggest that

  4. Les choses…

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pierre Curie

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Dans la culture tant des Monuments historiques que de l’Université française, le monumental a longtemps prévalu sur l’objet, peinture, sculpture ou objet d’art qui, lui, dans l’inconscient collectif, relevait tout naturellement du musée. Dans la pensée et dans les goûts d’André Chastel, les catégories n’étaient pas aussi manichéennes et à l’Inventaire, malgré une certaine prééminence de l’architecture, l’objet - au sens large - tint, dès le début de l’aventure, une place non négligeable. Le premier des Vocabulaires parus, en 1969, fut consacré à la tapisserie, suivi, en une vingtaine d’années, par la sculpture, les objets et le mobilier civil domestique, le vitrail…In the culture of France’s historic monuments, as in French universities, the monumental has long been considered as more important than sculptures or works of art, generally seen as more to do with museums. In the writings and tastes of André Chastel, however, the categories were not so clear-cut and, at the French Inventory, although architecture has enjoyed a certain pre-eminence, the object, in the broadest sense of the term, has been taken into consideration form the outset. Over 17,000 items now feature in the national database Palissy, on moveable objects. The first scientific vocabulary, published by the Inventory services in 1969, was devoted to tapestry and, over the last twenty years, other vocabularies have dealt with sculpture, domestic civil furniture and stained glass.

  5. Risk to a Changing Climate in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vargas, N. D.

    2016-12-01

    The issue of climate change has dominated the atmospheric sciences agenda in recent decades. The concern about an increase in climate related disasters, mainly in large population centers, has led to ask whether they are mainly due to changes in climate or in vulnerability.The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is an example of megalopolis under high climate risk, where floods, landslides, health problems, high air pollution events, socioeconomic droughts are becoming important environmental and social problems. As urbanization spreads and population increases exposure to natural hazards increases, and so the magnitude of risk to a changing climate and the negative impacts. Since the late nineteenth century, in the MCMA an average maximum temperature could be around 22°C, whereas today it is about 24.5ºC. That is, the increase in the average temperature in Mexico City is around 3°C in a hundred years. But there are areas where an increase in the average temperature is similar in only thirty years. The heating rate of the city can vary depending on the change in land use. Areas that conserve forested regions in the process of urbanization tend to warm less than areas where the transformation into concrete and cement is almost complete. Thus, the climate of the MCMA shows important changes mainly in relation to land use changes. Global warming and natural climate variability were also analyzed as possible forcing factors of the observed warming by comparing low frequency variations in local temperature and indices for natural forcing. The hydrological cycle of the MCMA has also changed with urbanization. The "bubble of hot air" over the urban area has more capacity to hold moisture now than before the UHI. However, the increased risk to floods, heat or drought appears to be related not only to more frequent intense climatic hazards induced by the urbanization effect. This process also induces increased vulnerability to a changing climate. The establishment of

  6. America's Water in the 20th Century: Measures to address climate induced risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devineni, N.

    2017-12-01

    This work develops an understanding of water risk for USA considering linkages between water supply and competing demands. It explores how climate variability and changing water demands manifest as water deficits and how public-private management decisions determine regional water availability and drought resilience. We develop insights on regional water risks, infrastructure investments, sectoral allocation and policy modifications for America's future water sustainability. In this talk, I will focus on demonstrating how the variations in climate over the last century influenced changes in water use across the continent USA. A peak into our interactive modeling environment for future evolution of water use and supply will also be provided.

  7. Increased wind risk from sting-jet windstorms with climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Alvarado, Oscar; Gray, Suzanne L.; Hart, Neil C. G.; Clark, Peter A.; Hodges, Kevin; Roberts, Malcolm J.

    2018-04-01

    Extra-tropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over western Europe. The strongest cyclones, often termed windstorms, have a large socio-economic impact on landfall due to strong surface winds and coastal storm surges. Climate model integrations have predicted a future increase in the frequency of, and potential damage from, European windstorms and yet these integrations cannot properly represent localised jets, such as sting jets, that may significantly enhance damage. Here we present the first prediction of how the climatology of sting-jet-containing cyclones will change in a future warmer climate, considering the North Atlantic and Europe. A proven sting-jet precursor diagnostic is applied to 13 year present-day and future (~2100) climate integrations from the Met Office Unified Model in its Global Atmosphere 3.0 configuration. The present-day climate results are consistent with previously-published results from a reanalysis dataset (with around 32% of cyclones exhibiting the sing-jet precursor), lending credibility to the analysis of the future-climate integration. The proportion of cyclones exhibiting the sting-jet precursor in the future-climate integration increases to 45%. Furthermore, while the proportion of explosively-deepening storms increases only slightly in the future climate, the proportion of those storms with the sting-jet precursor increases by 60%. The European resolved-wind risk associated with explosively-deepening storms containing a sting-jet precursor increases substantially in the future climate; in reality this wind risk is likely to be further enhanced by the release of localised moist instability, unresolved by typical climate models.

  8. Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Scheffran, Juergen [Hamburg Univ. (Germany). Research Group Climate Change and Security

    2009-07-01

    In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

  9. Climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament. From security threats to sustainable peace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scheffran, Juergen

    2009-01-01

    In the future, nuclear and climate risks may interfere with each other in a mutually enforcing way. Con-flicts induced by climate change could contribute to global insecurity and create more incentives for states to rely on military force, including nuclear weapons. Rather than being a direct cause of war, cli-mate change significantly affects the delicate balance between social and environmental systems in a way that could undermine human security and societal stability with potentially grave consequences for international security. Increased reliance on nuclear energy to reduce carbon emissions will contribute to the risks of nuclear proliferation. A renewed nuclear arms race would consume considerable resources and undermine the conditions for tackling the problem of climate change in a cooperative manner. Nuclear war itself would severely destabilize human societies and the environment, not to speak of the possibility of a nuclear winter that would disrupt the atmosphere. On the other hand, finding solutions to one problem area could help to find solutions in the other. Pre-venting the dangers of climate change and nuclear war requires an integrated set of strategies that ad-dress the causes as well as the impacts on the natural and social environment. Institutions are needed to strengthen common, ecological and human security, build and reinforce conflict-resolution mechanisms and low-carbon energy alternatives, and create sustainable lifecycles that respect the capabilities of the living world. This article examines the linkages between nuclear and climate risks, identifies areas where both threats converge, and offers an approach to move from living under these security threats to building sustain-able peace. By bringing to light the multidimensional interplay between climate change, nuclear risks and nuclear disarmament, this study aims to help the reader grasp their interconnectedness and recognize its critical implications for the strategic security

  10. Climate risks to agriculture in Amazon arc-of-deforestation create incentives to conserve local forests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, M. H.; Fleck, L. C.; Cohn, A.; Abrahão, G. M.; Brando, P. M.; Coe, M. T.; Fu, R.; Lawrence, D.; Pires, G. F.; Pousa, R.; Soares, B. Filh

    2017-12-01

    Intensification of agriculture is a necessary condition for sustainably meeting global food demands without increasing deforestation. In southern Amazonia, a region that produces 7% of the world's soybeans, double cropping has become the preferred system for the intensification of agriculture, which is essentially rainfed. Rainy season is shortening in the region, due to climate change, and is predicted to become shorter in the future. The climate risks are worsened by the region's land use change. This increases the climate risk and even threat the intensive double-cropping agriculture that is currently practiced in that region, with potential perverse consequences to everyone. Repeated or widespread climate-driven crop failure could prompt a return to the single cropping system or even cropland abandonment. A shift to single cropping could decrease the agriculture output in this critical region, push up global food prices and heighten incentives to convert regional ecosystems to agricultural land. Further agricultural expansion into ecosystems would increase climate change. The more forest lost, the higher the climate risk will be, due to climate feedbacks from deforestation itself, triggering a spiraling decline of the rainforests and rainfall over southern Amazonia and other critical agricultural regions known to depend on the forests of Amazonia for rainfall. We show that there are economic and social reasons to preserve the forests, and it is in the best interest of the agribusiness, local governments and people, to conserve the remaining forests. The adaptation and mitigation needs, and policies to reconcile production and protection while mitigating supply chains risks are also discussed.

  11. The uncertainty cascade in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions - the Biala Tarnowska case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, Joanna; Romanowicz, Renata

    2016-04-01

    Uncertainty in the results of the hydraulic model is not only associated with the limitations of that model and the shortcomings of data. An important factor that has a major impact on the uncertainty of the flood risk assessment in a changing climate conditions is associated with the uncertainty of future climate scenarios (IPCC WG I, 2013). Future climate projections provided by global climate models are used to generate future runoff required as an input to hydraulic models applied in the derivation of flood risk maps. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the uncertainty of future climate projections, an uncertainty of flow routing model, the propagation of that uncertainty through the hydraulic model, and finally, the uncertainty related to the derivation of flood risk maps. One of the aims of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the process, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-section. The study shows that the application of the simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the

  12. An application of a hydraulic model simulator in flood risk assessment under changing climatic conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doroszkiewicz, J. M.; Romanowicz, R. J.

    2016-12-01

    The standard procedure of climate change impact assessment on future hydrological extremes consists of a chain of consecutive actions, starting from the choice of GCM driven by an assumed CO2 scenario, through downscaling of climatic forcing to a catchment scale, estimation of hydrological extreme indices using hydrological modelling tools and subsequent derivation of flood risk maps with the help of a hydraulic model. Among many possible sources of uncertainty, the main are the uncertainties related to future climate scenarios, climate models, downscaling techniques and hydrological and hydraulic models. Unfortunately, we cannot directly assess the impact of these different sources of uncertainties on flood risk in future due to lack of observations of future climate realizations. The aim of this study is an assessment of a relative impact of different sources of uncertainty on the uncertainty of flood risk maps. Due to the complexity of the processes involved, an assessment of total uncertainty of maps of inundation probability might be very computer time consuming. As a way forward we present an application of a hydraulic model simulator based on a nonlinear transfer function model for the chosen locations along the river reach. The transfer function model parameters are estimated based on the simulations of the hydraulic model at each of the model cross-sections. The study shows that the application of a simulator substantially reduces the computer requirements related to the derivation of flood risk maps under future climatic conditions. Biala Tarnowska catchment, situated in southern Poland is used as a case study. Future discharges at the input to a hydraulic model are obtained using the HBV model and climate projections obtained from the EUROCORDEX project. The study describes a cascade of uncertainty related to different stages of the process of derivation of flood risk maps under changing climate conditions. In this context it takes into account the

  13. Les incommensurables

    CERN Document Server

    Houdart, Sophie

    2015-01-01

    Le Large Hadron Collider, ou grand collisionneur de hadrons, est l'accélérateur de particules le plus grand et le plus puissant du monde. Prenant la forme d'un anneau de 26,659 kilomètres de circonférence, lové 100 mètres sous terre et officiellement domicilié à Meyrin, à la frontière de la France et de la Suisse, il est constitué d'aimants supraconducteurs et de structures accélératrices qui augmentent l'énergie des particules qui y circulent. Chaque jour, à l'intérieur de l'accélérateur, deux faisceaux de particules qui circulent en sens contraire à des énergies très élevées avant de rentrer en collision l'un avec l'autre. Les particules, lancées à 99,9999991 % de la vitesse de la lumière, effectuent 11245 fois le tour de l'accélérateur par seconde et entrent en collision quelque 600 millions de fois par seconde. Les Incommensurables est une minutieuse enquête de terrain sur cette "cathédrale" enfouie qui offre la possibilité de se connecter à l'immensité et aux mystères de...

  14. Developing rural community health risk assessments for climate change: a Tasmanian pilot study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Erica J; Turner, Paul; Meinke, Holger; Holbrook, Neil J

    2015-01-01

    This article examines the development and pilot implementation of an approach to support local community decision-makers to plan health adaptation responses to climate change. The approach involves health and wellbeing risk assessment supported through the use of an electronic tool. While climate change is a major foreseeable public health threat, the extent to which health services are prepared for, or able to adequately respond to, climate change impact-related risks remains unclear. Building health decision-support mechanisms in order to involve and empower local stakeholders to help create the basis for agreement on these adaptive actions is an important first step. The primary research question was 'What can be learned from pilot implementation of a community health and well-being risk assessment (CHWRA) information technology-based tool designed to support understanding of, and decision-making on, local community challenges and opportunities associated with health risks posed by climate change? The article examines the complexity of climate change science to adaptation translational processes, with reference to existing research literature on community development. This is done in the context of addressing human health risks for rural and remote communities in Tasmania, Australia. This process is further examined through the pilot implementation of an electronic tool designed to support the translation of physically based climate change impact information into community-level assessments of health risks and adaptation priorities. The procedural and technical nature of the CHWRA tool is described, and the implications of the data gathered from stakeholder workshops held at three rural Tasmanian local government sites are considered and discussed. Bushfire, depression and waterborne diseases were identified by community stakeholders as being potentially 'catastrophic' health effects 'likely' to 'almost certain' to occur at one or more Tasmanian rural sites

  15. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  16. Experts’ understandings of drinking water risk management in a climate change scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Åsa Boholm

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available The challenges for society presented by climate change are complex and demanding. This paper focuses on one particular resource of utmost necessity and vulnerability to climate change: namely, the provisioning of safe drinking water. From a critical perspective on the role of expertise in risk debates, this paper looks at how Swedish experts understand risk to drinking water in a climate change scenario and how they reason about challenges to risk management and adaptation strategies. The empirical material derives from ten in-depth semi-structured interviews with experts, employed both at government agencies and at universities, and with disciplinary backgrounds in a variety of fields (water engineering, planning, geology and environmental chemistry. The experts understand risk factors affecting both drinking water quality and availability as complex and systemically interrelated. A lack of political saliency of drinking water as a public service is identified as an obstacle to the development of robust adaptation strategies. Another area of concern relates to the geographical, organizational and institutional boundaries (regulatory, political and epistemological between the plethora of public actors with partly overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for the provisioning of safe drinking water. The study concludes that climate change adaptation regarding drinking water provisioning will require a new integration of the knowledge of systemic risk relations, in combination with more efficient agency collaboration based on a clear demarcation of responsibility between actors.

  17. Climatic change in Germany. Development, consequences, risks and perspectives; Klimawandel in Deutschland. Entwicklung, Folgen, Risiken und Perspektiven

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brasseur, Guy [Max-Planck-Institut fuer Meteorologie, Hamburg (Germany); Jacob, Daniela; Schuck-Zoeller, Susanne (eds.) [Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Hamburg (Germany). Climate Service Center Germany

    2017-06-01

    The book on the climatic change in Germany includes contributions to the following issues: global climate projections and regional projections in Germany and Europe: observation of the climatic change in Central Europe, regional climate modeling, limits and challenges of the regional climate modeling; climatic change in Germany - regional features and extremes: temperature and heat waves, precipitation, wind and cyclones, sea-level increase, tides, storm floods and sea state, floods, definition uncertainties, draughts, forest fires, natural risks; consequences of the climatic change in Germany: air quality, health, biodiversity, water resources, biochemical cycles, agriculture, forestry, soils, personal and commercial transport, cities and urban regions, tourism, infrastructure, energy and water supplies, cost of the climatic change and economic consequences; overall risks and uncertainties: assessment of vulnerabilities, literature review, climatic change as risk enhancement in complex systems, overall risks and uncertainties, decision making under uncertainties in complex systems; integrated strategies for the adaptation to the climatic change: the climate resilient society - transformations and system changes, adaptation to the climatic change as new political field, options for adaptation strategies.

  18. Climate risk management for the U.S. cellulosic biofuels supply chain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew Langholtz

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available As U.S. energy policy turns to bioenergy, and second-generation biofuels in particular, to foster energy security and environmental benefits, consideration should be given to the implications of climate risk for the incipient bioenergy industry. As a case-in-point, we review evidence from the 2012 U.S. drought, underscoring the risk of extreme weather events to the agricultural sector in general, and the bioenergy supply chain in particular, including reductions in feedstock production and higher prices for agricultural commodities and biofuels. We also use a risk management framework developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to review current understanding regarding climate-related hazards, exposure, and vulnerability of the bioenergy supply chain with a particular emphasis on the growing importance of lignocellulosic feedstocks to future bioenergy development. A number of climate-related hazards are projected to become more severe in future decades, and future growth of bioenergy feedstocks is likely to occur disproportionately in regions preferentially exposed to such hazards. However, strategies and opportunities are available across the supply chain to enhance coping and adaptive capacity in response to this risk. In particular, the implications of climate change will be influenced by the expansion of cellulosic feedstocks, particularly perennial grasses and woody biomass. In addition, advancements in feedstock development, logistics, and extension provide opportunities to support the sustainable development of a robust U.S. bioenergy industry as part of a holistic energy and environmental policy. However, given the nascent state of the cellulosic biofuels industry, careful attention should be given to managing climate risk over both short- and long-time scales.

  19. The Climate Resilience Toolkit: Central gateway for risk assessment and resilience planning at all governance scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herring, D.; Lipschultz, F.

    2016-12-01

    As people and organizations grapple with a changing climate amid a range of other factors simultaneously shifting, there is a need for credible, legitimate & salient scientific information in useful formats. In addition, an assessment framework is needed to guide the process of planning and implementing projects that allow communities and businesses to adapt to specific changing conditions, while also building overall resilience to future change. We will discuss how the U.S. Climate Resilience Toolkit (CRT) can improve people's ability to understand and manage their climate-related risks and opportunities, and help them make their communities and businesses more resilient. In close coordination with the U.S. Climate Data Initiative, the CRT is continually evolving to offer actionable authoritative information, relevant tools, and subject matter expertise from across the U.S. federal government in one easy-to-use location. The Toolkit's "Climate Explorer" is designed to help people understand potential climate conditions over the course of this century. It offers easy access to downloadable maps, graphs, and data tables of observed and projected temperature, precipitation and other decision-relevant climate variables dating back to 1950 and out to 2100. Since climate is only one of many changing factors affecting decisions about the future, it also ties climate information to a wide range of relevant variables to help users explore vulnerabilities and impacts. New topic areas have been added, such as "Fisheries," "Regions," and "Built Environment" sections that feature case studies and personal experiences in making adaptation decisions. A curated "Reports" section is integrated with semantic web capabilities to help users locate the most relevant information sources. As part of the USGCRP's sustained assessment process, the CRT is aligning with other federal activities, such as the upcoming 4th National Climate Assessment.

  20. Implementing Cargo Movement into Climate Based Risk Assessment of Vector-Borne Diseases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephanie Margarete Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Asian tiger mosquito has rapidly spread around the globe. Global shipment of goods contributes to its permanent introduction. Invaded regions are facing novel and serious public health concerns, especially regarding the transmission of formerly non-endemic arboviruses such as dengue and chikungunya. The further development and potential spread to other regions depends largely on their climatic suitability. Here, we have developed a tool for identifying and prioritizing European areas at risk for the establishment of Aedes albopictus by taking into account, for the first time, the freight imports from this mosquito’s endemic countries and the climate suitability at harbors and their surrounding regions. In a second step we consider the further transport of containers by train and inland waterways because these types of transport can be well controlled. We identify European regions at risk, where a huge amount of transported goods meet climatically suitable conditions for the disease vector. The current and future suitability of the climate for Aedes albopictus was modeled by a correlative niche model approach and the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. This risk assessment combines impacts of globalization and global warming to improve effective and proactive interventions in disease vector surveillance and control actions.

  1. Climate variability and conflict risk in East Africa, 1990-2009.

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Loughlin, John; Witmer, Frank D W; Linke, Andrew M; Laing, Arlene; Gettelman, Andrew; Dudhia, Jimy

    2012-11-06

    Recent studies concerning the possible relationship between climate trends and the risks of violent conflict have yielded contradictory results, partly because of choices of conflict measures and modeling design. In this study, we examine climate-conflict relationships using a geographically disaggregated approach. We consider the effects of climate change to be both local and national in character, and we use a conflict database that contains 16,359 individual geolocated violent events for East Africa from 1990 to 2009. Unlike previous studies that relied exclusively on political and economic controls, we analyze the many geographical factors that have been shown to be important in understanding the distribution and causes of violence while also considering yearly and country fixed effects. For our main climate indicators at gridded 1° resolution (~100 km), wetter deviations from the precipitation norms decrease the risk of violence, whereas drier and normal periods show no effects. The relationship between temperature and conflict shows that much warmer than normal temperatures raise the risk of violence, whereas average and cooler temperatures have no effect. These precipitation and temperature effects are statistically significant but have modest influence in terms of predictive power in a model with political, economic, and physical geographic predictors. Large variations in the climate-conflict relationships are evident between the nine countries of the study region and across time periods.

  2. Health risks of climate change in the World Health Organization South-East Asia Region.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Ebi, Kristie L

    2017-09-01

    Countries in the World Health Organization (WHO) South-East Asia Region are particularly vulnerable to a changing climate. Changes in extreme weather events, undernutrition and the spread of infectious diseases are projected to increase the number of deaths due to climate change by 2030, indicating the need to strengthen activities for adaptation and mitigation. With support from the WHO Regional Office for South-East Asia and others, countries have started to include climate change as a key consideration in their national public health policies. Further efforts are needed to develop evidence-based responses; garner the necessary support from partner ministries; and access funding for activities related to health and climate change. National action plans for climate change generally identify health as one of their priorities; however, limited information is available on implementation processes, including which ministries and departments would be involved; the time frame; stakeholder responsibilities; and how the projects would be financed. While progress is being made, efforts are needed to increase the capacity of health systems to manage the health risks of climate change in South-East Asia, if population health is to be protected and strengthened while addressing changing weather and climate patterns. Enhancing the resilience of health systems is key to ensuring a sustainable path to improved planetary and population health.

  3. Identifying climate risk perceptions, information needs, and barriers to information exchange among public land managers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, Casey B; Schwartz, Mark W; Lubell, Mark N

    2018-03-01

    Meeting ecosystem management challenges posed by climate change requires building effective communication channels among researchers, planners and practitioners to focus research on management issues requiring new knowledge. We surveyed resource managers within two regions of the western United States regions to better understand perceived risks and vulnerabilities associated with climate change and barriers to obtaining and using relevant climate science information in making ecosystem management decisions. We sought to understand what types of climate science information resource managers find most valuable, and the formats in which they prefer to receive climate science information. We found broad concern among natural resource managers in federal agencies that climate change will make it more difficult for them to achieve their management goals. Primary barriers to incorporating climate science into planning are distributed among challenges identifying, receiving, and interpreting appropriate science and a lack of direction provided by agency leadership needed to meaningfully use this emerging science in resource planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Mapping regional risks from climate change for rainfed rice cultivation in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Kuntal; McClean, Colin J; Büker, Patrick; Hartley, Sue E; Hill, Jane K

    2017-09-01

    Global warming is predicted to increase in the future, with detrimental consequences for rainfed crops that are dependent on natural rainfall (i.e. non-irrigated). Given that many crops grown under rainfed conditions support the livelihoods of low-income farmers, it is important to highlight the vulnerability of rainfed areas to climate change in order to anticipate potential risks to food security. In this paper, we focus on India, where ~ 50% of rice is grown under rainfed conditions, and we employ statistical models (climate envelope models (CEMs) and boosted regression trees (BRTs)) to map changes in climate suitability for rainfed rice cultivation at a regional level (~ 18 × 18 km cell resolution) under projected future (2050) climate change (IPCC RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, using three GCMs: BCC-CSM1.1, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and HadGEM2-ES). We quantify the occurrence of rice (whether or not rainfed rice is commonly grown, using CEMs) and rice extent (area under cultivation, using BRTs) during the summer monsoon in relation to four climate variables that affect rice growth and yield namely ratio of precipitation to evapotranspiration ( PER ), maximum and minimum temperatures ( T max and T min ), and total rainfall during harvesting. Our models described the occurrence and extent of rice very well (CEMs for occurrence, ensemble AUC = 0.92; BRTs for extent, Pearson's r = 0.87). PER was the most important predictor of rainfed rice occurrence, and it was positively related to rainfed rice area, but all four climate variables were important for determining the extent of rice cultivation. Our models project that 15%-40% of current rainfed rice growing areas will be at risk (i.e. decline in climate suitability or become completely unsuitable). However, our models project considerable variation across India in the impact of future climate change: eastern and northern India are the locations most at risk, but parts of central and western India may benefit from increased

  5. Which Risks Get Managed? Addressing Climate Effects in the Context of Evolving Water-Governance Institutions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ken Conca

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Warnings about climate change invariably stress water-related effects. Such effects are typically framed as both unpredictable and disruptive, and are thus said to create large new risks to the water sector demanding adaptive responses. This article examines how such responses are mediated by, and also compromised by, two dominant trends in the evolution of water governance institutions: (1 the rise of an “integrated” paradigm of water resources management, which has encouraged the development of more complex and interconnected water institutions, and (2 the rapidly changing political economy of water financing and investment. Each of these trends carries its own strong presumptions about what constitutes water-related risk and how such risk is properly managed. The article uses the specific example of large dam projects to illustrate how these ongoing trends in water governance shape and complicate the prospect of managing climate-water risks.

  6. Les manifestations cardiovasculaires chez les hemodialyses ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Le but de l'étude est d'analyser sur une période de 12 mois chez 75 patients en hémodialyse chronique, âgés de 38ans en moyenne, le les aspects cliniques, thérapeutiques et évolutifs des manifestations cardiovasculaires. La prévalence est de 87,20% chez les patients. Les signes fonctionnels les plus fréquents sont la ...

  7. Climate

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fellous, J.L.

    2005-02-01

    This book starts with a series of about 20 preconceived ideas about climate and climatic change and analyses each of them in the light of the present day knowledge. Using this approach, it makes a status of the reality of the climatic change, of its causes and of the measures to be implemented to limit its impacts and reduce its most harmful consequences. (J.S.)

  8. Environmental risk of climate change and groundwater abstraction on stream ecological conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seaby, Lauren Paige; Bøgh, Eva; Jensen, Niels H.

    with DAISY, a one dimensional crop model describing soil water dynamics in the root zone, and MIKE SHE, a distributed groundwater-surface water model. The relative and combined impacts on low flows, groundwater levels, and nitrate leaching are quantified and compared to assess the water resource sensitivity...... and risk to stream ecological conditions. We find low flow and annual discharge to be most impacted by scenarios of climate change, with high variation across climate models (+/- 40% change). Doubling of current groundwater abstraction rates reduces annual discharge by approximately 20%, with higher...... flows and groundwater levels are of interest, as they relate to aquatic habitat and nitrate leaching, respectively. This study evaluates the risk to stream ecological conditions for a lowland Danish catchment under multiple scenarios of climate change and groundwater abstraction. Projections of future...

  9. Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

    2016-01-01

    Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

  10. Risk Analysis of Near-Coastal Species of the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Study Comparing Risks Associated with Two Future Climate Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fundamental questions for climate change policy and adaptation strategies are to what extent does ecological risk change under different climate scenarios and how do any changes in risk vary among taxa and geographically. To evaluate these questions, we developed a rule-based fra...

  11. Climate risk management for the U.S. cellulosic biofuels supply chain

    OpenAIRE

    Langholtz, Matthew; Webb, Erin; Preston, Benjamin L.; Turhollow, Anthony; Breuer, Norman; Eaton, Laurence; King, Anthony W.; Sokhansanj, Shahabaddine; Nair, Sujithkumar Surendran; Downing, Mark

    2014-01-01

    As U.S. energy policy turns to bioenergy, and second-generation biofuels in particular, to foster energy security and environmental benefits, consideration should be given to the implications of climate risk for the incipient bioenergy industry. As a case-in-point, we review evidence from the 2012 U.S. drought, underscoring the risk of extreme weather events to the agricultural sector in general, and the bioenergy supply chain in particular, including reductions in feedstock production and hi...

  12. Optimization of urban spatial development against flooding and other climate risks, and wider sustainability objectives

    OpenAIRE

    Caparros-Midwood Daniel; Dawson Richard; Barr Stuart

    2016-01-01

    A spatial optimization framework has been developed to help urban areas mitigate climate risks such as flooding and to curb resource use and greenhouse gas emissions. Measures required to address these issues often conflict with each other, for example more compact cities typically use less energy for transportation but increase runoff from high intensity rainfall events. Balancing potential trade-offs and maximizing synergies between these risks and vulnerabilities is therefore a multi-dimen...

  13. The impact of climate and price risks on agricultural land use and crop management decisions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lehmann, N.; Finger, R.

    2013-01-01

    This article aims to investigate the impacts of climate change and of lower and more volatile crop price levels as currently observed in the European Union (EU) on optimal management decisions, average income and income risks in crop production in Western Switzerland. To this end, a bioeconomic

  14. Economic analysis of adaptive strategies for flood risk management under climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Ierland, van E.C.; Gabbert, S.G.M.

    2017-01-01

    Climate change requires reconsideration of flood risk management strategies. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA), an economic decision-support tool, has been widely applied to assess these strategies. This paper aims to describe and discuss probabilistic extensions of CBA to identify welfare-maximising

  15. A Minimax Regret Analysis of Flood Risk Management Strategies Under Climate Change Uncertainty and Emerging Information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pol, van der T.D.; Gabbert, S.; Weikard, H.P.; Ierland, van E.C.; Hendrix, E.M.T.

    2017-01-01

    This paper studies the dynamic application of the minimax regret (MR) decision criterion to identify robust flood risk management strategies under climate change uncertainty and emerging information. An MR method is developed that uses multiple learning scenarios, for example about sea level rise

  16. Examining Long Term Climate Related Security Risks through the Use of Gaming and Scenario Planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-10-24

    for example, the India player felt they had to achieve near-peer military parity with the China and Southwest Asia players before they would invest...the game scenario, we use gender neutral pronouns (e.g., they, their) throughout. 1. David King et al., Climate Change: A Risk Assessment, ed

  17. Early Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors, Conflict Resolution Strategies, and School Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    LaRusso, Maria; Selman, Robert

    2011-01-01

    Drawing upon an ethnically and socio-economically diverse sample of 323 7th grade students from twelve urban schools within one school district, this mixed method study examined early adolescents' self-reported health risk behaviors as related to their conflict resolution strategies and their school's conflict resolution climate. Survey data…

  18. Framing climate change and spatial planning: how risk communication can be improved

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, J.

    2007-01-01

    Taking the role of frames into account may significantly add to the tools that have been developed for communication and learning on complex risks and benefits. As part of a larger multidisciplinary study into climate-related forms of sense-making this paper explores which frames are used by the

  19. A Critical Examination of the Climate Engineering Moral Hazard and Risk Compensation Concern

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Reynolds, J.L.(Jesse)

    The widespread concern that research into and potential implementation of climate engineering would reduce mitigation and adaptation is critically examined. First, empirical evidence of such moral hazard or risk compensation in general is inconclusive, and the empirical evidence to date in the case

  20. Teacher Behavioral Practices: Relations to Student Risk Behaviors, Learning Barriers, and School Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinez, Andrew; Mcmahon, Susan D.; Coker, Crystal; Keys, Christopher B.

    2016-01-01

    Student behavioral problems pose a myriad of challenges for schools. In this study, we examine the relations among teacher and school-level constructs (i.e., teacher collaboration, supervision/discipline, instructional management), and student-related outcomes (i.e., high-risk behaviors, barriers to learning, student social-behavioral climate).…

  1. Smallholder farmers’ attitudes and determinants of adaptation to climate risks in East Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Shikuku, Kelvin M.; Winowiecki, Leigh; Twyman, Jennifer; Eitzinger, Anton; Perez, Juan G.; Mwongera, Caroline; Läderach, Peter

    2017-01-01

    Adapting to climate risks is central to the goal of increasing food security and enhancing resilience of farming systems in East Africa. We examined farmers’ attitudes and assessed determinants of adaptation using data from a random sample of 500 households in Borana, Ethiopia; Nyando, Kenya;

  2. Potential Future Risk of Cholera Due to Climate Change in Northern ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Prof

    Cholera is one of the infectious diseases that remains a major health burden in ... this is because many factors that influence are these diseases (both climatic ... condition, education, and poverty reduction may reduce the risk of contracting cholera ... Research Organization in collaboration .... The dots on top represent the.

  3. Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

  4. Climate change: an amplifier of existing health risks in developing countries.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huynen, Maud; Martens, Pim

    2013-01-01

    Global warming is perceived as one of the biggest global health risks of the twenty-first century and a threat to the achievement of sustainable (economic) development; especially in developing countries, climate change is believed to further exacerbate existing vulnerability to disease and food

  5. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, M.; Kersebaum, K.C.; Olesen, J.E.; Ittersum, van M.K.; Janssen, S.J.C.; Rivington, M.; Semenov, M.A.; Wallach, D.; Porter, J.R.; Stewart, D.; Verhagen, J.; Gaiser, T.; Palosuo, T.; Tao, F.; Nendel, C.; Roggero, P.P.; Bartosová, L.; Asseng, S.

    2015-01-01

    The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess

  6. Synergistic effects of climate change and harvest on extinction risk of American ginseng.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Souther, Sara; McGraw, James B

    Over the next century, the conservation of biodiversity will depend not only on our ability to understand the effect of climate change, but also on our capacity to predict how other factors interact with climate change to influence species viability. We used American ginseng (Panax quinquefolius L.), the United States' premier wild-harvested medicinal, as a model system to ask whether the effect of harvest on extinction risk depends on changing climatic conditions. We performed stochastic projections of viability response to an increase in maximum growing-season temperature of 1°C over the next 70 years by sampling matrices from long-term demographic studies of 12 populations (representing 75 population-years of data). In simulations that included harvest and climate change, extinction risk at the median population size (N = 140) was 65%, far exceeding the additive effects of the two factors (extinction risk = 8% and 6% for harvest and climate change, respectively; quasi-extinction threshold = 20). We performed a life table response experiment (LTRE) to determine underlying causes of the effect of warming and harvest on deterministic λ (λd). Together, these factors decreased λd values primarily by reducing growth of juvenile and small adult plants to the large-adult stage, as well as decreasing stasis of the juveniles and large adults. The interaction observed in stochastic model results followed from a nonlinear increase in extinction risk as the combined impact of harvest and warming consistently reduced λ values below the demographic tipping point of λ = 1. While further research is needed to create specific recommendations, these findings indicate that ginseng harvest regulations should be revised to account for changing climate. Given the possibility of nonlinear response like that reported here, pre-emptive adaptation of management strategies may increase efficacy of biodiversity conservation by allowing behavior modification prior to precipitous

  7. Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bessette, Douglas L; Mayer, Lauren A; Cwik, Bryan; Vezér, Martin; Keller, Klaus; Lempert, Robert J; Tuana, Nancy

    2017-10-01

    Individuals use values to frame their beliefs and simplify their understanding when confronted with complex and uncertain situations. The high complexity and deep uncertainty involved in climate risk management (CRM) lead to individuals' values likely being coupled to and contributing to their understanding of specific climate risk factors and management strategies. Most mental model approaches, however, which are commonly used to inform our understanding of people's beliefs, ignore values. In response, we developed a "Values-informed Mental Model" research approach, or ViMM, to elicit individuals' values alongside their beliefs and determine which values people use to understand and assess specific climate risk factors and CRM strategies. Our results show that participants consistently used one of three values to frame their understanding of risk factors and CRM strategies in New Orleans: (1) fostering a healthy economy, wealth, and job creation, (2) protecting and promoting healthy ecosystems and biodiversity, and (3) preserving New Orleans' unique culture, traditions, and historically significant neighborhoods. While the first value frame is common in analyses of CRM strategies, the latter two are often ignored, despite their mirroring commonly accepted pillars of sustainability. Other values like distributive justice and fairness were prioritized differently depending on the risk factor or strategy being discussed. These results suggest that the ViMM method could be a critical first step in CRM decision-support processes and may encourage adoption of CRM strategies more in line with stakeholders' values. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  8. A multi-model analysis of risk of ecosystem shifts under climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Warszawski, Lila; Ostberg, Sebastian; Frieler, Katja; Lucht, Wolfgang; Schaphoff, Sibyll; Buechner, Matthias; Piontek, Franziska; Friend, Andrew; Keribin, Rozenn; Rademacher, Tim Tito; Beerling, David; Lomas, Mark; Cadule, Patricia; Ciais, Philippe; Clark, Douglas B; Kahana, Ron; Ito, Akihiko; Nishina, Kazuya; Kleidon, Axel; Pavlick, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may pose a high risk of change to Earth’s ecosystems: shifting climatic boundaries may induce changes in the biogeochemical functioning and structures of ecosystems that render it difficult for endemic plant and animal species to survive in their current habitats. Here we aggregate changes in the biogeochemical ecosystem state as a proxy for the risk of these shifts at different levels of global warming. Estimates are based on simulations from seven global vegetation models (GVMs) driven by future climate scenarios, allowing for a quantification of the related uncertainties. 5–19% of the naturally vegetated land surface is projected to be at risk of severe ecosystem change at 2 ° C of global warming (ΔGMT) above 1980–2010 levels. However, there is limited agreement across the models about which geographical regions face the highest risk of change. The extent of regions at risk of severe ecosystem change is projected to rise with ΔGMT, approximately doubling between ΔGMT = 2 and 3 ° C, and reaching a median value of 35% of the naturally vegetated land surface for ΔGMT = 4 °C. The regions projected to face the highest risk of severe ecosystem changes above ΔGMT = 4 °C or earlier include the tundra and shrublands of the Tibetan Plateau, grasslands of eastern India, the boreal forests of northern Canada and Russia, the savanna region in the Horn of Africa, and the Amazon rainforest. (letter)

  9. A cross-sectoral analysis of climate change risk drivers based on companies' responses to the CDP's climate change information request

    OpenAIRE

    Groth, Markus; Brunsmeier, Annette

    2016-01-01

    Companies are increasingly concerned with current and future climate change risks that have the potential to generate a substantial change in their business operations, revenue and/or expenditure. Therefore, the paper focusses on the companies' perspective and aims to create a higher awareness of companies' risk drivers when it comes to specific challenges of different sectors as well as each company within its sector. Based on companies' responses to the CDP's climate change information requ...

  10. Des données locales sur les changements climatiques assurent la ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    13 mai 2015 ... Les changements climatiques et la variabilité du climat représentent une menace importante pour l'agriculture, la sécurité alimentaire et les moyens de subsistance en Afrique subsaharienne.

  11. Improved climate risk simulations for rice in arid environments.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pepijn A J van Oort

    Full Text Available We integrated recent research on cardinal temperatures for phenology and early leaf growth, spikelet formation, early morning flowering, transpirational cooling, and heat- and cold-induced sterility into an existing to crop growth model ORYZA2000. We compared for an arid environment observed potential yields with yields simulated with default ORYZA2000, with modified subversions of ORYZA2000 and with ORYZA_S, a model developed for the region of interest in the 1990s. Rice variety 'IR64' was sown monthly 15-times in a row in two locations in Senegal. The Senegal River Valley is located in the Sahel, near the Sahara desert with extreme temperatures during day and night. The existing subroutines underestimated cold stress and overestimated heat stress. Forcing the model to use observed spikelet number and phenology and replacing the existing heat and cold subroutines improved accuracy of yield simulation from EF = -0.32 to EF =0.70 (EF is modelling efficiency. The main causes of improved accuracy were that the new model subversions take into account transpirational cooling (which is high in arid environments and early morning flowering for heat sterility, and minimum rather than average temperature for cold sterility. Simulations were less accurate when also spikelet number and phenology were simulated. Model efficiency was 0.14 with new heat and cold routines and improved to 0.48 when using new cardinal temperatures for phenology and early leaf growth. The new adapted subversion of ORYZA2000 offers a powerful analytic tool for climate change impact assessment and cropping calendar optimisation in arid regions.

  12. Students' Reactions to Climate Change Adaptation Risks and Opportunities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiel, M.; Grant, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Objectives/Scope How undergraduate (UG) business students at a major public university in the Rocky Mountain region develop appreciation, and some understanding of physical and natural sciences causing climate change (CC) and their implications for society through examples drawn from the students' immediate and meaningful physical environments. Methods, Procedures, Process Three regional examples of ways in which CC impacts the lives of students on the local campus will provide practical approaches for students' environmentally responsible actions beyond the classroom. The cases from different industries will help UG students learn how they play critical roles in preventing and managing natural hazards, disaster management, ecology, development, famine, and secure livelihoods. Observations, Results, Conclusions Classroom discussions of "businesses' ecological responsibilities" in some remote location often fail to "connect" with students who have spent most of their lives within 300 miles of campus. However, when businesses in Asia are adding particulate to the atmosphere in the jet stream over the Pacific, and subsequently graying the local ski slopes, causing early melting and delaying the start of ski seasons, that is a different matter! However, more summer activities offer economic opportunities! A second example is found among the local entrepreneurial woodworkers who take "beetle kill" pine trees that are wildfire hazards and convert them into beautiful, creatively described "blue pine" furniture, interior beams, wall panels and table-top decorations. The "industrial scale" anaerobic digesters used in the "circular economy" of giant cheese factories, dairy farms and packing plants offer a third example for linking business to chemistry, engineering, and aesthetics (odor reduction).

  13. Making sense of climate change risks and responses at the community level: A cultural-political lens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ainka A. Granderson

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available How to better assess, communicate and respond to risks from climate change at the community level have emerged as key questions within climate risk management. Recent research to address these questions centres largely on psychological factors, exploring how cognition and emotion lead to biases in risk assessment. Yet, making sense of climate change and its responses at the community level demands attention to the cultural and political processes that shape how risk is conceived, prioritized and managed. I review the emergent literature on risk perceptions and responses to climate change using a cultural-political lens. This lens highlights how knowledge, meaning and power are produced and negotiated across multiple stakeholders at the community level. It draws attention to the different ways of constructing climate change risks and suggests an array of responses at the community level. It further illustrates how different constructions of risk intersect with agency and power to shape the capacity for response and collective action. What matters are whose constructions of risk, and whose responses, count in decision-making. I argue for greater engagement with the interpretive social sciences in research, practice and policy. The interpretive social sciences offer theories and tools for capturing and problematising the ways of knowing, sense-making and mobilising around risks from climate change. I also highlight the importance of participatory approaches in incorporating the multiplicity of interests at the community level into climate risk management in fair, transparent and culturally appropriate ways.

  14. Climate change - An uncertainty factor in risk analysis of contaminated land

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Augustsson, Anna; Filipsson, Monika; Oberg, Tomas; Bergbaeck, Bo

    2011-01-01

    Metals frequently occur at contaminated sites, where their potential toxicity and persistence require risk assessments that consider possible long-term changes. Changes in climate are likely to affect the speciation, mobility, and risks associated with metals. This paper provides an example of how the climate effect can be inserted in a commonly used exposure model, and how the exposure then changes compared to present conditions. The comparison was made for cadmium (Cd) exposure to 4-year-old children at a highly contaminated iron and steel works site in southeastern Sweden. Both deterministic and probabilistic approaches (through probability bounds analysis, PBA) were used in the exposure assessment. Potential climate-sensitive variables were determined by a literature review. Although only six of the total 39 model variables were assumed to be sensitive to a change in climate (groundwater infiltration, hydraulic conductivity, soil moisture, soil:water distribution, and two bioconcentration factors), the total exposure was clearly affected. For example, by altering the climate-sensitive variables in the order of 15% to 20%, the deterministic estimate of exposure increased by 27%. Similarly, the PBA estimate of the reasonable maximum exposure (RME, defined as the upper bound of the 95th percentile) increased by almost 20%. This means that sites where the exposure in present conditions is determined to be slightly below guideline values may in the future exceed these guidelines, and risk management decisions could thus be affected. The PBA, however, showed that there is also a possibility of lower exposure levels, which means that the changes assumed for the climate-sensitive variables increase the total uncertainty in the probabilistic calculations. This highlights the importance of considering climate as a factor in the characterization of input data to exposure assessments at contaminated sites. The variable with the strongest influence on the result was the

  15. Attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and mitigation and adaptation behavior in Yunlin County, Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yung-Jaan; Tung, Chuan-Ming; Lin, Shih-Chien

    2018-02-08

    Issues that are associated with climate change have global importance. Most related studies take a national or regional perspective on the impact of climate change. Taiwan is constrained by its geographical conditions, which increase its vulnerability to climate change, especially in its western coastal areas. The county that is most affected by climate change is Yunlin. In 2013-2014, projects that were sponsored by Taiwan's government analyzed the relationship among synthesized vulnerability, ecological footprint (EF) and adaptation to climate change and proposed 15 categories of synthesized vulnerability and EF values. This study further examines the relationship between vulnerability and EF values and examines how residents of four townships-Linnei, Sihu, Mailiao, and Huwei-cope with the effects of climate change. This study investigates whether the residents of the four townships vary in their attitudes to climate change, their perceptions of disaster risk, and their behavioral intentions with respect to coping with climate change. The structural equation model (SEM) is used to examine the relationships among attitudes to climate change, perceptions of disaster risk, and the behavioral intentions of residents in townships with various vulnerabilities to climate change. The results that are obtained using the SEM reveal that climate change mitigation/adaptation behavior is affected by attitudes to climate change and perceptions of disaster risk. However, the effects of attitudes and perceptions on mitigation and adaptation that are mediated by place attachment are not statistically significant.

  16. The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast: A NOAA RISA Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2011-12-01

    The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast, or CCRUN, was funded in October 2010 under NOAA's Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program to serve stakeholder needs in assessing and managing risks from climate variability and change. It is currently also the only RISA team with a principal focus on climate change adaptation in urban settings. While CCRUN's initial focus is on the major cities of the urban Northeast corridor (Philadelphia, New York and Boston), its work will ultimately expand to cover small and medium-sized cities in the relevant portions of Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey and Pennsylvania as well, so that local needs for targeted climate-risk information can be served in a coordinated way. CCRUN is designed to address the complex challenges that are associated with densely populated, highly interconnected urban areas, including such as urban heat island effects; poor air quality; intense coastal development, and multifunctional settlement along inland waterways; complex overlapping institutional jurisdictions; integrated infrastructure systems; and highly diverse, and in some cases, fragile socio-economic communities. These challenges can best be addressed by the stakeholder-driven interdisciplinary approach taken by the CCRUN RISA team. As an important added benefit, the research accomplishments and lessons learned through stakeholder engagement will provide a foundation for managing climate risks in other urban areas in the United States. CCRUN's initial projects are focused in three broad sectors: Water, Coasts, and Health. Research in each of these sectors is linked through the cross-cutting themes of climate change and community vulnerability, the latter of which is especially important in considerations of environmental justice and equity. CCRUN's stakeholder-driven approach to research can therefore support investigations of the impacts of a changing climate, population growth, and

  17. Changes in field workability and drought risk from projected climate change drive spatially variable risks in Illinois cropping systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bradley J Tomasek

    Full Text Available As weather patterns become more volatile and extreme, risks introduced by weather variability will become more critical to agricultural production. The availability of days suitable for field work is driven by soil temperature and moisture, both of which may be altered by climate change. We projected changes in Illinois season length, spring field workability, and summer drought risk under three different emissions scenarios (B1, A1B, and A2 down to the crop district scale. Across all scenarios, thermal time units increased in parallel with a longer frost-free season. An increase in late March and Early April field workability was consistent across scenarios, but a decline in overall April through May workable days was observed for many cases. In addition, summer drought metrics were projected to increase for most scenarios. These results highlight how the spatial and temporal variability in climate change may present unique challenges to mitigation and adaptation efforts.

  18. Greenhouse policy without regrets. A free market approach to the uncertain risks of climate change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adler, J.H.

    2000-07-01

    Due to uncertainty about climate change, and human contributions thereto, many policymakers call for 'precautionary' measures to reduce the risk of global warming. Such policies are characterized as 'insurance'. Such insurance against the risks of climate change can be achieved by either lessening the likelihood of change by reducing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases through a combination of emission controls and carbon sequestration strategies, or by enacting mitigation measures to reduce the possible economic and ecological impact of a potential climate change. No insurance policy is worthwhile if the cost of the premiums exceeds the protection purchased. For greenhouse insurance to be worthwhile, it must either reduce the risks of anthropogenic climate change or reduce the costs of emission reductions designed to achieve the same goal, without imposing off-setting risks, such as those which would result from policies that slow economic growth and technological advance. Currently proposed precautionary measures, such as the Kyoto Protocol, call for government interventions to control greenhouse-gas emissions and suppress the use of carbon-based fuels. Such policies would impose substantial costs and yet do little, if anything, to reduce the risks of climate change. Such policies cannot be characterized as cost-effective greenhouse 'insurance'. Rather than adopt costly regulatory measures that serve to suppress energy use and economic growth, policy makers should seek to eliminate government interventions in the marketplace that obstruct emission reductions and discourage the adoption of lower emission technologies. Such an approach is a 'no regrets' strategy, as these policy recommendations will provide economic and environmental benefits by fostering innovation and economic efficiency whether or not climate change is a serious threat. While fear of global warming may prompt the enactment of these reforms, they merit implementation even if we have

  19. Impact of climate change on the domestic indoor environment and associated health risks in the UK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Dimitroulopoulou, Chrysanthi; Thornes, John; Lai, Ka-Man; Taylor, Jonathon; Myers, Isabella; Heaviside, Clare; Mavrogianni, Anna; Shrubsole, Clive; Chalabi, Zaid; Davies, Michael; Wilkinson, Paul

    2015-12-01

    There is growing evidence that projected climate change has the potential to significantly affect public health. In the UK, much of this impact is likely to arise by amplifying existing risks related to heat exposure, flooding, and chemical and biological contamination in buildings. Identifying the health effects of climate change on the indoor environment, and risks and opportunities related to climate change adaptation and mitigation, can help protect public health. We explored a range of health risks in the domestic indoor environment related to climate change, as well as the potential health benefits and unintended harmful effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation policies in the UK housing sector. We reviewed relevant scientific literature, focusing on housing-related health effects in the UK likely to arise through either direct or indirect mechanisms of climate change or mitigation and adaptation measures in the built environment. We considered the following categories of effect: (i) indoor temperatures, (ii) indoor air quality, (iii) indoor allergens and infections, and (iv) flood damage and water contamination. Climate change may exacerbate health risks and inequalities across these categories and in a variety of ways, if adequate adaptation measures are not taken. Certain changes to the indoor environment can affect indoor air quality or promote the growth and propagation of pathogenic organisms. Measures aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have the potential for ancillary public health benefits including reductions in health burdens related heat and cold, indoor exposure to air pollution derived from outdoor sources, and mould growth. However, increasing airtightness of dwellings in pursuit of energy efficiency could also have negative effects by increasing concentrations of pollutants (such as PM2.5, CO and radon) derived from indoor or ground sources, and biological contamination. These effects can largely be ameliorated by mechanical

  20. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

    2016-04-01

    More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

  1. An integrated method for assessing climate-related risks and adaptation alternatives in urban areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yvonne Andersson-Sköld

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The urban environment is a complex structure with interlinked social, ecological and technical structures. Global warming is expected to have a broad variety of impacts, which will add to the complexity. Climate changes will force adaptation, to reduce climate-related risks. Adaptation measures can address one aspect at the time, or aim for a holistic approach to avoid maladaptation. This paper presents a systematic, integrated approach for assessing alternatives for reducing the risks of heat waves, flooding and air pollution in urban settings, with the aim of reducing the risk of maladaptation. The study includes strategies covering different spatial scales, and both the current climate situation and the climate predicted under climate change scenarios. The adaptation strategies investigated included increasing vegetation; selecting density, height and colour of buildings; and retreat or resist (defend against sea-level rise. Their effectiveness was assessed with regard to not only flooding, heat stress and air quality but also with regard to resource use, emissions to air (incl. GHG, soil and water, and people’s perceptions and vulnerability. The effectiveness of the strategies were ranked on a common scale (from −3 to 3 in an integrated assessment. Integrated assessments are recommended, as they help identify the most sustainable solutions, but to reduce the risk of maladaptation they require experts from a variety of disciplines. The most generally applicable recommendation, derived from the integrated assessment here, taking into account both expertise from different municipal departments, literature surveys, life cycle assessments and publics perceptions, is to increase the urban greenery, as it contributes to several positive aspects such as heat stress mitigation, air quality improvement, effective storm-water and flood-risk management, and it has several positive social impacts. The most favourable alternative was compact, mid

  2. Assessment of winter wheat loss risk impacted by climate change from 1982 to 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Du, Xin

    2017-04-01

    The world's farmers will face increasing pressure to grow more food on less land in succeeding few decades, because it seems that the continuous population growth and agricultural products turning to biofuels would extend several decades into the future. Therefore, the increased demand for food supply worldwide calls for improved accuracy of crop productivity estimation and assessment of grain production loss risk. Extensive studies have been launched to evaluate the impacts of climate change on crop production based on various crop models drove with global or regional climate model (GCM/RCM) output. However, assessment of climate change impacts on agriculture productivity is plagued with uncertainties of the future climate change scenarios and complexity of crop model. Therefore, given uncertain climate conditions and a lack of model parameters, these methods are strictly limited in application. In this study, an empirical assessment approach for crop loss risk impacted by water stress has been established and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, United States, Germany, France and United Kingdom. The average value of winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress for the three countries of Europe is about -931kg/ha, which is obviously higher in contrast with that in China (-570kg/ha) and in United States (-367kg/ha). Our study has important implications for further application of operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or region scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapo-transpiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistic crop yield data, and establishing much more rational and elaborate zoning method.

  3. Exploração de fatores de risco para lesões no atletismo de alta performance Finding of risk factors for injuries in high performance athletics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carlos Marcelo Pastre

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Os fatores de risco para instalação de lesões do esporte têm sido pesquisados no sentido de facilitar o entendimento sobre o assunto. Contudo, para altos níveis de performance, nos eventos de pista e campo do atletismo, são escassos os documentos que abordam o tema. Assim, a partir da possibilidade de reunir informações sobre a condição descrita, objetivou-se com o presente estudo a exploração de fatores de risco para lesões desportivas no atletismo, a partir de inquérito aplicado a atletas da elite mundial da modalidade. A população foi composta por 60 homens e 60 mulheres alocados em grupos conforme a especificidade de sua modalidade (velocidade, resistência, arremessos e saltos. Realizou-se entrevista utilizando-se de inquérito de morbidade referida, abordando questões sobre variáveis antropométricas e de treinamento, assim como lesões. Utilizou-se a técnica da análise de variância paramétrica para as variáveis antropométricas (idade, peso, estatura e da técnica da análise de variância não paramétrica em relação às variáveis de treinamento (anos de treinamento e horas semanais. Para associação entre momento de lesão e especialidades, utilizou-se do teste de Goodman em nível de 5% de significância. Os resultados mostraram que houve elevada freqüência de lesões na modalidade em ambos os sexos. As taxas de lesão por atleta entrevistado foram de 0,92 (velocidade, 1,08 (resistência, 1,22 (saltos e 1,20 (arremessos. Não houve diferença estatisticamente significante para as variáveis antropométricas e de treinamento em relação às provas, com exceção dos saltadores, que apresentaram diferenças para estatura e tempo de treinamento; nesse caso, os acometidos são mais altos ou praticam atletismo há menos tempo (P The risk factors for installation of sports injuries have been researched to facilitate the understanding about the issue. However, for high performance levels, in the track and field

  4. 2. orientation council. National observatory on the climatic change effects in France and in overseas territories and Departments; 2. conseil d'orientation. Observatoire national sur les effets du rechauffement climatique en France metropolitaine et dans les departements et territoires d'outre-mer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2003-11-01

    This document provides the transparencies presented at the 2. orientation council concerning the climatic change effects. The participation of the ONERC to the colloquium on ''managers facing the climatic risks'', 23-24 june 2003 in Paris and the preparation to the technical assistance market, are discussed. The document presents also the heat wave of summer 2003 in France and the first reflexions on the adaptation. Some action principles are proposed. (A.L.B.)

  5. Early warning signal for dengue outbreaks and identification of high risk areas for dengue fever in Colombia using climate and non-climate datasets.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jung-Seok; Carabali, Mabel; Lim, Jacqueline K; Herrera, Victor M; Park, Il-Yeon; Villar, Luis; Farlow, Andrew

    2017-07-10

    Dengue has been prevalent in Colombia with high risk of outbreaks in various locations. While the prediction of dengue epidemics will bring significant benefits to the society, accurate forecasts have been a challenge. Given competing health demands in Colombia, it is critical to consider the effective use of the limited healthcare resources by identifying high risk areas for dengue fever. The Climate Risk Factor (CRF) index was constructed based upon temperature, precipitation, and humidity. Considering the conditions necessary for vector survival and transmission behavior, elevation and population density were taken into account. An Early Warning Signal (EWS) model was developed by estimating the elasticity of the climate risk factor function to detect dengue epidemics. The climate risk factor index was further estimated at the smaller geographical unit (5 km by 5 km resolution) to identify populations at high risk. From January 2007 to December 2015, the Early Warning Signal model successfully detected 75% of the total number of outbreaks 1 ~ 5 months ahead of time, 12.5% in the same month, and missed 12.5% of all outbreaks. The climate risk factors showed that populations at high risk are concentrated in the Western part of Colombia where more suitable climate conditions for vector mosquitoes and the high population level were observed compared to the East. This study concludes that it is possible to detect dengue outbreaks ahead of time and identify populations at high risk for various disease prevention activities based upon observed climate and non-climate information. The study outcomes can be used to minimize potential societal losses by prioritizing limited healthcare services and resources, as well as by conducting vector control activities prior to experiencing epidemics.

  6. Framing climate change and spatial planning: how risk communication can be improved.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, J

    2007-01-01

    Taking the role of frames into account may significantly add to the tools that have been developed for communication and learning on complex risks and benefits. As part of a larger multidisciplinary study into climate-related forms of sense-making this paper explores which frames are used by the citizens of Western European countries and, in particular, the Netherlands. Three recent multi-national public opinion surveys were analysed to examine beliefs about climate change in the context of beliefs about energy technology and concerns about other environmental issues, such as natural disasters. It appeared that many citizens had only vague ideas about the energy situation and that these do not constitute an unequivocal frame for climate issues. In contrast, the results suggest that the long-lasting rainfall and severe floods in Central Europe have had a significant impact. Climate change was often framed in a way that articulates its associations with rain- and river-based problems. This result is extremely important for risk communication, because especially in the Netherlands with its vulnerable coastal zones climate change may produce many more consequences than rain- and river-based problems only.

  7. Climate change risks and adaptation options across Australian seafood supply chains – A preliminary assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Fleming

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is already impacting the biology of the oceans and some dependent industries are in turn responding to these impacts. The development of response options for users of marine resources, such as fishers, is important in guiding adaptation efforts. However, harvesting fish is only the first step in a supply chain that delivers seafood to consumers. Impacts higher up the chain have seldom been considered in fisheries-climate research yet an understanding of these impacts and how climate risks and adaptation information are interpreted and used by stakeholders across the chain is vital for developing viable and sustainable adaptation options. We examined stakeholder perceptions of points where climate change impacts and adaptations currently occur, or may occur in the future, across the supply chains of several Australian fisheries (southern rock lobster, tropical rock lobster, prawn and aquaculture sectors (oyster, aquaculture prawn. We found that climate change impacts are well understood at the harvest stage and there is evidence of potential impacts and disruption to supply chains. Yet, there currently is no strong driver for change higher up the chain. Holistic adaptation planning along the supply chain, underpinned by targeted information and policy for the catch, processing and distribution, and marketing phases is needed. This effort is needed now, as some adaptation options have long lead times, and a delay in adaptation planning may limit future options. Given potential lead times and associated uncertainty, a risk-based approach is recommended with regard to adaptation planning for Australia’s seafood sector.

  8. Climate change and health: global to local influences on disease risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patz, J A; Olson, S H

    2006-01-01

    The World Health Organization has concluded that the climatic changes that have occurred since the mid 1970s could already be causing annually over 150,000 deaths and five million disability-adjusted life-years (DALY), mainly in developing countries. The less developed countries are, ironically, those least responsible for causing global warming. Many health outcomes and diseases are sensitive to climate, including: heat-related mortality or morbidity; air pollution-related illnesses; infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted, indirectly, via water or by insect or rodent vectors; and refugee health issues linked to forced population migration. Yet, changing landscapes can significantly affect local weather more acutely than long-term climate change. Land-cover change can influence micro-climatic conditions, including temperature, evapo-transpiration and surface run-off, that are key determinants in the emergence of many infectious diseases. To improve risk assessment and risk management of these synergistic processes (climate and land-use change), more collaborative efforts in research, training and policy-decision support, across the fields of health, environment, sociology and economics, are required.

  9. Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sperotto, Anna; Molina, José-Luis; Torresan, Silvia; Critto, Andrea; Marcomini, Antonio

    2017-11-01

    The evaluation and management of climate change impacts on natural and human systems required the adoption of a multi-risk perspective in which the effect of multiple stressors, processes and interconnections are simultaneously modelled. Despite Bayesian Networks (BNs) are popular integrated modelling tools to deal with uncertain and complex domains, their application in the context of climate change still represent a limited explored field. The paper, drawing on the review of existing applications in the field of environmental management, discusses the potential and limitation of applying BNs to improve current climate change risk assessment procedures. Main potentials include the advantage to consider multiple stressors and endpoints in the same framework, their flexibility in dealing and communicate with the uncertainty of climate projections and the opportunity to perform scenario analysis. Some limitations (i.e. representation of temporal and spatial dynamics, quantitative validation), however, should be overcome to boost BNs use in climate change impacts assessment and management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Risk and contributing factors of ecosystem shifts over naturally vegetated land under climate change in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yuanyuan; Tang, Qiuhong; Wang, Lixin; Liu, Xingcai

    2016-02-12

    Identifying the areas at risk of ecosystem transformation and the main contributing factors to the risk is essential to assist ecological adaptation to climate change. We assessed the risk of ecosystem shifts in China using the projections of four global gridded vegetation models (GGVMs) and an aggregate metric. The results show that half of naturally vegetated land surface could be under moderate or severe risk at the end of the 21(st) century under the middle and high emission scenarios. The areas with high risk are the Tibetan Plateau region and an area extended northeastward from the Tibetan Plateau to northeast China. With the three major factors considered, the change in carbon stocks is the main contributing factor to the high risk of ecosystem shifts. The change in carbon fluxes is another important contributing factor under the high emission scenario. The change in water fluxes is a less dominant factor except for the Tibetan Plateau region under the high emission scenario. Although there is considerable uncertainty in the risk assessment, the geographic patterns of the risk are generally consistent across different scenarios. The results could help develop regional strategies for ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change.

  11. Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banwell, Nicola; Rutherford, Shannon; Mackey, Brendan; Chu, Cordia

    2018-01-01

    Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links. PMID:29670057

  12. Science-based risk assessments for rare events in a changing climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobel, A. H.; Tippett, M. K.; Camargo, S. J.; Lee, C. Y.; Allen, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    History shows that substantial investments in protection against any specific type of natural disaster usually occur only after (usually shortly after) that specific type of disaster has happened in a given place. This is true even when it was well known before the event that there was a significant risk that it could occur. Presumably what psychologists Kahneman and Tversky have called "availability bias" is responsible, at least in part, for these failures to act on known but out-of-sample risks. While understandable, this human tendency prepares us poorly for events which are very rare (on the time scales of human lives) and even more poorly for a changing climate, as historical records become a poorer guide. A more forward-thinking and rational approach would require scientific risk assessments that can place meaningful probabilities on events that are rare enough to be absent from the historical record, and that can account for the influences of both anthropogenic climate change and low-frequency natural climate variability. The set of tools available for doing such risk assessments is still quite limited, particularly for some of the most extreme events such as tropical cyclones and tornadoes. We will briefly assess the state of the art for these events in particular, and describe some of our ongoing research to develop new tools for quantitative risk assessment using hybrids of statistical methods and physical understanding of the hazards.

  13. Environmental and climate security: improving scenario methodologies for science and risk assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briggs, C. M.; Carlsen, H.

    2010-12-01

    Governments and popular discussions have increasingly referred to concepts of ‘climate security’, often with reference to IPCC data. Development of effective methodologies to translate complex, scientific data into risk assessments has lagged, resulting in overly simplistic political assumptions of potential impacts. Climate security scenarios have been developed for use by security and military agencies, but effective engagement by scientific communities requires an improved framework. Effective use of data requires improvement both of climate projections, and the mapping of cascading impacts across interlinked, complex systems. In this research we propose a process for systematic generation of subsets of scenarios (of arbitrary size) from a given set of variables with possible interlinkages. The variables could include climatic changes as well as other global changes of concerns in a security context. In coping with possible challenges associated with the nexus of climate change and security - where deep structural uncertainty and possible irreversible changes are of primary interest - it is important to explore the outer limits of the relevant uncertainties. Therefore the proposed process includes a novel method that will help scenario developers in generating scenario sets where the scenarios are in a quantifiable sense maximally different and therefore best ‘span’ the whole set of scenarios. When downscaled onto a regional level, this process can provide guidance to potentially significant and abrupt geophysical changes, where high uncertainty has often prevented communication of risks. Potential physical changes can then be used as starting points for mapping cascading effects across networks, including topological analysis to identify critically vulnerable nodes and fragile systems, the existence of positive or negative feedback loops, and possible intervention points. Advanced knowledge of both potential geo-physical shifts and related non

  14. The nuclear option in front of climate change. Associated risks, limitations and inhibition to alternatives

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marignac, Yves; Besnard, Manon

    2015-10-01

    Within the context of struggle against climate change, the reduction of fossil energy consumption and of the associated carbon dioxide production is considered as the main lever of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, and nuclear energy is then a matter of debate as a massively available de-carbonated energy but presenting some unacceptable risks. In this synthesis, the authors first propose an overview of risks which cannot be separated from the use of nuclear energy: proliferation as a major, persistent and often ignored threat, a re-assessed and increasing risk of accident, and an accumulation of wastes, materials and sites. In a second part, they show that it has a limited efficiency on emission reduction: indirect but non-null CO 2 emissions, influence of the energy mix, marginal contribution to emission management, declining energetic and climatic role, limited field of action. In the third part, the authors state that nuclear energy could be an inhibitor to the most performing solutions

  15. Climatic and psychosocial risks of heat illness incidents on construction site.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yunyan Andrea; Rowlinson, Steve; Ciccarelli, Marina

    2016-03-01

    The study presented in this paper aims to identify prominent risks leading to heat illness in summer among construction workers that can be prioritised for developing effective interventions. Samples are 216 construction workers' cases at the individual level and 26 construction projects cases at the organisation level. A grounded theory is generated to define the climatic heat and psychosocial risks and the relationships between risks, timing and effectiveness of interventions. The theoretical framework is then used to guide content analysis of 36 individual onsite heat illness cases to identify prominent risks. The results suggest that heat stress risks on construction site are socially constructed and can be effectively managed through elimination at supply chain level, effective engineering control, proactive control of the risks through individual interventions and reactive control through mindful recognition and response to early symptoms. The role of management infrastructure as a base for effective interventions is discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

  16. Quantifying conditional risks for water and energy systems using climate information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lall, U.

    2016-12-01

    There has been a growing recognition of the multi-scale spatio-temporal organization of climate dynamics, and its implications for predictable, structured risk exposure to populations and infrastructure systems. At the most base level is an understanding that there are some identifiable climate modes, such as ENSO, that are associated with such outcomes. This has led to the emergence of a small cottage industry of analysts who relate different "climate indices" to specific regional outcomes. Such efforts and the associated media interest in these simplified "stories" have led to an increasing appreciation of the phenomenon, and some formal and informal efforts at decision making using such information. However, as was demonstrated through the 2014-16 El Nino forecasting season, many climate scientists over-emphasized the potential risks, while others cautioned the media as to the caveats and uncertainties associated with assuming that the forecasts of ENSO and the expected teleconnections may pan out. At least in certain sectors and regions, significant efforts or expectations as to outcomes were put in place, and some were beneficial, while others failed to manifest. Climate informed predictions for water and energy systems can be thought of as efforts to infer conditional distributions of specific outcomes given information on climate state. Invariably, the climate state may be presented as a very high dimensional spatial set of variables, with limited temporal sampling, while the water and energy attributes may be regional and constitute a much smaller dimension. One may, of course, be interested in the fact that the same climate state may lead to synchronous positive and negative effects across many locations, as may be expected under mid-latitude stationary and transient wave interaction. In this talk, I will provide examples of a few modern statistical and machine learning tools that allow a decomposition of the high dimensional climate state and its relation

  17. Extreme vulnerability of smallholder farmers to agricultural risks and climate change in Madagascar.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harvey, Celia A; Rakotobe, Zo Lalaina; Rao, Nalini S; Dave, Radhika; Razafimahatratra, Hery; Rabarijohn, Rivo Hasinandrianina; Rajaofara, Haingo; Mackinnon, James L

    2014-04-05

    Across the tropics, smallholder farmers already face numerous risks to agricultural production. Climate change is expected to disproportionately affect smallholder farmers and make their livelihoods even more precarious; however, there is limited information on their overall vulnerability and adaptation needs. We conducted surveys of 600 households in Madagascar to characterize the vulnerability of smallholder farmers, identify how farmers cope with risks and explore what strategies are needed to help them adapt to climate change. Malagasy farmers are particularly vulnerable to any shocks to their agricultural system owing to their high dependence on agriculture for their livelihoods, chronic food insecurity, physical isolation and lack of access to formal safety nets. Farmers are frequently exposed to pest and disease outbreaks and extreme weather events (particularly cyclones), which cause significant crop and income losses and exacerbate food insecurity. Although farmers use a variety of risk-coping strategies, these are insufficient to prevent them from remaining food insecure. Few farmers have adjusted their farming strategies in response to climate change, owing to limited resources and capacity. Urgent technical, financial and institutional support is needed to improve the agricultural production and food security of Malagasy farmers and make their livelihoods resilient to climate change.

  18. [Climate change risk of nature reserve and its assessment: A case study of Dalinuoer National Nature Reserve in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Wei; Shen, Wei Shou; Liu, Hai Yue

    2016-12-01

    According to the theoretical framework of addressing climate change based on risk mana-gement and the challenge to nature reserve management under climate change, climate change risk of nature reserve was analyzed and defined. Focus on birds and water habitat, grassland habitat, forest habitat, wetland habitat in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk assessment method of nature reserve under climate change was formulated, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were assessed and predicted. The results showed that, during the period from 1997 to 2010, there was significant volatility in dynamic changes of climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region, Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and its habitats were in status of risk in 1999, 2001, 2005 and 2008, wetland habitat was also in status of risk in 2002 and 2004. Under scenario A, B and C, climate change risks to Dalinuoer Nature Reserve and waterbody, grassland, forest, wetland in the region would be more serious in 2020 and 2030, compared with the 2010 level. Climate change risks to different habitats were different significantly, with most serious climate change risk to wetland habitat due to its sensitivity to climate change and rich bird resources. The effect of climate change on nature reserve and related risk would be aggravated by excess utilization of water resource and grassland resource. As climate change risks had appeared in Dalinuoer Nature Reserve, risk management associated with climate change could greatly help to maintain and enhance biodiversity protection function of nature reserves.

  19. Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ewert, F.; Rötter, R.P.; Bindi, M.

    2015-01-01

    . However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming...... climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables...

  20. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  1. Risk and vulnerability to global and climate change in South Africa

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Mambo, Julia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available of working group II to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [C.B. Field, V. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press.... Qin, Z. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. Averyt et al. (eds)]. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). 2012. Managing the risks of extreme events and disasters to advance...

  2. Carbon offsets, reversal risk and US climate policy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chen Yihsu

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background One controversial issue in the larger cap-and-trade debate is the proper use and certification of carbon offsets related to changes in land management. Advocates of an expanded offset supply claim that inclusion of such activities would expand the scope of the program and lower overall compliance costs, while opponents claim that it would weaken the environmental integrity of the program by crediting activities that yield either nonexistent or merely temporary carbon sequestration benefits. Our study starts from the premise that offsets are neither perfect mitigation instruments nor useless "hot air." Results We show that offsets provide a useful cost containment function, even when there is some threat of reversal, by injecting additional "when-flexibility" into the system. This allows market participants to shift their reduction requirements to periods of lower cost, thereby facilitating attainment of the least-cost time path without jeopardizing the cumulative environmental integrity of the system. By accounting for market conditions in conjunction with reversal risk, we develop a simple offset valuation methodology, taking into account the two most important factors that typically lead offsets to be overvalued or undervalued. Conclusion The result of this paper is a quantitative "model rule" that could be included in future legislation or used as a basis for active management by a future "carbon fed" or other regulatory authority with jurisdiction over the US carbon market to actively manage allowance prices.

  3. Spatial analysis of homicides in South East Brazil: An assessment of differential risk between men, women, and the youth / Analyse des homicides dans la région du Sud-Est du Brésil : une évaluation des risques différentiels chez les hommes, les femmes et les jeunes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diniz Alves Alexandre Magno

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Cette étude se base sur une perspective géographique et analyse l’évolution dans l’espace et dans le temps des taux moyens de morts par homicide dans la région du Sud-Est du Brésil, entre 2001 et 2008, chez les hommes, les femmes, les jeunes entre 15 et 29 ans, et l’ensemble de la population. Les résultats mettent en évidence que ce phénomène touche de manière asymétrique les jeunes hommes, tandis que chez les femmes les taux moyens sont les plus bas. L’analyse dans l’espace a souligné qu’il existe des zones avec des taux d’homicide élevés et stabilisés dans le temps, comme les régions métropolitaines de Rio de Janeiro et Vitória. En revanche, l’étude a montré qu’entre les régions métropolitaines de Belo Horizonte (RMBH, Campinas et San Paolo, les dynamiques sont différentes. This study is based on a geographical perspective and explores the spatial and temporal evolution of average homicide rates in Southeast Brazil, between 2001 and 2008 for different subpopulations (male, female, youth, and total population. Results show that this phenomenon affects asymmetrically young males, while women have the lowest average rates. Spatial analysis pinpoints consolidated areas with high homicide rates, such as the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro and Vitoria. On the other hand, different dynamics can be observed among the metropolitan areas of Belo Horizonte (BHMA, Campinas and Sao Paulo.

  4. Climate change induced risk analysis of Dar es Salaam city (Tanzania)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topa, Maria Elena; Herslund, Lise; Cavan, Gina; Printz, Andreas; Simonis, Ingo; Bucchignani, Edoardo; Jean-Baptiste, Nathalie; Hellevik, Siri; Johns, Regina; Kibassa, Deusdedit; Kweka, Clara; Magina, Fredrick; Mangula, Alpha; Mbuya, Elinorata; Uhinga, Guido; Kassenga, Gabriel; Kyessi, Alphonce; Shemdoe, Riziki; Kombe, Wilbard

    2013-04-01

    CLUVA (CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa; http://www.cluva.eu/) is a 3 years project, funded by the European Commission in 2010. The main objective of CLUVA is to develop context-centered methods and knowledge to be applied to African cities to assess vulnerabilities and increase knowledge on managing climate related risks. The project estimates the impacts of climate changes in the next 40 years at urban scale and downscales IPCC climate projections to evaluate specific threats to selected African test cities. These are mainly from floods, sea-level rise, droughts, heat waves, and desertification. The project evaluates and links: social vulnerability; urban green structures and ecosystem services; urban-rural interfaces; vulnerability of urban built environment and lifelines; and related institutional and governance dimensions of adaptation. The multi-scale and multi-disciplinary qualitative, quantitative and probabilistic approach of CLUVA is currently being applied to selected African test cities (Addis Ababa - Ethiopia; Dar es Salaam - Tanzania; Douala - Cameroun; Ouagadougou - Burkina Faso; St. Louis - Senegal). In particular, the poster will present preliminary findings for the Dar es Salaam case study. Dar es Salaam, which is Tanzania's largest coastal city, is exposed to floods, coastal erosion, droughts and heat waves, and highly vulnerable to impacts as a result of ineffective urban planning (about 70% unplanned settlements), poverty and lack of basic infrastructure (e.g. lack of or poor quality storm water drainage systems). Climate change could exacerbate the current situation increasing hazard-exposure alongside the impacts of development pressures which act to increase urban vulnerability for example because of informal (unregulated) urbanization. The CLUVA research team - composed of climate and environmental scientists, risk management experts, urban planners and social scientists from both European and African institutions - has

  5. THE RISK OF CLIMATE CHANGES ON ROMANIAN FORESTS UNDER THE IMPACT OF RAINFALLS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    OCTAVIA BOGDAN

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available The risk of climate changes on romanian forests under the impact of rainfalls. The risk of climate change on forests in Romania under the impact of precipitation. This paper is a continuation of studies published in the previous magazine Risks and Disasters, editor V. Sorocovschi, which treated the risk of climate change on forests induced by air temperature in Romania. This time, using the same methodology (Bogdan, Coconea, 2013 demonstrated that rainfall-induced climate changes, due to global warming, exert a risk to vegetation in general and forests in particular, but of a regional nature (tablel 1 . This is due to a complex of geographical factors (position, orographic barrier role, topoclimatic discontinuity alternating positive and negative forms of relief etc. and meteorological factors (enhancing or reducing atmospheric air circulation. The decennial analysis by floors of vegetation during 1961-2010 (table 3a-3h indicates that under conditions of increasing air temperature are likely to take place, both a decrease in precipitations (as in decades 3-4, as well as an increase, like in the last decade, 2001-2010, which was at the hottest. The cause lies in the intensification of heat stroke, the evaporation, thermal convection (especially in the hottest months of the year, which increases cloudiness and precipitation implicitly. The feedback reaction of forest ecosystems to climate change leads to the following conclusions: under the conditions of decreasing rainfall, the water storage in the soil lowers, the soil dryness increase eakens trees and increases resistance to wind-blown trees phenomenon, so that the forest loses its climate equilibrium role under increased rainfall, frequency of rain showers accompanied by hail and storms, there are foliaceous system destruction, intense erosion processes (leading to CO2 release from soil to the atmosphere and thunderstorms (which will generate increased forest fires and pollution, whereas

  6. Investment under uncertain climate policy: A practitioners' perspective on carbon risk

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barradale, Merrill Jones

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces the concept of payment probability as an important component of carbon risk (the financial risk associated with CO 2 emissions under uncertain climate policy). In modeling power plant investment decisions, most existing literature uses the expected carbon price (e.g., the price of traded permits or carbon tax) as a proxy for carbon risk. In contrast, this paper identifies expected carbon payment as a more accurate measure of carbon risk as perceived by industry practitioners. This measure of carbon risk incorporates both expected price and the probability that this price would actually be faced in the case of a particular investment. This concept helps explain both the surge of activity in 2005–2006 and the subsequent decline in interest in coal-fired power plant development in the U.S. The data for this case study comes from an extensive online survey of 700 U.S. energy professionals completed in 2006, as well as interviews conducted with industry representatives from 2007 to 2009. By analyzing industry views on policy uncertainty and future carbon legislation, we gain a better understanding of investor attitudes toward carbon risk. This understanding will help policy makers design better incentives for investing in low-carbon technologies. - Highlights: • A new model of carbon risk that incorporates payment probability is presented. • A survey of 700 U.S. energy professionals conducted in 2006 provides data on beliefs about future climate policy. • The vast majority of respondents expected climate policy to be enacted, but also expected it to be lax. • This data is used to analyze investor attitudes toward carbon risk

  7. A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

    2015-12-15

    Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  8. Assessing climate risks across different business sectors and industries: an investigation of methodological challenges at national scale for the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Surminski, Swenja; Di Mauro, Manuela; Baglee, J. Alastair R.; Connell, Richenda K.; Hankinson, Joel; Haworth, Anna R.; Ingirige, Bingunath; Proverbs, David

    2018-06-01

    Climate change poses severe risks for businesses, which companies as well as governments need to understand in order to take appropriate steps to manage those. This, however, represents a significant challenge as climate change risk assessment is itself a complex, dynamic and geographically diverse process. A wide range of factors including the nature of production processes and value chains, the location of business sites as well as relationships and interdependencies with customers and suppliers play a role in determining if and how companies are impacted by climate risks. This research explores the methodological challenges for a national-scale assessment of climate risks through the lens of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) process and compares the approaches adopted in the first and second UKCCRA (2011, 2016), while also reflecting on international experiences elsewhere. A review of these issues is presented, drawing on a wide body of contemporary evidence from a range of sources including the research disciplines, grey literature and government policy. The study reveals the methodological challenges and highlights six broad themes, namely scale, evidence base, adaptation responses, scope, interdependencies and public policy. The paper concludes by identifying suitable lessons for future national climate risk assessments, which should guide the next phase of research in preparation for UKCCRA3 and those of national-level risk assessments elsewhere. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

  9. Improving the use of crop models for risk assessment and climate change adaptation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challinor, Andrew J; Müller, Christoph; Asseng, Senthold; Deva, Chetan; Nicklin, Kathryn Jane; Wallach, Daniel; Vanuytrecht, Eline; Whitfield, Stephen; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Koehler, Ann-Kristin

    2018-01-01

    Crop models are used for an increasingly broad range of applications, with a commensurate proliferation of methods. Careful framing of research questions and development of targeted and appropriate methods are therefore increasingly important. In conjunction with the other authors in this special issue, we have developed a set of criteria for use of crop models in assessments of impacts, adaptation and risk. Our analysis drew on the other papers in this special issue, and on our experience in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 and the MACSUR, AgMIP and ISIMIP projects. The criteria were used to assess how improvements could be made to the framing of climate change risks, and to outline the good practice and new developments that are needed to improve risk assessment. Key areas of good practice include: i. the development, running and documentation of crop models, with attention given to issues of spatial scale and complexity; ii. the methods used to form crop-climate ensembles, which can be based on model skill and/or spread; iii. the methods used to assess adaptation, which need broadening to account for technological development and to reflect the full range options available. The analysis highlights the limitations of focussing only on projections of future impacts and adaptation options using pre-determined time slices. Whilst this long-standing approach may remain an essential component of risk assessments, we identify three further key components: 1.Working with stakeholders to identify the timing of risks. What are the key vulnerabilities of food systems and what does crop-climate modelling tell us about when those systems are at risk?2.Use of multiple methods that critically assess the use of climate model output and avoid any presumption that analyses should begin and end with gridded output.3.Increasing transparency and inter-comparability in risk assessments. Whilst studies frequently produce ranges that quantify uncertainty, the assumptions

  10. Erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico - the effects of climate and weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, Thomas; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Long, Joseph W.

    2016-04-01

    Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic

  11. How climate and weather affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahl, T.; Plant, N. G.

    2015-12-01

    Oceanographic variables such as mean sea level, tides, storm surges, and waves are drivers of erosion, and they act on different time scales ranging from hours (associated with weather) to seasonal and decadal variations and trends (associated with climate). Here we explore how the related sea-state conditions affect the erosion risk in the northern Gulf of Mexico for past and future climate scenarios. From the climate perspective we find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ~30% in the erosion risk since the 1980s; at least half of this increase was due to changes in the wave climate. In the next decades, sea level rise will likely become the dominating driver and may, in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario), escalate the erosion risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion risk in summer and decrease in winter (superimposed onto the long-term trends). The influence of weather is assessed with a copula-based multivariate sea storm model in a Monte-Carlo framework; i.e. we simulate hundreds of thousands of artificial but physically consistent sea-state conditions to quantify how different our understanding of the present day erosion risk would be if we had seen more or less extreme combinations of the different sea-state parameters over the last three decades. We find, for example, that total water levels (tide + surge + wave run-up) associated with 100-year return periods may be underestimated by up to 30% and that the average number of impact hours - when total water levels exceeded the height of the dune toe (collision) or dune crest (overwash) - could have been up to 50% higher than what we inferred based on the actually observed oceanographic conditions. Assessing erosion risk in such a probabilistic

  12. The influence of climate change on flood risks in France - first estimates and uncertainty analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumas, P.; Hallegatte, S.; Quintana-Seguì, P.; Martin, E.

    2013-03-01

    This paper proposes a methodology to project the possible evolution of river flood damages due to climate change, and applies it to mainland France. Its main contributions are (i) to demonstrate a methodology to investigate the full causal chain from global climate change to local economic flood losses; (ii) to show that future flood losses may change in a very significant manner over France; (iii) to show that a very large uncertainty arises from the climate downscaling technique, since two techniques with comparable skills at reproducing reference river flows give very different estimates of future flows, and thus of future local losses. The main conclusion is thus that estimating future flood losses is still out of reach, especially at local scale, but that future national-scale losses may change significantly over this century, requiring policy changes in terms of risk management and land-use planning.

  13. The evolving local social contract for managing climate and disaster risk in Vietnam.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christoplos, Ian; Ngoan, Le Duc; Sen, Le Thi Hoa; Huong, Nguyen Thi Thanh; Lindegaard, Lily Salloum

    2017-07-01

    How do disasters shape local government legitimacy in relation to managing climate- and disaster-related risks? This paper looks at how local authorities in Central Vietnam perceive their social contract for risk reduction, including the partial merging of responsibilities for disaster risk management with new plans for and investments in climate change adaptation and broader socioeconomic development. The findings indicate that extreme floods and storms constitute critical junctures that stimulate genuine institutional change. Local officials are proud of their strengthened role in disaster response and they are eager to boost investment in infrastructure. They have struggled to reinforce their legitimacy among their constituents, but given the shifting roles of the state, private sector, and civil society, and the undiminished emphasis on high-risk development models, their responsibilities for responding to emerging climate change scenarios are increasingly nebulous. The past basis for legitimacy is no longer valid, but tomorrow's social contract is not yet defined. © 2017 The Author(s). Disasters © Overseas Development Institute, 2017.

  14. Analysis of regional natural flow for evaluation of flood risk according to RCP climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, J. Y.; Chae, B. S.; Wi, S.; KIm, T. W.

    2017-12-01

    Various climate change scenarios expect the rainfall in South Korea to increase by 3-10% in the future. The future increased rainfall has significant effect on the frequency of flood in future as well. This study analyzed the probability of future flood to investigate the stability of existing and new installed hydraulic structures and the possibility of increasing flood damage in mid-sized watersheds in South Korea. To achieve this goal, we first clarified the relationship between flood quantiles acquired from the flood-frequency analysis (FFA) and design rainfall-runoff analysis (DRRA) in gauged watersheds. Then, after synthetically generating the regional natural flow data according to RCP climate change scenarios, we developed mathematical formulas to estimate future flood quantiles based on the regression between DRRA and FFA incorporated with regional natural flows in unguaged watersheds. Finally, we developed a flood risk map to investigate the change of flood risk in terms of the return period for the past, present, and future. The results identified that the future flood quantiles and risks would increase in accordance with the RCP climate change scenarios. Because the regional flood risk was identified to increase in future comparing with the present status, comprehensive flood control will be needed to cope with extreme floods in future.

  15. 76 FR 44301 - Information Collection; Homeowner Risk Reduction Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-07-25

    ... the design of more effective risk mitigation projects and improved communication strategies among.... This information will assist the Forest Service in their risk communication efforts with ``at risk... of California State University of Long Beach, Long Beach, California. The results will be made...

  16. Impact of climate change on heavy precipitation events of the Mediterranean basin; Impact du changement climatique sur les evenements de pluie intense du bassin mediterraneen

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ricard, D.; Beaulant, A.L.; Deque, M.; Ducrocq, V.; Joly, A.; Joly, B.; Martin, E.; Nuissier, O.; Quintana Segui, P.; Ribes, A.; Sevault, F.; Somot, S. [Meteo-France et CNRS, Groupe d' Etude de l' Atmosphere Meteorologique (GAME), 31 - Toulouse (France); Boe, J. [California Univ., Dept. of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2009-11-15

    A second topic covered by the CYPRIM project aims to characterize the evolution of heavy precipitation events in Mediterranean in the context of climate change. To this end, a continuous climate simulation from 1960 to 2099 has been run using a regional ocean-atmosphere coupled model under IPCC A2 emission scenario. Various techniques of down-scaling, down to the very fine 2 km scale, and methods to highlight synoptic environments favourable to heavy rain, have been used to estimate the impact of climate change on precipitation and hydrology over South-East France, both for the whole autumn season and the heavy rain events. (authors)

  17. Participatory Climate Research in a Dynamic Urban Context: Activities of the Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Montalto, Franco; Solecki, William

    2016-01-01

    The Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (CCRUN), one of ten NOAA-RISAs, supports resilience efforts in the urban corridor stretching from Philadelphia to Boston. Challenges and opportunities include the diverse set of needs in broad urban contexts, as well as the integration of interdisciplinary perspectives. CCRUN is addressing these challenges through strategies including: 1) the development of an integrated project framework, 2) stakeholder surveys, 3) leveraging extreme weather events as focusing opportunities, and 4) a seminar series that enables scientists and stakeholders to partner. While recognizing that the most extreme weather events will always lead to surprises (even with sound planning), CCRUN endeavors to remain flexible by facilitating place-based research in an interdisciplinary context.

  18. An integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for climate change and malaria transmission in East Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Onyango, Esther Achieng; Sahin, Oz; Awiti, Alex; Chu, Cordia; Mackey, Brendan

    2016-11-11

    Malaria is one of the key research concerns in climate change-health relationships. Numerous risk assessments and modelling studies provide evidence that the transmission range of malaria will expand with rising temperatures, adversely impacting on vulnerable communities in the East African highlands. While there exist multiple lines of evidence for the influence of climate change on malaria transmission, there is insufficient understanding of the complex and interdependent factors that determine the risk and vulnerability of human populations at the community level. Moreover, existing studies have had limited focus on the nature of the impacts on vulnerable communities or how well they are prepared to cope. In order to address these gaps, a systems approach was used to present an integrated risk and vulnerability assessment framework for studies of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria due to climate change. Drawing upon published literature on existing frameworks, a systems approach was applied to characterize the factors influencing the interactions between climate change and malaria transmission. This involved structural analysis to determine influential, relay, dependent and autonomous variables in order to construct a detailed causal loop conceptual model that illustrates the relationships among key variables. An integrated assessment framework that considers indicators of both biophysical and social vulnerability was proposed based on the conceptual model. A major conclusion was that this integrated assessment framework can be implemented using Bayesian Belief Networks, and applied at a community level using both quantitative and qualitative methods with stakeholder engagement. The approach enables a robust assessment of community level risk and vulnerability to malaria, along with contextually relevant and targeted adaptation strategies for dealing with malaria transmission that incorporate both scientific and community perspectives.

  19. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  20. A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

    2017-05-01

    Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

  1. Farmer perceptions of climate change risk and associated on-farm management strategies in Vermont, northeastern United States

    OpenAIRE

    Schattman, Rachel E.; Conner, David; Méndez, V. Ernesto

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Little research has been conducted on how agricultural producers in the northeastern United States conceptualize climate-related risk and how these farmers address risk through on-farm management strategies. Two years following Tropical Storm Irene, our team interviewed 15 farmers in order to investigate their perceptions of climate-related risk and how their decision-making was influenced by these perceptions. Our results show that Vermont farmers are concerned with both ecological ...

  2. Climate Change and Children: Health Risks of Abatement Inaction, Health Gains from Action

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anthony J McMichael

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available As human-driven climate change advances, many adults fret about the losses of livelihoods, houses and farms that may result. Children fret about their parents’ worries and about information they hear, but do not really understand about the world’s climate and perhaps about their own futures. In chronically worried or anxious children, blood cortisol levels rise and adverse changes accrue in various organ systems that prefigure adult-life diseases. Meanwhile, for many millions of children in poor countries who hear little news and live with day-to-day fatalism, climate change threatens the fundamentals of life—food sufficiency, safe drinking water and physical security—and heightens the risks of diarrhoeal disease, malaria and other climate-sensitive infections. Poor and disadvantaged populations, and especially their children, will bear the brunt of climate-related trauma, disease and premature death over the next few decades and, less directly, from social disruption, impoverishment and displacement. The recent droughts in Somalia as the Indian Ocean warmed and monsoonal rains failed, on top of chronic civil war, forced hundreds of thousands of Somali families into north-eastern Kenya’s vast Dadaab refugee camps, where, for children, shortages of food, water, hygiene and schooling has endangered physical, emotional and mental health. Children warrant special concern, both as children per se and as the coming generation likely to face ever more extreme climate conditions later this century. As children, they face diverse risks, from violent weather, proliferating aeroallergens, heat extremes and mobilised microbes, through to reduced recreational facilities, chronic anxieties about the future and health hazards of displacement and local resource conflict. Many will come to regard their parents’ generation and complacency as culpable.

  3. Stakeholder dialogues. Opportunities and risks of climate change; Stakeholder-Dialoge. Chancen und Risiken des Klimawandels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Esther; Gebauer, Jana; Dunkelberg, Elisa; Hirschfeld, Jesko; Hirschl, Bernd; Rotter, Maja; Stegnitz, Antje; Wurbs, Sven [Institut fuer oekologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IOeW), Berlin (Germany); Lotz, Wiebke; Welp, Martin [Hochschule fuer nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (F.H.) (Germany)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change as a global problem has specific local effects, which in addition to natural areas also affect social and technical systems. The consequences of climate change will differ concerning the different sectors and regions and can be associated with both risks and opportunities to be. To effectively protect against risks, but to also use opportunities, appropriate adaptation measures are needed. In this context, the Competence Centre on Climate Impacts and Adaptation in the Federal Environmental Agency (KomPass) introduced in 2009 and 2010 a series of stakeholder dialogues that culminated in a cross-thematic and cross-sectoral national conference ''Already adapted?''. The events were part of the research project ''Stakeholder Dialogues: Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change'', conducted by the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IOeW) in cooperation with the University of Applied Sciences Eberswalde. Some dialogues were held in cooperation with partners from respective associations or authorities. The National Dialogue took place in cooperation with the agency compass orange. The aim of the dialogues was one hand to capture the need for action resulting from climate change, and analyze and develop approaches to adaptation strategies.The different sectors and industries were represented by associations and companies, ministries and authorities and by civil society and academia. On the other hand adaptation needs, demands on the political framework, and research and cooperation needs should be be assessed and analyzed in an interdisciplinary process. From this, KomPass will derive recommendations for the design of the national Action Plan Adaptation and feed into the ongoing process. (orig.)

  4. How do Changes in Hydro-Climate Conditions Alter the Risk of Infection With Fasciolosis?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, L.; Dunne, T.; Rose, H.; Walker, J.; Morgan, E.; Vickerman, P.; Wagener, T.

    2017-12-01

    Fasciolosis is a widespread parasitic disease of livestock and is emerging as a major zoonosis. Since the parasite and its intermediate host live and develop in the environment, risk of infection is directly affected by climatic-environmental conditions. Changes in disease prevalence, seasonality and distribution have been reported in recent years and attributed to altered temperature and rainfall patterns, raising concerns about the effects of climate change in the future. Therefore, it is urgent to understand how changes in climate-environmental drivers may alter the dynamics of disease risk in a quantitative way, to guide parasite control strategies and interventions in the coming decades. In a previous work, we developed and tested a novel mechanistic hydro-epidemiological model for Fasciolosis, which explicitly represents the parasite life-cycle in connection with key environmental processes, allowing to capture the impact of previously unseen conditions. In this study, we use the new mechanistic model to assess the sensitivity of infection rates to changes in climate-environmental factors. This is challenging as processes underlying disease transmission are complex and interacting, and may have contrasting effects on the parasite life-cycle stages. To this end, we set up a sensitivity analysis framework to investigate in a structured way which factors play a key role in controlling the magnitude, timing and spread of infection, and how the sensitivity of disease risk varies in time and space. Moreover, we define synthetic scenarios to explore the space of possible variability of the hydro-climate drivers and investigate conditions that lead to critical levels of infection. The study shows how the new model combined with the sensitivity analysis framework can support decision-making, providing useful information for disease management.

  5. Stakeholder dialogues. Opportunities and risks of climate change; Stakeholder-Dialoge. Chancen und Risiken des Klimawandels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Esther; Gebauer, Jana; Dunkelberg, Elisa; Hirschfeld, Jesko; Hirschl, Bernd; Rotter, Maja; Stegnitz, Antje; Wurbs, Sven [Institut fuer oekologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IOeW), Berlin (Germany); Lotz, Wiebke; Welp, Martin [Hochschule fuer nachhaltige Entwicklung Eberswalde (F.H.) (Germany)

    2011-02-15

    Climate change as a global problem has specific local effects, which in addition to natural areas also affect social and technical systems. The consequences of climate change will differ concerning the different sectors and regions and can be associated with both risks and opportunities to be. To effectively protect against risks, but to also use opportunities, appropriate adaptation measures are needed. In this context, the Competence Centre on Climate Impacts and Adaptation in the Federal Environmental Agency (KomPass) introduced in 2009 and 2010 a series of stakeholder dialogues that culminated in a cross-thematic and cross-sectoral national conference ''Already adapted?''. The events were part of the research project ''Stakeholder Dialogues: Opportunities and Risks of Climate Change'', conducted by the Institute for Ecological Economy Research (IOeW) in cooperation with the University of Applied Sciences Eberswalde. Some dialogues were held in cooperation with partners from respective associations or authorities. The National Dialogue took place in cooperation with the agency compass orange. The aim of the dialogues was one hand to capture the need for action resulting from climate change, and analyze and develop approaches to adaptation strategies.The different sectors and industries were represented by associations and companies, ministries and authorities and by civil society and academia. On the other hand adaptation needs, demands on the political framework, and research and cooperation needs should be be assessed and analyzed in an interdisciplinary process. From this, KomPass will derive recommendations for the design of the national Action Plan Adaptation and feed into the ongoing process. (orig.)

  6. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006-2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anyamba, Assaf; Chretien, Jean-Paul; Small, Jennifer; Tucker, Compton J; Linthicum, Kenneth J

    2006-12-28

    El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC) has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July - October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 - January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications are that the following regions are at increased

  7. Developing global climate anomalies suggest potential disease risks for 2006 – 2007

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tucker Compton J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO related climate anomalies have been shown to have an impact on infectious disease outbreaks. The Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/CPC has recently issued an unscheduled El Niño advisory, indicating that warmer than normal sea surface temperatures across the equatorial eastern Pacific may have pronounced impacts on global tropical precipitation patterns extending into the northern hemisphere particularly over North America. Building evidence of the links between ENSO driven climate anomalies and infectious diseases, particularly those transmitted by insects, can allow us to provide improved long range forecasts of an epidemic or epizootic. We describe developing climate anomalies that suggest potential disease risks using satellite generated data. Results Sea surface temperatures (SSTs in the equatorial east Pacific ocean have anomalously increased significantly during July – October 2006 indicating the typical development of El Niño conditions. The persistence of these conditions will lead to extremes in global-scale climate anomalies as has been observed during similar conditions in the past. Positive Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR anomalies, indicative of severe drought conditions, have been observed across all of Indonesia, Malaysia and most of the Philippines, which are usually the first areas to experience ENSO-related impacts. This dryness can be expected to continue, on average, for the remainder of 2006 continuing into the early part of 2007. During the period November 2006 – January 2007 climate forecasts indicate that there is a high probability for above normal rainfall in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Islands, the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. Gulf Coast and Florida, northern South America and equatorial east Africa. Taking into consideration current observations and climate forecast information, indications

  8. Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich; Donges, Jonathan F; Donner, Reik V; Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim

    2016-08-16

    Social and political tensions keep on fueling armed conflicts around the world. Although each conflict is the result of an individual context-specific mixture of interconnected factors, ethnicity appears to play a prominent and almost ubiquitous role in many of them. This overall state of affairs is likely to be exacerbated by anthropogenic climate change and in particular climate-related natural disasters. Ethnic divides might serve as predetermined conflict lines in case of rapidly emerging societal tensions arising from disruptive events like natural disasters. Here, we hypothesize that climate-related disaster occurrence enhances armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, we test this hypothesis based on data on armed-conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980-2010. Globally, we find a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed-conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence such as heat waves or droughts. Our analysis also reveals that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincide with climatic calamities. Although we do not report evidence that climate-related disasters act as direct triggers of armed conflicts, the disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world's most conflict-prone regions, including North and Central Africa as well as Central Asia, are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.

  9. Using changes in agricultural utility to quantify future climate-induced risk to conservation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Estes, Lyndon D; Paroz, Lydie-Line; Bradley, Bethany A; Green, Jonathan M H; Hole, David G; Holness, Stephen; Ziv, Guy; Oppenheimer, Michael G; Wilcove, David S

    2014-04-01

    Much of the biodiversity-related climate change impacts research has focused on the direct effects to species and ecosystems. Far less attention has been paid to the potential ecological consequences of human efforts to address the effects of climate change, which may equal or exceed the direct effects of climate change on biodiversity. One of the most significant human responses is likely to be mediated through changes in the agricultural utility of land. As farmers adapt their practices to changing climates, they may increase pressure on some areas that are important to conserve (conservation lands) whereas lessening it on others. We quantified how the agricultural utility of South African conservation lands may be altered by climate change. We assumed that the probability of an area being farmed is linked to the economic benefits of doing so, using land productivity values to represent production benefit and topographic ruggedness as a proxy for costs associated with mechanical workability. We computed current and future values of maize and wheat production in key conservation lands using the DSSAT4.5 model and 36 crop-climate response scenarios. Most conservation lands had, and were predicted to continue to have, low agricultural utility because of their location in rugged terrain. However, several areas were predicted to maintain or gain high agricultural utility and may therefore be at risk of near-term or future conversion to cropland. Conversely, some areas were predicted to decrease in agricultural utility and may therefore prove easier to protect from conversion. Our study provides an approximate but readily transferable method for incorporating potential human responses to climate change into conservation planning. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  10. City of Iqaluit's climate change impacts, infrastructure risks and adaptive capacity project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nielsen, D.; Kronenberger, J.

    2007-03-01

    The City of Iqaluit is an Arctic community that is very susceptible to the stresses of climate change. The city is challenged by increased flooding, coastal erosion and ground instability caused by melting of the permafrost layer. In response, the City of Iqaluit has created policies to reduce greenhouse gases and act on climate change. A project has also been launched to develop adaptation strategies, with particular focus on infrastructure vulnerability given the environmental and climate change in the Canadian Arctic. The purpose of the study is to evaluate the biophysical exposure and hazards on Arctic coasts subject to effects of climate change, identify past and current management strategies used to manage risks in coastal communities which have already experienced environmental change, and to evaluate the adaptive capacity of communities for dealing with coastal hazards throughout the Arctic. This document identified the risks to Iqaluit's infrastructure, including buildings, roads, water supply, wastewater treatment and waste disposal systems. Adaptation options were also developed. These ranged from educational programs and retrofits to policy changes and building standard amendments. refs., tabs., figs

  11. Informing the NCA: EPA's Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis Framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sarofim, M. C.; Martinich, J.; Kolian, M.; Crimmins, A. R.

    2017-12-01

    The Climate Change Impact and Risk Analysis (CIRA) framework is designed to quantify the physical impacts and economic damages in the United States under future climate change scenarios. To date, the framework has been applied to 25 sectors, using scenarios and projections developed for the Fourth National Climate Assessment. The strength of this framework has been in the use of consistent climatic, socioeconomic, and technological assumptions and inputs across the impact sectors to maximize the ease of cross-sector comparison. The results of the underlying CIRA sectoral analyses are informing the sustained assessment process by helping to address key gaps related to economic valuation and risk. Advancing capacity and scientific literature in this area has created opportunity to consider future applications and strengthening of the framework. This presentation will describe the CIRA framework, present results for various sectors such as heat mortality, air & water quality, winter recreation, and sea level rise, and introduce potential enhancements that can improve the utility of the framework for decision analysis.

  12. The Relative Impact of Climate Change on the Extinction Risk of Tree Species in the Montane Tropical Andes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tejedor Garavito, Natalia; Newton, Adrian C; Golicher, Duncan; Oldfield, Sara

    2015-01-01

    There are widespread concerns that anthropogenic climate change will become a major cause of global biodiversity loss. However, the potential impact of climate change on the extinction risk of species remains poorly understood, particularly in comparison to other current threats. The objective of this research was to examine the relative impact of climate change on extinction risk of upper montane tree species in the tropical Andes, an area of high biodiversity value that is particularly vulnerable to climate change impacts. The extinction risk of 129 tree species endemic to the region was evaluated according to the IUCN Red List criteria, both with and without the potential impacts of climate change. Evaluations were supported by development of species distribution models, using three methods (generalized additive models, recursive partitioning, and support vector machines), all of which produced similarly high AUC values when averaged across all species evaluated (0.82, 0.86, and 0.88, respectively). Inclusion of climate change increased the risk of extinction of 18-20% of the tree species evaluated, depending on the climate scenario. The relative impact of climate change was further illustrated by calculating the Red List Index, an indicator that shows changes in the overall extinction risk of sets of species over time. A 15% decline in the Red List Index was obtained when climate change was included in this evaluation. While these results suggest that climate change represents a significant threat to tree species in the tropical Andes, they contradict previous suggestions that climate change will become the most important cause of biodiversity loss in coming decades. Conservation strategies should therefore focus on addressing the multiple threatening processes currently affecting biodiversity, rather than focusing primarily on potential climate change impacts.

  13. Working with South Florida County Planners to Understand and Mitigate Uncertain Climate Risks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knopman, D.; Groves, D. G.; Berg, N.

    2017-12-01

    This talk describes a novel approach for evaluating climate change vulnerabilities and adaptations in Southeast Florida to support long-term resilience planning. The work is unique in that it combines state-of-the-art hydrologic modeling with the region's long-term land use and transportation plans to better assess the future climate vulnerability and adaptations for the region. Addressing uncertainty in future projections is handled through the use of decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods. Study findings, including analysis of key tradeoffs, were conveyed to the region's stakeholders through an innovative web-based decision support tool. This project leverages existing groundwater models spanning Miami-Dade and Broward Counties developed by the USGS, along with projections of land use and asset valuations for Miami-Dade and Broward County planning agencies. Model simulations are executed on virtual cloud-based servers for a highly scalable and parallelized platform. Groundwater elevations and the saltwater-freshwater interface and intrusion zones from the integrated modeling framework are analyzed under a wide range of long-term climate futures, including projected sea level rise and precipitation changes. The hydrologic hazards are then combined with current and future land use and asset valuation projections to estimate assets at risk across the range of futures. Lastly, an interactive decision support tool highlights the areas with critical climate vulnerabilities; distinguishes between vulnerability due to new development, increased climate hazards, or both; and provides guidance for adaptive management and development practices and decisionmaking in Southeast Florida.

  14. Climate Change Perceptions of NY State Farmers: The Role of Risk Perceptions and Adaptive Capacity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahashi, Bruno; Burnham, Morey; Terracina-Hartman, Carol; Sopchak, Amanda R.; Selfa, Theresa

    2016-12-01

    Climate change is expected to severely impact agricultural practices in many important food-producing regions, including the Northeast United States. Changing climate conditions, such as increases in the amount of rainfall, will require farmers to adapt. Yet, little is known with regard to farmers' perceptions and understandings about climate change, especially in the industrialized country context. This paper aims at overcoming this research limitation, as well as determining the existing contextual, cognitive, and psychological barriers that can prevent adoption of sustainable practices of farmers in New York State. The study is framed within the adaptive capacity and risk perception literature, and is based on a qualitative analysis of in-depth interviews with farmers in 21 farms in two counties in Central New York. The results reveal diverging views about the long-term consequences of climate change. Results also reveal that past experience remains as the most important source of information that influences beliefs and perceptions about climate change, confirming previous research.

  15. Essai de Phytoclimatologie dynamique dans le nord du Portugal, et réflexion sur les climats mediterranéens portugais

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ana Isabel D. Correia

    1996-05-01

    Full Text Available A STUDY IN DYNAMIC PHYTOCLIMATOLOGY IN THE NORTH OF PORTUGAL AND THE QUESTION OF MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATES IN PORTUGAL - The climate-vegetation relation in the north of Portugal is studied in a new way. The dynamic continuity of the climate is revealed by the existence of botanical "continuums". The vegetation sampling was made along a continous NW-SE line transect, 185 km long, parallel to the strongest pluviometric gradient. Multivariate analysis and some of the applications of the information theory were used in the floristic study. In the climate study the spatial patterns of daily values of precipitation were analysed for a period of three years. This description was also done by means of multivariate analysis, including CCA for the aerological explanation. A "threshold of hydric satisfaction", around 1400mm of mean annual rainfall seems to determine the existence of an Atlantic vegetation, between the Alvão and Falperra mountains and the Ocean. This vegetation is homogeneous because it does not respond to the udometric variations above this level. To the east, the Atlantic vegetation rapidly dissapears. The comparison between daily precipitation regimes in the different stations and the dynamic interpretation of the differences bring some light to the discussion about the climate in the NW of the Iberian Peninsula: is it an Atlantic or a Mediterranean climate? In the maritime coast of Portugal these two influences mingle, as opposed to the sheltered interior provinces.

  16. Impact of climate change on management plans for lakes St. Francois and Aylmer in southern Quebec; Impact des changements climatiques sur les plans de gestion des lacs Saint-Francois et Aylmer au sud du Quebec

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fortin, L G; Turcotte, R; Pugin, S; Cyr, J F; Picard, F [Centre d' Expertise Hydrique du Quebec, Quebec, PQ (Canada)

    2007-08-15

    The Centre d'Expertise Hydrique du Quebec (CEHQ) manages dams used for flood control, water supply, recreational activities and hydroelectricity in the province of Quebec. This paper addressed the issue of global warming and the impact on the hydrological regime within the next decades. The changes in the hydrological regime may pose a risk of losing the equilibrium between various objectives, identifiable through water management plans. The CEHQ conducted a pilot study for the Saint-Francois and Aylmer reservoirs in order to formulate a method for evaluating the adaptability of currently used management plans to climate change. The project was based on potential climate change scenarios as well as on deterministic and distributed hydrological models. Daily time steps were used to evaluate the hydrological impacts of climate change. The newly developed model makes it possible to evaluate and compare the occurrences where stream flows and water levels exceed critical values. The effectiveness of the management plans in both current and climate change scenarios was evaluated. Preliminary results suggest a possible increase in flood risk and fewer low water level occurrences. It was concluded that climate change will influence the trade-off between different management objectives of the reservoirs. Although adaptation measures may be feasible, it was determined that there is no unique solution to all climate change scenarios. 27 refs., 7 tabs., 12 figs.

  17. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 25 Appendix X - Forecast Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  18. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 26 Appendix Y - Historical Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  19. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 23 Appendix V - Forecast Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  20. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 27 Appendix Z - Forecast Ridging Rate.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  1. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 24 Appendix W - Historical Sea Ice Age.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  2. Climate change-induced impacts on urban flood risk influenced by concurrent hazards

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A. N.; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

    2012-01-01

    hazards, rainfall and sea surge, are both important. The core in the methodology is the application of copula functions as an extension of one-dimensional risk analysis and projections of future climatic changes. The results for Greater Copenhagen indicate that the dependence between the hazards is weak......In coastal regions, several hazards may lead to floods, and if they occur concurrently, the damage will be higher than for the hazards individually. The paper outlines an approach for carrying out a risk analysis with several hazards and applies it on a case study in Greater Copenhagen where two...... and that climate change most likely will not increase the correlation. The overall change in flood return periods over a forecast horizon of 110 years are estimated to decrease by one to three orders of magnitude....

  3. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 17 Appendix P - Forecast Soil Moisture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-04-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  4. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 15 Appendix N - Forecast Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Lowry, Thomas Stephen [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Jones, Shannon M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Walker, La Tonya Nicole [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Roberts, Barry L. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-05-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  5. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 10 Appendix I - Historical Evaporation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  6. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 14 Appendix M - Historical Surface Runoff.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  7. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 8 Appendix G - Historical Precipitation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  8. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 12 Appendix K - Historical Rel. Humidity.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  9. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 16 Appendix O - Historical Soil Moisture.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  10. County-Level Climate Uncertainty for Risk Assessments: Volume 22 Appendix U - Historical Sea Ice Thickness

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Jones, Shannon M; Walker, La Tonya Nicole; Roberts, Barry L; Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2017-06-01

    This report uses the CMIP5 series of climate model simulations to produce country- level uncertainty distributions for use in socioeconomic risk assessments of climate change impacts. It provides appropriate probability distributions, by month, for 169 countries and autonomous-areas on temperature, precipitation, maximum temperature, maximum wind speed, humidity, runoff, soil moisture and evaporation for the historical period (1976-2005), and for decadal time periods to 2100. It also provides historical and future distributions for the Arctic region on ice concentration, ice thickness, age of ice, and ice ridging in 15-degree longitude arc segments from the Arctic Circle to 80 degrees latitude, plus two polar semicircular regions from 80 to 90 degrees latitude. The uncertainty is meant to describe the lack of knowledge rather than imprecision in the physical simulation because the emphasis is on unfalsified risk and its use to determine potential socioeconomic impacts. The full report is contained in 27 volumes.

  11. Les jeux de hasard chez les enfants et les adolescents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Rina; Pinzon, Jorge L

    2012-01-01

    RÉSUMÉ Même si, au Canada, les mineurs n’ont pas le droit de jouer à des jeux de hasard légalisés, les adolescents participent souvent à des jeux de hasard soit légalisés (produits de loterie, casino, terminaux de jeux vidéo), soit autonomes (jeux de cartes, paris sportifs, dés) à la maison et en milieu scolaire. Chez les adultes, le